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How To Prepare for Radiation Emergencies, by KLK
Scenario 1
You are sitting at your retreat, enjoying the scenery, when you hear on the
radio that there has just been a nuclear weapon that has detonated in a contiguous
State . You decide to run into your shelter. After a few days in there,
you start to wonder when it might be safe to come out. You also wonder if you
would have been better off evacuating and getting as far away from the radiation
source as possible.
A radiation disaster is a scenario for which we must be prepared. It may be
from a radiological source, such as a nuclear reactor accident, or from nuclear
devices, such as a nuclear weapon.
Much of what we know about radiation exposure comes from accidents such as
Chernobyl [nuclear power plant disaster] and [the bombing of] Hiroshima [and
Nagasaki]. With the nuclear reactor accident in Chernobyl (1986), 70% of the
contamination fell
on 26%
of Belarus.
400,000 people were evacuated
and 50,000 km squared was restricted and removed from use. The isotopes included
Cs137, Cs134, Sr90, I131, and Pu239, with an estimated 114 Million Curies entering
the environment. Untoward effects from this accident included 31 initial deaths,
300 injuries and hospitalizations, 150,000 abortions, $ 3 billion spent in
emergency response, $500 million spent to compensate Italian farmers, 10,000
reindeer slaughtered, and an increase in cancer (mostly thyroid cancer, many
years after the incident).
It is estimated that if a large US city (population 1 million) was hit by a
10-Kiloton (KT) nuclear device, that it would produce the following casualties:
>13,000 prompt fatalities
Approximately 114,000 expectant fatalities (>830 cSv)
Approximately 90,000 requiring ICU support (530-830 cSv)
Approximately 141,000 requiring either ICU or minimum care ward (300-530 cSv)
Approximately 150,000 requiring a minimum care ward (150-300 cSv)
Approximately 159,000 requiring outpatient therapy (70-150cSv)
Approximately 128,000 requiring health monitoring (25-70cSv)
Approximately 212,000 worried [but] well (<25 cSv)
The healthcare system is not ready or able to cope with this
magnitude of casualties.
That brings us to: What should you do?
The mechanism of injury from a nuclear device is 3 fold: blast, heat and radiation.
Assuming a 10-KT burst, people within a 0.55 km radius of the explosion fall
within a “blast injury circle” and have a high immediate fatality
rate. People within a 0.9 km radius of the explosion fall within a “prompt
radiation circle”, and people within a 2.1 km radius fall within the “thermal
circle” and suffer 2nd degree burns. If you are outside of these 3 circles,
you may suffer from radiation fallout. The amount of fallout you are exposed
to is determined by 3 factors: length of time exposed, distance from the original
explosion, and how much shielding there is between you and the radioactive source.
To minimize radiation exposure, you will want to reduce your time exposed, increase
your distance from the source and have as much shielding as possible. This can
lead to a dilemma if faced with this scenario: should you evacuate your retreat
(increase your distance from the source), or should you stay and go into your
shelter (increase your shielding)? The answer to this question will depend on
whether or not you have a shelter, how far away from the initial source you are,
the strength of the nuclear device,
and the weather conditions. Even if you have a shelter, you may be forced to
evacuate due to your proximity to the radiation source (Remember Chernobyl where
50,000 square kilometers were deemed unusable). It can take many months and sometimes
years to clean up after a Radiation Event. Most people don’t have shelters
that will sustain them for that long. Unfortunately, if faced with this scenario,
you will have limited time to make your decision, for if you decide to evacuate
you will want to do it immediately to reduce your exposure time, and before the
roads get jammed with people. Thus, it would be useful to know a few basic equations
to help you make your decision.
Radiation exposure follows the inverse square law- exposure reduction is proportional
to the inverse square of the distance. Radiation is measured in Gray. If the
source produces 10 Gy/hour at 1 meter, the exposure will be 2.5 Gy/hour at 2
meters (10 divided by 2 squared). The worst case scenario could produce up to
50-100 Gy/hour at the site of the explosion. With this information, you can calculate
your exposure based on how far away you are from the radiation source. You must
also keep in mind the weather conditions. If your calculation reveals a total
body dose of <0.7 Gy, the radiation effect will be minimal, and you should
be safe to stay at your retreat.
Scenario 2
You decided to stay at your retreat with some type of shelter, but after 12 hours
a family member starts vomiting. Should you take them to the hospital which you
know will be full of victims or should you stay isolated?
The key to treating radiation victims is knowing what dose of radiation they
received. All medical decisions are based on the dose estimate.
There are many ways to determine dose of exposure, most of which require a hospital
visit and laboratory tests. Without access to prompt healthcare, the easiest
way to determine dose is to record the time from radiation exposure until the
time the victim starts vomiting. Then use the information below to estimate the
dose the victim received (measured in Gray):
Time To Onset of Vomiting Post Accident/Terrorist Act
| Hours to Vomiting |
Estimated Dose (Gray) |
| 20 |
0.1 |
| 7 |
0.5 |
| 5 |
1 |
| 2 |
5 |
| 1 |
10 |
| 0.8 |
20 |
| 0.5 |
50 |
| 0.3 |
100 |
Use that number for the following interventions:
If they received a dose of < 0.7 Gy, they will not be significantly
affected by the radiation and they do not need to be hospitalized.
If they received a dose of 0.7-5 Gy, their lymphocytes (cells in the blood
that fight infection) will dramatically decrease. This happens within the first
1-2 days and puts them at a very high risk of infection. Their hemoglobin and
red blood cells will also decrease at 30 days after exposure and they will
become very anemic. With good supportive care, the blood counts will recover
by 60 days post exposure. Treatment includes IV fluids, antibiotics and colony
stimulating factors. These are the people who benefit the most from being admitted
to the hospital because they need the colony stimulating factors (which are
not able to be stored at a retreat). My advice would be to take them into the
hospital. If this is not feasible, they must be quarantined for at least 60
days. If they do not get an infection, there is a good chance they will live.
If they were exposed to a dose of 6-15 Gy, the predominant effect will be on
their gastrointestinal system- this means profuse, bloody diarrhea and dehydration,
starting at 5-7 days post exposure. It is also often associated with severe
nausea/vomiting and fever. Treatment includes specific antibiotics, GI nutrition,
IV fluids and early cytokine therapy for 5 or more weeks. These people will
also benefit from hospitalization if feasible. Survival is possible, but unlikely.
If they were exposed to > 15 Gy, the effect will be on their cardiovascular
system and central nervous system. This leads to brain swelling and death within
2-3 days. It is associated with a 100% mortality rate and the best care would
be to provide them with pastoral care and to keep them comfortable. There is
nothing medically that can be done to save their life.
Scenario 3
You decide to make a trip into town to pick up some supplies. It’s around
10 a.m. and you are walking down the street. All of a sudden you hear a loud
explosion and see pieces of shrapnel flying. There are casualties all around
you from the scrap metal. You are thankful that none of it hit you. Then you
hear someone yell “It was a Dirty Bomb!” You think to yourself, “A
Dirty Bomb! What should I do?”
A “Dirty Bomb” is a radiological dispersion device which combines
a conventional explosive with a radioactive material. It is not a nuclear weapon,
nor a weapon of mass destruction; however, it is a weapon of mass disruption.
The impact depends on the type of explosive, amount and type of radioactive
material and the weather conditions.
Immediate deaths or serious injuries would likely result from the explosion
itself. It is unlikely that the radioactive material would kill anyone. The
radioactive material would be dispersed into the air and reduced to relatively
low concentrations. Low level exposure to radioactive contamination could slightly
increase your long term risk of cancer (mostly thyroid cancer). There would
be significant impact by causing fear, panic and disruption. Clean up would
be costly and could take many months.
Consider this example: In Goiania, Brazil, 1987, 1375 Ci of Cs-137 spread throughout
a neighborhood. It was an accident (not a terrorist event), and yet it caused
mass panic and fear. Ultimately, 112,000 people were screened, out of which
249 had detectable contamination. Four victims died within four weeks and 20
were hospitalized. Site remediation took months to complete (Oct 1987-March
1988). Can you imagine the impact if it had been a planned event?
Dirty bombs can expose one to radiation both externally and internally. Internal
contamination can occur through inhalation (nose, mouth) or absorption (wound
in the skin). The radiation is typically deposited in the thyroid, liver, lung
and bone. It is not acutely life threatening.
When dealing with a victim of radiation contamination, act as if they were
contaminated with raw sewage. Protect yourself with clothes, mask, and gloves
and use standard medical emergency procedures (Airway/Breathing/Circulation).
Decontaminate after the victim is stabilized. Removing their clothing and washing
with soap and water is 95%+ effective at decontaminating. Treat with fluids,
anti-emetics (anti-nausea), anti-diarrheals and pain medication.
There are also blocking and diluting agents, but these are isotope specific:
For Radioactive Iodine (I-131), use Potassium Iodide (KI) - must be given within
4 hours after the exposure, see the dosing chart below
For Strontium-85 and Strontium-90, use calcium, aluminum, barium
For Tritium, use ordinary water (force fluids for 3 days)
For the Transuramics (Plutonium, Americium, Curium, Californium), use DTPA
1 gram intravenously (must be given within 24 hours after the exposure)
For Cesium, use Prussian Blue 1 gram orally three times a day for three weeks
There are two problems with the blocking agents: First, you often don’t
know what the isotope identity is until after it is too late to administer
the blocking agent. There is no easy way to determine which isotopes were included
in the bomb and you will need to rely on medical personnel to provide you with
this information. Secondly, most of the blocking agents are not readily available.
The only exception is KI, which is easily purchased through many of the SurvivalBlog
advertisers. You are fortunate if you have DTPA
or Prussian
Blue stored away, but most people don’t.
In the absence of knowing what isotopes were in the dirty bomb, my advice would
be to have as much fluid as possible (to dilute tritium). I would also take
KI if you have some. If I-131 was in the bomb, the KI will protect your thyroid
gland (and possible cancer later in life). It must be taken within 4 hours
after the exposure. If I-131 was not in the explosive, the KI is safe with
minimal side effects. If you decide to take some, use the following dosing
chart:
Adults 18 and older: 130 mg of KI
Pregnant/Lactating females: 130 mg KI
Children age 3-18 years: 65 mg KI
1 month-3 years: 32 mg KI
Birth-1 month: 16 mg KI
In summary, the radiological/nuclear threat is real! Mass casualties in your
area are possible, but radiation injury is treatable.
JWR Adds: Some readers might not be familiar with the
term Gray--the standard unit of measurement for radiation exposure, that
replaced
REM (Roentgen Equivalent, Man), and RAD (Radiation Absorbed Dose). For us
Bomb Shelter Era dinosaurs, conversion from Grays are as follows.
1 Gy equals 100 rad
1 mGy equals 100 mrad
1 Sv equals 100 rem
1 mSv equals 100 mrem
Stocking up on KI tablets is inexpensive, so every family should keep a
supply on hand. In 1985, I
was stationed in West Germany and
was briefly down-wind of Chernobyl. At the
time I wished that I had some KI available! Anyone that lives in an urban area should
have a Nuk-Alert "key fob" radiation detector. That way you won't have to
wait for word from someone else to determine whether or not a nearby bomb explosion
was a
dirty
bomb. Nuk-Alerts are
available from several SurvivalBlog advertisers.
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Louisiana Sales Tax Holiday for Hurricane Preparedness--May 24 & 25
Residents of the US state of Louisiana can purchase needed items
free of sales tax as they prepare for the 2008 hurricane season.
The inaugural 2008 Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday takes place on
Saturday, May 24 and Sunday, May 25. The holiday is an annual, statewide event
created by the Louisiana Legislature to assist families with the important
job of protecting their lives and property in the event of a serious storm.
During the two-day holiday, tax-free purchases are allowed for the first $1,500
of the sales price on each of the following items:
•
Self-powered light sources, such as flashlights and candles;
•
Portable self-powered radios, two-way radios, and weather-band radios;
•
Tarpaulins or other flexible waterproof sheeting;
•
Ground anchor systems or tie-down kits;
•
Gas or diesel fuel tanks;
•
Batteries – AAA, AA, C, D, 6-volt, or 9-volt (automobile batteries and
boat batteries are not eligible);
•
Cellular phone batteries and chargers;
•
Non-electric food storage coolers;
•
Portable generators;
•
Storm shutter devices – Materials and products manufactured, rated, and
marketed specifically for the purposes of preventing window damage from storms
(La. R.S. 47:305.58).
The 2008 Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax holiday begins at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday,
May 24, and ends at 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, May 25.
The sales tax holiday does not extend to hurricane-preparedness items or supplies
purchased at any airport, public lodging establishment or hotel, convenience
store, or entertainment complex.
For more information, visit the State
of Louisiana web site.
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Letter Re: The Recent Blizzard on I-90 in Wisconsin
JWR,
I read the link that was submitted by Craig in Odds 'n Sods. The
Channel 3000 story couldn't be farther from the truth. As a local first
responder, I can attest that we are getting the short end of the stick. The
State Patrol didn't even acknowledge
there was any problem on the interstate until hours after our crews
were already on scene. They didn't even know that Dane County had set up
an incident
command headquarters at the Highway 51 interchange. The first semi trucks
started losing traction as early as 10 a.m.that day. Near blizzard conditions
had been
present
all the previous night. I am on Stoughton, Wisconsin EMS team,
and my cousin is with the Stoughton Fire Department. My cousin and his friend,
also a firefighter,
responded to
the
command
center with personally owned snowmobiles.
Shortly after these two individuals start checking
the welfare of motorists, a State Patrol officer stopped them and read
them the riot act for daring to drive snowmobiles on what he called "my interstate." He
threatened to give both emergency responders (acting under fire command orders)
citations for operating the snowmobiles on the interstate. They had
been tasked by the incident commander with recon of the southbound lanes,
they made it to the Rock River (where the Rock County incident command was
set up), and
were met by more than 30 members of the local snowmobile club. These private
citizens came ready equipped with food, water and first aid. The two local
firefighters
were tasked by Rock Co. incident command to split up the club members into
two teams and check lanes in both directions.
At no time did the local
responders ever see National Guard members on snowmobiles. Nor did they ever
see any on the interstate. The National Guard were handing out water
and food from one truck at the Dane Co. incident command headquarters to emergency
workers. The
stranded
motorists soon started to become covered by snow drifts. Many said that was
the most scary aspect, as well as the total lack of information. Local cell
towers became overloaded. Communications were accomplished by "CB relay chains".
Several diabetic motorists were assisted by snowmobilers, and one patient
who was en route to the University of Wisconsin Hospital in his privately
owned car was loaned a portable generator since the internal battery on the
patient's medical
device
ran out.
The National Guard chopper
was seen overhead on several occasions, but never landed as far as I
know. Much later in the day, after some traffic flow began, the snowmobilers
had to go back out to the interstate to wake up some of the semi truck drivers,
who had been
sleeping in their cabs, and whose rigs were now blocking traffic flow.
All told, the
firefighter/snowmobilers logged over 400 miles traversing a 25 mile stretch
of I-90. - BadgerDad, EMT-IV
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During a Disaster Event Should You Stay at Home or Leave?, by Grandpappy
Different types of disasters may require a different response if a family
wishes to maximize their chances for long-term survival. Therefore each family
should
have several different disaster plans that they could successfully implement
depending on the circumstances. These plans should include:
1. Staying at your home and being able to survive for a reasonable period of
time without any outside assistance, and
2. Quickly and efficiently evacuating your home and traveling to a predetermined
destination.
Staying at home is probably the best overall strategy for most families in
a variety of different disaster type situations. However, there are a few scenarios
where your continued long-term survival may necessitate the evacuation of your
home. For example, consider each of the following situations:
Fire in a city, suburb, or in the country: The only option is to leave and
to leave quickly. Even if the fire doesn’t reach your home, the smoke
could make it impossible to breathe. If your home
does
survive
then the smoke from the fire will probably saturate many of your possessions
and they will have to be replaced.
Flooding From Heavy Rains or Hurricanes: During severe flash flooding many
homes, trees, and cars are completely swept away. If you stay, you die. In
other areas only the first floor of a home may be under water. You might be
safe
on the second floor, or in the attic, or on your roof. In most flooding situations
the water does eventually recede and you can go downstairs. However, the building
foundation is now weakened, the floors are warped, the walls are cracked and
peeling, and the appliances are ruined. It these cases it frequently costs
less to rebuild from scratch than to repair all the damaged areas. And living
in the home during the repairs is not an option because the mold and mildew
that is now growing in your floors and walls will produce air-borne spores
that will make you sick and gradually kill you. If this situation your only
option will be to leave. (Note: If you become unexpectedly stranded in your
home during a flood and you can’t evacuate, then you should quickly transfer
your most important possessions to the second floor or attic to reduce the
possibility of their becoming water damaged.)
Drought: The lakes dry up. The city water supply is exhausted. The city must
be evacuated. You may stay if you wish but why would you want to? What type
of people do you think will become your new neighbors? How will you survive
when your current supply of food and water is eventually gone and the drought
continues? Without rain there will be no way to replenish your water supply
and no way to grow more food. Without water how will the city survive if someone’s
very small cooking fire accidentally gets out of control and quickly spreads
throughout a very, very dry building? In a very short period of time the entire
city will be in flames. And if the city has already been evacuated then you
will not receive any warning until you see the flames or smell the smoke, assuming
it doesn’t happen while you are asleep.
Epidemic: Is the disease spreading by water, air, human contact, or some combination
of methods? What percent of the population is dying? Staying inside your home
in this situation would probably be the best solution unless the flu is being
spread through the air. If that is the case and you are living in a heavily
populated area then how long will it take the virus to eventually make its
way into your air supply? If you had a gas mask or face filters then you might
be able to escape to a remote region of a national forest where the virus will
have a smaller chance of reaching and infecting you.
Martial Law: Why was it implemented? What are the restrictions? And do you
really want to live in a heavily-populated area that is being policed by the
military and where you could be executed by anyone in the military for any
reason at any time without any type of trial?
Political or Religious Persecution: What if all registered Republicans are
suddenly declared to be enemies of the state? Or all Democrats? Or all Protestants
or Catholics or Muslins? Some of you may be laughing right now and saying this
is impossible and it could never happen in this country. I truly hope you are
right. But what if you are wrong? What if you suddenly heard on the news that
you are now a member of a group of people that has been identified as being
enemies of the state? What would be your plan for survival? If you remain where
you currently live it would only result in your immediate arrest, trial, and
either imprisonment or execution. During World War II in Germany there were
millions of Jews, Christians, and several other groups of individuals who learned
this lesson the hard way. And Germany is not an isolated example. This has
happened many, many times in many different places in modern history.
None of these things are pleasant to think about but the above threats are
real. If any one of them should occur where you now live then you may need
to evacuate your home or apartment very quickly in order to have any chance
for long-term survival.
How to quickly evacuate your home or apartment is not something most people
take the time to think about. However, over the past few years the increasing
number of families that have had to quickly evacuate their homes is extraordinary.
Entire families and communities have been uprooted and moved to another area
and in many cases they will never be able to return to their homes or to the
life they once knew. Hurricanes, flooding, and forest fires have resulted in
the loss of billions of dollars worth of possessions and have claimed an unknown
number of lives. Devastating winter weather has crippled many areas and left
hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity or heat in the middle of
winter and forced people to seek refuge and basic survival in community shelters,
schools and churches.
Flash floods and forest fires happen so quickly that people do not have the
time to carefully consider what they should take with them. Later when they
return and find their home and possessions reduced to cinders, or ruined from
water damage, they wished they’d had more time to think about their choices
before they were forced to evacuate.
Therefore, before a disaster strikes, prudent individuals will make a simple
list of the most important things to salvage in the event of a disaster. Later,
if a disaster should force them to evacuate their home then they can consult
their list and quickly execute their plan and collect and save their most important
possessions. They could salvage the things they would need to survive under
difficult circumstances, and things that would make their transition to a different
life style not only possible but also a little easier for their entire family.
If you survive a disaster then you can start over. If you have a plan, starting
over will not be as difficult as someone who evacuates without a plan. Unfortunately
some of the people who survive without a plan will eventually resort to robbing
and/or killing. Predators do not discriminate and they will prey on one another
as well as on the helpless. Human predators are usually a self-correcting problem
during a disaster, if the disaster lasts long enough.
If you must evacuate your home you should have carefully considered ahead of
time where you will go. Your destination should not be a last minute decision
because your choice of a destination is as important as carefully selecting
which items to take with you.
Bug-Out Destination Options
Let’s examine several different destination options. In each of the following
situations you should attempt to pay your expenses using whatever credit cards
you have available and save whatever cash you might have for a future emergency.
If your family has more than one car then you should quickly load each vehicle
to the maximum, without overloading them, and then drive out of the disaster
area. Before you start you should have consulted a map and selected a minimum
of two alternate routes that lead to your final destination. Then listen to
your car radio as you are driving to see if there are traffic or other problems
along any of your planned departure routes. The quicker that you can be underway
the better your chances will be that you can get your family to safety.
Your safe destination could be any one of the following:
Family: If you have family members who live outside the impacted disaster area
then they may be willing to provide you with shelter for a short period of
time until the disaster has passed and you can return to your home. However
most families live on a very tight budget and they will not be able to feed
and clothe you for an extended period of time. It would be nice if you paid
for some of the groceries while you are there, and also made a contribution
to their utility bills. If it later becomes impossible for you to return to
your original home then you will need to find new employment and a place to
live as quickly as you can to relieve the pressure on family relationships.
If your new job does not pay enough so you afford to rent a place of your own,
then you should give at least half of each of your paychecks to the family
you are staying with to help pay their bills. You should also remember that
you are still a guest in their house, and that every member of your family
needs to abide by their rules.
Friend's Home: The above comments about family also apply to very close friends.
However the relationship is much weaker and friends should only be imposed
upon for the absolute minimum amount of time. Even if you have discussed this
situation with your friends in advance, it would still be a good idea to minimize
the amount of time you stay with them.
Motel: A motel located outside the disaster area is a good option if you can
afford it, and if the disaster is forecasted to be relatively short in duration.
Once the disaster passes you may be able to return to your normal way of life.
An Extended Stay Motel might be a better option because you can pay by the
week or month and each room also has a few kitchen appliances, such as a refrigerator
and a microwave. Before paying the rent always politely ask if you can see
the actual room you will be renting.
Boarding House: Depending on the size of your family you may be able to rent
a simple room in a boarding house on a weekly or monthly basis. You can read
the “For Rent” section of the local newspaper to locate one these
places and then you can call to see what their rules are. You should phone
several places to find the best deal based on what your family requires.
Forest Campground or recreational vehicle (RV) Park: If the weather permits,
then a campground or RV Park may be an option if you have an RV, or if you
have
a
good tent and
some camping gear. Many RV Parks have a separate campground area for tents.
They also have a community shower area, one for men and one for women, and
they have drinking water available near the campsite. A good tent is not an
expensive investment and every family should have a tent to avoid being forced
into a Government Shelter for survival. Even if you have no money you can still
camp for free in most National Forests as long as you don’t stay at one
of the official forest campgrounds. However, you will need to move your campsite
at least once per week to a different area to comply with forest regulations.
(Note: If you own an RV then it might be wise to find an RV storage site close
to your planned evacuation destination. The monthly rental to store and park
an RV is about the same everywhere but the advantage of parking it near your
planned destination is that your RV would already there. If you have family
members who live on acreage way out in the country then they may be willing
to let you park your RV at their place for free.)
Government or Community Shelter: As a last resort, you may temporarily reside
in a shelter. A church operated temporary disaster shelter is usually less
restrictive than other types of shelters. However, before you go to the shelter
it would probably be a good idea to rent a temporary storage facility and store
all your equipment, supplies, and personal belongings in the storage unit.
Many of these monthly storage rental units are large enough to drive a car
into so you could park your extra car inside and still have room to store all
your equipment and supplies. You are also allowed to put your own personal
padlock on the door to your rental unit. (Note: Some storage units will not
allow you to park a car inside the actual rental unit but they will rent you
space inside the fenced area to park your car on a monthly basis. In this situation
completely empty your car into the rental until before you park it.) If you
have cash, or if you can get cash from an ATM, then you should pay the rent
in cash to avoid leaving an electronic trail to the location where you are
storing your remaining possessions. If possible pay the rent for a minimum
of three months in advance and get a receipt. Your entire family could then
get into the remaining vehicle and drive to the shelter location. Just remember
that some shelters are easy to get into but almost impossible to get out of
until the authorities are ready to release you. If you become a voluntary prisoner
at one of these shelters you may discover that life in the shelter is unbearable
and that you are not allowed to leave simply because you now realize you should
have never entered the shelter. When you first enter the shelter, there is
a strong likelihood that government shelter personnel will carefully search
you and confiscate any weapons, knives,
drugs including prescription medicines, tools, children toys, money, makeup,
wallets, purses, keys, and any extra food you may be carrying with you. It
is unlikely you will get all of these items back when it is time for you to
leave. In some cases you will only be allowed to enter the shelter with the
clothes you are wearing and a new identification card [or wrist band] issued
to you at the shelter. This makes escape from the shelter less feasible because
you
will
have surrendered all your possessions including your driver’s license,
credit cards, money, and keys. This forces you to follow any rules the shelter
may impose because you are now defenseless and you know you now have no other
choice in the matter. Savage brute force will dominate inside these shelters
and your family members will be subject to beatings, rape, and having their
daily food rations forcibly confiscated by the strongest residents in the shelter.
In a worst case, these evil individuals will continue to grow stronger as your
family members continue to grow weaker and eventually die of disease or starvation.
These
are some of the reasons why a church or community volunteer shelter would be
preferred to an official government shelter.
The preceding discussion has focused on: (1) the need to evacuate, and (2)
several different possible destinations. It has not reviewed the most important
things
to take with you when you evacuate your home. Here
is a link to a list of practical and
useful items.
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Letter Re: Preparedness for Less Than a Worst Case, From an Eastern Urbanite's Perspective
Jim,
I found the following in a letter posted on your blog: "Barring TEOTWAWKI,
it seems to me that we are infinitely more likely to face moderately scary
scenarios,
like Hurricane Katrina and necessary urban
evacuation,
some urban 1970s-style civil disturbance but nothing like Mogadishu, high-intensity
individual criminal acts, a low-order terrorist event nearby and the accompanying
panic, or some other situation shy of the worst case scenario."
Do people realize that New Orleans wasn't far from becoming Mogadishu-like
after Hurricane Katrina? Certainly if the water hadn't flooded the streets
it very well could have been much worse. The flood waters actually helping
the situation by
restricting
movement to a degree. And let's not forget we heard the approved media version
of it. Who knows how many people really were killed, wounded or raped.
Certainly we want to hope and pray for the best, but it's
totally unrealistic given recent examples in the United States to think that
the low-lifes in society will not take advantage of any and possibly every
situation.
There's some good writings out regarding some of what happened in breakdowns
and economic
problems in other countries- i.e, Argentina, Rhodesia, etc. Here's
some things to consider regarding that:
I would argue that people in third world countries are accustomed to:
currency devaluation, military controls, rioting in the streets, high crime rates,
food
shortages, breakdown of infrastructure [such as extended power failures],
et cetera.
So for the average Third World resident these things are not TEOTWAWKI. Now
consider the suburbanite in the US of A:, "John Smith": John is definitely not
used
to
seeing
the
value of his money vanish before his own eyes. John Smith is not used
to getting
mugged every day on his way home.
John Smith is not used to seeing the military on his street.
John Smith
is not used to rioting in his city. John Smith is not used
to two or
three days of brown-outs
or black-outs.
John Smith gets angry and extremely frustrated when someone cuts him off in
traffic. John's wife Sally is irate when she loses satellite reception during
Oprah and
she misses the required reading section. John and Sally's kids are even worse.
And that's suburban folks, what most of us would call "middle class." We
won't even bother to talk about some of the other's actions, just find the archives
of Hurricane Katrina and the New Orleans Superdome and you'll figure that out.
[JWR
Adds: Lest anyone consider this a quasi-racist statement from R.H.,
bear
in
mind
that some
of
the looters caught on film in New Orleans were white and
hispanic.
The
tendency
toward
looting
and
other
acts of lawlessness during disasters is
tied
to economics and whether or not children have a law-abiding, morally-grounded
upbringing, not race.]
As survivalists, we need to be careful in our thinking. If we are not mentally
prepared for the "worst case" and always assume that the guvmint will
bail us out before our "three day kit" nonsense runs out, we are going
to be in for a world of hurt. It took about three days for it to get really ugly
in New Orleans and one could argue that had a lot to do with weather factors
or it potentially would have happened sooner.
A lot of folks have "itching ears" and want to hear that they will
be okay in the suburbs, that two weeks of food is enough, that they will only
have
to 'brandish' a firearm and won't have to actually use it, et cetera. I'd like
to personally thank you and the many others on the net that don't water
down the message so as to pander to "itching ears." Thank
you for your
commitment to reality - R.H.
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Letter Re: Updated Nuclear Targets in the United States
Jim,
This letter is in response to your posting today regarding potential nuclear
targets. Overall, a very good question by DFer, and your wise and reasonable
response is much appreciated. As one of the few people on the Internet who
actually discuss potential US nuclear targets, based on historical government
documentation, I'm glad to see you and a few others (Shane Connor, Joel Skousen,
etc.) not letting this important point of history be forgotten. It's another
visit to an
old post of yours in June of 2006.
Lawrence's response in that post was "old 1960s era targeting maps will
still give the survivalist a good idea of where not to be when TSHTF".
That still applies. Discussion on your site and many others about other places
not to be (mass gatherings such as sports events, malls, national monuments
and the like) is also worthy of consideration, in our current trend of monthly
terror threats, such as today's announcement of Osama Bin Laden's latest video
threatening Europe. (And yes, .mil is very concerned on both sides of the pond).
I have had a few "unofficial" e-mails from government contacts in
the last couple of years (since 2005...most [of them] working on government
contracted publications for internal use) who have asked for some of my non-public
collected
data information on targeting, and the short online Q&A with them has led
me to believe that the pot of hot water we frogs have been living in has had
the heat turned up, meaning this...new and updated lists of potential worry
are prepared, and probably still being tuned and polished up, as the daily
world threat thermometer rises and falls.
I seriously doubt the general public will see these lists, maps, locations,
and target types for many years to come, since the external threat to US soil
is still at such a ragged and ever concerned pace. It took only two years to
get the National
Attack Planning Base 1990 released from FEMA by the FOIA, thanks to a
friend of mine who found my document wish list a few years ago. While just
over 20
years old, it's still the measuring
stick for any reports that follow.
FEMA 196 is still the only consumer document available directly from FEMA that
ever gave fairly detailed info (to a generalized county level) of potential
US targets, and since US threats have risen greatly since 9/11, it may well
be the only document that FEMA, or succeeding agencies, ever produce on that
subject. What we can learn from the currently available info, is why the original
targets were targets, and what might make new locations future targets. It
takes a bit of work on our part, but it's not any more difficult than basic
I've expanded the
target list on SurvivalRing a bit with more discussion of
what makes a target, and have added a comments section to the web page to answer
specific questions that readers and visitors may have about the old targets,
and potential new targets. SurvivalBlog readers might like to discuss our current
target list, or have more info they'd like to bring to the table.
Since I'm still attending college full time, I have a lot of my site projects
on the back burner, but one near the top of the list is a mashup of my blogging
software, with Google Maps, extended interactive areas, and a lot deeper discussion,
research, and updating on targeting, safe areas, and all the details you mention
in your response (weather patterns, population demographics, etc). I'm finishing
up an atmospheric science class this semester that really opened my mind to
global weather patterns more than ever, and the work that Shane Connor did
with Transpacific Fallout is going to be seeing an update from me in the spring.
Keep up the great work, and thanks for all you do. You're one of the most rational
minds I've found on the web when it comes to the simple work of helping others
understand why we need to think about dealing with whatever the future brings.
- Rich Fleetwood, Founder of SurvivalRing.org
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New Zealand's South Island Readies for "the Big One", by SurvivalistSam
The whole South Island has been told to prepare for a massive earthquake in
the near future.
This is due to the Alpine Fault Line which is where the Australasian and Pacific
plates meet on the West Coast of the South Island.
The boundary between these two plates is locked and the pressure building up
needs to be released.
A release of such pressure would result in an earthquake about the size of
a number 8 on the Mercalli Intensity scale.
Such a earthquake would last for minutes, not seconds.
Canterbury University Associate Professor Tim Davies was quoted at a recent
meeting as saying that, "The longer it goes before the next earthquake,
the bigger the bang will be when the spring goes."
The shaking from the predicted earthquake would be felt all throughout New
Zealand and may even be felt as far away as Sydney.
Mr. Davies also emphasized that people should have food and supplies on hand
to last for up to three weeks after a quake.
Shaking damage and land instability from a quake like this would disrupt surface
transport for months, tourists will be trapped, and distribution of vital supplies
( e.g. food, fuel) will be limited. Hydro stations will shut down immediately
and may be slow to restart, power reticulation will be damaged. Only satellite
phones will remain in use.
Landslides into lakes and fiords may cause tsunami, as may the collapse of
river deltas in lakes or the sea. Queenstown, Milford and Wanaka are likely
sites of tsunami damage
Tour bus operators are also urged to stock up on food and supplies for their
customers who could likely be trapped for days in isolated locations.
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Letter Re: Lack of Government Preparedness and Infrastructure Upkeep Necessitates G.O.O.D. Planning
Jim,
Popular Mechanics magazine outlines five scary Katrina-esque scenarios in
various parts of our country might face in the coming years. I find it interesting
that
two
of
the five involve California and three of the five involve large bodies of water.
People in the affected areas need to seriously consider moving out or having
a Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.)
plan. Also, just because you don't think you are near any bodies of water,
it does
not make your home immune to floods. When checking a local university's
Emergency Preparedness Plan, I found out that my neighborhood is part of a
flood plain for a dam 16 miles away. Fortunately, high ground is within a five
minute walk and any flooding from catastrophic failure will take [considerable
time] to reach my home.
I pray that nothing horrible will happen to my loved ones, but since reading
and acting on the advice of SurvivalBlog, I am more confident in my ability
to protect my family. As concerned citizens, we all need to get after
our local
and Federal government to maintain and improve our infrastructure so
we can avoid these disasters. But, like you've admonished us before, we
must
be
prepared in case our government fails us. Because they have, and they
will. - Mark D., Utah
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Letter Re: The Southeastern US Drought
JWR:
I was talking to a friend in North Carolina this afternoon and he was telling
me about the drought conditions in the Charlotte area and he relayed to me
some interesting drought news.
- The several acre sized lake on his property has dried up.
- Duke Power has issued a statement, in the local area, to expect power disruptions
in the coming months due to low water levels in the reservoirs that Duke operates
that is used for hydro power, cooling towers, and such.
Here is a
link from the DOE about a drought's drain on power. The article
is from 2002, but the conditions are worse now.
Best Regards, and I am taking advantage of your "6-Pack" sale for
autographed copies of "Patriots". - Desert T
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Letter Re: Recent Floods in the UK and the Impact on Our Preparations
Further to my
recent post about the recent flooding In the UK, things in the immediate
area are pretty well back to normal now, aside from some continuing disruption
to the road network due to land-slips, undermining and in some cases, bridges
across water courses being washed away.
Here, we got off very lightly, compared to some. No loss of life, no injuries,
very little property damage. There are many families, however, who will be
counting the cost of this incident for a long time, both in terms of loss
of loved ones and of property and livelihood. One’s heart goes out
to them.As to how our preparations ameliorated the effects of the flooding,
I must first of all say we were very lucky to have escaped. The waters found
their way into areas never before affected, with properties and farmland
many feet above the normal floodplain levels being covered. In one case,
a farm tractor in just such a place was up to its cab-roof in floodwater.
However, we moved to this area for work purposes in 1999. Prior to the move
we rented a property in the area to give us a base from which to explore
and familiarise
ourselves with it.
The next task was to obtain 1:50,000 Ordnance Survey maps of the entire region
and work out the pros and cons of each likely area for settlement.
To the east of this region lies the flat, productive lands of the Vale of
Evesham which, as beautiful and fertile as they may be, are crisscrossed
with so many waterways that the map of the area appears to have varicose
veins. To the west the topography changes as it moves into the mountains
of Wales, an area of stunning countryside, so well beloved of tourists in
the summers, but one so bleak in winter that it is used by Special Forces
as a training ground. [JWR Adds: This is the "Brecon
Beacons" area that many SurvivalBlog have read about in books about
the SAS.]
In-between the two the land becomes one of foothills, with small peaks up
to a thousand feet or so.
The area has several cities, many towns and villages, with all the concomitant
amenities and services along with a good transport infrastructure. It ticked
many of the boxes we had earmarked as necessities.
It also has one of the most unstable rivers in Europe running through it;
the River Severn. With its source in the hills of mid-Wales, the Severn is
one of many local rivers that feed from the mountains of Wales and find their
way to the sea further south in England after joining with the Severn.
Coming in from the east is the River Avon, of Shakespeare and Stratford-upon-Avon
fame. Another picturesque watercourse when in good humour, but truly frightening
when in flood. This too joins the Severn as it moves west towards the sea.
Given all this water, the thought of joining the many flood-plain dwellers
(does this name not give them a clue?) along these rivers did not have much
appeal. Also not wanting to live in an urban environment, we ruled out the
cities and larger towns. This led us to ‘head for the hills’ but
given the additional need to be reasonably close to transport links due to
work commitments, a compromise had to be reached.
We finally settled on (in?) the outskirts of a village in the foothills which
had the requisite communication links and was high enough to avoid all but
truly Armageddon-like flooding from the river system.
Being doomers by inclination and country folk by nature, we set about making
the place as self-contained as possible given the constraints of time, money
and the desire not to look out of place.
Water was a primary objective. Having invested so much time and effort trying
to avoid it, we now installed a series of linked barrels to collect around
500 gallons of rainfall run-off from the various roofs. (The long term plan
was to install underground storage but an impending move has forestalled
this). This to be used in the summer for assisting with garden irrigation
and for hygiene use should the need arise.
There is a mains supply of potable water, supplemented by bought bottled
and spring water from the adjacent hills captured and stored in ex-military
containers. (Again an underground cistern was planned).
When the recent floods hit, we found unprecedented amounts of rain had fallen
(up to 131mm locally) in just over 24 hours and the subsequent run-off completely
overwhelmed the drainage systems. It is not uncommon in these parts for the
hill roads to turn into rivers after a storm, but the amount coming off the
peaks was phenomenal. Due to our location on a hillside, we were in little
danger of standing –floods, but fortunately had sandbagged the ventilation
bricks and doorways to deal with the expected run off. Even so, the bags
were in danger of being overtopped by the sheer volume of water. This caught
us somewhat by surprise, never before had we needed to cover these points.
The mains water supply is electrically pumped throughout the area, so it
is not unknown for it to fail when the power goes down. We had sufficient
water available to deal with what was thankfully a short-term event. However,
the provision of more capacity could only be a good thing especially in the
event of a long term incident.Our electricity supply is mains provided, but
due to local conditions is fairly unreliable, going off on average once a
month. We have back-up for heating, cooking and lighting, with a variety
of methods for providing for each. As well as propane heaters and cooking
rings, we have wood stored and several camping style cooking sets using differing
fuels. Lighting from candles, hurricane and Coleman lamps as well as the
ubiquitous MagLites complete the list. Wind up radios are used to keep connected
to news services.
This system works well for us in a bug-in situation, with some of the kit
doubling for the bug-out bags, in which it is normally kept. It again worked
this time and we are currently replenishing supplies ready for the autumn
and winter weather.
We thought that given the predicted rainfall, bugging-in would be the best
solution and this proved to be so. We also planned to be on site during the
event as the lower surrounding area a re prone to flooding and we have been
cut-off in the past. Had we been caught out of position, one or more of us
would have been stranded. Cars were washed away by previously unheard of
levels of rainfall and all exit routes were simply inundated. We have multiple
exit routes planned and driven, but all were closed in a very short time.
Several staff members at one of our employers, who also live nearby, had
to remain in the building for several days, unable to get out . Even if they
could have escaped the building, they would have been unable to return to
their homes due to the floodwaters.
Being aware of the potential for the area to become cut off by bad weather,
we keep an above average level of consumables in. This includes foodstuffs,
medications, hygiene materials etc. We keep little in freezers, having lost
the contents once too often when power remained off too long. Most foods
are either canned or dried and when the power does fail, we emulate the NCIS
agents Jethro Gibbs and Kate Todd and eat the ice-cream before it melts!
When we could get from the property into the nearby town, we found the shelves
of the shops were depleted of nearly everything. Some panic buying had apparently
occurred, but this was also down to the inability to re-supply them as the
entire area was cut off from road and rail links. The disturbing
part about this was that this took no more than a couple of days for the
shelves to
empty. It seems that the ‘just-in-time’ approach also now applies
to your local food store and those behind-the-shop front warehouses are no
longer filled with more than a day or two’s goods.
What this would mean in a long term situation became all too obvious further
down the Severn’s route as large scale efforts had to be mobilised
to bring in bottled water and emergency food supplies to stranded people.
In summary, our initial site location work and subsequent ‘prepping’ served
us well during this event, but if any of us had been caught out of position,
or had we decided at the last minute to ‘bug-out’ as flood levels
rose, we might well have found ourselves in a different situation.
No matter what precautions one takes, it is surely down to the Grace of God
as to what happens and how well you fare. We are currently planning our next
adventure, a move out of the UK to a small patch of land somewhere in the Mediterranean.
The planning and preparation for this has been ongoing for several years. More
on that in a future article. Keep safe. - Michael in England
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Letter Re: Observations on the Flooding in Central England
Sir:
You might have seen the news reports about the flooding in Central England
last week. We’re in amongst it, but fortunately (and thanks to forward
planning) high enough to have remained dry.
The primary cause of the floods was a prolonged period of exceptionally
heavy rain, up to 131mm (c.5-1/2 inches) in one day. This followed hot
on the heels
of a very wet summer which left the ground sodden an unable to absorb the
downpour, which caused flash-flooding as it ran off.
Areas not normally flood-prone have been inundated. Rivers broke their
banks and filled their flood-plains.
Now this part of the country is used to flooding, although not in the summer
months, as it has two of the UK’s most unstable rivers, the Severn
and the Avon, passing through it. This episode, however, has been notable
for the
sheer amounts and force of the of water and depths of flooding. See this
link and this
link for some of the BBC's coverage…
The mayhem and disruption caused has been bad enough, but it has been compounded
by the behaviour of some which can only be described as moronic. Conversely,
the bravery of many, both in the response services and the public, has been
humbling to see.
The floods caused chaos with the transport links, with railway lines and
roads under several feet of water, even the M5 and M50 motorways (our equivalent
to freeways) were closed after they disappeared under anything up to a foot
of floodwater. This caused huge tailbacks with several thousand people stranded
for up to twenty hours in their vehicles. One woman went into labour whilst
in
the jam on the M5 and the emergency services were unable to reach her either
by ambulance or helicopter because of the conditions. Fortunately a truck-driver
stuck near to her car realised the situation and used his vehicle to force
a way through the water and the traffic to tow the woman’s car to the
ambulance. He then apparently had to tow the ambulance as it too had become
overwhelmed
by the water. They managed to get the woman to hospital in time for the child
to be born in the dry.
Towns and villages have been cut off for several days with residents needing
rescue by boat or helicopter as the waters rose so quickly. As is always
the case, some residents opt to stay with their property and many of these
had to
be rescued later as levels continued to rise.
The situation has been made worse by the failure of mains services; electricity
and water plant were flooded, even though they were sited above normal flood
levels. A water treatment plant was overwhelmed and engineers are having
to wait till flood levels drop sufficiently for them to get in and assess
the damage.
It is estimated that mains water will be off for at least two weeks. This
has resulted in the water company having to import bottled water into the
area for
drinking purposes and, when the floodwaters dropped sufficiently, the placing
of water bowsers to enable people to obtain clean water for sanitation. Sadly,
although not surprisingly, there have been cases of people vandalising the
bowsers, by breaking open the taps and even by polluting the contents. There
is one confirmed
case of someone urinating into a life saving tank. Looting has become a problem
in areas that have been evacuated, forcing police to be diverted from rescue
to deal with the crimes. There was an attempt to steal a length of temporary
flood barrier, supposedly for its high scrap value. It is perhaps a pity
that the thieves were thwarted in their attempt as on the other side of the
barrier
was several feet of floodwater.
Shops outside the affected zone have seen their entire supplies of water,
milk and bread bought out by ‘enterprising’ individuals who later
tried to sell them at highly inflated prices to the stranded people. Fortunately
the police dealt with this unsavoury bunch and the practice has all but ceased.It
is now just a week since the worst downpour, although the unseasonal rains
continue
to add to the misery. It took considerably less than a week, however,
for the infrastructure to break down. With no water or electricity,
empty shops and no means of re-supply, many people were in dire straits within
a couple of
days.
The elderly, infirm and those with young families were, and in many cases
still are, in deep trouble.
For families who could remain in their homes, or who have since returned,
to areas which are still without power and mains water, basic sanitation
is an
increasing problem. Toilet flushing has to be rationed, clothes washing is
virtually impossible
and personal hygiene requires a level of thought and discipline that few
are used to. One woman in her forties was seen on the television stating
that she
thought it appalling that the authorities had not been round to each home
to ‘tell
us what to do’. Personal responsibility and the thought that maybe the ‘authorities’ had
other things on their mind at the time did not seem to enter her thinking.As
the swollen rivers send the excess waters downstream the floods, power outages
and disruption travel along with them.
There has been some respite from the rains which has allowed the levels upstream
to drop, and flooding to recede, but at the time of writing (Friday 27th
July) more heavy rains are forecast for Saturday night and key personnel
have been placed on stand-by within the response services. Further flooding
is predicted as the ground is still sodden and unable to absorb any more
water. Whilst writing this first report, the post has got through and I’ve
received my copy of "Patriots" from
the lovely people at Amazon. The opening quotation from Gene Roddenberry
makes a far better ending than
any I could come up with: ‘Nuclear war is not necessary to cause a
breakdown of our society……their
water supply comes from hundreds of miles away and any interruption of that,
or food, or power for any period of time you’re going to have riots in
the streets. Our society is so fragile, so dependent on (the) interworking
of things…"
Postscript:
This has been the largest real-time test of our prepping to date. We live in
a fairly isolated spot and power outages are common, but this time we have
been cut-off by the floodwaters and have been thrown, albeit for a short time,
upon our own resources.
Our decision was to bug-in as we believed we would fare best here; the location
was chosen carefully although with some compromise due to the need to be near
places of employment.
That said, it seems everyone, us included, were surprised by the sheer amounts
of rain – the most in living memory in the region – and just how
quickly transport and communications failed. Had we bugged out in the midst
of it, we would very likely been refugees ourselves. When the recovery phase
is fully underway, we will re-appraise our planning and handling of the event.
Remember, no plan survives first contact..Keep safe. - Michael in England
JWR Adds: I find it amazing that in the midst of this crisis,
so many people are letting the copious rainwater from their roof downspouts
go to waste.
They
just
don't
have
the survival
mindset. At the very least, they could be using rainwater for clothes
washing, bathing, and toilet flushing. With a water filter, they could also
use rainwater for
drinking and cooking.
Take a minute to read his piece, by way of SHTF Daily:
Living
life without any tap water Take special note of the final quote in the
article: "We also have to use bottled water to flush down the toilet,
which is a waste, but we don't have any choice." Common sense, it seems,
is all too uncommon.
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Letter Re: Some Results From the CDC's Asian Avian Flu Preparedness/Education Budget
Hi Jim,
I'm a regular reader and 10
Cent Challenge contributor. I just wanted to pass
on a little info that struck me as very unusual. I live in Louisiana, too
close
to New Orleans unfortunately. In my mailbox on Saturday, I received a 32 page
publication from the Louisiana Dept of Health & Hospitals. It is titled "How
You Can Be Prepared for a Flu Pandemic" Individual & Family Handbook.
What do they know that we don't? The state spent $663,594.40 publishing 1,658,986
copies of this Handbook under a grant support from the Centers for Disease
Control (CDC).
This is about the number of households in the state as of the 2000 Census,
so I assume each household will be mailed one. I intend to wait about a week
and take a poll of my fellow workers to see if anyone received and/or read
the publication. My gut tells me most will simply pitch it with the junk mail
and not
even read it. The book is very basic, but it does make an attempt to raise
awareness and encourage preparedness and educate on a subject of which most
people are ignorant. The KISS principle,
I'm sure. If nothing else it could be a good
tool to help persuade the "blind" to consider the value
of preparation-especially skeptical spouses and close family members. Maybe
you have seen this handbook or something similar. Here
is a link to the publisher. (Item
# ps92230)
Keep up the good work. We appreciate all that you and the family do to keep
the information flowing. Thanks and God Bless, - GMac
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Letter Re: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina and Indiscriminate Weapons Confiscation
Dear Jim and Family,
Some months ago, our president signed into law a bipartisan bill that protects
Americans from gun seizure during a disaster. In theory, every emergency worker
(including police and National Guard) knows they cannot take guns from
citizens, period. In theory. In practice its far more likely
that we can all expect: the worst case scenario. This is uncomfortable as
you have no idea if the cop down
the street
is honest or a bully who's taking guns because he can, or because he's been
ordered by by his boss, or a buddy on the force with plans. I have encountered
crooked cops. They really do exist, not just in movies. They do a real disservice
to honest cops and endanger lives but investigations are hampered by the code
of silence and Internal Affairs can only do so much without getting murdered
undercover.[JWR Adds: Thankfully, the vast majority of police
are honest and trustworthy.]
I'm wondering if your encounter with the police is about to make you a victim
or not leaves you with the unpleasant choice of either losing your ability
to
defend yourself during the most critical time or deciding
to be proactive and run the risk of dying for it, or even killing an honest
cop by mistake. Following Hurricane
Katrina, the Federal government and National Guard behaved in a shameful manner,
disarming people trying to protect themselves. The result is this law, which
probably won't be followed. How would you enforce it? Take them to court? If
you survive, great. But if you really needed the gun, why did you survive,
weakening your own case. If you really did need it you're too dead to sue.
When the cop says give me your gun what will you do? Do you have a backup?
Do you have an argument that will keep him from taking it? Does the cop know
or care that taking your gun during this disaster is a Federal crime? And will
he harm or imprison you for pointing it out? These are ugly questions, but
you had better think long and hard what your options are and what is the appropriate
response.
Best, - InyoKern
JWR Replies: You are correct that H.R.5441
has been signed into law, (becoming Public Law No: 109-295). So
it would be considered an
extrajurisdictional act for any officer to "temporarily or permanently
seize, or authorize seizure of, any firearm the possession of which is not
prohibited under Federal,
State,
or local law, other than for forfeiture in compliance with Federal law or as
evidence in a criminal investigation" during "a declared disaster." By
now, all sworn officers at all levels should have been briefed on this law,
and
its existence has surely been
added to the curricula of police academies. In most states, by exceeding
jurisdictional authority, officers shed their "Sovereign Immunity" from
prosecution and/or civil suit as individuals. (Up to a
$100,000 per Title 42, USC.) In many
states, sworn officers sued in this manner for damages
in their personal or individual
capacities are classed as "persons" (rather that state officials).
See: Hafer v. Melo, S.Ct., 112 S.Ct. 358, (19, 116 L.Ed.2d 301 91). And
in many states, by doing so they even put themselves in the same category as
a common criminal.
To wit, extrajurisdictional seizure of property constitutes
common theft. (Technically, you would be able to place an
officer under citizen's arrest. But I wonder what circumstances would allow
you to safely do so.)
The wise course of action during a disaster is to studiously avoid confrontations with
anyone in law enforcement that is exceeding their authority. And, if you are
unfortunate and do get your guns seized, then have a backup set
of guns cached nearby. They can't take what they can't find. BTW, this is
just another example of the value of redundant logistics. Don't be
belligerent or
come to blows over this issue. Worry about recourse in the courts later.
In the short
term,
your
key responsibility is to protect your family members and see them safely through
the crisis. And you can't do that if you are behind bars.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Weather Forecasting the Old-Fashioned Way, an Important Skill for WTSHTF »
Letter Re: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina and Indiscriminate Weapons Confiscation
Dear Mr. Rawles,
First off, I would like to thank you for writing the novel "Patriots" and
starting SurvivalBlog. My dad sent me your book in the mail and told me to
read it. Being a fan of Tom
Brown-ish survival literature, I decided to give
it a try. I read it in one night, starting at about 8 pm and finishing at 3
in the morning. Truly, my world view has changed. I have immediately started
making preparations---getting my Bug Out Bag together, my Bug Out Routes planned
and starting to practice some of the skills sets I've let fall by the wayside
recently.
I am a full time college student and collegiate cross country and track runner
at a school in the great state of Tennessee, but have had the benefit of being
raised in a preparedness oriented family in a
southwestern region of rural Montana. I was at school when [Hurricane] Katrina
hit and remember the close-to-home impact it had on many of my friends who
lived in the New Orleans area. Our school sent relief teams to New Orleans
immediately afterwards, with shipments of food and water. At the time, my perception
of the Katrina disaster was largely shaped by the major media
outlets. A humanitarian crisis it surely was, but I never realized the uglier
side of the story until recently.
It seems that disasters and emergencies bring out the best and the worst in
people. Having read extensively many of the SurvivalBlog entries and perused
the Internet for stories and first-hand accounts of surviving the Katrina disaster,
I discovered that the population of New Orleans could be broken down into four "classes" of
people during the evacuation/hurricane/post-disaster crisis.
The first class of people was composed of a small group of individuals and
families who had plenty of food, water and protection stored away to either
weather the storm, or to travel to a safer location without sacrificing their
safety.
The second class of people was composed of a larger section of the populace
who decided to leave New Orleans or evacuate their area and had no food, water
or self-protection supplies built up before-hand. These became the highway
refugees, or the refugees huddled in the Superdome. Some were successful in
escaping safely, many were not.
The third class of people was composed of people who decided to stay in New
Orleans, without the necessary preparations, and planned on either the government
helping them or on obtaining supplies from their vacant neighbor's homes and
Wal-Mart. These were looters, thieves and murderers.
The fourth class of people was composed of law enforcement and National Guardsmen
who stayed in New Orleans to try and maintain order. They were usually not
successful.
In my analysis, everyone in the first class of people were prepared to handle
whatever came their way. They were good, hearty men and women, with respect
for God and a practical view of the world. In order to survive, they just needed
to minimize contact with all three of the
other classes of people, namely the refugees, the looters and the police.
The refugees were desperate people, some willing to kill for gasoline so that
they could rescue family members. While not necessarily bad people, they were
victims of the circumstances. Avoidance of these people was relatively easy,
as long as one stayed off of main highways and out of refugee concentration
areas. One reader posted a letter on this blog about his experience
with his dog and pickup filled with gas-cans on his way back to secure his
gun store. The looters were also desperate, but not necessarily refugees. They
weren't fleeing, but were actively preying on people and businesses to
sustain themselves. These people were a lot like the "Mutant Zombie Bikers"
[often mentioned by SurvivalBlog readers]. Mostly active in New Orleans, these
looters were to be feared and avoided mostly by the prepared and self-sufficient
people.
The police were able to direct traffic and enforce the law in the early stages
of the disaster, but by the time traffic spilled out into the opposing lanes
and looters really started opening up on their rampage,
they were relatively helpless. One thing that much of the public is not aware
of is the indiscriminate"martial law" tactics undertaken by
many police/SWAT and National Guardsmen during and after the evacuation. While
their actions in arresting and confiscating weapons may have been justified
in trying to control the looting problem, many honest, prepared men and women
who were "holding the fort" had their homes invaded, searched and
any and all weapons confiscated. In one of the parishes near New Orleans, the
police used boats to pull over riverine traffic and search and confiscate any
weapons found, often without providing receipts for the weapons confiscated.
Obviously, for a prepared survivalist who was protecting their property, Bugging
Out, or trying to provide humanitarian/rescue assistance, this was a major problem.
After watching this
short documentary on 2nd Amendment violations in [the aftermath of Hurricane]
Katrina,
which every law-abiding American owes it to themselves to watch, I have realized
that in a TEOTWAWKI or near-TEOTWAWKI type disaster, even law enforcement can
be more of hindrance than a help. The indiscriminate firearm confiscations
that occurred in the wake of Katrina are very worrisome indeed.
In planning my Bug-Out-Plan (with multiple, redundant routes...one by foot
if need be: yes, all 2,000 miles of it back home to Montana), I fully intend
to
avoid law enforcement like the plague. As [the] Doug Carlton [character] said
in Patriots, "Roads
are for people who like to get ambushed." Similarly, getting searched by the
police in a TEOTWAWKI type situation is something you definitely want to avoid.
There may be cops out there with their heads screwed on straight who can discern
an honest citizen from a looter, but the risk of running into a hotshot and
losing the means of protecting myself is too great.
I hope all other preparedness men and women take this into account when planning.
Oh, and never
become a refugee and confine yourself to a refugee camp. - R.D. from southern
Tennessee
JWR Replies: The troublemakers in New Orleans came from many
races, and surprisingly from both lower class and the lower middle class. It
is difficult to stereotype the "looters" when based on the archived
news footage it is clear that they represented a fairly wide cross-section
of the New Orleans
populace. Safe distance from major population centers is the key to survival
during a widespread disaster. Fewer people means fewer problems. Most of the
armed confrontations will take place in the big cities. Yes, lives will be
lost far and wide WTSHTF, but the vast majority of the violence will
be in the cities.
« Two Letters Re: Advice on Buying Registered Firearms Suppressors in the U.S. |Main| Letter Re: Bicycles for Emergency Transportation »
Letter Re: Convincing the Unconvinced that TEOTWAWKI is Possible
James Rawles;
I enjoy your blog and wish I had more time to review [all of the content].
I plan on getting the best of the blog when my funds permit.
I saw the "Convincing the Unconvinced" post and thought I would reply.
I like what another reader recommended on bringing people around to preparing
and hope you have a section dedicated to this subject somewhere on your blog.
Pushing a lot of information too fast will be counterproductive. They need
to learn and decide for themselves to be prepared, and how prepared [they want]
to be.
MJS could try getting Government-issued preparedness brochures. They are available
from the
American Red Cross and
The Department of
Homeland Security. This literature shows the need to be prepared for various
situations. The information coming from a source that the doubtful will consider
"mainstream" may be
what
they need to convince them to be prepared. You can work from there to discuss
with them all the types of potential disasters (man made and natural) that
can occur in your area and what can be done to be prepared.
Preparedness gifts are also a way to get the doubtful thinking about preparedness.
I have given first aid kits, power inverters, Flashlights, Baygen radios, vehicle
72 hour kits, Preparedness books--some published by the Red Cross and Homeland
Security--as Christmas gifts to plant the seeds of preparedness thinking. With
the bird flu threat looming, I am considering a long term food supply for a
month or less and publications on what you should know about bird flu for this
Christmas. I am looking at water purification equipment for the following Christmas.
At least this gives family members a chance to survive a short term event.
I know I cannot prepare for them and they have not
considered what to do if the
big
cities that they live in melt down. But I can give them the information to
make them think and to help them if they ask for it. - Ron from Ohio
« Letter Re: BATFE's Confusion About Pre-1899 Antique Gun Federally Exempt Status |Main| Letter Re: Convincing the Unconvinced that TEOTWAWKI is Possible »
Letter Re: Some Interesting Australian Web Sites
James:
I found the three following Australian web sites while surfing the web. The AusSurvivalist
site led to the second two: Australian
Government information concerning the London bombing and how Australia needs
to prepare, and the Australian
Government
Emergency Management web site. Regards, Bill N.
« Letter Re: Questions on Maximizing Gasoline Storage Life |Main| Note from JWR: »
Hurricane Preparedness, by MFA
I'd like to share a couple of things I've learned through the recent hurricane
seasons in Florida, being hit directly by one, indirectly by three or four
more (I've
lost count).
The following assumes you’re staying put, not bugging out. Typically
my wife will take the kids and bug out, while I stay home for security and
damage
control if needed. This can also apply to some of the severe storms that
other parts of the country experience throughout the year.
1. Water - In Florida, I travel with a case of water in the back of my car.
You never know. In the off season, we use up the stored bottled water from
the
last year, and right about now [--May--], do a replenish. Our typical storage
water "in
season" is about the size of a pallet, four feet high. Off season we may
get down to three or four cases. We also have a “Big Berkey” to
filter the water from the lake behind our house if things are down for more
than a week or so.
2. Food - Freeze dried long term storage food (Mountain House or equivalent)
is absolutely required. The stores will be cleaned out in the two or three
days before the storm arrives, and the grocers stop shipping food in at the
last minute to cut their losses in case the buildings are knocked down. Immediately
after the storm passes you're a fool to go out on the roads with the trees
and downed power lines and by the time they are cleared, the stores open on
a cash basis because the power is out, and it's dry goods only. All frozen
and refrigerated food is discarded so they won't get sued for selling spoiled
food. In your house, at the start of the hurricane season it’s prudent
to work down your refrigerated foods and fill the space in the freezers with
gallon milk jugs full of water. This will keep the remaining food from spoiling
if the power is only out for a few days.
3. Cooking – We have several stoves that work when nothing else does.
The best one for indoors is a butane stove that I picked up at a gun show for
about twenty bucks. Butane cans are available, and they store indefinitely.
I’d not use any combustion appliance indoors without ventilation, but
after the storm the windows can be opened, and there is plenty of breeze coming
in around the corrugated storm shutters, which still provide some measure of
security. We also have a couple of Coleman stoves that run on either propane
or coleman fuel, but those are strictly outdoor units.
4. Cash - Have a few hundred bucks cash on hand in the beginning of the season,
and increase it to a thousand or more if you can once things are in full swing.
There is usually a run on the ATMs when the storm is bearing down on
the area, and when the power is out, it's done.
5. Fuel - If there is even a hint of a storm, top off all vehicles and keep
them full until the threat has passed. It can take two weeks to get gasoline
into the area and replenish the empty stations after the run on gas that happens
when the storm is bearing down. Also, keep up on maintenance of your vehicles.
It would truly suck to blow a radiator hose in traffic while trying to evacuate.
(I’ve seen that happen – I think it was [Hurricane] Wilma, a guy
from Miami was evacuating through the Fort Myers area and had [his engine] overheated
with
his small child in the car. I stopped with my work truck and we filled up his
radiator
with
my drinking water supply, and I left him with a half case of bottled water,
which was what I had left. His terror at being at the mercy of both the weather
and his unwillingness to prepare was obvious).
6. Shelter - You need to buy the stuff to watertight your house before the
storm, not after. Buy enough tarps to completely cover your roof - do the math
and figure it out. In the off season the tarps are on clearance, pick up a
few spares. They don't go bad [if kept out of sunlight] - stick them on a shelf
in your garage.
7. Storm shutters - either cut and number plywood to cover the glass or install
the mounting tracks and have the corrugated metal panels ready to go. Do this
on the off season, not the day before, as you want to do the initial exercise
once and be done with it We put our shutters up about a day before the storm
is supposed to hit - sometimes at the last minute. Our family can do the job
in about 40 minutes in the pouring rain.
8. Tools and batteries - Charge everything at the first indication that your
area is targeted, then keep them on trickle charge to maintain full capacity.
I've got a battery powered Sawzall, but with two discharged batteries I might
as well use a hand saw. The same goes for battery powered drills – a
dead battery renders them useless.
9. Lighting – As for wind up lights, check them pre-season. I bought
a wind up light a year ago and while it still lights up, the battery is shot
- only lights when I crank it. I only paid ten or twelve bucks for it, but
it’s junk. April is the month where the battery powered lights are checked
to make sure they work, and a fresh supply of batteries are stocked.
10. Security - If you think you might need force to defend yourself, get your
concealed carry license (CCL), get your practice in and buy your rifles, handguns
and ammunition well before season. The state has been known to declare a state
of emergency
and
suspend the sales of guns and ammo when a storm is coming. Also, the gun
dealers will cut a deal in the off season, but "sticker [price] is sticker
[price]" when a storm is coming. Not gouging, just no breaks. Gun shows are
your friend, as
you can
really shop and compare.
This will get you through the storm and the immediate aftermath.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Reader Poll Results: Your TEOTWAWKI Resume -- 100 Words and 100 Pounds »
Letter Re: Mercenaries a Post-TEOTWAWKI Threat
Dear Jim,
Looking at the concept of mercenaries post TEOTWAWKI [mentioned
in Ron's
recently posted letter], I'm not convinced there is a valid threat there.
There are a lot of myths floating around about Blackwater specifically. I have
several friends on contract to them in various capacities from maintenance
to pilot to executive protection.
The relevant facts are that they are highly trained, highly paid (up to $1000
a day, depending on assignment and location), held to high standards of qualification
(must be honorably discharged veterans, no criminal background and with relevant
skill sets) and do specifically fall under the UCMJ when contracted to the
military or in association with the military (including executive protection
details on State Dept missions in Iraq). I keep hearing these stories of beer-bellied
yahoos who don't answer to anyone, but I've yet to see anything to substantiate
that apart from vague allegations in the press.
Obviously, if a government collapses, it will not be hiring troops in that
price range unless it's paying gold or foreign cash. Even if it could, convincing
politicians that 20 out of country mercs are better than 100 local recruits
is a long shot.
As to low-paid, second rate mercs, history is full of them. They tend to be
more hassle to the paymaster than any enemy.
I can't see what they'd be hired to do other than guard government installations
or private facilities with the desire and the money. "We're hiring you
to go rough up the civilians" doesn't seem either cost effective, worthwhile,
or doable, as in small groups they'd be readily defeated by numbers. And if
things are that bad, I won't be going anywhere near a government facility.
The
condottieri of the Middle Ages were specifically small bands with training
and weapons equal to the small local forces they faced--enough to defeat a
village or small town. Without lots of supplies, any modern equivalent would
just be another gang of armed men. In this case, armed professionals who'd
prefer to dig in and take control of an area, rather than be roving bands.
It's quite likely a few of them read survivalblog, and they're hardly the enemy.
If such groups existed, it would be worth allying with them to build a community.
Nor would they be likely to pillage an area, as it means less resources in
future.
It is possible, in case of a total collapse, that such would become feudal
lords. However, that would last only as long as they maintained the good will
of the locals and had ammunition. Modern systems of government are far more
effective and efficient. - Michael
Z. Williamson
« Letter Re: Running a Laptop from a Jump Pack in a Short Term Emergency |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Poll Results: Why are You Preparing to Survive?
Here is the second round of responses to this question: Those who are well
educated enough to see a societal collapse of some sort or another in the making
fall into two groups, the merrymakers and the preparers. The merrymakers don't
see life worth living post-SHTF, so
they live it up now. We on SurvivalBlog are the preparers and have chosen to
survive, but why? Our children? To rebuild civilization? Because the collapse
will only be temporary? Because we can and we're stubborn with a stronger than
normal will to survive? The following is the second batch of
responses. A few of the following poll responses exceeded
the one paragraph limit, but they had substance so I decided to post them,
regardless:
Jim,
The survival seed was planted at when as a young boy I entered our Ohio basement "fruit
cellar" and noticed the stock of canned goods, candles and other necessities.
My mother explained that we might need the items if the "weather turned
bad". We never did need those items in the 1950s but the idea stuck.
For my family [living] in Alaska, it just makes sense to provide yourself with
comfort items should the SHTF. We have a self sufficient setup which is accented
by
a complete, mobile camping outfit and further enhanced with ultralight backpacking
gear. We are experienced in the use of this gear.
Silly as it may sound, if hard times come we do not want to be inconvenienced.
That is the simple answer. And that includes begging others for help and standing
in line to ask that the government do something.
Most important, we have incorporated preparedness into a normal enjoyable lifestyle.
And it just plain feels right.
--
Life is tough. Challenges abound. Success is a drug that there is no anti-dote,
only garbage that clouds the “vision” to succeed.
Why prepare? When reading the responses to this poll, I noticed a common
reference
to a “near term” disaster such as “Katrina”. This truly
is a short term disaster. There is no reason that most of us can’t survive
any short term disaster. Let’s look back to the late 1920s
and early
1930s, or better yet, back to the original settler’s challenges,
those were Longer term, affecting several generations. Why do we make reference
to
the near term problems rather than the historic obstacles? I think it is a protective
mechanism that allows us to relate to “recent history” rather than “necessary
history”. Imagining a multi-generational collapse I admit is not in my
thinking, (to protect my fragile mind). But the labors of my grandparents and
their grandparents are not to trivial to be memorialized. History repeats
itself.
In the late twenties, a vast percentage of the population was “semi-self
sufficient” and lived in the rural area’s trading with neighbors
for the items needed that they did not produce themselves. Fast forward 80 years
and a scary few minorities produce the knowledge to be productive and have the
land to do so. Our forefathers could plan and survive even though difficult at
times, they did it. How will we as city dwellers with no productive skills for
the basics survive a similar economic tragedy? History repeats itself.
If more of us do not prepare, the likelihood of reverting back to the wagon train
era is inevitable. If we can do more now, it is prudent to the survival of this
great nation. This Nation is deserving of all of our love, and the things that
we don’t agree with can be politely demonstrated against, or we can use
the power we wield by voting for change. History repeats itself.
This country feeds the world, yet we squander it away in the pursuit of riches
by greed. What a disappointment to our forefathers to have what others want,
move it at all costs to further one’s pocket book, and not hold enough
back to help our family and friends. If everyone in this nation had a year’s
supply of food, then the vulnerability of this nation would greatly lessen, (see
the history of the noose that was placed around Russia and the tens of millions
that perished because of such starvation) After a “collapse”, our
productivity would be multi-generational leaps rather than microscopic advance,
if in fact we had the basics squared away. To get this great country back on
her feet, we need to first, take care of our needs so if the tragedy of life
happens, our focus can be productive, focused, and our return to glory inevitable. History
repeats itself.
Am I am optimist? Am I a pessimist? Am I aware of how things really are so delicate?
Do I love the country I live in enough to help bring her to her feet?
Be part of the solution, not part of the problem,…. An old saying is: “…problems
always work themselves out…” I don’t
want to be “worked out”, I want to help re-build, and not stress
in the basic needs of my family and friends, I want what I have now, the ability
to do much, and hopefully be surrounded by like minded friends no matter what
the economic situation of this country is. I love this country, I love my family,
I love the teachings of history even though history repeats itself. I love what
I have learned, and pray for what I have not. God Bless the USA.
--
Jim,
It occurs to me as I read the responses to this question that while I share
most of the reasons I am reading, including it is kind of fun, I also fear
that
I have within myself the capacity to do great evil if the need to provide
for my family in times of trouble comes and I am not prepared. In fact
this is
one of the questions I ask people whom I approach when they tell me something
vague about being okay. I ask them if they will really be able to sit by
and watch as their children starve? I get interesting looks and statements.
--
I first became interested in the whole survivalist concept as an ER doctor,
early in my career in the late 80's. What I saw is that the government cannot
help people prevent problems, it only "cleans up" and tallies data.
The police are the best examples of this (call the police when a burglar
enters your home and they will gladly come and take a picture of your dead
body). Although I had hunted since childhood, I only became interested in
concealed carry, etc., after seeing case after case in the ER where people
died or were maimed, while hoping/waiting for the cops to come. The cops
did come, but always after the bad guys had done their deed. So much for
that.
Over the past decade, my lack of faith in government "Helping" has
grown more pervasive (in part due to working as a DOD doctor
during Desert Storm I) and now focuses on Peak
Oil (about which the government
will never
inform
you in any truthful way until its too late) and the US Dollar (which the government
and its goons (e.g. Kudlow et al on CNBC) say is just fine, along with the
economy as a whole). There will be no functional oil by 2030, and by 2015 (that's
just 8 years away), we'll see $10 per gallon at the tank, if we're
luck and if China/India do not grow any faster than they already
are.
All h*ll will have broken lose by then, as nearly everything we use comes from
oil or is related to it (think antibiotics, clothing, food,
not to mention our incessant "happy motoring" to go to work and take
kids to/from school and other activities). We will not be able to depend upon
transport
of veggies from 1000's of miles away and may have trouble even getting water,
depending upon where you get yours, just for starters. The sheeple, as another
writer on this forum pointed out, will become wolves. The goal is to be a better
prepared wolf, with stores of food, medicines, farming and mechanical equipment,
guns and ammo.
Oh yes, the US Dollar (USD); it has dropped about 30% in the past three years.
Yes 30%! China has announced that it will diversify out of the USD, as has
most of OPEC, Russia, et al. Only Saudi and Japan continue to support the $USD
for oil scheme, and that won't last much longer. When the USD drops below
80 on the USD index, that's it; we'll see 30 or 40 within a year or so, and
that will be a 50%+ devaluation from present levels. If you
look at every country in the world that has had its currency devalued (always,
BTW a sure result
of over use of the printing press), social degeneration has followed. Ordinarily,
governments become totalitarian when that happens, but I suspect that the Peak
Oil situation will prevent our government from doing anything but jawboning.
Cops won't be able to enforce anything at $10/gallon gas.
Peak Oil + USD devaluation = total social/economic breakdown. And, BTW, I
agree with other writers who have pointed out that its "pie in the sky" to
think we'll "simply return to 1890 and live happily ever after." 1890
technology could not support a highly urbanized, work challenged and bloated
population like ours. 10,000 BC is more likely, only with pockets of technology,
and ammo,
and a much smaller population. The only question left is when, not if, and
when is likely within a decade.
--
Because no one with any sense of self respect likes being a loser.
--
Hi Jim,
My family prepares for bad times because it is inexcusable not to prepare.
Bad things happen all the time - job loss, illness, accidents, etc., - as
well as all of the possible natural and man-made
disasters that could occur. Preparation is insurance that your family will
get through a rough time. Not preparing is a deficiency of character and neglectful
to your spouse and kids. Being able to
survive more easily through bad times will greatly improve your physical and
mental situation if it happens. In addition, you will be in better shape to
help others should you need to. If nothing ever
happens in my lifetime I will be thankful and will enjoy having a bit less
stress in my life because I did everything I could to keep my family safe and
protected.
--
Beside the fact that I've read the last chapter in The Book (Revelation),
there's peak oil & the coming die-off as petrochemical resources become
scarce, population stresses, a government that seems hell-bent on totalitarianism
of one flavor or the other (I keep praying that cooler heads will prevail,
but the past couple decades' experience doesn't build much hope.), external
political & economic turmoil, pollution, terrorism, a resurgent Russia,
Chinese war drums, froggy dictators with nukes, a weakening dollar, the list
goes on and on. The worst part is each one of these either feeds off or feeds
into the others. I'm betting that my children & grandchildren will live
in a much different world than the one I grew up in. My prayers are that it
will be a better one -- but I also realize (and in some cases, I'm very thankful
for the fact) that sometimes God says "No!" So, I prepare -- and
I attempt to prepare my sons to live in a world that looks more like their
Grandparents' world during the Great Depression than the one I grew up in.
Keep a stiff upper lip & watch your Six!
--
First off, I love your novel "Patriots".
Regarding the survey: We prepare because of the core morality we have: that
we aren't victims
and
we
don't want to depend upon the government for our welfare since that would
make us slaves. I believe every other political view we hold comes out of
this core belief, be it regarding the 1st and 2nd Amendments, welfare reform,
public education,
taxes, business regulation, Federal Reserve policy, etc.
--
As to your query about why planning and striving to survive. At first I paused
and asked myself that same question...Why Survive? For what purpose? What will
I do when/if I do,
and when will I know that I have "Survived". I guess that initially
it came down to personal and immediate family survival. Our extended family
is fairly large and we are, what I consider to be, relatively "close" as
a family unit.
Although my immediate family considers me "alarmist" and "extreme" I
have still been planning and stockpiling as best that I can (afford) for all
of us when the SHTF.
(Whether the next "emergency" is natural or man-made.)
My personal survival is only to ensure the safety and well-being of my daughter
and to stand as a resister/witness against the "Anti-Christ".
National survival (the sovereignty of our Constitutionally-based government)
is doomed by the fact that the globalist cabal have already (over the last
couple of centuries) put into place people, politico-financial-industrial networks
and the military might to enforce their will, that resistance will be short
lived and futile. Our best effort will be to resist honestly and honorably
being witnesses against the evil that is closing its trap upon the unsuspecting
mass of sheeple. Although, conceptually, I can understand their reasoning,
I cannot in good conscience support their end result.
Survival, not just being a biological instinct, but in humans - a choice, we
are presented with not only mere physical requirements and consequences, but
also moral and ethical repercussions as a result of our choices. The faculty
of conscience, whether intact or corrupted, is a characteristic of God imbued
into mankind to act as a "moral compass" to influence and guide one's
actions. Our mind's/personality/character's (the soul's) decisions and consequent
actions are the basis upon which we shall be judged. So survival is not just
a matter of how we achieved it, but also how well we
achieved it.
Survival isn't just to get by, but to be able to provide the basis by which
our "way" of living (hopefully by the freedoms outlined in our Constitution)
continues into (at least) the next generation. We must do as much as we can
and as long as we are able. My personal "religious"/"reality" views
are that we all will "survive"; (continue on as beings) and that
our further existence will be far greater than that which we experience
now.
--
I prepare because I am responsible for my family. I also realize that even
if our government is able to respond, they will not be able to do so immediately.
Just look at the response times for police and fire departments. Three to ten
minutes is not unusual and that is when the phone system is working and there
is no snow storm or other disaster such as [Hurricane] Katrina.
--
I will survive because I'm too mean to die. Survival is a choice. Many people
choose to die rather than suffer the hardships that survival often requires.
In the next 10-to-15 years, the world population will almost certainly decrease
by 3-5 billion people for various reasons (mainly famine related to Peak Oil).
I plan to be one of the people who live. I don't have much interest in religion,
and I have no interest in leadership. People want to be sheep: let them follow
someone else to their doom. I will do what is necessary to survive and hopefully
enjoy the process as much as possible while I quietly duck away from trouble
others feel compelled to fight head on (and die in place). If you die for a
cause, you have failed at survival. Always remember that.
--
Because when I first heard the story of "The Three Little Pigs" I
got it. Make you house strong so the wolf can't blow it down. Do it right from
the beginning and the wolves wont get you. I have had a Survivalist mentality
since as early as I can remember. I think people have to be blind and deaf
to all around them not to catch on to the obvious, our lifestyle in
America is not stable. And no culture/society has ever been
stable. All the great ancient cities failed, USA is no dif
