Sir,
Let's look at a way to visualize inflation. Let's say you had a $1,000 bill in 1900. At that time, this would be the equivalent of letting the government safeguard [about] 50 ounces of gold for you.
In 1933, Franklin D Roosevelt devalued the dollar, and as a result gold's price rose from $20/ounce to $35/ounce. Equivalently, you could also say the 50 ounces of gold the government held for you now became 28.57 ounces of gold. The government stole 21.43 ounces of gold from you overnight!
In 1971, Richard Nixon ended the Bretton-Woods gold standard for good, and by 1974, gold had risen to $200/ounce. You now had 5 ounces of gold. Thus, between 1971 and 1974, the government stole 16.43 ounces of gold from you.
In 1999, gold bottomed out at $250/ounce. You now had 4 ounces.
With gold nearing $1,000/ounce today, you are down to 1 ounce. Over the last 10 years, the government has stolen roughly 3 ounces of what little gold you have left.
Now instead of paper money, visualize that you did indeed have 50 ounces of gold in your safe in 1900 and that year after year the government broke into your home and stole gold from your safe at this rate. Would you find that acceptable? - CRW
July 2009 Archives
Friday, July 31, 2009
Mr. Rawles,
I would first like you to know your family is in my thoughts and prayers. Thank you and your family for opening our eyes to what is happening all around us and for helping to prepare us for what could happen. To borrow a phrase, "The sleeper has awakened".
On to my topic. I am what may be described as a prepper and after reading many of the countless articles by investors on the accumulation of silver, I began to take your advice as well as their advice and have been purchasing silver whenever the budget allows. With a family with two small boys (2 and 4) and both my wife and I working, it is hard to justify the expense of obtaining silver or gold for that matter. My point is this, I was purchasing Silver Eagles and after reading many posts on SurvivalBlog, I have turned to buying pre-1965 silver coins as "junk silver". The going rate right now on auction web sites is 10 or more times face value of the coins. I cannot afford to buy even a quarter bag of silver at a time let alone the half bag ($500) recommended. I work in commodities and watch most very closely along with the weather and the US dollar, but silver and gold are not our main trading. My concern is that there is such a great demand for silver right now. For this example I will use the 1 oz. Silver Eagle. Recently the price over spot to obtain eagles was over $5 (now it is around $2.50 per Eagle). This means that if the going rate [per ounce] in the spot month (the month closest to the month we are in at the time) is for example $14, then you would have to pay $19 dollars per Silver Eagle. All because of high demand. The U.S. Mint has suspended the production of the proof and the uncirculated Silver Eagle because by law, the mint has to satisfy the demand for the bullion Silver Eagle. The same thing goes for the proof gold coins. I am writing this because I am afraid that most people are waiting for silver to return to the $5 area. With the demand for a hedge against inflation, the demand for silver could continue for some time. My advice is to be prepared as possible and don't count on precious metals to return to previous low levels anytime in the near future. Thank you for all that you do to keep us informed. - Traveller
Jim,
Thanks for your work. I have been a faithful reader for quite a while (and a 10-Cent Challenge subscriber).
After reading LDM in Colorado's post, I had to e-mail and correct a few problems. While I know little of white water rafting, I do know about Personal Flotation Devices (PFDs). I was a Coast Guard Boarding Officer for many years, and I would like to correct some of his terminology. Unfortunately, some of his comments could place someone in danger.
The rating system for PFDs is based on capabilities. Specifically,
Type I: Provides 22 lbs of buoyancy and turns most unconscious victims face up in the water. The old "Mae West" PFDs referred to are not rated PFDs and do not meet the requirements for any type of PFD.
Type II: 15.5 lbs of buoyancy turns some unconscious victims up in the water. These provide less buoyancy than Type Is, but they are less bulky and easier to work in.
Type III: 15.5 lbs of buoyancy but does not make any effort to upright an unconscious victim. They are easier to wear than either type Is or IIs.
Type IV: Throwable PFDs such as life rings and seat cushions.
Type V: These are special purpose PFDs. They are usually either hybrid (meaning some buoyancy that can be augmented by an inflation), or automatically inflating PFDs, or even full-coveralls for working in stormy conditions.
Type Vs have many advantages, but they have many drawbacks. First of all - use the right Type V for the task. A Type V PFD that requires manual inflation (by pulling a cord) is of little value to an unconscious person. Also - any PFD that can be inflated also has a greater incidence of failure. In regards to PFDs simpler is often better.
If it is simply a matter of floating in the water, a Type I provides the most closed-call foam, keeps most victims upright, and keeps them floating high in the water - and they do it very simply. However, white water rafting requires more freedom of movement than what Type Is allow. That is why Type Vs are so popular. Hybrids are the easiest to wear for an extended period or time.
Thanks for allowing me to make this correction. If you have a boat - you should have at least one Type IV, and one Type III (or II or I) for each person. In fact, Type Vs are only permitted on boats for specific circumstances - that's why they are Type Vs. They are designed for water skiing, or work coveralls, or white water rafting. But they are poor substitutes for general PFD needs.
Here's a couple of links that might provide some clarification:
From the Texas Department of of Parks and Wildlife
From the American Association of Pediatrics
From Boating Safety Sidekicks
Regards, - BES in Washington
I found this linked over at the Total Investor blog: After the fall; The collapse in world trade has stopped, but there is no sign of a recovery
Thanks to Rebecca S. for this news link: Weak Treasury Auctions Raise Worries About US Debt Burden
Reader Greg C. suggested this: Adrian Douglas: CFTC Conceals the Real Problem, the Infinite Dollar
Items from The Economatrix:
Weak US 5-Year Debt Auction Raises Worries
Bernanke on the Record (video)
The Hole in Our Universe (The Mogambo Guru)
Commentary by John Browne: Dead Banks Walking
Fed Report Suggests Recession May be Bottoming Out. [In related news: Pigs seen flying over Chicago]
Big Banks Cashing in on Rash of Smaller Bank Failures
Copper Peaking as Inventories Signal Market Top
Detroit Area Jobless Rate Tops 17%
"Grown men do not need leaders." - Edward Abbey
Thursday, July 30, 2009
We have received more than 120 kind e-mails in the past 24 hours, in response to The Memsahib's "Bucket List" post on Wednesday. Thank you so much for your prayers and words of encouragement. This verse sums up the sentiment: "Let the righteous rejoice in the LORD and take refuge in him; let all the upright in heart praise Him!" - Psalm 64:10
We feel tremendously uplifted by your prayers. And for those that have asked: We are not seeking any funds for medical expenses. Instead, please send gifts to our favorite charity: Compassion International.
My brother wrote me recently to ask what we do to prepare for our winters here in the inland Pacific Northwest. He lives in a warmer climate but has been reading about the global cooling underway. For the last two years our area has been colder longer and this last winter we had the most snow in over 100 years.
Remembering that Boy Scout slogan, “Be prepared,” prudent people are already looking ahead for the winter soon to come. Here are my odds and ends to get your thinking processes going:
Dress to Save Your Life
Our heaviest coats are rarely used, unless the temps get below about 20. Important that they shed snow (slick, synthetic outside layer). Whether its actually snowing, or snow falls on you from the trees, or you get snow on you from scraping the car or the roof of your house you're going to get snow on you.
Knit caps keep your head comfortable. If you are working outdoors and wear a really heavy fur Russian-type hat your head will probably sweat. Our winters aren't usually very cold, so something moderate is all we need. I keep my cap, gloves, Gargoyles (folding ear muffs), Yaktrax traction cleats (in a ZipLoc bag), and scarf (rarely used) all tucked away in my heavy coat at all times, and I can add them or put them away in the pockets as needed (your coat needs to have lots of pockets). I look like the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man, but I'm comfortable.
The cap I keep in my heavy coat has a nylon shell and ear flaps that can snap down. And it has a brim, to help keep snow out of my eyes and glasses.
When it's snowing hard you're going to want some kind of eye protection. Ski goggles would be great (all I have are some polycarbonate eye protection glasses). Try to avoid working outdoors while it's snowing, but you can't avoid it all the time. Be sure they're fog-proof (double-layer, vented). I've done without goggles all these years, but they sure would have been nice.
Mostly we layer up: shirt, sweatshirt, windbreaker or shell. My really expensive jacket that Joy bought for me turns out to not be warm, but to be a good outer layer (breathable and all that). Not particularly durable, but otherwise good. (I'm looking to buy a denim insulated work coat this winter to replace mine that has holes.)
Warm socks are a must. I've been buying GI-style socks from the local General store so I have enough for a whole week. They're quite thick. The warm socks I bought last year (not the GI-style) wore holes that I still need to darn. You can't have too many durable, warm socks.
Warm gloves are a must, but they have to be waterproof. I use insulated leather work gloves that I've treated with SnowSeal or something like that (paraffin or seal oil) to protect the leather (I wouldn't use anything that sprays on). The "ski gloves" I have are warm and shed snow, but many of them aren't waterproof and the ones I've tried are definitely not durable. If you're going to ski they're fine. If you're going to work you need leather or an insulated synthetic that is durable.
You'll also want glove liners (so get your gloves big enough). I bought some cheapo military-surplus-type wool liners. They give my gloves extra warmth and I can pull them out of the gloves to help them dry quicker. I have some really warm mittens, but I can't work in them. Putting liners in my regular insulated work gloves works better.
Waterproof, high boots are essential. I used cheapo $9 rubber boots most of the winter. They're tall, taller than the snow usually, and absolutely waterproof. And they have really aggressive treads. I don't think breathable fabric is all that important. With each step the boots breathe up your pant leg... I also don't do a lot of walking in them, but working around the homestead, around fences and barbed wire, and turkey manure the inexpensive boots work great.
Snow bibs (look like farmer's bib overalls) are cheap. You wear them under your coat. They're not so much warm as they are slick and the snow doesn't stick. They're not waterproof, so you CAN get them wet (which is bad) if you're not careful. But the snow falls off and keeps your legs dry, and they're an extra layer on your legs. I think I wore mine once or twice last year. I can easily tolerate cooler legs when my core is warm.
I don't have leggings or whatever they're called. I just pull my pants over the tops of the boots, or pull the snow bib legs over my boots. YakTrax are essential. Falls are devastating.
Working in cold weather, unless you keep changing clothes as your chores change, you're probably going to get at least a little sweaty. Some chores make you hot, some don't. Unless you're going to be going in and out (which would not be energy efficient) to continuously change clothes, then at some point your clothes are going to get wet and / or sweaty. You must have a plan for hanging the clothes over or near some heat source to dry them. Having a second set of socks and gloves and pants is important in case you have to go outside before everything's dry.
You have to plan your excursions outside. Take all the tools you need, etc. so you're not going in and out. You also have to have a plan to time yourself outside. You'll be warm but wet and not realize it. An hour of chores outside is probably plenty, then come in to hydrate and dry out. Plan to hydrate while you're outdoors too if you're working hard (don't eat the snow - it lowers your core temp).
With thick socks the rubber boots are comfortable, not very heavy, absolutely waterproof, have great tread, durable, and quick to get on and off when I do have to go in and out of the house (very nice). I have a pair of very heavy winter boots, rated to below zero. But they're heavy and hard to lace on. I've got them if I ever need to climb Mount Everest...
We keep the boots in a little plastic "boot tray" near the door so that the melting snow doesn't get everywhere and make a mess.
The rubber boots are also essential in the spring melt-off when there's four inches of slush everywhere... Regular snow boots with tiny holes that doesn't matter in snow will spring leaks in slush...
I Sno Seal
You should be able to find wool socks and glove liners at many Internet shops. I reserve my wool gear for the really cold weather.
I also have a full heavy rain suit (in case we ever get monsoon-type weather - which happened once! - and I have to care for the livestock). You could put on some fairly warm clothes and the rain suit over it and be great in the snow. The biggest issue with snow is not having it melt on you and get you wet. And the rain suit would be an extra insulating layer.
I have a set of YakTrax that I leave on my rubber boots (extra large), and a set I keep in my jacket I wear to the office if the ground gets treacherous. The deluxe Yaktrax have a strap over the top that definitely helps keep them on in heavy snow. You can improvise a strap like that with baling wire or cord or velcro. You probably need more than one strap over the top. A second strap that goes from the heel up and around the top of the foot will help in the back.
Have the Right Tools Ready
You need to have a snow shovel for the house and one for each vehicle. I'd go by the local feed store and buy a 50 pound sack of poultry grit and use that instead of the stupid sand. The weight will help with traction and if you have to sprinkle it under your tires or on your driveway it will grip better than sand. Price isn't too bad.
I strongly recommend having a hoe with a shortened handle in each vehicle. Vehicles get in trouble two ways - slide-offs and high-centering. You can't effectively dig the snow out from under your vehicle with a snow shovel. You have to lay on your side and dig it out with the hoe. It works and it doesn't take too long.
If you slide off into a ditch you're just going to need a tow. If you have a winch you might be able to winch yourself out.
If you slide off and you have a good tow strap (not a chain) you might be able to get pulled out. The strap is springy and allows the towing vehicle to get a little inertia going before the strap pulls tight. They may not be able to get enough traction to pull you out, but that bit of inertia might be enough to do the job. I would never try a questionable tow unless I did my best to dig the car out first. Even a tow truck might have trouble pulling a vehicle out of a snow-filled ditch unless the car was dug out first. Compacted snow is very hard and heavy.
You really never know when a really bad snowstorm is going to hit. The weather service is terrible about being accurate, especially regards timing. We've been warned that bad weather was coming and it is often early or late by 8 or more hours. We pack a winter survival bag with extra coats, a blanket, food, water, and a small catalytic heater and extra propane canisters. We carry water in a mylar bag (old wine bag) packed in a box so it can expand and contract as it freezes and thaws.
We've never had to use chains, but we have a set of cable chains if we need them. Only one of our cars is fully equipped and we stop using the other car unless the roads are clear.
I've seen traction strips that look like plastic trellis that you put under your tires to get traction. I fabbed up something like that and it helped once or twice when I got stuck.
With your hill you might consider parking somewhere else nearby. Unless you can keep your driveway ice-free you might not like sliding down the driveway and into the street uncontrollably. Have a good supply of de-ice in advance (which was hard to find around here when all the trouble started). Some are better than others.
We use a lot of plain unscented clay cat litter on the steps and sidewalk. It works very well. Better than de-ice for concrete and wood. And cheap!
We buy windshield wiper fluid that also contains de-ice. It works really well unless the temps are very low. You should keep a spray bottle of it in the house and take it outside to spray any vehicle windows that got snow or ice on them.
If you think there could be lots of snow then you might want to consider the rating of your home's roof. I'm guessing that no homes in your area can take much snow (why should they?). Getting on the roof to shovel it off is bloody dangerous. It's not worth dying for, or being crippled for. If you've got the money, buy a Snow Razor from MinnSnowta ($150) - they'll last forever.
We mainly use plastic snow shovels with straight handles. Snow gets to be very heavy and the fancy curved handles fail sooner (I think). The plastic blade is strong enough for most uses. We use a little plastic snow shovel (probably made for kids) to shovel the stairs because a regular shovel is too big.
Get a plastic sled so you can drag the snow away from your driveway and house. Many years we started with a snow pile by the driveway, but by the end of winter it was huge and in the way! Just drag it a little distance, and it won't be in your way or the snowplow's way if you have to get your driveway plowed.
We also have steel square tip shovels (2 sizes) to dig up the ice that inevitably forms in places when the snow gets too deep. We also use the mattock to break up ice on the ground (you should have a mattock anyway, good for lots of things). Many years we've had 2 - 4" of hard ice that forms under the snow from cycles of melting and snowing...
|We keep a big coffee can of cat litter and a can of deice in the house by the front door. Many days we couldn't safely get out of the house or get to the garage to spread the cat litter. We also have some car lock de-icer sprays, but have only needed them once or twice in 21 years.
If the forecast is for heavy snow, you can park your car at the end of your driveway. You'll only need to shovel maybe 6 feet of driveway, instead of 40 or 50 (or 250 in our case). It's also a good way to avoid having to pay to have your driveway plowed (it's $50 for a long driveway like ours, every time). You'll want to have your plastic sled on hand so that you can sled your groceries up to the house or the garbage out to the road.
Parking your vehicle in your garage has a lot of benefits when it comes to not having to scrape windows (oh, yea, have more than one good ice scraper...). But in heavy snow your wheel wells will be full of compacted snow (the whole undercarriage, grill, bumpers, etc., actually). When you drive into your garage you'll be bringing maybe 3 - 5 gallons of water into the garage. The warm engine then slowly warms the room and much of the ice melts. Each time you drive in.
Five gallons maybe you can handle, but over and over and you start to get a moisture problem in the garage. We've actually had it rain inside - the moisture condensed on the Tyvek lining of the roof and rained out on everything - not just where the car was, but all over the inside of the garage.
Our "solution" is to only drive one car in the winter when the weather's really bad and to use a floor squeegee to push the water and slush back outside. (While we're on the subject, one winter the ice formed a dam on both sides of the driveway in front of the garage and the water level of melting snow actually started to come in the garage. I had to take the mattock and dig a trench - in the cold and snow after work - down one side of the garage to drain the water away! Try that with a regular steel shovel!)
Shovel the snow early and often. Better 10 minutes several times a day than to try to dig out from an 8 inch accumulation.
Snow blowers around here are generally too small for our use with a 250'-long driveway. And they take gas and oil to run. A capable snow blower is expensive.
When we've had a bunch of snow, with more on the way, I often drive up and down the driveway compacting it. I drive to the left, to the right, and in the center to make as wide of a compacted area as possible (taking maybe 10 minutes). Our front wheel drive cars can drive in snow up to the undercarriage. You can drive on compacted snow, but if you've got snow that is deeper than your undercarriage it tends to build up in front of your vehicle while you're trying to get to the road and will probably high-center you. You can shovel / snow blow it out of the way or compact it down so you can drive on it. The next time your driveway's plowed they'll get most of the ice that forms from the compacting so it won't get too deep.
If you start to slide on ice let off the brake. You won't be able to slow yourself down anyway, and with the front wheels turning you might actually have a bit of steering control and be able to miss the really expensive / dangerous things on the road. (Hit something cheap.) Turns in the road are bad. Shaded areas are bad. The key is to slow down. That's all you usually need to do. (I've slide nearly a mile down a hill. I've spun around in the middle of our road and not left the roadway. I've slid to a stop just inches from the car ahead of me. I've also lost control and crossed the oncoming lanes and onto the opposite shoulder. Going slow is the secret to avoiding these events.)
Everything Else
Needless to say we have over a month’s supply of food and water stored. If we’re snowed in, or have the sniffles (or worse) we can ride it out at home. And of course, as Christians we pray early and often. We want to be in a position to help others, but we also realize it’s prudent to prepare for “such a time as this.”
Be Prepared. Trust God. We can do both. - Peter H.
GG spotted this piece by Axel Merk: Credit Crunch Part Deux
Is the mainstream media catching a clue? Surviving the 'End of Civilization' 2050; Six rules for investing in the worse-case scenario. (thanks to Craig M. for the link.)
Curtis sent us a link to a great video segment by Marty Weiss.
Items from The Economatrix:
Dollar Falls to 2009 Low as Economic View Reduces Safety Demand
China Warns US on Budget Deficit
Unemployment in June: Map of the Worst Hit Cities
Housing Recovery: Sell Now or Your Capital Will Forever Be Trapped
Fiscal Drops in the Bucket Deficit (The Mogambo Guru)
Fed Chair Takes Hit on Own Investments
"Cash For Clunkers" Bashed
Motorcycle Crashes Rise as Riders Seek Cheaper Rides
Ebola in Pigs New Health Threat
o o o
New on the market: Stay Alert caffeine chewing gum. (Obviously, this is something only for short-term emergency situations--like staying awake during the second half of a non-stop 800 -mile G.O.O.D. evacuation drive.)
o o o
North Korea Warns of "Unimaginably Deadly Blows" to US
o o o
Greg W. mentioned the soon-to-be-released Enertia electric motorcycle. $12,000 is a lot of money for a cycle with such limited range and speed. But it might be appropriate for short trips for someone that already has a large photovoltaic power system.
"The necessity of procuring good intelligence is apparent and need not be further urged." - General George Washington, then commanding the Continental Army, 26 July 1777
Police can now legally fire at "fleeing cars" in Chicago. (Thanks to F.G. for the link.)
o o o
From Heather H.: Maine’s wild blueberry crop imperiled by leaf spot fungus. Heather's comment: "First the wheat fungus, then the potato blight, and now the blueberries are dying. What's next?"
o o o
Hard times drive more Michiganders to fish for food. (Thanks to "Survival Mama" for the link.)
o o o
PD sent this: IDF Vets Train U.S. Jews to Protect Their Communities PD's comment on the trigger fondling and errant muzzle direction: "It looks like they need to start out with a safety lesson!"
o o o
From reader GG: [Canada's] Gun registry hasn't 'saved a single life'
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
I was recently contacted by a producer for The History Channel who is making a documentary about survivalism. It is an unusual project that will include a subtext docudrama about a family that is fleeing Los Angeles in the midst of a megapandemic. He will be interviewing survivalists in Los Angeles and New York in mid-August. If you live in or near those cities and are willing to do an on-camera interview, please contact Nick Leader, via e-mail.
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Last Day! Ready Made Resources is continuing their special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don't miss out on this sale, as they don't happen very often. Stock up! The sale ends at midnight eastern time tonight. (Wednesday, July 29th.)
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Today's first post is from my wife. Many thanks for your prayers.
I am in a very unusual situation. I'm in my mid-40s, but I'm dying. My doctors have told me that I have less than two months to live. So I have been working on my "bucket list." One of the items therein is finding a new wife for my husband, to marry after I go to be with the Lord. I have always been a cautious shopper, carefully analyzing and deliberating the pros and cons of each acquisition, whether it is a horse, or a piece of land, or just a pair of boots. Finding a new wife for Jim will be a challenge for me.
First, about Jim:
- 48 years old, normal weight, and very healthy, but prematurely gray.
- Has a hard-charging "Type A" personality. He doesn't know how to relax.
- Very punctual and neat, except for his desk.
- Modest, loyal, and extremely devoted. (He has spent the past year by my bedside.)
- Generous and tithes regularly.
- A worrier. (SurvivalBlog is the professional manifestation of his worrying.)
- Hates big cities, and will never move back to one.
- Willing to dig lots of holes for my plants, but he is not much of a gardener.
- Loves giving gifts but he dislikes spending money.
- Has enough survival gear to equip a reinforced squad.
My replacement must meet these qualifications:
- Be a devout, church-going Christian, preferably with Reformed/Calvinist doctrine. This is the first and foremost consideration. (No exceptions.)
- Be healthy and of normal body weight. (Jim could not bear to lose another wife at a young age.)
- Willing to put up with Jim's eccentricities including his emphasis on OPSEC.
- Willing to assume my responsibility of caring for three teenagers. (They are godly homeschooled kids, and a great joy to us.)
- Willing to live at the Rawles Ranch in a remote, yet very beautiful area. (Nearly a two hour drive to any decent shopping.)
- Willing to live in a true "four season" climate, with up to six months of snow.
- Enjoy the outdoors (canoeing, hunting, fishing, berry picking, gardening, et cetera.)
- Have a good sense of humor.
- Not want to have babies. (Jim can no longer have children.)
- No interest in television. (We don't own a television, but we do have high speed Internet service.)
- Be willing to visit your relatives only once or twice a year.
- Not squeamish around slaughtering and butchering of livestock and wild game.
- Hard working.
- Thrifty. (Although Jim makes a very good living, shopaholics need not apply.)
- Circumspect.
- Loyal.
Things about you that do not matter:
- Your age. You can be anywhere between 30 and 55 years old.
- Your appearance. You can be ugly, maimed, deformed, scarred, or disfigured. (But you must be normal body weight and healthy!)
- Your race.
- Your height. (As long as you are least 5'2".)
- Your taste in clothes, music, or art. (Jim has eclectic tastes, but prefers women that dress modestly in public.)
- You have been previously married or already have children (as long as they have been raised to be respectful and well-mannered.)
Things that would be preferable, but not crucial:
- You are omnivorous. (We eat a lot of elk, venison, and trout.)
- You are fairly athletic and enjoy vigorous exercise.
- You have a good traditional skill set (Cooking, sewing, gardening, et cetera.)
- A background in a medical science (Doctor, nurse, veterinarian, EMT, Paramedic, etc.)
- Your family lives west of the Rockies.
- You like dogs and cats.
- You would enjoy raising livestock.
- You can play the piano.
- You have acting experience.
- You are handy with tools.
- You are artistic and/or have a good eye for nature photography.
- You enjoy traveling.
If you believe that you meet the aforementioned qualifications and are sincerely seeking a life-long commitment with a loving husband, then consider this prayerfully, and then e-mail me your brief biography. I'll be doing the vetting before you can talk with Jim. Needless, to say, I'm going to be very selective.
Sincerely, - The Memsahib
Hi James,
Thank you for the work that you do. In reference to this quote:
" As a side note: There is a video commonly shown to police academy students that depicts a real situation where a man armed with a knife attacked an armed police officer from across a room (10-to-15 feet). I have heard that merely viewing that video (and communicating the fact of said viewing) to a prosecutor can result in the dismissal of charges related to shooting a person who is threatening you with a knife. (While you're armed with a gun). YMMV. Research carefully."
I believe your contributor is referencing a video [on the Tueller Drill] by Massad Ayoob. It has been awhile, but I believe the key point was about justification for lethal force when there is a perceived imbalance of power (a knife at a distance versus a firearm). Basically, by going through the drill, the people in his class new for a fact that a knife was a lethal threat at a range of 21 feet and hence there were justified in their minds by taking the shot. If you should find yourself in a similar circumstance this would be an interest topic to cover with your attorney... not with the police or prosecutor. - Scrod
Hi Jim,
I’ve been out playing in the Wasatch mountains of Utah and found your e-mail when I got back. You mentioned several people had asked about my note on the significance of carrying large paper clips in your backpack. Ah, where have all the Boy Scouts gone?
If you think of all the things you can do or make out of a 5-inch long piece of bailing wire you will get your mind going in the right direction. Some of the uses for a heavy duty paper clip in a wilderness survival situation are; make a fishing hook, make a fish or small animal spear using a stick, make a crude small animal trap or snare, make a needle for sewing, mini soldering iron, pick locks, make a compass, use to start a fire, cauterize wounds, hang meat/fish over a fire, fix various objects, fasten items, etc.
If you go on the web and Google something like, wilderness survival paper clips, you will find page after page of sites listing the various uses, sites listing paper clips in their survival kits, or sites willing to sell you survival kits with paper clips. There is a lot of information out there to weed through. For those interested, I’ve included a few hyperlinks to sites that go into detail on some of the more practical uses such as making a compass or starting a fire instead of writing the directions out here.
Paper clips are something most everyone has around and they are lightweight, small, and have a ton of uses. I can’t count the times I’ve used them over the years for a wide variety of reasons. They’re pretty close on the list to a small spool of duct tape.
One of the other things I was going to mention pertains to using trash bags for waterproofing items such as backpacks or anything else you don’t want to get wet. Trash compactor bags work much much better. They are made of a heavier gauge plastic and are square at the bottom. They fit perfectly in most backpacks or day packs because they are rectangular. They work really well for storing or protecting most anything that has dimension. Also, great for an emergency rain poncho because people are not flat like normal trash bags but have a tendency to have some width to them. Trash compactor bags are not to be confused with Contractor trash bags.
Hopefully this answers some of the questions or at least directs people to where they can find more detailed information. The links are listed below. Take care, - Sharon
Reader David H. reminded me that the text of Murray Rothbard's book The Case Against the Fed is available free, online.
From Kevin A.: Why Monday's housing numbers are meaningless
Nolan S. mentioned this piece on a fundamental change in the gold-to-silver price ratio: DIVORCE!
The new ‘retirement’ plan: Just keep working. (Thanks to DD for the link.)
Also from DD: Bank of America to cut 10% of branches
From GG: China takes baby step to reduce dependence on dollar
Items from The Economatrix:
Biden: "Long Way" to Recovery
Bernanke: About 25 Financial Firms are Systemically Vital
Lender Failures Reach 64, Most Since 1992
British Economy Crashing at Record Pace
Italian Economy to Shrink 5.2% in 2009
46% More Likely to Buy a Ford Because it Didn't Get a Bailout
Dealers Aim to Clear Lots with Cash for Clunkers Program
Baby Boomers Curb Free-Spending Habits. New focus on frugality has many companies scrambling
Bernanke: This May Be Worse than Great Depression
British Economic Collapse Rivals Great Depression
More than 1,000 Banks May Fail in Coming Years
$20 Per Gallon
Lost Value of Equities in US and State Government Pensions
When Debtors Decide to Default
Luis S. mentioned a great site with web feeds of police and fire department frequencies from all over the US. This is a useful adjunct to having a scanner, especially when choosing GOOD routes that are outside your scanner's range. It might also be useful as a tool for evaluating retreat locales before you move.
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Can you spell: "Agent Provocateur"? (No, not the lingerie company.)
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Reader DD sent this sign of the times: Los Angeles Airport parking lot is home away from home for airline workers
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Do any SurvivalBlog readers know of a source for small diameter (unleaded fuel) spouts that will fit Scepter Military Fuel Cans (MFCs)? (All that I've seen advertised are large-diameter spouts, for diesel or the old style for leaded gas filler necks.) Thanks!
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New Texas Law: Police can use force to compel hurricane evacuation. (Thanks to Greg C. for the link.)
"It's difficult to think anything but pleasant thoughts while eating a homegrown tomato." - Lewis Grizzard
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
I frequently stress the importance of well-balanced preparedness in my writings. All too often, I've seen people that go to extremes, to the point that these extremes actually detract from the ability to survive a disaster situation. These range from the "all the gear that I'll need to survive is in my backpack" mentality to the "a truckload of this or that" fixation. But genuine preparedness lies in comprehensive planning, strict budgeting, and moderation. Blowing your entire preparedness budget on just one category of gear is detrimental to your overall preparedness.
Another common mistake that I see among my consulting clients is an over-emphasis on either very old technologies or on the "latest and greatest" technologies. In the real world, preparedness necessitates having a bit of both. At the Rawles Ranch we have both 19th century technology (like hand-powered tools) and a few of the latest technologies like passive IR intrusion detection (Dakota Alerts), photovoltaics, and electronic night vision. My approach is to pick and choose the most appropriate technologies that I can maintain by myself, but to always have backups in the form of less exotic or earlier, albeit less-efficient technologies. For example, my main shortwave receiver is a Sony ICF-SW7600GR. But in the event of EMP, I also a have a pair of very inexpensive Kaito shortwaves
Here is my approach to preparedness gear, in a nutshell
- Redundancy, squared. I jokingly call my basement Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR)
- Buy durable gear. Think of it as investing for your children and grandchildren. And keep in mind that there'll be no more "quick trips to the hardware store" after TSHTF.
- Vigilantly watch Craigslist, Freecycle, classified ads, and eBay for gear at bargain prices.
- Strive for balanced preparedness that "covers all bases"--all scenarios.
- Flexibility and Adaptability (Examples: shop to match a 12 VDC standard for most small electronics, truly multi-purpose equipment, multi-ball hitches, NATO slave cable connectors for 24 VDC vehicles, Anderson Power Pole connectors for small electronics--again, 12 VDC)
- Retain the ability to revert to older, more labor-intensive technology.
- Fuel flexibility (For example: Flex fuel vehicles (FFVs), Tri-fuel generators
, and biodiesel compatible vehicles)
- Purchase high-quality used (but not abused) gear, preferably when bargains can be found
- If in doubt, then buy mil-spec.
- If in doubt, then buy the larger size and the heavier thickness.
- If in doubt, then buy two. (Our motto: "Two is one and one is none.")
- Buy systematically, and only as your budget allows. (Avoid debt!)
- Invest your sweat equity. Not only will you save money, but you also will learn more valuable skills.
- Train with what you have, and learn from the experts. Tools without training are almost useless.
- Learn to maintain and repair your gear. (Always buy spare parts and full service manuals!)
- Buy guns in common calibers
- Buy with long service life in mind (such as low self-discharge NiMH rechargeable batteries.)
- Store extra for charity and barter
- Grow your own and buy the tooling to make your own--don't just store things.
- Rust is the enemy, and lubrication
and spot painting
are your allies.
- Avoid being an "early adopter" of new technology--or you'll pay more and get lower reliability.
- Select all of your gear with your local climate conditions in mind.
- Recognize that there are no "style" points in survival. Don't worry about appearances--concentrate on practicality and durability.
- As my old friend "Doug Carlton" is fond of saying: "Just cut to size, file to fit,, and paint to match."
- Don't skimp on tools. Buy quality tools (such as Snap-on and Craftsman brands), but buy them used, to save money.
- Skills beat gadgets and practicality beats style.
- Use group standardization for weapons and electronics. Strive for commonality of magazines, accessories and spare parts
- Gear up to raise livestock. It is an investment that breeds.
- Build your fences bull strong and sheep tight.
- Tools without the appropriate safety gear (like safety goggles, helmets, and chainsaw chaps
) are just accidents waiting for a place to happen.
- Whenever you have the option, buy things in flat, earth tone colors
- Plan ahead for things breaking or wearing out.
- Always have a Plan B and a Plan C
If you are serious about preparedness, then I recommend that you take a similar approach.
James,
I've gotta chime in here. Jeff R.'s submission is great but I think he overlooked one very important point. He said:
"If you are involved in a shooting and it appears there may be an official inquiry, forget flashy, emotional phrases that uninformed people throw around, such as “shoot-to-kill,” “shoot-to-wound,” or “shoot-to” anything. Facts, not flash, will win the day. You didn’t shoot to do anything other than to stop the action and end the danger to yourself and your family. The old shoot-to-kill question is a trap that has been used on police officers in court; “if you shot to kill, why could you not shoot-to-wound?” Anybody familiar with defense shooting knows that close quarters shootings involve little more than shoving the gun at the target and firing. Likewise, nobody involved in a shooting has the luxury of time to ponder nonsense questions like the above."
I would submit that not only should you "forget flashy, emotional phrases" - you should say nothing.. Anything other than "Officer, my life was in jeopardy, I would like to speak to an attorney now." is a perilous mistake. Even if you are totally justified, completely innocent of wrongdoing., say nothing. Not even innocent-seeming justifications or alibis. Nothing. "I would like to speak to an attorney now". Anything else and you are in serious peril.
I am not an attorney. Here you can see a law professor explain why.
As a side note: There is a video commonly shown to police academy students that depicts a real situation where a man armed with a knife attacked an armed police officer from across a room (10-to-15 feet). I have heard that merely viewing that video (and communicating the fact of said viewing) to a prosecutor can result in the dismissal of charges related to shooting a person who is threatening you with a knife. (While you're armed with a gun). YMMV. Research carefully. - Matt R.
Eric S. spotted this: Five Firms Hold 80% of Derivatives Risk, Fitch Report Finds
A reader from South Carolina sent this: The weak dollar and the economy
Items from The Economatrix:
Michael Panzner: Wall Street's Gains Equal Main Street's Losses? "In sum, while a growing number of investors seem to believe that Main Street is on the mend, many of corporate America's senior executives -- who are normally not prone towards pessimistic outlooks -- are maintaining that they see no real evidence of a revival where it counts -- on the ground. In fact, amid an almost single-minded focus on reported earnings results, many of which only appear favorable in comparison to the low-ball, company managed estimates that clueless analysts have come up with, Wall Street hasn't been paying much attention to just how dicey things look at the top of the income statement."
Dollar Dying, Gold Gleaming
UK Oil Giants' Profits Plunge $10 Billion
Facing Retirement: 70 is the new 65
Guaranty Bank Warns it's on Verge of Failure
Lawmakers: California Budget Crisis Resolved, For Now
Small Business Loan Defaults Expected to Rise
School Budgets Dip, Class Sizes Grow
Weiss: The Great Global Gap
Atlas Vacant - The Commercial Real Estate Bust: Gearing up for a $3 Trillion Headache. Increase in Vacancy Rates and Higher Defaults
Negative Folly (The Mogambo Guru)
Treasuries Fall as US Begins Auction, New Home Sales Rise
Call for Rapid Recovery is Bubble All its Own
Reader "Korea" mentioned this company in Oklahoma as a source for military surplus ammo cans and landing mat sections: Calumet Industries. I've heard from several readers that they've been having trouble finding ammo cans at reasonable prices. Simple logic dictates that the millions of Americans presently buying ammunition in large quantity will need a place to store it, and hence the ammo can shortage. If you know of other ammo can suppliers with reasonable prices, please send me their URLs, and I'll post them. Thanks!
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Libertarians seek a place in the New Hampshire sun. Oh, and speaking of liberty, HPD sent a link to an article posted over at the JPFO site by Timothy Baldwin: The American Revolution Revisited.
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Steve G. saw a Slashdot piece about EMP linked at Instapundit: Electronic Armageddon?
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DD sent us this item: Drought turning Texas as dry as toast. But elsewhere: 3,000 Low Temp Records Set This July!
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Tamara had a link to a video clip at The Breda Fallacy of an air head addressing the Santa Cruz City Council. Wow! What stunning logic. She might a have a future as a career politician in Sacramento, or even Washington, D.C. Tamara's comment: "Visualize her in a voting booth. (Cry a little.)"
"Behold, a people shall come from the north, and a great nation, and many kings shall be raised up from the coasts of the earth. They shall hold the bow and the lance: they [are] cruel, and will not shew mercy: their voice shall roar like the sea, and they shall ride upon horses, [every one] put in array, like a man to the battle, against thee, O daughter of Babylon." - Jeremiah 50: 41-42 (KJV)
Monday, July 27, 2009
Just two days left! Ready Made Resources is continuing their special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don't miss out on this sale, as they don't happen very often. Stock up! The sale ends Wednesday, July 29th.
I was pleased to see this post over at the Mountain Steps blog: A letter to our county commissioner about emergency preparation for hyperinflation. It is commendable to make such inquiries, but it is essential to ask detailed questions. Especially when contacting elected officials, vague, general questions tend to elicit vague, general answers, and hence most likely no action will be taken.
It is also essential that you do some research first, to direct your inquiry letter or phone call to the right individuals. Flunkies don't create or change policy, they just implement it. You need to direct your letter to someone that has the authority to make policy, and has the budget to implement it. (In some cases, this will mean separate contacts to whomever controls the purse strings.)
I recommend that you ask detailed questions, such as:
Do you have a back-up generator, and how many days of fuel do you keep on hand? What is your contingency plan to implement before that fuel runs out?
Can you continue to operate without grid power? If not, then what contingency plans do you have?
Is the city's water supply gravity fed, from end to end? If not, then what contingency plans have been put in place to provide water to utility customers, in the event of a grid power interruption longer than 48 hours?
And ask:
Are electrically-pumped filters used, or traditional gravity filters?
Then, if you discover that the water system is mostly via gravity, but it uses electric pumps only for pressurized filtration, then ask: If electrically-pumped filters are used, then has a disaster contingency waiver been established with the USEPA, (for turbidity and other standards), to allow bypassing of filters in the event of a grid-down emergency situation?
Similarly detailed letters or phone inquiries should be made to your local irrigation district, your fire department, power utility, phone companies (both cellular and land line), refinery, hospital, kidney dialysis clinic, coal mine, National Guard, grocery store, et cetera.
Do not expect the grid to magically stay up and running, Assume the worst case, and plan accordingly.
OBTW, one key word to search for when estimating the resiliency of your community's infrastructure is co-generation. Find out where the co-gen plants are, and their capacity!
Hello Mr. Rawles;
I just found your blog site and have not read all the postings yet. One thing I have not seen is a go bag for the dog. If one has a purse mutt, a carrier with supplies is one thing but if one has a real dog that is a part of the pack (family) then a go bag for the dog is a good idea. We have a German Sheppard and she can carry her own food and water in a doggy backpack. Doggy backpacks can be found at places like Campmor.com. [JWR Adds: Dog Backpacks
are also available from Amazon.com, and several other online vendors.] I would train the dog to use it before the need arises. It probably is a good idea to get a collapsible dog travel bowl
Thank you for helping to make people aware. Best Regards, - Glennis
JWR Replies: Those were great suggestions. In my opinion, the other items that you should put in your dog's pack is a pair of Tick Tweezers, and a sealed bottle of a strong flea and chigger repellant
Hello Jim and Family,
As a former whitewater canoeing instructor (yeah, I know - but I passed my psych evaluation) I found the recent post on traveling on water to be both enjoyable and thought provoking. I would like to add, however, that all (personal flotation devices (PFDs) are not alike. It seems that in all parts of the country, commercial rafters are in business and (for the most part) guiding people safely down some mild whitewater experiences. Occasionally, and also tragically, deaths occur when people are thrown from a raft in perfectly survivable conditions. WHY they didn't survive has to do with a multitude of factors, clearly, but there is just no excuse for the sorry excuses for PFDs these commercial rafters use. The rules and regs are not at all onerous to deal with, and any old type II life vest that is coast-guard approved is what most people put on. These vests are considered "flat water" vests for conscious swimmers. The only kind of vest I would use in whitewater would be a or Type V, depending on the severity of the whitewater I might use a type III. Type I's do not have a collar system, they are just "mae west" type vests that are patterned after the old WWII vests our servicemen wore. You can slip out of a type I too easily IMO, and it does not have an active system to keep a swimmer's head out of the water.
The question should be asked? "What makes whitewater - white?" I don't believe that people think much on this question, and they really should...
The answer? Air.
When water falls over obstacles at speed, turbulence causes air to mix with the water, it essentially decreases the ability of a person to float, you can't really swim in whitewater either, because you're arms and legs are just beating at air. Very turbid water is nearly impossible to float in. Even wearing a type V doesn't guarantee that your head will be above water. A typical type II vest has 15.5 lbs of float for the adult version, and 11lbs for a child version. A type I has a minimum of 22 lbs of float, but they are not well-liked by people who have to paddle. Specs have changed over the years, and type I's used to have sealed pockets around kapok - get a hole in the pocket and you lose flotation for that pocket. They are also bulky and cumbersome to paddle a boat in. Do not use a type I if you can help it, if you must use a type I - than make sure they use closed-cell foam inserts rather than sealed compartments. Type Vs start at Type I specs for flotation, 22lb, but generally range in the 28lb rating area. The other important difference is that the type Vs almost always have flotation collars - meant to help keep the head shielded from rocks and keep it erect during possible unconscious conditions. In Colorado we've recently had a spate of deaths of fully-capable adults who had been thrown from a commercial whitewater raft. I checked, and most of what they had were type II and type III PFDs (same rating, almost, as the type II).
The whitewater rafting companies going through the Grand Canyon all use type Vs. I've seen some guides in the canyon wear a type III, and a type V over it.
If you're going to use water to egress, and you might have to traverse whitewater - you really need to consider what PFD you select. They are not equal in quality or versatility, and if you live by the "always bring a gun to a gunfight" mentality, whether or not you are going to wear a PFD that will actually save your life should be an easy question. You will never, ever regret having quality gear when you need it - when your 12 year old child is engulfed by a river while wearing the bargain basement PFD you "found" at a surplus store - you'll appreciate any time you spend in selecting a good vest. - LDM in Colorado
JWR Replies: Thanks for that reminder. As your children grow older, be sure to get progressively larger life vests for them. You can even get a K-9 PFD Life Jacket.
From GG: Regional banks on the brink
Also from GG: UK GDP continues large declines
Another Seven US Bank Closures Announced on Friday: Regulators Shut Six Georgia Banks, One in New York State
Items from The Economatrix:
Fiction Upon Fiction (The Mogambo Guru)
Experts Float Debt Bubble Fears
Hollywood Celebs Filing for Bankruptcy
E-Trade Reports Quarterly Net Loss of $143 Million Discount-brokerage company has lost 94% of its market value in past two years
Asian Stocks Rise [Friday] on US Home Sales, South Korean Growth
Consumer Sentiment Falls on Jobs Concerns
Stock Trading Slowdown Steepest in Two Decades; Rally May Fizzle
UK Economy Shrank 0.8% in 2Q, More than Double than Expected
Global Depression Triggering the Evolution and Revolution of Central Banking
Bernanke Sidesteps Economic Crisis Issues
Buffett Hits $2 Billion Jackpot with Goldman
Gold Will Hit $1,250
I just heard about Alpha Innovations, a great source for very sturdy, reasonably priced, American-made Yawaras, Koppo Sticks, Kubatons,"Letter Openers", and other other high density injection-molded goodies. Their "Stylus Kubaton" variant is ideal for anyone that carries a touchscreen PDA or an iPhone. (Consult your local laws before ordering!) OBTW, they also make some amazing custom products and sell training DVDs.
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Vietnam Veteran Keeps Vow, Eats 40-Year-Old (C-ration) Pound Cake. BTW, The Memsahib and I ate the last of my old C-Rations around 1987.Those had been packed in the late 1970s, and they seemed quite old (but still palatable) at the time, but I couldn't imagine eating those another 22 years later!
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Jeff in Ohio mentioned a new ham radio net on Thursday nights at 9 pm Eastern time on the 20 meter band, at around 14.320 MHz. Jeff notes: "The net is sponsored by the American Preppers Network. This may be a good way for some people to find like minded individuals in their local area. The only downside is that upon giving your call sign anyone listening can look up your location on QRZ.com unless your retreat is not co-located with your mailing address."
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Craig W. mentioned a thread about "Discreet" hockey bags for carrying carbines.
"Three groups spend other people's money: children, thieves, politicians. All three need supervision." - Dick Armey
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Often looking into the past can help solve new problems. If roads become unusable for travel, or vehicles are not available we must start looking at new solutions, or old ones in this case. Paved roads as we have today are a fairly recent innovation. Even 100 years ago very few were paved and often subject to damage by rains, floods, and environmental conditions. Winding cattle trails, wagon tracks, and horse paths were the main travelways on land. And today's roads can easily become dangerous and impassable during bad weather, earthquakes, and mudslides. But there is an alternative for almost everyone. Water! The continental US has numerous large rivers that for the most part are very navigable. There are also large chains of lakes that offer great travel options. If you look at any map of the US you will see larger cities and towns close to rivers and lakes. This is because [in the 19th Century] traveling by water often made more sense then by land, and trade routes and communities grew up around these waterways.
Traveling by water offers many challenges. The first being what type of craft to use. There are many commercially available sizes and styles and each is well suited for many applications. But lets look at it in terms of power. There are engine powered and non engined powered. Basically powerboats have some type of engine to provide propulsion. They can be gas, diesel, or electric motor powered. These can include shaftdrive, inboard/outboard, outboard, and jet drive, and typically are the faster and more powerful of all types. Sailboats and pedalboats are examples of non engine powered, and of course canoes, rafts, and kayaks are examples of human powered. Each type has advantages and drawbacks. Engines need fuel and maintenance but provide power for speed and moving heavier loads. A larger boat with no gas to run the motor is useless. A canoe can be used in shallower water, but usually can't hold more than a few hundred pounds of gear with two adults in it. Sailboats need more room to be effective in tracking the wind and maneuvering, but don't need fuel to move. So as with any piece of equipment assessing your needs will be crucial to picking the right boat.
In a situation where overland travel is limited, looking at waterways is the best alternative. You need to identify what travel routes may be in your area and start compiling maps and information on them. Water always flows downhill and depending on what side of the mountains you are on will greatly influence the direction they will flow. For example in my area of the southeast we have the bottom portion of the Appalachian mountain range. And there are rivers that flow from the center of the state all the way to the Atlantic Ocean and there are others that begin a few miles away that head all the way to the Mississippi River. The East Coast has the Intercoastal Waterway that is actually an inland series of interconnecting flows that you can travel North and South over the majority of the coastal US without getting into the open ocean. The Great Lakes have always been used as trade routes throughout the midwest and many areas of the lakes are still used to transport goods. Having the maps and information on dams, locks, and other travel hazards will be invaluable.
Once you have identified your waterways you can begin to decide on your craft. With so many variables I am not able to give you more than my own choices and reasoning in hopes it will give you a start in figuring out your own solution. I currently have 6 options for water craft. With a healthy interest in sport fishing I tend to always have several boats available to me. I first researched my local waterways. I have access and experience on the Chatahoochee River, and the Coosa River, as well as the Savannah River and Ogeechee River here in Georgia. I also have a boat stored on the coast for offshore fishing on the few weekends I'm able to get away. I have been fortunate to have canoed in a major body of water in almost every state from Maine to Florida on the east coast so there are many other rivers, lakes, and creeks that I am familiar with but the main ones for travel for me are decided by proximity, size, direction of travel, and ease of navigation. For example the Ocoee River in Tennessee is a superb white water river and is a blast to play around in a kayak, however it is limited in travel due to difficulty and the dams that control water flow. So for distance travel or to navigate it with a skiff full of supplies would be impossible. You want to find wider slower moving rivers as these will allow better navigation with a loaded down boat. For these rivers a wide bodied canoe is invaluable and can carry quite a bit of supplies. Also on many rivers there are long wide stretches that have very slow moving water and can actually be paddled upstream with little effort and can provide travel in both directions. I have two kayaks, two canoes, one john boat, and one 21' offshore center console fishing boat. The offshore boat has a full compliment of safety gear and survival supplies. The reason for this is because getting in trouble 60 miles offshore is not the place to wonder if you packed some extra water or food, or is that pair of pliers in the tool kit or not. So that boat is fully equipped at all times. However with 250 miles of travel to get to it I spent more time preparing gear for the other boats. The kayaks are good for quick maneuvering or scouting ahead of a larger boat. My two oldest kids are getting better paddling the canoes and the three younger ones can ride in the john boat with the supplies. I have added two electric motors with 50# thrust and 1 deep cycle marine battery for each one. These have been fitted to fit the canoes and the john boat. I have added a solar recharger for the batteries. And have an additional jump pack for emergency power. The john boat is 18' and is a shallow draft with fitted oars for maneuvering down river. This set up of "scout" kayaks, "transport" canoes, and a "storage" john boat, will in my opinion maximize my travel options while still being able to transport my large family with less effort than overland travel. I am only a few miles from a river large enough for me to make it all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. And I believe if I need to travel out of my area for any reason that the remoteness of water travel will increase my travel ability and decrease my risk of exposure to outside influences.
I would like to add here that many states require a boater safety course before you operate a powered boat in local waters. This would be a great training class to take for everyone. Also for Coastal residents the coast guard has some great publications on navigation and using your boat safely. They also publish charts and booklets explaining what the markers, buoys, and lights mean for Navigational Aids placed throughout our coastal areas. If you do live on the coast and plan to use your boat as part of an emergency plan I would strongly suggest you sign up for and take the Coast Guard's Captain's class. This is commonly referred to as a "six pack license" and allows you to carry up to six passengers as captain on a for hire vessel, such as fishing charter boat captains have. The information you will learn in this class is incredibly important for anyone attempting to navigate in coastal waters. And as always obeying the rules and regulations on boating is crucial, and safety can never be underestimated on the water. You should have a PFD (personal flotation device), or life jacket for every person especially children. These need to fit properly and be in good repair for them to work so the first thing to do is to get a good Coast Guard Approved Life Jacket, the second is to wear it at all times out on the water.
The following are key elements of a plan to travel on water:
1. Examine routes and gather maps and information on the entire route including, hazards such as dams, power plants, locks, and spillways. These may be impassable and a plan to portage (go around) these obstacles will need to be made. Pay attention to seasonal changes such as high water in Spring or frozen areas in winter.
2. Never run rapids you have not scouted first. Stop before you get to them and walk down stream to check for the safest route.
3. Always have proper safety gear on each craft before beginning your trip. Including Life jackets, rescue ropes, and throwable flotation devices.
4. Use appropriate boat style for the type of water you are traveling on.
5. Practice using your watercraft to have some familiarity with your local waterways, and equipment.
6. Pre-pack your equipment for the most stable weight distribution without overloading.
With some minor adjustments your overland escape plan can be modified to include waterway travel and give you one more option in staying safe and prepared. As with any good plan it should include the variables but also allow for adaptability. So get out on a boat, enjoy the scenery, and use that time to get some practice in before you may really need it.
Hello,
That was a good submission by Jeff R.! Here are some things I thought I would mention from personal experience:
I work as a Pharmacist in Philadelphia and was involved in an attempted armed robbery, six years ago. Two armed men came in the store early that morning attempting to obtain narcotics. I was able to see them early enough that they didn't get the drop on me. (Situational awareness!) The man in front had a .44 Magnum revolver with the hammer cocked. He announced "Get the f*** down, this is a stickup!" as he walked at me. I fatally shot him and wounded the second man (although he fled and was never found). The entire incident happened in about 5-7 seconds and before there was any time to get afraid or ponder the options. My arms were tingling for two hours after though, from adrenaline! It was an instant self-preservation reaction. This is why you must square up any moral concerns well beforehand as there will be no time during. Know what you will do!
I had mentally rehearsed scenarios like it happening and would practice the draw stroke which I think made everything so smooth. My technique wasn't the best as I shot one-handed and kind of point shot where I knew he was. He was about seven feet away when he was hit. The first shot hit him in the right eye, and the second somewhere else in the face, according to police). He literally died in the fetal position still holding the cocked gun. The entire thing seems surreal, like a quiet dream when I remember it even though I emptied the magazine. I think that mental preparation like Jeff mentioned is so important (in any training) to things working in your favor.
I had to sit in homicide department for about four hours total until our lawyer showed up and we gave a statement. I think it is important to have one there with you before you make any statements. You will be shook up, like Jeff said, and will benefit from having someone there with you. He advised me not to say anything to the media. Even though the police were praising me and saying it was obvious self defense I was concerned about the reaction from his family, et cetera. Supposedly they knew he was into "bad things".
I had to call regularly to find out information on the incident as nobody ever got back to me. I later found out that I had been exonerated. You think they would have let me know! It took me two years to get my gun back! They kept saying that it had to go through forensics for some reason. I know Philly isn't the most efficient place in the world and has lots of other crimes to deal with but what the heck? I couldn't believe it!
Jeff's advice is important to follow on dealing with the aftermath as you ponder how things could have gone differently and the consequences if they had. James, thanks for all you do! Be aware out there everyone! - S. in Philly
GG recommend this three-part YouTube video: Hyperinflation Nation
Greg C. spotted this item from New Zealand: $190,000 withdrawn in $20 bills; Irate bank customer hits back
From GG: Poll: Americans lacking in emergency funds
Items from The Economatrix:
Retail Industry Braces for Shopping Center Collapse
California Hotels Flood the Market
Biden, Oh Biden! (The Mogambo Guru)
Toyota Said to Plan to Shut California Car Plant on First Ever Closure
Gary North: The Coming Great Government Debt Default
TARP Watchdogs Criticize Treasury Over Transparency
Minimum Wage Hike Could Threaten Low Earners' Jobs
CalPERS, Teachers' Retirement Loses Almost $100 Billion
Guaranty's Collapse May Hit Stakes of Icahn, Rowling "Guaranty Financial Group Inc., the Texas bank spun off in 2007 by a forest products company, may become the biggest lender to collapse this year, wiping out investments by billionaire Carl Icahn’s funds and Omni Hotels owner Robert Rowling. Guaranty can’t raise capital demanded by regulators and will probably fail, according to a filing yesterday with the Securities and Exchange Commission....A failure would be the largest among consumer lenders since September, when regulators seized the banking unit of Washington Mutual Inc."
EMB spotted this article which features two of our advertisers: Six Safe, Strong—and Chic—Bomb Shelters You Can Buy Now
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Pro-Gun Amendment Rejected. This legislation had so much common sense that it was no surprise that Chuck Schumer hated it.
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[Urban] Survival School
Because I have called, and ye refused; I have stretched out my hand, and no man regarded;
But ye have set at nought all my counsel, and would none of my reproof:
I also will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when your fear cometh;
When your fear cometh as desolation, and your destruction cometh as a whirlwind; when distress and anguish cometh upon you.
Then shall they call upon me, but I will not answer; they shall seek me early, but they shall not find me:
For that they hated knowledge, and did not choose the fear of the LORD:
They would none of my counsel: they despised all my reproof.
Therefore shall they eat of the fruit of their own way, and be filled with their own devices.
For the turning away of the simple shall slay them, and the prosperity of fools shall destroy them.
But whoso hearkeneth unto me shall dwell safely, and shall be quiet from fear of evil. - Proverbs 1:24-33 (KJV)
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Some of you are probably asking yourself what this has to with Survivalism. Pain is our brain's way of letting us know that something is not right. You touch a hot stove and it warns you to pull away. With any number of things that can set off TEOTWAWKI, The result will be the same. Traumatic, stressful, pick your favorite term; it’s all the same. Increased stress levels in the body create tension. We have all heard the term ”your psychology affects your physiology”, nothing could be more true. I think it is an excellent idea to go through practice drills in as many what if scenarios as you can fathom. One of the things I have not seen accounted for however is the effect of stress and pain has on our daily routines .The moment the hammer drops we will probably get by on adrenaline for a short period. The first part is preparing our bodies for the culture shock that will probably happen overnight. I would say the majority of the people reading this have an ample food supply, guns, ammo maybe even a detailed plan on what to do. But how many of us have a way to reduce stress? If you do not have one during ”peaceful” times, how much less ready will your mind and body be prepped when the situation demands it of you? I am not here to tell you what method you should choose. One of mine is prayer. Whatever yours are, cultivate them now as you do everything else. This leads me to the title of the article.
Unless you are Amish or are like the few readers of SurvivalBlog that are already modern versions of Grizzly Adams, the overnight transition will be more mental and physical than you have been accustomed to. Mentally I have already explained the mind-body connection..What can we do in the physical? An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Here it comes: ”exercise”. This is much more than dropping a few here and there for the yearly family photo. A stronger, fitter body will not only reduce stress levels but will be able to handle a greater physiological demand. A stronger body will put you in a better position to defend yourself. When the last tick of the clock hits it’s point, you are where you are, and that’s it! That said, even the strongest bodies get sore and get injured. I have heard horror stories at the gym (where us city folk exercise). A man dropped some weights on his finger. The trainer urged him to stick his finger in the hot tub. That was a big mistake. This is an easy way to remember what to do INJURY = COLD (the area is already inflamed, heat will expand tissues more) SORENESS = HOT (heat soothes sore muscles, not injuries!) There are different ways to approach it. Without an MRI, you cannot know just how serious but you can start reducing the impact. After an injury, the area should be iced (if possible) 15 minutes on and 15 minutes off. This should be done [during waking hours] for several days. Anymore than 15-20 minutes of direct contact will have the same effect as heat, counterproductive. All that work on the Ponderosa will not only have you singing shoulda coulda woulda’s on being better prepared, it will also leave every muscle in your body begging for mercy. I have done massage on some of the strongest men around (the “Power Team”) and I assure you that pain is universal. Here is a non-medicinal pain survival equipment list for you:
- Two tennis balls
- A huge encyclopedia
- A low-back chair(like you used to have in school)
- Any good simple book on acupressure or trigger points
- A rolled-up towel
I could make a list a mile long but these five will do wonders for you.
Using tennis balls: this is good, no, great for the back. Laying on your back on the ground, place one tennis ball on either side of your spine (not on the spine). Start with the cervical, then move down to thoracic, then lumbar. Typically 10 minutes in each area should do the trick. Another way to stretch that lower back out is lying once again on your back. Place the large book or encyclopedia under your sacrum for 10 to 15 minutes. This technique uses your own body weight to release the muscles they surround, thereby relaxing them. Have you ever cooked a chicken? When you pull the skin off that milky white layer over the muscle is the fascia, it holds the muscle in place. Changing the angle of your lower back does wonders. The next thing is the low back chair. I like chairs that go about mid back. Sitting in the chair in the normal way, reach behind the chair grabbing the top of the legs (you can go lower as you stretch). Do not bounce! Pull for a few seconds at a time while leaning backwards over the chair edge, creating tension on your arms but stretching your back. At this point you probably wondering what in the world a rolled up towel can do for you. Hopefully by then you have already memorized all of your survival books , but chances are if you have not, you will be doing some serious reading. Sitting in a higher back chair or even a wall, place a rolled up towel east to west underneath your shoulder blades. This will help keep you in alignment and take pressure off your upper and middle back that develops from slouching as we read.
If these things seem too simple, well then I can assure you that they work. "Simple" is the key when your resources are limited. The American Indians used to have the children of the tribe walk on their backs for those with ailing backs, so I think you can adapt to these simple cures. Why not just pop an aspirin? Well, first off all if you have access to pain meds, they will be very valuable and the less you have to rely on them the better off you will be. Keep in mind that no pill will cure an injury or eliminate the cause of the pain. It will merely cover it up for awhile. Why not just treat the cause of the problem instead of the symptom? We have little control over the circumstances that come our way. We can either be more prepared or less prepared. Learn how to take care of your body if you want it to take care of you.
James;
I need your advice. I am worried about power failures, and even EMP while I'm sleeping. This could take out my security system, and leave my family vulnerable. Is there any sort of device that'll alert me if the power goes out? Thanks, - Nolan S.
JWR Replies: There are fairly inexpensive commercially-made plug-in power failure alarms available via mail order for under $15. (Or under $20 each at larger home improvement stores.) I recommend buying one for each bedroom, and one for your generator house. (The 86 dB alarm is not loud enough to be heard from far away, but having a light on for you at your generator house on a dark, snowy night is a very welcome sight!) Needless to say, these are a must for sleep apnea patients that use a CPAP machine, or for anyone else that uses other 120 VAC medical devices for chronic health issues. These alarms work fine for houses with grid power, or for houses with backup generators. (The alarm will trip before an auto-start backup generator kicks in.) If you have a grid-tied alternative energy system, you would of course need to plug one of these into an outlet that is exclusively grid-powered. If you live off-grid, you won't have any way of knowing, but then again, if your level of concern for such an event will probably be minimal.
If your specific concern is a power failure in the event of EMP, then you could always wire up a battery-powered traditional buzzer with a "normally closed" relay. (When the grid power is disconnected, the relay closes, and energizes the DC buzzer circuit.) That is 1920s-era technology that would be EMP proof.
Frequent content contributor Kevin A recommended this piece by Doug Casey: Street Fighting Man. It has some observations that sound a lot like what you've read in SurvivalBlog, such as: "I’ve long believed that this depression would not only be much different but much worse than the unpleasantness of the ’30s and ’40s. In those days, only a few people were involved in the financial markets; now almost anyone with any assets at all is a player. In those days, there were no credit cards, consumer debts, or student loans; now those things are ubiquitous. It’s true that nobody will lose any money because of bank failures this time around; instead, everybody is going to suffer a loss from a collapse of the U.S. dollar, which is much worse. In the ’30s and ’40s, the U.S. population was still largely rural in character, including people living in the cities. The average American was just off the farm and had a lot of practical skills as well as traditional values. Now he has skills mainly at paper shuffling or in highly specialized technologies, and it doesn’t seem to me that the values of hard work, self-reliance, honesty, prudence, and the rest of the Boy Scout virtues are as common as they once were."
From The Daily Bell: Bernanke dragged into stimulus debate
Marty Weiss on the enormous derivatives threat: The Great Lie of 2009
Items from The Economatrix:
Seven Franchises that Went Bankrupt
Banking's Two-Class System of Winners and Losers
World Prepares to Dump the Dollar
Abandoned US Dollar and Paradigm Shift "The foreign creditors continue to protect their core US$-denominated reserves, while clearly undermining the US$ on the margin, as alternatives are chosen."
Graduates Move Back Home
Americans Now Pariahs of Foreign Banks
Out of House and Home
The Doctrine of Preemptive Bailouts and the Biggest Bailout you Haven’t Heard About: The U.S. Treasury Plan C and the $3.5 Trillion You Will be Paying
Simon J. recommended this Gizmag article: SCORE Project seeks funding to roll out Bio-Mass Stove in developing countries
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El Niño Threatens Food Shortages
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ATF To Montana: You Will Respect Our Authority! And here's a related article: Washington drops hammer on state gun plan
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John S. spotted this useful blog: Couponing in Critical Times
"Without a rifle you are nothing, worthless; you are waiting for death, any minute, any second." - Aron Bielski, as quoted in the book Defiance:
The Bielski Partisans
Friday, July 24, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
It doesn’t have to be TEOTWAWKI for a person to be faced with the choice of shoot or don’t shoot. Everyday in the United States a police officer somewhere makes that choice (sometimes they choose “don’t shoot”). All too often, average Joe or Jane Citizen must make that choice. Hopefully dear reader, that day will never come for you, but if it does, here are a few things to help you not hesitate when necessity requires that you pull the trigger, and to help you live with the consequences.
Decide now that you will shoot another person if it becomes necessary. Pondering the morality, worrying about the legal ramifications, hoping you’re making the right decision--these are all tasks that should be resolved now, before the time comes to shoot. There is no way around the cold, hard fact that launching a copper-jacketed ball of lead into another person’s torso will cause serious bodily injury or death. Not to be harsh, but that is the whole point of the exercise. Resolve these issues now:
What are the legal justifications where I live for taking a human life? More importantly, what reasons are not legally justified?
Self-defense, defense of others, and defense of property are generally accepted to be valid reasons for using deadly force (use caution in some jurisdictions with the defense of property). In Texas, most law enforcement agencies won’t blink when a citizen kills an intruder or an attacker. The Texas Penal Code even has an affirmative defense for the use of deadly force to prevent the consequences of theft after nightfall. Know the laws concerning the use of deadly force where you live. Don’t just know about them--know them. If you are unclear about the meaning of the laws, ask your district attorney’s office--or better yet--your state’s Attorney General’s office. Often the AG of a state will have already published opinions on these issues. Asking a police officer may seem like a good idea, but they have different justifications for using deadly force, and citing one officer’s opinion is not likely to dissuade prosecution. For example, a police officer can appeal to the court decision of Tennessee vs. Garner after shooting a fleeing felon, but you probably will not be able to use that justification with success.
Another benefit of consulting the district attorney’s office with your questions about deadly force is that it is the district attorney’s office that decides who gets prosecuted and who does not. A shooting that occurs with reasonable legal justification that is further supported by the legal opinions of the district attorney’s office would be an unlikely candidate for prosecution (YMMV). Here again, know you local laws well. Familiarity with temperament of local law enforcement and the district attorney’s office concerning the use of deadly force by a private citizen is also helpful. The observations and opinions of individual law enforcement officers is a good place to get this information.
If you are involved in a shooting and it appears there may be an official inquiry, forget flashy, emotional phrases that uninformed people throw around, such as “shoot-to-kill,” “shoot-to-wound,” or “shoot-to” anything. Facts, not flash, will win the day. You didn’t shoot to do anything other than to stop the action and end the danger to yourself and your family. The old shoot-to-kill question is a trap that has been used on police officers in court; “if you shot to kill, why could you not shoot-to-wound?” Anybody familiar with defense shooting knows that close quarters shootings involve little more than shoving the gun at the target and firing. Likewise, nobody involved in a shooting has the luxury of time to ponder nonsense questions like the above.
What are the reasons I personally believe are justification for taking a human life?
Your own life and limb, and that of your family are givens--at least they should be. I doubt any reader of this blog has an issue with that. Deadly force to prevent theft--even though it may be legal--will likely present a moral dilemma. I would not kill to prevent the theft of my car stereo. In my mind, that is not a reasonable use of force. Somebody trying to steal supplies vital to my family’s survival is another issue. Now a simple theft has become a potential threat to my family, and deadly force becomes a reasonable option. Know your personal boundaries in the use of deadly force as well as you know the laws that govern its use.
What are my religious convictions or personal concerns about killing?
I can only speak to this issue as it relates to Christians, although any moral person must wrestle with these questions and come to their own conclusions. When the time comes to shoot, understand that:
1. Your target made the choice that has placed them in your gun sights.
They understood the dangers and ramifications of their scheme before they did it. They are expecting you‑‑their potential victim--to be too weak, frightened, or morally conflicted to resist with violence. Disappoint their expectations.
2. By killing them, you are not sending them to Hell.
They have made their life choices that have brought them to this moment. God is the judge--he will decide their eternal fate. You are simply deciding that your fate and the fate of your family are not to die at this person’s hand. Contrast your concern for this person with this biblical admonition to the head of the household: “But if any provide not for his own, and specially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith, and is worse than an infidel.” (I Timothy 5:8). “Provide,” as it is used here, means more than just bringing home the bacon. It encompasses all facets of provision--food, shelter, and safety. It means literally, “to take thought for; to care for.” One of your Christian duties to your family is security.
3. Killing is not always murder.
God of the Old Testament who issued the commandment “Thou shalt not murder” also instructed the Israelites to kill many times during their conquest of the Promise Land. Many righteous people of the Old Testament drew blood. As odd as this may sound, righteousness and killing are not mutually exclusive. And while one may choose to debate its meaning, I interpret Jesus’ instructions to the disciples in Luke 22 to sell their cloaks and purchase swords as divine justification for the deadly force option in self-defense.
4. Having to kill is a traumatic experience.
Should you have to make the choice to shoot, be prepared for the emotional turmoil that will inevitably follow. If it isn’t TEOTWAWKI, seek out counseling if necessary to work through the trauma. Whether it is TEOTWAWKI or not, remember that at the time you made your decision to shoot it was a clear-cut issue, and you acted decisively. Second-guessing yourself will only add to the turmoil. Reflect on the positives--you saved your life and the lives of your family or other innocents. Defense of the weak or defenseless is a noble thing. Don’t beat yourself up. By preparing for the worst ahead of time, you can find peace after making one of the hardest decisions a human being can be forced to make.
About the Author: Jeff R. has bachelor's degree in Pastoral Ministry, and has served as a youth pastor/associate pastor at churches in two states. He has also served for several years as a law enforcement officer and is now emplyoed by a major metropolitan police department in Texas.
James,
Last night was the first episode of a survival reality show on The Discovery Channel, 'The Colony', It is a 10-week experiment illustrating how 10 people cope with life after a biological wipe-out. They started with the first six participants being sleep deprived for 30 hours, then "raiding" a department store for whatever they can find before engaging in an eight mile walk through the Los Angeles River [--now a concrete aqueduct, which is dry most of each year--] to find an abandoned factory marked "Sanctuary".
The show did illustrate how most of us who are unprepared will fail to secure needed materials, delegate responsibilities, and chose a defensible location. But the first episode did show how a bit of cleverness can go a long way at times.
I suggest all of those that can watch the show, do so. It may show us what not to do as well as give food for thought so far as our own survival plans. - Eric
JWR Replies: While the show probably has some redeeming value, I have a few concerns from the very outset. (But keep in mind that thusfar I've only seen some brief previews and clips):
1.) The show depicts a small number of people surviving in a relatively resource-rich environment, in a simulation of the aftermath of a devastating pandemic. This is something akin to the movie I
Am Legend (a remake of the now very dated 1971 movie The
Omega Man
2.) The series puts a subtle stamp of approval on looting. They just give it more acceptable names, like "scavenging" and "foraging". This might be acceptable in a very low-likelihood mega-pandemic --something approaching an extinction level event. But is it is not acceptable in the far, far more likely situation where the majority of the population is intact, and title to deeded property is likewise intact. For the show's producers to depict the former, when the latter will actually be the case in 98%+ of real-world scenarios is collective brainwashing.
3.) The series will show a group of people in an essentially tactical situation, where their lives are frequently threatened by hostile outsiders. I will be surprised to see the key military principal of Unity of Command encouraged. As is typical for "reality" shows (such as Survivor), it is assumed that the members of the audience will develop "favorite" characters, because of similarities in background or temperament. Hence, the producers employ the artifices of equality of their initial tangible property, democracy, and communistically-shared property. They seem to have votes on everything. But in the real world, when disaster strikes and desperate people are seeking to to eat you, it is hardly the time to dawdle, debate, and take numerous votes on immediate courses of action. Rather, the odds are that in a real-world disaster situation that people will take refuge at either a private home, or in a public shelter. In a private home, it will probably be the land-owner that will call the shots, while at a public shelter, it will probably be a sworn law enforcement officer--most likely a sheriff--that will coordinate manning a defense.
4.) The show only depicts a 10 week time period. Hence the participants will be able to survive entirely off the largesse of the old world. But if the scenario were more realistic, they'd be part of a much larger population that would rapidly deplete the available food supplies. So it is likely that activities like gardening would begin with the first available growing season. (Of course, in southern California, the growing "season" is practically year-round. There, it is water availability that would be the key issue. In a grid-down collapse, sans electrically-pumped water, the region would rapidly revert to desert.)
Sir,
I enjoyed the article about "Preparing for Joy". The Christmas after Hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola [Florida, in 2004] was depressing and sad. My family and street was in a gloomy state that almost nothing could get us out of.
About a week before Christmas I got off my butt and spent my last $40 on outside Christmas lights. It was kind of a funny sight, seeing the lights on the damaged house. But do you know what? The next day lights started popping up all down the street. People who never put lights up were putting them up.
Even though we did not have all the wrappings of Christmas that was one of my favorite Christmas celebrations. Everyone's heart was lifted with 40 bucks of lights. Best money I ever spent.
I'm going to order some [strings of] 12 volt lights and put in my survival kit and prepare for fun.
Thanks for all the great info! - Steven
Reader P.D. spotted this: Global Exposure in Financial Derivatives Surpasses One Quadrillion Dollars
This was linked at the Total Investor blog: Economist Shiller Sees 'Bad Recession,' Stocks Could Drop Again. "Shiller says that this is a dreaded "liquidity trap."
The MOAB keeps growing: Fannie & Freddie: The most expensive bailout (Thanks to Charlie W. for the link.)
From "HP" comes this piece by Mish Shedlock: Bernanke Terrified Over Commercial Real Estate, Seeks Still More Power Over Consumers
Heather flagged this: Cash-strapped states raid 911 funds
Items from The Economatrix:
Global Exposure in Derivatives in Excess of One Quadrillion Dollars
24 Trillion Reasons to Buy Gold
Strategist: China Politely Moves Away From Dollar
US Foreclosure Crisis Spreads to New States
Awash in Nonsense (The Mogambo Guru)
John Galt: Welcome to the Eye of the Storm "Welcome to the eye of the storm. And that storm, as displayed above, is Hurricane Wilma, the most intense storm in recorded history. That storm is getting ready to move again and the most powerful part of the eyewall is about to slam into our economic fantasy land at full force."
Massive Airline Cuts as Business Travel Plunges
New Fed Role: "Super Cop" to Police Banks
No Jobs, No Insurance; Hard Times for Young Adults
Coca-Cola 2Q: Profits Up 43%
Starbucks Back to Roots with Cafe Concept
Bernanke Says Jobs, Consumers are Key
Brazil and Canada Begin Dumping US Treasury Bond Debt
Bernanke Fights Threat by US Congress to Audit Fed
Chris O. sent this article, that came from of all places, GQ magazine: Could You Survive Without Money? Meet the Guy Who Does. "In Utah, a modern-day caveman has lived for the better part of a decade on zero dollars a day. People used to think he was crazy."
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My Brother in Christ Bob G. this: Middle East atomic conflict would kill tens of millions: report
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Didn't Joe Biden ever take OPSEC 101? It 's only a "secret bunker", if you keep it a secret.
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The asking price of the North Idaho Turn Key Retreat (advertised on our spin-off SurvivalRealty,com site) has just been dropped 22% to just $299,995. That is a real bargain for a property in such a desirable region.
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In his 1987 movie Robocop, Paul Verhoven fairly accurately predicted a future where corporations would effectively own and operate Motor City: Detroit: The Post-Apocalyptic Future of American Cities?
"Windage and elevation, Mrs. Langdon. Windage and elevation..." - John Wayne as Col. John Henry Thomas, The Undefeated.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Thanks to the efforts of my agent, both Ulysses Press and Penguin books have reached separate agreements to make audio books of my novel "Patriots:
A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse"
In other publishing news, Amazon.com now has the final cover illustration for my upcoming book "How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It" on their web site. This 336-page non-fiction book is scheduled for release on September 29th. Be advised that Amazon is already taking pre-orders, but I'd greatly appreciate it if you'd wait to order until the "Book Bomb" Day, September 29th. By massing our orders on that day, I hope to make the book a best-seller, just as we did for "Patriots" , back in April. That drove the book up to #6 in Amazon's overall rankings, and attracted lots of media attention. That was also the impetus for the contract from Simon & Schuster for two "Patriots" sequels that will be released in 2010 and 2011. Many Thanks!
Dear JWR,
I read the EMP article by Andru and thought it very well done with one minor correction in the power generation area (worked in the nuclear power industry for 20 years before changing careers). The EMP E3 pulse is very dangerous to the transformers in the transmission and distribution system, and hydro-electric and nuclear will also be severely affected. Commercial generators of any output run at 8,000-10,000 volts which is fed immediately to step up transformers to feed the transmission system. The most common voltage for the transmission system is 250,000 to 500,000 volts (3 phase) which reduces amperage and therefore reduces line losses. The power goes from the power plant through the transmission system to one of the many interchange grids which direct and control where the power is going to. The power is bought and sold in commodity markets by these interchange systems. Even if you live next to a power plant its output will go through the transmission system first, and then to a series of step down transformers in the distribution system before finally being delivered to the customer. Much of the time my home power was not supplied by the power plant I lived next to and worked at.
The transformers are the weak link. A severe solar storm can induce currents that will destroy them (this has happened). Safety interlocks may not work as the pulse can increase current too fast for the breaker to trip before the contacts get welded shut or else it can cause winding damage before it trips. As Andru says the extent of the damage will be the problem. None of the high tension step up/step down transformers are made in the US anymore. And the lead times for their manufacture are measured in years. I expect in such a scenario desperate measures will be taken to produce transformers (or repair them – very difficult and not possible if the damage is severe enough).
If we suffer an EMP attack plan for the power being off for years. I would suspect that power recover would be prioritized in the major metropolitan areas as that is where most people and industry are. The rural areas will probably be the last to be worked. This is standard operating procedure (SOP) for power restoration, you do what brings the most people back online first. - James J.
Mr. Rawles,
Mention was made in your blog of an article entitled, "EMP 101 - A Basic Primer" concerning the results of an EMP attack on the United States. The article was written by William R. Forstchen, the author of the novel One
Second After.
I followed the link and read the article. For the most part it was very informative, especially the part about all modern airliners being "fly by wire" and controlled by computers. From my aviation background I know that the control surfaces of most large aircraft today are simply too large to be moved around by the pilot's own strength, as they were in aircraft designs up to the 1950s. Still, it was a graphic reminder that most large aircraft today are completely dependent on their on-board computer systems to operate. There is no "manual backup", just another spare computer system that could possibly also be damaged in an EMP incident.
But there was one section of his article discussing advance preparations to mitigate the effect of an EMP blast that I did not understand. That was the paragraph:
"An off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios by every local police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response department in the country would mean, that if then properly stored along with a large stock pile of batteries that within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running. This can not be emphasized enough, that proper communications and what the military calls "command and control," will go a long step towards maintaining public order."
I'm not quite sure what Mr. Forstchen is referring to with the term, "off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios"? If he is referring to the commonly available Family Radio Service (FRS) and General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS) walkie-talkies that use AA and AAA batteries, then he is not aware of their severe limitations. FRS radios only have 14 UHF channels and 0.5 watts of RF output power. The GMRS radios have 22 UHF channels and typically around 2 watts of RF output power.
Both radios operate on relatively low power and on UHF frequencies, a combination that will limit their effective range to a few miles typically. At best perhaps 10-miles with the higher powered 2-watt GMRS radio (don't believe the advertising hype on the package). The UHF frequencies do a better job of penetrating building walls, but they don't propagate as far as VHF signals. They provide "Line of Sight" operation - if you can see the other person in the distance, you should be able to reach them on the radio.
Based upon these obvious limitations, I don't understand where the author comes up with the statement that equipped with these consumer-grade walkie-talkies, "within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running." With their short range and limited channels, it is impossible to create a "nationwide network of communications". When used from inside a vehicle, the range of the low power FRS radio can be measured in feet! Usually the range is only a few car lengths, which makes for limited convoy use. In addition, the limited number of available radio channels will ensure a pandemonium of signals and the resulting radio gridlock reminiscent of the peak of CB radio activity in the late 1970s. This is especially true when you realize that every man, woman, and child could potentially be attempting to communicate on these same channels with their personally owned FRS or GMRS radio. The public service functions will no longer be operating on radio frequencies reserved and licensed exclusively for their use.
If the author is referring to the purchase of additional two-way radios of the type already in use by police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response departments, then he is unaware of how they operate. Most "business band" or "professional" hand held radios have a RF output of 5-to7 watts. They are still limited in range by their inefficient "rubber duckie" flexible antenna, frequency band, and power output. The only reason they seem to operate so well over many miles of varied terrain is because of the supporting infrastructure, mainly the radio repeater system. The radio repeater extends the range of the low powered hand held radios by retransmitting their signal [typically] from a mountaintop repeater site. A network of repeater stations located on high terrain can vastly improve the coverage of a hand held radio, providing excellent range throughout a county or even an entire state depending on the size and extent of the repeater network.
Unfortunately, the weak link in all of the radio systems used by public service agencies is their radio repeater system. With all the repeater stations off the air due to EMP damage (or even a lightning strike) the entire radio network falls apart. Most public service radios are programmed to operate exclusively through the repeater system. If the repeater system is down, the radios no longer work. Sometimes a sheriff's department will have their radios programmed with a "car-to-car" channel, which is a simplex frequency where the radios transmit & receive on the same frequency (without the need for a repeater radio). But these "direct" channels are very few, and are often the only simplex channel available out of a radio system with five or more radio channels. To provide adequate coverage over a large city or county, all the normally used channels are duplex frequencies going through the radio repeater system. An additional limitation is that each public service function is limited to their specific allocated and assigned radio channels. The radios are pre-programmed by a radio technician at his shop. The radios are not field programmable by the user.
In addition to this vulnerability, professional two-way radios use rechargeable battery packs - usually Nickel-Cadmium or Nickel-Metal Hydride. The sealed battery packs are designed to work with a specific model of radio. The radios do not use AA, AAA, C, or D-cell batteries. So unless there is a back room filled with chargers and a person assigned to keep all the spare batteries charged up and rotated out of the charger at all times, there is no simple approach to having charged batteries ready to go to support a stash of spare radios. In fact, most public service agencies can barely afford the minimum number of portable radios needed to equip all their personnel. There is no budget for an additional stash of spare batteries and radios.
The only radio service I know of that has the flexibility to adapt in a "repeater down" situation is the Amateur Radio Service. Instead of specific frequencies or channels, "Ham" radio operators are allocated entire radio bands to operate on. The VHF and UHF radios used in the Amateur Radio Service can be user programmed to operate on any desired frequency within a radio band, and all will switch to simplex operation at the press of a button. Manufacturers of ham radio equipment often offer an optional alkaline battery case for use with their hand held radio models. While looking like the typical Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd) battery pack from the outside, these battery cases can be opened up and AA batteries inserted into the slots. The battery case is then attached to the radio the same way as the regular NiCd battery packs do. This allows the ham radio operator to stockpile a stash of spare AA batteries for use during an extended power outage that prevents the usual recharging of the NiCd or Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery packs.
So, unless you are a ham radio operator, expect a long delay before normal radio communications are restored. Due to the limitations and vulnerabilities of public service two-way radio networks, reestablishing a nationwide network of radio communications is going to take time. Sincerely, - Bruce C.
James:
Andru’s outlook about EMP is in part misleading. The main item that Andru got correct is that an EMP attack will be more devastating that any other attack on America. I am an engineer and have read the Critical National Infrastructures (CNI) Report and this report is based on educated opinions without large scale testing since large scale testing has not been performed due to banning of nuclear testing. Localized EMP testing generally wipes out the electronics depending on how close the EMP generator is to the electronic equipment. It is all supposition as to the amount of damage that an EMP attack will create but it is know from a nuclear weapon test in 1962 that was 800 miles from Hawaii and the EMP created damage to Hawaii even with the minor amount of [microcircuit] electronics existing at that time. Think what the damage would happen in our electronics world of today.
Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse by Jerry Emanuelson: "Although nuclear EMP was known since the earliest days of nuclear weapons testing, the magnitude of the effects of nuclear EMP were not known until a 1962 test of a thermonuclear weapon in space called the Starfish Prime test. The Starfish Prime test knocked out some of the electrical and electronic components in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away.
When the 1.44 megaton W49 thermonuclear warhead detonated at an altitude of 248.5 miles (399 km), it made no sound. There was a very brief and very bright white flash in the sky that witnesses described as being like a huge flashbulb going off in the sky. The flash could be easily seen even through the overcast sky at Kwajalein Island, about 2,000 km. to the west-southwest.
In a phenomenon unrelated to the EMP, the radiation cloud from the Starfish Prime test subsequently destroyed at least five United States satellites and one Soviet satellite. The most well-known of the satellites was Telstar I, the world's first active communications satellite. Telstar I was launched the day after the Starfish Prime test, and it did make a dramatic demonstration of the value of active communication satellites with live trans-Atlantic television broadcasts before it orbited through radiation produced by Starfish Prime (and other subsequent nuclear tests in space). Telstar I was damaged by the radiation cloud, and failed completely a few months later.
EMP is a potentially massive, severe problem that can essentially devastate our nation. America as we know it can not survive even a moderate EMP attack. Society will collapse.
The EMP pulse flows through the air at the speed of light until it hits antennas, power lines, cabling, etc. then the pulse flows through this cabling at the speed of light into the electronic equipment and the electronics fail.
[Here is a roughly analogous event that is illustrative:] Our television cable system was struck by lighting and all electronics that were on and all electronics that were off and that were connected to the TV cable were fried. Similarly, EMP will fry any unprotected electronics. The only way to protect your electronics is to have the equipment inside an adequately grounded Faraday cage (metal box) that does not have power or cabling running into it. Your electronics that are not in use should be stored in a grounded Faraday cage everyday.
Even if repair parts for your electronics were available, how would you obtain the repair parts since there will be no mail or transportation services. If you have an auto that still runs after and EMP attack, the last thing that you will wish to do is take your vehicle out and show everyone that you have an operating vehicle.
We are acquiring extra [CPU] "brains" for our diesels and SUVs. We also are acquiring carbureted vehicles.
Even if an EMP strike only caused the death of 10% or our population (30 million citizens) just how do you survive this as a nation? Prepare for EMP and pray that it does not happen.
Analysis:
Severity of potential failures: From least to greatest [Some causative details and conjecture deleted by JWR, for brevity]
1. Swine Flu – World Wide – Population loss 1 to 10% – could trigger Item Number 3.
2. Civil War – America – Population loss of up to 40% – could trigger Item Number 3.
3. Financial Collapse – World Wide – Population loss up to 40%. Loss of 50+ years of progress. Will probably lead to nuclear war or EMP strike. No economy remains.
4. EMP Attack – America – Population loss of up to 80% - No economy remains.
5. Nuclear War – World Wide – Population loss up to 60%. No economy remains.
Regards, - TD
Dear Mr. Rawles:
I have been following several good reader contributions including “Bug Out At the Last Minute” arguments versus those who consider “Early Relocation” and most recently “A Multiple Family Retreat—Lessons Learned the Hard Way” in regards to the most expeditious and efficient way to set up a self-sufficient retreat. While I understand that some folks are just simply unable to make a full time commitment in setting up a retreat, I also know that there are many—while there are still the comforts of life available (television, readily available food and gasoline)—that are unwilling to make the sacrifice necessary to prepare for any pending manmade or natural disaster(this include members of my extended family who are living what they consider the “good life” but I am sure will be on our doorstep WTSHTF) From my family’s experience, if one is not practicing what they preach…i.e. actually learning by trial and error and doing what one plans to do when the time come, then no matter how much one has prepared—stocking food supplies, buying “Seeds in a Can”, or planning to bug out with everything but the kitchen sink—then there will most certainly be a very steep learning curve to be had. Believe me, my husband and I have made many mistakes, but because we are also willing to sacrifice, after five years have reached the level of preparedness WTSHTF! In fact, it is best to get to a prepared lifestyle so WTSHTF, such events are just a mere bump in the road for your family.
With my parents we purchased 110 acres of fertile land, with two running streams, a spring, and two ponds 100 miles away from the nearest “Metro Mess”. There are several vibrant and viable little towns within driving or even walking distance for that matter. These towns are very close knit and some would call them “clannish” because everyone seems to be related to everyone else. We bought the land 10 years ago, but starting living on it full time 5 years ago.
Most people would think this is the perfect setup. We think it is, however, please allow me the opportunity to expand on what I mean “Practicing what you preach” because our journey to where we are today did not come by just planning, but by doing.
1. The Land - Pros: Good land, sandy loam, available water. Cons: Just as the veggies like the soil, so do the weeds! If we do not pull weeds everyday, they seem to come back double within the week. Additionally, despite all the attractive pictures on the veggie packets and promises that they will grow, I have learned what will grow in my particular location and what will not grow. Although we live in zone 7, in my particular location it is not uncommon to have a late hard killing freeze the end of April. I still have fruit trees, but lost all of the fruit this year. I also know what types of vegetables will grow and which ones will not. This was not learned by planning to do it in the future when it is necessary, but over a trial and error five-year period. Is this a process that one wants to learn when one really needs it, or instead by practicing what you intend to do, so that you are up to speed when the time comes as disaster strikes? It means having on hand all the tools and supplies needed, and this was only learned by doing before hand.
2. The Livestock - Pros: A ready food source or beasts of burden. Cons: They are reliant on you for their well being. Chickens get eaten by varmints or neighbors dogs if one is not careful, animals need daily care—whether from you, or someone else if you are away for a time—they get sick and hurt, get into a neighbor’s pasture, etc. If you plan to eat chickens for example, then you must learn how to kill them and dress them properly. Believe me, all these things are not something one needs to learn when it is truly necessary, but is only learned by doing before hand.
3. The Farmstead and accompanying equipment—Pros: This goes without saying. Cons: If one is not a handyman, or DIY, then learn anyway you can! Metal roofs blow off, water well pumps stop working, trees fall on things that they are not supposed to, wild fires and floods, etc. It is just not a matter of “Calling someone” to fix these things because out in rural areas, it is assumed that everyone knows how to take care of these things. One can only know what tools they will need for their particular situation by practicing and experimenting—remember an electric dehydrator for preserving food, or a wide screen tv will not be useful when there is no electricity. Our family got rid of cable/satellite tv (no time to watch it other than a rental movie every once in a while) but, we still have satellite Internet service—the best source for alternative news like SurvivalBlog. I am learning to can with a pressure cooker and preserve food that we grow. All these things are learned by doing.
4. The Job—My husband and I both had jobs in the city when we bought our land. Before we moved from the Metro Mess, we scaled back and paid off as much debt as possible, and saved as much as possible. When we finally moved to our land we commuted to our jobs for three years, 1,000 miles a week. That meant going to bed promptly at 9 p.m. in order to get up at 3:30 to feed the animals and be on the road by 5 a.m. for our 200 mile round-trip trek. My husband retired to work on the farm full time, and as soon as I was able, I found a teaching job in one of the small towns. I taught for two years in this position, but now our homestead is able to generate enough income, plus what we have saved, for me to resign my teaching position. Is this difficult to do? Yes, it takes sacrifice and ignoring the naysayers who may think that you are a little crazy. But again, sacrifice is only gained by doing.
Now, as I stated earlier, I know that there are many people out there that do not have a choice, and are doing the best that they can to prepare and I pray for you. However, I also know that there are just as many people who are unwilling to work hard and sacrifice so when the time comes, they will be scrambling to get themselves in a better plan, and with possible dire results. Please, if at all possible, try to get to your ultimate retreat before you really need it. Learn not by planning, but by doing and Practicing What You Preach! God Bless, - SHM
Global Swine Flu Deaths Top 700 "Margaret Chan, WHO director-general, has warned that swine flu will become the biggest flu pandemic ever seen."
Safety of Swine Flu Vaccine to Face Tough Scrutiny
Swine Flu Brits to be Quarantined
Little Girl 8th Swine Flu Victim in Columbia
CBS 60 Minutes: 1976 Swine Flu: 300 Deaths From Vax, One Death From Flu
Airlines To Ban Suspected Swine Flu Victims. Gee, that's a timely move!
First Vaccine for Foiling Swine to be Tested -The first human trials of a swine- flu vaccine are set to begin in Australia as deaths and infections from the H1N1 virus mount worldwide, intensifying demand for a protective shot.
WHO: Schools Can Opt to Close; Death Toll at 700
Doctors Warn of Swine Flu Vaccine for Vulnerable Patients
Pregnant Women Should Stay Home this Fall
UK: Shops Selling Out of Thermometers Because of Swine Flu
Questions Out There as World Readies for Swine Flu Vaccination
A Whole Industry is Waiting for a Pandemic
Flu Vaccine Scramble Could Get Ugly
I recently bookmarked the Total Investor blog. It is has become my favorite aggregation sites for economic and investing news. Yesterday, they featured a video clip: Marc Faber On CNBC: "Marc Faber is expecting an 'ultimate crisis' that will 'clean the system. 'If you pump money into the system and you create large fiscal deficits, you create volatility,' Faber said'"
Items from The Economatrix:
Making Sense of Second Quarter Earnings, So Far "As you can see, a consumer retrenchment is happening here. And in my opinion, that is an even bigger story than the individual earnings reports or big profits from Wall Street firms. It's going to dictate how quickly (or slowly) our economy turns around, and it has major implications for all the stocks in your portfolio."
Low-Priced Foreclosures Incite Bidding Wars
DC Doesn't Feel the Pinch of the Recession
Tight Budget? Send Kids to Camp Granny
Bernanke Sees "Tentative Signs" Economy Is Stabilizing, Says Rates Will Stay Low Tentative, unsure; uncertain; not definite or positive; hesitant. Synonyms: doubtful, probationary, provisional .
CIT Expects $1.5 Billion Loss, May Seek Bankruptcy if Debt Swap Fails
Short-Term Municipal Debt Market is Showing Strains, Fed Says
Fiscal Ruin of The Western World Beckons, a Bigger Financial Crisis Brewing (John Mauldin)
Seven Myths About Gold Debunked, Bubble Bursting Warning Target $600?
Bob Chapman: Goldman Sachs Raking in Massive Profits, Market Review
Schoon: Goldman Sachs--A Vampire on the Jugular of America "The US claims the US Treasury still holds approximately 7,000-8,000 tons of gold but has not allowed a public audit of its reserves since 1954; and since 1999 the UK and Swiss have seen their gold reserves decimated as bankers freely sold their gold in order to cap the rise in the price of gold to keep the banker’s paper money scheme intact. This is perhaps the last opportunity for private investors to purchase gold when it is being diverted from public treasuries in order to keep gold prices artificially low. These publicly subsidized prices will not be available forever; for when the banker’s Ponzi-scheme of paper money collapses, gold will never again be this cheap."
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Blacksheep sent this: Amazon Erases Orwell Books From Kindle. OBTW, let me know if your Kindle edition of "Patriots:
A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse"
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Mycroft mentioned that the
show Survival School is available on Hulu.com. Here is a description: "Dehydration. Exhaustion. Starvation. Welcome to The Air Force S.E.R.E. program, one of the toughest training programs the U.S. military has to offer. Out of 500 potential applicants, only 47 Airmen actually get admitted to the program, and almost half of them won’t make the cut. These brave Airmen are about to embark on the toughest challenge they will ever face. They will learn some harsh lessons, push themselves to their limit and use their surroundings, all to help them be better Airmen and become masters of survival."
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Some good news: The chronic shortage of ammunition and full capacity magazines seems to be abating. I just noticed that 44Mag.com now has both CMI mil-spec M14 magazines and DPMS AR-10 magazines back in stock. I strongly recommend buying what you need for each of your guns (and planned gun purchases) as soon as supplies become available. Quality magazines are a great hedge on inflation.
"Liberty is never unalienable; it must be redeemed regularly with the blood of patriots or it always vanishes. Of all the so-called natural human rights that have ever been invented, liberty is the least to be cheap and is never free of cost." - Robert A. Heinlein, Starship Troopers
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
A segment on the Today US network television show on Tuesday morning featured SurvivalBlog regular Kathy Harrison (the author of the excellent preparedness primer Just in Case
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Just one week left! Ready Made Resources is continuing their special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don't miss out on this sale, as they don't happen very often. Place your order soon, since the sale ends next Wednesday.
I am sitting here and it is raining, and raining and raining and... Four inches so far, nobody can water like God can! After our last rain, everything in the garden had a tremendous burst of energy. The dreary, raining day for some folks though, is especially depressing. I enjoy those occasional days, when I feel like I can actually sit down at the computer without feeling guilty because there is so much to do outside that I really shouldn't be here.
It got me to thinking again about “what if?” How can we defeat those occasional bouts of dreariness, especially if and when TEOTWAWKI comes along? Making sure every ones attitudes stay uplifted might be one of those things that make living in a very, very hard time a little more bearable.
You’ve always heard the saying, “if momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.” Well, momma, start with yourself first. Make sure your priorities are straight, your head, your body (I’m especially in need of that), your spiritual life, and your relationships are in great shape. Remember, you and your family are a team. It is going to be you and them against the world. Ya’ll will possibly be the only ones you engage with for a while. Your relationships to each other is of vital importance. Pick your battles, which is something I have to be very conscious of. Make sure everyone in the family knows how vital their contribution is. Even if it is just the little ones trained well enough to know how to mind and do their chores. It will save a lot of added frustration especially if things are in really bad shape.
Make sure you have something that is special to you stored back--I know this may sound irrelevant and maybe even a little selfish, but just a small bottle of perfume, or a little lipstick, after you come in from a long, hot, sweaty day in the garden, to clean up and smell and look pretty, will give you (and him) a nice, uplifting feeling. You are the heart of the home, make it a place that gives your family a feeling of warmth and welcome when they are there. Grow a few hardy flowers that like hot weather and do well without much rain. We never know from year to year how much rain we will get. Cut them and put them on the table. Save your dish water to pour on them if the weather is dry. It will lift everyone's spirits to come to the table with a nice tablecloth and flowers. Your conversation makes a difference, too. Talk about memories, funny stories, you might even start writing them down so you won’t forget them when they happen. You will be the one who makes a vital difference in attitudes, and this is true even when things are normal. Make plans for birthdays or other special days. Birthday candles do not take up much space and cost very little , they are a very important part of birthdays, especially the little [single digit] ones. Folks like me have to have permission from the Fire Department! You know what is important to your family as far as holidays and families times. Prepare for those special times.
What about things to do [at quiet times]? My husband loves puzzles. I will have some puzzle books put back. My daughter is like me: she loves art. If you have a child who loves to draw, make sure you have some art supplies on hand. A reader? G.A. Henty
Games are a great family time and some of them are just for fun, some help learning skills. Whatever your family enjoys and make sure you have a few for all ages. You need those old fashioned ones, because the computer may not be working. We have made our own games. We’ve dug some small holes in the ground and found some old washers and used them similarly to horseshoes. Since we home schooled, geography was taught by buying plastic posters of the continents. Each person would have a different place and we would ask about rivers, mountain ranges, countries, anything that was on the map could be formed into a question. Charades, an old game is great if you have visitors. Music is wonderful. Maybe you have a musician in your family. Sing together. It makes a light-hearted atmosphere and gets everyone away from all the talk about news and what is going on. There are web sites on line that can give you many more ideas, and now would be the time to prepare.
If you have folks who like to sew, knit, crochet, woodwork make sure they have a few items that could give them some time to be creative. All work and no play makes a really bad attitude. It is a good way to make gifts as holidays and birthdays come along. Make your own cards and stick one on a bed or on the mirror to tell your family how much you appreciate their hard work and their good attitude. A little praise goes a long way.
Preparing for fun and relaxation is as important as preparing for physical needs. Fear and bitterness are some of the worse life threatening things that will bring the whole household down. Having a lot of time on your hands, gives time to think about what I don’t have, or what I’m missing. Just adding some of the fun items will keep your family occupied in good, clean, happy, useful business.
Don’t forget rest~satisfying rest. When you are overworked, tired, hungry and worried your responses to folks can be well, not nice. That can lead to arguments and a lack of teamwork. Making sure everyone gets a restoring night's sleep will help get them ready for another day of taking care of business. Don’t forget to say your prayers. God has got you through another day.
Your relationship with God, knowing that you belong to Him and that your family does, is the first thing you need to have total faith in. Know that although you have prepared to the best of your abilities, that nothing happens to us that does not pass through God’s “hands” first. You must know that what He allows in our lives, He has either caused, or will use for our good and His Glory.
These are just a few ideas. There is so much information on the web now, that finding other ideas are only a mouse click away. Make a notebook and keep ideas in it. If you do not have the time right now to get things together, with the notebook you won’t forget about them. This might be good for the kids to do.
Depression is a killer, of the spirit and sometimes of lives. Just a little joy in hard times makes things go so much easier. When you can laugh during adversity, it might make a difference in getting your life back to normal. “A merry heart doeth good, like a medicine.” So remember while you’re storing up the beans, rice, tools and ammo, don’t forget to store up some joy. - Carla
Hello Mr. Rawles,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my previous e-mail. I must confess your original post on your blog and your reply left me feeling somewhat bothered and a little defensive. I have been mulling this over all day and deep down I know the reason why, it's because you are absolutely 100% right.
My wife who makes my world go round could not leave her family, my son who has special needs is receiving very specialist care locally, my community, friends and neighbours who have worked this land for generations rely on me for support and will come to rely on my specialist skills come TEOTWAWKI. This is the hand of cards I have been dealt, idealistic young fool I may be, but I cannot abandon my family, friends and country.
There may be a die-off, there may be wars, unspeakable hardships and suffering but I have to do the best I can for all my people and for the sake of our country,a country that may be currently on the skids but it is still a country that generations of our fathers, brothers and sons have fought and toiled for.
I could be just as easily shot and killed as an outsider in New Zealand, Belize, or Idaho come TEOTWAWKI, if I am going to meet my maker I would rather do it with the respect of myself and my loved ones, knowing that I did not abandon them in their hour of need.
Keep up the good work Mr. Rawles, I will continue to read and enjoy your blog. - Handyman
Sir,
Having been an avid reader of your superb blog from the very beginning, I would like to thank you and all the contributors for an invaluable resource. It’s my computer’s homepage and is the first thing read every day.
Your forecast for the probable scenario post-TEOTWAWKI, or even mini-TEOTWAWKI seems pretty accurate, although the population figure you give [for England] is out-of-date. As of mid-2007 we were at almost 61,000,000 and counting. Soon to be standing room only, it seems. [JWR Adds: Just to clarify, the population of all of the UK was 61 million in 2007. Wikipedia says 51 million is the correct figure for just England.]
So I was right with the 51 million figure. The only good news is that if you consider Scotland, the population density for the entirety of the UK is much lower. Not that Scotland has the most agreeable climate. I'll update that letter accordingly.
Despite living in as near to the middle of nowhere as is possible in these crowded isles, my family and I have been planning our G.O.O.D. from the UK for some time. I’m happy to say that the new place [in the Mediterranean region] is now up and running and we are spending 50% of our time there, (soon to be 100%).
Some things we learned during our relocation exercise:
· It seems, if the television programmes on the subject are to be believed, that some people, after a two-week trip to some exotic location, decide on the spur of the moment to move there – and do just that. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that falls under the ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’ caveat, aka the ‘P7’ rule. Please, please, please, think it through and do your research.
· Where ever you may roam, you take yourself there. Sit yourselves down and think deeply about what you want to do, where you want to go, what you want when you get there, and what you will need to make it happen. If you are running away from something, don’t be surprised if you find it at the end of your journey, sat waiting for you. Running towards something on the other hand..
· I cannot stress this enough: Do your homework. This applies if you are relocating to the next county or the other side of the world. Do not be seduced by picturesque views and/or sales talk. One of the nicest locations we saw on a previous move has appeared on national (UK) television many times; sadly, due to its propensity to flooding several times a year. Fortunately we had looked into it and bought higher ground, elsewhere. The Internet is your friend here, but does not remove the need for feet on the ground and genuine field research.
· Once you’ve identified your chosen location, do yet more research and find the right spot. I will not preach to the choir about the need for fertile soil, water, politics, etc, but would say, as we found to our cost, that sometimes people can be mistaken in their beliefs, if not downright economical with the truth. Check your information, then check it again. It cost us in the region of 5,000 Euros and counting for failing to check an item.
· Allow a realistic timescale for your move. Our (hopefully) ultimate G.O.O.D. exercise involved a change of country, for which we had allowed five years to achieve. It’s going on seven now and whilst installed, we are still commuting internationally and hoping not to get caught up in the Swine Flu snafu whilst in transit. It’s not all been bad news though, the delay has allowed time to improve language skills and inventory, and my good lady has developed a fearsomely accurate eye with her new Benelli. (Sadly, Messrs. Mossberg & Remington are hard to come by out at our location, but the Italian job is a nice, if expensive alternative). It is also pleasing to know that ownership of same does not make one automatically suspect in the eyes of the law or the local politically correct set (whom, I am glad to report, have not found their way here yet).
· Be aware, be very aware that even a short move can result in you finding yourself in a much different culture. This is as true of village/small-town life as it is if you change countries. Be prepared for things being done differently. Many countries prefer the mañana philosophy to the Protestant Work Ethic and this can be incredibly frustrating for some. I personally know of several wannabe ‘GOODers’ who have given up in sight of the finish line due to their inability or unwillingness to adapt to local conditions. If you cannot or will not adapt, then please, stay where you are. (I appreciate this sentiment doesn’t generally apply to ‘our type’ of folk, but if you prefer to be dreamer, save yourself a lot of hassle and money, just don’t..). Similarly, many of these out of the way locations reputedly use the ‘small brown envelope’ method of getting things done. I cannot of course possibly comment on this, but YMMV.
· Render unto Caesar.. This probably should go under the ‘culture’ paragraph, but I think it’s worthy of its own piece. You might not fully understand local bureaucracy – indeed if in a foreign country, with a different language, you probably never will, but it is no excuse in the eyes of the law. If nothing else, find out how, when and where to pay your taxes – and make sure you do. I am told the impound lot for our location is literally full to overflowing with foreign vehicles because owners neglected to pay local taxes on them. (And this is a small, rural location). Remember, the nail that stands out gets hammered down and one presumes under the current financial conditions that this can only get worse. It’s bad enough to lose your pick-up, but your home?
So far, the move has proven the right thing to do. We are totally off-grid and re-learning the joys of septics, generators and, until the well is bored, tanked water.
High on the list is a solar PV set up. We could have held off moving till this was installed, but decided that being there was the number one priority. Given the climate, electricity is not a priority here in the summer, except perhaps for ice and the winters are typically much milder than the UK, so we feel our genset will more than suffice for the time being.
Getting used to the new way of life is fun and challenging at the same time. One thing we have found, is that working full-time in the summer sun of the southern Mediterranean is very different than sitting on a sunbed sipping a beer! Perhaps the man who invented the siesta was not so crazy after all.
In conclusion, if you do decide to take the gap, be aware that it’s not something to do lightly, but it can be done and is more than worth the effort. - Michael
Jim,
As the only military-experienced "beans, bullets and band aids"-type survivalist who shows up at the local weekly Peak Oil meetings, I can say there's a lot of Transition Town stuff going on. It spun-off from Post-Peak Oil groups.
I made the effort to avoid all the Transition Town stuff a long time ago. It mostly consists of retirement age hippies-turned-yuppies-turned-retirees, trying to be do-gooders. I'm just a fellow Army intel guy who's done his own extensive research with regards to Peak Oil (to include fusion between various sources, researchers, etc.), and have been prepping accordingly. After all, we did hit the global peak in liquid fuels extraction in June, 2008. Judging from the shape of this peak mathematically, in addition to the plateau we've been at (there have been a lot of head-fakes since 2005), along with the continuing depletion rates of the current 54 oil fields around the planet that are now in decline (source: TheOilDrum.com), this one looks for real (some are politically intentional slow-downs in production, I have to admit).
I've noticed that all the transition town types have no preps to speak of, and are clueless about preparedness in general, and "don't believe in survivalism".
"We're all going to sing kumbaya in our little communities (which only exist in their minds, BTW) and grow cute little green things, but we're not going to store anything" (one of them even had the audacity to ask me about getting a firearm. Again, I mainly hooked-up with Post-Peak Oil in order to learn how to grow food organically, and have learned a lot, and made some good friends). I have to admit though, that the movement has been growing in the US.
There's a certain British Transition Town expert who has been assisting Post-Peak Oil in this area, and I've asked him specifically, "Does Totnes actually feed itself?" Does Totnes generate its own electrical power?" I've never gotten a straight answer from him, just "well, kind of, sort of, not yet..."
Then what exactly is a Transition town? I'm going to be making sure my friends from Post-Peak Oil get your post.
Keep-up the good work. My wife was part of Book Bomb Day, back in April: One copy for me, one for her father: An old, Mel Tappan type, who had not even previously known about SurvivalBlog. - J.E.
Hello From Ireland,
My wife and I were delighted to see the article on England and your advise to leave for more lightly populated areas of the globe.
Things in England might be bad but here in Ireland things are worse. The economy is in tatters, taxes are being raised, people are advised to avoid getting pregnant because of swine flu. There are talks of keeping schools closed after the summer holidays to avoid the spread of the swine flu so that a vaccine program can be administered, even though we all know there isn't a vaccine available yet. The
unemployment rate is 12% and our brilliant Government inform us it will go to 20%.
The population density is 180/sq mile, knife and gun laws are unbelievable ( I have been waiting six months for a license for a .22 rifle even though I have no criminal record and served three years in the Reserve Defence Force performing security details several times at a major airport with a weapon loaded with live ammunition) sad to say it is possible to get a gun illegally within 24 hours. Pistols are now illegal, because the drug gangs were shooting each other with pistols, despite the fact that no one was ever killed with a legally held pistol. The gang crime here is at level comparable to what was seen in [cities in] the USA in the 1970s. Our Police are retiring at a rate of 45 per month (the maximum size of the force was 12,000) and because of the recession they are not being replaced with recruits, and best of all a Government report advises the closure of half of the country's Police Stations.
My American Wife and myself (Irish) are making plans to get the hell out of Dodge we are looking at Northern Scandinavia as the best option for a place to escape before it all goes very bad here. There are several other Irish people who think the same as ourselves and are making their own escape plans. We would welcome your comments on our choice of location. - INNUKSUK Survival, County Limerick, Ireland.
Jim,
Although I very much agree that UK residents should, if possible, move overseas, I nonetheless believe that due to financial, residency requirements and other reasons, not everyone will be able to leave the UK to relocate in America, NZ or elsewhere. For those people, there remains the option of what I believe is one of the best retreat locations within the European Union: north of the Great Glen in Scotland. Specifically, I view the lower lying (farmable) terrain along the west coast and islands as being best suited to this purpose.
The benefits are, from my various sorties to study the region:
1. One of lowest population densities in western Europe.
2. Both distance (by UK standards!) and formidable mountainous barriers between the region and the large urban centers of Glasgow, Edinburgh and the east coast. Its isolation reduces its allure as a target for roaming urbanite gangs, a point even more applicable to the likes of [The Isle of] Skye which, during the days of the conflicts between the Lords of the Isles and the Stewarts, was so shielded by the Highlands wilderness that the king had to send his fleet from the east coast around the north of Scotland to attack them by sea. Even on the Great Britain mainland, the Knoydart region has no road access from the rest of Scotland; it can only be reached by 2 day hike or by sea. Something to bear in mind in a modern grid down scenario.
3. A largely conservative indigenous population, quietly distrustful of modern ways.
4. There are numerous small semi self-reliant communities dotted throughout the region, many of which are used to taking in idealist outsiders seeking refuge from the madding crowds.
5. Whereas the interior of the Highlands can have very severe winters with prolonged periods of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, the lower portions of the west coast are relieved by mild Atlantic currents providing a lenient maritime microclimate.
6. A hunting and outdoors culture. There are so many red deer in the region now that some locals are calling for the wolf to be reintroduced to reduce their numbers.
On the down side:
1. Isolation comes at a price; in good weather, it can take the best part of two hours to get to Inverness or Fort William from the west coast or [from the Isle of] Skye. In winter, you may have to wait longer until a storm ends or a snow plow comes along. Bad news if you need urgent medical treatment which, for now, can be circumvented by emergency helicopter missions undertaken by the military.
2. Strict Reformed Christians, who are considerable in number in the region, frown upon many activities that outsiders take for granted; for instance, their observance of the Sunday Sabbath in some cases compels them to pull a chair from the table rather than push it away, as the former mode is seen as less like work than the latter. So digging your garden or hanging clothes on a line on a Sunday would be a good way to alienate them. On the other hand, their lax attitude towards alcohol consumption will surprise teetotaling Christians from outside.
3. There is an undercurrent of lingering resentment towards the English who are still blamed for the infamous Highland Clearances. There is perhaps an outside chance of the odd Englishman becoming the local "expendable gringo" come TEOTWAWKI.
4. The quality of the soil is generally not great, although it is nonetheless possible with assistance from compost to grow a considerable amount of vegetables. Sturdy stock fencing is a must, due to the deer menace. Also, I am told that eagles account for high losses in spring lambs.
5. Self sufficient farming comes under a lot of petty scrutiny from over eager bureaucrats; for instance, it is illegal to help someone else butcher livestock on their holding; you can only do it to your own cattle on your own land.
6. And of course, like the rest of the UK, gun ownership is insanely regulated.
7. Scottish law and conveyancing practices are alien to those in the rest of the UK. Also, property prices tend to be very high, as are property taxes. I know someone who left the Highland to live in France because he couldn't bear the property taxes.
8. Summertime sees the area swamped with hillwalkers and tourists from all over Europe, many of whom are drawn to the quaint coastal communities and who may note ongoing self-sufficiency preparations for later reference.
Overall then, it's very far from perfect but nevertheless presents perhaps an emergency, last minute kind of option for those who don't think they have the wherewithal to make a bigger jump.
Finally, [for an illustration of the high population density,] see the photos of Europe from space at night. Kind regards, - Jay W.
Mr. Rawles,
Greetings from England. Having read "Patriots" from cover to cover many times and long been a devotee of your blog I do regard you as being one of the foremost experts in the world of preparation for TEOTWAWKI situations. However, I do have some queries with some points on your recent article regarding a SHTF situation in England.
While I appreciate that for some people it is the best option to emigrate, what practical advice would you have for people who emigration would not be possible? We are part of a well armed (many shotguns, Deer stalking rifles, .22 LRs, crossbows, compound bows etc.) rural community, that even with our climate produces more food than we could ever eat, in a defendable location, many locals are ex-military and our population is sufficient that there could be workers and soldiers.
Regarding moving abroad, Is not one of the golden rules of survival not to become a refugee or an outsider? It can take a long time to fully integrate into a community and be accepted, I believe that the threat of TEOTWAWKI is upon us now and in many places we would be regarded as "outsiders" or "foreigners". Belize was one of the options you put forward as a possible place to emigrate to, having worked for 18 months all over Belize I know enough about the people, the crime level, the corruption and the various factions to know that maybe that is not the best idea in the world. In a SHTF scenario there is not enough British troops there to protect it's interests and Belize is quite low down on the British Governments list of priorities.
Your advice and thoughts would be appreciated. - Handyman
JWR Replies: Your town might be the exception to the rule. One key question: How many miles from a major city is your town, and is it on a major highway? Or is it "off the beaten track" , away from refugee lines of drift? That could make a crucial difference in whether or not your town would be overwhelmed by refugees in a societal collapse.
Another consideration is counting the roads into the town. If you are fortunate, the geography will be favorable, limiting the avenues of approach. But in open farming country, there are usually numerous access roads. In a worst case scenario, how many roadblocks would have to be manned? Think through the number of defenders that would be required to maintain 24/7/360 security.
I only mentioned "...or perhaps Belize" for folks that already have friends or relatives that live there, and that you preferably already speak Spanish. Granted, you'd be considered an outsider, but Belize still has a very class-conscious society. Because of this, land owners--regardless of their origin--are generally held in esteem. I'd be more worried about criminals crossing the porous border with Guatemala, than about your next door neighbors.
GG sent this article by Henry Blodget: Gary Shilling: Stock Market Will Crash as US Consumers Retrench
Reader HPD sent a link to a recent post by Mish Shedlock: 500,000 Will Exhaust Unemployment Benefits by September, 1.5 Million by Year-end
Desert T flagged this: As Boom Times Sour in Vegas, Upward Mobility Goes Bust
Summers urges Banks to Lend Mores, Says Recovery Pace 'in doubt.'
Americans Pay Back Debts Most Since '52 as Jobless Spur Savings
More bodies go unclaimed as families can't afford funeral costs. (First family pets, now family members)
DD Sent these three items:
Subprime brokers mutate into loan fixers
Tough Times for Dairymen
Why the economy won't recover soon
Items from The Economatrix:
USPS May be Unable to Make Payroll in October and Retiree Health Plan Costs, Union Says
White House Putting Off Release of Budget Update The 2009 Deficit is $2 Trillion--Four times that of 2008!
As Economy Bites, White House Delays Budget Review
Faber: Next Stimulus Will Be Worse
Imminent Erosion of US Dollar Seawall
Rogers: America Bordering on Communism "Let's be honest about what this is: an attempt to hide a record-breaking deficit"
Cost of Bailout to US: $24 Trillion Maximum exposure could be $80,000 for every American
Examples of How Tax Increases Could Hit the Rich
US Commerce Chief Worried About Firms' Liquidity "Could cause small, medium manufacturers to go out of business."
Economic Indicators Up More than Expected in June "We're now getting data which points to stabilization," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc. "The overall signal they're sending is the slide in economic activity is poised to end. The jury is still very much out in terms of what happens after that."
United Airlines Set to Cause Financial Turbulence "Looks to raise ticket prices for thousands of fliers" and "stop taking credit cards for travel from certain travel agencies."
Garnet sent this: China dust cloud circled globe in 13 days. Garnet notes that this is something to keep in mind for a variety of emerging threats, including Ug99 wheat rust.
o o o
I was pleased to see that one of my recent blog articles was re-posted by The Silver Bear Cafe: The Nascent Depression: Be Ready to Barter and Adopt the Rhodesian View
o o o
Guns are consistently "the great equalizer". See these recent news articles: 82-year-old man kills invader and Child shoots intruder during home break-in, and Teen allegedly shoots and kills intruder.
o o o s
Reader Bill S. wrote to say that he conquered his alcohol addiction after reading the book The Easy Way to Stop Drinking.
"Never stand when you can kneel, never kneel when you can sit, and never sit when you can get down prone. Take your time, and make each shot count, son." - Donald Robert Rawles, (JWR's father), instruction on shooting positions, circa 1975
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
One topic I have paid close attention to for the past 10 years has been our nation’s risk to Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP). There are a few points I would like to make that are often overlooked—mostly dealing with the magnitude of the threat. I don’t claim to be an expert on the subject, but I have consumed as much information as possible that doesn’t delve into the high-level physics—the kind of knowledge required to truly be an expert. What may set me apart the most is the simple fact that I actually read the 181 page Critical National Infrastructures (CNI) Report released in April of 2008 and in my opinion, it has shed more light on the subject of EMP effects than any other research conducted since EMPs were first discovered more than 60 years ago.
Had this information been available a few years earlier to authors like William R. Forstchen in his novel One Second After would have likely painted a different picture of the effects of an EMP and how it would impact a society. His lessons are still valid, but a little more accurate information can have a huge impact on our preparation decisions.
Anatomy of an EMP:
Among the most commonly listed elements that determine the magnitude of an EMP, one deserves special emphasis and that is altitude. In most discussions, altitude is correctly identified as a significant factor in EMP effectiveness as a weapon but there are two distinct reasons why altitude is so important. The first and most obvious is the LOS (line of sight) influence of electromagnetic pulse. The higher you go, the greater distance the pulse can affect across the curved surface of the Earth. However, the point that most people don’t understand is the impact the atmosphere has upon the strength of an EMP. Logic would suggest that the closer you get to an EMP, the greater the impact upon sensitive electronic equipment. This is not necessarily the case and this is why a high altitude detonation not only increases the range of the EMP, but actually increases the magnitude as well.
An EMP is actually created when gamma particles from a nuclear explosion interact with the earth’s atmosphere at a sufficient altitude to cause a uniform disturbance in the earth’s magnetic field. It is the fluctuations of the earth’s magnetic field that causes the EMP and not the nuclear explosion itself. If the detonation occurs within the earth atmosphere, the gamma particles are absorbed by the air before creating a significant enough fluctuation in the earth’s magnetic field. Generally speaking, a detonation within the earth’s atmosphere will not produce a significant EMP beyond the actual radius of the nuclear blast. In other words, the radiation will kill you before the EMP fries your I-pod.
To be most effective, the detonation needs to be outside the earth’s atmosphere—even higher than the International Space Station and many satellites. This allows the gamma rays to interact with the earth’s atmosphere (and magnetic field) over a broad area at roughly the exact same time.
We could spend time discussing the three different types of EMPs generated by a nuclear detonation (E1, E2, & E3), but suffice it to say that E1 tends to quickly damage sensitive electronics, E2 is slower and not so much of a threat with modern fuses and surge protectors, and E3 is slow but massive and turns the earth’s magnetic field and any long continuous conductors (long-distance power lines) into a huge electrical generator—overpowering surge protection and destroying connected transformer equipment on either end of the line. Individuals tend to be concerned with the E1 pulse and infrastructure professionals tend to be concerned with the E3 pulse.
Consumer Technology Risks:
Most people think that anything with a computer chip will be wiped out by an EMP attack. The findings of the commission who produced the CNI Report actually prove otherwise. While the most sensitive equipment almost always failed, the failure was sometimes resolved with a re-boot, or with the replacement of a few damaged parts. Due to the unpredictability of the EMP effects, we can assume that many televisions and radios would still work and public broadcasting capabilities of one degree or another will likely be available—if not immediately, then shortly after an event for as long as power can be supplied for the broadcast. This can also be attributed to the fact that the strength of the EMP will vary from one place to another. For example, the further north you travel, the more intense the earth’s magnetic field and resulting EMP. You could expect the impact felt in New York would be more intense than that of Atlanta.
According to the CNI Report, modern automobiles are not nearly as susceptible to EMP as previously thought. It seems that while equipment and circuitry has become more sensitive, manufacturers have also beefed up the shielding on these components to reduce electromagnetic interference from non-EMP sources thus reducing susceptibility to an actual EMP. According to the report, only 10% of the vehicles on the road will stop functioning even temporarily after an EMP and one third of all vehicles won’t even suffer any nuisance failures such as a blown fuse or damaged radio (pg. 115 of the report). The risk here is still significant, but mostly overstated when compared to other risks. For instance, we’ve all seen what one accident does to rush-hour traffic. Now imagine 10% of the cars on the road shutting down at the same time—accidents would result and gridlock would be intense on the major highways—stranding even those with operable vehicles. But if your car was parked at work at the time of an EMP, chances are you would be able to start your car and at least attempt to drive home.
What are the Real Risks:
To put it simply, there are really two big threats we face as a society when it comes to EMPs. The first involves the entire electric grid as long-distance power lines convert the slower E3 pulse into extremely high-voltage power surges. These surges subsequently blow out transformers at either end of the lines and render the grid virtually useless until these custom-designed transformers can be repaired or replaced. Based upon the current rate of production for these transformers worldwide, it would take 20 years to replace all the high-capacity transformers in the US power grid (see report pg 49). Now imagine the difficulties of trying to make these repairs in a society that has collapsed.
The other significant threat posed by EMP lies in a commonly used automated control system called supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA). In essence, SCADA systems are similar your typical computer except that they are designed for specific uses—such as monitoring and controlling our electric grid, telecommunications infrastructure, oil and gas transmission lines, and even our water treatment plants. Under the testing conducted by the EMP Commission, every SCADA system failed to one degree or another (see report pg. 6). While some failures might be as simple to fix as rebooting, others would permanently disable a particular control unit. Taken together at the exact same time, this combination of minor and major failures becomes catastrophic to whatever infrastructure these SCADA units control.
The Reality of a Post-EMP Attack:
Obviously, the risks to our electrical and utility infrastructures are sufficient to categorize an EMP attack as TEOTWAWKI. However, the picture painted by most EMP alarmists doesn’t do us any favors as we consider our own personal preparations. I’m convinced that many preparations are either completely ignored, or resources are allocated in less-effective ways because we haven’t focused clearly on what a post-EMP society will look like.
First of all, the lights will likely go out; and for most of the grid they will stay out for a long time. However, most of the cars we drive will keep working with minor electrical problems. Most gas-powered generators will start up, and as long as the back-up power supply holds out, we might even have land-line and perhaps even cell phone telecommunications. If service stations have back-up power generation, then gas will still be pumping (plan on paying with cash though) until the tanks run dry. A national priority will be getting the gasoline distribution lines back up and running and with back-up power at key points, this could be accomplished in a matter of weeks or months. If we can get the gasoline flowing, then harvesting equipment will work, the food supply will begin flowing again, and crews will be able to repair the electrical grid.
Don’t get me wrong, an EMP attack would be catastrophic and would probably be the worst attack ever to affect our nation. Millions would die as a result, but I don’t expect it to be the end-game that some make it out to be. It should be entirely survivable for a well-informed and well-prepared groups and individuals.
Lessons for Preppers:
Preparing for an EMP can be overwhelming—especially when one fully grasps our reliance upon technology. Few of us are in a position to buy and move to a resource-rich piece of farmland and then be able to plow, plant, and harvest a decent crop with nothing but 19th century farm implements. The good news is that even after an EMP, society may remain intact—at least initially. And just like we see in the novel Patriots, some areas of the country can be expected to escape societal collapse indefinitely. For those of us who can’t relocate to a retreat property, the proper selection of our current residence can play a significant role in how we might fare after an EMP attack. Here are some considerations:
- Do you know where your power comes from? How far does it travel before it gets to you? Hydroelectric, nuclear, and wind -powered generators will likely be back online soon and have enough supplied fuel to run indefinitely. If you live close enough to one of these, then less equipment needs to be repaired before getting your town or city back online.
- Do you know where your water comes from? How much treatment is required to make it suitable for human consumption? Those living in mountainous areas will likely see minimal impact to their water supply after an EMP. Fresh gravity-fed water usually requires less chemical treatment and no electrical pumps to fill water storage tanks. Those living in flat areas and who rely upon treated river or ground water pumped into water towers will likely suffer the most from water shortages after an EMP. Hygiene-related diseases will spread quickly; and if you also happen to live in a relatively dry climate, then dehydration deaths will soar as well.
- Do you know where your gasoline comes from? Do you live close to a refinery, or does your fuel come from a combination of pipelines and tanker trucks. If you live close to a major gas pipeline terminal then your location will likely be better supplied than areas located off the main trunk lines. Refining capacity will be limited and gasoline will be rationed, but expect those towns closest to the source to be in better shape than those further away and to be among the first areas where order is restored—if lost.
- Do you know where your food comes from and could your area be food self-sufficient if needed? Those living on the fringes of America’s bread basket will be better off than those living in the large cities on the East Coast. Your grocery store has about three days worth of food without an EMP and about three hours worth of food with an EMP. Regional food distribution warehouses carry about 30 days worth of food—much of which is dependent upon refrigeration. Do you know how close you live to one of these regional warehouses? Living close to the regional food distribution centers could buy you and your town some time, but the best solution is to live close to a productive agricultural region—supplemented with your own stored food. The apple you eat today could have been picked 3,000 miles away almost 8 months ago. It has been stored in one of these warehouses in a carefully climate-controlled environment. How will your location be affected by a lack of modern food distribution?
- Do you know the kind of people who live in your area? Not all demographics are created equal when it comes to EMPs. Do you live in an area where people are looking for an excuse to riot or loot or do you find yourself among hardworking, religious people who tend to support each other? Notice the different responses between a tornado hitting a small town in Oklahoma and a flooded neighborhood in New Orleans, or even something as inconsequential as a national basketball championship in Los Angeles? Not all big cities are created equal and not all small towns are created equal either. If there is a large number of welfare-dependent residents in rental housing nearby, I would seriously consider moving. A demographic with a low-income, highly liberal population will pose different threats than a demographic with a high-income, conservative population after an EMP. Populations who support a larger role of government in providing security and livelihood tend to react negatively when neither is provided on demand. A good resource to analyze these risks on a state by state and county by county basis is the book Strategic Relocation
by Joel Skousen.
When it’s all said and done, we need to accurately understand the threats we are preparing for in order to make wise decisions regarding our limited resources. An EMP would be catastrophic for sure; but the reality of life “post-EMP” is likely to be much different than the most-common pictures being painted these days. Do your own due diligence, research the risks and how they affect you specifically, and you will be much better off than just taking the arm-chair advice of even the loudest prognosticators—this author included.
I have been a follower of your blog for a couple of years now and find it to be the best source of self-sufficiency information on the Web. You and your readers have provided me with a wealth of information that would have otherwise taken a lifetime to research on my own. –and for that, I thank you and all those who took the time to contribute.
While the plethora of advice handed out on a daily basis is extremely helpful, the one thing that I have found to be sparse is the first hand accounts of failure. A wise mentor once told me that no one learns from “trial and right,” and he was correct, the best way to learn is by “trial and error.” Unfortunately, I have had my fill of error lately.
Thus, I thought I would share all the things that went wrong over the past year and a half as my family attempted to develop a retreat for a bug out location in the country (we live in the city) with two other families. I hope this helps others who may find themselves in a similar situation.
The main problems encountered:
1. Although the adults agreed to the general goal of developing a self-sufficient retreat and the various components that would be required to sufficiently make the property a true bug out location, each had different ideas on the sense of urgency, priorities, responsibilities, and methods of doing things. This resulted in a tremendous waste of time and resources; numerous projects started, but never finished, or simply not done well. Failures outnumbered successes 10:1.
2. The young adult children of one family did not contribute and were allowed to not contribute. When the parents were confronted, they reassured us, “we will talk to them.” The “talk” never happened. This led to a significant level of resentment by the children of the other two families.
3. Dogs of one family were poorly trained and supervised. The owners did nothing to remedy the problems encountered. These dogs dug up fresh plantings on several occasions and set us back an entire season. Much worse, when the gate to the chicken coup was not shut properly one day, the chickens got out and the dogs killed most of them just when they were beginning to lay well. This set us back eight months.
4. Two families did not live at the retreat full time and were only able to tend to the property and garden on weekends. We learned the hard way that there is simply not enough hours in a week to work full time, raise children, and tend to a second property on weekends. The result was severe burn out by those of us living in the city, and a one year backlog on projects for our city homes. Life doesn’t stop just because you decide to develop a retreat.
5. Only one family took firearms seriously, taking all of the advice one can read on your blog and not only taking professional training, but practicing on a regular basis to master each and every firearm by every member of the family. Another family bought a shotgun and a box of ammo, which was promptly parked in a closet, and the third family has yet to get around to it. The main issue here is that these latter two are not the folks I want watching my back in a SHTF scenario.
6. One family thought they could “buy survival.” When the going got tough, they would offer to pay for equipment and supplies instead of showing up and getting their hands dirty. This is also the family that sincerely believes that having all the stuff (solar oven, camp washer, propane stove, cases of Mountain House[long term storage food], Berkey water filter, etc.) means they are prepared. This resulted in resentment by the two families that did most of the hard labor.
7. Only one of the families actually accumulated two years worth of food & supplies (the agreed upon goal for each family), the other two families have six months or less. This was the last straw for me as it became apparent that the other families expected to survive off the one, if they ran out.
By now you can guess which of the families described is mine. After a year and a half of spending each and every weekend in the dirt, working from sun up to sun down, we just up and quit being part of the retreat a couple of weeks ago. No amount of discussion and compromise could rectify the problems we encountered, and I have no words for the extreme frustration we felt and still feel. It has been a real learning experience as these other families are not strangers; we have been close friends for over 20 years.
Our investment of sweat, time, and money yielded us with only the experience of our trials, and we are right back where we started from, living in the city with a very small garden, wondering what to do next.
In hindsight, we should have:
1. Developed a project plan that listed all of the projects, broken down by tasks, assigned priorities, and most importantly, had sufficient resources allocated to them.
2. Defined up front who does what, when & how, and who pays for what. It should also include consequences for failure to live up to expectations.
3. Agreed upon a code of conduct with everyone pledging to uphold it. Even to the point of having everyone sign a symbolic contract.
4. Had a formal schedule with built in breaks (rotating weekends off or something).
5. Had everyone on the same page as to the sense of urgency. Nothing gets done if everyone has different ideas of how important what you’re doing is.
Lastly, the most important lesson learned. Preparedness doesn’t come in a box. It comes from hard work, from getting your hands dirty, and teaching yourself new skills. There’s a lot of trial and error and the important thing is to not give up even when everyone around you is letting you down. Preparedness comes from time. Time learning and practicing. While this experience has been a complete failure, at least we learned what not to do as we plan out our next attempt.
Thank the Lord that my family still believes in me and what we need to do. Wish us luck. - KJ
F.G. forwarded this news story: Bank 'walkaways' from foreclosed homes are a growing, troubling trend. If foresaw buyers walking away from houses, but not banks!
A piece that I missed from earlier this month: Banking system like South Sea bubble, says senior Bank of England official
Reader MAM sent this fascinating piece from Columbia Journalism Review: Goldman Sachs to the Forefront. The plot thickens!
LJ on England spotted this: Deflation fears as the underlying rate of inflation reaches its lowest level since 1948
Items from The Economatrix:
Lawmakers Blast Paulson for His Response to Crisis
Philadelphia Suspends Payment of Contracts
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fiscal Ruin of Western World Beckons
Ron Paul and Jim DeMint Take on the Fed
Four Wall Street Banks Reject California IOUs
Bank of America Earns $2.4 Billion in 2Q, Ahead of Estimates
General Electric Profits Drop 47% in 2Q
Unemployment Tops 10% in 15 States, DC
Many Predict US Financial Collapse in September "What will this fall really bring? It is not too far away so we shall soon know. Unfortunately, it may make last fall look pretty tame. When the government answers economic distress by preparing for the worst, then the worst may very well be what happens."
John ("The Midwest Hiker") reminded me that The Discovery Channel will begin to air "The Colony" tonight (Tuesday, July 21) at 10 p.m. eastern time. John's comment: "As far as I can tell, is a show about an enclave of survivors rebuilding and struggling after a major TEOTWAWKI event; a plague of catastrophic proportions. I have some doubts about the technical accuracy of the show--the survivors, after all, are living in a 'compound' in L.A.--but even so, the show employs a talented cast of 'survivors,' everyone from a rocket scientist to an electrician. This should at least be worth the casual perusal of most SurvivalBlog readers."
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F.G. flagged this: How Buck Knives Decided to Move Headquarters "In late 2004, C.J. Buck made one of his toughest calls as CEO of knife-maker Buck Knives. He decided to relocate the company from San Diego, California, where it had been headquartered for 62 years, to Post Falls, Idaho." BTW, they still offer their "forever" warranty.
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Schiff on BHO's Universal Health Care Plan: Prescription for Disaster
"You’ve got a fast car,
Is it fast enough so we can fly away?
We gotta make a decision,
Leave tonight, Or live and die this way." - Tracy Chapman, from her song "Fast Car", 1991
Monday, July 20, 2009
One of my readers sent me this news item from southwestern England: Announcing the Release of ‘Can Totnes and District Feed Itself?’. That got me thinking. Perhaps they can feed themselves. But if things fall apart, how can they feed the Golden Horde from Bristol, Bournemouth, Plymouth, Poole, Gloucester, Cheltenham, Bath, Exeter, Swindon, Torbay, and the other cities of southern England? And let's not forget greater London. Most of those city dwellers will want to head for "the countryside", but how many urban refugees can the small towns absorb?
Parenthetically, I'll mention that the Rawles family name originated from southwest England, not too far from Totnes. (Well, actually a bit farther west, in eastern Cornwall.) My progenitor left England around 1700, in part because he considered it "crowded." That was when the nation's population was under 6 million people. It is now more than 51 million. (To give American readers a sense of scale: That is roughly the combined population of California and New York, but all shoehorned into an area the size of the state of Alabama. Yikes! That does not provide a great prospect for self-sufficiency--especially if sans grid power. I wonder what my gr.gr.gr.gr.gr.grandfather John William Rawles would have thought about the modern-day self-sufficiency conjecture in Devonshire? He'd probably advise being on a tall ship on the next tide.
There are several thousand SurvivalBlog readers in England. My advice for any of you that are genuinely concerned about preparedness and self-sufficiency: Take the Gap. As I've just illustrated, the demographics are against you. The climate is also against you. (It is a cold, wet climate.) The gun and knife laws are increasingly against you. So face it: Your chances of surviving a grid-down collapse are quite slim in England. If anything, the nation is a prime candidate for a tremendous die-off, possibly to pre-1700 level population levels. (That would be a self-sufficient population level!)
Even if you live way out near the Brecon Beacons or in the Yorkshire Dales and have James Herriott's family for your next door neighbors, there just isn't enough "countryside" to go around. In a true "worst case", every town and village will get mobbed by the yobs. My advice is straightforward and perhaps a bit blunt: You should emigrate to a lightly-populated corner of the United States, New Zealand, or perhaps Belize, as soon as possible. By doing so, you'll dramatically increase your family's chances of survival, and you'll also enjoy greater personal liberty.
The Peak Oil crowd--both in the US and in the UK--is well-intentioned, intelligent, and articulate. It is also sadly predominated by folks that are hopelessly naive. It is all well and good to talk about farmer's markets, sustainable agriculture, green technology, and kumbaya. But we live in the real world, where if the lights go out, it won't take too long for people to get hungry and start hunting two-legged big game. And in England, where there are few guns, and the few there are predominantly owned illegally by gangsters rather han legally owned by the good folk. So the self-defense equation will come down to nothing but brute force. Take my advice and take the gap!
Mr. Rawles,
Within our Christian survivalist group in Washington State, we use your novel Patriots, as a primer for friends. Keep up the great job you do.
Please consider the following statement with your readers. I believe that an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack by satellite can happen to the U.S. without any notice at all, and many nations already have the satellites in order to produce the end result. This is not meant to scare, but just an observation on how our great country can be taken back to the 1800s technology and a Third World country economic level, in a microsecond. Please consider my train of thought on this line of reasoning which I send you. I think you "have" to agree that this method is so, so simple.
Can the U.S. be hit without any notice whatsoever by an EMP attack? Yes, and the answer is in the line of thinking to follow. Before you can read this reasoning statement post to it's conclusion, we could be back to the 1800s in technology. And by the Congressional report of 2008, 90% of Americans could be dead in 12 months [following a nationwide EMP attack.]
I just didn't realize how many satellites were orbiting the earth at 200 miles up and from so many different nations until today.
Another question to ask oneself: Does another country hate the U.S. to the extent to want to destroy us? Yes, several nations.
Can EMP be delivered by [a nuclear weapon onboard] an already existing and orbiting satellite to devastate our economy? The answer is yes. We’re on borrowed time, preppers.
For a comprehensive assessment of likely damages to electronics equipment and electrical infrastructure, see the 2008 Critical National Infrastructures Report written by the EMP Commission of the Federal government.
A cataclysmic attack throws the United States back to the dark ages, with no electricity, no communication or transportation networks, and no medicines. The most vulnerable members of society—the very young and the very old—begin to die off first, but soon hundreds of thousands of people, and then millions of people, begin dying. Rogue bands of lawless predators, living by rule of force rather than by rule of law, prey on weakened communities. The government, crippled, can’t come to anyone’s rescue. And all it takes is a single bomb detonated high above the atmosphere, two hundred miles above the continental United States.
At first thought, it might seem far-fetched to imagine a single bomb wiping out the entire country. But it wouldn’t be the power of the explosion, per se, that would cause the problem. Instead, the real problem would be the EMP generated by the explosion. Traveling at the speed of light, the EMP would act like an enormous ripple in the earth’s electromagnetic field. As that ripple hits electrical systems, it would get coupled and be way beyond anything hat a typical circuit breaker could handle. William R. Forstchen, the author of the popular novel One
Second After in an article titled "EMP 101" A Basic Primer & Suggestions for Preparedness writes of high altitude EMP: “This energy surge will destroy all delicate electronics in your home, even as it destroys all the major components all the way back to the power company’s generators and the phone company’s main relays,” Forstchen writes. “In far less than a millisecond, the entire power grid of the United States, and all that it supports will be destroyed.” And if the power grid goes, then everything goes.
In July 1962, a 1.44 megaton United States nuclear test in space, 400 km (250 miles) above the Pacific Ocean, called the Starfish Prime test, demonstrated to nuclear scientists that the magnitude and effects of a high altitude nuclear explosion were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link
According to Wikipedia, there are several major factors control the effectiveness of a nuclear EMP weapon. These are:
1. The altitude of the weapon when detonated;
2. The yield and construction details of the weapon;
3. The distance from the weapon when detonated;
4. Geographical depth or intervening geographical features;
5. The local strength of the Earth's magnetic field.
A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) article stated that an EMP "can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. A large device detonated at 400–500 km (250 to 312 miles) over Kansas would affect all of the continental U.S. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point.
Could a Satellite with a nuclear payload already be orbiting Earth? So let’s ask the question, do any satellites orbit at 200 miles above Earth and how many countries have satellites at that altitude? Look at North Korea and Iran, Why are they so interested in building small-scale nuclear missiles? Only one model fits. Forstchen says: ”It’s the fact that the U.S. is so vulnerable that our enemies are even contemplating such an attack." Iran is in the space race. North Korea is in the space race.
Earth is ensnared today in a thick spider web of satellite orbits. Satellites with different assignments fly at different orbital altitudes. Russian and American navigation satellites orbit from 100 to 300 miles altitude. Civilian photography satellites, such as the American Landsat and the French SPOT, orbit at altitudes ranging from 300 to 600 miles. American NOAA and Russian Meteor weather satellites are at these same altitudes.
Does this seem too difficult for other nations? No. Just load up your nuclear weapon payload, orbit it as long as desired, and then hit the button when the satellite is above Kansas.
If Osama bin Laden - or the dictators of North Korea or Iran - could destroy America as a twenty-first century society and superpower, would they be tempted to try? Given their track records and stated hostility to the United States, we have to operate on the assumption that they would. That assumption would be especially frightening if this destruction could be accomplished with a single attack involving just one high yield nuclear weapon, and if the nature of the attack would mean that its perpetrator might not be immediately or easily identified. Unfortunately, such a scenario is not far-fetched. Frank Gaffney, in an essay titled: "EMP: America's Achilles' Heel" wrote: "...a report issued last summer by a blue-ribbon, Congressionally-mandated commission, a single specialized nuclear weapon delivered to an altitude of a few hundred miles over the United States by a ballistic missile would be "capable of causing catastrophe for the nation." The source of such a cataclysm might be considered the ultimate "weapon of mass destruction" (WMD) - yet it is hardly ever mentioned in the litany of dangerous WMDs we face today."
JWR Replies: Iran and North Korea are currently developing fission bombs, not fusion (hydrogen) bombs. A large fission bomb would produce an order of magnitude less EMP than a typical fusion bomb. High Altitude (space-based) EMP with a hydrogen bomb is presently a capability of only a handful of nation states. China is the biggest threat, in my opinion. As for fusion bombs concealed inside satellites, that is conceivable, notwithstanding the Space-Based weapons treaty. (The US and the former Soviet Union were signatories, but China was not.)
In my opinion, of far greater concern is EMP from a nuclear bomb on-board an aircraft. Assuming detonation at a high altitude, detonated suicidally, inside the aircraft, rather than being dropped) that would provide a broad line of sight (LOS) for EMP to provide a "footprint" radius of perhaps more than 200 miles, and far beyond line of sight (BLOS) indirect EMP coupling (via power lines and telephone cables) to a much larger radius. I first discussed LOS calculation for EMP in SurvivalBlog back in October of 2005, and I wrote the following more detailed piece in April 2007. Since it is relevant, I'll post it here again:
The [LOS] answer is both easy and impossible to determine. Let me explain. First, the easy part. The basic line of sight (LOS) footprint range calculation is really simple. It is essentially the same as the calculation that is used to determine the maximum effective range for a VHF or UHF radio onboard an aircraft. Referring back to one of my unclassified notebooks from my Electronic Warfare (5M) course at Fort Huachuca, I find: Assuming level terrain, the maximum potential radius of LOS in nautical miles (nmi) = square root of the emitter's altitude (in feet) x 1.056. Hence, that would be 149.3 nmi at 20,000 feet above sea level (ASL), or 191.8 nmi at 33,000 feet ASL. (A typical jet or C-130's service ceiling.) SurvivalBlog reader "Flighter" mentioned: "...some of the larger business jets such as the Airbus ACJ, Gulfstream, Challenger, and Citation are certificated to fly at or above 41,000 feet. The Sino Swearingen SJ30, is perhaps the highest flyer with a certificated ceiling of 49,000 feet. Hypothetically, a dangerous parabolic flight profile could with supplemental oxygen for the flight crew and perhaps even supplemental JATO rockets might push apogee to 75,000 feet in a few aircraft models. (Hey, it would be a suicidal flight anyway.) That is probably the highest altitude that could be expected for a terrorist to touch off a nuke--at least in the near future. That would equate to a footprint with a 280 mile radius. Oh, yes, they might also get really creative and use an unmanned balloon. (The word's record for those was 51.82 km (170,000 feet / 32.2 miles) But that is highly unlikely. What is likely? A ground level detonation. The EMP footprint of fission bomb detonated near ground level on dead level ground (plains country) might be no more than a 45 mile radius.
Now on to the part that is impossible to predict: long range linear coupling. Because telephone lines, power lines, and railroad tracks will act as giant antennas for EMP, the EMP waveforms will be coupled through those structures for many, many miles beyond line of sight (BLOS). Just how many miles BLOS is not yet known. I believe that if it were not for the advent of the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 (which banned atmospheric and space nuclear weapons tests), the DOD and AEC would have had the opportunity to conduct far more extensive tests to further characterize the panoply of potential EMP effects. But those test bans have kept us in the dark. In the absence of practical data, there is a lot guesswork, even among "applied physics" expert nuclear weapons physicists. We may not know the full extent of the EMP risk until after we see that bright flash on the horizon.
For planning purposes, you can probably safely assume that if you are living more than 280 miles from a major city, then your vehicle electronics will be safe from a terrorist nuke's EMP. (Since you will be BLOS to the EMP footprint of a nuke that is set off below 75,000 feet ASL.) Your home electronics, however, anywhere in CONUS might be at risk due to long range linear coupling--that is if your house is on grid power. This, BTW, is one more good reason for you to set up your own off-grid self sufficient photovoltaic (PV) power system. The folks at Ready Made Resources. offer free consulting on PV system sizing, site selection, and design.
There may be other high altitude delivery methods that I haven't considered, that would provide a broader LOS. But at least the hydrogen bomb club appears fairly small, so there is less risk of widespread EMP . It is conceivable that a Russian fusion bomb might have fallen into terrorist hands during the chaotic 1990s, but if one had, then it probably would have been used by now. Thus, at present, the terrorist and rogue state threat is just for fission bombs, which makes the EMP threat much smaller and more localized.
Jim,
I read the article regarding BlueRhino and Amerigas ("Companies are now shorting (cheating) on propane tank refills"). I guess one could argue both sides of the issue. My personal opinion is that while the practice is sleazy, there's nothing illegal going on, as the canisters are marked with the amount of propane they contain. It's not unlike potato chips or breakfast cereal sold "by weight not by volume". Manufacturers all over the place put their product in packaging far larger than the actual contents would require.
Like I said, it's sleazy, so except for one or two barbecue "emergencies" I haven't used an exchange service in years. I take my tanks down to a local "KOA" type campground and have them refilled there. For several dollars less than the grocery store exchange price I get my personally-owned tank completely refilled. Many U-Haul locations also refill propane tanks. Mine offers "big tank" pricing if you bring in multiple small (20 lb.) tanks, making it an even better deal than the campground.
My advice to anyone who uses 20 lb. propane tanks is this: Go back to BlueRhino or Amerigas one more time and cherry-pick a nice, new tank. The manufacture date is stamped on the handle/safety ring that surrounds the valve. Look for the latest date possible, since these 20 lb. tanks must be less than 12 years old to be refilled legally. There are lots of 10 year old tanks floating around and you don't want one of those. So get the newest, cleanest tank you can and then keep it - it's yours. Have it refilled at a campground or U-Haul and never get ripped off by an exchange outfit again. - Matt R.
Joan M. sent this: WHO says flu pandemic spreading too fast to count. "...the H1N1 flu pandemic has been the fastest-moving pandemic ever and that it is now pointless to ask countries to count every case."
Britain prepares for 65,000 deaths from swine flu
Swine Flu Threatens Muslim Hajj Season
Swine Flu to force 1 in 8 to take time off work sick
Swine flu sweeping world at 'unprecedented speed': WHO "In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks."
Swine Flu: Why You Should Still Be Worried
Experts: Swine Flu Is Waning, Will Return In The Fall
DD sent this article: 23 metro areas where the recession is finally coming in for a landing. It includes a fascinating animated state-by-state map showing waves of recession since 1994. Pay no attention to their conclusions about incipient recovery. They are dreaming! The current recession is not a typical dip in the business cycle. It was caused by a collapse of the global credit market. This will last a long time, and may very well become a full-blown depression.
Reader KAF flagged this: CIT collapse could ripple through retail industry. They are already begging for a Federal bailout.
SurvivalBlog regular Karen H. sent us these links:
Obama's Stimulus Plan Slow to Trickle Through Economy "For the moment, the initial measure has shown little impact. The net worth of households has fallen almost 22 percent, by almost $14 trillion, since 2007, to the lowest level in five years."
California's budget gap won't close for long. "It will be horrible next year," said economist Steve Levy of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.
GG spotted this Tass news agency article: Russia’s GDP reduces by over 10% in 1st half 2009
The BATFE apparently can't understand the plain meaning of the 10th Amendment. Without citing any genuine justification, the ATF is dictating to manufacturers and dealers to ignore the newly-enacted state law. But in actuality, they should ignore the ATF. Federal jurisdiction over FFL-licensed manufacture and sale of firearms is based on the which established Federal jurisdiction over interstate commerce. If a gun doesn't cross a state line then that is intrastate commerce, and hence outside of Federal jurisdiction. The ATF director needs to read the Tenth Amendment, and the precedent-setting Lopez decision, and take a chill pill. No nexus means no jurisdiction. American gun owners: Tell the Feds to take a hike!
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From Karen H.: Ahmadinejad: Iran will "bring down" Western foes
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Cheryl sent this one: Potato fungus update. (Cheryl says: "I'm having a similar problem with my tomatoes as are some surrounding neighbors.")
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Reader MK sent us a link to an article about onPoint Tactical's training: Survival School: Why more Americans are learning to pick locks, bust out of handcuffs, and avoid surveillance
News from Nanny State Britannia: Kent Police clamp down on tall photographers and UK Police Raid Party After Seeing "All-Night" Tag On Facebook (Thanks to Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large) and Andrew D., respectively, for hose two links.)
"You can say ‘stop’ or ‘alto’ or use any other word you think will work, but I’ve found that a large bore muzzle pointed at someone’s head is pretty much the universal language." - Clint Smith, founder of Thunder Ranch
Sunday, July 19, 2009
A recent news headline in the English newspaper The Independent caught my eye: Paulson reveals US concerns of breakdown in law and order. I only rarely post entire newspaper articles. But this article is particularly significant to the SurvivalBlog readership, and since it is brief, I'm posting it in full:
The Bush administration and Congress discussed the possibility of a breakdown in law and order and the logistics of feeding US citizens if commerce and banking collapsed as a result of last autumn's financial panic, it was disclosed yesterday.
Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since leaving office, the former Treasury secretary Hank Paulson said it was important at the time not to reveal the extent of officials' concerns, for fear it would "terrify the American people and lead to an even bigger problem".
Mr. Paulson testified to the House Oversight Committee on the Bush administration's unpopular $700bn (£426bn) bailout of Wall Street, which was triggered by the failure of Lehman Brothers last September. In the days that followed, a run on some of the safest investment vehicles in the financial markets threatened to make it impossible for people to access their savings.
Paul Kanjorski, a Pennsylvania Democrat, asked Mr. Paulson to reveal details of officials' concerns, which were relayed to Congress in hasty conference calls last year. The calls included discussion of law and order and whether it would be possible to feed the American people, and for how long, according to Mr. Kanjorski.
"In a world where information can flow, money can move with the speed of light electronically, I looked at the ripple effect, and looked at when a financial system fails, a whole country's economic system can fail," Mr. Paulson said. "I believe we could have gone back to the sorts of situations we saw in the Depression. I try not to use hyperbole. It's impossible to prove now since it didn't happen."
The Oversight committee is investigating the takeover of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, a deal forged in the desperate weekend that Lehman Brothers failed, and which later required government support because of Merrill's spiraling losses.
Mr. Paulson defended putting pressure on Bank of America when it had last-minute doubts about the deal in December. Not to have done so could have rekindled the "financial havoc" the bailout had calmed.
(Special thanks to the publishers of The Independent.)
Hmm... This is certainly food for thought and grounds for further research. It notable to see the difference between public statements and what actually goes on behind closed doors. Compare the foregoing testimony with these excerpts from Paulson's widely-circulated press release on October 14, 2008:
"America is a strong nation. We are a confident and optimistic people. Our confidence is born out of our long history of meeting every challenge we face. Time and time again our nation has faced adversity and time and time again we have overcome it and risen to new heights. This time will be no different...
...President Bush has directed me to consider all necessary steps to restore confidence and stability to our financial markets and get credit flowing again. Ten days ago Congress gave important new tools to the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC to meet the challenges posed to our economy. My colleagues and I are working creatively and collaboratively to deploy these tools and direct our powers at this disruption to our economy.
Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the US economy. We regret having to take these actions. Today's actions are not what we ever wanted to do – but today's actions are what we must do to restore confidence to our financial system...
...While many banks have suffered significant losses during this period of market turmoil, many others have plenty of capital to get through this period, but are not positioned to lend as widely as is necessary to support our economy. Our goal is to see a wide array of healthy institutions sell preferred shares to the Treasury, and raise additional private capital, so that they can make more loans to businesses and consumers across the nation. At a time when events naturally make even the most daring investors more risk-averse, the needs of our economy require that our financial institutions not take this new capital to hoard it, but to deploy it...
...These three steps significantly strengthen financial institutions and improve their access to funding, enabling them to increase financing of the consumption and business investment that drive U.S. economic growth. Market participants here and around the world can take confidence from the powerful actions taken today and our broad commitment to the health of the global financial system.
We are acting with unprecedented speed taking unprecedented measures that we never thought would be necessary. But they are necessary to get our economy back on an even keel, and secure the confidence and future of our markets, our economy and the economic well-being of all Americans.
By December of 2008 Paulson was browbeating Bank of America's CEO Ken Lewis into a shotgun wedding with Merrill Lynch. Paulson now claims he did so, in part, because he was worried about a banking meltdown and the possibility of what we would call TEOTWAWKI. Perhaps he was reading too much SurvivalBlog, or someone gave him a copy of my novel and he was losing sleep over it.
What is to be learned from all this? Here is Rawles Axiom #1 on Political Awareness: Don't trust or even pay much attention to what public officials say. Instead, concentrate on what they do, and more importantly on the subsequent results and consequences of what they do. Words don't mean much to politicians. They all too frequently tailor their words to match their particular audience, with little regard to honesty or forthrightness.
If you think that I've over-reacted to the preceding cited quotes, take a moment to consider that this is the same Henry Paulson that had publicly declared just a few months before (on March 16, 2008): "I've got great confidence in our financial market, our financial institutions. Our markets are resilient and flexible. Our institutions, our investment banks are strong,"
Hello Mr. Rawles,
I love the Blog! Here is a tip for those readers who would like to save money and their backs by following Carla's soap recipe. Since I have a cat, I have been using the bargain basement cat litter that come in rectangular HDPE buckets. Rather than throw them out, why not save money by not buying 5 gallon buckets? Of course, one needs a cat owner who uses this product, but with the mess this economy is in, frugal relatives, friends and neighbors may have some. One could make up a smaller batch of her detergent, it would be easier to move around the laundry room, ( thus saving wear-and-tear on the back), they have re-sealable lids and carrying handles, and they are square! These are not safe for food storage, but I have used them for tool carrying, ammo storage (since the Federal government seems to be destroying surplus ammo cans), and other uses. And since square containers pack into trunks and the rear of Bug-Out Vehicles (BOVs) better than round containers, thus freeing up space, they may allow you to carry that little bit of extra gear when you need to Get Out of Dodge G.O.O.D. They also stack Vertically! This may sound like a trivial thing, but as a former U.S. Navy Submariner who served aboard two different Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) subs, I know the importance of using every square inch of space. And a penny saved is a silver dime bought! Hope this sparks other ideas for these containers among the readers. God's blessings on you and your House. - Bubblehead Les
Dear JWR:
I am a new reader to survival blog and glean new info daily. We are making preparations slowly to Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.), ASAP! Fortunately we do not have jobs to hold us down (husband is self employed and trying to start a web business) and I homeschool and raise our six kids. Unfortunately, the income is not steady and with 6 kids, we do not have as much money as we would like. But with God leading, anything is possible.
The reason for this letter is to add something to the very interesting article about the homemade laundry soap. I have been making our own soap for months now. But there is a way to make it in powder form if you prefer powder detergent:
1 bar Fels Naptha (or 2 bars of Ivory)
1 C Washing soda
1 C Borax
Grate the soap finely. You don't want big chunks. I use a hand grater, but I suppose you could use a food processor [that is designated for only non-food purposes]. This part takes a long time and is labor intensive.
Then add a cup each of the washing soda and borax. Mix well. I put it into a large plastic freezer bag for compact storage. Add 1 Tablespoon to each load, and get nice clean laundry.
A few things to be aware of: your soap won't suds up at all. That does not mean you have to add more soap. And clean clothes smell like nothing. You don't need added scent for clean clothes like most commercial laundry soaps. Also, if you want a softener, then add about a quarter cup of vinegar to the rinse. Your clothes won't smell like vinegar, but they will be nice and soft. You won't need a dryer sheet, either.
One last thing: Fels Naptha is a laundry bar. Meaning you can just rub the soap on a stain and watch it come out in the wash. I have tried it, and it does work. So buy an extra bar for stains instead of expensive pre-treaters like Oxy Clean. One bar will last a long time! - Anita
Reader Greg C. sent this: Larry Summers, White House Economic Advisor, cites Google search as progress. Greg's comment: "If this White House thinks that determining the fitness of the economy is as simple as looking at what people search for on Google, then we are in bigger trouble than we originally thought. I wonder if they are looking at how many people are searching for 'Economic Meltdown' or 'Revolution?'"
Thanks to Mark N. for this: The Next Global Financial Crisis: Public Debt. "The cloud of the global financial meltdown has not even cleared, yet another crisis of massive proportions looms on the horizon: global sovereign (public) debt."
Frequent content contributor "DD" sent these items:
Desperation Marketing: Christmas in July at K-Mart and Sears
Recession hits Harley-Davidson, Marriott (Harley's net income plunges 91%!)
Items from The Economatrix:
The Long-Term Budget Outlook
JPMorgan 2Q Profit Jumps 36%, Topping Forecasts. Cheryl's comment: "It takes money to make money, so they took our money and made their money." [Taxpayer money, that is.]
Where's The Outrage Over AIG's Latest Bonuses?
CIT Seeks Private Funds to Avoid Collapse
New Jobless Claims Down Sharply Last Week
F.G. alerted me to this article: Companies are now shorting (cheating) on propane tank refills.
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Linda P. pointed out a closeout sale on Bennington Flags (the official SurvivalBlog low-key meetup flag), at FlagGuys.com.
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Craig W. spotted this article from San Diego, California: They Carry Guns. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Much like a muscle that atrophies with disuse, any right that goes unexercised for many years devolves into a privilege, and eventually can even be redefined as a crime.
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A legislative alert from Gun Owners of America: A vote to protect your right to travel out-of-state with a firearm could come to a vote next week -- even as early as Monday (July 20th)! Senators John Thune and David Vitter are the sponsors of S. 845 -- a bill that will establish concealed carry reciprocity amongst the several states.This bill is being offered the bill as an
amendment (#1618) to the Department of Defense authorization bill (H.R. 2647). This provision will use the constitutional authority allowing Congress to enforce "full faith and credit"
across the country, so that each state respects the "public acts, records, and judicial proceedings" of every other state (Article IV). The benefit of the Thune/Vitter legislation is that --
unlike other, competing measures -- it would protect the right of any U.S. citizen to carry out of state (regardless of whether he possesses a permit), as long as he is authorized to carry in his home state. This is important because of states like Vermont and Alaska, where residents can carry concealed without prior approval or permission from the state... in other words, without a permit!
Please urge your Senators to vote yes on the Thune/Vitter concealed carry reciprocity amendment and no on any modifying amendments.
"Good luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Bad luck is when lack of preparation meets adversity." - Coach Darrel Royal
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
What would make someone want to make their own laundry detergent? It is so convenient to go to the store and get a ready made, nicely package, conveniently mixed, nice smelling, make your clothes fresher and your life better if you use me, laundry detergent. My husband and I have always had a preparedness mentality-we live 10 miles from a grocery store and 20 miles from a Wal-Mart. You don't just run up the street to buy a roll of toilet paper. We prepared for Y2K and have always thought "what if." We don't worry, for we know God is in control and is truly the provider, but feel he leaves it up to us to do the leg work.
[Some deleted, for brevity]
Not only am I preparing for my family, but I have neighbors that will ultimately need some help, extended family members that are not in the position financially to be able to stock up and hopefully enough to barter if necessary. So as I buy, it is on my mind "How far will this go to feed possibly 10-to-15 people?" Soup ingredients, meat extenders, et cetera are some of the things that will help to feed a lot on a little. Not wasting the money we have and are trying to save up, making sure I spend wisely for the money is of utmost importance.
I started looking for ways to "substitute" my own homemade items for those that we normally buy. Homemade mixes for Bisquick, brownies, rice mixes, etc., anything that saves money is on my lists. One of the most expensive-even though I would lean to the least expensive side-was laundry detergent. It is an item where you are literally throwing your money down the drain. I began to look on the web for ways to make my own, and lo and behold I came across a lot of formulas. I started making my own and have passed the recipe to many friends. They can't thank me enough! It is as good and in my humble opinion, better than the most expensive store-bought laundry detergent. When you figure the costs savings, it is outstanding! Even if you are not "into" preparedness, it is just a great way to save money in these harder times. I find my ingredients at the local Kroger's [grocery] store and one of the items can be bought at Wal-Mart, but for the few cents savings, unless I am going there for many more items, the time factor and extra mileage, it is just not worth it. Trying to buy laundry detergent in bulk, the storage problem and costs factor, is really diminished by making your own. I have tweaked the use part of this recipe to suit me, but will give you the total information and then let each decide on their own.
Homemade Laundry Detergent -- Makes Enough for About 180 Loads
1 Bar - Fels Naptha soap ($1.29 for a 5-1/2 ounce bar)
1 cup - Washing soda $3.99 55 ounce box (do not confuse this with baking soda)
1/2 cup - Borax ($3.49 for a 76 ounce box on sale price, regular price is $3.99) This is the old 20 Mule Team brand, and this can be found at Wal-Mart.)
1 - 5 gal. HDPE plastic utility bucket with lid. These are often available free from bakeries, or approximately $4-tio $5 at [Sam's Club or] Wal-Mart, or your local paint store)
Grate the Fels Naptha soap into small pieces. You can chop it with a knife, cheese grater, or food processor. Heat four quarts of water in a large, heavy saucepan on top of stove and add soap, stirring constantly till melted. This will take a while depending on the size of your grated pieces. Meanwhile, fill the five gallon bucket half full with warm water. Add the 1 cup of washing soda and the 1/2 cup of Borax and stir well. When soap is melted pour into bucket, then continue to fill bucket with warm water until full. Stir well and let sit overnight until cool. This "concentrate" will thicken as it sits. Stir before using. Now, I use this concentrate straight out of the bucket and use 1/3 cup per large load. The original instructions said to save an old laundry detergent container, fill half full with concentrate then add water to top. Shake and use 5/8ths cup per large load. Repeat till your concentrate is gone. This will give you 10 gallons of laundry detergent. That just seemed more trouble than necessary. So I use the concentrate as-is. No need to have to make room for another container. You will have enough leftover soda and Borax to make approximately five more buckets of detergent. You will have to buy more soap. The costs for one 5-gallon bucket (not including the bucket) is approximately $2.40. If you compared that to the expensive brand of concentrate @ $20.00 per container, just think of the savings and that is if your store bought container makes 180 loads! Since I don't buy the twenty dollar Tide brand, I'm not sure if that is for 180 loads, so the savings could be a lot more. $14.40 for a total of six 5-gallon buckets compared to $120 for six containers of Tide 2X concentrate. In a small space, enough to hold 1 box of Borax, 1 box of washing soda and 6 bars of Fels Naptha you can have better cleaning power than six containers of store bought laundry detergent. This will also save more than $100!
I have a niece that uses Ivory bar soap, which is cheaper than the Fels Naptha and is totally pleased with her product. The Borax and washing soda have many other household uses also, as the detergent would not. Making my own has gotten me hooked on doing many other things for myself. Why pay someone to do the mixing? It would be nice to put the savings into a jar, but there are too many other things that we need to get ready for when TEOTWAWKI comes along. It is good to look at my pantry that God has provided and know that my family will not go hungry. We can stay clean, one of the most important factors in hard times, thanks to many of the good articles that you have on the blog.
I just read today about using a 5 gallon bucket and making a washing "machine." We have many things that we still need, but are working on acquiring and every time there is a new entry marked off the list, it gives us a sense of security knowing that is one thing we won't have to worry about. We have encouraged others that we know are capable to do likewise. Not necessarily because they believe [in disaster preparedness] as we do, but to just be good stewards of what the Lord has given us. Whether it is an ice storm, which we have made it through several times comfortably, or tornado damage and electricity out for 4-to-5 days, we can survive easily. I'm thankful for all you folks who are teaching me what to do and how to do it. Saving money in small ways makes it easier to acquire more of the needful things. - Carla
Jim,
First, here's a link to an article on self defense considerations in Britain.
I prefer a variation on the pocket stick known as a koppo stick. A koppo stick is a pocket stick with a piece of cord that loops around the outside of the ring and middle fingers. This cord helps with stick retention and allows for open hand and gripping techniques.
I usually carry my koppo in my weak hand at the ready. This frees up my strong hand to draw my primary weapon and the cord retention system allows the weak hand to perform other tasks such as slide manipulation. Planned use of the stick is for primary weapon retention and to gain enough time/space to draw the primary weapon (if available and warranted).
Here is a page on how to convert a pocket flashlight into a koppo stick.
Here's the LED flashlight that I converted (available through Sears):
Finally, here's a YouTube video on the subject.
Enjoy! - Rick H.
Dear Mr. Rawles,
I've got something for the guy in suburban London. England is a rainy area - isn't´t it? So try this unbreakable umbrella.
And here´s something on video about how to use canes for self-defense.
Thank you! - Joe B.
Some impeccable logic from Vice President Joe Biden: ‘We Have to Go Spend Money to Keep From Going Bankrupt’
From Greg C.: Foreclosures at record high in first half 2009 despite aid
Frequent content contributor Karen H. sent the following items:
Port of Long Beach imports down 28.4%
Foreclosures rise 15% in the first half of 2009
Dem health RX a Poi$on Pill in NY - Terrifying 57% Tax looms for biggest earners.
Social Security spends $700,000 on Phoenix Conference
Industrial Production down 13.6%
Map of Hardest Hit Regions of Unemployment in the U.K.
Verleger Sees $20 Oil this Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut "Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger."
Items from The Economatrix:s
Food Prices Falling on US Stores
The five latest failures: Bank of Wyoming Failed (#53), First Piedmont Bank (#54), BankFirst (#55), Vinyard Bank (#56), and Temecula Valley Bank (#57). Gee, and we've been told that Wyoming was one of the states hurt the least by the recession...
Bankruptcy Filings Up 33% Over Past 12 Months
Reader Bill B. mentioned this piece by the author of the popular novel One
Second After, William R. Forstchen: "EMP 101" A Basic Primer & Suggestions for Preparedness
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Greg C. sent a link to a Rasmussen Reports article: The Audacity of Self-defense
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EMB spotted an interesting new site: GippersList.com. It is an alternative to Craigslist, for conservatives, I assume that they will allow firearms and ammunition ads. (Which, of course, the politically correct Craigslist won't.)
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Only in America Department: Dealer offers AK-47 with each new truck purchase (A hat tip to Jeff D. for the link.)
" ...vaults of the central banks and return to the pockets and purses of private individuals, for gold is the only really sound money with intrinsic value. The desire to return to gold is understandable, and we hope to see it realized some day, although the argument in favor of the gold standard is not always stated in a valid way. The distinctive function of gold money does not consist in its intrinsic value or in the constancy of that value, which fluctuates even in the absence of government intervention. The excellence of metallic money in free circulation consists in the fact that it renders impossible the abuse of power of the government to dispose of the possessions of its citizens by means of its monetary policy and thus serves as the solid foundation of economic liberty within each country and of free trade between one country and another. - Faustino Ballve, Essentials of Economics, 1958
Friday, July 17, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
An Introductory Note: The writer of this article has politics that differ from my own (and probably the majority of SurvivalBlog readers). He is an eastern liberal populist, while I am a western conservative libertarian. You might wonder why I'm providing him a soapbox. I'm doing so in part to show where we have some common ground, but just as importantly because Mr. Valenza's viewpoint might become prevalent in the next few years, and protests may be coming to a neighborhood near you. Hence, if you are a mortgage holder, you might view this with alarm, while those of you that are under threat of foreclosure and eviction might see Valenza's stance as positive in some ways. If nothing else, this article illustrates a political aspect of the "we/they paradigm" that might lead to some public protests and fisticuffs in the near future. It all comes down to where you put yourself on the continuums of scale of government, access to (and resort to) force, individual liberty, and the right to own property. Where things gets fuzzy--at least for some--are the concepts of private ownership, the integrity of binding legal contracts, and the often misapplied concept of "social justice." I predict that the next decade will be tumultuous. Choose your locale well, fully consider your affiliations, prepare prudently, pick your fights carefully and deliberately, and don't get caught on the receiving end of either a billy club or a pitchfork. That is, unless you know in your heart that you truly are in the right, and engaged in a struggle worth dying for.
I believe we are on the precipice of the Second Depression. Though President Obama is working valiantly to turn the country’s financial ship, it appears to me that the lack of a genuine
economic engine to create sufficient, sustaining, value-adding jobs will come too late. What should the common man do?
Much of the advice on how to live through such hard times is often too specific, not specific enough or draconian. How many of us are ready or should even consider survivalist methods? Who among us can afford to completely restructure their finances on a moment’s notice? Which of us can effectively plan now for the unforeseen severity we may or may not face?
Often to my amusement, I have found that everything in life can be boiled down to Three Rules that pretty much envelop the whole enchilada. I call these simple statements of essential truth a “Three Rules" poem. They can be fun, amusing, thoughtful, whimsical, et cetera. This one, presented for your approval and commentary, is dead serious.
Properly deduced, by sorting through the minutiae to find the lowest common denominator, a given Three Rules won’t tell you exactly what to do, but they should provide the framework for recognizing actions to a successful conclusion.
Here are mine:
Three Rules for Living through the Second Depression
1. Escape and avoid entanglements with scams and the authorities.
2. Stick together to defend each others right to food and shelter.
3. Make yourself useful.
Allow me to elucidate on each of the above.
Escape and avoid entanglements with scams and the authorities.
Debatable as it may seem now, this rule will become imperative. As the situation grows grimmer, more and more people and organization will devise ever more devious ways to steal the resources they want from those that can be conned or exploited.
As we have seen, much of what is called our financial system is nothing more than a cabal of greed that has worked diligently to sanction rules that effectively fleeced workers of their deserved earnings.
Look at any list of what to do during a financial crisis and you will find suggestions as to the preservation of your hard earned capital, should you have any, or a suggestion that you get out of debt. Good ideas, but they do not go far enough or wide enough to give anyone practical guidance and doable tasks.
First, let’s go wide. This rule includes all powerful or legally protected organizations that promise more than they know they can ever deliver. Here are examples that deserve skeptical analysis: unsecured debt of all kinds, especially credit cards with numerous fees, charges, penalties and usury interest rates; work at home scams; costly education with no job certainty; fortune tellers and spiritualists of all varieties; full commission sales positions with no base salary; internet scams; credit counseling; insurance; job counselors, resume services and business consultants; barter brokers; pyramid schemes and other versions of musical chairs; speed, DWI and other police traps to snare high fines and surcharges; et cetera.
If you haven’t already noticed, the police are out in force and quick to pull the ticket book trigger. Here in New Jersey, though the civil and criminal courts were subject to cost-cutting furlough days, no such thing happened in the money making municipal courts. Basically, now is not the time to get caught being late with payments or cheating on taxes, nor the moment to get on any bureaucrat’s building code violations clipboard. As the tax & budget shortfalls grow, expect to be hunted down for the most insignificant violation of any law, code or tax regulation.
The authorities will continue to work diligently to create money-raising traps disguised as public service. Be careful out there! That you've done nothing wrong, nor hurt anyone, may not matter. If caught in any such snare, don't exacerbate the situation, minimize the damage.
Keep you relations with the government limited to only what it can do for you and beware that even these “community chest” transactions may include trade-offs, expressed, implied or otherwise that may work against you.
Going as far as possible, if you lose you job or you’ve been purchasing necessities on your credit cards, or you can’t afford the medicine or medical care you need or you’re about to lose you home or car, definitely consider escaping the entanglement and life sucking burden of debt. Are you feeling guilty about the option of filing for protection from your creditors? Consider this, you didn't’t make the rules, but you have to live by them. Bankruptcy is in the rule book, use any and all rules to your advantage without any qualms.
Stick together to defend each others right to food and shelter.
All of the accounts of the Great Depression remind us of how important organizing will be to survival in the Second Depression.
Face facts, it’s good to be member of any club that supports you in living a decent life.
I am no fan of organized religion, and I do not advocate its proliferation, but I must recognize its one aspect of value to the individual participant: community. Remember, you don’t have to believe in Santa to have friends. Any group will do, especially family. Have a pact to house each other if worst comes to worst.
In Florida, Max Rameau is housing the homeless in foreclosed property. He considers his work both civil disobedience and the morally proper response to human necessity. In desperate times, we will all do what we must. We must all protect the most basic human right to food and shelter for each other.
Do what they did during the Great Depression, support your neighbor and don’t let them be evicted. Homelessness is a nightmare that can bring the strongest of us to our knees. The right response is not to let it happen to our friends, family and neighbors.
Act locally to secure food resources to your geographic community, both near and wide. Industrial agriculture, the menace that brought you cheap, unhealthy and non-nutritious food, will starve you when you cannot pay the price. Recognize that hunger is a political/financial issue; it has nothing to do with a lack of food in the world. This will not change during the Second Depression.
During the Great Depression, there was abundant food, much of it warehoused and going to waste as scare jobs meant scare money and starving people. Monsanto, ConAgra,
Nestle and ADM are not going to feed you if you can’t pay; neither are McDonalds, Burger King, Fridays, Chili’s or the rest of the chain palletized food venues.
Support your local farms and fisheries as much as possible. Not only is that where your food will be grown, it’s where the local jobs will take root. Farmer’s markets, chef-owned and independent restaurants, the locally owned quality supermarket may be a little more expensive, but chances are they offer real value and will be there to underpin the your local community when times get tough.
Make yourself useful.
You can start right now. Play “what if” with yourself and do a little mental planning. What if, I can’t afford the rent? Make the call to friends and family so you will know where you can go and for how long. Figure out your finances now. Do what makes sense now in light of what is probably going to happen in the future.
If you have a job, keep it. If you hate your job, know the risks before you make a move. If you have savings, secure it. If you have debt, do what must be done to get rid of it. Sooner is better than too late.
If the worst happens and you’re out of work this is the rule to heed. Figure out what you can do. They’ll be plenty to do to help others and help you and yours.
As with food, jobs are going to become an important local resource. Local business are not going to move, but the may fail, without your support during the Second Depression. Consider local options for everything you buy now. Tech support and computer repair: the local geek shop or a Dell extended warranty? Banking: Citibank or the local credit union that will still FDIC secures your deposits? Customer service and support: deal with the person in Bangalore or request for a representative in the United States? It goes on and on: The local organic farm or Perdue? Quality clothes made in the USA or Wal-Mart’s Chinese imports? The big box home center or the local hardware store that is not just luring you in to sell you patio furniture? We’ve made too many poor choices in all these respects over the last three decades. Let’s think local and long term starting now.
Fix it. Paint it. Repair it. Weed it by hand instead of buying Round-up. Collect rain water for your garden. Basically, when your money is in short supply and your time is long, use your time and don’t spend the money.
Voting early and often may be out of the question, but if you got the time why not make yourself useful and give your elected representatives an earful. Now is the time to make your voice heard as our timid politicians tip-toe around and hope for the best.
In conclusion:
Apply these rules starting now to your particular situation, needs and environs. We can get through this if we start thinking and acting more deliberately and cut out those institutions that only want our money and have never cared a whit about us.
JWR Adds: Before you send me a Nastygram about Mr. Valenza's article, please re-read my introductory note, above.
Hi Jim,
I enjoyed that excellent GPS article [by Mike S., "GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival".] It squares well with my personal experience.
GPS on-board mapping has many errors. Seems worse in the hinterlands. Also pretty bad where new construction is concerned. I was amused while driving in MA that for about a half mile my GPS unit thought I was driving down railroad tracks.
While snowshoeing with friends, my buddy had to demonstrate the GPS on his iPhone. All it showed was a dot in the middle of a blank screen. We were beyond the reach of cell phone towers and his phone could not access a map. We had a good laugh about it, but it's a good thing we knew our way through other means.
Many people who totally rely on a GPS for driving seem to lose their innate sense of direction. I asked a cousin for directions to a place and he said. "Huh . . . I've been there a hundred times but just follow the GPS directions. I really couldn't find my way there without it."
I do enjoy having GPS in my car. It came in handy when my speedometer cable broke and I could get my mph off of the unit.
Just be aware of its limits and don't forget your other navigation skills. - Raymond
LJ in England sent us this: Swine flu deaths in Britain soar to 29 as 12 die in four days
Andrew in England sent this from Yahoo UK: Pandemic threat 'worse than terror'
From Cheryl: Great Pandemic Flu of 2009 is Coming and No One Can Stop It! Cheryl's comment: "This is a 2006 novel, Another Place to Die
SR recommended this: Fight for swine flu vaccine could get ugly
Reader IJS flagged this: Ron Paul: Obama Will 'Destroy the Dollar'
Jim Sinclair (of JS Mineset) mentioned this chart posted at Contrary Investor, showing levels of derivatives exposure. Jim Sinclair raises and interesting question: Where does Goldman Sachs actually have the majority of their derivatives plays? And this chart is also illuminating. In the same piece, Sinclair included a link to this: Mobius Says Derivatives, Stimulus to Spark New Crisis. I have been warning folks for years that the derivatives market is like a ticking time bomb! A full-scale derivatives implosion could make the current economic crisis seem trivial, by comparison!
Buckle up! FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair is predicting that the bank failure rate will increase tenfold. (A hat tip to IJS for the link.)
Greg C. spotted this: California tax officials: Legal pot would rake in $1.4 Billion. Greg's comment: "Well they ended prohibition during the depression so they could collect a new source of tax revenue. I guess we should’t be surprised by this new development."
The latest over at the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Foreclosure Nation: Highest Foreclosure Quarter in History.
No Great Surprise Department: Foreign demand for US financial assets down in May. [JWR Adds: "First prize for our contestants is a suitcase full of US Treasury Bonds. Second prize is two suitcases full of US Treasury Bonds."]
Items from The Economatrix:
Rising Unemployment Accelerates Foreclosures Crisis
CIT Group, Inc. Won't Get Bailout, Raising Bankruptcy Prospect Shares tumbled 70% Thursday. "It is unclear how a bankruptcy filing by a company that lends to thousands of small and mid-size businesses would affect shaky financial markets hobbled by an economy in recession and bleeding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. Small businesses are seen as keys to economic recovery."
Minimum Thought (The Mogambo Guru)
Map: Broad Unemployment Across the Country
Stocks Make Push at End to Keep Rally Alive Is this more manipulation?
World Bank Warns of Deflation Spiral
House Bill to Hit Millionaires with 5.4% Surtax More BHO "share the wealth" philosophy, in action.
Republicans Criticize Agency for Consumers "Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee called the proposal "an example of this administration being Big Brother" and "a tremendous overreach" that would limit what companies could sell and consumers could buy."
CalPers Sues Rating Agency Over Losses "Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, has sued the three largest credit rating agencies for giving perfect grades to securities that later suffered huge subprime mortgage losses. The California Public Employees' Retirement System said in a lawsuit filed last week in California Superior Court in San Francisco that it might lose more than $1 billion from structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that received top grades from Moody's Investors Service Inc, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Inc."
Some unexpected fallout from the Kahre American Eagles legal tender case: U.S. Attorney Wants Newspaper to Name Names. (Thanks to Chad in Missouri for the link.)
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F.G. mentioned this guaranteed-to-choke-you-up commercial from Ford.
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Reader KAF brought this piece in IBD to my attention: It's Not An Option; Congress: It didn't take long to run into an "uh-oh" moment when reading the House's "health care for all Americans" bill. Right there on Page 16 is a provision making individual private medical insurance illegal. Meanwhile we read: Congressional Budget Director Warns Health Care Bills Will Raise Costs
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Greg C. spotted an article describing the threat spiral escalations in South Africa: ATMs to Dispense Pepper Spray to Robbers
"That mythical island, whose inhabitants earned a precarious living by taking in each other's washing." - Lewis Carroll
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Mr. Rawles:
I am at a disadvantage to your American readers. I live in a suburb of London, and travel by train to work each day. Street crime is now out of control in some neighbourhoods, but I cannot carry a weapon. I must say that I'm envious of Americans that can carry concealed pistols and revolvers. Here, I cannot even carry a pocket knife. Are martial arts effective, and if they indeed are, then which one will be most effective with not too much time for training? What do you suggest? Thanking You in Advance, - G.H. in England
JWR Replies: I wrote the following for SurvivalBlog back in 2006. I'm re-posting it, along with an update, for the benefit of the many readers that have come on board more recently:
I highly recommend training to use a cane, walking stick, or a traditional full-length umbrella. This is particularly important for our readers like you that live in gun-unfriendly nations. Ditto for our readers that live in states like California, New York, and New Jersey where is is very difficult for mere mortals to get a carrying concealed weapon (CCW) permit. And even if you are a concealed firearms permit holder, you should learn these valuable skills. Why? You never know when circumstances might dictate that you cannot carry a pistol. (For example, when traveling to a state where your CCW permit is not valid, or when traveling overseas.)
Here is a forward from firearms instructor John Farnam, by way of SurvivalBlog reader Grampa Redd:
"I attended
a stick/cane-fighting seminar yesterday, instructed by Peter Donello
of Canemasters. Canemasters manufacturers high-quality canes and walking
sticks and provides training in their use. However, I used my Cold Steel City Stick, as did several other students.
I was astonished at the number of effective moves available to the
cane/stick fighter, certainly more than I can remember! Peter's knowledge
is vast, and I did my best to catalog the few that I thought were most
effective and easiest to learn. Range is the big advantage that canes
have
over blades and other impact weapons.
Striking and jabbing are still the premiere moves, easily done with
nearly any style of cane. Some follow-up moves and holds and more
comfortably accomplished with a hooked cane than with a straight
stick, but either style works just fine. The real question is:
What can I have with me most often that attracts the least attention?
This four-hour clinic is something I recommend to everyone. The
cane is a wonderful, low-profile, yet extremely effective fighting
tool
that most people can fit into their lives with a minimum of lifestyle
disruption. Most casual observers don't even notice when you have
one with you and certainly don't believe them to represent a threat.
Time
well spent!"
As for walking stick designs: From what I have heard and observed here in the U.S., if you are well dressed and groomed, then law enforcement officers in most jurisdictions will hardly give you a second glance if you are carrying a walking stick. But if you are shabby looking and perceived as "riffraff", then expect to get plenty of grief. Canes, especially aluminum ones those that look like true walking aids, are far less likely to attract suspicion than walking sticks. I have an acquaintance who lives in Oakland, California who carries a dull silver aluminum cane with a big rubber tip. This cane looks very unobtrusive if not downright innocuous. It is not until you pick it up that you realize that it has been retrofitted with a 1/2"steel rod firmly epoxied into its hollow core. The phrase "the iron fist in the velvet glove" comes to mind!
I have another acquaintance that lives in a very rainy climate, near Seattle, Washington. He makes a habit of carrying a stout full length traditional umbrella whenever he gets out of his car. Aside for misplacing several umbrellas over the years (a fairly costly mistake, since he carries a big sturdy umbrella which cost around $60 each), he has had no trouble. (And, by God's grace, he has only had need to use it to protect himself from rain showers.) Nearly all of the stick/cane fighting techniques apply to folded umbrellas, and they can also be used quite effectively for jabbing.
My general preference is to use a shoulder-width two handed grip grip in most situations, to maintain control and more importantly to assure retention of the stick. This is akin to what has been taught for many years by police academies in the use of long ("riot") batons. The last thing that you want to happen is to have Mr. Bad Guy gain control of your weapon. If that were to happen, you would become he "Owie" recipient instead of the Owie distributor!
Do some research on your local laws. In most jurisdictions, any blow with a striking weapon to the neck or head is considered potentially lethal. Police academies emphasize this in their baton training. ("Never strike above the chest unless you you would in the same circumstances draw your pistol and fire.") So don't escalate to doing so unless you absolutely confident that your life is threatened and you have no other choice. (Essentially it is the same as firing a gun--at least in the eyes of the law.) It may sound sissified and a bit too prim, proper, and "Queensbury Rules", but most courts look at things in terms of equal force and a graduated response, roughly as follows: If Mr. Bad Guy uses his fists, then you can use your fists. If he uses a weapon, then you can use a like weapon. If he strikes above the chest, then you can strike above the chest. As a practical matter, there are no rules in trying to save your life in a street fight, but apparently there are in court houses, post facto. Yes, I realize that graduated response is not realistic to expect, since street fights are fast and furious. Most victims don't even recognize that their attacker is using a weapon until after the incident is over. (The classic victim's police statement is: "I thought that he was punching me until is saw the blood, and it wasn't until then that I realized he had used a knife on me.") But again, a graduated response is what courts will expect in order to make a ruling of justifiable force in self defense.
Don't forget that we live in a litigious era, so expect prosecution and/or a civil lawsuit in the event that you are forced to use a weapon in self defense, even if you were entirely in the right. Show restraint, and never deal out punishment. Just reduce the threat with a quick jab or two, disengage, and then engage your Nike-jitsu technique. (Run!)
If you get into an absolutely lethal brawl (a truly "kill or get killed" situation) and you cannot disengage, then by all means aim where you can do the most damage: The front or side of the neck. The human neck is soft tissue, a bundle of nerves, veins, arteries, and wind pipe. It is your surest target to end a fight quickly and decisively. (The same goes for hand-to-hand combat. Aim your punches at his throat.) But again, it is also your surest way to find your way to a courtroom. I can't stress this enough: show discretion!
When carrying a weapon of any sort for self defense, be sure to develop the same Condition White/Yellow/Amber/Red situational awareness skills that you would for carrying a concealed firearm. (See Naish Piazza's article "The Color Code of Mental Awareness", available free at the Front Sight web site. (Click on "Special Offers" and then on the link for "15 Gun Training Reports free of charge.") Extensive training on self defense combative techniques is worthless if you don't see an attack Be alert.
If you don't live near a school that teaches cane and stick fighting, there is a 40 minute training DVD produced by the Gunsite academy, titled: "Defensive Techniques: Walking Stick." It is available from the Gunsite Internet Pro Shop. (They do not accept overseas orders.) OBTW, one of my readers also recommended Lenny Magill's training DVD "Mastering the Walking Stick".
I should also mention that modern self defense with a walking stick ("Bartitsu") was first popularized by Edward W. Barton-Wright. His classic 1901 magazine article on walking stick self defense is available for free download. See: Part 1 and Part 2. These techniques are weak on weapon retention, but it otherwise is still fairly valid, even after more than a century.
Update for 2009 on Yawaras and Kubotans
For
discreet carry, don't overlook the potential effectiveness of short striking weapons such as Yawara sticks and Kubotans. Since these self defense tools are restricted in many locales, I recommend instead carrying a Cold Steel Pocket Shark 
Some martial arts dojos offer yawara stick training. These are derivations of the ancient "closed sheath" Japanese striking techniques. These classes are offered by both karate and Filipino Martial Arts (FMA) academies. Just be forewarned that many dojos require at least brown belt ranking as a prerequisite for anything beyond "empty hand" classes. This means a lot of time and money before they will teach you how to use a yawara!
Although they are no substitute for hands-on training from a master, there are several training DVDs that can give you a head start. These include Yawara Kata Training by Maurey Levitz, Kubotans & Yawaras
In closing, I must repeat that situational awareness is crucial. You mind in your primary self-defense weapon. With the right training and a survivor's mindset, just about any small sturdy object found close at hand can be used as a weapon--even a pocket comb or just a tightly-rolled magazine or newspaper. Get the training, practice often, never travel unarmed, and maintain "Condition Yellow", as a minimum.
Dear Jim and Family,
I recently read your book "Patriots"
I just read your section on the Swine Flu and the question of N95 masks
I live in Stamford Connecticut right outside New York City (NYC) and work for a large Fire Department. I fit test all 300 guys every year and about 20 size changes occur each year due to weight loss or gain. Hence another reason to be fit tested. I hope that this sheds some light on the issue of a proper-fitting mask.
Be Well, Stay Safe, and with God most of all, - SGT Joe L.
James,
An N95 or N100 mask is actually only good for a few hours of use. Once they become saturated with water from your breath, they loose their effectiveness as well as become a health hazard that makes it easy to literally asphyxiate you. The wet keeps air from going through that part of the mask and you end up breathing the air that makes it past the seal between your face and your mask. Also those of you (like me) with facial hair, out comes the razor. If you plan on spending a long time out in public during what ever the epidemic of the day is, you should carry several. This is good advice to those that have bought a single box of them and consider themselves "prepared". The best bet during a pandemic is just to stay at your retreat, away from others.. N100 masks are quite expensive even by the box and are the best choice. N95s will do if you don't have any N100s. - Frank B on the Border
Jim;
Referencing the letter: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask: This may be a case of "pilot error". The standard N95 mask has a bad reputation, as a retailer of N95 masks there are several drawbacks to these masks, they are:
* Fit
* Filter
* And Fouling
First let's look at fit, because they are designed as a one-size-fits-all consumer product they obviously don't fit every face, and they tent to gap around the edges, especially if making facial movement like talking.
Second, the filter material they are using is deemed "to stop "95% of all particulate matter larger than 2 microns". There are several articles that show the manufacturers use every conceivable way to make their product match those standards and few of them are on actual human test subjects. [(The tests are done with mechanical test fixtures with tight edge seals.)]
Third and most important as your letter writer pointed out is "Fouling". With out an exhalation port the filter material becomes clogged with the water vapor you breathe out. This then forces you to either force your air in and out through an increasingly "full" mask or more likely, breathe around the gaps in the mask, making it completely ineffective.
Then you may be asking "Why buy them if they don't work"? Well the truth of the matter is that they do work, if you use them correctly and for the right reasons. The inexpensive N95 masks come in boxes of 20. That is so that you change them often. With heavy use, i.e. heavy breathing, they should be changed at least once an hour. The greatest utility for these masks is to help you to not touch your nose and mouth with your hands!
Although the Flu virus can be airborne, you are far more likely to get it by touching a contaminated surface like a door knob, stair rail, or a grocery cart handle [and then unconsciously touching your face]. So for that purpose they do a great job.
There are more expensive disposable masks on the market, (Those made by Triosyn are the best in my opinion, although very expensive and hard to find.)
Don't count out the great standby, the N95, I stand by them, but only if they are used correctly! - Kory
From frequent content contributor GG: Commodities market is the place to be, says Jim Rogers. Rogers describes Ben Bernanke: "He's an idiot."
Reader HPD mentioned this piece by Robert P. Murphy: Mish Should Ditch His Deflation Fears
Who's getting hit most by layoffs?
LA mayor: City will pay costs from Jackson event. How can Los Angeles justify this expense, given their fiscal situation?
Struggling Landlords Leaving Repairs Undone
GG sent this: Federal tax receipts down 31% in Second Quarter
Items from The Economatrix:
Brand Name Companies Go Bankrupt
Obama Says Unemployment Will Increase for Months How jobless numbers will respond is "not yet clear"
Some Economists Warn Obama's Too Optimistic on Economy
Still Traveling for Business But Carefully
FBI: Bank Robber Cites Economy in Holdup
Strong Results at Intel Pull Stocks Sharply Higher
Despair Flows as Fields Go Dry and Unemployment Rises The San Joaquin Valley is America's fruit and vegetable basket.
Jobless Benefits Run Out in Record Numbers
Washington's Dilemma: This Isn't a Recession, it's a Collapse
California Nightmare (The Mogambo Guru)
Reader JN-EMT mentioned a site that describes a straightforward method to refuel a propane-converted car or truck from a 20 pound barbeque LPG cylinder. Take a look at this page for the "gas can" and other propane ideas.
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F.R. found this piece at the New Scientist site: Is your city prepared for a home-made nuke?
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Experts Now Saying Recent Cyber Attacks Came From Britain, Not North Korea
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Cheryl sent this article from Sacramento, California: Rise in County Gun Sales Tied to Fewer Cops, What Obama Might Do
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US Guns Debate Fires Up as Arizona and Tennessee Allow Guns in Bars
"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." - Bertrand Russell
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
For the next two weeks, starting today (Wednesday July 15), Ready Made Resources is having a special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House Freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don't miss out on this sale, as they don't happen very often. Stock up!
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Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
This article might at first glance seem "off topic" for SurvivalBlog. But as I can attest personally, health insurance is a vitally important preparedness measure. If it were not for our insurance, I would be presently be bankrupt and would have been forced to sell my ranch. (My wife is presently in very precarious health and has had more than $1 million in medical expenses in the past year. Thankfully, the insurance has paid for most of it.)
The American healthcare system is collapsing and it will continue to do so no matter what comes out of the current debates in Washington. As a result, healthcare in the United States will continue to rise in cost. Worse, healthcare will become difficult to obtain; specialty care is already scarce in some areas and many rural counties do not have even one doctor who will accept Medicare patients. There are many reasons for these developments that are too complicated to outline here but it’s important to be aware of these trends because they will affect your ability to obtain care when you need it.
Directly related to the healthcare system is the health insurance system which is equally a mess. Following are what I’ve learned in the past 30 years as a health insurance broker in a western state:
Why You Need Insurance
As an insurance broker, I constantly meet people who tell me that they don’t need medical insurance. Most often I’m told “I’ll just go down to the emergency room where they gotta treat me no matter what”. While this is technically accurate it doesn’t mean you’ll necessarily get the care you need. A lot depends on the tax base of the city, county, and state where you live. If your region is financially solvent, the local hospital will probably take good care of you. However, if your local government or state are in trouble, healthcare is the first thing that gets cut, leaving hospitals underfunded and understaffed. Compounding the problem is the fact that reimbursements from HMOs, insurance companies, and the various federal and state entitlement plans (Medicare, Medicaid, county welfare, et cetera) are in many cases lower than the actual cost of delivering care. As a result, the system is starved for funding and providers are in revolt. Older doctors are simply retiring and dropping out of the system. Many of the physicians that remain in practice are canceling their contracts with insurance plans and government schemes and moving to cash-only business models. (In a major city in my state, it’s getting very difficult to find a pediatrician who accepts insurance. Most are now cash only.) As for emergency rooms, it’s becoming difficult for some hospitals to staff their ERs, especially with specialists and surgeons because the outside docs have no assurance that they’ll be paid for treating the un-insured. This results in delays in critically needed treatment as ER directors frantically try to find doctors who will provide care to injured but un-insured (or government-insured) patients.
These trends are causing a serious physician shortage that’s going to get worse as more doctors exit the system. As mentioned, many of the physicians who stay around are limiting their offices to patients who pay cash or have insurance that adequately reimburses them for their time and expertise. A group of surgeons in my town recently constructed their own private hospital about two miles away from the regional medical center. Since it’s private and does not accept government funds, the doctors can limit who gets in. If you don’t have insurance, they send you over to the medical center.
The fact is that the US healthcare system can no longer afford to provide care to everyone who needs it. Most federal, state, and county systems are hopelessly bankrupt and there are 50 million baby boomers now entering their highest-cost years of healthcare needs. In the coming years, who gets treated will be primarily be decided by a person’s ability to pay the bill and private, comprehensive insurance will be one of the few keys that will get you the care you need. Like it or not, in the future the people who have insurance will get treated and those that don’t will be sidelined to long lines for tests, appointment with specialists, and needed surgeries.
How to Get Covered
Aside from cost, the biggest problem with private medical insurance is getting approved. Most states allow insurance plans to decline individuals who have prior medical problems. The debates going on in Congress now include guarantee-to-issue mandates for insurance carriers. However, these mandates – if approved – are years way from implementation. Meanwhile, people with existing medical conditions need insurance now.
Some states in the eastern US mandate guaranteed coverage for all applicants but most states don’t. If you have a pre-existing condition, the only way to get medical insurance is to be part of a group plan, either as an employee or as a business owner. The regulations vary from state to state but most states require insurance carriers to issue group coverage to eligible businesses no matter what the health of the participants. In other words, insurance companies cannot refuse to cover employees of a legitimate group. However, you can’t just call yourself a group and get covered – eligibility for a guaranteed group plan is strictly defined. In most cases, eligibility requires an established business (typically in operation at least 3-to-6 months), with two or more W-2 status employees, working at least 30 hours per week, for at least the local minimum wage. All of these requirements must be satisfied to qualify and carriers require detailed verification of these parameters in the form of business records and payroll reports. So you can’t just call yourself a group and get coverage – you have to have a real business with at least two people on a legitimate W-2 payroll.
For most people, this is a dead end. However, there is a loophole in some state laws that can get you around most of these requirements. The insurance regulations in some states allow corporate officers to count as employees for the purposes of qualifying for group insurance. If your state has this provision you can form a corporation, name yourself and your spouse (or family member, or friend) as corporate officers and become eligible for guaranteed-issue medical coverage no matter what your health history. In my state there is no requirement that the corporation actually engage in a trade or business or have revenues, nor is there a requirement that the officers be on payroll or take a salary. All that’s required is a corporate structure and at least two officers named on the filing documents. Carriers hate this loophole but there’s nothing that they can do about it if it’s part of the state’s insurance code. It’s the law and they have to abide by it.
Cautions: The corporation must be filed in your state of residence and the officers typically have to be state residents as well. Other requirements may apply depending on where you live so discuss the details with a local attorney who works with small businesses and a local insurance broker who is familiar with the group plans available in your area. Also, don’t submit a filing with 10 or 15 family and friends named as officers because they all need coverage. Keep a low-profile. You may technically be within the law but I’ve seen carriers find one excuse after another to postpone approval of a plan because they didn’t like the group. You are much more likely to get five separate corporations approved, each with two officers, than a single filing listing 10.
In my state, creating a corporation costs about $2,000 for the legal work and filing fees and there may be annual taxes levied by the state depending on where you live. Note that these outlays do not include the cost of the insurance plan; the corporation is merely the vehicle that will allow you to obtain coverage. However, once your corporation is in place, you will be able to obtain insurance and maintain coverage for the rest of your life irrespective of your health or your employment.
Pre-Existing Condition Exclusions: Even though you can obtain guaranteed coverage through your corporation, the insurance plan will not necessarily cover pre-existing health conditions. Unless you have prior insurance in place within 62 days of the start of your group insurance (“Prior Credible Coverage”), existing medical conditions may have a waiting period before they are covered. Here’s the general rule:
A pre-existing condition is a medical issue for which you saw a licensed practitioner, had tests or treatment, or for which you took a prescription medication in the six months prior to the start of the new plan. If you did not see a practitioner or have treatment, tests, or took meds for the condition in the prior six months, then you are covered for all conditions immediately. If you did have treatment of some sort, then that condition is not covered until you have been on your new plan for six months. But after six months-plus-one day, the pre-existing condition is covered just like any other illness. And once you’ve satisfied the six-month wait you won’t have to do it again even if you switch carriers or plans as long as you move directly from one group plan to another.
Finally, don’t lie about your medical history thinking that you’ll get past the pre-existing condition exclusion. Insurance carriers investigate every claim that comes in during the first six months that a plan is in effect. They can do this because the authorizations you sign when submitting a claim allow the company to obtain any medical records about you no matter how far back. Meanwhile, you’ll likely forget that during a prior office visit with your doctor he asked you about the problem and you mentioned some treatments in the past. That will be in your doc’s notes and the insurance carrier will see the note and start tracing back. If they find out you lied on the application they’ll refund all your premiums, hand you back all your claims, and rescind your coverage. People try to cheat insurance companies every day and the carriers know every lie, every scam, and every trick that people try to pull. They’ll find out if you try to cheat them and they’ll pull your coverage if you do.
Low Cost Medical Coverage
Unfortunately, there’s no such thing as "Low Cost Medical Coverage" but there is lower-cost coverage. We tell all of our clients to select a plan with the highest deductible they can afford if they get sick. High deductible plans have lower premiums but still provide comprehensive major-medical coverage in the event of a serious accident or illness. In most states carriers now offer plans with annual deductibles of up to $5,000 and that’s what we recommend.
While $5,000 may seem like a lot to pay if you get sick, you can always work out a payment plan with the hospital once you’re on your feet again. For example, let’s say that a heart attack and bypass surgery cost you $50,000, with the insurance company picking up about $43,000 of the cost. You owe the hospital $7,000 for the deductible and various co-payments and you can’t afford to write a check for the full amount. First off, thank them for taking good care of you – the hospital’s billing people get yelled at all the time about how high the bill is. Meanwhile, the hospital’s docs and nurses probably saved your life, so be respectful and grateful. Then, offer to pay $600/month over 12 months. Another strategy is to ask for a discount in exchange for immediate payment by cash or by credit card. Providers want to collect payments and close out accounts as fast as possible so many will make a deal for quick payment. If you owe the hospital $7,000 tell them that you’ll settle the bill on the spot for $3,500. They may counter at $4,500 or $5,000, but whatever figure you settle on will be a significant discount. The key here is immediate payment – have your cash or credit card ready because it’s the only enticement you have to get a reduction in your balance.
Insurance That’s Not Insurance
I occasionally get a call from someone that goes like this: “I bought insurance from a guy and then got sick and now the hospital says I owe $30,000. What can I do?” Some insurance contracts have limits on how much will be paid for expensive care such as surgery or hospitalization but those limits are buried in fine print on the back page that no one reads. These plans typically have lower rates that the local Blue Cross/Blue Shield policies and it’s tempting to purchase the cheaper coverage. However, like anything else, you get what you pay for with insurance. Plans with similar benefits all cost about the same from carrier to carrier because they pay out about the same amount of money if you get sick. So a plan that promises lower rates for high benefits is impossible – somewhere along the way, the insurance company has figured out a way to make a profit even though they charge less than their competitors. Most of the time they do this by capping the payout in some way, usually by “internal limits” on expensive benefits. For example, a company located in the Southwest has been very successful in marketing a “special” policy designed specifically for the self-employed. Their sales people tout the great coverage and low premiums and they sell a boatload of this junk insurance all over the US. What they don’t tell you is that the policy benefits have caps on the payouts. The agent will explain that the policy will pay 80% of your hospital bill but what he doesn’t tell you is that the hospital payout is limited to $10,000. (This is an actual case that I dealt with last year. A young women was diagnosed with cervical cancer about seven months after buying insurance from this company. She now owes the hospital $37,000 because her contract limited the hospital payouts to $10,000.)
Here’s what to look for: Be very suspicious of insurance plans that are connected to some sort of official-sounding “association” or “union” for the self-employed. I’ve rarely seen a plan like this that provided good coverage. Some of these plans don’t even have a real insurance company behind them - the association or union is just a front for the sales guys who sell cheap insurance, collect a pile of money from the premium payments, and then close the plan down and skip town, leaving all their customers with no coverage. (I’ve personally seen two such "plans" in my area.) Also, do not complete an application if you have to initial every page of the form. When you initial a form it means that you have read, understand, and agreed to everything on that page and doing so is legally binding. That means that you can’t sue the agent or the company if there’s a dispute later about the terms of what you signed. That’s what happened to the girl with cervical cancer - she got stuck with a $37,000 hospital bill but couldn’t sue the agent because she had initialed the page with the fine print about the $10,000 payout cap. And because of this initial-each-page scam, that guy is still out there selling his junk policies to unsuspecting people.
Before buying insurance, read the fine print. Ask questions. Listen carefully and take notes. Talk to agents from different companies. And be very suspicious of any plan that’s not insured by a major, well-known insurance company. If it sounds too good to be true it probably is.
Premium Increases: Whatever plan you choose and whatever the monthly rate, your premium will go up every year. Yep, every year. By how much? That depends on your location but in our state it’s averaged 10% per year. Some years were higher than that, some lower, but 10% is the long-term average we’ve seen and we thing that will continue. There are lots of reasons for this – too many to discuss in this posting - but it’s a fact and you need to plan for it. In addition to the annual increases, your rate will also get bumped up as you move into higher age brackets (e.g. 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64). Fair or unfair, right or wrong, that’s the way the system works. The cost of healthcare and the cost of health insurance is going to rise in price every year. If you want access to good medical care you need to understand and plan for this reality.
The one offset to these increases is to raise your deductible from time to time. A $5,000 deductible was unheard of a few years ago and now is common. In a few years we’ll start to see deductibles of $10,000 or more. Moving your deductible up every few years will help control your premium outlays. But doing so will place increased importance on maintaining your health. In the coming years as medical care gets more costly and you raise your deductible your personal lifestyle will increasingly impact your household finances. If you lead an unhealthy life your medical expenses will ultimately bankrupt you unless you’re very wealthy. Therefore, a healthy lifestyle is now a financial decision. Cut out the tobacco, get more exercise, eat right, and get your check-ups. In short, do all the things we all know that we should be doing. If you follow though, you’ll be healthier and there will be less danger of you depleting your family’s monetary reserves by $10,000 per year for deductibles and co-pays because of a chronic illness.
Hi Jim,
I read your blog every day as I am preparing my family for the likely collapse. Thanks for the info.We are looking for the ideal spot for our retreat and have found many possible places all in the Pacific Northwest (wooded, very private and off of main roads, creeks, etc.)
Here is our dilemma: We have four horses and want to grow our own hay to feed them. How does one find a property that is remote and hidden but still with enough flat, fertile land to grow hay (5-10 acres per horse!)? Our horses are all small and hardy breeds but still need to eat! In a TEOTWAWKI scenario, do you consider horses a positive for transportation, pulling/plowing power?
We are preparing for a worst case scenario -- no gasoline to import hay, closed roads, Golden Hordes, unlimited government regulation of farming/production, hungry horses, et cetera.
What are your thoughts? Thanks, - Alex
JWR Replies: Owning well-trained horses is highly recommended, particularly in a long-term situation where gasoline is either unavailable or prohibitively expensive. I recommend that you locate your retreat in both good pasture and haying country that has reliable rainfall and fertile soil. Plentiful water in the absence of grid power will be the first and foremost consideration. Assuming that you have a pair of horses that have worked in harness, find an old-fashioned horse-drawn hay mower and a large hay wagon, so your horses can earn their keep, by bringing in their fodder.
Training of both horse and rider is crucial, if nothing else than for safety. As our family has learned, a horse can do a lot of damage in a hurry, even if they are at a standstill. Get the best training you can afford. For draft horses, Doug "Doc" Hammill up in Montana is one of the best. There are of course hundreds of trail horse trainers, but for practical versatility I recommend that you also search out the best working horse trainer in your region. (Even if you don't own cattle now, you may someday in the future.) OBTW, I recommend watching the DVD "Clinton Anderson: On the Road to the Horse Colt Starting".
Unless you find an exceptionally isolated property, security will be dependent on having neighbors that you can trust and in having enclosed stall space where you will secure your horses every night. You will of course need perimeter electronic security. Get a Dakota Alert infrared intrusion detection system, at the minimum.
If and when you relocate, try to buy a parcel that is essentially landlocked--but I mean this in the good sense of the term--namely a parcel with a neighboring ranch between you and and the county road. Ideally your property should have just one private deeded right-of-way lane for you to watch. (Your property should sit at least one "40" back from any public road.) That will distance you and hopefully shield your stock from line of sight, and it will greatly simplify your security arrangements. Limited avenues of approach will considerably reduce the requisite security man hours and also greatly reduce your stress level.
JWR:
For those who are planning to wash clothes in case of power outage or loss of delivered water I have two suggestions.
First is the wringer to get excess water out of washed clothes. Use an industrial mop wringer, such as the kind available through Lowe's stores. It is made of heavy duty industrial plastic, and, of course, is dual use. Wring out your mops or your clothes. It is less expensive than a traditional roller type wringer.
Second, for washing clothes in small batches you might consider a foot moved (adapted to hand crank on rollers) drum cement mixer of the kind marketed by Sportsman's Guide. It is made of poly plastic and is easily cleaned. Once again, it is a dual use item. Mix your cement (60 lb. sack capable) or in an emergency use it as a clothes washer. Due to its tight seal it could also be used as a storage container if need be, instead of a five gallon bucket. If you choose, you could get multiple buckets for storage use and then after the manure hits the spreader, when the drums are empty, use them as barter items.
One final item: Sealable plastic drums with removable tops of the 55 gallon variety are a good way to store sacks of cement and keep them dry until they are needed. Bag each cement sack in heavy duty plastic bags before storage, as a "just in case", so that if one bursts it does not make a mess. Plastic drums used for soap --like that used by car washes (or auto dealers)--can sometimes be purchased fairly cheaply from the car wash owner. (They have a return fee to the distributor of between $10 and $20.) These type of drums have two small caps in the top and are easily cleaned and reused to collect runoff water for gardening, toilet flushing, or could be adapted for use as mini-septic tanks with exit holes drilled on one third of a side (properly called vaults) or cut a hole in the bottom, install a toilet seat and use it for an outhouse (but don't forget to cut out the top and set it on a base layer of large gravel prior to use).
Just a few thoughts for the "adapt, reuse and recycle" minded. - Bob W., in West Virginia
Influenza Pandemic Update:
1918 & 2009 H1N1 Similarities Confirm Recombination "...the growing list of similarities between 2009 pandemic H1N1 and 1918 pandemic H1N1 continues to cause concern."
UK: Swine Flu Vaccine to be Cleared After 5-Day Trial (How can they eliminate the risk of pathogenicity so quickly? Your Editor is dubious.)
WHO Says Health Workers Priority for H1N1 Swine Flu Vaccine
My friend "X" in Japan pointed out an article that I overlooked last month: Confiscated US Bonds Were Headed For Swiss Free Port. OBTW, living near a "free port" (as described in the article) might have its advantages in a protracted economic depression. Commerce will slow globally, but port zones will probably continue to have profitable opportunities.
Several SurvivalBloggers sent this: June budget gap $94.32 billion, record for June
Eight readers mentioned this Wall Street Journal article: The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think; The average length of unemployment is higher than it's been since government began tracking the data in 1948. As is typical for a liberal eastern establishment writer, Mort Zuckerman gathers good data, but sadly reaches pro-statist conclusions. Zuckerman asks: "So what kind of second-act stimulus should we look for? Something that might have a real multiplier effect, not a congressional wish list of pet programs. It is critical that the Obama administration not play politics with the issue. The time to get ready for a serious infrastructure program is now. It's a shame Washington didn't get it right the first time." The solution to the unemployment problem is not wealth-transfer "stimulus", "bailouts", and assorted job creation "programs" . Instead, we need genuine free enterprise, a sound currency, honest banking, and minimal taxation to truly stimulate the economy. Instead of "programs", we need government to get out of the way and let bad debt be unwound, and allow the economic engine recover.
Mort Zuckerman also wrote this piece for US News & World Reports: Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better. (Thanks to GG for the link.)
Items from The Economatrix:
Financials Pull Stocks Higher
China Takes Steps to Break Sway of Mighty Greenback
Boomers: Winter is Coming
The Doctrine of Preemptive Bailouts and the Biggest Bailout You Haven't Heard About. "...this is a disturbing new development in our bailout nation since this is one of the first times that the U.S. Treasury will try to preemptively deal with a financial problem."
Geithner Says Global Economy to Suffer Setbacks During "Recovery"
Debt Deflation: The Reason Why Government Economic Stimulus is Doomed to Fail
Momentum Builds Toward Possible End of Federal Reserve
The Shamans Economic Solution: Why Failure is Imminent
What's the Real CPI Inflation Rate?
Kevin A. sent a link to page with an amazing wealth of links: Magazines (and Websites) About Homesteading and Self-Sufficiency
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Reader PD sent this: Fall in World 2009 Food Production
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F.G. sent us this: Powerful Ideas: Military Develops 'Cybug' Spies
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Bobbi was the latest reader to mention the reader-generated Cool Tools web site. I've linked to it before in the blog, but so many of their recent articles tie in to SurvivalBlog topics that it bears mentioning again. For example, the current Cool Tools review of the recent book How to Build with Grid Beam
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Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large) mentioned that FerFAL in Argentina had a link to Jeffrey Kuhner's insightful article The Peron Pattern, in The Washington Times.
"We who lived in concentration camps can remember those who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread. They may have been few in number, but they offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a person but the last of the human freedoms - to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances - to choose one's own way. " - Victor Frankl
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A "grab bag" of preparedness gear and books from Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Reading accounts of people who had evacuated the Gulf Coast during Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita was a sobering experience. Evacuees who took to the interstate highways effectively ended up in giant parking lots. In contrast, those who used the back roads fared much better and were able to evacuate in a timely manner. I live sufficiently inland that hurricanes do not pose a serious threat to me, nor do other foreseeable regional natural disasters such as earthquakes pose a serious risk. However, I live in the middle of a major metropolitan area where man-made disasters and localized natural disasters can and do happen. Similarly, a disaster can impair my ability to even get home. I also know from personal experience that even "normal" weather-related events such as ice storms can turn the major highways into near-parking lots, and knowing the back roads can save precious time.
Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers have come a long way since they were first introduced to consumers in the 1990s. My first GPS receiver, purchased in 1995, had no inherent map capability. It provided position (latitude, longitude, and elevation) information, along with a bearing while traveling. It had the ability to store way-points, and to record tracks for later review or backtracking. Way-points and tracks were displayable on the graphical display of the unit, but it only showed where you had gone or places where you already knew the coordinates. Using it to its full potential required that it be used in conjunction with a high quality map, such as a United States Geological Survey (USGS) topographical map. By the mid-2000s, GPS receivers with mapping capability became available for a reasonable price. Today, GPS receivers with mapping capability are available for under $100.
There are competing systems to the US GPS system. The Russians have their own operational global navigation satellite system (GNSS) called Glonass. The European Union is currently developing their own GNSS, Galileo, expected to be operational in 2013. And, the Chinese are promising to deploy their own GNSS, called Compass, announced to be operational in 2015.
Further, there are regional satellite based position augmentation services that improve the accuracy of GPS. In North America, the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) is operated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Europe operates the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS). Japan has the Multi-functional Satellite Augmentation System (MSAS). Other regional GPS augmentation systems are under development or being deployed.
This discussion is going to focus on hand-held and automotive GPS receivers - receivers I believe would be useful in an emergency situation. Hand-held GPS receivers run on batteries and are intended for outdoor use. Automotive GPS receivers are intended for use in an automobile, and provide turn-by-turn route navigation capability. Some hand-held GPS receivers have route navigation capability. I don't consider a GPS receiver that relies on a computer or PDA for display of data to be practical for emergency use since there are too many pieces to be forgotten, lost, or damaged in the "fog" of an emergency evacuation.
Many cell phones also have GPS capability, and while GPS-enabled cell phones are useful during normal times, they rely heavily on the cellular network to provide map and routing information, and should not be relied upon during an emergency when the cellular network may be overloaded or compromised.
Automotive GPS receivers
Automotive GPS receivers provide astonishing capability for their price, but they are not truly portable. For example, the TomTom ONE 125 unit has been readily available for around $100. It comes with a fairly detailed pre-loaded map of US streets and highways, and has a built-in lithium-ion battery which will power it for about three hours. It is intended to get its power from a vehicle. The map mode display is nearly as good as that provided by Google Maps which contributes significantly to its usability. More expensive units will provide larger displays, larger maps (e.g. all of North America), and more points-of-interest (POI) in the map database. (Several of the automotive GPS receiver manufacturers have started providing free or reasonably priced map update services for their road map products. This may or may not be important to you depending on how much the streets and roads change in your area of interest.)
Automotive GPS receivers are known for providing turn-by-turn directions from your current location to your destination. Destinations are either selected from the POI database, entered as a street address, or even entered as a latitude-longitude coordinate. Many reviews of automotive GPS units will complain that the unit does not navigate you to the exact address entered, but may be off by a house or two. My automotive GPS receiver misplaces my home address on my street - it appears to assume that addresses are numbered proportionally from 0 to 99 along the block with 50 being the mid-point of the block, and estimates the position along the street from the numerical address. I don't consider this a significant issue. My automotive GPS receiver is also capable of generating a route to a known latitude-longitude coordinate position, so long as that position is close to a street or road in its map database. However, it won't generate a route to a previously stored location hundreds of feet from a street or road, such as a location in the middle of a large parking lot.
Handheld GPS receivers
Handheld GPS receivers fall into several broad categories. Bare-bones units whose functionality consists of storing some small number of way points and the ability to direct the user back to one of these waypoints. Basic units whose functionally is not a whole lot dissimilar to those produced in the mid-90s in that they can record tracks and waypoints, and provide coordinate information. And, mapping units that have pre-loaded/built-in maps and usually have the ability to upload additional map information (many caveats here).
Bare-bones: I am only aware of one GPS receiver on the market with this limited feature set. This unit is the Bushnell BackTrack. It has the ability to store three waypoints set by pressing the "Mark" button when you are at a location you want it to return to later. There is no ability to enter waypoint coordinates. It provides a bearing and distance to direct the user back to one of the three previously stored waypoints. The bearing is displayed via one of 16 triangular points spaced around the perimeter of its round display being energized. The three-digit range is displayed in yards (or meters) or miles (or kilometers) depending on the magnitude of the distance to the waypoint. The BackTrack is intended to help a user return to their car in a large parking lot or find their way back to a hotel in a strange city. It may also be useful in helping a day hiker return to his vehicle, or helping a hunter return to a stand. I see little practical utility for a receiver with this limited capability in a SHTF scenario.
Basic: There are many basic GPS receiver models on the market, the most common being the yellow Garmin etrex (not to be confused with the many mapping etrex models). These models generally provide a compass display, velocity displays, position displays (latitude, longitude, and elevation), and can display a map-like plot of your route tracks and way points. They do not contain any type of base map. They have the same basic capabilities of units sold in the 90s, with updated hardware. They must be used in conjunction with high quality maps to be utilized to their full potential.
Mapping: There are many mapping GPS receiver models on the market. They range from units having a limited base map containing major roads, major streets, and larger bodies of water, to units that come pre-loaded with topographical maps for the entire US. Units containing a limited base map generally have memory for uploading additional map data. Some models use a memory card (SD, or micro-SD) to store the uploaded map data, and some models rely on internal memory. The big caveat is that map data can expensive - on the order of $100 for detailed maps of North America - and generally these maps cannot be shared among multiple units.
No matter how new the map, it will contain old and erroneous data. This is a frequent complaint in the product reviews of electronic map products.
Some hand-held mapping GPS receivers have routing capabilities. With the addition of routable maps, the receiver can function as basic automotive GPS receiver. It will beep and display a message to alert the driver/navigator of upcoming turns. At best, a hand-held mapping receiver is a compromise relative to an automotive GPS receiver due to the small screen size and lack of voice prompts. (Do not underestimate the value of voice prompts when traveling in heavy traffic or in a dense urban environment with numerous streets and exits.)
The Garmin user community has developed open source (free) map products using US Government data and other data unencumbered by use restrictions. For US roads, the Ibycus map is very nice, but lacks the metadata utilized by the routing software built into some Garmin GPS receivers. Further, there are open source topographical maps of the US derived from US government data. The Ibycus and topographical maps are available online from GPS File Depot.
There is another site (http://garmin.na1400.info/routable.php) that has routable street maps for Garmin GPS units. As of this writing, I have not tried the maps available on that site.
Some mapping units also have the ability to upload satellite images and other image data from the internet. I have not studied those units in any detail.
Supportability
Supportability relates to the resources required to support the ongoing operation of the GPS receiver. For automotive GPS receivers, this means gasoline to power the vehicles within which they are used. For hand-held GPS receivers, this is largely its battery consumption. In anything other than a short-term emergency situation, I don't consider an automotive GPS receiver to be sustainable because of the dependence on gasoline supplies for its host automobile.
Currently marketed hand-held GPS receivers have widely varying battery consumption rates. Some are as low as 10 hours on 2 AA cells (many models), while others claim to be as long as 50 hours on 2 AA cells (Lowrance GO and GO2). Most hand-held GPS receivers use AA cells, while a few use AAA cells. Whether disposable alkaline batteries or rechargeable batteries are used, I am interested in units that have longer battery life. Further, I do not consider hand-held GPS receivers with built-in rechargeable batteries or a proprietary battery pack to be supportable since recharging the battery in the field would be impractical.
Mapping GPS receivers, whether hand-held or automotive, are generally dependent on a personal computer (PC) for map installations and updates. Some GPS manufacturers also sell their maps preloaded on memory cards for their GPS units that accept memory cards. Once map data is loaded onto the receiver, it can be utilized without further updates by a PC.
Position Accuracy & Chipset Sensitivity
The typical GPS receiver specifications will state a position accuracy of less than 15 meters (49 feet) RMS 95 percent of the time, or less than 3 meters (10 feet) 95 percent of the time with WAAS. WAAS is a system for North America with two geostationary satellites that transmit GPS correction information to dramatically improve the position accuracy of GPS receivers. (See the Wikipedia entry on WAAS for more information.) Most WAAS capable GPS receivers also support EGNOS and MSAS.
Even when GPS receivers have the same position accuracy specifications, receiver sensitivity and other design parameters make a big difference it the actual position accuracy. Position accuracy is a function of the number of satellites the GPS receiver can receive and the quality of the satellite signals. Three satellites are the minimum required to get a two-dimensional position fix, and four satellites are required to get a three-dimensional position fix. The more satellites that are received, the better the position solution will be. In practice, obstacles like mountains, buildings, or trees are going to attenuate the satellite signals and affect the position solution. But, software and chipset sensitivity also have a big influence on position accuracy.
Most GPS receivers sold now have WAAS capability, but just because the receiver is advertised as being WAAS capable does not mean that the WAAS feature actually functions. In 2007, the FAA moved their WAAS transmissions to new satellites. Magellan GPS receivers had hard coded the WAAS satellite data in the firmware for their hand-held GPS receivers, and many of these receivers did not transition to the new satellites. The firmware for many of their older hand-held receivers (pre-Triton models) can be hacked to update the satellite data and re-enable WAAS. As of this writing, WAAS does not work on the lower-end Triton models, and nobody has yet figured out how to hack the Triton firmware. The Lowrance iFinder GO receivers appear to have a similar firmware problem.
Not all GPS receivers have the same sensitivity. Chipset sensitivity is important. My mid-19s90s vintage GPS receiver has noticeably diminished sensitivity under many trees. In contrast, a modern high sensitivity chipset will pick up most satellites visible above the horizon, even when the signal travels through the brick walls of a typical residence.
So, how important is position accuracy? Well, it all depends on what you want to do with the receiver. If you are trying to return to a camp site, a one-hundred foot position error is probably close enough. If you are trying to find the location of a buried cache, one hundred feet probably isn't close enough. However, a position error of less than ten feet will probably be close enough to locate the cache.
Using Your GPS Receiver
Start up. When a GPS receiver is first taken out of the box or after it has been stored for several months (a "factory start'), it requires upwards of 15 minutes with a clear view of the sky to download the almanac and ephemeris data necessary to compute an accurate position. (Some GPS receivers come from the factory preloaded with almanac data, and if that almanac data is current the receiver can get a first fix out of the box in seconds.) Older consumer GPS receivers produced in the 1990s that do not have parallel receivers can take far longer (up to several hours) to produce an accurate position result from a factory start.
Subsequent power-ups of the receiver, after having been off for a few minutes ("hot start") to a few hours ("warm start") will produce an accurate position result in a few seconds to less than a minute if it has a clear view of the sky. If the receiver is left off overnight or for several days ("cold start") the receiver should produce an accurate position result in a minute or so if it has a clear view of the sky.
Antennas. Most consumer GPS receivers now have internal antennas. Some are patch antennas and some are "quadrifilar helix" antennas. The patch antenna is normally facing up when the GPS receiver is lying on a flat surface. The quadrifilar helix antenna is normally facing up when the GPS receiver is standing vertically. It is beneficial to know what kind of antenna your receiver has and the orientation of that antenna to achieve optimal results. Some owner’s manuals will tell you what type of antenna the GPS receiver contains or suggest how to hold the receiver for optimal performance.
For example, the Garmin etrex Legend and Legend HCx have patch antennas. In practice, I have had excellent reception having them standing up at about 60 degrees on the dashboard of my vehicle.
Satellite Status Page. Most GPS receivers have a satellite status page that will provide information about the position of the satellites in the sky and the relative signal quality from each individual satellite in the form of a bar graph. Some GPS receivers have a dumbed-down "normal" satellite status page, and an "advanced" page - you want to use the advanced page. When I have seen my estimated position error degrade or I get a "satellite signal lost" message unexpectedly, the satellite status page can be very helpful in determining the source of the problem. No signal from some satellites could suggest that their signal is being blocked by a mountain or a building. Uniformly low signal quality could be the result of the signal being attenuated by tree cover.
Roadway Routing. GPS receivers with routing capability have preferences that allow you to select the type of route you want it to generate. Typical options are fastest route, shortest route, avoid freeways or highways, walking, or on a bicycle. Some receivers further have options for the type of vehicle (e.g. automobile, bus, truck) you are driving - this option can dramatically change the route generated. Most routing units will automatically recalculate your route to reach your destination if you deviate from the planned route (e.g. you miss a turn), unless you disable this option.
Updates. The major GPS receiver manufacturers occasionally make firmware updates available for those models that can connect to a PC if that PC has internet access. With rare exceptions, it is worthwhile to keep your GPS unit's software updated to the latest firmware version available from the manufacturer. These updates will correct bugs and may introduce minor enhancements.
Practice, Practice, Practice. Use your GPS receiver. Practice with it. Get to know how it works in different environments, how fast it starts up, how to navigate through its various menus. Figure out now how to mount it in your vehicle - windshield suction mounts work very well.
Paper Map and Compass. A GPS receiver is not a substitute for a paper map and compass. GPS receivers, especially the mapping variety, are just easier and faster to use. Use your GPS receiver to help refine your map and compass skills. (You can also use your GPS receiver to help verify that your compass reads true by obtaining the coordinates of some prominent feature, and then computing the magnetic bearing from your compass test point to the feature. Yes, even a genuine military lensatic compass can be off by several degrees.)
For information about using GPS receivers with maps (specifically topographical maps), I'd recommend the book GPS Made Easy
Summary
I believe GPS receivers have a place in emergency preparations. While probably not useful in a long-term TEOTWAWKI scenario where the GPS constellation will most likely have failed, they certainly have a place in many SHTF scenarios.
I have used GPS receivers from several different manufacturers. For hand-held units, I have a definite preference for Garmin units – they work as advertised. If you get a Garmin handheld unit, I recommend that you go for a “high sensitivity” model that accepts SD or micro-SD cards for map storage, uses AA cells for power, and connects to a PC via a USB cable. The only caveat, and this applies to all manufacturers, is to avoid newly-introduced models. Give the manufacturer some time to work out the bugs.
For automotive GPS receivers, I have had the most experience with the TomTom ONE 125, which is TomTom’s low end model. TomTom’s more advanced models just add features to this basic model. The Garmin automotive GPS receivers are well respected, and I know several people who are happy with their units.
If you can get only one GPS receiver, get a hand-held mapping unit with routing capabilities (e.g. the Garmin etrex Legend HCx), and load a routable map package (e.g. Garmin City Navigator NT) onto it. A handheld GPS receiver can continue to serve you if you are forced to abandon your vehicle, or are otherwise forced to travel on foot. If you can get more than one unit, add an automotive GPS receiver from a major manufacturer.
Opinions/Mini-Reviews
Below I provide opinions of several currently available mapping GPS receivers that I've personally been able to use. My simulated forest canopy is my traditional single-story wood-frame house with asphalt shingles and a brick exterior. GPS receiver performance in my house is similar to that which I have experienced under a tree canopy. Position accuracy is verified by entering the coordinates provided by the GPS receiver into Google Maps with satellite images, and comparing the position plotted by Google with the actual location on the satellite image. Further, position accuracy is only measured after the GPS receiver has had sufficient time to download almanac and ephemeris data from the satellites. All of these GPS receivers perform well outside, including when placed on the dashboard of a moving vehicle.
Garmin etrex Legend: The Legend is a hand-held mapping GPS receiver with a high level base map that contains major streets and highways, larger bodies of water, and cities. The four-level gray-scale display is very readable under most circumstances, and it has a back light for night viewing. It has 8M bytes of memory for storing map data, which will not hold a lot of map data. Battery life is advertised to be 18 hours on two alkaline AA cells. I have not timed the battery life, but I have no reason to believe that the advertised 18-hour run-time is unreasonably optimistic. The GPS receiver chipset is not "high sensitivity" but I can pick up many of the visible satellites under my simulated forest canopy. This receiver also has WAAS capability, which dramatically improves its estimated position error. I have seen estimated position error values as low as 6 feet from this unit. In early 2009, this model was replaced by an upgraded model called the etrex Legend H, which utilizes a high sensitivity GPS chipset, has 24M bytes of map memory, and connects to a computer utilizing USB.
Garmin etrex Legend HCx: The Legend HCx is a hand-held mapping GPS receiver with a high level base map. The color display is very readable under most conditions, with an excellent back light for night or low-light conditions. It accepts micro-SD memory cards. Battery life is advertised to be 25 hours on two alkaline AA cells. It utilizes a high sensitivity chipset that picks up virtually all satellites in the sky under my simulated forest canopy. It is WAAS enabled, and can produce position solutions with estimated position errors under ten feet. It connects to a computer utilizing USB. The USB port in the unit can also provide power to the receiver in a vehicle if a cigarette lighter USB power supply is used.
With the purchase of the Garmin City Navigator NT map package ($100) and a 2 GB micro-SD memory card, routable maps can be loaded into the Legend HCx allowing it to function as basic automotive GPS receiver. It will beep and display a message to alert the driver/navigator of upcoming turns.
Lowrance iFinder Go2: The Go2 is a hand-held mapping GPS receiver with a high level base map containing major streets and highways, large bodies of water, and cities. The base map contains many smaller bodies of water not found in the Garmin base map. What makes this unit intriguing is an advertised battery life of 50 hours on two alkaline AA cells. The GPS receiver chipset is not high sensitivity, but it can pick up some satellites under my simulated forest canopy. This receiver also has WAAS capability, but this feature may not be functioning properly since I have not seen estimated position error values below 16 feet. While this unit has 64M bytes of storage, the manufacturer does not support upload of map data into this unit.
Magellan Triton 200: The Triton 200 is a hand-held mapping GPS receiver with a high level base map that contains major highways, larger bodies of water, and cities. After performing a necessary firmware upgrade, a significantly improved base map is loaded in the unit. The color display is difficult to read under many circumstances without the back light being turned on. With the back light turned on, the color display is beautiful. It has 10M bytes of memory for storing map data, which will not hold a lot of map data. Battery life is advertised to be 10 hours on two alkaline AA cells, which seems to be rather optimistic (6 hours is a more realistic estimate). It utilizes the high sensitivity SiRF Star III chipset, which picks up virtually all of the satellites in the sky under my simulated forest canopy. It is WAAS capable, but the WAAS capability may not be functioning (postings on several forums indicate it is disabled) since I have not seen estimated position errors below 13 feet.
The Triton 200 connects to a PC using a proprietary USB cable. However, there are many reviews, substantiated by my personal experience, indicating that many users have difficulty connecting their Triton GPS receivers to their computer. I could not get it to stay connected to my main computer long enough to even start the firmware update. However, it worked flawlessly with my wife's computer. (Note: My Triton 200 came with the USB cable, but the manufacturer's web site suggests Triton 200s do not come with the cable.)
TomTom ONE 125: The TomTom ONE 125 is a basic automotive GPS receiver. It has a nice 3.5 inch color display. It provides voice prompts and warnings, but does not speak street names. It only contains street maps for the US. It has 1G byte of flash memory built into the unit for map and software storage. Memory is not expandable. The auto-route capability makes some surprising choices - choices I would not have made and that are not optimal based on my driving preferences. However, auto-routing will get you to your location. As mentioned above, this receiver is also capable of generating a route to a known latitude-longitude coordinate position, so long as that position is close to a street or road in its map database. Its GPS chipset is incredibly sensitive, capable of picking up virtually all satellites above the horizon under my simulated forest canopy. While I cannot find any information from the manufacturer stating that it is WAAS enabled, its performance and information displayed on the satellite status page lead me to believe it is WAAS enabled. It also has a built-in rechargeable lithium-ion battery that delivers the advertised 3 hour battery life. This GPS receiver is readily available for $100 - a tremendous bargain for the features it provides.
Definitions and Notes
Almanac and ephemeris data - Almanac and ephemeris data are used by the GPS receiver to precisely compute satellite positions, and hence your position. All GPS satellites transmit almanac data providing coarse information about the orbital position of all satellites in the GPS constellation. Each GPS satellite further transmits its own ephemeris data which provides precise position information about its orbit. The almanac data is generally considered to be good for several months, but is updated daily. The ephemeris data is considered good for only about five hours. Almanac and ephemeris data is continuously transmitted. Full download of the almanac data takes 12.5 minutes, after the receiver has locked onto a satellite signal. Each satellite retransmits its ephemeris data every 30 seconds.
Base (or background) map - A base map is the default map built into a mapping GPS receiver. The base map typically contains interstate highways, US and state highways, four-lane city streets, incorporated towns and cities, lakes and rivers, and shoreline information. The detail of the base map varies from receiver to receiver, and can be a differentiating feature between two seemingly similar receivers. GPS receivers are typically regionalized, and will be loaded with base maps for the region (e.g. North America) where the GPS receiver is expected to be sold.
Patch antenna - A compact flat antenna, with a metal "patch" positioned above a ground plane. The greatest sensitivity is perpendicular to the plane of the antenna. The typical patch antenna in a GPS receiver is less than one inch square.
Quadrifilar helix (or "quad helix" or "quadrifilar") antenna - A cylinder shaped antenna with four spiral elements. The greatest sensitivity is parallel to the axis of the cylinder. Modern quadrifilar helix antennas in consumer GPS receivers can be as small as 10 millimeters (3/8").
Selective Availability (SA) - A currently disabled feature of GPS designed to deny an enemy use of civilian GPS receivers for precision weapon guidance. SA was designed to intentionally induce errors of up to 100 meters in the unencrypted GPS signals available to civilians. SA was turned off May 1, 2000.
Recent news stories have reported with alarm that the GPS system could fail in 2010. The facts are that GPS Block IIF satellites being built are almost three years behind schedule, and that the probability of maintaining a 24 satellite constellation between 2010 and 2014 falls below 95-percent. The US Air Force's objective of having a minimum of four satellites visible 95-percent of the time may not be met. As a practical matter, this means that there may be occasions where insufficient satellites are visible to get a 3D position fix. However, there are currently 30 healthy satellites in orbit, and three older satellites that could be reactivated if necessary. The chance of the GPS system failing is infinitesimally small.
This author has no affiliation with any manufacturer, distributor, or retailer of any product mentioned in this article. All brand names and product names used in this article are trade names, service marks, trademarks, or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. And, as always, your mileage may vary, so use this information at your own risk.
Jim:
Last Sunday night my family drove home to the sight of a pillar of smoke that looked like it was coming directly from where my house should be. It turned out to be the next door neighbor’s home. The blessing is that no one was home, so no one got hurt. The downside is that no one was home so everything owned was lost. I mean everything – clothes, food, water pump, furniture, bedding, cash on hand, tools, toys, games, appliances, equipment, books – everything.
The Red Cross put the family in a hotel for a few days. But after that they came home with a rented shipping container that they are sleeping in. Did I mention they lost everything? The local churches have provided clothes, the neighbors are providing meals. The local funeral home director of all people is donating an old trailer as temporary housing. They will eventually rebuild. But in the short term it is a post-SHTF situation that we can all learn lessons from. Here are the top three:
#1 for me is a profound sense of gratitude and appreciation for everything I own that might have been lost had it been my home. We shouldn’t take our blessings for granted. The end of the world as we know it could happen on a personal level at any time.
#2 This is the opportunity to share supplies meant for starting over in a post-SHTF world. You learn by doing. No matter how much I thought I was ready, I failed to think through the details. For instance one of the things I gave them was boxed mac and cheese with a kettle to boil it in. They had no stove to cook it on, or milk or butter that the directions call for. My bad. I just didn’t think it through.
#3 Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. I can not get over the idea that if my home had burned while we were away – they only possessions that we would have left would be what was stored away from home. If you don’t have a couple of caches. Get them in place ASAP.
Prayers for those in need are never wasted – thanks in advance for them, - Mr. Yankee
Tim Geithner Refuses to Answer Congressman Brad Sherman's Question on Derivatives Bailouts
Reader "Countrytek" recommended this NPR news story: Many Left Uncounted in Nation's Official Jobless Rate
Items from The Economatrix:
Baby Boomers to Kids: Kiss the Inheritance Good-bye
Obama Rejects Second Round of Stimulus First infusion [was] "not designed to work in four months...designed to work over two years."
Stocks Slipped 2% Last Week
Christmas Creeps into July at Sears
US Budget Deficit Tops $1 Trillion for First Time
After Losing Homes, Families Move into Tents
Awash With Cash (The Mogambo Guru)
Major Lender Faces Crunch
Study: State Budget Crunches Will Slow Economy
Republicans Unify Against More Stimulus Spending Call $787 billion plan 'flop,' say it hasn't fulfilled its hype
Obama Urges Patience on Economic Plan 'It will steadily save and create jobs as it ramps up over this summer and fall'
Empty Parking Spaces Sign of Recession
Boston Zoo May Close, Euthanize Animals
Wild Weather in Year Ahead, Scientists Predict
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North Korean Army Behind Cyber Attacks
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North Korea's Kim Has Pancreatic Cancer
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Care to predict a trend? Tiburon [California] may install license plate cameras. (Not to worry, folks. We've been promised that this is all for "public safety,")
"How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!" - Samuel Adams
Monday, July 13, 2009
The good news on H1N1 (commonly called Swine Flu) is that in current strains the death rate appears to be as low as 1 in 2,000 infections, at least in First World countries with modern hospital facilities. The bad news is that at least 60% of world's population is expect to contract the bug, and that further mutations are probable.
The Mutation Question
Mutations to less virulent strains are the historic norm for viruses but there is the risk of one that is very deadly. (To explain: in the grand scheme of things, a mutation with high lethality is is not good for a virus. Some, like Marburg and Ebola, have had strains that were so deadly that the hosts didn't live long enough to pass it along to a large number of new carriers. The most successful viruses are the ones that propagate well, but do not kill too many of their hosts.) We can surmise that the absolute "worst case" for H1N1 is that a much more lethal strain emerges, to be followed by a global infection, and a large-scale die-off. But again, that is the less likely outcome.
The Cytokine Storm Question
Up until recently, I agreed with SurvivalBlog reader "L. Jean" in England who in an e-mail last week noted that we were "still waiting to find out if it's a cytokine storm that kills or not." This is a determining factor whether young, healthy folks should try to boost their immune response, or whether that might make matters worse. Based on the latest literature, I believe that it is now safe to say that with H1N1 a cytokine over-reaction is indeed a substantial risk, and could be a bigger killer than the virus itself. So my updated advice is to continue to store immunity boosters, but not use them to treat H1N1 unless you are Imuno-suppressed. Otherwise healthy patients in ages between 18 and 50 should refrain from doing so. I have updated my article on influenza pandemics, accordingly.
The Immunization Question
There is a vaccine for H1N1 in development, but it has been put on a radically fast track for development and trials. This has raised concerns about contamination and efficacy. Since the strain chosen for the immunization is both a "snapshot" and a "best guess" about what strain will be circulating next winter in the northern hemisphere, and there will only be limited animal testing to rule out pathogenicity. So there are some critics that argue that the vaccine might pose more of risk than the flu itself. It is also noteworthy that the vaccination program will require multiple injections for each patient. In my opinion, it is not yet clear whether the risks will outweigh the benefits. For some of my readers this won't be a matter of choice. Both Canada and the UK have announced their intent to implement universal inoculation programs.
The Madagascar Question
In the well-known computer game Pandemic II, the president of the island nation of Madagascar is quick to isolate the country to prevent the advent of a pandemic. This has become a standing joke among gamers, and the term "Madagascar" has migrated into the epidemiology community. "Going Madagascar" is essentially slamming the doors shut, in the hopes of avoiding infection. (BTW, I know of at least two survival retreat groups that use "Madagascar" as their activation codeword, a-la the novel Alas, Babylon
Dear Mr. Rawles-
I am writing to tell other Survival Blog readers about a recent experience I had with an N95 mask (with no exhalation port.) My husband and I just bought a 30 year old single wide trailer with 30 years worth of dust, mold, and cat hair. After day of being in the trailer I could feel my allergies start to grow worse by the minute. To clean up the dust, cat hair, and other allergens we went to the local hardware store and rented a Rug Doctor to shampoo the carpets. While shampooing the carpets (which was a bit labor intensive) I wore an N95 mask and let me tell ya' it was an experience. After 30 minutes I felt like I was breathing in thick jungle air. After one hour I felt like I was going to pass out. After two hours I began to feel claustrophobic. If there are readers out there who think they are going to throw on an N95 mask when the swine flu hits their area and run from room to room while caring for sick and dying relatives/friends they better think again. My suggestion is to put on an N95 mask this afternoon, mow the lawn, rake some leaves, take the dog for a brisk walk and see how you feel afterwards. Having survival gear is great but if you have no real world experience with it then it's useless. Know your personal limitations and the limitations of your gear. God bless!
More prepped than ever for the swine flu, - Heather
JWR Replies: In my experience, it takes time to acclimate to wearing a respirator mask. There is no substitute for hours in a mask. Particularly for a full-face military mask, and even more so for a full MOPP suit, limited field of vision, dehydration, claustrophobia and sensory deprivation are well-known effects, but heat build-up up is also an issue, particularly in summer weather. In full-face masks, being deprived of prescription lenses is also an issue, unless you have a prescription lens inserts. (BTW, these hard-to-find inserts are available from JRH Enterprises.) Also be particularly wary of dehydration. Even with masks that include a drinking tube, most wearers have a tendency to drink less than usual.
The bottom line: Practice wearing a mask regularly, in a variety of activities.
Mr. Rawles;
Well, it happened without warning. Loud knocking on the door, insistent, and then again. A man from the local water utility was there, telling us late in the morning that we had a broken underground pipe that is flooding the neighborhood, and he is now cutting off our water supply.
We immediately called our plumber who arrived a couple of hours later with a crew to dig the big hole. The story, though, is how we felt with the water cut off: "Just fine, thank you."
Our preparations include:
1. Bottled water: 42 one-liter bottles, 75 half-liter bottles
2. 22 one-gallon and larger glass and plastic jugs filled with water and bleach drops added (glass sangria jugs with handles are the best)
3. Portable Katadyn water purification system
4. 30 water purification tablets
5. Family size water filtration system
6. 2 full rain barrels
7. 3 gallons plain bleach
8. 30,000 gallon in-ground swimming pool
9. Several cases of baby wipes
10. Many hand sanitizer dispensers
Naturally, the above consumables get rotated and replaced as needed. I'm not mentioning all the soda, juice, powdered drink mixes because those are extras.
I will mention that I grabbed one of those huge empty pickle jars, filled it with swimming pool water, placed it in the bathroom to use for flushing as instructed by a SurvivalBlog reader a few months ago. Thank