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Letter Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure
Jim,
With all due respect (to Chris in Utah and the folks cited by Computerworld),
"If
a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people" is
a fantasy, because it is based upon the 1918-1919
flu's
death-rate of 2.5%, and also that the United States' population of the time
was around one-third of the present number.
It was said that, in "normal" times, flu killed some 0.25% of those
afflicted. In 1918-1919, that figure skyrocketed to 2.5%. Triple the
U.S.'s population (in regard to the earlier 20th Century figure), and the post-WW1's
death-rate goes to slightly over 2 million. But, as I indicated earlier,
that's with the 2.5% rate.
In Indonesia and elsewhere, the death rate [for H5N1] is not
even close to 2.5%. It is more like 53% to 60%. I made some further
calculations (2.5
x 20,
for starters, although that is a rather conservative figure), an came up with
the following figure[s], that the death rate, in the U.S. alone (675,000 x
3 x 20), will be more along the lines of 40,500,000 (say a round 40 million,
just to keep things tidy.)
Anybody who is of the opinion that a mere 1.7 million--approximately 3 times
the
1918-19 rate--will be in their shrouds is living in Fantasyland. That-all is
based on percentage that catches the flu, not the entirety of the U.S. population.
Regards,
- Ben
