Yesterday on SurvivalBlog (27 Jan.06) , I posted my take on the Iran situation
and correlated it to the precious metals market--and silver in particular.
Since
then I've
had
two
different
readers e-mail to ask why I'm so sure about an
imminent jump in
the price
of silver. Here
is some useful background:
World silver inventories have fallen to less than 600 million ounces--far
below the 1.4 billion ounces that was on hand in 1991. The silver market
is incredibly thin compared to the gold
market. That is one reason that silver prices trend to be more
volatile that gold prices. For perspective, consider that together,
the two big gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
hold around six million ounces of gold. The current ratio of silver
to gold prices is around 57 to one. Hence, if the new silver ETF
(or multiple ETFs) were hold an equivalent value in silver, that
would mean 342 million ounces. That well exceeds the entire
world's silver market inventory! As my maternal grandfather
used to say in his fractured Spanish: "No ay ningun possibilidad." ("There
ain't no way.") This data leads me to the conclusion
that even if the new silver ETF has perhaps only 1/4 the cash value
of the Gold ETFs, then the silver market will still explode.
Mark my words: Even in the absence of international tension with Iran
and other contributing factors, there
will
probably be a huge short squeeze in the silver market in the near future.
The upside potential is astronomical.
