Preparation, by definition, is this:

"1. the act of getting something ready. 2. a state of getting ready."

So what is it you are getting ready for? Are you taking action and making a plan? Are you stocking-up?
“Sure!” you say with enthusiasm “I am a prepper!”  You boast, as you align yourself with the great people of the past that were also prepared for catastrophes and unseen calamities of their day.

Today is my opportunity to give you some insight on a topic that might easily be overlooked. I want to touch on the subject of “preparedness”, specifically a mental preparedness. Maybe you’re thinking “Who cares about that?”
 
Just tell me the steps to making a wickiup (lodge) in my back yard!
 Hold on!  Let me give you another definition. Change: to cause to have a completely different form…to put another in place of.
Think on that for a moment. Your life will have a complete new form; your life style will have another style ‘put in its place’. Are you prepared for that? Is your family prepared for that?

If you are single and going it alone this wake –up call may still be for you but it is most definitely for the man that is family minded and wants to prepare for the survival of his kin.

Let me introduce myself, I am the wife of a survivalist-prepper.
I do not have any statistics to go off of, but I feel strongly that it is the man that has his families’ best interest at heart who takes on the task of getting ready for the end. Wives, please give me a moment of your time.
I’m thinking as I sit here by my woodstove, bundled in a blanket wearing my jacket (hat and all!)
 
Lately I can’t seem to get more than a few feet from this behemoth of heat before I feel the chill of winter begin to creep into my bones.
I am thinking about the wives of these pioneering men that we love. Those men, the fierce hunters, the brave and the strong, the man you married and trust to take care of you when the world collapses.
Wives, I ask are you preparing as well?

Are you just stocking up for a food shortage or are you planning on “going off the grid”?
Some of the greatest wisdom is to take the gift of learning from others mistakes. Though my words may seem ominous at times, I assure you I have only your success in mind. The mental attitude you take into your new life will factor into what you purpose to do.
If you’re a mother you will affect your children as well. Know it or not you are the hub of the home.
Never in my life was I one to sit around and wait till things got so far out of hand before I made a move. We have been told on many occasions that we are extreme people. Maybe that is because instead of talking about a thing, we will just go and do that thing. It has taken us everywhere in the U.S. and made us the hearty people we are today. Though we are very independent in our ways, it is by the grace and mercy of the Lord that we abide.

We chose to go all the way in our preparations for TEOTWAWKI, and we moved to an off-grid location. Years prior to the move, we bought acreage and paid the loan off early. I did not want any land payments to contend with during the building process.
Yet, before this enormous leap of faith many things came up. We even moved to Alaska and derailed our plans for off grid life by a couple of years, always keeping the notion tucked away in our mind.

As tough as Alaska was, moving to the foothills of the Adirondacks was even more brutal. We have had many mishaps and made tons of mistakes along the way. I glory in telling you that we have great successes and unmatched accomplishments from our endeavor as well.
Can you learn from a wife and mother that is currently living out the “worst case scenario”?

Mistakes:
My first mistake was letting my husband do everything.
Though I was there when the land was purchased, all I cared about was the quaint little town and how cute it looked. He was looking at hunting opportunities and the distance from town. I was still thinking about Wal-Mart, which by the way is nearly an hour from our location. He was already planning on gardens and feeding ourselves. I was not. Wasn’t the food in the sealed buckets enough of a plan?

I thought that I knew enough.  I really believed that all the years of reading and research would prepare me for what we were going to do. Studying about photo voltaic systems and learning about which batteries held the best charge. I studied what others did and drew plans for my own. I have to laugh because it doesn’t matter what system you buy, if the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing you simply have no power. Oh sure you can get a generator for all your needs. But wait, what if that breaks? And your back up breaks as well? If your husband is handy enough he will try making several other forms of power, as mine did. All systems challenged by nature and all failed at one point or another. The answer is this, learn to live without power. Set yourself up to live with none, and then add a little bit back into it. I had to come to the realization that I was not out here to sustain a life I already had, but to venture into a new way of life. I was having trouble making the adjustments.

When you are forced to boil water for bathing and are out in the cold September nights heating over a campfire to wash your children you will then be faced with the harsh reality that you live off-grid and life doesn’t get any tougher than this.

Don’t lie to yourself. If you tell yourself that you like camping, and this is just like a camping trip you are lying to yourself and you will be miserable. Consider this, what if your temporary situation becomes permanent? By that I specifically mean the bathroom. Yes, you better believe it, the toilet is a number one priority!  We have three children, one is a teenage girl. When the camper van toilet was no longer an option we had to go to a type of can privy thing. As if that wasn’t bad enough the area flooded and we had to wade through and jump on rocks to use the potty in the rain. Of course a new facility was built up on a deck and we felt spoiled for a while. Then the cold weather came. Can you mentally prepare yourself for no flushing toilet? Consider your alternatives now before you get into the situation.

Without water you will die. Mistakes were made here too. I brought two-liter bottles, lots of them. I would refill them at the laundry mat. All summer while we built our home with our own hands, I washed dishes in an outdoor kitchen. This took a toll on me. I always felt like everything was dirty. Then one day our super fantastic filters broke. I could no longer filter the water we drank. Think about the amount you have to boil for five people and animals too. We bought large holding tanks, but the rain was delayed. A four-wheeler and 35 gallon trash can were used to get water from the creek two miles away.

I will never forget the pastor's face when he came out to our cabin and saw the water collection system that was in place. It seemed that we never had enough time to get all the things done that needed doing. Our gutters were not up on the porch that was not built, so we had tarps that came down off the cabin to collect rain water into the tanks. Our tank was nearly empty. During his visit, it started to pour! He helped us push and pull the tarps to guide the water into the tank. We collected nearly 150 gallons every 20 minutes. It counted as our shower that day too!

Can you imagine our desperation of not having running water? I was not prepared for that mental challenge. In our community we are known as the modern day Ingalls. Today we have thousands of gallons of water on hand. Filtered and running freely. We know exactly how much we use each day.
Weather conditions; because we moved to a new area we were not completely knowledgeable about the summer or the winter weather.  Living in Alaska had prepared us for harsh below freezing temperatures if we drove in it or went outside, that is to say we knew about getting studs on our tires and dressing for -27? on a daily basis, and plugging in our vehicles so they would start in the morning, those types of things.

Where I made the mistake was that I did not take into consideration how I would actually heat the inside of the home. I took for granted that my warmth would be a readily available and come from a reliable source.

Our untested woodstove which was acquired in summer became a terrible distress in the winter. I never knew that a stove could be equivalent to a newborn baby.  It has needed feeding every two – three hours for months now. That adds up to a lot of sleepless nights.
Also, the insulation in our home never was completed. That is another thing I was not prepared for. I am not a carpenter. I am a stay at home mom that home schools the children. I can’t really build anything, well not something you can live in!  I was not prepared for the months of care my husband would need if or when he got hurt.

Another Mistake: normalcy bias. This is the mindset of “It can’t happen to me.”
This goes back to the first thing I mentioned about letting our husbands do everything. What will you do when the unthinkable happens?  If you are a team, then you need to do all the preparations as a team. Continue to be team minded. I did not know enough about what to do if my team member was out of commission. In my defense I would like to say that I am not a wimp either, we have had to super glue cut legs, from knife injuries and pull porcupine quills out of dogs, put animals down and more.
 You learn to do what is necessary, or worse things happen. However I did not even know where the hospital was located or which way to go when my husband had an accident with the circular saw. On a nice sunny day in November and he was outside working on the bathroom floor. Next thing I know he calmly says “I have to go to the hospital now." I am thinking "What?"
 “I am hurt real bad” he tells me. “I cut off my fingers” YIKES!
 “Do you have all the pieces?”

Now I am the prime care giver in every situation. He is gone for days. Who will turn on the solar? How will we actually get the things done that need doing? There are no light switches or plug receptacles. If you want power you need to know how to turn on the solar controller and the inverters, switch batteries over or start the generator etc.
You adapt and you learn.  I found out just what kind of metal I am made of.
 All was not lost; I didn’t quit and move into town. I snapped out of my comfort zone and I stepped up to the plate. Use whatever cliché you want, but my time came to step into my new identity forever and completely.
I can say that I am a prepper, and I can mean it. I have taken the steps of pulling the plug on a lifestyle that I was very comfortable in. My mental attitude now is that I can do this.

The greatest adversity you will ever overcome comes from what lies within you.
Yes, I can haul rocks and stack or chop the wood. I can gather water and have found new ways to get everyone and everything clean. I can cook with propane, campfires or on top of the wood stove.
 
I have made the best out of some of the worst things. I know that every time I climb my stairs I have victory over the trees that nearly crushed our cabin. We turned them into steps and wood flooring!

We live free of debt, because we paid cash for everything, we live free of the weight of society to have it all, because we know that we have what is really of value. We have each other and our time is our own.
We have become self- sufficient.  It came at a price, but it was worth the investment.

My simple steps to being mentally prepared:

1. Detox yourself from the Wal-Mart Super Center. It will close. You will not be able to go there WTSHTF. Can you accept that mental challenge? We started out waiting two weeks to shop, and then we worked our way up to six weeks. Can you stay away from the Super Center for six weeks?
2. Learn to do without. No one is coming to help you. If you do not take it with you, then you will need to know how to make it yourself or live without it.
3. Take the steps now to get your water harvesting system in place before you spend one night in your new off grid home. If you’re digging a well, have the proper documents taken care of and the well drilling done before you bring your family on site.
4. Learn to cook with little or no food. Seriously, try making some new dishes that are prepared from whatever you have before you go shopping. Try cooking on an open fire. That is a tough thing to learn but one of the joys I now have is making something delicious right outside on an open fire. Even in the rain. My family really appreciates my efforts all the more.
5. Have a back-up plan for the back-up plan. Trust your instincts because you cannot prepare for everything, no matter how much you prepare.
6.  Unplug now, why wait? When you could still step back into things if you wanted. Knowing that you’re doing this because it is your best decision for your family, that you took matters into your own hands is very empowering. Do you wait till you are forced to make the choice? Then it is no longer a choice and it becomes mandatory.
7. Let experience be your teacher. Get involved and learn some new trades. My little 6 year old can make fires using things like steel wool and parabolic lenses (supervised of course) My 8 year old can shoot a frog with his long bow, even in muddy water, and he can set snares too!
    My teenager is amazing, we especially like it that she makes fresh bread in the Dutch oven (and she taught herself through trial and error)
8. Do the “drastic” thing. We sold all of our real estate and most of our “stuff” (couches, furniture, appliances and extra baggage) we pooled our resources and made a budget to live off of and accomplish our goals. Do not expect your family or neighbors to understand; after all they are still addicted to the power grid.
9. This isn’t last by any means. We put God first in all that we do and know fully that He is the One that has given us strength and joy and peace in all our trials and our successes.

 My last question to you before I close is this, how will you even know you were prepared for TEOTWAWKI until it happens and you are in the midst of your new way of life? That day is the day you discover if you stocked enough food and ammo, should you have gotten a cow instead of the goat, bought gold instead of silver…etc. What I am saying is that you can never know if you built your house up high enough to avoid a flood, unless there is a flood. The difficulty then is that it is too late to do anything different.
I have the same mindset in my “prepping” tactics. Do what I can, and let the Lord do what I can’t.
 May I present this train of thought; the end is already here.
 Has there not been enough evidence that the world around us is different? What else needs to happen for us to wake up and take action?
Life around us is changing, a little each day.

If your being stirred to preparedness, then set your mind to that, go about it wholeheartedly without second guessing.  Everyone thought Noah was crazy too, but the rains came and they’re coming again. May The Lord Be With You.

James:
It's been interesting to see the buzz about coal lately. Certainly something worth looking in to. I'm not for or against it, but I do have a few comments:

If you are into blacksmithing, a coal supply will serve multiple purposes.

Not all coal is equal. High grade coal is less sulfurous than low grade coal, though I only notice that when I am working with open burning coals like over a forge. It may not be an issue in a stove. I don't know but it might be worth washing low grade coal. It's something I want to look into.

When I worked over coal every day for a few months, I developed a bad cough and wheeze. Ventilation in any context is important when dealing with coal.

Also, machine dug coal (which is all coal now) can be dusty. This too can be adverse to your health.

The spent coke from your coal could have many useful purposes, like as a substitute for vermiculite as a soil additive [, in moderation]. - J.D.D.

Hello Jim,
I would like to make a few observations on Dale's letter concerning alternative heat and home power.

My first would be his perspective on the use of propane as a primary fuel source.  I have used propane for heating, emergency spot heating (no electric required), cooking, and domestic hot water for more than a decade, and with proper planning it is a very reliable and cost effective fuel source that stores well long term, and can also be used to power most generators with an inexpensive conversion kit..  I currently have two 1,000 gallon above ground tanks, holding a combined 1,600 gallons, which can provide my energy use (minus electricity) for approximately 15-16 months of normal use, or 24+ months in austerity mode.  These tanks and associated hardware (regulators and plumbing) have paid for themselves many times over, due to the fact that a large bulk propane purchase in the summer can save upwards of $1 per gallon over peak winter prices.  Tank maintenance is as simple as keeping grass and other plants mowed or otherwise removed from the tanks, and the occasional wire brush and painting of places when the paint may peel.  In more than a decade I have had no issues with leaks, although we do shut off the valve from one tank until the other is nearly empty, in case that situation should occur.

Use of coal for home generation of electricity vs. its use at the utility scale is not only a matter of scale, but one of technology.  I have friends in the power generation business, and commercial power generation uses very fine tuned and sophisticated steam generation arrangements.  The coal is first powdered and injected with air into the firebox of the boiler system.  The dry (non-condensing) steam in the system runs at temperatures of 600+ degrees, with very high pressures, and is used in multistage turbines that are finely balanced.  Although a small version of this type of system might work at the home scale, the hardware would be cost prohibitive.  Small stationary boilers running steam generators and turbines or pistons (like the old steam locomotives) might be doable, but these actually require nearly constant management and maintenance, and if you don't know exactly what you're doing, can have catastrophic failure modes.  Operating such a system pre-SHF would also most likely require an operators license and inspections of the equipment.

One possible alternative would be a Stirling engine, like the ones manufactured by Stirling Technology Inc., in Athens, Ohio.  They claim that their ST-5 engine can power up to a 3.5 KW generator, using only a heat source.  I only know about this company because some friends who work at the local university and share my self reliance interests have mentioned it to me.  I don't know any of the details about the unit nor it's cost, but I do think that the required generator is not included.

One final thought on coal is something that I recall from a Mother Earth News article from perhaps 20 years ago.  The author dug a huge hole on the back of his rural property, lined it with rubber/plastic sheeting, dumped in something like 50 tons of hard coal, covered the coal with additional sheeting, and then replaced the soil.  He re-seeded the area with grass, and called it something like his personal post apocalypse coal mine.  I've never had the space or money for such a thing, and you might need to keep an eye out for the EPA if you did this today, but I've always remembered it as something I thought was a clever and interesting idea.

Good luck, - LVZ in Ohio

Mr Rawles,
To chime in on the "heat to electricity issue": A Stirling engine or "hot air engine"), might be what Dale from Vermont is looking for.  There are not many commercially available - one company was making them in New Zealand before the earthquake, but a quick Google search has also revealed that they moved their manufacturing to Spain. There may be others.  According to their web site they haven't yet resumed their 'off-grid' line of  engine production.

They can be quite efficient, and run off any heat differential.  For example: Hot air temperature and a cold spring, or a wood stove and cold air outdoors.  They do need the heat differential, or in other words a heat sink, to provide convection and motive power.  They are several generations/styles that have been developed over the years.  I believe they could be made to turn an alternator.  There are many 'do-it-yourself" videos on the net by people from all over the world. Hope that helps! - E.B.

James:
In response to article Some Thoughts on Burning Coal, writer Dale from Vermont:
 
There are possibilities for building a 12 or 24-volt low voltage direct current system using automotive or aviation industry components and a wonderful little device known as a RhoBoiler, devised by the Rhodesians during the time of economic boycott by the world's bully nations, which drove the Rhodies to greater self-sufficiency. The RhoBoiler varied in design and construction materials [often a former 44-gallon fuel drum] but was in general a low pressure remote boiler from which hot and sometimes pressurized water was supplied.
 
A recent web search turns up a few descriptions and pictures. An obvious starting place might be a scrapped-out water heater boiler, but obviously, pressure release valves are critical, lest a boiler explosion result. Most of the RhoBoilers were wood burners, given the local availability of wood as a fuel source, but the concept can certainly be adapted to coal-burning and electricity generation as well.

See:

• GreatNorthRoad.org
• Panoramio.com
• The Rhodesian boiler at Claviantica.com
• Flickr.com
  

Regards, - George S.

JWR:
Dale from Vermont wrote about the idea of a coal-fired home generator. Here's a link to a $13,000 steam engine unit. The electrical output isn't specified, but based on the 3 horsepower rating of the steam engine and
assuming about 40% heat-to-electricity efficiency, it might be as much as 1,000 watts - D.B. in Oregon

Sir,
Probably the biggest gap in our survival preparations at present is having a good source of energy if we have to stay underground for an extended period. If surface conditions are such that we cannot venture outside, then most likely there will be problems with our photovoltaic panels, solar water heater and hydropower, all of which are above ground. With currently available technology, propane seems to be the only reasonable solution to support heat, hot water, and electricity. Propane can be stored indefinitely and furnaces, stoves and generators that run on propane are readily available. However, storing enough propane underground to support our group for several years would be impractical. I'm also uncomfortable storing large amounts of propane for many years, since it seems inevitable that it will leak eventually, presenting a safety issue as well as a loss of the resource. Most people, including serious preppers, don't plan to rely on propane for more than a few days. For those with solar and hydro solutions that can work without pause for years, a 3-day backup system in the form of propane seems superfluous.

I keep coming back to coal. Like propane, it can be stored forever [if protected from weathering.] (Before it's mined, it's basically being stored indefinitely underground in a mine.) With existing, mature technology, coal can support all the things propane can be used for: heat, hot water and electricity. Unlike propane, there's no danger of leaking, and it's much more practical to store tons and tons of coal underground than it is to use buried propane tanks. There's only one problem: unlike propane, electrical generators that run on coal are not readily available for individual household use. This seems strange, since coal is the number one energy source for electricity generation at the utility scale.

Are you or my fellow readers aware of any practical, reasonably efficient solutions for home electricity generation using coal as an energy source that don't require an engineering degree to implement (if I had the skills I'd just build the generator from scratch myself)? I would be willing to pay a significant amount of money for such a system.

Thanks in advance, and best wishes. - Dale from Vermont

[JWR Replies: When ever wood heat or coal heat are mentioned in the blog, invariably someone will then Thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology . Unfortunately that technology hasn't matured sufficiently to be reliable. Sadly, TEG circuits burn out with alarming regularity. So steam power--at least for now--seems to be the only reliable way to turn heat into electricity. Perhaps some readers would care to chime in with some alternatives.]

Financial calamity can take many different forms.  The Brazilian saga of hyperinflation / depression / recovery from the 1980s leading to one of today’s most robust economies is a classic tale of overcoming adversity.  Argentina’s economic collapse in 2000-2001 followed by hyperinflation in 2002, debt repudiation and seizing foreign deposits is another story with a solid recovery afterwards.  The disastrous 20-year Japanese experiment with deflation and negative growth is at the other end of the spectrum.
Which will the US experience first?  And, how quickly will we feel the scorching fire of hyperinflation or the freezing blast of deflation?
The short answer is that today we should be preparing for a recession in the near future with actual deflation in certain sectors.  We also need to anticipate the possibility of a deflationary spiral into the “Great Correction.”

As the economy struggles through the next recession, we need to be alert for signals that the Federal Reserve has screwed up and overshot its goal of controlling deflation.  A big miss with too much monetary expansion and the US economy could lurch into hyperinflation with very little warning.
In JWR's novel Patriots, our heroes experience an occupation force of primarily European UN troops.  Today, that seems unlikely but only because the European countries are determined to make a bigger mess of their economies even more quickly than the US.  After all, politicians in Europe have over-promised for even longer than politicians in the US.  The cost of providing the European welfare state has proven far more expensive than forecast, and the bill is now past due.

Almost everybody watching the Euro crisis has concluded that Europe is headed straight into a major recession – regardless whether or how the Euro crisis is solved.  The recently mighty Euro has been steadily losing value to the US dollar and is no longer a candidate for a replacement reserve currency.  In fact, Euro-denominated assets, especially the government bonds of Greece, Italy, and Spain, are almost toxic.

Updated Collapse Scenario
Does that mean that the disaster scenario in Patriots needs to be updated?  No way.  In fact, all that matters is that Patriots provides a realistic scenario that could easily lead to the rapid collapse of infrastructure especially in large cities.  The story line makes the point that rational people need to be prepared for the worst and that working together is much better than going it alone.  The take-away message is about being prepared and not about the details of which camouflage pattern or what brand of battle rifles.  If those details stick in your mind, that’s great, but the real lesson is to think ahead and start planning before Schumer comes knocking.
In the meantime, we have to get on with our life in today’s real world.  The characters in Patriots had to deal with their particular environment; we have ours.  Each of us gets to deal with our jobs, our family and friends, and “our” government.
Keep in mind that how you define a problem can artificially constrain how you think about the solution.  If you imagine that the most likely problem is hyperinflation and soon, that framework might justify spending critical savings to stockpile supplies before prices skyrocketed.
But if, as I predict, the US will deal with several years of recession first, the heavy spender might use up critical savings needed to deal with an unexpected problem like major illness or loss of a job.  Also keep in mind that the frugal saver who does reasonably well in a recession may overlook or ignore the warning signals for hyperinflation and see the value of his savings evaporate in a few months or even weeks.

Being an International Banker
My first job out of business school was trading foreign currencies in Beirut for one of the largest American banks and then as branch manager in another Middle Eastern country. After several more job moves including working as the international treasurer for a Fortune 500 company, I was recruited to head up global treasury management for the largest bank in the US.  Eventually, I left the financial sector and got a real job running a company that manufactured products in the US.

Like many people I read the news headlines and generally ignore the daily ups and downs of the stock market.  Most of my attention goes to more technical articles following trends in currency swaps, forward currency transactions or futures, inter-bank lending rates, national bond offerings, and changes in credit default insurance rates.  Not very sexy stuff, but these details paint a clearer picture of world events than the sound bites carried on television news.

As a banker, I was paid to make bets on major currency movements and the direction of national economies.  Sometimes, I was just plain wrong and lost money.  Occasionally, I had the right trend or direction but was way off in the timing.  That also counted as a loss.  Fortunately enough of the bets paid off, and I kept my job.

Most of us may not recognize the reality, but today everyone in the United States is making a daily bet in the world’s foreign currency markets.  We are all international economic forecasters.  What happens in Greece or China or Japan has a direct impact on the US dollar, the US stock market, the rates on US savings accounts, the price we pay for bread, or the cost to fill up our Toyota, Hyundai, or Chevrolet.

Major Bets
You say, “Wait, I don’t even own stocks.  I’m sitting tight hoping that everything blows over.” My friend, that is a bet – a very big one.  You are betting on the status quo.  In fact, you are putting your livelihood and your savings on the line placing a number of bets at the casino every day.  By doing nothing, you are actually making the following very specific bets, for example:
a.)            The Euro-zone remains intact;
b.)            None of the European Club Med countries default;
c.)            Crude oil stays between $80 and $120/barrel, and the Middle East stays peaceful;
d.)            The Federal Reserve can and will keep interest rates between zero and 2% for at least two more years;
e.)            The Fed’s interventionist policies will keep the US from a recession in the next two years or at least until the presidential election is over;
f.)            The Muni bond crisis in the US will be postponed at least a year;
g.)            Obama will win his second term as President; and
h.)            Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker John Boehner will continue their ineffectual sparring with neither party making much ground in the 2012 elections.
The list could go on, but I think you see the point.  Taking no action is a gigantic sucker bet.
By the way, you also made the bet (correctly) that Obama would keep his word and that troop withdrawals from Iraq would proceed according to plan.  After all, everyone knows that Iraq and Afghanistan have been completely pacified and are capable of responsible self-rule without any assistance from the Evil Empire.  Further, there is absolutely nothing that could disrupt the steady supply of Middle Eastern oil to Europe and Asia – not even the Ayatollahs of Iran and the Straits of Hormuz.
When you placed those wagers, you were making the exact same bet that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is making, namely an ever-increasing federal deficit can be financed indefinitely by an ever-expanding supply of cheap credit.
Further, this surplus of credit, according to Keynes and all his disciples, will lead only to moderate but not excessive growth which will allow the US to solve all of its economic problems by the end of the second Obama administration. 

Bernanke is too old to have such faith in the Tooth Fairy, and so are you.

The European Mess
Each week for the last several months, the press has alternated with good news that the Euro crisis has been fixed once and for all with the following week’s announcement that some new catastrophe has derailed last week’s bailout plan or solution or new treaty or whatever.  My personal bet is that at least one of Club Med countries will default on its bonds in the next six months.  Frankly, it doesn’t matter whether the first to go is Greece, Italy or Spain.

The most likely consequence of any major national default is that this will be the final trigger point for a long-term recession in Europe with repercussions in the US economy and the rest of the world.  Even without a specific trigger, Europe will slide inevitably into recession generally considered to be two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
How likely is it that a major recession in Europe will lead to another recession here?  Most economists and central bankers think it will happen quickly once the house of cards called the European Union starts to tumble.  In fact, many of the most common measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research already point to an extended decline here in the US in real income, actual vs. reported unemployment, retail sales, and industrial production as well as other key measures.
Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner believe in the linkage, and the Federal Reserve has already taken extraordinary steps to delay the inevitable collapse in Europe just to postpone the recession here.

International Monetary “Easing”
On November 30, 2011, the Federal Reserve issued a press release announcing greater availability and lower pricing for “temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements.”  What really happened is that Bernanke, without the approval of Congress, agreed to make the Federal Reserve a lender of last resort to the rapidly failing commercial banks in Europe.  These banks have enormous exposures to various European national bonds, and the Fed is effectively taking on that liability.  You read it correctly - the commercial banks.  The US taxpayer is now backstopping the shareholders of foreign banks.
A press release announcing a done deal means that there were weeks or months of intense, behind-the-scenes negotiations as well as position papers and PowerPoint presentations detailing the consequences of opening up that credit window.  These documents have not been and probably never will be released.  Where is Wikileaks when you really need it?
Will these new credit facilities change the outcome?  Not really.  Utilization of the credit facilities may slightly delay the starting date for the European recession, but the sad truth is that the US government and the US taxpayer is now much more exposed to a commercial banking collapse in Europe.
We thought that the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) had occurred here in 2008 and 2009 to avoid the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns and the collapse of the US banking system and AIG.  Not satisfied, Bernanke is now offering bail-out money to Europe’s banks.

The Euro Summit and the “New Treaty”
Clearly the 27 Euro-zone leaders believed that a major recession would be the best outcome they could expect from the spreading Euro crisis unless they took extraordinary action.  The 27 heads of state participated in an all-nighter in Brussels on December 8 and 9.  The result is that member states have been asked (blackmailed?) to ratify an amendment to the European Union treaty setting new mandatory economic guidelines.
The most important requirement is that each country must take active measures to reduce “structural” deficits to no more than 3% per year.  This means drastically reducing the maximum amount by which any country can outspend its net tax revenues.  This was the non-negotiable demand that German Chancellor Merkel imposed on all the member countries at the Euro Summit.
What the Germans wanted and got was agreement that member countries would reduce their deficits by immediately cutting government spending and simultaneously raising tax revenues.  “Cutting government spending” is Euro-speak for firing a significant number of government workers and reducing funding for government programs.

In addition to cutting public sector employment, these measures will lead to a further loss of jobs in the private sector.  The obvious consequence all across Europe is greater unemployment, a further loss of consumer confidence, a continuing reduction in consumer spending, and a corresponding decrease in capital expenditures by businesses.  To that recipe for economic disaster, stir in the simultaneous requirement to raise tax revenues.

Tie Your Hands
With this toxic combination how can the EU member countries avoid an outright recession?  Not possible.  This was the reality that every head of state knew in advance of the Brussels summit and had already accepted. Even more amazing is that all of these government leaders also agreed to keep from using the conventional Keynesian tools for fending off or turning around a recession including reducing taxes or increasing government spending.  They have tied their hands behind their backs even before the fight started.  You have to ask was this  the epitome of stupid politics, or were these leaders even more afraid of the inevitable economic catastrophe from a collapse of the Euro? How long before this new treaty is effective – if ever?  According to a Reuters article, French President Sarkozy admitted that the earliest expected ratification was June, 2012.  Obviously, the “big rescue” is not a “quick rescue.”  In the meantime both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have placed almost all European countries on credit watch, often the first step before a down-grade in credit rating and a major increase in borrowing costs.

Too Little and Too Late
Many commentators have opined that the simmering Euro crisis will boil over long before the new treaty can be approved.  The summit got great press coverage, and the Euro leaders got to pat themselves on the back.  But, an honest assessment has to be too little real substance and way too late to do any good.
Put the pieces together.  Europe’s leaders have basically given up and are reconciled to a large and extended recession beginning no later than the first half of 2012 along with a big jump in public and private sector unemployment plus major increases in national borrowing costs.  By accepting Germany’s terms, the members of the EU have also agreed in advance to a very slow recovery from the inevitable recession.  No reason for optimism here.

The Toilet Bowl Spiral
First, what is the practical definition of deflation?  Second, why is it such a big deal?
The official definition of deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services typically measured by a decline in the Consumer Price Index.  In other words, real inflation drops below zero measured against the prices of a consumer basket of goods and services.  The major concern is that deflation can get out of hand and lead to a deflationary spiral.
In this type of downward spiral, the vicious circle starts as businesses try to maintain or increase demand by lowering prices (think Christmas sales).  If lower prices fail to stimulate demand, businesses have no choice except to lower production or reduce retail inventory depending on where they are in the delivery chain.  Manufacturers fire excess workers and cancel any plans to increase plant capacity.  Retailers place smaller than normal orders and leave empty shelf space.

Unemployment goes up, real income goes down, real estate prices continue to plummet, tax revenues at all levels go down, and the deficit gets even bigger.  City, state, and federal governments – especially since they have already borrowed too much money – are finally forced to cut non-essential services and begin reducing essential services such as fire and police.
And, the municipal bond market takes a big hit as several major cities and one or more states default on interest payments and fail to pay vendors.
Then, even more government entities are forced to cut more public employees but usually not near the top where it would help.  Unemployment goes up again; aggregate income goes down even further; consumer borrowing drops more; consumer demand drops faster and further; and prices drop yet again to chase decreasing demand.

The Spiral Continues
Businesses create no new jobs.  There are no new housing starts.  New automobile production gets cut again.  As the spiral continues, businesses have to reduce their payroll even more by firing the most recently hired, by eliminating all entry-level jobs, and by firing the most expensive hourly workers – usually the oldest ones.  They even start firing middle management.  Just for the record, the last thing they cut is executive compensation.
There are two really important reasons for understanding why deflation is such a big deal – especially right now.  The first is that once this vicious cycle gets a good start, it is really hard to stop until it bottoms out like it did in the Great Depression.  Second, and maybe even more important today is the realization that deflation is at the current intersection of a massive academic ego and partisan politics.

Bernanke’s Ego and Obama’s Political Ambitions
Assuming that the Republican Party can eventually nominate any plausible candidate, even Waffle House Romney, Obama knows that the most important issue in his re-election campaign will be the economy.  Unlike Europe’s leaders, Obama cannot afford to give up and accept the inevitable recession unless he is also willing to be a one-term president.  He will do everything he can and support any idea no matter how far-fetched that has the slimmest hope of injecting good news into the gloomy economic picture. But Bernanke’s motivation is even more dangerous.  Ben Bernanke graduated from Harvard College and earned his Ph.D. from MIT.  He taught at Stanford Business School and NYU before becoming a tenured professor at Princeton.  His entire academic career focused on the policy decisions leading to the Great Depression.  In numerous papers and articles, he has expounded his theory that uncontrolled deflation triggered the Great Depression and delayed recovery.

While at Princeton, he was appointed a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in 2002.  He became Chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors in 2005.  Bush nominated him as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, and he was reappointed to that position by Obama in 2009.  He is now able to treat the US economy as one giant laboratory in which to test his academic theories.
Nine years ago, then-Fed Governor Bernanke gave a speech called “Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here.”  Read Bernanke's words and weep:

"Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it.  If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation."

The Magic Printing Presses
In fact, Bernanke has been pushing and pulling the economic policy levers in an unprecedented way since he became Fed Chairman under Bush.  Even with access through the Freedom of Information Act, the public may never know who really said what to whom as the federal government struggled with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the almost bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, the catastrophic melt-down of the sub-prime mortgage market, and the bailout of the banks that were “too big to fail.” What is clear is that the US tumbled into a recession, and the Fed under Bernanke’s direction did everything possible to contain it.  Some economists argue that it would have been better to allow capitalism to run its course, let the failures occur, and set the stage for a real recovery. The recession that started in 2008 continued in 2009, and true to his fervently held beliefs Bernanke injected massive amounts of money into the US economy, especially after Obama became President.  We can debate whether the bailouts were necessary or even beneficial, but for right now, that issue is irrelevant.  The world learned a crucial lesson about the way that Bernanke and Obama will handle any major economic crisis.

Avoid deflation at all costs!  Roll the presses!
The US Treasury has the national mints, but the Federal Reserve has printing presses.  Some of the presses are real intaglio printers used to print currency, and they are churning out new Federal Reserve funny money in larger denominations and greater quantities 24/7.  But the really dangerous ones are the virtual presses that put digital money on balance sheets without any intervening creation of goods or services.
One obvious example is “Quantitative Easing.”  This term deliberately obscures the real meaning.  Translated it means that the Federal Reserve purchases US government bonds from private holders (e.g., commercial banks) and pays for them by simply making digital entries in the selling bank’s account at the Fed.  No new goods or services.  No Congressional approval.  More money in the system.
Let’s admit that the whole world – China, Europe, the oil producing countries, and the US – face recession and possibly deflation.  We know for sure that Bernanke is self-righteous in his view that with enough money he will reverse deflation and avoid the deflationary spiral.  And, Bernanke believes that history will lavish great praise on the economist turned super-hero who saves the world.

Near-Term Forecast
Europe, will continue the inevitable slide into recession despite the best efforts of the European Central Bank (with no printing presses and no authority to manufacture money) and the Federal Reserve (with all printing presses working overtime).
On a slightly slower timetable, the US will slide back into recession as well.  Bleating like a lost little lamb, Obama will “encourage” the Democrats to create jobs, to tax the rich, to save the unions, to preserve jobs for public employees, to keep their pensions intact, and to preserve at all costs every single entitlement program, such as Social Security.
The Republicans will continue the full range of political brinkmanship.  Compromise is unlikely.  Nothing significant will happen to create jobs, reduce spending, or actually change the debt level for at least a decade.  In other words, same old stuff except that the government will officially acknowledge what we already knew in our pocketbooks.  The US is in another recession less than two years after the federal government declared a victory over the last one.

With the prospect that a back to back recession could easily lead to deflation and the dreaded spiral, Super-Hero Bernanke without any congressional oversight will be busy doing his magic.  The money supply will increase.  Interest rates will stay down.  Even so, commercial and consumer borrowing will drop.  Real estate will drop even further.  Frustrated because the story-book ending is not working out, Bernanke will pour even more money into the system.  After all, Ben runs the risk of losing his super-hero cape.
In summary, until this phase of Bernanke’s grand experiment with the American people runs its course in 24 to 36 months, you can count on three things:
1.)            Recession with a 30% or more chance of significant deflation.
2.)            Overcast conditions with no glimmer of sunshine from a grid-locked Congress.
3.)            Heavy precipitation in the form of money and credit raining down from the Federal Reserve.

This is the good news, and I fervently hope that we get a two-year run!

Black Swan Theory
The bad news is that the economic environment could go from recession to much worse very quickly if any one of several unexpected events occurred.  The “Black Swan Theory” holds that highly unpredictable events with low probability have a major impact often because we have overlooked such events and have ignored the huge impact of these supposedly rare occurrences.
For example, we can see that the list of possible disasters might include a spike in energy prices, another major terrorist attack on US soil, North Korea flexing its nuclear arsenal, the bankruptcy of the US Postal Service, or another major conflict in the Middle East.
Precisely because these events seem possible or even likely, they are not Black Swans.  But, if we think outside the box, we can speculate on events that might change everything – at least in their immediate sphere.  For example:
1.)            President Obama decides not to run for a second term, and Hillary Clinton becomes the 45th President.
2.)            North Korea offers to reunite with South Korea, and South Korea destroys its own economy in the process.  This leads to a collapse of the Asian “Tigers” in a mirror of the Euro crisis.
3.)            Iranian Hezbollah agents from Lebanon set off a small-scale nuclear device in Tel Aviv.  Israel retaliates against Syria and Iran.
4.)            The housing bubble in China explodes leading to full scale riots in six to ten cities that are quelled only with massive military force.  Chinese exports decline; imports, especially of raw materials, stop almost completely.
5.)            The national referendums on the new EU treaty trigger bloody rioting in Greece followed by popular uprisings in Spain and Portugal reminiscent of the Arab Spring in Egypt and Libya.  The Euro dies a painful death bringing down major commercial banks and private sector companies.
6.)            King Abdullah is assassinated, the Allegiance Council of the House of Saud is unable to name a successor, warring factions take over the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior, and oil shipments stop.
These ugly events almost qualify as Black Swans, but the fact that we can conceive of them and have some idea of their impact might take them out of the category.  You have to imagine something even more unpredictable and more capable of sweeping change.  You will know it when you see it.

Near-Term Conclusions
Increased self-reliance is the best plan to get you and your family through the next two to three years.  For that short period, the US dollar will be the safe haven currency – not gold or silver.  Individuals, corporations, and governments around the world will decide to hold greenbacks and not local currencies or hard assets.
In fact, one possible explanation for the huge drop in gold in the last several months despite the Euro-crisis on the front pages is that major gold investors have already concluded that recession is the near-term problem not hyperinflation.

Study the SurvivalBlog “List of Lists,” and plan your expenditures carefully.  Look for sales and discounts.  Smart retailers have already figured out that consumers have become deal conscious and realize that retail prices have to drop to get customers in the door.
If at all possible, avoid taking on more debt other than student loans (just the opposite advice if hyperinflation were on the immediate horizon).

Given any reasonable opportunity, get out of an urban or suburban mortgage.  Even on an after-tax basis, renting makes more sense than owning.  Commercial and residential real estate will take another big drop in the next two years.
Before signing any contract extending more than 60 to 90 days, make sure that you are protected against wild price swings and unusual government delays of any sort.
Be prepared to dump digital cash and digital assets, i.e., bank deposits and brokerage accounts, on very short notice.
Have you been putting off a decision about relocation?  If you already live in a major urban area in the West like Denver, Phoenix, or Cheyenne, you are much better off than if your job keeps you in Cleveland or Harrisburg.  Use this window to visit some of the best candidates on your list.
If you decide to purchase silver dimes and take possession, don’t be surprised to see silver drop even lower before gold and silver surge past their previous highs.
Now is the time to develop additional skills that might be marketable in tough times and to look for financially secure employers.  Plan ahead for the consequences if one of the major bread winners in your family were to lose their job.
Even in the middle of the recession, keep a vigilant eye on the early symptoms of hyperinflation.  Anticipate a Black Swan event.  Be prepared to implement Plan B instantly.

Make a Plan B
Let’s assume that my conclusion regarding the near future is a good working forecast and that the next two years are bad but not ugly.  Even so, each of us has to be prepared to change our direction and actions on the spot.  In my experience, the best way to do this is to have a genuine contingency plan or “Plan B” worked out in advance.
Start with the assumption that some aspects of your plan will not work or will be just plain wrong.  Once you have developed a plan and worked out the implementation, changing that plan to fit the circumstances that unfold is much easier and quicker than doing a Plan B from scratch.  Unless you need to plan only for yourself, the other great benefit is that family or friends or members of your prep group are all on the same page.  Do the discussion before the crisis.
Although it may not be a part of your action steps, I recommend that your Plan B specifically address possible trigger points and that you get buy-in to take action as soon as certain trigger points are reached.  Even during the next two years of recession, an abrupt turn to hyperinflation is a real possibility.

• Be alert to the early warning signs of hyperinflation.
• Have your money out of the banks before the lines of angry depositors form.
• Buy gas or diesel and storage containers before prices take off.
• Practice packing and know how long it will take and what you really can carry.
• Get home or bring family home while airlines are still flying.
• Be prepared to leave Dodge City near the front of the convoy.

I've been struggling with an age-old problem trying to find a safe way to carry gasoline in my vehicle. I found a way I would like to pass along. Typical five gallon plastic or metal cans don't cut it. I'm a former EMT, so I've seen what a collision does to a vehicle carrying a five gallon can in the trunk, and it's not pretty.

I want a metal shell around a plastic bladder filed with aviation foam.  Paranoid?  Yes.  Possible? Absolutely! It turns out you can get fairly low cost racing fuel cells from several sources that meet the bill - and two of them will fit in the trunk of my Prius or back of my Jeep. See this at Amazon: RJS Racing 32 Gallon Fuel Cell. These sell for $269 including shipping. You can get the same fuel tank without the metal shield but with aviation foam for about $150.

In my Prius, that gives me an un-refueled range of 3,330 miles, allowing a coast to coast run with gas to spare or dash and back x2 from Northern California to Northern Idaho.

Which gives me more options than the average bear. - Michael M.

We now have indoor plumbing and a Wal-Mart, along with the millions of acres of wooded wonderland. Some of our forests are so dense and vast that even the DNR officers have become lost. We are alive with moose, wolf, cougar and black bear, to name a few. My husband and I are in our mid 50s and bought our 40 acres of forest in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula 20 years ago. Can you believe it; we paid only $13,000 for our woods and small cabin? Back then, no one in his or her right mind wanted to live in this harsh, almost Siberian-like wilderness, especially in the winter. It was a time when the only good paying jobs were in logging and mining and we still had a four party telephone system. Many places did not even have electricity. It is crazy how much things have changed in a few short years.

Back when we were settling into our new forest environment, we quickly discovered that the old-fashioned back yard garden becomes a lesson in futility until one learns that Mother Nature owns your butt. You do not do anything in this neighborhood, without her permission. Mesmerized by the warming of your world in early spring and the arrival of the first fawn, the chances are good that you have forgotten who is running the show. By mid spring, dear Mother will send a massive cloud of no see ems to eat out your eyeballs. By late summer, her army of Deer flies and Mosquitoes arrive to finish the job of reminding you that her justice is real.

At the beginning of winter, which can come anytime after the second week in September, Mother Nature unleashes her heavy cloud formations and delivers them in off Lake Superior. By mid-December, cranky, old man winter gets his gears moving and orders his cold winds to storm down from the Canadian arctic. The old guy mixes it up with Mother Nature and together they can dump an average snowfall for the season of 100 to 300 inches depending how close to the pristine, moody, Lake Superior you are. The Upper Peninsula is rich in soil minerals, however most soil for growing crops is horrible. A soil PH of 7 is a great find and is much treasured.

My reason for setting the stage is that one of the biggest obstacles of living up here will be fresh food. Having the ability to hunt and loads of dehydrated food is great but we need live, fresh food too. Therefore, the question is; how do you grow food in such an inhospitable climate and rotten soil? There is very little farming in the upper peninsula, and only one or two families make a living from strawberry u-pick farms, a couple of blueberry farms and a select few potato growers, that is it. Notice the crops mentioned like an acidic soil?

Our mission has been to grow a years worth of food without spending a shipload of money. Our ideal system would be a sturdy greenhouse and a low or no cost heating unit. Solar is almost useless during the time that we would need it the most, so we crossed it off our list. In the beginning of our homestead, we built a makeshift greenhouse out of windows the neighbors had donated to get them out of their garage. It was fun to build and use. Glass is wonderful for use as a greenhouse but the wooden frames eventually rot due to moisture and mildew. It served us well for almost 8 years but the needed repairs exceeded our budget, thanks to a lot of wind and a falling tree branch.

With paper and pencil in hand, we figured out the size of the new greenhouse we would need and the amount of cash we could afford to spend. We wanted to be able to extend the season by two months in both directions since our growing season barely makes 90 days some years. (Some of the old timers say that they have seen it snow at least once, in every month of the year.) It is also not out of the realm of possibilities for the temperature to fall to -40 or -50 on a clear night, although normally it only gets 20 below. There is just no growing anything from November to February here either, even if you had megabucks to spend on heating a greenhouse or had a good south-facing window. There just is not enough sunlight to do the job without very expensive artificial lighting. People living in Maine for example, do not seem to have the problem we do with dark cloud cover for those 3 months of the year. During December and January, it is totally, 100% dark at 4:30 P.M. (central), in the afternoon, another reason we won’t even try to grow in that part of the winter.

We began saving some our limited dollars and eventually were able to purchase a corrugated polycarbonate greenhouse, 16ft. X 20ft. (It is smaller than what we had hoped for, but money being hard to come by we settled on what we could afford.) I want to kiss the person who invented this type greenhouse. I was in love! It was delivered the second week of March during a blinding snowstorm. Needles to say, we did not get it up until June and much bad language from hubby. For the first couple of years we were unable to use it from late October to late April. We could only extend the season a couple of months in the spring and a few weeks in the fall, we wanted more. It needed heat to take advantage of what this beautiful polycarbonate building had to offer. After a winter’s worth of research, we came up with a plan. Using ideas and experience from several authors, we put something together that is relatively inexpensive to get started but holds up well and works fabulously. Most of it is made from scrap or junkyard salvage. For the very first time, I grew beautiful sweet potatoes. (These critters are delicious but space intensive. I just wanted to see if I could do it.) Here is what we did.

Before we put up the polycarbonate greenhouse, we had 3 yards of gravel brought in and dumped. At the time, we were only interested in making a level spot for the greenhouse. The spot we had chosen had a great south facing view but had a sizable slope to it. The hill had too much of a slope to put up a greenhouse without added material. The dump truck left a mountain of gravel right where we wanted it. We hauled and leveled the huge pile by hand which took about three full days. The instant the area was leveled and smooth, we unboxed the greenhouse parts and got things sized, measured and eventually, up.

When the time came to put in some sort of heating, we decided on a modified version that we found in a book called “Solviva”, by Anna Edey. Anna had a grant to build her experimental greenhouse, so she was able to have solar panels and all the gizmos and gadgets that go with solar as a back up heat. Too expensive for us, but what she covered in the book that we used was the example for a wood fired device she had in the center of her massive greenhouse. We used her idea and modified it to fit our greenhouse.

Parts list;
55-gallon metal barrel cut in half, long ways.
An old metal bed frame, taken apart.
Angle iron, one eight footer should be enough.
Steel plate 26” x 40” 1/8 inch thick. Thicker would work but this is what we had on hand.
4” chimney pipe, purchased~ not very expensive.
Two small hinges, taken from a barn door.
Woodstove gasket
First, we found an old 55-gallon barrel and cut it in half-long way. Make sure the barrel did not have toxic material in it. Next we hand dug a hole in the back center of the greenhouse, deep enough to fit the half barrel. I think the hole was about 20 inches deep, 45 inches long and 30 inches wide. You will need room to lower the half barrel into the hole and backfill around it.

Next, we found an old metal bed frame and dismantled it. We kept only the sidepieces, the two pieces that hold the mattress. Hubby then cut two lengths to fit either side of the half barrel, since the sides will be weight bearing. Next, he found some sturdy angle iron and cut four of them slightly longer than the width of the barrel; these will sit on the bed frame sidepieces. Fill in any gaps with wood stove gasket. (The first year we had this up and running, we put the barrel level with the gravel as that is what Anna did in the book. She also used longer angle iron across the barrel and sunk them into the backfill before laying down the sheet metal. Her model was much bigger due to the size of the space she was heating.) Next, hubby cut a sheet of steel plate ½ inch longer and wider than the half barrel. Looking at the steel plate long ways measure in 14 inches and make a cut on that line. On this, you will put two small hinges before placing it on the top of the barrel. The hinged flap becomes the door where you load the wood into your new in floor wood stove. Our design worked great for the first year but the second year we had such heavy snowfall that when the snow melted it filled the greenhouse with water. We have found that if our half barrel sticks up from the gravel about two inches or so, the spring melt will not leak into the barrel and put out the fire.

The first in-floor woodstove we made: Hubby cut a 4-inch hole in the end of the half barrel, and this was where the original chimney connected. It worked fine for the first few years but the connecting elbow filled with creosote, which clogged the pipe. We had to dig up the pipe from the backfill to clean it. Since then we made a new stove and put the chimney on top through the steel plate. It is much nicer but limits the space on top of the unit. The chimney should extend 2 feet above the surface of the greenhouse roof. It is better for draft and heat and smoke will not damage the plastic roof material. The re-enforced steel plate is used because once your in floor woodstove is finished and ready to fire up, you will want a waterproof container sitting on the steel plate. Once your bucket or barrel is filled with water and is heated, it acts like a pan of water on the kitchen stove. The heat and moisture add comfort back into the room. In addition, what we have found is that the gravel around the woodstove stays warm for a long time even when there is no fire in the stove. This area makes a nice place to put seed starting flats. The bottom heat is perfect for little sprouts to come alive. Even when it is minus 4 degrees outside and I will have little pale green life making their first debut against the rich black soil.

Here we are, the second week in December and we have just finished the last of the salad fixin‘s. We served a robust tossed salad for our Thanksgiving meal of Butterhead lettuce, green and red spinach, Tah Tsai (spinach mustard), Pac Choi and Kale. Once the last of the salad greens are harvested, it is time to clean the greenhouse and put her to bed for the winter. About the second week in February, I start the seed flats with new potting material and lovingly place the seed into their new home. Depending on weather conditions, how cold nighttime temperatures, I may let my seed flats stay inside the cabin for a week longer. Hubby cuts an extra cord of firewood in the fall just for the greenhouse. I do not want to use it all right away, so I may wait to fire up the greenhouse. In addition, I have better control of germinating temperatures when the seedlings are in our cabin at super cold night temperatures. About the end of March, I can use the greenhouse floor for germinating.

Another maneuver I used before the woodstove was installed, that turned out well, is making a greenhouse inside the greenhouse. I made a small wooden frame about 24 inches tall X 48 inches long X 48 inches wide and covered it with plastic. Place this mini greenhouse over the growing seedlings. Cover with a blanket at night to keep the daytime soil heat from escaping. It is surprising how efficient it is. If you do not mind using a little electricity, you can place a small electric heater in there too. I have started spinach and mustard greens and kale in September, placed them under the mini greenhouse in the greenhouse raised bed and had them spring to life when there was enough sunlight to make them happy. They were in a kind of holding pattern during the dark months.

Money is an issue

No money for a fancy greenhouse? Not a problem. For the price of a few feet of 6-mil white/clear plastic, you can have a nice greenhouse and can still use the woodstove idea. We experimented this year with an almost no cost way to extent the growing season.
We had some scrap 2 x 2s which we used to erect a frame. We also had on hand, scrap fencing material, some galvanized cattle fence and some chicken wire fencing. Whatever the material you use, it needs to be bendable. After we were satisfied with the frame construction, we mounted the fence over the framework and stapled to the 2 x 2s. Next came the plastic sheeting, which was also stapled onto the 2 x 2s. Because it can get quite windy in the fall and winter, I used regular clothesline rope to tie it down. We drove 6 stakes into the ground, three on either side of our new greenhouse. Next, I took the rope and went back and forth over the plastic knotting the rope around each stake as we went until all the rope was used, leaving enough to tie the end to a stake.
We have not yet, put a woodstove in this plastic covered greenhouse, but there is certainly no reason why you couldn’t. I would recommend, however, that you use a section of plywood to mount the chimney through the roof. The heat coming off the chimney can wreck havoc with plastic. Our plastic covered greenhouse sits in the garden where we previously made a raised bed. For this winter, I placed over wintering perennials in it. It held up very well through all the nasty windstorms we have had this fall. I was very happy with this setup.

You can see pictures of the in floor woodstove and the wire and plastic covered greenhouse here.

Some key reference books from our library:

• Cold-Climate Gardening: How to Extend Your Growing Season by at Least 30 Days by Lewis Hill
• The Winter Harvest Handbook: Year Round Vegetable Production Using Deep Organic Techniques and Unheated Greenhouses by Eliot Coleman
• Solviva: How to grow $500,000 on one acre, and Peace on Earth by Anna Edey
• Introduction to Permaculture by Bill Morrison with Reny Mia Slay
• All New Square Foot Gardening by Mel Bartholomew
• Greenhouse Gardener's Companion, Revised: Growing Food & Flowers in Your Greenhouse or Sunspace by Shane Smith
  

I recently attended a “survival camp” with my son’s Boy Scout troop and was surprised how many of the boys were unable to get a good fire started.  Today’s emphasis of “don’t play with matches” even seems to have most kids scared of fire.  A fire provides warmth, the ability to cook, and even a setting to bring the day to a close.  Building a sustainable fire quickly and comfortably is a survival skill that everyone should know.  Some preparation is required, however to be able to start and keep a fire burning.  Everyone’s kit should include some type of fire starter.  This could be anything from waterproof matches to a 9 volt battery or a piece of flint and steel.  Some type of kindling should also be in your kit.  Some compact examples include, dryer lint (a small pinch of that stuff most people throw out can easily ignite a lasting fire), sawdust (some people even coat it in a wax and store it this way), cotton balls (these can be soaked in alcohol or vaseline and kept in a plastic baggy), or even small strips of newspaper. 

When the need for a fire arises, one needs to be able to construct a fire that will light quickly and stay lit.  First, an area to build the fire in must be cleared.  An area in the center of your camp is ideal unless you are trying to stay hidden.  Clear a large area of sticks, leaves, grasses, or debris.  Find some large rocks or debris to create a fire circle to delineate the fire area from your camp.  Be sure not to use rocks from streams, lakes, or other bodies of water as these may contain small traces of water that when heated will “explode”.  If you are worried about your fire giving away your location, it is possible to build a covert fire.  This can be done by digging an actual pit for the fire to burn in and surrounding the pit with larger nonflammable items to act as a wall.  It is possible to construct a fire that can still give off heat and be used to cook over without it being seen from a distance.  It is also possible to build your fire in a non-flammable metal container as well (i.e.  50 gallon drum).  Once a fire pit is established it is time to prepare the actual fire itself.  It is important to select dry wood for a fire.  Branches and limbs that have fallen are a good place to start.  An old trick to determine how wet a piece of wood is is to break the wood.  If you get a distinct cracking sound, the wood is dry. If the sound is muffled or dull sounding than the wood may be too wet to burn and should be set out to dry.  It is also possible to find dead branches still attached to trees that will be dry enough to burn.  Also make sure you do not select and poisonous material to burn especially if you will be using your fire to cook! 

When setting up a fire you must consider that a fire requires oxygen, combustible material, and a source of ignition.  Your kit should contain two of these items and your body will provide the oxygen, however there must be a way to get it to the fire as it burns.  Two simple types of fire setups that meet these criteria include the lean-to type and the teepee type.  The lean-to type of fire is constructed by placing a large log to the side of the cleared out fire pit.   Finding the smallest possible sticks, stack these in a perpendicular row with one end on the log and the other on the ground creating a triangular space between the ground, large log, and small sticks.  This area will be where the fire will start and you can add oxygen by blowing into this tunnel or fan this area.  Continue to build on top of the small sticks with slightly larger sticks.  When this is complete, there should still be space between the original row of small sticks and the ground for starting the fire.  A second option is the teepee fire.  This requires a little more skill and three half inch to three quarter inch diameter sticks.  These should be arraigned in a pyramidal structure in the center of the cleared out fire pit with one end in the ground and the other ends all touching.  This can be modified by tying the sticks together or lashing the ends but will increase the time necessary.  Just arranging them so that they lean on each other should be sufficient to hold them up.  Taking small sticks and using the “pyramid”, stack around the structure to create a teepee keeping a small opening to light the fire and add oxygen.  Once small sticks are all around move on to larger sticks and build up a good size teepee.  This structure should collapse on itself as it burns.

Once the basic frame for your fire is setup you are ready to light it.  Take a small piece of the lint and pull it apart to create more surface area.  Use a match, striker, or other means to get a spark on the lint and it should begin to smolder and burn.  With gentle even breaths, begin to grow your fire.  Place this in the opening of the teepee or in the tunnel of the lean to and gently blow on the spark to get it to grow in size and intensity.  A steady slow exhalation works much better than many short breaths.  This small fire is all that is necessary to get the smallest sticks burning, though some people find it helpful to start with small dry leaves or dry grass and increase the size of the flame before getting to the sticks, although this will increase the amount of smoke given off by the fire.  These small sticks will burn quickly and move to the larger sticks.  Be sure to increase the size of the sticks as the fire builds and move to logs when the fire is of sufficient size.  It will be necessary to keep a supply of wood nearby or send groups out to gather wood throughout the night.  The larger logs may burn slower and with less light, but the coals will stay warm for hours. 

Cooking over an outdoor fire also requires a little forethought.  Before lighting the fire it may be necessary to setup some way to keep food over the fire, but still be able to retrieve it without burning oneself.  This can be done, obviously, with a long stick whittled down at one end.  You may also consider placing two large sticks on either side of the fire and connecting them with a string far enough above the fire that it will not burn.  It will then be possible to suspend your food with fish hooks and line directly over the fire to cook.  It is also possible to cook over the coals or flames using pots and pans.  One trick, though, is to coat the outside of them with a liquid soap first.  This will prevent them from scorching and will allow them to wash off very quickly with a minimal amount of water.

When your fire is out and it is time to leave it behind, there are still a few necessary safety items to consider.  Even if it looks like a fire is out and nothing is there except ashes, it is still important to douse your fire circle, pit, etc. with a large amount of water before you leave.  One should be able to safely put their bare hand through the ashes to ensure it is completely out.  No one wants to be responsible for accidentally starting a large forest or brush fire.  If you worry about leaving behind a sign of your fire, once it is completely out, the ashes can be scattered, buried, or covered over without fear of them re-igniting. 

It is possible to expose your children to safe use of fires without them even realizing they are being taught.  Having a bonfire a few times, roasting marshmallows with them, cooking smores are just a couple of ways to introduce them to fire building skills and safety.  Let them gather the wood for themselves, pick their own rocks for the circle, or pour the water on at the end of your fire time – kids inherently want to help with whatever they see their parents doing and this is an ideal way to let them learn.  It is also an ideal way to let them see a fire does not have to be a scary thing but can be used as any other tool for good or bad.  A fire is an ideal way to prepare meals, keep kids busy (gathering wood, telling stories, etc), and provide a centerpiece to camp.  One of man’s earliest gathering places was around a fire and may be again some day.

JWR:
Reader R.B. recently mentioned obtaining 55 gallon drums to store diesel as it "lasts for years."
 
Gasoline will also "last for years" IF it is stored properly. I recently tapped into a 55 gallon drum that had been stored for 5 years - and was surprised to get 2-1/2 better m.p.g. while experiencing considerably more horsepower going up several mountain passes.  Some of this may be due to 5 year old fuel having a lower percentage of Ethanol than recent production.
 
USE A QUALITY PRESERVATIVE - I like Pri-G gasoline treatment, but STA-BIL seems to work as well, and use 25% more than suggested.

ELIMINATE AIR - Oxygen chemically reacts with gasoline. Use only a metal storage container, since air molecules gradually go right through plastic. Be sure to fill it the container to within an inch of the top. Put the cap on tight and wait for your rainy day.  - Chemist in the Rockies