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Sunday, April 30, 2006

 

From David In Israel: On Passive Solar Water Heating

James
After Passover the weather in Israel always turns hot and clear. Perfect weather to save money.
American hot water heating is always on and is always wasting electricity or gas.
Passive solar is cheap and simple plus it can be supplemented with electrical on cold days.
It is law that every home have a passive solar water heater so I get to see the design on every house,
being in the West Bank I also see that the Arab homes and mansions will always have at least one dud shemesh (sun water heater)
If a commercial model is too expensive the construction would be simple and cheap: The collector is about 1.5M x..75M x 7-to-8cm deep panel placed at the lowest south facing part of the roof. Hoses carry the water up to the "dud" or tank which is as high as possible on the roof Israeli tanks are insulated, cheaper Arab models are simple black plastic tanks on stilts. Convection carries colder water from the bottom of the tank into the collector and hot water rises to the upper intake on the tank. On cold winter days we set the timer to run the immersion heater built in to the tank as on days near freezing the heater barely produces luke-warm water.
A wood framed glass paned collector with Black painted PVC pipe would likely make a great collector and a plastic barrel would probably make a good tank with a little Bondo work, similar to the Arab heaters.
Insulating the tank would make for warm water in the early morning. If a tank were suspended above the chimney it might be able to grab a few more precious BTUs from the hot gasses during the winter, get creative and let us know. Israeli water heaters will run near boiling. It is possibly easier to heat and insulate a small amount of very hot water than large tanks of less hot water.

On a related note: Your body also a solar collector. Avoid heat related injury. Remember that as hot weather approaches to keep hydrated!! If your urine is not clear and colorless you do not have a sufficient internal water storage and you are storing up toxins that your body wants to eliminate. Make a pre-hydrated body part of your survival kit!
You should always have at least a liter of water in your hand in your pack or next to you even when you are inside.

 

Letter From Michael Z. Williamson Re: Countdown to Collapse

Jim:

In response to Rosy the Bull, I have to say I'm not so pessimistic. I heard similar dire warnings about how the US economy would collapse at $3 a gallon gas, and it didn't happen. A great many countries in Europe and Asia, with smaller economies than ours, are paying over $6 a gallon now, which as a percentage of per capita income is five to ten times what we're paying.
As to the comments on nuclear attacks, those are inaccurate. Depleted Uranium is barely radioactive, and its danger is as a colloidal heavy metal toxin. The dangerous radionuclides from nuclear blasts are dangerous because of their short half life. It takes days for most to reach safe levels, months for a few. Even most of the area around Chernobyl is now repopulated, and that was a far more toxic contamination than most nuclear weapons. (The Ukraine insists it's not safe, despite people living there and GUIDED TOURS, because they get aid money from fuzzy-minded anti-nuke types.) Almost all nuclear weapons these days are designed for efficiency, and the "dumb" ones are still a triple stage fission trigger with a tritium squirt to generate enough extra neutrons for the remaining fissionables to be as thoroughly used as possible. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were 1.4% and 14% energy efficient. Modern fusion boosted weapons are up to 40% efficient. It's normally the case that the radius of total destruction exceeds the radius of the radiation.
Even with crude weapons--there are people living at ground zero in both Hiroshima and Nagasaki today, and were there within a few months of the attacks. The fear of contamination lasting "lifetimes" is groundless.
While any disruption of oil will affect the world market, whether or not we get oil from Iran (Which at present we mostly don't), I'm more concerned about the long term effects of industrializing India and China. Their populations are going to need massive amounts of resources, and no amount of politicking will reduce the effect. High fuel prices are the way of the future, and they are painful. But I don't believe they're going to cause a collapse.

 

 

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Prosperity is not without many fears and distastes; adversity not without many comforts and hopes." - Francis Bacon


Saturday, April 29, 2006

 

Letter Re: Brushy Hillsides: Better to Leave As-Is for Erosion/Landslide Prevention, or Clear for Fire Break?

Hello,
I've been reading your superb site for some time and have learned a lot. There's lots of interesting and helpful stuff.

As a family, we are about to leave the shores of 'Airstrip One' [England] and have purchased a few acres of Greek island to return to our smallholding roots. Our patch, in common with most places in the Med, is in an earthquake zone and we own a hilltop and steep slope. The area is also prone to brush fires in the summer.

My query is, should we cut back the vegetation on the slope for fire suppression or is the need to prevent land-slip, either by earth tremor or seasonal rains, more of an issue? Many of the locals simply cut back to bare earth, but there is a significant amount of landslip in these places and we do not want to awaken one morning and find our home in the neighbour's olive grove at the bottom of the hill...

Any comments/advice appreciated. Keep up the good work and congratulations on becoming full time on the site. I wish you every success for the future. - Mike in England

JWR Replies: Of the two risks, fire is the greater concern. I'd recommend a minimum 20 foot firebreak around your house and keeping the remaining brush pruned low. Since you will be building from scratch, use fireproof construction. (If it is masonry, be sure that it is very well reinforced, since Greece is indeed earthquake country. Although you will probably not have access to the equipment and materials in Greece, SurvivalBlog readers in other areas might consider Monolithic dome or Insulated Concrete Form (ICF) construction. Monolithic domes are virtually fireproof and ICF houses are fairly resistant to fire, depending on the type of roof used.

 

 

Letter Re: Folding Fighting/Utility Knife Recommendations?

Hello,
We have a copy of your novel "Patriots" published by Huntington House; and even had the 8.5 x 11 [self-published] precursor to the book. I'd like to ask you a question. Do you know of any tactical/SERE knife evaluation forums out there.
I'd like to obtain the best folder out there for my son. I have an old Al Mar SERE, but am curious if anyone has compared the various folders such as Al Mar, Masters of Defense, Benchmade etc.
Keep up the great work, James! - R.S. in Ohio

JWR Replies: I am by no means a knife expert. (Although the Memsahib claims that I am a seasoned expert at buying knives.) My general preference is for folding knives. Why? Because you will almost always have a folding knife in your pocket. Big sheath knives get left behind--often when they are needed the most.

The following is my advice for those you that like me are not independently wealthy: I think that the Cold Steel, CRKT, and Benchmade brands are some of the best affordable knives on the market. Granted, there are custom knives that are superior in many aspects, most of those are quite expensive. I would rather have a half dozen Cold Steel or Benchmade knives than spend the same amount to buy just one from a "name maker." Lets face it: If they are used on a day-to-day basis, knives get lost, stolen, or broken with alarming regularity. I know some purists who swear by their Chris Reeve, Lyle, Ruana, or Randall knives. More power to them. They own great knives that are expertly-made, durable, and, will hold an edge. They will even appreciate in value, if well cared for. (Witness the recent meteoric price increases for early Randall fighting knives in Heiser sheathes.) But my approach is instead to have a larger number of moderately priced knives. With these extra knives I will have spares on hand in the event of loss or breakage, and perhaps even a few for barter and charity. You can of course follow this approach to an absurd extreme. Don't buy Chinese junk, just because you can get 10 knives for $100!

FWIW, my "daily carry" folder is a small CRKT M16-12Z with Zytel grips. This is a good knife that sells for less than $50. It has a half-serrated AUS8 stainless steel blade with a Tanto type point. BTW, I prefer tanto style blades, since they are less prone to broken tips. (Yes folks, I'm a bit hard on knives.) It has a belt clip, which I consider a necessity on small and medium-size folders. I previously carried a larger model (also a Tanto style, from Benchmade), but I found that it was too bulky.

Regardless of your choice of knives, a top quality knife sharpening system is a must for your retreat. At home, I prefer the Lansky Sharpening System. When out in the field, I use a compact Cam-Nu sharpener. There are several other good ones on the market. But just be sure to get a diamond-impregnated sharpener if you have any knives that are made with the modern stainless steels such as ATS-34. These are usually hardened to a high Rockwell scale number, so you'll find that they are difficult to re-sharpen with a set of traditional stones. (But the good news is that their hardness also means that they hold an edge much better than traditional knives.) A diamond sharpener is a must!

 

Letter Re: Springfield Armory XD Series Polymer Frame Pistols are the Ars Nova

Dear Jim,
I love the site and have learned much. As soon as I can scrape together some extra money, I will be joining the Challenge.
Some Guy wrote about the lack of availability of spare parts for the XD series pistols and the lack of certified armorers. One is true, the other is patently false.
Springfield has been less than forthcoming with spare parts. Most of this seems to be just a lack of manufacturing capacity. If I remember correctly, they can barely get enough parts to make the pistols, let alone keep extras around. Why no third party has taken up the slack, I have no idea. They do, however, have a lifetime warranty which Springfield is quick to honor. Also, the weapon is built rock solid, even passing the fabled Glock abuse test, and it is only the odd pistol that needs work.
As far as there being no certified XD armorers, that is demonstrably false as I have dealings with one on a regular basis. He is also a Glock armorer, and a Kel Tec armorer. They are out there but one can get certified only by invitation, not just any guy in his garage can become an XD armorer. Here is a good forum for more info on the XD: http://www.hs2000talk.com/
Thanks again for all the info. - DD

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

Yikes! Copper is at $7,000 per ton!

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The folks at Safecastle mentioned that they give substantial discounts (generally 10-20%)to Survivalblog readers --for everything listed in their eBay store . All you have to do is mention SurvivalBlog when you e-mail your requests for quotes. Some of Safecastle's highest volume product lines are Maxpedition, Mountain House, JetBoil, and Katadyn. BTW, it is better if you e-mail Safecastle at jcrefuge@safecastle.net rather than using the eBay message system.

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Take the time out to read Dr. Peter Hammond's great piece about Switzerland. This is something you don't read in most history books.

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SurvivalBlog reader Dutch in Wyoming notes that America is experiencing another unintended consequence of our debt-financed Asian buying binge: The death of our oak tree forests.

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Strong men greet war, tempest, hard times. They wish, as Pindar said, to tread the floors of hell, with necessities as hard as iron." - Ralph Waldo Emerson


Friday, April 28, 2006

Note From JWR: Yesterday I took a "speed hike" day with #1 Son and and #3 Son here at the Rawles Ranch,. (I'm trying to lose a few pounds and get in shape for a four day course that the Memsahib and I plan to attend at Front Sight, later this year.) While on the hike, we got our best view ever of the beavers on our neighbor's pond. They are cute, but destructive critters. They have been busy for the past two years. Their dam has raised the pond's level by a couple of feet, and this has increased the pond's surface area to nearly six acres. (It was formerly only about five acres.) They have also decimated the trees that used to ring the north end of the pond. Since they are rapidly exhausting their food supply, I suspect that the beavers will abandon their lodge and move further up-country next year. Coincidentally, our first letter today concerns ponds...

Letter Re: Ponds, Aquiculture, and Pond Predators

Hello James,
In the event of a TEOTWAWKI scenario, as discussed previously on your blog, food and water will become critical in supply. My query is to seek out knowledge from within your following on newly constructed ponds as a water and food source. Here are my questions:
1). What type of fish replenish the most rapidly while offering a genuine nutrition?
2). What types of fish are compatible or necessary to keep a full circle eco-system continuing?
3). How many fish can you support per cubic yard of water?
4). Should food be introduced into the water until the young are established?
5). What predators, (i.e.- ground/air living) would be a potential food source or havoc on your newly established "eco-system".
I don't recall any lengthy discussions on this subject. Any advice would be greatly welcome! - The Wanderer
JWR Replies: I have only limited experience with ponds and aquiculture. Perhaps our correspondent in Brazil would like to chime in. He has been developing a pond aquiculture system there for several years. Does anyone else care to comment?

 

Letter Re: Peak Oil, Hyperinflation, and Economic Collapse

Hey James,
Hope you and your family are well. I have read many books on the coming economic collapse and Peak Oil, your opinion and also your readers comments on SurvivalBlog. For quite a bit of it, I agree. However, I doubt we'll see a true TEOTWAWKI because of a lack of
oil or even a complete collapse as some are predicting. One thing people are forgetting is the HUGE (1.5 Trillion barrels or so) of oil deposited in oil shale in the Western United States. At $35 per barrel of oil, it becomes profitable to start producing oil and gas from oil shale. So I wouldn't be too worried about peak oil just yet.
Personally, I believe that we will see inflation to the point where they classify it as hyperinflation (prices going up 100% over the course of 3
years), and I think we will see a major depression starting somewhere around 2010. Up until that time, we'll just see massive amounts of inflation, maybe another war and our citizens' actual buying power decrease to a point where it really puts a strain on the economy. You know, people will still use credit cards without the thought of the ability of paying it back or what is
going on around them. I give it four years and we'll see 10% to 15% unemployment (possibly higher), the massive increase of foreclosures and bankruptcies and the tightening of peoples' belts.
I do see things getting worse, because oil will go way over $100 per barrel and there is no real movement on the part of our government to nip our energy crisis in the bud. Welcome back to the 1970s and early 1980s, however, it will be much worse, because this time it is not just based on world politics. Sincerely, - K.L. in Michigan

 

Odds 'n Sods:

The much-publicized Iranian oil bourse, conducting trades in Euros, opens for business next week.

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SurvivalBlog reader R.B.S. (who kindly sends us several links every day) spotted this interesting site: The U.S. Gas "Temperature" Map. As you can see, Wyoming has some of the lowest prices--proving yet again that the Free State Wyoming folks made a good choice for their locale.

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An interesting thread on the pros and cons on the various commercial versus military camouflage fabric patterns is underway over at The FAL Files.

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This Generator Site has some great links in the left hand bar. (At least 50 links.)

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The Buckshot's Camp May-June Newsletter is now available for free download. As usual, there is some very interesting reading--and as always, it is in Buckshot's unique writing style.

 

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"An armed society is a polite society." - Robert A. Heinlein, Beyond this Horizon


Thursday, April 27, 2006

Note from JWR: Today we welcome Captain Dave's, our 24th advertiser. They have some great products at very competitive prices. Also be sure to check out their extensive free survival FAQs, and copious links.

We need 40+ advertisers to make a go of this, so please contact anyone you know that might be an appropriate advertiser and ask them to consider getting an ad. You can tell them that our ad space rates are very low, especially compared to magazine advertising. A small ad is still just $55 per month!

And BTW, whenever you contact any of our advertisers, please let them know that you saw their ad on SurvivalBlog. Thanks!

 

Peace of Mind in Turbulent Times--I'm Getting a Good Night's Sleep

When I meet new folks, they typically ask what I do for a living. I mention SurvivalBlog and then the topic of survivalism inevitably comes up. A few ask: "How can you sleep at night, worrying about all of that?" My reply is: " I sleep very well, know ing that I have done my best to ensure the nourishment, health, and safety of my family. I would only lose sleep if I went to bed knowing that I was under-prepared." I am tempted ask them in turn (but being diplomatic in polite society, I generally refrain): "How can you sleep well at night, with at most a week or two food in your pantry, minimal first aid supplies, no stored fuel or backup method to heat your home, no communications gear, no alternative lighting method beyond candles to last a day or two, no method to transport or treat water from a nearby pond, and no means to defend your life and property?"

Being animis opibusque parati (prepared in mind and resources) is not a source of anxiety. Rather, effective preparedness relieves anxiety. Just don't make the mistake of dwelling constantly on every potential cataclysm. That is a trap that will indeed cause you to lose sleep. Here is my outlook/approach in a nutshell: Trust in God. Prepare the best that your resources allow. Carry on with your normal day-to-day life. You'll sleep well.

 

 

Book Review: The Hunt for Confederate Gold by Thomas Moore

I recently read the novel "The Hunt for Confederate Gold" by Thomas Moore. (Published by Fusilier Books, ISBN 0976998203) It may sound cliched, but I couldn't put it down! I am not surprised that it has a perfect five star rating on Amazon.com. Without giving too much away, I can tell you that it is three intertwined storylines wrapped into one. (One of which takes place in the closing days of the Confederate States of America.) This is Moore's first novel. It is a thoroughly captivating, thought-provoking novel. I found it both entertaining and educational. Much like in my novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse", the author weaves a lot of useful factual information into a fictional storyline. Moore includes lots of Civil War history facts as well the historical context of Reconstruction and the whole American experience, recent abuses by Federal government agencies, the fiat paper money fraud, and an analysis of current U.S. policies in the Middle East.

The story and characters are believable. Many of the characters--both heroes and villains--are obviously drawn on some real life individuals but subtly changed to avoid any legal unpleasantness. My only technical nit-pick is that one of the characters refers to "five millions" worth of gold and silver (circa 1865) fitting into two large wooden chests that could be carried by a few men. Even if it were all gold, and assuming that most of it were $20 gold pieces, then $5 million would weigh nearly 18,000 pounds and occupy about 150 cubic feet. Since the hoard was described as a mixture of gold and silver, the weight and bulk would of course be even greater. But that is just a minor quibble. In fairness, perhaps the character was referring to "five millions" worth of inflated Confederate currency...

One refreshingly nice thing to mention about this novel is that that it was obviously written by a true southern gentleman. It includes a minimum of harsh language, profanity, or other offensive content. Unlike the racy novel Unintended Consequences by John Ross (a similar adventure/think piece), I could in good conscience hand this novel to my teenage sons.

As a novelist myself, I can attest that Moore's smooth writing style is difficult to achieve. His gift for writing is a rarity, particularly among "first novelists." In fact, I wish I had some of Mr. Moore's finesse! I highly recommend this novel. It is from a small publisher, so odds are that you won't find a copy at your local book store. Your best bet is finding a copy through Amazon.com.

 

 

Letter Re: Tornado Damage and Retreat Construction

Hello James,
It has been a busy weather pattern for this early in the spring in our area. Two weeks ago tornadoes, yesterday, snowflakes! I have been surveying some of the damage in our area and have been surprised at the damage a F1 category tornado can cause. It is imperative to understand that while a large percentage of homes built today are constructed to withstand 120 mph sustained winds, that this does not take into consideration that flying debris (like entire oak trees, cars, etc...) with large mass [that] cause enormous damage when faced with a sudden stop. There were pictures in our local paper showing 2x4 lumber debris embedded into concrete walls. If that does not make one think, nothing will.
In the SurvivalBlog archives there were many discussions on varying Home/Retreat construction methods. I viewed a concrete wall home and was not surprised at the integrity, however, the roof became the hinge for the added pressure, (conventional wood roof). My personal opinion is that in this case, anyone inside of this home, (which did not have a basement or safe room) would have been sucked out and thrown many football fields away.
Your vendors have options out there for safe rooms, and the government has outlines for building your own. I suggest some serious consideration for anyone living in the prone areas for such weather events. - The Wanderer
P.S: I had a most pleasant experience with Freeze Dry Guy. As other readers have commented, it is nice to have your endorsement when making big purchase decisions like that. Thanks!

 

 

Letter Re: The Army and Marine Corps New "Digital" Pattern Camouflage Uniforms

Jim,
I have to highly recommend AGAINST the Army's new ACU uniform. Officially, there are only a few detergents "approved" for cleaning them, to avoid excess wear on the fabric. The running complaint from people with ACUs (a mere few months after issue) is that they wear out within a few washings. Soldiers are wearing them to look strack, but wearing their old BDUs in the field for durability. Also, ACUs are expensive.
I got to see a firing line full of troops a couple of weeks ago. At less than 100 yards, both ACUs and the new MARPAT Marine uniforms blended to a neutral gray because of how small the pattern is. While that's better than no camo, it's no better than the old green fatigues. Meanwhile, there were still visible color breaks on BDUs at that range. Since the main purpose of camouflage is to disrupt outlines, the BDUs are better. I'm not happy with the excessive amount of green in BDUs--most of nature is brown or tan--but they do work.
Additionally, walking around a military base is instructive. At considerable distance, the brain screams, "Look! There's someone in the new ACUs!" The color choice doesn't seem to blend in in any terrain, and is visible against most natural and artificial backgrounds. The Army insists that black wasn't used because "black isn't a color found in nature." Bull. Black appears as shadow at a distance. Something without shadow cannot blend in. There is so little difference in the tones of color used that there is no contrast.
Frankly, as much as I love high tech, I'm convinced the digital fad in camo will die a quick death. One of the big selling points is that it's better against [electro]optics. But how many of our current threats are using [electro]optics? And since that is the case, showing troops a video of a pattern designed to defeat digital video technology gives them a false faith in the reliability of the pattern to defeat the Mark 1, Mod 0 eyeball.
My preferred camo for the last 20 years has been [the commercial] All Season All Terrain (ASAT). (See: www.asatacamo.com.) Take a look. I think you'll be impressed. - Michael Z. Williamson

JWR Replies: As previously mentioned, the Army gray-green pattern does blend in well in sagebrush. But I must concur that the color is not right when seen against most other foliage. And yes, it does lack sufficient contrast.

One often overlooked consideration for survivalists wishing to secure a retreat is the need to distinguish friend from foe at a glance. By standardizing with an uncommon camo pattern (such as ASAT or perhaps one the various RealTree patterns) for all of your retreat residents you will more easily be able to detect someone infiltrating your property. I know of one retreat group in Northern California that uses Swiss Alpenflage (a distinctive camo pattern with lot of red blotches in it) for just this reason. (And, not coincidentally, their retreat property is infested with poison oak, which has red leaves for half of the year.) The Woodland BDU pattern, although quite effective, is ubiquitous in North America. (It is also used around the globe--from the Philippines to Serbia!) As the new digital patterns are fielded , there will be even more Woodland BDUs hitting the U.S. surplus market. So be forewarned that if you standardize your family (or retreat group) with Woodland BDUs, then you will lose lose the advantage of instant friend from foe recognition at a distance.

 

 

Letter Re: Springfield Armory XD Series Polymer Frame Pistols are the Ars Nova

Hi Jim,
A quick comment on the Springfield XD-- a friend of mine purchased one recently and has been completely unable to acquire spare parts for it! Springfield will only sell spare parts to certified XD armorers-- and word is that there are none of those yet. As of now, the market is limited to (Wolff) recoil springs, spare mags, and components such as replacement sights.

So if something breaks, you have to ship your pistol to the manufacturer. Now, random parts breakage is fairly rare, but this is the death knell for these guns, in my opinion, as a serious survival sidearm. Hopefully, this will change in the future with readily-available spares.

In my personal opinion, one should, at the very least, focus on a core battery of weapons that have easily obtainable spare parts and bulk ammunition. Not in the future, but NOW, when you buy the gun. A pistol with a broken firing pin is a paperweight. A rifle with a faulty extractor has very limited use. Etc.

The reason that I recommend Glocks as survival arms is that a mentally deficient ape such as myself can maintain them with ease. Very easy to work on! Parts are readily-available and inexpensive. You can easily rebuild the entire weapon down to the smallest part, by yourself, with the basic Glock takedown tool. And the most robust and versatile of the Glocks, in my opinion, are the 9mm variants, the 17 and 19 in particular. A police trade-in, ten magazines, five sets of each spring in the weapon, and a bundle of spare extractors, firing pins, et cetera will not set you back too much.

1911s have more of a learning curve, repair-wise, but again, parts are readily available and basic parts replacement is fairly easy for handy people (hand-fitting aside). Not as easy as the Glock, but with a mentor, you can do it.

My personal favorite handgun is a Steyr M40, which I also consider superior to a Glock-- academically. But from now on, I am transitioning to the Glock 9mm variants for the reasons above. Regards, - SomeGuy

 

Odds 'n Sods:

A reader mentioned this site with some good general information, particularly on assembling survival kits.

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SurvivalBlog reader B.T. found this link to a PDF of  The U.S. Army Survival Manual. (19 chapters and eight appendices, each as a separate PDF file.)
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A lengthy but informative piece on Peak Oil.

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"It was on the Rütli Meadow that the Swiss Confederation was first formed on 1 August 1291. For 650 years, Swiss fighting men had earned the reputation as the most ferocious in Europe. Their determined refusal to live under the rule of foreign kings, was legendary. Most people know the story of William Tell, the hero who refused to bow before the Austrian governor Gessler. He was condemned to shoot an apple off the head of his 6-year old son at 120 paces. If he refused, both father and son would be executed. In a remarkable display of archery skill, William Tell succeeded in hitting the apple and missing his son. Congratulating Tell, Gessler asked why he had another arrow in his quiver. Tell responded that, had he injured the child, he would have sent the remaining arrow into the governor's heart. Tell was condemned to life imprisonment for his insolence, but he escaped while being transported across Lake Lucerne." - Peter Hammond


Wednesday, April 26, 2006

 

Letter Re: Springfield Armory XD Series Polymer Frame Pistols are the Ars Nova

Dear Jim:
Well the Glock may finally have been outclassed in the self-defense pistol category!

A diehard 1911 guy sings the praises of the XD for ergonomics and reliability, see this post at 1911.com. ...and rates it BETTER than the Glock:

"Both have polymer frames, are square and blocky, and have the little trigger flange safety thing. The sights and trigger on the Glock are plastic; they are steel on the XD. I think the trigger and grip on the XD is better. The XD has a grip safety like the 1911; the Glock does not. The XD pistols tend to be a bit heavier than their Glock counterparts. The grip angle of the XD is similar to the 1911, and for 1911 shooters, the XD points more naturally. The rifling of XD barrels is traditional, making them a tad more friendly to reloads and lead bullets than the polygonal rifling of the Glock. The chamber in the XD is fully supported in contrast to the partially unsupported chamber design of the Glock. While both pistols are striker fired, the XD is fully cocked by the recoil of the slide, making it a single action pistol. The Glock is partially cocked by recoil, and then the cocking is finished by the trigger pull. Opinion time: I feel that the better trigger and grip, the supported chamber, traditional rifling, grip safety and steel sights make the XD an improvement over the Glock."

and gun guru Chuck Taylor gives it a big thumbs up:

...and the XD is finally available in .45 ACP (NOT just .45 GAP)

I'll have to borrow one from one of the IDPA shooters who sold his Glocks to get Springfield XDs...

Regards, - OSOM - "Out of Sight, Out of Mind"

JWR Replies: I've been hearing from several sources that the Springfield Armory XD series pistols--in particular the new .45 ACP variants--are the ars nova. The only substantive complaint that I've heard about them is that their bluing is more prone to corrosion than the Glock's finish.

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

Financial analyst Puru Saxena warns "Cash is Trash."


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It is hardly a news flash for SurvivalBlog readers, but MSN Money Central's Bill Fleckenstein reports: The Housing Bubble Has Popped


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Tuesday, April 25, 2006

 

Letter Re: Accelerating Prices for Copper and Zinc--A U.S. Penny Now Costs 1.4 Cents

Jim,
Just one more note re. the rising cost of metals, especially copper in the market - I sent an earlier message regarding recycling cartridge brass (which contains copper) instead of stockpiling copper, but now the New York Times notes in a Saturday brief:

"Price of a Penny Could Exceed a Cent
- What happens if a penny is worth more than one cent? That is an issue the U.S. Mint could soon face if the price of metals keeps rising. The cost of the metal in a penny has climbed to almost one cent. Add in the cost of transporting the pennies, and the cost to the government of producing a penny is estimated at 1.4 cents.
The real problem could come if metals prices rise so high that it would be economical to melt down pennies for the metals they contain.
Appearances aside, pennies no longer contain much copper. In the middle of 1982, after copper prices rose to record levels, the mint started making pennies that consist mostly of zinc, with just a thin copper coating. But these days, zinc is newly popular. Rising industrial demand and speculation have sent the price rocketing. Since the end of 2003, zinc prices have tripled. Gold, by contrast, is up only about 50 percent."

Will pennies disappear soon, or will they remain as a token of our graciousness to 'give a penny, take a penny'? Regards, - Redclay

JWR Replies: If rapid inflation re-emerges (and I suspect that it will, soon), then those ubiquitous "give a penny, take a penny" bowls will likely be superceded by "give a dollar take a dollar" jars.


Letter Re: Countdown to Collapse

Jim:
I think we now have another way to compute the countdown to the collapse of our society as we know it.
Several months ago I read on one of the economic web sites, we both visit, that for every penny the price of fuel goes up $1,400,000 per day is sucked out of the consumer economy.
With oil at $74 per barrel today and the PENAC people pushing for another Middle East war, this one with Iran, we are looking at oil reaching $125 per barrel or higher as soon as this dumb war starts. This translates to $5.25 - $6.00 per gallon fuel by October / November.

The media and the economists are now saying that we will have $4.00 per gallon fuel by June 1 on current oil prices. One of my trusted friends is telling me that fuel is already $3.90 per gallon is some rural California cities.
I believe that the true unemployed figure here in the US is more than 12%. And, that the underemployed figure is 6% to 10% With our millions of unemployed, increased fuel costs will dry up the economy before winter this year. That means the crash will come before the first of the year.
Just using the preceding figure of $1.4MM per day being sucked out of the consumer economy the numbers look something like this.
1 cent per gal increase = $1,400,000 per day.
50 cent per gal increase = $70,000,000 per day.
100 cent per gal increase = $140,000,000 per day.
150 cent per gal increase = $210,000,000 per day.
30 days at 150 cent per day increase = $6,300,000,000 . That number is six billion three hundred million dollars being sucked out of the consumer economy in 30 days ending June 30, 2006.
Granted there are all kind of formulas to compute the disastrous affects of such an increase and my math is simple and rough, however, the American people cannot withstand such a hit and survive as a nation.
Now look at the global effects of a war with Iran. The US purchases no oil from Iran. Most of Iran's oil is sold to Europe and other nations. A dumb nuclear strike or using depleted uranium ammo on Iran will contaminate that country for many lifetimes. Oil will trickle out of Iran just like oil from Iraq fluctuates. The price of oil will skyrocket as nations compete for available oil. The high price of fuel will curtail farming, food packaging, trucking, energy production, manufacturing, construction and the economy. The economies of many countries of the world will crash because the fiat dollar is the current primary global unit of International exchange. The Euro will crash a short time later because their central banks are tied to our central bank.
Yes, the crash can be put off for a little while by nationalizing the oil companies, major manufacturing, restricting travel, electrical use and subsidizing the farmers, but it will come regardless because you cannot build a nation on usury. Usury violates the 10th commandment and mocks God.
The lack of or the price of oil will soon bring our nation to a standstill, with or without another un Constitutional war. Civil unrest will surface and Americans will start taking out their frustrations on all foreign workers holding work visas, illegal border jumpers (the uncharged criminals living of America), the owners of businesses who hire foreigners, the banks that do business with them, foreign embassy consulates, the PACs, NGOs, churches, and the globalist in America. Under the guise of Homeland Security our anti American government employees will try to intervene and that will foster rebellion in various parts of the country. I am thankful I do not live in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, California or any sanctuary city. My brother and his entire extended family just moved to Idaho without any encouragement from me.
Now I am sure there are some economic professionals who visit this blog and can provide a better analysis than myself and I welcome their comments as to when we might expect the crash. I will go out on a limb and say, that absent government intervention it will probably come before the first of the year. Regardless, it is coming, and very soon.
Sincerely, - Rosy the Bull in Montana

 

Letter Re: A Good Source for Battle Dress Uniforms (BDUs)

Jim:
Here is the best place by far that I have found when it comes to quality BDUs and good prices: www.BDU.com. I have ordered from them in the past, and the next time I order I'm going to tell them about SurvivalBlog.- Gung Ho


JWR Adds: For any SurvivalBlog readers that live in sagebrush country, I highly recommend the new U.S. Army gray-green "digital" camouflage pattern. You will blend in very well in sagebrush. The only drawback is that these uniforms have some Velcro closures which are noisy.

 

Kate "Short Fuse" Incontrera of The Daily Reckoning on The Next Great Depression

We asked you this week, dear reader: What will the next Great Depression bring? How will Americans survive in our day-to-day lives? The responses to this not-so-hypothetical query continue to clog up our inbox, which doesn't surprise us. What does surprise us, however, is how united our readers are on this subject. Not one message lamented on how strong our economy is right now, and how we are fools for even bringing up the possibility of another Great Depression. Each e-mail portrayed how
real this idea is to Americans - that something this bad could be right around the corner.
"A Great Depression signals a swerve in global direction, a massive transformation of the world society and economy," says echolist.com.
"One great system perishes. The Great Depression marked a critical stage in a transformation of the global economy that began around 1900. That's when the Industrial Economy of the 19th century slowly and fitfully began to morph into the 20th century's Consumer Economy. To tame the almost naked continent of 1845, the Industrial Economy required immense savings. To save and invest became the 11th Commandment. Imagine. Americans saved up to 40 percent of their income!"
Apparently, we learned nothing from the events that occurred over seventy years ago. The U.S. savings rate has fallen into the negative level for the first time since the Great Depression. Debt, consumer and national, is skyrocketing. We continue to see people dig themselves deeper and deeper into debt, with no regard for preparing for the future.
"Having parents who lived through the First Depression (during the late 1920s-1930s), and having a father-in-law who was the proverbial 'packrat' (among other things, 7 washing machines, 15 vacuum cleaners, etc., when we cleaned out his house) they all had the mentality that nothing was wasted;
everything had value; and that what they had was of good quality," writes one Daily Reckoning reader.
"Today we have very little of this. We do not know how to fix anything, build anything, or save anything of quality (because what little we have is made to expire and be thrown away).
"I personally can not imagine what it will be like when our dollar is worthless, and the shelves at the stores display a few dented cans of beans that are selling for whatever the price of an ounce of silver (or gold for that matter) is worth.
"Who among us will be able to keep the lights on, the water running, and our cars tuned?! What jobs will pay the best? For that matter, what jobs will be available for any of us? And what about our children? How will we care, feed, and educate them?
"I am half-empty kinda of person, but what I see ahead for the USA scares me very much (especially since it will stretch into my elder years of
life). It is going to be a very hand-to-mouth existence, with a lot of sadness, anger, and senseless violence (over simple everyday commodities)."
Short Fuse - The Daily Reckoning.
JWR Adds:
The Daily Reckoning is one of my daily "must reads." Subscriptions are free.

 

Odds 'n Sods:


Spot silver is down to around $12.20 on profit taking. If you haven't already diversified into precious metals, then I recommend that you buy on these dips. The long term trend is definitely upward. (See the six month and one year charts at Kitco.)

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"My Night with The Minutemen" by Bryanna Bevens

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Hurricane Katrina, first hand evacuation experiences

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Gary Duncan of the Times of London on Avoiding an Economic Earthquake

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The Kiplinger Letter has made the following energy price forecasts: Crude oil early July '06: $82 by Dec. '06: $68, Gasoline early July '06: $3.50 December '06: $2.75, Diesel Fuel early July '06: $3.50 December '06: $3.00. Top off your storage tanks NOW.

 

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Chinese President Hu Jintao didn't mince words: China's currency will stay where it is. For the second time in less than a year Asia's No. 2 economy outmaneuvered the world's biggest on the yuan. Last July, China announced a negligible 2.1 percent increase in its currency's value versus the dollar. This week Hu, on his first official U.S. visit, didn't budge amid Bush's concerns an undervalued yuan is costing the U.S. jobs." - William Pesek, in a recent editorial for Bloomberg.com


Monday, April 24, 2006

Note from JWR: My sincere thanks to those of you that have kindly subscribed for $3 per month as part of the 10 Cent Challenge. To eke out a living as a full time blogger, I need at least another 200 subscribers. If you find what you read here has some value, please do your bit. BTW, if you already have a PayPal account, subscribing takes less than a minute.

By clicking on the PayPal button above, you can automatically bill your credit card or PayPal balance for a monthly charge of $3.00. Many Thanks!

 

 

Letter Re: New Routes for the Next Houston Hurricane Evacuation

Jim,
Between work and studies, I came across an article in my local newspaper about new evacuation routes for the Houston area during hurricane season. I stayed out of the last one, but came real close to riding my bike to College Station, our evac[uation] rendezvous point. I don't think the police would have taken kindly to someone riding down the highway on a Schwinn with a Remington 870 on his back.
Anyway, the article got me thinking about the gridlock people suffered and the ensuing confusion that lasted for a couple of days. If I didn't see anything on evac & evasion on SurvivalBlog, then I must have missed it, but what knowledge can you or some of the other contributors provide that can make an evacuation go quicker? The local government's plan is to open contra-flow lanes on most of the major arteries leading out of Houston. The plan also calls for pre-positioned fuel trucks and tow trucks along those highways. Gas stations are also encouraged to stay open and medical services will be provided for every few miles. Sounds like a larger version of the MS 150 ride I will partake in this weekend (except with cars). Our mayor is an avid cyclist, and I am sure he was thinking of that same thing. How can a prepared individual and his family avoid the mayhem and confusion that plagued Houston last time? Sorry, I couldn't find the link to the article. Peace, - Shooter

 

 

Two Letters Re: Dealing with Illegal Immigration in the U.S.

Mr. Rawles:

This is in response to Michael Z Williamson's arguments concerning the ongoing illegal alien problem. I have heard his arguments for the past 20 years..they are repeated over and over on talk radio (in my consideration a waste of time--most people simply regurgitate what the government suggests via the talk radio host, usually a buffoon more interested in his 6 or 7 figure salary than solving problems). We as a nation have an obligation and a duty to retain our borders, culture and language. We owe it to those that came before us and to those that will come after. What we lack is will. The billions quoted to address the problem are a drop in the bucket compared to what we have so far expended on a foreign excursion that had no clear goals and was based on lies. A lot of the so called 'patriots' in this country and the churchgoers have stood by largely quite while a few have been lucid enough to see the problem for what it is, an invasion. What Americans need to do is put down the remote control and stop letting their sports games, fast food, internet pornography and silly useless hobbies dictate their lives and address this problem for what it is. You are certainly right when you stated that we will one day wake up and we will be strangers in our own land. Their isn't an exodus of largely white americans leaving the southwest because they hate the warmth and sunshine. Its because they see an invasion within their midst and their culture being dismantled and those charged with protecting the fragile society we live in doing nothing. We can all shoot our guns, buy more ammo and prepare for the 'end times' till the cows come home but all that will be largely useless if we simply accept this invasion on the grounds that it is somehow inhumane or bigoted to not jealously guard what is ours. As a nation of far less people over 60 years ago we fought a two front war, produced nearly 4,500 planes a month and countless other munitions, supplies and resources and as well put nearly 20 million of our men into uniform to protect the rest of the world from tyranny. To say we cant address this problem with even a fraction of that effort is insulting. Thanks, - Jason in North Idaho

 

James:

Michael Z. Williamson's letter about the problems with building a border fence is a good, logical analysis of the problem. Perhaps there are other solutions.
Asset (or civil) forfeiture is not popular with many constitutionalists, but it is in fact constitutional. It was employed by the states from before the signing of the constitution to the present. Unlike today, it was originally used at the border, to seize contraband goods. In so doing, it helped enforce our borders. And it could help us do so today. I would like to see the Federal Government seize any recordable property belonging to illegal immigrants, on the grounds that the property is being used to aid and abet their illegal presence in the United States. Illegals won't want to stay if they can't own real property in the US. And fewer will come if they don't think they can stay.
I am quite against some of the other modern uses of asset forfeiture - seizures based on some "malum prohibitum" crime that offend the "morals" of the government. But if it were returned to its original purpose - to enforce our borders - it might become respectable again. - Sun Dog

 

Odds 'n Sods:

The switch from MTBE to ethanol for gasoline oxygenation has caused a Gas Shortage on U.S. East Coast

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A Titan 1 Missile Base in Eastern Washington is Being Auctioned on eBay. Wow! 57 acres, 120,000 square feet of underground space, and hundreds of million of dollars worth of concrete. It has been bid up to $476,000 and there are still two weeks until the end of the auction. I spoke briefly with the seller about the property. He said that the nice thing about this one is that the water table is down at the 400 foot level. Thus, there has been no groundwater intrusion into the silos--a common problem found in missile bases in other areas. This one is also fairly well removed from likely nuke targets. (Some of the other missile bases that have recently been for sale are in the middle of active Peacekeeper missile fields!) BTW, for some similar properties, see http://www.missilebases.com

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Victor Davis Hanson opines: Where are People More Safe? -- Iraq Versus California

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A scholarly analysis on Multiculturalism, Immigration, and Aztlan by Maria Hsia Chang

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"Biosecurity" is the buzzword du jour at chicken, turkey and egg operations across the country.

 

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"It's the same with white people. They cleared the forest, they dug up the land, and they gave us the flu. But they also brought power tools and penicillin and Ben and Jerry's ice cream." - Elaine Miles as Marilyn Whirlwind, Northern Exposure


Sunday, April 23, 2006

 

Letter Re: Questions on The Paratus Farms Development--Water Versus Defensible Terrain

Jim,
Is there a stream at all [on the Paratus Farms Property]? Seems like a plateau would not have any streams or open water.

[One passage deleted, for OPSEC.]

By the way, thanks for the insight on silver. Based on your tip, I bought junk silver when it was at $7.80. It's hard to believe it's already over $13. Cheers, - Rookie

JWR Replies: The Paratus Farms project is still stalled because of finances, so your question is largely rhetorical at this point. But it does raise an important issue for retreat site selection: Water versus defensible terrain. Yes, The Paratus Farms property is a plateau, but it is a big plateau (nearly one square mile on the plateau top) in an area with precipitation almost year round. There is one stream that runs off the north end of the plateau. It runs 10 months of the year. In an absolute worst case multi-generational total collapse (when even photovoltaic well pumps could fail), for two months out of the year residents would have to either hike a half mile down to the year round creeks and river (on three sides) for water, or pull water up by hand from wells. The static level of the well water will be around 100 feet.) Yes, both are laborious.

Consider that access to water and defensible terrain have been trade offs since the earliest days of castle construction in Europe. If you want plentiful water, by definition you will not be on defensible high ground. In a societal collapse there will be plenty of rural locales with good farm land and water. But very few of them are suitable for defense by a small group. In my estimation, a well-trained squad on the Paratus plateau could hold off a full company of marauders. There is only one road in to the property and its seven hilltops provide mutually supporting fields of fire. Unless they are suicidal, looters will find easier pickings elsewhere.

 

Two Letters Re: Cell Phone E-911 Tracking

I'm an engineer working on E911 systems and I'd like to correct this whole post. I've included some references so all your readers can peer review.
> #1 The chip does not function unless you either... Incorrect. The requirements typically state for Public Safety and in support of local laws, the mobile station (cell phone) has to handle all network requests for location.
> #2 Its not real GPS. There are two separate systems that can be hybridized together.
First is the network based system described above that works great in urban areas with lots of compatible cell towers. It is fast, but it can not get down to 3 ft., maybe 100 m.
The second system is Mobile Station based (Cell phone) and it typically uses GPS just like a Garmin. It works great in rural areas. It is not so great in large cities as all the concrete, steel and coated glass both block and reflect the GPS signals. A differential GPS system in time can achieve accuracies in cm. However just like your Garmin, it can take a long while to search for satellites and download the data from them.
The hybridized systems, where the network and the mobile work together, can achieve the best of both accuracy/speed and urban/rural performance. The network can tell the GPS on the mobile station approximate time, approximate position (with xx km of the cellular tower), where the satellites are in the sky and lots of other information that it would take your Garmin 20 minutes to get from the satellites. Reference. Section 10.10 GPS Assistance Data for more information. This document applies to GSM and 3G/UMTS phones, but it is not atypical.
Also the new hybridized systems can combine the cell tower ranging with the GPS satellite ranging to get a system that works where neither system alone will.
#3 While it is possible...
Ah, no. The solution is Periodic measurements. in other words generating a location every 5 minutes would not affect battery life much. It is used to track commercial delivery personnel all the time.
#4 Yes there really is....
Again no. This is internet Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The FCC requirement is that x% of mobile stations can be located to certain accuracy. GPS is not a requirement.
Reference.
#5 There is also the secondary issue.
The analog is not illegal, yet. It is just not cost effective for the bandwidth reasons. Second for some networks that depend on GPS in the mobile station (typically CDMA), the old phones stand in the way of meeting the FCC requirement.
#6 Analog shutoff.
I do not have any information on this.
#7 Cell phones use lots of electrical power...
Motorola Razor talk time 200-430 minutes. Standby 180-290 hours. Reference [JWR Adds: I believe that the writer was referring to cell phone cell tower facilities rather than hand-held cell phones themselves.]

As to charging more during blackouts, any company that did this would invite a class action lawsuit for breach of contract and endangering the public.

OBTW, one other bit of FUD that I'd like to comment on:
Yes, off does not mean off in regards to modern electronic devices including cellular phones. While "off" they may need to support an alarm clock, calendar alerts, monitor battery charging, alert for low battery and do a lot of other things. However, removing all the power sources kills anything! If your phone continues to run without a charger or batteries, I think you could name your price to sell it to any of the big cell phone companies. - Raven

 

 

Jim,
I have personally been present, when a 'Federal investigator' ordered a cell phone security manager (what the heck that is I don't know) to 'turn on' a particular Electronic Serial Number (ESN).

It was my understanding that the phone had to be 'on' in the first place. It was explained to me that there was a dual mode capability. One was the retransmission of GPS positioning data and the second triangulation.

We found the 'bad guy' we were looking for for a covert surveillance regarding a narcotics investigation.

He wasn't in a call - it was a pretty weird moment for me to see this happen, and it was about four years ago. I can only imagine the capabilities built into the system mandated by post-9/11 are more enhanced than then.

I trust the data given to me by the writer about GPS positioning as he understood it. I saw different. The federal investigator was pretty closed mouth about it, and the black box he used that (I suppose) received the data was no larger than a lunchbox. Steered us right in.

I've long ago given up on trying to maintain much privacy in my electronic life. I really don't have much to hide, but if I did - electronics wouldn't have any place in my home. - Jimsee

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

From Fortune magazine: Ready for $262 Per Barrel Oil?

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A new Biodiesel Reactor Technology was announced by Oregon State University researchers. For some technical details, see this PDF.

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Some interesting commentary on the Refuge Blog: "Mistaken Entitledness is a Core Global Issue"

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U.S. Agriculture Secretary Johanns releases national animal ID implementation plan. For details, see the USDA's official plan (a PDF.) Be careful not to be fooled by their claims of "extensive dialogue with producers and industry organizations across the country." The NAIS is being advocated by the big agri-corps as a method to eliminate competition and gain access to foreign markets. Preventing disease is just an excuse. Please see the NoNAIS.org website for the other side of the debate. Please spread the word about this treachery. NoNAIS has several nice posters, pamphlets, and flyers that you can be print out.

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Study to shew thyself approved unto God, a workman that needeth not to be ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth." - 2 Timothy 2:15 (KJV)


Saturday, April 22, 2006

 

Letter Re: Cell Phone E-911 Tracking

Dear Jim,

Someone wrote about E911 phones and GPS tracking. I worked in that industry, with that specific issue and I can provide some facts.

#1 The chip does not function unless you either Dial 911 or turn it to Location On, which shows a circle with a plus sign through it and two end parentheses to its right. It is common to see the circle-plus sign without the parentheses. Check your manual to verify this. It will list this under "icons" or E911. Phones come with them preset to "911 only", not "on". Phones from Nextel/Sprint or using location based services must have the GPS turned on to work.

#2 Its not real GPS. It does not talk to satellites. Its just triangulating on the company towers. This gives an accuracy of +/- 3 feet but its main purpose is to get you to the nearest 911 call center in the event you dial 911. That's about it.

#3 While it is possible the phone operating systems could be fibbing and the Location service could be on when it says its off, that is unlikely since it would affect battery life, require violation of customer privacy rights, risks lawsuits when exposed, and requires a conspiracy to accomplish, the black helicopter kind. I'm not a fan of conspiracies since humans are very good at bungling basic stuff and very bad at keeping secrets. It is far more likely that it really is off, just like it says.

#4 Yes, there really IS a law enacted by FCC back on Sept 12, 2001 that required these chips to be mandated into phones by July 1, 2005 and all non GPS phones taken out of service by the end of 2006. Some of my former customers had received letters from their carriers and verified by the FCC to this effect.

#5 There's also the secondary issue that older phones typically have stronger and now illegal analog signal amplifiers which when running analog can block more than 720 digital calls. This has been a real waste of bandwidth and the FCC has been after the cell companies to get them off the market and into the garbage bins. The companies have handled it by offering incentives to change out the phone for a newer model with E911 and usually all digital. All digital phones don't hog bandwidth, don't block other's calls, but don't really work in the boonies either. For the boonies, you need a Tri-Mode phone. This means digital and analog backup. You also need an extendable antenna. A stub antenna is nearly worthless in analog areas because the signal won't propagate well. Many phones have plugs for antenna extension kits, the kind you can mount on a car roof and a small cable and jack to plug into the phone. Those work well, BTW.

#6 The boonies are mostly analog until Jan 1 2008, when all analog cell service is turned OFF, permanently, another FCC mandate. This means that either these sites get upgraded to digital or they lose their licenses, probably auctioned off and end up with big carriers. The carriers will do a cost study and decide for themselves whether said boonies are worth converting to digital or if they'll just let them die with no signal. Some sites may not get bought and those regions may lose cell service entirely. Cell companies are very greedy, keep in mind. If they can't make a huge profit, they won't do it at all. A small profit or slow profit is not within their timescale. It is likely that many rural areas with low populations will lose cell service entirely.

#7 Cell phones use lots of electrical power. This means that in blackouts, while they do have generators, those must be topped off. In a survival situation or one of slowly deteriorating conditions they will work, at first. The more phones in digital, the less issues with blocked service. After spending lots of money and time topping off tanks it is highly likely, if the conditions persist, that cell companies will start charging more money for calls made during blackouts than ones when the power is on. Expect to have to pay a hefty premium and overage rates for calls made during blackouts. The companies have not released any plans for this, but they already produced emergency blackout kits for their retail stores last summer, as if they fully expect to operate when the power is out, which is particularly weird since you can't activate or change service without computer access to the network switches. Hope this info helps. Best, - Marshall

 

Letter Re: A Mumps Outbreak in the U.S. Midwest

Dear Jim:
All the talk about Bird Flu, and we are noticing we have a Mumps outbreak going on: “The mumps outbreak is being called the nation's worst in 20 years. As of Thursday, Iowa had 975 cases of probable, confirmed and suspected cases, said Dr. Patricia Quinlisk, the state epidemiologist.” In addition, see the CDC's backgrounder on Mumps. Regards, - Rourke

 

 

Letter Re: Dealing with Illegal Immigration in the U.S.

Jim, I must respectfully disagree with your suggestions for dealing with illegal immigration. You stated:
1.) A stout fence and plenty of sensors, regardless of the cost, to make the southern border less porous. I believe this would be an utter waste of time and money. Here's what I anticipate from that:
Tunnels under, which already exist for the drug trade. I also heard of a case where near 1000 Mexicans just swarmed a border crossing on foot. Perhaps 1 in 10 was rounded up.
Attacking the fence will become a sport--coyotes and dogs will be goaded across minefields, or across sensors to generate false positives. Mines would be pelted with rocks. Mines will be stolen for the explosives therein. Fences will be cut or have vehicles driven through them.
Even people who don't intend to cross the border will find this a sport. Think of your local teenagers--would they enjoy this? Now, how much more peer credit would Mexican youths get in their culture for tearing down the fence?
This will cost billions to build and maintain (And being cynical, how many of those contractors will employ illegal Mexican laborers?) and accomplish less than the Maginot Line.
I heard a suggestion that we should just start shooting people. How very American. If that happens, it is the end of any pretension of morality and due process in this country.
~~~
2.) Local police and sheriff's departments empowered to arrest illegal aliens
The problem with this is under what cause? This would require them to stop anyone who appears Asian or Hispanic, and certainly will not help legitimate immigrants integrate. I've heard people recite the classic, "I don't like the idea of having to carry a federal ID, but..." I'd like to refer those people to Edmund Burke's comment. "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
~~~
and 3.) A larger staff for the Border Patrol. Without those measures, the gradual demographic of cultural and linguistic change will reach a tipping point in the border states and beyond.The problem here is that for each agent on the border, there is additional support staff and infrastructure needed, and how many suspects can they actually stop? I think the whole concept of sealing the border physically is on par with Canada's insane gun registration scheme that's over a Billion $CAN and rising, with nothing substantive accomplished.
~~
I should mention here that I am by no means a racist. Quite the contrary, I am an anti-racist. But I must concur with talk radio show host Michael Savage: "Borders, language, and culture" matter. They, in part, define a society. If those three underpinnings are not preserved, then we will wake up someday and find ourselves in someone else's society. I absolutely agree with you here.
[some comments on personal experiences with the INS snipped, for brevity]
The INS is a bloated bureaucracy, and even good people can have insane problems getting the paperwork they need.
Recently, I was up in Detroit and got some information from the Coast Guard for a book I'm writing. Here's an example of one area for consideration:
Apart from the shipping channel (23 feet) the deepest part of Lake St. Claire is 19 feet. Half of it is less than 4 feet deep. The river can be crossed by a motorboat in less than 60 seconds. There are native reservations on either side, where CG jurisdiction is awkward. Also, once on US soil, a person can't be stopped without probable cause. Both illegal aliens (usually Asians "vacationing" in Canada) and whole bags of drugs flow across this point. The CG is aware of the problem, and stops a few percent, even with 24 hour patrols.
Illegal Asian immigrants come into LA and NY in container ships. Better security at the docks will help with this, but it's a huge job at Long Beach, and we need the resources to move, not sit in port racking up fees for hours or days. Ships move in, unload while reloading and fueling, and are gone. They're losing money when not moving.
This is a case where everyone knows the problem exists, but not what to do. The trick is to differentiate people with honest intentions from layabouts.
My suggestions would include:
Not allowing anyone without proper ID to get drivers' licenses or jobs. At the same time, the government cannot Constitutionally deputize employers to handle the illegals. And following up on all reports is tough.
Requiring proper ID to register for school and vote. That's how it's done here in Indiana. I have a right to vote. That right implies protecting it from being stolen or diluted by another voter with fake ID. Ditto for my kids going to school. It's not unreasonable or unconstitutional to ID oneself to receive service from the government.
The proposed immigration bill is quite sensible in several provisions: identify aliens. Require those who have ONLY violated the border to pay a fine, and then return if recent. If they have been here some time and are a productive part of the economy, they may APPLY to be permanent residents, if an employer will sponsor them. This means enforcement efforts can be drawn away from the known, responsible parties and aimed at the clandestine and criminal parties.
I don't believe most people realize that's what the proposal says. It's not "amnesty." No one has suggested that 10 million people be granted free citizenship. They may APPLY to be residents, and, if accepted, then may APPLY to be citizens. And naturalized citizens are required to be literate, productive, not have subversive ties, and demonstrate a working knowledge of our form of government. They tend overwhelmingly to be conservative, moral, patriotic and good taxpayers. These types of immigrants should be encouraged, even if they fought their way in as refugees. (Why did Bush win Florida and therefore two elections? Because Cuban Americans have seen socialism first hand and HATE it. So they vote Republican.)
Consider the proposed alternative: an expensive wall that won't stop anyone (has the 90 mile hurricane-ridden ocean between Cuba and Miami had much effect?), billions to round up illegals IF WE CAN FIND THEM, and even if we assume $500 each to deport them (the price of JUST THE PLANE TICKETS the US is chartering to send illegal Central Americans back), we're looking at $5 BILLION. Add in the locating, the acquiring and the processing fees, and we're talking the cost of a war.
We had a war on alcohol. We have a war on drugs. Canada and parts of the US have a war on guns. None have accomplished anything. A war on illegal aliens will simply cost more billions and destroy more rights. - Michael Z. Williamson

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

I'm presently reading the novel "The Hunt for Confederate Gold" by Thomas Moore. (Published by Fusilier Books.) I'm now halfway through the novel, and I can't put it down! Without giving too much away, I can tell you that it is three storylines wrapped into one. (One of which takes place in the closing days of the Confederate States of America.) Thusfar, I can highly recommend the novel. I'll post a full review once I've finished reading it.

   o o o

The Survival Report for April 2006 from Mike "Mish" Shedlock and Brian McAuley provides some good background on the financial markets.

   o o o

SurvivalBlog reader RBS alerted me to "Strong Signals"--a fascinating site for those of you that are shortwave or scanner listener.

   o o o

A Titan 1 Missile Base in Eastern Washington is Being Auctioned on eBay. Wow! 57 acres and 120,000 square feet of underground space. I spoke with the seller about it. He said that the nice thing about this one is that the water table is down at the 400 foot level. Thus, there has been no groundwater intrusion into the silos--a common problem at missile bases in other areas. Also this one is well-removed from likely nuke targets. (Some of the other missile basesthat are for sale are in the middle of active Peacekeeper missile fields!) For some similar properties, see http://www.missilebases.com

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy. Instead of diminishing evil, it multiplies it. Through violence you may murder the liar, but you cannot murder the lie, nor establish the truth. Through violence you murder the hater, but you do not murder the hate. In fact, violence merely increases hate. Returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only Light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only Love can do that." - Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Alabama 1966.


Friday, April 21, 2006

More Surprises in the Volatile Silver Market

The New York silver market has been pushed down sharply on profit taking, to around $11.85 per ounce. (It was over $14 per ounce on Thursday, which was a 25 year high.) My advice: Look at this as a short-term buying opportunity. Buy on this dip! The silver bull should resume his charge in May.

Even at under $12 per ounce, silver is still quite high compared to just a month ago. OBTW, I recently bumped up my allowance on pre-1965 silver coinage to NINE times face value, for anyone that wants any of my mail order merchandise (or to pay for advertising, for that matter) and that would like to pay in silver coinage. (I had previously allowed seven times face value.)

The recent run-up in spot silver leads me to an observation:
In 1964, a basic blued steel Colt M1911 .45 automatic pistol cost around $65. Today they cost around $600. If you were to sell some of your cache of silver coinage at your local coin shop and then go buy a .45 at you local gun shop, you'd find that it is not autopistols that have gone up in price. Rather, it is paper dollars that have gone down in value. The bottom line: You can trust tangibles, but don't put much trust in paper currency in the long term!

 


Letter Re: Angst, Life in Turbulent Times, and Preparedness

Jim,
I read your commentary today; I've never ever had a very good crystal ball, but any good analysis could see what's coming long term... Sorry for being long winded... I'm up late working on a project and some of what I've been reading in the news has been troubling me...

It's the [Chinese President Hu [Jintao] visit... With the Chinese economy growing at double-digits and their defense budget growing at double digits and they being the four largest economy in the world. I found an interesting piece in Defense Industry Daily.

It's only a matter of time...

We gave them the technology and ability to launch missiles (to save the U.S. a few dollars in launching themselves)... God know what else we probably gave them... We continue to fund their double digit growth... Almost every corporation in America is making them the world's economic leader... China is buying up American farm land... China is funding our T-Bills, etc... "The borrow is the servant of the lender"... Look at everything you buy in the store these days (where is it being manufactured)...

With the baby boomers going into retirement starting in 2012 the country will no longer have the surplus to fund corporate growth. As the trillion dollar debt continues to grow it will rear it's ugly head...

With the U.S. not being the manufacturing based economy that saved us in WWII... We are left to being a paper tiger, intoxicated on oil without having that as an in-the-pocket resource... Oil which we are at the mercy of obtaining from very unstable sources...

The U.S. needs to encourage growth in other countries such as Brazil, Indian, Mexico, rather than fund this double digit growth... The U.S. also saw hard times in the 1970s... similar prediction were there, but with deterrence and containment and excellent leadership in high places we overcame those difficulties... We saw the iron curtain fall and with a little prayer we may see the bamboo curtain fall also. It would be great to see China become a leader of the free world... they're already good capitalist and hard workers. Their people need to see the tremendous value of freedom...

Enuf said... My prayer is that we will die watching our grandchildren grow up in freedom under a good government and that our leaders will actively plan for our future success rather than burying their heads in the sand. - John Z.

 

Letter Re: Stocking Up on Reusable Plastic Plates and Bowls

Jim,
Something just occurred to me as far as an overlooked essential: food plates and bowls. The glass mixes (Corelle, etc) are far better than the stoneware for cleanliness and durability, but they can still be broken. I found out recently that the cheap, media tie-in dishes that extol Disney and various other children's movies are not only unbreakable plastic, but are immune to gun cleaning solvent--I used an old one, figuring to throw it away when done. But a quick rinse with a dab of soap and it was clean--impervious to the chemical, not even the cartoon image was blistered. I then tried acetone, gasoline and an acidic household cleaner. These things are brutally tough.
We picked up the last batch for the kids at a Goodwill [thrift store] for five cents a plate or bowl. It may look funny at your campsite or TEOTWAWKI eating off Bug's Life or Buzz Lightyear plates, but at least you'll have plates to eat off. Or dig with. Or mix chemicals in. Or play frisbee with. - Michael Z. Williamson

 

 

Letter Re: Positive Feedback on Two SurvivalBlog Advertisers

Good Morning Mr. Rawles,
I just wanted to say how pleased I am with the services provided by your advertisers. I recently bought four 8x57 pre-1899 Turkish contract Oberndorf Mauser's from the kind gentleman in South Carolina [The Pre-1899 Specialist]. I got two of the first batch, and two of the second, nicer rifles. I have to say I was very pleased with the first two, and the second two are in fantastic condition.

I also received excellent service from Vic [at SafeCastle] in purchasing some more freeze dried food supplies. The most important point for me in using your suppliers is that I trust you, and by association I trust them. Though there may be a lengthy delay due to freeze dried food shortages, I have no concerns that I normally would while waiting for a multi-thousand dollar order to arrive. Thank you, Sir. Sincerely, - Steve Mc

 

Letter Re: Source for Reflux Still Building Plans

Sir:

In the letter titled "Stocking up on Copper Tubing/Pipe", the writer mentioned wanting to build a still. For those interested, here is an excellent step-by-step guide to building a reflux still: http://designer-drugs.com/pte/12.162.180.114/dcd/pdf/still.pdf
I would be interested in hearing of any potential uses for a still other than making alcoholic drinks. I don't use alcohol or any other drugs, but I am fascinated by the reflux distillation process and its potential uses [for fuel, disinfectant, chemical/formulary processes, et cetera] following a collapse. <>< - Stephen

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

U.S. Army Dragon Skin body armor test have been delayed.

   o o o

Oil and natural gas industry analyst Dr. Joe Duarte reports of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is taking decisive steps to turn off the oil taps to the U.S. He says that
Venezuela's state owned oil company PDVSA has inked a key deal with India, taking the first key step away from the U.S. as its major oil buyer.

   o o o

SurvivalBlog reader Scott M. told us about a novel "Send A Brick" congressional mailing campaign has been launched in the U.S., designed to a send a not so subtle message to our legislators about the need for need for better border security. By the way, we've heard that NoNAIS.org is planning "Egg Day" which will involve mailing more than 10,000 plastic Easter eggs.

   o o o

The Wiggy's 15% off sale on sleeping bags ends in just nine days. Get your order in soon! OBTW, they also have their woodland camouflage Desert Combat Parkas on sale for 25% off. (A great item.)

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"We will continue to make our greatest efforts with the utmost sincerity to seek the prospects of peaceful reunification. Meanwhile, we will never tolerate 'Taiwan independence' and never allow the 'Taiwan independence' secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from the motherland under any name or by any means." - Chinese President Hu Jintao's speech to CPPCC members on cross-straits relations, March 14, 2005


Thursday, April 20, 2006

Note from JWR: Please continue to spread the word about SurvivalBlog. I would greatly appreciate it if you sent a one or two line e-mail to family and friends on your e-mail list. Many thanks!

Angst, Life in Turbulent Times, and Preparedness

Many of my recent consulting clients have mentioned the same feeling of unease about the coming years. Perhaps it is just the general predisposition of my consulting clientele, but they nearly all say things to the effect of "I've always been well prepared, but now I consider myself under-prepared, because I feel like something big is coming." One American client summed it up best when he told me, "I get the impression that I'm living on September of 1929 or November of 1941. Something macro scale is approaching, and I want to be in the right place and to be well-provisioned when it happens."

Certainly, recent international events (Iran's posturing and threats, sectarian strife in Iraq, etc.) are cause for alarm, as is the mountain of debt (both public and private) that is looming. Gold is seen as a refuge in times of war or currency chaos, and the fact that gold and other commodities are soaring is indicative that a growing number of savvy investors see trouble coming--especially for the dollar as a currency unit. Whether it will be just another economic head cold or whether it will be double pneumonia remains to be seen. Similarly, wars and major terrorist attacks are difficult to presage. I can't in good conscience make unfounded predictions. In fact, I cannot say anything with certainty other than that tomorrow will not be like today. The bottom line is that we are living in turbulent times and it is prudent to prepare.

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

The latest murmurings from Wall Street and the Chicago Board of Trade are that the commodities markets have not nearly reached their peak. If anything, the traders say, we are in the opening stages of a secular bull market that will likely continue for several years. As I've stated on previous occasions, the second half of the Aughts will probably look a lot like the second half of the 1970s, with rising interest rates, consumer price inflation, international tensions, and galloping commodities prices.

   o o o

We just returned from a family trip down to California. (Which explains the brevity of today's posts.) The trip was enlightening if not downright alarming. I was surprised to hear so many Spanish language radio stations--they are now scattered up and down the AM dial. Some of the city buses now carry advertising placards in Spanish. Immigrant day laborers cluster on street corners, hoping for work at construction sites. I have concluded that the illegal immigration problem needs to be resolved quickly and decisively. In my opinion, the United States needs: 1.) A stout fence and plenty of sensors, regardless of the cost, to make the southern border less porous 2.) Local police and sheriff's departments empowered to arrest illegal aliens, and 3.) A larger staff for the Border Patrol. Without those measures, the gradual demographic of cultural and linguistic change will reach a tipping point in the border states and beyond. I should mention here that I am by no means a racist. Quite the contrary, I am an anti-racist. But I must concur with talk radio show host Michael Savage: "Borders, language, and culture" matter. They, in part, define a society. If those three underpinnings are not preserved, then we will wake up someday and find ourselves in someone else's society

   o o o

A rare case of Bubonic Plague in California

   o o o

More revelations on Iran's nuclear program

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Remember, no matter where you go... There you are." - Peter Weller, Buckaroo Banzai


Wednesday, April 19, 2006

From the Deep Archives: JWR's Comments on Silver and Gold

Note: I posted the following to the Usenet newsgroup "misc.survivalism" on July 17. 1997, in response to an ongoing thread about gold and silver. OBTW, at the time, gold was selling for around $320 per ounce, and silver was around $4.25 per ounce.

[LOTS deleted]
RE:
> Gold coins frequently are only some part gold - in actuality an
>alloy comprised of MOSTLY gold, but not always.  Different gold coins have
>different gold contents and it's not always clear what percent.  For
>instance, did you know that the US RARELY minted a .999 pure gold coin?
>That's why Kruggerands [sic] and Canadian Maple [Leaf]s are more pricey - they are pure
>gold.  US Gold coins are usually a 90% alloy.

That is not correct.  American Eagles weigh around 1.1 ounce, and are .900
fine.  You still get a full ounce of gold for your money.  They are made
.900 fine for durability. The .999 fine bullion coins are too soft for
general circulation.  They wear quickly.

> Q: Is my preference for small denomination silver over large denomination
> gold sound?
Yes, if you have all your other logistics (food, weapons/ammo/medical)
squared away FIRST.  

> Q: How much of this stuff should I buy?  As much as I can? Some percentage
> of my ability?
Again, after you get everything else squared away, then I'd recommend
putting roughly half of your savings in precious metals.

> Q: What should I do with this stuff in the mean time?  "Safe Deposit" , er,
> isn't.  "Creative Burial?"

Bury it!

> Q: Silver is a private store (ie, the govt cannot confiscate and doesn't
> even know I have it).  How can I keep it that way?  The company does not
> report sales to the IRS.  Hell, purchases of $1,000 or more do not even
> require the collection of taxes.
Bullion coins--even silver .999 --trade dollars"--may eventually be
subject to confiscation (Like the gold confiscation in 1933.)  I'd stick
with "junk" silver (pre-1965 U.S. circulated silver coins), and MS-60 or
higher U.S. numismatic gold pieces, preferably PCGS or NGC encapsulated
("slabbed".)

> Q: Basically, am I on the right track to preparation for economic crisis?
Only if you buy your "beans, bullets & band-aids" first.  I can't
emphasize that enough!

 

 

Letter Re: Stocking up on Copper Tubing/Pipe

I have been following the metal’ and copper in particular, as it is a very necessary part of our modern existence.
 
One of the things I envision, is a shortage of copper tubing. I have been buying a little extra every time I go to the home store. Some of it I plan use for making a still-- for making alcohol, other sizes are for my propane tanks and last but not least, I still have copper [water] pipes in my house that are going on 30 years old, so I have been buying some to replace that.
 
What is strange, is that copper tubing has almost doubled in prince in the last two years, and they say it’s because of China buying most of the worlds production for electronics and other stuff. Not sure, but I have been getting a good replacement stock of the tubing.
 
BTW there are several different grades of tubing and you need to be buying the K grade as it is thicker walled, and approved for propane. The M grade is not approved for propane, as it has thinner walls. The K grade bends easily without kinking, and the M grade will not bend [properly] at all. Most of the solder-on fittings are for the M grade and the compression type and flare fittings are for K tubing. - Mel

 

 

Odds 'n Sods:

Cowabunga! Spot silver is over $14 per ounce, and gold is at $621. The shorts are heading for the hills! There may be some fright inducing pull-backs along the way, but I think that this bull market is just getting started. Consider any deep dips your best buying opportunities.

   o o o


Richard Kiyosaki on "The Coming Oil Crisis"

   o o o

From the Second Amendment Foundation: More than seven months have passed since New Orleans residents were forcibly and illegally disarmed in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, and starting Monday, April 17, the City of New Orleans will be returning seized firearms to their rightful owners, thanks to legal action by the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) and National Rifle Association (NRA). 'We’ve learned from the police that starting Monday at 8 a.m., New Orleans gun owners can get their firearms back,” noted SAF founder Alan Gottlieb. “The city had been denying for more than five months that these guns were in possession. Only when SAF and the NRA filed a motion to have Mayor Ray Nagin and Police Superintendent Warren Riley held in contempt of court did city officials miraculously discover that more than a thousand seized firearms were being stored.”

   o o o

The folks at The Pre-1899 Specialist mentioned that their latest batch of 8 x57 pre-1899 Turkish contract Oberndorf Mauser rifles is by far the nicest that they've ever had. Recognizing their scarcity, one SurvivalBlog reader recently bought four of them. Since they were all made between 1894 and 1896, they are Federally exempt "antiques" --which means no paperwork required for delivery to most states. (No Form 4473 required!)

   o o o

Swiss America Trading quotes Frank Gaffney on the Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Threat.

   o o o

"Reversion to the mean" bodes well for the price of gold . Less than a year ago, the price ratio of silver to gold was around 70-to-1. Currently, it is bucking the trend and is down to around 44-to-1. Assuming that prices will follow their tendency for the ratio to revert to the long term trend ("reversion to the mean"), that will equate to $980 per ounce gold, even if silver stays in the $14 range. (And I expect $20+ silver within another year.) Tempering this, there are those who contend that the silver/gold ratio will return to the classic 15-to-1 ratio. Why? Unlike gold, most industrial silver is not recovered after use, and eventually the supply of available silver will dwindle.

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"We have counted the cost of this contest, and find nothing so dreadful as voluntary slavery. - Honor, justice, and humanity, forbid us tamely to surrender that freedom which we received from our gallant ancestors, and which our innocent posterity have a right to receive from us. We cannot endure the infamy and guilt of resigning succeeding generations to that wretchedness which inevitably awaits them, if we basely entail hereditary bondage upon them." - John Dickenson and Thomas Jefferson, Continental Congress, July 6, 1775, Declaration of Causes and Necessity for Taking Up Arms


Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Responding to the Ongoing Middle East Crisis

There are a great many imponderables that have surfaced with the current saber-rattling situation in the Middle East. But one thing is clear--the uncertainty is rippling through the commodities markets. I guess you've all seen the higher prices at the gas pump, and the precious metals are spiking. For example, see the charts at Kitco. (To get the big picture, click on the one year chart, down at the bottom of that web page.) Silver was over $13.50 per ounce yesterday afternoon!

What can you do?

1.) Pray for peace. Please pray for the survival of the people and nation of Israel.

2.) If you have any friends that live (or are stationed) in the Middle East, check and see it they have any Potassium Iodate (KI) on hand, to prevent thyroid damage if they are exposed to fallout. They should also have a fallout dosimeter, fallout rate meter, and a charger for both. Warn them about consuming fresh dairy products that are produced in any fallout area. Fallout probably won't be much of issue here in the States unless the situation escalates into a full scale exchange. KI and fallout meters are available from a number of vendors including www.ReadyMadeResources.com , www.KI4U.com, and JRH Enterprises.

3.) Prepare for the global economic consequences of regional war in the Middle East. If you have a propane, gas, diesel, or heating oil tank, switch to more expensive "keep filled" contracts instead of waiting until your tanks get nearly empty for your re-fills. If you don't already have large capacity vehicle and heating fuel storage tanks at your home/retreat, then invest in tanks and keep them full and stabilized. It will be better than money in the bank

4.) Diversify out of the U.S. Dollar. The dollar is already in trouble, and if the Islamic nations declare war on the dollar (since they most assuredly see the U.S. as an ally of Israel), they could both dump their dollar-denominated assets and start demanding payment for oil in Euros. (Part of the current crisis has been caused by Iran announcing a new oil bourse denominated in Euros.) Put your money in tangibles: productive farm land, precious metals, common caliber ammunition, extra guns, gold, and silver will be your best bets. Buy physical metals and hide them very well at home. Don't buy silver or gold ETF shares, or leave your metals in a safe deposit box. In a severe economic crisis, who knows how government might over-react and attempt to seize precious metals assets.

5.) Take prudent food storage measures for your family, with the assumption that the economic impact of war in the Middle East could have far-reaching effects.

6.) Repeat step #1, daily.


Letter Re: A New Breed of Feral Dogs, by Buckshot

Mr. Rawles,

The most vital point, I think, of Buckshot's piece is not that feral dogs will eat us all alive, but that [applying] current attitudes in future scenarios CAN GET YOU KILLED!
  You'd better get you mind wrapped around the hard decisions now the best you can.  Buckshot is exactly right: if you're making decisions on the fly as a situation unfolds, you're dog food.  The same goes for any, shall we say, less-than-polite social encounters with humans.  ARIES (Autonomic Response In Extreme Stress) is an acronym we used when I taught self-defense.  Most guys would pooh-pooh the idea because they were super-fit and could  kick you right in the face with ease.  They never got the idea of Spiritual Point of Origin, a concept that one attains when you've wrestled with all the moral-ethical dilemmas, as well as realizing one's physical capabilities AND limitations.  The "dojo jock" never prepared for any real conflict; it's all a game, but the minute things changed up, they end up getting the cr*p beat out of them.  When you are under stress, you will become much less coordinated, particularly in fine motor skills (read: sight acquisition, operating safety levers, firing-and moving maneuvers) unless they have been practiced to the point of neuro-muscular memory (i.e. second nature).  You WILL perform AS you have practiced, not just WHAT you have practiced.  Remember, practice DOES NOT make perfect; practice makes permanent what is practiced.  Now is the time to deal with the mental aspects of what you will need  to keep you and yours, safe and alive, not when the wolves (dog pack, murderous thugs) are at your door.  A perfect example is the horrific Manson Family murders: while testifying at their trials the women of Charlie's lovely little clan complained bitterly how hard it was to kill Sharon Tate, that she pulled their hair and  kicked and pushed them away. She possessed the will to fight back, but apparently lacked either  the skill to fight effectively, or, more likely, the willingness to injure a fellow human being.  Students in self-defense classes get squeamish when the idea of eye-gouging or kicking to the trachea comes up, but in reality, if you're not willing to do what it takes to win the fight, WHY ARE YOU IN A FIGHT? Better to surrender now, save yourself the beating, and pray that you will be rescued by some unforeseen circumstance.  Remember, suspect first, prospect later.  You are only paranoid if they're not out to get you. - Bonehedz

 



Letter Re: Unintended Consequences of a Failure of Basic Services in a Disaster

Jim:
When I was a river [rafting] guide we used toilets made of [military surplus wooden] rocket boxes.
 
The premise is to take a large Army rocket box (a toilet lid fits inside ) and use double lined plastic bags and plenty of powdered lime. Regular old lime for the disinfectant.
 
We would use on of these on extended wilderness rafting trips for 30 or 40 people.
 
Here’s how it works. Set up the rocket box and remove the large roll of heavy black plastic trash bags. Take TWO bags and double bag them and line the inside of the box.
 
Set the lid on top and ONLY put toilet paper and feces in the box. All urine goes on the ground. After doing your business  take a small scoop of lime and sprinkle enough of the powder to cover the waste. After finishing, remove the seat and place the lid back on but don’t seal it. The next person comes along, takes the lid off (which keeps the flies out ) and puts the toilet seat on and does the same.
 
When a bag is full, remove it from the box, and tie off and then put it inside another bag in case of leaks.
 
This gets put in the trash bags for later disposal. ONE rocket box can handle about 30 people for a weekend easily going through 2 to 4 bags every 2 or 3 days. We always brought two, one for women and one for men. Once ready to break camp, we removed the bag of dump, put the bucket of lime, the roll of trash bags and the lid inside the box and sealed the lid.
 
This was VERY effective and met the U.S. Forest Service "pack it in, pack it out" rule.
 
Lime is a VERY good thing to stockpile. In addition to keeping the oders down on feces, it can also keep the odor down on rotting bodies, as will 20 Mule Team Borax. I use that for raw tanning hides and have some that have NEVER been chemical tanned and ONLY had Borax and are now going on 10 years with no hair slippage or odor. These are deer hides that I have made into rugs. - Mel

 

Odds 'n Sods:

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alternately threatens to annihilate or "liberate" Israel. With these tensions is it any wonder oil an precious metals are spiking?

   o o o

David Limbaugh comments on "Immigration Madness"

   o o o

It looks as if the short squeeze that I predicted in the silver market is starting to unfold. Look for a substantial spike in the price of spot silver in the next two weeks, as the shorts panic to cover their positions. This spike may very well be followed by some profit taking, but who knows--the stair step pattern may persist.

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Iran has dropped its pretense of benign intent. It has used the passing time to disperse, diversify, conceal, and protect its nuclear centers. But [the U.S.] cannot prevent this through military means—unless it is willing to commit itself to all-out war. Realism about Iran starts with throwing out any plans to bomb." - James Fallows, The Atlantic.


Monday, April 17, 2006

Note from JWR: The first letter posted today is a thought-provoking piece directed toward fellow Christians, but the issues that it raises might be of interest to those of you that are not religious. I often stress charity in my writings. As a Christian, I consider charity my duty, and I feel strongly convicted to have extra food and gardening seed on hand to dispense as charity in the event of a disaster. Even for those of you that are not religious, I still recommend the practice, since it demonstrates kindness, and kindness builds trust instead of distrust. When times get bad, you will want neighbors that you can trust.

 

Letter Re: Questions on Saving, Interest, and Preparation Versus Hoarding, Usury, and Covetousness--Can These be Tempered by Charity?

James:
 I offer the following discussion (and answers, I hope) for Christians.
 
Proposition/assumptions: Good financial planning and even seeming ‘common sense’ dictates that we plan our income and expenditures wisely so as to have the ability to withstand a crisis.  This plan makes sense on an intuitive level, and also can be argued quite easily that as a Christian we have a duty to provide for the life and livelihood of our dependents; and that this provision includes saving money and goods for the event of hard times.  Or does it?
Our Christian duty is also unquestionably to be charitable and to avoid the sin of covetousness/greed.  First, some definitions:

Covet (verb: to covet): to wish, long, or crave for something, especially the property of another person
 
Greed: excessive desire to acquire or possess more (especially more material wealth) than one needs or deserves (syn. Avarice: a more religious term, one of the Seven Deadly Sins)
 
Charity: (one of the Three Theological Virtues), meaning loving kindness towards others; it is held to be the ultimate perfection of the human spirit, because it is said to both glorify and reflect the nature of God. In its most extreme form charity can be self-sacrificial. Charity is one conventional English translation of the Greek term agapeAgape to the early Christians meant that inner bond of blessed union which united the individual with divinity, and mankind with their fellowmen. Till our eyes are fully opened, "there abideth faith, hope, and charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity" (1 Cor 13).  Charity is commonly understood to mean ‘giving to the needy’.
 
Reflections:  Is there gray area?  Where is it?  Is saving the necessary substantial sum for a child’s college education acceptable?  Is having six months living expenses in the bank acceptable?  Is a year’s worth of food storage acceptable?  Can I save for economic downturns without knowing with certainty that they will come?  Can I save for them knowing for certain that they WILL come, but not for certain that it will result in my inability to provide for my family?
 
What amount of saving is acceptable?  Where does it become ‘hoarding’?  Is the sin of greed more one of quantity, or one of attitude?
 
If any amount of saving is acceptable, how much?  Is it acceptable to save excluding  charity until the acceptable amount is reached?  Or are we obliged to give to charity while saving toward that amount?
 
It is generally accepted that Christians must lend without charging interest; but in what circumstances?  All without exception?  Toward family members?  To other Christians?  Can we earn interest on investments?  Is an interest-earning savings account acceptable? 
 
Can we earn interest in excess of the rate of inflation without sin?
 
Can we sell our home for a profit if we do not need a larger home to accommodate our own immediate needs? 
 
And some rhetorical questions, not meant to insult; but to add more facets for discussion: Does God always provide for his faithful?  Historically, have Christians been safe from starvation through economic hard times?   Is not saving and preparing for disaster a simple reality of living in the temporal world The Almighty has placed us into?  Is saving a function of ‘giving to Caesar’, which is considered acceptable as long as we also give to God? - C.P., MD

 

 

Letter Re: Survive or Prevail?

Jim,
I wanted to share the following with you. It really made me stop and think. I just finished reading G. Gordon Liddy’s book "When I Was A Kid, This Was A Free Country." It is a very good read. Chapter seven is titled "Survive Or Prevail," and in it he makes an excellent point. Do we want to survive, or prevail? The dictionary says that "to survive" means merely "to continue to live or exist." Yet the definition of "prevail" means "to overcome; to gain the victory or superiority; to gain the advantage; to have the upper hand, or the mastery; to win; to triumph; to be victorious." Being a survivor and surviving a SHTF situation is not a bad thing, but we are capable of, and should try for much more. We may indeed end up just surviving, but as my Dad used to say: "Shoot for the stars and you might hit the moon. Shoot for the moon, and you might hit your foot." We should all be aiming to be "prevailers." - Gung-Ho

 

Letter Re: Copper Price Galloping

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I have wanted to write to you for a week or two with respect to an oddity.  An increasing number of sources are discussing the degree to which the base metal in the US penny is becoming more valuable than the penny itself.  This is odd, and www.coinflation.comis tracking it with alleged numerical precision.  If I get some spare time this week, I hope to write about the death of the penny in more detail. Best Regards, - K.A.D.

JWR Replies: Silver is more than 45 times more bulky than gold, but I still recommend investing in it. However, I can't recommend investing in physical copper. As a base metal, it is far too heavy and bulky to be practical as a tangible investment. Just $2,000 worth would be too heavy to carry in a car. Perhaps if you are a retiree that lives at your retreat year-round, and if you have no intention of moving for the rest of our retired life. For anyone else, I cannot recommend investing base metals. Since only pre-1982 U.S. pennies are all copper (the later ones are copper-flashed zinc tokens) unless copper skyrockets, it is hardly worth your time to sort pennies. (But you might get lucky and find a cache of pre-1982 penny rolls.)

 

Odds 'n Sods:

Chuck the Welding Wizard introduced me to an amazing publication, called the Encyclopedia of "Made it Myself " Ideas. (30th Anniversary Edition, published by the folks at Farm Show Magazine). It has a wealth of knowledge on farm machinery modifications and outlandish inventions, some of which will doubtless prove useful at a retreat. It is available through http://www.farmshow.com. While you are at it, I recommend that you get their collection of magazine back issues on CD-ROM--less than $40 for 30 years of back issues.

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Former Federal Reserve Chairman Al Greenspan says that he regrets "irrational exuberance"

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Another U.S. mountain lion attack

 

 

Jim's Quote of the Day:

"If you don't have anything worthwhile to pass on, pass on." - Kurt Saxon


Sunday, April 16, 2006

Note from JWR: We're having some difficulties getting our continuous loop scrolling ad bar to work with Internet Explorer. :-( So unless you have Firefox, Safari, or Netscape, our ads may "disappear" until we get things straightened out. (Needless to say, I'll be crediting all of our advertisers for some free days.) We may revert to non-scrolling ads for a while. Thanks for your patience.) As long as we are on the topic, I highly recommend t