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Friday May 16 2008

How To Prepare for Radiation Emergencies, by KLK

Scenario 1
You are sitting at your retreat, enjoying the scenery, when you hear on the radio that there has just been a nuclear weapon that has detonated in a contiguous State . You decide to run into your shelter. After a few days in there, you start to wonder when it might be safe to come out. You also wonder if you would have been better off evacuating and getting as far away from the radiation source as possible.

A radiation disaster is a scenario for which we must be prepared. It may be from a radiological source, such as a nuclear reactor accident, or from nuclear devices, such as a nuclear weapon.
Much of what we know about radiation exposure comes from accidents such as Chernobyl [nuclear power plant disaster] and [the bombing of] Hiroshima [and Nagasaki]. With the nuclear reactor accident in Chernobyl (1986), 70% of the contamination fell on 26% of Belarus. 400,000 people were evacuated and 50,000 km squared was restricted and removed from use. The isotopes included Cs137, Cs134, Sr90, I131, and Pu239, with an estimated 114 Million Curies entering the environment. Untoward effects from this accident included 31 initial deaths, 300 injuries and hospitalizations, 150,000 abortions, $ 3 billion spent in emergency response, $500 million spent to compensate Italian farmers, 10,000 reindeer slaughtered, and an increase in cancer (mostly thyroid cancer, many years after the incident).

It is estimated that if a large US city (population 1 million) was hit by a 10-Kiloton (KT) nuclear device, that it would produce the following casualties:

>13,000 prompt fatalities
Approximately 114,000 expectant fatalities (>830 cSv)
Approximately 90,000 requiring ICU support (530-830 cSv)
Approximately 141,000 requiring either ICU or minimum care ward (300-530 cSv)
Approximately 150,000 requiring a minimum care ward (150-300 cSv)
Approximately 159,000 requiring outpatient therapy (70-150cSv)
Approximately 128,000 requiring health monitoring (25-70cSv)
Approximately 212,000 worried [but] well (<25 cSv)

The healthcare system is not ready or able to cope with this magnitude of casualties. That brings us to: What should you do?
The mechanism of injury from a nuclear device is 3 fold: blast, heat and radiation. Assuming a 10-KT burst, people within a 0.55 km radius of the explosion fall within a “blast injury circle” and have a high immediate fatality rate. People within a 0.9 km radius of the explosion fall within a “prompt radiation circle”, and people within a 2.1 km radius fall within the “thermal circle” and suffer 2nd degree burns. If you are outside of these 3 circles, you may suffer from radiation fallout. The amount of fallout you are exposed to is determined by 3 factors: length of time exposed, distance from the original explosion, and how much shielding there is between you and the radioactive source.

To minimize radiation exposure, you will want to reduce your time exposed, increase your distance from the source and have as much shielding as possible. This can lead to a dilemma if faced with this scenario: should you evacuate your retreat (increase your distance from the source), or should you stay and go into your shelter (increase your shielding)? The answer to this question will depend on whether or not you have a shelter, how far away from the initial source you are, the strength of the nuclear device, and the weather conditions. Even if you have a shelter, you may be forced to evacuate due to your proximity to the radiation source (Remember Chernobyl where 50,000 square kilometers were deemed unusable). It can take many months and sometimes years to clean up after a Radiation Event. Most people don’t have shelters that will sustain them for that long. Unfortunately, if faced with this scenario, you will have limited time to make your decision, for if you decide to evacuate you will want to do it immediately to reduce your exposure time, and before the roads get jammed with people. Thus, it would be useful to know a few basic equations to help you make your decision.

Radiation exposure follows the inverse square law- exposure reduction is proportional to the inverse square of the distance. Radiation is measured in Gray. If the source produces 10 Gy/hour at 1 meter, the exposure will be 2.5 Gy/hour at 2 meters (10 divided by 2 squared). The worst case scenario could produce up to 50-100 Gy/hour at the site of the explosion. With this information, you can calculate your exposure based on how far away you are from the radiation source. You must also keep in mind the weather conditions. If your calculation reveals a total body dose of <0.7 Gy, the radiation effect will be minimal, and you should be safe to stay at your retreat.

Scenario 2
You decided to stay at your retreat with some type of shelter, but after 12 hours a family member starts vomiting. Should you take them to the hospital which you know will be full of victims or should you stay isolated?
The key to treating radiation victims is knowing what dose of radiation they received. All medical decisions are based on the dose estimate.
There are many ways to determine dose of exposure, most of which require a hospital visit and laboratory tests. Without access to prompt healthcare, the easiest way to determine dose is to record the time from radiation exposure until the time the victim starts vomiting. Then use the information below to estimate the dose the victim received (measured in Gray):


Time To Onset of Vomiting Post Accident/Terrorist Act

Hours to Vomiting Estimated Dose (Gray)
20 0.1
7 0.5
5 1
2 5
1 10
0.8 20
0.5 50
0.3 100

 

Use that number for the following interventions:
If they received a dose of < 0.7 Gy, they will not be significantly affected by the radiation and they do not need to be hospitalized.

If they received a dose of 0.7-5 Gy, their lymphocytes (cells in the blood that fight infection) will dramatically decrease. This happens within the first 1-2 days and puts them at a very high risk of infection. Their hemoglobin and red blood cells will also decrease at 30 days after exposure and they will become very anemic. With good supportive care, the blood counts will recover by 60 days post exposure. Treatment includes IV fluids, antibiotics and colony stimulating factors. These are the people who benefit the most from being admitted to the hospital because they need the colony stimulating factors (which are not able to be stored at a retreat). My advice would be to take them into the hospital. If this is not feasible, they must be quarantined for at least 60 days. If they do not get an infection, there is a good chance they will live.

If they were exposed to a dose of 6-15 Gy, the predominant effect will be on their gastrointestinal system- this means profuse, bloody diarrhea and dehydration, starting at 5-7 days post exposure. It is also often associated with severe nausea/vomiting and fever. Treatment includes specific antibiotics, GI nutrition, IV fluids and early cytokine therapy for 5 or more weeks. These people will also benefit from hospitalization if feasible. Survival is possible, but unlikely.

If they were exposed to > 15 Gy, the effect will be on their cardiovascular system and central nervous system. This leads to brain swelling and death within 2-3 days. It is associated with a 100% mortality rate and the best care would be to provide them with pastoral care and to keep them comfortable. There is nothing medically that can be done to save their life.

Scenario 3
You decide to make a trip into town to pick up some supplies. It’s around 10 a.m. and you are walking down the street. All of a sudden you hear a loud explosion and see pieces of shrapnel flying. There are casualties all around you from the scrap metal. You are thankful that none of it hit you. Then you hear someone yell “It was a Dirty Bomb!” You think to yourself, “A Dirty Bomb! What should I do?”
A “Dirty Bomb” is a radiological dispersion device which combines a conventional explosive with a radioactive material. It is not a nuclear weapon, nor a weapon of mass destruction; however, it is a weapon of mass disruption. The impact depends on the type of explosive, amount and type of radioactive material and the weather conditions.

Immediate deaths or serious injuries would likely result from the explosion itself. It is unlikely that the radioactive material would kill anyone. The radioactive material would be dispersed into the air and reduced to relatively low concentrations. Low level exposure to radioactive contamination could slightly increase your long term risk of cancer (mostly thyroid cancer). There would be significant impact by causing fear, panic and disruption. Clean up would be costly and could take many months.

Consider this example: In Goiania, Brazil, 1987, 1375 Ci of Cs-137 spread throughout a neighborhood. It was an accident (not a terrorist event), and yet it caused mass panic and fear. Ultimately, 112,000 people were screened, out of which 249 had detectable contamination. Four victims died within four weeks and 20 were hospitalized. Site remediation took months to complete (Oct 1987-March 1988). Can you imagine the impact if it had been a planned event?

Dirty bombs can expose one to radiation both externally and internally. Internal contamination can occur through inhalation (nose, mouth) or absorption (wound in the skin). The radiation is typically deposited in the thyroid, liver, lung and bone. It is not acutely life threatening.

When dealing with a victim of radiation contamination, act as if they were contaminated with raw sewage. Protect yourself with clothes, mask, and gloves and use standard medical emergency procedures (Airway/Breathing/Circulation). Decontaminate after the victim is stabilized. Removing their clothing and washing with soap and water is 95%+ effective at decontaminating. Treat with fluids, anti-emetics (anti-nausea), anti-diarrheals and pain medication.

There are also blocking and diluting agents, but these are isotope specific:
For Radioactive Iodine (I-131), use Potassium Iodide (KI) - must be given within 4 hours after the exposure, see the dosing chart below
For Strontium-85 and Strontium-90, use calcium, aluminum, barium
For Tritium, use ordinary water (force fluids for 3 days)
For the Transuramics (Plutonium, Americium, Curium, Californium), use DTPA 1 gram intravenously (must be given within 24 hours after the exposure)
For Cesium, use Prussian Blue 1 gram orally three times a day for three weeks

There are two problems with the blocking agents: First, you often don’t know what the isotope identity is until after it is too late to administer the blocking agent. There is no easy way to determine which isotopes were included in the bomb and you will need to rely on medical personnel to provide you with this information. Secondly, most of the blocking agents are not readily available. The only exception is KI, which is easily purchased through many of the SurvivalBlog advertisers. You are fortunate if you have DTPA or Prussian Blue stored away, but most people don’t.

In the absence of knowing what isotopes were in the dirty bomb, my advice would be to have as much fluid as possible (to dilute tritium). I would also take KI if you have some. If I-131 was in the bomb, the KI will protect your thyroid gland (and possible cancer later in life). It must be taken within 4 hours after the exposure. If I-131 was not in the explosive, the KI is safe with minimal side effects. If you decide to take some, use the following dosing chart:
Adults 18 and older: 130 mg of KI
Pregnant/Lactating females: 130 mg KI
Children age 3-18 years: 65 mg KI
1 month-3 years: 32 mg KI
Birth-1 month: 16 mg KI

In summary, the radiological/nuclear threat is real! Mass casualties in your area are possible, but radiation injury is treatable.

JWR Adds: Some readers might not be familiar with the term Gray--the standard unit of measurement for radiation exposure, that replaced REM (Roentgen Equivalent, Man), and RAD (Radiation Absorbed Dose). For us Bomb Shelter Era dinosaurs, conversion from Grays are as follows.

1 Gy equals 100 rad
1 mGy equals 100 mrad
1 Sv equals 100 rem
1 mSv equals 100 mrem

Stocking up on KI tablets is inexpensive, so every family should keep a supply on hand. In 1985, I was stationed in West Germany and was briefly down-wind of Chernobyl. At the time I wished that I had some KI available! Anyone that lives in an urban area should have a Nuk-Alert "key fob" radiation detector. That way you won't have to wait for word from someone else to determine whether or not a nearby bomb explosion was a dirty bomb. Nuk-Alerts are available from several SurvivalBlog advertisers.

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Friday May 9 2008

Louisiana Sales Tax Holiday for Hurricane Preparedness--May 24 & 25

Residents of the US state of Louisiana can purchase needed items free of sales tax as they prepare for the 2008 hurricane season.
The inaugural 2008 Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday takes place on Saturday, May 24 and Sunday, May 25. The holiday is an annual, statewide event created by the Louisiana Legislature to assist families with the important job of protecting their lives and property in the event of a serious storm.
During the two-day holiday, tax-free purchases are allowed for the first $1,500 of the sales price on each of the following items:
• Self-powered light sources, such as flashlights and candles;
• Portable self-powered radios, two-way radios, and weather-band radios;
• Tarpaulins or other flexible waterproof sheeting;
• Ground anchor systems or tie-down kits;
• Gas or diesel fuel tanks;
• Batteries – AAA, AA, C, D, 6-volt, or 9-volt (automobile batteries and boat batteries are not eligible);
• Cellular phone batteries and chargers;
• Non-electric food storage coolers;
• Portable generators;
• Storm shutter devices – Materials and products manufactured, rated, and marketed specifically for the purposes of preventing window damage from storms (La. R.S. 47:305.58).
The 2008 Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax holiday begins at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, May 24, and ends at 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, May 25.
The sales tax holiday does not extend to hurricane-preparedness items or supplies purchased at any airport, public lodging establishment or hotel, convenience store, or entertainment complex.
For more information, visit the State of Louisiana web site.

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Monday February 11 2008

Letter Re: The Recent Blizzard on I-90 in Wisconsin

JWR,
I read the link that was submitted by Craig in Odds 'n Sods. The Channel 3000 story couldn't be farther from the truth. As a local first responder, I can attest that we are getting the short end of the stick. The State Patrol didn't even acknowledge there was any problem on the interstate until hours after our crews were already on scene. They didn't even know that Dane County had set up an incident command headquarters at the Highway 51 interchange. The first semi trucks started losing traction as early as 10 a.m.that day. Near blizzard conditions had been present all the previous night. I am on Stoughton, Wisconsin EMS team, and my cousin is with the Stoughton Fire Department. My cousin and his friend, also a firefighter, responded to the command center with personally owned snowmobiles.

Shortly after these two individuals start checking the welfare of motorists, a State Patrol officer stopped them and read them the riot act for daring to drive snowmobiles on what he called "my interstate." He threatened to give both emergency responders (acting under fire command orders) citations for operating the snowmobiles on the interstate. They had been tasked by the incident commander with recon of the southbound lanes, they made it to the Rock River (where the Rock County incident command was set up), and were met by more than 30 members of the local snowmobile club. These private citizens came ready equipped with food, water and first aid. The two local firefighters were tasked by Rock Co. incident command to split up the club members into two teams and check lanes in both directions.

At no time did the local responders ever see National Guard members on snowmobiles. Nor did they ever see any on the interstate. The National Guard were handing out water and food from one truck at the Dane Co. incident command headquarters to emergency workers. The stranded motorists soon started to become covered by snow drifts. Many said that was the most scary aspect, as well as the total lack of information. Local cell towers became overloaded. Communications were accomplished by "CB relay chains".

Several diabetic motorists were assisted by snowmobilers, and one patient who was en route to the University of Wisconsin Hospital in his privately owned car was loaned a portable generator since the internal battery on the patient's medical device ran out.

The National Guard chopper was seen overhead on several occasions, but never landed as far as I know. Much later in the day, after some traffic flow began, the snowmobilers had to go back out to the interstate to wake up some of the semi truck drivers, who had been sleeping in their cabs, and whose rigs were now blocking traffic flow. All told, the firefighter/snowmobilers logged over 400 miles traversing a 25 mile stretch of I-90. - BadgerDad, EMT-IV

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Tuesday December 25 2007

During a Disaster Event Should You Stay at Home or Leave?, by Grandpappy

Different types of disasters may require a different response if a family wishes to maximize their chances for long-term survival. Therefore each family should have several different disaster plans that they could successfully implement depending on the circumstances. These plans should include:
1. Staying at your home and being able to survive for a reasonable period of time without any outside assistance, and
2. Quickly and efficiently evacuating your home and traveling to a predetermined destination.

Staying at home is probably the best overall strategy for most families in a variety of different disaster type situations. However, there are a few scenarios where your continued long-term survival may necessitate the evacuation of your home. For example, consider each of the following situations:

Fire in a city, suburb, or in the country: The only option is to leave and to leave quickly. Even if the fire doesn’t reach your home, the smoke could make it impossible to breathe. If your home does survive then the smoke from the fire will probably saturate many of your possessions and they will have to be replaced.

Flooding From Heavy Rains or Hurricanes: During severe flash flooding many homes, trees, and cars are completely swept away. If you stay, you die. In other areas only the first floor of a home may be under water. You might be safe on the second floor, or in the attic, or on your roof. In most flooding situations the water does eventually recede and you can go downstairs. However, the building foundation is now weakened, the floors are warped, the walls are cracked and peeling, and the appliances are ruined. It these cases it frequently costs less to rebuild from scratch than to repair all the damaged areas. And living in the home during the repairs is not an option because the mold and mildew that is now growing in your floors and walls will produce air-borne spores that will make you sick and gradually kill you. If this situation your only option will be to leave. (Note: If you become unexpectedly stranded in your home during a flood and you can’t evacuate, then you should quickly transfer your most important possessions to the second floor or attic to reduce the possibility of their becoming water damaged.)

Drought: The lakes dry up. The city water supply is exhausted. The city must be evacuated. You may stay if you wish but why would you want to? What type of people do you think will become your new neighbors? How will you survive when your current supply of food and water is eventually gone and the drought continues? Without rain there will be no way to replenish your water supply and no way to grow more food. Without water how will the city survive if someone’s very small cooking fire accidentally gets out of control and quickly spreads throughout a very, very dry building? In a very short period of time the entire city will be in flames. And if the city has already been evacuated then you will not receive any warning until you see the flames or smell the smoke, assuming it doesn’t happen while you are asleep.

Epidemic: Is the disease spreading by water, air, human contact, or some combination of methods? What percent of the population is dying? Staying inside your home in this situation would probably be the best solution unless the flu is being spread through the air. If that is the case and you are living in a heavily populated area then how long will it take the virus to eventually make its way into your air supply? If you had a gas mask or face filters then you might be able to escape to a remote region of a national forest where the virus will have a smaller chance of reaching and infecting you.

Martial Law: Why was it implemented? What are the restrictions? And do you really want to live in a heavily-populated area that is being policed by the military and where you could be executed by anyone in the military for any reason at any time without any type of trial?

Political or Religious Persecution: What if all registered Republicans are suddenly declared to be enemies of the state? Or all Democrats? Or all Protestants or Catholics or Muslins? Some of you may be laughing right now and saying this is impossible and it could never happen in this country. I truly hope you are right. But what if you are wrong? What if you suddenly heard on the news that you are now a member of a group of people that has been identified as being enemies of the state? What would be your plan for survival? If you remain where you currently live it would only result in your immediate arrest, trial, and either imprisonment or execution. During World War II in Germany there were millions of Jews, Christians, and several other groups of individuals who learned this lesson the hard way. And Germany is not an isolated example. This has happened many, many times in many different places in modern history.
None of these things are pleasant to think about but the above threats are real. If any one of them should occur where you now live then you may need to evacuate your home or apartment very quickly in order to have any chance for long-term survival.

How to quickly evacuate your home or apartment is not something most people take the time to think about. However, over the past few years the increasing number of families that have had to quickly evacuate their homes is extraordinary. Entire families and communities have been uprooted and moved to another area and in many cases they will never be able to return to their homes or to the life they once knew. Hurricanes, flooding, and forest fires have resulted in the loss of billions of dollars worth of possessions and have claimed an unknown number of lives. Devastating winter weather has crippled many areas and left hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity or heat in the middle of winter and forced people to seek refuge and basic survival in community shelters, schools and churches.

Flash floods and forest fires happen so quickly that people do not have the time to carefully consider what they should take with them. Later when they return and find their home and possessions reduced to cinders, or ruined from water damage, they wished they’d had more time to think about their choices before they were forced to evacuate.
Therefore, before a disaster strikes, prudent individuals will make a simple list of the most important things to salvage in the event of a disaster. Later, if a disaster should force them to evacuate their home then they can consult their list and quickly execute their plan and collect and save their most important possessions. They could salvage the things they would need to survive under difficult circumstances, and things that would make their transition to a different life style not only possible but also a little easier for their entire family.

If you survive a disaster then you can start over. If you have a plan, starting over will not be as difficult as someone who evacuates without a plan. Unfortunately some of the people who survive without a plan will eventually resort to robbing and/or killing. Predators do not discriminate and they will prey on one another as well as on the helpless. Human predators are usually a self-correcting problem during a disaster, if the disaster lasts long enough.

If you must evacuate your home you should have carefully considered ahead of time where you will go. Your destination should not be a last minute decision because your choice of a destination is as important as carefully selecting which items to take with you.

Bug-Out Destination Options
Let’s examine several different destination options. In each of the following situations you should attempt to pay your expenses using whatever credit cards you have available and save whatever cash you might have for a future emergency. If your family has more than one car then you should quickly load each vehicle to the maximum, without overloading them, and then drive out of the disaster area. Before you start you should have consulted a map and selected a minimum of two alternate routes that lead to your final destination. Then listen to your car radio as you are driving to see if there are traffic or other problems along any of your planned departure routes. The quicker that you can be underway the better your chances will be that you can get your family to safety.
Your safe destination could be any one of the following:

Family: If you have family members who live outside the impacted disaster area then they may be willing to provide you with shelter for a short period of time until the disaster has passed and you can return to your home. However most families live on a very tight budget and they will not be able to feed and clothe you for an extended period of time. It would be nice if you paid for some of the groceries while you are there, and also made a contribution to their utility bills. If it later becomes impossible for you to return to your original home then you will need to find new employment and a place to live as quickly as you can to relieve the pressure on family relationships. If your new job does not pay enough so you afford to rent a place of your own, then you should give at least half of each of your paychecks to the family you are staying with to help pay their bills. You should also remember that you are still a guest in their house, and that every member of your family needs to abide by their rules.

Friend's Home: The above comments about family also apply to very close friends. However the relationship is much weaker and friends should only be imposed upon for the absolute minimum amount of time. Even if you have discussed this situation with your friends in advance, it would still be a good idea to minimize the amount of time you stay with them.

Motel: A motel located outside the disaster area is a good option if you can afford it, and if the disaster is forecasted to be relatively short in duration. Once the disaster passes you may be able to return to your normal way of life. An Extended Stay Motel might be a better option because you can pay by the week or month and each room also has a few kitchen appliances, such as a refrigerator and a microwave. Before paying the rent always politely ask if you can see the actual room you will be renting.

Boarding House: Depending on the size of your family you may be able to rent a simple room in a boarding house on a weekly or monthly basis. You can read the “For Rent” section of the local newspaper to locate one these places and then you can call to see what their rules are. You should phone several places to find the best deal based on what your family requires.

Forest Campground or recreational vehicle (RV) Park: If the weather permits, then a campground or RV Park may be an option if you have an RV, or if you have a good tent and some camping gear. Many RV Parks have a separate campground area for tents. They also have a community shower area, one for men and one for women, and they have drinking water available near the campsite. A good tent is not an expensive investment and every family should have a tent to avoid being forced into a Government Shelter for survival. Even if you have no money you can still camp for free in most National Forests as long as you don’t stay at one of the official forest campgrounds. However, you will need to move your campsite at least once per week to a different area to comply with forest regulations. (Note: If you own an RV then it might be wise to find an RV storage site close to your planned evacuation destination. The monthly rental to store and park an RV is about the same everywhere but the advantage of parking it near your planned destination is that your RV would already there. If you have family members who live on acreage way out in the country then they may be willing to let you park your RV at their place for free.)

Government or Community Shelter: As a last resort, you may temporarily reside in a shelter. A church operated temporary disaster shelter is usually less restrictive than other types of shelters. However, before you go to the shelter it would probably be a good idea to rent a temporary storage facility and store all your equipment, supplies, and personal belongings in the storage unit. Many of these monthly storage rental units are large enough to drive a car into so you could park your extra car inside and still have room to store all your equipment and supplies. You are also allowed to put your own personal padlock on the door to your rental unit. (Note: Some storage units will not allow you to park a car inside the actual rental unit but they will rent you space inside the fenced area to park your car on a monthly basis. In this situation completely empty your car into the rental until before you park it.) If you have cash, or if you can get cash from an ATM, then you should pay the rent in cash to avoid leaving an electronic trail to the location where you are storing your remaining possessions. If possible pay the rent for a minimum of three months in advance and get a receipt. Your entire family could then get into the remaining vehicle and drive to the shelter location. Just remember that some shelters are easy to get into but almost impossible to get out of until the authorities are ready to release you. If you become a voluntary prisoner at one of these shelters you may discover that life in the shelter is unbearable and that you are not allowed to leave simply because you now realize you should have never entered the shelter. When you first enter the shelter, there is a strong likelihood that government shelter personnel will carefully search you and confiscate any weapons, knives, drugs including prescription medicines, tools, children toys, money, makeup, wallets, purses, keys, and any extra food you may be carrying with you. It is unlikely you will get all of these items back when it is time for you to leave. In some cases you will only be allowed to enter the shelter with the clothes you are wearing and a new identification card [or wrist band] issued to you at the shelter. This makes escape from the shelter less feasible because you will have surrendered all your possessions including your driver’s license, credit cards, money, and keys. This forces you to follow any rules the shelter may impose because you are now defenseless and you know you now have no other choice in the matter. Savage brute force will dominate inside these shelters and your family members will be subject to beatings, rape, and having their daily food rations forcibly confiscated by the strongest residents in the shelter. In a worst case, these evil individuals will continue to grow stronger as your family members continue to grow weaker and eventually die of disease or starvation. These are some of the reasons why a church or community volunteer shelter would be preferred to an official government shelter.

The preceding discussion has focused on: (1) the need to evacuate, and (2) several different possible destinations. It has not reviewed the most important things to take with you when you evacuate your home. Here is a link to a list of practical and useful items.

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Thursday December 6 2007

Letter Re: Preparedness for Less Than a Worst Case, From an Eastern Urbanite's Perspective

Jim,
I found the following in a letter posted on your blog: "Barring TEOTWAWKI, it seems to me that we are infinitely more likely to face moderately scary scenarios, like Hurricane Katrina and necessary urban evacuation, some urban 1970s-style civil disturbance but nothing like Mogadishu, high-intensity individual criminal acts, a low-order terrorist event nearby and the accompanying panic, or some other situation shy of the worst case scenario."

Do people realize that New Orleans wasn't far from becoming Mogadishu-like after Hurricane Katrina? Certainly if the water hadn't flooded the streets it very well could have been much worse. The flood waters actually helping the situation by restricting movement to a degree. And let's not forget we heard the approved media version of it. Who knows how many people really were killed, wounded or raped.

Certainly we want to hope and pray for the best, but it's totally unrealistic given recent examples in the United States to think that the low-lifes in society will not take advantage of any and possibly every situation. There's some good writings out regarding some of what happened in breakdowns and economic problems in other countries- i.e, Argentina, Rhodesia, etc. Here's some things to consider regarding that:

I would argue that people in third world countries are accustomed to: currency devaluation, military controls, rioting in the streets, high crime rates, food shortages, breakdown of infrastructure [such as extended power failures], et cetera.

So for the average Third World resident these things are not TEOTWAWKI. Now consider the suburbanite in the US of A:, "John Smith": John is definitely not used to seeing the value of his money vanish before his own eyes. John Smith is not used to getting mugged every day on his way home. John Smith is not used to seeing the military on his street. John Smith is not used to rioting in his city. John Smith is not used to two or three days of brown-outs or black-outs.

John Smith gets angry and extremely frustrated when someone cuts him off in traffic. John's wife Sally is irate when she loses satellite reception during Oprah and she misses the required reading section. John and Sally's kids are even worse.

And that's suburban folks, what most of us would call "middle class." We won't even bother to talk about some of the other's actions, just find the archives of Hurricane Katrina and the New Orleans Superdome and you'll figure that out. [JWR Adds: Lest anyone consider this a quasi-racist statement from R.H., bear in mind that some of the looters caught on film in New Orleans were white and hispanic. The tendency toward looting and other acts of lawlessness during disasters is tied to economics and whether or not children have a law-abiding, morally-grounded upbringing, not race.]

As survivalists, we need to be careful in our thinking. If we are not mentally prepared for the "worst case" and always assume that the guvmint will bail us out before our "three day kit" nonsense runs out, we are going to be in for a world of hurt. It took about three days for it to get really ugly in New Orleans and one could argue that had a lot to do with weather factors or it potentially would have happened sooner.

A lot of folks have "itching ears" and want to hear that they will be okay in the suburbs, that two weeks of food is enough, that they will only have to 'brandish' a firearm and won't have to actually use it, et cetera. I'd like to personally thank you and the many others on the net that don't water down the message so as to pander to "itching ears." Thank you for your commitment to reality - R.H.

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Wednesday November 28 2007

Letter Re: Updated Nuclear Targets in the United States

Jim,
This letter is in response to your posting today regarding potential nuclear targets. Overall, a very good question by DFer, and your wise and reasonable response is much appreciated. As one of the few people on the Internet who actually discuss potential US nuclear targets, based on historical government documentation, I'm glad to see you and a few others (Shane Connor, Joel Skousen, etc.) not letting this important point of history be forgotten. It's another visit to an old post of yours in June of 2006.

Lawrence's response in that post was "old 1960s era targeting maps will still give the survivalist a good idea of where not to be when TSHTF". That still applies. Discussion on your site and many others about other places not to be (mass gatherings such as sports events, malls, national monuments and the like) is also worthy of consideration, in our current trend of monthly terror threats, such as today's announcement of Osama Bin Laden's latest video threatening Europe. (And yes, .mil is very concerned on both sides of the pond).

I have had a few "unofficial" e-mails from government contacts in the last couple of years (since 2005...most [of them] working on government contracted publications for internal use) who have asked for some of my non-public collected data information on targeting, and the short online Q&A with them has led me to believe that the pot of hot water we frogs have been living in has had the heat turned up, meaning this...new and updated lists of potential worry are prepared, and probably still being tuned and polished up, as the daily world threat thermometer rises and falls.

I seriously doubt the general public will see these lists, maps, locations, and target types for many years to come, since the external threat to US soil is still at such a ragged and ever concerned pace. It took only two years to get the National Attack Planning Base 1990 released from FEMA by the FOIA, thanks to a friend of mine who found my document wish list a few years ago. While just over 20 years old, it's still the measuring stick for any reports that follow.

FEMA 196 is still the only consumer document available directly from FEMA that ever gave fairly detailed info (to a generalized county level) of potential US targets, and since US threats have risen greatly since 9/11, it may well be the only document that FEMA, or succeeding agencies, ever produce on that subject. What we can learn from the currently available info, is why the original targets were targets, and what might make new locations future targets. It takes a bit of work on our part, but it's not any more difficult than basic

I've expanded the target list on SurvivalRing a bit with more discussion of what makes a target, and have added a comments section to the web page to answer specific questions that readers and visitors may have about the old targets, and potential new targets. SurvivalBlog readers might like to discuss our current target list, or have more info they'd like to bring to the table.

Since I'm still attending college full time, I have a lot of my site projects on the back burner, but one near the top of the list is a mashup of my blogging software, with Google Maps, extended interactive areas, and a lot deeper discussion, research, and updating on targeting, safe areas, and all the details you mention in your response (weather patterns, population demographics, etc). I'm finishing up an atmospheric science class this semester that really opened my mind to global weather patterns more than ever, and the work that Shane Connor did with Transpacific Fallout is going to be seeing an update from me in the spring.

Keep up the great work, and thanks for all you do. You're one of the most rational minds I've found on the web when it comes to the simple work of helping others understand why we need to think about dealing with whatever the future brings. - Rich Fleetwood, Founder of SurvivalRing.org

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Tuesday November 13 2007

New Zealand's South Island Readies for "the Big One", by SurvivalistSam

The whole South Island has been told to prepare for a massive earthquake in the near future.
This is due to the Alpine Fault Line which is where the Australasian and Pacific plates meet on the West Coast of the South Island.
The boundary between these two plates is locked and the pressure building up needs to be released.
A release of such pressure would result in an earthquake about the size of a number 8 on the Mercalli Intensity scale.
Such a earthquake would last for minutes, not seconds.

Canterbury University Associate Professor Tim Davies was quoted at a recent meeting as saying that, "The longer it goes before the next earthquake, the bigger the bang will be when the spring goes."

The shaking from the predicted earthquake would be felt all throughout New Zealand and may even be felt as far away as Sydney.
Mr. Davies also emphasized that people should have food and supplies on hand to last for up to three weeks after a quake.
Shaking damage and land instability from a quake like this would disrupt surface transport for months, tourists will be trapped, and distribution of vital supplies ( e.g. food, fuel) will be limited. Hydro stations will shut down immediately and may be slow to restart, power reticulation will be damaged. Only satellite phones will remain in use.
Landslides into lakes and fiords may cause tsunami, as may the collapse of river deltas in lakes or the sea. Queenstown, Milford and Wanaka are likely sites of tsunami damage
Tour bus operators are also urged to stock up on food and supplies for their customers who could likely be trapped for days in isolated locations.

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Monday October 22 2007

Letter Re: Lack of Government Preparedness and Infrastructure Upkeep Necessitates G.O.O.D. Planning

Jim,
Popular Mechanics magazine outlines five scary Katrina-esque scenarios
in various parts of our country might face in the coming years. I find it interesting that two of the five involve California and three of the five involve large bodies of water. People in the affected areas need to seriously consider moving out or having a Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) plan. Also, just because you don't think you are near any bodies of water, it does not make your home immune to floods. When checking a local university's Emergency Preparedness Plan, I found out that my neighborhood is part of a flood plain for a dam 16 miles away. Fortunately, high ground is within a five minute walk and any flooding from catastrophic failure will take [considerable time] to reach my home.


I pray that nothing horrible will happen to my loved ones, but since reading and acting on the advice of SurvivalBlog, I am more confident in my ability to protect my family. As concerned citizens, we all need to get after our local and Federal government to maintain and improve our infrastructure so we can avoid these disasters. But, like you've admonished us before, we must be prepared in case our government fails us. Because they have, and they will. - Mark D., Utah

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Letter Re: The Southeastern US Drought

JWR:
I was talking to a friend in North Carolina this afternoon and he was telling me about the drought conditions in the Charlotte area and he relayed to me some interesting drought news.

- The several acre sized lake on his property has dried up.
- Duke Power has issued a statement, in the local area, to expect power disruptions in the coming months due to low water levels in the reservoirs that Duke operates that is used for hydro power, cooling towers, and such.

Here is a link from the DOE about a drought's drain on power. The article is from 2002, but the conditions are worse now.


Best Regards, and I am taking advantage of your "6-Pack" sale for autographed copies of "Patriots". - Desert T

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Friday August 17 2007

Letter Re: Recent Floods in the UK and the Impact on Our Preparations

Further to my recent post about the recent flooding In the UK, things in the immediate area are pretty well back to normal now, aside from some continuing disruption to the road network due to land-slips, undermining and in some cases, bridges across water courses being washed away.
Here, we got off very lightly, compared to some. No loss of life, no injuries, very little property damage. There are many families, however, who will be counting the cost of this incident for a long time, both in terms of loss of loved ones and of property and livelihood. One’s heart goes out to them.As to how our preparations ameliorated the effects of the flooding, I must first of all say we were very lucky to have escaped. The waters found their way into areas never before affected, with properties and farmland many feet above the normal floodplain levels being covered. In one case, a farm tractor in just such a place was up to its cab-roof in floodwater.
However, we moved to this area for work purposes in 1999. Prior to the move we rented a property in the area to give us a base from which to explore and familiarise ourselves with it.
The next task was to obtain 1:50,000 Ordnance Survey maps of the entire region and work out the pros and cons of each likely area for settlement.
To the east of this region lies the flat, productive lands of the Vale of Evesham which, as beautiful and fertile as they may be, are crisscrossed with so many waterways that the map of the area appears to have varicose veins. To the west the topography changes as it moves into the mountains of Wales, an area of stunning countryside, so well beloved of tourists in the summers, but one so bleak in winter that it is used by Special Forces as a training ground. [JWR Adds: This is the "Brecon Beacons" area that many SurvivalBlog have read about in books about the SAS.]
In-between the two the land becomes one of foothills, with small peaks up to a thousand feet or so.
The area has several cities, many towns and villages, with all the concomitant amenities and services along with a good transport infrastructure. It ticked many of the boxes we had earmarked as necessities.
It also has one of the most unstable rivers in Europe running through it; the River Severn. With its source in the hills of mid-Wales, the Severn is one of many local rivers that feed from the mountains of Wales and find their way to the sea further south in England after joining with the Severn.
Coming in from the east is the River Avon, of Shakespeare and Stratford-upon-Avon fame. Another picturesque watercourse when in good humour, but truly frightening when in flood. This too joins the Severn as it moves west towards the sea.
Given all this water, the thought of joining the many flood-plain dwellers (does this name not give them a clue?) along these rivers did not have much appeal. Also not wanting to live in an urban environment, we ruled out the cities and larger towns. This led us to ‘head for the hills’ but given the additional need to be reasonably close to transport links due to work commitments, a compromise had to be reached.
We finally settled on (in?) the outskirts of a village in the foothills which had the requisite communication links and was high enough to avoid all but truly Armageddon-like flooding from the river system.
Being doomers by inclination and country folk by nature, we set about making the place as self-contained as possible given the constraints of time, money and the desire not to look out of place.
Water was a primary objective. Having invested so much time and effort trying to avoid it, we now installed a series of linked barrels to collect around 500 gallons of rainfall run-off from the various roofs. (The long term plan was to install underground storage but an impending move has forestalled this). This to be used in the summer for assisting with garden irrigation and for hygiene use should the need arise.
There is a mains supply of potable water, supplemented by bought bottled and spring water from the adjacent hills captured and stored in ex-military containers. (Again an underground cistern was planned).
When the recent floods hit, we found unprecedented amounts of rain had fallen (up to 131mm locally) in just over 24 hours and the subsequent run-off completely overwhelmed the drainage systems. It is not uncommon in these parts for the hill roads to turn into rivers after a storm, but the amount coming off the peaks was phenomenal. Due to our location on a hillside, we were in little danger of standing –floods, but fortunately had sandbagged the ventilation bricks and doorways to deal with the expected run off. Even so, the bags were in danger of being overtopped by the sheer volume of water. This caught us somewhat by surprise, never before had we needed to cover these points.
The mains water supply is electrically pumped throughout the area, so it is not unknown for it to fail when the power goes down. We had sufficient water available to deal with what was thankfully a short-term event. However, the provision of more capacity could only be a good thing especially in the event of a long term incident.Our electricity supply is mains provided, but due to local conditions is fairly unreliable, going off on average once a month. We have back-up for heating, cooking and lighting, with a variety of methods for providing for each. As well as propane heaters and cooking rings, we have wood stored and several camping style cooking sets using differing fuels. Lighting from candles, hurricane and Coleman lamps as well as the ubiquitous MagLites complete the list. Wind up radios are used to keep connected to news services.
This system works well for us in a bug-in situation, with some of the kit doubling for the bug-out bags, in which it is normally kept. It again worked this time and we are currently replenishing supplies ready for the autumn and winter weather.
We thought that given the predicted rainfall, bugging-in would be the best solution and this proved to be so. We also planned to be on site during the event as the lower surrounding area a re prone to flooding and we have been cut-off in the past. Had we been caught out of position, one or more of us would have been stranded. Cars were washed away by previously unheard of levels of rainfall and all exit routes were simply inundated. We have multiple exit routes planned and driven, but all were closed in a very short time.
Several staff members at one of our employers, who also live nearby, had to remain in the building for several days, unable to get out . Even if they could have escaped the building, they would have been unable to return to their homes due to the floodwaters.
Being aware of the potential for the area to become cut off by bad weather, we keep an above average level of consumables in. This includes foodstuffs, medications, hygiene materials etc. We keep little in freezers, having lost the contents once too often when power remained off too long. Most foods are either canned or dried and when the power does fail, we emulate the NCIS agents Jethro Gibbs and Kate Todd and eat the ice-cream before it melts!
When we could get from the property into the nearby town, we found the shelves of the shops were depleted of nearly everything. Some panic buying had apparently occurred, but this was also down to the inability to re-supply them as the entire area was cut off from road and rail links. The disturbing part about this was that this took no more than a couple of days for the shelves to empty. It seems that the ‘just-in-time’ approach also now applies to your local food store and those behind-the-shop front warehouses are no longer filled with more than a day or two’s goods.
What this would mean in a long term situation became all too obvious further down the Severn’s route as large scale efforts had to be mobilised to bring in bottled water and emergency food supplies to stranded people.

In summary, our initial site location work and subsequent ‘prepping’ served us well during this event, but if any of us had been caught out of position, or had we decided at the last minute to ‘bug-out’ as flood levels rose, we might well have found ourselves in a different situation.
No matter what precautions one takes, it is surely down to the Grace of God as to what happens and how well you fare. We are currently planning our next adventure, a move out of the UK to a small patch of land somewhere in the Mediterranean. The planning and preparation for this has been ongoing for several years. More on that in a future article. Keep safe. - Michael in England

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Thursday August 2 2007

Letter Re: Observations on the Flooding in Central England

Sir:
You might have seen the news reports about the flooding in Central England last week. We’re in amongst it, but fortunately (and thanks to forward planning) high enough to have remained dry.
The primary cause of the floods was a prolonged period of exceptionally heavy rain, up to 131mm (c.5-1/2 inches) in one day. This followed hot on the heels of a very wet summer which left the ground sodden an unable to absorb the downpour, which caused flash-flooding as it ran off.
Areas not normally flood-prone have been inundated. Rivers broke their banks and filled their flood-plains.
Now this part of the country is used to flooding, although not in the summer months, as it has two of the UK’s most unstable rivers, the Severn and the Avon, passing through it. This episode, however, has been notable for the sheer amounts and force of the of water and depths of flooding. See this link and this link for some of the BBC's coverage…

The mayhem and disruption caused has been bad enough, but it has been compounded by the behaviour of some which can only be described as moronic. Conversely, the bravery of many, both in the response services and the public, has been humbling to see.
The floods caused chaos with the transport links, with railway lines and roads under several feet of water, even the M5 and M50 motorways (our equivalent to freeways) were closed after they disappeared under anything up to a foot of floodwater. This caused huge tailbacks with several thousand people stranded for up to twenty hours in their vehicles. One woman went into labour whilst in the jam on the M5 and the emergency services were unable to reach her either by ambulance or helicopter because of the conditions. Fortunately a truck-driver stuck near to her car realised the situation and used his vehicle to force a way through the water and the traffic to tow the woman’s car to the ambulance. He then apparently had to tow the ambulance as it too had become overwhelmed by the water. They managed to get the woman to hospital in time for the child to be born in the dry.
Towns and villages have been cut off for several days with residents needing rescue by boat or helicopter as the waters rose so quickly. As is always the case, some residents opt to stay with their property and many of these had to be rescued later as levels continued to rise.
The situation has been made worse by the failure of mains services; electricity and water plant were flooded, even though they were sited above normal flood levels. A water treatment plant was overwhelmed and engineers are having to wait till flood levels drop sufficiently for them to get in and assess the damage. It is estimated that mains water will be off for at least two weeks. This has resulted in the water company having to import bottled water into the area for drinking purposes and, when the floodwaters dropped sufficiently, the placing of water bowsers to enable people to obtain clean water for sanitation. Sadly, although not surprisingly, there have been cases of people vandalising the bowsers, by breaking open the taps and even by polluting the contents. There is one confirmed case of someone urinating into a life saving tank. Looting has become a problem in areas that have been evacuated, forcing police to be diverted from rescue to deal with the crimes. There was an attempt to steal a length of temporary flood barrier, supposedly for its high scrap value. It is perhaps a pity that the thieves were thwarted in their attempt as on the other side of the barrier was several feet of floodwater.
Shops outside the affected zone have seen their entire supplies of water, milk and bread bought out by ‘enterprising’ individuals who later tried to sell them at highly inflated prices to the stranded people. Fortunately the police dealt with this unsavoury bunch and the practice has all but ceased.It is now just a week since the worst downpour, although the unseasonal rains continue to add to the misery. It took considerably less than a week, however, for the infrastructure to break down. With no water or electricity, empty shops and no means of re-supply, many people were in dire straits within a couple of days. The elderly, infirm and those with young families were, and in many cases still are, in deep trouble.
For families who could remain in their homes, or who have since returned, to areas which are still without power and mains water, basic sanitation is an increasing problem. Toilet flushing has to be rationed, clothes washing is virtually impossible and personal hygiene requires a level of thought and discipline that few are used to. One woman in her forties was seen on the television stating that she thought it appalling that the authorities had not been round to each home to ‘tell us what to do’. Personal responsibility and the thought that maybe the ‘authorities’ had other things on their mind at the time did not seem to enter her thinking.As the swollen rivers send the excess waters downstream the floods, power outages and disruption travel along with them.

There has been some respite from the rains which has allowed the levels upstream to drop, and flooding to recede, but at the time of writing (Friday 27th July) more heavy rains are forecast for Saturday night and key personnel have been placed on stand-by within the response services. Further flooding is predicted as the ground is still sodden and unable to absorb any more water. Whilst writing this first report, the post has got through and I’ve received my copy of "Patriots" from the lovely people at Amazon. The opening quotation from Gene Roddenberry makes a far better ending than any I could come up with: ‘Nuclear war is not necessary to cause a breakdown of our society……their water supply comes from hundreds of miles away and any interruption of that, or food, or power for any period of time you’re going to have riots in the streets. Our society is so fragile, so dependent on (the) interworking of things…"

Postscript:
This has been the largest real-time test of our prepping to date. We live in a fairly isolated spot and power outages are common, but this time we have been cut-off by the floodwaters and have been thrown, albeit for a short time, upon our own resources.
Our decision was to bug-in as we believed we would fare best here; the location was chosen carefully although with some compromise due to the need to be near places of employment.
That said, it seems everyone, us included, were surprised by the sheer amounts of rain – the most in living memory in the region – and just how quickly transport and communications failed. Had we bugged out in the midst of it, we would very likely been refugees ourselves. When the recovery phase is fully underway, we will re-appraise our planning and handling of the event. Remember, no plan survives first contact..Keep safe. - Michael in England

JWR Adds: I find it amazing that in the midst of this crisis, so many people are letting the copious rainwater from their roof downspouts go to waste. They just don't have the survival mindset. At the very least, they could be using rainwater for clothes washing, bathing, and toilet flushing. With a water filter, they could also use rainwater for drinking and cooking. Take a minute to read his piece, by way of SHTF Daily: Living life without any tap water Take special note of the final quote in the article: "We also have to use bottled water to flush down the toilet, which is a waste, but we don't have any choice." Common sense, it seems, is all too uncommon.

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Thursday July 5 2007

Letter Re: Some Results From the CDC's Asian Avian Flu Preparedness/Education Budget

Hi Jim,
I'm a regular reader and 10 Cent Challenge contributor. I just wanted to pass on a little info that struck me as very unusual. I live in Louisiana, too close to New Orleans unfortunately. In my mailbox on Saturday, I received a 32 page publication from the Louisiana Dept of Health & Hospitals. It is titled "How You Can Be Prepared for a Flu Pandemic" Individual & Family Handbook.
What do they know that we don't? The state spent $663,594.40 publishing 1,658,986 copies of this Handbook under a grant support from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
This is about the number of households in the state as of the 2000 Census, so I assume each household will be mailed one. I intend to wait about a week and take a poll of my fellow workers to see if anyone received and/or read the publication. My gut tells me most will simply pitch it with the junk mail and not
even read it. The book is very basic, but it does make an attempt to raise awareness and encourage preparedness and educate on a subject of which most people are ignorant. The KISS principle, I'm sure. If nothing else it could be a good tool to help persuade the "blind" to consider the value of preparation-especially skeptical spouses and close family members. Maybe you have seen this handbook or something similar. Here is a link to the publisher. (Item # ps92230)
Keep up the good work. We appreciate all that you and the family do to keep the information flowing. Thanks and God Bless, - GMac

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Wednesday June 27 2007

Letter Re: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina and Indiscriminate Weapons Confiscation

Dear Jim and Family,
Some months ago, our president signed into law a bipartisan bill that protects Americans from gun seizure during a disaster. In theory, every emergency worker (including police and National Guard) knows they cannot take guns from citizens, period. In theory. In practice its far more likely that we can all expect: the worst case scenario. This is uncomfortable as you have no idea if the cop down the street is honest or a bully who's taking guns because he can, or because he's been ordered by by his boss, or a buddy on the force with plans. I have encountered crooked cops. They really do exist, not just in movies. They do a real disservice to honest cops and endanger lives but investigations are hampered by the code of silence and Internal Affairs can only do so much without getting murdered undercover.[JWR Adds: Thankfully, the vast majority of police are honest and trustworthy.]

I'm wondering if your encounter with the police is about to make you a victim or not leaves you with the unpleasant choice of either losing your ability to defend yourself during the most critical time or deciding to be proactive and run the risk of dying for it, or even killing an honest cop by mistake. Following Hurricane Katrina, the Federal government and National Guard behaved in a shameful manner, disarming people trying to protect themselves. The result is this law, which probably won't be followed. How would you enforce it? Take them to court? If you survive, great. But if you really needed the gun, why did you survive, weakening your own case. If you really did need it you're too dead to sue.

When the cop says give me your gun what will you do? Do you have a backup? Do you have an argument that will keep him from taking it? Does the cop know or care that taking your gun during this disaster is a Federal crime? And will he harm or imprison you for pointing it out? These are ugly questions, but you had better think long and hard what your options are and what is the appropriate response.
Best, - InyoKern

JWR Replies: You are correct that H.R.5441 has been signed into law, (becoming Public Law No: 109-295). So it would be considered an extrajurisdictional act for any officer to "temporarily or permanently seize, or authorize seizure of, any firearm the possession of which is not prohibited under Federal, State, or local law, other than for forfeiture in compliance with Federal law or as evidence in a criminal investigation" during "a declared disaster." By now, all sworn officers at all levels should have been briefed on this law, and its existence has surely been added to the curricula of police academies. In most states, by exceeding jurisdictional authority, officers shed their "Sovereign Immunity" from prosecution and/or civil suit as individuals. (Up to a $100,000 per Title 42, USC.) In many states, sworn officers sued in this manner for damages in their personal or individual capacities are classed as "persons" (rather that state officials). See: Hafer v. Melo, S.Ct., 112 S.Ct. 358, (19, 116 L.Ed.2d 301 91). And in many states, by doing so they even put themselves in the same category as a common criminal. To wit, extrajurisdictional seizure of property constitutes common theft. (Technically, you would be able to place an officer under citizen's arrest. But I wonder what circumstances would allow you to safely do so.)

The wise course of action during a disaster is to studiously avoid confrontations with anyone in law enforcement that is exceeding their authority. And, if you are unfortunate and do get your guns seized, then have a backup set of guns cached nearby. They can't take what they can't find. BTW, this is just another example of the value of redundant logistics. Don't be belligerent or come to blows over this issue. Worry about recourse in the courts later. In the short term, your key responsibility is to protect your family members and see them safely through the crisis. And you can't do that if you are behind bars.

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Tuesday June 26 2007

Letter Re: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina and Indiscriminate Weapons Confiscation

Dear Mr. Rawles,
First off, I would like to thank you for writing the novel "Patriots" and starting SurvivalBlog. My dad sent me your book in the mail and told me to read it. Being a fan of Tom Brown-ish survival literature, I decided to give it a try. I read it in one night, starting at about 8 pm and finishing at 3 in the morning. Truly, my world view has changed. I have immediately started making preparations---getting my Bug Out Bag together, my Bug Out Routes planned and starting to practice some of the skills sets I've let fall by the wayside recently.
I am a full time college student and collegiate cross country and track runner at a school in the great state of Tennessee, but have had the benefit of being raised in a preparedness oriented family in a
southwestern region of rural Montana. I was at school when [Hurricane] Katrina hit and remember the close-to-home impact it had on many of my friends who lived in the New Orleans area. Our school sent relief teams to New Orleans immediately afterwards, with shipments of food and water. At the time, my perception of the Katrina disaster was largely shaped by the major media
outlets. A humanitarian crisis it surely was, but I never realized the uglier side of the story until recently.
It seems that disasters and emergencies bring out the best and the worst in people. Having read extensively many of the SurvivalBlog entries and perused the Internet for stories and first-hand accounts of surviving the Katrina disaster, I discovered that the population of New Orleans could be broken down into four "classes" of people during the evacuation/hurricane/post-disaster crisis.
The first class of people was composed of a small group of individuals and families who had plenty of food, water and protection stored away to either weather the storm, or to travel to a safer location without sacrificing their safety.
The second class of people was composed of a larger section of the populace who decided to leave New Orleans or evacuate their area and had no food, water or self-protection supplies built up before-hand. These became the highway refugees, or the refugees huddled in the Superdome. Some were successful in escaping safely, many were not.
The third class of people was composed of people who decided to stay in New Orleans, without the necessary preparations, and planned on either the government helping them or on obtaining supplies from their vacant neighbor's homes and Wal-Mart. These were looters, thieves and murderers.
The fourth class of people was composed of law enforcement and National Guardsmen who stayed in New Orleans to try and maintain order. They were usually not successful.
In my analysis, everyone in the first class of people were prepared to handle whatever came their way. They were good, hearty men and women, with respect for God and a practical view of the world. In order to survive, they just needed to minimize contact with all three of the other classes of people, namely the refugees, the looters and the police.
The refugees were desperate people, some willing to kill for gasoline so that they could rescue family members. While not necessarily bad people, they were victims of the circumstances. Avoidance of these people was relatively easy, as long as one stayed off of main highways and out of refugee concentration areas. One reader posted a letter on this blog about his experience with his dog and pickup filled with gas-cans on his way back to secure his gun store. The looters were also desperate, but not necessarily refugees. They weren't fleeing, but were actively preying on people and businesses to
sustain themselves. These people were a lot like the "Mutant Zombie Bikers" [often mentioned by SurvivalBlog readers]. Mostly active in New Orleans, these looters were to be feared and avoided mostly by the prepared and self-sufficient people.
The police were able to direct traffic and enforce the law in the early stages of the disaster, but by the time traffic spilled out into the opposing lanes and looters really started opening up on their rampage,
they were relatively helpless. One thing that much of the public is not aware of is the indiscriminate"martial law" tactics undertaken by many police/SWAT and National Guardsmen during and after the evacuation. While their actions in arresting and confiscating weapons may have been justified in trying to control the looting problem, many honest, prepared men and women who were "holding the fort" had their homes invaded, searched and any and all weapons confiscated. In one of the parishes near New Orleans, the police used boats to pull over riverine traffic and search and confiscate any weapons found, often without providing receipts for the weapons confiscated. Obviously, for a prepared survivalist who was protecting their property, Bugging Out, or trying to provide humanitarian/rescue assistance, this was a major problem. After watching this short documentary on 2nd Amendment violations in [the aftermath of Hurricane] Katrina, which every law-abiding American owes it to themselves to watch, I have realized that in a TEOTWAWKI or near-TEOTWAWKI type disaster, even law enforcement can be more of hindrance than a help. The indiscriminate firearm confiscations that occurred in the wake of Katrina are very worrisome indeed.
In planning my Bug-Out-Plan (with multiple, redundant routes...one by foot if need be: yes, all 2,000 miles of it back home to Montana), I fully intend to avoid law enforcement like the plague. As [the] Doug Carlton [character] said in Patriots, "Roads are for people who like to get ambushed." Similarly, getting searched by the police in a TEOTWAWKI type situation is something you definitely want to avoid. There may be cops out there with their heads screwed on straight who can discern an honest citizen from a looter, but the risk of running into a hotshot and losing the means of protecting myself is too great.
I hope all other preparedness men and women take this into account when planning. Oh, and never become a refugee and confine yourself to a refugee camp. - R.D. from southern Tennessee

JWR Replies: The troublemakers in New Orleans came from many races, and surprisingly from both lower class and the lower middle class. It is difficult to stereotype the "looters" when based on the archived news footage it is clear that they represented a fairly wide cross-section of the New Orleans populace. Safe distance from major population centers is the key to survival during a widespread disaster. Fewer people means fewer problems. Most of the armed confrontations will take place in the big cities. Yes, lives will be lost far and wide WTSHTF, but the vast majority of the violence will be in the cities.

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Sunday June 24 2007

Letter Re: Convincing the Unconvinced that TEOTWAWKI is Possible

James Rawles;
I enjoy your blog and wish I had more time to review [all of the content]. I plan on getting the best of the blog when my funds permit.
I saw the "Convincing the Unconvinced" post and thought I would reply.
I like what another reader recommended on bringing people around to preparing and hope you have a section dedicated to this subject somewhere on your blog.
Pushing a lot of information too fast will be counterproductive. They need to learn and decide for themselves to be prepared, and how prepared [they want] to be.
MJS could try getting Government-issued preparedness brochures. They are available from the American Red Cross and The Department of Homeland Security. This literature shows the need to be prepared for various situations. The information coming from a source that the doubtful will consider "mainstream" may be what they need to convince them to be prepared. You can work from there to discuss with them all the types of potential disasters (man made and natural) that can occur in your area and what can be done to be prepared.

Preparedness gifts are also a way to get the doubtful thinking about preparedness. I have given first aid kits, power inverters, Flashlights, Baygen radios, vehicle 72 hour kits, Preparedness books--some published by the Red Cross and Homeland Security--as Christmas gifts to plant the seeds of preparedness thinking. With the bird flu threat looming, I am considering a long term food supply for a month or less and publications on what you should know about bird flu for this Christmas. I am looking at water purification equipment for the following Christmas.
At least this gives family members a chance to survive a short term event. I know I cannot prepare for them and they have not considered what to do if the big cities that they live in melt down. But I can give them the information to make them think and to help them if they ask for it. - Ron from Ohio

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Tuesday June 19 2007

Letter Re: Some Interesting Australian Web Sites

James:
I found the three following Australian web sites while surfing the web. The AusSurvivalist site led to the second two: Australian Government information concerning the London bombing and how Australia needs to prepare, and the Australian Government Emergency Management web site. Regards, Bill N.

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Wednesday May 30 2007

Hurricane Preparedness, by MFA

I'd like to share a couple of things I've learned through the recent hurricane seasons in Florida, being hit directly by one, indirectly by three or four more (I've lost count). The following assumes you’re staying put, not bugging out. Typically my wife will take the kids and bug out, while I stay home for security and damage control if needed. This can also apply to some of the severe storms that other parts of the country experience throughout the year.
1. Water - In Florida, I travel with a case of water in the back of my car. You never know. In the off season, we use up the stored bottled water from the last year, and right about now [--May--], do a replenish. Our typical storage water "in season" is about the size of a pallet, four feet high. Off season we may get down to three or four cases. We also have a “Big Berkey” to filter the water from the lake behind our house if things are down for more than a week or so.
2. Food - Freeze dried long term storage food (Mountain House or equivalent) is absolutely required. The stores will be cleaned out in the two or three days before the storm arrives, and the grocers stop shipping food in at the last minute to cut their losses in case the buildings are knocked down. Immediately after the storm passes you're a fool to go out on the roads with the trees and downed power lines and by the time they are cleared, the stores open on a cash basis because the power is out, and it's dry goods only. All frozen and refrigerated food is discarded so they won't get sued for selling spoiled food. In your house, at the start of the hurricane season it’s prudent to work down your refrigerated foods and fill the space in the freezers with gallon milk jugs full of water. This will keep the remaining food from spoiling if the power is only out for a few days.
3. Cooking – We have several stoves that work when nothing else does. The best one for indoors is a butane stove that I picked up at a gun show for about twenty bucks. Butane cans are available, and they store indefinitely. I’d not use any combustion appliance indoors without ventilation, but after the storm the windows can be opened, and there is plenty of breeze coming in around the corrugated storm shutters, which still provide some measure of security. We also have a couple of Coleman stoves that run on either propane or coleman fuel, but those are strictly outdoor units.
4. Cash - Have a few hundred bucks cash on hand in the beginning of the season, and increase it to a thousand or more if you can once things are in full swing. There is usually a run on the ATMs when the storm is bearing down on the area, and when the power is out, it's done.
5. Fuel - If there is even a hint of a storm, top off all vehicles and keep them full until the threat has passed. It can take two weeks to get gasoline into the area and replenish the empty stations after the run on gas that happens when the storm is bearing down. Also, keep up on maintenance of your vehicles. It would truly suck to blow a radiator hose in traffic while trying to evacuate. (I’ve seen that happen – I think it was [Hurricane] Wilma, a guy from Miami was evacuating through the Fort Myers area and had [his engine] overheated with his small child in the car. I stopped with my work truck and we filled up his radiator with my drinking water supply, and I left him with a half case of bottled water, which was what I had left. His terror at being at the mercy of both the weather and his unwillingness to prepare was obvious).
6. Shelter - You need to buy the stuff to watertight your house before the storm, not after. Buy enough tarps to completely cover your roof - do the math and figure it out. In the off season the tarps are on clearance, pick up a few spares. They don't go bad [if kept out of sunlight] - stick them on a shelf in your garage.
7. Storm shutters - either cut and number plywood to cover the glass or install the mounting tracks and have the corrugated metal panels ready to go. Do this on the off season, not the day before, as you want to do the initial exercise once and be done with it We put our shutters up about a day before the storm is supposed to hit - sometimes at the last minute. Our family can do the job in about 40 minutes in the pouring rain.
8. Tools and batteries - Charge everything at the first indication that your area is targeted, then keep them on trickle charge to maintain full capacity. I've got a battery powered Sawzall, but with two discharged batteries I might as well use a hand saw. The same goes for battery powered drills – a dead battery renders them useless.
9. Lighting – As for wind up lights, check them pre-season. I bought a wind up light a year ago and while it still lights up, the battery is shot - only lights when I crank it. I only paid ten or twelve bucks for it, but it’s junk. April is the month where the battery powered lights are checked to make sure they work, and a fresh supply of batteries are stocked.
10. Security - If you think you might need force to defend yourself, get your concealed carry license (CCL), get your practice in and buy your rifles, handguns and ammunition well before season. The state has been known to declare a state of emergency and suspend the sales of guns and ammo when a storm is coming. Also, the gun dealers will cut a deal in the off season, but "sticker [price] is sticker [price]" when a storm is coming. Not gouging, just no breaks. Gun shows are your friend, as you can really shop and compare.
This will get you through the storm and the immediate aftermath.

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Monday May 21 2007

Letter Re: Mercenaries a Post-TEOTWAWKI Threat

Dear Jim,
Looking at the concept of mercenaries post TEOTWAWKI [mentioned in Ron's recently posted letter], I'm not convinced there is a valid threat there.
There are a lot of myths floating around about Blackwater specifically. I have several friends on contract to them in various capacities from maintenance to pilot to executive protection.
The relevant facts are that they are highly trained, highly paid (up to $1000 a day, depending on assignment and location), held to high standards of qualification (must be honorably discharged veterans, no criminal background and with relevant skill sets) and do specifically fall under the UCMJ when contracted to the military or in association with the military (including executive protection details on State Dept missions in Iraq). I keep hearing these stories of beer-bellied yahoos who don't answer to anyone, but I've yet to see anything to substantiate that apart from vague allegations in the press.
Obviously, if a government collapses, it will not be hiring troops in that price range unless it's paying gold or foreign cash. Even if it could, convincing politicians that 20 out of country mercs are better than 100 local recruits is a long shot.
As to low-paid, second rate mercs, history is full of them. They tend to be more hassle to the paymaster than any enemy.
I can't see what they'd be hired to do other than guard government installations or private facilities with the desire and the money. "We're hiring you to go rough up the civilians" doesn't seem either cost effective, worthwhile, or doable, as in small groups they'd be readily defeated by numbers. And if things are that bad, I won't be going anywhere near a government facility.
The condottieri of the Middle Ages were specifically small bands with training and weapons equal to the small local forces they faced--enough to defeat a village or small town. Without lots of supplies, any modern equivalent would just be another gang of armed men. In this case, armed professionals who'd prefer to dig in and take control of an area, rather than be roving bands. It's quite likely a few of them read survivalblog, and they're hardly the enemy. If such groups existed, it would be worth allying with them to build a community. Nor would they be likely to pillage an area, as it means less resources in future.
It is possible, in case of a total collapse, that such would become feudal lords. However, that would last only as long as they maintained the good will of the locals and had ammunition. Modern systems of government are far more effective and efficient. - Michael Z. Williamson

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Monday May 14 2007

Poll Results: Why are You Preparing to Survive?

Here is the second round of responses to this question: Those who are well educated enough to see a societal collapse of some sort or another in the making fall into two groups, the merrymakers and the preparers. The merrymakers don't see life worth living post-SHTF, so they live it up now. We on SurvivalBlog are the preparers and have chosen to survive, but why? Our children? To rebuild civilization? Because the collapse will only be temporary? Because we can and we're stubborn with a stronger than normal will to survive? The following is the second batch of responses. A few of the following poll responses exceeded the one paragraph limit, but they had substance so I decided to post them, regardless:

Jim,
The survival seed was planted at when as a young boy I entered our Ohio basement "fruit cellar" and noticed the stock of canned goods, candles and other necessities. My mother explained that we might need the items if the "weather turned bad". We never did need those items in the 1950s but the idea stuck.

For my family [living] in Alaska, it just makes sense to provide yourself with comfort items should the SHTF. We have a self sufficient setup which is accented by a complete, mobile camping outfit and further enhanced with ultralight backpacking gear. We are experienced in the use of this gear.

Silly as it may sound, if hard times come we do not want to be inconvenienced. That is the simple answer. And that includes begging others for help and standing in line to ask that the government do something.

Most important, we have incorporated preparedness into a normal enjoyable lifestyle. And it just plain feels right.

--

Life is tough. Challenges abound. Success is a drug that there is no anti-dote, only garbage that clouds the “vision” to succeed.
Why prepare? When reading the responses to this poll, I noticed a common reference to a “near term” disaster such as “Katrina”. This truly is a short term disaster. There is no reason that most of us can’t survive any short term disaster. Let’s look back to the late 1920s and early 1930s, or better yet, back to the original settler’s challenges, those were Longer term, affecting several generations. Why do we make reference to the near term problems rather than the historic obstacles? I think it is a protective mechanism that allows us to relate to “recent history” rather than “necessary history”. Imagining a multi-generational collapse I admit is not in my thinking, (to protect my fragile mind). But the labors of my grandparents and their grandparents are not to trivial to be memorialized. History repeats itself.
In the late twenties, a vast percentage of the population was “semi-self sufficient” and lived in the rural area’s trading with neighbors for the items needed that they did not produce themselves. Fast forward 80 years and a scary few minorities produce the knowledge to be productive and have the land to do so. Our forefathers could plan and survive even though difficult at times, they did it. How will we as city dwellers with no productive skills for the basics survive a similar economic tragedy? History repeats itself.
If more of us do not prepare, the likelihood of reverting back to the wagon train era is inevitable. If we can do more now, it is prudent to the survival of this great nation. This Nation is deserving of all of our love, and the things that we don’t agree with can be politely demonstrated against, or we can use the power we wield by voting for change. History repeats itself.
This country feeds the world, yet we squander it away in the pursuit of riches by greed. What a disappointment to our forefathers to have what others want, move it at all costs to further one’s pocket book, and not hold enough back to help our family and friends. If everyone in this nation had a year’s supply of food, then the vulnerability of this nation would greatly lessen, (see the history of the noose that was placed around Russia and the tens of millions that perished because of such starvation) After a “collapse”, our productivity would be multi-generational leaps rather than microscopic advance, if in fact we had the basics squared away. To get this great country back on her feet, we need to first, take care of our needs so if the tragedy of life happens, our focus can be productive, focused, and our return to glory inevitable. History repeats itself.
Am I am optimist? Am I a pessimist? Am I aware of how things really are so delicate? Do I love the country I live in enough to help bring her to her feet?
Be part of the solution, not part of the problem,…. An old saying is: “…problems always work themselves out…” I don’t want to be “worked out”, I want to help re-build, and not stress in the basic needs of my family and friends, I want what I have now, the ability to do much, and hopefully be surrounded by like minded friends no matter what the economic situation of this country is. I love this country, I love my family, I love the teachings of history even though history repeats itself. I love what I have learned, and pray for what I have not. God Bless the USA.

--

Jim,
It occurs to me as I read the responses to this question that while I share most of the reasons I am reading, including it is kind of fun, I also fear that I have within myself the capacity to do great evil if the need to provide for my family in times of trouble comes and I am not prepared. In fact this is one of the questions I ask people whom I approach when they tell me something vague about being okay. I ask them if they will really be able to sit by and watch as their children starve? I get interesting looks and statements.

--
I first became interested in the whole survivalist concept as an ER doctor, early in my career in the late 80's. What I saw is that the government cannot help people prevent problems, it only "cleans up" and tallies data. The police are the best examples of this (call the police when a burglar enters your home and they will gladly come and take a picture of your dead body). Although I had hunted since childhood, I only became interested in concealed carry, etc., after seeing case after case in the ER where people died or were maimed, while hoping/waiting for the cops to come. The cops did come, but always after the bad guys had done their deed. So much for that.
Over the past decade, my lack of faith in government "Helping" has grown more pervasive (in part due to working as a DOD doctor during Desert Storm I) and now focuses on Peak Oil (about which the government will never inform you in any truthful way until its too late) and the US Dollar (which the government and its goons (e.g. Kudlow et al on CNBC) say is just fine, along with the economy as a whole). There will be no functional oil by 2030, and by 2015 (that's just 8 years away), we'll see $10 per gallon at the tank, if we're luck and if China/India do not grow any faster than they already are.
All h*ll will have broken lose by then, as nearly everything we use comes from oil or is related to it (think antibiotics, clothing, food, not to mention our incessant "happy motoring" to go to work and take kids to/from school and other activities). We will not be able to depend upon transport of veggies from 1000's of miles away and may have trouble even getting water, depending upon where you get yours, just for starters. The sheeple, as another writer on this forum pointed out, will become wolves. The goal is to be a better prepared wolf, with stores of food, medicines, farming and mechanical equipment, guns and ammo.
Oh yes, the US Dollar (USD); it has dropped about 30% in the past three years. Yes 30%! China has announced that it will diversify out of the USD, as has most of OPEC, Russia, et al. Only Saudi and Japan continue to support the $USD for oil scheme, and that won't last much longer. When the USD drops below 80 on the USD index, that's it; we'll see 30 or 40 within a year or so, and that will be a 50%+ devaluation from present levels. If you look at every country in the world that has had its currency devalued (always, BTW a sure result of over use of the printing press), social degeneration has followed. Ordinarily, governments become totalitarian when that happens, but I suspect that the Peak Oil situation will prevent our government from doing anything but jawboning. Cops won't be able to enforce anything at $10/gallon gas.
Peak Oil + USD devaluation = total social/economic breakdown. And, BTW, I agree with other writers who have pointed out that its "pie in the sky" to think we'll "simply return to 1890 and live happily ever after." 1890 technology could not support a highly urbanized, work challenged and bloated population like ours. 10,000 BC is more likely, only with pockets of technology, and ammo, and a much smaller population. The only question left is when, not if, and when is likely within a decade.

--

Because no one with any sense of self respect likes being a loser.

--

Hi Jim,
My family prepares for bad times because it is inexcusable not to prepare. Bad things happen all the time - job loss, illness, accidents, etc., - as well as all of the possible natural and man-made
disasters that could occur. Preparation is insurance that your family will get through a rough time. Not preparing is a deficiency of character and neglectful to your spouse and kids. Being able to
survive more easily through bad times will greatly improve your physical and mental situation if it happens. In addition, you will be in better shape to help others should you need to. If nothing ever
happens in my lifetime I will be thankful and will enjoy having a bit less stress in my life because I did everything I could to keep my family safe and protected.

--

Beside the fact that I've read the last chapter in The Book (Revelation), there's peak oil & the coming die-off as petrochemical resources become scarce, population stresses, a government that seems hell-bent on totalitarianism of one flavor or the other (I keep praying that cooler heads will prevail, but the past couple decades' experience doesn't build much hope.), external political & economic turmoil, pollution, terrorism, a resurgent Russia, Chinese war drums, froggy dictators with nukes, a weakening dollar, the list goes on and on. The worst part is each one of these either feeds off or feeds into the others. I'm betting that my children & grandchildren will live in a much different world than the one I grew up in. My prayers are that it will be a better one -- but I also realize (and in some cases, I'm very thankful for the fact) that sometimes God says "No!" So, I prepare -- and I attempt to prepare my sons to live in a world that looks more like their Grandparents' world during the Great Depression than the one I grew up in. Keep a stiff upper lip & watch your Six!

--

First off, I love your novel "Patriots". Regarding the survey: We prepare because of the core morality we have: that we aren't victims and we don't want to depend upon the government for our welfare since that would make us slaves. I believe every other political view we hold comes out of this core belief, be it regarding the 1st and 2nd Amendments, welfare reform, public education, taxes, business regulation, Federal Reserve policy, etc.

--

As to your query about why planning and striving to survive. At first I paused and asked myself that same question...Why Survive? For what purpose? What will I do when/if I do,
and when will I know that I have "Survived". I guess that initially it came down to personal and immediate family survival. Our extended family is fairly large and we are, what I consider to be, relatively "close" as a family unit.
Although my immediate family considers me "alarmist" and "extreme" I have still been planning and stockpiling as best that I can (afford) for all of us when the SHTF. (Whether the next "emergency" is natural or man-made.) My personal survival is only to ensure the safety and well-being of my daughter and to stand as a resister/witness against the "Anti-Christ".

National survival (the sovereignty of our Constitutionally-based government) is doomed by the fact that the globalist cabal have already (over the last couple of centuries) put into place people, politico-financial-industrial networks and the military might to enforce their will, that resistance will be short lived and futile. Our best effort will be to resist honestly and honorably being witnesses against the evil that is closing its trap upon the unsuspecting mass of sheeple. Although, conceptually, I can understand their reasoning, I cannot in good conscience support their end result.

Survival, not just being a biological instinct, but in humans - a choice, we are presented with not only mere physical requirements and consequences, but also moral and ethical repercussions as a result of our choices. The faculty of conscience, whether intact or corrupted, is a characteristic of God imbued into mankind to act as a "moral compass" to influence and guide one's actions. Our mind's/personality/character's (the soul's) decisions and consequent actions are the basis upon which we shall be judged. So survival is not just a matter of how we achieved it, but also how well we achieved it.

Survival isn't just to get by, but to be able to provide the basis by which our "way" of living (hopefully by the freedoms outlined in our Constitution) continues into (at least) the next generation. We must do as much as we can and as long as we are able. My personal "religious"/"reality" views are that we all will "survive"; (continue on as beings) and that our further existence will be far greater than that which we experience now.

--

I prepare because I am responsible for my family. I also realize that even if our government is able to respond, they will not be able to do so immediately. Just look at the response times for police and fire departments. Three to ten minutes is not unusual and that is when the phone system is working and there is no snow storm or other disaster such as [Hurricane] Katrina.

--

I will survive because I'm too mean to die. Survival is a choice. Many people choose to die rather than suffer the hardships that survival often requires. In the next 10-to-15 years, the world population will almost certainly decrease by 3-5 billion people for various reasons (mainly famine related to Peak Oil). I plan to be one of the people who live. I don't have much interest in religion, and I have no interest in leadership. People want to be sheep: let them follow someone else to their doom. I will do what is necessary to survive and hopefully enjoy the process as much as possible while I quietly duck away from trouble others feel compelled to fight head on (and die in place). If you die for a cause, you have failed at survival. Always remember that.

--

Because when I first heard the story of "The Three Little Pigs" I got it. Make you house strong so the wolf can't blow it down. Do it right from the beginning and the wolves wont get you. I have had a Survivalist mentality since as early as I can remember. I think people have to be blind and deaf to all around them not to catch on to the obvious, our lifestyle in America is not stable. And no culture/society has ever been stable. All the great ancient cities failed, USA is no dif