H7N9: What should I do?

As of the recent date of writing this article, the CDC does not have any new or special recommendations for the U.S. public at this time regarding H7N9. There is currently no vaccine to prevent H7N9. CDC will keep you updated. If you live outside of the U.S., search the WHO web site often. Stay informed.

Since H7N9 is not spreading easily from person to person at this time, CDC does not recommend that people delay or cancel trips to China. The World Health Organization also is watching this situation closely and does not recommend any travel restrictions.

CDC advises travelers to China to take some common sense precautions, like not touching birds or other animals and washing hands
often. Poultry and poultry products should be fully update its advice for travelers if the situation in guidance is available at Avian Flu (H7N9) in China.
cooked. CDC will China changes. This

The foregoing content is provided and maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Okay, I'm on notice, but What should I be doing now to get prepared?

Here are some Helpful thoughts and actions to consider being taken now, to assist your families in being prepared for this next epidemic in the making.
In our home, we are preparing for this H7N9 virus, and getting a two month jumpstart on our normal farm and home routines schedule. One of those ramped up to today instead of waiting until July, is making my family's annual batch of Sambucus nigra Elderberry Tincture, now.
But what is that, and why use that? So glad you asked!

We use it routinely as a supplement, because consuming Elderberry Tincture made with Sambucus nigra elderberries, is an effective alternative to Western pharmaco-medicine. This supplement has shown very positive results in preventing virus's from clinging to the body's healthy cells and aiding the passage of the virus out of the body, all naturally! The commercially made product, marketed as Sambucol, blunts the haemaglutinin spikes on the outside of viruses and stops them from entering cells where they reproduce, causing the cell to explode and allows the virus to continue invading the body. Also, in vitro study, its results has also shown Sambucol to be effective in increasing the production of four inflammatory cytokines, which are effective in boasting your body's immunity, suggesting that the intake of this supplement may have an immuno-stimulatory effect and therefore be worth taking all year round to prevent flu and other viral disease.

Besides, with all this research findings to prove its effectiveness, my maternal Yugoslavian Great-Great Grandmother made Elderberry Tincture for her family and passed on these recipes for us to use and bless US Centers for others with good health for future generations. There are many clinical research trials on the product called Sambucus available on the web for you to additionally search and read more for yourself. Here are a couple: Read what the Israeli research says! 99% EFFECTIVE!

"Retroscreen Virology, a leading British medical research institute associated to Queen Mary College, University of London, announced that Sambucol was at least 99% effective against the avian flu virus, H5N1, and in cell cultures significantly neutralized the infectivity of the virus."

Great! So Can I make my own? and, if so, How do I make my own? Again, glad you asked! YES!

How to make Homemade Sambucus nigra, Elderberry Tincture

Note: Not recommended for administration to Children or alcoholics, due to the high alcohol content.
Materials and Ingredients needed:
6 pint mason jars with lids and ring bands 1 1/2 lbs. of Sambucus nigra, Elderberries 2 fifth bottles of any inexpensive brand, unflavored 80 proof vodka
Order or buy the dried elderberries from a reliable health food store, or from an online source. Herbalcom.com is an inexpensive
source to consider. Amazon.com also has several suppliers available.

Fill a large stainless steel stock pot 1/2 full of potable water, and bring the water to a boil. Carefully submerge all 6 pint sized mason jars, lids, and ring bands, and one stainless steel serving spoon in the boiling water, and set your timer to boil for 15 minutes. Turn off your heat source. Carefully remove the jars with clean tongs, pour off any water in them and lightly shake off
the lids and band rings of water, and allow these to cool to room temperature on a fresh clean towel, with all flat surfaces facing up, to dry.

Using the sterilized spoon, scoop straight into the mylar bag they are packaged in and fill each of the cooled sterilized jars with elderberries up to the 1/3rd full mark. Set the berry filled jars aside.
Now pour the 80 proof vodka into the jars to fill up the jars remaining 2/3rd space, to near totally full. Leave a sparse 1/8th inch head space at the top of the jar unfilled.
Then seal up the jars, by placing on the clean lids and apply the band rings snugly. Place them gently in a cabinet or, on a shelf that is out of any source of direct light and also away from any heat source. They will stay here for 14 days. You can keep the berries in the jars for longer, but 14 days will be the minimum adequate time for the berries to finish soaking in the vodka. Take the jars in hand and once a day shake up the jars contents very well. During this osmotic process that is taking place over the 14 days, the elderberries will be taking up the alcohol and successively extracting off the berries medicinal anti-viral properties into the liquid, to give you a quality finished product of tincture of the berries.

After 14 or more days, (but never longer than 21 days), use a sieve strainer to separate the berries from the juice caught into a clean bowl. Press down on the berries in the sieve strainer with your spoon, to get all of the juice from them into the bowl of tincture.

Finally, pour your filtered elderberry tincture back into the jars and place the rinsed clean lids back on and tighten the ring bands well. Label the jars with contents and date. There is no need to heat or pressure seal the jars like you would in canning. In fact, a heating process used on this tincture would kill the anti-viral properties of it. Your tincture should keep for storage and use for a few years, as long as it is stored in a cool, dry location. The vodka is also the long term preservative medium in this recipe. You now have your own homemade Elderberry tincture to begin using.
Okay, now while that recipe is being turned into usable tincture, you may want to also create this temporary use syrup, which has a "no wait time", to consume it for some protection of boasting your immunity with a ready-made homemade supplement. It will get you through an unexpected "viral flu attack" season, or again, through the period of time while waiting for the more anti-viral potent tincture to age for use.

Homemade Elderberry Syrup
Note: can be considered for use of children over 24 months of age. Raw Honey should never be administered to children under the age of 2 years.

2 cups dried Sambucus nigra elderberries 1 quart of boiling water 1/4 cup raw honey 1/4 lemon juice
Put the elderberries in a non-reactive metal or glass saucepan, add the boiling water and cover the pan and leave it out on the stove or counter to soak overnight. The next day, low simmer the berries for 30 minutes, set aside to cool a little, then put the mixture in a food processor or blend them.
Once blended well, add the honey and lemon juice. Cool, then pour into a clean mason jar or dark glass bottle. Store this in the refrigerator and use the syrup daily.
Here, I offer other important considerations to take to help boost and prepare the human body's immune system in protecting it from viruses, and other physical and logistical preparations to make and consider for your family to do now, don't dawdle!

1. Adults, and teens, start taking 2000 UI per day (one pill) of Vitamin D3, and extra Vit C. consumption.
Note: The Fat soluble vitamins, which are vitamins A,D,E & K can be toxic to your body organs if you take dosages past the recommended daily allowances.

2. Begin to increase that dosage US, to 4000 UI per day (two pills) of Vitamin D3, only for the duration of the epidemic.

3. Also start taking one tablespoon of Elderberry Tincture, per day and continue to do so, or make the Elderberry syrup and begin using it now, and until the viral epidemic is cleared by the CDC or becomes non-life threatening in the your region.

4. Note: There is a non-alcoholic version of Sambcus available for small children, Nature's Answer Sambucus nigra Black Elder Berry Extract Kids Formula, just look for Sambucus nigra at your local health store, or order some online now. Don't wait until the virus is reported in the US, because it will become scarce or totally unavailable when the virus starts spreading to our country's geographical direction.

5. Prepare to not leave your home once the virus has entered into your geographical region. Consider enforcing a rule in your own homes, of no outside human contact, other than with those staying quarantined inside of your own household or property gate. Consider options for your work outside of the home. Consider having any normal prescheduled farm or home need deliveries of animal feed, fuel, hay, or supplies done now, instead of later.
A self imposed protective quarantine or closing off your property to others is strongly advised if this virus becomes epidemic and deadly. Bookmark and Check your state dept. of health and the CDC web sites daily to see where the virus is being transmitted from and moving to, so you will know to effectuate this protective quarantine of your family.

6. Do not handle mail or packages delivered by the mail carriers or from delivery carriers during this self imposed quarantine.

7. Dehydration is caused due to loss of body fluids by high fever and sweating, in loss of respiratory secretions associated with respiratory infections, with nausea, which causes vomiting and with diarrhea, which are all showing to be significant symptoms of this virus, that can quickly become life threatening if you are not prepared to immediately counter their effects of the body and actively treat them. Children and infants have much less body mass, and if they develop any of these symptoms and continue having them excessively for prolonged periods, over 4 hours, you should seek emergent medical help.

For the whole family's use, have extra potable water stored for use, store Pedialyte, Extra Formula, Gatorade powders, Tylenol,(acetaminophen), Aspirin and otc anti-diarrheals and remember to get on hand extra of any medications you are already prescribed to take if the Virus jumps from Asia to the routinely. Procure and store several boxes of disposable nitrile gloves, kleenex tissues, extra toilet paper, disposable towels, disposable eating utensils and plates and large garbage type plastic bags for trash disposal use.

8. Stay Home and away from crowds of people. If you must absolutely go out into the general public due to emergency needs which cannot be met at home during this epidemic, you will need to wear N95 masks and gloves at all times, with long sleeves and long pants, cover your body up as much as possible, as this flu is transmitted by human contact on any surface contact made by carriers of this virus. Don't hug, kiss, or shake hands. Disrobe immediately upon returning to your home from the outside world, disrobe in the garage or carport, and then bag up your soiled clothes. Discard the disposable mask and then take off and dispose of the gloves, into a bag lined lidded bucket placed outside of your home. Wash your clothing separately from others in your household, in hot soapy water and wash your face and hands, better yet, go take a hot shower, wash your hair, and add the towels you use to the washing machine with your dirty clothing. Don't forget to disinfect your car wheel, and mobile phone, and seats and floor board and mats.

Again, make sure you have ample supplies that you will need to use, on hand in your home, your vehicles, at your work place, as well as ample food stocks and water set aside in every number of the locations you may decide you need to move from or go to.

9. Make provisions for bagging up or burning your household trash. Do not handle your curb-side waste containers that have been handled by contracted disposal companies.

10. Take special precautions to wash your hands often during the day with soap and water, before and after going shopping for your food at the grocery, wipe off cans and packaging before you bring them into your home from your vehicle. Wash up after handling any produce or food imported from other outside countries, and after handling any food preparation tools. Especially be cautious after touching any live animals. Do not let your pets have free run outside of your property gates. Use meticulous washing after using public restrooms. Use a paper towel to touch a public restroom door to exit it. Wash surface areas with diluted bleach water mixed at a 10:1 ratio in a spray bottle. Don't forget to wipe down your phone receiver often and computer mouse and keyboard.

I am a holistic medicine-practicing RN, and wife to a MD. I have No affiliations with any companies mentioned in this article other than purchasing some of their quality products for our home use, nor have I merited by any free products or compensation for the recommendations of their products. Also, you are responsible for what you consume into your own body, thus I am not advocating intake of any substance to which you have not thoroughly researched for yourself. As with any human consumption, allergies to substances need to be heeded and avoided in the ingredients noted in any of these recipes, if you are known to have allergic food reactions. Dosages of alternative products made yourself need to be titrated individually and according to the
products used and to your body weight and age.

I pray that this information will be fruitful to you and will assist you and your family, in being prepared for the next coming epidemic.
GodSpeed to your Health Preparations and May HE Bless you and Shelter your family with Protections from this Deadly Disease!

Consider the implications of some recent events in America:

• The entire city of Boston is locked down under the equivalent of martial law, and house-to-house searches are conducted in one neighborhood without warrants. No uproar. No publicized post facto inquiries.
• John Corzine is not prosecuted for stealing more than a billion dollars from farmers and ranchers at MF Global. Nary a peep from the mainstream media.
• An Out-of-state "Marketplace Fairness Act" sales tax bill is ramrodded through the Senate. No uproar.
• The Fast and Furious scandal results in NO high-level dismissals from the BATFE or Justice Department, even though it was clear that it was ordered from the top. Few people are asking the President: What did he know and when did he know it? No uproar.
• Multiple Benghazi Cover-Ups. No huge Iran-Contra type congressional hearings. No dismissals.
• Asset Forfeiture by the Department of Homeland Security has become institutionalized. Hardly noticed.
• Justice Department snooping of Associated Press journalists' phone records. No uproar.
• The Obama administration intentionally makes the sequester budget cuts as painful as possible by slowing down air traffic control, in a grandstanding move. No uproar.
• Attorney General Eric Holder threatens the State of Kansas for daring to assert its sovereignty. No uproar.
• An amnesty deal for illegal border-crossers is negotiated in the Senate back rooms with a mixture of bribes and arm-twisting, and it now awaits a perfunctory debate and a floor vote. No public outcry.
• Meanwhile, Legitimate hard-working, law-abiding refugees (homeschoolers) who properly applied for visas face deportation. This gets barely any notice in the mainstream press.
  
• A jury finds a late-term abortionist guilty of multiple murders and he is handed a life sentence. Hardly mentioned by the mainstream press.
• Bitcoin's main banking interface (Mt. Gox) has its assets seized by the Department of Homeland Security. No mainstream news banner headlines. No uproar.
• Most blatantly, there were revelations of systematic targeting of conservative and Jewish groups by the IRS,--perhaps as many as 500 groups. At last there is some indignant bleating heard, but only because mainstream press deems it "newsworthy." Few people are asking the President: What did he know and when did he know it?
• And as all of these monumental, riveting events are going on, what is the most sought after news story by Americans querying Google, Bing, and Yahoo search engines? Angelina Jolie's hooters.

So much for enjoying "The most ethical and transparent administration in history."

Eleven years ago, when the Department of Homeland Security was formed, were were promised that it would merely be an umbrella organization that would just coordinate the activities of existing agencies, and have no policing powers of of it own. Well, look at what it has become. With more than 230,000 employees, DHS is now the third largest Cabinet-level Federal department. DHS now has legions of cyber sniffers, blue-gloved crotch gropers, and asset seizers. I suspect that internal DHS checkpoints will be coming soon.

The worst sort of tyranny is the sort that isn't even recognized by those who suffer beneath it's yoke.

Can't folks see how the nooses are being tightened around our necks? Don't they recognize the collusion of the mass media? Where is the outrage? Where are the protests? I've concluded that the America's rams got elastratred by the Public School system years ago, and now there are just a bunch of useless wethers. This is pathetic. If this continues, American liberty and free enterprise will end with just a few plaintive cries of "baa." The sheep have eagerly followed a bucket of grain. Welcome to the slaughterhouse--or at least to the anteroom. - J.W.R.

A recurring theme in western journalism, academia, and collectivist politics is the quaint notion that firearms are intrinsically evil. That is, that they have a will of their own, that somehow inspires their owners to murder and mayhem. I liken this nonsensical belief to voodoo.

The "guns are evil" viewpoint was encapsulated by social psychologist Leonard Berkowitz when he wrote: “Guns not only permit violence, they can stimulate it as well. The finger pulls the trigger, but the trigger may also be pulling the finger.” I am astounded that something like that can be earnestly said or written in modern times, and not immediately get shouted down. This statement betrays an outlook that is not much different than that of a practitioner of Voodoo. And to see this espoused by some with a nomen appendage like "Ph.D." makes it even more absurd. (Leonard Berkowitz was awarded a Ph.D. in social psychology from the University of Michigan in 1951. But apparently U. of M.'s doctoral program did not include courses in logic. And his study of what he called "the weapons effect" was conducted quite unscientifically.) Just imagine if he or one of his academic cohort were to proclaim: "Typewriters not only permit libel, they can stimulate it as well. The fingers tap the keys, but the keys may also be pulling the finger toward the keyboard by an unseen force, stimulating libel.” Any psychologist who trots out such nonsense needs to consult a psychiatrist.

I have a few questions for Dr. Berkowitz and his peers:

1.) What is the mechanical difference between a "target pistol" and a "murder weapon"?

2.) What is a "Nazi Luger"? Can a Luger pistol join the National Socialist party, and share their hatred of perceived Untermenschen and wish to exterminate them? By the same token, what is a "Communist AK-47"?

3.) How many people have been killed by guns without someone physically pulling the trigger? And in any very rare exception to the norm, was it a mechanical defect or negligent handling at fault, or did the gun really wish to do harm and "go off by itself."?

4.) Why have gun makers been sued for wrongful death because of murders committed with their products? (If a gun does indeed consistently fire a bullet at high velocity when the safety mechanism is disengaged and the trigger is pulled, then isn't that device working just as designed?)

5.) What, pray tell, is the distinguishing characteristics of an "assault" rifle, and what differentiates it from a "hunting" rifle? Does the attachment of a black plastic buttstock make a gun in any way more wicked, murderous, or bent on assault than attaching a pretty wooden stock?

6.) Is a magazine capacity of 16 rounds inherently more evil, criminal or sinister than a capacity of 15 rounds? (This was threshold that the geniuses in the Colorado legislature recently declared, complete with jail term penalties. OBTW, Canada set the threshold of evil at a mere five rounds, for semiautomatic long guns.)

Let step back and look at these tools logically and dispassionately: A firearm cartridge can be thought of as a simple single-use internal combustion engine, with a piston that does not reciprocate. Instead, it takes a one-way flight. The engine housing is a brass cartridge case, and the "vehicle" is the entire gun. The pistons as are called bullets. The fuel for these engines (gunpowder) creates the expanding gasses that drive the pistons. Cartridge firearms are compact vehicles for change that have shaped modern history. The righteousness of their use is entirely up to their users, since like any other tool they can be used both for good or for ill.  A firearm is just a tool with no volition. A rifle is no different than a claw hammer. To wit: A hammer can be used to build a house, or it can be used to bash in someone’s skull—the choice of uses is entirely up to the owner.  A bulldozer can used to build roads, or to destroy houses. A rifle can be used to drill holes in paper targets, or to dispatch a marauding bear, or to murder your fellow man. Again, the choice of uses is entirely up to the user. But, alas, even though it is the 21st Century, we are still dealing with voodoo-like superstition. If you get angry or drunk and you then use your Chrysler car to run over a neighbor's child, should your neighbor then launch an organization called "The Coalition to Ban Chryslers," to punish all Chrysler owners?

I am also opposed to all so-called “gun control” laws because they are a form of prior restraint. The gun grabbers presuppose ill-intent on the part of law-abiding citizens and even the guns themselves. I find these laws akin to the concept of “pre-crime”—a term coined by science fiction novelist Phillip K. Dick, in his novel Minority Report. (It was later turned into a movie, starring Tom Cruise.)

If a firearm is used by a criminal or psychopath with evil intentions, then it is a tool for evil. But if it is used for good (to defend life and property), then it is a tool for good. A firearm by itself has no sentience, no volition, no moral force, and no politics. The proper term for this is an adiaphorous object--something that is neither good nor evil. A firearm is simply a cleverly-designed construction of metal, wood, and plastic in the form of a precision tool. Granted, a firearms magnifies the reach of a man's volition. But so does a long bow, and so does a telephone and the Internet. But to deride the tool itself instead of someone who abuses it is profoundly illogical and superstitious.

So why do they disparage the tool and not the one who wrongly wields it? Why isn't gasoline seen as evil, since Julio Gonzalez used it to kill 87 people at the Happy Land Club in his murderous arson, in 1990? And why aren't there calls to ban nitrogen fertilizer, since Timothy McVeigh used it to kill 168 people in the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal building in Oklahoma City on April 19, 1995? And shouldn't Boeing brand jet aircraft be banned, since they were used to take nearly 3,000 innocent lives on September 11, 2001? And aren't pressure cookers now the weapon of choice of Islamic terrorists?

Ever since the invention accurate rifled firearms, the course of human history has been set by the men who wield them. For someone to exclude themselves or seek to disenfranchise others from owning or carrying them is the most absurdly illogical and downright suicidal attitude imaginable. It is obvious that so-called "Gun Control" laws have nothing to do with the criminal misuse of guns, since criminals ignore all laws, by definition. Only honest, law-abiding citizens obey these laws. Rather, these laws are just about control--namely people control. Dictators cannot dictate unless they have unarmed subjects.

Here it is, in quintessence: You are either a man with a gun, or you are mere human cattle for the slaughter. The choice is yours. I prefer to be armed and vigilant rather than being at the mercy of some would-be slave master. There is no notch in my ear.

Because they are such useful tools, our founding fathers recognized the great importance of safeguarding our ownership, carry, and free use of arms. Like the printing press, they were specifically protected by the Bill of Rights. These enumerated rights should be taken at face value and not misconstrued. The Second Amendment is about protecting your right to go deer hunting the same way that the First Amendment is about protecting your right to publish poetry.

Conclusion
Please speak up when you see someone preaching voodoo gun hatred. Violence involving firearms is actually down 39% in the U.S. since 1993. But anti-gun rhetoric has recently been increasing. All of the "evil gun" talk is nothing more than an unfounded irrational fear and loathing that has no place in a modern society that recognizes facts and logic. Anyone who engages in this rhetoric should be immediately suspect. Odds are that they are halophantae with a hidden agenda. While they rail against an inanimate tool, I suspect that they are actually plotting against the liberty of a group of people with whom they disagree. They want to disarm you, so that they (or their hired armed thugs) will have a monopoly on force. And if the history of the 20th century taught us anything, it is that a monopoly on force inevitably leads to genocide. - JWR

Like most of you I have been preparing for the bad times to come. I have made plans with food stores, water, guns and ammo, etc. In my desire for knowledge and to be as prepared as possible I've read anything I can get my hands on and I surf the Internet nightly, I also have an impressive library. I have gleaned what I could from all this and fortified where I can. My major concern now lies is in how to protect my family and supplies that I have worked so hard and diligently on, along with personal sacrifice to lay up, from others. The problems are two fold, first the men in the black suits and secondly are our friends and neighbors who have scoffed at our ideas of being prepared for so long and who's plans are solely to allow the government to come to their rescue and take care of them in their hour of need. I have made preparations to hide what I have stored from the men in the black suits. But if any refugees have a hint you have food stored, or even the perception of possible food this becomes a problem. What can we do about the unprepared who are hungry and will come in force to kill you then take what you have once you are dead? Even if my supplies are hidden refugees still pose a real threat if they believe you have food.

I am a proponent of "bugging in". This is my best bet for sustainable survival. After the great Society Ending Event (SEE) begins and after the lights go out my plans spring into action. I won't implement my plans every time the power goes out! Within the first three to four days, after enough time for reality and permanency to set in, then my implementation begins. I then plan on making my house look abandoned and already looted to the potential looter walking by on the street. We have all seen houses that have the look we are discussing. This house is abandoned and has nothing of importance left inside, so why would anyone want to go in that place and waste their time looking for food? I want them to think..."Someone has already beat me too this one, let's look at another house down the street". This is the look I am trying to achieve. Perception in everything.

After Hurricane Katrina, when search and rescue went from house to house looking for survivors they devised a system to let other searchers know this house had in fact already been searched. A large X was painted on the house close to the front door. In the top section is listed the number of people living in your home. In the section to the right would be the number of sick removed, while the bottom section would show the number of dead found. I would put a 1 in the bottom section while the rest of the family are listed in the sick column. This will probably not mean a whole lot to those passing by other than some official person has already been there.

Next take old pallets and break them apart, then board up the windows and doors on the outside. Do this in an uneven and hurried fashion. Do not use all the same type or size lumber. The idea is to make it look as if this was done in a hurry and with supplies on hand, you don't want a look of pre-planning in your efforts. The purpose is to act as if some official person was wanting to seal this house in a hurry and move on to the next one. The reason to do the outside and not the inside is mainly so looters walking by can see this, and secondly if I do the inside and some one tries to open the door they will hit something solid. To the looter this is a red flashing arrow pointing at my house indicating I have food and other supplies.

Inside you will need to cover the windows with black sheets or black plastic, then cover them with plywood and secure to the inside wall to completely block the light. If Mr Looter is brave enough to look through the slats all they will see is darkness. Cover all the windows and doors both inside and out. This will allow family movement inside with light and such without being visible outside. This is a pain in the daytime due to the loss of ambient light but extremely necessary at night. Note: This goes without saying but...This will offer protection from people looking in and seeing if any one is home, it offers very little protection from noise inside being heard outside. This will negate any effort to appear abandoned if I'm making a lot of noise inside. Lastly on the front door slap a bio-hazard quarantine sign. This is the cherry on top! These can be found on the Internet and be printed for now and saved for later use. Now your house has a look of a medical disaster like the deadly new bird flu - H7N9. Perception is everything.

Lets take it up one more level, if there is no power I will have no need of my television. Throw this in the front yard and even shoot a hole through the screen or at least bust it up some (you don't have any need for this any more). Throw trash in the yard and make your house look as if it has already been looted before the house was quarantined. Another idea is If you have more than 1 vehicle take one and bust out the driver side window, destroy the steering column, and empty out the glove box. This has the look of someone trying to steal your car or looking for food. All this combined together makes the house look less desirable to looters and what they are looking for, I don't believe you can go over board. If you have the time take some flat black spray paint and spray around the tops of windows and door ways to make it look like smoke escaping from the inside making it appear there was a fire inside. Perception is everything.

To the casual refugee walking by, or even the more observant looter, this house has the appearance of having already been looted, or someone possibly even died in this house from some disease. Why would anyone want to waste their time there when the neighbors house looks untouched and loaded with possible food and supplies. The average looter will be in a hurry and not willing to spend any more time than is necessary taking a closer look. Remember perception is everything.

If someone is still determined on getting inside your home after all the work you have done to make it look as uninviting as possible go to your back up plan. In a closet in the master bedroom ( if it is on the first level and you don't have a concrete slab floor) remove the carpet and cut a hole in the floor. This will lead under the house. This will provide a place to safely hide from looters, provided you remain quiet. If you are inside your home don't be fooled by the movies and believe sheetrock walls will stop a bullet. [Unless your house has thick masonry walls,] there is no safe place in your home to hide if those outside are shooting at you inside your house. The prudent looter should be concerned about conserving their ammo but we are talking about hungry, desperate people. When people are under great stress they will do unpredictable things. [Unless it is burned,] hiding under the house will provide a safe place to hide and emerge later, alive.

Getting my plywood cut for each window ahead of time and having my pallets stacked behind the shed now will have me prepared for my deception once the great SEE begins. A note that is obvious but still needs to be said, this work will need to be completed under the cover of darkness. This ruse will have little effect if others are watching you complete the work. A little prep work on your part can make your home safer and appear less desirable for the enviable refugees and possible looters. Perception is everything.
Keep safe. In His Service. - W.K.R. in Kansas

JWR's Comments: Psychologically, there is a fine line between making a house look undesirable and a making it look like "fair game." Be careful about the impression that you make.

In my estimation, creating large and convincing-looking Quarantine warning signs is probably a good use of your time and money. If your signs are worded carefully, then they could give anyone except a semantics expert the impression that the Quarantine is to keep people away from sick people inside, rather than to keep sick people out. (When the goal is the latter, rather than the former.) These signs would need to use official looking typography and biohazard emblems, substituting the words "QUARANTINE AREA." As W.K.R. mentioned, these are even available commercially. If you live in a Mexican border state, then the sign could include, for redundancy: "Medida de sanidad poner en cuarentena", or more simply: Zona De Cuarentena." But I must caution that you will first need to research your State's regulations of what would constitute impersonating a government official, before creating any signs. (These laws vary widely, from state to state. In Texas, for example, their law is written quite broadly and inclusively. Contrast that with Iowa's terse statute.) There is also a Federal statute, but that seems to center around wearing a uniform or carrying a badge or credentials. If you word a quarantine declaration sign carefully, choose the correct type font, and include biohazard symbols, but omit using any words like "by order of ______ (an agency of government)" or the name or initials of any agency, then you will most likely still be legal. (You can probably vaguely use the words "It is declared"--with no agency named--but again you need to research your own state's laws.) As the property owner and head of a household, you can of course "declare" a private quarantine. Just don't impersonate a government official, in doing so! And if there is a doctor in your retreat group, the wording on the sign could truthfully end with something like: "Joe Smith, MD."

It is also wise to research your state's laws on "No Trespassing" signs. Creating various signs was discussed in TMM Forums, a few years back. And some useful links to printable signs were included in a Backwoods Home Forum thread.

One more thought: Don't overlook the human sense of smell, which triggers deep psychological reactions. Depending on the circumstances, simply leaving a large animal gut pile to rot (hidden under some loosely-piled leaves or straw) in your front yard could do much more to deter invaders than anything else. But this would of course only be appropriate if you don't have neighbors who live close-by!

The bottom line: Fear is a stronger motivator than disinterest or indifference.

In One Second After, William Forstchen describes a cataclysmic scenario, a widespread EMP effect that is only slightly less devastating than nuclear near-annihilation. The protagonists in JWR's novel Patriots fare better temporarily because the physical infrastructure remains relatively intact for a few weeks after the nation’s economic collapse. In either scenario the five epidemics that are already under way in the United States give new relevance to TEOTWAWKI.

Epidemic (from the Greek: among the people): prevalent and spreading rapidly among many individuals within a community at the same time; widespread.

The five epidemics:
            Obesity
            Type 2 diabetes
            Osteoporosis
            Dementia
            End-stage renal disease (kidney failure)

Although it is the leading cause of death in the United States, heart disease resulting from coronary atherosclerosis is not an epidemic according to the above definition. It is not spreading rapidly but is well established and mortality
is actually decreasing slightly because of modern treatment.

Epidemic #1: Obesity
Obesity is the linchpin for the other four epidemics.
From 2000 to 2010 obesity increased by 80 percent or more in 39 states. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that by 2030 42 percent of Americans will be obese, nearly half again as many as currently bear that burden. A study from Duke University indicates that morbid obesity, a weight 80 pounds or more above standard weight, will affect 11 percent of the U.S. population. Obesity is clearly “prevalent and spreading rapidly among many individuals” as defined above.

Inactivity is a major factor in the obesity epidemic. A century ago only about 5 percent of Americans were obese but labor-saving devices and automobiles have reduced the need for physical activity for the average person by nearly 75 percent. The typical American adult or child spends 8.5 hours a day watching television and using a computer or similar devices.
Diet is the other major factor that leads to obesity. Over the past 4 or 5 generations we have replaced whole-grain products with those made from refined flour and we have increased our consumption of sugar several-fold. The average American consumes 40 pounds of sugar in soft drinks alone in a single year. When the SHTF, whatever the cause, our food supply will be severely compromised.            

One might think that the one-third of our population that is obese will be able to live off stored energy and will survive longer but they will not. The reason is that very few of them are free of medical problems. Obesity is simply not compatible with good health. There are no exceptions. To think otherwise is delusion.

Epidemic #2: Type 2 diabetes
Type 2 diabetes is the fastest-growing chronic disease in the world. It affects more than 25 million Americans and 57 million more have prediabetes (defined as a fasting blood sugar between 100 and 125), half of whom are not yet aware of their condition. The CDC projects that one-third of the population will have type 2 diabetes by 2050. Among Hispanic females that number will reach 53 percent.

Type 1, early onset or juvenile diabetes, is a disease in which an autoimmune process completely destroys the insulin-producing cells of the pancreas. A severe reduction in carbohydrate intake will postpone the inevitable in some persons with type 1 diabetes but not for long. They need insulin daily in order to survive. Reduced supplies of all forms of insulin and the lack of effective refrigeration mean that their days are numbered, as described so tragically in One Second After.

Type 2 diabetes was once known as adult-onset diabetes but it has become common in adolescence and it occurs with some frequency among pre-adolescent children. Persistently high levels of blood sugar cause cells to be come unresponsive to the action of insulin. After a period of such insulin resistance the cells that produce this hormone eventually fail.

A lifetime of moderately intense physical activity almost eliminates the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Experts refer to it as an exercise-deficiency disease. Sometimes it results from a genetic disorder or from prescription medications but these are in the minority. In reality, more than 90 percent of persons with type 2 diabetes are inactive and overweight or obese. Among those who appear to be of normal weight, some fall into the category of normal-weight obese, persons who have gained fat but lost muscle. Although their weight is normal, their waist size reveals the truth because a pound of fat takes up more space than a pound of muscle.

Diabetes is a disease of blood vessels. That’s why its worst complications, heart disease, stroke, kidney failure, blindness and limb amputation are so common. These complications appear faster and earlier among children because those growing bodies are constantly forming and re-forming new blood vessels as they increase in size.

When the SHTF death rates will rise dramatically among those with both types of diabetes. Type 2 diabetics who have mild disease will fare better but most of them have
complications that will worsen without prescription drugs. Lifestyle changes can postpone the need for insulin but when metformin and other drugs become unavailable, complications of the disease and mortality will rise rapidly. 

Survivalists with type 2 diabetes should double down on their efforts to lose weight and to become physically fit. Those who can afford to stock up on medications should do so. Pharmacies will be depleted of stock as rapidly as grocery stores when the SHTF.

Epidemic #3: Osteoporosis
The incidence of this bone-thinning disorder will reach epidemic proportions by mid-century. Like type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis is an exercise-deficiency disease. It is not due to an inadequate calcium intake. Lack of calcium makes bones soft, not brittle. Two examples are childhood rickets and adult osteomalacia. The first is due to a lack of vitamin D that inhibits the absorption of calcium; the second has several causes, including chronic kidney disease. These calcium-deficient bones do not break; they bend, causing extreme bowlegs, for example.

There is a bone-building window between the ages of about 5 and 25 years during which the body completes the formation of almost all of its bone mass. Once closed, that window never reopens. The process requires two elements: moderately intense physical activity and proper nutrition. Today’s young people fail on both counts and will face an epidemic of broken hips and collapsed vertebrae when they are eligible for Medicare (if it still exists then).

Only a couple of generations ago most kids walked a lot, rode bikes, climbed trees, participated in pick-up games of various sports, frolicked on monkey bars and roughhoused. Safety concerns, urbanization, organization of sports, cancellation of Physical Education classes in school and other factors limit those activities now. Computer games and television occupy about half of their waking hours today.

Calcium is important during these bone-building years but children now drink twice as much soft drinks as milk. In the 1970s it was just the opposite. Other nutrients for making strong bones include several vitamins, magnesium and omega-3 fats but children who don’t get many vegetables but eat plenty of junk food get few of them. Nearly half of today’s adolescents are deficient in vitamin D because they spend so much time indoors.

Few people, including those in the medical field, are aware that pregnancy factors will affect the skeleton of the fetus when that infant reaches middle age. A pregnant young woman who exercises little, smokes and has poor nutrition will herself have an inadequate bone mass. Her baby will too, the evidence of that being that the rate of forearm fractures among school-age children has doubled since the 1970s.

Most adults lose bone mass year by year because of their sedentary lifestyle. Without regular, moderately intense physical activity bones become less dense and break easily in a fall. Exercise, especially resistance training, helps to restore some of the bone mass that has been lost during years of inadequate physical activity.

Why is osteoporosis a problem in TEOTWAWKI? A hip fracture almost always requires hospitalization, perhaps surgery. Even with modern medical care about 25 percent of persons with a hip fracture die within a year. Picture the scenario when the SHTF.

Epidemic #4: Dementia.

Dementia consists of two different conditions, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia. Alzheimer’s disease is a disorder whose cause is uncertain. Genetic factors play a major role in about half of its victims. As our population ages it is estimated that Alzheimer’s disease will affect about 25 percent of the population by the age of 85.

Vascular dementia is the result of narrowing of the blood vessels of the brain. Diminished blood flow prevents brain cells from being properly nourished and removing waste products. The result is poor mental function, memory loss and shrinkage of brain tissue. Type 2 diabetes has become the most important cause of vascular dementia.

Persons with dementia require attentive personal care for their nourishment and hygiene requirements. I cannot predict what will happen to them in a TEOTWAWKI scenario but many of them have one or more chronic illnesses that require prescription medications that are likely to be in short supply. In a worst-case scenario they will have a low priority for treatment.

Epidemic #5: Kidney failure (End-Stage Renal Disease)

The kidney is little more than a collection of tiny blood vessels in close contact with equally tiny tubular structures, the combination forming a filtering system that removes waste products in the form of urine. When normal blood vessels within the kidney are replaced by those that have become deformed and scarred because of diabetes or other disease, toxic by-products accumulate within the body. A dialysis machine – what some persons still refer to as an artificial kidney – cleanses the blood in 3 or 4 treatments per week.

When the nation’s power grids fail because of an EMP or a devastating cyber attack it will take the lives of hundreds of thousands of dialysis patients with it. In 1972 there were 10,000 persons on dialysis; in 2010 that number reached 350,000, even as dialysis centers were struggling to keep up with the demand. If the CDC’s projection for type 2 diabetes, the primary cause of kidney failure, is correct that number could soar to more than a million in a couple more decades. The yearly cost of dialysis ranges from $15,000 to $50,000 per year and it will make kidney failure one of our most expensive epidemics.

There is no alternative treatment for kidney failure. Kidney transplantation, which may require a year or two on a waiting list, is not an option for millions of diabetics and it certainly will not be at TEOTWAWKI.

Dialysis units will stop working when the lights go out. Patients with end-stage renal disease will be among the grid failure’s first casualties.

Finding solutions: Genes load the gun; lifestyle pulls the trigger.

All these chronic conditions are lifestyle-related and are not due to genetics or to aging. They were either rare or nonexistent barely a century ago and not because people are living longer and have more time to acquire these diseases. Centenarians in places as diverse as Okinawa and Sardinia are slender and fit and can name their great-grandchildren. They have almost no heart disease and type 2 diabetes is virtually non-existent. Elderly hunter-gatherers don’t develop these diseases either – until they become civilized.

To be sure, if the pharmaceutical industry were to collapse in a SHTF scenario we would again face new threats from old infectious diseases but the thin and the fit would fare best. Obesity and diabetes weaken the immune system but exercise strengthens it.

Scores of posts on SurvivalBlog urge us to maintain a high level of fitness and to keep our weight, i.e., body fat, at normal levels. No one is too old to exercise and eating sensibly (quantity and quality) is not rocket science. It’s not too late to begin a healthy lifestyle. It may be the key that will help you to survive in TEOTWAWKI.

About The Author: Philip J. Goscienski, M.D. is a retired pediatric infectious diseases specialist, CPR instructor, columnist and author. His book, Health Secrets of the Stone Age, Second Edition, Better Life Publishers, 2005 has won three book awards. He has archived more than 400 weekly newspaper columns at www.stoneagedoc.com.

Mr. Rawles,
I have to believe that the precious metals markets are practicing their own sort of fractional reserve system.  Does anyone doubt that the markets (dealers, banks, etc) keep a small quantity on hand for physical transactions, but trade paper claims on much greater quantities?

A growing concern of mine which I haven’t seen addressed elsewhere:  What will happen when the holders of paper claims run to court because they cannot obtain the physical metals the claims represent?  Significant numbers of these claim holders are politically powerful.  Will the courts decree a clawback of the physical metals from their present holders, and a redistribution of the those physical metals amongst the paper claim holders?  The similarity to the clawback forced upon the “lucky” few who withdrew profits from Madoff’s pyramid scheme is disconcerting.

People holding physical precious metals would resist any clawback.  Physical metals can be changed in form, hidden, traded or sold such as not be recognizable from when they were purchased.  The tools to enforce the clawback would have to be truly menacing for most people to comply.

Please consider addressing the likelihood of a court ordered clawback of physical precious metals, and your evaluation on the lengths to which the system would go to enforce such a decree.

Thanks for your previous commentaries and time in evaluating this as a topic. - Andrew H. in Washington State

I've encountered a few folks who don't realize that slavery still exists in the world. I'm not talking about figurative slavery--like every April 15th, here in the States. Rather, I'm talking about literal contemporary slavery, with kidnapping and a life spent in chains or locked up in a cell or prison-like dormitory every night. Slavery is still commonplace in North Africa, most notably in the Sahel. Wikipedia sums it up: "The [slavery] problem is most severe in the Sahel region (and to a lesser extent the Horn of Africa), along the racial boundary of Arabized Berbers in the north and blacks in the south. This concerns the Sahel states of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad and Sudan in particular, continuing a centuries-old pattern of hereditary servitude going back to the Muslim conquests." It is estimated that there are more than 200,000 slaves in Sudan, alone. Many of these slaves are Christian, and virtually all of their slave masters are Muslims.

You will have to look hard to find many mentions of slavery in the politically correct mainstream media, which is still dutifully chanting the "Islam is the religion of Peace" mantra. Most western liberal journalists have conveniently twisted the concept of modern slavery to focus almost entirely on sex slaves in Eastern Europe and in places like Thailand, while ignoring much more blatant slavery in North Africa. To be fair, it is much easier for a journalist to get a picture of a teenage prostitute on a street corner in Bangkok than it is for them to get a picture of slave toiling in field near Al-Fashir. But there still seems to be a lot of willful ignorance and misdirection. Thankfully, we do hear about what is going on in Sudan on CBN, from bloggers like Chuck Holton, and through other Christian media outlets.

How can you help stop modern-day slavery? Please support active resistance in the Sahel region. Just a few brave folks are liberating slaves and teaching villagers how to shoot, so that they can fight off would-be slaver kidnappers. One charitable group that will soon be doing firearms training on the border of South Sudan and Sudan is Christian Reformed Outreach, South Sudan (C.R.O.S.S.) I support and highly recommend their unique ministry. OBTW, they have a few volunteer support positions open, here in the United States that would be ideal for retirees.

Just buying up modern-day slaves and giving them their freedom hasn't worked. The Islamic slavers simply go and kidnap more of them. The only way to effectively stop armed slaver kidnappers is to train and equip large numbers of armed free men in the border villages. In the modern context, you can "Just Say No" to slavery only with a battle rifle.

I received the following from an embedded mil-blogger friend.  His personal information has been redacted:

Sir, 
If I may, I would like to share some information with you.  Some is based on personal experience, and some comes from experts I know and trust.  What you do with this is up to you, but I wanted you to have it to think about just in case.  

First, I can commend an I-phone app (should be available for other platforms as well) that the Army had suggested to me called IED Aware.  It is actually pretty much the basic Army awareness course (pre-deployment) done as an app.  Maker is ForceReadiness.com, that does other education and training apps as well.  Not sure if it is free or not, but quite a few of the study apps are.  

Something I can share with you based on experience is that situational awareness is the key.  But, not just in trying to spot something -- you need it to be prepared for realistic options.  

Visually and otherwise scout your AO immediately.  You are not just looking for potential IED sites, you need to get an idea of cover options.  Concealment is NOT cover.  Things that can hide you from view are concealment, not cover.  Cover is something that can protect you from bullets, blast, and fragments.  Cover is concrete, it is thick metal as in armor or even the engine block of a car, it is a ditch, a culvert, or other thing that can stop/deflect incoming.  And, yes, cover can help deflect a blast wave, as they are strange creatures that can and do bounce, deflect, and reflect.  Buy me a beer and I will tell you of one (non-IED generated) I know first-hand caused a relocation of a wall without breaking a pane of glass in that glass wall.  

You need to know cover not just for yourself, but if something happens you need to be able to direct people away using as much of that cover as realistically possible.  So, scout, plan, and plan options so that you do not have to think about things if something happens, but can assess and be proactive in an emergency.  Having to stop and think can and does get people killed.  Plan ahead. 

Then, scan the area thinking of where an IED can be easily concealed (trash can, paper bin, etc.) and check those for anything suspicious.  It looks suspicious, call out and call in.  Clear the area, and hunker down in a place that gives you as much cover as possible yet still allows you to control the cleared area to keep idiots and others from wandering in.  

If the area is clear, scan for distance markers.  One of the most common currently is a plastic grocery bag tied to a branch or otherwise secured; but, the key is to look for something out of place and or a series of things that also happen to be a uniform distance apart.  Just as we use distance and aiming stakes, so to does the enemy.  While it is often that such a bag or other signal marks the spot of the IED, it can also be a trigger point so that a vehicle or group moving at a steady speed will be in the blast zone if the remote detonator is triggered as they pass that point.  Using this method, someone can be at home or a nearby bar watching an event on television and know when to dial the phone or press the button.  If you see something that could be a distance/location marker, call out and call it in.  If that marker is near a culvert or sewer line under the street, it needs to be checked out immediately.  Admittedly, IEDs in such are mostly for vehicles, but… 

It is doubtful that most terrorists would try to bury anything, but do keep an eye out for a freshly plowed or dug flower bed or such, just in case.  

Watch for suspicious behavior.  Someone moving a bit too nonchalantly, exceedingly nervous, obviously drunk or on drugs with a coat or such over themselves (amazing how many suicide bombers have to have chemical enhancement to do the job), or someone who may or may not be praying but has a look on their face and/or in their eyes that really can't be described other than to say that when you see it, you know it.  They will usually move confidently and force their way towards their destination no matter what, and one hand is usually at their side or in a pocket.  It's not just someone moving in quickly, dropping a backpack or other container and then moving away, it is a host and range of behaviors that don't fit the norm.  If you spot someone like this, don't approach if at all possible, but here stay calm, talk normally and call in and have LE come and intercept the person.  

If an IED goes off, take cover.  If possible, choose cover that provides overhead cover as well.  Roll under a vehicle, concrete bench, etc.  If there is no cover, go flat:  shrapnel tends to go out in a cone, and if you can get under the cone, all you have to deal with immediately is blast effect.  Quite a few wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan from incoming happen because people kept trying to run to a duck and cover or other shelter, instead of going flat.  You hear blast, or get an incoming warning, you go flat if you can't make shelter in about five seconds.  

Keep in mind that immediate shrapnel is only part of the issue:  blasts like that tend to toss things in the air, sometimes substantial things.  That's why if you can get to cover that provides overhead cover, you should.  Keep in mind that in Boston, parts of the bomb were found on a rooftop some ten stories up.  Debris can be coming down for up to a minute after a blast.  If there is no cover, after the initial blast front and shrapnel wave has passed, you go turtle (legs and arm under you, head back so your helmet goes over back armor as much as possible) or squat with your feet flat, knees to chest, back to blast, and hands over head so that you make the smallest possible area from a vertical perspective.  

Next, know that there are likely to be more explosions, as various online manuals (and generally smart terrorists) will do secondaries or even tertiaries to get first responders.  You will have seconds to a couple of minutes to regroup, try to get people moving in a safe direction, and get set for the next blast.  Use it well.  

For any form of IED, tourniquets are essential.  In Boston, we saw a lot of improvised and it is likely that we will have to do so at need as most IGR do not have combat tourniquets.  People are going to be screaming, there's going to be blood and debris, and triage needs to be with traumatic amputations first and foremost.  If a limb is gone, or just about gone, get the tourniquet on as low as possible on the limb and as quickly as possible.  Then worry about shrapnel wounds.  Know that if they follow standard doctrine, bleeding is going to worse because the shrapnel was coated with rat poison, warfarin, which is known medically as Coumadin.  It is an anti-coagulant, and the idea is to get as much as possible into the wound to make the victim bleed out.  

Now, to something I put last because it is against most current doctrine.

One thing that is not to the liking of academics and other rear-echelon types is that you want to see if there is a dump point in your immediate AO.  A dump point is something that will reduce blast effects and shrapnel.  Good foxholes have a grenade sump for this, when you are on foot or at an event, you don't have that but you do have other options.  Keep in mind that blast waves, no matter how powerful, like to follow the path of least resistance as much as possible.  You want to spot a dump point in advance because sometimes you roll snake eyes don't have a lot of options.  A dump point can be a concrete road barrier, a dumpster, a sewer opening, or anything that gives thicker sides and no top or a weak top.  You dump an IED into such, it will be destroyed, but most of the blast and shrapnel is likely to go up, not out; and, what does go out will not go out as far.  

Two quick scenarios under this heading.  First, someone drops a bag of some type nearby and takes off running.  If they do that, things are out of control on both sides and your options are very limited.  If they have dropped it, and there is no boom, the odds of it having any form of movement trigger are slim to none.  If they are running, they are panicked and no longer thinking and can trigger immediately or even forget to do so.  If it is a timed bomb, then they may be running because time is running out -- but you have time to think and act.  Right then, you have to make a choice.  

First thing you do, is get people to get down and/or move away as quickly as possible, because even if it is someone playing a "joke" on security, you have to treat it as real.  If you are that close, there are few realistic options for survival unless you have a dump point planned.  Get the bag to the dump point, then try to get people and yourself away if no immediate boom, and do so as low as possible.  If you hear any noise from the direction of the bag, go flat.  You can't help anyone if you are dead.  The second scenario is a suicide bomber near/next to you.  Your only viable option is to try to control them, get them into the dump point, and try to get away.  Odds are you won't, but you are pretty much out of options at that point anyway.  If you are within about 15 feet of either, odds are that you are going to die, the only difference being how many die with you. - X.

- Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog Editor at Large)

I currently provide consulting services to major global corporations. One effective way to do battle with a competitor is to place yourself in their shoes and plan out your own demise – exactly what I will do here today. Below is my concise strategy to completely ban firearms in the US within 10 years. I am not alone here, rest assured there are many groups that have paid tidy sums to have the same roadmap developed and are currently rolling it out in a very deliberate manner.

Step 1 – Divide to conquer. We know there were not enough votes to maintain the AWB and there are more gun owners now then there were in 2004. We know there is Youtube and forums that people gather on and multiply like cockroaches. We know that about 5 million AR-15s have been sold and probably the same magnitude of AK-47s if not more. We have surveys, Freedom of Information requests and NICS records at our disposal. We cannot defeat the entire gun owning US and we know it, but it doesn’t matter one bit. Let them believe the NRA is all powerful and they don’t have to act on their own, much less as a group.

First, make this a Democrat versus Republican issue. This will cut their forces in half immediately.

Next, divide the gun owners into niche groups and get them to turn on each other. We know there are gun owners that only hunt. We’ll craft a message that explains they hunt with three shotgun shells, why would anyone need a Saiga baby killer that can accept 10 or 20? That gun is only meant to destroy lives, you can’t even legally carry one into the field. That will resonate with at least some. We also know some only target or competitively shoot. Why would you need a 100 round drum magazine? Find a time when it was used to kill and convince them to give up someone else’s 100 round drum, in return for not touching their 1911. Then, find all the new concealed handgun people and show them how ridiculous it is to have a flash hider and PVS-14 night vision scope. These are offensive tools for the military and how would you like it if they got in the wrong hands and the bad guys entered your home one night with them? If we can make a reasonable law about offensive weapons, I’m sure we can live with your right to defend yourself against criminals trying to get them to kill your family and steal your guns.

This is by far the most powerful and greatest strategy to achieve our goal, divide the group off and pick them off one at a time. If we do nothing else, do this.

We will also hit them at the local, state and federal level. We have politicians and the media at all levels and they don’t. Make them defend several fronts and confuse the issue by launching similar but different bills. Have ten different definitions of an “assault rifle” and make them tell everyone how great assault is. “Assault” is a crime, force them to defend it daily. Our goal is to chip away and develop a base to build on; we just need small victories and don’t really care where they are or what we take out of their hands. Let the genie out of the bottle and she won’t go back.

Finally, divide the supply chain and make independent deals. Make a deal with Wal-Mart to slack off the government heat in exchange for them to voluntarily agree to stop selling semi-automatic weapons and 5.56 ammunition. Make a deal with the NRA to expand background checks in return for a larger voice or a few extra cops. Amazon.com is probably willing to do just about anything as are the other retailers from the west coast. People will see all of these big companies coming on board and each deal by itself will make some sense. Together, we gain a tremendous amount without giving anything up. It’s like winning without the burden of a congressional vote. Church groups are golden, get them on stage with you and host discussions about how bad guns are. Pass out candles and framed pictures of the fallen. Make sure we develop the agenda and makes sure it is gun control.

Step 2 – Hearts, not minds. Babies dying. Families destroyed. Tragic accidents. Candlelight vigil. Sensible steps. Moral obligation. Reasonable response. Blood. Funerals. Mothers crying. President’s crying. Enough is enough. Why is the US so much worse? Emotion sells, don’t deviate.

We sell to the heart and ignore the mind. People on average don’t know history and won’t take the time to research anything we or the other side says – plus, they tend to be limited by the truth. If we say it, it is true. “Assault weapons” are what we say they are, and can and should expand over time. The 5.56 is a high-powered killing machine designed to mow down military enemies 1,000 yards away and has no civilian use. Tyranny is so dead we don’t even bring it up unless we are talking about the Middle East. The second amendment applies to hunting with muskets. High capacity is anything over one round. Everything is high-powered.

Make up new names or find ugly names like “street sweeper.” “Tactical” companies play right in, go out and find guns with pictures of snakes, infidels, skulls and goblins on them. Put them on the news, in the press and on the morning and evening shows. Use those pictures for stories they aren’t even related to. Make famous a few YouTuber mall ninjas and tough guys who don’t shave. Use the word militia and northern Idaho with pictures of skinheads from the 1980s.

Answer questions with questions. Q: Do you believe in a natural right of self-defense? A: How many little children have to die before we act?

Statistics are great, start with strong societies like Japan that are inherently peaceful. They have no guns and just about no murders, case closed. Don’t worry about places like Chicago, nobody outside inner city Chicago knows or really cares. Chicago doesn’t even care. Canada and the UK are safe too. We want to be just like them, probably even better. The university brigade is your best friend here, start with UC Berkeley and go out from there. Find the janitor at Harvard and get him on MSNBC and CNN. He is an expert in a suit and tie and we all believe him. Combine university experts with their anecdotal statistics. Better yet, find a crazy gun owner and have a debate showing everyone how rabid they are.

Our side is the “pro” side and their side is the “anti” side. Remember how we turned the pro-life crowd into anti-abortion activists? Activists shoot people and blow up buildings. Pro-safety is the first step but not the last. Develop a name other than “gun owner” or “gun rights” and certainly stay away from the word constitution. Our enemies are anti-_____ activists, fill in the blank.

Finally, send every gun death story to the media and discuss it during all press briefings. Every issue can be tied back to the tragedy of the day. Are you old enough to remember when the nightly news read every American death nightly during the latter part of the Vietnam War? It is flat out effective. If it ends up showing something you don’t want to see (like the Oregon shooting stopped by a legally armed citizen who didn’t even need to fire a shot), simply let it fade. Nobody will pick it up except maybe Faux News. Every article should contain the following words: high-powered, high-capacity, military style, arsenal, explosives, cache, bulletproof vest, legally owned and certainly assault rifle. Have a high count for something; the number of deaths this year, the number of mass shootings, number of guns at the scene, number of bullets, just find big numbers. Don’t worry about accuracy, who is going to argue with you and take the side of the killer? Nobody will notice when the 10 assault rifle cache discovered in his car turns into only one two weeks from now.

Publicize reloading. Send the ATF in to inspect illegal ammunition factories cranking out thousands of high-power rounds in garages. Did you know your neighbor had a stockpile of explosive gunpowder, 5,000 detonators and 5,000 armor piercing bullets and was assembling them in the garage near the playground your kid uses? Let them argue terminology and defend the terrorists. We probably need a hotline like we had for drugs as well as several stock homemade videos of explosions and anarchists for the news to use.

Step 3 – Diversion - “an attack or feint that draws the attention and force of an enemy from the point of the principal operation” (from meriam-webster.com).

Beat the “ban” drum. Beat the executive order drum even louder. Let Feinstein and all of the pro-safety groups whip them into a frenzy. While the other side is all lathered up and running around putting out fires, we are free to get work done. Use existing powers to limit or tax imports (creating US jobs or protecting US manufactures from those pesky Russians and Chinese dumping illegal cheap imports into the US). Pass regulations to make it just about impossible to be an FFL. Raid a few. Send IRS auditors to the rest.

Work on Internet sales, how can they actually verify someone is 18 or 21? There should be a couple dozen hoops to set up somewhere. A good raid or ten would work well here too and doesn’t require anyone to vote on anything. Use stock pictures of a gun shop in the seedy part of town and tie it back to a shooting – “in a store like this…..” even if the store had nothing to do with any crimes.

Undercover gun show footage is great – everyone knows that is where evil goes for fun. We prove our point and make people afraid to buy or sell. Beat on the gun show loophole but never define it. “Narrow” it six or seven times, always limiting something but never quite fixing the problem.

What about shooting ranges? Do they comply with zoning requirements? How about making new ones? Noise ordinances? Have we tested nearby water for lead? I bet we can find a few holes in the outside wall the local news would love to hear about. What chemicals are in primers or powder that can hurt people or damage the environment? Same goes with gun stores, the city really should find a way to ban the sale of arms and ammunitions within city or county limits, don’t we have an attorney they could borrow or a “best practice” from another city we could share with them?

Get the point yet? Make life miserable for gun merchants and owners. Many will throw in the towel and give up. Make them drive long distances, spend lots of money and take tremendous amounts time to do the simplest task. Their group will get smaller over time and eventually they will go down in a whimper.

Step 4 – Money talks, especially when they don’t have any. Remember sin taxes on cigarettes and liquor? We make more money from smokes than Marlboro! Tax ammunition 50% and use the money for victim support and trauma bandages for first responders. Put it up for a vote with no riders, let them vote against grieving mothers.

Parlay this with Step 1 – people accept more taxes as long as we tax someone else. Go round and round and eventually you have everyone. Divide ammunition up and start with taxes on military ammunition, “armor piercing” or hollow points. What is military ammunition you ask? It is something we don’t want them to have. Expand it over time. A .308 or 30-06 can and will pierce a police officer’s Level IIIA vest, do we even have a name for ultra-high power cop killer armor piercing bullets yet? Vilify reloading, they are some of the most dedicated.

An NFA firearm or accessory now costs $200 just for the tax stamp, simply expand it to include things we can’t yet ban. Who would argue against a more solid background check for assault rifles (remember the truth doesn’t really matter here). $200 for the rifle stamp, $200 for a magazine stamp, $1,000 for a rifle (isn’t supply and demand great?), $600 for a case of ammo, $100 for mandatory locks and cases for the home and vehicle followed up with $150 for a state license = Joe be too broke to be a gun owner.

Levy a $1,000 annual FFL renewal fee plus $50 per firearm sale and use the money for more inspectors. We probably only have a few, or at least that is our story. Shouldn’t they also need $50,000,000 in liability insurance as a minimum? How can a hairdresser be required to be licensed, but not a guy selling the most high-powered weapon known to man? The owner and all their staff needs to be federally certified and licensed as well and that’s going to cost money a guy making $12 an hour just won’t have. The instructors are private citizens that also need to be certified. To protect the workers and gun shop owners, we’ll limit what they can charge to $50 for the four day course which will naturally restrict how many classes they offer and where. Add a test that they send in to us for an eight week grading process. They will have found another job by the time they get the results. Annual renewals with excessive paperwork work well.

Don’t forget about the local level, they deserve love too. They need the money new licenses and permits can provide – plus two sets of permits beats one any day. Inspectors are people that need jobs too, especially if we reward the ones that issue the most citations with promotions. Let’s see how they like “pay for performance.”

Step 5 – Frame it and hang it on our wall. We experienced a near miss when the NRA proposed an idea to end the real problem – social violence. This should serve as a stark reminder of our need to completely define the discussion. For anyone not paying attention, we are aiming to end gun ownership. Use tragic events to frame the discussion of gun control. Debate gun control, not violence or our society.

What would have happened if the NRA proposed a gathering at their headquarters to develop a comprehensive proposal to curb violence by addressing it as a social problem?

We frame the issue, we choose the venue and we choose the participant list. The issue is always gun control, we don’t debate the problem, we debate a version of the solution – gun control. The only question we want to hear is what type of gun control is best? How many rounds do people need? Should this gun be legal?

Use tragic events, then quickly transition to the core issue of disarming the nation. Every tragedy has the same solution.

Debrief – It would be almost comical if it weren’t playing out on the news every night. President Obama has chosen this place and this time as the battle royale. This is the big one. Canada had theirs, so did the UK and New Zealand. Today in the UK, you can be arrested for carrying a baseball bat in your car. I say this to reinforce the fact that you are either in support of private gun ownership or not. This isn’t the time to debate what types of magazines are “necessary”. Win this battle or the only magazine you will be buying will be Newsweek.

Six main reasons were cited by the authors as to why the Second Amendment is necessary (reference Wikipedia):

• Deter a tyrannical government
• Repel invasion
• Suppress insurrection
• Facilitate the natural right of self-defense
• Participate in law enforcement
• Enable the people to organize a militia system

Hunting and target shooting are notably absent. In fact, all of the above justifications involve fighting or war-time activities. The Second Amendment has nothing to do with deer or pieces of paper with circles on them. Noah Webster perhaps summarized it most eloquently (my emphasis) “Before a standing army can rule the people must be disarmed; as they are in almost every kingdom in Europe. The supreme power in America cannot enforce unjust laws by the sword; because the whole body of the people are armed, and constitute a force superior to any band of regular troops that can be, on any pretence, raised in the United States.”

I now take the liberty of combining the six known justifications for the Second Amendment into two:

• Defend the country against a tyrannical government
• Defend ourselves, our family and our neighbors against people who wish to harm and kill us

The most effective (and only logical) argument that the Second Amendment is antiquated and should be removed or revised would be to argue that these are modern times and the two bullets above longer exist. Regarding tyrannical government, as of this writing the world has witnessed the beginning of at least five revolutions in the last two years: Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Tunisia. In the last decade, at least five additional governments were overthrown by their citizens. I refuse to participate in the fantasy that American leaders are somehow genetically immune to future tyranny – it is an unfortunate human trait.

Neither can a sane person assume that Americans will never again face war or crime that requires citizens to bear arms in defense of themselves or the nation. Our armed forces and law enforcement are the best trained, best equipped, finest organization that has ever walked the Earth, yet we cannot expect them to be everywhere, always. Reference the LA riots, 9-11, Katrina, or any of the 6.6 million violent crimes committed every year in the US during “peace time.”

We need semi-automatic rifles with full capacity magazines for the same reason the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Coast Guard, police, National Guard, FBI, CIA, State Department, Secret Service, Border Patrol, and Homeland Security do – they are a very effective tool for stopping bad people from doing bad things to those we care about. Go back to the LA riots, if you were looking out your window and an armed group of thugs was heading to your front door, what weapon would you want?

If you think this is a republican vs. democrat or liberal vs. conservative debate, please wake up. Republicans, if you ever want to find a concentrated group of gun enthusiasts, head over to the union hall. The fight is those for the constitution and those against it. If one amendment falls, what holds the other ones up?

What do we do? Easy to say, hard to do – act as one unit and stand for someone you may not even agree with. You may only hunt birds and actually really despise the AK-47 and the punks on Youtube. The thing is that someday you will probably need that guy with the AK to stand for you. If he falls, who do you think is next? My daughter’s NRA instructor hit the nail on the head by having a student break a pencil. Then he handed 15 to the strongest guy in the class that couldn’t break them all at one time. Realize that there is an agenda to disarm you and this is simply the first fight.

The future depends on sportsmen and gun owners, make more of them. Find more like you and band together – you’ll need reassurance and a strong partner. Join whatever organization floats your boat, better yet join three or four.

Take your kid hunting. Take a neighbor shooting. Teach them both to be safe and respectful of life. Attend a rally or protest in a suit armed with children, mothers, an honest face and a bunch of facts. Volunteer as a gun owning group, volunteer to teach hunters education. Take the Scout troop to the rifle range to shoot arrows. Take a class or teach a class. Host a swap meet at the range. Invite people out to your property for shooting or hunting. Turn a fisherman into a hunter. Turn a bird hunter into a defensive pistol shooter. Buy them all a pocket constitution. Have you ever heard of Project Appleseed? They will send someone out to talk to your group for free.

You don’t have to be a gun owner to respect the constitution. Talk with as many people as you can, you may be surprised how many non-gun owners are just as afraid as you.

Buy arms and ammunition, a right not exercised is a right lost. You shouldn’t need another reason to pick up a new gun, magazines, ammunition or parts right now. Do it. Buy whatever you need, buy whatever you may need - the industry needs your support. Firearms, ammunition, magazines, parts, holsters, targets, everything. Make sure to tell the vendors your support is based on their support, one big happy family. Find the ones that actively donate and work with GOA and the NRA. Send them a letter thanking them – they will probably be getting a lot of heat soon. Convince others to do the same. Could you talk to 10 people to get them to send a single e-mail, letter or call? Do they support second amendment groups? Ask them why not and remind them their competitors do. Keep the heat on anyone that starts to go soft on our rights. Use your Youtube channel or your blog to magnify your efforts. Link to other like-minded messages.

Get a concealed carry permit and use it. In my state, each and every one either goes across the desk of a sheriff or police chief. What message will the small town sheriff that is up for re-election next year get if 500 cross his desk this month? Meet your local sheriff or police chief and thank them for what they do. Go as a sportsman’s group and hit the fire station on the way home.

Watch each company that meets with the administration or state and local government. Write them a letter thanking them for what they do and letting them know your continued business 100% depends on helping defend our constitutional rights. Let them know about your YouTube channel with 50,000 subscribers or the 10 forums you regularly post to. Send the letter out to other companies just in case. They may be caving or preparing to fight, you don’t know without asking.

For an offensive strategy, how about we also talk about the 2,500 babies killed every day in abortion clinics? Maybe we can discuss how Obama and David Gregory’s kids go to a school with 11 armed guards? Remind them this is in addition to the Secret Service, the school had the guards long before the Obama kids showed up – Obama and David chose to protect their kids with guns and now want yours. What about Bloomberg’s bodyguards? Hypocrisy doesn’t play well with most Americans. They already know politicians have a tendency to be elitist hypocrites, feed that fire with some good old facts.

The solution is measured, appropriate action in massive quantity. Pull people toward us, don’t push them away. Act as if your life depends on it because it just may. What are you going to do TODAY? What can you do during your lunch break? What about for 30 minutes tonight?

You have a natural right of self-protection that you enjoy today because patriots banded together and gave their life so that you can be free. Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring; liberty is the one gift we must give to our children and grandchildren just as it was handed down to us.

Dear Sir:
Many are dismayed by the recent Colorado law restricting firearms. But a cursory reading shows that the law only applies to "persons liable" and not the people at large.

Regarding any new law, tax or regulation, remember to ask servant government:
[ ] Whose endowed rights are being secured by this ?
[ ] How and when did I give consent to be bound by this ?
[ ] What privilege is the subject of this tax ?

Because the Declaration of Independence states that
Job #1 = secure rights, and
Job #2 = govern those who consent.

As to consent, let us recall that the republican form of government, as defined, recognizes that the American people are sovereigns, served - not ruled - by government.

Furthermore, the courts recognize that the laws are often limited in scope and applicability.

"In common usage, the term 'person' does not include the sovereign, [and] statutes employing the [word] are ordinarily construed to exclude it."
Wilson v. Omaha Indian Tribe, 442 U.S. 653, 667, 61 L.Ed2. 153, 99 S.Ct. 2529 (1979)
(quoting United States v. Cooper Corp. 312 U.S. 600, 604, 85 L.Ed. 1071, 61S.Ct. 742 (1941)).

"A Sovereign cannot be named in any statute as merely a 'person' or 'any person'".
Wills v. Michigan State Police, 105 L.Ed. 45 (1989)

If you thought "government" was sovereign, read these:

The people of the state, as the successors of its former sovereign, are entitled to all the rights which formerly belonged to the king by his own prerogative.
Lansing v. Smith, (1829) 4 Wendell 9, (NY)

At the Revolution, the sovereignty devolved on the people and they are truly the sovereigns of the country.
Chisholm v. Georgia, 2 Dall. 440, 463

It will be admitted on all hands that with the exception of the powers granted to the states and the federal government, through the Constitutions, the people of the several states are unconditionally sovereign within their respective states.
Ohio L. Ins. & T. Co. v. Debolt 16 How. 416, 14 L.Ed. 997

In America, however, the case is widely different. Our government is founded upon compact. Sovereignty was, and is, in the people.
[ Glass v. The Sloop Betsey, 3 Dall 6 (1794)]

Sovereignty itself is, of course, not subject to law, for it is the author and source of law; but in our system, while sovereign powers are delegated to the agencies of government, sovereignty itself remains with the people, by whom and for whom all government exists and acts.
[Yick Wo v. Hopkins, 118 U.S. 356, 370 (1886)]

Finally, a non-legal reference that shows our ancestors were better informed:

ALIEN, n.  An American sovereign in his probationary state.
- "The Devil's Dictionary" (1906), by Ambrose Bierce

His audience knew what an "American sovereign" was, to understand the joke.

Reference:
GOVERNMENT (Republican Form of Government) "One in which the powers of sovereignty are vested in the people and are exercised by the people ... directly ..."
- Black's Law Dictionary, Sixth Edition, P. 695

BTW - citizens, by definition, are subjects, because they are obligated to perform mandatory civic duties (i.e., militia duty, jury duty, etc.).
There is no such thing as a sovereign citizen (with a lower case "c".) Which also means that if American people are sovereigns, no one was "born" a U.S. citizen unless they were (a) slaves and (b) outside the jurisdiction of the 50 States united (see: 13th Amendment).

With My Regards, - J.G.

JWR Replies: Sovereignty claims are root-level jurisdictional challenges to the court's relationship to the defendant. While I agree with what you've written in principle, as a practical matter for the past 30+ years the American courts have run roughshod over anyone who has attempted to make any such jurisdictional arguments. This has been true at every level--all the way from local traffic courts up to Federal tax courts. In effect they've corralled everyone into their jurisdiction, and they have selectively tossed out any legal precedents that they dislike, especially those dating from before 1913. Once you step inside their courts, they have you. Even those who rightfully claim to be outside of their synthetic jurisdiction become ensnared by it. And virtually all of the policing organizations enforce that make-believe jurisdiction, despite its contrived origin. So no matter where you go in the 50 States, you are likely to end up in the court system at some point in your life, and 99 times out of 100 you will lose, and this is regardless of how many precedent cases you cite.

Over the past 25 years I've spent hundreds and hundreds of hours researching this, and everything that I've read leads me to the same conclusion: There is precious little justice left in our justice system. It is now more of a "just us" system. And their definition "us" includes just The Powers That Be. My heart goes out to those who have tried to use sovereignty and other jurisdictional arguments in the courts, but the sad truth is that those arguments are regularly ignored--regardless of their relevance, their merit, or their import. We are now faced with a well-entrenched court system that is adjudicating statutory cases (malum prohibitum) just as if they were malum in se cases.

Don't expect to find any "silver bullets" in case citations that pre-date their more recently created (and corrupted) court system. In effect, the courts are now little more than tools of the cabal formed by the fractional reserve bankers, the statist/collectivist state and Federal legislatures, the FDR/BHO school of executive action, and their taxing agents with the BATFE and the IRS. If you fight them on jurisdictional grounds you will nearly always lose. Tilting at windmills may seem noble, but it isn't when they've put liens on your bank accounts, garnished your wages, snatched your kids with their CPS goons, thrown you in jail, or caused you to lose your job/shut down your own business. I've seen many lives, marriages and fortunes ruined by folks who did not choose their fights wisely. Be wise as serpents and meek as lambs. Don't go to war with them over trifles!

Yes, I know, I know, "The first in the order of pleadings is to the jurisdiction" and a court can't proceed with the facts of a case until its jurisdiction has been established. And yes, there are some strong cites out there, such as:

"Once challenged, jurisdiction cannot be assumed, it must be proved to exist." Stuck v. Medical Examiners, 94 Ca 2d 751. 211 P2d 389.

"Once jurisdiction is challenged, the court cannot proceed when it clearly appears that the court lacks jurisdiction, the court has no authority to reach merits, but, rather, should dismiss the action." Melo v. US, 505 F2d 1026.

"A universal principle as old as the law is that a proceedings of a court without jurisdiction are a nullity and its judgment therein without effect either on person or property." Norwood v. Renfield, 34 C 329; Ex parte Giambonini, 49 P. 732.

"The law requires proof of jurisdiction to appear on the record of the administrative agency and all administrative proceedings." Hagans v. Lavine, 415 U. S. 533.

"A court cannot confer jurisdiction where none existed and cannot make a void proceeding valid. It is clear and well established law that a void order can be challenged in any court" Old Wayne Mit. L. Aassoc. v. McDonough, 204 U. S. 8, 27 S. Ct. 236 (1907).

"There is no discretion to ignore lack of jurisdiction." Joyce v. U.S. 474 2D 215.

"Court must prove on the record, all jurisdiction facts related to the jurisdiction asserted." Latana v. Hopper, 102 F. 2d 188; Chicago v. New York, 37 F Supp. 150.

"The law provides that once State and Federal Jurisdiction has been challenged, it must be proven." Main v. Thiboutot, 100 S. Ct. 2502 (1980).

"Jurisdiction can be challenged at any time." and "Jurisdiction, once challenged, cannot be assumed and must be decided." Basso v. Utah Power & Light Co., 495 F 2d 906, 910.

"Defense of lack of jurisdiction over the subject matter may be raised at any time, even on appeal." Hill Top Developers v. Holiday Pines Service Corp., 478 So. 2d. 368 (Fla 2nd DCA 1985)

"There is no discretion to ignore that lack of jurisdiction." Joyce v. US, 474 F2d 215.

"The burden shifts to the court to prove jurisdiction." Rosemond v. Lambert, 469 F2d 416.

"Jurisdiction is fundamental and a judgment rendered by a court that does not have jurisdiction to hear is void ab initio." In Re Application of Wyatt, 300 P. 132; Re Cavitt, 118 P2d 846.

"Thus, where a judicial tribunal has no jurisdiction of the subject matter on which it assumes to act, its proceedings are absolutely void in the fullest sense of the term." Dillon v. Dillon, 187 P 27.

"A court has no jurisdiction to determine its own jurisdiction, for a basic issue in any case before a tribunal is its power to act, and a court must have the authority to decide that question in the first instance." Rescue Army v. Municipal Court of Los Angeles, 171 P2d 8; 331 US 549, 91 L. ed. 1666, 67 S.Ct. 1409.

But good luck citing those decisions in today's courts! In most instances they will simply be ignored. The courts are no longer concerned with what is right, fair, and just. Rather, they are concerned with gathering revenue and perpetuating their new-found powers.

The only good news that I have to offer is that although jurisdictional challenges have been consistently ignored, there has at least been some success in getting juries to nullify bad laws. I enthusiastically support the Fully Informed Jury Association. In summary: We The People have failed to convince the judges that they lack jurisdiction over Sovereigns, but at least we can still educate the juries of our peers, and convince them to nullify bad laws, on a case-by-case basis. As long as there is still a jury system for criminal trial in this country, then there is still hope for justice.

If ever you end up in court fighting an unconstitutional felony charge or if you are at risk of losing custody of your children to the state, then yes by all means, challenge the court's jurisdiction from the very outset. But if you fail that, then do your utmost to educate the jury that they have the long-established power to weigh both the facts of the case and the validity of the law itself. Lex mala, lex nulla! And jury nullification can work regardless of the wording of the Jury Instructions from the court. In the end, once the jury room door is shut, the judge is powerless and your fate it is entirely up to the jury. May God Bless You and Protect Your Liberty!

Just as I warned SurvivalBlog readers, it appears that the BHO Administration is taking executive action on firearms importation. Take a few minutes to read this: After Senate setback, Obama quietly moving forward with gun regulation. Here is the key portion of the article:

"The Importation of Defense Articles and Defense Services -- U.S. Munitions Import List references executive orders, amends ATF regulations and clarifies Attorney General authority “to designate defense articles and defense services as part of the statutory USML for purposes of permanent import controls,” among other clauses specified in heavy legalese requiring commensurate analysis to identify just what the administration’s intentions are. Among the speculations of what this could enable are concerns that importing and International Traffic in Arms Regulations [ITAR] may go forward to reflect key elements within the United Nations Arms Trade Treaty." [Emphasis added.]

Depending on how it is implemented, the implications of this change could be huge. With the stroke of a pen and without the consent of Congress, ATF bureaucrats could make ANY gun part or accessory (including magazines) or ammunition that were originally manufactured or perhaps even those designed for military use no longer legal for importation for civilian use. That might mean no more milsurp parts sets. No more milsurp magazines. No more milsurp ammo. No more milsurp optics. Perhaps not even spare firing pins. This could be ugly.

I strongly recommend that you stock up on magazines, ammunition and spare parts for any of your imported military pattern guns, as soon as possible! Once an import ban is implemented, prices will skyrocket. Importation of Chinese military guns and ammunition was banned during the Clinton Administration, but importers quickly worked around that, by tapping other sources. But imagine if all of the channels for military surplus are cut off. That mean no more spam cans of any of the Russian calibers, no more battle packs of .223 or .308, and no more affordable AK, HK, FAL, Galil, or SIG magazines.

This may be just the first of several executive actions/orders. There is also the possibility of a blanket ban on the importation of any civilian magazines (Glock, SIG, Beretta, etc.) of more than 10 round capacity, by declaring them "non-sporting." There is a precedent for that, as well, set in 1989. That ban could be grossly widened. And don't look for too much support from American gun makers on this issue. They actually benefit from import bans. They benefited in 1968, when import of most of the milsurp rifles stopped. And they benefited again with the 1989 Import Ban.

Don't dawdle. Be proactive! If you wait until after the door slams shut, then you will be paying two or three times the price. If there is a gun show near you this weekend, then you should be there, with a wad of cash. - J.W.R.

Dear Editor,
I am an emergency physician practicing in Southern Californistan. I share TXNurse's concern about influenza in general, and especially new variants of Avian Influenza, like H7N9.   Her information is current and valuable.  I would urge standard OPSEC on this information if you are a nurse or physician or other health worker.

Many of my colleagues pooh-pooh my concerns about Influenza.  They just don't believe it.  And these are educated physicians!  Given many of them are liberal and believe FEMA will protect them and all that, but even so you would expect a nod from other physicians about the threat, given the history of the Great Pandemic of 1916-1918.   

Our family knows the value of OPSEC.  We just don't discuss our preparations, especially as to Influenza.  My wife, a Nurse by the way, and I already monitor world influenza cases, and have email alerts regarding influenza.  

One thing we have done that others may find helpful is to have pre-determined sentinel events for keeping our children home from school and implementing quarantine.  Our quarantine triggers involve cases in adjoining states, a pattern of progressive number of cases, and so on.  Our triggers may not fit yours, so research the data as to your local situation and prayerfully make a decision.

One more note regarding OPSEC.  Two months ago our doorbell rang about 9PM.  Odd.  While I went to the door, our son stood by at the ready.  It was a previous ER patient who wanted me to loan him money for rent.  I expressed my concern, but told him I couldn't loan him money and suggested some alternatives.  I don't know how he made my address, but nowadays your address is all over the Web.   This rattled me, and I told one of my few Prepper ER doc friends about it.  He reminded me to drive home by different routes when I get off shift.  

FWIW, I am not an epidemiologist.  I'm just an ER Doc.  - Doc C.J.

Influenza A viruses originate from various avian species, and almost exclusively begin in China. Influenza A viruses have always infected many different species of birds. Often initially seen in one species, they frequently cross over and cause illness in another species, this is called mixing, mutation or antigenic drift. This is how new subtypes of viruses are created. Eventually these viruses progress until they mutate enough to become infective to mammalian hosts (us). These viruses can be highly infective, easily transmissible and very lethal in humans. Most of us have probably heard of the H1N1 virus that took a substantial toll on the world’s population in 2009, and continues to be a threat during flu season. Many still may be familiar with H5N1. This subtype appeared around 1997 in China and has made slow progress to become more adaptable with human to human transmission (H2H). In the last 10 days China has made announcements (almost daily) of cases of severe influenza that has been subtyped as H7N9. This particular strain has been known to infect birds, but up until this point not humans. The number of cases daily, including deaths has been alarming. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) are taking this new development very seriously. What the 3 subtypes mentioned above have in common is that when they first appeared they are what scientists and virologists call Novel subtypes (meaning new to humans). Depending on the way they have mutated and adapted to become infective to humans has a lot to do with how lethal they are to us. The unique genetic sequences of these viruses also give virologists insight into how lethal they may be, and what their “case fatality rate” (CFR), may be on the general population.

My intent on writing this article is to make it as easy as possible for everyone to understand the importance of how serious a novel pandemic can be to us without getting bogged down with the scientific terms, and how important it is for us as prepared individuals to know how to handle and stockpile for a pandemic with a high CFR. My background is in critical care. For the past 24 years I’ve worked in an Intensive Care Unit, and have taken care of numerous influenza patients. We had quite a few patients on ventilators in 2009, and we lost some young people with serious pneumonias and multi organ failure. I have always been interested in epidemiology and in the mid-1990s began researching influenzas extensively. What has me particularly worried about H7N9 is the rapid development of this novel subtype, and the possibility that there is already human to human transmission. As of 4/12/13 China has reported 49 cases, 11 deaths, many remaining critical and only two recoveries. This may not sound worrisome to most people, but if you knew how difficult it is to get accurate information and numbers out of China, it is quite astounding that they are admitting to these cases so quickly! This leads me to believe that there are many more still unreported. We do not have a complete picture yet, with possible “mild” cases factored into the numbers, but the numbers we do have show an extremely high CFR (probably greater than 50%). In comparison the last great pandemic in our recent history was the Spanish Flu of 1918, it had a CFR of 2% and it killed approximately 50 – 100 million people world wide. The World Heath Organization, CDC, and much of the scientific community believe it is only a matter of time before another novel pandemic virus hits the world again. Normally in each century the world has approximately three flu pandemics, this was the case in the last century, we had two mild pandemics in 1957 and 1968, which increased the overall mortality rates throughout the world, but not significantly, and still had the elderly and infirm as its primary victims. The Spanish Flu in 1918 was quite different in the fact that its primary victims were young and healthy people in their prime. Scientists believe this was primarily due to something called a “cytokine storm”, which occurs most frequently in the young healthy population, allowing a person’s own immune system to over react and attack vital organs, especially the lungs. This is also what we saw to some extent with the H1N1 virus in 2009. Currently with H7N9 victims the reports have stated that most became very hypoxic (short of breath) fairly soon, and most progressed rapidly to multi organ failure.

Effects of Past Pandemics on the United States
Pandemic    Estimated U.S. Deaths      Influenza A Strain     Populations at Greatest Risk

1918-1919       500,000                            H1N1                      young, healthy adults
1957-1958         70,000                            H2N2                      infants, elderly
1968-1969         34,000                            H3N2                      infants, elderly
2009-2010         18,300                            H1N1 (swine)         young, healthy adults

Please note that all these recent pandemics had a CFR of 2% or less. World wide the current CFR for the slow adapting H5N1 virus is greater than 60%, which means that every 6 out of 10 people who have caught the H5N1 virus have died! I shutter to think what the CFR will be for the H7N9 virus that appears to be adapting to humans at a much faster pace.

Seasonal Flu vs. Pandemic Flu what is the difference?

The seasonal flu is the normal flu we see arrive every year usually starting sometime in the fall and lasting until sometime in the spring. Each year we see slightly different variations of influenza virus subtypes that have been around for awhile, and most of us have some antibodies and immunity to some of these subtypes. So when it comes time to look at making the next season’s flu vaccine our influenza specialists usually look at the three most prevalent subtypes we just had and begin to culture these viruses in fertilized eggs (scientists are working on cell based vaccines now for faster deployment of vaccines, soon to be common place I hope) and then combine them to come up with our new vaccine for the coming flu season (this is the simple version). The process to make a new vaccine usually takes about 6 months. The seasonal flu can target 5 – 30% of the population, and usually makes you feel horrible for about a week or so. Complications arise in people with compromised immune systems and in the very young and elderly. Deaths occur usually from a secondary pneumonia infection. Getting your flu vaccine every year greatly reduces your chances of getting the flu. The experts who just made the new vaccine are hoping the new subtype out for the season will at least be partly covered by the vaccine. I’ve heard many people say they “got the flu” from the shot. That really is not possible as the vaccine is made from a “killed” virus, your arm may hurt and some people may have a slight fever, with minimal other discomforts, but I believe you are better off being vaccinated.

A pandemic flu occurs when we have an avian species coming up with a new subtype that we have no antibodies or immunity to. The virus goes through several stages until it mixes and mutates to become easily transmissible to humans. This novel strain can possibly be very lethal. “Pandemic” simply means it will become a global problem (because of the newness). A global pandemic flu will likely target greater than 50% of the world’s population due to the fact that none of us has any immunity.

Consequences of a Global Flu Pandemic

In a typical disaster which usually happens to a localized area or country, resources are mobilized to help with the recovery. In a global flu pandemic there are no resources from unaffected regions to mobilize, it will be every region, every country, every family fending for themselves. In a global pandemic the disaster is unrelenting (up to 12 – 18 months), which will thwart any effort to recover. Hospitals will be overwhelmed in days to 1 – 2 weeks. Because of our “just in time delivery systems” that every corporation now uses, medical supplies will become nonexistent in days. The hospital I work in usually has a pharmacy delivery twice a day. As an example of the systemic system weakness people will walk off their jobs and go home due to the fear of catching the flu and bringing it home to their loved ones. This will greatly affect our supply chains for all our resources; groceries, medicines, fuel, etc. Hospitals are not just made up of Doctors and nurses, we have ancillary departments that are fundamental in the care and operation of our hospitals. Suppose just one department, like Nutritional Services is affected first, either by fear of coming to work, or by people who have caught the flu, how do our patients get fed? Within days many departments in the hospital will be depleted of personnel, again either by not coming into work, or becoming victims of the flu. Emergency Room departments will be completely over run very quickly, and unfortunately in most cases there is not a whole lot we can do medically for people with a viral infection. Flu usually has to run its course, and if we do not have IV fluids for hydration and any antivirals left, how do we care for these people? People requiring a ventilator for lung support will be out of luck, as this number could be in the thousands, or worse, millions. Our hospital has 5 ventilators at any given time, in times of extra need we can rent maybe 1 or 2 more in our area. It is my firm belief that if we had a global pandemic occur with a high CFR we will be taking care of our own sick, at home. The smartest way is to prepare ahead of time with supplies at home, and be prepared to quarantine your family during the event.

What are the Symptoms of the Flu?

Pretty much what we are already familiar with: sore throat, cold, fever, chills, nausea, vomiting and muscle aches. Warning signs for an immediate Doctor or ER visit would include severe acute shortness of breath, bluish skin (fingers, lips, etc.), seizures and dehydration.

What is the incubation period for catching the flu?

The time between human exposure and onset of illness (incubation period) is usually 2 – 4 days, sometimes up to 7 days. (If I had my family in isolation/lock down for a pandemic and another family member came, I would quarantine them for up to 14 days).

How long does a Pandemic last?

Generally flu pandemics come in three waves, with the second wave usually being the worst. For a global pandemic you are usually looking at up to possibly eighteen months for the three waves to have made their rounds and begin to subside. Currently the CDC has stated that in the recent past they have tried to make a H7 vaccine “just in case” and have had difficultly with it conveying immunity. This may be a big problem for us, as it could take up to a year or more to have a vaccine available to vaccinate our total population.

How contagious is the flu?

The influenza virus can live on an inanimate surface for up to 48 hours; it can live on your clothes for up to 8 hours.

How is the flu spread?

The flu can be spread by droplet infection: coughing, sneezing, bodily fluids. It can be spread by direct contact: shaking hands, door knobs, computer keyboards, shopping carts, etc. The flu can also be airborne, and many influenza experts call for social distancing during a pandemic while out in public or at work (6-10 feet), and if you are out in public during a pandemic you should be wearing personal protective equipment  (PPEs).

What can I do to prepare my family for a pandemic?

Make sure your family members are up to date on their vaccines, such as the annual flu vaccine (this could possibly convey some immunity to a new virus, not really sure if it would or not). The pneumovax vaccine is also very important, this protects against 23 types of bacterial pneumonia. Hepatitis A is not a bad idea if our utilities are not working and we are forced to drink or eat questionable water or food. A tetanus vaccine is also important, as everyone should have one every 10 years. Be sure to contact your own Physician and discuss these maters with her/him.

The single most important thing we can do during a flu pandemic while at home, work or in public is practice good hand washing skills. This means using plenty of soap with warm to hot water and scrubbing 30 – 40 seconds, remember to get the back of your hands and in between your fingers, under your nails and up your arms. Rinse thoroughly and dry with a paper towel and then turn off the water with the paper towel, so as not to contaminate your hands on the dirty faucet handle. Using a alcohol based hand sanitizer is also recommended (not a antibacterial soap that is not alcohol based). To use this thoroughly wet your hands with the sanitizer and let air dry, do not towel dry. If you are sneezing or coughing be sure to use Kleenex, and properly dispose of them, if Kleenex is not available sneeze into the fabric of your shirt sleeve. I think sneezes have been clocked at 200 miles/hour, that can really travel some distance! Frequently clean your work surfaces at home and at work with either germicidal wipes or a weakened bleach solution (one part bleach to 4 parts water), don’t forget your telephones and computers!

Medicines and Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs)

Lets talk about antivirals first: Neuraminidase Inhibitors have been proven to be effective for some people during normal flu seasons and also with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, and for some of the unfortunate people who contracted the H5N1 subtype, these antivirals may not prevent the flu, but they can lessen the severity and duration of the flu. Some of these antivirals are Tamiflu, and Relenza and the M2 inhibitors Amantadine and Rimantadine. If you have an understanding physician try talking to them now and see if you can get some prescriptions for these drugs. The first two listed have proven to be the most effective, but depending on the specific subtype, some of the viruses have become resistant to the antivirals. Please be sure your home is stocked with plenty of pain and fever reducers. Also be sure you have working thermometers on hand. Have a blood pressure cuff at home and learn how to use it properly; low BP can be one of the first signs of complications.

Particulate Respirator Masks – these ideally should be “fit tested” to be worn properly, you could try going by your local hospital and see if they could show you the proper way to wear the mask. If that is not possible be sure the mask fits snuggly around your face covering your nose and mouth without leak areas (guys….this means no mustaches or beards). These masks must be NIOSH approved N95 rating or higher. A surgical mask is a second (although poor) alternative if respirators are unavailable. One mask can usually be worn for approximately 8 hours, if it has not become soiled, contaminated (taking off and on), or becomes too moist. Nitrile, latex, or vinyl (if you have a latex allergy) single use exam gloves. These come in boxes of 100, you can find them cheap at Sam’s or Costco. The masks can be ordered from places like medical supply companies. You need to have a lot of these on hand, try to get appropriate sizes for your kids if you can. You also need eye protection, wear goggles or a face shield. Goggles should have the side protectors, these can be found at medical supply companies and stores like Lowe’s or Home Depot. Often I have seen pictures of people in the world wearing only masks and not goggles during a pandemic, this was especially evident during the SARS out break. With droplet infections you are contaminated by coughing and sneezes into your mucous membranes…..that includes your eyes! Don’t forget your alcohol based hand sanitizers, and germicidal wipes.

Gowns – a long sleeved cuffed disposable gown may be needed for direct care for an infected person.
 If you are caring for an infected person at home in the case of a severe pandemic and hospitals are closed or full be sure to isolate and quarantine this person to a separate part of the house if at all possible, and have only one primary care person who always wears their PPEs. Keep all materials to care for the infected also separate. Be sure to dispose of  any items that may be soiled or contain bodily fluids very carefully, and away from other family members.

Hydration of the person with flu is extremely important, especially if a hospital is not available. This can prove daunting for someone with nausea and vomiting, but it is imperative if you are the care giver to keep trying to push fluids.

Electrolyte drink
½ tsp. baking soda
½ tsp. table salt
3-4 tbsp. sugar
1 quart water
Mix well, flavor with lemon or sugar free Kool Aid.

Keep a daily record of the person who is ill, include temp, blood pressure, and respirations. Also take daily temps of other members of your family (with a separate thermometer), and be prepared to separate and isolate any additional family members who you believe may be becoming ill. Make sure the infected person is urinating regularly, and in good amounts, if they aren’t this is the first sign of dehydration, or worse, possible kidney failure.

As preppers we all strive to protect our families and loved ones as best we can, a pandemic with a severe CFR would be devastating to the world. Personally this would be one of my tipping points in calling all family members home and staying home, no one in or out for the duration. I would be praying that they come up with a vaccine within a year.

I sincerely hope none of us has to deal with a pandemic with a high CFR in our future, but if we do please prepare now with the items you may need. I will never forget watching scenes from Toronto, during the SARS epidemic, of people selling simple surgical masks on street corners for $10 each! Like with everything else we prepare for now, this is just another possibility in the crazy, crowded world we live in.

Please stay healthy and God Bless.

Disclaimer: This information is not intended to replace the advice of a doctor. The author and web site disclaim any liability for the decision you make based on this information.

Hurricane Sandy tore through the northern eastern seaboard.  The hurricane combined with two other weather systems to create a Super storm (Some say).  The Hurricane or Super Storm created a destructive path that hasn’t been seen this far up north, ever.  Homes were damaged, properties were destroyed, and lives were lost.  This Hurricane had a lot to teach us.  A lot of us (Preppers) were prepared for this storm and tested our emergency plan for the first time, in real time.  We got to learn a lot about our emergency plan and some of us will patch the holes in our plans, if any.

What Happened:

Hurricane Sandy came through the Tri-State Area (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut), Maryland, and Pennsylvania with a force that hasn’t been seen in over a hundred years.  Hurricane Sandy ripped through cities, towns, and neighborhoods without any prejudice.  Hurricane Sandy also sent storm surges to drown out these areas.  High winds tore through homes and properties.  People were killed, injured and left homeless.  The Jersey Shores, Coney Island, Long Island, and parts of New York City’s landscape were changed forever.  24 states were effect by the Super Storm Sandy, Canada, and the Caribbean islands.  Hurricane Sandy reached a recorded 980 miles in diameter.

The Problems:

Evacuation Routes:  Many evacuation routes were compromised during and after Hurricane Sandy. Some people waited too long to leave while others tried to stay and found out the hard way that, that wasn’t a good choice. Train tunnels floods as well as traffic tunnels.  Bridges were shut down due to high winds. Some tried to leave after the storm and found out they couldn’t leave.  Taking evacuation advice seriously is a must and not something to take lightly. For this reason having more than one evacuation route is very important and so is leaving early.

Flooding:  Many cities, towns, and neighborhoods along the northeastern seaboard took on more water than anticipated.  The water moved with a force ripping houses off their foundations and relocating others somewhere in the area.  Vehicles were floating down the street.  Entire boardwalks were ripped away from their foundations, swept into the ocean and in many cases found more than a mile inland.  The massive amounts of salt water destroyed homes, basements, businesses, emergency services facilities, medical facilities and vehicles.  People drown from the flooding as well.  Some people were caught in there basements as the water came into their homes trapping them.  Two kids were swept away by waves of water.  The floods were made of a perfect combination of high winds, high tide, and a full moon all happening simultaneously. The highest recorded surge was in Battery Park City, New York at 13.8ft.

High Wind Conditions:  Trees, power lines, homes, and a sky crane were damage by high-sustained winds.  The sustain winds were as high as 80 mph. The gust of winds reached 109 mph.  The winds were not expected to be as high in the first reports of the hurricane’s approach.  The high winds also helped the water surge onto land.  The high winds also killed people as it sent trees through homes and debris into the air.  High winds also knocked the face of a building off and shook many buildings.  The high wind caused roof of homes to be ripped off, windows blown out, and homes to collapse. 

Power Outages: 8.5 million people (roughly) lost power due to Hurricane Sandy.  This included a power station in New York City, which had an explosion causing 800,000 customers to lose power. The power was knocked out due to high winds, fallen trees and tidal flooding.  The Hurricane caused black outs that could be seen from space satellites.  Hospitals and Nursing Homes had to be evacuated due to power loss and flooding. “Customers” went days, weeks, or even months without power.  Businesses were destroyed due to power outage. Rotting food and loss of income put some businesses out of business, for good. Even now, some homes still do not have power (2/11/2013).  With the power outage came something most people didn’t know about. Waste management systems dumped its waste into the surrounding bays, channels, and rivers due to loss of power. So, the floodwaters were contaminated as well.

Property Damage:  There was an estimate of 71.4 billion of dollars in damages that spread across 24 states.  As we all saw, homes were displaced from their foundation by tidal flooding carrying the homes away.  In some cases, home were found in completely different neighborhoods from their original location. If homes weren’t carried away by the floodwaters, then the homes were just flooded, which caused mold to grow in the days to come.  Trees fell through home, completely destroying the structure. Tens of thousands of vehicles were totaled due to flooding and tree falling on them.  Fires ripped through homes as well, mixed with the high winds turned the fire into a blowtorch, destroying hundreds of homes.  Boardwalks were ripped from their century old foundations as some of you seen with the New Jersey Shore boardwalk in Seaside Heights.  Sand also played a roll in destroying home, vehicles, and business. Sand from the ocean floor and beaches were brought onto land by wind and water.

Complete Destruction Of Areas and Neighborhoods:  Areas and neighborhoods were completely destroyed due to Hurricane Sandy. Breezy Point in New York was destroyed due to wind, water, and fire.  Over a hundred home were destroyed by fire.  A few thousand homes were flooded.  Some homes had their roofs blown off.  A few homes were relocated to other nearby neighborhoods via water.  The New York Aquarium on Coney Island was partial destroyed due to floodwaters and power loss.  Most of New Jersey’s shores were destroyed.  Some of the boardwalks were completely destroyed and pushed further inland or dragged out to sea.

Looting and Robberies: Looting came as no surprise to anyone but a few guys did try and break into a bank during the height of the storm.  They try to use a pickup truck to get the job done but once they rammed through the glass doors. They had no plan of action after that. Need less to say, they got nothing.  Some of the big chain stores were looted during the storm but once the storm passed. The looting picked up in pace and locations in New York City, I am not sure if looting took place in other states.  The police did a good job ending the looting spree here in New York City.  There were reports of robberies in some areas of the city after the storm passed.  There was one report of people being robbed for their emergency disaster supplies that had been given to them by Red Cross (I only heard that once during a news broadcast.)  Burglaries also spiked in neighborhoods that were hit hard and had less people due to evacuations.

After The Storm:

There were a lot of issues that arose from the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Getting power back on for people. Logistics for disturbing food, water, and other necessary items for people became a problem.  Housing people who lost their homes became an issue too.  Lack of fuel was also an unforeseen problem.  A few deaths occurred from this storm as well. Some of these problems could have been avoided had the city had a better emergency preparation plan. 

Deaths: 118 people in the U.S. were killed due to Hurricane Sandy. 1 person in Canada and 69 people in Caribbean was also killed.  Some people were killed by floods, while others were killed by flying debris and falling trees.  Some people were even electrocuted.

Lack Of Supplies: There were huge problems with the distribution of food and water to those places that needed the help.  There was a breakdown in communication as to where and when food and water were going to be given out.  In Red Hook, Brooklyn, New York people showed up to the assigned time and place to receive their emergency provisions but instead the time would be changed to hours later.  Minor incidents broke out at these distribution locations.  Some fighting was reported but most were arguments that were reported by people who waited on line.  Some people had to resort to getting their water from open water hydrants and walk miles to get there food from neighborhoods that had power.  People in lower Manhattan had to walk north for food, which in some cases was better than a 5-mile walk.  Breezy Point, New York had the most help dedicated to them but even then Red Cross and FEMA dropped the ball.  Shelter became another issue for those that lost their homes.  People were taken to schools, armories, and churches after the storm.  The temporary occupants from a homeless shelter on Rockaway, New York trashed one school by urinating on the lunchroom floors, feces in the water fountain, and food discarded throughout the school.  The lack of logistics and communication breakdown made everything harder than it had to be.

Lack Of Fuel: The lack of fuel was a combination effect.  From gas stations having no power to retrieve the gas from the ground to refineries being shut down due to lack of power or terminals being destroyed due to floods, wind damage, and power loss.  Waterways for importing fuel were also closed due to debris blocking the waterway.  On top of all that 350,000 gallons of diesel fuel spilled in the Arthur Kill Waterway in New Jersey, closing that waterway as well.  If gas stations would have had back up generators or emergency pump systems to retrieve the gas, that might of alleviated some of the gas problems. If refineries would of set their backup generators on higher ground like some of them could of done, then that would of cut down on the fuel shortage days.  Fights and arguments broke out on these gasoline lines, one guy got arrested for pulling a knife on another man just to skip the line.  There was free gasoline being given out at one point. Luckily I filled up my truck before the hurricane hit.  

What Didn’t Happen:

A stronger storm with the same conditions Hurricane Sandy had would have done far more damage.  If the winds were stronger way more trees, homes, and building would have been knocked down. More water would of reached further inland, flooding more homes and costing the states million dollars more.  More people would of died.  The recovery efforts would of taken a lot longer.  The fuel shortage would of taken months to recover.  Help from other states would have been minimal due to the fact that the storm might have been bigger in diameter and those neighboring states would have had to help themselves.  Now, just because Hurricane Sandy could have been stronger doesn’t mean that she would have been bigger but considering Sandy was a combination storm, she would’ve been bigger. Imagine if she would have been bigger in diameter.  Hurricane Sandy was 980 miles in diameter, that’s 560,000 square miles.

What I Learned:

I learned that I was more prepared than I original though.  For living in an apartment I had almost everything I needed for the storm.  I also learned that my wife could take care of herself.  I learned that she is actually paying more attention to me than I thought.  She took precautionary measure to assure our families’ safety while I was at work.

I should have had fuel canisters for extra fuel but I have nowhere to really store them in my apartment.  I was thinking at one point to store them on the fire escape but decide against it.  I need to get a battery-operated radio.  The hand crank radios are cool but only as a last resort.  Besides those two things I was pretty much squared away.

I also learned that water proofing most of your gear especially if you are going to keep your gear in the basement.  If you live in a flood zone and can only keep your gear in the basement.  You are going to have to finds a way to water proof all your gear if you want to keep it.  I heard of one prepper that lived in Breezy Point, lost everything due to flooding of his basement.

Bottom Line:

People need to be ready as our weather patterns are changing for the worst.  Having some stored foods and supplies will not break the bank.  Your family will thank you when the time comes.  You don’t have to prepare for the “end of the world” or an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack.  You should just be ready for things that are most likely going to happen such as bad weather emergencies.  There were people that haven’t recovered from Hurricane Irene and then get slammed with Hurricane Sandy.  Some people never even learned their lesson from Hurricane Irene. It is now time to take these lessons into consideration and take action into our own hands.

Conclusion:

People need to keep calm and be ready.  Depending on someone to come and help you sucks as many people are finding out in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.  Be able to help yourself out and be ready. No one is saying to put a years worth of food away but you should have something put away for those bad days. 

The Total Numbers: (As of March 30, 2013)

• Homes Destroyed From wind, fire, and water:  No exact number, yet

• Damage Cost: Over 71.4 Billion Dollars

• States Affected: 24

• Countries Affected: 2

• Loss Of Power: Over 6 million customers in 15 states

• Injuries: Unknown

• Deaths:  118 in the U.S., 2 in Canada, and 69 in the Caribbean.

Quick Tips:

• 5/8 thick wood boards and cut to fit windows. If you have shutters use them instead.
• Clear your gutters.
• Remove all loose items from porches, terraces, and backyards i.e. Grills, Lawn chairs and kid’s toys.
• Plan your evacuation route and then have a back up planned out as well.
• Prepare your vehicle for a possible evacuation. Fill your tank and have your bug out bag at the ready.
• Turn refrigerator to the coldest setting in case the power goes out and pack with plastic sheeting.
• Freeze a few plastic water bottles to keep your food cold.
• Test your generator.
• Fill up the bathtub using the WaterBob.
• Unplug all appliances and electronics t protect them from power surges and brown-outs.

Connecticut is known as a progenitor of American Liberty. There were some small War of Independence battles fought at Stonington (1775), Danbury (1777), New Haven (1779), and New London (1781.) But sadly, legislators in Connecticut just dutifully lined up for their Kool-Aid cups and voted for a ban so-called "assault" weapons, a ban on private party sales of used guns, creates a new "ammunition eligibility certificate," and mandates a ban on the manufacture or sale and a registry for high capacity magazines. Do these buffoons have any concept of how many millions of magazines larger that 10 round capacity exist, or that virtually none of them carry a serial number? How do they expect to register a commodity? And what happens if someone miscounts their magazines, or misses a few of them in some forgotten box in the back of a closet? Does that make them a felon? And how, pray tell, is someone supposed to register each link in a disintegrating belt? (The last time I bought .223 and .308 links, they came to me in boxes of roughly 1,000 or 2,000 links per box. They are difficult to count, so they are sold by the pound. You can buy 1,000 of them for as little as $17, and of course they can be assembled ("manufactured") into belts of any length desired. So exactly how will that part of the registry work? Would someone have to ask to have a belt de-registered, once it is fired and hence no longer of 11+ round length? And how could a belt be linked together longer than 9 rounds, after the effective date of the new law? Talk about "Unintended Consequences"!

Oh, and let's not forget the new Connecticut law's New York style "honor system" provision, which dictates that owners of full capacity magazines can load their magazines up to 30 cartridges, but only at home, but just 10 rounds if they are carried outside of their homes unless they're at an approved shooting range. Miscounting cartridges and loading just one too many would be a punishable offense. Stopping short of enacting an outright ban on full capacity magazines and this idiotic honor system provision were characterized as "gracious compromises." As one commenter at the Northeast Shooters Forum aptly put it: "... how generous our Overlords are." Do any Connecticut legislators believe that mass murderers will abide by any of this arbitrary nonsense?

It is noteworthy that the vote on this legislation came on Monday, April 1, 2013. (April Fools Days.) What fools (and tools) they are!

I urge Connecticut residents to do your best to fight this legislatively in the courts, but if all else fails, then vote with your feet. Speaking of which... I just heard that in light of this new legislation Todd Savage of SurvivalRetreatConsulting.com has announced that he has added Connecticut to his list of states that qualify for a 20% discount for "gun law refugee" clients. He is now extending the 20% discount to residents of California, Connecticut, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York who identify themselves as gun law refugees. - J.W.R.

Sir:
We have had cash on hand since Y2K, which became 9/11 cash, then 2008 crash cash. I agree with the author to be careful, because depositing/withdrawing or spending large amounts of cash can trigger a report to the authorities due to the Patriot Act, or cause other problems.

My own example is: In 2008 I withdrew $7,500 and closed an account at a failing bank. This money sat "under the mattress" so to speak, until just  a few months ago when I decided to purchase a small second home, using this cash as part of the down payment. I had about $5,000 left of the cash and put it in my current bank account so the mortgage company could "see" the money to be used for the down payment. (The teller indicated that $10,000 was the reportable level.)

However, since my cash deposit was within three months of its planned use for the down payment, the mortgage company would not let me use it!  All funds must be completely trackable, not cash, due to the Patriot Act. Even though I had banking records documenting my old bank closure and withdrawal, they would not accept this money in down payment. I was forced to obtain a money gift (completely documented as to the bank it came from,etc.) from a relative to get approved for my mortgage.

I don't know what would happen if I tried to buy a vehicle from a dealer with cash over $10,000 - it likely would be reportable.

Cash purchases, even smaller amounts, are becoming more restricted in Europe. And the Cyprus great depositor rip-off  increases the risks of banking your money. Credit card purchases are set to be mined and monitored by the US government, I have read. We are between a rock and a hard place.  

Here is some of what I have done for financial preparedness:

1. Transferred all of my IRA in 2009 from a big institution to a Self-Directed IRA (Unless you are very savvy, you must get a custodian - Entrust is a well-known one.) This enabled me to put my IRA into rental real estate, with an associated small bank account to receive rents and pay for expenses. I have chosen not to have precious metals in this IRA, because you cannot have custody. There are many other investments you can make through a self-directed IRA.

2. Junk silver. I do not trust that any recent purchases of gold will not be reported and later confiscated ala FDR in 1931.

3. Small amounts of money in my bank account, and small amounts of cash secured outside of the bank.

4. Purchase tangibles when I can. Next purchase is a truck. I have a whole list of things such as water storage, to spend any extra money on. Nothing is going to get cheaper in the future. I am a physician, so when I can I am also stocking up on medications.

Thank you for your great blog. - Colorado Doc

Mr. Rawles,
The other day I visited my local bank. I asked what the rate was for a certificate of Deposit (CD) or their various interest-bearing [passbook or checking] accounts. I was told the best rate they offered was .7% (Seven-tenths of one percent!)   That surprised me. Then it got me to thinking: What is the advantage of keeping my currency in the bank?  There, it is subject to being stolen by an identity thief or withdrawn from my account using fraudulent means. It is also within reach of the government (Think: Cyprus.)  If, for some reason, the bank fails my currency will be tied up for months as the FDIC pays the claim. So I reasoned it would serve me best if I withdrew my currency and kept it hidden on my property. I have a retreat of 80 acres that we now live full time on. I have over 850 [1-ounce] Silver Eagles and I may buy more. I don't feel comfortable putting all my eggs in one basket.  What do you think of my reasoning? - Tim P. in Oklahoma

JWR Replies: Your reasoning is sound. I recommend that folks keep just the minimum that they need in the bank for their monthly expenses. Cash and precious metals kept at home should be in a fire-resistant box that is hidden in a well-camouflaged wall or floor cache, or better yet in a concealed vault room.

Dear Editor:
In response to R.B. and his comments on "Things to Understand When Interacting With the Police," I'd like to share "Some Things He Needs to Understand When Interacting With Civilians."

We've long abandoned the idea that the police are interested in helping us when they interact with us. We expect, for good reason, that any encounter with a police officer is going to be a reminder that right or wrong, he or she is a cop, they must be respected no matter how inhumane their behavior, and that any error on the part of the officer is inconsequential. I may have to accept the ticket for allegedly running the red light, pay the fine, and suffer the insurance consequences, but if my dash cam video shows that the officer lied, the most I can expect is that the ticket is thrown out. No matter that my time was wasted in by a fraudulent traffic stop and a day off work to come in and prove my innocence in the absence of an officer actually being able to prove I was guilty. What we almost never see happen is that the officer is reprimanded for lying.

We also know that in nearly every encounter with police, the only reason they speak to us is to find something indictable. They aren't looking for a reason to exonerate us or for a reason not to cite or arrest us, and that means any discussion with a police officer has the potential to lead to consequences for us, and silence will never incriminate us. That is why we have a right to remain silent, and it's ludicrous for an officer to suggest that it's a good idea to talk to the police.

For the perspective that only 5% of defense attorneys are honest, I don't disagree, but that statistic can be just as easily applied to the police, but with a more insidious element; defense attorneys are only trying to defend the impropriety of their client (a potential criminal) while the police routinely defend the impropriety of each other.

There is no denying the fact that there are a lot of bad cops out there. They are truly a stain on the tradition of law enforcement, but the idea that they are a "few bad apples" ignores several facts. 1. Their fellow officers (the supposed 'good' cops) never interfere when one of these bad officers is violating someone's rights. 2. They usually cover for these bad cops, whether through silence, looking the other way, or outright lying. 3. The police enjoy immunity from the mistakes they make which often ruin lives.

These things considered, please don't be surprised that the public view of the image of law enforcement is crumbling. We are tired of the videos of perpetrators being assaulted by the police while not a single officer steps in to stop the assault. The ludicrousness of the police justifying their actions when they asphyxiate a subject and then beat him for "resisting" when his guttural instinct for survival kicks in. The repeated instances of the police demanding that civilians turn off cameras in public places, where they assault people for recording them, and where they illegally confiscate recording equipment which so often goes 'mysteriously' missing. This indicates two key problems; the police know that their words don't match their behaviors, and such evidence cannot be tolerated, and that we really need to think about the level of accountability among an institution that loses more video evidence (both police dash-cam and confiscated video) than Hollywood.

The one thing that is predictable in these discussions is that the blame for law-enforcement misbehavior is quickly directed back at the citizens, where civilians are somehow at fault for the misbehavior of the police and that we can't possibly understand why they do what they do. This is illogical and insulting. The bottom line is that the police are responsible for their own image, whether good cop or bad, and it's not enough to say "those are the bad cops, I'm a good cop" and leave it at that. Unless you are taking specific action to protect the citizens (as sworn?) from bad cops, then you are no better than them, falling somewhere on the 'respect' list between used car salesmen and the Nigerian prince who wants me to help him collect his inheritance. It's your responsibility as a police officer and as an institution to consider why your image is falling like a North Korean satellite, and to address ways of resolving it. Blaming us is not the answer. Calling other people a liar is not the answer. Look inward and then show a good faith effort the people who are losing trust and respect for you, and therein you might regain our trust.

One thing I've learned is that when an "executive officer of the state" tells me that someone else is lying, that someone else is probably telling the truth. We aren't "anti-police," we are anti-bad-police-establishment." - S.T.

Mr. Rawles,
The recent article by G.S. suggested that prepper's maintain a distrustful attitude when interacting with law enforcement personnel.  This was followed by R.B.'s disdainful view of the defense bar and belief that law enforcement personnel can be trusted to protect the constitution rights of citizens.  Taken together, these viewpoints demonstrate something that preppers should carefully consider; the law enforcement environment in which they are operating, and what steps to take to protect themselves.

I have no doubt that in the Western state that R.B. works to keep safe, law enforcement officers use common sense and can be trusted to understand the Constitutional rights of Americans.  Similarly, we have seen enough stories to know that there are parts of this country, certainly where G.S. resides, where police view Constitutional rights as nothing more than a hindrance and common sense plays little role in decision making.

It is vitally important to learn about your legal and law enforcement environment before significant contact with law enforcement, rather than after the fact.  Here are a couple ideas:

- Talk to a lawyer.   If you don't already have one or know one, it is much easier to shop around for a good plumber before your pipe breaks. The same is true for attorneys.  Ask around, find one with a good reputation.  Many attorneys will set up an appointment for a nominal fee.  While attorneys cannot divulge the content of your discussion, there is no need to share details about your preps, numbers of firearms, etc.  It may be enough to ask "what should I do if and intruder is on my property or breaking into my home?"  or "Do we have a 'stand-your-ground' law here?"  The answers may be different depending on where you live.

-Find out about the prosecutor in your area.  Is the prosecutor elected or a political appointment and if so, by whom?  Are judges elected or appointed?  Is your local prosecutor or police chief involved with anti-Second Amendment groups?  The mayor?   Does your local prosecutor have a history of filing charges against citizens protecting themselves and their families? 

-Learn about the police and sheriff.  Knowing what precinct and beat you live in is particularly helpful if you are monitoring a radio scanner or an online police scanner.   If there is a neighborhood police meeting, take the time to show up and meet the officers working in your area.   You can get a read on the officer's view of public safety and information about the crime trends in your area could be critical to your family's safety. 

-Check the news.  Have there been a string of police misconduct complaints?  In proven cases of misconduct, have offenders been punished or is everything swept under the rug?   Do the police have a written or unwritten policy of making an arrest every time someone defends them self from attack?

In many cases, the law enforcement environment in an area is reflective the quality of local government in general,  the area economy, level of personal freedom, and so forth.    When it comes to interactions with law enforcement, like everything else in preparedness, know your environment and have a plan.

How you would deal with a deputy who you know on a first name since grade school would be completely different than a police officer while visiting a major East coast city.   Regardless of your environment,

-Be courteous.  Presume that the officer is doing his job in a manner that deserves our respect. 

-Know your rights.  Don't think you know them, find out exactly what you can, cannot and must do in your jurisdiction.

-Do not lie.   You may have the right to stay silent, you don't have the right to say something is untrue.

-Keep your paperwork straight and vehicle in good working order.  Avoid interactions in the first place by ensuring your tags, insurance, etc. are up to date, and your vehicle is in good shape.  This is particularly important if you preparations include a bug-out plan using your vehicle.

-If you determine that an officer is acting in an inappropriate manner and you must invoke your Constitution rights to refuse to make a statement or consent to a search, continue to be courteous and even tempered.  If your rights are violated you can tell the judge, citizens review board, or other authority when the time is appropriate.

After reading both articles, I believe that both G.S. and R.B. are correct as concerns their locale.  Preppers should examine their own locale, and consider their own legal environment and what that environment might become in the event of a local or widespread disaster. - R.L.W.

 As I compose this essay the news of the proposed “taxation” of the depositors of the banks in Cypress via a confiscation of up to 9.9% of the balance from all savings accounts (and then the decision to not take that step) is rocking the financial world. The government of Cypress expressed the need for this measure in order to meet their obligation to the European Union. They called it a “tax on deposits” and “giving depositors a haircut”. I think a better term would be “stealing depositors’ money”.  So go to Plan B….seizing funds in pension accounts and turning them into government bonds to pay for the bailout? Plan C?

Of course that could never happen here in America.      Right ? 

Don’t think that for a moment.  First of all, put aside any preconceived notion that the markets are honest and fair to all participants. The multi-trillion dollar printing by the runaway Federal Reserve that is controlled by the mega-sized private banks is nothing more than another engineered plan to acquire your assets.  Artificially suppressing interest rates is essentially robbing blind every person who has money invested in a savings account, checking account, money market, or CD. The next step will be to orchestrate a plan to grab every last dollar held in IRAs, 401ks, pension accounts, etc. by those who control the money supply and have the mechanisms in place to manipulate the markets. The game is rigged…and you don’t stand a chance of surviving without implementing a plan of your own.

I have been a Certified Financial Planner for almost two decades and in the financial services industry as a stock broker with both a regional and wirehouse brokerage for a good number of years before that.  In 2005 I became an independent advisor because I could no longer stomach the corporate environment and how customers were forced into packaged products.  I have seen complete economic cycles over that period of time….falling and rising interest rates….business expansions and contractions….periods of relative peace as well as war…..boom and bust.  I have always been able to tell my clients that they could count upon the strength of American Industry, the American Workforce, the American Taxpayer, and the American Consumer to provide stability and steady growth to the American Economy. 

I have also been a prepper since the late 1970s. After returning from my wartime military service in Southeast Asia in early 1974, I watched the economy stagnate and then evolve into a chaotic jumble of escalating interest rates and soaring precious metals prices.  Americans contended with rising gasoline prices, shortages of heating oil as well as regulated natural gas supplies,  a hostage crisis in Iran, and the “general malaise” that Jimmy Carter told us was to blame for all our woes.  It wasn’t until the election of Ronald Reagan and some new economic policies that we were able to recover as a nation. Things improved, then got better. The 80’s and 90’s were good and productive years for America.

But the differences between yesterday and today are truly jaw-dropping.  Back then the U.S. was economically sound despite the expense of the Viet Nam War financed with newly printed dollars that were not backed by gold  (Nixon closed the window in 1971) and the growing  (but manageable) social welfare programs.  Tax revenues back then essentially covered and met the government’s expenditures.  One just knew that every economic downturn would be followed by recovery ….because that’s just the way things worked. 

Today the U.S. has spent the nation’s blood and treasure as well as our emotional capital on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. We have become involved in Libya, Egypt, and Syria.  Potential issues with Iran and North Korea loom large. There are 47 million people on food stamps. Unreported millions are unemployed. Spending on social programs has exploded.  The housing market collapsed and has never fully recovered. The banking system is on life support. The Federal Reserve is purchasing $85 billion dollars each month (a trillion dollars a year) in U.S. Treasury issues because no one else is willing to do so.  Despite government statistics and reports Inflation has driven prices on energy, food, clothing, health insurance, and everyday items beyond reason.  Expenditures outstrip tax revenues. Government spending is out of control and we are approaching $17 trillion dollars in national debt with untold (and unfathomable) amounts in promised future benefits, entitlements, mandates, and promissory notes.  By some estimates the U.S. has 238 TRILLION DOLLARS in unfunded liabilities.  We can’t cover it. We are flat busted.  And if our leadership refuses to address and fix the problem, the rest of the world will fix it for us.

People are genuinely concerned and are looking for answers. Yet they are also experiencing cognitive dissonance as well as normalcy bias. They are fearful at what might happen and fearful of taking steps towards addressing that fear because doing so conflicts with their ingrained belief system.  They want to believe  that an economic collapse could never happen in America.  Life continues to be pretty good for most Americans….we shop, vacation, purchase luxury items, and enjoy eating in restaurants.  Life appears pretty normal.  

But perceptive Americans have an intuitive feeling that something is really wrong.  Despite the message spread by the talking heads on NBC, CBS, ABC, CNBC, and  MSNBC  that the nation is in “recovery” or “the employment picture is improving”  or “corporate earnings are growing”  these savvy folks dismiss the messages as much akin to the old Soviet press releases back during the Cold War. The mass media has refused   to acknowledge that the Federal Reserve’s continued money printing is a complete disconnect   from the reported   “improving” economy. 

I am assuming that since you are reading the “SurvivalBlog “ that you have made plans for your basic needs for the other aspects of survival.  My focus is on the financial aspect….protecting the value of what you have worked so hard to put away.   Again, set aside all preconceived notions that the marketplace is honest and fair to all participants.  What’s the difference between loss of purchasing power via paying depositors low interest rates or stealing the money outright. Depositors will lose money one way or another…thru actual loss (theft) or loss of purchasing power (inflation).  And the FDIC doesn’t really exist for the protection of depositors….it exists to protect the banks who operate on a fractional reserve system from bank runs.  A perception by the public that their deposits are somehow covered from all risk prevents those runs. If you think your money in the bank is safe, you better grow up. There is also a concerted effort to grab every last dollar held in IRA’s, 401k’s, pension accounts, etc. by those who control the money supply and markets.  Americans will find the funds they worked so hard to save for their retirement years raided and invested into government securities. The American people will essentially be forced into placing their retirement dollars into financing the country’s debt.  An outright theft.  The game is rigged against all of us. If you think your money in the bank or in that 401k, IRA, or pension account is safe, you better wake up and smell the coffee.
So what is a prudent and careful person to do?

First of all, commit this mantra to memory: 
                                 
BET AGAINST THE DEBT….BECOME YOUR OWN CENTRAL BANKER

I am suggesting that you take the following steps to have control of your funds, maintain purchasing power, and protect those assets from confiscation:

1. Start taking inventory of funds currently invested in savings and checking accounts. Try to envision what your life would be like if those accounts would be frozen by a government-mandated tax on deposits followed by a bank holiday.  
2. Now estimate what your expenses for living normal life for 2-3 months might be assuming you had to pay cash rather than relying upon the use of a credit or debit card or assuming that a retailer or vendor would accept your personal check for a product or service (their banks are closed too, remember).   
3. Pull those funds from your account(s) and hold as cash (banks are paying little or no interest so what’s the difference?).  Please keep this cash in a very safe place (not a safe deposit box at a bank that will be closed).  At the minimum it should be placed in a fireproof safe, security box, etc. in your residence or at the residence of a very trusted relative or friend. Tell no one else of your plans other than someone who has the same vested interests as yourself.
4. Now assess the remaining balance of the funds in your accounts. You will want to begin the process of converting those funds into a vehicle that will preserve your purchasing power when the fiat currency ultimately collapses….precious metals…gold and silver. Start taking funds out of your account in an amount that will not arouse suspicion (think under $5,000) from a nosy bank clerk who is bound by regulation to report transactions above a certain threshold or that look suspicious. If asked, tell them that you have some home improvement projects or major auto repairs and your guy offers a discount for cash payments. They can relate to those scenarios.
5. Think of gold bullion and gold coins as a very good way to place a lot of wealth in a very small package. You will want to have gold for a portion (25% to 40%) of your wealth preservation plan. However, they would not be very useful for day to day transactions. For that I suggest silver (60% to 75%) in the form of one ounce Silver Eagles from the U.S. Mint or (even better) pre-1965 U.S. coins (dimes, quarters, and half dollars) that have a composition that is 90% silver.  This is commonly referred to as “junk silver”. Each pre-1965 coin will have actual silver in its composition (dime .0715 oz., quarter .17875 oz., half .3575 oz.).  Thus every dollar in face value contains 0.715 oz. of silver. You could also consider U.S. Silver Dollars (0.77oz) minted during the late 19th and early 20th centuries but they often carry a numismatic premium. There are other choices out there that will vie for your investment funds but I have found the U.S. junk silver is usually your best value, easily recognized and accepted, and very liquid.  You will want to make your purchases from a reputable and trusted local dealer. Ask around and make a few inquiries. Most will accept cash and are generally tight-lipped.  Make your purchases periodically as a way of cost averaging. Take physical possession. Never buy and let someone hold it for you. Store it securely. Again, OPSEC should be of the highest importance. [JWR Adds: The recent advent of the Chinese-made fake Silver Dollars is yet another reason to stick with the smaller denomination 90% silver pre-1965 U.S. coins.]
6. Now begin thinking about how you would be impacted if your IRA, tax-deferred annuity, or retirement account would be devastated by a market meltdown, seizure, or government-mandated purchase of printed securities with no real backing.  I am an advocate of taking at least a portion of your funds and converting to precious metals. You have worked hard to put away funds for your golden years but what if those funds no longer existed? This will be a big decision and a tough pill to swallow for most people. But I contend that taking a distribution, paying the taxes, and yes, even a possible early withdrawal penalty, and then converting those funds into precious metals will be a wise decision for almost everyone. It is an even easier decision if you are older than age 59 ½ and not subject to the premature distribution penalty. If you are worried about your tax obligation you might remember that the government is essentially taxing your money already via the fiat system that currently exists and that you will be more responsible with your assets than any politician. You might also want to consider making some tax deductible gifts to your church, favorite charity, or philanthropic organization to reduce some of your tax obligation and possibly “bunching” those deductions into one tax year for good measure. Better that they have it where you can see the good works done firsthand. Opening a “Precious Metals IRA” has also been touted as a solution but you are not able to take physical possession of your metals until you actually take a withdrawal/distribution. This means that your metals will be held in “safekeeping” by a custodian….usually a money center bank. How do you think that’s going to play out if the SHTF?
7. Lastly, and something else to consider, is beginning to take your Social Security distributions prior to your normal retirement date for full benefits. If you are aged 62 or older you are eligible for Social Security benefit payments prior to reaching “normal retirement age” but at a reduced rate. You will have to do some calculations to determine how much  of a reduction it will be from normal retirement benefits, how it will affect your taxable income level,  how it will affect survivor benefit levels for your spouse, and  if doing so will place a hardship on your living needs.  If it makes financial sense and you have other reserves,  then taking a reduced  monthly check and purchasing precious metals (a certain payout and purchase of hard assets) with those funds might be a wise choice rather than waiting until you reach the normal retirement age (an uncertain promise for payment in fiat currency at some future date). You can log on to www.socialsecurity.gov  to access the Social Security calculator link which will enable you to create a variety of personal scenarios.

The U.S. dollar is just the latest in a long line of currencies that have had their value stolen due to decisions made by politicians and central bankers. Taking a valuable commodity like paper and reducing its value by printing numbers, images, promissory verbiage, and fancy artwork is a criminal act. Currency backed by gold and silver will eventually return. But until then it is wise to convert the existing currency to the real thing.  Fight the debt….become your own central banker.

As a former prosecutor and now criminal defense attorney practicing in Florida, I offer some insights gained by experience for the patriotic reader.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2,266,800 adults were incarcerated in U.S. federal and state prisons, and county jails at year-end 2010 – about 0.7% of adults in the U.S. resident population. Additionally, 4,933,667 adults at year-end 2009 were on probation or on parole. In total, 7,225,800 adults were under correctional supervision (probation, parole, jail or prison) in 2009 – about 3.1% of adults in the U.S. resident population. With the statist establishment criminalizing everything, and the prosecution machine grinding out prison inmates every day, a dedicated “prepper,” gun-owner or survivalist has much to be wary of when dealing with of law enforcement officers.

Obviously, the first bit of advice is to not violate the law. Unfortunately, there are so many laws on the books that almost everyone is a criminal. For more on this point, see Go Directly to Jail: The Criminalization of Almost Everything by Gene Healy and Three Felonies A Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent by Harvey Silverglate. With the new proposals to ban certain capacity magazines and firearms and to seek a universal gun registration system, many people have become concerned that the law abiding citizen will be labeled a criminal by the state.

We must also recognize that when lawful gun owners discuss the use of force (including lethal force) in defense of self and others, we are not talking about a hypothetical construct. In the event of TEOTWAWKI, this may be an everyday reality. How functional the police and law enforcement agencies are in such an event is unknowable, but planning for such an eventuality can only be smart. It is not hard to imagine a scenario where you defend your home against a home invader using your legally carried firearm, but are faced with the ugly possibility of life in prison. The taking of a human life is no small thing. In Florida, the illegal use of a firearm that results in death carries a minimum mandatory life in prison sentence. Would you plea to a reduced charge for less prison time or take your chances with a jury? Are you sure? The best thing to do is to give your defense attorney the best case you can by planning ahead and understanding how to react to police.

One is reminded of the dilemma faced by the survivors in JWR’s novel Patriots where the protagonists must decide what to do with the bodies and belongings of the armed marauders who have attacked their camp. I would suggest that having a flexible plan to deal with the aftermath of armed citizen conflict should be part of your considerations. Obviously, TEOTWAWKI can come in many varieties with varying levels of societal dysfunction and different responses to such a situation may be called for. This essay presupposes that the police are still actively functioning and that the current U.S. Constitution is still in force.

You must understand that police are state agents. While most of us perceive the police are our friends, neighbors and protectors, it is very easy for this relationship to flip wherein we are the targets of tyrannical state power. Note, for example, the demonization of certain “right wing fringe groups” that believe in such crazy ideas at the founding documents and the right to gun ownership! I am of the belief that the likelihood of Blackhawk helicopters, drones or military strikes against civilians is remote. On the other hand, when TSHTF, the behavior of the local police forces will be one of the critical components as to how things will unfold. All the preps in the world will be of no use if you are sitting in a jail or prison cell. Knowing how to stay out of jail and prison is a critical bit of knowledge for everyone to have. Because the local police forces are the entry point for our prison and jail populations, you should know how the police deal with you.

It is important to understand that there are three levels of police citizen encounters: 1) consensual encounter, 2) investigatory stop and 3) detainer and arrest. See Popple v. State, 626 So. 2d 185, 186 (Fla. 1993).

The first level, “consensual encounter,” involves only minimal police contact, during which a citizen may either voluntarily comply with a police officer's requests or choose to ignore them. A consensual encounter is not a seizure, so it may occur without repercussion, even when a police officer has no reason to suspect that criminal activity is afoot. Because the citizen is free to leave during a consensual encounter, constitutional safeguards are not invoked. Therefore, anything you say in a consensual encounter will be admissible against you. Often, consensual encounters are the basis for many a search. The police officer will ask, “Do you mind if I search your car?” Because it is a question, you have a right to refuse the offer – and you should. An officer may ask you at a highway check point, “would you mind pulling over to the side of the road for a moment?” The response to this is a polite, “I would respectfully decline. I would like to be on my way. Are you ordering me to the side of the road?” If the answer is yes, then understand that you are now adversarial to the police, and are being targeted for arrest. If you are free to leave, then by all means leave. 

The second level of police-citizen encounter is an investigatory stop. At this level, a police officer may reasonably detain a citizen temporarily if the officer has a reasonable suspicion that a person has committed, is committing, or is about to commit a crime. In order not to violate a citizen's Fourth Amendment rights, an investigatory stop requires a well-founded, articulable suspicion of criminal activity. An investigatory stop requires a factual basis to support it. Unfortunately, this test is subjective and can be falsely created after the fact by an officer. In an investigatory stop police have a right to search for weapons in what is called a Terry search (after Terry v. Ohio, 392 U.S. 1 (1968) if they suspect a person has a weapon. Thus, if you are detained and a police officer asks you if you have “anything on you that he should know about” the correct response is “I have a permit to carry a concealed weapon which is located in my right front pocket.” Note how you say you have a permit first, which reduced the alarm for you being armed. Do not grab for the weapon. Let the officer retrieve the weapon, if he chooses.

The third level of police-citizen encounter is an arrest supported by probable cause that a crime has been or is being committed. A person is arrested or detained. It is only at this point that your ‘right to remain silent’ and ‘right to an attorney’ protections apply. Invoke them immediately. Further, always be polite. There is no reason to get indignant, angry or out of control – those things can only make your life worse when dealing with a police officer.
Back to our earlier example wherein an intruder is justifiably shot, what is it you should say to police? The answer is quite simple: Do not talk to the police. Instead, immediately invoke your right to remain silent and ask for an attorney. There is nothing you can say that will dissuade them from arresting you if that is their intent. There is nothing you can say that cannot also be told to them through your attorney. Having your attorney speak for you allows you to tell your side without the problem of implicating yourself in a crime. Exercise your right and then keep quiet. In many jurisdictions, police are given a 48 hour cooling off period before they are questioned about any police involved shootings. If the police have a waiting period to talk about justifiable shootings, then why not you? Help those who want to help you – and we are not talking about the police! The police are there to put you in jail. Otherwise, why do they want to talk to you? There is no information that you can give them that will persuade them to let you go that cannot also be provided through your defense attorney. If you are under arrest, you are not their “friend.”

I have seen people hang themselves with a statement to police on life felonies for the price of a cop-bought basket of chicken. Thus, do not talk with the police. Sadly, I have also seen many cases where an accused citizen’s comments were misunderstood by the police (either intentionally or accidentally) and used against them. If you find yourself being questioned by the police, politely decline to answer, and tell them you would be happy to answer any questions directed to your attorney. If you are read your Miranda rights, immediately and unequivocally invoke your right to remain silent and ask for an attorney. Then, do not talk about your case! That means, do not talk about it with the friend they bring into the room with you (your conversations are being recorded). Don’t talk about it on the jail phone (also recorded). Don’t talk about it in code (doesn’t work.) Don’t talk about it with fellow inmates (they will turn snitch.) Police love to place you in situations with other people (other than your attorney) that tempt you to talk about your case. The only person you talk to about the case is your attorney.

Another point: don’t be discouraged that an attorney does not magically appear in front of you when you request one. Your attorney only has to be provided to you at arraignment, which can be many days off. Often the police will use this delay to wear out the person being held. People become impatient with the system when after they invoke their right to an attorney they are abandoned in the questioning room for several hours as the police prepare the paperwork to transport them to jail. Time after time, citizens give up their rights and talk to the police to their detriment because the arrestee thinks they can talk their way out of jail. All they end up doing is talking their way into prison!

It is also vital to understand the police use of force continuum. Many police agencies rely on a use of force continuum (also called the use of force matrix) when dealing with citizens. Generally, law enforcement can utilize an amount of force one level above what is presently being exerted against them. Here is an example of the matrix.  As you can see from the matrix, if you are only verbally opposing arrest, the police officer may use physical force against you. It is vitally important for the responsible gun owner to know about this matrix. Many people get into big, big trouble when they think they are being wrongfully arrested and argue with the police. The police then respond with an allowable use of physical force, which is then physically resisted by the suspect. In Florida, while it is true that one can resist an illegal arrest without violence, a person cannot in any circumstance resist arrest (even an illegal arrest) with violence. A citizen’s righteous indignation may have been originally justified. But by trying to resolve the dispute with the police on the side of the road, they turn an encounter with the police into a felony charge that lands them in prison. If you are being detained and “think” you know the law and decide to oppose your arrest understand this: whether an arrest is illegal or not will not be determined on the side of the road. Instead, it will be in a courtroom by a judge and prosecutor who are agents of the state. When the police are writing up their report, guess whose side it will take. The worst mistake you can make is to become indignant and physically oppose an arrest. Note that under the matrix, active physical resistance by a person can be met by police with deadly force.

Finally and sadly, you must be aware of the reality and existence of police corruption. While it is true that defense attorneys perceive higher rates of wrongful conviction in the jurisdictions than do judges, prosecutors, and police, the differing opinion of the defense attorneys could be explained by their closer relationship to the defendants. See Ramsey and Frank “Wrongful Conviction” 2007. Judges, prosecutors, and police rarely have contact with a defendant at his most candid, whereas the defense attorney often gains substantial insight into a case through the defendant’s perspective. Often, there are factual disagreements between a defendant’s version of events versus that of a police officer. While it is a defense attorney’s obligation to advocate for their client, defense attorneys also recognize that the other groups almost always side with law enforcement when matters of credibility are at issue. Most defense attorneys understand that the current legal regime provides no protection against unreasonable illegal searches by corrupt police officers and law enforcement officials. This is rarely accounted for by the other three groups, who often work closely together as part of a law enforcement regime.
While actual framing and planting of evidence by law enforcement is possible, most of the corruption does not involve such blatant frame ups. Rather, it takes the form of self-justification, i.e. since we know the defendant is guilty, lying about the circumstances of an arrest is justified since “they are guilty anyway.” Such lying, when accepted and institutionalized as a regular part of the process, effectively eviscerates the individual protections of the Constitution. The individual Rights enshrined in the Constitution only exist if the procedures afforded individual defendants are respected.

Police procedure is where the rubber meets the road in Constitutional law. Fabricated justifications by police destroy Constitutional protections. For example, “Stop and search” has become an increasingly common tactic for normal law enforcement. “NYPD "Stop and Frisks" Hit All-Time High - City police officers stopped and questioned 684,330 people on the street last year.” Feb. 14, 2012 Can it be said that all of these stops were supported by probable cause? What exactly is going on here?

Many laymen would be surprised to learn that since 1996, there is no longer any such thing as a pre-textual stop. The Supreme Court case Whren v. United States, 517 U.S. 806 (1996) effectively removed any defense attorney check on corrupt police officers. The Court ruled, “As a general matter, the decision to stop an automobile is reasonable where the police have probable cause to believe that a traffic violation has occurred.” “Subjective intentions play no role in ordinary, probable-cause Fourth Amendment analysis.” Whren; See also United States v. Holloman, 113 F.3d 192, 194 (11th Cir.1997) (stating that Whren “squarely rejected the pre-textual stop analysis” and that an officer's “ulterior motives” for a stop are not relevant so long as it is justified by probable cause). This ruling effectively disarmed the defense check on police corruption, thus placing the entire burden for rooting out impermissible behavior on law enforcement themselves and the prosecutors who often serve as a rubberstamping branch of their local law enforcement agencies.

Two common scenarios are commonly subject to this type of corruption: 1) justifying probable cause to stop a vehicle and 2) justifying probable cause to search a vehicle or person. When justifying probable cause to stop a vehicle, there are many un-falsifiable strategies an officer can use to justify a stop, placing his word against that of the defendant.  This places the prosecutor and the court in a position of having to doubt the word of a law enforcement agent over that of an accused defendant. Most courts, almost as a rule, side with law enforcement in this circumstance. It is not my intent to argue that anything like a majority of cases are in fact falsified. Rather, it is to explain that there is no external check on police falsifications available to defense attorneys. Therefore, it is currently incumbent on prosecutors, judges and other law enforcement officials to self enforce. Understanding some all too common techniques of petty police corruption (in the Appendix below) should shed some insight into the indices of falsification.

As someone who could be on the receiving end of this, you, the reader, should know that the best way to deal with police officer (whether or not they are operating in a legal manner) is not to argue with them, but to remain silent and ask for an attorney.
 
Appendix
How petty police corruption often undermines the current constitutional search and seizure framework.

The following are ways a corrupt officer can justify stopping a vehicle based on probable cause. Because the current state of the law does not have a defense check on police power, a police officer who is willing to lie can stop any vehicle based on an after the fact, made up, unverifiable reason. Some examples of the many excuses that can be used to justify stopping a vehicle in Florida are outlined below:
I.                    “You rolled a stop sign.”
A.      (The officer testified unequivocally that defendant failed to stop at the stop sign, while defendant testified unequivocally that he made a full and complete stop. The officer's testimony was more credible in those areas where it conflicted with defendant's testimony. As a matter of fact, defendant committed a traffic infraction in violation of Florida law by failing to come to a complete stop at the stop sign. Therefore, the officer's stop of the vehicle did not violate the Fourth Amendment). United States v. Maddox, 2005 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 34838 (M.D. Fla. Dec. 6, 2005)
B.      (Officer stopped a truck for running a stop sign when exiting the complex and received permission to search the truck from the male driver.) Holland v. State, 696 So. 2d 757, 758 (Fla. 1997)
C.      (Defendant committed various moving violations-rolling through several stop signs-which prompted the officers to lawfully stop his vehicle. Thus, the officers had probable cause to stop Defendant.) United States v. Jefferson, 2010 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 143674, 6-7 (S.D. Fla. Dec. 19, 2010)
D.      (Officer alleged Defendant drove his van past an agricultural inspection station he was required to stop at, justifying stop). Grimes v State, 1982 Fla. App. LEXIS 19563 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 1st Dist. Mar. 29, 1982)
II.                  “Your tail light was out.” (Police officer had probable cause to stop the vehicle for driving after dark without its tail lights illuminated). United States v. St. Louis, 255 Fed. Appx. 432 (11th Cir. Fla. 2007) Note that this allows for the possibility that the individual simply had turned out his lights with the switch, making the fact completely dependant on the officer’s observations.
III.                “Your tag light was out.”
A.      (Officer can stop a car for an inoperable tag light) See Cole v. State, 838 So. 2d 1205, 1205 (Fla. 2d DCA 2003)
B.      (While maintaining that the tag light did not work, the State also argued that the validity of the stop of defendant's vehicle did not depend on whether the light worked; the State claimed the stop was valid if the deputy had a reasonable suspicion that a traffic infraction had occurred). State v. Lee, 957 So. 2d 76 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 5th Dist. 2007) Note that the language of the opinion allows for later testimony that the tag light in fact works – all that is required is that the deputy had a reasonable suspicion that it did not. This inquiry into the officer’s subjective intent is exactly the inquiry that the Supreme Court was trying to avoid in Whren.
IV.                “Your window tinting is too dark.” (Officer can stop based on a tint violation), See Lawrence v. State, 942 So. 2d 467, 468 (Fla. 4th DCA 2006); Davis v. State, 788 So. 2d 308, 309 (Fla. 5th DCA 2001).
V.                   “Your license tag is dirty and I can’t read it.”
A.      “… the word "Florida," the registration decal, and the alphanumeric designation shall be clear and distinct and free from defacement, mutilation, grease, and other obscuring matter, so that they will be plainly visible and legible at all times 100 feet from the rear or front.” Fla. Stat. § 316.605 Note that the officer’s opinion of a dirty tag cannot be falsified, since the officer can claim that the tag was subject to post-arrest cleaning.
VI.                “Your windshield is cracked.”
A.      (Stop is valid when a deputy stopped defendant's vehicle after he observed a severe crack in the vehicle's windshield). United States v. Anderson, 367 Fed. Appx. 30 (11th Cir. Fla. 2010)
B.      Any police officer may at any time, upon reasonable cause to believe that a vehicle is unsafe or not equipped as required by law, or that its equipment is not in proper adjustment or repair, require the driver of the vehicle to stop and submit the vehicle to an inspection and such test with reference thereto as may be appropriate. Fla. Stat. § 316.610(1)
VII.              “You crossed the center line.” (Officer testified that he stopped the vehicle because he observed it cross over the center line twice and because the vehicle was impeding traffic by traveling far below the normal speed limit). State v. Thomas, 714 So. 2d 1176 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 2d Dist. 1998)
The following are ways a corrupt officer can justify searching a vehicle based on probable cause.  Based on the current state of the law, after the vehicle was stopped a police officer can the search any vehicle based on a made up, unverifiable reason. The following are examples of the many excuses can be used to justify searching a stopped vehicle or person in Florida are outlined below.
I.                    “He acted nervous.” (Defendant became extremely "nervous" and "jittery" during his pre-search interaction with Officer) State v. Betz, 815 So. 2d 627, 633 (Fla. 2002)
II.                  “He made furtive movements.” What exactly is a “furtive” movement? This term, while hardly ever used in normal conversation, is commonly used by deputies when testifying to justify searches and actions, as a search of the term “furtive movement” in Westlaw easily demonstrates. [See, for example, Lightbourne v. State, 438 So. 2d 380 (Fla. 1983) (Pat down of individual justified when officer observes furtive movements combined with nervous appearance), and over 112 such references.] A Lexis.com search indicates 135 hits in Florida, and 2740 hits nationwide. The relative suspiciousness of a movement, or even its existence, is a matter of opinion of the officer who is subject to prosecutorial and judicial deference even in the face of defense disagreement.
III.                Detainee is “Unusually calm” (Defendant was unusually calm, actually lounging on the side of the interstate). State v. Petion, 992 So. 2d 889, 892-893 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 2d Dist. 2008)
IV.                “He gave consent to search.” (Consent to search after tag light stop includes tearing the vehicle apart for an hour with tools). State v. Petion, 992 So. 2d 889, 893 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 2d Dist. 2008) (Consent can be a mere shrug). State v. Jennings, 968 So. 2d 694 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 4th Dist. 2007). (The inspector asked to look in the van, and inspector alleged that appellant consented). Grimes v State, 1982 Fla. App. LEXIS 19563 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 1st Dist. Mar. 29, 1982) Consent is often a matter of opinion of the officer, who is subject to prosecutorial and judicial deference even in the face of defense disagreement.
V.                  “I smelled what appeared to be marijuana.” (The odor of burnt cannabis emanating from a vehicle constitutes probable cause to search all occupants of that vehicle) State v. Williams, 967 So. 2d 941 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 1st Dist. 2007); Wynn v. State, 14 So. 3d 1094, 1096 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 2d Dist. 2009); Nazien v. State, 36 So. 3d 184, 185 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 3d Dist. 2010); State v. T.P., 835 So. 2d 1277, 1278 (Fla. 4th DCA 2003); State v. Williams, 739 So. 2d 717 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 5th Dist. 1999); State v. Betz, 815 So. 2d 627, 633 (Fla. 2002); (Odor of burnt or burning cannabis detected as the deputy approached defendant provided him with probable cause to search the vehicle). State v. Lee, 957 So. 2d 76 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 5th Dist. 2007); (The odor of marijuana gave probable cause to search the bales), Grimes v State, 1982 Fla. App. LEXIS 19563 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 1st Dist. Mar. 29, 1982) While the smell of marijuana alone gives an officer a basis to search, it does not appear dependant on actually finding marijuana. Therefore, invisible and transitory smells can be not be independently verified outside of the officer’s word.

On March 20th, Colorado's Democrat Governor John Hickenlooper did a very foolish thing. He signed into law a ban on any magazine over 15 round capacity with a ban on shotguns with tubular magazines that can hold more than 28 lineal inches of shotshells, and another law that will ban private party sales of guns. (All transfers except a few within families will have to be handled through Federally licensed dealers. )

Because the magazine ban won't take effect until July 1, 2013, I can predict an unintended consequence: Close to one million magazines of 16+ round capacity will be purchased by Coloradans in the next three months. It is in their own best interest to immediately stock up their lifetime supply. So, instead of reducing the number of full capacity magazines in private hands, Colorado's legislature has triggered a spending spree that will likely double or triple the number of 16+ round magazines in the state. Perhaps one million more magazines will be marched (well, mailed, actually) into Colorado.

The next few big gun shows in Colorado will surely be memorable events. Something tells me that the dealers will be headed home in substantially lighter vehicles. (Any readers who are gun show vendors, take note. Reserve your tables, soon, and bring a large inventory of magazines.)

As I've mentioned before, the new law's grandfather clause is not multigenerational. It will be limited to only then-current owners on June 30th. Therefore I have urged Coloradans to be sure to properly document the gift of your magazines to your children and grandchildren, and have those records notarized.

If you have friends who live in Colorado, help them out, before the end of June. Many magazines are scarce, at present. Even Glock magazines are hard to find. Do you bit to support the Boulder Airlift. And if any Coloradans wisely vote with your feet and move to a Free State before July, then I recommend that you sell most of your 16+ round rifle magazines and 9+ round shotguns magazines to local friends before you depart, and then immediately buy replacements once you've moved.

Another unintended consequence of the new laws will be be political. The democrats have enraged Colorado's gun owners. In the 2014 election we will probably see a huge backlash. As recently as December, Governor John Hickenlooper was deemed "safe for re-election" in 2014. I have news for him: Gun owners have a long memory.

The national political landscape may change in 2014, as well. Let's not forget that 20 Democratic US senators face re-election in 2014. If they push civilian disarmament too far, many of those senators may get the boot. - J.W.R.

Mr. Rawles,
I read your essay "The Right to Open Carry Guns: Use It or Lose It," with interest.  I watched the videos you linked to with horror.  I was awestruck.

It is a shock to my system to see law enforcement officers so poorly trained and so willing to violate rights of citizens.  Perhaps I should know better by now.  To think that just one telephone call from a "concerned citizen" is enough to cause the police to violate a law abiding persons civil rights is terrifying.

I live in an extremely 2nd amendment friendly state, Arizona.  It is very common to see open carry just about everywhere, with the only real exceptions being schools, court houses and bars.  If you venture out, even in the large cities, you will see a variety of people from all walks of life going about their daily business with an openly carried handgun.  No one freaks out and no one calls the cops. It's been this way as far back as I can remember.

But, one of the freedoms that makes Arizona special may actually cause a hindrance to liberty if we are not careful.  Constitutional concealed carry passed a couple of years ago here in Arizona.  And while it is still extremely common to see open carry, many people have moved to concealed carry since the law passed.  I am a little afraid that this trend could cause the local population to become less familiar and comfortable with open carry. Plus, we have many people that move to Arizona from less gun free states.  I hate to think that in the near future, our law enforcement may be pressured to react because someone saw a "person with a gun" in public.  What a sad day that will be.

In an effort to stop the trend, I would like to encourage my fellow Arizonans to not take our exceptional freedom for granted.  Even if you regularly carry concealed, as so may of us do, set aside one or two days a week to open carry.  If we can keep it commonplace, we may save everyone problems down the line.  

Thank you for the work you do. - Ralph in Arizona

Solar [coronal] mass ejections occur most frequently at the peak of the 11 year solar cycle.  Statistics show that Earth will get a direct hit from a major solar mass ejection every about every 500 years. This estimate comes from the number of solar mass ejections we see and frequency. Now figure in the size of the Earth versus the size of the solar mass ejection. The calculation is similar to the odds of a pin landing on a particular point on a globe, except Earth is the pin and the globe is the sun. In the end, we can estimate that Earth will get hit every 500 years or so by a flare large enough to affect our electronics.

This doesn't mean that life will end when the next one hits. Solar storms come in different intensities. The impact of a solar mass ejection our civilization will depend on its strength and the technology we think we need to get by.
 
Satellites

Satellites in orbit are the most sensitive when it comes to solar radiation. They lack the protection of Earth's atmosphere. Those satellites on the side of the Earth that is facing the Sun during a major solar flare would have component failures. However, not all satellites would be lost. There are different designs of satellites, with some more shielded [or "hardened"] than others. Satellites on the back side of Earth couldn't be affected unless the solar flare and its accompanying radiation showered the Earth for many hours as the satellite's rotation brought it to the day side. And variations in the Earth's magnetic field could offer protection to some satellites. We would see a mix of charred, failing and fully functional satellites. We can’t know when a flare will hit except for the likelihood of it occurring during the peak of the solar cycle, so no nation can protect all of its satellites by keeping them on the night side of the Earth.
 
Your Best Defense Against This

Don't rely on GPS or Global Positioning Satellite Systems for navigation. Know your route or know how to get there with only paper maps. And never rely on GPS-based geocaching to find hidden supplies in an emergency. If we see a massive release of solar radiation that is the natural equivalent of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) weapon, then your GPS capability will probably be gone.
 
Long AC Transmission Lines

Safety equipment designed to prevent overloads will protect most of the transformers connected to long Alternating Current or AC power transmission lines. However, some transformers will get overloaded by the field strength of a solar flare or solar storm. The bad news is that this means that utility crews will still have to replace hundreds of transformers in addition to resetting thousands of circuit breakers where the safety equipment prevented the transformer from overloading. This is a slow process, and it is hampered by the fact that we don’t have a huge stockpile of transformers for a disaster of this scale. (Although stockpiling spare transformers has been recommended as a step to minimize the impact of a nuclear weapon or EMP pulse weapon unleashed on the United States.) The task is made more complex by the need to bring thousands of [power plants and] power lines back on line and in [phase] sync to restore the [three] power grids in CONUS]. [JWR Adds: The manufacturing lead times for large transformers are as long as 24 months!]

Power distribution systems would be massively disrupted for anything greater than a mid-scale flare, but the power distribution system would be spotty failures for anything less than mid-scale flares.  These failure rates will be affected by any improvements in the overload protection devices that hopefully have been made since the Northeast Blackout of 1965. If the recommended overload protections were put in place and maintained, the size and scope of outages would be reduced.

Your Best Defense Against This
 
You should know how to disconnect your home from the local power grid as soon as you have warning of imminent power disruptions, [via your main breaker.] At a minimum, have the means on hand to live a few weeks without electricity. It would be better to have renewable power sources or a generator and fuel stores on your property.

The Internet

The Internet itself will go mostly dark. Why? Imagine what happens if 99% of the servers go off line. They have not all been destroyed. They simply need power to be available. Without the power grids up, the Internet will be crippled. 

Many servers will be without power due to the damage to the power grid. Those servers that are still running will be isolated by power outages to the hubs they use to transmit information. A functional server in a computer room is a hub in the Internet. If it cannot connect to the major nodes to relay information then it might as well be turned off. And in an emergency like this, facilities running off of generator-supplied power will focus on properly shutting down rather than keeping extra servers running once they’ve backed up their data.

Fiber optic lines will be okay. However, with the disruption of power in the AC transmission lines, means that the fiber optics will be "dark" until they get power again. Those relying on Skype or Internet access will be left in the dark, since fiber optic lines won't run without power, and the backup option of Internet via satellite will not be an option.
 
Your Best Defense Against This
 
Have other methods of contacting family members, such as [FRS , GMRS, or MURS] walkie-talkies and ham radio. Document everyone’s phone number in a [hard copy] address book, and make multiple copies so that you can find their contact information even if the Internet is essentially dead.
Back up your data locally, regardless of whether or not you perform online backups. Have local sources of any information that you frequently reference. And make sure you have entertainment on hand that does not rely on an Internet connection.

Computers

Laptops with batteries are relatively immune to solar flares. They receive power from the battery and so will remain operational until the battery runs out. [If disconnected from outside power or data cables] they will not get fried by a solar flare. However, they could be ruined by an EMP weapon [if in very close proximity].  Desktop computers will be in worse shape. The thousands of miles of power, phone, and Ethernet cables connecting many desktop computers act like long antennas, picking up the voltage generated by the solar mass ejection. The cables connecting the computers thus have the potential to damage desktop computers [or any laptops that are connected.]
 
Your Best Defense Against This
 
Use surge protectors and UPS in your home network. Keep laptop batteries charged, and have spare batteries. [Leave computers disconnected from power and data cables when not in use.]

Telephones

Land line telephone [handsets] will probably be fine. Land line phones receive power through the same copper wire bundle that the phone signal travels through. Each land line home phone is connected to the phone company with up to several miles of telephone line.  These lines are generally far too short to be affected by an event like a solar storm, but they are at much more at risk to EMP  The Central Offices (COs) changed over from tradition relays to computerized switching decades ago. So the phone systems are now at greater risk since the computerized systems are less robust.  In short, the phone lines may work but the computers than handle the call routings may go down.

Cordless phones in homes with land-line phone lines will work as long as there is power to the home or the batteries are charged. Households relying entirely on cell phones are in trouble.
 
Your Best Defense Against This
 
Keep at least one tradition land line phone handset in your home. Own additional methods of communication like ham radio rigs, and know how to use them. Some of the hand-cranked Emergency Radios can also charge cell phones, and this is a good 'tie-breaker' when deciding which Emergency Radio to buy.

Ham Radio

Amateur radio or ham radio would be temporarily affected by the solar flare, disrupted until the radiation [in the ionosphere] has peaked and passed. After that point, ham radio equipment will run as long as there is power to run them. Those with hand crank radios will be able to listen. Ham radio operators with backup generators or photovoltaics will be able to transmit. 2 meter transmissions that depend on grid-powered repeaters will be limited to line of sight transmission.

Your Best Defense Against This
 
Find battery-powered ham radio equipment, so that you can always stay in touch. Own at least one method of recharging the batteries that is not reliant on the power grid, whether it is a hand-crank receiver or a PV panels (for transceivers.)

Personal Electronics

Small personal electronics like cell phones, laptops, tablet computers and televisions will initially be fine after a solar mass ejection.
They have the Earth's atmosphere shielding them. Their electronic components will be fine. However, the device's functionality depends on power, whether this comes from a crippled power grid, local generator or renewable power.

The problem for users will come from the damage to the communication networks these devices rely upon. For example, television stations and cell phone towers will be out. Cell phone towers have good backup batteries; they are designed to last 4 to 8 hours off of the battery. This works well during electrical storms that disrupt power [briefly], permitting local users to still make calls. However, in an extended power outage, the cell phone towers themselves will go offline within 8 hours unless they are powered by PV panels [which is very uncommon]. generators or a working local power source. At this point, even those with a working cell phone [handset] cannot complete calls.
 
Your Best Defense Against This

For each device you cannot live without, maintain at least two spare batteries for it. Better yet, have a battery charger for those batteries so that they will continue to function no matter how long the grid is down. You may also want to buy an antenna to ensure that your television can still receive local channels [rather than relying on a cable television service provider. ] Local television stations often have generators and transmitters on site and will continue broadcasting news even if a solar storm ruins satellites. [Their ability to do so will be limited by the depth of their fuel supplies for their backup generators.]
 

Vehicles

[Vehicles will be unaffected by solar storms.] The studies I have read say that about 1 vehicle in 10 will be rendered inoperable [by EMP], not the near 100% that some alarmists have predicted.   Older vehicles [with traditional ignition systems nd fuel management systems] will be completely unaffected as long as the owner has gasoline to run them. [JWR Adds: If the field strength of EMP is high enough to destroy a vehicle's electronic ignition system or fuel management system microprocessors, then you would be so close to a nuclear weapon that you would inside of its blast radius. So you would probably be dead before you'd ever have the chance to see if one of the affected vehicles started.]

The greater problems will come from the power outages. If satellites are out, the payment systems that rely on satellites to connect to a bank and withdraw payment will not work. If power is out, most gas pumps will not work. Traffic becomes a nightmare when power outages wipe out traffic control.  
 
Your Best Defense Against This
 
Stock up on stabilized gasoline. Carry cash so that you can pay for gasoline, if necessary. Carry maps in your car, instead of relying on GPS.

Dear Mr. Rawles,
We relocated from the San Francisco Bay Area at the end of 2012 to southern Oregon, as I was able to find a job with [deleted for OPSEC] in Medford.

We have been spending part of each weekend looking for a retreat property, while renting a modest home in town. We were even under contract for a lot outside of Jacksonville, but the well produced just 0.16 gallon per minute and other wells surrounding were over 400 feet and were also low producers, Oregon has plenty of water not to struggle with that unknown outcome of re-drilling. So we have been looking again, and what we keep finding is, pot growers!

There was a nice seven acre parcel with an upper and lower meadow, leading to a stream and wooded back 2 acres, on our second visit the next door 10 acre farmer greeted us and proclaimed that he and many neighbors were "growers", and they have a "great neighborhood watch, with armed guards 24/7  for 3 months a year." Okay, no thanks to living next to the farmer with the creepy armed dudes camping out in the pot field with guns, before the collapse.

Another homestead outside Jacksonville, in Ruch, population 840 had potential we thought until Internet research revealed it was "8 seconds" by car on Google maps from a September 19, 2012 DEA raid than netted "truckloads of plants."

So I am discouraged. I know the Lord has blessed us to be able to leave the San Francisco Bay Area, and by awakening us to the potential for societal collapse. Our preps now measure in not just pounds but tonnage thanks to a few years of Bay Area double incomes, and now my wife is able to stay home with our baby daughter, and her development is really taking off, by being with mommy and not in daycare.

But we are sure that Medford is still large enough and depressed economically to be a serious disaster when the collapse of the dollar takes full hold.

Can you offer any recommendations on areas surrounding this community which are less prone to be riddled with pot growers?

Thank you for any insight you might share. Sincerely, - C.D.

JWR Replies: Unfortunately, most of western Oregon is infested with pot growers. That is one of just many reasons why I did not include it when I delineated the American Redoubt region. (Along with factors like high property taxes, crime, welfare dependency, statist attitudes, etc.)

In any of the western counties in Oregon, the chances are fairly high that you will have pot growing neighbors if you buy land outside of city limits unless your neighbors are legitimate traditional produce farmers or stockmen. If you could find a property with mostly farms or ranches around it, then that would be your safest bet.

James,
Many folks have an interest of viewing solar information and typically subscribe to raw data feeds; however probably do not understand a lot of
the science behind the numbers. There is a gentleman who produces daily morning youtube forecasts typically from 3 to 4 minutes long which covers the
gamut of space weather and it's impact on terrestrial weather.

These broadcasts are extremely informative and he does an excellent job breaking down all of the information. His Youtube channel is called Suspicious0bservers. I have become a regular daily viewer of his short yet extremely informative broadcasts.

Warm Regards, - Dave in Florida

Everyone has their own unique story why they became a prepper. Mine began five years ago when my husband started ranting about the worsening economic situation in the country. I was only listening with half an ear. Sure, I noticed that food prices were creeping up with every shopping trip, and that it was getting more expensive to fill up my car every week, but didn’t that happen every year due to inflation? Why was my husband so upset about this?
Although, we started discussing world events and politics more often, I still did not understand why he was so worried. It almost felt like panic, which was a bit worrisome. Talking to me was obviously not the best way to wake me up. He began forwarding me some of the articles that influenced his thinking. They illustrated what was going wrong with the U.S. economy, the government, and the world in general. The latest White House policies only seemed to make the current situation worse. There was a lot of talk and little action. It is needless to say that I was shocked.

It was a rude awakening. The future was not as safe and secure as our leaders had made us to believe. Now, I was in a state of panic, and the only way I could alleviate some of the stress was by becoming more informed, and working feverishly on organizing food reserves.  
I have learned a lot since. Going through every beginner’s growing pains taught me to be persistent. I kept reminding myself that Rome was not built in a day either. My biggest challenge was to keep my head leveled and avoid panic attacks every time the government made another bad decision. Not all my apprehension was political. I worried about another drought, the discouraging news of the world’s dwindling food reserves, as well as the threat of war. Did you know that solar flares from the massive sunspot identified as AR1654 are closing in on earth? Scientists say that if Earth gets a direct hit from a major solar flare, the damage could be enormous. Our country’s electric grid could be damaged severely, and it could take years to recover. Those are not the only things I was worried about. There is more, such as the following:

• The UN warns us of a looming worldwide food crisis in 2013.
• The global grain reserves have hit critically low levels.
• Unreliable weather patterns around the world caused many crops to fail for several years in a row.
• Harvests in the U.S., Ukraine, and other countries around the world have eroded due to record heat waves and droughts.
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the combined inventories of wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice will drop 1.8 percent to a four-year low in 2013.
• Corn is being used for ethanol production, driving the price up for livestock producers, food manufacturers, and consumers.
• Our farmland is depleted – chemicals do not offer the nutrition the land needs to produce healthy, tasty foods.
• We produce less than what we are consuming.

The ominous global food crisis and the rising prices threaten to cause a lot of unrest. They were a great incentive for me to stock up far more than the recommended three-week survival reserve everyone was talking about. I also found that buying now would save me more money than putting it in a savings account. I do not need statistics – which are often tweaked to look better – to tell me that my dollar has been shrinking over the years. That can of beans I bought on sale for 50 cents two years ago now costs twice as much. Where is this going to end?
The Why
There are times when I wonder when all these preparations will be useful. Many possible scenarios go through my head. We are most certainly going to face an economic meltdown, and if the droughts continue, people will starve. Even if, by miracle, this does not happen, it is still necessary to prepare because we are nearing retirement age. Will we still be able to achieve those “Golden Years” we had hoped for?  I have my doubts. In case you are wondering about some of the other reasons why I became a prepper, here are some examples:

• Diminishing Social Security funds - Although we, the people, will never be told the whole truth, there are enough rumors going around that we can figure out that the country’s social security account is depleted. It is not likely that there will be money left by the time we, the Baby Boomers, retire. In fact, will we ever be able to hang up our hat? The official retirement age will continue to rise, despite all our young people feverishly looking for work. Due to fiscal mismanagement by local governments, property taxes will skyrocket, and it is doubtful that we can keep the home we worked for our entire life. Without supplementing our pension – if we’ll get one – we may need to go live in tent city.
• Natural Disasters - Have you noticed that the weather patterns are changing? They have become unpredictable, causing a tremendous amount of natural disasters. Where are FEMA, the Red Cross, and other aid organizations during disastrous catastrophes? Their relief efforts are probably focused on Africa or some other poor country far away. I have the impression that foreign aid is more important to them than what happens under our country’s own roof? Do not count on your government for help. I am not making this up. Just ask all those devastated Sandy storm victims who had to wait because New York’s authorities took their sweet time deciding how to spend relief aid funds. There was no need to hurry, as they were not the ones without food, water, shelter, and electricity. Do you want to take your chances? I don’t.
• Hyperinflation – The American dollar is soon going to be useless. Printing money as if there is no tomorrow makes it much tougher for the U.S. to import the necessities we need to keep our citizens content. Fuel and food prices have nearly doubled in the last two years. That trend is not likely to end soon. We are still able to buy most of what we need at the store to live comfortably, but be honest, how much longer is that going to last? Add all the recent and upcoming tax increases and high health care costs forced upon us by Obama Care, and it is not difficult to predict the future.
• Agenda 21 - The dangers do not only lurk at home. Be aware of fanatical outside influences. They are steadily closing in. According to Wikipedia, Agenda 21 is a non-binding, voluntarily implemented action plan of the United Nations with regard to sustainable development. Take a closer look, and you will realize that this plan is actually a blueprint for depopulation. It gives total control to the world authorities, all under the slogan of saving the environment. I do not think I will ever be ready to be enslaved, no matter how many Agendas they come up with. FYI, there is more than one.
• The possibility of war – Countries like Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Israel, and Egypt are constantly in the news. China is getting more powerful and ready to become the world’s leader. They are up to something, otherwise why are they buying food and other essentials when they have plenty? I grew up in Europe and heard many war stories from my parents and grandparents. Is history going to repeat itself just on a different continent?

The How
It is amazing all the things you learn when paying attention to the news. Instead of turning the radio to my favorite music station, I started to listen to talk radio. I did not care for every topic that was discussed, but at least I got the news that was conveniently missed or spun by the mainstream media. Survival blog sites were also quite helpful. They pointed out things I should focus on besides amassing food for us and our animals. Here are some of the things that every new female prepper or survivalist, in my opinion, should do:

• Start a garden
• Learn how to manage without electricity
• Explore alternative cooking methods
• Learn new trade skills, such as sewing
• Turn hobbies into practical applications
• Raise chickens, ducks, goats, and rabbits
• Grow supplementary food, like fodder, for the animals
• Experiment with dehydrated and freeze dried foods
• Reduce your debt
• Take self-defense  and First Aid classes
• Buy a gun and learn how to use it
• Start paying with cash
• Purchase precious metals
• Learn barter techniques
• Keep a diary of your failures and accomplishments
• Buy books or print survival guidelines now in case electronics stop working
• Practice what you preach

I insisted on having a wood stove installed in the house as a back-up heat and cooking source. My husband built a hoop house to prolong our growing season. We began raising chickens, ducks, and rabbits. It was time for me to improve my skills before the SHTF. Working out all the kinks now would make life more sustainable when it really matters.
The Details
I am an average woman with a simple life and ordinary skills. I had never pictured myself as a prepper or survivalist. All I ever wanted was a peacefully, enjoyable life. I had many wonderful, carefree years, and that keeps me going. At least I had them, which is something many young men and women will not be able to say when they reach my age. Many thoughts go through my head every day, whether it is consciously or subconsciously. They include some of the following:

• How to pay the mortgage down as fast as I can
• The need to learn basic medical skills and buying more supplies
• Ordering more dehydrated and free-dried foods
• How to implement these specialty foods in my cooking
• Learn more food preservation methods
• Bring variety in a simple diet when food supplies get scarce
• Improve my gardening skills and collect my own seeds
• Expand our livestock
• Buying essentials, like salt and soap, that can be used for bartering
• Learning more survival skills and practice them
• Switching to leisure activities that do not involve electronics
• Eating better to live healthier and improve strength
• Implementing alternate energy sources
• Getting more familiar with my gun
• Improving my shooting skills
• Always read between the lines during newscasts
• Develop a support network with like-minded people
• Always keep an open mind

I work on these goals every day. By doing so, my husband and I are cultivating a self-sustainable lifestyle. We are a team. He has his responsibilities and I have mine. Regardless what the authorities say about gender equality; there are limits. Yes, I am all for equal pay when doing the same job, but nobody can ever change the fact that, in general, women have a uterus, are destined to bear children, and have the urge to nurture.
Conclusion
Be persistent if you want to convince your wife or girlfriend to jump on the survival bandwagon. Do not talk about situations that are difficult to relate to; EMP blasts, revolutions, gun and food confiscation by the government, or any other unimaginable disaster situation. Confrontation is not the way to convince a female, at least not when it comes to such serious matters. Keep it simple by pointing out natural disasters that have been in the news lately. Ask her how she believes she would survive if a hurricane, tsunami, tornado, or ice storm would hit her neighborhood. How would she be able to care for her children when the stores are empty and the banks closed? What would she do if there was no power for two weeks or more?
Talking alone about the looming crisis is not going to do the trick. Confront her with proof, and ask her to participate in a simple training exercise. Turn of the electricity for an entire day, or ask her not to go grocery shopping for a week. She will soon realize that surviving without modern conveniences can be extremely tough. Point out facts, but do not go overboard. Pushing too hard can have an adverse reaction.
I was never really a girly-girl. For as long as I can remember, I have been interested in world politics, science, and how to improve myself. I am glad that I am aware of what goes on around me. However, I also envy those women booking appointments at the beauty parlor or spending hours at the mall to find that perfect dress or pair of pumps. It is probably not true that they have no care in the world, but that is how it seems to me. Would I want to trade? Absolutely not, because I will at least have a chance to survive if or when disaster strikes.

Many readers will recall that my 2011 novel "Survivors: A Novel of the Coming Collapse" was partly set in and near Farmington, New Mexico. I chose that region because it has a particularly resilient power grid. In the novel I described how Farmington Electric Utility System (FEUS) has made contingency plans to immediately reconstitute a local power grid, in the event of a western power grid collapse. This was not just literary license on my part. It was based on a face-to-face interview with a FEUS manager that I conducted in 2009, as I was researching locales for the novel. That manager told me that if the western grid collapsed, all FEUS customers could have their power restored in less than a minute. This capability is called "islanding" or "controlled system separation." While not a secret, islanding capability is not well-known outside of the power industry. Islanding is also uncommon in most of the United States. (Most Americans live in areas where the majority of their power is imported from the larger grids. It is only in a few areas such as the Pacific Northwest and the Four Corners that are net power exporters. This zoomable map shows you the Big Picture for the US and parts of Canada.

America's Three Power Grids

There are actually three main power grids in the United States: an eastern grid, a western grid, and a Texas grid. This map shows the dividing lines, and this map shows some planned changes. Within those three grids, there are distinct service areas. And within those service areas, there is a patchwork of large power companies, co-ops, and a few independent power producers.

The majority of Americans depend on power that comes from coal-fired or nuclear power plants. Both of these sources would be problematic in the event of major societal disruption. NERC regulations require shutdowns of nuclear plants for trivial reasons, and coal-fired plants require literally trainloads of coal to keep running. The most stable power in event of an economic disaster will be hydroelectric. The Pacific Northwest has the clear advantage in hydroelectric power and some of the most reliable and least expensive power in the country. Generally, where there are large dams there is plentiful hydro power, and the greatest potential for stable local islanding. (But note that potential does not necessarily mean planned. You will need to check on that with your local power company's management to see if they have made the requisite arrangements for islanding.)

Where Will the Islands be?

Do some online research to find maps like this one: Map of Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) transmission lines. Then call you local utility and find out if they are power exporters or importers. If they are exporters, ask if they have an islanding plan.

Long Term?

In the event of a long term grid-down situation where the coal trains stop running there will just be a few areas that will have reliable power. Most of these will be in the Pacific Northwest, where hydroelectric power predominates.

Black Startup

In the event that one or all three American grids collapse because of something catastrophic such as a major solar flare, or an economic whammy that stops coal train traffic, getting the grids back up might be difficult. Typically a power plant requires lots of outside power to be re-started. The re-starts that done without functioning outside power--commonly called Black Startup or Dark Startup --are a challenge. Here is a quote from the sometimes useful LeftistAgendaPedia: "To provide a black start, some power stations have small diesel generators which can be used to start larger generators (of several megawatts capacity), which in turn can be used to start the main power station generators." In the event of a nationwide collapse of the power grid, the best chance for power plants to be restarted and partial grid restoration will be in the Northwest, where hydro power will be available to feed the grid.

Off The Grid

Home generation is the sure way of knowing that you will have power. (Even if you are fortunate enough to live near a hydroelectric dam or geothermal power plant, you can't assume that your power will be restored in the event of a power grid collapse.) Home power systems that are not grid tied will be the most resilient to solar storms or EMP. This is because grid power lines can act as unintentional antennas. To be fully prepared for a solar storm, it might be necessary to store spare charge controllers and perhaps even spare inverters, for a worst case. These spares should be stored disconnected, preferably in Faraday enclosures.

If you are planning to strategically relocate your family to a safe region, I recommend that power utility islanding be part of your criteria for choosing locales. Places with plentiful hydroelectric power are your best bet. But again, don't just assume that they are ready for islanding. Take the time to call the local power company or co-op, and ask them if they have contingency plans for islanding, and if so what would be the geographic boundaries for their planned island. This could make a huge difference for the quality of life that you will have in the dark times to come. - J.W.R.

James, 
First let me say that I have thoroughly enjoyed reading SurvivalBlog over the years. It has been a source of insight, inspiration and motivation to myself, my friends and most of my family whom I've shared it with.

A few months ago we watched as Hurricane Sandy hit the upper East Coast from afar. I'm about 200 miles from the Gulf Coast and as any other resident in this area, we keep an eye on the sky during the Hurricane Season. But knowing this was not in our back yard, I didn't worry. I generally keep everything stocked up well in advance for most things that could happen, but I do have family that live closer to the coast and aren't as much of an ant as I. That being said I have made it a point to purchase an extra generator, extra water, filters, fuel, etc... Some of this of course, can be attributed to you. 

On Monday, October 29th, as is typical for me, I spent time reading and praying and then went to the bank on the way to the office and made my personal deposit for the week. On Tuesday, I received a notice that one of my auto drafts did not go through. Thinking this odd, since I generally keep an eye on my income and expenditures I went online and found that my deposit had not made it into my account, nor had the deposit from the previous week. I called the bank to explain to them what had happened, only to be told that "due to Hurricane Sandy" my checking accounts would all be experiencing delays and problems. I couldn't believe it. I've been with this "Locally owned and operated" institution for several years. How could this happen?? I dug a little deeper and found that our bank had actually been recently bought out by another "Locally owned and operated" institution a couple months earlier and they now run all of our transactions through a servicing firm in New Jersey. Talk about amazed... I was amazed. 

But I was not dazed. I immediately thanked the Lord for the teachings of Dave Ramsey and James Rawles. I went home, opened my safe, distributed enough cash to my family for a week and we went on through for a full week before our bank was able to get our account back in proper order. I truly was and remain very wary of the ripple effect in our all of our lives. It is not new, nor will it ever stop really. We will always have to deal with the ripple effect of a shrinking and connected world. 

I see the current gun debate going on. Within 30 minutes of the Newtown tragedy, the world new and was effected by it. We were all appalled and saddened to say the least. But that is not where it stops. Now we have to tolerate a seemingly knee jerk reaction at this opportune moment by the gun grabbing liberals. This is not truly a knee jerk reaction. They were and remain waiting, anticipating a cause to rally the troops and plant fear in the hearts of law abiding and sometimes ignorant Americans. 

I could go on. Today, what is done in Washington DC does effect me. I can not keep my head in the sand and hope that it will all blow over. It won't. I must make phone calls to our Senators, I must take an active role in our government. I must use my good influence to over come the bad. That being said, I do advise your readers to follow a plan in their finances. Diversify their holdings not only in multiple dollar based stocks but into tangible products, land, a home, precious metals, etc... For the price paid today for that diversification could be nothing compared to it's worth in a few months or years. If you listen to the political pundits you will think that things will always be the way they have always been. But there is only one eternal kingdom and the US of A is not it. And just to clarify and close; the ripple doesn't have to start in Washington DC. It could be Greece, Israel or Iran. I don't know what the cause of the next big ripple will be, but I do know there will be an effect on many areas of our lives.  - K.C.

Apparently, this server is straining as news of the DHS targets is spreading virally.

A friend wrote to ask: "Don't these people have any devil's advocate types on staff who might say, "Gee Bob, I'm not sure this is the best idea..."

Description: [Note: cut and pasted, all typos and bad grammar original to these Protectors and Servers of Freedom]

Non-traditional threat dipicting [sic] a hostile young mother surrounded by childred [sic] on a playground. Background is faded further highligting [sic] and highlighting the threat.
Full Color realistic target.
Size: 23" x 35"

Site is overloaded.  Target shows an armed "hostile" mother with child.

Other targets include young boys.

So cops can practice shooting at them...

- Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large)

JWR Adds: The server seems to have crashed. But InfoWars has now posted an article with target images.

Statists use cleverly constructed language for obfuscation and to further their unconstitutional Big Government agenda. Statists rarely say what they mean or mean what they say.

Ray X., a SurvivalBlog reader in Wyoming provides us the following dictionary that describes what the statists really mean:

Access: Our people put on TV or put in positions of authority, via our access to your wallet.

Activists: Rabble without jobs but with access to TV cameras.

Affirmative Action: Giving hiring preference to those with lower test scores, for countless generations.

Advocacy/Advocate: Advocating our agenda. All others are not Advocates. They are, Radicals, Haters and Tea Baggers.

Agenda, The. The word that shall never be spoken, unless in the context of The Right Wing Agenda. Instead use: Fairness, Change, Hope, New Direction, Social Progress, et cetera.

Agreement (Reaching): Forcing an agenda on unwilling Citizens, via the courts, regulation, legislation, bureaucratic decree, or character assassination through the mass media.

Allocate/Allocation: To extort by coercion, force, or threat of force, under color of law.

Alternative Lifestyle: Guys who do perverse things with other guys, little boys, or goats.

Alternative Media: Leftist guys who couldn't get a job as a newspaper reporter.

Alternative Sentencing: Forcing felons to stay at home under house arrest or give lectures or teach classes about the dangers of criminal behavior instead doing hard time.

Amnesty: Giving citizenship to someone who stole their way into the country and promises to vote Democrat.

Assault Weapon: Any firearm that Dianne Feinstein thinks looks scary, regardless of how it operates.

Assistance: See: Redistribution of Wealth.

Balance/Balanced Media: The scales tipped solidly in the direction of our agenda.

Bias: Any view held by a conservative. (A label we never apply to ourselves or to our Fellow Travelers.)

Big Oil/Big Pharma/Big Tobacco: Any company, regardless of size, with a politically conservative board of directors.

Bipartisan: Making conservatives cave in, repeatedly.

Birther: Epithet hurled at anyone who dares to challenge the place of birth of Barack Obama.

Bitter Clingers: Civilians who refuse to be disarmed.

Budget Cut: Any reduction in the rate of increase of a budget. See Also: Deep Cut.

Budget Imbalance: Spending far too much money of Free Stuff to maintain our large voting bloc.

Cap and Trade: Obsolete term. Use "clean energy" or "market-based", instead.

Carbon Credit: Paying people overseas to not produce things, so that our companies can, with permission, under close supervision, and with fines for any company that produces too much.

Censorship: Refusing to allow taxpayer funds to be used to push our agenda.

Change: Fabian Socialism or Marxism, depending on the speed of the change.

Child Development: Molding young people into compliant sheeple. Requires lots of Programs.

Choice: Choosing to murder a baby, at taxpayer expense.

Civil Union: Two sodomites who want to pretend they are normal, and want to be given health benefits to cover the cost of their expensive HIV medications.

Clean Energy: Energy created by Programs and the lavish infusion of taxpayer dollars, regardless of the cost per kilowatt hour.

Coalition: A group of groups that excludes the participation and opinions of conservative or libertarian groups.

Codeword: The term we use to demonize anyone who stands for less government, individual responsibility, and

Common Sense: Our agenda, on our terms, and on our timetable.

Common Sense Gun Laws: Civilian disarmament.

Community Leader: A leftist who has learned how to work the system.

Compassion: Wealth redistribution.

Compound: Any house outside of city limits that is owned by either a Kennedy or a Survivalist.

Concerned Citizens: People who agree with our agenda. All others are Radical Right Wingers.

Contributions: Coerced payments. See: Revenue, Taxes

Compromise: Forcing you to agree with the statist agenda.

Consensus: Using Focus Groups and other tools to drag everyone into agreement with our agenda.

Conservative: Anyone who drags their feet or who speaks out against the statist agenda. See also: Ultraconservative.

Constituency: The deluded fools that keep voting us into office, again and again.

Contribution: A tax or fee.

Create jobs: Create new agencies and programs. If any actual jobs are thence created then they must only be government jobs or union jobs.

Crisis: Any event, however small, that is an excuse for more government.

Cultural Literacy: New curriculum designed to encourage Alternative Lifestyles, Diversity, Sensitivity, Fairness, et cetera Never include any mention of the Bible or The Constitution of the United States, which were creations of Dead White Males.

Deadlock (Legislative): Failure to move quickly enough in advancing our Agenda.

Dead White Male: The originators of all human suffering who we must denigrate at every opportunity

Debt (public): Money that we spent that we didn't have, but which doesn't matter, because we can always print more.

Debt Ceiling: The convenient fiction that there is a limit to what we can spend on Programs. Revised annual or semiannually, as needed, following false protestations and then Compromise.

Deep Cut: A decrease in the rate of increase of a budget by more than 10%.

Deeply concerned: I have no intention of changing anything.

Deep Pockets: The ultimate source of Revenue.

Deficit: Money that we overspent and haven't yet taxed or created out of thin air.

Democracy: Socialist tyranny, via incrementalism.

Democrat: The political party that is pushing statism, in a hurry. (See also: Republican.)

Deserving: Daytime TV-watching and EBT card-using.

Dialog: A mono-directional lecture from the Ivory Tower to the plebeian masses. They are then told that they "have a voice."

Dictator: Any national leader who doesn't agree with our agenda. Anyone who does is a Leader.

Disadvantaged: Multigenerationally accustomed to sucking from the welfare teat.

Disparity: Some who makes less money than you, but who wants Free Stuff.

Diversity: Let's force people to stop saying "no" to sodomy, bestiality, and pedophilia.

Divisive/Divisiveness: Anyone who disagrees with our agenda.

Eco-Friendly Lighting: Chinese-made Mercury-Laden Light Bulbs

Economic Justice: Marxism.

Enhancement: Getting things to go more our way.

Election: An advance sale on stolen goods.

Empowered/Empowerment: Getting more Free Stuff at taxpayer expense, and face time on TV.

Elite: Anyone with a Wikipedia biography page but who does not agree with us.

Enable: Handing out taxpayer money.

Entitled: See: Deserving.

Equal Access to Opportunity: Jobs based on quotas rather than merit.

Equality: Inequality enforced regardless of facts or logic. Also: Paying everyone the same regardless of whether or not they choose to work. Bonus definition: Fining anyone for being above average.

Estimated Tax: Self-employed people writing huge quarterly checks for their own enslavement.

Excess Profits: The profits of any company that doesn't buy in to the statist agenda.

Extremist: Anyone who dares to speak up for their God-given rights.

Fairness: Giving Free Stuff to people who did not work for it, at the expense of people who did.

Fairness Doctrine: Always giving the statist agenda prominence, and making conservatives pay for the air time to do so.

Fair Share/Fair Shot: Taxing some people at a higher rate than others.

Fee/Fine/Assessment/Levy/License: A tax by any other name.

First Amendment: Freedom from any mention of Christianity in schools. (But not Wicca or Islam, which should be part of the new school curriculum.)

Fiscal Conservative: A socially liberal politician, regardless of their voting record. (All Democrats are automatically "Fiscal Conservatives.")

Flash Mob: "Youths" who have learned how to use their Obama Phones to get Free Stuff without even signing up for a Program.

Focus Group: Putting people in a room, reaching the lowest common denominator, and then labeling it Consensus.

Freedom: The freedom to do only what we tell you what you can do.

Free Thinker: People in our constituency who have a hostility to faith in God.

Free Stuff: Stuff we don't have to pay for. You pay for all of it, but just don't realize it.

Freedom Fighter: Anyone in a conflict overseas who agrees with our agenda. In contrast anyone who does not agree is a Colonialist, Imperialist, a Terrorist or an Evil Oppressor.

Free Press: Our lackeys who are fully or partially complicit with our agenda.

Fully-Funded: A Program that has reached multiple teats.

Funding: See: Taxes.

Global: A policy that matches the Agenda of the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.

Global Warming: : Obsolete term. Use "climate change" instead. (You know, just incase of a Little Ice Age.)

Good Government: More government, with incremental degradation of liberty. In the long term, total government.

Gun Buy-Back: Paying 10 cents on the dollar for something that we never owned, and then destroying it at taxpayer expense.

Gun Control: People control, dissent control, and civilian disarmament.

The Gun Lobby: Gun owning Citizens.

Gun Show Loophole: Two guys in the same state, privately transacting the sale of a used gun, like they've always done.

Harmony: The lack of resistance to our Agenda

Hater: Anyone who loves individual freedom and who stands up for God's Moral Law

Hate Speech: Saying something critical of our agenda. standing up for morality, or otherwise speaking the truth.

Helping Hand: The hand that helps dollars out of your wallet and into government coffers, and then helps a portion of those dollars into the wallets of layabouts.

High Capacity Magazine: Standard capacity magazine. (We deceptively called any magazine over 10 rounds "high capacity" when in fact the standard military issue has been 30 rounds or even 40 rounds since the early 1970s. Thus, we want to force the plebes to own only reduced capacity magazines.)

Homeless: Bums.

Homophobia: Term of derision for failure to enthusiastically subscribe to the homosexual agenda.

Human Rights: The Right to free health care, the right to a Living Wage, et cetera. To pay for providing all of these "rights" necessitates a large and intrusive government, and taxing your income, to operate it. (Note that "Human Rights" do not include the right to keep and near arms, the right to home school your children, the right to work without joking a union, the right to travel without being searched, et cetera. Those are rather privileges, which must be closely regulated. )

Inclusion/Inclusive/Inclusiveness: Including people with every wacky idea imaginable into our power base, to form a larger voting bloc

Inflation: Obsolete term. Instead use: Monetary Policy.

Injustice: Anyone who has not yet benefited from Wealth Redistribution.

Inflation: Stealing your money incrementally, so that you don't notice it.

Integrity: Willingness to buy in to our Agenda.

Invest in: Fund with tax dollars, lavishly and interminably.

Investment/Invest in the Future: A new tax.

It takes a village: Obsolete term. Use "Governance" instead.

Judgmental: Anyone with moral values and discernment.

Justice: Just Us.

Labor Organizer: A leftist who quit his job to push The Agenda, and now lives off the "dues" or other forced contributions of guys who still work for a living.

Labor Union: An organization that two or three generations ago fought for fair working conditions but now exists only to perpetuate itself and to push The Agenda.

Less fortunate: Layabouts and moochers.

LGBT: An initialism that secretly stands for Liberal Goat-Loving Blasphemous Terrorists.

Liberal: An obsolete and soiled term. Do Not Use. Instead substitute "Progressive" in all cases.

License: Permission to do what would otherwise be illegal under our make-believe laws, granted only after coerced payment of a fee.

Living Wage: Enough money, whether it is earned or not, to have air conditioning and a big screen TV.

Long Term Obligation: Money that is mathematically impossible to repay unless we inflate away the value of the currency by more than 90%.

Lower Income Workers: People who don't work but who are given a middle class income, at taxpayer expense.

Marginalized: Someone who has not yet (in their opinion) received enough Free Stuff.

Marxist: A statist who has foolishly tipped his hand.

Mean-Spirited: People who want to keep what they earn.

Mechanism: Our latest scheme. See also: Program.

Metrosexual: An ostensibly straight guy who thinks his neighbor's perversion is okay.

Militia Movement: Two or more Citizens who have similar gripes and who each own a gun.

Minority-owned business: A business that is foolishly started in an economically depressed ghetto. This term does not apply to Asians or to any successful businesses owned by minorities if they are in wealthy suburbs. Hence, Famous Amos Cookies is not a "Minority-owned business." See also: Uncle Tom.

Misunderstood: Insane, Idiotic, or Perverted.

Moderate: Left wing.

Money: The stuff that was once minted with silver and gold, but is now created out of thin air.

Move forward: Move to the left, create a Program, and subsidize with tax dollars.

Monopoly: Any company with market capitalization greater than $200 million USD, regardless of their market share.

Multicultural: High crime.

Narrative: What we call the history that we don't like and would prefer didn't really exist.

Nation Building: Sending American taxpayer dollars to prop up Third World dictatorships.

Nazi: A derisive term formerly reserved for members of the National Socialist Party in Germany, but now used as smear for anyone who opposes Socialism.

Neocon: A derisive term that we apply to anyone not in the Hard Left Camp, regardless of where they are on political spectrum, or when they got there. No longer has anything to do with George McGovern and the politics of 1972.

Nonviable Tissue Mass: An unborn baby.

Obamacare: Socialist imposition of medicine paid by a few taxpayers but provided to all, and brought to the lowest common denominator. Wait in line over there.

Obama Phone: More Free Stuff, for loafers. This device has the side benefit of alerting other loafers about where to line up or sign up for more free stuff.

Obstacles: Anything that stands between our constituents and the Free Stuff.

Occupy ___________(Location). Organize smelly layabouts to camp out, beat on drums, and demand The Agenda and more Free Stuff.

Offshoring: Sending factory jobs overseas, so that the then-unemployed will vote Democrat--because their party claims to stands for unions, job protection, and long term unemployment benefits.

Open-Minded: Those who embrace sin without any reservations.

Oppressor(s): Taxpayers who speak out against the statist agenda.

Opportunity: See Revenue and Wealth Redistribution.

Our: Your. (e.g.: Our Resources, Our Taxes, Our Cities, Our Nation, etc.)

Our Troops (Supporting): Formerly our sons, now Their Troops, used to collect revenue and assure a steady flow of overseas oil.

Outcome: Getting things our way.

Palestinian: Mostly Arab Muslims who got kicked out of North Africa or Saudi Arabia and then settled in Israel to get ahead economically when they saw Jews were prospering there. We pretend that they've lived there since Biblical Times. Does not apply to Jews with multigenerational roots in Palestine.

Patriot Movement: Anyone who dares to speak out against statism.

Patriarchy: A label used by those who make believe that it wasn't only men who founded and led Western Society and who signed the Declaration of Independence.

Payroll deduction: Stealing your money incrementally, so that you don't notice it.

People of Color: People of a dark skin tone who promise to vote Democrat. (Does not apply to any gainfully employed Asians or to anyone with dark skin who is a registered Republican. See: Uncle Tom.)

Privileged, The: Anyone who make more than $100,000 per year unless he a is liberal.

Poor, The: Anyone who doesn't want to work, but promises to vote Democrat.

Privileged: Anyone who works for a living. (See also: Oppressor and The Rich.)

Pro-Choice: Insisting on taxpayer-funded abortion.

Program: Waste of money, our latest scheme.

Progressive: Marxist, collectivist, or otherwise regressive to personal freedom.

Property tax: Paying rent to someone who doesn't own your land.

Provide: To take from one (by coercion) and to provide as "Free Stuff" to another.

Public Education: Systematic indoctrination into the statist mindset.

Public Housing: Taxpayer-paid housing for layabouts.The buildings are destroyed through neglect and abuse and then torn down and replaced at great expense roughly every 30 years.

Public-Private Partnership: Fascism.

Quantitative Easing: Creating Dollars out of thin air to prop up the Bond market and to dilute the value of all other Dollars already in circulation.

Racist: Anyone who opposes the statist agenda, regardless of their thoughts on race or ethnicity.

Radical Right/Radical Right Wingers: Anyone who dares to speak out against statism or refuses to be disarmed.

Reasonable Restriction: Degradation of a pre-existing right.

Redistribution of Wealth: Theft for the purpose of implementing Marxist Leninism. This is an obsolete and maligned term. Instead use: Empower, Give Respect, or Allocate.

Religious Freedom: The freedom to tout any religion and inject it into public school curriculum, except Christianity.

Representative: The elected officials who formerly represented the people, but who now represent an agenda.

Reproductive Health: Murdering unborn babies.

Reparations: Payment for a crime committed seven generations ago, even if your family never owned slaves and opposed slavery, or if your kin has only been in America for three generations.

Republican: The political party that is pushing statism, but in less of a hurry. (See also: Democrat.)

Respect: Paying Tribute.

Revenue: Theft, by any means possible.

The Rich: Anyone who works hard and saves part of what they earn. (See also: Hater, Privileged and Oppressor.)

Rights: Our constituents' rights to Free Stuff.

Right Wing/Right Winger: Anyone more conservative than Chairman Mao.

Safety: More government. (Such as: Airline Safety, Gun Safety, Highway Safety, etc.)

Say No To Drugs: Say Yes To Some Legalized Drugs.

Sell Out: See Uncle Tom.

Second Amendment: An obsolete part of the Constitution that protects the National Guard's right to keep weapons.

Senate: The elected body that once represented the states, but who now represent an agenda.

Separation of church and state: Exclusion of Christianity from schools. (But not Islam, because it is trendy.)

Share The Wealth: See: Redistribution of Wealth

Situational Ethics: Abandoning ethical and moral values.

Sliding Scale: Charging higher fees to the people who work hard, and less for people who don't work at all.

Sniper Rifle: Scoped deer rifle.

Social Contract: Big government, more government, higher taxes.

Socialism: Obsolete, soiled term. Do not use. Use "Fairness:, "Empowerment", ,or "Investment" instead.

Social Justice: Wealth redistribution.

Social Responsibility: Abandoning personal responsibility and signing up for the Free Stuff.

Social Security: The promise to pay people money that doesn't exist, in perpetuity.

Social Security Trust Fund: A nonexistent pool of money that has been promised in perpetuity.

Sovereign Citizens: Those whackos who dare to believe that they have rights that cannot be violated.

Special Interest Groups: Conservative companies that dare speak up, or contribute to political campaigns. (Does not apply to liberals who do the same thing.)

Special Needs: Kids that we want to give special or individualized instruction that we aren't willing to pay for.

Sporting Firearms: The humble-looking guns that we haven't tried to ban yet.

Stakeholder: Anyone who wants More Free Stuff.

Statistical Anomaly: How we dismiss any statistics that are embarrassing.

Stimulus: Handing out money that was either taxed or created out of thin air.

Streets, The: More accurately: Your house or Your bedroom closet. (As in: "Get guns off the streets.")

Survivalist: Anyone we dislike who lives outside of city limits, or who had "survival" training (such as that given to all Boy Scouts.)

Sustainable: A Government Program or industry propped up by the Government that can be sustained, ad infinitum, only with taxpayer funds.

Talking Point(s): Our agenda, cozily wrapped up in soothing terms, delivered to our friends in the media, for delivery to the sheeple.

Taxes: Money, coerced under threat of force and under color of law, that we we take from The Privileged to implement our agenda.

Tax Loophole: Any legal way to avoid being robbed too badly, as used by literate people (i.e. those who can read Tax Code.)

Tax Refund: Giving you back part of what we incrementally stole from you, and making you feel joyful for getting it.

Tea Bagger: Anyone who dares to speak out against the agenda. See also: Hater, Oppressor, The Rich.

Tenth Amendment:An obsolete part of the Constitution that was never intended to prevent the preeminence of the Federal Government and its Programs.

Tolerance: Toleration of our agenda. (Tolerating anything else is intolerable Hate Speech.) A key goal of Tolerance is silencing anyone who disagrees with out Agenda. That is not tolerated.

Too Big To Fail: Too Cozy to Prosecute.

Treasury Department Officials: Former stock brokers, who now "regulate" other stock brokers.

Ultraconservative: Any conservative who finds a media platform.

Unfair: People who work harder earning more than those who don't.

Urban: High crime area.

Uncle Tom: People of a darker skin tone who don't unquestioningly adhere to the statist agenda.

Underprivileged: Anyone who votes for a living rather than works for a living.

Undocumented Immigrant: Illegal Alien, future registered Democrat.

Union Shop: An employer that in the name "freedom of association" refuses to hire anyone who doesn't want to associate with their union.

Universal Background Checks: Universal Gun Registration. (And leading to Universal Gun Confiscation.)

Victim(s): Poor, inner-city People of Color who are seen as suffering any offense, either real or imagined. This term does not apply to rich White or Asian people, even when they are killed or when their livelihoods are wiped out.

War on Terror/Drugs/Poverty/Ex Cetera. Excuse for bigger government.

Weapons Cache: A gun collection consisting of more than three guns.

Welfare: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul a Living Wage, whether he wants to work, or not.

We Owe it to Ourselves: You owe it to us, or we'll throw you in prison for tax evasion.

White Guilt: A time travel metaphor for people in the present somehow causing the wrongs of their Great-great-great-grandfathers, or for people of the same era who were no kin to them whatsoever.

White Hispanics: People with Spanish surnames, regardless of skin tone, who make more than $100,000 per year. (See also: Oppressor.)

White Male. The Devil. Unless he is a registered Democrat, but even then, he still must have White Guilt and support Affirmative Action and Reparations, as penance.

White Male Value System: Antiquated adherence to hard work, property rights, morality, etc. See also Bitter Clingers.

Windfall profits: Any profits, if earned by the wrong company.

Win the future: Create more Programs

Workers: The children or grandchildren of people who once worked, but who now watch TV and collect Free Stuff.

Working Poor: People who haven't yet received enough Free Stuff or reached the status of Community Leader.

Voluntary: Mandatory, under threat of force and under color of law.

You didn't build that: You DID build that, but we'd like to tax most of it away from you, and give it to someone who lives in Public Housing and uses his EBT card to party at strip clubs.

Youths: Gang members.

Zero Tolerance: Not allowing anything we don't like (e.g.: Smoking, 32-ounce sodas, Hate Speech, etc.)

The biggest threat to this country right now is the Socialist/Progressive movement that includes the belief that we should not be “America the great, the free”; that we must take our appropriate place among the world leaders as equals, and that we must “spread the wealth” to ensure “social justice”.  In the end, this type of thinking leads to a one-world government under the leadership of a “benevolent” governing body who controls our every move.  This belief has undermined the security of this country and exposed us to those who would have us dead - the external threats.  The internal threat is the systematic weakening of our constitutional rights and the socialization of our country.  There is no other modern society on the face of the planet that has enjoyed the prosperity that Americans have enjoyed.  Our success was built upon the Constitution, freedom to prosper, the belief in God-given unalienable rights, and Christian principles.

The conclusion that I have come to, outside of water and food storage, arms, self-sufficient lifestyle, etc., is that we must learn to live a double life.  We must give every appearance of being good little citizens (sheeple), while secretly preparing to go underground, to disappear, and to live invisibly.  Why?  Because we could become targets, be labeled “terrorists”, or deemed a threat to national security, because we disagree with the direction our country is headed, because we speak out against government overreach.

I have spent many years, reading every book/blog/opinion on privacy and security and I am a security professional by trade.  I learned the most from J.J. Luna (his blog and book “How To Be Invisible”.)  The biggest challenge with living under the radar is that we live in an interconnected society, most transactions that we make are electronic, which means there is a paper trail.  We bank electronically, we communicate electronically, we buy and sell electronically (point of sale systems at grocery store, gas station, etc.).  Smartphones and technology services like OnStar (in our cars), make our geographical location “traceable”.  Our personal records including medical, educational, employment, familial, and financial records are all in electronic form and stored in vast databases.  Everything about us is known.  There is no hiding place, unless… we create a separate identity for ourselves.  I am not talking about illegal activities, fake ID’s, or anything of that nature.  I am talking about becoming largely invisible on the one hand, and being totally visible on the other.
Your visible self has a home and an address, is known in the community, works a job (hopefully), participates in community activities, and conducts itself normally.  This is the self that you will maintain.  Your invisible self has no name, no address, is not known outside of the closest family members and trusted individuals, uses cash, not credit, barters for daily needs, and lives as self-sufficiently as possible.  If you had to walk out your front door today, never to return, while making it appear that you are still actively participating in your life, how could you do that?

The process for living a double life is fraught with difficulty because we are upright, law abiding, Christian people.  Nonetheless, we must think about, study, and learn what other peoples in other countries have done to protect their lives and their families under despots, oppressive regimes, and under threat to life and liberty.  Thinking like this is foreign to Americans because we have enjoyed liberty and luxury for generations.

If you are not following me, let me recap the necessity of creating the alternate you.  There is the possibility that our government may become hostile and oppressive, demonstrated by the slow and consistent erosion of our constitutional rights.  There is the possibility that our country could be invaded by hostile forces.  It is also true, that we may, at some point in our lives, need or want to drop out of sight to protect our privacy due to a frivolous lawsuit or due to a stalker or just plain exhaustion from the rat race.  We must acknowledge that our true selves have no place to hide, due for the most part to advanced technology and electronic communications.  Dropping our true selves out of sight is problematic and garners attention.
We must keep our visible self visible, and our invisible self invisible.
The following are steps we can take to create our alternate life, while operating within the law (each step explained further following the list):
1. Create anonymous, cash-based, home based, side businesses (may include bartering).
2. Operate outside the banking system with your new alternate source of income.
3. Pay cash for any purchases relating to prepping, purchase in small, consistent increments.
4. Locate and lease or buy with cash alternate accommodations/housing, private-party, avoiding credit checks/paper trail.
5. Keep a low profile.
6. Register vehicles (must be paid off) in a company name.
7. Prep the alternate location, plan the route out, and practice the plan.

Here they are, in detail:

1. Anonymous, cash based, home based businesses.
Keeping food on the table and a roof over your head is the highest priority, correct?  Like most people, we have to work for a living.  If you have a current job, keep it and do well at it.  In your spare time, you must start several side businesses that operate on a cash basis.  You will report your net income to the IRS because it is the law, but you are not required to divulge what your business does.  For taxation purposes, your business entity is you.  If your business is primarily services related, you do not have to deal with the local sales taxing authorities if services are not taxed in your state.  If you must sell product, it is taxable.  If you are required to register your business in your state, county, city, do so, but do so carefully.  At no point in the process will you reveal your real name, real address, or provide any information that leads back to you.

Frank A. Ahern has written a couple of books (if you can get over the profanity), that reveal how skip tracers (and anyone in law enforcement) track people down.  The information he provides will be invaluable when it is time for you to disappear from your visible life, or how to conduct your invisible life while maintaining your visible life.  Since skip tracing became an unpopular and illegal activity, Frank decided to reengineer himself into a privacy consultant.  His focus is on disinformation and I found the idea very tantalizing.  If I could put enough wrong information about myself “out there” (on the Internet, in the various national databases), I could be quite hard to find if I decided to disappear. 

Another useful book, Hiding from the Internet: Eliminating Personal Online Information by Michael Bazzell, offers step by step instructions to eliminating your personal online information.  A very simple method is to Google yourself, and try various incarnations of your name(s).  For each web site where your personal information appears, follow the instructions for removing your personal information.  Many data aggregators provide a way to do that online and some make it very difficult.  Set up a Google alert on your name, so that each time your name(s) appear online, an email will be sent to you.  In keeping with Ahern’s strategy, rather than remove yourself, request your information be modified to “more accurately reflect your information”.  Get the idea?

It is funny (and sad), but what you will need to do is think like organized crime does, without committing any crime.  Your cash based business will not have a web site, a Facebook page, business cards, a sign on the side of your car, a listing in the phone book, or any other vestiges of marketing.  How do you market it? Word of mouth. (More options, such as Internet Businesses later on). Yes, it is the underground economy that you will be entering. However, you will report your income and pay taxes on it, like a good citizen (sheeple). You will never accept a check – only cash, cold hard cash.

Sit down and do detailed skills assessment. What are you good at? My skillset is in technology, security, and privacy. I am in process of reviving a side business that helps individuals and groups use technology privately and securely. I wish I had skills in many homesteading areas, but I am trying to teach myself. A fair trade in my mind would be to trade my skills for your farm fresh meats and produce, and handyman services. For those who can pay for private security technology services, I would arrange for my services at very reasonable barter prices. After all, I do not expect the top dollar consulting pay I make in the “real world” in exchange for complete privacy and cash. In a bartering economy, the price is determined by the demand. Right now, I see very little concern among individuals as to their online privacy and security. The demand will come when the time is right. Suffice it to say, at some point you will need to communicate using the Internet in a completely anonymous way. You will want to erase your Internet footprints and fingerprints; you will want to request deletion of your information from public and private databases, you will want your home computers safe from prying eyes, and highly sensitive electronic information safe from disclosure or confiscation, and you will want to be able to circumvent government sponsored censorship of Internet resources. Unless you plan on using carrier pigeons, smoke signals, or plan to never again communicate with your family, this is a skill you must have.
Is an Internet business the right thing for you? It is if you can manage the complexity, security, and privacy components of it.

An anonymous Internet business requires a wide variety of skills, mostly related to technology. It is possible to create one in an anonymous and secure fashion, but it is not easy. You will need to consider such things as web hosting offshore, out of U.S. jurisdiction. However, even then, transborder communications are monitored by the National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security, so why make your web site a target of suspicion by offshoring hosting? It would be better to use a local hosting company and retain control over your web site security and data, or host your own equipment (not from your home – yes, it gets complicated). Either way, there is a lot to understand, think about, and pay attention to. If you used PayPal (recommended) for payments via your web site, PayPal will verify you are who you say you are when you open an account. PayPal also requires a verifiable bank account for you to access your cash quickly (instantly via ATM and several business days for bank transfers). In recent times, PayPal has started to insist on social security numbers and date of birth, especially if you try to use a PayPal account sans a bank account. In all cases, it would be very tricky indeed to keep your Internet business from pointing right back to you. You could go the BitCoin route, but I have not tried that yet, so I cannot advise. Unless you have the skills to set up a completely anonymous Internet business, do not do it.

Another option is to begin your new cash business behind the doors of your existing business. Isn’t that what organized crime does? The only legality concern is income and taxes. If you keep it clean, legal, and safe, it shouldn’t be anybody’s business what you do in your own space, owned, or leased.
The goal is to create alternate revenue streams “off the public books” and out of the public eye, so if you have to walk away from your real job, you won’t starve.

2. Operate outside the banking system
Operating outside the banking system is extremely difficult. If you work for a large employer, like I do, paychecks are auto-deposited. Even the Social Security Administration is requiring recipients to provide a bank account for funds deposit. It used to be that SAR (Suspicious Activity Reports) were only created by a bank when a $10,000 or more cash deposit was made, but I heard recently through the law enforcement grapevine, that even $5,000 and as little as $3,000 cash deposits are being tracked and reported by your bank. If you think your bank account is yours, it’s not. It’s the bank’s and they are being called upon to report more and more details about cash transactions (to the FBI). The only solution is to keep your cash “at home”. There is plenty written on survivalblog about how to hide cash. J.J. Luna also offers a book and advice on how to hide cash.

I have tried numerous times to operate on a cash basis and I have found it extremely difficult in our modern society. Take a simple example, like filling your gas tank. I’m used to swiping at the pump and when the weather is cold, I don’t like walking “all the way” over to the main building, going inside, waiting in line, to pay the cashier, walking back to the truck, etc. Wow. We have become so spoiled, and we are accustomed to convenience. I’ve tried to use cash for grocery store runs that include stocking up, and find that I filled my cart with more than I had the cash to pay for, so I swiped the card. Living on a cash basis requires extreme discipline. No more Internet purchasing (my favorite!), no more plastic. The only way to keep your private life private is to live on a cash basis. However, I am not advocating a total cash based life. Your public life needs to remain normal looking and your bank account transactions need to appear normal. Your private (invisible life) needs to utilize cash. Keeping the two separate is where the extreme discipline comes in.

Basically, you will have to earn cash from an alternate cash based business, and you will have to purchase items using cash. This is inconvenient. In order to avoid suspicion, don’t buy bulk all at once. Recall earlier last year when the FBI issued the “ Potential Indicators of Terrorist Activities”, part of the “Communities Against Terrorism” program – someone’s really bright (read stupid) idea, that gives the federal government a basis to target ordinary citizens and classify them as terrorists. Google it. You will be aghast at the list of ordinary activities that are being classified as “potential terrorist” activities.

Here’s how I decided to attack this problem of buying bulk, I slowly increased my normal shopping routine to include bulk items, so that over time, my normal purchasing habits have remained consistent. I shop at a Super Wal-Mart (great place for bulk items at low cost). I don’t order emergency supplies over the Internet. I don’t walk in and make a several thousand dollar purchase. I know this sounds really ridiculous, but we are being watched.

Perhaps someone just needs to pay you by check and you agree to accept it (this applies only to low denominations). Don’t think you can go to that person’s bank and cash it at the teller window without some effort. I tried this once and was asked for a fingerprint, ID, and was charged a $5 fee, and the teller stared at me and was rude (the check was for $1,000). Just stick with cash.
If you need to get cash from your checking or savings account in order to have cash on hand, start by making it a habit of withdrawing small amounts of cash at the ATM, slowly, over the course of time – payday would be a good day to target – everyone takes out a little money on payday. Don’t show up at the bank and withdraw thousands of dollars at any one time. Isn’t this ridiculous?

3. Pay cash for any purchases relating to prepping, purchase in small, consistent increments.
I know it feels good to make that bulk food purchase online and have it shipped to your home or alternate address in unmarked boxes, but that purchase is traceable to you and puts you on the “potential terrorist” watch list, right? If you have already done it, don’t worry about it. Moving forward, don’t do it again. You may have to start planning mini vacations to visit suppliers and pay cash for your purchases. Try to purchase in prepper friendly states, such as Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. My tact has been to stock up incrementally during regular purchases. I established a pattern of purchasing over the past two years that allows for stocking up while appearing to be the usual shopping. While some have advised purchasing outside your area where you are known, I prefer shopping at my local Wal-Mart Superstore where the cashiers are friendly local people used to my dragging two full carts through the registers every other week. I don’t call attention to my purchases by doing “extreme couponing”. I make small talk with the cashier and ensure that I mention how relieved I am to be able to do my monthly shopping on one trip, how expensive teenagers are, along with other seemingly useless conversation. It’s a good idea to not be overly friendly, but polite and engaging. Ask the cashier how his or her day is going while your purchases are mindlessly scanned through.

4. Locate and lease or buy with cash alternate accommodations/housing, private-party, avoiding credit checks/paper trail.
This has been the most difficult objective for me personally. I do not have the financial means of buying suitable property outright (cash) in addition to my primary residence. The only option for me is to “lease vacation property” from a private party.  J.J. Luna has excellent advice on how to lease anonymously using cash. He suggests making a larger than normal cash deposit with the private party owner (you will not go through a realtor or property management company) in exchange for anonymity. Use any excuse you want to ensure the landlord understands your need for privacy (abusive ex-spouse, stalker, high pressure/high visibility sensitive position, etc.). You will always pay with a cashier’s check. If the Landlord wants to see your ID, you offer your passport as proof of citizenship, not your driver’s license or other documentation, and you never offer your social security number or consent to a credit check. References are the easy part. The best way to get this accomplished is to take vacation time to explore the various areas of interest and inquire in person at the local establishments (coffee shop, supply store, etc.). You could order the local paper, but make sure you have it sent to your P.O. Box rather than your home address. Little towns are also well known for their enjoyment of gossip. As long as you take care of the property and are seen to be vacationing there frequently, are friendly and helpful to the locals, your intermittent presence should not be a problem.

5. Keep a low profile.
This is more difficult for some than others. I have an introverted personality and I naturally keep a low profile. I’m a geek. My husband, on the other hand, is in Sales and he is extroverted, enthusiastic, popular, active, and involved in the community. Everyone in our community has his personal cell phone number. Coaching him over the last several years to “tone it down” has been difficult. My advice is: dump the expensive watch, fancy car, name brand clothes, and shoes, cool it on the aftershave, and stop making our home the hub of every get together. Hmmm. I sound very bah humbug, but we need to divert the entertaining to some neutral territory, like the local pub or restaurant.  

Get off Social Networking permanently, never to return. Or alternatively, create the “fake you” Facebook page and post inane, funny, silly things, being careful to keep pictures of yourself and family members out of Facebook’s databases, never let anyone in your community know where your retreat property is, don’t post pictures of it on Facebook, comprende?    One of the biggest mistakes we all make in our technologically advanced society, is forget that our technology is our undoing.  Every “word we’ve spoken” (in email, on the web) is recorded somewhere and most likely resides in a database somewhere.  If the government really wanted to hunt you down, it would be easy – you gave them all the information they wanted by emailing a family member, posting on Facebook, or starting a blog.  

At a recent family gathering, we had a huge discussion about how we needed to stop discussing “prepping” on e-mail.  This is so hard to do.  We are geographically dispersed and email is soooo easy to use.  We only see one another a few times a year.  I don’t know the answer.  

We made a huge decision to close our small, local business this year. This will give us the flexibility to leave when we need to. The Pros and Cons were weighed over and over and over. The Cons won. We have cited “health” reasons for closing our business.  We agreed to make the time to take small trips throughout the year to investigate properties we could lease. We will treat our time together as mini-vacation/honeymoon time.

6. Register vehicles (must be paid off) in a company name.
If you ever had to leave Dodge, it would be a very good idea to leave in a nondescript vehicle that was registered in a private company name, not your own name. It is important that the vehicle be in good working order so as not to arouse suspicion or the attention of the highway patrol. Now that the highway patrol makes use (in many states) of hi-tech scanners, they don’t have to pull you over to “run your plates”. It’s done automatically as soon as your vehicle is in range. If, for some reason, you found yourself on an “undesirable prepper” list, it would be wise to ensure that your escape vehicle was not linked to you personally in any way. Now, of course, if you get pulled over, you have to show your driver’s license. Some people are quite stubborn about handing over a driver’s license when being pulled over, but I suggest to you that if you want to be on your way quickly, cooperate with “license and registration please”. It’s easy to explain that the car is a “company car” and you and your family are going on vacation to Whereverville. Always make sure the lights are working all the way around and for gosh sakes, don’t speed, or do anything stupid, like flip off a trucker, to garner attention. J.J. Luna offers help and advice on his blog as to how to register your vehicle in a private LLC.

7. Prep the alternate location, plan the route out, and practice the plan.
No need for any embellishment here – the expert content is on SurvivalBlog. If you really had to leave your home for an extended period of time, make sure your preparations have included securing the home you have left behind. My plan is to change the way we live slowly (but quickly, if that makes sense), to include long “vacation trips”, so that we spend time at our retreat property at least several months out of the year to begin with, and extend that duration over time, so that it seems quite natural to be gone frequently. As far as our friends in the community would know, we decided to take life a bit easier and really enjoy our retirement. Other “excuses” you could propagate are “my husband/wife took a job in Whereverville (not your retreat location please!) and the only way we can make this work for our family is to spend time in both places”. Alternatively, how about, “oh my mom and dad are not well and we committed to spending more time with them”. On the other hand, “life is short, we are out having fun and seeing the world!”.  

A note to those who are averse to telling a lie:  If the Gestapo were banging on your door, asking for the whereabouts of a family member, would you tell a lie to protect their life?  Think about it.  Get in the habit of providing lots of information without providing any information at all. Don’t mention the name of the town where your retreat is, don’t write it down, don’t put it in an email, on Facebook, don’t search the Internet for properties from your home computer, etc. Keep it in your brain and don’t ever keep a paper trail, electronic or otherwise. When you are at your retreat location, you will be using cash not your bank card. Your bank card transactions are perhaps the single most effective way of tracking you down. Don’t use it to fill your tank when you are on the road. Frank A. Ahern shares some interesting stories on this topic in his book. He suggested creating fake paper trails in locations quite far from your retreat location. His suggestions included putting in an application for a rental apartment, replete with credit check (to create a false record), purchasing small items at a local store, signing up for telephone service, and even opening a checking account at the local bank, only to abandon completion of the above tasks. These actions create the illusion that this is where you are going to move to. Meanwhile, you are on the other side of the country, anonymously, prepping your retreat.

In conclusion, my twist to surviving what is coming, is to live a double life, and slip out undetected when the time is right. The detail required to live a double life is overwhelming, but start small and try to work through each major category a little bit at a time.  Keep in mind at all times that we are being watched, Big Brother is here, and you never know when your name will show up on an “undesirable” list.  Be safe and Godspeed.

Mr. Rawles,
I have to make a comment about information in this article that is just wrong and I have seen others wrongly assume on the internet before.

There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to keep metal within the cage from touching the conductor that makes up the Faraday Cage. The reason is that the cage (assuming it has been constructed without gaps or holes, as it should be) forms an "INFINITE" barrier between the electric fields inside and outside of the cage. No electric field can go through the cage because they are dispersed across the surface and do not propagate through. The inside and outside are electrically isolated from each other.

As an experiment, take a radio that is receiving and you can hear the music, wrap it in aluminum foil and make sure the antenna is TOUCHING the metal. As soon as you make a completely enclosed cage, the radio will go to static because the waves CANNOT reach the antenna. The charge is only on the outside.

People falsely believe things cannot touch the side because the cage is a conductor. As I have explained, when constructed correctly, the outside and inside are in isolation.

Just to qualify my responses, I am an electrical engineer who studied electromagnetics in school and I work in the power industry. I did not list the equations to prove the material, but I can send detailed information about why electric fields do not go through conductors, only propagate on the outside. Or, you can pickup any introductory electromagnetics textbook and read about Faraday's experiments and equations and other information for yourself from people who are a lot smarter than us.
Thank you, - Cason R.

Dear JWR:
After reading the post this morning on buried items, I would like to share a thought.

If you bury items in PVC pipe and use threaded fittings, you will have to use a pipe dope to seal out moisture.  If you do this, unscrewing the fitting is going to be an ordeal.  You would have to dig out an area big enough to swing a very large wrench if you have one.  Or you would have to dig out the pipe and put the pipe in a large vise if you have one.  Or cut the pipe in the ground or out.  Not the easiest thing to do.

I used a neoprene rubber cap manufactured by Fernco Inc. with a trade name of Plumbquick.  It is a plumbing item that a plumbing supply or hardware store should have or be able to order.  Mine is 8" and I think they go to 10".  I did glue a PVC cap on the bottom.  The Fernco cap fits over the pipe and is tightened with a hose clamp.  The 8" has two clamps.  All you have to do is dig out enough to get a wrench on the hose clamp nut and dig down about three inches around the cap to keep the dirt from falling into the pipe and be able  to put a shovel under the cap to pry it up.  Any small pry bar would work.

I inspected mine recently after being buried since 2008 and it appeared to be very dry except for a small Ziploc bag with a few coins that had some moisture in the bag.  We even had a small flood that had covered the pipe with water while buried.

When they start the gun confiscation, your readers are going to be looking for a way to hide their guns.  They may want to put the cap on their prep list along with the pipe, PVC cap and glue.  Obviously the metal items would have to be protected and apparently plastic bags are not a good idea. - T.M.

James -
When my beloved pet decided to pass on in the middle of winter, my secretary showed me a neat trick for winter digging fro those of us who live north of the 40th Parallel. 
 
1. Go home for lunch. 
2. Get a bag of charcoal from the shed, lay it on the ground where you're planning to dig.
3. Cut it open on the side and douse briquettes with lighter fluid. 
4. Light.
5. Go back to work.
6. Come home to a patch of backyard that's thawed well below the frost line.  I was digging up steaming dirt from two feet down.
 
My pet is resting well four feet under ground in a hole that was dug relatively easily in December. - B.F.B.

Dear Jim,
I wanted to provide a technical article to explain to your readers why refineries have to shut down more often than they used to. There's a good reason for this, and its not greed.
 
A few years ago I went to welding school. I wanted a post-oil survival skill that would make me money and have real value. During the course of my education I learned how to weld stainless steel, and one of the key components of welding stainless is something called the Heat Affected Zone. It turns out that when welding stainless steel you can crystallize out a crucial element which is key in making stainless steel resistant to corrosion. This band of rust-able steel can be reduced in size, but not removed altogether. Agricultural tanks, for things like wine, get around this by adding a coating of stainless steel powder over this Heat Affected Zone and greatly improves its acid/corrosion resistance, but you can't really do that with refinery pipes.
 
Light Sweet Crude has low sulfur, so produces little sulfuric acid. Heavy Sour Crude, which we get from Mexico and Saudi Arabia these days, is so loaded with Sulfur that its a resellable byproduct that goes to fertilizer plants and industrial processes, since its good for that. Unfortunately, refining it out means that sulfuric acid rushes through the refinery pipes and attacks the heat affected zone, eating them away until there's a leak. We had a big leak of exactly that about a year ago in Richmond, California at a Chevron refinery, one that sickened hundreds of residents and shut down the refinery, causing a temporary fuel shortage and 50 cent/gal increase in fuel price until repairs were completed and production started again. It will happen again if maintenance isn't done promptly. There's really no escaping this problem so long as we use high sulfur oil and mostly all we've got anymore.
 
Someday we'll be growing algae in reactor vessels or inclined glass tubes and harvesting the biodiesel waste, then burning that in diesel engines for fuel. It will require us to have diesel engines, but Hayes has proven that common rail diesel motors can be miniaturized and reliable in their motorcycle, and Ford is bringing their 1.0 L 3-cylinder diesel to the USA from the EU, a clean burning and reliable powerplant which would work for either a hybrid or a very light weight vehicle and run on synthetic biodiesel. This has no sulphur so gets around the whole issue of SO2 emissions that current diesels have to face.
 
The alternatives to diesel are the following:
1. Ethanol fuel made with stills from various source materials. Engines must be designed to burn this to get full efficiency. Current engines are a hodgepodge of compromises. They will have to be modified to run best. We can import cheap ethanol from Brazil, but what can we pay for it with that they will accept?
2. Natural gas, which UPS has their delivery vans running on. Many countries run their vehicle fleets on this. The natural gas will run out, but it can be made from various sources, like manure, and provide secondary income to sewage plants and dairies.
3. Electric cars, which are limited by both battery materials and battery capacity. If you can live with a 20 mph golf cart, you might as well get one soon. Lithium powered cars are like the ransom money in "Way of the Gun": A motive. A new battery chemistry is needed, but does not yet exist.
4. Fischer–Tropsch process: coal converted to gasoline. Works till you have no more coal. And you have to mine the coal.  
In the short term the answer to high gasoline prices is minimize consumption with fewer and shorter trips using the most efficient vehicle you have, and carpooling when possible. Here in the Sierras, I see more and more Geo Metros at commute times and fewer 4WD SUVs and Trucks. People are adjusting to the Post (Cheap) Oil reality.
 
Links:
Heat-Affected Zone
Fischer–Tropsch synthesis 
Synthetic Fuel definition and history
Diesel Motorcycles
OPOC Diesel Engine

Note: I am unclear why this engine was not released on schedule two years ago. There are no published reports on reliability or maintenance, and none from users in the real world.

JWR,
I am a 14-year veteran of one of the "top 10 by size" police departments in the US. My whole career has been within this department so my perception of this issue is only that of a large urban city department.

I want to comment on your article "Plan B: Key Phrases to Memorize for Citizens' Reservation of Rights." In my earlier days I can unfortunately admit I probably may have been one of these officers that would try to find something to turn a civil violation traffic stop into a felony arrest. I will add though that I have never violated anyone's civil rights during my career. But I can see myself trying to find my way into someone's car that I believed was in violation of a greater crime than just the petty violation I stopped them for.

I have never attempted or detained any motorists for the length of time described in this article. I have seen officers do it and usually found ways to help the motorist out by redirecting my fellow officer, or some similar tactic.

I would like to add though that officers who conduct themselves in this manner are outside the norm. I will also add they almost  cannot be stopped once they get it set in their minds they are going to "find something".

Your comments on how to act around officers will work well with the majority of officers. But there will be a few who I can see that will not be deterred. I would say to those using this defense to also be prepared to have the officer become upset. Why some of them do I have no idea but they will.

If at all possible try to video or audio record the stop. Most smart phones have video recorders now. Using this might keep the officer on the right side of things if he sees you are recording him. This is more overt though and may be tough to do in all occasions. It is pretty easy to turn on an audio recording app though and stick your phone on the dashboard during the whole stop. Just make sure that such recording is not a crime in your state.

Another thing to think about in these situations is the officer may ask you to step out of the car. This will change the scenario up a bit. Not that I agree with it but per case law officers can order drivers and occupants out of the vehicle with nothing more than reasonable suspicion or "officer safety".

Don't feel afraid to file a complaint against them. We serve you! Many of us peace officers have forgotten this. I no longer write traffic citations to generate income. Dangerous driving and similar are the exceptions. 

I get a lot of strange looks from people when I thank them for carrying their CCW and open carried weapons and supporting the Constitution. But it is necessary!

I hope many more of my fellow peace officers will change and realize how badly they treat Citizens. I am glad I woke up and changed. - Jeff J.

 
Dear James:
Regarding what to do in response to being pulled over by the state or local Gestapo, err, I mean the police who then attempt a fishing expedition may I suggest a dash cam like the police have.  After watching Breakfast in Collinsville and Lodging in Collinsville in which the officer claimed the motorist violated the law by drifting over the white lane markers while the motorist stated it was the officer who had drifted over the lane markers while following the motorist I decided to take a page from Chairman Mao and get a personal dash camera.

My quest brought me to DHGate.com which is a clearinghouse of sorts for Chinese retailer/wholesalers to sell their products to the world market.  They withhold payment from the vendor until they receive the return post card showing the merchandise has been received.  I received my dash cam two weeks ago but the purchase still has not been posted to my credit card account. (Ebay is another option.)
 
After a little searching (use the phrase “Car DVR” in the search box) I jumped and purchased this dash cam that records not only the front view but with the remote camera records the rear view as well.  (I did jump too fast and overspent as I’ll explain.) 

After waiting two weeks the package arrived on a Saturday afternoon.  After a quick trip to the big box electronic store for a micro SD memory card I had a fully functional personal dash camera.  Now I feel the tables will be turned if I happen to be unfortunate enough to be seen as a possible milk cow by a law enforcement agency.
 
Consider the following exchange, after pulling over for the police:

Officer:  “The reason I pulled you over is because you crossed over the lane dividers several times while I happened to be behind you.”
Me:  “I crossed over the lane dividers???  Can I see your dash cam video officer so I can see for myself?
Officer:  “No, the dash cam only turns on when I activate my police lights.”
Me:  “Well officer, today’s your lucky day.  See that (pointing to my dash camera).  That is my dash cam.  It automatically starts recording three seconds after I start my car and has been recording since I left home this morning.  And see that wire, it leads to the rear camera that records motorists behind me.  Now if you give me a moment I’ll be happy to pull up the files and play them for you.  You will see that while I maintained my lane as you followed me it was you who crossed over the lane lines multiple times.  May I ask, are you under the influence of alcohol or some other drug, legal or illegal, that would cause you to drive so careless and reckless manner?”

That should end the conservation. 
 
Some notes on personal dash cams:
 
1.)  All units plug into you vehicle’s power outlet, powering up and down with the vehicle.  Some like mine comes with an extra power cord that can be wired directly into the vehicle's fuse box. 

2.)  Most need the user to buy a micro SD card (TF card).  The bigger the memory the more of your driving is recorded.  Be sure to buy the proper “class” of card.  Most require at least a “class 6” card or better.  If the wrong class of memory card is used expect skips and jumps on the recorded video files as the result.  I have a 16 GB class 10 card.  I figure it will record 4 plus hours of continuous driving.

3.)  With mine files are saved in either 1, 2, or 5 minutes blocks of time.  The user can select the file size.  When the memory card is full the oldest files are overwritten first.  Other units record can record up to 15 minute files. 

4.)  Depending on the unit video quality can be set by the user (1080, 720, 640 x 480, etc.).  I suggest using the lowest video quality setting since it allows for more recording time.

5.)  The video files can be replayed on the camera’s video screen or transferred to a computer and played through the computer’s video player.  

6.)  There are units that have 3-axis G-force sensors that will automatically save crash event files and protect the files from being overwritten (usually 10 seconds before and 20 seconds after the crash). And there are units that allow the user to hit a button to do the same thing (Such as when you are not involved in a crash but would like to save and protect an incident.)

7.)  There are units that have GPS receivers recording the GPS location as well as the video file (example).  These units come with their own computer program that merges all the data into one viewing program using internet available maps (Google Maps).

8.)  Most units record the vehicle’s interior sound.  So no more talking to yourself as you drive! 

9.)  Most units have an internal battery and can be powered up independent of the vehicle’s power.  I would suggest if possible after being pulled over and giving the officer your driver’s license, etc. unplug the unit and power up the dash cam using the internal battery so if the officer tells you to shut off the car the camera will continue to record. 

10.)  Units can be purchased for under twenty-five dollars to hundreds of dollars (example). But for under $60 dash cams can be purchased with front and rear view cameras and a GPS receiver.  (This will be my next purchase.)

11.)  My dash cam came with instructions written in Chinese-English and the printing was so small that I had to photo-copy the instructions several times enlarging the print-out each time so I could read it - and I have 20/20 vision.  But because of the language barriers I just tinkered with my dash cam figuring it out on my own. 

Finally, poke around first before diving into the dash cam pool as there are units that have a single camera, dual cameras, dual cameras with one being a remote camera, single units with GPS, dual cameras with GPS that are either internal or external (GPS can be unplugged but the cameras still operate), etc., all for under $100.

Thanks for the Blog, - Johnny Dash Cam

Jim:
That was a very good article by Chris C. to get people up to speed on EMP threats and mitigation, there is one very simple thing to add that was shared with me by a former military contractor who was involved in EMP work.   While it's possible to protect equipment in place with shielding, grounding and specialized electronic components, the most economical solution is to store spares.  This has the advantage of protecting (remember, "two is one") with backups from ANY type of equipment failure, EMP or otherwise.  This method uses readily obtainable and very economical materials.  There's really no excuse not to do this, as you'll be protected against a number of different possible problems.

Go through your your gear and determine what you need for spares.  Many, many things now have microelectronics inside.  Low startup power water pumps, tankless hot water heaters, refrigerators, LED light bulbs and flashlights, audio equipment, inverters, charge controllers, solar panel diodes, video cameras, network routers and switches, computers, cars and trucks etc. all have electronics that could be fried.  

According to my source, the best way to store electronic equipment is in it's original box, which provides an insulator from the outside via plastic, cardboard or foam.  Many electronic components come in static protecting bags, which will provide yet another layer of protection.  Double wrap the box with heavy duty aluminum foil, being careful to seal all seams with metal ducting tape in each layer.  The outside of this is then wrapped in plastic bubble wrap and placed inside a galvanized steel 32 gallon trash can.  

The inside of the trash can needs to have the same metal tape applied over the holes in the metal from the handles on the barrel and the lid and an insulating layer of cardboard should be fitted to the inside of the metal trash can.  This is to provide an insulator between the Faraday cage of the trash can and the electronics inside.  

Place all your wrapped electronics (double foil and bubble wrap) inside this trash can and seal the lid with more metal duct tape.  This provides two layers of security from the can and each component is also separately protected inside the can.   You can test this by placing an FM radio that is turned on, wrapping it in a box, layering the foil and bubble wrap, then placing it inside the metal trash can.  If you don't hear any radio signal after it's been wrapped and placed inside the metal trash can, you are good to go. - C.K.

James:
While I appreciate the thought that Chris C. and others put into discussions of EMP scenarios, Chris and others are all forgetting one fact that makes all of this an exercise in futility:  There are dozens of active nuclear reactors operating in the US.  Any EMP burst will travel along the high tension wires that are used to distribute their output and fry them.  It's not going to be the 1850s, it's going to be more like The Omega Man, with most of the population dead within weeks from radiation poisoning when the cores melt down and explode. Those who survive this initial die off will be left with a land that will not grow crops for millennia to come.  That's why I don't worry about EMP anymore: There's going to be nothing left. My family and I live in Butte, Montana astride the Great Divide. That puts us upwind of most of America's nuclear reactors.

If we do ever suffer an EMP, I hope that there won't be concurrent or subsequent radioactive fallout. The fallout from the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/reactor incident has really made me think hard about this.  If memory serves, there are 47 active reactors in the US, if they all overheat their cores [or spent fuel ponds] at once (or within the same week, say) I seriously fear for the population of the US and other countries. 

Wouldn't the Jet Stream eventually carry the fallout around the northern hemisphere and hit us here as well?  I read that it takes several months under controlled conditions to completely shut down a reactor [and disassemble its pile], and that if the fuel rods were exposed to air because the pumps stopped that it might take years for them to cool off and stop spewing radiation. If the grid collapsed due to an EMP, there would be no heroic efforts like we saw in January, with 47 reactors going critical and no communications or transport, Sir Isaac Newton is in the drivers seat. 

I don't want to sound defeatist, I have been following SurvivalBlog for several years, and am doing my best to prepare to keep my family alive in case of emergency.  I'm even working on a Bug-Out Bag article, which is what caused me to really start thinking about what I was prepping for.  The collapse of the grid like in your novel Patriots is obviously the biggie we all try to plan for, and if it goes down like that we all might have a chance to try the 1850s over again.  - Greg C. (A former USMC Captain.)

JWR Replies: These issues were described in detail in a SurvivalBlog article posted back in September, 2010. The only good news is that by the time that fallout clouds circle the globe, they will have already dropped most of their heavier components. In an absolute worst-case situation where all of the nuclear power plants and spent fuel ponds boil off and melt down, the worst-affected regions would be: the northeastern United States, Quebec, Iceland, and northern Europe. (Sorry about that!)

The southern hemisphere would obviously be safer, since there are relatively few nuke plants compared to the more industrialized northern hemisphere. Here in the United States, the least-affected regions would be the Pacific Northwest and the Inland Northwest (The American Redoubt.) I would not want to be living anywhere in the eastern United States!

Mr. Rawles,
We have had a couple telephone consults and I have found your knowledge to be of great use. I try to make your blog one of my first early morning reads here on the East Coast.
 
Chris C.'s article on EMP was extremely well thought out, comprehensive and full of accurate information. The only thing I take issue with is his statement regarding the reason we are a very likely target. Chris stated, "We now face an enemy who is difficult to put a face on, impossible to identify, and hates us for no other reason that the fact that we are a nation of free infidels."
 
I find this type of thinking to be all too prevalent in America today. I am in no way a Muslim apologist. I feel strongly that the Islamic community has done little to nothing to denounce terrorism, either through fear of retribution from fellow Muslims or tacit approval of the activities of their radical counterparts. Additionally, my late father was a United States Marine, I was a U.S. Navy Corpsman and my son is presently a Marine Lieutenant attending flight school in Pensacola, so I do not take what I am about to say lightly.
 
Chris C.'s way of thinking is short-sighted and flat out wrong. The vast majority of Muslims do not hate us for our "freedom". That is a false narrative that [the media] has been trying to create for decades. Just as any red-blooded American would be outraged at the presence of a foreign military on our soil, so do those inhabitants of Islamic countries who have had our military occupy and/or invade their lands. There is no denying that Saddam Hussein was an oppressive and evil tyrant and the world is a better place without his presence, but the same can be said about many dictators throughout the world, particularly on the African continent. The government of Afghanistan may or may not have known the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden, but did its people deserve invasion and continued occupation?
 
Let's use a fictitious example for a moment. An American citizen or group of citizens plots and successfully blows up the Eiffel Tower. Washington D.C., for whatever reason, states they don't know where the group is, or simply will not turn them over. Would YOU accept French planes bombing U.S. cities, breaking down doors in the middle of the night looking for suspected terrorists or knocking your car out of the way with an APC because they wanted to get through......or would YOU be planting IEDs alongside the road to blow up the French troops?
 
The hijackers on 9/11 were almost all Saudi's, as was OBL, yet they are our "allies". OBL was found and killed in Pakistan, yet they are our allies. Does anyone believe that OBL lived in Pakistan for years without the knowledge of elements high within the Pakistani government? Let us not be naive. America is a great country, but we serve our interests, as do all nations. That said, we must not be surprised when our actions result in hatred. Most Muslims knew nothing of the United States, but when we bomb their countries, kill thousands and call it "collateral damage", should we be surprised when that hatred is turned towards us?
 
We have involved ourselves in the politics of oppression throughout the world to serve our own national interests and must realize that the end result is hatred directed towards us. Yes, they resent the encroachment of "Western" corruption on their generations, but don't we resent many of the very same vices that they do: promiscuity, drugs, alcoholism, abortion. Christianity preaches against the same things. They hate us not because we are free, but because we wish them to "be like us". Forcing your ways upon the people of another land is not freedom, no matter how backwards we may perceive them.
 
Many of us resent the way our own government is trying to force us to comply with their beliefs. Anyone with the slightest bit of intellectual honesty will admit that our country is not the beacon of freedom it once was. That oppression they feel will soon be directed upon those who disagree with our present government. You basically wrote as much in your first novel, Patriots.
 
America has much to be proud of, its people are kind, generous and caring. Our government is not. If we need to know why they hate us, we need to look no further than those in Washington, D.C. Hatred of freedom? Please, let's not fall into that jingoistic trap of false patriotism. True freedom is when people are left alone to live their lives, safe with their families, to live their lives. It's not having Humvees racing down the street with guns pointed at your children. Let's at least have an honest discussion.
 
Otherwise, it was an outstanding piece. Thanks, - Ken B. on Long Island

Jim:
Chris C.'s essay on EMP has some false information and conclusions unjustified even by those falsehoods, and misleading advice. His essay rehashes some myths that have been circulating on the Internet for years in spite of the ready availability of reliable contradictory evidence. He tries to qualify his remarks by saying there is "debate" over situations where "no one is sure what will happen," but in truth we do know. It's just that the facts contradict his opinions.

He clearly wants to believe that "small transistor devices", airplanes, modern cars, laptops, and pacemakers are at high risk from EMP, but the facts show that they aren't. Of course, they shouldn't be. They simply aren't able to capture very much energy from EMP, and the features that protect these devices from electrostatic discharge (whether fingertip static on a cold day, or nearby lightning strikes during a storm) also serve to shunt EMP energy away from their critical systems. - P.N.G.

I've posted numerous articles and links in SurvivalBlog that emphasize the importance of remaining silent whenever you are contacted by law enforcement officers. I strongly recommend that before reading the rest of this post, you take the time watch this lecture: Don't Talk To The Police, and take it to heart.

I've heard from several readers who say that that they've been pulled over by police officers on "fishing expeditions". The officers refused to let the motorists go, even though it was obvious that no crime had been committed. These readers did everything right. They presented their identification and proof of insurance, and repeated: "On the advice of my attorney, I am exercising my right to remain silent and I do not consent to any search." This has to be repeated over and over.

The officers pressed on, with all their usual tricks, to try to get the motorists to agree to an unconstitutional search. Repeated queries were made, with the words: "Officer, am I free to go?" Finally, after more than an hour, a supervising officer would arrive on the scene, and the entire litany would then be repeated, for the umpteenth time. Then they were finally allowed to continue their travel. This is real fun in southern states when the outside temperature is 100 degrees F and the temperature inside your car is even higher.

So what if an officer persists? What if it goes on for more than an hour? At that point, depending on your patience or the volume of your bladder, it might be time for Plan B. Here is what I recommend:

1.) Keep your hands in view, preferably resting at the classic "10 and 2 o'clock" position on your steering wheel. To make the officer feel more at ease, leave your hands there throughout the encounter unless specifically ordered by the officer to move them for some specific reason.

2.) When the officer approaches your window--or the passenger's side window, depending on the situation--roll the window down a crack and slowly and without and sudden movements hand him your driver's license, registration, and proof of insurance. If you are a CCW permit holder, then also hand him your CCW permit at the same time as the other paperwork, and tell the officer: "I am obliged to tell you that I am a concealed carry permit holder and that in accordance with the concealed carry law of ______ (state) I am carrying a ________ pistol/revolver/whatever, located ___________."

3.) If a traffic citation is issued, read it and then ask: "Am I free to go?" If you are told "Yes" then go. Don't stick around for any debates, lectures, or pleasantries.

4.) If the officer asks you any questions, say: "On the advice of my attorney, I am exercising my right to remain silent and I do not consent to any search. Am I free to go?"

5.) If the officer start playing fishing expedition games to try to trick you into consenting to a search, simply repeat: "On the advice of my attorney, I am exercising my right to remain silent and I do not consent to any search. Am I free to go?"

6.) Repeat this as many times as necessary.

7.) If this goes on for more than 20 minutes, then add the phrase: "You seem to be unreasonably delaying my freedom to travel. Please contact your supervising officer. Will you please do so?"

8.) If, after an hour you still cannot get permission to proceed, I recommend that you ask: "Officer, may I contact my attorney?" If permission is refused, of if you do not have a cell phone with you or you are not in a cell phone coverage area, then you will be in a bit of jam. Then, and only then, I recommend that you politely elevate the encounter with another series of questions:

A.) Ask: "Officer, please explain why you are arresting or detaining me?" He will probably answer: "You are not under arrest."

B.) Then ask: "So, am I free to go?"

C.) If the answer is still no, then ask: "Officer, I need to ask you: Are you familiar with the legal standards of Probable Cause, Reasonable Suspicion, and Plain View?" He will probably answer: "Yes I am" or perhaps: "What, are you some kind of an attorney?"

D.) Then ask: "Do you have Probable Cause to believe that I have committed or am about to commit a criminal offense?"

E.) If the answer is no, then ask: "Am I free to go?" If the answer is no, then ask: Then ask: "Do you have Reasonable Suspicion to believe that I have committed or am about to commit a criminal offense?"

F.) If the answer is no, then ask: "Am I free to go?"If the answer is no, then ask: "Is there anything that you see on my vehicle in your Plain View that would lead you to believe that I have committed or am about to commit a criminal offense?"

G.) If the answer is no, then ask: "Am I free to go?" If the answer is no, then ask: "Is there some new legal doctrine or standard that I am not aware of that would give you cause to detain me? Please explain."

H.) If the officer gets obstinate and orders you out of your car, and declares that he (or they) are going to conduct a search or you witness them initiating a search, or they tell you to wait while a K-9 unit is being be summoned, you should ask: "Officer: Are you familiar with the Fruit of the Poisonous Tree legal precept? I must warn you that this is an nonconsensual and unconstitutional search and that anything that you might find will not be admissible as evidence. I must insist that you cease this search. By continuing, you are opening yourself up to litigation and I will not hesitate to sue both you personally, and your Department. Because you are proceeding with a clearly unconstitutional search you will not benefit from any immunity. "

Memorize these phrases, and their sequence. Beyond them, I don't know what else I can recommend.

Note that almost everything that I have recommended that you say should be IN THE FORM OF A QUESTION. This keeps the officer on the defensive at all times.

May God Bless you, in your travels. Be safe out there! - JWR

Those of us who frequent this web site, the prepper community, prepare for a host of potential crises that may befall our nation.  Some are more likely than others, but most share a common background when it comes to being prepared for them.  The event of an EMP strike, however, requires some very specific knowledge and safeguards.  This is a serious enough issue that a study was commissioned by congress several years ago, which found that the threat was real and that we were woefully unprepared. This essay will provide a brief description of the event itself with some supporting history, discuss the likelihood of such an event occurring, and finally go over the potential impact of an EMP strike with recommendations for preparations.
What is an EMP?

EMP stands for Electro Magnetic Pulse, a powerful burst of electromagnetic radiation that interacts with the Earth’s atmosphere and creates a wave of electrons that travel outward at the speed of light.  This “pulse” lasts only milliseconds, but the magnetic field that it produces creates a powerful electric current in conductive material through the Faraday principle.  There are actually three components to an EMP, but only the first, called the E1 wave, is considered a threat.  (The E2 mimics disruption by lightning and is comparatively easy to shield against, and the E3 phase is similar to a solar flare but would typically not reach the ground in a high altitude burst.)

This type of energy occurs naturally in the form of solar flares, but can also be man-made in the form of a nuclear burst.  While a solar event is possible, and strong examples have occurred in the past, it is typically much weaker than a weapon-based pulse, which will be the focus of this article.  EMP energy travels in line-of-sight, so ground bursts actually have much more localized effects.  The most damaging type of strike for EMP production occurs at altitudes of 40-400km above the surface of the Earth, where line of sight extends for thousands of square miles.  At altitudes such as these there is no blast damage, fallout, or even dangerous radiation.  Certainly these are the immediate and disastrous effects of a detonation near the ground, along with the now universally known mushroom cloud.  Why, then, with this kind of damage potential, would someone choose to exploit the EMP effects of a nuclear blast rather than the direct destruction?  Read on…

EMP- The early years:
EMP was discovered by accident to be the byproduct of a nuclear explosion.  In early tests, recording instruments located miles from the blast were destroyed by energy that traveled through cables and power lines, and in some significant early tests there was a demonstrable “practical application” component for EMP production and use.  Many people are familiar with the two historical examples of nuclear tests that resulted in measurable damage from an EMP.  The first is the 1962 American hydrogen bomb known as Starfish Prime, detonated 400km above the Pacific Ocean, and estimated at 1.4 megatons in yield.  The effects of the EMP component couldn’t be accurately measured since many of the instruments maxed out their readings, but the effects were felt 900 miles away in Hawaii.  300 streetlights were knocked out along with the phone exchange and many alarm systems.  It also crippled 1/3 of the satellites then in orbit, including some early communications models.  If this doesn’t sound severe, remember several key things about this test:

• It was intentionally detonated over the ocean far away from any landmass
• The Earth’s magnetic field at that location actually minimized the effects because it was located far from the poles
• The electronics of the 1960s were very simple and robust compared to the circuit boards and microprocessors used today.  Cars were not fuel injected, there were virtually no computers, satellite communication was extremely limited, most electronics were vacuum tube based, and cell towers were non-existent.

The second test of note was a Soviet air burst in a series known as test 184.  It was “only” a 300 kiloton burst, but it took place over sparsely populated Kazakhstan.  The EMP from this blast caused a massive voltage surge in an underground power line, started a fire in the power station and burned up several generators that were not even connected to the grid.  (Presumably due to the lengthy copper winding present in generators that would mimic a long power cable as far as current induction.)

Bear in mind that neither of these tests were tailored to generate EMP, and note the difference in the size of the warheads.  As further research revealed, the size of the yield is not proportional to the EMP energy released.  Smaller warheads are in some cases more lethal in this regard than the big ones, and weapons have since been engineered to maximize EMP production.

So, what’s the point?
The intent of the history above is to demonstrate that the EMP generated by a nuclear device is not just theory, and that it acts as a force multiplier.  During the cold war we had thousands of nukes designed to literally destroy an enemy’s ability to wage war.  If they had been employed, we could have leveled nations and left nothing but a smoking ruin.  Now, with the SALT treaties and efforts to limit nuclear proliferation, only a select few nations have nuclear weapons and with few exceptions, none have more than a handful.  Compared to the still-impressive might of the American nuclear arsenal, small players such as North Korea, Iran, or even well funded terrorist cells might only be able build, buy or steal a small number of weapons.  Two or three would probably be the most they could field.  (Make no mistake, there are weapons available; by most accounts there are over 100 missing Soviet weapons, many of them the small “suitcase” variety of tactical nukes.)  With ground bursts they could clearly decimate our largest cities, kill hundreds of thousands and cause trillions of dollars in damage.  But, if they were to employ even small nuclear weapons in a high altitude burst, three bombs could literally cover most of North America with an EMP burst.  With a design intent similar to the neutron bomb, there would be little to no physical damage done by the actual nuclear blast.  In fact, from a high enough altitude there wouldn’t even be a sound, just a bright flash if you happened to be looking in the right direction.  The damage they are capable of makes ground burst weapons and dirty bombs seem like an almost welcome alternative.

Okay, it sounds bad, but it’s not like this would ever happen…
The reality is that during the cold war, no one fired off a weapon because it would have been immediately apparent who was responsible (through missile launch tracking), and the retribution that America and her allies would have delivered was too awful to consider.  We knew who the bad guys were, but more importantly they knew that we knew and it kept everyone honest.  Even if they had destroyed Washington and all of our land based missiles, we would have had enough warning to alert our airborne SAC bombers and the Navy’s ballistic missile subs, which would have delivered more than enough counterstrike to make the whole thing an exercise in futility.  The old policy of mutually assured destruction really did have merit and it kept an uneasy peace, but the world today is completely different.  We now face an enemy who is difficult to put a face on, impossible to identify, and hates us for no other reason that the fact that we are a nation of free infidels.  Muslim terrorists are unlike anyone else we have fought, and our nuclear deterrent is from their point of view no deterrent at all:

• They have demonstrated the desire and ability to kill Americans and cripple our country whenever and wherever possible.  Two attacks at the World Trade Center, embassy bombings, The USS Cole attack, and countless smaller events prove that they have the will and can execute complex and lengthy planning.
• Muslim terrorists have no compunction about dying in the process of the attack; in fact that is their ultimate goal.
• Those that subscribe to Sharia law believe that it is their duty to convert or kill non-believers
• Terror groups have now linked with other countries to expand their capabilities and global reach, and we have no shortage of detractors around the world.  There is evidence of communication between Islamic terrorists and Mexican cartels, as well as between Iran and North Korea.

It goes without saying that most of the world’s Muslims have no interest in this, but those that do are sometimes well funded through oil-rich state sponsors.  As mentioned above, there are many unaccounted for weapons from the old Soviet Bloc.  Several countries were left with nuclear weapons when the Bloc broke up, including Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine.  Many of them are poorly inventoried and protected, meaning that if they were stolen there is some doubt that the theft would even be noticed or reported.  There is also a strong possibility that they could be sold by cash-poor nations or even individuals to unscrupulous customers.  State run nuclear programs are also not above suspicion;  China, Pakistan and North Korea all have weapons that could find their way into the wrong hands.  In the event of a ground burst detonation, it would take some time to analyze the residue and try to determine the origin of the bomb.  In the event of an air burst EMP strike we may never be able to determine who was responsible.  As we will shortly see, this type of attack has far-reaching consequences that would be far more disastrous than even a detonation in one of our largest cities. 

The delivery method of such an attack is not nearly as complicated as you might think.  Ballistic missiles are expensive, complex and highly technical, as is evidenced by the failures of North Korea to build and launch one in the past few years. The delivery system for an EMP strike does not need to be nearly so precise.  In fact, it might be the simplest part of the entire thing; certainly much less so that building or acquiring a nuclear weapon.  As we will see when we begin discussing the effects of the pulse, the EMP is not a surgical strike.  In fact, it could conceivably be hundreds of miles off course when detonated and still cause massive levels of damage.  If multiple weapons were used to provide overlap, accuracy becomes even less important.  Here are some of the potential methods for lofting a weapon to the appropriate altitude for a successful strike.  For maximum results a high altitude of 40-400km is ideal, but even a burst at lower altitude will cause damage for hundreds of square miles.  If an attack were to include the Eastern seaboard of the US, or the Pacific coast, tens of millions of people would be affected.

• High altitude balloon
• Jet aircraft; i.e. a chartered business jet
• Medium range missile launched from a ship
• Low satellite orbit

If the methods above seem a little odd, remember that we are dealing with a “simple” nuclear device.  It does not require a complex targeting system, a military aircraft, or any type of specialized delivery system.  Iranian Shahab-3 missiles, purchased from North Korea, and others in development might be candidates.  Also, North Korea just last month put their first satellite into space and Iran has similar ambitions.  While these two options are reserved for nations with substantial funding, balloon delivery and chartered jet are within the range of virtually any group.  This may seem farfetched, but the weapons and the delivery systems already exist, and there are plenty of groups who would be happy to employ them.  This is not science fiction, and is well within the realm of possibility.
So what happens when it goes off?
The impact of an EMP strike on modern society is open to a great deal of conjecture.  The last tests, mentioned previously, were in 1962 and the technology of today is vastly different.  Broken down simply, an EMP has the potential to affect the following:

• Electrical power generation
• Communication
• Transportation
• Microprocessors

There are many subsets of the four categories above, which will be examined below, and it is important to remember that they are all interrelated.  For example:  Your power has gone down due to an EMP strike and you need replacement parts to get it up and running.  The problem is that you need power to manufacture replacement components, a method for conveying what exactly you need, and the transportation to bring the components to your plant.  As a more local example, with no communication you can’t call and report a fire, the water pressure at the hydrant isn’t maintained because the pumping station has no power, and the fire trucks may not be functional anyway.  A blow to any of the four will adversely affect the other two. 

The E1 component of an EMP is a powerful magnetic wave, and it creates a massive voltage spike in metal components.  The energy is measured in volts per foot, so longer the metal, the more power is generated.  This means that long high-tension transmission lines could generate huge amounts of power, which would blow transformers and cause severe damage to power generation plants.  Let’s break down each of the above three broad categories and see how they would impact life in these United States.

Power generation:
Right now when the power goes out it’s annoying, and we sit and fume for the few hours it takes to replace a downed line or transformer knowing that American Idol is coming on.  An EMP has the potential to knock out virtually all of the power plants and transformers within line of sight from the blast.  (Remember, from an altitude of 40-400km, or up to 250 miles, “line of sight” only ends at the curvature of the earth.  An airliner only flied at 6-7 miles high, so imagine the vast area that line of sight covers from that vantage point).  There is evidence to suggest that the E1 pulse, which travels at or near the speed of light, would not be stopped by most surge protectors, meaning that much of the standard lighting protection equipment would offer no shielding.  Imagine the casualties in the immediate aftermath.  Hospital life support systems would shut down; even those with underground generators that might avoid destruction only have a fuel supply sufficient for a few days.  During the colder months people may freeze to death without heat in as little as a few days.  Food rapidly spoils.  Gas stations can’t pump gas even if the vehicles are operational.  All of the automatic monitoring and management of utilities, gas and oil pipelines, infrastructure down to the traffic lights.  Telephone exchanges and standard radios are useless, as is anything that you plug into a wall.  What could be worse than having all the power out in an instant… and not being able to find out what happened.  No internet, no cell service, no phones.  The water treatment plant is shut down and your toilets may back up.  Depending on where you live, you may immediately lose water pressure when the pumps go down.  As mentioned, there is no firefighting capability and fires which would have been easily contained now rage out of control.  Instead of one townhouse with a small fire, the entire row burns to the ground, or the entire apartment building, high-rise, etc. 

Communication:
Many of us don’t appreciate our modern communication network, which is heavily satellite based.  While an EMP wouldn’t take out satellites beyond the curvature of the Earth, those within line of sight are at risk.  Also knocked down would be cell towers, relay stations, computers and servers, etc.  There is some debate over whether or not small transistor devices such as two way radios would survive, but even they would provide a very limited range for communication.  Some military hardware is hardened against EMP, but only a small percentage of it.  With no comm systems intact you cannot call for help, check on your family, organize relief efforts, or even find out how extensive the damage is.  The pony express may make a sudden resurgence in popularity.  Satellite damage will also preclude the use of GPS systems and national defense, and with the damage to the power grid and transportation systems it will not be easily repaired.

Transportation:
The effect of an EMP on our national transportation system is up for some debate; it could range from severe impact to negligible damage and there is no easy way to test the theories.  Since this is a forum for preparedness and survival, we will examine a worst case scenario.  Aircraft are one of the biggest unknowns in an EMP; they are designed to absorb lightning damage but as mentioned above, the E1 pulse is faster than lightning and may “leap over” the standard safeguards.  If this is the case, then aircraft would literally fall from the sky.  Modern jets do not glide well at all, and most require computers for operation.  The loss of life would be heavy, not just from passengers being killed but from the aircraft on approach and departure crashing in populated areas and the fires that would result.  Remember the comment above about lack of firefighting ability?  Even a single airliner going down could burn massive areas of a city.  Trains would likely cease to function as well, since most of the controls are computerized and in some cases they are powered by electricity from an external source.  Trains carrying hazardous waste that are unable to stop in time or divert to side tracks could be catastrophic. Cars and trucks are the biggest question mark in this equation.  While most cars produced since the late 1980’s are computer controlled, the electronics are fairly robust.  It is possible that they may experience a brief problem or not function as well, but many may keep driving even if in a limited capacity.  Older models and carbureted vehicles would probably fare much better.  Generally the simpler the ignition system, the less likely the vehicle would be incapacitated by an EMP.  Many motorcycles, ATVs, riding mowers, etc would likely continue to function.  The good news is that even in modern cars the computers are simple and may retain some functionality.  Vehicles parked underground in concrete parking structures may be shielded from a pulse and continue to function.  In the final section, we will mention a few steps that might keep your car running.

Microprocessors:
Virtually everything electronic today has some form of microprocessor control.  Obviously if the power is down then this is a moot point, but what about the large number of battery powered devices that rely on these controls?  The short answer is that no one is sure what will happen.  Think for a moment about the devices that you may be relying on as part of your preparations that could cease to function:

• LED lights
• Electronic optics (EO Tech and Aimpoint are most common)
• Two-way radios
• Small battery powered radios
• Portable computers (Meaning that documents saved might not be accessible even on the hard drive.)
• Home standby generators with automatic controls
• Some medical devices such a pacemakers

So what are we supposed to do?
With all of the above in mind, how do you prepare for an event that creates an EMP?  There is not much that you can do to preserve the integrity of your local power grid and communications systems, but you can prepare some obvious backups.  The problem then is how do you shield your power supply, communications, transportation and microprocessors from the pulse when it happens?  What are the first steps you should take to stay ahead of the curve and secure your family?  We will break down your areas of concentration into several categories and dig a little deeper into each one.  The good news, if there is any, is that an EMP is an instant event and you don’t have to worry about overreacting or convincing your family that there is a problem.  In fact, you will have several critical hours, (maybe even days), where the rest of the neighborhood/town/city is trying to figure out what the hell just happened.  (That said, there may be a small benefit to waiting for a brief time before repairing things.  Earlier we talked about the potential for several weapons to be employed and an overlap of affected areas; if another weapon is detonated 15 minutes after the first and you have just fixed your car or taken your secured items out, it will require another fix or potentially ruin your sensitive items.)  Remember, there are no phones, no TV, no internet and most of the population in classic fashion will be sitting on the front porch cursing at the government and wondering when someone is going to come out and fix this for them.  In this case more than most, forewarned is forearmed, and reacting just a little quicker than the population at large can make the difference between life and death.  The primary focuses are going to be the same that we talked above previously; power, communication, transportation, and some concern for microprocessors, with the addition of these:

• Water
• Food
• Security
• Heat

Let’s go through the list and see what we can do to mitigate the effects of an EMP event both before and immediately afterward.

Transportation:
If you have a bike, you have EMP proof transportation.  Unfortunately you won’t have an advantage over everyone else with a bike.  If you have access to a motorcycle, ATV, or older carbureted truck, it will probably keep on running or at the most require a new ignition box.  If you have a new vehicle, try the following before abandoning it:  First, examine the fuse box and replace any that may have been blown.  (It is not a bad idea anyway to carry extra fuses and relays with you.  For EMP protection, wrap them in a paper towel and then in foil.)  Before you replace them, disconnect the power cable from the battery and leave it off while you work with the fuses.  Most automotive computers have a “reset” function where removing the power supply for a few minutes will cause a re-boot when you energize it again.  If the computer or key sensors have been destroyed by the pulse this will not help, but most systems are also designed with the ability to operate to a limited degree without full capability.  This is why bad sensors may cause a dash light to illuminate, gas mileage to decline or the emissions test to fail but won’t actually cause the car to stop running.  Once the fuses and relays have been replaced connect the battery and try to start the vehicle.  If it runs, great!  If not, grab your GHOB and anything useful in the vehicle and start walking home.  As a side note, security will rapidly become a problem so if it is legal for your to carry a weapon in your car, this is a compelling reason to do so.  It may be a long walk home.

Water:
This is the time to fill all of the bathtubs and every other container that you own with water.  The generators at the pumping stations and treatment plant may or may not work; you may only get whatever water is currently in the pipes and can be drained by gravity.  Don’t trust the quality of it either, treat and filter like you would water from any suspect source.  For filtration, a gravity-fed unit like a Berkey is preferable to something requiring a lot of manual labor or electricity.  Make sure you have this prior to the event, since you won’t be placing any online orders for the time being.  Take your water very seriously; simple infections can be deadly with no medical care, and many people will drink from the faucet out of habit not realizing that the treatment plant many not be functioning.

Food:
We all know that grocery stores only have a few days supply of food on the shelves, so with the power out and transportation crippled it won’t last long.  If you are prepared, you can capitalize on the slow reaction of the rest of the population to fill in any gaps in your supplies.  Take whatever transportation you have and get to the grocery store, now.  I’m talking about minutes after it happens.  Bring your credit cards and cash, and if possible go to a smaller store rather than a big chain.  Even though the power is out, smaller stores often still have manual credit card devices that create an imprint of the card.  I am not suggesting that you defraud anyone, and when the power comes back on (eventually) you will absolutely be responsible for any charges.  It certainly beats the hell out of starving to death though, so stock up on canned goods, bottled water, first aid supplies and non-perishables.  If the store doesn’t have a manual credit card machine use whatever cash you have on hand, but you probably won’t be bartering with gold and silver at this point.  No one will be all that worried at first and assume it is just a large power outage, so when you try to pay in old dimes don’t expect them to go for it.  Go to as many stores as possible and stock up; with manual machines in use you won’t hit any credit limit.  Crank up your old Jeep, find a trailer, and go shopping before the barbarian hordes arrive.  When you get home, use up all of your refrigerated items quickly.  Cook your refrigerated meat over charcoal to save your propane for heating and boiling water later.  Thaw your frozen meat and salt and dry it, and plant your garden now.  Don’t wait; your supplies won’t last forever.  If you live in an area with game and fish, start shooting deer and spend time fishing, preserving the meat by drying and salting.  Once reality sets in, there won’t be a deer to be found.

Microprocessors:
Virtually everything now is controlled by some sort of circuit board or microprocessor, which may be at some risk from EMP damage.  Protecting them is easy; it just requires some forethought on your part.  The best way is to place them in a Faraday cage, which channels the electric current around a metal enclosure and shields whatever is inside as long as it is not touching the metal.  The best example is a microwave oven.  It is designed to contain radio waves, and you can usually see the metal mesh in the door.  A gun safe also works, as long as there is no metal contacting the objects inside.  Any metal enclosure will work, even mesh as long as the holes are small.  You can build them yourself use existing metal cabinets, etc.  Store anything in it that you want to survive an EMP pulse.  Medical monitors, LED flashlights and weapon lights, holographic and laser sights, two way radios, small AM/FM radios, etc.  Remember that GPS will be useless if satellites are down and so will cell phones since the towers will be knocked out.  If you have a laptop with critical documents on it try to keep printed copies on hand since you probably won’t be able to access them later.  (You might even consider printing out articles like this from this web site and keeping them in a binder, along with your food storage details and supply lists.)  A steel storage building may also provide some protection, so if your ATV, old car, generator, etc are inside they may fare well and not require any repair.  Home standby generators are generally located inside a steel enclosure, but are connected through a transfer switch to the home; there is no clear evidence one way or the other to suggest whether or not they would survive a strike.

Security:
It is safe to assume that the days following an EMP strike will be filled with examples of society at its worst.  People on life support or even those that use pacemakers will be first wave of the dead, along with those killed in fires and accidents.  A progression of disease, injury, starvation, dehydration and predation will kill many more.  It will begin with simple looting, robbery and rape as criminals realize that no one can call for help and the police are overwhelmed and can’t respond.  As the days pass and they realize that there is no food, expect gangs to form and scour the area for resources.  Expect authorities to attempt to confiscate fuel, weapons, and food; resist if possible and with deadly force if needed.  Prescription medication will be unavailable, painkillers will be stolen almost immediately and refrigerated drugs like insulin will spoil.  Suicides will increase exponentially as will violence as hundreds of thousands on anti-depressants and anti-psychotics run out of their meds.  Prisons will likely be emptied of all but the worst offenders since the guards will leave and food will quickly run out.  Lack of basic necessities makes for desperate people, and desperate people are capable of anything.  It will start in the cities, where there are not enough resources to support even a fraction of the population once the transportation system is crippled.  High rise buildings with no power cannot pump water to the upper floors, creating an immediate crisis.  From the inner cities it will spread, as the inhabitants flee looking for resources.  They will swarm over the suburbs and into the rural areas, mistakenly believing that they can “live off of the land” or that the countries rural areas have food to spare.  Many people have no appreciation for the process by which food gets to the table, and the fact is that without modern irrigation, fertilization and harvesting only a small percentage of the grain and livestock will actually be turned into food.

A bug-out shelter in Wyoming is a great idea, but not if you can’t get there, so the odds are that you will have to secure your home.  This is not the place to discuss the ideal types of weapons to use.  What is more important is that you are armed, stocked with plenty of ammunition and spare parts, and most importantly have the training and will to use what you have.  If you have stockpiled food, have a generator running, and are driving a functional vehicle, you will certainly be a target.  Your best defense is to look innocuous; keep to yourself, don’t flaunt what you have, and if possible try to surround yourself with like-minded people so that you can support each other.  Run your generator only at limited intervals and try to muffle the exhaust as much as possible.  There are plenty of resources on fortifying your home; do your research now.  Even plywood sheets over the windows can provide a degree of protection and on most houses can be cut ahead of time and kept on hand to prevent storm damage anyway.  To survive an EMP you will need to have a one year plan as a minimum, and you really can’t have enough food, fuel and medical supplies.  Remember that you will attract friends and family in the area, and take on additional dependents at your own peril.  The food that will feed your family of four for a year will feed eight for six months and twelve for only four months. 

This is just theory, but no one can deny that the possibility exists for an EMP strike and that it is in fact more likely that many other types of disasters.  They key to surviving will be to plan ahead, rapidly identify it when it happens, and then work the plan.  Remember, there is a North Korean satellite in orbit right now and the Iranians have recently practiced launching ballistic missiles from ships.  It may not be as far-fetched as you think.

Dear Mr. Rawles,
 I have read Patriots and am working on (from the library) your three other books.  I have a great group I am connected with and all are reading your material.  Also, I have the book Strategic Relocation--North American Guide to Safe Places by Joel and Andrew Skousen.  I really appreciate all your advice and tips and have been working as best I can to prepare.  My question revolves around how crucial you think it would be for  me to pay off as much debt as possible before the coming collapse or whatever comes? 
 
I am struggling with balancing paying a credit card debt and mortgage while keeping my decent paying job, but this and some other bills that can't go away quickly enough (student loans for example) are in the way of me doing other things to prepare.  I don't expect you to have the "magic answer" but was wondering your opinion of how important paying debt is as opposed to preparing?  I don't mean getting a loan to prep or a new credit card, but is paying off a mortgage or a VISA card really that important WTSHTF? 
 
I ask this as one who has always paid my bills and am never late.  I did, however, charge some food and prepping supplies as I felt I was behind on that.
I am open to brutal honesty of course.  If you have time I would appreciate your input.
 
Thank you very much. Your brother in Christ, - Gregg in Central Washington

JWR Replies: We are possibly facing several more years of deflation before mass inflation kicks in.  Deflation makes consumer debt devastating in the event of a layoff or a substantial pay cut.

I highly recommend Dave Ramsey's books.  He has many proven solutions to personal indebtedness.

Don't hesitate to team up with neighbors, relatives and like-minded friends. By picking specialties, pooling some resources and doing "group buys" you can get your key preparations squared away much less expensively.

This is a standing invitation to my fellow Americans: If congress ever enacts a law mandating the registration and/or a production ban of detachable magazine semiautomatic rifles then you are hereby invited to the town square of your local community. There, burn barrels will be set up and we will publicly burn Form 4473s, FFL Bound Books, state and local registration records, and the sales receipts for every firearm in the United States. On that same day, FFL holders and public officials holding electronic firearms records will simultaneously erase those records, permanently and irretrievably. (Using special file erasure software such as Blancco, X-Ways, and Stellar Wipe, or though the physical destruction of disk drives.)

Spontaneous Gatherings, Spontaneous Combustion

This burn barrel day--likely to be held the day after the President signs any new draconian legislation--will include speeches, public prayers, and the blessing of those who have gathered by ministers, rabbis, and priests.

The core of the activities on that day will be stalwart public defiance of any new unconstitutional law(s), the open and notorious destruction of records that might be used to enslave us, and vocal public affirmations of solidarity of free men and women, in the face of tyranny. This will be a defining moment for America--a line drawn in the sand. We will forthrightly declare that we will not obey any unconstitutional law and that we will treat it dismissively, as if it had never been enacted -- nunc pro tunc. We will pledge ourselves to the defense of liberty, both individually and collectively. We will vow that if ever called to jury duty, we will nullify any unconstitutional laws, vacating the charges against the accused, in accordance with our long-standing right as jurors. (See: www.FIJA.org.)

The Law is On Our Side

We will publicly re-affirm some long standing precepts of American jurisprudence, to wit:

§ 195 Generally

The general rule is that an unconstitutional statute, whether federal or state, though having the form and name of law, is in reality no law(1) but is wholly void(2) and ineffective for any purpose.(3) Since unconstitutionality dates from the time of its enactment and not merely from the date of the decision so branding it,(4) an unconstitutional law, in legal contemplation, is as inoperative as if it had never been passed(5) and never existed;(6) that is, it is void ab initio.(7) Such a statute leaves the question that it purports to settle just as it would be had the statute not been enacted.(8)
 
Since an unconstitutional law is void, it follows that generally the statute imposes no duties,(9) confers no rights,(10) creates no office(11) or liabilities,(12) bestows no power or authority on anyone,(13) affords no protection,(14) is incapable of creating any rights or obligations,(15) does not allow for the granting of any relief,(16) and justifies no acts performed under it.(17)
 
Once a statute is determined to be unconstitutional, no private citizen or division of the state may take any further action pursuant to its provisions.(18) A contract that rests on an unconstitutional statute creates no obligation to be impaired by subsequent legislation.(19) No one is bound to obey an unconstitutional law,(20) and no courts are bound to enforce it.(21) A law contrary to the United States Constitution may not be enforced.(22) Once a statute has been declared unconstitutional, courts thereafter have no jurisdiction over alleged violations.(23) Persons convicted and fined under a statute subsequently held unconstitutional may recover the fines paid.(24)

FOOTNOTES:

1 Commissioners of Roads and Revenues of Fulton County v. Davis, 213 Ga. 792, 102 S.E.2d 180 (1958); State v. Village of Garden City, 74 Idaho 513, 265 P.2d 328 (1953); McGuire v. C & L Restaurant Inc., 346 N.W.2d 605 (Minn. 1984); People v. Corley, 91 Misc. 2d 255, 397 N.Y.S.2d 875 (City Crim. Ct. 1977).

2 Lewis v. Uselton, 224 Ga. App. 428, 480 S.E.2d 856 (1997); State ex rel. Stenberg v. Murphy, 247 Neb. 358, 527 N.W.2d 185 (1995); State v. Clark, 367 N.W.2d 168 (N.D. 1985); St. Paul Fire & Marine Ins. Co. v. Getty Oil Co., 1989 OK 139, 782 P.2d 915 (Okla. 1989); Weegar v. Bakeberg, 527 N.W.2d 676 (S.D. 1995); Almond v. Day, 197 Va. 419, 89 S.E.2d 851 (1955).

3State v. One Oldsmobile Two-Door Sedan, Model 1946, 227 Minn. 280, 35 N.W.2d 525 (1948); Grieb v. Department of Liquor Control of State, 153 Ohio St. 77, 41 Ohio Op. 148, 90 N.E.2d 691 (1950); Hunter v. School Dist. of Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau, 97 Wis. 2d 435, 293 N.W.2d 515 (1980).

4 Shirley v. Getty Oil Co., 367 So. 2d 1388 (Ala. 1979); Oliver v. State, 619 So. 2d 384 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 1st Dist. 1993); Lewis v. Uselton, 224 Ga. App. 428, 480 S.E.2d 856 (1997); Trout v. State, 231 S.W.3d 140 (Mo. 2007); State ex rel. Stenberg v. Murphy, 247 Neb. 358, 527 N.W.2d 185 (1995); Texas Dept. of Family and Protective Services v. Dickensheets, 274 S.W.3d 150 (Tex. App. Houston 1st Dist. 2008).

5 Huffman v. Dawkins, 273 Ark. 520, 622 S.W.2d 159 (1981); Commissioners of Roads and Revenues of Fulton County v. Davis, 213 Ga. 792, 102 S.E.2d 180 (1958); Briggs v. Campbell, Wyant & Cannon Foundry Co., Division Textron Am. Inc., 2 Mich. App. 204, 139 N.W.2d 336 (1966), judgment aff'd, 379 Mich. 160, 150 N.W.2d 752 (1967); McGuire v. C & L Restaurant Inc., 346 N.W.2d 605 (Minn. 1984); State ex rel. Stenberg v. Murphy, 247 Neb. 358, 527 N.W.2d 185 (1995); State v. Clark, 367 N.W.2d 168 (N.D. 1985); St. Paul Fire & Marine Ins. Co. v. Getty Oil Co., 1989 OK 139, 782 P.2d 915 (Okla. 1989); Glen-Gery Corp. v. Zoning Hearing Bd. of Dover Tp., 589 Pa. 135, 907 A.2d 1033 (2006); Franks v. State, 772 S.W.2d 428 (Tenn. 1989); School Districts' Alliance for Adequate Funding of Special Educ. v. State, 149 Wash. App. 241, 202 P.3d 990, 242 Ed. Law Rep. 383 (Div. 2 2009); City of Fairmont v. Pitrolo Pontiac-Cadillac Co., 172 W. Va. 505, 308 S.E.2d 527 (1983).

6 Thomas v. North Carolina Dept. of Human Resources, 124 N.C. App. 698, 478 S.E.2d 816 (1996), aff'd, 346 N.C. 268, 485 S.E.2d 295 (1997); Weegar v. Bakeberg, 527 N.W.2d 676 (S.D. 1995).

7 People v. Manuel, 94 Ill. 2d 242, 68 Ill. Dec. 506, 446 N.E.2d 240 (1983); Lovgren v. Peoples Elec. Co., Inc., 380 N.W.2d 791 (Minn. 1986); Nevada Power Co. v. Metropolitan Development Co., 104 Nev. 684, 765 P.2d 1162 (1988); Town of Islip v. Paliotti, 196 A.D.2d 648, 601 N.Y.S.2d 926 (2d Dep't 1993); American Mfrs. Mut. Ins. Co. v. Ingram, 301 N.C. 138, 271 S.E.2d 46 (1980).

8 Commissioners of Roads and Revenues of Fulton County v. Davis, 213 Ga. 792, 102 S.E.2d 180 (1958).

9 Flournoy v. First Nat. Bank of Shreveport, 197 La. 1067, 3 So. 2d 244 (1941); State ex rel. Stenberg v. Murphy, 247 Neb. 358, 527 N.W.2d 185 (1995); Franks v. State, 772 S.W.2d 428 (Tenn. 1989).

10 People v. Harvey, 379 Ill. App. 3d 518, 318 Ill. Dec. 756, 884 N.E.2d 724 (1st Dist. 2008); State ex rel. Stenberg v. Murphy, 247 Neb. 358, 527 N.W.2d 185 (1995); Nevada Power Co. v. Metropolitan Development Co., 104 Nev. 684, 765 P.2d 1162 (1988); Ethics Com'n of State of Okl. v. Cullison, 1993 OK 37, 850 P.2d 1069 (Okla. 1993); General Motors Corp. v. Oklahoma County Bd. of Equalization, 1983 OK 59, 678 P.2d 233 (Okla. 1983); Franks v. State, 772 S.W.2d 428 (Tenn. 1989); Geeslin v. State Farm Lloyds, 255 S.W.3d 786 (Tex. App. Austin 2008).
 
As to the effect of and rights under a judgment based upon an unconstitutional law, see Am. Jur. 2d, Judgments § 17.
 
As to the res judicata effect of a judgment based upon an unconstitutional law, see Am. Jur. 2d, Judgments § 752.

11 Flournoy v. First Nat. Bank of Shreveport, 197 La. 1067, 3 So. 2d 244 (1941); Franks v. State, 772 S.W.2d 428 (Tenn. 1989).

12 Liddell v. Heavner, 2008 OK 6, 180 P.3d 1191 (Okla. 2008).

13 Flournoy v. First Nat. Bank of Shreveport, 197 La. 1067, 3 So. 2d 244 (1941).

14 Nevada Power Co. v. Metropolitan Development Co., 104 Nev. 684, 765 P.2d 1162 (1988); Ethics Com'n of State of Okl. v. Cullison, 1993 OK 37, 850 P.2d 1069 (Okla. 1993); Franks v. State, 772 S.W.2d 428 (Tenn. 1989).
 
As to the limitations to which this rule is subject, see § 196.

15 State ex rel. Stenberg v. Murphy, 247 Neb. 358, 527 N.W.2d 185 (1995).

16 Helvey v. Dawson County Bd. of Equalization, 242 Neb. 379, 495 N.W.2d 261 (1993) (a court may not grant any relief based upon a statute which is nonexistent or a statute which has become nonexistent by reason of a judicial declaration of unconstitutionality).

17 Millet v. Rizzo, 2 So. 2d 244 (La. Ct. App. 1st Cir. 1941); Board of Managers of James Walker Memorial Hospital of Wilmington v. City of Wilmington, 237 N.C. 179, 74 S.E.2d 749 (1953); State ex rel. Tharel v. Board of Com'rs of Creek County, 1940 OK 468, 188 Okla. 184, 107 P.2d 542 (1940).
 
As to the effect of a declaration of unconstitutionality on acts performed under it, generally, see § 196.

18 Thomas v. North Carolina Dept. of Human Resources, 124 N.C. App. 698, 478 S.E.2d 816 (1996), aff'd, 346 N.C. 268, 485 S.E.2d 295 (1997).

19 Jones v. Columbian Carbon Co., 132 W. Va. 219, 51 S.E.2d 790 (1948).

20 Flournoy v. First Nat. Bank of Shreveport, 197 La. 1067, 3 So. 2d 244 (1941); Amyot v. Caron, 88 N.H. 394, 190 A. 134 (1937).

21 Chicago, I. & L.R. Co. v. Hackett, 228 U.S. 559, 33 S. Ct. 581, 57 L. Ed. 966 (1913); Payne v. Griffin, 51 F. Supp. 588 (M.D. Ga. 1943); Flournoy v. First Nat. Bank of Shreveport, 197 La. 1067, 3 So. 2d 244 (1941).

22 Painter v. Shalala, 97 F.3d 1351 (10th Cir. 1996); Bartlett v. Bowen, 816 F.2d 695 (D.C. Cir. 1987), opinion reinstated on reconsideration, 824 F.2d 1240 (D.C. Cir. 1987).

23 U.S. v. Baucum, 80 F.3d 539 (D.C. Cir. 1996).

24 Neely v. U.S., 546 F.2d 1059, 41 A.L.R. Fed. 331 (3d Cir. 1976).

From: § 195, American Jurisprudence 2d, Volume 16 (Conflict of Laws to Constitutional Law 1-359).

Never Again!

Recognizing the many sad lessons of civilian disarmament and subsequent genocides in the 20th Century, we will make bold and forthright statement: Never Again! We will not submit to the unlawful decrees of tyrants. We will not meekly go their jails and internment camps. We will fight for our liberty, to our dying breath.

Come Armed, Come Masked

I recommend that all adults who publicly assemble at these burn barrel events do so armed, as is our right. And those who come armed should also wear masks, to protect themselves from malicious prosecution. I plan to wear a Guy Fawkes mask, but you can wear a bandana, face muffler, or the face mask of your choice. Joining you, also wearing masks, will be many mayors, sheriffs and their deputies, chiefs of police and their officers, town council members, clergy, and people of all walks of life. We vastly outnumber the tyrants. The tyrants deserve nothing but our scorn and derision. Their fate is already sealed.

Plausible Denial

After this fateful day has come and gone, FFL holders and public officials will be able to recount: "I had no choice. My records were taken by men with guns who were wearing masks!" (So they'll have no excuse if they don't cooperate with this nationwide display of civil disobedience.)

God Bless The Republic. Down with Tyrants. We Will Prevail!

- James Wesley, Rawles - January 28, 2013

Note: Permission to reprint or re-post this piece in full by any method (printed or electronically) is granted by the author (James Wesley, Rawles), as a long as it is not altered in any way and it is reproduced in full.

Brother Rawles,
Thank you to you and Ulysses in Montana for the detailed article on .308 battle rifles.  The current political environment kicked me into high gear, buying one.  Ulysses information helped me out tremendously.  It will help me save time and money on getting familiar with a new caliber and rifle.  In the beginning hours of the Gun Grab I picked up an Armalite AR-10 lower receiver and mags. I've got a number of 5.56 AR's but have been putting off getting my "dream" rifle for a couple of years.  Depending on what happens in Washington DC, I might trade it toward a FAL or build the .308 Armalite. 
 
There's a lot of people who argue with their spouse's upset over their firearm purchases.  I've had to explain to my wife that I'm expending a large part of my lifetime's firearm budget in a short period of time...and not by choice.  It's either now or never.  We had a heart to heart discussion about it and have had to make some sacrifice's in some other area's for a short period of time.  She's been supportive but I regret not explaining things to her better at the beginning.  One silver lining of this situation is learning to be a better husband and mate. 
 
Thank you for years of telling us to stock up on magazines and all the information you share. God bless you and yours, - K. in Richland, Washington 

JWR Replies: I've mentioned this before, but given the exigencies of the politics of the day, it bears repetition: Stock up on magazines before a ban. Magazines should be your highest purchasing priority.

In the worst case there will be a Federal production ban on battle rifles and magazines with no grandfather clause. But failing that, I expect to read of a "bi-partisan compromise" for "...only a magazine ban." And this compromise will be labeled by the mass media as a huge disappointment for the Democrat party. (Isn't incrementalism devious?)

But even if a magazine ban fails in Congress, then we can expect an import ban via Executive Order! I've been warning you since 2007. It is time to get serious about buying full capacity magazines, even if it means running up a balance on your credit card for a couple of months. (And this is coming from someone who is adverse to consumer credit!) In three or four year, when a 19-round Glock magazine is selling for $200, you'll be glad that you did!

Captain Rawles:
Having read the two opposing viewpoints on this topic, I would like to weigh in and offer some insight for what it's worth.  It is always hard not to put people in a category, especially the protectors of our society, police and soldiers. 

I am also a retired peace officer and a military veteran, from a central California medium sized agency.  I have relocated to the American Redoubt because California's politics and downward spiral into the gutter was more than I could bear, especially as a civilian.  Apparently thousands of my fellow retired officers agree because they live here too.  Maybe we are onto something?  Maybe we have looked into the face of the enemy and realized that the enemy is our own species.

Both of my sons have followed in my footsteps with the same agency, and like their peers, are doing their time until they can retire at the earliest opportunity.  I consider both of them, like myself, sheepdogs.

During my 30 years of service, I worked patrol, the jail, K-9, undercover narcotics investigations, criminal investigations, and internal affairs.  I was also a member of our department's SWAT, and as a Sergeant and then as a Commander, supervised and managed various divisions including patrol, the jail, and investigations.  I have countless hours of in service training, including political violence and terrorism, and hostage negotiations.  I have a degree in Administration of Justice.  Most importantly, I have the experience of dealing with very bad people, some of whom have taken innocent life by violence, or who have abused and molested the innocent.

We can not lump firemen in with peace officers, nor can we include  dispatchers, or correctional officers, no offense to my friends.  It is a different mission, pure and simple.  Not to say that many of these folks do not hold the same "mindset".  For that matter, there are a whole lot of official, powers-of-arrest, firearms-toting "peace officers", who have never worked a night shift, served a warrant, written a crime report, made an arrest, or testified in court.  Everything from the state lottery, racing commission, the board of medical quality assurance,  and attorney general have "peace officers" on board.  Granted, I will give credit that many are retired or transferred from actual Sheriff and Police departments.  Suffice to say that there are few who have taken those scary walks in dark alleyways, with service weapon in hand, catching the bad people and protecting those who rely on them.

With that definition, let's examine some truths, at least those that I know.  I have no experience with cities like New York, Chicago, N. Orleans, or for that matter some little po-dunk in whatever part of this great nation, run by "good ol' boy" LEO's who are not even close to being a professional.  But we are all aware of the stereotypical, including some Federal agencies.  The culture of those places is foreign to me and most of the guys that I knew and hung with from agencies all over the state.  I am not aware of any of those who I would call my associates being involved in graft, turning a blind eye, or being robotic pawns for a corrupt system, federal or otherwise.

 More importantly, arresting people simply because they can be arrested, or chasing them down with guns drawn for misdemeanors and infractions like some kind of blue androids is something that goes against the grain of real cops.  Are there idiots out there even in the ranks of police?  Of course!  There are some who lack common sense, who can not identify with their role, but who slipped through the recruitment/training process.  But looking at the totality of it, the lone rangers never last long, and are not trusted by the veterans, and in many cases are even shunned.  

It is important to remember, we are not in the same political climate of times past.  This is a different beast that has reared it's ugly head, in a nation that is very, very divided, perhaps more so than at any other time in our history with the exception of the Civil War years.  Anyone doubting this can just go to an internet news release from any major news outlet, and scroll down to read the responsive comments.  In many cases it is outright vicious and ugly, and pretty asinine as well.  We have evolved into an "us vs. them" society.   Some days I wake up and wonder what happened.

Where do our police line up?  Well it is not with secular progressive liberal folks who want to disarm the general law abiding public, I can say that pretty confidently.  And our police are totally cognizant of the continual downward spiral and degradation of our society, from poorly educated young people to a morally bankrupt and drugged up populace.  They have seen the negative effects of a mamby-pamby outlook for punishing offenders, a re-hab mentality, redistribution of wealth in an entitlement-oriented world, and the worst, "tolerance", of just about everything that they don't believe is beneficial to our society.  Combine all of it and the result is, in one word, failure...big time.

Most cops can be labeled as conservatives.  A few liberal thinkers are here and there, but by and large, cops lean right.  They pay their bills, and are protective of their families.  Almost all believe strongly in the death penalty and strong punishment, and know that by the time cause is established in order to prosecute a suspect, most if not all suspects are in fact guilty, their right to a trial and multiple appeals notwithstanding;  furthermore, these people usually have more rights afforded to them than to their victims.  They also believe in SELF DEFENSE as part of right and wrong.  They know that folks should at least try to take care of themselves when possible, because cops do not live on every street corner and usually arrive on the scene after the fact, and sort out the mess.  They have a strong sense of protection.

Most abhor the politics, even their own employee associations;  a handful end up being the working stiffs for those roles.  Ask a working cop about gun control while he or she is on the job and they will often tap dance around the issue until they know they can trust the asker.  It is then that they will tell you that all "good guys" should have guns to take care of themselves and their families, and that they should use them well!  It makes a cop's job just a little easier, and maybe insures that he goes home at the end of his watch, unharmed.

Their bosses at top management levels often side with the political current which may change with the wind, in order to get elected or maintain their appointed position.  The working guys and gals usually don't trust these people either, and some are viewed as a sort of traitor.

The newer generation of police are up tight folks, and rightfully so, because they are constantly being recorded and watched, investigated by their own in addition to the standard watch dog efforts.

The old school, my generation, did not have all of this burden, and there seemed to be a tighter bond amongst us;  plus we had a lot more freedom on the job, sometimes even having a bit of fun with it.  General policies were fewer and less restrictive, and lacked the need for political correctness, and the penal code was a lot smaller!  Not taking everything and everybody so seriously was a huge stress reliever, which was needed in a field that suffered such a high rate of suicide and divorce.  Stress was there, just not talked about. 

For the most part, LEOs have a distrust for the media; being maligned  and given unwarranted "black eyes" for the sake of headlines.  Nor do they trust politicians, who have shown their propensity, time and again,  to lie like Russian radio stations.  In fact, cops tend to hang with each other, not John Q.  They hate going to non-cop events with a lot of crowds and fan fair, where they are usually the only ones introduced by their profession.  Most cops don't even like to have their "code 7" lunch breaks in busy public diners.  When one does befriend a civilian, it is usually a tight bond that will last indefinitely.

But they do know that their uniform targets them, and in a strange way, they are proud of that.  They know that they are held to a higher standard.  They are take charge people and do not run from danger, but usually run to it.  They view themselves as guardians, and are loyal to codes that have definite lines that are never crossed.  Any that are not an alpha personality usually don't last beyond a few years.

Cops view their jobs as babysitting an ignorant society hell bent on destroying themselves in a downward spiral of moral decay.  They see the worst of the worst, and at times end up at an interrogation table, "establishing a rapport" with people who they can't stomach in order to get an admission. They don't see themselves as "better" Americans...just separate and unique.  They are largely patriotic.  The older they get the more cynicism creeps in, but they see it as "it is what it is".

Cops see the criminal justice "system" as broken and unfixable, and do not hold lawmakers, lawyers or judges in high regard, with the exception of the few who espouse like ideals.  Ditto to the run of the mill parole, probation, and social service types who have been educated to "save" society by way of rehab, again, a different mission than that of "enforcement".  Of course there is always a contingent of these folks who hold similar conservative views and are tough on the bad guys, who remain friends to those on the line.

Young cops would work for free, to get a chance to chase the bad guys, roll "code 3" everywhere, and be the warrior they long to be.  These guys are the consummate young sheepdog, and live in an adrenaline-filled dreamscape of the chase.  You have to love them.  The older warriors are their heroes, and they pay attention to their lessons well.

The ever-fickle public they serve always wants the toughest cop on the planet to be the one who responds to their particular problem with a violent criminal or whose home is the target of an invasion. The darker the night gets, our sheep dog becomes everyone's daddy.  But, he knows that his role is fleeting and that the same public will complain to high heaven in different circumstances.  I can't count the times I was told that my badge was in jeopardy, and that I was reminded who paid my salary.  He profiles his targets carefully.  He does not believe in a gray world of no wrongs and no rights.  He knows that he must be the Rock of Gibraltar in the face of tragedy, especially for those who have been victims.  He has a soft spot for youngsters.  He doesn't discuss his troubles with partners or sergeants.  He cries alone.

All of these sweeping generalities said, I would also say that when it all comes down to the wire, cops for the most part are not going to play the patsy for an oppressive government.  They are smart enough to realize that those persecuted would also be family and friends.

And most see themselves as quite apart from their brethren in federal or even state service.  They also know the lines of differentiation between themselves those agencies who have little or no discretion, or who have a limited worldview of "enforcement".

In my humble opinion, our sheep dogs will, for the most part, line up on the same side of the fence as the general conservative and freedom-loving public when it comes to enforcing strict gun laws.  Why?  Because they have the discretion to do so, they have a lot of common sense, and the last thing they want to do is imprison folks for the sake of an unrealistic world view, which would include their friends and family and maybe even associates.  Discretion is the key word, and it is why we pick our candidates carefully.  Those who lack discretion never last in this career field.

Will they all just quit and toss their badges down?  No.  They will continue to do what they do best, which is to go into the night to protect us from the wolves, while we sleep.  There are enough bad guys, n'eer do well's, and hell-raisers to keep the jails full.  And if we ever undergo a societal collapse where police personnel can no longer feed their family on a cop's salary, then they will just go home, and be one of us, and take care of their own.  In fact I would go so far as to say that the majority of working peace officers would actually encourage folks to be self-sustaining preppers!

Some of the more trustworthy people I ever knew when I was working "the street" were just good, hardworking, honest people who would do their best to keep me out of a jam, and most of them were armed to the teeth, and I knew it too.  A smile always came across my face when one of these men or women would show up, because I knew that they would back me up even if the bad guys outnumbered us.  Sheep dogs are sheep dogs.  Period. - L.D.

Sir:
Thank you, Mr. Rawles, for sharing your vision and maintaining a web site where we can gather great ideas on so many topics.

I also thank you for taking a moment to consider my thoughts in this reply to "A Prepared Sheepdog" on the 'goodness' of law enforcement.

My comments are not those of a LEO-hating perp, but are the development of a lifetime of objective witness and thinking about the police state and this condition we call liberty. I also point out that this issue is not solely about what LEO will do when the call comes to disarm Americans, but rather what they are doing now in regards to the liberties of Americans.
Mr. Sheepdog, the "the disturbing trend" is not one of "anti-law enforcement sentiment." The disturbing trend is one where law enforcement is exhibiting a growing disregard for the liberties and Constitutional protections of American citizens. I agree, Mr. Sheepdog, that it could be considered "biased" to distrust an entire vocational group, but when it comes to law enforcement, the behavior of the entire vocation speaks for itself. I share a personal example, and then I explain what we are facing.

I have never been arrested in my life. I haven't gotten so much as a traffic ticket in the past 17 years, and I earned that last ticket while exceeding the speed limit on an open interstate so I wouldn't be late for church with my parents on Easter Sunday. A high-school valedictorian, honorable military service, deans-list, honor-society kind of guy who now works in an appointed academic leadership role for a well-known university. I guess I'm trying to say that I'm no thug, nor am I a liberal. I am an AR15 owning, Constitution-loving, amateur prepper, and I am deeply alarmed by the growing thuggishness of modern law enforcement toward everyone It seems that the concept of law enforcement is one of worship, where we have elevated men and women to a "can't fail" cult status, most of whom have not even obtained a college degree.

I don't challenge the idea that their job is difficult, but hundreds of occupations are just as emotionally challenging and difficult as LEO, yet we don't see them committing crime after crime against Americans and falling back on the image of their job for exoneration.

About a month ago I was driving on an interstate almost 50 miles from the border when I was directed to "secondary" at a non-border checkpoint. I don't know what made Customs and Border Patrol to think I was somehow in violation of whatever Customs and Border issues they were enforcing, but I didn't argue and pulled into secondary. Maybe it was the trailer I was towing, but I had committed no crimes.

The first agent approached my vehicle and asked me where I came from. I told him that if he articulated some suspicion of a crime he believed I committed, I would answer his questions, but until then I wasn't answering any and I would like to be on my way. I pointed out that I had not crossed any borders, and the road we were on didn't even cross a US border. He immediately escalated the issue, demanding that I produce an ID. I told him I would be happy to show my ID, but I first wanted to know what potential crime they were investigating. No crime was articulated. He then threatened me, saying if I didn't tell them who I was, he was going to take me inside and "roll me." I told him to do what he had to do. He turned to the agent beside him and told him to "get the suit and the taser."

He then took a couple steps back from my vehicle, and I think that is when he noticed my GoPro camera mounted on the dash, recording the exchange, because his demeanor changed. It appears he took a good look at the scenario, and I think he realized that he might be wading into some deep water without a life jacket. I'm not much to look at, easy to stereotype as an insignificant nobody, and I was dressed for driving in a faded print tee and some basketball shorts, but I was driving an impeccably clean and polished vehicle with a high-end trailer. And I was talking to him with respect, consideration, and intelligence.

Far be it from him and the crew, however, to lose such an encounter over something pesky like the Constitution.
In the next few minutes, there appeared a half-dozen agents all around me, one of them with a dog. Then for the next 30 minutes they attempted to make a case as to why I should give them personal information. Among their arguments; when I asked if I was being detained, on agent said "yes." When I asked why, no one could give me an answer. My new question then became, "why are you detaining me," whereupon the new answer became "we are not detaining you." So then when I asked if I was free to go, the answer was "no, you are detaining yourself." The angry agent actually said that several times. He even said that the burden of identifying myself fell on me, and that until I could prove to him that I wasn't an illegal alien, he could assume that I was an illegal. I quickly pointed out that we are all "innocent until proven guilty," that he did not enjoy the privilege of deciding who was guilty, and that in order for him to take action against me as a suspected illegal, both himself and every other agent who walked into view of my camera were going to have to articulate to a judge exactly why they suspected me to be an illegal, and that I would be happy to have that discussion. Several of the agents immediately walked away.

The next threat was that I would be kept there all night if I refused to tell them who I was. I asked them why they would keep my all night and refuse to let me go when none of them could actually explain why they even stopped me and were detaining me. Again, their response was to place the blame back on me, an important caveat that needs to be kept in mind. I asked the agent if by some chance I ended up before a judge, would he tell the judge that "I detained myself." He refused to answer that, whereupon I announced that I was “undetaining” myself and I would like to be on my way. They refused to allow me to go.

Out came the information poster board; they held it up next to the driver door while standing around me now taking pictures of me. I told them I didn't want them taking pictures of me, whereupon they announced they had just as much right to take my picture as I did to record them. I told them what they were forgetting was that I have a right to travel in my own country free and unmolested by law enforcement and they were infringing that right, and that I would never stop them and force them to sit there so I could take their picture, so their claims of having that "right" were unethical and flawed. No concession.

The poster they held up outlined the privileges as defined by the USSC and legislation. I then challenged them to show me on that poster where it said I had any obligation to submit to identifying myself when I had committed no crime. They truly were stumped...one agent actually studied the poster with a little look of surprise on his face because it appears that none of them were aware that nowhere on that poster did it outline the citizen's obligations at a non-border checkpoint.

One agent suggested that I was in violation of a law by refusing to identify myself. I adjusted my camera (for dramatic effect) and asked him to clarify; "am I in violation of any law by refusing to identify myself?" He actually said, "yeah, you are in violation of a law. I don't know what law, but there is one." I then asked him if he planned to arrest me for a law that he really wasn't sure about. Another agent attempted to bail him out of his stupid comment by saying, "you are in violation of yourself." I calmly pointed out that his notion was absolutely ridiculous and that their nonsense had long lost any semblance of legal language.

Then the waterworks came on; the original angry agent started to emote about how I wouldn't find a more avid follower of the Constitution than himself and he empathized with me. I told him then he should understand why I don't think there's anything noble or Constitutional about stopping without cause someone who is just driving down the highway, and trying to make them answer personal questions. This quickly devolved into the entire group of them standing by my door saying they would prefer to be chasing illegals in the desert, and catching big trucks with loads of drugs or illegals on board, and that they are "just doing" their job and this is not the place to make a statement. I pointed out that I had places to go, things to do, and making a statement was not one of them. My refusal to identify myself was based solely on a love for the protections of the Constitution. I reminded them that I had no plans to talk to a federal law enforcement agent today, but that they had stopped me, therefore it was illogical for them to shift the burden of this encounter onto me since they were the ones who initiated it. I reminded them that I told them many times that I wanted to be on my way, and it was their decision (not mine) to detain me that was interfering with whatever intentions they had to chase illegals in the desert or stop all the big trucks that were rolling by with illegals on board.

Interspersed with their ramblings were questions about what I had in the trailer, where was I going, and how much longer my camera was going to record. I refused to answer any questions.
They started to talk about how they don't necessarily disagree with me, but that hypothetically "sometimes people don't have control over the policies they are required to follow." I reminded them that they swore an oath, they knew what this job was about when they applied, they know what the job is about now, and they don't get to hide behind some curtain of "policy." I pointed out that if I had a job that asked me to even lean a little on the citizen's protections by the Constitution, I would walk away and find another more noble job...I didn't care if it meant I had to scrub toilets at McDonalds, because scrubbing toilets is more respectable than collecting taxpayer dollars to then turn around and demand that these same taxpayers surrender their rights. They literally stuck their hands in their pockets, the feeling of shame and defeat was apparent. It was getting quiet.

Their last effort was to come and tell me that they ran my tags, which I pointed out they had no probable cause to do and I did not give them permission. They said given the fact that they could run my tags, they didn't understand why I would refuse to ID myself. I then asked them if running my tags gave them the satisfaction they were looking for, then it appeared to me there was no reason for them to unlawfully detain me and I'd like to be on my way...whereupon the agent actually said, "that didn't really go the way I intended."

Finally a supervisor showed up. He asked me what it was I "wanted." I just chuckled and told him I just wanted to be on my way, nothing more, they stopped me against my will, but his officers refused to either let me go or explain why they were detaining me. The supervisor tried to get me to identify myself again, and failed. He made the mistake of suggesting that since I was "so big on not letting people know who I am," he was going to explain to me how things worked at a checkpoint. I pointed out that I was not at all about refusing to let people know who I am, but that I was fully against any agent of the government having the privilege to stop me a some indiscriminate point on a roadway just to try and force me to identify myself, because their behavior was totally against the spirit of the 4th, 5th, and 14th Amendment. I shared that his officers already told me how "a checkpoint works," but that they were woefully unable to explain even basic understandings of the law or the obligations of the citizens.

This was around the 40 minute mark, which is close to what I believe is an allowable legal time frame for them to detain someone without either arresting them or letting them go. There was frustration evident on a couple faces, and half-hidden embarrassment on the faces of a few others, and they knew that they were going to either have to lose this battle now, or lose it in a very public place where I was going to hire a lawyer who was going to tear them apart even more skillfully than I had. The agent started making this incoherent statement about being "satisfied" that I wasn't here illegally or carrying drugs and I was free to go.

The point is that in this story, the casual observer would surmise that only one of these agents were "bad" by virtue of behavior (his threats both direct and indirect), but the reality is that all of them were COMPLICIT in trying to negotiate a surrender of my Constitutional protections. This is the condition in almost every case of police impropriety. Maybe only one cop beat the handcuffed perp, but not a single one of the other officers did what they are actually obligated to do...which would be to step in, stop the "bad cop," and actually even arrest the "bad cop" for doing something illegal. Such stories happen...well, never. When there isn't a camera around, the investigations almost always find that there was no "wrongdoing," but when something is caught on camera or is simply too much to sweep under the rug, only then do we hear about some kind of proper definitive action taking place, and even sometimes LEO misbehavior caught on camera is dismissed as "appropriate action on behalf of the officers."

This tendency to subjectively exonerate police misbehavior is precisely why bad cops are chronic offenders. And the fact that the rest of the allegedly "good cops" refuse to hold each other accountable is exactly why there is a "growing trend of mistrust" of LEO. It's this mentality which leads law enforcement to routinely abuse their position to bully people in ways that are both unprofessional, unethical, and likely illegal. And the public worship of LEO is likely just ONE reason they fall back to their position of always blaming their condition on others or refusing to acknowledge that there is even a problem with the modern condition of law enforcement.

The reality is that given the current condition of LEO, it's not that there are a few bad cops, it's that there are only a few good ones, but we can't figure out who they are. I don't care about stories where a cop bought a kid a burger or gave boots to a homeless man, because even the Yakuza ran large-scale charities for the people of Japan after the earthquake, but they are still bad people. No one says that "all cops are out to get us," but many of us believe that very few of them have our best interests in mind and it’s not unreasonable for us to consider the police to be dangerous to our life and liberty until they prove otherwise. It's the same reason cops put handcuffs on everyone they take out of a car and frisk them even if they have no intention to arrest them...it's because it's "cop safety first." I feel the same way about modern LEO.

It's encouraging to hear a LEO suggest that they would be reluctant to try and disarm civilians (although I'm not sure if it's because they love the Constitution or because they know it will be a bloodbath), but the evidence suggests that actions are louder than words. Ruby Ridge. Waco. Milwaukee police, Lakeland, Ohio police, California police, New Jersey police, Hazelwood, MO, DC police...this is just a tip of the iceberg of cases where the law enforcement committed egregious crimes against citizens or confiscated legally-owned firearms and refused to return them, sometimes requiring court action to force them to respect the 2nd Amendment rights of the citizens rather than reflecting the ideology that all of the cops you know are advocates for the 2nd Amendment.

I worked as a paramedic during five years of college, and yes I encountered a few good cops along the way, but I saw an amazing amount of misbehavior by cops, from theft to narcotic use to domestic abuse to abuse of power. Not one time did I ever see one cop hold another accountable. You can tell me all you want about these good cops you work with, but what you can't do is dismiss the observations by people who see the police as the front-line wave of erosion to our Constitutional protections, and I conclude by pointing out that you did exactly what every cop does who is trying to defend the damaged reputation of law enforcement; you placed the burden back onto the citizens instead of acknowledging that there is an insidious growing problem in the institution of law enforcement.

Look inward, Officer Sheepdog. Look inward. - S.P.

Picture this: On some not-so-remote night, you are awakened by an insistent thumping on your door, or perhaps by the sound of breaking glass. You stagger up and groggily go toward the noise, maybe muttering or worse. Perhaps you have the time and presence of mind to grab your home defense tool of whatever description, and maybe you awaken your spouse and get him or her (and any children) to a more secure part of the house. Now what? What are you prepared to do?

Like many of you, I have been self-sufficient and responsible for more decades than I care to remember, starting with my days in the Scouts and continuing through my backpacker period in the 1970s. As a downy-faced youth barely out of my teens, I raised my right hand and solemnly swore to uphold the Constitution of the United States and of the Commonwealth of Virginia, an oath I have reaffirmed five times since and take very seriously. In the intervening thirty-five or more years, I have served as a member of state, local, and federal law enforcement organizations. I was a prosecutor for about twenty years and have practiced law in and out of government. I competed in intercollegiate shooting sports back in the day, and have maintained safety and proficiency ever since. I have food, water, medical supplies, radios, batteries, ammunition and other prudential stores securely on hand, just as I am sure many of you do. I do not scare easily.

But I am concerned today more than I have ever been. Why?
Go back to the opening paragraph of this post. In the time I used to introduce myself, you have stumbled to a window and looked out over the street. Oddly, you note, the police already seem to be there to deal with this apparent home invasion. Good, it saves you the 9-1-1 call and allows you to relax some. The cavalry is already here! That reflex, borne out of a century of trusting relationships with law enforcement officials, just might get you killed tonight.You see, the police are not here to help you – to either serve or protect you – tonight. They are here to search your home, detain your family members, and perhaps to arrest you or them. No, this is not some bad dream from 1930’s Nazi Germany, or Stalinist Russia. .. but it might as well be. Your crime? Rumored possession of a twelve-round magazine.

Impossible? I hope so with all my heart, but the trend lines are leading in that direction with a velocity I have never seen before. The current occupant of the White House is no friend of freedom and is famously dismissive of the opinions of people who disagree with him. He has nothing to fear and nothing to lose. Congress has proven itself incapable of principled action, other than self-serving posturing and dithering. The barely-suppressed glee with which the opponents of an armed law-abiding citizenry sought to capitalize upon the tragic loss of life in Connecticut should be a wake-up call to all of us. Consider Senator Feinstein: her gun registration/confiscation/licensing/permitting bill was drafted and ready before the shooting started, so it could be pulled off the shelf and presented as if it were prompted by the tragedy. This crisis, from their perspective, is just too good to waste. The Judiciary, then, certainly? Hang on for a minute.

Those are the politics of the day and are beyond my expertise. My purpose in authoring this post is to encourage you to pause and reflect on the legal and Constitutional framework in which your life-and-death decisions will be made this awful night, and every night hereafter, together with some suggestions I hope you will consider. First the disclaimer: this is general Constitutional and occasional Virginia state law information, and should not be considered legal advice, either in Virginia or elsewhere. If these musings prompt you to specific legal questions, you should consult an attorney licensed in your state and experienced in the subject matter of your concern.

So, let us begin at the beginning – why shouldn’t you surrender your firearms to Senator Feinstein’s minions, or at least let her and her Congressional buddies decide how many of what type of what caliber and what action you should be “permitted” to possess, and when, and where? The simple answer to that question is the best one: it is simply none of her business.
I admit that I do not know how things are in the People’s Democratic Republic of California, but here in the United States we have a foundational principle, enshrined and encapsulated in a document called the Constitution. The Constitution, ratified in 1789 and amended twenty-seven times since, is a living and breathing expression of the minimal conditions deemed necessary, in 1789 and every day since, for liberty to blossom. Think of it as the DNA of freedom – the simple, brief, and basic blueprint that underlies and enables everything that makes the United States the United States. Just as with DNA, if you tweak or delete or add to the basic components, the creature that emerges is not merely a weakened version of the original, but (if it lives at all) is a completely different creature.

Our Constitution is a model of clarity and brevity. There is nothing in there that is complicated or obscure. You could read it (and I hope you will) in a few minutes, including the Amendments. It sets out some basic principles, establishes a structure for the federal government, specifies a few duties for the federal government to address, and then sweeps up everything else back into the bin from which the material to form a government came in the first place – from the people. Drawing on another pillar of liberty, the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution is an expression of the consent of the governed to a specific and very limited role for the central government. That consent, like any consent, may be revoked or modified but should not be taken for granted.

One stark difference between our Constitution and others attempted in other places and times is that the Constitution is all about limiting, not expanding, the powers of the central government. Fresh from the experience of the War of Independence, fighting against monarchial tyranny, the drafters of the Declaration of Independence (before the war) and the Constitution (after) were mindful of the human reflex to aggregate power and were determined to institute safeguards against that aggregation. That is one reason why there are three independent and theoretically equal branches of the government, one of which is composed of two bodies chosen in vastly different manners for significantly different time periods. That is why the states were originally active participants, controlling the selection of senators. That is why the resultant entity was called “The United States of America”, as opposed to the “Homogenized Formerly Independent States of America”.

Look again at the first Ten Amendments. You or I, in our individual capacities, could not possibly violate the Bill of Rights because every provision is a restriction upon the conduct of the central government, made applicable to the states through the Fourteenth Amendment. Also please notice that the Amendments do not undertake to create rights for us, but rather that they guarantee preexisting God-given rights, or rights free men had earned and received in centuries of struggle with the English Crown, like trial by jury. You may recall that these first ten were part of a package of twelve proposed amendments passed by the first Congress in response to concerns in some states, that the original draft was not sufficiently specific and clear that the central government was, in all Constitutional matters, a limited carve-out from pre-existing states rights or citizen’s rights. Two of the twelve, the first two, were not ratified by a sufficient number of states, so the ten which were ratified were renumbered and became the Bill of Rights. Finally, please notice that there are no “senior” rights or “junior” rights – no super-amendments or semi-amendments – and that every right is of equal significance and is entitled to the same deference.

Unpack the Amendments and you will immediately see that they support and reinforce one another for the purpose of restraining the central government from tyrannical impulses. They do not represent an ala carte menu, from which the government may pick and choose, but rather constitute a recipe in which all the ingredients are necessarily included. This reality has real consequences; no one would look at a brownie and insist that the baker “back out” the eggs for use elsewhere, and neither could one reach into the Constitution and void one provision without crashing the whole thing. Freedom of speech and of religious expression, of peaceful assembly, to petition the government, from unreasonable searches and seizures, from excessive bail, from compelled self-incrimination, from cruel and unusual punishment. . . these are all cut from the same cloth as one another, and all cut from the same cloth as the right to keep and bear arms. The Second Amendment is no more an anachronism than is the First, or the Fourth, or the Fifth, and that is why, Senator, I do not need or seek your permission to keep and bear arms.

Either from intellectual dishonesty or lack of capacity, this point is seldom made in the discussion of gun rights, but it should be, and I encourage you to ponder it. Given the interdependence of the rights expressed (but not “granted”, remember) in the Bill of Rights, the arguments advanced by Senator Feinstein, Governor Cuomo, and others are plainly flawed. Take any one of them, pop out the references to firearms, and replace it with another right reiterated in the Constitution. “Why would anybody need more than ten cartridges to hunt deer?” then becomes “Why would anyone own more than ten books?”, or “Why would anybody need to post more than ten blog posts?”. “Why would any city need more than one newspaper, or more than one house of worship?”

Indeed, twisting a Second Amendment discussion to a discussion about hunting (or target shooting or collecting or home defense) cedes the main point – the Amendment prohibits infringement of the right for any reason, or for no reason. It is not a hunting amendment, although it reinforces a hunting tradition. It is an anti-tyranny measure – nothing more, and nothing less. Want more proof? Review the rest of the Constitution . . . no other tangible object is expressly named and expressly protected from government infringement. You have no specific Constitutional right to possess anything else; that speaks volumes about the strength and purpose of the amendment. Nothing else is specifically protected because nothing else can compare with the effect firearms have on tyrants.

Another fallacy commonly running through the arguments of those seeking to infringe gun rights is that those proponents are making use of some of the same rights in their efforts to invalidate another. They are freely speaking, assembling, petitioning, as they are welcome to do, for the purpose of undermining their freedom to speak, assemble, and petition. Considering the interdependent nature of the rights enumerated in the Bill of Rights, it is fallacious to claim to support some while decrying others. If your spouse or significant other were to cheat on you every Friday night, for example, would you consider that he or she is 86% faithful? No, you would rightly conclude that he or she is ”unfaithful”, and the same is true of those who claim to ardently support “some” of the Bill of Rights. They survive or fail as a group.

How do you know that the anti-gun forces know that their argument is flawed? Because they have consistently approached their aims by nibbling away at gun rights, by stealth and guile and a state at a time, especially when they can find cover in some tragedy. If they really believed that the Second Amendment is not a basic right, or that the vast majority of people in the United States do not value it as a basic right, they have had over two hundred years to propose an amendment repealing the second amendment. Nothing is stopping them, except the illogic of their own position.

Back at your door, you warily peek out and are stunned to see the pale face of your neighbor, or member of your church, or the parent of another child on your child’s sports team, except tonight he is wearing a helmet, and body armor, and talking into a radio to others you cannot see. Do you invite him in? You may or may not have known that he was a police officer or federal agent, and until tonight it has not mattered to you. Tonight, however, it matters. What will you do?

What you will do is a very personal and difficult decision. What you may do, depending on the circumstances, is easier to describe. With few exceptions, you are under no obligation to open your door to the police. You may, if you choose, remain silent. You may order them off your porch and away from your property. If they escalate and try to force an entry, there are cases which endorse the principle that you may use a reasonable amount of force to resist an unlawful entry or assault, including lethal force if necessary. (See, John Bad Elk v United States, 177 U.S. 529). The facts of these cases are always horrific for everyone concerned, however, and in some of the state cases the result was that the homeowner was convicted of manslaughter instead of murder, which is some solace but definitely not a desirable outcome.

Another approach is to communicate with them. If they are on any lawful mission (as opposed to some cops-gone-wild frolic of their own) they likely have obtained a warrant, either a search warrant to look for something specified in the warrant or an arrest warrant for someone they have reason to believe is located in the house, or perhaps both. The homeowner or person in charge of the location is entitled to see the warrant and know what it authorizes. If a federal warrant, daytime execution is generally required unless the officers have pleaded facts which convinced the issuing judge to authorize a night search. State laws differ on this point. If they have a warrant, resistance is not only futile but is unlawful. You must consent to the execution of a warrant; live to litigate another day. How will you know? They are supposed to announce that they have a warrant, if they do, but you can almost always get in contact with the police commander on scene through the 9-1-1 system. Tell the dispatcher (who is recording the call, so be prudent) that unknown persons are on your porch, ask for assistance, and then ask to speak with the commander if dispatch claims the officers. The fact that the one you saw is all tactical is a plus, in an odd way, because it shows that the officers are concerned for their safety and may be willing to discuss a peaceful resolution.

In this conversation, if you choose it, be judicious in your speech. Do not say anything that might be interpreted as a threat against them or anyone else – that might just give them the excuse they are looking for to escalate. This will be very hard, since your adrenalin will be on overdrive, but it is necessary. Ask whomever you can reach to read the warrant to you. If they have no warrant, tell them goodbye and goodnight. Make no admissions about anything, and do not consent to anything. Remember, they are the professionals at this (“May we just come inside and sit on the couch and work our way through this misunderstanding. . .?”). If they have a warrant, they do not need consent. If they do not have a warrant, they cannot get consent. Right? If at all possible, an audio and video recording of the contact will pay dividends far beyond its expense. If interviewed, I recommend the old Irish Republic Army saying: “Whatever you say, say nothing at all.”

If you elect to litigate another day, you should know what you are up against. I promised, above, to write more about the judicial branch, and here is where I deliver on that promise. Look at Article III of your Constitution . . . absolutely everything the Constitution says about the judicial branch is contained in those ten sentences. Everything else ever done by a federal judge, since 1789, is judicially or statutorily created and extra-constitutional. The Constitution establishes one judgeship, the Chief Justice, and authorizes Congress to create more, if necessary. They have done so, with a will. There are presently 874 federal judgeships, representing a three-fold increase just since 1950. One hundred seventy three of those, or about 20%, are judges nominated by this president in the past four years. Unique in the United States political experience, but common among tin-pot dictators in banana republics, federal judges are appointed for life. They are theoretically subject to impeachment by the House of Representatives and removal by the Senate, but this sanction has been tried only eleven times since 1789 and has resulted in removal only seven times, representing about 0.1% of persons who have served as federal judges. One of the most recent, District Judge Alcee Hastings of Florida, was impeached and removed in 1989 for perjury and bribery, after which he was elected to the House of Representatives, where he remains today. Impeachment is not a serious concern of jurists.

Notable among these extraconstitutional excursions is the claimed authority to invalidate legislative enactments or executive decisions by the simple expedient of declaring those decisions “unconstitutional”. The irony in this is too rich to pass without comment – unaccountable judges making up a rule not found in the constitution to create a veto over the actions of the elected, accountable branches of government, while justifying the grab by constitutional arguments. The case that first articulated this judicial power grab was Marbury v. Madison, a 1802 Supreme Court decision related to the authority of the Court to compel the newly-inaugurated President Jefferson to recognize the last-minute appointments of John Adams’ supporters to federal judgeships. Although not found in or added to the Constitution, this judicial power is not seriously questioned today. Because of this, and because the Supreme Court is the highest federal court, their pronouncements acquire the character of transcendent wisdom, even when demonstrably false or inconsistent. This is the court that found that racial segregation is constitutional (Plessy v. Ferguson, 1896) and also that is not (Brown v. Board of Education, 1954). To paraphrase the words of Justice Robert Jackson, the Supreme Court is not final because it is infallible, but is infallible because it is final.

Federal judges are overwhelmingly older white males (about 70%) who are wealthy by any measure. They are all lawyers, and most are graduates of the same few Ivy League schools. They receive a salary, which may not be diminished, on a par with the starting salary of a first-year associate from a prominent law school working in a big-name big-city law firm, so it would be overly polite to suggest that the best legal minds are concentrated on the bench. Indeed, the Chief Justice has campaigned for higher salaries for judges on this exact basis. (Law school snarky riddle: What do you call an "A" student ten years after law school? “Professor”. What do you call an "C" student ten years after law school? “Your Honor”).

Stark choices, indeed; the young trooper on the porch, in paramilitary garb, or the old judge on the bench, dressed (for some obscure reason) in a medieval cleric’s robe. If he or she is a federal judge, the probability today is one out of five that this president appointed him or her, which could be problematic for you if the issue is some Executive Order issued by the man to whom the judge owes his or her lifetime appointment. That likelihood only grows during the second term.
How about a third option? Apply the principles of cover, concealment, and camouflage to your daily actions with a goal of avoiding the dilemma presented above, and create a “door number three” through which you might escape undetected and unharmed. How?
Consider how people get caught and convicted for present day offenses, and then apply that to the as-yet hypothetical situation in which some firearm or accessory you lawfully posses may become prohibited. Defendants get to be defendants for a very few reasons:
• They are careless in their actions
• They are careless in their words
• They are careless in their selection of “friends”

Those three errors account for the vast majority of charges and convictions, and any future government action against you is likely to follow this pattern. What preparations can you make today that will lessen the probability of this occurring to you, or mitigate the harm if the situation cannot be avoided?

Suggestion One: Make it unnecessary. The scenario outlined above is hypothetical, for now, because no one has seriously proposed additional restrictions (as of the writing of this in mid-January, 2013). That means that the political system, flawed though it is, may provide the safest and surest means to immediately resist any further infringement. Communicate with your legislators, both local and federal, and make your calm and reasonable voice heard. Ranting, while satisfying on some level, is counterproductive. Consider joining and supporting pro-constitutional organizations. Network. Vote. Contribute financially to candidates who support the Constitution and oppose those who do not. Don’t get mad, get busy!

Suggestion Two: Make it hard on them. The simple math of the situation dictates that, should the political process fail the Constitution, enforcement will necessarily be selective and spotty. This argument presupposes that the rest of the society has not crumbled, in which case all bets are off, but rather that respect for only this part of the Constitution has faltered. There are a limited number of police, agents, marshals, judges and jails; they will have to choose targets of opportunity or those prosecutions which make a statement to intimidate others. Your suggested strategy is to be neither of those. Reconsider that “cold dead hands” bumper sticker with a view to how that sentiment might be used against you in a search warrant affidavit to justify a night search. Reevaluate whether it is prudent to advertise your favorite gun manufacturers with stickers on the windows of your vehicles, or with custom license plates. Yes, I know that this represents a self-infringement of both your first and second amendment rights, but I note that this option is only selected after the government jumps the rails and disregards both. If you choose martyrdom, do it thoughtfully.

Similarly, anticipate that everything you write and have ever written on the Internet is still around and might be used against you. Police just need a search warrant, based on an affidavit, to get all of your emails and tweets ever sent, all social media posts and photos, and all data from your computer(s), depending on the retention policies of your service providers. They need less than that, under some circumstances, to get phone records, credit card statements, and other data in the hands of third parties. This might be a great time to look into encryption technologies and IP masking services (like Tor, The Onion Router), but at least be mindful that anything you say or do online or on your smartphone can come back to bite.

Suggestion Three: Make it unproductive. Since scarce enforcement resources will be chasing big headlines and big successes for their political masters, deprive them of this prize. You are not likely to use all of your firearms and all of your ammunition in one night, right, so why risk storing it all in one place where it all may be found? Be creative – and learn from ordinary criminals. Don’t hide your stash where other people can stumble across it, and do not tell anyone what you have and where it is. Do not being twenty guns to the range and let others see them. Trust no one, and particularly not people you do not know extremely well. Let them take all night getting a safe open only to find a broken .22 revolver. If you choose to carry, with or without whatever permit your state requires, do so discretely. In short, be safe by being invisible.
We can all hope that it never comes to this, but prudence dictates preparation. Unless you are willing to consent to the systematic destruction of your basic rights, give it some thought.

It should come as no surprise that at the same time that Statists agitators are vociferously calling for more People Control that freedom lovers are heading for the exit doors in greater numbers, to wit: The American Redoubt movement, Glenn Beck's announced Independence Park community (in Texas), calls for state secession (which has been going on longer than most people realize), the ongoing but sadly polarized Free State Movement (in which Free State Wyoming has the best chance of success, demographically), the quiet expatriation of thousands, primarily to various Central and South American countries, and the more splashy celebrity exits. There are also lots of other "out there" projects that may have difficulty getting past the concept phase, like Paulville, Texas, and Seasteading. But regardless, these are all indicative that people are willing to vote with their feet.

I predict that these trends will continue and that the polarization of world views will become more pronounced and sharply delineated in coming years. You can look for many other exit strategies being publicize. There will also be a lot more "Nien Danke!" legislation like the bill recently introduced in the Wyoming legislature (and about to be introduced in Texas) announced and inevitably enacted. The harder that the Statists push, the harder libertarians will push back. Some say this will lead to Civil War II. I dread that. God willing, we'll see our Constitutional Republic restored peacefully. - J.W.R.

The name "III Citadel" came into the limelight last weekend, when The Drudge Report posted a prominent link to a CNS article by Gregory Gwyn-Williams, Jr.. In a nutshell, a man identifying himself as "Sam III" who is somehow loosely associated with III Arms (a legitimate company, in West Virginia) started a patriot community building project, somewhere east of St. Maries, Idaho. When I first heard about it in November, I made just one short and noncommittal "this sounds interesting" mention in my blog. (A post which I just removed.)

Two days ago I was quite troubled to learn that the main promoter of Citadel III is a convicted felon. (That, according to the SipseyStreetIrregulars blog.)

In the III Citadel web page and blog, Mr. Hyman /Sam Kerodin / Christian Kerodin / Sam Kerillion / Sam Hellesponte / Sam III / Nom Du Jour seems to imply that I've somehow endorsed his venture or that what they are doing fits in with my American Redoubt concept.  I haven't endorsed it, and he is not my buddy.  To the best of my knowledge I've never met, spoken or corresponded with the man. 

For some background, see:

"Citadel." Convicted extortionist's latest con gets huge play on Drudge.

and,

Three-letter frog in Kerodin's pocket? Anecdotes of the Kerodin career. A convicted extortionist. Turns out his real name is Christian Hyman.

Again, I have nothing to do with Mr. Hyman.  My only nexus to him is that he chose a piece of land that is in one of the states that I recommend for relocation. He has apparently tried to capitalize on my name. According to the SipseyStreetIrregulars blog, Mr. Hyman "persuades folks to invest" in the project. My advice: Beware of III Citadel!

In closing, I should point out that III Arms is a separate entity and to the best of my knowledge they are a legitimate and reputable company. - J.W.R.

Mr. Rawles, 
I love the SurvivalBlog site and what you do. Many thanks to you and all contributors! I have some remarks on the letter: A Call to Action: The Impending Weapons Ban, by James M.
I agree on the fundamental points made regarding firearms, but it does sound like a re-hash of the red-herring debate from '91 with the only "Call to Action" being that Congress should ban something else.  Maybe they should ban Murder. Oh, wait that's been done…
 
I personally don't think our Congressional leaders should really be banning anything at all, and when the subject of mental capacity & banning comes up together (within the context of forced medication or incarceration), my main question/concern becomes,….  who gets to determine which of us is mentally ill or unstable?   I already know that everyone is somebody else's weirdo, and apparently we preppers are all completely nuts.  But, on the serious side I have a problem with limiting anyone's rights based on thought crime or any interpretive means where there is no victim (especially where the result would be forced medication or detainment for "potential" criminal activity).

So, an interesting scenario to consider based on my perspective described above.    Let's say some Psychologist/government agent convinces city council or some judge that Christianity is a mental illness.  You are now required by law to take powerful medication that most likely would ruin your quality of life.  That kind of control over anyone's life is a terribly bad idea, because we all know that  it is unethical and wouldn't stop there.
 
I also am getting frustrated with people saying our rights are granted by the Constitution.  That is completely wrong.  Our rights are God given and don't change regardless of what the Constitution says (The document may still fail to list them all in some cases).  It was simply written to generally explain and provide a reminder to elected officials of what the people already have and what cannot be infringed upon.  In the case of slavery and women's rights, I believe it was errant of the original crafters of the Constitution to have not recognized these as inherent rights for all people at that time.  So again, the "document" is just an imperfect representation of what God has already provisioned.
 
"There are certain principles that are inherent in man, that belong to man, and that were enunciated in an early day, before the United States government was formed, and they are principles that rightfully belong to all men everywhere. They are described in the Declaration of Independence as inalienable rights, one of which is that men have a right to live; another is that they have a right to pursue happiness; and another is that they have a right to be free and no man has authority to deprive them of those God-given rights, and none but tyrants would do it. These principles, I say, are inalienable in man; they belong to him; they existed before any constitutions were framed or any laws made. Men have in various ages striven to strip their fellow-men of these rights, and dispossess them of them. And hence the wars, the bloodshed and carnage that have spread over the earth. We, therefore, are not indebted to the United States for these rights; we were free as men born into the world, having the right to do as we please, to act as we please, as long as we do not transgress constitutional law nor violate the rights of others... Another thing God expects us to do, and that is to maintain the principle of human rights... We owe it to all liberty-loving men, to stand up for human rights and to protect human freedom, and in the name of God we will do it, and let the congregation say Amen." - John Taylor, 1882,
 
The best thing for Congress to do in this case is nothing at all.  The only change needed is to allow the free responsible peoples of the USA to provide for their own defense - as was intended by God.  (Current rules apply with regard to all levels of assault, making threats with a firearm, etc.),  which would simply serve to reinforce responsible fire arms use by those who choose to carry.
 
IF, our leaders are serious about the value of a Gun ban, then I suggest they set the example and demand that their personal security force switch to Mace as their primary means of defense.  Lead by example or shut your mouth!
 
IF, a ban is passed we still have options:  Our judicial system was meant to provide protections from such unjust law, so we would still have the Sheriff (elected), Judges (also elected) and the jury (free peoples), who can respectively;  1) refuse to enforce, 2) refuse to try, 3) refuse to convict.  If that message is made clear in local government no State prosecutor would dare bring a case in the first place. [JWR Adds: All Americans should familiarize themselves with the details of jury nullification. This may prove crucial, in the near future.[

“Unjust laws exist: shall we be content to obey them, or shall we endeavor to amend them and obey them until we have succeeded, or shall we transgress them at once?” –  Henry David Thoreau
 
You can only voluntarily give up/refuse to partake of your God given right (or blessing, but you can never ethically take away someone else's (that is infringement/tyranny).
 
Thank you, - D.P. in Pittsburgh

Mr. Rawles,
The Letter Re: Why Civilian Disarmament in the U.S. is Just a Statist Fantasy written by Michael W. is a perfect example of the insidious nature of government over-reach.  They will take our guns the same inexorable way they stole the purchasing power of the dollar. And they will continue to press the gun issue until they succeed - even if it takes a hundred years.  Our inability to recognize and stop the fed over the last century, portends a similar outcome for weapons. - BigTexMarine

Jim:
To make sense of this issue, consider the following in support of the percentage of compliance that can be expected if the Feinstein ban bill is enacted:

This is not The Truth. This is not even 'back of the envelope'.

The following contains a bunch of assumptions, whose justification is feeble at best. Since almost all 'assault weapons' are rifles, I will ignore shotguns and handguns that bother CA.

Suppose, for discussion, that Californians bought rifles (that the state erroneously defines as 'assault weapons') in a number proportional to the share of the US population. Since this is just a guess, might as well use the current value: 37 million of 310 million, 12%. There's no reason to believe this is true - California gun owners may actually buy more or fewer, and the distribution of the kinds they buy may be different from other states or the national average. And the year-to-year proportions may be very different. (I can easily get the CA/US proportion for all the years, but with such poor guesses, there's no value to being more precise.)

And suppose the bulk of those were purchased between 1970 and 2000, when SB 23 did the 'ban by feature'. I picked 1970 because the M16 went into service in 1963, so maybe 1970, just post-Vietnam for a lot of servicemen, would be a good place to start. Years that end in '0' attract the eye.

I cannot easily find import numbers just now, so I'll ignore them; they're no doubt significant with AKs and FALs and HKs and such.
ETA perhaps Bloomberg is not entirely useless. There is a document giving some info on imported rifles here: www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/.../Commerce_in_Firearms_2000.pdf, "Commerce in Firearms in the United States". Imported rifles total a bit under 10 million 1970 - 1999. I suspect I could eventually get the export data by country, but I won't bother.

ATF has the US manufacturing reports on line at the AFMER page. For each of 1998, 1999, and 2000 the manufactured number of rifles was about 1.5 million. Total long guns includes shotguns, and that adds about a million a year, so about 60% of long guns are rifles in those 3 years.

Kleck has numbers from the same source; the 'net addition to stock' for long guns is about 2.5 million per year, 1980-1994, so again, it is not entirely unreasonable to guess that about 40% of those were shotguns. 1970-1979, the numbers were over 3 million per year

So, for 31 years 1970-2000, something like 77 million rifles were manufactured in the US. (Some were exported - let's ignore that detail, too.)

Using that 12% proportion, around 9 million of those might have gone to California [to match their proportion of the national population].

But, what proportion of those rifles were not lever actions and bolt actions and semi-autos that did not meet "Assault Weapon" (AW) standards?

I'm going to make a further guess by using the 1998 AFMER data. Toss out Winchester and Remington and Marlin and Weatherby and Ruger - but not Colt, oh, no! - and guess that most of the rest could have been AW types, and take that proportion. Very shaky, but anyway...

Throwing out those big non-AR-type manufacturers covers about 900,000 - about 60% of the 1.4 million in 1998. Let's use the remaining 40% as the maximum possible proportion of the US production of rifles that might be AW types. That's surely too high a proportion, but for a guess it's a nice even number. (Again, numbers that end in '0'.) (I could look at more AFMER reports, but the recent proportion of AW types seems to me to be increasing, so the more recent data would seem to skew the results even more than I am certain they are already.)

Now, guess how many were 'assault weapons' if California definitions might be applied -- 40% of 9 million rifles in California is 3.6 million. Only 166,000 are known to be registered.

Around 4.5% actually registered might be a supportable number.

With an estimated 10 million total imports, 12% for California is 1.2 million. 40% of those as 'assault weapons' (Too high? Too low? No information!) is 480,000. 166/4,180 is still only about 4% registered.

The massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary was as profound a tragedy as one can imagine; period. In light of this and similar events we need to have a national discussion about the real causes of mass murder. Contrary to what we will hear in the coming days and weeks, guns were not the cause of the Sandy Hook murders. Nevertheless, local, state, and national leaders, lead by California’s Senator Dianne Feinstein, will use this awful event as a rallying call to push for the most serious infringement of our Second Amendment rights ever proposed in this country’s history. They will ignore the familial and societal factors that actually compel these mass murderers to carry out their awful missions. They will ignore the connection between these horrible acts and the increase in the use of prescription psychiatric drugs on our children and youth, reductions in mental health services and incarcerations, increased exposure to violent images in mass media and games, and mandated removal of faith and morality from many aspects of our daily lives. Some of these representatives will be motivated to act out of a legitimate desire to preclude a recurrence of this type of event. Others, like Senator Feinstein, will seek to use this awful event to push long held personal agendas; an incremental step towards completely banning private ownership of the types of firearms which can best effectuate the intent of the framers of our Constitution.

We need to demand that our representatives do something that might have a real effect on reducing the occurrences of mass murder in American society. We must demand that they undertake action to understand the real factors that cause people to do these terrible things and then demand that they have the courage to actually address the root causes of the problem rather than its tragic manifestation. And we must do this without allowing the decimation of our Second Amendment protections.

The primary focus of this editorial is to briefly restate the intent of the founding fathers when they drafted the Second Amendment and then illustrate, with facts, the futility of passing laws regulating firearms and magazines in the hope that doing so will prevent criminal behavior.

Those who will argue for a new “assault weapons” and “high capacity magazine” ban will claim that there is no legitimate “sporting purpose” or self defense need for these types of weapons and accessories; as if sporting or self defense use were the intent of the Constitutional guarantee of our right to keep and bear arms. In its entirety the Second Amendment reads, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” There is no mention of this being a protection of the right to have guns for sporting purposes, or as some will claim, solely for self defense purposes. The intent of the language could not be clearer, the right to bear arms was much more militaristic in nature and was to ensure that the recently acquired free status of the several newly united states, individually and collectively, could be defended against, and not subjugated to, a new tyrannical rule imposed by the creation of a federal government. Thomas Jefferson confirmed this understanding saying, “No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms. The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government”.  More recently the late Hubert Humphrey, not known as a bastion of conservative or right wing political thought, said, “Certainly one of the chief guarantees of freedom under any government, no matter how popular and respected, is the right of citizens to keep and bear arms.  This is not to say that firearms should not be very carefully used and that definite safety rules of precaution should not be taught and enforced.  But the right of citizens to bear arms is just one more guarantee against arbitrary government, one more safeguard against a tyranny which now appears remote in America, but which historically has proved to be always possible.”

That protection against tyranny was the intent of the Second Amendment was acknowledged by the U.S. Supreme Court in its decision in the case of District of Columbia v. Heller. Writing for majority Justice Scalia recited that the history of "[T]he debate with respect to the right to keep and bear arms, as with other guarantees in the Bill of Rights, was not over whether it was desirable (all agreed that it was) but over whether it needed to be codified in the Constitution. Justice Scalia indicated that the founding fathers knew "[T]hat history showed that the way tyrants had eliminated a militia consisting of all the able-bodied men was not by banning the militia but simply by taking away the people's arms, enabling a select militia or standing army to suppress political opponents." The conclusion of the Court was that the Second Amendment's guarantee of the right to keep and bears arms was a personal, not corporate, right; that it guaranteed the right to keep and bear those types of firearms typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes for use in personal defense as well as a deterrent against tyranny.
Those that support a proposed assault weapon/high capacity magazine ban would deny the populace the very civilian arms best suited to fulfill the constitutional intent of the Second Amendment. The AR-15 rifle, which fires a .223 caliber cartridge and is capable of being used with 30 round magazines, is one of the primary targets of any proposed assault weapons ban and is the best selling type of rifle in America today. These and other, similar rifles are owned and used by millions of Americans for clearly lawful purposes. The internationally known firearms and self defense expert, Massad Ayoob, recently wrote in Backwoods Home magazine,  "The cops are the experts on the current criminal trends. If they have determined that a “high capacity” semiautomatic pistol and a .223 semiautomatic rifle with 30-round magazines are the best firearms for them to use to protect people like me and my family, they are obviously the best things for us to use to protect ourselves and our families."

The ban supporters will, no doubt, argue that the loss of this fundamental right is worth the benefit that will accrue as a result of its implementation. They will claim that their restrictions will result in a reduction in violent crime. Evidence worldwide and here at home refutes those claims.

There are two truths that are obvious to me. The first is that laws only proscribe the behavior of law abiding citizens. By definition, criminals ignore the law. Every mass murderer violates numerous laws in the commission of their heinous act and none of those laws stop the horror. Secondly, if banning anything worked, America would be a teatotaling, drug free society and Chicago and Washington D.C. would have the lowest murder rates in the country. We aren’t and they don’t.

I have heard it said that the definition of being crazy is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. There is plenty of evidence that stricter gun laws do not reduce violent crime. Yet more gun control is always the answer when a tragedy like Sandy Hook occurs. 

Each year the Brady Campaign for the Prevention of Gun Violence, an organization " . . . devoted to creating an America free from gun violence, where all Americans are safe at home, at school, at work, and in our communities . . .", ranks states based upon the strength or weakness of their gun laws. The following is a comparison of FBI statistics for the ten states which the Brady Campaign says have the strongest gun laws (the top ten) and those of the ten states with the weakest gun laws (the bottom ten) according to the Brady Campaign. Connecticut, scene of the Sandy Hook shootings, is in the Brady Campaign top ten; ranked fifth in 2011 for having strong gun control laws. The cited standings and statistics are for 2010 or 2011, the most recent information available. The FBI has reported that, in 2011, the violent crime rate in the top ten states was 376 violent crimes per one hundred thousand residents versus 350 per one hundred thousand in the bottom ten. The reported rates for murder and non-negligent homicide, unrelated to the instrumentality causing death, in the top ten states was 4.31 per one hundred thousand population versus 4.15 in the bottom ten states. Focusing just on murder rates for firearm related murders, FBI statistics show that the murder rate for all murders committed with any type of firearm was approximately 2.5 per one hundred thousand residents in the top ten states and 2.4 in the bottom ten. California, which tops the Brady top ten list, has 3.2 firearms murder per hundred thousand. The murder by handgun rate was 2.0 in the top ten states and 1.8 in the bottom ten. Again, the stricter gun control states fare marginally worse than those with weaker gun laws. The only anomaly is found in the murder by firearms other than handguns rate which was 5.1 deaths per thousand in the top ten states and 5.9 in the bottom ten. The obvious conclusion from all of these statistics is that stricter gun control laws do not reduce the rates of violent crimes, homicides, or gun related murders. Equally obvious is that there are other factors which actually cause violent crimes and murders other than the relative ease with which one can or cannot obtain a firearm or the type of firearm that is available. Nonetheless, stricter gun control will be touted as the solution to preventing school shootings. It won't be a solution, simply because gun control doesn't work.

I suspect that ban supporters will also claim that the state statistics are flawed because we don’t have a nationwide firearms ban. But nationwide bans, even in modern western democracies, don’t reduce violent crime. Both Britain and Australia banned most gun ownership, nationwide, in 1997 and implemented buy-up programs. In both societies, violent crime rates rose.
We'll also be told that gun control will work this time because we'll control "assault weapons" and "high capacity" magazines. Again, the historical evidence doesn't support the proposition. This country had an assault weapons ban from 1994 until 2004. While we will hear Senator Feinstein claim that the ban resulted in a 6.7% reduction in murder rates, the study she cites acknowledges that the data is for one year of the ten year period and that the data set was too small to conclude that the apparent reduction was connected to the assault weapon ban. The Brady Campaign says, "Connecticut has strong gun laws that help combat the illegal gun market, prevent the sale of most guns without background checks and reduce risks to children". Despite having strong gun control laws and an assault weapon ban, Connecticut was still the scene of the Sandy Hook murders. Proponents of a new ban will assert that both the Connecticut and 1994 assault weapon and magazine bans were not comprehensive enough; that we need a bigger, broader, more restrictive ban. And besides, we have to do something to protect the children.

Make no mistake about it, Senator Feinstein’s new assault weapon and magazine ban is not about protecting the children. If she was truly concerned about child safety she'd address the real threats to children.  Depending on the information one looks at, during the last thirty years on average, ten to twenty children are killed each year in school related shootings. Yes, each child's death is itself a tragedy. But statistics show that many more children die annually as the result of other causes. Eighty to one hundred children die each year by drowning in swimming pools and spas, one hundred to hundred and fifty in bicycle accidents, and more than two hundred are killed annually at the hands of drunk drivers. Where are Senator Feinstein’s cries to ban pools, spas, and bicycles? Where is the demand that cars be made that preclude their operation by intoxicated drivers? Those cries are inaudible. That is because Senator Feinstein wants to ban guns; end of story. In 1995, in a CBS interview, Feinstein said, "If I could have gotten 51 votes in the Senate of the United States for an outright ban, picking up every one of them . . . Mr. and Mrs. America, turn 'em all in, I would have done it. I could not do that. The votes weren't here."

We have a fundamental constitutional right to keep and bear arms. Once that right is lost we will never ever regain it. And without that right, every other one of our constitutionally guaranteed rights is in jeopardy. Do not allow our politicians to trade that sacred right for the hollow, ineffective promise of reduced crime through a restriction of that right. We must heed the admonition of Benjamin Franklin who said, “Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

James,

The Internet is replete with potential gun confiscation scenarios. Many people voice the opinion that this confiscation will take the form of armed troops going house to house searching for guns. This would be a potential source of revolution, would demonstrate the true nature of government and would result in the deaths of many of the regimes ostensible supporters.
I'll make the assumption that The Powers That Be are not stupid (evil, probably, but stupid, no). Since they are not stupid, and can foresee the difficulties with house-to-house searches, they will use other methods. Let's explore some of these methods.

Before we start that, we should be aware of the massive data gathering efforts that many government agencies have undertaken, and the abilities they have gained, in recent years. I don't think it is unlikely that the government knows, or can know quickly, with varying degrees of reliability, who a majority of gun owners in this country are. It is true that most of
the actual records of who own what are in the form of 4473s in individual gun shops. It is possible for the BATFE and related agencies to swoop down on gun stores and confiscate these records and, while it would take significant effort, convert them to electronic records. These records, when combined with all of the other data and methods that the Business Intelligence community has developed over the years, would create a database of gun owners with a pretty high reliability in my estimation. Even without the 4473s, combining credit card information (remember when you bought those M1 Garand bandoleers with your MasterCard a couple of years ago?), the intact database of background checks, explicit firearm owner databases (as in Illinois), State Police concealed carry information and the plethora of other data stores that exist, a comprehensive set of firearm owners could be put together. It does not have to be perfect! It doesn't even have to be that close. It will be your responsibility to prove that you don't have any firearms, not the other way around.

Now that the government has this information, what should they do? Ship in troops from West Africa and start invading peoples' homes? No way. Firstly, the demonization of gun owners will continue. Unabated. It will intensify and become part of our daily lives. Guns are bad. Gun owners are sick. Mentally ill. Crime is their fault. They endanger all of us. Continuous,
methodical, overwhelming messaging from all corners of the media.

The actual 'confiscations' will begin pleasantly enough. Guns (or some overwhelming subset of guns) will be made illegal (whether by actual congressional bill or executive order, it doesn't matter). 'Take you guns to the local police station and have them checked off the list'. No questions asked. Easy. Many people will simply comply. A letter in the mail asks nicely for you turn in the Ruger SP101 you bought on X date at Y gun store in Z city. Ruger sent it back after a repair to this address in 2008...yada yada yada. More compliance.

When the initial turn in period ends, penalties will begin. More friendly letters in the mail. Fines assessed. Jail time threatened. More compliance. Then, an amnesty. Turn them in, no questions asked. More compliance. Then maybe a so-called 'buy back'. Free gas cards, gift cards, cash. Who knows?

In parallel to all this, of course, are the exhortations to the public to turn in non-compliant gun owners. Turn them in for rewards. Turn them in for reduced prison sentences. Turn them in for a pat on the head. Your civic duty and all that.

See, now that you are demonized in the eyes of the public, and an actual criminal in the eyes of the government, then all of governments resources can be applied to you with impunity. No one except other criminals will stand up for you. And no singular event will affect many people at once, never enough to cause more than a few to take an actual stand. Anyway, who
would you stand up to? Who would you shoot? When a law is passed making it illegal for banks to engage in any transaction with suspected gun owners, what will you do? Shoot a teller when your account is closed and your funds confiscated? Your mortgage called? How about when they assess a fine of, say, $250,000 and require employers to garnish all wages until the fine is paid. You going to shoot someone in HR for complying with the law? What about when Child Protective Services abducts your kids right out of their public school? Your kids go to school one day, then, poof, they're gone. You want them back - no problem - turn in your guns. Electricity turned off at your house? Yup, new law enacted. How long can any of us operate with no income, no bank accounts, while attending to an eviction and attempting to get your kids back? What will you do to get your kids back? Remember, it will be your job to prove that you don't have any guns or ammo. "C'mon, prove it, let us search your house, tell us who your buddies are"....you get the idea.

You see, there are countless ways that the government can make us 'voluntarily' give them up. The pressure will be overwhelming and, given how long they have been considering this, probably much more expeditious than I am making it sound.

In any case, the VERY LAST THING they will try will be the midnight raids. Everyone and anyone will be your enemy before that occurs. There will be no one individual to strike out against. The giant, gray miasma of society will be your enemy. Ignorance, lethargy, apathy. How do you fight that?

And government has all manner of resources, time, people, money, to address this problem.

My two main points are these: First, if the government has people who are even reasonably smart (they do) and they are earnest about solving the problem of identifying gun owners (they are) then the technology to do this should not elude them. Second, busting down doors is expensive, risky and provocative, and they will use all of the tricks at their disposal to avoid it. - Michael W.

I often have SurvivalBlog readers forward me alarmist e-mails, warning of "total disarmament" of the civilian populace. While there indeed may be plans or schemes to disarm Americans, I don't consider these threats credible. Let me explain why: I would conservatively estimate that there are about 316 million firearms in private hands in the United States. Of these, less than 10% are logged in any formal registry. Perhaps another 30% have Form 4473s filed with the FFL dealers where they were first purchased, but that is a fractured mishmash of records with a quite perishable life span. It is notable that we live in a very mobile society, where most families move every three or four years. And in most states, there are no record keeping requirements for secondary sales of firearms. So to call the accumulation of 4473 forms a de facto registration system is laughable.

A Congressional Research Service report provides these details:

The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) reported in a national survey that in 1994, 44 million people, approximately 35% of households, owned 192 million firearms, 65 million of which were handguns. Seventy-four percent of those individuals were reported to own more than one firearm. According to the ATF, by the end of 1996 approximately 242 million firearms were available for sale to or were possessed by civilians in the United States. That total includes roughly 72 million handguns (mostly pistols, revolvers, and derringers), 76 million rifles, and 64 million shotguns. By 2000, the number of firearms had increased to approximately 259 million: 92 million handguns, 92 million rifles, and 75 million shotguns. By 2007, the number of firearms had increased to approximately 294 million: 106 million handguns, 105 million rifles, and 83 million shotguns.

In the past, most guns available for sale were produced domestically. In recent years, 1 million to 2 million handguns were manufactured each year, along with 1 million to 1.5 million rifles and fewer than 1 million shotguns. From 2001 through 2007, however, handgun imports nearly doubled, from 711,000 to nearly 1.4 million. By 2009, nearly 2.2 million handguns were imported into the United States. From 2001 through 2007, rifle imports increased from 228,000 to 632,000, and shotgun imports increased from 428,000 to 726,000. By 2009, rifle imports had increased to 864,000, but shotguns had decreased 559,000. By the same year, 2009, the estimated total number of firearms available to civilians in the United States had increased to approximately 310 million: 114 million handguns, 110 million rifles, and 86 million shotguns.

The sheer number of guns that have little or no paper trail would make it virtually impossible to for any Papa Fidel or Chairman Mao Wannabes to implement a national registration scheme. Americans are quite independent by nature and are unlikely to comply with any universal registration edict. Consider the recent experience in Germany, where a new national registry logged in only 5.5 million guns, while 17 million guns remain un-papered in the hands of refuseniks. Now, if this happened in Germany--where the populace is famous for being sticklers to most laws (except on the autobahnen)--can you imagine the result if this were attempted in the United States? To call it massive noncompliance would be putting it mildly.

The bottom line: Be vigilant and vocal with our elected officials about any proposed legislation, but don't worry too much about the police ever going door to door, looking for unregistered guns. If this were attempted, they wouldn't get very far. I can predict that if Eric Holder ever wants to turn his fantasies of disarming the American people into reality, then he'll have to enlist the aid of every sworn law enforcement officer, every soldier, every prison guard, every park ranger, every dog catcher and every meter maid in the country. But I doubt many of those folks will be enthusiastic, in carrying out unconstitutional orders. So then he'd undoubtedly also need the help of a hundred divisions of foreign troops. My advice to Mr. Holder: Order up plenty of body bags. You'll need them.

Veteran blogger and Appleseed program shooting instructor Bob Owens recently summarized the mathematics of rebellion, quite succinctly: "A nation with just 800,000 law enforcement officers and 3 million active and reserve military personal cannot easily defeat and enslave a free people armed with 300 million firearms, even if large numbers of the police and military didn’t walk away or switch sides to follow their oath to the Constitution instead of any given leader, as many assuredly will."

Reader Jim W. just sent word of horrendous new gun ban legislation in Illinois that is on the fast track to floor votes in the Illinois legislature. These laws would ban most semi-autos and even pump-actions! Magazines that can hold 11+ rounds of magazines would also be banned. I recommend that Illinois residents read the text of the bills, regularly monitor their status, and of course contact their legislators.

For the sake of expediency, I'm quoting from the NRA-ILA web site, verbatim:

It is imperative that you contact your state Senator IMMEDIATELY to express your opposition to House Bills 815 and 1263 and any additional anti-gun amendments.

Among other things, House Bill 815 would:

- Prohibit anyone without a FOID card from using a commercial shooting range, which in many cases would make it impossible to introduce new shooters to the safe and responsible use of firearms.

- Grant the State Police broad discretion to impose design, construction and operation standards that could shut down most commercial shooting ranges.

- Ban possession of magazines and other feeding devices that hold more than ten rounds of ammunition.  A "grandfather clause" would require registration by owners of such devices and give the State Police discretion to impose and charge fees.  Registration would require "proof of ownership" that could be impossible for most people to provide, and even registered owners could not transfer magazines within Illinois, except to an heir or a licensed dealer.  Transfers of "grandfathered magazines" would have to be reported to the ISP.

- Violations of this magazine ban would be a felony.  Failure to report theft or loss of a magazine would be a misdemeanor until the third violation, which would be a felony.

House Bill 1263 would:

- Ban, at a minimum, all detachable-magazine semi-automatic rifles and pistols. Remington 7400 deer rifles, Ruger 10/22 squirrel guns, Glocks, 1911s, etc. This ban would include about 80% of handguns now sold in the U.S.

- Possibly ban all semi-automatic rifles and even revolvers or single-shot pistols with the capacity to accept muzzle brakes or compensators.

- Ban "assault weapon attachments," so possession of a thumbhole stock, a pistol grip, or a fore-end (a "shroud" that "partially or completely encircles the barrel") would be a crime even if you didn't possess a firearm.

- Ban all .50 BMG rifles.

- Contains "grandfather" provisions that would require registration by owners of devices and give the State Police discretion to impose and charge fees. Registration would require "proof of ownership."

-  Create felony penalties for violation of this ban on guns or attachments.

- Create lost and Stolen penalties that would criminalize victims of gun theft.

JWR's Comment: Several gun Illinois manufacturers (such as Les Baer Custom and Springfield Armory) have already threatened to leave the state if gun bans are enacted. They'd of course be welcome here in the American Redoubt.

Here are some details on the proposed gun and magazine ban, directly Madame Feinstein's web site. Also see this PDF.

In summary, the law includes some handguns, it requires nationwide registration, background checks and fingerprinting, even for current owners, just one evil feature-such as a pistol grip--can get a semi-auto banned, and it mentions: "Grandfathering weapons legally possessed on the date of enactment." Does this mean that your heirs must turn in your guns for destruction? Let's wait to see the wording of the bill that is introduced. But regardless, this is definitely bad legislation, so start contacting your legislators! (Thanks to Jim W. for the links.) The following in from Senator Feinstein's web site:

Bans the sale, transfer, importation, or manufacturing of:
120 specifically-named firearms
Certain other semiautomatic rifles, handguns, shotguns that can accept a detachable magazine and have one military characteristic
Semiautomatic rifles and handguns with a fixed magazine that can accept more than 10 rounds
Strengthens the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban and various state bans by:
Moving from a 2-characteristic test to a 1-characteristic test
Eliminating the easy-to-remove bayonet mounts and flash suppressors from the characteristics test
Banning firearms with “thumbhole stocks” and “bullet buttons” to address attempts to “work around” prior bans
Bans large-capacity ammunition feeding devices capable of accepting more than 10 rounds.

Feinstein tosses these measly bones perhaps in the hope of assuaging some boot-lickers:

Grandfathering weapons legally possessed on the date of enactment
Exempting over 900 specifically-named weapons used for hunting or sporting purposes and
Exempting antique, manually-operated, and permanently disabled weapons
Requires that grandfathered weapons be registered under the National Firearms Act, to include:
o Background check of owner and any transferee;
o Type and serial number of the firearm;
o Positive identification, including photograph and fingerprint;
o Certification from local law enforcement of identity and that possession would not violate State or local law; and
o Dedicated funding for ATF to implement registration

Hello Mr. Rawles,
I don't like to bother you, but I would like it if you could let your readers know that if they are wanting to do something to help protect kids/ teachers in schools that don't allow weapons, a gift of a ballistic clip board (from one of SurvivalBlog's advertisers) would be a small step. I have a female teacher friend that accepted the gift to her. I know she's not pro gun, but also know she's pro kid, so I figure this is a fairly inexpensive way to allow some sort of capability of protection in a 'gun free' zone, without having to debate/preach the necessity of using weapons.
Just a thought, and thank you for your time. - Earl

James,
After the Sandy Hook tragedy I got thinking of my own personal security . From limited information in the press the perpetrator came though the window because the doors were locked . After  sending a few rounds through the tempered glass , the glass pulverized and he simply stepped though and started his killing spree . Question , where was the window located ? If it was a side-light to the door then it would be a double paned tempered glass window . Question, if it was a side-light window why no laminated wire mesh? That would have slowed him down trying to bust out the mesh . Was it a standard school window with all it's double paned shards of glass. As you can see so many questions and no answers yet. 

We are a nation of glass . We use glass in our homes ,schools, hospital, offices, but just how secure is glass? Safety glass is not security glass , the very nature of tempered glass makes it poor for security . I just installed two security doors but right next to the doors is floor to ceiling glass, now what do I do. Below is a link to a video of a fellow walking through 15 panes of tempered glass in little over one second each.  As a nation we need a low cost solution to this glass problem.  - Matt in the Evergreen State

I've come to the conclusion that our worst imaginings of Canadian timber wolves (purposefully introduced to the Lower 48 by do-gooder bureaucrats in 1995) might have been insufficient. To those of us who live in the rural west, these land sharks are well known for their fanged depredations on sheep, cattle, deer, elk, and moose. But their greater menace--at least to humans--might actually be in the form of a tiny tapeworm that they carry: Echinococcus granulosus. This tapeworm was endemic with these wolves, long before they were introduced. Tapeworm cysts have been identified in both Idaho and Montana in recent years, and wolves have been confirmed as definitive hosts and the primary vectors.

Take a few minutes to read this: Two-Thirds of Idaho Wolf Carcasses Examined Have Thousands of Hydatid Disease Tapeworms. Also read this summary and a few of its many linked references.

It bears particular mention that this variety of tapeworm is incurable, except by invasive surgery. (Antiparasitical drugs are ineffective.) And even worse, there is no simple test for infection. Only chest-abdomen scans or whole body scans show "hot spots" where the worms have triggered the formation of cysts. Echinococcosis is not pretty. The Echinococcus granulosus tapeworm cysts are mainly found in the lungs and liver. The tapeworms themselves are just a half inch long, but their cysts are large, ugly, and eventually life threatening, especially in mammals with the longest life spans. (Read: humans.) In some cases they can grow in the heart, the thyroid gland, and although rare, even inside bones and in the brain. I would not like them to start breeding inside my skull. Not good.

The life-cycle Echinococcus eggs and worms is insidious and incremental. The eggs can be viably dormant in the soil for up to 41 months. They can potentially become endemic in a wide variety of mammal populations. Here is just one example: In areas where wolf packs travel, the scat they leave in random locations can be handled by mice and rats that are attracted to the hair that makes up as much as 40% of the scat pellets, by volume. (Rodents actively gather hair, for nesting material.) So they bring the tapeworm eggs home, and are infected. Then the infected rodents get eaten by the local foxes, coyotes, wolves, bobcats, lynx, and mountain lions. And, oh yes, your house cat. Then your sweet little kitty leaves moist deposits in your garden raised beds, or in your child's play sand box. Charming. This is sort of like watching the movie Prometheus, albeit with the critter life cycles in extreme slow motion, and on smaller scale.

I am particularly troubled by the fact that wildlife biologists knew that Canadian timber wolves carried the hydatid tapeworms. (It has been well documented since the 1930s, and was studied in detail in the 1950s.) But because of their enthusiasm, the biologist-activists were silent about it and went ahead and supported the wolf introduction plan. There are some sick puppies out there, and not all of them are canids.

The bottom line: Encourage your state legislators to allow wolf hunting and trapping, to reduce the number of wolf packs. And if you live in wolf country, then DO NOT handle the scat of any predators without wearing gloves and a good quality dust respirator. That includes handling feces from your house cat.

One final parenthetical note: Be on guard for anyone who uses the term "reintroduction" for the introduction Canadian timber wolves in the Lower 48. These wolves were not reintroduced. They are in fact an invasive subspecies. The Canadian timber wolf is a larger subspecies of wolf: Canis lupus occidentalis. The Canadian Timber Wolf (aka Mackenzie River Wolf) can weigh up to 170 pounds and travel up to 70 miles per day. Most of the wolves that originally inhabited the Lower 48 that were extirpated a century ago were the 80 to 110-pound Great Plains Wolf subspecies. (Canis lupus nubilus.) This disparity in part explains the rapid decline of the deer, elk, and moose herds in Idaho and Montana since 2000.

Captain Rawles,
Regarding the multiple letters you are receiving on the Nigerian scams, you may want to warn your readers that participation can lead to incarceration. The reader who told his story of USAA bank taking the amount of the fake checks from his account was lucky. Frequently, these scams prey on people who get greedy and suffer the consequences. In many cases, people receive a check (sometimes out of the blue, with no prior email contact) in the mail with a request to deposit it and send back 10% or 25%, etc to an international address (often in Canada). Since the check is normally for a substantial amount ($15,000 to $30,000 is common) greed overcomes common sense and the recipient deposits the check in his account. Sometimes these scams involve overpayment for a purchase or a sad story about trying to circumvent foreign banking laws. In any case, the recipient deposits the check, and maybe sends some money back, or just starts to spend the money himself.

When the check comes back as counterfeit, the bank deducts the amounts from his account and reports the incident to the police. In most states, this qualifies as Forgery, a felony. In my city, most banks spot the counterfeit check during the deposit attempt and calls law enforcement at that point. Although you may be saved from losing money you at least end up with a contact with local police that you wish you had avoided. If you have a criminal history and try to bluff your way through by justifying the check, you might get charged. Even if you end up with a not guilty judgment in the end, you have spent a lot of money, and had your freedom (not to mention your ability to possess firearms) endangered for no return.

In the end, it comes down to this: “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is!” Common Sense and Self Responsibility rule! Please keep up the good work with the blog. I read it every morning. - S.T. in Arkansas

It appears as if there are some new developments going in on the Continent, that unfortunately appear to be old memes being resurrected for the 21st Century.
Let's take a look at the highlights of recent events:

1. Greece continues to have widespread protests and riots as unemployment remains above 25% (25.4%, when measured in August, 2012) and austerity measures continue to be implemented.
2. Spain is in a deep recession, and has been since 2008.  The banking industry in Spain alone could require 60 Billion Euros to remain solvent.
3. Portugal and Italy are in similar straits to Spain and all three are close to emulating the protests, strikes, and general unrest taking place Greece.
4. Germany has provided a foundation for the EU economically but has taken major spending cuts in order to support that activity.
5. Britain, and France have scrapped or idled their capital ships.  In other words Britain and France no longer are operating carriers and have limited power projection capabilities as we saw from the Libyan events.
6. On Tuesday minority members of the Hungarian parliament "urged the government" to draw up a list of Jewish members of the government that might be security risks.

We know that the ethnic melting pot that Europe has never blended well and remains stratified.  There has never been a bending of cultural characteristics and acceptance of differing religious beliefs. Over the centuries the conflicts that have been fought in Europe have at their lowest levels either been about resources, or cultural clashes.  The Balkans have devolved into a set of small "city-states" for lack of a better description, that are essentially cultural enclaves.  Areas in this part of Europe remain a hotbed of ethnic conflict, and have been the scene of genocidal conflict since the end of the Cold War.
In 1984 Sarajevo was the host to the Winter Olympic games.  The city was a shining jewel of modern architecture blended with the "old world".  Nestled in the mountains the area was one that had been unseen by most Westerners until the Iron Curtain had begun to tear and dissolve.  Four years later, civil war in Yugoslavia resulted in massive damage to the city.  The source of this conflict remains today, the ethnic division within this region.

This is not a new conflict as it has its roots far back in history with genocidal atrocities taking place every half century or so. The great experiment that was Soviet Communism and Central planning failed.  In Western Europe over the past 60 years we have seen a trend toward big government, and broad social entitlement programs with the offset being less individual freedom.  This too appears to be a form of government that is producing less than optimal results, as we see Greece, Spain, Portugal, and to some degree Italy on the verge of failure.  We see Germany  trying to support these states to prevent total economic collapse that will result in a flood of refugees to the more prosperous nations, and in turn pull the entire Euro zone into the quagmire.  Governments have made major reductions in their ability to project power.  Whether this is through elimination of capital ships, reduction of air, naval, and ground forces is immaterial.  The bottom line here is that training, maintenance, and knowledge has been lost such that rebuilding these forces in an emergency will be close to impossible.
If the Eurozone were to collapse into distinct nation-states, with varying degrees of domestic strife I think we would see:

1. A rise in the implementation of extreme policies in their governments.
2. A broad rearming / rebuilding of forces. Which in turn will decrease unemployment by providing direct and indirect jobs, as well as shift government spending to the defense sector.
3. An increase in genocidal actions, that is the result of the expulsion of large ethnic enclaves to...someplace.  Where is that place?  Unknown, it could be concentration camps, or it could just be the "anywhere but here approach".
4. As we see point 3 accelerate, we will see the need for stronger border protection to prevent immigration, which may lead to the concentration camp approach.
5. Eventually the nation states of Europe will remember that they really need the other nations for trade because they cannot produce food or goods to support their population.  At this point the situation on the ground has already devolved, and food is scarce, power is scarce, neighborhood level law enforcement will result in some areas being able to maintain some sense of the rule of law.  Many areas will be in anarchy.  I think at this point, if the sense of despair is widespread across the continent we would see historians refer to this as The Second Dark Age.
6. In some regions we will see "strong men" and "warlords" take control and work to exercise age old hatreds.
7. In some regions we might see a charismatic individual strike a chord with the populous that leads to a rapid change in government.  In many respects, the situation in Europe is beginning to resemble that period from 1920 where the National Socialist German Workers' Party was born and began it's rise to power.
8. Stabilization will only occur when population levels and concentrations are reduced to a level that can be supported by the local region.  Then we will begin to see smaller regional governmental units form to support open markets, and defend their resources.  It will be a long way out of that dark time.

Could this tale of gloom and doom spread globally   Absolutely.  Would other factors weigh in to prevent the deepness that my crystal ball foretells   Most likely.  Would we like those other factors?  Probably not.  

What could happen?  Let's see, Turkey could move to unify Muslims in Eastern Europe pushing the western boundaries of the old Ottoman empire into the Mediterranean and Balkan states.  The Vatican would likely have a resurgence in the Catholic Church and push the boundaries of their influence back to the levels held in the 13th and 14th centuries.  The Russian Federation would exploit their large resource holdings to gain political influence in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, eventually taking some level of control of these areas.  Africa will be waiting for someone to come rescue it, as Western aid will all but dry up and there will be anarchy, chaos, and tribal conflict on an epic scale over most of the continent.  This creates opportunity for China, and other nations with global aspirations (Iran, etc.).
I could go on and on but, my crystal ball is somewhat murky and obviously pretty gloomy right now.
These are observations and potential consequences of the situation that we see in Europe.  We can learn much from the recent events in Europe, as well as history.  It is up to you to draw your own conclusions and take the appropriate actions.

For what is worth, my thoughts are:

1. The global economy is fragile.  That will never change, their are too many variables that are driven by human beings that may or may not have altruistic motives.
2. Keynesian Economic Theory is a bust.
3. On the other hand I believe that the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics is valid, and so is Chaos Theory
4. Europe is going to remain unstable for the foreseeable future.  We will see cycles of civil unrest throughout the continent.  The key for governments will be to dampen the cycles over time.
5. There are consequences to actions and policies, in Britain the National Health Care program is a disaster with doctors making decisions to let patients die, from starvation and dehydration rather than care for them.
6. High Tax programs are driving the wealthy out of their native lands.
7. China, Russia, and Iran will not support any programs that the US might put forth to help Europe dampen the chaos that is brewing there.
8. The US is at an inflection point.  The make up of the Congressional and Executive Branches of government have created and adversarial situation that will cause a form of gridlock.  During that period, globally, the US will seem to be adrift.  While we can most likely survive with our foreign policy being muddled and unclear we can only recover from this situation by having a vibrant, market driven economic growth that can be leveraged to provide a foundation for the larger global economy.
9. Budgets are important, and deficit spending is bad.
10. We must pay attention to what is happening to Europe at both the societal level, and the economic level.  The high tax, high entitlement approach to government has had limited success in Europe.  Around the Mediterranean we see the results of what happens when governments are on the verge of failure.  Couple that with the ethnic conflicts that are historical, and endemic in Europe and there is the potential for a serious meltdown of society and civilization.

I will offer you this advice: As you are living through an event it may not seem significant or a turning point in history.  When we look back though, we can see just how pivotal it was.  Trust the "coalmine canary" inside your head, if it starts to tell you something dramatic may be underway, then pay attention.  Keep your eyes on the events in Europe, we may see the same thing happening here in time.

James, 
Another variation to watch out for is when the scammer asks you to pay using an escrow account supposedly managed by Amazon or eBay.
 
A too good to be true add is found, you respond, the scammer/seller tells you he sells using an eBay escrow account. The merchandise will ship to you after you send a check to Escrow. The scammer directs you to a link sent in the scammers/sellers email that appears to be an eBay site.
 
The scammer creates the illusion of security using a brand like eBay with some official looking legal contract showing how you are in control of the escrow and the funds will only be released once you get the merchandise and are happy with the transaction.

 
The reality is once the money is in the escrow account, everything disappears and you never see your merchandise. eBay will tell you they don’t operate an escrow service and your options to recover your money are slim to none. 

 
Your basic rules of thumb, poor sentence structure, punctuation, spelling and vaporware merchandise are all tell-tale signs.  When in doubt, push to see the merchandise live somehow. The scammer will redirect you back to the scam or ignore you since you are not taking the bait. Keep up the good work!
 
Regards, - Mark in Michigan

James,
I wanted to write and give your readers another word of caution regarding Nigerian scammers; my experience involves a much more sophisticated expression of the scam than is normal.

I had placed an ad in Craigslist to sell some Morgan silver dollars; I was emailed by an out of state party who inquired as to whether I would be willing to ship them. Normally this would be odd for a Craigslist ad, but I'd dealt with this several times legitimately with regards to metals trades so it didn't strike me as that out of the ordinary. He offered to send a check, which at the time I didn't mind (now I always require the money to be wired). When the check arrived it was for an amount less than we had agreed on; he told me to go ahead and deposit it and he would send me another check. I deposited the check and waited.

Suspicious about a few things (the email misspellings, the erroneous check amount) I emailed him again and insisted that we speak on the phone. After a little bit of back and forth (he claimed he was deaf) he agreed to let me speak with his lawyer. Soon after an American called from a California area code and assured me everything was ok. This certainly helped set my mind at ease.

During this time my bank (USAA) had confirmed deposit of the check and credited my checking account with the funds. I looked up the depository agreement and found that USAA promised that once funds were in the account for two business days it was a confirmed transfer and the check was good. I'm a bit more cautious, so I waited four business days and then called and spoke with a representative; he looked into the account and confirmed that the funds had transferred from the other bank and that the check had proven legitimate. Now having waited double the amount required by the depository agreement and confirmed from a bank representative that the first check was good and the second check (which had arrived and now been in the account for two business days) was showing good as well; having spoken with an American on the phone who confirmed it was good; I sent the coins.

The next business day USAA notified me that the checks had bounced and withdrew all of the deposited funds from my account; adding insult to injury they tacked on on a small penalty for having deposited fake checks (as if I did it on purpose). Outraged, I spent every business day for the next two weeks on the phone with USAA, demanding that they return the money they had confirmed was in my account; bounced checks were one thing, but once I'd been informed both in writing and in conversation that the money was in my account I expected my bank to stand behind what they had told me. After speaking with two separate resolution managers who robotically repeated: "we don't cover bounced checks" I finally quit calling.

In the meantime I was contacted by the scammer who offered my coins back if I joined him in his scheme. In an attempt to discover any information that might lead me (and thereby the police) to him, I played along as if I were interested. He outlined his nefarious plan: he scammed people in the United States and then recruited them to actually mail the checks (so they came from the US) and do much of the emailing (making the English more believable) and occasionally make phone calls for him (e.g., the fellow who called me); in exchange for their participation he offered them a scam commission and they slowly "earned" back the money that had been stolen from them as they stole from others. All of this information was obtained via internet chat; I took screen shots of all of it as it commenced. I was also able to obtain a list of the next 25 people he planned to scam, along with their email and mailing addresses.

As I played dumb and required more information I was able to glean the contact information for two of his minions and the name and ID information of another. I put together all of the information I had gathered and made an appointment at the nearest FBI station (the police report I had filed with the local police department had been ignored). When I met with the agent I explained the situation and handed over all of the information, highlighting the contact information for the Americans who had actively participated in scamming me. After thumbing through the information, he looked me in the eye and said: "Since you're in uniform, I'll shoot straight with you" (I'm an Air Force officer). "You've given us everything we need to catch at least a couple of these fellows. However, it's your choice," he continued, "I can tell you I'm going to look into it, walk in the back, file it, and never think about it again, or I can hand it back to you and you can walk out the door with it." Flabbergasted, I asked for an explanation. He replied: "Our fraud department is so busy that we don't even look at fraud cases that involve less than $10 million at stake. Your case, as much work as you've done on it, will never be examined." I attempted to explain that with as many folks as this one fellow had scammed it probably totaled $10 million, but he just shook his head and explained it had to happen in a single instance or it wasn't worth their time. Disgusted, I walked out. My tax dollars pay for the FBI but they'll never protect me unless I'm worth more than $10 million? In the end, the only effectual change I could make was contacting the 25 people whose information I'd been given and warn them that they were about to be scammed.

Was I foolish? In hindsight, yes. I now take extra precautions whenever I'm not dealing face to face. However, I think it comes down to the old saying: "Fool me once, shame on me..." I trusted my bank to interact on my behalf in the banking system and was only told after the fact (by one of the resolution managers I was eventually elevated to) that banks reserve the right to withdraw funds from their depositors account for the life of the account; it doesn't matter how much time has passed. I don't know if this is true or not, but two months after all of this went down I received an email from USAA notifying me that the depository agreement for all checking accounts had changed; when I looked at the list of changes, every single paragraph I had cited for how USAA had failed to hold up their end of the agreement had been adjusted. As far as banks go, USAA is among the best I've dealt with, but never doubt that they'll act in their best interest and leave the customer out to dry if that needs to happen.

As far as Nigerian scams go, they can get pretty sophisticated. Once I start dealing with Americans who know how to exploit at least some of the ins and outs of our banking system and will do the calling and emailing themselves, then most of the common rules of thumb for avoiding these types of scams go out the window.

Lessons learned:
- Deal face to face whenever possible. Accept only cash in small, worn bills. Few of us are intimately familiar with what crisp, brand new bills feel like and could be easily fooled by counterfeits. As the dollar inflates and bills began to get newer and less valuable, this is an added incentive to trade using "junk" silver - this is easily verifiable with a value that's easily discernible. Avoid larger denominations of metal; even silver rounds can be faked relatively easily.
- If buying long-distance, ask for proof of life like JWR suggested. However, this still doesn't guarantee they'll send the item once they receive your cash; try to deal only with businesses or dealers that have a legitimate storefront presence and a vested interest in not cheating you. If you know someone in the local area ask them to pick up and ship the item for you; that's putting a face-to-face presence in the mix.
- If selling long-distance, only accept cash via wire (think Western Union). Only ship items once you have literal cash in hand.

Consider this a plug for a libertarian mindset: banks may treat you great until they have to put their own money on the line to back up their word. Police may seem great until they're too busy to help you out. The FBI is great in theory, but don't trust your welfare to a federal agency. Be careful out there. - J.B.

This article bears special mention: Into the vault: the operation to rescue Manhattan's drowned internet Hurricane.

Steve [an acquaintance who is a telephone lineman] wrote to note:

"Having a cable vault under a central office flood is a major disaster in the telecom industry. One splice getting wet is a big job. Losing the entire office brings up comments like I didn’t want any days off this year. Having fixed splices like this that have gotten wet I have a good idea what is involved to fix this. It’s a lot of slow meticulous work. If the damage is only in the splice case and the copper is plastic insulated and not paper then drying and replacing the connectors may be all that’s needed (Two guys around the clock 2 or 3 days). If it’s paper insulated then it’s fish out each pair and replace it across the splice repeat 3,000 times (Two guys around the clock for 5 or 6 days per splice).

Most of these cables will have water under the sheath several feet from the opening which can’t be removed or blown out completely. Eventually this water will rot the plastic insulation on the copper and cause various problems, mostly static that will be intermittent. The only way to fix this is to open up the splices and dry those out. You then cut back on the sheath until you find dry cable or you hit the wall, that’s when you start replacing cable.

They describe replacing the copper lines with fibre optic cables in some of the pictures. The future of the telecom industry is fibre but this will require installing switches at all the customer addresses, no small job in itself. First you have to get a new cable into the building (anybody want to dig up the street in front of every customer because that is where the cable duct lines are). Then you have to find space in the building to place the switch. Building owners are being bombarded with requests for space from all the various telecom competitors for space under normal circumstances and they just don’t have space to spare which they aren’t being paid for. After that it’s time to provide power for these switches. Most of the time you need multiple dedicated circuits and UPS’s for these switches. By the way you think maybe all the electricians might be busy?

Bottom line they have a lot of work to do before they are back to normal. The cost for just this one office could easily reach millions of dollars and if somebody said $50 million I wouldn’t be surprised."

Mr. Rawles:
During the recent Thanksgiving holiday weekend, I drove from my house, to my brother's a mere 270 miles, a mere 4 to 4-1/2hrs drive. With accidents and construction, it took almost 8 hours. And it was in both directions, North and Southbound. I was perplexed at the mass confusion, weaving in and out, driving over medians to get to the access/frontage road to get ahead of others, only to find out that that road went off in another direction or dead ended.
 
Coming home on Sunday I saw 15 accidents in a 20 mile stretch, one accident involving six cars in a tailgating fender bender. Most others were 1-2 cars, or single run off the road flat tire accidents.
 
This was under a 'holiday' weekend Wednesday and Sunday. What is going to happen when these folks are 'bugging out' like they hear on television? And if there is a real emergency? Where are they going to go if everyone along an Interstate Highway is bugging out at the same time? All points of the compass are going to be a parking lot within 10 miles of any major population center. Then What? Everybody gets out and walks? They wouldn't make it 100 yards before collapsing.
 
I don't think I can last long enough to get a piece of property and make preps, outside from the city. So I am trying to prep on site, until after the wave flows over us. I fear the European crisis and the Middle East war expanding. It is coming like a freight train and I can't get out of the way.
 
Now I am talking economic collapse that disrupts government involvement, transportation and food distribution/jobs/civil war/ or some other catastrophe other than natural, like Superstorm Sandy, where the infrastructure is destroyed.
 
Am I being 'prudent' in assessing the situation? I am stocking up on food and weapons and working on my concealed handgun license and range time. I won't give you my list of weapons as I value OPSEC, but I have enough in each category home defense, short battle rifle, long range rifle and a mixed bag of other rifles, including an assortment of pistols. It's not an 'arsenal' to outfit an army, but it's enough for me for now.
 
If we lay low, until most of the shock wears off, and see what happens, we'll be okay for the most part.  I need to get a genset for power and other essentials, but I am headed that way.  Thanks for all you do. but this is my quandary that I can't get my head around. - Mr. Wickey

JWR Replies: I must begin by reiterating a regular theme: I strongly recommend relocating and living year-round in a lightly-populated farming region, if your work and family situation allow it. The "hunker down" approach will probably suffice in most situations. But in a grid-down societal collapse--when law and order is not restored within a few weeks--your chances of survival will drop off to near nil, if you stay put in a metropolitan region. Granted, the odds of a such a collapse in any given year are very small, but the consequences would be dramatic. A grid down collapse will very likely trigger a massive die-off. In this event your chances of survival would be relatively high in places like The American Redoubt, but pitifully low in the big cities of the northeastern United States.

Mr Rawles,
I’ve read and enjoyed each of your books, and I am an avid prepper -- it’s only a matter of time before we have an economic collapse.  However, I am having trouble connecting the dots between a collapse and the loss of the power grid.
Can you help me here, please?  How does an economic collapse translate into the loss of the power grid?  If I can fully understand this, I will prepare for the event by purchasing a biomass gasifier for my generator.

Thanks, - Richard M.

JWR Replies: The main triggers would be a disruption of rail traffic (that would idle coal trains, which currently move hundreds of millions of tons of coal each year) or if power utility employees fail to show up for work. I can foresee four reasons why electric power utility workers might not show up for work in the midst of an economic collapse:

1.)  The employees aren't paid regularly. (Due to a banking crisis or currency crisis.)

or,

2.) The U.S. Dollar becomes worthless, due to hyperinflation. (And hence, the employee paychecks become worthless.)

or,

3.) A nationwide gas and diesel fuel shortage keeps power utility employees from commuting to work.

or,

4.) There are riots, looting, and massive street crime. Under those circumstances many utility workers won't feel safe leaving their families at home, unprotected.

If there is insufficient staffing, power plants will shut down and the nation's three power grids will collapse. Nuclear power plants will be among the first to go offline, since NRC regulations require nuke plant shut downs if staffing drops below a fairly high threshold. The last to go will probably be hydroelectric plants, since their staffing requirements are minimal. (The prevalence of hydroelectric power is yet another reason to move to The American Redoubt.)

Mr. Rawles,
 
I'm currently trying to do a cogent analysis of the lower 48 and where my optimum safety location/region might be. I've read your articles on the great redoubt, rankings and ratings etc... I can respect your criteria and agree with most of it. The question that I'm pondering however, is that in a serious SHTF scenario, how will mass migrations occur. The "head for the hills" mentality will motivate millions to escape die off zones desperately seeking life's basics. I agree that in a scenario of seriously "grid down", a great many Americans will die. In contrast to your "Great American Redoubt"  however, I would posit the following; 
 
1. Logistically the "Redoubt" is challenged. From a foraging standpoint, there are precious few distribution points, raw materials or other commodities stockpiled. 2., The population density, while generally fewer than 50 people per sq. mile, will suffer from a lack of abundant skill sets in "post event industrialization". 3. While agriculturally strong, the Redoubt lacks basic transportation infrastructure to economically drive it in a post event scenario. Primarily a sustenance existence with localized bartering.
 
As an assumption, mass migrations will occur primarily from urban to rural, I'm thinking that most folks will look to their neighboring "mountains" as eden. Meaning that most folks in New England would probably be inclined to migrate to Vermont or Maine. (The nearest "perceived sanctuary".)  Folks in the mid-Atlantic will hit the Blue Ridge or middle Appalachia--south eastern to Georgia/Alabama Appalachia. I realize what I'm speculating is just that but the underlying psychology of terrified sheeple seeking quick gratification I believe, supports my theory of regionalized migration patterns.
 
Based on the 2010 census county population data, I'm starting to believe that southern Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas might end up fairly well. The large population centers will have exhausted themselves before they breach to deeply into the rural areas of these states. The road networks, outside of the freeways, allow themselves to be easily blocked and the terrain suitable for extended blockades of key choke points. Population densities in these areas average about 50 people per square mile. High enough to have a good bullpen of expertise, low enough to feed off the excellent farmland and growing seasons and also deep in folks that know how to hunt and fish. Added to this is are other points, such as many stockpiled warehouses and transportation hubs, abundant fresh water, mineral reserves, natural gas and oil. In a totally "grid down" situation, these factors, at least to me add up to the positive.
 
I am new to prepping but have always been an avid camper, hunter and fisherman. I'm a Navy vet, good marksman and Christian man, though not as devout as I should be. I love my country and what it stands for, or used to stand for. I ask for your opinion on my analysis. I know how busy you must be and should I not hear back from you, rest assured that you have an avid fan of your books and precepts!
 
Kind regards, - John T.

JWR Replies: To begin: urban "foraging" is just a polite term for looting. (Here, I'm not talking about true foraging, for wild edibles.) Urban "foraging" would be conscionable only in near extinction-level catastrophes, where many properties (buildings with intact contents) are left truly abandoned and without rightful heirs. But don't plan on that, since the chances of such an event are very small.

I'm aligned with the geographical determinist camp, in both history and predicting future outcomes. (Although some new transformational technologies such as large scale desalination plants, inexpensive photovoltaics, and perhaps even seasteading may make my determinist stance less firm.) In general, geography and climate have shaped human settlement patterns and in many ways they will shape future events. The core risk in a grid-down collapse will be directly proportional to population density. Think of it this way: during a full scale societal collapse the actuarial risk of having a high velocity lead pellet pass through your chest cavity or brain box on any given day increases with the population density of your locale. There will simply be more starving people with guns surrounding you in cities than there will be in the hinterboonies. While geographic isolation is not a panacea, it certainly beats the odds of hunkering down in the Big City and hoping to persevere to the far side of a massive population crash, with the intent of "foraging", post facto. That would be Armchair Commando naiveté, at its worst.

You might feel comfortable with 50 people per square mile, but I do with five people per square mile.

In my estimation, after the first winter without grid power and pressurized natural gas pipelines, virtually everyone north of the 40th parallel (north) who feels the need to bug out will head south, to warmer climes.

Most of the colder climate regions such as the Inland Northwest and Michigan's Upper Peninsula will not be see any substantial in-migration. Exceptions will include Vermont and Maine, they will likely face temporary in-migration from both New York and from the heavily-populated Montreal region.

If the grids go down and stay down, then I expect population die-off ranging from 15% to 90%, depending on local population density. The highest losses will be in urban centers in the northeast. The lowest losses will be in the Inland northwest and the more lightly populated portions of the southeast. But even southern metropolitan centers like Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas/Fort Worth may suffer 60%+ population losses--and notably not from cold weather. Those will mostly be losses from instantaneous lead poisoning.  

After the second winter, we will see an entirely transformed society.  It will be a harsh existence, at least for the first decade.

The ideal solution is to relocate well in advance of any collapse to a lightly-populated farming region that enjoys reliable annual precipitation for growing row crops. (In the west, these are called dryland farming regions.) It should be a region that is well-removed from major population centers. There, you should look for a property with spring water or shallow well water that is geographically isolated from the natural lines of drift that refugees and looters will follow. The key phrase for your property search: "On a side road of a side road.") See my Recommended Retreat Areas web page for further details.

It was not happenstance that I set my first novel Patriots at the eastern edge of the Palouse Hills region. But the Palouse grasslands are not unique.

Relocate, stock up, and team up!

The rustling came again from the back of the shotgun-style apartment. Was it squirrels? We had a few of the little gray buggers living in the trees around us and they made quite a racket. I assured my wife via text that a squirrel wouldn’t come through our window screens.

She got up and looked into our bedroom just to make sure and saw a head and back sticking through about half way onto our bed. Letting out a blood curdling yell, she screamed and ran towards the window as the perp backpedaled out and ran off down the alley. Slamming the window, she called me at work, had me call 911, and waited for the police who quickly arrived on the scene. Everything worked out well in this case. The guy, homeless, was arrested within half an hour and booked on an outstanding bench warrant and for burglary. He plead guilty and did time for misdemeanor trespass.

We live in St. Louis, a city known for crime, and at the time lived in an area which is well on its way to gentrification. Still, on the edges things were a bit spotty. Case in point our apartment where across the alley stood what we later found out was a house central to the local heroin trafficking market. Over in our ground-floor apartment, we didn’t know that. All we could tell is that it was pretty busy with high school age looking kids most days.

The week of the robbery, we were moving in having just gotten married and hauled my wife’s stuff in from out of state. We had boxes all over the place and they were still there the week after the honeymoon. We also didn’t fully realize that our landlord had left the master keys to our apartment building on the front porch the week I was gone to the wedding; someone had already been inside to case the joint and steal my Glock.

It was the perfect setup for a burglary or robbery. Our apartment was at the end of the road by a busy intersection and was beside the major footpath connecting our road with the alley and the road behind it. Many folks walked that path daily to cut the corner and some would stop and sit in the chairs in our back yard enjoying the shade. It was hot, above the century mark for most of the previous month, and everyone had their windows open…especially those of us trying to move. Out back, we had a pile of boxes stacked in and around the dumpster. The inside of the house was such a mess that I wasn’t even sure if my gun had gone missing. And, worst of all, our land lord, experiencing the early stages of Alzheimer’s left the keys out for the taking.

There are so many things that went wrong which set us up so well to be the target of Maurice that day. Each one is something that is small in itself, but when added up, can in the blink of the result in horrible things. Everyone survived that day and although traumatized, my wife and I have come away better for it, I believe. The important thing is that our experiences be used as a lesson for others. Being newlyweds and just starting off in a new city in a cheap apartment is no excuse to allow your safety or alertness to be compromised.

Situational awareness, or the act (or art?) of being alert to your surroundings in a way that allows you to react appropriately is not one of the sexy parts of prepping. However, it is one of the most important. It is a skill that needs to be both practiced and utilized daily. Situational awareness can be seen on numerous levels of time scales. In our case, we were moving into a new apartment and we needed to practice both short term and long term situational awareness. This article will examine both of these in detail providing some general ideas on how to better prepare yourself. Each situation is different and every second changes your individual needs. Use this as a guide and build up your own system depending on what your life requires. Remember to keep alert for any need to change your system. Don’t wait for a failure to revamp; you might not get the chance.

Long-term Situational Awareness
Long-term situational awareness deals with things that are not an immediate threat. In these days of collapsing culture and declines in neighborliness it is even more important to know your neighborhood and those who live near you. Our neighborhood had an online email list as well as regular meetings. We utilized these fairly well and we knew that there was a crime spree in the neighborhood. Unfortunately, there was not enough data before the week of our robbery for even a map-geek like myself to pinpoint the source of our problems. Interestingly, within a few weeks of our break-in, the crime spree focused around a few blocks of us and the correlation was painfully obvious, even to a casual observer. Find out, preferably before you select a place to live, where the problem areas are. Get updated on the neighborhood situation before you even move. The same applies to areas where you work or often frequent. Prior planning is a good thing.

Once you’re in place, keep an eye out on neighborhood traffic. We probably could have spotted people who didn’t belong if we had been more attentive. I should have especially noticed that people walking by our windows had an easy way to look inside and make sure to make that impossible for them and also to deny them access to the chairs in our yard. With them being moved often, I did not think anything of it when one of them was moved under our bedroom window just hours later to be used to vault up into our life.
Most importantly, don’t let your awareness get displaced by something like moving. When you are moving, you are perhaps at your most vulnerable. Trips to and from the moving van provides anyone around a perfect view of everything you are moving and a good idea about where you are putting things, even if all of your blinds are shut. With doors open and air conditioners useless, windows being open in such heat are very tempting. However, this just adds to your advertisement power!

Short-Term Situational Awareness

Short-term, or immediate, situational awareness, is what most people think of when they hear the term. This is not paranoia, it is remaining alert for any potential threats and mounting your guard accordingly. In his book Combatives for Street Survival, Kelly McCann discusses the effects of a surprise attack on the victim: loss of fine motor skills, shaking, tunnel vision, rapid heart rate, etc. These responses make dealing with any threat more difficult, which is why Kelly stresses the importance of seeing the attacker before any attack can happen. As McCann notes, many times just making it clear that you are aware is enough to deter an attack. This is where your short-term situational awareness comes into play.
There have been many systems developed to help people logically process one’s situational awareness in a systematic way. Jeff Cooper’s color code, which he introduced in his classic Principles Of Personal Defense is an easy system to use in today’s world of TSA rainbow threat levels. Cooper’s color code is in essence a categorizing of a person’s mental state (roughly alertness/preparedness) given their ability to respond to various potential threats. The code is as follows:

• White: You are walking down the street with ear buds in, music on, looking down to text. Basically, you are blissfully unaware of anything going on around you and you are in total denial that anything bad may happen to you. Stress, tiredness, and intoxication all help push you towards this level.
• Yellow: Often described as “relaxed alert,” this is the level where one should strive to be at even the “safest” times. There is no observed or suspected threat, but you are alert to your surroundings and are minimizing distractions.
• Orange: At level orange, you are on alert. You have spotted a potential threat and are ensuring that the source of this potential threat has your attention. At this point, should the potential threat become a real threat you move to level Red. Should the potential threat show that it is not a threat, you will return to level yellow. For example, you are walking along and a dog starts growling at you. Were it to charge you, threat level red comes into play. Were you to notice that it is chained and behind a solid fence, threat level yellow may be your choice.
• Red: The potential threat is now a threat. Actions must be taken to nullify that threat. “Fight of flight” is in play and it is likely that things will get ugly.

Col. Cooper’s system does not directly translate into a system for situational awareness, rather it alerts you to the most important element of surviving a threat- your mental state. No matter how good of a shot you are or how “tacticool” your carry weapon is, if you are caught by a mugger at level white awareness…well, you’ve got a big hole to dig out of at best. Evaluation of your mental state using Cooper’s system (or another that you prefer) should become second nature. It should be a process that runs quietly in the background allowing you to focus more on potential threats and how to deal with them.
Using the example of our break in, let’s walk through how this works using the clarity of hindsight to see what should have happened. Given the presence of known criminals and a drug house, my alert level should have been at a level yellow when my wife and I left the house that morning. Walking to the car, I should have been scanning the house for broken basement windows, “self-walking furniture,” moved plants, loitering strangers, etc. I would have noticed that a chair was placed under our back window and gotten suspicious and moved it, thus denying entry to our windows.

To this day, I do not know where our robber was, but I suspect that he could see us getting in the car and driving off, but couldn’t see that my wife re-entered the house a short time afterwards having walked back from a coffee shop. This means he was somewhere in back of the house (where our cars were). Could I have noticed him? Maybe. Perhaps he was inside the drug house? Regardless, lines of sight work both ways, if he could see us, we could have seen him.

Let’s say I had spotted him standing watching us behind the drug house in the alley as we drove out. He posed no direct threat to us, but he was out of place. I’d be moving my mental state to orange. Driving back around the block and calling the cops in the process giving them his description would likely have sufficed in this case, he had a bench warrant outstanding and wouldn’t have stuck around long if the police showed up. With the potential threat gone, I would return back to yellow.

While looking for potential threats is a topic that would never be completely covered no matter how much ink is spent on it, there are some key points to remember. First, your situation is unique. Much of situational awareness is intuition and gut feeling. If it feels wrong, don’t. It’s much better to be wrong and leave a non-threatening situation needlessly than it is to go against your gut and wind up dead.

Secondly, if you see someone who doesn’t seem to have a reason to be some place, be careful. McCann demonstrates this by using the example of a guy standing in the middle of the parking lot just looking around with no keys out. What’s he doing there? Most people who lose their cars have their keys out and this guy doesn’t even look too confused. This rule can be expanded in any number of ways. Another example: unless you’re a kid playing hide and seek, most people don’t have a very good reason to be hiding behind bushes. Trust your gut and use common sense.

Third, be on the look out for bottlenecks and cover. Most of us do not daily have to worry about armed ambushes. However, criminals like to take advantage of situations which make their job of jumping you easier. The old “dark alley” adage applies here. So does the “don’t be foolish, trust your gut” theory.

Lastly, be aware of how you present yourself. People at level white are obvious to spot (for a fun exercise, go out on the street and count how many people you see who are clearly at level white) and make great targets for crooks. It’s also very easy to make it clear that you are not at white. Why take a hard target when there are so many easy fish out there? That’s the crook mentality. Most of the time, they would prefer not to have to work…that’s why they’re involved in crime in the first place! Walk with purpose. Don’t have your arms full if you don’t have to. Don’t be distracted. Make it clear you’re not a tourist (even if you are). Give off an air of confidence and alertness. It is always better to avoid a confrontation than to have to win one the hard way. This one simple step almost certainly is the one thing that keeps more people safe than anything else.

Situational awareness is clearly a subject about which much has been written and all of us could improve each day of our lives. It is a skill which is improved with exercise and one on which there are many views out there. I don’t feel that any view is mutually exclusive of the others. In this article I have presented Cooper’s color-based system of mental states because it is easy to remember and makes sense to me. There are certainly others. The US Government uses a system known as TEDD (Time, Environment, Distance and Demeanor) which is discussed in an article at STRATFOR: “Threats, Situational Awareness and Perspective.” There is also Col. John Boyd's OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) loop. For further information on this topic, I would recommend, in addition to the works already mentioned the following sources:

• “A Primer on Situational Awareness” (Stratfor)
• “How Police Training Can Help The Survivalist: An Officer's Perspective” by N.D. (SurvivalBlog) - good discussion of reading threats
• Female Self Defense: Situational Awareness (Survival Cache)
• Situational Awareness (Self Defense Blog)

Home defense is about more than a shotgun or that security system and decal. It is a part of our lives that requires active participation on our part. With the lingering depressed economy, raging drug problem, and criminals with no respect for life, it is a sad fact that we must face this reality. Best of all, these key steps to home defense are free; it only takes a few seconds and alertness. So, for those readers who live in urban areas especially, take some time to reassess your security strategy. Do not let yourselves grow complacent, even if you have a security system. Let our lessons learned the hard way be an example to get you thinking so that something similar doesn’t happen to you. Oh, and if your landlord starts leaving keys out, move.

About the Author: B.D. lives with his beautiful new bride in St. Louis where they are expecting their first child in May.

JWR,
I don't live anywhere near the affected area from Sandy, but now that we've had some firsthand accounts, I wanted to throw in my $.02 as an observer from afar:
When the storm hit, I defaulted to the main stream news channels and sites, which got old and repetitive quickly without being very informative.  To get a better feel for the local perspective, I resorted to my smart phone's 5-0 police radio app.  By bouncing around and listening in on the various police, fire, and EMS dispatch feeds from Northeast counties and cities, I was able to get a better feel for the ground truth around the region and was also able to learn how "the authorities" prioritized their response to various incidents.  

The first thing I will mention is that government at all levels is better prepared than most citizens.  They have survival plans so that they can maintain operation, but that does not mean they will maintain services to citizens.  This is probably obvious to most readers here, but I thought it was important to mention that the government is heavily invested in the survival business.  They just won't put it in those terms.

The second thing I noticed was that mobility was severely limited for everything but foot traffic.  Sometimes fire trucks could not respond to calls a few blocks away because of downed trees, water, and live power lines in the streets.  Later on, some response vehicles who were isolated from their stations were taken out of commission because they simply ran out of gas and could not get back to fill up the tank.

The third thing I noticed was that looters were the lowest priority during and immediately after the storm.  Responders called in suspicious characters from time to time, but most were too busy clearing roads, putting out fires, and fixing power line hazards to deal with looters.  This makes sense when you consider that loss of life from fires and downed power lines is more important than the theft of Mr. Jones' big screen television.

I did hear one interesting call:  I don't remember what city, but a fireman noticed three people walking in the storm wearing camouflage [uniforms].  I don't know who they were, but they were immediately considered a threat.  If they were preppers, they need to learn to blend in.  If they were looters, God bless them for putting a big police target on their own backs.

One final observation.  This was not WWIII, and it would take something much bigger and of longer duration for things to degrade to that point.  Many amateur preppers put a disproportionate emphasis on armaments, and then when disaster strikes, they lack basic creature comforts and have to go primitive or bug out.  After Hurricane Sandy, which would you rather have had: a $2,000 tricked-out battle rifle or a decent generator and 50 gallons of gas?  From what I've seen and read from afar, thanks to the lack of roving mobs, security during Sandy could be as easily maintained with a .38 Special revolver or even a baseball bat.  After all, what's the point of being prepared for the the zombie apocalypse if it means you suffer more during less severe disasters?
Thank you James for running a site where normal people can find and share reasonable, balanced information on preparedness.

God Bless, - Robert in Texas

James,
A local surveillance camera [in Albuquerque, New Mexico] caught this stabbing incident.  There are lots of lessons here, but I'd point out three: 1--the attack was quick, with no warning and no known reason, and 2--the victim fought back as best as he could, probably saving his life as the attacker was trying to stab him again and 3--"smoke shops" should be avoided. - Scott B.

Sure we’ve watched  the  new television series Revolution, with their heroine and her post-SHTF world amazingly perfectly coifed hair-do. The series based loosely on an end of the world  scenario built around a “Sudden” abrupt change” a la the Dies the Fire novel series [by S.M. Stirling]. All power suddenly goes poof, and nothing electrical works, society collapses, and we’re all back to the age of bow and arrow, knives, and, weirdly deviating from the Dies The Fire premise, good old black powder front-stuffing rifles. Militias, which are all always portrayed by Hollywood, as evil, dictatorial, and brutally repressive, run the country, which has broken down into “serfdoms” in a giant feudal system.

On the other hand, there’s the somewhat realistic TEOTWAWKI scenarios that revolve around, pick one: A comet, asteroid or other huge space body smashing into the earth, an EMP or thermonuclear exchange, explosively fast spreading viral pandemic, or some mysterious alien military force attacking the planet, or the simple world economic currency meltdown.

These all propose, and assume, a sudden, rapid world-wide calamity rendering large cities places of mob rule, fire-ravaged, food-looted wastelands of desolation, forcing us who’ve prepared ourselves and our homes, into hunkering down to await hordes of refugees ascending upon our rural retreats like a Biblical plaque of  locusts. The local law enforcement authorities, and maybe the federal military and Homeland Security goons absent, or forcing us to live under an imposed  version “Martial Law”.

What if the end of the world as we know it, arrives like the proverbial frog getting slowly boil to death in a pot of water-scenario?  What if we see the currency, over a period of weeks, months, or even years, slowly erode, inflate, deflate, or simply disappear, and be replaced once, twice, or three or more times, with other currencies, like in post-WWI Weimar Germany?

What if, God help us, Obama gets re-elected, maybe by hook, or by crook, and our Constitutional rights are taken away one by one, or all at once. Cities, counties, and/or individual states can’t maintain their basic road, public work, water, electricity ,or other technology that powers our infrastructure. Things stop working, break down, employees quit because they don’t get paychecks anymore, or their paydays shrink, and they all decide, one by one, to go home, plant a garden, fish or otherwise feed themselves and their families by themselves.

What if, and just maybe, things take a slow spiral regardless of the scenario, down into an abyss of one of the afore-mentioned scenarios, and not an abrupt calendar-marks-the-day event?

I believe that we can carefully observe just what is happening in the EU countries, and draw information, knowledge, and even hope from what those countries are going through right now, to guide our preparations on an adjustable basis.

We need to scour news sources for Intel, and plan for contingencies here in America, as they inevitably follow, in some ways closely, in some ways not very similarly, what is occurring in Greece, Spain, Italy and the Irish Republic.

I see in the United States, a pattern of behavior, brought, and almost bred into our culture some differences that set ourselves apart  from what may occur in Europe and other second and third world countries. However better organized, culturally superior, or due to the same spirit (2)
that allowed America to gear up, build up, and suit up, and win WWII, we stand a way better chance of applying knowledge from observing the inevitable mistakes, or tragic errors the EU governments make to keep our country from the same fate.

Say for instance, Romney gets elected President, the economy stops the slide down hill, some manufacturing coughs to a slow forward push, the dollar is stabilized by reverting partially, or by a full reversion, to the gold standard, and American finds some small reserve of braking power in our countries slide towards that economic “cliff.“

Further speculation might be that the economy continues plodding along, joblessness slows,
gas and food prices fluctuate, but still continue to plummet. States and municipalities see a worsening of their infrastructures, and power supplies fluctuate, becoming more and more unreliable. Some folks see the water quality of public utilities eroding, and many drill wells on their property and yards. Chickens and goats start becoming the standard homesteads’ yard fixtures. Maybe, we all start turning our yards into gardens, relying less and less on the supermarkets and grocery stores. The dollar continues to lose its value, and barter, and hard currency, silver, and to some extent gold, become the mode of payment.

We all stop the annual huge Christmas gift buying sprees, and even birthdays and anniversary gift-giving becomes a thing of the past. The police departments, and sheriffs offices responses become sporadic, and people start going “heeled”, and taking a more pro-active vigilant look at their neighborhoods safety. Gangs do become an issue, and Homeland Security does man checkpoints across the country, maybe to quell the movements of these organizations, and we like that.

My point is, that given the observable course, and actions that the citizens of Greece are taking, sans the rioting, we might just  find the end to morph into that scenario. Speaking of civil unrest, aside from some nasty potentialities in most of our urban cities, I don’t think that Americans will tolerate, or allow the kind of rampant rioting and disorder one saw in Greece. That’s just not how our culture acts as a whole. We’re not the kinds of folks one see’s in footage in the middle-east, after an IED or car bomb goes off. There we see hordes of wide-eyed screaming people jumping atop the car parts, and running crazily through the crimes scenes willy-nilly.

I still see folks in the post office, standing well back of the counters, observing an imaginary line painted on the floor, not wanting to appear rude to the folks ahead of them buying stamps. I see our local volunteer fire departments organizing CERT teams and training like crazy across the country, planning to help in the event of an unforeseen natural, or whatever, type of emergency.

I read, and pour over news accounts every day dealing with the European monetary, and banking crisis, and I haven’t seen yet, the total  rapid TEOTWAWKI slide into cannibalistic, zombie over-run catastrophe that we’ve all read about being a surety.

I firmly believe that we can take a measure, however small, and optimistic, of comfort from watching the EU meltdown, and steering our plans accordingly. Call me a skeptical optimist, but I am garnering a bit of hope from observing what the common citizenry are doing in those countries, where the cliff edge has zipped by, and are dealing with the food, fuel, and other shortages.

I would like to see the readers of SurvivalBlog in the EU countries affected, start posting their own personal accounts so we can plan our own strategies her in the United States. I hope that measures can be taken by folks here, who read this blog, to keep the information highway from those regions flowing.

Clearly, even though we might all agree that the pessimistic timeline of End Time prophecy is probably correct as it relates to the economy, that Gods’ providential working in our countries affairs can spread out the inevitable end-time scenario into many more months, and maybe years.

Hopefully we all can read, research, and gather information from news sources, friends and family living abroad, in order to more effectively prepare for hard times, and even the worst-case scenario of  TEOTWAWKI.

I believe that our Heavenly father has, and is providing a way through the Internet, and it’s sources, of sparing us some measure of downright hopelessness, and giving us tools to both save our friends, family and ultimately our nation, from Satan’s’ evil plans. This provision is the ability we have of watching Europe, and making better plans for our families safety.

Good Day, James,
First – have greatly enjoyed your blog site and your novels. I particularly appreciate the fact that although the stories are fiction – they provide a wealth of preparedness information. As a principle in Power Research Inc. – a company with extensive international sales to the commercial marine and power generation industries – I have deeply investigated the world economy and our present financial system in an effort to protect my company, my family, and my employees. There is absolutely no question that the present system is unsustainable, and the ramifications of an economic collapse will be severe. I have made my own preparations and have encouraged my employees, little by little, to do the same. My personal take is – based on cycles – a rapid acceleration of the present crisis is likely in the 2014 and 2015 time frame. We’ll see. As to the extent and severity of the collapse, only Our Father knows.
 
Secondly – I am glad to see that you have addressed the issue of long-term fuel storage. Interestingly, more than half of emergency generator failures during a crisis can be directly attributable to degraded fuel. This was  found to be the case post-Katrina. The product STA-BIL that you reference in your writing, will, in fact, stabilize gasoline and diesel fuel. But bear in mind this is a “consumer” type product – designed with strength only sufficient to extend fuel life 6-to-12 months. The active ingredient in this product is actually in a very small concentration.
 
We manufacturer PRI-D and PRI-G for diesel and gasoline respectively. While we largely sell these products to the industrial market, we also have made them available to recreational boaters and RV enthusiasts through several hundred outlets nationwide. The chemistry we offer in our consumer package is in the same strength we provide to industrial users – users that include nuclear power facilities,  and countless thousands of entities that store fuel for emergency power generation.  These products have also found a popular following among those of us in the “prepper” community. On average, one dosage will keep fuel fresh for about five years – sometimes much longer. We have had some fuels in storage as long as 12 years – and they are still refinery fresh. As a side note – even kerosene for lamp oil can deteriorate, so it is also of critical importance to treat these fuels as well.
 
Bear in mind that fuel stability is dependent on a number of factors. First is refinery processing – which can change day to day. The stability of a fuel produced one day can change the next owing to minor adjustments in feedstock and refinery processes. Second is storage conditions – bearing in mind that heat and exposure to oxygen are key factors. This is where most amateurs go wrong.
 
Personally – I believe long-term reliance on a generator for power is untenable, as one would have to have a major fuel supply on hand. That said, use of fuel for power equipment like a chain saw or roto-tiller or well pump can make post-collapse life a bit easier. As for personal transportation – I favor an electric bike, which can be re-charged with a solar generator.
 
One of the things I find most interesting is that most of us in the USA are just one or two generations away when most of the American population was self-sufficient. I come from a Southern Illinois farm family. We grew our own food, made our own soap, and even grandma made all of our clothes on a non-electric Singer sewing machine. I had one farmer cousin that had no electricity at his place, and relied on kerosene lamps at night. We also learned to hunt and fish at an early age. My dad bought me my first .22 rifle when I was 11 and taught me to shoot. Many times he would send me down the road and out into the fields to dispatch varmints. Can you imagine an 11 year old today simply walking down the local highway with a rifle in hand? We also learned to work on our own cars – replacing transmissions – rebuilding engines – mostly from junkyard parts. How the world has changed. Fortunately, even though I'm now in my 60s I am in great physical shape. I can thank the Lord for that. I don’t drink, don’t smoke, get plenty of exercise in trying to keep this temple clean. Most importantly, I realize that there is a God and He is not me. I put myself humbly before Him every day in thanks that he sent his Son for our salvation. I thank you, James, for carrying His message in your books. The best preparation for any of us is to be spiritually fit.
 
Long-term, I am very optimistic. Truth and righteousness will prevail. I see an economic collapse as a collapse of the humanistic, progressive New World Order concept which eliminates God in favor of the concept that we humans have the capability to make a Heaven on earth. The failing here is that earth will always be earth and full of sin. That is immutable. A collapse should finally hammer that truth home, perhaps once and for all. Then taking the principles upon which this great country was founded, we can again re-build. When a collapse happens, we should all be thanking God for this opportunity. This will truly be His grace. - A Corporate Officer of Power Research, Inc.

Preparedness, planning, survival… Words we heed and respect as part of our every day lives for the past few years and for some, the past couple of decades. We know not what the event will be, or if the SHTF will be a multi-pronged crisis. We just know that WTSHTF is inevitable and addressing basic needs is an absolute must.

Preparation starts by accumulating the rudimentary elements of survival: food, water, shelter, medical supplies, security, survival skills and a basic reactionary plan. We research and consume information through articles, books and web sites dedicated to different skills and techniques of survival.  With each foray into the sphere of preparedness, we become cognizant of new ideas and perspectives discovering ourselves thinking, ‘Gosh, I never thought of that’. We encounter the interconnected challenge of becoming aware that some problems will present/require more complicated solutions addressing services and issues which we now take for granted in our modern world.

With regard to food, the search for proper nutrition and caloric intake is meshed with the storage and multipurpose usage, along with the economic considerations of acquiring it at a reasonable cost. How many adults and how many children will comprise our cadre?  Any special dietary needs? Can a daily diet be developed that wouldn’t be monotonous and further exacerbate the general panic of the overall situation? Do we have the abilities, resources and skills to replace our food stocks if the event is a long term proposition?

Once the food quandary is in the process of being addressed, or so we surmise, what do we do about water for preparing the meals, what do we wash the food down with, and how do we replace our most needed survival item on a sanitary and quality basis, both on a stay put or bug out basis?

What are the collective health standing and physical conditioning of the group? Any long term physical limitations to be addressed? Can the food stores sustain the energy and nutritional requirements for the challenges of an upside down, tumultuous new world?

How do we protect and guard our storage preps and our loved ones? Do we have the correct firepower, the will and the skills essential to effectively defend our location? How many rounds are sufficient? Will security skills be for defensive purposes only or will it be necessary to go on offense and become scavengers if need be?

Will we stay in our home location or have to bug out? If we bug out, how will we do it? On foot? By bike? What direction and by what route for safety and speed?  What will the event dictate? An EMP or solar flare with prohibitive transportation problems, a biological or terror attack creating immediate danger and minimal ability to travel with a limited amount of supplies, a financial collapse inciting riots and looting creating unsafe conditions. All present dynamic situations subject to various scenarios.

Questions, questions, questions, many unanswered.

The world is getting more inflamed on a daily basis and with the lack of sustainability of our current economic situation becoming more apparent with each dollar printed or borrowed, I decided recently to raise my preparedness to a level nine on a ten scale. After aggressively prepping for over six years, I felt comfortable in the knowledge that I had most of the needs for my family and group.  Adequate food to last for over a year, adequate guns and ammo to arm each person with more than two weapons each, multiple water and filter systems to meet our needs, a fully stocked medical supply with provisions, drugs, skills and instruments to safeguard our group up to the major surgery level, skills and equipment to replenish food stocks for a longer period of time and finally an big picture, written plan for addressing emergencies.

As I started the final planning process work and towards preparation for what I see as an imminent event, a memory flashed back of a science project in my fifth grade, almost 50 years ago. My chosen project was to build a wooden pulley and weight gizmo which could measure the reduction of force necessary to lift a weighted object. The wooden gizmo was about eighteen inches high and resembled a gallows from the Old West. It was fun to build and effectively demonstrated the desired effect that less force was required with the use of one or more pulleys. Long story short, when my teacher asked the question, “What does this prove?”, I buckled. I had been so enamored and enthused about building the wooden gizmo that I did not fully realize the resultant essence of the outcome. I was so busy prepping that I did not have the end game figured out.

This embarrassing project mirrored my conundrum with my current prepping situation. I have been so wrapped up in arranging and organizing my preps that I did not have a real solid plan to institute when a SHTF event occurs.  It is my opinion that the next three or four months hold a great deal of uncertainty and danger for our way of life. There appears to be multiple tinder points around the world- Israel v. Iran, the Euro banking situation, natural disasters, Greece, Spain, the Arab Spring hangover, potential terrorist attacks and last but not least, the election and the hubris and perceived unfettered power of a narcissistic elected official.

It suddenly and forcefully became readily apparent that I was not really prepared. I knew what I wanted to accomplish but really did not have a route to get there, much less the needed multiple routes, as it dawned on me after some focused thought.  With so many  SHTF events that could trigger multiple scenarios requiring different responses, I decided that I needed a variety of checklists to respond. I liken this to a pilot using his preflight checklist to organize procedures that will avert and prevent mistakes which may occur by an incomplete thought – a snap decision if you will. There will be a good many ‘seat of the pants’ actions required in any big event, but anything to minimize and prevent regrettable missteps is time well spent.  My main focus now is to prepare the multiple responses addressing different scenarios brought about by the most likely SHTF events present, at least in my purview.

To begin my project, I thought a grid table would be the optimum starting point. It’s principal purpose is to be an outline from which actions can be identified and present obstacles which may or may not be resolvable.  

The five most likely SHTF events which would produce TEOTWAWKI, again my opinion based from my point of view, would be positioned across the top of the table in no particular order – EMP – Martial Law – Israel vs. Iran- Biological/Dirty Bomb Terrorist Attack – Financial Meltdown. Other SHTF events could be higher on another person’s list due to geographic considerations, business, military or personal experiences and beliefs.

My left column of actions, which of course is not a  complete list and would  vary dependent upon personal preferences,  would consist of: Probability Ranking - Regional – National - Stay Put – Bug Out – Travel ease – Travel Prohibitive – Immediate Threat – Delayed Threat – Gather family/group easily – Gather family/group difficult – Long term – Short term – Prepared – Unprepared. These are starting points to simplistically induce thought and prioritize conditions. (Not meant to get hung up on the wooden gizmo again)

Example Matrix:

From this table, I had a basis to determine what course of action and concerns need attention. It is basic (and not a wooden gizmo) but it is an organizational tool which has helped me. A checklist can be formulated dependent upon the scenario and my perceived capabilities, or inabilities as the case may be. Deficiencies can be remedied and a side benefit was an offshoot. New, previously undiscovered issues became apparent.

The checklist can prioritize needed actions when a SHTF event occurs as to make the initial reaction more efficient, as any planning or drill tends to do. Printing out a completed checklist and filing it in a binder brings more order to the preparation. It also opens lines of communication with other family or group members hopefully provoking thought and sharpening their sense of purpose. Perhaps when utilized, the order and organization might allay some of the anxiety and angst which undoubtedly will surface in a major event.

My first checklist produced a prioritized twenty seven point plan of action beginning with defense issues, food, water, and progressing to assignment of chores and responsibilities which prevents duplication of effort and also helps make everyone an integral part of the team. One of my major concerns upon reflection of the check list was the ability of my younger family members to adapt and accept the new obstacles which have been thrust upon us.

Using the table as a guide, one can play a ‘what if?’ game and develop a coherent response to different scenarios. Many people have probably surpassed the rudimentary structure which I have utilized and I applaud them for their organization. It was only when I determined the need to take the next step in elevating my readiness that I discovered my preparation was inadequate. I needed a simple starting point and a means to get closer to my goal without getting hung up on another wooden gizmo.

Introduction, Scale

I think you will agree that you will get the highest returns from your preparation investments when you make those decisions based on the relative likelihood of a range of SHTF scenarios.  Unfortunately, the probability of many SHTF situations is very hard to determine, and will end up being a judgment call.  However, there is some information out there on the likelihood of certain events that qualify as SHTF.  This information allows us to at least calibrate our judgment calls on the likelihood of certain events, enabling us to refine our gut feelings. In doing so, we will look at a wide range of potential events, which would run the gamut of being the victim of a crime to the potential for a worldwide astrophysical cataclysm.  The scale of a potential SHTF event obviously has an impact on the probability, and in ways that might not be intuitively obvious, but will at least give us some sort of basis for a planning-level judgment. 

Personal SHTF Events
As shown in Table 1, based on crime statistics from calendar 2010, the probability of your being the victim of any crime is about 3.3%, and the probability of becoming a victim of a violent crime is about 0.4%.  On average, in the USA, your chances of being murdered is less than 5 thousandths of a percent.

Compare this to other personal SHTF events, shown in Table 2.  Note you are a little over four times more likely to become a crime victim than you are to die from any cause in any given year.  You are more likely to die of an accident than you are to be raped and/or murdered.   If you go to Yellowstone, you are five times more likely to be attacked by a bear than you are to be hit by lightning while you are there.

I took some flak for my last essay in SurvivalBlog for suggesting that Unlawful LEO Activity, or Police Misconduct, was something to actively consider as a threat.  First of all, I am biased in favor of law enforcement in nearly all respects – I have nothing to prove to anyone in that regard.  That said, the probability of your being involved in an event in which you become an alleged victim of police misconduct is about one-half of the probability of your being murdered, based on statistics compiled by the Cato Institute.  If you are a law enforcement officer, the probability of your being involved in an incident in which police misconduct is alleged against you is a less than one percent.

Keep in mind that these are averages and for the USA only, and rates will vary dramatically by geographic locations, and would also be highly dependent upon behavior and the situations in effect at the time.  Even though overall crimes rates have been falling, and fell in 2010 as compared to 2009, the crime rates, including violent crime, in those cities with the highest rates, actually increased, resulting in a substantial and increasing variability by location. For instance, it was reported this summer that the murder rate in Chicago – at about 19 per 100,000 population (or 15/100,000 depending on the source) - is presently four times that of New York City and twice that of Los Angeles.  Depending on where you are, what time it is, and what you are doing, the probability of your becoming a murder victim in Chicago might even be higher than that.

Local variations are significant.  In 2010, the average murder rate in Los Angeles County was 6.28 per 100,000 population, about 30% more than the average for the nation as a whole.  Within Los Angeles County, the murder rate for Compton was 25.92, and the murder rate in Inglewood was 18.24.  By contrast, the murder rate in San Jose, in the heart of Silicon Valley, was 1.4, and that for the New Orleans area was 20.

That might seem pretty high, but the murder rate in Caracas, Venezuela recently was reported to be as high as 200 per 100,000 population, and apparently 90 percent of those murders go unsolved.  The murder rate in Honduras is over 90, and that of Mexico overall is only 22.  However, the murder rate in the Mexican state of Chihuahua is 111, and that of Ciudad Juarez, in Chihuahua across the Rio Grande from El Paso, was reported to be over 220 in 2010.

Black Swan Natural Disasters
In a very useful 2011 document, the firm of Ernst & Young defined a Black Swan Event as being one that occurs unexpectedly and unpredictably, develops rapidly and lasts for a period of up to several months, are catastrophic in scale and broad in scope, present hazards beyond immediate financial risks (loss of life, health, environmental damage), involve significant asset damage/losses, and require corporate/government resources to resolve.  The document lists 21 such events that have happened in the past 40 years, including such events as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Andrew, the Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, the Earthquakes in Haiti and Sichuan, China, and the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks.  In going through the literature, I believe that I can come up with another 20+ instances of similar magnitude during the same period, which means that a Black Swan Event is likely to occur somewhere in the world at least once a year. 

The question from your perspective is how likely such an event is to strike in your area, such that it effects you.  That is a question that the insurance industry has been attempting to resolve for many years.  We know that hurricanes like to hang out in the Caribbean, the Southeast United States and along Atlantic Coast.  We know we are overdue for a large earthquake in California.  The chances of the Big One happening in any given year is above 0% but less than 100%, and depending on what you read the probability is either increasing or decreasing every year that it does not happen.

For planning purposes, maybe we should assign a probability of 3% to such an event.  That would be about the same probability as your becoming the victim of a crime of any sort in any given year.  Or would you judge that the likelihood of a Black Swan Natural Disaster that impacts you would be less than 1%, or about the same as the probability of dying from any cause according to the CDC?  Or is it in between, at about 2%, which is the approximate the probability of your being in a traffic accident during any year?

Other Black Swans
Black Swan events can include things such as the “financial meltdown” in 2009.  There are many people who predict that the fiscal and monetary policies being followed by the Federal Reserve, the US Government, and many state governments, made a further and more serious financial crisis a virtual certainty within the next five years. 

I have read some reports that state that the past four years have actually been worse, by certain measures, than the Great Depression.  What if it got worse suddenly?  That could certainly happen, with the wrong combination of tax, fiscal and monetary policy being imposed on our economy.  Would the resulting economic and societal stress, combined with gradual breakdown of infrastructure and government services (roads, signals, water/sewer, police, fire, schools) result in our gradual slide into failed state status?  Would that result in the environment becoming as dangerous to us as Mexico is now, or Chihuahua State, or Ciudad Juarez?  This seems more likely to me than the comet strike, Planet X or zombie epidemic scenario. 

A Wedge of Swans
Black Swans, at least by the Ernst & Young definition, are not TEOTWAWKI events, since we have had them before, and the world still exists, in almost the way we knew it.  However, swans are gregarious birds, and a group of swans can be called a flock, a bevy, a wedge or a team.  I believe that a wedge of Black Swan Events could amount to a TEOTWAWKI event, and that such a combination of blows could be a more likely scenario than some of the others we hear discussed. 

One scenario that I don’t like thinking about would begin with a financially weakened and war-weary United States teetering on the brink of a further financial disaster that had been building for years.  We are then suddenly hit with one or more of the following: a 9/11 scale terrorist attack, a major epidemic, and/or several natural disasters.  If you then throw in a dramatic increase in civil unrest bordering on insurgency, which in turn leads to US Government actions that are seen as unlawful by a significant portion of the population, you have a believable, non-sci-fi, TEOTWAWKI scenario. 

What is the probability of such a combination of events?  In rooting around on the Internet, I find that there is a fairly narrow range of personal predictions from various sources of this type of scenario happening: from 1% to 20% within three to five years.  If this is true, at even the low end of the range of predictions, then we should be just as worried about this as we are about being in a traffic accident, being a victim of a crime, or dying from heart disease.

I should add that I recently had a discussion with someone that I respect who argued that there might be several unique Swan Wedge Combos that have an overall beneficial impact on at least part of the population.  For instance, what if the US was teetering on the brink of a financial disaster, and was suddenly faced with a substantial part of the country that wanted to go its own way – secession – and a war-weary population prevented a Civil War type re-conquest of the seceding states or regions?  It is possible that the seceding areas would be established as lightly governed havens for business and technological innovation, a Libertarian utopia.  Where can we sign up for that?

Black Swan Impacts on the Rates
If we slide into failed state status because of renewed financial crises, or we suffer a Swan Wedge Combo, the way that affects our survivability will manifest itself through dramatic increases in the probabilities of various items shown in Tables 1 and 2 above (even bear attacks).  It is useful to think in terms of everything breaking down to where we are suddenly shoved into Caracas-level risks.

If the murder rate is, on average, increased to about 200 from about 5 (40 times), you might also expect that your chances of dying, from any cause, to increase from about 800 to about 32,000.  In other words, your probability of dying in any given year from any cause would go from less than one percent to about 32 percent – the odds are one in three that you would die. If that were to be the average probability – the middle of the bell curve – think what the ends of the curve would look like: on the one end you would have conditions that are much closer to what we know as normal, on the other you would have absolute slaughter house conditions.

The job of those who are preparing is to push their own situation, and that of their loved ones, towards the “more normal” side of the curve.  If you are preparing yourself physically and financially, then you have a much better chance.

Cataclysms, TEOTWAWKI
The scenarios that are the subject of major motion picture franchises, and memorable novels, belong in this category.  Red Dawn foreign invasions, Terminator singularity and machine-attacks-mankind events, epidemic aftermaths such as The Omega Man and I Am Legend, and others.  The scenarios would include asteroid or comet strikes, diseases, apocalyptic wars, electro-magnetic pulse events (natural or manmade), and other disasters.  In 1984 and Atlas Shrugged, both the movies and the books, the villain is the slow relentless grind of totalitarian government.  What are the odds?  I don’t know, but they are certainly greater than 0% - for one example you can check out NASA’s risk assessments for potential Earth impact events.

Who Cares About the Odds?
Life is full of peril, and it is essential that persons committed to individual responsibility and self-reliance be prepared.  It begins with the things that are most likely to happen to you and your loved ones, and grows out from there. 

If you have made the commitment to defend yourself and your family from crime and possible civil unrest, if you alter your lifestyle to avoid the most common objective hazards such as disease and geographically-focused dangers/crimes, if you take measures to ensure you can survive for a substantial period of time during the most likely Black Swan Events (hurricane, floods, earthquakes), then you are already better prepared than the vast majority of people. 

Progressing from that state of readiness to being able to handle various conceivable Swan Wedge Combos is probably just a matter of scale, and of organization into a community of like-minded souls.  If you have done that, and are lucky, then you will be a survivor if this happens. 

Moving from that stage to a stage of being able to handle a true global cataclysm is probably not a very useful planning task.  If you are lucky enough to survive whatever the opening disaster is in the TEOTWAWKI scenario, and you are already pretty well prepared for a potential Swan Wedge Combo, then you are also probably as well of as you could be for the aftermath.  Good luck to you.

The Author
Despite the state's appalling politics, the author lives peacefully in California.  He is engaged in the business of financing energy and technology firms, and is the acting CEO of a private military contracting firm.  He is also devoted to the personal pursuits of rock climbing, martial arts, and hunting.  Prentice is also the author of Feral, a novel with significant Libertarian overtones, and the short story Purgatory.

References and Suggested Further Reading:

Disaster Center, US Crime Rates 1960 – 2010 (http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm)

Center for Disease Control (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_04.pdf)

http://www.goinsurancerates.com/auto-insurance/11-statistics-and-facts-thatll-stop-you-from-driving-uninsured

National Weather Service (http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/medical.htm)

“Yellowstone Bear Attack: What Are The Odds?” by David Knowles

Statistics from Cato Institute’s National Police Misconduct Reporting Project, 2010 Annual Report (http://www.policemisconduct.net/statistics/2010-annual-report/), adjusted to show the “rate” per 100,000 population using 308mm total population and 234mm adult population.  Note that the Cato report shows a total of 4,861 reports of police misconduct, involving 6,613 sworn police officers, and a total of 6,826 alleged victims, out of which there were only 247 fatalities.  The rate of misconduct of 978 is per 100,000 police officers, whereas the two figures above that are the incidence for the population as a whole, in the first case for the average 2010 US population of 308mm, and the second figure for the adult population only.

Used data from NYPD Analysis of active shooters from 1966 through 2010, total of 202 cases in the 44 year period, averaging 3.0 dead and 3.6 wounded per instance, for total casualties to active shooters of 1,333 over the period, during which there was an average population of 252.3mm.

Based on battlefield casualties in Iraq through January, 2007 (http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518921), based on per 100,000 man-years of battlefield exposure; compares to a KIA rate of 2,231 per 100,000 for Vietnam.

Huffington Post, 16-Jun-12, updated 16-Aug-12 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/16/chicago-homicide-rate-wor_n_1602692.html)

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/The-Deadliest-Global-City-163874546.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate

https://www.policymap.com/city-crime-rates/los-angeles-crime-statistics/index.html

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/table-6

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/world/americas/23venez.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

http://www.citymayors.com/security/latin-american-murder-cities.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ey.com%2FPublication%2FvwLUAssets%2FPrinciples_and_protocols_for_responding_to_unexpected_catastrophic-events%2F%24FILE%2FBlack%2520swan_FINAL.pdf&ei=z2NaUOCpIYfm2QXQ04H4Ag&usg=AFQjCNFuTasXVKu0w95aB_dlWFFM8Tj5jg

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

Sir:
Anyone who spends any amount of time on survivalist and preparedness oriented forums knows that a certain political worldview is the most commonly encountered perspective, particularly with respect to economic concerns. Particularly in the literary niche that is survivalist/preparedness fiction, the protagonist is often identified as a conservative critic of Keynesian economic thought and favors the gold standard. Very often the plot presupposes a very right-wing political orientation. Matthew Bracken (Enemies Foreign and Domestic), Thomas Sherry (Deep Winter, Shatter), Glen Tate (299 Days), and even James Wesley Rawles (Patriots) all share to some degree this worldview. Some authors even make efforts to settle scores with Democrats and liberals. I enjoyed all those books, and authors certainly have the right to write whatever they want. However, fiction serves a valuable role in outreach and education (not to mention entertainment!), and I think that it may useful to remember that being a card carrying member of the political right is not a requirement to be a survivalist. There is nothing inherently political about wanting to guarantee the health and safety of your family. You don’t need to be a conservative in the Austrian school of economics to want to be prepared.

Government Might Not Help You

Both the Occupy Wall Street and Tea Party protest movements share a common jaundiced eye toward the motives of government. Whether the criticism comes from the right or the left, it is not unreasonable to worry that the most powerful people in this country, or the world, don’t necessarily have your best interests in mind.

There seems to be a perception that rich bankers and the political elite all seem to eventually hold some fraction of their wealth in precious minerals and mountain retreats. Perhaps they have peeled back the curtain and have seen the fragility of modern civilization. Or perhaps it is just prudent for the super wealthy to take some small percent of their vast wealth and put it to work as a hedge against the most extreme of dangers. After all, gold is pretty and so are the mountains of Montana and New Zealand. Either way, whether through special insight or just good planning, many powerful people are preparing for something. That just makes it all the more likely that if a true danger does appear, they have the ability to escape. That mere possibility of escape means that if comes time to navigate through rough seas, the normal captains at the helm may already be lowering their private life rafts.

Even If “They” Have Every Intention Of Preventing Collapse, They May Miscalculate

You don’t even need to be a cynic about government to want to prepare for trouble. Maybe the power brokers and elites that run the country do have the best interest of you in mind. After all, collapse and disorder are not the ideal methods to accumulating wealth and power. It would be far better to own a small slice of an enormous pie than control a larger slice of a shrinking post-collapse society. Even if the people who man the levers of the economy really are evil geniuses, it is probably in their best interest to keep the entire system perpetuating. But even evil geniuses are people, and people make mistakes.

Many survivalists and authors of survivalists worry about the fiat money system and favor the gold or silver standard. It is entirely plausible that the economic growth and innovation of the last 75 years is attributable to having abandoned the gold standard to the dustbin of history. Maybe fiat money and central banking is a bit like what Churchill said about democracy, it could be the worst form of economic underpinnings except for all those others that have been tried. Certainly inflation, disinflation, and jolting business cycles were well known when the world ran on specie.

The 2008/2009 banking crisis and resulting government intervention was a scary event. Yet some thousand plus days later the wheels of trade are again more or less functional. Nobody should ever wish for a collapse, even if it like the grasshopper, you may think eventually those unprepared are due a comeuppance. If Bernanke was able to patch things together and pull off a last second save of modern civilization, he should be hailed as a hero, not pilloried. However, the fact that a last second save was even necessary should give you pause.

Even if you favor central banking, government backing of the savings and loans industry, and quantitative easement, the fact that it is a human at the lever that makes sure these functions help the economy should give you pause. The most powerful could be evil geniuses plotting every move, or perhaps even scarier, they are just people. Keynes - whose economic ideas are so often the target of the right and many survivalists - was fearful of the impact that “animal spirits” could have on the economy. The spontaneous urge to action unchecked by quantitative benefits or probabilities will always be a core potential risk in society. Even those who politically view government as having an important role in curbing the animal spirits should not ignore the very threats that modern Keynesians argue justify the Federal Reserve.

Other Concerns

Certainly the left offers other justifications for preparedness. Many on the left are concerned about the environment and sustainable ecology. And of course, plagues, nuclear terrorism, meteors, super volcanoes, various peak theories, earthquakes, and weather crises are all apolitical. - Anonymous

Mr. Rawles,
I recently watched a speech given by Jared Diamond, author of the books Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, among others.  It was very interesting and prompted me to write this post (which I first posted over at Guerrillamerica.com.)

I'm watching Jared Diamond speak about why societies collapse.   As you may know, Diamond wrote the book Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, among others (and they're all great).  Here are five factors that Jared says affect the collapse of societies.  I'll take notes and relate these effects to the American Redoubt region.  Think of these as thinking points as opposed to talking points.

Human Impacts on the Environment
There are massive human impacts on the environment in parts of the American Redoubt, although much of the Redoubt states are a majority of Federally-owned lands.  Because Redoubt states are so richly endowed with natural resources (hydrocarbons, metals, minerals, and lumber); there's going to be an equal amount of focus on getting those substances out of the ground.  That can create pollution and a degradation of the environment, which Jared says causes societies to collapse.  There will have to be a happy-medium solution to resource extraction and protection of the environment because we're economically dependent on these resources in order to function.  Will the American Redoubt be held hostage by international oil cartels (along with the rest of America) or will we make strides to become energy independent?  My bet is on the latter.

Diamond cites a few different examples of how the environment ultimately did-in societies; from the collapse of the Mayan civilization to the Norse in Greenland.  For the Norse, overgrazing and deforestation contributed to the entire Norse population in Greenland dying off.

There are environmental factors that are "too subtle" to realize until it's too late; as in the case of the Norse.  One of the subtle factors we might include is the population growth over the next decade.  If we do see a financial collapse, followed by a domino effect of other collapses, we'll likely see an influx of patriots to the American Redoubt.  The slower the process of collapse - if Americans do have time to get out of Dodge in an orderly fashion - the faster we'll see immigration into the Redoubt.

We should consider how we'll harvest and extract natural resources in order to support the populace and the defense of the region.  In any number of scenarios, the American Redoubt states would likely have to provide for their own defense; export resources for cash; and manage an influx of immigrants.  That can induce stress on resource production, especially if demand outpaces available supply.  Could our treatment of the environment to make life better in the short term actually end up harming us in the long term?

I'm by no means an "environmentalist" but we have a long term interest in being good stewards of the environment.  That's not just for the environment but also for us.  When our society literally depends on the environment by which we're surrounded, we have a vested interest in strategically consuming or harvesting those resources.

[JWR Adds: Thankfully the population density in the American Redoubt is quite low. The population crash examples that Jared Diamond cited were nearly all in areas where the population density grew too high vis-a-vis the natural resources. If there were a rapid in-migration, it would still take a century or more for the Redoubt to overpopulate to the point where it outstrips its resources. For example, the county where I live has less than five people per square mile. Even if the population were to expand by a factor of 10, there would still be plenty of elbow room here. And there is enough timber here to support 20 times the population.]

Climate Change
I don't believe in anthropomorphic (man-made) climate change but I can easily see how the climates of geographical regions have and can change over time.  We've had ice ages and we've had warming periods; that's just the history of the globe as a whole.  If we are indeed experiencing climate change in the Redoubt states, then our survivability in this region could be at stake.
Let's just assume that climate change is indeed occurring in Redoubt states (purely hypothetical).  Because most of the Redoubt region consists of semi-arid valleys and high deserts, how would warming affect precipitation, the environmental ability to accumulate and retain moisture over the winter (snowfall and snow pack), and run-off which constitutes a large portion of irrigation that makes farming these regions possible?

How would climate change increase the stress on our water tables and aquifers and on crops within the climate threshold?

Relations with Friendly Societies
We have to define "Friendly Societies" as the states (or societies) immediately surrounding the Redoubt; and also include most states in the Union as well as the regions of Canada to the north (British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan).  (States, regions, or societies we don't include here will fall under Hostile Societies.)
Because the Redoubt is landlocked, we'll be heavily dependent upon neighboring friendly societies for products and resources not indigenous to the region.  If we want a fresh tomato in January, we'd better figure out how trade is going to work under conditions where resources are scare (if we can even figure it out).  I believe the Redoubt can be energy independent and so our ability to export much needed resources will be an incentive for those friendly societies to remain friendly.
But at what point could we see conflict, coercion, and punishment from hostile societies?

Relations with Hostile Societies
The American Redoubt, with its vast resources and above average infrastructure, will still be under threat of systems disruption (def: the slowing or stopping of critical networks) to include interruptions of petrol, finance, energy, and economic networks (along with the rest of America).  The same nefarious actors that threaten America as a whole will pose a threat to the Redoubt as well.  We'll likely be limited in our ability (as Redoubters) to effect change on international adversaries and non-state entities and be wholly dependent on the response of America at large.
For the purpose of the American Redoubt, I'll include regional self-government as being under threat of hostile societies. Domestic hostile societies include large pockets of the Federal and military establishment; societies within the American Redoubt itself who won't want to live in a "free state"; and potentially large swaths of the population on both coasts.  In a true collapse scenario, there will likely be more immediate problems than the independent mountain states; but to overlook any segment of the American population would be foolish.

Political, Economic, Social, and Cultural Factors of Society
The political foundations in the American Redoubt states are what I'd call "pretty solid."  Liberty is still heralded as a major political issue although it becomes somewhat diminished in certain parts of each state.  The American Redoubt, by the numbers, has a strong economy; the region as a whole is in the top 25% of the nation when it comes to unemployment and at about the national average in other categories such as median household income.  Societal and cultural factors include a tolerance for logging, mining, and drilling (willing to accept risk for the reward); and very supportive of both hunting and gun laws.  Independence outweighs dependency and most believe that when the government gives to one what is not earned, another must work for without receiving.  Over-regulation and government interference are shunned in most places, which makes the American Redoubt states pretty great places to live.
Redoubters, I believe, when push comes to shove are responsive to intrusive government and laws of soft tyranny; although a few do manage to pass from time to time.  Compared to the rest of the nation, liberties in the Redoubt are either being upheld or eroding at a much slower rate.

Conclusion
Jared Diamond explains that a number of societies haven't experienced a slow, steady decrease; but instead rise to prominence only to fall very rapidly - years at minimum; decades at max - and collapse.  He likens that to a growth of bacteria in a petri dish, where the bacteria grows, the availability of food diminishes and disappears, and the bacterial growth collapses on relatively short order.

Those societies that collapsed failed to perceive their problems, failed to solve their problems, or both; some for lack of realization, some for lack of effort, or others for lack of ability.
"One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely" is the rift between the "short term interests of the decision making elites and the long term interests of the society as a whole; especially if the elites are able to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions."  We see this today in America.  Our decision makers - Congress, who passes laws regarding healthcare and social security that don't pertain to them - are adept at insulating themselves from the consequences of their actions and this makes me very concerned with the nation's survivability over the long term.

Finally, Jared Diamond says that societies must solve all their problems; that it does no good for a society to solve eleven threats but not solve the twelfth.  Regarding issues threatening collapse, we have to get it right 100% of the time.

These are five factors that every Redoubter should consider and we need to work on solving these problems before they threaten our society. - Partisan

Know your environment - getting the maps ready now

In a world full of google, yahoo and portable navigators, the art of using maps kind of gets lost. In a SHTF situation, you will probably not have much of a technological tool kit for navigation, or planning. Knowing how to use maps from a tactical perspective then becomes critical skillet. Sand tables are not the most portable item to help identify and understand a terrain, but using plastic layers over a map can be very portable, and useful for viewing an environment. The layers I talk about below are a starting point, you can add whatever you want or remove those that are not important to you.

On a side note the Army has an excellent manual that contains instructions on mapping: Combined Arms Operations in Urban Terrain (ATTP 3-06.11/FM 3-06.11) don't let the title fool you, "Urban" to the Army is a settlement 2,500 people or more.

• Using maps and clear plastic layers
• Map Basics
• Start with a basic terrain map of area; if you are in a rural or homestead area include one of nearest town. 
• I recommend hard copies for all, but you can start using downloads from google/yahoo maps, and using the terrain and other options. This map should have both land elevations and man made structures on it.
• Also available are software tools such as Visio, OmniGraff, and some near free diagram generating software programs, if you choose to create your own maps from a computer first.
• Don't forget to think three dimensionally - subways, sewers, basements, high-rises etc.
• When mapping out layers, it is key to have an index including category (layer name), location (grid, street, landmarks), common name, and supplemental information for that specific item documented and easily referenced.  Having a number next to the item on a map will also aid in the lookup.
• Check colors for map layers against your chemical light sticks, or your red or blue flashlight filters - make sure you can read them at night [under a poncho].
• Mark layered items with icons based on categories: triangle for first responder buildings, x'ed boxes for restaurants, etc.
• Have a map protractor to help identify distance, and bearing 
• Creating overlapping layers: 
• Use clear plastic layers for each of the following to aid in area understanding. Using plastic layers allows for easy removal or adding, one onto of the other, to gain a better understanding of the environment, and to remove clutter from information that is not currently important. For neighborhood resources you might want to think about not using a corner to corner overlay, but for known locations this might not be a high risk.
• Infrastructure layer - highway, streets, service roads, hiking paths, fire breaks, electric line easements, bridges, dams, main water pipes, electric power lines and sub stations, water towers and primary connection pipes, and local/state evacuation routes. 
• Subterranean layer - If town, urban or congested: subterranean infrastructure such as water and drainage pipes, location of manhole covers, underground garages. If marking subterranean infrastructure and you do not know if two manhole covers are to the same pipes use a different line from known when mapping. 
• Areas of Gravitation layer: these include any stationary location where you think people might congregate during a SHTF. Remember, in the world of google maps, many of these locations will have a street view. For high risk/high congregation areas you might want to include a side folder of street view images.
• First Responder locations: local fire stations, police stations, hospitals and clinics, national guard posts
• Food distribution centers:  supermarkets, restaurants and other stores
• Fuel: public gas stations, public works fueling locations
• Hardware and tools: Home Depot/Mom&Pop hardware stores, automotive shops, electrician shops, etc.
• FEMA (possible and known): state fairgrounds,  sports centers, high schools, large fields, etc.
• Population centers: apartment buildings, townhouses, high density neighborhoods, etc. 
• Wild Game layer - location of game, type, time of day and time of year where spotted. Animals tend to move in cycles, so keeping note throughout the year is a great reference point. Don't just go by location during hunting season for post SHTF.
• Environmental layer -  including time of year changes for common drought and flood locations, seasonal water holes, streams, marshes, and ponds. Also mark down farms, ranches, common hunting areas, etc. Also any area with a clearing of more that 100m square (potential helicopter landing site). If possible, note changes in background colors, locations of good concealment and at what time of year.
• Neighborhood resources -see "Neighbors skills and immediate neighborhood resources" below.
• Technology layer - using both google/yahoo maps and a car navigation system place the starting point on the major highways around your town, and see what routes it will take you to your local hospital, supermarket, and police station. If traffic stopped, how would you expect to continue on foot? These are bound to be hot roads and short cuts.
• Keep blank layers - also non-permanent markers for use with the blank layers. 
• Remember, when using a hard copy of a map on a table, you can use other items for mobile reference points, and adjust as they move.
• Using maps to generate "hot zones."  
• Depending on population you may choose to adjust the distances for red, orange and yellow zones, however I recommend using rifle ranges, likelihood of population congestion and probability of violence as the main lines of demarcation.  Remember, in a city and congested suburban, line of site dictates rifle range, not always ballistics.
• Red Zone:  draw a circle around any object in the "areas of gravitation" layer. Depending on your environment, it should be around 700 meters to 1 mile. Do the same around highways, streets, and other areas of traffic out to 200 meters on both sides of the road. If roads have a line of site from them to any item in the areas of gravitation layer, mark those red too, out to 200meters on both sides of the shortcut. Remember, when people are walking, they will take shortcuts. 
• Orange Zone: these are the areas that people start 'grouping' together on their way to or from an area of gravitation - easements where power lines are, should not be forgotten. Also any potential helicopter landing sites not covered in a area of gravitation layer. I map these out to 2 miles from any red zone. 
• Yellow Zone: this is basically anything not covered in Red or Orange.
• Personally, I color coordinate these areas based on Jeff Cooper color code, that way when planning movement, it is clear what alert level someone should be at.
• Identify possible areas of interest and possible scouting routes
• For areas where you might not have a choice, but to go to, it might be best to outline potential ingress/egress routes, ORP's, location for security halts, all within the context of "hot zones". At least in a pre-SHTF environment, you can print out pictures of possible routes ahead of time. Having a layer for each objective could be very useful. Most common areas to map out a scouting route are:
• Hospitals/Clinics
• Food distribution centers
• hardware and tools
• Fuel
• High ground / observation points
• Around your retreat

• Neighbors skills and immediate neighborhood resources
• Most of this is more applicable to suburban landscapes, however knowing ahead of time who has what experience will aid in any kind of SHTF organization. Each of these items and locations should be on a map layer. I really want to be clear on this though. The intent is to identify key people for skill set training and possible organization and consolidation of efforts.  

• Identify neighbors skill sets
• including location/address on map being marked.
• Medical: nurse, doctor, dentist, veterinarian, pharmacist, health care workers 
• Electrical 
• Automotive
• Engineer  
• Green thumb; raise livestock; gardens - even just ornamental gardens.
• Hunters/Fisherman  
• Hikers, campers, those used to living without normal public services
• Prior Service (ex and current military/law enforcement)
• Armed to various degrees
• Teachers 
• Canning, and non-refrigerated food preservation skills
• This list could just keep going on, but those are the main points
• Identify neighborhood resources
• Location of private/public wells, rivers and other water sources including pools
• Location of common areas for cultivation
• Natural food sources: fruit and nut trees, berries, etc.
• Natural barriers for use in defense
• Manmade barriers 

Collecting information post SHTF

Future "current" information is the one thing you can't stock up on. Deciding on when and where to collect information from your surrounding area, and what risk it is worth, is bound to be a major area for debate. OPs only let you know when someone is about to or has discovered where your group is. The only way to really avoid the "detection" is to put small teams out at a greater distance.  This also allows for possible flanking maneuvers, or spoiler attacks, beyond the immediate defensive location. It also requires an exceptional level of stealth, and perseverance. Far from complete, here are a few tips on scouting/ reconnaissance: 

• Post SHTF Map updating considerations
• When updating maps post-SHTF, mark any changes with a date/timestamp - even if it is on a notepad only. Historical changes may present a pattern over time that will be useful. 
• For defining routes, keeping historical records becomes even more important. Over time you might loose track of previous routes and start creating a pattern of action that becomes easily predictable by the op-for.
• Identify the following while planning a route: security stops, objective rally point, should the objective rally point (ORP) be compromised or team dispersed a fallback rally point, return path different from initial ingress, and extraction points if applicable (with redundant positions). Also, identify bearings/distance between different points. 
• Document using a range card from an identified point. Each team member should do this once observing the objective. This allows for comparisons between different scouting trips, and changes during sleep cycles.
• When scouting an area and observing people use the S.A.L.U.T.E. format:
• S - Size - how many people
• A - Activities - what they are doing - what direction are they moving? is a guard moving between two points and if so how often? etc.
• L - Location - grid location or other reference points you are using
• U - UNIT - if applicable, unit, uniform or other group identification
• T - Time and date
• E - Equipment - weapons, personal gear, and vehicles
• Post SHTF Scouting Rules 
• Never use goggles/scopes/binoculars with the people being observed between you and the sun - (always try and have the sun either directly above or behind you). Glare off of the glass may give away your position. Keeping at an angle or using a KillFlash can be good, but I wouldn't bet my life on it. Just be careful not so silhouette yourself.
• Know your pace count: for slow movement, normal and fast walking
• At night, try not to look directly at something being observed with the naked eye, there is a night blind spot that will interfere with looking at an object if you stare at it. Look at the objects sides and around it to see the object more clear.
• Also at night, always give yourself at least 30min to get used to the lack of light before moving around.
• If it looks good to you, it looks good to someone else too: a bush next to a thick tree is more likely to have someone behind it than a bush by its' self. Note that professionals understand this - so that could be a cat and mouse game.
• Never observe from the crest of a high point, this will create a silhouette 
• After identifying an objective to scout try and see if from a defensive viewpoint - where would you be worried about someone approaching? Where would you place the highest number of people in a defensive perimeter? What area would you think only a nut would try and move through? Then as long as it isn't a vast open field, be the nut.
• Cary what you need, not necessarily what makes you comfortable - weight makes long walks harder, short runs much slower, and in time you will focus on your overloaded pack more than what is going on around you.
• When scanning an area try and look deep into the shadows, scan very slow. Look for the slightest difference. Start with a rapid scan, for the obvious: left to right up to 100 meters deep then back to the left in a S formation. Then the same for the next 100 meters deep, and so on. Followed by a slow scan: same process but much more time is spent on each pass - looking for items out of place.
• Always move from one position of cover and concealment  to another. Know your next position before you take your next step.
• Always know where you are and how to get out. Egress should be planned with positions of defense along the way.
• Always use camouflage from the immediate area. Don't rely on just generic patterns such as BDUs or Multicams  
• Someone must always be awake and alert (three person minimal is best)
• There is no downtime on a patrol
• Birds will give you away: avoid nesting and perching birds
• Know your rifle inside and out: know how to range with your glass and front site, know your drops for your ammo, have basic gunsmith skills at least for the rifles you own.
• Know the military movement techniques and use them (bounding and traveling overwatch, ranger file, rolling egress, etc)
• Develop good hand signal communication with your team
• Crossing lines - i.e. leaving and returning to your location where friendlies are on watch, is one of the most dangerous tasks for a patrol, scout or otherwise. Practice this, and have a proper challenge and response with identified return routes known to both sides of the line (that change per patrol).  
• There are two really big give-aways when scouting: sound and movement. Consider a deer. God didn't make them in a camouflage pattern yet can still be unnoticed with it's counter-shaded brown even against a green background. Chances are, you noticed it because a tail flicked or light reflected from it's eyes. Our eyes are designed to be attracted to movement more than from any other giveaway that is natural in color. Slow, graceful movement, and lack of sound are the two most critical methods of not being detected; it's even more important than camouflage and counter shading. 
• No glass on a rifle used for scouting - flaps make target acquisition too slow, and glass reflects light. Use iron sights or [deeply hooded] binoculars. [JWR Adds: A Killflash sleeve requires no flap.]
• Remember the time-honored Rules of Roger's Rangers.

One of the most important skills to master in any crisis scenario is situation analysis.  The preliminary situation analysis is a valuable tool in planning and preparing, while the on-scene analysis will help focus your planned response.

Developing a Preliminary Situation Analysis: Hard Factors

Hard factors are unlikely to vary much from crisis to crisis. Factors such as geography, climate, nearby population, and natural resources will be determined by your chosen location. The only way you can change hard factors is to move to another location. One of the advantages of the American Redoubt is  the set of hard factors the region embodies.

Example: Hard Factors in a Personal Crisis Plan

The planner lives in a rural county in west central Florida, USA.  Location is a safe distance from hazardous coastal weather threats and population centers.  Climate is sub-tropical, so winter heat is not an issue. Nearby population is mostly lower middle class, with large winter influx of snowbirds. Natural resources include ample water, fishing, wildlife for hunting, and sun for solar power. Other hard factors may include access roads (cul-de-sacs may discourage thieves looking for easy escape options), immediate neighbors, and neighborhood “image” (I personally believe that high-end  neighborhoods will be more likely targets for criminals.)

Seasonal and other Predictable Variables

Depending on the location, there may be seasonal or other  variables in hard factors.  In our example, seasonal weather isn’t a major issue, but the presence of snowbirds could be an important variable to consider. If snowbirds’ homes are vacant, they may be easier prey for looters in a crisis. If snowbirds are present, their age and conspicuous possessions may also make them an easy mark.

Soft Factors in a Personal Crisis Plan
                   
Soft factors include factors that you control. Because you control them, you can identify weaknesses and bolster strengths. For example, a wheelchair ramp may indicate a physically weak target. A large dog  blocking the ramp can counter that. (Another large dog barking inside reinforces the image of strength) Compare one neighbor’s shiny new Hummer and professional landscaping  to  the tipped-over gas grill and rusty 10-year-old minivan across the street. Which home is the more likely target? In a crisis situation with civil unrest, you don’t want to be in the nicest house in the neighborhood.
   
Your basic preliminary situation analysis will give you a head start on the Crisis Situation.  It then becomes a simple matter of adding in crisis-specific factors and developing a tentative procedure for planned response. 

While many preppers anticipate armed hordes of vicious urbanites escaping cities in a social crisis, most experts believe that crisis transportation will be limited.  Your greatest threats are more likely to originate within a 20-mile radius of your home.

On-Scene Situation Analysis Factors

Definition of the situation is the first step in the on-scene analysis.  Factors include permanent damages, temporary damages you will need to resolve (roof leaking in hard rain), and temporary damages someone else needs to resolve (roof missing after tornado). Are you in the aftermath of a one-time occurrence (such as a major storm) or at the onset of a continuing crisis (such as a pandemic).  Potential resources include internal ( your prep storage), extended family or friends, neighborhood, community, state, and federal assistance.

Borrow a term from business and do a SWOT analysis–Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. Build on strengths; overcome weaknesses, be prepared to optimize opportunities, and be alert for potential threats.

A few years ago, Hurricane Charlie devastated our neighborhood. There were a lot of strangers around afterwards. While a few were looking to sell overpriced cleanup “services”, many were unpaid volunteers–luckier neighbors and off-duty LEOs offering a hand in clearing streets and fixing leaks.  It would have been a mistake to classify every stranger as a threat. 

Properly utilized, the situation analysis can help you deal rationally with a crisis situation. You may have noticed that I never mentioned guns or ammo or any of the dozens of expedient weapons we have on hand just in case some idiot manages to get past the dogs. One of the primary purposes of the situation analysis is to help you avoid confrontations whenever possible so you can devote your attention to overcoming the crisis.

Situation Analysis: Threat Demographics

While TEOTWAWKI may bring threats impossible to predict, other emergencies can be mitigated by recognizing threat factors.  There are three components of the Threat Demographic Analysis: history, local crime trends, and personal observation.

First, look at the history of crisis situations in your immediate area.  In the hurricane example, the overpriced cleanup scam artists were nearly always male, Caucasian, middle-aged strangers. Most had out-of-state tags and appearance ranged from scruffy homeless types to too-clean con-men types. They didn’t have business cards, local references, trade license or bonding information.

A second component of the threat demographic is local crime trends.  Most local newspapers print local crime statistics. Many local law enforcement web sites display photos of convicted criminals (may be a good idea for follow-up if a listed criminal is near your neighborhood).  Set aside qualms about “profiling” or “prejudice”. If 80% of the crimes in your community are being committed by Hispanic or African-American  males aged 18-25, then that factor should be considered in your threat assessment.

Finally, personal observation can go a long way in identifying potential threats.  A lot of law abiding people (and more than a few LEOs) know where criminal activity is concentrated in the community. Be aware of encroaching gang activity and suspicious situations.  Vacant foreclosed homes can quickly become “clubhouses” for illegal activity. 

Again, doing a preliminary demographic analysis of potential threat factors can help you respond quickly and effectively when TSHTF.       

A natural reaction at the onset of a crisis is panic. Reviewing your preliminary situation analysis and plugging in current facts helps you focus on proactively dealing with the crisis in the most effective way possible.

James:
My wife and I have been "aware" that something isn't right since the whole Y2K scare back in 1999.  Sadly at the time, we had no idea of what "prepping" was or the first thing to do about how we felt.  I think we might have had a dozen gallons of water on our shelves.  Pretty sad, but we really had no clue.  I've always had this nagging feeling that things were really getting worse all the time, but it wasn't until I watched the "37 Things to Hoard" advertisement, that I finally decided I was going to find out how to take action.  I knew I believed what it said, and had always been hesitant to actually buy one of those things, but I thought "it's only $27 or whatever, what could it hurt?"  So I downloaded the books, and for the first time I had a little bit of an answer as to what I should be doing.  Of course from there, it has exponentially grown, because I thought if $10 a week was good, what could I do with $100 a week and so on.  We were already so far behind the game, I began to ask God for the time that we needed to prepare the way He wanted us to be prepared.  I read everything I could, especially SurvivalBlog and the book "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It", learned new skills quickly, and questioned whether or not prepping was biblical.  Our background as Christians has always made us look to the bible for our overall answers.  If it lines up with the Word of God, then it's right.  If it goes against the Word of God, then it is wrong.  With everything that isn't mentioned being up to us as to whether we will accept it or not.  Well I obviously came to the conclusion that yes, it was biblical.  So we moved forward and started formulating our short term goals, long term goals, and the "what would we do if we had all the money in the world right now" goals.

I always admired our grandparents and people that had gone through the Great Depression, and if you asked any of them what things were most important to have, wheat or flour would have been one of them.  So I asked myself what would I do with wheat or flour.  Oh yeah, I could make bread.  Then I remembered that I didn't know how to make bread.  So I set off on a quest to learn how to make my own bread.  It was liberating to know, that with this one small step I was on my way to being able to learn the necessary things I would need to be self-sufficient.  I began to realize, that unlike many of our rural brethren who have lived the life and learned things since they were young, there is a whole set of skills that is dying off with a great generation.  The internet has made learning much of those skills much easier, but you definitely have to practice those skills.  For example, we started gardening three years ago and have made many mistakes.  If we absolutely had to live off our own garden, I'm not sure we could do it yet.  I thank God that
He has given us a little bit of time to make mistakes before we don't have any choice.

All the things that have to do with prepping can be learned, from food storage to gardening to firearms to medical techniques and everything else.  But the real questions I have been struggling with, are much larger than those.  As a Christian, I know how it all ends as the bible tells it, and I have spent my whole life preparing my soul for eternity.  Always asking myself the question "would I be able to lay down my life for the Word of God"?  If someone had a gun to my head and said that I either denied God, or I would be shot, would I be able to stand up for God and die?  So for me, the end of this world is something I have been accustomed to thinking about.  That being said, I also know that 1 Tim. 5:8 says "But if any provide not for his own, and especially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith, and is worse than an infidel".  And so, as a father, I must be prepping for my wife and children.  There are many Christians that say "God's in control, and I'm just going to trust in Him to take care of me".  Except that the five virgins that didn't prepare oil for their lamps weren't allowed in to the marriage (Matt. 25).  Point being, they were all virgins, but only half of them were prepared. 

I'm also somewhat of a history buff, noting that civilizations rise and fall throughout history, usually coinciding with that civilization rejecting God, as our nation has been doing for some time now.

So on to my larger questions.  Is this the end of the world as foretold by the bible?  Because if it is, then nothing material means anything.  Which is why I am teaching my family to prepare our souls first, then prepare for our bodies.  Still prepping, just in a different way, and still keeping in line with the Bible.  "Seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness, and all these things will be added unto you" (Matt 6:33).  Or is this just the cyclical rise and fall of a nation?  And if it is, then where would we go from here?  In WWII, the smart ones left everything they had, in the middle of night, to get out ahead of Nazi Germany.  They left family, friends, houses, belongings, and the only existence they ever knew because they felt led to leave.  The difference was, they had an "America" to run to.  Where in the world right now, would we run to?  Or are we left to stay here and fight?  Scary thought. 

We may be forced to do things we've never even considered before.
My wife and I definitely feel we are being led to prepare ourselves and our family as best we can with the resources God has given us.  But I go back and forth sometimes as to what direction to take.  Sometimes I feel we should be planning to ex-pat.  Sometimes I feel like moving to the redoubt, not knowing if there's enough time left to plan all of that.  Then sometimes I feel like we ought to stay put until we can just move a little farther out of town onto a little hobby farm.  I think and pray about these things all the time.  Choices, choices, choices.  And with every day getting worse in the world, and closer to the eventual meltdown of the economies of the world, including our own.  There is no manual for this situation.  There is no one size fits all answer that everyone should be following.  The events of this year have been a rising tide of evil, spreading all over the world.  We can argue the intents of those involved and who's to blame all we want, but it seems like the snowball effect is taking place and the decline of the world has taken on a life of its own.

Which is why I've come to these conclusions.  First, that I need to prepare my soul and always be mindful of where God is leading me.  When I do this, He is really in control, and I find myself in places I never thought possible.  Second, that all of the distractions our society has created for itself, be it television or video games or lifestyles or anything else, should take a back seat to the overall preparing for long term collapse of the way things are.  How many years did the media cry "the housing bubble is going to burst!" and everyone kept buying, selling, and flipping, until one day it actually burst.  Then a new reality came into being.  I have a feeling we're in for something much worse, and it will last a lot longer than the last time, which we still haven't recovered from yet!  And third, that whatever path I choose for my family, that I must continue to prepare, continue to build, until I have my answer from God.  If I and my family happen to die along the way, then someone will use it, and what a blessing it will be for them that find it.  And even in my death, I will have helped my fellow man.

I pray that the Lord Jesus will grant us that are aware and working, the time to do the things we need, and give us the forewarning and knowledge of where to go and what to do, and that He keep us safe on our individual journeys, and that through the fire that we must walk, that He will win more souls to Himself, until we all spend eternity with Him. - Anonymous

Mr Rawles,
I must contest the foolish statement made by Mr. Prentice in his essay, To Arms! Prentice's labeling Unlawful LEO Activity as a credible threat to the life of civilians is borderline absurd.  Yes, there are bad cops in our police forces. That's nothing new and those officers should be purged as soon as possible and serve time in jail if needed. Bad cops irritate good cops and ruin the good will honest officers struggle daily to build. But there are bad cops because police officers are not super human genetically enhanced automated machines. We are picked from your neighborhood, go to your colleges, and live next door to you. The average cop sees far more death, depravity, and tragedy that most soldiers will ever encounter over their 25 year career. The average cop could easily qualify for a medical retirement based on the traumatic stress that we endure daily. The majority of all your blog followers would love to have 2, 3, 4 local cops living on their block to provide a Neighborhood Watch on steroids. Yes, even good cops have bad days and sometimes lose control. So throw the bum out? If so your local PD would have no officers employed very quickly.

Prentice's belief that the average preppers should consider the local cop as a deadly threat is foolish and dangerous. Foolish in that the overwhelming majority of officers willfully run to your emergency with out reservation. They willfully, dutifully, risk their lives to save yours for low pay, horrendous working conditions and far to often with career ending injuries or PTSD issues. Yes, the bad ones out there do tarnish the work and valor of the honest cop. But to equate these few bad officer to the total vast good cops and deputies is reckless. Prentice equates officers to muggers, home invaders, foreign invasion, kidnappers, active shooters and even wild animal attack. Really? This is no different than the Prepper that steals, kills, or hurt others for what ever reason. It gives the rest of us  preppers a bad reputation and subjects us to public ridicule.

Prentice's comparing police officers with such significant criminal activity is dangerous, very dangerous. He espouse the idea of active resistance to law enforcement. The cop or deputy is tense to say the least as their lives are at risk every time they put their uniforms on. Active resistance to police action is a commonly accepted danger sign to the LEO community. It is taught in the academies and learned through survival nightly.  If a person disagrees with an officers arrest rational and actively resist the officer, it will not end well. Pull a gun on a cop and dang right the LEO will fight for their life to get home that night! The officer also has the right to self defense. It is far better to get the incident recorded or witnessed than contest the officer physically if you disagree with reasons for arrest or detention. Fight the issue in court and/ or make a complaint with the officer's internal affairs division. If the officer is a bad officer they will be removed from the department. But to promote active resistance to police officers is dangerous.

Why this route? Very few citizens know what their rights are or what heir responsibilities are. To physically resist or fail to comply with a legal order given by an LEO simply because you disagree with the offices rational for the arrest or detention is dangerous.  Instead of treating your local officers as a threat to you I suggest a some what radical but effective alternative. Rarely do officers receive thanks or appreciation for risking their lives night after night for strangers. I suggest thanking officers every time you can. We officers need your approval, your appreciation. This is not posterior kissing to get out of a ticket but a genuine thanks. We need to know that our lives and efforts have not been wasted. That the scars we endure, both physically and mentally, were worth the pain. Far to often we only see the negative that society has to offer. Officers rarely receive thanks or appreciation from those we protect. Your thanks, or hello will do far more than just bring a smile to our faces. It is a healthy reminder of why we officers run to danger. We need the approval and appreciation from the good people of society. Yes, there are incidents where rouge officers fail themselves, their fellow officers, and society.  But only the very minute few actively violate their oaths of office and pose a threat to society. This is why Prentice is foolish and dangerous in stereotypical labeling LEOs as a significant threat to the average citizen.

Thank you, - Mark B.

JWR Replies: I agree that in the present day that local law enforcement is not a threat. Nor are most of our other neighbors. However, under the exigent circumstances of a major, widespread disaster some police might be co-opted into enforcing martial law, or might be co-opted into enforcing new unconstitutional laws, or they might even go rogue in order to feed their own families, but I think that would be a rarity.

It is difficult to predict how things might play out in a societal collapse. I agree that generally most local police officers and sheriffs deputies will be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. But it would be foolish to assume that at least a few who are in positions of authority won't be tempted to overstep their bounds in the midst of chaos and a power vacuum created by an extended interruption the power grids, a lack of telecommunications and the loss of influence of--or perhaps even the very existence of--whole sectors of government and public services.

Preppers get painted is crazy doomsday people, sitting around waiting for the world to end, disappointed when it doesn't.  I think National Geographic has done a disservice to prepping with their show.  The people on the show explain "what" they are preparing for.  To many, their reasons are crazy.  To me, some of the reasons are crazy.  I think it's important to make it clear that it's not about a specific event or cause.  It's about planning for the future and protecting yourself.  Does it really matter if an EMP, financial collapse, or natural disaster disrupts your basic necessities?  What it comes down to is that you need to provide for your own essentials and survival.

Being a prepper is planning for your future, just like investing. When you invest for your retirement, you know you need to diversify your portfolio. You buy stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and gold. You do this because you need to spread your risk. You buy some things that are risky, that you hope will rise in value (stocks), and you buy things with certain intrinsic value that will not decrease (gold). Prepping should be added to your retirement portfolio too.

If you look at the big picture of the economy and the world, you invest your money in the stock market and retirement funds hoping they gain value, and now, hoping they will still be there when you retire. I think it is safe to say there is no guarantee that these assets will be there in the future. With the state of our entitlement programs and Social Security, they will run out of money. What then? Could the government take private assets such as investments? I think there is a chance. It would be easy for the government to say, "We are confiscating everyone's investments and savings to fund Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. In doing this, everyone will now be eligible for these benefits." The things that you have based your future security and comfort on, have just been taken. Now you are waiting in lines to get your rations because you didn't prepare.  Like any investment you need to evaluate it based on your situation and beliefs.  Maybe you are an optimist and only want to store enough for a short term emergency and wait until the government is able to come in to help.  This would be like a Hurricane Katrina situation.  Just enough to survive the rough period, then get help from the government.

Now there is some risk that if it gets that bad, the government could say, "You are only allowed to have 1 month of food and 20 gallons of water saved. Give me your extra 3 months of food and 100 gallons of water." But this is much more difficult than just confiscating your money. So look at prepping as part of your retirement portfolio, and start investing in it.
Just as you would set aside a certain percentage of your income for retirement, choose an amount to set aside for prepping.  It doesn't have to be a lot, just prioritize your spending. Food and water first, then purchase the items appropriate for you.  But also think about what others might want; such as alcohol and tobacco.  Maybe you have moral objections to either, but there are many who don't, and many who will want those items.  Think about the Great Depression and Prohibition.  Those with alcohol did pretty well.

The physical items you buy to be prepared can also be handed down from generation to generation.  Now, I know that not everything will last.  But if that can of green beans has been in your basement for 25 years, are you going to throw it away?  Probably not.  You will keep it and eat it when the times comes.  It may not taste the best, but it probably won't kill you.  Your guns, tools, certain foods, bags, tents, etc. can be handed down from too.  There is the potential for them to greatly increase in value as well.  What if the sale of certain guns becomes prohibited?  What could your gun be worth then?  It can be left to your kids, like your investments could, but it would be tax free and provide for their future better than money.  It is also important to teach your kids the importance of prepping.  If they don't value it and invest their own time in it, what you leave to them could be wasted.

Just like your finances and investments, your preps need to be protected.  Where do you keep your supplies?  Are they where guests can see them?  What would happen if your house was lost?  The FDIC insures your assets at a bank up to $250,000, so you shouldn't keep more money in one bank than that limit, or it could be lost.  The same is true for your supplies.  This is where your network could be a great advantage.  Try to diversify your supplies and don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm a 30-something civil engineer.  Like many, I've never needed to survive "on my own."  I'm not a survivalist.  I don't go out into the woods for weeks and live alone and practice.  I have a family; I don't have time for those things.  So my prepping portfolio is different than someone in a different situation.
Once your start prepping, it becomes its own portfolio. You have:

• Physical assets/supplies.  These are the things you buy at the store and save.  Food, medicine, water, equipment, guns, ammunition.
• Skills.  Skills are particular abilities you have.  You can have skills without knowledge, and knowledge without skills.  As an engineer, I can design a weld to meet a required shear stress.  That doesn't mean that I could actually complete the weld myself.  People with a skill and no knowledge compensate by "over-designing."  Look at medieval buildings.  They didn't understand the math behind what they built, they just built the hell out of it, and things are still standing today.
• Knowledge.  See above.  You compensate for your lack of skills by doing things "the hard way."  You don't know the "tricks of the trade."
• Resources.  These are the people, skills, and knowledge that you will have at your disposal.  If things get really bad, we will have to work in small communities.  There's no way around it.  You can not possess every skill and resource you need to survive.  You may come close, but there will always be something you are lacking.  You need to know people and have a network.

Take a look at your prepping portfolio and evaluate it.  Could you buy more supplies to compensate for a lack of skills?  Could you study and read more to invest more in your knowledge?  

Think back to when you teachers or parents said "everyone has something they are good at."  Find that thing, and make it an asset.  You may not think it's important, but I guarantee someone will find it important.  For an example, I've designed water treatment systems.  I can determine alum dosing, settlement time, and contact time for disinfection.  I've designed septic systems.  I've designed dams.  That knowledge may seem trivial when everything is fine, but when TSHTF, they could be pretty valuable.  So I would rate the knowledge section of my portfolio pretty high.  But I'm lacking in some of the skills.  I've never had to build those things.  I've never been in a survival situation.  I don't know how to farm.  Objectively evaluate your portfolio.
I've read a lot of disparaging comments about "armchair preppers."  "They just go online, buy some dehydrated food, and say they are preppers."  So what?  Maybe that's all they can do.  I think that should be encouraged.  Those people, "armchair preppers," have many more supplies in their portfolio.  Someone who has skills, but limited money, should include this armchair prepper in their network of resources.  There are factors which will affect your ability to prepare:

• Where you live.  If you live in an apartment in the city, how many 55-gallon barrels of water will you be able to store?  Are you allowed to own a handgun?  An AR-15?  If you live in a rural area, how many houses are near you?  Five within a 50-mile radius?  Where is the doctor? veterinarian? store?  You might be limited to only getting supplies over the Internet if you live in a remote area.
• Physical abilities.  You could be limited by your age, illness, or handicap.
• Finances.  Maybe you are a great craftsman, but you don't have much money to buy supplies.

Get creative.  Look at canning food, for instance.  You don't have to have a garden to can food.  One weekend, prepare a lot of frozen green beans.  Then can them.  It may seem a little pointless, but you've just learned how to can your own food.  A hobby like home beer brewing is a great example.  Many do it and the skills could be very useful.
The point is don't underestimate yourself.  Look at your talents and knowledge differently. Don't get discouraged by an elitist prepper who rants on a web site about "armchair preppers."  They could be the MacGyver of prepping, but they won't have all the skills, supplies, and knowledge needed to accomplish all that is necessary.

Editor's Note: This article first appeared at the Georgia Preppers blog site.

James,
Allen is right on about "arm chair" preppers. Many folks out there only talk the talk, without taking the walk.
 
Like Allen, I did not marry until my mid-40s also agreeing to live near a small community. The drive to my retreat is 42 miles to a fairly rural farm area when I grew up. My wife supports me wholeheartedly in this effort including participating where she can in learning new skills.
 
Over the last 8 years, I have been re-learning many of my boyhood skills critical to a rural lifestyle. It is amazing how much a person forgets over 30 years. I had many successes and just as many if not more failures. We are now just at the point where we can grow and preserve much of our food requirements. This is not an easy task!!
 
Along the way, my wife and daughter learned new skills along with me, including how to properly handle a weapon and became proficient in shooting to the point where it is an enjoyable family event.
 
I would point out, Allen C. does not take into account individual/public irrationality when disasters happen. While his examples may hold true during normal times, when the shtf all normalcy ceases to exist. Folks will do things without thinking or even any reason. Looting and hoarding will become the norm.
 
As far as the numbers go, he is missing the point. It really does not matter that 82% of the population or 90% will die within a couple of months/years from results of EMP.  The point is that large numbers of people will die creating new problems such as loss of expertise, sanitary issue from unburied corpses, etc...  I would think if even 10% of the population did not survive, it would be a major health issue. Bottom line is the people living would not be prepared to handle such a major event without prior planning and preparation. - George B. in Ohio

James,
I would like to bring a correction to Allen C.'s comment about the food supply in grocery stores. Just a couple of months ago my wife left the Northwest division on the largest grocery chain in the United States. She had worked in the food department for 15 years including several years in food department management. When she started her employment the company's business model was no more than 3 days of food inventory on hand based on sales at that location. The current business model calls for food inventory on hand of 1.5 days based on current store sales. In 2009 near Christmas poor weather prevented the store from receiving deliveries for a few days. Without any kind of crisis or panic the store shelves were empty after less than two days. The store where she worked receives no less than four full 53' trailers of inventory per day - unless they send more. This does not include product brought in by dozens of outside vendors seven days per week. This store was just one of several grocery stores serving a middle sized town of less than 75,000 people. I urge everyone to do what you can now to stock up on food staples with a long shelf life. When more difficult times come - and they are coming, you do not want to be compelled to make a rush to the store to try and buy what may be left. - Steve J.

Dear Sirs,
Normally I would be happy to let someone rant, get their frustrations off their chest and not feel it is necessary to address errors.  But, in the recent article by Allen C. there is a deeply flawed assessment of the grocery store inventory control that I believe needs to be corrected lest readers are led astray.

In basic principle, Mr. C. is correct regarding inventory turnover rates of the average grocery store.  Most financial assessments put the turnover rate at around 12, meaning that they keep roughly 1 month of their yearly revenue in inventory.  However, what Mr. C. fails to appreciate is the how the numbers break down.  Grocery stores don’t manage their inventory as a whole:  they manage each product individually based on the just-in-time [inventory control] premise to minimize their capital outlay.  What that means is that there is significant financial incentive for the store to keep on hand only enough inventory to get them through to the next delivery.  Modern shipping typically averages 3 days from distribution to point of sale, hence grocery stores typically look to maintain roughly 3 days inventory of their high turnover products.  Its not 3 days for all products, but 3 days for the highest turnover rate products.  What store wants to have excess days of a product when they sell 100 units a day.  Are they going to maintain 2,500 units in the store?  Of course not.

So how do these two numbers square up?   This is due to other business drivers that a store may face.  They cannot just maintain stock of commonly used items.  To attract customers to their store and provide one-stop shopping they need to inventory and maintain a wide range of rarely purchased items.  Even ignoring non-food items (cookware, bags, personal care, etc) one just needs to look at the snack food aisles.  How many different brands, flavors, and types of potato chips are kept in inventory?  Many of them only sell a couple bags a month.  This could lead a store to just have 1 bag of each on the shelf, but this is very poor promotion and the suppliers would not be happy.  They want their product to appear to be in demand so, through supply arrangements and deals, a grocery store is incentivized to maintain inventories of these specialty items far and above just-in-time inventory levels.  There are well over six months of inventory of many of these specialty products on the store shelves.  In fact many stores struggle with getting turnover rates of these items to be shorter than the shelf life and are often faced with disposing of expired goods.  This is why they have sales on certain items after all.  

Ironically, the in-demand, high use items tend to have the least inventory levels on hand.  These are often the items that appeal to the broadest customer base, like the most basic of food items.  For instance, busy stores will know exactly how many bags of flour they need to maintain from years of tracking data and experience.  It’s the low use items that radically skew the overall inventory numbers.  In a situation that disrupts delivery, the shelves of common items will empty in just a couple days even without panic buying.  What will be left are the bags of avocado-chili-fireball waffle cut potato chips and organic port-wine whole seed mustard, but even so this may only mean a dozen each for the total store customer base of hundreds or thousands.  Even with hundreds of these types of items, it’s not going to feed the populace for very long at all.

I can’t say if 3 days inventory is the best number to use for this type of consideration, but I hope I’ve clarified that it is most definitely not 25 days.  Anyone in storm-prone areas of the irrational mid-atlantic has already experienced this during winter storm alerts.  Milk, bread, and eggs quickly disappear entirely from the shelves.  This isn’t even panic buying.  This is just pre-buying for folks who are afraid they won’t be able to get to the store for a few days.  Even if there is other food on the shelves I shudder to think of the societal reaction when the milk and bread is gone and the next shipment time is unknown. ‘ Let them eat waffle chips’, isn’t going to go over too well I suspect.

I agree with Mr. C that many bits of accepted knowledge need to be critically assessed and re-assessed as needed, but in this instance his analysis is quite flawed.
 
Sincerely, - Mike P. 

I greatly enjoyed reading the letter forwarded by Allen C.  It mirrored many of my own thoughts, mostly not vocalized, that I have had about other "preppers."  I do not like the generalization implied in the word, itself, for it establishes a bias either for or against a whole group of people who seem decidedly different.
 
It brought to mind the much-repeated phrase among preppers: "like-minded individuals."  Now, having met face-to-face with a number of other people who are concerned about uncertain times and are preparing in one way or another for those eventualities, I found that huge differences exist in the ways of going about this task and the philosophies surrounding it.  Thus, to put out an advertisement to join "like-minded individuals" in the "prepper community" is, in my view, about like making the same exhortation to a group of professional football fans on the assumption that they are "like minded,"  when all they have done is to root for the same team that we do.
 
On the subject of paranoia, Allen repeats the oft-used phrase: “I wouldn't be so paranoid if everyone wasn't out to get me.”  This reminded me of a meeting I had in a public place with a few other local preppers whom I "met" on an online prepper network.  These were supposedly like-minded individuals, who, during the course of the meeting appealed to those present to provide their addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses for the purpose of networking, "early warning,"  passing the news, etc.  Of course, I found this proposal astoundingly foolish, and said so.  I was accused of being overly paranoid.  Are there degrees of paranoia?  Anyway, I refused to provide such information to complete strangers, and chalked down having talked myself into such a meeting of this kind to my own foolishness. There are few enough "like minded individuals" within a tightly knit family, or even in a pretty tight military unit, much less in the population at large.  People should dispense with the notion that such a fantasy exists.
 
Concerning Allen's frustration with preppers being "know-it-alls," this statement particularly rang true to me:  "Later the same evening suburban grandma is in a user group regurgitating a half digested piece of prepper knowledge she picked up on another web site without ever having to actually fight anyone, kill anything, or spend a week in the woods."
This brought to mind the image of my teenaged grandson, who, while very bright and seemingly able to absorb any sort of material that he reads, or hears, or sees on TV, has a terrible habit, in my view, of saying "I know...." such-and-such.  I have repeatedly reminded him that he does not "know" anything, nor does anyone else, unless he or she has actually done it or experienced it.  Reading about, talking about, or listening to others who read about, talk about, or otherwise expound on any subject does not constitute a reason to say to oneself: "I know."  There is only one way to "know," in my opinion, at least, and that is to know by the experience of doing.  One does not know how to fell a tree, slice it up with a chain saw, haul it, split it, and stack it, much less burn it, unless one has done it.
 
And Allen's comments further lead me into the frustration I have with preppers who are constantly writing on various blogs a presumption of what "will" happen under certain circumstances, such as a societal collapse.  Zombie biker gangs will roam the countryside, stores will be out of food in hours, gasoline will be unattainable, .22 caliber cartridges will be like gold, etc.  Some of these events might be likely to happen, of course, but for anyone to say beforehand, and in the absence of any evidence, whatsoever, that they "know" what will happen is ludicrous.  No one actually knows what will happen until it happens. Detractors have said "history repeats itself," so we can take from history that we actually do know what will happen.  But we really can't.  We know there is a likelihood of a similar event happening again, human nature being a constant through time, but we still do not know what "will" happen in a given event that takes place in the present times.  
 
In the popular literature, there is only one person whom I can say (because I haven't read everything, to be sure) actually knows about what it's like in an economic collapse.  He is Fernando Aquirre, who, in his book about the collapse in Argentina (2001-present), relates what he actually saw and did in that country during that collapse.  What we have in the American literature on the subject, as entertaining as it is to read, is fictional speculation.  Some of it substitutes well for instruction and even education, and reflects what appears to be very good research, but it is still fiction, causing one to caution oneself, once again, the "no one knows for sure what will happen."  Examples of such works that I have read and enjoyed include the novels Patriots (Rawles), Lights Out (Crawford), One Second After (Forstchen), Holding Their Own (Joe Nobody), Apocalypse Law (Grit), Feathers on the Wings of Hate (Grit), Enemies Domestic and Foreign (Bracken trilogy), The Pulse (S. Williams), The Rift (W. Williams), American Apocalypse (Nova), Lucifer's Hammer, (Niven and Pournelle), Ashfall (Mullen), Molon Labe (B. T. Party), The Old Man and the Wasteland (Cole), World Made by Hand (Kunstler), The Third Revolution (Lewis), Half Past Midnight (Brackett) and Dark Grid (Waldron), among a few others.  There are yet many that I haven't read.  Yes, I do love reading these books.  But they cannot say, and do not purport to say, what will happen, as do so many whom we see writing on the blogs.  
 
Yet, in spite of our differences, we continue to prepare because it seems wise to do so, even though we are not really sure of anything in the future except more uncertainty.  However, I do feel that preparation is more of a lifelong challenge than one that can be accomplished in even a few years.  Some people have had a "survivalist" mindset since childhood, and so "prepping" is second nature to them.  As Allen (and my father) says, they don't even call it that.   It just seems a way of life, indistinguishable from other often-practiced habits.
 
Further, Allen's letter got me to thinking of a Persian proverb, which led me into thinking of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
 
“He who knows not and knows not that he knows not is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows that he knows not is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not that he know is asleep - wake him.
He who knows and knows that he knows is wise - follow him.” - (Persian proverb).

Dunning-Kruger Effect:
According to studies published in 1999 by Dunning and Kruger, there is a difference between what we know and what we think we know. People are notoriously bad at rating their own competence at a whole variety of tasks.
 
Dunning and Kruger found that people who were not very good at a subject also tended to lack the skill to rate themselves at that subject. Such people often figured that the limited information they had about the subject was all there was to know, and that they were consequently more knowledgeable than the average. Hence we are skeptical when we read of so many "experts" on so many subjects on so many blogs.  Take, for example, the case of a "rifleman" who espouses that it is futile to learn for himself or to teach others how to hit targets at 500 yards, arguing that his 250 yard carbine (e.g. AK/AR) will do all that needs doing.  Well, the ignorance extant in such a statement is near to astounding.  Assuming that a majority of our foes are not riflemen, but carbine-men, would it not be wise to prepare to hit them outside of the maximum useful (lethal) range of their own weapons?  But raising such a point in public (Internet) conversation is akin to banging one's head repeatedly against a brick wall and asking for a great argument, considering all of the opposing views on that subject.  There do seem to be a plethora of people who know not, and know not that they know not.  They might retort that I am one of them.
 
Dunning and Kruger also found that people who really were quite knowledgeable about a subject tended to underestimate their ability, perhaps because they knew enough to be aware of how much more there was to know.
Further, they refer to a "double curse" when interpreting their findings: People fail to grasp their own incompetence, precisely because they are so incompetent. And since, overcoming their incompetence would first require the ability to distinguish competence from incompetence, people get stuck in a vicious cycle.
But one need not be obsessed with Dunning and Kruger.  The same effect can be seen in other writings.  Perhaps a few preppers will read this before posting their next expert "knowledge" to a web blog.

Charles Darwin:  "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."

1 Corinthians 8:2,  King James Bible (Cambridge Ed.)
"And if any man think that he knoweth any thing, he knoweth nothing yet as he ought to know."

Bertrand Russell: "One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.".

Regards, - T.D.

I may as well go ahead and apologize to anyone who is already offended by my title without apologizing for offending you.  I do not actually hate preppers.  I'm just fed up with them.  While I'm at it I may as well apologize for generalizing.  I don't like putting labels on anyone any more than I like being labeled, but it is necessary to generalize in this case so if you consider yourself in one group, but the other better describes you then I accept that in advance.  If it sounds like I apologize a lot it is because I do.  Survivalists being antisocial in nature, I sometimes say things that are inappropriately blunt and get criticism for doing so.  You may disagree that I distinguish between the two, so let's defer to an objective third party on the differences.  Popular Mechanics magazine did a fair job of explaining it:

Preppers call themselves Preppers, in part, to distinguish themselves from survivalists, a term that conjures up images of a paranoid loner hiding out in a cabin.  The Preppers focus on reaching out to other people, and they are avid social networkers. They share tips on things like canning, Port-a-Potties, and other useful skills to have for natural disasters. And they say the effort does not stem from fear. "It's encouraging, uplifting," insists Janet Liebsch, a dedicated prepper, who, along with her husband, publishes guides like It's a Disaster. "Once you start learning, you get addicted."

If you are a survivalist you may have already asked yourself why in the world anyone would want a Port-a-Potty.  You may also be thinking “I wouldn't be so paranoid if everyone wasn't out to get me.” I know I am.  I'm that paranoid loner hanging out in the woods.  At least I was before I got married in my forties and started a family.  I was first labeled a survivalist by local authorities in the 1980s and it was a pretty lonely twenty years so I was originally excited about the blossoming of the prepper movement, but after meeting hundreds of them I must admit I am disappointed.  Here are some reasons why.  

Preppers Are Presumptuous      
The prepper movement has boomed in the last few years and I must admit I resent being lumped in with the suburban grandma who goes online in the morning and orders some MREs, a can of bear spray, and a Gold Eagle coin.  In the afternoon she plants a container garden and fills some soda bottles with water. Viola, she's a prepper and despite the fact that I have done none of those things apparently I am too because prepper equals survivalist.  If it says so on Wikipedia it must be true.  At least that is apparently the mantra.  The fact that I am willing to have an online discussion with her does not make us the same.  To a lessor extent preppers are also attempting to also envelop homesteaders. But that's a discussion for another day. 

It has been said that to a man with a hammer every problem is a nail.  I found this to be especially true in Prepperdom.  First they assume that because they “woke up” and “saw the writing” on the wall they are now supernaturally endowed to survive what is coming.  They also think those who do not possess that one piece of prepper gear they hold most dear will be beating on the doors of the ark while they sit smugly inside watching the water rise.  The truth is there are a lot of people who do not own a gun, a bug-out-bug, or have anywhere to go who are going to feed on preppers like piranha.  For example, my home state recently rewrote laws to allow early release of nonviolent offenders.  These are felons who either did not get caught committing violent crimes or was not charged for them as part of a plea agreement.  Whether they committed them is a question of debate, but I know for sure they have mingled with those who have for years.  I visit one such person with whom I attended high school, but is now in prison and he tells me about post-release crime plans he did not have before he went in.  Although felony convictions prevent them from legally owning a firearm, it will not keep them from dispatching a prepper on the way to the Port-a-Potty and taking theirs.  The motivated ones have already downloaded a list of suspected preppers in their area from ARRL.org.    

Preppers Are Know-It-Alls
Later the same evening suburban grandma is in a user group regurgitating a half digested piece of prepper knowledge she picked up on another web site without ever having to actually fight anyone, kill anything, or spend a week in the woods.  Since most of those repeating these tidbits have not actually tried them, the knowledge usually changes a little like the party game where you whisper a secret in someone's ear who passes it down the line until the last person says it out loud to see how much it changed.  Sometimes it changes a lot.  As I will show later the belief the average grocery store carries only three days worth of food is one example.  It is a corruption of the valid opinion that store shelves would empty within three days of a trigger event.   

A recent volley with a prepper is the one that pushed me over the edge. I've met hundreds of preppers online, individually, and at conferences, but this short exchange was the straw that broke the camel's back prompting me to blow off three preppers in the anonymous “let's meet for coffee” pipeline and stop developing lopsided relationships with people I would not want to help me build a shed.  As with most tipping points, it was about something small.  It was about not being online on the weekend because I am at the retreat.  I agreed to move to town when I got married and since I get to keep all my stuff the price of having a great wife and family is worth the hour drive from the national forest.  It went  something like this:

(Me) High speed Internet is unavailable at my retreat location. I can't even get cell phone service unless I hike to the top of the mountain and then only digital roam text messaging.
(Them) {Immediately} Satellite works everywhere.
(Another Guy) Sometimes terrain or trees get in the way.
(Them) {Immediately} #^@#snet works ANYWHERE. Their web site says so. 
(Me) I'm in the North side of a mountain covered with trees.
(Them) {Immediately} Cut down some trees.
(Me) I'm not in some subdivision where my homeowner's association can force the rancher that owns the top of the mountain to cut a swath of fifty foot trees so #^@#snet can site in my dish at an 80 degree elevation because there would still be a mountain in the way.

This is a harmless example, but he could have just as easily been giving advice on food storage, how to treat a gunshot wound, or any number of possible life-and-death circumstances.  If there is only one ill consequence of the prepper movement it is the avalanche of inexperienced people giving advice in users groups when their only qualification is that they read something similar elsewhere on the net. 

Preppers Are Gullible
No where have I seen this more prevalent than in predicting the timing of total collapse.  Many preppers are disciples of nationally known doomsayers who have been predicting since at least 1999 that we are six months away from anarchy.  When confronted with the obvious they sometimes revert to the argument that collapse has already come.  I wish that were true because having hit rock bottom we could start rebuilding.  The economy may be held up like a horizontal mine shaft about to collapse, but when we run out of bread and circuses these preppers will see what total collapse really looks like.  The different federal agencies who are stocking up on ammunition are going to need it.

I have lost count of how many preppers I've heard from over the last three years who knew someone who knew someone in some branch of intelligence that had inside knowledge of pending collapse.  In one particular case I replied to the email several months later pointing out they had been worrying for nothing.  The sender immediately shot back that the original message only said SOON.  Apparently SOON is not necessarily within the same year.  She wants to meet with me personally. I told her we will get together SOON.       

Preppers Lack Critical Thinking Skills
Critical thinking is a type of reasonable, reflective thinking that is aimed at deciding what to believe or what to do.  Preppers want to believe the worst to justify expenditures of time and money.  Since this diagnosis in not one preppers will accept without proof, check for yourself to see if you blindly accepted a couple of the more popular prepper myths currently circulating:

Government Study on EMP: 90% Would Be Dead
Grocery Stores Only Carry 3 Days Worth of Food

Neither of those are true and despite the fact that I can prove it preppers with whom I discussed these myths were so adamant about believing the worst that they completely lost their critical thinking skills. My experience was similar to when I worked with shock victims at accident scenes.  It took several repetitions of the evidence before it finally sunk in.  Keep an open mind and see how you do.

Government Study on EMP: 90% Would Be Dead
Several Internet sites have recently been repeating a quote from The United West that in the event of an EMP our population would decrease by 90% within 12-18 months. ''Forstchen cited a 2004 study on the impact of such an assault on America. 'Testimony in that study said 90 percent, let me repeat that, 90 percent of all Americans would die within 12-18 months of an EMP attack,' he said.''

I've scoured the 2004 report and testimony he mentions documented as THE REPORT OF THE COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE THREAT TO THE U.S. FROM ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE ATTACK by the COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES and found only a question by Representative Roscoe Bartlett in the hearing asking if our population might shrink by two-thirds following an EMP and a noncommittal response by Dr. Wood that the population in the late 1800s was one-tenth the size it is today.

The earliest published document I have found containing the "90% fatality rate" is page 338 of the hardcover edition of Forstchen's novel One Second After.  This same author was a speaker at the seminar the aforementioned article was written to promote.  Could it be preppers are relying on a retrospective discussion between two fictional people?  I posed that question to United West directly via email and using the contact page on their web site, but received no reply.  Since no one can provide the source data for the 90% fatality rate, the reasonable conclusion is that it does not exist.  Certainly an EMP event would be disastrous, but to simply pick an arbitrary survival rate and declare ourselves in the fortunate minority sounds equally so. 

Those on airplanes, or in hospitals, hospice, and nursing homes and others like outpatient dialysis patients would be immediate casualties, but even if we include those over 85 and everyone living in communities with populations of 2,500 or greater the rate would still only be about 82%. Since there exists no historical data on EMP deaths, we can debate indefinitely what the death toll might be.  We can only say for sure that the 90% rate attributed to the congressional hearing is not supported by the actual testimony. 

Grocery Stores Only Carry 3 Days Worth of Food
The second example is even more concrete than the first because it relies entirely on basic math and accounting principles.  You do have to learn one accounting term – Inventory turnover or inventory turns for short.  Inventory turnover is the number of times during the year that a retailer sells an amount equal to its average inventory.  A simple example that assumed beginning and ending inventory is the same would be this:

If a grocery store carried $10 Million worth (at retail) of inventory and they sell $100 Million worth a year, their inventory turnover rate is 10 (100/10) because they sold ten times their average inventory.  According the the Food Marketing Institute, the largest grocery store trade association, the average store level turn rate for grocery stores in 2010 was 14.4. This excludes any inventory at company owned distribution centers, wholesalers, and producers.  It averages beginning inventory and ending inventory at retail, and sales at individual stores.  Average days of inventory carried is easily calculated by dividing the number of days in a year by the inventory turn number (365/14.4 =  25.35).  This means the “average” store has a little over twenty-five days of inventory [with normal demand].  Stores where retail space rents are high tend to have less variety and faster turns while those in rural states like mine with few distribution centers usually carry more inventory.   

I understand why people might think there are only three days of inventory because high-profile items like produce (56.4), dairy (36.0), and meat (35.3) have higher than average inventory turnover rates. Dry goods, the kinds of foods people should be buying in an emergency, are the bulk of inventory and have a lower inventory turnover rate.  This is where those who have drank the Kool-Aid start attacking the data by mentioning nonfood items, but toilet paper flies off the shelf and even pharmacy has a turn rate of 12 so nonfood items being in the minority and not turning at significantly different rates than food items have little effect on the turn rate. 

Those trapped by prepper bias often respond by stating an obvious truth that has nothing to do with the topic, but appears to contradict the revelator.  Someone may say, for example, that WTSHTF stores will be cleaned out immediately.  That is another discussion on the effectiveness of martial law.  In no way am I advocating waiting until the last minute to stock up.  The data supports an alternate response.  It shows that contrary to the opinions of other authors, we are not going to emerge from our cocoons two-months after an event to scour the country for other survivors.  The fact there is nearly ten times as much inventory in stores as preppers want to believe is one more reason to expect the violent transition to a third world country will be a long one.  Forty years ago 16 plane crash victims survived 72 days in the desolate Andes Mountains.  They did not have all the food we have in our system.  They did not have nearly one deer for every citizen as my state does.  All they had was each other – whom they ate.

Desperation will make people who did not “wake up” and “see the writing on the wall” a lot more resourceful than preppers want to believe.         

Conclusion
Does living in a prepper free world mean I am going to go it alone?  Certainly not.  Community is important to long-term survival, but instead of meeting up with the local prepper group who has no bug out location when the city becomes uninhabitable, we will be leaving early and alone for our secluded retreat community whose location I did not disclose to any of them.  I am using the time I redeemed from migraine inducing discussions with preppers to build stronger relationships with my retreat neighbors for whom heating with wood, gardening, hunting, and animal husbandry is not something they are preparing to do, but already a part of their every day lives.   

Much more than most survivalists I know who just want to be left alone, I have found the vast majority of preppers to be well intended and it is for this reason that I wrote this critical essay.  Those who think they are ready because they are stockpiling provisions and having Internet discussions really need to “wake up” and “see the writing on the wall” that these things alone will not save them.  Survival is more about skills than stuff.  We are on the cusp of a violent transition to a third-world country which will include an equally violent redistribution of hard assets.  I little humility and critical thinking will be worth far more than that single can of beans that preppers have been telling me they will one day trade for an ounce of gold.

James,
I am just getting ready to explore the Pacific Northwest.  What has come to my attention is the horrific nuclear  (Hanford) and toxic metal (mining) contamination of all the rivers in Washington, Oregon and Idaho.  The Columbia River and its tributaries are a toxic soup. Even Lake Roosevelt, above Spokane is filled with heavy metals due to mining in Canada. 

[Some deleted, for brevity]

Thanks for all your hard work. - Barbara H.

JWR Replies: To start, the Hanford Nuclear reservation sits right next to the Columbia River. It is down river from Idaho. Furthermore, the Columbia is down river from all of the rivers in Oregon and southern Washington--they are feed into the Columbia and out to the sea. The contamination at Hanford is now a non-issue. The water there has been studied in excruciating detail, and at great expense. To the best of my knowledge the Hanford Weapons Lab never affected anyone's drinking water outside of the immediate Tri-Cities (Pasco, Kennewick, and Richland) area.

Some key points, in summary form:

If you want to avoid mercury contamination then simply don't drink river water or live in a current or former mining district.  All of the rest of the drinking water in the Inland Northwest region is fine. In fact it is some of the best water in the country.

Heavy metal contamination is indeed a concern, but in the Inland Northwest, the culprit is usually just iron, and that has few deleterious health affects. (The trigger for hemochromatosis is genetic, not environmental.)

There is some arsenic contamination, but most of that comes from arsenic in the bedrock, rather than from industrial use.

The radioactive contamination that shows on this map is from uranium in the bedrock, rather than from careless atom bomb scientists at Hanford.

I've had few queries about radium in groundwater. The USGS reports: "Elevated concentrations of combined radium were more common in groundwater in the eastern and central United States than in other regions of the Nation. About 98 percent of the wells that contained combined radium at concentrations greater than the [maximum contaminant level] MCL were east of the High Plains."

Another issue is nitrates from chemical fertilizers. But again, overall, the Northwest has some of the lowest levels of contamination in the country.

Ditto for pesticide contamination--at least in the Redoubt portion of the northwest.

Ditto for salt water intrusion and salt buildup.

Ditto for acid rain.

Ditto for potential contamination from hydraulic fracturing ("fracking")

Ditto for organic and industrial toxins.

Ditto for declining aquifers.

In conclusion, the Inland Northwest is far from perfect, but the very low population density and the absence of heavy industries make its water quality better than most of the eastern U.S. In essence, since the region was settled later and settled more sparsely, people have simply had less time and fewer opportunities to mess it up.

If you are worried about "toxic soup" rivers, then look elsewhere. There aren't many in the Pacific Northwest.

The problem so much of this country faces can be sourced back to one common practice that many of us cannot bring ourselves to face.  Unrealistic promises.  The world is full of risks, in fact life could be described as nothing but a massive risk management exercise. Will my paychecks be enough to cover my bills this month? Will I have any unexpected expenses this month? Will a plane fall out of the sky on to me? Will my business be adversely affected by Obamacare? Will the price of oil rise so high I can’t afford my commute? Will the value of stocks, bonds, gold, land, or whatever I use to hold and grow value over time crash?  Will those investments go through the roof and I will have missed the opportunity to invest more?

Many people in business spend a lot of time trying to quantify and figure out manage risks but the important thing to remember is that risk never goes away.  It can be diced up, spread around, shared, concentrated, traded, bought, and sold but it never goes away.  Just because you bought an insurance policy or a derivative to offset your risk doesn’t mean the risk went away. You just replaced it with a different risk.  You got rid your basic risk and replaced it with the risk the insurer or derivative originator won’t be able to pay out according to the policy or contract.  You had better know how much in reserve your partner has to cover these risks and what their total exposure is.  AIG sold contracts with 72 trillion dollars’ worth of exposure with almost no reserves and zero visibility to their clients or regulators.  Let’s put that in perspective, global economic output in 2011 was just under 70 trillion dollars. Lesson learned should be lack of regulation may allow for business innovation but that innovation may not be good thing for the unwise.  Always know your business partners.  Don’t accept what they say on its face.  Dig deep, analyze, if they have a problem disclosing information you need to be a wise investor, walk away.

That’s not to say that risk is a bad thing.  Risk is simply a fact of life.  Let’s define risk.  Risk can be defined as a noun meaning “a situation involving exposure to danger” or as a verb meaning “expose to danger, harm, or loss” Taking risks can result in a reward if the expectations are met or exceeded but result in loss if expectations are not met.  In business we often express risk in terms of probability such as 1/3 chance upside risk outcome, 1/3 chance of expected outcome, and 1/3 chance of downside outcome. Equations are developed for each of these three scenarios and a weighted outcome is calculated usually expressed as a return on investment. 

Strangely one of the best expressions of the benefits of risk was not expressed by a capitalist but a communist and not just anyone but The Communist Karl Marx.  He advocated that the flaw in Capitalism was that in any capitalist endeavor workers must be paid less than what the contributed to the bottom line in order for the Capitalist (entrepreneur or investor in modern usage) to make a profit.  By this definition even athletes or actors making millions of dollars per year are “exploited” because their employer is still making money.  By Marx’s definition only co-ops and not for profit organizations could ever be considered non-exploitive.  What Marx didn’t understand is this is the ultimate thing right about Capitalism.  Business owners put their capital on the line when they start the business, when they take a premium on what the workers contribute to the organization they are reaping the reward from their risk. 

The worker on the other hand is taking a discount on what his labor is truly worth because he is not taking as much risk.  He is the first one paid if a business fails, is usually paid sooner and more often than vendors, and he does not invest his own capital. The employee is not without any risk as his employment is not guaranteed nor is his wages fixed.  These all have to be determined by supply and demand in a free and open market place. Just as consumers and suppliers must assign a value to the utility they get from a purchase, employees and employers must assign values to the time, effort, and wages exchanged in the labor market.  Both sides must be free to change those values as their needs change.

Many conservatives express a lot of anger at unions for the contracts they sign with management.  Some of the worst of these contracts promise unrealistic continuation of benefits such as minimum number of workers, fixed wage rates, and benefits regardless of the financial health of the organization.  The thing to remember here is that management agreed to this.  They agreed to offload all the risk of the employee and take it on themselves.  Lots of reasons for this come to mind but the simplest are that times were good and they were short sighted enough to believe good times would last longer than the contract. This is one of those unrealistic promises people make.  Simply put even unions shouldn’t seek contracts that promise too much for too long with too little flexibility.  The company just won’t be able to keep their unrealistic promises.

A second form of unrealistic promise we buy into are pensions.  Pensions are usually classified as guaranteed benefit or guaranteed contribution.  Let’s look at the guaranteed benefit first.  Everyone needs a certain amount of money to stop working and retire.  Hence we have a risk situation: upside we have more money than needed to retire, expected situation we have enough to retire, and downside we have too little to retire.  In a defined benefit plan, the company promises to provide a certain level of retirement income based on some formula usually centered on your wages.  They calculated the amount of money they will need at your retirement time.  Then they discount this (the opposite of compounding interest) by some interest rate back to today’s dollars to determine how much they need to fund in the current period so that investment can grow until you reach retirement. The defined contribution plan varies because they instead guarantee they will contribute so much each year towards your retirement but do not guarantee how much in benefits you will get out of the plan at retirement.  The main difference is who will accept the risk that the investment won’t grow according to plan.  In a defined benefits plan if the rate of growth on the plan’s investments doesn’t meet or exceed the rate used to discount the amount needed to fund the benefits then the company must contribute more in the current period.  In a defined contribution plan, the employee accepts the risk of the plan not having enough to fund their retirement.  Currently most retirement plans are defined benefit plans but companies have made ridiculous assumptions about growth rates or other variables in the calculations to allow them to underfund these pensions. The lesson learned is to check what promises your company has made and see if they are making the contributions and using realistic calculations.  If not don’t expect your retirement to be comfortable.

The way we chose to deal with many of our largest risks in the last century has largely been through government. “The problem is we have socialized risk and privatized reward.”-(Sen. Christopher Dodd)  What do Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and virtually all other “entitlement” programs have in common? They all involve socializing risk and privatizing reward.  This also includes tax breaks for specific industries, bail outs, and preferential regulations for specific industries.  “We the people” are expected to bear the burden to make sure private citizens and corporations get to succeed regardless of what risks they took but they got to keep the rewards of taking those risks. Government has told the poor “you can’t afford healthcare?” That’s okay, we will take care of that.  Didn’t save enough for retirement? We got your back. You don’t produce an airplane anyone wants to buy? Don’t worry we’ll lease them for more than what you want to sell them for. Your competitor makes more than you? We’ll agree to additional regulations that benefit you! (Most regulations don’t come out of thin air or from citizen special interests, they come from rival businesses or industries seeking to straddle rivals with additional costs. If you don’t believe me, then look at who pays the lobbyists.)

The worst part of this is that many of these programs are essentially defined benefit programs.  Congress, in their infinite wisdom, wrote the laws creating Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as guaranteeing benefits rather than levels of funding.  Hence it isn’t as simple as they stop cutting checks to the beneficiaries.  Those beneficiaries are legally entitled to those benefits and if the US Treasury doesn’t fund them then it will just turn into a huge legal mess with the Supreme Court eventually citing the 14th amendment not allowing the government to repudiate its debts.
Reforming the programs to fit our current funding the is simplest fix but trying to cut these programs down to size is politically unlikely as most benefit senior citizens who reliably vote as a block against any attempt to cut their benefits.  Requiring a balanced budget might work.  Since these programs often require funding this would force massive tax increases.  That might produce consensus on how to reform these programs but would rob the government of short term funding needed for things like fighting wars or dealing with a large crisis.  No solution is easy or someone would have already implemented it. 

Another important thing to think about is that people bought into these promises and are depending on them.  If you think a Crunch is coming, then think about the situation if Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security suddenly ended (this is essentially what would have to happen to balance our federal budget).  How many people would die?  How many elderly would starve as their only source of income dried up?  How many children would go without any sort of medical care? How many elderly would die without their medications?
We can say that this should be left up to private charity but lack of private charity is what led to Federal Government taking up these obligations that are now strangling the country!  Remember Christ commanded love of your neighbor. Ayn Rand extolled reason over faith and self over others. Gordon Gecko said “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good”.  Christ said “…You cannot serve both God and money.” (Mathew 6:24).

Simply put, we can’t continue to make unrealistic promises and not deal with the risks of life.  It leads down a path of self-deception and folly.  We have to find ways to make this world hospitable to all in a way that doesn’t destroy our urge to better ourselves.

There as many opinions and even more guesses than those who are guessing about what will cause the collapse of the world as we know it.  There may be unexpected triggers in nature or in society such as natural disasters of a sudden or a gradual nature, geopolitical events or developments, or environmental triggers that may be natural or man made.  With or without any of these events and processes about which there is an enormous volume of speculation, my previous skepticism about one in particular has been transformed to a personal certainty.
 
Economic Collapse - Really?
 
The expectation that the economy may or will deteriorate beyond a typical recession is gaining wider acceptance every week. Let me explain why I am confident that this situation will become unmistakable within the next six to eighteen months. I will also discuss how serious this problem is likely to become.
 
Before we get too far into the discussion about what may happen in the economy, it is necessary to understand the nature of money and bartering.  Money is fundamentally a way to facilitate bartering among a large group of people.  When one person, lets call him George, needs something that a second person, lets call him Peter, can provide, George may try to offer something he owns in exchange for what he wants.  This may become difficult if the George does not have anything that the Peter wants.  The George is then left wanting unless he can arrange a series of trades or exchanges with other people until the George finally obtains something that Peter wants.  Another advantage of money is if George has something that Peter finds desirable, but there is a wide disparity between the values of the two objects being considered for trade.  For example let’s suppose that George has one too many cows and would like to obtain a hand saw from Peter who has an extra saw.  The difference in value of the two tradable items makes it unlikely that an easy trade will occur.   By this point I am sure you can see the advantage of having a reserve of money or currency to facilitate the transactions between George and Peter. 
 
Now before we get too sold on the advantages of using money, we need to examine the major issues about using money.  The first issue is how to determine the “value measure of money”, and the second is how to assure that the “value measure” of the money does not change unfairly.  To put these questions in plain English we can ask, “What is a Dollar worth?”  The second question is, “How do we know that a Dollar today will still be worth a Dollar tomorrow?”   Some of you may remember the economic atmosphere in the United States in the 1970s and early 1980s when the Dollar lost about half of its value in six years. (Many countries had far worse experiences before and during that time.)  Virtually every government, as well as a number of non-government groups, has grappled with those two questions throughout history.  The bottom line is that whatever methods have been devised for addressing these questions, it is the acceptance of and confidence of those using the currency that determines how effective the methods have been.  The biggest issue for those using the currency is, “If I hold on to or accumulate this currency for future transactions, can I be sure it will not lose value while I hold it?” When all is said and done, the value of any currency is measured by the level of confidence people have in that currency.
 
Now that we have considered the role of confidence in a money system, let’s consider factors currently affecting confidence in the U.S. money system.  As of July, 2012, the average American family had an annual income of $43,000 and an average debt of $117,950. In this study U.S. households numbered about 115,000,000.  That comes to a total citizen indebtedness of about $13.5 Trillion.  The national debt, on money already spent by the U.S. government, is now around $16 Trillion.  That put a total debt burden on the average U.S. household of $256,521 compared to an average income of only $43,000. While the total U.S. household debt was reduced in 2010, it increased again in the past year. This means the average household is currently not paying down their debt, but rather adding to it.  This situation is worsened by the fact that and the federal government is currently spending money at about twice the rate that it is taking in revenue, which means it would need to cut its non-debt servicing spending by 50% to keep from increasing the national debt.  Next consider that as of June, 2012, the national savings rate, that is savings divided by total income, was 4.4%.  That means the average household has no more than $1,900 per year that could be applied to the total debt (both paying down the national debt through additional taxes and paying down their personal debt.)  So, if the federal government suddenly cut its total budget in half, and if every household completely stopped saving any money for any reason (e.g. retirement savings) it would take 135 years to pay off the current debt. Remember, however, there are several additional concerns not considered in that calculation.  These numbers do not include any of the state governments’ debts, which the citizens are also responsible for paying. Another very big consideration is that most economists agree that cutting the federal government’s spending in half would surely trigger a serious recession, resulting in more job losses (laying off government workers and reducing government contracts which also pay for non-government jobs), and thus less money would be available among the American households to pay down all the debts.  Conversely, economists also understand that if the government significantly increases taxes in order to increase the revenues, this would also slow down the economy, which is already on the verge of a recession.
 
While the specific numbers are different, the same dynamics described above apply to most countries in Europe at this time.  When you read or hear in the news about the economic crisis in Greece and other European countries, the same issues of too much debt and too little revenue to pay the debts are at work there as they are here in the U.S. Many of these countries have already slipped into recessions as governments and central banks hold meeting after meeting to grapple with the problems that have “developed”.  When we consider how this may develop or play out and affect the United States it becomes clear that there are infinite possibilities as to events which may trigger various stages of deterioration in the economy.  Remember, that the key to a currency being valued or accepted at all depends on the confidence people have in that currency.  What follows is merely a simplified description of a possible sequence of events and the impact of that sequence on various economic activities. 
 
The European community will continue slipping deeper into widespread recession.  Europe , at least the majority of it, has gotten itself into a lose/lose situation.  Most European governments have accumulated a very high ratio of debt to revenue.  Furthermore, most of that debt (in the form of bonds), which is now considered risky because it is so high, is held by European banks and investors.  The economies in Europe , which have become highly enmeshed and this has been a factor in the spread of recession. With the slowing economies, as we discussed above, the revenues have decreased putting strains on government budgets as well as personal incomes. The final factor here is that a major portion of the gross “income” of the European people now comes from their governments. (If they raise taxes they cut personal incomes; if they cut government budgets, they also cut personal incomes.) As the banks and governments struggle to address the risks and economic issues the people continue to lose confidence in “the system”.  In order for the governments to try stimulating the economy, they must borrow to obtain funds to do so, because they were already spending more than they were receiving in revenue. As you can see this becomes a self aggravating cycle as the economies slow, the revenues drop, level of debt continues to rise, and the budgets are cut, etc.
 
While there may be solutions to these problems in the long term, opposing political forces, in the U.S. as well as in many other countries, seem to be focused on opposing strategies; both of which will only deepen the problems (remember our discussion of raising taxes and reducing government spending). Furthermore, even if the solutions, which are apparently unrecognized by the vast majority, were miraculously endorsed by the governments it would take years to repair the damage of the last century. 
 
At this time it appears that the economic situation in Europe will deteriorate ahead of the situation in the U.S.   Since the early 1970s the U.S. dollar has become the World Reserve Currency. We will explain the reason for that status a little later.  The important thing to remember here is that this status has kept the U.S. Dollar artificially high in value compared to other currencies.  As the European recession deepens they will experience growing inflation relative to the Dollar.  This will weaken the demand for U.S. goods, because of the inflating prices, and in turn weaken their ties with the U.S. Dollar.  The slowing economies in Europe will push more investors to redeem their U.S. Treasury Bonds in order to meet expenses.  When the redemption rate rises the value will go down, and yields (effective interest rates) will begin to rise.  While this higher interest rate might normally make the treasury bonds more attractive to investors, this will be caused by too many sellers and not enough buyers.  If the United States government continues to outspend its revenue, borrowing to cover its debts will get more and more expensive. This will make it harder and harder for the U.S. government to balance its budget.  As investors around the world learn from what has happened in Europe, they will also see the parallels in the U.S.
 
Gradually, at first, investors will be looking harder for other investments they believe are both safer and providing better returns (Actually, it is already beginning. China and Japan , the two largest non- U.S. holders of U.S. Treasury Bonds, have already started reducing their holdings in U.S. Bonds.).  As the confidence in the Dollar slips sellers of non-US products, such as oil or manufactured goods, will begin arranging to accept payment in non-US currency. (This has already started now, too.) This will further erode the perceived value of the Dollar.  During this time the market value of stocks may rise until investors begin to worry more about decreasing corporate revenues caused by the slowing economies... Concurrently the market pricing of gold and silver will continue to climb (as will the cost of other commodities like foods and fuel).  At some point it seems likely that the number of investors understanding the absurdity of the U.S. being able to pay off its debt will reach a critical level. This critical level will result in one of the periodic, blind auctions of U.S. Treasuries being a “failed auction”.  This means that there will be too few bidders interested in buying the number of bonds the treasury wants to sell (To put it another way - The U.S. Government states a need for it to borrow a specified amount of Dollars for continuing operations and auctions off what they consider to be enough bonds to pay for the governments cash needs. When they open the sealed binds, there are not enough large investors and small investors willing to buy all the bonds offered. That will result in the treasury not having enough money for the government to pay its bills and salaries.)
 
 If (when) this happens many investors around the world will “panic” because they will see other investors not willing to accept the risk of loaning money to the U.S. Government. These investors will see a need to sell their bonds before their value goes down. Gold and silver prices will begin to skyrocket as “safe investments” since the last, best safe haven, the U.S. Treasury, doesn’t seem quite so safe now. More and more investors will seek to sell their treasury bonds before the value drops even further, which will result in the value of those bonds dropping in value. 
 
I know that some will hear my projections and argue that the pricing or valuation of treasury bonds has fluctuated in the past without a panic in the markets. My response to them is, “THIS TIME IT’S VERY DIFFERENT!”   Normally when the market valuation on Bonds starts to fall, it is because the economy is accelerating faster, so investors are moving their money into stocks and business expansion. This time our economy is slowing rather than accelerating. This time , most economies in the world are decelerating or have already decelerated.  This time , our government has accumulated a far greater debt than ever before.  This time , Europeans have just recently become keenly aware of the dangers of a country carrying too much debt.  This time Europe will have already crossed over from primarily buying U.S. Bonds as a safe haven for their money to selling U.S. Bonds as a means of raising more cash.  When the pricing of U.S. Treasury Bonds starts to fall, all of their notions about them being a “safe haven” will quickly disappear.  This shift toward selling Treasury bonds will create accelerating inflation. This is another aspect in which “ this time it’s different .”  In the past when inflation heated up the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to cool off or slow down the economy.  This time interest rates will have already risen as a byproduct of the decreasing value of our bonds.  So the economy will be slowing down faster of its own accord.  Also, in the past when the economy has slowed down too much, our government has increased stimulus spending to correct that.  This time the government has already been providing extraordinary amounts of stimulus money for years, with less and less benefit. So you see, some of what makes this time different is that all of the tools that had been used in the past to manage a troublesome economy, have already been stretched to the breaking point or beyond in literally dozens of the largest economies in the world.
 
One more element that will make this time different is a little more complicated. When President Nixon took the U.S. off the Gold Standard in 1971, there was serious concern about the value of the dollar slipping since it was no longer backed in gold.  At that time Nixon also negotiated an agreement with Saudi Arabia for them to only accept U.S. Dollars in payment for their oil.  This resulted in the U.S. Dollar being kept artificially high in value relative to other currencies world wide, because everyone needed Dollars to buy oil. This is the primary reason the Dollar became the World Reserve Currency.  The petro-Dollar agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia crafted in the 1970s is still influencing the demand for U.S. Dollars throughout Europe.  Even though the demand for oil in Europe may slow as their economies slow, they will continue to need oil from Saudi Arabia (at least while Iran is a political pariah in Europe.)  The conditions created by that 1971 agreement are going to suddenly change this fall (2012). China, Iran, Japan, and Russia have reached a collection of agreements that will support international trade in oil and many other products in Chinese Yuan. This Fall a commodities exchange will be launched to facilitate transactions for oil and other materials in non-Dollar currencies. This will result in further downward pressure on the value of the Dollar.  As more people worldwide turn their attention to the economic developments, which they can no longer ignore, they will find out how the Dollar Printing Presses have been working far faster than could be justified by the increased production of the U.S. , which those Dollars were supposed to represent.
 
If all of that were not enough, there are some extremely well known and highly respected economists stating their belief that the world is, without it being officially announced, already engaged in mega-currency warfare.  Furthermore, China appears determined to play by a different monetary strategy than the U.S. and Western Europe .  China has in the last five years suddenly become the world’s greatest producer of gold and the greatest buyer of gold. It has also revealed itself to be the world’s largest holder of gold reserves. (The numbers provided by the CIA on their web site estimate Chin ’s real gold reserves are about twice as large as what China publicly revealed.   China has also publicly stated that the U.S. Dollar must be replaced as the world’s reserve currency. In addition, China and one of its new “special” trading partners, Japan , are known to hold nearly 15% of the total debt of the U.S. government.  There are other ways in which our own government has made our financial system inexplicably and seriously vulnerable to China specifically.   
. 
At some point, people in the U.S. will grasp the seriousness of their situation, and the fear of rapid inflation will begin to influence merchants and ordinary people in the U.S, They will begin to scramble for immediate cash before the “value of the Dollar” falls too far.  There have been instances of serious inflation (ten percent or more per year) in the U.S. within the last fifty years.  More and more economists are considering the possibility of super-inflation (more in the range of 100% per year) for more than a full year. At this rate the Dollar might drop in value to only 50 cents in one year, 25 cents in two years, and around 12 cents within three years.  So called hyperinflation (like in Germany in the 1920s) has actually occurred in a few countries within the last 60 years as well.  In those cases the hyper inflation was limited to a lone country or a very few countries at a time.   This time the underlying causes of super or hyper-inflation appear to be present in a wide multitude of countries across Europe as well as the United States . It therefore seems likely that this time super or hyper-inflation will not be limited by national borders.
 
Based on historical precedents, once this economic turmoil catches hold, for quite some time to follow (five to ten years, perhaps more), the prices on precious metals will continue to rise. As the effects of severe inflation take hold, steady flow and availability of things being produced (including clean water, food, fuel, electrical power, etc.) will become more erratic and unreliable. People will become desperate to acquire essentials when they are not readily available. The cost of many things will climb so quickly that people will eventually lose their ability to pay conventional currency for bare necessities.  The value of silver coins will rise along with the popularity of bartering. History has shown that when a paper currency looses its value rapidly, people will begin using either gold or silver coins instead.  If there are not enough of these coins to support continuing commerce people will develop a local consensus for another form of currency when barter is too inconvenient.  There will be even more bartering attempted while some people will try to differentiate between the value of paper money and coins, especially silver coins. There is an inherent issue with the continuing rise in the value of silver coins. Most silver coins have been removed from circulation over the last 50 years. Their lack of availability may or may not affect how widely they will be accepted as currency. Remember, the Value of any currency is primarily a function of perception.  The need for cash with which to buy essentials, and “real” items may eventually slow the gold buyers in many countries. At some point in time, due to both the international markets and the greatly lessened value of most currencies; the price of Gold may become too high to be a good, liquid currency asset.  It is very hard to predict how this issue will pan out during the difficult transition that follows.  Just remember that when people are starving, most will realize they cannot eat gold. At some point the value of gold will stop climbing and eventually (maybe in five years, maybe in fifty years) it too will decrease in value.
 
Eventually some form of currency will replace the current money, whether is a newly issued, devalued U.S. currency or some other currency, but it not without serious economic trauma.  There are already localized community groups that are creating currencies accepted by merchants in their locale.  The state of Utah recently passed a law stating that gold and silver are considered legal tender. The practice of bartering will obviously continue.  As a new or newly valued currency becomes more widely available and more widely accepted, currency transactions will eventually replace most but not all bartering transactions. Continuation of barter will gradually fade into more and more use of an agreeable currency, but how fast or slow is impossible to predict.  The man point here is that you need to remain alert to major swings in the value and the usability of various items used for barter, for currency, and for stored value.
 
How Bad Will It Get?
 
The most serious question is, “How bad will it get?”  No one really knows, but there are many, many guesses?  Everyone has their own guesses. Some base their guesses on calculations. Most use their imagination. Some try to project based on what they have seen, or read.  I will not try to impress you with my credentials for analyzing or predicting.  Let’s just say this is one man’s opinion, and I am probably either under estimating or over estimating the severity of how things will really work.  My best guess is that economically it will get at least as bad as the Great Depression in most of the U.S. and most likely much worse.  Also the response of the government(s) to the collapse and the political, sociological, and economic responses of the people to the difficulties will affect the progress of the collapse. I am quite certain that many cities will have riots because of angry and desperate people.  I was fortunate to not be in any of the cities where they occurred, but in the 1960s there were serious riots in many of the large U.S. cities. These riots were fundamentally about accumulated anger over difficult and frustrating conditions in certain sub-sections of those cities.  At the same time there were some riots that were purely political in origin.  I believe the difficulties, frustrations, and anger created by the economic turmoil ahead will dwarf what was going on in the sixties, and I was there in the sixties.  Even in the absence of riots it is very likely that gang activities and gang formation will be significantly elevated in many cities.   This will not be uniform across the country, nor will the government’s response to these troubles be uniform across the country.  I have heard genuine concerns about what the government might do, and the reality is that most of this is rumor, speculation, and conjecture based on many people trying to interpret bits of information they find disturbing.
 
What I do know (and this is not conjecture) is that the federal government does have documented plans for dealing with these kinds of anticipated problems.  A number of people claim to have found evidence of active preparations by government agencies that refuse to give reasonable explanations for those preparations.  It is a fact that these plans that are published designate responsibilities and authorizations for various government agencies and appointed positions that are new and / or altered from their legislated authority. It is also a fact that most of the details of those government Plans for responding to these potential problems are Classified and unknown even to the leaders in Congress responsible for oversight of those agencies that have been designated within the plans.  Some of the Plan documents do provide for such contingencies as troops being used for “law  enforcement”, and confiscation and control of any “important resources” including food, water, power, industrial resources, human resources, and more. There have been many questioning the legality of some of the measures described in the non-classified portions of those plans, but the Supreme Court by precedent will not hear a case until an attempt is made to enforce that law, and a suit regarding that enforcement has already been tried in a lower court.  I also know that ongoing polls being conducted indicate a significant and growing distrust of the people toward the U.S. government.  Whether you witnessed it or not, our government has in the past commandeered all of these resources and more.
 
There are currently a number of organizations and groups that are very concerned about some measures that were taken in New Orleans after Katrina.  Some of these organizations, based on interpretation of those events in New Orleans , have declared and published in advance their intentions to disobey specified types of orders that might be given to them by authorities in a declared emergency.  (My descriptions here are intentionally obtuse, because my own interpretation of the facts as I know them, and my knowledge of the veracity of a significant body of statements which have been issued by government entities have convinced me to be careful of what I say.)  I also understand, both through training and considerable observation, a lot about human nature. When faced with being deprived of access to things that are required for their survival; some people will simply give up, some will mentally zone out and follow the crowd, other people will resort to taking desperate and dangerous actions, and only a few will be prudent and deliberate about taking sensible action.. This is true whether the person is an individual in the community or an individual in a position of leadership and authority within the government.  Put that all together, and, it seems to me, you have a formula for a lot of very serious unpleasantness ahead.
 
I have tried to discuss here what I am expecting.  Could it be worse? Oh, yes. Could it be less sever than I described?  Well, that is possible.  I have observed over and over in nature and in history a phenomena sometimes called Tipping Points.  Some of you call this “the straw that broke the camel’s back”.  There are many factor that affect our ability to cope and recover from problems that come along.  When an event like I have described weakens a society, it becomes far more vulnerable to potential disasters, whether natural or man made.  As mentioned earlier, there are countless possibilities that can affect the scenario above by either accelerating or worsening the process.  For example, there is currently a severe drought in the “American Breadbasket”.  We are already being told that this will have a significant impact on both food prices and fuel prices.  What effect might that have on the stability of the economy?  If we have a major natural disaster, could that tip a whole series of dominoes?  There is continuing tension and turmoil in the Middle East . What about community frustration being worse in some regions than in others due to uneven availability of jobs?. What if  geo-political strife boils over somewhere and the effects are felt in multiple countries?  When you set aside ideological biases of historians, it becomes very clear that throughout history the primary cause of wars has been economic crises being exploited by ambitious leaders. How would any of that affect the anticipated economic collapse?  Only time will tell.  It is impossible to adequately prepare for every known possibility; much less for those events that you may not realize are possibilities.  We have a responsibility to ourselves, our families, and our friends and neighbors to prepare as well as we know how for what we can reasonably anticipate.
 
As you plan your preparations, consider one more concept. History shows that the greater the fall is the longer it takes to recover.   The markets take longer to recover from a 40% fall than from a 20% fall.  The recovery from the Great depression was much longer and more painful that the recoveries from any of the lesser recessions.  Some of the prudent economists have calculated that before this is over, the value of the dollar will have dropped 90%. Do not expect things to return to normal in just a few years.  Expect a completely new level of normal. With wisdom and hard work we can make the new normal gradually improve, but life is not normally smooth for very long.  As both the collapse and recovery drag on your  own self reliance balanced with your cooperation with other self reliant people will be crucial to the life you make for yourself, you family, your friends, and your community. Do not let your short or intermediate term preparations prevent your from preparing for long term issues.
 
Prepare well, keep your family safe, help your neighbors when you can, and help to assure that we get it right when the rebuilding begins.

Hello,
I'm wondering what the best method is to bulletproof my inherited Jeep Grand Cherokee. I'm 16 years old and I have inherited a Jeep Grand Cherokee and I'm planning on bulletproofing it for the coming apocalypse. I was wondering what the best materials and method would be to do so and approximately how much it would cost to do so if you have any guesses.

Sincerely,  - Noland

JWR Replies: The cost of effectively armoring a car is fairly high. To have it be effective, it is not a do-it-yourself job. Either  you have to massively beef up the suspension and use heavy materials (plate steel), OR you use lightweight but very expensive materials (Kevlar.)  And regardless, you have to buy some very expensive laminated windows. And you also end up with either sucky gas mileage or very sucky gas mileage.

I generally don't recommend armoring a vehicle, except for families in the US with a high profile that would put them at high risk of kidnapping.  For someone new to prepping, the $15,000 to $25,000 you'd spend would be much better spent on storage food, ammo, commo gear, medical supplies, garden seed, et cetera.

Dear Mr. Rawles,

Most of your readership is likely convinced that the coming decades (or years or months) will yield considerable social instability. The hard question is always what form it will take and when it is likely to happen. I found an article about ecological models that seem to describe past historical patterns with some degree of accuracy. From these models, their author is predicting another spike of instability around 2020.

 From the article:

"To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals starting with the U.S. Civil War is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator-prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history."

Just as with climate change, I am skeptical of the ability of any model to accurately predict such a complex system. However, just as with climate change, there's likely some truth to these models if they capture the essence of important system dynamics. Whether these predictions turn out to be accurate, only time will tell.

Best, - Mike X.

Dear Mr. Rawles,

I thought you might find these two articles on microgrid technology to be of interest. They raise the possibility that a well-organized community might be able to continue functioning even after a general grid failure:

How Power Outages in India May One Day Be Avoided

Microgrid Keeps the Power Local, Cheap, and Reliable

Also, major manufacturers are gearing up to produce a new generation of deep-cycle batteries that can be recharged thousands of times, further facilitating the creation of off-grid communities.

GE's Novel Battery to Bolster the Grid

Battery to Take On Diesel and Natural Gas

Thanks for your great site. Regards, - Dave T.

Sir:
Bob G. wrote on July 19th regarding pension obligations for retired government workers.  The implication seemed to be that they are excessively generous and should be cut.  I am a retired teacher and a taxpayer, so I have two dogs in this fight.  As a taxpayer, I want to hold the line on government spending.  As a retiree, I depend on the money I was promised for my livelihood.
Pensions are a contractual obligation backed by the 'full faith and credit' of government.  If government had properly funded the liability in the first place, the money to pay pensions would be there today.  That it is not cannot be laid at the feet of the retiree.  In Maine, at least, we paid in to our pension system with every check.  The state's contribution must be considered as deferred income, money we earned but were not paid at the time.  I took a pay cut to become a teacher because I felt it was a job that needed doing.  I did so with the understanding that my retirement was secure.  After 25 years, I receive 50% of my pay before deductions for health care, taxes and so forth.

Many state and local governments spent the money they should have set aside for pensions on other things.  As a result, for example, retirees have lost our cost of living allowance (COLA).  As time goes by, this could become a serious problem for many of us. 

A contract is a contract.  People like me planned their lives around the promises that were made.  I can't go back and get another career.  In this economy, I can't even get a job!  The money I receive from my pension is money I earned over a lifetime of hard work.  Good teachers put in as much time outside of school as they do in the classroom: in my case, about 60 hours a week, twelve months a year. 
If spending cuts are necessary, negotiate different arrangements in future and ensure they are fully funded.  And maybe, just maybe, before you cut pensions we should take a look at benefits that are paid but not earned. - Randy in Maine

JWR Replies: I agree that contractual promises should be kept. Obviously, what needs to be implemented are two tier systems. Any new hires would be enrolled in a scaled-back retirement system. The key change would be that retirement payments would not begin until age 65.

James:
I just read Warren Buffett's comments about municipal bankruptcies on the rise.  (See: Buffet Says Muni Bankruptcies are Set to Climb.) Much of the problem is the super generous retirement plans available to many state, federal and local government workers.  As always, a bit of common sense would help cushion the impact of this largess.

After 30 years of service workers are allowed to retire with a full pension.  Many retiring workers are still in their early fifties.  In many cases pensions are being paid out for 10-15 years before the workers are eligible for SS.  To put this into perspective, this results in pension payments (for this calculation I arbitrarily used $500 a month-still way too low) of between $60,000 to $90,000 in benefits paid before the workers goes on Social Security. If the present pensions were kept (still far too generous) and the workers required to begin receiving their pension benefits at age 65 (or whatever the Social Security retirement age is) it would cushion the impact of the insane pension costs.

An ex-government worker in my neighborhood is 82 years old and has been retired from his government job for 29 years.

BTW, I recently read that California's pension plans are underfunded by $62 billion dollars.  There is no way that this deficit can be made up.  The most logical scenario is that, when the younger workers reach retirement age, there will be no pension for them. - Bob G.

JWR:
I have read plenty of entries on your site about people using concrete block ("cinder block") for square foot gardening and raised bed gardening.  I didn't know how to post this so, I thought I would just email you this information.
 
I have been in the Concrete Masonry Unit (CMU) (Concrete Block) industry for almost 11 years.  I started as a yard hand and have recently worked my way up to Plant Manager and Site Safety Manager (two hats due to downsizing and the economy).  I see many people write about using these CMUs or cinder blocks to build raised beds and also to plant directly inside the cells of this block.  I am offering a warning of the possibility of poisons in this product and stressing that I would never grow my food in it.  The product Fly Ash is used as a Portland Cement replacement for up to 30% of the cement used to manufacture these products.  For those of you unaware, Fly Ash is a by product of burning coal.  The EPA is and has for the last year been doing a study to decide whether or not to label Fly Ash as a Hazardous Waste due to the high levels of mercury, arsenic, and lead; leaving some "Industry Folk" to refer to concrete as the "New Asbestos" or the "New Lead Paint".  Though there is no definite date set for a decision the ball has started rolling.  The EPA knows this product is unhealthy, I know this product is unhealthy (and wouldn't dare chance putting it into my children's mouth), and now you can make an informed decision on how you feel about it.  Just google "Is Fly Ash Toxic" and you will see all the information available on this material allowing you to make an informed decision of your own.  With all the trials and tribulations we face I would hate to know that I was poisoning myself with the very food I prepped to save me.
 
Blessings, - J.D. in Texas

Good Morning James,
The recent coronal mass ejection (CME) began interacting with the terrestrial magnetosphere earlier today. Though initially that interaction was rather subdued a rapid fall-off in the proton particle counters is actually leading to some rather elevated readings over at the Rice.edu monitor site. Polar convection, density and velocity are all registering in the yellow band, while the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) magnitude, angle and the dynamic pressure are all passed up into the red zones. It is worth remembering that a CME consists of hot, charged particles (ionized hydrogen primarily) and as such the situation is similar to the current in the wall of your house when a light switch is flipped on. At the fundament then a "current" of hot gas passing around the earth interacting with the geomagnetic field of same is virtually identical to an electric motor though the geometry seems different. It is the case that the total effect perpetrated on us, on the planet, by the passing of the electrically conductive cloud of hot gas and further, that gas's interaction with the geomagnetic field is an inductive phenomena.

It is easy to forget that when talking about induction we're not talking about relative magnitudes of the flow of the gas but instead the instantaneous rate-of-change of that flow as being central to the effects we here witness. Most especially the preceding applies when focusing on the magnetic aspects. To be sure, the incoming stream interacts with, and in part, is trapped by the Earth's magnetic field, altering it's velocity and transferring momentum as it does so to form the Van Allen belts above or heads, but it is the resulting magnetic fluctuations induced throughout that drive the actual changes in "earth currents" that were so ferocious during the Carrington Event.

If an X-20 erupted on the face of the Solar disk, even very near to the center thereof, the total effect upon us here some few minutes later (light-travel time scale) would be negligible though the subsequent arrival of the mass of ejected gas would be have frightening effects on our civilization.

If, on the other hand, an extremely high magnitude flare occurred - virtually anywhere on the face of the visible disk - say, an X-40 or greater - then a resulting EMP (like the detonation of a 20 megaton thermonuclear device high in the stratosphere) would likely have near-instantaneous effects on the distribution grid on the sun-facing side of the planet. It might well be the case that the installed safety subsystems at most generating facilities would act in time to prevent a catastrophic, effectively incinerating, effect on the facilities themselves, but it is a near certainty that the Very High Voltage transformers which upconvert energy from the generating facilities to voltages making long-distance transmission of electrical energy practical would be summarily annihilated. The problem that would arise in this circumstance is that there are now only two manufacturing
concerns left operating globally at present that manufacture these extraordinary pieces of machinery and the minimum lag-time from order to delivery is two years (presuming that all of the requisite materials are already on hand without supply chain interruptions and that they themselves have ample electricity available to them for the manufacturing itself). Simply losing the grids over one hemisphere would be bad, but losing them globally would be an incalculable catastrophe. Consider that if there is no way available to transmit electricity long distance point-to-point then how would we be able to remanufacture replacements for these units?
  

Leaving aside the fact that the effects would be the worst in the developed world, resulting in "flash" starvation of hundreds of millions of people - if not billions - as our wondrously efficient, woefully interconnected and critically dependent supply chains vanished like smoke in the wind, how could this happen then?

It could happen as the consequence of a large magnitude X-Flare followed by a subsequent - and necessarily, geoeffective - high magnitude CME. When the mass began interacting with the terrestrial magnetosphere enormous ground currents would be induced by the action of the hot sea of gas flowing around the planet. Also, as a consequence, large voltage potentials would be induced in the ground plane - to which every electrical device on Earth is directly connected. It would not be enough to simply throw the breakers in your fuse panel to isolate your house, business and so forth from Earth voltages and grid fluctuations. Fluctuations on the ground plane itself could/would easily destroy whatever yet remained attached. Disconnecting the ground strap from your your panel(s) to the ground plane would be equally necessary until the large scale fluctuations subsided beyond the event. The actual events involved in this would come upon us rather stealthily. As the ground currents surged there would be no blinding, instantaneous grid-wide failure, no. Instead, the currents through the ground plane traveling into the transformers would slowly, steadily heat the cores in their oil baths until the frail windings began to boil their insulating coatings off at which point massive shorting would occur. Given that the Earth itself is non-homogeneous in it's make-up, it is also the case that the pattern of failure would be equally heterogeneous. Specifically, places like the eastern seaboard, especially, Eastern Canada would see the first failures (Canadian Electric companies have installed strip-mall sized buffers after the 1989 loss to Solar activity and are now relatively safe) due to the hard-rock underlying the region, the Laurentian Shield. But as one failure occurred there would be another, and another, ad infinitum as a cascade of failures shifted further of the burden to the remaining operational grid. The logical conclusion of this process would be the destruction of virtually every High voltage unit globally inasmuch as unlike a Solar EMP which would effect the "day side" only (approx.) the ground currents in the CME case would be global in character.

An enormous "buzz" has developed over the last few years relative to "EMP" events of Solar or instrumental origin but in the case of solar this particular effect would be limited except as noted above. Thankfully, we have a vast distance between us and our warm, somewhat tempestuous neighbor and it is this distance that along with the atmosphere and magnetic field in which life here is mainly cocooned that preserves us. The initial open-air testing of the hydrogen bomb in the 1950s early 1960s in the South Pacific is of course when first we became aware of the effects that an EMP pulse might have upon us. I have read a report - somewhere, it escapes me at the moment - that during one of the tests, in which one of the larger devices was detonated, that parts, if not all, of the island of Hawaii lost power, had equipment failures virtually simultaneously as the weapon was detonated. It is for this reason that I call "bull" on those harping on the possibility of a middle eastern agency deploying an "atom" bomb over the US to destructive effect. Hear me out.

Fission bombs have an upper limit beyond which - no matter how much more fissile material is added - simply doesn't produce any further corresponding yield. Our scientists ran into this problem rather early on during America's primal nuclear efforts, this led to the development of the H bomb, [fusion] thermonuclear weapons as it were. H-bombs don't really have an effective upper limit as to the amount of yield which can be obtained...just build a bigger bomb. However, there is a catch: H bombs are really, really difficult to engineer. Without going into detail, suffice it to say that the geometry of the device and the timing of the explosives necessary to coax a fusion reaction out of ordinary, cold matter are formidable--extremely so. The largest thermonuclear device ever tested was the infamous "Czar Bomba", the "King of Bombs" detonated by the Soviet Union circa 1960, which was designed to produce a yield of 100+ megatons TNT equivalent, but was actually only tested with two of it's four cores in place for a nominal yield of 52 megatons. For any who need more about this just traipse over to YouTube and search for "Czar Bomba", great footage BTW. But I digress, the probability that someone other than a major nation-state could develop atom bombs is crazy-high, it is only necessary to laboriously render out enough fissile material from uranium and then slap it together. But the converse is equally and inversely true for thermonuclear devices for the reasons lined out above.

As an aside, while I've been typing this, the polar convection graph over at stanford.edu has shot right up, as has the graph for interplanetary magnetic field. The figure being shown for the convection is nearly off the graph as it is currently scaled. It's about 02:30 CST [Sunday, July 15, 2012] and as I look now the Polar convection is actually above the numbered range on the graph, like when your going faster than your speedometer can show you, the IMF being 'way up there too. I expect that there might be some unhappy northern latitude utility company executives in the morning, the polar convection figure is still getting worse. If I read it right, pushing 280 Kv or more, been up there for quite a while now.

As always, May the Lord Bless and Keep us, His Children, everyone. - J.E.B. in Missouri

Mr Rawles,
I have a few comments after reading the guest article by Max Velocity on small team tactics. I realize the author's perspective is colored by his time in Afghanistan and Iraq, but there are some issues I have with his article.

The first is the Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) is not the same IED he described in the Off-route section. The EFP is formed by the Miznay-Chardin effect, not the Munroe effect. The EFP (Miznay-Chardin) is a solid slug or can be fragmented by various means, but is not a molten jet of metal (Munroe). The Munroe effect, or shaped charge, works best in contact situations (it is the kill mechanism by which the RPG works), where the warhead contacts the target. At distance, it often turns into what has been termed as an "incoherent spray," where the jet breaks up before it strikes the target. This effect is so pronounced that vehicles in Afghanistan use cages to break up the spray inches from the armor, for those occasions where the warhead isn't damaged to the point of malfunctioning. Miznay-Chardin charges use a shallow plate to form the slug, which is not molten, and lance thru armor. These devices are generally only defeated by more armor or reactive armor.

Second, a vehicle-borne IED doesn't have to be so large as to affect the suspension of a vehicle to the point of noticing it. In places like Iraq and Afghanistan, the maintenance done on automobiles is spotty at best, and is generally only done to the point of keeping the vehicle running. Putting decent shocks in a vehicle is often a pipe dream. A charge of 200 pounds (about the weight of a person) will generally not affect the ride or stationary characteristics of a vehicle to the point of being noticeable, yet is a large enough charge to do plenty of damage.

IEDs are probably not a real threat to the G.O.O.D. crowd, because any benefit (other than just causing mayhem) would be lost, because a civilian vehicle's contents would probably be irreparably damaged if it was attacked with an IED much larger than three to five pounds. I'd be much more worried about small arms ambushes (which were not really covered) and things like spike strips or caltrops. These things would immobilize a vehicle and allow the vehicle and contents to be recovered relatively intact.

The author's point about forming a convoy is a good consideration, but my nuclear family (husband, wife, two kids) would be hard pressed to provide good on-road security for itself, because my sons are just over and just under 10 years old. I can't expect them to perform even as well as a 16 year old. They can't really drive, nor can they shoot with the level of fire they'd need to in a contact. You'd really need to band together with at least one other family, hopefully taking two or three vehicles.

The method of providing security is suspect as well, because not every vehicle suitable as a G.O.O.D. vehicle has a sunroof to provide something resembling 360-degree fires during a firefight. The author's perspective is again colored by his experiences. I don't own an armored pickup or SUV, and would have to rely on speed and my driving to get myself out of an ambush or attack.

And, to give you an idea of my experience, I spent a year in Afghanistan running missions outside the wire. Sincerely, - Major K.

I have been a soldier for all my adult life: infantry, special operations and as a civilian security contractor. More recently, I have got into prepping for the survival of my family. I have been working slowly at it, and reading and researching a lot of the publications and related blogs. Given my background, I have a head start in the security area, but many have huge head starts over me in the other desired and required skills that will be essential to survival. I have a lot to learn and a lot to catch up on. However, I would like to contribute my two cents worth where I can.

The more I read, the more I form the opinion that certainly not all, but perhaps “some” or “many” preppers out there are making the simple mistake of thinking that with the subject of security, they can simply “tick the box”. Preparing for the protection of your family cannot be simply taken care of by having guns; not in the same way that hunger can be taken care of by stocking food. It is simply not sufficient to exercise your right to bear arms and own guns, without being tactically proficient. Even for the good shots, that is not the same as being able to perform tactically. The kind of tactical challenges that you will face post-SHTF will be in a different league to, for example, confronting an intruder in the dead of night with your handgun or shotgun. Think marauding gangs of looters, going from house to house, raping and killing. Even if you have a remote retreat, you will need tactical know-how at some point. I also believe that there will not only be a need for family and friend units to protect themselves, but if the collapse is ongoing for some time there will be a need to create tactical teams to conduct necessary operations to protect your area of operations and retreat from whatever threats emerge.

Reading through forums and articles I see many of the same questions out there about what techniques to use, how to defend yourself, your loved ones and your home, and similar. I hope to answer these questions. Also, the book takes you from tactics for survival of yourself and your family, including vehicle movement and defending your home, through to small unit tactics. These small unit tactics require the training of tactical teams and would form the basis of a group that you would use to conduct operations post-SHTF to defend your location, compound or small town. This compendium of infantry, special operations and close protection tactics would also allow you to carry out an effective American Insurgency against invading enemies, foreign or domestic, into the post-SHTF vacuum.
 
As an example, as part of my career in the military and security, I spent five years serving as a security contractor in both Iraq and Afghanistan. This included working on contract for the US Government in Iraq, a year of which was based out of Fallujah, the rest variously based out of Baghdad and country-wide, and also two years working for the British Government in Helmand Province and Kabul, Afghanistan. These roles were operational security roles that included exposure to multiple training methods and operational schools of thought, as well as both high profile and low profile mobile operations across Iraq and Afghanistan. In my book, I have incorporated a lot of the techniques and experience that I learned in both high and low profile movement in these combat theatres into techniques that you can apply to moving your family and conducting any type of post-collapse vehicle movement.
 
If you find yourself packing up your family in a "get out of Dodge" situation, then there are a number of factors to consider. The number of vehicles and personnel in your convoy will have a knock on effect to tactical potential, which will is discussed in more detail. However, to introduce the concept here: one vehicle gives you limited load carrying ability and no redundancy. If you are a standard type family you likely have a couple of cars. Take both. If you have the ability to take three cars and have a driver and security in each, then take them because you will 1) spread out your personnel so that there is less risk with the destruction of one vehicle 2) increased redundancy if one vehicle breaks down or is immobilized 3) increased your tactical options, which we will cover in detail in the chapter on vehicle operations, and 4) greatly increased your load carrying ability, perhaps without having to use a trailer which will benefit mobility.
 
One of the big threats faced in Iraq and Afghanistan is the Improvised Explosive Device (IED). We hope that this will not be a primary threat in a WTSHTF situation in the Continental United States, and the manual does not concentrate on them for this reason, but they may either be used in a limited fashion by certain groups or become a widespread threat in an insurgency type situation if one develops, for whatever reason. Here are a few interest points on IEDs:
 
IEDs come in various sizes and the effectiveness of an IED depends on large part as a function of size and placement, as well as accurate targeting. IEDs can be connected in a “daisy chain” and usually placed to match the anticipated spacing of vehicles in convoys, to cause maximum damage. IEDs can be initiated in a number of ways:
 
• Command Wire (CWIED). A physical connection between the initiation point (Firing point (FP) and the CWIED itself (Contact Point)); the need for this connection can aid in detection of the device and the FP.
• Remote Control (RCIED). The RCIED is detonated remotely using any one of multiple options. It can be anything from a cell phone to a garage door opener. This increases the enemy’s options for placement and FP, without the need to be physically connected to the device. This can make it harder to detect the device.
Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). Simply put, the IED is inside the vehicle. This type of IED will usually be remotely detonated, or can be on a timer (exception: see SVBIED, below). The VBIED allows for mobility and placement of large IEDs. However, they can be detected: a simple example can be a car that is packed with Home Made Explosives (HME) and therefore the suspension is weighed down, making the vehicle suspicious as it sits parked at its placement point.
 
Off-Route Mine: (A targeted IED capable of defeating armored vehicles)
 
• The off-route mine is very effective and can defeat many types of armor. It uses the “Monroe effect”(shaped charge) to create a molten jet of metal that will pierce armor, causing damaging effects inside the vehicle as it passes through. The Monroe effect places explosives in behind a metal cone or dish: on detonation, the cone inverts and melts into a stream of metal. This is the same effect used by a standard RPG, with the exception that an RPG detonates on contact with a vehicle, whereas the Explosively Formed Projectile goes off several feet away by the side of the road.
• The effect of the device can be devastating but usually limited in scope. It will pass through armor, and there have been multiple circumstances of these devices causing traumatic lower limb amputation of personnel in the driver and front passenger seats of vehicles, but personnel in other compartments being left unscathed.

Victim Operated Improvised Explosive Device (VOIED). This type of IED is detonated by the actions of the victim. In order to be effective the IED will usually target a location that is known to be used by coalition forces. VOIEDs can be anti-personnel or anti-vehicle. The type of location targeted would usually be somewhere that locals could avoid, but that forms a channel for military personnel or vehicles. These devices, or the corresponding safe routes, may also be marked, often in unusual ways, similar to the way that mines are often marked in the Balkans i.e. piles of rocks, sticks, cloth tied to markers etc.
 
About The Author: Max Velocity is the pen name of a former Special Forces soldier and private security contractor. He is the author of the nonfiction book Contact!: A Tactical Manual for Post Collapse Survival.

Jim,
My wife and I were heading back from cabin in the Northern Arizona mountains Saturday (July 7) afternoon and were stopped by a nice elderly lady who worked for the Forest service (vehicle
parked across from her) on a forest road. She handed me a new Coconino National Forest map and said “if the roads are not shown on this map then it is closed and that each year they will come out with a new MVUM (motor vehicle use map) and the same applies. So, if the road is not shown, then it is consider closed. I said why not put up closed signs or barriers so we can see and she said they will just get moved or destroyed. She also said it is your responsibility to know which roads are closed via their maps. Rather than sit on the road questioning/argue with her (just the messenger) I figured I would look over the map when I got home.

After getting home I looked over the map and its purpose (written rules) and what it says: Violations of 36 CFR 261.13 are subject to a fine of up to $5,000 or imprisonment for up to 6 months or both (18 U.S.C. 3571(e)). This prohibition applies regardless of the presence or absence of a sign.

It’s a National Forest and they will close forest roads (no signs/marked) which they deem and we are responsible to know by it not being shown (drawn) on their maps. Just out diving I do not look at a map. I just take whichever road is there and drive. I do not make new ones or drive across fields unless to retrieve downed game which is authorized. I could see if they were doing it for reclaiming the forest to it’s natural order or fire restriction however if you read into the rules and such (on the map) it outlines a lot more plus where you can camp. A lot of roads are missing from this map (Flagstaff, Arizona area) so if you hunt, camp or sight see look out because it is already in effect, as of April 2012.

Again, it is our National Forest (tax dollar funded) and they are going to tell us what roads to drive and where we can/can't camp? Whether you agree/disagree with off road travel, camping and quads this is pure crap.
Install barriers (post/rocks) up on areas you wish to reclaim not just delete the road from a map (only theirs) which will change yearly and make it the public's responsibility to know. I am sure this is happening in other
national forest however I just happened to be traveling through Coconino National Forest. I am writing to the forest heads and our congressmen because soon we will lose all rights of our National Forest! It’s just the beginning of our limited use of our forest in which we pay for along with their paychecks!

For more information, see this editorial in The Arizona Republic Friday, July 13, 2012: Rules a burden for hunters. - Regards, - Steve E.

Hi Jim;
To tie in with your recent comments, the excellent Western Rifle Shooters blog linked to an article on refugees.

Though the article was brief, it had some good information. While the goal is to never become a refugee in the first place, in some cases it cannot be avoided and it pays to know what to do in such a case.

I was particularly inspired by the links to some "off-road" gear carriers. The first is a home-built model and is quite simple while the other is a German-engineered commercial model.

I have given a good bit of thought into what I would do in a true grid-down situation, such as EMP, when motorized transportation is not available. Our retreat is about 40 miles away if accessible via freeway, but about 60 miles if back roads are taken. While many of our supplies have been pre-staged at the retreat (where someone lives year-round), there are things we will need to take with us should we have to Shank's Mare it.

For this reason, I do have a two-wheeled bicycle trailer that has been modified to be attached to a backpack frame, placing the weight on the hips and shoulders. After seeing the aforementioned German model, I have some new ideas I want to try. A homemade version of their design would be very straightforward to build.

However, this is a last-resort option. If the time comes to bug out, I'm planning on driving first, biking next, and walking only if there is no other choice. Thanks, - Jason R.

James:

[ Sunspot] 11515 started out squirrely, was and remains same.

The X-output has actually started to resume a slightly more regular decay at this point, not completely but still at least a change in the right direction. I was actually typing a brief update on the "Fading" 11515 and the newly enumerated 11520 ( old 11504) after the M-6.9 earlier when the output rose, fell back, and then rose again. THIS is not the behaviour we'd be expecting just after the previous flare. We would be expecting a precipitous drop  (a spike type) or alternately a long steady, concave-up decay were the flare of the LDE type but this, no. The post-flare levels are at around C-5.5 though with each iterative 1min update additional decay is visible. As to the specifics, the full spectrum of flare warnings were generated at NOAA by this; Types, II, IV and tenflare, see the attached text for further specific details.  Though I can't seem to find where I just filed it, NOAA also reported a very high plane-of-sky emission speed for this event, when I find it I'll pass it along.

NOAA has gotten around to re-enumerating old 11504 as stated so at least we have a valid current reference.

NOAA 11520 is very large, NOAA only list the area as 510 SM whilst Solen gives a 1500 figure. I'm still not sure where the endless discrepancy between these two arises from but NOAA gave a figure for 11515 of 780 SM at the most recent update at about 00:30 this morning and 11520 is much larger by any objective measure. Thankfully, 11520 has been relatively quiet producing as yet only a low M-class event more than 24 hours ago. This is not to say that it should be ignored; A very large negative polarity region central to the spot is boiling with magnetic potential. That potential is confirmed by examining the HMID Doppler which clearly shows significant, large  magnitude "feathering" in that region in the images. Wow, is this the month for weirdness or what? Oops, the NOAA graph is tipping up again, more later as warranted. - J.E.B. in Missouri

We are now entering what I call the Red Zone. Society as we know it is like a high performance race car. It  has many moving parts and some of them are very delicate. Right now that race car is in the red. The RPMs are being pushed to their max and it's just a matter of time before something has to give or break. The greedy are the ones that are pushing the pedal and they show no signs of slowing down. The incident that just happened in Greece is like the check engine light coming on. Instead of stopping and fixing the problem, the greedy just keep going.

Every society since the start of mankind has collapsed, ours is no different. It's not a matter of if just a matter of when. From the looks of things, that when is not too far off. We are in a downward spiral and it is getting faster and deeper. Some say that we are past the point of no return, I hope they are wrong. If we are past the point of no return you better have your Three Bs ready: Bullets, Beans, and Band-Aids. In this essay I'm just going to address a few things about those three. I'm not going to elaborate in detail, as there are plenty of articles on the given subject,  but merely my 2 cents worth.

Bullets

Mr. Rawles has stated that guns are like tools, there is no one perfect gun. Just like there is no one perfect tool. You need a specific tool for each given task.So I'm not going to use a folding ruler to hammer a nail down and I'm not going to use a hammer to screw in a flat head. Guns are the same way, I'm not going to use a .50 BMG to go rabbit hunting, just like I'm not going to use a .22 to go moose hunting.

This question has been asked many times, if you had to pick one and only one gun in a bug out situation what would it be? My answer would be the AK-47. In a WTSHTF situation the primary purpose of the gun is to protect yourself and your loved ones. The secondary purpose is to kill game to provide food. You can have all the resources in the world but if you have no means of protection then sooner or later someone will come and take them by force, both your resources and your loved ones. Don't let that happen!

So why the AK-47? A buddy of mine, Jason H., said it best: "The d%*n thing is nearly indestructible. It's good for 200-300 yards out and how many people can even make that shot under stress? There is a reason that over 75 million of them have been made and there is a reason that they have been used in every war since they were made."

The AK-47 has a reputation of being "the bad guys gun." The gun itself is not bad it's the person behind the trigger. Most westerners have been brainwashed with this concept via Hollywood. The bottom line is that it works. In most other countries the AK is a symbol of freedom. When your life is on the line, would you trust a gun that has been around for over 60 years and is tried and true or some concept gun that has been around for a few years?

So, once, again why the AK? It is low maintenance, reliable, affordable,  can be field stripped and reassembled quickly with no tools and you can literally put, a thousand rounds through it before cleaning. Though, I don't recommend this, it can be done. Some other guns jam after 100 rounds in dirty field conditions. You can drown it, drag it through mud, bury it in sand and even run it over and it will still work.

If for some reason, one can not obtain an AK-47. Your next best bet would be an SKS (Simonov carbine.) There are many similarities between the two-the main one is ruggedness. The SKS has two main shortcomings. First, they come stock with a fixed magazine, this can be remedied by TAPCO's semi-detachable [20 round] magazines. Secondly, they have been know to slam fire. Inherently any automatic or semi-auto has the potential to slam fire. However, the SKS is known for this. Why? Because the firing pin stops itself on the cartridge base itself [and the firing pin is free-floating, without a spring]. The ammo with "soft" primers that is most commonly used today is sensitive to light strikes from the firing pin. The most common cause for the slam fire is not cleaning the cosmoline off the rifle. If you fire several hundred rounds through an SKS without cleaning it could also cause a slam fire. A simple remedy for this would be to install a Murray Firing Pin (spring loaded to prevent slam fire).

Mr. Rawles has often said, that just because someone owns a surf board doesn't mean they know how to surf. So where would one look for training on the AK-47? There are tons of books and videos on marksmanship, however, if you can't get yourself in position to take the shot then they are useless. Most tactical guns such as the AK are shot on the move in a combat situation. BTW, I don't like the term, "assault rifle." The AK-47 as well as the SKS were not meant to "assault". Nobody in their right mind ever bought a gun and said, "Man, I can't wait to assault someone with this!" So what would be good material for this particular gun? I would recommend the DVD titled Beyond The Firearm Part II by Sonny Puzikas [, a former Spetsnaz trooper.] It has lots of useful information.

"Anything that is complex is not useful and anything that is useful is simple. This has been my whole life's motto." - Mikhail Kalashnikov

These are words to live by in a WTSHTF situation. There will be times when you do not have time to think only react, such as when the bad guys are almost on your doorstep.

Beans

There are three macronutrients that the human body needs, protein, fat, and carbohydrates.

All are important, but, of these three, in a survival situation the carbohydrates would probably be the most important. The reason being is that the human body is made of between 60-70% water. The word itself carbohydrate has the word hydrate in it. The main fuel of the human brain is sugar (simple carbs). Therefore it only makes sense to stock up on carbohydrates while you still can. They will be hard to come by in harsh cold environments. My personal advice would be rice and plenty of it. It is cheap and you can buy them by the pounds at Costco. Buy the bags and put them in 5 gal. buckets along with dry packets of silica (this will absorb the moisture). Another good item for carbs that last long is oats. For the simple carbs. I would recommend honey, honey in its purest form will last hundreds of years.

The protein and fat you can get from meat. Because the power grid will be down, there will be very few ways to store the meat during summer months. This is where salt and a dehydrator come into play. The old school philosophy was if you don't hunt and kill the game, you don't eat that night. In a WTSHTF situation to hunt would be a waste of time, energy, and effort. You are better off baiting and trapping the game.

There are several methods to trapping-dead falls, snares, cage traps, etc. Of them all the snare takes the least amount of time, energy, and effort, best of all it is cheap and light weight to carry. To set a snare near your bait (such as your garden) can be done quickly. This will eliminate both pests and provide food, you are killing two birds with one stone. They are light weight and quick to set up. Some people argue that a snare is inhumane and in our current society I will agree with that. However, WTSHTF it is more inhumane to let your family starve to death. You bait the game, set up the snare, and check it once a day. If you catch anything you have your protein and fat to feed your family.

Your MREs will only last you a short period of time. The basic premise for humans is that if it crawls flies, walks, swims, or slithers it probably can be eaten.

Remember this Latin proverb: "Aut Agere Aut Mori." ( Either Learn or Die.)

Band-Aids

There are many aspects of this concept that can be perceived, what I'm trying to focus on here is something that a lot of people may have overlooked: antibiotics

Most people have their basic First Aid kit and what not, but what about virus and bacteria?

The first thing that one needs is alcohol...this kills 99% of all bacteria-however, it does not kill staph and MRSA. For this, one needs to stock up on antibacterial soap. I recommend hand soap and dish washing liquid if it does not say antibacterial on it, it's garbage. Right now it's estimated that 30% of the north American population has MRSA and does not even know it, because it can lay dormant in your system for X amount of time.

Of everything since the beginning of human existence, virus and bacteria have killed more of the human population than all other unnatural reasons combined...

The Black Plague is estimated to have killed between 30-60% of Europe's population in the mid-1300s.

Small pox is estimated to have killed 300-500 million between 1914-1977...

The first thing is where to get them without a prescription...the answer is at your local feed store or online. But your not getting human antibiotics you are getting fish antibiotics. Fish and human antibiotics are the same thing. There is no difference. But please note the warning that it is not for human use, it is for your fish.

Obviously, if you don't know what your doing you are going to kill someone. Some good books to get would be:

"The Handbook of Antibiotics"

"Antibiotics Simplified"

"Do-It-Yourself-Medicine: How to Find and Use the Most Effective Antibiotics, Painkillers, Anesthetics and Other Miracle Drugs...Without Costly Doctors Prescriptions or Hospitals"

Which antibiotics should one get? Cephalexin (Keflex) would be the number one-this antibiotic can usually handle the vast majority of infections out there. The next two would be Amoxicillin and Erythromycin, then Sulfamethoxazole. Some others to think about are:

Ampicillin
Ketoconazole
Penicillin
Metronidazole
Tetracycline
Doxycycline

Needless to say the antibiotics should be stored in a cool, dry, dark place. Except for tetracycline, the expiration date that is marked is not the real date but the recommended date. Bear in mind that when they do the testing they are subjecting the drugs to the worst conditions possible, heat, humidity, and direct light. Most drugs are good for 6 months to 1-1/2 years after the expiration date. Some say longer-check out "A Doctor's Thoughts on Antibiotics, Expiration Dates, and TEOTWAWKI, by Dr. Bones in the search bar.

There are many viruses that can easily kill the human race, the Black Plague and Small Pox almost did. In a WTSHTF situation where there are no hospitals and medicine, it quickly becomes a YOYO situation. These are of the viruses that we know of. There are many viruses out there that we haven't even identified much less found a cure for. The nature of any virus is like that of a human-to survive. They do this through mutation and building tolerances to certain drugs and antibiotics. This is how MRSA evolved from the common staph infection.

The current pop culture has adopted the whole zombie apocalypse theme. It is somewhat of an amusing theme. The dead are walking, which of course will never happen. However, consider this for a minute. Some people believe that the demise of the human race will come from a "Doomsday Virus." Biological warfare has been used since before the time of Christ. Do a web search for yourself.  In the movies Quarantine 1 and Quarantine 2 the "zombies" were really living people that contracted a virus that caused aggressive behavior and insanity, that was transmitted through saliva. Much like the rabies virus.

How far-fetched would it be that a biologist somewhere has been working on splicing the rabies virus with say a 24 hour stomach bug to make it fast acting? Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that when society collapses that zombies will be coming after you. What I'm getting at is that there are many viruses out there and some are worse than others.

The rabies virus does exist and in a WTSHTF situation, there will be no hospital to go to if you are bitten by an animal that has rabies. There will be no series of shots to be administered. You will be on your own. That would be a very painful way to die.

To anyone reading this, I love my family and I love my fish. Stock up while you still can on the three Bs.

As hundreds of thousands of acres are burning all across Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona and Wyoming, as I write this article, the smell of smoke wafting through my window has caused me to think about the many thousands of people that have retreated to the Redoubt. While I have no way of knowing how many folks have relocated from parts other than the Rocky Mountain west, I suppose that many are not familiar with the devastation a forest fire can cause; nor how quickly the devastation can occur. I also can only assume that most of the Redoubt folks that have relocated have taken many precautions to make their retreats as inconspicuous as possible. Many, for very good strategic reasons, have probably built on a ridge or high point. I’m certain that retreat cabins have been designed to blend in to their surroundings; many are probably built of logs – if not logs from the property, then logs that have been trucked in. I would bet that many are on deep wells, with a majority of those providing less than 10 GPM. While I’m assuming on the common profile, I would also make an educated guess that many of the retreats are a fair distance from a town, more commonly off of a U.S. Forest Service road or timber company road, both cut through the middle of heavily forested areas.

A little as to background: I have spent nearly two decades in Idaho - over half of that time working as a mule-packer/guide in the River of No Return Wilderness. Many other years were spent working on ranches that backed up against the Beaverhead Mountains in Montana. I have fought fires, not as a trained Forest Service firefighter, but in the course of life in the professions that I had chosen. I have raced my mules through the middle of fires that had sprung up ahead of us without my knowledge; I have ridden back through that same fire nearly three months later to find it smoldering and crouching like a dragon, just waiting for conditions to tempt it out of its sleep. I have not pulled camps in a fire zone after a foot of snow had fallen and extinguished it – only to have to pull it three weeks later with ember and ash falling on us, because the foot of snow was nothing more than a very temporary slow down. The weather warmed up again and the warm earth in late August melted the snow very quickly, as if it never fell. I have trailed horses through areas when a fire was fifteen miles away, only to find out that the very trails we rode on were torched three days later by a fire that was jumping a mile ahead of itself (see Runaway Ridge Fire – Cold Meadows Ranger Station). In a nutshell, I have been on the periphery of a lot of fires. I have packed out a lot of smoke jumpers and hotshots when the Forest Service used to fight fire in the wilderness areas, and listened to their tales of crowning fires that seemed to create their own wind. I have ridden along trails above fires listening to massive yellow pines and Doug firs literally exploding from the heat. I’m not an expert on fires, but I am pretty experienced with them.

To the point of the article, there is real and present danger to retreaters who have built their places in the locations described above. Typically fires will race up ridges; then will get pushed along down the backside with wind direction. The speed of this obviously varies on fuel load, humidity, wind speed, etc. A fire can engulf homes sitting along ridgelines faster than anyone would ever believe. I can’t stress this enough. If there is a fire in the area, and if it is moving towards your retreat, please be very wary. There will not be time to do much of anything. Staying or leaving is up to you, but what will you do? Have you cleared undergrowth and trees back several hundred feet from your home? Do you have a metal roof that might spare you from falling embers? Have you installed a cistern or reservoir of some sort with hoses, hardlines and pumps? I can assure you that a well delivering any flow, much less 10 GPM, through a yard hydrant and garden hose will be like, well, relieving oneself. What about your ability to get out of Dodge (as in going back to Dodge and away from the retreat)? Can you be certain that the fire hasn’t made your Forest Service or timber company road impassable? Do you drive across a timber bridge many miles from your retreat each day? What will you do when that bridge is gone? Do you want to be caught in the middle of an inferno in your “Bug Back Vehicle”?

In case some of you are thinking, “This won’t happen here”, let’s take a quick look at some brief history. Nearly everyone has heard of the fires of 1910. Most of western Montana was burning. Many homes and ranches were engulfed. That was before the Forest Service had trained firefighters. In fact, that fire was the impetus to develop the Forest Service. Never again they said will we be short of manpower and supplies to fight this natural, regularly occurring event. Everyone remembers the Yellowstone fires of 1988. Hundreds of thousands of acres tore through Yellowstone. The Forest Service with support from the military threw everything they had at this fire with no gains in containment – at least not enough to change much. Not until the cooler fall temperatures and precipitation came along, did this fire get extinguished. How about the year 2000? Do you remember the famous photo [by John McColgan] of the two cow elk standing in the middle of the Bitterroot River while the landscape around them was fully engulfed and glowing an eerie, smoky orange? In that year 7.4 million acres burned in just two states, Idaho and Montana! It was absolutely apocalyptic in nature. All summer and fall, tens of thousands of Forest Service personnel, along with help from various tribal ranger districts across the west lived in massive tent camps in numerous locations across Idaho and Montana. Even the USMC sent troops in to help. In that year, even if your retreat was unaffected by fire, if it was along the route to a section of the fire, a sharp young Marine at a roadblock would have determined if you were allowed to pass or not. Notice the big gap in history between 1910 and 1988? Some of the gap is due to this history coming off the top of my head! In reality though, the gap exists because the Forest Service policy was to fight every fire. I’m not meaning to offend anyone, but I believe they got caught up in the same “spend it or lose it” budget planning that has helped bury this country in debt. Their policy was to extinguish any reported fire by 10:00 AM the following morning. Imagine the resources necessary to accomplish this goal. Even in the primitive areas, then designated wilderness areas after the passage of the Wilderness Act in the 1970s, every fire was fought. Fire lookouts were built on every prominent point throughout the wilderness and surrounding forest areas. These lookouts ranged from glorified tree houses to extensive steel structures anchored in concrete footings. I’ve been in several of these fire lookouts, and became friends with several of the lookouts themselves. These loner type individuals would stay in their lookout from June until October, everyday, 24/7. If a fire was spotted, triangulations were called in and within hours, tankers, smoke jumpers or Hotshots were called in to extinguish. The amount of fuel that continued to build up due to this “10:00 AM” policy was astronomical. During the Clinton years, for budgetary reasons, this policy was changed for the wilderness. No longer would fires be fought in wilderness areas. The “let-burn” policy was put into effect and since then we have seen nature burning through the fuel load.

Is your retreat on the border of a Wilderness Area? At this same time, the Clinton “Roadless Initiative” was passed. Well-meaning folks across the political spectrum in some cases, or hardcore environmentalists in other cases, considered this law a great savior for the nation’s forest. In reality however, the logging industry was destroyed. Again, fuel began to build up from lack of logging. Coniferous stands became diseased with scab and mistletoe and finally the dreaded “Pine Bark Beetle” that has destroyed 90% of the trees in many counties in the forests of Colorado. So again, there is an unusually high amount of fuel. Another by-product of the Roadless ban was that many of the forest service roads built to allow for the transport of logs to the mills, were reclaimed. Contractors were paid by the USDA to “un-build” roads. Dirt was pulled down from cuts above the roadway and graded to look they way it did before the road was built. Culverts and bridges were removed, topsoil and duff spread on top and seeding occurred. The unforeseen result in this reclamation effort was that many firebreaks were lost. Combine all these policies and we will be seeing big fires across the west for decades to come. Some years, conditions will be right for fires to burn in the southwest mountains; some years they’ll burn in the central or northern Rockies. But they will burn and burn hot, for many months in the summer.

I guess the real point of this article is to make some folks think about a very real danger to them in their new and unfamiliar settings. By no means am I trying to discourage folks from having an out of the way retreat. To me, there is nothing better than being self sufficient, away from the crowds and cities all the time – heck, I used to live six to seven months out of a year in a wall tent in the middle of the biggest wilderness in the lower 48! I just want to stress that forest fires are deceiving and untrustworthy. They cover more ground than we expect them to. They come back to life when we think they are surely dead as a doornail. They change directions, slow down, speed up, jump rivers, jump roads, jump scree patches, lay dormant in roots only to spring up again like a rattlesnake.

To those of you wonderful people that have taken the enormous leap to move yourself and your families out of the cities for whatever reason, just walk around your place and look at your retreat through the prism of a fire being in the area. Take a look at the topography in a ten or twenty mile radius around your retreat. Pay attention to your drive, not just for ambush points or defensible positions, but wonder how you will get in or out during a fire. As always, in everything, pay attention. Do the things that make your retreat more defensible from forest fire. The rest is up to you and the will of our Lord.
Be safe while being prepared in your forested retreat.

I recently read a captivating Daily Bell interview of investing author Ron Holland, wherein he described his reasons for emigrating to Canada. In the interview, Mr. Holland stated: "I left the United States for an exciting business opportunity based in Canada but the increasing authoritarianism in the United States combined with the TSA assaults at airports do make America a threatening jurisdiction to live in or to conduct business in. Add in the threats of a real or contrived future crisis with exchange controls, a run on the dollar and an out-of-control sovereign debt situation makes me very happy to be on the outside of the American financial iron curtain and barbed wire, looking in instead of the other way around." Ron Holland is correct in many of his assertions, but in some ways, he is simply trading one form of oppression for another. Canada's gun laws stink. There, unless you fall under an exemption for law enforcement or are a member of a competitive shooting team, it is illegal to possess a magazine for a semi-auto centerfire rifle that holds more than five rounds or any magazine for a handgun that holds more than 10 rounds. There is no "grandfather" clause. If Canada's gun laws were more lax then a lot more people would consider emigrating there. But, sadly, Canada's guns laws are much more restrictive than here. And their income tax rates are only slightly lower than in the States. So I frankly can't see any substantive advantage. As for the TSA's x-rays and groin gropers, I've greatly curtailed taking commercial flights. And for the few that I do take, I've scheduled flights that originate from small regional airports. My connecting flights are at larger airports, but by then, I'm already inside the security cordon. I drive most places in my SUV. If I ever fly internationally again, it will be out of a Canadian airport. I'd love to have my own private train car, but I'm not in that league.

All people seem to have differing views of what they consider acceptable, comfortable, and "right". For example, I once had a long conversation with a friend visiting from England who considered the patchwork of laws in the 50 United States confusing and "chaotic." His comment was prompted when I was driving him to a tourist destination and I pulled over before reaching a state line to unload my pistol. He was astonished to hear that the guns laws in the U.S. weren't uniform. I personally consider it an advantage that Americans can vote with their feet and move from one state to another at will, to take advantage of differences in tax laws, guns laws, or homeschooling laws. But he saw it it as confusing and somehow "unfair." In his estimation, he'd rather see everyone living under identical laws, even if that meant some of them had to give up part of their freedom. If I have to choose between oppression and a little anarchy, then by all means give me anarchy. (Here, I must explain that though the terms are often mistakenly used interchangeably, there is a difference between anarchy and chaos. Anarchy is the absence of any government, while chaos is a state of confusion and discord, whether a government exists or not. By the Libertarian definition, anarchy is a good thing.) My desire to maximize personal freedom is one of key reasons that I originated the American Redoubt movement.

Which Liberty is the Key?

To many, some liberties are are more important than others. If someone truly wanted economic freedom, then they might consider Monaco, The Bahamas, or Vanuatu, since those countries have no personal income tax. (Just ask Mitt Romney.) But of course getting residency in Monaco would require a lot influence with the right people, and for citizenship, even more so. It is too bad that there isn't a recognized individual right to keep and bear arms in Monaco or The Bahamas, and that Vanuatu is in peril of rising sea levels. In terms of freedom from government surveillance, many Third World countries have the edge, but property crime and murder rates are higher--sometimes much higher. If firearms freedom is your concern, then countries like the U.S., Finland, Switzerland and the Philippines are some of the best, at least for full citizens. (Yes, I know that firearms freedom is even greater in Yemen, Pakistan, or Somalia--where you can buy machineguns and hand grenades at the local bazaar--but who would want to actually live there, given their high crime rates and their dislike of Westerners in general and Christians in particular?)

Tradeoffs are part of the human condition. And emigration decisions are always a collection of tradeoffs. Facebook founder Eduardo Saverin recently bailed out for Singapore for tax reasons, but that nation has perhaps the nosiest police on the planet and stiff penalties for violating their strict gun laws. McAfee Software founder John McAfee chose Belize as his hidey hole, but despite lavishing millions of dollars on the local gendarmerie, he still ran afoul of local gun laws. And multimillionaire actor Mel Gibson bought an island all to himself in Fiji, but he will still be taxed as part of the One Percent. Furthermore, there are no guarantees that laws can change, after you have moved to a perceived safe haven. The bottom line is that these is no single "perfect" country. Perhaps the Perpetual Traveler crowd has it right. But then, that approach doesn't usually provide a well-secured deep larder, for the event of a global economic collapse or other widespread disaster.

I've decided that I'm staying put in the United States, and fighting for my freedom. Of course I'll always have a Plan B and Plan C. For me, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, and the right to keep and bear arms are my priorities. If any of those three key liberties are substantially degraded here in the U.S. and I see no way of fighting to regain them without ending up behind barbed wire, then I will definitely consider voting with my feet. Note, however, that my situation is unusual. As an international journalist and commentator, I can accomplish much more by agitating for change via the Internet than I can than as just one man with one rifle. So it will only be if and when the statists try to muzzle me that it will be time to move. But again, for now, I'm staying.

When discussing prepping preparedness and emergency supplies with family and friends, many of you have probably heard the flippant remark: ""I'll just go to your house."

I have been somewhat taken aback at this statement. I initially didn't know how to respond.

I knew it was a flippant response from some, made out of mockery and intended to elicit laughter.  Their mindset is that they don't want to prepare, and don't see the point.  Most off them think that our concerns for the future are humorous and unlikely to ever come to fruition. And I knew a few who felt overwhelmed and unsure of how to start to prepare for themselves.  They were frightened by what they saw coming, but unable to make that practical step, to prepare for themselves while there is time and information aplenty.

I know that many other like-minded people have been faced with the same situation.  Perhaps my pondering on it and laying it out when you face the same statement, or rashly consider making the statement yourself.

After much consideration I have realized there can be only one response:

You cannot come to my house in TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it). I don't say this because I don't care.  I do.  I wouldn't have entered the conversation with you in the first place otherwise.  I say this because of two very real and serious reasons.

1.  In the event of a real emergency, you will most likely never reach my home.

Consider it.  If you have been to my house, you most likely had to drive to get there.  And some of you have had to drive a long way.  And some of you have had to drive through many cities and other populated areas.  Many emergency situations could lead to roads and bridges that are damaged or closed.  Many unprepared fellow citizens could become lawless, falling into a dangerous mob mentality.  The further you have to drive, simply increases the number of obstacles you could face.  Traveling immediately after an emergency can be extremely dangerous and unpredictable.

2.  I do not have the resources, energy or ability to prepare for you and your family's unique needs.

Many people have very differing dietary needs.  Within just my close circle of friends and family, I have loved ones who need very low sodium foods, gluten free foods, vegetarian foods, low glycemic or low carbohydrate foods.  Some also have food allergies, drug allergies, environmental allergies, and chronic conditions that require medications or frequent monitoring and specialized treatment.

Slowly, one by one, I research these needs to find foods, herbs, home remedies and treatments to aid in a long, healthy, drug free life, using materials that I can grow, glean, or make in my own home.  But this research takes time and practice.  And sometimes I am happy with the results, and sometimes I have to start over in my search for a self sufficient answer to these troubles.

I also try to find alternatives to everyday items and duties.  Baby diapers, Toilet Paper, Washing clothes without electricity, Cooking.  This has taken a lot of time to research (still underway) and purchase needed supplies that will last:  Cloth diapers, family cloth, a bucket and plunger, clothes drying rack, propane camp stove as well as an outdoor fire pit.

We are also a one income family with 3.5 children, 100+ chickens, 9 ducks and 4 goats.  It could take years for me to provide beds, bedding, clothing, medicine and food for 20+ additional people.

Let us consider just one aspect.  My family of 5.5 people live in a two bedroom home.  If you and your family were to come to my house, where would you sleep?  Perhaps for one or two nights you would feel grateful to have space on my floor.  But after a while you would desire better sleeping arrangements, beds or at least pads, blankets or sleeping bags.  You would also eventually need to change your clothing.  Would you be able to bring all the extra clothing you would need in your hurried race from your home?  Sturdy practical shoes? Your favored hygiene products?  Your hair brush and tooth brush?  How long will you be satisfied at my home carting water daily and defecating in an outdoor privy?  With no electricity my home does not have water OR septic.  Even with electricity, my septic is rated for 6 people and could quickly be overworked and create a health nightmare for everyone involved.

These are things that you may not have considered.  But they are things that I must consider.  Prepping literally means, Preparing for what could happen.

I hope you can see that this is not because I do not care for you.  It is because I do care for you.  I urge you all to prepare for your own.  Not only is it truly your responsibility, but it is truly something that only YOU are capable of doing.

By relying on someone else, you will end up with impersonal, inadequate and sometimes completely unsatisfactory results.

And for those who think this is all unnecessary and a waste of time.... I wish it was.

As an English Proverb says so eloquently...

"Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."

If all my preparations are never put to THE test.... at least my family has learned how to grow delicious, healthy and non modified vegetables, raise and butcher hormone and chemical free meat, and treat many common ailments without resorting to immune system destroying antibiotics or becoming addicted to pharmaceutical potions.

Even if TEOTWAWKI never comes, I will consider it all worth it and sleep soundly at night with my family close beside me.

Can you say the same if it does come?

Ways That I Can Help

Now I have laid out some basic thoughts on why you can't come to my house in TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It). But I don't want to end this conversation there, because I want to help!

My family has been moving in this direction for several years.  We have read and read and read books and internet articles, blogs and e-books.  We have watched documentaries and reality television shows.  We have even gleaned information from entertainment television shows and movies.  We try to find anything on livestock keeping, gardening, homebuilding, homesteading and herbal medicines.

As most of you already know my family tries to provide for our needs ourselves.  We do not go the the doctor unless we need a doctor.  We monitor our own health requirements and treat many of them using diet, exercise and herbal and homemade medicines when we can.  We home birth our children, just me and my husband.  We are moving towards providing for all of our food needs and this may just be the year that we accomplish it.  We homeschool our children, utilizing our own enormous library of textbooks, encyclopedias, documentaries, and educational programming, and good old paper and pencil.  We also involve our children in every step of our homesteading.  Starting seeds, transferring seedlings, transplanting outdoors, building fences, hatching chickens and ducks, building housing, feeding and watering them daily, nature walks where we discover the wild plants that grow around us and the animals that share our land with us.... This is all part of our education.

It is an adventure.

I love my life.  I delight in watching little green seedlings poke their heads through moist soil.  I smile at hearing chirp, chirp, chirping from my incubator.  I laugh as I watch the ducks swimming and playing in the pond.  I enjoy scratching my goats' bellies and having them eat from my hand.

And I adore the little kicks of a growing babe in the womb.  I am in awe when I get to hold them in my arms for the first time.  I am challenged and thrilled while watching them grow and learn.  I am completely in love with each of their little faces.

Of course, I want to keep them safe for as long as possible.  I feel it is my duty to the Lord to be a good steward over the all of blessings that He has placed in my hands.

And so... I prep. I "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." And I invite you to do the same.

Here is where I can start helping you:

1.  Find like-minded people.  If you are in my area, are already my friend or family member, or even if you live an Internet based life, feel free to contact me, befriend me, and share your thoughts, concerns and questions with me.  Having like-minded people surrounding you can be encouraging, uplifting, and provide excellent resources in your efforts to meet the challenges ahead.

2.  Make a list of what you have, and what you know.  You may already possess materials and skills that will be useful for your family's safety, or provide a valuable service in the event of an emergency.  Do you have plumbing skills?  Construction skills?  Electrical?  Mechanical?  

3.  Make a list of what you do not have, and what you do not know.  This may take some research.  Begin finding these resources and information.  If you don't know how to garden you can consider, books, magazines, online articles, a neighbor that gardens, or taking classes from your local extension office.  If you don't have medical knowledge you can consider taking local CPR courses, EMT basic courses, or researching individual medical conditions with books or online for knowledge and treatment.

4.  Band together.  Meet with other like-minded people to share responsibilities and resources.  This is most especially important in close neighborhoods.  If you can find others that are close to you, emotionally, spiritually and physically that share your goals and ideas, count it as a blessing.  Work together.  Perhaps they have medical skills, while you have construction skills.  Perhaps they love gardening, and you love canning food.  Without moving out onto the commune, you can start a community and build a foundation of strength for when the world is shaking.

5.  If you cannot find others nearby, do not fret.  Information is widely available.  I have even included many valuable links below.  And never underestimate your ability to learn new skills and rise to the challenge.  It does take work.  But it is worth it.

Links to start building your needed skills and resources.....

Bible Verses Regarding Preparing for the Future

Complete "How To" guides to begin storing food, tracking what you use and need, and a list of tests you can run through when you are ready - Food Storage Made Easy

How to Save Seeds - After you have grown your garden and are harvesting, prepare for next years planting.

Great online store with a multitude of tools, kits, and foods.  I peruse this frequently to see where my supplies might have holes - Emergency Essentials

Your local Agricultural Extension office usually provides low cost and free classes on canning, gardening, and beginning livestock care.  This is also a great place to meet other like-minded people.

Even the government has some starting points to preparing for an emergency, at Ready.gov. Can you last for at least three days without any water or electricity or additional supplies in your home? Remember that it took 3 days for the National Guard to even be sent to Hurricane Katrina victims.

Another site stressing that you must be prepared for at least three days: 72hours.org

Numerous Articles about Prepping 101,
While there are differing opinions you will find these to be great jumping off points:

National Geographic Prepping 101: The 10 Principles of Preparedness
Homestead Revival Prepping 101
Doomsday Prepping 101
Modern Survivalists Prepping 101
Miles Franklin - Prepping 101
Fast, Cheap, and Good - Prepping 101

And a few blogs that I read regularly that are full of great how to advice -
Paratus Familia
Rural Revolution
SurvivalBlog
The Deliberate Agrarian

And here are a few really valuable books that I think are nearly essential to being prepared
The Encyclopedia of Country Living (Tenth Edition) by Carla Emery
Storey's Basic Country Skills: A Practical Guide to Self-Reliance by John & Martha Storey

Where There Is No Doctor: A Village Health Care Handbook by David Werner

Where There Is No Dentist by Murray Dickson

How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times by James Wesley, Rawles

These are What I Consider The Basics of Preparing for TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It):

Spiritual -
The most important preparation one can make for troubled times, or any time.... is the preparation of the soul. There can be no hope or lasting future for people who have not made peace with the Almighty.  I understand that not all believe in a 'Christian' God.  While I cannot speak directly to the many religious beliefs in the world, I can speak readily to my own.
My belief in Christ as a source of hope in any situation.  When the days are bright and beautiful and filled with numerous blessings, I can rejoice in them with my Lord.  But when the days are dark, and dangerous and filled with loss and fear..... what can I cling to then?
My Lord is still a light in these times.  In fact, He is the only light in these times.  His presence is strong and powerful, and His words promise that there is an end to all evil in the world.  And for those who cling to Him, He promises that He will never forsake us, and will make all things right.
So find your peace with the Almighty Creator and look forward to having hope, even in the midst of TEOTWAWKI.

Mental -
The second most important preparation one can make for troubled times, or any time.... is the preparation of the mind.  Without knowledge and discipline how would one go about building a shelter, growing a garden, finding food in the wilderness, or protect themselves from an enemy that has entered your gates?  You must study.  You must practice.  Books, Videos, Classes are essential to being as prepared as possible in any situation, including TEOTWAWKI.  This process is never ending, since there is always something new to learn.  You can never sit back and say, "I know everything now."  You and your family need to continually glean new skills and knowledge to face a time when there is no one else to provide for our needs.  Whether you are on your own for five days or five minutes, you could have a need that only you can meet.
This also includes, overlapping the physical portion of preparedness, the preparation of your body.  You must work toward making and maintaining your body in a strong and healthy condition as much as possible. If you are sickly, weak, and dependent on many medications, this will weaken your overall preparedness for hard times.

Physical -
The last, but still very important preparation one can make for troubled times, or any time... is the gathering of supplies.  This can seem daunting, monetarily and practically.  Where does one start?  Some of this knowledge will come as you prepare yourself mentally.  But to start we can consider what are your most urgent needs?

1.  Security is essential.  You must be prepared to protect yourself, your family, and your supplies.  If you do not protect them, you are basically giving up your life and the lives of those in your care.  In a matter of seconds, your life and your children's lives can be irrevocably lost.  You can purchase guns and ammo from most sporting good stores, and take gun safety courses from most police stations, gun ranges, and the National Rifle Association.  You can also sometimes find private courses available in your community.  You can also learn several styles of self defense fighting through video courses and in local schools if they are available in your community.

2.  A good quality first aid kit is essential.  You must be prepared to quickly clean a wound, stop bleeding, and have knowledge and ability to assist someone who is injured or very sick.  In a matter of minutes, a person can bleed to death.  You can purchase ready made kits in numerous sizes, or purchase individual pieces to build your own.
Shelter is essential.  This can include blankets, tents, and the ability to make a shelter in the wilderness if necessary.  In a matter of hours, a person can freeze to death.  It is also equally necessary to shelter oneself in excessive heat situations.  You can count blankets and tents you already own, purchase 'emergency' ones at many stores, and learn how to build lean to's, and other emergency shelters.

3.  Water is essential.  Staying hydrated is necessary at all times.  When you are under stress, and may not have access to clean water, stored water will mean the difference between life and death, literally.  In a matter of days, a person can die of dehydration.  You can purchase many sizes of pre-bottled water, as well as purchase water purification filters, tablets and systems.

4.  Food is essential.  Maintaining a steady, not excessive caloric intake will ensure that you have the strength and mental acuity to deal with what is happening around you.  In a matter of weeks, a person can die of starvation.  You can purchase many canned, dried, or 'emergency ration' foods.  You can also learn to make many of your own long term storage foods.  With a good quantity of a few ingredients in your home, you can assure that your family will not starve, and will have a balanced diet.  With some forethought and planning, you can make this diet interesting and much more endurable for yourself and your family.

The best way to begin is to prepare for a few days to start with.  You can use backpacks, buckets, totes, or boxes to pack away the items you may need initially.
You then expand and prepare for a longer time period.  Find a stretch of time to use as your goal and start gathering.

What will you need for 3 days?
3 months?
1 year?
7 years?

As you begin preparing for longer term, you will find yourself moving away from purchased/packaged emergency supplies, and move more into learning skills and gathering tools, seeds, and finding a homestead to build up around you.  You will begin to be more independent, and leave mainstream society.  You will realize that the 'old ways' that our ancestors lived, were far more sustainable and therefore a much firmer foundation for hard times.
It is a thrilling adventure to relearn the 'old ways' and to capture that independence back.  As you realize the numerous ways you have been enslaved and compromised security and freedom, you will be encouraged and strengthened to continue this path.

Some Prepping Advice from others point of view - 
CollapseNet
Five Simple Steps to Prepare For TETOTWAWKI Today (SurvivalBlog)
Practical Steps to Preparing (SurvivalBlog)
Preparing For TEOTWAWKI - Where To Begin (TEOTWAWKI Blog)
TEOTWAWKI
Prepare Now For Survival (The Mother Earth News)

The End Of The World As We Know It.  Let us assume that it has finally happened.

It could be the earthquake that our region is supposedly so overdue for.  It could be dust bowl conditions in the south that create near famine conditions in the US like occurred in the 1930s.  It could be war that actually occurs on our side of the pond, just like happens in most nations around the world.

It hurts my heart to think that these things may happen during the lives of my children.  But I must be brave and honest.  I must admit that they do occur.  And I must plan ahead and prepare myself and my family so that if/when it occurs we will be, at least somewhat, in a better position spiritually, mentally and physically to handle it.

So in the event of such situations, or a myriad of others, let us consider that you have decided that your home is not the safest location for yourself and your family.  Let us consider that you are unable to provide the security you may need, or that you do not have a renewable source of water in the event of a grid outage. or that you do not have the land needed to grow enough food for your needs in the event of a prolonged systemic shutdown.

Here, my dear friends and family, I say, that you may consider coming to my house.

And for those whom I do not know, or live far away, you can begin to start the conversation with others who are your friends and family who may have a retreat, a place to gather and survive after TEOTWAWKI.

Before you all jump in the car and crash my party (or anyone else's).... there is a lot that you must consider first.

Having been forced by conditions, and blessed by love, my family has lived with another family in the past.  This family is so very close and dear and beloved by us.  We have children that are around the same ages.  We see the same in most political and religious arenas and our differences were small and barely noticeable really.

But living together is difficult.

Consider your own spouse, whom you love and adore.  I'll bet that you argue sometimes!  I'll bet you have even at times been tempted to raise your voice, throw a dish, stomp furiously from a room.

It was a very heavy strain on my own family and on theirs to live together.  Who was in charge?  Who was supposed to do the dishes?  Why did that person get up so early or stay up so late?  Who used all the toilet paper!?!?

Even in TEOTWAWKI, these human tendencies and emotional issues will occur.

So there has to be ground rules.  And these are the rules of my home.

1.  This is not a democracy.  My husband is in charge.
  This is not about some addiction to power, and megalomania.  Initially, for our own family, we made this decision based on scripture.  Ephesians 5:22-33 tells us that the man is the head of the household, as Christ is head of the church.  There is one captain on this ship.  I get to say my piece most of the time, and my opinion is respected and considered.  But he and he alone decides the direction our family will take.  Your opinion also will be listened to and given consideration.  If possible he will explain the reasons for any decision made.
  You may not like it.  But if you come to our house, that is the number one rule.  Before you balk too much about it, remember that this house and this land belongs to him.  We would certainly respect you in your home.  We will force no one to come to our home.  We will force to stay at our home. If necessary we will ask you to leave.

2.  You don't work, you don't eat.
  This is also a decision based on scripture.  2 Thessalonians 3:10 Paul stated quite clearly, "For even when we were with you, we commanded you this: If anyone will not work, neither shall he eat."  Except for delicate little babes, everyone is capable of doing 'work' for their daily bread.
Elders may not be able to swing a shovel with much force.  But they may be able tell a young man how to build a truss, fix a leaking pipe, teach and read to the children.
The children may not be able to wrestle a goat back in it's pen.  But they should be able to do simple chores around the house, and as they get older, tend to their learning and help out around in the gardens and with the animals.
no freeloaders allowed.

3.  If you cause harm to others in the group, you may be asked to leave.
  Depending on the severity of your actions, and the likelihood of you continuing in harmful actions, we will defend those who seek safety and security from us.  Just as any danger from the outside, a danger from the inside will not be ignored.

Now if you have considered these rules, and still think that coming to my house is for you?  We better start making plans and discussing details, now.  This applies for those considering joining with others, family and friends in their own area.  Their rules may be different.  Discuss it and consider it carefully.

What supplies will you be bringing and storing at the retreat?  It is no longer a matter of "Will you bring supplies?" as you are planning on bringing your entire family there for shelter.
What will these supplies include? Food, Medical supplies, Tools, Seeds?
What kind of labor are you providing for the upkeep and fortitude of the retreat?  Are you able to assist in strengthening fences, building long term food supplies such as fruit trees or a fish pond, building outbuildings and additional housing, and run practice scenarios to ready yourself and your family and others who may be involved?
Will you come as soon as possible in the event of an emergency, or hunker down in your own home for a time to assess the situation before coming?

Because those who are our friends and family have such differing religious, political and lifestyle beliefs, there will be specific topics that will need to be discussed.  While it may seem common sense to some, it will seem complete nonsense, unnecessary, and even horribly dangerous by others.  These issues must be discussed before we are living under the same roof and trying to make a cohesive community.  Life will already be difficult and strained in TEOTWAWKI, and we must be able to rely on the safety of our group and our retreat.

For our retreat we would have to add some additional 'rules'.
4.  Parents are responsible for teaching and disciplining their child.  They may choose others in the group to share that responsibility with them if they wish.  Ultimately it is the parents' responsibility.  Deuteronomy 6:6-9
5.  Any threat to the group from man or animal, inside or out (as partially discussed in rule 3) will be dealt with.  Those who have pacifist beliefs may struggle with this when it is discussed and when the time comes.  However, we believe that it is our duty to the Lord, to protect what He has given us.  This does not mean we would attack or kill indiscriminately. That would be "murder" which would be a sin against God whom we seek to serve.  Discernment is necessary.  Exodus 22:2
6.  You will worship and thank God.  You will do your best to keep His commandments and to keep the sanctity of our home or you will be asked to leave.   Joshua 24:15, 1 Corinthians 5:13

Without an ongoing conversation, preparing and planning together, you will not know what to expect.  At our home, or at your other chosen retreats, the rules, goals, and methods may be different.  By opening the discussion and entering it you will be able to gain understanding of one another, and find ways to work together.

Of course there will still be issues that come up and stressful relations could still occur.  It would be wonderful if we all saw eye to eye on all subjects.  But most of the time in life we will be clumped together with people who agree on some things and disagree on many things.  You weigh and balance and hope to find those who agree more, disagree less.  A lot of this can be smoothed over by entering into it with understanding, tact and grace.

We would never want to close the door to any in need, especially those whom we know and love.  If we can make this work, it could be a wonderful thing to look forward to in the dawn after TEOTWAWKI.  When all is lost, we would have friends and family around us, in a community that worked together.  All we have to do is look at our children's bright eyes to know why we can't give up and must keep trying.

So if and when TEOTWAWKI comes upon us.... Yes, you can come to my house.

Welcome, welcome in - Caroline B.

The world is on now on the brink of a global credit crisis that could be far worse than the tumultuous events of 2008. The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the southern reaches of the Eurozone indicate that bank runs in the region will continue, and that more bank closure "holidays" will be declared. Under a bank holiday, virtually all deposits could be frozen and irredeemable for days, weeks, or even months. The key question is: Will this crisis spread to the rest of Europe and then even to the United States? I urge SurvivalBlog readers--particularly those in Europe--to be proactive, to stay "ahead of the power curve." While the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) wakes up some morning to hear news of a bank holiday, you will have long hence prepared yourself.

Digits Lost in the Ether--Redeemable Mañana?

Most people don't realize that printed U.S. currency and minted coins amount to less than $800 billion, worldwide. That is just a small portion of the aggregate Money Zero Maturity (MZM) money supply that now exceeds $7 Trillion. So what is in your bank account is just electronic money, and there is absolutely no way that even a fraction of depositors could get physical cash to redeem the digits in their accounts. If there is a bank holiday declared, there will undoubtedly be severe restrictions on cash withdrawals when banks re-open. Given the precedent of the limits on withdrawals of a few institutions during the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s, I predict that withdrawal restrictions could go on for many months.

Here are 20 Reasons why America's next bank holiday will be a nightmare:

1. A bank holiday will create a virtual blackout of information on not just checking and saving accounts, but also automated mortgage payments, CDs, and more. Our presently quite transparent banking system will suddenly become opaque. Your bank balance will become invisible. Your handy-dandy online banking web page will be replaced by a "Service Temporarily Unavailable" notice. The willingness to accept checks will evaporate in less than a day. The FUD factor (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) will be overwhelming.
2. Most businesses will no longer honor personal checks, corporate checks, or bank money orders. Showing a merchant your most recent bank statement isn't likely to sway him. Again, the FUD factor will rule.
3. All checks in the U.S. are cleared through the automated clearinghouse (ACH) network. Most of this network is inside of banking system firewalls. Many Federal, State, and local tax payments are also handled through ACH. (A similar network exists for European banks--the Pan-European Automated Clearing House (PE-ACH), under the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) system).
4. Credit cards might not be accepted. The FUD factor will dictate that anything even peripherally related to the banking system will be suspect. (Even though the credit card companies have their own credit clearing mechanisms that are only attached to the banking milieu.)
5. Except for a few grandfathered recipients, Social Security payments are now made exclusively via bank direct deposit.
6. Military monthly pay, housing allowances, and ration payments are now made exclusively via bank direct deposit, in CONUS. That is true virtually across the board (Active component, Reserve, and National Guard.) Ditto for monthly military retirement payments.
7. Many State and Federal employees no longer get physical paychecks. They too, are trapped in the "direct deposit only" world.
8. Many Americans are now very dependent on bank debit cards (also known as a bank cards or check cards.) In fact, many people don't even carry more than a few dollars in their wallets. If our world suddenly goes "cash only" most people will suddenly be out of cash.
9. ATMs, debit card transactions, and online banking can be shut down in minutes. This huge vulnerability of banking customers has already been evidenced by a few minor glitches.
10. Online payment systems like PayPal will be sharply degraded, because they rely on their ability to move funds to and from banks. More importantly, online payments are inextricably tied to credit card processing. If credit card processing is suspended, then online payments will be "dead in the water."
11. Many regular monthly payments such as mortgages, insurance premiums, and some utilities are automatically debited from checking accounts. These will all come to a screeching halt.
12. SWIFT wire transfers will probably be suspended, freezing a good portion of global commerce. Similarly, International ACH transactions (IATs) will also be shut down, since they access the U.S. ACH network.
13. The ability to process credit card payments will be dubious, at best. Many merchants will wisely "just say no" to credit cards, even if their countertop POP terminals are still functioning and show available credit. And the fact that many credit cards are now just debit cards in disguise will only add to the reluctance of merchants to take any credit cards.
14. Point of purchase (POP) processing of credit and debit cards at gas stations has become ubiquitous. Nearly everyone now uses the "pay at the pump" option. Gas and diesel could become "cash only" transactions.
15. Most American families keep less than $300 in cash at home at any given time, including their kids' piggy banks. For most families, that wouldn't cover even one month's rent.
16. Formerly distributed as "Food Stamps", the USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), provides benefits to low income families through Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) card payments. These cards look much like credit cards. And like checks, EBT payments are all routed through the ACH network. Again, this is a network that is inside banking system firewalls. If the banking system goes into holiday mode, then it may take days or even weeks to get EBT processing back on line. If the EBT payments stop, we can expect riots in metropolitan areas in less than a week.
17. Gift cards will be "iffy." There are now two types of gift cards: "open loop" (or "network") cards and traditional "closed loop" cards. Open loop cards are issued by banks or credit card companies and can be redeemed many places. It is likely that only closed loop cards will be honored by the issuing stores, because merchants will fear that open loop cards might have been zeroed out elsewhere. (If they can't confirm the available balance, the card will be refused.)
18. Most Internet vendors are almost entirely dependent on credit card processing. If that processing system is disrupted, then mailorder firms will either have to cease operations, or have them slow to a snail's pace, and be restricted to only non-bank money orders.
19. Reversion to U.S. Postal Service money orders (commonly called "PMOs") will only be partially viable solution. This is because many small town and rural post offices don't keep enough cash in their tills to be able to hand you $1,000 when you go to cash a PMO. You may be thinking, "Oh well, I'll just ask them to write me a blank PMO, in exchange. Nope. A recent change to postal regulations designed to curtail money laundering banned money order-for-money order issuance. Bummer. And if you are considering using "Forever" postage stamps, hold your horses. Under a hygiene regulation published in the Domestic Mail Manual (DMM), postal clerks are not allowed to cash out ("buy back") stamp booklets unless they are still in their sealed clear plastic master packages. So it might take decades to use up your Forever stamps, or you will be forced to liquidate them on the gray market at a slight loss.
20. Bank safe deposit boxes will probably be inaccessible. Plan accordingly.

Some Observations and Mitigation Steps:

Because so many pay and retirement benefit systems are now handled via bank direct deposit only, we could easily live through a frustrating "Roach Motel" period of several months when "Dollars check in, but they don't check out." Be prepared to ride through that period.

If the European credit spreads to the United States, then immediately visit your company's payroll office, and ask to be removed from their direct deposit system. This change might take a couple weeks. With a paper paycheck, you can probably cash it elsewhere, even if you own bank closes its doors--perhaps even at your local grocery store.

Keep plenty of well-hidden cash at home. Since it won't be earning interest, some of this cash might as well be in $2 rolls of nickels. That method will also give you a hedge on inflation, and also serve as insurance against a currency reform. (Where a zero could be lopped off the Dollar, overnight.)

Be prepared for times for when anything other than greenback cash or perhaps silver coins will be eyed with suspicion, or rejected outright. Even USPS PMOs and drug store money orders may be refused. In the era of bank holidays, cash will talk. Keep plenty of it on hand. Oh, and needless to say, don't store your cash in a bank safe deposit box. You probably won't have access to it during a bank holiday.

Be wise and circumspect in storing cash at home. Don't tell anyone other than your spouse about that cash. See the SurvivalBlog archives for suggestions on building secret hiding places, like this one.

A good portion of your "stash of cash" should be in the form of $1 and $5 bills. This is because during a banking crisis, many people will not be able make change for small transactions. And if your local power, water, and phone companies refuse checks, then you will need to be able to pay them the exact amount of your monthly bill. (They probably won't have much "change", either.)

Apply for at least one gasoline station chain charge card. In turbulent times when they won't take your check or your VISA card, they might still take their own chain card.

If you have to pay your utility bills in in cash or by PMO, do you know where their business offices are located? And consider the sort neighborhood where those offices are located. (Unless you live in a free state for open carry or Constitutional Carry, do you have your CCW permit, and plenty of pistol practice?) For safety, it might be wise to form a neighborhood posse to go pay those bills in a group of of six people once a month.

Your local supermarket may declare "cash only." This is yet another reason why it it is vitally important for every family to have a comprehensive food storage program. By the same token, fuel storage also makes sense, if your local fire code allows it.

At the tail end of a banking crisis--when the bank doors do re-open--the Federal Reserve will certainly have to crank up the printing presses. Even people that never had "mattress money" will want some. All this new cash will increase the velocity of money, locally. This will be inflationary, even at the same time that a the macro level, we will witness a huge dollar deflation. (This is because the multiplier effect of every dollar on deposit will work in reverse, as withdrawals are made.) These will be strange times, indeed. If you start to see any evidence of mass inflation kicking in, then be ready to spend your dollars as quickly as possible to parlay them into practical, barterable tangibles. Don't be the last one standing in the game of Dollar Musical Chairs.

Conclusion
The threats of credit crunches, bank runs, and bank holidays are not new. No society is immune from them. We've been fortunate here in the United States to have not suffered any limits on bank withdrawals since the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s. But don't expect this stability to be permanent. We live in a dynamic world with rapidly changing threats to our lives and livelihoods. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

James Wesley:

I was wondering if you could pose the question of “mail-order stuff” to the UPS or Fed-Ex drivers that read SurvivalBlog. Have they been told to “see something-say something”?
Thanks, - Ed S.

JWR Replies: I haven't heard anything definitive on that topic in recent years. I'd appreciate UPS and FedEx drivers chiming in.

FWIW, I should mention that David Koresh (of Waco) first came to the attention of the BATF because a UPS driver reported seeing "grenade casings" protruding from a ripped cardboard box that was sent to the Waco church address.  Well, those were actually inert dummy grenades that Koresh had been buying to re-paint and assemble with used (dead) practice grenade fuse assemblies to turn into gag/novelty gifts mounted on wooden plaques.  (Those read: "Complaint Department, Take a Number" with matching "#1" tags attached to the grenade pin.) Do you remember those? They sold those a gun shows and via mail order. Well, eight months later, this happened. Please, dear readers, be very careful about the items you mail order and both the paper trails and electronic cookie crumb trails that you leave behind.

Mr. Rawles,
 I live in the Upstate area of South Carolina. Actually live in Spartanburg. Here is the info on my area, from Wikipedia:  

"Spartanburg has a municipal population of 37,013 and an urban population of 145,058 at the 2010 census.[4] The Spartanburg Metropolitan Statistical Area, corresponding to Spartanburg County, had a population of 284,307 as of the 2010 census.[4]
Spartanburg is the second-largest city in the greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Combined Statistical Area which had a population of 1,266,995 at the 2010 census.[4] It is part of a 10-county region of northwestern South Carolina known as "The Upstate," and is located 98 miles (158 km) northwest of Columbia, 80 miles (130 km) west of Charlotte, and about 190 miles (310 km) northeast of Atlanta."

We have a ten man team with families, but to my thinking, this area, even out in farming country ( Where our retreat is.) within 15-20 miles, this is still very risky, and personally feel the need to find a place further out, maybe out of state. What is your opinion?  I'd really appreciate any thoughts. No detail needed, just a confirmation or set my mind at ease. Thank you sir.
God bless, - S.F.C.

JWR Replies: There is some good farming country and many good and trustworthy folks where you live.  But the key problems are population density and the distance to urban areas.  There are just too many people to pull through a grid-down collapse without a major die-off.  That die-off would not be peaceful. The sad fact is that the population density problem is true for most of the eastern United States. Lets choose Montana, for comparison.

Compare these statistics:

"The population of South Carolina (31,189 square miles) is 4,679,230." And "...the greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Combined Statistical Area which had a population of 1,266,995 at the 2010 census."

...to these:

"The population of Montana (147,165 square miles) is 989,415."    And: "Montana is a large state - a trip via interstate [highway] from the far eastern town of Wibaux [Montana] to the western border town of Mullan, [Idaho] is over 700 miles, an estimated 12 hour trip." [Emphasis added.]

So... Montana is five times the size of South Carolina, but it has less than 1/4th of its population. Here is brief intellectual exercise: What cities would you pass through and where would you end up if you drove 12 hours from Spartanburg at 70 m.p.h. in any given direction? (Well, obviously if you went east it is just 230 miles to the Atlantic Ocean...) But how much population would you pass through in those 12 hours, especially if you headed north, or northeast, or south? Now consider the same exercise, but starting from, say, Cut Bank. Montana. You certainly wouldn't reach any significant "urban" area for a long, long while. The first good-sized city that you would reach (after two hours of driving 70 m.p.h. without taking a bio break) is Helena. That is the state capitol, but it has only about 28,000 people.

See the Retreat Areas Page for my recommendations. Be sure to take a look at the "Lights of the U.S." photo maps at Blue Marble. A picture tells a thousand words.

If you must hunker down in the Upstate region of South Carolina, then for a true "worst case" situation be prepared to have no outside contact for two years or longer. Meanwhile, while refugees from the cold northern states will presumably flood the southeastern U.S. while concurrently a nationwide die-off takes place. Living through that will take a lot of stored food and fuel, plenty of teamwork, and castle-like architecture. Furthermore, you would have to be situated on a piece of land with spring water or a shallow well that is well away from any highway or other natural line of drift for looters and refugees.

Granted, the Upstate region is quite good by southeastern US standards. It is certainly much safer than the Atlanta or Raleigh-Durham regions. But that is all relative, as I outlined above. The Upstate region might pull through a deep economic depression just fine, if the power grid stays up. But if the grid goes down for more than a month, then update your will and say your prayers.

If you can, then relocate to The American Redoubt. We have lots of elbow room.In my estimation, fewer people will mean fewer problems.

Mr. Rawles,
While traveling to work Tuesday night on the subway, the transit system got partially shut down due to a building fire next to some aboveground tracks. This caused problems and delays during the evening commute. It shows how vulnerable some systems can be to unexpected problems;
 
Tuesday afternoon started out normal enough but due to a fire would cause me some problems getting to work . I live on the North side of Chicago. I work part time at a downtown gourmet supermarket. I worked a afternoon-to-close shift Tuesday night that starts at 4 p.m.  Normally, I can get to work from home in under 30 minutes. On Tuesday it  would take a lot longer.
 
First of all, here is a link to a map of the Chicago Transit system so readers can understand the system layout.
 
I use the 'Red' line to get to work. This is the busiest line in the entire system, so delays on this route can really mess things up in the rest of the system quick
 
Things went well at first. I got on my downtown-bound train around 3:20 PM. At the Sheridan stop, the train sat at the station for a few minutes. I figured it was just a minor mechanical problem and we would be moving again soon. However, by 3:45 PM we were still at the Sheridan stop just sitting there. I phoned the job and told them that I might be a couple minutes late.  Then the train conductor announces that there is a emergency up ahead and he has been told to keep to train there at the station. After a couple more minutes of standing there the conductor announces that the train can proceed to the Belmont station, but it would not be proceeding any further south and all us passengers would be transferred to shuttle buses to continue the trip south. At Belmont station, I got off the train and walked to the south end of the platform. I looked and saw vast amounts of smoke obscuring the tracks and skyline to the south.
 
The cause of all the smoke was a major fire in a furniture warehouse alongside the tracks, as described by The Chicago Sun Times, and by The Chicago Tribune.
 
At Belmont station, shuttle buses were used to move us to other stops along the the subway route. I finally got on a shuttle bus that took us to the North Avenue/Clybourn station. We were told that the subway  was working normally at this station for trains going south, but I had had enough with the system by then and decided to walk the rest of the way to my job (about a mile or so) I got to work at 6PM. I wasn't the only one late. At least one other co-worker (who also rode the system) got to the store around 6pm also.
 
There is never a 'good' time for a fire, but this  one  happened not only during the  beginning of evening rush hour, but a Cubs Baseball game ended at roughly the same time, so add about 20-30,000 people (with a couple of them  drunk) into the mix.  Overall, I can not find much fault with the Chicago Transit Authority's handling of this situation. They reacted pretty well to the hand they were dealt. My one fault I would like to point out was the lack of information the shuttle bus drivers had. Originally, the shuttle plan was to move riders from the Belmont Station to the Fullerton Station (consult the above system map). This was what the driver of my bus planned to do. But, by now some of us riders were looking up information about the fire on our web-enabled cell phones.  We showed this info to the driver who decided that taking us a stop further to North Avenue/Clybourn would be smarter. Furthermore, as our shuttle bus inched south along  on Halsted Street ( lots of traffic) after leaving Belmont Station, we could all smell and see the smoke from the fire.
 
There were no casualties (thank God) but it took 160 firefighters to put out the blaze.  When my shift ended later that night, I decided to took the subway back home (some nights I walk home because it is good exercise)  as the subway went past the fire site, there was still a heavy smell of smoke in the air.
 
Bottom line: a discarded lit cigarette caused significant problems for the major backbone of the Chicago subway system.  - ChicagoDudeWhoTrades

There are a lot of things to be fearful of in this old world.  But, for most of us Joe Average North Americans, there are things we believe that are likely to happen, and many other events that are a lot less likely.
Most of us are not all that worried about a magnetic pole shift, the Mayan calendar ending this year, the Yellowstone super volcano, or an alien invasion from outer space.  It’s not that all those things are impossible, but there are threats that are simply a lot more probable.

Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average (the people that don’t have their heads stuck in the sand in denial) are most worried about an economic collapse.  Joe knows these events have happened historically in our own country (1929), as well as many other countries.  He is not so rigid as to think it can’t happen again.

In the current world, Joe hears about it from many different media outlets.  Prior to the last few years, since around 2008, Joe never heard such dire thoughts from any media source, much less from the now countless sources.  He knows the causes could be myriad, and everyone out there has a theory and a prediction.  It might be “just” a hard economic downturn like the Great Depression, and there still might be basic law and order.  Or, it could be truly apocalyptic social disintegration.  Joe is not so arrogant as to think he knows how all the countless variables will turn out.  He might not know what the eventual “tipping point” will be, but neither is he is oblivious to what is happening in the world around him.  He sees the signs.  A recent poll indicated that nearly 50% of Americans believe there will be an economic collapse within their lifetimes.  Many see it as imminent.
Joe, being a practical sort, has stored up a little extra food, water, and supplies, including outdoor gear.  Joe and his family would much rather “bug in” than “bug out”, but he can envision a social collapse where that choice might not be his to make.  He especially knows that if the power grid were to go down, all bets are off.  Joe, trying to look ahead, can foresee a time when cities might become dangerous places, at least for a fairly extended period of time.  Though he can see this possible future, he is still more than a little reticent about the thought of bugging out his family to a remote location in a “live off the land” scenario.

However, Joe, as I have described him, has a lot more going for him than he might think if he has to put into action his bug-out plan to a remote area.  Less than 2% of the population has made any preparations for such an event.  Joe has; at least to some degree.  When he reaches his bug-out location, he has food, water, and camping gear.  He also has a little basic fishing and hunting gear.  He may not have enough for months or years, but he has some.  Most of the population will have virtually zero.

Also, he has been thinking about all the “what ifs” this new world might bring.  Again, that is a lot more than the other 98% out there who think preppers are ignorant idiots who are wasting their time.  Those folks believe the government will “do something” so that it won’t get that bad.  Yeah, right.

Even for Joe, however, life in the wilderness won’t be a picnic, especially for months on end.  Joe, like the rest of us, will need a little change of mindset.  We will all have to realize that at least some of the rules have changed.

The following is a list of “possibles” to think about.  These are all situation oriented.  Obviously, what to do will depend on the exact situation we find ourselves in, and none of us can really predict that.  We have to prepare for a little of everything, but we don’t need to go out of our way to make it any more back-breaking than it has to be.

The mantra of this list is:   Use common sense, do the Easy Stuff First.

(1)  Joe needs to go to water.  Most of us live within a few miles of a stream, river, lake, creek, or even just a pond.  The easiest stuff to successfully accomplish is almost always near water.  Obviously, this won’t help if you are stranded in the Mojave, but Joe has transportation.  Find water.
(2)  Joe needs to clear his mind of at least some old precepts.  Not many people are going to be able to take their trusty bolt action rifle (that has been in the closet for years) and go out and get a deer every couple of weeks to feed their family.  Many people think they could, but it is really unrealistic for most of us.  There might be a few exceptions.  There are a few areas of the country that are simply teeming with large game, but those areas are extremely few and far between.  Even in those areas, there will be a lot of other people competing for that same game in a TEOTWAWKI situation.  Again, think easy.  Hunting is, in most instances, a fair amount of work.  You want to conserve calories, not expend them.
(3)  After setting up his camp, Joe should try water resources.  It is generally easier to obtain protein in (or near) water than elsewhere.  Try tiny hooks for small fish.  Almost any water source will have perch or other small fish.  I have caught many small perch by using bait I scrounged up at the site such as grasshoppers, grubs, crickets, etc.  Once, I used a petal off of a very tiny white flower (or weed) I found in the grass.  All you have to catch with this improvised bait is one of these tiny fish, and then you can cut it into tiny pieces for better bait.  Once you have these tiny pieces of fish flesh for bait, you can generally catch all you want of the little buggers.  Does it matter that you can only catch 3 inch fish?  In the old world, it would not have gotten you any bragging rights, but now is a whole new ball game.  A skillet full will be good, and will conserve the canned goods and MREs you brought with you.
After all, most of us Joe Averages out there have an immediate family of five or less.  Most Joes won’t be trying to feed forty people.
(4)  Joe will have started off with a success; not a failure.  It is, admittedly, a small success, but at least it is a positive outcome, not effort expended that produced nothing.  Failures breed worry and panic.  A positive outcome will help not only Joe’s attitude, but also his wife and children.  If the kids (and their Mom) see an initial positive outcome, it eases their minds.  On the other hand, if they see Dad fail miserably right off the bat, it scares them.  Dad needs to be seen as doing things that work.  A series of little victories is a good thing.
(5)  Set traps that will work while you don’t.  Again, think easy and conserve energy.  Cut a plastic 2 liter soda bottle so that you can reverse the cone end back into the larger end, forming a cone fish trap.  Chop up one of the tiny fish you caught earlier to use for bait inside.  Let it “fish” for you in shallow water while you rest.  Again, it will only catch very small fish, but so what.
(6)  Set individual lines from limbs overhanging the water (or cut poles) to fish while you do other things.  Multi-hooked trot lines, if possible, are even better.
(7) If the body of water has crayfish (poor boy’s shrimp), toss a burlap bag or some such thick cloth into the waters edge, pat it down flat, and let it set for an hour or two.  Crayfish will hide under it, and you can catch some of them by quickly yanking it out on the bank.  Some will have their claws caught in the underside of the bag.  A lot of them will escape, but so what.  You have expended little effort.
(8) If Joe thought ahead and brought with him a piece of large plastic pipe (4” diameter, or so, like is used in sewage drain lines), he can make an un-baited hollow log catfish trap with very little effort.  He would need a piece about 3’ long.  Wire off one end so that water will flow through, but the catfish can’t.  Leave the other end open.  Tie a rope to that end (to retrieve), and toss it into the water.  Leave for several hours at least.  Catfish will swim into these just like they will an actual hollow log that has fallen into the water.  Exactly why they do it, I don’t have a clue.  But, they do.  It is a fact.  “Noodlers” take advantage of this catfish behavior.  Have you ever seen the television show Hillbilly Handfishing?
(9) Something to think about.  Most of the activities mentioned thus far are things that will fish for you while you do something else, or maybe while you simply rest.
(10) Something else to think about.  Virtually all of the above things can be hidden so that a passerby would not even notice.  In a TEOTWAWKI situation, even a remote area might have some people passing through that would rob a fish trap (or set hooks) if they were visible.
(11)  Look for shallow inlet pools.  These are little offshoots of most all waterways where water (and fish) have overflowed into shallow pools just off the main body of water.  Eventually the water level dropped slightly, leaving the fish trapped in the small pool.  If the pool is too large to grab the small fish by hand, carve a spear to stab them with.  Bamboo is relatively easy to whittle into a multi-pronged spear with barbs.  Water birds (like kingfishers) utilize these small pools because their prey is easier to catch there than in more open and deeper water.
This method is obviously a little more work, since you have to physically have to spear or catch the fish.  It won’t work while you rest.  Sorry about that.
(12)  If there are no shallow inlet pools around, you can make your own fairly easily.  Find a spot on the bank where you can wade out at least a few feet without falling into deeper water.  Drive sticks (bamboo is good, but use whatever you have) into the mud making a fence out into the water.  Obviously, the farther out you go, the longer the sticks will have to be.  Move about three feet over, and build a second fence out into the water.  Then, form a cone back toward the bank from the end of both fences.  Looking at it from the bank, it should look like an “M”.  Leave the cone of the M open, so that fish can swim in.  In essence, it is just another cone trap like you made earlier with the plastic soda bottle.  Again, a little work is involved with this one, but once built it will work for you relatively permanently.
(13)  In some waterways, schools of small fish can be netted if you just had a net.  If you can cut a ten foot long pole with a Y shaped end, you can fashion one.  Take a t-shirt and tie the sleeves into a knot.  Then, tie the shirt onto the Y end of the pole forming what hopefully looks something like a butterfly net.  Again, small fish is about all you can hope for, but so what.
(14)  Hopefully, it goes without saying that if a “big success” stumbles into your lap, go ahead and take advantage of it.  Use that trusty old rifle if an elk ambles by your camp.  Everything is situation oriented.  Don’t let doing the easy stuff blind you to an opportunity of bigger and better.
(15)  If Joe has a minnow seine or a cast net, either is quick and easy to use if the water is shallow enough to wade out a few yards.  Again, these items produce a quick gain for little effort.
(16) After a pattern of success has been developed, and the initial panic and apprehension of being forced to bug-out has faded, Joe can move on to “bigger” things if he wants.  He can move on to trying for bigger fish, hunting wild game, setting animal snares, and the like.  Squirrel or rabbit hunting generally has a high success rate.  If his time in the wilds is extended, he will eventually have to set up a water filter for when his initial supplies run low.  The really hard stuff is now starting.   But, he will have avoided the initial fear and panic that could have proved fatal for his little family.

Hope for the best.  Prepare for the worst. 

About The Author: Dale Martin is the author of several books, including Every Man's Guide to Outdoor Survival

Howdy,
I have a question about the American Redoubt in light of the pending and probable total failure of the Fukushima reactors spent fuel rod pool. When this thing goes, the release will be massive and long term. [I have read that the] radiation release will cover most of the US and Canada and that most of Canada and the northern two thirds of America may be unlivable. How advisable would be moving to the American Redoubt?

I'm not one for conspiracy theories. I don't buy the one about HAARP causing the earthquake and tsunami. However, the sheer lack of any effort to contain this pending disaster like building a coffin around it like Chernobyl to be disturbing. We've invaded many counties that pose less danger to the US, if not the world.

What are you thought on safety should this thing collapse? - Sasquatch

JWR Replies: All of the recent Internet rantings that I've seen about Fukushima's impact on the in the U.S. and Canada are not being written by folks with any background in nuclear physics or NBC defense.

This piece that I wrote pretty well sums up my position: Useful Tidbits on Radiation and Journalists--The Season of Isotopes and Misanthropes

And this piece, posted four days later by the well-informed editor of Modern Survival Blog, echoed what I wrote, with some greater detail: Radiation, Japan, and the Inverse-Square Law (Also be sure to see the follow-up comments.) The rates at which radionuclides (radioactive atmospheric dust) drop out of rain clouds with precipitation are similar. In essence, the radiation risk drops off to negligible levels around 800 miles downwind, unless weather conditions are very unusual.

I will begin with a brief introduction. I have been an avid reader of SurvivalBlog for a few years. I have never found a better collection of tips, ideas, and information. Every time I view the blog I learn something new. I was born and raised in the south, spending most of my time outdoors or in church. I grew up hunting, fishing, camping, and learning the value of a hard days work. I had believed that growing up as I did would provide me advantages in disaster situations without really making any in-depth preparations other than the occasional power outage. In my early twenties, I joined the Army. That is when I woke up and began to see the need for long term preparations. I started paying more attention to news reports and world events and realized I would not survive long on only good intentions when TSHTF.

I knew I needed to be better prepared, but I had no idea where to begin with such an enormous task. One of the soldiers in my unit suggested that I read the novel Patriots by James Wesley, Rawles. It was as if someone turned the light on. I now had a place to begin, a plan. I started ou