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« Two Letters Re: Prepping as an Active Duty Servicemember Overseas |Main| Letter Re: Gerald Celente Predicts Survivalism Will Go Mainstream in 2010 » Saturday December 19 2009Letter Re: Making Low Profile Firearms Purchases
James, 1.) Today my husband stopped by the gun store to inquire about pistol and shotgun prices. They quoted him on some used ones that sound reasonable for our tight budget. Is there any reason to avoid used guns from a reputable dealer?. 2.) Then he told the clerk that his wife asked him to check into an AR-15. The clerk's response was "What would she need that for?" How do you go about purchasing such a weapon without looking like a loon? What should the response be to questions like that? Many thanks, - Janice in Virginia JWR Replies: I recommend avoiding any un-necessary firearms purchase paper ptrails.We have no way of predicting how firearms laws might change in the future, so it is wise to not leave an audit trail. If your state law allows it, then I strongly recommend that all of your subsequent firearms purchases--most importantly handguns--be made from private parties who live in the same state, at gun shows or through auction services such as GunBroker.com, AuctionArms.com, or fixed-price sellers through GunsAmerica.com. Newspaper ads by private party sellers are also a possibility--and often some real bargains can be found--but of course your local selection will be much smaller. Because all sales of modern (post-1898 manufacture) firearms bought from (or transferred through) a Federal Firearms License (FFL) holder must be put on permanent record, a paper trail cannot be avoided. So again, your best alternative is to make only private party gun purchases, without an FFL in the loop. « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: Sources for Prescription Medications? » Thursday December 10 2009Letter Re: We Have Some Hard Decisions Ahead
Dear SurvivalBloggers: People who relied on spouses to pay the bills are now paying the bills. Those who have relied on savings and unemployment benefits to maintain their standard of living are now faced with the reality that those resources are exhausted. Bills are not being paid. Healthcare premiums are not being paid. Automobile and household maintenance is being neglected which will create costlier repairs down the road. Simply put:
Basic human needs will become the biggest priority in your life after you shed the things that have merely brought comfort and convenience to you. You may be forced to downscale your lifestyle so dramatically that it will cause you to question your own intelligence and hindsight for not planning for such a life changing event. The things that you have always taken for granted could become difficult to obtain now that there is no longer enough money to buy those things. Basic needs become vital issues that need to be addressed:
The times that we endure today will be the history that others will read tomorrow. History has shown us events that have destroyed some societies and created new ones to take their place. Those who rise to power often decide the fate of millions. And there have been times when a people rise up as a nation, united to achieve mutual goals of prosperity and hope for a better future. Today as a nation, Americans must uphold their moral convictions and beliefs that a nation of people that stand united will not perish. There are events occurring in this country that could change the very existence of our nation as we know it. And no one person or political party can decide the best course of action to insure our prosperity and hopes will not be taken away from us. The answer to our problems is right in front of us, and we must cling to it as if it is our only hope, because it is the only thing We The People have left: The Constitution of the United States of America . We must set aside our differences and unite as a nation before those that would profit from our demise succeed in destroying us. - T.R. in, Florida « Letter Re: Another COMSEC Warning on Social Networking Web Services |Main| In Praise of Betadine, by A. Woofer » Thursday December 3 2009Three Letters Re: Securing Bedroom Doors Against Home InvadersJWR, James Wesley; I am also considering installing a trap door in each bedroom that leads to the crawl space under the house so we can exit with weapons when needed. Trapdoor would be hidden under a small area rug with rug attached to door so when it is used and then closed, there is no evidence of the trap door. I love the wide variety of ideas your readers share. Regards, - Marc N. in Alabama In my opinion a bedroom door should be constructed like an [exterior] entry door. It is the last layer in a layered defense. For a balance between cost and security, I recommend a commercial steel door and frame, of the type commonly seen on the side walls of box stores, movie theatres, etc. (these doors are available with armor steel lining but the cost is very high- we are talking here of a standard 16 gauge door.) A door and frame, new, will run roughly $500. I suspect they are available much cheaper on the used architectural salvage market. Get one bored for a lockset and deadbolt., and a double deadbolt bore (two deadbolts) would be even better. Make sure both sides of the door stamping are welded together at the lockset and deadbolt areas. The supplier should be able to do this work. Usually they will come cut for three heavy duty hinges-use a top grade hinge and commercial deadbolt. A flat faced door is easiest to modify for appearance, anything from paint, to a solid wood veneer can be applied. They do come with a pressed panel look also. This door will not be a box store item, look for an architectural supply house. In regard to the poster's query, I would recommend changing the double doors for a large single door. It is much harder to secure a set of double doors, as the one anchors to the other-- to make it really secure, the first door will be anchored to the floor and top jamb, and be such a hassle to use it will never be opened anyway. Have the opening framed in for a 36" or 42" single door, this gives an opportunity to do the reinforcement of the framing at the same time. Block in between the studs with 3/4" plywood, glue and screw down the plates (bottom framing member) to the floor. Framing and contractors: Obviously the door is no more secure than the wall itself- some dry wall may have to be removed and plywood attached to strengthen it. Think about this- what you are trying to accomplish is two things, to prevent the door from being compromised by having it pushed out of position- either by having the jamb pried away from the door far enough to allow the deadbolt to release, or by having the stud the steel frame surrounds, pop or slip where it is attached to the rest of the framing. Plywood stiffeners between the studs will help with spreading, and making sure the framing components are screwed together will help to make sure it does not come apart. Some places may need a bolted in angle iron or similar to reinforce. Also make sure the hollow metal door jamb has wood blocking that backs up to the deadbolt pocket-no good having a solid door and framing if the jamb can be bent back far enough to pop the deadbolt free. Most contractors are going to be thinking in standard house terms. So instead, find one who will get the hint. This is probably someone who has worked on high end homes and custom jobs)--you want a door/jamb/frame assembly that will withstand a sledgehammer or a battering ram. It should buy at least a few minutes of time under attack- time to arm up, call the police, position yourself, and so forth. And as a side note-consider the access to the door-if it is tough to swing a sledge or use a ram, so much the better. Five minutes does not sound like a long time - compared to the mere seconds a standard door will resist attack, it is an eternity. Where the door is placed has a major effect on it's strength, and method of reinforcement. Some doors may be at wall junctions, head of stairs, etc where there is a lot of internal framing, and there may be no easy access through an adjacent wall. The worst would be a door in the middle of a flat wall, with no interior cabinetry- in such a case, Mr. Rawles pointed out, the wall can be easily breached through the drywall. In any such case, it may be easiest to attach 3/4" plywood over the existing drywall, then attach another layer of drywall or finish material over the plywood. There should be no "drywall only" walls within arm's reach of a door knob! It is too easy to punch through the drywall and unlock the door. Consider a small camera to cover the door, so you can see, from the inside , what is going on. And figure out what is next- the door will buy you time to wake up, and prepare-think about how you will use the layout of your space to best defend it. Also consider a "cage and door " type arrangement at the top of the stairs, made of openwork wrought iron or similar. This is common in some countries. Last but not least, make sure that you have a way to get out in an emergency. A house fire is one of the more likely "survival " scenarios! [JWR Adds: Yes, and far more more likely than a home invasion.] My condolences on the parting from your wife-may you be reunited in everlasting peace by our Infinite Creator. JWR Replies: I concur that "plywood, glue and power screws" are your friends when your goal is delaying home invaders. I must mention that I have had some consulting clients that took layered defense to extremes. For instance, one of them that lives in Central America had a house custom-built with the bedrooms located over a combination vault-basement. Not only didhe beef up the bedroom door, but the bedroom closets were reinforced to good "panic room" specifications, using two thicknesses of marine plywood on five sides, and steel exterior doors with three door deadbolts at the top, middle, and bottom. Both of these closets have trap doors and ladders to the basement. Imagine the frustration of would-be kidnappers to batter down multiple layers of plywood defense, only to face a blank steel plate trapdoor surrounded by concrete! « Letter Re: Distilled Spirits for Barter |Main| Two Letters Re: Mountain Money Isn't » Monday November 30 2009Letter Re: Securing Bedroom Doors Against Home InvadersDear Mr. Rawles, I will try to keep this short. Hopefully my question might come in handy for a number of your readers. First, thank you for your site and your publications. I am almost finished with "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It" and am about 50 pages into your "Rawles Gets You Ready" family preparedness course. So far I am loving them both. I am reading quickly through them first and next my wife and I will study them thoroughly together, adapting the information and creating our "list of lists." Now, I have a question for you or perhaps your readers. I live in a suburb of Denver, though a fairly distant one. Our town is wonderful, and are area is very safe, relatively speaking. We own our home outright, and we are very blessed. That said, due to a handful of reasons, relocation is not an option for us. Therefore, my goal has been to not only stock up, but to fortify my home against those who may not be prepared WTSHTF. Your resources are getting me through most of my preparations, but my question has to do with fortification and the securing of some of my home. Specifically, the design of our house is such that the master bedroom and my girls' room would be very defensible and secure if only I could install the most secure doors possible. It may seem like overkill, but the peace of mind I would have by doing this would do wonders for my sleeping when things go bump in the night or worse. The rooms are connected via the closets and soon I will be putting in a doorway between the two. The bedroom doors themselves have no exposed wall on either side, but instead fit perfectly into entry hallways, for lack of a better way of describing them. The girls' room is a single wide, "normal" door. Unfortunately, the master is a double wide typical door. The latter will prove more difficult to secure, which is another reason why I want a professional to help me. While I am trying to learn more and more about these kinds of things, I would like to have secure doors installed ahead of my learning curve, and so I am looking for some advice. Basically, I am hesitant to simply start calling around for contractors and asking them if they can do the job because, especially in this economic climate, I can imagine most of them claiming they can do anything. Money is a big issue and I don't have much of it, so I need to make sure it is done correctly the first time. So, does anyone have any thoughts or recommendations for me? I will need to have someone do it for me as I don't have the tools or know-how. I need it to be done right the first time. I am concerned about asking just any contractor to do the job, and I am not sure what I would ask for exactly either, in order to avoid mistakes and confusion. On the other hand, I would imagine that the job would be too small for companies that specialize in secure building. So there you have it. I think there are probably a lot of people like me who are not able to relocate or establish a more secure retreat, and who will have to make the best of what they have and where they are. Securing one's home is something most of us will have to address sooner or later, and the sooner the better. Furthermore, money will often mean that building a Safe Room from scratch is out of the question and smaller measures like securing doors, walls, etc. may be all one can do. We are the people who are wanting more than the average person but are not able to take advantage of what places like Safecastle and Hardened Structures have to offer. And some are even more like me in that they are really out of their element when it comes to this stuff. In addition to being a wise investment for TEOTWAWKI, it is also a very responsible and reassuring measure to take in case of home invasion or break-ins. If I can only get my doors established, I will have very little fear if I hear someone break in in the night. Instead, I will have time to reinforce my doors, check my outside video cameras from my bedroom, know that my girls are safe and with me, and contact help via my multiple communication options in my room. And of course, I will be able to establish a position with my firearms if for some ridiculous reason the intruder is determined to get to me. I don't believe it is overkill, but being a responsible father. Thank you for your time. God bless you and your work. - Dan M. JWR Replies: Typical American home construction since the 1940s has used sheetrock (aka gypsum board) for interior partition walls. So if you beef up any interior doors (typically by replacing them with solid core doors, adding longer hinge screws, deadbolt locks, and/or door bars), then keep in mind that the adjoining walls will then become the most likely point of entry. These walls can be kicked through, in very little time. Once breached, since typical stud spacing is 16 or even as much as 24 inches apart (in non-code regions), home invaders can then just walk in to the adjoining room. Therefore, short of beefing up the walls themselves, by beefing up your bedroom doors, all you've done is bought yourself a bit of extra time. Keep a cell phone handy by your bedside, since hard wire phone lines can be cut. Every teenage and adult member of the family should also be thoroughly trained with firearms, and keep both a gun and a powerful flashlight (such as a SureFire On a related note, for new construction, and remodels, I've recommended that my consulting clients use 3/4 inch plywood or OSB for one side of their bedroom walls. When this sheeting is attached with drywall screws, los malo hombres will exhaust themselves by the time they ever get through a wall that is thus reinforced. « Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday November 20 2009Letter Re: Short Term Survival or Long Term Self-Sufficiency? Hi James, I have to take issue with your blog though. It focuses on survival in the short term (maximum five years after collapse). It does not give direction for how to proceed from there, how to thrive, how to rebuild society (or rather, how to build a better society). Surviving the collapse on modern medicine only to die from disease when it runs out is pointless. Surviving only to find that your gene pool is too small to survive into the coming centuries, or that you don’t have enough books or ways to copy them (or write new ones), and thus pass knowledge on... It makes a mockery of survival. Short term focus is what got us into this mess. Let’s have some longer term articles on what we should do to lay the foundations for our children and grandchildren, and more distant descendants, to thrive. Also, I do not see any articles on how to disappear from view of satellites, or other high-tech surveillance equipment, or how to fight against a modern army. I know it might sound ridiculous, and it is a conspiracy theory (and those are nowadays automatically disreputable), but I do not think that we are in this mess entirely by accident. The constriction of our seed supply to a few large corporations is deliberate. That there exist doomsday shelters with high technology for the elite is known. Might there not be at least some deliberate engineering of the current crisis? And, if so, might it not be with a view to facilitating control by the elite? A reduced world population would be easier to control. One desperate for food, shelter, medicine etc. would do some presently inconceivable things – such as surrendering freedom in exchange for those “necessities”. I am speaking here of the Mark of the Beast: subdermal microchips. We might find ourselves fighting against much nastier groups than mere marauders. If I am correct, much of that situation will be out of our hands anyway – it’s the Lord’s battle. But that doesn’t mean we can just sit back and say “I don’t have to do anything.” Regards, - David in South Africa JWR Replies: I think that you drew a conclusion about SurvivalBlog without digging very deeply. If you take the time to work your way back through the SurvivalBlog Archives (now nearly 8,000 archived posts), you will indeed find a large number of posts that discuss long term self sufficiency. These articles and letters cover steam power, home-made fuels, photovoltaics, micro-hydro power systems, home-grown herbal medicines, low tech do-it-yourself architecture (including rammed earth, adobe bricks, discarded tire Earthships), blacksmithing, home chemistry, farming, aquaculture, wood and coal heating, saddle and draft horses, primitive weapons, leather working, community organizing, gravity-flow water systems, traditional carpentry (without power tools), and much, much more. For discussions specifically about long term scenarios, be sure to use the search word "multigenerational." To provide some ideas on how to fight against a modern army, I wrote "Patriots:
A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse" « Letter Re: Retreat Commo and Monitoring Suggestions from a Ham Operator |Main| Reader Poll Results: Your Favorite Movies with Survival Themes » Tuesday November 3 2009Letter Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal CollapseMr. Rawles, Having worked for the Army for 27 years in a number of different failed countries I may have a unique perspective on survival that I would like to share with your readers. I believe most of the "survivalist community" is vastly underestimating the impact that other humans are going to have on their plans. Hunkering down and waiting for everyone to die off is a simplistic plan and I believe has almost no chance of working. You may be able to hide your retreat, but you can't hide the land it sits on. That land itself may become a scarce commodity if the US transitions to an agrarian economy. Food is the key resource. Most communities are at risk because they simply don't have enough calories stored to get them through any kind of crisis. But, storage is no more than limited capital to allow people time to grow more food. Food production requires land....if your retreat is sitting on farmable land, it will be a scarce resource. Carrying capacity of the US using non-petroleum farming techniques is far lower than most of your readers probably think. Also, most areas of the US, especially cities, don't have anywhere near enough farm-able land to go back to some kind of agrarian pattern. Without public infrastructure and modern transportation, we are going to experience a huge die-off caused mostly by starvation. In a total collapse scenario without immediate restoration of the economy, basically everyone who lives in a city is doomed unless they can take over some kind of farm land. If you live in an area without enough farm land, you will be a "have not". Period. I don't care how much food you have stored in your basement. Here is my key point. These teeming millions will not just starve and go away. I believe that anyone who thinks they can defend a working farm against raiders is deluding themselves. 1. People are dangerous. They are the most dangerous animal on earth. You can never lose sight of that! In almost any society breakdown scenario you can think of, you will be surrounded by starving predators that are much more dangerous than tigers. In the USA, every one of them (or at least the vast majority) will be armed with firearms. The ones currently without firearms will obtain them by any means necessary including looting government armories. These are thinking-breathing and highly motivated enemies. 2. Raiders, defined as "outlaw looting groups" may be a threat for a very short period, but I really don't see groups of more than 4-6 ever forming...they will be quickly replaced by much larger groups of "citizens" doing essentially the same things, but much better armed and organized. An Example: A few hours after Albania's political crisis in 1998, (which was caused by a national lottery scam), almost every adult male in the country procured an AKM from government stocks. Armories were the first targets looted. I flew into Tirana packing a pistol and a sack of money, naively thinking I would be able to move around the country and defend myself. What a laugh. Everyone had me outgunned, and the vast majority of them had military training of some sort. I never got out of the capital city. Every road seemed to have roadblocks every few miles, blocked by armed local citizens. 3. Without central authority, people don't just starve and go away. They form their own polities (governments). These polities are often organized around town or city government or local churches. They may call it a city counsel or a committee or a senate. The bottom line is, "We The People" will do whatever "We" have to do to survive. And that specifically includes taking your storage goods. 4. When (not if) a polity forms near you, you had better be part of that process. If not, you will be looked upon as a "resource" instead of a member of the community. The local polity will pass a resolution (or whatever) and "legally" confiscate your goods. If you resist, they will crush you. They will have the resources of a whole community to draw upon including weapons, vehicles, manpower, electronics, tear gas, etc. Every scrap of government owned equipment and weaponry will be used, by someone. Anyone who plans to hold out against that kind of threat is delusional. 5. The local polity that forms is almost certainly going to make mistakes. Some of them are lethal blunders. Odds are, the locals will probably not have given a lot of serious thought to facing long term survival. They will squander resources and delay implementing necessary actions (like planting more food or working together to defend a harvest). They may even decide to take in thousands of refugees from nearby cities, thereby almost insuring their own longer term starvation. A much better approach is to be an integral part of the community and use the combined resources of the community to defend all of your resources together. This would be much easier if a high percentage of the community were like minded folks who were committed to sharing and cooperating. Because any community with food is likely going to have to somehow survive while facing even larger polities, like nearby cities, counties or even state governments. Don't expect to face a walking hoard of lightly armed, starving individuals. Expect to face a professional, determined army formed by a government of some kind. A small farming community can probably support a few outsiders, but not very many. The community will need to politically deal with outside polities or they will face a war they can't win. Hiding the fact that you are self sufficient is going to be hard. You can't hide farm land. Defending your resources against the nearby city will be even harder. You may be able to save the community by buying protection with surplus food...if you have prepared for that. You may indeed have to fight, but stalling that event for even a year could mean the difference between living and being overwhelmed. In any case, your community needs to go into the crisis with a plan. You may be able to shape that plan if you become a community leader instead of a "resource". With Very Kind Regards, - R.J. JWR Replies: You've summed up some essential truths quite succinctly. Your points square nicely with the scenario in my first novel ("Patriots"). It also matches my premise of gemeinschaft kampfgeist, in the context of cohesion in the "we/they paradigm." « Letter Re: Experience with a Shallow Well Hand Pump |Main| Note from JWR: » Monday November 2 2009The Flash to Bang Count: Observations on the October Indonesian Asteroid AirburstA few days ago, The Telegraph reported:
Later reports mentioned and estimated 5 to 10 meter diameter for the asteroid. Let's consider the implications of this event. If this had happened in the skies over a First World nation, or if the explosion had taken places at ground level (or near ground level, a la the 1908 Tunguska event), then there would be a huge clamor and calls for early asteroid impact prediction, and greater preparedness. But since this took place above what most consider a backwater nation, and there was no visible damage on the ground to photograph, this news story was resigned to "minor headline" status. And what if the object had been 100 meters in diameter, instead of 20? We've previously discussed asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits--also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs)-- and the consequences of potential impacts in SurvivalBlog. Asteroid impacts are one of those "low likelihood but high disruption" events. The chances of one occurring in our lifetimes is relatively low, but if one were to happen, the implications would be huge. In anticipation of future asteroid impacts, here are some factors to consider:
I have been studying the threat of asteroid impacts for many years. NEOs represent a "wild card"scenario. Since a fairly complete orbital path tracking database probably won't exist for 20+ years, this threat will remain an imponderable for the foreseeable future. Until a fully-populated database is developed, this will remain a quasi-voodoo science. The Indonesian event illustrates just how easy it is to get blind-sided. And even after we have complete tracking data, it will be decades longer before we start to proactively develop a program to "nudge" the larger NEO asteroids into safer orbits. But again, keep in mind that this is one of those "low actuarial risk/high consequence" events. Plan accordingly. « Letter Re: Comments of Storing Coffee and Grinding Whole Wheat Flour |Main| Note from JWR: » Sunday November 1 2009Letter Re: Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare
I was thinking about the "I Am Your Worst Nightmare" post as I worked in my vegetable garden, preparing it for Spring. I wonder how long it would be until the Looters evolved their strategy Looter+1: Don't kill everyone, leave some alive to loot again later. Looter+2: Plan to scare, rather than kill, your victims, so that they can continue farming and provide for your needs later. Dead victims can't work. Looter+3: Claim a territory and collect "protection" money/goods from the people in your territory. Tell them that in return for only taking one-third of everything they produce, you will protect them from "looters" who will take it all and kill them in the bargain. Punish anyone who holds out. Looter+4: Call your loot taxes. You are now a government. Regards, - Bear JWR Replies: Your observation is astute. In many nations, there is not much difference between "the government" and the bandito "Señor Calvera." (You may remember the bandit leader in The
Magnificent Seven « Letter Re: University of California Disaster Preparedness Videos |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday October 30 2009Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare, by Jeff T.
I am the leader of a band of 8-to-12 looters. I have some basic military training. We move from place to place like locusts devouring everything in our path. My group is armed with light weapons and can develop and follow simple plans of attack. We take what we want by force of arms. We prefer none of our victims survive because that could cause problems for us in the future. It has been six months since the grid went down. You and the other five members of your party have settled into what may be a long grinding existence. The every day tasks of growing and gathering have now become routine. The news from the outside is extremely limited but you don’t really miss it much. Life is simple but physically demanding. Although things may seem stable you will need to keep your team focused and alert. This is your first and most important layer of defense. You should hold an immediate reaction drill once per week. Keep things simple. Practice a specific response to such threats as injury, fire, attack and evacuation. Despite the challenges you must maintain contact with those around you such as neighbors for vital clues that trouble is brewing. Regular monitoring the radio will be critical in providing an early warning of trouble. You may be able to safely interview refugees with risking your party. Keep in mind the information you get from them may not always be reliable. While you have been farming I have been learning the best tactics to employ to seize your property and your goods. I have been refining them since we hit the road right after the lights went out. I have conducted eight “hits” so far and have been successful seven times. Here are some of my “lessons learned”. Intelligence gathering and target selection is critical to my success. Targets include those who have large quantities of fuel, food and other valuable supplies. My posse is constantly questioning anyone and everyone we contact searching for this our next victim. Anyone who has ever had knowledge, even second hand, of your preparations is someone of interest to me. I may approach them directly or indirectly. If anyone knows something I will find out about it. Who seems well-fed? Who still has transportation? Who has lights? Who was prepared? Where are they exactly? Somebody talks, either in person or on the radio. They always do. We search for victims night and day. During the day we are listening for the sounds of machinery, cars, tractors, gunfire or generators. Day or night without a lot of wind those sounds can carry for miles. At night I look for any sort of light. Even a small flash indicates somebody with electricity and that means a rich target. I always have somebody listing to the scanner for any news, leads or insecure chatter. Operational Security (OPSEC) is an important concept for your entire group to understand and maintain. If somebody outside your circle doesn’t have a real need to know about your plans, preparations or procedures then they shouldn’t know period. Develop a cover story and live it like was a bulletproof vest. It is no less important to your protection and survival. During an event you need to blend in with the surrounding environment. Carefully observe noise (such as generators and other engines) and light discipline especially at night. If you need to test fire weapons do it in one sequence to avoid a prolonged noise signature. Once I find and target you reconnaissance of your retreat is my next step. Only a fool would try to rush in and try to overwhelm a group of “survivalists”. We had a bad experience with that during our second hit. Now we spend at least a day or two trying to size up a large opportunity and the best way to take it down. I will observe retreat activity from a nearby-concealed position. I will get an idea of your numbers, weapons, routines and so much more by careful surreptitious observation. If your group seems alert, I will try and trigger a false alarm with a dog or child to watch your reaction to a threat. That helps me know how you respond, where you are strong and how to attack. I may also obtain a topographical map of the area to identify likely avenues of approach and potential escapes routes you will try to use. I may coerce your neighbors into uncovering a weak spot or access point or other important intelligence. I also have a Bearcat handheld scanner. I will be listening for any insecure chatter from your radios. Regular patrols at irregular intervals focused on likely observation points and avenues of approach could keep me at bay. You could put down sand or other soft soil in key choke points as a way of “recording” if anyone has recently traveled through the land. Dogs, with their advanced sense of hearing and smell are able to detect and alert you to intruders well in advance of any human. Motion sensing IR video cameras as a part of a security plan could play a part in your layered defense as long as you have power. A 24 hour manned observation point equipped with high quality optical tools is a must. It should be fortified and if possible concealed. It should have a weapon capable of reaching to the edges of your vision. Seismic intrusion devices, night vision and thermal imaging are phenomenal force multiplying tools. They can give you critical intelligence and warning. You should use them if you have them. Understand they are not fool proof and I can often neutralize them if I know you have them. These tools and techniques provide you reaction time. Time to plan your response and time to execute that plan. Recognize that a “defender” is always at a disadvantage. By definition a defender will be reacting to my attack. Modern warfare has emphasized the ability of the attacker to operate faster than opponents can react. This can be explained by the OODA loop. Below are the four steps of the classic OODA loop. These are the steps a defender goes through when under attack. 1. Observing or noticing the attack. 2. Orient to the direction, method and type of attack. 3. Deciding what the appropriate response will be. 4. Acting on that decision. As an attacker I will try and operate at a pace faster than you as a defender can adjust to. I will change my direction, pace, timing and method to force you to continue to process through the OODA loop. This creates confusion and wastes your precious reaction time. As a defender you will need to disrupt or reset your attackers timing with a counter-attack. When you are successful you become the attacker. Your defensive plans should utilize and exploit this concept. Here are a few scenarios: 1. Snipe & Siege I will begin the attack when I can engage at least half of your party’s military age personnel in one coordinated effort. I will infiltrate my team into concealed positions around your retreat within 50 to 75 yards. I will target any identified leadership with the first volley. Two thirds of my people will be engaging personnel. The other group will target communications antennas, surveillance cameras and any visible lighting assets. I want your group unable to see, communicate or call for help. The members of my band will each fire two magazines in the initial exchange. Two thirds of my group will change to new concealed positions and wait. One third will fall back into an ambush of the most likely avenue of escape. We will stay concealed and wait until you come out to attend to your wounded and dead. We repeat the attack as necessary until any resistance is crushed. Ensure you adjust the landscape around your retreat so that I don’t have anyplace offering cover or concealment within 100 yards of your residence. You can create decorative masonry walls that can be used to offer cover for personnel close to your residence. Fighting positions can be built now and used as raised planting beds and then excavated for use in the future. These can be extended or reinforced after any significant event. These structures or other measures such as trenching must be sited carefully to avoid allowing them to be used effectively by an attacker if they are overrun. 2. Trojan Horse For one hit we used an old UPS truck. We forced a refugee to drive it to the retreat gate. We concealed half our group inside the truck. The truck was hardened on the inside with some sandbags around the edges. The other half of our group formed an ambush concealed inside the tree line along the driveway. We killed the driver to make it look good and had one person run away. Those preppers almost waited us out. After nearly three hours they all walked slowly down the driveway. They were bunched up in a group intent on checking out the truck and driver. It was like shooting fish in a barrel. They could have worked together as group to sweep the area 360 degrees around the truck and they would have surely found us. A dog would have also alerted the residents to our presence. They could have taken measures to eliminate the vegetation offering us concealment on the road near the gate. They could have used CS gas or something similar to “deny” any suspicious areas. Lastly they could have done a “reconnaissance by fire”. Shooting into likely hiding spots, including the truck, trying to evoke a response. They should have established an over watch position with the majority of their group. This over watch group would have provided visual security and an immediate response if there were an attack. They were not expecting any additional threats. They didn’t consider that there might be additional danger lurking nearby aside from the truck and they died. 3. Kidnap & Surrender A few weeks ago we surprised and captured a couple of women out tending a garden. It was totally by chance. We were traveling through a very rural area on our way to another town when somebody heard a tractor backfire. We immediately stopped and I sent a small team to recon the noise. They bumped into a small party tending a field at the edge of their retreat. They seized two women and immediately dragged them back to our vehicles. We began negotiations by sending a finger from each one back to the retreat under a white flag. The rest was easy. This didn’t need to happen. Better noise discipline would have kept us from discovering their retreat. Some simple boundary fencing or tangle foot could have delayed us. The women should have been armed and aware of such a threat. If they has established an over watch for the garden they could have engaged us before we took our hostages or at least alerted the others that there was a problem. They also could have had a quick reaction SOP developed prior to this incident. That Quick Reaction (QR) force could have followed the kidnappers back to our vehicles and set up an ambush of their own. Rural retreat security is a full time job. If you snooze you may lose everything. 4. Fire and Maneuver I don’t like this option but sometimes the prize is just too tempting. We typically infiltrate quietly at night to prearranged start points. We begin our attack just before dawn when your senses are dulled by a long night watch or from sleep. Based on our reconnaissance we divided your retreat into positions or zones that need specific attention. We prepare for battle by using an air rifle to target any lights or cameras. Our first priority is to engage any LP/OP site and destroy or degrade them as much as possible. I split my forces into two supporting groups. One group keeps the target position under constant fire. The other group also fires and maneuvers, closing on the target and destroying it with gunfire or improvised weapons. Many times these positions only have one occupant and the task is relatively easy. Often these positions are easy to spot and are too far from each other to provide any effective mutual support. We will work from one position to the next. In the darkness and confusion most of the defenders are disoriented and ineffective. They fall like dominos. We have also used motorcycles to negotiate obstacles and speed through cuts in the perimeter fence. Then throw Molotov Cocktails into any defensive position as they roar past. If you fall back into your residence we will set up a siege. If we can maneuver close enough, perhaps by using a distraction, we will pump concentrated insecticide into your building or we may introduce LP gas from a portable tank into the house and ignite it with tracer fire. If there was enough warning time from your OP you could execute a pre-planned response. Your planned response should be simple, easy to understand and execute. Half your group occupies your fighting positions, two to a position. The rest of your party establishes an over watch and concentrate its fire at the enemies trying to fix your positions. If you had more than enough prepared positions the enemy might not know where to attack. It would also provide more flexibility in your defense based on the direction of attack. I would use Night Vision if available or illumination from flares or lights as a last resort. Rats hate light. Usually people keep main access points blocked from high-speed approach. Likely avenues of approach should also be blocked or choked and kept under observation. Remember though what keeps me out keeps you in. Typically the common techniques of parking vehicles in roadways will only delay my approach not stop it altogether. An ordinary 12-gauge shotgun, shooting slugs, can stop most types of non-military vehicles at close range. Don’t forget the threat of fire or other non-traditional weapons in your defensive plans. You could create the illusion of a “dead end” for your main access road by positioning a burned out trailer home or a couple of burned out cars at the false “end” of the road. Concealing the fact that the road actually continues to your residence. Lastly, develop a plan to evacuate and evade capture. When faced with a significantly superior force it may be the only viable option. This should include simple, reliable communications or signals such as three blasts on a dog whistle. Your fighting positions and barriers need to be constructed to allow coordinated withdrawal in an emergency. You should establish a rally point and time limit to assemble. I believe this should be a priority in your practice drills. During a real emergency you may be able to rally, rearm and plan your own version of the “snipe and siege” to retake your retreat. Key messages: Your rural retreat defense can be visualized as a set of concentric rings:
Remember:
Don’t underestimate me. Reading for further study: The Defence of Duffer's Drift, by Major General Sir Ernest Dunlop Swinton (1905) US Army FM 5-15 Field Fortifications US Army FM 5-103 Survivability « Economics and Investing: |Main| Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare, by Jeff T. » Letter Re: University of California Disaster Preparedness Videos
Jim: While scanning through iTunes U, I found a television (or audio) series from University of California TV on disaster preparedness. They are professionally produced and contain a wealth of information about about emergency response systems are intended to work. Included here are four of the fifteen or so shows that they have put together. The ones I have included are Natural Disasters, Chemical and Biological Agents, Pandemic Influenza and Emerging Infections and Disaster Volunteerism They go over several case studies that happened in California, but talk about organizations generally enough that it is applicable to most areas with advanced emergency response systems. At the end, I have included links to more shows in UCTV disaster preparedness series. Here are some video links and excerpted brief summaries:
Regards, - Ben M. « Letter Re: Lamar Alexander's Solar Homesteading E-Book |Main| Note from JWR: » Thursday October 22 2009Lessons Learned from Hurricanes Ike, Rita, and Katrina, by TiredTubes
In September, 2008, Hurricane Ike--a Category 4 hurricane--pounded the Gulf Coast of the southern US. Some coastal communities like Crystal Beach no longer really exist. Inland, life was severely disrupted. For those of us on the South Coast hurricanes are a frequent reality. We were quite well prepared, but used the disruptions and dislocations as a test and opportunity to tune up our preparations. 1. Be ready to help others and to accept help We didn't need much during Ike, but the power went out before a neighbor finished boarding up his house. My 1 KW inverter, hooked up to his idling truck provide the juice for a Skilsaw and a few lights; allowing him to finish. Usually it is skills and not "stuff" that helps others and yourself. Besides strengthening a neighborly friendship, the number of damaged houses was probably reduced by one. Our own [permanently-installed] genset uses natural gas (a tri-fuel generator) which in the majority of cases is superior and much cheaper to operate. Over the 11 days that we didn't have power it consumed $100 worth of natural gas. I estimate that an equivalent amount of gasoline would have cost more than $300. I stopped it every 75 hours for oil and filter. If your genset doesn't have an hour meter, then add one. There are some inexpensive self contained hour meters made for lawn equipment that work very well and require no hard wiring. It's really the only practical way to keep track of operating time, without which, intelligent maintenance is impossible. I noticed that many generators, some still in the box, on Craigslist following Hurricane Ike at bargain basement prices. I recommended to a friend he latch onto one of these and purchase a dual-fuel gasoline/natural gas carburetor] kit. Ants can profit from short-sighted grasshoppers. Develop a pre-event SOP: When we hear of a hurricane in the Gulf, we pick up loose items like branches that can be thrown by high winds and cause damage (aviators call this rubbish FOD), trim trees, check prescriptions, recharge everything rechargeable, treat the swimming pool with "shock" chlorine, get all the laundry and dishes done, get all the trash out for pickup, take “before” pictures, etc., etc., etc. 3. Have backups for your backups. The portable generator above was our backup to the natural gas-fueled genset. Then an inverter and ups. After that is a 100 Watt solar array I've been tinkering with to provide power for security lighting,etc. One important word on generators: Treat yours like it is the last one you'll ever get. Try and get a good one, I prefer either a Honda or Briggs Vangard engine. My Vangard portable is approx 10 years old and absolutely dependable. The difference is methodical maintenance. Keep the manuals, and read 'em ! Keep the oil changed, keep a fresh spark plug, keep spare [oil, air, and fuel] filters. Most importantly run it under load once a month. Unless it's new, pull off the cowling and clean all the dirt and dust from fins on the cylinder jug. Closely examine the starter rope, the fuel lines, et cetera. Replace 'em if they ain't perfect. Don't store gasoline in the machine other than enough for one periodic test run. Develop a ritual on test runs: such as every other payday, or the last Saturday in the month, to reduce it to a ritual. I run mine monthly whilst cutting the back yard lawn. (The mower makes more noise.) If you use gas cans; stick with metal, preferably safety cans. Plastics are slightly permeable and it will go bad much faster in a plastic can. On that note, [in humid climates] don’t keep spare spark plugs with the machine. This is because in outdoor storage the insulators can absorb moisture [and the metal parts can corrode]. Keep them inside or in a sealed can with some silica gel. An old one-quart paint can is ideal. 4. Double your plans for helping other people. Several relatives from coastal areas evacuated to our house (approximately 50 miles inland). I keep a 55 gallon drum of stabilized gasoline to fill up their cars to get them home. This was a lesson learned after the Rita evacuation cluster. How much food you will go through will surprise you. It finally dawned upon us that we almost always eat dinner (lunch to you Northerners) and sometimes breakfast away from home. So what we consumed whilst hunkered down seemed out of proportion. 5. Keep a dial up phone line around, after 24 hours the cell phone tower generators started running out of propane, the cable modem (and the cable) went down with the power. Remember how to make that dial-up modem work. If you have cable television, then keep a traditional antenna handy. If you live near a major market the local AM news station, then it is probably a good bet. Have a good UPS, plug the computer and the desk lamp into it. If you have a cordless phone, plug it into the UPS too. The UPS will take the "bumps" out of the generator's power; your computer will thank you. Make sure you test the UPS periodically by plugging in a 100 Watt lamp and pulling the plug on the UPS. I find I need to replace that UPS battery about every 2-to-3 years. 6. Plan for the guests. Have plenty of soap, have a small flashlight (preferably with rechargeable batteries) for each guest. Have things other than television to keep youngsters occupied. Try and get plenty of rest. You'll probably be plenty busy after you can poke your head out again. In this vein don't forget dishwashing supplies, laundry supplies, baby supplies, etc. If it's a predictable event such as a hurricane, have all the dishes and laundry done. before it hits. Keep fire extinguishers near the gas generator, in the kitchen, and near the camp stove. 9. Be ready to make temporary repairs.. The missing shingles, damaged windows, etc. Have some plywood, a few 2x4s, some Visqueen polyethylene sheeting, batting boards, duct tape, a tarp, some nails, and so forth around. If you happen to have a good cordless drill, then you'll find sheet rock and deck screws are very superior to nails. If you're squared away then you already have this stuff , but a neighbor might be in need, so buy extra. 10. If I had my choice of just one utility it would be running water. Fortunately where we reside is served by a well run rural utility district which has prepared well for hurricanes. Failing this, in addition to stored water I have a portable gas utility pump (Robin brand) that can pressurize our water system from our pool and has sufficient capacity for a fire line. The pool got a good jolt of shock a day before the storm hit. 11.Keep some cash money handy. For a few days [with no utility power] there were no functional ATMs, and no way to use credit or debit cards. 12. Keep a low profile. About a week after Ike a passerby indignantly asked "How'd you get your lights turned on?" This showed his ignorance on several levels. He seemed to think someone just had to flip a switch downtown and "shazam!" his lights are on. I couldn't make him understand there has to be an unbroken physical link between a power plant and consumer, this seemed to aggravate his obvious helplessness. Telling him that we had been making our own juice seemed to irritate him. I wonder who he voted for? People with this mindset (that the world owes them something) could be a genuine liability in a real catastrophe. (BTW on a news show during a piece about energy, I actually heard a lady refer to natural gas as “just another dirty fossil fuel”) and not be challenged on the facts. Little minds scare me. I think that the hyper-liberals would love to use the heavy hand of government to force the ants take care of the grasshoppers. Keep a low profile. The best advice I ever heard on the subject (I believe it was Howard J. Ruff 13. Keep a notebook, keep a record of what happened, but especially keep a record of preps you overlooked or screwed up, or stuff you ran out of, or skills that need to be added or honed. That's where most of the preceding information came from! Also keep tabs on what's scarce after an event. Gas was scarce, but diesel plentiful after Rita. In contrast, after Ike there was plenty of fuel, but few operating stations due to lack of power. (There was a "mandatory evacuation" during Rita which turned out to be a fatal traffic jam for a few poor souls which quickly emptied the filling station tanks.) Out our way the local Wal-Mart made a heroic effort and opened up on locally-generated power, two days after Ike. The sheriff’s department was there to “maintain order”. (Let’s just say that they actually wear brown shirts here.). This event was a lifetime opportunity to study the varied behaviors of people under stress. « Two Letters Re: Preparations for Eyesight & Hearing |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Monday October 19 2009Twenty-Two Reasons Why this Recession is Different and Why it Will EndureI
find it surprising that I'm now getting inquiries from readers, asking if "we've reached bottom" in the current economic recession, and asking if the time has come to start buying stocks or residential real estate. It seems that the talking heads of mainstream media are using some sort of voodoo. How can anyone think that we've hit bottom, and an economic recovery is in progress? To dispel the myths from the CNBC Cheering Section, please consider the following. (And note that I've provided references for each assertion, just so you know that I'm not talking out of my
Back in the Fall of 2008, I started hearing from consulting clients with notes of fear in their voices. They realized that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they could not properly isolate and articulate the problem. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that they sensed is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate. America will continue in recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But the recession that began in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone. The Federal governments's debt, just by itself is cause for concern. As an old gunsmithing friend mine, the late Chuck Brumley, was fond of saying: “If your outgo exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall." Several decades of profligate spending by the US Congress are finally starting to take their toll. Just because their friend Helicopter Ben has a high-speed printing press does mean that they can continue to spend money like drunken sailors in definitely. (On second thought, I should apologize for impugning the reputation of drunken sailors. They are actually much more conservative with their funds than congressmen.) Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures. Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.) The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse. "Big Picture" Implications As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend long, and effectively use debt compounded upon debt. Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDSes). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so most derivatives contract holders are only just now experiencing their first major recession. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not yet experienced a full scale "blow up" of derivatives, but I predict that if and when it happens, it will be spectacular. The pinch in CDSes (a form of derivative contract) in 2008 was just a faint foreshadowing of what we'd experience in a a full-blown derivatives collapse. The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on the street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse in the summer of 2008, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama. The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even governments will go under as this tumult plays out. (Take note of the recent vote of no confidence in Latvia.) The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late 1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will inevitably result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.) Mitigating the Risks Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends and /or relatives that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.) Since additional large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business. In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life. « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Two Letters Re: Preparations for Eyesight & Hearing » Letter Re: Gear that is Hidden in Plain Sight
James, « Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Perspectives on Roughing It and Covert Car Camping » Saturday October 17 2009Two Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor
Dear Editor: Dear Jim and Family, « From Michael Z. Williamson: M4 Carbine Failures in Afghanistan Likely Due to High Rate of Fire |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday October 16 2009Getting Prepared for EMP or a Solar Storm, by David in IsraelElectromagnetic Pulse (EMP) of the regional effect scale is a threat during times of potential crisis with a megaton class nuclear equipped foe who also has near-space launch capability for these weapons. An EMP-like event of greater strength and duration is also possible during extreme solar flare events. These types of event are caused by ionospheric excitation of the upper atmosphere by subatomic particles and plasma ejected from a massive solar discharge, this motion in the conductive plasma generates massive amounts of radio waves. An antenna is any conductor of electricity which inductively converts radio waves into voltage, usually grabbing signals in the microvolt range, but--like a tuned guitar string vibrates in harmony when another tuned guitar string is plucked--an antenna best resonates to a frequency resonant with its length. I would ask the readers to quickly brush up on antenna theory with one of the many excellent tutorials on the Internet. Fortunately for off the grid equipment like portable electronics and vehicles an antenna that best receives these high energy HF radio waves is measured in tens of meters, unfortunately that makes things like electrical power lines and long antennas particularly well suited to absorbing and transmitting large induced voltages into your sensitive solid state electronics. It is important to remember, if you are concerned about EMP follow the old instructions for during a thunderstorm, disconnect all antennas and unplug your electronics. At a minimum filter your mains power and install gas discharge tubes on antenna feeds for mission critical radios. Why do the tube tech gadgets survive where solid state dies from HERF? When an errant voltage spike enters a vacuum tube it can just discharge itself to ground if strong enough (so ground everything electronic at every opportunity), the other large components can also mostly take a sudden flash of high voltage without being destroyed. In solid state the junction size is almost universally quite small and if a reversed voltage is applied against the bias of the semiconductor or an over-voltage is applied the gate is almost always ruined in a way that requires component replacement. While tube tech is much more survivable in an EMP environment, and HF (shortwave) radios are at high risk being tuned to the most affected bands, I wish to remind the readers that in nearly all other categories tube tech is far less survivable and is notoriously wasteful of precious off-grid electricity. The several downsides to "hollow state" tech is mechanical fragility and short life span compared to solid state, we are talking about blown glass and incandescent filaments essentially like a box of light bulbs to the uninitiated. In a well stocked retreat a tube type radio could be an asset after serious preps have been completed, although for the price of a quality collectors item several high quality military grade (civilian ham radio) solid state radios, the tools and parts to repair them, and proper antenna line and power input traps for errant voltage could be purchased providing much better reliable communications to your retreat than tube tech could. I actually like to play with hollow state components especially when whipping up simple DIY radios and electronics with the kids, it is a much better visual learning tool which can be used to explain how the solid state components work. I highly recommend that any serious survivalist invest in several good butane soldering irons, quality fluxed lead alloy solder, and a good tackle box full of replacement components, these can either be harvested from junked electronics or purchased in large grab bags form most large electronics engineering supply outlets. The Brunton Fuel Tool [lighter filling adaptor] makes keeping butane in a usable form easier for a prepper by avoiding the mostly incompatible gas cigarette lighter refill cans and instead using lantern/stove cartridges. These, combined with quality test equipment means that most damaged, shot, soaked, or even EMP-damaged electronics could be saved if you have the time to spare testing out components. If the readers fail to procure the required hollow state and solid state components and practice their electronics repair skills by kitting or repairing intentionally damaged electronics they will not be able to use these skills during a crisis where mission critical equipment might be taken offline. You must intelligently train, equip yourself for, and practice your medical, electronics, on and off-road driving, long range bicycling, cooking, fieldcraft, armed and unarmed combat, loaded hiking, carpentry, navigation, boating, food preservation, butchering, cycling, farming, veterinary, water finding, cooking, hunting, fishing, leadership, metal smithing, mechanical repair and fabrication, engineering and other critical survival skills. Being a real survivor has nothing to do with hobby shooting, wide-eyed fanatics, or overweight dude commandos, it is about living your life with the calm confidence that you are walking in the path that the Lord has set out for you while taking reasonable precautions to protect the life you have been given as well as being a vital asset to your family and community. - David in Israel « Economics and Investing: |Main| From Michael Z. Williamson: M4 Carbine Failures in Afghanistan Likely Due to High Rate of Fire » Three Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor
James Wesley, The more important point of dollar-denominated oil contracts is dollar prestige. Documents from the Federal Reserve show that Arthur Burns not only was interfering with the gold markets three decades ago, but the level of cloak-and-dagger efforts to keep the dollar as the world's reserve currency for political power. Dollar-denominated oil contracts purposes are to preserve hegemony, not prop up foreign central banks' currency reserve. Godspeed, - Brian in Wisconsin Sir: Jim « Letter Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor |Main| Note from JWR: » Wednesday October 14 2009Water, Water Everywhere?, by David in Israel
James, It is imperative that anyone planning a retreat have redundant water supply plans including water table maps and locations of springs and open bodies of water. Planning must include which water tables are affected by drought. The best sources of water are existing deep wells or open un-dammed bodies of water, plans must include how to pump or transport the water to your retreat. Since water is probably the most important strategic asset to a retreat there must be plans to protect and access remote water sources especially in the face of bandits who might attempt to monopolize this asset. Pre-crisis would also be a good time to secure and possibly purchase a clear legal share or long term lease to water rights on nearby properties. - David in Israel « Experience With Bicycle Commuting and Touring, Hammocks, and Stoves, by David in Israel |Main| Notes from JWR: » Monday October 12 2009What Recovery? Find Yourself a Recoveryless JobFor more than a month, the mainstream media has been yammering about an economic recovery. Chasing phantom "good number" statistics amidst an onslaught of otherwise bad economic and global credit market news, the Wall Street cheering section is desperately seeking some news that the current recession is coming to an end. They talk about "the recovery in progress"--almost a fait accompli. They have been so good at this that they have fooled some investors into putting their sidelined money back into the stock market. What a masterpiece of disingenuous grandstanding. But the sad truth is that there is no genuine recovery in progress. Perhaps there will be a minor economic boost, generated by the huge bailout spending, but the bottom line is that we are in the midst of a major recession. And unlike the recessions in the past 50 years, this one is not based on just market cycles, but rather caused by a systemic failure of the global credit market. So any attempts to re-inflate the bubble with new credit (based on artificially low interest rates and bailout "programs") are bound to be unsuccessful. This recession cum depression won't end until malinvestment is driven out of the system, and trust in a fully transparent system of credit that backs genuine, truly marked-to-market tangible assets is restored. America's debt bubble that emerged from over-inflated real estate is at the root of the current mess, just as it was in Japan in the 1980s. (In their case, it was commercial real estate, in parts of Tokyo.) The Japanese government has tried similar measures (mostly in the form of massive public works programs and artificially low interest rates) for 25 years, and they still haven't pulled out of their economic doldrums! But consider that our real estate bubble was much, much bigger, and that unlike Japan, we are a net-debtor nation. (Japan has traditionally been a fiscally-conservative nation of savers.) So how can we expect to do any better at "recovery" than they did? The Obama administration has two potential courses of action that it can implement--through Treasury Department action, in concert with the Federal Reserve banking cartel's open market committee--to attempt to emerge from the current mess. Neither of these are appetizing:
My suspicion is that the BHO administration will opt for the "weak dollar" route, since that will be the least painful of the two options. The sad news, however, is that ultimately neither option will solve the underlying problem, and hence the US economy is doomed to a deep 10+ year depression. During this period we will witness (and endure) massive unemployment, high crime, dislocation, rioting, repatriation restrictions, and substantially higher taxes. With these in mind, take the steps necessary to protect your family's safety, and your assets. The talking heads on the finance and investing shows would have you believe that an economic recovery, or at least a "jobless recovery", is just around the corner. Do not be deceived. If any of you reading this are still under the deceptive spell of the CNBC rah-rahs and believe that recovery could be underway, then just take a look at this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets, which I've previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog. As you can see, the oft-cited peak in subprime mortgage interest rate resets is now behind us, but the peaks in Alt-A, and Option Adjustable (aka "Option ARM") rate resets are still ahead of us. Thus, in actuality, the worst is not yet over. We are just in a lull between two tsunami waves. With the exception of a few newcomers, SurvivalBlog readers are already well-informed on the foregoing facts, so I won't belabor these points. Instead, I'll move on to some practical issues that will have some benefit to you. Lets talk about jobs, and to be more specific, your job. Even if you are currently employed somewhere in a "safe and secure" job, keep in mind that there are no absolutes. You could have a small town civil service jo, for example at a water treatment plant. But what if the city or county that you work for goes bankrupt? You could be laid off in a heartbeat. The phrase "under new management" often means firing you, and hiring the nephew or old pal of the new boss. The fictional character Sarah Conner said it best: "No one is ever safe." So hedge your bets. I recommend that you develop a second stream of income through self-employment. Typically this can be found in a moonlighting service job, or a home-based mail order business. I've often encouraged even my rural consulting clients to develop a second income stream. Why is this important? "Living off the land"-style self sufficiently is an admirable and commendable goal. But even if you are living truly "debt free", you will still have property taxes to pay. That means that you will need a recession/depression proof revenue stream in the event that you lose your primary job. One market segment that prospered in the Great Depression of the 1930s was repair businesses. Obviously, in hard economic times, people try to make do with what they have. So repair businesses are a natural. If it is some small appliance that you could repair that could be mailed from and back to the customer, so much the better. (That way you could have a nationwide business, rather than just a local one.) This might include: DVD player repair, laptop computer repair, and so forth. Its a Dirty Job, But Someone Has to Do It Some suggested employment possibilities: 1.) Mining and manufacturing processes that because of shipping expenses cannot be practicably be moved offshore. Coal mining is a good example. 2.) Service industry jobs that are essential and non-discretionary. Let me reduce this to a few key examples, so that you'll know what to avoid:
3.) Retail sales (face to face, or mail order) of crucial items. 4.) Retail sales (face to face, or mail order) of comfort items. In the midst of an economic depression, people will crave escape. Movie DVDs are a good example. 5.) Military service. Most people don't think of the armed forces as service industries, but that is essentially what they are, on a national scale. In the military you are sort of a security guard for the real Mall of America. Or think of it as a lead delivery service. My father was an Air Force instructor pilot, back in the days of T-33s. He summed up his service when he told me: "I was a glorified bus driver, burning up lots of Uncle Sam's jet fuel. I did a great job of defending miles and miles of cactus." Thirty years later, I served as an Army Intelligence officer. It was great fun at the time, but in essence, I was just a detective--or more precisely the manager of detectives--that worked for one of the world's biggest detective agencies. 6.) Repair work. Be Flexible and Proactive The coming years will be difficult ones, globally. If you are risk of a layoff, then hedge your bets by developing a second stream of income, now. And if you are laid off, do not hesitate. Do whatever it takes to find steady work, even if means moving, or taking a lower-paying job. Don't just wallow in self-pity and draw unemployment insurance. be proactive and do something! « Economics and Investing: |Main| Where to Store Food When There is No Simple Answer, by Margy » Saturday October 10 2009Letter Re: Documentary Examines a Terrorist Nuke ScenarioHello Jim, It is a very detailed look at what they describe as our government's top terrorist concern - a 10 kiloton nuke being detonated at/near the Capitol Mall in Washington DC. [JWR Adds: A re-run of this show is scheduled for October 16th at 8 A.M. and 2 P.M.. Tape or Tivo it!] One of the things that became very clear for me is that, should this event occur in DC or any of the handful of other 'primary target' cities mentioned, our entire country will immediately go into a lockdown that will make the 9/11 aftermath look like a timeout for a five year old. This lock down will mean the immediate grounding of all air traffic, as we saw on 9/11, but also the immediate suspension of all trucking, freight, and port activity. The government will be searching for additional nukes, and to determine how the weapon entered the country. While not stated in the Documentary, there will be no just-in-time deliveries for what could be weeks, and I assume that rationing will be the method of disbursement for a time after that. There is an implied expectation that Marshall Law will be instituted at a national level as well. If your not ready, this is yet another reason to get ready. Long term larder, and keeping out of the way will make for a much less stressful life than those who stand there like deer in the headlights. Thank you Jim for all that you do, our prayers are with you and your family. God Bless, - D. McD. « Two Letters Re: Applying For a Non-Resident Concealed Carry Weapons Permit/License |Main| Notes from JWR: » Sunday October 4 2009Travel Security, by CapnRick in Argentina (Part 2 of 2)
What Survival type Are You? [I concur with the Glenn Beck and the Survivor's Club that] there are distinct personality types of survivors. These are as follows:
It is important that each reader think about and analyze their feelings about each of these approaches to survival, come up with their own definitions of what each type is like, decide which type each reader is, and start thinking about “what if...?” scenarios for their particular circumstances. If you think the unthinkable and devise plans to survive, then when the unthinkable occurs, you will make the correct choices automatically. This is important, because people have failed to survive because they refused to think about the unthinkable, and their brains froze, they acted thoughtlessly, or they reacted without thinking clearly through all the possible ramifications of their actions. Sounds like crisis government, no? A Word About Martial Arts: Anyone with knife scars and bullet wound scars is not proud of their scars. They know that each scar is a visible reminder of a personal failure to avoid a life-threatening event. I acquired the knife scars on my arms as a dumb teenager living on the Texas border and getting caught in avoidable confrontations while being in places where I shouldn't have been, both in Texas and Mexico. As I got a bit smarter and more aware of my sometimes dangerous surroundings, I started getting knife scars on my legs... having learned that distance is the best defense with an over-medicated knife fighter. When I finally wised up and started avoiding bad places, I got fewer and fewer scars. I have had no formal martial arts training except the small amount standard in armed forces boot camp. Those of you who are interested in martial arts, please be certain that you make a serious commitment to always stay in peak physical condition. If you cannot fight at full force for at least two minutes, then no amount of skills training is sufficient. It has been my experience that none but those dedicated to their physical conditioning can maintain an aggressive fight for two minutes. If you are proud of your elite status as King of the Dojo, check out the free video series on real-life street defense at AttackProof. Terrorist Attack Concerns Phase 1: Broad Target Selection. During broad target selection, terrorists collect information on numerous targets to evaluate their potential in terms of symbolic value, casualties, infrastructure criticality, or public attention. Timothy McVeigh wanted to attack a symbol of the federal government, preferably the FBI, Drug Enforcement Administration, or Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. He identified possible targets such as individual federal employees, their families, and facilities in at least five states. Phase 3: Specific Target Selection. Specific targets are then identified for attack based on anticipated effects, publicity, consistency with overall objectives, and costs versus benefits of the attack. After preparing the bomb for detonation, McVeigh walked away from the scene on a preselected route. To flee Oklahoma City, McVeigh used a get-away car pre-positioned before the attack. McVeigh wanted the world to know that he attacked the Federal Murrah Building because he believed the Federal Government infringed on individual rights of Americans. McVeigh left a file on his sister's computer titled "ATF Read" echoing these sentiments. His get-away car contained anti-government literature and he subsequently made statements concerning his motivations for the attack. Geographical Regions of Interest Do you think that you are safe , traveling in the U.S. or in western Europe? Consider this: Within the United States, several organizations and individuals used Terror/criminal tactics to achieve their goals. Other organizations provide direct and indirect assistance through fund-raising, recruiting, and training support. Terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists against US interests and personnel began in 1978 with the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran. In my personal opinion, the US has been at war since that date. Foreign Terror attacks in the US began in 1968 with the hijacking of Pan Am flight 501 to Cuba, and in 1993 with the first attack against the World Trade Center in New York. More recently, the foiled Terror/criminal plot against Fort Dix, New Jersey demonstrates that Al-Qaeda cells still exist within the nation's borders. Home-grown terrorism is a reality. During the 1960s and 1970s, the Weathermen and the Armed Forces for Puerto Rican National Liberation executed several small-scale terror/criminal attacks. More recently, violent elements include the anti-abortion Army of God, the eco-terrorist Earth Liberation Front, and other domestic anarchist groups and individuals. Homegrown terrorists have employed various tactics such as rudimentary letter bombs, improvised explosive devices, small arms attacks, and truck bombs. Bioterrorism is also a concern in view of the anonymous anthrax attacks in 2001. For more information on events in North America, see historical examples on the Oklahoma City bombing, United Flight 93, and the plot to attack Fort Dix. There are serious threats now from MS13 and other Latino gangs, who work with Russian/Italian/Asian mobs, and other gangs. Also, note that the Mexican Cartels have turned the US border area into a war zone, per recent news items. It is reported that Phoenix, Arizona is now the kidnapping capitol of the US. Islamic extremists pose the primary Terror/criminal threat to US military and government personnel. Since the mid-1990s, terrorists have enhanced their capabilities around the world... including Indonesia and the Pan-Pacific area, Venezuela, the tri-border area of Paraguay/Brazil/Bolivia and expanded their influence and presence into other parts of the world. In the areas of current US military operations, roadside IEDs pose one of the greatest threats to US forces. Additionally, local political leaders and civilians, infrastructure, and international aid personnel are terrorized by suicide bombings, kidnappings, and murders. In many other parts of the Western Asian and African regions, suicide bombers and gunmen target hotels and tourist attractions to advance domestic political agendas. Numerous Terror/criminal organizations operate in almost every region of the world. In addition to Al-Qaeda, other organizations include Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ansar al-Islam, and Mujahedine-e Khaiq, the Russian Mafia, etc. For more information on events in this region, check the Internet for historical examples on the USS Cole, the Luxor Massacre at Deir el-Bahri, and Khobar Towers. European Union In recent years, US allies in Europe have suffered dramatic Terror attacks. Terrorists have targeted civilians with IEDs and suicide bombers for maximum impact on government policies and elections. US military forces have also come under direct attack by organizations wishing to diminish America's influence in the area. Additionally, organizations sympathetic to Terrorist/religious radical objectives actively raise funds, recruit, and provide other support to religious extremist groups. As seen in the events of 9/11, western Europe can be a staging area for attacks against the United States. For more information, see the historical case studies for the London and Madrid subway bombings, the bombing of the La Belle Discotheque, and other attacks. Africa The 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania illustrate the willingness of terrorists to use indiscriminate violence to attack foreign interests in Africa. Additionally, local ethnic and nationalist-based conflicts increasingly threaten foreign corporate infrastructure and personnel. Terrorist organizations also engage in support activities within the African continent. These include fund raising, training, recruiting, operation of front activities, and involvement in criminal enterprises. Africa has the potential to be a significant transit point and support base for Terror/criminal operations in other parts of the world. For more information, see Internet sources on the African embassy bombings. Pacific Rim/Southeast Asia Terrorist attacks in this region demonstrate a broad spectrum of tactics. These include kidnappings, suicide bombings, and even chemical attacks. Aleph, formerly known as Aum Shinrikyo, attacked Tokyo subways with Sarin nerve gas and cyanide in 1995. Abu Sayyaf, a Philippine group seeking to create a radical Muslim state, targets foreigners for kidnapping. Terrorists have targeted foreign assets in the region. In 2001, Singaporean officials foiled a plot to attack US military forces and western diplomatic missions. The group, Jamaah Islamiya, seeks to create a radical Muslim state across South East Asia. In 2002 it conducted a suicide bombing of a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia to kill western tourists. For more information on events in this region, seek Internet sources on the Bali Nightclub Bombing and Tokyo Subway Attack. Latin America Unlike the 1980s, recent attacks against US interests are focused primarily on businesses and not US military or government assets. In addition to bombings and arson, Terror/criminal tactics include targeted assassinations and kidnapping, especially against foreign-owned commercial assets. Some of the most prominent Terror/criminal organizations within the Latin American region include the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Colombian National Liberation Army (ELN), and the Shining Path ["Sendero Luminoso"] in Peru. Various Internet sources are available. A few words about the Mumbai attacks: The FBI reports are trickling back from the agents dispatched there to cooperate with Indian authorities, and the results are depressing. It appears more and more certain that various Pakistani high-level authorities were aware of the activities of the attackers and their support team in Pakistan. An incident of this sort could easily be the start of a war between these two nuclear powers. But, take a moment to think of the businessmen and their families that were at their hotel having a nice dinner and deep into their cozy world, when the unthinkable happened. I hope each and every reader of this report will resolve to include a special Survival bag in their luggage to include packaged ready-to-eat food. I use Wal-Mart granola bars, peanut butter and crackers, and so forth. MREs, if space is available. You should also have lots of spare batteries, a flashlight, et cetera. I use a head-band light, a bottle for water, a fire-starter kit (cotton balls soaked in vaseline with a spark striker and a Bic disposable lighter). In closing: the most important thing is to maintain a positive and happy attitude while preparing for the unthinkable. « Economics and Investing: |Main| Note from JWR: » Saturday October 3 2009Travel Security, by CapnRick in Argentina (Part 1 of 2)The following recommendations are a result of my travel throughout the world on business for 20+ years. These observations are offered as a helpful supplement to other sources on the web dealing with personal security issues while traveling. My apologies to those who do not find these observations pertinent to their particular situation. Allow me to say that these suggestions are offered freely and without restriction so they may be passed around with no obligation. Very little of this information is original to me, and I apologize if anyone has written anything similar. Also, I am not a security professional and make no claims of expertise. This stuff works for me, but each reader's mileage may vary. Some of my ideas might actually get people in trouble with the authorities and/or cause physical harm. Please read this with an open mind and a critical eye. Comments are appreciated at travel@ricdav.com. Lots of US Embassy staff, host country Federal Police and Army staff gave me input, horror stories and advice regarding personal safety issues while I was visiting and working in overseas markets. These were Latin America, but including trips to Western European and Pacific Rim countries. I also have input from international and US expatriates living and working there. I know that many people have a lot of experience in many different countries, and may honestly laugh at all these ideas and issues presented here as stupid and alarmist. How you take it is your business. It is submitted in serious concern for the safety of all international travelers. It was necessary for me to learn this stuff because I have lived and worked outside the US most of my life. I first traveled internationally in the 1960s and retired in 2005 to live in Argentina. I hope you can understand that the world in post 9-11 has really changed. Radicals of the right, the left and the lunatic religious extreme and NarcoTerrorists all celebrated when the twin towers went down. You should also be aware that even pre 9-11, international travel was seriously more dangerous than it was in the 1960s. Now, bad guys all over the world have become more encouraged by their perception that bad guys can get away with bad stuff... hence, have become more aggressive. This article contains various types of info, including some info that may not be of interest to all travelers. I hope you will find some of the following items of interest including...
Try to familiarize yourself with the area you plan to visit. There are various aggregators of news that allow one to program their search “bots” to look for keywords involving your area of interest. I use Yahoo News, Dogpile News Search element and some others. I also look for the local news sources for the area in question on the web. Here are some questions you should consider when seeking information about your geographical area of interest.
Groups and individuals have demonstrated their willingness to employ terrorist/criminal tactics to further their agendas. While some threats have a regional focus, others have become international and affect multiple areas. Foreign visitors, military and diplomatic staff are seriously targeted in virtually every region of the world. ALWAYS PLAY THE “WHAT IF... ?” SCENARIO GAME Consider ways you might become a victim of a criminal/NarcoTerrorist attack. Several factors to keep in mind include:
If you see something unusual, report it immediately to security officials for further investigation. Make a note of the individual's description and activities, the time of day, and equipment being used. TRAVEL TIPS Terrorist/criminal attacks at the Spanish/English/Japanese rail systems, Mexican border towns, Bali, Indonesia, Luxor, Egypt, London, England, and other tourist locations signal an increased threat to foreign travelers. While visiting a new location, it is natural to tour local sites of interest. While sightseeing, you should keep good anti-crime/antiterrorism practices in mind. Plan Ahead
If sightseeing with others, pre-designate a location to meet at if separated during an emergency. Make sure someone knows your itinerary (acquaintances, business contacts, hotel staff?) and what time you may be returning. Blend in to Your Surroundings Conceal your national/business/religious affiliation and try to blend in with other people on the street. USA red white and blue t-shirts, soccer/baseball logo clothing and religious jewelry are overly conspicuous in many instances. Observe and conform to local culture. Activities such as public displays of affection, drinking alcohol, or wearing shorts or skirts may be inappropriate. Do not bring undue attention to yourself. Avoid loud or boisterous behavior. Walking the streets at night in an inebriated state in very dangerous in many locations.
If you happen to be one of the poor guys shivering naked on the side of the road with 20-30 others watching the NarcoTraficantes molest the women passengers, understand that you will spend the next several years of your life eating beans in the jungle. Poor folks get to go home, except for the young and pretty girls and teenage boys they want to draft for paramilitary service for the NarcoTraficantes . The NarcoTraficantes are studying in the same Islamic extremist terror schools as Al Qaeda, and Colombian/Mexican NarcoTraficantes' IEDs are really starting to show up a lot more... in recent cases, bait and blast techniques were used in the south of Mexico to kill lots of soldiers and Federal Police. Cruise Ship Security Cruise ships are like a small city where passengers are encouraged to forget their troubles and relax once onboard ship. It is natural for passengers on vacation to let their guard down, especially when out to sea in a resort-like setting. Try to not let a false sense of security aboard a cruise ruin your vacation by becoming a crime victim. Before you ship out, consider taking some of these preventative steps: After you enter your cabin, and while the door is still open, always check inside the bathroom or closest before sitting down inside. Don’t assume that your cabin is as secure as a hotel. Many people have keys to your cabin and your cabin door may be left standing open for hours while the cleaning crews or cabin steward services the room. Cabin doors locks are sometimes horribly outdated and are not re-keyed as frequently as hotel rooms. Obviously, don’t leave valuable items lying around. It is a good idea to have inventoried your luggage and photographed expensive items at home, and even emailed the info to your web email account for easy retrieval anywhere before you packed them at home in case of loss. Since most ship passengers are set up on a charge account system, be sure to use the ship safe deposit box for storage of valuable items, papers, credit cards or extra cash. Use all locks on the cabin door including the night latch. Consider carrying a hardware store door stop in your luggage and deploying it for extra security of the closed door while in the cabin. Some are available with alarms from web suppliers. Don’t open your cabin door to strangers. Whatever the person wants can be expressed from the other side of the closed and locked door. Be sure to teach children about this important procedure. Just like in a hotel, protect your cabin key and cabin number. Dishonest crew or passengers will look for the opportunity to snatch a loose key or one that is left unattended. When in port, be sure to leave your key with the registration desk before disembarking. You also need to keep your guard up with intoxicated passengers. Food and liquor consumption peaks on board ships and cause bring out the worst in some people not used to it. Just because passengers are dressed up, doesn’t mean they will act appropriately or not be overly aggressive. It is not unheard of for a ship passenger to slip a drug into your drink and take advantage of you just like on shore. There are pickpockets, purse thieves, and cabin burglars on board waiting for you to let your guard down or become careless. There are also scam artists who seek and prey on rich vacationers if given the chance. Be aware that if you or your family member gets into trouble on board a ship or in a port, you may be held accountable to the laws of a foreign country. The thing to do is to stay alert, be cautious, and stay safe while at sea. For details on the safety record of your cruise ship or how your ship will handle problems such are lost luggage or crime acts, contact the cruise line directly and ask for written disclosure of their policies and regulations. You can also contact the Cruise Lines International Association in New York City who represents the twenty five largest cruise lines for more information. Door Security Hardware Hotel or motel rooms should be equipped with a solid-core wood or metal door for best protection. Doors should be self-closing and self-locking. Room doors should have a deadbolt lock with at least a one-inch throw bolt. If the lock appears worn or there are pry marks around the lock area, get another room or move to another hotel. The knob-lock should be hotel-style where you can push a button on the inside knob and block out all keys. This feature is designed to prevent a former guest or housekeeper from entering the room once you are safely inside. Hotels with electronic card access have the advantage of being able to disable former key cards issued to previous guests and unauthorized employees. Electronic locks also will block out most room service keys when you set the deadbolt. The room door should have a wide-angle peephole so you can view who is at the door before opening. Do not open your door to someone who knocks unannounced. Some criminals will pretend to be a bellman, room service, maintenance, or even hotel security to gain admittance to your room. Always call the front desk to confirm their status with the hotel and only open the door if you requested the service. Do not rely on door chains or swing bars to secure the doors while you partially open the door to speak someone. These are unreliable security devices. Teach your children not to open the door of any hotel room without knowing the person on the other side and without your permission. Make sure all windows and sliding doors are secured, if they are accessible from the ground. It is a good idea to test all windows and glass doors to see if they are secure. Beware of balconies where someone can climb from one to another and enter through an open window or sliding door. If the windows or sliding doors are not securable, ask for another room or find another hotel. If your room has an adjoining door to an adjacent room, check it to see that it is secured with a deadbolt lock. If it is questionable, ask for another room. If you are a woman traveling alone or with small children, take advantage of car valet service, if available to avoid the parking lot. After checking-in, ask the bellman or desk clerk to escort you to your room. After unlocking the room, quickly inspect the closets, under the bed, and bathroom including behind the shower curtain before the bellman leaves. Tip the bellman for his efforts. Put the Do-Not-Disturb sign on the doorknob even when you are away, this deters room burglars (it may affect housekeeping service, however). Turn on the television or radio just loud enough to hear through the door to give the appearance that the room is occupied. Leave one light on inside the room if you will return after dark. This helps you see upon re-entry and gives the room the appearance of occupancy from the outside. Always go through the same room inspection routine every time you re-enter. People traveling alone should use caution when using the breakfast order door-knob hanger card, especially if the card lists your name and number of persons in the room. A smart crook can knock on the door posing as room service and use your name as a ruse to gain entry. When you find a suitable hotel that meets your safety standards and will cater to your security needs try to stick with it or with the same hotel chain. Don't be afraid to complain to management to get the safe room you deserve.
Hotel Room Invasions Like the crime of carjacking, most police agencies don’t track home or hotel room invasions as a separate crime. Most police agencies and the FBI will statistically record the crime as a residential burglary or a robbery. Without the ability to track the specific crime of hotel room invasion, little can be done to alert the public as to the frequency of occurrence or devise a law enforcement plan of action to prevent it. How Invasions are Carried Out Hotel room invasion robbers, in contrast, work more often at night when rooms are more likely to be occupied and less staff is on duty. The hotel room invaders usually target the occupant and room location and not necessarily the hotel. The selection process may include women traveling alone or senior citizens, or known drug dealers, or wealthy travelers, for example. It is not unusual for a robber to follow the victim to their hotel room based on the value of the car they were driving or the jewelry or clothes they were wearing... even being seen exiting a high-end retail establishment or restaurant can cause one to be targeted and followed. Hotel room invaders have been known to work casinos and watch for guests flashing large sums of money or jewelry. Hotel room invaders usually work alone or with just one accomplice and they rely on an overwhelming physical confrontation to gain control and instill fear in the room occupants. The violence occurs instantly with an overwhelming explosive force to take control of the room. The hotel room invaders often come equipped with handcuffs, rope, tape, and weapons. Some hotel room robbers appear to enjoy the intimidation, domination, and violence and some claim it is a "rush." Some hotel robbers are also opportunist rapist and may sexually assault their victims. Dangerous Trends Guest room robbers will sometimes use a ruse or impersonation to get you to open the door. They have been known to pretend to be room service, housekeeping, security, or delivering flowers. Clever room robbers might hold a room service tray or flowers in view of the peephole to further the impersonation. Once the door is opened for them, the hotel room invaders will use an explosive amount of force and threats to gain control of the room and produce fear in the victims. Once the occupants are under control, the robbers will begin to collect your portable valuables. Another tactic is for a robber to select a victim in the lobby and ride up in the elevator with them. They will get off on the same floor and pretend walk behind you as if going to their room. This means you need to return to the elevator and return to the lobby. Once the guest opens their door, the robber will force his way in behind them and make his demand. Weapons: A Slight Edge If you habitually carry a firearm, you tend to feel naked without one on your person while in unfamiliar circumstances. Except for active duty military or law enforcement, it is difficult to get the paperwork necessary to legally carry a firearm in a foreign country. Carrying an illegal firearm is a really, really bad idea in an unfamiliar country. Severe penalties, up to and including the death penalty, ensue if caught at it. While Mexico is currently a more dangerous place that either Iraq or Afghanistan, please understand that if NarcoTerrorists get their hands on you, you will be faced with 15 – 20 guys with AKs and M4s. Your measly popgun will just be added to their collection. Going about unarmed in potentially dangerous territory means that situational awareness and “What if...?” scenario planning are not optional. My favorite defense tools include a stun gun, and a metal extendable police baton, camouflaged with a small flashlight replacement for the end ferrule. It looks like a typical metal body flashlight, and the police don't question it. Both the flashlight extension and the baton were purchased for less than USD40 on eBay. For less than USD40 I bought a stun gun with a personal alarm and a flashlight as well as 100v stun buttons on top all included on a unit camouflaged as a cell phone. This is great... though, it will not pass close inspection as a cell phone. What is really good about it is the Argentine thieves usually demand your cell phone and your money, giving no alerts as you reach toward him with a cell phone stun gun. Also, it is very useful in a dark, dangerous area to have it up to your face pretending to talk on it so deployment is almost instantaneous. In less dangerous environments, it rides quite openly and comfortably in a cell phone carrier on my belt. Neither of these items pass airport security inspection for carrying on one's person or carry-on luggage. Checked luggage should be okay. You stand a very good chance to be arrested if you forget. I forgot once, and was able to talk my way out of getting arrested after surrendering my extendable baton. One should be able to get by with taking a ground-down razor sharp screwdriver and/or a multi-tool with a knife blade inside checked luggage. These are handy to carry while in unfamiliar surroundings. I put a plastic barrel of a ball-point pen over the sharp blade of the screwdriver, and it sits upright... held in place by yet another handkerchief... in my left-hand hip pocket. I have practiced with this item until I can whip it out and strike a telling defensive blow in less than a half second. These items pass inspection as tools you just happen to have on you. I sometimes use a belt with a push-blade knife concealed in the belt buckle. My Colombian and Argentine police buddies say that they would not even be suspicious or think of being suspicious of such items, since they don't run into them often... if ever. The Mexican police are a bit more suspicious of such items because they see stuff like this all the time with lots of Mexican nationals just released from prison in the US, as well as weekend commandos from the US. Again, one would face a high probability of arrest and detention if caught attempting to board an airplane with such items on one's person or hand luggage. See the TSA web site. You can carry pepper spray in checked luggage on some airlines. Local cops that are not trying to rip you off typically won't hassle you for having it for self defense. It is not against the law in any part of the world that I am aware of. An Example: Two US guys off a private sailboat walking down the street in beautiful downtown Cartegena, Colombia in broad daylight when five thugs armed with knives tried to pull them into an alley to have their dastardly way. The sailors applied pepper spray and fled easily. The cops were televised grinning and slapping the sailors' backs in congratulation for having foiled the crooks. The reports talked a lot about the fact that the sailors had used pepper spray, and marveling at the fact that the pepper spray had so effectively disabled the crooks that they were still coughing and spitting 20 minutes later when the cops arrested them. The small, compressed gas capsicum pepper spray canister can easily fit in the pocket, even on a key chain and is available anywhere. These canisters are usually available for purchase in any country, perhaps in a salvage/surplus/sporting goods retailer. If you prefer, It is legal to carry a small plastic bottle or baggie with cayenne pepper in checked luggage on an airplane. You could also carry an EMPTY plastic squeeze bottle, and mix up a little cocktail in the bottle with the pepper when you get access to some water at your location. I haven't used it on humans, but it worked really, really well on uncontrolled dogs trying to chase me down the street. Again, carry these items in checked luggage only. The good news is that accurately applied pepper compounds really work. I have seen very tall, large muscle bound guys rolling on the ground screaming for their mommy, while the petite 4 foot 9 inch lady at their side is just crying quietly. The bad news is, don't bring pepper spray to a gunfight. Also, I have used pepper spray on guys lit to the gills on crystal meth doesn't work. Doesn't even slow 'em down. A really, really drunk Mejicano I used it on also didn't seem to notice. Like anything else, pepper spray defense is an excellent option for most people, and can be considered legal almost everywhere. However, it requires good judgment and adult behavior. An Example: Not so long ago, two US guys were leaving their sailboat in an African port. It was around sundown, and they were walking to a restaurant about a mile away. They noticed a group of locals giving them the eye as the sailors ambled away. They soon passed beyond sight of any passers by.. The dock areas were deserted. They noticed a guy running parallel to them on a path about 50 yards away in their direction of travel. They realized that they were in trouble... unarmed at night and in a foreign port with no witnesses. Sure enough, the thug ran up even to them and held them at bay 30 feet away with a pistol as his two thug friends came running up from behind. Even with martial arts training, this was the perfect setup for the thugs... no way to reach the guy with the gun before suffering serious injury, two unarmed thugs shaking them down for all their valuables. The even lost their secret hideaway stashes, and were stripped of all of their goodies. They later said the thugs searched them from the skin out, including shoes. And only the crotch area was safe. Because they were unarmed, they were left alive. The criminal with the gun had the drop on them... going for a gun would have resulted in sustaining serious injuries. This was not a scenario for a quick-draw exhibition. The police and port officials reported that the tourists were lucky. The hijack group was highly experienced and professional. Mostly, the less professional groups in the area at that time just shot you dead and took what they wanted. What have we learned from this? Playing the “What if... ?” game, we may make suggestions.
In this instance they had a few moments after noticing the running gunman where they could have drawn their firearms. When I carry a weapon in a dangerous area, I carry it in a shopping bag or a folded magazine/newspaper... even a hat or cap... with my hand on the grip, finger off the trigger. Just drape a handkerchief over your cocked and locked pistol if necessary, keep your ready weapon in a convenient pocket or under your shirt... but you must have your firearm in your hand ready to use, not holstered. I practice these things in the safety of my home. With 20/20 hindsight, several people were going to get hurt that night if the victims had at least one firearm in their hand... but, at the time, they had no knowledge that the usual practice was to kill the victims, and might have hesitated to fire. They would have guiltily realized at this time that they should not have been there in the first place... realizing that they had ignored the danger clues when leaving the secure marina. They might have realized that their many hours of target practice were not sufficient for a situation requiring split-second instinctive shooting at someone who had 'the drop' on them and would be shooting at them. The only chance with a weapon in this scenario would be to turn to face their attacker, cooly bring up the pistol up and take their best shot. The chances of this action being successful were not good even if they already had the gun out and ready. Gunfights are serious matters. The outcome is serious... as the book says, No Second Place Winner. Using a firearm to wound or kill an attacker will change your life forever. We all have to look at a gunfight as an admission of guilt, of failure. You probably shouldn't have been there in the first place. A gunfight is evidence of bad judgment, unless it happens defending your family in your own home, a carjacking, etc. We must plan to be arrested after such an incident, and carry local phone numbers of attorneys/embassy officials/personal and/or business acquaintances for notification of your situation. Also, it is important to know the local laws regarding such incidents. It would be a good idea to read up on gunfights and take an instinctive shooting course if you plan to travel armed. Most importantly, practice, practice, practice. If using a semi-auto, arm yourself with a CO2 pistol as close to the type you will be using, practice drawing and firing BBs as trained in an instinctive shooting course. Practice walking, running or sitting while shooting. Practice shooting from different types of cover from different positions. Practice instinctive shooting in low light conditions. I use my J-frame .357 with wax bullets/primers/plastic shells that I make up myself. My friends who hate guns actually enjoy this activity and look at it as play. I don't. I practice at 7 – 15 feet--about the useful range for a wax bullet--shooting at a cardboard poster. You can just tape a silhouette target over a cardboard box. You must literally train for hundreds of hours if you want to get into peak performance. And, why would you not want to be the best you can in such critical situations? An Example: A more successful outcome. It was Christmas in Houston, and my friend Sara was at Sharpstown Mall carrying lots of packages and shopping bags as she went to exit the mall to go to her car. Since the lot was crowded, her car was not in an optimal location for security. Sara's situational awareness kicked in. She saw that it had gotten dark early, as it does in Houston at that time of year. She noticed some young thugs hanging around the exit. Sara returned to the mall, sought out a security guard, and requested that he escort her to her car, but he refused. Sara stood at the door for a while, contemplating a route to her car that would avoid parked vans in the lot... the criminals' vehicle of choice in Houston at that time... took careful note of who was visible from her vantage point, and plotted her course. Before she started out, she carefully sat down her packages and removed her keys and... discretely... a very small .22 caliber pistol which she concealed in her strong hand, retrieved her packages with her purse over her gun arm and set out to her car. As she was on her way, she turned around several times to scope out the other people in the lot and what they were doing. She planned to return to the mall and insist on an escort if she didn't like what she saw. When she got to her car, she was putting her keys in the door lock when a young thug rushed up to her and yelled some obscenities and threats at her as he grabbed Sara's purse, attached to her gun arm by the strap. The action caused Sara's pistol's pointy end to actually go up his nose. He said... and I quote Sara's description... “Whoa, Mamma! Be cool.” Sara said, “This is as cool as I get.” The thug's friends were running up to help, but the young thug said, “Let's get outta here She got a PIECE up my nose”, and they all took off running. Sara immediately drove to the nearest police station to report the attempted crime and the mall security guard's indifference. She later found out that the young criminals were part of a large group that kept a rental van parked in a central location, and the various teams were dropping off their ill-gotten swag so their hands were free for more crime without encumbrance. Several older people were hurt that night in the Sharpstown Mall parking lot. One younger victim, a man, tried to resist with his wife and children present and ended up in the hospital with permanent damage from the beating he got. In the two preceding examples we see that options only exist for the wary. The two sailors ignored the little stomach lurch of instinct when they saw thugs eying them. Had the group of thugs that targeted them been less professional, they would probably have died for ignoring their instincts. It only takes one mistake like that... an instant of recognition that was ignored... to end our lives. Sara's example ended well because she understood that only outstanding situational awareness and planning via “What if... ?” scenarios can help us survive potentially dangerous situations. Even though she was armed, Sara's pistol would have ended up as part of the criminal swag had she not had it in her hand and “gotten the drop” on her own private thug. She probably would have sustained a few injuries as the thug pistol-whipped her with her own gun for being dumb enough to carry a pistol she wasn't ready to use. Please keep in mind that thugs hate you and everyone else that has more than they have. They have only contempt for those who have less. As they gain more experience at thuggery, they develop a bored indifference to violence and will kill without remorse and spend their swag on a nice meal immediately after a rewarding murder. If you are in law enforcement, you already know this. Ex-military people who have been in Close Quarters Combat know how to shoot instinctively, how to survive a gun battle, and how to keep their heads on a swivel. They are adept at the “What if... ?” game. Unlike police officers who have survived many criminal confrontations, they may lack other important skill sets. Whomever you may be, it is important to brutally analyze your inventory skill sets, try to determine which sets you lack, and work on trying to improve your chances in a criminal confrontation. Please keep in mind that though Sara did everything right except be in a crime-prone area... not very avoidable in Houston at that time... she had to use every skill set she had plus a lot of nerve to survive unscathed her criminal confrontation. And, yes... street survival is a mind game. Decoy Money: Consider keeping about US$30 to $50 folded up in a place where you can get to it. If an armed thief comes up to you, give it to him. He may just go away and leave you alone. Seriously… it's been reported as a successful ploy and may save you. Be aware that I have seen video of five armed guys stripping a guy on the street at night. There is no hiding place when you’re barefoot and naked, unless you have your goodies in a tube inserted into a body cavity. If you can avoid that by giving them the bait money, good for you. If not… you’re gonna lose the bait money and everything else anyway. Just a thought: consider carrying the bait money in small bills and throw them to the wind so you can get a head start in running to a safer place very fast. I know from personal experience that this works... sometimes. I also carry my pepper spray concealed in my hand with my finger on the trigger while observing suspicious activity. Since I am not allowed to carry a firearm in my residence country, I need the pepper spray to get far enough away to pull my collapsible baton/flashlight combo as I run toward a safer place. And, yes, I have trained in baton tactics, read many instruction manuals and scenarios, and practice, practice, practice. Dress for Success Stun Guns Collapsible baton: This is my all-time favorite. But be advised, to the best of my knowledge a baton is not legal in any part of the world. However, it is easily concealable. I carry my 17 inch (extended) baton from eBay discretely in a jeans hip pocket. I paid extra for an LED flashlight butt from eBay so it appears to be a flashlight with a long handle. It doesn't even look extendable. The flashlight module gives good light and replaces the butt ferrule. If you are fluent in the local language, do not show off or act like a jerk, you may be get by okay with a collapsible baton in most countries. An Example: I have carried my "flashlight with an extensible handle" in Mexico, in Colombia and Argentina on and off cruise ships (the worst questioning I had to endure while going thru bag checks by cruise ship personnel). I had a problem with an federal officer checking hand luggage at the Buenos Aires airport. I had planned to leave it at my Argentine home. I forgot it was in a small bag stuffed in my carry-on luggage. Woops! I was embarrassed. This could have been serious if I wasn't muy fluido en castellano and such an obviously nice, friendly guy. This guy was giving me a bad case of cop eye as I smiled and explained that it was a flashlight. With an expressionless face, he extended it. I showed him my Florida commercial appraiser license and explained it was for seeing into dark corners while appraising buildings. He said... "Sir, this is a weapon". I smiled and stuck it in the box they had there for disposing of small knives, scissors, et cetera. Still smiling, I shrugged my shoulders and got the rest of my stuff together and departed, dignity almost intact. My wife was laughing. I heard the Feds laughing, too. I was out $40 for my own stupidity. It would have been fine in checked luggage. No problem... I got another one via eBay for about $50 and resolved to always re-check the contents carry-on bags prior to leaving home. In any country, it seems reasonable to follow some common sense safety tactics:
If your attempt to be inconspicuous is unsuccessful, your defensive tactics aren't a good idea and you find yourself naked on the side of the road with a bunch of bad guys, here are some tips that were passed down from folks who have succeeded in getting away from the NarcoTerror boys.
[Tomorrow, Part 2.] « Letter Re: Advice on Water Barrel Pumps |Main| Inventory Control for Retreat Logistics, by Rob C. » Tuesday August 25 2009Letter Re: Laser Protective Goggles
Sir: JWR Replies: The problem is that you need a separate filter for each ranges of wavelengths (measured in nanometers). By the time that you stack enough filters to stop all of the non-eye safe laser threats, you end up with something about as opaque as welder's goggles. I guess this explains why the Stormtroopers in Star Wars There may be some practical countermeasures. My best guess is that it would be Alexandrite lasers that would be used for intentional blinding, as I described in "Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse". Do a web search on "Dazer and Stingray." You will find some scary stuff. I discussed both eye safe and non-eye safe lasers in a series of articles that I wrote when I was a full time associate editor for Defense Electronics magazine, back in the late 1980s. These articles concerned the U.S. Army's now defunct Dazer (hand held) and Stingray (tactical vehicle and aircraft-mounted) laser weapon programs. Both had been intended to counter enemy EO sensors, but were unfortunately indiscriminate in damaging the Mark I human eyeball. (They used high power Alexandrite lasers, which have a wavelength that is not eye safe.) As I recall, the Dazer program was cancelled around 1992, and the larger Stingray system development was de-funded in 1996, right around the time of ratification of the UN Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons. (Main reference: Rawles, James W. "Directed Energy Weapons: Battlefield Beams." Defense Electronics, August 1989. v. 21, no. 8, p. 47-54.) If you buy a pair of goggles or sunglasses designed to protect against Alexandrite lasers (+/- 755 nanometers), they would also have some effectiveness against lasers in adjacent wavelengths. « Economics and Investing: |Main| Surviving an Expedient Ambush Roadblock While Traveling by Vehicle, by M.W. » Saturday August 22 2009Letter Re: Cattle Rustling on the Rise
James, Secondly, one of my cattle buyers, corroborated by one of my truckers, has informed me of some signs-of-the-times, unconfirmed via regular news outlets so far, cattle rustling in Pennsylvania is on the rise, including something not usually seen, carcass remnants. Several barns/pastures have cattle missing, one load of which was recovered at a sale barn, and at least a half dozen reports from different farmers finding carcasses, with primals cut out, in remote portions of hill pastures. I also found this news article and this ABC News video clip. We all saw the report from Florida about horse butchering, but this is slightly different, IMO. We run cattle on quite a few different operations and are concerned at this potential loss of wealth. We have invested heavily in livestock to preserve wealth, reproduce wealth, insure a food supply and, well it’s also our business! We are holding our first “cattle works” in a few weeks and will be branding all our horses and cattle. It may not solve/reduce all the problems, but we believe it will help. Thanks for your efforts, you are performing a valuable service. - Trent H., in a Rural Corner of Pennsylvania « Economics and Investing: |Main| Camouflage: The Art of the "Liar", by T.W.P. » Friday August 21 2009Letter Re: Preparedness for Living on a Chesapeake Bay IslandMr. Rawles, JWR Replies: A few things come immediately to mind:
Your situation is unusual, but not unique. Make the best of the local resources, and organize with your neighbors to provide a common defense. One could safely predict that in the event of a "slow slide" depression, you may see a situation develop similar to that of present-day Roatan Island (off the coast of Honduras), where burglars and even home invasion robbers commute to the island from the mainland via ferryboat. « Letter Re: Burros for TEOTWAWKI Transport |Main| The Open Carry Debate Catches Mainstream Attention » Wednesday August 19 2009What Divides You from The Sheeple? Plenty!Nearly every week, I get at least one frantic e-mail from a new SurvivalBlog reader, stating that they feel woefully under-prepared. The gist of these e-mails is: "I'm behind the power curve! How can I possibly get prepared in time?" Fear not! Just by reading SurvivalBlog and taking some small, gradual steps at preparedness, you are miles ahead of your sheeple neighbors. And even with just modest preparedness measures, you have already substantially increased your chances of surviving most scenarios. As I see it, here are your advantages: Awareness Skills and Knowledge Networking Tools Planning Logistics Locale Communications Capacity for Charity The Bottom Line « Letter Re: The Virtues of Fasting Experience for Well-Rounded Preparedness |Main| Note from JWR: » Tuesday August 11 2009Letter Re: Surviving 90 Miles from the US -- A Cuban-American Exile's ViewA brief background of myself. I am an Telecommunications Engineer, I served three years in the Cuban army as an Engineer in several units (it was mandatory unless you were integrated with the system, in which case you will get a better civilian job). After I served my time they did not want to release me (basically no one wants to stay unless you are willing to do their bidding) so they offered 2 years to a very harsh unit that stays in the mountains for months end ready to be sent anywhere, or stay for 20 years in very comfortable position as an Engineer, I sucked up the two years (30 months The government controls everything, I mean everything, from health, to communications, from commerce to defense. When government controls everything there is absolutely nothing you can do. They determine what is legal and sometimes they let you get away with it, as long as you do not mess with the regime. They can take you to jail for anything because as I said everything is illegal. You cannot legally sell a house, only cars that were in the country before 1959 can be sold legally, [Owning a] DirecTV [satellite television receiver] is illegal. The list goes on and on. In order to survive you must depend on the government or go black market. There is something called the Comite de Defensa de la Revolucion (CDR), basically is an organization at community block level that monitors everything that happens and reports to the government, it is completely volunteer, but it tells you how low citizens will go. Electrical Power is obviously controlled by the government, and they impose restrictions so you will have times that power will come on for only a few hours a day, people have converters because generators are hard to get and even harder to get gas for them (it is expensive, a gallon goes for about 8 dollars a gallon last time I heard), to use the converter you hide in a room to watch some TV, have a fan for the heat and that's it. You must try to hide, as much as you can, the things that you have, because you might get robbed. Being robbed at home is nothing new, you try to be as modest Water is also government controlled, it does the same as with the electrical power, you can go days without water, so every house has water tanks to store water, even in buildings people will have water tanks in the bathroom. Drinking water always needs to be boiled. People will raise pigs in a bathtub in the bathroom or if you are lucky to have a small backyard and someone to watch over it because it will be stolen. Pig will give meat and the fat you need to cook. People that live in the countryside can raise animals and food, they can sell it under government supervision, they cannot become wealthy because government will intervene and accuse them of "exploiting" others. It is illegal to kill a cow or a horse, as the government has a strict control. [If you slaughter one without prior approval and are caught,] you will serve the same time as if you killed a human being. People will slaughter a cow and dispose of it in two hours and "disappear" the remains by burning it with car tires because it burns very hot. And then you have to be careful how to transport [the meat] because they will have checkpoints. They can stop you anywhere, anytime for any reason and ask to search your vehicle. You have to be extremely careful on who you trust, because they could be a government informer. (Did you see how our government is asking [their allies] to report when they see something "fishy" about [opposition to socialized] healthcare? That scares the h*** out of me.) Not everyone can move to the countryside because the government controls that, they control movement within the country, you just can't pick up your stuff and decide to move, so you have to make a living where you are. In the countryside you'll have more food but they will cut electrical power more often. I used to install alarms (on my own, I refused to work for the government) for farmers that had pigs, pigs are raised in jail-like cages to avoid thievery, so I would install an alarm with battery backup because they had so much power shortages. It goes without saying that [privately-owned] guns are illegal. I just wanted to give an idea about how people live under a [total] government-controlled country. They will slowly take away your liberties and you will find out one day that you have nothing. And your fellow citizens will go as low as they can to survive. Government would threaten their family and force you to do what they say. This is always under the [mantle of] "we are doing it for the benefit of the majority, and only because we are in a crisis", but there is always a crisis. They will say that you do not want to work for the improvement of the country, that you are against your people, they will make things up, and suddenly you will become a pariah. Does it sound familiar "... these mobs against health care are destroying the democratic process..." Next it will be "they are organized by the enemies of democracy" and suddenly "we need to eliminate this threats to our democracy". Never think it cannot happen [here in the United States]. Sincerely, - Ignacio « Economics and Investing: |Main| Note from JWR: » Sunday August 9 2009Delay and Pray: Why the FDIC is Broke, by Dr. Gary North
"If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen." -- [Gary North's] universal law of bureaucracy Burt Lance was briefly the head of the Office of Management and Budget under Jimmy Carter. He was a Good Old Boy from the banking world of Georgia. A William Safire piece, "Broken Lance," created enough bad publicity to persuade Lance to retire in September 1977. The article won Safire a Pulitzer Price. Lance's aphorism, taken from the South, has been with us ever since. I made up the second aphorism. It is based on my 40+ years of studying government bureaucracies. The FDIC adheres to the second rule with remarkable tenacity. It closes no banks until Friday afternoon. This ensures that there will not be a run on the bank. BANK RUNS A bank run today is not the old-fashioned kind that we see every Christmas season when we watch "It's a Wonderful Life." That was a pre-FDIC bank run. A bank run took place in the Great Depression when depositors, who had been promised payment in currency on demand, exercised their contractual rights. The banks were unable to fulfill their contractual obligations because they had loaned out the Longest of all for banks were home mortgages: five years with 50% down. Longest of all were home loans made by Building & Loans, what we called Savings & Loans until the crisis of the mid-1980's forced them to become banks. "Borrowed short and lent long." That was Jimmy Stewart's problem in the movie. Potter ran a solvent bank. He had not made long-term loans. The bank could cash in his short-term loans and pay its depositors. It could meet its contractual obligations. Wicked, mean Potter! In contrast was the lovable George Bailey. His institution had made long-term loans. It stayed solvent during a bank run only because (1) Bailey gave up his $2,000 honeymoon [savings] money (about $20,000 in today's money); and (2) the bank run ended at 6 p.m. The bank run did not start up again the next day. That wasn't the work of Clarence, the wingless angel. That was the work of Frank Capra's screenwriters. Over 6,000 small banks went bankrupt, 1930-33. The FDIC was created in 1934 to prevent that kind of bank run. Its presence calmed depositors, who knew that a government- chartered institution insured their accounts. The FDIC eliminated the old-fashioned bank run. It replaced it with the modern bank run. This is the type of run we see every Friday afternoon. This run does not involve depositors going to a suspect bank's ATM and pulling out currency. No one uses that much currency in conventional markets -- only in black markets, Latino men on the street corner markets, and gun shows. Instead, they send a bank wire draft to make a deposit in a different bank. Or they write a check to a different bank and open an account. When the money is deducted from the first bank, this reduced its liabilities. This must be balanced by an equal reduction of its assets. But a bank that is in trouble has illiquid assets. It must sell these at a loss. The net worth of the bank falls. The capitalized value of the bank falls. By law, the FDIC must intervene to shut down the bank when the solvency of the bank is threatened. This law is not being obeyed. Why not? "If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen." Why does the FDIC wait until Friday afternoon to announce that a bank has been closed by the FDIC. To make the transfer of ownership legal by Monday morning, when it opens for business. "Under new management" means "you don't have to send your money elsewhere." This reduces fear. If the FDIC closed a bank on Monday, before it had lined up a buyer, there would be a run on the bank all week. Depositors would shift their funds elsewhere. The FDIC would still be left holding the bag. The bag would have lots more IOUs to depositors by the end of the week. It is a bag filled with red ink. The FDIC is liable for the deposits. The more pulled deposits, the lower the capitalized value of the bank. This means the FDIC is on the hook for more money. It wanted an outside bank to buy these liabilities and assets. If the liabilities must be covered by the FDIC, the FDIC must sell its assets. It has less than $12 billion in assets remaining. It had $52.4 billion in 2007. The following letter is posted on the FDIC's web site. It is from an unidentified banker in Alabama. Here, we read the following: If the public were to understand that the FDIC's deposit insurance fund was at or near the point of depletion there would be a massive run on every bank in the country and the any remaining stability in the financial industry would be gone. This would likely result in the government having to take over more of these failed institutions and eventually having to guarantee all deposits thus resulting in a nationalized If the FDIC posts a letter like this on its web site, then I conclude that the FDIC takes seriously this scenario. How much money does the FDIC have in reserve? How much money in commercial bank deposits does Where does the FDIC invest its assets? Who insures these assets? At the end of 2008, its annual report revealed that reserves were down to $17.2 billion (Fund balance -- ending). That was down from $52.4 billion at the end of 2007. Beginning in January 2009, 69 banks have failed. The list is here. [JWR Adds: Since Gary wrote this article last week, the tally of failed banks for 2009 has increased to 72.] The general estimate is that the FDIC's reserves are around $12 billion. They were at $13 billion in March. The ratio of FDIC reserves to banks assets covered was 0.27%, or 27 cents for every $100 in bank deposits. The FDIC keeps its [so-called] reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury debt. So, every time it sells T-bills, the government must find a buyer, presumably in the private sector. The FDIC has access to money only by moving T-bills out of the government sector and into the private sector. If there are no buyers, the Federal Reserve will buy the T-bills. So, the Federal Reserve System is the ultimate insurer of the banking system. How can it do this? By creating money out of nothing. The FDIC has an incentive to delay the announcement of another bank failure. If the bank can somehow dig its way out of its crisis, the FDIC conserves its reserves. In March of 2009 Senator Dodd introduced a bill into the Senate, S. 541. If passed, it will grant the FDIC a $500 billion line of credit. It has not been debated in the Senate or the House. Why not? Publicity. "If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen." The FDIC is delaying the announcement of its takeover of three regional banks whose liabilities could deplete the FDIC's reserves. Karl Denninger posted a revealing report on his site on August 2. It considered the situation facing these three banks. Two of them have reported negative Tier-1 Ratios. This means that they have a negative ratio of assets versus liabilities. They are legally bankrupt. It has $20 billion in assets. How much money might the FDIC be forced to raise by selling its own assets if this bank goes under? In the case of Florida's BankUnited, which had $12.8 billion in assets, the FDIC had to pony up almost $5 billion. That was a loss of 40% of assets, Denninger points out. Yet the bank showed nothing like this loss until it was shut down. Neither did IndyMac. The FDIC has not closed any of the three banks. By law, it must take Protective Corrective Action, Denninger says. It hasn't. These three banks are regional banks, not small local banks whose losses the FDIC can afford to absorb without much publicity on a Friday afternoon.
PAR FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S COURSE Why did the other busted banks suffer such enormous percentage losses when the banks' accountants revealed nothing like this? Denninger offers a cogent explanation. An enormous number of banks are holding loans at or close to "par" that really aren't. They're holding mortgages at massively-inflated values, even on defaulted properties, and this is why you If this is true, which I think it is, then the continuing crisis in housing will pressure the banks even more. The suggestion that the crisis is over ignores the looming losses from defaults on re-sets of Alt-A mortgages and Option ARM mortgages. Over he next two years, they will rival the losses inflicted on lenders by subprime mortgages. The chart is here. Denninger's conclusion seems sensible to me. The claim of banking sector health and "successful rescue by Treasury and The Fed" is in fact false. No such thing has occurred. What's going on here is nothing more or less than intentional false claims of asset "valuation", which is repeatedly exposed when the FDIC is finally forced to seize institutions, exposing the lies. Then, suddenly, 20, 30, even 40% losses on alleged "asset books" come out into the The banks are allowed to carry these dead and dying assets on their books at par value. This is par for the course -- the government's course. [Like Denninger], I believe the FDIC is broke and knows it; that under the law they should have seized these three banks (and many dozens more, including some really big ones) some time ago, but doing so will force them to tap the Treasury "emergency" credit line. They're well-aware that this could instill quite a bit of panic in the public (never mind Congress!); as such they, along with [the Office of Thrift Supervision] OTS and [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] OCC are conspiring to (once again) hide the truth and pray for an economic recovery before they are forced to act as the law demanded months or even years ago! This policy of delay and pray is pushing up the stock market. He pointed out that insider sales by corporate executives are higher today than an any time since late 2007. They know what is going on inside their own firms. CONCLUSIONS When banks refuse to sell empty foreclosed houses, the houses deteriorate. The bankers delay and pray, hoping the housing market will turn back up. They don't want to list these properties as losses. They are allowed to delay such a listing until the properties are sold. Empty houses deteriorate fast: weather, squatters, and vandals. This is why private property insurance firms revoke property damage insurance after 30 days of vacancy. These capital losses are mounting, thereby lowering the value of the loans' collateral. These are hidden losses. The lenders' books do not record these losses. The longer banks delay sales of foreclosed houses, the greater the capital losses for these banks. The longer the FDIC refuses to close these banks and get these properties sold, the larger the losses the FDIC will suffer when it finally closes the banks. The longer these empty houses are not sold, the longer this sword of Damocles hangs over the residential real estate market. This delays the recovery: too much inventory. This "shadow inventory" is not reported to any official institution. No one knows how large it is nationally. All that investors know is that it is large, and it will get larger. Delay and pray will fail. But no government official will lose his or her job when the day of reckoning comes. Delay and pray will therefore continue. "If it is broke, don't admit it before you absolutely must, and then blame it on events that no one could have foreseen." « Economics and Investing: |Main| Underground Survival Shelter Construction and Security--Learn from My Mistakes, by B.B. » Saturday August 8 2009Letter Re: Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready? Mr. Rawles: « Letter Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals--Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe? |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Thursday August 6 2009Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?
The hard economic times that I--and many others--warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer. This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it. Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term "white trash" comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his "austere" budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children's school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate! This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.) It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin' Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their "Energy" drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don't be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies. In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: "The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe." Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression:
Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up. One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative's basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, "rolled up sleeves" work. « Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready? » Letter Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals--Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe?
Good Morning. JWR Replies: No, bank boxes will probably be unavailable, since in bank holiday, bank lobbies will be closed to the public. In fact, the "worst case" for hard money preppers would be the combination of a bank holiday and a simultaneous gold confiscation a la 1933. I can foresee that you would only have access to your safe deposit box under the watchful eye of a sworn officer, on your first deposit box access following a gold seizure--either by executive order or by an act of congress. So your options include private (non-bank vault companies--very few and far between, unless you live in Las Vegas), or hidden storage caches at home. I prefer the latter. For details, see this piece that I wrote about wall and door caches in SurvivalBlog. Coincidentally, reader Mike O. recently sent me the link to this LifeHacker article: Where and How to Safely Hide Cash in Your Home. And soon after, reader Andrew D. sent this: Seven Secret Places to Hide Cash in Your Home. You gotta love synchronicity. « Economics and Investing: |Main| Gear Up -- Appropriate and Redundant Technologies for Prepared Families » Tuesday July 28 2009Letter Re: Shoot or Don't Shoot--Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life
James, « Letter Re: Your Dog's G.O.O.D. Bag |Main| Note from JWR: » Monday July 27 2009Community Disaster Recovery--Asking the Right People the Right Questions
I was pleased to see this post over at the Mountain Steps blog: A letter to our county commissioner about emergency preparation for hyperinflation. It is commendable to make such inquiries, but it is essential to ask detailed questions. Especially when contacting elected officials, vague, general questions tend to elicit vague, general answers, and hence most likely no action will be taken. It is also essential that you do some research first, to direct your inquiry letter or phone call to the right individuals. Flunkies don't create or change policy, they just implement it. You need to direct your letter to someone that has the authority to make policy, and has the budget to implement it. (In some cases, this will mean separate contacts to whomever controls the purse strings.) I recommend that you ask detailed questions, such as: Do you have a back-up generator, and how many days of fuel do you keep on hand? What is your contingency plan to implement before that fuel runs out? Can you continue to operate without grid power? If not, then what contingency plans do you have? Is the city's water supply gravity fed, from end to end? If not, then what contingency plans have been put in place to provide water to utility customers, in the event of a grid power interruption longer than 48 hours? And ask: Are electrically-pumped filters used, or traditional gravity filters? Then, if you discover that the water system is mostly via gravity, but it uses electric pumps only for pressurized filtration, then ask: If electrically-pumped filters are used, then has a disaster contingency waiver been established with the USEPA, (for turbidity and other standards), to allow bypassing of filters in the event of a grid-down emergency situation? Similarly detailed letters or phone inquiries should be made to your local irrigation district, your fire department, power utility, phone companies (both cellular and land line), refinery, hospital, kidney dialysis clinic, coal mine, National Guard, grocery store, et cetera. Do not expect the grid to magically stay up and running, Assume the worst case, and plan accordingly. OBTW, one key word to search for when estimating the resiliency of your community's infrastructure is co-generation. Find out where the co-gen plants are, and their capacity! « Economics and Investing: |Main| Controlling Pain Where There is No Doctor, by Bill R. » Saturday July 25 2009Letter Re: Power Failure AlarmsJames; JWR Replies: There are fairly inexpensive commercially-made plug-in power failure alarms available via mail order for under $15. (Or under $20 each at larger home improvement stores.) I recommend buying one for each bedroom, and one for your generator house. (The 86 dB alarm is not loud enough to be heard from far away, but having a light on for you at your generator house on a dark, snowy night is a very welcome sight!) Needless to say, these are a must for sleep apnea patients that use a CPAP machine, or for anyone else that uses other 120 VAC medical devices for chronic health issues. These alarms work fine for houses with grid power, or for houses with backup generators. (The alarm will trip before an auto-start backup generator kicks in.) If you have a grid-tied alternative energy system, you would of course need to plug one of these into an outlet that is exclusively grid-powered. If you live off-grid, you won't have any way of knowing, but then again, if your level of concern for such an event will probably be minimal. If your specific concern is a power failure in the event of EMP, then you could always wire up a battery-powered traditional buzzer with a "normally closed" relay. (When the grid power is disconnected, the relay closes, and energizes the DC buzzer circuit.) That is 1920s-era technology that would be EMP proof. « Letter Re: The Quasi-Reality Television Show "The Colony" |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday July 24 2009Shoot or Don't Shoot--Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life, by Jeff R.It doesn’t have to be TEOTWAWKI for a person to be faced with the choice of shoot or don’t shoot. Everyday in the United States a police officer somewhere makes that choice (sometimes they choose “don’t shoot”). All too often, average Joe or Jane Citizen must make that choice. Hopefully dear reader, that day will never come for you, but if it does, here are a few things to help you not hesitate when necessity requires that you pull the trigger, and to help you live with the consequences. Decide now that you will shoot another person if it becomes necessary. Pondering the morality, worrying about the legal ramifications, hoping you’re making the right decision--these are all tasks that should be resolved now, before the time comes to shoot. There is no way around the cold, hard fact that launching a copper-jacketed ball of lead into another person’s torso will cause serious bodily injury or death. Not to be harsh, but that is the whole point of the exercise. Resolve these issues now: What are the legal justifications where I live for taking a human life? More importantly, what reasons are not legally justified? Self-defense, defense of others, and defense of property are generally accepted to be valid reasons for using deadly force (use caution in some jurisdictions with the defense of property). In Texas, most law enforcement agencies won’t blink when a citizen kills an intruder or an attacker. The Texas Penal Code even has an affirmative defense for the use of deadly force to prevent the consequences of theft after nightfall. Know the laws concerning the use of deadly force where you live. Don’t just know about them--know them. If you are unclear about the meaning of the laws, ask your district attorney’s office--or better yet--your state’s Attorney General’s office. Often the AG of a state will have already published opinions on these issues. Asking a police officer may seem like a good idea, but they have different justifications for using deadly force, and citing one officer’s opinion is not likely to dissuade prosecution. For example, a police officer can appeal to the court decision of Tennessee vs. Garner after shooting a fleeing felon, but you probably will not be able to use that justification with success. Another benefit of consulting the district attorney’s office with your questions about deadly force is that it is the district attorney’s office that decides who gets prosecuted and who does not. A shooting that occurs with reasonable legal justification that is further supported by the legal opinions of the district attorney’s office would be an unlikely candidate for prosecution (YMMV). Here again, know you local laws well. Familiarity with temperament of local law enforcement and the district attorney’s office concerning the use of deadly force by a private citizen is also helpful. The observations and opinions of individual law enforcement officers is a good place to get this information. If you are involved in a shooting and it appears there may be an official inquiry, forget flashy, emotional phrases that uninformed people throw around, such as “shoot-to-kill,” “shoot-to-wound,” or “shoot-to” anything. Facts, not flash, will win the day. You didn’t shoot to do anything other than to stop the action and end the danger to yourself and your family. The old shoot-to-kill question is a trap that has been used on police officers in court; “if you shot to kill, why could you not shoot-to-wound?” Anybody familiar with defense shooting knows that close quarters shootings involve little more than shoving the gun at the target and firing. Likewise, nobody involved in a shooting has the luxury of time to ponder nonsense questions like the above. What are the reasons I personally believe are justification for taking a human life? Your own life and limb, and that of your family are givens--at least they should be. I doubt any reader of this blog has an issue with that. Deadly force to prevent theft--even though it may be legal--will likely present a moral dilemma. I would not kill to prevent the theft of my car stereo. In my mind, that is not a reasonable use of force. Somebody trying to steal supplies vital to my family’s survival is another issue. Now a simple theft has become a potential threat to my family, and deadly force becomes a reasonable option. Know your personal boundaries in the use of deadly force as well as you know the laws that govern its use. What are my religious convictions or personal concerns about killing? I can only speak to this issue as it relates to Christians, although any moral person must wrestle with these questions and come to their own conclusions. When the time comes to shoot, understand that: 1. Your target made the choice that has placed them in your gun sights. They understood the dangers and ramifications of their scheme before they did it. They are expecting you‑‑their potential victim--to be too weak, frightened, or morally conflicted to resist with violence. Disappoint their expectations. 2. By killing them, you are not sending them to Hell. They have made their life choices that have brought them to this moment. God is the judge--he will decide their eternal fate. You are simply deciding that your fate and the fate of your family are not to die at this person’s hand. Contrast your concern for this person with this biblical admonition to the head of the household: “But if any provide not for his own, and specially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith, and is worse than an infidel.” (I Timothy 5:8). “Provide,” as it is used here, means more than just bringing home the bacon. It encompasses all facets of provision--food, shelter, and safety. It means literally, “to take thought for; to care for.” One of your Christian duties to your family is security. 3. Killing is not always murder. God of the Old Testament who issued the commandment “Thou shalt not murder” also instructed the Israelites to kill many times during their conquest of the Promise Land. Many righteous people of the Old Testament drew blood. As odd as this may sound, righteousness and killing are not mutually exclusive. And while one may choose to debate its meaning, I interpret Jesus’ instructions to the disciples in Luke 22 to sell their cloaks and purchase swords as divine justification for the deadly force option in self-defense. 4. Having to kill is a traumatic experience. Should you have to make the choice to shoot, be prepared for the emotional turmoil that will inevitably follow. If it isn’t TEOTWAWKI, seek out counseling if necessary to work through the trauma. Whether it is TEOTWAWKI or not, remember that at the time you made your decision to shoot it was a clear-cut issue, and you acted decisively. Second-guessing yourself will only add to the turmoil. Reflect on the positives--you saved your life and the lives of your family or other innocents. Defense of the weak or defenseless is a noble thing. Don’t beat yourself up. By preparing for the worst ahead of time, you can find peace after making one of the hardest decisions a human being can be forced to make. About the Author: Jeff R. has bachelor's degree in Pastoral Ministry, and has served as a youth pastor/associate pastor at churches in two states. He has also served for several years as a law enforcement officer and is now emplyoed by a major metropolitan police department in Texas. « Letter Re: Some Crucial Readiness: Preparing for Joy |Main| Shoot or Don't Shoot--Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life, by Jeff R. » Letter Re: The Quasi-Reality Television Show "The Colony"
James, The show did illustrate how most of us who are unprepared will fail to secure needed materials, delegate responsibilities, and chose a defensible location. But the first episode did show how a bit of cleverness can go a long way at times. I suggest all of those that can watch the show, do so. It may show us what not to do as well as give food for thought so far as our own survival plans. - Eric JWR Replies: While the show probably has some redeeming value, I have a few concerns from the very outset. (But keep in mind that thusfar I've only seen some brief previews and clips): 1.) The show depicts a small number of people surviving in a relatively resource-rich environment, in a simulation of the aftermath of a devastating pandemic. This is something akin to the movie I
Am Legend (a remake of the now very dated 1971 movie The
Omega Man 2.) The series puts a subtle stamp of approval on looting. They just give it more acceptable names, like "scavenging" and "foraging". This might be acceptable in a very low-likelihood mega-pandemic --something approaching an extinction level event. But is it is not acceptable in the far, far more likely situation where the majority of the population is intact, and title to deeded property is likewise intact. For the show's producers to depict the former, when the latter will actually be the case in 98%+ of real-world scenarios is collective brainwashing. 3.) The series will show a group of people in an essentially tactical situation, where their lives are frequently threatened by hostile outsiders. I will be surprised to see the key military principal of Unity of Command encouraged. As is typical for "reality" shows (such as Survivor), it is assumed that the members of the audience will develop "favorite" characters, because of similarities in background or temperament. Hence, the producers employ the artifices of equality of their initial tangible property, democracy, and communistically-shared property. They seem to have votes on everything. But in the real world, when disaster strikes and desperate people are seeking to to eat you, it is hardly the time to dawdle, debate, and take numerous votes on immediate courses of action. Rather, the odds are that in a real-world disaster situation that people will take refuge at either a private home, or in a public shelter. In a private home, it will probably be the land-owner that will call the shots, while at a public shelter, it will probably be a sworn law enforcement officer--most likely a sheriff--that will coordinate manning a defense. 4.) The show only depicts a 10 week time period. Hence the participants will be able to survive entirely off the largesse of the old world. But if the scenario were more realistic, they'd be part of a much larger population that would rapidly deplete the available food supplies. So it is likely that activities like gardening would begin with the first available growing season. (Of course, in southern California, the growing "season" is practically year-round. There, it is water availability that would be the key issue. In a grid-down collapse, sans electrically-pumped water, the region would rapidly revert to desert.) « Letter Re: A Multiple Family Retreat -- Lessons Learned The Hard Way |Main| Notes from JWR: » Thursday July 23 2009Three Letters Re: The Simple Reality of EMP -- Different Than You Might ExpectDear JWR, The transformers are the weak link. A severe solar storm can induce currents that will destroy them (this has happened). Safety interlocks may not work as the pulse can increase current too fast for the breaker to trip before the contacts get welded shut or else it can cause winding damage before it trips. As Andru says the extent of the damage will be the problem. None of the high tension step up/step down transformers are made in the US anymore. And the lead times for their manufacture are measured in years. I expect in such a scenario desperate measures will be taken to produce transformers (or repair them – very difficult and not possible if the damage is severe enough). If we suffer an EMP attack plan for the power being off for years. I would suspect that power recover would be prioritized in the major metropolitan areas as that is where most people and industry are. The rural areas will probably be the last to be worked. This is standard operating procedure (SOP) for power restoration, you do what brings the most people back online first. - James J. Mr. Rawles, I followed the link and read the article. For the most part it was very informative, especially the part about all modern airliners being "fly by wire" and controlled by computers. From my aviation background I know that the control surfaces of most large aircraft today are simply too large to be moved around by the pilot's own strength, as they were in aircraft designs up to the 1950s. Still, it was a graphic reminder that most large aircraft today are completely dependent on their on-board computer systems to operate. There is no "manual backup", just another spare computer system that could possibly also be damaged in an EMP incident. But there was one section of his article discussing advance preparations to mitigate the effect of an EMP blast that I did not understand. That was the paragraph:
I'm not quite sure what Mr. Forstchen is referring to with the term, "off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios"? If he is referring to the commonly available Family Radio Service (FRS) and General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS) walkie-talkies that use AA and AAA batteries, then he is not aware of their severe limitations. FRS radios only have 14 UHF channels and 0.5 watts of RF output power. The GMRS radios have 22 UHF channels and typically around 2 watts of RF output power. Both radios operate on relatively low power and on UHF frequencies, a combination that will limit their effective range to a few miles typically. At best perhaps 10-miles with the higher powered 2-watt GMRS radio (don't believe the advertising hype on the package). The UHF frequencies do a better job of penetrating building walls, but they don't propagate as far as VHF signals. They provide "Line of Sight" operation - if you can see the other person in the distance, you should be able to reach them on the radio. Based upon these obvious limitations, I don't understand where the author comes up with the statement that equipped with these consumer-grade walkie-talkies, "within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running." With their short range and limited channels, it is impossible to create a "nationwide network of communications". When used from inside a vehicle, the range of the low power FRS radio can be measured in feet! Usually the range is only a few car lengths, which makes for limited convoy use. In addition, the limited number of available radio channels will ensure a pandemonium of signals and the resulting radio gridlock reminiscent of the peak of CB radio activity in the late 1970s. This is especially true when you realize that every man, woman, and child could potentially be attempting to communicate on these same channels with their personally owned FRS or GMRS radio. The public service functions will no longer be operating on radio frequencies reserved and licensed exclusively for their use. If the author is referring to the purchase of additional two-way radios of the type already in use by police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response departments, then he is unaware of how they operate. Most "business band" or "professional" hand held radios have a RF output of 5-to7 watts. They are still limited in range by their inefficient "rubber duckie" flexible antenna, frequency band, and power output. The only reason they seem to operate so well over many miles of varied terrain is because of the supporting infrastructure, mainly the radio repeater system. The radio repeater extends the range of the low powered hand held radios by retransmitting their signal [typically] from a mountaintop repeater site. A network of repeater stations located on high terrain can vastly improve the coverage of a hand held radio, providing excellent range throughout a county or even an entire state depending on the size and extent of the repeater network. Unfortunately, the weak link in all of the radio systems used by public service agencies is their radio repeater system. With all the repeater stations off the air due to EMP damage (or even a lightning strike) the entire radio network falls apart. Most public service radios are programmed to operate exclusively through the repeater system. If the repeater system is down, the radios no longer work. Sometimes a sheriff's department will have their radios programmed with a "car-to-car" channel, which is a simplex frequency where the radios transmit & receive on the same frequency (without the need for a repeater radio). But these "direct" channels are very few, and are often the only simplex channel available out of a radio system with five or more radio channels. To provide adequate coverage over a large city or county, all the normally used channels are duplex frequencies going through the radio repeater system. An additional limitation is that each public service function is limited to their specific allocated and assigned radio channels. The radios are pre-programmed by a radio technician at his shop. The radios are not field programmable by the user. In addition to this vulnerability, professional two-way radios use rechargeable battery packs - usually Nickel-Cadmium or Nickel-Metal Hydride. The sealed battery packs are designed to work with a specific model of radio. The radios do not use AA, AAA, C, or D-cell batteries. So unless there is a back room filled with chargers and a person assigned to keep all the spare batteries charged up and rotated out of the charger at all times, there is no simple approach to having charged batteries ready to go to support a stash of spare radios. In fact, most public service agencies can barely afford the minimum number of portable radios needed to equip all their personnel. There is no budget for an additional stash of spare batteries and radios. The only radio service I know of that has the flexibility to adapt in a "repeater down" situation is the Amateur Radio Service. Instead of specific frequencies or channels, "Ham" radio operators are allocated entire radio bands to operate on. The VHF and UHF radios used in the Amateur Radio Service can be user programmed to operate on any desired frequency within a radio band, and all will switch to simplex operation at the press of a button. Manufacturers of ham radio equipment often offer an optional alkaline battery case for use with their hand held radio models. While looking like the typical Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd) battery pack from the outside, these battery cases can be opened up and AA batteries inserted into the slots. The battery case is then attached to the radio the same way as the regular NiCd battery packs do. This allows the ham radio operator to stockpile a stash of spare AA batteries for use during an extended power outage that prevents the usual recharging of the NiCd or Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery packs. So, unless you are a ham radio operator, expect a long delay before normal radio communications are restored. Due to the limitations and vulnerabilities of public service two-way radio networks, reestablishing a nationwide network of radio communications is going to take time. Sincerely, - Bruce C. James: Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse by Jerry Emanuelson: "Although nuclear EMP was known since the earliest days of nuclear weapons testing, the magnitude of the effects of nuclear EMP were not known until a 1962 test of a thermonuclear weapon in space called the Starfish Prime test. The Starfish Prime test knocked out some of the electrical and electronic components in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away. When the 1.44 megaton W49 thermonuclear warhead detonated at an altitude of 248.5 miles (399 km), it made no sound. There was a very brief and very bright white flash in the sky that witnesses described as being like a huge flashbulb going off in the sky. The flash could be easily seen even through the overcast sky at Kwajalein Island, about 2,000 km. to the west-southwest. In a phenomenon unrelated to the EMP, the radiation cloud from the Starfish Prime test subsequently destroyed at least five United States satellites and one Soviet satellite. The most well-known of the satellites was Telstar I, the world's first active communications satellite. Telstar I was launched the day after the Starfish Prime test, and it did make a dramatic demonstration of the value of active communication satellites with live trans-Atlantic television broadcasts before it orbited through radiation produced by Starfish Prime (and other subsequent nuclear tests in space). Telstar I was damaged by the radiation cloud, and failed completely a few months later. EMP is a potentially massive, severe problem that can essentially devastate our nation. America as we know it can not survive even a moderate EMP attack. Society will collapse. The EMP pulse flows through the air at the speed of light until it hits antennas, power lines, cabling, etc. then the pulse flows through this cabling at the speed of light into the electronic equipment and the electronics fail. [Here is a roughly analogous event that is illustrative:] Our television cable system was struck by lighting and all electronics that were on and all electronics that were off and that were connected to the TV cable were fried. Similarly, EMP will fry any unprotected electronics. The only way to protect your electronics is to have the equipment inside an adequately grounded Faraday cage (metal box) that does not have power or cabling running into it. Your electronics that are not in use should be stored in a grounded Faraday cage everyday. Even if repair parts for your electronics were available, how would you obtain the repair parts since there will be no mail or transportation services. If you have an auto that still runs after and EMP attack, the last thing that you will wish to do is take your vehicle out and show everyone that you have an operating vehicle. We are acquiring extra [CPU] "brains" for our diesels and SUVs. We also are acquiring carbureted vehicles. Even if an EMP strike only caused the death of 10% or our population (30 million citizens) just how do you survive this as a nation? Prepare for EMP and pray that it does not happen. Analysis: 1. Swine Flu – World Wide – Population loss 1 to 10% – could trigger Item Number 3. 2. Civil War – America – Population loss of up to 40% – could trigger Item Number 3. 3. Financial Collapse – World Wide – Population loss up to 40%. Loss of 50+ years of progress. Will probably lead to nuclear war or EMP strike. No economy remains. 4. EMP Attack – America – Population loss of up to 80% - No economy remains. 5. Nuclear War – World Wide – Population loss up to 60%. No economy remains. Regards, - TD « Economics and Investing: |Main| Often-Overlooked Readiness: Preparing for Joy, by Carla » Wednesday July 22 2009Six Letters Re: Self-Sufficiency in England? Take the GapHello Mr. Rawles, Sir, Your forecast for the probable scenario post-TEOTWAWKI, or even mini-TEOTWAWKI seems pretty accurate, although the population figure you give [for England] is out-of-date. As of mid-2007 we were at almost 61,000,000 and counting. Soon to be standing room only, it seems. [JWR Adds: Just to clarify, the population of all of the UK was 61 million in 2007. Wikipedia says 51 million is the correct figure for just England.] So I was right with the 51 million figure. The only good news is that if you consider Scotland, the population density for the entirety of the UK is much lower. Not that Scotland has the most agreeable climate. I'll update that letter accordingly. Despite living in as near to the middle of nowhere as is possible in these crowded isles, my family and I have been planning our G.O.O.D. from the UK for some time. I’m happy to say that the new place [in the Mediterranean region] is now up and running and we are spending 50% of our time there, (soon to be 100%). Some things we learned during our relocation exercise: · It seems, if the television programmes on the subject are to be believed, that some people, after a two-week trip to some exotic location, decide on the spur of the moment to move there – and do just that. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that falls under the ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’ caveat, aka the ‘P7’ rule. Please, please, please, think it through and do your research. · Where ever you may roam, you take yourself there. Sit yourselves down and think deeply about what you want to do, where you want to go, what you want when you get there, and what you will need to make it happen. If you are running away from something, don’t be surprised if you find it at the end of your journey, sat waiting for you. Running towards something on the other hand.. · I cannot stress this enough: Do your homework. This applies if you are relocating to the next county or the other side of the world. Do not be seduced by picturesque views and/or sales talk. One of the nicest locations we saw on a previous move has appeared on national (UK) television many times; sadly, due to its propensity to flooding several times a year. Fortunately we had looked into it and bought higher ground, elsewhere. The Internet is your friend here, but does not remove the need for feet on the ground and genuine field research. · Once you’ve identified your chosen location, do yet more research and find the right spot. I will not preach to the choir about the need for fertile soil, water, politics, etc, but would say, as we found to our cost, that sometimes people can be mistaken in their beliefs, if not downright economical with the truth. Check your information, then check it again. It cost us in the region of 5,000 Euros and counting for failing to check an item. · Allow a realistic timescale for your move. Our (hopefully) ultimate G.O.O.D. exercise involved a change of country, for which we had allowed five years to achieve. It’s going on seven now and whilst installed, we are still commuting internationally and hoping not to get caught up in the Swine Flu snafu whilst in transit. It’s not all been bad news though, the delay has allowed time to improve language skills and inventory, and my good lady has developed a fearsomely accurate eye with her new Benelli. (Sadly, Messrs. Mossberg & Remington are hard to come by out at our location, but the Italian job is a nice, if expensive alternative). It is also pleasing to know that ownership of same does not make one automatically suspect in the eyes of the law or the local politically correct set (whom, I am glad to report, have not found their way here yet). · Be aware, be very aware that even a short move can result in you finding yourself in a much different culture. This is as true of village/small-town life as it is if you change countries. Be prepared for things being done differently. Many countries prefer the mañana philosophy to the Protestant Work Ethic and this can be incredibly frustrating for some. I personally know of several wannabe ‘GOODers’ who have given up in sight of the finish line due to their inability or unwillingness to adapt to local conditions. If you cannot or will not adapt, then please, stay where you are. (I appreciate this sentiment doesn’t generally apply to ‘our type’ of folk, but if you prefer to be dreamer, save yourself a lot of hassle and money, just don’t..). Similarly, many of these out of the way locations reputedly use the ‘small brown envelope’ method of getting things done. I cannot of course possibly comment on this, but YMMV. · Render unto Caesar.. This probably should go under the ‘culture’ paragraph, but I think it’s worthy of its own piece. You might not fully understand local bureaucracy – indeed if in a foreign country, with a different language, you probably never will, but it is no excuse in the eyes of the law. If nothing else, find out how, when and where to pay your taxes – and make sure you do. I am told the impound lot for our location is literally full to overflowing with foreign vehicles because owners neglected to pay local taxes on them. (And this is a small, rural location). Remember, the nail that stands out gets hammered down and one presumes under the current financial conditions that this can only get worse. It’s bad enough to lose your pick-up, but your home? So far, the move has proven the right thing to do. We are totally off-grid and re-learning the joys of septics, generators and, until the well is bored, tanked water. High on the list is a solar PV set up. We could have held off moving till this was installed, but decided that being there was the number one priority. Given the climate, electricity is not a priority here in the summer, except perhaps for ice and the winters are typically much milder than the UK, so we feel our genset will more than suffice for the time being. Getting used to the new way of life is fun and challenging at the same time. One thing we have found, is that working full-time in the summer sun of the southern Mediterranean is very different than sitting on a sunbed sipping a beer! Perhaps the man who invented the siesta was not so crazy after all. In conclusion, if you do decide to take the gap, be aware that it’s not something to do lightly, but it can be done and is more than worth the effort. - Michael Jim,
Hello From Ireland, Things in England might be bad but here in Ireland things are worse. The economy is in tatters, taxes are being raised, people are advised to avoid getting pregnant because of swine flu. There are talks of keeping schools closed after the summer holidays to avoid the spread of the swine flu so that a vaccine program can be administered, even though we all know there isn't a vaccine available yet. The The population density is 180/sq mile, knife and gun laws are unbelievable ( I have been waiting six months for a license for a .22 rifle even though I have no criminal record and served three years in the Reserve Defence Force performing security details several times at a major airport with a weapon loaded with live ammunition) sad to say it is possible to get a gun illegally within 24 hours. Pistols are now illegal, because the drug gangs were shooting each other with pistols, despite the fact that no one was ever killed with a legally held pistol. The gang crime here is at level comparable to what was seen in [cities in] the USA in the 1970s. Our Police are retiring at a rate of 45 per month (the maximum size of the force was 12,000) and because of the recession they are not being replaced with recruits, and best of all a Government report advises the closure of half of the country's Police Stations. My American Wife and myself (Irish) are making plans to get the hell out of Dodge we are looking at Northern Scandinavia as the best option for a place to escape before it all goes very bad here. There are several other Irish people who think the same as ourselves and are making their own escape plans. We would welcome your comments on our choice of location. - INNUKSUK Survival, County Limerick, Ireland. Jim, The benefits are, from my various sorties to study the region: 1. One of lowest population densities in western Europe. 2. Both distance (by UK standards!) and formidable mountainous barriers between the region and the large urban centers of Glasgow, Edinburgh and the east coast. Its isolation reduces its allure as a target for roaming urbanite gangs, a point even more applicable to the likes of [The Isle of] Skye which, during the days of the conflicts between the Lords of the Isles and the Stewarts, was so shielded by the Highlands wilderness that the king had to send his fleet from the east coast around the north of Scotland to attack them by sea. Even on the Great Britain mainland, the Knoydart region has no road access from the rest of Scotland; it can only be reached by 2 day hike or by sea. Something to bear in mind in a modern grid down scenario. 3. A largely conservative indigenous population, quietly distrustful of modern ways. 4. There are numerous small semi self-reliant communities dotted throughout the region, many of which are used to taking in idealist outsiders seeking refuge from the madding crowds. 5. Whereas the interior of the Highlands can have very severe winters with prolonged periods of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, the lower portions of the west coast are relieved by mild Atlantic currents providing a lenient maritime microclimate. 6. A hunting and outdoors culture. There are so many red deer in the region now that some locals are calling for the wolf to be reintroduced to reduce their numbers. On the down side: 1. Isolation comes at a price; in good weather, it can take the best part of two hours to get to Inverness or Fort William from the west coast or [from the Isle of] Skye. In winter, you may have to wait longer until a storm ends or a snow plow comes along. Bad news if you need urgent medical treatment which, for now, can be circumvented by emergency helicopter missions undertaken by the military. 2. Strict Reformed Christians, who are considerable in number in the region, frown upon many activities that outsiders take for granted; for instance, their observance of the Sunday Sabbath in some cases compels them to pull a chair from the table rather than push it away, as the former mode is seen as less like work than the latter. So digging your garden or hanging clothes on a line on a Sunday would be a good way to alienate them. On the other hand, their lax attitude towards alcohol consumption will surprise teetotaling Christians from outside. 3. There is an undercurrent of lingering resentment towards the English who are still blamed for the infamous Highland Clearances. There is perhaps an outside chance of the odd Englishman becoming the local "expendable gringo" come TEOTWAWKI. 4. The quality of the soil is generally not great, although it is nonetheless possible with assistance from compost to grow a considerable amount of vegetables. Sturdy stock fencing is a must, due to the deer menace. Also, I am told that eagles account for high losses in spring lambs. 5. Self sufficient farming comes under a lot of petty scrutiny from over eager bureaucrats; for instance, it is illegal to help someone else butcher livestock on their holding; you can only do it to your own cattle on your own land. 6. And of course, like the rest of the UK, gun ownership is insanely regulated. 7. Scottish law and conveyancing practices are alien to those in the rest of the UK. Also, property prices tend to be very high, as are property taxes. I know someone who left the Highland to live in France because he couldn't bear the property taxes. 8. Summertime sees the area swamped with hillwalkers and tourists from all over Europe, many of whom are drawn to the quaint coastal communities and who may note ongoing self-sufficiency preparations for later reference. Overall then, it's very far from perfect but nevertheless presents perhaps an emergency, last minute kind of option for those who don't think they have the wherewithal to make a bigger jump. Finally, [for an illustration of the high population density,] see the photos of Europe from space at night. Kind regards, - Jay W.
Mr. Rawles, JWR Replies: Your town might be the exception to the rule. One key question: How many miles from a major city is your town, and is it on a major highway? Or is it "off the beaten track" , away from refugee lines of drift? That could make a crucial difference in whether or not your town would be overwhelmed by refugees in a societal collapse. Another consideration is counting the roads into the town. If you are fortunate, the geography will be favorable, limiting the avenues of approach. But in open farming country, there are usually numerous access roads. In a worst case scenario, how many roadblocks would have to be manned? Think through the number of defenders that would be required to maintain 24/7/360 security. I only mentioned "...or perhaps Belize" for folks that already have friends or relatives that live there, and that you preferably already speak Spanish. Granted, you'd be considered an outsider, but Belize still has a very class-conscious society. Because of this, land owners--regardless of their origin--are generally held in esteem. I'd be more worried about criminals crossing the porous border with Guatemala, than about your next door neighbors. « A Multiple Family Retreat -- Lessons Learned The Hard Way |Main| Note from JWR: » Tuesday July 21 2009The Simple Reality of EMP -- Different Than You Might Expect, by Andru
One topic I have paid close attention to for the past 10 years has been our nation’s risk to Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP). There are a few points I would like to make that are often overlooked—mostly dealing with the magnitude of the threat. I don’t claim to be an expert on the subject, but I have consumed as much information as possible that doesn’t delve into the high-level physics—the kind of knowledge required to truly be an expert. What may set me apart the most is the simple fact that I actually read the 181 page Critical National Infrastructures (CNI) Report released in April of 2008 and in my opinion, it has shed more light on the subject of EMP effects than any other research conducted since EMPs were first discovered more than 60 years ago. Had this information been available a few years earlier to authors like William R. Forstchen in his novel One Second After would have likely painted a different picture of the effects of an EMP and how it would impact a society. His lessons are still valid, but a little more accurate information can have a huge impact on our preparation decisions. Anatomy of an EMP: An EMP is actually created when gamma particles from a nuclear explosion interact with the earth’s atmosphere at a sufficient altitude to cause a uniform disturbance in the earth’s magnetic field. It is the fluctuations of the earth’s magnetic field that causes the EMP and not the nuclear explosion itself. If the detonation occurs within the earth atmosphere, the gamma particles are absorbed by the air before creating a significant enough fluctuation in the earth’s magnetic field. Generally speaking, a detonation within the earth’s atmosphere will not produce a significant EMP beyond the actual radius of the nuclear blast. In other words, the radiation will kill you before the EMP fries your I-pod. To be most effective, the detonation needs to be outside the earth’s atmosphere—even higher than the International Space Station and many satellites. This allows the gamma rays to interact with the earth’s atmosphere (and magnetic field) over a broad area at roughly the exact same time. We could spend time discussing the three different types of EMPs generated by a nuclear detonation (E1, E2, & E3), but suffice it to say that E1 tends to quickly damage sensitive electronics, E2 is slower and not so much of a threat with modern fuses and surge protectors, and E3 is slow but massive and turns the earth’s magnetic field and any long continuous conductors (long-distance power lines) into a huge electrical generator—overpowering surge protection and destroying connected transformer equipment on either end of the line. Individuals tend to be concerned with the E1 pulse and infrastructure professionals tend to be concerned with the E3 pulse. Consumer Technology Risks: According to the CNI Report, modern automobiles are not nearly as susceptible to EMP as previously thought. It seems that while equipment and circuitry has become more sensitive, manufacturers have also beefed up the shielding on these components to reduce electromagnetic interference from non-EMP sources thus reducing susceptibility to an actual EMP. According to the report, only 10% of the vehicles on the road will stop functioning even temporarily after an EMP and one third of all vehicles won’t even suffer any nuisance failures such as a blown fuse or damaged radio (pg. 115 of the report). The risk here is still significant, but mostly overstated when compared to other risks. For instance, we’ve all seen what one accident does to rush-hour traffic. Now imagine 10% of the cars on the road shutting down at the same time—accidents would result and gridlock would be intense on the major highways—stranding even those with operable vehicles. But if your car was parked at work at the time of an EMP, chances are you would be able to start your car and at least attempt to drive home. What are the Real Risks: The other significant threat posed by EMP lies in a commonly used automated control system called supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA). In essence, SCADA systems are similar your typical computer except that they are designed for specific uses—such as monitoring and controlling our electric grid, telecommunications infrastructure, oil and gas transmission lines, and even our water treatment plants. Under the testing conducted by the EMP Commission, every SCADA system failed to one degree or another (see report pg. 6). While some failures might be as simple to fix as rebooting, others would permanently disable a particular control unit. Taken together at the exact same time, this combination of minor and major failures becomes catastrophic to whatever infrastructure these SCADA units control. The Reality of a Post-EMP Attack: First of all, the lights will likely go out; and for most of the grid they will stay out for a long time. However, most of the cars we drive will keep working with minor electrical problems. Most gas-powered generators will start up, and as long as the back-up power supply holds out, we might even have land-line and perhaps even cell phone telecommunications. If service stations have back-up power generation, then gas will still be pumping (plan on paying with cash though) until the tanks run dry. A national priority will be getting the gasoline distribution lines back up and running and with back-up power at key points, this could be accomplished in a matter of weeks or months. If we can get the gasoline flowing, then harvesting equipment will work, the food supply will begin flowing again, and crews will be able to repair the electrical grid. Don’t get me wrong, an EMP attack would be catastrophic and would probably be the worst attack ever to affect our nation. Millions would die as a result, but I don’t expect it to be the end-game that some make it out to be. It should be entirely survivable for a well-informed and well-prepared groups and individuals. Lessons for Preppers:
When it’s all said and done, we need to accurately understand the threats we are preparing for in order to make wise decisions regarding our limited resources. An EMP would be catastrophic for sure; but the reality of life “post-EMP” is likely to be much different than the most-common pictures being painted these days. Do your own due diligence, research the risks and how they affect you specifically, and you will be much better off than just taking the arm-chair advice of even the loudest prognosticators—this author included. « Letter Re: Propane Tank Refilling Options |Main| Self-Sufficiency in England? Take the Gap » Monday July 20 2009Letter Re: Some Details on the High Altitude EMP Threat
Mr. Rawles, Please consider the following statement with your readers. I believe that an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack by satellite can happen to the U.S. without any notice at all, and many nations already have the satellites in order to produce the end result. This is not meant to scare, but just an observation on how our great country can be taken back to the 1800s technology and a Third World country economic level, in a microsecond. Please consider my train of thought on this line of reasoning which I send you. I think you "have" to agree that this method is so, so simple. I just didn't realize how many satellites were orbiting the earth at 200 miles up and from so many different nations until today. Another question to ask oneself: Does another country hate the U.S. to the extent to want to destroy us? Yes, several nations. Can EMP be delivered by [a nuclear weapon onboard] an already existing and orbiting satellite to devastate our economy? The answer is yes. We’re on borrowed time, preppers. For a comprehensive assessment of likely damages to electronics equipment and electrical infrastructure, see the 2008 Critical National Infrastructures Report written by the EMP Commission of the Federal government. At first thought, it might seem far-fetched to imagine a single bomb wiping out the entire country. But it wouldn’t be the power of the explosion, per se, that would cause the problem. Instead, the real problem would be the EMP generated by the explosion. Traveling at the speed of light, the EMP would act like an enormous ripple in the earth’s electromagnetic field. As that ripple hits electrical systems, it would get coupled and be way beyond anything hat a typical circuit breaker could handle. William R. Forstchen, the author of the popular novel One
Second After in an article titled "EMP 101" A Basic Primer & Suggestions for Preparedness writes of high altitude EMP: “This energy surge will destroy all delicate electronics in your home, even as it destroys all the major components all the way back to the power company’s generators and the phone company’s main relays,” Forstchen writes. “In far less than a millisecond, the entire power grid of the United States, and all that it supports will be destroyed.” And if the power grid goes, then everything goes. In July 1962, a 1.44 megaton United States nuclear test in space, 400 km (250 miles) above the Pacific Ocean, called the Starfish Prime test, demonstrated to nuclear scientists that the magnitude and effects of a high altitude nuclear explosion were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) article stated that an EMP "can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. A large device detonated at 400–500 km (250 to 312 miles) over Kansas would affect all of the continental U.S. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point. Earth is ensnared today in a thick spider web of satellite orbits. Satellites with different assignments fly at different orbital altitudes. Russian and American navigation satellites orbit from 100 to 300 miles altitude. Civilian photography satellites, such as the American Landsat and the French SPOT, orbit at altitudes ranging from 300 to 600 miles. American NOAA and Russian Meteor weather satellites are at these same altitudes. JWR Replies: Iran and North Korea are currently developing fission bombs, not fusion (hydrogen) bombs. A large fission bomb would produce an order of magnitude less EMP than a typical fusion bomb. High Altitude (space-based) EMP with a hydrogen bomb is presently a capability of only a handful of nation states. China is the biggest threat, in my opinion. As for fusion bombs concealed inside satellites, that is conceivable, notwithstanding the Space-Based weapons treaty. (The US and the former Soviet Union were signatories, but China was not.) In my opinion, of far greater concern is EMP from a nuclear bomb on-board an aircraft. Assuming detonation at a high altitude, detonated suicidally, inside the aircraft, rather than being dropped) that would provide a broad line of sight (LOS) for EMP to provide a "footprint" radius of perhaps more than 200 miles, and far beyond line of sight (BLOS) indirect EMP coupling (via power lines and telephone cables) to a much larger radius. I first discussed LOS calculation for EMP in SurvivalBlog back in October of 2005, and I wrote the following more detailed piece in April 2007. Since it is relevant, I'll post it here again:
There may be other high altitude delivery methods that I haven't considered, that would provide a broader LOS. But at least the hydrogen bomb club appears fairly small, so there is less risk of widespread EMP . It is conceivable that a Russian fusion bomb might have fallen into terrorist hands during the chaotic 1990s, but if one had, then it probably would have been used by now. Thus, at present, the terrorist and rogue state threat is just for fission bombs, which makes the EMP threat much smaller and more localized. « Two Letters Re: Savings and Self-Sufficiency with Homemade Laundry Detergent |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Sunday July 19 2009Oh, Henry! Worried About TEOTWAWKI?
A recent news headline in the English newspaper The Independent caught my eye: Paulson reveals US concerns of breakdown in law and order. I only rarely post entire newspaper articles. But this article is particularly significant to the SurvivalBlog readership, and since it is brief, I'm posting it in full:
(Special thanks to the publishers of The Independent.) Hmm... This is certainly food for thought and grounds for further research. It notable to see the difference between public statements and what actually goes on behind closed doors. Compare the foregoing testimony with these excerpts from Paulson's widely-circulated press release on October 14, 2008:
By December of 2008 Paulson was browbeating Bank of America's CEO Ken Lewis into a shotgun wedding with Merrill Lynch. Paulson now claims he did so, in part, because he was worried about a banking meltdown and the possibility of what we would call TEOTWAWKI. Perhaps he was reading too much SurvivalBlog, or someone gave him a copy of my novel and he was losing sleep over it. What is to be learned from all this? Here is Rawles Axiom #1 on Political Awareness: Don't trust or even pay much attention to what public officials say. Instead, concentrate on what they do, and more importantly on the subsequent results and consequences of what they do. Words don't mean much to politicians. They all too frequently tailor their words to match their particular audience, with little regard to honesty or forthrightness. If you think that I've over-reacted to the preceding cited quotes, take a moment to consider that this is the same Henry Paulson that had publicly declared just a few months before (on March 16, 2008): "I've got great confidence in our financial market, our financial institutions. Our markets are resilient and flexible. Our institutions, our investment banks are strong," « Letter Re: GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival |Main| Notes from JWR: » Friday July 17 2009Three Rules for Living Through the Second Depression, by Chaz Valenza
I believe we are on the precipice of the Second Depression. Though President Obama is working valiantly to turn the country’s financial ship, it appears to me that the lack of a genuine JWR Adds: Before you send me a Nastygram about Mr. Valenza's article, please re-read my introductory note, above. « Letter Re: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Monday July 13 2009H1N1 Influenza: A Cytokine Storm Conclusion, But Still More Questions Than Answers
The good news on H1N1 (commonly called Swine Flu) is that in current strains the death rate appears to be as low as 1 in 2,000 infections, at least in First World countries with modern hospital facilities. The bad news is that at least 60% of world's population is expect to contract the bug, and that further mutations are probable. The Mutation Question Mutations to less virulent strains are the historic norm for viruses but there is the risk of one that is very deadly. (To explain: in the grand scheme of things, a mutation with high lethality is is not good for a virus. Some, like Marburg and Ebola, have had strains that were so deadly that the hosts didn't live long enough to pass it along to a large number of new carriers. The most successful viruses are the ones that propagate well, but do not kill too many of their hosts.) We can surmise that the absolute "worst case" for H1N1 is that a much more lethal strain emerges, to be followed by a global infection, and a large-scale die-off. But again, that is the less likely outcome. The Cytokine Storm Question Up until recently, I agreed with SurvivalBlog reader "L. Jean" in England who in an e-mail last week noted that we were "still waiting to find out if it's a cytokine storm that kills or not." This is a determining factor whether young, healthy folks should try to boost their immune response, or whether that might make matters worse. Based on the latest literature, I believe that it is now safe to say that with H1N1 a cytokine over-reaction is indeed a substantial risk, and could be a bigger killer than the virus itself. So my updated advice is to continue to store immunity boosters, but not use them to treat H1N1 unless you are Imuno-suppressed. Otherwise healthy patients in ages between 18 and 50 should refrain from doing so. I have updated my article on influenza pandemics, accordingly. The Immunization Question There is a vaccine for H1N1 in development, but it has been put on a radically fast track for development and trials. This has raised concerns about contamination and efficacy. Since the strain chosen for the immunization is both a "snapshot" and a "best guess" about what strain will be circulating next winter in the northern hemisphere, and there will only be limited animal testing to rule out pathogenicity. So there are some critics that argue that the vaccine might pose more of risk than the flu itself. It is also noteworthy that the vaccination program will require multiple injections for each patient. In my opinion, it is not yet clear whether the risks will outweigh the benefits. For some of my readers this won't be a matter of choice. Both Canada and the UK have announced their intent to implement universal inoculation programs. The Madagascar Question In the well-known computer game Pandemic II, the president of the island nation of Madagascar is quick to isolate the country to prevent the advent of a pandemic. This has become a standing joke among gamers, and the term "Madagascar" has migrated into the epidemiology community. "Going Madagascar" is essentially slamming the doors shut, in the hopes of avoiding infection. (BTW, I know of at least two survival retreat groups that use "Madagascar" as their activation codeword, a-la the novel Alas, Babylon « France in 1940 as a Parallel to a Modern-Day Golden Horde on the Highways |Main| Note from JWR: » Monday June 29 2009Ug-99 and The Ugly Times Ahead--There'll Be Fungus Among Us
My consulting clients often ask me me for predictions. "What's your timeframe, Mister Rawles?" I hear that in almost every consulting call. My clients ask: "When will the US economy crater?" I tell them that is impossible to predict, because there are so many variables and interdependencies, and because the markets are so heavily manipulated. They also ask me: Is the H1N1 Flu sure to mutate in to a more virulent strain, and if so, when?" I answer: "That is impossible to predict." I'm also often quizzed about the Ug-99 wheat fungus (aka "Durable Wheat Rust", or simply "the stem rust"). Clearly, it is advancing , but without a specific timeframe. Scientists are now calling the advance of Ug-99 around the globe "inevitable". My greatest fear is that instead of just being spread gradually by the wind, the stem rust will make "leaps", via the cargo holds of ships, and hence end up in the world's "bread baskets": Australia, the Ukraine, the US, and Canada. In the long run, containment is seen as almost impossible. Thusfar, attempts to create a rust-resistant wheat variety have been thwarted by the rust's rapid mutation rate. Let's look at some numbers: 20% of the calories consumed by the human population of our planet currently comes from wheat. That means that there will likely be a caloric shortfall for a number of years--until either wheat fields are re-planted in some different crop, or until a viable rust-resistant wheat variety is developed. I encourage readers to study the Ug-99 threat, and think through its implications on a macro (global) scale. Then think through the implications of a wheat famine at a personal level. Where will you and your family get your daily bread? Have you stored up for seven lean years? I cannot more strongly urge SurvivalBlog readers: Get your food storage squared away, immediately. Supplies are plentiful now, and prices are still reasonable. But the threats that we are facing are numerous, large, and all too likely. And, of these, UG-99 is almost a certainty in the next decade, and it will directly affect the global food supply. Stop dawdling and get ready. You owe it to your family to do the best that you can to prepare. In a recent exchange of correspondence abut Ug-99 with reader Jim M., he wrote: "I think stored food should be viewed more as a supplement, especially wheat in view of UG-99. Alternative sources of complex carbohydrates should be sought by preppers. Other grain seed should be planted and replenished by those with land and climate to do so: oats, barley, rye, spelt, millet, maize, quinoa. A few thousand square feet of each suitable grain type would provide continuous seed viability as well as training for larger-scale crops and harvests in the future. Starchy tubers could also figure greatly in extending long-term food stores. Anyone with even a sunny balcony should be able to grow their own potatoes for instance and there are plenty of other tubers they can try." Preparedness is keyed to trends and to the emergence of general threats, not specific dates. It has not been since Y2K that we've had specific date target. And that was clearly an exception to the general rule. Perhaps we'll someday read about a large asteroid with a predicted earth-crossing orbit (like Apophis), and have a multi-year countdown to disaster. But otherwise,we just have to be ready at all times for a variety of potential situations. « Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation |Main| France in 1940 as a Parallel to a Modern-Day Golden Horde on the Highways » Letter Re: An Upcoming Retreat Purchase -- Sell Gold or Take a Mortgage?
Jim, In looking to make an offer we wanted your advice regarding financing the purchase. Would you recommend selling gold reserves, home equity line of credit (HELOC) on debt-free primary residence, seller financing to the extent available or institutional financing? Why and/or why not for each? Thank you so much for all you are doing. You are providing an extremely valuable and much appreciated service. - Ken I. JWR Replies: I can understand the temptation to to hang on to your gold and take a mortgage, but to be conservative and low-risk, my advice is to be debt free. We will probably experience another year or two of deflation before inflation re-emerges. Avoid debt in deflationary times! Mortgage debt is a killer when layoffs occur in droves. So go ahead and sell your gold. But, if possible, wait for a short-term rally. « Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation |Main| Note from JWR: » Sunday June 28 2009Security at Places of Worship: More Than a Matter of Faith, by Scott Stewart and Fred BurtonIn recent months, several high-profile incidents have raised awareness of the threat posed by individuals and small groups operating under the principles of leaderless resistance. These incidents have included lone wolf attacks against a doctor who performed abortions in Kansas, an armed forces recruitment center in Arkansas and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C. Additionally, a grassroots jihadist cell was arrested for attempting to bomb Jewish targets in the Bronx and planning to shoot down a military aircraft at an Air National Guard base in Newburgh, N.Y. In addition to pointing out the threat posed by grassroots cells and lone wolf operatives, another common factor in all of these incidents is the threat of violence to houses of worship. The cell arrested in New York left what they thought to be active improvised explosive devices outside the Riverdale Temple and the Riverdale Jewish Community Center. Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in the lobby of the Reformation Lutheran Church in Wichita. Although Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad conducted his attacks against a Little Rock recruiting center, he had conducted preoperational surveillance and research on targets that included Jewish organizations and a Baptist church in places as far away as Atlanta and Philadelphia. And while James von Brunn attacked the Holocaust Museum, he had a list of other potential targets in his vehicle that included the National Cathedral. In light of this common thread, it might be instructive to take a more detailed look at the issue of providing security for places of worship. Until there is awareness of the threat, little can be done to counter it. In many parts of the world, such as Iraq, India and Pakistan, attacks against places of worship occur fairly frequently. It is not difficult for religious leaders and members of their congregations in such places to be acutely aware of the dangers facing them and to have measures already in place to deal with those perils. This is not always the case in the United States, however, where many people tend to have an “it can’t happen here” mindset, believing that violence in or directed against places of worship is something that happens only to other people elsewhere. This mindset is particularly pervasive among predominantly white American Protestant and Roman Catholic congregations. Jews, Mormons, Muslims and black Christians, and others who have been targeted by violence in the past, tend to be far more aware of the threat and are far more likely to have security plans and measures in place to counter it. The Jewish community has very well-developed and professional organizations such as the Secure Community Network (SCN) and the Anti-Defamation League that are dedicated to monitoring threats and providing education about the threats and advice regarding security. The Council on American-Islamic Relations has taken on a similar role for the Muslim community and has produced a “Muslim community safety kit” for local mosques. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) also has a very organized and well-connected security department that provides information and security advice and assistance to LDS congregations worldwide. There are no functional equivalents to the SCN or the LDS security departments in the larger Catholic, evangelical Protestant and mainline Protestant communities, though there are some organizations such as the recently established Christian Security Network that have been attempting to fill the void. Following an incident, awareness of the threat seems to rise for a time, and some houses of worship will put some security measures in place, but for the most part such incidents are seen as events that take place elsewhere, and the security measures are abandoned after a short time. Permanent security measures are usually not put in place until there has been an incident of some sort at a specific house of worship, and while the triggering incident is sometimes something that merely provides a good scare, other times it is a violent action that results in tragedy. Even when no one is hurt in the incident, the emotional damage caused to a community by an act of vandalism or arson at a house of worship can be devastating. It is important to note here that not all threats to places of worship will emanate from external actors. In the midst of any given religious congregation, there are, by percentages, people suffering from serious mental illnesses, people engaged in bitter child-custody disputes, domestic violence situations and messy divorces. Internal disputes in the congregation can also lead to feuds and violence. Any of these situations can (and have) led to acts of violence inside houses of worship. An effective security program is more than just having physical security measures in place. Like any man-made constructs, physical security measures — closed-circuit television (CCTV), alarms, cipher locks and so forth — have finite utility. They serve a valuable purpose in institutional security programs, but an effective security program cannot be limited to these things. Devices cannot think or evaluate. They are static and can be observed, learned and even fooled. Also, because some systems frequently produce false alarms, warnings in real danger situations may be brushed aside. Given these shortcomings, it is quite possible for anyone planning an act of violence to map out, quantify and then defeat or bypass physical security devices. However, elaborate planning is not always necessary. Consider the common scenario of a heavy metal door with very good locks that is propped open with a trashcan or a door wedge. In such a scenario, an otherwise “secure” door is defeated by an internal security lapse. However, even in situations where there is a high degree of threat awareness, there is a tendency to place too much trust in physical security measures, which can become a kind of crutch — and, ironically, an obstacle to effective security. In fact, to be effective, physical security devices always require human interaction. An alarm is useless if no one responds to it, or if it is not turned on; a lock is ineffective if it is not engaged. CCTV cameras are used extensively in corporate office buildings and some houses of worship, but any competent security manager will tell you that, in reality, they are far more useful in terms of investigating a theft or act of violence after the fact than in preventing one (although physical security devices can sometimes cause an attacker to divert to an easier target). No matter what kinds of physical security measures may be in place at a facility, they are far less likely to be effective if a potential assailant feels free to conduct preoperational surveillance, and is free to observe and map those physical security measures. The more at ease someone feels as they set about identifying and quantifying the physical security systems and procedures in place, the higher the odds they will find ways to beat the system. A truly “hard” target is one that couples physical security measures with an aggressive, alert attitude and sense of awareness. An effective security program is proactive — looking outward to where most real threats are lurking — rather than inward, where the only choice is to react once an attack has begun to unfold. We refer to this process of proactively looking for threats as protective intelligence. The human interaction required to make physical security measures effective, and to transform a security program into a proactive protective intelligence program, can come in the form of designated security personnel. In fact, many large houses of worship do utilize off-duty police officers, private security guards, volunteer security guards or even a dedicated security staff to provide this coverage. In smaller congregations, security personnel can be members of the congregation who have been provided some level of training. However, even in cases where there are specially designated security personnel, such officers have only so many eyes and can only be in a limited number of places at any one time. Thus, proactive security programs should also work to foster a broad sense of security awareness among the members of the congregation and community, and use them as additional resources. Unfortunately, in many cases, there is often a sense in the religious community that security is bad for the image of a particular institution, or that it will somehow scare people away from houses of worship. Because of this, security measures, if employed, are often hidden or concealed from the congregation. In such cases, security managers are deprived of many sets of eyes and ears. Certainly, there may be certain facets of a security plan that not everyone in the congregation needs to know about, but in general, an educated and aware congregation and community can be a very valuable security asset. In order for a congregation to maintain a sense of heightened awareness it must learn how to effectively do that. This training should not leave people scared or paranoid — just more observant. People need to be trained to look for individuals who are out of place, which can be somewhat counterintuitive. By nature, houses of worship are open to outsiders and seek to welcome strangers. They frequently have a steady turnover of new faces. This causes many to believe that, in houses of worship, there is a natural antagonism between security and openness, but this does not have to be the case. A house of worship can have both a steady stream of visitors and good security, especially if that security is based upon situational awareness. At its heart, situational awareness is about studying people, and such scrutiny will allow an observer to pick up on demeanor mistakes that might indicate someone is conducting surveillance. Practicing awareness and paying attention to the people approaching or inside a house of worship can also open up a whole new world of ministry opportunities, as people “tune in” to others and begin to perceive things they would otherwise miss if they were self-absorbed or simply not paying attention. In other words, practicing situational awareness provides an excellent opportunity for the members of a congregation to focus on the needs and burdens of other people. It is important to remember that every attack cycle follows the same general steps. All criminals — whether they are stalkers, thieves, lone wolves or terrorist groups — engage in preoperational surveillance (sometimes called “casing,” in the criminal lexicon). Perhaps the most crucial point to be made about preoperational surveillance is that it is the phase when someone with hostile intentions is most apt to be detected — and the point in the attack cycle when potential violence can be most easily disrupted or prevented. The second most critical point to emphasize about surveillance is that most criminals are not that good at it. They often have terrible surveillance tradecraft and are frequently very obvious. Most often, the only reason they succeed in conducting surveillance without being detected is because nobody is looking for them. Because of this, even ordinary people, if properly instructed, can note surveillance activity. It is also critically important to teach people — including security personnel and members of the congregation — what to do if they see something suspicious and whom to call to report it. Unfortunately, a lot of critical intelligence is missed because it is not reported in a timely manner — or not reported at all — mainly because untrained people have a habit of not trusting their judgment and dismissing unusual activity. People need to be encouraged to report what they see. Additionally, people who have been threatened, are undergoing nasty child-custody disputes or have active restraining orders protecting them against potentially violent people need to be encouraged to report unusual activity to their appropriate points of contact. As a part of their security training, houses of worship should also instruct their staff and congregation members on procedures to follow if a shooter enters the building and creates what is called an active-shooter situation. These “shooter” drills should be practiced regularly — just like fire, tornado or earthquake drills. The teachers of children’s classes and nursery workers must also be trained in how to react. One of the things the SCN and ADL do very well is foster security liaison among Jewish congregations within a community and between those congregations and local, state and federal law enforcement organizations. This is something that houses of worship from other faiths should attempt to duplicate as part of their security plans. While having a local cop in a congregation is a benefit, contacting the local police department should be the first step. It is very important to establish this contact before there is a crisis in order to help expedite any law enforcement response. Some police departments even have dedicated community liaison officers, who are good points of initial contact. There are other specific points of contact that should also be cultivated within the local department, such as the SWAT team and the bomb squad. Local SWAT teams often appreciate the chance to do a walk-through of a house of worship so that they can learn the layout of the building in case they are ever called to respond to an emergency there. They also like the opportunity to use different and challenging buildings for training exercises (something that can be conducted discreetly after hours). Congregations with gyms and weight rooms will often open them up for local police officers to exercise in, and some congregations will also offer police officers a cup of coffee and a desk where they can sit and type their reports during evening hours. But the local police department is not the only agency with which liaison should be established. Depending on the location of the house of worship, the state police, state intelligence fusion center or local joint terrorism task force should also be contacted. By working through state and federal channels, houses of worship in specific locations may even be eligible for grants to help underwrite security through programs such as the Department of Homeland Security’s Urban Areas Security Initiative Nonprofit Security Grant Program. The world is a dangerous place and attacks against houses of worship will continue to occur. But there are proactive security measures that can be taken to identify attackers before they strike and help prevent attacks from happening or mitigate their effects when they do. - Scott Stewart and Fred Burton, Stratfor « Letter Re: Dealing With Local Building Inspectors |Main| The Survivalist's Guide to Martial Arts, by "Brick" » Saturday June 27 2009Letter Re: Keeping Cash On Hand--A Lesson Learned
Dear Jim, Well, at least I learned it this month, and not later in the year when it's possible bank holidays may occur! As panicked as I was on the 15th, I don't know how our friends will get through it if it happens to them! (notice-they offered checks, since they didn't have cash on hand, either) I am happy to say that other then being penniless at the moment, I was prepared with a deep larder and enough gasoline stored to keep the car going. No one starved and we made all our appointments although there was an awkward moment with a pay-now co-payment. (if only I had started the nickel collection!) One more week to go before this gets straightened out, but we will be okay. I'm actually grateful we're going through this now so lessons learned have the chance to be applied later when it will really count. (Cash-cash-cash-cash!) - A.C. « Letter Re: Dealing With Local Building Inspectors |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Friday June 26 2009The Meme of Crushroom: A Key Retreat Architecture ElementOne bit of retreat architecture that I've often recommended to my consulting clients who are designing (or retrofitting) retreats is the inclusion of a protruding entryway foyer, that I call a crushroom. Passing this advice along to you gives me the chance to employ one of my horrible puns: The Meme of Crushroom. A crushroom is a controllable confined space, typically an entry foyer, that can be covered with small arms fire or subjected to irritant or obscurant smoke or sprays. The outer door (or barred gate) to the crushroom is normally left open, but has a spring loaded self -closure device, and an automatically-engaged remote-controlled lock release mechanism. Think of it as a box trap for Bad Guys. Have you ever visited a Big City apartment with a communal door where you need to get "buzzed in"? In this case, the Bad Guys will have to be buzzed out of your crushroom The home invasion threat can only be expected to increase in coming years. I anticipate greater use of dynamic-entry tools by home invaders. For instance, they will soon use commercial or improvised door-entry battering rams and Hallagan tools—like those used by firemen and police entry teams. This means that standard solid-core doors by themselves will be insufficient. In a worst, case, thugs might even use vehicle-mounted battering rams. In such circumstances, it will be wise to have the extra layer of protection afforded by a crushroom. You should position the outer door to your crushroom one of its side walls, rather than lined up with the entrance door to the house. Having this 90-degree turn and allowing just a four foot space in front of the house entrance door has several advantages: First. it makes it impossible to use a long battering ram--since it limits the length and "throw" of a battering ram. (Even a very stout door, hinges, and doorframe will not withstand the impact of a 10-foot-long battering ram that is manned by a team of thugs). Second, it removes direct line of sight into your house. This is useful for light discipline, in a grid-down situation. (When you are likely to have electric lights in your house interior, but your neighbors won't.) Lastly, the crushroom wall opposite your front door provides another layer of ballistic protection--it would have to be knocked down before your front door could be attacked. Picture this: With your intrusion detection security system, you see one or more thugs approach your house. They are acting "hinkey", or outright aggressive--perhaps rushing in to conduct a home invasion robbery. Then they proceed to try to kick down your front door. But lo and behold, they don't succeed, because you've built your door and barred it to Rawles specifications. (Strong enough to resist even a small battering ram, and armored against small arms fire.) Using your intercom-loudspeaker, you sternly warn them away. But since they have bravado to spare and have never before encountered a door that they couldn't kick in, they persist with their futile leg exercises. At that point, you already have your telephone in hand, and have dialed 911. (That is assuming your are in pre-Schumeresque circumstances, when there still is a police or sheriff's department willing and able to respond.) You then flip the switch, releasing the crushroom's outer door. It slams shut, and locks. Now, the thugs feel trapped, crowded, or crushed in the close confines of the foyer. They will then almost surely turn their attention to kicking at the outer door (or barred gate). At this juncture, you have several "continuum of force" options: A.) You shout a stern warning and then hit the switch releasing the outer door and "buzz them out." This is effectively just letting them go,, with a warning. Such a course of action is recommended only in current day "peaceful" circumstances. B.) Using your exterior loudspeaker, you spend five minutes sharing the Gospel with the thugs, then you hit the switch to release the outer door. C.) You pull a wire that is attached to the pin on a smoke grenade in the decorative "overhead light fixture" in the foyer, and simultaneously start playing your retreat's PSYOPS tape over your exterior loudspeaker, at around 60 decibels. This combination (especially a violet smoke grenade and a tape of Jimi Hendrix playing Purple Haze) is sure to make the thugs think twice about coming back. D.) You pull a wire on that is attached to the pin on a CS tear gas grenade, and simultaneously start playing your retreat's PSYOPS tape at around 90 decibels. This, (especially a tape of Credence Clearwater Revival singing Bad Moon Rising) will probably make the goblins soil their trousers and reconsider their life of crime. E.) You slide open an armored gun port, and protrude the muzzle of your favorite large-caliber lead dispenser. F.) Any combination of options B, C, D, or E, in whichever sequence seems apropos, given the day's relative Schumer Index and the prevailing exigency of the circumstances. Alternatively, your crushroom could normally be kept locked from the outside. This will provide a valuable delay for even the most ambitious dynamic entry by home invaders. It will also provide you a safe place for you take delivery of mail and packages with some "stand-off" distance. Four Important Provisos: 1.) Only build a crushroom if you are also going to first upgrade your front door and doorframe to very stout specifications, and the surrounding wall is of similarly stout (i.e. masonry) construction. The last thing that you want to experience is a bunch of enraged bad guys actually entering your home. 2.) Do not mention the purpose of your crushroom to friends, neighbors, or even relatives. It should outwardly just look like either a "mud room", a "weather airlock", or perhaps a "Spanish style" foyer, with "decorative" heavy wrought iron bars. If you are indiscreet, word of it may get around, and then at best you'll get labeled as the local survivalist whacko. Or at worst, word will get as far as the local band of goblins, and whilst sharpening their knives they will deviously plan to bypass your crushroom entirely. They may decide to either bushwhack you while you are out splitting wood, or invade your house via your roof, with a chainsaw or a fireman's metal-cutting rescue saw. 3.) I most strongly encourage readers to use your crushroom's outer door as a mantrap (and any of the other active measures that I've mentioned) only in truly post-TEOTWAWKI circumstances. As I've noted many times before in SurvivalBlog, we live in an extremely litigious society. Displaying the audacity to actually hold bad guys in place until the gendarmes arrive could be grounds for civil lawsuits (for false arrest, excessive use of force, mental distress, etc.,) and possibly even criminal charges. In essence, if you hold someone in a citizen's arrest in excess of what a jury of your peers deems justifiable and reasonable, then you could conceivably be charged with felony kidnapping. Here, the "Reasonable Man" standard will probably be applied. (Black's Law Dictionary defines citizen's arrest as: "The apprehending or detaining of a person in order to be forthcoming to answer an alleged or suspected crime." See: ex parte Sherwood, (29 Tex. App. 334, 15 S.W. 812). 4.) Be sure to provide yourself a way out of your crushroom, in the event that the outer door closes unexpectedly when you don't have a door key in your pocket. Perhaps a spare key that is very well-hidden behind some molding. For further background, see this letter in the SurvivalBlog archives on "man trap" architectural features. Some Suggested Suppliers: Door closing springs. Check your local Yellow Pages for "Fire Door" hardware suppliers. Your local locksmith probably knows of a supplier, or may have a pile of used one in his back room. For a man trap, the faster the action of the door closure, the better. Hence, a traditional coil spring action is preferable to the more modern, slower pneumatically-dampened springs. Think in terms of cattle chute hardware, rather than what you'd likely see on shopping mall doors. Door release solenoids. (You've probably seen these on fire doors at hospitals and other public buildings.) Note that in circumstances where grid power is iffy, you can substitute a mechanical release, activated by a simple pull-cable and cotter pin. Door lock & release solenoid ("buzzer lock") mechanisms. Search for local suppliers with a the web search phrases "mantrap" or "common door buzzer lock". To provide sufficient "hold the goblins in place" strength, you may have to use multiple locking solenoids--at the top, middle, and bottom of the door--that are engaged and disengaged simultaneously. CS tear gas grenades. These are available from police supply houses. In most states it is not illegal for citizens to possess them. But by their company sales policy, most police supply houses will only sell these to orders placed on police department letterhead. But I've occasionally seen gas grenades sold at at gun shows, and they also come up from time to time on firearms auction sites like GunBroker.com and AuctionArms.com. For example, see this current GunBroker auction. Be sure to consult your state and local laws before buying these or similar pyrotechnic devices. Gun Ports. You might luck into some of these at a scrap yard (from a retired bank armored car), but more likely you will have to fabricate these yourself, or have a welding shop make them for you. Remember: Gun ports work both ways, so you will want a thick, well-braced, sliding backing plate that latches securely. Specify everything for the ports very thick and very stout. Any exposed hardware should be large-diameter and welded in place, once assembled. Exterior (weather resistant) loudspeakers. Rather than buying new (and expensive) speakers, try placing a "wanted" ad in Craigslist. It is amazing to see what people have salted away in their garages and attics. « Letter Re: Feedback on The American Empire is Bankrupt |Main| The Jump Kit, by Skyrat » Tuesday June 23 2009Letter Re: Societal Collapse: The Albanian Experience (Circa 1997)Mr. Rawles, In browsing your blog and its archives, I have been surprised to find no mention of the Albanian crisis in 1997. I believe that it offers a strong example of how quickly and unexpectedly a (relatively) advanced society can descend into chaos, and how drastic the consequences can be. For your readers (should you see fit to post this), I'll sum up. This is very basic information on the subject, and those readers who want to learn more can easily find more detailed info online. Coming out from under the Iron Curtain, Albania was a fairly well-ordered nation. Obviously it was much less developed than the Western European nations, but it wasn't sub-Saharan Africa either. With the fall of communism, new ways of conducting business opened up, and new means of finance came about as well. Over a few years the economy became dominated by Ponzi schemes, and when these collapsed, the nation descended into complete chaos. That's the quick and easy version. There are a few relevant things to learn here. 1. The people were taken in by a form of finance that they did not fully understand, or that had implications that they didn't grasp the magnitude of: 2. The resulting collapse came quickly and was severe: 3. The chaos was for a limited time, and order was restored: Hope this provides helpful food for thought. May God bless you all, and keep you and yours, - JJ in North Carolina JWR Replies: I appreciate you reminding our readers of the Albanian Crisis. This did, indeed come very close to a full-scale societal collapse death spiral. In my estimation, the reasons why it didn't get more prominent attention in the western media was because it took place in what could best be called a "backwater" region, and happened at the same time as the Kosovo crisis, which was considered the "bigger" story. (Read: The news camera crews were busy elsewhere, interviewing people that speak English. It is just human nature for journalists to prefer staying in a nice hotel in Belgrade, rather than some dump in Tirana.) Nor did journalists descend on Albania after the fact, to try to document what had happened. No, they were busy droning on and on about the death of Princess Diana, and the then-pending British handover of Hong Kong. This timeline and these photos are indicative of what the media failed to properly cover. « Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Societal Collapse: The Albanian Experience (Circa 1997) » Letter Re: Feedback on The American Empire is BankruptJWR: * One is his assessment of the primary cause of the American national bankruptcy, First, the fundamental causes of the American bankruptcy. Hedges quotes heavily from an article from & interview by The Financial Times' Michael Hudson. So that I don't take anything out of context, here is the text direct from Hedges' article, mostly quoting Hudson:
These statements are partially true...as far as they go. But what is left out is more important than what is said. No discussion (in fact, not even a mention) of spending for the U.S. welfare state? Not even the slightest consideration of the fact that American military capabilities are clearly authorized as Constitutional responsiblities--but not our welfare state? This is, simply put, looney toons logic and math. · Reasonable people can argue over costs, scope and effectiveness of U.S. military budgets/overseas operations (not to mention declared and undeclared wars) since 1916. But that's not where all the big money has been going. The serious spending increases in our budget are in domestic nanny statism, welfare, circuses and feasts—since at least 1965. You don't have to be a degreed economist to figure out that military spending constitutes "half of America’s discretionary spending" is because welfare state spending has been made non-discretionary! After all, that is why they're called entitlements! o We could defund every military capability we have...but not a single welfare payment can be stayed legally by the hand of the President, his Cabinet, or the U.S. Congress. Welfare and nanny-state benefits are literally entitlements, and by law cannot be left unfunded. · Things like welfare benefits, Section 8 Housing, etc., especially in this age of electronic payments, must be paid, even if the Congress does not pass those parts of the federal budget. (I believe this was written into law soon after the Clinton-Congress budget train wrecks in the 1990s.) · If you cut the entire U.S. military budget in half, you only dent the deficit. But if you cut just 25% of the sum total of all welfare state benefits, there would be a huge annual federal budget surplus. o I conclude Hedges' illogical placement of blame for the budget situation, and all of the impending consequences, are based on his political leanings... which are decidedly leftist, judging by this article. So, what is he trying to accomplish, since he is blaming the wrong folks for the crime? Second, I completely and absolutely dispute (verily, even dismiss) Hedges' conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as the U.S. bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives. Hedges states that: * "If [other nations] succeed [in dumping the U.S. dollar as the world's primary currency], the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak. And the rage that has kindled a handful of shootings and hate crimes in the past few weeks will engulf vast segments of a disenfranchised and bewildered working and middle class. The people of this class will demand vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal, which an array of proto-fascists, from the Christian right to the goons who disseminate hate talk on Fox News, will assure the country they will impose." Hedges is saying, politely, that those crazy religious people clinging to their guns are already going nuts, and they will get even worse once they start starving! And all of the "proto-fascists," which presumably means all of those folks recently described in Department of Homeland Security memoranda as being "risks" [read: pro-life, pro-balanced budget, conservative, libertarian, pro-2nd Amendment, Christians, ministers, bishops, Ron Paul supporters, Republicans, etc.], will be using the opportunity to enact "vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal." What Hedges fundamentally has done is blame all the victims for being raped!!! * I'm surprised he didn't go further and blame it on all of those evil "survivalists," but even looney tunes logic has trouble blaming the preppers for the very situation they've been predicting for a couple of decades now. Personally, when TSHTF I won't be nearly as worried about "working and middle class" folks as I am about the welfare-dependent, “entitlements-R-us” folks. The working and middle class folks have the brains to figure things out--we've had a number of neighbors start quietly storing food and gear over the last six months--even the ones who (now regretfully) voted for Obama. But, as proven repeatedly during and after the Katrina crunch...it is the welfare-dependent underclass that will tear the cities and countryside apart. Can things get ugly among "working and middle class" types?? Of course. Still, I think most folks who actually work for a living will quickly band together for security and burden-sharing purposes to endure and survive. However, I'm far more skeptical about those who think "the government" owes them a living, no matter what the situation--survivalblog.com fans are well aware of the many violent examples of that syndrome following multiple disasters over the last decade. (If not, try a couple of internet searches for "Katrina violence" or "Katrina gun confiscation" or "Katrina looting" or...well, you get the idea.") Bottom line: Hedges's article borrowed the language, analysis and conclusions of the prepper/survivalist/fiscal conservative movements--to use as a tool with which to attack them indirectly. Indeed, Hedges appears far more interested in painting the impending social unrest (read: welfare & food riots) as a tool of the another evil right wing conspiracy, than in acknowledging them as the inevitable consequence of the social policies he has supported and championed. Many of us were taught in our youth that we should "dance with the girl what ya brung." I think Hedges has concluded his "girl" (read: politics) is darn ugly, emits foul body odors, suffers from multiple social diseases, and has bad teeth to boot. Not surprisingly, he now wants to switch partners while blaming it on all the other, far more circumspect squires at the Preppers' Informal Dance--but we shouldn't help him get away with it. Respectfully, - Gentleman Jim in Colorado. « Letter Re: Sprouting is Key to Good Nutrition in TEOTWAWKI |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Sunday June 14 2009Letter Re: Three Abstracts on Public Health in Ghettos During the WWII Holocaust
James, Clinical Manifestations of "Hunger Disease" Among Children in the Ghettos During the Holocaust The harsh life in the ghettos were characterized by overcrowding, shortage of supplies (e.g. money, sanitation, medications), poor personal hygiene, inclement weather and exhaustion. Under these conditions, morbidity was mainly due to infectious diseases, both endemic and epidemic outbreaks with a high mortality rate. The dominant feature was hunger. Daily caloric allowance was 300-800, and in extreme cases (i.e. Warsaw ghetto) it was only 200 calories. The food was lacking important nutrients (e.g. vitamins, trace elements) leading to protean clinical expression, starvation and death. The clinical manifestations of starvation were referred to as "the Hunger Disease", which became the subject of research by the medical doctors in the ghettos, mainly in the Warsaw ghetto in which a thorough documentation and research were performed. The first victims of hunger were children. First they failed to thrive physically and later mentally. Like their elders, they lost weight, but later growth stopped and their developmental milestones were lost with the loss of curiosity and motivation to play. The mortality rate among babies and infants was 100%, as was described by the ghetto doctors: "when the elder children got sick, the small ones were already dead...". In the last weeks of the ghettos there were no children seen in the streets. In this article the environmental conditions and daily life of children in the ghettos are reviewed, and the manifestations of "Hunger Disease" among them is scrutinized. Morbidity in the Ghettos During the Holocaust The environmental conditions and daily life in the ghettos of Europe during the holocaust are reviewed, and their effect on morbidity in different ghettos is scrutinized in an attempt to construct a typical morbidity profile. The outstanding characteristics were: crowding, shortage of basic necessities (such as food, clothing and medications), harsh environmental and sanitary conditions, inclement weather, poor personal hygiene, chronic undernutrition and malnutrition, physical and mental exhaustion. Morbidity was mainly due to infectious diseases, both endemic and epidemic outbreaks with high mortality, and high infestation rates of lice and other parasites. The dominant feature was "hunger disease" with its protean clinical expressions, endocine pathology, growth and development retardation in children, and amenorrhea and infertility among women of child-bearing age. Polyuria, nocturia and increased frequency of bowel movement were common. The typical presentation of a ghetto dweller was of extreme emaciation (a loss of up to 50% body weight); muscle weakness and skeletal abnormalities; pale, dry skin with excoriations; pedal edema; anxiety and nervousness; often goiter in children. Most of the inhabitants had some, or all, of those signs and symptoms (there were times when more than half the population was sick). This syndrome complex was termed "Ghetto Sickness" or "Ghetto Fatigue" (ghetto schwachkeit).
The Health systems in several ghettos in Europe during the holocaust were studied in an attempt to construct a typical structural profile. The medical system in a typical ghetto consisted of a department of public health (sanitation) that belonged to the Yudenrat, several hospitals, outpatient clinics, first aid stations and physicians in the labor groups. The structure of the system in several ghettos is discussed and the functions of the various units in the prevention of epidemics, and health education are reviewed. Also described is the medical research that was carried out in the ghettos, emphasizing the work on "Hunger Disease" in the Warsaw ghetto, as well as the heroic endeavor to establish a clandestine medical school in the Warsaw ghetto during the holocaust « Letters Re: Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Monday June 8 2009Welcome to the Savage World of the Year 2009"Welcome to the savage world of the year 2009". That
was the tag line of the 1992 sci-fi film Freejack Let's look back at 1992: It is amazing how much the world has changed since 1992. To me, it doesn't seem that long ago. In 1992 I was 32 years, old, and our first child was an infant. In 1992, .308 ball cost $180 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 cost around $350, and cases of MREs could be bought at gun shows for around $30 each. Back in those days, I was running a mail order business from home, selling magazines. I was buying M1 Carbine 15 round magazines in cases of 100, for $90 per case, and re-selling them by the onesees and twosees for $3 per magazine. (One of my "get rich slow" ventures.) In 1992, you could still buy a plane ticket for cash, and stroll right up to the departure gate without a ticket in hand. Yes, there was a metal detector, but you could board a commercial flight with a pocketknife with a single-edge blade less than 2-1/2" long. (Remember when knife catalogs had "Airline approved" models?) In 1992, gasoline was $1.05 per gallon ($1.09 for premium), and a good loaf of bread still cost 49 cents. In 1992 you could take a car trip into Mexico or Canada, with a smile and the wave of your state driver's license. In 1992, I owned a small ranch near Orofino, Idaho. House prices there ranged from $39,000 to $155,000. (In 1989, we had paid $29,000 for an unfinished house on 40 acres.) Silver started that year at $4.20 per ounce, but drifted down to under $3.70 in December. (It was still in the midst of a two-decade long bear market.) A semi-auto AK-47 cost $179, an AR-15 was around $500, and an M1A was $800. Fast forward to 2009: The local gun shops are chronically short of ammunition, and what little they do receive from their wholesalers sells out immediately, at an average of $1 per round. Today .308 ball costs $900 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 costs around $1,200. A case of MREs can cost upwards of $90, and a loaf of bread is anywhere from 99 cents for the dreadful "air bread" to $4.69 for the good stuff. Gas is back up to more than $2.50 per gallon. A semi-auto AK-47 costs around $700, a low-end AR-15 is around $1,200, and a standard grade M1A is $1,600 if you can find one. Today, people line up like sheep and remove their shoes before boarding an airplane, and opening a checking account requires umpteen pieces of identification. Now, thanks to "Homeland Security" regulations, they will turn you down if you don't have a physical street address. (BTW, that gets a bit sticky here in The Unnamed Western State, where lots of my neighbors live so far back in the boonies that they don't have a street address. The bankers get all befuddled if you start quoting the Township, Range, and Section numbers of your quarter-section. In 2009, house prices are still plummeting from their 2006 highs, but still quite "spendy." A house around Orofino with a good spring now costs around $400,000. Who knows? In the current bear market, the price of houses may not bottom until they are close to their 1992 levels. Oh, and wait a minute! Firearms manufactuers are now working around the clock, and prices are expected to soon come back down. In 1992, a Steyr AUG cost $800, but then they peaked in 2008 at around $4,000. But now new production AUGs (made by Steyr in the US) have hit the market for under $1,800. You gotta love a free market economy. Maybe the more that things change, the more they remain the same. The "Freejack" script was loosely based on Robert Sheckley's novel "Immortality, Inc." The screenwriters had a few things right, but plenty of things wrong. For example, the "destroyed ozone layer" hasn't wrecked our health. And I don't feel at risk of my brain being hijacked. But, then again, I don't own a television. « Letter Re: Anesthesia for Traumatic Times |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: » Tuesday June 2 2009Two Letters Re: Protection from EMP Effects for Photovoltaic Panels and Communication Gear
Jim, I'm not very certain Solar Panels or photovoltaic (PV)
Modules if you prefer) are up to surviving electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
Solar Panel manufacture is akin
to
basically
creating large scale photosensitive semiconductors and few manufacturers will
quote
even static electricity resistance,
much less EMP resistance. Additionally, most PV modules have bypass diodes
to protect cells. Some designs put these diodes in the junction boxes, while
others incorporate them more integrally
in the PV assembly. I just made some queries with contacts at University of Manchester and Michigan
Tech. They told me that there that almost no EMP test results have been released
to public domain, but
that their Aerospace departments feel that PV Arrays are vulnerable at
the junction level as well as the wiring diode matrix and controller levels.
Mr. Rawles, In a nutshell,
they make the following recommendations: Solar Panel charge controller
protection. « Economics and Investing: |Main| Seeking Reader Input for "Patriots" Sequels » Friday May 29 2009Mexican Flu Update:Anger Over Breach of Quarantine in Oz « Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Letter Re: DIY Baking Powder Solves a Shelf Life Dilemma » Thursday May 28 2009Letter Re: A Ship's Belated Flu Quarantine as an Object Lesson Hi Jim, « Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Wood, the Alternative Energy for the Rest of Us, by Bill S. » Wednesday May 27 2009Letter Re: Questions on EMP Protection
Hello Jim,
Even if your refrigerator has some microcircuits, it is probably not at
risk to an EMP waveform, especially if it is running from a
stand-alone
12
VDC power
system. (Generally, devices that are connected to grid power are at greater
risk of EMP coupling.) But just to be safe, when your compact refrigerator
is not in use, you should store it in a galvanized steel garbage can (with
a tight-fitting
lid),
to act as a protective Faraday cage. « Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Questions on EMP Protection » Mexican Flu Update:Scientist: UK Swine Flu Really 30,000 « Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests » Tuesday May 26 2009Mexican Flu Update:Face
Protection Effective in Preventing the Spread of Influenza, Study Suggests « Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: FDA Restricts Over the Counter Sales of Bulk-Size Hemostatic Supplies » Monday May 25 2009Mexican Flu Update:WHO
Chief Says to Expect Severe Flu « Letter Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests |Main| Notes from JWR: » Saturday May 23 2009Five Months Till Armageddon--A Dark View of the Future, by H.I.C.I believe that America is facing a perfect storm…A rapidly cooling climate,
a committed socialist president taking over during an economic crisis, and
an unfinished war with fanatical murderous thugs. I am only 49 years old, but
I think my Father’s generation faced a similar storm starting in 1929.
I believe we could handle any one of these problems by itself, but maybe not
all at once. I wish I could suggest that we have more time and perhaps our
economy will recover before a second crisis event occurs. Since the banking
crisis started in August of 2007, and recessions typically last 2 -to-3 years,
it should right itself by late 2010 if our government does not do something
stupid. However, they are stupid and I believe we only have five months left
to prepare. I believe the climate is turning much colder due to a
drop in sunspot activity.
The most recent climate data shows this even if Al Gore insists on a recount
(apparently Al flunked both math and science).
I mention this because during the last Little Ice Age (1300-1850) global temps
dropped by 3˚C, the farmland north of where Interstate 80 now transits reverted
back to frozen marshlands, the Pacific Ocean cooled, and the resulting drop
in
moisture
caused
a prolonged drought in the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Perhaps a change
to the climate of the primary agricultural areas of the US may affect your
personal survival planning. Scenario 1: Collapse of the Banking System, Devaluation of the US
Dollar, and Civil War. They will cripple Washington DC, but will not kill off many of our politicians.
The initial reaction from the Obama Administration looks like suspending the
Constitution and our rights to gun ownership, private property, free association
and travel. I believe they will quarantine the cities, suspend air travel,
limit interstate travel by citizens, and turn the electronic eavesdropping
ability of the NSA on the American people. SurvivalBlog is full of detailed advise on preparing so I will only hit a
few highlights. Have a Plan B: Logistics and Planning: « Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests » Mexican Flu Update:Kudos to KAF for sending this piece: Researchers: Swine Flu Genes Swirled for Decades Undetected Emergency Preparedness Exercises Held at Banks Swine Flu Spreads in Australia « Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America's Emergency Medical Services |Main| Notes from JWR: » Thursday May 21 2009Biological Threat Assessment and Containment, by Anon.T
When either you or your group is confronted with a biological threat [such
as a pandemic or biological warfare], you must determine the following before
making decisions either for yourself or
for your group.
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