Dear Jim,
In response to this: "(See the movie The Day After Tomorrow regarding
tipping points). Discoveries of animals flash frozen solid with fresh grass
their stomachs points to the possibility of a very fast onset to global climate
change." The Day After Tomorrow was roundly slammed by scientists
and went beyond ludicrous, and the "flash frozen" animals are a myth
that has never been documented. The recovered frozen mammoths have all been
highly putrefied.
At present, the evidence of warming is mixed, with glaciers in Europe, South
America and Antarctica all increasing [in size]. Even with
the current Northern Hemisphere warming trend (Which leveled out a decade ago),
we're still quite cooler than during the Viking Era, when summer temperatures
in Greenland could reach 80 degrees F. Nor is a sea level rise likely--fill
a glass with ice water, let it melt, and the level will drop, because ice is
less dense than water (one of water's unique properties that makes it so useful
as a basis for life). The Earth has sustained life from the Carboniferous,
with double the current CO2 level and 35% oxygen [JWR Adds: Reader B.F. mentioned that the figure is acutally only about 21% oxygen], to deep ice ages with glaciers
as far south as 30 degrees latitude.
That said, SF raises very good points about shifting weather patterns, all
of which are cyclic. Tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, ice storms are all
potential crop killers. Volcanic eruptions and meteorite impacts have affected
the global environment (see The
Year Without A Summer) and are definitely things
to prepare for. The latter would be catastrophic, as the huge population of
Earth depends upon steady movement of harvested crops to keep people fed. (I
covered this as a military strategy in my novel "The
Weapon.")
Even in "normal" climate, I've seen snow flurries in San Antonio
in August, snow on Memorial Day in Chicago, and temperatures as low as 30 degrees
F in rural Ohio and Pennsylvania over July 4th weekend in quite modest hills
(Also T-shirt weather in January, but that's less of a threat). Breaking down
in those hills on a back country road means you might need a fire or warm clothing
at once.
I guesstimate that a local disaster (riot, tornado, earthquake) could last
days, a regional one (hurricane, major earthquake, political collapse) weeks,
and a global disaster (mega-volcano, large meteorite, infrastructure failure)
a year or more. Once we get into that, deaths from starvation are utterly certain
for those not prepared, until population reaches equilibrium with the available
food supply.
This reiterates that one's survival preparations should not be public knowledge.
Starving people have and will kill to feed themselves and their children. This
could be the ugliest of scenarios. - Michael
Z. Williamson
Dear Jim and Family,
This is in response to the post about climate change. I have a degree in geology,
though when I graduated there were no jobs. (Thanks, Bill!). There were some
good points raised, however I have to raise a flag over the "flash frozen
animals" thing: it's more of a myth than a fact. Yes a few mammoths
were found that way but the cause is only speculation. Far more likely they
got drowned by a small tsunami raised by a calving ice sheet. That whole
aspect of the movie showing superfreezing from the middle atmosphere is bunk. The
Day After Tomorrow wasn't a great film (unless you enjoy humor), however
one aspect of it was right: a flood of melted ice water (low salt content)
would either change or stop the Gulf Stream (shifting it South is most likely),
thus suddenly allowing Arctic storms into Europe. Temperatures would drop
considerably, which would actually provide much more habitat for fish but
ruin crops.
During the Little Ice
Age (see Wikipedia) from 1300-1850 AD, climate got very
erratic. Some years were too wet for crops. Some were too dry. Some years it
snowed in July. Some years the glaciers advanced several hundred yards. Other
years they retreated. We're between Ice Ages (and some geologists say that
the Pleistocene isn't over, this is just a minor retreat). For the scientifically
minded, the most recent warming began 20,000 years ago, and picked up a lot
around 8000 years ago, when things really started to melt. A lot of grass grew
and a lot of creatures died out, and the rest of them ran upon grassy plains
where our ancestors hunted them and made cave drawings and early agriculture,
Sumeria, Egypt, Greece. In the present its really dried out and all the grass
is gone. Lebanon has few trees but used to be covered in giant Cedars, which
grow well in wetter climates. Israel was also heavily treed and resembled Eastern
Arizona of today. Yes, rains and wind will probably change and after two years
of studying the Pleistocene (for the purposes of writing a novel about it)
... I don't know if it will get wet during the next ice age's arrival. I really
don't. It may dry out more and promote growth of desert. It will almost certainly
be bad for crops so agriculture is going to take a beating and food supply
will almost certainly be less. That's a real problem for a population of 6.5
billion, and not so great for a population of 2 billion either (if 4.5 billion
die from starvation).
One important piece of history to keep in mind: we survived the last ice age
with little more than stone tools and fire. We'll get through the next one
considerably better off. It's not like we'll forget iron working, and properly
made CD-ROMs (pressed, not burned) last for centuries. Consider how much useful
information will fit in a tiny space with a very basic computer to read them.
That's nothing to sneeze at. Imagine Wikipedia complete with engineering designs
and open source CAD software to help you develop it. Society won't fall very
far down the ladder if that's the case. That engineering knowledge will let
us continue to make firearms, steam engines, computers, electricity, food storage,
farming, genetic engineering, navigation, etc, without having to resort to
bows and arrows or wattle and daub houses. It's very unlikely to drop below
1950s technology, we'll just have to get by without cheap oil.
If climate change starts heading for return of the ice age, which is still
possible, the way to tell is rapid growth of glaciers in formerly dry northeastern
rockies. That's where the ice sheets began last time, according to best current
data. We think they began due to melting of the polar ice, which winds swept
up and deposited snow on these 19,000 foot elevation plateaus (currently dry).
The ice built up and flowed down slope, increasing reflected sunlight and eventually
cooling the globe. It's possible that while the ice caps remained wet (rather
than icy), the ice age was already beginning.
Keep in mind there are at least 34 identified feedback loops responsible for
Earth's climate, and that's without involving Divine Intervention. Eight of
these loops are based on orbit, volcanics, and magnetic field (plus solar storms),
all of which have a huge impact on climate. Based on the Milancovic cycle we're
about due to begin the next Ice Age, a point made in 1970 is that Global Cooling
would kill us all (sound familiar?). Warming is curious. Higher CO2 levels
are unprecedented. But the climate has been much warmer than
it is now and everything didn't die then, so I don't expect it will die now
either. Plants and animals will end up migrating to suitable habitat or dying
out. That's how it goes. And apparently there's quite a few new species trying
to come into being but they keep dying out due to human interference to "preserve" something
or other green nonsense. Best not to get worked up about it.
The tropics did not require cold weather gear, however ice was in tropical
environments, around subtropical plants because the ice moved faster than it
could melt during certain points of its advance stage. There's enough evidence
to support this quirky image: 70'F Florida type weather and plants next to
ice sheet a few dozen feet away. Yes, that's really weird, but there's evidence
to support this. The nice thing about ice ages is there's generally time to
get out of the way, same with volcanic eruptions. You get plenty of warning.
If things change, you can always built it yourself, or adapt otherwise. Everything
flows from the will to live and the fortitude to endure hardship to accomplish
that. Best, - InyoKern
James,
I'm tired of everyone playing the "fear" card in regards
to global climate change. Man's ability to adapt to different situations
and in fact thrive in them should not be underestimated. The fact that
man has lived in harsh northern environments has led to the development
of countless tools, technologies, and techniques that have benefited
all of mankind. In reference to the comments made by SF in Hawaii,
the frozen woolly mammoth couldn't put on a coat or jacket, we can.
Also I don’t know that an autopsy was ever actually performed
on that animal, I think everyone just assumed it froze to death but
as far as I know it might have died of an aneurysm! If ocean levels
ever rise fifteen feet I will personally go to SF's house and move
his belongings to higher ground. I do not believe there is enough water
on the planet to raise ocean levels anywhere close to fifteen feet.
At any rate it is downright foolish to try and take anything from the
movie "The Day After Tomorrow" other than entertainment,
and even the that was marginal. The climate will change, is changing,
and has always changed, the part mankind plays in all of this is miniscule
at best, and very likely totally insignificant. Whatever changes lie
ahead we will overcome them, that's why we are all here; to overcome
whatever hardships we may face. We will face these challenges with
strength, faith, truth, ingenuity, wisdom, justice, and communities
such as this on SurvivalBlog. If people want to do something for the
environment that's fine, but don’t be so foolish as to think
you are going to prevent global climate change. Reduce, reuse, and
recycle, these are good things no matter what your political stripe,
and buying quality instead of junk is always wise for the survivor.
- A. Friendly
