Jim, I think your estimations on the results of a pandemic are ... incomplete.
Say the worst case scenario happens...say 1/3 of the population of the US
dies.
That is 100-million or so people, out of 300 million or so.We really don't
know what segments of the population H5N1 will attack. In Asia, it's attacking
the very young mostly but they're also the ones that
have the most contact with the infected fowl. The 1918 Spanish Influenza
killed mainly young to middle aged, very healthy people, but that was from
secondary infection that couldn't be treated (today we have antibiotics that
would work on the sequalae of the viral infection). So, we don't know which
parts of the population will be most at risk.
The population of the United States reduced to 200 million would be a terrible
tragedy. But to put it in perspective, the population of the United States
was 200-million in 1965. Since 1965, we've gone to the moon, mapped the human
genome, developed technology that I won' bother to repeat. However, life
in 1965 wasn't exactly terrible, not like the 'dark ages' that bubonic plague
kept Europe in.
Call me an optimist, but should the worst happen I think it would take a
relatively short time (less than 50 years) before the economic growth of
the US (in particular) regains it's former levels. Climbing a mountain the
second time is always easier, since we already know the route. - "Flighter"
JWR Replies: Hmmmm...
I thought that I had been intentionally optimistic in
my estimate of the potential effects. Imagine a situation
where people are panicky because
of an outbreak of an easily transmissible flu strain in the United States--even
in just one region. Who is going to
continue to show up for work? Will the 18 wheelers continue to roll--restocking
the grocery stores? (A situation exacerbated by the inevitable panic buying.)
Will the fuel tankers still dock at American ports? Will supply trucks
be allowed to cross Federally dictated quarantine lines? Will the coal
trains
continue to
arrive at
the
power
plants?
Our
economy
is a
widely distributed web of interdependency. The supply chains are almost
ridiculously long. The modern microwave convenience foods oven come
immediately to mind. Take for example, a bag of Stouffer's
Chicken/Vegetable Stir Fry: Where
are each of ingredients grown or raised?
(The following is mostly conjecture.) The wheat for the pasta (Kansas?),
the Broccoli (California?), the Chicken (Arkansas?), the tomatoes (Chile?),
the bell
peppers
(Texas?), the carrots (Alabama?), the parsley (Oregon?), the water chestnuts
(China?) the white
long grain rice (Louisiana?), the
pineapple and sugar (Hawaii?), the molasses to combine with the sugar to
make brown sugar (Tennessee?) the ginger (Japan?) the sesame oil
and curry powder (India?), the salt (California?), the apple cider vinegar
(Vermont?), the "yeast extract" (a pseudonym for MSG)
(Taiwan?), the corn starch (Iowa?) Consider that each food and spice
transits many states by truck or train or even across oceans in cargo containers
before arriving at the Stouffer Corporation food processing plant in Solon,
Ohio. There, they
are cooked
and flash frozen. OBTW, where
is that plastic bag
made? And where is the ink on the label made? Then those bags are boxed
up in cardboard box that is made in a nearby Ohio town. But wait! The
wood pulp that makes the paper
for the
box comes from trees felled in Washington and milled in Idaho. Then, through
a different
chain of supply-again
transiting umpteen states--the the boxed bags of frozen entrees must be kept
continuously frozen until it makes
it to your
local store
freezer case. An optimist would call this a "modern miracle." As
a ornery pessimist,
I call it a disaster waiting to happen.
With these long chains of supply, I predict that it won't take much to collapse the whole works. Of course, we've never seen something of this magnitude happen to a modern technological society. Our entire society is geared toward driving down costs by choosing the absolute lowest cost components/ingredients, regardless of their place of origin, and then storing as few of them as possible. (The "kan ban" or "just in time" supply system--again to minimize costs.) In the 1930s, more than 20% of the population lived on family farms. Today, 2% of the population feeds the other 98%. And in the 1930s chains of supply were short--the vegetables in the grocery stores mostly came from nearby truck farms.
We have built ourselves a house of cards! Just pray that people keep coming to work out of economic necessity. I agree that the road back to economic recovery following a collapse could potentially be swift, given our level of technology. But if one of the key enabling infrastructures (grid power, telecommunications, or transportation) gets badly broken then our technological sophistication could turn out to be our Achilles' Heel.
