There are nearly 450 nuclear reactors in the world, with hundreds more either under construction or in the planning stages. There are 104 of these reactors in the USA and 195 in Europe. Imagine what havoc it would wreak on our civilization and the planet’s ecosystems if we were to suddenly witness not just one or two nuclear melt-downs but 400 or more! How likely is it that our world might experience an event that could ultimately cause hundreds of reactors to fail and melt down at approximately the same time?  I venture to say that, unless we take significant protective measures, this apocalyptic scenario is not only possible but probable.

Consider the ongoing problems caused by three reactor core meltdowns, explosions, and breached containment vessels at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi facility, and the subsequent health and environmental issues. Consider the millions of innocent victims that have already died or continue to suffer from horrific radiation-related health problems (“Chernobyl AIDS”, epidemic cancers, chronic fatigue, etc) resulting from the Chernobyl reactor explosions, fires, and fallout. If just two serious nuclear disasters, spaced 25 years apart, could cause such horrendous environmental catastrophes,  it is hard to imagine how we could ever hope to recover from hundreds of similar nuclear incidents occurring simultaneously across the planet. Since more than one third of all Americans live within 50 miles of a nuclear power plant, this is a serious issue that should be given top priority![1]

In the past 152 years, Earth has been struck roughly 100 solar storms causing significant geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), two of which were powerful enough to rank as “extreme GMDs”. If an extreme GMD of such magnitude were to occur today, in all likelihood it would initiate a chain of events leading to catastrophic failures at the vast majority of our world’s nuclear reactors, quite similar to the disasters at both Chernobyl and Fukushima, but multiplied over 100 times. When massive solar flares launch a huge mass of highly charged plasma (a coronal mass ejection, or CME) directly towards Earth, colliding with our planet’s outer atmosphere and magnetosphere, the result is a significant geomagnetic disturbance. 

Since an extreme GMD of such a potentially disruptive magnitude that it would collapse the grid across most of the US last occurred in May of 1921, long before the advent of  modern electronics, widespread electric power grids, and nuclear power plants, we are for the most part blissfully unaware of this threat and totally unprepared for its consequences. The good news is that there are some relatively affordable protective equipment and processes which could be installed to protect critical components in the electric power grid and its nuclear reactors, thereby protecting our civilization from this “end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it” scenario. The bad news is that, as of now, even though panels of scientists and engineers have studied the problem, and the bi-partisan congressional EMP commission has presented a list of specific recommendations to congress, our leaders have yet to approve and implement a single significant preventative measure!
Most of us believe something like this could never happen, and if it could, certainly our “authorities” would do everything in their power to make sure they would prevent such an Apocalypse from ever taking place. Unfortunately, the opposite is true. “How could this happen?” you might ask. “Is this truly possible?” Read and weep, for you will soon know the answer.

Our global system of electrical power generation and distribution (“the grid”), upon which every facet of our modern life is utterly dependent, in its current form is extremely vulnerable to severe geomagnetic storms of a magnitude that tends to strike our planet on an average of approximately once every 70 to 100 years. We depend on this grid to maintain food production and distribution, telecommunications, Internet services, medical services, military defense, transportation, government, water treatment, sewage and garbage removal, refrigeration, oil refining and gas pumping, and to conduct all forms of commerce.
Unfortunately, the world’s nuclear power plants, as they are currently designed, are critically dependent upon maintaining connection to a functioning electrical grid, for all but relatively short periods of electrical blackouts, in order to keep their reactor cores continuously cooled so as to avoid catastrophic reactor core meltdowns and spent fuel rod storage pond fires.

If an extreme GMD were to cause widespread grid collapse (which it most certainly will), in as little as one or two hours after each nuclear reactor facility’s backup generators either fail to start, or run out of fuel, the reactor cores will start to melt down. After a few days without electricity to run the cooling system pumps, the water bath covering the spent fuel rods stored in “spent fuel ponds” will boil away, allowing the stored fuel rods to melt down and burn [2]. Since the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) currently mandates that only one week’s supply of backup generator fuel needs to be stored at each reactor site, it is likely that after we witness the spectacular night-time celestial light show from the next extreme GMD we will have about one week in which to prepare ourselves for Armageddon.
To do nothing is to behave like ostriches with our heads in the sand, blindly believing that “everything will be okay,” as our world inexorably drifts towards the next naturally recurring, 100%  inevitable, super solar storm and resultant extreme GMD. The result of which in short order will end the industrialized world as we know it, incurring almost incalculable suffering, death, and environmental destruction on a scale not seen since the extinction of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago.

There are records from the 1850s to today of roughly one hundred significant geomagnetic solar storms, two of which in the last 25 years were strong enough to cause millions of dollars worth of damage to key components that keep our modern grid powered. In March of 1989, a severe solar storm induced powerful electric currents in grid wiring that fried a main power transformer in the HydroQuebec system, causing a cascading grid failure that knocked out power to 6 million customers for nine hours while also damaging similar transformers in New Jersey and the United Kingdom. More recently, in 2003 a solar storm of lesser intensity, but longer duration, caused a blackout in Sweden and induced powerful currents in the South African grid that severely damaged or destroyed fourteen of their major power transformers, impairing commerce and comfort over major portions of that country as they were forced to resort to massive rolling blackouts that dragged on for many months[3]. 

During the Great Geomagnetic Storm of May 14-15, 1921, brilliant aurora displays were reported in the Northern Hemisphere as far south as Mexico and Puerto Rico, and in the Southern Hemisphere as far north as Samoa[5]. This extreme GMD produced ground currents roughly ten times as strong as the 1989 Quebec incident. Just 62 years earlier, the great granddaddy of recorded GMDs, referred to as “The Carrington Event,” raged from August 28 to September 4, 1859. This extreme GMD induced currents so powerful that telegraph lines, towers, and stations caught on fire at a number of locations around the world. Best estimates are that the Carrington Event was approximately 50% stronger than the Great Geomagnetic Storm of 1921[6]. Since we are headed into an active solar period, much like the one preceding the Carrington Event, scientists are concerned that conditions could be ripe for the next extreme GMD[7].

Prior to the advent of the microchip and modern extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers (key grid components that were first introduced in the late 1960s), most electrical systems were relatively  robust and resistant to the effects of GMDs. Given the fact that a simple electrostatic spark can fry a microchip, and many thousands of miles of power lines act like giant antennas for capturing massive amounts of GMD spawned electromagnetic energy, the electrical systems of the modern world are far more vulnerable than their predecessors.

A growing number of scientists and engineers have become concerned about the vulnerability of both the grid and modern microelectronics to debilitating damage from severe electromagnetic disturbances. These could come either in the form of naturally occurring extreme GMDs, like what occurred during the 1921 and 1859 super solar storms, or an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) resulting from the deliberate detonation of a nuclear device at a high altitude above the earth.

The federal government recently sponsored a detailed scientific study to more fully understand the extent to which critical components of our national electrical power grid might be effected by either a naturally occurring GMD or a man-made EMP. Under the auspices of the EMP Commission and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and reviewed in depth by the Oakridge National Laboratory and the National Academy of Sciences,  Metatech Corporation undertook extensive modeling and analysis of the potential effects of extreme geomagnetic storms upon the U.S. electrical power grid. They based their modeling upon a storm of intensity equal to the Great Geomagnetic Storm of 1921. Metatech estimated that within the continental United States alone, these voltage and current spikes combined with harmonic anomalies would severely damage or destroy over 350 EHV power transformers critical to the functioning of the U.S. grid, and possibly well over 2000 EHV transformers worldwide.[8]

EHV transformers are custom designed for each installation and are made to order, weighing as much as 300 tons each, and costing well over US 1$ million each. Given the fact that there is currently a three year waiting list for a single EHV transformer (due to recent demand from China and India, the lead times have grown from one to three years), and that the total global manufacturing capacity is roughly 100 EHV transformers per year when the world’s manufacturing centers are functioning properly, you can begin to grasp the dire implications of this situation.

In addition to increasing total network size of the High Voltage Transmission Network, the network has grown in complexity with the introduction of higher-kilovolt rated lines that subsequently also tend to carry larger GIC (geomagnetically induced current) flows. (Grid size derived from data in the EHV Transmission Line Reference Book and the NERC Electricity Supply and Demand database; energy usage statistics from the US Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration.) [9]

The loss of thousands of EHV transformers worldwide would cause a catastrophic collapse of the grid, stretching across much of the industrialized world. It will take years at best for the industrialized world to put itself back together after such an event, especially considering the fact that most of the manufacturing centers that make this equipment will also be grappling with widespread grid failure.
Since the earth’s magnetic field tends to protect the tropical latitudes from the most damaging geomagnetic effects, with protection dropping as one travels closer to the poles, perhaps the infrastructure and manufacturing zones in places like Mexico, Malaysia, India, and Singapore will be spared. However, most of those countries probably also rely on goods and services imported from other parts of the world that would be crippled for many months (or years) in the event of  a an extreme GMD.

According to the various Metatech analyses, it is estimated that grid collapse will effect at least 130 million people in the United States alone. However, in a recent personal conversation, John Kappenman (author of the Metatech study) admitted that this estimate is probably grossly optimistic.[11] He noted that “killer trees” and other seemingly insignificant events have been attributed to being the tiny seeds that sprouted into giant multi-state blackouts. The massive Western States Blackout of August 10, 1996, apparently started when sagging power lines shorted against improperly pruned trees in Oregon during a triple-digit heat wave, cascading into a blackout that cut power to seven western states, parts of Baja, Mexico, and two Canadian provinces. Due to excessive loads from millions of air-conditioning units operating during the heat wave, the grid had been operating near peak capacity and the shorted lines threw it over the edge into cascading failure, affecting millions of customers[12].
A similar group of “killer trees” in the state of Ohio were apparently the root cause of the Great Northeastern Blackout of August 2003 that cut power to over 50 million people [13]. Kappenman also cited the recent September 2011 event where a utility technician flipped a switch to bypass a large series capacitor that was not working properly at a substation outside of Yuma Arizona, and for reasons not fully understood this caused a chain of events leading to  a massive cascading blackout that cut power to millions of customers in Arizona, California, and Mexico. This same blackout also caused two nuclear reactors at the San Onofre nuclear power plant to automatically shut down and go off line, which they are designed to do as a safety precaution in the event of a local grid failure. This exacerbated the situation by reducing the locally available generating capacity at the same time as utility workers were desperately trying to restore power to San Diego and other areas[14].

Five years ago I visited the still highly contaminated areas of Ukraine and the Belarus border where much of the radioactive plume from Chernobyl descended on 26 April 1986. I challenge chief scientist John Beddington and environmentalists like George Monbiot or any of the pundits now downplaying the risks of radiation to talk to the doctors, the scientists, the mothers, children and villagers who have been left with the consequences of a major nuclear accident. It was grim. We went from hospital to hospital and from one contaminated village to another. We found deformed and genetically mutated babies in the wards; pitifully sick children in the homes; adolescents with stunted growth and dwarf torsos; fetuses without thighs or fingers and villagers who told us every member of their family was sick. This was 20 years after the accident, but we heard of many unusual clusters of people with rare bone cancers…. Villages testified that ‘the Chernobyl necklace’—thyroid cancer—was so common as to be unremarkable.- John Vidal, “Nuclear’s Green Cheerleaders Forget Chernobyl at Our Peril,” Guardian. co.uk, April 1, 2011[15]

So what do extended grid blackouts have to do with potential nuclear catastrophes? Nuclear power plants are designed to disconnect automatically from the grid in the event of a local power failure or major grid anomaly, and once disconnected they begin the process of shutting down the reactor's core. In the event of the loss of coolant flow to an active nuclear reactor's core, the reactor will start to melt down and fail catastrophically within a matter of a few hours at most. In an extreme GMD, nearly every reactor in the world could be affected.

It was a short-term cooling system failure that caused the partial reactor core melt-down in March 1979 at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania. Similarly, according to Japanese authorities it was not direct damage from Japan’s 9.0 magnitude Tohoku Earthquake on March 11, 2011 that caused the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor disaster, but the loss of electric power to the reactor’s cooling system pumps when the reactor’s backup batteries and diesel generators were wiped out by the ensuing tidal waves. In the hours and days after the tidal waves shuttered the cooling systems, the cores of reactors number 1, 2, and 3 were in full meltdown and released hydrogen gas, fueling explosions which breached several reactor containment vessels and blew the roof off the building housing the spent fuel storage pond of reactor number 4.
Of even greater danger and concern than the reactor cores themselves are the spent fuel rods stored in on-site cooling ponds. Lacking a permanent spent nuclear fuel storage facility, so-called “temporary” nuclear fuel containment ponds are features common to nearly all nuclear reactor facilities. They typically contain the accumulated spent fuel from 10 or more decommissioned reactor cores. Due to lack of a permanent repository, most of these fuel containment ponds are greatly overloaded and tightly packed beyond original design. They are generally surrounded by common light industrial buildings, with concrete walls and corrugated steel roofs. Unlike the active reactor cores, which are encased inside massive “containment vessels” with thick walls of concrete and steel, the buildings surrounding spent fuel rod storage ponds would do practically nothing to contain radioactive contaminants in the event of prolonged cooling system failures. 

Since spent fuel ponds typically hold far greater quantities of highly radioactive material then the active nuclear reactors locked inside reinforced containment vessels, they clearly present far greater potential  for the catastrophic spread of highly radioactive contaminants over huge swaths of land, polluting the environment for multiple generations spanning hundreds of years. A study by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) determined that the “boil down time” for  spent fuel rod containment ponds runs from between 4 and 22 days after loss of cooling system power before degenerating into a Fukushima-like situation, depending upon the type of nuclear reactor and how recently its latest batch of fuel rods had been decommissioned[16].

Reactor fuel rods have a protective zirconium cladding, which if superheated while exposed to air will burn with intense self-generating heat, much like a magnesium fire, releasing highly radioactive aerosols and smoke. According to Arnie Gundersen, former Senior Vice President for Nuclear Engineering Services Corporation, now turned nuclear whistle-blower, once a zirconium fire has started, due to its extreme temperatures and high degree of reactivity, contact with water will result in the water dissociating into hydrogen and oxygen gases, which will almost certainly lead to violent explosions. Gundersen says that once a zirconium fuel rod fire has started, the worst thing you could do is to try to quench the fire with water streams, since this action will only make matters worse and lead to violent explosions. Gundersen believes the massive explosion that blew the roof off the spent fuel pond at Fukushima was caused by zirconium induced hydrogen dissociation[16].

A few days after the tidal waves destroyed the generators providing back-up electrical power to Fukushima Daiichi's cooling system, the protective water bath boiled away from the spent fuel pond for reactor no. 4, leaving the stored spent fuel rods partially exposed to the air. Had it not been for heroic efforts on the part of Japan’s nuclear workers to replenish water in this spent fuel pool, these spent rods would have melted down and their zirconium cladding would have ignited, which most likely would have released far more radioactive contamination than what came from the three reactor core meltdowns.

Japanese officials estimate that, to date, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster has released just over half of the total radioactive contamination released from Chernobyl, but other sources suggest that the radiation released could be significantly more. In the event of an extreme GMD-induced long-term grid collapse covering much of the globe, if just half of the world's spent fuel ponds boil off their water and become radioactive zirconium-fed infernos, the ensuing contamination will far exceed the cumulative effect of 400 Chernobyls.

Most of us tend to believe that a nuclear reactor is something that can be shut down in short order, like some massive piece of  machinery that can be turned off  by simply flipping a switch, or by performing a series of operations in a prescribed manner over a relatively short time, such as a few hours or perhaps a day or two. In spite of my MIT education (BSME, MIT, 1978), until recently I too was under the spell of this comforting delusion, which is far from the truth. You see, the trillions of chain reactions going on inside a nuclear reactor’s core continuously produce such incredible amounts of energy that a single nuclear power plant can generate more electricity than is required to power a good sized city. Unfortunately, these reactions do not simply “cease fire” at the flip of a switch. In general, it takes 5 to 7 days to slow down a reactor core’s nuclear chain reactions to the point where the core may be removed from the reactor.

After removal, the fuel rods are quite “hot”, both from the perspective of temperature and radioactivity. For the next 3 to 5 years these fuel rods must be immersed under roughly 20 feet of  continuously cooled water, both to shield the surrounding area from radioactivity, as well as to prevent catastrophic melt-down from occurring. According to Gundersen, after slowing down the chain reactions inside the reactor cores at Fukushima for a full eight months, the fuel rods would start melting down again if coolant flow was suspended for just 38 hours.

Gundersen explained that, essentially all modern nuclear reactors are designed with banks of "fuel rods", which contain highly radioactive materials, combined with banks of "control rods", which mesh between the fuel rods like the interwoven fingers of your right and left hands. It is the degree of interweave that moderates and controls the rate of nuclear chain reactions. He further explained that in the event of a significant loss of reactor control, reactors are designed for a "fail-safe" process to occur, where the control rods automatically fall into the fully meshed position with respect to the fuel rods, resulting in maximal slowing of the core's nuclear reactions and beginning the process of shutting down the reactor.

Typically, this action rapidly reduces the power produced by these chain reactions by a factor of 20:1 (to 5.0 per cent of full power), but that still leaves thousands of horsepower worth of waste heat that must be removed if the reactor core is not to rapidly overheat and fail catastrophically. After a day of leaving the control rods in the fully interwoven position, this reaction slows to 1.0 per cent, and after a week it will be about 0.1 per cent of full power. Once the reactions in the fuel rods slow to the point where the rods may be removed from the reactor, the spent fuel rods must be cooled inside containment ponds for 3–5 more years before the nuclear reactions decay to a point where the rods can be moved to specially designed air-cooled storage banks.

As mentioned previously, nuclear power plants are only required to store enough backup fuel reserves on-site to keep their backup diesel generators running for a period of one week. The NRC has always operated from the assumption that extended grid “blackouts” would not last for periods of more than a few days. The government has promised that, in the event of a major catastrophe such as a Hurricane Katrina, diesel trucks will show up like clockwork at all troubled nuclear facilities until local grid-supplied electrical power services have been re-established. Unfortunately, governments and regulators have not considered the possibility that the next extreme GMD  which Mother Nature unleashes upon Earth will quite likely disrupt grid services over much of the industrial world for a period of years, not just days. The chances that the world’s nuclear reactors will receive weekly deliveries of diesel fuel under such chaotic circumstances are practically zero. In a world suffering from loss of fuel and electric power, if any such deliveries were attempted those fuel tankers would be prime targets for armed hijackers.

Had it not been for heroic efforts on the part of Japan’s nuclear workers to replenish waters in the spent fuel pool at Fukushima, those spent fuel rods would have melted down and ignited their zirconium cladding, which most likely would have released far more radioactive contamination than what came from the three reactor core melt-downs. Japanese officials have estimate that the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster has already released into the local environment just over half the total radioactive contamination as was released by Chernobyl, but other sources estimate it could be significantly more than was released by the accident at Chernobyl. In the event that an extreme GMD induced long-term grid collapse covering much of the globe, if just half of the world’s spent fuel ponds were to boil off their water and become radioactive zirconium fed infernos, the ensuing contamination could far exceed the cumulative effect of 400 Chernobyls.

Many of the control systems we considered achieved optimal connectivity through Ethernet cabling. EMP coupling of electrical transients to the cables proved to be an important vulnerability during threat illumination…. The testing and analysis indicate that the electronics could be expected to see roughly 100 to 700 ampere current transients on typical Ethernet cables. Effects noted in EMP testing occurred at the lower end of this scale. The bottom line observation at the end of the testing was that every system failed when exposed to the simulated EMP environment. - Report of the Commission to Asses the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack[18]

Electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) and solar super storms are two different, but related, categories of events that are often described as high-impact, low  frequency (HILF) events. Events categorized as HILF don’t happen very often, but if and when they do they have the potential to severely affect the lives of many millions of people. Think of an EMP as a super-powerful radio wave capable of inducing damaging voltage spikes in electrical wires and electronic devices across vast geographical areas. What is generally referred to as an EMP strike is the deliberate detonation of a nuclear device at a high altitude, roughly defined as somewhere between 24 and 240 miles (40 and 400 kilometers) above the surface of the earth. Nuclear detonations of this type have the potential to cause serious damage to electronics and electrical power grids along their line of sight, covering huge distances on the order of a circular area 1,500 miles (2,500 kilometers) in diameter, which would correspond to an area stretching roughly from Quebec City in Canada down to Dallas, Texas and reaching almost as far south as Miami, Florida. The geomagnetic effects of extreme solar storms are sometimes also described as a “natural EMP”.[19]

The concern is that some rogue state or terrorist organization might build their own nuclear device from scratch or buy one illegally, procure a Scud missile (or similar) on the black market and launch their nuclear device from a large fishing boat or freighter somewhere off the coast of the US, causing grid collapse and widespread damage to electronic devices across roughly 50% of America. Much like an extreme GMD, a powerful EMP attack would also cause widespread grid collapse, but it would be limited to a much smaller geographical area.

A powerful  EMP  from a sub-orbital nuclear detonation would cause extreme electromagnetic effects, starting with an initial short duration “speed of light” pulse, referred to as an “E1” effect, followed by a middle duration pulse called an “E2” effect, which is followed by a longer duration disturbance known as an “E3” effect. The “E1” effect lasts on the order of a few nanoseconds, and is quite similar to massive electrostatic discharges, much like the sparks that surge from an extended fingertip after rubbing your feet on the carpet on a cold clear winter’s day, except they would surge through the hearts of electronic equipment distributed over a vast geographic area. These types of electrostatic spark discharges are particularly damaging to digital microelectronic chips  that are at the core of most modern electronic equipment.

The intermediate “E2” effects last a fraction of a second, and are similar to many thousands to millions of lightning strikes hitting over a widespread area at almost exactly the same time. Unfortunately, many of the devices designed to protect equipment from lightning damage, such as surge protectors, will be incapacitated by damage from the E1 pulse, leaving millions of electronic devices and systems susceptible to damage from the E2 effects.  

In the case of a nuclear induced EMP, its E3 effect starts after about a half second and may continue for several minutes. The E3 effect can be thought of as a “long slow burn”, and electromagnetically it is quite similar to the effects from an extreme GMD. The main difference between the E3 from an EMP and what occurs during an extreme GMD is that the EMP effect may continue for  a number of minutes, whereas the extreme GMD may continue for a number of hours or days. However, the magnitude of the induced magnetic field strengths from an EMP attack and an extreme GMD are about the same, with similar potential for causing severe damage to EHV transformers across the affected areas.

Inside the affected area, an EMP’s E3 effect would cause a similar degree of damage to the EHV transformers as that from an extreme GMD, but the E1 and E2 effects would cause far greater damage to electronic control systems than that from a GMD of similar intensity. Contrary to popular opinion, most personal electronic devices would probably survive with little or no damage, especially if they were not turned on at the moment of EMP, as would most automobiles. However, most complex electronic systems that contained digital microchips in combination with long runs of Ethernet cables (or other interconnecting cabling) which act like antennas for receiving EMP induced voltage spikes, would experience nearly 100% failure! [20]

A “successful” EMP attack launched against the US would most likely result in the immediate collapse of the grid across roughly 50% of the country, and crash the stock market. For the reasons discussed above, modern digital electronic control systems are highly susceptible to damage from EMP. These systems include programmable logic controllers (PLC), digital control systems (DCS),  and supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), all of which are absolutely critical for running factories, refineries, power plants, nuclear reactors, sewage plants, etc., as well as for diagnosing problems within those facilities and systems.
Bill Kaewert, President and CTO of Stored Energy Systems, LLC, a supplier of  backup power systems and components for mission-critical structures, such as Minuteman III missile silos, data centers, and critical corporate facilities, recently took part in a “Tabletop EMP” exercise hosted at the National Defense University. Dozens of the nation’s leading first responders, public safety experts, and military personnel took part in this exercise simulating a massive grid-down scenario typical of an EMP attack or an extreme GMD. According to Kaewert, even these highly trained personnel had a hard time grappling with the public safety implications of a disaster the size of fifty Hurricane Katrinas. It was also quite apparent that in an extended grid collapse a large number of emergency responders, military and government personnel would abandon their posts to protect their family and friends from the ensuing chaos[21].

In October of 1962, the Soviet Union conducted three above ground nuclear tests over Kazakhstan to study the effects of EMP. Due to its more northerly location, the EMP effects at the Kazakhstan test site were several times stronger than those observed during the more well-known “Starfish Prime” nuclear test, where the U.S. military detonated a 1.4 megaton nuclear device in July of 1962, 250 miles above Johnston Island, which is 900 miles south of Honolulu, HI. During the Soviet EMP tests, massive current spikes were induced in a 600 mile (1000 kilometer) long high-voltage power line that was buried six feet (two meters) underground. Massive induced currents caused a fire in the Karaganda power plant at the far end of the line, burning it to the ground. In anticipation of power outages caused by the EMP tests, the Russian military had pre-placed a backup diesel generators on site, but many of these generators were damaged by the EMP blast and would not start prior to being repaired. Located at great distances from the test site ground zero, several military radar units were also disabled by the EMP. Due to the use of solid-state devices containing microchips, today’s electrical devices are generally far less resistant to EMP damage than the devices in use during these EMP tests that took place back in the early 1960s. In today’s world, scientists predict that within the heavily affected area an EMP strike would cripple many backup power systems along with the vast majority of digital electronic control systems.

Since his deployment with the U.S. military in the early 1980s, Dr. George Baker has been involved the study of  EMP effects, as well as the design of EMP hardened devices, EMP weapons, and developing EMP standards for military and civilian usage. His resume reads like a “Who’s Who” of EMP, including being a Principal Staff member of the Congressional Commission to Asses the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP). Baker states that, “electronic systems are so complex, from an electromagnetic coupling standpoint, that we simply cannot predict what will fail or survive an EMP event. Actual EMP testing is the only way to know whether or not a particular electronic device will survive an EMP attack.” [22]

The only good news about EMP strike is that its effect will cover a much smaller area than an extreme GMD, so there will be a significant portion of the rest of the US, as well as the rest of the outside world, left intact and able to lend a hand towards rebuilding critical infrastructure in the affected areas. Imagine the near total loss of a functioning infrastructure across an area of about a million square miles (approximately 1.6 million square kilometers, roughly equivalent to 50 Hurricane Katrinas happening simultaneously) and you will have some idea of the crippling effect of an EMP attack from a single medium sized sub-orbital nuclear detonation!

The simple fact of the matter is that approximately 1/3 of the population of the U.S. lives within 50 miles of a nuclear power plant, the vast majority of which are located in the eastern half of the country—the prime target for an EMP attack. If the reactor vessel was breeched at the Indian Point nuclear power plant 38 mile north of New York City, and the city itself was contaminated with four times the safe level of Cesium 137 (a radioactive isotope that was deposited at dangerous levels on areas surrounding Fukushima), which has a half life of 30 years, then it would take roughly 60 years before the local Cesium 137 decayed to levels at which New York City could be safely re-occupied[23]. Given the likelihood that backup power systems will fail at a significant percentage of the nuclear installations within the EMP affected area, and the distinct probability that all utilities and central services would collapse over many of the nation’s population centers, the need to invest in preventative measures should be quite obvious.

The congressionally mandated EMP Commission has studied the threat of both EMP and extreme GMD events, and made recommendations to the US congress to implement protective devices and procedures to insure the survival of the grid and other critical infrastructures in either event. John Kappenman, author of the Metatech study, estimates that it would cost on the order of $1 billion to build special protective devices into the US grid to protect its EHV transformers from EMP or extreme GMD damage, and to build stores of critical replacement parts should some of these items be damaged or destroyed. Kappenman estimates that it would cost significantly less than $1 billion to store at least a year’s worth of diesel fuel for backup generators at each US nuclear facility and to store sets of critical spare parts, such as backup generators, inside EMP-hardened steel containers to be available for quick change-out in the event that any of these items were damaged by an EMP or GMD[24].

To me, this is a no-brainer. For the cost of a single B-2 bomber or a tiny fraction of the TARP bank bailout, we could invest in preventative measures to avert what might well become the end of our civilization and life as we know it! There is no way to protect against all possible effects from an extreme GMD or an EMP attack, but certainly we could implement measures to protect against the worst effects. Since 2008, Congress has narrowly failed to pass legislation that would implement at least some of the EMP Commission’s recommendations[25].

For more than 50 years, the US Army Corps of Engineers knew that New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen, and they made plans for rebuilding the aging system of inadequate levies, but those plans were never implemented. Have we learned nothing from the wholly preventable flooding of New Orleans? Will we continue to ignore facts and pretend that “everything will be okay” while our world drifts towards the next inevitable extreme GMD, or until some terrorist organization or rogue state launches an EMP attack? This time, failure to prepare will not just mean the loss of a major city, but the end of the industrialized world as we know it, along with incalculable suffering, death, and environmental destruction.

We have a long ways to go to make our world EMP and GMD safe. Every citizen can do their part to push for legislation to move towards this goal, and to work inside our homes and communities to develop local resilience and self reliance, so that in the event of a long term grid-down scenario, we might make the most of a bad situation. The same tools that are espoused by the “Transition Movement” for developing local self-reliance and resilience to help cope with the twin effects of climate change and peak oil could also serve communities well in the event of an EMP attack or extreme GMD. If our country were to implement safeguards to protect our grid and nuclear power plants from EMP, it would also eliminate the primary incentive for a terrorist to launch an EMP attack. The sooner we take these actions the less chance that an EMP attack will occur!

For more information, or to get involved, see:

• EMPActAmerica.org/
• Survive-EMP.com/
• TransitionNetwork.org/

...and please contact your congressman.

NOTES:
[1] Bill Dedman, “Nuclear Neighbors: Population Rises Near Nuclear Reactors,” MSNBC.com. Accessed December 2011.
 [2] Dina Cappiello, “Long Blackouts Pose Risk to U.S. Nuclear Reactors,” Associated Press, March 29, 2011.
[3] Lawrence E. Joseph, “The Sun Also Surprises,” New York Times, August 15, 2010. Accessed August 2010.
[4] John Kappenman, “Geomagnetic Storms and Their Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid,” Metatech Corporation, prepared for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Meta-R-319, January 2010, p. 2—29.

[5] S. M. Silverman and E. W. Cliver, “Low-Altitude Auroras: The Magnetic Storm of 14-15 May 1921,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 63, (2001), p. 523-535. Additionally,  “High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System: A Jointly Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U.S. Department of Energy’s November 2009 Workshop,” June, 2010, p. 68.
[6] Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop National Research Council, “Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report,” National Research Council of the National Academies (2008), p. 7-13, and p. 100. Additionally, E. W. Cliver and L. Svalgaard, “The 1859 Solar-Terrestrial Disturbance and the Current Limits of Extreme Space Weather Activity,” Solar Physics (2004) 224, P. 407-422.
[7] Richard A. Lovett, “What if the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?” National Geographic News, March 2, 2011. Accessed December 2011.
[8] John Kappenman, “Geomagnetic Storms and Their Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid,” Metatech Corporation, prepared for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Meta-R-319, January 2010. Accessed November 2011.
[9] Ibid., p. 1—3.
[10] Ibid., p. 4—2.
[11] John Kappenman, interview by author, December 2011.
[12] “Sagging Power Lines, Hot Weather Blamed for Blackout,” CNN News, August 11, 1996. Accessed June 2000.
[13] Bryan Walsh, “Can We Prevent Another Blackout?” Time, August 11, 2008. Accessed December 2011.
[14] Lauren Effron, David Wright, Julie NA and Jason Volack, “One Electrical Worker Blamed for Leaving Millions Without Power in California, Arizona, and Mexico,” ABC News, September 8, 2011. Accessed December 2011.
[15] John Vidal, “Nuclear’s Green Cheerleaders Forget Chernobyl at Our Peril,” Guardian.co.uk, April 1, 2011. Accessed May 2011.
[16] NUREG-1738, “Technical Study of Spent Fuel Pool Accident Risk at Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants,” February 2001, as reported in “Petition for Rulemaking: Docket No. PRM-50-96,” Foundation for Resilient Societies before the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, p. 3-9 and 49-50. Accessed December, 2011.
[17] Arnold Gundersen, interview by author, November 2011.
[18] “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures,” April, 2008, p. 6.
 [19] “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Volume 1: Executive Report,” 2004, p. 6.
[20] “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures,” April, 2008. Extensively referred to for EMP definitions and effects.
[21] Bill Kaewert, interview by author, December 2011.
[22] Dr. George Baker, interview by author, December 2011
[23] Victor Gilinsky, “Indian Point: The Next Fukushima?” The New York Times, December 16, 2011. Accessed December 2011.
[24] John Kappenman, interview by author, December 2011.
[25] Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, “Statement Before the Congressional Caucus on EMP,” EMPact America, February 15, 2011.

Additional references not directly cited:

 “Nuke Plant’s Generator Failures Draw Scrutiny,” CBS News, October 10, 2011.
Gary Null, PhD, and Jeremy Stillman, “Solar Storms: Katrina Times 1000? A Real Armageddon Meltdown is Possible,” Progressive Radio Network, October 6, 2011.
Beth Daley, “Markey: Back-Up Generators Failed During Tests at US Nuclear Power Plants,” Boston Globe, May 12, 2011. Accessed Jan 2012.
Yousaf M. Butt, “The EMP Threat: Fact, Fiction, and Response (Part 1),” The Space Review, January 25, 2010. Accessed December 2012.
Yousaf M. Butt, “The EMP Threat: Fact, Fiction, and Response (Part 2),” The Space Review, January 25, 2010.
“Initial Economic Assessment of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Impact Upon the Baltimore-Richmond Region,” by The Sage Policy Group, September 10, 2007.
Edward Savage, James Gilbert, and William Radasky, “Early-Time (E1) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its Impact on the U.S. Power Grid,” Metatech Corporation, prepared for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Meta-R-320, January 2010. Accessed January 2012.
James Gilbert, John Kappenman, William Radasky, and Edward Savage, “The Late-Time (E3) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its Impact on the U.S. Power Grid,” Metatech Corporation, prepared for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Meta-R-321, January 2010. Accessed January 2012.

About the author: Matthew Stein is a design engineer, green builder, and author of two best selling books: When Disaster Strikes: A Comprehensive Guide for Emergency Planning and Crisis Survival (Chelsea Green 2011), and When Technology Fails (Revised & Expanded): A Manual for Self-Reliance, Sustainability, and Surviving the Long Emergency (Chelsea Green 2008). Stein is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) where he majored in Mechanical Engineering. Stein has appeared on numerous radio and television programs and is a repeat guest on Fox News, Lionel, Coast-to-Coast AM, and the Thom Hartmann Show.  He is an active mountain climber, serves as a guide and instructor for blind skiers, has written several articles on the subject of sustainable living, and is a guest columnist for the Huffington Post.

Mr. Rawles,
During my train up for my deployment to Iraq, we were taught how to properly document evidence for prosecution of suspected insurgents. Formerly, this was known as Sensitive Site Exploitation (SSE), but was renamed to Tactical Site Exploitation (TSE) a few years ago. One of the biggest things drilled into us was they did not want any American soldiers in any of the pictures. There are probably a myriad of reasons for this, but it made sense. My suggestion with taking pictures to document anything would to not have any people in the pictures to begin with, if at all possible. When taking photographs of the scene, I would recommend when starting with any bodies, to not move or remove anything from it(except for moving any weapons out of arms reach when you initially come up to them, as to help maintain the safety of you and your group). Then, once you have the initial pictures taken, search the bodies(while documenting it), and take a picture of each individual item found. Put it in a pile. Once you are complete, organize all the items next to the body, then take a photograph of the body with the items(be sure you clear all weapons, accidents happen). Then, bag it all up in a bag (we used heavy duty black trash bags), and tag it with a date, time, and if the person it's from had some sort of identification, the name. Tag the weapons the same and store them separately, such as a gun safe.

As far as a written documentation of the event, I would normally go with a DA Form 2823, which is a Sworn Statement. However, at the bottom of the last page, it needs a signature from "a person authorized by law to administer oaths". Quite frankly, if all you have is a neighbor to sign off on it, then so be it. Or, use it as a reference to make your own. This form is at a .mil web site, but you do not need to log in.

And I agree with Mr. Rawles: It is better to over-document it and not need it, than to not document enough and wish you had, down the road.

Good luck, God bless, and God speed, - Z.R.

Mr. Rawles,
I respectfully disagree with your response to Scott P. on how to act in the aftermath of a shooting in a SHTF scenario.

I am a law student in my final year, and though I am not an attorney yet (this is not and should not be considered legal advice), I would recommend treating each shooting on a case by case scenario. The worst thing you can do is provide the dead person's family or an overzealous prosecutor with more evidence and ammunition. Let's say you do document the scene, you are not a criminal investigator, you don't know about body positions, ballistics, and the applicable legal issues. You can make a mistake that will make the pictures look worse than they are. You may mistakenly write something in an after action report that is damning to your case. You do not have an attorney with you to counsel you on what to say or not say. You are not an expert in forensics and prosecutors and plaintiff's attorneys can twist things to make them look very bad.
 
I think that the best way to deal with a self-defense killing in a SHTF scenario you need to leave as little of a trace as possible. Burn bodies where possible. or dispose of in swamps or with chemicals if available, or bury them in unmarked graves (health concerns should govern first followed by leaving no trace). If you live in a place with lots of carrion-eating wildlife (coyotes, wolves, bears, vultures, foxes) then leaving the bodies a very far distance from your homestead could also work. I'm sure there are other and better ways, but the key is if there is no evidence then there is "no evidence." Beyond a reasonable doubt is an extremely high threshold and without a body or any evidence there is very little of a case. However, if there is a great deal of evidence the chances of being charged with a crime increases. This is of more of a concern when dealing with politically motivated or populist prosecutions in the aftermath. 

When in doubt, do not document.  In fact, destroy any and all evidence that you may have. It is the killings with no evidence and a closed-mouthed family/retreat group who never talks to police (because you never legally have to) that will pass scrutiny, but give them reams of potential evidence and that is another story.

Regards and keep up the good work! - G.

JWR Replies: It seems that were are at opposite ends of the spectrum on this issue. In my estimation, the approach that you propose could only work for someone who lives in a very remote wilderness area with no neighbors. Even here in the relative hinterboonies at the Rawles Ranch, we have a some neighbors that live within a mile. I suspect that the majority of SurvivalBlog readers have neighbors that live a lot closer than that. So, odds are someone will hear the commotion of rapid fire shooting and they will come to investigate before you have your chance to "burn the bodies" as you suggest.

Let's face it, even if you had a lot of time, there would be too many loose ends to tie up. Here are a few instances:

1.) Most modern guns are automatics, which means that they eject fired brass. If you were to miss finding just one piece of brass (and there might be dozens in a serious shooting affray), then there is evidence for prosecution--or at least a civil suit.

2.) Most Americans travel everywhere by motor vehicle. What are you going to do with the bad guys' vehicle(s)?

3.) When someone dies of gunshot wound, there is a tremendous amount of blood that gets spilled and in most cases it gets splattered around liberally and at surprising distances. (When people die they tend to thrash around.) Real life gunshot wounds are not at all like you see in television shows--with just a quaint little dribble of blood and then the bad guys drops instantly to the ground and dies with a sigh. In the real world, expect to hear people screaming their lungs out, expect to see people running or even crawling for considerable distances after getting shot, and expect to see a veritable Technicolor paint job of several gallons of blood, brain matter, bone marrow, spittle, stomach contents, and feces spread far and wide. Trust me on this. In college, I worked as a security guard at a hospital emergency room. An emergency room can best be called "A place of fluids"--just one notch below a cattle slaughterhouse. And, FWIW, consider that we typically saw the patients 15 to 60 minutes after the initial bloodshed. There, the larger portion of the fluids were left behind. Places where people die of gunshot wounds are rarely tidy. (And, BTW, when they are found looking tidy, there is usually a lot more to the story.)

4.) The predators in our society tend to travel in packs. Unless you are incredibly lucky and shoot all the bad guys dead, then there probably will be a living witness, and odds are that he will be a hostile witness. You may need all of the supporting evidence that you can muster.

5.) Not only do we live in a litigious society, but we also live in a society where cell phones with integral digital cameras have become ubiquitous. Whenever there is deep drama and trauma, then out come the cell phones.

6.) Do not trust in promises to "keep quiet", by your neighbors. History has shown repeatedly that people rarely keep such promises in capital crime cases. People do talk. Eventually the truth will come out.

7.) Modern forensic science has removed the need for 200 pounds of rotting corpus delicti for evidence to secure a murder conviction. Just one human hair with a root intact or one dried blood droplet providing DNA evidence could been deemed sufficient to corroborate testimony from eyewitnesses.

Lastly, consider that the standards of evidence required in a civil suit are much lower than those needed in a criminal case. Just ask O.J. Simpson. (Some have claimed that he "got away with murder", but then he lost $33.5 million in the civil suit filed by Ron Goldman's relatives.)

Nothing is more damning in the eyes of a jury than a defendant's attempts to conceal or destroy evidence. I stand by what I wrote: If your actions were righteous self defense, then document your evidence, don't try to destroy it.

Mr. Rawles,
I recently saw another preparedness site pose a question: “what happens after the crisis is over…???” The question was this: Once the SHTF and the world “resets itself” and the rule of law is re-established, certainly some form of government will start asking  who shot who, what crimes were committed, and generally start prosecuting the bad guys. I feel very certain that I can now keep my family and I safe and sound through your educational efforts. But I am not clear how I will defend my efforts weeks, months, or years after the fact.

If possible, could you discuss what your thoughts are, not so much in the surviving, but “cleaning up the mess” after things most certainly will return to normal? I know this is a broad topic, but I cannot see where it has been talked about very much. I don’t intend to loot, steal, or rob anybody… but I am prepared to defend what is mine. Thanks, - Scott P.

JWR Replies: While there are bound to be some inquiries, the chances of them focusing on you are slim. But just in case it does happen, my recommendations for my readers in The United States are as follows:

1.) If you live in a "Castle Doctrine" state, then post lethal force warning signs in both English and Spanish, immediately after the onset of a crisis.

2.) If there is a shooting incident, then do you best to end it forcefully and decisively, but show restraint. Don't continue to shoot once a group of attackers begins to retreat. Entry wounds in the back are hard to explain.

3.) If you take a life in self defense, make every effort to report it and get a law enforcement officer to come and take a report. If the police, sheriff, or coroner can't come (for any reason), then work your way down the list of civil servants until you get down to National Guardsmen, fish and game officers, and the local dog catcher. Some sort of official report is better than no report. (The lack of a report might later cause suspicion of foul play.) Be sure to ask whoever takes the report to also draw a diagram of the scene, and to take digital pictures. They might someday prove crucial to avoiding an exhumation.

4.) If, because of the disaster situation you can't get any official to come and take a report, then ask you neighbors to come and assist you. You and your neighbors should draw a diagram of the scene, and take digital pictures. Take pictures from all angles, and roll the body (or bodies) over and photograph the exit wounds. Avoid taking any grinning "gory glory" shot, or making any demonstration of glee or "good riddance". Look appropriately somber and be respectful of the dead.) Write a detailed account of the incident, and have your neighbors sign and date it. Do this as soon as possible. If there were any witnesses, have them also write an after-action report and sign and date it. Once any semblance of law and order is restored, have all of the statements notarized, and file them with your local police or sheriff's department office. At the same time, turn in any captured weapons, identification, personal effects, or vehicles as evidence. (You do not want any appearance of having profited in any way from the incident.)

5.) If circumstances dictate it, the burial of any bodies of deceased looters should be done with as many witnesses as possible, in full daylight. Be sure to photograph the event. Give them a proper Christian burial, and mark the grave site. Record the GPS coordinates in your report.

If and when there is any subsequent finger pointing, I suspect that it will be the ambiguous incidents that will warrant investigation. Those that properly document self-defense shooting events will face little scrutiny. The foregoing may sound a bit extreme, but never forget that we live is a very litigious society. Even if you a cleared of any criminal wrong-doing, there is always the threat of a civil suit, by relatives of the deceased hombres malos. If in doubt, over-document what happened.

People in the general public have little to no idea just how bad the drug abuse of prescriptions medications is here in the US.  Our recent discussion with our church small group spurred us to write this review for your thoughtful review.  Some fun facts to start us off, courtesy of one of my reliable medical reference sites, UpToDate:
 
6.2 million Americans in 2008 admitted to non-medical use of prescription drugs, 2.5 % of the population.
The number of Americans who have abused prescription drugs exceeds those who have used cocaine, heroin, hallucinogens, ecstasy, and inhalants combined.
A 2005 survey of 50,000 US high school students found that while overall illicit drug use declined among adolescents over the prior decade, their non-medical use of prescription pain relievers and sedatives has increased.
Only marijuana use among illicit drugs (although becoming more “legal” everyday in some states) exceeds non-medical use of prescription drugs.
 
We start with those fun facts to shock you into reading further in addition to alerting you as to the depth and severity of the problem. WTSHTF, these 6 to 10 million seekers are going to be unhappy, withdrawing, and looking to score some pills.  They may be coming to your house, as 2.5% of the population is one out of 40 folks.  Most of us involved in primary care medicine would probably double that estimate, and in some areas of the country the rate will be much higher.  And this is just prescription medications, not to mention the illicit drug users that will become prescription seekers that will have to “make do” with pain pills or tranquilizers as a substitute for the drug that they are going without.
 
In our current, happy, open-pharmacy world, there are some risk factors that can identify those more likely to be abusing prescription medications, but there are many more folks abusing those drugs that don’t fit the profile at all.  Those found to be at increased likelihood of abusing prescription drugs include:
• Past or current substance abuse or addiction
• Use of controlled substances in non-prescribed doses and routes of administration
• Use of controlled substances for reasons other than indications for which they were prescribed
• Patients of younger age
• Patients who work in health care settings
 
From observational experience, drug abuse of prescription medications has certainly been on the rise since my initial start in the medical field 17 years ago.  It is one of the heartbreaking aspects of our day to day existence.  Almost every day in the clinics, urgent care facilities and ERs, all doctors and health professionals must deal with multiple drug seekers trying to get them to prescribe them a little “somethin’ somethin”.  These are first or second hand, real life excuses or behaviors that drug seekers have used in the ERs, Urgent Cares, and clinics to try to obtain drugs:
 
Death of a generic loved one (when they are not dead, Grandfathers the most common)
Death of a wife (usually a living wife, ex-wife, or common-law has no knowledge of their death)
Death of a child (particularly tough to resist urge to punch seeker in face, but hasn’t happened…yet)
Sexual assault
Domestic violence
Pricking finger with needle to put blood in urine sample (makes it look like kidney stone)
Using child’s pain to obtain meds (again, resolve fading…fist rising…must not punch)
Stealing dying relatives' medications (Hospice patients, cancer patients especially.  One took the narcotic patch right off the dying relative for himself.)
 
These are just some of the more heinous examples above, the classic excuses are always still worth mentioning:  dog ate them, fell in toilet, fell in sink, fell in some wet area, fell in some dirty area, washed in the laundry, pharmacist is against me, wife/girlfriend/neighbor/mailman/etc is against me, lost it, was stolen, took too many because it wasn’t working, took too many because you are a terrible doctor and didn’t give me the medicine that works, another terrible doctor wouldn’t fill it because they are horrible and you are the greatest ever.  All of these are from personal examples.  All were confirmed to be fabrications.  90+ percent of these excuses are false, every time.  This is why it gets to be so heartbreaking.  It really takes your faith in humanity and grinds it up into bits.  And it’s getting worse.  Just yesterday from my writing of this, a gentleman told me that “it is your duty as a doctor to help people” when he was lying about his medication abuse.  They know the lines, and they use them.  It didn’t work by the way.
 
So, what to do in TEOTWAWKI.  Avoid.  Plain and simple.  Anyone on controlled substance meds should be weaned off immediately if they are in your group.  Off.  We will all have to figure out a way to live without them then, no time like the present.  Do NOT have any controlled substance medications in your possession.  If Ibuprofen and Acetaminophen don’t take the pain down, it will probably make you stronger.  Seriously, that is our advice.  The risk does not exceed the benefit in regard to these meds.  We don’t take them, we don’t have them…so why would we stock them?  Ask yourself the same question.
 
Okay, how do you spot the withdrawing seeker in a post-pharmacy world?  Withdrawal symptoms for the different medications are worth mentioning by category.  First, the pain medications.  Opiate withdrawal has the following classic symptoms:  in the hours after the last dose will come drug craving, anxiety, fear of withdrawal.  Then in a day to days will be:  anxiety, restlessness, insomnia, yawning, runny nose, watery eyes, sweating, stomach cramps, and small pupils.  In the days that follow to a week:  tremors, muscle spasms, vomiting, diarrhea, chills, goosebumps, and rapid heart beat.
 
Benzodiazepine withdrawal symptoms are similar, but different in some ways and timing:  rapid stopping of chronic benzo use can actually result in death.  Tremors, anxiety, hallucinations, negativity, psychosis and seizures can occur.  The scale and dependence of benzo use and abuse is truly staggering.  Many of these folks are your neighbors, relatives, and friends.  They have been taking Ativan, Xanax, Valium, Klonopin, Libruim, Tranxene, Restoril, Serax, ProSom, Dalmane, and Halcion for a long time now.  They are likely not abusing these drugs, but certainly are dependent and are not going to be happy and pleasant without these medications.  Anyone on more than 20 per month of these meds needs to wean down now and try to get off.  Again, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) does work for people and is highly recommended.
 
Stimulant withdrawal, specifically cocaine and amphetamines, can show withdrawal symptoms in:  negativity, lack of pleasure in things, fatigue, sleepiness, vivid dreams, insomnia, agitation, anxiety, depression, suicidal thoughts and actions, drug craving, and hunger.  As a society, we also provide stimulants to people regularly for their ADD and ADHD diagnoses, and the symptoms of withdrawal will be very similar to those of the illicit stimulants above.  These stimulant-withdrawal symptoms usually peak by two days and then decrease within two weeks, but can be the most dramatic and therefore dangerous when loosed near you and yours.
 
Many of these withdrawal symptoms will also be experienced by many “non-addicts” who are unprepared for a disaster.  Isolating yourselves for the first few weeks after any major disaster is certainly the best policy.  By 14 days, almost all types of acute drug withdrawal have ended physically.   Seekers will be dangerous in those first days, but remember that most seekers have up to a month of medication that they have available before they run out, some dealers could have much more than that.  The first two months all of us will be at risk to encounter and possibly be harmed by the drug seeker.  I can’t emphasize enough how far people who are addicts will go to try to obtain even a small amount of their drug of choice or any type of substitute.  Many of these people will rob, lie, con, steal and kill for drugs if given the chance, so continue your vigilance.  But most importantly, heed our sound advice: To reduce your risk,  do not keep these medication stored on your property.

JWR Adds: Dr. Bob is is one of the few consulting physicians in the U.S. who prescribes antibiotics for disaster preparedness as part of his normal scope of practice. His web site is: SurvivingHealthy.com.

Hello Mr. Rawles, 
I felt compelled to write in regarding Frank C's recent article, The Overnighters: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You, and share my experiences working in the non-profit world over the last four years.  While my experience is significantly different from Frank's, he is in my opinion right on the money.
 
I live and work in a northeastern state.  The state has a low population, is very rural, but has a massive "public assistance" community within its borders. In other words, lots of "social programs."  I am a die hard capitalist, gun-owner, conservative, Christian.  Not the best prepper, but I'm trying to change that.  About four years ago I began working for a non-profit, which was quite change from having been in the defense industry.  The operation is self-funded (operates as a business) so it fit with my personal beliefs.  The operation performs very basic services for area businesses, and pays people "piece rate" for each product produced.  In short, the harder they work, the more they make per hour.
 
How this relates to Frank's article is this: we have a great many "Overnighters" that "work" for us.  It is the same crowd.  They have been given everything, and they cannot fathom a world that does not include a taxpayer-funded check every month.  Being independent is not on their radar screen. If you try to explain the concept and they  go completely blank.
 
Many business owners might be able to relate to this, but many who read this blog may be surprised how, even in this economy, it is very hard to get people to show up, work a full day, and then repeat that on a regular basis.  We give jobs to anyone who wants one, regardless of background, past indiscretions, etc.  We are here for everyone.  People don't show up, barely give an excuse, and then expect to be put on the work schedule again, when it is convenient for them.
 
The smoke, drink, have fancy cell phones, and find it a major inconvenience to come to work occasionally, to fill in the gaps left by their "benefits."  Many of them are completely without shame, and state emphatically that the only reason they are there is because, "the state cut my check."  Many of them strategically work only the number of hours they can without upsetting the handouts.
 
These are the type of people who Frank mentions going door-to-door in his article.  When the checks and stamps dry up, these people will get ugly--very ugly.  What I have learned over the past four years is that this type of creature can exist anywhere. As I mentioned, this is a rural state, and the "city" I work in would not register as even a large town to most urbanites. But here they are.  The system has created them, and they have filled a massive population vacuum.  I live over an hour away, which is somewhat comforting, but these types of humans are even in the small towns of America, and they earnestly expect to be taken care of. Thanks, - Scott O.

Financial calamity can take many different forms.  The Brazilian saga of hyperinflation / depression / recovery from the 1980s leading to one of today’s most robust economies is a classic tale of overcoming adversity.  Argentina’s economic collapse in 2000-2001 followed by hyperinflation in 2002, debt repudiation and seizing foreign deposits is another story with a solid recovery afterwards.  The disastrous 20-year Japanese experiment with deflation and negative growth is at the other end of the spectrum.
Which will the US experience first?  And, how quickly will we feel the scorching fire of hyperinflation or the freezing blast of deflation?
The short answer is that today we should be preparing for a recession in the near future with actual deflation in certain sectors.  We also need to anticipate the possibility of a deflationary spiral into the “Great Correction.”

As the economy struggles through the next recession, we need to be alert for signals that the Federal Reserve has screwed up and overshot its goal of controlling deflation.  A big miss with too much monetary expansion and the US economy could lurch into hyperinflation with very little warning.
In JWR's novel Patriots, our heroes experience an occupation force of primarily European UN troops.  Today, that seems unlikely but only because the European countries are determined to make a bigger mess of their economies even more quickly than the US.  After all, politicians in Europe have over-promised for even longer than politicians in the US.  The cost of providing the European welfare state has proven far more expensive than forecast, and the bill is now past due.

Almost everybody watching the Euro crisis has concluded that Europe is headed straight into a major recession – regardless whether or how the Euro crisis is solved.  The recently mighty Euro has been steadily losing value to the US dollar and is no longer a candidate for a replacement reserve currency.  In fact, Euro-denominated assets, especially the government bonds of Greece, Italy, and Spain, are almost toxic.

Updated Collapse Scenario
Does that mean that the disaster scenario in Patriots needs to be updated?  No way.  In fact, all that matters is that Patriots provides a realistic scenario that could easily lead to the rapid collapse of infrastructure especially in large cities.  The story line makes the point that rational people need to be prepared for the worst and that working together is much better than going it alone.  The take-away message is about being prepared and not about the details of which camouflage pattern or what brand of battle rifles.  If those details stick in your mind, that’s great, but the real lesson is to think ahead and start planning before Schumer comes knocking.
In the meantime, we have to get on with our life in today’s real world.  The characters in Patriots had to deal with their particular environment; we have ours.  Each of us gets to deal with our jobs, our family and friends, and “our” government.
Keep in mind that how you define a problem can artificially constrain how you think about the solution.  If you imagine that the most likely problem is hyperinflation and soon, that framework might justify spending critical savings to stockpile supplies before prices skyrocketed.
But if, as I predict, the US will deal with several years of recession first, the heavy spender might use up critical savings needed to deal with an unexpected problem like major illness or loss of a job.  Also keep in mind that the frugal saver who does reasonably well in a recession may overlook or ignore the warning signals for hyperinflation and see the value of his savings evaporate in a few months or even weeks.

Being an International Banker
My first job out of business school was trading foreign currencies in Beirut for one of the largest American banks and then as branch manager in another Middle Eastern country. After several more job moves including working as the international treasurer for a Fortune 500 company, I was recruited to head up global treasury management for the largest bank in the US.  Eventually, I left the financial sector and got a real job running a company that manufactured products in the US.

Like many people I read the news headlines and generally ignore the daily ups and downs of the stock market.  Most of my attention goes to more technical articles following trends in currency swaps, forward currency transactions or futures, inter-bank lending rates, national bond offerings, and changes in credit default insurance rates.  Not very sexy stuff, but these details paint a clearer picture of world events than the sound bites carried on television news.

As a banker, I was paid to make bets on major currency movements and the direction of national economies.  Sometimes, I was just plain wrong and lost money.  Occasionally, I had the right trend or direction but was way off in the timing.  That also counted as a loss.  Fortunately enough of the bets paid off, and I kept my job.

Most of us may not recognize the reality, but today everyone in the United States is making a daily bet in the world’s foreign currency markets.  We are all international economic forecasters.  What happens in Greece or China or Japan has a direct impact on the US dollar, the US stock market, the rates on US savings accounts, the price we pay for bread, or the cost to fill up our Toyota, Hyundai, or Chevrolet.

Major Bets
You say, “Wait, I don’t even own stocks.  I’m sitting tight hoping that everything blows over.” My friend, that is a bet – a very big one.  You are betting on the status quo.  In fact, you are putting your livelihood and your savings on the line placing a number of bets at the casino every day.  By doing nothing, you are actually making the following very specific bets, for example:
a.)            The Euro-zone remains intact;
b.)            None of the European Club Med countries default;
c.)            Crude oil stays between $80 and $120/barrel, and the Middle East stays peaceful;
d.)            The Federal Reserve can and will keep interest rates between zero and 2% for at least two more years;
e.)            The Fed’s interventionist policies will keep the US from a recession in the next two years or at least until the presidential election is over;
f.)            The Muni bond crisis in the US will be postponed at least a year;
g.)            Obama will win his second term as President; and
h.)            Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker John Boehner will continue their ineffectual sparring with neither party making much ground in the 2012 elections.
The list could go on, but I think you see the point.  Taking no action is a gigantic sucker bet.
By the way, you also made the bet (correctly) that Obama would keep his word and that troop withdrawals from Iraq would proceed according to plan.  After all, everyone knows that Iraq and Afghanistan have been completely pacified and are capable of responsible self-rule without any assistance from the Evil Empire.  Further, there is absolutely nothing that could disrupt the steady supply of Middle Eastern oil to Europe and Asia – not even the Ayatollahs of Iran and the Straits of Hormuz.
When you placed those wagers, you were making the exact same bet that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is making, namely an ever-increasing federal deficit can be financed indefinitely by an ever-expanding supply of cheap credit.
Further, this surplus of credit, according to Keynes and all his disciples, will lead only to moderate but not excessive growth which will allow the US to solve all of its economic problems by the end of the second Obama administration. 

Bernanke is too old to have such faith in the Tooth Fairy, and so are you.

The European Mess
Each week for the last several months, the press has alternated with good news that the Euro crisis has been fixed once and for all with the following week’s announcement that some new catastrophe has derailed last week’s bailout plan or solution or new treaty or whatever.  My personal bet is that at least one of Club Med countries will default on its bonds in the next six months.  Frankly, it doesn’t matter whether the first to go is Greece, Italy or Spain.

The most likely consequence of any major national default is that this will be the final trigger point for a long-term recession in Europe with repercussions in the US economy and the rest of the world.  Even without a specific trigger, Europe will slide inevitably into recession generally considered to be two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
How likely is it that a major recession in Europe will lead to another recession here?  Most economists and central bankers think it will happen quickly once the house of cards called the European Union starts to tumble.  In fact, many of the most common measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research already point to an extended decline here in the US in real income, actual vs. reported unemployment, retail sales, and industrial production as well as other key measures.
Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner believe in the linkage, and the Federal Reserve has already taken extraordinary steps to delay the inevitable collapse in Europe just to postpone the recession here.

International Monetary “Easing”
On November 30, 2011, the Federal Reserve issued a press release announcing greater availability and lower pricing for “temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements.”  What really happened is that Bernanke, without the approval of Congress, agreed to make the Federal Reserve a lender of last resort to the rapidly failing commercial banks in Europe.  These banks have enormous exposures to various European national bonds, and the Fed is effectively taking on that liability.  You read it correctly - the commercial banks.  The US taxpayer is now backstopping the shareholders of foreign banks.
A press release announcing a done deal means that there were weeks or months of intense, behind-the-scenes negotiations as well as position papers and PowerPoint presentations detailing the consequences of opening up that credit window.  These documents have not been and probably never will be released.  Where is Wikileaks when you really need it?
Will these new credit facilities change the outcome?  Not really.  Utilization of the credit facilities may slightly delay the starting date for the European recession, but the sad truth is that the US government and the US taxpayer is now much more exposed to a commercial banking collapse in Europe.
We thought that the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) had occurred here in 2008 and 2009 to avoid the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns and the collapse of the US banking system and AIG.  Not satisfied, Bernanke is now offering bail-out money to Europe’s banks.

The Euro Summit and the “New Treaty”
Clearly the 27 Euro-zone leaders believed that a major recession would be the best outcome they could expect from the spreading Euro crisis unless they took extraordinary action.  The 27 heads of state participated in an all-nighter in Brussels on December 8 and 9.  The result is that member states have been asked (blackmailed?) to ratify an amendment to the European Union treaty setting new mandatory economic guidelines.
The most important requirement is that each country must take active measures to reduce “structural” deficits to no more than 3% per year.  This means drastically reducing the maximum amount by which any country can outspend its net tax revenues.  This was the non-negotiable demand that German Chancellor Merkel imposed on all the member countries at the Euro Summit.
What the Germans wanted and got was agreement that member countries would reduce their deficits by immediately cutting government spending and simultaneously raising tax revenues.  “Cutting government spending” is Euro-speak for firing a significant number of government workers and reducing funding for government programs.

In addition to cutting public sector employment, these measures will lead to a further loss of jobs in the private sector.  The obvious consequence all across Europe is greater unemployment, a further loss of consumer confidence, a continuing reduction in consumer spending, and a corresponding decrease in capital expenditures by businesses.  To that recipe for economic disaster, stir in the simultaneous requirement to raise tax revenues.

Tie Your Hands
With this toxic combination how can the EU member countries avoid an outright recession?  Not possible.  This was the reality that every head of state knew in advance of the Brussels summit and had already accepted. Even more amazing is that all of these government leaders also agreed to keep from using the conventional Keynesian tools for fending off or turning around a recession including reducing taxes or increasing government spending.  They have tied their hands behind their backs even before the fight started.  You have to ask was this  the epitome of stupid politics, or were these leaders even more afraid of the inevitable economic catastrophe from a collapse of the Euro? How long before this new treaty is effective – if ever?  According to a Reuters article, French President Sarkozy admitted that the earliest expected ratification was June, 2012.  Obviously, the “big rescue” is not a “quick rescue.”  In the meantime both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have placed almost all European countries on credit watch, often the first step before a down-grade in credit rating and a major increase in borrowing costs.

Too Little and Too Late
Many commentators have opined that the simmering Euro crisis will boil over long before the new treaty can be approved.  The summit got great press coverage, and the Euro leaders got to pat themselves on the back.  But, an honest assessment has to be too little real substance and way too late to do any good.
Put the pieces together.  Europe’s leaders have basically given up and are reconciled to a large and extended recession beginning no later than the first half of 2012 along with a big jump in public and private sector unemployment plus major increases in national borrowing costs.  By accepting Germany’s terms, the members of the EU have also agreed in advance to a very slow recovery from the inevitable recession.  No reason for optimism here.

The Toilet Bowl Spiral
First, what is the practical definition of deflation?  Second, why is it such a big deal?
The official definition of deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services typically measured by a decline in the Consumer Price Index.  In other words, real inflation drops below zero measured against the prices of a consumer basket of goods and services.  The major concern is that deflation can get out of hand and lead to a deflationary spiral.
In this type of downward spiral, the vicious circle starts as businesses try to maintain or increase demand by lowering prices (think Christmas sales).  If lower prices fail to stimulate demand, businesses have no choice except to lower production or reduce retail inventory depending on where they are in the delivery chain.  Manufacturers fire excess workers and cancel any plans to increase plant capacity.  Retailers place smaller than normal orders and leave empty shelf space.

Unemployment goes up, real income goes down, real estate prices continue to plummet, tax revenues at all levels go down, and the deficit gets even bigger.  City, state, and federal governments – especially since they have already borrowed too much money – are finally forced to cut non-essential services and begin reducing essential services such as fire and police.
And, the municipal bond market takes a big hit as several major cities and one or more states default on interest payments and fail to pay vendors.
Then, even more government entities are forced to cut more public employees but usually not near the top where it would help.  Unemployment goes up again; aggregate income goes down even further; consumer borrowing drops more; consumer demand drops faster and further; and prices drop yet again to chase decreasing demand.

The Spiral Continues
Businesses create no new jobs.  There are no new housing starts.  New automobile production gets cut again.  As the spiral continues, businesses have to reduce their payroll even more by firing the most recently hired, by eliminating all entry-level jobs, and by firing the most expensive hourly workers – usually the oldest ones.  They even start firing middle management.  Just for the record, the last thing they cut is executive compensation.
There are two really important reasons for understanding why deflation is such a big deal – especially right now.  The first is that once this vicious cycle gets a good start, it is really hard to stop until it bottoms out like it did in the Great Depression.  Second, and maybe even more important today is the realization that deflation is at the current intersection of a massive academic ego and partisan politics.

Bernanke’s Ego and Obama’s Political Ambitions
Assuming that the Republican Party can eventually nominate any plausible candidate, even Waffle House Romney, Obama knows that the most important issue in his re-election campaign will be the economy.  Unlike Europe’s leaders, Obama cannot afford to give up and accept the inevitable recession unless he is also willing to be a one-term president.  He will do everything he can and support any idea no matter how far-fetched that has the slimmest hope of injecting good news into the gloomy economic picture. But Bernanke’s motivation is even more dangerous.  Ben Bernanke graduated from Harvard College and earned his Ph.D. from MIT.  He taught at Stanford Business School and NYU before becoming a tenured professor at Princeton.  His entire academic career focused on the policy decisions leading to the Great Depression.  In numerous papers and articles, he has expounded his theory that uncontrolled deflation triggered the Great Depression and delayed recovery.

While at Princeton, he was appointed a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in 2002.  He became Chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors in 2005.  Bush nominated him as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, and he was reappointed to that position by Obama in 2009.  He is now able to treat the US economy as one giant laboratory in which to test his academic theories.
Nine years ago, then-Fed Governor Bernanke gave a speech called “Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here.”  Read Bernanke's words and weep:

"Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it.  If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation."

The Magic Printing Presses
In fact, Bernanke has been pushing and pulling the economic policy levers in an unprecedented way since he became Fed Chairman under Bush.  Even with access through the Freedom of Information Act, the public may never know who really said what to whom as the federal government struggled with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the almost bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, the catastrophic melt-down of the sub-prime mortgage market, and the bailout of the banks that were “too big to fail.” What is clear is that the US tumbled into a recession, and the Fed under Bernanke’s direction did everything possible to contain it.  Some economists argue that it would have been better to allow capitalism to run its course, let the failures occur, and set the stage for a real recovery. The recession that started in 2008 continued in 2009, and true to his fervently held beliefs Bernanke injected massive amounts of money into the US economy, especially after Obama became President.  We can debate whether the bailouts were necessary or even beneficial, but for right now, that issue is irrelevant.  The world learned a crucial lesson about the way that Bernanke and Obama will handle any major economic crisis.

Avoid deflation at all costs!  Roll the presses!
The US Treasury has the national mints, but the Federal Reserve has printing presses.  Some of the presses are real intaglio printers used to print currency, and they are churning out new Federal Reserve funny money in larger denominations and greater quantities 24/7.  But the really dangerous ones are the virtual presses that put digital money on balance sheets without any intervening creation of goods or services.
One obvious example is “Quantitative Easing.”  This term deliberately obscures the real meaning.  Translated it means that the Federal Reserve purchases US government bonds from private holders (e.g., commercial banks) and pays for them by simply making digital entries in the selling bank’s account at the Fed.  No new goods or services.  No Congressional approval.  More money in the system.
Let’s admit that the whole world – China, Europe, the oil producing countries, and the US – face recession and possibly deflation.  We know for sure that Bernanke is self-righteous in his view that with enough money he will reverse deflation and avoid the deflationary spiral.  And, Bernanke believes that history will lavish great praise on the economist turned super-hero who saves the world.

Near-Term Forecast
Europe, will continue the inevitable slide into recession despite the best efforts of the European Central Bank (with no printing presses and no authority to manufacture money) and the Federal Reserve (with all printing presses working overtime).
On a slightly slower timetable, the US will slide back into recession as well.  Bleating like a lost little lamb, Obama will “encourage” the Democrats to create jobs, to tax the rich, to save the unions, to preserve jobs for public employees, to keep their pensions intact, and to preserve at all costs every single entitlement program, such as Social Security.
The Republicans will continue the full range of political brinkmanship.  Compromise is unlikely.  Nothing significant will happen to create jobs, reduce spending, or actually change the debt level for at least a decade.  In other words, same old stuff except that the government will officially acknowledge what we already knew in our pocketbooks.  The US is in another recession less than two years after the federal government declared a victory over the last one.

With the prospect that a back to back recession could easily lead to deflation and the dreaded spiral, Super-Hero Bernanke without any congressional oversight will be busy doing his magic.  The money supply will increase.  Interest rates will stay down.  Even so, commercial and consumer borrowing will drop.  Real estate will drop even further.  Frustrated because the story-book ending is not working out, Bernanke will pour even more money into the system.  After all, Ben runs the risk of losing his super-hero cape.
In summary, until this phase of Bernanke’s grand experiment with the American people runs its course in 24 to 36 months, you can count on three things:
1.)            Recession with a 30% or more chance of significant deflation.
2.)            Overcast conditions with no glimmer of sunshine from a grid-locked Congress.
3.)            Heavy precipitation in the form of money and credit raining down from the Federal Reserve.

This is the good news, and I fervently hope that we get a two-year run!

Black Swan Theory
The bad news is that the economic environment could go from recession to much worse very quickly if any one of several unexpected events occurred.  The “Black Swan Theory” holds that highly unpredictable events with low probability have a major impact often because we have overlooked such events and have ignored the huge impact of these supposedly rare occurrences.
For example, we can see that the list of possible disasters might include a spike in energy prices, another major terrorist attack on US soil, North Korea flexing its nuclear arsenal, the bankruptcy of the US Postal Service, or another major conflict in the Middle East.
Precisely because these events seem possible or even likely, they are not Black Swans.  But, if we think outside the box, we can speculate on events that might change everything – at least in their immediate sphere.  For example:
1.)            President Obama decides not to run for a second term, and Hillary Clinton becomes the 45th President.
2.)            North Korea offers to reunite with South Korea, and South Korea destroys its own economy in the process.  This leads to a collapse of the Asian “Tigers” in a mirror of the Euro crisis.
3.)            Iranian Hezbollah agents from Lebanon set off a small-scale nuclear device in Tel Aviv.  Israel retaliates against Syria and Iran.
4.)            The housing bubble in China explodes leading to full scale riots in six to ten cities that are quelled only with massive military force.  Chinese exports decline; imports, especially of raw materials, stop almost completely.
5.)            The national referendums on the new EU treaty trigger bloody rioting in Greece followed by popular uprisings in Spain and Portugal reminiscent of the Arab Spring in Egypt and Libya.  The Euro dies a painful death bringing down major commercial banks and private sector companies.
6.)            King Abdullah is assassinated, the Allegiance Council of the House of Saud is unable to name a successor, warring factions take over the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior, and oil shipments stop.
These ugly events almost qualify as Black Swans, but the fact that we can conceive of them and have some idea of their impact might take them out of the category.  You have to imagine something even more unpredictable and more capable of sweeping change.  You will know it when you see it.

Near-Term Conclusions
Increased self-reliance is the best plan to get you and your family through the next two to three years.  For that short period, the US dollar will be the safe haven currency – not gold or silver.  Individuals, corporations, and governments around the world will decide to hold greenbacks and not local currencies or hard assets.
In fact, one possible explanation for the huge drop in gold in the last several months despite the Euro-crisis on the front pages is that major gold investors have already concluded that recession is the near-term problem not hyperinflation.

Study the SurvivalBlog “List of Lists,” and plan your expenditures carefully.  Look for sales and discounts.  Smart retailers have already figured out that consumers have become deal conscious and realize that retail prices have to drop to get customers in the door.
If at all possible, avoid taking on more debt other than student loans (just the opposite advice if hyperinflation were on the immediate horizon).

Given any reasonable opportunity, get out of an urban or suburban mortgage.  Even on an after-tax basis, renting makes more sense than owning.  Commercial and residential real estate will take another big drop in the next two years.
Before signing any contract extending more than 60 to 90 days, make sure that you are protected against wild price swings and unusual government delays of any sort.
Be prepared to dump digital cash and digital assets, i.e., bank deposits and brokerage accounts, on very short notice.
Have you been putting off a decision about relocation?  If you already live in a major urban area in the West like Denver, Phoenix, or Cheyenne, you are much better off than if your job keeps you in Cleveland or Harrisburg.  Use this window to visit some of the best candidates on your list.
If you decide to purchase silver dimes and take possession, don’t be surprised to see silver drop even lower before gold and silver surge past their previous highs.
Now is the time to develop additional skills that might be marketable in tough times and to look for financially secure employers.  Plan ahead for the consequences if one of the major bread winners in your family were to lose their job.
Even in the middle of the recession, keep a vigilant eye on the early symptoms of hyperinflation.  Anticipate a Black Swan event.  Be prepared to implement Plan B instantly.

Make a Plan B
Let’s assume that my conclusion regarding the near future is a good working forecast and that the next two years are bad but not ugly.  Even so, each of us has to be prepared to change our direction and actions on the spot.  In my experience, the best way to do this is to have a genuine contingency plan or “Plan B” worked out in advance.
Start with the assumption that some aspects of your plan will not work or will be just plain wrong.  Once you have developed a plan and worked out the implementation, changing that plan to fit the circumstances that unfold is much easier and quicker than doing a Plan B from scratch.  Unless you need to plan only for yourself, the other great benefit is that family or friends or members of your prep group are all on the same page.  Do the discussion before the crisis.
Although it may not be a part of your action steps, I recommend that your Plan B specifically address possible trigger points and that you get buy-in to take action as soon as certain trigger points are reached.  Even during the next two years of recession, an abrupt turn to hyperinflation is a real possibility.

• Be alert to the early warning signs of hyperinflation.
• Have your money out of the banks before the lines of angry depositors form.
• Buy gas or diesel and storage containers before prices take off.
• Practice packing and know how long it will take and what you really can carry.
• Get home or bring family home while airlines are still flying.
• Be prepared to leave Dodge City near the front of the convoy.

JWR:
This television news segment was disturbing: Should HOAs restrict solar panel use? They cited "architectural standards."

The family made the mistake of challenging the authority of the homeowner association (HOA) to pre-approve all changes (including tone of roof shingles, type of planted grasses, whether or not RVs can be parked on your property, et cetera) and impose their notion of right and good on you and your house, at your expense. HOAs should reduce the market value of a house by 40% at least, IMHO, for anyone contemplating surviving a grid-down, phones-down, plumbing-down situation.

Why would anyone subject their home to such meddling? Cheers, - Karl K.

JWR Replies: I've always advised my consulting clients to avoid buying land inside a HOA. The typical restrictions on livestock and gardens are ridiculous. Those alone is reason enough to avoid HOA-ruled developments. I started warning about HOAs and CC&Rs in the early days of SurvivalBlog, such as this piece from 2005: Zoning Laws, HOAs, and CC&Rs as Criteria for Choosing Your Retreat Locale. Parenthetically, I also included a cautionary description of HOA busybodies in my latest novel "Survivors: A Novel of the Coming Collapse". In that fictional description, the HOA committee had to be pushed out of control in order for large scale gardening to commence.

The bottom line: I honestly believe that it would take a full scale socioeconomic collapse for most HOA committees to even consider loosening their "visible from the street" appearance standards. So even in the midst of a 1930s-style depression, you'd be under their thumb.

Dear Mr. Rawles,

I just finished your novel novel "Survivors". It was a good book and it spells out a lot of things that might happen. I have been an avid reader of your books and materials for some time. I would like to point out that Alaska is a better survivor island than many of the other Western States.

First: Alaska does rely on products being imported but it has the capacity to manufacture its own fuel. Presently we have three refineries within our state but they concentrate on the manufacture of Aviation Gas because it has the highest profit. We could seek to change our production to diesel and to automobile gasoline if we were cut off. We also have geothermal heat sources and large deposit of coal that we would be able to use as fuels. We have active wood resource use and technology involving wood boilers.

Second: Anchorage would be toast. It is kind of known as Los Anchorage. It has a high Asian/Pacific Islander/Filipino population mixed with greenies (emigres from California) that would wipe themselves out quickly. The rest of the state would have increased resources with that group roughly taking itself out. Those that would be left would be roving gangs but for the most part would not leave their central location. People would probably seek to cut the roads out in and out of anchorage and this would be easy with the destruction of a couple of bridges. Anchorage would be isolated and would be a death trap.

Third: In a "Crunch" type scenario things that have restricted Alaska for a long time like the Jones Act would be null. Alaska presently can not direct export its resources to other foreign powers. Alaska has a significant war chest in its constitutional reserve that is largely composed of stocks, and real estate. Alaska could possibly pull some very quick trade deals with other PacRim countries for import/exports.

Fourth: Military in Alaska. We have a large military presence here and those people would follow military procedures. Many would be called back to the states or would move back with their families. Once that happened our population would be more sustainable. Many military folks would stay. Alaska would be the home to the stryker divisions, airborne and quick response divisions that could easily protect its borders. We have tactical bombers, missile defense and F22 Raptor fighters that would provide for supports.

Fifth: Long term Alaskans- Would easily slowly retract from the rest of the US. We produce a lot of gold and precious metals and would be able to produce a lot more if Federal Restrictions ended. 66% of the state[land area] is Federally controlled. The lack of an operating over the shoulder Uncle Sugar would produce a lot of mom and pop gold mining that would be highly profitable in the crunch.

Sixth: The amount of salmon and other basic food stuffs could be concentrated on. Delta and the Matsu valley have the capabilities to produce enough potatoes, barley and vegetables that with the new[ly-reduced] population and regular dynamics we would be okay. We actually built storage facilities for these products that are not in use. Global Warming is a reality and Alaska has longer growing seasons with capabilities that would allow it survive. We would not face starvation as mentioned in the book. Many in Alaska are preppers and I believe that the average household in Alaska has between two and four months worth of food. Things like Sailor Boy pilot bread and other products that last for long without refrigeration are found in greater quantities up here.

Seventh: There are some Alaskans who would die quickly in the aftermath of TEOTWAWKI but if Alaska was not completely nuked it would have circles of influence that would try to keep things in check. There are several very active groups of people who would seek to take quick steps if it happened. They are here and are prepared. Alaska's constitution is different from US constitution and it is much more connected with the original constitution and not all of the interpretation and missteps that our Framing document has taken.

I liked your novel very much. I think that you should investigate the capabilities of modern compound bow technology. Bows are much more accurate and deadly than they have ever been. They have the ability to engage targets at ranges greater than 100 yards. Sincerely, - Thomas K.

James:
I got one of the USDA's surveys, too, and had an interesting discussion with whoever responded to their "contact us" email address. I noted that my paper form claimed very clearly that response was required by law, but the web site version of the survey said it was voluntary. So I asked which was true, and was told that Public Law 105-113 "authorizes the [USDA] to conduct an agricultural census every five years," and explained the form was to help them save time in some further census process. The response said nothing about whether my response was required or not, though it did (of course) say the law required all information from respondents to be kept confidential, specifically that it "cannot be used for purposes of taxation, investigation, or regulation." It ended with a warm fuzzy statement about how important agriculture is to America (for some definition of "agriculture", I guess).

So I replied, saying they hadn't answered my question, which I repeated. Their response said, "To try to completely answer your question, the Census of Agriculture, conducted every five years, is a survey that by law requires a response from operators who are involved in agriculture. Though other NASS surveys do not by law require individuals to respond, NASS is required by law to conduct these surveys and publish statistics from the information gathered."

You'll note this still doesn't answer the question, though it does say I need to respond if ever they come knocking with actual census forms. In my emails I also mentioned that the questions ask about "land that is in government programs", in the description prior to question 1. All other questions depend on this answer to question 1. I own "land with the potential for agricultural production" (kind of vague, don't you think?) but none of it is part of any agricultural government programs. It's subject to property tax, emergency services can presumably access it without penalty in time of emergency, and I guess it could be subject to seizure under eminent domain, all of which means it's probably part of one government program or another. But, I don't have a government loan on it or equipment I use on it, I don't get subsidies, so I call it "not a government program", and put "0 acres". All my other responses were thereby zero, as they all depend on how much acreage I operate. Regards, - E.K.

James,
After reading the recent article about Driving, Post-TEOTWAWKI: I believe there is some sound G.O.O.D. advice. However, assuming unhindered travels will allow rolling stores of survival gear to pass through any measurable distance unchallenged, is a dangerous assumption. The writer cites experience traveling in a military convoy with hardened, well armed vehicles. But for realistic, civilian style convoys, the dangers are multiplied by lack of experienced scout personnel and soft equipment. If one has sustained an extended bug in and has a supportive neighborhood, that may still remain the best option if bug out was not initiated within the first 24-48 hours. However, in the event of a national emergency, the thirst of our government to sustain control, likely will make a small civilian convoy a prize valued by government agents as much as by any band of rogues. When plotting the road traveled I would advise taking note of the locations of every National Guard Armory and bypassing those locations as far as possible. Roadblocks initiated by trained Guardsmen, with combat experience in hostile acquisition and checkpoints will also put the hurt on your evacuation plans. You and your family will be acquired and supplies confiscated. Best practice is still pre-positioning of supplies allowing for light, quick, and hopefully low-profile travel should that become your decision to do a deferred bug out. For Liberty, - P.T.