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Letter Re: California's Absurd Weapons Control Laws
Hi Mr. Rawles,
I live on the sinking Titanic that is California, where this morning one of our co-workers failed to come into work and we could not reach him. We finally heard from him. He had just got out of a night in jail by posting $1,500 bail. Why? Because after a car accident last night, he consented to a police search of his vehicle where they found, of all things, a blackjack. Yes, an old-fashioned small club like the bad guys used in the Bugs Bunny cartoons. Years ago he found it in another state and had carried it in his car here, never realizing it was illegal. Had it instead been a large, hard baseball bat, this nice young man would not have spent the night in jail, lost $1,500, or gained a police record.
Yes, blackjacks are illegal in California according to our Dangerous Weapons Control Law. I can only hope that this is one of those absurd left-over laws from the 19th century.
Lesson learned: Protect yourself from absurd laws, and protect your privacy, by refusing to consent to search. The laws do not always have our best interests in mind. - Jason P.
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Ug-99 and The Ugly Times Ahead--There'll Be Fungus Among Us
My consulting clients often ask me me for predictions. "What's your timeframe, Mister Rawles?" I hear that in almost every consulting call. My clients ask: "When will the US economy crater?" I tell them that is impossible to predict, because there are so many variables and interdependencies, and because the markets are so heavily manipulated. They also ask me: Is the H1N1 Flu sure to mutate in to a more virulent strain, and if so, when?" I answer: "That is impossible to predict." I'm also often quizzed about the Ug-99 wheat fungus (aka "Durable Wheat Rust", or simply "the stem rust"). Clearly, it is advancing , but without a specific timeframe. Scientists are now calling the advance of Ug-99 around the globe "inevitable". My greatest fear is that instead of just being spread gradually by the wind, the stem rust will make "leaps", via the cargo holds of ships, and hence end up in the world's "bread baskets": Australia, the Ukraine, the US, and Canada. In the long run, containment is seen as almost impossible. Thusfar, attempts to create a rust-resistant wheat variety have been thwarted by the rust's rapid mutation rate.
Let's look at some numbers: 20% of the calories consumed by the human population of our planet currently comes from wheat. That means that there will likely be a caloric shortfall for a number of years--until either wheat fields are re-planted in some different crop, or until a viable rust-resistant wheat variety is developed.
I encourage readers to study the Ug-99 threat, and think through its implications on a macro (global) scale. Then think through the implications of a wheat famine at a personal level. Where will you and your family get your daily bread? Have you stored up for seven lean years?
I cannot more strongly urge SurvivalBlog readers: Get your food storage squared away, immediately. Supplies are plentiful now, and prices are still reasonable. But the threats that we are facing are numerous, large, and all too likely. And, of these, UG-99 is almost a certainty in the next decade, and it will directly affect the global food supply. Stop dawdling and get ready. You owe it to your family to do the best that you can to prepare.
In a recent exchange of correspondence abut Ug-99 with reader Jim M., he wrote: "I think stored food should be viewed more as a supplement, especially wheat in view of UG-99. Alternative sources of complex carbohydrates should be sought by preppers. Other grain seed should be planted and replenished by those with land and climate to do so: oats, barley, rye, spelt, millet, maize, quinoa. A few thousand square feet of each suitable grain type would provide continuous seed viability as well as training for larger-scale crops and harvests in the future. Starchy tubers could also figure greatly in extending long-term food stores. Anyone with even a sunny balcony should be able to grow their own potatoes for instance and there are plenty of other tubers they can try."
Preparedness is keyed to trends and to the emergence of general threats, not specific dates. It has not been since Y2K that we've had specific date target. And that was clearly an exception to the general rule. Perhaps we'll someday read about a large asteroid with a predicted earth-crossing orbit (like Apophis), and have a multi-year countdown to disaster. But otherwise,we just have to be ready at all times for a variety of potential situations.
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Letter Re: An Upcoming Retreat Purchase -- Sell Gold or Take a Mortgage?
Jim,
We love your site. It is part of our daily must reads. While driving to view possible retreat locations today, we printed out your advice on retreat locations and read it again as we drove to the determined area. After looking most of the day, we literally stumble upon (because it was not visible from the road – only a for sale sign) a nearly perfect location, several springs, trees, hillside with level areas, in the top three in all categories of your retreat lists, etc.
In looking to make an offer we wanted your advice regarding financing the purchase. Would you recommend selling gold reserves, home equity line of credit (HELOC) on debt-free primary residence, seller financing to the extent available or institutional financing? Why and/or why not for each? Thank you so much for all you are doing. You are providing an extremely valuable and much appreciated service. - Ken I.
JWR Replies: I can understand the temptation to to hang on to your gold and take a mortgage, but to be conservative and low-risk, my advice is to be debt free. We will probably experience another year or two of deflation before inflation re-emerges. Avoid debt in deflationary times! Mortgage debt is a killer when layoffs occur in droves. So go ahead and sell your gold. But, if possible, wait for a short-term rally.
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Security at Places of Worship: More Than a Matter of Faith, by Scott Stewart and Fred Burton
In recent months, several high-profile incidents have raised awareness of the threat posed by individuals and small groups operating under the principles of leaderless resistance. These incidents have included lone wolf attacks against a doctor who performed abortions in Kansas, an armed forces recruitment center in Arkansas and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C. Additionally, a grassroots jihadist cell was arrested for attempting to bomb Jewish targets in the Bronx and planning to shoot down a military aircraft at an Air National Guard base in Newburgh, N.Y.
In addition to pointing out the threat posed by grassroots cells and lone wolf operatives, another common factor in all of these incidents is the threat of violence to houses of worship. The cell arrested in New York left what they thought to be active improvised explosive devices outside the Riverdale Temple and the Riverdale Jewish Community Center. Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in the lobby of the Reformation Lutheran Church in Wichita. Although Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad conducted his attacks against a Little Rock recruiting center, he had conducted preoperational surveillance and research on targets that included Jewish organizations and a Baptist church in places as far away as Atlanta and Philadelphia. And while James von Brunn attacked the Holocaust Museum, he had a list of other potential targets in his vehicle that included the National Cathedral.
In light of this common thread, it might be instructive to take a more detailed look at the issue of providing security for places of worship.
Awareness: The First Step
Until there is awareness of the threat, little can be done to counter it. In many parts of the world, such as Iraq, India and Pakistan, attacks against places of worship occur fairly frequently. It is not difficult for religious leaders and members of their congregations in such places to be acutely aware of the dangers facing them and to have measures already in place to deal with those perils. This is not always the case in the United States, however, where many people tend to have an “it can’t happen here” mindset, believing that violence in or directed against places of worship is something that happens only to other people elsewhere.
This mindset is particularly pervasive among predominantly white American Protestant and Roman Catholic congregations. Jews, Mormons, Muslims and black Christians, and others who have been targeted by violence in the past, tend to be far more aware of the threat and are far more likely to have security plans and measures in place to counter it. The Jewish community has very well-developed and professional organizations such as the Secure Community Network (SCN) and the Anti-Defamation League that are dedicated to monitoring threats and providing education about the threats and advice regarding security. The Council on American-Islamic Relations has taken on a similar role for the Muslim community and has produced a “Muslim community safety kit” for local mosques. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) also has a very organized and well-connected security department that provides information and security advice and assistance to LDS congregations worldwide.
There are no functional equivalents to the SCN or the LDS security departments in the larger Catholic, evangelical Protestant and mainline Protestant communities, though there are some organizations such as the recently established Christian Security Network that have been attempting to fill the void.
Following an incident, awareness of the threat seems to rise for a time, and some houses of worship will put some security measures in place, but for the most part such incidents are seen as events that take place elsewhere, and the security measures are abandoned after a short time.
Permanent security measures are usually not put in place until there has been an incident of some sort at a specific house of worship, and while the triggering incident is sometimes something that merely provides a good scare, other times it is a violent action that results in tragedy. Even when no one is hurt in the incident, the emotional damage caused to a community by an act of vandalism or arson at a house of worship can be devastating.
It is important to note here that not all threats to places of worship will emanate from external actors. In the midst of any given religious congregation, there are, by percentages, people suffering from serious mental illnesses, people engaged in bitter child-custody disputes, domestic violence situations and messy divorces. Internal disputes in the congregation can also lead to feuds and violence. Any of these situations can (and have) led to acts of violence inside houses of worship.
Security Means More than Alarms and Locks
An effective security program is more than just having physical security measures in place. Like any man-made constructs, physical security measures — closed-circuit television (CCTV), alarms, cipher locks and so forth — have finite utility. They serve a valuable purpose in institutional security programs, but an effective security program cannot be limited to these things. Devices cannot think or evaluate. They are static and can be observed, learned and even fooled. Also, because some systems frequently produce false alarms, warnings in real danger situations may be brushed aside. Given these shortcomings, it is quite possible for anyone planning an act of violence to map out, quantify and then defeat or bypass physical security devices. However, elaborate planning is not always necessary. Consider the common scenario of a heavy metal door with very good locks that is propped open with a trashcan or a door wedge. In such a scenario, an otherwise “secure” door is defeated by an internal security lapse.
However, even in situations where there is a high degree of threat awareness, there is a tendency to place too much trust in physical security measures, which can become a kind of crutch — and, ironically, an obstacle to effective security.
In fact, to be effective, physical security devices always require human interaction. An alarm is useless if no one responds to it, or if it is not turned on; a lock is ineffective if it is not engaged. CCTV cameras are used extensively in corporate office buildings and some houses of worship, but any competent security manager will tell you that, in reality, they are far more useful in terms of investigating a theft or act of violence after the fact than in preventing one (although physical security devices can sometimes cause an attacker to divert to an easier target).
No matter what kinds of physical security measures may be in place at a facility, they are far less likely to be effective if a potential assailant feels free to conduct preoperational surveillance, and is free to observe and map those physical security measures. The more at ease someone feels as they set about identifying and quantifying the physical security systems and procedures in place, the higher the odds they will find ways to beat the system.
A truly “hard” target is one that couples physical security measures with an aggressive, alert attitude and sense of awareness. An effective security program is proactive — looking outward to where most real threats are lurking — rather than inward, where the only choice is to react once an attack has begun to unfold. We refer to this process of proactively looking for threats as protective intelligence.
The human interaction required to make physical security measures effective, and to transform a security program into a proactive protective intelligence program, can come in the form of designated security personnel. In fact, many large houses of worship do utilize off-duty police officers, private security guards, volunteer security guards or even a dedicated security staff to provide this coverage. In smaller congregations, security personnel can be members of the congregation who have been provided some level of training.
However, even in cases where there are specially designated security personnel, such officers have only so many eyes and can only be in a limited number of places at any one time. Thus, proactive security programs should also work to foster a broad sense of security awareness among the members of the congregation and community, and use them as additional resources.
Unfortunately, in many cases, there is often a sense in the religious community that security is bad for the image of a particular institution, or that it will somehow scare people away from houses of worship. Because of this, security measures, if employed, are often hidden or concealed from the congregation. In such cases, security managers are deprived of many sets of eyes and ears. Certainly, there may be certain facets of a security plan that not everyone in the congregation needs to know about, but in general, an educated and aware congregation and community can be a very valuable security asset.
Training
In order for a congregation to maintain a sense of heightened awareness it must learn how to effectively do that. This training should not leave people scared or paranoid — just more observant. People need to be trained to look for individuals who are out of place, which can be somewhat counterintuitive. By nature, houses of worship are open to outsiders and seek to welcome strangers. They frequently have a steady turnover of new faces. This causes many to believe that, in houses of worship, there is a natural antagonism between security and openness, but this does not have to be the case. A house of worship can have both a steady stream of visitors and good security, especially if that security is based upon situational awareness.
At its heart, situational awareness is about studying people, and such scrutiny will allow an observer to pick up on demeanor mistakes that might indicate someone is conducting surveillance. Practicing awareness and paying attention to the people approaching or inside a house of worship can also open up a whole new world of ministry opportunities, as people “tune in” to others and begin to perceive things they would otherwise miss if they were self-absorbed or simply not paying attention. In other words, practicing situational awareness provides an excellent opportunity for the members of a congregation to focus on the needs and burdens of other people.
It is important to remember that every attack cycle follows the same general steps. All criminals — whether they are stalkers, thieves, lone wolves or terrorist groups — engage in preoperational surveillance (sometimes called “casing,” in the criminal lexicon). Perhaps the most crucial point to be made about preoperational surveillance is that it is the phase when someone with hostile intentions is most apt to be detected — and the point in the attack cycle when potential violence can be most easily disrupted or prevented.
The second most critical point to emphasize about surveillance is that most criminals are not that good at it. They often have terrible surveillance tradecraft and are frequently very obvious. Most often, the only reason they succeed in conducting surveillance without being detected is because nobody is looking for them. Because of this, even ordinary people, if properly instructed, can note surveillance activity.
It is also critically important to teach people — including security personnel and members of the congregation — what to do if they see something suspicious and whom to call to report it. Unfortunately, a lot of critical intelligence is missed because it is not reported in a timely manner — or not reported at all — mainly because untrained people have a habit of not trusting their judgment and dismissing unusual activity. People need to be encouraged to report what they see.
Additionally, people who have been threatened, are undergoing nasty child-custody disputes or have active restraining orders protecting them against potentially violent people need to be encouraged to report unusual activity to their appropriate points of contact.
As a part of their security training, houses of worship should also instruct their staff and congregation members on procedures to follow if a shooter enters the building and creates what is called an active-shooter situation. These “shooter” drills should be practiced regularly — just like fire, tornado or earthquake drills. The teachers of children’s classes and nursery workers must also be trained in how to react.
Liaison
One of the things the SCN and ADL do very well is foster security liaison among Jewish congregations within a community and between those congregations and local, state and federal law enforcement organizations. This is something that houses of worship from other faiths should attempt to duplicate as part of their security plans.
While having a local cop in a congregation is a benefit, contacting the local police department should be the first step. It is very important to establish this contact before there is a crisis in order to help expedite any law enforcement response. Some police departments even have dedicated community liaison officers, who are good points of initial contact. There are other specific points of contact that should also be cultivated within the local department, such as the SWAT team and the bomb squad.
Local SWAT teams often appreciate the chance to do a walk-through of a house of worship so that they can learn the layout of the building in case they are ever called to respond to an emergency there. They also like the opportunity to use different and challenging buildings for training exercises (something that can be conducted discreetly after hours). Congregations with gyms and weight rooms will often open them up for local police officers to exercise in, and some congregations will also offer police officers a cup of coffee and a desk where they can sit and type their reports during evening hours.
But the local police department is not the only agency with which liaison should be established. Depending on the location of the house of worship, the state police, state intelligence fusion center or local joint terrorism task force should also be contacted. By working through state and federal channels, houses of worship in specific locations may even be eligible for grants to help underwrite security through programs such as the Department of Homeland Security’s Urban Areas Security Initiative Nonprofit Security Grant Program.
The world is a dangerous place and attacks against houses of worship will continue to occur. But there are proactive security measures that can be taken to identify attackers before they strike and help prevent attacks from happening or mitigate their effects when they do. - Scott Stewart and Fred Burton, Stratfor
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Letter Re: Dealing With Local Building Inspectors
Mr. Rawles,
[To follow up on TANSTAAFL's letter,] I have worked for several engineering firms as a GIS technician, then manager. Counties will advertise when they will be re-flying parts or all of the county. Most county engineers, auditor, or Property Valuation Administrator (PVA) offices will tell you what the schedule for mapping is out a couple of years (usually the department in charge of tax assessments). A give away that it is happening is when you see large X's painted in intersections with a metal spike sunk in the middle of the X (these are control points), with survey trucks with GPS receivers sitting in intersections or other open ground. Most orthophotography is done in late winter or late fall, when the leaves are off the trees and there is no snow on the ground. Evergreen trees are good for masking what lies on the surface. Not much you can do to hide any earth work that changes contours. There is another means of gathering contour information, LIDAR. Basically a laser that oscillates and paints the ground. Even trees won't fully obscure it.
On a side note, the old USGS quadrangle maps are now almost supplanted by FEMA's flood insurance rate maps, which are all digital. There is all kinds of info available through those maps for interested parties.
On the non-government side, Google Earth is getting better resolution all the time, farther and farther away from population centers.
Your best bet to avoid attention is anonymity. That is true for all sorts of things. - School Dude
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The Meme of Crushroom: A Key Retreat Architecture Element
One bit of retreat architecture that I've often recommended to my consulting clients who are designing (or retrofitting) retreats is the inclusion of a protruding entryway foyer, that I call a crushroom. Passing this advice along to you gives me the chance to employ one of my horrible puns: The Meme of Crushroom. A crushroom is a controllable confined space, typically an entry foyer, that can be covered with small arms fire or subjected to irritant or obscurant smoke or sprays. The outer door (or barred gate) to the crushroom is normally left open, but has a spring loaded self -closure device, and an automatically-engaged remote-controlled lock release mechanism. Think of it as a box trap for Bad Guys. Have you ever visited a Big City apartment with a communal door where you need to get "buzzed in"? In this case, the Bad Guys will have to be buzzed out of your crushroom
The home invasion threat can only be expected to increase in coming years. I anticipate greater use of dynamic-entry tools by home invaders. For instance, they will soon use commercial or improvised door-entry battering rams and Hallagan tools—like those used by firemen and police entry teams. This means that standard solid-core doors by themselves will be insufficient. In a worst, case, thugs might even use vehicle-mounted battering rams. In such circumstances, it will be wise to have the extra layer of protection afforded by a crushroom.
You should position the outer door to your crushroom one of its side walls, rather than lined up with the entrance door to the house. Having this 90-degree turn and allowing just a four foot space in front of the house entrance door has several advantages: First. it makes it impossible to use a long battering ram--since it limits the length and "throw" of a battering ram. (Even a very stout door, hinges, and doorframe will not withstand the impact of a 10-foot-long battering ram that is manned by a team of thugs). Second, it removes direct line of sight into your house. This is useful for light discipline, in a grid-down situation. (When you are likely to have electric lights in your house interior, but your neighbors won't.) Lastly, the crushroom wall opposite your front door provides another layer of ballistic protection--it would have to be knocked down before your front door could be attacked.
Picture this: With your intrusion detection security system, you see one or more thugs approach your house. They are acting "hinkey", or outright aggressive--perhaps rushing in to conduct a home invasion robbery. Then they proceed to try to kick down your front door. But lo and behold, they don't succeed, because you've built your door and barred it to Rawles specifications. (Strong enough to resist even a small battering ram, and armored against small arms fire.) Using your intercom-loudspeaker, you sternly warn them away. But since they have bravado to spare and have never before encountered a door that they couldn't kick in, they persist with their futile leg exercises. At that point, you already have your telephone in hand, and have dialed 911. (That is assuming your are in pre-Schumeresque circumstances, when there still is a police or sheriff's department willing and able to respond.) You then flip the switch, releasing the crushroom's outer door. It slams shut, and locks. Now, the thugs feel trapped, crowded, or crushed in the close confines of the foyer. They will then almost surely turn their attention to kicking at the outer door (or barred gate). At this juncture, you have several "continuum of force" options:
A.) You shout a stern warning and then hit the switch releasing the outer door and "buzz them out." This is effectively just letting them go,, with a warning. Such a course of action is recommended only in current day "peaceful" circumstances.
B.) Using your exterior loudspeaker, you spend five minutes sharing the Gospel with the thugs, then you hit the switch to release the outer door.
C.) You pull a wire that is attached to the pin on a smoke grenade in the decorative "overhead light fixture" in the foyer, and simultaneously start playing your retreat's PSYOPS tape over your exterior loudspeaker, at around 60 decibels. This combination (especially a violet smoke grenade and a tape of Jimi Hendrix playing Purple Haze) is sure to make the thugs think twice about coming back.
D.) You pull a wire on that is attached to the pin on a CS tear gas grenade, and simultaneously start playing your retreat's PSYOPS tape at around 90 decibels. This, (especially a tape of Credence Clearwater Revival singing Bad Moon Rising) will probably make the goblins soil their trousers and reconsider their life of crime.
E.) You slide open an armored gun port, and protrude the muzzle of your favorite large-caliber lead dispenser.
F.) Any combination of options B, C, D, or E, in whichever sequence seems apropos, given the day's relative Schumer Index and the prevailing exigency of the circumstances.
Alternatively, your crushroom could normally be kept locked from the outside. This will provide a valuable delay for even the most ambitious dynamic entry by home invaders. It will also provide you a safe place for you take delivery of mail and packages with some "stand-off" distance.
Four Important Provisos:
1.) Only build a crushroom if you are also going to first upgrade your front door and doorframe to very stout specifications, and the surrounding wall is of similarly stout (i.e. masonry) construction. The last thing that you want to experience is a bunch of enraged bad guys actually entering your home.
2.) Do not mention the purpose of your crushroom to friends, neighbors, or even relatives. It should outwardly just look like either a "mud room", a "weather airlock", or perhaps a "Spanish style" foyer, with "decorative" heavy wrought iron bars. If you are indiscreet, word of it may get around, and then at best you'll get labeled as the local survivalist whacko. Or at worst, word will get as far as the local band of goblins, and whilst sharpening their knives they will deviously plan to bypass your crushroom entirely. They may decide to either bushwhack you while you are out splitting wood, or invade your house via your roof, with a chainsaw or a fireman's metal-cutting rescue saw.
3.) I most strongly encourage readers to use your crushroom's outer door as a mantrap (and any of the other active measures that I've mentioned) only in truly post-TEOTWAWKI circumstances. As I've noted many times before in SurvivalBlog, we live in an extremely litigious society. Displaying the audacity to actually hold bad guys in place until the gendarmes arrive could be grounds for civil lawsuits (for false arrest, excessive use of force, mental distress, etc.,) and possibly even criminal charges. In essence, if you hold someone in a citizen's arrest in excess of what a jury of your peers deems justifiable and reasonable, then you could conceivably be charged with felony kidnapping. Here, the "Reasonable Man" standard will probably be applied. (Black's Law Dictionary defines citizen's arrest as: "The apprehending or detaining of a person in order to be forthcoming to answer an alleged or suspected crime." See: ex parte Sherwood, (29 Tex. App. 334, 15 S.W. 812).
4.) Be sure to provide yourself a way out of your crushroom, in the event that the outer door closes unexpectedly when you don't have a door key in your pocket. Perhaps a spare key that is very well-hidden behind some molding.
For further background, see this letter in the SurvivalBlog archives on "man trap" architectural features.
Some Suggested Suppliers:
Door closing springs. Check your local Yellow Pages for "Fire Door" hardware suppliers. Your local locksmith probably knows of a supplier, or may have a pile of used one in his back room. For a man trap, the faster the action of the door closure, the better. Hence, a traditional coil spring action is preferable to the more modern, slower pneumatically-dampened springs. Think in terms of cattle chute hardware, rather than what you'd likely see on shopping mall doors.
Door release solenoids. (You've probably seen these on fire doors at hospitals and other public buildings.) Note that in circumstances where grid power is iffy, you can substitute a mechanical release, activated by a simple pull-cable and cotter pin.
Door lock & release solenoid ("buzzer lock") mechanisms. Search for local suppliers with a the web search phrases "mantrap" or "common door buzzer lock". To provide sufficient "hold the goblins in place" strength, you may have to use multiple locking solenoids--at the top, middle, and bottom of the door--that are engaged and disengaged simultaneously.
CS tear gas grenades. These are available from police supply houses. In most states it is not illegal for citizens to possess them. But by their company sales policy, most police supply houses will only sell these to orders placed on police department letterhead. But I've occasionally seen gas grenades sold at at gun shows, and they also come up from time to time on firearms auction sites like GunBroker.com and AuctionArms.com. For example, see this current GunBroker auction. Be sure to consult your state and local laws before buying these or similar pyrotechnic devices.
Gun Ports. You might luck into some of these at a scrap yard (from a retired bank armored car), but more likely you will have to fabricate these yourself, or have a welding shop make them for you. Remember: Gun ports work both ways, so you will want a thick, well-braced, sliding backing plate that latches securely. Specify everything for the ports very thick and very stout. Any exposed hardware should be large-diameter and welded in place, once assembled.
Exterior (weather resistant) loudspeakers. Rather than buying new (and expensive) speakers, try placing a "wanted" ad in Craigslist. It is amazing to see what people have salted away in their garages and attics.
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Letter Re: Feedback on The American Empire is Bankrupt
JWR:
I was puzzled by the piece by Chris Hedges (The American Empire is Bankrupt, from truthdig.com) that you linked to in Friday's SurvivalBlog. There are two huge, crucial, inestimable, incredibly fundamental flaws in Hedges' article:
* One is his assessment of the primary cause of the American national bankruptcy,
* The second is his conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as that bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives.
First, the fundamental causes of the American bankruptcy. Hedges quotes heavily from an article from & interview by The Financial Times' Michael Hudson. So that I don't take anything out of context, here is the text direct from Hedges' article, mostly quoting Hudson:
- "The balance-of-payments deficit is mainly military in nature. Half of America’s discretionary spending is military. The deficit ends up in the hands of foreign banks, central banks. They don’t have any choice but to recycle the money to buy U.S. government debt. The Asian countries have been financing their own military encirclement."
- "There are three categories of the balance-of-payment deficits. America imports more than it exports. This is trade. Wall Street and American corporations buy up foreign companies. This is capital movement. The third and most important balance-of-payment deficit for the past 50 years has been Pentagon spending abroad. It is primarily military spending that has been responsible for the balance-of-payments deficit for the last five decades."
- "To fund our permanent war economy, we have been flooding the world with dollars. The foreign recipients turn the dollars over to their central banks for local currency. The central banks then have a problem."
These statements are partially true...as far as they go. But what is left out is more important than what is said. No discussion (in fact, not even a mention) of spending for the U.S. welfare state? Not even the slightest consideration of the fact that American military capabilities are clearly authorized as Constitutional responsiblities--but not our welfare state? This is, simply put, looney toons logic and math.
· Reasonable people can argue over costs, scope and effectiveness of U.S. military budgets/overseas operations (not to mention declared and undeclared wars) since 1916. But that's not where all the big money has been going. The serious spending increases in our budget are in domestic nanny statism, welfare, circuses and feasts—since at least 1965. You don't have to be a degreed economist to figure out that military spending constitutes "half of America’s discretionary spending" is because welfare state spending has been made non-discretionary! After all, that is why they're called entitlements!
o We could defund every military capability we have...but not a single welfare payment can be stayed legally by the hand of the President, his Cabinet, or the U.S. Congress. Welfare and nanny-state benefits are literally entitlements, and by law cannot be left unfunded.
· Things like welfare benefits, Section 8 Housing, etc., especially in this age of electronic payments, must be paid, even if the Congress does not pass those parts of the federal budget. (I believe this was written into law soon after the Clinton-Congress budget train wrecks in the 1990s.)
· If you cut the entire U.S. military budget in half, you only dent the deficit. But if you cut just 25% of the sum total of all welfare state benefits, there would be a huge annual federal budget surplus.
o I conclude Hedges' illogical placement of blame for the budget situation, and all of the impending consequences, are based on his political leanings... which are decidedly leftist, judging by this article. So, what is he trying to accomplish, since he is blaming the wrong folks for the crime?
Second, I completely and absolutely dispute (verily, even dismiss) Hedges' conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as the U.S. bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives. Hedges states that:
* "If [other nations] succeed [in dumping the U.S. dollar as the world's primary currency], the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak. And the rage that has kindled a handful of shootings and hate crimes in the past few weeks will engulf vast segments of a disenfranchised and bewildered working and middle class. The people of this class will demand vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal, which an array of proto-fascists, from the Christian right to the goons who disseminate hate talk on Fox News, will assure the country they will impose."
Hedges is saying, politely, that those crazy religious people clinging to their guns are already going nuts, and they will get even worse once they start starving! And all of the "proto-fascists," which presumably means all of those folks recently described in Department of Homeland Security memoranda as being "risks" [read: pro-life, pro-balanced budget, conservative, libertarian, pro-2nd Amendment, Christians, ministers, bishops, Ron Paul supporters, Republicans, etc.], will be using the opportunity to enact "vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal." What Hedges fundamentally has done is blame all the victims for being raped!!!
* I'm surprised he didn't go further and blame it on all of those evil "survivalists," but even looney tunes logic has trouble blaming the preppers for the very situation they've been predicting for a couple of decades now.
Personally, when TSHTF I won't be nearly as worried about "working and middle class" folks as I am about the welfare-dependent, “entitlements-R-us” folks. The working and middle class folks have the brains to figure things out--we've had a number of neighbors start quietly storing food and gear over the last six months--even the ones who (now regretfully) voted for Obama. But, as proven repeatedly during and after the Katrina crunch...it is the welfare-dependent underclass that will tear the cities and countryside apart. Can things get ugly among "working and middle class" types?? Of course. Still, I think most folks who actually work for a living will quickly band together for security and burden-sharing purposes to endure and survive. However, I'm far more skeptical about those who think "the government" owes them a living, no matter what the situation--survivalblog.com fans are well aware of the many violent examples of that syndrome following multiple disasters over the last decade. (If not, try a couple of internet searches for "Katrina violence" or "Katrina gun confiscation" or "Katrina looting" or...well, you get the idea.")
Bottom line: Hedges's article borrowed the language, analysis and conclusions of the prepper/survivalist/fiscal conservative movements--to use as a tool with which to attack them indirectly. Indeed, Hedges appears far more interested in painting the impending social unrest (read: welfare & food riots) as a tool of the another evil right wing conspiracy, than in acknowledging them as the inevitable consequence of the social policies he has supported and championed.
Many of us were taught in our youth that we should "dance with the girl what ya brung." I think Hedges has concluded his "girl" (read: politics) is darn ugly, emits foul body odors, suffers from multiple social diseases, and has bad teeth to boot. Not surprisingly, he now wants to switch partners while blaming it on all the other, far more circumspect squires at the Preppers' Informal Dance--but we shouldn't help him get away with it. Respectfully, - Gentleman Jim in Colorado.
« Two Letters Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009 |Main| Notes from JWR: »
U.S. Dollar: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, by Axel Merk
Russian President Medvedev suggests the dollar is on its way out; Russian Finance minister Kudrin says there is no substitute for the dollar. The Chinese see a need to diversify out of the dollar; the Japanese say their trust in the dollar is unshakable. Let’s look at this puzzle and make some sense of it.
It’s usually more productive to look at what policy makers do rather than what they say. Having said that, this time around, the talk also speaks volumes. Notably, world leaders have expressed their concern about the U.S. dollar and a need to diversify, to reduce dependence on the U.S., to build new alliances as well as to strengthen domestic markets. This is the strategic perspective. Conversely, when a finance minister speaks, it is the realistic perspective. There is simply no substitute for the U.S. dollar today; no other market is as deep and liquid, or able to absorb the cash that needs to be deployed by central banks around the world. The eurozone is (a distant) second, with no clear third contender in line. When China announced it sharply increased its gold holdings, their gold holdings actually decreased as a percentage of total reserves. That’s because the gold market is tiny compared to the money markets (or even compared to most other economic sectors) and China has mostly been acquiring domestic gold production, to avoid causing disruptions in the world markets.
Does that mean the dollar is safe and one should forget about gold as some suggest? Before you exchange your hard money for freshly printed Federal Reserve Notes (the U.S. dollar), think about the dynamics: the CEO of a country says we need to change course; the CFO says we don’t have the tools to get from A to B today. Any CEO worth their salt (and arguably some might not be) will tell the CFO not to whine about the obstacles, but come up with a solution. If you don’t have the tools, get the tools! Turning a large ship around may take some time (in the case of General Motors it took too long), but the ship will eventually change course. Circling back to the greenback, its value is set by supply and demand; more importantly, the marginal buyer or seller sets the price of the day. If, on the margin, countries increase their non-dollar holdings, odds are high it may have a negative impact on the dollar. Everybody hopes this adjustment process will be slow and gradual; with due respect, however, hope is not a strategy.
To put substance behind the hope, we believe countries around the world are racing to put the “tools” in place to be less dependent on the U.S. dollar. In Asia, for example, after the 1997/1998 financial crisis, Asian countries realized they needed to bolster their countries’ reserves. In the latest crisis, they realized that holding almost exclusively U.S. dollar reserves was a risky strategy. The solution is all too obvious, namely to develop domestic markets. This isn’t just about developing domestic consumption to create a more “balanced” world economy, this is about creating domestic infrastructures, fixed income markets in particular. Currently, many global investors invest in Asian markets by buying U.S. dollar denominated securities plus derivatives. This makes Asian issuers – governments, supranational and corporate issuers alike highly dependent on the U.S. dollar. This will only change if global investors have confidence in the stability and maturity of the local markets. The message to “CEOs” of countries around the world is to show that they are open and ready for business. Such trust is not earned overnight. In Asia, Singapore is a leader; not surprisingly, Singapore has a healthy domestic fixed income market. China is on its way, but needs to do more to provide access to its domestic markets (also see our recent analysis Geithner & China: Who are You Fooling?).
Global imbalances typically refer to the fact that the U.S. is responsible for much of the world’s consumption and spending; whereas Asia focuses on production and saving; this is quantified in the current account deficit. Historically, when the current account deficit reaches too high a portion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the currency serves as a valve to help level the playing field. To understand the dynamics, one has to realize that global imbalances will always be with us – the world is not flat. However, dangerous imbalances can be built up if the valves are disabled. Of the smaller countries, New Zealand has shown that it is willing to keep its valves open – during the boom years, interest rates were raised in an effort to calm an overheating housing market as the current account deficit approached 10% of GDP; New Zealand suffered in the bust, but unlike most countries, allowed market forces to play out. The currency suffered substantially, but the country is now better positioned than most to participate as the world tries to reflate. At the other end of the globe, take Latvia, which has a current account deficit of about 26% of GDP while insisting on pegging its currency to the euro. Not only has the Latvian economy been wrecked, possibly for years to come, it may pull Sweden down with it, because Swedish banks have substantial exposure to the Baltic country. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are rightfully concerned about what may happen to neighboring countries if and when Latvia devalues its currency. Ask anyone in New Zealand and the response is that the roller coaster of its currency has been no fun and painful to many businesses; however, these are rough economic times and New Zealand has swallowed its medicine. When countries resist, far greater harm can be caused.
This past weekend, finance ministers gave a pep talk for the dollar. They also assured the world that the focus is shifting from saving the world’s financial system from collapse to the “exit” strategy; German chancellor Merkel has been a leading voice in warning central banks that the current policies may lead to substantial inflation. Let us discuss the dynamics here briefly: a key driver of inflation is inflationary expectations – when inflation is a fear, employees will ask for higher wages; businesses will try to push for higher prices, amongst others. As a result, central banks seem to believe that printing money is no problem as long as the markets believe that central banks have an exit strategy; that central banks will mop up all the liquidity in time. To recap, why do central banks say they are working on an exit strategy? That’s what the market wants to hear. How likely is it that they are indeed going to get tough? In our assessment, it’s about as likely as a balanced budget from the U.S. administration.
We have had a lot of talk of “green shoots”, but once one looks deeper, most negative news one hears are facts, whereas most positive news appears to be subjective forecasts and expectations of policy makers. Dark clouds on the horizon include sharply rising mortgage rates (in progress); major trouble in the commercial real estate sector; a continued dislocation in the housing market where home prices cannot be sustained by income; a big wave of foreclosures yet to come as many of those who bought their houses at the peak of the market in 2007 are likely to see big challenges in the summer of 2010 as their mortgages begin to reset. In the banking sector, problems have been brushed away by easing accounting rules. In Europe, a catastrophe in Baltic countries may only be a matter of time; while the IMF and central banks around the world may ride to the rescue, does this sound like the beginning of the exit strategy? Not to us.
Add to that the amount of debt that needs to be raised by the U.S. government. According to our calculations, at least US$15 billion may need to be issued every single business day until the end of the year. This will require a substantial ramp up from the pace seen in recent weeks, a pace that saw bond prices plunge (long term interest rates rise) due to the increased supply of government bonds in the market. When considering that summer months tend to be slower months for governments to issue debt (it’s vacation time around the world), we believe long-term interest rates may have to rise substantially later this year to attract buyers. The U.S. government will be able to finance its deficits, the question will be at what cost. Interest rates are one issue; the other is whether government activities will crowd out private sector borrowers. Corporate America also needs to finance its operations, not just the government, and where is that money going to come from? What about all the other countries that are issuing record amounts of debt? Just ask Latvia – a recent government bond auction yielded zero bidders. But even established countries, say Ireland, have seen the cost of its borrowing surge.
That’s when the bad may turn to ugly: how will central banks, notably the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. react should interest rates soar? Will they allow it to happen as they currently posture? It looks to us that we risk a collapse of economic growth if the cost of financing soars. There is still too much leverage in the U.S. economy, at the consumer level in particular. At this stage, a broken system has been propped up; the housing market is seen as key to an economic recovery – and all that money printing will have been in vain if market forces overwhelm the Fed by pushing interest rates higher. Naturally, the Fed puts up a brave face. Ultimately, this may be a game of chicken where Fed talk aims to keep interest rates low. However, we believe the Fed may blink first, and increase its financing activities of the U.S. deficit; by printing the money to finance government debt, the Fed may jeopardize the U.S. dollar, in particular if the Fed, as we believe, will be “more efficient” at printing money than other central banks around the world.
Will events unfold as described here? We don’t know, but we believe the risk is real; and if investors agree this risk is real, they may want to consider doing something about it in their portfolio allocation. We have not exchanged our gold for Federal Reserves Notes.
- Axel Merk, Manager of the Merk Hard and Asian Currency Funds
« Getting Started With Dairy Goats, by The Memsahib |Main| Note from JWR: »
A Derivatives Market Meltdown: "We Apologize for the Inconvenience"
The collapse of the Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) market underscored the enormous overhang of the larger over-the-counter derivatives contracts market. This is far from over, folks! For example, we have not yet to seen a full-blown Credit Default Swap (CDS) market implosion. I have been warning blog readers about CDS instruments since 2005. And even though our politics are diametrically opposed, I was not surprised to see George Soros recently chime in on the subject. Derivative instruments are essentially unregulated and they measure in the hundreds of trillions of dollars. The counterparty risk is enormous, yet the derivatives market is quite opaque and little understood, even by most of the people that work in the financial sector.
To illustrate both the potential magnitude of a derivatives disaster,
and the incredibly blissful ignorance of most investors, I offer the following analogy:
You are a business traveler. It is 9 a.m. on a Monday morning and you are
seated at a crowded gate at the Newark, New Jersey airport, waiting for boarding
of
the 9:25 Delta Airlines flight to Atlanta. You are feeling nervous, because
the 20-something man that is sitting next to you is suffering from a
bad hangover. You've correctly surmised that over the weekend he got fleeced
at the gaming tables in Atlantic City after the casino offered him too
many "comp" cocktails. He looks only semi-conscious and you are afraid
that he is going to puke on your nice suit. A ticket agent announces on the
loudspeaker: "Ladies and gentlemen, I have some bad news." She pauses
and you think to yourself: "Oh great, two or three of us are going to
get bumped." The agent goes on: " It was just announced by the chairman
of Delta Airlines that the company has declared bankruptcy. All Delta flights
have been cancelled for the foreseeable future. Because Delta is now insolvent,
no replacement tickets, vouchers, or refunds will be issued. We apologize for
the inconvenience. Have a nice day, and thanks for flying Delta Airlines." There
are shouts and anguished cries from the other passengers. You sit for a minute
in stunned silence. Your mind is racing. You remember reading that Delta has
over 1,630 scheduled flights a day, moving roughly 277,000 passengers per day
from city to city. The drunken gambler
shouts "Hey!" and he leans close to your face. With his breath
smelling like a dog kennel and his eyes glassy, he asks: "I don't get it, man. What do they
mean, "insolvent"? You take a few minutes to explain the situation
in simple terms to him. But the gambler just gives you a blank stare. "What
do you mean,?" he repeats. Now you are angry, and you shout at him: "Aren't
I getting through to you? I'm talking about two hundred and seventy seven thousand
bumped passengers!" Finally, the dazed drunk has a flash of realization
across his face. "Oh. I get it. This is bad news. It'll be hours before they'll
call for seating on my row!"
« Letters Re: Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Welcome to the Savage World of the Year 2009
"Welcome to the savage world of the year 2009". That
was the tag line of the 1992 sci-fi film Freejack
, starring Emilio Estevez.
Do you remember it? The movie that featured Cadillac Gage V100 wheeled APCs painted in bright colors? My old
friend All-Grace-No-Slack-Really-Reformed Kris just reminded me about this movie.
Kris
noted: "It
was a bit corny but it had some good scenes and characters such as Amanda Plummer
as
the gun-toting
nun." This film provides an insight on what futurists then thought
2009
would be like, as well as a retrospective on life in 1992.
Let's look back at 1992: It is amazing how much the
world has changed since 1992. To me, it doesn't seem that long ago. In 1992
I was 32
years, old, and our first child was an infant. In 1992, .308 ball cost $180
per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 cost around $350, and cases of MREs could
be bought at gun shows for around $30 each. Back in those days, I was running
a mail order business from home, selling magazines. I was buying M1 Carbine
15
round magazines
in cases of 100, for $90 per case, and re-selling them by the onesees
and twosees for $3 per magazine. (One of my "get rich slow" ventures.) In 1992, you could still buy a plane ticket for
cash, and stroll right up to the departure gate without a ticket in hand. Yes,
there was a metal detector, but you could board a commercial flight with a
pocketknife with a single-edge blade less than 2-1/2" long. (Remember when knife catalogs had "Airline approved" models?) In 1992, gasoline
was $1.05 per gallon ($1.09 for premium), and a good loaf of bread still cost
49
cents. In 1992 you
could take a car trip into Mexico or Canada, with a smile and the wave of your
state driver's license.
In 1992, I owned a small ranch near Orofino, Idaho.
House prices there ranged
from $39,000 to $155,000. (In 1989, we had paid $29,000 for an
unfinished
house on 40 acres.) Silver started that year at $4.20 per ounce, but drifted
down to under $3.70 in December. (It was still in the midst of a two-decade
long bear market.) A semi-auto AK-47 cost $179, an AR-15 was around $500,
and an M1A was $800.
Fast forward to 2009: The local gun shops are chronically
short of ammunition, and what little they do receive from their wholesalers sells out immediately, at an average of $1 per round. Today .308
ball costs
$900 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 costs around $1,200. A case of MREs
can cost
upwards of $90, and a loaf of bread is anywhere from 99 cents for the dreadful
"air bread" to $4.69 for the good stuff. Gas is back up to more than
$2.50 per gallon. A semi-auto AK-47 costs around $700, a low-end AR-15 is around $1,200,
and
a standard grade
M1A is $1,600 if you can find one. Today, people line up like sheep
and remove their shoes before boarding an airplane, and opening a checking
account requires umpteen pieces of identification. Now, thanks to "Homeland
Security" regulations, they will
turn you
down if
you don't have a physical street address. (BTW, that gets a bit sticky here
in The Unnamed Western State, where lots of my neighbors live so far back
in the
boonies
that
they don't have a street address. The bankers get all befuddled if you start
quoting the Township, Range, and Section numbers of your quarter-section.
In 2009, house
prices are still plummeting from their 2006 highs, but still quite "spendy." A
house around Orofino with a good spring now costs around $400,000. Who knows? In the current bear market, the price of houses may not bottom until they are close to their
1992 levels. Oh, and wait a minute! Firearms manufactuers are now working around the clock, and prices are expected to soon come back down. In 1992, a Steyr AUG cost $800, but then
they peaked in 2008 at around $4,000. But now new production AUGs
(made by Steyr in the US) have hit the market for under $1,800. You gotta love a free market economy. Maybe the more that things change, the
more they remain the same.
The "Freejack" script was loosely based on Robert Sheckley's novel "Immortality, Inc." The screenwriters had a few things right, but plenty of things wrong. For example, the "destroyed ozone layer" hasn't wrecked our health. And I don't feel at risk of my brain being hijacked. But, then again, I don't own a television.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Seeking Reader Input for "Patriots" Sequels »
Mexican Flu Update:
Anger Over Breach of Quarantine in Oz
Swine Flu Infects 13,000 People in 46 Countries
« Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Letter Re: DIY Baking Powder Solves a Shelf Life Dilemma »
Letter Re: A Ship's Belated Flu Quarantine as an Object Lesson
Hi Jim,
Here is a bit about the progress of Swine Flu in Australia with this
article about a quarantined luxury cruise ship.
We now have a cruise ship, the P & O Pacific Dawn, being quarantined at
Willis Island on the Great Barrier Reef – with 2000 people on board.
Yesterday the ship was photographed flying the yellow quarantine flag! Our “brilliant” state
health departments let 20 infected people disembark at Sydney and they [then]
flew throughout Australia .
[Some background:] 13 of these people turned up at the Robina Hospital at
the Gold Coast and the staff at the hospital had no idea what to do with them.
The
people
were
put in a single room with a single bed and most of the family was made to sleep
on the floor. Authorities seemed to be clueless.
They (the New South S]Wales government) then let new passengers embark on the
infected ship and let the ship leave Sydney on a trip. They also let three
infected staff
sail
on the
new
voyage. No prizes for guessing what happened next. All people on board now
exposed to the swine flu and the ship has been quarantined.
I really enjoy your web log and I have been sharing it with my friends. Keep
up the great work and my prayers and best wishes to your wife with her illness.
Yours sincerely - Jamie in Queensland, Australia
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Questions on EMP Protection »
Mexican Flu Update:
Scientist: UK Swine Flu Really 30,000
Swine
Flu Spreading Wider Than Official Data Shows So, if just 1 in 20 confirmed
cases
are being
reported in the US, then there are possibly now 100,000 US cases
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests »
Mexican Flu Update:
Face
Protection Effective in Preventing the Spread of Influenza, Study Suggests
Swine Flu Hits Spanish Military Base; 500 Quarantined
18 US Soldiers Have H1N1 in Kuwait
« Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Letter Re: Keep Ammo in Original Boxes? »
Letter Re: FDA Restricts Over the Counter Sales of Bulk-Size Hemostatic Supplies
Sir;
I try to keep a gun shot trauma kit with my shooting range supplies; when I
was ordering some new medical supplies from North
American Rescue I was informed that the public can no longer purchase
Quikclot ACS+
or any other such hemostatic from them. The operator proceeded to tell me that
the [U.S.] Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
began regulating these products mid-May because "they go inside the human
body." I
was able to order some of my other products in the "scrape
and light cut" size" but none of the larger quantity hemostatics.
Perhaps some other SurvivalBlog readers might have some insight into this situation
and can offer some advice. Regards, - "Pop N Fresh"
JWR Replies: That is a most unfortunate development. Much
like last year, when Polar Pure iodine crystals were taken off the market, it
sounds like another window of opportunity is closing.
I strongly encourage readers to stock up on Celox and
QuikClot while
there is
still some
remaining inventory available from individual retailers. Several of our
loyal advertisers-- including Safecastle and
Ready
Made Resources--carry these products, and probably still have some left
on hand. I'm sure that they would appreciate your patronage. BTW, please mention
SurvivalBlog whenever you contact any of our advertisers. Thanks!
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: FDA Restricts Over the Counter Sales of Bulk-Size Hemostatic Supplies »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO
Chief Says to Expect Severe Flu
Genetic Analysis of Swine Flu
WHO Warns of Double Influenza Threat
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests »
Mexican Flu Update:
Kudos to KAF for sending this piece: Researchers:
Swine Flu Genes Swirled for Decades Undetected
Emergency
Preparedness Exercises Held at Banks
Swine Flu Spreads in Australia
Some Older People May Be Immune to Swine Flu
Swine Flu Extends to Tokyo; 11,000 Cases Worldwide
56 Hospitalized with Swine Flu in NYC
Dr. Niman's World Flu Tracking Map
« Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Biological Threat Assessment and Containment, by Anon.T »
Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America's Emergency Medical Services
Dear Mr. Rawles,
As an avid SurvivalBlog reader since '05, I've got to say, the quality of your
blog continues to go up and up. Just when I think I can't possibly absorb
anything more, new posts appear that make me think, plan, and act.
Upon your
blog's advice, I have begun taking an EMT class at a local college to expand
my medical knowledge base. What the Paramedic teacher said today in class
gave me the chills. We were discussing all manner of diseases and then he touched on H1N1, the Swine Flu
and its possible affects upon the EMS system. He said that during the SARS crisis, which in our neck of the woods was just a brief scare, the volume of calls into the 911 center went up 10% for
several weeks due to everyone that had a cold thinking they had SARS. The EMS crews were advised that if they transported a patient with symptoms consistent
with SARS, that they were to disinfect the entire truck with a bleach and water
solution from top to bottom and then allow the truck to air dry for three hours
before it was placed back into service. He noted that in our county of around
1/2 million people, there were 20 to 30 ambulances on duty at any one time.
He dryly noted that it would not take much of a crisis in public health to bring the EMS system as we know it to
it's knees just based on the increase in call volume,not to mention
the ambulance down-time to disinfect the vehicles.
One solution [that the instructor] hypothesized, was a system of 911 triage
in a pandemic that said to callers, we will not transport you if you have the
flu; you are on your own to get to the hospital. I think this point should
be obvious to most SurvivalBlog readers but it dovetails nicely with the pharmacist's
postings regarding securing your anti-viral drugs now.
All the best to you and your family, - B.H.I.
JWR Adds: For anyone that missed my May 1st post about getting
ready for an influenza panic, this portion bears repeating:
I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers seriously think through the implications
of successive waves of Mexican Flu sweeping around the globe for the next three
years. From what we've already seen of its virulence after the normal "cold
and flu season", then the next couple of winters could bring very high
rates of infection and overwhelm the healthcare system. Please take the time
to watch Dr.
Henry Niman of
Recombinomics discussing"Swine" flu. His projections are disturbing,
to say the least! Think this through folks, on a macro scale: How would a pandemic
impact your work? Commuting? Grocery shopping? Church activities? School? (If
you are not yet homeschooling, then you should plan on it!) Your vacation plans?
Summer camp? Family holiday get-togethers? Sports and cultural
events? These
implications
are enormous. As SurvivalBlog readers, you are already accustomed to
contemplating
abstractions
at this level and getting "ahead of the power curve." You also likely
have
the
benefit
of
superior
training
and
a deep
larder. And, hopefully, many of you took my advice three years ago,
and began to develop home-based businesses. (Mail order businesses will undoubtedly
flourish, as people shun face-to-face
sales.)
There are no guarantees, but you have a better chance
of getting through this unscathed than most of your neighbors. Hopefully, all
of you read the backgrounder
on family flu preparedness, that I've had posted here are SurvivalBlog
for more than three years. But if not... Now is time to make
the requisite adjustments to your daily routine and to top off your
logistics:
- Now is the time to order several boxes of N95
masks
and
rolls of bandage tape (for sealing any mask edge gaps )
- Now is the time to buy a steam
vaporizer
(new,
or used -- Try Craig's
List for used ones)
- Now is the time to approach your family doctor, and ask
for a scrip for Tamiflu.
- Now is the time to lay in a supply of Sambucol (Elderberry
extract.)
- Now is the time to lay in supplies of hand sanitizer (with
aloe) and latex gloves--or nitrile gloves for those with latex allergies
- Now is the time to stock up on Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Guaifenesin
expectorant
- Now is the time to buy a couple of Bag
Valve Masks
- And lastly, for this and umpteen other contingencies, now is
the time to acquire an honest one year supply of storage food (or more) for
your family. Buy some extra, for charity.
If you wait too long, then those supplies will either be non-existent, or
exorbitantly priced. By the time most of the sheeple think
this through (or have it explained to them by the talking heads on the Idiot
Box), you will have long since "topped off" your preps. But not
if you hesitate. As my friend Bob in Tennessee is fond of saying: "Panic
now, and avoid the rush."
Mark my words: A true pandemic will disrupt supply chains,
starting with relatively exotic items (such as antivirals), but eventually
working down to basic commodities. Be ready.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America's Emergency Medical Services »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO: Is This The Calm Before The Storm?
NYC Toddler Death, Adult In Missouri Raise Swine Flu Concerns
CDC: Not Out of the Flu Woods Yet
Swine Flu vs. Bird Flu: Which Is The Greater Pandemic Threat?
« Letter Re: Diverters and Pre-Filters for Roof Rainwater Catchment |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Into the Maelstrom, and a Refuge on the Far Side
For the past few weeks I've let the news headlines speak for themselves,
but I now feel convicted to comment on the deteriorating economic conditions.
The global economy in general, and the economies of the English-speaking
nations in particular are in deep, deep trouble. A massive credit bubble has
popped,
and all efforts to re-inflate it have failed. National congresses and
parliaments, are throwing trillions at the problem, but they have done no good.
The policy wonks in government, and their cronies at the central banks are
essentially clueless.
Their uniform reaction to each failed "stimulus" policy seems to
be: "Well,
that money creation didn't work, so it obviously wasn't enough!" This
is something akin to a frustrated Emergency Room doctor, trying to resuscitate
an obese cardio patient that has
suffered a massive myocardial infarction. This fat blob lays torpid on the
gurney, with a"flat-lined" heart monitor. The first
three
attempts to revive the patient didn't work, so all that the doctor can think
to do is keep increasing the voltage and slap on the paddles again. Whether
the
doctor
is Ben Casey, or Ben Bernanke, doesn't matter. All attempts to revive the
patient with the tools at hand have failed.
As I mentioned in a
recent interview with a German journalist, the central banks are using the
public treasuries to attempt to re-inflate the credit bubble. This will only
make the situation worse, and it will most likely turn the recession instead
into a lengthy and deep depression. We are witnessing a complete meltdown of
the global credit system. More credit is not the solution, and in fact
loose
credit via artificially low interest rates was actually the cause of the problem.
In
my estimation, the only genuine long term solution to the continuing boom-bust
cycle is to do away with fractional reserve
banking. What we needed instead is traditional warehouse banking (without interest),
and currencies that are fully-backed (1-for-1 redeemable) in gold and silver.
(The only difficulty there might be the eventual drift in the ratio of the
relative values of silver and gold.) Another part of the solution is in the
creation of private credit clearing circles. It is noteworthy that private
credit clearing has been done successfully by WIR
Bank in Switzerland, for more than 60 years.
On a personal level, I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers get ready for the
worst. Be prepared to hunker through a depression that may last a decade.
As I've written before, we are are likely to see general price deflation for
a
couple of years followed by a nasty bout of high inflation. The latter will
come once the huge cash injections
work their way through the economy. Let me explain: Currently, bankers are
terrified of risk, so they are refusing to lend. But eventually, realizing
that because
of Treasury loan guarantees that have come hand-in-hand with the Mother of
All Bailouts (MOAB), most bank lending will no longer have any risk or real
consequences. So they
will begin to lend money lavishly. The trillions of dollars in new
"out of thin air" money in circulation will benefit from the
multiplier effect, and mass inflation will ensue.
Given the misguided government intervention that is perpetuating widespread
malinvestment, I can foresee many years of trouble ahead. Don't consider
any of the following to be firm predictions, but here are some possibilities
for
the next decade, in brief:
- Declining residential real estate prices, perhaps as much another 50%
in some markets
- Declining commercial real estate prices, perhaps as much another 65% in
some markets
- A chronically weak consumer market.
- Very few retail stores will prosper--mainly just
"second hand" sellers.
- A substantially higher personal savings rate
- Huge corporate layoffs, resulting in a high unemployment rate
- High property crime rates, characterized by waves of home invasion robberies
in the cities and suburbs.
- Further spikes in the foreclosure rate, most notably in 2011.
- Higher taxes and fees at all levels, as legislators scramble to make up
for lost revenue
- Huge new "make work" programs similar to the WPA and CCC in the 1930s
- Severe restrictions on expatriation of currency, precious metals, and
gemstones
- More frequent and larger bank failures,and possibly some bank runs
- Major dislocation, as millions of out of work families move to find work
or move in with relatives that still have reliable income
- Crowded colleges and universities, as out of work young people gamble
on increasing their marketable skills
- The military "full up", and turning away thousands of would-be enlistees
- Huge pension fund failures, both private and public.
- Huge municipal bond failures
- Drastically scaled-back city, county, and state services--including police
and fire departments
- A stock market roller coaster ride, with multiple "sucker" rallies
- Enormous over the counter (OTC)
derivatives failures with many counterparty risks not revealed until post-facto (post-schumero)
- Employment benefits and perquisites scaled back drastically
- Collapsing prices for fine art collectibles, vintage wines, vintage cars,
and other luxury goods.
- Spectacular hedge fund failures
- Traumatic bankruptcies for airlines, auto makers, newspapers, truck manufacturers,
cruise lines, aircraft makers, and many other industries
- Many major department store chains merging or going out of business
- Consumer price deflation, followed by high inflation, with multiple currency
changes
- Wage and price controls
- A nationalized health care system
- Tighter immigration controls
- A continuing and ever-expanding Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
- A few bright spots in the economy may include entertainment, firearms,
home security, precious metals, storage companies, some aspects of healthcare,
and gardening/home canning products
In summary, we are headed into some very bad times. Be ready to hunker down
and be able to fend for yourself.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Stocking Up on Prescription Medicines »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO
May Raise Flu Level--Japanese Cases Leap
Japan
Reports 173 Swine Flu Cases, Closes Schools
WHO:
No Swine Flu Vaccine Available For Months
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Prince of Wales Island, Alaska as a Retreat Locale? »
Mexican Flu Update:
CDC:
Up to 100,000 Are Probably Infected in US US Deaths at five, all reportedly
with underlying health problems. Globally, 7,000 (which means many more cases
than have been confirmed)
Swine
Flu Cases Continue to Rise But No Pandemic Called Yet "Fukuda notes
a pandemic has nothing to do with the severity of the disease, but rather with
its geographic spread."
Avian Flu Beaten By Cold Noses
WHO
eyes swine flu transmission rates, new vaccine
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Which Form of Precious Metals? »
Adios to Naish Piazza, But Perhaps Not to Front Sight
This news article was published yesterday: Business
as Usual? Front Sight Assets Seized. Please take the time to read it. I
haven't yet been in touch with the new management at Front Sight to get any
additional details.
Last night, I dismissively posted a piece to SurvivalBlog, castigating the
plaintiffs in this case. But then I spent several hours later last night doing
web searches
about
the
various
Front Sight lawsuits, and it was an eye opener. Up until yesterday,
I had thought that only one of the lawsuits
had any merit, and that Naish Piazza was merely a convenient target for "deep
pocket" lawsuits. Please forgive
me for
not
taking
the time to do this research before! I can now see that Naish Piazza had indeed
been doing business unethically. I'll be removing the Front Sight
ads from my web site, and will discontinue using Front Sight course certificates
as writing contest prizes.
I won't promote Front Sight again unless or until
it can be established that A.) Naish Piazza has no influence whatsoever with
the
new
Front Sight
management
and
will not
profit
from the operation, and B.) The existing Front Sight course certificates
will be honored by the new court-appointed management.
Please accept my humble apologies for my lack of due diligence about one of
my advertisers.
I have no idea about what will happen with the course schedule
at Front Sight, and the status of the Front Sight course certificates that
are presently in circulation.
I will post details as soon as they become available. I must mention
that none of the preceding comments detract from the reputation of the outstanding
staff at Front
Sight,
and the quality of the training. It is still one of the premier firearms schools
in
the country,
and I still highly recommend them.
As for the current round of the SurvivalBlog writing
contest
that was to have had a pair of Front Sight course certificates as the "first
prize", I will be substituting other prizes.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: "Patriots" Book Sighting in Downtown Chicago »
Mexican Flu Update:
Swine
Flu Spreads to More Countries
Australian
Research Says Swine Flu May Be Result of "Human Error";
CDC Investigates Claim
I noticed that the excellent Flu Wiki
web site has been updated and expanded.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Ideas for Home-Based Businesses? »
Mexican Flu Update:
China Confirms First Mainland Case of Swine Flu
Swine Flu Tally 29 Countries, 4,379 Cases
CDC: Flu Numbers Represent a Very Great Underestimation
Swine Flu is as Severe as 1957 Pandemic, Two Million Deaths
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: A Practical Tip on Using Roof Catchment Rainwater »
Mexican Flu Update:
Top
Flu Expert Warns of a Swine-Bird Flu Mix
12
More Swine Flu Cases Confirmed in Massachusetts
First Flu Death in Canada; US Cases Rise
Mexico Deaths; Cases Higher than Reported
Swine
Flu May Be More Infectious than Thought
Swine Flu Moments and Decisions Lie Ahead
WHO
Reports Big Jump in Worldwide Swine Flu Cases 3,440 Cases, 29 Countries,
48
Deaths
Japan, Oz Confirm First Cases of Swine Flu
Swine Flu Lacks 1918 Killer Traits (So Far)
US, Costa Rica Flu Deaths Mexico has suspected upswing in cases, delaying
school reopening in six states
Number of American Flu Cases Overtake Mexico's; Now Almost 3,000
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Deer Ticks - The Threat Within Your Perimeter »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO Says Up to Two Billion Will Get Swine Flu
Swine Flu: A Survivor's Tale
Swine Flu Kills
30-Something Woman in Texas (First US Citizen Casualty)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Concerns About Toxicity in Water From Roof Catchment Rainwater »
Mexican Flu Update:
Heather sent a link to an article was featured in Seven Days (an
ultra-liberal newspaper in Burlington, Vermont: The
Pandemic Pantry; Stocking up on staples, just in case. Heather's comment: "I
think this article illustrates the fact that the preparedness mindset
is starting to reach the mainstream. Maybe the sheeple are beginning
to catch on? The article on the side talks about the LDS Church.
While I have theological disagreements with the LDS I think their food storage
program is outstanding."
KAF sent us this: Another
Swine Bug Raises Scientists' Concerns. KAF's comment: "This is particularly
disturbing. When Egypt began mass slaughtering the pigs, I thought they
were mad. Now I am wondering if perhaps they knew something we are just
finding
evidence of? "
Via K.J.'s e-mail: Confirmed
US swine flu cases rises to 896
From Tricia: WHO:
Up to 2 billion people might get swine flu
Decision on Flu Vaccine Looms
Does WHO need
to declare flu a full pandemic? (Thanks to Ray V. for the link.)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Expanding the Family Larder with Coupon Shopping »
Mexican Flu Update:
Second strain of flu may complicate picture-study
U.S. reports 642 new H1N1 flu cases
What's wrong with this picture? Teacher
Tests Negative for Swine Flu but Then
She Dies of the Flu
This was linked at the Drudge Report: CDC: US public at risk from complacency
over
flu
« Bicycles in War, a Book Review by by Michael Z. Williamson |Main| More About Depression Proof Jobs--Consider the Three Ks »
Letter Re: Gun Show Report--A Window of Opportunity?
Jim,
On Sunday, I attended what is billed as the largest gun show in North Carolina
and thought you and your readers might appreciate an update.
What I saw lead me to believe that supplies of black rifles and magazines are
catching back up to demand but that ammunition and reloading components remain
in short supply -- especially primers.
When I attended the November show, I had to wait in line 30 minutes or so just
to get in. I heard the March show had a two hour wait. Today, there was no
wait at all. It was crowded inside, but not jammed like the first post-election
show. Still, a healthy amount of business was being conducted, far more than
two years ago when I last attended as a dealer.
My first stop was to pick up the smokeless powder that I use to load .223.
It was sold out at my normal dealer. They had a big sign that said "No
Primers." I
found another dealer and bought two pounds. The price was reasonable. He had
only magnum pistol primers in stock. He told me the price as $48 per thousand,
but he expected it to settle back down in three months. I did not see any other
primers in the entire show. Several folks were selling bags of 100 pieces of
brass, but no one was selling 1,000 piece bags of it
or other large lots, and prices were up. So brass and primers remain in short
supply. Possibly it is all going to commercial ammunition production.
I was surprised to see that there were lots of new black rifles available --
more than I had expected. There were plenty of AR-15s well as AR uppers and
lowers. Despite wider availability, prices remain high. The cheapest plain
vanilla AR-15 that I saw was $1,080, with most guns starting at $1,200 and
anything with an adjustable buttstock and rails instead of the older forearm
starting
at around $1,600. In fact, I would say $1,600 was the average price for a Bushmaster
or a S&W M&P. Of course, there were still $3,000 guns for sale, but
no one was showing much interest.
Stripped lowers from the lesser-known manufacturers were going for about $139
and full lowers with an adjustable buttstock from Rock River Arms were $359.
I was looking for a spare bolt and bolt carrier, but never found one. I also
saw that part kits for lowers were in short supply. So if you are planning
on piecing together a gun, it might make more sense just to buy one complete.
You could wait weeks for parts and possibly spend even more when all is said
and done.
AK-47s were widely available, as were the Ruger Mini-14 and Mini-30. AKs were
running in the $600 and up range while SKSes were closing in on $400. A CETME
rifle with a Century Arms receiver that cost $300 five years ago was not going
for a shockingly high $1,295. I only saw one Springfield Armory M1A. It had
a stainless steel barrel and was $1,695. FALs were scarce and at least as pricey.
Based on this show, magazines seem to be back to reasonable availability. Used
AR-15 magazines were $9. New .223 alloy magazines from C-Products or DPMS were
starting at $15 at most sellers. MagPul polymer magazines were $25 to $29,
depending on the model. They were some available, but limited quantities.
Pistol dealers were doing a very robust trade. I saw many more people buying
pistols than I did long guns. There were dealers with 20 tables just lined
up with Glocks, Springfield Armory pistols, SIGs, Smith and Wessons, Kahrs,
Kel-Tecs and just about anything else you could see. Every pistol dealer had
people sitting in chairs filing out paperwork.
Rifle ammunition was in decent supply. I saw at least three dealers that had
stacks of 1,000 round cases of new, commercial .223/5.56 from Federal XM193
and/or PMC for $459 and up. Many others had Wolf, Bear or other Russian or
Eastern European ammo. There were also folks selling "remanufactured" ammo
-- 500 in a .30 caliber ammo can for $275. Since this was the second day of
the show and near the end, I was surprised at this availability -- all the
anecdotal evidence I had heard lead me to believe cases of .223 would be sold
out. .308 ammo was harder to come by, with very little domestic production
available. There was a moderate supply of Russian calibers and one guy had
a pallet of 8mm [Mauser] that didn't seem to be selling.
Pistol ammunition was much more scarce than rifle ammo, especially in common
calibers. I saw only one dealer with .380 (for $35 a box) and only a few with
9mm. Dealers
had signs saying "No 9mm" or "No .45 ACP." Self defense
ammo with a good hollow point, such as Gold Dot or Ranger SXT were going
for $45 or $50 for a box of 50 rounds. There was more .357 and .40 [S&W]
and good supplies
of less common calibers like .44 Special. I only saw one dealer with bricks
of 1,000 .22 LRs, but plenty were selling the small 50 or 100 round boxes.
If this one show is any example, I would say that the industry is doing a good
job or meeting the increased demand for firearms, albeit at the expense of
the secondary market. Demand remains high, but is down from the surge in the
months immediately following the election, and supply is now catching
up. The
threat of additional legislation, assault weapon bans and magazine bans remains
and is likely to grow rather than recede. As a result, this may be a good window
of opportunity to buy a new firearm. While it is possible prices will drop
if we reach an over supply situation, I personally think that is unlikely in
the next two or three years unless the Republicans win an awful lot of seats
in the next congressional election.
The strong sales of pistols and lack of availability in pistol caliber ammunition
leads me to believe that many people are worried about rising crime and are
arming themselves. This is consistent with the up tick in people taking concealed
carry courses. One has to wonder if the same lines that produced pistol ammo
have been converted over to rifle calibers and if we are destined to see shortages
in one or the other for some time to come.
Finally, the recent sales explosion in firearms and the sudden lack of availability
in the market should be a lesson to anyone sitting on the survival fence. Do
not put off your preparations any longer. A sudden change can suck all the
supplies out of the pipeline and result in months of backorders for long term
storage food, water filters, medical supplies, etc. The just-in-time supply
situation is a precarious one and any small shock can upset the balance, resulting
in shortages and price increases. - Captain
Dave
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Bicycles in War, a Book Review by by Michael Z. Williamson »
Mexican Flu Update:
As the H1N1 flu spreads across
the nation and around
the globe, the key question seems to be: It the
flu is spreading this quickly in warm weather, then what will it do next
winter, when people are generally in closer proximity, indoors? The CDC has
vowed to "...continue to get ready for a possible pandemic in the fall."
Clearly,
prudence dictates that we be well-prepared,
so stock up!
The latest flu headlines:
Jim S. suggested
a video from an academic on the
implications of H1N1 hitting Phase 5.
Chan
hits back at WHO critics. (Thanks to Greg C. for the link.)
At Bloomberg: Swine
Flu May Merge with Other Flu Viruses, CDC Says
Linked at Drudge: Mexico to resume business, pork row erupts
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Responding to a CBRNE Event, by J. Paramedic »
Mexican Flu Update:
Reader RG in Arizona recommended this article: Scientists
dig for lessons from past pandemics
Mexico: No New Swine Flu Deaths; Cases Up to 443
UK: Supermarkets Prepare For Panic Buying
Why
the Flu Can Never Be Eradicated
CDC Current Statistics 21
states, 160 cases, 1 death ("officially")
More Schools Shut As Swine Flu Spreads (430 schools) "The government
issued new guidance for schools with confirmed cases, saying they should close
for at least 14 days because children can be contagious for
seven to 10 days from when they get sick. That means parents can expect to have
children at home for longer than previously thought."
In California, Cases Suggest Border Origin
More
on the Latest Three Bank Takeovers
H1N1
(Swine) Flu Cases in 15 Countries China, Hong Kong, Denmark confirm outbreaks.
Now in 15 countries. "The regions
hardest hit are in the western hemisphere, said a WHO spokesman. We have not
seen sustained human-to-human transmission anywhere outside the Americas
region," he added."
Two
Human-To-Human Transmissions Confirmed in UK "Until now, cases were
confined to people who had themselves recently come
back from Mexico."
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Responding to a CBRNE Event, by J. Paramedic »
Mexican Flu Update:
SurvivalBlog reader Laurence W. wrote to warn that it is premature to post
early estimates that the Mexican Flu is mild. "It may or may not be.
There are not enough data points yet to speak authoritatively.
All one can correctly say is that it is too early to tell." He cited
recent some well-informed discussion threads in the Flu
Wiki Forum and the PlanForPandemic.com
Forum.
Reader Laura C. recommended visiting the US
Archives Online Exhibit of 1918 Flu.
Photographs and Letters.
141
Cases, 19 States "The World Health Organization is warning of an
imminent pandemic because scientists cannot predict what a brand-new virus
might do. A key concern is whether
this spring outbreak will surge again in the fall."
Farmers Fear Pigs Might Get Flu from Us
Swine Flu Originated on California Border?
Toddler Who Died in Texas Visited Houston Mall Before Onset of Symptoms
Swine Flu Starting to Look Less Threatening
First Genetic Analysis of Swine Flu Reveals Potency
Confirmed Number of Global Swine Flu Cases: 367 and Counting
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Six Letters Re: Adapting Family Food Storage for Gluten Intolerance »
Mexican Flu Update:
The first really good news on the flu outbreak came yesterday: Scientists
See this Flu Strain as Relatively Mild. I am hopeful that the current strain
won't mutate into something more inimical. But be sure to be
well prepared, and get in the habit of frequent
hand washing, regardless.OBTW, if I were in a position of influence, I'd recommend
that the custom of handshaking be temporarily replaced with saluting, as was
done
during the 1918 Spanish
Flu Pandemic. (But alas, these days some segments of society might see that
as
overly militaristic
and politically incorrect.)
Reader Pat M. suggested an
interesting article in Science Daily on social isolation to prevent
the spread of influenza.
OBTW, to minimize "casual
contact",
I recommend curtailing social events, and shifting to family wilderness activities
such
as hiking
and rock hounding.
If
you are
a
target
shooter, instead of going to public ranges do your shooting on
remote BLM land, or on private land (with permission.)
The latest flu headlines:
The Binder sent us a link to a Newsweek article that suggests that
the number of flu cases may be under-reported in Mexico: City
of Fear; How the swine flu is terrorizing Mexico's capital. An on-scene report.
Queensland
residents told to stockpile food amid flu fear
WHO
to Stop Using Term "Swine Flu" to Protect Pigs
Vaccine Promised as US Cases Passes 100
More than 40 Probable Cases in Illinois
48 Confirmed Cases in New York State
Three New Cases Confirmed in Britain
Swine Flu Spreads to 11 States, 100 Schools Closed
Pandemic of Panic
E-mail From Trucker to Steve Quayle
Government Issues Guidance on Facility Closure: School Dismissal and Childcare
More
Than 300 Schools Now Closed in US "Closing a school alone won't stop
community spread. "If a school is
closed, it's not closed so kids can go out to the mall or go out to the community
at
large," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said. "Keep
your young ones at home."
Hong Kong Confirms Asia's First Case of Swine Flu (now known as H1N1) Detected
in Mexican man who had come from Shanghai.
Security Agent Likely Caught Swine Flu on Trip with Obama
NYC Mayor Says Many Sick People Not Tested, Number of Cases Probably Higher
Doctor in Washington State Saw 22 Patients Before Falling Ill
Ft. Worth: Mayfest, Other Events Cancelled Over Flu Concerns
Harvard Medical School Cancels Classes Over Possible Swine Flu
« SurvivalBlog Reader Survey Results: Conveniently Bypassed Areas |Main| Note from JWR: »
Mexican Flu Update
I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers seriously think through the implications
of successive waves of Mexican Flu sweeping around the globe for the next three
years. From
what we've already seen of its virulence after the normal "cold
and flu season", then the next couple of winters could bring very high
rates of infection
and overwhelm the healthcare system. Please take the time to watch Dr.
Henry Niman of
Recombinomics discussing"Swine" flu. His projections
are disturbing, to say the least! Think this through folks, on a macro scale:
How would a pandemic impact your work? Commuting? Grocery shopping? Church activities?
School? (If you are not yet homeschooling, then you should plan on it!) Your
vacation
plans? Summer camp? Family holiday get-togethers? Sports and cultural
events? These
implications
are enormous. As SurvivalBlog readers, you are already
accustomed
to contemplating
abstractions
at this level and getting "ahead of the power curve." You also likely
have
the
benefit
of
superior
training
and
a deep
larder.
And, hopefully,
many
of you took my advice three years ago, and began to develop home-based businesses.
(Mail order businesses will undoubtedly flourish, as people shun face-to-face
sales.)
There are no guarantees, but you have a better chance
of getting through this
unscathed than most of your neighbors. Hopefully, all of you read the backgrounder
on family flu preparedness, that I've had posted here are SurvivalBlog
for more
than
three
years.
But
if
not... Now is
time
to make the requisite adjustments to your daily routine and to top
off
your
logistics:
- Now is the time to order several boxes of N95
masks and
rolls of bandage tape (for sealing any mask edge gaps )
- Now is the time to buy a steam
vaporizer (new,
or used -- Try Craig's
List for used ones)
- Now is
the
time to approach
your family doctor, and
ask for a scrip for Tamiflu.
- Now is
the time to
lay in a supply of Sambucol (Elderberry
extract.)
- Now is the time to lay in supplies
of hand sanitizer (with aloe) and latex gloves--or nitrile gloves for
those with latex allergies
- Now is the time to stock up on Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Guaifenesin expectorant
- Now is the time to buy a couple of Bag Valve Masks
- And
lastly, for
this and umpteen other contingencies, now is
the time to acquire an honest one year supply of storage food (or more) for
your family. Buy some extra, for charity.
If
you
wait
too long,
then those
supplies
will
either be
non-existent,
or exorbitantly priced. By the time most of the sheeple think
this through (or have it explained to them by the talking heads on the
Idiot Box),
you will have long since "topped off" your
preps. But
not if you
hesitate. As my friend Bob in Tennessee is fond of saying: "Panic
now, and avoid the rush." [The Memsahib adds: If you've been consistently
panicking since 1999 with no ill effects on your spouse's mental health,
then give yourself a pat on the back.]
Mark my words: A true pandemic will disrupt supply chains,
starting with relatively exotic items (such as antivirals), but eventually
working down to basic commodities. Be ready.
Today's flu headlines:
Panic buying and government distrust in Mexico
1st
US Swine Flu Death: Toddler in Texas (visiting from Mexico) Flu also
now in Austria and Germany
"Patient Zero" may have been found. A 5-yr-old who lives near a pig
farm.
Access to Safe, Reliable Food Essential in Pandemic
Swine Flu Tracking On-Line
Ron Paul: Putting Swine Flu in Perspective
Dr. Len Horowitz: Mexican Flu Outbreak 2009 Special Report
Swine Flu Worries Shut Down Three Private California Schools
US Swine Flu Cases Now Officially at 68
Schwarzenegger, Obama Boosts Efforts Against Swine Flu
WHO Warns Swine Flu Threatening to Become Pandemic
World Takes Drastic Steps to Contain Swine Flu
Biden Tells Family to Stay Off Planes, Subways
Mexico Shuts Nonessential Services Amid Swine Flu
Asia Suspected Swine Flu Cases Rise
All Ft. Worth, Texas, Schools Closed Over Flu Fears
49 Confirmed Cases in NYC
CDC Latest Facts and Figures Re Swine Flu
Obama: US May Close Schools to Battle Swine Flu
Swine Flu Could Threaten Millions with Other Diseases
« Economics and Investing: |Main| SurvivalBlog Reader Survey Results: Conveniently Bypassed Areas »
Letter Re: Life Under South Africa's Gun Laws, by Joe Ordinary Voortrekker
This article is a response to a large and glaring preparedness
dilemma for myself. Being a law abiding citizen I cannot willfully put myself
or my family into a situation where we can be held legally liable for the commission
of a crime. If I had a ‘run-in’ with the law because
of my beliefs on firearms and freedom, it can and will put my family at risk.
Unfortunately we live in a country where the liberty of its
citizens is at the mercy of the State. South Africa is for all intents and
purposes a ‘Free and democratic’ country. However, our government
is an openly socialist government. They require the dependency of its citizens,
every law that is passed is to ensure a more conformist and dependant populace.
One of the laws that was passed was the Firearms
Control Act of 2000. It is
another of a long stream of attempts to remove the right to bear arms in South
Africa. This act and the previous one allow for highly controlled and restrictive
legislation. Below, I will give a brief overview of the pertinent points as
it relates to the rights of individuals to keep arms. It is however, the root
of my dilemma. No
matter how many or types arms I would like to possess, or what types and amounts
of ammunition I would like to keep, I am controlled by the State every step
of the way with 101 different [regulatory details.]
Before I get to South African firearms legislation, let me give you some insight
as to where my thoughts stem from. Basically, after reading through the Profiles
of survivalists on SurvivalBlog,
and the recommendations of the most esteemed JWR. I could see no way that I
could become ‘squared away’ on the arms and ammunition side. Our
laws in South Africa are just too restrictive! That however has changed, as
there is a way. All it took was a little bit of lateral thinking and a copy
of "Patriots"
.
Well actually the other way around, the lateral thought came after the second
reading of "Patriots".
In this article I’m going to talk from a South African perspective and
relate this information from our view. What I am hoping and intending is that
it will get people to think through their firearm purchases and utilize every aspect or at least as many aspects as possible of the law
for their own benefit. The South Africa situation may or may not apply to you,
however this article is not intended for the US readers of SurvivalBlog, but more to people that live elsewhere and to give
them the hope that there is potentially a way. The idea is to think laterally
and use the rights that have been allowed you in every way possible.
Here is a brief synopsis of how the South African Firearms laws are applicable
to ordinary citizens. For the ‘casual’ owner, people are restricted
to a maximum of four firearms. The breakdown is as follows:
- One Handgun
- One Shotgun
- One Rifle (Not Semi Auto) (With associated proof that you hunt)
- One Casual Sports
shooting firearm ([another] one of any
of the above)
Only one of the first two (Handgun/Shotgun) may be designated a self defense
firearm and there are legal ramifications if you shoot someone in self defense
with another firearm. If you are a dedicated
sportsman/hunter/collector you are able to increase your firearm collection,
but always under strict monitoring and conditions. And you have to have proof,
proof and more proof.
Also we need to re-license every 2, 5, or 10 years depending on the type of
license. Along with additional costs, competency tests, fingerprints, home/safe
inspection and vetting of you by your family and/or neighbors, etc etc ad nauseam.
The way that I see this is that the Government wants the public disarmed, and
they are making it harder and harder and a real pain in the sphincter to re-apply
for their licenses, so most guys just give up and hand their weapons in.
With Ammo, you may only possess a maximum 200 rounds of any of the calibers
that you are licensed for. Possession of a single [loaded] round of any other
caliber is illegal unless you are a licensed cartridge collector. (This is
another painful exercise, and will not assist in stockpiling ammo) As for components.
Bullets, brass cartridge cases and magazines are not regulated. However primers
and propellants are. With primers, no more than 2,400 of any size. In addition,
so are some spare parts, barrels, sears etc. (BTW, a spare barrel is
considered a firearm in South Africa [, since pressurized gun parts are regulated.
Effectively, the barrel rather than the frame or receiver is considered the
"firearm"])
As an aside, I have watched the debate on concealed carry in the US with interest.
In South Africa we are legally bound to carry [handguns] 100% concealed, no
open carry, unless you are in Law Enforcement. So the question is with laws
like this, how does one stockpile firearms and ammo? And what is the best way
to get the maximum out of the minimum we are allowed to possess.
The only way that this can be done is to prepare for possible scenarios that
may develop in the future. This is the tack that we have taken:
1) Get legally
diversified with the correct calibers.
2) Keep only calibers that allow you to maximize your long term defense potential
3) Stock up on unregulated items that will allow for barter even if it’s
not one of your calibers.
Okay, so I just mentioned that one needs to have the correct calibers This
is, as everyone knows a very subjective statement. So how did we decide what
the correct calibers are? In a scenario where there is true TEOTWAWKI then
there will be a source of readily available arms and ammunition. Courtesy
of our Law Enforcement and Military. Looking at these services, we see that
the following calibers are the most common.
12 Gauge Shotgun,
5.56 NATO (AKA .223)
7.62 NATO (AKA .308)
and 9mm Parabellum (9x19mm ["Luger"]).
My logic and methodology here is to maximize my options in terms of usable
and obtainable ‘components’ while still keeping within the framework
of our legal system. I have also decided that we will not
apply for further weapons licenses as I do not want nor require the additional
infringement of my privacy nor the ‘red flags’ that
come with owning a ‘large’ firearms collection. So based on the
highest
OPSEC possible in this situation, here is what we have done.
For a handguns I have chosen a .45 ACP my wife a 9mm Parabellum
For shotguns we have both chosen 12 gauge Pump actions
For casual Sports Shooting my wife has chosen a .22 LR pistol, and I have a
scoped and suppressed .22LR rifle.
For hunting rifles I have chosen a .308 and my wife a .223
So our choices above keep us [both] at the four gun limit, no additional background
checks and gives us a broad spread of calibers that will allow us to store
primers, powder, and some ammunition.
On the unregulated side we have and are currently stocking up on the following.
Virgin and fired brass in all of the above calibers, in addition to this we
add any fired brass that we can scrounge. Various design and weight
bullet moulds with the same methodology, factory made bullets in rifle and
handgun
calibers. Reloading dies, in any and all calibers that we can get. However
we do concentrate on the dies for the brass
that we have. (There is no point in having dies and no brass.) Cleaning kits
and components, and lead and tin stocks, as well as reloading presses. For
[rifle and pistol] brass
reloading,
we have standardized on Lee brand turret presses
and the single stage RCBS Rockchucker as most can be had at very reasonable
prices on the secondhand market here. For shotgun shell reloading we have standardized
on Lee Load All.
Now the logic behind this. If ever the SHTF in a big way, we will be able to
drive off most attacks, however if this degenerates into an extended and protracted “Patriots"-like
scenario we should have all of the ‘makings’ to use captured weaponry
as well as being able to supply and reproduce the correct ammo for such captured
weaponry.
There are a few points to remember.
1.) Pressure and primer differences in military and civilian ammo. Know
what
you are doing or don’t do it!
2.) Always stay within the law, while the law is the law. Becoming an illegal ‘arms
hoarder’ will get you into a heap of trouble, which
only leaves your family at risk.
3.) OPSEC, OPSEC, OPSEC don’t brag around the braai (Barbecue) as to what
you
will do when TSHTF. Or what you have stockpiled, hidden, buried etc. Personally,
I find that very few people in South Africa have a preparedness/survivalist mentality.
If you start discussing what you are doing be circumspect in every
aspect.
Finally, as an aside, Just this last week we were given detailed information
about
the preps of a ‘new age’ religious Doomer ("The
sky is going to fall in 2012") that lives just outside a small town over
400 kilometers away. This person has told her family about her preps and this
news has
now traveled all over the country. We now know almost everything that she
has
done
including evacuation and storage details. The family (rightly?) believes she
is
a nutcase and actively ridicule her preps. [An OPSEC breach like this presents]
a very
scary
scenario.
« Letter Re: Adapting Family Food Storage for Gluten Intolerance |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Mexican Flu Update
Cheryl wrote to mention an article that described using Vitamin
D to prevent a cytokine storm The dose is 2,000
units of Vitamin D per kilogram (1 kg = 2.2046 pounds), once per day. Thus,
for an average 150 lb. adult, the dose would be would
be
136,060 units of Vitamin D. This is to be taken for three days. (I.U. Equivalence:
50,000
units = 1.25 mg) My Strong Proviso: The usual fat soluble vitamin (KADE)
warnings apply. Don't over-do a good thing. You should discuss vitamin D testing and replacement with your physician before acting on that doctor's recommendations! Vitamin D supplement limits vary depending on body weight, diet, and exposure to the sun.
Today's flu headlines:
WHO
pandemic threat level raised to 5 out of 6
New Flu Strain is a Genetic Mix
First
US Swine Flu Death, Cases Now in 10 States
France urges Mexican flight ban
Cuba Halts Mexico Travel (First Country to Do So)
Pandemic Risk Grows as New Cases Emerge US cases now at 64, Mexico 152 dead,
over 2,000 infected
US Flu Deaths Seem Likely as Outbreak Spreads
Scary Advertisements From 1976 Flu Outbreak Today they tell us to stay calm
Mexico
City Mayor: One more death, toll stabilizing
« My Experience with a Field Gear Invention, by Mike B. |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Mexican Flu Update
It has been reported that the incubation period for the Mexican Swine
Flu is 4-to-5 days, and perhaps as long as 10 days in children.
That's the "hot" period when someone infected is shedding the virus.
This is bad news for epidemiologists. With modern air travel, this means that
there
is
probably no stopping the flu from making it to the far reaches of the globe.
So now, all that we can do is wait, watch, and pray that it doesn't mutate into
a more lethal strain. Barring that, my guesstimate is that it will be every country
with a couple of months. The crucial time will be next
winter
in
the
Northern Hemisphere. It is now Fall in the Southern Hemisphere, so their upcoming
flu season might give us a preview of what
will
happen up here, next year. Are you ready
to hunker down when the flu hits your
town?
Here are today's flu headlines:
The
Government’s Forecast if Flu Problem Explodes: Two Million Americans
Die "Ninety million citizens would get sick. The economy would shut
down."
DHS Sets Guidelines For Possible Swine Flu Quarantines
Official:
US Flu Victims May Be Infecting Others Confirmed cases in Asia Pacific
and New Zealand
Schumer
Bragged About Cutting Pandemic Funding (Well, now we are all in Deep
Schumer.)
Swine Flu More Dangerous than Bird Flu
Why
Does the Swine Flu Kill Healthy People?
WHO Revises Scale For Pandemic Alerts
Mexican
Reports: Flu Much Worse Than Reported "The truth is that anti-viral
treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses.
It is a great fear among the staff. The
infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff. There is a sense
of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting
to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that
mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least
in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily,
and it has been going on for more than three weeks." - Dr. Antonio Chavez
Two Swine Flu Cases Confirmed in Scotland
Swine Flu Boosts Demand For Face Masks, Antivirals
Swine
Flu Warning Raised as Virus Crosses Continents Now at Level 4. Could
become Level 5 in the next few days.
Washingtonians Prepare for Swine Flu
Flu: Worst Case Scenario
Swine
Flu Epidemic Enters Dangerous New Phase "The virus poses a potentially
grave new threat to the U.S. economy, which was showing tentative early signs
of a recovery. A widespread outbreak could
batter
tourism, food and transportation industries, deepening the recession in the
U.S. and possibly worldwide."
40 Cases of Swine Flu in US to Date (No Deaths)
WHO Confirms Pandemic Alert Level Raised to Level 4
Swine Flu Cases Around the World
Swine
Flu Fears Close Schools in CA, TX, NY
Americans Told to Wear Masks as Swine Flu Spreads Around the World
« Letter Re: Tapping the National Medications Stockpile |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Mexican Flu Update
The death toll in Mexico now at
149, and climbing, with more than 2,000 patients are hospitalized there. Containment
appears unlikely. For a flu to spread this rapidly outside
of the normal
"cold
and flu season"
tells us something about its ferocity. I suspect that we will see multiple
waves of infection, with the worst of them probably being next winter
in the
Northern Hemisphere. Mutations are impossible to predict. The only good news
is that at least in the long term, viruses tend to mutate into less
lethal strains. (The most lethal--a la the Marburg type hemorrhagic
viruses--are so lethal
that the
hosts don't live long enough to pass on the viruses to others. Hence the tendency
for many bugs is to become less virulent. The common cold (acute viral rhinopharyngitis),
it is said, probably started out as a killer, many centuries ago.)
SurvivalBlog Editor at Large Michael
Z. Williamson sent us a link to the first really
practical
article on using N95 masks that I've ever seen, by Tara Smith.
Mentioned a useful CDC background
piece: Antiviral
Drugs and Swine Influenza
Reader Matt J. in Kentucky notes: "Wal-Mart in Louisville, Kentucky is already
out of N95 masks, but the hardware stores like Home Depot and Lowe's have 20-packs
readily available (I bought two 20-packs at Lowe's and one 20-pack at Home Depot."
OBTW, Bob at Ready
Made Resources mentioned that sales have been very brisk, and they are
now nearly out N95 masks, despite buying all that their wholesale
suppliers had
on hand. He also mentioned that their inexpensive full
protective suit ensembles are going fast
Here are some of the day's flu headlines:
World closer to swine flu pandemic
Swine
Flu: Five Things You Need
to Know About the Outbreak Thanks to Dave (at Captain
Dave's) for the link
Texas Closes More Schools as Flu Spreads
Obama:
Flu Matter of Concern Not One of Alarm (yet)
Mexico City Now a Zombie City
Call Your Congressman! US Says Not Testing Travelers From Mexico
Swine
Flu Hits Ernst & Young in Times Square, N.J. Department of Health
Confirms Five Probable Cases
Flashback to 1994: CDC to mix avian, human flu viruses in pandemic study
« Flu and Antibacterials, by David in Israel |Main| Mexican Flu Update »
Letter Re: Tapping the National Medications Stockpile
Jim,
Sunday, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
announced that they would open up the National Stockpile of medications to provide
antivirals to areas
that may need them. This comment is a big clue to the real concern that this
is already getting out of control. The National Stockpile is rarely tapped so
this is a big event and a potential trigger for those out there who need to be
aware. Luckily this year’s human flu was resistant to Tamiflu so there
appears to be stock left, but this is also the end of the season so normal supplies
are low. Relenza is another antiviral that is available and the swine flu is
sensitive too, (at this point). Tamiflu [dosing] is weight-based for children
and Relenza is not indicated for patients less than seven years old. I would
suggest that anyone with significant medical conditions obtain an antiviral prescription
from their friendly doctor now, and not later. Obviously large
cities, especially those with international airport hubs, and those on the border,
or with large migrant populations probably aren’t the best places to be
right now. What triggers a bug out is individualized, but there is a definite
advantage of being in a small town. But even Kansas hasn’t been spared
with this one. With schools being shut down, that forces adult parents to stay
home which causes shortages of employees not only at the mall, but the grocery
store, the shipper, the police station, the hospital, the gas station…etc… Plan
accordingly for any last minute items you need. - Mike the MD
« SurvivalBlog Reader Survey: Conveniently Bypassed Areas |Main| Letter Re: Tapping the National Medications Stockpile »
Flu and Antibacterials, by David in Israel
James
I constantly see recommendations for people to use hand sanitizer especially
every time the flu-de jure becomes a problem. Over my years as a
firefighter/paramedic many of my co-workers used hand sanitizer on a regular
basis, the most frequent
users often ended up with cracked skin and infections or scabs at the corners
of their fingernails. These users even ended up occasionally spreading the
fungus to me and other non antibacterial users due to their compulsive wiping
of antibacterial compounds onto steering wheels and other surfaces.
Your best protection is not to nuke your own protections and hope any bacteria
die, but rather enhance your own systems. Vinegar rubbed onto the hands doesn't
remove your body's protective oils, it also doesn't cause the [drying and]
cracking that alcohol based rubs do. Acidophilus is available in capsule form
which
can be
opened and rubbed onto damp hands, acidophilus is a powerful microscopic security
force that works in symbiosis with your body. I also had a policy of not using
soap but spraying with dilute vinegar after rinsing my hands, sometimes rubbing
in a few drops of olive oil, my hands stayed soft making my wife happy, the
toughened skin stayed tough, and my skin protection layer stayed intact.
Day to day long periods of wearing of latex or nitirile gloves will cause your
hands to crack and dry out. Since you will probably not encounter open puddles
of body fluid by surprise cotton gloves, safety or eye glasses, and a cotton
or better yet a HEPA face mask should help prevent acquiring any airborne hyper-communicative
diseases if you need to go into a public place. Carry nitrile gloves and safety
glasses in case you are called to provide first aid. Be sure to safely remove,
bag, and wash any reusable protection before entering your home or vehicle.
Top attention should be placed on keeping your hands away from your face, especially
the mouth and eyes. When I was a paramedic instructor I had the students hands
dusted with UV-glowing
powder. After class I brought out the black light, nearly everyone's face showed
that they had touched or itched, even knowing that they
would get extra credit for coming up clean.
Unfortunately I never had time to set up a proper scientific study with control
groups, but my experience, and those who followed my advice was generally positive,
most of the antibacterial gel users had hard cracked hands with our resident
black fungus in the cracks and occasional infection at the corners of the nails.
Why didn't the gel users stop? They really believed they were protecting themselves.
As for flu, if you keep yourself properly fed including dark leafy vegetables
and citrus, don't work yourself to exhaustion, keep yourself warm, clean, and
dry and you should be much more resistant, even if this is finally the super
flu that the government has been waiting for all these years. - David in Israel
JWR Adds: I agree that antibacterials are over-used on a
day-to-day basis, but they are appropriate in the short term, when a
true viral killer is stalking the
streets. Many years ago, I heard that mixing 20% (by volume) of aloe vera liquid
with typical methyl alcohol-based antibacterial "hand goop" will prevent
drying
skin. BTW,
I've noticed that some commercial antibacterials are now sold with aloe added,
although I wonder at what ratio.
In addition to disposable gloves, don't overlook the need for glasses with
side protection and disposable booties that can be shed and discarded just
before you get in your car or truck.
Disposable
Tyvek suits are nice, but their use on a daily basis might be prohibitively
expensive
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Sambucol and the Cytokine Storm »
Letter Re: Caught Between OPSEC and a Hard Place
Jim,
A friend of mine had a recent encounter with the police that illustrates the
importance of Operational Security (OPSEC),
even for the tiniest details. My friend is a survivalist and keeps both an SKS (unloaded
but with ammo nearby) and a CZ handgun (loaded) in the cab of his truck.
This is basically
what Boston T. Party and
others recommend: a handgun instantly at the ready and a rifle nearby. My
friend does not have a CCW permit and in Washington State
you must have a permit to have a loaded gun in a vehicle. He was pulled over
while driving on the freeway, and his conversation with the officer who pulled
him over went something like:
Cop: “I pulled you over because you failed to signal when you changed
lanes…”
My Friend: “Oh, that’s odd, I know I used my signal.”
Cop: “…And I see that you have an NRA sticker on the back of
your truck. Do you have any firearms in the vehicle?”
My Friend: “Yes.”
Cop: “Get out, I’m going to search the vehicle.”
After searching and finding the CZ, the cop arrested my friend for having
a concealed weapon without a permit (note that the gun was “concealed” in
the car, not on his person). With my friend locked in the back of the police
car, the cop proceeded to hold the SKS up in the air on the side of the freeway,
checking the chamber to see if it was loaded (while hundreds of people drove
by). I’ll skip the rant about this incident further lowering my already-low
opinion of the Police, and concentrate on the OPSEC implications.
The cop never asked permission to search the vehicle: he informed my friend
that he was going to search. My friend likely did not commit any traffic infraction,
and was probably pulled over just for having an NRA sticker. He is now facing
misdemeanor charges for carrying concealed without a permit; If he is convicted
he will have a criminal record. The CZ has been confiscated and he will never
get it back.
Like many people, my friend did not want to get a CCW permit and put his name
on a government list of people who carry weapons; he saw getting a CCW as a
breach of OPSEC. He chose to exercise his Second Amendment rights despite an
unjust state law and he carried without a permit. If he hadn’t committed
another, tiny breach of OPSEC, he would not have gotten caught. It’s
sad that we’re at the point where even being seen as a supporter of the
NRA has become a breach of OPSEC, and something we must hide from the police.
Because of this incident I will be removing the NRA sticker from my own vehicle
soon. - “Big D” in Washington
JWR Replies: To begin with, your friend handed his exchange
with the officer the wrong way. He could have maintained his privacy and his
Fourth Amendment rights by not answering the officer's question or by changing
the subject, when the officer went on his "fishing expedition." I
am a Christian and I don't believe in bearing false witness, but there is no
Biblical
admonition
about opening one's mouth. In fact, there is just the
opposite: See: Proverbs 18:7: "A fool's mouth is his destruction, and
his lips are the snare
of his
soul."
I
also recommend
the "Don't
Talk to the Police" lecture by Professor James Duane, that
has been mentioned before in SurvivalBlog. I consider it "must" viewing
for teenagers
and adults. I also recommend studying the book You & the
Police!
by Boston
T. Party.
And, yes, it is a sad state of affairs when we have to hide our political
affiliations when traveling public highways.
« Letter Re: Atheism and Choosing Your Neighborhood |Main| Note from JWR: »
The Mexican Flu and You
In the past
24 hours I've received dozens of e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers about the
emerging Mexican Flu. Some news stories have included cryptic comments from
heath officials, implying that the mechanism of infection makes this particular
virus "very difficult to contain." This leads
me to conclude that those infected have a long latency period during which
they are infectious, yet, they do not display frank symptoms. This does not
bode well for any hopes of containing the spread of the virus.
Then we hear a
CDC official stating: "The swine flu virus contains four different
gene segments representing both North American swine and avian influenza, human
flu and a
Eurasian swine
flu." That strikes we as something very peculiar.
The disease is respiratory, and has one strong similarity to the 1918 Spanish Flu: "The
majority were young adults between 25 and 45 years old," said one official
under
the condition of anonymity. Since, young and healthy people with strong immune
systems are the most likely to succumb, this might indicate that the biggest
killer is a cytokine storm--a collapse caused by the human immune
system's over-reaction to a
pathogen.
I strongly recommend that everyone reading this take the
time to re-read my background article on flu self-quarantine and other precautions: Protecting
Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic. The details that I give there are
quite important. Pay special attention to my discussion of the shortage
of hospital
ventilators.
If anyone in your family is immunosuppressed, consider
yourselves on alert. Make your final preparations to hunker down,
immediately.
In the next few days, there is a good chance of wholesale panic, including
some well-publicized "runs" --probably first for hand sanitizer and face masks,
and soon after for bottled
water and groceries. Plan on it.
UPDATE: The BBC News
web page Mexico
flu: Your experiences has some updates posted from individuals
in Mexico City
To summarize, here are some key quotes from a
recent article:
"This outbreak is particularly worrisome because deaths have happened
in at least four different regions of Mexico, and because the victims have
not been vulnerable infants and elderly.
"The most notorious flu pandemic, thought to have killed at least 40 million
people worldwide in 1918-19, also first struck otherwise healthy young adults."
...
"But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the
known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then
cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm,
a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.
"No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear
how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer."
Current statistics show a less than 10% lethality rate, but of course the
first wave of flu victims are getting access to the best medical care available.
If the contagion spreads, sheer numbers will quickly overwhelm hospital
facilities--particularly the number of mechanical ventilators available. So
the lethality rate may rise, even if there is not a viral mutation.
Here
are the latest headlines on the flu, as well as some background pieces. I'll
post
more
links,
as they
become
available.
Swine Flu, Mexico Lung Illness Heighten Pandemic Risk
Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel
Mexico Races to Stop Deadly Flu Virus
Spanish Flu Survivors Remember
Some Facts About Past Flu Pandemics
WHO ready with antivirals to combat swine flu
Possible Swine Flu Outbreak at NYC Prep School
California Expects To Find More New Flu Cases
Swine Flu Jitters Sparks Sell-Off In US Hogs
Swine Flu Resources
Most Mexico fatal flu victims aged between 25-45
Swine
Flu May Be Named Event of ‘International Concern’ by WHO
[A UK] County's masterplan to deal with flu pandemic
« Letter Re: Bicycles as Bug-Out and Utility Vehicles |Main| Letter Re: A Possible Blunder with Bulk-Packed Storage Food »
Letter Re: A.P. Reporter Seeks Newbie Preppers in SoCal for Interview
JWR's Introductory Note: I got the following from a legitimate
reporter that has promised a fair and balanced article. Of course the
usual OPSEC considerations
apply...
Hello.
I am a reporter with The Associated
Press and I am working on a story about
the
growing
number
of
people
taking
steps
to
stock
up on emergency
food,
water and other supplies because of concerns about the recession and the
stability of the networks that keep our grocery stores stocked up and our
power running. I interviewed Jim Rawles last week and he suggested that
I post here to find people
who would be good to talk to for my piece.
I am specifically looking for people who haven't really thought much
about emergency preparedness/survivalism before, but have started to stock
up on supplies recently (say, in the last six months) because of the bad
news on the economy and the financial system. I am based in Southern California,
so I am really looking to talk to folks who live in Southern California – although
I could do interviews by phone with people from out-of-state.
Please contact me at reporting4good@gmail.com if you would be willing to be
interviewed for this story.
Once you contact me, I will respond with my business e-mail and name and other
contact information. I would just rather not put up that information in a general
post that anyone can see.
I look forward to hearing from people soon!
Gillian Flaccus
Associated Press, Orange County Correspondent
« Letter Re: A Flat Tire as Learning Experience, by Rock O. |Main| Letter Re: Transmission of Odors to Bulk-Packed Storage Foods »
Letter Re: Rethinking Uncommon Rifle Chamberings
Mr. Rawles-
I read "Patriots:
A Novel Survival in the Coming Collapse" a
couple of weeks ago and enjoyed it. Thank you.
I wanted to mention: I try to follow conventional wisdom about caliber choices
for SHTF weapons.
Interestingly, in the current ammo shortage, it’s still
somewhat easy to get ammo for oddball calibers. For example, if one needs 7.5x55
Swiss, 7.65x54R Russian or 7.5x54 French, many online dealers have it in stock,
while 9mm, 45 ACP,
12 gauge buckshot, 308, 223, 7.62x39 etc., are very hard to come by. For people
who don’t have the budget to stockpile a lot of
ammo, this may justify keeping at least one [rifle chambered in a] non-standard
caliber in the arsenal. The
bolt action Russian, Swiss and French rifles are relatively inexpensive, sturdy,
and hard hitting. The fact that the ammo is in good supply during a nationwide
ammo shortage is a bonus.
« Letter Re: Why Survivalists Should Buy Local Organic Food |Main| Letter Re: Pedal Power for Electricity Generation and Water Pumping »
Letter Re: The Mexican Drug Wars Come to the United States
Jim,
As the economy gets worse, crime
of this sort will only increase. Small towns
that have secondary and tertiary highways are not immune. Often these secondary
routes
parallel
the primary highways that have the heaviest enforcement which leads the traffickers
to use the secondary routes to evade Law Enforcement. We have had first hand
experience with interstate drug traffickers in our Midwestern town of 1,300
people that has a parallel secondary highway running through it. I shudder
to think what will happen to our borders, cities, and towns when bankrupt states
and cities are forced to confront the stark reality of forced service reductions
due to insufficient revenues. - LEO in the Midwest
« Letter Re: Highly Productive Home Gardens |Main| Note from JWR: »
Cooper's Color Codes and Bugging Out Before the SHTF, by H.I.C.
Colonel Jeff Cooper once wrote that he was born in another country. Born and
raised in the US before the Great Depression, the country of his youth was
no longer.
It had been hijacked by pointy headed socialists with academic degrees and
not a trace of common sense. At 50 years of age I not only agree, but maintain
that the “New America” based upon a globalized economy, Federalized
powers, and an Urban-centered society is dying. Our great country is dying
and our great cities will burn in the funeral pyre.
Most Americans know that survival in our great cities, deserts, and marginal
climate areas of the US would not be possible without continued delivery of
basic Supplies (food and gasoline), Services (water, electrical power, natural
gas), and Civil Order (rule of law, generally accepted currency). What they
may not know is that these great cities have no great food warehouses, no great
fuel tank farms, few electrical power plants, few water storage reservoirs,
and they have disarmed the law abiding public at every turn. These supplies
are transported by thousands of semi trucks, ships, barges, and trains every
single day. If a sudden crisis disrupts transportation, if we lose the use
of our interstate highways or the diesel fuel to transport supplies, everyone
in these cities will either have to leave or they will die.
Recent hurricanes, recessions, and terrorist events are reminders that our
modern society is fragile and that critical supplies, services, and civil order
will likely be interrupted by any major event. Look at what happened to New
Orleans (population 480,000) during Hurricane Katrina. More than half the
population left early, but when the storm hit, tens of thousands either would
not or could
not leave. Now imagine these barbaric conditions in a city like Phoenix
(population 2 million) or Los Angeles (population 10 million). Now imagine
it happening all across
the US if our oil refineries are either destroyed or the world runs out of
crude oil.
Transportation in the US is totally dependent on crude oil and most of this
oil comes from folks who hate us. The supplies underground and our ability
to find new supplies are diminishing and no one knows how much is left. Even
without the potential for a renewed terrorist attack using WMDs, or the long
dreaded west coast mega-quake, our cities will not be sustainable without some
new technology. Renewable power sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal
can produce electricity but do not effectively power transportation. Hopefully
most Americans can be sufficiently motivated to move out the cities with their
families, but those who will not listen must feel.
Should I Stay or Should I Go?
I think it is a common belief by newly awaken survivalist that they can keep
living in a big city until the stuff actually hits the fan and then bug out
with their vehicle and all of the survival gear and prepared food. I am curious,
have any of you actually tried this? Have you taken the time and effort to
load your vehicle with thousands of pounds of guns, ammo, survival gear, and
freeze dried food? Have you then driven through a major city, a long distance
interstate trip, stopped for the night, or had car trouble? And what if you
are forced to bug out without shelter and a considerable amount of food, have
you really improved your chances for survival?
I have and the whole process was a pain in the . I hooked up my one ton
pickup to my 5th wheel trailer, filled it with the guns, ammo, tools, extra
fuel, and food storage, and the rig grossed at 18,000 lbs. Let me tell you
this was not bugging out, this was crawling out. Even powered by a Cummins
Diesel, nothing weighing 9 tons moves quickly or escapes over steep or narrow
roads. I also tried towing an open trailer filled with a tractor and tools
cross country and learned about road trash puncturing trailer tires and criminals
loitering at rest stops and RV parks.
Fortunately, these problems surfaced during normal times when the highways
are open, fuel is available, and I was
the only one freaking out. My experience is telling me that the best response
is to move away from the cities before an event. Move to a more secure area
now. Preposition your survival tools and food storage at a secure site before
the stuff really hits the fan. Then find a way to move there your self.
I have read all the government’s emergency preparedness books talking
about folks pulling together, one big nation singing Kumbaya. But I have
also read the postings from folks who were late evacuating New Orleans. Many
of them were threatened, robbed, and assaulted by their neighbors simply because
they were better prepared. I do not know if this entitlement mentality is really
that widespread, but experience suggests that Americans will get scared and
will act like animals.
Deciding When to Leave; Cooper’s Colors for a Social Crisis.
Jeff Cooper also devised a series of situational awareness colors to allow
his self defense students to make proper decisions and know when to use deadly
force
to protect
their lives and family. Borrowing Cooper’s Colors for a social crisis
I suggest the following:
Condition White) Circa 1981-1988: Following the Vietnam war, Watergate, and
the Iran hostage crisis, the US was ready for a positive change. During the
Reagan years we challenged the Soviet Union and emerged as the world’s
lone supper power. Despite some evidence to the contrary, we felt that we had
no reason to be concerned by terrorism. Paul Volcker tamed inflation by inducing
a severe recession. We all shared the economic pain, then we shared the rewards
of a growing and stable economy combined with low inflation. Social changes
were being made slowly and with participation from the general public. The
Government rarely took violent actions against protesters. Crime was random
and quickly dealt with by law enforcement.
Tough times, but the US government was working for the People.
Condition Yellow) Circa 1989-1998: The US is struck repeatedly by terrorists
at home and abroad. The Government treats this as a criminal manner. The economy
fluctuates but appears to correct itself rapidly and without visible government
interference. The US starts pursuing free trade and globalization treaties.
Manufacturing, agricultural, and finally high wage jobs are being outsourced.
High risk mortgages and investments are legalized and encouraged. Presidents
Bush (I) and Clinton start talking about and building a “New World Order”.
Social changes are being made to protect and benefit the people in power, without
participation from the general public. The Government begins to track, infiltrate,
and take deadly action against small religious groups and grass roots militias.
Law abiding citizens are blamed for violent crime and gun ownership is highly
regulated. The only bright spot during this decade is the results of the 1994
midterm election and the subsequent Contract with America.
A break of trust between the US Government and the People. Citizens should
store guns, ammo, food, and fuel. Prepare financially, physically, and mentally
for
change.
Condition Orange) Circa 1999-2006: The US is struck repeatedly by terrorists
at home and abroad. The Government responds by aggressive military action designed
to change the conditions in countries hosting terrorists. The economy fluctuates
between extremes of growth and recession, as if no one knows the true worth
of these commodities and major corporations. The Government begins to spend
massive amounts of money on the war and hides this spending off budget. Price
increases affect the availability of food and fuel. Social changes are being
made without participation of the citizens or even the US Congress. The most
offensive of these changes are rammed down the throat of a disbelieving public
by the courts and petty bureaucrats. The heavy handed tactics of the State
and Federal Government begin expanding the number and boldness of protest groups,
well ahead of their attempts to control them. Crime is increasingly organized
by gangs, carried out by minors and illegal aliens, and is funded by illegal
drugs. Law enforcement is not effective against this and many believe the problem
is intractable.
A second break of trust. Citizens should liquidate their financial assets,
purchase and store critical supplies and solar panels, and move to safer locations.
Condition Red) Circa 2007 – ????: High risk loans, derivatives, and credit
default swaps cause huge financial losses and trigger irrational stimulus spending.
The US Treasury and US Federal Reserve start taking up major ownership stakes
in US corporations, then use this position to control the means of production.
They announce plans to create a Federal domestic police force. This may be
used to enforce new requirements for domestic passports, travel restrictions,
and to deal with any visible protests. The Obama Administration is full of
folks committed to new laws regulating guns ownership and banning the sale
of effective defensive weapons, ammo, and reloading components. Large scale
energy, income, and sales tax increases are planned. I believe that Americans
will again be deprived from owning real [precious metals] money. Our currency
will be devalued by perhaps 80% to offset the massive Federal spending. Price
controls
and rationing
of food and fuel will be introduced by executive order. During the Great Depression,
FDR banned the private holding of gold and foreign currency. US dollars
(gold certificates) were replaced by Federal Reserve Notes. Many
banks were closed without returning deposits to account holders and what little
cash was left in the hands of the people was devalued by the Treasury by 40%.
Many folks are moving out of large cities. They are buying rural land and planting
a garden. They are buying and hoarding guns, ammo, food, fuel, and looking
to buy gold and silver. While economic conditions appear bad, the break of
trust
between the Government and the People is more reminiscent of the Civil War
than the Great Depression.
Can You Make an Orderly Transition?
a) Moving Out of the City but Keeping Your Job.
Many folks simply can not leave their big city job and feel trapped. For them,
moving your family out of the city and keeping your present job, and commuting
back and forth may be the best interim solution. You might look at public transportation
in your area and see if you could buy a home near this. Also consider owning
a Jeep or a pickup that can contain survival tools, food storage, hiking boots,
even a mountain bike and commute using that vehicle when you feel that a crisis
could be imminent. You need to practice for this occasionally to find out how
to drive home without using freeways, or clogged intersections, or having to
refill your gas tank. If you plan on biking home, why not try it once a month.
Find out now if it is a viable alternative.
b) Career Changes that Improve Your Preparedness.
Some friends of mine recently underwent a significant career change. They left
their research position at a US government lab in California to take a college
professorship in a small Midwestern town. There are many opportunities for
folks to change careers and significantly improving their preparedness level
without losing their career and every thing they have built. Creating a portable
small business, building a farm or ranch, taking a related job in small town
America are all good ways to improve your position without the big and scary
step of quitting and living off your savings.
c) Transfers and Early Retirement.
I moved out of Los Angeles 25 years ago, to a small desert town three hours
away. I soon plan to retire and move even further away from California and
its enormous
insatiable and unsustainable cities and their outrageous politics. Often times
these transitional changes take years of planning and savings to carry out
successfully. For me, the years of planning and savings are worth it. If you
are just a few years away from retirement, you might want to find out the rules
and calculate how to retire early and how much such a change would cost you
in the long run.
How Can You Bug Out Safely?
d) What are you Bugging Out From.
This may be the most important question. I believe that you must know what
you fear before you can plan what to do, and ultimately where to go. What could
convince you that you must leave your current home? Are you worried about a
natural disaster such as a hurricane, an earthquake, or a tsunami. Perhaps
you are concerned about a 1930s type depression, a renewed terrorist strike,
or a combination of events that teardown the rule of law and allow rioting
and conflict on a nationwide scale. If you are just worried about keep yourself
employed in our current economic mess, you might consider mobility and job
skills more important than bugging out. But if you have come to the conclusion
that the American society will fracture when subjected to enough stress and
that the inevitable reaction to almost any sudden crisis will be rioting and
nationwide loss of the rule of law, you might want to consider moving to an
area where you fit in and are accepted by the community.
e) Selecting the best route and location.
Leaving your “Big City” job and moving back to your home town is
a pretty popular idea right now, perhaps even smarter than trying to start
a new life in a new and strange part of the country. I grew up on a small farm
in the Midwest and am planning to move back to a small farm. When I talk to
my new neighbors I find that I actually have more in common with them culturally
that the folks I have worked with here in California for over 25 years. Truth
is I am still a farm boy who is more concerned with my farm and livestock than
I am with a Lexus or a wide screen entertainment system. No one seems to be
much impressed about my “Big City” job but every one is stoked
that I am a qualified gunsmith and can trap beaver out of the creek.
Some good friends of mine moved back to their home town of Sandpoint, Idaho
about 12 years ago. Northern Idaho seems like a nice enough place when I visited
a back then, but even a couple of local boys with engineering degrees had a
hard time landing a full time job. Perhaps moving where you can actually find
a job and where you can still afford some nice farm land would make more sense
than moving to someone else’s idea of an ideal location, (Sorry, James).
The same applies to your route selection. Staying away from the inner city
areas that always seem to be the flash points for social unrest seems obvious.
But perhaps moving out of the big city early is more important than planning
the best escape route and waiting too long. If you must wait until the last
minute you should consider finding a bug out location that is within a very
short drive, say only a few hours away. Another advantage of have a “local” bug
out location is using as a vacation spot on long weekends. Suddenly, taking
a week off and driving out of the city is more of a regular occurrence. If
you practice it often, it is more likely to work under the added stress of
a real crisis event. [JWR Adds: The drawback to this is that
if your retreat is in close proximity for you, then it is also in close proximity
for The
Golden Horde. A three hour drive out of Los Angeles, is just about where
most refugees will be running out of fuel. Choose your retreat locale wisely,
well-away from exit corridors and natural lines of drift.]
f) What to Carry, What to Pre-position.
Even if you have a very secure location to preposition or cache goods and equipment,
I believe that you need to store the primary means of survival at your home
and be prepared to carry it with you. I define the primary means of survival
as food, water, shelter, clothing, and protection from immediate harm. Secondary
stuff would be the means to sustain life beyond the immediate threat, i.e.
productive land to grow food, livestock, tractors and farm equipment, means
of producing
electrical power, reload ammunition, trade goods, gold and silver. I recommend
that you keep the primary stuff at home and have the means of transporting
it to safety at a moment's notice. You may choose to store the secondary stuff
at your retreat location (and take the risk of theft) or at home (depending
upon your ability to transport it). In practice, I would suggest that the heaviest
and most bulky secondary items should be pre-positioned or cached at the retreat
location.
g) Selecting a Bug Out Vehicle.
If you plan to--or fear you may have to--make a lengthy bug out trip with a
loaded vehicle during crisis conditions you might consider the fuel range and
load capacity as the most important considerations. While recently designed
gasoline vehicles tend to be very reliable and more fuel efficient than trucks
built in the 1970s, their fuel mileage is still much lower than an equivalent
turbo diesel with a manual transmission. Plus it is easier to add significant
auxiliary fuel storage tanks to a diesel. My number one recommendation for
a bug out vehicle is a 1994 thru 1997 Dodge Cummins one ton pickup with a 5
speed
manual transmission and 3.54 rear end. Add a 90 gal Aux. fuel/tool box combo
for 1,900 mile range without stopping to refuel.
What If You Leave Too Early?
h) Leaving When You Should.
Human nature is a funny thing. Through out history folks have remained in very
dangerous conditions, literally losing their own life, because they are afraid
of public ridicule for running away. This was particularly true with the Jews
in 1930s Germany. While leaving may have been difficult and even prohibited
by the Nazis, it was possible. So why did so many folks bow to social pressure
to remain. Who cares what the sheeple think, learn to run like a scared little
rabbit. If you can not move to a safe area permanently, then find a way to
move there temporarily. Look for an opportunity to take a sabbatical, or take
time off to care for an aging parent, or to work part time. Look for anything
that allows you to leave the most dangerous area at the first hint of a crisis.
Yes, your friends may harass you for bugging out too early and slinking back
a couple of weeks later. Just remember who they are and invite only those folks
who seem to understand the risks we appear to be facing.
i) Leaving Yourself a Way to Return.
Please do not plan to max out your credit cards, pull out of your retirement
accounts, or burn bridges with your boss. History is full of folks who thought
they knew the end of the world was coming, only to be forced to deal with reality
the next day. Did you ever hear of the 1840s religious group, the Millerites?
They gave away everything they owned because their leader knew that Christ
would
return
on a particular day. Leave yourself a safe way to return to your old life
if you decision to bug out is wrong. While I believe that it is a much better
plan to live in a safe area all the time than try to predict the event, I also
recognize that many people can not move quickly enough. I believe that the
Bible states that the end will arrive like a thief in the night. No notice,
no warning, one second every thing is fine and the next second the world has
changed radically.
j) Living with Your Mistakes.
It is possible that you will be caught up in a crisis in spite of all your
preparations. Perhaps you needed to travel to a big city hospital or take
a long range flight on just the wrong day. Perhaps a crisis develops while
you
are living your life and not really paying any attention. Life is not going
to send you any emails telling you that the stuff has hit the fan and you
are now on your own. I recommend that you always carry a bug out bag with
the basic
survival food and equipment, and bring along your knowledge, skills, experience
with you. Carry enough gold, silver, and cash to replace some of your preparations
and allow you to purchase the means to get home if you are caught taking
a long distance flight.
Summary.
There really is not any way to know what they future is going to look like.
We could experience a long degrading slide into the dust bin of history (France,
Spain, Japan) or in a blinding flash of cataclysm (1917 Russia, 1934 Germany,
2001 Argentina). We could be looking at a repeat of the Great Depression,
a World Was over the remaining oil supplies, or a second Civil War. What
I do know is that our Government has been corrupted and is responding to the
unbridled greed of an elite few and against the needs of the many.
Studying our own history and the history of other developed nations under
similar shows
two clear possible futures: Those that shared the pain recovered, those that
spared the elite at the expense of the many suffered from long debilitating
economic depressions that often decayed into Civil War, Fascism, or Communism.
I would rather face the future surrounded by like-minded people in an area
that can support both my life and a sustainable society. A society that is
not dependent on long distance transportation of critical goods, non-renewable
energy sources, centralized control and just in time deliveries, or intensive
industrialized agriculture. I was born on a small farm in the breadbasket
of the world, and I want my country back!
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Backpackers of the Apocalypse: Selecting and Ultra-Lighting Your Bug-Out Bag »
Three Letters Re: Why Survivalists Should Buy Local Organic Food
Mr. Rawles,
Yesterday, you posted Chad
L.'s submission concerning buying "organic" and/or
locally produced food. In it, Chad made a few statements that are simply
wrong. This is an example: "...factory
farming requires the use of fertilizer made from oil, largely derived from
the Middle
East. " This is a wholly ignorant statement, ignorant
because if the author had bothered to check, he would have found that the USA
produces nearly all of it's nitrogen fertilizer from natural gas. Even if we
did use oil as the source for ammonium nitrate, OPEC only accounts
for about half of the oil we import, if you only count Iraq
it accounts for 10 percent
of that (or about 5 percent of all imports). We import more oil from Canada
and Mexico than from any country we are current at war with. This sort of soft-thinking
is impossible to support, but sounds nice to many who take such statements
as fact without taking the time to check them. We don't produce nitrogen fertilizer
from oil, and if we did, the USA produces far more than it imports,
so the "largely derived from the Middle East" is patently false.
Heck, OPEC isn't comprised only of countries from the Middle East. Venezuela
as well
as several independent African nations are lumped in too. Take them out of
the equation and the total oil imported to the USA from the Middle East only
about a third of the total OPEC imports we receive.
He also doesn't point out that the majority of the world is
fed by corporate farming, he even makes "corporate" sound like a
dirty word. Any farmer I know who is making a profit, is incorporated. It costs
approximately 1/3 to produce (by weight) a "corporate" tomato as
it does an "organic" tomato - and the only purported guarantee you
get is that no pesticides were used to produce it. If the world went "organic" the
world would starve. Sure it's a good idea to grow your own food, but to do
so because you hate "corporations" or that non-organic food is somehow
less safe (anybody remember the folks who died/got sick when they drank the "organic" Odwalla
juices a few years back?) or more safe is living in a fantasy world.
Let's not forget the offhand insult delivered to that ignorant guy wearing
the NRA hat. Was it meant to say that the guy, being a gun-owner, should know
something about a place he'd never been? Or, more to the point, was it simply
an ad-hominem attack on some marginalized citizen (aren't all ignorant rednecks,
NRA hat-wearin' types?) who had the misfortune to cross this man's path?
Since he touts "organic" local farming as using, in his words, "very
little oil-based fertilizer" where, exactly does he think they get their
ammonium nitrate? Any farmer can make the claim to use "very little oil-based
fertilizer" since nearly all fertilizer is made from natural gas (that
we produce in the USA).
His arguments simply do not support the truth and facts about farming. He also
knocks, "South American factory farms" and makes an incoherent statement
about millions of low-income immigrants (the same incoherent statements made
about the Irish, Italian and WWII waves of immigrants) who flee here because
of economic conditions on South American farms. The last time I checked, immigration
from Chile (the major source of our winter fruits and vegetables - remember,
the seasons are reversed below the equator - not so with Mexico) was so small,
they did not fulfill their maximum quota with the US department
of state. In fact, with a 96 percent literacy rate, they are better educated
than we are
in the USA. And in fact, with a population of only about 16 million (most descended
from european immigrants) they would depopulate very quickly if they did support
his "millions" number. Corporate farming in Chile works well,
they help feed the rest of the world. Argentina is a close second. Many of
the farm
workers in Chile, for instance, are multi-generational employees of the same evil "corporations" as
their fathers and mothers. How do I know this? I visit there, and have several
connections in their agribusiness community.
He picked a poor example of "insuring national security", most of
the illegal workers in the USA do not work in agriculture-related
industries, although this may not be readily apparent to a Californian (the
breadbasket
of the USA). This also casts unfair aspersions on the character of the human
swarm he would have us fear as a "national security risk", do you
really think an illegal immigrant would countenance someone coming to the country
he needs to work in to support his family as his side in a border
crossing, if that person were to attack the USA? He would have you fear the "great
brown horde" the same way people in the northeast were taught to slur
those "swarthy grape stompers" from Italy.
His facts are either skewed, or wrong. His thinly veiled disdain for gun owners
and their intellect is insulting. And he is ignorant about where ammonium
nitrate comes from. - L.D.M.
JWR Replies: To bolster your position, I should mention that
SurvivalBlog reader "3CanKeep" kindly did some research and found that
only 3.1% of the U.S. natural gas supply comes
from
foreign
sources.
Jim,
I
really enjoyed Chad L.'s article from an organic farmer reaching out
to the preparedness community. It was very well written with many bits of humor
and many very relevant thoughts, such as, "if I’m lucky I just might
get to be a farm hand if things go bad." and"That requires knowing
how to grow it, something that is well beyond even moderately accomplished
hobby gardeners",and "a book can be a great
source of information, but it will likely never replace hands on learning from
someone
that knows what they’re doing. If you want to be able to grow enough
food to live on you should know a farmer."and, finally, "Much lore
and utility can be learned from those that actually know how to do things and
no thing is more important than being able to produce food."
For some unknown reason, I've been really fired up during the last few weeks
to learn as much about gardening and growing food, more than I have ever been
during my last 50+ years. If this is Providential direction, I had better get
my rear in gear!
Chad's article is truly reaching out to those of us who, "have never really
been to a farmer’s market because he thought it was full of overpriced
vegetables and dope-smoking hippies", and I commend him for his efforts
and have a better idea as to how those prices may be not as high as I thought.
I just want to second what Chad is saying. Having been around production
(factory), small scale and organic farming for about 40 years, it is clear
most of the production farms and farmers will not survive times when oil and
it's associated fertilizers and pesticides disappear or are in very short supply,
the same is true if credit is tight. The knowledge curve to change from production
to organic farming is a multi-year process.
For the preppers having seeds in a can sounds good and may make some folks
feel good but it is unlikely their first crop will provide sufficient food
to make it till the next harvest. That also assumes they have knowledge to
preserve the crops and an a appropriate place for storage. There are only two
groups that might grow us enough food to survive, the small homesteading folks
that are currently supplying food for their family and the small growers that
are selling into the farmers markets and/or have Community Supported Agriculutre
(CSA) organizations. Of these two only the small growers have the knowledge
to rapidly scale up output.
Having been a conservative most of my life and having watched George W. take
away many of our freedoms with the Patriot Act and Paramilitarization of the
police force though the war on drugs, I now mostly try to ignore the far right,
'christian' right, far left, and other fringe groups and just focus on the
individual people. There are many folks planning and preparing for tough times,
it will be difficult enough to survive without using the knowledge of all of
us.
Thanks for the blog. I just ordered your new edition of "Patriots". - Riverrat
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Why Survivalists Should Buy Local Organic Food, by Chad L.
I know the name of the woman who raises the chickens that lay the eggs that
I
eat. Do you? I know about her daughter’s college plans and her vacations
and how she got into the business of raising chickens. This might not seem so
important from a survivalist perspective, but I think it is and I’ll explain
why in the following paragraphs.
Now think about where you get your eggs. Chances are they come from a big
chain grocery store. That means they are raised in a huge factory farm, staffed
by
underpaid workers of questionable legality, and overwhelmingly dependent on Chinese
produced chicken feed. Which of these eggs do you think is better for the long-term
goals of a preparedness minded individual? I thought so.
What I’m getting at here is that an American preparedness culture should
be supporting small, local, organic farms whenever possible. In this essay I
am going to avoid environmental arguments in support of local, organic foods.
Although, I will confess that I believe that environmental issues are one of
the largest threats to American personal and national security and that a dedication
to environmental solutions will ease many of the problems that threaten us, especially
including dependence on foreign oil and government corporate welfare in the form
of unnecessary farm subsidies.
I started thinking about this topic because I work at a Farmer’s Market
in Northern California and I rarely see customers that exhibit some of the tell
tale signs of the “survivalist” crowd (Ruger hats, NRA T-shirts,
etc.). However, many of the farmers can be seen wearing “the signs”.
Small farmers are, as a whole, very hard working, practically minded, conservative
leaning people who care deeply for their families. They would mostly fit right
in at any Preparedness gathering; even the really Left of center politically
leaning ones.
One morning a man walked up wearing an NRA hat and we got to talking. It turns
out he had never really been to a farmer’s market because he thought it
was full of overpriced vegetables and dope-smoking hippies. He was having a good
experience and was really impressed by how knowledgeable the workers were about
what they were selling. I could certainly offer no counter to his concerns over
the hippies (it is Northern California after all. Although, to tell the truth
there aren’t that many of them left). The counter to his cost concerns
is more complex.
Organic food costs more than non-organic food. It is certainly more expensive
to make food grow like this and the cost is passed on to the consumer. There
have been plenty of recent big agriculture financed studies showing that there
is little nutritional difference between organic and factory produced food which
leads a consumer on a budget to validly wonder “why should I buy this if
it isn’t better for me?” Even if these studies are true, they do
not tell the whole picture.
Organic has become a major buzz word and a major marketing tool. Plenty of the
stuff that’s labeled organic gains a lot of its cost from being shipped
from South America and the big grocery stores (especially the big health food
stores) are more than willing to tack on high prices for perceived value. It’s
the same thing that goes on with the designer bags my wife covets. They might
not do anything special (they hold stuff the same as my backpack does), but they
look nice and are sought after by a particular and demanding consumer that is
willing to pay extra for premium.
But this isn’t the whole story or even the segment of the food producers
I’m suggesting we as survivalists support. There are huge hidden costs
to the production of cheap factory food. First of all, cheap food requires cheap
labor. When people in South America are sick of being sprayed by pesticides and
working for next to nothing, where do you think they are going to go?
Your hard earned dollars should not be supporting factory farms that are abusing
humans (a Christian issue if ever there was one if that concerns you) or creating
an economic climate that gives incentive to millions of desperate people to illegally
enter the country. The cost of supporting these South American factory farms
is inestimable when you factor in all of the issues surrounding illegal immigration,
issues that should be on the minds of all Preparedness minded citizens. |
Second, factory farming requires the use of fertilizer made from oil, largely
derived from the Middle East. Ask anyone with a child serving in Iraq what the
cost of oil is and you are not going to get a dollar amount. I’m not suggesting
that we should not use oil or that our actions in Iraq are unjust or unnecessary,
far from it. I am suggesting that supporting a food production model that uses
very little oil-based fertilizer is in the best interests of Americans. Small,
local farms that utilize crop rotation and sustainable practices do not destroy
the land at the same rate (often the land is replenished) and do not need to
pump Saudi chemicals into the ground.
A trip to a farmer’s market is far different than a trip to a place like
a Whole Foods store. Vegetables and livestock that are in season and not delivered
very far (the Locavore rule of thumb is to try not to eat food from more than
100
miles away if you can help it) have a negligibly higher cost at the register
and virtually no societal costs associated with factory farms.
This is really just the tip of the iceberg of the issues surrounding the ways
factory farming weakens national security. The more you dig, the more you see
that true freedom and liberty depends on the yeoman farmer so celebrated by Thomas
Jefferson. The Jeffersonian agrarian ideal is alive and well and you can help
it survive simply by shopping.
Think about this: if the stuff really hits the fan and the country goes to
h*ll, whom do you want to be friends with? I want to be friends with hard
working men
and women that know how to grow food and make their land work for them. Shopping
at farmer’s markets is a great way to make community connections that are
both personally rewarding and potentially life saving. I know the names of many
of the people I buy my food from and if I’m lucky I just might get to be
a farm hand if things go bad.
Thankfully there seems to be a shift away from the “hoard away somewhere
with guns and MREs
and ride it out” model of survivalism. Those MREs
are terrible and will eventually run out. If you had to survive on them for
any period
of time you would likely add a great deal of depression to what is likely going
to be a stressful situation. I want to be in a position to eat real food. That
requires knowing how to grow it, something that is well beyond even moderately
accomplished hobby gardeners. Even the gnarliest “I’m gonna drive
'the last of the V8 interceptors' and pump .50 caliber rounds into any desperados
I see” survivalist is likely including gardening books in their personal
survival library.
If you want to learn how to do something, a book can be a great source of information,
but it will likely never replace hands on learning from someone that knows
what they’re doing. If you want to be able to grow enough food to live on you
should know a farmer. It’s real easy to meet them. Just go to a market
and ask them about their product.
Being able to grow food is more important than even being able to properly operate
a firearm (and many who can do the former know the latter simply by cultural
osmosis). If you are willing to buy premium American made firearms, learn from
the knowledgeable through conversation and classes, and enjoy them, you should
be willing to do the same with your food.
Like all the best survival preps, gardening is fun and rewarding on its own
and provides a wonderful opportunity to connect with your family. It ranks
right
up there with teaching your kids how to fish and shoot, but it has unfortunately
fallen out of vogue in the last fifty years. When you’re picking up a
head of lettuce from your new friend that grew it for you, ask him how you
might do
the same. It could save your life.
Shopping at farmer’s markets protects national security interests, builds
important connections with like-minded people able to withstand hard times, and
provides a way for families to connect with the traditions of one of America’s
most hardworking and iconic professions, the farmer. Much lore and utility
can be learned from those that actually know how to do things and no thing
is more
important than being able to produce food.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Home-Made Super Cat Alcohol Stoves »
Two Letters Re: Knob Creek Report on Ammunition, Magazines, and Parts
Jim, I also have been a regular attendee of the Knob Creek gun show in Fort
Knox, Kentucky for the past 8 years and would like to add a little more insight.
I always attend the October show and occasionally attend the April show. Times
being as they are I made an extra effort to attend last week and bring some
first timers with me. The shock started Friday morning when the booths opened
at 9:00am. My first encounter was Hi-Tech Ammunition (St. Louis) table. They
were already out of all rifle and pistol powder. Only remaining was some military
surplus machine gun powder. The I went to a Wolf ammo supplier to only to find
7.62x39 was now $375/1,000. Their 9mm Federal was $325/1,000. I was not going
to buy more since I already had an ample supply from the October show. ($185/1,000
for 7.62x39 and $175/1,000 for 9mm). In six months did the price really double?
Yes it did and where will it be next month. I already new and expected .223
to be over $400/1,000 and was right. .223 is easy to reload for under $200/1,000
so its back to my basement married to my Dillon 550B.
Rifle and pistol prices are also hair raising issues. I have been tracking
the costs of AK-47s
extensively for the past two years. Since the October 2008 show AK-47s went
up 50%. What used to be $375 for a Romanian WASR-10 is now $600. Any Hungarian
or Bulgarian varieties that were $500 to $650 are now $700 to $950 and I did
not see one Yugo AK in the three days at the show. SKSes
were selling for $300 and up.
Your earlier Knob Creek reporter summed up the magazine market perfectly.
Mags were available but the prices were all over the place, but mostly
up. Once fired brass was very hard to find. I also heard that the
dealers bought everything up on Thursday before the show started. Everything
I wanted was gone, extremely limited or twice the price. What a depressing
show. I had to the same conclusion to start shooting the AK-74 round
(5.45 mm) but when everybody catches on its going to be the same problem we
have right now. - John at the Trading Post
Dear James,
Yesterday you included a note from a reader who had attended the Knob Creek
Shoot. In it he wrote: "On the whole, the current situation seems to
favor those moving into the AK-74 realm. AK-74 [parts] kits were $495, receiver
flats were $12, transferable receivers were $60 and the ammo was $300 per
1,300 rounds (in sealed tins). There never seems to be much competition for
that ammo. I am thinking about getting a 5.45mm AK."
If you have standardized with the AR-15 platform,
you can still use the 5.45x39 ammo which is still relatively cheap these days.
Smith & Wesson makes both a full carbine and an upper in 5.45x39. AIM
Surplus has the upper only available for $569. They also have the Russian
53 grain FMJ available
for $149 per 1080-round can. This is where I bought my S&W flat-top
upper.
I know there are other companies which make uppers in 5.45x39. If you already
have an AR lower
and want to take advantage of the price differential, this may be the way to
go. - John R. in North Carolina
JWR Replies: That is a good point. For someone that does
a lot of .223 target shooting, this os presently a good option. Let's do the
math: Typical 5.56mm NATO ball (such as Winchester white box was $5 a box three
years ago. It is now $15 per box. Suppose that you were to buy three 1,080-round
cans of 5.45x39 ammo for $450. The equivalent quantity of 5.56 ball would cost
a whopping $2,430. That is almost a $2,000 difference! Even after the expense
of buying a dedicated 5.45x39 upper receiver assembly (around $800 for a nice
one, presently), you'd still be nearly $1,200 ahead and would significantly
reduce wear to your original 5.56.barrel.. It is also just the trick for that Red
Dawn
scenario.
It won't be long until folks catch on, and the supply of 5.45mm ammo dries
up, so don't dawdle. If you currently own an AR-15 or M4, buy several cans
of 5.45 ammo now. Just be willing to be on the back
order list for a 5.45x39 upper receiver assembly for several months. Come next
Fall, you'll be laughing all the way to the bank shooting range
« Three Letters Re: Some Practical Lessons with Daily Concealed Carry |Main| Note from JWR: »
Old Frontier Forts as Alternative Bug Out Locations?, by R.D. in Wyoming
I wish to present an alternative prep situation that I have not really seen talked
about on your blog and at other other sites. First a small bit of biographical background and anecdotes to explain
my reasons for what I (now recently we) are doing.
Ten years ago, I retired from the military (26+ years, Life Scout (in a younger
form) and an ex-scout leader (both Boy and Girl Scouts), fixed income with a
part time job, never lived at one address longer than three years (requirement
of
military
lifestyle), hobbies oriented to colonial/fur trade eras (see anecdote), recent
earnest prepper (caused by that feeling in the pit of my stomach and head that
things really aren't right and not going to get better). Fiscally responsible
but bought the "earned your retirement" false dream long ago--that
can't be changed now.
While in the military a lifestyle of semi-preparedness was necessary because
of my low income. (I suffered through the
Carter and Clinton administrations). We canned food from our garden wherever
we
were
stationed
to
stretch
the food budget and teach our children how to make their own food; we cut firewood
for heat in some locales; we relied on kerosene lamp back-up lighting and camp
stove cooking because of unreliable base power grids. At one base I was even
visited by the Public Works officer to find out why my quarters had lights during
a power outage. Imagine his surprise to find both lights and heat off the grid,
plus all my neighbors and their children warm and well fed.
At times, while in the service, we qualified for assistance food and
based upon those experiences have reached some unconventional decisions. Assistance
food usually meant a five-pound block of USDA cheese, #10 cans of dehydrated
soups or powdered eggs, surplus breads and very large containers of dried milk.
When
you
open these it becomes a use-it-or-lose-it menu even for a family of four!
My colonial/fur trades hobbies came about with involvement in Scouting, teaching
merit badges, Indian skills and camp crafts. They are both enjoyable and practical
from a barter-trades aspect: hide tanning/leatherworking, moccasin and footwear
making, non-manufactured clothing making (no zippers or buttons) and
using trade cloth/blankets), primitive cooking and camping skills and pioneering--the
art of using logs and rope to construct bridges, platforms and watch towers,
cranes and jack-legs, and other basic heavy lifting rigs. I highly recommend
adding Scouting handbooks and merit badge books (older printings) to family
preparedness libraries. There is a
wealth of information there!
Last year, while looking for our current home, I was really taken with a 1950s
home that still had a primo Civil Defense specification bomb shelter in the
back yard, primarily as a safe place for my reloading and weapons storage.
It was
the
high end style
that
was connected to the basement of the house with a concrete tunnel, doored at
both ends, and three feet underground. It was in mild disrepair: vent system
damaged and entrance sealed off at the house, but repairable. We passed on
that house because it was in the end too small for our needs and in a shall-we-say
"unstable" neighborhood.
Six months after purchasing our current home my wife, out of the blue, says
that
maybe we should have bought the other house! This from a woman that has made
disparaging remarks when I have added to our LBE kits and checked the status
of our "homeland defense" items.
She seems to have had an epiphany after our taxes were prepared when she wanted
to know why we had not taken the $3,000 credit from our small investment nest
egg
before and I explained that we had never lost over half of it to the economy!
When the "boss" changed
her attitude and became interested in my "below the radar" preps,
I started to include her in the decision and prioritizing of what to buy and
the impacts on our limited budget.
"Below the radar" preps means passing off a purchase as some other
need (diplomatic when not everyone is on board with the idea): a small generator
was
for our tent camper, food items were for this summer when our grandson visits
or to replace things lost in a move, water jugs were because of the places
where we camp, extra gas cans were for the lawn mower (a stretch but it worked),
the
FRS radios
were an aid when we are out hiking, though there was no need to disguise the
increase
in reloading components when the election results were in.
All this brings me to our different style of prepping.
While I would like to be able to stock up as is generally noted and advocated,
our finances and storage space do not permit the expenditure of the amounts
necessary to buy in bulk. Also from my experiences in the military I don't
like to place all my eggs in one basket. I will admit that while
it is more expensive per unit cost, it is also more "do-able" in
an on-going practical sense on a fixed income and has an unforeseen future
benefit.
We make our storage food purchases with only the two of us in immediate mind,
to aid in use and rotation, by buying individual serving packages for most
of the items that we get: boxes of rice sealed in boil-in-bag pouches, powdered
milk in boxes that have quart size servings inside, individual packages of
Ramen
style noodles, small cans of fruits and vegetables (the type with the pull-off
lids), non-refrigerated microwave meals that serve one (these are very practical
as they go in our lunches on a daily basis), individual packet boxes of instant
oatmeal, and normal sizes of canned meat, chicken and fish. Some items naturally
are bought in what would be normal sizes but for only the two of us they seem
to last forever: Five pound bags of flour, sugar, cornmeal, coffee and pancake
mixes. The primary factor in these purchases is getting the longest expiration
dates
that we can find. All this gets put into 22 gallon Totes that have latches
for the lids but only one container of each item per Tote: a box of rice, a
box
of milk,
salt, coffee, etc., 4 each of the fruits and vegetables (36 total), 4 rolls
of toilet paper and towels, strike anywhere matches, sets of durable plastic
knife, fork and spoon, zip-lock bag of 28 individual size soap, 4 empty plastic
bullet boxes that hold
4 Bic style [disposable butane] lighters, 2 packets each type garden seeds.
This list is not complete, but you get the idea. The content of each Tote equate
to one
month's
food and paper needs and is movable by even our 13 year old grandson. We currently
have six totes filled, after only four months of serious additions. We are
trying to add
one Tote a month in addition to the other things that we are getting. My part-time
job provides the funds for this so what we can get depends on what else is
on a priority that month. We do have an additional Tote that holds 36 MREs
and is
marked for priority loading. Our water is stored in the newer G.I. five-gallon
plastic water cans, available at flea markets. These are stored in a dark storage
room.
Our
small
camper
is
always stocked and ready to go no matter what season of the year.
Now for the reasoning behind this method. If TSHTF or TEOTWAWKI occurs
it may be gradual or a traumatic event requiring different tactics. If gradual
and
we can hunker down while finishing up necessaries, only one Tote at a time
needs
to be opened to augment what we have. If traumatic, anyone can carry/load the
Totes into one of several available G.O.O.D. vehicles or the trailer while
another watches their "six". The urgency of a bug-out may dictate how much
can be loaded
in the time available. The more Totes that can be grabbed, the longer we can
make do but the MRE Tote and water is always loaded first. This is in addition
to B.O.B.s and
homeland defense items.
Now for the unforeseen future benefits that I mentioned. As you have noted
several times and places, I too could not turn away others that are in need
if I can
help. But giving someone a #10 can of beans or soup will not really help them.
A grocery bag of individual servings that they are familiar with and provide
variety and full meals for one or two days plus a means to heat it will help
while not depleting our stores. Secondly, if a bad guy finds a single Tote
with a few of everything in it, they may assume that's all there is
and not attempt to engage in a protracted search for more.
One last item that may not meet with approval but is out-of-the-box thinking
in the selection of several fallback retreat sites that most others probably
will not think of. If we cannot stay in the city, as small as it is,
I have found a couple of locales that would prove ideal. One is a semi-restored
1870s military post. Yes, I know that I don't own it in the
traditional sense though I have paid for it through my taxes, but if there
is no more
authority in force, it could prove useful. The fort is already set up to function
without power as we are used to, just coal
or wood heat and cooking (there is no electricity on site), bulletproof buildings
and pre-determined fields of fire, close to a year round water source, small
homes
for families
and barracks for singles and designed by some of the best military minds of
their times. Even has a powder magazine and jail! It also has a very low visitor
count.
If it is occupied or contested, no problems, as there are others at regular
distances closer or farther. If not, then it allows for a rally point and the
expansion of a
Group as others arrive that are aware of my thinking. And they are not unique
to our Area of Operations (AO).
I have been to some really complete ones back east, in the south, and
on the west coast. Let your mind do the walking.
I didn't realize how long this became. If you find it suitable for
others to see to help them achieve their goals with limited or minimal means,
please feel free to chop it as necessary.
Very Respectfully of your efforts to aid others, - R.D. in Wyoming
JWR Replies: That is an interesting concept, but implementing
as you describe would require a quite unique set of circumstances. Namely,
it could only happen if there were
a sudden an near total collapse of society, and if all law
enforcement evaporated overnight. It is far more likely that we will witness
a "slow slide"
from recession
to
depression, (and then, much less likely) to collapse. For most that continuum, your actions would be seen
as criminal, and you'd quickly attract the attention of government. So then
you might end up behind some other very
stout walls. And BTW, any of these forts that are on National Forest or National
Park land are considered Federal property, so any occupation deemed "trespassing"
would be a Federal offense and likely carry a much more severe penalty than
trespass on state or county parklands. So it is best to make this a "very
low likelihood"
contingency plan.
In my estimation the only pragmatic way to occupy an old
fort in the midst of a slow slide situation would be to include representatives
of county, state or perhaps even Federal government as part of your planned
cadre, and characterize
it all
as a "continuity
of government" (COG)
endeavor. Bureaucrats often enjoy thinking (or pretending) that they come up
with original ideas. Given the promise of safety for "selected"
people, this should not be too difficult to orchestrate, especially as the
economy worsens and the crime rate escalates. Creating a nexus with a governmental
organization could be as complex as getting qualified as an EMT, or as simple
as joining a
Sheriff's Posse,
joining a County
SAR team,
or becoming a RACES-affiliated
ham radio operator.
« Two Letters Re: Barnyard Junk: The Things that You Do and Don't Need for TEOTWAWKI |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: Paying Off Debts with Inflated Dollars?
JWR,
I understand when you say that hyperinflation will make the price of
things go up and up, like a ten dollar or hundred dollar loaf of bread. But
what happens to a financed item, specifically the home [that is] mortgaged?
Can the lender change the interest rate or the length of loan? What about
other
financed
items
like a car loan? If nothing changes then a person would be paying back the
loan with inflated dollars, which might be a good thing? Please explain. Thank
You, - RenoFlyBoy
JWR Replies: To begin: You had asked: "
Can the lender change the interest rate or the length of loan? What about
other
financed
items
like a car loan?" The short answer is no. But don't underestimate
the ability of politicians to monkey with market fundamentals. In the event of
hyperinflation, there
could
conceivably
be some sort of tiered inflation indexing of existing debts. This is very
unlikely,
but given the entrenched army of banking industry lobbyists in Washington,
DC,
it
is
not
impossible.
You may have missed these five posts in SurvivalBlog from the past three years:
Letter
Re: Is it Deflation or Inflation Ahead? Should I Pay Down My Debts? (2009)
Letter
Re: Does Future Inflation Justify a Higher Level of Indebtedness? (2008)
Are
Simultaneous Inflation and Deflation Possible? (2008)
Letter
Re: With Inflation Ahead, Why Be Debt Free? (2007)
Letter
Re: Fiscal Fitness (2007)
Take the time to read all five of those posts.
Given the multi-trillion dollar overspending that is in now progress,
I still believe that mass inflation of the US Dollar is inevitable. But we
are in uncharted
waters, at present. (We have just seen an unprecedented asset and debt bubble
go "pop".) Thus, nobody is sure how long it will take to put the
economy back on track, and likewise nobody know how long deflation will persist
To
be safe, avoid debt for the next couple of years. Also, as I've mentioned
before, it is not morally conscionable to take out a loan that you do not intend
to pay back.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Barnyard Junk: The Things that You Do and Don't Need for TEOTWAWKI »
Letter Re: An Impromptu SurvivalBlog Meet-up at Front Sight
There was a bit of a ‘covert’ Survivalblog
gathering at Front Sight recently. Along with Tim R & Tantalum Tom I was
also in attendance earlier in March. I have two grown sons, both of which had
expressed a desire to have a handgun for home defense. As a law enforcement
officer
and
former
SWAT team member I am familiar with the operation of and responsibility with
owning a gun. I am confident in my training and ability to defend my home and
family through that training. My two sons, however, had barely even held a
gun, let alone fired it. This spurred me to obtain the proper training as any
responsible gun owner should do, and when I heard about the "get
a Gun " promotion for the four day Defensive Handgun course that Dr. Piazza was offering, I jumped on board for all three of us.
Both of my sons were shocked when I made the presentation to them last year.
Before doing so, they knew something was coming, but had no idea as to exactly
what it was. When I gave them the course, including transportation and lodging,
they were both flabbergasted and ecstatic. Imagine how amazed they were to
find they would also be using a brand new gun of their choosing which would
belong to them upon completion of the course, with Front Sight sending it back
to our local FFL dealer. I gave them this present last July, and thanks to
Front Sight’s generous scheduling policy, I had the luxury of planning
the trip at my convenience, choosing dates in mid March.
The trip to Vegas was go od, where we rented a car and drove out to Pahrump,
about 50 miles to the west. We even had enough time that first day to go back
to Vegas where we feasted on the sights and sounds of ‘The Strip’ and
one of the many great buffets, catching a show afterwards. On Friday we drove
up to the front gate at Front Sight where we were welcomed and directed to
the check in location. Often times any of us are nervous when doing something
for the first time, especially in unfamiliar territory far from home. But here
we were greeted with a smile by a well organized and helpful staff. Nerves
disappeared almost immediately, replaced by the excitement of what was to come.
The five days there were phenomenal, especially as I had the honor of sharing
that voyage of discovery with my two sons. You’ve undoubtedly read the
commentaries from other attendees, so I will spare you from repetition other
than to say the education I received was excellent. I put some 800 rounds through
my [Springfield Armory] .45 XD and by the end of my time there it felt so natural in my hand to be
almost a part of me.
I was most taken back by the staff who make it truly phenomenal. I will refer
to my range-master as the ‘Stair’-Master who took us, step by step,
through their procedures in such a natural way. He was informative, professional,
friendly, o pen and knew what he was teaching inside out and back to front.
But to be perfectly honest, you could say the same for all of them. There were
times when we had seven or eight instructors on the line with us. Talk about
individual coaching and instruction! Unheard of! This by far is the best firearm
instruction I have ever received, and would recommend it to anyone, both novice
and expert alike.
In addition to receiving great instruction on the range, we were also afforded
some informative and well thought out lectures introducing the concept of owning,
using, choosing and carrying a gun. The presenters make it interesting and
use their experience and real life situations to better relate to the student
body. I even found myself enacting one scenario out with them in a realistic,
unscripted way that I have to say, would be very realistic given the situation
they presented.
I would also recommend the lunches available through pre-order from ‘Beach
Café’, linked through the Front Sight web site. They deliver lunches
daily and I found them more than sufficient to get me through the day. As others
have said, make sure you hydrate, dress appropriately (layers) and expect to
spend long days there which whiz by with all that you do. The coffee is plentiful
and the friends you will make from those around you will make it even more
special. Come the last day I ‘slowly, carefully, reluctantly’ placed
my gun back in its holster and shook the hands of the new friends I had made,
determined to return and further my education on a later date. Cruise eBay
for some first
time student gray course certificates and you too can attend some of their
courses at a great rate where you will then discover the awesome deals available
to
return students. Folks, you will not be disappointed, and you will feel so
much better prepared in your ability to protect yourself, your home, and most
importantly, your loved ones. - DeFuz
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Walk!, by Snolden »
Letter Re: Ammunition Shortages in U.S. Might Become Chronic
Hi Jim,
A man with the Customer Service department at Midway explained that backorders
are expected to continue and there appears to be no reduction in demand.
Browsing
their
web site,
I
see 'expected' delivery dates pushing further into the future, and up to
six weeks delay for the less expensive and common caliber hunting bullet,
mostly .30
caliber
bullets. Many premium bullets are also on 'back order' since my last visit.
And now, even less common caliber bullets are backordered as well as other
reloading components and reloading tools. The shortage at Cabela's also
continues. The Civilian Marksman Program (CMP),
advises that delivery could take 100 days for their still inexpensive M2
ball (.30-06) for the M1 Garand [and
many other] rifles.
I believe that you've mentioned the possibility that "Ballistic
Wampum" could
be more useful than silver for the purposes of barter. The ammunition and component
shortage is making a me believer. If events unfold as they might, the shortage
could become increasingly severe and chronic. It may actually now be easier
to obtain silver than bullets or certain and popular loaded ammunition. Over
the last two years, I've done better with ammunition than silver, and have
decided to trade in silver if necessary, for bullets. In memory of the Lone
Ranger,
silver would be a poor substitute for lead as the sectional density of a sliver
bullet would be significantly less and therefore less effective. As I am no
Lone Ranger, I would need all the advantages possible, and rather have the
good stuff.
More folks are waking up everyday, and I suspect most of them will feel the need
to protect and feed themselves. Many of those folks will be without the means
to do as they discover that they cannot afford buy a good supply or any supply,
and if able, may find that shipment could be months into the future. The Fed's
recent action makes continued and escalating hyper inflation a given. If delivery
in months away, prices might change, or delivery might become impossible at some
point. I'd error on the side of caution. - E.L.
« Letter: Full Capacity Magazine Price Inflation and Scarcity |Main| Life's Lessons and the Foundations of Preparedness, by A.B. »
Letter Re: Private Gated Communities May Not be Gated After All
Dear Mr. Rawles,
I read Brad S.'s letter with interest today. About ten years ago I was working
in property management for an apartment community in Lakewood, Washington.
Not exactly a low-crime area, to say the least.
One of our selling points was the gates at each entrance of the community.
My manager and I took over the property not knowing the sort of people the
previous management team had rented to. Over the course of four months, we
evicted dozens of tenants for being months behind on rent, among other things.
When
this process began, we noticed that we received daily complaints about our
gates being "busted".
Turned out disgruntled ne'er do wells whose pass codes had been deleted and
locks changed were using their vehicle [bumper]s to push the
gates open to get into the community. Because the gates open in the direction
the
vehicle is going
(i.e. in for incoming vehicles and out for outgoing), these was extremely easy
for them to do. One (non-criminal) resident actually got brave enough to slip
outside one night and get video footage of a vehicle so that we could help
the police try to track them down.
We went through thousands and thousands of dollars by the time we just gave
up and stopped fixing them. It became a game for the nasties in the area and
just wasn't worth it any more. The police had a heck of a time getting anyone
involved in the Neighborhood Watch in the area, but when they finally got mad
enough about their rent money not keeping up "security", people started
cracking down on their former neighbors and current neighbors. Yes - current
- even some of the punks who didn't get evicted were still doing it just to
infuriate my boss.
Additionally, most of the apartments set up like this will purposely lock the
gates open during heavy commute hours (say, 0700-0900 and 1600-1800) just to
save on the electric bill and keep lines from forming at the gate. This means
that anyone and everyone who happens to notice this on a property can just
time their visits appropriately and have full access to your community.
Unless you are the only family on your place with much better gates and a
better system, such gates are nothing but a mental barrier to keep honest people
honest, as they say, and to instill a sense of security and class in the residents.
This doesn't apply to heavy duty gates, especially those that slide from side
to side on a track, vs the kind that open on a hinge with a small motor, of
course. But in general, as somebody who got to write up about a hundred repair
requests - skip 'em. They aren't worth it if they are the generic "make
you feel special and make your place look fancy" type of gates.
Thanks for all your hard work. - M.K.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Private Gated Communities May Not be Gated After All »
Letter: Full Capacity Magazine Price Inflation and Scarcity
James,
I too purchased a PTR-91 [HK91 clone] rifle and ordered
50 magazines from PTR 91 Inc. The shipping was reasonable and when I received
them, there were [actually some free "bonus", for a total of] 55
magazines. They ranged from good to like new condition and had dates all the
way from 1963 thru early 1990s. For $107 delivered, I got 55 magazines and
a very big smile on my face. - M.E.K .
« Letter: Full Capacity Magazine Price Inflation and Scarcity |Main| Cold and Dark--An Account of an Ice Storm, by Steve S. »
Letter Re: Private Gated Communities May Not be Gated After All
Hi Jim,
Due to the real estate slump and the poor economy, my wife and I are trying
to unravel our mess of real estate investments. One thing we did, was to abandoned
our McMansion in a rural area near Seattle, Washington. It was a new four
thousand square foot custom home in a gated community. All the other houses
were as large and some significantly larger. We had abandoned the house about
a
year ago after failing to sell it for what we owed, and have not made any house
payments since then. We also chose not to pay the home owners association dues
which is there to maintain the landscaping and the automatic gates.
Last week we received a letter from the gate maintenance company. they repair
and service the gates. They sent a contract to each of the houses behind our
particular gate requesting us to pay them month service fees in order to have
the gates that were owned by the neighborhood to be operational.
Apparently, the association had several people not pay the yearly fees and
they have decided to keep the landscaping maintained, but not the gates.
My point is that these are a very false sense of security. I know for fact
that if power is lost, the gates automatically open. and the power can be turned
off usually by an unlocked power panel behind some bush nearby the gate. I
thought this was interesting and wondered if any other people had this same
experience. - Brad S.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Private Gated Communities May Not be Gated After All »
Letter: Full Capacity Magazine Price Inflation and Scarcity
Greetings -
Just wanted to say "thank you" for suggesting the PTR-91 as a battle
rifle option. I will freely admit to getting caught up in the AR-15 hysteria
but I have come to my senses and saved money thanks to SurvivalBlog.
German surplus G3 alloy military surplus magazines in good to excellent condition
are easily available in quantity for $3-to-$4 each. Contrast that with AR-15
mags at $15+
each,
and that's a 5:1 ratio. Or, for the same $90 folks are paying for a single AR-10
mag, they can get more than 25 surplus G3 mags, shipped! In addition, while
AR-15s are nearly impossible to find at $1,000 or less, I am finding PTR-91s
on the
shelf for $1,100 just waiting to be bought. Yes, 7.62mm NATO is more expensive
than 5.56 NATO, and the G3 mags are only 20-rounders, but all in all I can't
think of a better, low total ownership cost battle rifle than the PTR-91. -
JT in Michigan
« Letter Re: A Technique for Crossing Barbed-Wire Fences |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Letter Re: Wealth Destruction--Real Wealth or Just On-Paper Wealth?
Sir:
I followed the link in Thursday's blog to this I followed this news story: 45
percent of world's wealth destroyed: Blackstone CEO. It stated: "Between
40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than
a year and a half." I don't see how Schwarzman can be right about that.
The factories are still there. the farms are still there. The houses are still
there. And there are still warehouses full of everything from Machinery and
bar stock to Sponge Bob Squarepants toys.So what has been destroyed are just "on
paper" profits, not any real wealth. Please correct me
if I'm wrong, but what is to stop us from just revaluating things, and getting
along with life? Thanks, - F.T.G
JWR Replies: You are mostly right, but partly wrong. You
are correct that there has been very little real tangible wealth that has
been
destroyed, other than inventory that might be discarded for lack of a market,
some half-finished commercial and residential building projects that will
eventually get bulldozed, and some perishables that have been delayed in transit
and that went to waste. You are also correct that most of what still exists
tangibly has genuine value. But consider that an under-utilized factory
produces fewer goods than a fully-utilized factory. (OBTW, on that note,
we can thank President Obama for at least keeping America's gun, ammunition,
and
magazine
factories working
at
a fever pitch.)
So let's step back and look at the big picture...
What has been destroyed:
1.) Asset Values:
This goes without saying. Reader FTG is correct that facilities and capital equipment
are physically intact, but their values have been greatly reduced. I expect to
see this process continue for several more years.
2.) Wages and Buying Power:
By cutting out overtime, reducing shifts, idling
assembly lines, canceling re-stocking orders, reducing pensions, scaling-back
benefits, and laying off employees, there
has been a great contraction in wage-earning income and hence buying power--even
to the point where people are having trouble making their mortgage payments.
This
leads
to a chain
collision
of missed house payments, foreclosures, and evictions. Worse yet, it means
even more houses will be dumped onto a market that is already flooded with "excess
inventory."
3.) Credit, and the Perception of Credit-Worthiness:
As I've described before,
the economy is presently in a phase characterized by revaluation--as the
various market sectors probe for new market prices.(Economists
call this "Price Discovery.") Simultaneously, lenders are are positively
petrified to lend to their heretofore "credit worthy"
clients.
There
has been so much debt re-packaging that has gone on, that it is now very
difficult to reliably assess any accurate values of assets and to evaluate
loan risk
4.) Consumer Confidence
Much of the consumerism that built up in the US for the past 30 years was a Spendthrift
mentality, created by the bygone oceans of "Easy Credit". Both that
credit and the resultant spending are now gone. And I do mean gone.
In previous recessions, there had been brief declines in consumerism,
but I can foresee that this one one will be different. This will be more like
the 1930s,
where the
nation developed an entire generation of penny-pinchers. Don't get me wrong--I
consider
this a good thing! Saving is admirable. Overspending
is foolish. But from the standpoint of economic recovery, this could delay recovery
by several year, since a large portion of the economy had built up around the
concept of women with 25 pairs of shoes, and
men
with three sets of golf clubs
5.) For Many, the Hope of Retirement at Age 65:
Millions of American that were nearing retirement
have lost any hope of retiring. Aside for the holdings of a few crazy "gold
bugs" (like SurvivalBlog readers),
their IRAs and 401(k)s have been devastated. There are also some company pension
plans that have gone "poof" or that will surely be scaled back considerably.
I don't want to gloat, but those of you that took my advice three years ago
and sold their dollar-denominated investments and invested in tangibles have
come
through
the credit market collapse
virtually unscathed. Some of you even came out ahead. Meanwhile, those that
left their money in stock-heavy 401(k) accounts have been devastated. Losses
of
30% to 50% have been the norm. Ouch!
6.) Carefree Mobility:
Before the housing bubble burst, people could easily change
jobs, sell their houses (at a profit!) and move from coast to coast without
much inconvenience.
But to do so now constitutes major trial and tribulation. Up to 40% of people
with mortgaged homes now have negative equity--meaning that the remaining principal
of their mortgage now exceeds the market value of their house. (This is commonly
called being "upside down" in a mortgage.) So now, even for someone
that can make their mortgage payments, changing jobs to a new locale beyond
commute distance means losing their house and starting over. And if they go
with the "jingle mail" method, it means starting over with a ruined
credit rating.
7.) The Last Shreds of Job Security:
Following the trend set by Silicon Valley, when the "Dot.Com" bubble burst
in 2000, many industries are now getting positively ruthless about cost-cutting.
There is now a constant barrage of news of layoffs,
reduced benefits,
and cutting our perks. Don't expect "normality" to resume to the corporate
workplace in our generation. Any vestiges of "job
security" have become a thing of the past.
What Will Likely Continue to Be Destroyed:
1.) Further erosion of asset values.
The price of real estate (both residential
and commercial) will likely continue to decline until either A.) The economy
starts to recover, or B.) Inflation kicks in. If it is the latter, (which is
what I suspect, sooner or later), property prices will start to rise only
because general price inflation has grown. But this will be a false
recovery in real estate.
Real property values will continue to decline, while the currency
unit itself is
being destroyed. Yes, your house may be worth a several million dollars, but
what will a million dollars buy you in such times? The same may happen with
stocks.
In
the presence of inflation, news of a "stock
market rally" will
be nothing but fiction if the currency. Amidst the "Happy Days are here
again" hoopla,
real values will still be in the
dumpster.
2.) More job losses and further-reduced wage-earning hours
3.) More failed pension programs
4.) The dollar itself as a currency unit. This recent news article was a subtle
warning: The
Swiss central bank has already
fired the first shot in the global currency war. I expect large devaluations--both
formal and informal--by many nations in the near future. The bottom line is that
the US
Dollar
is
doomed.
What will Remain and Gain:
Tangibles, Tangibles, Tangibles! I've been harping on that theme in SurvivalBlog
for three years. Again, those of you that took my advice are mostly sitting
pretty. Silver and gold have doubled, as have ammunition and many full capacity
magazines. Productive farm and ranch land has held most of its value, while
at the same
time suburban
real
estate has plummeted. If you have not yet transitioned out of dollar-denominated
investments, then do so immediately. (The current stock rally is nothing
but a sucker
rally in
the larger context of secular bear stock market So this is a good opportunity
to bail
out.)
The present-day wave of deflation will likely be followed by a period of sharp
inflation. At
some point, all those trillions of "magically created out of thin
air" dollars
that will needed for the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
will inevitably catch up with the Dollar. My closing warning: Be
ready for some serious consumer price inflation, most likely starting in
2010.
« Letter Re: Some Observations at a Recent Gun Show |Main| Two Letters Re: Storing Food Without Refrigeration »
Letter Re: Supply and Demand at American Gun Stores
James,
We finally caught up on magazine sales in late February, filling our
last outstanding back orders, and I actually have a limited number of C Products
AR-15 magazines in stock and some Magpul PMags (which I really like). The
manufacturers tend to send out a half of an order and then a few weeks later,
the balance of it. They are clearly allocating inventory across their customer
base and I would estimate that they are running two to three months behind.
The delivery situation is getting worse, and my guess is that new orders
placed today would likely arrive in June or July.
Almost anything related to AR-15s/M4s is backordered. Spring
sets, repair kits, accessories, bolts and bolt carriers, etc. Even magazine
repair kits have dried up. I probably
have close to $4,000 worth of merchandise on back order from Brownell's for
our web-based store. Prices are rising as well. Wholesale cost on Glock magazines
have jumped to what used to be our retail sales price. We've seen a 60%
jump in the
wholesale price since the election.
The ability of these producers to ramp up production is limited. Many are running
extra shifts or hours on existing machines, but none of them want to add new
equipment because the capital expense will take so long to recoup. If the law
changes and their products are suddenly banned, their income will drop off
a cliff and the new debt burden could just force them into bankruptcy that
much sooner. So the pipeline is constrained due to the uncertain future. This
is another lesson in why it is better to prepare sooner than later.
My advice for anyone who wants to buy ammunition by the case lot and black
rifles is to try GunBroker.com.
I do not sell there, but I have been doing some personal buying there. Sellers
have items in stock, but prices are not
low as the auction format tends to float prices up when demand is high. Still,
you can buy ammo by the case, complete guns, complete lower [receiver]s and
stripped lowers as well as magazines and accessories.
I wish you continued success, safety and security, - Dave of (Captain
Dave's)
JWR Replies: That matches what I have been seeing. As recently
as September, an AR-15 "Lower Parts Kit" (the hammer, trigger, sear, pistol
grip, trigger guard and assorted
pins, springs
and detents needed to complete building a stripped AR-15
receiver) was selling for as little as $49. Today, they are very scarce, and
selling on Gunbroker.com for as much as $125 each! There are so many folks
frantically parting-up ARs that there is a genuine shortage of not just the
receivers themselves,
but also the little "fiddly bits" piece parts!
« Letter Re: Best Shotgun Pellet Size for Home Defense? |Main| Letter Re: Supply and Demand at American Gun Stores »
Letter Re: Some Observations at a Recent Gun Show
JWR,
I attended a gun show in a Southern state this weekend and wanted to share
my observations. I got there very early and was among the first ten in line.
By the time we were allowed to enter, the line was out the door of the building and around the corner. I'd estimate
around three hundred people in line. I left the show a mere hour later and
the room probably had in excess of eight-hundred people and the line was still quite long.
Ammo, of course, went fast. I was able to acquire all the ammo I desired, in
all my favorite calibers, with no problem, from my regular favorite vendor.
His prices were the same as four weeks earlier, which both surprised and pleased
me. Other ammo vendors were doing brisk business, as well, but some of their
prices were dramatically higher. By Sunday afternoon, my vendor had extinguished
their bulk ammo supply in .223.
My attendance was centered on finding a good deal on an AR-15 full upper, at
a decent price (a relative term, of course). Most AR-15 full uppers were going
for between $700-$1100, depending on manufacturer and features. The vendor from whom I'd planned on buying was,
surprisingly, not there. The very last table I came to, however, had five AR-15
carbine A3 uppers, made by Model 1 Sales, the vendor from whom I'd hoped to buy. Mine came out to $611
with bolt carrier assembly and charging handle, which was easily the best deal
at the show, since I'd seen the same basic configurations for $100-$500 more. Most astonishing was the deal I found on
Sunday when a vendor was laying out a used DPMS AR-15A2 in excellent condition
for a scant $799. She wouldn't hold it for me and by the time I returned with the necessary funding five minutes
later, it had been sold. Most fully assembled ARs, used or otherwise, were
going for $1,100-$2,500.
Magazines are definitely going up in price, dramatically. The [formerly
inexpensive fairly plentiful US government] contract O'Kay Industries AR-15 mags are
now $12-20 in used condition, and new ones are $15-25. P-MAGs at the show were
$28-35 and obviously becoming
scarce.
Springfield XD9 factory mags were going for $28-40, way up from the $21 each
that I had paid
just two months ago.
One last note. I picked up an ARMS rear sight #40 for $110 and even managed
to run across a brand new Vortex flash hider for $60 (I've been searching for
one for several months now). Average prices there, I guess, maybe a little high.
I've also noticed more and more private sales by people buying and selling
person to person, increasing one's odds of finding a good deal. Just the sort
of activity that makes Charles Schumer's hoplophobic blood curdle. I spent $1,500 at this show and got probably half
of what I could have bought a year ago for the same money. I suspect this time
next year will find me saying the same thing again. Ordnance...at inordinate prices.
May God bless your continued endeavors, - Shrike
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Letter Re: The Impact of FDIC Insurance Rate Increases on Small Banks
Mr. Rawles,
We live in mostly rural northeastern Oklahoma. Our local newspaper
just printed an informative editorial about FDIC changes which result in huge fee
increases for member bank. Here is an excerpt from the editorial Oklahoma
banks paying price for bailouts:
"Imagine paying $500 per year for your car insurance and then being told
it had gone up to $4,000 even though you have been a perfect driver with no accidents,
no moving violations. That’s the magnitude of premium increases local
bankers are facing. The local banks I spoke to had no part in the sub-prime
loan implosion and did not receive one cent from the bail out. However, they
were not expecting large “assessments” in addition to huge premium
increases. The first assessment, due September 30th, will likely be 4 times
larger than all of the premiums each bank paid in 2008. Another assessment,
half that size is anticipated before the end of 2009. To put this in perspective,
a bank that paid, for example $250,000 in total for 2008 would pay nearly
$500,000 per quarter this year, have an additional $1 million assessment
in September,
and another half million later in the year for a total of $3.5 million for
2009. So, if your bank fails, the Government takes your bank, if you operate
a fiscally responsible bank, the FDIC will now take a big chunk of your bank’s
money." [signed] Bailey Dabney, Publisher, Claremore Daily Progress
- Kevin A.
JWR Replies: A recent news story makes it clear why the FDIC
was forced to increases their rates: FDIC’s
Bair Says Insurance Fund Could
Be Insolvent This Year. (A hat tip to SurvivalBlog reader "Hin" for
the link.)
After the much-publicized Northern Rock bank run in England, the FDIC
felt obliged to double the insurance coverage for depositors. Without that
grandstanding move to set people at ease, bank runs might have started in the
US. But
despite increased insurance and greater scrutiny of member banks,
the fundamental flaw of fractional reserve banking remains: Only a small portion
of your deposits
is available for withdrawal at any given time. If public confidence collapses,
there will be large scale withdrawals, precipitating full-scale bank
runs. Be ready,
folks. If
bank
failures spiral out of control--and there is now a substantial risk of just that---things
could get very nasty,
very quickly. The
"final guarantor" for the FDIC is of
course the American
taxpayer. Promises will be kept, even if there are huge bank runs. Helicopter
Ben has plenty of paper and ink. It just may take a long time to print that
many greenbacks and set things back in order. But
in the
short
term,
if
there
is
a
banking
panic,
depositors
may
have
to wait six months or longer, to be reimbursed.
Keep a cash reserve
at home. Maintaining up to two month's wages, mostly in $20 bills, would be
prudent--if you can afford it! But don't just sit on a pile of greenbacks, diversify.
You should also keep some liquid tangibles on hand. By tangibles,
I mean
pre-1965
mint
date
circulated
"junk"
90% silver US dimes, quarters
and half dollars,
and
perhaps
a few
fractional gold coins. (Buy gold coins only after you have $1,000
face vale in silver for
each family member. The silver can act as your barter reserve.) Store your
coins in hidden
wall and door caches. You might also consider leaving a small
"sacrificial"
portion
of
your
coins
in your home gun vault--just in case you are forced to open your vault at gunpoint,
in the
unlikely event
that you are caught off guard in a
home
invasion robbery.
DO
NOT store
your precious
metals in a bank safe deposit box! In the event of "bank holiday",
you will not have access to your coins. I wouldn't be surprised to see all
safe
deposit
boxes
sealed, in the event that BHO channels FDR and
there is another 1933-style
gold confiscation. (Presumably, the box holder's first
access following a banking holiday would only be allowed under the watchful
eyes of authorities.) There are just a few private safe deposit companies that
are
not bank-owned, like
this one in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Those might be
immune from the depredations of grabby politicians, but don't count on it.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: The Impact of FDIC Insurance Rate Increases on Small Banks »
Two Letters Re: Voting With Your Feet--Comparing Economic Freedom in the 50 States
Jim:
When I read that academic study of economic freedom in the various states,
and saw the summary map, it was a strong piece of "ah-ha" confirmation
for me. It immediately struck me that what a close correlation there
is
to what you had posted two years ago in your State
Rankings on places to move with the best retreat potential. [in 19 western
states.] Independently, you
nailed those recommendations squarely, sir. Bonus Brownie points for
you! Wishing You The Lord's Blessings, - Ted J.
JWR,
I read through the PDF that you mention in your "Voting with your feet" post
. Today's prisoners could be tomorrow's Golden Hordes. I recently saw this
in the Wall
Street Journal. Prison
Population of a few states. The report also noted huge
discrepancies among the states in regard to the total corrections population
-- one of every
13 adults in Georgia and one of every 18 in Idaho at one end of the scale,
one of every 88 in New Hampshire at the other extreme." - Jonathan
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Hunkering Down or Storing Gear in a Commercial Building »
Letter Re: Voting With Your Feet--Comparing Economic Freedom in the 50 States
Mr. Rawles,
A study was conducted by William P. Ruger and Jason Sorens of the Mercatus
Center at George Mason University on a ranking of states basis on personal
and economic
freedoms.
It is titled:
Freedom in the 50 States:
Index of Personal and Economic Freedom. It encompasses
items such as income tax, gun laws and homeschooling (among many other areas).
My state unfortunately ranks in the bottom thirteen. As my family and
I search for another income means it may behoove us to "vote with our feet",
as you say.
Here is an abstract of the study:
Abstract
This paper presents the first-ever comprehensive ranking of the American
states on their public policies affecting individual freedoms in the economic,
social,
and personal spheres. We develop and justify our ratings and aggregation
procedure on explicitly normative criteria, defining individual freedom
as the ability
to dispose of one’s own life, liberty, and justly acquired property however
one sees fit, so long as one does not coercively infringe on other individuals’ ability
to do the same.
This study improves on prior attempts to score economic freedom for American
states in three primary ways: 1) it includes measures of social and personal
freedoms such as peaceable citizens’ rights to educate their own children,
own and carry firearms, and be free from unreasonable search and seizure; 2)
it includes far more variables, even on economic policies alone, than prior
studies, and there are no missing data on any variable; 3) we adopt new, more
accurate
measurements of key variables, particularly state fiscal policies.
We find that the freest states in the country are New Hampshire, Colorado, and
South Dakota, which together achieve a virtual tie for first place. All three
states feature low taxes and government spending and middling levels of regulation
and paternalism. New York is the least free by a considerable margin, followed
by New Jersey, Rhode Island, California and Maryland. On personal freedom alone,
Alaska is the clear winner, while Maryland brings up the rear. As for freedom
in the different regions of the country, the Mountain and West North Central
regions are the freest overall while the Middle Atlantic lags far behind on both
economic and personal freedom. Regression analysis demonstrates that states enjoying
more economic and personal freedom tend to attract substantially higher rates
of internal net migration.
The data used to create the rankings are publicly available online at www.statepolicyindex.com,
and we invite others to adopt their own weights to see how the overall state
freedom rankings change.
God Bless and thank you for all you do, - John in Ohio
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The Long Arm of the Lawless, by Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
Last week [in a STRATFOR briefing] we discussed the impact that crime, and
specifically kidnapping, has been having on Mexican citizens and foreigners
visiting or
living in Mexico.
We pointed out that there is almost no area of Mexico immune from the crime
and violence. As if on cue, on the night of Feb. 21 a group of heavily armed
men threw two grenades at a police building in Zihuatanejo, Guerrero state,
wounding at least five people. Zihuatanejo is a normally quiet beach resort
just north of Acapulco; the attack has caused the town's entire police force
to go on strike. (Police strikes, or threats of strikes, are not uncommon in
Mexico.)
Mexican police have regularly been targeted by drug cartels, with police officials
even having been forced to seek safety in the United States, but such incidents
have occurred most frequently in areas of high cartel activity like Veracruz
state or Palomas. The Zihuatanejo incident is proof of the pervasiveness of
violence in Mexico, and demonstrates the impact that such violence quickly
can have on an area generally considered safe.
Significantly, the impact of violent Mexican criminals stretches far beyond
Mexico itself. In recent weeks, Mexican criminals have been involved in killings
in Argentina, Peru and Guatemala, and Mexican criminals have been arrested
as far away as Italy and Spain. Their impact -- and the extreme violence they
embrace -- is therefore not limited to Mexico or even just to Latin America.
For some years now, STRATFOR has discussed the threat that Mexican cartel violence
could spread to the United States, and we have chronicled the spread of such
violence to the U.S.-Mexican border and beyond.
Traditionally, Mexican drug-trafficking organizations had focused largely on
the transfer of narcotics through Mexico. Once the South American cartels encountered
serious problems bringing narcotics directly into the United States, they began
to focus more on transporting the narcotics to Mexico. From that point, the
Mexican cartels transported them north and then handed them off to U.S. street
gangs and other organizations, which handled much of the narcotics distribution
inside the United States. In recent years, however, these Mexican groups have
grown in power and have begun to take greater control of the entire narcotics-trafficking
supply chain.
With greater control comes greater profitability as the percentages demanded
by middlemen are cut out. The Mexican cartels have worked to have a greater
presence in Central and South America, and now import from South America into
Mexico an increasing percentage of the products they sell. They are also diversifying
their routes and have gone global; they now even traffic their wares to Europe.
At the same time, Mexican drug-trafficking organizations also have increased
their distribution operations inside the United States to expand their profits
even further. As these Mexican organizations continue to spread beyond the
border areas, their profits and power will extend even further -- and they
will bring their culture of violence to new areas.
Burned in Phoenix
The spillover of violence from Mexico began some time ago in border towns like
Laredo and El Paso in Texas, where merchants and wealthy families face extortion
and kidnapping threats from Mexican gangs, and where drug dealers who refuse
to pay "taxes" to Mexican cartel bosses are gunned down. But now,
the threat posed by Mexican criminals is beginning to spread north from the
U.S.-Mexican border. One location that has felt this expanding threat most
acutely is Phoenix, some 185 miles north of the border. Some sensational cases
have highlighted the increased threat in Phoenix, such as a June 2008 armed
assault in which a group of heavily armed cartel gunmen dressed like a Phoenix
Police Department tactical team fired more than 100 rounds into a residence
during the targeted killing of a Jamaican drug dealer who had double-crossed
a Mexican cartel. We have also observed cartel-related violence in places like
Dallas and Austin, Texas. But Phoenix has been the hardest hit.
Narcotics smuggling and drug-related assassinations are not the only thing
the Mexican criminals have brought to Phoenix. Other criminal gangs have been
heavily involved in human smuggling, arms smuggling, money laundering and other
crimes. Due to the confluence of these Mexican criminal gangs, Phoenix has
now become the kidnapping-for-ransom capital of the United States. According
to a Phoenix Police Department source, the department received 368 kidnapping
reports last year. As we discussed last week, kidnapping is a highly underreported
crime in places such as Mexico, making it very difficult to measure accurately.
Based upon experience with kidnapping statistics in other parts of the world
-- specifically Latin America -- it would not be unreasonable to assume that
there were at least as many unreported kidnappings in Phoenix as there are
reported kidnappings.
At present, the kidnapping environment in the United States is very different
from that of Mexico, Guatemala or Colombia. In those countries, kidnapping
runs rampant and has become a well-developed industry with a substantial established
infrastructure. Police corruption and incompetence ensures that kidnappers
are rarely caught or successfully prosecuted.
A variety of motives can lie behind kidnappings. In the United States, crime
statistics demonstrate that motives such as sexual exploitation, custody disputes
and short-term kidnapping for robbery have far surpassed the number of reported
kidnappings conducted for ransom. In places like Mexico, kidnapping for ransom
is much more common.
The FBI handles kidnapping investigations in the United States. It has developed
highly sophisticated teams of agents and resources to devote to investigating
this type of crime. Local police departments are also far more proficient and
professional in the United States than in Mexico. Because of the advanced capabilities
of law enforcement in the United States, the overwhelming majority of criminals
involved in kidnapping-for-ransom cases reported to police -- between 95 percent
and 98 percent -- are caught and convicted. There are also stiff federal penalties
for kidnapping. Because of this, kidnapping for ransom has become a relatively
rare crime in the United States.
Most kidnapping for ransom that does happen in the United States occurs within
immigrant communities. In these cases, the perpetrators and victims belong
to the same immigrant group (e.g., Chinese Triad gangs kidnapping the families
of Chinese businesspeople, or Haitian criminals kidnapping Haitian immigrants)
-- which is what is happening in Phoenix. The vast majority of the 368 known
kidnapping victims in Phoenix are Mexican and Central American immigrants who
are being victimized by Mexican or Mexican-American criminals.
The problem in Phoenix involves two main types of kidnapping. One is the abduction
of drug dealers or their children, the other is the abduction of illegal aliens.
Drug-related kidnappings often are not strict kidnappings for ransom per se.
Instead, they are intended to force the drug dealer to repay a debt to the
drug trafficking organization that ordered the kidnapping.
Non-drug-related kidnappings are very different from traditional kidnappings
in Mexico or the United States, in which a high-value target is abducted and
held for a large ransom. Instead, some of the gangs operating in Phoenix are
basing their business model on volume, and are willing to hold a large number
of victims for a much smaller individual pay out. Reports have emerged of kidnapping
gangs in Phoenix carjacking entire vans full of illegal immigrants away from
the coyote smuggling them into the United States. The kidnappers then transport
the illegal immigrants to a safe house, where they are held captive in squalid
conditions -- and often tortured or sexually assaulted with a family member
listening in on the phone -- to coerce the victims' family members in the United
States or Mexico to pay the ransom for their release. There are also reports
of the gangs picking up vehicles full of victims at day labor sites and then
transporting them to the kidnapping safe house rather than to the purported
work site.
Drug-related kidnappings are less frequent than the nondrug-related abduction
of illegal immigrants, but in both types of abductions, the victims are not likely
to seek police assistance due to their immigration status or their involvement
in illegal activity. This strongly suggests the kidnapping problem greatly exceeds
the number of cases reported to police.
Implications for the United States
The kidnapping gangs in Phoenix that target illegal immigrants have found their
chosen crime to be lucrative and relatively risk-free. If the flow of illegal
immigrants had continued at high levels, there is very little doubt the kidnappers'
operations would have continued as they have for the past few years. The current
economic downturn, however, means the flow of illegal immigrants has begun to
slow -- and by some accounts has even begun to reverse. (Reports suggest many
Mexicans are returning home after being unable to find jobs in the United States.)
This reduction in the pool of targets means that we might be fast approaching
a point where these groups, which have become accustomed to kidnapping as a source
of easy money -- and their primary source of income -- might be forced to change
their method of operating to make a living. While some might pursue other types
of criminal activity, some might well decide to diversify their pool of victims.
Watching for this shift in targeting is of critical importance. Were some of
these gangs to begin targeting U.S. citizens rather than just criminals or illegal
immigrants, a tremendous panic would ensue, along with demands to catch the perpetrators.
Such a shift would bring a huge amount of law enforcement pressure onto the kidnapping
gangs, to include the FBI. While the FBI is fairly hard-pressed for resources
given its heavy counterterrorism, foreign counterintelligence and white-collar
crime caseload, it almost certainly would be able to reassign the resources needed
to respond to such kidnappings in the face of publicity and a public outcry.
Such a law enforcement effort could neutralize these gangs fairly quickly, but
probably not quickly enough to prevent any victims from being abducted or harmed.
Since criminal groups are not comprised of fools alone, at least some of these
groups will realize that targeting soccer moms will bring an avalanche of law
enforcement attention upon them. Therefore, it is very likely that if kidnapping
targets become harder to find in Phoenix -- or if the law enforcement environment
becomes too hostile due to the growing realization of this problem -- then the
groups may shift geography rather than targeting criteria. In such a scenario,
professional kidnapping gangs from Phoenix might migrate to other locations with
large communities of Latin American illegal immigrants to victimize. Some of
these locations could be relatively close to the Mexican border like Dallas,
Houston, San Antonio, San Diego or Los Angeles, though they could also include
locations farther inland like Chicago, Atlanta, New York, or even the communities
around meat and poultry packing plants in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic states.
Such a migration of ethnic criminals would not be unprecedented: Chinese Triad
groups from New York for some time have traveled elsewhere on the East Coast,
like Atlanta, to engage in extortion
and kidnapping against Chinese businessmen there.
The issue of Mexican drug-traffic organizations kidnapping in the United States
merits careful attention, especially since criminal gangs in other areas of the
country could start imitating the tactics of the Phoenix gangs.
(This article re-posted to SurvivalBlog with the permission of STRATFOR.com.)
« Letter Re: US Dollar Slide Versus Iraqi Dinars |Main| Note from JWR: »
Self Defense and Christianity, by Tim P.
When Christians talk of self-defense and their reaction to violence in general,
they frequently speak of turning the other cheek. While I would not attempt to
dissuade someone from that point of view I have always been against that type
of pacifism in the face of violence – particularly in the case of deadly
violence. In the extreme example of self-defense against someone who wants to
kill you – people who advocate turning the other cheek advocate throwing
away God’s gift of life or worse yet not defending those you love when
their lives are threatened. That I could not do, after all Christ Himself said:
“Greater love has no one than this, that he lay down his life for his friends.” John
15:14
Also, according to the Old Testament people are allowed to defend against thieves.
“If a thief is caught breaking in and is struck so that he dies, the defender
is not guilty of bloodshed” Exodus 22:2
Trying to steal the rest of your life – or the lives of your loved ones – is
certainly stealing from my point of view.
For those of you who will say we should turn the other cheek and depend upon
the police or government, to defend us from deadly threats or criminal activity – would
you bet your life on it? Is paying someone else to defend you and yours somehow
more honorable and Christian? Even if the police just happen to be in the area
at the critical moment, the courts have determined that government has
no duty
to defend any particular citizen. Please read that sentence again! This
may seem hard to believe, but it is from an appellate court decision in the case
of Warren
v. District of Columbia circa 1981. A group of women were attacked in their
home and called the police for help. The police failed to respond and for the
next
14 hours these women were under the direct control of the brutal intruders. The
women later sued, but the court found in favor of the government under the fundamental
principle of American law that a government and its agents are under no general
duty to provide public services, such as police protection, to any individual
citizen. Most people have no idea that this is the case. You cannot depend upon
the government to protect you. If you don’t believe me look up the case
for yourself.
Why, you may ask, would I want to write about this? It may seem far removed from
our church today. However, there have been a number of cases lately where churches
have been the target of violent and deadly attacks. In just about all of them
the people there were probably under the assumption that they were immune from
these attacks. A few recent examples of these attacks are the Tennessee Valley
Unitarian Universalist Church in Knoxville, Tennessee where two congregants were
killed
in
July
of 2008, The New Life Church in Colorado Springs, Colorado where another two
were killed
in
December of 2007 (this church had armed guards so they were prepared for something
to happen), thus only two members were killed. The First Congregational Church
in
Neosho, Missouri where three were killed in August of 2007, the shooting at The
Ministry of Jesus Christ Church in North Baton Rouge, Louisiana in May of 2006
where
fie were
killed, and the shooting at the Living Church of God in Brookfield, Wisconsin
where
seven were killed
in March of 2005. I could go on but I think my point has been made.
Whatever the reason for the attacks our course is clear: we, as Christians, must
defend ourselves and our church against such attacks by whatever means available.
This has been how some of these shootings were stopped. In one case the shooter
was subdued by members of the congregation, in another the shooter was killed
by a member of the congregation who was serving as a guard. In the others the
shooter killed himself or just left the church when he was “done” with
the shooting. Which outcome would you prefer to see? The shooter subdued or killed
by the congregation or to be allowed to shoot until he is “done?” I
prefer one of the first two options.
Am I advocating armed guards at our church? I am not, I just want people to know
that it can happen and we can and should be prepared to defend ourselves – to
throw the good book at our attacker! After all, when protecting one's family
or neighbors, a Christian is unselfishly risking his or her life for the sake
of others. How can that be a bad thing?
Let us look at turning the other cheek, as Jesus says: “If someone strikes
you on the right cheek, turn to him the other also.” Matthew
5:39
Yet even Jesus did not do this in the literal sense! When he was struck in the
face by one of the officials while being questioned by the high priest he does
not turn the other cheek. Instead he says:
“If I said something wrong, testify as to what is wrong. But if I spoke
the truth,
why did you strike me?” John 18:23
We can see too from his actions that Jesus himself was not completely non-violent.
After all, he did go after the moneychangers in the temple with a whip!
“In the temple courts he found men selling cattle, sheep and doves, and
others sitting at tables exchanging money. So he made a whip out of cords, and
drove
all from the temple area, both sheep and cattle; he scattered the coins of the
money changers and overturned their tables.” John 2:14-15
If someone came after you with a whip and overturned your tables and generally
made a wreck of the area, would you say that was non-violence? No you’d
probably call the police and want him taken away! Was Jesus turning the other
cheek in this case? I think not. He saw a wrong and righted it through violent
means. Also, prior to his crucifixion, Jesus revealed to his disciples the hostility
they faced in the future and gave them the following advice:
“But now, whoever has a purse, let him take it, and likewise a wallet.
Whoever
has none, let him sell his cloak, and buy a sword.” “The disciples
said, ‘See, Lord, here are two swords.’ ‘That is enough,’ he
replied.” Luke 22:36 & 38
He asked if they had weapons. When they said they did he did not rebuke them,
but instead said they had enough. To me this is proof that they were allowed
to defend themselves if needed.
Later, when Jesus is betrayed by Judas at the Garden, Peter draws his sword and
asks,
“Lord, should we strike with our swords?” Luke 22:49
He apparently does not wait for an answer and strikes Malchus, the servant of
the high priest and cuts off his ear. This does not make Jesus happy and he says:
"Put your sword away! Shall I not drink the cup the Father has given me?" John
18:11
And [a parallel verse] from Mathew:
“Put your sword back in its place,” Jesus said to him, “for
all who draw the sword will die by the sword. Do you think I cannot call on my
Father,
and he will at once put at my disposal more than twelve legions of angels? But
how then would the Scriptures be fulfilled that say it must happen in this way?” Mathew
26:52-54
Note that Jesus does not rebuke Peter for trying to defend Him. He rebukes him
for trying to change what must happen, the pre-ordained future that God has laid
out for Jesus. Despite the appearance of their being outnumbered by the others,
Jesus says He could call in more than 12 legions (a legion is 1,000) of angels.
This would easily overpower the group of people there to assist in and/or view
the arrest of Jesus. In Mathew’s version He does say that those who draw
the sword will die by the sword, but is that an admonition against all use of
weapons to defend oneself? The people coming to arrest Jesus were not threatening
His life at that point, so Peter really had no justification for violence against
them.
This being said, it is clear to me that defending Christianity using violence
is not allowed. If your religion is being attacked or you are being attacked
for your religion, you are not allowed to use force. In fact, I believe that
this is the true meaning of turning the other cheek. True Christians do not attack
people who attack their faith. They turn the other cheek – they take the
abuse of their faith. For example, Stephen does not fight back or even try to
escape when he was stoned for his testimony about Jesus.
While they were stoning him, Stephen prayed,
"Lord Jesus, receive my spirit." Then he fell on his knees and cried
out, "Lord,
do not hold this sin against them." Acts 7:59-60
And Jesus says that Christians will be persecuted to the end.
“All men will hate you because of me, but he who stands firm to the end
will be
saved.” Mathew 10:22
Of course it is a personal decision to defend yourself or others. However, in
a fallen world like ours, we all need to think about these things ahead of time
so that we have an idea what course we may take if we are ever put into the position
of having to choose. It’s too late to do much thinking at that point, that
is the time for action. - Tim P.
« Letter Re: Deep Apprehension About Dangers in the Near Future |Main| Self Defense and Christianity, by Tim P. »
Letter Re: US Dollar Slide Versus Iraqi Dinars
Mr. Rawles,
I just wanted to drop you a line and tell you I enjoy your blog daily and have
read it almost from the start. I am currently in Iraq a little North of Joint
Base Balad. On the local economy the Iraqi Dinar is 1000 dinars to 1 American dollar. However, the past few months if you want to pay
with American dollars in the local economy, they are discounting it by 66%.
What 1000 dinars buys, 1 dollar used to buy. Now it cost 3 dollars.
At the local Iraqi police academy there is a stall that sells a type of coconut
candy bar that I enjoy. They are now sold "three for 1000 Dinars" or
one for one American dollar. It is amazing watching dirt poor Iraqis look at
the dollar
with disdain.
Keep up the good fight! - Clement in Iraq
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: US Dollar Slide Versus Iraqi Dinars »
Letter Re: Deep Apprehension About Dangers in the Near Future
Mr. Rawles:
I, as well as possibly tens of thousands of my fellow Americans,
are extremely fearful that the United States Government is slowly becoming
like the former Soviet Union and that the day will come when the citizenry
is in serious trouble. I continue to prepare as best I can for my family in
the
event
it
all comes
crashing down but I cannot see where I will prevail long against American soldiers,
police, and gangs that might try to harm me and my family. I am further
afraid because I do not know Jesus Christ as my Savior and it seems that I
cannot
find a way in which to communicate with Him. Just know that
there are those of us who look up to you for advice and comfort and please
keep up the fine work that you do on our behalf. Respectfully, - John B. in
Colorado
JWR Replies: The wonderful thing about Christ's love is that
there is no intermediary required. He knows all of his elect by name. Salvation
is yours, if you merely ask
for it. Just open you heart in prayer. Ask first
for His forgiveness, recognize Christ's sacrificial death and resurrection.
That is salvation in a nutshell. Once saved, ask for guidance, providence,
and protection.
Please don't look to me as an authority for any advice on truly big survival
issues. I just know a few little nuts and bolts on preparedness. The
big, substantive issues are all matters for
prayer. Trust in God to put you in the right place, at the right time,
with the right people.
To start, I can offer a couple of pieces of encouragement, found in scripture:
In the New Testament, see Philippians
4:13, and in the Old Testament, see: Psalm
91.
My recommended initial reading for anyone not familiar with the Bible is the
book of John. All things are possible, through Christ, who gives us strength!
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Advice on Night Vision Gear »
Three Letters Re: The Feeding Frenzy Continues--Gun Store Shelves are Depleted
JWR:
I saw the article on how Cabela’s shares surged based on gun sales.
Let me tell you, we are in the midst of a feeding frenzy here in Colorado.
First, its not just guns, its all of the accessories as well. I had to return
some items from Christmas to Sportsman’s Warehouse and found that the
whole gun department was basically empty. They only had some black powder firearms
and a couple of shotguns. Nothing else. I had run into this before Christmas
when I bought my two oldest boys new elk rifles – and got the last .308
bolt action and the last .30-06 bolt action to be had. But I figured after Christmas things would be better. Well, they
are not. So unless you shoot something
odd like a .22-250 forget getting ammunition right now let alone a gun. And
the cleaning kits were sold out as well. And holsters, ammo belts – you
name it and if it was shooting related it was gone.
Now in my wanderings in the store I also found that communications
gear is also disappearing off the shelves. I had a brief conversation with the kid
that was working there and it turns out that this is another trend they are
seeing. Basically all of the walkie-talkie units that can take ear buds or
microphones are gone. The only things left are some cheap FRS units. The same
thing was at work with the flashlights – all of the better units (like
the Surefire models) were gone. I begin to wonder what is at work here – am
I being paranoid or is this the next run on “near tactical” equipment?
Now I shoot as much as I can when I am in country so I go through a lot of
reloading supplies and bulk ammunition. I have been told by some of the national
dealers that I buy from (in bulk lots of 10 cases per caliber per order) that
they are almost all sold out as well. One sales person related to me that they
had run through over 10,000 cases of .223 that week alone and could not keep
any in stock. Common calibers are gone – 9mm, .45 ACP, .38/.357, .223,
.308, 7.62x39 – and less common ones such as the .40 are hard to get.
So unless you happen to be shooting something that is very uncommon, keep your
eyes open. I did however with a week of scrounging manage to come up with
one box of 7.62 match grade ammo – the 175 grain M118 loading. Fortunately
my long range precision gun likes this ammo so I bought it.
This is one trend that if you were not way out in front and loading up on ammunition,
guns, and accessories, you would not be able to catch up now. - Hugh D.
Hi Jim,
FYI, just got done shopping at Midway [for ammunition handloading components]
and all of the .308 150 grain soft nosed bullets priced at $25.00/100 and
under are
gone.
All
gone!
This
includes
all round
nose and flat point for 30-30. Only some of the
premium stuff is available. The next best
deal is a Lapua 150 grain at $42.00/100. Guess I'll have to top off with
the only decent spitzer, a 125 grain Sierra Pro-Hunter at $22/100 if I can't
find 150 grainers
elsewhere. I suppose these can be reliable through a[n M1]
Garand and are
certainly adequate for deer. I've also shopped all over for loaded 9mm Luger
JHP and
it's all gone as well. Yes I shoulda got the XD-.45 instead,
yet common ammunition that can be shared with the rest of the family and
in case the gun fails
the ammo would not be wasted. I have plenty, but more would be nice. The
same can be said for the cheap 7.62x39 and M2 ball (.30-06). All gone, everywhere.
There does appear to be some 7.62 NATO out
there.
Cabela's seems to have a fair selection of all .308 spire point bullets
and 9mm/.45ACP
JHP,
and a very limited amount (500 rounds) of the cheap 7.62x39, and limited
quantities
of .223 and .308.
The run on ammunition continues and is amazing. A report from the latest
gun show in our area described [buyers with] dollies stacked with cases
that emptied the place within
three hours. What is the most shocking is that reloading components are also
disappearing. - E.L.
Jim:
News of the [U.S.]Attorney General asking for renewal of the Assault Weapons
ban (on behalf of Obama) went out across the Internet last night [Wednesday,
Feb.
25th.] Here was the result I saw: There was a line of about eight guys
in front of my local gun shop this morning, waiting for the doors to open.
This was at 9 a.m. on a Thursday morning, mind you. I was one of them.
Most of the guys looked to be in their 30s and 40s--so we were taking time
away from work to be there. (In my case, it was a "dental emergency".
Obama has
me grinding my teeth at night!) We got in the door, and I immediately saw there
wasn't much left on the shelves--mostly just pump [shot]guns
and
bolt-action
[rifle]s.
There
were
just
two centerfire semi[automatic]s in the rack: some POS no-name
AK that
looked like it was built from a beater parts kit, and one of those woosie S&W AR[-15] clones
with no flash hider on but with the Mossy-Breakup camouflage
paint job. Those both sold in the first few minutes. The owner said that he
doesn't
expect
[to
receive] any more black
guns for three or four months!
One thing you definitely
had nailed: They did not have a single high-cap magazine
left in the store,
except the
one
that
came
in the
mag well of the AK I mentioned.
I cleaned out the last of their .45
and .308 ammo--just a few boxes. There was not a round of 9mm, .223, of
7.62 [x39mm] Russian to be found. Those was some slim pickin's! I wonder:
What will they have
left by
Saturday night? - Ray H. in Virginia
« Letter Re: Buying Kindle Reader for Accessing Survival References? |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Depression Proof Jobs for a 20 Year Depression - Part 1: The Counter-Cyclical Jobs
The current economic downward spiral has prompted several SurvivalBlog readers
to write me and ask: "My job is now at risk, so what are the safe jobs?"
I've actually addressed this topic fairly well since I started SurvivalBlog
in 2005. We ran a
"best recession-proof jobs" poll, back in May
of 2006. Then, in February, 2007, we ran a
poll on "Best Occupations for Both Before and After TEOTWAWKI".
Later, we even ran a
poll on the current occupations
of SurvivalBlog readers. In the past three years, we've also
posted a panoply of more detailed employment-related letters and articles on
subjects such as:
How
to set up a home-based second business,
Bartering
skills,
Home-based
mail order businesses,
Small
sawmills,
Gunsmithing,
Handloading
ammunition,
Horse
breeding,
Rabbit
breeding,
Small
machine shops,
Selling
and bartering through Freecycle,
Selling
and bartering through Craig's List, and
19th
Century Trades.
And those were just the ones that I found in a cursory 10-minute search of
the SurvivalBlog archives. There are many more. Just type a topic
into the "Search Posts on SurvivalBlog:" box at the top of the right -hand
bar.
(We now have
nearly 6,200 archived articles,
letters, and quotes!)
Which Jobs Were Safe in the 1930s?
One good insight on the near future can be found in the past. (As Mark Twain
said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.")
According to statistics
published
some 20 years ago by Dr.Ravi
Batra, the safest businesses
and industries
during
the
worst
years
of the Great
Depression
(1929-1933) were:
Repair shops
Educational services (A lot of young men that couldn't find work borrowed money
to go to trade schools and college.)
Healthcare services
Bicycle shops
Bus transportation
Gasoline service stations
Second hand stores
Legal services
Drug or proprietary stores
To bring Batra's list up to date, I would speculatively add a few more
sectors and business that are likely to do well in the next
depression:
Home security and locksmithing (since a higher crime rate is inevitable
in bad economic times.)
Entertainment and diversions, such as DVD sales and rentals. People will
undoubtedly want to escape their
troubles!
Truck farming and large scale vegetable gardening (since just 2% of the population
now feeds the other 98%--whereas back in the 1930s the US was still a predominantly
agrarian society)
Export consumer goods. (Starting in late 2009 or early 2010, the US Dollar
is likely to resume its slide versus most other currencies)
Tomorrow, I'll post Part 2 of this article, in which I will focus
on home-based businesses.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Recommendation for Mara Helland »
Letter Re: The Risk to Reward Ratio in Getting Concealed Carry Permits
JWR;
One option to consider for a Concealed Carry Permit would be to apply
for a non-resident permit from the State of Florida. Florida's Dept of Agriculture
issues permits to non-Floridians and the application process and requirements
are less restrictive than in my home state of Arkansas. The training requirements
are very generous. Along with traditional types of training, they will accept
firearms training courses conducted by your state or any NRA-certified instructor;
a hunter's education course, or even a Form DD-214 for military members or
veterans. The cost is reasonable and Florida
has one of the best reciprocity programs in the nation. [JWR Adds: Florida
concealed carry permits are recognized
in 23 states!]
For OPSEC,
holding a Florida non-resident permit in another state allows the holder a
little anonymity against the release of public records. Just a
few
days ago, I came across an Excel spreadsheet listing names and addresses of
every permit holder in my state plus the state of Tennessee. The list did not
disclose the names of Arkansas or Tennessee residents that hold Florida permits.
The application process is very straight-forward and can be requested on the
Florida web site.
- RDC, Arkansas
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Preparing Your Feet for TEOTWAWKI, by The Surgeon »
Three Letters Re: The Risk to Reward Ratio in Getting Concealed Carry Permits
Sir:
Some states allow for the public release of permit holders names and sometimes
address. Newspapers have requested these lists (since they are public information)
and then published them.
Other states (like Minnesota, and others) makes it a crime to release to the
public who is a permit holder. - X.
James,
This headline says it all: Dateline Feb. 17, 2009 in The Miami Herald: Florida
can't keep up with concealed weapons permit requests.
Regards, - Jim H.
Mr. Rawles,
Thanks for your very reasonable and level-headed response on concealed carry
permits. I agree that you they aren't for everyone! I wish that I
lived where I only had to worry about predators with four legs. But living
where I do (in
Virginia), we have lots of two-legged predators and I would
feel naked without my XD .45. (I got the "Compact" version.) I used to
carry a Commander-size Kimber 1911, as I used to be a M1911 Die Hard, but nowadays
I practically
speak Croatian.) [JWR
Adds: To explain his comment to the uninitiated, the Springfield Armory
XD-series auto pistols are made in Croatia.] My family will soon have two XDs,
since
my wife
is signing
up
for the Front
Sight "Get a Gun" package deal. We want to get back out
there while the weather is still cool. (Summer at Front Sight is an oven set
to "BROIL".)
Their
XD package is an amazing bargain, and the training is superb. It is absolutely worth
the travel expense! I recommend
it
to everyone
that reads SurvivalBlog. Put that training at the top of your "Priorities list."
Without proper training you are just a "pistol owner", not a competent shooter.
I had no idea how incompetent I was until I went to take the training. It takes
some humility to admit that, but I really was incompetent, and just thought that
I was good shooter.
By the by, I am buying every XD magazine that I can lay my cotton-pickin'
hands on at a good price. Since
they
are imported, these mags could be under risk of an import ban, soon. One
of your recent posters mentioned he saw high mag prices at gun shows. That
is
true, but there
are
still some bargains out there, by mail order. [JWR Adds: I
highly recommend 44Mag.com, CDNN
Sports, MidwayUSA,
and Natchez
Shooter's Supply, as low-costs sources for full capacity magazines.
Buy plenty, now, while they
are still reasonably-priced!]
My XD is a my constant companion, kinda like an American Express card. I "don't
leave home without it." - Riggins in Virginia
« The Winning Edge: Safe Dry Practice, by John Parker, Jr. |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Letter Re: The Risk to Reward Ratio in Getting Concealed Carry Permits
Jim,
Thank you for your excellent site. I'm here every day.
My wife and I are considering getting Concealed Weapons Permits. Do you recommend
getting a permit? Is it a good idea, or is it a red flag that would attract
the unwanted attention of our government officials? Do you have a permit? I
would appreciate your insight. - The Forester
JWR Replies: I do not have a CCW permit,
but I have the benefit of living in an open
carry state. I don't issue any blanket advice on concealed carry. Everyone
has to weigh the risks and benefits of licensure for themselves, in their
own particular circumstances. Since I live in a lightly-populated region
with low crime, I decided that the high profile that goes along with getting
a CCW permit wasn't justifiable. I am far more worried about being mauled
by a bear when out berry picking than I am getting mugged. Street crime is
virtually unheard of here in TUWS.
(Robert Heinlein was right: An armed society is a polite society.)
Again, the decision on whether or not to get a CCW permit is personal judgment
call. For many SurvivalBlog readers living in high crime areas, getting a permit
would probably be advisable.
BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and perhaps
the Dakotas all "going Alaska" in the next few years--dropping the
requirement for a CCW for carry inside city limits. This has been the case
in Vermont since time immemorial, and the
CCW permit requirement for inside city limits was recently dropped in Alaska.
(In many southern and western states it is already legal to carry conceal outside of
city limits.)
« Letter Re: It Looks Like the End is Beginning |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: Gun Show Report--The Full Capacity Magazine Feeding Frenzy Continues
Mr. Rawles:
I took your
advice you posted last year and have been investing in some high cap
magazines. I've bought about $2,000 worth since the [November 2008 presidential]
election,
and I haven't had any second thoughts. Thank you sir, your advice is making
me a tidy profit. The 75-round
Romanian [RPK]
drums that I bought for $135 each the day after the election are now going
for $250
each.
And the
31-round
Glock 9
milly magazines
that I paid $33.50 each for are now going for $65 each. Oh, I found +2 [magazine
floorplate extension]s for those, so now they are all 33 rounders. I figure
those mags will
be over $100 each in a couple of months.
My real coup de largesse was this past weekend, when I went to a
local gun show here in Texas. (There is a gun show just about every weekend,
somewhere
in Texas. Some just take a day of driving to get to!) The place was a mad house. It
took 30+ minutes to stand in line just to pay to get in the door. People were
buying mil surplus ammo and magazines like crazy.
Basically the ammo and mags were all sold out by noon on Saturday. And most
of the "black guns" were sold
out
buy
the
time they closed the doors Saturday night. Prices on magazines have basically
doubled since the election.
Anyway, just after the show opened,
I was scanning the tables, looking for high cap magazines--what else--when
I spied
a Mini-14 GB
stainless, with an original Ruger-made 30-round magazine tucked up next to
it. I was about to ask [the seller] if he'd sell the magazine separately, when I glanced
at
the
gun's
price
tag:
$400! I just about died of an infarction on the spot. That is a great price
on a fairly scarce model. (The "GB" is the LEO-sales
model, with factory-installed flash-hider.) The seller--a nice old gentleman
and
a Korean War vet--said that
he had put
less
than 500 rounds through it. The rifle's looks matched the story, so I whipped
out
four Franklins and a copy of my driver's license to show I was
"Free, white and 21". Anyway, we got all set (private party sale--my only way
to business) to get the gun out the door, and the old timer says, "Oh
wait, don't forget the [factory shipping] box, and the magazines, they come
with
it." He
reaches under the table and lifts up a shoe box full of original Ruger 20s
and 30s,
some of
them
still
in
the white boxes! I nearly had a second heart attack. There were
11 [magazines in the box, of which] six were 30 rounders. That's like $900
worth of magazines,
these days! Later at the show I also scored four 20 round Beretta M92 "Robocop"
mags, two [Steyr] AUG 42-rounders
for $30 each, five AR-10 mags
(for just $40 each--I've seen them advertised on Buddy's board for $80 apiece!),
a
half-dozen
"Okay
[Industries]" M16 mags,
and big box of nearly new [Austrian] STG[-58] FN/FAL magazines--which
for some weird reason are still around $15! I bought
23 of those. I talked the guy down to $12 per, since I cleaned
him out.
Speaking of FAL .308 mags, my next purchase (already agreed, by phone) will
be a DSA [FN/]FAL clone. I have to drive 115 miles each way to pick it up.
I found it private party, [listed] on GunsAmerica.com.
I'm now tapped out, but my dad
is
lending
me the cash. I explained the situation, and he says that it is wise to buy
it. [He said:] "We'll have a good chuckle about the price, in a year or two!"
Here is my strategy on mags: Buy what you can, while you can--while
prices are still halfway reasonable. I don't own a Beretta
92, an AR-10, or an AUG, but I figure I can always trade [for what I need] later.
And I practically had to buy that FAL, since I found all those magazines.
(What a great excuse to buy a gun.) My only regret is that I didn't have
the cash to buy more magazines
at the show.
At
the rate
prices
are zooming,
Beta [C-MAG]s will pretty soon be back to $750 apiece, just like during the
[1994 to 2004 Federal "Assault weapons" and 11+ round magazine]
ban. .
Thanks again for your advice, sir. Your were right about silver. You were
right about magazines. And for that matter you were right about derivatives,
too. The world seems more and more like the first chapter
of "Patriots"
every day. (What, were you psychic?) I'm taking [your novel] to heart. I got
all my "beans", and "bullets" in hand, now I just have to work on the "Band-aids".
Thank
You,
Sir!
- Matt
E. in Texas
(Soon to be a 10 Cent Challenger and an Appleseed qualified rifleman.)
JWR Replies: I'm glad to hear that you stocked up. You won't
regret it. Those extra magazines will make fine barter items, both before and
after a "Crunch." OBTW, I'm not the only that is one advocating investing in
magazines. The following is
from
a
recent
e-newsletter from firearms training guru Gabe
Suarez:, advocating preparedness: "...Then get as many magazines
as you can justify. Glock magazines are going for about $35 now. A year ago
they
were
under $20, and dealer price two years ago was about $12! At the height of the
assault on freedom known as the Crime Bill, they were selling for $125. Forget
Ameritrade, buy magazines."
« Letter Re: Survival Retreat vs. Neighborhood Survival -- Part Deux - Galt's Gulch vs. Idiocracy, by E.B. |Main| Letter Re: Gun Show Report--The Full Capacity Magazine Feeding Frenzy Continues »
Letter Re: It Looks Like the End is Beginning
James,
A few interesting things happened in the market [on Tuesday]. This wasn't in
the market, but is relevant. Hearing lots of chatter generally about things
moving
to "the
final phase".
"Gold is moving as the last phase of the crisis appears
to have started," said
Martin Hennecke, associate director with Tyche Group in Hong Kong.
I'm assuming that the last phase starts out with gold, silver, Treasury notes,
and the dollar all moving up, together. (It is quite unusual for the dollar
and gold to move together, even though that's been the case recently.) Then
at some point - like a tired marathon runner that can't keep up with the leader,
the dollar quits climbing but gold doesn't. That would be the real indication
of the beginning of the end.
The Dollar drops, Treasury bonds start to go unpurchased
causing yields to start soaring, tax collections come up short, States start
defaulting on their bonds, Uncle Sam follows suit, and it all takes one final
big swirl around the commode before collapsing.
In other metals trading, March copper tumbled 7.4% to $1.425 a pound, while
March silver rose 3.6% $14.11 an ounce. March palladium added 1.2% to $219
an ounce, and the April contract for sister metal platinum rose 2.9% to $1,091.70
an ounce. I'm not even going to comment about oil today. What's much more important
is that the copper market essentially collapsed today. Copper is the industrial
metal. It predicts manufacturing and production for the next 6 months to a
year. You don't build anything - certainly nothing electrical or electronic,
without it. It's used in chips, cars, houses, bridges, airplanes, tractors,
and dozens of other places - you can't even build roads without it.
A collapse of copper like this says that things are falling apart fast, and
the economy has no direction to go but down for at least the next six months..
Given the Dow closing under 7,800, we should soon see a flood of bank and other
financial institutions fail. It doesn't appear that things will be changing
direction any time in 2009.
Frankly, I don't have a good feeling about our prospects of making it through
the end of the year - it's looking worse every day. Y'all might want to start
thinking about moving to condition yellow. Double checking supplies, having
your vehicles serviced, buying stuff by the case next time you go to the store,
rather than by the can. - RSB
« Letter Re: Real World Observations on Fighting Crime and Criminals |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Survival Retreat vs. Neighborhood Survival -- Part Deux - Galt's Gulch vs. Idiocracy, by E.B.
Introduction
This is a response to a
previous article written by the esteemed
Dr.
Richard of the Virginia Prepper's Network. Dr. Richard and I agree completely
on a
great many issues but disagree on the issue of the Survival Retreat vs. Neighborhood
Survival. Here are my thoughts on the issue:
Dr. Richard makes some good points with respect to the desirability of an
informed and prepared neighborhood, but in the end it all depends on your particular
neighborhood and neighbors. Because I saw the collapse coming in 2005 I sold
my home in Northern Virginia at what the Washington Post called the
absolute peak of the market and put the proceeds into physical gold and silver
when
gold was trading around ~$400 an ounce and silver at ~$7. BTW, the guy who
bought my home tried to sell it less than a year later for significantly less
and could find no buyers. My goal was to move to low cost Austin, Texas where
I could be near my dad’s ranch which I could then get prepped to survive
the coming economic collapse. Unfortunately my wife thought I had gone completely
insane which along with other disagreements on the health of our children (She
believes in vaccination, sugar, aspartame, fluoride and AMA monopoly medicine
and I don’t) led to a divorce. Now I rent a single family home to be
near my ex-wife and kids where I can spirit them to safety when the SHTF. While
I have never been to Dr. Richard’s neighborhood the detailed description
(cul de sac, all single family homes on relatively large lots, high income/
high IQ neighbors in a development of less than 400 homes in a somewhat rural
area) sounds infinitely more survivable than mine.
My situation is much different. My neighborhood is a mix of single family
homes and townhouses with a much greater density than Dr. Richard describes.
The neighborhood is lower income / lower IQ as well. There is an apartment
complex about a mile away and I once found a cocaine baggie in the parking
lot while jogging through it one day. Unfortunately because I am so busy I
haven’t met as many of my neighbors as I would like and the ones that
I have met are essentially completely clueless to the realities of the world.
My neighbor with the most raw intellectual horsepower is a software architect
in IP security but he still hasn’t figured out that fire can’t
melt structural steel and giggled when I tried to explain the realities of
9-11. He is morbidly obese, addicted to sugar and nicotine, and completely
unarmed. Not exactly the guy you want to have your back fending off looters
and brigands. My second smartest neighbor is an engineer for an IP hosting
company. I spent 30 minutes one day taking him through the physics of WTC 7
and how 47 story modern steel framed skyscrapers don’t collapse completely
and symmetrically into their own footprints at freefall speed defying the laws
of physics. I thought I saw a glimmer of understanding but I never heard back
from him. I am assuming he went back to the TeeVee set. When I jog through
the neighborhood at night the street is lit up with the glow of flat screen
mental prisons.
Anyone that has ever unplugged someone from the matrix understands how difficult
and time consuming it can be to educate and free a single mind. I have a good
friend who is an entrepreneur/small business owner and has held VP level positions
at international networking companies. I have been working on him for years
and even after his son had a febrile seizure 24 hours after getting vaccinated
he is mad at me for trying to warn him and continues to see the same doctor
that potentially crippled his son. My ex-wife has P.hD and I can’t get
her to stop giving our kids fluoridated water even though the practice is opposed
by 14 Nobel Laureates, 2,100+ health professionals, and the EPA’s own
scientists through their union. If I can’t convince my own ex-wife to
quit giving her kids water “medicated” with a chemical used as
rat and roach poison which has been linked to lower IQ in 23 peer reviewed
studies from around the globe then how I am going to educate and convince dozens/hundreds
of acquaintances and strangers on the realities of the world.
So, since neighborhood survival is not an option for me then creating a survival
retreat with a self-selected group of individuals is my #1 strategy for survival
in an economic collapse. Compare some of the qualities and skill sets of our
group and those we are speaking with vs. the TeeVee bums in my neighborhood.
• A general contractor who is a firefighter / EMT in his community with
skills in general carpentry (framing, form, and trim), basic electrical, plumbing,
HVAC, masonry, roofing, and siding. Skilled in basic small engine repair, hand
tools, and appliances. He is taking classes in sustainable agriculture and
automotive repair.
• A retired naval Commander (helicopter pilot) with special operation experience
that has been working on his retreat for years.
• A world class software and information security architect.
• A C-level executive and former military intelligence officer.
All are completely aware, completely awake, completely armed, with good to
excellent preps and are already in high gear improving their skills and doing
what it takes to get ready for the coming collapse.
Now add the advantages that a remote survival retreat offers over attempting
to survive in an area populated with completely clueless starving TeeVee bums.
•
Security – Hidden from looters and brigands who would be more than willing
to kill for your stored food and supplies.
•
Rural Location – Self-sufficient agriculturally with farmers, dairymen,
and cattle ranchers. Plentiful wild game and plentiful wild edible plants.
•
Self-selected compatriots – Honest, trustworthy companions that are completely
prepped for the collapse and have a diverse blend of excellent skills to weather
the storm.
•
Designed for a collapse – Wood stove, solar power, well water, fruit
trees already planted, etc.
So while I wish Dr. Richard the best of luck I am headed to Galt’s Gulch
with other members of the intelligentsia. It doesn’t mean that I am not
willing and/or trying to help my neighbors, in fact I am having a large number
of them over next week to try to explain the realities of the coming collapse
but at the end of the day I must protect my family and myself and a self-selected
group of intelligent people awake to the realities of the world secure in a
remote retreat represents the best odds of survival.
Even if you are going to bug out here are some tips to help the folks who must
prepare for themselves:
Educate, Educate, Educate - Give DVDs, send links to web sites like this, Virginia
Prepper's Network, SurvivalBlog, WhatReallyHappened.com, InfoWars.com, and
SteveQuayle.com. When you pass along DVDs specify that the recipient must pass
it along to someone else and specify that the next recipient must pass it along
as well.
Share your Bounty and Improve Your Own Chances - I am sharing some of my storable
food with a neighbor with the caveat that we would share when the SHTF. If
I successfully bug out then they keep all the food for themselves. If I am
trapped in the neighborhood then I have improved my chances for survival with
diverse food stores.
Arm Them With Knowledge - Take your neighbor to the Appleseed Project and turn
a rifle owner into a Rifleman.
Plant an oversize or community garden - Share the costs of sod, seeds, and
the rental of a tiller.
Store Extra Preps for Friends and Charity - I have stored extra food for charity
and even stored items like diapers and wipes for a low income couple who live
in my neighborhood. I have cached food, money, and silver for the employees
of my business as well in a location they can access in an emergency.
« Letter Re: Getting the Right Training and Preparing Methodically |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Economic Stimulus, From a Macroeconomic Perspective
Jim:
I sent the following letter to my legislative representatives:
Here is macroeconomics
as I see it:
Wealth comes from commodities, manufacturing (improving commodities), and agriculture
(same principle).
Service industries do not create wealth, they distribute it. This includes
financial industries.
Government consumes wealth as it re-distributes it. Even in the admittedly
vital services such as protection of its citizens.
Fact:
There are already (pre-”stimulus”) more government employees
than there are employees in manufacturing and agriculture in the US.
Observation:
The aforementioned being true, increasing the size of government is like
a snake thinking it can sustain itself by eating its own tail. Three things
will
happen. 1)
It will taste bad. 2) It will hurt. 3) Ultimately the snake will die.
Another way to look at it is to acknowledge that if government spending produced
prosperity, the US would be at its most prosperous.
This proves the common wisdom of the advice to those who find themselves trapped
in a deep hole. The first thing to do is to stop digging.
Strategies:
Consume less. The only credit problem we have is that too many (individuals,
businesses, financial institutions, and governments) have used too much credit
and amassed too much debt. This means you. When you have to incur debt to
pay the interest on your prior debt, you are running a Ponzi scheme. Does
this sound familiar?
Reduce taxes and simplify laws to give incentives to wealth creation. 1)
Oil (or any energy production scheme that investors will back) will stem
the
flow
of hundreds
of billions of dollars out of our country. We have a lot of potential energy
sources. These dollars can be used for further investment and job creation
in our country. 2) Agriculture - Our country is blessed with the ability
to efficiently produce food for our people and others throughout the world.
Reform the financial industry. Their accounting books should have all their
assets and liabilities on them. Acknowledge that derivatives are a form of
gambling (though even in Las Vegas the house makes you buy chips up front to
show you are good for the debt).
Allow institutions that have made bad gambles to fail. If you want to finance
something, help small and solvent banks that have made prudent business decisions
to buy (or assume) the assets of the insolvent institutions at fire sale prices.
So what if we have to learn the names of the new big (only) players in finance.
Stop demonizing the rich who have come to their wealth honestly. There
are only three things they can do to prevent their wealth from helping
the economy.
1)
Burning it. 2) Burying it in the back yard in a (really big) cigar box. There
it cannot help finance jobs or investment. They are not likely to do this
anyway since this strategy cannot make them more money. 3) Investing
it in financial
instruments that are the (so far) legal equivalent of gambling. As noted
previously, regular gambling is safer for the economy.
Final thought:
Government did not make our country great. Our Constitution made it great
by freeing people from tyranny (be it from cheats, liars, bullies, or government)
to become the best they can be by depending upon themselves. Please read the
book “The
5,000 Year Leap” authored by Cleon Skousen.
Regards, - Kris N.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Denominating in Time Versus Dollars »
Sending "Patriots" as a Form of Protest
Dear Jim,
I was incensed that one of my state's US Senators (Kay Hagan of North
Carolina) voted for the so-called "Stimulus Bill". I searched for ways to
register
my protest in
such a way that it would get her attention. Thanks to you and your novel
"Patriots", I
have a way. I just sent her a copy with a gift card from Amazon.com. The
gift card reads: "This
is to thank you for voting for the stimulus bill and making the resulting economic
collapse and hyperinflation profiled in this work of fiction a reality." I
just hope she gets the message, since it is a bit subtle especially for a politician.
I really like your book and am re-reading it. I hope you understand that
I mean no disrespect to you in my means of protesting Hagan's vote on the Stimulus
Bill.
All the best, - John R., Waynesville, North Carolina
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Survival Retreat vs. Neighborhood Survival, by Dr. Richard »
Letter Re: Should You Invest in Real Estate?
To quote Robert Prechter, "Short Answer is: no. Long
Answer: The worst thing about real estate is its lack of liquidity during a
bear market. At least in
the stock market, when your stock is down
60 percent
and you realize you've made a horrendous mistake, you can call your broker
and get out (unless you're a mutual fund, insurance company or other institution
with millions of shares, in which case, you're stuck). With real estate, you
can't pick up the phone and sell. You need to find a buyer for your house in
order to sell it. In a depression, buyers just go away. Mom and Pop move in
with the kids, or the kids move in with Mom and Pop. People start living in
their offices or moving their offices into their living quarters. Businesses
close down. In time, there is a massive glut of real estate.”
This is entirely true if one looks back in history. However is buying a steak
for Friday night’s dinner an investment? Or is it part of survival? So,
we are caught on a cleft stick.
If we wait we will surely pay less [for a retreat property] as real
estate prices go down. But then we will be faced with a time problem. Can we
prepare
adequately
in
the time
available? Plants and other food supplies take time to grow, even if we do
it successfully the first time, and few have the experience for that. Can we
find the perfect location even when the price has gone down to more affordable
levels?
Another very important factor that people all too often forget is land taxes.
US states, by law cannot go bankrupt. That in turn means that taxes will not
decrease if the general level of income goes down, perhaps to say half of the
former level. If anything, taxes will increase. States still have
to pay their loans. Particularly in many urban jurisdictions land taxes are
near more modest
income rental rates. Do you think you own that property free and clear,
even if your mortgage is fully paid? Can you afford to pay sky high “rental
rates” (land taxes) for your fully-paid land if you are getting half
your previous income? Do you think that your income will remain at its current
lofty level as more and more become unemployed and start competing for your
job in an atmosphere where employers also are being squeezed?
It is time for some outside-of-the-box thinking here. Each jurisdiction is
different, but somewhere there is a loophole if one searches diligently. In
some jurisdictions,
one can find methods of freezing or even permanently reducing land taxes. In
one jurisdiction I know of, both are possible by registering your land as a
tree farm, resulting in reduced and fixed taxes for 30 years. In other jurisdictions,
it is possible to pay your taxes in advance, prorated according to the interest
rate. Even more, in some jurisdictions one can legally occupy land, pay no taxes
and no purchase price if you simply pay usage fees in advance, (usually quite
nominal) to use the land for specific purposes that politicians have
deemed as desirable. (Often in remote locations that politicians want to develop,
ideal for bug out purposes. This often has its own problems, usually surmountable,
but for illustration purposes it is adequate.)
It is time to analyze the situation determine our current strengths and weaknesses,
and plan to take advantage of our current strengths. They may disappear. In
the current situation, with government budgets all out of whack, negotiating
is possible in nearly every jurisdiction. While we still have a job and a bit
of spare money, we should be looking to cut deals. (and don’t say you
have no money. If the toilet breaks tonight, you will find a way of fixing
it tomorrow.) Today, we are not rushed, and government--however slow--is there,
and there to serve us. (Who knows what will come after TSHTF?)
We can ask questions and expect truthful answers when silly servants do not
guess which direction
our thoughts are trending. If things get tougher, they will surely guess. Find
that loophole wherever you want to be and exploit it. Find a way under, over,
around or through the problem.
Get started today. Tomorrow may be too late. And remember, the longest, or
shortest, journey starts with but one step. Stop theorizing and get off your
hind end. - Allen
« Two Letters Re: Alaska as a Retreat Locale |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: What Does the Drop in the Baltic Dry Index Really Mean?
Dear Jim:
I just read a
TEOTWAWKI warning
article [at Rense.com] stating that since the
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was down
95%, [and that therefore] all shop shelves would be empty in short order. The
writer said that the BDI referred to the number of ships in transit. I thought
it only referred to the price charged for the transport of those ships and
that while the cost was indeed 95% lower, there were still a lot of ships in
transport. Can you clarify? - SF in Hawaii
JWR Replies:
I see plenty of scare pieces like that, mostly written by people that
aren't
looking at the whole picture. Here
is a videoblog clip, on the same topic.
You are correct that it is not the international shipping volume that
has dropped by 95%. It is just
the rates (shipping costs)
that have plummeted by 95%. Key
agricultural commodities like wheat and rice are still being transported in
quantity. But the balance sheets of the shipping companies are suffering because
orders for
imported consumer items like cars and plasma HDTVs have dropped to nearly
nil. Shipping
companies proactively raise or lower rates, as needed. During boom years, shipping
rates (bids) are high, but when orders decline, the BDI figure drops rapidly.
This is because the last
thing that any shipper wants is to set sail with a hold that is not nearly full.
The BDI is a useful indicator of global trade and global economic health.
It is indeed presently signaling economic depression. But it is not indicative
of imminent starvation in the US!
« Letter Re: Some Online Resources on Determining Prescription Drug Shelf Lives |Main| Letter Re: What Does the Drop in the Baltic Dry Index Really Mean? »
Two Letters Re: Alaska as a Retreat Locale
Jim,
For starters I would like to say that Jim you are dead-on with your Delta
Junction recommendation. I live near Delta. And it is some of the finest
farm land in the
world. everything grows amazing here. Some of the information in the previous
letters is wrong and I would like to clarify them . The growing season may
be a little shorter in days of light, but in total hours of light it is much
longer than other places. It gets light here in May and gets dark at night
again in late August. Some vegetables will grow great, some don't do so well,
Corn doesn't like it, but potatoes grow without trying. And as for isolation,
that's the idea. Things are harder to get, but you learn to live with less
and enjoy it more. As for power, at least in the Delta area you do not need
to worry about that in the winter, solar is awesome here in the summer, but
in winter the wind is ever present. I have four wind generators that I built
from old car alternators and Fan blades. I never had a loss in the battery
bank.
I live off of their grid anyway, so I am used to adapting.
As for the wood
situation, certain types of trees do incredibly well here, And they grow faster
not slower, I have trees that I know weren't there ten years ago and are over
twelve feet tall, Spruces grow well here, and birch is my main heat, I have
a fair sized house, and a new, catalyst stove and burn 5-to-7 cords of wood
per
winter.
Fuel is more expensive here, but it fluctuates like anywhere else,
buy when the price is low, and stockpile it. In this area it is common for
people to have a couple of 1,000 gallon tanks buried in their yard, Moose and
caribou ar always around as a meat source, as with buffalo in this area. (Yes
we have buffalo in Alaska). Along with Many other species of flora and fauna.
On the other hand Alaska is not a place for those who can not take care of
themselves. In this area it is not uncommon to see the temps dip below -60,F.
I have seen -72. It is dark all winter, And the stores never have what you
want.
There is plenty of water though, my well is thirty feet deep, and the pump
is set down to twenty feet, My suggestion for people who are thinking about
moving to Alaska is simple, Unless you have lived a subsistence lifestyle for
a while, are used to constant extreme weather changes, and can do it on your
own, stay where you are, or find some place else. As for me, I will never go
outside [Alaska] again, you can keep it. - Z. in Alaska
Mr. Rawles
I too am a long time reader and this is also the first time I have written.
I urge all of your readers to take head to Mr. Galt's letter concerning Alaska
as a retreat locale. It is harsh up here. I live in Delta Junction area and
love it. We have been here for over 10 years now and have our place set up
pretty well. We live off grid and in the bush, hunt, fish, trap, mush dogs
etc. etc. I wouldn't encourage anyone to try to move here and set up a retreat
this late in the game. We just went through a couple weeks of -50 to -60(Tok
recorded -78) temperatures then 70 m.p.h. hour winds that blew down many
trees and damaged a lot of structures. These things are a regular occurrence.
A lot
of Russian immigrants have moved from the lower 48 into the Delta area. Most
of the ones I have met seem to be good people but most live off welfare.
When the welfare stops we'll have problems. The bad bunch of them are thieves
already not just the Russian but Americans also. The Russian community has
a bad reputation for it though. Anyone planning to move here and find a job
might be in for a rude awakening.
The local jobs don't pay enough to live on the grid and the government jobs
stay filled mostly. Delta is profiting from a small military bubble economy
brought
about
by the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense
(GMD) program but with you know in office now all that could come to a
screeching halt at anytime. Because of the GMD program everyone around here
thinks their land has gold on it and prices it
accordingly.
Yes, Delta does have a big farming community. Most of the farmers get buy
living off of government programs and are deeply in debt. The ones that don't
live
off the program hurt. Most farms lay dormant wile collecting CRP checks.
I have heard that there will be no more new CRP contracts in the future. The
fertility of the farm land has gone way down too because of the climate here.
The cold doesn't allow much time for plant matter to decompose plus it's hard
to have crop rotation with only Barley. (Barley, hay grasses, potatoes, and
carrots are the main crops grown here.) For the last three years we have had
a frost in the middle
of August that pretty much killed any vegetables that were not in a green house.
Wells in Delta are any where from 40 to 450 feet in depth. If you buy land
where there is bed rock you may drill 450 deep and still get mastodon pee to
drink. Wells are at $50 a foot this year. Better plan on how to get water out
of the well when the power goes down. Currently heating oil is 2.23 at the
pump in town, more if its delivered. Diesel is currently $3.69. It hit $5 last
winter. Fire wood from Delta Lumber is $180 per cord until they run out for
the winter other sources are up to $250. The people from Delta lumber are great
people and will work themselves silly trying make sure no one goes cold. I
have seen one add for firewood for $300 per cord. Dry firewood is a must because
-50 the soot form green wood builds in the chimney thus creating chimney fire.
A friend of mine got burned out at -50 for that very reason. They didn't get
in enough dry wood for the winter. Luckily they were able to run to separate
garage and no one suffered any cold injuries. Finding a place to cut fire wood
now is getting hard to find.
Most people here are enjoying high power bills now since Golden Valley increased
their rates. The average size house power bill is running $300- $400 [per month]
in the winter maybe less if your really frugal. You have to keep your vehicles
plugged in. In a diesel that is like running a 1,500 watt electric heater.
Wind power is a possibility if your turbine can withstand the wind. Closer
to the mountains it has been 100 mph. The wind here isn't steady it is really
gusty, not good for turbine. Rent is running around a $1,000 and up for a three
bedroom home. Certified sewers are from $6,000 to $16,000 depending. Cost to
build is running around the $150 per square foot range and going up.
If you don't know how Seasonal Affect Disorder (SAD) will affect you, then
you's better find out before you try to make a permanent move here. Cabin fever
has been the demise of many people who move here and plan to live the wilderness
experience. The only cure for it is to be outside. It don't matter what the
the temp is you got to get out side when it's light. SAD has be the cause for
suicide, alcoholism, and drugs. People do the latter two to cope. I personally
have never had it. I have too much work to do. People who don't procrastinate
and get all there chores done and food stores in order for the winter and plan
to stay in the cabin for the winter suffer the worse. We don't procrastinate
but we don't stay in either. The cabin is only a place to warm up, eat and
sleep. Living is done outside the cabin. We trap, mush dogs, care for the horses,
cut more fire wood when it's not too cold, fire up the blacksmith forge, build
some log furniture. It is easy to get lazy and lethargic during the winter.
You have to fight the urge daily. We had a couple move in not to far from us.
I told the lady to make sure she kept the windows uncovered in the winter.
Well, they were the lazy type and didn't ever have enough wood cut so they
covered the windows and blocked out some of the cold but mostly the light.
They made
it though one winter but the next one they didn't. They pulled up [stakes]
and left middle of the winter.
As much as I love living here, if I were looking for a retreat locale this
late in the game then it would be some place more hospitable. We did move here
for the
lack of people and when things get even worse I expect people to start migrating
out of Alaska especially the interior. It requires a lot of hard work to live
here more especially so if your living off the land. How would you like to
cut 20 cords of wood with a hand operated saw and axe when you run out of gas
and or you saw goes down? Running chain saws in the sub-zero weather is hard
on them. Better get extra clutches for them. What about when the mosquitoes
bloom and you have run out of bug dope?
Hunting is decent here. The Russian community poaches a lot of the moose in
the Delta management area. They do it to eat. I am not knocking them for that.
When the SHTF it
will be even worse therefore even we will have to start going further into
the bush to hunt using sled teams to get there. If you plan to
have dogs and sled they require a lot of food. [Here they eat mostly] fish.
The salmon that makes it this far inland is [best -suited for] dog food. It
is pretty beat up by the
time
is gets
here.
The flesh is a faint pink to gray color as they are close to the end of the
life span. Anyone planning to come to Alaska to survive the upheaval better
have there you know what together or they won't make it. This land is unforgiving
and the least mistakes get big in a hurry. Sorry that my letter has gotten
so long but I want people to know what they are getting into if they come here
thinking
it's paradise. It ain't. but it's the life we love. People here are willing
to help if you are not stupid. Our favorite saying around here is "If
you gonna be dumb then you'd better be tough" - C.B.
« Letter Re: Alaska as a Retreat Locale |Main| Preparedness Through Tapping in to the Craig's List Culture: Doing Well by Doing Good, by D.S. »
Three Letters Re: The Community Retreat
James:
When it comes to real-world advice that applies to real people, Kathy
Harrison's article ranks right near the top of the list. There is a sizable portion
of the survival
community (including my family) that believes that the community retreat
model outlined in this article is, for most scenarios, the single best strategy
for survival. While there are certainly some scenarios in which a remote
retreat would be advantageous, those (in my opinion) are relatively few and
unlikely. The community retreat strategy is one that can be used by just
about anyone regardless of family or occupational requirements. It takes
full advantage of the very reason that people have always congregated together.
It's followers are well positioned for recovery efforts that leave out the
isolated retreater, and it incorporates one of your key points - live at
your retreat.
I look forward to more articles of this type by Kathy Harrison and others.
- Stephen in Florida
Dear Mr. Rawles,
The recent post “The Community Retreat, by Kathy Harrison” prompted
me to write with some comments about municipal retreats. Her comments are about
a community retreat that is privately operated. I recently had an opportunity
to see how a municipal shelter/retreat functioned. It was illuminating.
Recently we had a pretty severe ice storm here in the American Northeast. Many
folks feel that it was the worst since 1987, when a storm knocked out power for
two weeks. I wrote about my experiences with that storm here.
One thing about this storm that was new to me was that it was the first time
my municipality had activated its Emergency Preparedness Plan (EPP).
I live next to a municipality of 1,600 people. The Village covers a little under
two square miles and has 386 households.
Like most municipalities these days that receive Federal grants, the Village
must meet certain eligibility conditions. One of those conditions is that there
must be a municipal Emergency Preparedness Plan. This plan describes the village
chain of command, who is responsible for what (fire, police, DPW, etc.), how
to contact those departments/individuals and what resources they have. It also
lists resources available in adjoining municipalities and what resources (fuel,
water, etc.) are available within the village.
Another aspect of the EPP is that the village has to have a facility to shelter
residents during an emergency. That is what I wanted to address here.
This was the first time the village had activated their shelter plan and I thought
it might be useful to describe how it was supposed to go and how it actually
went.
When the village wrote the EPP, the plan was that the American Legion [Hall]
would
be
used to shelter residents. The Legion had large open spaces, a large commercial
kitchen, was located on high ground and had ample parking. There were large bathrooms
with many toilets and sufficient storage for reserve food and cooking items.
To this end a trailer mounted military generator was permanently acquired from
the Federal government and the buildings wiring slightly modified so that all
one
had
to
do was plug the generator into the building, throw a transfer switch and you
were
good to go. Sleeping cots were stored in the building as well as assorted small
items that would allow for sheltering a large number of people. The American
Red Cross would set everything up.
Like most municipalities, the village worked very hard on the EPP, sent copies
to all the right people/departments, filed it with the Feds and States and then
put it on a shelf and never paid attention to it until this ice storm hit. They –never-
updated it. The plan was 2.5 years old.
The Legion hall is privately owned. About 8-10 months ago a decision was made
by its owners to put it up for sale. When the time came to implement the EPP,
the building was no longer available and a replacement had to be immediately
found.
The –only- other building available was the Village Hall. It had emergency
power and water and as a village owned property was immediately available. The
downside was that it was considerably smaller; only about 25% of the capacity
of the Legion [Hall]. The Village Hall contained both the police and fire departments
so it was being used as a command & control facility. The Red Cross switched
gears from Legion to Village Hall. A space was found for about 20 cots but fire
and police personnel had to go through this area to meet with their commands.
The radio room was right next to the sleeping area and the sandwiches and coffee
for the firefighters and cops and everyone else was also in the same room. I
don’t see how anyone could have slept.
While there was no disorder or major crime, the police maintained a presence
in the shelter that did seem a bit ominous. People were allowed to come and go
freely, but it would not have been a stretch of the imagination to foresee a
time when people, once entering the shelter would not be allowed to leave. Commander
Zero [, the editor of the excellent Notes
From the Bunker
blog] commented on the New Orleans,
Louisiana authorities
doing
this
at
the
Super
Dome: They
said
that
the citizens had [effectively] signed an unwritten contract with the authorities
by
entering
the Dome and that they were being prohibited from leaving ‘for their own
safety’. Commander Zero called this the "Guantanodome."
The food supplied to those people seeking shelter in the Village Hall was limited
to grilled cheese sandwiches and coffee and water. There were no diapers, no
provisions for pets, no toys or distractions for younger children. The bathrooms
were small,
each containing only two toilets. There was a single television but it’s
volume was kept low so as not to interfere with radio communications.
Finally, there was no guidance or protocol from higher authorities on how long
to keep the shelter open. After five days or so, staffing the shelter (all the
staff were volunteers) became more difficult and a decision was made to close
it
down.
By this
time only about 10 people remained and they were directed to shelters in another
town. I don’t know what became of those people when those shelters closed.
I like to think that power was restored to their homes by then and they went
home.
It would be very easy to say that this shows that an individual really should
not rely on government in an emergency. In a large way, that’s correct.
While I advocate that the goal of being prepared is to prevent having to go to
this type of shelter, I do not think one should ignore the need for a municipal
shelter. While I will still prepare and strive to not need to leave my home,
I will work with the Village hierarchy to update and improve the plan that they
have. If I know the village residents have a place to go and resources to draw
upon then there will be that many fewer people out scavenging for what I have
put aside for me and mine. - RMV.
Hi Jim...
It never ceases to amaze me how the majority of US survivalist wannabes adamantly
contend they must live in the major cities. Fully 80% of all survivalist wannabes
want to hunker down in their urban or suburban homes according to our polls.
Yet, they subscribe to and post 'survivalist' articles to survival forums like
my Surviving
The Day After list at Yahoo Groups], Rourke's
Survival Retreat and Secure Home [list at Yahoo Groups], or Brad's
HunkerDown06 [list at Yahoo Groups]. Their topics are often centered around
a socialist/communist theme of a secure,
remote survival retreat paid for by pooling money and resources
of would be members and living a communal existence after TSHTF.
None of that is a viable plan, especially with the coming economic collapse
of the USA, worldwide depression, and World War III. But, they won't even consider
getting out of the cities now! It's frustrating to survivalists like me.
BTW, I am in West Texas and we are developing a problem here in such a sparsely
populated area. Pecos, Texas is about 5,000 people around mile marker 40 on
Interstate Highway 20. They have a 3,000 bed county-run prison that houses 3,000 Federal
prisoners. Last Saturday night the prisoners rioted and burned out the R2 unit.
About 45 days ago they had rioted and burned out R1 unit. My brother is a prison
guard
there
and called
during this riot to warn me the inmates were expecting help from MS13 [gang]
contact/associates from Mexico.
The night before, a Hispanic youth gang called Brown Pride Gang torched six
homes in and around Pecos. Two of those homes had Hispanic families asleep
inside.
Those responsible have been apprehended and are facing attempted homicide by
arson charges. These gang "youths" were organized and incited to commit this
attack by MS13 members in Pecos.
Glenn Beck was saying on Fox News that the border violence is intensifying
and yet neither the Democrats or the Republicans are willing to close and regulate
the border with
Mexico. And to top that off, Beck was warning that Texans will soon get fed
up and take matters into their own hands, arming themselves and protecting
their families and property from invasion.
This all has an effect on my personal survival plans long term of course. The
lack of population, the distances involved here in the desert of West Texas,
and the proximity of our paid-for mountain retreat to our paid for farm in
the valley puts us in a much better prepared position than 95% of the populace.
It has taken years of preparation and planning, though. And, none of it came cheap.
I am still a voice in the wilderness crying: Get out of the cities, now!
Regards, Lawrence R.
List Owner, SurvivingTheDayAfter at Yahoo Groups
« Retreat Building Lighting Systems, by The Old Yooper |Main| Note from JWR: »
Inauguration Fallout: Will Retreat Locale Priorities be Skewed?
The recent inauguration of BHO and
the establishment of a quasi-socialist majority in congress will have some
far-reaching implications. Today, I 'm
just going to focus on one
of them,
because it is of concern to
many preparedness-minded individuals:
The possibility of Federal gun laws becoming just as bad or
perhaps worse than those extant in the most gun-grabbing states.
For many years I have advised my consulting clients and SurvivalBlog readers
to "vote with their feet", if they live in states with restrictive
gun laws. Unlike the UK, that has a uniform set of national laws, the US has
always been characterized
by it patchwork of state laws, which vary widely. Here in the US, if someone
dislikes paying sales tax, they can simply move to a state like Alaska, Delaware,
Montana, or Oregon, that have no sales tax;
or someone that doesn't like income tax can move to Florida, Nevada, Texas,
South Dakota, Washington, or Wyoming. Likewise, someone that
feels
oppressed
by the gun
laws of
New Jersey
or California could move to a mecca of firearms freedom like
Idaho, Kentucky, Montana, or Wyoming . These various taxes and restrictive
laws weighed heavily when I developed my
ranking of 19 western states for their potential for relocation for those
that want
to be prepared for long term societal disruption. The recent paradigm shift
in Washington, however, may change that. It now appears that Federal gun
laws may become more draconian than the worst of the existing state laws. This
will make those state laws essentially a moot point. So how will this affect
my rankings? Depending on how things play out, this could push up the
rankings of Arkansas, California, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington.
I'd appreciate your comments on this issue.
Moving Offshore?
I plan to stick it out here
in
the States,
but for the sake of showing other points of view,
I'd also appreciate hearing from any American readers that have gone the
ex-pat route. Please let us know you reasoning in deciding to move offshore,
and a description of where you settled. Do you feel more of less free there?
How are the gun laws in your new country? Are they more or less restrictive
that in the US? Is registration required? Are the gun laws openly flaunted?
New Impetus to Buy Pre-1899 Guns
The other major fallout of the new Washington paradigm for gun owners is the
prospect of almost universal nationwide registration of firearms. Knowing that
registration is often a precursor to confiscation (as in Australia, Canada,
and the UK, for example), this could be a proverbial Very Bad Thing (VBT).
I predict that if nationwide gun registration is established, many Americans
will refuse
to comply with what they see as unconstitutional law. Then, much like in Finland and
Germany,
Greece, Italy, and Spain, rather than register their guns, owners
will simply hide huge numbers of them in elaborate wall or attic caches,
hidden rooms, and underground
caches.
(Not surprisingly, some of the highest rates of unregistered gun ownership
are in countries that were occupied by Germany during World War II, wand where
there has been a fear of occupation by other invading armies. (With
the reasoning being "Fool
me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.")
Massive
noncompliance with gun registration will lead to a predicament: If most guns
get buried somewhere,
then what
will people
use
on a regular
day-to-day
basis for target shooting, hunting, and self-defense? Certainly, some wealthy
owners might embark upon buying a "second set" of registered guns.
But this is prohibitively expensive for most of us.
I predict that many shooters will
begin "collecting" Federally-exempt cartridge guns that were made
in or before 1898. These guns have always been outside of Federal
jurisdiction, and the December 31, 1898 cut-off date has been set in stone
since the passage of
the Gun Control Act of 1968. Thankfully, Federal legislators consider pre-1899
guns a thoroughly obsolete non-issue, and they will likely be exempted in
any nationwide gun registration scheme. I predict that the prices of pre-1899
cartridge
guns
will
increase substantially in the next few years, regardless of changes in Federal
gun laws.
But if there is indeed a nationwide registration law and pre-1899 guns are
not included, their prices will likely quadruple or quintuple, practically
overnight. Keep in mind that there
is a very small, finite supply of these guns! Presently,
you can buy a Mauser rifle made in 1898 for just 20% to 30% more than one
made in
1899. But in just a few years, there might be a 5X difference! Plan
accordingly. For
details on pre-1899 guns and how to identify them, see The
Pre-1899 Antique Guns FAQ, that I authored.
County and City Divergence
In addition to the sharp differences at the state level, there is also the
issue of divergent county and city ordinances. For example, the state of Nevada
as a whole has fairly non-intrusive gun laws, but just Clark County (home to
the sprawling Las Vegas metroplex) has some absurd gun laws on the books. Residents
of states
without firearms law preemption laws share this predicament. I find
some of
the local
restrictions on full-capacity magazines particularly onerous, and
hard
to
keep track of. Here are some examples:
No magazines with a capacity over 12 rounds are allowed in Chicago, Illinois
No magazines with a capacity over 15 rounds are allowed in the state of New
Jersey, South Bend, Indiana, or Aurora; Illinois.
No magazines with a capacity over 20 rounds are allowed in the state of Maryland
(without a special permit),
Wichita,
Kansas,
or the City & County
of Denver Colorado
There are also some idiotic restrictions on sales of firearms ammunition at
the local level. For example, it is illegal to sell ammunition by mail order
(using common carriers such as UPS) to private parties in:
The city of Sacramento, California
Marin, Napa, Ventura,
and Yolo counties in
California
Cook County,
Illinois;
Alaska
Hawaii
The Chicago metropolitan area,
New York
City
New Jersey
Massachusetts
The District of Columbia
Puerto
Rico
APO or FPO (US m overseas) addresses
But state, county and city laws also provide a few
interesting loopholes. One well-known loophole was mentioned to
me by reader F.G., who forwarded this article link: Old
firearms given new life by restrictive New York
gun control laws. I'd be interested in hearing about others.
The flip-side to all this is state reservation of rights, wherein states effectively
thumb their noses at over-reaching Federal jurisdiction. A
recently-introduced bill in New Hampshire is a good example. (A hat tip
to SurvivalBlog reader Larry T. for that link.) Another example is HB
246, Montana's proposed "made in Montana" Federal firearms jurisdiction exemption
bill. I predict that if new Federal gun laws are enacted, many
more states will do their best to exempt themselves, citing the 10th Amendment
and the
Lopez decision. Some might even go so far as to start rumbling
about secession from the Union.
Keep the Change, Pal
It is difficult to predict how gun laws might change at the
Federal level in the next few years, and any broad implications thereof.
All that is certain is that the majority of the American
electorate consciously voted for change in the last election.
We may soon find that we are the recipients of more change than is comfortable.
« Letter Re: Lost Tribe Bypassed by History: Ragtag Band of Khmer Families |Main| Retreat Building Lighting Systems, by The Old Yooper »
Letter Re: Lessons from the January Ice Storm
Jim:
The Ice Storm that just plastered Kentucky brought some reminders of just how
bad things can get and how being prepared - in advance - is critical. Within
a few hours, everything became coated with a half-inch to an inch of ice:
roads, cars, trees, power lines - everything. Throughout the night, we heard
crashes as our neighbor's trees lost massive limbs. We knew it was only a
matter of time before trees limbs (which are not properly trimmed back by
our utility company in an attempt to cut costs) collapsed on power lines
and caused widespread outages. In the morning, everything had turned to crystal.
About a quarter million people were without power in our county, but almost
everyone in the western half of the state had lost power.
Our county actually did a good job of plowing and salting roads. Unfortunately,
it didn't help as hundreds of traffic lights weren't working. Traffic was snarled
badly and travel times easily doubled. Hundreds of businesses are closed and
loosing money every day the power stays off. Looking for a generator at the
local big box home and garden center? Forget it, quickly sold out. Ice scrapers,
gone. Gas cans, gone. Driveway salt, gone. Snow shovels, gone. The sales guy
told me they weren't going to get restocked for the rest of the season.
My daughter called from the university she attends about a four hour drive
to the West. Their whole city was without power and water. The university asked
students
to leave, if possible, and those who couldn't were sheltered in the campus
auditorium. They didn't have any cots so you had to sleep on the floor or in
the auditorium chairs. She wanted me to come pick her up, so as I headed out
the next morning on a full tank of gas, my plan was to stop at each significant
town on the way to check their power and gas pumping status. Each stop was
the same as the next - dead. As I neared the half-way point on my gas gauge,
not one city on the way had electricity. It's as if a nuclear ice bomb had
been dropped on the state. I turned back.
It's amazing when you fully realize how dependent our society has become on
electricity. We are being told it will take up to 7 days to completely restore
service in our county, which is completely urban. Out in the rural areas, they
say it will be two weeks or more. Temperatures have been dropping into the
teens at night. Lots of people I know have no alternatives to heat their homes
or cook food. Fireplaces, like mine, are electrically controlled gas logs.
I can't even light it manually. I've learned a lesson: get
what you need before you need it. Get extra. I will be buying a dependable
generator once this crisis
passes. My next home will be better equipped with alternative sources of heat
and power. - J.S.
JWR Replies: Events like the recent ice storm underscore
the need to be self -sufficient: Think things through, and prepare systematically:
Wood or coal fired
stoves with a horizontal cook top. Kerosene lamps and plenty of fuel, a backup
power
generator,
again
with
plenty
of fuel. Extra stored fuel for your vehicle (which would have allowed you to
make that 8 hour round-trip). Often overlooked in winter is the need for a
backup water supply, and water filtration,
even
if it mean
melting
buckets
of snow--which
is
agonizingly
slow and laborious.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Lessons from the January Ice Storm »
Letter Re: Lost Tribe Bypassed by History: Ragtag Band of Khmer Families
James;
This is an old story but still interesting: Lost
tribe bypassed by history.
My [Cambodian] wife, who is in her thirties, still has some of these jungle/farming
skills. Her younger brothers and sisters who have lived in Phnom
Penh do not.
Most young people only know about Karaoke and mobile phones. Many of the under
15's think the Khmer Rouge is something their parents made up.
See:
Lost
tribe leaves the jungle for brave new world of mobiles.
Help runs out for the lost tribe of Cambodia
Slide
show: Lost tribe
I don't think most people want to copy their example. But their story does
illustrate that long term survival is possible for people with skills even
if they have little resources. Regards, - F.D.
« Letter Re: Mobs of Young Beggars on the Streets of Baghdad |Main| Notes from JWR: »
The Community Retreat, by Kathy Harrison
Establishing a retreat seems to be the dream of many survivalists but realistically,
evacuating to a retreat is not a proposition that is readily available to very
many. There are generally problems with finances as well as family commitments
to contend with. Many folks, like me, have spent years in establishing perennial
food plants, compost piles, garden plots, building small businesses and, most
importantly, forging important community ties that would not be easily broken.
Therefore, we would be well advised to explore how to approach ways to turn
our own residences into retreat communities.
The location of the community is of the utmost importance. Pulling off such
a feat off in a large city or an affluent suburb would be pretty difficult.
A small town in a rural location with a high proportion of families who already
raise food and livestock is your best bet. Such a town is likely to have a
well-developed sense of community, strong family ties and a faith-based community.
You will also likely find a diverse set of necessary skills. Such communities
are generally located in areas that have climates suitable to growing food
crops. Hunting is often a part of the local culture so firearms ownership is
not seen as a problem. It has been my experience that a large number of survival-minded
folks find themselves living in this kind of locality. The question then becomes, “how
do we locate like-minded families and establish a network of support, with
possibility of barter arrangements and the sharing of skills and tools in such
towns?”
We began by attending a film series a few years ago. Free showings of films
such as The End of Suburbia, King Corn and Life At The
End Of The Empire were
shown. Each film was followed by a discussion group. Setting up this kind of
series can happen at a library or house of worship. Out of this format, a core
group formed, all with the sense that life as we knew it was unlikely to be
sustainable for the long term and that we needed to take steps to prepare for
the eventual change. We began meeting on a monthly basis. We are a diverse
group; some more interested in the implications of Peak
Oil, some with financial
collapse. Others are the local growers of organic produce and the breeders
of heritage breed livestock. We have no membership list, no rules of order,
no dues and no criteria for coming to our monthly meetings. We do follow a
loose agenda to ensure that we get some work20accomplished but much of our
time together is devoted to chit chat about current topics and sharing ideas.
One of our most successful endeavors has been our "101" classes. This
is a series of free workshops devoted to helping people learn valuable skills
from others.
We have had classes in raising chickens, canning produce, cheese making, mushroom
propagation, herbal medicine, knitting and many other subjects. The object
is to make all of us less dependant and share skills that might otherwise be
lost.
Recognizing that energy shortages are likely, we set up a panel of people already
alternative sources of energy. This was remarkably well-attended and led to
a day long event where folks opened their homes to people who wanted to see
each system in operation. We saw underground homes, photovoltaic systems, solar
heat collectors, wind powered homes and a couple of places that had been off-grid
for years. The tour ended with a pot-luck soup and bread dinner.
We consider helping each other as a given. We have helped each other get
in our winter wood supply, can an abundance of bulk purchased chicken and
traded
off tools, vehicles and equipment. When my husband scored some very inexpensive
sap buckets, he bought enough for many other group members. When I found
myself overwhelmed with peaches, three of us processed 50 quarts in an
afternoon.
A couple of us are really interested in wild foods. Together we gathered
fox grapes and put up 20 gallons of juice, harvested and dried over 100
pounds
of wild mushrooms and canned 35 quarts of wild applesauce. We are still eating
the fiddleheads we froze last May. Out latest project is to take a firearms
safety course together.
When a major ice storm left our town without power for over a week, we saw
an opportunity to check our preparedness level and hone our skills. Many
of us were also able to provide help and provisions to those who were less
prepared
including the elderly in our small town.
We still have work to do. We realize that we are not as well prepared for
medical emergencies as we would wish so some members are researching becoming
EMTs
and First Responders for our local volunteer fire department. We also see
the wisdom in becoming more involved in our town government.
I know this is not the kind of preparedness one generally reads about on
sites such as this but I think for many, this is the most realistic. Should
the worst
happen, we will be prepared to ride it out with friends and neighbors,
bonded together with common purpose and presenting a united front. - Kathy
Harrison
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Mobs of Young Beggars on the Streets of Baghdad »
Letter Re: The Weekly Bank Failure Hit Parade
Greetings!
Three
more down, and waaaay too many more to go, most likely.
SurvivalBlog readers and everybody else ought to keep looking at The
Weiss Research
ratings regularly - - just to keep tabs on their
own bank, investments, insurance companies, etc. I've gone from checking once
a month, to once a week, to a couple times a week now -all in the span of a year!
- Bob
M.
JWR Replies: The situation in the banking world has become
so fluid that the ratings from Marty Weiss, et al may not be timely enough
to be of great
value. Their ratings are based on monthly and in some cases quarterly filings.
So, in addition to watching the TheSteet.com
ratings, I recommend that you watch
the stock price for your bank, assuming that it is publicly
traded.
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Four Letters Re: More Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand
Mr. Rawles-
In response to "More predictions for 2009", reader Jeff K writes, "There
has never, ever been hyperinflation with deflating real estate prices.".
This is simply false, and a surprisingly common misperception. Zimbabwe is
hardly a 'red hot' market for residential (or commercial) real estate, yet
that country is an example of extreme hyperinflation. When Turkey went through
its period of massive inflation it too suffered declining real estate values.
South
America,
plagued with inflation during much of the past century was also a black hole
for real estate investment. Ditto for [much of] Africa. Weimar Germany, a famous
example of hyperinflation in a modern, western state was, similarly, anything
but an
appreciating property market.
What one may observe during a hyperinflationary event is the dramatically
increasing cost of assets denominated in the hyperinflating currency. The real
value of
the domestic assets (such as real estate), however, is not increasing but rather
decreasing as assets are constantly being revalued in terms of the inflating
currency's loss of value. This loss, counterintuitively, manifests as a "gain" in
the form of more zeros on the notes. Similarly, real estate deflates in periods
of hyperinflation even as its price "rises". This is why super- or
hyperinflation fails to attract real estate investors in states suffering such
economic mismanagement. - Steven L
Dear J.R.,
A recent article from Bloomberg "Attali
Warns of a' Worldwide Weimar' as Governments Print Money" will explain
to your readers of how inflation and even hyperinflation can develop from a
deflationary collapse.
As shortages of goods/supplies/services begin happening after manufacturing,
transportation and supply systems break down in deflation; and with the abnormally
increased money supply suddenly thrust into our economy working it's out into
the broader economy- the conditions for inflation begin. - M.M.
Hello Jim,
With regard to Jeff K.'s reply, calling Roger Wiegand a "huckster",
I'd like to point out some issues I have with his claims. Wiegand did correctly
call the crash of the US Equity Markets, as Jeff states, but I could not readily
locate anything about Wiegand being wrong on hyperinflation, since he isn't
calling for it until late 2009. As for a decoupling, Wiegand, again to the
best of my knowledge, has spoken only (or at least, primarily) of a decoupling
of gold from the Dow. No other decoupling mentioned. Foreign equities? Show
me where Wiegand has suffered a "big flop" here.
Same with commodities, where he continues to support gold, which is a long-term
position and one with which I wholeheartedly concur as having huge upside potential,
even more so for silver. And is Jeff K. investing in the S & P? He's a
braver soul than me, since I wouldn't touch the S & P with a
26 1/2 ft. pole, nor any other Dollar-denominated asset.
Jeff K. says "FYI, there has never, ever been hyperinflation with deflating
real estate prices. There has never, ever been hyperinflation when one's debt
is denominated in their own currency" Again,
Wiegand hasn't called for price hyperinflation until later and I think perhaps
Wiegand's timing could be off, but only the timing, not the inevitable event,
since there is no example in recorded human history of a continually successful
fiat currency, as they all eventually end, some catastrophically. Monetary
supply increases are [presently] in full swing.
How did Jeff K. determine that Rodgers, Schiff and Wiegand have been wrong
for thirty years? How can anyone be wrong for thirty years and maintain a growing
number of satisfied clients? (Sure, some got burned, no one is perfect).Is
he basing this on the fact that hyperinflation hasn't arrived yet? While it
may not be hyper, is a 98% loss in the purchasing power of the Dollar and Wiegand's
claim that it will get much worse, not enough to satisfy Jeff? Congressman
Ron Paul, probably the most educated Congressman on the economy, with several
related books written on the subject, also claims that inflation is all but
guaranteed in our future and I cannot rationally consider Paul a "huckster".
The [same] amount of money that the Fed created from 1913 to Sept.
2008 has been created in the last 16 weeks. This is off-the-hook,
unprecedented (at least in the US)
monetary inflation
and will potentially have a devastating effect on price inflation within 1-2
years' time. Worse, there are no plans to slow down and, in fact, the Fed continues
to smoke the bearings off the presses like there's no tomorrow. (And there
may not be, for the Dollar!).
The bottom line and the lesson I feel we should take away from these so-called "hucksters" is
that government intervention in the markets is the root of almost all our economic
woes. Inflation is real and growing, regardless of timing, and is likely to
get much worse. (The exact call on dates means very little to me) and that
bickering over these details of who is wrong and who is right is absurdly pointless
in light of what is unfolding. Understanding the degree of manipulation, the
vulnerability of our JIT infrastructure,
the fact that we import most of our food, fuel and goods...it doesn't take
a rocket scientist to realize the potential
for a very dangerous situation to unfold unnervingly quickly and for which
a staggering number are, sadly, completely unprepared, thanks to an ignorant
/ complicit mainstream media and a breathtakingly corrupt Fractional Reserve
Banking System.
Additional note: I contacted Euro Pacific Capital in the wake of the related
Shedlock article and received the following reply on Monday, January 26, 2009:
"Thanks for your e-mail. Yes we are aware of the Shedlock article,
and
we are disappointed that he would choose to market his firm by bashing ours.
On many
levels his critique is distortive and unfair. We will address this in upcoming
podcasts.
Thanks,
Andrew Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc."
Lastly, who does Jeff K. suggest we should entrust with economic insight?
Bernanke? Geithner? If he says Larry Kudlow, my opinion of his observations
will have been thoroughly confirmed. Some people will stand square in the
tracks and argue over a loose railroad spike, even as the speeding train
bears down on them. Sincerely and God Bless, - H.H.
Hi Jim,
Jeff K. slams Jim Rodgers, Peter Schiff, and Roger Wiegand in error as he does
not appreciate the long term and conservative (read safe) old fashioned investment
strategies, strategies safe enough for "widows and orphan" as they say. One
should keep their eyes on the big picture, the macro economics and think
in terms of years, and not in terms of a day trader and more nimble risk
taking 'investors' who can make money in the short term and yet loose in
the end. Few gamblers always call it right and most eventually loose. One
cannot compare these two very different classes of investing on the success
or failure of a chosen year or two.
This appears be the greatest financial meltdown in history, and as you say,
we are in "terra incognita". The fundamentals continue to justify
a conservative approach and playing the macro trends while ignoring the market
noise. While Schiff did missed this nasty deflationary phase, he may yet prove
to be a winner and Rodgers always mentions that he has the worst timing. Clearly
they have gotten the big picture right, it is now a matter of whether it becomes
be a deflationary scenario, some level of high inflation or the worst, hyper
inflationary. IMHO, hyper inflation is likely. Unfortunately I can't speak
about Wiegand. Fortunately I believe I've followed the best advice, the most
conservative of all and invested in tangibles, lots and lots of tangibles.
- E.L.
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The New Washington, DC Paradigm Does Not Bode Well for Economic Recovery or Gun Ownership
Wednesday's news of passage of the "supplementary" TARP II
$900 billion stimulus and bailout legislative package in the House of Representatives
is noteworthy. The fact that it passed with hardly a whimper is evidence that
Congress cannot
be trusted to show any fiscal
restraint.
According
to
the Wall
Street Journal only about 12 cents of every dollar appropriated in that
legislation will go for something that can be considered a growth stimulus,
yet there was no
lengthy
or substantive
debate
on the bill. The floodgates of the Treasury have been opened! The Mother of
All
Bailouts
(MOAB) is
now sure to further expand, to heretofore unimagined proportions. Henceforth,
each time that there is a new "crisis" or "emergency",
or a "threat" to a vital industry, Uncle Sugar will dump veritable truckloads
of magically-created money on the problem. What will be deemed a "vital"
industry?
Car
makers have already been deemed
vital. So why not truck and heavy equipment manufacturers? And the steel mills?
And the airlines? And the aircraft makers? Ship builders? Why not yacht builders?
The newspapers? ("They're
really hurting, so let's just print more money!) Despite the
fact that every Republican
congressman voted against it, the bill was passed
by the Democratic majority.
The passage of this bill is an ominous sign, and it is a dangerous precedent,
especially when we consider the other legislation that the Obama-Reid-Pelosi
cabal
may have
in
mind. I suspect that they have plans for a panoply of socialist programs including
universal (taxpayer-funded) health coverage, the so-called Fairness
Doctrine, expatriation controls, enormous welfare and public works programs,
and, of course
new civilian disarmament ("gun control") legislation. Perhaps our
only
hope on the latter is expansion of the Heller and
Lopez Supreme Court precedents, in new court decisions that affirm
the Second Amendment as both and individual
right and a collective right, and that further constrain Federal jurisdiction
on firearms manufacture and sales. In light of Heller,
any law, agency directive (or "interpretation"), or executive order that infringes
on the Second Amendment
will quickly
be stricken
down. (But then there is the nagging issue of Federal court packing by the
BHO administration.
This is possible, depending
on how many SCOTUS justices
retire in the next four to eight years.)
Getting back to the economic morass, the key point again is that the floodgates
have been opened. There is
now no limit to the MOAB. Rather than allow the natural market cycle to work
malinvestment
out
of the
economy,
the
Federal
government
and the Federal Reserve banking cartel will do their best to reliquify
and and
re-inflate the Big Bubble. What will come of this is anyone's guess, since
this is truly Terra Incognita. A liquidity crisis this enormous is
without precedent. Will the deflationary spiral be unstoppable? Will mass inflation
emerge? Stay tuned. But don't look to me for answers. I didn't write the script.
Or then again, maybe
I did.
Business Week recently
reported: "New Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is exploring
the creation of a government-funded 'bad bank' to buy up mortgage-backed
securities and other troubled assets from banks in hopes of boosting their
capital levels..." This is all aimed at breaking banks out of their
fear of lending. Bankers are currently so petrified that the credit market
has essentially dried up. Even ostensibly credit-worthy companies can't get
loans. So the MOAB expands, yet again, using taxpayer dollars to buy up the
toxic debt.
Talk about a losing proposition! Only a government would embark
on such a venture. Of course, they'll be doing what governments do best:
spending other
people's money.
The government's response to the credit
collapse could best be described
as a "horrible spasm". (I mean that in the
McNamara sense of the term.) The Feds
and the Fed are flailing about, throwing money around in gargantuan quantities,
hoping that something, anything works to get credit flowing and the
economy jump started. They won't dare admit that they have no idea what they
are doing. Parenthetically, do you remember Jim
Cramer shouting "He has no idea!", back in August of '07? Perhaps
that public meltdown on CNBC was a foreshadowing that The Powers That Be still have no
idea. Again, we've entered Terra
Incognita. As I warned in
July of '07 and again
in
March of '08, things could get very, very bad before they ge any t better.
To monitor the economic situation, I recommend watching some key figures:
The first is the US
Dollar
Index. (After testing the critical 72 level, the Dollar has gained strength
in foreign exchange. (Not because of any inherent strength, but rather because
European
banking is even more badly broken than American banking, and the Euro and Pound
have taken a beating)
Next is the spot price
of gold. (Can you spell "suppression"?)
This
Adjusted Monetary Base chart released by the St. Louis regional Federal
Reserve Bank sheds further light on the "Big Picture". (Look closely:
Don't miss the
upright spike that
is hidden
behind the gray bar at the right end of the chart, showing the enormous growth
of the monetary base in 2008.)
And lets not forget the
bank reserves statistics published by the Federal Reserve.(These show a banking
system that was until recently starving for reserves, but is now gorged with
reserves
that the bankers refuse to lend, out of fear.)
For even greater detail, see Dr.
Gary North's "Charts to Monitor" links.
In conclusion, I must repeat my long-standing advice to SurvivalBlog readers:
Get prepared to ride out a lengthy economic depression with accompanying civil
strife, massive economic dislocation, and the destruction of the dollar as
a currency unit. Self-sufficiency, self-defense, and charity may very well
be the bywords of the coming decade.
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Three Letters Re: The Gray Man in the Coming Storm
Jim:
On Tuesday Jan. 27th, SurvivalBlog readers found 12 [follow-up] letters
concerning the recent "Gray Man" letter. I believe the writer's of
the majority of those letters need to go back and re-read the original Gray
Man post. That post included several suggestions for "surviving" within
an area of control of a repressive government. They included putting pro-government
bumper stickers on your car, checking out pro-government library books, accepting
with
a smile the government ID chip, gladly taking and using a government credit
card and thanking the government for doing a good job. These are not "Gray
Man hide in plain sight" activities.
These are all actions that actively support the government. These are all activities
that say to your neighbors that you support the government and that you think
it's
actions are proper. Whatever your secretly held thoughts might be, your actions
are what your children and friends will see and it may add to their own doubts
about their yearnings for freedom.
Please consider, if you choose not to openly fight repression, at least choose
to not support it. You don't need to quickly line up to get a chip or credit
card. Don't get it until you feel you have no other choice in order to survive.
You don't need to put a government bumper sticker on your car. If you are afraid
to proclaim what you really believe, say nothing at all. Don't give support
to your secretly held enemy. Simply ignore them in every way possible. At the
least, by complying as slowly as possible, you will slow the government machine
down.
Several of the 12 letters spoke about spies of WWII and how they engaged in
activities to gain favor with the enemy, in order to gather information for
the Resistance. One letter spoke about a soldier alone behind enemy lines,
who did as much as he could to avoid detection and detention, in order to return
to his own lines. These are not examples of so called "Gray men".
They were soldiers doing an assigned job in order to defeat the enemy. The
villagers who secretly fed the partisans during the War in Europe were not
Gray Men displaying happy faces. They were patriots supporting the war behind
the front lines. Any of them that were caught were summarily executed. The
so called "Gray Man" of the original post would do nothing to cause
his arrest or worse.
It is said that during the American War for Independence, about a third of
the population of the colonies put their lives, their families, and treasure
at risk to gain Freedom. A third were blackguards who supported the king, and
a third just stayed home and hoped somebody else would do the right thing.
I would hope that in the coming days, we Americans can do at least as well
as our ancestors. I pray that, at the least, there be one Patriot for every
miserable "Gray Man". - Jim in Ohio
Mr. Rawles:
This "Gray Man" mini-controversy has prompted me to weigh in on the
matter. I am mildly surprised at the strong reactions to it, although I suppose
I shouldn't
be. To be frank, this is precisely the survival mindset as taught in military
SERE schools.
The younger, and more passionate among us are mildly amusing in their
rants against it. I suppose they need to really scrub down your mission statement,
as it were, before spouting off about such things. Is your goal the survival
of your family, other retreat members, and yourself, or, are you out to fight
against the outlaw gangs, UN troops, T-1,000 [Terminator]s, etc.
Yes we would love to do both, but obviously(?) depending on what happens, you
may have to choose one or the other. In many scenarios, it may be necessary
to hunker down and just survive the initial chain of events before even considering
venturing out to right wrongs and slay evil-doers. So in theory, the Gray Man
concept may be necessary to live to fight another day.
Would I submit to the indignities described or defiantly say hell no and go
down in a blaze of glory? The timing of your defiance would certainly seem
to be critical. If you waited too late and found yourself in a corner and had
to submit to it, hopefully you would be able to escape at some point and head
for the hills. If you saw it coming in time enough to escape and join with
other like-minded individuals, then you may be in a position to resist.
There are so many variables here, to sit and argue over such things is pointless.
You may be on reconnaissance from your retreat and get policed up in a sweep
and in end up in a camp. You may have to become the Gray Man to facilitate
your escape.
The world is not so black and white. In unconventional warfare, being the Gray
Man aptly describes many skill sets necessary to fight a stronger opponent.
You
only need look at recent history to understand how this works. You can get
on-line and frontal assault the machine gun nest, or you can wait till they
are marching back to camp and ambush them.
Seems kinda obvious to me, but it's gonna take more then pure hearts, raw courage,
and hard work to defeat your enemies. It may also take swallowing your pride,
being beaten and humiliated, and biding your time for when you strike back.
If you are captured and maintain this overtly defiant attitude, likely as not
you will be shot outright, and do no one any good.
So I think each man needs to do some soul-searching here. Are you really doing
what's best to accomplish your goals, or is this your pride, or ego talking?
Semper Fi, - Diz
Dear Jim,
After following the "Gray Man" debate, I have to say that I agree
that the; "They can kill me, but I'll die a free man." position
sounds great, but is a prime example of testosterone toxicity. However,
that still leaves the issue of capitulation vs. effective resistance. The problem
being that no one to date has presented any compelling suggestions as to how
an effective resistance can be mounted. Anyone who tries to start is with the
idea of becoming a rallying point, winds up cheered, jailed and forgotten;
anyone who has a the right strategy seems to be silent. My problem is that
we all know and understand the problem; there is no real
need to keep chewing on it.
E-mail, Forums, Blogs, Broadsheets, Shortwave radio shows; [is just] talk,
talk, talk. The Tyrants are perfectly content to let us rant, and rave, and
even spout
the
truth about how they are enslaving us all. Just so long as we comply with
each and every edict, and with each one, we are lead inexorably, to accept
ever heavier chains.
What we need is some ideas on effective resistance; solutions to the problems
of creeping enslavement? Please don’t tell me, or anyone that “dying
a free man” is useless, unless you can tell me also what else I might
do, besides surrender.
Who then will provide us with solutions? Who can answer the question: How do
you effectively resist the Tyrants without going to prison, or getting killed?
Political action is a waste of time, "We the People" are ignored.
I admit that I am not smart enough to know the answer. Where is our V, our
Danneskjöld?
Without such a leader, or without such ideas, I see only the ability to throw
more bodies in front of the Juggernaut, until it is
starved for a lack of slaves, and victims.
So my question is not; "Who is John Galt?, but rather " John Galt;
Where are you?"
Happy Trails - Fanderal
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More Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand
Our new president was inaugurated and we wish him well for the sake of our
nation and others throughout the world. We do not want to be cynical but must
be realistic. We think this year will be the worst one of this longer recession-depression
cycle and our new leader, we suspect is going to take a merciless pounding
from a heap of troubles domestically first and foreign later.
Thankfully, the spending of TARP #2
and whatever billions-trillions are added for emphasis, should give us the
Obama Market Bounce lasting perhaps 90 days
or so. While this economics plan has no chance in our view, the herd psychology
of markets should give us a nice relief rally almost across the board. The
dollar is flat to down on the intermediate cycle and bonds are the same. We
forecast the balance of our favorites to rally along with shares in both the
mainstream and precious metals.
However, with spring flowers in April we are expecting a quintuple smash of:
Wave one of commercial real estate foreclosures and loan failures. Some
of the biggest of the big buildings will be foreclosed and those planned
but not
built will never see daylight. Meanwhile, vacancies skyrocket while budgets
are busted with dropping rents. One analyst estimated the New York City Financial
district buildings will see 66% occupancies with break even budgets being
much higher. You will see some major shopping malls shut down.
The second wave of residential foreclosures and loan failures arrives dragging
down all real estate values both commercial and residential. They will sink
like a rock in over-built states and within those regions previously hit the
worst. This is related to the next mortgage failure cycle. Some of those formerly
upscale, McMansion subdivisions will turn into ghost towns.
Wave one of auto loan failures containing billions in bank, credit union and
auto finance company loans will smash credit markets. The reaction will be
stunning and probably stop most vehicle lending temporarily for weeks paralyzing
automakers and those lenders still doing car and truck loans.
Wave one of several future waves of credit card failures estimated at $40 billion
by bank credit analysts will be an April smash. Normally card failures are
in the 1-2% range annually. This larger event opens doors for a historic new
number
of non-payers and delinquents. This cycle is mostly job loss related but most
of it is due to overspending by cardholders.
Wave one of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will hit markets like a Tsunami.
These failures will be so overpowering, those in charge will be stunned and
flabbergasted
by the numbers. The figures are so large we cannot even imagine the amounts.
One analyst said it was estimated between $500 and $750 Trillion dollars! There
is no margin or deposit money on these trades.
Most See A Crisis Of Liquidity. We See A Crisis Of Insolvency.
Here is the difference: For those in a crisis of liquidity they have a temporary
shortage of liquid cash but do have a positive balance sheet with a viable
longer term business plan. Insolvency is something entirely different. Those
personally or corporately insolvent have both a shortage of cash but worst
of all do not have a reasonable and viable plan to grow themselves out of trouble.
No matter how many billions are tossed to those insolvents, they will crash
anyway while taking billions in TARP and replacement cash down the tubes with
them.
An excellent example is the American auto industry. Even with enough cash to
get by for say three years, the overwhelming debts and their whacko budgets
eliminate any hope of recovery. The automakers are insolvent. When compared
with their European and Asian competition, the Big Three continue to operate
on the old paradigm with overly generous benefits, wages and perks. Further,
the work ethic in America is not the same as with most other auto manufacturers.
There are exceptions of course but the money deck is stacked against the Big
Three even having any chance. In addition to out of kilter budgets, the Big
Three has an extremely heavy load of legacy costs related to retirees. The
Asian companies do not have this burden for the most part. The Big Three are
paying big bucks for many more retired workers related to pensions and health
care.
A comparison might be the U.S. Social Security system. We already have too
many retired folks collecting benefits compared to those working and making
contributions. This relationship is going the wrong way very quickly. Real
worker contributions are not keeping-up with payment demands and further, those
worker contributions are deposited to the U.S. Treasury General Fund where
they are open to abusive spending for other things. Those contributions should
be in a segregated fund and not commingled. We suggest that when the younger
workers catch on they will rebel against this idea thinking they are tired
of feeding the oldsters and not keeping enough set aside for them selves.
Other Events Dragging Down World Economies
World trade is in a state of collapse as seen in tumbling Asian manufacturing
and export numbers along with ships parked to the extent global docks are nearly
silent. Historically when this happens, nations turn inward to save themselves.
Asia will stop buying and investing in our crappy paper meaning the U.S. is
no longer financed. Further, trade wars and protectionism will appear to protect
internal and domestic economies. Nasty tariffs are born and international trade
anger rises. Mutual cooperation so necessary to move all the global goods goes
very bad.
Unemployment is rising swiftly throughout the world. In the U.S. we see 500,000
jobs per month going down the drain. Those are the losses reported. We would
strongly suggest the actual monthly loss is near 1,000,000 per month. If this
is true, America will shed 12mm jobs this year as our new administration proudly
announces they will create 2-4mm new ones. They will be going backwards at
the rate of nearly -80%, which is astounding. Worse yet, any new ones will
be make-work government jobs creating a further drain on the treasury. We see
next to nothing for new private employment. Obviously with all the joblessness,
bills are not paid relative to autos, housing, miscellaneous loans, education,
health care, travel, taxes, entertainment,
etc. Lost jobs create a cascade of failures across the entire spending-investment
spectrum. Further, when fear sets in as in today’s situation, those still
working stop spending. Spending losses encourage a Catch-22 and the whole cycle-episode
feeds on itself in a downward spiral.
While we remain in a primary deflation mode world-wide, we think inflation
followed by hyperinflation is very real and possible in later 2009. The Federal
Reserve and U.S. Treasury are just about at the end of their rope. They are
out of rate cut running-room and those moves are mostly ineffectual now anyway.
All they have left is a phony game of printing dollars and bonds while moving
them around in a circle within our country. Foreign USA paper buyers take less
and less at new auctions. We know they are dumping dollars and other papers
assets at a furious pace paying bills and investing in honest-to-goodness hard
goods with real value. Watch out for big time inflation in the second half
of 2009.
As we write this on January 20th, England’s Pound Sterling is taking
a historic dive as their central bank has been printing recklessly to fund
illiquid-insolvent disasters. One analyst expects the Pound to fail and this
monetary crisis to go into a Trustee Receivership with the IMF and Euroland
authorities in charge.
We’ve been saying for months the monster U.S. bond short just ahead will
be the mother of all bubbles. Others agree and we see more and more discussion
relative to this topic. Timing is difficult but more than one analyst suggests
using the ET’s for trading this longer term event.
One top analyst from Canada suggests this current economic cycle might resemble
the 1873-1896 depression in the U.S. Maybe, but with think its more like 1929-1939
as today is 1938-1939 with stronger negatives. After 1939 only war got the
global system on track again. Expect a repeat.
Remember Sir Alan delayed the 2000 event with low interest and free housing
money. He has only delayed the inevitable disaster giving it a bunch more nasty
power. The overshoot on the downside is already crazy and we have long, long
way to go headed down to the lower than low finish line.
Towns, Cities, States And Municipalities Losing Tax Income
Pensioners are a dominant investor group in municipal bonds for retirement
income. Real estate taxes are the primary driver of cash-in for these groups.
With tax values sinking and taxpayers defaulting, your local township, village,
county or city is not receiving enough income to pay bond interest. We think
there is a distinct possibility California goes bankrupt!
We see a series of rolling defaults. Look at California. The announced they
will be mailing income tax refunds late as they are broke. Further, some creditors
are either getting or, about to get payments from the State of California in
IOUs. This state is $40 Billion short on their budget and realistically
have no way to escape. Their lender of last resort will be Uncle Sam. This
means other states that behave themselves and pay their bills will have their
residents tapped to cover California messes.
In Michigan, the Cities of Highland Park and Flint went broke and Lansing (our
capitol) and Detroit are next. We cannot imagine what life will be like in
Wayne and Oakland counties in Southeastern, Michigan when our Big Three disappear
in bankruptcy. Hundreds of thousands of high pay jobs will vanish-suppliers
and associated employment constitute thousands more lost forever.
It has been said that whenever a nation’s debts exceed GDP by over +6%,
there is no recovery. The U.S. crossed that threshold last year and is headed
for +10% on debts over GDP. There is no turning back and the recovery could
be a decade or more away. We are going broke nationally for certain.
Being Poor Is A Hardship. Being Poor In The Middle Of Social Violence Is Untenable.
The U.S. has resources to provide enough food and shelter for the poor, and
newly jobless with little strain. They won’t do it because the government
is always a reactor not an initiator in solving problems. This means there
is a social upheaval ahead worse than ten Katrina’s. The sad part is
it could be avoided if the authorities would just get busy and get the aid
out and delivered. They won’t because they are too stupid and disorganized.
Watch the fallout from this mess!
Families, singles, children, and pensioners are going hungry for lack of adequate
nourishment many times trading food money for utilities or rent; not being
able to afford all necessities. Here we sit with millions of vacate homes and
more coming yet we lack adequate housing for the poor.
The food banks are overrun with demands while millions of others throw food
in the garbage. The food situation is one of transport and distribution rather
than a lack. Governments are not even close to being prepared for the crushing
demands of the cold and hungry we see in 2009-2012. Then, to make it all worse,
when the US weather warms-up and gets hotter this summer, heat drives out the
jobless and they go hunting on the streets. They will be on the prowl for free
food, food to steal and committing crimes for other necessary goods they cannot
afford.
The terrible, old Los Angeles and Detroit riots and those of other larger urban
areas will re-set new records for fires, destruction and mayhem. People read
of the billions stolen by crooked bankers and their sleazy associates and anger
is swiftly rising. We have no idea how crazy wild this can get but in our view
meeting violence with more violence is not the answer. For those with limited
resources it’s simply better to just get out of the way. For those with
money and an obviously good lifestyle in the city, we expect you will be a
daily robbery target. Better think about it.
Back in the 1930s depression, our population simply suffered in silence.
While I suppose there was some crime, it was modest compared to what we see
on the 2009 horizon. In this spoiled generation of me first-you last, there
will be no time for suffering in silence. When an unemployed father needs milk
for crying babies, he will get a weapon and go get the milk and food.
We get second-hand reports of huge gangs in South Central L.A., and Chicago
on both the north and south sides and others. California gangs are reported
to outnumber the police 3 to 1 and worst of all they have automatic and heavy
weapons. This is not going to be pretty.
Even in the rural parts of the country, there are steady reports of thieves
stealing farm equipment, robbing houses and taking fuel. Unattended property
is a target. We think living in a small quiet town with good neighbors, being
nondescript and blending in will provide a better life. If you can’t
move, better make provision for a spot to land if your neighborhood goes bad
overnight.
Another ugly part of depression life is a clash of cultures and religions.
The have-nots will turn on the haves perceiving them to be part of the reason
the poor are poor. Obviously this is ridiculous but that is an easy perception
to embrace. Look for new nastiness among those cultures most prone to argue
and pick-on each other and targets generally having a good life style with
plenty of money.
A new mindset is necessary to curtail higher, former lifestyles. I have friends
who spend like they did ten years ago but do not have ten years’ ago
resources. Inflation is insidious. It grinds away on your income with no raises
or increases being few and far between. It grinds away with taxes, as cost
increases constantly slide higher at a gradual but relentless pace. It takes
away little pleasures like eating out more often or taking nice vacations.
It tightens the belts of kids in high school who want more expensive stuff
while school systems offer less and charge more. It bites on us with repairs
and on things that break too often and cost too much. Once tiny, annual fees
like a dog license or, auto registration keep going higher and higher.
If most people took a real hard look at income and spending I think they would
make tighter budgets, curtail old pleasures and get rough with letting a nickel
go out the door. Most keep on keeping on, doing the same old stuff relative
to spending and wonder why they are broke. Americans probably have the worst
savings record in the world. They always spend far beyond their means, for
the most part; living from check-to-check. I see it in Michigan in upscale
neighborhoods where thirty-somethings living in McMansions have a husband-wife
income of $250,000-to-$300,000, being basically broke. They have multiple leased
cars and trucks, a house payment that would choke a horse and plenty of extras
including
private clubs, special training, fancy vacations, private schools, and overdone
holidays. Watch how this comes to a screeching halt!
The chickens (vultures) are coming home to roost. Bye-Bye $150,000 per year
auto engineer’s salaries, and here comes rising taxes as our esteemed
governor takes more and spends more even in these distressed times. She thinks
your earned money is her money. She never had a real job or met a payroll in
her life. Let them eat cake she says; all is well. Watch where that goes. Taxpayer
revolts are born of situations like this one.
I’ve got some bad news for her. The tax income is skidding, big painful
state lay-offs are just ahead and when schools begin to close, homeowners send
in house keys to the bank and leave our state. There is going to be lots of
jingle mail sent to the bankers this spring. Mark my words it’s going
to be beyond ugly. Maybe Michigan will revert to the forest emulating Detroit
where wildlife abounds and not the kind you think either.
The USA War Machine Will Shrink.
We Can’t Pay For It And Most Americans Are Tired Of Feeding Defense Companies
To Manufacture Stuff That’s Blown-Up And Wrecked.
Global economic calamities redistribute national power. The survivors have
independent energy sources or, they steal it from others. The Middle Eastern
struggles with Israel and the Arabs will continue we think until it heaven
forbid goes nuclear. NATO is going weaker in Europe as Putin closes in for
the kill. South America has several newly-bent left-leaning commie countries
courtesy of Hugo Chavez. His antics in his country and with neighbors, and
Cuba and Mexico tell us this dude is on a rampage to spread big trouble right
at the door-step of America in Mexico.
We sincerely hope our new president is a tough guy with the bad guys. They
will lend no quarter and are simply lying back in the weeds to take control
by force. We suggest if the truth be known, Mexico is far out on the stability
ledge as we speak. Our border guards and even the U.S.’s Border States’ National
Guard are no match for those criminals in Northern and Central Mexico. New
reports tell us they caused more deaths in Mexico last year than were counted
in Iraq. This is very serious, indeed.
New Currencies, Bretton Woods And T-Bonds
Our New York global trading and investment banks will require constant infusions
of new cash to stay afloat. The TARP funding and still more to come is tossing
cash into a bottomless pit. One of the world’s bigger banks is going
to fail this year and it will be a disaster.
Next, one of the larger insurance companies will go bankrupt and create another
shock to the core of our system and that of the world. This insurance company
crash will be matched by a monster blue chip American company failing and shocking
Wall Street.
The U.S. Bond bubble is the mother of all bubbles and has tragic consequences
for the entire world. These markets are 70 times larger than the shares markets
and form the lifeblood of capital for global finance. When this one breaks,
the reverberations slam the world’s financial systems to the bone.
The old Bretton Woods system of having our USA dollar as the backbone of the
world’s currency system could break down. The Asians and those in the
Middle East are already forming new currency and trade platforms based upon
brand new trading ideas. The U.S. Dollar is headed to .4600 on our forecasts;
roughly a -50% haircut. We are all entering a brand new world. The old world
is a goner and those who cannot change will wither and fail.
Get with a new program and be busy moving in the right direction. The time
is now and the time is short. We think after May, 2009, several chances to
implant new trades, investment ideas, personal events and other things will
be too late.
Imposition of government capital controls can impede moving your business,
cash, funds, and retirement in or, out of the U.S. It might be very expensive
and difficult; or impossible.
Survivors and Those Who Win Buy Gold And Silver
We think the secret to getting through this is to hunker down, eliminate debts,
keep a low profile, trade in gold and silver shares during this first quarter
along with futures, and then adjust in April when stocks sell off. Gold topped
out near $850 years ago right where our price is today. We forecast 80% of
the gold upside is still ahead in these markets. Silver is behind gold for
now but will catch-up. They never trade like twins most of the time. We think
the worst silver could do is $50; but expect much higher prices.
We look forward with anticipation to some great fun in these markets. If you
are not in a position now, hurry-up and get it done. The door is open for all
the shares’ markets including our precious metals. Futures traders in
gold and silver have been trading this past week in large size. It seems the
new trend is established and our long awaited rallies are underway.
In Trader Tracks, we provide weekly guidance and extra e-mail alerts to report
our best new trades and offer suggestions for trade management. Visit our web
site at WeBeatTheStreet.com for
more information on our spectacular futures and commodities trading record.
Whatever you do, make a concerted effort to stay with our trend and hang onto
your core holdings of favorite shares, cash, and coins. Physical gold should
never be sold or, traded but rather accumulated steadily on a monthly savings
plan.
Recent news says you cannot find any [bullion] coins or small bars. We see
delays and back-orders but some dealers have goods in hand right now. Go shopping.
Should
you have
difficulty buying physical metals, we suggest placing an order and being patient.
Big traders are always ready to buy the dips and normally never sell their
gold and silver. You would be amazed how quickly your physical gold and silver
will accumulate using this strategy.
Roger Wiegand
Editor, Trader Tracks
Newsletter & The Rog Blog at WeBeatTheStreet.com
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12 Letters Re: The Gray Man in the Coming Storm
Jim:
Contrary to your apparent slew of letters, I thought that the Gray
Man article article made a lot of sense. Come the time that the government
actually moves against [gun owners] to that
extent, we can be picked off one by one, leaving a lot of widows and orphans,
or we can survive and live. A dead patriot does no one any good.
The “Gray Man” theory is thoroughly fleshed out in a book by Jefferson
Mack, entitled “Invisible
Resistance to Tyranny.” I
was deeply affected by this book, and encourage others to read it.
For the record, I would be considered paranoid by most “normal” people.
I despise our government, and despair at the looming storm on the horizon.
I don’t participate in the frauds they call elections. I work at a good
job and mind my own business. I am far from wealthy, but have laid up some
of the basics to survive. Including privately purchased guns, ammo, and food.
I will never buy another gun from a dealer.
When the time comes, I will have to make the decision on how to survive. I
believe our government is far more intrusive than most of us can imagine already.
When and if it strikes to remove our few remaining freedoms, we will have to
choose whether to survive living “normal” lives, or be killed for
our beliefs.
There is no honor in needless death. - David W.
Hello!
I must disagree with lots of your correspondent who stated: "What good will
it do “Gray Man” to teach his children of Liberty
after he has given their Liberties away?", et cetera.
Any real Liberty-supporting organization must have a plan for the worst:
The police state has made a list of anybody who has participated in any political
action, selectively arrested and executed them.
Or, as I have stated in letter to some technocrat, "It's honest to try
to win. It's stupid to assume you will win".
Examples:
Negative: In Israel, the right-wing organizations fiercely fought against
leaving Gaza settlements. But they didn't do anything to prepare for leaving,
and now
8,000 [former] Gaza settlers are still living in cardboard boxes without
work.
Positive: Long ago I have read the story. During WWII in some Yugoslav town
there were partisans, actively fighting against Hitler. They stated that
their victories were due to intelligence from mysterious Agent Red Star.
When Agent
Red Star died with rifle in her hands, partisans at last announced who she
was. Everybody was shocked to find that the famous Agent was a prostitute
hated by everybody because she slept with Nazis only and was the only one
in all
town who met occupiers with flowers.
She sacrificed her life fortune and sacred honor for Victory and for her
people. - Thor
Jim,
I'm going to play the devil's advocate here and play the flip side of "The
Gray Man". I'm not going to extol any perceived benefits of cowering down
and accepting the mark or sitting idly by while tyranny encroaches us. However,
strategically I think there might be some benefit to be gained by having a
man on the inside, if you will. Whether this person or persons will be in the
military, civil service, government agencies, even a regular citizen (who is
privy to the control grid that may be in place) or a combination thereof is
largely irrelevant. What is important is the fact that having an insider in
the machine may prove to be invaluable if it ever devolves into an all out
Them versus Us. Throughout history double agents and traitors on the inside
have proved far more damaging than brute force attacks from the outside. I
hate
to reference literary rubbish like The Turner Diaries, but in that "book" there
was a group of people who could be said will not receive the mark (who were
de facto "marked" men, for lack of a better word) and clean people
who could be said will receive the mark that were there for support and logistics.
Or to take another example, during WWII there were the partisans who performed
direct actions against the enemy, and then there were the regular villagers
who offered them food, shelter, and other aid while giving the outward appearance
of conformity. Just something to think about as many people, especially those
with families, might think twice about resisting the mark when their families
are sick, starving, or dying.
A rock that is thrown against an engine probably wont do much, but if that
rock is inside bouncing around it has the potential to completely obliterate
the engine.
As always, all the best to you and yours. - O.E.
JWR,
You posted several letters 'rebutting' the Gray Man theory. There must be
some "very
brave" souls out there. Although I have taken, saved, and witnessed many
lives go and stay, I can't comprehend fighting a fight knowing I would die
leaving my family as servants/slaves/prostitutes, etc. Possibly the Gray
man lives on to fight another day. Possibly the Gray man does not, and stays
on as a father figure to his children so that they (God forbid) can win a war
he knows he cannot. It is easy to sit behind a PC and type a courageous letter.
It is much harder to kill (hardest of all), leave a friend to die, die yourself,
and worst of all leave your family alone for a lost cause. Taken in literal
context this letter is offensive to anyone who has fought for any cause. Taken
in a figurative context, the letter is 100% on the money.
To all the tough and carelessly brave out there, thank you for your courage.
To the other Gray Men not wanting to die, and not wanting to martyr, I say:
hold fast. God will judge, time will remember and for goodness sake never
never
never give up.
This is not being subservient, cowardly or submissive. In your novel "Patriots" nobody
stormed an armed bunker to prove a point. Just because they would look cool
to others surviving in trying times. This is being smart when the time
comes. - K.
Jim,
I had a conservation with a friend a while back. He said he was afraid "they" would
be coming for our guns soon. I told him, it is like back in WW ll, the Nazis
collecting. It is your duty as an American to shoot the collectors, or at least
as many as
you can. There are way more gun owners than there are gun collectors, so they
will loose. They will run out of collectors, even is we can
only 'get' one of
them, at each confiscation.
This is where I draw the line. If 'they' get the drop on me, I may not be able
to stop any, but I will do what I can to defend our nation from illegal confiscation
and tyranny. - Henry Bowman
Mr. Rawles,
My fiancee' and I do not agree with the Gray Man theory and we are willing
to stand up and fight for our country as our capabilities will allow.
We also feel we must speak out about the contributors that have posted survival
advice from their retreats in South America and the Islands. There is an old
Irish Saying that goes: "Over the fence is out". Those folks have
no advice to give American Patriots who choose to stay and try to protect our
way of life here in America. As far as we are concerned they are just Gray
Men who have fled the country and are too cowardly to stick it out here and
try to take back the way of life we all used to enjoy. We don't want to hear
about their preparations or their retreat or anything about them.
Yes, we also are planning our retreat to the mountains in the near future but
when the time comes to stand up and be counted we feel that we will be able
to do that more effectively out of the city. We will not be hiding in a cave
when the time comes to fight. Sincerely, - Irishgirl
Mr. Editor,
In defense of the "Gray Man" article , historically oppressed
people have quietly rebelled against their oppressors.
Just because some keyboard commando says he'll fight to the death or "vote
from the rooftops" doesn't mean he won't be peeing his pants or turning
in his neighbors when the government comes to confiscate firearms or impose
new laws/rules.
We've all seen what happens to people that defy the government and that's unlikely
to change. Just as England, Australia and Canada have given up their rights
, so shall we and it will be done to the cheering of our fellow countrymen.-
Ulysses Grant
Jim,
Some of your readers commented on the "cowardly" nature of E.'s post
to your blog "Letter Re: The Gray Man in the Coming Storm" and I
find their responses are predicated on idealism and not on an objective assessment of the State apparatus and the comorbid social, cultural
and political factors supporting it.
The flag-waving patriot, bumper-sticker aficionado and cammie-clad militia
man all draw attention to themselves, and these behaviors, when taken together
and combined with other data, create a behavior cluster that might draw unwelcome investigative scrutiny. The idea that one
person can make a difference by opposing the State in it's present condition
is dangerous not only because one patriot is removed from action but also because such "successes" embolden the
State and it's Sheeple followers thus strengthen perception of the State's
legitimacy. One person opposing the State allows the State's resources to bear on one target and without a larger rebellion to distribute
those resources (in the first case this is a "many to one" problem,
the second is a "many to many" problem), the State wins.
The counter-insurgency in Iraq has changed the paradigm of combat and law enforcement.
Intelligence Based Operations are the cornerstone of modern counter-insurgency
(COIN) and this has created the specter of Intelligence Based Policing. Fundamentally, these involved
pre-emptive Find, Fix Kill/Arrest through collection, social network analysis
and application of Operations Research. Collection is key, meaning data has to be fresh and relevant. There
is no want of intelligence on US persons. The FBI maintains vast holdings of
such in Clarksburg, West Virginia and commercial providers like Choicepoint, Accurint and LEXIS-NEXIS contribute greatly to
this Panopticon.
So, the citizen cannot help be collected upon, however we may conceal certain
practices and behaviors through covert and clandestine
techniques---one of which is not to draw attention to themselves or activities.
That's were the Gray Man has an advantage---in denying and degrading collection.
One can resist overtly about RFID chips
being against your religion, but the State cares not---it is it's own religion.
The American War for Independence was a linear, 1st Generation battlefield,
not a net-centric 4th Generation battlefield with an immense intelligence infrastructure
supporting it In short, it is difficult to conceal oneself, but concealing
certain activities is possible. Future success goes not to flag waving ideologues,
but skillful practitioners. Remain uninteresting. -
Mark in Potomac
Jim,
I strongly suggest reading Andy McNab's book Bravo Two Zero in which
the British SAS soldier who was captured behind enemy lines while hunting Scud
[missile launcher]s in 1991. McNab spoke of the SAS's concept of being the "Gray
Man".
It served him in pretending to be nothing more than a mere, hapless soldier
caught
up
(pun
intended) in some bad circumstances. The concept of the Gray Man is that he
doesn't draw attention to himself, people won't likely have remembered meeting
him, his appearance nondescript. In essence, he's just any other face in the
crowd.
In our pr
