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Saturday December 19 2009

Letter Re: Making Low Profile Firearms Purchases

James,
Thanks so much for your books, which have really opened my eyes. I began with "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It" and have just finished reading "Patriots" for the second time. The first time on Kindle, then I decided I really needed a hard copy as well. After much prayer, my husband has acknowledged the need to prepare as well.

We have just joined the NRA and we will be joining a local gun club next month, as well as looking for proper firearms training. We own a new .22 LR and a Winchester .308. In the area of security, I have two questions:

1.) Today my husband stopped by the gun store to inquire about pistol and shotgun prices. They quoted him on some used ones that sound reasonable for our tight budget. Is there any reason to avoid used guns from a reputable dealer?.

2.) Then he told the clerk that his wife asked him to check into an AR-15. The clerk's response was "What would she need that for?" How do you go about purchasing such a weapon without looking like a loon? What should the response be to questions like that? Many thanks, - Janice in Virginia

JWR Replies: I recommend avoiding any un-necessary firearms purchase paper ptrails.We have no way of predicting how firearms laws might change in the future, so it is wise to not leave an audit trail. If your state law allows it, then I strongly recommend that all of your subsequent firearms purchases--most importantly handguns--be made from private parties who live in the same state, at gun shows or through auction services such as GunBroker.com, AuctionArms.com, or fixed-price sellers through GunsAmerica.com. Newspaper ads by private party sellers are also a possibility--and often some real bargains can be found--but of course your local selection will be much smaller.

Because all sales of modern (post-1898 manufacture) firearms bought from (or transferred through) a Federal Firearms License (FFL) holder must be put on permanent record, a paper trail cannot be avoided. So again, your best alternative is to make only private party gun purchases, without an FFL in the loop.

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Thursday December 10 2009

Letter Re: We Have Some Hard Decisions Ahead

Dear SurvivalBloggers:
The economy has taken a dramatic turn for the worse for many Americans. Hundreds of pages could be written to describe how it happened and who did it. While many individuals and households have had the financial resources and good fortune which will allow them to weather economic uncertainty, many will simply not be able to maintain their standard of living. Many two income households are now one income households and that income may have decreased due to companies cutting back on work hours. This situation has been occurring for many Americans for many many months, forcing people to assess what is important and downgrade their lifestyle. The time to make hard decisions has arrived, and will dramatically alter the lives of many for years.

People who relied on spouses to pay the bills are now paying the bills. Those who have relied on savings and unemployment benefits to maintain their standard of living are now faced with the reality that those resources are exhausted. Bills are not being paid. Healthcare premiums are not being paid. Automobile and household maintenance is being neglected which will create costlier repairs down the road. Simply put:

You might have to stop making your car payment and save those payments up to buy a used car. The car you currently have financed will be repossessed.
You might have to stop paying your mortgage and save those payments up to move into an apartment.
You might have to give up your healthcare, your magazine subscription, your club membership, your vacation plans, your charitable donations, your cell phone, your internet access or home phone service, your lawn care service, your financial support that you provide to friends and family who are having financial problems themselves, and many more expenditures not listed here.
You might have to contact an attorney to discuss bankruptcy.
You might have to sell off your possessions and assets.
You might have to move in with other families, friends, relatives, or shelters provided by the government or charitable organizations.
You may come to realize that what you thought was valuable and important to you has no value or significance at all.

Basic human needs will become the biggest priority in your life after you shed the things that have merely brought comfort and convenience to you. You may be forced to downscale your lifestyle so dramatically that it will cause you to question your own intelligence and hindsight for not planning for such a life changing event.

The things that you have always taken for granted could become difficult to obtain now that there is no longer enough money to buy those things. Basic needs become vital issues that need to be addressed:

Food, and ‘non-electric’ means both to prepare it and store it.
Portable water filtering devices and containers to store water for drinking, cooking, and bathing.
Over the counter medicines, vitamins, supplements, first aid supplies, and some basic health and first aid literature in book form. Individuals using prescription medications, or require medical attention, will need to determine their best course of action during a period of financial distress.
The need for shelter may require the purchase of a tent, camper trailer, and other camping equipment if you can longer provide an actual roof over your head and have no one to turn to.
The need for personal protection will become more obvious as desperate people begin to take desperate actions to provide basic needs for themselves and their families. The level of security you choose will be determined by your location, your finances, and your personal views and beliefs. If chaotic conditions occur lawless activity will surely follow. Past incidents of disaster and mayhem give testimony to this.

The times that we endure today will be the history that others will read tomorrow. History has shown us events that have destroyed some societies and created new ones to take their place. Those who rise to power often decide the fate of millions. And there have been times when a people rise up as a nation, united to achieve mutual goals of prosperity and hope for a better future. Today as a nation, Americans must uphold their moral convictions and beliefs that a nation of people that stand united will not perish. There are events occurring in this country that could change the very existence of our nation as we know it. And no one person or political party can decide the best course of action to insure our prosperity and hopes will not be taken away from us. The answer to our problems is right in front of us, and we must cling to it as if it is our only hope, because it is the only thing We The People have left: The Constitution of the United States of America .

We must set aside our differences and unite as a nation before those that would profit from our demise succeed in destroying us. - T.R. in, Florida

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Thursday December 3 2009

Three Letters Re: Securing Bedroom Doors Against Home Invaders

JWR,
Blessings on you and your ministry. Regarding securing bedroom doors and walls article: For new construction, it would be acceptable to place a 1/8 inch 4' by 8' [plywood] panel behind the drywall. Paneling is built with two or three plys, like plywood. A wall so constructed would be only 1/8 inch thicker, but considerably stronger, and would slow down any intruder. Of course, even this would not stop a bullet. - Jim P. in Texas.

James Wesley;
I read the recent blurb on securing interior rooms, something I have been working on for a while. Seems to me the easiest way is to install exterior grade steel doors with steel frames to take care of the bedroom doors. As for the ease of breaking through drywall, the fix is to use 1/2 or 3/4 inch plywood on the inside areas of bedrooms that backs hallways and other areas that would be accessible to intruders once inside. In my 2,400 square foot home I have less than 30 linier feet of walls to cover to "harden" bedroom areas against adjoining "non-bedroom" living spaces. That comes to only needing eight 4x8 foot plywood sheets. Once these are screwed to the studs, it would take quite a bit of time and effort to breach these.

I am also considering installing a trap door in each bedroom that leads to the crawl space under the house so we can exit with weapons when needed. Trapdoor would be hidden under a small area rug with rug attached to door so when it is used and then closed, there is no evidence of the trap door. I love the wide variety of ideas your readers share. Regards, - Marc N. in Alabama

Mr. Rawles,
The recent letter about securing bedroom doors was of interest,Since I had the experience of having armed, drunken intruders in my bedroom. That leaves a lasting impression. Ask a guy who knows!

In my opinion a bedroom door should be constructed like an [exterior] entry door. It is the last layer in a layered defense. For a balance between cost and security, I recommend a commercial steel door and frame, of the type commonly seen on the side walls of box stores, movie theatres, etc. (these doors are available with armor steel lining but the cost is very high- we are talking here of a standard 16 gauge door.) A door and frame, new, will run roughly $500. I suspect they are available much cheaper on the used architectural salvage market. Get one bored for a lockset and deadbolt., and a double deadbolt bore (two deadbolts) would be even better. Make sure both sides of the door stamping are welded together at the lockset and deadbolt areas. The supplier should be able to do this work. Usually they will come cut for three heavy duty hinges-use a top grade hinge and commercial deadbolt. A flat faced door is easiest to modify for appearance, anything from paint, to a solid wood veneer can be applied. They do come with a pressed panel look also. This door will not be a box store item, look for an architectural supply house.

To add resistance, get a double rabbeted jamb and install a security screen door on the outside- this can be locked to prevent access to the main door and also serve as bedroom ventilation in hot climates without totally sacrificing security.

In regard to the poster's query, I would recommend changing the double doors for a large single door. It is much harder to secure a set of double doors, as the one anchors to the other-- to make it really secure, the first door will be anchored to the floor and top jamb, and be such a hassle to use it will never be opened anyway. Have the opening framed in for a 36" or 42" single door, this gives an opportunity to do the reinforcement of the framing at the same time. Block in between the studs with 3/4" plywood, glue and screw down the plates (bottom framing member) to the floor.

Framing and contractors: Obviously the door is no more secure than the wall itself- some dry wall may have to be removed and plywood attached to strengthen it. Think about this- what you are trying to accomplish is two things, to prevent the door from being compromised by having it pushed out of position- either by having the jamb pried away from the door far enough to allow the deadbolt to release, or by having the stud the steel frame surrounds, pop or slip where it is attached to the rest of the framing. Plywood stiffeners between the studs will help with spreading, and making sure the framing components are screwed together will help to make sure it does not come apart. Some places may need a bolted in angle iron or similar to reinforce. Also make sure the hollow metal door jamb has wood blocking that backs up to the deadbolt pocket-no good having a solid door and framing if the jamb can be bent back far enough to pop the deadbolt free.

Most contractors are going to be thinking in standard house terms. So instead, find one who will get the hint. This is probably someone who has worked on high end homes and custom jobs)--you want a door/jamb/frame assembly that will withstand a sledgehammer or a battering ram. It should buy at least a few minutes of time under attack- time to arm up, call the police, position yourself, and so forth. And as a side note-consider the access to the door-if it is tough to swing a sledge or use a ram, so much the better. Five minutes does not sound like a long time - compared to the mere seconds a standard door will resist attack, it is an eternity.

Where the door is placed has a major effect on it's strength, and method of reinforcement. Some doors may be at wall junctions, head of stairs, etc where there is a lot of internal framing, and there may be no easy access through an adjacent wall. The worst would be a door in the middle of a flat wall, with no interior cabinetry- in such a case, Mr. Rawles pointed out, the wall can be easily breached through the drywall. In any such case, it may be easiest to attach 3/4" plywood over the existing drywall, then attach another layer of drywall or finish material over the plywood.

There should be no "drywall only" walls within arm's reach of a door knob! It is too easy to punch through the drywall and unlock the door.

Consider a small camera to cover the door, so you can see, from the inside , what is going on. And figure out what is next- the door will buy you time to wake up, and prepare-think about how you will use the layout of your space to best defend it.

Also consider a "cage and door " type arrangement at the top of the stairs, made of openwork wrought iron or similar. This is common in some countries.

Last but not least, make sure that you have a way to get out in an emergency. A house fire is one of the more likely "survival " scenarios! [JWR Adds: Yes, and far more more likely than a home invasion.]

My condolences on the parting from your wife-may you be reunited in everlasting peace by our Infinite Creator.
With Great Regard, - E.C.

JWR Replies: I concur that "plywood, glue and power screws" are your friends when your goal is delaying home invaders. I must mention that I have had some consulting clients that took layered defense to extremes. For instance, one of them that lives in Central America had a house custom-built with the bedrooms located over a combination vault-basement. Not only didhe beef up the bedroom door, but the bedroom closets were reinforced to good "panic room" specifications, using two thicknesses of marine plywood on five sides, and steel exterior doors with three door deadbolts at the top, middle, and bottom. Both of these closets have trap doors and ladders to the basement. Imagine the frustration of would-be kidnappers to batter down multiple layers of plywood defense, only to face a blank steel plate trapdoor surrounded by concrete!

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Monday November 30 2009

Letter Re: Securing Bedroom Doors Against Home Invaders

Dear Mr. Rawles,

I will try to keep this short. Hopefully my question might come in handy for a number of your readers. First, thank you for your site and your publications. I am almost finished with "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It" and am about 50 pages into your "Rawles Gets You Ready" family preparedness course. So far I am loving them both. I am reading quickly through them first and next my wife and I will study them thoroughly together, adapting the information and creating our "list of lists."

Now, I have a question for you or perhaps your readers. I live in a suburb of Denver, though a fairly distant one. Our town is wonderful, and are area is very safe, relatively speaking. We own our home outright, and we are very blessed. That said, due to a handful of reasons, relocation is not an option for us. Therefore, my goal has been to not only stock up, but to fortify my home against those who may not be prepared WTSHTF. Your resources are getting me through most of my preparations, but my question has to do with fortification and the securing of some of my home.

Specifically, the design of our house is such that the master bedroom and my girls' room would be very defensible and secure if only I could install the most secure doors possible. It may seem like overkill, but the peace of mind I would have by doing this would do wonders for my sleeping when things go bump in the night or worse. The rooms are connected via the closets and soon I will be putting in a doorway between the two. The bedroom doors themselves have no exposed wall on either side, but instead fit perfectly into entry hallways, for lack of a better way of describing them. The girls' room is a single wide, "normal" door. Unfortunately, the master is a double wide typical door. The latter will prove more difficult to secure, which is another reason why I want a professional to help me.

While I am trying to learn more and more about these kinds of things, I would like to have secure doors installed ahead of my learning curve, and so I am looking for some advice.

Basically, I am hesitant to simply start calling around for contractors and asking them if they can do the job because, especially in this economic climate, I can imagine most of them claiming they can do anything. Money is a big issue and I don't have much of it, so I need to make sure it is done correctly the first time. So, does anyone have any thoughts or recommendations for me? I will need to have someone do it for me as I don't have the tools or know-how. I need it to be done right the first time. I am concerned about asking just any contractor to do the job, and I am not sure what I would ask for exactly either, in order to avoid mistakes and confusion. On the other hand, I would imagine that the job would be too small for companies that specialize in secure building.

So there you have it. I think there are probably a lot of people like me who are not able to relocate or establish a more secure retreat, and who will have to make the best of what they have and where they are. Securing one's home is something most of us will have to address sooner or later, and the sooner the better. Furthermore, money will often mean that building a Safe Room from scratch is out of the question and smaller measures like securing doors, walls, etc. may be all one can do. We are the people who are wanting more than the average person but are not able to take advantage of what places like Safecastle and Hardened Structures have to offer. And some are even more like me in that they are really out of their element when it comes to this stuff.

In addition to being a wise investment for TEOTWAWKI, it is also a very responsible and reassuring measure to take in case of home invasion or break-ins. If I can only get my doors established, I will have very little fear if I hear someone break in in the night. Instead, I will have time to reinforce my doors, check my outside video cameras from my bedroom, know that my girls are safe and with me, and contact help via my multiple communication options in my room. And of course, I will be able to establish a position with my firearms if for some ridiculous reason the intruder is determined to get to me. I don't believe it is overkill, but being a responsible father.

Thank you for your time. God bless you and your work. - Dan M.

JWR Replies: Typical American home construction since the 1940s has used sheetrock (aka gypsum board) for interior partition walls. So if you beef up any interior doors (typically by replacing them with solid core doors, adding longer hinge screws, deadbolt locks, and/or door bars), then keep in mind that the adjoining walls will then become the most likely point of entry. These walls can be kicked through, in very little time. Once breached, since typical stud spacing is 16 or even as much as 24 inches apart (in non-code regions), home invaders can then just walk in to the adjoining room. Therefore, short of beefing up the walls themselves, by beefing up your bedroom doors, all you've done is bought yourself a bit of extra time. Keep a cell phone handy by your bedside, since hard wire phone lines can be cut. Every teenage and adult member of the family should also be thoroughly trained with firearms, and keep both a gun and a powerful flashlight (such as a SureFire) by their bedside at all times. Your beefed up doors will hopefully provide enough of a delay so that you'll have 911 in one hand, and 1911 in the other by the time that the bad guys breach your bedroom door or partition wall.

On a related note, for new construction, and remodels, I've recommended that my consulting clients use 3/4 inch plywood or OSB for one side of their bedroom walls. When this sheeting is attached with drywall screws, los malo hombres will exhaust themselves by the time they ever get through a wall that is thus reinforced.

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Friday November 20 2009

Letter Re: Short Term Survival or Long Term Self-Sufficiency?

Hi James,
You have an excellent blog. It is good to find another right-wing Christian who thinks we’re going down the wrong path, and someone who cares about other people.

I have to take issue with your blog though. It focuses on survival in the short term (maximum five years after collapse). It does not give direction for how to proceed from there, how to thrive, how to rebuild society (or rather, how to build a better society). Surviving the collapse on modern medicine only to die from disease when it runs out is pointless. Surviving only to find that your gene pool is too small to survive into the coming centuries, or that you don’t have enough books or ways to copy them (or write new ones), and thus pass knowledge on... It makes a mockery of survival. Short term focus is what got us into this mess. Let’s have some longer term articles on what we should do to lay the foundations for our children and grandchildren, and more distant descendants, to thrive.

Also, I do not see any articles on how to disappear from view of satellites, or other high-tech surveillance equipment, or how to fight against a modern army. I know it might sound ridiculous, and it is a conspiracy theory (and those are nowadays automatically disreputable), but I do not think that we are in this mess entirely by accident. The constriction of our seed supply to a few large corporations is deliberate. That there exist doomsday shelters with high technology for the elite is known. Might there not be at least some deliberate engineering of the current crisis? And, if so, might it not be with a view to facilitating control by the elite? A reduced world population would be easier to control. One desperate for food, shelter, medicine etc. would do some presently inconceivable things – such as surrendering freedom in exchange for those “necessities”. I am speaking here of the Mark of the Beast: subdermal microchips. We might find ourselves fighting against much nastier groups than mere marauders. If I am correct, much of that situation will be out of our hands anyway – it’s the Lord’s battle. But that doesn’t mean we can just sit back and say “I don’t have to do anything.”

Regards, - David in South Africa

JWR Replies: I think that you drew a conclusion about SurvivalBlog without digging very deeply. If you take the time to work your way back through the SurvivalBlog Archives (now nearly 8,000 archived posts), you will indeed find a large number of posts that discuss long term self sufficiency. These articles and letters cover steam power, home-made fuels, photovoltaics, micro-hydro power systems, home-grown herbal medicines, low tech do-it-yourself architecture (including rammed earth, adobe bricks, discarded tire Earthships), blacksmithing, home chemistry, farming, aquaculture, wood and coal heating, saddle and draft horses, primitive weapons, leather working, community organizing, gravity-flow water systems, traditional carpentry (without power tools), and much, much more. For discussions specifically about long term scenarios, be sure to use the search word "multigenerational."

To provide some ideas on how to fight against a modern army, I wrote "Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse". (The last third of my novel describes modern resistance warfare, in fairly good detail.)

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Tuesday November 3 2009

Letter Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse

Mr. Rawles,
I am a retired Army warrant officer working for the Army teaching Electronic Warfare and Signal Intelligence. I only started reading your blog last week. It's addictive, but slightly disturbing.

Having worked for the Army for 27 years in a number of different failed countries I may have a unique perspective on survival that I would like to share with your readers. I believe most of the "survivalist community" is vastly underestimating the impact that other humans are going to have on their plans. Hunkering down and waiting for everyone to die off is a simplistic plan and I believe has almost no chance of working. You may be able to hide your retreat, but you can't hide the land it sits on. That land itself may become a scarce commodity if the US transitions to an agrarian economy.

Food is the key resource. Most communities are at risk because they simply don't have enough calories stored to get them through any kind of crisis. But, storage is no more than limited capital to allow people time to grow more food. Food production requires land....if your retreat is sitting on farmable land, it will be a scarce resource.

Carrying capacity of the US using non-petroleum farming techniques is far lower than most of your readers probably think. Also, most areas of the US, especially cities, don't have anywhere near enough farm-able land to go back to some kind of agrarian pattern. Without public infrastructure and modern transportation, we are going to experience a huge die-off caused mostly by starvation. In a total collapse scenario without immediate restoration of the economy, basically everyone who lives in a city is doomed unless they can take over some kind of farm land.

If you live in an area without enough farm land, you will be a "have not". Period. I don't care how much food you have stored in your basement.

Here is my key point. These teeming millions will not just starve and go away. I believe that anyone who thinks they can defend a working farm against raiders is deluding themselves.

1. People are dangerous. They are the most dangerous animal on earth. You can never lose sight of that! In almost any society breakdown scenario you can think of, you will be surrounded by starving predators that are much more dangerous than tigers. In the USA, every one of them (or at least the vast majority) will be armed with firearms. The ones currently without firearms will obtain them by any means necessary including looting government armories. These are thinking-breathing and highly motivated enemies.

2. Raiders, defined as "outlaw looting groups" may be a threat for a very short period, but I really don't see groups of more than 4-6 ever forming...they will be quickly replaced by much larger groups of "citizens" doing essentially the same things, but much better armed and organized.

An Example: A few hours after Albania's political crisis in 1998, (which was caused by a national lottery scam), almost every adult male in the country procured an AKM from government stocks. Armories were the first targets looted. I flew into Tirana packing a pistol and a sack of money, naively thinking I would be able to move around the country and defend myself. What a laugh. Everyone had me outgunned, and the vast majority of them had military training of some sort. I never got out of the capital city. Every road seemed to have roadblocks every few miles, blocked by armed local citizens.

3. Without central authority, people don't just starve and go away. They form their own polities (governments). These polities are often organized around town or city government or local churches. They may call it a city counsel or a committee or a senate. The bottom line is, "We The People" will do whatever "We" have to do to survive. And that specifically includes taking your storage goods.

4. When (not if) a polity forms near you, you had better be part of that process. If not, you will be looked upon as a "resource" instead of a member of the community. The local polity will pass a resolution (or whatever) and "legally" confiscate your goods. If you resist, they will crush you. They will have the resources of a whole community to draw upon including weapons, vehicles, manpower, electronics, tear gas, etc. Every scrap of government owned equipment and weaponry will be used, by someone. Anyone who plans to hold out against that kind of threat is delusional.

5. The local polity that forms is almost certainly going to make mistakes. Some of them are lethal blunders. Odds are, the locals will probably not have given a lot of serious thought to facing long term survival. They will squander resources and delay implementing necessary actions (like planting more food or working together to defend a harvest). They may even decide to take in thousands of refugees from nearby cities, thereby almost insuring their own longer term starvation.

A much better approach is to be an integral part of the community and use the combined resources of the community to defend all of your resources together. This would be much easier if a high percentage of the community were like minded folks who were committed to sharing and cooperating. Because any community with food is likely going to have to somehow survive while facing even larger polities, like nearby cities, counties or even state governments. Don't expect to face a walking hoard of lightly armed, starving individuals. Expect to face a professional, determined army formed by a government of some kind.

A small farming community can probably support a few outsiders, but not very many. The community will need to politically deal with outside polities or they will face a war they can't win. Hiding the fact that you are self sufficient is going to be hard. You can't hide farm land.

Defending your resources against the nearby city will be even harder. You may be able to save the community by buying protection with surplus food...if you have prepared for that. You may indeed have to fight, but stalling that event for even a year could mean the difference between living and being overwhelmed. In any case, your community needs to go into the crisis with a plan. You may be able to shape that plan if you become a community leader instead of a "resource". With Very Kind Regards, - R.J.

JWR Replies: You've summed up some essential truths quite succinctly. Your points square nicely with the scenario in my first novel ("Patriots"). It also matches my premise of gemeinschaft kampfgeist, in the context of cohesion in the "we/they paradigm."

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Monday November 2 2009

The Flash to Bang Count: Observations on the October Indonesian Asteroid Airburst

A few days ago, The Telegraph reported:

"An asteroid that exploded in the Earth's atmosphere with the energy of three Hiroshima bombs this month has reignited fears about our planet's defenses against space impacts. On 8 October, the rock crashed into the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The asteroid was around 20 meters across and hit the Earth's atmosphere at 45,000 mph. The blast was heard by monitoring stations 10,000 miles away, according to a report by scientists at the University of Western Ontario. Scientists are concerned that it was not spotted by any telescopes, and that had it been larger it could have caused a disaster. Luckily, due to the height of the explosion - estimated at between 15 and 20 km (nine to 12 miles) above sea level - no damage was caused on the ground."

Later reports mentioned and estimated 5 to 10 meter diameter for the asteroid. Let's consider the implications of this event. If this had happened in the skies over a First World nation, or if the explosion had taken places at ground level (or near ground level, a la the 1908 Tunguska event), then there would be a huge clamor and calls for early asteroid impact prediction, and greater preparedness. But since this took place above what most consider a backwater nation, and there was no visible damage on the ground to photograph, this news story was resigned to "minor headline" status. And what if the object had been 100 meters in diameter, instead of 20?

We've previously discussed asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits--also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs)-- and the consequences of potential impacts in SurvivalBlog.

Asteroid impacts are one of those "low likelihood but high disruption" events. The chances of one occurring in our lifetimes is relatively low, but if one were to happen, the implications would be huge. In anticipation of future asteroid impacts, here are some factors to consider:

An asteroid impact could cause short-term climate change that could in turn cause multi-year crop failures on a hemispheric or even global scale. This means that it would be prudent to have multiple years food storage
The importance of living in inland areas. Let's face it: coastal areas anywhere on earth are vulnerable to mega-tsunamis, if you factor-in the threat of asteroid impacts. Unless there is some massive intervening terrain, don't live at less than 500 feet above sea level if you must live within 25 miles of an ocean. A 300+ foot high tsunami might seem hard to imagine, but just ask an astrophysicist. It is possible, and in fact there is some geologic evidence that that mega-tsunamis have occurred in the past 6,000 years.
Never underestimate the implications of mass hysteria and misdirected government reaction to a crisis. News of imminent crop failures might inspire executive orders mandating the collection of "hoarded" food. Hint: This will probably include food that you started storing years ago--long before any imminent threat warning or post-incident panic buying. So I must again warn my readers that it is wise to keep a low profile about your preparations.

I have been studying the threat of asteroid impacts for many years. NEOs represent a "wild card"scenario. Since a fairly complete orbital path tracking database probably won't exist for 20+ years, this threat will remain an imponderable for the foreseeable future. Until a fully-populated database is developed, this will remain a quasi-voodoo science. The Indonesian event illustrates just how easy it is to get blind-sided. And even after we have complete tracking data, it will be decades longer before we start to proactively develop a program to "nudge" the larger NEO asteroids into safer orbits.

But again, keep in mind that this is one of those "low actuarial risk/high consequence" events. Plan accordingly.

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Sunday November 1 2009

Letter Re: Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare

I was thinking about the "I Am Your Worst Nightmare" post as I worked in my vegetable garden, preparing it for Spring. I wonder how long it would be until the Looters evolved their strategy
to the next levels, as follows:

Looter+1: Don't kill everyone, leave some alive to loot again later.

Looter+2: Plan to scare, rather than kill, your victims, so that they can continue farming and provide for your needs later. Dead victims can't work.

Looter+3: Claim a territory and collect "protection" money/goods from the people in your territory. Tell them that in return for only taking one-third of everything they produce, you will protect them from "looters" who will take it all and kill them in the bargain. Punish anyone who holds out.

Looter+4: Call your loot taxes. You are now a government.

Regards, - Bear

JWR Replies: Your observation is astute. In many nations, there is not much difference between "the government" and the bandito "Señor Calvera." (You may remember the bandit leader in The Magnificent Seven--which was the American remake of Akira Kurosawa's classic film Seven Samurai.)

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Friday October 30 2009

Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare, by Jeff T.

I am the leader of a band of 8-to-12 looters. I have some basic military training. We move from place to place like locusts devouring everything in our path. My group is armed with light weapons and can develop and follow simple plans of attack. We take what we want by force of arms. We prefer none of our victims survive because that could cause problems for us in the future.

It has been six months since the grid went down. You and the other five members of your party have settled into what may be a long grinding existence. The every day tasks of growing and gathering have now become routine. The news from the outside is extremely limited but you don’t really miss it much. Life is simple but physically demanding.

Although things may seem stable you will need to keep your team focused and alert. This is your first and most important layer of defense. You should hold an immediate reaction drill once per week. Keep things simple. Practice a specific response to such threats as injury, fire, attack and evacuation. Despite the challenges you must maintain contact with those around you such as neighbors for vital clues that trouble is brewing. Regular monitoring the radio will be critical in providing an early warning of trouble. You may be able to safely interview refugees with risking your party. Keep in mind the information you get from them may not always be reliable.

While you have been farming I have been learning the best tactics to employ to seize your property and your goods. I have been refining them since we hit the road right after the lights went out. I have conducted eight “hits” so far and have been successful seven times. Here are some of my “lessons learned”.

Intelligence gathering and target selection is critical to my success. Targets include those who have large quantities of fuel, food and other valuable supplies. My posse is constantly questioning anyone and everyone we contact searching for this our next victim. Anyone who has ever had knowledge, even second hand, of your preparations is someone of interest to me. I may approach them directly or indirectly. If anyone knows something I will find out about it. Who seems well-fed? Who still has transportation? Who has lights? Who was prepared? Where are they exactly? Somebody talks, either in person or on the radio. They always do.

We search for victims night and day. During the day we are listening for the sounds of machinery, cars, tractors, gunfire or generators. Day or night without a lot of wind those sounds can carry for miles. At night I look for any sort of light. Even a small flash indicates somebody with electricity and that means a rich target. I always have somebody listing to the scanner for any news, leads or insecure chatter.

Operational Security (OPSEC) is an important concept for your entire group to understand and maintain. If somebody outside your circle doesn’t have a real need to know about your plans, preparations or procedures then they shouldn’t know period. Develop a cover story and live it like was a bulletproof vest. It is no less important to your protection and survival. During an event you need to blend in with the surrounding environment. Carefully observe noise (such as generators and other engines) and light discipline especially at night. If you need to test fire weapons do it in one sequence to avoid a prolonged noise signature.

Once I find and target you reconnaissance of your retreat is my next step. Only a fool would try to rush in and try to overwhelm a group of “survivalists”. We had a bad experience with that during our second hit. Now we spend at least a day or two trying to size up a large opportunity and the best way to take it down. I will observe retreat activity from a nearby-concealed position. I will get an idea of your numbers, weapons, routines and so much more by careful surreptitious observation. If your group seems alert, I will try and trigger a false alarm with a dog or child to watch your reaction to a threat. That helps me know how you respond, where you are strong and how to attack. I may also obtain a topographical map of the area to identify likely avenues of approach and potential escapes routes you will try to use. I may coerce your neighbors into uncovering a weak spot or access point or other important intelligence. I also have a Bearcat handheld scanner. I will be listening for any insecure chatter from your radios.

Regular patrols at irregular intervals focused on likely observation points and avenues of approach could keep me at bay. You could put down sand or other soft soil in key choke points as a way of “recording” if anyone has recently traveled through the land. Dogs, with their advanced sense of hearing and smell are able to detect and alert you to intruders well in advance of any human. Motion sensing IR video cameras as a part of a security plan could play a part in your layered defense as long as you have power. A 24 hour manned observation point equipped with high quality optical tools is a must. It should be fortified and if possible concealed. It should have a weapon capable of reaching to the edges of your vision. Seismic intrusion devices, night vision and thermal imaging are phenomenal force multiplying tools. They can give you critical intelligence and warning. You should use them if you have them. Understand they are not fool proof and I can often neutralize them if I know you have them.

These tools and techniques provide you reaction time. Time to plan your response and time to execute that plan. Recognize that a “defender” is always at a disadvantage. By definition a defender will be reacting to my attack. Modern warfare has emphasized the ability of the attacker to operate faster than opponents can react. This can be explained by the OODA loop. Below are the four steps of the classic OODA loop. These are the steps a defender goes through when under attack.

1. Observing or noticing the attack.

2. Orient to the direction, method and type of attack.

3. Deciding what the appropriate response will be.

4. Acting on that decision.

As an attacker I will try and operate at a pace faster than you as a defender can adjust to. I will change my direction, pace, timing and method to force you to continue to process through the OODA loop. This creates confusion and wastes your precious reaction time. As a defender you will need to disrupt or reset your attackers timing with a counter-attack. When you are successful you become the attacker. Your defensive plans should utilize and exploit this concept. Here are a few scenarios:

1. Snipe & Siege

I will begin the attack when I can engage at least half of your party’s military age personnel in one coordinated effort. I will infiltrate my team into concealed positions around your retreat within 50 to 75 yards. I will target any identified leadership with the first volley. Two thirds of my people will be engaging personnel. The other group will target communications antennas, surveillance cameras and any visible lighting assets. I want your group unable to see, communicate or call for help. The members of my band will each fire two magazines in the initial exchange. Two thirds of my group will change to new concealed positions and wait. One third will fall back into an ambush of the most likely avenue of escape. We will stay concealed and wait until you come out to attend to your wounded and dead. We repeat the attack as necessary until any resistance is crushed.

Ensure you adjust the landscape around your retreat so that I don’t have anyplace offering cover or concealment within 100 yards of your residence. You can create decorative masonry walls that can be used to offer cover for personnel close to your residence. Fighting positions can be built now and used as raised planting beds and then excavated for use in the future. These can be extended or reinforced after any significant event. These structures or other measures such as trenching must be sited carefully to avoid allowing them to be used effectively by an attacker if they are overrun.

2. Trojan Horse

For one hit we used an old UPS truck. We forced a refugee to drive it to the retreat gate. We concealed half our group inside the truck. The truck was hardened on the inside with some sandbags around the edges. The other half of our group formed an ambush concealed inside the tree line along the driveway. We killed the driver to make it look good and had one person run away. Those preppers almost waited us out. After nearly three hours they all walked slowly down the driveway. They were bunched up in a group intent on checking out the truck and driver. It was like shooting fish in a barrel.

They could have worked together as group to sweep the area 360 degrees around the truck and they would have surely found us. A dog would have also alerted the residents to our presence. They could have taken measures to eliminate the vegetation offering us concealment on the road near the gate. They could have used CS gas or something similar to “deny” any suspicious areas. Lastly they could have done a “reconnaissance by fire”. Shooting into likely hiding spots, including the truck, trying to evoke a response. They should have established an over watch position with the majority of their group. This over watch group would have provided visual security and an immediate response if there were an attack. They were not expecting any additional threats. They didn’t consider that there might be additional danger lurking nearby aside from the truck and they died.

3. Kidnap & Surrender

A few weeks ago we surprised and captured a couple of women out tending a garden. It was totally by chance. We were traveling through a very rural area on our way to another town when somebody heard a tractor backfire. We immediately stopped and I sent a small team to recon the noise. They bumped into a small party tending a field at the edge of their retreat. They seized two women and immediately dragged them back to our vehicles. We began negotiations by sending a finger from each one back to the retreat under a white flag. The rest was easy.

This didn’t need to happen. Better noise discipline would have kept us from discovering their retreat. Some simple boundary fencing or tangle foot could have delayed us. The women should have been armed and aware of such a threat. If they has established an over watch for the garden they could have engaged us before we took our hostages or at least alerted the others that there was a problem. They also could have had a quick reaction SOP developed prior to this incident. That Quick Reaction (QR) force could have followed the kidnappers back to our vehicles and set up an ambush of their own. Rural retreat security is a full time job. If you snooze you may lose everything.

4. Fire and Maneuver

I don’t like this option but sometimes the prize is just too tempting. We typically infiltrate quietly at night to prearranged start points. We begin our attack just before dawn when your senses are dulled by a long night watch or from sleep. Based on our reconnaissance we divided your retreat into positions or zones that need specific attention. We prepare for battle by using an air rifle to target any lights or cameras. Our first priority is to engage any LP/OP site and destroy or degrade them as much as possible. I split my forces into two supporting groups. One group keeps the target position under constant fire. The other group also fires and maneuvers, closing on the target and destroying it with gunfire or improvised weapons. Many times these positions only have one occupant and the task is relatively easy. Often these positions are easy to spot and are too far from each other to provide any effective mutual support. We will work from one position to the next. In the darkness and confusion most of the defenders are disoriented and ineffective. They fall like dominos. We have also used motorcycles to negotiate obstacles and speed through cuts in the perimeter fence. Then throw Molotov Cocktails into any defensive position as they roar past. If you fall back into your residence we will set up a siege. If we can maneuver close enough, perhaps by using a distraction, we will pump concentrated insecticide into your building or we may introduce LP gas from a portable tank into the house and ignite it with tracer fire.

If there was enough warning time from your OP you could execute a pre-planned response. Your planned response should be simple, easy to understand and execute. Half your group occupies your fighting positions, two to a position. The rest of your party establishes an over watch and concentrate its fire at the enemies trying to fix your positions. If you had more than enough prepared positions the enemy might not know where to attack. It would also provide more flexibility in your defense based on the direction of attack. I would use Night Vision if available or illumination from flares or lights as a last resort. Rats hate light.

Usually people keep main access points blocked from high-speed approach. Likely avenues of approach should also be blocked or choked and kept under observation. Remember though what keeps me out keeps you in. Typically the common techniques of parking vehicles in roadways will only delay my approach not stop it altogether. An ordinary 12-gauge shotgun, shooting slugs, can stop most types of non-military vehicles at close range.

Don’t forget the threat of fire or other non-traditional weapons in your defensive plans.

You could create the illusion of a “dead end” for your main access road by positioning a burned out trailer home or a couple of burned out cars at the false “end” of the road. Concealing the fact that the road actually continues to your residence.

Lastly, develop a plan to evacuate and evade capture. When faced with a significantly superior force it may be the only viable option. This should include simple, reliable communications or signals such as three blasts on a dog whistle. Your fighting positions and barriers need to be constructed to allow coordinated withdrawal in an emergency. You should establish a rally point and time limit to assemble. I believe this should be a priority in your practice drills. During a real emergency you may be able to rally, rearm and plan your own version of the “snipe and siege” to retake your retreat.

Key messages:

Your rural retreat defense can be visualized as a set of concentric rings:

Location – Location – Location: High and remote are best
OPSEC – Think of it as a form of armor or shield: Practice it and protect it.
Observation Post / Listening Post: Your first best chance to counter attack
Gates / Fences / other barriers: May slow me down. Might keep you in.
Fighting positions: Must provide mutual support and allow for evacuation.
Residence: Last line. Don’t become trapped
People, Planning and Practice

Remember:

An aggressive and unexpected counter strike can win the battle.
Stay alert for multiple threats or diversionary tactics.
Criminals excel at feigning weakness to lower your guard.

Don’t underestimate me.

Reading for further study:

The Defence of Duffer's Drift, by Major General Sir Ernest Dunlop Swinton (1905)

US Army FM 5-15 Field Fortifications

US Army FM 5-103 Survivability

Online OODA Resources

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Letter Re: University of California Disaster Preparedness Videos

Jim:

While scanning through iTunes U, I found a television (or audio) series from University of California TV on disaster preparedness. They are professionally produced and contain a wealth of information about about emergency response systems are intended to work. Included here are four of the fifteen or so shows that they have put together. The ones I have included are Natural Disasters, Chemical and Biological Agents, Pandemic Influenza and Emerging Infections and Disaster Volunteerism

They go over several case studies that happened in California, but talk about organizations generally enough that it is applicable to most areas with advanced emergency response systems. At the end, I have included links to more shows in UCTV disaster preparedness series.

Here are some video links and excerpted brief summaries:

Disaster Preparedness: Natural Disasters

Transportation and care
Multiple disasters co-existing (earthquake, fire, flood)

Wild fire
-larger then expected

Family Preparedness
-Family network - getting everyone involved
-List of material that needs to be packed to go
-Long distance phones can work (call to foreign county, deliver message, foreign county calls to local number you could not reach), calling local people sometimes doesn't when the disaster is local. This would appear to be a failure of the phone system to update their routing tables dynamically.
-Define a meeting place for your family
-Stores and supplies at home
-Tent, stove, propane, water
-72 hour critical supply of food, medicine and water
-Laundry - Something I had not thought about
-Communications and information management, one of the most difficult things
-Real time information systems - where the fire is, what the evacuations plan is
-After action report - learn from what worked and what didn't
-Reverse 911 only works for land lines.
-Multiple layers of communications, multiple contacts per person
-"Alternative care sites" shelter, Fairgrounds, school gymnasiums, arenas, animal shelters
-Special needs patients, elderly, dialysis
-First day great, everyone helping one another - Day 2 short tempers - social workers and behavioral specialists needed, neighborhoods forming
-It is mentioned *many* times that people will not leave their pets behind. Include them in your preps.

Earthquake
-Single point of contact - single voice speaking for a set of resources
-If you build it, they will come. Where lights are on, people go there.
There are several phases
1. Immediate injuries - Crush injuries, Amputations, Head injuries, airway obstruction
2. Secondary illnesses - Blood pressure medication, diabetes medication, increased rate of heart attack and child birth
95% are rescued by local responders and volunteers in the first 24 hours.

Disaster Preparedness: Chemical and Biological Agents

Disaster Preparedness: Pandemic Influenza and Emerging Infections

Disaster Preparedness: Disaster Volunteerism

More Programs in Emergency Preparedness / Emergency Medicine

Regards, - Ben M.

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Thursday October 22 2009

Lessons Learned from Hurricanes Ike, Rita, and Katrina, by TiredTubes

In September, 2008, Hurricane Ike--a Category 4 hurricane--pounded the Gulf Coast of the southern US. Some coastal communities like Crystal Beach no longer really exist. Inland, life was severely disrupted. For those of us on the South Coast hurricanes are a frequent reality. We were quite well prepared, but used the disruptions and dislocations as a test and opportunity to tune up our preparations.

1. Be ready to help others and to accept help We didn't need much during Ike, but the power went out before a neighbor finished boarding up his house. My 1 KW inverter, hooked up to his idling truck provide the juice for a Skilsaw and a few lights; allowing him to finish. Usually it is skills and not "stuff" that helps others and yourself. Besides strengthening a neighborly friendship, the number of damaged houses was probably reduced by one.

2. Keep your stuff squared away.. I repaired a few generators during and after Ike. I observed that every one suffering from lack of use; i.e. gasoline that resembled turpentine in the carburetor. People were at a complete loss to understand this. My daugher-in-law owned one of the generators that I repaired. She ignored my admonition to change the dirty oil ASAP and then once every 50 hours. Early in the next week it [ran out of oil and] threw a rod. She was in the dark for another week. Just a $2.99 quart of oil would have saved discomfort, ruined food, etc.

My portable genset, loaned to my daughter, was ready to go; fresh oil, filters, valves set, exercised, load tested. It started on the first try. I came to check it and change it's oil as soon as it was safe to travel. The first thing that I did was turn it so the exhaust faced away from the house! She had placed it so that the starter rope was in a convenient spot. At least she had, like I had asked, chained and locked it to a foundation pier.

After every hurricane Darwin gets a few through accidental carbon monoxide poisoning. Don't join them. If you have a generator, get a carbon monoxide detector in case the wind changes and wafts exhaust in your windows.

Our own [permanently-installed] genset uses natural gas (a tri-fuel generator) which in the majority of cases is superior and much cheaper to operate. Over the 11 days that we didn't have power it consumed $100 worth of natural gas. I estimate that an equivalent amount of gasoline would have cost more than $300. I stopped it every 75 hours for oil and filter. If your genset doesn't have an hour meter, then add one. There are some inexpensive self contained hour meters made for lawn equipment that work very well and require no hard wiring. It's really the only practical way to keep track of operating time, without which, intelligent maintenance is impossible.

I noticed that many generators, some still in the box, on Craigslist following Hurricane Ike at bargain basement prices. I recommended to a friend he latch onto one of these and purchase a dual-fuel gasoline/natural gas carburetor] kit. Ants can profit from short-sighted grasshoppers.

It goes without saying have all your vehicles filled up and serviced so they can be depended upon with out much attention. Pay particular attention to cooling systems, oil changes, tire pressures, belts and battery terminals.

Develop a pre-event SOP: When we hear of a hurricane in the Gulf, we pick up loose items like branches that can be thrown by high winds and cause damage (aviators call this rubbish FOD), trim trees, check prescriptions, recharge everything rechargeable, treat the swimming pool with "shock" chlorine, get all the laundry and dishes done, get all the trash out for pickup, take “before” pictures, etc., etc., etc.

3. Have backups for your backups. The portable generator above was our backup to the natural gas-fueled genset. Then an inverter and ups. After that is a 100 Watt solar array I've been tinkering with to provide power for security lighting,etc.

My daughter spent up to two hours a day foraging gas, mostly waiting in lines. She found out that the problem with gasoline-fuel generators is gasoline! It's expensive, in short supply (when it is needed most), and it takes gas to go and get gas! Needless to say I rounded up the parts and the portable is now a dual fuel machine. Had it been able to use natural gas then she could have stayed home and been one less person waiting in line. And the machine still retains the capability to burn gasoline!

Since gasoline became hard to come by (it was impossible to get for a week after Rita) but diesel fuel was plentiful we did any necessary traveling in my old diesel Mercedes (which is EMP proof, BTW).

One important word on generators: Treat yours like it is the last one you'll ever get. Try and get a good one, I prefer either a Honda or Briggs Vangard engine. My Vangard portable is approx 10 years old and absolutely dependable. The difference is methodical maintenance. Keep the manuals, and read 'em ! Keep the oil changed, keep a fresh spark plug, keep spare [oil, air, and fuel] filters. Most importantly run it under load once a month. Unless it's new, pull off the cowling and clean all the dirt and dust from fins on the cylinder jug. Closely examine the starter rope, the fuel lines, et cetera. Replace 'em if they ain't perfect.

If you get a permanently installed generator carefully consider installing a manual transfer switch and other upgrades. With the exception of automatic "exercising" fully automatic generators these add a layer of complication and cost.

Don't store gasoline in the machine other than enough for one periodic test run. Develop a ritual on test runs: such as every other payday, or the last Saturday in the month, to reduce it to a ritual. I run mine monthly whilst cutting the back yard lawn. (The mower makes more noise.)

For storage between test runs: On portable gensets [with the ignition off, slowly ] pull the cord until you can feel that the engine is at the top of the compression stroke. This is where the engine feels like you are pulling it through a "detent". It puts the piston at the top of the bore and closes both valves. This protects the cylinder from moisture. If you store gasoline then use stabilizer, after six months burn it in your car and replace it. Few experiences are worse that trying to clean out a carburetor by a dim flashlight whilst being consumed alive by salt marsh mosquitoes. Trust me on this. BTW, I've had better results storing "winter" blended gas, since t has more light fractions and starts easier year round.

If you use gas cans; stick with metal, preferably safety cans. Plastics are slightly permeable and it will go bad much faster in a plastic can. On that note, [in humid climates] don’t keep spare spark plugs with the machine. This is because in outdoor storage the insulators can absorb moisture [and the metal parts can corrode]. Keep them inside or in a sealed can with some silica gel. An old one-quart paint can is ideal.

If you have a dual-fuel machine, then break the engine in on gasoline and make sure it operates properly on both fuels under load. Keep the necessary connectors for gas operation on the machine so that you don't have to go searching for that 3/8ths-inch pipe nipple with a flashlight.

Use high quality oils, and have enough. Don't forget to also store plenty of 2-stroke [fuel mixing] oil and chain oil if you intend to use a chainsaw. Maybe store some extra for your neighbors that are less prudent. I use Rotella brand synthetic oil and Wix brand filters, and have had good results with them.

Make sure you have enough oil, filters and plugs for at least two weeks (336 hours), or longer. Don't forget about your equipment after the crisis is over: There are valves to set, oil and plugs to change, etc. Even if you own two generators and have enough flashlights, automatic emergency lights, et cetera, things can, and may likely go wrong. Small children usually do not take kindly to being plunged into total darkness. Unless it is TEOTWAWKI, keep the candles in the cupboard, especially if there are small children about.

4. Double your plans for helping other people. Several relatives from coastal areas evacuated to our house (approximately 50 miles inland). I keep a 55 gallon drum of stabilized gasoline to fill up their cars to get them home. This was a lesson learned after the Rita evacuation cluster. How much food you will go through will surprise you. It finally dawned upon us that we almost always eat dinner (lunch to you Northerners) and sometimes breakfast away from home. So what we consumed whilst hunkered down seemed out of proportion.

We also sent some food home with people to hold them over. I was able to "lend" a retired neighbor enough generated power to keep his freezer, television, and fan going. He was genuinely happy. This also meant that he was one less person in line for ice, food, and so forth.

5. Keep a dial up phone line around, after 24 hours the cell phone tower generators started running out of propane, the cable modem (and the cable) went down with the power. Remember how to make that dial-up modem work.

If you're not a Ham radio operator, then find out where the local hams conduct their emergency nets, and listen on your shortwave radio (HF) or scanner (2-meter and 440 band) and you'll know a lot more that the local television news truck can find out.

If you have cable television, then keep a traditional antenna handy. If you live near a major market the local AM news station, then it is probably a good bet. Have a good UPS, plug the computer and the desk lamp into it. If you have a cordless phone, plug it into the UPS too. The UPS will take the "bumps" out of the generator's power; your computer will thank you. Make sure you test the UPS periodically by plugging in a 100 Watt lamp and pulling the plug on the UPS. I find I need to replace that UPS battery about every 2-to-3 years.

6. Plan for the guests. Have plenty of soap, have a small flashlight (preferably with rechargeable batteries) for each guest. Have things other than television to keep youngsters occupied. Try and get plenty of rest. You'll probably be plenty busy after you can poke your head out again. In this vein don't forget dishwashing supplies, laundry supplies, baby supplies, etc. If it's a predictable event such as a hurricane, have all the dishes and laundry done. before it hits.

A television in a room by itself will keep the racket contained from those who want to read, play games or just sleep. If you have the space, then a “quiet room” where people can just rest, read, be alone, have some privacy or get a fussy to baby to sleep cuts down on contagious stress.

7. Make sure you are medically prepared. Have a rather complete first aid kit that includes a backboard and splinting materials. There will be plenty of cuts,scrapes, bruises, sunburns and sore muscles in the aftermath. Have Band-Aids, 4x4s, neosporin, peroxide etc. Have plenty of acid reducer and immodium on hand (stress and unfamiliar cooking), have at least two weeks of prescription drugs on hand [and preferably much more for any chronic health issues]. Have a good assortment of Tylenol, cold and sinus preparations, BenGay [muscle ointment], good multivitamins, etc.

8.Be extra, extra, extra careful. You getting sick or more likely injured can really mess things up for everyone you have prepared for. Not to mention that the local fire/ambulance is probably already overtaxed. Be extremely careful handling fire and fuels. A lot of us are not entirely fluent in using chainsaws, small engines, fixing roofs, trimming trees and moving debris.[JWR Adds: safety equipment including heavy gloves, kevlar chainsaw safety chaps, and a combination safety helmet with face shield and muffs are absolute "musts"!] Don't get in a hurry unless there is a threat to life. Be hyper cautious, be very aware of your surroundings and things that can go wrong. Don’t toil alone. Make sure you have a clear path to beat a hasty retreat if things go wrong. Wear those gloves, safety glasses, boots and maybe a hard hat.

Don't overtax yourself. Getting a fallen the tree off of the roof today avails you little if it triggers a heart attack or heat stroke. Ask God's assistance and start over tomorrow.

Keep fire extinguishers near the gas generator, in the kitchen, and near the camp stove.

Avoid using candles at all costs, and absolutely prohibit smoking indoors for the duration. Have more than enough battery smoke detectors around.

9. Be ready to make temporary repairs.. The missing shingles, damaged windows, etc. Have some plywood, a few 2x4s, some Visqueen polyethylene sheeting, batting boards, duct tape, a tarp, some nails, and so forth around. If you happen to have a good cordless drill, then you'll find sheet rock and deck screws are very superior to nails. If you're squared away then you already have this stuff , but a neighbor might be in need, so buy extra.

Debris creates flat tires for quite some time after many events. Have a tire plug kit and a 12 VDC compressor in each vehicle. Repairs to structures, especially roof repairs guarantee nails in tires. Be ready for them..

Have everything rechargeable recharged. Make sure you have some traditional non-power tools, I have a handsaw that I've had for decades, a good bow saw, ax, maul, sledge and an old eggbeater style hand drill still get regular use.

10. If I had my choice of just one utility it would be running water. Fortunately where we reside is served by a well run rural utility district which has prepared well for hurricanes. Failing this, in addition to stored water I have a portable gas utility pump (Robin brand) that can pressurize our water system from our pool and has sufficient capacity for a fire line. The pool got a good jolt of shock a day before the storm hit.

11.Keep some cash money handy. For a few days [with no utility power] there were no functional ATMs, and no way to use credit or debit cards.

12. Keep a low profile. About a week after Ike a passerby indignantly asked "How'd you get your lights turned on?" This showed his ignorance on several levels. He seemed to think someone just had to flip a switch downtown and "shazam!" his lights are on. I couldn't make him understand there has to be an unbroken physical link between a power plant and consumer, this seemed to aggravate his obvious helplessness. Telling him that we had been making our own juice seemed to irritate him. I wonder who he voted for? People with this mindset (that the world owes them something) could be a genuine liability in a real catastrophe. (BTW on a news show during a piece about energy, I actually heard a lady refer to natural gas as “just another dirty fossil fuel”) and not be challenged on the facts. Little minds scare me. I think that the hyper-liberals would love to use the heavy hand of government to force the ants take care of the grasshoppers. Keep a low profile. The best advice I ever heard on the subject (I believe it was Howard J. Ruff ) was to "keep your principles public and your actions private".

13. Keep a notebook, keep a record of what happened, but especially keep a record of preps you overlooked or screwed up, or stuff you ran out of, or skills that need to be added or honed. That's where most of the preceding information came from! Also keep tabs on what's scarce after an event. Gas was scarce, but diesel plentiful after Rita. In contrast, after Ike there was plenty of fuel, but few operating stations due to lack of power. (There was a "mandatory evacuation" during Rita which turned out to be a fatal traffic jam for a few poor souls which quickly emptied the filling station tanks.) Out our way the local Wal-Mart made a heroic effort and opened up on locally-generated power, two days after Ike. The sheriff’s department was there to “maintain order”. (Let’s just say that they actually wear brown shirts here.). This event was a lifetime opportunity to study the varied behaviors of people under stress.

There were plenty of canned goods and auto supplies. But fresh fruits and veggies were a little thin, no meat due to lack of refrigeration for a few days, batteries, Coleman fuel, trash bags, paper plates, disposable diapers, formula, and nails evaporated. The pharmacy was closed.

Even with the numerous mistakes we made, we were able to stay safe, secure and comfortable and help others while "victims" were standing or idling their car engines in lines. It was an opportunity to try things out under more or less controlled conditions. WTSHTF there will not be controlled conditions!

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Monday October 19 2009

Twenty-Two Reasons Why this Recession is Different and Why it Will Endure

I find it surprising that I'm now getting inquiries from readers, asking if "we've reached bottom" in the current economic recession, and asking if the time has come to start buying stocks or residential real estate. It seems that the talking heads of mainstream media are using some sort of voodoo. How can anyone think that we've hit bottom, and an economic recovery is in progress? To dispel the myths from the CNBC Cheering Section, please consider the following. (And note that I've provided references for each assertion, just so you know that I'm not talking out of my ~~camouflage~~ hat.):

A broken global credit market that has not fully recovered. See: After Lehman, U.S. firms adjust to new face of credit
Lack of transparency in Mortgage-Backed Securities and other re-packaged debt instruments. See: Geithner Blames Lack of Transparency for OTC Derivatives Hit on Market.
The increasing Federal debt, which is growing at an unprecedented rate. See: The National Debt Clock.
Mountains of consumer and corporate debt. See: Observations on the US Debt.
The Federal budget deficit. See: Federal Deficit Hits All-Time High of $1.42 Trillion.
Ever-expanding bailouts. (I call this The MOAB.) See: As More Companies Seek Aid, 'Where Do You Stop?'
Monetization of the National Debt. See: Fed Could Expand MBS Purchases. (Can you spell Oroborus?):
The destruction of the American consumer economy. (It had been artificially credit-driven). See: A Year After The Crisis, The Consumer Economy Is Dead.
Chronic unemployment, possibly much higher than officially reported. See: Alternate Data at ShadowStats.
More than $500 Billion USD in hedge funds that have borrowed short and lent long. See: Assets invested in hedge funds increase by $100bn
A double wave of residential mortgage rate resets. See: this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets.
Continued down-ratcheting of house prices. See: Housing Prices Will Continue to Fall, Especially in California
The under-reported "shadow inventory" of foreclosed houses. See: The "Shadow" Foreclosure Inventory
The very likely collapse of commercial real estate ("the other shoe to drop".) See: Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
A huge crisis lurking in over-the-counter derivatives. See my analysis published in 2006 and the dozens of articles on the Derivative Dribble Blog.
Under-funded pensions. See: Almost half of top unions have under funded pension plans.
A coming wave of municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures. See: The Failure of Leveraged Municipal Bond Hedge Funds.
Increasing numbers of bank failures. See: FDIC: Bank Failures to Cost Around $100 Billion.
Insurance company collapses--some, like AIG, were foolish enough to insure more than a trillion dollars in derivative contracts. See: AIG: Is the Risk Systemic?
Worsening state, county, and city budget crises. See: State prepares for shutdown as budget deadline looms, and this article from a liberal site: Predicting Worse Ahead from America's Economic Crisis.
Loss of faith in the US Dollar, on the FOREX. See: Dollar's reserve currency status in focus as G-7 finance ministers meet.
The coming mass currency inflation, following some asset deflation. See: Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?

Back in the Fall of 2008, I started hearing from consulting clients with notes of fear in their voices. They realized that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they could not properly isolate and articulate the problem. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that they sensed is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate.

America will continue in recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But the recession that began in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone.

The Federal governments's debt, just by itself is cause for concern. As an old gunsmithing friend mine, the late Chuck Brumley, was fond of saying: “If your outgo exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall." Several decades of profligate spending by the US Congress are finally starting to take their toll. Just because their friend Helicopter Ben has a high-speed printing press does mean that they can continue to spend money like drunken sailors in definitely. (On second thought, I should apologize for impugning the reputation of drunken sailors. They are actually much more conservative with their funds than congressmen.)

Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures.

Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.)

The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse.

"Big Picture" Implications

As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend long, and effectively use debt compounded upon debt.

Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDSes). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so most derivatives contract holders are only just now experiencing their first major recession. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not yet experienced a full scale "blow up" of derivatives, but I predict that if and when it happens, it will be spectacular. The pinch in CDSes (a form of derivative contract) in 2008 was just a faint foreshadowing of what we'd experience in a a full-blown derivatives collapse.

The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on the street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse in the summer of 2008, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama.

The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even governments will go under as this tumult plays out. (Take note of the recent vote of no confidence in Latvia.) The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late 1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will inevitably result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.)

Mitigating the Risks

Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends and /or relatives that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.)

Since additional large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business.

In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life.

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Letter Re: Gear that is Hidden in Plain Sight

James,
I have built a series of Hidden in Plain Sight (HIPS) bird house caches that can conceal a Seahorse Waterproof Case. These cases are similar to a Pelican brand case. The Seahorse company has cases developed for pistols, so I have built a birdhouse. It is a 4-place birdhouse.Two of the spaces are real bird houses, but the other two are dummies, with the top on hinges. The Seahorse case fits nicely inside. My thoughts on this were, for instance, say an intruder breaks into your home in suburbia, your space is compromised, you have enough time and thought to get you, your wife, and child out through a window or back door. You'd then go to the HIPS box retrieve your track phone and your Colt .45, call 911 and have your pistol in the event that the malefactors come after you. I am considering applying for a patent of sorts on this type of home security devices. They come in different configurations colors and made for different birds specified for regional "fit" for the back yard Thanks for all that you do, it is really appreciated. - Gary

JWR Replies: That is a captivating concept, Gary. OBTW, I concur with concept of having a Model 1911 in hand before dialing 911. ("1911 before 911.")

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Saturday October 17 2009

Two Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor

Dear Editor:
This civil debate on the status of the Dollar--and thanks, by the by, for keeping things civil on your blog--all comes down to a matter of not "if", but just "when." The United States Dollar will soon be dead meat. Finis. See this article: Reckoning Day for US Dollar Coming Next Year. We just need to ask: will the[definitive] end [for the dollar's dominant reserve status] come in six months, or six years? So, no matter when, I'm hedging by building up my stash of silver and lead. (The kind that goes "bang.") Since I'm still paying off college loans, my investing is very "modest". As one of the impoverished masses, I followed your advice and I'm gradually building up a supply of nickels. I'm also culling through a few rolls of half dollars from my bank every week. (I live in a small town in Texas.) So far I've found 9 pre-1965 [90% silver half-dollars] and 46 post-'64/pre-'71 [40% silver] halves. It's like finding buried treasure! It sure beats watching Wheel of Fortune on TV. The result of my effort is tangible. Thank you, thank you for mentioning [searching through half dollar rolls]. It is great way for people like me that are just getting started, after college. - Jason V.

Dear Jim and Family,
Those were interesting responses to my post that this dollar-dump rumor is just another rumor. I must point out, importantly, that everything the Saudis say is a lie, including "Hello". They promised $200 per barrel oil in 2008. Lie. They promised repeatedly to decouple themselves from the US dollar unless we do their bidding. Lie. They swore they do not provide money to Osama and his Al Qaeda terrorist network. Subsequent research by reporters proved this to be a lie but the Saudis went to the UK, sued for libel, won in the UK, and had the ruling applied to the author of the book and articles in question here in the USA under some sort of twisted reciprocity ruling which makes sense only to judges and crazy people. Yet another reason that globalism is bad.

Yes, the Dollar is dying. However, it is not dying quickly, and while there's a slim chance it could all go at once in a single day, history, particularly recent history, shows that to be unlikely. The Housing Bubble [collapse] happened over months. The Dot.Com [stock[collapse] took weeks. The Derivatives market crash is still happening and the housing bubble is still half inflated and won't be resolved until 2012 or 2013, depending on government interference, bankster greed, and economic inertia. A dollar crash would cause too many nations would lose control of their violent populations -- by this I mean populations counting on bribes, payoffs, and other forms of corruption bought with dollars to keep their peace. The ones who would gain the most by decoupling from the Dollar are also those who have the most to lose. If there was a viable world reserve currency which was everywhere the dollar was, from bars in Panama to the swamps of the Congo, the banks of Switzerland, the docks of Shanghai and the factory in Abilene, then I think we would have reason to worry. Without that existing everywhere, like the dollar, this is a silly rumor just like all the other silly rumors to erupt from the mouth of yet another lying Saudi.

It isn't Optimism if you're realistic and observant. They call this "Pragmatism". Sincerely , - InyoKern

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Friday October 16 2009

Getting Prepared for EMP or a Solar Storm, by David in Israel

Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) of the regional effect scale is a threat during times of potential crisis with a megaton class nuclear equipped foe who also has near-space launch capability for these weapons. An EMP-like event of greater strength and duration is also possible during extreme solar flare events. These types of event are caused by ionospheric excitation of the upper atmosphere by subatomic particles and plasma ejected from a massive solar discharge, this motion in the conductive plasma generates massive amounts of radio waves.

An antenna is any conductor of electricity which inductively converts radio waves into voltage, usually grabbing signals in the microvolt range, but--like a tuned guitar string vibrates in harmony when another tuned guitar string is plucked--an antenna best resonates to a frequency resonant with its length. I would ask the readers to quickly brush up on antenna theory with one of the many excellent tutorials on the Internet.

Fortunately for off the grid equipment like portable electronics and vehicles an antenna that best receives these high energy HF radio waves is measured in tens of meters, unfortunately that makes things like electrical power lines and long antennas particularly well suited to absorbing and transmitting large induced voltages into your sensitive solid state electronics.

It is important to remember, if you are concerned about EMP follow the old instructions for during a thunderstorm, disconnect all antennas and unplug your electronics. At a minimum filter your mains power and install gas discharge tubes on antenna feeds for mission critical radios.

Why do the tube tech gadgets survive where solid state dies from HERF? When an errant voltage spike enters a vacuum tube it can just discharge itself to ground if strong enough (so ground everything electronic at every opportunity), the other large components can also mostly take a sudden flash of high voltage without being destroyed. In solid state the junction size is almost universally quite small and if a reversed voltage is applied against the bias of the semiconductor or an over-voltage is applied the gate is almost always ruined in a way that requires component replacement.

While tube tech is much more survivable in an EMP environment, and HF (shortwave) radios are at high risk being tuned to the most affected bands, I wish to remind the readers that in nearly all other categories tube tech is far less survivable and is notoriously wasteful of precious off-grid electricity. The several downsides to "hollow state" tech is mechanical fragility and short life span compared to solid state, we are talking about blown glass and incandescent filaments essentially like a box of light bulbs to the uninitiated. In a well stocked retreat a tube type radio could be an asset after serious preps have been completed, although for the price of a quality collectors item several high quality military grade (civilian ham radio) solid state radios, the tools and parts to repair them, and proper antenna line and power input traps for errant voltage could be purchased providing much better reliable communications to your retreat than tube tech could.

I actually like to play with hollow state components especially when whipping up simple DIY radios and electronics with the kids, it is a much better visual learning tool which can be used to explain how the solid state components work.

I highly recommend that any serious survivalist invest in several good butane soldering irons, quality fluxed lead alloy solder, and a good tackle box full of replacement components, these can either be harvested from junked electronics or purchased in large grab bags form most large electronics engineering supply outlets. The Brunton Fuel Tool [lighter filling adaptor] makes keeping butane in a usable form easier for a prepper by avoiding the mostly incompatible gas cigarette lighter refill cans and instead using lantern/stove cartridges. These, combined with quality test equipment means that most damaged, shot, soaked, or even EMP-damaged electronics could be saved if you have the time to spare testing out components.

If the readers fail to procure the required hollow state and solid state components and practice their electronics repair skills by kitting or repairing intentionally damaged electronics they will not be able to use these skills during a crisis where mission critical equipment might be taken offline.

You must intelligently train, equip yourself for, and practice your medical, electronics, on and off-road driving, long range bicycling, cooking, fieldcraft, armed and unarmed combat, loaded hiking, carpentry, navigation, boating, food preservation, butchering, cycling, farming, veterinary, water finding, cooking, hunting, fishing, leadership, metal smithing, mechanical repair and fabrication, engineering and other critical survival skills. Being a real survivor has nothing to do with hobby shooting, wide-eyed fanatics, or overweight dude commandos, it is about living your life with the calm confidence that you are walking in the path that the Lord has set out for you while taking reasonable precautions to protect the life you have been given as well as being a vital asset to your family and community. - David in Israel

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Three Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor

James Wesley,
Regarding the oil-denominated-in-dollars flurry, two important points must be noted. First, dollar denominated contracts can be immediately hedged in foreign exchange markets (FOREX) even before the oil is pumped out of the ground. The oil barons aren't stuck holding their dollars any longer than they can call a FOREX desk or sovereign Treasury department (3/4 of the world's oil is owned by governments, not Exxon/Chevron/etc.)

The more important point of dollar-denominated oil contracts is dollar prestige. Documents from the Federal Reserve show that Arthur Burns not only was interfering with the gold markets three decades ago, but the level of cloak-and-dagger efforts to keep the dollar as the world's reserve currency for political power.

Dollar-denominated oil contracts purposes are to preserve hegemony, not prop up foreign central banks' currency reserve. Godspeed, - Brian in Wisconsin

Sir:
The current situation with the US Dollar is best described as a near perfect case of the Prisoner's Dilemma. The best thing for big holders of US Dollars to do is get rid of dollars as fast as is possible without tipping any other significant holders off that they are doing it. Otherwise their best bet is to get rid of their dollars before anyone else does. If someone did that, it would trigger a crash. The only thing stopping everyone right now is that a dollar crash would likely tank the global economy as well. It is beginning to appear that the carry-trade being funded in US Dollars could be the tipping point for serious action as it is relentlessly driving the value of the dollar down. Just look at a chart of the Dollar Index over the past six months. It is clear that the Federal Reserve has no stomach to raise interest rates to stop this progression of events since that would crash our own economy. It would not take a large event to bring the dollar crashing down any time now. - Mike B.

Jim
First, as other people have pointed out here, Iraq provides very little US oil due to its geographic location. The war in Iraq is in no way related to the US oil market. Rather, Iraq is a prime supplier to Europe, in which case a switch from Dollar to Euro was perfectly reasonable (and suited Saddam's temperament). It would be ridiculous to start a trillion dollar war over such a trivial item. There were much more significant reasons, which I'll offer in a separate post for discussion. However, the overall global trend is to diversify from single currencies, which I regard as a healthy movement. A great many of our current global economic problems stem from overemphasizing the paper dollar. The former USSR had the same problem--consider what the Ruble is worth now, versus what the USSR claimed it to be worth (About $5 US, in their over-inflated opinion). Personally, I've never been one for paper money. I prefer to convert it to capital, such as inventory, home equity, useful vehicles and food. You can always trade food. You cannot eat money. - Michael Z. Williamson, SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large

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Wednesday October 14 2009

Water, Water Everywhere?, by David in Israel

James,
I think it important to remind the readers of survivalblog to assess their water supply situation in the event of a local or national emergency. Much of the western united states even the well irrigated areas are actually truly considered high desert and could nor supply even 10% of the population should access be lost to the water supply infrastructure. Unfortunately many people have lived their whole life with functional first world plumbing and the clear knowledge that magical faucets, toilets, and shower heads will always have a supply of clean potable water.

It is imperative that anyone planning a retreat have redundant water supply plans including water table maps and locations of springs and open bodies of water. Planning must include which water tables are affected by drought.

The best sources of water are existing deep wells or open un-dammed bodies of water, plans must include how to pump or transport the water to your retreat.

Since water is probably the most important strategic asset to a retreat there must be plans to protect and access remote water sources especially in the face of bandits who might attempt to monopolize this asset. Pre-crisis would also be a good time to secure and possibly purchase a clear legal share or long term lease to water rights on nearby properties. - David in Israel

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Monday October 12 2009

What Recovery? Find Yourself a Recoveryless Job

For more than a month, the mainstream media has been yammering about an economic recovery. Chasing phantom "good number" statistics amidst an onslaught of otherwise bad economic and global credit market news, the Wall Street cheering section is desperately seeking some news that the current recession is coming to an end. They talk about "the recovery in progress"--almost a fait accompli. They have been so good at this that they have fooled some investors into putting their sidelined money back into the stock market. What a masterpiece of disingenuous grandstanding. But the sad truth is that there is no genuine recovery in progress. Perhaps there will be a minor economic boost, generated by the huge bailout spending, but the bottom line is that we are in the midst of a major recession. And unlike the recessions in the past 50 years, this one is not based on just market cycles, but rather caused by a systemic failure of the global credit market. So any attempts to re-inflate the bubble with new credit (based on artificially low interest rates and bailout "programs") are bound to be unsuccessful. This recession cum depression won't end until malinvestment is driven out of the system, and trust in a fully transparent system of credit that backs genuine, truly marked-to-market tangible assets is restored.

America's debt bubble that emerged from over-inflated real estate is at the root of the current mess, just as it was in Japan in the 1980s. (In their case, it was commercial real estate, in parts of Tokyo.) The Japanese government has tried similar measures (mostly in the form of massive public works programs and artificially low interest rates) for 25 years, and they still haven't pulled out of their economic doldrums! But consider that our real estate bubble was much, much bigger, and that unlike Japan, we are a net-debtor nation. (Japan has traditionally been a fiscally-conservative nation of savers.) So how can we expect to do any better at "recovery" than they did?

The Obama administration has two potential courses of action that it can implement--through Treasury Department action, in concert with the Federal Reserve banking cartel's open market committee--to attempt to emerge from the current mess. Neither of these are appetizing:

Continue keep interest rates artificially low. This, however, will create a huge dollar carry trade market that will be the source of laughing derision, internationally. This course of action will eventually destroy the US Dollar as a currency unit.
Allow interest rates to rise, but that will likely choke off any economic growth. And regardless of the path chosen, the current administration (like its predecessor) seems committed to profligate spending on umpteen bailouts. These bailouts are funded by "out of thin air" dollars, creating massive budget deficits. In the long run, this dollar creation will prove to be highly inflationary. But there will probably be a time lag, since the effects of the continuing asset deflation is masking the ongoing currency inflation. I anticipate substantial inflation to become evident, circa 2011 and in subsequent years. It could be very nasty, so shelter yourself from it, as I've previously suggested in SurvivalBlog.

My suspicion is that the BHO administration will opt for the "weak dollar" route, since that will be the least painful of the two options. The sad news, however, is that ultimately neither option will solve the underlying problem, and hence the US economy is doomed to a deep 10+ year depression. During this period we will witness (and endure) massive unemployment, high crime, dislocation, rioting, repatriation restrictions, and substantially higher taxes. With these in mind, take the steps necessary to protect your family's safety, and your assets.

The talking heads on the finance and investing shows would have you believe that an economic recovery, or at least a "jobless recovery", is just around the corner. Do not be deceived. If any of you reading this are still under the deceptive spell of the CNBC rah-rahs and believe that recovery could be underway, then just take a look at this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets, which I've previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog. As you can see, the oft-cited peak in subprime mortgage interest rate resets is now behind us, but the peaks in Alt-A, and Option Adjustable (aka "Option ARM") rate resets are still ahead of us. Thus, in actuality, the worst is not yet over. We are just in a lull between two tsunami waves.

With the exception of a few newcomers, SurvivalBlog readers are already well-informed on the foregoing facts, so I won't belabor these points. Instead, I'll move on to some practical issues that will have some benefit to you. Lets talk about jobs, and to be more specific, your job.

A Recoveryless Job

Even if you are currently employed somewhere in a "safe and secure" job, keep in mind that there are no absolutes. You could have a small town civil service jo, for example at a water treatment plant. But what if the city or county that you work for goes bankrupt? You could be laid off in a heartbeat. The phrase "under new management" often means firing you, and hiring the nephew or old pal of the new boss. The fictional character Sarah Conner said it best: "No one is ever safe." So hedge your bets.

I recommend that you develop a second stream of income through self-employment. Typically this can be found in a moonlighting service job, or a home-based mail order business.

I've often encouraged even my rural consulting clients to develop a second income stream. Why is this important? "Living off the land"-style self sufficiently is an admirable and commendable goal. But even if you are living truly "debt free", you will still have property taxes to pay. That means that you will need a recession/depression proof revenue stream in the event that you lose your primary job.

Successful home-based businesses usually center around unfilled needs. Find something that your neighbors buy or rent, or service that they "hire" on a regular basis that currently requires a 40+ mile drive "to town". Those are your potential niches.

A successful recession-proof home-based business is likely to be one where the demand for your goods and services is consistent, even in a weak economy. These include septic tank pumping, home security/locksmithing, care for the very young and the very old, and escapist diversions such as DVD movie rentals. (It is noteworthy that the movie industry was was one of the few sectors of the economy that prospered in the 1930s.)

One market segment that prospered in the Great Depression of the 1930s was repair businesses. Obviously, in hard economic times, people try to make do with what they have. So repair businesses are a natural. If it is some small appliance that you could repair that could be mailed from and back to the customer, so much the better. (That way you could have a nationwide business, rather than just a local one.) This might include: DVD player repair, laptop computer repair, and so forth.

Its a Dirty Job, But Someone Has to Do It
If you want to work for someone else and have that be recession-proof, then consider the dirty jobs. These are some of the least likely to suffer a layoff. In Japan, these are called the ""Three-K" jobs: kitsui ("hard"), kitanai ("dirty") and kiken ("dangerous"). If you are willing to take on any of the Three K jobs, do cheerful and hard work, and have exemplary attendance, then you will likely have a job that will carry you all the way through a deep recession or even a depression. If times get truly Schumeresque and you get laid off, then please be willing to "think outside the box", and consider taking a Three K job. Some of these are low level city and county payroll jobs. And by low level, I mean things like sanitation worker, animal control officer, sewer technician, solid waste transfer station worker, highway maintenance worker, and so forth.

Think about it: A steady job beats no job. Don't let your family starve, or end up homeless. There is no shame in accepting good old-fashioned hard work. If you take a job that brings in only one half of your existing income, consider that you'll actually come out ahead of any of your contemporaries that are laid off more than half of each year. Further, you will have uninterrupted benefits, such as health insurance, that they will also lack. A menial and low-paying job is better than no job.

Some suggested employment possibilities:

1.) Mining and manufacturing processes that because of shipping expenses cannot be practicably be moved offshore. Coal mining is a good example.

2.) Service industry jobs that are essential and non-discretionary. Let me reduce this to a few key examples, so that you'll know what to avoid:

Essential and Non-Discretionary	Non-Essential and Discretionary
Mortician	Pilates Instructor
11B Infantryman	Hairdresser
Septic Tank Pumping Truck Driver	Manicurist

3.) Retail sales (face to face, or mail order) of crucial items.

4.) Retail sales (face to face, or mail order) of comfort items. In the midst of an economic depression, people will crave escape. Movie DVDs are a good example.

5.) Military service. Most people don't think of the armed forces as service industries, but that is essentially what they are, on a national scale. In the military you are sort of a security guard for the real Mall of America. Or think of it as a lead delivery service. My father was an Air Force instructor pilot, back in the days of T-33s. He summed up his service when he told me: "I was a glorified bus driver, burning up lots of Uncle Sam's jet fuel. I did a great job of defending miles and miles of cactus." Thirty years later, I served as an Army Intelligence officer. It was great fun at the time, but in essence, I was just a detective--or more precisely the manager of detectives--that worked for one of the world's biggest detective agencies.

6.) Repair work.

Be Flexible and Proactive

The coming years will be difficult ones, globally. If you are risk of a layoff, then hedge your bets by developing a second stream of income, now. And if you are laid off, do not hesitate. Do whatever it takes to find steady work, even if means moving, or taking a lower-paying job. Don't just wallow in self-pity and draw unemployment insurance. be proactive and do something!

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Saturday October 10 2009

Letter Re: Documentary Examines a Terrorist Nuke Scenario

Hello Jim,
The History Channel has aired a two-hour long documentary titled 'The Day After Disaster'.

It is a very detailed look at what they describe as our government's top terrorist concern - a 10 kiloton nuke being detonated at/near the Capitol Mall in Washington DC. [JWR Adds: A re-run of this show is scheduled for October 16th at 8 A.M. and 2 P.M.. Tape or Tivo it!]

One of the things that became very clear for me is that, should this event occur in DC or any of the handful of other 'primary target' cities mentioned, our entire country will immediately go into a lockdown that will make the 9/11 aftermath look like a timeout for a five year old. This lock down will mean the immediate grounding of all air traffic, as we saw on 9/11, but also the immediate suspension of all trucking, freight, and port activity. The government will be searching for additional nukes, and to determine how the weapon entered the country. While not stated in the Documentary, there will be no just-in-time deliveries for what could be weeks, and I assume that rationing will be the method of disbursement for a time after that. There is an implied expectation that Marshall Law will be instituted at a national level as well.

If your not ready, this is yet another reason to get ready. Long term larder, and keeping out of the way will make for a much less stressful life than those who stand there like deer in the headlights.

Thank you Jim for all that you do, our prayers are with you and your family. God Bless, - D. McD.

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Sunday October 4 2009

Travel Security, by CapnRick in Argentina (Part 2 of 2)

What Survival type Are You?
Survivors of violent events have been studied extensively. Their faith in God, family and friends seems to head the list of essentials for survival, and survivors were successful at “rewiring” their attitudes to adapt to harsh--even inhumane--circumstances. And, they survived, while many others failed to adjust and survive.

[I concur with the Glenn Beck and the Survivor's Club that] there are distinct personality types of survivors. These are as follows:

Fighter
Thinker
Realist
Connector
Believer

It is important that each reader think about and analyze their feelings about each of these approaches to survival, come up with their own definitions of what each type is like, decide which type each reader is, and start thinking about “what if...?” scenarios for their particular circumstances. If you think the unthinkable and devise plans to survive, then when the unthinkable occurs, you will make the correct choices automatically. This is important, because people have failed to survive because they refused to think about the unthinkable, and their brains froze, they acted thoughtlessly, or they reacted without thinking clearly through all the possible ramifications of their actions. Sounds like crisis government, no?

A Word About Martial Arts:
A surprise attacker with a knife in his hand coming from behind has the equivalent of a 900th degree black belt. Real world fights do not occur as they do in the dojo or boxing ring. Those who have as many knife scars as I have and are still walking around can attest to that.

Anyone with knife scars and bullet wound scars is not proud of their scars. They know that each scar is a visible reminder of a personal failure to avoid a life-threatening event. I acquired the knife scars on my arms as a dumb teenager living on the Texas border and getting caught in avoidable confrontations while being in places where I shouldn't have been, both in Texas and Mexico. As I got a bit smarter and more aware of my sometimes dangerous surroundings, I started getting knife scars on my legs... having learned that distance is the best defense with an over-medicated knife fighter. When I finally wised up and started avoiding bad places, I got fewer and fewer scars.

I have had no formal martial arts training except the small amount standard in armed forces boot camp. Those of you who are interested in martial arts, please be certain that you make a serious commitment to always stay in peak physical condition. If you cannot fight at full force for at least two minutes, then no amount of skills training is sufficient. It has been my experience that none but those dedicated to their physical conditioning can maintain an aggressive fight for two minutes. If you are proud of your elite status as King of the Dojo, check out the free video series on real-life street defense at AttackProof.

Terrorist Attack Concerns
The planning and execution of the attack on the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City illustrates the modus operandi utilized by terrorists that could be a threat to your safety. Consider how a vigilant person might have recognized indications of a threat, from this case study:

Phase 1: Broad Target Selection. During broad target selection, terrorists collect information on numerous targets to evaluate their potential in terms of symbolic value, casualties, infrastructure criticality, or public attention. Timothy McVeigh wanted to attack a symbol of the federal government, preferably the FBI, Drug Enforcement Administration, or Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. He identified possible targets such as individual federal employees, their families, and facilities in at least five states.

Phase 2: Intelligence Gathering and Surveillance. Vulnerable targets able to meet attack objectives are selected for additional intelligence gathering and surveillance. This effort may occur quickly or over years depending upon the target and planning information needed. Terrorists seek to gather detailed information on guard forces, physical layout, personnel routines, and standard operating procedures.
McVeigh performed initial surveillance of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, one of his potential targets. He noted the interstate highway allowed easy access and possible escape routes. He also observed indented curbs that permitted vehicles to be parked directly in front of the building.

Phase 3: Specific Target Selection. Specific targets are then identified for attack based on anticipated effects, publicity, consistency with overall objectives, and costs versus benefits of the attack.
Timothy McVeigh chose the Murrah Federal Building because he believed the Federal agencies represented there were responsible for the incident in Waco, Texas two years earlier. In addition, he assessed the facility as a "soft target," with a good chance of success at low risk. His intent was to kill Federal employees and thereby gain media attention.

Phase 4: Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning. Terrorists may conduct additional surveillance to confirm previous information and gain additional details. During this stage, terrorists will select the method of attack, obtain weapons and equipment, recruit specialized operatives, and design escape routes.
McVeigh recruited Terry Nichols and prepared for the Oklahoma City attack over a six-month period. He acquired materials for a 5,000-pound truck bomb through theft, use of false documents, and paying cash for items normally bought on credit. He also made several trips to the Murrah Federal Building to identify the exact place to park the truck and to select escape routes.

Phase 5: Rehearsals. Terrorists often rehearse the attack scenario to confirm planning assumptions, enhance tactics, and practice escape routes. They may also trigger an incident at the target site to test the reaction of security personnel and first responders. McVeigh practiced making and detonating bombs in isolated locations. He memorized details of the Murrah Building layout, finalized the sequence of actions for the attack, and practiced responses to law enforcement officers if they were encountered.

Phase 6: Actions on the Objective. Terrorists choose to execute attacks when conditions favor success with the lowest risk. Factors they consider include surprise, choice of time and place, use of diversionary tactics, and ways to impede response measures.
On 19 April 1995, McVeigh parked a rental truck – a 5,000-pound vehicle bomb – in front of the Murrah Federal Building where it could cause the most damage. The date of the bombing, 19 April, was symbolic – the second anniversary of the fire at the Branch Davidian church compound in Waco, Texas.

Phase 7: Escape and Exploitation. Unless an operation is a suicide attack, escape routes are carefully planned and rehearsed. Terrorists may exploit successful attacks by releasing pre-developed statements to the press.

After preparing the bomb for detonation, McVeigh walked away from the scene on a preselected route. To flee Oklahoma City, McVeigh used a get-away car pre-positioned before the attack.

McVeigh wanted the world to know that he attacked the Federal Murrah Building because he believed the Federal Government infringed on individual rights of Americans. McVeigh left a file on his sister's computer titled "ATF Read" echoing these sentiments. His get-away car contained anti-government literature and he subsequently made statements concerning his motivations for the attack.

Geographical Regions of Interest
Terrorists may focus on obvious foreign tourists, personnel associated with foreign firms, foreign military and foreign government organizations, and especially individuals who appear to be high-ranking or important. Try to blend in with the local population. When possible, avoid disclosing your country of origin, religious, business, military or government affiliation.

Do you think that you are safe , traveling in the U.S. or in western Europe? Consider this: Within the United States, several organizations and individuals used Terror/criminal tactics to achieve their goals. Other organizations provide direct and indirect assistance through fund-raising, recruiting, and training support.

Terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists against US interests and personnel began in 1978 with the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran. In my personal opinion, the US has been at war since that date. Foreign Terror attacks in the US began in 1968 with the hijacking of Pan Am flight 501 to Cuba, and in 1993 with the first attack against the World Trade Center in New York. More recently, the foiled Terror/criminal plot against Fort Dix, New Jersey demonstrates that Al-Qaeda cells still exist within the nation's borders.

Home-grown terrorism is a reality. During the 1960s and 1970s, the Weathermen and the Armed Forces for Puerto Rican National Liberation executed several small-scale terror/criminal attacks. More recently, violent elements include the anti-abortion Army of God, the eco-terrorist Earth Liberation Front, and other domestic anarchist groups and individuals. Homegrown terrorists have employed various tactics such as rudimentary letter bombs, improvised explosive devices, small arms attacks, and truck bombs. Bioterrorism is also a concern in view of the anonymous anthrax attacks in 2001.

For more information on events in North America, see historical examples on the Oklahoma City bombing, United Flight 93, and the plot to attack Fort Dix. There are serious threats now from MS13 and other Latino gangs, who work with Russian/Italian/Asian mobs, and other gangs. Also, note that the Mexican Cartels have turned the US border area into a war zone, per recent news items. It is reported that Phoenix, Arizona is now the kidnapping capitol of the US.

Islamic extremists pose the primary Terror/criminal threat to US military and government personnel. Since the mid-1990s, terrorists have enhanced their capabilities around the world... including Indonesia and the Pan-Pacific area, Venezuela, the tri-border area of Paraguay/Brazil/Bolivia and expanded their influence and presence into other parts of the world.

In the areas of current US military operations, roadside IEDs pose one of the greatest threats to US forces. Additionally, local political leaders and civilians, infrastructure, and international aid personnel are terrorized by suicide bombings, kidnappings, and murders. In many other parts of the Western Asian and African regions, suicide bombers and gunmen target hotels and tourist attractions to advance domestic political agendas.

Numerous Terror/criminal organizations operate in almost every region of the world. In addition to Al-Qaeda, other organizations include Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ansar al-Islam, and Mujahedine-e Khaiq, the Russian Mafia, etc.

For more information on events in this region, check the Internet for historical examples on the USS Cole, the Luxor Massacre at Deir el-Bahri, and Khobar Towers.

European Union
This region is diverse and contains a wide spectrum of terror/criminal threats. Threats include traditional nationalist, ethnic, and leftist Terror/criminal groups such as the Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA), November 17, and the Real Irish Republican Army. The region is also threatened by Islamic extremists such as Al-Qaeda and Ansar al-Islam. Chechen rebels, responsible for several Terror/criminal attacks within the former Soviet Union, are both Muslim radicals and separatists. There is a lot of Mafia related activity.

In recent years, US allies in Europe have suffered dramatic Terror attacks. Terrorists have targeted civilians with IEDs and suicide bombers for maximum impact on government policies and elections. US military forces have also come under direct attack by organizations wishing to diminish America's influence in the area.

Additionally, organizations sympathetic to Terrorist/religious radical objectives actively raise funds, recruit, and provide other support to religious extremist groups. As seen in the events of 9/11, western Europe can be a staging area for attacks against the United States.

For more information, see the historical case studies for the London and Madrid subway bombings, the bombing of the La Belle Discotheque, and other attacks.

Africa
Stability in the region is threatened by nationalist, tribal, and ethnic groups that use Terror/criminal and pirate tactics to support their agendas. The region is also threatened by Islamic extremists such as Al-Qaeda, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, and Al Shabaab.

The 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania illustrate the willingness of terrorists to use indiscriminate violence to attack foreign interests in Africa. Additionally, local ethnic and nationalist-based conflicts increasingly threaten foreign corporate infrastructure and personnel.

Terrorist organizations also engage in support activities within the African continent. These include fund raising, training, recruiting, operation of front activities, and involvement in criminal enterprises. Africa has the potential to be a significant transit point and support base for Terror/criminal operations in other parts of the world.

For more information, see Internet sources on the African embassy bombings.

Pacific Rim/Southeast Asia
Narco/criminal groups in this region present diverse threats to foreign interests. Some specifically target foreigners and others target public sites where foreigners may become victims. Additionally, there is evidence of ties between groups in the Pacific/SE Asia region and Al-Qaeda and other international groups.

Terrorist attacks in this region demonstrate a broad spectrum of tactics. These include kidnappings, suicide bombings, and even chemical attacks. Aleph, formerly known as Aum Shinrikyo, attacked Tokyo subways with Sarin nerve gas and cyanide in 1995. Abu Sayyaf, a Philippine group seeking to create a radical Muslim state, targets foreigners for kidnapping.

Terrorists have targeted foreign assets in the region. In 2001, Singaporean officials foiled a plot to attack US military forces and western diplomatic missions. The group, Jamaah Islamiya, seeks to create a radical Muslim state across South East Asia. In 2002 it conducted a suicide bombing of a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia to kill western tourists.

For more information on events in this region, seek Internet sources on the Bali Nightclub Bombing and Tokyo Subway Attack.

Latin America
The primary/criminal threat in the area is NarcoTerrorism and the continued operation of radical leftist groups. Additionally, the ties between NarcoTerrorists and radical extremists from the Middle East are reportedly increasing. It is possible Latin American countries, notably Venezuela and Argentina may become a transit point for terrorists from other parts of the world to enter the United States via Mexico and Europe via Africa. I have read accounts of Colombian NarcoTerrorists and known radical Islamics being arrested in Mexico and Spain with genuine Venezuelan passports and personal documents when said individuals are known to have never lived in Venezuela. There was one report of a US Border Patrol intercept on the US/Mexican border of some Cubans and a different party of 15+ persons of Arab descent all carrying genuine Venezuelan passports and documents. You should probably take that information as indicating that Venezuela is not friendly to US/ European Common Market interests.

Unlike the 1980s, recent attacks against US interests are focused primarily on businesses and not US military or government assets. In addition to bombings and arson, Terror/criminal tactics include targeted assassinations and kidnapping, especially against foreign-owned commercial assets.

Some of the most prominent Terror/criminal organizations within the Latin American region include the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Colombian National Liberation Army (ELN), and the Shining Path ["Sendero Luminoso"] in Peru. Various Internet sources are available.

A few words about the Mumbai attacks: The FBI reports are trickling back from the agents dispatched there to cooperate with Indian authorities, and the results are depressing. It appears more and more certain that various Pakistani high-level authorities were aware of the activities of the attackers and their support team in Pakistan. An incident of this sort could easily be the start of a war between these two nuclear powers.

But, take a moment to think of the businessmen and their families that were at their hotel having a nice dinner and deep into their cozy world, when the unthinkable happened. I hope each and every reader of this report will resolve to include a special Survival bag in their luggage to include packaged ready-to-eat food. I use Wal-Mart granola bars, peanut butter and crackers, and so forth. MREs, if space is available. You should also have lots of spare batteries, a flashlight, et cetera. I use a head-band light, a bottle for water, a fire-starter kit (cotton balls soaked in vaseline with a spark striker and a Bic disposable lighter).

Want more ideas? Research the web for what others have assembled as Every Day Carry (EDC) survival bags on the web. If you want to read how life is affected by a total societal meltdown, read the blog by FerFAL, a student of architecture during the 2001 financial meltdown in Argentina. I especially liked the info on his family's ideas of what they would have done differently given the chance, the items that became most important to them, and some gimmicks that helped them keep a good survival attitude.

In closing: the most important thing is to maintain a positive and happy attitude while preparing for the unthinkable.

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Saturday October 3 2009

Travel Security, by CapnRick in Argentina (Part 1 of 2)

The following recommendations are a result of my travel throughout the world on business for 20+ years. These observations are offered as a helpful supplement to other sources on the web dealing with personal security issues while traveling. My apologies to those who do not find these observations pertinent to their particular situation. Allow me to say that these suggestions are offered freely and without restriction so they may be passed around with no obligation. Very little of this information is original to me, and I apologize if anyone has written anything similar. Also, I am not a security professional and make no claims of expertise. This stuff works for me, but each reader's mileage may vary. Some of my ideas might actually get people in trouble with the authorities and/or cause physical harm. Please read this with an open mind and a critical eye. Comments are appreciated at travel@ricdav.com.

Lots of US Embassy staff, host country Federal Police and Army staff gave me input, horror stories and advice regarding personal safety issues while I was visiting and working in overseas markets. These were Latin America, but including trips to Western European and Pacific Rim countries. I also have input from international and US expatriates living and working there. I know that many people have a lot of experience in many different countries, and may honestly laugh at all these ideas and issues presented here as stupid and alarmist. How you take it is your business. It is submitted in serious concern for the safety of all international travelers.

It was necessary for me to learn this stuff because I have lived and worked outside the US most of my life. I first traveled internationally in the 1960s and retired in 2005 to live in Argentina. I hope you can understand that the world in post 9-11 has really changed. Radicals of the right, the left and the lunatic religious extreme and NarcoTerrorists all celebrated when the twin towers went down. You should also be aware that even pre 9-11, international travel was seriously more dangerous than it was in the 1960s. Now, bad guys all over the world have become more encouraged by their perception that bad guys can get away with bad stuff... hence, have become more aggressive.

This article contains various types of info, including some info that may not be of interest to all travelers. I hope you will find some of the following items of interest including...

Things you may do to prepare yourself for the unfamiliar security issues in unfamiliar territory.
Questions you may be asking and factors that may be considered based upon the situation in your area of destination.
Items for which you may be alert that may indicate possible threats to your person or valuables.
Travel Tips which include how to research the area, sources of information, planning ahead, blending in to your surroundings for safety, etc.
Dressing for success. How to maintain an edge in your favor in dangerous areas. Potential weapons/tools to aid in your security efforts.
Dealing with the stress of being a victim
Dealing with Terror concerns, broken down by world areas.

Try to familiarize yourself with the area you plan to visit. There are various aggregators of news that allow one to program their search “bots” to look for keywords involving your area of interest. I use Yahoo News, Dogpile News Search element and some others. I also look for the local news sources for the area in question on the web. Here are some questions you should consider when seeking information about your geographical area of interest.

Are terrorist/organized criminal groups currently active in the area?
Do they aggressively attack visiting foreigners? Or, is it more local-on-local crime?
How active are they? How violent have they proven to be within the last 4 – 12 months?
How sophisticated are they? Do they use military weapons and tactics?
Are they predictable? Can you expect to be safer by staying out of known areas of operation?
Will local citizens warn visiting foreigners? Do you have local contacts who can advise you?

Groups and individuals have demonstrated their willingness to employ terrorist/criminal tactics to further their agendas. While some threats have a regional focus, others have become international and affect multiple areas. Foreign visitors, military and diplomatic staff are seriously targeted in virtually every region of the world.

ALWAYS PLAY THE “WHAT IF... ?” SCENARIO GAME

Consider ways you might become a victim of a criminal/NarcoTerrorist attack. Several factors to keep in mind include:

Location: Local terrorists may target locations frequented by foreigners or foreign military personnel such as certain hotels, apartment buildings, public transportation centers, and nightclubs. Avoid possible target locations. They often use the employees of foreigner frequented establishments, taxi drivers, airport staff (especially banking/money changing establishment personnel) and adult entertainment workers as associates or sources of information about possible lucrative targets.

Opportunity: Terrorists and criminals look for "soft targets"... so, learn to avoid appearing so. It is difficult to over stress the need to maintain vigilance, practice good personal safety, and to alert the proper authorities of suspicious behavior. If you find yourself unable to avoid being outdoors at night, try to walk down the middle of the street (not always possible). Be especially watchful if passing a large van or a vehicle with people in it, courtyards and deep doorways near your path. Walk purposefully with strong, determined strides... shoulders back, head erect, head and eyes constantly moving. Use windows/mirrors near the street to check your surroundings. Under no circumstances allow anyone to engage you in conversation at this time. Criminals will try to slow you down while their helpers get into position to assault you. Keep moving, speak into your cell phone as if carrying on a conversation... preferably in a language you think the 3333possible attackers don't know.
To attack you, terrorists generally must perceive you, your association, or your location as a target. Put serious thought on the subject of how to avoid appearing to be an easy target.

Be alert for how criminals/NarcoTerrorists prepare and conduct attacks through predictable steps. Through vigilance, you might be able to recognize preparations for an attack before it is executed. Be alert to unusual behavior that may indicate intelligence gathering, surveillance, collecting materials for attack, dry runs, and rehearsals. For example:

Taking photos or videos of potential targets
Writing notes or sketching details about a possible target
Showing abnormal attention to details of routine activities and security measures
Using false identification
Paying cash for items normally bought on credit
Purchasing large quantities of items that could be used as part of an attack (e.g., chemicals or cell phones)

If you see something unusual, report it immediately to security officials for further investigation. Make a note of the individual's description and activities, the time of day, and equipment being used.

TRAVEL TIPS

Terrorist/criminal attacks at the Spanish/English/Japanese rail systems, Mexican border towns, Bali, Indonesia, Luxor, Egypt, London, England, and other tourist locations signal an increased threat to foreign travelers.

While visiting a new location, it is natural to tour local sites of interest. While sightseeing, you should keep good anti-crime/antiterrorism practices in mind.

Plan Ahead

Research any known potential threats in the area. If the threat is elevated, take extra precautions or postpone your activities.
Plan activities and a route that includes safe locations. Keep thinking, “What if...”
Ask a friend or coworker to join you – small groups are usually safer than individuals.

If sightseeing with others, pre-designate a location to meet at if separated during an emergency. Make sure someone knows your itinerary (acquaintances, business contacts, hotel staff?) and what time you may be returning.

Blend in to Your Surroundings

Conceal your national/business/religious affiliation and try to blend in with other people on the street. USA red white and blue t-shirts, soccer/baseball logo clothing and religious jewelry are overly conspicuous in many instances. Observe and conform to local culture. Activities such as public displays of affection, drinking alcohol, or wearing shorts or skirts may be inappropriate.

Do not bring undue attention to yourself. Avoid loud or boisterous behavior. Walking the streets at night in an inebriated state in very dangerous in many locations.

Taxis: Try to never travel alone in a taxi. Try to never take a taxi off the street. Try to always have a taxi company's business card in your pocket and call or have someone call the cab for you. If not, a taxicab stand is the next best solution. Even US embassy marines have to take these precautions, and we know they're in good shape... pretty tough in a fight. They are also excellent sources of good local information. Unfortunately, one of the thriving businesses in criminal/NarcoTerror Land is to pick up a rich guy (you) off the street in a taxi, and around the corner are two additional thugs with guns who escort you to a quiet place, strip the rich guy, take his luggage, etc. If a VISA or debit card is found, they will escort you to an ATM and make you withdraw the daily limit before they strip you naked and leave you on the side of the road. Unless they are impressed with what they find among your effects, Then the thugs may decide it's worth a try to sell you to the NarcoTerrorists (drug traffickers). They may ask for US$5,000 - US$15,000, knowing the NarcoTerrorists' usual minimum demand for ransom is US$250,000. Then, you may spend the next several years of your life chained to a tree in the jungle swatting mosquitoes and eating undercooked beans.
If you or your taxi driver notices a suspicious vehicle or two in the vicinity, consider asking the taxi driver to take you to the nearest police station... or high traffic area.
If you must drive a vehicle and your budget does not include an armored vehicle with “run-flat” tires preceded by a “chase” car and a following “blocker” van full of armed bodyguards, then try to rent/select an 4-wheel drive vehicle with high ground clearance. A heavy-duty bumper is a good idea for running through barricades. If you see a police roadblock manned by only one or two officers and one (or NO) clearly official vehicle, consider running the roadblock or going around it. You may prefer to reverse out of the area quickly to a place where you can turn around and leave the area. If it is really a fake-cop scam (or, off-duty/retired cops pulling a scam), you should be okay. You may really need a heavy duty vehicle for this maneuver. If is a legitimate control point/official police roadblock and they catch you, humbly and very politely explain that you are sorry and will never do it again, but a friend of yours warned against false roadblocks by criminals/NarcoTerrorists. All around the world, official roadblocks usually have many, many clearly marked police vehicles and uniformed/heavily armed officers. Don't forget that NarcoTerrorists have Police uniforms and equipment, too... but, usually not too many official vehicles.
If you happen to be driving down a street and one or more people run out in front of the car in an attempt to stop you, Do not hesitate to slam down the accelerator as if you are trying to hit them. They will get out of the way.
If you are in a known area for auto-related crime and someone rear-ends your vehicle as if on purpose, consider leaving the scene as rapidly as possible. This is a serious “What if... ?” scenario.
In many countries, police understand if you slow down but fail to stop at traffic lights and stop signs after dark because it is known to be too dangerous at night.
Be aware that motorcycles and scooters are not always a good idea if you have to try to escape while someone is shooting at you. Car sheet metal isn't much, but every little bit helps.
ATMs: Try to only go to an ATM in the daytime anywhere in the world. Even in the US. Also, pay attention to who is in the area before, during and after getting your money. Situational awareness is difficult when you're trying to get the pesky machine to work... so, consider not going to an ATM alone.
Buses: Until 1995, I always felt safe taking the bus. I would still take the Nuevo Laredo - Monterrey bus, but probably think twice about taking one in the Juarez/Chihuaua or Sinaloa state areas. Why? The various Colombian and Mexican NarcoTerror groups stop buses full of people as bait to get the rescuing government forces to move into kill zones where improvised explosive devices (IEDs) take them out. I have seen the results first hand, and seeing where 40+ teenage army guys got brutally cut to pieces by home-made bombs will mess up your whole life.

If you happen to be one of the poor guys shivering naked on the side of the road with 20-30 others watching the NarcoTraficantes molest the women passengers, understand that you will spend the next several years of your life eating beans in the jungle. Poor folks get to go home, except for the young and pretty girls and teenage boys they want to draft for paramilitary service for the NarcoTraficantes .

The NarcoTraficantes are studying in the same Islamic extremist terror schools as Al Qaeda, and Colombian/Mexican NarcoTraficantes' IEDs are really starting to show up a lot more... in recent cases, bait and blast techniques were used in the south of Mexico to kill lots of soldiers and Federal Police.

At an outdoor table of any restaurant, don't leave your phone, camera, purse or any other valuables in plain sight or within reach of the walking public. Try to sit as far from vehicular/pedestrian traffic as possible. As always, play the “What if... ? Game” and remain alert to your surroundings. Jenna Bush's purse was jacked in full daylight in Buenos Aires,when she was surrounded by agents.

When leaving a high-end location, such as an electronics store, Armani, etc, an expensive restaurant or nice hotel, you may have just identified yourself as a potential high-end target. If you are carrying packages, and you put them into an automobile, please try to secure the items in the trunk or a lockable compartment and be aware that you will possibly be followed by thugs with evil intent to your next location. If you are in a Range Rover or Cadillac Esplanade, you should understand that you are in a rolling high-value target, with little or no inside secure storage. If you stop and leave the vehicle in any unsecured location after being seen exiting a high-end location, don't be too surprised if you come back later to find the locks broken or the vehicle stolen.

A wallet is a liability, and I never carry one. I wear a slim, zippered pouch between my T-shirt and external shirt/sweater for credit cards, driving license and copies (not originals) of my passport, birth certificate, travel or residency documents. Sometimes, I prefer a photographer's vest with lots of internal/external zippered or Velcro pockets. This vest can contain as much as a small suitcase... currently, about four kilos of stuff. Fanny packs are less secure, so I usually just put reading material, inexpensive sunglasses, gum, etc in them. Cameras/GPSs and other high-end items are secured in Velcro pockets in the vest or coat pocket. As a side note, I have copied and reduced in size all my important documents for daily carry and emailed these [scanned] copies [as PDFs] to several of my web-based e-mail accounts so I can replace them at any time from any internet/print location.

The amount of cash I carry is as small as possible. I keep large denomination bills in a money clip in the bottom of one front pocket with a handkerchief crushed down on top of it. The handkerchief is super important, because the pickpocket has to go around it to get to the real goodies. Another money clip contains the daily allotment of small bills is in another front pocket, so I don't have to flash large bills for most purchases. It is also crammed down in the bottom of the front pocket with another handkerchief crammed on top of it. The bulk of my funds, original passport and other documents, valuables, etc are kept in a Wal-Mart small combination safe that fits in my luggage, which I check in at the front office safe at the hotel when traveling. Note that I do not agree with several recommendations that a “decoy wallet” stuffed with paper be carried to toss away so as to distract attackers. I prefer throwing my decoy stash of small denomination bills to scatter everywhere as a more time consuming distraction for a better chance of escape.

Luggage Security
Most complaints regarding theft, damage or loss involves the contents of luggage. Savvy travelers will make a written inventory of items in their luggage and photograph it in case of loss. Carry important items like medication, eyeglasses, and expensive jewelry in your hand luggage, a traveler's vest like photographers use to carry their small equipment items, etc. My vest holds up to 8 kilos of goodies. Photocopy the contents of your wallet and your passport. Carry a copy in your hand luggage and leave one at home as back up. Keep luggage under your control until you check in at your destination. Consider traveling with sturdy plain-looking luggage. Expensive looking luggage may be targeted for its perceived contents. External bag tags should not list your full home address and telephone number. I put my cell phone number, my phone number and email address on my tags. I do not put my name or any affiliations on bag tags. Consider defacing your beautiful luggage with big bands of tape all around the outside, laterally, with your phone numbers, email, etc in case of loss.

Consider durable luggage that is capable of being locked or secured and that will withstand being at the bottom of a pile of hundreds of other pieces of luggage without popping open. It is a good idea to add extra banding... $5 for a wide nylon strap with side snap locks at Wal-Mart... or airport plastic wrap or duct tape to your luggage locks to prevent anyone from opening your luggage without detection. When flying, I do not lock my bags so inspectors do not break the locks. I use self-locking plastic tie-wraps. They work well for securing my luggage. All airport inspectors have replacements if they have to cut your ties to inspect your bags. You can buy these at any home improvement store for about a dollar. The reason for this is that smugglers have been known to slip drugs/weapons, etc into luggage only to retrieve it later and maybe with force. Passengers have unknowingly transported illegal substances/firearms that were slipped into their suitcase by baggage handlers only to be arrested later by authorities. What explanation you would give to prove your innocence to a foreign government of why you are carrying drugs or guns? If your luggage was properly sealed, you should see if it has been tampered with prior to opening it. Report any luggage tampering immediately to security before opening the case.

Luggage locks: If there is a combination lock on the bag, I put a piece of tape on the bag under the lock with the combo... usually, 0-0-0. This is because my bag was seriously harmed by customs forcing the bag open even though it as unlocked. A sign of the times, no?

Airplane security: Beyond the obvious precautions, I would suggest trying to reserve a window seat as close to the middle of the cabin as possible. The rear and front of each cabin is where the bad guys congregate to watch over the victims. Consider what you can do to avoid being obvious about your business/military/nationality/religious affiliations.

Cruise Ship Security

Cruise ships are like a small city where passengers are encouraged to forget their troubles and relax once onboard ship. It is natural for passengers on vacation to let their guard down, especially when out to sea in a resort-like setting. Try to not let a false sense of security aboard a cruise ruin your vacation by becoming a crime victim. Before you ship out, consider taking some of these preventative steps:

After you enter your cabin, and while the door is still open, always check inside the bathroom or closest before sitting down inside. Don’t assume that your cabin is as secure as a hotel. Many people have keys to your cabin and your cabin door may be left standing open for hours while the cleaning crews or cabin steward services the room. Cabin doors locks are sometimes horribly outdated and are not re-keyed as frequently as hotel rooms. Obviously, don’t leave valuable items lying around. It is a good idea to have inventoried your luggage and photographed expensive items at home, and even emailed the info to your web email account for easy retrieval anywhere before you packed them at home in case of loss. Since most ship passengers are set up on a charge account system, be sure to use the ship safe deposit box for storage of valuable items, papers, credit cards or extra cash. Use all locks on the cabin door including the night latch. Consider carrying a hardware store door stop in your luggage and deploying it for extra security of the closed door while in the cabin. Some are available with alarms from web suppliers. Don’t open your cabin door to strangers. Whatever the person wants can be expressed from the other side of the closed and locked door. Be sure to teach children about this important procedure.

Just like in a hotel, protect your cabin key and cabin number. Dishonest crew or passengers will look for the opportunity to snatch a loose key or one that is left unattended. When in port, be sure to leave your key with the registration desk before disembarking.

Remember the phony hairspray/deodorant can safe if small items need to be secured and no safe is available. Once on board and out to sea, don’t assume that you are totally safe from criminal acts. While there is little danger of an outside predator robbing or attacking you on a cruise ship, crimes can just as easily be committed by crew members or by fellow passengers. Many cruise lines hire transient and seasonal employees at low wages. Because of this, turnover is high and cruise lines struggle to keep a ship fully staffed. While most crew members are hardworking and honest people, you cannot assume that the ship has properly screened that nice cabin attendant, waiter or below deck crew.. Consider a Family Security Plan: If you bring your children aboard, be sure to establish family rules in advance. Set curfews and restrictions...just like at home. Teenagers especially should be told never to accompany crew members into non-public areas nor should crew members be allowed inside your cabin. Being at sea can cause a false sense of security. Even though the crime incident rate per thousand is relatively low, there can still be predators on board. Ship nightclubs, casinos, swimming pools and Jacuzzis are favorite spots for those looking for a victim.

You also need to keep your guard up with intoxicated passengers. Food and liquor consumption peaks on board ships and cause bring out the worst in some people not used to it. Just because passengers are dressed up, doesn’t mean they will act appropriately or not be overly aggressive. It is not unheard of for a ship passenger to slip a drug into your drink and take advantage of you just like on shore. There are pickpockets, purse thieves, and cabin burglars on board waiting for you to let your guard down or become careless. There are also scam artists who seek and prey on rich vacationers if given the chance.
Your family security plan for children might include bed checks, curfews, restrictions, and special meeting places. Beware of which children they hang out with, just like at home. Your children can be exposed to other children who use drugs or like to get into mischief, just like at home. Try to limit your child to ship sponsored activities in public areas. You should make contact with your children periodically even if they are supervised. Giving them the run of the ship while you are otherwise engaged is not a good idea. Always have a backup plan and identify a ship crew member as a contact person in case your child fails to show up or you get separated at a port. Make certain that the kids understand there is nothing you can do to retrieve a kid from the police if they are caught in a foreign country with contraband.

You are not in Kansas anymore. Although you boarded a ship in a US port doesn’t mean that you are protected by the US justice system. Most ships are registered in non-US countries and travel in territorial waters where US laws might not apply. The cruise industry does not report crime data consistently, if at all, to the FBI or have a database of ships with the most crime problems. Shipboard crimes sometimes fall into a "no man's land" of law enforcement. A crime can occur between two people of different nationalities, on a ship from a third country, and in the territorial waters of a fourth country. The governing law is the International Maritime Law and is not as well developed as US law. Reporting a crime on board a cruise ship doesn't mean anything will be done or that the crime will ever be investigated. The FBI is the only US law enforcement agency that can investigate a major crime but only if it occurs in International waters, otherwise crimes are reported to the jurisdiction of the closest foreign country and to the embassies of the parties involved. Prosecution of crime, in many cases, will be left in the hands of the local port authority where no one can predict the outcome.

Be aware that if you or your family member gets into trouble on board a ship or in a port, you may be held accountable to the laws of a foreign country. The thing to do is to stay alert, be cautious, and stay safe while at sea. For details on the safety record of your cruise ship or how your ship will handle problems such are lost luggage or crime acts, contact the cruise line directly and ask for written disclosure of their policies and regulations. You can also contact the Cruise Lines International Association in New York City who represents the twenty five largest cruise lines for more information.

Security in a Hotel
Most hotels are protected by the individual country's innkeeper laws. In most cases, these laws clearly state that the hotel is not responsible for theft from your room... including the convenient room safe. If you are in a rented apartment for a longer stay, you are entirely unprotected against loss. Some travelers are hiding small, high-value items, money, etc in the small “diversion safe”. This is a common item such as a large can of aerosol deodorant that is really an empty can with a removable screw-off lid. Be sure to stuff a hand towel or handkerchief, wad of paper, etc on top to prevent rattling of the items in the can. I recommend using the front desk lock box when possible, thereby making the hotel responsible in most places.
Upper floors are safer from crime, but worse for fire rescue. Emergency rescue is best below the fifth floor. I compromise by picking a modern fire-safe hotel and always request a room on an upper floor to reduce crime exposure. Ground floor rooms are more vulnerable to crime problems because of access and ease of escape. In a high-rise building, rooms above the fifth-floor are usually safer from crime than those below because of lesser accessibility and ease of escape. Also, rooms not adjacent to fire stairs are safer from room invaders because they use them for escape. Criminals do not want to be trapped on an upper floor inside a high-rise hotel. By design, high-rise buildings usually have fewer ground level access points and are easier for the hotel staff to monitor who passes through the access points after hours.

Door Security Hardware

Hotel or motel rooms should be equipped with a solid-core wood or metal door for best protection. Doors should be self-closing and self-locking. Room doors should have a deadbolt lock with at least a one-inch throw bolt. If the lock appears worn or there are pry marks around the lock area, get another room or move to another hotel. The knob-lock should be hotel-style where you can push a button on the inside knob and block out all keys. This feature is designed to prevent a former guest or housekeeper from entering the room once you are safely inside. Hotels with electronic card access have the advantage of being able to disable former key cards issued to previous guests and unauthorized employees. Electronic locks also will block out most room service keys when you set the deadbolt. The room door should have a wide-angle peephole so you can view who is at the door before opening.

Access Control

Do not open your door to someone who knocks unannounced. Some criminals will pretend to be a bellman, room service, maintenance, or even hotel security to gain admittance to your room. Always call the front desk to confirm their status with the hotel and only open the door if you requested the service. Do not rely on door chains or swing bars to secure the doors while you partially open the door to speak someone. These are unreliable security devices. Teach your children not to open the door of any hotel room without knowing the person on the other side and without your permission.
Other Entry Points

Make sure all windows and sliding doors are secured, if they are accessible from the ground. It is a good idea to test all windows and glass doors to see if they are secure. Beware of balconies where someone can climb from one to another and enter through an open window or sliding door. If the windows or sliding doors are not securable, ask for another room or find another hotel. If your room has an adjoining door to an adjacent room, check it to see that it is secured with a deadbolt lock. If it is questionable, ask for another room.

Beware the Parking Lot

If you are a woman traveling alone or with small children, take advantage of car valet service, if available to avoid the parking lot. After checking-in, ask the bellman or desk clerk to escort you to your room. After unlocking the room, quickly inspect the closets, under the bed, and bathroom including behind the shower curtain before the bellman leaves. Tip the bellman for his efforts.

Occupancy Cues

Put the Do-Not-Disturb sign on the doorknob even when you are away, this deters room burglars (it may affect housekeeping service, however). Turn on the television or radio just loud enough to hear through the door to give the appearance that the room is occupied. Leave one light on inside the room if you will return after dark. This helps you see upon re-entry and gives the room the appearance of occupancy from the outside. Always go through the same room inspection routine every time you re-enter. People traveling alone should use caution when using the breakfast order door-knob hanger card, especially if the card lists your name and number of persons in the room. A smart crook can knock on the door posing as room service and use your name as a ruse to gain entry.

When you find a suitable hotel that meets your safety standards and will cater to your security needs try to stick with it or with the same hotel chain. Don't be afraid to complain to management to get the safe room you deserve.

Consider requesting a room on an upper floor, if possible.
A solid door with a good deadbolt lock is best.
Electronic card access locks help limit access.
Make sure your door has a peephole and night latch and use it.
Turn on the TV or radio just loud enough to hear through the door.
Turn on a single light in the room if you plan to return after dark.
Inspect the room hiding places upon entering and check all locks.
Ask the bellman for an escort and use valet parking if alone

Hotel Room Invasions
One of the more frightening and potentially dangerous crimes that can occur to a family or business traveler is a hotel room invasion robbery. A hotel room invasion occurs when robbers force their way into an occupied hotel or motel room to commit a robbery or other crimes. It is frightening because it violates our private space and the one place that acts as our temporary sanctuary while away from home. Some travelers never recover from the experience of being assaulted while in a hotel room in a strange city.

Like the crime of carjacking, most police agencies don’t track home or hotel room invasions as a separate crime. Most police agencies and the FBI will statistically record the crime as a residential burglary or a robbery. Without the ability to track the specific crime of hotel room invasion, little can be done to alert the public as to the frequency of occurrence or devise a law enforcement plan of action to prevent it.

How Invasions are Carried Out
Hotel burglars work mostly during the day and when a room is more likely to be unoccupied. Most burglars work alone, or with hotel staff informants and tend to probe a hotel looking for the right room and the right opportunity. Access control systems, good building design, strong locks and doors, and alert hotel staff can often deter burglars. Also, burglars don’t want to be confronted and will usually flee when approached. Most burglaries do not result in violence unless the criminal is cornered and uses force to escape.

Hotel room invasion robbers, in contrast, work more often at night when rooms are more likely to be occupied and less staff is on duty. The hotel room invaders usually target the occupant and room location and not necessarily the hotel. The selection process may include women traveling alone or senior citizens, or known drug dealers, or wealthy travelers, for example. It is not unusual for a robber to follow the victim to their hotel room based on the value of the car they were driving or the jewelry or clothes they were wearing... even being seen exiting a high-end retail establishment or restaurant can cause one to be targeted and followed. Hotel room invaders have been known to work casinos and watch for guests flashing large sums of money or jewelry. Hotel room invaders usually work alone or with just one accomplice and they rely on an overwhelming physical confrontation to gain control and instill fear in the room occupants.

The violence occurs instantly with an overwhelming explosive force to take control of the room. The hotel room invaders often come equipped with handcuffs, rope, tape, and weapons. Some hotel room robbers appear to enjoy the intimidation, domination, and violence and some claim it is a "rush." Some hotel robbers are also opportunist rapist and may sexually assault their victims.

Dangerous Trends
The act of committing a hotel room invasion is escalating much like carjacking. The reason for the increase seems to follow a similar pattern. Much like automobiles, the traditional commercial targets for robbers have hardened themselves against criminal attack. Technology has allowed commercial establishments to install better locks, and other anti-crime deterrent devices.
Guest room robbers have privacy once inside and don’t have to deal with security or hotel staff or other guests who might suddenly appear. Once the offenders take control of a guest room, they can force the occupants to open room safes, locate hidden valuables, supply keys to the car, and PIN numbers to their ATM cards. Guest room robbers will increase their escape time by disabling the phones and sometimes leave their victims bound or incapacitated. It is not unheard of for robbers to load up the victim’s car with valuables and drive away without anyone in the hotel taking notice.
Method of Operation: The most common point of attack is through the guest room door or patio door. Sometimes the hotel room invader will simply kick open the door and confront everyone inside. More common is when the hotel room invaders knock on the door first. The room invader hopes that the occupant will simply open the door, without question, in response to their knock. Unfortunately, many people do just that.

Guest room robbers will sometimes use a ruse or impersonation to get you to open the door. They have been known to pretend to be room service, housekeeping, security, or delivering flowers. Clever room robbers might hold a room service tray or flowers in view of the peephole to further the impersonation. Once the door is opened for them, the hotel room invaders will use an explosive amount of force and threats to gain control of the room and produce fear in the victims. Once the occupants are under control, the robbers will begin to collect your portable valuables.

Another tactic is for a robber to select a victim in the lobby and ride up in the elevator with them. They will get off on the same floor and pretend walk behind you as if going to their room. This means you need to return to the elevator and return to the lobby. Once the guest opens their door, the robber will force his way in behind them and make his demand.

Weapons: A Slight Edge

If you habitually carry a firearm, you tend to feel naked without one on your person while in unfamiliar circumstances. Except for active duty military or law enforcement, it is difficult to get the paperwork necessary to legally carry a firearm in a foreign country. Carrying an illegal firearm is a really, really bad idea in an unfamiliar country. Severe penalties, up to and including the death penalty, ensue if caught at it. While Mexico is currently a more dangerous place that either Iraq or Afghanistan, please understand that if NarcoTerrorists get their hands on you, you will be faced with 15 – 20 guys with AKs and M4s. Your measly popgun will just be added to their collection. Going about unarmed in potentially dangerous territory means that situational awareness and “What if...?” scenario planning are not optional.

My favorite defense tools include a stun gun, and a metal extendable police baton, camouflaged with a small flashlight replacement for the end ferrule. It looks like a typical metal body flashlight, and the police don't question it. Both the flashlight extension and the baton were purchased for less than USD40 on eBay. For less than USD40 I bought a stun gun with a personal alarm and a flashlight as well as 100v stun buttons on top all included on a unit camouflaged as a cell phone. This is great... though, it will not pass close inspection as a cell phone. What is really good about it is the Argentine thieves usually demand your cell phone and your money, giving no alerts as you reach toward him with a cell phone stun gun. Also, it is very useful in a dark, dangerous area to have it up to your face pretending to talk on it so deployment is almost instantaneous. In less dangerous environments, it rides quite openly and comfortably in a cell phone carrier on my belt. Neither of these items pass airport security inspection for carrying on one's person or carry-on luggage. Checked luggage should be okay. You stand a very good chance to be arrested if you forget. I forgot once, and was able to talk my way out of getting arrested after surrendering my extendable baton.

One should be able to get by with taking a ground-down razor sharp screwdriver and/or a multi-tool with a knife blade inside checked luggage. These are handy to carry while in unfamiliar surroundings. I put a plastic barrel of a ball-point pen over the sharp blade of the screwdriver, and it sits upright... held in place by yet another handkerchief... in my left-hand hip pocket. I have practiced with this item until I can whip it out and strike a telling defensive blow in less than a half second. These items pass inspection as tools you just happen to have on you. I sometimes use a belt with a push-blade knife concealed in the belt buckle. My Colombian and Argentine police buddies say that they would not even be suspicious or think of being suspicious of such items, since they don't run into them often... if ever. The Mexican police are a bit more suspicious of such items because they see stuff like this all the time with lots of Mexican nationals just released from prison in the US, as well as weekend commandos from the US. Again, one would face a high probability of arrest and detention if caught attempting to board an airplane with such items on one's person or hand luggage.

See the TSA web site. You can carry pepper spray in checked luggage on some airlines. Local cops that are not trying to rip you off typically won't hassle you for having it for self defense. It is not against the law in any part of the world that I am aware of. An Example: Two US guys off a private sailboat walking down the street in beautiful downtown Cartegena, Colombia in broad daylight when five thugs armed with knives tried to pull them into an alley to have their dastardly way. The sailors applied pepper spray and fled easily. The cops were televised grinning and slapping the sailors' backs in congratulation for having foiled the crooks. The reports talked a lot about the fact that the sailors had used pepper spray, and marveling at the fact that the pepper spray had so effectively disabled the crooks that they were still coughing and spitting 20 minutes later when the cops arrested them.

The small, compressed gas capsicum pepper spray canister can easily fit in the pocket, even on a key chain and is available anywhere. These canisters are usually available for purchase in any country, perhaps in a salvage/surplus/sporting goods retailer. If you prefer, It is legal to carry a small plastic bottle or baggie with cayenne pepper in checked luggage on an airplane. You could also carry an EMPTY plastic squeeze bottle, and mix up a little cocktail in the bottle with the pepper when you get access to some water at your location. I haven't used it on humans, but it worked really, really well on uncontrolled dogs trying to chase me down the street. Again, carry these items in checked luggage only.

The good news is that accurately applied pepper compounds really work. I have seen very tall, large muscle bound guys rolling on the ground screaming for their mommy, while the petite 4 foot 9 inch lady at their side is just crying quietly. The bad news is, don't bring pepper spray to a gunfight. Also, I have used pepper spray on guys lit to the gills on crystal meth doesn't work. Doesn't even slow 'em down. A really, really drunk Mejicano I used it on also didn't seem to notice.

Like anything else, pepper spray defense is an excellent option for most people, and can be considered legal almost everywhere. However, it requires good judgment and adult behavior.

An Example: Not so long ago, two US guys were leaving their sailboat in an African port. It was around sundown, and they were walking to a restaurant about a mile away. They noticed a group of locals giving them the eye as the sailors ambled away. They soon passed beyond sight of any passers by.. The dock areas were deserted. They noticed a guy running parallel to them on a path about 50 yards away in their direction of travel. They realized that they were in trouble... unarmed at night and in a foreign port with no witnesses. Sure enough, the thug ran up even to them and held them at bay 30 feet away with a pistol as his two thug friends came running up from behind. Even with martial arts training, this was the perfect setup for the thugs... no way to reach the guy with the gun before suffering serious injury, two unarmed thugs shaking them down for all their valuables. The even lost their secret hideaway stashes, and were stripped of all of their goodies. They later said the thugs searched them from the skin out, including shoes. And only the crotch area was safe. Because they were unarmed, they were left alive. The criminal with the gun had the drop on them... going for a gun would have resulted in sustaining serious injuries. This was not a scenario for a quick-draw exhibition. The police and port officials reported that the tourists were lucky. The hijack group was highly experienced and professional. Mostly, the less professional groups in the area at that time just shot you dead and took what they wanted.

What have we learned from this? Playing the “What if... ?” game, we may make suggestions.

If you are leaving a safe place in an unsafe general area (in this case, an African port... there are no “safe” ports in Africa), consider calling a taxi to come collect you. Please do not take an un-summoned taxi off the street. You want to avoid being taken around the corner so a hostile group can rob you. Having the dispatcher know which driver collected you is your best safety net.
If a group of local idlers are eying you, you are probably being sized up as a target. Return to a safe area... in this case, the secure marina, and call a taxi.
If despite your best efforts you are approached by a criminal group as professional as described, your best course of action is to submit, as did the unarmed victims in this example. Please believe me when I say that you will instantly recognize a well-planned assault. The guys in this example lived through the experience, and we can learn from them.

In this instance they had a few moments after noticing the running gunman where they could have drawn their firearms. When I carry a weapon in a dangerous area, I carry it in a shopping bag or a folded magazine/newspaper... even a hat or cap... with my hand on the grip, finger off the trigger. Just drape a handkerchief over your cocked and locked pistol if necessary, keep your ready weapon in a convenient pocket or under your shirt... but you must have your firearm in your hand ready to use, not holstered. I practice these things in the safety of my home. With 20/20 hindsight, several people were going to get hurt that night if the victims had at least one firearm in their hand... but, at the time, they had no knowledge that the usual practice was to kill the victims, and might have hesitated to fire. They would have guiltily realized at this time that they should not have been there in the first place... realizing that they had ignored the danger clues when leaving the secure marina. They might have realized that their many hours of target practice were not sufficient for a situation requiring split-second instinctive shooting at someone who had 'the drop' on them and would be shooting at them. The only chance with a weapon in this scenario would be to turn to face their attacker, cooly bring up the pistol up and take their best shot. The chances of this action being successful were not good even if they already had the gun out and ready.

Gunfights are serious matters. The outcome is serious... as the book says, No Second Place Winner. Using a firearm to wound or kill an attacker will change your life forever. We all have to look at a gunfight as an admission of guilt, of failure. You probably shouldn't have been there in the first place. A gunfight is evidence of bad judgment, unless it happens defending your family in your own home, a carjacking, etc. We must plan to be arrested after such an incident, and carry local phone numbers of attorneys/embassy officials/personal and/or business acquaintances for notification of your situation. Also, it is important to know the local laws regarding such incidents. It would be a good idea to read up on gunfights and take an instinctive shooting course if you plan to travel armed. Most importantly, practice, practice, practice.

If using a semi-auto, arm yourself with a CO2 pistol as close to the type you will be using, practice drawing and firing BBs as trained in an instinctive shooting course. Practice walking, running or sitting while shooting. Practice shooting from different types of cover from different positions. Practice instinctive shooting in low light conditions. I use my J-frame .357 with wax bullets/primers/plastic shells that I make up myself. My friends who hate guns actually enjoy this activity and look at it as play. I don't. I practice at 7 – 15 feet--about the useful range for a wax bullet--shooting at a cardboard poster. You can just tape a silhouette target over a cardboard box. You must literally train for hundreds of hours if you want to get into peak performance. And, why would you not want to be the best you can in such critical situations?

Gunfight outcomes are decided by mental attitude, instincts and carefully nurtured muscle memory. Please read up on the gunfighters who have survived lots of gun battles. There are lots of web sites describing such books, and recommendations are available from gun enthusiast and survival blogs. I first read Bill Jordan's No Second Place Winner in the 1970s. I learned to carry spare cartridges in my pistol-side jacket pocket to more swiftly flip my coat tail out of the way when drawing my weapon, and practiced it. I learned about stances, how to draw and shoot from the hip, again as my weak hand met up with the gun and again as my arms fully extended... the Jordan triple-tap... and lots more. I practice, practice, practice. The book is out of print, but used copies are available on the net for as low as US$15 plus shipping. You can't have my copy.

An Example: A more successful outcome. It was Christmas in Houston, and my friend Sara was at Sharpstown Mall carrying lots of packages and shopping bags as she went to exit the mall to go to her car. Since the lot was crowded, her car was not in an optimal location for security. Sara's situational awareness kicked in. She saw that it had gotten dark early, as it does in Houston at that time of year. She noticed some young thugs hanging around the exit. Sara returned to the mall, sought out a security guard, and requested that he escort her to her car, but he refused. Sara stood at the door for a while, contemplating a route to her car that would avoid parked vans in the lot... the criminals' vehicle of choice in Houston at that time... took careful note of who was visible from her vantage point, and plotted her course. Before she started out, she carefully sat down her packages and removed her keys and... discretely... a very small .22 caliber pistol which she concealed in her strong hand, retrieved her packages with her purse over her gun arm and set out to her car. As she was on her way, she turned around several times to scope out the other people in the lot and what they were doing. She planned to return to the mall and insist on an escort if she didn't like what she saw. When she got to her car, she was putting her keys in the door lock when a young thug rushed up to her and yelled some obscenities and threats at her as he grabbed Sara's purse, attached to her gun arm by the strap. The action caused Sara's pistol's pointy end to actually go up his nose. He said... and I quote Sara's description... “Whoa, Mamma! Be cool.” Sara said, “This is as cool as I get.” The thug's friends were running up to help, but the young thug said, “Let's get outta here She got a PIECE up my nose”, and they all took off running. Sara immediately drove to the nearest police station to report the attempted crime and the mall security guard's indifference. She later found out that the young criminals were part of a large group that kept a rental van parked in a central location, and the various teams were dropping off their ill-gotten swag so their hands were free for more crime without encumbrance. Several older people were hurt that night in the Sharpstown Mall parking lot. One younger victim, a man, tried to resist with his wife and children present and ended up in the hospital with permanent damage from the beating he got.

In the two preceding examples we see that options only exist for the wary. The two sailors ignored the little stomach lurch of instinct when they saw thugs eying them. Had the group of thugs that targeted them been less professional, they would probably have died for ignoring their instincts. It only takes one mistake like that... an instant of recognition that was ignored... to end our lives.

Sara's example ended well because she understood that only outstanding situational awareness and planning via “What if... ?” scenarios can help us survive potentially dangerous situations. Even though she was armed, Sara's pistol would have ended up as part of the criminal swag had she not had it in her hand and “gotten the drop” on her own private thug. She probably would have sustained a few injuries as the thug pistol-whipped her with her own gun for being dumb enough to carry a pistol she wasn't ready to use.

Please keep in mind that thugs hate you and everyone else that has more than they have. They have only contempt for those who have less. As they gain more experience at thuggery, they develop a bored indifference to violence and will kill without remorse and spend their swag on a nice meal immediately after a rewarding murder. If you are in law enforcement, you already know this.

Ex-military people who have been in Close Quarters Combat know how to shoot instinctively, how to survive a gun battle, and how to keep their heads on a swivel. They are adept at the “What if... ?” game. Unlike police officers who have survived many criminal confrontations, they may lack other important skill sets. Whomever you may be, it is important to brutally analyze your inventory skill sets, try to determine which sets you lack, and work on trying to improve your chances in a criminal confrontation. Please keep in mind that though Sara did everything right except be in a crime-prone area... not very avoidable in Houston at that time... she had to use every skill set she had plus a lot of nerve to survive unscathed her criminal confrontation. And, yes... street survival is a mind game.

Decoy Money: Consider keeping about US$30 to $50 folded up in a place where you can get to it. If an armed thief comes up to you, give it to him. He may just go away and leave you alone. Seriously… it's been reported as a successful ploy and may save you. Be aware that I have seen video of five armed guys stripping a guy on the street at night. There is no hiding place when you’re barefoot and naked, unless you have your goodies in a tube inserted into a body cavity. If you can avoid that by giving them the bait money, good for you. If not… you’re gonna lose the bait money and everything else anyway. Just a thought: consider carrying the bait money in small bills and throw them to the wind so you can get a head start in running to a safer place very fast. I know from personal experience that this works... sometimes. I also carry my pepper spray concealed in my hand with my finger on the trigger while observing suspicious activity. Since I am not allowed to carry a firearm in my residence country, I need the pepper spray to get far enough away to pull my collapsible baton/flashlight combo as I run toward a safer place. And, yes, I have trained in baton tactics, read many instruction manuals and scenarios, and practice, practice, practice.

Other common sense items: Try to share info from the Internet, news items, overheard comments, etc from traveler Internet boards. We need to help one another.

Dress for Success
Wear layered clothing with lots of zip/Velcro/snap pockets to make it more difficult to clean you out if your pockets are “picked”… spread your cash around your body and clothes… taxi/bridge fare in your shoes.. If you are in an area known as a high threat area for kidnapping, it is best to never wear sandals or flip-flops, no matter how hot. This is in case you are kidnapped and have to walk in rough terrain 10+ hours per day for a few days.

Never carry a checkbook. Identity theft attempts were made after I lost my checkbook in Colombia.

Never sign the back of a credit card. Write “see photo ID” in the signature block. Whenever possible, carry Xerox copies of your important docs. In Argentina, I have a Xerox of the signature/photo page, last entry page and visa page of my passport reduced to fit on the front and back of a single sheet of paper, as well as the receipt for my application fee to obtain an Argentine National ID card/Resident.

Stun Guns
Until they come out with a secret stun ring, I would worry about the cops getting cranky if they found it on you. The good news... they work better than any other non-lethal method of self defense. Oh, except not going to a place where you are likely to need it. No matter how drunk, pilled up or crazy an attacker, and no matter how big and tough, they will be rolling on the dirt screaming for mommy. Again, don't bring a stun gun to a gun fight unless you are ex-law enforcement or otherwise trained/expert in defensive tactics.

Collapsible baton: This is my all-time favorite. But be advised, to the best of my knowledge a baton is not legal in any part of the world. However, it is easily concealable. I carry my 17 inch (extended) baton from eBay discretely in a jeans hip pocket. I paid extra for an LED flashlight butt from eBay so it appears to be a flashlight with a long handle. It doesn't even look extendable. The flashlight module gives good light and replaces the butt ferrule.

If you are fluent in the local language, do not show off or act like a jerk, you may be get by okay with a collapsible baton in most countries. An Example: I have carried my "flashlight with an extensible handle" in Mexico, in Colombia and Argentina on and off cruise ships (the worst questioning I had to endure while going thru bag checks by cruise ship personnel). I had a problem with an federal officer checking hand luggage at the Buenos Aires airport. I had planned to leave it at my Argentine home. I forgot it was in a small bag stuffed in my carry-on luggage. Woops! I was embarrassed. This could have been serious if I wasn't muy fluido en castellano and such an obviously nice, friendly guy. This guy was giving me a bad case of cop eye as I smiled and explained that it was a flashlight. With an expressionless face, he extended it. I showed him my Florida commercial appraiser license and explained it was for seeing into dark corners while appraising buildings. He said... "Sir, this is a weapon". I smiled and stuck it in the box they had there for disposing of small knives, scissors, et cetera. Still smiling, I shrugged my shoulders and got the rest of my stuff together and departed, dignity almost intact. My wife was laughing. I heard the Feds laughing, too. I was out $40 for my own stupidity. It would have been fine in checked luggage. No problem... I got another one via eBay for about $50 and resolved to always re-check the contents carry-on bags prior to leaving home.

In any country, it seems reasonable to follow some common sense safety tactics:

Try to avoid places without a lot of activity, especially dark places. If you have to wait for another group to leave the location to have some company, please do so.
Carry a whistle and/or pepper spray on your key chain. If attacked, make as much noise as possible while running away, if possible.
When exiting a building to go to your car, stop for a second to visually scan the area. Cops are trained to do this. Hold your keys in your hand... not in your pocket, bag or belt clip. Check the back seat visually prior to unlocking the door of the vehicle. If you see suspicious activity, or a van parked next to your vehicle that blocks the view of your entry into your vehicle from others, do a wide sweep... a walk around before entering... or, consider going back into the building to observe for a while. This is especially important if you are with an adult entertainment specialist... she may be part of the gang that want to check out your pockets.
If you are carrying a bag with a shoulder strap, wear the strap laterally across your back with the bag in front and walk toward vehicular traffic. Why? I once saw a lady being dragged down the street for almost a block before the strap broke. A pickup passenger had leaned out and grabbed her strap--in broad daylight with lots of witnesses--and fled the scene. If you are facing oncoming traffic, you can see suspicious approaches and prepare. Pillion riders on motorcycles or scooters are the most common snatch thieves.
If you are carrying a purse or the equivalent, consider carrying it upside down, snap open and held closed by your hand. If a thief grabs it out of your hand all your stuff will go on the pavement... which is a good thing. It gives you a distraction so you can use your best weapon.--your feet-- to escape.
It is difficult to over-stress the importance of the conscientious and judicious use of your eyes, brain and feet to keep anyone safe no matter where in the world you may be. Observe carefully with your eyes so that your brain can evaluate potential threats, and use your feet to avoid iffy locations.

If your attempt to be inconspicuous is unsuccessful, your defensive tactics aren't a good idea and you find yourself naked on the side of the road with a bunch of bad guys, here are some tips that were passed down from folks who have succeeded in getting away from the NarcoTerror boys.

Lighten up on yourself. You have the right to a reasonable expectation of personal security no matter where in the world you are located. Your rights have been violated and you were savagely captured by bad guys who have no redeeming social value. Now is the time to settle down and consider your new situation and possible options.
Be creative with health issues. Show them your surgical scars, your diabetes meds, (consider getting some meds whether you really need them or not... your doctor may have some ideas) anything that may make them decide you are more trouble than you may be worth to them... even if you have to make stuff up. Lie to them, please. Be creative in subtle ways to slow the column of marchers throughout the journey. Fake a bad ankle and make them go steal a mule/burro/horse from some poor farmer to transport you. Always be alert to opportunities to escape safely from the NarcoTraficantes' area. Always go downhill when you escape... find a stream, then a river, always go downstream until you find a road or other signs of civilization. Sometimes it's a good idea to hide in the day, travel at night... but, be aware that traveling at night can be dangerous in the jungle/woods/mountains... not recommended for those with poor night vision.
Make certain that they understand that you have no living relatives or flush employer to ransom you. This is key. If they took you from your work compound, a helicopter they shot down. et cetera, then that is going to be a tough sell. If you carry family/love interest photos, unless you can convince the NarcoTraficantes that the folks in the photos are dead, it is not easy. Optimally, plan to try to appear to be an impoverished , anti-social, solitary orphan backpacker, student or teacher.
One of the best ways to escape is to fake an illness that they can't treat you for locally. Several victims have gotten away from relaxed security in a town with a doctor under NarcoTerrorist control. Some research on symptoms prior to your trip may be a good idea. It is not very easy to fake out the medical person most NarcoTerror bands usually have.
If you appear to be such a high value prize that they can't afford to give you up except for a big payoff, then none of the above will be very helpful. But do it anyway. Everyone lets a competitor have an advantage by making an error, especially the NarcoTraficantes. Many of the individual groups include young people who don't like what they are doing... many were pressed into service during raids on their village. But, you most often will have to be creative and make up a good story to create your own opportunities.
Most important: Forgive yourself for being captive and unable to meet your obligations. When Ingrid Betancourt was rescued from FARC forces in Colombia, she told debriefing officers that she had more problems related to the mental stress from feeling she had let down her family, friends and associates by becoming a captive than the physical stress. Even though she understood that she was a captive through no fault of her own, she had a difficult struggle overcoming her guilt. She and other captives have reported that self forgiveness is the most important key to survival in a long term captivity. Seven years, in her case.

[Tomorrow, Part 2.]

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Tuesday August 25 2009

Letter Re: Laser Protective Goggles

Sir:
When I was a young Marine in the first gulf war I heard that it was quite common for tank crews to blind the enemy with the tanks laser. Do you know of any protective glasses/goggles that would prevent retina damage from lasers? Thanks, - Keith

JWR Replies: The problem is that you need a separate filter for each ranges of wavelengths (measured in nanometers). By the time that you stack enough filters to stop all of the non-eye safe laser threats, you end up with something about as opaque as welder's goggles. I guess this explains why the Stormtroopers in Star Wars were such bad shots. ;-)

There may be some practical countermeasures. My best guess is that it would be Alexandrite lasers that would be used for intentional blinding, as I described in "Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse". Do a web search on "Dazer and Stingray." You will find some scary stuff. I discussed both eye safe and non-eye safe lasers in a series of articles that I wrote when I was a full time associate editor for Defense Electronics magazine, back in the late 1980s. These articles concerned the U.S. Army's now defunct Dazer (hand held) and Stingray (tactical vehicle and aircraft-mounted) laser weapon programs. Both had been intended to counter enemy EO sensors, but were unfortunately indiscriminate in damaging the Mark I human eyeball. (They used high power Alexandrite lasers, which have a wavelength that is not eye safe.) As I recall, the Dazer program was cancelled around 1992, and the larger Stingray system development was de-funded in 1996, right around the time of ratification of the UN Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons. (Main reference: Rawles, James W. "Directed Energy Weapons: Battlefield Beams." Defense Electronics, August 1989. v. 21, no. 8, p. 47-54.) If you buy a pair of goggles or sunglasses designed to protect against Alexandrite lasers (+/- 755 nanometers), they would also have some effectiveness against lasers in adjacent wavelengths.

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Saturday August 22 2009

Letter Re: Cattle Rustling on the Rise

James,
First off, we continue to pray for your family. Whatever the Lord’s plan is, he will show you grace and mercy. Blessed be the name of the Lord.

Secondly, one of my cattle buyers, corroborated by one of my truckers, has informed me of some signs-of-the-times, unconfirmed via regular news outlets so far, cattle rustling in Pennsylvania is on the rise, including something not usually seen, carcass remnants. Several barns/pastures have cattle missing, one load of which was recovered at a sale barn, and at least a half dozen reports from different farmers finding carcasses, with primals cut out, in remote portions of hill pastures. I also found this news article and this ABC News video clip.

We all saw the report from Florida about horse butchering, but this is slightly different, IMO. We run cattle on quite a few different operations and are concerned at this potential loss of wealth. We have invested heavily in livestock to preserve wealth, reproduce wealth, insure a food supply and, well it’s also our business! We are holding our first “cattle works” in a few weeks and will be branding all our horses and cattle. It may not solve/reduce all the problems, but we believe it will help.

Thanks for your efforts, you are performing a valuable service. - Trent H., in a Rural Corner of Pennsylvania

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Friday August 21 2009

Letter Re: Preparedness for Living on a Chesapeake Bay Island

Mr. Rawles,
I am just now (pretty late in the game, I know) becoming aware of the impending collapse and have begun reading your blog regularly (it is the first thing I read in the mornings now). I realize now that I must prepare as much as I can and have a question about my current location. I live on an isolated (no bridges, ferry and airplane transport only) Island in the Chesapeake Bay. It is somewhat densely populated for its size, but everyone knows each other and most residents hunt and fish and have their own boats. Many residents are quite self sufficient and the crime rate is virtually non- existent. I realize we are downwind of several nuclear targets (DC is only about 70 miles away as the crow flies) but this area (the Delmarva Peninsula) and this island in particular are sparsely populated. I recently bought a house here and cannot afford to move anywhere anytime soon, and if I could, I could only get to rural western Virginia, West Virginia, or Eastern Kentucky at the furthest. The only benefit of my current locale is that in the event of a collapse, it would be isolated and looters would be unable to get here. On the other hand, there would be 500+ residents and little or no fuel to power fishing vessels after current supplies run out. The climate is mild and we could get by with little or no heat in the winter. Much of the surrounding land is swampland and not conducive to agriculture. There are few firearms on the Island other than a few shotguns for duck hunting. I currently own a Glock 21 (.45 ACP) for personal protection and am looking into rifles. I would like an M1A but probably could not afford one. How could I make my current situation more suited to riding out a crisis? Any response will be greatly appreciated. Very Respectfully, - R.T.

JWR Replies: A few things come immediately to mind:

You should stock up on fuel for your own use, and for barter.) Coleman white gas has a 6+ year shelf life, and can be used in engines as well as lanterns and stoves.
Stock up on two-cycle fuel-mixing oil. (For chainsaws and older outboard engines.)
Have a large propane tank installed, and make sure that it is has a wet leg. (So that it can be used to fill smaller containers.)
If you don't have one already, get a tri-fuel generator, and a photovoltaic power system if you can afford it.
You need a long gun for defense. Even if it is just a well-used "beater" Mauser, Mosin-Nagant, or Enfield bolt-action, that is better than nothing. And in essence, what you currently have is almost nothing.(Don't bring just a pistol to a rifle fight!)
Stock up on non-hybrid gardening seeds. (Several of my advertisers sell them.) Also, build up your topsoil!

Your situation is unusual, but not unique. Make the best of the local resources, and organize with your neighbors to provide a common defense.

One could safely predict that in the event of a "slow slide" depression, you may see a situation develop similar to that of present-day Roatan Island (off the coast of Honduras), where burglars and even home invasion robbers commute to the island from the mainland via ferryboat.

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Wednesday August 19 2009

What Divides You from The Sheeple? Plenty!

Nearly every week, I get at least one frantic e-mail from a new SurvivalBlog reader, stating that they feel woefully under-prepared. The gist of these e-mails is: "I'm behind the power curve! How can I possibly get prepared in time?"

Fear not! Just by reading SurvivalBlog and taking some small, gradual steps at preparedness, you are miles ahead of your sheeple neighbors. And even with just modest preparedness measures, you have already substantially increased your chances of surviving most scenarios.

As I see it, here are your advantages:

Awareness
Most people are clueless. They have a naive Pollyanna outlook. But SurvivalBlog readers see the Big Picture, and plan accordingly. Because you are constantly aware of current events, you won't be one of the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) masses that invariably gets petrified in a crisis. Instead of just sitting there glued to a Crackberry, you will be taking concrete, meaningful action. While others spin in circles like beheaded poultry, you'll be busy helping to get things back to normal.

Skills and Knowledge
Unlike the folks that absorbed in the mindless American Idol television culture, you've spent your available time in taking hands-on training, and reading up on practical and tactical skills. You've also assembled a home library of useful references.

Networking
Most of you have teamed up with like-minded relatives, friends, church congregants, and neighbors. Meanwhile, your average suburbanite doesn't even know the names of all of the neighbors on his block, much less know their skill sets.

Tools
You've bought the best tools you could afford, for all foreseeable eventualities. Whether it is your Hi-Lift jack or your Glock, you've done your homework and acquired the most appropriate and durable gear. Meanwhile, your neighbors have frittered away their funds on jet-skis, Beanie Babies, Hummel figurines, and big screen plasma HDTVs.

Planning
You've developed both "stay put" and "Get Out of Dodge" plans, plus a few alternates. You keep your bugout bag and even your passport handy.

Logistics
Unlike the sheeple--who aren't prepared for even a three day power failure--you have your beans, bullets, and Band-Aids stocked away, in depth. While your sheeple neighbors are flocking to the grocery store, where they will most likely find only empty shelves, you'll be sitting pretty. And while they are pondering their two gallon gas can for their lawn mower--their only stored fuel--you have laid in enough to not only be ready for a crisis, but you cane even pick and choose your time to re-stock, when their are dips in fuel prices.

Locale
A minority of highly motivated SurvivalBlog readers have taken my advice and relocated to safer regions. I hope that more of you do the same!

Communications
You already have your commo and band scanning gear up and running. While most folks will be completely ignorant when the power grids and phone systems go down, you'll be coordinating with your Group, and keeping track of where the malo hombres are moving, and where they might be heading next.

Capacity for Charity
There is room in the hearts of most SurvivalBlog readers to dispense copious charity. We consider it our duty. And more than just the willingness to dispense charity, most of us just as importantly also have the capacity--namely, the requisite materiel. If you can't spare it, then you can't share it. As I often tell journalists in phone interviews: I don't look at my food storage as a three year supply for one family. Rather, it is a one year supply for three families.

The Bottom Line
To wax a bit metapohrical, SurvivalBlog readers are what the actuarial accountants would call "low rate qualifiers"--meaning that because we have minimized our risks and maximized our potential life spans we'd qualify for the lowest possible insurance rates. There are no absolute guarantees, but your chance of achieving room temperature at an early age is far, far below that of the average man. Pat yourself on the back, and then redouble your efforts to get squared way.

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Tuesday August 11 2009

Letter Re: Surviving 90 Miles from the US -- A Cuban-American Exile's View

A brief background of myself. I am an Telecommunications Engineer, I served three years in the Cuban army as an Engineer in several units (it was mandatory unless you were integrated with the system, in which case you will get a better civilian job). After I served my time they did not want to release me (basically no one wants to stay unless you are willing to do their bidding) so they offered 2 years to a very harsh unit that stays in the mountains for months end ready to be sent anywhere, or stay for 20 years in very comfortable position as an Engineer, I sucked up the two years (30 months
actually) and then left and never again worked for the government, but I was walking a very fine line. I left the country illegally. They would never let me go, everybody needs permission to leave the country. This was more than 15 years ago and this is the first time that I have talked about it freely with someone outside my very close circle of family and friends. Please do not mention my surname.

The government controls everything, I mean everything, from health, to communications, from commerce to defense. When government controls everything there is absolutely nothing you can do. They determine what is legal and sometimes they let you get away with it, as long as you do not mess with the regime. They can take you to jail for anything because as I said everything is illegal. You cannot legally sell a house, only cars that were in the country before 1959 can be sold legally, [Owning a] DirecTV [satellite television receiver] is illegal. The list goes on and on.

In order to survive you must depend on the government or go black market. There is something called the Comite de Defensa de la Revolucion (CDR), basically is an organization at community block level that monitors everything that happens and reports to the government, it is completely volunteer, but it tells you how low citizens will go.

Electrical Power is obviously controlled by the government, and they impose restrictions so you will have times that power will come on for only a few hours a day, people have converters because generators are hard to get and even harder to get gas for them (it is expensive, a gallon goes for about 8 dollars a gallon last time I heard), to use the converter you hide in a room to watch some TV, have a fan for the heat and that's it. You must try to hide, as much as you can, the things that you have, because you might get robbed. Being robbed at home is nothing new, you try to be as modest
as you can--otherwise you will become a target, by thieves or the government if you are getting too out of control.

Water is also government controlled, it does the same as with the electrical power, you can go days without water, so every house has water tanks to store water, even in buildings people will have water tanks in the bathroom. Drinking water always needs to be boiled.

People will raise pigs in a bathtub in the bathroom or if you are lucky to have a small backyard and someone to watch over it because it will be stolen. Pig will give meat and the fat you need to cook.

People that live in the countryside can raise animals and food, they can sell it under government supervision, they cannot become wealthy because government will intervene and accuse them of "exploiting" others.

It is illegal to kill a cow or a horse, as the government has a strict control. [If you slaughter one without prior approval and are caught,] you will serve the same time as if you killed a human being. People will slaughter a cow and dispose of it in two hours and "disappear" the remains by burning it with car tires because it burns very hot. And then you have to be careful how to transport [the meat] because they will have checkpoints. They can stop you anywhere, anytime for any reason and ask to search your vehicle.

You have to be extremely careful on who you trust, because they could be a government informer. (Did you see how our government is asking [their allies] to report when they see something "fishy" about [opposition to socialized] healthcare? That scares the h*** out of me.)

Not everyone can move to the countryside because the government controls that, they control movement within the country, you just can't pick up your stuff and decide to move, so you have to make a living where you are. In the countryside you'll have more food but they will cut electrical power more often. I used to install alarms (on my own, I refused to work for the government) for farmers that had pigs, pigs are raised in jail-like cages to avoid thievery, so I would install an alarm with battery backup because they had so much power shortages.

It goes without saying that [privately-owned] guns are illegal.

I just wanted to give an idea about how people live under a [total] government-controlled country. They will slowly take away your liberties and you will find out one day that you have nothing. And your fellow citizens will go as low as they can to survive. Government would threaten their family and force you to do what they say. This is always under the [mantle of] "we are doing it for the benefit of the majority, and only because we are in a crisis", but there is always a crisis.

They will say that you do not want to work for the improvement of the country, that you are against your people, they will make things up, and suddenly you will become a pariah. Does it sound familiar "... these mobs against health care are destroying the democratic process..." Next it will be "they are organized by the enemies of democracy" and suddenly "we need to eliminate this threats to our democracy".

Never think it cannot happen [here in the United States]. Sincerely, - Ignacio

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Sunday August 9 2009

Delay and Pray: Why the FDIC is Broke, by Dr. Gary North

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." -- Burt Lance

"If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen." -- [Gary North's] universal law of bureaucracy

Burt Lance was briefly the head of the Office of Management and Budget under Jimmy Carter. He was a Good Old Boy from the banking world of Georgia. A William Safire piece, "Broken Lance," created enough bad publicity to persuade Lance to retire in September 1977. The article won Safire a Pulitzer Price.

Lance's aphorism, taken from the South, has been with us ever since.

I made up the second aphorism. It is based on my 40+ years of studying government bureaucracies.

The FDIC adheres to the second rule with remarkable tenacity. It closes no banks until Friday afternoon. This ensures that there will not be a run on the bank.

BANK RUNS

A bank run today is not the old-fashioned kind that we see every Christmas season when we watch "It's a Wonderful Life." That was a pre-FDIC bank run. A bank run took place in the Great Depression when depositors, who had been promised payment in currency on demand, exercised their contractual rights. The banks were unable to fulfill their contractual obligations because they had loaned out the
deposits. The deposits were short-term. The loans were longer-term.

Longest of all for banks were home mortgages: five years with 50% down. Longest of all were home loans made by Building & Loans, what we called Savings & Loans until the crisis of the mid-1980's forced them to become banks.

"Borrowed short and lent long." That was Jimmy Stewart's problem in the movie.

Potter ran a solvent bank. He had not made long-term loans. The bank could cash in his short-term loans and pay its depositors. It could meet its contractual obligations.

Wicked, mean Potter!

In contrast was the lovable George Bailey. His institution had made long-term loans. It stayed solvent during a bank run only because (1) Bailey gave up his $2,000 honeymoon [savings] money (about $20,000 in today's money); and (2) the bank run ended at 6 p.m. The bank run did not start up again the next day. That wasn't the work of Clarence, the wingless angel. That was the work of Frank Capra's screenwriters.

Over 6,000 small banks went bankrupt, 1930-33. The FDIC was created in 1934 to prevent that kind of bank run. Its presence calmed depositors, who knew that a government- chartered institution insured their accounts.

The FDIC eliminated the old-fashioned bank run. It replaced it with the modern bank run. This is the type of run we see every Friday afternoon.

This run does not involve depositors going to a suspect bank's ATM and pulling out currency. No one uses that much currency in conventional markets -- only in black markets, Latino men on the street corner markets, and gun shows.

Instead, they send a bank wire draft to make a deposit in a different bank. Or they write a check to a different bank and open an account.

When the money is deducted from the first bank, this reduced its liabilities. This must be balanced by an equal reduction of its assets. But a bank that is in trouble has illiquid assets. It must sell these at a loss. The net worth of the bank falls. The capitalized value of the bank falls. By law, the FDIC must intervene to shut down the bank when the solvency of the bank is threatened.

This law is not being obeyed. Why not?

"If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen."

Why does the FDIC wait until Friday afternoon to announce that a bank has been closed by the FDIC. To make the transfer of ownership legal by Monday morning, when it opens for business. "Under new management" means "you don't have to send your money elsewhere." This reduces fear.

If the FDIC closed a bank on Monday, before it had lined up a buyer, there would be a run on the bank all week. Depositors would shift their funds elsewhere. The FDIC would still be left holding the bag. The bag would have lots more IOUs to depositors by the end of the week. It is a bag filled with red ink.

The FDIC is liable for the deposits. The more pulled deposits, the lower the capitalized value of the bank. This means the FDIC is on the hook for more money. It wanted an outside bank to buy these liabilities and assets. If the liabilities must be covered by the FDIC, the FDIC must sell its assets.

It has less than $12 billion in assets remaining. It had $52.4 billion in 2007.

The following letter is posted on the FDIC's web site. It is from an unidentified banker in Alabama. Here, we read the following:

If the public were to understand that the FDIC's deposit insurance fund was at or near the point of depletion there would be a massive run on every bank in the country and the any remaining stability in the financial industry would be gone. This would likely result in the government having to take over more of these failed institutions and eventually having to guarantee all deposits thus resulting in a nationalized
banking system, which I 100% opposed.

If the FDIC posts a letter like this on its web site, then I conclude that the FDIC takes seriously this scenario.

The FDIC has a FAQ list on its site. The list does not include these questions, which I guess are not frequently asked:

How much money does the FDIC have in reserve?

How much money in commercial bank deposits does
this reserve base insure?

Where does the FDIC invest its assets?

Who insures these assets?

At the end of 2008, its annual report revealed that reserves were down to $17.2 billion (Fund balance -- ending). That was down from $52.4 billion at the end of 2007.

Beginning in January 2009, 69 banks have failed. The list is here. [JWR Adds: Since Gary wrote this article last week, the tally of failed banks for 2009 has increased to 72.]

The general estimate is that the FDIC's reserves are around $12 billion. They were at $13 billion in March. The ratio of FDIC reserves to banks assets covered was 0.27%, or 27 cents for every $100 in bank deposits.

The FDIC keeps its [so-called] reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury debt. So, every time it sells T-bills, the government must find a buyer, presumably in the private sector. The FDIC has access to money only by moving T-bills out of the government sector and into the private sector.

If there are no buyers, the Federal Reserve will buy the T-bills. So, the Federal Reserve System is the ultimate insurer of the banking system. How can it do this? By creating money out of nothing.

DELAYING THE ANNOUNCEMENT

The FDIC has an incentive to delay the announcement of another bank failure. If the bank can somehow dig its way out of its crisis, the FDIC conserves its reserves.

In March of 2009 Senator Dodd introduced a bill into the Senate, S. 541. If passed, it will grant the FDIC a $500 billion line of credit. It has not been debated in the Senate or the House. Why not? Publicity.

"If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen."

The FDIC is delaying the announcement of its takeover of three regional banks whose liabilities could deplete the FDIC's reserves. Karl Denninger posted a revealing report on his site on August 2. It considered the situation facing these three banks. Two of them have reported negative Tier-1 Ratios. This means that they have a negative ratio of assets versus liabilities. They are legally bankrupt.

The third bank needs a $500 million infusion of private capital, plus another $500 million from the Federal government. If this bank goes under, it will be the sixth largest bank failure, by assets, in U.S. history.

It has $20 billion in assets. How much money might the FDIC be forced to raise by selling its own assets if this bank goes under? In the case of Florida's BankUnited, which had $12.8 billion in assets, the FDIC had to pony up almost $5 billion. That was a loss of 40% of assets, Denninger points out. Yet the bank showed nothing like this loss until it was shut down. Neither did IndyMac.

The FDIC has not closed any of the three banks. By law, it must take Protective Corrective Action, Denninger says. It hasn't.

These three banks are regional banks, not small local banks whose losses the FDIC can afford to absorb without much publicity on a Friday afternoon.

PAR FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S COURSE

Why did the other busted banks suffer such enormous percentage losses when the banks' accountants revealed nothing like this? Denninger offers a cogent explanation.

An enormous number of banks are holding loans at or close to "par" that really aren't. They're holding mortgages at massively-inflated values, even on defaulted properties, and this is why you
are not seeing more foreclosure sales - that is, why inventory is being held back. If they sell it the accountants will force recognition of the loss, which will render them instantly insolvent, but so long as they "extend and pretend" they are marking these loans way, way above recovery value. The upshot of this is that these firms' balance sheet claims on asset values are massively inflated, regulators know it, and
they're intentionally ignoring it.

If this is true, which I think it is, then the continuing crisis in housing will pressure the banks even more. The suggestion that the crisis is over ignores the looming losses from defaults on re-sets of Alt-A mortgages and Option ARM mortgages. Over he next two years, they will rival the losses inflicted on lenders by subprime mortgages. The chart is here.

Denninger's conclusion seems sensible to me.

The claim of banking sector health and "successful rescue by Treasury and The Fed" is in fact false. No such thing has occurred. What's going on here is nothing more or less than intentional false claims of asset "valuation", which is repeatedly exposed when the FDIC is finally forced to seize institutions, exposing the lies. Then, suddenly, 20, 30, even 40% losses on alleged "asset books" come out into the
light and the taxpayer eats them.

The banks are allowed to carry these dead and dying assets on their books at par value. This is par for the course -- the government's course.

[Like Denninger], I believe the FDIC is broke and knows it; that under the law they should have seized these three banks (and many dozens more, including some really big ones) some time ago, but doing so will force them to tap the Treasury "emergency" credit line. They're well-aware that this could instill quite a bit of panic in the public (never mind Congress!); as such they, along with [the Office of Thrift Supervision] OTS and [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] OCC are conspiring to (once again) hide the truth and pray for an economic recovery before they are forced to act as the law demanded months or even years ago!

This policy of delay and pray is pushing up the stock market. He pointed out that insider sales by corporate executives are higher today than an any time since late 2007. They know what is going on inside their own firms.

CONCLUSIONS

When banks refuse to sell empty foreclosed houses, the houses deteriorate. The bankers delay and pray, hoping the housing market will turn back up. They don't want to list these properties as losses. They are allowed to delay such a listing until the properties are sold.

Empty houses deteriorate fast: weather, squatters, and vandals. This is why private property insurance firms revoke property damage insurance after 30 days of vacancy.

These capital losses are mounting, thereby lowering the value of the loans' collateral. These are hidden losses. The lenders' books do not record these losses.

The longer banks delay sales of foreclosed houses, the greater the capital losses for these banks.

The longer the FDIC refuses to close these banks and get these properties sold, the larger the losses the FDIC will suffer when it finally closes the banks.

The longer these empty houses are not sold, the longer this sword of Damocles hangs over the residential real estate market. This delays the recovery: too much inventory.

This "shadow inventory" is not reported to any official institution. No one knows how large it is nationally. All that investors know is that it is large, and it will get larger.

Delay and pray will fail. But no government official will lose his or her job when the day of reckoning comes.

Delay and pray will therefore continue.

"If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen."

« Economics and Investing: |Main| Underground Survival Shelter Construction and Security--Learn from My Mistakes, by B.B. »

Saturday August 8 2009

Letter Re: Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?

Mr. Rawles:
The recent article that you linked to about the unemployed Indiana couple was disturbing on so many levels. The family in this article had a completely different way of doing things and the timing of reading the two articles in a short period of time highlighted the stark difference. - G&K in Florida

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Thursday August 6 2009

Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?

The hard economic times that I--and many others--warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer.

This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it.

Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term "white trash" comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his "austere" budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children's school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate!

This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.)

It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin' Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their "Energy" drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don't be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies.

In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: "The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe."

Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression:

Work cheerfully and diligently. It is slackers that find themselves unemployed first.
Get debt free and stay debt free. Take on no new indebtedness, and pay down the debts you already have.
Learn to distinguish essentials from non-essentials.
Write a budget, and stick to it. Whittle it, as necessary, to avoid debt.
Sell off your useless Beanie babies and assorted knickknacks.
Increase your savings
Build up your food storage
Diversify your investments. Don't put all your money in one bank.
Check your bank or S&L's safety rating at TheStreet.com. Check your stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and insurers, while you are at it.)
Hedge your investments with some tangibles
Sell off any vacation or rental properties that don't have retreat potential
If you move, then it should be to a place near a secure job, and preferably to a piece of farm or ranch land that provides some self-sufficiency.
Develop a second stream of income.
Release yourself from your addictions. Pray fervently, and if need be, seek help.
Plant a garden.
Stay in shape.
Be willing to accept work that is lower paying or less appealing
Be charitable.
Most importantly: Get right with God. (Believe, repent of your sin, confess Jesus as your savior, and be baptized.) It is time to pray hard, folks! I believe in predestination. If you are reading this, and feel convicted to make change in your life, then you are fulfilling what God has had planned for you since "before the foundations of the Earth."

Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up.

One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative's basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, "rolled up sleeves" work.

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Letter Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals--Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe?

Good Morning.
I have been diversifying my investments, with a strong emphasis on gold and pre-1965 [silver] coins. Currently, the coins are stored in a bank safe deposit box.

Can you tell me, in the event of a "bank holiday" will safe deposit boxes be available? In other words, I understand that they won't allow me to withdraw cash from my account (my understanding of the term, bank holiday). But, would the bank allow customers access to the safe deposit boxes to withdraw whatever might be stored in the vault?

Thanks for all you do. Keep up the good work. - RBH

JWR Replies: No, bank boxes will probably be unavailable, since in bank holiday, bank lobbies will be closed to the public. In fact, the "worst case" for hard money preppers would be the combination of a bank holiday and a simultaneous gold confiscation a la 1933. I can foresee that you would only have access to your safe deposit box under the watchful eye of a sworn officer, on your first deposit box access following a gold seizure--either by executive order or by an act of congress. So your options include private (non-bank vault companies--very few and far between, unless you live in Las Vegas), or hidden storage caches at home. I prefer the latter. For details, see this piece that I wrote about wall and door caches in SurvivalBlog.

Coincidentally, reader Mike O. recently sent me the link to this LifeHacker article: Where and How to Safely Hide Cash in Your Home. And soon after, reader Andrew D. sent this: Seven Secret Places to Hide Cash in Your Home. You gotta love synchronicity.

« Economics and Investing: |Main| Gear Up -- Appropriate and Redundant Technologies for Prepared Families »

Tuesday July 28 2009

Letter Re: Shoot or Don't Shoot--Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life

James,
I've gotta chime in here. Jeff R.'s submission is great but I think he overlooked one very important point. He said:

"If you are involved in a shooting and it appears there may be an official inquiry, forget flashy, emotional phrases that uninformed people throw around, such as “shoot-to-kill,” “shoot-to-wound,” or “shoot-to” anything. Facts, not flash, will win the day. You didn’t shoot to do anything other than to stop the action and end the danger to yourself and your family. The old shoot-to-kill question is a trap that has been used on police officers in court; “if you shot to kill, why could you not shoot-to-wound?” Anybody familiar with defense shooting knows that close quarters shootings involve little more than shoving the gun at the target and firing. Likewise, nobody involved in a shooting has the luxury of time to ponder nonsense questions like the above."

I would submit that not only should you "forget flashy, emotional phrases" - you should say nothing.. Anything other than "Officer, my life was in jeopardy, I would like to speak to an attorney now." is a perilous mistake. Even if you are totally justified, completely innocent of wrongdoing., say nothing. Not even innocent-seeming justifications or alibis. Nothing. "I would like to speak to an attorney now". Anything else and you are in serious peril.

I am not an attorney. Here you can see a law professor explain why.

As a side note: There is a video commonly shown to police academy students that depicts a real situation where a man armed with a knife attacked an armed police officer from across a room (10-to-15 feet). I have heard that merely viewing that video (and communicating the fact of said viewing) to a prosecutor can result in the dismissal of charges related to shooting a person who is threatening you with a knife. (While you're armed with a gun). YMMV. Research carefully. - Matt R.

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Monday July 27 2009

Community Disaster Recovery--Asking the Right People the Right Questions

I was pleased to see this post over at the Mountain Steps blog: A letter to our county commissioner about emergency preparation for hyperinflation. It is commendable to make such inquiries, but it is essential to ask detailed questions. Especially when contacting elected officials, vague, general questions tend to elicit vague, general answers, and hence most likely no action will be taken.

It is also essential that you do some research first, to direct your inquiry letter or phone call to the right individuals. Flunkies don't create or change policy, they just implement it. You need to direct your letter to someone that has the authority to make policy, and has the budget to implement it. (In some cases, this will mean separate contacts to whomever controls the purse strings.)

I recommend that you ask detailed questions, such as:

Do you have a back-up generator, and how many days of fuel do you keep on hand? What is your contingency plan to implement before that fuel runs out?

Can you continue to operate without grid power? If not, then what contingency plans do you have?

Is the city's water supply gravity fed, from end to end? If not, then what contingency plans have been put in place to provide water to utility customers, in the event of a grid power interruption longer than 48 hours?

And ask:

Are electrically-pumped filters used, or traditional gravity filters?

Then, if you discover that the water system is mostly via gravity, but it uses electric pumps only for pressurized filtration, then ask: If electrically-pumped filters are used, then has a disaster contingency waiver been established with the USEPA, (for turbidity and other standards), to allow bypassing of filters in the event of a grid-down emergency situation?

Similarly detailed letters or phone inquiries should be made to your local irrigation district, your fire department, power utility, phone companies (both cellular and land line), refinery, hospital, kidney dialysis clinic, coal mine, National Guard, grocery store, et cetera.

Do not expect the grid to magically stay up and running, Assume the worst case, and plan accordingly.

OBTW, one key word to search for when estimating the resiliency of your community's infrastructure is co-generation. Find out where the co-gen plants are, and their capacity!

« Economics and Investing: |Main| Controlling Pain Where There is No Doctor, by Bill R. »

Saturday July 25 2009

Letter Re: Power Failure Alarms

James;
I need your advice. I am worried about power failures, and even EMP while I'm sleeping. This could take out my security system, and leave my family vulnerable. Is there any sort of device that'll alert me if the power goes out? Thanks, - Nolan S.

JWR Replies: There are fairly inexpensive commercially-made plug-in power failure alarms available via mail order for under $15. (Or under $20 each at larger home improvement stores.) I recommend buying one for each bedroom, and one for your generator house. (The 86 dB alarm is not loud enough to be heard from far away, but having a light on for you at your generator house on a dark, snowy night is a very welcome sight!) Needless to say, these are a must for sleep apnea patients that use a CPAP machine, or for anyone else that uses other 120 VAC medical devices for chronic health issues. These alarms work fine for houses with grid power, or for houses with backup generators. (The alarm will trip before an auto-start backup generator kicks in.) If you have a grid-tied alternative energy system, you would of course need to plug one of these into an outlet that is exclusively grid-powered. If you live off-grid, you won't have any way of knowing, but then again, if your level of concern for such an event will probably be minimal.

If your specific concern is a power failure in the event of EMP, then you could always wire up a battery-powered traditional buzzer with a "normally closed" relay. (When the grid power is disconnected, the relay closes, and energizes the DC buzzer circuit.) That is 1920s-era technology that would be EMP proof.

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Friday July 24 2009

Shoot or Don't Shoot--Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life, by Jeff R.

It doesn’t have to be TEOTWAWKI for a person to be faced with the choice of shoot or don’t shoot. Everyday in the United States a police officer somewhere makes that choice (sometimes they choose “don’t shoot”). All too often, average Joe or Jane Citizen must make that choice. Hopefully dear reader, that day will never come for you, but if it does, here are a few things to help you not hesitate when necessity requires that you pull the trigger, and to help you live with the consequences.

Decide now that you will shoot another person if it becomes necessary. Pondering the morality, worrying about the legal ramifications, hoping you’re making the right decision--these are all tasks that should be resolved now, before the time comes to shoot. There is no way around the cold, hard fact that launching a copper-jacketed ball of lead into another person’s torso will cause serious bodily injury or death. Not to be harsh, but that is the whole point of the exercise. Resolve these issues now:

What are the legal justifications where I live for taking a human life? More importantly, what reasons are not legally justified?

Self-defense, defense of others, and defense of property are generally accepted to be valid reasons for using deadly force (use caution in some jurisdictions with the defense of property). In Texas, most law enforcement agencies won’t blink when a citizen kills an intruder or an attacker. The Texas Penal Code even has an affirmative defense for the use of deadly force to prevent the consequences of theft after nightfall. Know the laws concerning the use of deadly force where you live. Don’t just know about them--know them. If you are unclear about the meaning of the laws, ask your district attorney’s office--or better yet--your state’s Attorney General’s office. Often the AG of a state will have already published opinions on these issues. Asking a police officer may seem like a good idea, but they have different justifications for using deadly force, and citing one officer’s opinion is not likely to dissuade prosecution. For example, a police officer can appeal to the court decision of Tennessee vs. Garner after shooting a fleeing felon, but you probably will not be able to use that justification with success.

Another benefit of consulting the district attorney’s office with your questions about deadly force is that it is the district attorney’s office that decides who gets prosecuted and who does not. A shooting that occurs with reasonable legal justification that is further supported by the legal opinions of the district attorney’s office would be an unlikely candidate for prosecution (YMMV). Here again, know you local laws well. Familiarity with temperament of local law enforcement and the district attorney’s office concerning the use of deadly force by a private citizen is also helpful. The observations and opinions of individual law enforcement officers is a good place to get this information.

If you are involved in a shooting and it appears there may be an official inquiry, forget flashy, emotional phrases that uninformed people throw around, such as “shoot-to-kill,” “shoot-to-wound,” or “shoot-to” anything. Facts, not flash, will win the day. You didn’t shoot to do anything other than to stop the action and end the danger to yourself and your family. The old shoot-to-kill question is a trap that has been used on police officers in court; “if you shot to kill, why could you not shoot-to-wound?” Anybody familiar with defense shooting knows that close quarters shootings involve little more than shoving the gun at the target and firing. Likewise, nobody involved in a shooting has the luxury of time to ponder nonsense questions like the above.

What are the reasons I personally believe are justification for taking a human life?

Your own life and limb, and that of your family are givens--at least they should be. I doubt any reader of this blog has an issue with that. Deadly force to prevent theft--even though it may be legal--will likely present a moral dilemma. I would not kill to prevent the theft of my car stereo. In my mind, that is not a reasonable use of force. Somebody trying to steal supplies vital to my family’s survival is another issue. Now a simple theft has become a potential threat to my family, and deadly force becomes a reasonable option. Know your personal boundaries in the use of deadly force as well as you know the laws that govern its use.

What are my religious convictions or personal concerns about killing?

I can only speak to this issue as it relates to Christians, although any moral person must wrestle with these questions and come to their own conclusions. When the time comes to shoot, understand that:

1. Your target made the choice that has placed them in your gun sights.

They understood the dangers and ramifications of their scheme before they did it. They are expecting you‑‑their potential victim--to be too weak, frightened, or morally conflicted to resist with violence. Disappoint their expectations.

2. By killing them, you are not sending them to Hell.

They have made their life choices that have brought them to this moment. God is the judge--he will decide their eternal fate. You are simply deciding that your fate and the fate of your family are not to die at this person’s hand. Contrast your concern for this person with this biblical admonition to the head of the household: “But if any provide not for his own, and specially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith, and is worse than an infidel.” (I Timothy 5:8). “Provide,” as it is used here, means more than just bringing home the bacon. It encompasses all facets of provision--food, shelter, and safety. It means literally, “to take thought for; to care for.” One of your Christian duties to your family is security.

3. Killing is not always murder.

God of the Old Testament who issued the commandment “Thou shalt not murder” also instructed the Israelites to kill many times during their conquest of the Promise Land. Many righteous people of the Old Testament drew blood. As odd as this may sound, righteousness and killing are not mutually exclusive. And while one may choose to debate its meaning, I interpret Jesus’ instructions to the disciples in Luke 22 to sell their cloaks and purchase swords as divine justification for the deadly force option in self-defense.

4. Having to kill is a traumatic experience.

Should you have to make the choice to shoot, be prepared for the emotional turmoil that will inevitably follow. If it isn’t TEOTWAWKI, seek out counseling if necessary to work through the trauma. Whether it is TEOTWAWKI or not, remember that at the time you made your decision to shoot it was a clear-cut issue, and you acted decisively. Second-guessing yourself will only add to the turmoil. Reflect on the positives--you saved your life and the lives of your family or other innocents. Defense of the weak or defenseless is a noble thing. Don’t beat yourself up. By preparing for the worst ahead of time, you can find peace after making one of the hardest decisions a human being can be forced to make.

About the Author: Jeff R. has bachelor's degree in Pastoral Ministry, and has served as a youth pastor/associate pastor at churches in two states. He has also served for several years as a law enforcement officer and is now emplyoed by a major metropolitan police department in Texas.

« Letter Re: Some Crucial Readiness: Preparing for Joy |Main| Shoot or Don't Shoot--Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life, by Jeff R. »

Letter Re: The Quasi-Reality Television Show "The Colony"

James,
Last night was the first episode of a survival reality show on The Discovery Channel, 'The Colony', It is a 10-week experiment illustrating how 10 people cope with life after a biological wipe-out. They started with the first six participants being sleep deprived for 30 hours, then "raiding" a department store for whatever they can find before engaging in an eight mile walk through the Los Angeles River [--now a concrete aqueduct, which is dry most of each year--] to find an abandoned factory marked "Sanctuary".

The show did illustrate how most of us who are unprepared will fail to secure needed materials, delegate responsibilities, and chose a defensible location. But the first episode did show how a bit of cleverness can go a long way at times.

I suggest all of those that can watch the show, do so. It may show us what not to do as well as give food for thought so far as our own survival plans. - Eric

JWR Replies: While the show probably has some redeeming value, I have a few concerns from the very outset. (But keep in mind that thusfar I've only seen some brief previews and clips):

1.) The show depicts a small number of people surviving in a relatively resource-rich environment, in a simulation of the aftermath of a devastating pandemic. This is something akin to the movie I Am Legend (a remake of the now very dated 1971 movie The Omega Man), or both incarnations of the BBC Survivors television series. While such a scenario might have a high quotient for drama, it is not a very likely disaster situation that we will face. In fact, the greatest likelihood will be just the opposite: a large number of people surviving in a resource-poor environment. It is the latter that typifies natural disasters. Is it realistic to think that in a grid-down disaster, that everyone will have the opportunity to cart home 18 photovoltaic panels? No way!

2.) The series puts a subtle stamp of approval on looting. They just give it more acceptable names, like "scavenging" and "foraging". This might be acceptable in a very low-likelihood mega-pandemic --something approaching an extinction level event. But is it is not acceptable in the far, far more likely situation where the majority of the population is intact, and title to deeded property is likewise intact. For the show's producers to depict the former, when the latter will actually be the case in 98%+ of real-world scenarios is collective brainwashing.

3.) The series will show a group of people in an essentially tactical situation, where their lives are frequently threatened by hostile outsiders. I will be surprised to see the key military principal of Unity of Command encouraged. As is typical for "reality" shows (such as Survivor), it is assumed that the members of the audience will develop "favorite" characters, because of similarities in background or temperament. Hence, the producers employ the artifices of equality of their initial tangible property, democracy, and communistically-shared property. They seem to have votes on everything. But in the real world, when disaster strikes and desperate people are seeking to to eat you, it is hardly the time to dawdle, debate, and take numerous votes on immediate courses of action. Rather, the odds are that in a real-world disaster situation that people will take refuge at either a private home, or in a public shelter. In a private home, it will probably be the land-owner that will call the shots, while at a public shelter, it will probably be a sworn law enforcement officer--most likely a sheriff--that will coordinate manning a defense.

4.) The show only depicts a 10 week time period. Hence the participants will be able to survive entirely off the largesse of the old world. But if the scenario were more realistic, they'd be part of a much larger population that would rapidly deplete the available food supplies. So it is likely that activities like gardening would begin with the first available growing season. (Of course, in southern California, the growing "season" is practically year-round. There, it is water availability that would be the key issue. In a grid-down collapse, sans electrically-pumped water, the region would rapidly revert to desert.)

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Thursday July 23 2009

Three Letters Re: The Simple Reality of EMP -- Different Than You Might Expect

Dear JWR,
I read the EMP article by Andru and thought it very well done with one minor correction in the power generation area (worked in the nuclear power industry for 20 years before changing careers). The EMP E3 pulse is very dangerous to the transformers in the transmission and distribution system, and hydro-electric and nuclear will also be severely affected. Commercial generators of any output run at 8,000-10,000 volts which is fed immediately to step up transformers to feed the transmission system. The most common voltage for the transmission system is 250,000 to 500,000 volts (3 phase) which reduces amperage and therefore reduces line losses. The power goes from the power plant through the transmission system to one of the many interchange grids which direct and control where the power is going to. The power is bought and sold in commodity markets by these interchange systems. Even if you live next to a power plant its output will go through the transmission system first, and then to a series of step down transformers in the distribution system before finally being delivered to the customer. Much of the time my home power was not supplied by the power plant I lived next to and worked at.

The transformers are the weak link. A severe solar storm can induce currents that will destroy them (this has happened). Safety interlocks may not work as the pulse can increase current too fast for the breaker to trip before the contacts get welded shut or else it can cause winding damage before it trips. As Andru says the extent of the damage will be the problem. None of the high tension step up/step down transformers are made in the US anymore. And the lead times for their manufacture are measured in years. I expect in such a scenario desperate measures will be taken to produce transformers (or repair them – very difficult and not possible if the damage is severe enough).

If we suffer an EMP attack plan for the power being off for years. I would suspect that power recover would be prioritized in the major metropolitan areas as that is where most people and industry are. The rural areas will probably be the last to be worked. This is standard operating procedure (SOP) for power restoration, you do what brings the most people back online first. - James J.

Mr. Rawles,
Mention was made in your blog of an article entitled, "EMP 101 - A Basic Primer" concerning the results of an EMP attack on the United States. The article was written by William R. Forstchen, the author of the novel One Second After.

I followed the link and read the article. For the most part it was very informative, especially the part about all modern airliners being "fly by wire" and controlled by computers. From my aviation background I know that the control surfaces of most large aircraft today are simply too large to be moved around by the pilot's own strength, as they were in aircraft designs up to the 1950s. Still, it was a graphic reminder that most large aircraft today are completely dependent on their on-board computer systems to operate. There is no "manual backup", just another spare computer system that could possibly also be damaged in an EMP incident.

But there was one section of his article discussing advance preparations to mitigate the effect of an EMP blast that I did not understand. That was the paragraph:

"An off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios by every local police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response department in the country would mean, that if then properly stored along with a large stock pile of batteries that within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running. This can not be emphasized enough, that proper communications and what the military calls "command and control," will go a long step towards maintaining public order."

I'm not quite sure what Mr. Forstchen is referring to with the term, "off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios"? If he is referring to the commonly available Family Radio Service (FRS) and General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS) walkie-talkies that use AA and AAA batteries, then he is not aware of their severe limitations. FRS radios only have 14 UHF channels and 0.5 watts of RF output power. The GMRS radios have 22 UHF channels and typically around 2 watts of RF output power.

Both radios operate on relatively low power and on UHF frequencies, a combination that will limit their effective range to a few miles typically. At best perhaps 10-miles with the higher powered 2-watt GMRS radio (don't believe the advertising hype on the package). The UHF frequencies do a better job of penetrating building walls, but they don't propagate as far as VHF signals. They provide "Line of Sight" operation - if you can see the other person in the distance, you should be able to reach them on the radio.

Based upon these obvious limitations, I don't understand where the author comes up with the statement that equipped with these consumer-grade walkie-talkies, "within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running." With their short range and limited channels, it is impossible to create a "nationwide network of communications". When used from inside a vehicle, the range of the low power FRS radio can be measured in feet! Usually the range is only a few car lengths, which makes for limited convoy use. In addition, the limited number of available radio channels will ensure a pandemonium of signals and the resulting radio gridlock reminiscent of the peak of CB radio activity in the late 1970s. This is especially true when you realize that every man, woman, and child could potentially be attempting to communicate on these same channels with their personally owned FRS or GMRS radio. The public service functions will no longer be operating on radio frequencies reserved and licensed exclusively for their use.

If the author is referring to the purchase of additional two-way radios of the type already in use by police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response departments, then he is unaware of how they operate. Most "business band" or "professional" hand held radios have a RF output of 5-to7 watts. They are still limited in range by their inefficient "rubber duckie" flexible antenna, frequency band, and power output. The only reason they seem to operate so well over many miles of varied terrain is because of the supporting infrastructure, mainly the radio repeater system. The radio repeater extends the range of the low powered hand held radios by retransmitting their signal [typically] from a mountaintop repeater site. A network of repeater stations located on high terrain can vastly improve the coverage of a hand held radio, providing excellent range throughout a county or even an entire state depending on the size and extent of the repeater network.

Unfortunately, the weak link in all of the radio systems used by public service agencies is their radio repeater system. With all the repeater stations off the air due to EMP damage (or even a lightning strike) the entire radio network falls apart. Most public service radios are programmed to operate exclusively through the repeater system. If the repeater system is down, the radios no longer work. Sometimes a sheriff's department will have their radios programmed with a "car-to-car" channel, which is a simplex frequency where the radios transmit & receive on the same frequency (without the need for a repeater radio). But these "direct" channels are very few, and are often the only simplex channel available out of a radio system with five or more radio channels. To provide adequate coverage over a large city or county, all the normally used channels are duplex frequencies going through the radio repeater system. An additional limitation is that each public service function is limited to their specific allocated and assigned radio channels. The radios are pre-programmed by a radio technician at his shop. The radios are not field programmable by the user.

In addition to this vulnerability, professional two-way radios use rechargeable battery packs - usually Nickel-Cadmium or Nickel-Metal Hydride. The sealed battery packs are designed to work with a specific model of radio. The radios do not use AA, AAA, C, or D-cell batteries. So unless there is a back room filled with chargers and a person assigned to keep all the spare batteries charged up and rotated out of the charger at all times, there is no simple approach to having charged batteries ready to go to support a stash of spare radios. In fact, most public service agencies can barely afford the minimum number of portable radios needed to equip all their personnel. There is no budget for an additional stash of spare batteries and radios.

The only radio service I know of that has the flexibility to adapt in a "repeater down" situation is the Amateur Radio Service. Instead of specific frequencies or channels, "Ham" radio operators are allocated entire radio bands to operate on. The VHF and UHF radios used in the Amateur Radio Service can be user programmed to operate on any desired frequency within a radio band, and all will switch to simplex operation at the press of a button. Manufacturers of ham radio equipment often offer an optional alkaline battery case for use with their hand held radio models. While looking like the typical Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd) battery pack from the outside, these battery cases can be opened up and AA batteries inserted into the slots. The battery case is then attached to the radio the same way as the regular NiCd battery packs do. This allows the ham radio operator to stockpile a stash of spare AA batteries for use during an extended power outage that prevents the usual recharging of the NiCd or Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery packs.

So, unless you are a ham radio operator, expect a long delay before normal radio communications are restored. Due to the limitations and vulnerabilities of public service two-way radio networks, reestablishing a nationwide network of radio communications is going to take time. Sincerely, - Bruce C.

James:
Andru’s outlook about EMP is in part misleading. The main item that Andru got correct is that an EMP attack will be more devastating that any other attack on America. I am an engineer and have read the Critical National Infrastructures (CNI) Report and this report is based on educated opinions without large scale testing since large scale testing has not been performed due to banning of nuclear testing. Localized EMP testing generally wipes out the electronics depending on how close the EMP generator is to the electronic equipment. It is all supposition as to the amount of damage that an EMP attack will create but it is know from a nuclear weapon test in 1962 that was 800 miles from Hawaii and the EMP created damage to Hawaii even with the minor amount of [microcircuit] electronics existing at that time. Think what the damage would happen in our electronics world of today.

Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse by Jerry Emanuelson: "Although nuclear EMP was known since the earliest days of nuclear weapons testing, the magnitude of the effects of nuclear EMP were not known until a 1962 test of a thermonuclear weapon in space called the Starfish Prime test. The Starfish Prime test knocked out some of the electrical and electronic components in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away.

When the 1.44 megaton W49 thermonuclear warhead detonated at an altitude of 248.5 miles (399 km), it made no sound. There was a very brief and very bright white flash in the sky that witnesses described as being like a huge flashbulb going off in the sky. The flash could be easily seen even through the overcast sky at Kwajalein Island, about 2,000 km. to the west-southwest.

In a phenomenon unrelated to the EMP, the radiation cloud from the Starfish Prime test subsequently destroyed at least five United States satellites and one Soviet satellite. The most well-known of the satellites was Telstar I, the world's first active communications satellite. Telstar I was launched the day after the Starfish Prime test, and it did make a dramatic demonstration of the value of active communication satellites with live trans-Atlantic television broadcasts before it orbited through radiation produced by Starfish Prime (and other subsequent nuclear tests in space). Telstar I was damaged by the radiation cloud, and failed completely a few months later.

EMP is a potentially massive, severe problem that can essentially devastate our nation. America as we know it can not survive even a moderate EMP attack. Society will collapse.

The EMP pulse flows through the air at the speed of light until it hits antennas, power lines, cabling, etc. then the pulse flows through this cabling at the speed of light into the electronic equipment and the electronics fail.

[Here is a roughly analogous event that is illustrative:] Our television cable system was struck by lighting and all electronics that were on and all electronics that were off and that were connected to the TV cable were fried. Similarly, EMP will fry any unprotected electronics. The only way to protect your electronics is to have the equipment inside an adequately grounded Faraday cage (metal box) that does not have power or cabling running into it. Your electronics that are not in use should be stored in a grounded Faraday cage everyday.

Even if repair parts for your electronics were available, how would you obtain the repair parts since there will be no mail or transportation services. If you have an auto that still runs after and EMP attack, the last thing that you will wish to do is take your vehicle out and show everyone that you have an operating vehicle.

We are acquiring extra [CPU] "brains" for our diesels and SUVs. We also are acquiring carbureted vehicles.

Even if an EMP strike only caused the death of 10% or our population (30 million citizens) just how do you survive this as a nation? Prepare for EMP and pray that it does not happen.

Analysis:
Severity of potential failures: From least to greatest [Some causative details and conjecture deleted by JWR, for brevity]

1. Swine Flu – World Wide – Population loss 1 to 10% – could trigger Item Number 3.

2. Civil War – America – Population loss of up to 40% – could trigger Item Number 3.

3. Financial Collapse – World Wide – Population loss up to 40%. Loss of 50+ years of progress. Will probably lead to nuclear war or EMP strike. No economy remains.

4. EMP Attack – America – Population loss of up to 80% - No economy remains.

5. Nuclear War – World Wide – Population loss up to 60%. No economy remains.

Regards, - TD

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Wednesday July 22 2009

Six Letters Re: Self-Sufficiency in England? Take the Gap

Hello Mr. Rawles,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my previous e-mail. I must confess your original post on your blog and your reply left me feeling somewhat bothered and a little defensive. I have been mulling this over all day and deep down I know the reason why, it's because you are absolutely 100% right.

My wife who makes my world go round could not leave her family, my son who has special needs is receiving very specialist care locally, my community, friends and neighbours who have worked this land for generations rely on me for support and will come to rely on my specialist skills come TEOTWAWKI. This is the hand of cards I have been dealt, idealistic young fool I may be, but I cannot abandon my family, friends and country.

There may be a die-off, there may be wars, unspeakable hardships and suffering but I have to do the best I can for all my people and for the sake of our country,a country that may be currently on the skids but it is still a country that generations of our fathers, brothers and sons have fought and toiled for.

I could be just as easily shot and killed as an outsider in New Zealand, Belize, or Idaho come TEOTWAWKI, if I am going to meet my maker I would rather do it with the respect of myself and my loved ones, knowing that I did not abandon them in their hour of need.

Keep up the good work Mr. Rawles, I will continue to read and enjoy your blog. - Handyman

Sir,
Having been an avid reader of your superb blog from the very beginning, I would like to thank you and all the contributors for an invaluable resource. It’s my computer’s homepage and is the first thing read every day.

Your forecast for the probable scenario post-TEOTWAWKI, or even mini-TEOTWAWKI seems pretty accurate, although the population figure you give [for England] is out-of-date. As of mid-2007 we were at almost 61,000,000 and counting. Soon to be standing room only, it seems. [JWR Adds: Just to clarify, the population of all of the UK was 61 million in 2007. Wikipedia says 51 million is the correct figure for just England.]

So I was right with the 51 million figure. The only good news is that if you consider Scotland, the population density for the entirety of the UK is much lower. Not that Scotland has the most agreeable climate. I'll update that letter accordingly.

Despite living in as near to the middle of nowhere as is possible in these crowded isles, my family and I have been planning our G.O.O.D. from the UK for some time. I’m happy to say that the new place [in the Mediterranean region] is now up and running and we are spending 50% of our time there, (soon to be 100%).

Some things we learned during our relocation exercise:

· It seems, if the television programmes on the subject are to be believed, that some people, after a two-week trip to some exotic location, decide on the spur of the moment to move there – and do just that. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that falls under the ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’ caveat, aka the ‘P7’ rule. Please, please, please, think it through and do your research.

· Where ever you may roam, you take yourself there. Sit yourselves down and think deeply about what you want to do, where you want to go, what you want when you get there, and what you will need to make it happen. If you are running away from something, don’t be surprised if you find it at the end of your journey, sat waiting for you. Running towards something on the other hand..

· I cannot stress this enough: Do your homework. This applies if you are relocating to the next county or the other side of the world. Do not be seduced by picturesque views and/or sales talk. One of the nicest locations we saw on a previous move has appeared on national (UK) television many times; sadly, due to its propensity to flooding several times a year. Fortunately we had looked into it and bought higher ground, elsewhere. The Internet is your friend here, but does not remove the need for feet on the ground and genuine field research.

· Once you’ve identified your chosen location, do yet more research and find the right spot. I will not preach to the choir about the need for fertile soil, water, politics, etc, but would say, as we found to our cost, that sometimes people can be mistaken in their beliefs, if not downright economical with the truth. Check your information, then check it again. It cost us in the region of 5,000 Euros and counting for failing to check an item.

· Allow a realistic timescale for your move. Our (hopefully) ultimate G.O.O.D. exercise involved a change of country, for which we had allowed five years to achieve. It’s going on seven now and whilst installed, we are still commuting internationally and hoping not to get caught up in the Swine Flu snafu whilst in transit. It’s not all been bad news though, the delay has allowed time to improve language skills and inventory, and my good lady has developed a fearsomely accurate eye with her new Benelli. (Sadly, Messrs. Mossberg & Remington are hard to come by out at our location, but the Italian job is a nice, if expensive alternative). It is also pleasing to know that ownership of same does not make one automatically suspect in the eyes of the law or the local politically correct set (whom, I am glad to report, have not found their way here yet).

· Be aware, be very aware that even a short move can result in you finding yourself in a much different culture. This is as true of village/small-town life as it is if you change countries. Be prepared for things being done differently. Many countries prefer the mañana philosophy to the Protestant Work Ethic and this can be incredibly frustrating for some. I personally know of several wannabe ‘GOODers’ who have given up in sight of the finish line due to their inability or unwillingness to adapt to local conditions. If you cannot or will not adapt, then please, stay where you are. (I appreciate this sentiment doesn’t generally apply to ‘our type’ of folk, but if you prefer to be dreamer, save yourself a lot of hassle and money, just don’t..). Similarly, many of these out of the way locations reputedly use the ‘small brown envelope’ method of getting things done. I cannot of course possibly comment on this, but YMMV.

· Render unto Caesar.. This probably should go under the ‘culture’ paragraph, but I think it’s worthy of its own piece. You might not fully understand local bureaucracy – indeed if in a foreign country, with a different language, you probably never will, but it is no excuse in the eyes of the law. If nothing else, find out how, when and where to pay your taxes – and make sure you do. I am told the impound lot for our location is literally full to overflowing with foreign vehicles because owners neglected to pay local taxes on them. (And this is a small, rural location). Remember, the nail that stands out gets hammered down and one presumes under the current financial conditions that this can only get worse. It’s bad enough to lose your pick-up, but your home?

So far, the move has proven the right thing to do. We are totally off-grid and re-learning the joys of septics, generators and, until the well is bored, tanked water.

High on the list is a solar PV set up. We could have held off moving till this was installed, but decided that being there was the number one priority. Given the climate, electricity is not a priority here in the summer, except perhaps for ice and the winters are typically much milder than the UK, so we feel our genset will more than suffice for the time being.

Getting used to the new way of life is fun and challenging at the same time. One thing we have found, is that working full-time in the summer sun of the southern Mediterranean is very different than sitting on a sunbed sipping a beer! Perhaps the man who invented the siesta was not so crazy after all.

In conclusion, if you do decide to take the gap, be aware that it’s not something to do lightly, but it can be done and is more than worth the effort. - Michael

Jim,
As the only military-experienced "beans, bullets and band aids"-type survivalist who shows up at the local weekly Peak Oil meetings, I can say there's a lot of Transition Town stuff going on. It spun-off from Post-Peak Oil groups.

I made the effort to avoid all the Transition Town stuff a long time ago. It mostly consists of retirement age hippies-turned-yuppies-turned-retirees, trying to be do-gooders. I'm just a fellow Army intel guy who's done his own extensive research with regards to Peak Oil (to include fusion between various sources, researchers, etc.), and have been prepping accordingly. After all, we did hit the global peak in liquid fuels extraction in June, 2008. Judging from the shape of this peak mathematically, in addition to the plateau we've been at (there have been a lot of head-fakes since 2005), along with the continuing depletion rates of the current 54 oil fields around the planet that are now in decline (source: TheOilDrum.com), this one looks for real (some are politically intentional slow-downs in production, I have to admit).

I've noticed that all the transition town types have no preps to speak of, and are clueless about preparedness in general, and "don't believe in survivalism".

"We're all going to sing kumbaya in our little communities (which only exist in their minds, BTW) and grow cute little green things, but we're not going to store anything" (one of them even had the audacity to ask me about getting a firearm. Again, I mainly hooked-up with Post-Peak Oil in order to learn how to grow food organically, and have learned a lot, and made some good friends). I have to admit though, that the movement has been growing in the US.

There's a certain British Transition Town expert who has been assisting Post-Peak Oil in this area, and I've asked him specifically, "Does Totnes actually feed itself?" Does Totnes generate its own electrical power?" I've never gotten a straight answer from him, just "well, kind of, sort of, not yet..."

Then what exactly is a Transition town? I'm going to be making sure my friends from Post-Peak Oil get your post.

Keep-up the good work. My wife was part of Book Bomb Day, back in April: One copy for me, one for her father: An old, Mel Tappan type, who had not even previously known about SurvivalBlog. - J.E.

Hello From Ireland,
My wife and I were delighted to see the article on England and your advise to leave for more lightly populated areas of the globe.

Things in England might be bad but here in Ireland things are worse. The economy is in tatters, taxes are being raised, people are advised to avoid getting pregnant because of swine flu. There are talks of keeping schools closed after the summer holidays to avoid the spread of the swine flu so that a vaccine program can be administered, even though we all know there isn't a vaccine available yet. The
unemployment rate is 12% and our brilliant Government inform us it will go to 20%.

The population density is 180/sq mile, knife and gun laws are unbelievable ( I have been waiting six months for a license for a .22 rifle even though I have no criminal record and served three years in the Reserve Defence Force performing security details several times at a major airport with a weapon loaded with live ammunition) sad to say it is possible to get a gun illegally within 24 hours. Pistols are now illegal, because the drug gangs were shooting each other with pistols, despite the fact that no one was ever killed with a legally held pistol. The gang crime here is at level comparable to what was seen in [cities in] the USA in the 1970s. Our Police are retiring at a rate of 45 per month (the maximum size of the force was 12,000) and because of the recession they are not being replaced with recruits, and best of all a Government report advises the closure of half of the country's Police Stations.

My American Wife and myself (Irish) are making plans to get the hell out of Dodge we are looking at Northern Scandinavia as the best option for a place to escape before it all goes very bad here. There are several other Irish people who think the same as ourselves and are making their own escape plans. We would welcome your comments on our choice of location. - INNUKSUK Survival, County Limerick, Ireland.

Jim,
Although I very much agree that UK residents should, if possible, move overseas, I nonetheless believe that due to financial, residency requirements and other reasons, not everyone will be able to leave the UK to relocate in America, NZ or elsewhere. For those people, there remains the option of what I believe is one of the best retreat locations within the European Union: north of the Great Glen in Scotland. Specifically, I view the lower lying (farmable) terrain along the west coast and islands as being best suited to this purpose.

The benefits are, from my various sorties to study the region:

1. One of lowest population densities in western Europe.

2. Both distance (by UK standards!) and formidable mountainous barriers between the region and the large urban centers of Glasgow, Edinburgh and the east coast. Its isolation reduces its allure as a target for roaming urbanite gangs, a point even more applicable to the likes of [The Isle of] Skye which, during the days of the conflicts between the Lords of the Isles and the Stewarts, was so shielded by the Highlands wilderness that the king had to send his fleet from the east coast around the north of Scotland to attack them by sea. Even on the Great Britain mainland, the Knoydart region has no road access from the rest of Scotland; it can only be reached by 2 day hike or by sea. Something to bear in mind in a modern grid down scenario.

3. A largely conservative indigenous population, quietly distrustful of modern ways.

4. There are numerous small semi self-reliant communities dotted throughout the region, many of which are used to taking in idealist outsiders seeking refuge from the madding crowds.

5. Whereas the interior of the Highlands can have very severe winters with prolonged periods of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, the lower portions of the west coast are relieved by mild Atlantic currents providing a lenient maritime microclimate.

6. A hunting and outdoors culture. There are so many red deer in the region now that some locals are calling for the wolf to be reintroduced to reduce their numbers.

On the down side:

1. Isolation comes at a price; in good weather, it can take the best part of two hours to get to Inverness or Fort William from the west coast or [from the Isle of] Skye. In winter, you may have to wait longer until a storm ends or a snow plow comes along. Bad news if you need urgent medical treatment which, for now, can be circumvented by emergency helicopter missions undertaken by the military.

2. Strict Reformed Christians, who are considerable in number in the region, frown upon many activities that outsiders take for granted; for instance, their observance of the Sunday Sabbath in some cases compels them to pull a chair from the table rather than push it away, as the former mode is seen as less like work than the latter. So digging your garden or hanging clothes on a line on a Sunday would be a good way to alienate them. On the other hand, their lax attitude towards alcohol consumption will surprise teetotaling Christians from outside.

3. There is an undercurrent of lingering resentment towards the English who are still blamed for the infamous Highland Clearances. There is perhaps an outside chance of the odd Englishman becoming the local "expendable gringo" come TEOTWAWKI.

4. The quality of the soil is generally not great, although it is nonetheless possible with assistance from compost to grow a considerable amount of vegetables. Sturdy stock fencing is a must, due to the deer menace. Also, I am told that eagles account for high losses in spring lambs.

5. Self sufficient farming comes under a lot of petty scrutiny from over eager bureaucrats; for instance, it is illegal to help someone else butcher livestock on their holding; you can only do it to your own cattle on your own land.

6. And of course, like the rest of the UK, gun ownership is insanely regulated.

7. Scottish law and conveyancing practices are alien to those in the rest of the UK. Also, property prices tend to be very high, as are property taxes. I know someone who left the Highland to live in France because he couldn't bear the property taxes.

8. Summertime sees the area swamped with hillwalkers and tourists from all over Europe, many of whom are drawn to the quaint coastal communities and who may note ongoing self-sufficiency preparations for later reference.

Overall then, it's very far from perfect but nevertheless presents perhaps an emergency, last minute kind of option for those who don't think they have the wherewithal to make a bigger jump.

Finally, [for an illustration of the high population density,] see the photos of Europe from space at night. Kind regards, - Jay W.

Mr. Rawles,
Greetings from England. Having read "Patriots" from cover to cover many times and long been a devotee of your blog I do regard you as being one of the foremost experts in the world of preparation for TEOTWAWKI situations. However, I do have some queries with some points on your recent article regarding a SHTF situation in England.

While I appreciate that for some people it is the best option to emigrate, what practical advice would you have for people who emigration would not be possible? We are part of a well armed (many shotguns, Deer stalking rifles, .22 LRs, crossbows, compound bows etc.) rural community, that even with our climate produces more food than we could ever eat, in a defendable location, many locals are ex-military and our population is sufficient that there could be workers and soldiers.

Regarding moving abroad, Is not one of the golden rules of survival not to become a refugee or an outsider? It can take a long time to fully integrate into a community and be accepted, I believe that the threat of TEOTWAWKI is upon us now and in many places we would be regarded as "outsiders" or "foreigners". Belize was one of the options you put forward as a possible place to emigrate to, having worked for 18 months all over Belize I know enough about the people, the crime level, the corruption and the various factions to know that maybe that is not the best idea in the world. In a SHTF scenario there is not enough British troops there to protect it's interests and Belize is quite low down on the British Governments list of priorities.

Your advice and thoughts would be appreciated. - Handyman

JWR Replies: Your town might be the exception to the rule. One key question: How many miles from a major city is your town, and is it on a major highway? Or is it "off the beaten track" , away from refugee lines of drift? That could make a crucial difference in whether or not your town would be overwhelmed by refugees in a societal collapse.

Another consideration is counting the roads into the town. If you are fortunate, the geography will be favorable, limiting the avenues of approach. But in open farming country, there are usually numerous access roads. In a worst case scenario, how many roadblocks would have to be manned? Think through the number of defenders that would be required to maintain 24/7/360 security.

I only mentioned "...or perhaps Belize" for folks that already have friends or relatives that live there, and that you preferably already speak Spanish. Granted, you'd be considered an outsider, but Belize still has a very class-conscious society. Because of this, land owners--regardless of their origin--are generally held in esteem. I'd be more worried about criminals crossing the porous border with Guatemala, than about your next door neighbors.

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Tuesday July 21 2009

The Simple Reality of EMP -- Different Than You Might Expect, by Andru

One topic I have paid close attention to for the past 10 years has been our nation’s risk to Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP). There are a few points I would like to make that are often overlooked—mostly dealing with the magnitude of the threat. I don’t claim to be an expert on the subject, but I have consumed as much information as possible that doesn’t delve into the high-level physics—the kind of knowledge required to truly be an expert. What may set me apart the most is the simple fact that I actually read the 181 page Critical National Infrastructures (CNI) Report released in April of 2008 and in my opinion, it has shed more light on the subject of EMP effects than any other research conducted since EMPs were first discovered more than 60 years ago.

Had this information been available a few years earlier to authors like William R. Forstchen in his novel One Second After would have likely painted a different picture of the effects of an EMP and how it would impact a society. His lessons are still valid, but a little more accurate information can have a huge impact on our preparation decisions.

Anatomy of an EMP:
Among the most commonly listed elements that determine the magnitude of an EMP, one deserves special emphasis and that is altitude. In most discussions, altitude is correctly identified as a significant factor in EMP effectiveness as a weapon but there are two distinct reasons why altitude is so important. The first and most obvious is the LOS (line of sight) influence of electromagnetic pulse. The higher you go, the greater distance the pulse can affect across the curved surface of the Earth. However, the point that most people don’t understand is the impact the atmosphere has upon the strength of an EMP. Logic would suggest that the closer you get to an EMP, the greater the impact upon sensitive electronic equipment. This is not necessarily the case and this is why a high altitude detonation not only increases the range of the EMP, but actually increases the magnitude as well.

An EMP is actually created when gamma particles from a nuclear explosion interact with the earth’s atmosphere at a sufficient altitude to cause a uniform disturbance in the earth’s magnetic field. It is the fluctuations of the earth’s magnetic field that causes the EMP and not the nuclear explosion itself. If the detonation occurs within the earth atmosphere, the gamma particles are absorbed by the air before creating a significant enough fluctuation in the earth’s magnetic field. Generally speaking, a detonation within the earth’s atmosphere will not produce a significant EMP beyond the actual radius of the nuclear blast. In other words, the radiation will kill you before the EMP fries your I-pod.

To be most effective, the detonation needs to be outside the earth’s atmosphere—even higher than the International Space Station and many satellites. This allows the gamma rays to interact with the earth’s atmosphere (and magnetic field) over a broad area at roughly the exact same time.

We could spend time discussing the three different types of EMPs generated by a nuclear detonation (E1, E2, & E3), but suffice it to say that E1 tends to quickly damage sensitive electronics, E2 is slower and not so much of a threat with modern fuses and surge protectors, and E3 is slow but massive and turns the earth’s magnetic field and any long continuous conductors (long-distance power lines) into a huge electrical generator—overpowering surge protection and destroying connected transformer equipment on either end of the line. Individuals tend to be concerned with the E1 pulse and infrastructure professionals tend to be concerned with the E3 pulse.

Consumer Technology Risks:
Most people think that anything with a computer chip will be wiped out by an EMP attack. The findings of the commission who produced the CNI Report actually prove otherwise. While the most sensitive equipment almost always failed, the failure was sometimes resolved with a re-boot, or with the replacement of a few damaged parts. Due to the unpredictability of the EMP effects, we can assume that many televisions and radios would still work and public broadcasting capabilities of one degree or another will likely be available—if not immediately, then shortly after an event for as long as power can be supplied for the broadcast. This can also be attributed to the fact that the strength of the EMP will vary from one place to another. For example, the further north you travel, the more intense the earth’s magnetic field and resulting EMP. You could expect the impact felt in New York would be more intense than that of Atlanta.

According to the CNI Report, modern automobiles are not nearly as susceptible to EMP as previously thought. It seems that while equipment and circuitry has become more sensitive, manufacturers have also beefed up the shielding on these components to reduce electromagnetic interference from non-EMP sources thus reducing susceptibility to an actual EMP. According to the report, only 10% of the vehicles on the road will stop functioning even temporarily after an EMP and one third of all vehicles won’t even suffer any nuisance failures such as a blown fuse or damaged radio (pg. 115 of the report). The risk here is still significant, but mostly overstated when compared to other risks. For instance, we’ve all seen what one accident does to rush-hour traffic. Now imagine 10% of the cars on the road shutting down at the same time—accidents would result and gridlock would be intense on the major highways—stranding even those with operable vehicles. But if your car was parked at work at the time of an EMP, chances are you would be able to start your car and at least attempt to drive home.

What are the Real Risks:
To put it simply, there are really two big threats we face as a society when it comes to EMPs. The first involves the entire electric grid as long-distance power lines convert the slower E3 pulse into extremely high-voltage power surges. These surges subsequently blow out transformers at either end of the lines and render the grid virtually useless until these custom-designed transformers can be repaired or replaced. Based upon the current rate of production for these transformers worldwide, it would take 20 years to replace all the high-capacity transformers in the US power grid (see report pg 49). Now imagine the difficulties of trying to make these repairs in a society that has collapsed.

The other significant threat posed by EMP lies in a commonly used automated control system called supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA). In essence, SCADA systems are similar your typical computer except that they are designed for specific uses—such as monitoring and controlling our electric grid, telecommunications infrastructure, oil and gas transmission lines, and even our water treatment plants. Under the testing conducted by the EMP Commission, every SCADA system failed to one degree or another (see report pg. 6). While some failures might be as simple to fix as rebooting, others would permanently disable a particular control unit. Taken together at the exact same time, this combination of minor and major failures becomes catastrophic to whatever infrastructure these SCADA units control.

The Reality of a Post-EMP Attack:
Obviously, the risks to our electrical and utility infrastructures are sufficient to categorize an EMP attack as TEOTWAWKI. However, the picture painted by most EMP alarmists doesn’t do us any favors as we consider our own personal preparations. I’m convinced that many preparations are either completely ignored, or resources are allocated in less-effective ways because we haven’t focused clearly on what a post-EMP society will look like.

First of all, the lights will likely go out; and for most of the grid they will stay out for a long time. However, most of the cars we drive will keep working with minor electrical problems. Most gas-powered generators will start up, and as long as the back-up power supply holds out, we might even have land-line and perhaps even cell phone telecommunications. If service stations have back-up power generation, then gas will still be pumping (plan on paying with cash though) until the tanks run dry. A national priority will be getting the gasoline distribution lines back up and running and with back-up power at key points, this could be accomplished in a matter of weeks or months. If we can get the gasoline flowing, then harvesting equipment will work, the food supply will begin flowing again, and crews will be able to repair the electrical grid.

Don’t get me wrong, an EMP attack would be catastrophic and would probably be the worst attack ever to affect our nation. Millions would die as a result, but I don’t expect it to be the end-game that some make it out to be. It should be entirely survivable for a well-informed and well-prepared groups and individuals.

Lessons for Preppers:
Preparing for an EMP can be overwhelming—especially when one fully grasps our reliance upon technology. Few of us are in a position to buy and move to a resource-rich piece of farmland and then be able to plow, plant, and harvest a decent crop with nothing but 19th century farm implements. The good news is that even after an EMP, society may remain intact—at least initially. And just like we see in the novel Patriots, some areas of the country can be expected to escape societal collapse indefinitely. For those of us who can’t relocate to a retreat property, the proper selection of our current residence can play a significant role in how we might fare after an EMP attack. Here are some considerations:

Do you know where your power comes from? How far does it travel before it gets to you? Hydroelectric, nuclear, and wind -powered generators will likely be back online soon and have enough supplied fuel to run indefinitely. If you live close enough to one of these, then less equipment needs to be repaired before getting your town or city back online.
Do you know where your water comes from? How much treatment is required to make it suitable for human consumption? Those living in mountainous areas will likely see minimal impact to their water supply after an EMP. Fresh gravity-fed water usually requires less chemical treatment and no electrical pumps to fill water storage tanks. Those living in flat areas and who rely upon treated river or ground water pumped into water towers will likely suffer the most from water shortages after an EMP. Hygiene-related diseases will spread quickly; and if you also happen to live in a relatively dry climate, then dehydration deaths will soar as well.
Do you know where your gasoline comes from? Do you live close to a refinery, or does your fuel come from a combination of pipelines and tanker trucks. If you live close to a major gas pipeline terminal then your location will likely be better supplied than areas located off the main trunk lines. Refining capacity will be limited and gasoline will be rationed, but expect those towns closest to the source to be in better shape than those further away and to be among the first areas where order is restored—if lost.
Do you know where your food comes from and could your area be food self-sufficient if needed? Those living on the fringes of America’s bread basket will be better off than those living in the large cities on the East Coast. Your grocery store has about three days worth of food without an EMP and about three hours worth of food with an EMP. Regional food distribution warehouses carry about 30 days worth of food—much of which is dependent upon refrigeration. Do you know how close you live to one of these regional warehouses? Living close to the regional food distribution centers could buy you and your town some time, but the best solution is to live close to a productive agricultural region—supplemented with your own stored food. The apple you eat today could have been picked 3,000 miles away almost 8 months ago. It has been stored in one of these warehouses in a carefully climate-controlled environment. How will your location be affected by a lack of modern food distribution?
Do you know the kind of people who live in your area? Not all demographics are created equal when it comes to EMPs. Do you live in an area where people are looking for an excuse to riot or loot or do you find yourself among hardworking, religious people who tend to support each other? Notice the different responses between a tornado hitting a small town in Oklahoma and a flooded neighborhood in New Orleans, or even something as inconsequential as a national basketball championship in Los Angeles? Not all big cities are created equal and not all small towns are created equal either. If there is a large number of welfare-dependent residents in rental housing nearby, I would seriously consider moving. A demographic with a low-income, highly liberal population will pose different threats than a demographic with a high-income, conservative population after an EMP. Populations who support a larger role of government in providing security and livelihood tend to react negatively when neither is provided on demand. A good resource to analyze these risks on a state by state and county by county basis is the book Strategic Relocation by Joel Skousen.

When it’s all said and done, we need to accurately understand the threats we are preparing for in order to make wise decisions regarding our limited resources. An EMP would be catastrophic for sure; but the reality of life “post-EMP” is likely to be much different than the most-common pictures being painted these days. Do your own due diligence, research the risks and how they affect you specifically, and you will be much better off than just taking the arm-chair advice of even the loudest prognosticators—this author included.

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Monday July 20 2009

Letter Re: Some Details on the High Altitude EMP Threat

Mr. Rawles,
Within our Christian survivalist group in Washington State, we use your novel Patriots, as a primer for friends. Keep up the great job you do.

Please consider the following statement with your readers. I believe that an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack by satellite can happen to the U.S. without any notice at all, and many nations already have the satellites in order to produce the end result. This is not meant to scare, but just an observation on how our great country can be taken back to the 1800s technology and a Third World country economic level, in a microsecond. Please consider my train of thought on this line of reasoning which I send you. I think you "have" to agree that this method is so, so simple.

Can the U.S. be hit without any notice whatsoever by an EMP attack? Yes, and the answer is in the line of thinking to follow. Before you can read this reasoning statement post to it's conclusion, we could be back to the 1800s in technology. And by the Congressional report of 2008, 90% of Americans could be dead in 12 months [following a nationwide EMP attack.]

I just didn't realize how many satellites were orbiting the earth at 200 miles up and from so many different nations until today.

Another question to ask oneself: Does another country hate the U.S. to the extent to want to destroy us? Yes, several nations.

Can EMP be delivered by [a nuclear weapon onboard] an already existing and orbiting satellite to devastate our economy? The answer is yes. We’re on borrowed time, preppers.

For a comprehensive assessment of likely damages to electronics equipment and electrical infrastructure, see the 2008 Critical National Infrastructures Report written by the EMP Commission of the Federal government.

A cataclysmic attack throws the United States back to the dark ages, with no electricity, no communication or transportation networks, and no medicines. The most vulnerable members of society—the very young and the very old—begin to die off first, but soon hundreds of thousands of people, and then millions of people, begin dying. Rogue bands of lawless predators, living by rule of force rather than by rule of law, prey on weakened communities. The government, crippled, can’t come to anyone’s rescue. And all it takes is a single bomb detonated high above the atmosphere, two hundred miles above the continental United States.

At first thought, it might seem far-fetched to imagine a single bomb wiping out the entire country. But it wouldn’t be the power of the explosion, per se, that would cause the problem. Instead, the real problem would be the EMP generated by the explosion. Traveling at the speed of light, the EMP would act like an enormous ripple in the earth’s electromagnetic field. As that ripple hits electrical systems, it would get coupled and be way beyond anything hat a typical circuit breaker could handle. William R. Forstchen, the author of the popular novel One Second After in an article titled "EMP 101" A Basic Primer & Suggestions for Preparedness writes of high altitude EMP: “This energy surge will destroy all delicate electronics in your home, even as it destroys all the major components all the way back to the power company’s generators and the phone company’s main relays,” Forstchen writes. “In far less than a millisecond, the entire power grid of the United States, and all that it supports will be destroyed.” And if the power grid goes, then everything goes.

In July 1962, a 1.44 megaton United States nuclear test in space, 400 km (250 miles) above the Pacific Ocean, called the Starfish Prime test, demonstrated to nuclear scientists that the magnitude and effects of a high altitude nuclear explosion were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link

According to Wikipedia, there are several major factors control the effectiveness of a nuclear EMP weapon. These are:
1. The altitude of the weapon when detonated;
2. The yield and construction details of the weapon;
3. The distance from the weapon when detonated;
4. Geographical depth or intervening geographical features;
5. The local strength of the Earth's magnetic field.

A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) article stated that an EMP "can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. A large device detonated at 400–500 km (250 to 312 miles) over Kansas would affect all of the continental U.S. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point.

Could a Satellite with a nuclear payload already be orbiting Earth? So let’s ask the question, do any satellites orbit at 200 miles above Earth and how many countries have satellites at that altitude? Look at North Korea and Iran, Why are they so interested in building small-scale nuclear missiles? Only one model fits. Forstchen says: ”It’s the fact that the U.S. is so vulnerable that our enemies are even contemplating such an attack." Iran is in the space race. North Korea is in the space race.

Earth is ensnared today in a thick spider web of satellite orbits. Satellites with different assignments fly at different orbital altitudes. Russian and American navigation satellites orbit from 100 to 300 miles altitude. Civilian photography satellites, such as the American Landsat and the French SPOT, orbit at altitudes ranging from 300 to 600 miles. American NOAA and Russian Meteor weather satellites are at these same altitudes.

Does this seem too difficult for other nations? No. Just load up your nuclear weapon payload, orbit it as long as desired, and then hit the button when the satellite is above Kansas.

If Osama bin Laden - or the dictators of North Korea or Iran - could destroy America as a twenty-first century society and superpower, would they be tempted to try? Given their track records and stated hostility to the United States, we have to operate on the assumption that they would. That assumption would be especially frightening if this destruction could be accomplished with a single attack involving just one high yield nuclear weapon, and if the nature of the attack would mean that its perpetrator might not be immediately or easily identified. Unfortunately, such a scenario is not far-fetched. Frank Gaffney, in an essay titled: "EMP: America's Achilles' Heel" wrote: "...a report issued last summer by a blue-ribbon, Congressionally-mandated commission, a single specialized nuclear weapon delivered to an altitude of a few hundred miles over the United States by a ballistic missile would be "capable of causing catastrophe for the nation." The source of such a cataclysm might be considered the ultimate "weapon of mass destruction" (WMD) - yet it is hardly ever mentioned in the litany of dangerous WMDs we face today."

JWR Replies: Iran and North Korea are currently developing fission bombs, not fusion (hydrogen) bombs. A large fission bomb would produce an order of magnitude less EMP than a typical fusion bomb. High Altitude (space-based) EMP with a hydrogen bomb is presently a capability of only a handful of nation states. China is the biggest threat, in my opinion. As for fusion bombs concealed inside satellites, that is conceivable, notwithstanding the Space-Based weapons treaty. (The US and the former Soviet Union were signatories, but China was not.)

In my opinion, of far greater concern is EMP from a nuclear bomb on-board an aircraft. Assuming detonation at a high altitude, detonated suicidally, inside the aircraft, rather than being dropped) that would provide a broad line of sight (LOS) for EMP to provide a "footprint" radius of perhaps more than 200 miles, and far beyond line of sight (BLOS) indirect EMP coupling (via power lines and telephone cables) to a much larger radius. I first discussed LOS calculation for EMP in SurvivalBlog back in October of 2005, and I wrote the following more detailed piece in April 2007. Since it is relevant, I'll post it here again:

The [LOS] answer is both easy and impossible to determine. Let me explain. First, the easy part. The basic line of sight (LOS) footprint range calculation is really simple. It is essentially the same as the calculation that is used to determine the maximum effective range for a VHF or UHF radio onboard an aircraft. Referring back to one of my unclassified notebooks from my Electronic Warfare (5M) course at Fort Huachuca, I find: Assuming level terrain, the maximum potential radius of LOS in nautical miles (nmi) = square root of the emitter's altitude (in feet) x 1.056. Hence, that would be 149.3 nmi at 20,000 feet above sea level (ASL), or 191.8 nmi at 33,000 feet ASL. (A typical jet or C-130's service ceiling.) SurvivalBlog reader "Flighter" mentioned: "...some of the larger business jets such as the Airbus ACJ, Gulfstream, Challenger, and Citation are certificated to fly at or above 41,000 feet. The Sino Swearingen SJ30, is perhaps the highest flyer with a certificated ceiling of 49,000 feet. Hypothetically, a dangerous parabolic flight profile could with supplemental oxygen for the flight crew and perhaps even supplemental JATO rockets might push apogee to 75,000 feet in a few aircraft models. (Hey, it would be a suicidal flight anyway.) That is probably the highest altitude that could be expected for a terrorist to touch off a nuke--at least in the near future. That would equate to a footprint with a 280 mile radius. Oh, yes, they might also get really creative and use an unmanned balloon. (The word's record for those was 51.82 km (170,000 feet / 32.2 miles) But that is highly unlikely. What is likely? A ground level detonation. The EMP footprint of fission bomb detonated near ground level on dead level ground (plains country) might be no more than a 45 mile radius.

Now on to the part that is impossible to predict: long range linear coupling. Because telephone lines, power lines, and railroad tracks will act as giant antennas for EMP, the EMP waveforms will be coupled through those structures for many, many miles beyond line of sight (BLOS). Just how many miles BLOS is not yet known. I believe that if it were not for the advent of the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 (which banned atmospheric and space nuclear weapons tests), the DOD and AEC would have had the opportunity to conduct far more extensive tests to further characterize the panoply of potential EMP effects. But those test bans have kept us in the dark. In the absence of practical data, there is a lot guesswork, even among "applied physics" expert nuclear weapons physicists. We may not know the full extent of the EMP risk until after we see that bright flash on the horizon.

For planning purposes, you can probably safely assume that if you are living more than 280 miles from a major city, then your vehicle electronics will be safe from a terrorist nuke's EMP. (Since you will be BLOS to the EMP footprint of a nuke that is set off below 75,000 feet ASL.) Your home electronics, however, anywhere in CONUS might be at risk due to long range linear coupling--that is if your house is on grid power. This, BTW, is one more good reason for you to set up your own off-grid self sufficient photovoltaic (PV) power system. The folks at Ready Made Resources. offer free consulting on PV system sizing, site selection, and design.

There may be other high altitude delivery methods that I haven't considered, that would provide a broader LOS. But at least the hydrogen bomb club appears fairly small, so there is less risk of widespread EMP . It is conceivable that a Russian fusion bomb might have fallen into terrorist hands during the chaotic 1990s, but if one had, then it probably would have been used by now. Thus, at present, the terrorist and rogue state threat is just for fission bombs, which makes the EMP threat much smaller and more localized.

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Sunday July 19 2009

Oh, Henry! Worried About TEOTWAWKI?

A recent news headline in the English newspaper The Independent caught my eye: Paulson reveals US concerns of breakdown in law and order. I only rarely post entire newspaper articles. But this article is particularly significant to the SurvivalBlog readership, and since it is brief, I'm posting it in full:

The Bush administration and Congress discussed the possibility of a breakdown in law and order and the logistics of feeding US citizens if commerce and banking collapsed as a result of last autumn's financial panic, it was disclosed yesterday.

Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since leaving office, the former Treasury secretary Hank Paulson said it was important at the time not to reveal the extent of officials' concerns, for fear it would "terrify the American people and lead to an even bigger problem".

Mr. Paulson testified to the House Oversight Committee on the Bush administration's unpopular $700bn (£426bn) bailout of Wall Street, which was triggered by the failure of Lehman Brothers last September. In the days that followed, a run on some of the safest investment vehicles in the financial markets threatened to make it impossible for people to access their savings.

Paul Kanjorski, a Pennsylvania Democrat, asked Mr. Paulson to reveal details of officials' concerns, which were relayed to Congress in hasty conference calls last year. The calls included discussion of law and order and whether it would be possible to feed the American people, and for how long, according to Mr. Kanjorski.

"In a world where information can flow, money can move with the speed of light electronically, I looked at the ripple effect, and looked at when a financial system fails, a whole country's economic system can fail," Mr. Paulson said. "I believe we could have gone back to the sorts of situations we saw in the Depression. I try not to use hyperbole. It's impossible to prove now since it didn't happen."

The Oversight committee is investigating the takeover of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, a deal forged in the desperate weekend that Lehman Brothers failed, and which later required government support because of Merrill's spiraling losses.

Mr. Paulson defended putting pressure on Bank of America when it had last-minute doubts about the deal in December. Not to have done so could have rekindled the "financial havoc" the bailout had calmed.

(Special thanks to the publishers of The Independent.)

Hmm... This is certainly food for thought and grounds for further research. It notable to see the difference between public statements and what actually goes on behind closed doors. Compare the foregoing testimony with these excerpts from Paulson's widely-circulated press release on October 14, 2008:

"America is a strong nation. We are a confident and optimistic people. Our confidence is born out of our long history of meeting every challenge we face. Time and time again our nation has faced adversity and time and time again we have overcome it and risen to new heights. This time will be no different...

...President Bush has directed me to consider all necessary steps to restore confidence and stability to our financial markets and get credit flowing again. Ten days ago Congress gave important new tools to the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC to meet the challenges posed to our economy. My colleagues and I are working creatively and collaboratively to deploy these tools and direct our powers at this disruption to our economy.

Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the US economy. We regret having to take these actions. Today's actions are not what we ever wanted to do – but today's actions are what we must do to restore confidence to our financial system...

...While many banks have suffered significant losses during this period of market turmoil, many others have plenty of capital to get through this period, but are not positioned to lend as widely as is necessary to support our economy. Our goal is to see a wide array of healthy institutions sell preferred shares to the Treasury, and raise additional private capital, so that they can make more loans to businesses and consumers across the nation. At a time when events naturally make even the most daring investors more risk-averse, the needs of our economy require that our financial institutions not take this new capital to hoard it, but to deploy it...

...These three steps significantly strengthen financial institutions and improve their access to funding, enabling them to increase financing of the consumption and business investment that drive U.S. economic growth. Market participants here and around the world can take confidence from the powerful actions taken today and our broad commitment to the health of the global financial system.

We are acting with unprecedented speed taking unprecedented measures that we never thought would be necessary. But they are necessary to get our economy back on an even keel, and secure the confidence and future of our markets, our economy and the economic well-being of all Americans.

By December of 2008 Paulson was browbeating Bank of America's CEO Ken Lewis into a shotgun wedding with Merrill Lynch. Paulson now claims he did so, in part, because he was worried about a banking meltdown and the possibility of what we would call TEOTWAWKI. Perhaps he was reading too much SurvivalBlog, or someone gave him a copy of my novel and he was losing sleep over it.

What is to be learned from all this? Here is Rawles Axiom #1 on Political Awareness: Don't trust or even pay much attention to what public officials say. Instead, concentrate on what they do, and more importantly on the subsequent results and consequences of what they do. Words don't mean much to politicians. They all too frequently tailor their words to match their particular audience, with little regard to honesty or forthrightness.

If you think that I've over-reacted to the preceding cited quotes, take a moment to consider that this is the same Henry Paulson that had publicly declared just a few months before (on March 16, 2008): "I've got great confidence in our financial market, our financial institutions. Our markets are resilient and flexible. Our institutions, our investment banks are strong,"

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Friday July 17 2009

Three Rules for Living Through the Second Depression, by Chaz Valenza

I believe we are on the precipice of the Second Depression. Though President Obama is working valiantly to turn the country’s financial ship, it appears to me that the lack of a genuine
economic engine to create sufficient, sustaining, value-adding jobs will come too late. What should the common man do?

Much of the advice on how to live through such hard times is often too specific, not specific enough or draconian. How many of us are ready or should even consider survivalist methods? Who among us can afford to completely restructure their finances on a moment’s notice? Which of us can effectively plan now for the unforeseen severity we may or may not face?

Often to my amusement, I have found that everything in life can be boiled down to Three Rules that pretty much envelop the whole enchilada. I call these simple statements of essential truth a “Three Rules" poem. They can be fun, amusing, thoughtful, whimsical, et cetera. This one, presented for your approval and commentary, is dead serious.

Properly deduced, by sorting through the minutiae to find the lowest common denominator, a given Three Rules won’t tell you exactly what to do, but they should provide the framework for recognizing actions to a successful conclusion.

Here are mine:

Three Rules for Living through the Second Depression

1. Escape and avoid entanglements with scams and the authorities.

2. Stick together to defend each others right to food and shelter.

3. Make yourself useful.

Allow me to elucidate on each of the above.

Escape and avoid entanglements with scams and the authorities.

Debatable as it may seem now, this rule will become imperative. As the situation grows grimmer, more and more people and organization will devise ever more devious ways to steal the resources they want from those that can be conned or exploited.

As we have seen, much of what is called our financial system is nothing more than a cabal of greed that has worked diligently to sanction rules that effectively fleeced workers of their deserved earnings.

Look at any list of what to do during a financial crisis and you will find suggestions as to the preservation of your hard earned capital, should you have any, or a suggestion that you get out of debt. Good ideas, but they do not go far enough or wide enough to give anyone practical guidance and doable tasks.

First, let’s go wide. This rule includes all powerful or legally protected organizations that promise more than they know they can ever deliver. Here are examples that deserve skeptical analysis: unsecured debt of all kinds, especially credit cards with numerous fees, charges, penalties and usury interest rates; work at home scams; costly education with no job certainty; fortune tellers and spiritualists of all varieties; full commission sales positions with no base salary; internet scams; credit counseling; insurance; job counselors, resume services and business consultants; barter brokers; pyramid schemes and other versions of musical chairs; speed, DWI and other police traps to snare high fines and surcharges; et cetera.

If you haven’t already noticed, the police are out in force and quick to pull the ticket book trigger. Here in New Jersey, though the civil and criminal courts were subject to cost-cutting furlough days, no such thing happened in the money making municipal courts. Basically, now is not the time to get caught being late with payments or cheating on taxes, nor the moment to get on any bureaucrat’s building code violations clipboard. As the tax & budget shortfalls grow, expect to be hunted down for the most insignificant violation of any law, code or tax regulation.

The authorities will continue to work diligently to create money-raising traps disguised as public service. Be careful out there! That you've done nothing wrong, nor hurt anyone, may not matter. If caught in any such snare, don't exacerbate the situation, minimize the damage.

Keep you relations with the government limited to only what it can do for you and beware that even these “community chest” transactions may include trade-offs, expressed, implied or otherwise that may work against you.

Going as far as possible, if you lose you job or you’ve been purchasing necessities on your credit cards, or you can’t afford the medicine or medical care you need or you’re about to lose you home or car, definitely consider escaping the entanglement and life sucking burden of debt. Are you feeling guilty about the option of filing for protection from your creditors? Consider this, you didn't’t make the rules, but you have to live by them. Bankruptcy is in the rule book, use any and all rules to your advantage without any qualms.

Stick together to defend each others right to food and shelter.

All of the accounts of the Great Depression remind us of how important organizing will be to survival in the Second Depression.

Face facts, it’s good to be member of any club that supports you in living a decent life.

I am no fan of organized religion, and I do not advocate its proliferation, but I must recognize its one aspect of value to the individual participant: community. Remember, you don’t have to believe in Santa to have friends. Any group will do, especially family. Have a pact to house each other if worst comes to worst.

In Florida, Max Rameau is housing the homeless in foreclosed property. He considers his work both civil disobedience and the morally proper response to human necessity. In desperate times, we will all do what we must. We must all protect the most basic human right to food and shelter for each other.

Do what they did during the Great Depression, support your neighbor and don’t let them be evicted. Homelessness is a nightmare that can bring the strongest of us to our knees. The right response is not to let it happen to our friends, family and neighbors.

Act locally to secure food resources to your geographic community, both near and wide. Industrial agriculture, the menace that brought you cheap, unhealthy and non-nutritious food, will starve you when you cannot pay the price. Recognize that hunger is a political/financial issue; it has nothing to do with a lack of food in the world. This will not change during the Second Depression.

During the Great Depression, there was abundant food, much of it warehoused and going to waste as scare jobs meant scare money and starving people. Monsanto, ConAgra,
Nestle and ADM are not going to feed you if you can’t pay; neither are McDonalds, Burger King, Fridays, Chili’s or the rest of the chain palletized food venues.

Support your local farms and fisheries as much as possible. Not only is that where your food will be grown, it’s where the local jobs will take root. Farmer’s markets, chef-owned and independent restaurants, the locally owned quality supermarket may be a little more expensive, but chances are they offer real value and will be there to underpin the your local community when times get tough.

Make yourself useful.

You can start right now. Play “what if” with yourself and do a little mental planning. What if, I can’t afford the rent? Make the call to friends and family so you will know where you can go and for how long. Figure out your finances now. Do what makes sense now in light of what is probably going to happen in the future.

If you have a job, keep it. If you hate your job, know the risks before you make a move. If you have savings, secure it. If you have debt, do what must be done to get rid of it. Sooner is better than too late.

If the worst happens and you’re out of work this is the rule to heed. Figure out what you can do. They’ll be plenty to do to help others and help you and yours.

As with food, jobs are going to become an important local resource. Local business are not going to move, but the may fail, without your support during the Second Depression. Consider local options for everything you buy now. Tech support and computer repair: the local geek shop or a Dell extended warranty? Banking: Citibank or the local credit union that will still FDIC secures your deposits? Customer service and support: deal with the person in Bangalore or request for a representative in the United States? It goes on and on: The local organic farm or Perdue? Quality clothes made in the USA or Wal-Mart’s Chinese imports? The big box home center or the local hardware store that is not just luring you in to sell you patio furniture? We’ve made too many poor choices in all these respects over the last three decades. Let’s think local and long term starting now.

Fix it. Paint it. Repair it. Weed it by hand instead of buying Round-up. Collect rain water for your garden. Basically, when your money is in short supply and your time is long, use your time and don’t spend the money.

Voting early and often may be out of the question, but if you got the time why not make yourself useful and give your elected representatives an earful. Now is the time to make your voice heard as our timid politicians tip-toe around and hope for the best.

In conclusion:

Apply these rules starting now to your particular situation, needs and environs. We can get through this if we start thinking and acting more deliberately and cut out those institutions that only want our money and have never cared a whit about us.

JWR Adds: Before you send me a Nastygram about Mr. Valenza's article, please re-read my introductory note, above.

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Monday July 13 2009

H1N1 Influenza: A Cytokine Storm Conclusion, But Still More Questions Than Answers

The good news on H1N1 (commonly called Swine Flu) is that in current strains the death rate appears to be as low as 1 in 2,000 infections, at least in First World countries with modern hospital facilities. The bad news is that at least 60% of world's population is expect to contract the bug, and that further mutations are probable.

The Mutation Question

Mutations to less virulent strains are the historic norm for viruses but there is the risk of one that is very deadly. (To explain: in the grand scheme of things, a mutation with high lethality is is not good for a virus. Some, like Marburg and Ebola, have had strains that were so deadly that the hosts didn't live long enough to pass it along to a large number of new carriers. The most successful viruses are the ones that propagate well, but do not kill too many of their hosts.) We can surmise that the absolute "worst case" for H1N1 is that a much more lethal strain emerges, to be followed by a global infection, and a large-scale die-off. But again, that is the less likely outcome.

The Cytokine Storm Question

Up until recently, I agreed with SurvivalBlog reader "L. Jean" in England who in an e-mail last week noted that we were "still waiting to find out if it's a cytokine storm that kills or not." This is a determining factor whether young, healthy folks should try to boost their immune response, or whether that might make matters worse. Based on the latest literature, I believe that it is now safe to say that with H1N1 a cytokine over-reaction is indeed a substantial risk, and could be a bigger killer than the virus itself. So my updated advice is to continue to store immunity boosters, but not use them to treat H1N1 unless you are Imuno-suppressed. Otherwise healthy patients in ages between 18 and 50 should refrain from doing so. I have updated my article on influenza pandemics, accordingly.

The Immunization Question

There is a vaccine for H1N1 in development, but it has been put on a radically fast track for development and trials. This has raised concerns about contamination and efficacy. Since the strain chosen for the immunization is both a "snapshot" and a "best guess" about what strain will be circulating next winter in the northern hemisphere, and there will only be limited animal testing to rule out pathogenicity. So there are some critics that argue that the vaccine might pose more of risk than the flu itself. It is also noteworthy that the vaccination program will require multiple injections for each patient. In my opinion, it is not yet clear whether the risks will outweigh the benefits. For some of my readers this won't be a matter of choice. Both Canada and the UK have announced their intent to implement universal inoculation programs.

The Madagascar Question

In the well-known computer game Pandemic II, the president of the island nation of Madagascar is quick to isolate the country to prevent the advent of a pandemic. This has become a standing joke among gamers, and the term "Madagascar" has migrated into the epidemiology community. "Going Madagascar" is essentially slamming the doors shut, in the hopes of avoiding infection. (BTW, I know of at least two survival retreat groups that use "Madagascar" as their activation codeword, a-la the novel Alas, Babylon .) As I noted previously, the "worst case" for any virus is that a very lethal strain emerges, and rapidly spreads globally, as depicted in the novel (and television series) Survivors by Terry Nation. The spread of H1N1 via modern jet air travel illustrated just how quickly this could happen. H1N1 has already spread throughout the United States. So I stand by my oft-quoted advice: In such an event you need to be ready and able to isolate your family for an extended period of time. Essentially, you would declare your homestead a mini-Madagascar and "button up" to wait for the virus to burn itself out. (BTW, I briefly describe the logistics of this in my article "Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic.") It is obviously too late and inappropriate to take extreme measures to isolate yourself from the current strain of H1N1, but we must remain vigilant for any new viral threats. The ability to "go Madagascar" is just one more reason to a have a deep larder!

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Monday June 29 2009

Ug-99 and The Ugly Times Ahead--There'll Be Fungus Among Us

My consulting clients often ask me me for predictions. "What's your timeframe, Mister Rawles?" I hear that in almost every consulting call. My clients ask: "When will the US economy crater?" I tell them that is impossible to predict, because there are so many variables and interdependencies, and because the markets are so heavily manipulated. They also ask me: Is the H1N1 Flu sure to mutate in to a more virulent strain, and if so, when?" I answer: "That is impossible to predict." I'm also often quizzed about the Ug-99 wheat fungus (aka "Durable Wheat Rust", or simply "the stem rust"). Clearly, it is advancing , but without a specific timeframe. Scientists are now calling the advance of Ug-99 around the globe "inevitable". My greatest fear is that instead of just being spread gradually by the wind, the stem rust will make "leaps", via the cargo holds of ships, and hence end up in the world's "bread baskets": Australia, the Ukraine, the US, and Canada. In the long run, containment is seen as almost impossible. Thusfar, attempts to create a rust-resistant wheat variety have been thwarted by the rust's rapid mutation rate.

Let's look at some numbers: 20% of the calories consumed by the human population of our planet currently comes from wheat. That means that there will likely be a caloric shortfall for a number of years--until either wheat fields are re-planted in some different crop, or until a viable rust-resistant wheat variety is developed.

I encourage readers to study the Ug-99 threat, and think through its implications on a macro (global) scale. Then think through the implications of a wheat famine at a personal level. Where will you and your family get your daily bread? Have you stored up for seven lean years?

I cannot more strongly urge SurvivalBlog readers: Get your food storage squared away, immediately. Supplies are plentiful now, and prices are still reasonable. But the threats that we are facing are numerous, large, and all too likely. And, of these, UG-99 is almost a certainty in the next decade, and it will directly affect the global food supply. Stop dawdling and get ready. You owe it to your family to do the best that you can to prepare.

In a recent exchange of correspondence abut Ug-99 with reader Jim M., he wrote: "I think stored food should be viewed more as a supplement, especially wheat in view of UG-99. Alternative sources of complex carbohydrates should be sought by preppers. Other grain seed should be planted and replenished by those with land and climate to do so: oats, barley, rye, spelt, millet, maize, quinoa. A few thousand square feet of each suitable grain type would provide continuous seed viability as well as training for larger-scale crops and harvests in the future. Starchy tubers could also figure greatly in extending long-term food stores. Anyone with even a sunny balcony should be able to grow their own potatoes for instance and there are plenty of other tubers they can try."

Preparedness is keyed to trends and to the emergence of general threats, not specific dates. It has not been since Y2K that we've had specific date target. And that was clearly an exception to the general rule. Perhaps we'll someday read about a large asteroid with a predicted earth-crossing orbit (like Apophis), and have a multi-year countdown to disaster. But otherwise,we just have to be ready at all times for a variety of potential situations.

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Letter Re: An Upcoming Retreat Purchase -- Sell Gold or Take a Mortgage?

Jim,
We love your site. It is part of our daily must reads. While driving to view possible retreat locations today, we printed out your advice on retreat locations and read it again as we drove to the determined area. After looking most of the day, we literally stumble upon (because it was not visible from the road – only a for sale sign) a nearly perfect location, several springs, trees, hillside with level areas, in the top three in all categories of your retreat lists, etc.

In looking to make an offer we wanted your advice regarding financing the purchase. Would you recommend selling gold reserves, home equity line of credit (HELOC) on debt-free primary residence, seller financing to the extent available or institutional financing? Why and/or why not for each? Thank you so much for all you are doing. You are providing an extremely valuable and much appreciated service. - Ken I.

JWR Replies: I can understand the temptation to to hang on to your gold and take a mortgage, but to be conservative and low-risk, my advice is to be debt free. We will probably experience another year or two of deflation before inflation re-emerges. Avoid debt in deflationary times! Mortgage debt is a killer when layoffs occur in droves. So go ahead and sell your gold. But, if possible, wait for a short-term rally.

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Sunday June 28 2009

Security at Places of Worship: More Than a Matter of Faith, by Scott Stewart and Fred Burton

In recent months, several high-profile incidents have raised awareness of the threat posed by individuals and small groups operating under the principles of leaderless resistance. These incidents have included lone wolf attacks against a doctor who performed abortions in Kansas, an armed forces recruitment center in Arkansas and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C. Additionally, a grassroots jihadist cell was arrested for attempting to bomb Jewish targets in the Bronx and planning to shoot down a military aircraft at an Air National Guard base in Newburgh, N.Y.

In addition to pointing out the threat posed by grassroots cells and lone wolf operatives, another common factor in all of these incidents is the threat of violence to houses of worship. The cell arrested in New York left what they thought to be active improvised explosive devices outside the Riverdale Temple and the Riverdale Jewish Community Center. Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in the lobby of the Reformation Lutheran Church in Wichita. Although Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad conducted his attacks against a Little Rock recruiting center, he had conducted preoperational surveillance and research on targets that included Jewish organizations and a Baptist church in places as far away as Atlanta and Philadelphia. And while James von Brunn attacked the Holocaust Museum, he had a list of other potential targets in his vehicle that included the National Cathedral.

In light of this common thread, it might be instructive to take a more detailed look at the issue of providing security for places of worship.

Awareness: The First Step

Until there is awareness of the threat, little can be done to counter it. In many parts of the world, such as Iraq, India and Pakistan, attacks against places of worship occur fairly frequently. It is not difficult for religious leaders and members of their congregations in such places to be acutely aware of the dangers facing them and to have measures already in place to deal with those perils. This is not always the case in the United States, however, where many people tend to have an “it can’t happen here” mindset, believing that violence in or directed against places of worship is something that happens only to other people elsewhere.

This mindset is particularly pervasive among predominantly white American Protestant and Roman Catholic congregations. Jews, Mormons, Muslims and black Christians, and others who have been targeted by violence in the past, tend to be far more aware of the threat and are far more likely to have security plans and measures in place to counter it. The Jewish community has very well-developed and professional organizations such as the Secure Community Network (SCN) and the Anti-Defamation League that are dedicated to monitoring threats and providing education about the threats and advice regarding security. The Council on American-Islamic Relations has taken on a similar role for the Muslim community and has produced a “Muslim community safety kit” for local mosques. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) also has a very organized and well-connected security department that provides information and security advice and assistance to LDS congregations worldwide.

There are no functional equivalents to the SCN or the LDS security departments in the larger Catholic, evangelical Protestant and mainline Protestant communities, though there are some organizations such as the recently established Christian Security Network that have been attempting to fill the void.

Following an incident, awareness of the threat seems to rise for a time, and some houses of worship will put some security measures in place, but for the most part such incidents are seen as events that take place elsewhere, and the security measures are abandoned after a short time.

Permanent security measures are usually not put in place until there has been an incident of some sort at a specific house of worship, and while the triggering incident is sometimes something that merely provides a good scare, other times it is a violent action that results in tragedy. Even when no one is hurt in the incident, the emotional damage caused to a community by an act of vandalism or arson at a house of worship can be devastating.

It is important to note here that not all threats to places of worship will emanate from external actors. In the midst of any given religious congregation, there are, by percentages, people suffering from serious mental illnesses, people engaged in bitter child-custody disputes, domestic violence situations and messy divorces. Internal disputes in the congregation can also lead to feuds and violence. Any of these situations can (and have) led to acts of violence inside houses of worship.

Security Means More than Alarms and Locks

An effective security program is more than just having physical security measures in place. Like any man-made constructs, physical security measures — closed-circuit television (CCTV), alarms, cipher locks and so forth — have finite utility. They serve a valuable purpose in institutional security programs, but an effective security program cannot be limited to these things. Devices cannot think or evaluate. They are static and can be observed, learned and even fooled. Also, because some systems frequently produce false alarms, warnings in real danger situations may be brushed aside. Given these shortcomings, it is quite possible for anyone planning an act of violence to map out, quantify and then defeat or bypass physical security devices. However, elaborate planning is not always necessary. Consider the common scenario of a heavy metal door with very good locks that is propped open with a trashcan or a door wedge. In such a scenario, an otherwise “secure” door is defeated by an internal security lapse.

However, even in situations where there is a high degree of threat awareness, there is a tendency to place too much trust in physical security measures, which can become a kind of crutch — and, ironically, an obstacle to effective security.

In fact, to be effective, physical security devices always require human interaction. An alarm is useless if no one responds to it, or if it is not turned on; a lock is ineffective if it is not engaged. CCTV cameras are used extensively in corporate office buildings and some houses of worship, but any competent security manager will tell you that, in reality, they are far more useful in terms of investigating a theft or act of violence after the fact than in preventing one (although physical security devices can sometimes cause an attacker to divert to an easier target).

No matter what kinds of physical security measures may be in place at a facility, they are far less likely to be effective if a potential assailant feels free to conduct preoperational surveillance, and is free to observe and map those physical security measures. The more at ease someone feels as they set about identifying and quantifying the physical security systems and procedures in place, the higher the odds they will find ways to beat the system.

A truly “hard” target is one that couples physical security measures with an aggressive, alert attitude and sense of awareness. An effective security program is proactive — looking outward to where most real threats are lurking — rather than inward, where the only choice is to react once an attack has begun to unfold. We refer to this process of proactively looking for threats as protective intelligence.

The human interaction required to make physical security measures effective, and to transform a security program into a proactive protective intelligence program, can come in the form of designated security personnel. In fact, many large houses of worship do utilize off-duty police officers, private security guards, volunteer security guards or even a dedicated security staff to provide this coverage. In smaller congregations, security personnel can be members of the congregation who have been provided some level of training.

However, even in cases where there are specially designated security personnel, such officers have only so many eyes and can only be in a limited number of places at any one time. Thus, proactive security programs should also work to foster a broad sense of security awareness among the members of the congregation and community, and use them as additional resources.

Unfortunately, in many cases, there is often a sense in the religious community that security is bad for the image of a particular institution, or that it will somehow scare people away from houses of worship. Because of this, security measures, if employed, are often hidden or concealed from the congregation. In such cases, security managers are deprived of many sets of eyes and ears. Certainly, there may be certain facets of a security plan that not everyone in the congregation needs to know about, but in general, an educated and aware congregation and community can be a very valuable security asset.

Training

In order for a congregation to maintain a sense of heightened awareness it must learn how to effectively do that. This training should not leave people scared or paranoid — just more observant. People need to be trained to look for individuals who are out of place, which can be somewhat counterintuitive. By nature, houses of worship are open to outsiders and seek to welcome strangers. They frequently have a steady turnover of new faces. This causes many to believe that, in houses of worship, there is a natural antagonism between security and openness, but this does not have to be the case. A house of worship can have both a steady stream of visitors and good security, especially if that security is based upon situational awareness.

At its heart, situational awareness is about studying people, and such scrutiny will allow an observer to pick up on demeanor mistakes that might indicate someone is conducting surveillance. Practicing awareness and paying attention to the people approaching or inside a house of worship can also open up a whole new world of ministry opportunities, as people “tune in” to others and begin to perceive things they would otherwise miss if they were self-absorbed or simply not paying attention. In other words, practicing situational awareness provides an excellent opportunity for the members of a congregation to focus on the needs and burdens of other people.

It is important to remember that every attack cycle follows the same general steps. All criminals — whether they are stalkers, thieves, lone wolves or terrorist groups — engage in preoperational surveillance (sometimes called “casing,” in the criminal lexicon). Perhaps the most crucial point to be made about preoperational surveillance is that it is the phase when someone with hostile intentions is most apt to be detected — and the point in the attack cycle when potential violence can be most easily disrupted or prevented.

The second most critical point to emphasize about surveillance is that most criminals are not that good at it. They often have terrible surveillance tradecraft and are frequently very obvious. Most often, the only reason they succeed in conducting surveillance without being detected is because nobody is looking for them. Because of this, even ordinary people, if properly instructed, can note surveillance activity.

It is also critically important to teach people — including security personnel and members of the congregation — what to do if they see something suspicious and whom to call to report it. Unfortunately, a lot of critical intelligence is missed because it is not reported in a timely manner — or not reported at all — mainly because untrained people have a habit of not trusting their judgment and dismissing unusual activity. People need to be encouraged to report what they see.

Additionally, people who have been threatened, are undergoing nasty child-custody disputes or have active restraining orders protecting them against potentially violent people need to be encouraged to report unusual activity to their appropriate points of contact.

As a part of their security training, houses of worship should also instruct their staff and congregation members on procedures to follow if a shooter enters the building and creates what is called an active-shooter situation. These “shooter” drills should be practiced regularly — just like fire, tornado or earthquake drills. The teachers of children’s classes and nursery workers must also be trained in how to react.

Liaison

One of the things the SCN and ADL do very well is foster security liaison among Jewish congregations within a community and between those congregations and local, state and federal law enforcement organizations. This is something that houses of worship from other faiths should attempt to duplicate as part of their security plans.

While having a local cop in a congregation is a benefit, contacting the local police department should be the first step. It is very important to establish this contact before there is a crisis in order to help expedite any law enforcement response. Some police departments even have dedicated community liaison officers, who are good points of initial contact. There are other specific points of contact that should also be cultivated within the local department, such as the SWAT team and the bomb squad.

Local SWAT teams often appreciate the chance to do a walk-through of a house of worship so that they can learn the layout of the building in case they are ever called to respond to an emergency there. They also like the opportunity to use different and challenging buildings for training exercises (something that can be conducted discreetly after hours). Congregations with gyms and weight rooms will often open them up for local police officers to exercise in, and some congregations will also offer police officers a cup of coffee and a desk where they can sit and type their reports during evening hours.

But the local police department is not the only agency with which liaison should be established. Depending on the location of the house of worship, the state police, state intelligence fusion center or local joint terrorism task force should also be contacted. By working through state and federal channels, houses of worship in specific locations may even be eligible for grants to help underwrite security through programs such as the Department of Homeland Security’s Urban Areas Security Initiative Nonprofit Security Grant Program.

The world is a dangerous place and attacks against houses of worship will continue to occur. But there are proactive security measures that can be taken to identify attackers before they strike and help prevent attacks from happening or mitigate their effects when they do. - Scott Stewart and Fred Burton, Stratfor

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Saturday June 27 2009

Letter Re: Keeping Cash On Hand--A Lesson Learned

Dear Jim,
I didn't need a major nationwide SHTF moment to learn a lesson this week. (Why didn't I listen to your advice before this happened!)
On the 15th, someone intercepted my new debit card before it reached my mailbox and cleaned out my checking account at a gas station in another state at 3:00 AM. I didn't have much in there, as it went into overdraft, but it was all I had and I needed it to get to the end of the month. When the bank called at 10:00 AM, I assured them it wasn't me who overdrew the account. I was told it would take 10 business days (two weeks) before they could straighten it out. In the meantime, I am locked out of my checking account and the savings account as there wasn't enough to cover the overdrafts plus fees and my credit card through the bank is frozen. Even if someone gave me a check (loan) to cover my family over the next two weeks, the bank won't let me cash it.
The lesson? Keep cash on hand at home!

Well, at least I learned it this month, and not later in the year when it's possible bank holidays may occur! As panicked as I was on the 15th, I don't know how our friends will get through it if it happens to them! (notice-they offered checks, since they didn't have cash on hand, either)

I am happy to say that other then being penniless at the moment, I was prepared with a deep larder and enough gasoline stored to keep the car going. No one starved and we made all our appointments although there was an awkward moment with a pay-now co-payment. (if only I had started the nickel collection!) One more week to go before this gets straightened out, but we will be okay. I'm actually grateful we're going through this now so lessons learned have the chance to be applied later when it will really count. (Cash-cash-cash-cash!) - A.C.

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Friday June 26 2009

The Meme of Crushroom: A Key Retreat Architecture Element

One bit of retreat architecture that I've often recommended to my consulting clients who are designing (or retrofitting) retreats is the inclusion of a protruding entryway foyer, that I call a crushroom. Passing this advice along to you gives me the chance to employ one of my horrible puns: The Meme of Crushroom. A crushroom is a controllable confined space, typically an entry foyer, that can be covered with small arms fire or subjected to irritant or obscurant smoke or sprays. The outer door (or barred gate) to the crushroom is normally left open, but has a spring loaded self -closure device, and an automatically-engaged remote-controlled lock release mechanism. Think of it as a box trap for Bad Guys. Have you ever visited a Big City apartment with a communal door where you need to get "buzzed in"? In this case, the Bad Guys will have to be buzzed out of your crushroom

The home invasion threat can only be expected to increase in coming years. I anticipate greater use of dynamic-entry tools by home invaders. For instance, they will soon use commercial or improvised door-entry battering rams and Hallagan tools—like those used by firemen and police entry teams. This means that standard solid-core doors by themselves will be insufficient. In a worst, case, thugs might even use vehicle-mounted battering rams. In such circumstances, it will be wise to have the extra layer of protection afforded by a crushroom.

You should position the outer door to your crushroom one of its side walls, rather than lined up with the entrance door to the house. Having this 90-degree turn and allowing just a four foot space in front of the house entrance door has several advantages: First. it makes it impossible to use a long battering ram--since it limits the length and "throw" of a battering ram. (Even a very stout door, hinges, and doorframe will not withstand the impact of a 10-foot-long battering ram that is manned by a team of thugs). Second, it removes direct line of sight into your house. This is useful for light discipline, in a grid-down situation. (When you are likely to have electric lights in your house interior, but your neighbors won't.) Lastly, the crushroom wall opposite your front door provides another layer of ballistic protection--it would have to be knocked down before your front door could be attacked.

Picture this: With your intrusion detection security system, you see one or more thugs approach your house. They are acting "hinkey", or outright aggressive--perhaps rushing in to conduct a home invasion robbery. Then they proceed to try to kick down your front door. But lo and behold, they don't succeed, because you've built your door and barred it to Rawles specifications. (Strong enough to resist even a small battering ram, and armored against small arms fire.) Using your intercom-loudspeaker, you sternly warn them away. But since they have bravado to spare and have never before encountered a door that they couldn't kick in, they persist with their futile leg exercises. At that point, you already have your telephone in hand, and have dialed 911. (That is assuming your are in pre-Schumeresque circumstances, when there still is a police or sheriff's department willing and able to respond.) You then flip the switch, releasing the crushroom's outer door. It slams shut, and locks. Now, the thugs feel trapped, crowded, or crushed in the close confines of the foyer. They will then almost surely turn their attention to kicking at the outer door (or barred gate). At this juncture, you have several "continuum of force" options:

A.) You shout a stern warning and then hit the switch releasing the outer door and "buzz them out." This is effectively just letting them go,, with a warning. Such a course of action is recommended only in current day "peaceful" circumstances.

B.) Using your exterior loudspeaker, you spend five minutes sharing the Gospel with the thugs, then you hit the switch to release the outer door.

C.) You pull a wire that is attached to the pin on a smoke grenade in the decorative "overhead light fixture" in the foyer, and simultaneously start playing your retreat's PSYOPS tape over your exterior loudspeaker, at around 60 decibels. This combination (especially a violet smoke grenade and a tape of Jimi Hendrix playing Purple Haze) is sure to make the thugs think twice about coming back.

D.) You pull a wire on that is attached to the pin on a CS tear gas grenade, and simultaneously start playing your retreat's PSYOPS tape at around 90 decibels. This, (especially a tape of Credence Clearwater Revival singing Bad Moon Rising) will probably make the goblins soil their trousers and reconsider their life of crime.

E.) You slide open an armored gun port, and protrude the muzzle of your favorite large-caliber lead dispenser.

F.) Any combination of options B, C, D, or E, in whichever sequence seems apropos, given the day's relative Schumer Index and the prevailing exigency of the circumstances.

Alternatively, your crushroom could normally be kept locked from the outside. This will provide a valuable delay for even the most ambitious dynamic entry by home invaders. It will also provide you a safe place for you take delivery of mail and packages with some "stand-off" distance.

Four Important Provisos:

1.) Only build a crushroom if you are also going to first upgrade your front door and doorframe to very stout specifications, and the surrounding wall is of similarly stout (i.e. masonry) construction. The last thing that you want to experience is a bunch of enraged bad guys actually entering your home.

2.) Do not mention the purpose of your crushroom to friends, neighbors, or even relatives. It should outwardly just look like either a "mud room", a "weather airlock", or perhaps a "Spanish style" foyer, with "decorative" heavy wrought iron bars. If you are indiscreet, word of it may get around, and then at best you'll get labeled as the local survivalist whacko. Or at worst, word will get as far as the local band of goblins, and whilst sharpening their knives they will deviously plan to bypass your crushroom entirely. They may decide to either bushwhack you while you are out splitting wood, or invade your house via your roof, with a chainsaw or a fireman's metal-cutting rescue saw.

3.) I most strongly encourage readers to use your crushroom's outer door as a mantrap (and any of the other active measures that I've mentioned) only in truly post-TEOTWAWKI circumstances. As I've noted many times before in SurvivalBlog, we live in an extremely litigious society. Displaying the audacity to actually hold bad guys in place until the gendarmes arrive could be grounds for civil lawsuits (for false arrest, excessive use of force, mental distress, etc.,) and possibly even criminal charges. In essence, if you hold someone in a citizen's arrest in excess of what a jury of your peers deems justifiable and reasonable, then you could conceivably be charged with felony kidnapping. Here, the "Reasonable Man" standard will probably be applied. (Black's Law Dictionary defines citizen's arrest as: "The apprehending or detaining of a person in order to be forthcoming to answer an alleged or suspected crime." See: ex parte Sherwood, (29 Tex. App. 334, 15 S.W. 812).

4.) Be sure to provide yourself a way out of your crushroom, in the event that the outer door closes unexpectedly when you don't have a door key in your pocket. Perhaps a spare key that is very well-hidden behind some molding.

For further background, see this letter in the SurvivalBlog archives on "man trap" architectural features.

Some Suggested Suppliers:

Door closing springs. Check your local Yellow Pages for "Fire Door" hardware suppliers. Your local locksmith probably knows of a supplier, or may have a pile of used one in his back room. For a man trap, the faster the action of the door closure, the better. Hence, a traditional coil spring action is preferable to the more modern, slower pneumatically-dampened springs. Think in terms of cattle chute hardware, rather than what you'd likely see on shopping mall doors.

Door release solenoids. (You've probably seen these on fire doors at hospitals and other public buildings.) Note that in circumstances where grid power is iffy, you can substitute a mechanical release, activated by a simple pull-cable and cotter pin.

Door lock & release solenoid ("buzzer lock") mechanisms. Search for local suppliers with a the web search phrases "mantrap" or "common door buzzer lock". To provide sufficient "hold the goblins in place" strength, you may have to use multiple locking solenoids--at the top, middle, and bottom of the door--that are engaged and disengaged simultaneously.

CS tear gas grenades. These are available from police supply houses. In most states it is not illegal for citizens to possess them. But by their company sales policy, most police supply houses will only sell these to orders placed on police department letterhead. But I've occasionally seen gas grenades sold at at gun shows, and they also come up from time to time on firearms auction sites like GunBroker.com and AuctionArms.com. For example, see this current GunBroker auction. Be sure to consult your state and local laws before buying these or similar pyrotechnic devices.

Gun Ports. You might luck into some of these at a scrap yard (from a retired bank armored car), but more likely you will have to fabricate these yourself, or have a welding shop make them for you. Remember: Gun ports work both ways, so you will want a thick, well-braced, sliding backing plate that latches securely. Specify everything for the ports very thick and very stout. Any exposed hardware should be large-diameter and welded in place, once assembled.

Exterior (weather resistant) loudspeakers. Rather than buying new (and expensive) speakers, try placing a "wanted" ad in Craigslist. It is amazing to see what people have salted away in their garages and attics.

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Tuesday June 23 2009

Letter Re: Societal Collapse: The Albanian Experience (Circa 1997)

Mr. Rawles,
I'm a new SurvivalBlog reader, and your blog goes along a lot with many of my own thoughts and precautions; things many people these days consider ridiculous, but that an old instructor of mine (from a gov't agency that shall go unnamed) would probably call "maintaining a healthy level of paranoia".

In browsing your blog and its archives, I have been surprised to find no mention of the Albanian crisis in 1997. I believe that it offers a strong example of how quickly and unexpectedly a (relatively) advanced society can descend into chaos, and how drastic the consequences can be.

For your readers (should you see fit to post this), I'll sum up. This is very basic information on the subject, and those readers who want to learn more can easily find more detailed info online.

Coming out from under the Iron Curtain, Albania was a fairly well-ordered nation. Obviously it was much less developed than the Western European nations, but it wasn't sub-Saharan Africa either. With the fall of communism, new ways of conducting business opened up, and new means of finance came about as well. Over a few years the economy became dominated by Ponzi schemes, and when these collapsed, the nation descended into complete chaos.

That's the quick and easy version. There are a few relevant things to learn here.

1. The people were taken in by a form of finance that they did not fully understand, or that had implications that they didn't grasp the magnitude of:
Ponzi schemes are a classic form of financial shenanigans, but don't dismiss the mistake of the Albanians as hopeless naivete. Ponzi schemes and related "investments" are alive and well today, and while we do have some safeguards against them now, many legal forms of investment can also have severely disruptive effects. Everyone knows about the problems stemming from failure among even the "experts" to grasp the problems in the American financial system, and anyone who thinks that the system is going to become significantly more stable and easily understood in the near future is deluding themselves.

2. The resulting collapse came quickly and was severe:
I believe that from the first indications of collapse to the complete breakdown of society took about a month. When society collapsed, it went really bad, really fast. The most vivid memory in my mind (from news broadcasts, I wasn't there myself) is of an 11 or 12 year old child leading his younger brother by the hand, with an AK type rifle over his shoulder for defense (or possibly predation). That's the kind of chaos we're talking about here. About 2,000 people out of a population of 3 million were killed in the chaos. That's a fairly small percentage, but it all happened over a month or two. Assuming two months, that's about a 0.4% fatality rate, if it were annualized (if I'm committing a mathematical or statistical fallacy here please feel free to correct me).

3. The chaos was for a limited time, and order was restored:
Those who survived the initial period of turmoil were able to rebuild. However, before someone looks at examples like these to plan how long they should prepare to hold out for, bear in mind that this was a relatively disarmed society, very small, located near many larger stable nations, and the recipient of an international (UN) stabilizing/peace keeping operation. In a nation like the US, a complete collapse could be more severe, harder for the world to halt or repair, and could in addition cause such severe economic disruption worldwide that no one would be able to help. The point I want to make here is, even if you can't move full time to the countryside and become self sufficient, you can still make preparations to survive a lot of situations in the short-term. And all things come to an end. There will be bad times to weather, and just as surely they will be followed by less bad times in which to prosper.

Hope this provides helpful food for thought.

May God bless you all, and keep you and yours, - JJ in North Carolina

JWR Replies: I appreciate you reminding our readers of the Albanian Crisis. This did, indeed come very close to a full-scale societal collapse death spiral. In my estimation, the reasons why it didn't get more prominent attention in the western media was because it took place in what could best be called a "backwater" region, and happened at the same time as the Kosovo crisis, which was considered the "bigger" story. (Read: The news camera crews were busy elsewhere, interviewing people that speak English. It is just human nature for journalists to prefer staying in a nice hotel in Belgrade, rather than some dump in Tirana.) Nor did journalists descend on Albania after the fact, to try to document what had happened. No, they were busy droning on and on about the death of Princess Diana, and the then-pending British handover of Hong Kong.

This timeline and these photos are indicative of what the media failed to properly cover.

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Letter Re: Feedback on The American Empire is Bankrupt

JWR:
I was puzzled by the piece by Chris Hedges (The American Empire is Bankrupt, from truthdig.com) that you linked to in Friday's SurvivalBlog. There are two huge, crucial, inestimable, incredibly fundamental flaws in Hedges' article:

* One is his assessment of the primary cause of the American national bankruptcy,
* The second is his conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as that bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives.

First, the fundamental causes of the American bankruptcy. Hedges quotes heavily from an article from & interview by The Financial Times' Michael Hudson. So that I don't take anything out of context, here is the text direct from Hedges' article, mostly quoting Hudson:

"The balance-of-payments deficit is mainly military in nature. Half of America’s discretionary spending is military. The deficit ends up in the hands of foreign banks, central banks. They don’t have any choice but to recycle the money to buy U.S. government debt. The Asian countries have been financing their own military encirclement."
"There are three categories of the balance-of-payment deficits. America imports more than it exports. This is trade. Wall Street and American corporations buy up foreign companies. This is capital movement. The third and most important balance-of-payment deficit for the past 50 years has been Pentagon spending abroad. It is primarily military spending that has been responsible for the balance-of-payments deficit for the last five decades."
"To fund our permanent war economy, we have been flooding the world with dollars. The foreign recipients turn the dollars over to their central banks for local currency. The central banks then have a problem."

These statements are partially true...as far as they go. But what is left out is more important than what is said. No discussion (in fact, not even a mention) of spending for the U.S. welfare state? Not even the slightest consideration of the fact that American military capabilities are clearly authorized as Constitutional responsiblities--but not our welfare state? This is, simply put, looney toons logic and math.

· Reasonable people can argue over costs, scope and effectiveness of U.S. military budgets/overseas operations (not to mention declared and undeclared wars) since 1916. But that's not where all the big money has been going. The serious spending increases in our budget are in domestic nanny statism, welfare, circuses and feasts—since at least 1965. You don't have to be a degreed economist to figure out that military spending constitutes "half of America’s discretionary spending" is because welfare state spending has been made non-discretionary! After all, that is why they're called entitlements!

o We could defund every military capability we have...but not a single welfare payment can be stayed legally by the hand of the President, his Cabinet, or the U.S. Congress. Welfare and nanny-state benefits are literally entitlements, and by law cannot be left unfunded.

· Things like welfare benefits, Section 8 Housing, etc., especially in this age of electronic payments, must be paid, even if the Congress does not pass those parts of the federal budget. (I believe this was written into law soon after the Clinton-Congress budget train wrecks in the 1990s.)

· If you cut the entire U.S. military budget in half, you only dent the deficit. But if you cut just 25% of the sum total of all welfare state benefits, there would be a huge annual federal budget surplus.

o I conclude Hedges' illogical placement of blame for the budget situation, and all of the impending consequences, are based on his political leanings... which are decidedly leftist, judging by this article. So, what is he trying to accomplish, since he is blaming the wrong folks for the crime?

Second, I completely and absolutely dispute (verily, even dismiss) Hedges' conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as the U.S. bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives. Hedges states that:

* "If [other nations] succeed [in dumping the U.S. dollar as the world's primary currency], the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak. And the rage that has kindled a handful of shootings and hate crimes in the past few weeks will engulf vast segments of a disenfranchised and bewildered working and middle class. The people of this class will demand vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal, which an array of proto-fascists, from the Christian right to the goons who disseminate hate talk on Fox News, will assure the country they will impose."

Hedges is saying, politely, that those crazy religious people clinging to their guns are already going nuts, and they will get even worse once they start starving! And all of the "proto-fascists," which presumably means all of those folks recently described in Department of Homeland Security memoranda as being "risks" [read: pro-life, pro-balanced budget, conservative, libertarian, pro-2nd Amendment, Christians, ministers, bishops, Ron Paul supporters, Republicans, etc.], will be using the opportunity to enact "vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal." What Hedges fundamentally has done is blame all the victims for being raped!!!

* I'm surprised he didn't go further and blame it on all of those evil "survivalists," but even looney tunes logic has trouble blaming the preppers for the very situation they've been predicting for a couple of decades now.

Personally, when TSHTF I won't be nearly as worried about "working and middle class" folks as I am about the welfare-dependent, “entitlements-R-us” folks. The working and middle class folks have the brains to figure things out--we've had a number of neighbors start quietly storing food and gear over the last six months--even the ones who (now regretfully) voted for Obama. But, as proven repeatedly during and after the Katrina crunch...it is the welfare-dependent underclass that will tear the cities and countryside apart. Can things get ugly among "working and middle class" types?? Of course. Still, I think most folks who actually work for a living will quickly band together for security and burden-sharing purposes to endure and survive. However, I'm far more skeptical about those who think "the government" owes them a living, no matter what the situation--survivalblog.com fans are well aware of the many violent examples of that syndrome following multiple disasters over the last decade. (If not, try a couple of internet searches for "Katrina violence" or "Katrina gun confiscation" or "Katrina looting" or...well, you get the idea.")

Bottom line: Hedges's article borrowed the language, analysis and conclusions of the prepper/survivalist/fiscal conservative movements--to use as a tool with which to attack them indirectly. Indeed, Hedges appears far more interested in painting the impending social unrest (read: welfare & food riots) as a tool of the another evil right wing conspiracy, than in acknowledging them as the inevitable consequence of the social policies he has supported and championed.

Many of us were taught in our youth that we should "dance with the girl what ya brung." I think Hedges has concluded his "girl" (read: politics) is darn ugly, emits foul body odors, suffers from multiple social diseases, and has bad teeth to boot. Not surprisingly, he now wants to switch partners while blaming it on all the other, far more circumspect squires at the Preppers' Informal Dance--but we shouldn't help him get away with it. Respectfully, - Gentleman Jim in Colorado.

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Sunday June 14 2009

Letter Re: Three Abstracts on Public Health in Ghettos During the WWII Holocaust

James,
In light of the recent shooting by a Nazi whacko in Washington at the Holocaust Museum, I think it is important that we remember the victims and impact of a totalitarian government deliberately starving, looting, and otherwise dehumanizing its citizens. (The articles were published in Hebrew but the following abstracts are in English) - Yorrie in Pennsylvania (a retired physician)

Clinical Manifestations of "Hunger Disease" Among Children in the Ghettos During the Holocaust
Hercshlag-Elkayam O, Even L, Shasha SM.
Western Galilee Hospital, Nahariya, Israel.

The harsh life in the ghettos were characterized by overcrowding, shortage of supplies (e.g. money, sanitation, medications), poor personal hygiene, inclement weather and exhaustion. Under these conditions, morbidity was mainly due to infectious diseases, both endemic and epidemic outbreaks with a high mortality rate. The dominant feature was hunger. Daily caloric allowance was 300-800, and in extreme cases (i.e. Warsaw ghetto) it was only 200 calories. The food was lacking important nutrients (e.g. vitamins, trace elements) leading to protean clinical expression, starvation and death. The clinical manifestations of starvation were referred to as "the Hunger Disease", which became the subject of research by the medical doctors in the ghettos, mainly in the Warsaw ghetto in which a thorough documentation and research were performed. The first victims of hunger were children. First they failed to thrive physically and later mentally. Like their elders, they lost weight, but later growth stopped and their developmental milestones were lost with the loss of curiosity and motivation to play. The mortality rate among babies and infants was 100%, as was described by the ghetto doctors: "when the elder children got sick, the small ones were already dead...". In the last weeks of the ghettos there were no children seen in the streets. In this article the environmental conditions and daily life of children in the ghettos are reviewed, and the manifestations of "Hunger Disease" among them is scrutinized.
[Harefuah. 2003 May;142(5):345-9]

Morbidity in the Ghettos During the Holocaust
Shasha, SM.
Western Galilee Hospital, Nahariya.

The environmental conditions and daily life in the ghettos of Europe during the holocaust are reviewed, and their effect on morbidity in different ghettos is scrutinized in an attempt to construct a typical morbidity profile. The outstanding characteristics were: crowding, shortage of basic necessities (such as food, clothing and medications), harsh environmental and sanitary conditions, inclement weather, poor personal hygiene, chronic undernutrition and malnutrition, physical and mental exhaustion. Morbidity was mainly due to infectious diseases, both endemic and epidemic outbreaks with high mortality, and high infestation rates of lice and other parasites. The dominant feature was "hunger disease" with its protean clinical expressions, endocine pathology, growth and development retardation in children, and amenorrhea and infertility among women of child-bearing age. Polyuria, nocturia and increased frequency of bowel movement were common. The typical presentation of a ghetto dweller was of extreme emaciation (a loss of up to 50% body weight); muscle weakness and skeletal abnormalities; pale, dry skin with excoriations; pedal edema; anxiety and nervousness; often goiter in children. Most of the inhabitants had some, or all, of those signs and symptoms (there were times when more than half the population was sick). This syndrome complex was termed "Ghetto Sickness" or "Ghetto Fatigue" (ghetto schwachkeit).
[Harefuah. 2002 Apr;141(4):364-8, 409, 408]

Medicine in the Ghettos During the Holocaust
Shasha, SM.
Western Galilee Hospital, Nahariya.

The Health systems in several ghettos in Europe during the holocaust were studied in an attempt to construct a typical structural profile. The medical system in a typical ghetto consisted of a department of public health (sanitation) that belonged to the Yudenrat, several hospitals, outpatient clinics, first aid stations and physicians in the labor groups. The structure of the system in several ghettos is discussed and the functions of the various units in the prevention of epidemics, and health education are reviewed. Also described is the medical research that was carried out in the ghettos, emphasizing the work on "Hunger Disease" in the Warsaw ghetto, as well as the heroic endeavor to establish a clandestine medical school in the Warsaw ghetto during the holocaust
[Harefuah. 2002 Apr;141(4):318-23, 412]

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Monday June 8 2009

Welcome to the Savage World of the Year 2009

"Welcome to the savage world of the year 2009". That was the tag line of the 1992 sci-fi film Freejack , starring Emilio Estevez. Do you remember it? The movie that featured Cadillac Gage V100 wheeled APCs painted in bright colors? My old friend All-Grace-No-Slack-Really-Reformed Kris just reminded me about this movie. Kris noted: "It was a bit corny but it had some good scenes and characters such as Amanda Plummer as the gun-toting nun." This film provides an insight on what futurists then thought 2009 would be like, as well as a retrospective on life in 1992.

Let's look back at 1992: It is amazing how much the world has changed since 1992. To me, it doesn't seem that long ago. In 1992 I was 32 years, old, and our first child was an infant. In 1992, .308 ball cost $180 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 cost around $350, and cases of MREs could be bought at gun shows for around $30 each. Back in those days, I was running a mail order business from home, selling magazines. I was buying M1 Carbine 15 round magazines in cases of 100, for $90 per case, and re-selling them by the onesees and twosees for $3 per magazine. (One of my "get rich slow" ventures.) In 1992, you could still buy a plane ticket for cash, and stroll right up to the departure gate without a ticket in hand. Yes, there was a metal detector, but you could board a commercial flight with a pocketknife with a single-edge blade less than 2-1/2" long. (Remember when knife catalogs had "Airline approved" models?) In 1992, gasoline was $1.05 per gallon ($1.09 for premium), and a good loaf of bread still cost 49 cents. In 1992 you could take a car trip into Mexico or Canada, with a smile and the wave of your state driver's license.

In 1992, I owned a small ranch near Orofino, Idaho. House prices there ranged from $39,000 to $155,000. (In 1989, we had paid $29,000 for an unfinished house on 40 acres.) Silver started that year at $4.20 per ounce, but drifted down to under $3.70 in December. (It was still in the midst of a two-decade long bear market.) A semi-auto AK-47 cost $179, an AR-15 was around $500, and an M1A was $800.

Fast forward to 2009: The local gun shops are chronically short of ammunition, and what little they do receive from their wholesalers sells out immediately, at an average of $1 per round. Today .308 ball costs $900 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 costs around $1,200. A case of MREs can cost upwards of $90, and a loaf of bread is anywhere from 99 cents for the dreadful "air bread" to $4.69 for the good stuff. Gas is back up to more than $2.50 per gallon. A semi-auto AK-47 costs around $700, a low-end AR-15 is around $1,200, and a standard grade M1A is $1,600 if you can find one. Today, people line up like sheep and remove their shoes before boarding an airplane, and opening a checking account requires umpteen pieces of identification. Now, thanks to "Homeland Security" regulations, they will turn you down if you don't have a physical street address. (BTW, that gets a bit sticky here in The Unnamed Western State, where lots of my neighbors live so far back in the boonies that they don't have a street address. The bankers get all befuddled if you start quoting the Township, Range, and Section numbers of your quarter-section.

In 2009, house prices are still plummeting from their 2006 highs, but still quite "spendy." A house around Orofino with a good spring now costs around $400,000. Who knows? In the current bear market, the price of houses may not bottom until they are close to their 1992 levels. Oh, and wait a minute! Firearms manufactuers are now working around the clock, and prices are expected to soon come back down. In 1992, a Steyr AUG cost $800, but then they peaked in 2008 at around $4,000. But now new production AUGs (made by Steyr in the US) have hit the market for under $1,800. You gotta love a free market economy. Maybe the more that things change, the more they remain the same.

The "Freejack" script was loosely based on Robert Sheckley's novel "Immortality, Inc." The screenwriters had a few things right, but plenty of things wrong. For example, the "destroyed ozone layer" hasn't wrecked our health. And I don't feel at risk of my brain being hijacked. But, then again, I don't own a television.

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Tuesday June 2 2009

Two Letters Re: Protection from EMP Effects for Photovoltaic Panels and Communication Gear

Jim,

I'm not very certain Solar Panels or photovoltaic (PV) Modules if you prefer) are up to surviving electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Solar Panel manufacture is akin to basically creating large scale photosensitive semiconductors and few manufacturers will quote even static electricity resistance, much less EMP resistance. Additionally, most PV modules have bypass diodes to protect cells. Some designs put these diodes in the junction boxes, while others incorporate them more integrally in the PV assembly.
Obviously the controllers are at great risk, but the modules themselves are not free from risk.

About the only references to PV and EMP you can find are discussions concerning space deployed PV Modules being at risk to solar flares, which have many characteristics of an EMP event.

I just made some queries with contacts at University of Manchester and Michigan Tech. They told me that there that almost no EMP test results have been released to public domain, but that their Aerospace departments feel that PV Arrays are vulnerable at the junction level as well as the wiring diode matrix and controller levels.

The [PV-powered] satellite literature repeats the observation that even a minor solar flare can wipe years to decades off of the life of a PV array and a full coronal mass ejection (CME) will take the array out. Though an EMP [cascade waveform] is not exactly the same radiation, the corollary is there.

Several of the Disaster Shelter Builders state that PV Panels are at risk in EMP and include shielded storage for "after the event panels." I wonder whether that is marketing hype or good science? For now, this is the best that I can find. - Steve W.

Mr. Rawles,
There is a very detailed 4-part article about EMP protection for Amateur Radio equipment. It's a study that was done by the ARRL in the mid 1980s. Product model numbers and such have changed, but the basic concepts haven't. If you want to just skip to the recommendations, go to "Part 4 of "Electromagnetic Pulse and the Radio Amateur".

In a nutshell, they make the following recommendations:
1. Your equipment will not survive a direct lightning hit no matter how well protected. EMP or near-misses can be protected against.
2. Install a high-quality surge protector on all AC power cords. You'll need to shop around to find one with the highest possible rating.
3. Install coax surge protectors (available from most ham radio suppliers) within 6 feet of the radio equipment to be protected.
4. Install a grounding antenna switch and keep the antennas grounded when not in use. (Note: antenna switches are often used when folks have multiple radios/antennas, such as a CB and ham radio or a 2 Meter VHF radio and a scanner. Make grounding the antennas part of your checklist when shutting down the station after use.
5. Get a piece of Copper plate or thick sheet metal, install it on the wall or workbench your equipment is on, and attach all equipment grounds and protection devices to this. Install a good Earth ground, per their guide. This basically consists of 2 or more standard electrical grounding rods connected with #6 solid Copper wire that is buried. I've found that the electrical panel bonding lugs sold in [building] contractor stores work great for this.

Finally, the book Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson H. Kearney [Available for free download] states that equipment such as hand held radios with short antennas (less than 14") should be okay against EMP. Grid connected electronics would be more vulnerable, and stuff with long antennas worse still.
Here are some quick links to EMP protection devices:

Solar Panel charge controller protection.

Coax lightning protection (manufacturer)

Cheers, - JN-EMT

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Friday May 29 2009

Mexican Flu Update:

Anger Over Breach of Quarantine in Oz

Swine Flu Infects 13,000 People in 46 Countries

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Thursday May 28 2009

Letter Re: A Ship's Belated Flu Quarantine as an Object Lesson

Hi Jim,
Here is a bit about the progress of Swine Flu in Australia with this article about a quarantined luxury cruise ship.

We now have a cruise ship, the P & O Pacific Dawn, being quarantined at Willis Island on the Great Barrier Reef – with 2000 people on board. Yesterday the ship was photographed flying the yellow quarantine flag! Our “brilliant” state health departments let 20 infected people disembark at Sydney and they [then] flew throughout Australia .

[Some background:] 13 of these people turned up at the Robina Hospital at the Gold Coast and the staff at the hospital had no idea what to do with them. The people were put in a single room with a single bed and most of the family was made to sleep on the floor. Authorities seemed to be clueless.

They (the New South S]Wales government) then let new passengers embark on the infected ship and let the ship leave Sydney on a trip. They also let three infected staff sail on the new voyage. No prizes for guessing what happened next. All people on board now exposed to the swine flu and the ship has been quarantined.

I really enjoy your web log and I have been sharing it with my friends. Keep up the great work and my prayers and best wishes to your wife with her illness. Yours sincerely - Jamie in Queensland, Australia

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Wednesday May 27 2009

Letter Re: Questions on EMP Protection

Hello Jim,
I recently finished reading [the recently-released novel] One Second After [by William R. Forstchen].The potential realities of this story can grab you. [In the novel] a young girl who dies because her insulin supply deteriorated. Lack of adequate refrigeration degraded the quality and effectiveness of the insulin.

I was reviewing some bug out literature and ran across a list of equipment that included a portable 12 VDC cooler unit. This would be great for transporting heat sensitive pharmaceuticals during a move of some distance.

My question is this: What effect would an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack have on this kind of machine? Does it contain modern circuitry that would be susceptible to the EMP effect?

The second question:
Are solar panels susceptible to EMP effect?
I am referring to just the panels and not associated secondary storage, control and electrical connections.

The third question:
The chargers that come with solar panels, spotlights, hand held radios, scanners and the like seem to be simple transformers.
But do they contain any circuitry that an EMP wave would destroy?

I read your site every day. Cordially, - JWC in Oklahoma

JWR Replies: In answer to your questions:

Even if your refrigerator has some microcircuits, it is probably not at risk to an EMP waveform, especially if it is running from a stand-alone 12 VDC power system. (Generally, devices that are connected to grid power are at greater risk of EMP coupling.) But just to be safe, when your compact refrigerator is not in use, you should store it in a galvanized steel garbage can (with a tight-fitting lid), to act as a protective Faraday cage.

Solar panels themselves are not at risk, but charge controllers and possibly inverters are, because they use microcircuits. Since protection via zener diodes is not always reliable, the most practical solution is to buy a couple of spare charge controllers, and store them in ammo cans.

« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Questions on EMP Protection »

Mexican Flu Update:

Scientist: UK Swine Flu Really 30,000

Swine Flu Spreading Wider Than Official Data Shows So, if just 1 in 20 confirmed cases are being reported in the US, then there are possibly now 100,000 US cases

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Tuesday May 26 2009

Mexican Flu Update:

Face Protection Effective in Preventing the Spread of Influenza, Study Suggests

Swine Flu Hits Spanish Military Base; 500 Quarantined

18 US Soldiers Have H1N1 in Kuwait

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Monday May 25 2009

Mexican Flu Update:

WHO Chief Says to Expect Severe Flu

Genetic Analysis of Swine Flu

WHO Warns of Double Influenza Threat

« Letter Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests |Main| Notes from JWR: »

Saturday May 23 2009

Five Months Till Armageddon--A Dark View of the Future, by H.I.C.

I believe that America is facing a perfect storm…A rapidly cooling climate, a committed socialist president taking over during an economic crisis, and an unfinished war with fanatical murderous thugs. I am only 49 years old, but I think my Father’s generation faced a similar storm starting in 1929. I believe we could handle any one of these problems by itself, but maybe not all at once. I wish I could suggest that we have more time and perhaps our economy will recover before a second crisis event occurs. Since the banking crisis started in August of 2007, and recessions typically last 2 -to-3 years, it should right itself by late 2010 if our government does not do something stupid. However, they are stupid and I believe we only have five months left to prepare.

I believe the climate is turning much colder due to a drop in sunspot activity. The most recent climate data shows this even if Al Gore insists on a recount (apparently Al flunked both math and science). I mention this because during the last Little Ice Age (1300-1850) global temps dropped by 3˚C, the farmland north of where Interstate 80 now transits reverted back to frozen marshlands, the Pacific Ocean cooled, and the resulting drop in moisture caused a prolonged drought in the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Perhaps a change to the climate of the primary agricultural areas of the US may affect your personal survival planning.

The drop in sunspot activity will also decrease the Earth’s electromagnetic field (Van Allen Belts) and ozone layer so in addition to cooling the planet it also and makes us more susceptible to solar induced damage to our nationwide electrical grid. If you here warnings about Solar flares or Solar mass ejections, wear sun block and a hat, and unplug your sensitive electrical equipment. If you are using solar panels expect a reduced output and be prepared to unplug and protect them as well.

Recently-elected President Obama is an immature Pollyanna with disturbing Marxist/Socialist friends and tendencies. He is taking over as the economy is rapidly contracting due to the falling stock market and declining home values. This crisis was actually caused by 25 years of expansionist policies of the US Federal Reserve, the US Treasury Department, and the US Congress. The massive bailout bill will not stop this, but instead will continue to feed the debt-based economy and currency expansion that caused it. Federal nationalization of the commercial banking system is just the beginning. Obama is loading up his cabinet with the most partisan members of the Clinton Administration. While Government intervention into banks and businesses is already occurring, it is likely that they will also nationalize/regulate individual retirement accounts, taxable investments, and individual rights and choices of work, travel, and association. This is not what he tells us he plans to do, this is what socialists always do, this is the change you can not afford.

We have fought to contain the terrorists in the Middle East and are finally winning in Iraq. However, keeping them there will require a continual military presence. Obama has promised to pull back the US military from Iraq, perhaps worldwide, and may reduce the size of the regular Army to fund his civilian defense force. What we learned about terrorist is that any pull back in our military posture will encourage them to strike us again. The only way to win is to aggressively pursue them and the only way to loose is to pull back and let the extremists take over the Iraqi and Saudi oil fields.

The President and the people now running DHS, FEMA, the Justice Department, and Interior Departments believe in the power of the Federal Government like a prostate religion. While they would not think this far ahead, it is inescapable that when they meet with resistance from the people the will use the US patriot act against us. Since he will be so busy spying on the vast right wing conspiracy, I expect a terrorist attack on major US cities could again occur within 6 – 8 months of Obama taking the oath of office and turn the economic crisis into a full blown depression.

No matter what the trigger event, President Obama, and his Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, stated that they will use this crisis as an opportunity to turn the county socialist. Some of the conditions I have described have distinct warning signals, such as censorship of the internet and talk radio or onerous gun control laws, but some of them are naturally occurring and completely unpredictable. I don’t believe it much matters what the event is, I believe that the result will be the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (Civil War, Famine, Pestilence, and Death).

Scenario 1: Collapse of the Banking System, Devaluation of the US Dollar, and Civil War.
The US credit market has already frozen up once (Oct 08) due to the failure of several investment banks and credit insurance companies. Without a systematic effort to draw down the risk exposure of these banks to bad home loans and derivatives it is nearly certain that many of the largest commercial banks will fail as well. The FDIC does not have the money to pay off account holders, so the US Congress will just print more money and effectively nationalize the banks.

I expect that the world economy will continue to slide into a multi-decade depression with the Dow dropping to 2,000 and unemployment reaching 20%. I expect this to cause rioting, starvation, and civil war occurring in every state and country. If we can not feed them, I expect that over one third of the world population could die due to starvation and disease.
The US may literally split politically between the urban dominated cities of the Northeastern states trying to tie themselves to Europe and the rest of the US dominated by the Midwest, Rocky Mountains, and Ohio Valley which will tie themselves to domestic agriculture and re-industrialization. Only the far western fringe will remained tied to trade with China and the Pacific Rim. There should be no expectation of receiving by Federal Retirement, Social Security, Medicare, or 401(k) money. In fact, I expect that the US Dollar will be abandoned by most folks long before it is officially replaced by silver coins. Before this time most folks will prefer to trade using storable food, ammo, and labor as the coin of the realm.

Scenario 2: Multi-City Terror Strike and Loss of Constitutional Rights.
It is also very possible for a deeply planted terrorist cell living in the US pull off a coordinated strike using conventional explosives to rapidly disperse a chemical or radioactive agent. They may attack the large cities, the critical Military bases, shipping channels, ports, and locks, and our remaining overseas Navy and Air Force Bases. These strikes will kill a few civilians, but mostly they will force the permanent evacuation of our major cities and ports.

They will cripple Washington DC, but will not kill off many of our politicians. The initial reaction from the Obama Administration looks like suspending the Constitution and our rights to gun ownership, private property, free association and travel. I believe they will quarantine the cities, suspend air travel, limit interstate travel by citizens, and turn the electronic eavesdropping ability of the NSA on the American people.

What is left of the economy will crash. Few people will have jobs and no one will be able to buy food and fuel on the open market. We will have to survive on what we have stored, what we can grow, trade, or what little the government can supply.

While rolling blackouts are inevitable, maintaining natural gas and at least the semblance of electrical power will be a priority. No doubt maintaining power in the remaining cities will come first. Most of the oil refineries will be affected and the gas and diesel that is refined will not be distributed evenly. Our system of intensive, almost industrial scale farming will collapse, and that year’s crop will fail due to the loss of irrigation. People will starve while crops rot in the fields.

Preparedness Measures

SurvivalBlog is full of detailed advise on preparing so I will only hit a few highlights.

Prepare yourself physically:
Every possible scenario will be physically and mentally stressful.

Have a Plan B:
Have a bug-out kit ready at all times, store fuel, and maintain your ride.
Have a hard copy of important papers, account and insurance numbers and phone numbers.
Have portable weapons and ammo ready to haul.

Logistics and Planning:
Route selection is very, very important.
What to drive, what to pack.
Avoid the swamps (the inner cities).

Long Term Considerations:
Build a survival retreat in a viable agricultural area.
Plan on needing a lot more supplies than you think you might.
Plan and decide how to deal with the Feds (hint: lie, lie, lie).
Plan and decide how to deal with unprepared people

« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests »

Mexican Flu Update:

Kudos to KAF for sending this piece: Researchers: Swine Flu Genes Swirled for Decades Undetected

Emergency Preparedness Exercises Held at Banks

Swine Flu Spreads in Australia

Some Older People May Be Immune to Swine Flu

Swine Flu Extends to Tokyo; 11,000 Cases Worldwide

56 Hospitalized with Swine Flu in NYC

Dr. Niman's World Flu Tracking Map

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Thursday May 21 2009

Biological Threat Assessment and Containment, by Anon.T

When either you or your group is confronted with a biological threat [such as a pandemic or biological warfare], you must determine the following before making decisions either for yourself or for your group.

1) What is the threat?
2) What is the incubation period prior to showing symptoms?
3) How contagious is the threat?
4) By what means is the threat contagious?
5) What is the morbidity rate?
6) What is the mortality rate?

Once you have determined these things, you can make sound decisions that can get you and your group through a trying time.

Quarantine:
In the event that you are forced to deal with new members joining your group, [during a pandemic] you will need to quarantine them for a set period of time. This will assure you and your group that the new-comer's presence does not cause harm within your group.

To set up quarantine you will need the following items which will be detailed below:

Shelter
Food & Water
Disinfectant
Communication equipment -or- Another pre-determined way of communicating with the quarantined.
Medicine
Symptom measuring devices and charts.
Rules that the quarantined must follow if they wish to become part of your group.
A plan should the quarantined not follow those rules.
A plan should the quarantined show symptoms and/or become sick.
A way for the quarantined to expel waste that does not pose a risk of infection to other members of the group.
There is not a single point above that can be neglected for any reason. Having to survive a biological threat has nothing to do with niceties or with comfort.

Shelter:
A place [that is downwind,] away from all group activity for the person(s) in question to be quarantined. How far away is far enough? Miles would be great but it is probably not economical so do with what you have to ensure that your group never gets within a 1,000 feet of the quarantined.

Food & Water:
Whatever the food and water that you supply or that your possible guests bring, they must have means of making it safe for human consumption.

Disinfectant:
You and the quarantined must be able to protect yourselves from the environment and the biological threat. A strong bleach solution, a rag and a bucket would be fine for disinfecting everything. Alcohol sanitizer and anti-bacterial soap are luxuries if you can afford them.

Communication:
The group and the quarantined must be able to communicate for numerous reasons. Humans get pent up if they are left in a confined place to their own devices for long and to limit the risk of the quarantined coming too close to the group, they must be able to communicate with the group from a safe distance.

Two-way radios with rechargeable batteries and a way to recharge them at the quarantine site make the best answer to the communication problem, the only problem is that they are expensive to have spares around and impossible to outlast the quarantine if power isn’t available to recharge them.

In the absence of two way radios, your group should have a pre-determined plan for communication should anyone be at risk for the threat, including any quarantined individuals.

The group should never risk entering a place of possible contamination if it can be avoided in any way, so a group should have a Communication Center set up some distance away from the quarantined and a further distance away from the group.

To allow the best ventilation, Communication Centers should never be indoors so a tree, a table or a large rock, all make adequate places.

Each member (the group and the quarantined) should have a pen and multiple sheets of paper (A dry erase board for each group would do fine) of their own to write on and leave at the communication center. Each member should understand the nature of the quarantine and the time at which the papers will be picked up, read and possibly replied to that is consistent with the length of time that the biological threat is thought to stay active on paper.
(e.g: Every 3 hours from __ a.m. - __ p.m.)

Medicine:
Your group should have medicine that can be used to treat common pains and injuries so that the quarantined can be comfortable and it will be easier to gauge their symptoms if they should have any.

Symptom Measuring Devises:
You should include devises that allow the measuring of all symptoms familiar to the threat. Some adequate symptoms measuring devices include a Thermometer, a watch for checking pulse and blood pressure and so on.

Rules:
Your group should have rules that everyone in the group must follow and separate rules that the quarantined must follow if they wish to eventually enter your group. These rules must include items like; Staying at least _00(0) feet away from every member of the group at all times, keeping the quarantine area clean and free of infection, following proper communication procedures, washing all contaminated clothing upon entering the quarantine area and being honest with the progression of any and all symptoms including minor symptoms that may or may not be related to the threat.

Contingency plan for symptoms within the quarantined:
This plan needs special consideration because the quarantined may be members of one’s own family or close friends and particular thought must be given to how they will handle the onset of symptoms and how the group must handle the quarantined should they become less than complacent including delivery of proper medication to treat the threat.

Contingency plan if the quarantined does not follow the rules:
This plan should be relatively simple. Anyone who puts your group’s health and safety at risk by not following the rules is not a valued member of any group and should be avoided like the threat itself.

Waste Expulsion:
Human waste is possibly a carrier of the threat and since it cannot be avoided it should be taken into consideration.

If there is a working toilet and sink at the quarantine site, by all means use it.

In place of a working toilet and sink, the quarantined will have to take special measures to not endanger the group. In an outdoor environment, the group will have to dig a hole at the quarantine site (Prior to the visitor’s arrival) at least 5-6 feet deep and mark that area with a flag easily visible to both the quarantined and the group. The quarantined will then need to expel all human waste in that hole and only in that hole (to limit the exposure of contaminants to the quarantine site) and then kick a little bit of the pre-dug dirt back into the hole covering the excrements.

This is the time where a little lime would go a long way. If at all possible to acquire, get some lime prior to the threat to have on storage for just such a need.

Quarantine Items:
2 - 5 Gallon bucket(s) or the equivalent.
Bleach
Rag(s)
Anti-Bacterial soap
Food that does not need cooking (Min. of incubation period worth of food if able to spare) and additional food left at communication center every day.
Water or a clean water source
2 way radios with rechargeable batteries and a battery charger
Paper and Pens should the 2-way radios give out
Gloves
Mask(s)
Flag(s) for marking human waste site
Watch for keeping time for communication and symptoms
Thermometer
Toilet Paper (If available)
Quarantine Item Set Up:
All should be able to fit within the 5 gallon bucket with the exception of food and water (Though a little will be placed in there in advance) including the following items placed on the top:

Rules of the group
Expected quarantine Time
Rules of quarantine
Rules of communication

Rules:
This will be a pre-printed or pre-written page that will be given to the prospective guests to read and decide whether they are willing to do the things necessary to join the group.

Hello,
We are very glad to see you healthy and well and are taking the health and wellness of our group extremely serious. In doing so, we have implemented rules that you must adhere to without exception if you wish to join our group.

These rules may seem tedious but we are not taking chances when human life is at stake just as we will not take chances in protecting your health or the health of any new members to our group.

Firstly, we will not be having any face to face communication. In place of this, we will provide, among other things, a 2 way radio, rechargeable batteries and a battery charger so that we may communicate with each other at all times (or another way of communicating as described later).

The current known incubation period of the threat that we face together is ____ hours or __ days. If you wish to join our group, you will be forced to quarantine yourself in a location that we provide or set for ____ hours or __ days to ensure your safety and the safety of our group. If you are not willing to follow these rules including duration of quarantine, kindly set down this sheet of paper now and walk away.

At no time will a group member come within 500 – 1,000 feet of you during your time in quarantine. This is for the protection of all members of the group and yourself. Do not violate this rule – Use the radio or the aforementioned way of communicating in it’s place.

Once you enter your quarantine location, you will be required to stay within _00(0) feet of your quarantine location until the time of quarantine is over. If you breach this _00(0) feet marker which we will set or determine, you will no longer be eligible for joining our group. Please follow this rule.

If you do not have food and water with you, food and water will be provided for you at a drop point that we will disclose later.

Human Waste:
There will be a pre-dug designated latrine that will be used for the disposal of all human waste. Human waste, which already poses a health safety hazard is not to be expelled into any container but dropped directly from your body into the designated latrine as you “go to the bathroom” after which you are required to kick dirt or shovel lime back into the latrine to cover the waste.

Food disposal:
Only prepare as much food to eat and you are going to eat. Any food that is not consumed is to be buried with the waste as noted above.

Self evaluation and symptom reporting:
We will provide you with the tools necessary to evaluate yourself. You will be required to evaluate yourself twice a day, once in the morning and once before bed. You must answer all items honestly. You are to report the following items to the group:

Appetite: None, Normal or Excessive
Vision: Clear, Blurry or Normal
Fluid Consumption: Normal, Heavy or Low
Temperature:
Physical Well-Being: Tired, Energetic or Normal
Medications taken within the last 24 hours:
Pain: None or on a level of 1 – 10 with 10 being the worst pain you’ve ever felt.
Stress Level: Low, Moderate or High
Symptoms: ________
Urine Excretion: Yellow, Cloudy or Clear (Was there a hot or burning sensation when urinating?)
Waste Excretion: How many times a day and; Loose, firm, normal or painful.
Staying Healthy:
We expect that you came to us healthy and we want to see you remain that way. Please eat 3 meals every day, drink plenty of liquids, busy yourself with items you brought or by writing a story (not involving the current situation but rather one that is purely fictional) and following the listed daily exercise recommendations:

Walking: Even in a confined area, walking moves the blood through your system and will provide a healthier you.
Arm and leg stretches: Stretching your arms and legs is a fundamental need that every body has.
Not staying in one spot or position for an extended period of time.
Brushing your teeth daily with or without toothpaste and brushing your body down (dry shower) with a rag are two essential ways of staying healthy.
Please do not perform any muscle building or muscle retaining exercises during this time. Muscle building exercises break down your current muscle to rebuild more and releases toxins into your system. Refrain from any such activity during this time so as not to confuse the symptoms of muscle breakdown with symptoms of the threat.

Positive Thought:
Negative thought will not be tolerated in our group. You are a strong person and you will get through this. Please do not let the dire nature of this threat overwhelm your sense of self worth or the free will that God gave to you. If the threat seems overwhelming, know that you are strong and pray for the endurance to see this through.

Carried Item Quarantine:
Please understand that the items that you brought with you may carry the threat on them for an unknown amount of time. The group will decide which items can be cleaned, used or disposed of without hesitation or regard to personal feelings. You may at no time keep an item that the group feels is dangerous.

That is it. Those are the rules required by anyone who wishes to join our group and anyone who leaves our group for any amount of time.

If you are not 100% sure that this move is right for you and 100% sure that you will abide by these rules, there will be no hard feelings between us. Please put this paper down on the ground, wave a goodbye and walk away now.

We thank you for your patience and understanding during these difficult times that we all must face.

If you are positive beyond doubt that you will abide by these rules and any rules that the group may impose in addition to these, please fold this paper up and place it in either your shirt or pants pocket. At this time we will disclose the location of items that we will be providing you and further our communication together.

Go on to Document #2

Document #2 – On a separate sheet of paper

Hi,

We are very glad that you have chosen to quarantine yourself from our group before joining it. This shows that you care as much about our well being as we do yours and proves your willingness to put the group’s needs ahead of your own. In no way does quarantine mean isolation, we look forward to communicating with you using the two way radios that we will provide or the use of a communication center that we will set up.

We know that this can be an emotional time. Please do not let your emotions run your self control, will for life or care for others. We are here to communicate with you throughout this entire time and we look forward to spending time with you once you join our group.

The location