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Notes from JWR:
I just got word that the US House of Representatives voted down the $700 billion
USD Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Bill. I'm glad to see that it was
defeated. There is simply no proper substitute for allowing the credit market
to correct itself, by working the bad debt out of the system. Propping up the
system would
have made the eventual reckoning day even worse. There will probably be some
substitute
or "bipartisan compromise" legislation
offered,
but don't
fall
for
it. If it extracts money from your wallet to bail out the banks from Credit
Default Swap derivatives and
other toxic debt, then it is bad legislation.
Please contact your congresscritters to let them know your position on the
legislation.
On news of the defeat of the TARP bill, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
lost 555 points (more than 5% of its value) in just one day on Monday. I expect
further declines in the DJIA this week, perhaps dropping below the psychological 10,000 threshold, regardless of the political posturing and promises on Capitol
Hill. I hope that SurvivalBlog readers took my advice and long ago got
out of stocks and other US Dollar-denominated investments. Buy productive
farm land (that can double as a retreat), guns, tools, and other tangibles.
Our
special thanks to Mike in Malaysia, who sent us a very generous 10
Cent Challenge subscription
contribution via PayPal, with the note: "Thanks for your great
service. This is a
prepayment for the next four years and for the last year of knowledge!"
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Letter Re: A Successful Search for a Survival Retreat Property
Hi Jim,
we wanted to share our story with your readers who may not have been able to
acquire their retreats yet, and worry they never will. We hope our story
will inspire them....
We sold our home in record time recently (big shock) and then went on a major
hunt to find our "perfect spot"...we have been preparing and stocking
up and looking to find the area we wanted to buy retreat in and start in earnest
to live self-sufficiently, hoping and praying when the time came it would all
come together.
We had very specific parameters: minimum of 40 acres, very private and secluded
but yet close to a small community, a year round creek or spring fed pond was
of high importance, and of course our house had to sell in this terrible market
and for a good price to reduce debts and leave enough money for a new location...not
too much to ask for eh?
well, this is what we wanted to share: We found a place that had been in a farmers
family for multiple generations, had numerous barns, fencing, a well, and a year
round creek, everything we
were looking for already there and in great working order! It was off the beaten
path by about seven miles, but visible from the country road that led
to it. Still a beautiful property and reasonably priced for the 40 acres.
We made an offer on it and since I felt very uneasy with the level of exposure
from the road (probably wouldn't bother most folks, but I am extremely private.)
I went and sat on the porch and prayed, asking God that if this was not where
we were supposed to be to please, please, let me know quick and give
me a big sign my husband will recognize, LOL,
he loved the property as it met all our parameters, (except my extreme privacy
need)
and would be upset to know
I was still shopping in my mind.
Well, the phone rang shortly thereafter and our offer was being hijacked by a
family member [of the seller] who knew we just sold a home in a desirable area,
so
the
price
that they gave
us was now a lot higher, among other demands and (this in a major "buyers
market"!).
We
were running out of options and needed to move asap so I worried we may have
to end up taking the offer if nothing else came along very quickly.
the next morning a cousin called at 6 a.m. and said that she had woke up for
no reason at 4 a.m. and had [remembered] the perfect place for us, though it
wasn't
on
the
market
and
it
was only a rundown house on three acres, but tucked away perfectly. He made
a
couple phone calls on our behalf and later that afternoon we went to view and
talk to the owners...just so happened that they had just talked of selling to
move closer to a city due to high fuel costs of commuting, we made a deal with
them on the spot and closed a few days later!....well....we knew that even with
just a few well set up acres we could do just fine when the SHTF.
The second
phone
call on our behalf was to the owner of 80+ acres adjoining our 'new' place. These
are multigenerational family properties and rarely get sold outside of family....the
timing was perfect...she also had just decided to sell off those acres....she
told us she knew it was God's will for us to buy it when the phone rang that
morning with a request to buy "a couple extra acres" to go with the
old farm house adjoining her property. That was the second sign from God. Then
we went to view her acres which has a very old falling apart barn on it and as
we walked inside there were numerous cans of storage food (from a
company
often
mentioned in SurvivalBlog, in
great
shape)
laying
around. We were told there is a "whole gully full of the stuff, cause the
old guy
thought the world was gonna come to an end every morning." How wild is that?
Sign #3 that we were definitely in the right place!
We met with owner and her attorney and although were hoping for extra five acres
but walked
out with an agreement on 80 acres and an option for more. We are grateful and
amazed. We wanted to share our good fortune so that others know it can happen
for them,
even with odds against them. You gotta have faith!
We relish the idea of putting together a wonderful place to live for the rest
of our lives and to be able to offer sanctuary for our family and select friends
in good times and bad, and and hope we have enough time to teach our grown children
and grandchildren self-sufficiency of a different sort in this unstable world.
Thank
you for all the work you do and the information you share with the rest
of us! God Bless, - KW
« Letter Re: Recommendation for Water BOB Bathtub Water Storage Bladder |Main| Letter Re: A Successful Search for a Survival Retreat Property »
Letter Re: Storing Multipurpose Castile Soaps
Jim,
Thanks for your warnings and all the help your novel and blog are to us.
In reference to the recent mention of Dr.
Bronner's soaps, I just wanted to pass along some tips on Kirk's Castile
coconut soap. It doesn't have a lot of added chemicals. I can purchase it
at Woodman's for 79 cents a bar.[JWR Adds: It is also available
at reasonable prices from several Internet vendors if bought
in full cases.] It can be used as shampoo as well as to brush your teeth.
People don't believe me when I tell them it's been my shampoo for years.
It's better for your teeth than any toothpaste that has glycerin. It can
be used as dish soap also. Why buy many products to store when this one is
inexpensive and has many uses? Staying clean is so important to our health.
Praying for God's mercy, - Deb in Wisconsin
« Letter Re: Expect Delays and Confusion During FDIC Settlements |Main| Letter Re: Storing Multipurpose Castile Soaps »
Letter Re: Recommendation for Water BOB Bathtub Water Storage Bladder
Dear Mr. Rawles,
All the stories recently about power failure and storing water in bathtubs
have encouraged me to write to you about the WaterBOB.
It's a heavy duty plastic bladder that you put in your bathtub and then fill
with clean water from the tap. It comes with a siphon so that removing the
water is easy. IMO, The greatest advantage of this product is that the water
remains potable, even though a bathtub is generally not suitable for storing
drinking water. The WaterBOB holds 100 gallons.
Prices have increased substantially since I first bought mine a year or so
ago, but if purchased in quantities of 20+, the price drops significantly and
shipping is minimal. A group could order together, or someone might want extras
for gifts.
I recently ordered a quantity shipment for family birthdays, Christmas gifts,
some upcoming anniversaries, and wedding/housewarming gifts. It's a pretty
sure thing that most folks don't already have one!
Thanks so much for all you do. And our prayers continue for your Memsahib's
complete recovery. Sincerely, - SaddleTramp
« Letter Re: Making Alternatives to Commercial Chemical Light Sticks |Main| Letter Re: Recommendation for Water BOB Bathtub Water Storage Bladder »
Letter Re: Expect Delays and Confusion During FDIC Settlements
Jim:
If Michael A. in Seattle was surprised by his little run-in with the FDIC,
I urge him and others to research what happened in Texas during the S&L crisis. That's within fairly recent memory, just about 20 years ago, not like
the Great Depression [which has faded from memory. And this was when the entire
rest of the nation's banking system was largely intact but the S&Ls in
Texas (and a few surrounding states) caused all the fuss.
Common problems included:
1. Inability to get at checking or savings accounts for months at a time.
2. Inability to get employers to immediately turn off Direct Deposit, resulting
in some paychecks simply vanishing forever.
3. Inability to pay bills even though technically you had money, at least according
to the FDIC. (This caused numerous foreclosures despite the person never having
missed a payment before and having the cash but unable to access it.)
One common result of #2 above in Texas is a higher than usual refusals to take
Direct Deposit. I don't take it because of what I saw happen then. Recently
on a trip to my local bank, a manager walked by as the teller was servicing
my request and saw that it was a real check. She immediately suggested I get
Direct Deposit. I replied "The S&L debacle left many scars." She
looked at me then smiled, nodded, and went on her way. She knew that arguing
with me about it was pointless.
On another point, a fellow I know was recently cleaning out his grandmother's
house after her death. Everywhere they looked they found cash ranging from
ones to fives to tens to twenties. It was in drawers, hidden in seat cushions,
etc. He knew she did this and he always thought she was off her rocker but
in the last year he's changed his attitude. Now he says "I think I understand
why she didn't trust the banks."
There's a sea change coming in American attitudes. That sea change is going
to worsen the economy as people decide spending is not the sole purpose in
life. And no bailout is going to change this. Life in these United States is
about to become far more frugal, one way or another. - Dave R.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Expect Delays and Confusion During FDIC Settlements »
Letter Re: Making Alternatives to Commercial Chemical Light Sticks
Hi Jim,
I'm a long time reader of the blog and I liked your novel. I have been amazed
at your ability to acutely foresee coming events. More and more yours is
the first
site that I read every day. I noticed your article on glow sticks and I have
an excellent upgrade for your readers.
Forget using glow sticks and graduate to Krill
lights. Now glow sticks still
have their place, but 98% of the time this will be a better item to use. I
have purchased several of these over the years and have always been impressed.
They work like giant [electro-luminescent] Indiglo
watches. They run for what
seems like forever on AA batteries, comes in different colors including infrared
(IR),
they have
360 and 180 degree models, flashing models are available, all at greatly reduced
cost verses equivalent
glow
sticks. I am rough on equipment and have yet to destroy one of these tough
little lights. Your friend, - Kevin S.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Making Alternatives to Commercial Chemical Light Sticks »
Odds 'n Sods:
Some more newspaper gleanings, most coming from our Economic editor: Citigroup
to buy Wachovia banking
operations -- Bailout
Failure Will Cause US To Crash (For full disclosure, I would append the
headline with:
"But
Bailout Success Will
Cause
Dollar to Crash") -- UK
Banker Leaps To Death In Front Of Express Train -- Fed
Pumps Further $630
Billion Into Financial System -- House
defeats $700 Billion financial markets bailout
o o o
Hawaiian K. suggested an
article over at Treehugger on aquaponics
o o o
Reader FFF spotted this: How
China has created a new slave empire
o o o
Mister DC sent this: What
if disaster struck? Counties, schools update responses. ("How many corpses
can fit in your local ice rink?")
o o o
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the BBC reports: Bradford & Bingley
bank facing nationalisation
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Mostly the thing I see is the pure lack of planning -- people feel secure
in their homes and think that it will never happen to them, and then it does".
Tom Hazelwood, quoted by Laura Rowley in Flirting
with Disaster: Preparation
is Key for Potential Catastrophes
« What Will You Do When Your Stored Food Runs Out?, by Woodsman |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
Today we present another entry for Round 18 of the SurvivalBlog
non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:
First Prize: The writer of the best contributed
article in the next 60 days will be awarded two transferable Front
Sight "Gray" Four Day Training Course Certificates. This
is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint
Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day
civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles
Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing
Round 18 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us
your entries--either for this round or for the next. Remember that articles
that relate practical "how
to" skills
for survival will have an advantage in the judging.
« Letter Re: Investing in Foreign Currency CDs |Main| Notes from JWR: »
What Will You Do When Your Stored Food Runs Out?, by Woodsman
What Will You Do When Your Stored Food Runs Out?, by Woodsman
Among the multitude of preparations conducted by would-be survivalists, gardening
is often minimized in value compared to the physical purchases of beans,
bullets, and band-aids. However, in any long-term TEOTWAWKI event, gardening
would probably become nearly the sole means of subsistence for your family
and as such, it is critical that you make the efforts now to learn the ins
and outs of how to produce a year's worth of fruit and vegetables from your
own land.
Prior to moving to our retreat, my family lived in a moderate-sized city and
neither of my parents grew up with any genuine country-life experience, be
it with gardening or anything else to do with growing your own food. Due to
God's providence, we fell into company with a master gardener, himself concerned
about world events, and over the first winter after we moved to our retreat
we jointly plotted how the first garden would be planted. Since then, we have
learned how to consistently produce enough vegetables to carry us through a
year, and many lessons were learned the hard way. The following article sums
up many of those lessons as well as other important principles. It is my hope
that you would carefully consider them in regards to your own garden.
First, A Word on the Importance Of Gardening
Gardening ought to become a priority for everyone. No matter how many buckets
of grain you have stored away, no matter how many cans of freeze-dried food
are in your closet, you can count on running out eventually, and the food supply
grid may not yet be restored. A large garden, plus orchards of fruits like
raspberries, strawberries, and apples, and hopefully a few chickens, pigs,
goats, and cows, will supply you with a large portion of the food necessary
to survive.
Those of you who are, like us, preparing on a shoestring budget, can go a long
way in stocking up by growing your own vegetables and canning, dehydrating,
or otherwise storing them for future use. It will be much cheaper and in many
cases, healthier as well (and WTSHTF, you'll need all the health you can get!).
This year we put a lot of effort into the garden, and by the end of this season
we will have two years of canned vegetables and fruits stored away. Not only
will this leave us with our current goal of a complete, well rounded, one extra
year's food supply, but it will also safeguard us in case next year's garden
does not produce as well. Two years ago, we canned two year's worth of carrots,
and last year, we hardly harvested any. That extra year of canned carrots saw
us through that lean year until now, when we once again have a large quantity
of carrots that we will be soon canning in massive quantities.
Even if a major TEOTWAWKI event never occurs in our lifetimes, we can all clearly
see the faltering economy and the skyrocketing prices of food. We can begin
combating inflation right now by taking control over what we eat and growing
it ourselves. My family of six lives on a food budget of less than $200/month,
and we eat heartily with no lack of good tasting, nutritional food.
Garden Location
Your garden should be located where it will obtain full sunshine. It should
not be in a low area with poor water drainage, or on a relatively steep slope,
and should be convenient for frequent access.
.
Summer Fallowing
After the initial confusion and frustration over when to plant seeds, how
many to plant, and how far apart to place them, the main lesson we learned
the first
year was the value of consistently summer fallowing a new piece of ground.
Throughout our first garden season, we battled quack grass and numerous other
weeds that filled our entire plot. Looking back, I remember that we did a
very poor job of weeding and the amount of vegetables obtained suffered greatly
because of being choked out by weeds. During that season, however, we used
a garden tractor pulling a small disc to regularly run over a larger garden
plot that we planned to use the next season. Every time the weeds began to
show above the surface, we took the disc over them. Of course, it wasn't
until
the next year that we truly realized the benefits of this technique. When
the next season rolled around and several weeks had passed since the first
seeds
were planted, my family was delighted to discover that there was almost no
quack grass in the entire garden, and the only weeds to deal with were less
noxious ones like pigweed, lamb's quarters, and shepherd's purse. Those were
easy to chop off with a hoe several times per week.
A year ago, we took a shortcut and planted quite a few fruit trees into an
area that we had not kept well fallowed, and within a month or two we were
once again reminded of the value of keeping the weeds tilled down for a season
previous to planting. Grass and thistles sprang up everywhere and even now
we are forced to work hard to keep on top of everything. Please, if you're
going to garden in a new plot, fallow it regularly for a year before planting
there. If you have to, do like we did and plant in one (albeit weedy) spot
while you prepare another section for next season.
Extend the Season
Unless you live far enough south that you can garden practically the entire
year round, it is important to take certain steps to extend your season, allowing
a head start on planting to ensure a virtual guarantee of a harvest—prior
to the frost! There are many varied ways of doing this, but most methods involve
some form of greenhouse and starting seeds early indoors. If your house has
plenty of windows on the southern side, and plenty of ledges for trays of seeds
to sit on, it is a great way to extend the season all the way back to February
for the longer-season transplantable plants like tomatoes, peppers, herbs,
and the like. An attached greenhouse is convenient and will have much more
space.
When the ground is beginning to thaw but the weather is still cold, a hoop
house works well. Ours consists of a framed 12'x8' wall and rebar extending
out behind
that in multiple half circles, connected by horizontal pieces of rebar. Six
mil plastic is placed over the rebar and nailed down with slats to 2x8s running
the length of the structure. A barrel wood stove is used to keep it warm on
the cold nights. Once the temperature is warm enough, we remove the plastic.
In the fall, we often decide to reinstall the plastic as a temporary shelter
for tools and implements that we're using, and to allow more time for any vegetables
that are not fully ripe.
Stagger Production
A key to not becoming overwhelmed by all the produce is to stagger production.
Corn can be planted in one-week intervals; beans can be staggered by at least
a couple weeks, and peas can be planted very early so as to ensure their harvest
prior to the larger crops. Root crops, such as onions, carrots, and potatoes
can wait until the very end of the garden season to be harvested.
Mulching
Mulch is important in a garden for several reasons. Number one, it retains
moisture in the ground so any rain you do receive is used for maximum benefit,
and it is not necessary to personally water as frequently. Second, mulch will
help keep soil compaction down to a minimum. Third, it will add organic matter
to your soil to help replace the nutrients that are drawn out over the years
of leaving the soil bare to the elements and harvesting plants from it. To
a certain extent, mulching also keeps weed levels reduced but you need to make
sure you use a thick enough layer or else you will regret it later. When hay
or straw mulch is put on too thinly, the weeds will come up as numerous as
ever and it is much more difficult to hoe and nearly impossible to roto-till
without clogging the tines on the tiller.
Watering Your Garden
As I mentioned above, your garden will hopefully be located near a water source.
This can be your well, but in our case we have been told that our well water
is not good for the soil as it will leach nutrients out from it. Thankfully
we have a good-sized body of water a couple hundred yards from the garden.
It's not ideal to have the garden located that far away, but it frosts much
earlier down in the valley so we are safer to do it on top of the hill. However,
we do plan on plowing up a smaller plot next to the water and planting the
shorter-season vegetables and root crops down there. If electricity failed
and we couldn't operate our pump system, at least we wouldn't have to carry
buckets as far. (By the way, stock up on as many 5 gallon pails as you can
afford, it seems there is a use for them all the time and you will never have
too many.)
Currently, we have a two horsepower electric pump at the water, and a two inch
black poly pipe running from there up the hill. Various smaller pipes extend
from that central pipe into different areas of the garden, with fittings that
allow one-inch hoses to be inserted for further reach. Of course, our system
isn't exactly a self sufficient setup unless it was run by solar or wind power.
That is certainly possible, but with electricity currently remaining cheap
and in abundant supply you will still be able to beat the effects of inflation
by a long shot.
Lots of Water!
Everything should be kept well watered. Don't allow anything to become really
dry, especially the peppers and tomatoes. If they begin to wither, it's too
late for them or at least your harvest will be significantly delayed. Believe
me, I know what I'm talking about from experience! Just stick your finger in
the dirt and if it doesn't feel moist. You know what to do. When you do water,
it's not necessary to do it every day unless it is extremely hot and the soil
dries out rapidly. You need to water the plants heavily, so that it soaks down
for at least three or four inches. That means probably an inch of water or
more at a time. Don't worry about it puddling. You'll figure it out after you
do it a few times and keep checking the moisture level with your finger. Water
is the life-giver, and without it, your garden will be slowed, yield will decrease,
and your plants may even die. Don't hesitate to use a lot! Like our master-gardening
friend said, you'll be sick of watering long before you put enough water on
to drown the plant. Of course, you must be careful with smaller plants but
the larger ones tend to be plenty hardy.
Storing Food
You will need between 150 and 200 canning jars per person to store a year's
worth of vegetables and other food items. In addition, you should stock up
on as many canning lids as possible because it is much more difficult to preserve
large quantities of vegetables without them. It is possible to reuse them but
they tend to not seal consistently, so it is best to use new ones. Make sure
you have a wood stove handy to be able to can on if the power is out.
Of course, the other methods of sustainable food storage include using a root
cellar and dehydration. The short bibliography at the end of this article gives
references to detailed books on these subjects, which are beyond the scope
of this paper.
Seed Saving
The only sustainable way to garden is to save your own seeds every year. Although
seed saving is relatively basic, it does involve some forethought and planning
on your part. First, you must plant only open-pollinated seeds. The hybrids
that most stores carry will not stay true to their kind. There are many sources
of open pollinated “heirloom” seeds, but our favorite is currently
Baker Creek, found on the web at Rareseeds.com. While you're at it, get
an extra two or three years worth of seed in case your garden doesn't do well,
or for bartering purposes.
It is easiest to plant only one variety of each vegetable to prevent cross-pollination,
but you will probably want to hedge your bets by planting more than that. It
is much more labor-intensive to do so, but possible. I highly recommend Suzanne
Ashworth's book, “Seed to Seed,” for detailed information on preventing
cross-pollination, harvesting, and seed storage. Depending on what plant it
is, you will use hand pollination, time distancing (such as planting an early
variety of corn, and then a week or two later longer season variety), and physical
distancing although most plants require such far separation that it is impractical
for the homesteader.
Seeds, once dried, are best stored in air-tight glass containers in a cool,
dark area. As long as the electricity still functions, this means a freezer
or refrigerator. Prior to planting, you can test the germination rate of your
seeds by placing a small amount in a moist paper towel that is placed inside
a plastic bag and set in a warm portion of your house—in our case that
means near the wood stove Wait a few days and check it to see how many seeds
successfully germinated. If only half of them did, and you are not able to
purchase new seeds, you will have to plant twice as many.
Diligence
It may seem obvious, but plain-old diligence is the key to raising your food
supply. Observe the “windows of opportunity” and take advantage
of them accordingly. You need to research ahead about how to do it, order your
seeds in plenty of time, plant the seeds as soon as it is the right “window
of opportunity” for planting, and then weed your garden daily. No, daily
weeding isn't a chore when you keep up with it, but it definitely becomes a
pain when you leave it for very much longer. Just run through with a hoe for
a half hour or so a day and you will go a long ways in keeping a well-maintained,
eye-pleasing vegetable garden.
Don't put anything off until later, because with most garden-related duties
they must be done as soon as you discover it is necessary. There is a certain
period of time within which you must plant. There is a certain time wherein
you need to harvest the corn. Beans will be too big if you leave them too long.
Potato bugs will kill your plants if you don't pick them off right away and
keep them off. Carrots won't grow very large if you don't thin them while they're
small. For everything, there is a time and a season and life runs a lot smoother
when you stick within the parameter of those windows.
My family uses a simple technique to stay oriented and getting everything accomplished
on time, and it's something that I recommend to everybody I talk to. Keep
a running list of everything that needs to be done. One column on the page
could list longer-term projects like “build chicken coop,” or “dig
root cellar,” and the other side will be filled with smaller items such
as “pick beans,” “weed strawberries,” “give goats
water,” or “put away the pitchfork.” Even the smallest item
is placed on the list and then crossed off as someone completes the task. In
the mornings, I'll often look at the list and place a little star beside the
items that are most critical to get done that day, and we will focus our energy
on those. The younger boys will be assigned a few of the easier projects, and
the rest of us will tackle the difficult or otherwise labor intensive ones.
It's rewarding to come in at night and review the list and see all the rows
crossed off. The next day, we might take a new sheet of paper and write down
a few new things we just thought of and also include the projects we did not
complete the day before. List keeping is simple, takes a small amount of time,
and does wonders in keeping everyone productive all day long.
How Do You Get It All Done?
It may seem overwhelming trying to keep up with a garden large enough to supply
your family with a year's worth of food, but as long as you tend to it each
day, it isn't as difficult as one might think. If you have children who are
old enough to understand instructions, you can put them to work doing some
of the more mundane tasks while you take on the more advanced projects that
require precision. I'm 17 years old, and my 14 year old brother and I actually
do most of the garden maintenance (although Dad helps a lot with watering frequently
in the mornings while we do chores). The two younger boys help with various
projects that need more help, such as picking and snapping beans or cutting
up apples in preparation for making applesauce. Mom mostly handles the indoor
work; primarily cooking the meals to keep us going, canning the thousand or
more jars we do each year, and processing other foods in preparation for freezing.
Of course, if you are serious about survival, it is important to actually live
the self-sufficient life. This means severely reducing trips to town, for both
shopping and various extraneous events. Get rid of the television, and minimize
time spent on non-productive entertainment. We are a homeschooling family,
and that gives us a flexible schedule with plenty of time to focus on what
is important to us.
If you live in town and can't do everything you would like to, you can still
eliminate wasteful uses of time, plant every spare space you have, and read
many good how-to books. You can visit the country to practice outdoor skills,
and help out a farmer to get some good exercise.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I want to encourage everyone to begin gardening on their own,
regardless of location or how much land they own. Even if you are in an apartment,
you can grow plants on a balcony and begin to learn the techniques of growing
food.
Food is necessary for our survival, and nothing makes more sense than controlling
your own food—because when you control your own food, you are free from
the chaos that most of the country may soon face. You will not only be able
to continue to live relatively comfortably long after your stored food runs
out; you will become part of the solution to the crisis. You will be there
to show other people how to provide for their own families.
Now is the time to learn how to garden, not after TEOTWAWKI. Go out in your
backyard, till out a plot, and get busy!
Reference Books
-Square
Foot Gardening, by Mel Bartholomew/ (for smaller gardens)
-Seed
to Seed, by Suzanne Ashworth and Kent Wheely
-Preserving
Food Without Freezing or Canning, by the Gardeners and Farmers
of Centre Terre Vivante
-Encyclopedia
of Country Living, by Carla Emery/ (The best general reference
we've found, on gardening but also on everything else related to homesteading)
-Root
Cellaring, by Mike and Nancy Bubel
« Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn |Main| What Will You Do When Your Stored Food Runs Out?, by Woodsman »
Letter Re: Investing in Foreign Currency CDs
James,
Today the dollar posted its largest one-day decline against the euro since
that currency was created.
I am rebalancing my investment portfolio to account for the market’s
recent gyrations – and the fact that our government is attempting to
make the dollar even more worthless than it currently is. Several years ago
I was in a similar mood and found EverBank, a bank that issues a number of
CD products tied to foreign currencies (effectively getting your saving out
of dollars into something that’s not dollar-denominated).
I am not preparing for a complete meltdown or the end of civilization: I am
preparing for a prolonged economic depression. My main goal is to preserve
the value of my capital while earning at least some return on my investments.
My investment portfolio is modest, but large enough that I can’t practically
or safely (from a diversification standpoint) convert it into tangible assets.
I have as much gold and equities as I’m comfortable holding, so I am
looking for safe places to spread my remaining cash. At least to some extent,
I’m going to use world currencies to do this. They could very well get
dragged down in a global depression but in any event would probably fare better
and recover faster than the dollar.
EverBank’s
site for the CD products offers both single-currency and multi-currency
CDs. Any readers with investment portfolios large enough to truly diversify
should take a close look at one or more of these products.
One more thing… When choosing to deal with an unknown bank, make sure
they are FDIC insured by using the
FDIC’s bank finder: Whether the FDIC will even exist in coming years
is debatable, but at least if an institution is FDIC insured, you know it’s
not a bunch of Nigerian “419” scammers with a fake bank-like web
site. The FDIC does insure CDs denominated in other currencies, but does not protect
against a rise in the value of the dollar against your chosen currencies. That
is, much like SIPC [Securities
Investor Protection Corporation] insurance, the FDIC protects you against malfeasance
on the part of the bank but not against
investment risk. Best, - Matt R.
JWR Replies: Although I advocate in investing tangible barterable first,
I do recommend diversifying out of US dollar-denominated investments. Everbank
has a good reputation but keep in mind that there is risk when investing with any fiat
currency. (In our generation the national currencies are all unredeemable for
precious metals and they all suffer, from one degree to another to the gradual
gnawings of inflation.) The best time to transition from dollars to another
currency is naturally when the dollar has a short term spurt of strength. Watch
the US Dollar
Index (USDI) closely, and dump your dollars during a good week. (The recent
dollar bounce, for example, was a good opportunity. There will likely be others,
but in my estimation the USDI is headed south of 72 soon, and the dollar might
remain relatively weak for many years.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Investing in Foreign Currency CDs »
Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn
Jim,
I'd like to add one piece of advice to the
"Greenhorn" reader who hasn't gotten started, but knows he must.
After getting the basics you listed, he should start on a food preparedness
action plan to feed his family
in a crisis. The blueprint for all that is in the great preparedness course
you created. I know it's not cheap, but the mistakes it helps you avoid will
more than offset the cost, even for someone on a tight budget. And for that
reader who wrote in to share his story, it's free. Just send me his address,
Jim, and we'll immediately send him a complete Rawles
Gets You Ready" preparedness course with our compliments. Best,
- Jake Stafford, Arbogast
Publishing
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn »
Odds 'n Sods:
"BeePrepared" wrote us to recommend the Hippo
Roller as a method
to transport large amounts of water without a vehicle.
o o o
Cheryl (our Economic Editor) sent us this raft of news and commentary. The
first item should not come as a surprise to you, since I've
been warning about the derivatives threat for years: Bailout
Secret: To Prevent $68 Trillion Derivatives Collapse -- Financial
TEOTWAWKI: LIBOR TED Spread Flashes Trouble. ("I don't want to name
names, ... but there is a silent bank run going on. There are no lines in the
street, but it is a run nevertheless. It is large investment
funds and corporations quietly pulling their money from some of the best banks
in the country.") -- Credit
Markets Hit By Cat 5 Financial Hurricane -- Greenspan
Calls For Action On Financial Crisis -- The
Real Reason Behind The Rush (The Fed is close to illiquidity) -- This "Greater
Depression" Could Last A Decade -- Markets
Face Major Crash If Bailout Fails -- Economists
Against The Paulson Plan -- Wachovia
Explores Sale With Wells Fargo, Banco Santender & Citi
o o o
Eric sent this from The Telegraph: Bailout failure 'will cause US crash'
o o o
Jack B. sent us this news story from Nanny State Britannia: Residents
could
be hit with £5,000 rubbish collection fine for leaving bin out. It
is
high time to take the hint and Take
The Gap!
« Letter Re: Advice on Fuel Drums and Fuel Transfer Pumps? |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Bureaucracy is the epoxy that greases the wheels of progress." -
James H. Boren, political science professor at Northeastern State University
« Letter Re: Impressions of Medical Corps Training |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Letter Re: Advice on Fuel Drums and Fuel Transfer Pumps?
Jim:
Do you have any idea where I can get a 50 gallon fuel drum with a manual
pump like
the one that your previous writer discussed? - SF in Hawaii
JWR Replies: You should first consult your local fire code,
for capacity limits. This is generally not a problem outside of city limits,
but laws vary widely. Needless to say, you
should store any fuel cans or drums in a detached storage
shed that is away from your house, not in an attached garage!
In North America, the fuel drums that the reader mentioned are usually made
in 55 gallon capacity. Your local fuel distributor should have new ones, or
you
can
scrounge
used
clean ones
locally if you post a query on Craig's
List. The fuel-rated pumps are often D-handle
design, like these.
Again, used ones are less expensive.
Or, of course you could also use a 12
VDC electric fuel transfer pump, like the ones that I make. (OBTW, every
family should keep one of these pumps handy.)
Unless you are certain that you will be using the fuel within a few weeks,
be sure
to se
stabilizer, such as Pri-G.
It is best to buy winter-formulated gas, and rotate it annually.
(Also in winter.) This is because winter gas has extra butane added, o aid cold
weather starting. This formulation extends the storage life of gasoline.
Drums that are 20 gallons or smaller can be moved with a standard dolly and
lifted off a pickup tailgate by two men. But moving anything larger requires
special handling equipment, and is a back ache waiting to happen. Filling (or
re-filling) a large drum that is kept at
home can best be accomplished discreetly by using your vehicle's fuel tank
and a 12 VDC fuel
transfer
pump. Just make several trips over the period of a week, and it won't be noticeable.
Buy the materials for camouflaging your fuel drum(s) in advance. I generally
recommend scrounging an appliance box (such as a small refrigerator box) so
that the drum won't
be noticed by
visiting workmen or meter readers. Or you could build a false wall at the end
of a long shed. One other alternative is to use a "hide
in plain sight" (HIPS) approach. This might be to re-paint the drum white,
with herbicide
markings. This won't look too out of place for drum up to 30 gallon capacity
stored in the corner of a gardening shed. You can also leave a full two-gallon
lawnmower
gas can
in the same shed, as "bait" for burglars, to distract their attention.
Re-painting a fuel drum is a fun and creative family stencil cutting and painting
project.
« Letter Re: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Fuel Drums and Fuel Transfer Pumps? »
Letter Re: Impressions of Medical Corps Training
Dear Mr. Rawles:
Thanks for a wonderful book and blog site. They are very, very helpful. I also
wanted to thank you for a posting I saw last spring on your web site about
the Medical Corps class
led by Chuck Fenwick, called Field Medicine in a Hostile Environment. Because
of that posting, I took Chuck's course in Ohio in May and found it to be
invaluable. I couldn't believe all the techniques and information imparted
in such a short period of time. Although not on the curriculum, when I asked
if he'd show us how to give injections, he added that to the curriculum.
Chuck is extremely knowledgeable and you know he's experienced it all. His
workshop was life-changing for me and the 40 + attendees. I feel like I'm
ready to be of assistance to anyone who may experience injuries of almost
any sort. I can imagine nothing worse than seeing a loved one hurt and not
know what to do to help them. Now I've got peace of mind in that area thanks
to you and Chuck.
The reason I'm writing today is because I've noticed he's
bringing his class to Texas, just outside the Austin area, in December.
This may be the last time this course may be offered if TSHTF soon,
and I think that if many Texans knew about the class, they'd be forever grateful.
There are a lot of us down here in this great state who feel that readiness
for the schumer is very important. I recommend this class to anyone and everyone.
No one can afford not to have these skills.
Thanks again, Mr. Rawles, for letting your readers know about this life-changing
and life-enhancing workshop. Blessings, - Mary C
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Impressions of Medical Corps Training »
Letter Re: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away
Memsahib,
You are "spot on" with your comments regarding "Saving
Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away."
We are in our early sixties, married for 20+ years, and retired for several
years. I'm the "captain," and handle our finances (with the Admiral's
advice and consent...).
That said, the fact is we see the World differently. I am for the most part
externally oriented. The Admiral is mostly internally oriented with regard
to our home and
events, but she indulges me to a certain degree as I wander around studying
the situations and circumstances. Often these situations and events seem pretty
remote
from our lives, from her perspective. Figuratively speaking, her version of
a threat is someone one banging on the front door. My version of a threat is
someone
casing the neighborhood.
A few years ago I earnestly began my study of American economics and culture,
and came to some pretty unpleasant assessments. In fact, it was pretty grim.
When I began sharing this information with the Admiral I was disappointed
with her less-than-enthusiastic responses. I learned (pretty quickly) that
she just
didn't want to hear this stuff and it dumbfounded me how she could "ignore" such
vital information! We chose to discuss our difference in perspectives and agreed
to honor one another's position(s). I was certainly able to continue my observation
and assessment efforts, as long as I didn't go overboard and begin cutting
gun ports in the walls. (My little joke.) She indicated that she is interested
in what
I learn, but she just wasn't emotionally equipped to handle the rather constant
barrage of data that I was laying on her.
Recognizing these differences we've come to a comfortable understanding. She
knows a lot more about what I think and why, and she's helped keep me from
going too far around the bend. I feel we're pulling our wagon together; and
sharing
Life's load and challenges. Married Life is not about doing it all your way,
and compromises are often necessary. (I know something about that too - but
that's another story.)
To wrap this up, what I learned is to identify what information you want to
convey, distill it, and find an appropriate time to transmit the information
(probably
not at bedtime or during cocktails with friends!). What the Admiral was recoiling
to was the constant bombardment of stuff she basically didn't want to hear
to begin with.
One more comparison. During many years in the military I was often tasked to
brief flag officers. These folks don't usually time or inclination for all
the detailed information and data behind an analysis (that's why it's called
is a
briefing ). Generals (...and my Admiral) expect their personnel to have reviewed
all the information available and arrive at an assessment in often competing
situations. And it requires a lot of work to determine what needs to be said
if you only have three or thirty minutes before the General.
There are times and situations where a bombardment of information is appropriate;
but there are more occasions when a carefully chosen information shot will
work better.
Thanks for a well done and very informational web site. Best, - Captain
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away »
Odds 'n Sods:
Some
Treehuggers concede that we may be right, after all, even if we do
use Excessive and Gratuitous Acronym Diversions (EGADs).
o o o
From our Economic Editor, starting with the most disturbing news: Bloomberg
Analyst Marc Faber: $700 Billion Bailout Could Balloon To $5 Trillion -- WaMu
Is Gone, But Trouble Spots Remain (The banks to watch: Wachovia, Comerica,
Marshall & Ilsley) -- Wachovia,
Citi In Merger Talks -- Stocks
Rebound On Renewed Bailout Hopes -- The
US Banking Collapse Was A Controlled Demolition Let's
Play Wall Street Bailout (Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio rants well) -- They
Want Mama To Make It All Better
o o o
Even the oh-so conservative Wall Street Journal is starting to take
on an alarmist tone: Few
Good Scenarios in View as Crisis Spreads. Buckle up!
o o o
Kevin A. recommended some commetary by Jim Willie, over at The Silver
Bear Cafe: Corruption,
Whispers & Receivership
« Two Letters Re: Advice for City Folks on a Budget? |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor
the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to
men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth
to them all.
For man also knoweth not his time: as the fishes that are taken in an evil net,
and as the birds that are caught in the snare; so are the sons of men snared
in an evil time, when it falleth suddenly upon them." - Ecclesiastes 9:11-12
(KJV)
« Letter Re: Questions on Short Term Survival in an Urban Office Building |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Two Letters Re: Advice for City Folks on a Budget?
Dear Mr. Rawles,
I am writing to ask for your advice and for your charity, and also because
I think this subject may be of interest to many of your readers. I discovered
your web site a week ago and have found it to be both very informative and
also very alarming! It was major wake-up call for me.
In my opinion, I am not at all prepared for the upheavals that are already
underway and that lie ahead of us.
I would very much like to change that situation, but it all (considered as
a whole) seems so overwhelming. I don't know what to do, where to start and
how to go about it. Also, I don't feel that I have the same resources and freedom
as some of your other readers.
I also have the feeling that many, perhaps most, of your readers may be in
exactly the same situation as me:
I am a 50 year old average guy with a wife and two young children to support.
I work in a medium sized metropolitan area and live in an average house in
the suburbs, about 10 miles out of town, on a 1/5th acre lot. My kids go to
public school, my wife works part-time and I work full-time. We depend on the
income
from my job to support the family. It is not the kind of job that allows me
to just uproot myself and live out in the sticks. My wife and I make just enough
to pay the bills and set aside a little bit for my 401(k) [retirement
savings account]and my kids' college education. We do not own any real estate
aside from our home.
We have about
$50,000 in savings, $90,000 in home equity and about $190,000 in my 401(k)
.
In my opinion, we are not prepared at all for any sort of natural, economic,
social or political upheaval or disaster:
- We don't own a ranch or farm or remote property of any kind.
- We don't own gold or silver.
- We don't own any weapons and don't know how to use them.
- We don't have any food or emergency supplies stored up.
- Our house is not "hardened" or "secure".
- We don't have a generator, etc.
- We are not EMTs and don't know how to grow crops or butcher a hog.
- We don't have a G.O.O.D. plan or vehicle or provisions.
In short, we are probably just like most of the other average families in the
USA (and perhaps like most of your readers) except for our awareness of the
problems that may be coming and our desire to be prepared.
My wife and I both believe in being "prepared" but my idea and hers
are different. My wife things that the problems we are facing are temporary,
so she would like to be prepared too, but she doesn't want to rock the boat
or uproot our family to do it. I am alarmed and would like to be very well
prepared, but I don't want to wreck my marriage and family in the process.
Mr. Rawles, please tell us what we can do given the situation I've described.
What specific steps should we take and in what order? What would you do if
you were me in my shoes?
I know you get a lot of letters, but I sure hope you answer this one on your
web site. For my sake, for my family's sake and for the sake of what may be
hundreds or thousands of people just like me that read your web site and want
to do something but don't know what to do, how to do it, where to start and
what's most important to do first, second, third etc.
Thank you in advance for your kind consideration. - Mike H.
Hello Jim,
I've been reading your blog off and on for several months, but I've yet to
see anything substantial for us poorer citizens. When it comes to TEOTWAWKI,
then it's all well and good if you were wealthy enough to be able to afford
a nice out-of-the-way location to save yourself, but what of us who are stuck
in an apartment in the city, like Denver? Or worse, people in metropolises
like Chicago and New York? Where could millions of people all possibly go
to get away from it all? All we can do is to arm ourselves to the teeth and
wait it out? We'd like to get out of the city too, but we aren't able to
buy property, which is why we're stuck in apartments, rather than homes.
I'm afraid that if such a disaster should come our way, then we will be on
our own. Even if we have a network of people, they are often driving distances
that are impractical in a time of extreme crisis. Do you have any suggestions
for those of us with extremely limited incomes? I've searched your site,
but if you did have something, I may have missed it.
Thanks, - Ken R.
JWR Replies: I realize that buying a rural
retreat is not within the means of most SurvivalBlog readers.
There have been quite a few articles on both urban survival and budget conscious
survival, and they are available in the archives, all of course free of charge.
OBTW, a brief description of how to search the archives can be found here.
Here are a few SurvivalBlog letters and articles that I found in just a few
minutes of searches, using "urban" and "budget" in my search phrases. (There
are
many
more available.):
Budget
Preparedness--Survival Isn't About Stuff, It is About Skills
Letter Re: Hunkering Down in an Urban Apartment in a Worst Case Societal Collapse
Letter
Re: An Urban/Suburban "Stay Put" Survival Strategy
Ten Things That Will Get You Killed While Bugging In, by Paul C.
Letter Re: Advice on a Budget Water Filter
Selecting a Rifle for a Budget-Constrained Prepper
Letter
Re: Preparedness on a Very Tight Budget (Also see: Follow-up
letter from
J.F.,
and Follow-up
letter from R.L.)
Letter
Re: Advice for a Canadian with a "Just One Gun" Budget
Letter Re: Will Peasant Farmers Fare Better than the Rich in TEOTWAWKI?
SurvivalBlog is intended
for people from all walks of life. One point of clarification: My own income
is quite modest. In fact, if I still lived in a high cost region, then I
wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage payment on a three bedroom house. It
is only
because
I've
been preparing very gradually and systematically for 30 years that I now
have a squared-away retreat here in The Unnamed Western State. And it is only
by God's grace that I have a wife that is agreeable to living in the boonies,
and that I'm able to work
from home.
Regardless of your income level, start
with a list of lists. Tailor your procurement plan based on your personal
circumstances and to match what you see as the most likely chain of events. Just
be
systematic, and set your priorities carefully. The smaller your budget, then
the
more
important this is.
In answer to the question on 401(k) accounts: Many 401(k) accounts can be
rolled over into IRAs.
If that is the case, then I recommend doing a rollover into a Gold IRA, available
through Swiss
America Trading Company. I have had a gold coin IRA since 1998. Once established,
these accounts are measured in an "ounce" value with
a "Beginning Cost Basis" noted for when your dollars were first
converted into U.S. Gold Eagles. In my case, most of the one ounce Gold
Eagle bullion coins they put in storage for me cost $315 each (IIRC, this was
when spot gold was $298 per ounce). Gold has nearly tripled since then. The
coins
are
physically
stored
by Goldstar
Trust, a bonded vault company in Texas.
The annual storage and administration fee is now $90 per
year, but in my opinion that is a small price to pay for knowing that when
I eventually cash out my IRA it will be in tangible form,
rather than an investment vehicle denominated in dollars. I have no way of
knowing
how much
the US Dollar
will depreciate in the next 15 years, but it is pretty safe to say that gold
will still have the same--or nearly the same--buying power that it does today.
I strongly recommend that if you have an IRA or 401(k) account that you conduct
a fund rollover into a Gold
IRA.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Advice for City Folks on a Budget? »
Letter Re: Questions on Short Term Survival in an Urban Office Building
Dear Mr. Rawles,
First off, I just want to say that I really appreciate what you're doing with
your blog site. I've learned so many useful things and feel that I am beginning
to have a basic understanding of how to prepare for and live in and a survival
situation.
Second, I'd like to give you a quick bit of background about myself so you
can hopefully help me with my dilemma/question...
I am a young adult working on the 9th floor of a large building in Manhattan
[on Long Island, New York City, New York]. I do not own a car and so I use
public transportation, typically the subway. My apartment is about a 30 minute
walk from work. In my
apt I have
started
building
up my survival gear, food, Bug Out Bag, etc...But I realize that I spend most
of my days not in my apt but in my office, working. So I've decided to start
planning
my office survival gear because if Manhattan was ever attacked with some form
of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, and I'm still alive, I don't believe
there would be time for me to get back to my apt before being affected (as
subways, buses, and foot traffic will be clogged and slow). I figure my best
bet for survival would be to hunker down for the first 48-to-72 hours in my
building probably the library.
What are your thoughts/advice on staying in the building??
Also what kind of survival gear can I bring to work that would be discreet
but really help me in my first 48 hours of survival?
This is what I have so far, which my employer has provided in a fanny pack
for everyone:
[Mylar] bags of water. (We also have water coolers)
flashlight and batteries
goggles
emergency blanket
small first aid kit
mask
whistle
Any advice would be appreciated and thank you for your time. Regards, - Flora
in New York City
JWR Replies: Hunkering down in an urban environment can
be difficult. We've
addressed that before in SurvivalBlog.
Your office or cubicle
probably has a locking desk, file cabinet, and/or a credenza. Typically,
with
the high
turn-over
rate
in
most corporations, keys for furniture gets lost. Ask your
facilities
department to either re-key your locks, or have them cut new keys for them,
based of their manufacturer's code numbers. (Typically stamped in small digits
next
to the lock key way.) With this semi-secure storage space available, there
is no reason why you cannot gradually build up a substantial supply of food,
and
have a place store items such as a flashlight, sleeping bag, foam mattress
pad,
and
so forth.
Even the interior of modular cubicle walls have a remarkable amount of space
for items up to two inches thick. (One advantage of being an over-worked
technical writer for many years was that it gave me a lot of late night
hours to explore
such possibilities. You would not believe what I stored inside my cubicle
walls!)
Keep in mind that in a blackout, your building will be quite cold, at least
for half of each year So be sure to store an insulated pad, down jacket, a
pile cap, and gloves in your office.
Buy a USGI protective
mask (preferably an M40 or a recent USAF MCU series) and at least four spare
filter canisters, from a reliable vendor such as JRH
Enterprises. Since these only filter the
available air, they are not nearly as capable as a compressed air system
like firefighters
typically use. The latter will operate even in oxygen-deprived environments,
but a mask will at least increase your chance of getting out of a
high-rise building alive, in the event
of a fire. One trick, BTW, is attaching two filters simultaneously
(on both sides of the mask), to increase the available air flow during heavy
exertion.
Find out where any extra bottled water for your building is stored.
There, or near there, is the logical place to find your "hunker down" room.
Scout out your building thoroughly. It might be worthwhile getting to know
someone on your building Facilities Department staff. Buy him lunch, and have
a chat. Find out where the roof accesses are, and if they are kept locked.
See if there are
any
back
rooms,
machinery
rooms,
or
passageways that are not well known. These rooms are often kept locked. One
little-known method if gaining access to such spaces is to climb up through
a suspended (or "drop") acoustic panel ceiling, go over a partition,
and climb back down into the locked room. You might even keep a small
folding
ladder
such
as a QuikStep
ladder handy for just
this purpose. (Tres Batman.) For some ideas on discovering unused spaces
in buildings, see the Web
Urbanist site, and related "urban exploration" web sites and their forums.
(Of course, all the
usual
legal
disclaimers apply.)
Weapons
that are legal to possess in New York City have been discussed previously
in SurvivalBlog. If nothing else, you should keep a cane or stout full-size
umbrella in your office at all times. BTW, it is also wise to carry either
of these
whenever you are on city sidewalks or on the subway. They will look quite
innocuous, but with the right training will give
you
a great
advantage
in a
brute force
fighting
situation. For training, start with the Gordon
Oster DVD, and the book "Raising
Cane" by
Octavio Ramos. Then take a FMA
cane
fighting class. Those would all be money well spent!
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Questions on Short Term Survival in an Urban Office Building »
Odds 'n Sods:
Cheryl, our Economic Editor, sent us these: Congress
Restarts Troubled Bailout Talks -- Stocks
Mostly Decline As Investors Remain Tense Over Bailout -- WaMu
Becomes Biggest Bank To Fail In US History -- Wachovia
In Huge Mortgage Mess -- UK
Banks May Get $180bn From US Bailout -- Wachovia
Shares Begin Dive After WaMu Death -- JPMorgan
Buys WaMu For A Mere $1.9 Billion ("To put the size of
WaMu in context, its assets are equal to about two-thirds of the combined book
value assets of all 747 failed thrifts that were sold
off by the Resolution Trust Corp. - the former government body that handled
the S&L crisis from 1989 through 1995.") -- Wall
Street Should Be Looking For Bail, Not A Bailout -- Risk
Of Paulson Failing Has Markets Frozen In Fear -- Money
Market Conditions Deteriorate Further -- Central
Banks Take Action. -- Withdrawals
by customers ultimately sank WaMu . And here is one more from Jonathan
Prynn, of England's Evening Standard,
courtesy of Dan S.: Stand
by for Black Monday
o o
o
Et tu, WaMu? WaMu
Failed, Seized By FDIC, Bought By JPMorgan."The Army Aviator" notes:
"That was a good call that Jim
Sinclair made as to how it's amazing that
the largest bank failure (WaMu) [occurred on a Thursday] just when they are
trying to get that
bailout Schumer passed--instead of announcing it at the usual Friday
after the market closings. Gosh, the crooks aren't even good crooks.
Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy."
o o o
Budget crunch: Palm
Bay, Florida Police May Stop Responding To Some Crimes. (A hat tip to
Eric for the link.)
o o o
More about the gasoline shortage in the southeast: Tempers
flare at pumps and Gas
Shortage In the South Creates Panic, Long Lines
o o o
Katya was the first of several readers that sent us this: Gold
coin sales halted after retail rush
« Note from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to
live at the expense of everybody else." - Frederic Bastiat, Essays
on
Political Economy, 1872
« From The Memsahib: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Note from JWR:
Based on the tone
of many recent e-mails, I can see that the anxiety level of SurvivalBlog readers
has definitely gone up a notch. With headlines like
these, it is no wonder.
Again, the present circumstances do not dictate doing anything
drastic. Wait, watch, and above all be
ready.
This would be a good time to top off your storage food and fuel reserves. Don't
quit your day job!
« Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn |Main| Note from JWR: »
From The Memsahib: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away
We received the following sad letter from an anonymous SurvivalBlog reader
that illustrates how women can be driven away by men that are insensitive to
the
emotional differences
between men and women.
Hello Jim,
I especially enjoyed The Memsahib's article directed towards single people
needing to get out there and volunteer / network, and the article regarding
balancing prepping with continuing to enjoy life. I think it's a good idea
to pay especially close attention to the articles she writes as I find
that I've not had balance over the last few years as I've become more aware
of the need to become self sufficient and the challenges that goal presents
for a city slicker. I've managed to get caught up in scurrying around to
prepare and cutting corners on all types of expenses (vacations, toys,
fancy dinners, and even cable television) and I've managed to row
myself right up "single creek" and lose a good fiance by forgetting
to enjoy life in the here and now. Looking back, with a little
balance, and teamwork things might have been different, but in my rush
to prepare I lost track of everything else. That may sound extreme,
but it's easy to do with the current state of affairs. To many of us reading
SurvivalBlog preparing is a means to a self-evident end and it inherently
makes sense given the hard facts, but a touch of balance is also equally
as important.
With the torrent of bad economic news being shouted from the headlines, many
SurvivalBlog readers have consciously or subconsciously increased their state
of readiness. I'm writing this as a reminder. Husbands, please be aware
that your wives might be having difficulty dealing with your ratcheting-up
of readiness. When
you mention a news item, you will likely hear your wife saying "I don't
want to hear about this!", or "I can't handle hearing about that
right now", especially if she has other pressing concerns such as pregnancy,
aged parents to care for, health issues, or stress at her work. If she is
able to communicate this to you, then you need to respect her boundaries. Hopefully
you are a united team and you can explain to her that you will continue to
prepare but spare her all the incessant doom and gloom talk . Husbands who
have blown the budget with survival gear in the past are going have a much
more difficult time in this situation. Your wife might have difficulty trusting
you. We know a husband who spent thousands of dollars (all their savings) on
preps pre-Y2K without
saying anything to his wife. If his wife had not been a Christian
who
believed
divorce is never an option, the marriage would have been over.
For many years, Jim and I have had the "No Gloom and Doom Talk After
8 p.m." rule. We all need a good night's sleep, and having conversations
about TEOTWAWKI close
to bedtime can be troubling. This rule helps me sleep better because there
is then plenty of time before bed to focus on our blessings.
If you want to better understand this psychology, then refer to these archived SurvivalBlog articles:
Letter Re: Help With a Non-Preparedness Minded Spouse
Ten
Letters Re: Help With a Non-Preparedness Minded Spouse (follow-up e-mails)
Letter Re: My Wife Ignores My Preparedness Goals
« Letter Re: Making Alternatives to Commercial Chemical Light Sticks |Main| From The Memsahib: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships--Don't Drive Your Loved Ones Away »
Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn
Hello Mr. Rawles!
I love your blog, and visit at least weekly, more often
daily.
The current economic situation is sickening. I mean, actually making my
stomach hurt, as I am not prepared. I just recently was hit
on the head with
the motivation
to get prepared. The only problem with that is that I don't even know where
to start. Food? Weapons and Ammunition? Medical supplies? I am the patriarch
of a family of 4. My wife and I, and our two children, both 10 and under. What
I could use your advice on is just what I mentioned before, where does someone
like me start. We have very little money, we live in the city, and we have
no supplies except a Remington 870 Express [12 gauge shotgun] with a couple
boxes
of
ammunition and food from the grocery store for a couple weeks and our camping
supplies
which amount to a couple days in the woods. I'm extremely worried that I simply
won't be able to help my family survive the coming collapse. I want to be prepared,
and I'm motivated.
Thank you for any time you could donate with your advice! - MWS
JWR Replies: Start out by getting a good quality water filter
such as the Katadyn VARIO currently on sale at Ready Made Resources and
stocking up
on canned foods.
If you don't yet already have one, buy a
spare riot "Police" length
20" barrel with rifle-type iron sights for your Model 870, with "IC" (improved
cylinder) choke, or better yet the "Rem Choke" removable choke tubes.
These
barrels are
available
with
a
durable
finish
to match your "Express" variant.
Buy at least 200 rounds of #4 buckshot, 25 rounds (five boxes of 5) of rifled
slugs, and when you can budget for it, a case of #6 birdshot shells for bird
hunting
and
small
game
hunting
Since your resources are limited, your greatest opportunity to increase your
chances of survival will
be
teaming up with like-minded folks in your area. For some suggestions, see my
static page on Finding
Like-Minded People
in Your Area.
Be sure to take advantage of low cost training through the American
Red Cross,
the Appleseed Program, and the WRSA.
Pray hard, study hard, and train hard.
« Letter Re: A Girl Scout Troop Leader Wants to Get Her Girls Prepared |Main| Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn »
Letter Re: Making Alternatives to Commercial Chemical Light Sticks
Hi Jim,
I just read your novel "Patriots" and
studied the Rawles
Gets You Ready" preparedness course,
and both are excellent. [In them,] you talk about chem lights (otherwise known
as glow sticks) for in your car for changing tires, handy around campsites,
and
what
not. The shelf life on these, as you mentioned, is very short
(couple of months in a car [in a hot climate]) and they are not cheap (or maybe
just I am cheap). I
found this video on making an LED version of them that is reusable.
Seems to me like a good idea for recycling the older ones that are now dead.
You can buy LED glow sticks as well which may be cheaper and easier from
places
like this.
I have no affiliation with them and have never bought from them, but just wanted
to show an example.
Thanks, - Rutger (Temporarily in Costa Rica)
JWR Replies: Perhaps the easiest method for creating a glowing
wand was suggested by The Gun Plumber over at The FALFiles: "After the
light stick is expended, cut the end off, dump the liquid and glass ampoule
[and discard
safely], then tape the plastic tube to your Mini MagLite flashlight to make
an IR wand--the plastic tube is the IR filter! As
previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, there are some huge tactical advantages
to using infrared light sticks if you own any Starlight-type (light amplification)
night
vision
gear.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Making Alternatives to Commercial Chemical Light Sticks »
Letter Re: A Girl Scout Troop Leader Wants to Get Her Girls Prepared
James:
The Boy Scouts of America have an Emergency
Preparedness merit badge that hits a lot of
good points. There is a lot of redundancy on the web concerning this merit
badge, but it does broach some basic concepts aimed at a youth’s perspective.
Sincerely,
- Bill in Austin, Texas
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: A Girl Scout Troop Leader Wants to Get Her Girls Prepared »
Odds 'n Sods:
Several readers sent us this article, suggesting a correlation with my recent
Pre-Crash Checklist: China
banks told to halt lending to US banks
o
o o
Cheryl found this for us: Shipping
Container Homes
o o o
Rod McG. sent us this: In
Israel, Kibbutz Life Makes a Surprising Comeback
o o o
Dan and Becky flagged this: confirmation that the growth of the Mother of
All Bailouts is not slowing: House
clears $25 billion for car makers
o o o
Some news and commentary gleanings from our Economic Editor: WaMu's
Hopes For Capital Drying Up -- Deal
Near On Bailout Plan -- Buffet
Says Act or Face "Financial Pearl Harbor" -- Buffet
Favors Bailout: Here's Why -- US
Faces "One H*ll of a Deep Downturn" -- Ron
Paul's Federal Reserve Abolition Act -- One
of Biggest Car Dealerships Closing -- Congress
Reaches "Agreement
in Principal" on $700 Billion Bailout -- Asia
Needs Deal To Prevent Panic Selling Of US Debt -- FDIC
May Need $150 Billion By End Of 2009 -- Barrick
Sees Large-Scale Gold Buying On Bailout -- US
Federal Reserve Funnels $30 Billion Into Overseas Money Markets -- Credit
Stress Intermarket Money Market Freeze Evident in TAF, TED Spread Everywhere
« Letter Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"During the hyperinflation in post WWI Germany, what used to be a comfortable
nest egg was suddenly the value of a postage stamp. If one held just a portion
of their savings in precious metals, the crisis was greatly softened. Gold
will never be worth nothing, even if the exact price fluctuates. There is a
famous photograph, however, of a German woman during this time period burning
piles of tightly bound banknotes to keep warm." - Congressman Ron Paul
« Letter Re: Yoder's Canned Bacon and Canned Meats? |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Letter Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For?
Jim,
Some of us may be stuck within the city limits until 'the last possible
moment' before an event such as WTSHTF.
Can you suggest a day-to-day procedure or strategy to now follow for monitoring
specific and reliable news outlets or
information sources in determining when our G.O.O.D. action
plan should be initiated? .
Obviously, many people such as myself, have all the 'other' recommended Rawles
preparations in place but are still at a disadvantage from those that were able
to set up their retreat ahead of time and to have evacuated from a city. It's
the best that I can do, at this point.
Additionally, the economic news events these days are so wild and crazy that
it's hard to discern what main event, 'red flag' or 'markers'
should precipitate an exit out of the city without further doubt or hesitation.
Brushing up on 'common
sense and logic' doesn't hurt here, but it's the expectation that some specific
chain-of-events will take place that categorically shout now that
I'm speaking of. Can you give us your personal view on what these catalyst events
could be?
Thank you, - Ken R. (A 10
Cent Challenge subscriber)
JWR Replies: There are far too many variables
in the current situation for me to be able point to just one key "trigger" or "gating" indicator.
Be ready, but don't panic. I must caution SurvivalBlog readers: "Don't
give up your day job." Unless
you are retired, or have a stable and substantial secondary cash flow from
investments or a home-based business, it would be highly imprudent to quit
your job (or
start
burning vacation
hours) and move to your retreat. My advice: Watch the news carefully and be
ready
to leave on short
notice.
As
I've previously
mentioned, it is very important to pre-position the vast majority
of your key logistics at your retreat,
under the watchful eye of a caretaker or a trusted neighbor. When the time
comes, you may only have the opportunity to make one trip to
your retreat before highways become impassable.
Here are some important indicators to watch
for, in my humble estimation. (Witnessing just one of these won't be surely
indicative, but if we see several of these...) :
A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate
News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked
Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers
Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday
Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up
on the streets)
A stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day
A large and sudden spike in inflation
Any suspension of US stock trading
Draconian new stock trading limits
(for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news
that the trading was halted because of the limits)
New restrictions on either precious metals purchasing reporting requirements
New limits on moving funds outside the US
Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties
or illiquidity.)
News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions
News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset
Value (NAV)
The US
Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of
trading.
Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC.
(Up or down.)
Rioting in several metropolitan centers simultaneously.
Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce
News that any major western power is no longer accepting
US Dollars in payment for key commodities
News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority
of their US Treasury paper
A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer.
The Treasury starts to extensively monetize debt.
The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Mel Gibson moves to Fiji ;-)
« Letter Re: Gauging Bank and Thrift Safety |Main| Letter Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? »
Letter Re: Yoder's Canned Bacon and Canned Meats?
Mr. Rawles;
Thanks for the time and effort you put into SurvivalBlog.com. It is a truly
valuable and unique resource.
Working on my lists of supplies and equipment, I’m wondering about Yoder’s
canned bacon and other canned meats, beef, chicken, turkey, pork, sausage,
etc. They advertise [an up to] 10 year shelf life (depending on storage conditions
of course) and the price isn’t unreasonable. Too heavy for much mobility
but for home base they appear to me to be an attractive way to store some meat
products without refrigeration. Any info or thoughts on this? Thanks, - Gatekeeper
JWR Replies: The Yoder's canned cooked bacon product is a
new offering, but it is actually an old concept. Given the time and energy
required
to cook
and can it, the price per can is fairly reasonable. OBTW, canned bacon, butter,
and cheese are
also
sold
by a number of Internet vendors, including several of our advertisers: Safecastle, Best
Prices Storable Foods, and Ready
Made
Resources. These canned foods
make good supplements to round out a diet and break up the monotony of eating
bland
storage
foods such as wheat, rice, and beans.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Yoder's Canned Bacon and Canned Meats? »
Letter Re: Gauging Bank and Thrift Safety
James,
I wrote you a month or two ago regarding a post of yours that was concerned
about failing banks. I commented that I thought the worries were overblown
- there was no reason to think that FDIC wouldn't pay off the claims, just
as FSLIC paid off the claims in the 1980s. I still think that's true, but I
have had a personal cautionary experience that has moved me much closer to
your way of thinking.
I had a brokered Certificate of Deposit (CD)
issued by IndyMac. (In case you post this, for readers unfamiliar with the
term, "brokered" mean
I bought it through a broker, like a bond or stock. Banks that want to raise
a lot of
money
aggressively
issue brokered CDs to attract "hot" money, money that flows in quickly
and can flow out just as quickly; FDIC doesn't much like such CDs, for obvious
reasons.) It had a few months to go when IndyMac failed. FDIC announced that
they would honor the terms and rates for non-brokered CDs, but would simply
terminate brokered CDs and return principal and interest up to the day the
bank failed to the owners.
So that's problem #1: FDIC just made up the rules as it went along. Why was
my CD different from others? Because they said so, pure and simple. They would
claim it's for the overall good, because it discourages brokered CDs, which
can make banks more prone to runs, but that doesn't help me, does it? And it's
not like they had announced this ahead of time. So I lose money, and there's
no way I could have known to avoid it. (IndyMac wasn't on their trouble list
when I bought the CD.)
Problem #2: not only didn't the money show up in my brokerage account right
away, I couldn't even find out when it would show up. It was more than two
weeks before it appeared, and I got no interest for that time.
Neither problem was significant in this instance; it wasn't a big CD and it
didn't have much longer to maturity, and the delay wasn't very long. But it
was a powerful experience in terms of opening my eyes to what might happen
under greater financial stress. If FDIC can delay returning the money for two
weeks with no interest, they can do it for two months, or however long they
need to. Clearly, beyond the basic insurance act of eventually returning money
earned up to the date of bank failure, everything else is up to the FDIC's
whim. That doesn't give me a good feeling.
The best way to avoid this is to choose strong banks. One resource I've found
useful in the past is thestreet.com ratings. This used to be called Weiss Research,
and they are clearly an independent source of analysis of bank strength and
safety. Their home page
says: "We don't accept compensation from the companies we rate for issuing
the rating. Nor do we give the companies an opportunity to preview the ratings
or suppress
their publication if they're unfavorable. We are totally independent and unbiased
because our loyalty is to you -- the customer."
If you go to The
Street.com's Rating Page and select
Banks and Thrifts, you can then type in the name of a bank you want to check,
and click Go. They will list the matches, with letter grades from A+ on down.
You can then click on a bank name and download a more detailed report, but
for my purposes the letter grade has been enough to tell me whether I'm about
to make a mistake. Keep up the good work! - Michael A. in Seattle
« Letter Re: My Preparedness Measures Pay Off During Fuel Shortage |Main| Letter Re: Gauging Bank and Thrift Safety »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
“How fabulous,” writes Brian Reade in the British tabloid The
Mirror. “Thanks to the way it props up the USA’s two biggest mortgage
firms, more than half of American homes are now effectively owned by the state...
Who’d have imagined that when the most right-wing of neo-cons leaves
office 50% of the Land of the Free will effectively be [public housing]”?
- Bill Bonner
« Letter Re: Home Canning and Stocking Up |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Letter Re: My Preparedness Measures Pay Off During Fuel Shortage
Mr Rawles
You mentioned the current gasoline shortage in the southeast. The local news
media reported that 70% of the gas stations are empty and have been for three
days. To me it seems closer to 95%. Here is example: In south Nashville,
there is a major road called Nolensville Road. In a five mile mile stretch
from Thompson Lane
to Old Hickory Boulevard there are 26 gas stations. Not one of them has
had gas for several days. Within a two mile radius of that stretch of road
there are
55,000
residents.
That is a lot of people without gas. There have been fistfights at some of
the gas stations that have gas, but that is not being reported on the local
news.
As an enthusiastic SurvivalBlog reader for the past two years, I am not worried
because I am very prepared. For example, I keep 100 gallons as my bug out supply
to reach my retreat. In fact, I only need 10 gallons to get both of my cars
to
the retreat.
I think my wife finally seen the light about being prepared. She had always
looked a little strange at me when I would rotate my gas supply every six months.
There have been times that she thought I was a little nuts. But there was a
big smile on her face when I drug out those 5 gallon cans to filled her tank
up yesterday. I was also able to give 10 gallons to my neighbor--who is a single
mother and a school teacher--so she could go to work. Thank You, - Mike M.
in Tennessee
« Letter Re: My Hurricane Ike Experience |Main| Letter Re: My Preparedness Measures Pay Off During Fuel Shortage »
Letter Re: Home Canning and Stocking Up
Dear Sir,
I would like to thank you for your time and effort in providing
a “one stop shop” for such a large volume of information.
Principally due to your site, my family and I have begun to increase the size
of our pantry with both purchased food/supplies and other materials as well
as increase the amount of food we are home canning. One observation I have
made in all our preparations is the amount of food (from local gardens, backyard
fruit trees, farmyard orchards) that goes to waste in our area. It is amazing
the amount of produce on local backyard fruit trees and in gardens that either
because of a lack of time or lack of knowledge, people allow to spoil. We have “put
the word out” that we are interested in any fresh fruit/vegetables that
people have and due to that, we now have more fruit and vegetables than we
have canning jars and freezer space.
We have begun to shop around at local farm auctions and garage sales for canning
jars and have enlisted several other family members in our endeavor. My father-in-law
is preparing his garden ~ 2 acres, for the addition of our own fruit trees,
berry bushes, asparagus and other vegetables. We have also begun to make contacts
with others who are interested in bartering for materials. This has greatly
increased the number of relationships with other folks in our area and has
resulted in a much closer feeling of community between us and our neighbors.
We live on the edge of a fairly small agricultural town in southeast Nebraska
.
The biggest potential downfall is we do not have a retreat in the boonies.
We do have a fairly close neighborhood that “could” be isolated
(bridges over a creek and river) from some traffic. In the mean time, we continue
to stock food and other materials you have suggested and prepare our property
in the event of a meltdown.
Again, thank you for your time. - Brad E.
« A Girl Scout Troop Leader Wants to Get Her Girls Prepared |Main| Letter Re: Home Canning and Stocking Up »
Letter Re: My Hurricane Ike Experience
Dear Mr. Rawles,
First of all, my heart goes out to all those who truly suffered with loss of
life or property as a result of Hurricane Ike. I only had the minor inconvenience
of being without electricity in Houston for five days. (There are still over
one million in Houston and the surrounding area without power.) So I had a
taste of what it is like to be off-grid and learned a few things to share with
your readers. It seems a lot of people here had generators which burn lots
of precious gasoline. But after a few days the gasoline runs out. We toughed
it out. I did have small camping-type battery powered fans and several flashlights
but can't imagine what we'd do in a situation without power for the long term.
You can have only so many batteries and then what? We had water drawn in bath
tub to use for flushing toilet, as water plants use electricity to pump water.
Also had many frozen plastic milk jugs in freezer and big igloo to keep some
things cold for a couple of days. Ice was very hard to come by. Grocery stores
were closed for a couple of days and there were lines just to get into the
stores when they did open. They let in a few people at a time for crowd control.
I was lucky to have my nonperishable food stockpile. Remember to have extras
for relatives. Gas stations were slow to reopen and had hours to wait when
they did open. (Many buying gas for their generators). We had full tanks in
advance of the storm. One important item we used was the car charger for the
cell phone. Be sure to have one that fits your current phone model. Also, many
don't realize that cordless land line phones use electricity so you need to
have a standard corded phone (which I had) if you want to even find out if
your land-line works. To heat water for coffee we used sterno called Canned
Heat and it worked very well. I know this is merely a temporary solution to
heating. I told my husband recently that I wanted to buy a camp stove and now
he may agree with me. And of course no television or computer which is really
tough. I used my television band radio a lot to get information.
I am now more afraid than ever of what it is going to be like if the power
goes off frequently or stays off in a worse-case scenario. Luckily I didn't
see civil unrest, but what if power stayed off longer? If there was any way,
I would move out of the city. Since I can't leave, I will continue to prepare
the best I can. Please continue to remember the trapped-in-the-city dwellers
when you post ideas for survival. I think we need the most help. Thanks for
all you do, - Nancy B.
« Letter Re: A Suggested Reading List |Main| Letter Re: My Hurricane Ike Experience »
A Girl Scout Troop Leader Wants to Get Her Girls Prepared
We recently got an e-mail from a Girl Scout troop leader, describing how
she wants to start a project making 72-hour "bug out" bags for the troop members.
Her goal is to get her troop members better prepared, yet not tip-off their
parents
to her own level of preparedness. She wants to avoid making herself look like
some sort of "preparedness nut" or "whacko".
The important
thing to keep in mind is that terminology and phrasing are
crucial to how people form opinions. Do not use terms such as "Bug Out
Bag" or "Get
Out of Dodge Kit" or "Survival
Kit." It is much better to use the
term Disaster Preparedness Kit, or even better yet to phrase the title
to match the locally expected disaster. (Such as "Earthquake preparedness kit"
or "Hurricane preparedness kit". You get the idea....Our scouting friends in
California
made
earthquake kits for their cars which they keep in a large Tupperware bin in
the trunk. They contain bottled water, canned tuna, a can opener, granola bars,
space blankets, knit hats, matches, and so forth. Suggested packing lists
are available
in PDF from the FEMA web site.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| A Girl Scout Troop Leader Wants to Get Her Girls Prepared »
Letter Re: A Suggested Reading List
James:
Thank you for all of the work that you put into your web site. I have been
reading your site and preparing for the last couple of years. I thought you
might be interested in the Bibliography to my [retreat] group’s operations
guide.
Fiction
Adams, John Joseph. Wastelands. San Francisco : Night Shade Books, 2008.
Alten, Steve. The Shell Game. Springville , Utah : Sweetwater Books, 2007.
Brin, David. The Postman. New York : Bantam Books, 1985.
Budrys, Algis. Some Will Not Die. New York : Dell Publishing Co., Inc., 1961.
Card, Orson Scott. The Folk of the Fringe. New York : Tom Doherty Associates,
Inc., 1989.
Carlson, Jeff. Plague War. New York : The Penguin Group, 2008.
Frank, Pat. Alas, Babylon . New York : Harper Perennial, 1959.
Heinlein, Robert A. Farmer in the Sky. New York : Ballantine Books, 1950.
________. Time Enough For Love. New York : The Berkley Publishing Group, 1973.
________. Tunnel In The Sky. New York : Ballantine Books, 1955.
Ing, Dean. Pulling Through. New York : Charter Communications, Inc., 1983.
Kunstler, James Howard. World Made By Hand. New York : Atlantic Monthly Press,
2008.
McDevitt, Jack. Eternity Road. New York : Harper Collins Publishers, 1997.
Niven, Larry and Jerry Pournelle. Lucifer’s Hammer. New York : The Random
House Publishing Group, 1977.
Party, Boston T. Molon Labé! Ignacio , Colorado : Javelin Press, 2004.
Rawles, James Wesley. Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse. The Clearwater
Press, 2006.
Sheffield, Charles. Aftermath. New York : Bantam Books, 1998.
Stewart, George R. Earth Abides. New York : Del Rey Books, 1949.
Stirling , S.M. Dies The Fire. New York : New American Library, 2004.
________. The Protector’s War. New York : New American Library, 2005.
________. A Meeting at Corvallis . New York : New American Library, 2006.
Nonfiction
Food Storage
Layton, Peggy. Emergency Food Storage & Survival Handbook. New York : Three
Rivers Press, 2002.
Stafford , Jake and Jim Rawles. Rawles Gets You Ready: The Ultimate Emergency
Preparedness Course. Genoa , NV : Arbogast
Publishing, LLC, 2006.
General
Boy Scouts of America , Fieldbook, 4th Edition. Irving , TX : Boy Scouts of
America , 2004.
Clayton, Bruce D. Life After Terrorism. Boulder , CO : Paladin Press, 2002.
Deyo, Holly Drennan. Dare to Prepare, 2nd Edition. Pueblo West, Colorado :
Deyo Enterprises LLC, 2004
Diamond, Jared. Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York
: Penguin Books, 2005.
________. Guns, Germs, and Steel. New York : W.W. Norton & Company, 1997.
Emery, Carla. The Encyclopedia of Country Living, 9th Edition. Seattle : Sasquatch
Books, 2003.
Kelly, Kate. Living Safe in an Unsafe World. New York : New American Library,
2000.
Kunstler, James Howard. The Geography of Nowhere. New York : Simon & Schuster,
1994.
________. The Long Emergency. New York : Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005.
McGlashan, Charles F. History of the Donner Party. Barnes & Noble Publishing,
Inc., 2004.
Party, Boston T. Boston on Surviving Y2K and Other Lovely Disasters. Ignacio
, CO : Javelin Press, 1998.
Rawles, James Wesley. Rawles on Retreats and Relocations. The Clearwater Press,
2007.
________. SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog Volume 1. Clearwater Press, 2007.
Ruff, Howard J. How To Prosper During The Coming Bad Years In The 21st Century.
New York : The Penguin Group, 2008.
Starke, Linda. State of the World 2004. New York : W.W. Norton & Company,
2004.
United States Air Force. Search and Rescue Survival Training. New York : Barnes & Noble
Publishing, Inc., 2003.
United States Army , US Army Survival Manual. New York : Dorset Press, 2001.
United States Marine Corps. Guidebook For Marines, 14th Revised Edition. Quantico
, VA : The Marine Corps Association, 1982.
Global Warming
Gore, Al. An Inconvenient Truth. New York : Rodale, 2006.
Knauer, Kelly. Global Warming. New York : Time Books, 2007.
Lynas, Mark. Six Degrees, Our Future on a Hotter Planet. London : Harper Perennial,
2007.
JWR Adds: For a contrapuntal viewpoint, see: Meltdown:
The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and
the
Media, by Patrick J. Michaels
Mechanical
Bealer, Alex W. The Art of Blacksmithing. Edison , NJ : Castle Books, 1995.
Burbank , Nelson L. et al. House Construction Details, 7th Edition. New York
: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1986.
Davis , Thomas Bieber and Carl A. Nelson Sr. Audel Mechanical Trades Pocket
Manual, 4th Edition. Wiley Publishing, Inc., 2004.
Finch, Richard. Welder’s Handbook, revised edition. New York : The Berkley
Publishing Group, 1997.
Hauser, Walter. Introduction to the Principles of Mechanics. Reading , MA :
Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., 1965.
Graf, Rudolf F. The Modern Power Supply and Battery Charger Circuit. New York
: TAB Books, 1992.
Harper, Gavin D.J. Solar Energy Projects for the Evil Genius. New York : McGraw-Hill
Companies, Inc., 2007.
Hornung, William J. Builders Vest Pocket Reference Book. New York : Prentice
Hall Press, 1955.
Macauly, David. The Way Things Work. Boston : Houghton Mifflin Company, 1988.
Oberg, Erik et al. 27th Edition Machinery’s Handbook. New York : Industrial
Press, Inc., 2004.
Parmley, Robert O., P.E. Field Engineer’s Manual. New York : McGraw-Hill
Book Company, 1981.
Peters, Rick. Plumbing Basics. New York : Sterling Publishing Company, Inc.,
2000.
Proulx, Danny. The Pocket Hole Drilling Jig Project Book. Cincinnati , OH :
Popular Woodworking Books, 2004.
Richter, H.P. et al. Wiring Simplified. Minneapolis : Park Publishing, Inc.,
2002.
Schwarz, Max. Basic Engineering For Builders. Carlsbad , CA : Craftsman Book
Company, 1993.
United States Navy. Basic Machines and How They Work. New York : Dover Publications,
Inc., 1971.
Wing, Charlie. How Your House Works. Kingston , MA : Reed Construction Data,
Inc., 2007.
Medical
Burns, A. August et al. Where Women Have No Doctor. Berkeley , CA : Hesperian,
1997.
Carline, Jan D., Ph.D. et al. Mountaineering First Aid, 4th Edition. Seattle
, WA : The Mountaineers, 1996.
Dickson, Murray. Where There Is No Dentist. Berkeley , CA : Hesperian, 1983.
Forgey, William W., M.D. Wilderness Medicine, 5th Edition. Guilford , CT :
The Globe Pequot Press, 2000.
Nato Handbook. Emergency War Surgery. El Dorado , AR : Desert Publications,
1988.
Werner, David et al. Where There Is No Doctor, revised edition. Berkeley ,
CA : Hesperian, 1992.
Peak Oil
Simmons, Matthew R. Twilight in the Desert. Hoboken , NJ : John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., 2005.
Tertzakian, Peter. A Thousand Barrels A Second. New York : McGraw-Hill, 2006.
Weapons and Combat
Ayoob, Massad. The Gun Digest Book of Combat Handgunnery 6th Edition. Iola
, WI : F + W Publications, 2007.
Clausewitz, Carl Von. On War. London : Penguin Books, 1968.
Cooper, Jeff. Principles of Personal Defense. Boulder , CO : Paladin Press,
2006.
________. To Ride, Shoot Straight, and Speak the Truth. Boulder , CO : Paladin
Press, 1998.
Party, Boston T. Boston’s Gun Bible. Ignacio , CO : Javelin Press, 2002.
Perkins, John et al. Attack Proof. Champaign , IL : Human Kinetics, 2000.
Plaster, Maj. John L., USAR (Ret.). The Ultimate Sniper. Boulder , CO : Paladin
Press, 2006.
United States Marine Corps. Essential Subjects. Arlington , VA : Marine Corps
Institute, 1986.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: A Suggested Reading List »
Odds 'n Sods:
Norman in England suggested a piece of commentary about the Mother of All
Bailouts: The Rescue of the Wealthy
o
o o
Brad E. and Kevin A. both forwarded some bad news from Forbes,
that confirms what the Peak
Oil crowd
has been telling us: Here
comes $500 oil. The law of supply and demand is inescapable. I do, however,
have my doubts about the supply side of the equation. (See, for example, the
arguments presented by the Abiotic Oil proponents.)
o o o
More Odds 'n Sods gathered by Cheryl N., our Economic Editor: Dow
Down 373 Points On Spiking Oil Price, Investor Unease Over Bailout -- Morgan
Stanley To Sell 20% to Mitsubishi UFJ -- G7
Declines US Bailout Scheme -- Dollar
May Be 'Crushed" As Investors Weigh Bailout -- WaMu
Under Pressure -- Dire
Warnings Fail To Sway Senators On Big Bailout; Dow
Down Another 161 -- Holiday
Sales Expected To Be Weak -- Morgan,
Goldman Seek Deposits; Regional Banks
To Become 'Lunch' For Larger Banks -- US
Dollar Set To Be Major Casualty of Bailout -- Credit
Crisis Analysis and Conclusion -- Berkshire
(Warren
Buffet) To Invest $5bn In Goldman, Sachs -- Funds
Get Freer Hand In Buying Bank Stakes "The Federal Reserve, unleashing
its latest attempt to inject more cash into the nation's ailing banks, loosened
longstanding rules that had limited
the ability
of buyout firms and private investors to take big stakes in banks." [Cheryl's
Comment: Loosening rules adopted after the Great Depression is what
caused this...how
can loosening
more rules be good?] -- Hedge
Fund
Paulson Discloses Short Sales On UK Banks -- and, Baby
Boomers Delay Retirement.
o o o
Flora recommended a TED Video: Irwin Redlener: How to survive a nuclear
attack
o o o
Eric flagged this: Housing crisis has spread to well-to-do
« The MOAB Accelerates the Inevitable Destruction of the US Dollar |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
Every economy in the world has experienced booms and busts, but somewhere
along the line someone came up with the bright idea of eliminating the busts.
Throughout the 1990s the world experienced a series of economic crisis
in Asia, Mexico, Russia, and even in the US markets that would have been enough
to cleanse the system and restore equilibrium. On each and every occasion the
Fed met the problem head on with the printing press, so a full blown reaction
was avoided thereby creating what I call a “distortion” in the
financial system that would eventually have to be sanitized. What any normal
country would have done after a capital injection is withdraw that capital
once things got better, but the US never did that. They just kept right on
printing much like a drug addict keeps increasing the dosage because the old
amount has less and less affect. Unfortunately, like a drug addict the economy
eventually dies from an overdose, and that’s where we are today. - Enrico
Orlandini
« Five Letters Re: Preparedness Advice for the Parents of a Newborn Infant |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
The MOAB Accelerates the Inevitable Destruction of the US Dollar
Back in March, I coined the acronym MOAB (for
Mother Of All Bailouts), to describe the Federal government's continuously-expanding
response to the global credit collapse. My family has been getting great chuckles
mentioning each time that commentators and legislators start using the
term. These have included Michelle
Malkin, Congressman
Ron Paul, Senator
Richard Shelby, and Joel
Skousen. So now
we are waiting for a pronouncement for Al Gore, that he invented
both the term and the acronym.
The government's virtually uncontrolled bailout spree has now expanded
to more
than 1.5 trillion dollars,
and there is no end in sight. At best, this "buy your way out
of the problem" approach--via
government spending--will result in a decade or more of economic stagnation.
This is
what has
happened in Japan for 15+ years. But at worst, the MOAB will result
in the utter destruction of the US Dollar, through hyperinflation. Unless
our trading
partners
continue to go along with the convenient fiction that the US Dollar has meaningful
substance, then it is all over. I predict that within the next year, the US
Treasury auctions will turn into a farcical comedy . Foreign investors
will start to demand higher and higher yields in order to buy any US Treasury
paper.
Once
that
cycle begins,
the handwriting
will
be on
the wall for the US Dollar.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| The MOAB Accelerates the Inevitable Destruction of the US Dollar »
Five Letters Re: Preparedness Advice for the Parents of a Newborn Infant
Dear Memsahib:
I'd like to suggest exploring the Wear
Your Baby site There are free directions for making your own baby wearing
wraps and free
videos demonstrating different wrapping/carrying styles. The free printable
items have good clear photographs to help in choosing the right fabric for
the job. Now that slings have become poplar and trendy the prices have become
rather
expensive. There is nothing like spending $30+ dollars to find that baby doesn't
like that carrying style or is wrong for momma's back. I'd rather buy fabric
and try different styles (more comfy). If it is a total washout at least the
fabric can be used for other projects. Another benefit is the cost is low enough
a spare can be handy for those oops that come with babies. HTH, - Stephanie
in Arkansas
Jim:
These folks may want to find a way to store and dose antibiotics. Kids develop
infections of all kinds from strep to severe ear infections. In a post-collapse
environment this may be very hazardous health wise. Buying clothes that are
several sizes bigger for the child to grow into is another thought. - Scott S.
Dear Mr. and Mrs. Rawles,
I love your site. I have been reading for a few months now and hope to get
my act http://www.alertpay.com/together here. I am slowly but surely getting
prepared (my Dear Husband thinks I am crazy, but I tell him he will thank
me one day.) I am starting
a homemaker's preparedness section on my site. You know, what if you have
no washer, have to make your own laundry detergent, cleaning supplies. That
kind of thing. So this was right up my alley :)
I have two Babies and I can offer this advice.
1. Lots of pure water for Mom who is nursing. I have a water filter pitcher
that I got on sale and am saving for an emergency.
2. The Nojo Sling is great for Mom who has to nurse/keep baby quiet/put baby
to sleep on the go or in emergency situation. [JWR Adds: The Nojo brand slings
are quite expensive if bought new. But if you shop around, they can be found
in "gently used" condition on eBay or even Craig's
List.] They can double
as blankets and changing pads.
3. Lansinoh Lanolin cream is food rated and is not only good for Mom, but cures
diaper rash and chapped skin.
4. Acidophilus will stop some diarrheas. Garlic
for a natural antibiotic (honey to make it go down for Mom but of course no
honey for Baby.
Baby will get garlic in breast milk), ascorbic acid (buffered Vitamin C) to
cure just about everything.
5. Coconut oil. Not only can you cook with it, you can use it to moisturize
sensitive baby skin, it is a natural sun screen, has anti bacterial and anti
viral properties, works on diaper rash and can help keep away bugs.
6. Bulb syringes. I just got two at Walgreen's [pharmacy store] for about $2
each. They suction noses and [can be used very cautiously to] clean ears. Invaluable
for
when baby is stuffy and can't nurse.
7. Saline nose drops for same thing. I am "thinking" correct me if
I am wrong, that these could double to clean out wounds.
8. Cloth diapers. I don't use them, but have some to use as light weight blankets,
wipe up clothes and for putting in the crook of your arm when you nurses so
baby's face doesn't stick to your arm.
9. Boppy [style sling baby carriers]. Great for nursing anywhere.
(The "Breast Friend" works well for on the go because you can strap it on and
walk if you have to,
otherwise
use
sling)
and
can support baby upward if baby is sick and can help baby sleep.
10. Oatmeal. Great nutrition, easily transported and stored, good for both
Mom and Baby to eat and increases breast milk production
11. Dr. Bronner's soaps are
great, multipurpose soaps the whole family can use. I use the Peppermint to
clean (it deters pests) and brush teeth, wash baby
with Baby soap. Can also use to clean dishes, as a shampoo and to wash clothes.
[JWR
Adds: I have used a 4 ounce squeeze bottle of Dr.
Bronner's Peppermint Castile Soap for many years, mostly on backpacking
trips. A little bit goes a long way!]
12. Rubbing alcohol to cheaply and effectively disinfect everything.
Hope any
of this helps. I tried to think in terms of compact and multipurpose. We
are in a crowded town, in a small apartment and I am doing what I can and asking
God
to help
me (and trusting him) with the rest. Keep up the good work! Many Blessings
- Ace
Jim and Memsahib:
As a mother of 13 children, I am very familiar with prepping
for newborns, toddlers, children and teens :-).
Our children range in age from 19 years old to 10 months old, (and one on the
way)
Here is what I have stocked up on for the little ones:
==Acetaminophen suppositories (I buy the baby, junior and adult doses).
They are wonderful for when a fussy baby or child will not swallow medicine.
A real life saver that has helped me keep my sanity.
==Children's Motrin and Tylenol liquid. When my babies reached 20 pounds, my
doctor said that they could receive a 3/4 dose of liquid Children's Motrin
if the fever was not coming down. I recently had to do this and thank goodness
it worked! Keep plenty of both liquids on hand..it goes fast.
==Pacifiers. If your child likes a pacifier, you don't want to be without one
in the middle of the night or during an emergency. I once had a child scream
for seven hours until I gave in and went to the store. I have gotten smarter
with age and now I have stocked up (I have several dozen in my storage).
==Bottle Liners, extra Nipples, extra holders. If you use a bottle for breast
milk or formula, you'll need these. You can never have to many. Any baby items
are good for barter.
==Humidifiers. I always have at least 6 new humidifiers in storage. A baby
can be miserable with a cold.
==Baby Food. I try to give the baby what we are eating..but if we are on the
road or are eating something the baby probably can't handle (chili, etc), I
whip out the baby food. I keep a years worth on hand.
==Suppositories (Glycerin). Babies do get constipated on occasion. I also keep "Baby
Lax" on hand (a liquid).
==Pedialyte [oral rehydration solution]. A must! Keep plenty
of it on hand. It could be a life saving item!
==Extra blankets, crib sheets, etc.
==Baby shampoo. I prefer not to use adult shampoo on the younger children as
it will eventually get in their eyes and they'll pitch a fit that'll raise
the hair on a bald man.
==Toothbrushes and special Toothpaste (non-fluoride as they will swallow it!)
I have them for the babies as soon as they get their first tooth. I get extra
for all age groups.
==Next size up in clothing. They grow fast! Thank goodness we have hand me
downs as all my children (except one) are boys!
==Books. Babies love books. Get them now as you'll be surprised at how young
an age they will enjoy listening to you read!
==Toys. Age appropriate toys. The more simple, the better (blocks are a favorite
around here).
I'm sure I have more items I could add to this list as we follow the "Alpha
Strategy"...but it's time to make lunch.
God bless all of you! You are an inspiration! In God's Love, - Walt and Wendy,
and our 12 (soon to be 13) blessings from God
Folks,
First, for those who have children, blessings.
Second, in addition to diapers, do not forget more blankets, bedding, a good
crib and a safely portable car set/trailer system / transport system depending
on your transportation options.
Stock up on supplies for milk, baby food and Pedialyte. (Gatorade is
not for small children). Contact your medical provider about
infant medical supplies, study and train up for infant CPR. What ever supplies
you have on
hand, add to them and remember rotate, rotate rotate. Formula is not cheap,
and does not have a long shelf life. As to diapers, well that is up to you
to choose, but A supply of disposables and cotton washables would be a good
idea. The disposables are not cheap.
Adult health products are not for children, including pain relievers and the
like, so please consult your pediatrician and your pharmacist. Also review
your home for hazards, like exposed electrical sockets and the like. - TFB
JWR Adds: As mentioned before in SurvivalBlog, there are
recipes
available for make-it-yourself Oral Rehydration Solution. (ORS). Be
sure to
print
out
a hard
copy for your
file. It could be a lifesaver!
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Five Letters Re: Preparedness Advice for the Parents of a Newborn Infant »
Odds 'n Sods:
Eric sent a link to a London Telegraph article: Financial
crisis: Default by the US government is no longer
unthinkable.
o o o
Wayne S. suggested this article: Great
Myths of the Great Depression. Wayne's comment: "I found it to be
a great educational primer on the Great Depression. It is interesting to draw
parallels
with today’s tumultuous times and MOAB with the government policies of
the 1929-to-1941 Depression years."
o o o
Eric also found this important tidbit in The Des Moines Register: Brasher:
Corn,
soybean supply on brink of shortages. Stock up!
o o o
Laura C. flagged this: What Would Ayn Rand Have Done?
o o o
I've been getting first hand and press
reports from the southeastern
US of gas stations running out of gas. In some locales the little gas that is available
selling for $5+ per gallon. It is a good thing that most SurvivalBlog readers
have a reserve on hand. Use it wisely.
« Note from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"When we add an additional trillion dollars to the debt, the burden of
the taxpayer, sooner or later there's got to be a reckoning... This
is the mother of all bailouts." - Sen.
Richard Shelby, R.-Alabama, ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee, Sept
21,
2008
« Even Chuck Schumer Thinks that We Might Be in Deep Schumer |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Note from JWR:
The high bid in the SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction is now at $770. The auction for a large
mixed lot that includes: A Special
Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95)
This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans--one can
of each of the following: Mixed Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden
Peas, Mixed Peppers, Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels
10 Pack Combo (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These items
were donated by Jan at Healthy
Harvest Foods. An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a
box of Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), with a combined value
of
approximately
$100. These items
were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com.
A NukAlert radiation
detector (a $160 value), donated by at KI4U.com.
And,
a Katadyn
VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail value.)
The
auction ends on Monday October 15, 2008. Please e-mail us
your bid.
« Letter Re: An Expedient Toilet Flushing Method for Grid-Down Situations |Main| Note from JWR: »
Even Chuck Schumer Thinks that We Might Be in Deep Schumer
A front page headline in The New York Times on Friday shouted: Congressional
Leaders Stunned by Warnings. The article began: "It was a room
full of people who rarely hold their tongues. But as the Fed chairman, Ben
S. Bernanke, laid out the potentially devastating ramifications of the financial
crisis before congressional leaders on Thursday night, there was a stunned
silence at first." Later in the piece, it mentions: "...the
congressional leaders were told “that we’re literally maybe days
away from a complete meltdown of our financial system, with all the implications
here
at home
and globally.'"
U.S. Senator Charles Schumer (Democrat, of New York) gave his impression of
the meeting with Bernanke: “When you listened to him describe it, you
gulped." In
a another interview with NPR, Schumer said of the unfolding credit crisis: "If
we wait too long, the floor could come out and everything could crash down.
"
It
was Schumer, BTW, that first proposed creating a new agency that would be analogous
to
the
Resolution
Trust
Corporation (RTC), during the Savings and Loan Crisis of the late 1980s. Parenthetically,
you will also remember Schumer as the inspiration for a couple of
my pet expressions ("Deep Schumer", and "When The Schumer Hits
The Fan"),
that I coined back in the early 1990s, to avoid making crude scatological references.
Given Senator Schumer's horribly leftist and gun-grabbing voting record, I
make no apologies for enshrining
"Schumer"
and "WTSHTF"
in the SurvivalBlog Glossary.
Clearly, we are living in perilous times. I predict that the markets will
be in rollercoaster mode for the foreseeable future, with news stories and
government pronouncements precipitating some huge swings.
At this juncture I think that I should repeat some
thoughts that I posted back in March of this year, since our newest readers
probably missed it. This was posted back when I first started warning in earnest
about
the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB). As you'll see, most of my predictions were
correct:
Last week, the mainstream media described the latest expansion
of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB),
but they politely refrained from calling this what it
is: socialism, plain and simple. The grand plan, as it stands now, is
to bail out not just consumer banks, but also investment banks, with taxpayer
dollars.
They are effectively making our life savings and our future earnings surety for
a
bunch of idiotic contrapreneurs'
loans on everything from flat top duplexes
to McMansions.
These
were
houses
that the contrapreneurs
bought,
that they could never
really afford unless the market continued to rise at an artificial
rate. They bought these houses with the intention of "flipping" them,
but then the
market topped out, and the "easy money" party ended.
At
least
those hated fascist dictators like Mussolini
had
the
common
sense
to
nationalize
viable,
productive
companies.
But now Ben Bernanke
is
busy
nationalizing a
slew of corporations with negative net worth. This is absolute lunacy!
[Some deleted, for brevity.]
All of these calls for regulation, new government agencies, and greater scrutiny
might outwardly sound well-reasoned, but they ignore some inescapable underlying
problems: We have
a fiat currency
that is based
on debt, we have a banking system with fictional fractional reserves,
we have a derivatives
market that is a $500 trillion casino, and
we have a national treasury that is backed by wishful thinking--certainly not
by anything tangible.
The other key point that seems to have escaped the mainstream media is that
this new regulatory power is being handed to the Federal Reserve, which is
a private
banking cartel,
not a government agency. They are no more "Federal" than
the Federal Express parcel courier company. So this isn't just socialism.
This is nothing short of corporate-controlled
socialism--where a handful of banking corporations are given access to the
Federal tax coffers
to bail
out
other
institutions
and
then, even further, they are given sweeping regulatory powers. This
power grab is deemed "necessary" by circumstances that the Federal
Reserve itself created!
Somewhere, somehow,
somebody stands to make a lot of money in this process. Cui bono?
I'll wager that it won't be the American taxpayers that benefit.
As economist
Mish Shedlock observes, this is like putting the
Fox in Charge of the Henhouse. Mish summed up the current mess succinctly: "The
biggest, most reckless credit experiment in history has started to implode.
It's far too late to stop a complete systemic collapse now. Granting new powers
to the agency most responsible for the mess simply does not make any sense."
Secrecy is another concern. In a recent e-mail, SurvivalBlog reader
KAF commented: "We should be greatly concerned about the fact that the
Federal Reserve has provided public release anonymity to the institutions who are taking
'30 day' never ending loans. We'll now never know if the institutions we
deal with are truly solvent and credible, This new"confidentiality" allows
the Fed. to manipulate reserves on a routine basis. We'll never know if this
country's Federal Reserve is or is not heading for bankruptcy
unless we use the tests of consumer spending and commodity pricing as indicators." She
hit the nail on the head. At the same time that the press is howling for "greater
transparency" in banking, and writing exposes of "predatory lending
practices",
the Powers That Be are drawing the veil of secrecy over lending institutions.
They'd rather treat us like mushrooms--keeping us in the dark and feeding us
barn waste--than risk a panic by letting the public know the real depth of
the liquidity
crisis and its collateral effects.
Instead of government platitudes, do you want some figures to chew
on? Look at this
Federal Reserve web page. The negative numbers at the bottom of the "Non-loaned
Reserves" column speak volumes. Without the newly-created Federal Reserve "emergency
lending
mechanisms",
many
banks would be absolutely bankrupt. As you can see, the bankers are swimming
in red ink. There is now a huge risk of bank runs, but this threat is being
ignored by the mainstream media. Mark my words: There are bank runs
coming.
The fact is that the global lending system is essentially broken. Artificially
lowering interest rates won't fix it, when bankers are afraid to lend.
As I've previously noted, the bankers are afraid to lend because so much re-packaging
and reshuffling
of
debt has gone on in the past seven years that nobody knows who owes
what to whom,
and precisely what assets are underlying these exotic debt "packages." Meanwhile,
the bankers have learned that the big insurance firms like Fitch, Moody's
and
S&P were in on the swindle. We now know that they colluded with their
mortgage firm buddies to inflate assets and
deflate
risks in
a
masterpiece
of legerdemain that would make Enron's accountants proud.
The bottom line is the the entire world economy is is in deep, deep trouble.
Without financing, the Big Machine is grinding to a halt. The
next few years will probably see the economy plunge into a deep recession,
if not a full blown
depression. The current headlines are just a foreshadowing of the
real crisis to come. The MOAB will grow and grow, eventually bailing out far
more than just
banks. There will be brokerage houses, insurance firms, S&Ls,
credit unions,
Fannie
Mae, and Freddie
Mac, and possibly even muni bonds
and pension funds are all lined up, ready to reach into our wallets.
Once the government starts down the slippery slope of bailout-socialism schemes,
they will perforce spread to more and more institutions. And, as I've
previously noted, the public
coffers will be insufficient to
cover
the
inestimable
costs of the MOAB. So this mean that Uncle Sam will monetize the
difference. They'll just create the needed "dollars" out of thin
air. This will be outrageously inflationary, at all levels.
[More deleted, for brevity.]
All of these macro-level implications might seem fairly abstract, so let me
put them in real world terms and take the risk of extrapolating on some trends
that I've observed: There will be
a recession, and it will be deep, and long-lasting. A recession will mean
that there will be some big corporate layoffs. Be
ready. There
will be bank runs and banking "holidays". Be ready. There
will be huge flows of "bailout" funds that will effectively nationalize
many industries. Be ready. There will probably be
a stock market collapse. Be
ready. There will be a further collapse in residential real estate
that will make the recent declines seem small, by comparison. Be
ready. Credit delinquencies and foreclosures (on car loans, home loans,
credit card bills, etc.) will dramatically increase. Be ready. There
will be a collapse of the commercial real estate market.
Be ready. Even though the credit available for IPOs and
private mergers and acquisitions has dried
up, there
will
be news
of
some
large and
seemingly
inexplicable acquisitions in the near future, all sanctioned by and
in some cases, underwritten by, and even funded by,
the Federal government. Be
ready. There will be shortages of key
commodities including fuel and food. Be
ready. Strapped for cash, America's highway, rail, water, sewer, telecommunications,
and power infrastructures will degenerate. Be ready. There
will be mass inflation of the US Dollar that will devalue any dollar denominated investments. Be
ready.
And now, to further extrapolate, (with a lower level of confidence): All of
the aforementioned economic dislocation and surging inflation might trigger
mass protests, riots, looting, and arson in the cities. Be ready. There
may then be massive out-migration from the cities. Be ready. Wars
have been known to follow close on the heels of depressions and financial
crises, so there may be
a war, possibly big enough to require another draft. Be ready.
As I've written many times before, the real lynchpin to worry about is the
power grid. If the grid goes down, then all bets are off. Be vigilant,
be well-stocked with a deep larder, and be self-sufficient. Store
extra for charity. If you can afford to, establish a survival
retreat in a lightly-populated
region, and if possible, live there year-round.
I still stand by those recommendations. The time to get ready was yesterday.
« Letter Re: Finding a Mineshaft or a Gemeinschaft |Main| Even Chuck Schumer Thinks that We Might Be in Deep Schumer »
Letter Re: An Expedient Toilet Flushing Method for Grid-Down Situations
Salutations,
[In a recent letter to SurvivalBlog,] Jeff in Ohio mentioned filling the toilet
tank with water in order to flush it, however, this is not necessary. You
can
flush
by pouring
about
a gallon
directly into the bowl. (Don't dribble it in, but also don't get carried away
and slosh it in at once . . . unless you really want to use more water to mop
the floor.) I learned this from my military service in Okinawa in the late
70s where we had water rationing with running water only every other day. On
water days we filled 55-gallon drums with water and then used one-gallon coffee
cans to flush the rest of the time. (If you live in an area that tends to lose
power, you do fill your bathtubs with water prior to storm onsets, right?)
Give it a try today, for the sake of familiarity. There's nothing like indoor
plumbing, until you lose it. - Home's Cool Mom
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: An Expedient Toilet Flushing Method for Grid-Down Situations »
Letter Re: Finding a Mineshaft or a Gemeinschaft
JWR
I think that your "Mineshaft
or a Gemeinschaft" article was especially true
and timely. However, there are some problems [with living in a community].
Even given how imminent I personally fear
financial
Armageddon is, there is still time that it might be a nuclear event or a
disease pandemic, etc., all of which demand slightly different responses.
There is no possible way one or even five individuals can be totally self-sufficient.
Even the hermits come out once a year or so to trade for things like salt
or ammo, or whatever. Personally, I think a small community of up to 300
varied skills, pooling their resources and pulling together towards a common
goal,
is ideal. Still small enough that everyone knows everyone else, and has their
own estimate of the reliability of every other person, so a community can
be totally and realistically democratic.
However, I do think that the more remote the better, and the
less known publicly about it the better. In my studies of the downfall of empires,
it is clear
that officialdom is the greatest thief of all. Anything they can find, either
through records or investigation is subject to their attention. In my own case,
no one, even me, knows where I will land. (Although I do have a variety of
potential areas in mind.) In terms of being found, all are very remote. Your
comment about a road or trail being a roadmap to your retreat is very accurate.
I am having a problem directing attention away from my trail in for moving
in equipment and supplies. Given my bush experience, if I get a few weeks before
someone comes looking, I think I can cover that base using game trails. Satellite
[image]s are definitely a problem. But hopefully, a little smudge that is difficult
to get to will either not be noticed, or deemed not worth the effort. Hopefully,
during the first year, there won’t be even much of a footprint.
My greater fear is that if someone knows I am preparing, and where, then the
story is sure to be embellished, and suddenly I become a worthwhile target.
If I
have the very basics underway, surely people (who have survived) will see the
benefits and be anxious to join. My theory is that most people will stick to
the roads in the early stages at least. I intend to be remote and
difficult to get to, and I hope to look like something else, not worth bothering
about.
The few [that find us] that are experienced woodsmen will likely be great
community member. Otherwise, I can hand pick my
community
members
before they even know they are being considered, or any other details or hints.
By
that time, if my assessment of the civil distress to come is somewhere near
target, I am sure that the survivors will have the most crucial element of
being good community members, [namely that] they are survivors,
not theorists. They will likely have some other warts that are difficult
to deal
with, but
a common
interest
will hopefully smooth that path somewhat.
I do have many problems with my scenario and plans, but depending on the
start date, I think the first 18 months will be the worst. If I/we survive
that length
of time, we will probably survive much longer. - Allen C.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Finding a Mineshaft or a Gemeinschaft »
Odds 'n Sods:
Nanny State Britannia run amok: YouTube
bans knife and gun videos in England. I suppose that this ban will also
include instructional and safety videos, but worry not: They tell us that
it is all for the public good! (Tut, tut! We mustn't "glamorise!")
OBTW, I think that using a third party web browsing portal such as Anonymizer will
probably remove any do-gooder impediments. (And, BTW, it is
wise for everyone to use Anonymizer,
just on general principle, to prevent leaving an audit trail of your web
browsing. Think OPSEC!)
o o o
From
Cheryl, our Economic Editor: Bush,
Congress Working on $700 Billion Bailout -- 12th
Bank Failure of the Year (AmeriBank Inc.) -- Paulson
Commits Trillions of Dollars to the MOAB ("The global mass exodus
from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt is about to begin: Do not get caught
in the
stampede.") -- US
Gov't Disaster Fix-it Plan Send Stock Markets Soaring -- US
Economy Stares Into The Abyss -- Money
Market Accounts Shaken ("This week, shareholders pulled more than
60 percent of the assets from Reserve Primary Fund, which on Wednesday became
the first money-market fund
in 14 years
to expose investors to losses.") -- GM
Tapping Remainder $3.5 Billion Credit Line ("Everyone is running to
cash, hoarding it, and we're not out of the woods yet,'' Mikelic said. ``There's
a little less pressure with the government stepping
in. But the government needs to keep printing money, printing securities, even
if there is negative yield.'')
o o o
I spotted this linked at Drudge: Almost
Armageddon: Markets Were 500 Trades From A Meltdown. The $1.00 Net Asset
Value (NAV) barrier for money market funds is practically sacrosanct. The
Fed has promised to continue to step in whenever a $1.00 NAV is in danger.
But
given
the sheer
scale of money market investing, I wonder how long that this can go on. I
therefore urge SurvivalBlog readers to divest from any uninsured money market
accounts, ASAP.
Reinvest those funds in tangibles and perhaps some Treasury Inflation-Protected
Security (TIPS). Most other US Treasury paper is risky, since US Dollar inflation
is very likely to accelerate radically in the next few years, threatening
the real value of any investment that is denominated
in dollars.
o o o
Several readers mentioned this Politico piece by Mike Allen: Foreign
banks may get help. I must ask: How big can the Mother of All Bailouts
(MOAB)
get
if it
also includes foreign entities?
« Finding a Mineshaft or a Gemeinschaft |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"I didn't know how long we'd have together... Who does?" - Harrison
Ford as Rick Deckard, in Blade Runner (1982). Screenplay by Hampton
Fancher and David Peoples, based on the novel by Philip K. Dick
« Letter Re: Comments on the 2008 Financial Collapse and the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Finding a Mineshaft or a Gemeinschaft
I've observed that survivalists tend to fall into two schools of thought: those that are
loners and those that are community-minded. The loners would prefer to disappear
into the wilds and essentially find a mineshaft to crawl into--somewhere they
can lay low, whilst things sort themselves out, back in civilization. That
is both a naive and selfish starting point for preparedness. Short of moving
to
the roadless interior of Alaska, it is not realistic to expect
that you can find a remote rural property where you'd have no contact
with outsiders for an extended period of time. We
live in the era of Google Earth, where there few truly secret hideaways.
I recently read that
Mel
Gibson couldn't buy total privacy. Even if you live off-grid, if there
is a road leading to your house, eventually someone will find you.
I have only
seen a handful properties in the lower 48 States that I consider truly isolated.
One of them was a ranch in the Basin and Range country, about 50 miles out
Lovelock, Nevada. (It was actually 15 miles east of the tiny hamlet of Unionville,
Nevada, (which is a 37 mile drive out of Lovelock) but I doubt that many
people have heard of it). This was a 200 acre parcel that I evaluated as
a potential
retreat
purchase
for
one
of my
consulting
clients. (Note: I can describe it here, because the client eventually selected
a different
ranch in another county.)
The
road
leading
into the property
traversed a dry lake bed, then went through a full section BLM land
on a very dusty lame excuse for a road. Then, as the road started up into
the hills
it would appear
to a casual observer to just
become a rocky trail. But in fact it was in fact drivable in a 4WD vehicle,
and the condition of the road actually improved, farther up the canyon. The
upper end of
the
property
had a surprising
number of trees (including some pretty cottonwoods) and a large creek. But
that property was a genuine rarity. There, if they
were careful about noise and light discipline, someone could conceivably
build
a
retreat and have it go entirely un-noticed indefinitely for anyone approaching
by road. (And, BTW, it would have been a terribly long way to drive into
town, especially in
these
days
of
high
gas prices.) But even with a retreat that is out of line of sight from any
road, it would still still be visible from the air, and from Google Earth.
There
is no such thing as total privacy.
I can safely say that 99% of SurvivalBlog readers will never own a truly
remote retreat. For the rest of us, we will be on a recognizable road,
and we will have
neighbors. And we will have the occasional Jehovah's Witnesses come wandering
by to hand us copies of The Watchtower and extol their bad doctrine.
Resign yourself to that fact. Having neighbors generally necessitates being neighborly.
More about that, follows.
The German word for community is Gemeinschaft. This word describes
both a community of people and their collective will. From the perspective
of disaster preparedness, one
of the positive aspects of community-mindedness is what the Germans call Kampfgeist (fighting
spirit), or what the Boers call laager spirit.
I've alluded to this before in SurvivalBlog, as a component of the "We/They
Paradigm." The
downside of this is the risk of developing xenophobia and racial bigotry--which
I, along with most SurvivalBlog
readers, abhor. But the desirable side of Kampfgeist is that
unifies a community in defending itself against outside foes. Kampfgeist is
most often seen in small communities, but on rare occasions it can even be
seen on the scale of a metropolis, where every able-bodied
citizen pitched in. This was best illustrated in the defense of Stalingrad,
in World War II. The city was defended by a large portion of the local Russian
citizenry. (There, there were some phenomenal manifestations of Kampfgeist.
The one there that comes immediately to mind is the perhaps apocryphal creation
of propagandists:
As
the German army advanced on the city, the employees of the local tank factory
personally
manned and went into battle with the very last T-34 tanks that came off the
assembly line.
I have long been an advocate of setting up small covenant
communities, inhabited
by like-minded people. Consider my vote for Gemeinschaft, not a mineshaft.
The "mineshaft" is essentially a myth. I'll have more comments on covenant
communities in an upcoming article.
« Letter Re: Preparedness Advice for the Parents of a Newborn Infant |Main| Finding a Mineshaft or a Gemeinschaft »
Letter Re: Comments on the 2008 Financial Collapse and the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
Hi Jim,
This [current economic news] is nauseating. Now, not only are we in the insurance
business, but we the taxpayer are going to be forced to purchase all of the
bad and recklessly
created debt generated over the last eight years. We know it's bad, it's even
been called "toxic debt". We're not going to be given a choice on
whether or not
we want
to purchase it. It's being purchased in our name and we have no say about it.
I can think of no better definition of socialism.
If this is not the end of the world as we know it, it certainly is the end
of our once great country as we knew it.
Seeing all of the pundits saying that this is a wonderful idea, I am reminded
of a quote from Star Wars III, Revenge of the Sith, when Padmé Amidala
says, "So
this is how liberty dies... with thunderous applause." Regards, - Rod
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Comments on the 2008 Financial Collapse and the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) »
Letter Re: Preparedness Advice for the Parents of a Newborn Infant
Mr. & Mrs. Rawles,
I hope you and the family are doing well. I have been reading your
blog for over a year now and it has been quite helpful. We are making our way
slowly in our preps but now I have a new issue. My wife has blessed our home
with a child. We had been trying for 12 years with no luck, I guess God decided
it was time! My daughter is now two weeks old and with all the excitement
I hadn't put any thought into preps for a new born. Maybe the Memsahib could
give me some direction. Thanks so much for what you do! Also I'm a 10 cent
challenge subscriber and it's time for me to renew. I'll be getting that
done soon! - Jason in Missouri
The Memsahib Replies: Congratulations! The most important
thing is that your wife breast feeds your baby! I hope that she is doing so.
The first week or so is the hardest.
If she is having
difficulties do let her know it will get better. The La
Leche League is
the best resource for help with breast feeding difficulties.
If you hope God will bless you with more babies, you ought to be prepared!
You can order home birth childbirth kits from a number of vendors in
the US,
and in the UK.
Your biggest concern will be diapers. Depending on circumstances (availability
of spring or well water and grid, generator, or photovoltaic power to run a
washing machine) you will have to decide between cloth diapers or disposable
diapers.
When I nursed my newborns, I often changed diapers more than 10 times per
day, to prevent diaper rash! (My family has fair, sensitive skin.) Untreated,
diaper
rash can lead to serious infections. Proper
hygiene
is crucial.) Choose you diapering method and then stock
up,
in quantity!
The very most useful items in my experience are:
For childbirth:
Sterilized cord clamp
Betadine solution
A bulb syringe
Bed liners (like those made for the disabled, available at medical supply
houses)
For your newborn:
Plan on breast feeding, but as a back up consider stocking up on canned infant
formula
Lanolin cream for your nursing wife
Petroleum jelly ad zinc ointment as diaper rash preventatives
Diapers and diaper covers,
Multiple"onesees", sleepers, or saque gowns would be a real blessing.
They can be found at yard sales for maybe 25 cents per outfit.or less if you
don't
care
about stains. As you have already discovered babies spit up a lot and diapers
leak. In a post-TEOTWAWKI world, when washing and drying baby clothes won't
be so easy, then having multiple changes in every size would make
daily life easier.
I also would never be without a front pack infant carrier.
I'd appreciate other SurvivalBlog readers chiming in (via e-mail)
with childbirth and infant care suggestions, including recommend brand names
of useful products.
I should also mention that I highly recommend the childbirth book
"Heart and Hands". And, although not from a
Christian perspective (It has Hippie/Flower Child perspective!), the
book "Spiritual
Midwifery" presents
childbirth as a natural process--not
just as a medical
condition.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Preparedness Advice for the Parents of a Newborn Infant »
Odds 'n Sods:
From the folks over at The Oil Drum: How
Much
Will Gustav and Ike Affect Gas Supplies? An Update
o o o
More on the MOAB, from The Wall Street Journal: U.S.
Bailout Plan Calms Markets, But Struggle Looms Over Details
o o o
Another slug of cheer from SurvivalBlog's Economic Editor: Stocks
Soar As Investors Look To Gov't Rescue Plan -- Current
List of Failed Banks (another bank failure was announced on Friday) --
Wall
Street Dumps Mortgage Corruption on Taxpayers -- New
Wall Street Crisis Will Create a New Financial World Order -- Forecast:
US Dollar Could Plunge 90%.
o o o
Kevin A,. recommended this piece of commentary from Charles Hugh Smith: Restoring
the Con in Confidence
« Letter Re: Anticipating Another Federal Ban on Semi-Auto Rifles and Full Capacity Magazines |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Mr. President, we must not allow a mineshaft gap!" - George C.
Scott as Gen. 'Buck' Turgidson , in Dr. Strangelove, 1964. (Screenplay
by by Stanley Kubrick, Terry Southern and Peter George.)
« Letter Re: Recommendation for the Cool Tools Web Site |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Letter Re: Anticipating Another Federal Ban on Semi-Auto Rifles and Full Capacity Magazines
Hello Mr. Rawles,
I am assuming that no matter who wins the presidency, we are probably looking
at the next assault weapons ban in about a year (if TEOTWAWKI doesn't
happen first). I don't recall exactly what the effect of the last ban was on
pre-ban
guns, but I assume the prices of pre-ban AR-15s
rose dramatically? If that is the case, would it be wise to purchase several
AR-15 lower receivers now,
with
the possibility of selling them at a profit after the ban is in place (since
they will then be pre-ban)? The relatively low price of a stripped AR-15 lower
[receiver] [around $120, or less, in quantity] seems to offer an interesting
opportunity, since I could buy 10 lowers for only $1,000, and I'm assuming
this is the part
that
would
really
increase
in value.
I already have a number of ARs and other guns for personal use, so I'm considering
this mainly as a potential investment.
Also, as a side note, what is your opinion
in investing in foreign currency? In particular, I see Everbank has a CD which
lets you purchase Australian,
New Zealand, South African, and Canadian dollars (currencies dependant on commodities).
Obviously such an investment would be useless after a complete collapse...
but if we just had severe inflation?
I've been prepping for survival situations for a while now, just recently
started thinking about these other scenarios as well (extreme inflation, etc).
Thanks, - Dylan
JWR Replies: When the US Congress passed the so-called
"assault weapon" ban (circa 1994-to-2004), the BATF came out with an edict
that stripped receivers that
had been made before
the ban,
but that were assembled
into completed rifles after the ban would not be
legal build in a pre-ban configuration. So that nixes your low-cost "hedging
on potential legislation" investment idea. If
you
are worried about a Democrat in the White House and the advent of a new ban,
then I think that investing in full capacity magazines is a far better investment.
You will probably triple or quadruple your money. See
this
piece in the SurvivalBlog archives for my detailed recommendations: The
Falling
Dollar--Sheltering Your Assets in Steel and Alloy Tangibles.
As for foreign currencies, since virtually all national currencies
are now issued by fiat (un-backed by metallic specie), they are all
doomed to inflation. The only question is, which currencies will suffer the least from
inflation? With that in mind, I can only reiterate my long-standing recommendation: tangibles,
tangibles, tangibles. Buy your practical tangibles first (such as
productive farm land, common caliber ammunition, and full capacity magazines),
and then, as your budget permits, follow that up with
some
barterable precious metals (such as pre-1965 US
"junk" silver coinage). And if you are wealthy, then move on to buying gold
bullion, such as Krugerrands, Canadian
Maple Leafs, or American Eagles.
« Three Letters Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio |Main| Letter Re: Anticipating Another Federal Ban on Semi-Auto Rifles and Full Capacity Magazines »
Letter Re: Recommendation for the Cool Tools Web Site
Hello -
Survival Blog readers might be interested in the Cool
Tools web site and e-mail
newsletter. The site was originated by Kevin Kelly, who edited Whole
Earth Review in the 1980s and also put together several versions of
The Whole Earth Catalog,
Cool
Tools offers
one new "Cool Tool" per day.
Far from just being gadgets, a Cool Tool "can be any book, gadget, software,
video, map, hardware, material, or web site that is tried and true." All
submissions are reader reviewed, they are not just regurgitations of product
literature.
There are good recommendations in many categories that might be of interest
to Survival Blog readers. For example, backpacking (improvised shelters, stoves,
maps), dwellings (building underground homes, yurts, building your home yourself),
homesteading, edibles, vehicles (like the Kawasaki
KLR 650) and more. A recent
entry was from a reader who has been experimenting with alcohol stoves.
Thanks for your work on SurvivalBlog! - John in Michigan
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Recommendation for the Cool Tools Web Site »
Three Letters Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio
Hello Jim,
This note is in reference to the letter from Melanie and Rick in
Columbus about the woman who never thought of using the grill to cook. I had
a similar experience with my mother-in-law. While we had power and water, she
had lost hers. I offered to bring buckets of water to her house so she could
manually refill the toilet tank to flush with(she has septic).
Not only did she not think of that, she couldn't understand the concept. She
ended up going to a hotel for a couple of days. People like this will not last
long in a prolonged crisis. Just goes to show the most critical piece of gear
is your brain and knowledge. Take care, - Jeff in Ohio
Hi Jim,
I just finished reading Melanie and Rick's letter and what they faced during
their 'hurricane' event in Columbus. The conditions they experienced sound
very similar to what I related to you was occurring in Cincinnati a few days
ago. I just wanted to make a few comments regarding the need for self-defense
and owning a gun to do so. Rick was concerned about someone who was driving
by coming back to 'liberate' his generator. That would concern me too, so here
are a couple of my thoughts on the situation. First, it is a good idea to conceal
the fact that you have power when the rest of your neighbors don't and it's
pretty obvious at night. So close the blinds, black out the windows and do
what you can to conceal the fact that you have power. Second, do what you can
to muffle the sound of your generator with sound baffles or a soundproof enclosure.
Third, "nail it down" and secure it as Rick did with chains and locks.
Now to the more important issue, protecting the generator using deadly force.
A couple of years ago when concealed carry was first permitted in Ohio, I completed
the required course to get my permit. While not a lawyer, I do remember the
most important lesson taught regarding the law in Ohio is this; you can use
a firearm to protect human life, but you may not use a firearm to protect private
property. So to Rick's point, if he did have a gun and used it to protect his
generator from a would be thief and actually injured or killed them during
the event, he could be prosecuted should he cause injury or death to the intruder.
It does go without saying however, if Rick was threatened and feared for his
life or the life of someone in his family while and intruder was trying to
steal the generator, he could defend his or their life with deadly force. Personally,
I always feel my life is in immediate danger anytime someone invades my home,
regardless of their intentions, but simply threatening someone with bodily
harm using a firearm is also currently illegal and depending upon the circumstances
and the court and lawyers involved, one could potentially face some time in
state provided accommodations. There have been a few cases reported where people
defended their property by shooting a fleeing intruder in the back while trying
to escape and were found guilty of assault with a deadly weapon. For someone
to be attacking you they must be facing you. However, one could certainly detain
the intruder for the police if the police could be successfully contacted (communications/availability
might be an issue) and would actually show up to make an arrest.
With this said, I believe everyone should own and trained to safely use a firearm(s).
When the defecation impacts the rotating oscillator the laws may not change,
but the circumstances will definitely change for the worst...so when you have
only seconds to make that life-or-death decision you will be more likely to
successfully do so while waiting for the cops are just minutes, hours or even
days away!
It is essential to be prepared for the worst, but hope - and more importantly,
pray for the best. - Larry in Cincinnati
Sir:
I am an ex-cop, who served in St. Tammany Parish, just above New Orleans.
(On the other side of Lake Pontchartrain). I was there during [Hurricane] Katrina.
Believe me when I say I have many stories to tell, and I am sure I will,
eventually.
However, I have been lurking on your web site for a while, and I had to comment
in a recent post.
The people in Ohio who almost had their generator stolen made me remember a
looter we had in Post-Katrina St. Tammany Parish. He would bring a lawn mower
in the middle of the night, turned on and throttled down, to your house. He
would put it near the generator, and over the course of 10 or so minutes, throttle
it up. Then he would simply turn off the generator and trundle away with it,
leaving a similar noise behind. The cold air from air conditioning would last
long enough for his get-away. If I remember correctly, he stole about 36 generators
before being caught.
We even had a gennie stolen from the Sheriff's LEC (Law Enforcement Complex),
three nights after Katrina. And one of the jail's large generators was given
to the hospital when theirs died. Essentially, hide them, do not use them at
night if you can avoid it, and think about putting a muffler on it to hide
the sound. And buy a gun.
Any questions? Thanks, - Joshua
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Three Letters Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio »
Odds 'n Sods:
Our Economic Editor sent us another huge batch of news and commentary--plenty
for you to digest
over the weekend: But I'll focus on perhaps the most important article, that
confirms my prediction of a gargantuan Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB): Paulson
plan could cost $1 trillion. And now for the rest: Treasury
pulls out stops to support money markets -- Fed,
Central Banks Move to Boost Global Confidence ("Wall Street's
biggest crisis since the Great Depression forced the Federal Reserve and central
banks in other countries to pump billions of dollars into the world's banking
system in an urgent bid to stop further damage.") -- Fed
Quadruples Money Central Banks Can Auction -- Drowning
Fed Swims Against Credit Crisis Tide -- Gold
Largest One-Day Price Rise In History -- AIG
Collapse: Too Awful To Contemplate -- America
Will Need Trillion Dollar Bail-Out -- Russia
Injects $19.6bn To Restore Markets -- Central
Banks Pump $180bn To Ease Strain -- Global
Credit System Suffers Cardiac Arrest on US Crash -- Winter
to Bring Avalanche of Job Losses -- More
Banks to Die -- Investors
Rush Into Gold and Bonds -- Bright
Side of a Total Financial Collapse -- Morgan
Stanley, Sachs Goldman Shares Sink: Fear Spreads -- Crash:
The World As We Know It Is Going Under -- After
Lehman, Banks Jettison Commercial-Property Debt -- 3-Month
T-Bill Rates Lowest Since WWII -- Treasury
to Sell $100 Billion in Bills to Help Fed Balance Sheet -- SEC
Bans Naked Shorting For All Securities -- FDIC
Heading For Failure -- Morgan,
Goldman, HBOS Crashing (WaMu Too) -- Barclays
Buys Lehmans for $1.75bn -- Feds
Shopping For WaMu Buyer -- Bank
of Scotland Faces Its End -- Economist
Recounts Talk With Fed Chairman -- Panic
Grips Credit Markets -- Federal
Bank Insurance Fund Dwindling -- WaMu
Next To Fail? -- It's
The Derivatives, Stupid! -- Hedge
Funds Crash Halifax, HBOS Rescued By Lloyd's TSB -- Credit
Crisis Darkens US Outlook -- Crisis
Seeps Into Everyday Life.
o o o
Anyone with a Saiga 12 gauge shotgun should check out the
new drum magazines from MDArms. They reportedly work very well, and require
less fitting than the Wraithmaker drums that I mentioned in blog previously.
They are also less expensive.
o o o
Welcome to sunspot minimum: NASA
to hold press conference on the state of the sun. (A hat tip to KAF for the link.)
« Observations on a Life on the Gulf Coast During the Hurricane Season |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"If an American is to amount to anything he must rely upon himself, and
not upon the State; he must take pride in his own work, instead of sitting
idle to envy the luck of others. He must face life with resolute courage, win
victory if he can, and accept defeat if he must, without seeking to place on
his fellow
man a responsibility which is not theirs." - Theodore Roosevelt
« Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Practical Preparedness -- Things That Work |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Observations on a Life on the Gulf Coast During the Hurricane Season
Jim,
With [hurricanes] Gustav and Ike paying us a visit, I thought I would send
you a note regarding the importance of self reliance versus shelter life.
Living
in the
Gulf South, hurricanes are something you have to prepare for. Government support
and shelter will not be there for you in the way you might think. Your lack
of supplies or resources when you most need them, depending on the emergency,
could mean a thoroughly miserable experience for you and your family at best;
or [something far] worse if the emergency is wider and deeper in scope. Start
making your preparations now, when they’re not needed immediately and
are readily available. When the time to act arrives, don’t hesitate,
and you will find yourself in safer territory long before the rest of the
unprepared
and
sometimes frantic
crowd.
Hurricanes are simply a part of life in the Gulf South. Out West there are
earthquakes, wildfires and even volcanic activity. Elsewhere in the US we have
to prepare for tornados, blizzards, nor’easters, floods, et cetera. And
these are just what nature can throw at us and often does. Barely a day goes
by where
we are not reading about some unfortunate people caught short in an unexpected
event, and unprepared for [the] emergency. In addition, in today’s world
there are legitimate man-made concerns, such as terrorist activity, industrial
accidents
and the
threat of economic collapse as highlighted in your most entertaining and informative
novel; "Patriots".
In short, I don’t think anybody; anywhere
is 100% immune from some sort of emergency or cataclysmic event. The time to
start
preparing
was yesterday. The time to stop, is never. Always look to improve
and renew your preparations.
Before Hurricane Katrina, I thought that I had my act together. My wife laughed
at how prepared I always was. I took great pride in her labeling me as her
little
Boy Scout.
But I soon found that I wasn’t. After the storm passed I discovered that
the recoil [starter] spring on the generator was broken. (I hadn’t checked
it for the last couple of years). And although I found a way around that, I
only
had
enough gas to run it for a few days. I figured it would all be over quickly
as had been the case with so many other storms that merely brushed by and brought
little more than an inconvenience. My easily prepared food was also limited
to a few days, maybe a week at best. Water I had enough of for a week or two.
I soon realized that I was little better prepared, if at all, than anyone else
on my street. Sure, I was the first one with boards on my windows, and I had
a generator; but that was about it.
Taking it a step further, I had these preparations for myself. My wife and
family had evacuated. In the event there was an emergency where they wouldn’t
be able to evacuate, with generator power for a few days, food and water maybe
the same, we would have found ourselves in dire straights all too quickly with
little or no choice other than to rely on charity. If we were creative, we
might have been able to stretch it out for almost two week, at best.
Cleaning up after a storm and trying to put your life back together requires
a lot of extra calories and is certainly not the time to scrimp together a
minimal diet.
We were lucky, however, in that we had saved money for a grand family vacation
the following year, so there were funds available to take care of everyone
for three weeks while they were evacuated. Fortunately for me, I am a police
officer, so decent hot food and support was available to me. Not to mention
being able to take home a few gallons of gas each day for my generator. Had
I of been Mr. John Q. Public given the same set of circumstances, I would have
been in line for Red Cross meals twice a day before long, and totally without
power unless I went from 8-to-12 hours per day to 2 or 3.
Again, taking it a step further, if my family needed shelter, given either
a lack of funds or the opportunity to evacuate, and unable to stay in my house
due to storm damage, we would have wound up in line for food and spending the
night in the corridors of a local school which is used for [a public] shelter.
I have worked as security at those shelters. Believe me, they are not places
you want
to spend time in, filled with the homeless, near homeless, mentally ill, infirm
and a rough assortment of folks with near nothing to their name.
During [Hurricane] Gustav our city had several shelters, and by design, they
are not comfortable. One shelter where you could bring your pet (in a crate & with food & supplies
only!) had a huge generator. All of the pets enjoyed air conditioning. The
people, housed in a separate area, did not. The other shelters where pets were
strictly not allowed also had no air conditioning. When asking the Red Cross
officials about this, they stated that their rules demanded air conditioning
and 20 square feet of space per pet. For people, no air conditioning was required
and only 15 square feet of space was deemed necessary. They said they didn’t
want the people to be too comfortable where they wouldn’t want to leave.
They achieved this goal ‘handsomely’. The walls of the school corridors
were soon sweating profusely from condensation and pools of water covered the
floor. Anything like sleeping bags, or bags of clothing left on the floor soon
began to absorb water. Even after 24 hours, the smell began to set in. No one
hung around any longer than they absolutely had to. Mission accomplished. Given
different circumstances and recourses, I’m sure they would have been
more accommodating, but I never want to find out first hand.
The local school board was also what I would describe as less than considerate.
At the shelter I worked at, the folks from the Red Cross were told by the principal
that they were limited to the hallways, cafeteria and gym; that the people
requiring shelter could only be from that area – no evacuees from further
afield; and that 12 hours after the storm passed, everyone had to be out. In
short, evacuees found themselves in miserable conditions, and felt unwanted
all round. The Lord should smile on the Red Cross volunteers who actually manned
the shelter as they worked themselves silly to do all they could for the inhabitants,
but try as they might, they simply could not do much to alleviate the miserable
conditions. I never want to find myself there, and refuse to let my family
go through anything remotely like that.
Today I am far more prepared in every respect, and continuing to improve on
my preparations all around. When I first started getting truly prepared, my
family thought I was a little ‘nutty’. Now, in many ways they see
the need, but still see a somewhat eccentric side to me. They were all born
in a time of plenty. A time where we are accustomed to having what we want
and when we want it. Increasingly, the finer things in life are taken for granted
and many segments of society even demand not only their necessities, but the
luxuries of life to be handed to them, gratis. In time of need, the
more sudden, the deeper and prolonged the emergency, the more severe their
reaction to take
what they don’t have and we do have, by any means
necessary.
Hurricanes are relatively small emergencies. Given the scope of [hurricanes
such as] Ike, Gustav, Katrina, or Andrew, for example, some may say they were
anything but
small.
To many, they lost everything. But on the whole, hurricanes produce short lived,
localized emergency conditions which the rest of the country responds to. Given
a far wider reaching event, such as a [large scale] EMP attack,
economic collapse, pandemic etc, the effects could be very widespread over
a far longer period. It wouldn’t
take long for people to realize that no one would be coming to help.
The 911 telephone system wouldn’t
work, or would work less effectively. Shelters, if available, would be hell,
but for
those of us unprepared, we would have little else to fall back on. This, in
large part, is why I prepare. It is why we all should. - DZ in Louisiana
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Observations on a Life on the Gulf Coast During the Hurricane Season »
Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Practical Preparedness -- Things That Work
Jim:
To follow-up on the last two e-mails that you posted from me, here are some
random thoughts that I'd like to share on preparedness for when the Schumer
Hits
the Fan
(WTSHTF):
Use an eyeglasses "leash" (lanyard) to prevent the loss of glasses and reduce
the risk of damage.
Buy janitorial-size rolls os toilet paper, without perforations. Each roll
is 1,000 feet long, and a box of 12 rolls measures about two feet square.
These take up just a fraction of the room required to store the same length
of toilet paper in standard household rolls.
Use a kiddie-type pool to collect water from rainwater downspouts. The pools
with hard-plastic sides and vinyl bottoms are fairly durable. A six foot diameter
pool that is 15 inches deep holds 211 gallons of water.
Light-emitting diode (LED) lights are superior to traditional [filament] bulb
designs. They last much longer and are much more resistant to impact. When
used LEDs, batteries last much longer. LED headlights are close to ideal for
doing chores, since they keep your hands free. Tactical use requires a hand-held
or
weapon-mounted
light [with an intermittent switch.]
Krazy Glue [cyanoacrylate adhesive] is great for closing small cuts [after
they have been properly cleaned.] Steri-strips are the next step up in holding
ability.
Water Filters - Culligan's
new EZ-change Level 4 [under-sink] filter [cartridge]
is rated to treat 500 gallons. That is five time the volume of most compact
backpacking filters. With a self-contained design, it would be easy to attach
a pump. The are available for $38 through Amazon.com. Most [other] under-sink
filters could be used the same way, but the Culligan design is preferable because
it is fairly compact.
For "ready made" backpacking filters, I prefer the First Need brand filters.
These are rated to remove viruses and radioisotopes.
Ball-shaped pin on magnetic compasses are compact, but they are more fragile
that the type designed to clip on to a watch band, such as the Brunton and
Suunto brand compasses.
Dental health is very important for long-term survival. Wal-Mart now sells
a dental kit including a mirror with scaling tool and pick, from Dentek. They
also sell Temparin temporary filling repair kits. These come in three-application
containers.
Temparin is far superior to the old standby of packing a lost filling void
with zinc oxide.
A big part of survival is preventing injury. In a post collapse word, an injury
will reduce available manpower, and something that would be considered just
relatively minor in the present day could prove fatal. Proper safety equipment
and training in the safe use of hand tools is crucial. Gloves, eye protection,
preventing falls, fire safety, and so forth should be stressed. Hygiene and
proper sanitation are equally important.
I believe that a good foundation for long-term family preparedness is learning
the basics of wilderness survival. Having a solid understanding of the first
four critical basics--water, food heat and shelter--helps set priorities in
developing a larger plan for long-term preparation. It is also the final "fall
back" position [in the event that you are forced to abandon your retreat or
in case you never make it there]. These basics are also foundational in making
important decisions.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Practical Preparedness -- Things That Work »
Odds 'n Sods:
I hope that readers took my advice and bought precious metals during the recent
dip. The bank credit crisis seems to have woken
the gold bull from his short nap. (Gold had one of its best one day gains
ever, on Wednesday.) I believe that the bull's charge will resume, shortly.
Because the consumer
economy
now
looks
weak, I
predict that gold will probably outperform silver in the next run-up.
(Since silver is more of an industrial
metal, whereas
gold as seen as a safe haven when currencies are in turmoil.)
o o o
Tim T. mentioned that any SurvivalBlog readers with an interest in farming
with draft horses should check out The
Small Farmer's Journal. BTW, they also have a great book
catalog,
o o o
Bill N. recommended a blog piece by Bayou Renaissance Man about his local Neighborhood
Watch on Steroids.
o o o
A puzzling article from Der
Spiegel was flagged by reader Jack B.: 'Certain
Mistakes Just Can't Be Allowed to Happen'--"Hundreds of millions of
euros from a German government-owned bank went down the drain with Lehman
Brothers
on
Monday
after a strange deal
that
has
left
many people scratching their heads. Why would a German bank transfer €300
million to an American Wall Street firm after it filed for bankruptcy?" JWR's
comment: I suspect that they were hoping to limit some massive
outstanding counterparty risk from derivatives
contracts with Lehman Brothers. If they can help keep them afloat by
chipping in €300
million, then they might avoid the far
bigger risk of a disappearing derivatives contract counterparty. The stakes
in
the global derivatives casino
are
almost
too huge to imagine.
o o o
The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
grows a bit more: Fed
announces $180 billion cash flood to fight crisis. Eric (a frequent SurvivalBlog
content contributor) alerted me that as
of Thursday, $105 billion had already rolled out the door of the Fed (electronically).
Meanwhile, we read: Morgan
Stanley Said to Be in Talks With China's CIC. The
global credit collapse is completely out of control, folks. Be ready
to
hunker down, if and when things get ugly.
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"A billion here, and billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about
real money." - Senator Everett Dirksen
« Letter Re: Silver Canadian Leaf Bullion Coins |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
It seems that we are now all in the insurance business. For a mere $85+ billion
"loan", the Federal Reserve--backed by the full faith and credit of the US
Treasury--just
became a 80% stakeholder in AIG, the nation's largest
insurance
company. Hmmmm... Just
as I warned, the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
has grown again. Methinks this is going to get a lot worse, before it gets
better. Who will we bail out next? Chase Manhattan Bank? General Motors? United
Airlines? Chuck E. Cheese? Hey, no prob, we've got a big checkbook. The sky's
the limit.
We'll
just create the
money out of
thin air, and "owe it to ourselves." Let's face it: The nation is already functionally bankrupt.
And as the MOAB continues to grow, we can expect that foreigners will
one sad day declare our once-proud nation literally bankrupt,
and refuse to take our paper. At that point the game will be over. Move over,
Comrade Mugabe. There'll be a new inflationary wizard in town.
The high bid in the SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction is now at $750. The auction for a large
mixed lot that includes: A Special
Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95)
This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans--one can
of each of the following: Mixed Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden
Peas, Mixed Peppers, Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels
10 Pack Combo (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These items
were donated by Jan at Healthy
Harvest Foods. An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a box of
Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), with a combined value of approximately
$100. These items
were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com.
A NukAlert radiation
detector (a $160 value), donated by at KI4U.com.
And,
a Katadyn
VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail value.)
The
auction ends on Monday October 15, 2008. Please e-mail us
your bid.
« Letter Re: A Recent Gasoline Shortage Underscores the Need to Be Low Profile |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: Silver Canadian Leaf Bullion Coins
Jim,
I’m getting ready to add to my collection of gold and silver coins and
wanted to bring up a perhaps significant point: American Silver Eagles have
a face value of $1, whereas the equivalent Canadian coin (the 1 ounce Maple
Leaf) has a face value of $5 Canadian – about $4.65 USD at
the current exchange rate. The face value represents a built-in stop-loss should
silver prices fall through the floor for any reason. At current prices, the
face value of the Canadian caps your potential loss at slightly higher than
50% whereas with the U.S. coin you could potentially lose more than 90% of
your investment. Granted, a fall to such low prices is extremely unlikely;
nonetheless, a stop-loss is an important component of any investment position
and should be carefully considered when buying coins.
And, patriotism aside, I think the Canadian coin is prettier [than the U.S.
Silver Eagle] :-)
Best, - Matt R.
JWR Replies: Your point is well taken. Although the chances of a collapse
in the price of silver below $5 per ounce is quite small, it doesn't hurt to
hedge your bets. Another "stop-loss" approach
like yours is buying US silver half dollars that were minted between 1965 and
1970. Unlike the pre-1965 US coins (that were 90% silver), these later half
dollars were minted with just 40% silver content. The beauty
of investing in these is that if the price of silver were ever to collapse,
you could simply spend them. The only downside is that because they
are only 40% silver, they are a much bulkier and heavier way to invest in barterable
silver. The 40% silver half dollars are available in $500 and $1,000 face value
bags, from coin dealers. Here is some data that you should jot down, for calculating
the bullion value of circulated US coins:
1964 or earlier 90% dime, quarter or half-dollar bags ($1,000 face value)
contain approximately 715 ounces of silver
1965-to-1970 40% half dollar bags ($1,000 face value) contain approximately 296 ounces
of silver
So, for example, to determine the bullion value of $1,000 face value in 40%
silver quarters, simply multiply the current
day's spot price of silver ($10.85, as of this writing) x 296. Thus, $10.85
x 296 = $3,211.60 per bag. Based on that you can estimate that these coins
are presently worth 3.21 times their face value. (A 40% silver 50
cent piece is worth $1.60 in FRNs.
Meanwhile a 90% silver 50 cent piece is worth $3.88 in FRNs.) Silver would
have to collapse to below $3 per ounce before it would make sense to spend
40% silver half dollars as regular pocket change. But, even then, given the
long term trends for the value of the US Dollar, it would be crazy to do so.
« Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio |Main| Letter Re: Silver Canadian Leaf Bullion Coins »
Letter Re: A Recent Gasoline Shortage Underscores the Need to Be Low Profile
Sir:
I’ve been a reader of your site for only about a year and consider
myself a beginner-level survivalist. I’ve got the mindset and start of
some basic short-term survival gear and knowledge, but haven’t been able
to convince the wife to go all out yet. A few months ago, you had posted an
article
about keeping your level of preparedness secret from neighbors and I wasn’t
sure why until recently. I live in Middle Tennessee, and although we are hundreds
of miles away from Hurricane Ike, we experienced a short run on gas and spike
in prices. Probably close to a quarter of the gas stations in the city simply
ran out. From past experience, I had already purchased a 50-gallon drum with
manual pump (which I had filled in July), and I had three 5-gallon jugs that
I used to fill up the day before [the hurricane's] landfall. I could easily
make that last for a month even without changing my driving habits as long
as there
is
electricity
and I don’t have to generate. Plenty of time for capacity to return to
normal.
Not only did I get some evil looks while filling up at the
pump [in July], but I was also scrutinized at work by a few people that I had
told about my “cache.” Most
seemed to think I was the reason for the shortage (or a part of it.)
And while I agree that a hype can fuel a shortage, a shortage is still a shortage.
My
personal preparedness plays such a miniscule role in the big picture. But the
comments are enough to have made me learn my lesson. If 65 gallons of gas is
enough for people to question my intentions, then what would they say if they
discovered a much larger level or preparedness and the problem was much worse?
Suddenly
I’m not the guy trying to survive -- I’m the stingy hoarder who
won’t share with people in need and in some way contributed to the shortage.
Thanks for all you do. - Wes B.
JWR Replies: In my opinion, the modern American citizenry
has been badly misinformed by the mass media about what constitutes "hoarding." By
filling your gas drum and cans several months ago, you did not contribute to
a shortage
of fuel in
the present day. In normal times, chains of supply are continuously replenished.
By buying and
storing supplies well in advance, you actually helped to alleviate the
current short-term supply disruption. By having a pre-existing stockpile, you
represent one
less motorist
queuing up at the gas station. The same logic applies to any other shortage.
It is only people that attempt to buy a disproportionately large supply during a
crisis that could legitimately be called "hoarders." But
people in your category--that bought far in advance--are not part
of the problem.
In fact,
by having extra on hand, you can dispense charity, which makes you part of the
solution.
Maintaining a low profile is just common sense. The "need
to know" rule-- that
was constantly drummed into me when I was in the intelligence community--is
time-proven. There are great advantages in being circumspect.
I enjoy giving charitably. But there is no
reason why it has to be done with a high profile in the midst of a natural
disaster or other crisis. By anonymously leaving parcels on doorsteps or by
using an intermediary--such as your local church--you are far less likely to
attract
unwanted attention
from either government officials or members of your community with a twisted
sense
of ethics.
The other reason for being secretive about charity is Biblical: In Matthew
6:3 (King James Version) we are taught: "But when thou doest alms, let
not thy left
hand
know
what thy right hand doeth." Essentially, this means that when giving
charitably, we should do it without any fanfare, lest it be a source of pride.
Give generously,
but do so very quietly.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: A Recent Gasoline Shortage Underscores the Need to Be Low Profile »
Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio
Hi Jim,
We live in Columbus, Ohio and had 76 m.p.h. winds on Sunday. We have been without
power until late today. Our neighborhood looks like a war zone. Many trees
on homes and in yards. There is some good news in that we shared our generator
with neighbors. Others in the neighborhood were doing the same. Some of the
kids set up a barbeque stand and were selling hot dogs and hamburgers for cost.
This helped many to have meals. Everyone helped to clear trees and limbs from
the roads and yards. Schools are still closed for Wednesday and many intersections
still have no signals. The majority of people are using common sense. In general
the west side of Columbus seemed to get hit the worse.
Let me say that we rode this out without much trouble. We had plenty of gas
for the generator and batteries for all of the flashlights and push on lights.
We had water stored but it was not needed. We had the right tools such as pots
and pans etc. that could be used on outside fires.
This was not the case for many. I went shopping for a few things and while
at the store a family was there buying emergency supplies. The mother commented
to me that she didn't know what she was going to fix to eat since she had no
power. I asked if they had a grill and she said yes. I told her to either buy
or use some cheap pots and pans and use the grill to cook. She looked at
me and was so surprised and said she would not have thought to use the grill.
I could have told her a few other ways to make meals but she moved on. I saw
so many people trying to find ice as well as generators. Camping items such
as lanterns were all sold out in stores. I did notice that several stores had
raised prices on these items but most were sold out.
I have never been one, however, to own guns and always felt that I would not
need one. Well that has all changed as of last night. We had the generator
chained to the deck with heavy chains and locks and thought it was safe. We
had been watching television using rabbit ears and I got up to go to the other
room. When I returned I saw a car pull up in front of the house. We were the
only
house
[in the neighborhood] to have lights and it could be seen from the road. You
could also hear the generator from the road. The car moved on when the driver
saw me standing
and looking
out
the window.
We decided we needed something in case they came back trying to take the generator.
The only thing we found was a length of heavy pipe. We got it and then did
not sleep for fear of losing the generator. I will be getting a gun and taking
safety
classes
to ensure proper use so that our property will be defended if needed.
We thought we were prepared but now have found a few items we still need to
get to be better prepared for next time. We have you to thank for helping us
to prepare as well as we did. Sincerely, - Melanie & Rick
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio »
Odds 'n Sods:
Krys in Idaho flagged this one: Ike
Holdouts To Be Forced From Home. Some comments from Krys: "This story shows
the importance of two things: 1) Proper retreat location and2) Having multiple
plans in place for multiple
scenarios WTSHTF.
Just because you plan to stay
in place, doesn't mean you'll be able to.How many of these folks were perfectly
able to weather
the storm in place, but are being
forced
to move anyway, possibly at gun point? Food for thought."
o
o o
Reader "M" sent us this: Money
Market Fund Says Customers Could Lose Money. Money market accounts have
long considered "ultra safe. But when even these are in peril, you know that
something is horribly wrong with the financial markets. My advice: If you have
any deposits in accounts that are not FDIC insured
then shift them elsewhere, even if it means earning substantially less interest.
In today's
economy you
should be focused on safety, rather than maximizing your returns.
(You should worry "not so much about return on investment as return of investment.")
o o o
Any SurvivalBlog readers that own a M1919
belt-fed (semi-auto or full-auto) have probably been feeling
the pinch from the sharply higher ammo prices in recent months. It is well-known
that you can convert these guns (originally designed to fire .30-06) to shoot
7.62mm NATO, .303 British, or 8mm Mauser (a.k.a. 8x57). But as I was wandering
the
Web today, I found a company called
BarrelXChange.
They now offer M1919 conversions to the Russian 7.62x39 and 7.62.54(r) chamberings!
BTW, they also
offer Uzi SMG conversions
in some unusual calibers. Their Model 1919 conversion kits ar available via
mail order, but to save on shipping, they'll also be available at the
Knob Creek Machinegun
Shooting Event (October 10th 11th & 12th, 2008),
at Dolf Goldsmith's table. (Dolf is the gent that wrote the three volume
book
on
Browning machineguns.)
o o o
The crisis on Wall Street is now being felt all around the world: These four
articles are just a brief sampling: China
paper urges new currency order after "financial
tsunami", ECB
doyen Otmar Issing calls crisis "extremely dangerous", Panic
as Russian market suspended , and Panic
grips credit markets.
o o o
Eric sent us several interesting economic news links: House
prices to fall on liquidity concerns--U.S.
Mortgage Rates May Wreak Havoc After Libor Gain--Pimco
real estate fund tanks, and Americans
Should Worry About Bank Deposits. Meanwhile Cheryl (our Economic Editor)
sent us these links:
Will
AIG File $1 Trillion Bankruptcy?--AIG
Death Would Be Far Worse Than Lehmans--A
Global Fight Over Pieces of Lehman Bros.--FDIC
Says Banking System "Safe and Sound"--Greenberg-Led
AIG Investors Consider Taking Control, and Why
the Fed Didn't Cut the Funds Rate.
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"It's easy to find a trend and ride the train. The problem is, managers
don't know when to get off it.'' - Peter
Rup, discussing the collapse of Ospraie Management
LLC's commodities hedge fund.
« Letter Re: Advice on Get Out of Dodge Vehicles |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
Prompted by the clamorous economic headlines in the mainstream media, I've had numerous e-mails and
phone calls from relatives and consulting clients,
asking
me "Is
this it, Jim?"
Please keep in mind that I'm not a prophet. I'm just a former spook that makes
some empirical observations and draws some logical conclusions. But I can safely
say that "it" appears to be a lot closer than it ever has been in
my adult
life. Be ready.
Thanks to the generous folks at KI4U.com,
the SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction package in the auction that just started this week
has been expanded, to include a
NukAlert radiation detector
(a $160 value). The high bid is now at $150. See the SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction Page for a full list of what is included. Our thanks to the
many generous vendors that donated merchandise!
Our special
thanks
to Melanie S., Mike M., and "Secret
Squirrel" for
their very generous donations toward The
Memsahib's recent huge medical bills.
She is now out of the hospital and doing better but still needs your prayers
for miraculous healing. She is greatly uplifted by your prayers!
« Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Fuel Conservation WTSHTF |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: Advice on Get Out of Dodge Vehicles
James:
I have a question about cars: In making your G.O.O.D. vehicle,
which would be considered safer, a modern car with front and side airbags,
a modern
car
with airbags and a roll cage,
a modern car with airbags disabled/removed and a roll cage, or an old muscle
car without airbags but with roll cage? - SF in Hawaii
JWR Replies: To begin, from what I've read, most of the professional
drivers in the executive protection business drive with only the driver's
side airbags
disabled.
Based on what I've heard regarding what models are driven by the winners at
demolition derbies, a late 1960s to very early 1970s station wagon with a big
block engine
would
be ideal. They get pitifully low gas mileage, but they have lots of cargo room,
and they have clearance for a roll bar behind the bench-type front seat. You
can
also
add
a roof
rack for relatively lightweight items such as spare tires,.tentage, and camouflage
nets.
To my mind, perfection in a G.O.O.D. station wagon would be a flat brown-painted 1970
Buick Estate with a 455 cubic inch four-barrel V8 engine.
What a ride: Plenty of power, very tough in collisions, easy to maintain, EMP protection
even when near ground zero, and even a touch of class. (They are starting
to be considered classics,
so your neighbors
probably wouldn't object to one in your driveway.) But I'm not sure how many
rust-free 38-year-old vehicles are still available in the tropical climate
of Hawaii. ;-) I suppose that you could find one in Arizona or New Mexico
through
the
ads
in Hemming's
Motor News, but then subsequently transporting it to Hawaii
would probably be prohibitively expensive.
« Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Get Out of Dodge Vehicles »
Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Fuel Conservation WTSHTF
Jim:
To follow-up on my last e-mail, here are some random thoughts that I'd like
to share on fuel conservation, for when the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF):
Water Pasteurization Indicators (WAPIs) - Often used in the Third World
to save fuel and time when treating drinking water. Water that is heated to
149 degrees for a short time is free from living microbes. Water does not have
to be boiled for 10 minutes. A WAPI is a simple, small and low cost tube with
a special soy wax that can show that water has reached a safe Pasteurization
temperature. These are available from SolarCooking.org.
(By
the way, they also several nice solar oven designs.)
Solar ovens and Solar Showers - For cooking, water Pasteurization, and hot
water for hygiene needs. There is also a "solar puddle" design available
on the Internet for large scale water Pasteurization.
Oven and Meat Thermometers - Prevents waste of fuel [and nutritive value]
by cooking foods to higher temperatures than necessary.
Pot Cozys - These are insulated wraps for cooking pots. You heat the pot and
contents to a desired temperature and then set the pot off to the side, wrapped
in a pot cozy. Thus insulated, the food continues to cook until done. [JWR
Adds: For more on this topic, see KBF's
article in SurvivalBlog on Thermos cooking.]
Reflective Wind Shields - When used for cooking on a stove indoors or outdoors,
these will shorten the time [and hence reduce fuel use] required to reach the
desired temperature. - Doc Anonymous
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Fuel Conservation WTSHTF »
Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio
Good Morning, Jim,
And yes it is a good morning at that. I'm here in the suburbs
of Ohio between Dayton and Cincinnati. Our power has returned. I read Larry
in Cincinnati's post this morning, and I know his thoughts and feelings all
too well. Like him, we had the preparedness mind set already in place, and
fared a bit better than some of our neighbors. I only caught the tail end of
your interview on AM 700 WLW in Cincinnati in my truck as I was heading to
work ( the company I work for is on a different power grid and was up and running)
Monday, and I could not help but think of some of the posts since I have been
coming to SurvivalBlog, and some of the things that you have discussed on the
site.
Like Larry, I hope this will be a wake up call to folks, but sadly, I
know that only a small portion of them will get it. One of the things that
I found to be spot on, was the part about the things that were stripped from
the shelves of the few stores that were open. I did not see them first hand,
but a few of my neighbors had gone to them, and they were an exact carbon copy
of the list. One even told of folks heading to the toy department, to snap
up all the Hannah Montana kids' flashlights. Yep, batteries, camping stoves,
lanterns, canned goods, candles, etc; Like I said, the list was so dead on
it gave me a shiver. As I stated earlier, we were a bit better prepared, so
we had no need of anything to get us through this minor inconvenience left
over by the storm.
Folks down in Texas are going to be without power, water,
food,
and other needed supplies in some areas for many weeks to come, so our prayers
go out to them more than the folks down the block who lost a small bit of food
in their refrigerator because the power has been off for a little less than
48 hours. There was some talk of the possibility that it could have been out
for a whole week, and this would have been a pretty bad thing for sure, but
the thing that I voiced the most concern to my neighbors about, and the one
that none of them had thought of was, that if it did take that long, there
was a good possibility that the water tower that sits on the hill above our
house would run dry, and without power to run the pumps to refill the tank.
But, we were okay here, because we had filled half of our five gallon water
cooler jugs
a few days before this happened, and I had gone to the grocery on Friday, and
had bought a case of 20 oz. bottles for my son to take in his school lunches.
Cooking was not a problem, we have a charcoal grill,and I have a Coleman white
gas fuel stove and a good supply of fuel for emergencies such as this. Plenty
of flashlights, a battery powered lantern, spare batteries, oil lamps and oil,
and candles with good sturdy candle holders for light, and a couple very good
multi-band radios, and plenty of batteries for them as well.
I hope that
others here in our tri-state area that were affected by this will see the need
to prepare for things like this. I know that a few of my neighbors will be
a bit better prepared for things by talking to me, and seeing how we were set
up at my house for this. Now this is not to say that I was totally prepared.
I saw a few "flaws in the slaw ", but preparing for these types
of things is a constant and on-going process, and we do the best we can with
the hand we have been dealt. The rest, we can adapt if we put our minds to
the problems and keep a cool head. - Dim Tim
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio »
Odds 'n Sods:
If you feel like you've waited too long to Get Out of Dodge, and you need
to buy a complete, turn-key retreat, then listen to this: I've personally visited
a northern Idaho retreat that just
went on the market, through our spin-off site: SurvivalRealty.com.
This
retreat
has some very special features (most of which I've seen) that will be revealed
only to qualified
buyers.
o o o
Eric sent us this: Japan
Stocks Dive to 3-Year Low on Lehman, AIG Capital
Concern. "[The] Nikkei closed early as the volume was approaching their
load
limits..."
o o o
A bunch more more economic gloomage gleaned by Cheryl, our Economic Editor: How
the [Financial] Masters of the Universe Ran Amok and Cost Us the Earth--Card
Debt Up 8.5%; Delinquencies Rise--HP
To Cut 24,600 Jobs in EDS Integration--No
Jobs Make Mean Streets--More
Financial Turmoil to Come--The
Social Imperative of Sound Money--The
Final Destruction of the Middle Class--The
Danger Is Not Fully Appreciated (US Under Financial Attack?)--Stocks
End Higher After Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged--Barclays
Agrees To Acquire Lehman Assets--Money
as Debt--Money-Market
Rates Double Amid Global Credit Seizure--Report
on AIG Rescue Boosts Wall Street--AIG
Shares Swing Amid Crisis--Goldman
Sachs Down 70% in 3Q--Fed
to give AIG $85 billion loan and take 80% stake--and, Is
the US in Recession? (You think?)
o o o
And for a little levity on the ever-encroaching Nanny State: City uses DNA
to fight dog poop
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Lehman Brothers Holdings has gone bankrupt. Here is a firm that was
founded in 1850. It survived the Civil War and the Great Depression. It did
not survive
the current breakdown. Anyone who thinks this crisis is some minor affair is
not paying attention."
-
Dr. Gary North
« Dear Mr. Fuld: It's The End of the World As We Know It |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
Warning: Today's blog posts will exceed the Recommended Daily Allowance of Gloom
and Doom.
Congrats to Tom H., the high bidder in our recent SurvivalBlog benefit
auction. Today we begin a new auction, for a mixed lot that includes:
Special
Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95)
This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans--one
can of each of the following:
Mixed
Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden Peas, Mixed Peppers,
Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels
10 Pack Combo (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These
items were donated by Jan at Healthy
Harvest Foods.
An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a box of Bellagio hot chocolate
(25 individual packs), with a combined value of approximately $100. These items
were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com
A Katadyn
VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail
value.)
The auction ends on October 15, 2008. The opening bid is just $50. Please e-mail us
your bids, in $10 increments.
Today, we present a guest article by Michael Pento, Senior
Market
Strategist with Delta Global
Advisors.
With more than 16 years of industry experience, Michael Pento acts as senior
market
strategist for Delta Global
Advisors and is a contributing writer for
GreenFaucet.com. He
is a well-established specialist in the Austrian
School of economic theory and a regular guest on CNBC and other national
media outlets. Mr. Pento has worked on the floor of the NYSE as well as
serving as vice
president of investments for GunnAllen Financial immediately prior to joining
Delta Global.
But first, here is my commentary on the recent "tectonic shifts"
on Wall Street:
« A Quantum Leap Toward Socialism, by Michael Pento |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Dear Mr. Fuld: It's The End of the World As We Know It
The recent news headlines about the investment banking crisis have answered
the question that I often get from readers: "Why do you spend so much
time talking about economics?" In my estimation, an economic crisis is
the most likely trigger for a societal collapse, in the short term. The Lehman
Brothers debacle is just a microcosmic preview of the global credit collapse.
It is also a good illustration of the
derivatives risk that I've been warning about for many years. How many
times do I have to say this? The entire credit system is broken and
it will be a full decade or more before the markets
recover.
In the
interim,
we
will
witness some horrendous
turmoil
and
some potentially huge losses
with derivatives, hedge funds, equities and equities aggregations (mutual funds,
401(k)s, and IRAs), banks, credit unions, municipal bonds, insurers, real estate,
pension funds, and much more. With shares of the once iron-clad Lehman Brothers
now
selling
at 21 cents each,
(down 94%) it is clear that we are undoubtedly entering uncharted waters. The
company
had a market capitalization
of $47 billion last
year. But when I last looked, it's cap was down to a miniscule $144.6 million.
Somebody needs to call Richard
Fuld and tell him that it is time to cue
up the R.E.M. music.
For some details on this recent economic chaos, see the many
links in today's SurvivalBlog Odds 'n Sods section (below.)
Wall Street is in utter disarray. This past weekend was as painfully traumatic
as October, 1929. In today's economic environment, nobody can accurately predict
what will
happen. So
anyone that claims to be able to accurately predict market moves in this environment
is a liar. All that I can safely suggest is that you get out of
US dollar-denominated investments and do your best to make substantive preparations
for your family.
If you
have been dawdling in getting storage food, then get on the phone with a
reputable dealer, pronto. (There are several trustworthy storage
food firms that advertise on SurvivalBlog. I would appreciate it if you would
reward them for
their loyal support of SurvivalBlog
by giving them your business first. And, BTW, please mention SurvivalBlog,
when you do.
Why did I make reference to the song "It's The End of the World As We
Know It"? Because of the second key line in the lyrics: "And
I feel fine." Most of SurvivalBlog's readers are in a tiny minority
of the populous. We are the people that woke up this morning, read the newspaper
headlines, and
yet we felt fine. We have minimal exposure to stocks and the banking system,
and we have our Schumer together. We have our Beans, Bullets, and Band-Aids
squared away, and even some extra to dispense as charity. Pardon me for feeling
smug, but, A.) I told you so, and B.) We are ready. I pray that your family
is ready, too.
« Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio |Main| Dear Mr. Fuld: It's The End of the World As We Know It »
A Quantum Leap Toward Socialism, by Michael Pento
Unfortunately, we Americans now realize that the decision by Ben Bernanke
to slash the Fed Funds rate to 2% (a three hundred twenty five basis point
reduction)
was just the opening act in this Republican administration's socialism play.
At the time some wondered why the government didn't just allow home prices
fall to historical averages rather than seeking to lower the value of the U.S.
dollar and send inflation to a 17-year high. Now we have learned just this
past weekend that the Department of the Treasury has come up with a plan for
conservatorship of the GSEs, enacting the largest bailout in the history of
the United States.
What does the conservatorship plan mean? It means the government will take
over the GSEs for the purpose of continuing their operation rather than putting
them into receivership, which would seek to sell off their assets and shut
down future business. In contrast, the Paulson plan will actually increase the holdings of FNM ["Fannie Mae"] and FRE ["Freddie Mac"] by $144 billion.
The total of mortgage backed securities held by the GSEs will be allowed to
increase
to
$850 billion
each
by December 2009.
My Libertarian heart sank when I witnessed Republicans and Democrats slap each
other on the back as they congratulated themselves from saving us from the
natural workings of the free market. The Republicans reek of hypocrisy, claiming
the bailout of FNM and FRE was necessary for the health of the real estate
market and the economy. I guess government intervention in the free market
is only mandatory if you're a bank, insurance company, foreign government or
a pension fund that owns GSE debt.
It was especially telling when Hank Paulson's was asked in a CNBC interview
how much his bailout plan will cost taxpayers. He responded that he "did not
use a calculator" when putting together this scheme. The essence of his response
was that he did not care what the bill to taxpayers would be, his main concern
was to recapitalize banks and stop home prices from falling.
The big problem with this plan is that the government does not have a plausible
exit strategy. After Treasury has taken the companies into conservatorship
and then expands their operations, it will not be easy to reduce the size of
the GSEs. Their intention is to wind down the agencies balance sheets beginning
in 2010 at a rate of 10% per annum until they reach just $250 billion each.
So let me get this straight, after the real estate market has become more reliant
on FNM and FRE to securitize the mortgage market, we will then be able to
allow market forces to take hold? That view becomes especially dubious in light
of the fact that we will have a new administration in charge when this scale-down
is supposed to be taking place.
Just as the U.S. has become addicted to artificially low interest rates--unable
to raise them without seriously hurting the economy-- we now have most likely
permanently socialized a good portion of the real estate market and the economy.
Does the administration really believe that it is better to debase our currency
and greatly expand the obligations of our government rather than letting home
prices fall to a level that can be supported by the market? This move has long-term
ramifications on the dollar and the national debt. Thanks to a stimulus package
and reckless spending from the administration, annual deficits are already
skyrocketing to nearly $500 billion. Now with the Paulson bailout plan, debt
could increase even faster. This may torpedo the recent move higher in the
dollar and makes its long-term picture even more bearish.
Perhaps it will first fall even further in coming weeks, but the need to own
honest money (gold) never been more apparent. - Michael Pento, Senior Market
Strategist, Delta Global Advisors
JWR Adds: Be sure to check out
Michael's
podcast, The Mid-Week Reality Check.
« Letter Re: Just In Time Greenback Cash Supply for American Banks |Main| A Quantum Leap Toward Socialism, by Michael Pento »
Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio
Hi James!
I heard you this morning on WLW [in Cincinnati, Ohio] radio when you did your
quick interview. Nice job.
It is amazing here in Cincinnati the level of
chaos
that exists. The
power
is
still
out to over half a million people. My power just came back on about 10
minutes ago, but I'm waiting until it stabilizes before shutting down my emergency
power system.
We had quite a mess with lots of downed trees and power lines, but overall
it wasn't as bad as Houston - thank God! There has been quite a run on gasoline,
and a bit of gouging here. About 50% of the grocery stores are down without
power. [The] Krogers [grocery store chain in the region] has over 50% of
their stores closed and are predicting quite a loss in frozen/fresh foods at
those
locations.
I've been well prepared for quite a while, so no long gas lines for me, plenty
to eat, power and we've enjoyed a couple of days Internet free, which I might
add hasn't really been that bad! Maybe this will be a wake up call to more
people locally to get prepared. One can only hope. God bless you and yours!
- Larry
in Cincinnati, Ohio
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike's Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio »
Letter Re: Just In Time Greenback Cash Supply for American Banks
Mr. Rawles,
I worked for Loomis/Fargo as an armed security technician. That means I was
a member of an armored car crew. We serviced nearly the whole quarter of
a certain state [un-named--not my current state of residence]. This included
a major US Air Force base.
Once a week we made runs to the area banks to deliver cash. Usually our load
[included] 1 to 2 tons of coins.
Cold cash totals were in the 1 to 3 million area each week and sometimes up
to 5M seasonally.
Very often we would arrive at a bank and the tellers would say to us, "thank
God" you are here! We are down to the last $1,500 or $3,000 in cash. Very
frequently the banks on the days of our runs were nearly out of [Federal Reserve
Note] bills to service customers.
Just in Time (JIT) inventory systems for WalMart and big box stores are well
known. Less known are the JIT deliveries of cash to banks.
The bottom line is that they will run out of cash in a flash if events happen
that put people into a panic mode. The Loomis/Fargo company runs regional [statewide]
mini Federal Reserve depositories of coins and cash. I have seen bundles of
cash in one that would require a U-haul truck to handle.
So, if elements of chaos spread across an area and the natives get to taking
charge, then what do you think Loomis/Fargo is going to do about their armored
truck runs? Yes, they will cancel them in a hurry.
Fact: Banks do not keep much cash on hand. Projection: The
banks will run out of cash in a crisis, so get your cash stash established
now.
Personally, I think that if paper money tanks because so much of it is in existence
or on a ledger/computer; that eventually coins will have an enhanced value.
The government is not mass producing new coins. So include in your stash a
substantial amount of quarters and half-dollars.
Potentially, how much money can you put into an automated teller machine (ATM)?:
I have put $250,000 a week into an ATM in a large mall in the state where I
worked.
On another note: Gas here in western Oklahoma yesterday was still $3.69 in
my town and $3.47 on I-40 and Saturday in Oklahoma City it was $3.439. - J.
in Oklahoma
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Just In Time Greenback Cash Supply for American Banks »
Odds 'n Sods:
From Naish Piazza's blog: I
Love This Little Girl… and So Will You. OBTW, speaking of Front Sight,
don't miss out on their "Get
a Gun" training and gear package offer. This offer will probably end
soon, so don't hesitate any longer!
o o o
Our hard working Economic Editor Cheryl N. sent us an enormous batch of news
and commentary. Note, BTW, how many of these highlight the derivatives
market: Meltdown
Shakes Up Wall Street Workers--Wall
Street Crisis Could Put Fed Rate Cut Into Play--Stocks
Tumble Amid New Wall Street Landscape--Obama,
McCain Blame Economic Woes on Greed, Policy--Greenspan:
US In "Once-In-A-Century" Financial Crisis--Tectonic
Shift As Lehmans Fails and Merrill Sold--AIG
Allowed To Borrow Money From Subsidiaries (Portfolio Plummets)--Black
Monday: FTSE Plunges 212 Points As Global Markets Tumble After Lehman Collapse/BofE
Injects 5 billion pounds into money markets--Frantic
Day On Wall Street As Banks Fall--Wilbur
Ross: Possibly 1,000 Banks Will Fail In Coming Months--Dangerous "Lehmers"--The
Rise and Fall of Lehman Bros--Doomed
Lehmans Now Bros. Grimm--Derivatives
Market Traded On Sunday To Cut Lehman Risks--Silences
Say It All--Implications
of a 10-Day Refinery Outage--Stocks
Plunge 500 Points; $700 billion in Wealth Erased--AIG
Workers On Edge At Once-Safe Company--Is
This The Death Knell Of Derivatives?--UK
Bank Customers Urged Not To Panic--The
Death of Wall Street, Part 1--Stocks
Get Pummeled--Bush:
Markets Are Resilient and Flexible (bwahahahahaha!)--Pimco,
Vanguard Are Biggest Lehman Bond Fund Losers--AIG's
Reported Sales Likely To Draw Many Bidders--Fed
Injects $70 billion in Banking
System--Americans
Should Worry About Bank Deposits--Lehmans
Is Dead: Where's The Crime Scene Tape?--The
Other Gulf Surge Tide--Deleveraging
Not Deflation Resulting in Commodities
Temporary Violent Correction--Lehman's
Bankruptcy: The Ultimate Wall Street
Derivatives Defaults Nightmare (this one is a must read!)--AIG,
Lehman Shock Hits World Markets--AIG
Seeks HUGE Loans As Stocks Dive 61%--and,
last but not least (and as
partial
confirmation of what I predicted): Merrill
Bailout Disguised As Buyout.
o o o
Justin B in Phoenix recommended reading a post over at the Tom Bowers Subguns
Forum:
My Houston
Hurricane Story or “How
BCR’s
Roll" (This post actually dates back to Hurricane Rita, but it is
a useful illustration of the value of well-orchestrated family preparedness.)
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"In financial crises, your actual capital adequacy and liquidity
does not matter. Both Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns — and Lehman
particularly — were
felt to be adequately capitalized only days before their fall. But once people
thought that the end was near, the trading stopped, liquidity dried up, and
the capital fled." - Steven M. Davidoff
« Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Water Conservation WTSHTF |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
I was saddened to hear that Chuck
Karwan passed away last week, following open
heart surgery. He was an exemplary American, a USMA West
Point graduate (1969) that served in Vietnam and elsewhere (1st Cavalry Division
(Airmobile), 5th Infantry Division (Mechanized), and the 5th and 10th Special
Forces Groups), and was a noted writer on knives and military firearms. He
will
be
missed,
especially
by his friends in Oregon.
The SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction ends tonight (Monday, September 15th) at midnight, eastern
time. The
high bid is now at $580. The auction for a mixed lot that
includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated
by Ready Made
Resources--a $320 value), a
NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U--a $160 value), a Wilson
Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate
Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a
DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books--a $25
value). Please e-mail us
your bid, ASAP.
« Letter Re: Advice on Gauging the Safety of Individual American Banks |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Water Conservation WTSHTF
Jim:
Here are some random thoughts that I'd like to share on water conservation,
for when the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF):
Latex or nitrile gloves - Minimizes the use of water for cleaning up after
a dirty chore. The nitrile gloves sold by Costco seem to be the strongest and
do not oxidize like latex. [JWR Adds: The cost of nitrile
gloves bought in bulk is so low, that they are well worth using. They are particularly
important to use when handling dyes, paint, strong acids (such as during battery
maintenance),
strong bases (such as when making soap or when putting lime in an outhouse
pit or a carcass pit), pesticides, herbicides, fuel (filling kerosene lamps
or transferring gas to or from cans), or motor oil. (Used crank case oil is
of particular concern, since it has been identified as a carcinogen.)
Reynold's Oven Bags - Use inside a cooking pot to minimize clean-up. They
can also be used outside a solar cooking to to retain moisture and heat. These
shorten the cooking time for both solar and conventional ovens. hey are strong
and thin. They can also serve as an impromptu canteen. (Put a couple of them
in each outdoor survival kit.)
A small rubber primer bulb for out bard motors - Use as a foot pump for tubing
from a water source to a water basin.This provides controlled"one person" water
delivery. I use vinyl tubing connected to piece of 1/4" diameter copper
tubing that was bent nearly 90 degrees for the "faucet." This uses
just a small fraction of the water that is normally expended with a traditionally-plumbed
sink.
Funnels. - Buy several of these of various shapes and sizes, to reduce spills.
Garden pressure sprayer - Buy a new, clean one (not contaminated with chemicals)
to rinse kitchenware. BTW, we found that they had too fine a spray for use
as a bathing shower.
Clothes wringer - Efficiently wrings gray water out for wet clothes. This
water can be re-used for toilet flushing.
Basins - Use plastic basins to wash and rinse dishes or to hand-wash small
batches of laundry .This again saves gray water for re-use.
Whitewater Rafting Dry Bags - Can be used to prevent items from getting wet,
or can be used as a "clothes washer." Add hot water
and powdered laundry detergent and agitate.
- Doc Anonymous
« Letter Re: Recommended Preparedness Focus for a Dentist in Kansas? |Main| Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Water Conservation WTSHTF »
Letter Re: Advice on Gauging the Safety of Individual American Banks
James:
Howdy, I haven't been able to write or e-mail much these last few months
as I have just moved from Detroit, Michigan, to Montana. Having just completed
this relocation, and unfortunately not having been able to complete my prep
for
the move as
well as I would have liked, I was wondering if you had any info on banks here?
I am living about 70 miles west of Missoula, Montana.
Thanks in advance. - Warhawke
JWR Replies: Well, congratulations on your move and cue
the Merle Haggard music!
I don't know much specifically about the state-chartered banks up in Montana.
The good news is that Montana was not a housing bubble mania state
like California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida, so most Montana
banks
should still be safe. (Anyone living in the housing bubble states should
be quite concerned about bank failures.) But, regardless, I strongly
recommend that all SurvivalBlog readers in the US follow the
link
to Weiss Research, in this
recent SurvivalBlog article. They can give you an honest appraisal of
the relative safety of most banks.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Gauging the Safety of Individual American Banks »
Letter Re: Recommended Preparedness Focus for a Dentist in Kansas?
Dear Sir,
It was James Howard Kunstler who alerted me to the problems that has caught
so many other people unawares in early 2002. Alas, although we're light years
ahead of our fellow citizens in terms of preparedness, we're many parsecs
behind the majority of your readers! We do have about six months of food
on hand (which keeps growing each day), plus containers for water storage
and
filters for water purification. We have some basic medical supplies. Our "battery" has
been augmented including the storage of several hundreds (although not thousands
yet) of rounds of ammunition. Soon, I'll have a basic reloading set up. I've
been buying whatever high-quality tools I can find, whether it's a 1930s
#8 Stanley plane or a King of Spades shovel. Our organic garden is growing
each year. We're not squeamish so we'll probably be gray-watering and humanuring
as soon as it is feasible. My wife is a green thumb and is becoming an expert
on foraging: she knows every edible plant/mushroom in Kansas!
So all hope isn't lost but there is so much to be done. Which brings me to
my point: thanks ever so much for this incredible resource!
But I have one question: knowing the little that you do about us (family of
four, in rural Kansas, slightly-prepared but not much) what would you recommend
as being our first priority? What products/skills should I spend the next year
focusing upon? Thanks again, - SF, DDS, in Kansas
JWR Replies: My recommendation, particularly
for anyone living in the Plains States and most of the western US is that
water should be your top priority, including
roof
downspout rain barrel conversions, and
locating
any nearby
creeks or reservoirs where you can
collect water, and the means to transport and treat it, even if you are ling
"Grid Down" and don't have gasoline available to operate motor vehicles for
hauling water..
In the next year, take advantage
of as much free and low cost training as your schedule permits. (Red Cross,
WRSA,
et cetera.) Next, move on to more sophisticated training, as your budget
permits. (Medical Corps, Front
Sight, OnPoint
Tactical, et cetera.)
Since you are a dentist, you might think in terms of operating
a minimalist general dentistry and dental surgery practice without grid
power.
Stock up on expendable supplies. Search for old-fashioned/alternative equipment.
Buy a full-up photovoltaic power system if you can afford it. You might even
be
able to
find a
foot-powered dental
drill. These are now considered museum
pieces, except in
the Third World, where
they are still in limited use.
As
I've previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, I have some very strong
reservations about the humanure approach. To be done safely, it
takes very close temperature monitoring, and that might prove difficult
in a grid-down post-collapse environment.
I also consider it unfeasible for handing waste at a remote retreat that
is only occupied for part of each year. (Ideally, it would best done at a rural
farm or ranch that has at least five residents that are living there year-round.)
In my opinion the risks far outweigh the rewards for most of us.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Recommended Preparedness Focus for a Dentist in Kansas? »
Odds 'n Sods:
Craig R. Smith of Swiss America asks: Will
government bailouts spell end of dollar? (A hat tip to Jack in Texas for the link)
o o o
TheOtherRyan over at TSLRF (one of the eight-or-so blogs that I read frequently)
posted a succinct and commonsense list: 10
commandments
for buying gold and silver
o o o
One of my "Secret Squirrel" contributors mentioned that because
the price of 128 MB and 256 MB USB memory sticks (aka "jump drives" or "USB
thumb drives") has dropped to less
than $2 each, readers that
want to contribute any articles or lengthy letters to SurvivalBlog can now
do so more anonymously, by simply snail mailing
them in MS-Word format or
RTF
loaded on a
"stick".
Just tape them onto folded a piece of stiff cardboard and
use a standard size envelope. This way there will be no e-mail trail. It will
also save me many hours of laboriously keying-in hard copy articles, and eliminate
the risk of transcription errors. My only special request is that because of
software
compatibility issues,
please
be
sure
to
send multiple
copies
of
the
files on the stick in various formats, including plain text ("TXT"),
Rich Text Format (".RTF"), and Microsoft Word (".MSW").
Once I've copied and then deleted the files, I will pass those sticks
along to soldiers deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. (I'll pack them in my
regular Any
Soldier program gift boxes.) Our current mail forwarding address is:
Jim Rawles, P.O. Box 303, Moyie Springs, Idaho 83845. Thanks!
o o o
Eric mentioned this piece in The Toronto Sun: Head for the hills--U.S. economy
collapsing under debt
o o o
Cheryl N. (SurvivalBlog's Economic Editor) sent us some more news and commentary
that she gleaned from her web research: Gov't,
Wall Street Race To Save Lehmans--Bailout
for Lehman Not Likely--Warning:
30 Airlines Will Go Bust This Year--August
Foreclosures: Another Record High--US
Housing Bear Market Nowhere Near Bottom--Lehman Brothers teeters on verge
of collapse as Barclays pulls out
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"...we have yet to see a genuine effort by our national security leaders
to engage the public to frankly and openly inform them on where we face major
threats, how best the community should better protect itself and improve risk
reduction measures. In fact the reverse is true: a range of government reports
relating to Australia's ability to respond to large-scale emergencies have
been embargoed on the grounds that to share that information with the public
would only serve to frighten people." - Australian
Strategic Policy Institute Strategic
Insights Newsletter # 39 - Taking a punch:
Building a more resilient Australia
« Letter Re: Generating Photovoltaic Power When Grid Power is Available |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
Our prayers go out for the citizens of Texas.
Hurricane Ike made landfall with quite a wallop. More
than four million people are expected to be without utility power for days
or perhaps weeks. Thankfully, it has been downgraded to a tropical storm,
but as of this writing it is still doing damage as it makes its way through
Texas.
It is gratifying to see how much the
SurvivalBlog readership has grown, particularly in Australia
and New Zealand, and Indonesia. Welcome aboard! BTW, we are actively
looking for correspondent in Australia and Indonesia, to keep us up to date
on political, economic, and social issues related to preparedness. Like our
other correspondents, you'd only be in it for the glory, plus the occasional
free book or sample product.
The SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction ends tomorrow night at midnight, eastern time. The
high bid is now at $570.
The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze
dried foods
in
#10
cans, (donated by Ready
Made Resources--a $320 value), a
NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U--a $160 value), a Wilson
Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate
Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a
DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books--a $25
value). Please e-mail us
your bid soon.
« Letter Re: A Resource on Make-It-Yourself Backpacking Gear |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: Generating Photovoltaic Power When Grid Power is Available
Jim:
I agree completely with your comment that [photovoltaic] solar systems should
not be grid-tied to run the meter backward [to isolate the photovoltaic system
from potentially devastating coupled electromagnetic pulse (EMP).]
When the grid is available to home or retreat, I believe it is worth connecting.
It is the easiest way to deal with barns, 220 volt tools and wells, but some
thought to solar wiring can go a long way. Many custom homes and retreats were
built with home-run wiring before the price of wire jumped so high. A number
of these homes and retreats can be solar-controlled simply by DPDT switching
circuit wiring at the fuse box.
Think of two modes – solar when the grid is up and solar when the grid
is down. The thing many people have not thought through is how to utilize their
solar power when the grid is up and they make the lazy choice to grid-tie to
realize the value from their solar system. Grid-up, I run a server and a large
desktop computer from solar. Grid-down, I only run my laptop and have to control
my well (dual 110 volt inverters) versus my refrigerator and chest freezer
so they do not run at the same time. Grid-up, all my barns, refrigeration and
220 VAC is
on the grid and most other 110 VAC is off-grid. When I leave the property,
the grid tie is broken (I don’t need the well then.) and all phantom
loads, lighting and refrigeration are solar run.
All my computers are hooked to my computer network by wireless cards. My television
is wireless as well. This was very difficult to do because I have Charter [Communications,
Inc.] high-definition cable [television service.] It took a broad-band wireless
repeater between the converter box and the television. My solar system utilizes
all available solar power and protects me fairly well from EMP. My home/retreat
has well-insulated metal siding and metal roof for some added fire and EMP
protection. - SAR
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Generating Photovoltaic Power When Grid Power is Available »
Letter Re: A Resource on Make-It-Yourself Backpacking Gear
Hello,
I came across this web site and thought I'd send you the link to a page at
Backpacking.net: Make
Your Own Gear! I can't even sew my shirt buttons back on, but maybe it
would be of use to other readers. [JWR Adds: Don't miss the
individual plans in the left hand bar.]
By the way, I gave your novel a good review on Amazon.com. Most everybody did.
But I included a motivational quote in it that really means a lot to me. I
heard it from an Amway tape many years ago:
"I will do today what others will not do, so I can do tomorrow what others cannot
do". I think it really speaks the survival mindset.
Have a great day, - Rod McG.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: A Resource on Make-It-Yourself Backpacking Gear »
Odds 'n Sods:
SurvivalBlog reader "Cyberiot" mentioned that readers with concerns
about pandemic flu may be interested in a new and growing online storybook
sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). "Pandemic
Influenza Storybook: Personal Recollections from Survivors, Families, and Friends" includes
first-person accounts of the 1918 and 1957 flu pandemics. Readers are encouraged
to contribute their own recollections. Speaking of flu pandemics, earlier this
year, New Scientist magazine published a
detailed analysis of how a 1918-scale influenza pandemic would affect the US
economy.
o o o
I've heard from a reader that he plans to attend the ASPO
Peak Oil Conference in Sacramento, California, later this month. When
you attend events like these, please wear a
SurvivalBlog t-shirt or hat, or carry one of our tote bags or messenger bags.
You may be surprised who you bump into! (And we need all the publicity we can
get.)
o o o
Range Rat sent us this article: Survey
finds holes in US disaster preparedness. Range
Rat's comment: I think they are trying to go against basic human nature trying
to get parents to evacuate without
their children. No wonder 63% won't
go along
with
the plan.
I'm shocked that 37% said that they would!
o o o
Our Economic Editor sent us another raft of news and commentary: The
Feds Are Running Scared, Feds
Considering Bringing Fannie, Freddie On To Budget, "Let
Them Eat Cake", Pareto's
Bazooka, Calling
US Bonds Home, Deployed
to the Dole Line (The Mogambo Guru), Stop
the Bailout, Bailouts
Will Push US Into Depression, WaMu
Downgraded to D+, and BofA
Says Losses Have Shifted to Commercial Loans.
o o o
John Embry comments on the coming bounce in precious metals prices: When
gold is gone, market will go nuts. I concur that the price of gold is currently
undervalued. It is a good time to buy physical gold! (Buying junior gold mining shares
is much more risky, but the potential profits are larger.)
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair
weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to
day: for the sky is red and lowering. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face
of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?" - Matthew 16:2-3
« Note from JWR: |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
Note from JWR:
I was saddened to hear that Chuck
Karwan passed away last week, following open
heart surgery. He was an exemplary American, a USMA West
Point graduate (1969) that served in Vietnam and elsewhere (1st Calvary Division
(Airmobile), 5th Infantry Division (Mechanized), and the 5th and 10th Special
Forces Groups), and was a noted writer on knives and military firearms. He
will
be
missed,
especially
by his friends in Oregon.
The SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction ends tonight (September 15th) at midnight, eastern
time. The
high bid is now at $580. The auction for a mixed lot that
includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated
by Ready Made
Resources--a $320 value), a
NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U--a $160 value), a Wilson
Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate
Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a
DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books--a $25
value). Please e-mail us
your bid, ASAP.
« The Lehman Brothers Debacle Illustrates the Extent of the Global Credit Collapse |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Note from JWR:
A SurvivalBlog reader in northwestern Alabama wrote me to mention that he
witnessed the local price of gasoline jump $.70 per gallon overnight (to $5.35
per gallon.)
This presumably, was in anticipation of a disruption in supply because of Hurricane
Ike. It bears mentioning that many SurvivalBlog readers wisely have at-home
underground gas and diesel tanks. Among other benefits, these allows them to
ride out the ravages of occasional
price
spikes like this one, in which even wholesale gasoline jumped to over $5 per
gallon! It is starting to look pretty C.C.R.-ish out there. (As
the song goes: "Hope
you have got your things together." and "Looks like we're in for
nasty weather.")
« Letter Re: A SurvivalBlog Reader Prepares for Hurricane Ike |Main| Note from JWR: »
The Lehman Brothers Debacle Illustrates the Extent of the Global Credit Collapse
You probably saw yesterday's headline in The
Wall Street Journal: Lehman
Races to Find a Buyer. Well, well. The once mighty Lehman
Brothers
Holdings firm had a market capitalization of $47 Billion last year. But when
I last looked, it was
down
to
a
paltry
$2.58 billion. The company is now definitely on the ropes. It
is likely that the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
is going to grow even larger.
There
will
probably
be an announcement made this weekend of a "private" takeover of Lehman--possibly
including an overseas "white knight"--but down in the fine print
we will learn that the deal will all be guaranteed (directly or more likely indirectly)
with
funds
from
either
the
Federal Reserve
or the U.S. Treasury. (For now, Federal officials assert that they are merely "helping"
to arrange a private sale.) Does
this
sound
reminiscent
of the Goldman
Sachs bailout, around this time last year? Methinks they'll use the same
mechanism.
Stepping back a bit, it is apparent that the Lehman Brothers debacle is merely
symptomatic of a global credit market that is badly broken.
Liquidity has dried up more than at any time in living memory, and companies
are desperate for working capital. The Lehman failure will
not be the last collapse
of an
investment
bank, nor
the
largest. In my estimation, the liquidity collapse will continue, taking down
some of
the
titans
of Wall
Street, in the process. As assets collapse in value, creditworthiness shrinks,
and margin calls are made, in a widening death spiral. I believe that it is
very likely that in the months to come, you will hear of huge derivatives
failures,
with vanishing counterparties leaving the other half of the "perfectly
balanced risk sharing"
model twisting in the breeze. There will be huge hedge funds that go belly-up,
leaving their investors with little or nothing. First will come word of hedge
fund redemption suspensions, followed by news of fund collapses, followed by
news of pennies
on the dollar
settlements, or perhaps no pay-outs whatsoever. Keep in mind that these funds
are not FDIC insured,
so hedge fund investors could lose everything.
Watching this slow-moving avalanche will be agonizing, and last for years.
As I've written before, it will be impossible to predict when it will end,
because nobody can gauge where the "bottom" is, as entire asset
classes lose more and more value. Up until now, most of the media attention
has been focused on residential real estate. But for more than a year, I've
been waiting for the other shoe to drop: commercial real estate.
As the recession continues and companies tighten their belts and begin laying
off employees in earnest, a drop in commercial real estate is inevitable. Next
we'll hear of stock market declines, and perhaps a full scale collapse of share
prices. Then will come municipal bond failures, and both private and public
pension fund failures.
Depending on how long the downward cycle continues, this could make the Great
Depression of the 1930s seem mild, by comparison.
Be ready. Be prepared to lose your job. Now might be the time to think in
terms of secondary streams of income. Build up a home-based business so that
you will be able to meet your basic needs
and
pay
your property
taxes.
If you
haven't done so already, then get out of debt. Free up as much cash as possible
by selling your collectibles, your vacation property, and your "Big
Boy Toys".
(What is more important: to you? Your neighbors admiring a fancy Jet Ski
in your carport, or feeding your
family?) Sell your sports car, and buy a beat-up ut mechanically sound Saturn
or Toyota Corolla. Cash out of most of your US dollar-denominated investments. After paying
down your debts, put the cash that is generated into a one year storage food
supply and some practical, liquid tangibles. It is essential that you do not
hesitate. If you wait another
few
months,
the prices of "fru-fru" collectibles will plummet. Sell them now,
while they are still worth something. Prepare and stand ready to provide
for your family, regardless of what happens beyond your control. It is
your
responsibility
to prepare.
The Memsahib Adds: In the context of all this talk of gloom
and doom, I must add that it is important to maintain balance, perspective,
and a positive Christ-centered outlook. Take time daily to enjoy
the blessings of your family and friends. Don't obsess on the darker aspect
of the "what if?" future to the point that you stop enjoying life and make
those around you miserable. Husbands in particular, take note: Prepare so that
you
can provide for your families, but don't forget to enjoy the blessings that
we enjoy in the present day. Keep in mind Ecclesiastes 9:7-9:
"Go then, eat
your bread in happiness and drink your wine with a cheerful heart; for God
has already
approved your works.
Let your clothes be white all the time, and let not
oil be lacking on your head.
Enjoy life with the woman whom you love all
the days of your fleeting life which He has given to you under the sun; for
this is your reward in life and in your toil in which you have labored under
the sun."
« Letter Re: National Geographic's Cover Story on Soil and Food |Main| The Lehman Brothers Debacle Illustrates the Extent of the Global Credit Collapse »
Letter Re: A SurvivalBlog Reader Prepares for Hurricane Ike
Dear Mr. Editor:
Just a quick note to tell you how people that read your blog are preparing
for Ike. Thanks for all the great information.
I live near Houston in the suburbs, about 60 miles north of Galveston. Most
of the stores are open and have plenty of water, drinks, bread, tuna and other
canned foods. The stores have done a much better job this time of keeping needed
items in stock than they did when Katrina was headed this way a couple years
ago. The gas is going fast, and many stations are closed. I filled both my
vehicles Thursday morning in preparation for the storm, even though I am not
leaving. I expect a lot of rain and wind, but little rising water this far
inland. Thanks to you, I am prepared. I have all my bottled water, food, flashlights,
batteries, generator, extra fuel, tools and tarps, first aid kit, my bug out
bag and firearms ready. We have copies of all our important papers and photo’s
on DVD, along with extra cash and computer backup’s in the gun safe.
We have secured our home as best we can and picked up anything outside that
could be blown by the wind. I understand from other people that if someone
wants your generator they just come and take it even at gun point. That will
not happen here. I am a Life member of the NRA if that tells you something.
Thanks again. Best Regards, - A Loyal Reader in Texas
« Letter Re: An E-Mailed SurvivalBlog Digest? |Main| Letter Re: A SurvivalBlog Reader Prepares for Hurricane Ike »
Letter Re: National Geographic's Cover Story on Soil and Food
JWR,
Here's
a link to the September 2008 National Geographic cover story about the
world's fragile soils and their diminishing capacity to feed 6.5 billion+ people
as well as cautionary examples of places where the soils can no longer support
the existing population due to poor stewardship in the past.
Pages 92-93 of the hardcopy edition have a great fold out map showing soil
fertility areas around the world -- a good retreats and relocation general
shopping reference (although certainly not detailed enough for researching
specific properties). My Best, - Lee in Hurricane Alley
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: National Geographic's Cover Story on Soil and Food »
Letter Re: An E-Mailed SurvivalBlog Digest?
Sir,
I would like to sign up to get your blogs [via e-mail]; but I can't see
where I do that; Could you please help me. Thanks, - Dianne M.
JWR Replies: For the privacy of my readers, I don't have
a digest of my blog that is e-mailed. (I don't like to keep lists. I don't
even keep records of anyone that makes a voluntary subscription donation.)
Just direct your web browser whenever you'd like
to
read
SurvivalBlog.
It is
updated daily (and I haven't missed a
day since the
blog was started three years ago), so you might want to make it your browser's "home" page,
so that you'll be able to read all of the useful articles, letters, and quotes.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: An E-Mailed SurvivalBlog Digest? »
Odds 'n Sods:
U.K.
state memo warns of "anarchy" in the city streets. (Thanks
to Florida Guy for the link.)
o o o
Yishai flagged this for us, from The
Morning Brief: "This could be the
mother of year-ends," Brian
Sack, of Macroeconomic Advisers and a former Federal Reserve chief market analyst,
tells Bloomberg, which says the Fed may have to increase the cash it provides
to banks and brokers beyond already-record levels to help them balance their
books at the end of the year in the wake of six bank failures in the past two
months and rising concern about Lehman's capital levels. Lenders' borrowing
costs may climb further as companies rush for cash to settle trades and buttress
their balance sheets at year-end, Bloomberg says. Meanwhile,
o o o
Reader John S. mentioned that Interordnance currently
has a couple of bargains for folks that like to stock up on barter items in
quantity: HK G3 (HK91) alloy magazines
for $1 each if you buy 1,000 or more, and crates of 20 re-arsenalized
Mosin Nagant 91/30 bolt action 7.62x54r rifles for $1,100 per crate. John notes:
"This might
be a good deal for a group that wanted to have extra inexpensive bolt action
rifles on hand to pass out to others for defense purposes." An FFL is
required for ordering the rifles. BTW, anyone looking for pre-1899 bolt actions
that do not require
an FFL should contact The
Pre-1899
Specialist (one of our loyal advertisers) or Empire
Arms.
o o o
Eric spotted this one from MarketWatch: Foreclosures.com
Reports More Than 100,000 Homeowners
Lost Homes in August; One Million Foreclosures Expected in 2008
o o o
Thanks to EMBW for the link to a Popular
Mechanics article
on hidden spaces.
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
'What's good for the goose is good for the gander.' So, if government financial
'favors' are granted to reckless investment firms (Bear Stearns) and now mortgage
borrowers, what about other economically vital 'multiplier' industries like:
automakers, airlines, credit card and insurance companies and even corporate
real estate lenders? The logical conclusion for this current drift is hyperinflation.
In order to make good on its promises the Federal Government will have to resort
to the printing press...with a vengeance. - John Browne
« Energy Dependence and U.S. Military Policy, by Edward C. |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
I have some proverbial "good news and bad news" about the upcoming
re-publishing of my novel "Patriots:
Surviving the Coming Collapse". First the bad news: Because the
publisher's schedule is packed, the book won't be available for ordering until
March of 2009. The
good news: It
will probably include both a glossary and an index! Both are quite unusual
for a novel, but if J.R.R. Tolkien's publisher could do it, then so can
mine. Perhaps I need
to put a map in
the frontispiece, with The Rocky Mountains in the place of The Misty Mountains.;-).
More details will follow, as the book gets closer to publication.
Today we present another entry for Round 18 of the SurvivalBlog
non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:
First Prize: The writer of the best contributed
article in the next 60 days will be awarded two transferable Front
Sight "Gray" Four Day Training Course Certificates. This
is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint
Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day
civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles
Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing
Round 18 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us
your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills
for survival will have an advantage in the judging.
« Letter Re: Build it Yourself Farm and Homestead Equipment |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Energy Dependence and U.S. Military Policy, by Edward C.
“Oil is the world’s most critical resource”, and “without
it, nothing works in an industrialized civilization as currently configured”1.“The
issue is not whether DoD will be able to obtain the oil it needs to provide
for our national defense, because it will”, but “trends in global
supply and consumption patterns” serve to further “complicate…the
challenge of providing fuel to DoD’s far-flung operations as well as
affecting the price DoD must pay for fuel”2.
“Historically, no other energy source equals oil’s intrinsic qualities
of extractability, transportability, versatility, and cost”3. The
qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal as the front-line energy
source for
the industrialized world in the middle of the 20th century are as relevant
today as they were then”4. Accordingly,
and despite the best efforts of countless scientists in virtually all developed
economies, “there
is no (currently) viable substitute for petroleum”5. Oil
is the very substance that provides not only for the global economy, but also
for the continued
American dominance on the world’s geopolitical stage. American power
projection, both in terms of a diplomatic goal, but also military enforcement
is totally reliant on petroleum and oil products. America’s relatively
remote location to the global hot-spots of the Middle East and Eurasia is bridged
by its navy and air forces – propelled by oil. Sustained land operations
can not be currently fueled by any other means. Oil – or the dependence
on it as the primary means of supplying energy – is becoming the key
determinant for current and future national security policy. Accordingly, unless
the United States fully recognizes this dependence, understands the threat
to the American supply of oil from foreign suppliers and international competitors,
and undertakes active measures to reduce the dependence on foreign oil, America
will cease to be a global superpower.
The United States economy, and accordingly its current way of life, is virtually
entirely dependent on foreign oil and the mercy of the suppliers. “The
United States possesses 3 percent of the world’s remaining oil reserves
but uses 25 percent of world daily oil production”6. “America imports
almost 60% of its oil today” and, at current rates, will import “70%
by 2025”7. For example, “well over half of the oil and petroleum
products consumed in America—approximately 12 million barrels per day,
or more than 600 gallons for every man, woman, and child each year—now
come from abroad8. And, the U.S. government projects that the level of imports
will only continue to rise, reaching between 16 and 21 million barrels per
day by 20259. As a result, the United States has little choice but to continue
its involvement in foreign conflicts directly tied to seeking and securing
a steady supply of oil based energy. The greater America’s “dependence
on oil, the greater the pressure to protect and control that oil”10.
“The use of military power to protect the flow of oil has been a central
tenet of U.S. foreign policy since 1945”, the year that President Franklin
D. Roosevelt “promised King Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia that the United
States would protect the kingdom in return for special access to Saudi oil”11. In
1980, President Jimmy Carter “announced that the secure flow of oil
from the Persian Gulf was in ‘the vital interests of the United States
of America’ and that America would use ‘any means necessary, including
military force’ to protect those interests from outside forces”12. There
is little doubt that the 1991 conflict in Iraq was tied to America’s
requirement for a stable supply of oil, and it is arguable that the current
conflict in that same country has as much to do with oil as it does the Global
War on Terror.
It is no wonder that the United States is so deeply invested in the Middle
East, as two-thirds of the world’s oil is located there. However, that
is not to say that America couldn’t find adequate short term supplies
elsewhere, especially while alternative energy strategies are pursued. The
first problem is that these “other oil suppliers, such as Venezuela,
Russia, and West Africa, are also politically unstable and hold no significant
long-term oil reserves compared to those in the Middle East”13. While
the “intractable conflict with insurgent militant Islam has occupied
center stage of the geopolitical scene for several years” other regional
and global security issues are far from resolved14. Military actions in the
former Soviet republic of Georgia reminds the world that Russia is far from
ready to relinquish its former position on the world stage. Oil prices continue
to sway as global security is further jeopardized, and consequently American
diplomatic and military efforts see no respite in sight. Conflict in the Middle-East,
and the neighboring Eurasian provinces, is not the only factor that could directly
affect the flow of oil resources to the United States. The second takes the
form of America’s emerging global energy competitor.
“With over one billion people, China is second only to the U.S. in oil
consumption—and
gaining fast”15. Furthermore, “China
has one of the fastest growing economies in the world and an energy demand
that is projected to grow by 150%
by 2020”16. “China has little
petroleum of its own, and it has been explored relentlessly, acre by acre,
as a purely government enterprise
unhampered by normal cost considerations”17. “China
currently imports half of its oil, and like the United States, China will become
increasingly
dependent on oil from the Middle East”18.
As a result, “access to Middle East oil will over time become a key issue
in relations between the two nations”19. “The more U.S. actions
in the Middle East are perceived as an effort to dominate oil resources there,
the more China will consider the United States a threat to its interests, and
visa-versa”20. “In the current context of stagnating supply, this
kind of demand competition is very destabilizing”21. As China is recognized
not only for its energy requirements, the true gravity of the threat to America’s
primacy becomes clearer.
When placed in context with America’s presence in Iraq and Afghanistan,
a conflict less and less (if ever) palatable to Saudi Arabia and her Islamic
neighbors, a continued economic and security relationship with the West could
be threatened. China’s centrally managed and exploding economy, fueled
largely through foreign oil, could easily supply the Middle Eastern oil producing
nations with their much needed revenue. Furthermore, China’s peerless
military can certainly provide the regional security those nations require. “China
is a nuclear power with a nuclear ‘umbrella’ that it can spread
out to shelter client nations”22. “China is geographically closer
to the Middle East than America” and could comfortably protect the region
at least as acceptably as America23. More threatening to America’s current
security relationship is that “China could enter into a protective relationship
with any number of nations from Central Asia to the Middle East, including
an Arabia run by a militant Islamic theocracy”, and do so without the
West’s burdensome “religious encumbrances”24. America must
address this plausible threat, in hopes of “defusing a potential U.S.-Chinese
rivalry over global oil supplies” and seek ways to not only partner with
China in the long-term while reducing foreign oil dependency beginning in the
short-term25.
Even once recognizing America’s dependence on foreign oil, the U.S. is
virtually powerless to anything about it. America is held hostage to the shifting
global markets, and the political views, perceptions, and instabilities of
the oil producing nations. As such, despite the fact that energy dependence
is likely never to cease, America must at least seek viable strategies to reduce
or mitigate that dependence. America is at least beginning to take notice.
According to U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, “The real lesson
here [is that] it only requires a relatively small amount of oil to be taken
out of the system to have huge economic and security implications”26. However, recognition of that fact does not immediately translate to a shift
in policy.
Understandably, the military end-item acquisition process places “the
highest priority on performance”27. It is, after all, performance that
insures America its air, land and sea supremacy. However, performance comes
at a cost, a cost that is not always identified or considered during procurement.
In FY99, “it cost the Air Force over $2.5 billion to deliver 130 million
gallons of fuel”28. More specifically, “the Air Force spent 84
percent of its fuel delivery budget to deliver 6 percent of its fuel in FY99”29. Furthermore, “to deliver a gallon of fuel through a tanker in-flight
costs $17.50 per gallon”, to (ground) “deliver a gallon of fuel
to the forward edge of a battle area (FEBA) costs about $15.00”, while
delivering a gallon of fuel far beyond the FEBA costs hundreds of dollars per
gallon”30.
These unintended, or overlooked, costs not only exemplify America’s reliance
on fuel to fight, but also how greater efficiency could save the taxpayers
billions of dollars – dollars that could be spent on other defense technologies
and support materials, or even to explore alternative means to reduce foreign
energy dependence. But, conventional “operational and logistics wargaming
focuses on mission execution, considering fuel as a fixed demand to be satisfied”,
whose availability is a “given”31. However, due in large part to
the rapidly rising costs of energy and the recognition of greater uncertainty
with respect to long-term oil supplies, the DoD has begun to examine the energy
dependence problem.
In the summer of 2005, select members gathered to conduct a combination wargame
and economic simulation centered on energy and national policy, known as ‘Oil
Shockwave’. “In a scenario confronted by the bipartisan panel of
intelligence, military, and energy experts, a series of events over several
months - unrest in Nigeria, an attack on an Alaskan oil facility, and the emergency
evacuation of foreign nationals from Saudi Arabia - drives the price of oil
to over $150 per barrel”32. “These events lower expected employment
levels by more than 2 million jobs, embolden countries that are major oil producers
and consumers to pressure the U.S. on key foreign policy concerns, and cause
a variety of other significant economic and security challenges”33. It
is not the plausibility of the scenario that merits attention, but simply the
fact that foreign energy dependence is beginning to be actively recognized
as directly related to U.S. national security.
Until the global economy no longer needs oil, America’s future shall
remain so yoked. However, through recognition – exemplified by policy
statements and exercises like “Oil Shockwave” – America can
strengthen her national security by increasing fuel efficiency. In other words,
America may still need foreign oil, but not so much. Not only will increased
efficiency save the taxpayers money, but it could also serve to temper the
possibility of conflict (with nations like China) over oil.
Increased military fuel efficiency may become a requirement, regardless of
global supply. With U.S. federal spending tipping the scales at over $2.6 trillion
annually, it is likely that the American people could tire of large defense
budgets ($521.8 billion in 2006) when faced with rising fuel costs and the
strain of more palatable domestic spending34. As it stands today, Medicare,
Medicaid, and Social Security account for 39.9 percent of the federal budget,
or $1.05 trillion35. Finally, interest on national debt and other non-defense
discretionary spending account for 40.4 percent of the federal budget, or $1.57
trillion36. While the American populace ages, thus requiring consistent and
even increasing domestic spending to fund the aforementioned programs, the
people grow war weary. The direct costs, in the form of monetary spending,
and indirect costs, in the form of the American casualties, have adversely
shifted popular opinion with respect to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
When faced with making choices between domestic programs and spending blood
and treasure overseas, the electorate may choose to reduce defense spending
by way of the ballot box. However, Americans understandably require a strong
military to defend them, even if they don’t want to pay for it. Also,
greater fuel costs could effectively slow, or halt, defense acquisitions due
to fewer available purchasing dollars. If future administrations are forced
to adjust defense spending – be it through a shift in the defense paradigm
or because of greater fuel costs – efficiency is one solution.
Recent government studies have both addressed the need for greater defense
related fuel efficiencies, but also identified that increased efficiency does
not have to mean a loss in warfighting capabilities – quite the opposite.
Published in 2005, a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers report, titled Energy Trends
and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations, first recognized that “energy
consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for
the (U.S. military) to carry out its mission…, and that current trends
are not sustainable”37. “The impact of excessive, unsustainable
energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports”38. The report methodically details the challenges the nation faces with respect
to energy assurance, and the related impacts. The report concludes with the
following;
“The national and world energy situation mandates strategic planning and action
by the Army. The pending challenges of meeting the Army’s ongoing energy
requirements in a reliable, affordable, sustainable, and secure fashion demand
thoughtful and comprehensive approaches. A deliberate careful review of energy
source options and resulting tradeoffs is necessary. The informed and disciplined
management of consumption is imperative.”39.
A 2001 report, chartered by the Under-Secretary of Defense for Acquisition
Technology, and Logistics, titled “More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced
Fuel Burden”, concluded that it is possible to “strengthen the
linkage between warfighting capabilities and fuel…requirements through
wargaming and new analytical tools” that examine fuel costs and efficiencies40. Furthermore, greater efficiencies can aid specific warfighting capabilities
such as maneuver, security, and simplicity, to name a few. Maneuver is aided
through efficiency by platforms being able to “travel faster and farther
with reduced weight and smaller logistics tails that improve platform agility,
loiter and flexibility”41. Security is enhanced by decreasing “platform
vulnerability to attacks on supply lines, and reduces demand for strategic
reserves”42. Finally, simplicity is realized through decreasing the “complexity
and frequency of refueling operations and logistics planning, while reducing
vulnerability to the ‘Fog of War’”43. Through such creative
approaches, it is possible to maintain the performance that the services require
while reducing fuel related costs.
There is no doubt that America can not maintain her global primacy without
oil. Oil continues to drive national security policy, as revealed through America’s
continued involvement in Middle Eastern affairs and conflicts. The United States
has long known the importance of foreign oil, and her continued dependence
on it. However, stagnating supplies as well as China’s emergence as a
global competitor – both economically and militarily as well as a voracious
oil consumer – has forced the United States to re-examine its energy
dependence situation. The U.S. must accept that fact that through either open
competition or economic pressures, America may not always enjoy such a free-flow
of Arabian oil, thus placing its global primacy and national security in jeopardy.
Accordingly, America’s only choice is to both embrace its competitors – in
this case China – while seeking ways to mitigate the dependence on foreign
oil and its impact on defense spending. Strategies such as more realistic operational
wargaming and actively seeking efficiency solutions both reduce uncertainty
while aiding America’s warfighting effectiveness. If such strategies
are adopted, then America may very well retain its global primacy.
Notes
1) Kunstler, James Howard. The Long Emergency, New York: Grove Press,
2005. 64
2) Schneider, William. More Capable
Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden. 7
3) Fenderson, Adam and Anderson, Bart. US Army: Peak Oil and the Army's future
4) Ibid
5) Ibid
6) Kunstler, 66
7) Collina, Tom Z. Oil
Dependence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Real Dangers, Realistic Solutions.
2
8) Duffield, John S. Over a Barrel: The Costs of U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence
9) Ibid
10) Collina, 2
11) Ibid, 3
12) Ibid
13) Ibid, 2
14) Kunstler, 62
15) Collina, 4
16) Ibid
17) Kunstler, 83
18) Collina, 4
19) Ibid
20) Ibid
21) Ibid
22) Kunstler, 84
23) Ibid
24) Ibid
25) Collina, 4
26) Ibid, 5
27) Schneider, 65
28) Ibid, 18
29) Ibid
30) Ibid, 67
31) Ibid, 70
32) National Commission on Energy Policy. Oil Dependence Creates Severe National
Security and Economic Risks
33) Ibid
34) Bittle, Scott and Johnson, Jean. Where Does the Money Go?, New York: Harper
Collins, 2008. 83
35) Ibid
36) Ibid
37) Fournier, Donald F. and Westervelt, Eileen T. Energy
Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations; available from: p.
xi
38) Ibid
39) Ibid, 59
40) Schneider, 75
41) Ibid, 10
42) Ibid
43) Ibid
Bibliography
1) Bittle, Scott and Johnson, Jean. Where Does the Money Go?, New York: Harper
Collins, 2008.
2) Collina, Tom Z. Oil Dependence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Real Dangers, Realistic
Solutions
3) Duffield, John S. Over a Barrel: The Costs of U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence
4) Fenderson, Adam and Anderson, Bart. US Army: Peak Oil and the Army's future
5) Fournier, Donald F. and Westervelt, Eileen T. Energy Trends and Their Implications
for U.S. Army Installations
6) Kunstler, James Howard. The Long Emergency, New York: Grove Press, 2005.
7) National Commission on Energy Policy. Oil Dependence Creates Severe National
Security and Economic Risks
8) Schneider, William. More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Energy Dependence and U.S. Military Policy, by Edward C. »
Letter Re: Build it Yourself Farm and Homestead Equipment
Mr Rawles
While looking for plans and ideas for a new outbuilding for my home. I found
this
little gem solid information buried deep in the Countyplans.com web site.
It has probably has around 150 plans to build everything from a Turret Lathe
and Mill to Cement Mixers and Tractor Scoop Loaders. This stuff is
in PDF format, download able and free. The plans are reprints from old do
it yourself magazines and are past copyright so there isn't any legal issues
with the downloads
Now a lot of these equipment plans would not pass the government's current
nurf world standards for safety so use them at your risk. Anyone who has ever
work
around
farm equipment knows to keep on their toes or you might end up with a interesting
new nickname. Glad to hear the Memsahib is back in charge, our prayers are
with you and yours. - Henry S.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Build it Yourself Farm and Homestead Equipment »
Odds 'n Sods:
With a web search, I came across a couple of Tsunami e-mail alert pages. One
for
coastal
Alaska, coastal Canada, and coastal United States, and one
for the
entire Pacific Ocean. Speaking of alert e-mails, Weather.com
provides
free regional e-mail/cell phone severe weather alerts.
And,
as
I've
mentioned
in SurvivalBlog before, anyone
interested in radio propagation can get free
solar flare alerts.
(The latter is also useful for those of use that enjoy watching auroral
displays.) But presently, of course, we are at a sunspot minimum.
o
o
o
David F.sent us a link to an article that confirms my prediction
for a recovery in the price of nickel: Poseidon's
Singleton Says Nickel Price at `Bottom of Curve'
o o o
The recent discussion of night vision prompted reader Bill N. to send us a
link to a
useful article on night adaptation and off-center viewing.
o o o
Foreign Bondholders - and not the U.S. Mortgage Market - Drove the Fannie/Freddie
Bailout
o o o
Paul from Kentucky and Rourke both sent us this: Miraculous
survivors: Why they live while others die
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
While bankers do control the issuance of credit, they cannot control themselves.
Bankers are the fatal flaw in their deviously opaque system that has substituted
credit for money and debt for savings. The bankers have spread their credit-based
system across the world by catering to basic human needs and ambition and
greed; and while human needs can be satisfied, ambition and greed cannot-and
the bankers’ least of all. - Darryl
Schoon
« Two Letters Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
It has now been seven years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. I give
thanks to our servicemen who have helped stop additional attacks here in the
States. Please support our troops, not with just lip service
and a yellow ribbon magnet on the back of your car, but tangibly,
and with consistent regularity. And if you are an employer, then please consider
hiring a returning veteran.
Is
Hurricane Ike headed toward Galveston, Texas? Batten down the hatches, folks.
I'm sure that by now, the well-read SurvivalBlog readers on the Gulf Coast have a Plan B and a Plan C, and they have thoroughly studied alternate evacuation routes on minor
roads.
« Three Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Two Letters Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought
Hi Jim:
I understand about an EMP attack and it's possibilities to wreak havoc. But
I can't help but wonder when I hear about a possible future EMP attack if
we are trying to convince the terrorists through disinformation to detonate
their nuclear weapons at a safe altitude instead of over the capitol during
the state of the union speech.
I am thinking that for an EMP attack to be effective they would need at least
4 or 5 high yield nuclear weapons of at least 1 megaton each . These would
have to be evenly spread over the US relative to population density. Russia
could pull it off, and I am sure they would begin a nuclear attack an EMP.
But I think the EMP effects of one 15 kiloton range weapon a terrorist would
have would be isolated.
I could be wrong, but I can't help but wonder. - David
Jim:
That EMP report is good news.It shows that an EMP attack would cause
significant but not catastrophic disruptions in our critical national infrastructure,
and only scattered failures of cars,
computers, and other electronic devices. These facts are even more favorable
than I wrote in my e-mail to you in March of 2007. As I suspected, but couldn't
prove at the time, the anti-ESD structures
in modern semiconductors are very effective against EMP.
The report shows, for example, that there is no longer any strong reason to
avoid modern cars. Of 37 modern cars tested in the report, only three were
temporarily stopped when exposed to EMP while running, and all could be restarted.
Only one car experienced permanent damage, but that was to some unidentified
electronics in the dashboard apparently not affecting drivability.
From my experience in the electronics industry, I believe that the most modern,
most expensive cars-- the ones intended to last a long time-- are the most
survivable because they are more likely to incorporate better-designed, better-protected
and thus more-expensive electronics.
As another hard data point, modern radios are basically immune to EMP. The
report states "none of the radios tested showed any damage with EMP fields
up to 50 kV/m." The same circuits that protect radios from ESD to antennas
and controls protect them from EMP.
The report is quite definite: EMP is a serious threat to anything with long
wires, but not so much to anything small, portable, or mobile.
An EMP attack from a fission weapon would be harmful, especially to our power
and telecommunications systems, but the effect would be local and temporary--
not really very different from that of a hurricane or powerful earthquake.
You owe it to your readers to set the record straight on this topic - PNG
JWR Replies: Yes, that report is good news for automobiles
and mobile, battery-operated electronic devices with short antennas. However,
the huge, almost incalculable problem is that railroad networks, power
grids,
and to a lesser extent telephone systems serve as enormous antennas for EMP
that
can carry EMP for very long distances. In the event of a high altitude
megaton-range hydrogen bomb blast, this linear coupling will carry EMP
for hundreds of
miles beyond line of sight (BLOS).
Within that extended footprint it could potentially fry the microcircuits of
any device that is
plugged in to a utility power wall socket. There could be hundreds of billions
of dollars worth of short term damage and a multiple of that in long term damage
(loss of productivity) and along with it the risk of a societal collapse and
an enormous die-off due to dislocation, exposure, and disrupted chains of supply.
Linear coupling of EMP is one of the reasons that I discourage people from
installing "grid-tied"
photovoltaic power systems. Sure, it is great fun watching a power meter
run backwards and getting a check in the mail from your utility instead of
a bill for eight months of each year. But the EMP risk outweighs the benefits.
If you go solar, then make it a stand-alone system! Linear
coupling is also the reason that I advocate keeping
all of your spare radios and computers disconnected and stored in Faraday-shielded
containers whenever they are not being used.
What I took away from the report is confirmation of what I had concluded years
ago: That for next 10 to 30 years, the EMP threat posed by terrorists will
be localized, since
they
will
most
likely
have
access to low-yield fission bombs and will be most likely to employ them in
ground bursts with small "footprints". In ground bursts or in low-altitude
air bursts, the line of sight is limited, minimizing the EMP effect. But
in any case the linear coupling through the power grid could magnify the EMP
damage.
I concur with the report's finding that there is a the possibility of a massive
population loss in the event of a well-coordinated EMP attack by a major power
such as Russia or China. That scenario is a "time on target" attack
with multiple simultaneous high altitude air bursts of multi-megaton hydrogen
bombs.
Such an attack would blanket the entire continental United States with high
field strength EMP. The word "devastating" doesn't begin to convey
the long term
effects. We'd find ourselves back to both 19th Century technology and 19th
Century population levels. And, BTW, much of the most heavily populated portions
of
Canada and Mexico would receive extensive collateral EMP damage.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought »
Three Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen
Jim,
I write to you again as I pull another EMS duty shift. So far tonight I have
had one EMS call and it was a "difficulty breathing" call. Our local
law enforcement officers (LEOs) already had the patient on 15LPM.
of 02 via
non-rebreather mask (NRBM)
before we got on scene. The LEOs tend to over inflate, so I titrated
the flow
down to 8LPM., which worked for the patient's breathing pattern. I'm glad
our LEOs are proactive, but this means that I don't get a baseline Room Air
(RA)
02 saturation for comparison and it does waste some O2 until I get there.
Hint: We use NRBMs on
the rig because from this one type of mask you can make the other types simply
by removing the circular rubber flap valves. The NRBM
has one inspiration valve at the top of the bag inside the mask; and two other
expiration valves outside the mask on each side of the nose. When you exhale,
the side expiration valves open allowing exhaled air and CO2 to escape outside
the mask. But when you inhale, these same valves close, and the inspiration
valve opens, allowing 100% O2 to enter the mask from the inflated bag. Hence
the name non-rebreather mask because the patient is not re-breathing his own
exhaled air. There is no outside air entrainment (provided the mask has a good
seal).
1) If you take the same NRBM mask and remove one or both of the expiration
valves from the side of the nose, you now have a partial rebreather mask, since
when the patient inhales, 100% O2 from the bag is mixed with room air from
the removed side valve port.
2) If you take both side valves off, and replace the bag O2 port with the straight
line O2 port (that is included in the NRBM package), you now have a simple
mask.
3) Here's another trick, if you take the straight line O2 port off the mask,
and replace it with the bottom medicine cup of a nebulizer, you have a aerosol
mask for administering nebulized medications like albuterol sulfate.
As more air entrainment is allowed, the overall O2 percentage decreases from
the 100% @ 8LPM. - 10LPM. of the NRBM to approximately 28% @ 2LPM. O2 of the
nasal cannula. It doesn't mean your wasting O2 by using a nasal cannula, (since
it uses a lower flow rate) your just choosing the best modality to meet the
patients need. Some chronic Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients
breathing drive can actually be suppressed with too much O2 over a period of
time.
(I've got to go, just got paged for an "Alcohol Overdose").
Now I'm
back again. The overdose call went okay. But I'm reminded that masks are
also good for combative, spitting, or TB patients
(Mask the patient and yourself) But on a sad note I found out that the patient
I transported three hours ago with difficulty breathing died of respiratory
arrest in the ER.
She didn't seem that bad, but she had a DNR order
and the family requested she not be intubated. I volunteer for this.
Regarding O2 itself. Almost all O2 manufacturers use the Air Liquefaction method
to make compressed O2 gas. The method is written on the side of the cylinder.
This is why you will see large stand tanks of Liquid Oxygen (LOX)
at the gas vendors' sites. The oxygen that boils off the LOX is piped through
a manifold
system to fill the cylinders usually on a cascade system. So although O2 USP has
the same basic source as industrial gases, it's specified., handled, distributed
and tracked differently. O2 USP has FDA mandated
lot numbers to facilitate product recalls. These lot numbers are tracked all
the way to the patient.
During the day I'm a Home Medical Equipment Technician in the respiratory department
of a major hospital. We jokingly call the hospital room
console the "magic" wall since compressed air, power, suction, O2,
etc. is right there. But the fact that O2 is flowing through a humidifier bottle
doesn't instantly change it to medical O2 as the previous supplier quote asserts.
It just adds humidity, and then really only at flow rates over 3LPM. Water
bottles are mandated in the hospital setting, but not in the home setting.
Oxygen is a natural drying agent. We do however use extra dry grades of O2
USP 99.995% and Nitrogen to calibrate our O2 analyzers.
A note on carbon monoxide poisoning. If the patient presents with the classic
cherry red complexion, they are too far gone for any O2 to do much good. The
carbon monoxide molecule binds something like 600 times more readily to the
hemoglobin in the blood than O2, and has to be forced out by O2 in a hyperbaric
oxygen chamber. Under double atmospheric pressure even the plasma in the blood
carries oxygen. (Which might be one reason our Pre-Flood forefathers could
run so
far and not become weary.) - Steve P., EMT in
Wisconsin
Mr. Rawles:
This is in regard to the oxygen discussion. I don't know the slightest thing
about the sources of oxygen, but as a nurse, I thought I would share a little
bit about administration of oxygen. The following is straight from my Medical-Surgical
Nursing textbook
" Indications for use: ...Oxygen is usually administered to treat hypoxemia
(decreased oxygen levels in blood) caused by respiratory disorders
such as COPD, pulmonary hypertension,
cor pulmonale, pneumonia, atelectasis (lung collapse),
lung cancer, and pulmonary emboli; cardiovascular disorders such as
myocardial
infarction, dysrhythmias, angina pectoris, and cardiogenic shock; central
nervous system disorders such as overdose of opioids, head injury, and sleep
apnea.
.....
-Oxygen toxicity- may result from prolonged exposure to a high level
of oxygen. High levels of oxygen.....can lead to acute respiratory
distress
syndrome....All
levels above 50% and used for longer than 24 hours should be considered
potentially toxic. Levels of 40% and below may be regarded as relatively
nontoxic and
may not result in development of significant oxygen toxicity if exposure
period
is short."
In other words, high levels of oxygen (100% via rebreather/non-rebreather
mask) is ideal for emergency situations, but not more than 24 hours!!
After stabilization
of initial symptoms, it is best to go to a lower oxygen percent, usually
2-3 LPM (for a delivery of 21 to 30 percent oxygen). Of course, these
guidelines are designed for medical professionals who can monitor the PaO2 and SpO2 so
unless you have a pulse
ox[imeter] at home, you're going to be going
with best guess. Watch for breathing difficulties such as trouble breathing,
rapid
breathing,
cough, restlessness.
So, in summary, high oxygen to deal with the immediate emergency, then
switch to low oxygen after stabilization or before 24 hours pass. I am
a recent
graduate, so anybody with more experience please feel free to jump in
with any corrections.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Three Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen »
Odds 'n Sods:
C.S.D. mentioned an interesting product with several survival application: Gloshade.
Note that these reflectors will also work with infrared
chemical light sticks.
o o o
More economic news and commentary, courtesy of SurvivalBlog's Economic Editor: Fannie & Freddie:
Buying Friends in D.C., Fannie & Freddie
Bailout Destined to Fail as US Debt Doubles, Mortgage
Giant Overstated Its Capital Base, Fannie
and Freddie: Just the Beginning of the Derivatives Deleveraging Bailout, Lehman
Bros. Worth a Big FAT Zero?, Fannie
Mae Faces Investor Lawsuit, Berkshire,
in Blow to Banks, Reins in its Deposit Insurer, Wall
Street Trading Gets Zero Value from Lehman, Merrill Owners, WaMu
Removes CEO, and Paulson's
Actions Herald the Financial Collapse of the US Economy.
o o o
The Rude
Awakening's Chris Mayer notes: "Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac,
and the Federal Home Loan Bank System (all government-sponsored enterprises,
or GSEs)
have become giants in the mortgage markets. The Big Three have grown at such
a rapid rate over recent years that at the end of 2000, they collectively held
$2.9 trillion of mortgage debt, which was equivalent to nearly 56 percent of
all US household mortgage debt." That is a mountain of debt, and
the American taxpayers are the inevitable surety for it. Most of it is good debt,
some of
it is so-so debt, and some of it absolute garbage debt held by NINJAs,
The mainstream press has tossed around the figure of $200 billion USD to bail
out
Fannie and
Freddie,
but the truth is that the final price tag is imponderable. It is impossible
to predict, since the credit market and the housing market are both still
in collapse, and we don't yet know where the "bottom" is. As I've
previously mentioned, these bailouts are just part of the collective Mother
of All Bailouts
(MOAB)
that has a good chance of bankrupting America.
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"In matters of style, swim with the current;
In matters of principle, stand like a rock " - Thomas Jefferson
« Letter Re: Should I Get a Bigger Property and a Bigger Mortgage? |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
Hey! I just noticed that we've surpassed 4.5 million unique visits. Thanks for spreading the word about SurvivalBlog!
The high bid in the SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction is now at $550. The auction for a mixed
lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10
cans, (donated by Ready
Made Resources--a $320 value), a
NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U--a $160 value), a Wilson
Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate
Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a
DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books--a $25
value). The auction ends on Monday September 15, 2008. Please e-mail us
your bid.
« Letter Re: Substantially Higher Food Prices at Warehouse Stores |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: Should I Get a Bigger Property and a Bigger Mortgage?
JWR,
I currently live in a crowded subdivision in a moderately nice house that
is worth $240,000. We owe approximately $120,000 on it, and have $120,000 in
equity. Based on
much of what I read here, we were looking for a house with some land, and recently
found one for $370,000 (it's only 2.5 acres, but that's much more
than we have now). If we buy it we will owe $370,000 -120,000 = $250,000).
I currently make around
$120,000 per year, in a job in the
medical field that should not be too hard hit by financial
crises.
So what do I do? Buy the country house and assume a larger mortgage (but
have some space, and a water well, plenty of room for a garden, and less crowding)?
Or do I forego that plan and just stay where I am, even though it's crowded,
because it's cheaper, and I can get it paid off in 2-to-4 years?
The economy has me worried, so this decision has been a difficult one for
me. Your site and its links makes a lot of sense to me, but when I read other
things
online (i.e. the main headlines) it all seems to say that "Everything
will be okay, just give it time, you're in good hands..." When can we
expect the major crisis/crises to hit?
Praying for your wife, thanks for all you do, - Perplexed in the Midwest
JWR Replies: If your job is truly stable, then it might be
safe making that move. Just by itself, having well water is
a huge plus. (I've described numerous hand pump and solar well pump
alternatives in the blog.)
But
with
the economy presently looking the way it is, having that level of debt
should
be
reason
to give you pause.
One alternative to consider is instead of the "halfway measure" of
moving to a house on a bigger lot--but still in a relatively high density area--is
the concept of buying a dedicated retreat with a house on much more acreage
(10+
acres) that is way
out in the country, preferably in one
of my recommended retreat regions.
You
could
simply
tell
your
family
and
friends
that
it is
a "vacation cabin."
My general advice to my consulting clients is to buy their retreat properties
with cash, and leave their primary residences mortgaged. That way, if the economy
totally tanks and you lose your job you can move to your retreat and essentially
abandon your house to the bankers. (The phenomenon they now call "jingle
mail".)
At your retreat you will then only have to worry about paying your property
taxes.
In answer to your other question: I don't give "timing" predictions.
All that I can say with certainty is the the current economic instability is
the worst that I've
see
in
my
lifetime.
So just be
ready.
« Letter Re: Observations on Empty Store Shelves in Louisiana |Main| Letter Re: Should I Get a Bigger Property and a Bigger Mortgage? »
Letter Re: Substantially Higher Food Prices at Warehouse Stores
Hi Jim,
Yesterday I made my monthly or thereabouts pilgrimage to Costco to buy bulk
items for our pantry and other needs. I immediately noticed that prices had
gone up on just about everything. The 40 pound bags of Kirkland brand dog
food (re-labeled Iams brand) had gone up from $19.90 to $23.64 which is about
a 16% increase in
price. The 25 pound bags of Indian long grain rice went for $20.00 to $24.00
- a 20% increase and other items here and there had gone up a dollar or two
or
three.
While Costco continues to be a great value - when compared to other retail
outlets - it too is getting hit with rising commodity prices. Mind you I think
they do a standard 14% profit on stuff - meaning they negotiate a price then
tack on 14% for operating costs and profit, their average markup is about 10%
- that should tell you what's going on.
Anyway, this Fall, if you trawl the Internet at all, is supposed
to be a time of great upheaval - different folks have different pet theories
about what may occur - mine is economic - this might be a good time to stock
up for the winter - it's harvest time anyway - might be good to remind folks
to stock those pantries (while they still can).- Eric
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Substantially Higher Food Prices at Warehouse Stores »
Letter Re: Observations on Empty Store Shelves in Louisiana
Mr. Rawles,
I am an over the road truck driver and happen to be in Louisiana today. I have
been to several stores in the southern part of the state and took note of what
was in short supply. The shelves in the camping section were empty, they were
out of water, generators, gas cans, coolers and frozen dinners. The frozen
dinner thing I didn't get, I figured they'd be short on canned or boxed food.
Just stuff I noticed and thought I'd share. God Bless and I've been praying
for your wife.- Vincent from Portland
JWR Replies: Part of the reason that the camping supplies
were low is that September 1st has traditionally marked the end of the camping
season. Many stores that have
limited shelf space intentionally let these items run out, to make space available
for seasonal items such as Halloween candy.
Your observation on frozen dinners was interesting. Human behavior can often
be irrational. Part of this is based on ignorance and lack
of common
sense.
In
my
estimation,
the
same people that eat frozen dinners on regular basis simply thought "emergency"
and bought far more dinners than usual. They did this without thinking through
the chain of events that are coincident with a major tropical storm, including
power
failures. The scary thing is that there are a lot of truly ignorant people
out there
that
lack
common
sense. In my experience, the same ignorant irrationality displayed in times
of emergency is an "equal opportunity" phenomenon--among people of all socioeconomic
backgrounds.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Observations on Empty Store Shelves in Louisiana »
Odds 'n Sods:
Reader I.T.N. wrote me to ask: "I noticed that [the
base metal value of] a nickel is [down to] now 4.9 cents. (due to a
sharp decline in nickel as of late) Do
you
think
this
is temporary,
or should I begin to spend the milk jugs full of nickels I acquired." I
expect that spot price of nickel will rebound in coming months, as the US Dollar
resumes its decline. With more rapid inflation looking likely, I expect that
a US five cent piece will have a base metal value of 10 cents (twice its
face value) within two years. And in the long run, as
I've predicted previously,
nickels will begin to be worth 3X to 4X their face value. Once that happens,
speculators will begin to acquire $100 (or larger) face value bags, as a speculative
hedge
against inflation. Hang on to those nickels! Someday you'll be very glad that
you
did.
o
o o
Eric sent us a link with some more about making
newspaper logs.
o o o
The
new Katadyn VARIO water filter has a unique design that allows it to
be adjusted, depending on the input water quality. I recommend it. OBTW,
SurvivalBlog readers will get free shipping on a VARIO filter
if they call Ready Made
Resources
at: 1(800) 627-3809.
o o o
Readers PNG, Niall, and Michael
Z. Williamson all mentioned this new product development, perhaps as
a starting point for designing a vehicular Get Out of Dodge kit: The
Shelter Box. PNF notes: "Not available for retail sale, but an interesting
point of comparison."
o o o
SurvivalBlog's Economic Editor Cheryl N. sent us this gem: SF
Wachovia Bank Under Siege By People Facing Foreclosure. File this
under
"A" for Audacity. OBTW, I think that the
leftist ACORN group made an appropriate choice for the
color of their t-shirts. True to form, Cheryl also sent us several pieces of
news and commentary:
US
Deficit Nears $407 Billion, Government
Takes Control of Fannie & Freddie, Bush:
I Wouldn't Call it a Bailout, World
Stocks Soar on US Mortgage Bailout, Fannie/Freddie
Bailout Offer Banks Stock Reprieve, Mexico
Stocks Gain After US Bailout; Peso Slips, Taxpayer's
Might Make Money on Fannie/Freddie Grab, China
Frets at US Risk After Fannie/Freddie Bailout, A
$75 Trillion Fright Fest: 8 Megahorror Debts Chilling The US, Why
the US Moved on Mortgage Giants, Best
Financial Quotes of August 2008, Ten
Worst Insurance Companies (PDF), GMAC
May File For Bankruptcy as Early as Tomorrow, and, Treason
at the US Treasury. This last piece includes this: "I will
tell you openly, the rule of economic law has ended in the USA. Say what you
will, the open seizure of Fannie and Freddie by the US government, without
cause or recourse, and the destruction of private equity is the Rubicon. We
shall not go back from this point. It is kaput."
« Notes from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
“…we have the phenomenon called inflation which is the appearance
of rising prices. I emphasis the word ‘appearance’ because in reality
prices are not rising at all. What we’re seeing is that the value of
the dollar is going down, that’s the real side of the equation. If we
had real money based on gold or silver or anything tangible that couldn’t
just be created out of thin air, it could be based on microphones, that they
couldn’t just create with the stroke of a pen, you would see then that
prices would remain stable over a long period of time.” - G. Edward Griffin,
author of “The Creature from Jekyll Island“
« Letter Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Notes from JWR:
The high bid in the SurvivalBlog
Benefit Auction is now at $550. The auction for a mixed
lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10
cans, (donated by Ready
Made Resources--a $320 value), a
NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U--a $160 value), a Wilson
Tactical
COP tool, (donated by Choate
Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a
DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books--a $25 value).
The
auction ends on September 15, 2008. Please e-mail us
your bid.
Today's posts include an article cross-posted with permission from the new Everyday
Prepper Blog. It is an interesting blog that is worth reading.
« Range Report: Advantage Arms .22 Conversion Kit for the Glock, by Everyday Prepper |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought
Mr Rawles,
Your readers may benefit from the following current links regarding the
electromagnetic pulse (EMP) threat:
Full report of the EMP Commission to the House Armed Services Committee (July
10, 2008)
This
link has a concise summary of key points from the above report:
I also recommend an
interview with the Chairman of the EMP Commission.
The interview includes the following statements that are very important:
Asked just how many Americans would die if Iran were to launch the EMP
attack it appears to be preparing, Graham gave a chilling reply: "You have
to go back into the 1800s to look at the size of population' that
could survive in a nation deprived of mechanized agriculture, transportation,
power, water, and communication.
“I’d have to say that 70 to 90 percent of the population
would not be sustainable after this kind of attack,” he
said. [Emphasis added.]
America would be reduced to a core of around 30 million people — about
the number that existed in the decades after America’s independence
from Great Britain."
270 million deaths! That puts one EMP strike on a par with a full pre-emptive
nuclear strike for the number of deaths inflicted. That's why I took
care of securing food and water before any other preparations. - ALG
« Five Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen |Main| Letter Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought »
Range Report: Advantage Arms .22 Conversion Kit for the Glock, by Everyday Prepper
To start off let me say I'm in no way affiliated Advantage Arms or Glock. I
don't get paid to advertise or test their products and I definitely don't
get paid to write reviews.
I took the Glock out today with the Advantage
Arms conversion kit installed.
I wasn't exactly skeptical of the kit after reading about it online but I was
expecting to have some sort of break in period. I opened the kit up and out
fell an orange piece of paper that instructed me to put some oil on the parts
in the picture. I grabbed the oil they shipped with the kit, put the drops
on the slide where they wanted me to and rubbed the oil with my finger to spread
it around some.
I took a piece of standard 8.5"x11" sheet of printer paper and hung
it up. Next I paced off 10 meters and turned to fire. The magazine seated perfectly
just
like my original Glock magazines. I chambered the first round took aim and
pulled the trigger. Bang! Nice, I thought. There was almost
no recoil and the gun hit pretty close to where I was aiming. I went ahead
and fired a few more
at a slow and controlled speed then I just let the last six or so speed their
way to the target as fast as I could reasonably regain my sight picture. At
the end of those 10, I went up to the piece of paper and measured the spread
of hits and they all fell within a three inch circle, save one. (Though I think
that one was me getting a little trigger happy.)
I finished the day by placing 10 to 20 targets out and running training drills
to help with quicker target acquisition and movement. I fired in the neighborhood
of 120 rounds (give or take five rounds) and never had a jam or malfunction
of any kind.
It wasn't an intense break-in but I was impressed at the quality, feel and
accuracy of the kit.
If Advantage Arms wouldn't have stamped their name on the slide you wouldn't
even know it was a company other than Glock that created the kit. With the
market for these kits (I waited eight weeks while they caught up on back orders)
I'm surprised Glock hasn't jumped on this boat and started creating their own.
I'm not a professional instructor but I think the advantages to this kit are
obvious. While I'm not shooting my standard caliber with its standard recoil
I'm getting much more training time in and it's much cheaper. I can practice
every drill and training exercise I know for five times as long thanks to the
cost savings. If you are worried about the recoil and muscle memory issues
you can always finish your shooting day with your original caliber by removing
the kit (as simple as field stripping the Glock) and putting your original
hardware back in place.- Everyday
Prepper
JWR Adds: Advantage Arms also makes .22 LR conversion kits
for Model 1911 pistols, with an equally good reputation. Both of these conversion
kits are available via mail order to US customers with no FFL paperwork,
since they do not include a pistol frame.
-
Everyday
Prepper.
« Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations |Main| Range Report: Advantage Arms .22 Conversion Kit for the Glock, by Everyday Prepper »
Five Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen
James:
Just a quick note, never ever use oxygen under pressure
near oil! Never use oil on the thread's or fittings! The high pressure will
cause the oil to detonate,similar
to a diesel ignition! If you must,and probably should never need to, use
a teflon tape seal!And if you have an acetylene bottle, let it stand for 24
hours
as
it may have been laid on it's side before using it, separating the acetone
from
the gas. - Dean
Jim
The letter in response to welding oxygen versus medical oxygen was interesting.
Unfortunately [that readers} was wrong on one point. Oil is never used around
oxygen, period. Quoting from a Compressed Gas Association safety alert "Liquid
oxygen containers must be properly cleaned for oxygen service and must be
kept clean and free of grease, oil, or other hydrocarbon materials, which
can combine with oxygen with explosive violence."
The other danger is that the manufacturer does not know what the end use of
the gas will be. If they allow any impurities in it, they could be liable for
contaminating an end product of causing a substandard weld. I can assure you
that virtually all oxygen is safe for human use. - Docliberty
Jim:
If you go to a local oxygen supplier and ask, (and they are being honest) they
will tell you that they fill the welding oxygen, the aviators oxygen and
the medical grade oxygen tanks from the exact same bulk tank, which is to
say, they are all medical grade.
The previous e-mail is correct in that it is important to know that if you
are using a compressor for breathable air, it should be medical grade, preferably
an oil-less compressor.
His/her reasoning is correct but in the oxygen industry, no one I know makes
their own oxygen with compressors on premises any more. Rather, they buy in
bulk from dealers (You can make oxygen yourself with an oxygen concentrator
but then you are back to needing electricity.) and the dealers only make one
grade: medical grade.
The difference is not in the quality of the oxygen but the chain of custody
of the tanks. If you bring an oxygen tank in to get refilled, they will give
you another refilled oxygen tank of the same category (i.e. welding, aviators
or medical) that you gave them but not likely the exact one you brought in.
Here's the issue: If a welding tank is used, you don't know where it's been
and if it has been left open, contaminants may have gotten in at some work
site that used it previously.
If you want to save money or avoid a prescription and use welding oxygen (which
I have personally done) then here's the solution: Buy a new welding tank and
spray paint your name on it. When you get it filled/refilled, demand your personal
tank back. Now you have chain of custody. The oxygen will be medical grade
and since you started with a clean tank there will be no contaminants. Make
sure that you don't tell the refill station why you really want it or they
may not refill it for you. If they ask, have your cover story, like welding...
Also, you will want a regulator that has a range of about 5 to 15 liters per
minute. The oxygen that comes out will need to be controlled so you don't waste
it. Get one that has both liter-per-minute (LPM)
and pressure gauges so you know both how fast you are using it and how much
you have left. For medical
applications,
you
don't need 100% oxygen unless you are dealing with something like smoke inhalation
or carbon monoxide poisoning. Raising the inhaled oxygen content from 21% (normal)
to say, 50% will be a boon for your injured mates and make your limited supply
of this valuable resource last longer. I would use oxygen with lung injuries
or loss of blood, but this is a topic better answered by others.
You will also need to get/make an adaptor with the appropriate male nipple
size to fit on the end of the regulator that will attach to the female end
of the plastic hose that goes to the mask you will be using.
Welding regulators are not set up to go directly to a mask and medical grade
oxygen regulators (which will go right to a mask hose) will not fit on a welding
tank (by design to thwart this very thing).
Masks are inexpensive, but medical supply houses can be sticklers for requiring
a prescription for them. Online purchases rarely require them. You will want
what is called a rebreather
mask. They look the the ones you see fall from
the airplane ceilings in movies.
If you want to give 100% oxygen and not waste any, look at the rebreather bag
attached to the mask. Decrease the LPM of oxygen until you see it deflate with
each inhalation but not all the way. If it stays fully inflated at all times
you are wasting O2, if it goes empty/flat on inhalations, you are dropping
below 100% oxygen and forcing the patient to pull in extra air from outside
the mask which not only decreases the oxygen level but may be difficult for
the injured. If you want to go below 100% oxygen, then make sure that the mask
has valves or ports on it to allow air to be breathed in from outside or loosen
the mask a bit so air can get in from the sides. Test this by making a tight
seal with the mask on your face, plug up the hose and breath in. If you can
do this without effort, you're set up is good. Don't go with nasal cannulas
as they waste 50% of the oxygen and you're not likely to get a refill anytime
soon.SF in Hawaii
Sir:
Despite the dire warnings, there is no difference in oxygen purity or
suitability for breathing among the four “grades.”
From a
major supplier's web site:
‘There are four kinds of oxygen that are merchandised or sold to users;
Aviation, Medical, Welding and Research. There is a ongoing controversy
if there is any
difference between the different types. Oxygen gas is produced from
the boiling off of liquid oxygen. It would appear that the oxygen is therefore
the
same.
Where we obtain oxygen, all the different types of oxygen are supplied
from the same manifold system. Then someone says that medical oxygen has
more moisture in it. That is partly true. The oxygen going to a hospital bed
is
plain
oxygen
that comes from liquid oxygen. At the bed location, there is a unit
on the wall that adds moisture. At this moment we now have medical oxygen. If
the
oxygen is in a pressure vessel or in a manifold system (like inside
a hospital) then it is regular oxygen. The cost of medical or welding oxygen
is normally
much less than the oxygen you get at an airport.
”Also of interest, we have been told by the suppliers of welding oxygen,
the purity level required for welding and cutting purposes is more critical
than for breathing.
”The bottom line about the different types of oxygen is in the insurance
liability of the oxygen supplier. The gas is the same but the insurance
liability is
different.”
All oxygen is generated from oil-free compressors/liquefiers because any oil
(of whatever nature) is highly flammable in 100% oxygen
The bottom line is safety – oxygen makes things burn, even people. Safe
use requires scrupulous attention to cleanliness and detail. Don’t do
it if you don’t know if it is safe or not. - JB, MD
James,
I sent in a letter about using aviation or welding oxygen instead of medical
oxygen and another reader replied, objecting that compressor oil could compromise
the safety of the oxygen. I don’t want to get into a tit-for-tat over
the subject, but I think it’s important to address the reader’s
concerns because the lack of a prescription may keep people from obtaining
oxygen that could later save a life.
Unlike SCUBA air, oxygen is not pumped with a compressor at the point of bottle
filling. It is dispensed from a large tank that has been provided by a supplier
like Air Products or Praxair. Oil, whether petroleum based or vegetable based,
is not present in the compressed oxygen. Oil and grease can burn spontaneously
when exposed to pure oxygen – especially under pressure – so the
suppliers take care to remove such impurities before bottling.
When I said that medical, aviation and welding oxygen are all clean, pure and
dry, I meant exactly that. They come from the same source! ABO, medical and
welding oxygen are all U.S.P. grade oxygen and all are safe to breathe. The
only differences among them are that ABO has had an additional drying step
to prevent ice formation at altitude and there are slight differences in filling
methods (evacuate first or not) and paperwork, all inconsequential when we’re
talking about supplemental oxygen delivered through a mask or cannula.
Private pilots have been using welding oxygen for years with no ill effects.
If welding oxygen somehow scares you then by all means, buy ABO: We know that’s
safe to breathe. My main point was that there is a no-prescription option available.
I just Googled a good resource. This
guy is an
expert on the subject and
perhaps his paper will clarify things and end further debate on this subject.
- Matt S.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Five Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen »
Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations
Jim,
In reference to the post on September 9th concerning the Mossberg Riotgun--as
far as I know the only Mossberg available with the steel safety switch (as
well as steel receiver, steel trigger guard, bayonet lug and heavier/thick
walled
barrel)
is the Mossberg 590A1. For a few dollars more it is, IMHO a better choice.
They can still be had for around $500--steel trigger assemblies et cetera
are available
for upgrading the plastic parts but they are pricey, and the trigger assembly
has to be shipped to an FFL. Once [all of this is] done it may in fact be more
expensive than simply buying the Model 590A1. Best Regards, - Jason in North
Idaho
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations »
Odds 'n Sods:
Universal
flu vaccine tests start in the UK
o o o
We can now chalk up another $200 Billion in the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB).
It's now official: U.S.
Seizes Fannie and Freddie. This confirms my suspicion that there is no
such thing as "too big to bail out", but the dictum of "too
big to fail" is
in full force. I predict that these bailouts will continue in both the public
and private sectors, in a "widening gyre." The bailouts won't
end until the US dollar is destroyed as a currency unit. Get out of
any dollar-denominated investments,
as soon as possible.
o o o
Kevin A. sent us a link that illustrates the pernicious effects of inflation: The
99 Cents Only store chain gets ready to break dollar barrier. Of course I
can remember the late 1960s when the Motel 6 chain raised their rates above
$6
per
night
for
a
single room. Few folks now remember what the "6" in Motel 6 stood
for. But even though that happened when I was a child,
that
dates
me.
As
I've
written
before:Currency
inflation
is little more than robbery in slow motion. You are being robbed of
your buying power. Sadly, because inflation is so gradual in the First World
countries
that
few
people
raise much
of a fuss.
o o o
Ken McC. sent us an article about Veggie
Garden Thefts in England.
o o o
I spotted an article linked over at the Coinflation site that made me chuckle:
Razor
wire stolen by metal
thieves
« Note from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"The game of chicken that foreigners have been playing with their $[US Dollar]
reserves will come to an end. Someone will flinch. The world's banking system
primarily
uses Dollars for its reserves. The other currencies used as reserves, Yen,
Pounds, Euros, etc. also use Dollars as reserves. Countries are using each
other as reserves in a never ending circle of falsely created values. Think
of it this way, it is like two people trying to hold each other up off the
ground at the same time without either touching the ground. There is no backing
or foundation to any currency nor to any banking system worldwide. The last
semblance of support was knocked out from under the system back in August,
1971 when Nixon closed the Gold window. Who will be first to sell Dollars?
Who will
be next? Who will be the first to flinch in this game of chicken? I have no
idea, but when the $[US Dollar] selling starts it will snowball. It will probably
destroy the entire worldwide banking in less than two weeks time once it begins.
Markets
will close for unspecified amounts of time, distribution, trade, travel, will
all cease for unspecified amounts of time. Foodstocks will be wiped out in
a week or less. This will change the world as we know it." - Bill Holter, Fannie
and Freddie
in the Lap of the U.S. Treasury
« Letter Re: The Approach of Tropical Storm Hanna Was a Wake-Up Call |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Note from JWR:
The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of disintegration, as the global credit
collapse continues to take its toll. The once bountiful Lake of Liquidity
has dried up to now resemble the
Owens Valley.
Corporations are screaming for cash, banks
are failing,
the real estate market is in freefall, and
hedge
funds are
desperately clinging to the edge of the abyss. The proposed "solution"--The
Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)-- keeps growing, with no end in sight. It is
actually
part
of the problem
rather than the solution. If you haven't done so already, prepare
yourself
for a long term layoff, loss of equity in your home, and and possible relocation
under duress. A major depression now looks very likely.
« Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: The Approach of Tropical Storm Hanna Was a Wake-Up Call
Sir,
I used to think of myself as "Mr. Preparedness." I read the blogs and
often went shopping for preparedness supplies. Then tropical storm Hanna came
to the Carolina coast and I realized just how ill prepared I really was.
I didn't even have my medicines in order. Also, I had no reserve of cash in small
bills ready to go. Nothing was packed. It took some time to get all my things
together. Had this been a real emergency, I would have been in trouble.
Sir, you mentioned in a previous blog the importance of having that bag already
packed, by the door, and ready to carry to the car. I am now taking this instruction
literally. I spent most of Saturday repacking. Where I focused most of my attention
on was my medicines and toiletries. During evacuations I volunteer for a non-profit
where they provide cooked food, have plenty of water, and have a reliable generator
for the whole building. They even and a shower. I now have packed clothes for
three days including a towel and shower shoes, a spare of all of my toiletries,
spare medicines for a week, and what will soon be a hundred dollars in cash in
small bills, all in two lightweight, easy to carry bags.
Another thing I am going to start doing is fueling up the car to "full" a
little more often. And any other steps to shorten the time before I get "the
call" and I am move out.
Hopefully with these preps I will be better ready the next time a disaster happens.
Thanks - Wes
« Letter Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen |Main| Letter Re: The Approach of Tropical Storm Hanna Was a Wake-Up Call »
Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations
Mr. Rawles,
Thanks for all of the informative posts at SurvivalBlog. Based on your recommendations,
I've put together the following list of firearms (all I currently own is a
38 year old .22 rifle):
- Springfield XD .45 ACP ($568) -- for concealed carry, self defense
- Mossberg
Model 500 Special Purpose Mariner 12 gauge Shotgun 9 Shot ($423) -- for
home defense, hunting
-
Remington Model 700 Varmint Tactical Rifle .308 Winchester, 22 in
with Muzzle Brake, Bolt Action ($643) -- for hunting, possible tactical/precision
use in
TEOTWAWKI scenarios
- Rock
River Arms LAR-8 .308 Caliber Standard A2/A4 Rifle ($1,170) -- for
tactical use in TEOTWAWKI scenarios
I wanted to only have to stock one rifle ammo so I tried to choose a hunting/precision
rifle and an AR rifle that could use the same cartridges.
What is your assessment of the selections I made? I would really appreciate
any suggestions before I make the purchases.
I never served in the military and have no experience with hunting rifles
or ARs,
so after I make the purchases I plan to get some training from a good local
instructor. However, I wanted to get trained on my own firearms
so I
can become familiar with them.
So, I need advice about the following related items so that I make wise
purchases that all work well together since this is an area in which I have
no experience:
1. Sight recommendations for both rifles (I live on 10+ heavily-wooded acres
in the Virginia Blue Ridge mountains)
2. Recommendations for LAR-8 magazines (exactly what to buy, recommended
web sites)
3. Ammo sources/recommendations. I was considering .308 Win (7.62x51mm)
145 grain Prvi Partizan .
I wanted to lay in a large stock of ammo that I could use in either of the
two rifles and didn't know if this was a good selection or not. I don't
want to buy good guns and bad ammo. I need recommendations and sources that
a
newbie can follow without getting ripped off.
4. Ammo recommendations for the handgun and shotgun. There are so many choices,
it's hard to decide. (manufacturer, cartridge and shell recommendations)
5. I would also appreciate a concise list of minimum spare parts / accessories
I should consider for the firearms I purchase and supplier recommendations.
Thanks again for all of your help.- ALG
JWR Replies: That would make an excellent, quite versatile
battery.
IMO, the Remington 700 is a bit over-priced, compared to the Savage Model 10
series, which is functionally identical (every bit as accurate), and costs
about $250 less.
Since you live in a heavily-wooded area, you probably won't need a long-range
rifle, but it might come in handy. Consider it your lowest priority purchase.
In answer to your questions:
1.Since you are in heavily-wooded country,
leave the LAR-8 set up with iron sights. A scope on a battle rifle only makes
sense in open country. However, you might want to get a low-power starlight
scope for night security. I recommend the Trijicon 3-9x40mm Trophy Point
scope for your bolt action. With a tritium-lit
reticle, it will give you better night shooting capability than a traditional
scope. Trijicon scopes
are available from CGW one
of our loyal advertisers.)
2. Buy
either standard military surplus 20 round metric FN-FAL magazines,
or inch pattern L1A1 magazines. The Israeli metric magazines were made on Belgian
(FN) tooling and are some of the best metric magazines. You can get these
from several vendors including WhatACountry.com.
Inch magazines are more scarce, but they are a bit more sturdy than the metric
magazines. If you can find them for under $16 each, then buy inch (L1A1) magazines.
Otherwise buy metric. (Which can be had for as little as $8 each, in quantity.)
You can often find inch magazines on The
FAL Files Marketplace Forum, or on Buddy's
Board.
3. The Prvi ammo has had mixed reviews, possibly because of un-even quality
control, so I don't recommend it. A good factory load that can be used in both
your rifles
is the ubiquitous white box Winchester "USA" 150 grain full metal
jacket 7.62mm NATO. (Although it won't have quite the peak accuracy
of 168 grain match grade, in your bolt action. But that isn't a big issue unless
you are shooting more
than 400 yards.)
For all of your ammo purchases, shop around for the best prices. It is best
to buy each caliber all at once, so that the ammo will come from the same manufacturer's
lot. (for consistent accuracy.) For recommendations on discount ammo vendors,
see
this SurvivalBlog post. Once you've identified the best prices by mail order,do
some comparison pricing at a major gun show. Bring cash so that you don't leave
a paper trail.
4. For the XD-45: Federal HydraShok .45 ACP, 230 grain
For the riotgun: Winchester or Remington #4 Buckshot 12 gauge, and a much smaller
supply of 12 gauge Brenneke Rifled Slugs
5. A spare firing pin, extractor, and ejector for each gun
is a good starting point. OBTW, if your Mossberg comes with a plastic safety
switch, then upgrade
it to a sturdier aftermarket steel switch.
For a source for spare parts for Springfield Armory XD pistols, see
this SurvivalBlog post.
Buy the LAR-8 parts directly from Rock River Arms.
For the LAR-8 rifle, in addition to the aforementioned spare firing pin, extractor,
and ejector, you should also buy:
1- firing pin retaining pin
1- extractor retaining pin
1- ejector retaining pin
1- buffer retaining pin
1 pr.- handguards (the most fragile part of the rifle, in my experience)
To get your XD .45 pistol free with some top-notch training, highly I recommend
that you take advantage of Front
Sight's "Get a Gun" training and gear package offer. It is worth
flying across the country to take Front Sight's Four Day Defensive Handgun
course. The
Memsahib and I have both taken it, and it outstanding.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations »
Letter Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen
Jim,
In one of the letters about acquiring oxygen, the following statement was made
by a SurvivalBlog reader: “Aviation,
medical and welder’s oxygen are all pure, dry and inexpensive. There
is a deadly difference between oxygen made for use by a machine and oxygen
made for use by people. Compressors, like any other machine, must be lubricated.
Air compressors used in a dive shop [or a medical supply company] will use
a natural oil, like peanut oil. Compressors used to inflate a car tire, or
produce
air
and
oxygen
for
welding
and manufacturing processes, generally use a light machine oil. Breathing air
containing trace amounts of machine oil can cause serious health problems or
even death. Leaking oxygen can also cause normal chemical process to become
explosive.
We all need to keep in mind that some things, like oxygen, explosives,
and chemical storage are best left to experts. If someone is dead set on
doing something, then they should spend the time and take the training to become
an expert.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen »
Odds 'n Sods:
Just
as I predicted a more than a year ago, and again more explicitly in
October of 2007, the hedge fund
failure rate is about ready
to turn into an avalanche, in agonizing quarterly installments: Hedge
funds ready to blow as positions liquidated. (A hat tip to Mike McD. for
for finding that
link.)
o o o
For all of you that have been waiting, after many months of shortages, Mountain
House has finally resumed selling their freeze dried foods in #10 (one gallon)
vacuum-packed cans on the civilian market. My advice: Get them while
you can. When
the next disaster comes along, the thin available supply will be quickly
exhausted, and Mountain House
will probably
shut
off the tap. (Just like this last time, so they can divert production to
the more profitable small serving mylar-foil packs, and for government orders.)
The
larger #10
cans
have a 25+ year shelf life are now available
from Ready
Made
Resources and from Safecastle.
(Both are very reputable dealers that have continuously been SurvivalBlog advertisers
since our early days.)
o o o
A helpful reader alerted me to a useful article over at the Section Hiker blog:
The
Limitations
of Water Filters and Water Purification. There are plenty of other useful
articles
there, including Seam
Sealing a Tent or Tarp and Sleep
System Tactics for Staying Warm.
o o o
The latest flurry of economic news and commentary, courtesy of Cheryl N.,
our Economic Editor: UK
Reporting Huge Rise in Food Costs, Take
a Load Off Fannie: Bailout or Nationalization for the Mortgage Giants?, Next
Hot Zone: Home Equity Delinquencies, Merrill
Shares Rated "Sell" By Goldman Sachs, Gold
Demand Soars. Prices Fall. What's Going Wrong?, World
Markets Reel on Recession Fears, Russian
Central Bank Pays $4bn to Prop Up Ruble, and Main
Bank of China In Need of Capital.
o o o
Hurricane Ike blasts Turks and Caicos as Category 4 storm
« Letter Re: West Virginia as a Retreat Locale |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"[John Connor is] 'the leader of the resistance, fighting artificially
intelligent machines determined to annihilate the human race' Did he
strike you that way? Leader of a scrappy band of rebels? Luke Skywalker type?"
- Richard T. Jones as FBI Agent James Ellison in the pilot episode of Terminator:
The Sarah Connor Chronicles. (Script
by Josh Friedman)
« Four Letters Re: Pistol Holster Recommendations for Women |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Letter Re: West Virginia as a Retreat Locale
Sir,
I just wanted to get your thoughts on West Virginia. I live in Huntington which
is at the conjunction of West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio. My family lives
in a valley where we are related to nearly everyone there [by blood or by
marriage]. We have industrial equipment in our business in the valley. Also
a US Corps of Engineers lake covers one end of our road. This leaves just
one roadway in or out. The only other approaches are to cross the heavily
wooded hills. - Doug in West Virginia
JWR: Replies: As I've often written in my blog, you
can't put a price tag on having deep roots in a small rural community.
I strongly recommend that you stay right there, and encourage your relatives,
friends, and neighbors to get squared away, logistically. Also encourage
each family to
buy a couple of rifles in a common caliber, such as .308 Winchester. Even
though you are fairly close to a high population density region, in the
event of a sudden-onset "worst case" you will have the the opportunity
to block that road (perhaps by positioning a piece of heavy equipment as
a mobile road block) and setting up a Neighborhood Watch on Steroids. The
looters will then most likely go elsewhere, in search of easier pickings.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: West Virginia as a Retreat Locale »
Four Letters Re: Pistol Holster Recommendations for Women
Jim,
Bill from Ohio has a number of great observations about carry issues for females.
Among the issues he mentions about hip holsters built for men:
1) Because of a woman's hips they tend to cause the butt of the weapon to dig-in
to a woman's waist
2) Because women have hips, upon which they wear their belt they have less
room to lift the weapon before it impinges into their armpit.
3) Because of factors 1 and 2 the FBI cant further complicates a natural draw
for women.
I'd like to mention a
holster made by Blade-Tech that addresses all three of these issues.
The offset allows for a normal vertical weapon carry by offsetting the distance
from waist to hip. The drop isn't a dramatic drop like a thigh rig -- it just
gives the woman a holster to armpit distance more comparable to what a man
experiences. Finally the cant is fully adjustable to include straight drop,
FBI, and even muzzle forward.
I have no financial relationship (other than being a customer) with Blade Tech.
Just wanted to point out this groundbreaking product. - Keith in the Inland
Northwest
Jim,
As a follow-on to Pistol Holsters for Women, my wife had good luck with
a Galco Lady Gunsite for a full-size 1911. This holster has an angled belt
attachment, holding the gun vertical with the grip away from the body. This
is not an effective concealment rig, as the gun sticks out from the body.
It can get in the way until you get used to it. And of course, they don't
make 'em anymore. - Simple Country Doctor.
Sir,
In the recent letter regarding Holster Recommendations for Women, I found
that I could understand that there is a problem, but was having a hard time
visualizing it. A quick Google turned up an
article on the subject. It does
not offer the exact same solutions to the problem, but it does have diagrams.
As a guy, I found this very useful to understanding the problem. It is probably
a lot safer than harassing the next female police officer I see with endless
questions about her firearm. Somehow I doubt the officer--or my wife--would
appreciate
me pointing/shifting/tugging on the officer's gear and person just to satisfy
my curiosity about this problem. - Jeff
James:
Bill in Ohio brings up nearly everything I was going to write about
yesterday (but killing blackberries and renovating the spring got in the way).
His descriptions of the various holsters and how they fit on women is spot
on and
I doubt I could have described them as well. Everyone needs to read
them very carefully, and learn!
Unfortunately, I learned all that the hard way. For over 30 years, I have carried
a pistol when horseback riding, and I can assure you that as a 5'3" woman,
with hips and breasts, it is no easy thing. And over the years I have come
to the
conclusion that the traditional thigh-tiedown type holster works best. The
cowboys had that one right!
There are a couple of reasons why I use this set up. First off, it's easy and
comfortable, even if you carry a good-sized pistol (in this case, a Dan Wesson
.357 with a 6.5-inch barrel.) The only problem I ever had with it was that
the Pachmayr grip rubbed a hole through the lining of my long riding coat.
So
I covered that place with Cordura.
The second reason is that while I was trying out various ways of packing that
pistol, I had that big pistol at the small of my back. That worked okay, once
I worked out how to get rid of the "bounce" when going faster than
a walk. (I had to wear the belt so tight it was uncomfortable) But that wasn't
the worst part. The worst part was taking a bad fall one day, and landing on
the damn thing! Ouch!
So, I nixed the belt/small of the back idea, and went back to the thigh holster.
I do sometimes carry a smaller pistol (9mm Ruger with a 2-inch barrel) at
the small of my back. I rigged a fanny pack with a synthetic holster, and that
works
well.
I have often wondered if anyone has tried to modify (or if someone already
makes) a holster integrated with one of those neoprene back support belts.
It would seem to me that this would work very well. Something like a pancake
holster sewn onto the belt at the small of the back. It would be comfy, wouldn't
bounce, and if done right shouldn't be too difficult to draw. So, unless someone
comes up with a better idea, I'm sticking with my thigh tie-down.
Oh, something else in regards to packing a weapon when riding. You should always
keep your weapon on your person! If you get dumped (or your horse takes off
while you are taking a leak.) you do not want to be without your defense.
I also carry water, a couple power bars, a small first aid kit, and a Leatherman
in my fanny pack as well.
Many of my riding friends have made fun of me over the years because of all
the stuff I carry with me. I have big saddlebags, stuffed with everything I
might need. But all that teasing sure stops in a big hurry when someone needs
something that I happen to have! ( Like toilet paper, a tampon, a shovel, or
even my gold pan!) I also take a lot of flak for usually riding
the smallest horse with the most gear.
Take care, and my thoughts are with your family. I hope Memsahib is on the
mend! - Mrs. JD
JWR Replies: Like you, I am not an advocate of "small
of back"
(SOB)
holsters. They are particularly risky when riding a bicycle, motorcycle, ATV,
or horse! You are fortunate that you didn't take a harder fall, or you might
have suffered a
spinal injury.
I have
read
accounts
of a
few law
enforcement
officers that had severe injuries because
of SOB holsters. I'm not willing to take that risk.
« Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Four Letters Re: Pistol Holster Recommendations for Women »
Odds 'n Sods:
We saw this one coming: U.S.
Rescue Seen at Hand for Two Mortgage Giants.
The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) continues to grow!
o o o
Season 2 of Terminator:
The Sarah Connor Chronicles (TSCC) begins tomorrow (September 8, 2008).
In agreement with the fans at The
Sarah Connor Society, I consider it is the best quasi-survivalist show
on television. Don't look for many useful preparedness tips, but at least
it
is entertaining
and motivational for those of us with the preparedness mindset. Meanwhile, the fourth feature film in the Terminator movie franchise ("Terminator:
Salvation")--starring Christian Bale and Sam Worthington--is now
in production and is scheduled for release on Memorial Day weekend, 2009. This
new movie is set almost entirely in a post-nuke future, as the human race
battles Skynet and its Terminators. It should be good.
o o o
Eric sent us some more "punch to the gut" economic news: U.S.
House Price Decline Could Be Worse
than Great Depression, Credit
Crunch: The Sequel, Banks:
Dominoes Ready to Fall, Banks
borrow more from Fed; Wall Street takes pass,
and FDIC
chief is facing exceptional
challenges. Somehow, the premise of my novel is starting seems less fictional,
with each passing day.
o o o
Blazer sent us this: Another
Friday, Another Bank Collapse. Nevada is one
of the states suffering the most from the housing market collapse, so this
comes as no surprise.
« Note from JWR: |Main| Odds 'n Sods: »
Jim's Quote of the Day:
“Do all the good you can, by all the means you can, in all the ways
you can, in all the places you can, at all the times you can, to all the people
you can, as long as ever you can.” - John Wesley
« Hurricane Iniki - Some Lessons Learned, by B. |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Note from JWR:
Today we present another entry for Round 18 of the SurvivalBlog
non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:
First Prize: The writer of the best contributed
article in the next 60 days will be awarded two transferable Front
Sight "Gray" Four Day Training Course Certificates. This
is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint
Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day
civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles
Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing
Round 18 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us
your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills
for survival will have an advantage in the judging.
« Letter Re: Airsoft and Paintball Groups for Small Unit Tactics Training? |Main| Note from JWR: »
Hurricane Iniki - Some Lessons Learned, by B.
Hurricane Iniki, which struck the island of Kauai on September 11, 1992, was
the third-most damaging hurricane in U.S. history and provides some valuable
insights into how people react when an entire self-contained community loses
most of their creature comforts. By way of background, Kauai is the fourth
largest island in the Hawaiian Archipelago. It, along with a small, privately-owned
island off its western coast make up the County of Kauai. The population
in 1992 was about 50,000.
On September 11, 1992, Hurricane Iniki made a direct hit on the island with
winds upward of 150 miles per hour. Approximately 70 percent of the buildings
on Kauai were destroyed or damaged. Telecommunications and electricity were
lost and not entirely restored to all areas for six months. Due to early warning
and good Civil Defense planning, there were only a handful of deaths attributed
to the hurricane. The hurricane missed the rest of the state except for brushing
the leeward coast of Oahu.
National Guard troops from other islands were on Kauai eight hours after the
hurricane had passed. Within three days, there were approximately 1,000 National
Guard personnel on the island. The command and control element reported directly
to the mayor of Kauai County and to the Governor. These lessons learned are
from the personal recollections of a member of the command and control element.
Most striking was the number of relief agencies that arrived on-island within
a week to two weeks after the storm. At one point there were 5,000 relief workers
representing 80 different governmental agencies and private organizations supporting
a population of 50,000. The 1:10 ratio of relief workers to residents was one
reason that there was almost no looting or lawlessness in the aftermath of
the storm. This ratio of 1:10 would be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve
in more densely populated areas or disasters that affect larger geographical
regions (as we saw following Hurricane Katrina) . In New Orleans, the military
response was initially focused on rescue or recovery and not on law enforcement.
Military planning is built around “operating systems” i.e. maneuver,
communications, etc. To facilitate planning, the operating systems inherent
in all civilian communities were identified, assessed and tracked to determine
their current status to coordinate support and to help estimate how long before
each system would be brought back on-line.
These systems were:
- Water
- Food
- Communications and electricity
- Sewage treatment and waste disposal
- Traffic control and public safety
- Medical Services
Each of these operating systems presented unique challenges and insights as
they relate to disaster planning.
Water - There are few private wells on the island. The County owns the water
system, which consists of reservoirs in the mountains and some wells that
service the drier parts of the island. The first priority for Civil Defense
was to
install generators at all pumping stations. In most areas water was back
on-line within 3-to-4 days.
Food - MREs, supplied by the Federal government, were available within a
few days after the storm. They became the main source of calories for most
people.
However, the novelty of eating MREs quickly wore off and distributing food
became a high priority. Feeding stations serving a hot lunch were set up
at various locations around the island using military cooks and idle chefs
from
the various resort hotels. However, headcounts changed daily and it was difficult
to ensure that sufficient food was available at each location.
Communications and electricity - In 1992, there were few cellular phones.
Nearly everyone relied on land lines for their telephone service. The hurricane
downed
perhaps a third of telephone/electrical poles on the island. Crews were flown
in from as far away as the east coast and worked months to repair the damage.
Replacement poles were obtained from the mainland and shipped to Kauai. Reportedly,
the base yards in several western states were emptied of poles to support
the recovery operation for a community of 50,000. It should be noted that
Hurricane
Andrew had hit Florida three week before Iniki and the two areas were competing
for some high priority items like telephone poles and the, much prized, blue
plastic tarps used as temporary patches for leaking roofs. There were microwave
relay sites on the island to transmit communications signals from Kauai to
the other islands and, then, worldwide. Some of these sites had only minor
damage and were quickly repaired. Others were destroyed and replacement equipment
was flown in from Oahu or the mainland. Within a week. telephone service
was available to the public via mobile phone trailers that were set up around
the
island. However, telephone service to individual homes, like electricity,
was delayed for up to six months as crews replaced downed poles.
Sewage treatment and waste disposal - Kauai is a mix of public sewer systems
and [private] septic systems. FEMA provided generator support to the Kauai
County sewage treatment facilities and sewage never became a major health issue.
Waste
disposal was more challenging. The hurricane created a lot of destruction
and debris.
County sanitation workers had been furloughed to take care of their families.
The County landfills were initially closed. People began to dump trash along
side the roads. About three weeks after the storm over 1,500 active duty
soldiers were brought to the island with their equipment and went door-to-door
cleaning
up yards and hauling away debris. A new landfill with an expected life of
ten years that had been opened shortly before the storm was completely filled
within
a couple of months.
Traffic control and public safety - It became apparent within the first few
days that the Kauai Police Department was overwhelmed. A decision was made
to free-up police officers whenever feasible to take care of their own families.
Restoration of electricity to key intersection was given high priority so
that traffic signals would be operational. Interestingly, there was little
civilian
traffic for the first week since few businesses were operating and most of
the roads were blocked by downed poles. A military police unit was flown
in to provide traffic control as needed. However, as conditions improved,
people
adapted to driving without traffic lights and were generally courteous to
other drivers when arriving simultaneously at intersections. Few accidents
were reported.
Looting was minimal due to the large presence of the military. The Honolulu
SWAT deployed to Kauai and operated at night in high priority areas such
as near jewelry stores, banks, etc. Two looters were arrested within the
first
week following the storm. In what amounted to lighting justice, they were
charged, tried and convicted, and incarcerated within a week. The case was
widely publicized
and served as a great deterrent. The fact that access to the island was tightly
controlled for the first month also stopped any outsiders from taking advantage
of the situation. The lesson learned is that highly visible military and
police presence coupled with quick convictions served to keep criminal activity
at
a manageable level. However, the local police department, as we saw in the
aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, is probably incapable of maintaining law
and order.
Medical - All medical personal who live on Kauai were affected by the hurricane
and, with the exception of emergency rooms, normal medical support ceased.
State and County Civil Defense had air evacuated most expectant mothers and
dialysis patients to Oahu a few hours before the hurricane struck. Interviews
with doctors from the various relief organizations uncovered a pattern of
medical emergencies. The first few days saw broken bones from falling off
roofs, nail
punctures and similar wounds. After about a week, diabetics and people on
mood altering prescription drugs started to show up at the clinics looking
for medication.
These were followed by people who had ran out of medicine for chronic maladies
like high blood pressure and epilepsy.
Drug addicts presented a special problem in that their regular supply was
disrupted. No illegal drugs were getting on the island because the airfields
and seaports
were controlled by the military. Initially, addicts turned to known drug
dealers and, if necessary, broke into the dealers’ homes looking for
drugs. As a last resort, they started to appear at medical aid stations.
Typically this
occurred 7-10 days after the storm.
Medical challenges provide some of the most relevant lessons learned for
people interested in preparing for a breakdown in local, regional or national
government.
As any infantryman will tell you, the welfare and location of the unit medic
is always on your mind. If you don’t believe you have any skills to
offer a group, you should develop your first aid and medical skills. There
will always
be a need for a “doc” to take care of group members. Research
and build your own medical kit. Talk to emergency room workers and find out
how
they triage incoming patients. Research and memorize the checklists that
first responders use as they assess patient needs and prioritize casualties.
Research
the process doctors use to diagnose patient complaints and symptoms. Medical
equipment and a confident air could be your passport to safety. One of the
most prized items turned out to be generators. Without the immediate influx
of generators from FEMA and the military, life of Kauai after the hurricane
would have been much tougher. Generators pumped water, cleaned sewage, provided
electricity to medical facilities, and refrigerated perishable food that
had been barged and flown to the island. In many instances, relatives of
Kauai resident living on the other islands or the mainland bought generators
and
have
them
shipped to the Kauai. Military and civilian generators arriving at the port
on Kauai were occasionally stolen by enterprising homeowners who simply backed
their trucks up and drove off with a generator that had been off-loaded and
staged for pickup by the legal owner. Apparently some local residents felt
that it was worth the risk to provide refrigeration and lights to their families.
The willingness to risk jail to obtain a generator can likely be traced to
the desire to eat fresh food. MREs quickly lost their savor, especially for
children.
Kauai residents would tell you that the most stressful time came immediately
after the hurricane when all communication was lost and people were restricted
to their immediate neighborhoods by the downed poles and trees. They simply
did not know if they were going to get any help because they did not know
whether the other islands had been hit by the storm. A communication plan
that is well
thought-out ahead of time would be a great psychological boost following
a catastrophe. In addition to a good electronics, something as simple as
a bulletin
board that is updated every few hours would help the cohesiveness and bonding
of the group.
Finally, I need to say something about the way people reacted and adjusted
following the storm. In 1992, people in their 70s and 80s had lived through
the Great Depression and World War II. They proved to be tougher than one
would expect . They usually had a better attitude and often adapted better
to living
without television, electrical light and refrigeration than did many younger
people. Military people found the duty easier than most field training exercises.
Military veterans had often endured tougher times and also quickly adapted.
In general, the more outdoor oriented people were, the easier their transition
and recovery.
Some folks could not cope with the dramatic changes in their routine and
committed suicide. Others left the island; never to return.
