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Saturday, April 15, 2006

The U.S. Housing Bubble--Yea, the Pinprick Cometh

I am now convinced that the housing bubble in The United States is about ready to pop. Once home sellers see that "the Spring buying season" does not reappear along with hay fever this year, they will get panicky. Up to 30% of the homes that have been sold in the past two years have been sold to over-extended speculators who were hoping to "flip" them--taking advantage of the rising house market. The old saying goes "A rising tide raises all ships." But the inverse is also true. When the flippers realize that they are on a down escalator, they will start discounting their prices to make sure that their "spec" house sells before the music stops. Once this psychology sets in, it is just a matter of time before the mindset of "Get my investment back out of it" is replaced by "Dump it, and save part of my principal, while I still can."

There are already reports coming out of Florida and Southern California of a "buyer's market", with prices being substantially discounted. Some of the big house builders are offering unusual incentives ranging from gym memberships to cruise ship tickets. One of them is even advertising a "selling at our cost" sale, in an attempt to break even. Methinks this smacks of desperation.

As quoted in yesterday's Daily Reckoning (one of my daily "must reads"--BTW, I highly recommend that you sign up for a free subscription) economic analyst Richard Benson offered his insights on why housing is about to go to H*ll:
"Consumer debt is up to $2 trillion (not including $440 billion of revolving home equity loans and $600 billion of second mortgages). Not only do consumers owe a whopping $9 trillion in mortgage debt, but home equity extraction has reached $600 billion annually. Homeowners have basically received, and spent, in excess of $2 trillion that they never
earned (Just take a look at the increase in total mortgage debt in the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds Data since 2000).
"Home prices are under horrible pressure. There are probably a few million property owners, including speculators, flippers, and second-home buyers, who are in way over their heads. We've all heard stories about second-home buyers who really couldn't afford the luxury and high expense of a second-home priced at $200,000, yet they purchased one for $250,000
and rationalized its affordability because 'the value would only go up to $300,000 or more.' Besides, they naively believed 'It could always be sold quickly in a bidding war for a profit.' In resort areas - given the number of days people actually use their second home - staying at the Ritz for $500 a night could be a much better deal. Do the math; it's not pretty."

My advice: If you have a second home, sell it muy pronto. And if you anticipate moving within the next two or three years, sell your house and rent. The hassle of moving to a rental is nothing compared to the mental anguish of being "upside down" in a house mortgage in a plummeting market. The next five years will be a great time to be a renter. One unusual approach that might be prudent: Sell your house to a property management company, and then rent it back from them. Let them watch the value of the house go down. meanwhile, you'll sleep well.

Letter Re: Unintended Consequences of a Failure of Basic Services in a Disaster

Mr. Rawles:

I have maintained that next to water, food, medicine, and defense; waste disposal is going to be a BIG unexpected problem if and when any prolonged interruption of services occur after 9/11 part 2 or some other calamity eventually happens.
 
One of the reasons New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA) is not rebounding is that garbage that piled up after Katrina is still rotting in the streets.
 
People that I have seen at my place of work from that area say that less than 5000 people showed up for Mardi-Gras this year because of the stench of rotting garbage and even corpses of dead animals that are still in the streets, waterways, and sewers. Many that showed up stayed a day and left Ricky-Tick because the air quality was so bad.
 
In my own back yard, we had no garbage pick up for nearly 10 days after hurricane Rita. People from other areas began to trespass dumping their waste in our area or putting it in the burn pile. The president of the homeowners' association was notified and went to the dumpsters and burn pile and put up a chain link fence and notice in order to secure the area.
 
We tried calling the Sheriff's department, but they would not respond to anything that was not considered "life threatening." I can only imagine what would have happened if things had gone on for several more weeks, months, or if the entire State had been affected.
 
Most Americans take waste disposal for granted with curbside garbage pick-up, flush toilets, and sink disposal systems. Where I live, we have none of these "luxuries" and they can be a hassle at times.
 
During inclement weather, taking the trash to the dumpster is a hassle. Kitchen scraps have to be taken to the compost pile, and wastewater either goes to the septic system if it is blackwater, and to a cache for reuse if it is greywater. The septic tank has to be babied, and you have to be very careful what you pour down the sink, since the water is reused.
 
One of the big problem during Katrina was that during the flooding, with waters up to 20 feet high, all the household chemicals that were typically stored under the sink contaminated the entire city and will never biodegrade. (At least not in our lifetimes.)
 
Again, I bring these issues up because most people do not consider them a high priority. In a situation where the service infrastructure fails, it is not going to be a matter of how your 401(k) is invested or how many guns you own. It is going to be a matter of how well you can deal with seemingly insignificant things like what to do with your own body waste.- RJL 

Letter from Rourke Re: A New Breed of Feral Dogs, by Buckshot

Dear Jim:
The article "A New Breed of Feral Dogs", by Buckshot was excellent.  I think he's right that far too many of us only have "Lassie" or "Benji" idea of dogs.  One generation back my family had labs and would have trusted them with their lives.  Remember the old dog lover vs. cat lover saying, "If you die alone in your home, your dog will die at your side, but if you have a cat, it will eat you".  I certainly prefer dogs to cats, but I  was over to friend's home who had a Doberman and felt very uncomfortable with that animal, and kept watching where it was. My aunt was once suddenly attacked at a friend's home by their dog, and had to protect her with her left forearm, which the dog mauled before the owners could get control of the beast.  She had to have plastic corrective surgery and had to go to her only daughter's wedding with a cast over it.  Was the dog put down for that?  Unfortunately this happened in California, so no, it wasn't.  My Uncle threatened to kill the dog, and they told the police, and the police threatened him.
 
In the recent 2004 movie The Day After Tomorrow, they had to make the giant leap of faith that a pack of wolves somehow escaped from the New York City zoo, but notice this is what they chose as the terrifying nemesis from nature – being hunted by a pack of wolves in New York City.  There is something about that, being the elk, being the moose, surrounded by the pack that is a scary thought.
 
With our modern day veterinary science keeping dogs far more healthy, we forget about the image of a dog "foaming at the mouth" – and thus being rabid and dangerous.  I think people in very rural areas do have more of an appreciation for this article.  I had a friend who, as a young teenager in Northern Wisconsin got cornered on a dock alone while fishing by a smaller dog, literally foaming at the mouth.  He used his fishing poles to fend it off from coming toward him on the narrow dock, and considered jumping off and swimming for it, when the dog heard something in the woods and took off.  After a few minutes he ran to the cabin and called his father.  He, a few men then hunted it down as it was vacation area with a lot of children. The point one of the men made that my friend remembered was – "Once a dog goes wild, it's different than other wild animals because it has no fear at all of man."
 
My brother recently went fishing in Alaska and brought a .45 Winchester Magnum, an actual "Grizzly Mag" on an [oversize] 1911 frame.  The guides up there though used 12 gauge with Moose shot (OOO size buckshot, I believe) and aim for the face seeking to take out the eyes and have the shot go into the brain and take the big animal down.  For those of you who can't walk around with a gun, remember the old postman's remedy, pepper spray.  It's an easy thing to carry, especially if you are just out walking or even biking in a rural area.  My sister in law loves to run in rural areas, and I have finally convinced not to do that without pepper spray on her, dogs being one of the main reasons is used.  Cheers, Buckshot, great article on something we all should consider. - Rourke

Odds 'n Sods:

For those of you that own .223 AK-47s, I just noticed that the folks at K-VAR got in a batch of those nifty Bulgarian "clear" plastic AK magazines. Tell them that Jim Rawles at SurvivalBlog sent you.

   o o o

DEA Agent shoots himself in the foot during lecture--stupidity caught on tape

   o o o

The markets were closed yesterday for Good Friday, but the New York Access ("after hours") Market was open, and the commercial traders bid spot silver up to $12.91 per ounce! With silver consistently holding over $12.70 and the launch of two silver ETFs just around the corner, a "short squeeze" in silver is looking more likely. If there is indeed a full scale squeeze on the short sellers, spot silver could jump to $18 an ounce (or higher) within the span of a week. Mark my words...

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Taxation with representation ain't so hot either." - Gerald Barzan

Friday, April 14, 2006

A New Breed of Feral Dogs, by Buckshot

The biggest myth is dogs are your friend, people have been around dogs their whole life. A dog is the friendly one, protects you, fights off wild animals for you, your best friend. Once a true collapse happens people well have that mind set.

The mind set is dogs are our friends therefore friends are not going to hurt me. Woman with their kind heart are very vulnerable to attacks. Because in their world if you love enough the dog won't hurt you. Nothing wrong with women thinking this way today, just a mind set base on a life experience with dogs all being good. What I truly fear is when a collapse happens and million upon millions upon millions of dogs are turn loose they will revert back 10,000 years to a true wild animal. Disney will be a distance memory and life and death struggles will happen everyday. Packs will form base on survival. Just like man if you are going to survive you have to adapt so will the packs. The dogs will learn what attacks that work and what causes death or injuries to them. This will result in a new breed of some very feral dogs.

Say you leave and your wife, or daughter who is going to work in the garden. To be safe you give her a .38 special loaded with hollowpoints. A pitbull comes into attack she fires thinking it will be just like TV and the dog will fly off 4 feet and die. But instead the dog charges in for the kill. Now your wife, daughter, son or even you will have a very good understanding of fight or flight. Your life experience base on TV is saying Dogs are your friend, TV has taught you that when you do shoot the dogs is suppose to fly over from the shot dead. Right then a whole new reality is going to happen in seconds. What do you do? Are you thinking this could never happen 1 shot and the dog is done. Read one of the e-mails I receive on this very subject/

In reference to your writings on dogs.I'm was born and raised in San Antonio,Texas.And I am lucky to have had a grandfather who taught me all the advantages to learning about weapons for hunting and survival.When I was about 17 yrs. old I got a call from my mom about my older brother who,seemed to always have disagreements with local law enforcement.Well it seemed he was going away for a short vacation,if you know what I mean,and it seemed my mom was stuck with dealing with my brothers large stock of pit-bulls and a couple of pit-bull-Doberman crossbreeds.Majority of the dogs I had no problem getting rounded up and taken to the humane society.Now a couple,mainly a crossbreed named dragon,was going to be a different story.No one could get close to him because he was so viscous,even my brother had trouble with him.Well I knew the humane society wouldn't take a mean dog so I opted to put him down rather than have him hurt someone or god forbid a child.So I took a Charter Arms .38 caliber snubnose with hollow-points and proceeded to put him down.As I approached him he was snarling and trying to break the chain that was tethering him to a broken down 71 Chevy pick-up truck axle still attached to the truck.I shot him from about 5 yards away and hit him behind the left ear.To my shock and amazement he yelped once and proceeded to jerk the truck sideways sliding it about 4 or 5 inches in my direction forcing me to jump back about 2 feet almost losing my footing.I hastily shot him 2 more times,once in the chest and another in the neck before he finally fell.The ordeal had me shaken up a bit to say the least .I knew that if he would have had less tied to him he would have easily jerked free and I'm not sure if I would have been quick enough with the follow up shots.I learned very fast the choice of a .38 caliber was not enough for a dog,and he wasn't a very large dog either,I would say probably 65 lbs. tops.And I know of countless other dogs just in that neighborhood alone many from the same bloodline,and I would hate to even think of them getting loose and into a pack mentality.Thanks for bringing this very likely scenario to me as it never even crossed my mind once.I was only thinking of the 2-legged threat while not thinking of the obvious 4-legged one.

Now your thinking will my wife carries a 9mm Glock. My answer, so what. There was plenty of cases where police have shot attacking dogs with 9 mm and been chase on top of their car with the dog being hit numerous times from the 9 mm. I don't want this to get in a huge debate over what gun to carry. If you are going to carry a sidearm it better start with "4" is a good plan. But it is more then that. Ok, the gun is .45 are you sure you can hit a charging, growling, snapping dog running at you at 30 mph with 4 friends behind him. How about your wife, how about your daughter, your son, your best friend. In a true life and death struggle most people go through a slow motion time frame, tunnel vision, and base on your life experiences you can make critical or even fatal mistakes. Our mind is a wonderful computer. It will fill in voids, your mind is going to open the dog folder, dogs are your best friend this causes hesitating, your next folder will open up this is a attack like a pack of wolves killing an elk. Right then you realize you have change from being predator to prey, then your adrenaline dump will happen, 80% of untrained people will make a critical error next. They will freeze. Just like a computer that is getting conflicted reports it freezes up. Their mind will be screaming this isn't happening and like a deer in the headlight staring at the on coming semi truck the dogs will knock them off their feet.

The new breed of wild dogs will have a system to kill human base on past success. They have no natural fear of man, they normal get feed by man, it will be natural to turn to man for food, even if the food is man itself.
They will work out a hunting system because they are pack animals. Like wolves circling a deer, like a single lion chasing the herd of impala into the main pack, like an alligator waiting for the Zebra to dip his head for a drink. You see the predator job is to survive. In order for them to survive they must work out a hunting system. The new breed wild dogs will work out a hunting system on humans. As I have stated early on in this dog series I stated the normal household has less then 50 rounds of ammo. There will be millions of people unarmed walking around. The dogs will have a system worked out before they find you. In other words you are dealing with season troops. The troops attacking you are successful human hunters otherwise they wouldn't be attacking you.

The attacking force is successful, vicious, and is miles ahead of you in the thought process. They know what their goal is, to feed on you. They have successful stalked to within strike range. You have enter the killed zone just like a dog I had once. The dog was smart and hated squirrels crossing our lawn. The dog would sleep under a pine tree. This dog from past hunting experiences knew when the squirrel was in the kill zone. The kill zone was the point of no return for the squirrel. He would be too far from the safety of the tree he just left and too far from the safety of the tree he was heading to. The dog would charge out and before the squirrel reach the tree he was caught and killed. The squirrel made the critical mistake of entering the kill zone.

This is my point having watched dogs my whole life, hunt with me or by themselves I have an understanding base on reality. Even with me giving you these written warning people are still going to hit the critical kill zone from dog packs. The new breed wild dogs will allow you to enter their kill zone or stalk you until they feel you are in the kill zone. When you become aware of the attack you will have precious few seconds to react. Having read 100's of true attack stories people have reported the same thing, I could not believe it was happening to ME I froze not knowing what to do. This is why I am writing to open people eyes, dogs are attacking hopefully your computer brain will hit wild dog attacks file and you will react. But even if you clear leather of your holster in time, bring the handgun up to bear and shoot. The distance is already critical. Missed shots could be fatal, first missed shot or not damaging enough to put the dog down shot is going to cause you to have a second adrenaline dump. Your heart rate is going to change from a normal 75 beats a minute to 150 beats a minute. You are now going into a panic as you try to fire faster, praying that one will hit the target. Police officer in shoot out have shot the ground on their first shot trying to return fire to fast in a high stress situation. People have gotten buck fever and work lever action 30-30 without firing, ejecting fully loaded rounds to the ground. Ask what they were doing when it was over he said shooting at the deer. In his mind he was shooting.

My point is you don't know how you are going to react. You have enter the kill zone of season troops whose whole survival is base on successful hunts. Now wouldn't it better if you had a working system to catch the new breed of wild dogs before you enter the kill zone? The best thing you can do is put away 10 dozen medium snares in your retreat. You can easily surround all the main trails coming into to your area. It might not stop them all but if you have a pack of 30 coming in and only 3 make it to you just increase your survivalable 10 fold.

There is no better survival tool for the new breed wild dogs then real professional grade self locking snares. Get the DVD learn how to use these wonderful tools, for gathering food, protecting your retreat, your livestock, your family, and yourself.

http://www.buckshotscamp.com/Video-6-Sales.htm

http://www.buckshotscamp.com/Snares-Buckshots-Medium-Sales.htm

Chances are, hopefully you will never have to see this threat first hand. But I know city people mind set when it comes to their dogs. There is 100 million dogs in America if only 10% turn in to packs. Work out a hunting system it will take years for them to get clear out. There could be packs that breed that have even smarter and more vicious offspring. The pack teaches the hunting system the offspring learns what works and what doesn't. Each time they will get smarter. Can you imagine how bad it could be 10 years after a collapse if these packs are not brought under control? Enough to keep you up at nights.

Buckshot

James
took another sick day today and didn't want to waste
it, send this back if it is too buggyI was watching the classic movie Casablanca tonight
with my wife and thinking about all of the survival
lessons to be learned. WW-II is a classic grid-up
example that the system doesn't need to be destroyed
to require massive life saving evacuations, it also
reminds us how much more useful keeping your cool, a
hefty bribe, and having the ability to bargain out of
trouble can be over letting your guns do all the
talking all of the time.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Find your Community
Survival Psychology as viewed by an engineer
The average human has a need to lash out and find an
outside cause when they feel pain. Much like an
injured animal the disaffected person will attack even
when assistance is offered. This is possibly the most
important consideration to be made when considering a
home, retreat location or bug out location, will you
be considered an outsider to be lashed out upon.
As I have related in an earlier article after moving
to and equipping the "perfect" retreat near an
excellent well paying job in the USA I discovered that
even long term move-ins to this are were considered
outsiders to a mostly family related population my job
qualifications were the only way I had found a decent
job in this area. A massive mistake when the
community for both familial and religious (lone
Orthodox Jew in a rural partly secularized monolithic
Christian community) reasons make you an outsider.
Engineers assessment:
High risk failure point...
Outsider in homogeneous community
People turning to instinct will turn inwards to their
basic groupings this is bad news when you are a
minority without your own support group. If there is
social friction between groups there is a much higher
danger involved as a larger or stronger group will try
to cleanse the weaker group. Historically we see this
in Jews of Europe, Muslims vs Africans, Blacks vs
Asians in LA riots, and Serbians vs Muslims in
Yugoslavia.
The safest path is to disregard political correctness
and analyze your current community and any planned
moves to take into account mob psychology if they are
stressed. If you need an example consider the rise of
the KKK during the 30's during what was a relatively
mild depression in the united states but where rage
was take out upon the black population. anywhere
that there is a feeling (often fed by welfare
destroying the self worth) of anger there is the fuel
for violence.

XXXphlosophoical rant snip if you likeXXX
Beware the ignorant white liberal I have found that
much like the Jew who hid his flight from his faith
hid behind commitment communism the modern affluent
white liberal hides his hate for the lower classes
behind a false tolerance. The liberals rejection of
family values and raising children causes him to
strike out at those who would do so. The socialism
which he supports disenpowers fathers and usurps their
responsibility to feed and protect his children. This
lack of fatherly guidance leads to a hyper-masculine
environment where the violence threshold is much lower
than normal. Sadly the single motherhood and moral
breakdown problem has hit many rural communities
leaving troubles almost as bad as in inner cities.
These affected communities where proper upbringing has
been abandoned present a major danger in a time of
social and economic upheaval.
Fortunately being Jewish the answer for a survivor is
a move to Israel without any other realistic choices.
Other minoritias in the USA have a much more difficult
choice, strong faith based communities appear to be
the only binder that can effectively protect members
of these groups.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Montezumas Revenge
or Travel Sickness
When traveling the maxim "don't drink the water" can
be a warning against more than water borne bacterial
diarrhea. Changes in water PH salinity and dissolved
solids may not be stopped by even good filtration or
purification drops and tablets. Also remember that
like Norte Americanos in Mexico, Mexicans go through a
transition in the USA where their immune system must
acclimate to a huge new flora of bacteria which they
have no antibodies to specifically combat
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
the MROD sea water filter
For over 10 years now lifeboats have oftem been
equipped with an amazing device which uses a
semi-permiable membrane and pressre to make drinkable
water from a hand pumped device. Weighing around 2kg
this device is a little large but if near a coastal
area should be considered if you have a decent budget.
In my testing I am glad I purchased the coast guard
version with laver extenders and thigh strap. If we
take the time I will even try to test my MROD in the
dead sea for the ultimate test.
more info here under MROD:
http://www.tpub.com/content/clothingandindividualequipment/TM-1-1680-354-10/index.htm

I'm looking at radios but can't makeup my mind. What do you like Motorola or Midland, throat mic or boom mic, 2 watt or 5 watt, 22 channels or 22 channels with 38 privacy codes, NOAA channels, repeater capable, scramble feature, etc... what's the best setup, is there a best setup.I've read your book twice, still can't decide, what's reasonable.How about Cabela's 4 radio Hunter's Pack,something for a crew or a pair with better specs.What are your thoughts on the subject,thanks for the help. - J.C.S.

You've probably had article's on "corrective len's" and things like that but for those who can afford it I recommend Lasik by a good Doctor. I now have 20/20 in my left eye that was -4.25 before. I only had one eye done, but being able to see w/ one eye is better than not being able to see at all. The other thing I would probably recommend (if the bubble does ever burst) that any needed surgical procedure be done now; e.g., I recently had my sinuses fixed which is much better than living on antibiotics... So my tidbit regarding medical care, is get it done NOW. Go to the Dentist, an MD, and Optometrist, now. Gratia, - JK

Letter Re: Cell Phone E-911 Tracking

Jim,
I think this would come under the heading of privacy....or our losing more and more of it on a daily bases. I got a call from my cell phone company today (US Cellular) they told me that I was going to be required to bring in my old phone...the same one I have had for five years... and trade it for one that was capable of being tracked by 911 (these are the ones with GPS chips in them.) I told them that I did not want to. They told me I had no choice. They said that continuing to use the phone would result in FCC fines. (Has anyone else heard about this?) It seems that the only choice they are letting me have is picking out my new phone. So I'm going to have to do this, and according to them everyone who has an old phone is also going to be required to trade. So, I guess I will also be building a Faraday cage to keep my phone in when not in use. Actually, I'm just going to keep it in an ammo can. Hey, it's my business where I go and what I do, not the government's.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

TEOTWAWKI and the Life Events Stress Scale

I have recently been pondering the far-reaching implications of a grid-down economic collapse situation--commonly called "The End of the World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) in survivalist circles. One of the under-emphasized implications of  TEOTWAWKI will be the psychological stress of the situation--both upon you and upon your neighbors. For many years, psychologists have used the Holmes-Rahe Social Adjustment Scale (also commonly called the "Life Events Stress Scale") to gauge the level of stress that their patients are experiencing. I can foresee that a TEOTWAWKI situation will be off the scale for any of your neighbors that are not prepared. In short, a lot of them are going to come unglued. If you live in a city or suburb, expect to see a lot of your neighbors become so profoundly stressed that they will develop manias, phobias,and compulsions. You can also expect a good portion if them to commit irrational and criminal acts. With both the land line and cellular phone systems down, even if the police are still on duty, they will not know where to respond. I anticipate that the stress level will be lower in rural areas, but still profound. Just the loss of access to the mass media will cause stress in a lots of individuals. Think back to the emotional trauma that the survivors of  Hurricane Katrina went through. Now imagine a nationwide crisis, with no relief in sight. It will be "YOYO" (Your 're on Your Own) time, and it won't be pretty.

The Life Events Stress Scale is a useful tool for characterizing the stress that an individual is experiencing. You've probably seen this scale presented in a high school or college course. Looking at this scale, can you imagine the cumulative level of stress that you will feel when the power grid goes down and the 18-wheelers stop rolling? Now picture yourself as one of your "Joe Sixpack" neighbors. Typically, he has: no food storage plan, no alternative home heating plan, no alternative power system, no stored fuel for his vehicles, no method for treating pond water (when water stops miraculously pouring from the faucet.)  Talk about stress!

Looking at this scale and comparing it with the potential psychological effects of a grid-down economic collapse situation, you can see why I often emphasize:

1.) The importance of living at your intended retreat before times get bad.  Moving by itself is quite stressful.  Can you imagine the stress of moving under duress? How about the stress of having to leave the majority of your possessions behind?  Make the move now and you will obviate that stress.

2.) Communications-- consider the stress of being out of contact with loved ones in the event of TEOTWAWKI. Invest in a HF ham radio transceiver. Someday you may be glad that you did.

3.) Food storage. If you have lots of food stored, you won't have to worry about whether or not you can eat, or the stress of seeing your children go hungry.

4.) Storing extra for charity. Obviously you cannot store enough food to feed all of your neighbors. This is why moving to a rural agricultural area makes sense. Odds are that you will be living in an area where the majority of your neighbors already have a vegetable garden and do home canning. Many will already have livestock. So it will just be a minority that will have no stored food at all. If you have extra wheat, rice, beans, and gardening seed to distribute, then you will be doing your Christian duty, and you will probably be building valuable friendships in the process.

5.) Addictions. What will life for your family be like without cigarettes, alcohol, junk food, and television? The more addictions that you can eliminate now, will equate to less stress after the onset of TEOTWAWKI. The side benefits will be that your family will be healthier and able to withstand the other stresses without succumbing to disease.

6.)  Alternative power and heat. Having no power will be a huge stress.  You can judge how stressful it will be to your family by their present-day reactions to local short-term power failures. How will you cook without power for the stove, oven, or microwave? How will you keep warm? Lights?  What about recreation?  Our kids are book worms but vast majority of children and teenagers that we know de-stress by watching DVDs, playing electronic games, and listening to their music.  Can you supply alternative power for electronic de-stressing devices?

7.)  Long term "house guests." Odds are that you will have relatives arrive on your doorstep on TEOTWAWKI+1.  (You are the member of the family that they tease for being "over-prepared."  But guess where they will go when the Schumer hits the fan? Your house. Think in terms of storing extra gardening tools, gloves, bedding, linens--and even more blankets or tarps to improvise privacy screens, et cetera.  Think this through, folks.

8.)  Life without television. We only owned a  TV for two years of our 18 years of marriage. We sold it before our last move because we concluded that it was a huge waste of time. There is an old saying: "Its easy to get along with what you've never had."

In addition to the major sources of stress that I mentioned, ponder the umpteen minor stressers that will come with TEOTWAWKI. Do your best to eliminate as many sources of stress as possible, in advance.

Reference: "Social Readjustment Rating Scale" - Thomas Holmes and Richard Rahe. Published in Journal of Psychosomatic Research,1967, Vol. II, p. 214.

Letter Re: Illegal Alien Invasion in the United States

Jim:

I noticed that you have remained relatively quiet on the millions of illegal aliens that have been demonstrating in dozens of American cities this past week..was wondering if you considered the Marxist led demonstrations that call for the death, expulsion of Americans on our own soil by foreigners a threat or a concern? I find it disheartening that so many are chiming in about potential asteroid strikes yet no comments about the very real and present threat posed by so many millions right in our own midst. Hope American wake up, its seems that the 12-20 million illegal aliens are quiet awake, hope to see the 280+ million 'legal' Americans as well shake themselves from their slumber and start taking this 'reconquista' as the threat for what it really is. I myself have contacted my representatives here in Idaho, recounting my experiences of living amongst illegal aliens in California and recounting the utter devastation that their presence has proved to be in California (overcrowded schools, overtaxed hospitals, highways, insurance problems associated with non-legal residents, the travesty of a people that largely refuse to learn our language, do not embrace our culture, except for the basic concept of making money.) I find it odd that so many in the survivalist community have largely ignored this 'clear and present danger' and instead are scurrying to renounce supposed racial bigotry when that is not the point. The point is we have been invaded by a foreign people and the flow continues at the rate of a half division of people a day! When I lived in southern California I had several illegal aliens tell me to my face they were planning on 'taking back' the southwest. I was hearing this rhetoric nearly 20 years ago! It is now being said rather publicly and MUCH more frequently. The Marxist leaders of these mass demonstrations have even had the Mexican flags removed and replaced with American flags. (Better to fool the gringo with, I've been told!) The 'Plan of San Diego' has even been trotted out, a plan to 'kill all males 16 and older'. You can Google that as well as all the other key phrase's like 'reconquista' and see for yourself the seriousness of the threat. I hope that the 'survivalist' community decides to comment on this threat and plan accordingly. Best Regards! - JD in Coeur d' Alene, Idaho

JWR Replies: Thanks for your comments. You summed up the situation very succinctly. OBTW, when Googling "reconquista" , I recommend also doing  a search on "Atzlan.")

Although I agree with you that illegal immigration is a big issue, you have to consider that not everyone reading SurvivalBlog lives in the United States.(We have readers in 60 countries--see our hit map.) Our readers in England and Australia probably could care less about U.S. domestic political issues. I have noticed that the immigration issue has been well-covered in other media outlets. Trumpeting the illegal immigration issue on SurvivalBlog probably would not accomplish a lot. (Ditto for a lot of other political issues, which I consciously de-emphasize.) You can see that on a gazillion other blogs and web sites, such as The Barnes Review and American Patrol. Instead, I try to cover the survival-related topics that the MSM overlooks. Scroll through the subject lines for the past three or four weeks of SurvivalBlog postings. (Try finding those topics on CNBC or even on WorldNetDaily!)

Letter Re: Letters on Asteroid or Comet Impact in 2012? by Rourke

Jim:
It was funny that the majority of the criticism to my last writing had to do with the Mayan calendar and the Bible Code since I didn't consider that my main focus and was meant as a lead in. I will say most prophecy is simply too vague to be useful, and the only time it really catches my attention is when separate sources, separated by thousands of miles, hundreds or thousands of years, and of different religions and cultures, somehow reach the same conclusion. My real intent was more so to play "connect the dots" with what NASA and the US Federal Government are doing along these lines. Do you realize that Yucca Mountain is a $48 Billion dollar project, meaning of course it will actually cost several times that (private sector utilities can only dream of that cash outlay). The drilling machine doing it is like the one that made the Chunnel between England and France, and the initial tunnel is 10 miles long. Since the US government won't allow the reclaiming of spent nuclear material (like France does and we should too IMHO), presently all nuclear "waste" is stored on site with each reactor (a method which seems to have been working). If anyone would ask the private sector, I'm sure an above-ground facility on government land in Nevada (since nobody wants it in there back yard and the Federal government owns most of Nevada) could be done for a couple hundred million, and it could then be watched. Bury and forget for 10,000 years doesn't sound like a good strategy, but it does allow for justification of building such a deep and gigantic underground system which could be used for other things. Presently we know about NORAD and Weather Mountain, and presume there are other such huge underground secret government facilities. (http://www.sauderzone.com/ubtlinks.htm -that one is the least UFO-based, so don't start in on that please) Thanks in particular to Michael Williamson for that great link, which really makes the point it happened before, thus it will happen again. Remember, those are just the land strikes. Since the Earth is 2/3 water, statistically twice as many as shown on that site on land - have hit water and no doubt made tsunamis that made the 2005 tsunami one look like nothing. This should be a concern to anyone living anywhere near the ocean, and not on very high ground. Also, I am aware of the propulsion ideas, where land craft would land on an inbound asteroid and then apply thrust to send it off course. The problem there is we currently we lack the technology to do this to a sufficient extent. Comets (or "giant dirty snow balls") are real wild cards, and according to many scientists impossible to stop (but they've been wrong). Remember the Near Earth Object Program has a stated goal of identifying 90% of objects one kilometer or larger, though they are identifying basically everything they can find. The fear is one sneaking up from behind the sun, or some viewpoint we can't see very well, thus giving us almost no warning. The only thing I hope people take away is two fold: 1.) This is a serious threat with a long term proven history of catastrophes, and 2.) Keep an eye on what NASA is doing. If you knew, would you tell people? I agree with the comments that the general pubic (especially considering world wide) would probably not be as cooperative and well-behaved as portrayed in the movie Deep Impact. I'll close this with another movie reference: Remember Close Encounters of the Third Kind? When the Piggly Wiggly semi-trucks start pulling into Yucca Mountain, worry and prepare.- Rourke http://groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat

Odds 'n Sods:

The Army Aviator mentioned this great article by Bob Carter in England about the global warming issue.

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SurvivalBlog reader "KYPD" mentioned that Mel Tappan's book Survival Guns is now back in print. You can get a copy at Delta Press for only $24.95. Delta Press also has many other very handy books such as "Nuclear War Survival Skills", "Where There Is No Doctor", Where There Is No Dentist", "Ditch Medicine" and other hard to find titles.

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Of interest to home schoolers--and anyone else interested in U.S. history: The story of the Gadsen ("Don't Tread on Me") flag.

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The dates for more rifle matches and clinics for the RWVA Apleseed Tour have been inked in:
Indiana, Evansville: April 29/30
Wyoming, Guernsey: May 13/14
Wyoming, Worland: May 27, 28, 29 (in conjunction with Boston T. Party's Free State Wyoming Jamboree- but open to everyone!
Idaho, Coeur d'Alene: June 10/11
Alabama, Birmingham: June 24/25

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From Gold -Eagle: Philip Barton's Commentary on Market Fundamentals.

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"When written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity." - John F. Kennedy

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Four Letters Re: Asteroid or Comet Impact in 2012? by Rourke

Jim:

I'd like to add some input to the meteor thread. First, there's a near complete (based on our knowledge) and growing database at: http://www.unb.ca/passc/ImpactDatabase/ that shows the residual effects of quite a few impacts. Megaton range impacts occur surprisingly frequently--about once a century. Tunguska level events (that killed almost everything in 2000 sq miles) occur about every thousand years.
I don't like Deep Impact as a scenario, because I cannot for the life of me see 300 million Americans, not to mention the rest of the world, just accepting that a select few will go into a safe cavern, without a global riot that would likely end civilization in the process.
The original and accurate story of this type of impact, involving a comet in this case, was Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's "Lucifer's Hammer," which I recommend all survival minded readers check out. It covers panic reaction prior to the event and during, and coping mechanisms for a post-holocaust world, including the problems (in 1976) that many children would have without TV. Add cell phones and computers to that (This is a serious emotional issue for current military recruits denied their cell phones and Internet for a couple of months) and a great many young people who can't grasp the destruction will still be in psychological shock. Add in food, transport, disease and bandits, and it's a grim tale without being excessively emotional.
The best way to deal with Earth-grazing asteroids is not to attempt to blow them up, but to use charges to divert them--a subsurface detonation can move enough mass to act as a rocket. This causes the asteroid to divert into another orbit that doesn't intersect with Earth. Any large enough mass can't be destroyed, but will gravitationally coalesce back into an effectively solid mass in fairly short order.
Related threats include the potential of Yellowstone every 650,000 years (It's been about 650,000 years) to erupt and spew 200 cubic MILES of ejecta into the atmosphere. And a sufficient earthquake could trigger multiple Cascade Range eruptions from California's Mt. Baker all the way up into Alaska. I've been threatening to write the SF story of a 50 megaton impact in Yellowstone triggering it, the Cascades, the San Andreas and New Madrid faults...
Speaking of the New Madrid Fault, it's potentially more dangerous than San Andreas--the soil structure of the eastern US is such that ground waves are possible with a strong tremor. The effects could travel as far as the Carolinas and Pennsylvania. I'll leave everyone with those cheery thoughts of Mother Nature for now. - Michael Z. Williamson

James
I had the opportunity to speak to one of the Bible code team rabbis and this is important for people planning their future to know. Bible code only works on five books of Torah. It doesn't predict the future only several possible outcomes. Its purpose is to show evidence divine inspiration by being several hundred thousand times more organized and patterned than normal text.  Mayan calendar or any non -Torah based prophecy is derived either from necromancy or astrology. These two methods may appear effective but they are reading from the wrong end of the process and their purpose is to give free will to reject prayer as the real answer. [When you] rejects the Creator and worship the creation and your life will be ruled by the stars, I choose to be in the hands of G-d who moves worlds at his whim.

A comet strike story is well told in [Niven and Pournelle's novel] Lucifer's Hammer which covers many survival topics one of my favorites. If such a strike comes to pass it like all of life is just a step toward the final redemption. Happy and Kosher Pesech  (Our big bug out from Egypt) - David in Israel

Sir:
Rourke needs to check his facts. The Aztec calendar does not end in 2012 or any other date. It is as open ended a calendar as any other. There is a neat astronomical alignment at the end of 13-baktun/21dec2012, but that's all it is- scientifically speaking anyway.- K

Mr. Rawles:
Good article on asteroid impacts. But as it lead off with the Mayan calendar ending in 2012, I must comment. What no one seems to mention when they talk about the end date is that it might not mean a darn thing. The Mayan civilization ended from resource depletion. Doesn't it stand to reason maybe the guys that were making the calendar died off before they could finish the job? Sorry, I just had to comment. Take care, Great job, - Jim

Odds 'n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader R.H. forwarded us a link to an accurate summation of the illegal immigration situation in the U.S. by Cinnamon Stillwell.

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I just stumbled across a downloadable version of Mel Tappan's book, "Tappan on Survival." It is a "must read" for anyone who is serious about preparedness.

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SurvivalBlog reader "Merlin" mentioned that the documentary series "Victory at Sea" has recently been spotted on sale in WalMart DVD "dump bins" for only $5.50 for the entire series. It is one of my favorite documentaries. (I included it my list of recommend videos in my Bookshelf page.)

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." - Theodore Roosevelt, Address at the Sorbonne, 1910

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Note from JWR:  If you have not yet visited the web sites for each of our advertisers, please do so. They have some hard to find products at great prices.

The Silver Bull Gains Speed

Just over a month ago we were marveling at the fact that silver was solidly over $10 per ounce. I just checked the charts at kitco.com, (see: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html) and spot silver was at $12.80 per ounce! (As a data point: The New York close was at $12.05 just four days ago--Friday April 7th. Quite a change since then!)  At the current spot price, means that a $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 circulated ("junk") silver U.S. coinage worth $9,152 wholesale. (Assuming 715 ounces in a typical bag of well-worn coins.)

The silver market is showing all of the signs of a major long-term bull. Rather than the typical rallies and pull-backs, it is now "stair-stepping" upward. Thus, there is presently no chance to "buy on the dips" unless perhaps you buy on intraday dips.

The word on the street is that if New York spot silver closes at over $12.50 an ounce for three days in a row, then there will likely be a big short covering rally, or perhaps even a full scale "short squeeze." As the short sellers scramble to cover their positions, we may see silver to zoom up to $16 an ounce, or higher. I'm still predicting $20 silver by next February ('07), and perhaps even $40 silver by the end of Aught Eight.

Asteroid or Comet Impact in 2012?, by Rourke

The abrupt ending of the Mayan calendar in December of 2012 has long been assumed to be an astrological catastrophic event for Earth (http://survive2012.com). More recently, the Bible Code has produced passages/matrixes that seem to announce a comet impact in 2012 (http://www.satansrapture.com/nasa2012.htm). [JWR Adds: Beware! Not Biblically supported doctrine at that site!] There are said to be two conflicting matrixes, once saying the Earth is annihilated, the other that the comet is annihilated. I realize what most people think of prophecy (unreliable, to say the least), so let’s take a more scientific look at this, and consider that if there was such an asteroid or comet coming and our government knew this, what would the government actually do about it?
Before I start, I should make sure that some key words are defined. An asteroid is a celestial body found especially between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter (asteroid belt). It is theorized that a planet, or beginnings of planet once existed between Mars and Jupiter, but that the extreme gravity of mighty and gigantic Jupiter busted it up into pieces. A meteor is a particle of matter in the solar system that are directly observable only by their incandescence from frictional heating on entry into the atmosphere (visible during Earth atmosphere entry as they usually burn up). Once a meteor hits the ground, anything you find of it is a meteorite. A comet is celestial body that consists of a fuzzy head usually surrounding a bright nucleus, and that when its orbit is near the sun develops a long tail which points away from the sun (has a big tail).
The idea or realization of large meteors striking the Earth and doing great damage is largely new to 20th Century thinking. The first proven meteorite creator is in Arizona http://www.meteorcrater.com/, http://www.barringercrater.com/science/ and in the early 1900s the owner went bankrupt searching and drilling for the meteorite as proof, when it is now believed it exploded on impact (sending tiny bits everywhere, thus leaving no large meteorite to be found). The famous and mysterious Tungsuka impact in Siberia of 1908 http://newsfromrussia.com/society/2002/06/29/31473.html is now recognized to be a meteor impact which completely exploded above the ground (thus leaving trees dead center under the blast still standing). Finally of course there is the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, which is believed to have killed 70% of all life on Earth at that time.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/06/0617_020617_fossilleaves.html You may be surprised to learn that this was not the only such mass extinction http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/diapsids/extinction.html, and there have be more. However, it was really the spectacular 1994 impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into the planet Jupiter which ended the speculation about asteroids or comets impacting into planets. http://www.solarviews.com/eng/impact.htm
As this article points out, one look at our very pock-marked moon should be an indication asteroids we have and will likely continue to be hit both the moon and the Earth (erosion over time, from water, helps hide the Earth’s wounds). http://www.thesahara.net/asteroid_2002_nt7.htm. The results to us of such an impact would of course be disastrous, depending on the size, speed, and make-up of the asteroid or comet. http://www.sandia.gov/media/comethit.htm And also see.. http://www.pibburns.com/catastro/impacts.htm. However, just like with nuclear winter, if you survive the initial blast and any generated tsunamis (serious concern since Earth is 2/3 water of course), and stay underground, out of the potentially abusive weather, and wait for everything to settle out of the atmosphere, you can survive. But let's focus on the issue of stopping the comet or asteroid in the first place…
In the past 25 years, Hollywood has taken a few takes on this issue of stopped an inbound asteroid or comet, and the work they did is worthy of consideration as a starting point. What I am trying to do is look at the facts, and then employ the “what would I do” method of backward engineering government decisions. In the recent movie remake of Pearl Harbor, Dan Akroyd, playing the role of an intelligence officer, is asked why he thinks Japan would hit Pearl Harbor when he has no hard evidence. He replies, “Well, it’s what I would do”. Such will be my approach here.

The 1979 movie “Meteor” starring Sean Connery introduced the concept of using nuclear warheads to try and destroy an incoming meteor (or asteroid actually, before it hits the Earth’s atmosphere). The movie Armageddon in 1996 took the thinking to the next level, realizing that surface explosions would be insufficient to break up an asteroid, and thus presented the idea of astronauts going to the asteroid and then “drilling” the nukes into the asteroid as the best approach to bust it up, or into two pieces at least. This production, staring Bruce Willis, was certainly exciting, but a little too fantastic. The most realistic of the movies made, IMHO, would be Deep Impact, released in 1998. The primary plan was similar to the Armageddon plot, which of course is simply too fantastic and unnecessary, but it was the government’s contingency plan C which really interested me. This was that if the astronaut mission failed (Plan A), and if a bunch of ICBMs launched when it was near Earth (Plan B) failed, there would be a national lottery for one million people (none over age 50 and 200,000 pre-selected government officials and scientists of course) to survive in a Ark made up of man made caves drilled into Missouri limestone with enough supplies to last 2 years (Plan C – “the rules of 3” right from Ragnar Benson, author of The Survival Retreat and others). Wages and prices were frozen, and people were made to "go to work and pay your bills". Martial Law was declared and people were to be home at night. "Hoarding" was not allowed (though I still think that is a term not really defined as to where the line is, and the term is used as if people just seem to understand where that line is). There was an optimistic plan A and B which kept people going, and hoping, and in the movie that seemed to work and hold off the riots, though they did show characters putting up bars over their windows, meaning there were some problems. Other countries were left to do as they could.
Now let’s look at the facts, real life. NASA currently operates the Near Earth Object Program, who’s stated purpose is to identify 90% (highest they think they can get to) of the objects in space that may come into contact with the Earth. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov If you have never seen this site, take a look. Check out Close Approaches and Impact Risk in particular, but you will have to brush up on your math to remember how very large numbers are presented to the powers format with the little number superscript (i.e. thousand = 1000 = 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 103). In Close Approaches, note that a Lunar Distance (LD) is the average distance from the Earth to moon (~384,000 km or ~240,000 miles). So if an asteroid was going to pass 16 LDs from Earth, that would be 16 times the distance from the Earth to Moon.
Now before you laugh this off as such an event being less likely than you winning the Powerball lottery, you had better take a look at this link: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news149.html That one in going to miss the Earth by only 5.7 times the diameter of the Earth in 2029. That asteroid also has a diameter of 320 meters or over 1040 feet. How much damage could that do? Well let’s look back to the damage caused by the Arizona meteorite which was only 150 feet in diameter (<50 meters) http://www.barringercrater.com/effects/. We are probably talking about wiping out the better part of Texas here or worse. Note that the article says this is BELOW the level of geosynchronous Earth satellites. One more thing about the Powerball lottery; Why do people pay money to play something they know they have a less than 1 in hundred million chance of winning? Answer: Because the payoff is so large. Now reverse that logic as to asteroids; Why should you worry about the very very small chance a large asteroid or comet will collide with the Earth? Because the payoff is so large if it does.
Now I want to insert the “what would I do” if I was with NASA. My very first comment is that you don’t need a manned mission to nuke an asteroid or comet headed for Earth. There are two methods to “drill” a nuke into an asteroid. First would be to land a probe and have it land on the asteroid that had such automated capacity to drill a nuke in. I will note that this part was done back in 2001. Remember the landing on Eros? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1148071.stm and http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/solar_system/59734
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1162463.stm )
The second way makes more sense to me and is actually easier to do IMHO. Here you want to punch a nuke into the asteroid so you can just aim the satellite right into it. Torpedo it. The trick though is developing a nuke that would survive the harsh impact and then blow up at depth inside the steel or rocky asteroid or comet. The military calls these "bunker busting" weapons, originally made from old cannon barrels, and non-nuclear variants are nothing new at all, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_bunker_buster. It is interesting to note that exactly such a nuke has been in the research and development works of the US Pentagon for some time now. It’s called a RNEP for Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/rnep.htm ). This remains an issue of Congressional funding http://www.ananuclear.org/rnep.html Clearly using a penetrating bunker buster type tactical nuclear bomb could work for an asteroid or comet. Rather than going through the difficulties of a landing on an asteroid or comet and drilling, we could merely proceed with the presumably easier task of merely intercepting it (torpedoing it). This was exactly what the 2005 Deep Impact probe did by hitting an asteroid at 23,000 mph, a mere 200 feet off its target on a city-sized asteroid.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2005-07-03-deep-impact_x.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26386-2005Apr4.html
It is clear IMHO that scientists are considering this method for dealing with an inbound asteroid or comet. They even call this entire line of thinking deep impact.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/index.html
http://deepimpact.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.html
Billions have now been spent developing exactly the technologies needed to deal with an incoming asteroid or comet. The question is, was there merely done a precautionary science, or do they have a reason to keep this research moving along. Consider it. What would you do, if you knew?

One final thought: As in the movie Deep Impact would the government build a gigantic underground shelter to house people for this period time as a backup plan? How could they hide such an operation of such scale? Perhaps by building it for a different purpose (cover story, or perhaps real alternative)? Where is the government spending billions hollowing out a mountain right now? Answer: Yucca Mountain NV. Why? For spent nuclear storage, officially. http://www.epa.gov/radiation/yucca/ And what is the proposed completion date before this becomes operational? I'm not joking. They say "2012 or later." See: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,165203,00.html, http://ocrwm.doe.gov/ymp/index.shtml, and http://www.nsc.org/ehc/yuccamt.HTM

Here are two other sites of interest:
Meteor showers http://home.att.net/~thehessians/asteroidstrike.html
Meteor Impact game http://www.barringercrater.com/game/

- Rourke http://groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat

Letter from David in Israel Re: On Eating Insects, by Maui Mike

James,
In reference to eating bugs: Jews who settled in Yemen after the destruction of the first Temple and stayed there until the 1960s had the tradition of eating and
identifying the kosher locusts. My Temani (Yemeni) friend in Kollel did not know what the identifiers were.

As for kosher and survival, I quote my old Rav from Portland, Oregon "If someone held a gun to my head and said 'Eat that pork chop!' my answer would be 'where's the
catsup?'" Your Maker and Keeper wants you to live so you can glorify him, the mitzvah of saving a life includes your own.- David

Odds 'n Sods:

Cathy Buckle's recent letters from Zimbabwe are "must reads."  Have you ever considered the prospect of hyperinflation in the future?  Some folks are living through it in Zimbabwe right now. Here are two brief quotes from Cathy's letters in March: "In March 2005 a loaf of bread was four thousand eight hundred dollars. In March 2006 that same loaf is sixty six thousand dollars. Unless something dramatic happens in the next few weeks and assuming prices continue to rise at their present rate, a loaf of bread in March 2007 will be nine hundred and eight thousand [Zimbabwean] dollars. Imagine, almost a million dollars for a loaf, what shame upon Zimbabwe. It is impossible to believe that just six years ago we were called the 'Breadbasket of Africa'." And, "You see a familiar product, put your hand out and then gasp in despair when you realise that just a bottle of shampoo costs 1.2 million [Zimbabwean] dollars. Five years ago I could have bought a prime luxury car for just over a million dollars."

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Signs of the times: Russian airline passengers will soon face lie detector tests.

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A reader recommend this great blog site for Christian youth: Turning the Tide.

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"No arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. - Ronald Reagan

Monday, April 10, 2006

On Eating Insects, by Maui Mike

In an TEOTWAWKI scenario, securing a renewable source of protein and fat is vital. While previous postings have discussed how family chicken farms have kept people alive during the last depression and the viability of rabbits, I'd like to add my two cents in. It started with my learning about hydroponics. Hydroponics is the growing of plants in nutrient enriched water without soil. Then I learned about aquaponics. In this instance fish are raised in tanks (aquaculture) and plants are raised hydroponically and the systems are merged. In this way, the nitrogen rich excrement of the fish feeds the plants and the plants filter the water for the fish. This system now provides both protein and plants, but you still need to feed the fish. My feverishly inventive mind (FIM) thought 'why not keep the tanks outdoors (I live in Hawaii) and put modified bug zappers over the fish tanks so that rather than collecting the insects, they would drop into the fish tank directly thus feeding my fish for free'. Add solar-powered water pumps and a battery powered bug zapper and viola!
Then I thought that for every pound of fish, I would have to go through many more pounds of insects, and it seemed a waste of protein so I bought some books on entomophagy (insect eating). Man Eating Bugs (best), Creepy Crawly Cuisine and the Eat-A-Bug Cookbook are all good reads.
Here's some of what I learned. There are 1,417 known edible species of insects. The most popular insects for eating are Beetles, butterflies, moths, bees, wasps, ants, grasshoppers, crickets, termites, locusts, flies, mosquitoes, water boatmen, backswimmers, worms, spiders and stink bugs. Flavors include: nutty, sweet, herring, corn, apples, pumpkin, bread, pine nut, avocado to whatever the insects have been recently eating.
Most edible insects range from 30 to 85% high-quality protein and many are excellent sources of fat (See butterworms and waxworms for fat content. Note, these are not really worms but larvae). As long as you do not have an allergy to seafood (the chitin in the seafood is the same as in the exoskeleton of many insects, eating insects, as long as they are cooked presents little health risk. (Assuming that the insects are not being exposed to insecticides...).
Some notes:
When cleaning and preparing them.
1) Remove any dead insects
2) Do not feed them for four hours before eating them
3) Put them in a bag in the fridge for 15 minutes if they are mobile like grasshoppers to slow them down.
4) Avoid freezing as this reduces flavor, but you can store them for a long time in the fridge and they will stay alive.
5) Remove wings and legs if present
6) Cook at over 410 degrees F to kill any germs

All in all, I think earthworms the best to raise and eat and here's why:
1) No crunchy exoskeleton to get in your teeth
2) Easy to dehydrate, powder and add to breads or soups
3) Flavor not bad
4) Lumbrokinase enzyme in worms cleans plaque out of the arteries
5) Not picky eaters, no specialized food requirements so they are easy to raise
6) Double in size in 60-90 days
7) Can't fly away
8) Only one stage (no pupae/larvae) so they can all raised together at any growth stage without eating each other
9) You can get them from the ground, no starter kit required
10) 70% protein

I've forgotten my higher math, but I think that you should be able to harvest about 1% a day (under optimal conditions) without loosing your 'worm capital'. Let's say .5% to be on the safe side. If a person needs a minimum of 40 grams of protein a day, a family of four would need 160 grams a day. That's 228 grams of worm a day. At .5% you would need about 100 pounds (45,600 grams) growing at any one time (please check my math).
100 pounds could easily be grown (either building up over time or getting 100 pounds to start) in an apartment in the city. There are compost kits you can buy or you can make your own. Most are designed for composting foods and harvesting the worm castings for the garden rather than mass worm production so you'll have to dig in with your hands to get the worms out and clean them off (no big deal).
I think this the optimal covert city 'livestock' farm. You can feed them your leftovers and collect remains from restaurants and grow them silently and vertically in a closet. If someone broke into your apartment seeing how well fed you appeared and searched for your 'food' all they would find would be worms...
Another hint. Before eating them, put them in flour for a few hours. This will purge their intestines and fill them with flour (nice for baking).
While I think worms the best for many reasons, if you are outdoors, consider the black light Thai cricket farm: Two fluorescent UV black lights are suspended high above a clear plastic sheet that glows blue from their reflection. Crickets are attracted to the lights, hit the plastic and slide down into a bucket placed below it and drown. You may have to empty the bucket every few hours as this is very effective at catching them. The setup is shown on page 50 of Man Eating Bugs.
Consider insects in your cache of survival knowledge.
Bug Sources:
Grubco 1-800-222-3563
Hatari Invertebrates 520-558-2418
There are scientific supply houses that carry a large variety of insects but they are more expensive so use them only for you initial breeding stock, not for bulk purchases...

JWR Adds: For those readers that feel bound by Levitical law, consider: "All flying insects that walk on all fours are to be detestable to you. There are, however, some winged creatures that walk on all fours that you may eat: those that have jointed legs for hopping on the ground. Of these you may eat any kind of locust, katydid, cricket or grasshopper. But all other winged creatures that have four legs you are to detest." - Leviticus 11

Letter Re:  Test Sources for Radiation Meters--The Cesium Source Already in Your Home

James:

RE: > I also didn't buy the use of a smoke detector to test a CDV survey meter so I checked it out. Didn't show squat since that meter is relatively insensitive.
Oh, I also tried a smoke detector with my Digilert-100 from http://www.seintl.com.. This detector reads Alpha, Beta, Gamma and X-rays. Nada.

BTW, the Digilert has available some neat software that I use to track background radiation on a daily basis.
Normal background here in Colorado is between 20 and 39 counts per minute.
The unit also has an alarm level that can be set to any given level of radiation. I keep mine at 50 Counts per minute. The only time it ever went off was on the interstate while passing one of those semi flatbeds carrying two big concrete cylinders. (Probably a radiation waste transport). needless to say, I made a distinct effort not to pace HIM anymore.
I've been using the old yellow CDV radiation detectors and haven't noticed any deterioration with the chamber.
As a note, the CDV-700 (with the wand, a true geiger counter) also will see background if you cheat. With the probe cover opened (roll it around until the slots are open, but NEVER use it in service with the cover open) , and the adjustment turned up, you will see background radiation. I used the Digilert-100 and adjusted the screw pot on one of the CDV-700's until it matched the background count on the Digilert-100. Amazingly enough when done, the CDV-700 mostly passed the check using the beta source on the side of the unit. Needle went a little high than it was supposed to, but not much. Maybe I should say it was close enough for Government work.
The German surplus dosimeters from Major Surplus also passed testing at a local metallurgical shop with a source.
All in all, my two cents worth is everybody oughta have some of the above, just like a spare tire in your trunk.
I just hope I never have the occasion to see a reading on the less sensitive survey meters! (Insert wry smile here.)

A thought to keep in mind about battery chargers. I'm sure that a sizeable percentage of readers of this blog have rechargeable batteries and battery chargers. I wonder how many of those battery chargers require AC power (normal house electricity) to work. Keep in mind there are some great DC battery charges out there. Most will power up with 12 Volts DC and charge NiCd, NiMh, Li-ion and Lead Acid batteries from 1.2 volts to 30 volts DC.
Could make the difference sometime. (Hint, keep it in the car and it will even charge your cell phone Li-ion battery with two paper clips and a little ingenuity.

I forgot to mention that I always have that Washington, D.C. status symbol with me--my NukAlert from http://www.ki4u.com
Wouldn't be without it. Amazing how many "civil servants" (Please note the quote marks) in D. C. have this device. If I was in D.C. very often, I'd probably carry two, just kidding. But seriously, it does provide peace of mind. Best Regards, - The Army Aviator

Odds 'n Sods:

The Mogambo Guru (Richard Daughty) thinks that the "Two Trillion in Fresh Cash rumor is unfounded.

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From the London Telegraph: British Government Makes Secret Preparations for "Waves" of Asian Avian Flu Pandemic Exceeding Six Months

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I just heard that Gun Parts Guy is having a big clearance sale on some assorted FAL and L1A1 parts. (Carriers, slings, top covers, carry handles, scope mounts, flash hiders, sights, et cetera.) Please mention SurvivalBlog if you place an order. The sale ends on April 17th.

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Bush Administration Contingency Plans for War with Iran?

Jim's Quote of the Day:

Timon: This looks like a good spot to rustle up some grub.
Young Simba: What's that?
Timon: A grub. What's it look like?
[Timon eats the grub]
Young Simba: Ewwwww, gross.
Timon: Tastes like chicken.  - The Lion King

Sunday, April 9, 2006

Two Letters Re:  Test Sources for Radiation Meters--The Cesium Source Already in Your Home

Mr. Rawles,
I'm very suspicious of the information from "Ole Rad" that you could test a Civil Defense field survey meter with the radiation that comes from a smoke
detector. Several things in his post don't add up:
1) Smoke detectors use Americium-241 as their source and the radiation at 1 meter distance is "less than 1/1000th of that from background radiation" (source: http://www.arpansa.gov.au/is_smkdt.htm).
2) The CDV-777-2 is the radiation detection kit which contains a field survey meter, dosimeters, and a dosimeter charger. The kit might also contain a CDV-700 geiger counter, but that has it's own beta check source on the side. Also, the CDV-700 uses 4 D cells, while a CDV-715 or 717 uses 1 D cell. The CDV-720 uses 2 D cells.
3) It takes a minimum of 0.1 R/h (or 100 mR/h) to defect the needle to the "1" position on the meter for a CDV-715, 717, or 720 field survey meter set
to the lowest range (meter reading x 0.1 R/h). A 1 microCurie Cesium-137 source emits about 2 milli-R/h at the surface. Thus, it would take 50 of these sources together to produce 0.1 R/h. A low-level source can be used with a field survey meter, but it requires a special pancake probe instead of the ion chamber. Regards, - A.C.

JWR Replies: In my estimation, Ole Rad's advice only applies to Geiger counters with a low (highly sensitive) range.

Jim:

There has been some confusion lately about the surplus civil defense radiation gear. Here is a quick rundown on what you might find.
Survey Meters
CDV-715, CDV-717, CDV-720 - These are what's known as a "high range" meter. They use a device called an ion chamber to measure life- threatening levels of radiation. They were intended to be distributed to fallout shelters in the event of a nuclear war, so that radiation levels outside could be monitored and reported. This type of unit WILL NOT detect low levels of radiation, such as that from a "dirty" bomb, a radium-dial clock, smoke detector or tritium gun sight. About the only way to make the needle move much on one of these is to expose it to a large gamma source (such as in a calibration lab or cancer treatment facility). You may be able to test one of these by exposing it to a doctor or dentist's X-ray machine. Set the meter on the lowest range and see what happens.
Most of these have a self-check circuit that can let you know if the basic electronics are functional. If you are serious about keeping one or more of these around for a real emergency, you should definitely get it calibrated and serviced. The KI4U folks can get this done, and there are several other facilities that will calibrate these meters. Expect to pay $20-75 for a meter in good shape, and possibly another $100+ for calibration.
CDV-700 - This is a true Geiger counter. You can easily spot these by the "hot dog" shaped probe attached to it via a cable. These are pretty sensitive, and will pick up small radioactive items, such as radium-dial watches. Tritium gun sights are just too weak to be detected by any common detector. Also, these have small test source affixed to the side that you can use to instantly test if the meter is working. These usually sell for $100+, and would be much more appropriate for detecting fallout from a dirty bomb, nuke plant accident, etc. These were designed for checking people, food, etc for small amounts of contamination.
Along with the Civil Defense surplus, there are a number of newly made Geiger counters, usually from Russian companies. Harbor Freight sometimes has one called the Quartex, and there is another one called the RKSB-104. You can often find these on eBay.
Dosimeters
These are small, yellow sticks that look like a big crayon. Unlike a survey meter or geiger counter, these do not instantly show you how much radiation they are being exposed to at the moment. Rather, you wear them around, and they let you know how much total dosage you received over a day, month, etc. Like the survey meters, these come in high and low-range models. The good ones are made by Bendix. Avoid the other brands, unless they are of new commercial manufacture (such as Dosimeter Corp).
CDV-741,742 - High range (0-100 or 0-200 RADS). Useful after a nuclear war, not useful for much else.
CDV-138 - Low range (0-200 Millirads). Useful for working around an X- ray machine, checking if you got exposed from a small source or accidental leak. Much more rare than the other type.
The dosimeters must be charged before they are useful. Look for a CDV-750 or similar charger. You can test dosimeters by charging them up (this sets the needle to zero) and then leaving them sitting for a couple of weeks. If some of them rapidly leak down to zero, they are bad. Otherwise, these items have a very long useful life. They have no batteries, and only need the charger to put a static electricity charge into a small piece of fiber. The static charge leaks off it when exposed to radiation.
Here are links to more than you ever wanted to know about Civil Defense gear:
http://www.civildefensemuseum.com/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CDV700CLUB/
Thanks, - JN

Letter Re: Too Good to be True? Nationally Advertised Radiation Detector for $60?

Hi James,
Regarding the post from Wednesday about the old rad meters for $60, they were about the only thing easily available before Y2K. At that time the conventional wisdom, (which I am almost certain goes back to Bruce Beach, since he was selling piles of old Canadian ones for 50 bucks) is that the ionizing chamber can deteriorate over time and to be safe you must multiply by a factor of four when using it. If it reads 5 R, figure it is 20 R. If it reads 20 R, figure it is 80 R. This should definitely keep you safe.

By the way, Shane at ki4u.com calibrates rad meters and the turn around time is currently 10 days. See here: http://www.radmeters4u.com/calibrate.htm

Shane has said in posting at the doomer-prepper forum www.timebomb2000.com that if you carry a rad meter in your car where it gets heated, frozen, and bumped around, it should be recalibrated yearly.

By the way if your readers are not familiar with Nukalerts, they are a great little gadget.

God bless, - Lyn

JWR Replies: I agree that recalibration is a good idea. Also keep in mind the radioactive decay of test sources. If your test source is tritium, since tritium has a half-life of 11.2 years, then obviously if your test source is 11 or 12 years old then your meter will only indicate one half of the reading versus a fresh test source.

I also agree that the NukAlert is a great product. They are available from Ready Made Resources and several other vendors.

Rebuttal Letter from Spencer Feldman, Re: Suggestions for the Acute Management of a H5N1 Pandemic

In rebuttal to the letter posted by Dr. BCE on Saturday, April 8, 2006:

Dear Dr. BCE:

My article is entitled "Suggestions" not answers to the Avian flu. We are currently in the process of testing the product on H5N1 patients in Asia. Time will tell if it works and to what degree. Dr. BCE, if you think you have a better idea of what to do, then by all means post it. I don't mean this in an adversarial way, I'd really like to see another protocol, any protocol. Until I see someone else step up to the plate and offer another protocol, I'll stick with what I've done. Survival is never guaranteed, you do the best with what you have.

OBTW, I read back through some of the past archives [in SurvivalBlog] about the use of elderberry extract. To clarify what I said in the article, elderberry is great for the common flu but for the H5N1, it must be balanced with a TNFa inhibitor like tumeric. Otherwise the benefits of the elderberry may be outweighed by the increased cytokine storm it also engenders.

Sincerely, - Spencer Feldman

Odds 'n Sods:

The $44 Trillion Mountain of Debt

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SurvivalBlog reader RBS recommended a site with some very revealing reading on what your bank might consider a "red flag", at the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council Bank Secrecy Act/Anti-Money Laundering InfoBase.

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Does anyone have anything more substantial than "a confidential source" or "According to our sources in the U.S. Treasury" about the rumors swirling around Washington D.C. that the Federal Reserve is printing an extra Two Trillion U.S. Dollars in cash? (Also repeated at OSS.net.)  These kind of rumors drive me crazy.  In the past two weeks I've had more than 60 e-mails from readers on this topic, which I have refrained from posting. Please, please, somebody point me something official--or otherwise substantiated, otherwise let's write this off as unfounded rumor-mongering.

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An interesting piece of serious FFTAGFFR on Islam, Terrorism, and Category Error.

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Times of London Reports: World cannot meet oil demand

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"It is He who got out the Unbelievers among the People of the Book [Jews and Christians] from their homes at the first gathering (of the forces). Little did ye think that they would get out: and they thought that their fortresses would defend them from Allah! But the (wrath of) Allah came to them from quarters from which they little expected (it) and cast terror into their hearts so that they destroyed their dwellings by their own hands and the hands of the Believers. Take warning then O ye with eyes (to see)!"  - Surah Al-Hashr Ruku 1 (A.Yusuf Ali Translation of the Qur’an)

Saturday, April 8, 2006

Note from JWR: Today we welcome two new advertisers:

First, a gentlemen in Colorado, who is selling the most elaborate underground retreat house that I have ever seen. Even if you aren't currently looking for real estate, be sure to look at his web pages. You are bound to learn a lot about retreat architecture! Something tells me that given the "niche" readership of SurvivalBlog that this property will not be on the market long! OBTW, unless you are a serious potential buyer, please do not pester the owner with questions!

Second, Bear Basin Outfitters, one of the nations' premier optics dealers. I am quite impressed with the breadth and depth of their product lines. They also have great prices. Please consider them the next time that you plan to buy a traditional scope, tritium or LED-lit reticle scope, bullet-drop compensating scope, night vision scope, spotting scope, laser range finder, shooting glasses, or binoculars. Tell them that Jim Rawles at SurvivalBlog sent you!

Letter Re:  Test Sources for Radiation Meters--The Cesium Source Already in Your Home

Mr. Rawles:
The following is an excerpt from an interesting string of conversation on Survival Forum about calibrating a survey meter. I don't know this as fact, but if true. It would useful info. I should say that the poster that posted this has been reliable in the past, and well-documented.

I asked Ole Rad 'bout the calibration of me CD 777-2 survey meter. Says he-- "1 microcurie of Cesium 137 should cause a defection." Purty cool, huh? Turns out 1 microcurie source of Cesium 137 is a common smoke detector-- that only took me two days ta find out. So's I load the ole D battery , which falls out of the battery holder in a CD777-2 without taping the battery in place.Set the scale for the lowest setting and zero the thing-circuit test gives a full deflection. Cool, huh? So's I take the meter out of its box and touch the chamber to the smoke detector little black box of cesium and -- I get a needle deflection of one mark-- that would be 1 microcurie. The durn thing is still in calibration and working fine.Only took me two days to figure out. Da**it, Rad-- why didn't ya say what a 1 microcurie Cesium 137 source was? I was ready to order some bag of ore or sumthin and I had the source to check me meter right on my wall.

Again, great blog. I will be praying about your change in employment. Regards, - C.K.

Letter Re: Suggestions for the Acute Management of a H5N1 Pandemic, by Spencer Feldman

Hi,
I read with concern the post yesterday (Friday 7th April) about Avian influenza. The post while appearing to be well referenced, in fact misrepresents what many of the trials and studies referred to actually state. The general implication is that there is a vast body of scientific research supporting the authors position. This is not the case at all, the articles do not say this and the authors spin on what some say misrepresents them. The majority are very early in-vitro or animal model studies which do not translate at all in terms of efficacy in humans. Most biomedical scientists would agree that only about 1:500-1000 of these very early trials will go on to a meaningful application in human medicine - it is plain wrong and intellectually dishonest to use them as the author has done here. Cheers. - Dr. BCE from New Zealand

Odds 'n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader S.H. mentioned a Big Listing of Shelter Manufacturers--All different types, in ground (steel and fiberglass), above ground, and inside safe room retrofit types:

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Ireland's Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has their Newsletter #64 (April, 2006) now available. The newsletter is not yet transcribed for best online viewing, but you can download the PDF file directly: http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/...200604.pdf

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An interesting article on Asian Avian Flu and Your Cat

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Wow! Take a look at the 30 Day and Six Month Gold and Silver spot price charts at Kitco. This bull market seems to have no intention of slowing down!

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"The human race has had long experience and a fine tradition in surviving adversity. But we now face a task for which we have little experience, the task of surviving prosperity.” - Alan Gregg

Friday, April 7, 2006

Note from JWR:  Thanks for all of the recent 10 Cent Challenge contributions. At this juncture I should mention that starting Saturday I will be foregoing my corporate salary and benefits to take up writing SurvivalBlog, full time. (Read: Big leap of faith.) I don't want to drone on and on and on like some dreaded PBS telethon about this. The bottom line: If you find some value in what you read here, then please consider subscribing for 10 cents a day. Thanks!

Suggestions for the Acute Management of a H5N1 Pandemic, by Spencer Feldman

The H5N1 (Asian Avian Flu or "Bird Flu") virus owes its lethality to its ability to instigate pathological immune responses in the host via cytokine storm. This leads to disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and massive infiltration of inflammatory cells into the lungs. Thus, any H5N1 protocol must take into consideration, not only the inhibition of the virus, but also the effects of DIC and alveolar flooding.
Given that there are reports of some patients dying within three hours of initial symptoms, any medical response must be swift and aggressive.
Traditional models for treatment outside of a hospital setting rely upon antiviral medications. This is insufficient as there are now strains of the H5N1 that are resistant to all major antiviral drugs, and furthermore does nothing to address the issues of DIC and alveolar flooding.
Alternative models concentrate on immune stimulating products. This is a dangerous idea as it is the strength of the immune response that makes the H5N1 so deadly. Increasing immune response may prevent an initial infection, but in an infection that has already taken hold, it will only worsen the outcome.

Preventative Measures
Studies suggest that Vitamin E and Selenium may decrease the infectivity and pathogenicity of the H5N1 Avian Influenza(1). Additionally, air pollutants have shown to increase the risk of contracting the H5N1 Avian Influenza(2). Raising glutathione, a primary detoxification pathway for petrochemicals may be of benefit. Finally, strengthening capillary walls may be suggested in preparation for a possible hemorrhagic episode.

Acute Management
Current scientific thought holds that the lethality of the H5N1 Avian Influenza may be caused by systemic viral dissemination, cytokine storm and/or alveolar flooding(3).
As such, an intelligent protocol for supporting the body would be to take these factors into consideration.
The H5N1 Avian Influenza contains the compounds Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase (also called sialidase). Both of these compounds are required in the infection cycle of certain virus. The drugs Zanamivir and Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) are both Neuraminidase inhibitors. One study suggests that the common Chinese Herb Astragalus may also be a Neuraminidase inhibitor(4). Since another study(5) suggests that Ca2+ and Mag2+ both speed up the activity of neuraminidase, and that Ca2+ is required for its function, making these elements unavailable via chelation with sodium and potassium citrate may be of use.
Studies also suggest that Lactoferrin(6), sulfated polysaccharides such as Ceramium Rubrum(7) (Red Marine Algae) and Elderberries(8) may be Hemagglutinin inhibitors. Unfortunately, Elderberry also increases cytokines (see above) especially Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNFa)(9) which is specifically associated with the toxicity of the H5N1 Avian Influenza (10).
For this reason, ingredients that studies suggest normalize TNFa such as Curcumin and Vitamin E (11),(12) should be considered.
One outcome of a cytokine storm can be disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). DIC may be responsible for the massive hemorrhaging seen with the H5N1 Avian Influenza(13). Thus, in addition to supporting normal cytokine levels, supporting the body in normalizing blood coagulation parameters with nutritional compounds may also be suggested(14),(15),(16).
The drugs Amantadine and Rimantadine work by inhibiting the matrix protein(s). Studies indicate that Glutathione and Resveratrol may have an effect on matrix proteins as well(17), (18).
Finally, Lactoferrin may support the body in decreasing infiltration into the lungs of inflammatory cells(19).

Emergency Solution
While I have already manufactured a product that contains all of the ingredients listed, the FDA does not allow for commercial sale alternative products to be made (other than homeopathics) for the bird flu. (While no claims are made nor can be made for a product with these ingredients, those interested in procuring some for research use only can do so by calling the author at: 808-573-8166.) You can see the other products we make at http://www.remedylink.com.

The following ingredients should be available locally and would be the basis of a makeshift H5N1 survival pack.
1- Curry powder as a source of turmeric to suppress TNFa
2- Red wine with the alcohol boiled off as a source of resveratrol
3- Kelp as a hemagglutinin inhibitor
4- Astragalus as a neuraminidase inhibitor (available at any Chinese herb shop)
5- Vitamin E as a blood thinner (available at any health food store)

Conclusions
Reports of people dying from the H5N1 Influenza in as little as three hours from the first signs of infection suggest the necessity of carrying on one’s person whatever they consider an adequate defense against this infection.
To recap,
In designing such a defense, the key factors to address regarding the H5N1 virus would be:
1- Decreasing the risk of initial infection
2- Decreasing the potential virulence of infection
3- Inhibiting Hemagglutinin
4- Inhibiting Neuraminidase
5- Inhibiting Matrix proteins
6- Binding of viral receptor sites
6- Reduction of calcium and magnesium
6- Decreasing general inflammatory cytokines
7- Decreasing TNF-a in particular
8- Supporting normal platelet activity
9- Decreasing free radical activity in the lungs
10- Minimizing hemorrhage
11- Strengthening blood vessels
12- Protecting against the after effect of hemorrhage
13- Replenishing electrolytes lost to diarrhea
14- Inhibiting secondary infections

JWR Adds: I have contacted the inventor personally. He told me that if an easily transmissible strain of Asian Flu does break out, it is likely that he will make his product available as long as supplies last.

Letter Re: Thermal Scopes Versus Light Amplification Scopes

Dear Jim:
I know your site talks about night vision ["Starlight" light amplification technology], but thermal night vision if you can afford it is far superior for hunting/perimeter defense/tracking. It doesn't matter about movement or camouflage [since these can literally see body heat.] See: http://www.imaging1.com/thermal/Thermal_weapon_sight.html and
http://www.imaging1.com/thermal/MX_1000.html
- S.F.

Odds 'n Sods:

An object lesson in inflation: Take a look at the 5 billion (millard) Mark note from the Weimar Republic, and ponder it. Hyperinflation has happened before, and it will happen again.  It is a risk in any country where the currency is not freely redeemable from the national treasury in specie.

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SurvivalBlog reader J.N. sent a link to a site with free PDFs of many military medical manuals. Also, a PDF for anyone wanting to know more about wound healing and suturing:

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On the lighter side: Our friend Chuck says, "Regarding Gold... This is how I feel! Gold hit $600 per ounce, yesterday. And silver is holding over $12!

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I just added a big pile-o-books to my mail order catalog. There are some great titles on a wide range of subjects, all from my personal collection--which I am presently paring down. See: http://www.survivalblog.com/catalog.html

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"...a further pandemic can be expected. When that will be is not known, but the consequences, when it does, will be serious."
"A future pandemic is likely to spread rapidly to all parts of the globe and cause sudden and sharp increases in illness over a matter of weeks. A pandemic could therefore rapidly overwhelm health and other services. The overall impact is likely to be even more far reaching, affecting daily life, business and consequently national and global economies."
"The impact of a flu pandemic on health and social services is likely to be intense, sustained and nation-wide; they may quickly become overwhelmed." - U.K. Health Departments’ Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan

Thursday, April 6, 2006

Note from JWR:   Tomorrow will be my last day as a salaried technical writer. Henceforth, I will be blogging and freelance writing full time. I'd appreciate your prayers for God's guidance and providence. I am hopeful that SurvivalBlog will continue to gain readership and advertisers. This will require greater public awareness that this blog exists. Please help spread the word about SurvivalBlog by adding one of our banners to your e-mail footer. Thanks!

From Buckshot Bruce: Take Advantage of Every Food Source

I was recently talking with a farmer friend and said "You are surrounded by food!" He said "Sure wheat and corn fields." I smiled. "No I mean wild foods. Oh you mean ducks and deer. It is a societal mind set. Farmers, like hunters, think in the only ways they have been taught. He wanted to get rid of a problem beaver that was taking out his shelter belts trees. Being new to North Dakota and seeing very few trees I thought there isn't much food for a beaver. "Must be a little one that wandered up here."

He takes me over. Walking the creek, sure enough, I see that this beaver had just helped himself to the few trees around. In fact in one spot the beaver completely killed off every single tree. There was a small 30 tree section, gone. The farmer said "You know I had not been down here for a few weeks and drove by and all my trees were gone. I drove down to my neighbor's house and asked if they had seen anyone cutting down all my trees and hauling them out for firewood? I want put that SOB in jail!" The neighbors replied no one has hauled any firewood past me. He drove back and walk down to the creek edge and saw all the trees were laying on the ground with chew marks on them. He came down later just before dark and shot at one beaver that swam off. He wa hopeful that was the end of the beaver problem. I smiled and said "Nope." He said "You're right. He went farther up the creek and started on the next section of trees. Can you get rid of him for me?" I answered, "Sure, no problem."

A week later the ice broke and one of the traps was missing. Floating under the surface was this large brown spot that looked like mud. The farmer asked "Is that the beaver?" "Could be", I answered. Pulling on the trap wire, the first thing I saw was a monster beaver tail. Yep there was our problem beaver. How big? 60 pounds. I could not believe my eyes here I am in a place I thought I would not being trapping beaver hauling a monster out from the this tiny creek with few trees. I commented, "You know, these are good to eat." So we headed to his place and cleaned, fleshed and tacked out the hide. Then we popped the back legs off. He parboiled them. He cooked just the meat--slow cooked with cream of chicken soup, all day. We had it the next night for dinner, over noodles. His comment: "I didn't believe you but your right that is real close to beef." His two sons joined us and enjoyed it. Surely they'd be telling all their friends at school they had a Mountain Man dinner.

We were talking after dinner and I told him: "Look at all the food around you. Look at the potholes ( they call ponds potholes here) with all the cattails. There was six muskrat dens you could trap 15 muskrats a year out of that pothole. Your shelter belts are loaded with squirrels and rabbits. He added: "Deer, too." I added, "You have plenty of cattails for flour, potatoes substitute, fresh like cucumber-tasting stalks. You have raccoons running all over the place." He said "I never thought about it, but you are right. All my farmers friends are really going to like you. Yep, I have feeling this fall I going to be very busy cleaning out problem critters."

People get in a mindset and only see part of the picture. When your long term survival depends on bringing meat home you are going to want to do it silently. I passed a pothole today that was next to a dirt road, and 20 ducks flew off. If I would have snuck up with a shotgun I might have got two or three of them. But you know what? Ducks don't like getting shot at. Chances are they would find a safer place to feed or rest for the night. But with six model 110 conibear  killing traps, in a total collapse situation (note that it is presently illegal to trap ducks) you could easily add two to three ducks a day. But the good news is the traps would not spook the rest of them so they would keep coming back. That is just one example of using your head to make sure your family had meat on the table. Small game snares would have worked the same way. Set the trap where the ducks are feeding. Tie off a weight to the snare and once caught it would pull the duck down out of sight.

Any animal, bird, or fish can be caught more efficiently with traps, snares and gill nets than with the sportsman's methods. Sportsman chances are nowhere near as good. Think about it: You put out a gill net and leave, the net is doing the fishing for you. You are not standing there casting for hours. You just come back in a few hours and collect your catch. What about a "bug out" situation? You can easily deploy a gill net, or snares or traps just before dark. Check and pull them in the morning. You have fresh caught breakfast hopefully extra for lunch and dinner. You move on. If you did it right no one has a clue that you harvested your food. No gunshot to broadcast that are in the area. No standing on the river or lake banks exposing yourself for hours.

If you are in a secure location you could easily snare a deer and then spend a day or two smoking the meat. I cover wilderness smokers in my Survivor Vol 3. DVD. Smoking is going to reduce the weight of deer and you could have 2-to-3 weeks of food to get you where your going. Being mobile and having the knowledge--not only how to obtain food but how to preserve it--is life saving. How many of you remember the 20-20 TV documentary with the young man in Alaska nicknamed Super Fly. He shot a moose but didn't have the knowledge to properly smoke the meat. It was bad in a week's time. He ended up eating some poison berries and dying alone in the wilderness. A sad tale. But with just a little bit of knowledge it could have been totally different. If he had survived he might now be writing books on how to survive in the wilderness.

Knowledge is power. Proper training can turn hard times into something you can survive. Think about it. I have trapped beaver in Arkansas, Texas, Michigan, Colorado, and North Dakota. Tons of food is waiting to be harvested.

Small pocket size gill nets