«-- Odds 'n Sods: | Main | Letter Re: Resurgence of Movies and Television Shows with Survival Themes --»
Letter Re: Five Years to Just 50% of the Current U.S. Oil Supply
Dear Jim and Family,
I have bad news. An
analyst with an oil background did a study on the oil producing nations and
found they would stop exporting 50% of their
oil in around 5 years, averaging
decline of 10%/year to total world oil exports. The USA is 60% dependent on
imported oil, and is currently growing 7% of our needs via ethanol (corn).
As we're in the process of losing Mexico at 15% per year and will see them
encounter some social breakdown in 11-17 months time due to loss of exports
and tax revenue
for their social services, we're going to see two hard blows to our energy
supply and our economy.
Currently the Average Joe driver uses around 10 gallons of fuel per week. In
five years he's going to have to adjust to just 4 gallons per week, and that
number
will decline along with our domestic oil supply, in decline since 1970.
There are two ways to deal with this problem. (1) Ignore it until you get major
shortages causing social collapse, which is expensive for everyone, including
rich people and the government. or (2) Institute fuel rationing
and price stabilization. I hate that that sort of thing is an option, but its
that or total collapse.
The government won't get paid taxes if there's total collapse, much less keep
all its toys running. The rich people who own the government won't like it
either, as
it makes them targets for kidnapping and closes their favorite restaurants
and ruins the service. Thus, option 2 is far more likely in my opinion.
What can you expect? Either next year or the year after, following some event
that briefly causes a massive price surge (say up to $7/gallon over two weeks),
the public will demand a solution. The Socialists, sorry Ruling
Peoples Progressive Liberal Party (aka Democrats) will get themselves a law
demanding gas rationing.
The current president will refuse it, but they'll cajole an overwhelming majority
or wait for the next president to sign it into law, which is certainly possible.
What will it be like? Probably around 9 gallons per person, per week, based
on driver's license. Spouses can share and it motivates people to either sell
their SUVs
or carpool with them, which effectively doubles or triples their fuel economy
per person.
Consider that a 20 mpg Ford Explorer with four people inside is effectively
getting 80 mpg per person. Sneaky, isn't it? And they can combine their rations
to
fill
up
the SUV, thus keeping it on the road and keeping their jobs, even if it takes
a bit longer to get to work. As time passes and the ration gets smaller, motivation
to buy more efficient vehicles or simpler lives and work locations becomes
a more serious pressure and the economy gets more fuel and location efficient.
Additionally, expect some blackouts and more screaming and yelling by the public
before utility prices rise enough to keep the lights on and motivate people
to conserve. Since the price of oil and gas are going to rise anyway, it can't
be helped. If things go very well, we'll have something sustainable
in about 10 years. If they don't, well, then be sure to visit the range to
keep up your
skills and stock up on food. This is going to be long haul and there's no bouncing
back from the end of cheap oil, not exactly. We'll just get better solar panels
and used to living on a lot less energy, just like people got used to living
without muscle cars. Its the future and it can't be helped. Sorry for the news.
This is awfully soon and not exactly abrupt, but very expensive and demoralizing.
Best, - InyoKern
