  
|
||||||||
About .
Advertise .
Affiliates .
ALERT - Flu .
Archives .
Benefit Auction .
Biographies .
Bookshelf .
Charity .
Contact .
Contest .
Corrosive? .
Derivatives .
Email Us .
FAQs .
Finding Others .
Gear .
Glossary .
Getting Started .
Home .
Investing .
Kudos .
Links .
Link to Us .
Memsahib .
NAIS .
Nickels .
Peak Oil .
Prayer .
Precepts .
Profiles .
Provisos .
Retreat Areas .
RSS Feed .
Support .
Survival Guns .
SurvivalRealty.com .
Targets / Logs .
Ten Cent Challenge .
TMM Forum .
Writings .
|
||||||||
|
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Three Letters Re: Covert Home Power for When The Grids Go Down » Sunday December 20 2009Economics and Investing:Reader M.S. spotted this editorial by James Quinn: Brave New World 2010. This editorial by Frank Seuss was linked over at The Daily Bell: The Life-Long Challenge of Differentiating Between Truth, Paradigms, Truisms and Plain Lies RLG sent this video clip: Ryedale Coin Penny Sorter. Keep in mind how much profit from how many hundreds of thousands of pennies it would take to recoup the cost of buying a sorting machine. To my mind, this is a hobby business strictly for retirees with strong backs! Bill from Ohio sent this: Six Banks shut down Friday - 140 total this year Items from The Economatrix: 12 Gift Ideas That Save Recipients Money Great ideas to help tight budgets! Fewer States Add Jobs as Recovery Sputters Along Greece Hit By Strikes as Debt Crisis Grows ECB Raises Estimate on Bank Writedowns Dollar Rises as Stocks, Commodities in Flight From Risk « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Prepping as an Active Duty Servicemember Overseas » Saturday December 19 2009Economics and Investing:Mark Lundeen at Gold Eagle asks: How could GDP have increased 2.8% and yet electrical power consumption in the US declined by 5.04%? The latest from the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Southern California and the MLS Myth: Why the MLS does not Provide an Accurate Picture of Housing Inventory. Shadow Inventory, Foreclosures, and Fantasy Housing Numbers. Red State Ranger sent us this: You Can Negotiate Anything. BTW, I recommend that you read my archived article on savvy bartering, for some more negotiating tactics. (The Economatrix is snowed in today, with no Internet service available.)« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Five Letters Re: Covert Home Power for When The Grid Goes Down » Friday December 18 2009Economics and Investing:Eric C. sent us a link to a recent Peter Schiff interview over at The Motley Fool: A Tough Year Ahead for the U.S. Economy? From Hal N.: Greenspan backs deficit-reduction commission Items from The Economatrix: A World Crisis No Bailout Can Stop « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Survival Tools » Thursday December 17 2009Economics and Investing:Jim B. recommended this video on the Federal Reserve: The Dollar Bubble. Randy K. suggested this item: by the ever-cheery Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Gulf petro-powers to launch currency in latest threat to dollar hegemony From J.S.: More countries at risk of default. Items from The Economatrix: World Losing Faith in Debt-Laden UK « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Infrared Imaging Countermeasures » Wednesday December 16 2009Economics and Investing:I found this linked over at The Drudge Report: Democrats plan nearly $2 trillion debt limit hike Damon sent this: Cleaning up after real estate debacle Larry mentioned this BBC piece: Greece 'faces sinking under debt' Items from The Economatrix: Bankruptcy of US Now Certain « Three Letters Re: Sources for Prescription Medications? |Main| Letter Re: Fitness Training for WTSHTF » Tuesday December 15 2009Letter Re: Deflation for How Long?
Dear Captain Rawles,
Deflationary pressures may continue for far longer than many people expect. Or, as Keynes said, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". - Dave R. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Three Letters Re: Sources for Prescription Medications? » Economics and Investing:R.R. sent this: NS&I withdraws all its fixed-rate savings bonds Chris mentioned an article on the new underground economy and the avoidance of bank accounts. Thanks to Joan M. for finding this one: D-Day nears for Dubai's $3.5 billion debt hurdle Also from Joan come this CBC (Canada) piece: Peak oil: Problems and possibilities Items from The Economatrix: World Stocks Up on $10 Billion Dubai Rescue « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Monday December 14 2009Economics and Investing:Tom W. liked this piece by Todd Harrison at Minyanville: What in the World Is Going On? Trent H. suggested this video clip: Globe "Overdue for a Currency Crisis"; Why Jim Rogers is Buying Dollars GG flagged this: The Coming Wave of Debt Defaults Items from The Economatrix: Sovereign Debt Defaults the Next Shoe to Drop? « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: A Prepared Christmas » Sunday December 13 2009Economics and Investing:Regular content contributor GG mentioned this in The Wall Street Journal: Are Your U.S. Treasury Bonds Safe? The price of credit default swaps jumped by more than 50% in the private market in recent months. Frank S. sent this Friday Follies Update: Three bank failures take year's tally to 133 "3Can" mentioned that the IBD had a good discussion of gold related to purchases by central banks. Items from The Economatrix: « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Four Letters Re: In Praise of Betadine » Saturday December 12 2009Economics and Investing:HPD highlighted this one: 100 Ridiculous Projects Funded by the American Recovery Act SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson spotted this piece in the Wall Street Journal: How to lose $127 million. Items from The Economatrix: Federal Budget Deficit for November Hits $120.3 Billion « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Friday December 11 2009Economics and Investing:Reader P.D. sent this: 10 Countries most likely to default. (It is notable that because of the size of its economy, they listed California among the list of "nations" at risk of default!) Russ J. recommended a link from Nathan's Economic Edge. to an MP3 recording of John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics. Russ's comment: "His conclusions, if they prove out, could easily land us all in a "Patriots" scenario". El Jefe Jeff E. sent this: U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak. Jeff's comment: "Home foreclosures topped 300,000 in October for the eighth straight month, and still growing. As you know, the bulk of foreclosures are working its way through the system like a gopher in a garden hose." The folks at The Daily Bell linked to this Telegraph article: Volcker Sees No Value in Derivatives. Here is a key quote: "He said credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations had taken the economy 'right to the brink of disaster' and added that the economy had grown at 'greater rates of speed' during the 1960s without such products. When one stunned audience member suggested that Mr. Volcker did not really mean bond markets and securitizations had contributed "nothing at all", he replied: 'You can innovate as much as you like, but do it within a structure that doesn't put the whole economy at risk.' He said he agreed with George Soros, the billionaire investor, who said investment banks must stick to serving clients and "proprietary trading should be pushed out of investment banks and to hedge funds where they belong". Items from The Economatrix: Americans Want Money Spent for Jobs, Send Bill to Rich « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: Sources for Prescription Medications? » Thursday December 10 2009Letter Re: We Have Some Hard Decisions Ahead
Dear SurvivalBloggers: People who relied on spouses to pay the bills are now paying the bills. Those who have relied on savings and unemployment benefits to maintain their standard of living are now faced with the reality that those resources are exhausted. Bills are not being paid. Healthcare premiums are not being paid. Automobile and household maintenance is being neglected which will create costlier repairs down the road. Simply put:
Basic human needs will become the biggest priority in your life after you shed the things that have merely brought comfort and convenience to you. You may be forced to downscale your lifestyle so dramatically that it will cause you to question your own intelligence and hindsight for not planning for such a life changing event. The things that you have always taken for granted could become difficult to obtain now that there is no longer enough money to buy those things. Basic needs become vital issues that need to be addressed:
The times that we endure today will be the history that others will read tomorrow. History has shown us events that have destroyed some societies and created new ones to take their place. Those who rise to power often decide the fate of millions. And there have been times when a people rise up as a nation, united to achieve mutual goals of prosperity and hope for a better future. Today as a nation, Americans must uphold their moral convictions and beliefs that a nation of people that stand united will not perish. There are events occurring in this country that could change the very existence of our nation as we know it. And no one person or political party can decide the best course of action to insure our prosperity and hopes will not be taken away from us. The answer to our problems is right in front of us, and we must cling to it as if it is our only hope, because it is the only thing We The People have left: The Constitution of the United States of America . We must set aside our differences and unite as a nation before those that would profit from our demise succeed in destroying us. - T.R. in, Florida « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Chad S. was the first of several readers to mention: Feared "super spike" in rice prices Reader T.H. pointed us to this troubling piece: Sovereign Debt Defaults Likely Over Next Several Years, Says Rogoff From Brett: G.: Experts: Greece Going Bankrupt Could Doom Euro Items from The Economatrix: Stocks Climb as Investors Shrug Off Debt Concerns $700 Billion Bailout Extended Until October Crude Oil Falls to 2-Month Low Financial Markets Tumble After Fitch Downgrades Greece's Credit Rating Ex-Fed Chief Volcker's "Telling" Remarks On Derivatives Soros Warns Against Rebuilding Same "Humpty Dumpty" Financial System Few CEO's Plan to Hire In Next 6 Months US Job Openings, Hirings Slip In October Lawmakers Impatient with Obama Mortgage Plan « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Feeding Your Family Well During Hard -- and Harder -- Times, by Lin H. » Wednesday December 9 2009Economics and Investing:Items from The Economatrix: Shockwave From Dubai Default About to Hit Markets « Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter From Mike Williamson Re: The Pen is Mightier than the Sword » Tuesday December 8 2009Letter Re: Buying a House in Australia?
Dear James: Although Australia is a large continent, most of the population is located on the eastern sea-board mostly because of the arid interior. House prices have not fallen dramatically during the GFC and houses in capital cities are dearer than those in regional centres. But even in capital cities, there can be great differences in house prices in the different suburbs. I suggest that in the first instance that anyone relocating, rents for a period of time until they find their feet, a job, a location and a lifestyle with which they feel comfortable. For a general overview of housing in Australia I suggest browsing through Realestate.com.au or Domain.com.au. Both of those sites will give plenty of information on houses/units/land for sale and houses/units for rent. - Margaret G. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Buying a House in Australia? » Economics and Investing:Carla alerted us to this article: Recent World Events Indicate Impending Market Chaos, by Giordano Bruno. F.G. and Matt C. were the first of several readers that flagged this apropos piece in The Wall Street Journal: Green Acres Is the Place to Be; The Recession Is Inspiring More Young Families and Singles to Head Back to the Country Thanks to GG for finding this: S&P says European companies face $1.5 trillion funding shortfall next year Items from The Economatrix: Geithner Slams Wall Street Bonuses, Says All Big Banks Could Have Failed A Deeper Look Behind The Jobless Numbers. Despite the upbeat report, long-term unemployment worsens North Koreans Burn Bills in Anger Over Currency Reform « Letter Re: Best Military Manuals with Field Fortification Designs? |Main| Letter Re: Free Local EMS Training » Monday December 7 2009Letter Re: Buying a House in Australia?
Dear Mr Rawles, My wife and I will finally settle down in Melbourne, Australia in 2010 after years of relocating internationally due to my work - we finally obtained the Australian resident permit! As a result of all the traveling, we have also had to leave all our savings in banks for all these years. We prefer living in a region to know it well before purchasing property, so we will probably purchase a house sometime in 2010-2011. As many (including yourself) have convinced me of rising gold prices and crashing fiat values in the coming years, it makes a lot of sense to buy Australian gold bullion/stamped bars using our savings, and converting them to cash just before purchasing property. What is your opinion on this? The worst-case scenario I can see is a minor loss in profitability whereby interests from the bank would have yielded more 'profit'. As I am risk-averse, there are few 'investment' opportunities for me outside of term deposits. Thanks for your advice. Blessings, - David C. JWR Replies: I cannot comment on the particulars of the housing market in Oz, but it is apparent that the real estate market is far from the recovery stage in the US and presumably in the rest of the English-speaking nations. Here in the States, I suspect that it will be 6 to 12 years before the residential real estate market recovers. But things might be considerably different, Down Under. With that said, if you find a truly retreat-worthy property (say, with a shallow well, defendable acreage with plenty of room for gardens, and that has an exposure advantageous for photovoltaics) and you an buy it below current market prices, then you might consider it. Just keep in mind that prices are likely to continue to drop, and it may be a long time before that investment that will appreciate in value. if you do decide ito park your money in tangibles--and you probably should do just that if you are indeed risk averse--then Australian Mint Kookaburra one ounce gold coins are a good choice. Just be sure to buy ion a "dip" day. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Reader HPD mentioned this article: 24 States Borrow Money To Pay Unemployment Benefits. HPD's comment: "Don't worry. The Fed sees signs of recovery... Besides, Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi are on the scene to fix it. " Another missive from Dr. Housing Bubble: Wall Street and Housing Neurosis: The Real Cost of California Homeownership. Extreme Foreclosures, Option ARMs, Renting Utility Costs, and Breaking the Financially Twisted Psychology. Noah C. spotted this: Heh, I Thought Dubai Was a Non-Event. Here is a quote: "Refusal to stand-still means there's an immediate default, which means the [credit default swaps] go boom" Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Solo Survival in a Societal Collapse?, by Wry Catcher » Sunday December 6 2009Economics and Investing:More Friday Follies: U.S. Bank Failures Continue Apace. "Cleveland-based AmTrust Bank, with 66 branches and roughly $8 billion in deposits, was closed by regulators Friday, as the ongoing credit crunch continued to claim victims." Financial institutions urged to make banking accessible UN says global economy will bounce back in 2010. [Again, one for the Economic Humor section.] Items from The Economatrix: Goldman Sachs December Party Ban: No Groups of 12 Or More. So, 10 lords a leaping, nine ladies dancing is totally OK. But if you see 12 bankers — they'd better be banking! Most Americans Not Confident About Financial Future Stocks Mostly Rise as Fed Sees Improving Economy Senator Moves to Block Bernanke Confirmation BofA to Repay TARP, Raise Cash Ample Supply of Oil Drives Prices Below $77 « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Observations on Hand-Powered Tools » Saturday December 5 2009Economics and Investing:From reader J.D.: Rural America Surprisingly Prosperous, Study Finds Reader Ben M. suggested this article: How to Tell if You are Saving Enough. Items from The Economatrix: Retailers Report Surprise Drop In November Poor Report On Services Saps Stock Market Gains Services Sector Activity, Retail Sales Disappoint Weak Demand Puts Natural Gas Prices At 52-Week Low North Koreans In Shock As Cash Banned US Loses Another 169,000 Private Sector Jobs UN Economists Fear Hard Landing For Dollar US Service Industries Unexpectedly Contract Charting The Great World Trade Collapse As Housing Goes, So Falls The Economy European Banks Growing Bigger "Sowing The Seeds" Of Next Crisis Dubai Debacle Just Tip Of Iceberg More Evidence Gold Being Hoarded As Comex Fulfills Gold Contracts With Paper « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Friday December 4 2009Economics and Investing:A recent piece at the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Shadow Inventory in 10 Prime Southern California Cities. How Pent up Inventory and Option ARMs are the new Front for the California Housing Market. K.T. sent this from Dan Denninger: FDIC Deposit fund had negative $8.2B balance in Third Quarter Jeff B. spotted this: More Evidence Gold is Being Hoarded as Comex Fulfills Gold Contracts with Paper Items from The Economatrix: Where Dubai Leads, Britain Could Soon Follow Lloyds To Suffer Further Job Losses Fears Of Credit Card Crisis As Bank Write-Offs Double Peter Schiff: Bull Market in Gold or BS? Britain Faces Return to Victorian Levels of Poverty « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Another COMSEC Warning on Social Networking Web Services » Thursday December 3 2009Economics and Investing:HPD recommended these observations from Mish Shedlock: Virginia Borrows $1.26 Billion to Pay Unemployment Benefits; Detroit Loses $400 Million on $800 Million of Bonds; Detroit's Easy Solution I'm sure that you've noticed the surge in spot silver and gold prices. The last time I checked, spot silver was at $19.26, per ounce, and gold was at $1,212 per ounce! There will likely soon be some profit taking, so be ready to buy on those dips! Chad S. sent these other links: What's Worse? Hyperinflation or Deep Recession? National Inflation Association's 10 Most Interesting New Answers Bob Chapman's analysis: Potential For Fed To Hyperinflate Items from The Economatrix: More Consumers Late on Auto Loan Repayments in Third Quarter Morgan Stanley Fears UK Sovereign Debt Crisis In 2010 Gold $1,200; Gold And Silver Up 13% and 14% In November Food Stamp Usage Across The Country Fed Moves To Drain Some Money Out Of The Economy Unemployment Rises In Almost Half Of Metro Areas Fed Survey Finds Recovery Gaining Momentum.. [JWR Adds: We really should have a "Humor" department to file these news items.] Stocks, Commodities Rise On Dubai, China; Dollar Weakens The New Iceland? Greece Fights To Rein In Debt « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Another COMSEC Warning on Social Networking Web Services » Wednesday December 2 2009Economics and Investing:From frequent content contributor GG: Gold acquires new investment aura: The weight of gold coins sold by the US Mint far this year has exceeded the one million ounce mark, up 40% year-on-year Sticker Shock at Pump: Gas Prices Poised to Soar Jeff mentioned this over at Zero Hedge: Is The Fed Facing Margin Calls From European Banks? Knocking off two zeroes. (BTW, don't gloat, the US Dollar may be next to have a 100-for-1 exchange): North Korea Revalues Currency to Curb Free Trade. (A tip of the hat to SSK for the link.) Trent spotted this: What Recovery? U.S. Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse,” Howard Davidowitz Says Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Securing Bedroom Doors Against Home Invaders » Tuesday December 1 2009Economics and Investing:GG sent this: Far from being a safe haven, the dollar is the likely source of the next financial crisis Also from GG: We must get ready for a weak-dollar world Items from The Economatrix: UAE to Back Banks Amid Dubai Meltdown Professor Advises Underwater Mortgage Holders to Walk Away From Mortgage (Back in August, 2005, JWR warned us that these walk-aways were coming.) Furious Investors Warn Dubai it Will Never Raise Another Penny How Much Longer Can the Dollar Defy Gravity? South Africa's Golden Age Coming to An End Senator Opposes Bernanke's Renomination Few Signposts Mark the Road to Economic Recovery Shoppers Spent Less Over Black Friday Weekend Unemployed Turn to Church Networking Groups Idle Hands: Some Puritan Advice for the Unemployed Treasury To Push More Mortgage Firms to Reduce More Loan Payments Home Prices May Be Headed Back Down « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Monday November 30 2009Economics and Investing:Frank S. sent this: FDIC cites Loveland's Advantage Bank; Announcement states business uses unsafe and unsound banking practices Paul D. recommended a short but excellent article by financial advisor, Jeff Clark. "In short, his advice is to learn to grow a tomato!" Items from The Economatrix: Dubai Debt Fears Threaten Credit Crunch 2, and RBS is Exposed « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: "Cross-wire" Your Home Heating and Save Money » Sunday November 29 2009Economics and Investing:Damon sent this: U.S. dollar collapse could devastate economy: book Chad S. spotted an article about indigent families now having to bury dead family members themselves. C.K. in Texas mentioned that there was a PBS mini-series this past summer (available online) about how money gained its importance over time. It was called The Ascent of Money and the fourth episode would be of interest to many SurvivalBlog readers. C.K.'s description: "It talks about the hyperinflation that occurred in Argentina years ago (so bad that ranchers wouldn't bring their cattle to market) and also about the fragile economics of Chinese and US trade." Items from The Economatrix: Black Friday Store Spending Edges Up; Online Sales Soar « Two Letters Re: Generator Experiences During a Recent Nor'easter |Main| Notes from JWR: » Saturday November 28 2009A Frugal Wife's Contributions to Preparedness, by Desert Dawn
This is for the Ladies: take the lead on frugality to finance your family preparedness! Below are things I do and have done, some for years, some for only a few months. You’d be amazed at how much starts accumulating in your checking account when you do these things. I have paid off credit cares and bought a rifle with scope, some junk silver, 1,000 rounds of ammo and a more than three month food supply since I started being more serious about these things. My husband and I are professionals making good salaries – at least for now. We are fortunate to be able to live in a small town in a relatively low-cost area. This allows us to avoid some of the gratuitous spending pitfalls in larger urban areas, such as parking fees and bridge tolls. We have 10 mile commutes. We are able to live fairly simply. We still seem normal in the workplace, but there are some tricks for this that I will share. Why? Because if you are just waking up to the need to start your preparedness and are not already frugal, these are some good ways to free up disposable income without suddenly showing up at work looking really different and starting the curiosity mill.... First is transportation. For your ‘normal’ part of life, remember that the vast majority of automobiles are not investments, they are financial liabilities that depreciate every moment. My husband and I have different work hours at widely-spread places, so we commute separately in old Hondas. His is a 1991, mine is a 2000. We inherited both from my parents, so no high payments for fancy cars. We keep up the routine maintenance but not at the dealer, though we have a trusted mechanic for the tricky stuff. With rare exception, they get clean in the rain (we have no road salt issues here). I haven’t had to make a car payment since 1992, and I bought that car with cash. Our G.O.O.D. vehicle is a truck and we paid cash. Occasionally someone will make a crack about my car – essentially that at my salary I should be able to afford a nice car. I just smile and make some benign remark as I think about all that I save on transportation and how that money is helping me be more prepared. Next, if you work and must keep looking ‘normal’ here are some tips on The Office Look if you haven’t been able to take the leap to work out of your retreat. Bar soap is probably too harsh for most of us. Get some Neutrogena facial wash (unscented) and a stack of cheap washcloths – the kind that come in 12 packs and have really short loops in the terry. Dilute the Neutrogena by half with warm water so it mixes well. Use one or two pumps on a wet washcloth in the shower – work it into the cloth well before you start and use it all over, from the top down. Remember that both sides of the cloth are soapy! Fanny is next to last, feet are last. ( Use a clean cloth each day or rinse well and let dry in the sun so you don’t end up with a fungus from your feet). You have just been cleaned and exfoliated. If you don’t like this brand, use a mild shower gel but dilute it by at least half. Shower gel is commercially engineered for you to use much more than you need so you will buy more and sooner. By diluting, you get better foaming and waste less – either pump or sprinkle on the cloth. Now, use a little Aveeno daily moisture lotion on your face and your parts that get dry. It will not make your skin oily or plug your pores. Buy the stuff in the big bottle for $8, not in the expensive little bottles. If you need a sunscreen, then get the Aveeno in the big bottle with SPF 15. You have just replaced at least 5 products at $20 or more each with 3 (4 if you include the bundle of washcloths) for a total of less than $20. That gives you $80 to buy ammo or junk silver this month. See where this is going? For your work cosmetics: do your research. Many of the K-Mart brands are the expensive department store brands without the pushy sales people. Learn a basic routine that puts on eye makeup first, then the rest. Otherwise you use more product fixing the mistakes. Most of us can get by with very little makeup, and we look better for it. If you really like a specific brand, you can probably find it for about half price on eBay. Most of the sellers are basically honest– just check their feedback. This change can free up $100 a year or more, depending on your habit. For your things that grow: Stop getting nail jobs. Long cutesy nails make you look less professional and cost a bundle. Trim and file your own. Keep them short and clean. There’s $30 a month, more if you stop pedicures, laser hair removal, tans, etc.. I still get a haircut, with no color or perm, about every 8 weeks from a one-woman salon in another small town. She charges $15 a cut. Even with a tip, I enjoy a ‘private consultation’ for a quarter of the price I was paying with my perm-and-cut style at a conventional salon. So, there’s another $25 to $50 a month by being you! For your wardrobe: Simplify, Simplify, Simplify. Choose two color palettes of relatively timeless pieces. Mine are in black and navy blue. I have several black skirts, pants and jackets in black, less in Navy. Black works well because you don’t have the same ‘shades’ problem as you get with navy. Black is black. I have some different shirts and an odd skirt or pair of pants (gray, wedgewood blue) just to keep it from looking too uniform-ish. The jackets are in the washable Traveler styles from on-line cataloguers, hence no dry cleaning. I wash on gentle and hang to dry. I have two sets of navy and black shoes – same shoes in both colors. I wear black or navy hose. Everything mixes and matches easily. I have a couple of nice pairs of pearl earrings and make my own pearl necklaces by stringing the sale pearls from Fire Mountain Gems. There’s my professional working woman wardrobe. I plan to retire in a year, so I will buy even fewer items before I retire. Do this and your ‘wardrobe spending’ goes way down. I went from 80% dry cleaning to about 10% dry cleaning using this basic scheme, so have saved money there as well. Stockings, one or two tops and a couple of pairs of shoes a year are your shopping list once you have the basics -- possible replace a piece or two if too well worn. Just the dry cleaning part of this saves about $50 a month. Personal habits: Around The House: In the kitchen: Your water: Laundry: Electricity: Tissue Hand soap « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Sources for Food Grade Buckets » Economics and Investing:Chad S. sent this: Get ready for 65 percent tax rates. Also from Chad: "You could be running out of time to buy gold" Items from The Economatrix: Signs of Life in Stores as Holiday Shopping Begins « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Friday November 27 2009Economics and Investing:Bobbi-Sue mentioned an extensive Niall Ferguson interview. Bobbi-Sue's comment: "Ferguson is still bearish based on historical norms and a few of his other popular ideas such as the China/America dance." From Damon S.: Dubai Debt Woes Turn Ugly After It Seeks Standstill Deal Items from The Economatrix: FDIC Rescue Fund Slides into the Red « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Eight Letters Re: Mountain Money Isn't » Thursday November 26 2009Economics and Investing:A news item flagged by GG: IMF: Banks Still Hiding Half of Their Actual Losses; $1.5 trillion in bad debt on bank balance sheets, and losses on these bad loans still threaten the solvency of many institutions. From El Jefe Jeff E.: One in Four Borrowers Is Underwater Also from Jeff E.: FDIC Reports 552 ‘Problem Banks’ As of Sept. 30, 2009 Items from The Economatrix: IMF Warns Second Bailout Would Threaten Democracy « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: B&M Baked Beans and Canned Bread » Wednesday November 25 2009Economics and Investing:GG sent this: A Mad Rush as Gold Bugs Get the Boot FAF sent this from Fox News: Economic Growth Revised Down in 3rd Quarter Items from The Economatrix: Crude Prices Sink Down Near $76 « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Letter Re: Seeking Advice on Safe Food Storage, and Recommended Sources » Tuesday November 24 2009Economics and Investing:GG flagged this: The Debt Bomb: Uncle Sam on teaser rate Randy F. sent this: Payback Time - Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government Items from The Economatrix: Stocks Climb on Report Showing Jump in Home Sales From that oft-quoted French Think Tank: Red Alert: The Second Wave of the Financial Tsunami. It could hit between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2010 « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Monday November 23 2009Economics and Investing:More than a dozen readers mentioned this London Telegraph article: Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'. Gee, folks must be catching on... Beepaw sent this: Bloomberg news: U.S. Housing Recovery Delayed to 2010 as Market Wanes. BeePaw's comment: "It is remarkable that the [same] pundits who failed to see the crisis at all are now able to pinpoint its recovery. I don’t believe the markets will recover in 2010. Or 2011. Or 2012." Peter D, suggested the latest installment of some speculative fiction from John Galt: “I Have Been to the Fields of Gettysburg” (The Day the Dollar Died Part III) « Two Letters Re: Oral Rehydration Solutions |Main| The Fabric of Our Lives by Jeanan » Sunday November 22 2009Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals
Dear Jim, « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Oral Rehydration Solutions » Economics and Investing:From regular content contributor GG: Barron's: Collapse in Treasury note yields suggests economic distress Chad sent us this: More fixed-rate home loans going into foreclosure Also from Chad: Latest bank fee is for paying credit cards off on time. Items from The Economatrix: Gary North: Gov't Debt Default: How (Not If) Will It Happen The Critical Unraveling Of US Society What Has Government Done To The Dollar Commercial Real Estate Reality Check John Galta: American Hangover (Day the Dollar Died, Part II) Americans Save More But Earn Less As Rates Fall Central Bankers Blowing Bubbles In Global Stock Markets Financial And Economic Situation Could Get Ugly Fast Gold Steam Roller Running Towards $1,300 What If The Foreigners Stop Buying Our Debt? Roubini Says Gold $2,000 Utter Nonsense « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Three Letters Re: Getting a Christian Wife Involved With Preparedness » Saturday November 21 2009Economics and Investing:Flavio liked this interview with Robert Kiyosaki, where Bob is blunt about who really call the shots in the US, and he reiterates his advice to buy silver. GG flagged this: World economy setting itself up for a bigger bust, says Marc Faber El Jefe Jeff E. sent us a piece about the 124th US bank failure in 2009: Florida regulators close bank Items from The Economatrix: Karl Denninger Says Watch This: Glenn Beck and the Dollar Carry. Even if you don't agree with Glenn Beck, watch it, it's important « Six Letters Re: Oral Rehydration Solutions |Main| Letter Re: Short Term Survival or Long Term Self-Sufficiency? » Friday November 20 2009Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals
Dear CPT Rawles, JWR Replies: I also have a Gold IRA (also set up through Swiss America), and I highly recommend them. But given your age, I recommend that you get that gold in your own hands, at the first opportunity! Too many things can go wrong with warehousing, not the least of which is a change of government policy. In a severe economic crisis, all IRAs might become centralized (read: stolen) by the Federal government disappearing into some amorphous (and actually non-existent) "trust fund", just as they have done with our Social Security "contributions". We "contributed", all right! « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Parabolic Dish Shoutcasting » Economics and Investing:Jesse sent this: Short-Term Economic Boost from Fiscal Stimulus Outweighed by Long-Term Output Loss Also from Jesse: Why the Stock Market Should Crash From reader HPD: Bank Regulators "Reign of Terror" on Small Business Loans Items from The Economatrix: Stimulus Watch: Did the White House downplay errors in rush to take credit for job data? « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Thursday November 19 2009Economics and Investing:Tom B suggested this from WorldNetDaily: $120 Trillion in Derivatives. “They are privatizing the profits and socializing the losses.” Evi recommended this: Glenn Beck comments on a dollar collapse and global government. Items from The Economatrix: Stock Market Falls as Home Construction Slows « Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: HF Radios and "Shoutcasting" Parabolic Dish Communications » Wednesday November 18 2009Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals
Jim, JWR Replies: Since starting SurvivalBlog in 2005, several times I've mentioned that Gold Eagle IRAs are available through Swiss America. I set up one of these accounts through them in the late 1990s, and have held it ever since. My largest contributions to the account were made in 2000 and 2001, which was when gold dipped to a 20 year low. While not as absolutely safe as gold in your hands, these gold warehousing IRAs are a great way to shelter dollar-denominated funds that are presently parked in 401(k)s and IRAs. In most cases you can roll these over into a gold IRA without taking a tax hit! « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals » Economics and Investing:GG sent us this editorial by Nouriel Roubini: The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses. Jeff B. spotted: Taxpayers on hook as some bailed-out firms prove frail; With CIT in bankruptcy, U.S. is faulted for investing in weakened companies As Needlenose Ned Ryerson said (repeatedly): "Watch out! The next step's a doooozy." (For some background, see: Dollar Falls to 15-Month Low as Fed’s Support Draws Skepticism.) Meanwhile, at the risk of mixing movie metaphors, it's Hi-Yo Silver, Away! Items from The Economatrix: Stocks Post Modest Gains on Rise in Commodities « Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Long Term Food Storage Package Now Sold at COSTCO » Tuesday November 17 2009Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals
Jim, I don't own shares of bulk food companies, I own bulk food. That is what will feed me and mine. If you believe in the metals and want to store your value for the long haul then buy the metal itself. So the question now is as it should be, How do I get the most metal for my money? I am sure most who may be reading this do not trust the system as it is, so stop using it. First, stop putting cash into it. A matching 401(k) is the only reason I still play along, for now, its free money. Next take out what you don't want others (gov) to have access to or know about. Whatever you leave in the system (401(k), IRA, etc.), apply to ETFs and or mining stocks. Based on your investing time line and plan for TEOTWAWKI, your metal will be far more valuable than any dollar amount in any account. It will be hard enough just to cash out your accounts when TSHTF. The way I see it as a 31 year old, the Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Pension fund systems will not be available to me when the government let's me "retire". My company just this week told us that my age/time in service group will not be given health care benefits after retirement, so that just gives more credence to the impending need for self reliance. I believe in precious metals as a store of wealth over time. I also believe precious metals are a great investment at this time. In the Fall of 2008, I took a 50% loan out against my 401k (the most I could take without closing my account). The day I got the check I went to the store and spent 100% on silver bullion. The remaining half of the account is in silver and gold mining companies. From that time until now, my stocks are up more than my bullion, both though are moving up. Personally, I chose to keep my 401(k) account open and at a minimum as my company matches 5%. I continue to manage my account in "speculative" mining stocks. There are many people out there who believe in precious metals for the right reasons. If you are involved in ETFs and your not a hedge fund manager, read your prospectus. If you don't get out of them after that re-read it. Any penalty or tax that you pay to the system so that you can own the same thing in its natural form should be another eye opener to things going on around us all. Stay away from ETFs, buy physical metal and be prepared. God bless, - K.A. in Ohio « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals » Economics and Investing:GG suggested this commentary by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy Reader "Gravy" sent a link to an interesting animated map on changes in unemployment rates. Mr. D. sent a link to a National Pravda Radio news story: Joshua Kosman, Predicting The Next Credit Crisis. And on a similar note, GG sent this from The New York Post: Book: Spike in PE-owned firm defaults ahead Items from The Economatrix: Irish Government to Pay Immigrants to Go Home « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: A Bulk-Buying Solution--Form a Buyer's Club » Monday November 16 2009Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical MetalsMr. Rawles, JWR Replies: Sorry, but I don't know of any way to avoid the tax hit with cashing out an ETF. Perhaps a SurvivalBlog reader with a background in a tax law knows a way, and can comment. FWIW, I've never recommended ETFs. Rather, I 've always said: "tangibles, tangibles, tangibles". To me, in the context of precious metals that means owning the physical metal and holding in your own hands. I recommend that all of your future precious metals purchases be done that way, to eventually minimize you paper or "synthetic" metals holdings, « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Jonas sent this: GLD ETF Warning, Tungsten-Filled Fake Gold Bars GG flagged this: China: Loose US Policy, Weak USD Creating Speculation From Pamela E.: Arrogant Fed hasn't learned a thing Items from The Economatrix: White House Aims to Cut Deficit with Unspent TARP Money « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Wound Irrigation in Austere Environments » Sunday November 15 2009Economics and Investing:GG mentioned this in The Wall Street Journal: Widest-ever October budget deficit (more than all of 2006) More Friday Follies, with the link also courtesy of GG: Bank failure toll reaches 123; Regulators close two Florida banks and on in California, costing the FDIC $986.4 million. Gold will stay above $1,000 an ounce forever, says Swiss Dr. Doom. (Thanks to Laura H for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: Drop in US Energy Use Drags Stocks Lower « |Main| Seven Letters Re: How Can I Make and Store Dog Food? » Saturday November 14 2009Economics and Investing:Ben M. mentioned a recent Wall Street Journal article: World Tries to Buck Up Dollar B.B. sent us the link to a television segment with Peter Schiff, in which he suggested gold might rise to $5,000 per ounce. "There is not top [for gold], because there is no foreseeable bottom for the dollar." GG suggested this: China facing risk of debt-fueled crash Items from The Economatrix: Odds 'n Sods:« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Friday November 13 2009Economics and Investing:Reader O.J.W. spotted this: Why the price of gold is rising Ryan mentioned this: Report: 10 states face looming budget disasters Jason H. and "Oxy" were the first of dozen readers to mention this article: Peak Gold? Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out Items from The Economatrix: Fed Officials Warn Weak Recovery Won't Spur Jobs « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Why I Began to Prepare » Thursday November 12 2009Economics and Investing:FDIC Disowns Geithner Embarrassment. (Thanks to "Word" for the link.) Morris suggested an editorial about the coming collapse in commercial real estate by Doug Hornig of Casey Research: De Nile is not just a river in Egypt G.S. liked this: The gun that beat inflation; Commentary: How the Colt Peacemaker outshone gold. [JWR Adds: And you can't shoot a burglar with a Krugerrand. Well, maybe you could with a Wrist Rocket, but that would take some explaining, in court.] Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Maintaining OPSEC in a Geographically Extended Retreat Group » Wednesday November 11 2009Economics and Investing:Flaw in US Data Overstates Growth, Productivity. (Thanks to Garth for the link.) Jonathan H. sent this from The Wall Street Journal: Three Decades of Subsidized Risk K.T. sent this: CNBC - Dollar Will be Utterly Destroyed, Global Currency, New World Order Bobbie-Sue spotted this interview: Peter Schiff: The Government Chose Wrong. Here comes inflation! Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Maintaining OPSEC in a Geographically Extended Retreat Group » Tuesday November 10 2009Economics and Investing:Raymond sent this New York Times piece: Inside The Global Frenzy For Gold "Oxy" liked this article: The Next Big Bubble? Items from The Economatrix: AIG Taps Another $2.1 Billion from US for ILFC Share Purchase « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Monday November 9 2009Economics and Investing:Reader Chad S. sent this: No risk of hyperinflation, says Bernanke. (I feel so much safer now, knowing that he's grounding the helicopters.) Also from Chad: The Truth about Hyperinflation and Price Controls. Items from The Economatrix: Ahead of the Bell: Consumer Credit « Three Letters Re: How Much Food Storage is Biblically Justified? |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Sunday November 8 2009Letter Re: An Overwhelmed Newbie, Catching Up at Prepping
Mr. Rawles, I've already bought a food dehydrator and meat grinder both very inexpensively on Craigslist and a wheat grinder from Lehman's The other thing I've done (following your wife's guidance), is to buy two copies of Carla Emery's book [The Encyclopedia of Country Living]. I've dived into that book, head first. The Memsahib was right. What an amazing reference! Owning that book is like having a country aunt on "speed dial" that you can turn to, to ask just about any question about the old-fashion ways of doing things. Since we are members of both Sam's Club and Costco (discount memberships, through my husband's work, and my school district) we plan to buy most of our bulk foods at those places. So I'm getting a copy of your ["Rawles Gets You Ready"] prepping course. I'm sure that will fill in some gaps that Carla Emery didn't cover, like details on food shelf lives and modern food packaging. Most important, it is perfect for people like us that want to be able to stock up [on food storage], just [shopping] at supermarkets or the Big Box outlets like Sam's [Club] and Costco. OBTW, my husband devoured your novel. It kept him up 'til 3 A.M.! We are selling off our "fluff stuff" on eBay and Craigslist, to get cash for prepping. So far, we've sold my collectibles and some vintage clothes, our Bose sound system, my husband's stamp collection, and more than 200 music CDs, in batches of 10 to 15, [sorted] by genre. We dropped our dish television contract--no time for that sort of time-wasting and mind-numbing entertainment! Next will be selling our Nautique ski boat. Fishing will replace water skiing as our summer hobby, and we can do that from the shore or from kayaks or inflatables that will fit on our Excursion's roof rack. The side bonus is that selling the boat and trailer is that clears one whole section of our garage. That will surely be filled with prepping shelves, shortly. My husband has a source for used industrial-weight shelving and pallet racks for about the price of scrap metal. (They buy shelving from failed companies.) Thank You, Mr. Rawles, for extracting our heads from the sand. Semper Paratus and Semper Fidelis - Jessica and Ron, in the Non-Amish Part of Ohio (Wishing I lived in Kidron, next door to Lehman's!) « Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: How Much Food Storage is Biblically Justified? » Letter Re: When Does the Other Shoe Drop?
James: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: When Does the Other Shoe Drop? » Economics and Investing:KT sent the link to an absolutely hilarious British music video parody on YouTube: Bohemian Bankruptcy (Warning: There are a couple of crude moments, so this is not for the kids!) Reader Tom. L. sent this: London Officially Dethrones New York as World's Financial Capital Pat G. flagged this: Big California Bank Fails, Has Two Chinese Branches (Five more US bank failures were announced Friday) Items from The Economatrix: Commentary from Doug Casey: Why Gold Has a Long Way to Go Fed Keeps Interest Rates at Near-Zero Emergency Level « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Once a Prepper, Always a Prepper » Saturday November 7 2009Economics and Investing:Alex C. sent us this: Gold Jumps to Record Above $1,100 On U.S. Interest-Rate Outlook Get Ready for 14 Percent Unemployment. (Thanks to Bobbi-Sue for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: Gold Jumps to Record Above $1,100 On U.S. Interest-Rate Outlook Productivity Surge Signals Job Growth to Follow Jobless Rate Surpasses 10%, First Since 1983 « Letter Re: Book Recommendation: "Possum Living" |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Friday November 6 2009Letter Re: Preps and Minimizing My Debts Paid Off When UnemployedDear Mr. Rawles, It's been a year since I've been able to find work, and in the intervening time my wife and I have struggled to stay afloat both financially and physically as my wife has Multiple Sclerosis. Thanks to what I had learned from your blog and Patriots, we've made it. When my wife and I were married two and a half years ago I made sure we paid off debt, were smart enough to skip buying an overpriced house, and built up our food stores. Thanks to you when I watched over the past year the price of homes crash and energy skyrocket we were relatively secure in our apartment debt free and chopping up all the deadfall I could find out in the state owned land behind us to burn in our fireplace. I must have saved a thousand dollars last winter heating with wood and more importantly got myself into shape. Once again thanks to you when inflation hit food prices I dug into our larder to get us past the rise in prices. And thanks to you for getting me to take an interest in emergency medicine because I've been able to keep my wife stable during health scares a couple times now as we waited for the emts to arrive. We made it through the rough times, thanks to you and the survivalist community. Today my wife is healthy, our persons secure, and my family while not rich will begin to prosper again. I've found a new job, I enlisted in the US Air Force and am shipping out in two weeks. I'll miss all the holidays this year but I'll know my family is celebrating safe and in peace. Next to good planning, the most important lesson I've learned is to never quit. So through all your trials Mr. Rawles, I hope you can take heart knowing that you and the Memsahib have touched lives from afar for the better. Sincerely, - Brent S. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: How to Capitalize on Urine, Car Batteries, Wood Ashes, Bones and Bird Schumer » Economics and Investing:Regular contributor GG flagged this piece from Zero Hedge: Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year M.M. in Utah suggested this piece by Eric Sprott and David Franklin in Markets at a Glance: Dead Government Walking Karen H. sent this: Profit 'Not Satanic," Barclays Says Also from Karen H.: ADP says U.S. Companies Cut an Estimated 203,000 Jobs in October Items from The Economatrix: Gold Extends Record High on India Purchase « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Thursday November 5 2009Economics and Investing:SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson pointed us to some commentary by Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal that sheds some light on attitudes about the current recession: We're Governed by Callous Children. GG flagged this: Junk bond revival stokes credit bubble fears GG also sent us this troubling piece, from England: More quantitative easing is on the way – and that's a good thing. The UK government considers debt monetization a good thing? Watch out! Items from The Economatrix: Oil Hovers Near $78 on Positive US Economic News « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Archiving How-To Videos From YouTube » Wednesday November 4 2009Economics and Investing:SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson sent this: Number of Utah jobs created by federal stimulus 'inflated' GG was the first of several readers to mention a recent piece by economist Nouriel Roubini: Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust Damon S. sent us this bit of gloomage: Small-Business Bankruptcy Filings Up 44% Year-over-year, Equifax Data Shows Items from The Economatrix: US Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture. Here is a quote from the article: "While most mainstream economists such as Nouriel Roubini are warning of deflationary threats to the U.S. economy, it is our belief that massive price inflation has already begun. The Federal Reserve's policy of massive monetary inflation in 2009 has caused the Dow Jones to bounce over 50% from its low, oil to rise 100% from its low, and gold to surge to a new all time nominal high. One NIA co-founder just saw his health insurance premium rise 16% over a year ago; and the average tuition for a four-year public college increased this year by 6.5%." « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Some Advise of Starting Wood and Charcoal Fires » Tuesday November 3 2009Economics and Investing:HPD sent us this piece by Mish Shedlock: A Remarkable Comparison: Affordable Student Loans vs. Affordable Housing Mr. Smith recommended this BBC audio clip: Fed Advisor Warns of the Next Financial Crisis: Mass Inflation Chad S. flagged this: Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis GG sent this: CIT Board Approves Chapter 11 Filing; Government Infusion of $2.3 Billion at Risk Items from The Economatrix: The Next Currency to Crash: The Japanese Yen US Housing "Recovery" in Bubble Territory « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Monday November 2 2009Economics and Investing:Jeff E. suggested this: Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash "FarmerGreen" mentioned: Harvard’s Bet on Interest Rate Rise Cost $500 Million to Exit. Even the best and brightest at Harvard lost a billion to get out of a derivatives contract that went south. Bruiser spotted this: California to Begin Holding More of Your Paycheck. Bruiser's comment: "The lesson here is that if one needs a loan, just go out and take it from everyone who has a job. Like Commifornia is doing." [JWR Adds: My favorite quote from the article: "The state is closing part of this year's budget deficit by taking an advance on next year's tax revenues. 'It's a one-time acceleration, or on-time speeding up if you will, of tax dollars that would otherwise be collected next fiscal year.' But the state wants to make clear that the change, which has no cutoff date, is not a tax." Yeah. right. (Only someone that graduated from a California public school would believe that Bravo Sierra.] Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Comments of Storing Coffee and Grinding Whole Wheat Flour » Sunday November 1 2009Economics and Investing:Chris in West Virginia was the first of several readers that mentioned Glenn Beck's recent explanation of inflation, interest rates, and the history of destroyed currencies. It was a basic primer for the sheeple. I just wish he had taken a couple of minutes to explain the money multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking. Ehh! Probably too complicated for many television viewers to grasp. The latest from Dr. Housing Bubble: Option ARMs Enter the Eye of the Hurricane: The $189 Billion Recast Problem Targeted Directly at the California Housing Market. Of $189 Billion in Securitized Option ARMs $109 Billion in California. Norfolk Southern Railroad's profit slides as traffic remains slow. Revenues fell across all of the railroad's business segments. (Thanks to Damon for the link.) GG noticed this piece by John Browne in The Asia Times: Inflation by Stealth Items from The Economatrix: Nine Banks Seized this Week, Total Up to 115. The fourth largest failure was California National Bank in Los Angeles Are Things Really Getting Better? New Home Sales Take Surprise Tumble $8,000 Home Credit Still in Play Critic says government spent $43,000 for each sale that occurred because of the program Investors Rush Back into Stocks as Economy Grows « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Comments of Storing Coffee and Grinding Whole Wheat Flour » Saturday October 31 2009Economics and Investing:The credit derivatives plot thickens: New York Fed’s Secret Choice to Pay for Swaps Hits Taxpayers. (Thanks to David V. for the link.) Russia delays sale of 50 tons of gold. (A hat tip to Trey for the link, by way of MineWeb.) GG sent this: Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson spotted this New York Times piece: Hard Work, No Pay. It includes this memorable quote: "I am not unemployable. I have a master’s of fine arts and spent two years in the Peace Corps." Mike's comment: "Er...I thought that was the definition of unemployable!" Ben L. liked this article: Gold Market Reaching The Breaking Point Items from The Economatrix: Gold to Rise to $2,000 Amid "Massive" Inflation, Superfund Says Paul Craig Roberts: Are You Ready for the Next Financial and Economic Crisis? "Evidence that the US is a failed state is piling up faster than I can record it. One conclusive hallmark of a failed state is that the crooks are inside the government, using government to protect and to advance their private interests." Goldie Sachs Defends Controversial Trading Practices Recession Declared Over But Job Losses Mounting Home Foreclosures Jump in Previously Untouched Cities Credit Card Hikes Raise Congresses' Blood Pressure « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: University of California Disaster Preparedness Videos » Friday October 30 2009Economics and Investing:Tom B. and "Word" both sent us this: Tax refugees staging escape from New York. Tom B. described as "voting with their feet." Julius suggested an amazing Summary of US Foreclosure Activity. Wow! One in every 23 homes in Nevada is in foreclosure! An interesting piece over at Housing Storm: Contradictions and Symptoms of the Great Depression Items from The Economatrix: GM Seen Posting Sales Again « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Open Enrollment for Many Medical Savings Plans » Thursday October 29 2009Economics and Investing:Treasury Sales Loom, but Demand Is There. $123 Billion Worth in One Week! Not to worry, they can always make it look like they all sold to non-puppet buyers. (Thanks to loyal content contributor GG for the link.) Brad C. found this Business Week article interesting: The U.S. Metros Least Touched by Recession. Brad's comment: Note that none of the cities in the top ten are on the East or West Coast, and that they are all in "Fly Over" country. Once again, free states lead the way. JWR Adds: Also note the correlation with my Recommended Retreat Areas page. Our Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson suggested this piece posted over at Zero Hedge: The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Cycle??? The sheer volume of bank derivatives now in play is staggering! Items from The Economatrix: Global Exposure in Derivatives in Excess of One Quadrillion Dollars « Letter Re: Protein Powders as Emergency Survival Foods |Main| Note from JWR: » Wednesday October 28 2009Precious Metals in Context: Prudence, Moderation and Balance, by Gentleman Jim from Colorado
As I read the occasional letters and articles on SurvivalBlog about storing/using precious metals (PMs) during a TEOTWAWKI of whatever sort, I must conclude that every single writer is absolutely correct--and yet also mostly wrong. You might ask: How can everyone be right and wrong, simultaneously? It's because most preppers seem to anticipate and plan fairly narrowly for the use of PMs. IMHO, if you're taking such a narrow lane down the preparation highway, you're not thinking big enough. Any situation following a currency collapse will be complicated by varying degrees of social disorder, economic breakdown, extreme paranoia among the population, (hopefully) temporary increases of theft and violence, etc., and thus will follow certain micro-unpredictable, yet macro-predictable, patterns. Saying it in a less scientific way, it is nearly certain that "big-picture," long-term trends for currencies in crisis, and especially the consequences of certain governmental actions, are extremely predictable. There have been more than 500 currency collapses in modern history (most recently in Zimbabwe, that I'm aware of, and seemingly ongoing for the US Dollar). Thus, economists and financial gurus can predict with fairly good accuracy what patterns will emerge during any currency crisis--whether it something as simple as hyper-inflation, devaluation or the wholesale destruction of a nation (and thus its currency). That makes such events macro (big-picture)-predictable. Similarly, centuries-tested stores of value like gold and silver are almost certain to hold their relative value through almost anything crisis. Will gold and silver prices go up and down? Will governments make them difficult, illegal or even dangerous to one's health to hold them? Sure; but look at this way: if gold and silver were good enough for the Phoenicians to trade in; for many Jews to use to escape Hitler; for Marco Polo to use in his travels; for ancient, medieval and modern rulers to bribe the guards and spies of opposing rulers; for royal families to use to pay the ransoms of hostage family members; for Alexander the Great to exact in tribute from besieged cities; and for defeated Nazis to spirit away to safe havens after WWII. So it is a good bet that they'll be just as useful in any future scenario you can imagine. I could be wrong, but you shouldn't bet against that over the long haul. Yes, a number of negative trends (take your pick: currency failure, government failure, world trade imbalances, food shortages, major droughts, out-of-control crime, oil shortages, nuclear terrorism, pandemic diseases, revolutions, major wars, civil wars, etc., etc.) could in theory climax simultaneously, causing gold or silver to be un-tradable for short, perhaps even moderately-extended, periods. (Note: I did not say "value-less." Just un-tradable. Folks will hunker down and drive off potential threats, and food, water and ammo will be the needs in the now. Over any period of more than a few months, though, society will demand a currency to enhance and ease barter, trade and commerce. Yes, there may be short transition periods when precious metals will be temporarily under or even un-valued by some people, in some regions. But survivors must be pragmatic and flexible when they're hungry or in danger. Since nearly all Americans have at least some gold or silver jewelry, it seems likely the mental transition to gold or silver-based barter or currency wouldn't be difficult for most. Look at this way: When we travel overseas, the local currency (be it the Euro, the dollar, the Real, the Yen, the Renminbi, the Hutsi-Tutsi or whatever) always confuses us for a few days, until we get a feel for what it buys in real, local terms. Mentally converting from our "home" currency adds additional confusion, but usually not for long. Don't you and nearly all other foreign travelers very quickly overcome confusions over the local currency? Within a few days, we're bargaining at the bazaar or market and have a very good handle on what something is worth, and whether we're getting charged "gringo prices." Surely a transition away from the dollar and into silver or gold, in whatever form, can't be too much tougher than adapting to foreign currencies, when the need arises. You shouldn't bet your (and your loved ones') survival on a single commodity for future barter purposes, whether that be gold, silver, wheat, rye, 9mm, .223, lead, water, gunpowder, canned meat, spices, guns or whatever. IMHO, a reasonably proportional stash of precious metals in multiple forms increases flexibility, reduces overall risk levels and markedly improves your odds. Quite honestly, there is no single precious metals solution for every situation and need. Gold is too valuable for most day-to-day situations; silver can be too low in value for some needs. Why have only a few dozen Silver Eagles, when you can balance your preps and expand your flexibility by also owning a couple of Gold Eagles, maybe some Maple Leafs, and a good stash of 90% silver pre-1965 U.S. coins? And, why not a few reasonably-sized silver or gold bars or ingots, if that is in your budget and makes sense for your situation? You should tailor and balance your holdings to fit your budget, region, lifestyle, perceived risks and survival strategy. * If you anticipate a "drop everything" evacuation, you'll be leaving behind most of your heavy silver bullion bars, and your stored items in general, due to weight limitations. So, either don't buy them, or bury them some of your stores in locations you can retrieve from later, or be prepared to hide them quickly in some other way. Just as you plan for redundancy and back-up solutions in other areas of preparedness, you should apply it to your precious metals caches. There's a reason you have both power tools and hand tools; several varieties of rifles, if possible; specific handguns for specific purposes (your concealed-carry pistol probably is not your open-carry pistol); and spare parts for just about everything. Most would agree it is wise to have a multi-fuel generator and solar power and some micro-hydro power too. You prepare a defensible retreat, but also also pack bug-out bags just in case, right? Many of us have both gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, if we can afford it. So why wouldn't the same logic apply to your gold and silver stores? With many different "tools" in your PM toolkit, you can pick the right "tool" for whatever situation you encounter. Now, back to Micro and Macro: While most of us may encounter micro-situations where precious metals hold little immediate value--in the macro sense, those situations will be relatively rare. Indeed, the odds are much in favor of gold and silver retaining important value in any emergency situation. If the ancient Romans, Greeks, Egyptians, Spanish Empire and many other civilizations over millennia have valued silver and gold so highly--why would you want to bet against it for the day after tomorrow? Next month? Next year? To me, the odds clearly lay with gold and silver. Yes, I still have appropriate firearms and ammo, and some reloading equipment, too. I'm just not going to bet everything on firearms and ammo, in isolation. Just like I'm not betting everything on having only food storage. The common-sense rules of prudence, moderation and balance dictate otherwise. In short, never put all of your preparedness eggs in any single basket. For most of us, that means we should pursue a balanced and reasonable cache of silver and/or gold, in multiple forms, for multiple potential uses, along with our other balanced and reasonable preps. Blessings to all, - Gentleman Jim from Colorado « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Perspectives on Roughing It and Covert Car Camping » Tuesday October 27 2009Economics and Investing:Barry Ritholtz sets the record straight, (by way of a link at The Automatic Earth blog): Existing Home Sales FALL in September 2009. FG sent this: Detroit house auction flops for urban wasteland Jim Rogers Interview: Long Sugar, But Getting Short Bonds (Thanks to GG for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: Derivatives Bill Amended to Let Big Banks Keep Some Contracts Secret Unemployment Getting Much Worse in 43 States Jim Willie: Attack By Central Bank Lilliputians « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: Using Direction Finding on Looter Bands » Monday October 26 2009Letter Re: Open Enrollment for Many U.S. Medical Savings Plans
Hi James, My prayer for you and your family is that you have happy memories without pain in the shortest amount of time possible. - D. JWR Replies: Thanks for that suggestion. One proviso for readers: Be sure to to mark your calendar for a date two weeks in advance of the spending deadline! « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Reader B.B. sent us the link to this "must hear" audio clip: Peter Schiff issues a Red Alert: "Get out of the US dollar". Schiff warns: "This is what the Weimar Republic did, and we are going to have the same result." Flavio liked this video clip of an an interview with Steve Forbes and Thomas E. Woods: Is Capitalism the Cause or the Solution to the Financial Crisis? This 28-minute video is well worth watching. GG suggested a piece by Carnegie Mellon University professor Allan Meltzer in the Wall Street Journal: The United States is headed toward a new financial crisis. Also from GG: Go for Gold: If the Fed Keeps Printing, the Dollar Will Keep Falling Karen H. flagged this item: Goldman Sachs Still Paid for Swaps on Redeemed Bonds Items from The Economatrix: US Jobless Claims Climb More than Projected Seven Months After Stimulus 49 of 50 States Have Lost Jobs « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Portable, Minimal Prep. Emergency Foods » Sunday October 25 2009Economics and Investing:Reader HPD mentioned this ominous news over at The Market Ticker: Possible Credit Dislocation: Be Warned From The Daily Bell: Dark pool trade limits to be reduced 95% in SEC plan Laura H. sent this: Democrats seek cover to boost debt limit Klaus sent this: China’s ‘Growth on Steroids’ Raises Danger of Renewed Slowdown [and Inflation!] Items from The Economatrix: Sept. Home Sales Rise 9.4%, Beat Forecasts « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Preparations for Eyesight & Hearing » Saturday October 24 2009Economics and Investing:Reader Troy W. spotted this: Guess What: The Next Housing Bubble is Already Underway Mr. W. sent this: A List of the Next Banks to Fail The Daily Bell asks: Derivatives don't need regulation? Jeff B. sent us this: Worldwide Diesel Glut Could Slam Oil Prices. [JWR's comment: Wait a few weeks before you refill your retreat's fuel tanks! The recent 18 cent jump in the price of diesel is sure to see a correction.] Items from The Economatrix: Friday Follies: Failed Bank Tally for Aught Nine Now at 101 Galleon Group to Shut Down Hedge Funds « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Lessons Learned from Hurricanes Ike, Rita, and Katrina » Friday October 23 2009Economics and Investing:Regular content contributor GG sent us a link to this press release: Adam Storch Named Managing Executive of SEC’s Enforcement Division. "Unbelievable! The Securities & Exchange Commission last week appointed a 29-year old Goldman Sachs executive as the managing executive of its enforcement division. You already know about all the curious contacts Goldman's leader Lloyd Blankfein has had with Treasury heads Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner. So I assume the SEC must also be aware of these contacts. While I have no reason to question Mr. Storch's ethics or motives in taking this job that presumably pays a fraction of his Goldman salary, not to mention bonus, isn't the SEC even a little concerned about its already soiled reputation?" Yea, the great MOAB doth grow mightily, as hath been presaged in the blog of doom: Obama to announce help for small banks, businesses. "Wow, free money for everyone!" (Kudos to GG for the link.) Bank of America to start charging customers for not using credit cards. Latest bank fee is for paying off credit card on time every month. (This news was mentioned to me by both GG and by Mike Williamson.) Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Thursday October 22 2009Economics and Investing:
Charles Hugh' Smith's assessment: Why We’ll See Stimulus 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 (and so on), until The Great Implosion Reader Aaron C. suggested: 20 reasons America has lost its soul and collapse is inevitable K.T. sent this video link: The Goldman Sachs Profitability Magic Trick. After some travel, Peter Schiff is back to videoblogging. Items from The Economatrix: 40% of Working-Age Californians Jobless « Letter Re: Wood Stove Selection, Operation, and Safety |Main| Three Letters Re: Storing Food in Commercial Storage Spaces? » Wednesday October 21 2009Letter Re: Should I Rent, or Should I Buy Property?
Sir; JWR Replies: We are definitely in a renter's market. I recommend buying only if the seller will accept a deeply-discounted offer. I must mention a third approach that I recommend to my consulting clients for times like these, with declining house and land prices and an uncertainty of a turn-around within 10 years: Find a place that you really would like to buy as a retreat, and lease it, with a contracted option to buy. (A "purchase option" contract, commonly called "buying an option.".) That way, if the market tanks, you can walk away, and you will be just out the lease money. Alternatively, you could re-negotiate a purchase price. And if the market stays steady in rural areas (a possibility) or if you are still occupying the property when double digit inflation kicks in, then you can go ahead and exercise the purchase option, with all of the the lease money paid applied to the purchase price. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Wood Stove Selection, Operation, and Safety » Economics and Investing:Reader Steven H. wrote to mention: VP Biden puts on his Captain Obvious cape and declares "This is a depression". Of course, Joe Biden has developed quite a track record for the inability to keep his mouth shut--most notably when he revealed the "secret" nuclear blast bunker beneath the VP's Residence. Ralph N. suggested this piece over at Volokh about how the FedGov conceals some of its debt: Treasury Inc.: The Shadow National Debt. (It is hidden under a TARP, dontcha know...) Commentary from analyst Niall Ferguson: The Dollar Is Dying a Slow Death. From the Housing Storm blog: Strategic Foreclosure And The Last Man On The Boat Also by way of Housing Storm: Subprime Mortgage Myths Debunked Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Storing Food in Commercial Storage Spaces? » Tuesday October 20 2009Economics and Investing:New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg: U.S. could be on path to a 'banana republic' situation. (Thanks to Tom B. for the link.) Reader MP sent this piece in Business Week: What happens if the dollar crashes? MP also sent this from The Motley Fool: The recession's second wave, subtitled "Green shoots? Sure, but there is actually little evidence of a solid recovery" GG flagged this: FDIC bank fund in the red until 2012. Tom R. suggested this piece: Intractability of Financial Derivatives Items from The Economatrix: Weiss: Bernanke Gone Berserk! Bank Reserves Explode! "Martin here with the most shocking new numbers I've seen in my lifetime. My conclusion: Fed Chairman Bernanke has dumped so much funny money into the U.S. banking system and has done so little to manage how that money is used, the fate of our entire economy has now been cast under a dark shadow of doubt. This is not conjecture or exaggeration. Nor are the underlying facts subject to debate. They are blatant, unambiguous, and fully supported by the Fed's own data ..." « Two Letters Re: Preparations for Eyesight & Hearing |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Monday October 19 2009Twenty-Two Reasons Why this Recession is Different and Why it Will EndureI
find it surprising that I'm now getting inquiries from readers, asking if "we've reached bottom" in the current economic recession, and asking if the time has come to start buying stocks or residential real estate. It seems that the talking heads of mainstream media are using some sort of voodoo. How can anyone think that we've hit bottom, and an economic recovery is in progress? To dispel the myths from the CNBC Cheering Section, please consider the following. (And note that I've provided references for each assertion, just so you know that I'm not talking out of my
Back in the Fall of 2008, I started hearing from consulting clients with notes of fear in their voices. They realized that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they could not properly isolate and articulate the problem. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that they sensed is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate. America will continue in recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But the recession that began in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone. The Federal governments's debt, just by itself is cause for concern. As an old gunsmithing friend mine, the late Chuck Brumley, was fond of saying: “If your outgo exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall." Several decades of profligate spending by the US Congress are finally starting to take their toll. Just because their friend Helicopter Ben has a high-speed printing press does mean that they can continue to spend money like drunken sailors in definitely. (On second thought, I should apologize for impugning the reputation of drunken sailors. They are actually much more conservative with their funds than congressmen.) Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures. Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.) The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse. "Big Picture" Implications As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend long, and effectively use debt compounded upon debt. Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDSes). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so most derivatives contract holders are only just now experiencing their first major recession. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not yet experienced a full scale "blow up" of derivatives, but I predict that if and when it happens, it will be spectacular. The pinch in CDSes (a form of derivative contract) in 2008 was just a faint foreshadowing of what we'd experience in a a full-blown derivatives collapse. The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on the street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse in the summer of 2008, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama. The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even governments will go under as this tumult plays out. (Take note of the recent vote of no confidence in Latvia.) The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late 1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will inevitably result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.) Mitigating the Risks Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends and /or relatives that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.) Since additional large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business. In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Karen H. kindly sent us the following items: Bank of America Posts Third-Quarter Loss on Defaults. "The idea that the financial crisis is over is a fantasy and it looks like the numbers bear that out," GE Profit Falls 45% as Revenue Trails Estimated Buyers Suing Trump in Miami Condo Glut as Values Return to 1989 "There’s no recession in the real estate litigation community,” Focus growing on keeping the jobless in their homes. A Perfect storm's brewing to cool petroleum demand. Items from The Economatrix: Workers Still on Job, But Making Half as Much « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Preparations for Eyesight and Hearing » Sunday October 18 2009Economics and Investing:Ex-Cop Loses Bank as Dutch Critic Spurs Withdrawals. (A tip of the hat to Karen H. for the link.) Jonathan H. flagged this: DOW 10,000!!!! Oh Wait, Make That 7,537. Jonathan's comment: Due to reduced buying power, the current DJIA at 10,000 is equivalent to only 75% of when the DJIA went through 10,000 a decade ago. Additionally,back then $10,000 would have bought 30 ounces of gold; now its only 10 ounces. Items from The Economatrix: California Bank Becomes 99th Closure « Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Perspectives on Roughing It and Covert Car Camping » Saturday October 17 2009Two Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor
Dear Editor: Dear Jim and Family, « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor » Economics and Investing:
Dollar hit on Fed’s signal of low rates. Meeting minutes show Fed has strong lean to more debt monetization. (Thanks to GG for the link.) Brian H. sent us a link to a piece in Zero Hedge. that quotes Money magazine: "Now 5 institutions hold 97% of the notional value [face amount] and 88% of the market value in derivatives, and they are all basically in the same business and all basically hedge with each other. It is not a true hedge when the other side can't pay, and history has clearly proven how easy it is for the other side not to be able to pay." [JWR Adds: That is the very definition of derivatives counterparty risk.] Brian's comment: "I would add that the risk isn't just concentrated in these "Too Big To Fail" Five. The risks are clearly placed on the backs of the taxpayer, either through Federal Reserve inflation or direct confiscation of taxes passing through to the banks." Items from The Economatrix: Why the Housing Rescue Hasn't Prevented Record Foreclosures « Economics and Investing: |Main| From Michael Z. Williamson: M4 Carbine Failures in Afghanistan Likely Due to High Rate of Fire » Friday October 16 2009Three Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor
James Wesley, The more important point of dollar-denominated oil contracts is dollar prestige. Documents from the Federal Reserve show that Arthur Burns not only was interfering with the gold markets three decades ago, but the level of cloak-and-dagger efforts to keep the dollar as the world's reserve currency for political power. Dollar-denominated oil contracts purposes are to preserve hegemony, not prop up foreign central banks' currency reserve. Godspeed, - Brian in Wisconsin Sir: Jim « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Three Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor » Economics and Investing:Karen H. mentioned this sobering piece, also subsequently sent in by several other readers: Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time' The latest from Dr. Housing Bubble: A Comprehensive Look at the Southern California Housing Market: 60,000 Properties Listed on the MLS but over 100,000 in Shadow Inventory. California and Nationwide Median Home Price Trends since 1968. Say Good-Bye to Option ARMs. Also from Karen: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve IRS Intensifies Global Hunt for Secret Offshore Bank Accounts Desperate Dollar Heading to the Basement. (BTW, they concur with my comments on the USDI's crucial support level: 72.) Items from The Economatrix: Dow Passes 10,000 For First Time In A Year. There's another sheep to be shorn every minute... « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: Preparations for Eyesight and Hearing » Thursday October 15 2009Two Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor
In response to InyoKern's letter: The title of this discussion thread and the original text that went with it could just as well have been written by any of the well-scripted talking heads on mainstream F-TV (financial television). My initial inclination is to be diplomatic, but considering the exceptional economic times we are currently witnessing, I say, "Balderdash!" I could reasonably conclude that the majority of the readers of "Survivalblog" are more apt to follow unconventional economic sages such as Jim Sinclair, Jim Willie, Jim Rogers, Bob Chapman, or Peter Schiff as opposed to the well-orchestrated financial propaganda of CNBC, MSNBC, CNN, "FAUX" News, or any of the formerly-relevant "major" networks that spin financial news in the adoring spirit of the CIA's "Operation Mockingbird" that originated in the 1950s. As such, these "enlightened" readers will know that the fiat U.S. dollar is doomed along with its unconstitutional facilitator, the Federal Reserve - which, as the saying goes, "is as 'Federal' as FedEx". Coincidentally, Rep. Ron Paul's bill to audit the Fed has reportedly garnered 300 co-sponsors in the House of Representatives. The Federal Reserve's days are numbered and it too will go the way of the "Edsel" along with its monopoly-money-clone, the U.S. dollar. The recent clues to the dollar's demise - sooner rather than later - are so numerous and widespread that one would have to be locked in solitary confinement in a maximum security prison to be oblivious to them. The dollar has dropped from 89.49 to under 76 on the USDX within the last 12 months; gold is at record nominal highs in the $1,060 range; China is dumping dollars for tangible commodities at an alarming pace; Countries are making deals to trade goods and services to avoid utilizing dollars in their international transactions; The dollar is the international "carry trade" currency of choice now which is very dollar negative; The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) and the U.S.-based COMEX are both in immediate danger of technical default due to lack of physical metals inventory for settlement of contracts that demand physical bullion; the Federal Reserve is monetizing U.S. Treasury debt sales via printing currency out of thin air to purchase foreign central banks' agency bonds to enable those foreign central banks to use the proceeds to purchase Treasuries...and on and on and on. The readers who have known nothing but the strength and security of the U.S. dollar for their entire lives and cannot accept the fact that a currency change of epic proportions is coming will have a rude awakening in the form of a lowered standard of living and reduced purchasing power - especially those on fixed incomes. The fact that we are talking about the death of a world reserve currency makes the problem exponential in nature. The days of the world's workers laboring all day for "a song and a dance" so that spoiled Americans can have access to cheap goods financed by the savings of the world are coming to a rapid and bone-jarring end. We have squandered our wealth and the creditors are lining up for the yard sale - and they're bringing our increasingly-worthless dollars with them to buy up our infrastructure. Got gold? (or silver?, or platinum?, etc.) The answer to those questions may well determine how you answer the question, "Got milk?", in the future. Signed, - RB
His analysis below seems really off-base to me: "And the Japanese, the other big holder of Dollars? We feed Japan with our rice, our Kobe beef (a special breed of cattle raised here in California and shipped across the ocean), and they buy our bonds because the national bank system of Japan is less than effective. Japan is also occupied by US bases since Japan is unable, legally, to more than defend itself within its own borders. Threats by North Korea means we, as their allies, are their defense abroad from a real and determined foe. A hundred million Japanese can't afford to dump the Dollar." For one thing, an aging Japan is going to need to sell dollars to pay for pensions and medical care. For another, saying that the Japanese buy American bonds because the US banking system is in better shape is dubious. The Japanese have been in a "marriage" with the US, and that's why they are forced to buy American beef, even though there is strong resentment about not buying from a country where they test for diseases better, such as Australia. The trouble is that the husband has had a secret gambling habit, and was actually laid off from his good job a few years ago and has been working part-time and living off credit cards. The wife just found out, and she's letting the neighbors in Korea and China know some of the dirty laundry. Regards, - P.L. JWR Replies: I agree that InyoKern is overly optimistic, but part of his premise is valid. In essence, the problem with US Dollars is that there are too many of them in circulation. And the problem for foreign holders of US Dollars is that they are holding too many of them, all at once. They cannot dump dollars rapidly, or the value of the dollar will collapse overnight, leaving them with nothing but kindling. (Or the electronic equivalent thereof.) Wise investors have been quietly getting out of dollars and into tangible commodities for several years. I expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. Interest rate inequities will perpetuate a Dollar Carry Trade that will be an even bigger market than the Yen Carry Trade that has been played successfully by currency speculators for the past two decades. In the final analysis, yes, the US Dollar is doomed. Protect yourself by minimizing your dollar-denominated investments, and parlay the proceeds into useful tangibles like silver, gold, productive farm or ranch land, guns, and ammunition. The timing of the dollar's decline and eventual collapse is very difficult to predict. But it is better to be a year early than a day late. Get out of your Dollar-denominated investments! « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:GG sent us this New York Post article: Dollar loses reserve status to yen & euro Fed's Bullard warns on inflation, unemployment. (Thanks to GG for the link.) Value of UK farmland could double in five years. Jeff mentioned this piece at Zero Hedge: Why Did U.S. SDR Holdings Increase Five Fold in the Last Week of August? Items from The Economatrix: Weak Dollars, Strong Euro Combine to Create Eurozone Pain « Letter Re: Devotional Candles as an Emergency Source of Light and Heat |Main| Water, Water Everywhere?, by David in Israel » Wednesday October 14 2009Letter Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor
Dear Jim and Family, « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Karen H. sent this: Dollar Facing 'power shift Also from Karen: Stone Calls U.S. Economic Growth Outlook "Troublesome" in 2010 GG sent this: Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities Reader D.D. sent the link to a good piece by Bill Fleckenstein: Your dollars are just Monopoly money Items from The Economatrix: Gary North: The Fed's Schizophrenic Monetary Economist « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Making Your Own Maps for the Field » Tuesday October 13 2009Economics and Investing:Reader Brian S. sent this: Dutch DSB Bank Nationalized After Bank Run By Clients. "The Netherlands’ central bank said Monday it has taken control of DSB Bank NV after clients began a run amid fears the regional lender might collapse." Brian notes: "People can [presently] only take 250 Euro per day from their accounts." Icahn: Risk of Double Dip, Investor 'Bloodbath'. (Thanks to Flavio for the linkio.) A piece by Charles Hugh Smith posted over at Housing Storm: Deflation or Inflation: Who Cares? Analysis from Greg Fielding (also at Housing Storm): Did the FHA make bad loans with taxpayer money to prop up home prices? I found an an interesting video of a Jim Sinclair interview by David Williams in South Africa: Gold & Inflation. Sinclair predicts gold at $1,650 per ounce by January, 2011. (This was linked at the Total Investor blog.) Items from The Economatrix: California Budget Already in the Red 10 Weeks After its Passage. California unemployment hit 12.2% in August « Experience With Bicycle Commuting and Touring, Hammocks, and Stoves, by David in Israel |Main| Notes from JWR: » Monday October 12 2009What Recovery? Find Yourself a Recoveryless JobFor more than a month, the mainstream media has been yammering about an economic recovery. Chasing phantom "good number" statistics amidst an onslaught of otherwise bad economic and global credit market news, the Wall Street cheering section is desperately seeking some news that the current recession is coming to an end. They talk about "the recovery in progress"--almost a fait accompli. They have been so good at this that they have fooled some investors into putting their sidelined money back into the stock market. What a masterpiece of disingenuous grandstanding. But the sad truth is that there is no genuine recovery in progress. Perhaps there will be a minor economic boost, generated by the huge bailout spending, but the bottom line is that we are in the midst of a major recession. And unlike the recessions in the past 50 years, this one is not based on just market cycles, but rather caused by a systemic failure of the global credit market. So any attempts to re-inflate the bubble with new credit (based on artificially low interest rates and bailout "programs") are bound to be unsuccessful. This recession cum depression won't end until malinvestment is driven out of the system, and trust in a fully transparent system of credit that backs genuine, truly marked-to-market tangible assets is restored. America's debt bubble that emerged from over-inflated real estate is at the root of the current mess, just as it was in Japan in the 1980s. (In their case, it was commercial real estate, in parts of Tokyo.) The Japanese government has tried similar measures (mostly in the form of massive public works programs and artificially low interest rates) for 25 years, and they still haven't pulled out of their economic doldrums! But consider that our real estate bubble was much, much bigger, and that unlike Japan, we are a net-debtor nation. (Japan has traditionally been a fiscally-conservative nation of savers.) So how can we expect to do any better at "recovery" than they did? The Obama administration has two potential courses of action that it can implement--through Treasury Department action, in concert with the Federal Reserve banking cartel's open market committee--to attempt to emerge from the current mess. Neither of these are appetizing:
My suspicion is that the BHO administration will opt for the "weak dollar" route, since that will be the least painful of the two options. The sad news, however, is that ultimately neither option will solve the underlying problem, and hence the US economy is doomed to a deep 10+ year depression. During this period we will witness (and endure) massive unemployment, high crime, dislocation, rioting, repatriation restrictions, and substantially higher taxes. With these in mind, take the steps necessary to protect your family's safety, and your assets. The talking heads on the finance and investing shows would have you believe that an economic recovery, or at least a "jobless recovery", is just around the corner. Do not be deceived. If any of you reading this are still under the deceptive spell of the CNBC rah-rahs and believe that recovery could be underway, then just take a look at this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets, which I've previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog. As you can see, the oft-cited peak in subprime mortgage interest rate resets is now behind us, but the peaks in Alt-A, and Option Adjustable (aka "Option ARM") rate resets are still ahead of us. Thus, in actuality, the worst is not yet over. We are just in a lull between two tsunami waves. With the exception of a few newcomers, SurvivalBlog readers are already well-informed on the foregoing facts, so I won't belabor these points. Instead, I'll move on to some practical issues that will have some benefit to you. Lets talk about jobs, and to be more specific, your job. Even if you are currently employed somewhere in a "safe and secure" job, keep in mind that there are no absolutes. You could have a small town civil service jo, for example at a water treatment plant. But what if the city or county that you work for goes bankrupt? You could be laid off in a heartbeat. The phrase "under new management" often means firing you, and hiring the nephew or old pal of the new boss. The fictional character Sarah Conner said it best: "No one is ever safe." So hedge your bets. I recommend that you develop a second stream of income through self-employment. Typically this can be found in a moonlighting service job, or a home-based mail order business. I've often encouraged even my rural consulting clients to develop a second income stream. Why is this important? "Living off the land"-style self sufficiently is an admirable and commendable goal. But even if you are living truly "debt free", you will still have property taxes to pay. That means that you will need a recession/depression proof revenue stream in the event that you lose your primary job. One market segment that prospered in the Great Depression of the 1930s was repair businesses. Obviously, in hard economic times, people try to make do with what they have. So repair businesses are a natural. If it is some small appliance that you could repair that could be mailed from and back to the customer, so much the better. (That way you could have a nationwide business, rather than just a local one.) This might include: DVD player repair, laptop computer repair, and so forth. Its a Dirty Job, But Someone Has to Do It Some suggested employment possibilities: 1.) Mining and manufacturing processes that because of shipping expenses cannot be practicably be moved offshore. Coal mining is a good example. 2.) Service industry jobs that are essential and non-discretionary. Let me reduce this to a few key examples, so that you'll know what to avoid:
3.) Retail sales (face to face, or mail order) of crucial items. 4.) Retail sales (face to face, or mail order) of comfort items. In the midst of an economic depression, people will crave escape. Movie DVDs are a good example. 5.) Military service. Most people don't think of the armed forces as service industries, but that is essentially what they are, on a national scale. In the military you are sort of a security guard for the real Mall of America. Or think of it as a lead delivery service. My father was an Air Force instructor pilot, back in the days of T-33s. He summed up his service when he told me: "I was a glorified bus driver, burning up lots of Uncle Sam's jet fuel. I did a great job of defending miles and miles of cactus." Thirty years later, I served as an Army Intelligence officer. It was great fun at the time, but in essence, I was just a detective--or more precisely the manager of detectives--that worked for one of the world's biggest detective agencies. 6.) Repair work. Be Flexible and Proactive The coming years will be difficult ones, globally. If you are risk of a layoff, then hedge your bets by developing a second stream of income, now. And if you are laid off, do not hesitate. Do whatever it takes to find steady work, even if means moving, or taking a lower-paying job. Don't just wallow in self-pity and draw unemployment insurance. be proactive and do something! « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Three Letters Re: Heating With Wood » Economics and Investing:Mara spotted this: First Fannie and Freddie, Now the FHA? Mara's comment: "Every time I read about more bailout money for existing “customers” or new bailout money for new “customers,” I start to get woozy and lightheaded! Good thing I am sitting down when I read this stuff!" GG flagged this New York Times piece: Failures of Small Banks Grow, Straining F.D.I.C. (100th US bank failure thusfar for 2009.) Items from The Economatrix: The Great Recession: The Numbers Tell The Story « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Where to Store Food When There is No Simple Answer » Sunday October 11 2009Economics and Investing:The Other Chris sent the link to a New York Times piece: Foreclosures Mark Pace of Enduring U.S. Housing Crisis. Here are some key quotes: "Every 13 seconds in America, there is another foreclosure filing. That's the rhythm of a crisis that threatens to choke off hopes for a recovery in the U.S. housing market as it destroys hundreds of billions of dollars in property values a year." Reader Jim H. sent this link: U.S. states suffer "unbelievable" revenue shortages Items from The Economatrix: Whodunit? Sneak Attack on the US Dollar « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Documentary Examines a Terrorist Nuke Scenario » Saturday October 10 2009Economics and Investing:Reader KAF forwarded this: U.S. Budget Deficit Hit Record $1.4 Trillion in 2009 Illinois State Comptroller Dan Hynes Says State Finances A Mounting Crisis, Things Getting Worse. (Thanks to Jeff B. for the link.) Matt in Tennessee alerted us to this video clip from Gerald Celente: The Dollar is Finished. And, BTW, Peter Schiff agrees. He announced "The carry trade [in US Dollars] is on!" Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Friday October 9 2009Economics and Investing:Reader CP suggested a column piece by Malcolm Berko: Taking Stock. CP's comment: "While Berko runs an investment advice column, he's generally not a cheerleader for irrational exuberance. This response to a reader's question is an general indictment of the markets and those who might as well be donning grass skirts dancing on a beach to appease the financial gods." Commentary from Dan Denninger: Consumer Credit: Disaster, Down $12 billion Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Getting Self-Sufficient in Wyoming » Thursday October 8 2009Economics and Investing:Thanks to reader GWC for this: U.K. Faced ‘Bank Runs, Riots’ as RBS and HBOS Neared Collapse GG spotted this key data point: Hours worked plummets to all time low Thanks to Damon for this news item: Venezuela inflation estimated at 26%, annually. (Prices were up 2.5% in September. But don't worry. Comrade Hugo has a plan.) Mark G. found an interesting New York Times blog article: What Happened to Argentina? Items from The Economatrix: Australia Rate Hike Good Sign for World Economy « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Older Technology Radio Receivers » Wednesday October 7 2009Economics and Investing:GG was the first of more than a dozen readers to mention this article by Robert Fisk (an outspokenly leftist journal list, so take it with a grain of salt.): The demise of the dollar; In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading. Given the import of the preceding (if it is true), is it any wonder that the USDI is tanking, and the future and spot prices of precious metals are going through the roof? You've had plenty of warning and investment encouragement from your editor. Eight years worth, in fact. (I called the bottom, back in 2001.) Greg F. suggested this: Is The FDIC Killing Short Sales? Banks brace for Latvia's collapse; The Baltic states are once again in the eye of the storm after leaked reports that Sweden is bracing for a full-blown economic and political "breakdown" in Latvia. (Thanks to GG for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: Most Economically Stressed US States « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Tuesday October 6 2009Economics and Investing:From the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Three Westside Shadow Inventory Homes. Santa Monica, Culver City, and Rancho Park. Banks will not Hold Inventory Forever. John S. sent this: Bailout cop: Treasury set 'unrealistic expectations' Barofsky, reviewing the first big bailouts to 9 firms, concludes that the government was too rosy to the public about the banks' health. (Read: They fibbed.) Tom B. thought this might be of interest: Baker Hughes: US Oil, Gas Rig Count Up 7 To 1,024 This Week Damon mentioned: Is world economy still in deep woods? (The IMF announced that it plans to sell 8% of its gold reserves.) Items from The Economatrix: Ad Slump Leads Gourmet, Three Other Magazines to Close « Letter Re: Firearms Training -- Some Stress is a Good Thing |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Monday October 5 2009Letter Re: Where to Start in Survival Preparedness? Mr. Rawles, Option #1 - The Air Force pays large bonuses for certain career fields if you reenlist into that career field. I'm interested in one that will pay me a minimum $50,000 ($25.000 on signing, the rest spread out over the length of my reenlistment.) We talked about paying off one auto loan and our credit cards with the up-front $25,000. This would free up about $500/month which we would probably put towards our bigger auto loan. Since the first auto loan would be paid off, we can then sell that car and buy a less expensive '73-'86 Chevy/GMC Blazer or Suburban (gas). That would take care of survival vehicle #1. The other $25,000 over the following years would be used to pay down our other vehicle to where we can pay off or even break even so we can purchase survival vehicle #2---1994-1997 Dodge Ram 2500 4x4 5.9L Cummins diesel. If we go for this option, most if not all of our debt will be gone and we'll have about $1,000/month to spend on fortifying our equipment, supplies et cetera. The problem with this option is we won't be too prepared if something were to happen in the next 4-to-5 years or so. Option #2 - Let's assume that I still have the same bonus as listed above. I retire in eight years and would like to have a little piece of land to go to--TEOTWAWKI or not. We plan on 10+ acres somewhere in north central Idaho (Orofino/Pierce/Deary--that area). Well, I could take the $25,000 up front bonus and put it down on a piece of land. We don't plan on spending over $80,000, so we can figure on a payment of around $300-$600/month. Then, when I retire, I'll move the family up there and build a house with a mini-farm. Of course, if I went this route I would still have a lot of debt. Option #3 - Perhaps I should plan for more immediate needs. My family has little of the proper equipment/supplies that we would need. Shoot, we don't even have a Bug-Out Bag.. I've considered using that bonus money (or a portion) to build up in the equipment area and forego paying any additional to debt (after all, if TEOTWAWKI happens in the near future, debt will be the least of our problems). So, this is the dilemma that I am faced with. I know my end goal a (self sustaining mini-farm in Idaho, while still receiving a pension and being debt free). Getting there is the hard part. The costs of my current debt, state of provisions, buying land, building on the land, vehicles, alternative power for the retreat will probably cost anywhere from $200,000-$500,000 when it's all said and done. I think the smart choice is putting as much money as possible towards debt and getting that out of the way, but at the same time making small provisions for WTSHTF. Perhaps I've missed something? - Dan W. JWR Replies: For anyone that might be laid off, debt can be a real killer in the next few years. I still predict a at least another 18 months of deflation to be followed by sharp inflation. In deflationary times, having any debt load would be disastrous if income were interrupted due to a layoff. Granted, military service is a unique situation, but my general advice is to pay down debts, and avoid taking on any new debt. The situation in the immediate future will resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s, where cash was king, and the few people that had jobs fared well, but those that were unemployed suffered badly. So my advice is to take Option #1: Pay off one auto loan and your credit cards with the $25,000 re-up bonus. Not only will it remove the stress of potential loss of income, but it will eliminate interest payments, which are a non-productive drain on your resources. Then make your preparations gradually, using your expendable income, without incurring any new debt. If need be, downgrade one of your vehicles to an older model that won't require a car loan. That will free up even more cash each month. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Three Letters Re: Travel Security, by CapnRick in Argentina » Economics and Investing:Reader Eric S. spotted this: CIT debt swap could cost U.S. more than $1.8 billion By way of Market Oracle, Damon found these two links: News From 1930 and Zero Hedge discusses railroad carloading statistics. Items from The Economatrix: Jim Willie: Systemic Failure Approaches. "Numerous sustaining forces will contribute toward the inexorable path to systemic failure. It will begin with the relapse failure of the US banking system. Citigroup is facing real bankruptcy, whose numerous segments are underwater and growing worse. Bank of America is in a death spiral, whose CEO Ken Lewis departs amidst political and shareholder legal pressures. Wells Fargo is so dead that its true balance sheet makes a skeleton come to life, whose prime Option ARM and second mortgage exposure is monumental." « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Applying For a Non-Resident Concealed Carry Weapons Permit/License » Sunday October 4 2009Economics and Investing:World Bank could run out of money 'within 12 months'. (Thanks to Chris H. for the link.) Don W. flagged a New York Times piece: Too Rich to Worry? Not in This Downturn. JWR's comment: When even the uber-wealthy feel the pinch, then it is clear that this is not just a typical market cycle-triggered recession! Items from The Economatrix: Stocks Fall Following Disappointing Jobs Report « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Travel Security, by CapnRick in Argentina (Part 1 of 2) » Saturday October 3 2009Economics and Investing:Greg L. suggested this Housing Storm piece: Is it too early to declare mortgage modifications a complete failure? Reader HPD mentioned this commentary by Mish Shedlock: Collectively, Economists Are A Perpetually Optimistic Lot Ukraine's Naftogaz indicates default on bonds (Thanks to Danny S. for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: Wall Street Money Rains on Senate, Especially Schumer « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Friday October 2 2009Economics and Investing:Reader DLF spotted this: Detroit: Too broke to bury their dead Foreclosure Rate Rises 17 Percent. (Thanks to The Other Chris for the link.) A residential real estate shadow inventory case study. Items from The Economatrix: Manufacturing, Employment Pounds Stocks « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Crystal Radios » Thursday October 1 2009Economics and Investing:A Year Later, TARP Inspector General Barofsky Sees a 'Far More Dangerous' Financial Situation Officials: Fed will need to boost rates quickly. (Thanks to El Jefe Jeff E. for the link.) Bob G. sent the link to this Wall Street Journal piece: Plenty More Bank Losses Expected Globally; Additional $1.5 Trillion in Write-Downs Forecast by End of 2010 Account overdrawn: FDIC Fund Goes Negative. Although the US Treasury is the guarantor of last resort, it now won't take much to trigger bank runs. (A hat tip to K.T. for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Wednesday September 30 2009Economics and Investing:Reader GG spotted this sobering piece: Corpse of a Thousand Houses. More foreclosures will soon be flooding the market, further depressing the housing market. This is the negative feedback loop (aka "death spiral") that I've been warning about since late 2006. From El Jefe Jeff E.: US large-loan bank losses triple to $53 billion; Regulators say US lenders expected to lose $53 billion in 2009 on loans larger than $20M. Jeff's comment: "53 Billion is a lot to lose, and they were 'surprised' by the losses....I wonder what else is lurking that will cause these banks more surprises." Also from Jeff E.: Economists React: “A Surprising Decline” in Orders Reader Mike W. sent this advice from The Motley Fool on the US Dollar: Get Out Now! Items from The Economatrix: What's The Real Reason Banks Aren't Foreclosing? « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Crystal Radios » Tuesday September 29 2009Economics and Investing:From veteran blog content contributor GG: A $4 billion Postal Service bailout Also from GG: Ten reasons for an imminent stock market crash Reader mark S. flagged this: Another housing slump coming? Analysts say 7 million soon-to-be foreclosed properties have yet to hit the market. Items from The Economatrix: Simmons (Mattress) Plans to File for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Preparedness Information for Diabetics » Monday September 28 2009Economics and Investing:SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson sent a link to: Dollar under scrutiny at G20 summit Lost Vegas: Living Underground in Flood Tunnels. In Las Vegas, 1 in every 33 homes is in foreclosure. Where did all the people go? The answer might surprise some. There are an estimated 700 troglodytes live beneath Las Vegas.. Do they realize the mortal danger in the uncommon event of a flood? (A tip of the hat to David R. for the link.) From Jim D.: Social Security strained by early retirements. An ever bigger budget deficit! Items from The Economatrix: FDIC is Broke, Taxpayers at Risk House Passes Bill To Prevent Government Shutdown « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Sunday September 27 2009Economics and Investing:
From Paul D.: US faces Armageddon if China and Japan don't buy debt Investors gird for post-recession inflation HH latched on to this article: U.S. Debt Crisis May Cause ‘Fall of Rome’ Scenario, Duncan Says Items from The Economatrix: Fed Admits Hiding Gold Swap Arrangements « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Small Breed Dogs--Nature's Leatherman Tool, by B.C. » Saturday September 26 2009Economics and Investing:Can you spell monetization? Federal Reserve Accounts For 50% of Second Quarter Treasury Purchases (Thanks to GG for the link.) GG also flagged this piece in the Globe and Mail: Desperately seeking an exit strategy. (Roubini says debt monetization and inflation "the path of least resistance") J.O. suggested this piece by Peter Schiff: Lehman Brothers Revisited Items from The Economatrix: UK: Crude Price "Shock" Next Threat to Recovery « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Grub and Gear--Lessons Learned from an Alaskan Trapper, by Old Dog » Friday September 25 2009Economics and Investing:FG and Adam W. both flagged this: Homeowners who 'strategically default' on loans a growing problem. The article begins: "Who is more likely to walk away from a house and a mortgage -- a person with super-prime credit scores or someone with lower scores? Research using a massive sample of 24 million individual credit files has found that homeowners with high scores when they apply for a loan are 50% more likely to "strategically default" -- abruptly and intentionally pull the plug and abandon the mortgage -- compared with lower-scoring borrowers." El Jefe Jeff E. recommended this piece by famed economist Arthur Laffer, in The Wall Street Journal: Taxes, Depression, and Our Current Troubles. Jeff's comment: "Arthur Laffer makes interesting comparisons of today's monetary policy with that of the Great Depression. The Fed has increased money supply 100% in recent months. A tax increase may be the tipping point." GG recommended this piece by a Cato Institute fellow: The growing debt bomb Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Thursday September 24 2009Economics and Investing:From Karen H.: Trailing Indicators: Out of a Job, Some Decide to Take a Hike Don't Trip in Your Search for Higher Bond Yields Blaine sent this: Ten Big Companies Veering Towards Bankruptcy DD flagged a news item: FDIC considers borrowing cash from banks; Insurance fund that protects depositors is quickly running out of money Jim Jubak asks: Will US repeat mistakes of 1937? Items from The Economatrix: Reversal: FDIC May Need Bailout from Banks US to Push for New Economic World Order at G-20 « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: Chronic Troubles with PT/MMC Pistol Night Sights » Wednesday September 23 2009Three Letters Re: Will Junk Silver Be Accepted for Barter, Post-Collapse?
Jim: I just checked Dex Online for coin dealers in Dallas, Texas. Dex brought up 18 coin dealers. Dex also brought up 18 antiques and collectibles dealers (who always know the value of old coins.) I don't think there would be a problem converting pre-1965 "junk" silver coins into whatever new currency replaces the US dollar after the collapse. Nearly every town in the US with a population of 10,000 or more has at least one coin dealer. Every coin dealer knows the value of pre-1965 "junk" silver coins. So does every jeweler and every pawn shop (not recommended.) In my estimation it will take perhaps one week after the final collapse of the US dollar before people will be pawning their wedding bands and emptying out their kids' coin collections. It won't take long before everybody knows what still has value. Gold and silver have always kept their value since long before the Roman Empire. If anybody still thinks that pre-1965 90% silver coins will be difficult to use after the collapse of the US dollar, then I recommend buying a copy of A Guide Book of United States Coins 2009 by R. S. Yeoman. (It is often just referred to by its nickname, "The Red Book.") Every Barnes & Noble store sells these. In the mean time it would be a good idea to begin to equate the values of common good to an ounce of silver today. At $17/oz. one ounce of silver buys six gallons of gasoline in most parts of the US, for example. Figure this out for every necessity. Write it down on a legal pad for reference. Begin to educate your family and friends. Post-US dollar collapse their will be a mass re-education in the values of gold and silver - out of sheer necessity. Sir: Obviously, the more stuff you have to trade, the better, but silver should be among your stockpiles. - Brett
What I did not tell you at that time, was that the Romanians were widely using old silver coinage, much from the old Austro-Hungarian Empire days, as a regular means of paying for such things as food. Even though the Romanian Lei, nearly died out as a currency, in favor of the Deutsche Mark, US Dollar and British Pound, old silver coins were widely used! It didn't take long for folks to accept old Austro-Hungarian silver coins as a viable means of barter etc. While this was illegal, I never heard of any enforcement efforts being made by either the regular police, or the Romanian Securatate. Your assessment that pre-1965 90% silver coins will be widely used following the collapse of the fiat currencies is a sound prediction of what may yet come to pass. Initially, some may refuse to accept a silver quarter dollar as anything more than 25 worthless cents. But, it won't be long until everyone will gladly accept a real dollar (in silver coins) as the "real deal." « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Tamara (of the View From The Porch blog), linked to this by Les Jones: Three tales of inflation From DD: Retraining roulette: New skills, no new job Trent forwarded this video link: Bullish Today, Marc Faber is "Highly Confident" the Future Will Be Very Bleak Items from The Economatrix: Weiss: From Deflation to Inflation. This is a significant change, because up until just recently, Marty Weiss had for more than two decades been warning about deflation. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Grub and Gear--Lessons Learned from an Alaskan Trapper » Tuesday September 22 2009Economics and Investing:Unemployment in California at 12%, Highest in Nearly 70 Years GG flagged this: UK Public debt hits £800 billion - the highest on record Tom B. sent this item: Charts predict: "Risk of Full- Fledged Dollar Crisis" Items from The Economatrix: Obama: G-20 Good Time to Assess Economy « Letter Re: Storage Food Cookbooks |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Monday September 21 2009Letter Re: Will Junk Silver Be Accepted for Barter, Post-Collapse?
I have been reading your blog for quite some time now and I have a different outlook that I would like for you to comment on if you would be so kind. I have seen multiple references to pre-1965 coins being good for barter in a post-SHTF environment, but I do not follow this reasoning. I live in Dallas Texas, and frequently converse with other like minded people about survival preparation and the world climate and, until I told them about the high melt value of pre-1965 coins, they had no idea it was greater than the face value. It should not have struck me as odd as I myself had no idea of this before I began reading your blog. These are well informed people, so it made me wonder how common this knowledge was. I began asking various people about this, and not one person had any idea that these coins had a higher silver value than their face value. Here is my perspective on this subject. In a post SHTF environment some people will have prepared and some won't. However, regardless of this, when it comes time to trade with others the universal doctrines will apply. 1. You will have to have something that I want for me to trade you what you want. 2. A think worth what someone is willing to pay for it, not it's asking price. Now, if the vast majority of people have no idea that pre-1965 coins are almost the same as silver, most of them will likely have no desire for them at all, or worse, think that you are trying to scam them by pushing a trade with a currency which is likely defunct. Further, due to the probable lack of access to information, it is unlikely that people would be able to research the claim that these coins are worth more than their face value. Thereby keeping the populace at large ignorant of their true commodity value, and keeping the coins out of the trading markets. I believe that the only scenario in which pre-1965 coins could come to be regarded as a barter good would be if people that already knew of their value agreed to take them in as trade for something that the ignorant populace already believed had value, such as ammunition or food. Again, however, there is a very small percentage of the populace that has knowledge of the melt value of pre-1965 coins, much less has a stockpile of them to use after the SHTF. Therefore, I believe it to be unlikely that there would be enough people, in enough varied locations, willing to make a sufficient number of trades of their items for coins for the trend of pre-1965 coinage as a barter good to become ubiquitous in the "villages" or "trading posts". Due to these perspectives, I find it to be unlike that the new "villages" or "trading posts", that spring up out of the ashes of our previous society, will use pre-1965 coins as even an uncommon trading good. Most of the idea behind amassing coins for preparedness I believe to be tied to the value of silver, and the above illustrations assume that silver will be valued after the crash. However, after the crash I do not find it likely that silver will have any value at all for the the majority of the people. Very few people will be so well -prepared that they will have enough that they can concern themselves with amassing hard wealth for when society returns. I am certain that the majority will be trying to just survive as best they can. While there will be a Rolex or a diamond ring traded for a few tins of tuna, this will likely be an uncommon occurrence as society continues to devolve. Few people will have so much that they can trade away usable resources for hard value items in mass. While people may have the memory that silver used to be valuable, after having spent some time circling the drain with the rest of society, it is unlikely that they will have found a use for it since it can neither be used to defend nor feed one's self. It is more likely that a wealthy man will be one that has enough food, warmth, defense, and shelter to survive indefinitely. That only leave silver coins as an easily identifiable currency. So, let us suppose that there are places that have almost gotten back to some sense of civilizations, such as the "villages" or "trading posts". As such they will likely want to use some form of currency. However, as we look to the past to inform the future, it is more likely that each community, or group of communities, will develop their own individual currencies in an effort to avoid counterfeiting and theft. Historically, in the absence of a centralized government, individual communities do what they feel they must to survive and to insure that they function as smoothly as possible. This is likely to focus more on food and defence, items that provide life stability, than it is on amassing hard value items. In order for silver coins to have a value a person needs to want them from you more than they want to keep what you want from them. I can not see any functionally use for silver after the crash. I know that there are a great many very intelligent people that firmly believe that these coins will have a high value post SHTF, so I feel like I must be missing something. I would be most appreciative if you would share your views on the reasoning that I have outlined. I am very hesitant to invest in pre-1965 coins as a future barter good until I am convinced that it is a better investment than just using the same money to buy more food, guns, or ammunition. The ideal of having a compact, universal, and non-degrading barter good available when the time comes is very appealing, I'm just not sure that it is silver coins. - Russell from Dallas JWR Replies: I stand by my prediction that in the event of a currency collapse, pre-1965 junk silver will very quickly become adopted as a de facto barter currency. Many people may not presently be familiar with these coins, but once the US Dollar's value disintegrates, people will wise up to what constitutes real money, very rapidly. Adaptability is in the nature of free markets. It won't take more than a couple of months for prices to stabilize in the new reality of silver coins, packs of cigarettes, boxes of .22 cartridges, and gallons of gasoline--in barter. I predict that within a month, the sound of ringing silver coins will become familiar--starting first at "mom and pop" stores and at farmer's markets. These coins will be eagerly sought in barter, because they encapsulate all of the key attributes of a genuine tangible currency: recognizability, scarcity, durability, portability, fungibility, and divisibility. Being 90% silver, they also have useful industrial value. No barter currency is perfect, but pre-1965 coins come very close, at least for use here in the United States. « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Economics and Investing:Greg sent us this: FDIC Considers Borrowing From Treasury to Shore Up Deposit Insurance Chaz liked this one: The U.S. Balance Sheet: Households See Net Worth Down by $12 Trillion Since Peak and Total Debt Floating in the Market of $33 Trillion Items from The Economatrix: Housing, Jobless Data Point to a Slow Economic Recovery Odds 'n Sods:Federal Judge Rules Police Cannot Detain People for Openly Carrying Guns -- Includes nationwide map linking to open carry laws for each state. (Thanks to Cheryl for the link.) Food Stamp List Soars Past 35 Million: USDA o o o o o o « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Squeezing Efficiency Out of Every Second of Your Workday to Provide Quality Relaxation Time, by KAF » Sunday September 20 2009Economics and Investing:"Option" mortgages to explode, officials warn. (This is not a news flash for SurvivalBlog readers--I first warned you about this in March of '07, and several times since.) A picture is worth a thousand words. BTW, I have found that this chart link is very useful to send to any deluded relatives who have bought into the lie that the real estate market has "bottomed" and that are planning to buy back into the market. US residential real estate is presently a playground for idiotic contrapreneurs. The very earliest that real estate could turn around in the US is 2013, and I actually expect it to be much later than that! GG alerted us to Mish Shedlock's highlighting 'Black Swan' Taleb's frank comments on Bernanke and Summers Garnet and Cheryl both mentioned the story of how one family got out of debt. Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Note from JWR: » Saturday September 19 2009Economics and Investing:More trade war rumblings: China Condemns U.S. Tariffs on Tires as 'Protectionism'. (Our thanks to KAF for the link.) Reader Laura H. mentioned: In 2009, US public debt will be approximately 90% of GDP "In 2009, US public debt will be approximately 90% of GDP. It will quickly approach and surpass 100% of GDP in the near future." Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Linda Rawles Memorial Fund Donations » Friday September 18 2009Economics and Investing:Pete A. spotted this one: Map: Household incomes by state. Look for some coming shifts in this map as the recession cum depression deepens. I think that the steepest declines in come will be on the coasts and in The Rust Belt. But a lot of my Recommended Retreat Areas may do better. From Krys W.: US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession Items from The Economatrix: Foreign Demand For Long-Term US Securities Fall « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Bug Out and Refugee Considerations, by Brad T. » Thursday September 17 2009Economics and Investing:U.N. calls for replacement of U.S. dollar; Joins Russia, China and G20 with demands IMF step forward (Thanks to Laura H. for the link.) Reader John M. suggested a Market-Ticker link that clearly describes the urgency of the financial situation: Warning: Deflationary Collapse Ahead. Items from The Economatrix: Derivatives Still Pose Huge Risk, BIS Says How the Collapse of Lehman Bros. Averted a Second Depression « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Wednesday September 16 2009Economics and Investing:Wow! Take a look at the latest market tickers for spot silver and spot gold. We might soon witness some profit-taking that could temporarily drive silver back to the $12 per ounce range. But consider that a buying opportunity. The next leg up will probably be in November, when The Chartist Gnome predicts silver over $18 per ounce and gold over $1,070. For those that already have bought metals: Do not attempt to "time" such a volatile market. Just hang on, and as the Gnome says, "Be ready for a roller coaster." Items from The Economatrix: « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Note from JWR: » Tuesday September 15 2009Economics and Investing:Monty recommended this piece over at Seeking Alpha by J.S. Kim: The Coming Consequences of Banking Fraud More about insider selling, courtesy of Pete S.: Insiders sell like there's no tomorrow; Corporate officers and directors were buying stock when the market hit bottom. What does it say that they're selling now? GG sent this: U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month Items from The Economatrix: Analyst: It's Too Late to Save Sears « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Living in the Time After TEOTWAWKI » Sunday September 13 2009Economics and Investing:"The Other Jim R." was the first of several readers that sent us this: Federal deficit hits $1.38 trillion through August. Mr. W. sent this: Three more down: 2009 Bank failure tally hits 92 Items from The Economatrix: Treasury Sees Millions More Foreclosures Forbes: The Dollar Collapses Gold Climbs to 18-Month High as Dollar Weakens US Growth to Slow After "Clunkers" Rebate Ends, Survey Shows « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Saturday September 12 2009Economics and Investing:You might have noticed that gold set a record weekly closing price on Friday at $1,005 per ounce, and silver closed at a respectable $16.70. I expect some profit-taking in the next two weeks, so be ready to buy on this dip! From Jeff D.: Treasury sees millions more foreclosures Ben M. spotted this piece quoting Items from The Economatrix: Government Paid Dealers $1.2 Billion for "Clunkers" « Four Letters Re: Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It, by Prepared in Maine |Main| Notes from JWR: » Friday September 11 2009One Woman's View of Budget Preparedness, by Lisa L.I wanted to write something for the contest for other ladies with children were in the same situation with wanting to be more prepared but not having the means to do so like the books recommend. I've had my frustrations but I've learned and bought gradually and wanted to share. :) It always upsets me when I hear in the media or from people their point of view that people are helpless due to their income level. This is what I've learned so far, how to cook with wheat, stockpiling shampoo for very little and ways to acquire some supplies for a 72-hour-kit inexpensively. 1. Educate yourself! I was able to get every preparedness book I requested from inter-library loan. Now I have high speed Internet and there are so many videos on YouTube. I was interested in learning how to use wheat so this is my experience. :) There are so many other preparedness topics and skills on youtube and in books. Try to eventually purchase wheat in different forms like whole wheat berries, cracked wheat , bulgar, whole wheat flour, and whole wheat pastry flour. Purchase items found at regular the grocery store too like oats, beans and rice. 6. Buy wheat in a larger quantities like 25 lbs or 50 lbs. At this point you will already be using it in your meals. You can do this from the same place you bought it in a small quantity before. Do this even if you don't have grain processing equipment but are cooking it on your crock pot. Look into buying other grains in the large quantities too like beans, rice and oats. Sam's club has the best price on Bastmati rice. Learn how to store food in 6 gallon buckets with a mylar bag and oxygen absorber. The same place that sells you wheat should sell 6 gallon buckets except for a health food store. I have not tried to pack my food like this yet but it's next on my list. :) There are some great videos on YouTube that demonstrate this. You can buy grains already packed like this. For some things like rice, I plan to pack myself with the O2 absorbers and mylar bags myself since it's more economical. (And sugar, too, minus the O2 absorbers.) Some Lessons Learned It now seems so easy but at first I had no idea about purchasing small quantities of wheat. I called some of the vendors and had no idea about small cans, had no idea the health food store sold wheat, etc. It really took me years from the time of learning about it to purchasing it because I didn't have the money for 50# and had no idea I could buy it in a #10 can or locally one pound at a time at the health food store. It would have saved me a lot of time had I known those things. I learned about 72-hour kits and low cost things from dealing with the hurricanes. The Prudent Homemaker. I know Brandy from the internet and she eats from her food storage. The nice thing about her blog is she posts recipes that she actually makes from her food storage and garden. She is really talented in making the food look really nice too. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Four Letters Re: Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It, by Prepared in Maine » Economics and Investing:This piece, sent to us by Damon S., should come as no surprise to SurvivalBlog readers: The Dollar Collapses; Commodities, stocks and foreign currencies all rise as investors sell dollars. As I've stated before, the magic number to watch for on the US Dollar Index (USDI) is 72. The territory south of 72 is terra incognita. "There Be Dragons." Phil G. sent this: Swiss topple U.S. as most competitive economy U.S. ‘unlikely’ to recoup auto outlay, panel finds Lack health coverage? You may pay; "Americans would be fined up to $3,800 for failing to buy health insurance under a plan that circulated in Congress on Tuesday as President Barack Obama met Democratic leaders to search for ways to salvage his health care overhaul." Items from The Economatrix: Rising Commodities Push Industrial Stocks Higher « Letter Re: A Practical Use for Post-1982 US Zinc Pennies |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Thursday September 10 2009Letter Re: Living in the Time After TEOTWAWKI
Dear Mr. Rawles, However, I have not seen anyone talk about how we will boot strap ourselves to back towards some sort of village life and civil society[, in the event of TEOTWAWKI]. In your novel "Patriots" , you touch on this with the Troy Barter Faire, and then fast forward at the end of the book to this being an accomplished fact. In the novel "One
Second After", the author makes the point that an EMP event could have pushed people back to a 19th century lifestyle, but things were more medieval because no one had the knowledge of how In a post-SHTF scenario, there won't be much call for fibre-channel administrators, but there will be a demand for bakers and candle makers. What I suggest is that while people are assembling their preps, they also look at the skills and services that they will need afterwards, and see if they can't learn to do these things themselves. After all, if they need them, Here's a quick list of skills/trades that I think would be useful in a post-SHTF world. Food: Dry goods, sundries: Clothing: Materials: Manufacturing: Many of these skills and trades can be started as a hobby. I suggest that people think about these now, and find what they have a knack for and consider it "job security" for the future. - Bear in California « Letter Re: Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It, by Prepared in Maine |Main| Letter Re: Living in the Time After TEOTWAWKI » Letter Re: A Practical Use for Post-1982 US Zinc Pennies
Dear Mr. Rawles, « Often-Overlooked Readiness: Preparing for Joy, by Carla |Main| Letter Re: Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It, by Prepared in Maine » Economics and Investing:
The latest weekly commentary and podcast from Don McAlvany: ECOSPASM: Inflation, Deflation, & Stagflation in One From DD: Is Buffett worried about stocks? Regular contributor Karen H. sent these news bits: Wealthy Families Face Bankruptcy on Real Estate Crash Items from The Economatrix: Lew Rockwell: The Great Fakeroo Recovery « Economics and Investing: |Main| Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It, by Prepared in Maine » Wednesday September 9 2009Letter Re: Bank Walkaways--Banks Intentionally Not Fully Foreclosing?
James Wesley, Thanks are hardly enough for the wake up call you’ve given me through your book and web site, but Thank You all the same. This is my first email to your in an attempt to contribute to your great knowledge resource looking out for people. On one hand I hope this is not happening, but if it is I hope you post the wake up call. All the best. - Hal H. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Bank Walkaways--Banks Intentionally Not Fully Foreclosing? » Economics and Investing:U.S. Government to Loan Brazil's Petrobras $10 Billion. This supercedes the old offer of $2 billion. Oh, but wait a minute! So if the BHO administration favors offshore drilling in US coastal waters, then why is this money going to Petrobras-Brazil instead of to US companies? Sue C. spotted this one: Dollar Falls to Lowest Versus Euro in 2009 as Stocks Rally And from A.C.: Schiff: Rising Gold Signals Inflation Items from The Economatrix: Gary North: Deflation, Inflation, Stagflation, Mass Inflation, Hyperinflation: Which One Will Get Us First? « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Tuesday September 8 2009Economics and Investing:Courtesy of The Other Jim R.: Dollar Will Weaken, Currency Crash Possible, Roubini Says From FG: More US wealthy opt to surrender their citizenship Ambrose Evans-Pritchard asks: Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts? "There are three ways out of our mess. We can pursue 1930s liquidation that purges debt through mass default. Such Calvinist destruction cannot be imposed on a modern democracy. We can devalue debt by deliberate inflation. This will backfire as bond vigilantes boycott government debt - unless rigged by capital controls or "administrative measures". You see where this leads. Or we can try to right the ship by paying down our debts, very slowly, by sweat and toil, navigating a treacherous course between the Scylla and Charybdis of the twin-flations, for as long as it takes. This is the only responsible course left we as we face the devastating consequences of our own credit delusions. Are we up it?" Reader Randy F. flagged this: China alarmed by US money printing; The US Federal Reserve's policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy. Items from The Economatrix: Food Stamp List Soars to New Record Past 35 Million « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Monday September 7 2009Economics and Investing:Sluggish growth in france leading to big trouble. (Thanks to DD for the link.) Larry T. sent this: Why Default on U.S. Treasuries is Likely, by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel. "Buried within the October 3, 2008 bailout bill was a provision permitting the Fed to pay interest on bank reserves. Within days, the Fed implemented this new power, essentially converting bank reserves into more government debt. Now, any seigniorage that government gains from creating bank reserves will completely vanish or be greatly reduced." Items from The Economatrix: Five Weeks on the Brink: Reliving the '08 Meltdown « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Influenza Pandemic Update: » Saturday September 5 2009Economics and Investing:I found this linked over at TotalInvestor.com: Worst of slump yet to come, says economist; Ann Pettifor predicted a painful end to the good times. Now she says that only radical action can prevent further gloom. Her prediction was right, but it is sad to see that she has bought in to the notion that governments can "spend their way out" of the credit collapse. GG sent this: Students Borrow More Than Ever for College--25% Increase FG flagged this Wall Street Journal piece: The Coming Reset in State Government - Governor Mitch Daniel. The governor of Indiana explains why the tax well is dry, and why it will remain dry. Items from The Economatrix: Jobless Rate Jumps to 9.7%; 216,000 Jobs Lost in August « Two Letters Re: Do it Yourself Low Temperature Casting |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Friday September 4 2009Letter Re: Some Economic Indicators to Watch
James Wesley, - Christmas will be a financial disaster - people are reluctant to spend their cash. Weak sales will be a tipping point for many retailers - Commercial real estate is the next “shoe-to-drop” - Small businesses continue to struggle – their problems will broaden and deepen as credit is strangled – SBA loans are off-the-street, defaults may be as high as 50% and growing, banks are not lending (see rutledgecapital.com – banks holding record cash reserves from Fred Reserve) - Consumer Credit Cards – the second next-shoe-to-drop – Piled high and deep – longer unemployment means people can’t keep up payments -Bankruptcies increase – especially in construction industry and real estate-related industries - Joblessness – watch the U-6 column (the BLS report on a more “real” unemployment number.) Unemployment, according to Dept of Labor is over 16.5% The big imminent threat? Inflation – “too much money chasing too few goods” as Milton Friedman warned. The government printing money, and inventories are falling –[ a classic inflation precursor]. Economic recovery? At least 18-24 months from now. Media reports about "recession end in sight" are nonsense. Federal leadership is a “nightmare” – making all the wrong moves. Look for higher taxes, inflation, increased joblessness (as small businesses fail). Outlook? Grim. Best Advice – Avoid bonds (higher yields which are needed encourage buyers of US Treasurys = lower bond prices) Avoid stocks – look for a "W" market move – stocks to go lower ([Dow] 3,800, H.S. Dent says) Why? Corporate earnings are very weak. What to buy? Farmland and ammunition And remember, I am an optimist. Blessings, - Jeff E. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Do it Yourself Low Temperature Casting » | ||||||||
, [the now out-of-print] SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog Volume 1, and 
/oat roller (it manually flakes grain) and the 
(electric grain mill to make flour from the whole wheat). Both have pretty good resale value compared to the initial cost [if purchased used] on eBay if you ended up needing to sell it quick to pay a bill. I use the grain flaker to crack wheat and turn oat groats into oats. I use the Wonder Mill to make whole wheat flour.