Letter Re: An Apology About Recommending Silver?

Thursday, Oct 16, 2008

JWR::
Your repeated bullish calls on silver have been dead wrong. Do you plan on apologizing to your readers? - Jim G.

Jim:
An apology for what? For making people money? You aren't looking at the big picture if you are only looking at the past few months. If you had invested in silver back in February of 2001 when I went on record and accurately called the bottom of the silver market, then you would have more than doubled your money, even with the recent sag in the market. I made that call within 36 cents of the absolute bottom of the market. I was a few months early, but consider that this was at the tail end of a 20 year-long dreadful bear market in silver. And even if you had bought silver when I first started SurvivalBlog in early September of 2005 (when spot silver was roughly $7 per ounce), then you'd still be substantially ahead. Spot silver is currently just over $10 per ounce, and in recent weeks has been over $13 per ounce. (Since it is a "thin" market, it is always volatile.)

I have never recommended buying precious metals at interim high points. You should buy at interim lows (so-called "dip" weeks.) I'm also an advocate of dollar cost averaging (buying in increments), on successive dip weeks. If you bought all of your silver at an interim high point (such as in March of 2008) then shame on you, not me!

In my estimation, the current dip in the silver market is a pause in what is otherwise still a secular bull market. If you sell your silver now (at a loss), then you'll probably be crying about it in a couple of years, when inflation kicks in, in earnest. In my opinion the current dip is a good buying opportunity.

OBTW, my current recommendation is that after buying barter silver for your family ($1,000 face value per family member in pre-1965 dimes, quarters, or half dollars), that you then invest anything more in gold rather than silver. In the coming depression gold is likely to outperform silver, since gold is perceived as a monetary safe haven, whereas silver is seen as more of an industrial metal. Both will do well versus nearly any dollar-denominated investments, but of the two, gold will likely gain more than silver.


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