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Monday, October 31, 2005

Poll:  What are the Best Items to Store for Barter and Charity? (SAs: Barter, Barter Items, Charity)

Everyone seems to have their own opinions about what are the best items to keep on hand for post-TEOTWAWKI bartering. I did mention a large variety of barter items in the Barter Faire chapter of my novel Patriots  (The chapter titled: "For an Ounce of Gold.") Of course many of the same items are important to keep on hand to dispense as charity.

Since two heads are better than one, and by extension 5,000 heads are better than two, I'm taking a poll:  Please e-mail me your lists of preferred barter and charity items, and I will gladly post them.

My personal favorites are:
.22 Long Rifle rimfire ammo
1 oz. bottles of military rifle bore cleaner
Waterproof duffle bags ("dry bags")
Thermal socks
Semi-waterproof matches (from military MRE rations)
Military web gear (lots of folks will *suddenly* need pistol belts, holsters, magazine pouches, et cetera.)
Pre-1965 U.S. silver dimes
1 gallon cans of kerosene
1 pound canisters of salt (may be worth plenty in inland areas)
Small bottles of two cycle gas mixing oil (for chainsaw fuel)
Rolls of olive drab parachute cord
Rolls of olive drab duct tape
Spools of monofilament fishing line
Rolls of 10 mil "Visqueen" sheet plastic (for replacing windows, etc.)

I also respect the opinion of one gentleman with whom I've corresponded, who recommended the following: Strike anywhere matches.
Playing cards.
Cooking spices.
Rope and string.
Sewing supplies.
Candle wax/wick.

Again, I would greatly appreciate seeing your barter and charity item lists.  Please e-mail me your lists and I will post them in the next few days.

 

Radiation Protection Factors for Dummies - by L.H. (SAs: Fallout Shelters, Fallout Protection, Retreat Architecture, HEPA Filters, Disaster Preparedness, Emerging Threats)

When building a homemade fallout shelter in a basement, or on a cement slab inside the first floor, it is important to understand halving thickness and protection factors.
First of all, after a nuclear detonation, there will be light, heat, and a blast wave. This essay assumes that you will be out of that target area, with your home and roof intact. If you are close to targets, you may need better shelter than this improvised model. At the end of this essay I will list a few sources showing target maps, fallout maps, blast areas, etc.
Fallout is the mixture of the dirt and materials at the site of the blast, all mixed up with radioactive material. Every single piece is radioactive. Near the blast it can fall out like gravel, then farther away like rice grains, then like sand, and then like fine powder. And every fallout particle is sending out gamma rays.

You need to take almost immediate shelter for the gamma radiation from fallout. Gamma rays are part of the electromagnetic spectrum, like radio waves and X-rays and light. If you picture the fallout landing on trees and the ground being like tiny little light bulbs, you realize that even in a basement there will be dim, indirect light. If your basement walls stick up a couple feet above the ground level, there will be lots of little light bulbs all along the edge of the basement shining at you. As light and radio waves reflect off the atmosphere, in the same way the gamma rays scatter off the air. Little light bulbs will land on trees and the roof. You want to dim/block them as much as possible, on all four sides and overhead.

HALVING THICKNESS:
A halving thickness is the amount of material that will block half of the gamma rays passing through it. Any mass will block them, whether lead or feathers, sand or chocolate bars, as long as you have enough mass. You can use all of your survival foods and other items to add extra shielding.
Here is a list of materials and their approximate halving thicknesses. (References differ slightly when listing these figures.)

2.2” concrete
3.5” sand or dirt
4.4” water
8.8” wood
0.7”steel
7” books or magazines
4”hollow concrete blocks
3.2” red bricks
5” broken anthracite coal
5” wet peat moss

Here is where many items you are storing up can contribute to shielding. [JWR Adds: If in sealed containers, these foodstuffs will still be safe to consume after shelter emergence if any residual fallout dust is first washed off of the exterior of the container.]
7” sugar
7” navy or soy beans
7” butter or oil
7” shelled corn
7” wheat
7” potatoes
7” rice
12” coffee beans
9” apples

Now, one layer of any item above will block half the gamma rays. That is 1/2, which is called a protection factor (PF) of 2 (read only the denominator of the fraction). 1/2 of the rays are hitting you, 1/2 are blocked. By adding one more halving thickness, you block half of the remaining gamma rays, so now 1/4 are hitting you. So you have a protection factor (PF) of 4. Another layer blocks 1/2 of that remaining 1/2 of the radiation, so that means only 1/8 of the original total outside radiation is hitting you, and you have a PF of 8.
A fourth layer of anything listed above blocks half of that 1/8 radiation still entering, so now we only have 1/16 of the outside gamma rays hitting our body. ( PF 16)
5 layers= PF 32
6 layers=PF 64
7 layers=PF 128
8 layers=PF 256
9 layers=PF 512
10 layers=PF 1024

Now, how much of a PF do you need? The answer involves how much gamma radiation, or rads/ Roentgens, are in the fallout outside your house. They are called “R”. The less R the better. 50 in one day is considered the most you can safely handle, or 10 a day for a week, or 100 over the course of two weeks. So your shelter must not let you get more than 100 R in two weeks. (It is far safer to get none or almost none.)

So, how many R will be outside after bombs, and how does PF relate?  The first question depends on where you are and where the bombs are, how big the bombs are, and where the wind is blowing. If you are 25 miles from a total of two megatons blowing your direction, during the course of two weeks there will about 4,500 R total outside. If 200 Russian bombs go off nationwide, the East coast can easily get 20,000 R outside during two weeks. If you are 25 miles from a target that might get four big bombs you could easily have 20,000 R outside. Suitcase nukes would produce much less fallout. You have to decide if you expect limited suitcase nukes, a limited Russian strike with MIRVs (several bombs on one target area equaling one megaton total), or a “real” nuclear war with perhaps hundreds of big bombs of two or more megatons each. Sources below show fallout possibility maps.
Now, how does PF relate to the R outside?
Remember that the bottom denominator of the fraction is the PF, telling you what fraction of the fallout (R) is hitting you. A PF of 2 means half of it is hitting you. A PF of 16 means 1/16 of it is hitting you. A PF of 100 means only 1/100 is hitting you.
If it is 20,000 R total outside during two weeks, you don’t want to get more than 100 R, so you need a PF of 200. Makes sense? Divide the R by the PF. 20,000 divided by 200=100. If one 2 megaton bomb detonates near you, and the R over two weeks is 4,000, what PF do you need to only get 100 R? 4,000 divide by what equals 100? Answer is 40.So, a shelter with a PF of only 40 can save your life. This is the FEMA minimum standard. PF 200 is much safer. The ideal is PF 1,000, which equals about 3 feet of dirt or sand, or 22” of cement. STRIVE TO GET AS CLOSETO A PF 1000 AS YOU CAN, OR AT THE VERY LEAST A PF 200.
Now the basement shelter should have a PF 1000 on all four sides. If you cover the exposed sides of the basement, outside, up and over the ceiling level, with ten layers of the halving thickness chart items (3 feet of sand or 4 feet of hollow concrete blocks) your basement will have an automatic PF of 10. That means 90% of the fallout is already blocked, and you need to only get a PF of 100 on the four inside walls and overhead for a total PF of 1000. That means seven layers of the materials listed above.
4 feet thick of old magazines and paper will work. Stagger some water barrels. You can get 5 gallon buckets of wheat and rice and beans, and stagger them so there is 4 feet total of wheat and beans on the sides. About 5 feet of wood works too. Personally, I think the 7 foot thick wall of coffee is a good idea.

The hardest part is the overhead shielding. A basement support with 10.5” of sand 3.5x3) has three halving thicknesses or a PF of 8. Add one more layer and you are up to PF 16. My first and second floor and roof are at least another halving thickness for a PF of 32.
(This is easily done with the steel shelving units at Home Depot that hold 2,000 lbs per each top shelf (20 cubic feet of sand): with two units that is a foot of sand over 40 square feet. [this was my method, but I don’t trust the specs and used more supports per cubic foot.] Or make your own supports with 4x4’s, or cinder blocks with 1/2 inch plywood. Try to get 4 layers ( PF 16) overhead, using sand, or maybe some cinder blocks with a waterbed on top of that. Hopefully the house floors and roof will then get you to PF 32.)
As soon as the bombs go off, you pile 7” of books and wheat and beans on the first floor directly overhead. That gives you a PF of 64. (The overhead PF of 32-64 will save your life if all four sides are PF 1000, even if fallout is severe.) Better to pile on more stuff though, another 7” of stuff- plenty of your cans and heavy items. Anything with mass. That gives you a PF of 128 just from last minute living room piles. This is for a worst case scenario. But if we have a limited strike, the fallout will be far less for most of us. Even one waterbed overhead on the first floor, with 9” of water, gives a PF of 4. That means you get 1/4 of the initial radiation. If it is 600 R overhead, with no shelter you will get severely ill and might die. Just using the waterbed over the basement with basement walls covered up outside all the way up, means that you get 150 R and will be basically OK.
So, the moral of this story is, start now and do what you can. Don’t feel like it is useless to only do a little, if you can’t do a perfect shelter. Do what you can now and build up the shielding as you get money. Start with a foot on all sides, and try and get to 18”. Then go for two feet next summer. Think about your stash of preps and books, and what can go overhead on the first floor. Mark off the first floor spot that will have last minute cans and buckets and books. Clear the basement area, and get the flashlights and bedding ready. Try really, really, hard to do something in the basement- overhead- now, even an old table you can lie down under covered with cans and buckets.

Sources:
You can find lots of useful information here: http://www.radshelters4u.com/, including a free download of Nuclear War Survival Skills, and all sorts of maps and diagrams.
Our favorite book for basement shelters is J Allan South’s “The Sense of Survival.” This wonderful little chart compares the mass of many items. Use sand and dirt as your standard for a halving thickness, and you can see how various things like beans and wheat and wood compare.  http://www.reade.com/Particle_Briefings/spec_gra2.html


JWR Adds: I consider a home fallout shelter a must for anyone that is serious about preparedness.  The end of the Cold War--culminating with the breakup of the former Soviet Union--significantly increased the risk of the use of nuclear weapons. (Since traditional nation states are are much more responsible with their toys than are rogue states or terrorist groups.)  Two SurvivalBlog advertisers (Safe Castle and Ready Made Resources) offer prefabricated shelters as well as consulting on shelter construction and HEPA air filtration systems.  Also, be sure to read the extensive information on fallout shelter design, construction and ventilation available for free download at Dr. Arthur B. Robinson's Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine web site.

 

Letter from "Fred the Valmet Meister" Re: Low Compression / Low RPM Stationary Engines (SAs: Generators, Water Pumps, Appropriate Technology)

Jim:
I just discovered these cool "Hit and Miss" gas engines made in the 1920s and 1930s by Maytag. They were used to power washing machines. Very simple engine; maybe one horsepower. You start it with a foot pedal that leverages a gear to spin the crankshaft to get it going. What a wonderful little engine for a remote location.  These could be used to power the washing machine or even run a small generator to charge up a bank of 12 volt batteries. I noticed that there are currently several for sale on eBay and they even have leather drive belts for them and water pumps. Could be used to fill up a water tank for gravity feed. - Fred

 


Jim's Quote of the Day:

"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds." - Samuel Adams


Sunday, October 30, 2005


Letter Re: The Micro-Farm Tractor (SAs:  Survival Vehicles, Tractors, Rototillers, Gardening, Provisioning)

In response to the excellent article, "The Micro-Farm Tractor", I have to say my best bet for all-around small farm tool would be the diesel all terrain vehicle (ATV). ATVs have quickly infiltrated into many farms today, as haulers, sprayers, snowplows, transport, and so on. You can purchase many available farm accessories that make it into the equivalent of a mini-tractor, as well has many hunting related accessories, since they appeal to the hunter's market as well, like gun racks, camo, storage, and essential noise-cutting mufflers (very effective units can be had at Cabela's). I would suggest a diesel unit, since they are longer lasting, more reliable, and you can use stored (for several years with proper preservation) or improvised diesel (biodiesel.)  I was out elk hunting last year in foul weather and I immediately saw the advantage hunters had getting around in the muck with an ATV. If we had actually taken an elk, we would have had to spend all weekend hauling pieces of it out! (In a way we were glad we didn't get one where we were hunting, seven miles down a mucky old road, with steep hills to the right and a steep ravine to the left). With an ATV, we could have gotten a whole animal out in one or two goes, with a lot less slogging in the muck. Just make sure you've got a winch, and maybe even a come-along. Also, many of the hunters were able to cruise with an ATV on trails that would (and have) gotten me stuck in the mud. To sum it up, I plan on purchasing one or two as soon as our move to a few acres of rural property in southern utah is completed early next year to use as my mini-tractor, hunting companion, snowplower, all-around hauler and 4 wheel drive short distance transport. - Dustin

JWR Replies:  In addition to biodiesel, you can also legally use home heating oil if operating off road. (The only significant differences between diesel and home heating oil are the "no tax cheating" added dye and the standard for ash content.) There are several options for diesel-powered ATVs. These include:

The Kawasaki Mule. See: http://www.atvsource.com/manufacturers/kawasaki/2003/mule_3010_diesel.htm

and,

The John Deere Gator. See:  http://off-road.com/atv/reviews/quads/gator-2003_02/

(The U.S. Army Special Forces uses John Deere Gators, but I'm not sure if that's because they are the best ones made, or just because of a "Buy American"  contracting clause. Perhaps one of our SurvivalBlog readers in SOCOM can comment on their opinion of the Gators.

Note: Polaris also made a diesel quad back around 2002, but they were reportedly problematic, so they were quickly discontinued.

 

Letter from Mr. Lima Re: CONEX Containers (SAs: Retreat Storage, CONEXes)

Jim,
Per the letter from the Blog reader regarding CONEX containers- Yes they are a great way to store bulk supplies at your retreat. I've been using them for almost eight years now and have noticed several things when using them.

First, try to get one made of "COR-TEN" steel. My father has years of metalworking experience and pointed out one of ours that is made of COR-TEN. It reputedly holds up better. I've seen a noticeable difference in the one COR-TEN we have compared to several others not made of it.

You might want to weigh the difference in cost between finding one locally or buying one closer to the coast and preferably a major seaport where they will be cheaper. Shipping costs being the deciding factor, as well as condition of container. We've never paid more than $1,500 for a 40 foot container and you can find them for around $1,000. if you shop around. Keep in mind most places will just give you a general quote on the phone. You want to go to their yard and check one out for yourself, make sure the doors close and latch properly, climb up on the roof, and inspect closely for holes.

Figure out EXACTLY where you want it dropped, unless you have heavy equipment- and I don't mean a small tractor- you will not be moving it from that position.

Go to the junkyard and get four to six old metal tire rims. Put them down on the corners below the container. It will help air circulate a little bit under it. We've had problems with moisture coming up from the ground in to two of the units. Doing this helped the problem immensely.

Readers should plan to ventilate the containers, as you mentioned, even if it's just for storage. They get very hot. Might not be an issue up North, but it is here in the South.

Re: Use as a bunker or as hardened shelter, etc. Keep in mind that CONEX/SeaLand type containers have most of their strength in the floor and on the corners of the roof (which is probably why they can stack them a dozen high on ships). You absolutely MUST reinforce the insides if you plan on completely burying one. (Such as 6x6s or heavy timbers.)

Here is what [U.S. Army] FM 5-103 "Survivability" says about containers (page 4-31):
"Large metal shipping containers such as CONEX containers, are used to make effective shelters... ...are easily converted into protective command posts, communications shelters, troop shelters, aid stations, and shelters for critical supplies. Because the CONEX container's floor is stronger than it's roof, it is inverted to resist more blast and provide some overhead cover. Although the shelter sometimes constructed above ground, it is easier to construct it below ground by placing the inverted CONEX container in a hole half it's height and then covering the roof with earth."

For our purposes, shipping containers make great storage facilities and can make use as initial entrances into shelter systems, housing for families, etc. They are fairly secure and can be used for pre-positioning of bulk supplies even at the "absentee owner" type retreat. Hope this helps. - Mr. Lima

 

Letter Re:  Understanding Human Immune System Response to Infection (SAs:  Emerging Threats, Disaster Preparedness, Asian Avian Flu, Inoculation, Pneumovax, Immune Response, Cytokines)

Hello! I just finished reading Patriots   for a third time - INCREDIBLE book. I'm also a good friend of "Dr. Buckaroo Banzai." I have a master's degree in immunology and teach in a nursing program at a local college. My comments are aimed at the general education of the readership of your blog. The immune system operates largely on the function of T-helper cells. There are two main T-helper varieties. One variety (T-h1) deals with intracellular pathogens (viruses, few bacteria) and the other (T-h2) deals with extra-cellular pathogens (majority of bacteria, protozoa, fungi).  What separates these two groups are the cytokines (chemicals which modulate immune response) that are released. T-h1 cytokines promote immunity to intracellular pathogens AND SUPRESS the function of T-h2 cells. What this means is that the body's response to a viral infection WILL leave the patient more susceptible to a bacterial infection. The opposite is true as well - bacterial infections leave the body less prepared to deal with viral infections. Just thought you'd want some of the background here! Keep up the good work, keep your powder dry, and God bless! - Dr. Rocky J. Squirrel

 

Letter Re: Power Outage Alarms (SAs:  Disaster Preparedness, Power Failures, CO Detectors)

Jim,
Thanks for keeping up the good work. I have inadvertently discovered a great power outage alarm. We were bought a carbon monoxide detector a while back. Whenever the power is cut, or the unit is un-plugged, it WILL wake you up!   I don't know how long it continues to go off because it is so loud, I get it stopped right away. This is an item we should all have, too, just to detect the carbon monoxide. - Sid

 

Letter Re: Knob Creek Machinegun Shoot and Patton Museum Photos  (SAs: Survival Guns, Armored Vehicles)

Mr. Rawles, this started out as an entry for your preparedness articles writing contest. Unfortunately, it took a different turn and I don't have the time to devote to it. The value of my research is these pictures. See:  http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=169180#post169180 I hope you enjoy! - Johnny, a.k.a. swampthing


Jim's Quote of the Day:

"We are never prepared for what we expect."  - James A. Michener, Caravans


Saturday, October 29, 2005

Note from JWR: Today we feature still another entry for the SurvivalBlog writing contest. The prize is a transferable four day course certificate, good for any course at Front Sight. Get your non-fiction articles submitted via e-mail by the end of November to be considered for the contest. Most of the articles that have been submitted thusfar are fairly general.  Feel free to submit detailed articles on specific topicsAll will be considered for posting.

 

Jeff in Afghanistan on: The Combat/Survival Mindset (SAs:  Survival Mindset, Self Defense, Psychology of Self Defense)

I have been a soldier, police officer, and am now working overseas as a security contractor in Afghanistan. I’ve attended and given a great deal of firearms related training, and over the past few years I’ve started to see a serious deficiency in typical law enforcement and self defense training. The United States is a country filled with people who live lives mostly untouched by serious violence. That fact is a good thing, and is a testament to our country, but it handicaps us in the way we train ourselves and our warriors, particularly our police. I want to cut directly to the main issue I see. In my experience most shooters who practice with any frequency have decent basic skills. I see quite a few who are very good shots and have some basic tactical skills. Americans have access to good firearms and equipment, as do American police officers. However, I believe most self defense minded people, and indeed most police officers, are trained to fail by their departments, their instructors, and their society.

Most police departments require officers to qualify quarterly, and many departments are moving toward realistic shooting and away from static paper punching. The department I worked for offered different holsters for officers, and if officers wanted to change, they had to practice with the holster and demonstrate at the range that they could smoothly draw and make accurate shots very quickly. Technically most of the officers were decent and some were quite skilled with their equipment. Many fired their weapons on a weekly basis and dry fired daily to keep skills sharp.

Where the department and society in general let them down was in mental preparation. If an officer is involved in a shooting, the officer is immediately put on suspension while the incident is investigated. Most of the time, though admittedly not all, the suspension creates a pall around the officer. Counselors are brought in and the officer is typically required to attend. The legal environment is such that officers live in fear of the almost certain law suit that will follow the shooting. If the officer has done everything right, the chances of losing an actual trial in front of a jury are small, but officers know the agency/city or county my settle for a lesser amount to put the issue away. City managers would rather write a smaller check and settle with the wounded or dead criminal’s family than suffer the small percentage chance of suffering a multi-million dollar judgment in court. This scenario assumes the officer survived the shooting, or more accurately, applied all his training to the situation, made the right decisions, and used his skill with his weapons to defend his life or the life of another. Many other officers lose their lives because the doubts and fears we train into them cause them to hesitate at the critical moment and lose the encounter.

We have in effect trained our officers to fail. This applies to citizens training for self defense as well, because much of the training taken by citizens is at the same schools police officers use. Indeed, at the local level, many of our police officer run side businesses and train locals in basic skills so they can qualify for concealed carry permits.
The fact that an officer is immediately removed from duty after a shooting, investigated while the media has a field day and his department offers non-committal statements until they see which way the legal/public opinion wind is blowing pounds the idea in the officer’s mind that he has done something wrong or heinous. The officer is taught that defending himself, doing the job he was hired to do, is bad. He is also taught that he should feel quite remorseful after the action, and due to that remorse require counseling. Those facts are also observed by his fellow officers. These activities set the officer up for a difficult future.

I understand the legal ramifications for a department and I know why officers are given days off after a critical incident such as a shooting. What I am arguing against is the passive and shameful mindset that accompanies a shooting. When an officer survives a shooting by employing his skills, he should be rewarded not taught to feel shame and fear of legal reprisal.
Likewise, a citizen who defends his family from an intruder at 3 a.m. has done a heroic thing, not something to be ashamed of. If you disagree with my stance here, ask yourself what you would say to a family member who shot an intruder: Would it be, “Oh my goodness, that is terrible, you must feel awful” or would it be, “Congratulations, your kids and family are safe and you did the right thing.” If you read this website, you might be one of the rare people to offer encouragement, but you also know what the majority of people would say.

My Experience
In my current position I face more violence than I did as a soldier or a police officer. I also face a less complicated legal environment, though I do occupy a gray area in terms of use of force in this country, and therefore have to worry about losing my job or suffering prosecution in local courts. I have been in several shootings here, some that would best be described as small battles. A few times I have been in one, and then in another later in the day. I am not given time off, counseling, or therapy, nor do I need it. The actions I have taken were proper and I do not lose a wink of sleep over it. Speaking to my police friends brought home these problems for me, because I heard repeated statements such as, “How do you deal with it, that must be very tough…etc.”

The work can be difficult, but I was hired because I am an armed professional, and I should not fall to pieces the first time I am required to demonstrate that professionalism. If I had fallen apart, my employer would have been right to fire me. I don’t suffer any mental anguish over my work, because I am a professional, understand my environment, and act properly. These lessons may seem far removed from your situation, but if you carry or own a weapon for protection, your outlook should be the same as mine. It does no good to survive a shooting, and then crumble afterward.

Societal Issues
Our society will not admit that it is proper to defend yourself or your family at the current time due to several factors in my opinion, but that does not make the desire to defend yourself and your family any less worthwhile or heroic. The United States has had an increasing standard of living for many years, and many people are generations removed from genuine life threatening hardship. This has resulted in a mental and physical softening of the general population. They have never been faced with life and death choices and cannot truly conceive that others have. It is also a fact that it takes large amounts of money to own media outlets and most people who have enough money to own or hold high positions in such media outlets reside in major cities. They live in a world even more insulated than most other Americans (already an insulated group as a whole), and they present their view of the world in their newspaper or on their television channel. Thus Americans see a skewed view of life in the media. I am not broaching the “liberal bias” issue here, simply saying that most of the people who own major media share certain life experiences and tend to represent those in the media. Those life experiences are not consistent with the way the majority of Americans live.

Issues You Should Consider
If you are involved in a shooting, whether as a police officer or a citizen, you should consider a few ideas. Be confident in yourself and your actions, but do not make broad statements to friends, the media, or peers until the legal situation is resolved. Don’t wear offensive or tasteless clothing (such as, “The only good criminal is a dead criminal,” or “Gun control means shooting with two hands”) either before or after the incident. While these things may seem funny, you will be tried in the court of public opinion as well as a court of law, and both may be done concurrently at times. You should not want your actions to appear lighthearted or frivolous about what you have done. The confidence you should have is not the kind to trumpet on a t-shirt or bumper sticker. You have protected yourself and/or your family and you should be proud and confident, but not to the point of your own detriment.
If you are a police officer, attend any training and or counseling your department requires. But do so with an air of quiet confidence, not shame or fear. If your department gives you several days off after the incident, don’t sit home and brood about the incident. Take your spouse and children out of town for a few days to a place you will all enjoy. Go to dinner and be your normal self. You will instill confidence in them by your actions, and they will learn valuable lessons about self defense and dignity from you. Conduct yourself as properly as you did during the incident, and be happy, because you are still alive and able to enjoy the ones you love.

We all have a right to a decent, safe life. When some thug tries to steal that right from us or someone we love, and we shoot him, we have not done a bad act, he has. We cannot change our society as a whole, at least not quickly, but we can change how we feel and view our own actions. Be proud of yourself and your decision to be responsible for your own life and continue holding your head high if you are forced to use your firearm to defend yourself or your family.

 

Letter Re: CONEX Containers (SAs: Retreat Storage, CONEXes, CHUs, )

Jim,
I’ve recently been shopping around for used sea containers [Continental Express or "CONEX" transoceanic shipping containers], primarily to replace the weathered sheds that came with our property. While I haven’t sold my wife on the idea yet, we have been looking at metal sheds, which are more expensive and much less durable. You can purchase sea containers for a fairly reasonable price (approximately $1500 for a 20’ unit). Naturally, I started thinking about other possible uses for them (shelter, fallout shelter, etc.), and wanted to see if you, or any other bloggers, had any experience with using them in the survival context. They’re weather tight, can be purchased insulated, and are steel. Seems like there must be some pretty interesting possibilities there. - P.H.

JWR Replies:  I agree that despite the recent price increases, CONEXes are still a bargain. Many thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines are billeted in converted CONEXes in Iraq.  These are called Containerized Housing Units (CHUs).  This consists of CONEX retrofitted with a door, window, top vent, power cabling, and an air conditioning unit.  These are pretty Spartan accommodations, but it sure beats living in a tent.

Just keep in mind that if you use a CONEX for above ground storage then a "spinner" vent should definitely be added to the roof . Why?  Because CONEXes tend to sweat inside.  (For the same reason, do not stack cardboard boxes directly against the interior walls.)

Don't count on a CONEX being truly secure storage if your retreat property is not continuously occupied. Welding on a shroud to protect a padlock from attack by bolt cutters is a good idea. But given enough time, a determined thief will just come back with a cutting torch.

Perhaps some SurvivalBlog readers will have some detailed suggestions for the various uses of CONEXes, or if any of you are deployed troops that are billeted in a CHU, please e-mail me with your comments!

 

Letter Re: STANO Components (SAs: Starlight Scopes, Night Vision Equipment)

Hello,
I am fairly new to the survival lifestyle and I'm still learning. I've been in the military and have been hunting and shooting since I was a small child, so I'm okay there. I'm interested in obtaining some night vision goggles for use after hurricanes (I live in southeast Louisiana) and for patrols if TEOTWAWKI occurs. One of my neighbors is way ahead of me and has actually done some business with you on Valmet parts, etc. He trusts you and I trust him, so I wanted to get your opinion on STANO Components. I assume that since they are a link on your website that you have personal experience with them and that they are a reputable company. However, in today's world, I feel it is necessary to confirm this. Would you please share with me your feelings and opinions regarding STANO Components? Thank You, - R.V. in Louisiana


JWR Replies: I only know of Al Glanze (who operates STANO Components, Inc., in Silver City, Nevada) by reputation. But what a great reputation! One of the SurvivalBlog readers featured in the Profiles section ("Mr. Tango"--a night vision expert) told me that he has bought nearly all of his night vision gear from STANO Components. He tells me that Al Glanze is extremely reputable, sells only top quality gear, and has a fantastic reputation for customer service. He mentioned that on several occasions Al was willing to let "Mr. Tango" hand pick image intensifier tubes based on "in the field" side-by-side nighttime tests. (Checking for subtle differences such as minimum scintillation--commonly called "the sparklies.") Virtually all of the U.S.-made scopes that STANO Components sells come with certified data sheets. (Stating the exact number of line pairs and other critical data.)

Beware that there is a lot of junk on the night vision market--especially Russian junk--with fake data sheets. Most of the rebuilt U.S.-made equipment one the market was put together on someone's kitchen table, often using image intensifier tubes of dubious quality with an unknown number of hours of operating time. But, in contrast, you can buy from STANO Components with confidence.

 

Letter From Argentina Re: Post-Collapse Political Turmoil, Health Care, and Gambling (SAs: Argentina, Politics, Health Care, Gambling)

Mr. Rawles.
I read your book and I found it both entertaining and full of information as many others did. I live Argentina, South America where things have been hard after the 2001 economical collapse we suffered. We changed five presidents in one week, if you can believe that, and well… we are struggling to get back on our feet, though it sometimes it seems that it’s impossible. "When it finally seems as if we hit bottom, someone starts to shovel."
I started reading your letters on Survivalblog.com and find them, again full of valuable insight. There are a couple of things that, in my most humble personal experience, might differ from what you estimate may happen after a crisis. Medical health companies, for example have made a lot of profit. This is because public health isn’t worth a penny, they are on strike most of the time and lack the most basic health implements like disposable needles, cotton, etc. People either have private health insurance or die like rats over here. As for the popularity of gambling and casinos, don’t ask me why please, I’m clueless, but it seems that the poorer the people, the more they gamble. Most poor neighborhoods, some that even lack tap water or gas service, places that don’t even have light, there you can find one big shiny Bingo in the middle of the place. Please excuse my English, its not as good as it should be. Just wanted to let you know how things developed over here, concerning those issues, thought you might find them interesting. I posted some general thoughts concerning urban survival at a place called frugalsquirrel.com under the name of FerFAL at the General Patriot Discussion forum: http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=044387;p=1

It’s just things I noticed, some stuff I do myself to get by, in this now-turned Third World country. Regards, - Fernando in Argentina

 


Jim's Quote of the Day:

I try to keep my daily quotes short, so forgive me for subjecting you to four stanzas. But that article from Jeff in Afghanistan reminded me of Kipling...

If, by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting;
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating;
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn out tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!


Friday, October 28, 2005

Note from JWR: Today we feature yet another entry for the SurvivalBlog writing contest. The prize is a transferable four day course certificate, good for any course at Front Sight. Be sure to enter your non-fiction articles via e-mail by the end of November to be considered for the contest.

The Micro-Farm Tractor, by "Fanderal" (SAs:  Survival Vehicles, Tractors, Rototillers, Gardening, Provisioning)

My goal, like so many of us, is to be able to pre-bugout, to a retreat I can live on full time. I dream of having a few acres out in the country where I can mostly support myself on what can be produced on my own land. When I first started to think about it, and plan for it, the first question of course is “How much land?” After getting past the obvious answer, “As much as possible”, came the more reasonable answer of: “enough to do accomplish my primary goal of optimal self-sufficiency.” After more study I came to realize that five or so acres is about all I could really work. Five acres, when worked intensively, will produce far more than a family of four can consume. This five acres would contain everything, House, Barn, a one to two acre garden, chickens, Rabbits, Goats, et cetera.

So having settled on five to seven acres, I turned to the issue of what tools, equipment, and other assets would be needed to make my micro-farm work. Beyond the usual hand tools. And shop tools, my research led me to study power equipment appropriate for the Micro-Farm. What I found was the Two-Wheel, or "Walk-behind" Tractor. A good example of the class is the BCS 852 with a 10 horsepower diesel engine. It has a single cylinder engine mounted in front of a trans axle. The Trans axle drives a pair of wheels that are from 3.5 to 6.5 inches wide, and 8 to 12 inches in diameter. It is also equipped with front and rear Power Takeoffs (PTOs) used to transfer power to a variety of implements. For me this is the optimum retreat utility tractor. To justify that statement I need to go into a bit more detail as to why. As with all things, this selection is based on my plans and intentions, but I believe that they are generic enough to qualify as a general solution for most people, but as always Your Mileage may Vary (YMMV).

The factors I am taking into consideration are:

Size of Farm.
Number of people available to work it.
Safety
Maintainability
Fuel availability/economy
Life expectancy under the projected load

The truth is most of us have not, or will not be able to acquire more than five to 10 acres of land. If you can get more, fine, get it; you can’t have too much land, but you can leave yourself short on other things by buying more land than you really need, or can work.
In most cases the garden will be run by just one or two people, either because of off farm employment or the kids may be grown and gone before you make the move. People that are already doing this will tell you that one to two acres, if worked as intensively as is reasonably possible is all one person can handle. If you have more land, then you have the option of bartering produce, for labor to work more acres. But I would still keep it in two-acre units.
The core concept of survivalism/preparedness is independence; you can’t be independent if you can’t do most, if not all the maintenance yourself. While yes, most anyone with any mechanical aptitude at all can work on most regular tractors, however they have four times as many cylinders, fuel injectors, and fuel lines, twice as many tires, use much more fuel, and mostly are too much tool for two to five acres.
When the world ends there will be NO more fuel deliveries from anywhere, and if there are then they will be prohibitively expensive. So you need a fuel that you can produce yourself, to me this means biodiesel. It’s a fuel you can make yourself; it will substitute directly into the tank with NO modifications to the engine, and gives almost exactly the same performance, as regular diesel.
So with these concepts in mind I started thinking about what the ideal tool would be. I eliminated most regular four wheeled tractors like the Ford 9N and the International Harvester (IH) Farmalls because to buy one of their modern counterparts new is very expensive, and to find parts for older ones that you can buy on the cheap can also be expensive. While there has been a lot of development in compact and subcompact tractors in the last few years, they are mostly compact technical wonders that have all kinds of computerized fuel injection systems, high volume, high pressure hydraulics, and just lots and lots of things that need to be maintained or fixed. Simplicity is crucial.
My search for information about small farm tractors, as with most things today, started online. I started from the position that a Walk-behind Tractor would be the optimum choice because on the surface it met two of the most important criteria, Fuel requirements, and maintainability. The MOST important question remained, how much land could be worked with it and still expect it to last a lifetime.

Dean M., one of my online sources, who has actually been running a Market Garden since 1989, says that much of that time was spent downsizing his garden to it’s current 1.5 acres. According to Dean,one to two acres is about all one person can work, when trying to maximize the production of a garden. The general consensus is, that the limit on how large a garden you could work with one of these machines,is really set by how much labor was available, rather than the capacity of the machine.
To answer that question I needed input from an expert. In my web search I found many companies that make and sell this kind of equipment, but they are almost ALL overseas. Of the domestic companies most only sell Walk-behinds as a sideline. I found a company in Owenton KY, which specializes in small-scale commercial agriculture equipment. Joel Dufour founded Earth Tools in 1977, and all they sell is Walk-behind tractors. .

I asked Mr. Dufour about the capability, capacity, and requirements of walk behind tractors for a TEOTWAWKI scenario. He recommended not the largest one he sells, the 948 but rather the model 852, which comes with an optional 10 hp diesel engine. He says the 852s are far more versatile than the 948. Based on what his customers are actually doing with the units, and have been doing for nearly 30 years he gave me the following information about capabilities, and requirements of these units.
You can work up to two acres of Market garden per person, and/or about 15 acres of Haying for livestock. With proper preventative maintenance, used in a commercial agricultural operation, a tractor like he sells will last 20+ years. They can haul up to one ton on a two-wheel trailer. Depending on the specific task, running 8 hrs on a gallon of fuel is possible. He has several customers that make their own biodiesel and run their 852s on it, and have reported no problems.

When it comes to maintenance requirement the diesel engines are designed for 5000 hours TBO (Time Between Overhauls), and are meant to be rebuilt twice before replacing crankshafts or connecting rods. That means that the engines have a 15,000 hr life span minimum (with proper maintenance). For routine maintenance they only use 1.5 quarts of oil per change, which needs to be done every 75 ours or annually--whichever comes first. The oil filter is cleanable and the air filter is replaceable. The conical clutch lasts 1000 – 2000 hrs, and can be replaced in less than 2 hrs. All maintenance, including overhauls can be done with regular hand tools, the only exception being one $25 tool for working on the transmission if it’s ever needed.

One point that Mr. Dufour thinks is undersold is safety. He pointed out that one of the most common fatal accidents on a farm is a tractor rollover. When operating one of these units on a slope, even if you were on the downhill side of the machine, and you couldn’t get out of the way, they only weight about 300 lbs, so it is very unlikely you would suffer a life threatening injury. Where as with even the smallest of standard tractors if it rolls over on you, death is the very likely outcome.

So let’s look at how these machines match my original requirements:
Size of Farm:
A 10 HP machine will work as much land as most of us will be able to get, and work, without being too big for the job.
Number of people available to work the land:
The constraint is number of people vs. planting/harvesting schedule; again it is well matched to the 5 to 15 acres, with which most of us will wind up.
Maintainability:
There is nothing that the owner can’t do on these machines, from routine maintenance to a complete overhaul, which would require more than basic mechanics hand tools, and one inexpensive specialty tool.
Safety: I don’t care how much the machine can do or how well it does it, the one thing that you absolutely cannot afford in the post-TEOTWAWKI world, is an injury. So the machine that is least likely to cause me harm is WAY up on my list
Fuel availability/economy:
These units can be had with Gas, or Diesel engines. Gas engines can be run on alcohol with modification. Diesel engines can be run on biodiesel without modification.
Life expectancy under the projected load:
You can work as much acreage as you have time and people to work without over working the tractor. They are truly an agricultural grade machines, not glorified Home duty units.
While I’m not trying to sell this particular tractor, however if we use its characteristics as a baseline then I think it is fare to say that a diesel Walk-behind Tractor would make an ideal vehicle for a Micro-farm. It is the core power unit for almost all farm tasks, can be adapted to do just about anything else that requires up to 10 HP; from electrical generation to pumping water, with the right connection to the PTO. It also meets or exceeds the core requirements that I laid out at the beginning. This is not to say that there might not be other machines that would also work, but if you are starting from scratch like most of us, then this is a good objective solution.
Related info:
http://www.earthtoolsbcs.com/
http://www.chelseagreen.com/1989/items/neworganicgrower
http://www.bcsshop.com/
http://www.adriatica-grifo.it/g/main.htm

JWR Adds: 
From the standpoint of a small acreage survival retreat, a walk-behind tiller/tractor makes a lot of sense. WTSHTF, fuel will be at a premium, so it is logical to get something that will give you maximum useful work with minimum fuel consumption. And as Fanderal mentioned, they will also minimize tractor rollover accidents. This is especially important at a retreat with a lot of newbies. (Just because you are accustomed to thinking "safety first" at all times doesn't mean that your recently-transplanted Big City friends and cousins will be!) 

If you need to cultivate significantly larger acreage, then a full-size tractor makes sense, but only of course with significantly more training and more voluminous fuel storage.  BTW, the new "crawler" (rubber tracked) tractors have a lower center of gravity that traditional wheeled tractors and hence are much less prone to rollovers.

I used a gas engine Troy-Bilt Horse tiller for several years and found it very reliable. The BCS products are made in Milan, Italy. At a list price of $3,799, these are not cheap.  But if you go with the principle of "buying something sturdy and reliable once, versus buying something flimsy, multiple times", then this sort of purchase makes sense. To get the most for your money, shop around for a slightly used, diesel-powered unit.

One other consideration: Tractors are noisy and can be heard from a long distance. Wear hearing protection whenever operator a tractor or tiller.  In a post-TEOTWAWKI survival situation, this may mean one individual wearing earmuffs operating the tractor, and another individual that is concealed 50 to 100 yards away, on dedicated security duty.  (Otherwise, operating noisy equipment like a tractor or chainsaw might be a noisy invitation to get bushwhacked.)

Here are some additional useful URLs:
http://www.earthtoolsbcs.com/html/bcs_tractor_specs.html
http://forums2.gardenweb.com/forums/load/tools/msg052243117706.html
http://www.groworganic.com/item_GT034_.html
http://www.wikco.com/bcsfeaturesg.html


Letter From "Dr. Buckaroo Banzai" Re: Pneumonia Risk--Time for Your Pneumovax? (SAs:  Emerging Threats, Disaster Preparedness, Asian Avian Flu, Inoculation, Pneumovax)

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I think the pneumovax is a good idea. However, there are simply no data to support your statement that "pneumonia co-infections are the biggest killer associated with the Asian Avian flu." Whether even a single victim of the current H5N1 avian flu in Asia has even developed pneumococcal pneumonia has not been reported. I doubt it. These people appear to be dying too quickly for that to be the problem. I think they are simply dying from viral pneumonia.

In 1918-1919 many flu victims died within 24-48 hours of becoming febrile. Those deaths certainly had nothing to do with pneumococcal pneumonia.

That being said, in ordinary flu epidemics, old and debilitated people do develop secondary bacterial pneumonia after their systems are further weakened by viral pneumonia with the flu. In many cases, these secondary pneumonias are caused by the pneumococcus.
So there is undoubtedly some utility in the pneumococcal vaccine. Remember, it only protects against 23 varieties of a single microorganism, the pneumococcus. As you can gather from its name, though, the pneumococcus is the poster child of bacterial pneumonia, and it certainly can and does kill.

Whether or not there will be a worldwide pandemic of H5N1 avian flu depends only on the virus -- if it has become or will become easily transmissible from human to human, there will be a pandemic, because it is antigenically novel and nobody has much if any immunity to it.

In the final analysis, the scope of the pandemic also depends only on the virus -- on its attack rate and case fatality rate. The attack rate means how many people in a population become infected --105 -- 25% -- 50% -- and the case fatality rate means how many of those people die. An attack rate of about 25% appears likely for a true flu pandemic. Currently the case fatality rate in Asia appears to be about 50%, but I think that is wildly over-estimated, since only the dead and dying are being counted, and there may be many milder cases that are going undiagnosed and unreported. A case-fatality rate of 0.5% to 1% would be typical of a bad flu, and a case fatality rate of 2% or 3% was usual in most communities in 1918-1919. Anything more than that, even 5%, would be devastating. Remember that some isolated communities were more susceptible, and wiped out, in 1918-1919. All the best, - "Dr. Buckaroo Banzai"

JWR Replies: Your point is well taken, Buckaroo. When I saw references to "pneumonia co-infections" I mistakenly assumed that they were mostly pneumococcal pneumonia infections. So I went back and did some more reading. I was mistaken.  Most of the pneumonia deaths were indeed due to H5N1 viral pneumonia--which of course Pneumovax 23 won't prevent.  But I'm glad to hear that you agree that it is a good thing to get a Pneumovax 23 inoculation, nonetheless.

 

Letter Re: Rokon Off-Road Motorcycles (SAs: Survival Vehicles, Motorcycles)

Dear Mr. Rawles:
Look forward to your blog everyday - keep up the great work! A question and suggestion for an article, from the point of view of those who must have a good bug-out plan....1. Got a source for a mechanical (as opposed to electronic) power out alarm? Under many scenarios the first warning of a Schumer / fan interface will be the power out (or confirmation that TS is REALLY HTF). Electronics are vulnerable to EMP, but a mechanical alarm could give you hours head start of TSHTF....2. Bug out vehicle. The first thing I thought after seeing the jam on the freeways out of Houston was - gee, a motorcycle could sure come in handy - less fuel needed, weave around stranded cars, drive on the grass or cross-country around roadblocks, etc., etc. Seriously looking at the Rokon TWO- wheel drive all-terrain motorbike as a BOV.  See: www.rokon.com
Pros
1. A motorcycle can weave around stranded cars, drive on the grass or cross-country around roadblocks, etc., etc.
2. In a Rokon, BOTH FRONT & BACK wheels get power - can go rugged places no other ATV or motorcycle can
3. can carry 1,000 lbs. and tow a trailer up to 3,000 lbs.!
4. Multi-purpose - a mini-tractor in power and accessories - many agricultural implements such as:
* Disc Harrow
* Log Skidder
* Moldboard Plow
* Lawn Mower
* Broadcast Spreader
* Power Take-Off Kit
* Agri-Sprayer,
5. 5 to 6 hours on one tank, plus alternate fuel storage in the hollow wheels (if wheels not used for gas, can float the bike to ford a river!)
6. extremely rugged, high ground clearance, fat wheels for traction, etc., etc.
Cons
--Less cargo capacity vs. a car or truck
-- Less protection for occupants versus a car or truck
-- Max 40 mph.
--"Ignition Electronic Magneto" in the engine - potential EMP problem?
How vulnerable would you rate this vehicle to EMP?
http://www.kohlerengines.com/common/resources/tp_2503_a.pdf  - "N." in Texas -

PS. I have no affiliation to Rokon, financial or otherwise, other than that I am a potential customer

JWR Replies: Your letter ties in nicely with today's article about tiller/tractors. "Sturdy, slow and low tech" maybe the order of the day, come TEOTWAWKI.

RE:  ...Got a source for a mechanical (as opposed to electronic) power out alarm?  That should be fairly easy to construct. These are probably already commercially made, but if there aren't;  Imagine a relay, (powered from AC to DC adapter) that is in the normally open position when current is available. When the AC power goes out, the relay trips to the closed position and activates a battery powered alarm--something piercing like a Mallory Sonalert. Alternatively, it could even trip something low tech like an old fashioned spring-powered alarm clock bell.

 

Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu (SAs: Emerging Threats, Disaster Preparedness, Asian Avian Flu)

Hi Jim,
Thanks for your excellent site. I read it every day but Sunday and enjoy most every article. However, while I believe it is important to be as prepared as possible for pandemics and every other kind of emergency, I'm convinced that the Avian "Bird" flu is contrived and a needless scare. Bill Sardi, on his excellent website, has numerous excellent articles, all well researched and documented, showing that this crisis is hysteria being fanned by government authorities (http://www.knowledgeofhealth.com/report.asp?story=Bird%20Flu%20Hysteria%20Fanned%20By%20Inaccurate%20News%20Reports.). I heartily recommend this site to all your readers. - G.M. in North Carolina

JWR Replies: There may be some exaggeration and hyperbole, but I do believe that the A.A. flu threat is real. Don't count on on anyone in government saving the day.  Make plans to provide for yourself. Make plans to hunker down in self-quarantine for an extended period, preferably in a lightly populated farming region.


Jim's Quote of the Day:

"You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind each blade of grass." - Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto


Thursday, October 27, 2005

Pneumonia Risk--Time for Your Pneumovax? (SAs:  Emerging Threats, Disaster Preparedness, Asian Avian Flu, Inoculation, Pneumovax)

With all of the recent conjecture about the possibility of an Asian Avian flu pandemic, the subject of pneumonia inoculations has come up. (Because pneumonia co-infections are the biggest killer associated with the Asian Avian flu. Most of those cases are viral, but some could be pneumococcal.)  Merck makes a widely used pneumonia vaccination called Pneumovax 23.  It is administered intramuscularly before exposure to pneumococci (streptococcus pneumoniae), and reportedly only rarely has adverse reactions. It will not prevent viral pneumonia, but at least it is effective at preventing 23 strains of pneumococcal pneumonias. The threat of Asian Avian flu mutating into a strain that easily transmissible by humans constitutes a novel threat. In this particular instance, I have come to the conclusion that it is worthwhile to have everyone in my family vaccinated with Pneumovax. [But Jim is always a worst case scenario kinda guy! - The Memsahib.]  I predict that if a readily transmissible strain does break out into a pandemic that there will be a huge rush for the relatively few available doses of Pneumovax. Give it some serious thought and prayer. If you feel convicted to get your family vaccinated, do not hesitate. Do so while Pneumovax is still readily available.

 

The Dreaded Pin Prick--Approaching a Housing Bubble Near You (SAs: Contrarian Investing, Real Estate, Relocation)

There are starting to be some clear indicators that the U.S. housing market bubble has reached its apex, though there are some that disagree. The signs of irrational exuberance are all to apparent. Witness, for example, the mad bidding wars for Miami condominiums that are being pre-sold, long before the ground has been broken at the construction sites. 

The housing markets have already headed south in much of the rest of the English speaking world.(Prices are already dropping in Australia and England.) But not yet in the United States. Today's housing market is the embodiment of "The Greater Fool Theory", on steroids. One of my compadres said this is like watching the equivalent of the Dutch Tulip Mania, in modern times.

Will the bubble gradually and gently deflate, or will pop with a resounding bang?  I'm not certain, but I'm betting on the latter.  This will most likely happen in the Spring of Aught Six, when the expected annual home buying season fails to materialize. There will be a collective "Ah-hah", as some home sellers begin to drop their prices. Buyers will sense a soft market, so they start putting in "low ball" bids.  The sellers will then get panicky and drop their prices even more, to "be certain of a quick sale." This downward ratcheting may very well turn into a outright snowballing effect as everyone with a spec house realizes that the music has stopped and their are precious few chairs in the room. Economist Dr. Gary North sagely opines that it is currently a good time to be a renter. If you have a vacation home, a house that you rent out, or any houses that you've bought on speculation, I then I strongly recommend that you sell them, ASAP!  If the decline is as great as I anticipate--perhaps as much as 70% in the most overpriced regions--then it may take ten years for house prices to return to their 2005 levels.  If you are planning to move within the next four or five years, then you might consider selling your house to a property management and renting it back. This may sound crazy, but as early as next June you may be congratulating yourself for your foresight.

As I mentioned back in a post on August 20, 2005, the popular "Mr. Housing Bubble" T-shirt sums up the current situation nicely.

 

Letter Re: On Gold, Silver, and Barter (SAs: Contrarian Investing , Barter, Silver, Gold, Pre-1965 Coinage, Formulas, Metals Purity Standards)

James:
First of all, I want to say thank you for putting so much effort in to an active blog on this subject. I try to read daily, and I always play catch-up once a week. I know it takes a TON of work to keep something like this alive and post as much each day as you do, so again, thanks. I was moderately concerned for the first time reading your blog this past week in regards to the post on Gold and Silver Barter. In there you referred to the American public as having "been robbed". My concern is that this is one of the few places where survivalists get the bad rap of being crazy. I want to point out something: whether it's gold, a paper dollar, or a rock, the value of whatever item is determined by faith, not intrinsic value. Gold is only valuable to us because we decided that shiny stuff was so important that we were willing to trade long, hard days of work for a little bit of it. At one point in our nation's past we limited the currency in the market to be equal to the value of the gold the US Treasury has on hand - but there was a problem. By the 1950s, during our rebuilding of the country post-WWII, there was so much growth going on that we actually were outpacing the availability of gold in the market. We were slowly stifling our own economy because we could not produce more goods and services that there was physical gold in the market. Finally, common sense prevailed when we realized something: The American public did not need gold, they needed dollars. They can not use gold in the grocery, the feed store, or the mall. Dollars they can use. People have more faith in the dollar than they do in the ounce of gold. Let the economy grow! To imply that we have been fooled is to imply conspiracy and breeds distrust. We may differ here, but I believe that is completely possible to work within the system until there is no system. When there is no system, I will be beside the other readers here making the best of the barter system. Until then, I will happily use my U.S. Dollars to purchase those items, never once believing I have been duped. To summarize, whether it is gold, paper currency, diamond, or potato - the value of any item is what we're willing to trade in labor or tangibles to obtain it. The U.S. Dollar's value is not, and should not be based on our perceived value of gold, since gold has no value of its own other than what we assign it. Gather your junk silver and gold for WTSHTF, but don't believe in it more than the dollar. Oh, and don't worry about the feds coming to take away your gold - since we're not on the gold standard then they don't need it. - L.C.


JWR Replies: I really appreciate you taking the time to articulate your opinion because I'm sure that there are many other people that feel the same way. But I do beg to differ. We have been robbed. When the Federal government decreed that our 90% silver coins in circulation be replaced with essentially worthless copper tokens (worth perhaps 2% of what a silver is worth, in terms of their metals content) it was both a violation of the public trust and a violation of the Constitution. (Article I, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution states, "No State shall make any Thing but Gold and Silver Coin a tender in payment of debt.") It is no wonder that the pre-1965 coinage vanished from circulation in less than two years after the switch. Gresham's Law is inescapable: "Bad money drives out good."

By law, a pre-1965 dollar was convertible into real silver coinage. In contrast, a post-1964 Federal Reserve Note (FRN) "dollar" is merely an non-convertible "I Owe You Nothing" certificate. Whenever I get handed handed FRNs, I convert most of them into tangibles as quickly as possible.  Someday, probably within the next ten years, there will be a dollar crisis.  At the far end of that crisis, I predict that the dollar will revert to close to its real value. (Essentially, nothing.)

And, re:  "...there was so much growth going on that we actually were outpacing the availability of gold in the market..."  That is hogwash invented by Keynesian economists. If the free market were allowed to exist, then we would have had a free-floating currency, still backed by gold and silver.  (The "bi-metallic" system.) A convertible, metals-backed currency acts as a natural check on the growth of government, not the economy. It is no coincidence that the Federal debt exploded after we went off the gold standard.  With an unbacked currency, there is no limit to a government spending like a drunken sailor.  (BTW: I mean no offense to drunken sailors. In my experience they act much more responsibly than governments.)

And, re: "...gold has no value of its own other than what we assign it."  You make it sound as if gold is just a pretty rock ("shiny stuff") that has arbitrarily been assigned a high value.  But gold's high value is due in part because of its unique intrinsic properties. Gold is the most malleable and ductile metal known; (a single ounce can be beaten into a sheet that is 300 square feet). Heat, moisture, oxygen, and most corrosive agents have very little chemical effect on gold. (Gold coins recovered from 3,000 year old shipwrecks come up from the bottom of the ocean looking bright and shiny.) Because of its high electrical conductivity and resistance to corrosion and other desirable combinations of physical and chemical properties, gold is an essential industrial metal. Since it is a good reflector of both infrared and visible light, it is used for the protective coatings on many artificial satellites.Gold coating enables biological material to be viewed under a scanning electron microscope.Gold alloys are used as a catalyst in organic chemistry, as a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, cancer treatments, and restorative dentistry.The resistance to oxidation of gold has led to its widespread use as thin layers electroplated on the surface of electrical connectors to ensure a good connection. Gold performs critical functions in computers, communications equipment, spacecraft, jet aircraft engines, and a host of other products.
(Source of information for the preceding paragraph: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold )


Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Are you going to tell the soldier to shoot the soccer mom trying to get her kids out of the city in her minivan?" - Ed Richards, a Louisiana State University law professor, on using the military to enforce quarantines, as quoted at GovExec.com


Wednesday, October 26, 2005

On MREs and Their Shelf Life (SAs:  MREs, Food Storage, Food Shelf Life, Provisioning, Vitamins)

I'm often asked how long the U.S. Military "Meal Ready to Eat" (MRE) rations can be stored. SurvivalBlog reader "Mr. Tango" (BTW, don't miss reading his fascinating profile) had a round of correspondence with the U.S. Army's Natick Laboratories in Massachusetts, on the potential storage life of MREs. The data that they sent him was surprising! Here is the gist of it:

Degrees, Fahrenheit Months of Storage (Years)
120 1 month
110 5 months
100 22 months (1.8 years)
90 55 months  (4.6 years)
80 76 months  (6.3 years)
70 100 months  (8.3 years)
60 130 months  (10.8 years) -- See Note 3, below

Note 1: Figures above are based on date of pack, rather than inspection date.

Note 2: MREs near the end of their shelf life are considered safe to eat if:
   A.) They are palatable to the taste.
   B.) They do not show any signs of spoilage (such as swelled pouches.)
   C.) They have been stored at moderate temperatures. (70 degrees F or below.)

Note 3: Not enough data has yet been collected on storage below 60 degrees F. However projections are that the 130 month figure will be extended.

Note 4: Time and temperature have a cumulative effect. For example: storage at 100 degrees F for 11 months and then moved to 70 degrees F, you would lose one half of the 70 F storage life.

Note 5: Avoid fluctuating temperatures in and out of freezing level.

Jim's Comments: As with other storage foods, heat kills the shelf life of MREs in a hurry. So if you keep some "just in case" MREs in the trunk of your car, be sure to rotate them frequently. (Make sure that it is those MREs that you use for your hikes or hunting/camping/backpacking trips. For any large quantities of MREs that you intend to keep more than a year, be sure to store them in the coolest part of your house. The same applies to all of your other storage foods. The differential in temperature between the top shelf and the bottom shelf in your pantry room can be considerable. Reserve those upper shelves for heat-insensitive items like bottled water, salt, and paper products!)

The above cited figures are for palatability, not nutritive value. You should plan to supplement with a good quality double encapsulated multi-vitamin (such as VitaVim brand), good quality B-complex tablets, and 500 MG Vitamin C tablets. Vitamins should be stored in a cool, dark place for best shelf life. (Many tablets are light sensitive.) I recommend rotating your multi-vitamins and Vitamin C every 24 months, and the Vitamin B every 18 months. Remember that most of the fat, carbohydrates, and protein will still be available in MREs, even after many years of storage, but the vitamins won't. Plan accordingly.

Because MREs and other emergency foods are relatively high in bulk and low in fiber, this could lead to digestive problems. Therefore, I also highly recommend storing a bulk fiber supplement such as Metamucil with each case of MREs. Don't overlook this precaution!

In summary, I consider MREs a good short term/tactical food. For more info, including equivalents made for the armed forces of other nations, see: http://www.mreinfo.com. They are ideal to keep in your "Get Out of Dodge" (G.O.O.D.) packs.  However, they are very expensive, per meal.  The majority of your storage food dollars should be spent on bulk storage foods. Most of those should be purchased be in #10 cans and 5 gallon food grade storage buckets. Bulk storage foods are available from a number of vendors including:

Freeze Dry Guy
JRH Enterprises
Ready Made Resources
Safe Castle
Survival Enterprises
Walton Seed.
Live Oak Farms
AlpineAire Foods
Best Prices Inc. Storable Foods of Texas


MSG, By Any Other Name (SAs: Food Additives, MSG, Provisioning, Nutrition)

The food additive monosodium glutamate (MSG) is now used in an alarmingly wide variety of processed foods. MSG has a bad reputation for more than just inducing "Chinese food headache."  IMHO, it is nasty stuff and should be avoided.  But that is difficult these days because food processors hide it by applying umpteen clever nom de guerres.  These can include:

Autolyzed yeast,
Barley malt,
Broth,
Bouillon,
Calcium caseinate,
Carrageen or carrageenan,
Enzyme modified,
Fermented,
Flavoring,
Natural flavoring,
Gelatin,
Glutamates,
Hydrolyzed oat flour,
Hydrolyzed protein,
Hydrolyzed vegetable,
Malt extract,
Maltodextrin,
Natural flavors,
Pectin,
Plant protein extract or extracts,
Potassium glutamate,
Protein fortified,
Protein isolates,
Sodium caseinate,
Soy protein or soy protein isolates
Soy sauce,
Stock,
Teriyaki sauce,
Textured protein,
TVP,
Ultra pasteurized,
Whey protein,
Yeast extract,
Yeast food.

(Special thanks to the authors of  The Carbohydrate Addicts' Official FAQ on Monosodium Glutamate. See: http://www.carbohydrateaddicts.com/msg.html )

I don't go so far as to recommend that you go on a MSG "witch hunt" in your pantry.  Rather, just be more aware and look at labels carefully whenever you are re-stocking.

Reader Product Review:  Wiggy's Hunter Sleeping Bag (SA: Field Gear, Sleeping Bags)

Jim,
This past Thursday thru Saturday was spent by me and a like minded, survival oriented friend in the mountains doing a cold weather shakedown. We headed up to the mountains, and did some primitive camping out in the middle of Bigfoot country at about 3,500 feet. This was a well scouted area, and I had found that nobody in at least the last year had been in the area but me. One of the items that we "shook-down" was my Wiggy's Hunter. When I opened the box that it came in, I could see right off that it appeared to be one of the best put together products I had seen in a long time. It just seemed to shout "QUAILITY!" It is a 0 degree bag, so I knew it should have no problems with 20 degree nighttime temps that we expected. (And from what I've heard it probably would have little problem with temps below 0 degrees.) The temps did indeed get down into the 20s, but I slept very warm and comfortable in my Wiggy's bag. I just wished it would have gotten even colder, to give it a real test. But I feel that considering how warm I slept this time, as opposed to just about freezing to death with my old bag, (in temps that were even warmer) that the Wiggy's Hunter will not let me down even to temps below zero. Also the [compression] stuff sack (that for an extra 20 FRNs comes with it) is really nice, and worth every penny. Thanks for turning me and no doubt many others on to Wiggy's via your book Patriots, and the ad that now runs on your site. Also I must highly recommend expedition weight polypropylene (PolyPro) Long Johns. They really made sitting around the campfire after the sun went down a pleasure. Sincerely, - Gung-Ho

 

Odds 'n Sods:

A reader alerted me that the manufacturer of Gamma Seal Lids (those nifty screw top lids that fit on standard 3 to 7 gallon food storage buckets) are now available directly from the manufacturer at very reasonable prices if bought in quantity.  See: http://www.gammaseals.com.

___

In a recent phone conversation, the gent who was the basis for the "Roger Dunlap" character in my novel Patriots mentioned: "In inflation-adjusted dollars, gold's $850+ per ounce peak back in 1979 would be the equivalent of about $1,550 per ounce today."  Despite the price increases since 2001, gold is still dirt cheap. He recommends taking advantage of the still low price and stocking up before it zooms up past $500 per ounce.  And silver, he said, is "an even better buy.  Gold may double or triple in the next two years. But silver is likely go way up--five or ten times its current price!"  Both he and I strongly recommend: Buy silver! To make it a real survival asset, buy physical silver--not mining stocks--and take personal possession. Keep it at home, well hidden.  (Get creative and construct yourself a hidden wall cache.) Silver in a vault under the Paradeplatz in Zurich will do you no good when you need it to barter for groceries.  Ditto for silver or gold in a safe deposit box at your local bank. In the event of a monetary crisis you can count on bank "holidays." And, if and when the banks do re-open, you can expect a government busybody with a clipboard to be standing there when you access your deposit box.

___

See www.freebuck.com  for an inflation calculator that will help you appreciate inflation's long term effects.

___

Dr. Geri Guidetti of The Ark Institute recommends the book Country Wisdom & Know-How: A Practical Guide to Living off the Land (By the editors of Storey Publishing's Country Wisdom Bulletins.)  A copy of this book should be on your bookshelf, right next to your copy of  Carla Emery's Encyclopedia of Country Living.  See:  http://www.arkinstitute.com/bookstore.htm

 


Jim's Quote of the Day:

"A pandemic is going to be a catastrophic nightmare. What we're going to be doing is trying to make it less of a nightmare." - Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, on preparations for a possible bird-flu pandemic, as recently quoted in GovExec.com.


Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Note from JWR: I encourage you to continue to spread the news about SurvivalBlog. Our readership is growing fast, but there are still millions out there with web access who have never heard of it. A brief e-mail to your like-minded friends or mention of SurvivalBlog when calling in to talk radio shows would be greatly appreciated! Every friend that you help motivate to get prepared represents one less person that you'll find sheepishly begging on your doorstep, come TEOTWAWKI+1. Instead of being part of the problem, they'll be part of the solution.

From The Memsahib: Asian Avian Flu and the Home Poultry Flock (SAs: Emerging Threats, Disaster Preparedness, Asian Avian Flu, Poultry)

Here at the Rawles Ranch the chicken-loving Memsahib couldn't help but be dismayed when her DH suggested the immediate sale of her sizable flock of terribly cute and tame chickens.  So off to the internet in search of answers...

Wild birds can be the carriers of Avian Flu to domestic chickens and turkeys.  Bird flu can be spread from country to country by migratory birds.  Waterfowl can carry avian flu without clinical signs of infection. With that said, how can any government in the world keep the Avian Flu from reaching their shores? To prevent Avian Flu infecting your home poultry flock, your fowl must be protected from coming into contact with the saliva, respiratory secretions and feces of wild birds.  Furthermore you must prevent wild bird saliva, secretions, and feces from contaminating the food and water of your poultry flock, or contaminating your poultry equipment. This means here at the Rawles Ranch, letting the chickens have free range is a thing of the past. We have to redo our chicken housing too.  First, the poultry wire will be replaced with much smaller mesh so that small wild birds can't enter the pens. Next, all parts of the pens will have solid tops so that if wild birds do perch on the top their feces cannot drop into the pen.   

It appears that all humans who contracted Avian Flu had direct contact with live birds.  Transmission occurs when human breathe in droplets of secretions or dried feces of infected birds.  There is no evidence that suggests the virus is transmitted by consuming poultry products.  Reducing your exposure to the birds' secretions make sense.  How about nest boxes with doors to the outside so that you can collect eggs without entering the coop?  How about food hoppers and waterers that can be filled from outside the coop?  (But make sure they are covered and that wild birds can't contaminate them.)  What about keeping the chickens in raised pens and letting their feces drop below into bins with earthworms to compost it ? 

To be frank, not being able to let my chickens free range spoils it for me. I built my flock up to about 30 laying hens, so that I would have plenty of eggs to share. The cost of the extra feed was offset by their ability to free range for grasshoppers and other chicken treats in the pasture.  But if all of the feed has to be store bought, then the feed costs really start adding up in a hurry, not to mention taking up storage space!  So in the end it seems more logical to cut the flock waaaay back to just enough laying hens to provided eggs for family use and to put up more storage food for people instead of chickens.  That's too bad, because I really enjoy the pastoral picture of my contented chicken catching bugs in the barnyard.



Just What is ‘Survivalism’ Anyway?  -- By "Warhawke" (SAs: Survival Mindset, Disaster Preparedness)

This question causes a lot of confusion for people who are new to survivalist movement. The mass-media has always portrayed people in the survivalist movement as paranoid nuts. Either they show us as racist killers waiting for the day when the ‘mud-people’ can be put in their place, or religious freaks praying for the end of the world, or cold-war nut cases who think the Russians are coming to steal their women and rape their cattle. In truth, the run-of-the-mill survivalist got his start as an average person with an average job who simply looked around and didn’t like what he saw.
Survivalists are just people who know that civilization is millions of people we don’t know, getting up every day and going to work at jobs we never knew existed. If a large portion of those people cannot do their jobs, you and I will not receive the benefit of their work and we, in turn, will not be able to do our jobs and therefore others will not receive the goods or services that we provide. Pretty soon all that you, or anybody else, will have are those things that you can provide for yourself, and how much is that?
Think about that for a moment, how many times in your life have you been faced with a situation where the normal mechanisms of civilized society--things like electricity, water, heat, shelter, food distribution, transportation, etc.--have been unavailable to you? Maybe it was a snowstorm that knocked out power, or a water main break in your neighborhood, or the aftermath of a tornado, hurricane, or earthquake. Most people have experienced some kind of failure for at least a few hours. Well imagine a situation where these things are gone for months, or years, perhaps even the rest of your life. Survivalists, seeing the teetering economy of the 1970s, the threat of nuclear warfare and all the other threats to our civilization, realized that they might soon be faced with just such a situation and acted to protect their lives and families.
The problem was that in the late 1970s and early 1980s, a lot of people, both in the media and in government, began to worry that survivalism was becoming too popular. You see, people who are self-sufficient make much of the government irrelevant, at least in regards to their own lives. A person who has the ability to supply his or her own basic needs, like food, water, shelter, etc. has no need to demand that the government “do something” for them. The government, on the other hand, needs people to require its services. Let’s face it, if nobody needs disaster relief, why should the government keep FEMA around? If everybody took care of their own retirement needs, where would Social Security be? Welfare, job training, food stamps, Medicare, and a hundred other programs are justified by the helplessness of many people in the face of adversity, therefore, if we are not helpless these programs would disappear (along with the taxes needed to fund them). The media, being overwhelmingly in support of such programs, also saw the danger posed by people asserting their independence.
So the media sought out the fringe element within the survivalist movement. Story after story showed the racists, the religious fanatics, the nuts who said the government was controlled by little gray aliens, and the guys who were just flatly incoherent on the subject. After years of such stories blanketing the broadcast and print media, few people wanted to be connected with the term survivalist, except for the aforementioned nuts. So the visible movement faded away. People like me didn’t stop being survivalists, we just stopped calling ourselves that.
In the early 1990s, there was a brief resurgence in the movement, only this time it was the so-called Militias who assumed the mantel, and their emphasis was not on surviving the collapse of civilization, but rather on preparing to fight what they saw as a government out of control. Instead of stockpiling food and medicine, they stockpiled guns and ammunition. Instead of wanting to retreat from danger, the militias wanted to raise the bloody flag of revolution, or at least that is what we were told. Of course the similarities between the two movements were more apparent than real, but the media once again latched on and wouldn’t let go. The Oklahoma City bombing knocked back the militia movement to a great extent, and the survivalist label was even less appropriate when applied to many of the remnants.
Then we come to 9/11 and the Anthrax attacks. In hours, people who had never before considered survivalist preparations were burning up their credit cards buying gas masks, prepared food, bottled water, firearms, and anything else that joyous salesclerks could think of. Stockbrokers were putting bug-out-bags in their Porsches, CEOs were stocking vacation homes with freeze-dried food, and collage professors were picking out shotguns and learning all about the restrictions that gun owners had complained about for years. Why? Because, like most Americans, they had always assumed that America was invulnerable. The assumption was that the CIA, the FBI, the State Department, the Army, Navy, Marines, and Air Force would always prevent any attack on the U.S. Suddenly they were shown just how disastrously incorrect that idea was.
The Twin Towers were more that just buildings, they were symbols of what we believed America was. They were American power stretching far above the world and overshadowing everyone else. They were American science and technology pointing toward the sky and reaching for the stars. They were America’s gateways, like the pillars of some great temple, leading to the mightiest nation on earth. And in the space of hours, they were nothing more than dust and rubble and twisted debris. No less symbolic was the destruction we saw at the Pentagon. Its architecture suggesting a mighty fortress, it has, since its construction in the Second World War, become the symbol of American military might. Seeing that building, belching smoke, with debris scattered before it, seeing the bodies of dead and wounded American service men and women being carried away. Watching, while part of America’s foremost citadel crumbled before us, said something to America, it said that there is no one to defend us.
Perhaps the most psychologically damaging events were the Anthrax letters. We might gripe and moan about the postal service, we might make fun of the mailman, but we still see those words: “Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds.”
Many of us remember when the coming of the mailman was a special event, and opening the mailbox was like a birthday that came six days a week, because you never knew what kind of surprise would be inside. Sure, it lost part of its glow when we discovered that most of what he brought was bills and junk, but deep inside of us we were still that little kid who bounced up and down in front of the window when we saw that gray uniform coming down the street. Then, to our horror we saw that uniform as a threat, a gray specter that might be bearing a cargo of powdered death to our door.
On that day Survivalism was reborn, most won’t call it that, the legacy of the media image still lingers, but that is what it is. Too many of our symbols have been trashed for us to ignore the truth anymore. We are vulnerable to any number of attacks and no government can protect us. Oh sure the Feds might bust 99 out of 100 of the bad guys, but when the one that gets away is packin’ a nuke or a few pounds of  The Plague, how much difference does it make? Let us not be so eager to lay those Cold War fears to rest either. Russia is still pointing a few thousand nuclear weapons at us, while the Peoples Republic of China is building more nukes, more missiles, more weapons period, and China has never been shy about going to war in her own interests. Adding in the regional powers like Iran and North Korea, both of whom have chemical weapons, probably biological weapons, and are working day and night on nuclear weapons as well as the means to deliver them, not only against their neighbors but anywhere in the world, just how much less likely is such an attack today, as compared to twenty years ago?
Many people have begun to understand they are now threatened, not merely in the abstract, but on a very personal level. Now they feel the need to take command of their lives. They see now that freedom means being responsible for their lives, and the lives of their children. The day when they could afford to assume that someone else would make sure that they were safe and protected are gone. The idea that they may find themselves stranded somewhere, alone, hungry, in need of water, food, and shelter is no longer inconceivable. Looking into the dust of the Trade Center towers has finally given them a frame of reference for the end of the system which has kept them safe their whole lives, and they now understand that, in the end, only they can help themselves, and that is the essence of Survivalism.
You WILL survive the end of the world... Probably...
This is the dirty little secret that your parents (and government) never told you. In all but a very few of the scenarios for an end-of-civilization disaster, the majority of the human race will survive the first twenty-four hours. If, for instance, a medium-sized asteroid were to hit the Pacific Ocean, it would probably kill a billion people the first day, but that would leave five billion of us alive. That is more than the population of the earth in 1970. So, unless you live on the west coast, or near an earthquake zone, or volcanically active area, you have pretty good odds of making it through that first day. The same goes for Nuclear War, caldera volcano explosion, socioeconomic collapse, or any of the other major disasters which could wipe out our civilization.
Once you realize that the odds of surviving that first day are actually stacked in your favor, you begin to realize that the event itself is less critical to your survival than the loss of essential services which will follow the disaster. So the question of whether or not you and your loved ones will live to see old-age depends on your ability to provide the essentials of life for yourselves. This goes double for the less earth-shattering disasters which people face on a much more frequent basis, things like earthquakes, tornados, tsunami, flood, famine, epidemic, war, riot, and blizzard. Because if you look at the statistics of past disasters you find that more people end up homeless and destitute than dead, and that many of the people who do die do so because they were unable to help themselves after the event.
Now you might say, “If something bad were to happen, somebody will be there to help me. The government, the Red Cross, or somebody, won’t they?” The answer is a definite maybe, and that is the problem. In the event of a local or regional disaster like a earthquake or hurricane, the usual mechanisms of disaster-relief will undoubtedly be available, but when? How long will it be before someone comes along to provide you and your family with food and water? One day? Two? Ten? Longer? Do you really want to sit quietly, waiting for someone else to provide for you?
We in the west, especially in America, have become used to the idea that someone will always be there for us. For too long we have sat in front of the television and watched while others have rushed to aid the victims of disaster. We have reached a point where most people think that they can ignore the possibility of disaster because the idea of disaster-relief has become a law of nature to their minds. The problem is that our ability to render aid to the victims is limited. We have seen our resources stretched to the limit before both in the case of the Northridge earthquake and hurricane Andrew our disaster relief systems were strained to the limit. Reports of people waiting days for help were not uncommon.
If a truly huge disaster were to strike, say the Yellowstone caldera volcano exploding, FEMA and the Red Cross would be swamped, and then where will you be? Look at the people of New Orleans, did help reach them in time? Was the help they received enough?

WHY?

This is THE question that every survivalist has asked and been asked more that any other, and for most it is the hardest one to answer. The question usually goes something like this: “Why would you want to survive when everyone you know is dead?” Or perhaps, “What is the point of living after everything has been destroyed?”

Boy if I had a nickel... The problem with this question is not what it asks, but rather what it says about the questioner. I mean, look at what these questions really mean, life after some cataclysm will be really tough and you won’t have people to help you, so why not just die and get it over with?
For myself, I could never internalize this kind of question. I thought it went without saying that one should want to live, despite whatever hardships or difficulties we may face in life. To say otherwise is to say that we do not deserve to live now, much less after our society collapses. Hell, why should we want to live in the face of any adversity? Would it not simply be easier to die than to face the slings and arrows that life throws our way? Why go on at all, when death is so much easier? The idea that I should simply decide to pack it in because I might not have the fruits of civilization at my fingertips seems as ridiculous as blowing my brains out over a hangnail.
The answer to ‘Why?’ is very simple: “Because I’m worth it!” I am worthy of life! If the world must be rebuilt, then no better man exists to carry out that task than myself! Sound egotistical? So what? I am not a man to grovel, and beg the world’s forgiveness for living. Neither should you.
In our society, too many people have succumbed to the idea that we must apologize for what we have and who we are. The idea that being raised as a child of western civilization is some form of crime, that our existence is an affront to the rest of humanity, and that only by debasing ourselves and giving up what he have for the “Less Fortunate” can we atone for the transgression of existing. Bunk! The conditions of my birth were beyond my control, thus they are no sin of mine. The actions of my ancestors were none of my doing, thus they place no burden on me (beyond ensuring that I don’t commit the same injustices myself). The condition of the world was not brought about by me, so why should I be asked to correct it? My life is what I control, and while I do not seek it injure anyone by my actions, no man may ask that I ease his burdens by assuming them. Forget the guilt they hand you my friend, it is not yours. Forget the things that others define you by, their standards are unworthy of you.
You must learn to define yourself according to your own standards of value, not the shoddy standards of others. Look at the world we live in, this is the world the people who will revile you have made. Is this the world you want? Is this a world you want your children to live in? Is this the image of what you will seek to rebuild, if rebuild you must? You must decide who and what you are, to do otherwise is to be nothing but a slave to the person who you allow to define you.
You must decide what your life is going to be about, and then you must act to bring that purpose to fruition. You must do that which you know to be right and you must reject what you know to be wrong. When you have made your decision, when you act to enforce that decision, when you discover who and what you are, then you will truly be free, and only a free man is worthy to live, instead of simply existing.
A human being is unique in all the known universe (at least for the moment), as we are the only creatures that exist in the future. Only we can conceive of the world as it will be tomorrow, or centuries after our death. No other animal plans for a time beyond the moment, this moment, only man can look beyond the eternal now. What do you look for? Do you look for a day when you will walk on the face of Mars and stare at a sky no man has ever seen? Do you work for a day when your children or your children’s children will fly among the stars? I do.
Survivalism is a path, a way of life that leads to our future. What will your future be? Will it be a future where you drift aimlessly, moving from this moment to that, praying that nothing happens? Will you live your life, hoping that God and the government will keep the world at bay, ensuring that you will have all that you need in life? I won’t.
Many people accuse me of wishing for death and destruction, of expecting only doom and gloom. Well my friends, they could not be more wrong. I am the one who carries in his heart the hope of the world. I am one who look’s at the future with optimism, because I know that, come what may, I WILL survive. I WILL carry on, I WILL ensure the survival of those I care for. I can do no less, because my love of the world and my family demands no less, what about yours?
Our society is not simply dying, it is already dead. The motor of our world has stopped and the movement we see is nothing more than momentum. Soon, one of two things will happen, we will either build a new motor, we will find a new purpose and begin a new journey towards the future, or our wheels will finally stop. Whichever happens, the future will not be decided by the looters or the animals in human shape, it will be decided by the human beings. Whether the rebuilding of our world is a physical reconstruction in the rubble of the past, or a reconstruction of the spirit which carved nations from the wilderness, it is you who must do it. When you make a commitment to survivalism, you are not giving in to doom and gloom, you are refusing to do so. The fools who spend their days trying to ignore the passage of time, who waste their days marking time at a job they hate, wasting time in pursuit of “Entertainment,” or escape reality with chemicals, they are the ones who hate life, not you. The essence of life is to experience it, not to ignore it. The essence of survival is to LIVE, not just to exist. The survivalist strives to create and maintain his or her life, and the lives of their children at the level of civilized human beings, not in the moment to moment existence of animals.
The popular stories of a post-apocalyptic world show the brutal human animals, raping and pillaging those weaker than they, and there may be an element of truth in this. Good people are less fit to live in a world ruled by brute force. Not because of a lack of intelligence or know-how, but simply because good people have no need to take by violence, that which they may gain by work and trade. The stupid, the criminal, the brutes of the world have nothing to trade, no work to perform, they have nothing but their strength. The survivalist must also find strength, strength of mind, strength of character, and strength of will. The human animals are dangerous, but so are bears, or mountain lions, but none is as dangerous as a trained human mind.
You, who are reading this, who simply wish to provide for yourself and your family, you are worthy of life. You are a person fit to help rebuild the world, and to make the new one better than the old. You are HUMAN, and I know of no greater creature in all the universe. Now you simply need to convince yourself of it. You need to know, not feel, not wish, not hope or believe, but know that this is true. You are better than the animals who threaten us all, and who seek to live at our expense, you are worth more than all of them put together. Because you can help to put the world back together, while all they can do is destroy the work of their betters.

 

Letter Re: Investing in Tangibles vs. an IRA Account (SAs: Contrarian Investing, Alpha Strategy, Food Storage, Disaster Preparedness)

Hi Jim,
I have been a big fan of yours for several years since I read your book [Patriots]! I was very excited to find your blog (via Claire Wolfe's blog) and have been reading it and recommending it since day four.

My husband and I have been busy socking money away into retirement accounts to prepare for the future but after listening to your interview with Geri Guidetti we decided to take the money we were putting away in Roth IRAs and spend it instead on survival preparations. There are several reasons for this decision:

1) Roth IRA money is after tax money so you will have already paid tax on it.
2) Roth IRA earnings are supposedly non taxable when withdrawn but that law can be changed by Congress at any time.
3) Everything that we are buying would cost more in the future simply due to inflation or scarcity.

We are very fortunate to own my husband's grandparents' old homestead outside of Livingston, Montana. In the last year we have put in a modular (with a wood stove) and a well in preparation for our retirement. Now we have a year of storage food and a grain mill and enough medicines, vitamins, toothpaste, toilet paper, etc. to last us several years. We are living and working in Nevada (a non-income tax state) and buying most of our provisions in Montana (a non sales tax state), except for the foods, which we bought on our way through Idaho, at Walton Feeds.

The point I wanted to make is that if people are saving for their retirement in any traditional accounts: IRAs, 401(k)s, etc., it might be a source of money to instead put it into beans, bullets, and band-aids or as you have said "tangibles." At least Congress can't take those away from you by changing a law! Thanks for all you do. - Mrs. R. , Elko, Nevada

JWR Replies: I think that you have chosen a wise course of action. Getting away from any investment denominated in dollars will be a very good thing, since we are likely heading toward a full blown dollar crisis and devaluation in the near future. I'm a big believer in investing in tangibles. I do have an IRA, but since 1999 it has been a self-directed gold coin IRA with American Church Trust. The folks at Swiss America can help you set one up. Under some circumstances a 401(k) can