Howzit J.R.,
I'm a newbie groupie to your site, now on a daily basis. I'm going through the archives, year by year, and am compiling useful info for my situation. I've realized that at some point, due to the number of visitors to your site, [voluntary] membership dues may be necessary, just to support the technical requirements of having it. No problemo. I've never seen anything like the SurvivalBlog site, so my dues are in-bound.

I've seen previous posts about the tsunami warning in Hawai‘i, but not from a local resident perspective. I'll give you mine.

I live on Kaua‘i, in a flood and tsunami inundation zone. I work in the County Planning Department, and am very familiar with the geographical issues of where I live. I also am a Hurricane Iniki survivor, so I know of what I speak. The service you provide, if taken seriously, can be a matter of life and death, comfort and survival...or not.

My son woke me up at 5.30 a.m. and told me about the warning sirens which were to go off at 6.00 a.m., and that if a tsunami did occur, it would be at 11.00. I immediately thought "Wow, I got plenty of time to pack the truck" I woke up the wife, gave her the scoops, and told her to start packing. For me, I already had bugout bags and containers already prepped based on when I first started into your SurvivalBlog columns several months ago. I told my 21 year-old son and wife back then that it would be a good idea to pack a bugout bag just in case. Of course, they laughed, and ignored me. No problem, I did my prep. My wife packs a carry-on suitcase with clothes and says she's going into L‘hu‘e to her work place, which is centrally located on the island. Then I notice the size of her bugout bag, and ask "That's all you're taking?" She replies, if we lose the house, I'll just buy what I need. I really did have to control my face muscles - I told her okay, I'll catch up with you once I secure the house. Yeah, I know, I know.

I didn't need to join the gas parade as my truck was full, but my son did. That took him 45 minutes in line. He also filled up an extra 5 gallon container. I didn't need to join the parade at the food markets either, as I was already prepared. Ah, the luxuries of being prepared.

Once my wife is gone, the first thing I load onto my truck are my most prized possessions. My four best longboard surfboards, period. What can I say? I'm a surfer! OBTW, I did the same thing before Hurricane Iniki squatted on Kaua‘i in 1992 - I took my entire quiver of 8 surfboards and stashed them under my neighbor's house which was a post and pier construction with a height of three feet off the ground, tying them together two at a time with strips of rubber cut from tire inner tubes, then rubberizing the gate. Of course I knew that if the house blew, my boards would also go, but I had no other place to secure them.

My long guns went into a hardcover traveling case for golf clubs. Those cases are really good, and they're weather proof. I was intending to have one pistol under the drivers seat, an M1 Garand and Mini-30 with scope behind the driver's seat, and 12 gauge shotgun besides me, covered by a jacket and towel. No one else would be traveling with me besides my dog. On the floor in the cab were three ammo cans of nickels (2), and metal valuables (1) (gold, junk silver, Rolex watch, and baht chains). On the passenger's seat was a waterproof container of important papers.

In the bed of my truck: MREs; a container of all the canned foods in the kitchen; cooler of containers of water; bag of rice; 2 pots for cooking; the golf traveling case; containers of ammo (7.62x39, .30-06, .308, and various pistol calibers); a bugout container of tarps, ropes, bungie cords, candles, matches, propane containers and stoves, etc; a bugout bag of clothes, jackets, boots, socks, blanket, slippers, gloves, etc. (Yes, I had an extra set for the son and wife.); my spearfishing/diving bag, including 2 riffe spearguns; a container of dog food with water and food bowls.

In my son's truck were two bugout containers of tools, more tarps, tents, ropes, MREs, etc. He carried his .30-30 and 20 gauge with ammo. He also packed his Kawasaki dirt bike for alternative transportation, with extra gas and oil.

It took 45 minutes to 1 hour to complete the loading. We backed up the vehicles and positioned them towards the street, ready to go....we checked our neighbors to see what their choices and status was, and it was now 8.00 a.m. Those who were gone, were gone. There were three families that were going to remain - two of us were watching the television reports - we knew if anything hit Hilo on the Big Island, it would take [another] 30 minutes to hit Kaua‘i - so we had the cushion. I changed my plans - rather than an immediate evac (which the low lying coastal communities were doing in full force), I was going to stay to the very last minute because I knew there would be a potential for looting of evacuated communities (which the news began reporting several hours later), and because we had access to real time intel (the televisions and radios), and I did not want to join that evac parade if I didn't have to. My son was hesitant at first, but then realized the logic. Of course my mom and dad, daughter, and wife, who were all in safe zones, were texting and calling asking where we were. I just stopped answering the cell phone.

About 10.00, I decided to cook a steak and eggs breakfast for my son and I, on the premise we may as well eat a good one because if it gets hectic at around 11.00, we may as well not be hungry too. That was a great meal!

From the projected impact time, to 12.00, we had the television and radio on. And thank the Lord, nothing happened, this time around. The volume of traffic coming from the mountain back to the coastline was bumper to bumper for 1-2 hours. I'm so glad I wasn't in that parade.

Lessons learned: 1) The ammo cans of nickels are not a survival necessity. 2) There are different evac scenarios that may require different items 3) I've got to get my load and evac time down considerably. Under 30 minutes means an earthquake closer to home. This means I've got to better centralize those bugout containers in one or two areas of the house and garage. At least my son is aware of these containers.

I've just scored two army cots - these will be essential items for the next time. My immediate needs are basically water purification and replacement filters.

Sensei, you rock! - Longboards Rule

From the beginning of time, ownership and control of quality farm land and raw materials have been closely associated with wealth creation and prosperity. What can you grow or raise? What resources and commodities do you own and control? How much metal, stone, glass, and wood do you own? Do you have the means, knowledge, tools and skills to produce valuable items from this land and these raw materials?

As America was settled, the pioneers knew very well the fundamentals of non-electric, independence away from the city and just how critical natural resources were to survival. If a parcel did not have fresh water and tillable flat bottom farm land, it was left alone and many years later those same lands are now national parks, national forests, and BLM lands owned by the government.

The primary questions in the minds of those early settlers should also be the same questions in the minds of today’s long-term prepper families. Those questions are simply, “Will this parcel of land support our life?”, and “Do I have ownership and control over the means of production of my food and fuel on this land”?

All along the Blue Ridge mountains, the real estate agents have a phrase they use concerning land value, that phrase is, “the steeper, the cheaper”. It is well known that when you see land advertised as “good hunting land”, that the property really will not support its residents. It is too rocky and hilly, and will not support decent crop production for man and livestock. It is only the last few generations of fearful city type suburbanites and armchair survivalists that have elevated the notion that mountain land remoteness equals security and that is the number one quality to look for in a “retreat”. But mountain living leaves much to be desired in security in many important areas and ways. Never be deluded into thinking that you are safe high up in the woods and that no one will know you are there. It bears reminding everyone of the biblical verse and truth:

Matt 5:14 “A city that is set on an hill cannot be hid”.

Caves and mountains are where you go to if you are on the run, and need temporary shelter from pursuit, just read the Bible and look at history. People only lived that way out of destitute desperation, because everything [needed to support life] must be hauled in on a continual basis in order to survive. Those locations are not an assured long term sustainable solution in many cases. The primary reason is that very little livestock feed can be produced. Be careful that your homestead location does not separate you from the critical means of production, and forever tether you to others for the things you should be producing yourself. If possible then always opt for sustainable systems capabilities in your land purchase decisions as the most important criteria. I encourage forward thinking preppers to expand their retreat and homestead plans to the realities of true societal and monetary system independence. Be willing to transition to an agrarian lifestyle now, and take control over all the means of production of two things in your life: food and fuel. Get to the place where you own the finished goods and things you cannot grow or raise each year such as salt, tools, and ammo. Owning a lifetime supply of salt is something that is not too difficult. You are trying to reach the point where a yearly cycle in food and fuel production is all you have to worry about. This gives you the freedom to stay out of the cities and towns for basic supplies others will be clamoring for; for a great many years. This starts not with the question of how remote is my land from society’s "zombies", but “will my land support life, and do I own all the means of production”? The litmus test is really drawn not at the backyard 4x4 square foot garden level, but rather: can I grow feed for my livestock and my family’s fuel production on this parcel? This is really what the means of production are all about.

It is ownership and control over the means of production of food and fuel that will ensure you and your family of long term survival in a TEOTWAWKI scenario.

Be willing to ask the questions of a pioneer settler with his family in a covered wagon in 1850. “Will this land support life”?, “Can I grow feed for my poultry flocks, dairy and meat animals, aquaculture ponds, and humans”? “Is there a surface fresh water source on this land”? “What about timber and material resources”? Do I have the tools, knowledge, skills, and finished goods for these systems and processes? These are the basics of life and questions that a century ago would have been common knowledge to all, but today’s modern city sheeple prepper wanna-bes too often overlook and discard. Just like we are spoiled with instant everything, we think of every shortcut possible to “instant survival”. At some point you must get to the place where your “retreat” becomes your “mini-farm”. Otherwise, you are simply camping with a can of food.

“Can I produce all my own fuel from this land?” is the second part of the means of production mindset. There are six primary farmstead fuels that wise people should all be in the process of utilizing for their energy independence. They are: wood, charcoal, methane, ethanol, producer gas, and beeswax. Study these fuels, learn all you can and purchase now all the means of production for them on your land. Do not look to the left or to the right. Turn the television off and spend your free time developing these systems and learning the skill sets needed for their production, storage, and use.

Many today will never voluntarily choose an agrarian lifestyle or pursue the ownership and control over the means of production. Instead they will rely solely on commercial packaged food and fuel produced by others who are wise enough to own the means of production. They must haul each load to their retreat, with no hope of new supplies while they keep their city office jobs and suburban comforts till they believe they will “bug out” and be "safe". Lord, help them all is all I can say.

While having the courage to pursue the ownership and control over the means of production instead of mere temporary “preps” is essential, the real challenge for First World urbanites is the shift in practicing and mastering the skills surrounding those means. It takes work and that is a four letter word when everyone wants to be a musician, artist, writer, or celebrity. Choose the agrarian/skills-based lifestyle now even with all the learning curves and mistakes you will make, before you are a fleeing refugee of this empire collapse, and can only wish you would have chosen this path and secured these means sooner. All of the suffering and sacrifice you endure now in becoming skilled and truly prepared, is nothing compared to all of the suffering and sacrifice you would endure later if you are not already skilled and prepared.

I'll close with two more Bible verses:

“Wise men lay up knowledge.” (Prov. 10:14)

“Fools despise wisdom and instruction” (Prov. 1:7)

One of the skills that has served me best in life is my tendency to make everything modular.  I think I learned it in the Army, but regardless of where I picked it up, it has saved my rear end at home, at work, in emergencies, and even in my hobbies. 

Let’s pick on Average Joe for a second.  Average Joe is exactly that.  He likes a beer now and again, listens to classic rock and some country, and works in a job that just barely pays the bills.  He has a commute of about 50 miles round-trip every day and drives a little sedan.  Today, for lunch, he decided to ride with a work buddy to a Chinese place downtown about five miles from the office.  While they were eating a riot broke out and Joe got separated from his buddy and despite all efforts, he can’t find him.  When he gets back to his buddy’s car, it’s gone.  Worse, it appears that the rioters have managed to knock out power for most of the area.  Police sirens are blaring, and Joe has a feeling they won’t be too discriminating in who they label as “rioter.”  He finds a place of relative safety and takes inventory.  He’s got $25 cash, a credit card, a jacket, and a pocket comb.  He may need to run, he may need to hide, he may even need to lay low for a day or two until things calm down.  In a word, Joe is screwed.

Let’s say Joe carries a basic everyday carry (EDC) pocketknife.  He now has some basic gear and maybe a way to defend himself.  He’s better off, but will it be enough to get him to safety?  Where is safety?

Let’s revisit Joe after we talk about modular systems and how they can affect your preps.  Effective modular design gives you improved flexibility and even more importantly, redundancy in your preparations.  If every component in a modular design has some way of making fire and a cutting tool, it’s not long before you’ve got 4-5 backups each for both of those key elements in your system.

My basic everyday preps are modular in nature.  Level 1 is the stuff that is always in my pocket, organized into an easy to carry/can’t leave anything at home by accident fashion.  Its purpose is to get me through the day-to-day routine and to give me the means to get back to my car in an emergency.  With just Level 1, for 12-24 hours, I have the means to obtain or improvise food, shelter, and water, I can signal, I have a means of security, and I can administer some self-aid.  Level 2 is kept is in my car and will give me enough supplies to sustain myself in relative comfort for 48 hours or more in most emergencies.  Combine the two and I’m up to 72 hours.  The purpose of the level 2 kit is to get me home to pick up the family so we can decide whether to bug-out or bug-in.   Level 3 is modular, in and of itself.  There are some components that can simply be thrown in the back of a truck, and there are other components that are meant for staying put.  Depending on whether we’re evacuating or staying home, we’re good for anywhere from two weeks to several months – plus a day or two more with my Level 1 and Level 2 kits added in.  Having the Level 1 and 2 kits along for the ride also offers me the ability to split up from the main family temporarily if necessary.

Now let’s give Joe a similar setup to the one I use.  Joe has enough gear to get himself the five miles back to his car.  Or he can hide out for a day and hope things calm down.  He’s got the gear for that too.  His Level 1 has given him options.  If he gets to his Level 2, located in his car, he has even more options and enough supplies to camp out in the office for a few days, or maybe – at a stretch – a week.  He could also try to get home.

That’s one example, but in the end modular design and its benefits is only limited by your imagination and your circumstances.  There are, however, certain things that need to be true in all modular systems.  Once you understand these elements, you can use modular design in pretty much every aspect of your life.

1. Each module should be able to stand on its own.  The stuff that lines your pockets is never going to sustain you for weeks at a time.  But each level of your system should address, in some way, the basic needs of survival for some period of time in the environment you are most likely to encounter.  I’m referring to shelter, water, food, signaling, security, and self-aid.  My Level 1 does that for 12-24 hours in a semi-rural environment.  My level 2 does the same thing, but for a longer period of time and greatly increases my weather range.  Level 3 takes me still further.  All are functional by themselves without the help of the others.  In preparedness terms, this is mainly true because you have to assume that you will use up each module during the process of getting to the next level.
2. The whole should be greater than the sum of its parts.  Consider the Army’s Modular Sleep System for a second.  It’s made up of four components.  1) A bivy sack made of GoreTex; 2) a thin sleeping bag we called a patrol sack; 3) a thicker sleeping bag we called the black sack (normally called an intermediate sleeping bag); and 4) a stuff sack.  Each component individually gives you protection in different temperature ranges, and all of the components combine to take you down to temperatures in the -20 degrees Fahrenheit range.  But the real added benefit comes in the redundancy.  Because there are layers, if any one component is damaged or torn, I’m still warm because of the other components.  The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  You can do the same thing with your stored food.  I can store the complete seven day nutritional and medicinal needs for one person in a 5-gallon bucket, but there are six people in my family.  If I give each person their own self-sustaining, complete one-week bucket, but I make sure to vary the stored ingredients a bit, I can greatly increase my food preparation options and everyone can benefit from the combined food wealth.  Moreover, if something goes bad in one person’s bucket, there are backups in other buckets.
3. You must plan it out.  You can’t throw together an effective system on the spur of the moment.  It needs to be planned out.  You need to define the purpose and duration intended for each module of your system.  Then, for every item you put into a module, you need to identify all of the intended and potential uses for the item when used alone and with other items from its module.  Finally, you need to list all of the intended and potential uses when combined with kit from other modules.  Let’s say hypothetically that you’re in a minor emergency.  You open up your level 1 kit and find $25 and some gear.  You now have options that will, hopefully, see you through to your Level 2 kit.  When you get to your Level 2 kit you find $100 and some more gear.  Combined with the remaining Level 1 money and gear, your options have greatly expanded. 
4. You must test your system.  When I say test, I mean both theoretical and actual.  You need to occasionally use the items in your kits.  Take your bug out bag and nothing else camping, for example.  You also need to constantly ask questions like, “okay, let’s say the power goes out right now, how will I get by?”  Test the individual modules as well.  Using nothing but your Level 1 gear, can you really get through a day?  Remember: Even the best-designed system in the world is essentially useless without the skills to put it into use.
5. You must put the system together.  This sounds so obvious that I almost hesitated to include it, but the tendency is for us to think things through and then just let them go.  You have to actually put together your kit, or you won’t have it when you need it.

As I mentioned in the beginning, in addition to using them in my preps, I use modular systems at work, at home, and at play.  I’m betting that if Joe had seen the benefits beforehand, he would use modular design too.

Dear Jim,

Greetings and thank you, to you and all your wonderful contributors of the past.

As most of us live in the ‘City’ or suburb of the ‘City’, there is a feeling of when TEOTWAWKI occurs, we will grab our G.O.O.D. bag get in our vehicle and head out to our personal retreat, hidden from the Golden Horde.

One quick question - when will the TEOTWAWKI occur? What date? What time? And how will we know it has occurred? As I have read most of the writings from the beginning until now, I seem to have missed that date, and time, so how will a survivalist know it is time to get out, just prior to the rest of the masses? Is there going to be a special announcement on the radio saying “Survivalist, please get your G.O.O.D. bag, and immediately leave, as we will have a surprise attack, by a hate-filled terrorist group in twenty minutes.” Or will we be informed, “A major 7.9 earthquake will strike our good community in 35 minutes. If you are a Sheeple, please ignore this message, and continue on your daily routine, until after this disaster.”

I don’t think either situation will actually occur, prior to the event. Even with a tornado, hurricane, flood, or forest fire, I don’t think anyone will know the exact course of mother nature, until afterwards. At that point, I think survivalist and Sheeple will be on equal footing to get out of town.

Think about Hurricane Katrina, and those who left when initially informed, and those who left when formally informed, versus those who stayed, until after the hurricane passed by, and then were informed that the levee had broken. New Orleans has been hit by many hurricanes, and will continue to be hit by hurricanes. When will the next hurricane strike that will in itself be an actual category 4 or 5, or cause a massive destruction of the pumps that keep the city safe from flooding.

The simple point I am trying to make, is that we do not know when we will need to evacuate, or leave for our planned retreat.

With that in mind, have we taken the time to practice our departure from the city? I am not talking about our driving the roads on a Tuesday afternoon, with little to no traffic.

As we are coming up to Memorial Day weekend. (BTW, Thank you to those who have given their all for my freedom). With that weekend's higher freeway traffic flow we have the unique opportunity to practice.

As with all of our other practice and preparations (firearms/canning/gardening/hand to hand combat/first aid/radio communication), we need to practice our GOOD process.

First, if you have not planned on going anywhere, this is the time to at least plan on being one of the masses on the road.

Second, unless otherwise required, do not fuel your vehicle prior to leaving.

Third, plan on leaving, or starting to load your vehicle on Friday, after 4 in the afternoon. T

Fourth, after loading your vehicle, go to the gas station to fuel your vehicle.

Fifth, take the road you intend on using to get out of town.

You might be surprised as to how many others are using that road, to get out of town.

I used to live around the Los Angeles basin, and dreaded the three day weekends. My personal story is, I would go home (more than 300 miles away from Los Angeles) on the weekends. I left work at 1:00 , and it would take me about three to four hours, to get to a point on the highway, where I could drive the speed limit. This is at a point where maybe 5 percent of the population was leaving for the weekend. Multiply that by 10 (50 percent of the population trying to get out), and a true understanding of what would occur, if the populous of Los Angeles decided to leave en mass, because of some unknown catastrophe.

Think back to the pictures of New Orleans leaving before Hurricane Katrina struck. How officials opened up both sides of the highway and made it one way, out of New Orleans , in an attempt to relieve and facilitate the evacuation of the city.

Do you remember seeing pictures of the European countries, during WWII, when people started leaving, prior to an anticipated invasion of their community by the invading armies? Walking, the lucky ones with tractors, pulling trailers, and the roads clogged with refuges.

The bottom line is, practice your escape route, this Memorial Day weekend (other times include this 4th of July, Labor Day, or Thanksgiving Weekend). Just don’t do it when traffic will be light, do it when you anticipate traffic to be the heaviest.

Practice what you have learned, and learn from your practice.

Jim,
I had the recent somewhat surreal experience of going through the Hawaiian costal evacuation during the most recent tsunami alert. It was a near-miss natural disaster scenario that unfolded in slow motion because of the distance from the Chilean earthquake and the presence of tsunami alert sensors and monitoring officials. There are a few observations that I'd like to share.

I managed to stay ahead of the Golden Horde phenomena by a few hours and it was interesting to just acknowledge some of the predictable elements: most people were not alerted to the risk of the tsunami until 0600 when the civil defense sirens went off. The gas stations and grocery stores were subsequently mobbed and quickly were depleted of supplies. For the most part people were civil with each other but there were some conflicts despite the local radio hosts admonitions to "remember people, love, love, love -- aloha". I think the conflicts were minimal because this was a "potential" disaster only. The costal highways of course were packed. Look at a map of Maui and you can see how egress from many of the more densely populated areas is limited to a single road (right on the coast).

The other folks who were up with me at 0200 beating the crowds tended to be folks with increased "situational awareness". For example, I talked with a guy that had worked for the powerplant and knew that it was in the inundation zone and was threatened. This also included the main airport and of course the harbors. He currently works for the public utility and also knew that water and sewage pumping stations would be: a) turned off in expectation of the tsunami surge and b) out of commission if the island took a big hit. In a place where everything has to be shipped from somewhere else, it didn't take much imagination to realize that 120,000 inhabitants and 60,000 tourists could be quickly SOL for services and supplies.

All of this was of course to be expected. Somewhat more subtle revelations include:

-Even if you are going to Hawaii for your 25th wedding anniversary a preparedness awareness and travel kit are in order

-Consider the potential threats in your travel destination. For example a hotel room could be selected not just for the view but with the knowledge that in a tsunami you can vertically evacuate to above the 3rd floor, trying to balance with concerns for fire, or earthquake (these are volcanic islands of course and while there we also got to experience the Vog - volcanic smog, coming from the big island).

-When we arrived we didn't "need" anything more than a compact car - but it turned out to be prudent to have rented a vehicle with extra cargo carrying capacity when suddenly I was packing cases of water and food and supplies for potential camp out for multiple days

-It reminded me that the being in a state that disallows for conceal carry and personal/ family defense is not just a quaint ideological or cultural shift, but has potential real implications

-I was lucky in that I was up late enough to get the earliest tsunami warning reports. If it weren't for the Olympic coverage on television (which I normally would not be watching), I too would had my first awareness of the situation at 0600 with the rest of the clueless. It taught me that in your travel environment, (or home for that matter) some kind of monitoring of news and or civil defense sources is a good idea.

| -One shouldn't rely on the hotel or your other hosts for timely prep or information -- they still had their maintenance folks sweeping sidewalks just off the beach as part of their tsunami prep.

-We had selected a hotel room outfitted with a kitchen and this really helped when it came to taking essentials for cooking and cleaning, (as well as self defense if you count a 10" chef's knife)

-Civil Defense plans and their orchestration with local agencies was pretty good - but: a) a lot of sirens that were supposed to did not go off, and there were "gathering points" for evacuees that had no supplies (food, water, etc) because this was not part of the plan. Obviously the civil defense planning has not yet included secure power and water supply systems either. Your travel situational awareness might also include taking in the strength and weakness of governmental agencies and infrastructure. This now goes on my travel checklist.

I feel very lucky to have been able to watch and learn from all of this without having had to experience a full blown catastrophe. The process is going to light a fire under my tail to get going with my preparedness plans and to give all of them some needed hard reflection.

Thanks for all the education I have already received from SurvivalBlog. - B.P.S.

I’ve been fortunate to live in the same general area for my entire adult life, the Rocky Mountains of Utah. I am very familiar with the area made more so by various employments, a variety of interests all centered around the outdoors and twenty years of being a Scout Master. Being familiar with my surroundings for a long period of time increases my knowledge base of useful things to know, information unique to my immediate surroundings.
    
I have always been curious and a great observer, of both people and things.  Some years ago my brother mentioned something to me when we were talking about being prepared if anything big should happen. At the time he worked for a national car wash company, traveling around the region inspecting various car washes.  He said he didn’t need to store a fresh water supply because all of the car washes have enormous tanks of fresh water underground; most have more than 2,000 gallons. People didn’t know this so he figured he could use these as a source for fresh water. 
    
A light bulb went off in my head. This conversation was the start of what I call my Long Term Situational Awareness. I am always on the look out for information that could help me if I have to G.O.O.D. or heaven forbid if TEOTWAWKI happens; information, places and people that I store away in my data banks so I don’t have to figure it out on the run. For example the water tanks underneath car washes, I might have figured that out eventually, but now I know right where to head.
    
Here are some of the things I have made mental notes about that I think will give me an edge.  Maybe you can keep an eye out for this stuff in your immediate vicinity.  The longer you are in the same area, the more information you can collect.  The more stuff you know, the better your odds are of getting out and surviving.
    
ESCAPE ROUTES: Where I live we our bound on the West by a harsh desert environment, not a good escape route.  To the East are mountains, which I know intimately from hunting and camping, especially every paved and dirt road in an out of them for fifty miles. It would take several road blocks to prevent me from getting where I wanted to go if I choose to go that direction.  This direction is my choice if evasion or defense is the highest priority.  

There is only one North South freeway, which of course would prove completely useless. A bottle neck of both surface streets and alternate routes to the South make this direction a bad choice.  To the North, a bottle neck of alternate routes is still passable but not ideal. A little known closed rail road line, (Google Earth is a great source to start looking for these kinds of routes.) is only blocked by a flimsy gate. It bypasses the bottleneck by twenty miles.  A friend showed me this years ago as an access to some hunting ground.  I realized its other potential as an escape route and have never forgotten it. If I have to bug out, I’m going north.  
FOOD: We all know the grocery stores, convenience stores and restaurants will be looted first.  I’ve noted several places that might be over looked at least during the first few days. I keyed in an idea several years ago that anyplace that serves meals to large groups of people will have stores of food.  

There are two small convention centers within five miles of my house.  They are not in a retail, shopping or restaurant area, they are in the office and business districts.  I go to both several times a year.  Every night of the week they cook and serve dinner for several hundred people. The convention centers have storage rooms and commercial kitchens that will probably be overlooked in the first few days [of a societal collapse].
    
Any place with a snack bar, especially in an overlooked area, is a great source for food supplies.  I know of three indoor soccer arenas with snack bars.  All are in warehouse and industrial areas. All of them have snack bars and I’ve noted where the storage rooms are for the snack bars.  Two of the soccer arenas are on my bug out route.

The last several years I have seen an explosion of small gyms, many in strip malls and professional office districts.  Nearly all of these small gyms have supplies of nutrition and protein bars, bottled water and re-hydration drinks. Most will be overlooked the first few days.
    
Most Boy Scout camps store and cook food for hundreds of people everyday. I know of at least a dozen scout camps along different travel routes.

We have three, regional food distribution centers. These will be hit hard, but I know where they are and won’t have to look for them in the telephone book. What might be overlooked are the restaurant food supply companies. Not only might their warehouses be missed at first, some people might walk right pass a SYSCO semi truck and not realize it is filled with food. One semi truck from a restaurant supplier and I’m set.  I know the names of all the suppliers and their logos.  
    
Fuel:  Two miles from my home is a warehouse complex with over two hundred companies and a thousand semi-trucks, all with big fuel tanks, going in and out every day. It will obviously be looted, but it is so large the out lying trucks and smaller ware houses will go unnoticed at first.
    
Excavator companies and large construction companies often store their own fuel. I’ve hired several of these companies and have identified three that are located in areas that may be easily overlooked.

There is farmland all around me.  Many farmers store fuel.  This would be a last resort for me because they also have guns, know how to shoot, are willing to shoot and if any group will survive WTSHTF it will be farmers.

TEOTWAWKI         
A few random notes I’ve taken over the years in case I find myself in TEOTWAWKI situation. I know where three large sheep herds and two large herds of cattle graze in the summer. I know where a high-fence elk hunting outfit is located with 300 head of elk. I know of three small residential subdivisions in the mountains that are self sustaining, on there own wells and solar powered. I know of three large snowmobiling lodges in the mountains that are self sustaining.  They are virtually abandoned six months out of the year.  I know where a small, private fish farm, surrounded by a hundred fruit trees can be found two miles past a locked gate. I know where all of the wildlife resources fish hatcheries are. I know where a rancher has sixty head of domesticated buffalo penned in a remote mountain valley.
    
All of these observations have taken no extra time and effort, simply the realization that someday I may need to know this stuff and it would be a good idea to remember them.  Keep your eyes and ears open, you never know what will pop out at you if you’re looking for it.   You never know what piece of information you store in your data banks will give you the critical edge.

JWR Adds: Most of the foregoing would only be appropriate in the aftermath of a situation with massive depopulation, such as a pandemic. In anything lesser, appropriating "abandoned" supplies would simply be unconscionable theft, because those supplies would still have rightful owners. There have also been several discussions in SurvivalBlog about the inadvisability of crossing private land that belong to someone else. Even worse is shooting someone's livestock. In essence, that is just a good way to get yourself ventilated, in the event of a societal collapse. I have posted this just to show SurvivalBlog readers one sort of threat that they will face. It is encapsulates the horribly astray and ill-advised "justified looting" mentality. Keep plenty of .308 ammo on hand. You may need it.

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I fully enjoy your site and have been reading it daily for some time now.Only yesterday did I follow the link to the You Tube video, After Armageddon.

And only yesterday did the question dawn on me: Following any disaster, what percentage of survivors would be forced to leave their homes?

In twenty years of practicing preparedness, I've never given the question any thought!

Sure, I am well prepared and sited in a very rural area flush with abundant water, fish and game, mature hardwoods and other natural resources. I've a modest farm with large gardens, we can and preserve every year, and are capable of generating electricity without liquid fuels. I've ammo and firearms maintenance tools enough for several lifetimes.

Thus, I would never, under any circumstance, consider leaving my home.

Perhaps in some slightly perverse way, I have been looking forward to TEOTWAWKI. My family and I are enjoying a 19th century bucolic homestead, out of doors most days, maintaining a robust vigilance, eating well, staying warm, raising and educating children and so on.

In short, my family would make only the few adjustments brought on by the failure of high current commercial power, abandonment of motor transport in favor of our mules, and no mechanical refrigeration.

So I am now truly vexed with the question: Just how many folks are like me? What are the numbers of people who will not have any need to leave their homes? Do you have an idea of the numbers? I'd love to know your thoughts. Sincerely, - Tom H.

JWR Replies: Know the numbers is nigh-on impossible, since exact situations cannot be predicted. It is possible, however, to draw some conclusions based on some fairly safe general assumptions. At the core, it all depends on the big linchpin: grid-up, or grid-down. Without grid power for an extended period of time, most cities and even many suburbs will become uninhabitable. I suspect that in a grid-up situation, most people will stay put. But in a grid-down situation, there may be huge numbers of refugees.

One of the SurvivalBlog concepts that has fascinated (and haunted) me since learning of it has been the concept of the Golden Horde: the exodus of the unprepared-but-entitled softies, fleeing the cities in search of food, water and shelter after a SHTF scenario.

I say "haunted" because - out of necessity - my retreat lies in the middle of a triangle formed by three medium-size cities, so I've long suspected that I would be in prime Golden Horde country.

In order to understand what such an exodus might actually look like, I decided to make some assumptions about travel behavior and then superimpose those assumptions onto a map. I wanted to model something that I could actually prepare and plan for, rather than just worry about an invisible foe.

My nephew runs an instant oil change shop, and several months ago - when I first started reading SurvivalBlog - I asked him to begin noting the average amount of gasoline customers had in their tank when they brought them in.

This isn't in any way scientific; I just wanted some sort of information to base my assumptions on. After about two months of watching, my nephew reported that the average is somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 tank of gas.

I had assumed, if graphed out, it would probably be a bell-curve with a few people having a full tank and a few people running on fumes, and everyone else hovering somewhere around the middle. So I was a bit surprised that the average seemed to be quite a bit below half. I told this to a gas station owner friend of mine, and he said he wasn't surprised. He said nowadays people tend to just buy gas as needed (usually in even dollar amounts), and rarely "fill it up".

For my assumptions, I will say that most people have a gas tank that's 40% full.

As for average gas tank size on the road today, I basically had to trust the web for this one, and most of what I read put the average at between 14 and 16 gallons. I decided to split the difference and say 15 gallons.

A 15 gallon tank that is 40% full contains 6 gallons.

According to web sites that track such things, the average highway MPG of the 20 most common new vehicles on the road is 22 MPG. This does not account for all the used vehicles on the road. Also, I couldn't find average city MPG figures, but judging by the typical relationship between highway and city MPG, I'm assuming that the stop-and-start driving of a mass evacuation would be even worse than typical city driving, and would certainly offer no more than 18 MPG. I think 18 MPG would be generous.

Furthermore, after a genuine SHTF scenario, gas stations will be sold out within minutes, so for most people, additional gasoline above and beyond what they already have in their cars will simply not be an option. Which means that - to my surprise - after TSHTF, the majority of drivers fleeing the city will travel not much more than 108 miles before having to proceed on foot.

Based on disasters like Katrina and others, I assume at least 20% of the city will stay behind to try to make a go of it, and 80% will flee. Who knows if that will be accurate. Perhaps as many as half will stay behind, but for me, I used 80% as a kind of worst-case assumption.

Now, I had to formulate some route assumptions. These will vary from city to city, and you'll have to arrive at your own assumptions about this, but in my particular area, here is what I've come up with: 70% of people will (try to) use interstates, 25% will use state highways and 5% will use rural and secondary roads.

I've further assumed that the city will disperse in all directions. In other words, there is no compass point that will be particularly favored. This may not be true everywhere, but in my area, there's no real or perceived advantage to heading East vs. West for example.

I've been informally observing interstate traffic patterns in my area (something I'd advise you to do as well) and about 1 in 17 cars (say 6%) make a turn from the road they're on to any given side road or exit.

In other words, if you start at some random point with 1,000 cars, at the next off-ramp, about 60 will exit, leaving 940 on the road. At the next exit, 56 cars will get off or turn and 884 cars will continue on the interstate.

In normal day-to-day life, cars also get on the interstate at these places too, but I suspect that in a genuine SHTF scenario, people who are already out of the city will be less somewhat less likely to join the extremely slow, Golden Horde on the interstates.

Again, trying to get accurate figures for these things is obviously extremely difficult, and who knows if these figures will hold after SHTF, but by erring on the high side of things, you can at least have something to plan for.

So armed with these assumptions, let's now apply them to a roadmap.

Go to Google Maps and pick the major city that's nearest your location, and multiple the population by .8 (or whatever your assumption is on how many people will be bugging out).

Now, distribute those people along all the outbound interstates, state highways and secondary roads according to your assumptions. (In my case, 70% interstate, 25% state highways, 5% secondary.)

Then follow each route that heads in your general direction, losing 6% at each exit, or intersection and continuing with this until you get about 110-120 miles. These are the locations where people are going to congregate and decide what to do next.

From here, these groups will disperse in a more scattered way (since they're on foot), with perhaps 20% choosing to take exits and side roads, a few even going cross-country in search of something to eat.

Be sure to repeat this for other nearby cities, and when you're finished, you should have a (very) rough idea of the number of hungry people who may be descending upon your area. The accuracy of these figures will be entirely dependent on the accuracy of your assumptions, but hopefully it will aid in your planning.

Prior to doing this experiment, I had a vague uneasiness about this issue, but now I know that there will be about 2,200 refugees that will pass directly in front of my property gate on foot, with some percentage of those probably daring to walk the mile-long driveway to my house. I'm still uneasy about the situation, but at least now it feels like a manageable problem instead of an unknown bogeyman. - Rex J.

Hello Mr. Rawles,
Blake's recent post on the fine art of "humping a pack" is much appreciated. I'm a bit of a backpacker, but have never been subjected to the rigors of "forced humping" for Uncle Sam. I've found that I rapidly become an unhappy camper when my pack weight exceeds 45 pounds. Thanks go to Blake for his service to our Country!

The magic (but painful) blister remedy to which he referred is Tincture of Benzoin (sometimes abbreviated Tr. Benzoin). This mixture of specific tree resins in alcohol, and it's cousin, Compound Tincture of Benzoin, are used in health care as a skin protectant when applying adhesive devices to skin. It has the added benefit of enhancing the tape's adherence, so the bandage stays on longer. Some in the hiking community have used it as Blake described, when the blister has already formed ,and you have no choice but to keep going (other hardcore folks use duct tape. I guess that's okay, until removal time!) As far as I can tell, there is little science available to confirm the "skin toughening" property that some attribute to Tr. Benzoin. Most probably it kills, or anesthetizes the superficial sensory nerves responsible for pain generation.

If you don't have a drill sergeant breathing down your neck, the best way, by far, to deal with blisters on the trail is prevention. As soon as you feel a hot spot, sit down, take off the boot and sock(s), rub your feet, let them dry out, find the hot spot, and plaster it with moleskin or one of the transparent bandages like New Skin (Tegaderm will also work). It is also critically important to stop and remove any pebble or debris in your boot as soon as you feel it. I've pushed it just a few more hundred yards, only to be sorry when a blister or abrasion occurs.

Once a blister has formed (again, if you have the luxury of tending to it without being shot or court-martialed) your primary focus should be prevention of infection. Try to protect the skin over the blister - as long as it's intact, bacteria have no access to the denuded dermis. A donut of moleskin covered with an adhesive bandage may help take the pressure off and preserve the skin. If there's just too much fluid in the blister to stand, clean the blister with an antiseptic (you do have alcohol pads or povidone iodine in your med kit, don't you?), insert a hypodermic needle near the edge (but still into the dead skin), and aspirate the fluid. Re-clean the blister and cover with a sterile bandage. Perhaps a little antibiotic ointment would help prevent infection and reduce friction.

At any rate, use your head. If you have the freedom to stop and prevent, then stop and prevent. If not, do the best you can, but always trying to prevent infection. One other thing that Blake said that bears repeating - sock liners are great! I like the thin, white ones that you can buy cheap at outdoor stores. When used with good hiking socks, the friction is reduced dramatically. They're so light you can take multiple pairs and stretch the smelly expiration date of your hiking socks, while keeping something clean against your feet. They're also easy to wash and dry quickly. I highly recommend them!

One more thought about on-the-trail foot care: be sure to trim (and file smooth) your toenails before a backpacking trip! I forgot this once, and a toenail attacked the adjacent toe! Trimming toenails with a survival knife is an adventure, at best! I now remember this prep duty, and have allocated 1 oz. in my pack for nail clippers (yes, I know I'm a weenie).

Best to all, and, as always, thank you for all you do Mr. Rawles. - Pharmacist S.H. in Georgia

James:
This is a well written article full of excellent information – my thanks to Blake!

I have never been in the military but have been backpacking most of my life. I agree that moleskin is a waste of time and will do more harm than good. But one item I always carry in my first aid kit is a Second Skin Moist Burn Pad. These not only work well on burns but blisters as well. To apply, first clean the area; cut out a section about twice as large as the blister; peel the covering off one side; apply the peeled side to the blister; then carefully tape it on. The pads are sterile, so they are fine on open blisters as well. Just make sure you put the remaining portion in a Ziploc and squeeze out the air so that it doesn’t dry out.

Blisters can incapacitate you quickly and lead to some nasty infections, so treat those feet with respect! Make sure you put on those boots and that pack and hit the trail at least once a week so that if the SHTF, your equipment and your body are ready. - C.W.B.

Mr. Rawles,

I wanted to make a few comments on this Blake's Art of Humping a Pack. Having been in Special Forces I have spent more than enough time ‘humping’. Most things I read here I can only agree with, now I feel I have something to add.

Taking care of your feet, Blake is right on. Changing socks often is critical. Dry feet are happy feet. I have found problems with cotton socks, I recommend wool or synthetic. Always powder your feet when putting your socks on. If you feel a hot spot, stop and fix it before it becomes a blister. My worst blister came from a short ruck march when I didn’t want to stop and fix what I knew was becoming a blister.

With regards to Tincture of Benzoin, it really does work! If you are going add this to your kit be advised that most tincture of benzoin that you find at your local drug store has an aloe mix and does not work. You need to go to a medical supply store to get the pure tincture of benzoin! I have found that if you put a hole on one side of the blister, inject the tincture from the other side, until all the pus is flushed out, and then push the skin down to stick it together. "Painful" is an understatement but it does work. If you don’t have tincture of benzoin, another solution is to use needle and white thread (colored threads will cause infection) and run it through your blister leaving the thread in your blister. The thread will act as a wick to allow the pus to drain. With this method there is a higher risk of infection but if you have to get somewhere and you feet aren’t cooperating, this will work.

Waterproof bags in your pack is critical. Water is weight, the only water you want in your pack is the water you can drink. I have seen soldiers come out of a creek with their pack weighing much more than when they went in. Painful and unnecessary.

I recommend layering your equipment. I would always carry a survival kit (built out of a M16 Ammo Bandolier, under my shirt which contained some food, a water packet, small candle and matches, space blanket, simple medical kit, small knife and flashlight. Then I had my pistol belt with butt pack which is your fighting load which includes food, water, ammo, a couple pairs of socks and whatever basic cold weather gear might be needed. Last comes the pack with everything else; more water, more food, more socks, more ammo, … . That way if you have to dump your gear you can still get by.

Lastly, as much as good physical conditioning can allow you to carry a lot of gear the Marines did a study of the soldiers load and determined that 4/5ths of 1/3rd of your body weight is the optimum load for sustained load carrying. (The rule of thumb for pack animals I understand to be 1/3rd of body weight). So optimum load for a 200 lb male comes out to 53.3 lbs. Again, this is for optimum sustained load carrying.

Keep up the good work. - Steve T.

James Wesley;
I've only recently started reading your site. I'm enjoying both the current posts and the archives.

The article on humping a pack is consistent with my own experience. I'd like to add two points for your consideration.

First, the issue of how to carry a handgun when carrying a large pack. You get over 30 pounds pretty quickly when loading a pack. Any weight that high demands a good hip belt. You then carry most of the weight on your hips, not your shoulders. With both a hip belt and shoulder straps, all of the usual places to carry a hand gun are occupied. Neither belt holsters nor shoulder holsters work. You can do a thigh rig if you don't mind open carry. I never liked them. I much prefer concealed carry wherever legal. The best solution is a thing called a Safepacker, which you can find at The Wilderness web site. It was designed and made by a guy who needed to carry a large handgun on mountain search and rescue operations. It pads and conceals most any size self defense handgun you might carry. I hang mine on my hip belt. Looks just like any other part of the pack, is quick to access, is very secure, lasts a long time. You can hang them most anywhere on the pack. They come in both left and right hand models and have room for spare ammo and a nice velcro pocket for paper or ID. One tip - go with a larger size if in doubt which one to get. In most jurisdictions, carry in a Safepacker is regarded as concealed, not open carry.

Second a large pack makes you an unsteady bipod. In anything but swamp, a walking stick or two is a great tool. It makes you more stable, is handy for discouraging dogs and snakes, allows you to rig an effective bipod to steady a rifle or use as a monopod for the rifle if you give some thought to the handle end of the thing, gives you a handy way to poke at anything suspect, and gets your arms working a bit, defeating the dreaded "sausage fingers" that happens when you hump a pack with your arms dangling down for a few hours. The only down side is that you cannot do this if conditions demand you carry a rifle or shotgun at the ready. You can take your pick of many available walking sticks marketed for backpackers. Look for light weight. You don't need or want ones with built in spring shock absorbers. Too noisy. You do want to be able to pick your "basket" so you can get a big one if needed to stop from sinking deeply into snow or mud. You can get ones that telescope into small sizes so you can strap them to your pack. You can get ultra light carbon fiber ones that are maybe too fragile for most folks to use. You can get a rubber tip to use the sticks on pavement. You can also forgo commercial ones in favor of something more stout you can make yourself out of wood or metal - makes for a better weapon, but ounces count, so I like light ones. When I first saw walking sticks, I scorned them as trash for urban tree huggers. Then, I sprained an ankle and learned to love the things. On ice or scree, they can save your life. - JEJ

Greetings Jim,
I hope this Email finds you well. I would like to respond to the art of "Humping a pack". Some regard me as a bit of an expert, I have been backpacking the Northwest Cascades and the Pacific Crest trail for the last 20 years, including climbing a few of the more well known Mountains and have week-long excursions down to a science in terms of needs and weight. One of the misconceptions that people have with regards to backpacking is focusing on the military as a general guideline for equipment. Things like ALICE packs, MREs and camelback hydration systems work fine when you are backed up by [logistical] support, But these Items will only prevent you from truly being totally sufficient in a time when there is no support.

High quality internal frame backpacks with compression straps and gear are designed specifically for the task of self sufficiency and comfort, this includes climbing mountains, rock scrambles, and traversing uneven ground and doing this while hauling enough food for a week, plus gear.

MREs - Fine for a few days, but if you won't be around a food source for a week or longer, Lightweight Mountain House is a much better choice you can haul a weeks worth of food, and perhaps more if you are willing to eat late, and small, with their pro-paks.

Camelbak hydration systems - Guesswork is your only option here as to how much water is left, because you cannot see your consumption level because it is buried in your pack. Not a good thing when water is a primary concern. a better choice is two common water bottles, one packed inside at center-pack close to your back, the other rides topside for convenience.

Clothing, and this includes Socks - Clothes with any cotton are a giant no-no. We have a couple of sayings in the backpacking world, "Wool is worse" and "Cotton Kills!" all clothing should be synthetic, and wool blends only if you have to, with wool being around 35 to 40%. you only need two pair of socks: one to wear while the other is drying, synthetics dry fast, cotton absorbs, takes a long time to dry and clings to skin. Wool takes forever to dry. The objectives are to wick the moisture away from your skin, evaporation, and fast drying. Backpacking outlets carry clothing that is designed to keep you warm/cool, and wick moisture, soaking wet clothes can dry in minutes.

Moleskin - Only works in conjunction with rubbing alcohol, the area must be thoroughly free from oils and dirt before applying. if done correctly Moleskin can last for up to four days with a single application. if you have been fitted with right boots, moleskin probably wont be needed

Foot powder - We avoid it, as it only makes a mess of your feet, socks, and boots. The right socks make foot powder un necessary. Clip your toe nails short to avoid problems with the added weight and to save your socks from holes.

Boots - Spend the money. (Do web searches on Asolo and Vasque,) All feet may be different, but if you have to backpack across the country, or just across town, in the rain, snow, or blistering heat, these two companies make the boots that can do it.

Packing - Heavy items go center-pack against your back.

Packing enough gear goes hand in hand with packing the right gear, and knowing how to use what you pack. If you do it properly, some Items can serve more then one purpose, and you can be self sufficient for seven days or longer with as little as a 38 pound pack, this includes tent and sleeping bag, food, clothes, with rainwear, water filtration, stove. - Larry

Walking with a loaded pack on your back is what the United States Marine Corps Infantryman refers to as "humping".  And while it may not take a lot of brains to put a loaded pack on and walk, it has definitely become an art, science, or skill that is constantly honed by infantrymen of all types.

With eight years as a Marine Corps Infantryman I have learned quite a lot about the art of humping myself.  There are several factors that come into play before you strap on your pack and take your first step.

1. PHYSICAL FITNESS:  What is your current level of physical fitness?  For those of you who have thought about or have a plan for when the SHTF, you know that this is an important factor of yours and your family’s survival.  If throwing on your BOB and heading for the door with fifty lbs. of survival gear on your back is the first step of your plan, then your not going to get very far if you haven’t conditioned your body to take this kind of physical exertion.  The best type of physical conditioning for humping is humping.  You don’t have to be a long distance runner to be a good humper.  The best thing to do is to just strap on your pack and step off for a mile or three and then gradually increase the distance each time you go out, or at a reasonable rate (add a mile a week).  Every time you increase your distance you should also increase the weight of your pack.  I don’t recommend starting out with a fifty pound pack.  As with any kind of body conditioning you should start out light and work your way up as your body becomes used to your training.
   
   
2. PACKING:  Got a good pack?  If you don’t you better get one.  If the pack you have isn’t a good one you’ll find out once you start humping with it.  I won’t recommend much gear, because all personal gear is just that, personal.  Its your preference.  I will say this, you can’t go wrong with an ALICE pack. Are there better packs out there?  Yes, but when it comes to affordability including durability…it’s a proven product.  In the end it all comes down to what you prefer.  Packing is a separate art in itself.  The first rule in packing is “Ounces make pounds!”.  Nothing goes into the pack that you don’t absolutely need or can’t live without.  You should consider the weight and size of everything as you pack.  One of the most important packing aids that I’ve found through the years is one gallon zip-lock bags (buy the good ones they’ll last longer).  Use these to pack things separately inside your pack.  Stuff them full and then zip up the bag almost to the end, then (if packed with non-breakables) smash the bag to get all the air inside the bag out.  Then zip the bag up the rest of the way.  This will help keep you from wasting space inside your pack.  I would recommend packing breakable items in outside compartments, or packed in between zip-locks of underwear and T-shirts or something soft.  Zip-locs also help waterproof your gear inside your pack.  Using a waterproof bag or a trash bag as a liner will also work but this will give you added protection. Zip-locs also help keep your pack organized.  These can also be used as a washing machine as I found out in Iraq.   Stuff everything into your pack as tight as it will go, then cinch down the outer straps as tight as you can get them.  Second rule in packing is “A tight pack is a comfortable pack!”  If your adding or strapping items to the outside of the pack make sure they are secure.  When theses outer items shift our flop around they will cause you to sway and possibly fall if they are heavy enough.  Just the movement alone can cause you discomfort.  I would also recommend not strapping things to the top of your pack (sleeping bags, etc.) unless they are small.  These will push on the back of your head and cause unneeded neck pains, and you will have plenty of pains to worry about already.  These may also hinder your vision.  Strap them to the bottom of your pack if possible.  I would recommend food or energy bars and often used items to be in outside compartments.  This makes for easy access on short halts and maintains spillages to separate compartments.  Field strip your MREs down to the individual packages, get rid of the cardboard containers.  You can over-pack a few pounds on food.  Because you will be eating the food and essentially lightening your pack at the same time.  And your route to wherever your going may be unexpectedly altered, and you may be on the hump longer than you anticipated. And the third rule of packing, “If you can't put it on by yourself, It’s probably too heavy!”
   
   
3. GEAR POSITION: When you put your pack on make sure it’s adjusted to the center of your back.  Make sure all of the straps are secured to the pack frame properly and that they are tight around your body.  You may have to alter positioning of your personal gear that you are carrying on your body (canteens, ammo pouches, butt packs, etc.).  I recommend that your gear be positioned so the back pad of your pack frame sit squarely in the small of your back, adjust your pack straps accordingly.  Improper ride of the pack will cause extra back pain, and shoulder pain as the straps will be digging into your shoulders.  And setting the pack on top of your pouches may cause damage to them that you may not be able to repair.  I recommend your weapon go on last.  Be sure you are able to deploy your weapon as needed and get to spare ammo without the pack getting in the way.  And if you have to dump your pack, then make sure you can do so without it getting caught in your high speed sling and choking you.  You should know in the first mile whether you need to adjust your gear and pack. 
   
   
4. BOOTS & FEET:  An Infantryman or “Grunt” can probably tell you as much about foot care as a foot doctor, as these are generally their primary mode of transportation.   As before, I can’t and won’t recommend a boot.  Its personal preference.  However, please consider your local weather and terrain in selecting the proper boot.  Boots weigh a lot and take up a lot of space.  You can pack a spare set, but you may not have the room.  The best way to break in a new boot is to hump in it.  (Don’t forget to pack extra laces.) The only recommendation I’ll make is don’t skimp when it comes to buying boots.  They should be considered one of your most valuable survival tools.  Because having feet means you can still survive.  Pack plenty of socks, cotton or wool.  When humping, if you will wear a pair of dress socks under a pair of cotton or wool boot socks this will help prevent blisters.  Although you may still get them.  Only extensive humping and conditioning of the feet will prevent blisters.  They also make humping socks made out of Teflon that work good.  From my experience moleskin doesn’t work well if you are going to continue humping.  It just pulls the blister off. Ouch!  The best cure for blisters is Tincture of Benzoin Be ready for some pain.  It feels like someone is putting a blowtorch to your feet for about ten minutes.  But after that you will only experience minor pain or no pain at all from the blister.  You can put it on an open blister or draw the puss from the blister with a syringe then insert the tetra-benzoine into the blister with the syringe.  I’ve had it both ways.  I prefer the syringe method because it leaves the skin on over the blister.  This method once cured me of two half dollar-sized blisters, one on each heel.  After only a ten miler in broke in boots.  I felt no pain within fifteen minutes, remained in the field the whole week and we speed-humped out that Friday and I got no blisters.  It works.  But it will make a grown man cry.  Or want to.  Don’t forget foot powder and anti-fungal powder or cream.  Change socks daily, or soon after your feet get wet.  Also when humping don’t take your boots off until the end of the day, or unless changing socks.  When you stop for a break take off your pack but try not to sit down.  This makes your feet hurt when you stand back up and start walking again.  Let your feet air out in the open every chance you get.
   
   
5. HYDRATION:  Water is good for you anyway, but you will need a lot if you are humping.  You may have to plan your route around watering spots.  Try and hump as much water as possible.  Don’t forget to consider the weight though.  Get a camelback or similar hydration system.  These work great while humping since you don’t have to mess with screw caps or bottle tops.  If you can wear the hydration system under your pack it’s beneficial in case you have to drop your pack you don’t loose your water.  Always keep some kind of water on your body with your personal gear.  I recommend filling the hydration bladder on each stop to prevent running out between scheduled stops.  Some type of sports drinks or powder are good to have on hand as you will loose a lot of electrolytes while humping and these are good sources for replenishing those and will do so faster than plain water. 

Now I know that a lot of this information may not apply to everyone since a lot of you will only be moving so far to a retreat or cache.  And you will all be moving at your own pace, or as fast as the slowest person in your group.  A lot of you may not even be going anywhere.  But if a time comes when you have to "Ruck Up” then this may come in handy.  I may have some more points to add later. 

The recent SurvivalBlog piece titled "Survival Tips for the Business Traveler", by F. Russell was well written with lots of good information. I also travel on business and didn't see anything I disagreed with but I would add a couple of items if you care to link my comments to the article.

1) No matter how well you plan, if you travel much over the road you are going to be places where the fuel in your tank is not enough to get you home. Be that because of the distance you are from "home" or that traffic congestion or your attempts to find back road routes burns more fuel than normal. The assumption is that obtaining fuel, especially along interstates during a melt down will be Nye on impossible as either the electricity is out and they cant pump fuel or the lines are so long that waiting puts you in danger.

Build your own 12 volt fuel transfer pump (better yet build two). Go to your local auto parts supply store and order or purchase a fuel pump with as much GPM as you can afford. The one I got was about $100 for the pump. Then purchase a good fuel filter, a cigarette lighter "plug" with an in line switch and 25 feet of tubing. I mounted mine to plywood squares that are about 10" X 10". With that device you can pull up next to another vehicle or even into the gas station and put your hose down into the ground tanks at the station and transfer fuel into your tank. I am not suggesting stealing the fuel...this device has saved my bacon already.

2) Cary a bicycle with you. You can go to pawn shops and get pretty decent bikes for $40. Put some extra tubes and patch kits and bike pump in your BOB. I frequently travel to a city that is 180 miles from home. That's only a three hour drive but it would take someone even in good shape a long time to walk. IF you could cover 20 miles a day it would take you nine straight days to walk home. That's a long walk. On a bike however its a much different matter. Riding a bike 100 miles in a day is a hell of a workout but it can be done.

3) Consider putting an EMP ground on your vehicle, especially if you perceive high risk time frames.

4) If you have the resources, this may not be the ultimate road warrior machine but its up there. I travel in a 2007 Itasca Navion (The Winnebago "View" is basically the same vehicle) At 24 feet in length its not much longer than my pickup and on the Sprinter chassis its more maneuverable than my pickup. Its Mercedes Benz 5 cylinder turbo diesel engine and Mercedes transmission run like a sewing machine. There are stories of people getting 22 MPG. I haven't done as well but did get around 19 MPG. Small enough that you can parallel park in downtown name the city but large enough to be fully self contained and carry a lot of stuff. Rest stops and truck stops are dangerous places...you don't need to "go there" as you have your bathroom and your kitchen with you...the only stops you need to make are for business and fuel. If you have a large distance to cover in an emergency you can run that engine for days without shutting it off..do that in gas motor car and you could be in for trouble.
Regards, - B.H.

For many, the idea of preparedness seems like an impossible undertaking. The amount of equipment and supplies needed is staggering. When I first came to the realization that I was under prepared, the gap between what I had and where I needed to be was too much for my public servant’s paycheck to bear.

I would spend a lot of time discussing preparedness with a group that I would go shooting with, and all of these meetings would always gravitate to “which weapon do you plan for X meters?” or “how many rounds do you think I need for X weapon?” I love to talk guns, but if we were discussing preparedness as a whole, we were leaving out lots of basic needs!

It seemed that the plan was to square one area of preparedness away before moving on to the next. I asked myself “what happens if I have to leave tomorrow?” I realized that having a little bit of everything to survive was better than having a pallet of ammo, but no food or water. This is where I decided that being honest about what I actually set aside for emergencies and developing a starting point was the best plan.

A friend of mine once said “you can’t boil the ocean; you have to start one pot at a time”. I developed the idea of categorizing my list of necessities then deciding what was a minimal level all the way to when I felt fully prepared.

This Good/Better/Best approach has helped me get a handle on the holistic approach to preparedness while still allowing me to keep my bills paid. A side benefit is that this incremental approach was that it was easier to get my wife to think about being more and more prepared without being in the poorhouse.

The first step is to categorize what types of things you deem necessary to survive. There are great resources already written that lay out categories and what goes in each, and this is not the the purpose of this article. For ease of discussion, I will use a couple examples such as food, water, communications, medical, etc.

The second step is to determine what your realistic plans will be, and set minimums for each option. Looking at these plans through the good/better/best approach I will explain how this incremental plan allowed us to stick with a plan and grow it as we can.

Good Plan (Bug In). This is most likely for many of us, such as floods/tornadoes/earthquakes. I know, to many people, planning on bugging in is not considered a ‘good’ plan, but this is compared to being totally unprepared, so being self sufficient at your house is a good start. The fall of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 gave my wife and I a wind storm that knocked out power for 10 days at our house, and an ice storm that knocked out power for an additional 8 days. Now the situation was not dire enough to pick up and leave, therefore the “bug in” was appropriate for us both times. Having set minimum supply requirements for a ‘good’ plan allowed us to manage the wind storm without any problems. Now lessons learned during the wind storm allowed us to plan for the following ice storm. We were better prepared for the second storm than the first, and it was fortunate since the weather conditions were worse. I can guarantee that we are better prepared now from those experiences.

Better Plan (Bug Out). A better plan would be to not only be prepared to bug in, but have the ability to mobilize with needed supplies and move to a predetermined location. This would be some factor that makes it not safe to remain at home. My wife and I have just built on to the existing supplies by adding the proper vehicle, and storing supplies in such a manner that they can be loaded into the vehicle in a matter of minutes. One thing that we both had to agree on was where were we going in case we had to pick up and leave. We still aren’t in a financial place to acquire retreat land, but we have trusted friends on a farm that we have that agreement with, and not only do we have our routes planned, but we have also stored some additional supplies at this ‘better’ location.

One thing that my wife and I have agreed on is certain red flags that prompt a bug out. We both work in emergency services and watch the news and the general demeanor of the public that we deal with on a daily basis. While nothing has necessitated a evac, there have been plenty of times when I drive to work loaded down with supplies and plans to meet her on the way out of town.

Again, let me reiterate that we weren’t comfortable moving to bug out plans until we felt that we could sustain ourselves at home for one month, since this was the what we considered as our minimum criteria. I wanted to get a bug out vehicle first, but after thinking about it, if I didn’t have a minimum supply of things such as food/water/shelter, then the vehicle wasn’t going to do a lot of good. Once our minimum amounts were met, then a truck was squared away, while also adding more to our supplies. The key was not to let the ‘fun’ purchases such as guns and vehicles get ahead of more mundane things such as spare medications and kerosene.

Best Plan (Retreat Living). As Mr. Rawles has pointed out, this is the ideal plan. Being able to weather any problems that befall us from within the confines of our own well prepared retreat is great. This is our ultimate goal, and with each bill paid off, it comes a little closer. However, I would guess that the most of us don’t wake up one morning and decide that ‘I think I’ll go buy a remote tract of land and build an uber-retreat on it’. You will have to decide when you can financially make this move, but you can’t go unprepared while you are saving for that moment.

I can’t give you a perfect plan to see you through incremental preparation, since no two people will have the same situation. What I can suggest is that you start with a pencil and paper, and be honest with what is set aside for rough times. Decide what supplies you will need per person (don’t count regularly used groceries, these are off limits until they near their shelf life- then replace, use or donate), and set a minimum of each category so you can gauge where your gaps are.

If you’re like us, when you sit down and write out what you have in the house, then separate those supplies from the others, you may be surprised at how prepared you are compared to what you thought. You may be well above minimum on certain things and seriously deficient on others.

Setting benchmarks for your categories should keep you on track as far as reaching each level of preparedness in a holistic way. Without these benchmarks, it becomes too easy to focus on one area, and neglect others.

Using the Good/Better/Best approach as it pertains to specifics.
Another place that I use the good/better/best approach is in each category of our preparedness. I consider a good (minimum) is having a quantity on hand, a better is having the means to get more, and best is having a sustainable/replaceable supply. I will give some examples of how this approach may be interpreted.

Water.
Good- One gallon per person per day, for X number of days.
Better- In addition to stored water, having purification means such as chemical/UV/filtration systems.
Best- Having a well, spring or refillable cistern in addition to the aforementioned.

Food.
Good- MRE’s and stored food.
Better- Stored food as well as hunting supplies and seeds
Best- Healthy land to hunt and farm, as well as canning means.

Communications.
Good- A single 50w HAM radio and some training
Better- 50w mobile base station and 5w handhelds for members of the group.
Best- A base station/repeater, 50w mobiles in every vehicle, and 5w’s for the group.

Medical (training)
Good- EMT
Better- Paramedic
Best- Wilderness Paramedic.

These are just some examples of how the good/better/best approach can allow you to become prepared all around incrementally, without running yourself into serious debt while doing so. Notice how each step builds on the last, as this allows you to constantly improve your preparedness, while not neglecting any area.

One last note- I challenge everyone to thrive by learning to adapt, rather than artificially maintain your comfort level. To clarify, during our winter power outage, my wife and I found alternate means to bathe, heat the house using our woodstove/kerosene heater, and worked by lamplight. Some neighbors tried to run their homes via generators, to find that some were stolen, broke down, and frequently ran out of fuel.

My challenge to you is to become familiar with your comfort zones and push past them. How long can you go without hot coffee? How about cigarettes or alcohol? How picky an eater are you or your family? These are not things to deal with when TSHTF. If you can quit any vices and expand your comfort level to outside the norm, then when the time comes, your stresses will be lessened.

Introduction

I currently do not fall in the category of the less than 1% of the population that can afford the real possibility of a "retreat" on 40+ acres, based on a Rawlesian criteria. However, I do have a solid brick house on 1.5 acres in a rural area on the southern plains. For the immediate future this will have to serve as my permanent abode. I have always had an interest in outdoor survival skills, and have lived, vacationed, and worked for extended periods of time in isolated outdoor camps while working "in the bush" with limited modern comforts. These experiences have taught me numerous self sufficient survival skills: basically camping or "roughing it" comfortably while providing clean water, safe and sanitary kitchen facilities, latrines, and other amenities. In addition to some time outdoors spent tracking, hunting and fishing, these experiences have given me an "outdoorsman" background. I also believe that I have a basic "survivalist mentality" and am sure I have a better than average knowledge of the skills and planning needed to survive a variety of chaotic situations the future may bring. However, I have not prepared in the past as I should. I have only recently begun to get organized for any serious long-term survival scenario. Part of this process has been to take stock of my situation. In doing so I have identified many of the pros and cons of my lifestyle and current living conditions (I have a young family, am not close to retiring, have some debts, and am a fairly new homeowner with a mortgage). I believe the end of the world as we know it is already happening in a slow, not so subtle slide. Plan A is to keep preparing for a self sufficient life at home and hunker down, and if TEOTWAWKI is in the form of a dramatic upheaval in society (as many describe) we may have to go to Plan B (get out of Dodge), followed by Plan C (make a last ditch effort to live off the land until order is restored within a few months) or until my family unit can join up with a like minded group. I know that Plan B or C have a less than good chance of "success" (they are for true dire straits), but at least we have a fall back plan. As described below, future preparations are still required to strengthen our plan.

The following outlines my basic situation, which I suspect is comparable to that of many citizens who are in the process of preparing better for an uncertain future, and includes a variety of skills and items I have recently taken stock of. In doing so, I will provide some profile information on my current state of readiness (Part 1) while attempting to offer advice on a few sets of skills and items I haven't seen on most of the basic “beans, bullets, and band-aid” lists (Part 2).

Part 1: My Homestead and Basic Resources

Based on Rawles' criteria, my region has a moderate retreat potential.  To start with, the main detractors are that I am less than 10 miles from a large population center (over 100,000), the region has high insurance rates and is drought prone. However, we have fairly strong gun laws in this state with the right to carry a concealed handgun and an improving Castle Doctrine. Other benefits to my immediate region are that the smaller communities nearby and the wider region in general is conservative with strong Christian family values. I have a wife and several children under 13-years old. I have a stable job and pay my bills and taxes. My wife is very frugal and is the list maker. We share the common goal of insuring our family’s future, and contribute to assisting extended family, friends and community when possible. I have not been able to convince her to store the food stocks we should need for a long term period of hunkering down, or some of the other measures suggested by Rawles and others for this scenario. However, the soils are good for gardening and farming. My house is double walled (it was a pier and beam wood frame house that was moved to the current location and then bricked over), our homestead has a deep well (with a brick well house) and septic system. We have piped natural gas for heating and hot water systems, and electricity from a co-op. I have a greenhouse with plumbing, a large garage and shop with an air compressor and well stocked with tools and various home and auto repair materials. We have a small supplemental solar kit that is expandable. We plan to go to a grid-tie with backup system soon and eventually go off-grid with a hybrid solar - wind system. We regularly make a shopping trip to the nearest Habitat for Humanity Restore (we consider this a frugal man’s "home depot"), which has numerous home repair supplies and materials. We stock up on goods such as paint, PVC pipe and fittings, lumber, hardware, solid core doors, appliances and fixtures, etc. for very cheap prices. These are usually used and donated by contractors or home remodelers, and the price we pay is minimal. The money then goes to Habitat for Humanity for their operations. I search online sources for good tools and materials and have found fencing materials, farming and gardening supplies, soil, compost, PVC pipe, steel plates and pipe, appliances, and good used tools. Craigslist.com is one of go to sources for these materials - especially the free and barter goods. We obviously approach these transactions with a “buyer beware” attitude, however we have always had good luck and have met decent and interesting people in doing so. We are always looking for appropriate spare parts, tires, repair kits, hoses, belts, bolts, fluids, etc. on sale at big box stores or in classifieds. We also have other outbuildings and sheds which we have ongoing projects to modify for livestock housing and specialty workshops. I am in the process of designing a self sufficient chicken coop, and goat pens and barn. We are expanding our garden and rainwater catchment system. With any luck, I may in the near future have access to 15-100 additional acres of pasture and woods adjacent to my lot.

Vehicles: I drive a diesel 4x4 pickup, my wife has a fuel efficient VW with a gas engine. I am currently beginning to restore an early 1970s model Toyota Landcruiser. The skills I am learning to restore this vehicle (replace all old and worn mechanical parts, hoses, fluids etc.), and the versatility of this heavy duty wagon will be very useful in an uncertain future. It will soon be a bug out vehicle that can go anywhere, just not very fast. I am developing new “jack of all trades” skills and have always been able to tackle basic home and vehicle maintenance work, but lack experience in advanced auto mechanics or construction. I am planning some long term gas and diesel storage. Since diesel is easier to store for long term, the diesel truck will probably be the last working vehicle we will have if TSHTF.

In addition, I have a 31-foot early 1970s Airstream travel trailer. It has been fully refurbished and is basically self-sufficient with a few modifications. With additional water filters made from four tubes of PVC (gravel, charcoal, fine screen filters, and chlorine) an emergency water source can be pumped from to supplement the tanks. With an added solar trickle charger, the batteries can keep the lights and ventilation fans on. With enough propane, cooking and heating could be maintained for an extended period of time. I plan additional modifications to harden this trailer and improve its utility as our "escape pod". I do not have a private retreat, but hope to someday afford a sufficient amount of land in a good location (with Rawles' list of security details in mind) as a retreat. To keep costs down, all I need is suitable acreage with natural resources such as water and timber. We could transport the Airstream for shelter. I had a family member in the 1980s who had some land in the mountains, cut a small road in, leveled an area on the slope, dug a trench, lowered his Airstream trailer into the trench (stocked with guns, ammo and freeze dried food), and buried the whole thing as insurance against a "red army" invasion of CONUS. I never got to see this and do not know how long the stores lasted, but have recently considered a modified version of this tactic. By digging a ramped trench to back or pull a trailer into I could have concealment; using the back dirt as bunkers it would have built in mass for a ballistic barrier; natural insulation for heating and cooling; and other benefits. Mainly it is less expensive than building an underground bunker. In the mean time and until I can acquire private retreat land, with my diesel truck and “escape pod” I can bug out with the family and dogs anywhere within 400 miles on one tank of gas and be self sufficient for several weeks to months. Without additional food and supply stores or the benefit of a sustainable retreat location, this is obviously not satisfactory as a long term solution.

At present, I don't anticipate many scenarios which would require fleeing the homestead, so Plan A is really to continue to prepare and hunker down. As I mentioned, I am fairly close to a large population, but live in a rural area with dependable neighbors and open land flanking my homestead. In keeping Plan B as a working option, my wife and I plan several trips a year to educate the kids for a self sufficient lifestyle learned from camping, hiking, fishing and hunting and take these opportunities to practice outdoor survival skills. Other Benefits of preparing the homestead  as a "modified full time retreat" include the ability to pay off a few remaining debts as soon as possible. Except for the mortgage, I should be debt free in about 2 years. With a little luck and hard work, we will decrease this time and be financially independent sooner. I live close to work and can be home in 10 minutes, with little chance of running into any escaping hordes on TEOTWAWKI day. By homesteading, I feel I can meet many of the needs that Rowels and others have outlined for surviving TEOTWATKI.

I have a basic set of kits, tools and skills to feel a level of confidence that I can take care of my family in a crisis, and with some efficient planning, preparing, hard work, prayer, luck and protection from a guardian angel, we will be among the survivors if TSHTF.

Battery
Shotguns: I have owned a Remington 870 pump shotgun since I was a young teenager and am proficient in bird and small game hunting. I have studied self defense use of the "scattergun" or "streetsweeper" and feel confident I could protect my family and property if needed. I have recently purchased an 18.5” open choke cylinder barrel (riot gun barrel) and keep buckshot for home defense. I have about 300 rounds of various birdshot loads, 40 deer slugs, and several boxes of the buckshot. I would like to take some self defense training and properly engage in a long term training regimen - for all calibers and categories of guns I currently have. I also have 20 gauge, bolt action shotgun. It is solid, dependable and good for small bird and game hunting. 20 gauge shells take up slightly less storage space then 12 gauge, and we have about 120 birdshot shells in 20 gauge.

Rifles: Col. Jeff Cooper was a proponent of the Scout Rifle. (The specifications: .308 caliber, less than 1 meter in total length, less than 7.7 lbs, with a long eye relief scope (LER) and a tactical sling). I have a pseudo scout. I shoot a Remington 750 Woodsmaster chambered for a .243 Winchester. With a 22 inch barrel and OAL at 39 inches, 7.5 lbs, and full scope, it is meets most of the specs for a scout. Additionally, Col. Cooper lists this type of gun as appropriate for young or small-framed people (like myself). Also, my wife and 12 year old son will be able to shoot this rifle (my wife was formerly in the Army and is one of the only women I know who has qualified on the M16). One thing I like about the .243 is that I can shoot it a lot with no recoil pain. Since I am less proficient with the rifle (compared to the shotgun) I need to practice more often with this rifle. It is a semi-auto feed and could carry five shots. I have a regular neoprene sling and BSA 3-9 x 50 scope, best used for deer hunting. I have left the iron sights installed and could drop the scope if needed. Following Cooper's criteria for proficiency, I should be capable of shooting less than 4" in 3 shot groups at 200 yards. I need more practice. I am better with the .22 LR rifle and have two: a single shot and a bolt action. While varmint hunting with friends, I have found that a semi-auto is much more practical (rabbits are not easy to hit on the run). I plan on obtaining one soon. A dependable, basic AR-15 style rifle is also high on my list of needs; we need to protect the livestock from predators/coyotes. I bet my wife will enjoy showing me how to field strip and operate it!

Handguns: I have a Ruger P345. This semi-auto hand gun shoots the classic .45 ACP, but fits my small hand and frame, is relatively light weight (compared to a 1911, or large .357 or .44 magnum revolver). It is appropriate for concealed carry, but I carry my .380 much more comfortably. I have studied Col. Cooper's Modern Method and have been practicing a version modified to fit my gun's specifications. I currently have about 500 hundred rounds of .45 ACP ball for targets or varmints, several hundred rounds of JHPs (I prefer the CCI Lawman 200 grain JHP, aka “The Inspector”) and add a box of 50 whenever I have a chance. If I plan on shooting 50 rounds at the range or on a friend’s ranch, I buy 100 rounds. I also have a semi-auto .380 which is easy to carry concealed. It is a Bersa (Argentinean) and a clone of the classic Walther PPK. The .380 Remington JHP 88 grain bullet can penetrate well enough into a solid wood backstop I use for target practice. It is half the size of my .45 and works well in an everyday concealed carry situation. I don't shoot this weapon as much as I should, but am more accurate in short range (under 20 feet) with it. To quote Cooper: “The purpose of the pistol is to stop a fight that someone else has started, almost always at close range." He also stated that a pistol is used to help get you back to your rifle if you are separated in a fight.

I keep a few of Jeff Cooper’s quotes handy to always remind me why I have a small battery. He also states that, "the police cannot protect the citizen at this stage of our development, and they cannot even protect themselves in many cases. It is up to the private citizen to protect himself and his family, and it is not only acceptable, but mandatory." I also learned from Cooper to think strategically more than tactically and demand of myself proficiency in my gun use. In addition to shooting at targets basically in my backyard, I try to practice shooting in non-target range situations. Hunting and plinking on a friend’s ranch offer some of the few opportunities where I can practice scenarios in handling and shooting firearms in real life situations of being constantly armed with long and short guns (proper gun handling with a group of people, in and out of vehicles with weapons, hunting & target practice in different seasons and different times of day and weather).

Working Dogs
Although all of our dogs are pets and part of the family, they serve multiple purposes. I decided to mention them in my profile for others to consider the attributes of these breeds. I have a Catahoula. This is a multipurpose dog supposedly bred from the first Spanish War Dogs that the Conquistadors brought to the Americas in the 16th Century mixed with Native American dogs. The Catahoula is a ranch dog bred in Louisiana and trained for various tasks: cattle or goat herding, small varmint hunting (they can tree coons and are even known to climb trees in pursuit), hog hunting (they can be trained to pursue and kill wild hogs in specially trained teams of three dogs), and bird hunting (they can point and hold). Although a single dog cannot be trained to do all of these tasks, this is a very versatile breed or working dog that I think would make an excellent survival breed. They are very intelligent and loyal as a family protector, have a medium to large build (50-70 lbs), and are good guard dogs. They do have short coats and would not be a great choice for an outdoor only dog in a location with long cold winters. We also have two Chihuahuas (my wife's dogs), the only use I have for these little dogs is that they make great indoor alarms. If the doors open, windows rattle, or a vehicle comes near the house, we hear the Chihuahua alarm! They are bred for rodent catching and I wish I could use them for this task, but my wife is afraid that they would die from eating poison ingested rats or mice if we used them for such... In a SHTF situation, I would unleash them in the food storage area and let them earn their keep. They are very small and need minimal food and water. If allowed to do what they were originally bred for, I wouldn't doubt they would contribute to the family security by keeping the vermin out of the food storage area.

Our “need to do” list is long. It includes:

• Food preparation and storage
• Improved garden
• Solar pump and new well and storage tank sufficient for several days of no sun
• Propane tank to convert from natural gas, if necessary
• High security fence around 1.5 acre homestead
• Complete reloading bench & tools (have basic scales and brass)

Part 2: Primitive Survival Tools & Skills

If we have to fall back on Plan C (G.O.O.D. and live off the land - at least to supplement our diet), then I have a basic knowledge of primitive outdoor survival skills that should help me to work hard at supplying my family with some basic necessities. In addition to hunting, fishing and tracking skills, I have practiced the primitive arts of making a fire using a fire bow, making and using a hand drill, and flintknapping. I do not offer the following as a substitute for modern tools and techniques, but as an emergency supplement or replacement. We have progressed from Stone Age tools to steel and computer age materials to our own benefit, but the stone age tools and techniques helped man survive for many thousands of years and they could have a use in modern survival situations. Just as with any modern tools (firearms, chainsaws or a 4x4 diesel truck), the manufacturing/maintenance and use of the "primitive" tools is not easy to learn and one should not acquire these skills after your life depends on them. Also, just because these are referred to as "primitive" tools, doesn't mean they are not carefully and expertly made or mastered. I have a lot of practice and can manufacture (through flintknapping) a basic stone knife and set of scrappers that would be suitable for wild game and food processing. With additional practice, I continue to improve my skills in manufacturing stone dart tips for arrows or spears. I have not attempted to make a bow and need to practice this, but have assisted an old friend in the process. However, one expedient tool I can make for throwing a projectile is the atl-atl (or dart thrower).

The atl-atl is a primitive weapon which was used by our early ancestors for thousands of years before the bow and arrow was invented and copied. It is capable of launching a projectile (called a dart) very accurately and with enough velocity to penetrate and kill large game efficiently. Native Americans hunted bison and other large game with this simple tool kit. It is made by carving a shaft of wood with a handle and a spur (or cup) which the dart is seated in before launching it. The atl-atl is about 24-30 inches long, and can be carved from a tree limb (ash or many other hard but not brittle types of wood can be used) with a small hook or stub of a branch left for the spur. It is advisable to attach two finger loops on the handle end. These make it easier to keep the atl-atl in one's hand while throwing the dart. This simple tool allows the kinetic energy to be stored while the arm is in motion (a lot like a baseball pitcher’s motion using the arm and wrist). The dart can be projected 6 times farther than a hand-thrown spear with 150 times the foot-pound energy. With practice, the atl-atl can be accurate to 100 meters, but is best used at close range of around 20 meters. Its value as a survival tool is that it can be easily manufactured and operated silently. Hunting can be conducted with no noise to attract unwanted attention in any situation. One drawback with its use is that the hunter (or thrower) is basically standing and in the open while launching. With practice this can be minimized with camouflage and technique. One uses an atl-atl with minimal effort, and throws it by taking a step or two forward and launching the dart with a quick snap of the wrist. It really doesn't take much effort and is successfully done using a motion like casting a fishing line with a rod and reel. In fact, during demonstrations with 8-16 year old school kids, I have observed that the girls who are just trying to learn to do this without too much embarrassment out-throw the boys who are going for world record launches! 

The atl-atl's "ammo" consists of darts about twice the length of a standard arrow up to 5 or 6 feet. In fact, two modern aluminum arrow shafts can be screwed together with one set of fletching and one dart tip or point. Using natural stems of cane, willow shoots, bamboo, reed, or straight saplings would require a series of steps to complete a working toolkit for the atl-atl. A dart can be made in three parts: a foreshaft, a shaft, and fletching. The fletching is a row of feathers, usually short, trimmed one-sided wing feathers, glued to the base end like on an arrow. They are in three rows with a slight twist to provide steady flight and rotation. One outdoor survivalist (Alloway, 2000) also suggests using credit card strips set into the shaft, what a great way to put that plastic to use after TEOTWAWKI! Instead of a notch, like on the base of an arrow, the atl-atl dart base has a round divot for seating the shaft of the dart to the spur on the atl-atl. The foreshaft (made of a short 3-4 inch piece of shaped hard wood) is attached to the stone or metal point with glue (or tree sap) and sinew. All of the joints or areas on the shaft, foreshaft, and fletching that could spilt have to be reinforced with cordage or animal sinew. Acquiring these materials takes time and knowledge as well, but natural fiber string and "gorilla" glue or similar glue works great. Tree resin (such as pine) works as a natural glue to help hold the cordage intact. Once assembled, the foreshaft is jammed into a joint or hole on the “front” end of the shaft (opposite the fletching). This replacement technology allows for the need to make and carry only a few shafts, which are labor intensive to make, while having multiple foreshaft sections to reload with. The shaft sections also must be straightened. One way is by steaming and drying the wood or reed shaft while bending with a shaft straightening tool (a small block of wood with a round hole through it will work or a stone with a straight groove in it to run the shaft through until it dries). Use the "pool cue" or woodworker's test to eyeball it and see if it is straight. The shafts can and should be retrieved after launching. The other benefit of the foreshaft is that upon impact with the prey, it separates from the shaft leaving the sharp metal or stone point and 3 or so inches of foreshaft embedded where it causes massive internal bleeding as the prey's muscles contract and expand while running. The shaft can then be retrieved and reloaded with another foreshaft armed with a point. A blunt dart shaft or foreshaft can be used to stun or kill small birds and prey with just a fire-hardened wood tip - no need for "expensive" (labor or material cost) points. A side note on terminology: the term "point" or "projectile point" refers to the head, as in "arrow head," of the "projectile" - which is a general term for an arrow, spear or dart. The atl-atl "dart" is not a "spear" (which is a short, inflexible stabbing weapon). An atl-atl dart is a very advanced tool and took our ancestors many years of trial and error to develop as a silent, multi-component, high velocity, manual weapon. 

Fire making is another primitive art that is extremely important in an outdoor (or indoor) survival situation. A "fire bow" kit is easy to make out of natural materials found in most environments (desert, forest, mountain, plains, etc.) and is easy to master with practice. The kit contains a fireboard, socket, drill (or fire stick), and bow. The small bow (made like a toy bow and arrow) is made using a curved, stout but flexible branch or stick (about 24 inches long) with a bow string. The string can be made from a shoelace or parachute cord (natural fiber cordage can be used but tends to break from the rapid motion and friction it has to endure). The string is attached with enough slack to twist a short fire starter stick (called a drill or shaft) in it. It should be adjusted to be just tight enough - not too tight to be difficult to turn, and not too slack where it won't create the friction need to start a fire. The bow is rapidly manipulated (in a motion like a hand saw) to twirl the fire stick rapidly on a notched plank (called the fireboard). The fire stick (8-12 inches long) should be of soft wood (like willow or cottonwood) with a rounded, dull tip on one end that will help produce the ember; and a pointed tip that will seat in the socket (which is held in the non-bow hand) on the other end. The socket has to fit in the hand comfortably and is gripped to hold the twirling fire stick in place. It should be a cupped rock, but hard wood or a dish shaped piece of scrap iron can work. The notch on the fireboard, or plank, is to allow the fine saw dust (created during friction) and the important small ember to fall through on a bed of tender. Dry grass, a dry bird's nest, wasp nest, pine needles, cotton, or steel wool make good tender. The fireboard (plank) should be of dry wood, at least a half-inch in thickness, and thick bark is often the best plank. Pine is very useful in starting a fire due to its flammable resin content and can even be used when damp. Care should be taken to have all materials ready before starting to use the fire bow. This takes some effort, but preparation is most of the battle. Only a small ember is created in the process and must be handled appropriately. This is “cardio vascular” exercise and can produce a quick sweat. Use care to keep sweat from dripping onto the tender or plank and extinguishing your ember. Google these tools for pictures and other tips. One the ember is produced and lands or is placed in the tender, blow long, steady breaths to get a flame. Add this to your pre-set kindling and build up a good fire. (See other entries in the survivalblog for light security and safe methods of laying in wood.) 

One item in everyone's G.O.O.D. kit, BOB, vehicle glove box, bedside table, pocket, belt or boot should be a good steel edged knife. It is one tool that we should all hope to never leave home without. However, if separated from a good steel blade, or to supplement a small knife in a survival situation, one can manufacture a substitute tool kit from stone. Flintknapping is a skill our ancestors used for thousands of years to produce most or all of the tools needed to hunt, gather, and prepare most if not all the food and materials needed to survive in most of the climates humans have ever "survived" in. Hunting, butchering, and game processing, vegetable gathering and processing, hide scrapping and prepping, leather work, wood work, and many other tasks (including mortal combat) can be conducted with stone tools. A basic flintknapping tool kit for producing these tools includes: one or more hammerstones, soft hammer billets made from wood and/or deer, elk or moose antler, antler tines for pressure flaking, and a leather pad for protecting the palm and leg. It is not easy to do, and has a steep learning curve. I will outline the basics and suggest further research, kit assemblage, and practice be planned as part of one's overall survival strategy. There are numerous flintknapping groups across the U.S. and a variety of resources to help one get started. Besides the basic "knapping kit" described above, the main resource needed for flintknapping is a good quality "flint." There are various minerals that can be knapped (chert, obsidian, fossilized wood, quartzites, and others) and identifying useful materials is something knappers and archaeologists who study these primitive techniques do. I suggest Google research on this and a trip to visit a local geologist, rock quarry, rock shop or mountainman's rendezvous to start learning how to identify the right raw materials.

Once preparations are made, please remember that this is a potentially hazardous activity. Knapping is done by smashing a "core" (usually a fist sized cobble of a quartz material) with a "hammerstone" (a stream rolled dense stone, also usually quartz which needs to be solid and hand held). This is done usually by holding the core in or near one's lap or on the thigh. A near miss can cause pain or injury, and rock spalls are the desired result (which can fly in all directions and penetrate flesh, eyes, or bystanders. This should be done over a tarp (to help in cleanup) or in an area that is not a living space, especially one that isn't walked on barefooted, by people, pets or livestock, or used for food processing or sleeping, etc. Eye protection, leg padding, gloves or a leather pad are necessary personal protective equipment (PPE). By striking the core with the hammerstone at a controlled angle, a "flake" can be produced. In fact, one of the longest lasting technologies known to man is called "flake technology." Numerous flakes can be created in just a few minutes of knapping from one core. These are then selected for their ultimate use: arrow points, dart points or spear points; double edged or beveled knife blades; hide scrappers, etc. A core can be used multiple times and reduced to a very small fragment. A good knapper can pick up a core, visualize what he or she wants/needs to make, take a whack or two, pick up the flake, and continue the process. To make a bifacial tool (sharpened on two sides to hold an edge longer and able to penetrate flesh better) the knapper then can switch to the next tool in the kit, a soft hammer billet. These are "soft" hammer because they are softer than the stone material being shaped. In general terms, I think of knapping as whittling stone. These billets are about the size of a hammer and held and operated the same way. They are made from solid antler (deer, elk or moose) and sawn or cut to length. The base of the antler makes the working end of the billet and is ground or sanded round (a lot like the round end of a ball-peen hammer). This is then used to more accurately strike the chosen flake (held by a piece of leather in the off hand and held stable against the padded thigh or a bench) and continue to shape the flake and sharpen its edge. The billet can be used to get the basic shape of the tool set up. The final step is to use the antler tine (or a rigid copper wire with a wrapped tape handle) as a "pressure flaking" tool. The prototype tool is then held firmly (with a glove or leather pad) against the thigh or bench, and the pressure flaking tool is placed just off the edge to be sharpened/worked. It is pressed firmly with a short popping motion toward the working edge which is away from the midline of the tool (difficult to describe, but fairly easy to do with a little practice). This is done to take off very small bits at a time (called micro-flakes) and continued around the sharp edges of the tool until the final shape and sharpness is obtained. To make arrow, dart or spear points or other tools like knives (that have to be hafted to a handle or dart shaft to be usable), the base of the stone tool will be shaped to fit a handle or shaft. The hafted end will need to be dulled (so it doesn't cut through the cordage used to haft it or bind it to a shaft) by gently grinding it on a stone. Even expert knappers have relatively high failure rates doing this, but practice helps with the odds. Beginning with the basic flake produced by cracking open a core, one can expediently produce a sharp cutting implement that is sharp enough to cut deeply into flesh. A raw flake will lose its edge quickly, but with ample stone cobbles around, this technique can be repeated and improved with practice. A raw flake with a little bit of work along the edge can hold a fairly sharp edge for small cutting tasks, and be "retouched" with minimal effort to maintain its sharpness to complete a job like butchering small game, cutting edible parts of a useful plant, etc. Again, these are no substitute for a good, American made, steel knife blade, but just may be needed in a survival situation. Hopefully, none of you will have to rely on these tools and techniques to survive, but I also hope you find time to learn a little more about them and practice once or twice, just in case you do need to rely on some primitive survival tools.

References:
Desert Survival Skills by Alloway, David. Published by University of Texas Press. Austin, Texas. 2000. 

The Art Of The Rifle

I'm both a family man and a business traveler. When I'm on the road, my primary mission is to do the best job I can and get home again. In the event of an emergency, that mission immediately reduces down to get home as fast as I can.  Most families have emergency plans that assume that the family or group will be together. But what happens if one or more of the group can't be there? When you're on the road, your primary mission in any catastrophic emergency is to get home to your family and support system. You can't fulfill your part of your community/family emergency plan if you're not there to do it. For those in a position similar to mine, I offer the following suggestions. These suggestions are preparatory in nature for the start of any catastrophic situation and carry the following assumptions: Trouble comes unexpectedly. Chance (luck & fortune) favors the prepared mind. And in periods of catastrophe, while good will may abound – predators abound as well.

1. Make sure that your family has an emergency plan that includes what to do when you're not home. Have primary, secondary and tertiary meet spots, as well as innocuous signals that will tell the other parties if they've left and where they're going.
2. Don't tell strangers or your casual neighbors (anyone not in your network) how long you'll be gone, even inadvertently. (Not even in your church as a prayer request!) My usual spiel goes something like this: “yes I travel for business, but with us trading vehicles and the garage, you can never tell which of us is home.” and: “I don't have a solid schedule, it's just a day here and the next day I'm there.” Also: “Not telling” includes you generous souls who leave your garage door open all the time. You may think it's not a big deal because nothing ever gets stolen. But are you sure that you want undesirables to know that your family is there without a critical part of their survival plan? (You!) And don't think that someone isn't taking inventory and will notice if you aren't home. If you are gone and there is something that someone needs bad enough on the other side of a garage door – then the door is coming down. Once past the garage door, don't think they'll stop before checking out what they can get out of the house proper.
3. Have a “get home bag” and keep it with you. This is usually just your three day bug out bag (BOB) bag kept in the car. Though you might specialize the bag somewhat I'll still call it BOB. Keep your BOB with you. It's your friend. You don't want your friend to get lonely do you? Not too long ago backpacks, and especially camo backpacks were unusual and drew a lot of attention in the business world. Not so much anymore. Even in airports, (which I strongly suggest you avoid), it is not unusual to see men in suits with camo accessories. In any event, my Kettlebell draws more attention than any backpack.
4. Do not under any circumstances use BOB as your travel bag. They serve an different purposes. The get home bag is to get you home. It has no room for your work laptop, or even an extra change of socks for the trip. The next thing you know – you'll either leave BOB home or use it to live out of. I'm sure your luck will be better than mind, but I expect that about the one time I used BOB as a travel bag TEOTWAWKI would happen and I would be in the middle of nowhere with half-used resources.
5. Stay fit. The road is a great place to break your diet and get weigh over your target weight (pun intended). If “it” happens, you may end up walking home at least part way with BOB on your back. Better to do so when you're in good shape. Pick the diet that works for you and stick to it. Carry your workout equipment and routine with you if you can. Exercise equipment varies widely from hotel to hotel; but my Kettlebell is always the same. I was at a national brand upper scale hotel and found that 4 of the 6 machines didn't work at all, and due to liability issues, you can pretty much forget about free weights in any hotel chain. Take responsibility for your own equipment and work out in your own room. From personal experience, I know that this more than doubles the likelihood that you will actually exercise. An additional advantage is the when working out in your hotel room, you never need worry about who is watching you. While I prefer the Kettlebell, other great options include elastic straps, weights that fill with water, and mats for stretching and yoga type exercises.
6. Don't fly unless you absolutely must. Drive whenever you can. Airlines will make you leave or check all of your goodies. Unfortunately, the days of carrying even a pocketknife or multi-tool on a plane are gone forever; and (again) while your luck will probably be better than mine, my luggage is lost or late at least once per year. In 2008, I flew cross country with my company training materials checked in the plane. But it was hot that day and when I changed planes, they left my luggage on the ground to save enough weight to get the plane in the air. I was told that they could deliver the luggage “tomorrow” but I needed the materials by 7am the next day. So I sat in the terminal for 6 hours hoping my bags would show up on the next flight. BOB will do you no good if you are in Sacramento and BOB is in Los Angeles. So for business expediency, I have adopted a 4 hour rule: I will always drive if I can drive there within 4 hours of the door to door flight time. This is the equivalent of a ~500 mile radius. If the trip difference is less that 6 hours, I will usually drive, with my current location, this is the equivalent of a quarter of the US.
7. If you must fly, try not to share rental cars with people outside your your own geographical locale. In the event of another airline emergency, the flights will be grounded and if you don't already have a car or rental then you probably won't get one. I was 800 miles from home on 9/11. I had to fly out to the job site, but fortunately already had a rental car and was able to drive home. Typically I shared a rental car with another manager three states away in the other direction; fortuitously, we had for this “one exception,” acquired separate cars for this trip. Had it not been for that exception, the other manager and I would have been flipping a coin for the right to take the car home. I have never broken this rule since.
8. If you can legally carry a concealed handgun do so; and carry whenever you can. You never know when trouble is coming and just like your BOB or Get Home Bag; it will do you no good at home or locked in the trunk of your car. And let's face it, if you knew when and where trouble was coming, you wouldn't be going there in the first place right?
9. Know your surroundings. Sit where you can see what's going on, don't just look around, look around continuously. Know who and what is around you. This applies not only in restaurants, but in hotels, businesses, and even (or especially) on the road. Use your eyes, ears and nose to let you know what's going on. While on a business trip to Milwaukee in the late 1990s I found myself sitting in a regional chain family diner during the late lunch period. The activity in the kitchen changed and we noticed that the smell of food was gone. My coworker and I got up, paid our bill and left the building. As we pulled out of the lot a fire engine (the big one with the pumps, ladders and such) pulled into the lot entryway and parked, blocking most everyone who was still inside.
10. Be everybody's friend on the road. The waitress, the hotel clerk, the gas station attendant/clerk. Learn to tell a joke that doesn't offend anyone. Smile at everyone. You want to be that friendly guy that doesn't look like he'll harm a flea. Don't be the victim or the strong man. Both are targets for criminals, the victim for the opportunity to exploit, the strong man for his ability to interdict the criminal's plans.

Driving Tips for the Business Traveler:

1. Don't park “nose in” to a parking spot. If you nose in, you have to back out. In the case of an emergency, you may need to fight traffic to back out and may not have have the luxury of the time to do so. Also, if you back in, then you have the opportunity to make sure that no one is following you. By the way, this includes your own house! Every year, I hear several stories about people who are robbed or worse by predators who follow the driver into the house through the garage door. Turn around, double check your surroundings and then open the door and back in. Close the door and then get out. My more paranoid friends will add that once you back in, put the car in drive until the door closes. This way if predators come to get you, you can go forward out of the garage and away from danger.
2. Don't park where you can't get out. This includes areas near fire hydrants and dead end parking lots. If I have the choice, I don't park on the same side of the street as the  hydrant. Emergency vehicles will block you in. Losing your vehicle to a crime scene or other emergency makes it difficult to drive home.
3. Be willing to walk away. Travel is like a delicate negotiation, if you're not willing to walk away, then you increase the odd that your costs will be higher. Be flexible. If you can't abide by the rules, be willing to walk away.  I've been known to drive a few miles out of my way for special food: Great ice cream in Cincinnati Ohio, the best prime rib in Milwaukee Wisconsin, incredible Carne Asada in Childersburg Alabama, and “can't get them anywhere else”Green Chile Rellenos in Albuquerque New Mexico. Actually, I've been known to take a hundred mile detour or more for great food. But more than once, I've driven through or past the lot even after a detour because either it didn't look right, or I couldn't park so I could get out. I'm probably paranoid. But I'm also very alive and haven't lost any stuff.
4. Be willing to walk. Sometimes in order to comply with the park only where you can get out rule – you end up passing up the closest parking places. You can wear a jacket or hat if you don't want to get wet. Walking in to the building gives you the added advantage of time to check the place out inconspicuously. As with the previous tip, be willing to change your mind to go back to your vehicle and drive away. It something seems wrong, it probably is.
5. Don't park under a street lamp and not in the dark either. You've got up to a couple grand in your emergency bag. The light makes is easy for criminals to see, the dark makes it easy for them to operate. Pick the middle ground if available.
6. Don't show your stuff (Keep your mobile office hidden). If you mobile office is your life, don't expose your life to others. A lot of traveling professionals have near bleeding edge toys: laptops, PDAs, scanners, printers, GPS, etc. If you look like a traveling advertisement for the consumer electronics show – don't be surprised when people try to take it from you. Discretion is not only the heart of valor, but of security as well. Discrete does not mean to take all of your valuable stuff from the passenger seat and move it to the trunk whenever you stop for meals. I was at a truck stop in Ohio once where this guy did exactly that; and the entire truck stop watched him do it. Get creative and only have the stuff you need available when you stop. Keep the goodies hidden!
7. This should be obvious, but: Keep your gas tank full. The questions you need to consider is: How many fuel stops will I have to make before I get home? If I have to turn around right now, can I make it back the way I came, or around an unexpected detour? I'll confess to have broken this rule a time or two trying to get the cheapest gas or stop at my favorite diner. It almost cost me big time when an accident on the interstate made me take a 15 mile detour through no-man's land. I made it to a gas station, but it could have easily gone the other way.
8. Lastly, keep your car in good repair. Don't skimp on tires or fluids. Especially in inclement weather. One fluid that everyone forgets until they run out is washer fluid. Keep an extra gallon in your car. I shared mine a few years back with a sports car that ran out in middle Kentucky. It was the worst storm of the year and the station had run out of fluid to sell.

I think everyone here knows that preparedness is a much a matter of mind than stuff. And once everything goes south, this will be on everyone's mind. But I tend to view survival as as 24/7 issue: not just getting ready for when “it” happens, but anticipating that “it” could come at any time. And being ready. Blessings to you and yours.

James,
In response to the recently-posted writing contest article The Cessna 172 Bug Out Plan, by Captain Zoobie:

1. Unleaded gas works perfectly well in Cessna 172s. (Just use some leaded fuel once in awhile to lube the valves). Even with an open window, fumes from gasoline containers in the cockpit will likely be unbearable, especially at altitude! (You have to vent them or they might burst as you climb, the original poster should know this.)

2. If you want to be able to get out in an emergency, you should hangar your plane at a small airport and get out before authorities have time to come out and shut it down. Any larger airport will likely have the runways blocked with vehicles, and you might even get shot down by small arms fire if you try to escape.

3. In a real emergency, there will likely be a nationwide no-fly order in effect immediately, as on 9/11 and thereafter. If you want to escape with a no-fly order in effect, you'd better be able to fly at treetop level, and it would be best to know where radar stations are so you can stay over their horizon. If you fly at 8,500 feet, you are likely to get shot down. In any event, true preparedness would include a way to get down, get to a stashed vehicle, and then get away from the area before authorities show up looking for the 'terrorist' who defied the no-fly order. And if it's your own airplane, they'll know where to look for you. Quickly.

4. Add in one passenger, and the whole weight equation changes. It is better to have a place you can fly to where your stuff is stashed, and that you can drive to if weather is bad. A couple old vehicles at the destination with full tanks of fuel wouldn't be a bad idea either, for use as a fuel cache or escape, depending on conditions.

Conclusion: The airplane as a bug-out tool can be useful if there are warning signs of impending nuclear attack (don't rely on government or news to warn you explicitly), or if society breaks down enough that authorities won't have the resources to stop you. Otherwise, it falls under the heading of 'the more complicated and high-tech your emergency plans are, the more likely something will go wrong when you need them most'.

I'm a pilot, too, and love to dream about using an airplane to bug out. But the reality of it is, it's probably only going to be useful if it's used before TSHTF. Weather, conditions at the departure and destination points, potential hazards en route, ability to even get to your airplane, and running afoul of the air defenses of our military are just a few of the things that can foil this escape strategy.

Thanks for a great blog, - Anonymous John

Jim:
I think Captain Zoobie has a good beginning on a plan to use his Cessna 172 as a bug out vehicle, but there are a few things I would like to add.

* Beware of density altitude.

I live in the Sierra, and the nearest air port is Truckee (TRK). The airport is at about 5,900 feet MSL, but on a hot summer day the air can thin out so that the density (equivalent) altitude is 9,000 feet! When the air is that thin, you have 15% less power, 15% less thrust, 15% lift, etc.. Experienced pilots have killed themselves (and family members) because they underestimated the effects of density altitude. If there is any chance that Capt. Zoobie may do some mountain flying, I recommend he get dual time with an instructor who is well versed in mountain flying. Also, there is a gem of a book "Mountain Flying Bible " by Sparky Imeson. This is an excellent introduction to issues he will need to know about.

* Do a trial run packing the aircraft.

There is no substitute for practice. This also includes packing the aircraft and determining if all of that gear will actually fit. I would also suggest taking notes on the packing process if it turns out there are special 'hints' he should remember for next time.

* Is the useful load really 900 pounds?

It's been awhile, so my memory may be faulty, but I thought the 172 had a useful load closer to 700 pounds. In any case, the Pilot's Operating Handbook (POH) for the model in use is the gospel. Keep in mind that while the maximum load is legal, and structurally safe, the handling response will be degraded and he should avoid situations where rapid or violent control inputs are necessary (such as spin recovery).

* Ham Radio Repeater Networks

I've recently discovered that there are 2 meter ham radio repeater networks in areas I would not have imagined. If Captain Zoobie has a 2 meter band handheld, he can probably get very good intel on what's going on in the area, before he exposes his aircraft to danger. It
would be handy to laminate a list of repeaters, frequencies and PL tones that he will be traveling near. 73 and Best of Luck, - Bear in the Sierra

My Situation
I currently live at the outskirts of a larger metropolitan area. In the event of TEOTWAWKI, I want a way to quickly get out of Dodge. I have a retreat a few hundred miles away from where I live which I know my family can, and almost certainly get to in the event it is necessary.

I have my BOB for both my car and my home and while I could try to drive to my survival retreat, I recognize that survival is about adaptability and relying on my skills. I hold a pilot’s license with multiple ratings and want to discuss my plan for how I would “bug out” in an airplane. In many ways, it would be like bugging out in a car, but there are some special considerations.

As a side note, I have prepared a couple binders with all of my emergency plans and provided one copy to my family and left another one at our retreat. This is an excerpt of part of my plan (as I know that their knowing what I have will make them more secure in what I am capable of accomplishing).

Bug Out Airplane (BOA)

There has been a lot of discussion in SurvivalBlog about bug-out vehicles (BOVs) but I’ve only seen a brief article or two on BOAs (Bug Out Airplanes) and all but one of those (that mentioned Cessna 172s) dealt with having a small recreational single seat ultralight for recon and not real long term travel to a retreat.

My scenario is prefaced on using my Cessna 172. The reason I chose the 172 is because it is the most produced aircraft in the world (over 43,000 have been built since 1955). Additionally, its performance is versatile and needs, if fully loaded, not much more than 2,700 feet of runway at 4,000 foot elevation.

I’m presenting my plan in the hopes it inspires others to (1) share their plans, or (2) start a discussion about other considerations as to a BOA.

Appropriateness
Using an airplane in an emergency situation is not always the best idea. In fact, in many situations, such as nuclear war, it may be downright suicidal. However, in the event of an economic collapse, or possible pandemic, it might in fact be the quickest way to get out of Dodge.

There are many considerations that I’ve taken into account and here is a brief outline of my plan.

Planning
These are my general planning concepts:

• Navigation. In the event I need to bug out, I need to begin with the presumption that the total breakdown in society includes the loss of all navigational aids (due to loss of power or other interference). This includes GPS as well as ground based NDBs (non-directional beacons), VORs (VHF omnidirectional range [beacons]), and TACAN (Tactical Air Navigation [beacons]). Thus, in the event of an actual bug out, my starting presumption is that I cannot rely on any air navigation and will have to operate under Visual Flight Rules (VFR). This lack of navigation also includes a loss of FAA services such as radar services. Here it becomes especially important that I adhere to established VFR protocol (specifically altitudes). I ask that if we are in this situation, other pilots have strict adherence to this as well.
• Weather
  Additionally, because there is a complete breakdown in society, I will not have the luxury of any weather information. To compensate for this, I plan to carry extra fuel (see supplies section for further explanation).
• Route Planning
• Altitudes. My plan is to travel at either 7,500 or 8,500 feet depending on my direction. In short, VFR traffic flying easterly should be at odd altitudes plus 500 feet (e.g., 7,500 feet). Westerly bound traffic should be at even altitudes (e.g., 8,500). My rationale is twofold. First, the Cessna’s best performance is based on the airplane flying at 8,000 feet (approximate range is 485 NM +/- wind effect). Second, this altitude is high enough that I shouldn’t be a target for any trigger happy individuals. Third, this should keep me below jet and military traffic. Finally, at 8,000 feet, I should have a 12 NM glide range in the event of an emergency which will give me plenty of time to make decisions and potentially put myself at least a half-a-days hike away from or closer to any location I chose.
• Avoiding Airspaces. I planned my route to avoid two types of airspaces as much as possible: Class B and MOAs. I’m afraid that with Class Bs and MOAs, there might be some jet traffic and in the event things are an uncontrolled free-for-all, I don’t want to play chicken with someone’s private jet.
• Navigation. As discussed above, I anticipate a complete failure for major navigational aids. However, I have identified a few navigational aids near military bases and power stations which, as my thinking goes, could still be active in the event of an emergency to help coordinate government. I’m not going to rely on them but I will first monitor those in the hopes that they can provide some directional assistance. GPS is ultimately controlled by the US Government, so I don’t have a lot of hope that it will be a useful resource in complete government collapse.
• My ultimate tool is going to be Visual Flight Rules (VFR) [piloting] and again, I’ve chosen landmarks in my prepared flight plan which should be easily recognizable (bodies of water, geographic features, large and distinct construction projects, etc…).
• Route. When traveling, I’ll do my best to fly point-to-point, keeping in the considerations listed above. I have scouted a few isolated airstrips and found a few patches of remote roadways where, if necessary, I could put down to refuel or wait out any weather. I’ve marked all of these on old aviation maps and will alter my course slightly, if necessary to keep myself within range of them. There are a lot of nice small airports that are in isolated locations that, with a little looking, can be easy to find.
• Radio. Finally, I’ll monitor appropriate frequencies where appropriate, including 121.5 but not broadcast unless I feel it’s absolutely necessary since I don’t want to give
• Landing. Before I land, I feel it is important to overfly the area I plan to set down to make sure I’m not flying into a danger. I’m also going to make sure that I have enough fuel that if it is not safe or prudent to land, I can abort with a comfortable reserve (preferably 45 minutes). My initial though is that I’ll descend to the desired landing area, overflying and inspect the intended runway and then proceed past it for a while, to not give away my intentions. I’ll then climb to altitude and come in with a simulated engine out (with low power to be as stealth as possible) yet having the ability to add power if needed and climb out.
• Time of Day. I’ve done a reverse line of retreat and figured out what time I need to depart from in order to arrive at the destination before dark [at the wither solstice]. I have, in the emergency book I’ve prepared for my family, directions on how to communicate with me at the airport when I arrive (code using road flares and non-aviation radios) to warn me of any dangers.

Supplies and Other Weight Considerations

• The question of what to load into a Cessna Bug Out Airplane Presents a few unique challenges.
• Any airplane has a weight limit. In this case, my goal is to load 900 lbs of supplies into the airplane (the maximum amount allowed per the POH). There are some weight and balance considerations (see the following weight and balance / loading section for further explanation). This is where your survival planning is really tested because everything needs to be planned out since weight is a major limitation factor.
• Me. Obviously I need to fly the plane. I’m going to assume that I am fully loaded down with clothes (e.g., jacket, boots, hat and gloves) and just ate a full meal (something I would do in the event I decided to bug out to keep my alertness) at 170 lbs.
• Extra Aviation Gas. In the event of TEOTWAWKI, we all can agree that fuel becomes a valuable commodity. Aviation fuels are leaded so they won’t work that in regular cars as regular unleaded gasoline won’t work in airplanes. Thus my assumption becomes that the minute I take off, I’m not getting any more gas beyond what I have.
• My plan is to carry 8 Gerry cans of Aviation Gasoline with me in the cockpit. Each Gerry can weighs about 11 lbs empty and holds 5 gallons of fuel (1 gal of aviation fuel = 6 lbs.). Yes, under normal situations this is downright stupid but after reflecting on this, I feel the risk outweighs the reward and flexibility of having extra gas. My biggest fear is having to divert because of weather and not having enough gas to carry on thereby putting me a worse situation than I started with. These eight cans have a total weight of 320 lbs.
• To minimize my risks, I’ll take advantage of the fact I can open up a window in my airplane and make sure each Gerry can is tightly sealed. If I could find plastic cans, I would obviously switch to those because I’d estimate that they are less than 3 lbs each and that would save me about 40 lbs in weight but I want to plan for something heavier.
• Bug Out Bag. I would take my two best BOBs with me. The first is a backpack containing everything I need to survive for 3 days (including food, water – lifesaver bottle, supplies, and even a primitive shelter). I’d also pack my survival duffel bag (including my shotgun and handgun, 2 week food supply, foul weather gear, warm clothes and basic tools) as well as sleeping bag. Remember, that carrying a firearm on a flight line is a crime and use discretion. Combined, these items weight about 75 lbs.
• Water. I would also take five gallons of water with me (in addition to the water and lifesaver water bottle contained above). Water weights 8.35 lbs per gallon and with the plastic container, I estimate five bottles will be 54 lbs.
• Briefcase. Inside my briefcase I have my laptop computer and aviation charts. On my laptop computer, I have a folder with .pdf files which include instrument approach charts and emergency preparedness/survival materials. I generously estimate this at 10 lbs.
• Ham Radio. I have an amateur radio license and have a small kit packed with my Ham Radio and other communications devices. I have the equipment necessary to hook it up to a 12 volt battery as well. This weighs no more than 25 lbs.
• Generator. I’m sure a lot of you are asking why I plan to take a generator. I have a small 1,000 Watt Honda generator that has served me well for many a football tailgates. I’m not sentimentally attached to it. My reason for taking it is that it comes with a 12V plug adaptor. Since I mentioned that I have accounted in my plans to divert in the event of bad weather, I want to have an auxiliary power source to charge the battery or use it to fire up the engine. The generator (with a full fuel tank), hand fuel pump, and the small tool kit I keep with it have a combined weight of no more than 40 lbs. I also see it having significant barter value. If I make a land stop I can use the generator to help recharge my laptop batteries or power my Ham Radio set.
  

Total Weight
I estimate my total weight will be just about 950 lbs. I know this is probably slightly above the upper limits of the airplane but I anticipate burning off some fuel during taxi and run-up and am at an airport where I can afford to climb out very slowing. Further, the airport sits in a temperate climate (50-70’s) near a body of water where there is frequently a headwind. I have no major obstacles preventing me from climbing out. If weight is too much (and I’ll probably feel it during my first take off attempt), I can always jettison a fuel can or two but would prefer to have the ability to completely refuel the airplane one.

Other Considerations

Finally, I have a couple cargo nets and tie down kit and will secure everything before departure. Since I’ll be using the front seat, I don’t want cargo to shift and contact the flight controls. I’ve done the math in my head and given how long it takes me, I estimate that within two hours of making the decision, I can leave. I know that two hours may be a long time, but I’d rather spend two hours prepping than be stuck in traffic for two hours and run out of gas or be exposed to a mob.

Weight and Balance / Loading

This is the tricky part because you have to pack things in just right so the weight and balance are within limits. My plan is to remove all of the seats except the pilot's to give me extra space and weight.

Here is a rough draft of my sample packing list a weight calculations:

Arm [aka station or centroid]: 46.78149

Final Thoughts
As I mentioned before, I can drive to my destination but that may not be the most prudent move. The preceding sketch is the start of a plan.

This article has nothing to do with any special properties of the number ten, but rather refers to a progressive planning method based on the size of a problem. This is a way to organize thinking and planning for chaotic situations.  

“If you fail to plan, you’ve planned to fail”.   It would be irresponsible to present any particular plan as suitable for everyone, however, these are some guidelines on how and why you should develop your own plans.  Why do I have the nerve to write this piece?   I’ve been in the middle of more than one “adventure”… and in only one of them did I have any preplanned resources.  I’ve been thinking and planning about survival issues for decades.

SHTF or TEOTWAWKI can mean different things at different times.  While many web sites focus on total breakdowns, the fact is that for any given person walking across the street without looking both ways and being killed by a truck, it’s the same as the whole planet getting smacked by a 50 mile wide asteroid.  The focus of the “Power of Ten” is based on the premise that almost everyone has sudden small emergencies. Preparation for small emergencies as a part of a larger overall plan is a useful approach, because a small one day emergency can stretch out to many days.  Those who are prepared have the chance at survival    

Consider some small emergencies: Imagine losing electric power for four hours. Depending on individual circumstances, this can be an annoyance, up to a catastrophe. Suppose power goes out for four days. Again, depending on weather and climate, this can become a much bigger problem.  My daughter and her husband live in deep New England. Last winter their power went out for days.   No heat, frozen pipes - and even though they were able to get a generator, they had to spend a good bit of time on the phone with me to figure out how to connect it. Do you have a generator? Do you know how to safely hook it up? Do you know why it might not be a good idea to power up your whole house and light it like a Christmas tree? Do you know how to hook up even a small generator to keep just your vital services going?  Will your existing plan for a SHTF situation have any elements in it to help if the power goes out during a 2 day ice storm?

Enough examples, so let’s get to the point.

Every one needs a plan, a realistic plan.  If the plan isn’t written down and everyone who is to participate in that plan does not understand it and their clearly defined roles in the plan, then you don’t have a plan!  The facts are that, “No plan survives its first touch with reality” and “You can’t plan for everything”.  But you can -and must- start to plan with everyone in your household included.

No plan can cover all eventualities when first written, or ever for that matter.  GOOD plans are written to reflect one’s understanding of what they are trying to accomplish with what resources they have at any one time.  GOOD plans are read, reviewed and revised as necessary.  The best plans cover a range of problems.  They contain bits and pieces that help with small, large and huge problems and for scenarios never anticipated. Hence the title of this piece.

Here is where the “power of 10” can help you to get organized. Plan for… 1 day, 10 days, 100 days, 1,000 days….(and gulp)…10,000 days.  You cannot get to day 10 if you don’t survive day 1 and not to day 100 unless you survive day 10.

I am a firm believer in modular planning,  The plan to survive 10,000 days (Yes, 27+ years) is made of elements that one uses to survive 1, 10 and 100 days... after all, on Day 1, there isn’t going to be an announcement saying.. “This event will be over in…” that you can believe anyway!   I believe that it is totally foolish to start one’s planning with “How am I going to survive a total collapse”.   Start with a 1 day plan for each season and for different events, then work towards the 10 day plan, again for each season and for different events. Doing this will help you build that 1,000 or 10,000 day plan more effectively.  You should already have handy what you need for the “one day plan”, if not, get it, then work towards the 10 day plan. When you have that plan written and reviewed, it’s time to start implementing.  Buy what you need and set it aside so it can be used.  Talk to the whole family about the plan.  Include everyone – kids, old folks, and don’t overlook pets.

As an example, I live in a coastal community on the eastern seaboard.  My one day plans are one set of plans, my 10 day plans another…and my 10 day plan will vary depending on what I’m planning for.  A winter ice storm that kills power is one plan, and evacuating in the event of a hurricane, quite another.  Folks talk about are they going to be “Bugging In” or “Bugging Out”.  When asked which you will do, the only correct answer should be, “It Depends!”  You need to be ready for the unexpected.  How do you do that?   Think independence, dependence on nothing other than what you have in hand. When talking to a friend about this essay, they said, “One day plan, who needs one?”.  Who?  Me, you, everyone!  I’ve been traveling worldwide for business on and off since the days of the Boeing 707s.  My rule after my first flight:  always have in hand what you need for at least 24 hours without outside help when you leave for the airport. More than once over the years, this policy has made my life immensely easier and more comfortable. Additionally, planning and acting on a day to day basis for emergencies, instantiates a “survival mentality” that realistically, we need to be in constantly.  Most often, emergencies do not come with warnings ahead of time.

I firmly believe that the minimum plan one should have thought through, written out, and implemented is the 10 day plan… for both “bug-in” and “bugout”.  And on the subject of “bugging out”: One needs to have different destinations for different scenarios.  There are a pair or scenarios that I’ve planned for where we bug out to my brother’s home well north of me and a scenario where he comes here.

As to getting from here to there… as mentioned above I live in a coastal community.  On summer weekends, 90 min trips from “the city” can take four hours in good weather.  If it got to be “bugout” time for us, the last piece of road I’ll be driving on will be the local superhighway. I’m sure if most of you think about it, that nice bit of superhighway that’s your first thought for any trip won’t be viable.    Plan your routes, and your secondary route and if you are fortunate enough… a third route. Try not to depend on the Interstates.  Don’t plan to use that great GPS navigation box in your car.  The GPS system is managed by the government.  It can and has been shut down in the past by the government when they thought they had a need.  Get good paper maps. Mark routes.  As to the Interstates, the legislation that funded them states that the Government can restrict use of the Interstates to military use only as needed.

Okay… you should work towards having plans as follows:

1 and 10 Day:

This does not mean that you need 24 plans… In your individual situation, you probably will only need 2 or 3 bug-in and bug out plans that you can use/reuse/equip/stock as modules.  And for all bugout scenarios, plan what you will do if you end up on foot.

Beyond 10 days to 100 days and beyond…

Now things get more difficult.  You can stock up on 6 months or a year of “survival food” which may work out, if you and that food all get to be in the same place. Is your Bug-Out Vehicle a diesel powered International Harvester all-wheel drive 26 foot truck?  How about stocking six months or a year of required medications?  Or six months or a year's worth of fuel?

Frankly, somewhere between 10 and 100 days is where the (first) big crunch will happen. I’ve heard some say… “Oh, I’ve got my retreat in western “Pennsyltucky” all stocked up!” Yes, you can do that, and that could be your plan, however, I suggest that if all you are going to do is move your kith and kin to a isolated place in the “wherever”, and sit on and eat off your stockpile without having any skills related to the current situation to contribute to the community, you will become a foraging opportunity.  Plan on bringing “value” to whatever community you will be moving into (i.e., hedge fund managers without any other skills, need not apply).  No matter what you bring or have stockpiled, if you don’t have useful skills to bring to the community appropriate to the situation, you will just become a burden to that infrastructure -which is likely to need help not an additional burden.  BTW, being a good shot and well armed is necessary, but not sufficient in my context.

I don’t have any guidelines to share for these very long range plans other than the speculation that beyond 100 days, either our military will be moving in and trying to bring order, or… someone else’s military will (barring an extinction event asteroid),   as one of our “creditors” may decide to “foreclose” to “protect their interests”, or for “humanitarian interests” .   When the military moves in, I suspect that those whose plans started with:  “ my 12 gauge, my AK and my 9mm and 1,000 rounds for each” and ended with a backpack or pickup truck full of food and a plan to high tail it into the woods somewhere, will either be waiting for a burial detail to get to them, or run the risk of being hunted like vermin.

To sum it up…Create a written plan.  Address specific scenarios. (note plural).  Review and discuss plans with those who will be included in them. Change (improve) them as events and resources will allow.  Plans need to be practiced.  Plans should include action/role sheets for everyone, especially for an emergency bugout.  As a small example: last week, my wife and I went to the local range.  I very much wanted to bring my spotting scope as we were firing an iron sighted 22 LR bolt action rifle among other things and I needed it to see shots in the black at 25 yards.  When we unloaded at the range, no spotting scope!   I’d left it home.

Your plans, or even the existence of them, probably should not be topics of conversations at back yard barbeques as there is always at least one “opportunist” at one.  Get to know your neighbors, to see if they could be depended on for mutual aid. You don’t have to like them, but you may need to trust them.  That crusty grump up the street may very well have skills and experience that could be handy.  Running off into the sunset, or the hills, or turning your home/farm/retreat in the boonies into an armed bunker is not a plan… it’s the survivalist fairy tale.  Only those who plan are the ones who may have the chance to live happily ever after.

The History Channel recently aired a docudrama that was interspersed with interviews of subject matter experts, titled After Armageddon. The show was previously mentioned here in SurvivalBlog, but I just recently got the chance to watch all of it. It portrayed a fictional family making some horrible mistakes, in the midst of a major pandemic. I assume that these mistakes were written into the script to increase the quotient for drama. (At least I hope so!) They certainly illustrated the peril of attempting to hunker down in a city with insufficient supplies. They should have "bugged out" weeks sooner!

I thought that overall the experts that the producers interviewed did a good job. Four of the most knowledgeable and articulate were of course names that you will recognize from SurvivalBlog: Kathy Harrison (author of the book "Just in Case" and a great blog), Kevin Reeve (a principal of onPoint Tactical), Michael Bane (host of DownRange TV), and Dr. Joseph Tainter. The latter is the author of the book "The Collapse of Complex Societies". Although Tainter is not a blog content contributor, I've mentioned his work several times before in SurvivalBlog.

Despite its numerous flaws, I found that the show was still worth watching. In fact, there is often value in learning from the mistakes made by others. I just hope that some of the newbies watching this show can distinguish between the good and bad decisions that are depicted.

Hi Jim,
I just wanted to share a quick storage tip and a bugout time saver. I'm currently in a condominium but still working on my preps and keeping my stuff bugout ready. One of the issues I've overcome is the need to keep my bugout ready but out of the way. In my condo building we actually have storage areas in the basement (fenced off partitions with personal locks) so that is where 90% of my preps stay. In order to keep these preps bugout ready I've organized them into Rubbermaid [lidded storage] tubs that I stack about four high and two wide on top of a furniture moving dolly so that I can roll them in and out if I need to access storage behind them. These can also be used if I need to bugout I'm just rolling a furniture dolly out to my bugout vehicle and loading up. Even if some of your readers don't have a storage issue I strongly recommend the furniture dollies for quickly moving their preps because they can stay dedicated to a particular stack of preps. Thus, when time counts during bugout you don't have to load a hand cart several times. Thanks for your site! - Ben in Tennessee

Having spent a lot of years on military planning staffs, I can't help war-gaming scenarios. In short (as you know well) Course of Action (COA) development is a big part of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and is a fairly reliable way of looking at possibilities and choosing likely sequels, given scenarios. In effect, a way of war-gaming out the future. There are a number of horror scenarios that seem to me to be fairly probable and they keep going around and around in my head as I try to sequence them and assign probabilities to each one. I am haunted by the possible future, an occupational hazard for a professional planner. I sincerely hope our civilization outlives me because it's failure could be truly horrible.

I agree completely with you on relocation to safer areas and stocking a remote retreat in the hinter-boonies. That's the optimum solution and in worst case situations, it's really the only solution likely to work long term. Any of your readers stuck in less than optimum situations are going to make a valiant effort to survive, but their odds are not as good. I am one of these folks. I worry about the golden hoard more than anything else. I would like to pass on some thoughts on the subject of what the unwashed masses will be doing after TEOTWAWKI. I am only guessing, but my guesses are made using history as a template. If anyone disagrees with my analysis, I would love to hear about it.

What about those totally unprepared? What are they going to do? There are many survival strategies open to the unwashed masses other than sitting down and starving to death. We all need to compare our own plans with these other strategies because I guarantee some of these strategies will be used by the teeming masses. When the power grid drops and the food shipments end, the average citizen is going to get a huge shot of reality. Guessing what they are going to do WTSHTF is central to all other survival planning, especially in the Eastern US or Europe.

ASSUMPTIONS:
I am talking here about a total collapse situation, not a slow slide decline or regional disruption. You can pick your own favorite cause from an EMP event to a finance system failure. They all cause roughly the same sequence of events. The results of any catastrophic collapse could easily be worse than any fiction you have ever read. The worst case scenarios all result in disruption of services and quick spiral into anarchy, but leave most of the population alive and hungry. This is the stuff of nightmares.

To recap our unprecedented bad situation: The vast majority of people live in urban or suburban areas near large population centers. They are poorly prepared for any emergency and completely unable to live self sufficiently. The food production systems that currently supply their food are fragile and subject to catastrophic failure. Most people's very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile. (There are many dependencies, but I see these as the three key points of failure.)

Most people currently live shoulder to shoulder in unthinkable crowding. Once the triad of services breaks down, the vast majority of people will suddenly be living on a very limited amount of capital in the form of the tiny amount of consumables on hand in each city. Once the Evian is gone and the toilets don't work, they will have no way to get drinking water or even dispose of their own sewage. They are literally less than a week away from serious acute hunger.

This situation will not get better unless the government is able to restore critical systems very quickly. The odds of restoring order get worse the longer the crisis lasts as the teeming masses start migrating and civil order disintegrates. Assuming the government fails, the countryside cannot feed the population of the USA without modern fuel, finance, power and distribution systems in place. Using 19th century techniques (where that is possible), the farmland in the USA cannot begin to feed everyone. (Europe has the same problem). In short, people are living where there will be no resources and farmland (and farmers) will be overtaxed just to support locals. We don't have the capital goods (horses, tack, hand plows, tools, seeds etc ) or skills to go back to old farming methods quickly. The math points to a die-off larger than anything recorded in history. Did I miss any main points?

People are not going to starve to death quietly. They never do unless there is a government to enforce it. Every last one of them is going to try something to survive or even just hang on one more day. Humans are survivors. They are intelligent, ruthless and deadly omnivores. We use the terms "sheeple", or "Joe Six-pack" pretty flippantly, but even the most stupid human is very dangerous and many of the "sheeple" are not stupid or incompetent. They are, in fact, the most dangerous predators on earth. You are much better off surrounded by hungry tigers than hungry humans. On the other hand, these are real people that used to be your neighbors, mothers, fathers, daughters. When you look them in the face it's going to be very hard to pull a trigger.

AVAILABLE STRATEGIES:
This is not an all inclusive list. People are going to try all of these concurrently. I expect to see a general sequence of strategy choices, but it's not iron clad. While you would expect it much later in the crisis, you might run into a professional army on day one! The interplay of each strategy with the others is also hard to predict. People are going to try other things too (That I haven't thought of). Local variables will effect how each strategy plays out and what events are likely to occur. The interplay of all these activities is where my analysis breaks down in complexity. You have to evaluate them with local variables, so generalizations can only go so far. I believe people will try all of these strategies. Some of them will work, but most of them will fail. There are only so many resources.

1. Begging/bartering. This is probably the first strategy you will encounter. Begging will go on until the very end. This strategy is open to everyone. It will work better for weak individuals, but ultimately, charity is going to dry up as resources get tighter. The vast majority of people who depend solely on begging will ultimately starve to death. (Unfortunately, most people will beg, barter, steal and kill, in that order. Even a single mother may cut your throat to save her children.)

PLANNING NOTE: In a total meltdown, the numbers will crush you if you let them. You have stored a finite amount of food, but there is an almost infinite number of beggars out there. Can you turn away a family with children who only want a bite to eat? You better think this out carefully and steel yourself for whatever you decide to do. If you give too many of your supplies away you will starve. If you turn everyone away, you may feel really bad. Think about it. How are your wife and kids going to react to begging? Watching a die-off is going to be tragic.

a. Bartering services. This could be prostitution or offering to act as security guard. This is actually a viable strategy for anyone with end-of-the-world useful skills. Find someone (or preferably a community) with food and sell yourself. If you have military training and equipment or specific skills, this could work. I don't expect all the doctors to starve.

b. Bartering goods. Rich people may try to buy basic supplies at scalper's prices. You might get a great deal on a Rolex or Mercedes.

2. Stealing/looting. This is a no-brainer once law enforcement breaks down. Even while there is some order, people are going to steal anything they can get their hands on, even at the risk of being hurt or killed. If we drop into anarchy, expect crowds of hungry people or "professional rioters" to sweep the city streets. As the public-access shops and warehouses begin to empty, crowds may move into residential areas for a while, but I don't expect this to last long. Big crowds will probably disband completely when resources become more scarce or they have to travel further to get to them. A warehouse of food or shopping center near the inner city may support this behavior, but a suburban neighborhood 10 miles away won't. Residential areas within cities may be in serious peril. The closer you are to densely populated areas and/or poor areas, the more peril you face. Once the big flash-crowds disappear or people start to forage in the suburbs,
small groups will splinter off and begin raiding (see item #5 below).

There will also be a lot of solitary (or small groups) burglars and sneak-thieves. If you keep chickens in your yard, watch your neighbors closely. If you plan to go to work and leave your house empty, it may be looted while you are away. Gasoline tanks without locks will be prime targets for night visitors. Suburban gardens are prime targets. This applies to slow-slide declines too.

Beggars can turn into looters quickly if nobody is watching. If nobody answers a door, they may try to break a window. The suburbs may be swamped with beggar/looters. As they get more desperate, looters will get bolder and more dangerous. The further out of town you live the safer you will be from this group. Of course, the more isolated you are, the more vulnerable you are to raiders.

3. Some people will sit tight and wait for things to somehow return to normal. Most people who have food and other resources will try to live on them and wait it out. If they stay in small family groups, they will be easy prey for mobs or raiders. Still, I expect most urbanites will do this until they are almost out of resources...then they will join the beggars and looters. This group will grow smaller every day and swell the numbers of looters.

4. Banding. Almost all people will band together for mutual protection and support. How well this works depends on many factors, but ultimately the only safety anywhere will be provided by numbers. Single survivors will get swallowed up quickly.

a. Banding by family unit. This is the basic family group and will be the the first and most common grouping. These groups are small in size but very cohesive. Most families will quickly band with other families into larger groups. The ones who don't will be easy prey.

b. Banding by geography. Neighborhoods will try to form bands for mutual protection. Neighborhoods will try to do this, but historically, this is often not very effective, especially if the distance between neighbors is large. Sharing of resources within neighborhood bands is spotty and as individuals run low, they tend to leave. Rural neighborhood watches are doomed by small numbers, and urban neighborhood watches are doomed from having too many people.

Populations of small towns will band together to put up road-blocks and keep from being overwhelmed. This is the only way most small communities will be able to survive, even if they are capable of supporting themselves by farming. Unless they band effectively and very quickly, they are doomed to be overrun by refugees or raiders. Even the communities who quickly band together may get soft hearted and let in too many people to support. I think pitiful refugees are more dangerous than raiders. It's a rare American who can watch genuine suffering and not try to help. This is especially dangerous if it looks as though the situation could improve and things go back to normal. If there is hope of getting help from outside the community, most people are inclined to save as many others as possible. I feel that this issue will doom many small communities.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If your plans include banding with a farming community, you must take steps immediately to close off the flow of refugees into the area. Convincing others to take steps this drastic will be hard or even impossible, especially early in a crisis. Closing your community and isolating it may very well be impossible. If it is, you are at the mercy of fate and geography. You had better have a plan-b.

c. Banding by profession. Cops, medical workers, emergency workers, soldiers, and perhaps factory workers may band with co-workers. You will especially see this behavior with professional military groups. Beware of military installations in a total breakdown! You have a lot of very young, very scared and highly trained young men with no families there. It might get very dangerous to be near a military town if the government totally disappears. (In a slow slide disaster or regional disaster Army Towns are perhaps the safest places to be, but once the chain of command disappears, watch out.)

d. Banding by religion. This is perhaps the easiest, most effective band to join, since the churches already congregate groups of like-minded people within a small area. Religious bands will probably be the basis for "small community group banding" and are usually the strongest bands possible to form on short notice. All the church groups in an area or a town will likely band together and put on the mantle of "local government". I anticipate local churches forming the backbone of most local governments. They will be equipped with arm bands and represent "legitimate" government when they come to loot your supplies. Joining one of these bands will be a good survival strategy for many people, but in a total collapse, they are very likely to keep as many people alive as possible until they run out of resources and then starve together. Expect to see local polities formed from church groups going to war as resources get scarce. They will go
after both looters and hoarders. Fascism in America will probably arrive carrying a cross.

e. Banding by racial or ethnic group. You will see racially or ethnically pure groups in some regions. This could be very important factor in places like Los Angeles or New York almost immediately and may take precedence over geography or religion. It's an ugly thought, but being the wrong color may be a death sentence some places. (Ironically, I don't expect any serious racial tension in the deep South.)

f. Banding by gang or club affiliation. Not only urban gangs and bikers, but also gun-clubs, country clubs, and survival groups fall into this category. Some clubs will obviously not band effectively in an emergency (like a yacht club for instance), but you can bet the Aryan Brotherhood will cleave together like real brothers. Your survival group, can form a strong group if you have like minds and have clear plans for how to band, where to meet etc.

(PLANNING NOTE: Unfortunately, you are very unlikely to be able to form a survival group large enough to defend yourselves. You may have more success joining your survival group with a local church group or community group or some other band to increase your numbers. The only way you will be able to do that is to store enough food. Plan this out carefully. How big is your optimum band size and how will you feed everyone? Remember, you can use the same tactics other groups will use....like confiscation of warehouses, if your numbers are large enough and you are quick enough. But, If your ultimate size gets too large it will become unwieldy and impossible to control or feed. This is a conundrum you need to give some thought to now.)

Consider this topic well because your group belief system will vary depending on how you form the group and who you let in. A church group will have to use different tactics than a biker club or a neighborhood watch. This will limit or shape your options and set the tone of everything you do. No church group is going to seriously consider cannibalism, for instance.

5. Raiding/Banditry. Raider bands are going to spring up everywhere. Some will start as low level looters and graduate into larger scale violence. Some, however will start out as systematic raiders. There are some very bad perpetrators out there and there will be even more once the prisons empty. In the short term, violence will be very lucrative.

Raiders will take casualties over time. They will also replenish their numbers somewhat, but fortunately these are mostly anti-social types and may have trouble integrating new members. The further you are from them at the start, the safer you will be, but they can hit you anywhere, anytime. I don't see a good solution for this other than sheer numbers or good OPSEC. They won't attack an obviously hard target. and of course, they can't attack what they don't know about. They have to win to stay in business, so they won't attack unless they feel they can win. Distance will spread out the number of groups and allow other survivors to thin their numbers in numerous gun battles. True raiders may not last long, but they are going to be a real problem in the short term.

I expect raiding to take two main forms. The roadside ambush and the home invasion. Home invasions are always dangerous and often brutal. If the raiders attack your home, they will try to take you by surprise and kill every combatant in the house before anyone can react. They will force every more at a very fast pace to prevent you from reacting. They may use some kind of distraction or disguise to gain surprise. Home invasion, carried out with professionalism and gusto is fairly
safe and easier than you would think. Expect to see some of them wearing body armor, dressed in police uniforms and carrying
badges. (Some of them will have professional entry training...like SWAT and military). Failing at a stack entry, they may use CS gas to drive out the occupants. Failing that, they will use fire.

Waylaying travelers on the roads is very easy and safe. Cars are just too vulnerable to gunfire. The roads outside small communities could be very dangerous to travel.

Don't ever underestimate the vile depravity of human beings. Anarchy is the dirtiest word in the English language. Rape and torture may be common. I believe as food gets harder to find, many people will turn to cannibalism to sustain themselves. (I wish this were not true, but historically, it's very common.) I am not advocating cannibalism in any way, but In all fairness, cannibalism can greatly extend a group's supply base. There are a whole lot of people out there and people are made of meat. While easy targets are available, some groups may prosper for some months eating human flesh. It could be a fairly successful strategy for some groups. Beware. History of other collapses warns us that this may be common.

A longer term problem you should watch for is what I call "part time raiders". Historically, most raids have been conducted by young men in one community raiding a nearby community. This phenomenon won't happen overnight in most places but it will probably happen eventually unless somebody forms a central authority within a year or two.

6. Extortion. Outlaw bands will give way to professional armies in some places. Possibly with a core of military trained personnel, a hundred or more killers traveling together can extort more than smaller groups can steal. These groups will get larger as time goes by but they are doomed unless they can take over someone else s farmland and extort "taxes". You may see groups like this move in to agricultural areas and set up shadow governments, taxing all the farmers nearby...or selling protection. Anyone who doesn't play ball will be burned out. Expect them to use classic tactics like assassination, kidnapping, and terrorism to cow the locals. Local governments are going to probably hire many thugs and enforcers too. Telling the good guys from the bad guys might get difficult. Anyone trying to take your food is probably a bad guy, but it might be worth your while to pay him off.

7. Hiding. Some people are going to try to hide from the die-off.
Hiding inside a city or suburbs (in my opinion) is not going to work. People are going to systematically search every building for food. You could conceivably scare off or outfight wave after wave of looters and finally be looted by a local government or burned out by a large gang or rioters. The fact that you are living there will be impossible to hide when they try to search your building, If you are there, you will eventually have to fight or surrender your supplies. Hiding in the suburbs is just not possible and staying in an apartment building (even if you band with the other occupants for mutual protection) will eventually get you killed.

Hiding in a rural area is possible, just because of the distances involved. The number of hungry mouths will be less in the country, but local citizens are still going to confiscate your "Hoarded" food if they need it. Your best hiding place is in an area that will be defended by well-fed people. (but if you have a well-fed community defending you, you should really help them defend it, don't you think?)

The second best hiding place is a wilderness area with no roads or natural resources that someone will want. A wilderness hide site takes a lot of skills to pull off. Also, it is not sustainable without some planning and a lot of discipline. Essentially, this is hunkering down in a remote place and eating supplies you brought with you while you wait patiently for the teeming masses to die off. Living quietly in the wilderness, mostly underground is a hard way to live, especially in bad weather, but it could be your best chance to miss the die-off if you are healthy and have a solid set of outdoor tactical skills.

8. Bug out (presumably to a safe place).
This is going to be very popular, even for people who have no place to go. Once the power is off and the sewage starts backing up, the cities are going to start losing people. The exodus may begin immediately or be delayed several days (depending on the scenario). Either way, the refugees will generally try to leave in family groups. They will mostly follow interstates, highways, state roads, and farm roads, in that order. Nobody (almost nobody) is going to just start walking in a random direction and go cross country. They will drive until they have to walk and try to re-supply along the way.

While there is order, the roads may be jammed with cars leaving the cities going nowhere. In practice, almost everyone is going to be driving out of the city with a definite destination in mind. Some relative, some small town they know of, etc. Most of these destinations are going to be just as bad as the ones they just left, but these will be desperate people. Many of them are going to seriously overestimate their vehicle range. (Traffic jams eat a lot of fuel, probably more than most people will plan for).

Most of those thousands of cars on the interstate are going to run out of gasoline in a matter of hours and wherever they finally run out, that's where the occupants are going to start walking. Of course most of them are going to pull off the highways and interstates just before they run out and mob every town along the highway. (This is a historic fact, proven by every hurricane evacuation we have ever attempted). I expect people to turn very nasty when they run out of fuel. When they cannot buy fuel or food, the towns along America's highways will be filled with armed, hungry desperate people who may kill for a gallon of gas or a drink of water. Sound like fantasy? Don't bet on it. It's happened even during regional crisis with help on the way. In a general meltdown, I expect lots of violence in small towns and strip communities along highways and especially interstates.

There may be long columns of desperate refugees walking the interstates, but I don't foresee this. Most people will congregate in towns along the route. It's difficult to predict what desperate people will do without knowing local variables. If there is a hopeful destination within perceived walking distance, I would expect a lot of foot traffic. Of course, there will be a large number of breakdowns, but probably no mass migrations on foot unless they are being chased by something like a fire or chemical spill etc.

PLANNING NOTE: If you wait too long to G.O.O.D. you won't make it. I believe G.O.O.D. movement of any kind is going to be very dangerous. Moving vehicles are just too vulnerable, and there are going to be a lot of desperate, armed people stranded on the roads. This specifically includes law enforcement. They are not going to let you drive by with a load of gas cans in the back when their patrol car is sitting empty. Get out early or don't try it.

9. Going on with your life and ignoring the crisis.
I think this will be a very popular early response. Some people will still try to make it to work, just like they always have. Until the crisis really gets bad, you will probably see shopkeepers, lawyers, bankers etc trying to commute to work. I really hope the police and firemen do this for as long as possible--and garbage collectors and power workers too! In fact, this is probably our best defense against a general melt-down. If everyone would stay calm and keep trying to make the system work, our society could survive almost anything. (I am betting on the exact opposite).

10. LaMOE (LAst Man On Earth) of the wilderness.
Some people will grab their outdoors gear and head for the woods planning to live out of a rucksack and forage or hunt for their food. I include fishermen in this category. I expect the wilderness areas to be absolutely stiff with "sportsmen" who are going to try to camp their way out of trouble. Maybe not, but I have heard a lot of people talk about it. This is a losing proposition, but that's not obvious to everyone.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If you attempt to hide in a wilderness location, you are going to have to avoid these knuckleheads. Choose your hide site well.

11. Throw yourself on the mercy of the government.
Another VERY popular option. America has become the land of the entitlement. This generation seems to believe the government is there to take care of them from cradle to grave. I expect lots of folks to gather around anything even remotely resembling government. This will only last while government offices are open, but it might allow formation of groups or bands that will later loot and burn the city.

12. Go nuts and start burning everything in sight. It's happened before and will probably happen again. For some reason, arson seems to be some kind of release mechanism for unstable personalities. These folks are yet another reason to avoid urban areas. They won't last long, but they can cause a lot of damage in the short term.

13. Something else. This is only a partial list of all the possible strategies people will use. If you can think of something, expect someone to try it. Look at your local variables and think about it.

EXPECTED SEQUENCE:
Tricky, but in general terms, I expect urbanites to hang onto their city as long as supplies hold out and then attempt a bug-out. Some, of course, are going to bug out almost immediately. Some will never bug out.

Most people are going to sit tight until they get hungry and then either attempt a bug-out or try to barter/beg/or loot food.
Looters will start looting as soon as they can get away with it. Their numbers will be fairly small in the beginning, but will grow as more people get hungry. They will continue until there is nothing to loot...then they will have to change strategies. The next strategy up the scale is raiding.

Most people will never make that transition to violence, but I estimate up to 5% of the total population will easily make that transition and another 10% are capable of doing it if they have more time to get used to the idea (and get hungry). These numbers are not really supportable historically, but I feel that they are very close to reality...just personal opinion. If I am right, that means even a city of 100,000 people could produce 5,000 potential murderers in a few days. That's a lot of bad guys.

Raiders, bandits and bad guys are going to prey on the weak until somebody establishes order or they run out of easy targets. This order will probably be in the form of locally formed polities (local governments and committees, neighborhood watches, and church groups.) Once we reestablish real order, most remaining raiders are going to try to change strategies. Some of them may join your church.

Unfortunately, the horrible die-off will encompass multiple years. It won't end until local communities reach equilibrium and produce as much food as they consume. That could easily take more than two years. (The first harvest after a major crisis is going to be a disappointing time for some communities.) Some of the starving polities (probably after the first harvest) may choose war over starvation and attack neighbors. Sounds really grim, but I call em like I see em.

Livestock mortality the first two years is going to be astronomical. People are going to have to literally allow other humans to die while they feed livestock. Also, they are going to be very valuable commodities and prone to theft.

Wildlife and fish mortality will also be very high. Everybody who sees a deer will attempt to kill it. After a year or two, I expect deer, bear and wild hogs to be nearly extinct in the Eastern US. Small game will also suffer huge losses to poaching and so will fish.

SO, WHAT STRATEGY DO I PLAN TO USE?
I live in a nice suburban neighborhood of a small town within 45 minutes of a large urban area. The area surrounding us is a poor rural agricultural area in Southern Georgia. My town is near a secondary line of drift from Savannah. Not the worst place to live, but not good either. In a slow slide scenario, I will stay in place, participate in the neighborhood watch and go to work every day. I even have plans to set up a soup kitchen, field bakery and water purification plant at a local church if needed. My plan is to make myself valuable to the community. If things get really bad, I have the ability to arm up to 6 others. I have enough spare stored food, equipment and weapons to do this and still be postured for plan-B.

Plan-B. In the event of a TEOTWAWKI I intend to use several options. I intend to Bug out with a truck-load of supplies to a pre-selected wilderness area (within 15 minute ride of home), establish a hide site and wait out the carnage. (I have about seven months supplies for my family plus a couple of caches with extra food and weapons nearby for a total of roughly nine months of rough living. I believe our odds of remaining unnoticed for six or more months are very good while maintaining a fairly high standard of living. (Living this close to Savannah, this is the best plan I could come up with).

Why hide out? first, I have the skills, equipment and a good area. But mostly, I know myself. Having seen real hunger in Africa and the Balkans, I don't believe I have the emotional hardness to watch people suffer and die without joining them by trying to help. Hiding out and missing the die-off will be hard, but watching it happen (for me) is just impossible. I can't watch.

When things cool down, I will scout the area and attempt to barter my skills to local farmers or whoever is in power. (I have acquired quite a few barterable skills over the years). So, if I show up at your retreat door six months after a collapse looking for work: don't shoot! It's just me! - JIR

Mr. Jim,
You perfectly encapsulated a modification I just did to the kit I carry in my vehicle. While I knew better, it still took reading "One Second After" to set me thinking: How do I get home if the car dies? Your reference: "My personal circumstances are unusual, since I live at my retreat year-round. So the gear that I keep in my vehicle is more of a "Get Me Back Home Kit" rather than a "Get Out of Dodge Kit" is perfect.

I have carried a pretty decent vehicle breakdown kit for some time, but I did so in a document box. It then occurred to me: You will have to walk, dummy. So I bought a cheap, "Remington" brand backpack from Wal-Mart, and everything got transferred. It's not "Military" looking, in keeping with ominous rumblings about that stuff in various "Memos," but rugged enough to get me home.

Excellent way to encapsulate that notion. That's how I will start referring to it as with students and family. Thanks, - Jim B2

Sir,
Thank you again for your excellent blog. You are definitely saving lives and saving dollars.

When our Nissan expired, we had a long discussion about what to buy for our general use/SHTF vehicle. The criteria we settled on were:

• Size – The vehicle must be big enough for the entire family, plus guests (we made a mistake here, by not accounting for two college student siblings, who recently moved back to the area), plus cargo.
• Engine – Diesel is preferable to gasoline or propane for a number of reasons in every area except for availability of parts and costs of repairs. For diesels, pre-2007 is a requirement (for bio-diesel compatibility). For all engine types (with the possible exception of hybrids), older is generally better. Buy used.
• Chassis – The question here is balancing fuel efficiency (which translates to range) vs. pulling power. Performance requirements vary based on your location. Ideally you should buy the smallest size available that will meet your hauling and performance requirements, maximizing your fuel efficiency. This also will reduce your final costs. A trailer hitch is a must, even for smaller cars, but can be added after-market for little cost.
• Reliability – Reliability is a must. Do your research before you buy.
• Cost – Don’t take on debt buying more than you need. Forego leather seats and satellite radio to stock up on spare parts and mechanic's classes. A lower cost vehicle also lets you practice doing all the regular maintenance yourself without fear of putting yourself $20,000 in the hole.

I rarely see it mentioned, but for many people, it’s worth considering cargo vans. You can pick them up on the cheap, well-maintained, with plenty of cargo space. The downside is poor off-road performance, but this isn't as much a concern for people near or in the cities, and can be addressed separately.

Do research on alternative fuels for your vehicle. Diesels can draw on a number of fuel sources, most especially bio-diesel. Many gasoline engines can accept ethanol. But both require production, which is difficult to impossible without the proper equipment and knowledge. Figuring out how to fuel your generator when your tank has run dry is going to be a painful lesson in preparation.

Our thoughts and prayers are with you and yours. - Dieselman

James,
I have been reading a lot of the archive items and I have noticed a few times where you went on a trip etc, we have had a few nieces and nephews born this year and when I travel 3 to 4 hours from home I don’t feel as secure as when I am close to my home and supplies so when you venture out for a few days the questions that pop into my mind are:

• What kind of vehicle do you travel long distances in?
• What supplies do you stock in it?
• What are some things we could keep in mind as we travel away from our homes for short periods?

I tried to search for these answers, so forgive me if you have already covered it and I missed it. Thanks, - Larry M.

JWR Replies: Vehicle and gear selection have been discussed in SurvivalBlog since 2005, but not much in the past year, so this subject is worth re-visiting.

A "Get Out of Dodge" vehicle need not be large, if you've planned ahead and pre-positioned the majority of your gear and grub at your retreat.

My personal circumstances are unusual, since I live at my retreat year-round. So the gear that I keep in my vehicle is more of a "Get Me Back Home Kit" rather than a "Get Out of Dodge Kit". And since I live in a remote and lightly populated region that is mostly public lands, many of my readiness items I carry are for severe weather, fallen trees, or off-road driving mishaps. So, for example, I regularly carry a parka, Wiggy's brand FTRSS sleeping bag, wool blanket, fire starting kit, two tow chains, a come-along, a shovel, and an axe. There have been times that I wished that I also had a chainsaw on board, but storage space is a constraint. (An axe will suffice in most instances, but it is much more labor intensive.) Thankfully, the majority of this gear--most notably the tow chain--has been used several times to assist other motorists, rather than myself or members of my family. Most of these have been nature photographers and dude hunters that have got themselves in over their heads, back on BLM and Forest Service roads. Depending on the season, I also carry varying quantities of cold weather clothing, and tire chains. (Yes, there are circumstances in the spring "mud season" when studded snow tires are insufficient!) When I take longer highway trips outside of my neck of the woods, I often substitute full-up "get me home" backpacks for the weight and space normally that is occupied by the tow chains and pioneer tools.

Our primary vehicle is a well-maintained Flex Fuel (E85 ethanol compatible) Ford SUV, circa 2002. It is in fairly "stock" configuration, but here in my region, one common modification is the addition of an extra heavy duty brush guard. These aren't designed to deflect brush, but rather deer. (Deer collisions are by far the most common road hazards here.) You even see some passenger cars equipped with these "deer catchers" . They look rather comical on the front of a four-door sedan.

Even though I live outside of any anticipated EMP footprints, I carry spare electronic ignition and fuel system components, wrapped in multiple layers of aluminum foil, and stowed in a Danish cookie tin.

Since several members of our family are licensed radio amateurs, we carry either 2 Meter or 440 MHz (70 cm) transceivers in our vehicles. (We have both vehicular and hand-held models, mostly older model Kenwoods.) Diamond makes high-quality dual-band and tri-band magnetic mount vehicular antennas. For short range communication, we use MURS band walkie-talkies--which require no license--that are typically tuned to the same frequency of our Dakota Alert alarms.

Mr. Rawles-
D. in Dubai has made an excellent point in regards to protein powders/meal replacement drinks. You are correct in that the 'Ensure" and other medical-oriented drinks are a bit more balanced; however they tend to be lower in protein per ounce than the 'sports' type of drinks.

That said, The bulk purchase of a powder that is palatable to you and your family is an excellent means to balance out your bulk food stores, such as pastas, rice, etc. There also tends to be excellent vitamin and mineral contents in their drinks as well. A caveat: go to a store and ask for samples to taste - this is important! Some are simply nasty, some are delicious. Also, start small. Begin with just a fraction of a serving, and use it regularly. This will adapt your digestion to a new food, and the transition will be much smoother.

Once you find one you like, stock up. The prices are reasonable now, plan accordingly! - Sled

Mr. Rawles,
The recent Ensure powder link to Amazon (for one of their partner retailers) at $92.34 + $5.90 shipping is more expensive than buying it directly from Abbott Labs (the manufacturer) at $65.93 with free shipping on orders over $50. I've also seen it on the beta test of the grocery web site for ChinaMart (Walmart.com) but it's not there today.

Abbott also has offers on their site for "Buy three, get one free" coupons for local brick-and-mortar retail purchasers.

They also offer free sample coupons and other discount coupons.

In my opinion, the Butter Pecan is the best and Cafe Latte is a close second. But avoid the strawberry flavor! Thx. - Kent M.

Mr. Rawles,
I've been following your site for some time and thoroughly enjoy it. The information provided here is outstanding. I'm writing to make a suggestion for a short term and possibly long term survival food.

A quick premise. I've been working out and lifting weights off and on for the last three to four years. I lifted weights when I was much younger and I needed to incorporate them to get back into shape. Now that I'm a little older and wiser I've been using the internet to find out more about fitness and physical development. I'm by no means one of the monster lifters you see at the gym but, I am relatively fit and what is termed a "hard gainer" or ectomorph somatype. That means gaining muscle mass is difficult for me as my metabolism burns through calories very easily. I'm the slender guy all women hate because I can eat and eat and not gain weight.

As I began to learn more and more about weight lifting techniques and routines I began to learn more about the types of nutrition that would benefit me to include protein powders, shakes, or meal replacement shakes/drinks as they are called.

Most are loaded, or claim to be loaded, with whey protein, as well as other nutrients needed for maintenance and development. These same nutrients are essential for consumption in an emergency and no one goes running to the store for them once the shelves are empty at the super market. Only your most hardcore lifter will be stocking up on mass quantities prior to or during an event/incident. If you come across this guy, stay out of his way. He's apparently really serious about lifting. LOL

That being said, in an emergency you can buy them without having to fight off the mob at your local vitamin and supplement shop. Many of them recommend drinking them one or two hours before a workout to have nutrients available during your workout and then again within one hour of completing your workout to feed the muscle and begin repairing it from tearing it down. In two servings the caloric intake is between six hundred and one-thousand calories. Some are loaded with even more calories per serving and that can be very helpful for life sustaining nutrition. I can gulp one down very quickly. Those that have been in the military can attest to having limited time to eat and MRE let alone heat one up while on patrol.

All you need to make protein powders into a "meal" or "shake" is water or milk, a measuring cup, and a hand mixer or shaker. You don't need power to cook or prepare it. Measure water or milk into your shaker add the powder and shake or mix well. You can even measure the powder into small individual ziplock snack bags and put those inside a shaker for storage in your B.O.B. or kit for emergency use.

Now be warned, some of the products I've tried taste awful. I know that what I enjoy as far as taste and flavor go more than likely isn't the same as what anyone else is going to like or enjoy so, I'd advise buying some of the smaller containers to start and see if you can find one that you can enjoy if you intend to use them as an emergency food or supplement. Don't buy any of the Ready To Drink or "RTD" products. These must be kept refrigerated for whatever reason and they taste horrible. The powders of the same product taste much better. I've no idea what they do to make the RTD shakes but, whatever it is they should just stop.

The one I've finally decided to use exclusively is Cytosport Muscle Milk. It can be a little more expensive than most but, I get three hundred calories from a serving of the powder with water. It comes in multiple flavors, tastes fantastic, like a shake should and when I mix it with milk it can almost double the calories per serving. Cytosport has multiple products and varying prices. Some are loaded with calories and that can be very helpful for life-sustaining nutrition.

No, it's not loaded with a ton of sugar, even though in a stressful situation you'd burn through them quickly. Sugars are the enemy of weight lifters to a degree, and more than likely it will be loaded with essential vitamins and minerals needed for survival.

These can be utilized on patrols as well. Mixing the shakes with water and having them in a shaker in your pack makes for a fast meal while on the move. Leaves no garbage behind as you just toss the shaker back in your pack and keep moving. Two or three and an MRE and you can go for a couple days if need be. Where I am they have smaller shakers than I'm used to in the US. These would be very handy for just such a use. Just make sure if you make the shakes ahead of time, the lids/tops are on securely.

I can't vouch for the shelf life of the powders. I'm sure that they are fairly stable and may store for quite a while. I would wager no one has ever asked companies that manufacture them to test to see how well they keep over time. Usually, they are produced and consumed. For myself, I'll pack more than few of the large jugs away for when TSHTF.

When I buy them I do so mostly through the Internet. You can save a lot of money like that as opposed to buying in the store. In an emergency you'll have to take what you can get if you haven't already stocked some in. I buy the large five lb. jug and I get quite a few shakes from it. I'd estimate I get from thirty to forty shakes out of one jug going by the directions.

One more thing. When using these products and working out (or surviving TEOTWAWKI) your body will more often than not be burning up calories like a blowtorch burns through oxygen. Even without using this, more than likely you may experience some constipation. I know how a stressful or drastic change in environment can kick your body's metabolism into hyper-drive. Even if you drink a gallon of water a day you can still get bound up. Be mindful of this or you'll be very unhappy when the time comes to make a sitting head call. - D in Dubai

JWR Adds: I have read that liquid meal replacements that were originally developed for the elderly such as Ensure powder offer more complete and balanced nutrition than do the weight training liquid food supplements. In powder form, they are more compact for storage, and have a longer shelf life than the liquid form. They are also less likely to cause constipation than the weight training supplements.

My dad kicked me out when I was 19 so I lived in my car for a year on the streets and got pretty good at it.

I'm now married in my mid-40s and have ran several successful businesses and doing well for myself. But, I'm still a cheapie at heart. I absolutely hate paying for motels. When I travel I spend lots of money on food and entertainment, but I hate paying nightly for a bed to sleep on. About 10 years ago I bought nondescript 1994 mini-van Plymouth Voyager and converted it into what I call the Stealth Camper. This small "domestic" looking vehicle comfortably sleeps my wife and I. I built a plywood bed on a welded frame about 16 inches off the floor taking up the entire back giving huge storage space underneath. There are lower access panels and removable sections for daytime use of space. My wife likes extra comfy so with 6" foam rubber mattress it's actually more comfy than our home bed. All back windows have solid black fabric, velcro attached so from outside looks like dark tinted (but they are actually opaque). Velrco allows for easy peaking out in any direction. Behind front seats is black opaque fabric so even with lights on in the back, no light can be seen outside of vehicle. I built in a toilet (mainly for her), but I found I prefer to pee in a wide mouth gallon Gatorade bottle. I also installed inside snap lock latches for the back door, back sliding door, and both front doors. If somebody tries to break in while we are sleeping I will have plenty of time to take action. The only thing the Stealth Camper doesn't have is a built in shower. I've come up with a design for a simple roll up sitting enclosure for a gravity solar heated shower which I'll build later on.

Keep your stealth vehicle clean and well kept. Keep yourself well kept, shaven, clean. Short hair is easier to keep clean than long hair. During warm weather every 2 days buy a shower at a gym or truck stop, or go swimming. I'm told there now are national gym memberships so that is probably your best bet if you travel around a lot. Cold weather you can stretch out a shower every 3 to 5 days. Also camping solar showers work great away from town. Or, to use a solar shower in town; park your vehicle in self serve car wash and give yourself a shower while wearing a bathing suite. I've had few strange looks over the years but no hassles. In between showers give yourself a morning clean up with a wet warm rag courtesy bathroom sink at McDonald's or gas station.

For the first couple of years we would leave the side windows hinged open for ventilation while we slept. This worked fine. But because of security issues we now keep them locked shut, as I'd cut ventilation ducts into the van floor. The front windows have exterior rain guards attached so we usually leave them cracked 1/2 inch for cross-ventilation since the rain guards visually hide the open windows. From the outside, the van looks all sealed up and vacant. I also have installed a low RPM (quiet) 12VDC fan from a junk computer to provide extra ventilation on the floor vent with on a low/high switch when needed. Open windows are a dead give away of vehicle occupancy!

Our favorite time for Stealth Camper traveling is in the cool seasons. Especially if its raining; minimal outside human activity and I've never been roused during a rainy night. I sleep deeply when it's cool and when it rains!

We've been roused a few times and learned a few tricks...

#1. Never sleep with an empty gas tank.
#2. Always have a planned escape route. When parking in a parking space, try to back in so you can leave straight out forward. If you need to leave in a hurry while only half woken up; you need everything in your favor. Know the streets around where you are parked. You don't want to escape down a dead end street.
#3. Have your ignition key available in case you need to jump into the drivers seat for a quick get away.
#4. Sleep wearing skin tight opaque black shirt and black sweat pants or shorts. This way at night time you look nearly invisible from the outside even when you are sitting up front.
#5. Have a roll of quality lint-free paper towels up-front so you can wipe the condensation off the inside front window in the morning.
#6. Have your drivers license / ID / registration, car insurance, etc. ready in case you are roused by authorities.
#7. Do not have illegal items in your possession (or at least find able) in case you are roused by authorities.
#8. When possible pull into your parking space just after dusk. Try to leave in the morning before dawn.
#9. Try to obtain a vehicle (like mini-van) where you can go between sleeping area and drivers seat without leaving vehicle.
#10. Keep the exterior of your vehicle in same condition as average vehicles around you. Blend in. Don't look out of place. I can drive down any street and easily pick out all the vehicles that are occupied. If I miss your vehicle then you've succeeded.

We have California license plates. When I'm not in California I try to park where other "out of state" transient domestic vehicles park; and that's motels / hotel parking lots. Or at least near motel and hotels. I've stayed plenty of times at rest areas without problems but I've heard others tell of many problems.

Warm nights are the worst security times, especially on Friday and Saturday nights. Lots of human / kids / young adult and loud activity all night long. People mulling around coming and going. Motel, apartment and young persons areas are terrible. On these worst nights my favorite places to park:
Old folk housing parking lots. Nice and quite.
Hospital back lot parking lots away from activity.
Some motel/hotels have a "quieter" (weekly / monthly rate) side with lower activity. Park as far away from the building as possible! Do not park anywhere near the entrance / exit or buildings. but do park where other cars are parked.
Anywhere truckers park for the night is safer, but this will be noisy. Stay up wind to avoid diesel fumes

Cold especially rainy nights non Friday and Saturday nights are my favorite with minimal human / noise activities. These are my favorite and I'll often park in these areas in no particular order:
Guest areas of apartment complexes. Don't park in residential or numbered areas!
Hotel/motel parking lots. Don't park in room numbered spaces!
Casino parking lots.
Hospital parking lots
Quiet residential areas between two houses [straddling the property line]. Never park in front of somebody's house.
Always park where other cars park for the full night.
I don't like to park where there's lots of activity; where cars are constantly coming and going.
I like to try to find a secondary street, never a primary commute artery. It's amazing how many people get up and go to work at 4 a.m. in the morning!

I have but never liked parking in:
Store parking lots.
Industrial areas.
Away from other vehicles.

I always prefer to park in near the far end of a mass of other vehicles.

When parking on a street for the night always try to park with a car behind you (preferably larger vehicle than you). Never park at an end of a block or at an intersection. This way you'll be less likely to be hit from behind by a drunken wayward vehicle. Also your vehicle will visually not stand out. Don't park on the end of a parking lot for the same reasons.

Don't park anywhere near "all night businesses", bars, liquor stores, etc. Or, anywhere kids hang out, skateboard, kid parks. For quiet night, stay away from main roads and freeways.

My stories of strange situations...

When I was 19 living in my car (before I bought the Stealth Camper) one night I was parked end of a dead end road. Police knocked on my window waking me. Apparently nosy neighbors reported me. I told police my Dad kicked me out. He told me to park behind Montgomery Wards and I was never bothered again. I parked there for about 6 months. After that I got permission to park in a friends driveway for the next six months.

With Stealth Camper, one night I was parked on a country road shoulder (I was only vehicle there). Police pulled up behind and shined light for 10 minutes or so then left. I assume they ran my plates. I don't think they knew vehicle was occupied. I try not to park on deserted roads; it just makes you an out of place target. Always park where other vehicles park for the night.

One hot night in Santa Rosa, California I parked in front of a residential house with all the vent windows open (dead giveaway of occupancy). I was hot, uncovered, and nearly naked. Somebody was mulling around the vehicle with a high powered flashlight trying to peak in the windows and window vents. I guess he he got a view. He yelled "get the f**k away from my house or I'll call the police". I said sorry and left quickly (half naked). I always wore my black sleeping outfit after that.

One night in Reno I was parked across the street of a large parking lot near a residential neighborhood. About midnight I heard racing car engine, tire squealing then crash. Then crash again. And another crash. More crashes... I looked out the window at the parking lot now nearly empty this time of night; a car was driving around just crashing into other cars apparently just for the fun of it. As I left the area I happened to notice I had parked that night in front of a police station which I guess it was empty since I saw no activity there!

One night on a side pull out shoulder off freeway in New Mexico I was very tired and needed just a short nap. Highway patrol ran me and vehicle plates then told me there was picnic area a mile up the road. I moved on up there and stayed the rest of the night no hassles.

I camped out in parking lot of Luxor casino Las Vegas. Accidentally slept in. I had all the vent windows open. Security knocked on window and told me to move on.

One night in Texas out in the middle of nowhere I pulled into a 24 hour truck stop and pulled head into parking space in back of the gas station. My wife in a panic woke me up telling me that someone was prying on the windows trying to break in. I jumped into the drivers seat trying to find my keys. Problem is I had to back out of the space and I couldn't see out the mirrors and I was half asleep and didn't have a full view of the situation. The "drunk Mexican" was yelling at me saying he needed help, he needed help. "Please help me" in slurred English. I was concentrating on getting the van moving when my wife all of a sudden was yelling "he's got a gun, he's got a gun". Somehow I got the van backed out with out hitting anything and started leaving. The Mexican jumped into a white pick-up truck and started following us. I stopped at the gas pump and saw him in my mirror stop behind me and he got out and was coming up to the van. I floored it and got onto the freeway and never saw him again. Next problem was gas gauge was showing empty and it was 50 miles to the next gas. This taught me three things: Never park with an empty gas tank. Never pull face into a parking space. Always have an escape/defense plan. I made it 50 miles on fumes. I had to wait until morning for that gas station to open and I was a sitting duck the rest of that night but luckily no further problems.

I love urban stealth camping. Over the years, I have saved big bucks and I like the flexibility of not being limited to a motel room. - California Don

Sir,
Here is a list of the food suggestions that we made for our kids families. This list only deals with the food and not any implements or utensils needed for preparation and consumption. We already supplied them with what was needed kit wise and it was up to them to provide the food of their choice.

• Trail Mix
• Jerky
• Dried Fruit – Raisins, Banana Chips, Etc
• Small Pop Top Canned Meats - Vienna Sausage, Deviled Ham or Tuna
• Small Jar Peanut Butter
• Crackers (large round ones can be stored in “Pringles” tube)
• Granola Bars
• Candy (but consider the melt factor for any chocolate type)
• Instant Oatmeal
• Coffee Singles
• Cocoa Mixes
• Tea Bags
• Sugar and Creamer Packets
• Individual Packets of Gatorade, Lemonade, Punch
• Cans of Stew, Chili, Chunky Soups or Beans & Wieners (pop tops)
• Knorr Lipton Rice and Sauce Mixes (add water only type)
• Knorr Lipton Pasta and Sauce Mixes (must have milk powder)
• Small Cans of Ham, Chicken, Etc (to add to rice or pasta)
• Small Cans of Green Beans or Corn (to add to rice or pasta)
• Envelopes of Instant Mashed Potatoes (add water only type)
• Instant Gravy Mixes
• Ramen Noodles
• Non Refrigerated Pudding Cups
• Fruit Cups

Regards, - Jim and Glennis

JWR Replies: Because of the large amounts of refined sugar in many of these foods, some cannot be recommend as healthy foods for long-term use. But even these have utility in a short-term "bug out" situation for your G.O.O.D. kit, where the sheer number of calories will trump most other selection factors.

I am unable to make my home self-sustaining.  So, unfortunately, my family will probably become refugees in a true SHTF scenario.  My focus presently is in becoming desirable refugees rather than shunned refugees.  The key is minimizing any negative impact (extra logistics of all sorts) and maximizing any positive impact (filling in weak spots) to someone that is geographically fortuitous.  I was challenged to figure out how a small family could best become a wanted commodity when food is tight and security isn’t. I determined the key for us was that everything carried needed to be dense in value. Density equals mass divided by volume. In our case, mass would be the battered value of the item; volume was limited by the size of our packs. We can’t carry enough bulk food, but we can carry items that will have an excellent post-SHTF (bartered) value, an example would be trading  batteries for an illuminated-reticle or starlight scope in exchange for food.  Keeping our packs small (but danged heavy) will give us an additional advantage if we need to make a small camp.

Skill sets are valuable.  I am fortunate to have become a physician.  Talk about (trading) food for thought! I am trained in Internal Medicine, so much of my skill set depends on a working infrastructure, that is, availability of medications, imaging (X-rays, CT, MRIs and the like) which will be useless once the grid goes down.  To make up for that, I have been certified in ATLS (Advanced Trauma Life Support) and ACLS (Advanced Cardiac Life Support), the former being far more useful in extended emergencies.  Further, I have also trained in mass casualty scenarios.  I have been stashing typically needed and well tolerated medications in a FIFO set-up in my home, from antibiotics to blood pressure pills.  In a legally gray area, I have some potent narcotics (barter/ransom/medical use). I also have a good stock of scalpels, retractors, Celox and the like to maximize my worth. The first lives my first aid kit may save might be my family’s. My skill set will be in demand, and I hope with the other positives below, worth enough to take in extra mouths to feed. But I recognize, perhaps better than non-medical people, that the quality of medical care will quickly revert to the level practiced before the advent of antibiotics and other modern pharmaceuticals. Think Civil War or WWI where a gut-shot was a death-sentence.  Garlic may have some ant- microbial properties, but it pales compared to a few doses of modern antibiotics.  Being a doctor in a SHTF scenario may be like being a sailor in the middle of a desert: lots of knowledge but only able to apply a small fraction of it.

My wife is an educator and now teaches special needs kids.  If the Collapse is a bad one, kids will still need to learn, and there is more to teaching than just putting material in front of kids, as anyone that homeschools will agree.

Those are our special skill sets. You can never have enough skill sets, and we plan to further develop our skills.

Our two children are too young to be useful for anything except giving us joy, . And dirty laundry.

We have been buying weapons in standard calibers – 45 ACP, 5.56, and 22LR.  I have given myself the luxury of owning a PS90. I rationalized the purchase by the fact that it supports a 50 round magazine of 5.7 rounds and bridges the gap between a pistol and a longer rifle. In reality, it looks really cool. Four mags on my hip (and one in the rifle) gives me 250 rounds. In an urban/suburban location, which will be the most difficult part of our journey, I do not see a need to shoot over 100 m. Most action will likely be under that, and that is the niche for the PS90. Additionally, it’s bullpup design keeps it short and maneuverable in a vehicle without sacrificing accuracy (it has a 16 inch barrel).  More importantly, we have packed way about 150 pounds worth of ammo in our G.O.O.D .bags and another 70 lbs in our BOB’s. We have so far two extra ARs and three Glocks for barter/trade. We don’t have a weapon for the 22LR, but either we will (Ruger’s 10/22) or it’s for barter. Our bags are meant to carry the lead at the sacrifice of food. It may be easier to barter rounds (heavy but small) for food (light but large).  If we do make to the hinterlands, having our ammo added to the favorably situated ‘castle’ will be a bonus.  My wife and I both shoot accurately to 200 m, and well enough at 300 - 400 m to keep the philistines away. We continue to practice our shooting skills by range time and class time. We will get far.

I’ve begun a ‘collection’ of survival knives and high quality folders by buying two at a time (again, two is one, and one is none).  They will be needed en route and, like ammo, possess an excellent weight to bartered value.  My guess is that knives will lost or broken and there will be a demand for them.  In the same category, are redundant Katadyn water filters kits.  Extras were purchased because they are small and will barter well. Bolt cutters were bought because they will be useful traveling and also in barter. Bic lighters, assorted tiny screws for spectacles with jeweler screwdrivers , rechargeable CR123 and AA batteries, extra Gerber multitools, quality compasses, 550 cord, several small but bright flashlights (Fenix brand – 1 or 2 CR123 batteries and they pump out over 180 lumen and fit on a keychain or a rifle), two Old Testaments, and 2 American flags fill the small spaces in the gear.  We keep thinking on how to improve our “stock” and get more bang for the buck with ‘value dense ‘ items. I thought of the extra eye-glass screws after having my own come apart just as I got to work and spent a miserable day squinting.  Someone missing their glasses won’t function at near capacity and the eye glass screw may be the equivalent of the nail that caused a horse to be lost, then a rider to be lost etc.

We also have our own gear and clothing, using the layer approach with an outer hardshell in camouflage.  We both have packed two pair of extra boots, either for the long haul or barter.

These items get thrown into the trunk along with our Camelbaks, and our mountain bikes (with extra tubes and tires) go on top supporting a few jerry cans of gasoline lashed between them.  If we can’t get to a refuge with available gas or the roads become impassable, then we load the bikes up and ride/walk until we are welcomed.

If we’re lucky, the Collapse will wait until we can move to a more geographically desirable location and all these purchases will remain useful while we focus on new needs (stored food, long term water and power and etc). If not,  I have improvised a plan that adapts to our situation and hopefully will change our refugee status to a valued team-member.

This is written in part because there has been no view from the prepared refugees.  There may be more preppers without a safe haven than those able to develop a safe haven, not because of any deficit or laziness on their part, but because of reality.  In addition, all preppers cannot move to a sparsely populated area in the US for if they did (imagine merely 10% of NYC, LA, and DC doing so during by the end Obama’s administration), those areas would no longer be sparsely populated! So think of what you can carry that can be bartered for things you can’t carry and that will make you into a valuable  team member.

I have worked hard to become a doctor (and perhaps even harder to remain a doctor is this crazed system) and to be able to give charity rather than receive it.  If I am to receive the charity of shelter from someone who is able to do so, I will be sure that we do more than just pull on own weight.  We will add security, in the short and long haul.

So if TEOTWAWKI happens, keep a lookout for strangers who may have much to offer. But for the grace of God, it might have been you unable to live in a geographically desirable area and looking to add to an established sanctuary.

Jim,
I have several books, folded sheet, and other type maps. I wanted to purchase or acquire a good satellite image map with roads and terrain. After thinking, big mistake, I realized I already had the answer loaded on my computer.

I have Google Earth. On Google Earth you can add lots of legend material, Miles/ Kilometer, parks, etc, I went to the area I was in and printed out several elevations. In some areas you can zoom down to 100 feet elevation. I then went to the nearby office place and had the sheets laminated, and spiral bound. Keep you print outs in order or in the word processor program number your pages and add N,S,E,W tags. Then I got the bright idea that 8”x 11” was rather large so I made new print outs ½ size, laminated spiral bound, with a cover. Now if you do not have a color printer it is possible to save your handy work to disk and at an office place like Kinko's have them print it out for you. The cost is slightly more but well worth the effort. I you don't have a computer you local library has one and if they don't have Google Earth, then use Weatherunderground.com. Choose your area and then pick “wundermap” function right click to copy then paste into your document.

One other item I will suggest is a journal. Write down your thoughts and dreams. Later in life it may provide some laughs, good information or just having reading material. The “Marble” type bound notebook is fine or if you are so inclined a mole skin type bound or there are lots of other options just not spiral bound.

Jim, you and your family are in our Prayers and thank you for writing your new book, "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It". I'm now only several chapters into it but I'm already certain the information will save me several thousands of dollars in mistakes. - Jeff B.

Since June of this year when my new Dahon Speed 8 folding bicycle arrived I have greatly increased my bicycle mileage typically doing about 120 miles a week commuting instead of taking the bus in. The Dahon is a 20" wheel folder so I have the option of bagging it up throwing it in the back seat or trunk and catching a ride with friends or taking the inter-city bus if I am tired, this hitch-hike-ability could be an important to a survivalist trying to cover long distances, perhaps even beating out the larger harder to stash 26" wheel folding bikes. The better Dahons come equipped with Schwable super long life tires, they have significantly longer wear life than most bicycle tires. Since this bicycle is ridden around four hours a day comfort is key, a quality narrow spring seat, alloy pedals, hand grips and multi position "horn" bar ends were upgraded since these were the places that my body interfaced with the machine. Good fenders and aluminum cargo racks front and rear let me carry my backpack on the front with the extra pack strap length secured with recycled inner tube rubber bands. I had straps added to my pack to secure my pack onto the front rack where I feel I have the best control. A useful feature of some Dahons is the seat post air pump which gives a long stroke floor pump inside the long seat post shaft. As for spares I carry an extra tube, LED headlight, tire levers, Rema Tip Top patches(by far the best), and a Crank Brothers folding bicycle multi tool, additionally I have 4mm and 6mm Allen wrenches on my key chain next to my Kryptonite bike lock key. During regular times I wear a bluetooth headset for my mobile phone and white LED forward headlamp and red rear LED flashers attached to the helmet, a yellow reflective safety vest makes me even more visible to drivers. A Glock Model 17 and two spare mags in a padded Michael's of Oregon ("Uncle Mike's) holster on my heavy leather belt is comfortable and has shown no complaint to my regular sweating on summer rides. During a two hour afternoon ride I consume about two liters of water and occasionally gulp down some salted honey I keep in a sports gel flask for an extra boost before a hill. Regular mountain commuting will wear on your brakes, a complete set of brake pads is a good idea to keep in your repair kit.

I have made several five day to one week trips in the last few years and in addition to the regular stuff I carry for commuting I also include:
-Stuffable semipermiable rain/wind jacket
-Two pair of wool socks
-Hennessey asym hammock
-MSR Whisperlite International stove
-Kerosene fuel bottle
-MSR cook set
-Military nesting silverware
-MMR-40 40 meter QRP kitted radio
-15deg F lightweight sleeping bag
Everything fits in a mountaineering day pack.

I find that beans and lots of rice supplemented by eggs for dinner and fresh fruit especially bananas for snacks keep me running strong all day if I am careful to pace myself, I also try to remember vitamins. Since I know that I will be eating large portions it makes sense to pack larger camp pots. Strong coffee seems to boost my cycling strength especially when traveling uphill, but a person should know how late in the day they can drink caffeine before it affects their quality of sleep. Caffeine also causes you to urinate more requiring additional water supply. Along with the Norwegian and Swedish armies, I use the fold-a-cup coffee cup. It is unbreakable and flexible.

Hydration is key, for commuting my regular 2/3 liter bottle and a 1.5 liter soft drink bottle is enough for commuting 1.5 to two hours with about 200 meter climb in the hot sun. More water bottles for longer trips can be carried in tight panniers on the rear rack. There are times where a very dilute fruit juice makes gulping down water easier. I refill my bottles at every opportunity. I carry an Aquamira filter squirt bottle for my bike bottle and purification tablets for using questionable irrigation or spring water.

I have previously in SurvivalBlog extolled the virtues of kitting together the very small (2/3 the length of a 600 page paperback book) and inexpensive MMR-40 radio. It provides 6 watts for CW or SSB PSK-31 digital mode has a range of up to several thousand miles [with favorable ionospheric conditions].

The Hennessey hammock is a wonder of simple engineering. The asymmetrical design lets a large person lay off-axis on his side without being forced into the parabolic curve of the hammock. Entry is through a slit in the bottom which snaps shut from the weight of the camper and a tough bug net is sewn to the whole hammock. There is a cord keeping the bug net off of the campers face hung from this is a mesh pocket for your glasses, phone, or headlight. The rain fly when attached kept me warm and dry through a few downpours, but if there is a possibility of strong wind the rain fly cords should be staked or weighted with water bottles else they might blow a flap of rain fly open to the rain depending how the hammock is hung. If it is cold more insulation or a sheet of closed cell foam will make up for the compressed insulation heat losses on the bottom of the hammock. The Hennessey hammock also makes a nice swing seat, if you have no big trees available. The instructions also show how to use the hammock as a one man tent using walking stick or saplings. As with any hammock be sure you are tied into live trees and not dead rotted snags which could fall and crush you. On the upside you need not worry about how steep the incline or rockiness of the terrain as you are hanging suspended.

I used to carry a small Triangia cook set including a brass alcohol stove, which is a tougher sealable version of the DIY soda can stoves. I have found these to be useful in their weight but the hazard of a tip over burning fuel spill combined with the price of alcohol fuel at the paint store lead me to keep this for ultralight expeditions and instead to use my MSR stove. The MSR Whisperlite is designed for easy field maintenance as are most MSR products. The one main weak point, the pump stop, which has failed in a non critical way on all of my older MSR stoves, could allow foreign objects into the pump mechanism or loss of the piston, this has been upgraded to a much stronger design in recent years by MSR. I use kerosene due to the higher energy content over gasoline and the cleanest flame of fuels easily available to me in Israel. I carry a small bottle of alcohol to prime the stove, this leads to much less carbon accumulating on the stove, and quicker startups. (A tablespoon of alcohol fuel into the primer cup is enough to prime the stove most of the time.) Using the wind guard (very heavy aluminum foil) wrapped tight to keep the heat in the stove it primes and is ready to cook much faster, then the wind guard keeps the heat on my pots. I must also mention that MSR makes a repair/service kit with most of the parts and tools to fix and maintain your stove even on extended outings. - David in Israel

A little foreknowledge will prevent you from becoming a victim. Most people don’t think about what they will actually do in the case of an emergency. One just has to see what happened after Hurricane Katrina to see how ill-informed the masses are. They simply expect the government to take care of everything. They meander like zombies to some location and wait to be fed and cleaned up after. Not me! I know what I’m going to do when any disaster strikes.

In this article I want to share with you my thoughts on how to:

•Assess the situation and your location.

•Assess your job location and commute.

•Assess any variables to your survival plans.

When disaster strikes where will you be? How well do you know the place where you live, work, or the space in between? Chances are that when a disaster occurs you will be either at home or at work or commuting in between. You may be ready to deal with things at home on a sunny afternoon, but what if you’re on the road in a downpour?

The main occupation of think tanks is to devise scenarios of whatever their specialty is; oil, food, military or political events. The same tactics can be done on an individual scale to find out what your reactions might be to disasters or events. You can plan out your reactions to events by knowing what your assets are at the time and how to be ready for any variables. Planning is simply about not being surprised. “When I am in situation 1, I will do X. When I am in situation 2 I will do Y.” Simple yet effective.

ASSESS THE SITUATION

A scenario doesn’t need to be the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI). Natural disasters are just as important and deadly. Not just in the initial disaster but also in the aftermath. Actually more people usually die after a disaster.

Living here in Northern California, earthquakes are an ever present fear and so ill prepared by people and neglected by the elected officials, city planners and developers. People’s houses might be able to take a moderate earthquake with little damage, but what about the roads, highways and overpasses? Chances are fire will spread unabated killing more people than the initial damage. Or, with the cops busy, looters will think it’s open season on home shopping.

So where does your house stand in the general theme of threats?

TASK #1: List the dangers that might affect your area.

Living where you do, you should already have some experience with some disaster inducing events. The United States has a very large variation in weather and its effects can be devastating. Floods near rivers, hurricanes near the coasts, blizzards up north, heat waves almost anywhere, earthquakes out west… the list goes on. You have probably dealt with something already.

Growing up in the Midwest we were always in danger of tornados cutting a swath through our neighborhood. Then in winter we had to worry about blizzards. But the situation doesn’t have to be devastating. What if a thunderstorm simply cut the power for several days? What if the basement floods? What if there’s an escape from a prison?

Could the effects be temporary or long lasting? Is it just power lines down or a blackout covering several states? Do striking rail workers mean food shortages? Is the riot from a basketball game or did Oakland finally collapse into chaos?

ASSESS YOUR LOCATION

TASK#2: Know your city.

As a pilot I know a lot about terrain. All day long I see the land rolling underneath me. Here in Northern California, from the air, I can easily see how land is managed and how cities and towns are developed. I see how many roads go in and out of town centers, suburbs, business parks and so on.

The place I live in is a small town in a valley with only a few roads leading in and out. If there was an earthquake along the Hayward fault line like the “big one” that is due to happen here any time now, and most of Oakland, Berkeley, San Francisco were apocalyptic hellscapes, the bridges might be knocked out and it would hopefully prevent refugees from setting up camp in our open land. We have a route to safety toward Sacramento if needed. And we have arable land that can be turned into farms quickly.

How dense is the population where you live?

Do you live in a dense populated city? A suburb? In the center or on the edge, close to farmland? If there was a disaster, where would most of those people head? You don’t need to fly over your area to assess it, Google Earth will do just fine. Take a good look at the main avenues of traffic and housing. Where is the most dense? Where do you not want to be? Where does the suburbs taper off finally into farmland? If Hurricane Katrina is any indication, people will congregate in a large open space like a stadium, park, school or the like. If you were a FEMA organizer, where would you tell people to go?

Where are the nearest hospitals?

When something happens these are most likely going to be the first place that people head for. There is medical attention, food, warmth and light. If you are uninjured, do you really need to go there? Would it be more dangerous? When the hospital gets overloaded after a disaster and turns into a triage; giving attention to the worst cases first, do you think that panicked people are going to simply wait calmly in the waiting room? Or will they start fights, demand attention maybe at gunpoint? Better to avoid it at all costs. (Or be the very first to show up through the emergency room doors!)

Is your home prepared?

Most time spent by people like us is in preparing our home for disaster, so this is well covered elsewhere and too vast to talk about here. But don’t just look at the stuff you have in your house. The wall of freeze-dried food will get you through the initial catastrophe, but then what? How adaptable is your house? Do you have a yard that can be turned into a garden with a little work? Where can you get more water? Are you near a stream or lake?

Is your neighborhood safe and secure?

You don’t have to live in a gated community to be safe, but how far off the main roads is your house or apartment? Would big city gang-bangers find it accessible and tempting? This fear goes up as the powered lights go out at night and all you can see is darkness out of your front door. Even temporary power outages cause hoodlums to go outside and behave like jackasses.

How well do you know your neighbors?

What would your kids do if you were stuck at work and they were home from school? Do they know your plan of action? Which neighbors could they trust? Which neighbors might want to come together but really are there to deplete your stockpile at twice the rate?

ASSESS YOUR WORK AND COMMUTE

TASK #3: Know your place of work.

If you are stuck at work how long could you last there? You could always sleep at your desk overnight but what about food? Do you think your boss would be ready or willing to provide for you and the other employees? Probably not. It would probably turn into surviving out of your car, especially if your place of work is damaged.

What would you do if stuck on the highway?

The cars are stopped because of an earthquake, flood, jack-knifed chemical truck, etc. Could you pull off and hike on foot? Which way?

When I lived in Tokyo we had to have a plan ready for commuting by train and an earthquake happened. I carried a small street map book so I could walk back to my home when the roads and train lines were disrupted. (Even harder for a foreigner.) The Japanese are far better equipped for disasters from typhoons to earthquakes because of simple occurrence. They know it is just inevitable that something is going to happen. There they can trust their government and employers to help though.

Where are your loved ones and do they know what to do?

Does your spouse know what you might do? Don’t expect your cell phones to be working. I have an agreement with my wife not to come looking for me. I will either go to work or home and she will do the same.

ASSESS THE VARIABLES

TASK #4: Game out some variables.

Once you have a plan of action and know what you want to do, you have to be ready for any changes. The emergency situation probably won’t stay static, but either gets better with quick action from authorities or more likely get worse through inaction and incompetence from them.

If rising flood waters block the road that lies between you and your loved ones, do you know the alternate routes? Where is the higher terrain versus lower? Once you know what you want to do, head straight home for example, what variable might change that course of action? Snow too deep. Flooded bridge. Tremors sending rocks to the road below. Pinhead cop telling you the road is closed.

Are you ready for the extremes?

Are you ready to spend the night in your car? Or several nights? You can find lists of things to have to make your car into a temporary shelter, but the main thing is not to be surprised and get taken by panic. Simply be ready to tough it out for a while until the situation is to your advantage. If you plan to stay at work, how long until you want to head home?

In conclusion, being prepared for emergencies is not just about sitting on top of your stockpile of food with an AR-15 and waiting. You have to know the game plan and how to implement it and expect it to change. As a pilot, I am always ready for an emergency situation by being mentally prepared for it and never panicking when it doesn’t go the way I’ve practiced. You can do the same for any situation.

Once you realize the importance of being prepared for coming hard times, you may ask yourself, “How can I possibly prepare for any scenario?  This is an insurmountable undertaking.”  The more you ponder this, the more the reality of this seems to be confirmed.  Let not your heart be troubled.  As with almost any endeavor, the road to success begins with the first step and continues one step at a time.  Consistent, prioritized, careful preparation over a period of time, preparation built around what your personal situation (budget, job, family, medical needs, etc.) will allow, can get you in a position in relatively short order to weather the scenarios that are most likely to occur.  The mere fact that you have considered the possibilities of what may lay ahead can very quickly put you ahead of the vast majority of the population.

Consider the possible scenarios whereby preparedness would prove to be literally a lifesaver.  These scenarios range from very geographically localized events, either natural or man-made, to the proverbial TEOTWAWKI.  The likelihood any of these events occurring generally becomes decreasing likely in a given time frame as the geographical scope and severity of the event increases.  Therefore the occurrence of a total multi-generational societal collapse, requiring the maximum amount of preparation is far less likely to occur over the next year or two or five than relatively local, relatively short term events such as tornados, hurricanes or floods, or even some major terrorist events, all requiring far less preparation than TEOTWAWKI situation previously mentioned.  This should be considered in the early stages of preparation as priorities for investment are made.

Therefore, your preparation should follow a well planned, measured, prioritized process that enables you to be positioned to go through the most likely scenarios first followed by progressively increasing severe scenarios.  Ongoing preparation will build on the past.  No effort goes wasted.  This should be encouraging to the beginning prepper.

How should you start?  Start with a careful analysis of the most likely localized events that may occur in your area or region, or events from another region that may impact your local area (remember passenger air service after 9/11).  Shutdown of transportation systems, especially trucking and rail should be of paramount concern.  What is the probable time frame that these events may cause you to rely on your own resources?  Make a list of all the items and quantities you will need to get through that period of time.  This constitutes the Phase I physical resources preparation plan.

Prioritize the list and within the constraints of your budget begin to acquire the items you have listed.  Keeping an Excel spreadsheet makes this task much easier and allows you to see at a glance exactly how much physical resource preparation you have achieved, how much you still need, the value of those resources, the cost to complete your initial Phase I purchases, etc.  Your spreadsheet should include rows listing each item with columns for:

• Priority
• Category or subcategory
• Quantity Needed (for the given preparation Phase)
• Quantity on Hand
• Difference Needed vs. On-Hand (Calculated Value)
• Cost Each
• Acquisition Cost (Calculated Value)
• On Hand Value (Calculated Value)
• Total Value (Calculated Value)
• Percent Complete for the Item (Calculated Value) – you can color code this Red/Yellow/Green for and at a glance dashboard view
• Subtotals as you feel appropriate for each Category or Sub-Category

In the same way you used Excel to track your Phase I resources preparation status, use your spreadsheet to list categories, sub-categories, items and quantities that you wish to acquire for future Phases, up to and including a Phase for TEOTWAWKI.  This allows you to systematically build your level of preparedness a Phase at a time.  As you start with Phase I, you can also see how well you are gearing up for future Phases as well.  Remember, on-hand quantities, pricing, etc, can carry from the Phase I sheet to the Phase II through Phase “n” sheets so redundant data entry isn’t required!  Don’t forget to make hard copies of your files and save them in a three ring binder.

Additional Tips for getting started.

So you have determined what you need to acquire and have begun to do so.  But prepping isn’t just about acquiring tangible goods. 

It is also about skills.  It is especially about skills.  Even what I have called “Phase I” preparation should include training in the plan.  A diversity of skills within your group (which may start out as just your family) is important.  Take advantage of any relevant training available to you at low or no cost.  Programs available in many communities include CERT, First Aid, CPR and similar.  Use these opportunities to increase your skill base.  These are great skills to have in normal times and are great skills to build upon.  Even these basic courses could prove to literally be lifesavers in “normal” as well as tougher times.

Learn to garden.  Even if you don’t have a retreat with the space, perfect soil, and water supply, you should garden on a smaller scale in your city or suburban back yard.  This will give you a head start in knowledge and experience (i.e., harvesting and saving seeds for future years) when you are able to move to that retreat location.  Plus, fresh garden vegetables are healthier and taste so much better than what you purchase from the store, especially if the store bought vegetables are poured from a can!  Nothing beats enjoying a hand picked, vine ripe tomato fresh from the garden (and I confess, I take the salt shaker out back with me!).

Put away the foods you eat today.  Nitrogen packed survival foods are expensive and likely should and may be a part of your plan.  However, many foods that you eat today can be more immediately utilized to kick start your storage pantry at moderate cost while you save for other more expensive longer term options.  You can buy or easily build out of plywood a FIFO rotation canned goods rack, set it in a pantry or closet and start loading it up today with the foods you already eat.  This accumulation can be done for little perceived cost if done over time.  Simply buy a little extra of what you already purchase each time you are at the store.  You will be amazed at how quickly you can build up a 30, 60, 90 day supply of canned goods that will never go bad because they are what you currently eat so you rotate them via the FIFO system into your daily meals.  Canned vegetables, meats, soups, fruits and sauces can all be stored in this simple way.  All at very moderate expense.

Learn about your firearms.  Practice with them as much as you can afford to.  Get professional instruction.  Basic courses for novices are available at moderate expense.  There are NRA sanctioned courses for basic safety, handling and shooting skills.  Work toward completion of an NRA course or equivalent in self defense in the home and self defense outside the home.   If you are or once you get to be more advanced, get even more advanced training.  If your budget doesn’t initially allow this, do the best you can but plan for more advanced tactical training in a future Phase.  The key now is to get what you can afford and build on that.  Practice, practice, practice.

Don’t think you must necessarily purchase a complete set of new firearms right out of the gate for your survival armory.  Conventional wisdom suggests .45 ACP pistols for carry, .308/7.62 NATO semi-autos for your MBR (with expensive red-dot optics), a good .308 bolt action for long range and / or large game hunting, and perhaps a more expensive shotgun than you have budget for.  If you already have 9mm pistols, that AR-15 you bought a few years ago “because you wanted one”, the scoped .303 you inherited from Dad and an old but functional Remington 870 Express in 12 gauge, you are good to go for now, as a beginner prepper.  Make sure that adequate ammunition is part of your plan, but with this or a similar adequate set of calibers and shotgun you are set for your initial Phases of preparation.  Early on, food, water, medical supplies and the like are likely a higher priority than new firearms.  You can upgrade in a future Phase.  Focus on firearms training at this stage.  It’s about prioritization.  Besides, later phases prepare for scenarios that will be more likely to require the capabilities of upgraded firearms.

A basic principle.  Standardize.  If you pick .45ACP for your personal carry weapon, it is advantages for all members of your group to do the same.  The same principle applies for your MBR, self defense and hunting shotguns, etc.  Ammunition and magazine plans will appreciate this.  Try to standardize on 1 or 2 battery types for your battery operated devices.  Or more correctly standardize by using devices requiring only 1 or 2 battery types.  You don’t want to have to store and/or maintain charges on AA, AAA, CR123, C, D, N and CR2032 batteries, when you could be more efficient and effective with perhaps using only AA batteries.  This principle applies to anything that you have more than one of.  Radios, flashlights, etc.  Remember the axiom, two is one and one is none.  Standardization means simplicity, efficiency, spares.  There may be exceptions, but take standardization into consideration when you develop or modify your plan.  Initially, you may have to have a wider assortment of devices depending on the devices you currently have, but have a strategy to standardize.

Plan to read or more correctly, to learn by reading.  Whenever you come across a useful article, print it out and save it in a three ring binder with other useful articles you have saved.  Even if it is something you can’t purchase or do or use until a future Phase, save it now and add it to the plan now.  There is an incredible amount of useful information in SurvivalBlog.com.  Read and save (and purchase through Jim’s site when you decide to purchase goods from one of his advertisers).  Jim helps us so we should help him where we can.

If you have relatives or friends in a rural location that you can get too and who are willing to take you in during appropriate events, have a G.O.O.D. plan.  This includes hard copy maps with routes and alternate routes.  Practice all routes before the big day.  Practice your load out plan, again, prior to the big day.  Search SurvivalBlog.com for loads of information on G.O.O.D.  There are many concerns related to evacuation in certain scenarios.  Educate yourself and make educated decisions.

This article is the tip of the iceberg with regards to beginning prepping, but hopefully it has a few pointers to get you thinking and to get you started and is an encouragement that this can be done, that you can successfully prepare for the future.  You don’t have to purchase all nitrogen packed long shelf life survival foods or the perfect arsenal with one of every conceivable firearm type for every circumstance (in fact limiting (standardizing) models and calibers has some clear advantages) in order to successfully prepare for the likeliest of scenarios.  Remember, methodical, prioritized preparing is the way to go for those of us on a budget.  Start small, build your knowledge base, supplies and skills, and very soon you will be in the enviable position of weathering the most likely calamities to occur in the next few years.   If you continue this methodical, ongoing process, you will continue to improve your situation and continue to put your self in a position to weather increasingly more severe and longer lasting scenarios.  The important thing for those on a budget is not to wish you could do it all now by immediately trading cash for all the tangibles and training you need, but to start and to start now and to consistently build to our plan as we can afford to do so.

Many of you could be faced with the unique challenge of crossing a river during any number of “The End Of The World As We Know It” (TEOTWAWKI) scenarios. I have pre-positioned a respectable stock of supplies at my primary “Get Out Of Dodge” (G.O.O.D.) retreat site, however have multiple caches at various locations to ensure my family has a fighting chance at survival.  While I hope and pray to be able to evacuate my family safely via vehicle just prior to any TEOTWAWKI scenario.  Murphy’s Law reminds us that, “What can go wrong, will go wrong.”  Hence any prudent planner should be prepared to evacuate on foot.  In this article I will discuss how to successfully cross both open and ice-covered rivers without the use of traditional modern means such as the utilization of bridges and/or boats.  I will not be distinguishing between day or night crossings.  That choice is left to you after reviewing your specific situation and circumstances.

Before I begin I want to emphasize the importance of not limiting yourself to only the use of main transportation routes that force you to place you and your loved ones at a tactical disadvantage. 

Recommended Equipment:
Many of the items listed are multifunctional and most of them should already be found in any well-designed Preparedness Kit and/or Bug Out Bag:

• Convenient Carry Case
• Multiple Inflatable Inner Tubes
• Rubber Tire Patch Kit
• 55-Gallon Barrel Liner Bags and/or Heavy Duty Trash Bags
• Compact Manual Bicycle Pump
• 550 Parachute Cord
• Duct Tape
• Knife
• Topographical Maps
• Camper's Towel
• Binoculars or Monocular
  

Recommend Prior Knowledge:
Prior to any crossing, preparations must be taken.  It is highly encouraged that all adults and children of appropriate age learn the basics of open water swimming.  This should include at a minimum: Treading Water, Front-Crawl, and the Side-Stroke.  (Note:  Swimming is a life-long skill set and while this method of crossing does not require you to be a strong swimmer, some level of capability and confidence is desired.)

It is also encouraged to clearly know the warning signs, symptoms, and treatment for hypothermia.  No matter the weather conditions, hypothermia is of major concern and should always be watched for post any crossing attempt.  I can not stress how important this is.  Immersion hypothermia is much more rapidly onset and cools the core 25 times faster due to waters excellent conduction factor.  Also, most non-mentally and/or physically prepared individuals can swim approximately a half mile in 50° F water.  Water colder than 45° F can bring on hypothermia in less than an hour.  Wearing clothes will help insulate you when in the water, however will contribute to hypothermia once you emerge from the water.  You must have a plan to deal with this. I make my own recommendation (see below). However you need to evaluate your own circumstance and exercise good tactical judgment.

Lastly, you should know the rough guidelines for new clear ice minimum safe thickness.  To obtain this information, check with your local Department of Natural Resources (DNR).  According to the Minnesota DNR, you need approximately 4 inches of ice for safe individual on-foot travel and anything under 2 inches is considered highly unsafe.

Scenario:

For what ever the reason may be “we” are unable to G.O.O.D. to “our” retreat and are now forced to evacuate “ourselves”  and possibly “our family” on foot.  By choosing to do so, many of “us” are forced to navigate multiple river crossings.  “We‘ve” chosen to avoid bridges, knowing that there often immediately overwhelmed and/or under a controlling force due to there natural design and choking nature.

Non-Fordable Deep Open Water River Crossing

Step 1.
Assemble the following into a convenient carry case:  (Multiple Inflatable Inner Tubes, Patch Kit, 55-Gallon Barrel Liner Bags or Heavy Duty Trash Bags, and Compact Manual Bicycle Pump.)  The following should be readily available:  (550 Parachute Cord, Duct Tape, Knife, Topographical Maps, Camper's Towel, and Binoculars or Monocular.)

Step 2.
Designate and review a primary and secondary G.O.O.D. evacuation route using a topographic map.  If available to you, consult overhead photos via open sources such as “Google Earth,” etc.  For an open water river crossing, determine a suitable launching and landing site(s).  Be sure to take into consideration both man-made and natural hazards.  This includes but is not limited to:  (Underwater Debris, Downed Trees, Damns, Docks, Boats, Wildlife, Rocks, and Chemicals.)  Be sure to take into consideration the ease and difficulties of getting in and out of the water.  An ideal landing site is preferred over a less than ideal launch site.  When choosing a landing site, begin your search by taking the width of the river and multiplying that distance by two or three lengths.  With that estimation, look that distance down river for suitable landing sites.  This approximate area should be at a forty-five / sixty degree angle down river from the launch site.  [This depends on the river's current speed and the river's width.] After determining your primary landing site, determine a secondary landing site approximately twenty-five feet further down river in the event of an emergency.  If multiple crossings will be needed to ferry equipment and/or persons across, ensure you have a landing site pre-determined on the same side of the river as your primary launch site following the above guidelines.  (Note: Review your topographic maps when determining your launching and landing sites, and take view of the areas with your binoculars and/or a monocular.)

Step 3.
Now that a launching and landing site have been determined; look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied that the area is relatively free of danger, begin to assemble your Flotation Aid.  The Flotation Aid consist of a inflatable inner tube with an attached makeshift cargo net made from either duct tape and/or 550 parachute cord.  Remember that noise travels farther over water than on land.

Begin by inflating an inflatable inner tube with the compact manual bicycle pump.  Once inflated, use either duct tape and/or 550 parachute cord to form a makeshift cargo net along the inside of the now inflated inner tube.  Once completed you will have successfully made your Floatation Aid.

Step 4.
Place all equipment you wish to keep dry into a 55-gallon barrel liner bag and/or heavy duty trash bag.  Next, strip down to the bare minimum amount of clothing and place into bag, along with foot wear.  Less is more!  You’ll be wet and cold!  Once across, you can dry off and get dressed in warm, dry clothes vs. having to wear cold wet clothes for an extended amount of time, and exposing yourself to a higher risk of hypothermia.  Then, attach a sheathed knife to your person to be used in the event of becoming entangled in any underwater debris, etc.  After placing all items into the bag, seal it.  Once completed, proceed to place the bag onto your Flotation Aid resting within the center area.  Ensure the bag is well balanced and not easily tipped.

Step 5.
Look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied that the area is relatively free of danger; carefully enter the water at your launch site along with your Flotation Aid.  Double check your Flotation Aid for any deficiencies.  Once satisfied, hold the Flotation Aid with one hand to assist in personal flotation and guidance.  Begin to swim down river with the current to your predetermined landing site.  In the event that you miss your original landing site proceed to your alternate and above all remain calm, control your breathing, and focus on getting to shore. 

Step 6.
Upon arrival to your predetermined landing site, beach your Flotation Aid on shore along with yourself.  Do not proceed immediately out of the water!  Look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied that the area is relatively free of danger, slowly exit the water with your Flotation Aid and move to an area of good cover.  Once ashore, remove any wet clothing your wearing and retrieve your campers towel from your equipment.  Dry yourself and proceed to dress in dry clothes.  Once dressed, again look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied, assess your condition and look for any warning signs or symptoms of hypothermia.  If need be, treat.  (NOTE:  A good quick way of raising your core temperature is by doing a few mini-jumping jacks, or by huddling over a survival candle under a poncho.)  If you chose to wear clothes during your crossing, change into dry clothes As Soon As Possible (ASAP)!  During this time, remember to have a tactical mindset in all you do.

Step 7.
Disassemble your Floatation Aid and repack.

Ice-Covered River Crossing

For ice covered river crossings extreme caution is advised!  This should be done only after much consideration; your specific climate and location will dictate these circumstances.  A key principle to remember when crossing any frozen waterway is “distribution of weight.”  When determining a crossing site, look for an area of the river that is straight and/or an area that precedes a bend.  Remember, the water is still flowing under the ice and your goal is to cross at a location where the current is slower and consistent.  However, this does not guarantee any safer ice conditions.

Step 1.
Assemble the following into a convenient carry case:  (Multiple Inflatable Inner Tubes, Patch Kit, 55-Gallon Barrel Liner Bags or Heavy Duty Trash Bags, and Compact Manual Bicycle Pump.)  The following should be readily available:  (550 Parachute Cord, Duct Tape, Knife, Topographical Maps, Campers Towel, and Binoculars or Monocular.)

Step 2.
Designate and review a primary and secondary (GOOD) evacuation route using a Topographic Map.  If available to you, consult overhead photos via open sources such as “Google Earth,” etc…  Unlike an open water crossing as described above; you’ll be choosing a suitable launching and landing site parallel to one another.  This is due to limiting your total time exposed to the dangers of the ice, along with limiting your time creating a silhouette of yourself when out in the open.

Step 3.
After entry and exits sites have been determined; look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied that the area is relatively free of danger, begin to assemble your Flotation Aid(s).  The Flotation Aid under these conditions is similar to the open water method, however you will need to inflate a second inner tube without a makeshift cargo net attached to it.

Step 4.
Place all equipment you wish to keep dry into a 55-gallon barrel liner bag and/or heavy duty trash bag.  Next, remain dressed and attach a sheathed knife to your arm and/or plan to carry it open bladed in hand to act as an ice pick during the crossing.  After placing all items into the bag, seal it.  Once completed, proceed to place the bag onto your Flotation Aid with the makeshift cargo net; resting within the center area.  Ensure the bag is well balanced and not easily tipped.  Then, secure a length of 550 parachute cord to the Flotation Aid to act as a dragline.  When completed, physically step-into the second Flotation Aid without the makeshift cargo net bringing it up to your waist.  This will catch you in the event the ice gives way and limit your exposure.  You can also crawl on your stomach with the Flotation Aid directly under you if desired or feel it necessary to redistribute your weight over a larger surface area, based upon the ice conditions.

Step 5.
Look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied that the area is relatively free of danger; double check your Flotation Aids for any deficiencies.  Once satisfied, begin your crossing.  Your pace should be slow and steady, do not stop once started unless you have no other option.  Be sure to drag the Flotation Aid with your equipment behind you at a safe distance.  In the very unfortunate event you go through the ice…  Remain calm, breath and use your knife to stab and pull yourself back up onto the ice while using your legs to kick, and continue forward to shore.

Step 6.
Once safely across; look and listen for any suspicious indicators.  If satisfied that the area is relatively free of danger, slowly move to an area of good cover.  Dry and change clothes if needed, take mental stock of your condition and check for any warning signs or symptoms of hypothermia.  If need be, treat.  During this time, remember to have a tactical mindset in all you do.

Step 7.
Disassemble your Floatation Aid and repack.

Conclusion:
If you’re unable to patch and repair your inflatable inner tubes with your patch kit, do not simply discard them.  The inner tube itself can still be used for a variety of things.  In the past, I’ve cut mine into small rubber strips and used them as tie-down strips or lashings.  The point is to be resourceful with what you have.  Just because an item no longer serves it’s original purpose doesn’t mean it can’t continue to be of significant use.

Hopefully you found this helpful, and at a very minimum, it stimulated your mind to think and be resourceful when approaching your environment.  I truly hope that TEOTWAWKI never comes, but I’m reassured due to my all hazard planning, preparedness, and tactical mindset that my family and I stand a greater chance of survival compared to the “Joneses” down the street. Take Care and God Bless!

James,
Going through some old gear last month, I found my food supply lists and notes from 1976-79. I thought the old list might be of interest and the lessons I learned during the first three years in the remote Alaska bush may be helpful to a few of your readers. I do not recommend Alaska for a TEOTWAWKI retreat but the lessons I learned the hard way may be helpful to any one in a cold climate.

I grew up in California listing to stories from my grandfather about Alaska and the Yukon. When I graduated from high school my grandfather gave me his remote trapping cabin in Alaska. At 18 I had a lot to learn and discovered many things the hard way. I was lucky to survive the first year.

When I got to Alaska I met my Grandfather’s old trapping partner. He told me that the cabin was fully stocked with everything including food. Enough food and supplies for at least one winter. When I started asking him questions on how to trap he told me “sonny I have not got the time to teach you and since you don’t have to build the cabin you will have time to figure it out. He added half under his breath” providing you do not fall through the ice or freeze to death. He also said something to the effect that if he had not owed my grandfather a favor he would never give his ½ of the cabin to a long haired hippy kid from California. I had to promise the old Sourdough that I would have all of his traps flown back to town at the end of the trapping season or buy the traps from him.

My first winter was a disaster.

Before this the longest I had been in the wilderness was a 23 day Outward Bound survival class that I attended the year before and I had never spent a winter in a cold environment.

To get to the trapping cabin it was at least a two week walk from the end of closest dirt road or a 1:20 hour flight in a bush plane. The cheapest way to fly to the cabin was in a Piper PA-18 Super Cub on tundra tires. The pilot told me he could carry 1 passenger and 200 lbs of supplies or a total of 400 pounds of supplies and no passenger.

When the pilot dropped me off he told me “If I am in the area I will check on you” He did not have any charters that way so he did not check on me that winter.

I got out of the plane with a full back pack of gear, a duffel bag of supplies and a 30-06 rifle. I had to walk a few miles to the cabin. I left the duffel bag in a tree to retrieve later. With a full back pack and my rifle I walked as fast as I could to the cabin. I was excited to see “My cabin” at last. What a shock I had when I saw the cabin! The old Trapper had lived many winters in the cabin and told me it was built strong. What I found was a small log shack with a dirt floor and sod roof. In the cabin a wood stove, a hand built bed frame and table. A old bed mattress suspended by wire from the rafters. There were traps, snow shoes, ax, bow saw, one man cross cut saw, files, a lantern and the other basics that are needed to survive the Alaska winter as a trapper. The trapper had not been to the cabin for four years. At least 60% of the food supply that I was counting on had been eaten by rodents or had spoiled.

First lesson learned! If you count on food to be there when you need it, You better have had your food stored in a very secure way or you may go hungry. Theft is also something to be considered in today’s society and in TEOTWAWKI losing your food cache would be disastrous

Most people think it must have been boring spending 4 ½ months alone in a cabin. The reality is I was too busy just trying to cut enough wood to stay warm and skin the marten, fox or wolf that I trapped or shot. I was cold, hungry and exhausted most of the time. I never had the time to get board. Being a green horn at trapping I only averaged 1 animal a week and it was usually shot instead of trapped.

The first winter at the cabin.

As soon as I walked into the cabin I I knew I was in trouble. I did not have the 4-to-5 month supply of food I needed. I had a topo map of the trapping area only but did not have the maps to get me back to the road or town, Second lesson! Make your Egress plans ahead of time and have at least 2 good contingency plans.

Thankfully in the cabin there were two steel drums with snap ring lids that were full of dry goods and on the shelves were some cans of dried goods that were also still good. The following list is what was still edible in the cabin as best as I can remember

• 50 lbs Bisquick
• 50 lbs Beans
• 25 lbs Rice
• 10 Lbs Lentils
• 20 lbs Oatmeal
• 10 lbs Coffee
• 2 lbs black pepper
• 10 lbs Crisco
• 4 lbs Honey
• 25 lbs salt

The supplies along with a young moose I shot did keep me alive but it was no fun. I had youth and enthusiasm on my side and knew the situation was temporary. I decided to just make it a challenge and kind of live some of my grandfather's stories first hand for myself. I had in my pack 1 roll of toilet paper but there was none at the cabin

Third Lesson! Birch bark, snow or small pine cones work but make a very poor substitute for toilet paper. I also learned later that winter that at -40 your butt will freeze to a wood toilet seat in the outhouse. Make a toilet seat for the outhouse out of hard blue Styrofoam for winter will make using the outhouse less of a pain in the butt.

As fall quickly turned to winter the lake next to the cabin froze and the temp continued to drop. The high quality mountaineering boots I had used in the high Sierra mountains of California and Nevada were not anywhere near warm enough and did not have removable liners so the boots were hard to dry.

Forth lesson Pac boots with 2 sets of liners or bunny boots are must have items for cold environments.

Many times during the winter I could have shot Grouse or Ptarmigan If I had a 22 pistol. That would have added much wanted variety to the menu. The other problem I learned is if you get a wolf or wolverine in one of your traps a 30-06 blows too big a hole in the hide and destroys most of the value of the fur.

Fifth Lesson! a .22 rifle or pistol is a must have item.

After 2 months my clothes were in bad shape. Most Light weight high tech clothing used for backpacking or mountaineering is not designed for day to day hard use and does not hold up to rigors outdoor work for the long haul. High quality wool clothing does a lot better over the long haul and is not susceptible to melting next to a fire like nylon is. Yes wool is heavy and takes longer to dry but in my opinion for working in the woods wool is the way to go.

Sixth lesson ! clothing made for loggers, Surveyors and commercial fisherman may be heavy but it last a lot better than sporting gear. Filson is the best.

My diet was boring and I was always hungry after two months. I started getting sick and my teeth seemed to be getting loose. It finally dawned on me that I had no intake of Vitamin C. I may have had Scurvy. Remembering something I learned from my grandfather I started eating rose hips that were dried and still hanging on a few bushes near the cabin. Thankfully we did not have deep snows that year so I could find a few rose hips. I was lucky! Seventh Lesson! make sure you have a source of Vitamin C.

Every time I took my rifle inside the warm cabin it would condensate and the rifle would get wet.

Eighth Lesson If you bring a rifle into a warm cabin from a below freezing environment it will condensate, this promotes corrosion in addition the moisture in the bolt may be frozen the next time you are outside in the cold. If you do bring a weapon in from the cold strip it down, dry it and clean it. I left my rifle outside next to the door for most of the winter and only brought it in to clean. This would not work in a TEOTWAWKI so other tactics will have to be developed.

One morning there was a small earth quake that got me to thinking of my family and the outside world. Started felling very alone. Starting thinking what if the Russians had dropped “the bomb” I would not know it.

Lesson #9! Being able to at least hear what is going on in the outside world helps your mental attitude a lot. A radio to listen to the news was smoothing I longed for.

Snow shoes are easy to use and most anyone will figure them out quickly. When you are working on snow shoes you will fall now and then. Lesson # 10 tape the muzzle of your rifle to keep snow out of the barrel when you take the invariable header into the snow. I use electrical tape or put a condom over the muzzle of all my rifles in the field to keep everything out of the barrel. It will not affect accuracy unless you are shooting over 300 yards.

The winter was full of hardship and big education. I did enjoy it but given a choice I would not want to repeat that Winter. In the spring I sold my furs in Anchorage. The fur buyer could tell I had never trapped before as the way I had prepared the pelts was poor at best. I got .20 cents on the dollar for my pelts and I think that was generous on the part of the fur buyer. 4-½ months of hard work and after paying the bush pilot along with the money I still owed the trapper I would have less than $100. The trapper met me at the fur buyer after paying him for his traps he was now very friendly and asked me many questions. He encouraged me to go back for at least one more winter. He told me to go get a bath and haircut and meet him at the White Spot cafe down the street in downtown Anchorage and he would buy me a good meal. While eating he handed me a the following list

• 90 lbs bisquick
• 50 lbs Beans
• 50 lbs Rice
• 25 lbs Salt
• 25 lbs Lentils
• 20 lbs oatmeal
• 10 lbs Sugar
• 10 lbs lard
• 10 lbs powdered milk
• 10 lbs split peas
• 10 lbs Tang [freeze-dried orange juice powder]
• 10 lbs coffee
• 10 lbs noodles
• 1 case tomato paste
• 5 lbs strawberry Jam
• 4 lbs honey
• 2 lbs pepper
• 5 gal White gasoline
• 4 large boxes wood matches
• 24 large Plumber's Candles
• 8 rolls toilet paper
• 6 lantern mantels
• 7 Lbs Trapping wire
• Gun oil
• Trapping lures and scents

This was the list of supplies that the trapper had the pilot bring to the cabin each spring when the plane came to pick him up. This filled what would have otherwise been an empty plane. In early April the lake next to the cabin was still frozen so the plane would land on skis and taxi next to the cabin. The pilot and trapper would put the supplies into the cabin then the pilot flew the trapper back to town.

The Trapper then informed me that he had purchased the supplies for me and was having them flown to the cabin along with 2 more steel drums to safely store the supplies in.

The "Rifle and a Backpack" Myth

I often get a chuckle from people that think they can fill a back pack and head into the woods and survive long term with what is in a back pack. Until recently I spent most of my life guiding in Alaska and in Africa. I spent an average 110 days a year living out of a back pack under a tarp or in a pup tent, and another 180 days each year living in a remote cabins without electricity or running water.

In an uninhabited game rich environment with a rifle and only a back pack of gear I could survive for a period of time. How long could I survive? I do not know as there are too many variables.

What I do know is in the case of TEOTWAWKI where many people would be fleeing the cities and overcrowding the wild places looking for food I could not survive trying to live off the land with only a back pack full of gear. There will simply not be the recourses available. If a skilled person had no ethics they could take to stealing, looting, probably murder/cannibalism they might make it long term starting with only a back pack full of gear. For me and my family I believe in preparing now and stocking up while food and supplies are available and reasonably priced.

In the early 1980s I bought a lot of my supplies from a sporting goods/gun store in Anchorage. The store maintained an excellent inventory for hunters, trappers or survivalists. The store manager could talk the talk on both survival and hunting. One fall he hired me to take him on a 14-day bow hunting trip into the Alaska bush and film the adventure. He also hired a young guy that had just moved to Alaska from Georgia to help carry camera gear. I was concerned regarding the greenhorn from Georgia and even more concerned when I saw his marginal gear. The Georgia greenhorn however did fine and was a huge help on the trip. The trip however was a complete failure. The store manager had every neat gadget I had ever seen and many that I had never heard of. His pack was too full to carry any of the food or camera gear. He was out of shape and his pack was also too heavy for him to comfortably carry. After the float plane dropped us off on a high mountain lake we planned to walk for a week to my cabin hunting Dall Sheep on the way. Then at the Cabin we planned to hunt Moose and Grizzly. During the first 2 days the store manager left a lot of gadgets and some much needed gear on the trail to lighten his pack. I was stunned as I thought this guy knew his stuff but he was totally bewildered on how to apply his knowledge or gear in the field. One of the things I still clearly remember is he actually dumped all of his extra socks and his rain gear at the first nights camp. Leaving that gear behind cost him dearly. The Greenhorn from Georgia was a farm kid and was able to adapt to the Alaska bush even with his marginal gear and lack of knowledge of the Alaska bush. The store manager never made a single stalk on any animal as it became a challenge to just get the store manager to the cabin. By the time we got him to the cabin his feet were so badly blistered he could hardly walk and could not even carry his own pack or bow. This rambling story actually has a point. I had heard the store manager tell many people before our trip that with his properly equipped backpack he could easily survive in the bush indefinitely. My grandfather use to say: "Ignorance is bliss but it will not put food on the table."

My Second Winter

I still had a lot to learn but this winter was a lot better. First thing when I arrived at the cabin was to see that the supplies were all there and in fine shape. I also had topo maps and now knew 3 different routes to get back to civilization. It was at least a 2 week walk but I at least knew the routes to get there.

In a TEOTWAWKI situation if you are at your retreat in the winter you will probably also get into a routine. That could be both good and bad. Think security and mix the times up so ambush is harder for the goons to set up.

Winter set in, an in my second winter in the cabin, it did not take long to get into my routine. Every day starts the same. At approximately 6:00 A.M. The alarm clock goes off. What I mean the stove has only a few coals left and the cabin is freezing so I have to get up and stoke the fire. Then step outside into the extreme cold. Cut a log into rounds and this is done in the dark. Then go down to the lake still in the dark (batteries for the flashlight are too precious to waste and so is gas for the lantern) carefully chip the ice around each of five fishing lines with a hatchet. Pull up the hook hoping for a burbut (fresh water ling cod) reset the bait, haul water back to the cabin. If I had not caught a fish for breakfast then on the meat pole next to the cabin I used the saw and cut off a frozen chunk of caribou. Still dark and I am cold, step into the cabin warm up my frozen hands, dry my gloves and cook breakfast on the wood stove. Then put the dutch oven with beans, lentils or rice on the wood stove to rehydrate while I am gone for the day. Pack my lunch: two pancakes with a slab of cooked caribou meat in the middle, also put one tablespoon of tang into my insulated water bottle then fill it with hot water from the pot on the stove. Warm tang makes a nice mid morning warm up on the trail and is a source of Vitamin C.

As it is just starting to get light strap on the snow shoes and head out pulling the sled. If it has not snowed I can walk on top of the packed trail with the snow shoes on the sled.

The day is spent dragging the sled checking and resetting traps while constantly looking for a wolf, fox or wolverine to shoot. During each day I must also find a dry standing dead spruce tree to cut down and limb with the ax then using the sled haul it back to the cabin. Must always be on my main trail with everything tied onto the sled before it is completely dark. Days are short: the mid-winter sun is only up for 4 ½ hrs. I used my flashlight is only for emergencies.

Following a packed trail is easy in the dark just remember to get behind the sled on any downhill or the sled will hit you in the back of your legs and could break a snowshoe or your leg. Usually get back to the cabin long after dark.

Lesson # 11 Cross country skis are no substitute for snow shoes.

The snow shoes at the cabin were old and on the last legs of useful life. Instead of bringing a new set of snow shoes I had purchased a new set of back country cross country skis to the cabin. I thought I would use the snow shoes as a backup. Learned that skis are not as good to work on as snow shoes for doing chores or trapping. Skis have a place and can save time but are not a replacement for snow shoes. In snow country snow shoes are essential and skis are a nice luxury.

Each night when I finally arrive at the cabin I am tired and hungry. First thing is to start the fire then fix dinner. After dinner if I was lucky that day I can light the lantern and skin whatever I had trapped or shot after it has thawed. 9:15 PM is the highlight of the day! I get to listen to the AM radio for 45 minutes.

Lesson #8 and had brought a radio this time. Always hoping Caribou Clatters has a message for me from my family. Allow myself 45 minutes to read by lantern or candle light. 11:00 PM re-stoke the fire and collapse on the bed. The radio, dinner and sleep are the reward of a day’s hard work. Around 2:30 AM the fire has burned to just a few coals and I get cold, get up put more wood on and go back to sleep. The next thing I know it is 6:00 AM the fire has burned to just a few coals and it is freezing in the cabin and the day starts all over again.

Lesson #12 In a cold winter climate Use no oil in the bolt or trigger assembly of your rifle as it may freeze. I tried to shoot at a wolf (a wolf hide was then worth $450) when I pulled the trigger on my rifle it only went click. The firing pin would not strike the primer with enough force to set off the primer. After the second try and another click the wolf ran off and out of range. That was only an expensive lesson. In a TEOTWAWKI it could have been some one shooting at me and I would have had a useless rifle.

On my daily trips to check the fishing lines and get water I knew the ice was 28” thick and still getting thicker each week. A December day the temp was -27 F and I was crossing the outlet end of a small lake to check out some tracks. Not worrying as I thought the ice was 28” thick everywhere I fell through the ice and found myself waist deep in water. This was two miles from my cabin It was all I could do to make it to the cabin.

Lesson #13 any out let or inlet of a frozen lake may have thin ice also a warm spring or other things can cause thin ice. The fire was out in my stove and no coals were left. I had a very hard time getting a fire started and as a last resort used white gas and almost burned down the cabin.

Lesson #14 have the kindling and all the fixings of a fire ready any time you leave your cabin. You never know when someone may be at the end of their strength and need to get a fire going.

One evening in early January I returned to the cabin to find a note and care package on the table from the bush pilot. The pilot had brought me a bag of oranges, a fruit cake and a newspaper. He also left three letters from my family. It was if I had won the lottery

As the snow got deeper during the winter I started finding that many animals liked to use my packed trail. I learned never underestimate the danger of a moose particularly in the winter if they are on a packed trail they may charge you instead of going into deep snow. I had a cow moose chase me up a tree then stomp my on sled and break one of my snow shoes.

Lesson #15 Moose are dangerous, especially late winter

In early February I came across Grizzly tracks in the snow. I was shocked as I thought that bears would be in the den all winter. I followed the tracks and found the bear had made a moose kill.

Lesson # 16 Grizzly bears and black bears do not truly hibernate and may be out of the den during any month of the year. Over the years I learned if a bear is away from his den in the winter it will be hungry and grumpy.

As a kid I loved watching western movies. It seemed to me cowboys wore their handgun in a low slung fast draw holster and I thought that was cool. The western style fast draw holsters I tried in the bush were useless. I now see that some law enforcement and military teams are using a thigh mounted holster. I am not disputing the tactical points of that method but if you are working in the woods you will occasionally fall into snow or mud. That is when you want your hand gun in a full flap holster or in a normal holster worn under the last layer of clothing. Getting your hand gun into your hand fast is of no use if it will not fire when you need it.

Lesson #18 Select holsters that will allow you to comfortably carry your hand gun with you at all times and will protect the weapon from the elements. I have tried over 40 different holsters and method of carrying my handgun. I strongly suggest you experiment now on how to carry your own handgun. Find something that works for you. I presently use three different holsters:

• A holster that I use to carry concealed when I am in a city environment.
• A holster when I am working in the bush.
• A holster when I am flying float planes.

In March, the bush pilot landed on the frozen lake with 400 lbs of supplies. He helped me put the food into the steel drums for the next trapping season then flew me back to town.

I had spent 160 days alone in the bush trapping. I sold my furs to the fur buyer in Anchorage. After paying the bush pilot for the supplies and flights to the cabin and back I had cleared $2,700.

I learned a lot that winter and over the years refined the old trappers list to keep me well fed and a lot happier.

A More Complete Supply List

After my experiences the first two winters, I composed the following list. This is for one man for five to six months. It was refined for my personal taste and needs in the Alaska bush. The old trapper that I got my first list from made do with a lot less than what I took. This list is tried and true and not a just theory that someone made up. I had around 200 traps and ran the line on snowshoes, foot and skis. Cut my firewood by hand (no chain saw) and hauled my water from the lake in buckets. It was hard work 12-15 hours a day 7 days a week and I burned a lot of calories. Using the following list I ate well and always had plenty of supplies left in the spring:

• 50 lbs Flour
• 50 lbs Bisquick
• 25 lbs Pancake mix
• 35 lbs Sugar
• 50 lbs Pinto Beans
• 25 lbs Rice
• 40 lbs Salt pork
• 25 lbs Salt
• 10 lbs Dried prunes
• 10 lbs Raisons
• 10 lbs Dried apricots
• 10 lbs Dried apples
• 10 lbs Dried peaches
• 25 lbs Oatmeal
• 10 lbs Honey
• 2 cases Tomato paste
• 25 lbs powdered milk
• 15 lbs [canned] Butter
• 25 lbs Corn meal
• 25 lbs [canned] Cheese
• 20 lbs Spaghetti Noodles
• 10 lbs Crisco
• 15 lbs Hot cocoa mix
• 10 lbs Dried eggs
• 5 lbs Strawberry Jam
• 3 lbs Apricot Jam
• 2 boxes Pilot bread
• 1 gal Maple Syrup
• 180 Multi vitamins
• 180 Vitamin C
• 1 lb [powdered dry] Yeast
• 180 Tea bags
• 1 lbs Pepper
• 1 lbs
• Baking soda
• 8 lbs
• Dried onions
• 1 lb Baking powder
• 1 lb. Corn starch
• 24 oz Garlic powder
• 12 oz Vanilla
• 2 rolls aluminum foil
• 1/2 gal Dish soap
• 5 bars non-scented soap
• 36 Canning lids (to can meat if we had a winter thaw or for leftover in the spring)
• 8 oz Hydrogen peroxide
• 2 oz Iodine
• 12 rolls Toilet paper
• 2 Small sponges
• 2 Scrub pads
• 1 roll Duct Tape
• 4 boxes of wooden Matches
• 24 Plumber's candles
• 500 rounds .22 long rifle hollow point ammo
• 100 .308 ammo 125 grain hollow point varmint ammo
• 20 rounds .308 ammo 180 grain (for Moose or Caribou )
• Trapping license and regulations
• Hunting license, moose tags and caribou tags
• New snowshoe bindings
• 1 truck inner tube
• 3 New hacksaw blades
• 2 New Ax handles
• 8 Bow saw blades
• 36 oz Lanolin
• 6 Disposable lighters
• 12 gal White gas [aka Coleman Fuel]
• 12 Lantern mantels
• 6 oz. Gun oil
• Trapping Lures, urine and musk
• 10 lbs Trap wax
• 2 rolls Survey ["flagging"] tape
• 1 pair Heavy Neoprene trapping gloves
• 7 lbs Trapping wire( 50% 12 ga and 50% 14 ga)
• 50 ft Trap Chain #2 and #3
• 24 Links
• 24 Swivels
• AM Radio with 8 extra 9 volt batteries
• 8’ New stove pipe for cabin stove
• 4 Leather awl needles and 50’ waxed thread
• Extra shoulder straps for pack frame
• Extra hip belt for pack
• New lid for fry pan 14”
• 100’ - 3/8 nylon rope
• 12x18” glass to replace cracked window
• Personal items
• 1 Wool Jacket
• 2 Wool pants
• 2 Work pants
• 1 Pair insulated Carhartt coveralls
• 4 Pair work gloves
• 2 Pair heavy winter over mittens.
• Winter trappers hat
• 1 pair
• Pack boots with 2 sets liners
• 1 pair Bunny Boots
• 1 Wool sweater
• 4 pair long sleeved wool shirts
• 3 pair Wool long john pants
• 3 pair Wool long john shirts
• 8 pair Wool socks
• 8 pair Cotton socks
• 6 pair Underpants
• 1 Bible
• 2 flying ground school books
• 6 Short sleeve Cotton shirts
• Tooth brush
• Tooth powder
• 2 rolls dental floss
• Carried or in an external frame pack:
• 1 .308 rifle
• 1 22 pistol (Colt Woodsman)
• Rain coat
• Rain pants
• Insolite sleeping pad
• Sleeping bag
• 10x12’ and 4x8’ light nylon tarps
• Flashlight
• Flashlight batteries
• Binoculars, 10x40
• Green River skinning knife, caping knife, boning knife.
• Small stone, small file and small diamond steel
• Compass
• Topo maps 1:250,000 scale
• 2 Candles
• Matches in waterproof container
• Lighter
• Small cook pot with lid
• Water bottle
• 100’ Parachute cord
• Small First aid kit with Large suture needles and suture, in sealed pack
• Mini channel locks (Snap-on) used for sutures and other things
• Pack repair kit
• ¾-length Hand ax. (Estwing)
• Small shovel
• Bow saw with extra blade
• 1 pair wool socks
• Wire snares
• Fish hooks and line
• 25’ .042” stainless wire
• 1 lb Dried soup mix

I'd like to shed some light on what it might be like to move across an unfamiliar area without money or adequate supplies. This might come in handy when you have to bug out following a natural disaster or other societal disruption. It might provide tips on how to avoid apprehension or detection while traveling. In addition, it might help you in determining a place for your retreat and anticipating refugees. Finally it might prepare you for some of the emotional and physical stresses you will face if you find yourself bugging out.

I live on the US Mexico border and there is a constant flow of illegal aliens and drug smugglers passing through and around my city. I live in the busiest area for smuggling drugs and people in the United States. Being a Border Patrol agent I also have up to date information on the trends and tactics illegal aliens and drug smugglers use to avoid detection and move to the interior of the United States. I have also tracked and apprehended countless groups of illegal aliens and drug smugglers. I will try to pass on some of my knowledge of how these people move from Mexico to the United States.

Most illegal aliens are extremely poor and are willing to walk through the desert for days or weeks, sometimes with small children. There are exceptions to this; most of these are drug smugglers. They have plenty of money, support vehicles, scouts and communication equipment. My focus in this article will be aliens that jump the fence and walk across the desert.

They mostly move at night without flashlights. During the day they sleep in clumps of trees or rocks or in caves. They seldom travel alone. Most are in groups of two to twenty. The guides have developed networks of trails and hiding spots to move through the desert. Some larger groups have several guides with one or more on a high ridge top to provide information about the movements of the Border Patrol or other people that will inform law enforcement of their location. The guides use cell phones or two way radios to communicate. They guide their groups to water in cattle tanks or streams. The groups can go for days without eating. When we apprehend a group in is common for them to tell us about dead bodies they passed on their way. They also tell us of injured or sick aliens that were left behind. Most of the apprehended aliens ask for food and water right away. When we give them food they eat ravenously.

In most cases the guides follow natural and manmade landmarks. The most obvious are game trails and dirt roads. They also follow canyons, natural gas lines, electrical power lines, railroad tracks, rivers and fence lines. For example a group will travel 50 yards off to the side of railroad tracks in thick brush. (This might be a factor to consider when choosing a retreat location. You don’t want groups of refugees traveling near your retreat because they are following railroad tracks or electrical power lines.) They seldom travel on high ridges because our cameras and radar will pick up their movements. They usually walk down trails with thick trees and bushes providing cover. They like to move through deep canyons with sandy washes at the bottom. Many trails military crest ridges where our cameras cannot see. When they must travel through flat open areas they might wait for hours until all the Border Patrol vehicles clear from the area before they continue.

During the summer they travel at night because it is cooler. If they have enough water they will continue during the day and only stop when they absolutely have to sleep or if they get heat exhaustion. Heat exhaustion affects your judgment and can lead to heat stroke and death very quickly. The best way to prevent this is to get out of the heat, drink plenty of water and reduce your physical activity. For some reason people with heat exhaustion remove their shoes. It does not occur to them to drink the rest of their water. I once found an alien under a tree nearly dead with a full bottle of water. When EMS arrived they had to give him four IV bags before he finally had to pee. It just shows how heat exhaustion can affect your judgment. Another time we found an alien sitting up with his legs crossed in the middle of a paved road with his shoes removed. He died sitting there waiting for a car to come rescue him. He probably did not realize that the blacktop in the sun is one of the hottest places for him to stop.

During the winter they walk at night because it is too cold to sit still. When there is no cloud cover the temperature can drop well below freezing. We use long range FLIR cameras and thermal imaging to locate groups. These cameras show small changes in temperature and you can actually see the cold air collected in valleys on still nights. A cow or rabbit shows up as a bright white spot on the screen because it is so warm compared to the surroundings. When groups stop on cold nights they usually stop at the military crest of a hill because the air is warmer at the top of a hill. During the day they sleep in areas hidden by trees and bushes. They huddle together to keep warm and many of the women get raped or assaulted. We find the "lay-ups" littered with empty food containers, water bottles, clothing and backpacks. There are some lay-ups that are so filled with junk it looks like you stumbled onto a landfill. This is also a common area to find dead bodies.

Part of my job is to search apprehended aliens for weapons or drugs. I have noticed they all carry the same items with very little variance. They are all wearing two or more pairs of pants and several shirts. I assume this is to avoid stickers and thorns and to keep warm. In the winter they have three or more pairs of pants and long sleeve shirts, sweatshirts and beanie caps. Their clothing is almost always dark colored. Most of the clothing is cotton and is very worn out. I have never caught an alien wearing Gore-tex or down. I can count on one hand the number of aliens I have caught wearing gloves.

Some of them have backpacks with meager supplies of food and water. The food is usually tortillas, bread and sometimes canned food. I have also seen quite a few aliens with Pedialyte. Other items include a cigarette lighter, plastic bag with raw garlic, identification cards, money and toilet paper. I am not sure what the garlic if for, maybe to keep mosquitoes away. When I ask them they usually just shrug and say they eat it. Some carry religious articles like rosary necklaces or virgin Guadalupe candles. This always amazes me they would carry a 2-pound candle for miles when they could have packed more food or water. Other items I find but not as often include cell phones, kitchen knives, medicine and pictures of family members. I have never found a flashlight, multi-tool, compass, GPS, duct tape or other items usually associated with a bug out bag. Most of the backpacks are very poor quality with one or more zippers broken. You would be amazed at how they patch, wire and tie backpacks closed when the zippers break.

The water containers you could find at a gas station, anywhere from quart to gallon size. If the aliens do not have a backpack they carry the bottles in their hands. Sometimes they tie two of them together and sling them over their shoulder. Some of the water bottles are painted flat black so they cannot be seen at a distance. If I catch the group far enough north where they have refilled their bottles from tanks or streams the water is very dirty. I don’t think they have the time or perhaps even the knowledge to filter it through a shirt. I have actually seen tadpoles and small water creatures swimming in water bottles of apprehended aliens.

One thing I will never get used to is the smell of twenty people that have traveled a week through the desert without a shower. I have located and apprehended a group at night using only my sense of smell. I am not joking. When we pile them in our transport vans the smell is overwhelming.

Most of them are dehydrated and most have cuts and scratches. By the time we catch them the cuts are infected. I once chased a group through a field of jumping cholla [cactus] at night. When I caught them they were covered in cactus spines. They had no tools to remove the spines so they were using fingers and teeth to try to remove them. Twisted and broken ankles are also common. Many of the women are pregnant. If they can get into the United States to have their children then those kids will be United States citizens.

It is amazing how many husbands leave their wives and children behind when their group gets chased by Border Patrol. The hardest thing to see is finding small children that were left behind. One day we found a six year old boy wandering through the desert because he became separated from his mom the night before. If was cannot find the parents the children are returned to Mexico and will end up in an orphanage. This kind of thing happens almost every day.

Another time we found a guy wandering around and he was almost delirious. He could barley talk and looked dazed. When we finally got him back to our station he did not want to eat or drink. He just sat on a bench and stared at the ground. He later told us that a week earlier he paid a guide to get him and his wife and three year old daughter into the United States. Once he crossed the border the guide hit him on the head and disappeared with his wife and daughter. He had spent the following week wandering around looking for his wife and daughter. I think that under such circumstances I would be a wreck too.

Some of the lessons I have learned from them: You can do much more than you think you can with much less. Using guides in unfamiliar areas is very valuable to avoid detection but don’t trust them. Also carry basic medical supplies and drink plenty of water to avoid dehydration. Finally don’t waste your money and time on useless items. If you have never hiked a trail at night without a flashlight you need to try it. It is amazing how much you can see and hear when hiking at night. Stop frequently and listen for 30 seconds at a time. One night I heard a noise that was over 30 yards away from me. I judged by the amount of noise it was a group of people. I went over to investigate and was surprised to find a slow moving tortoise walking over dry leaves. It is amazing how much sound a person walking makes.

I also have learned by experience that certain pieces of gear are essential for my job. Some of these I would discard if I was traveling cross country in a bug out scenario. I think weight would be the primary factor. When I go out in the field I always wear gloves to avoid scratches and cuts on my hands. I also wear eye protection, even at night. I once saw an alien that had his eye jabbed by a branch at night. It was horrible. I almost always have scratches on my face from walking down trails with thorns and branches coming across the path. I never use a flashlight unless I am tracking, and then it is only briefly. I carry small electrolyte packets with me and plenty of water. I wear long sleeve shirts. I also carry a GPS receiver, electrical tape, pocket knife and plenty of extra ammunition.

I wanted to write something for the contest for other ladies with children were in the same situation with wanting to be more prepared but not having the means to do so like the books recommend. I've had my frustrations but I've learned and bought gradually and wanted to share. :) It always upsets me when I hear in the media or from people their point of view that people are helpless due to their income level. This is what I've learned so far, how to cook with wheat, stockpiling shampoo for very little and ways to acquire some supplies for a 72-hour-kit inexpensively.

1. Educate yourself! I was able to get every preparedness book I requested from inter-library loan. Now I have high speed Internet and there are so many videos on YouTube. I was interested in learning how to use wheat so this is my experience. :) There are so many other preparedness topics and skills on youtube and in books.

Long Term Preparedness - Using Whole Grains

2. Learn about whole grains and different ways they are processed. Learn about red wheat, white wheat, oat groats, buckwheat groats, rye, and barely. Learn about the benefits of milling flour at home. There are so many different types of beans to learn about too!

3. Find where you can make a small purchase of whole grains. You can buy a #10 (large) can of whole wheat and cracked wheat from online retailers. If you use an EBT (Food Stamp) card, try a health food store's bulk section. The point here is not to use a lot of money until this is an item you and your kids consume. You can learn with a small amount. :)

Try to eventually purchase wheat in different forms like whole wheat berries, cracked wheat , bulgar, whole wheat flour, and whole wheat pastry flour. Purchase items found at regular the grocery store too like oats, beans and rice.

4. Learn how to use your grains. Cooking with whole grains is a skill but it's not complicated. A simple crock-pot makes it easy to cook wheat and other grains. One of the best cookbooks that helped me a lot is "Cookin With Wheat" by Pam Crockett. You can use wheat in other ways besides it's flour form and baking bread. She has a lot of recipes that use wheat cooked in the crockpot in there. As far as using whole wheat flour, I found baking bread to be very time consuming but I always put whole wheat flour into prepackaged mixes like brownies and muffins. Make oatmeal cookies! Serve oatmeal for breakfast and try it with different fruits and nuts. Learn how to cook and season beans. Something simple like a ham bone gives them a lot of flavor. I use allrecipes.com for new ideas. I like that site because I can convert recipes for two people.

5. Once you are using whole grains, consider purchasing grain processing equipment. This step was a long one for me. It was four years from the time when I learned about using whole grain and wanting a grain mill until I was able to purchase one. The IRS made a mistake on a previous tax year and sent me a check with interest so that allowed me to purchase an electric mill. I have the Marcato Atlas Grain Mill/oat roller (it manually flakes grain) and the Wonder Mill (electric grain mill to make flour from the whole wheat). Both have pretty good resale value compared to the initial cost [if purchased used] on eBay if you ended up needing to sell it quick to pay a bill. I use the grain flaker to crack wheat and turn oat groats into oats. I use the Wonder Mill to make whole wheat flour.

6. Buy wheat in a larger quantities like 25 lbs or 50 lbs. At this point you will already be using it in your meals. You can do this from the same place you bought it in a small quantity before. Do this even if you don't have grain processing equipment but are cooking it on your crock pot. Look into buying other grains in the large quantities too like beans, rice and oats. Sam's club has the best price on Bastmati rice. Learn how to store food in 6 gallon buckets with a mylar bag and oxygen absorber. The same place that sells you wheat should sell 6 gallon buckets except for a health food store. I have not tried to pack my food like this yet but it's next on my list. :) There are some great videos on YouTube that demonstrate this. You can buy grains already packed like this. For some things like rice, I plan to pack myself with the O2 absorbers and mylar bags myself since it's more economical. (And sugar, too, minus the O2 absorbers.)

Long Term Storage - Healthy and Beauty Products
7. Combine coupons with loss leaders/sales to build a supply of health and beauty products like toothpaste, toothbrushes, shampoo, conditioner and shower gel every six months. I utilize the site HotCouponWorld.com (HCW). They have previews of ads for major drug stores. I don't get a paper or clip coupons. I order them from a clipping service on eBay. Ads of chain drug stores are posted in advanced on HCW so you can order your coupons in time. If you get too much you or realize stuff will expire soon before using it, you can always post it on Freecycle. I guess donating it to a food bank or shelter is ideal but they never have donation hours when I can get there. With Freecycle (search it on yahoo groups with your city name) someone will pick it right up. :)

Short Term Preparedness.
Inexpensive ways to get started on a 72-hour kit. There are some great PDFs on the Internet and checklists about 72-hour kits. These is a just a few low cost things to get you started.

8. Bags. If you don't have bags around your home to designate for this, buy some from the thrift store. There are a lot of varieties of backpacks and travel bags there. Be sure to check things like zippers and if there is any foul scent before you buy. I've had good success with bags there. You also want to buy a box of larger zip lock bags for hygiene items. Save some of your plastic bags from the grocery store too.

9. Documents & Notebook. Most banks offer free photocopying. Grocery stores have it for around 15 cents per page. Copy your ID, birth certificate, social security cards, bank account statement. If you don't have things things start to acquire them. There are many lists on the internet on what to copy for an emergency financial folder. Make a list of important phone numbers, addresses and account numbers. I keep a notebook with page protectors for all of my important documents. My experience with hurricanes is the phone was turned on before power. I was able to get many things done over the phone. Keep some pens and sharpies in there. You may need to write ID on yourself and your children. US Mail may come back before power and phones. You may be able to send a letter before you have phone access so keep some stamps too and a few envelopes.

10. Medication. Ask your pharmacist for an extra labeled bottle and stick a few pills in there to put in your bag. If you use a local pharmacy you may want to transfer a few days worth to a chain pharmacy like Walgreens, CVS, Wal-Mart or Sam's in case you had to leave the area.

11. Food. Stick food in there that does not need preparation. Make sure to eat this food every so often. See what your kids eat and what didn't store so well. My son loves pop-tarts but they crumble pretty badly. I prefer canned food with a pop top lid. We like those small 1 - 2 oz cereal bowls too to snack on. Granola bars with chocolate melt and are messy. See what makes you feel full or not too. One day decide to only eat what is in there. Divide it up into 3 and see if that third gets you and your kids past 2 pm or not. :)

12. Drink. If you have a small child, use some type of drink that they can open without assistance. If they can't twist off a bottle cap use a juice box they can puncture. You could also keep a water bottle that has been opened. Practice with them. I recommended stocking some Kool-Aid singles. In a situation where the National Guard arrives they give out a lot of water bottles.

13. Whistle and Poncho and [Mylar] Emergency Blanket. These are less than $2 each. Make sure your kids know how to blow a whistle. :)

14. Discounted entertainment. When school supplies go on sale pick up some for your children for your bags. I cut inexpensive notebook paper into origami size paper. You can get pens, paper, markers, crayons inexpensively before school starts. Keep the crayons in a ziplock because they can melt. Around Christmas time the dollar store has $1 chess boards, checkers, word searches, suduko, card games and coloring books. This cost more than a $1 but Rainbow Resource Center has some inexpensive instructional books by Dover about origami, drawing, and paper airplanes. I don't have a daughter to use them but I've seen paper doll books too. I buy magazines for 25 centers each from the thrift store for my bag. I rotate these every few months.

15. Bug spray and sunscreen. You want to store this separate from your food. I find this highly discounted at the end of summer. I live in Florida so this is necessary here. You may need blankets from the thrift store or inexpensive warmers instead. :)

16. Discarded CDs. You can use these to reflect light. [JWR Adds: Save those ubiquitous AOL CDs for use in various projects including mirrors for home security, and to glue together front-to-front, and -hang up on monofilament fishing line, to scare marauding birds from your garden.]

17. Chewing Gum and Hard Candy.

Some Lessons Learned

It now seems so easy but at first I had no idea about purchasing small quantities of wheat. I called some of the vendors and had no idea about small cans, had no idea the health food store sold wheat, etc. It really took me years from the time of learning about it to purchasing it because I didn't have the money for 50# and had no idea I could buy it in a #10 can or locally one pound at a time at the health food store. It would have saved me a lot of time had I known those things. I learned about 72-hour kits and low cost things from dealing with the hurricanes.

Here are three web sites that I found useful:

The Prudent Homemaker. I know Brandy from the internet and she eats from her food storage. The nice thing about her blog is she posts recipes that she actually makes from her food storage and garden. She is really talented in making the food look really nice too.

Filling Your Ark. I know Erika from the Internet too and she is just brilliant with food storage and everything else! The PDFs there are great too.

Crockett's Corner sells the Cookin' With Wheat cookbook and DVD. They are both so helpful to someone new to long term food storage like wheat. It's not just bake bread, bread, bread. LOL.

In Closing
My final thoughts are first don't be discouraged if you have to "use" your preparations too outside of a disaster like you need the food or hygiene items in your 72-hour kit or items in your pantry you bought extra of, for a short-term emergency. I've had to use ours so much and hindsight it's a blessing because I am more educated about what we will use or need. One time was this past January, I remember being so happy about all the canned goods I bought at a Sam's Club [warehouse store]. I was finally prepared again for a short-term power outage. Not long after that I was unable to work due to a short-term illness. So soon we had very little canned food left. I was so discouraged but now looking back I see what was left (that we didn't eat for some reason or didn't eat as much I thought we would when purchasing) and what to buy double or triple of when I could.

Secondly ,prepare to the best of your ability. It's now September and I still haven't been able to replenish even an extra one week canned food supply. Keep learning and educating your kids about self sufficiency regardless of what you can buy or not and you will make better decisions when you do have the means to make purchases.

Introduction

Imagine this situation: All of the media outlets have gone to commercial-free coverage. They are reporting that the Dow has dropped 2,000 points and trading has been suspended on Wall Street. The Chinese, along with other countries have transferred their reserves from the US Dollar. Oil futures climb $50 a barrel in hours. A national bank holiday shuts down the financial system on Main Street. Within 24 hours the grocery stores are cleared out of all food stocks. The gas pumps dry up in 12 hours. Trucks delivering goods are stuck at truck stops waiting on fuel that may not be available in days; 18-wheelers that have enough fuel to get back home are doing so, with the trailer left on the side of the road. Inner city areas are turning into war zones with looting and random acts of violence occurring between rival gangs. The Interstate System becomes a parking lot with the suburbanites trying to “get out of Dodge” (G.O.O.D.). With no more fuel supplies people become stranded and forced to flee on foot, with panicked people who are usually rational and moral, now acting immorally and irrationally; doing what it takes to get their family to perceived safety.

Moral of the story is simple – given an emergency where you will be cut off from the comfort of the complex supply chain, utility grid, and police protection, could you take care of you and your family? Could you do it for a week, for a month, or even a year?

I know this has more than likely unnerved you. Do not panic! Simple planning can help you get where you can take care of yourself and your family. We are going to try to guide you step-by-step in your path to peace of mind. Look at this plan as purchasing an insurance plan. You pay hundreds per month to insure yourself and your belongings, and investing in preparations may be the best policy you ever purchase. This will be covered in several areas:

• Money
• Food Storage
• Security
• Self-Sustaining Lifestyle

It may be advised to keep your preparations confidential. Use discretion as much as possible when you make your acquisitions. Also note that there will be some sacrifice in making your targets. The items we are suggesting to buy in this document are costly, but remember what we said earlier about this being an insurance policy for the safety and security of your household. Try to think of others that may join you if they are displaced by a disaster. We will cover this in detail throughout this work.

Money/Finances

Most of the families in this country are trying to figure out how to make ends meet in these troubled times. The first thing you need to do is do a household budget with your family. You should put a total of what is coming in and the fixed bills that have to be paid out monthly. Write out your variable expenses for six months and see what you can cut to contribute to your monthly “insurance” expenses. There are many plans out there to help you with this. There are many ways to cut corners; you just have to be creative. 25-50% of the “insurance” fund should be used to pay down debt, with the remainder directed at your preparations. Use one month’s “insurance” allotment to purchase 90% pre-65 silver coins, which have intrinsic value with the silver content in them, or 1 oz. silver rounds from a recognized mint.

Water

Water is crucial for healthy living and survival. 80+% of the human body is water and must be replenished regularly. I human being can go on weeks without food, but without water, a person will perish in days. Each person will need three gallons of water per day to stay cleaned, fed, and hydrated. Invest in a high-quality gravity water filter. The British Berkefeld or Berkey Light (starting around $200) is recommended for its timeless design and filtration level. Rain collection and other sources of water must also be considered.

Food

In today’s just-in-time society, our logistics system is so finely tuned that the slightest hiccup in the system could cause massive trauma to the supply system. 3 days of delivery delays could interrupt the system for a month. How much food should be stored in reserve? Well, as much as space in your house and your pocket book will allow. 60 days will be your starting point. Remember to eat the elephant one bite at a time. Allocate an extra $30 per week to your grocery budget. Sit down with your family and make a list of what foods they enjoy to eat. Make a menu and look at the ingredients needed to make the dishes. Create a special storage area in a closet or basement for food storage. When you go to the grocery store by double the ingredients and put the excess in your storage closet. Keep an inventory and check off items when you meet your goal level for that particular ingredient. A starter list is included in this work.

If you have the funds, try to stock your shelf with freeze-dried foods designed for long-term storage. These are items are pricey, but worth it on that rainy day. If you have a Mormon contact, you can go to the Provident Living centers to can food at a reduced cost compared to other commercial sources.

Two Month Supply for Two People of Shelf Stable Grocery Store-Purchased Foods:

Starches (daily: 6 servings, 2 people/60 days: 720 servings)
12 boxes (10 packets ea.) instant oatmeal (120 servings)
6 lbs. rice (120 servings)
8 lbs. pasta (120 servings)
3 boxes instant potatoes (60 servings)
60 cans starchy vegetables (beets, carrots, corn, lima beans, sweet peas) (180 servings)
15 lbs flour (for baking bread) (120 servings)
           
Vegetables (daily: 4 servings, 2 people/60 days: 480 servings)
160 cans non-starchy vegetables (or 120 cans veggies & 20 jars spaghetti sauce)
(artichokes, asparagus, Brussels sprouts, green beans, yellow beans, wax beans, mushrooms, okra, spinach, tomatoes)

Fruit (daily: 3 servings, 2 people/60 days: 360 servings)         
120 cans fruit (no sugar added)

Meats/Legumes (daily: 4 servings, 2 people/60 days: 480 servings)
30 (6 oz) cans tuna (90 servings)
12 (15 oz) cans salmon (90 servings)
15 (12 oz) cans chicken (90 servings)
15 (12 oz) cans turkey (90 servings)
15 (5 oz) cans ham (30 servings)
30 cans (or 7 lbs. dry) beans (90 servings) (kidney, navy, great northern)
           
Dairy (daily: 3 servings, 2 people/60 days: 360 servings)         
6 (25 oz) boxes non-fat dry milk (enough to make 12 gallons)
or 16 (12.6 oz) cans NIDO brand dry whole milk (can be found in ethnic foods section)
6 lbs. Velveeta cheese
12 (12 ounce) cans evaporated milk

Other: 
10 lbs. sugar
20 packages active dry yeast
4 (26 oz) containers salt
2 lbs. popcorn
4 jars peanut butter (40oz)
4 (32 oz) bottles vegetable oil
shortening
syrup/molasses/honey
jam/jelly
nuts
dried onions, garlic & other spices
large bottle of Multi-vitamins

Security

This is where people tend to get a little uneasy. Except for the sociopath and serial killer, humans instinctively do not want to harm their fellow man. However, in times where there are challenges, people will be likely divided into two categories:

1. Good guys that work with their neighbors and others survive
2. Bad guys that will do anything it takes to survive.

You must be prepared to handle the second group, either though evasion, repulsion, or attack. The only way to do this effectively meet this task is to arm yourself with knowledge and of course – the hardware needed for the job.

Firearms

First and foremost, firearms need to be looked at as tools. They can hurt you if you are not safe! Just as a chainsaw, ladder, or tractor, like all dangerous tools, firearms must be handled with respect, with all the safety guidelines followed. Firearm selection can be complicated, so here are some easy guidelines in selecting a firearm.

Calibers

Caliber refers to what round the firearm is chambered to shoot. It is recommended that you purchase firearms listed in the primary category:

• Rifle – .223; .308

• Handgun – 9mm; 45ACP
• Shotgun/Survival – 12 gauge;.22L

Secondary Calibers:

• Rifle – .30-06; 7.62x39mm

• Handgun – .40S&W; .357 Magnum(also shoots .38 Special)
• Shotgun/Survival – 20 gauge;.17 HMR

A lot of people who are new to firearms, or who have never thought of needing defensive firearms can get confused with all of the choices out there in the gun market. We will use the primary caliber list above as a starting point. If you own firearms, make a list of the caliber and type you have. Then inventory the ammo you have on hand for each firearm. Sell excess firearms that are not in the primary caliber list to create some extra funds to get what you really need in your defensive toolbox. Keep firearms chambered in Secondary Calibers as barter items or handouts to extra “help.”s

For those on a budget and new to firearms, purchase a used 12 gauge pump shotgun and a used .357 Magnum revolver from an individual if possible. Guns have service lives measured in tens of thousands of rounds, so it makes sense to buy used guns, to save money. Also, by buying used guns from private parties, in most states you can avoid creating a "paper trail".) Find a friend or coworker that is knowledgeable in firearms, do your homework, and get these guns first. The 12 gauge has quite a recoil (“kicks”) with heavy loads, but can be used on any critter with wings or legs (2 or 4); make sure to get a model of shotgun that can have an extended magazine tube installed on it. As for handguns, the .357 revolver is a formidable self-defense pistol and can also shoot the [less powerful and slightly less expensive] .38 Special cartridge. Make sure you also have a holster and some speed loaders. Along with 100 rounds each of Buckshot and .357 hollow points, purchase low-cost clay load 12 gauge shells for the shotgun and bulk packs of .38 and to inexpensively learn how to use your firearms. Practice safe use and handling of all firearms, and make sure all chambers are clear or cylinders empty while stored in a secured safe or metal gun cabinet. Always make sure a firearm is clear before handling, and not in the physical grasp of untrained/young children.

After you have your “starter” guns, make sure you have plenty of food for a couple months and water filtration, then start adding to your defensive tool box. Acquire firearms that are more suited for defending your perimeter and neighborhood. This can be pricey, but remember, you do not want to skimp on an item that might save your hide!

• Rifle – a rifle should be a magazine fed, self-loading weapon that can be easily handled and maintained by the individual.
• AR-15 Lightweight Carbine with M4 or Magpul stock
• 10-to-20 magazines per weapon
• Minimum 1,500 rounds of M193 ball per weapon
• Springfield M1A
• magazines per weapon
• Minimum 1,000 rounds of ball
• Handgun – Remember that a handgun is just to get you back to your rifle and to defend yourself in situations where a rifle is not appropriate.
• “Safe-acton" style in 9mm or .45ACP
• Glock
• Springfield XD
• Smith and Wesson M&P
• 1911 Variant in .45ACP
• Kimber
• Springfield Armory
• 50 magazine loads worth of ammo and 6-8 extra magazines per weapon
• Specialty – If you have the skills and the funds, it is wise to have a Varmint rifle handy for long range targets. There are many excellent choices out there, and is this is a custom weapon to the person; however, the author recommends .308 (7.62mm NATO) or .300 Winchester Magnum for the caliber
  

Equipment

You must have adequate gear to carry your extra magazines and survival gear. A plastic grocery bag just won't fit the bill. This is called load-bearing equipment (LBE). Purchase gear that fits you and your environment. Some manufacturers of high-quality gear include: Tactical Tailor, Spec-Ops Brand, and Maxpedition

24 Hour Kit – this is the equipment that is your base equipment you will wear while doing security patrols. It should sustain you for up to 24 hours in the field.

• Load Bearing Vest with appropriate pouches for your gear
• Rifle and 6-12 magazines
• Sidearms and 2-3 magazines
• Camelback hydration carrier – 2 liter
• FRS/GMRS Radio
• Survival Gear Pouch
• Gloves – Cold Weather and Heavy-Duty Leather
• Small Bible
• 24-hour food supply
• Water purification tablets/Water filter
• Mosquito net
• Poncho
• Gun cleaning kit (Otis Universal Recommended)
• 2 pairs of socks
• Camouflage bandanna
• Signal mirror
• Emergency blanket
• Small fishing kit
• Sewing kit
• Batteries
• Fire Starting Kit
• Matches in waterproof case
• Magnesium starter
• Starting Tender (dryer lint or cotton balls soaked in petroleum jelly)
• Camouflage face paint kit
• Knife Sharpener
• Quality surplus USGI pistol belt (usually attached to vest)
• Tactical Pistol Holster (optional)
• USGI Canteen (empty), with cover and cup
• Quality Fighting/Utility knife
• Quality LED flashlight with colored filters
• First Aid Kit

• Small or Medium Daypack or Rucksack
• 3 MREs or similar trail-type food
• Spare ammo
• 1 – Set of clothes (camouflage for your area)
• 2 – Black, Drab Green, or Brown T-shirts
• 6 – Pairs of Socks
• Toiletries
• Mess Kit
• Sleeping bag – Winter
• Poncho liner – Summer
• Entrenching Tool
• Plastic Bags
• Scenario Specific Equipment
• Advanced Medical Supplies
• Bolt Cutters
• Long Distance Two-way Radios
• Entry Tools
• Heavy Wire Ties
• Large Wire Cutters
• Rappelling Line and accessories
• Barter/Charity Goods
• Hatchet/Machete of some type

Make sure first off the pack you select fits you well, is durable (no Chi-com knockoffs), Drab in color (florescent colors and reflective stripes are a no-no). Make sure the straps are of modern ergonomic design and you have a chest and belly band the fits you will over clothing. The better the fit of the bag, the less fatigue you will endure.

Put your gear on and make sure it fits well. Go to a private location and test your gear out. Try to simulate being in the field. 99% of your activity in a disaster is gathering food and keeping yourself going, however you will need to periodically do a scouting patrol around your property to see what is happening, check on distant neighbors, etc. You need to make sure you can haul on your person every item you need to operate in the field for 72 hours.

Wearing this kind of gear around is very fatiguing. If you are not in shape now, you will get in shape when the time comes. Make sure you can eliminate weight at every opportunity. Examples include carrying hotel size soap bars or slices of soap instead of a whole bar; a lightweight one-man tent instead of a three-man tent; sawing a toothbrush in half; etc. Anything to lighten the load, do it.

Self-Sustaining Lifestyle

If you made it through this work so far without throwing it in the trash or deleting it from your computers, thank you. I bet the wheels are turning in your head. Do not panic or get overwhelmed. The point of this work from the first letter is to give a broad overview of what steps you need to take to become a more self-sufficient American. I know that the cost of items freak you out. Think about it as spending your money while it is worth something. A simple breakdown in the monetary system could invalidate years of savings. Make it where you are comfortable in the future and do not become a casualty. The biggest issue faced in a disaster situation is comfort. However, if you have a comfortable place to sleep, food to eat, and water to drink you will thrive in hard times.

Shelter

A survivalist thinks they will hit the woods and live off the land. A good majority of these people will not make it due to exposure and lack of clean food and water. A thrivalist makes plan A to go to the well-stocked retreat (which may be home) and ride out the storm. The thrivalist can also live in the woods, but it is strictly plan B. The best place to remain is in what you know intimately – your home and surrounding area.

Bug Out or Stay In?

This will be a difficult choice for you to make. This is strictly the opinion of the author, but you should plan to avoid major cities during this time of crisis. In other words, if you live in an urban/suburban area become good friends with someone like mind and a tank of gas away or if you live in the country, plan to stay in and make room to have extra permanent guests if a catastrophic event happens to our nation. Whatever choice you make, you will need more people than just yourself. You will need a team of folks to sustain your Area of Operation (AO). This is where the purpose of this document ends. You have to use the gifts God gave us – intuition, critical thinking, gut feeling, etc. – to plan out exactly what you are going to do.

Some suggested helpful links:

Survivalblog.com
Alpharubicon.com
Frugalsquirrels.com
efoodsdirect.com
Readymaderesources.com
Freezedryguy.com
AWRM.org

Sir,
First, as promised earlier I wanted to follow up and describe the kit I take with me on my trips. As I have mentioned in the past my job takes me overseas all the time, so for the past decade I have spent 80-90% of my time in third and second world countries. As a result the type of kit I take with me becomes important – it has to be packable and lightweight (especially now that the airlines are limiting you to 50 lbs. per bag versus the old 75 lbs. per bag). I have built up a kit that fits inside a one quart water bottle that goes in my suitcase whenever I travel. In the kit I have:

1. A folding knife (not a one hand opening one … just a plain old Buck style knife). When asked (four or five times in a decade now) I explain that this is for cutting my food.

2. A pocket knife (Swiss Army knife) [JWR Adds: Per FAA regulations, edged weapons may only be carried in checked baggage--not in carry-on bags,.]

3. A fork and spoon (titanium)

4. A small (AAA battery size) LED flashlight

5. Several packets of sugar free hydration mix

6. Water purification tablets and a water purification straw

7. A compass (Marble's Brand Pin On)

8. A waterproof container with matches in them (while technically not allowed I have packed them for years with no problems)

9. A length of 550 cord

10. A map of the region that has been waterproofed after various routes out of the area have been marked on it.

11. A waterproofed copy of my passport front page, driver’s license, and birth certificate, and contact number.

12. A couple of Krugerrands

I also have in the suitcase:

1. A small SW receiver (Grundig)

2. A first aid kit

3. A medical kit with various antibiotics, cold medicines, etc. in it.

4. A sewing kit (scissors come in handy and the thread and safety pins can be used for fishing)

I also use a backpack to carry my laptop and business stuff in. I have in the past pulled the hard-drive from the laptop and left it sitting there when I have had to evacuate. The survival kit goes into the backpack in this case. Just because the backpack is a 5.11 RUSH24, it has not raised any eyebrows by customs officials. In addition to this I have always carried a packable raincoat or poncho and a cold weather jacket in my suitcase along with a good pair of hiking boots and a couple of pairs of wool hiking socks.

Notice that other than the items in the water bottle, they are all items that one would use on a long business trip anyway.

I make it a habit to never pack and carry anything with me that I would not be willing to dump if the need arose.

I am sure this list will cause all sorts of heartache and discussion but I have used this kit or something very similar since I was a teenager (my father was posted all over the world) and unless we are talking about a complete breakdown of order it has enough in it that I can make it out of an area if need be.

Second, we are using this weekend as a chance to go enjoy the great outdoors and practice our load out at the same time. As mentioned in the past we plan on using a camping trailer to get out of our area if we are forced to. So this weekend (as we have in the past) we are practicing our load out and go skills. The kids look at it as a game, and now while the world is not as bad as it could be, we can survive if we forget something basic – and have time to add it to the trailer.

Third, when it comes to a bug-out many of us are tied to our computers and would want to take them with us. While I plan on taking one laptop with me if we ever have to leave our house (plus the K-12 educational CDs that we have for it) along with vital records, there is another way to keep your records with you. I have started to use products from a couple of different sites for many reasons – portability and security are chief among them. Portableapps.com allows you to load a basic set of applications onto a USB [memory] stick and use it in “stealth” mode on any computer with a USB port. This allows you to keep your records and a basic set of applications with you at all times (things like money management software and email are critical). I also frequent pendrivelinux.com and have a USB stick set up with a virtual linux image that allows me to do the same basic things as with the windows portable applications. I would urge you to set up several USB sticks like this so that you can get by with a single laptop/PC per family versus multiple ones. I also have the same sort of setup (using the windows briefcase function) for my critical business documents – while pulling the hard-drive does work this is a much cleaner solution.

In this way if I need to walk out of an area, a small USB memory stick is a whole lot easier to carry than a laptop. Plus with the large number of companies that are placing tracking software on your laptops these days, being able to keep certain things private has a great deal of appeal. - Hugh D.

Mr. Editor,
In his article "Surviving an Expedient Ambush Roadblock While Traveling by Vehicle", M.W. was incorrect when he wrote, "The lead vehicle should place their vehicle at a 45-degree angle to the direction of travel and the weapon system should then be employed across the hood so that the engine block provides a [limited] ballistic shield for those person(s) providing cover[ing fire]."

Do not stand leaning over a vehicle[, thinking that it will provide ballistic protection.]. At 200 yards .30-06 FMJ will penetrate 20 inches solid white pine. It will just as easily penetrate the sheet metal of a vehicle and you. See Hatcher's Notebook.

Have one or more shooters take cover in defilade in a ditch. If terrain permits, then have one or two take cover on a hillside so as to shoot down on the bad guys.

Remember:

A.) You cannot see through [most] concealment.
B.) You cannot shoot through cover.

BTW I saw a episode of [the television series] Jericho that showed the defenders leaning across cars. I wonder which idiot they chose for technical advisor. - Vlad

JWR Replies: I concur! To amplify on your advice: If you are ever in the unenviable position of being caught in the open, with only a car or truck to provide marginal cover, then make the best of it. Getting down prone will reduce your target signature by 80%. And if you have no available intervening terrain that will provide cover (i.e. you are an open, forward slope), then get as low as possible, positioning yourself so that both a vehicle wheel and the engine block between yourself and los hombres malos. Tires and tire rims are actually fairly difficult for bullets to penetrate intact with any regularity, so they too afford marginal protection. If you are returning fire from a prone position behind a car, keep in mind that it might suddenly take a 7 inch drop, when a tire is punctured, so do not put any part of your body under a vehicle while in the midst of a firefight.

1. Change the way you look at everything. Rethink your entire lifestyle.
2. Develop discernment about people.
3. When you invest, invest first in the right people.
4. Honesty, look at yourself, your strengths and your weaknesses.
5. Seek the counsel of others you trust.
6. Find like-minded people who can be part of a mutual support group and who you can cooperate with.
7. Find alternate methods for doing everything.
8. Develop an instinct for what doesn't feel right. No matter how good something looks or sounds on the surface, go with your gut feeling, with your instinct, with your intuition.
9. Eliminate non-essentials from your life. Eliminate all time wasters and money wasters, and things you don't need - i.e. clothes, furniture, junk, etc. Eliminate television from your life.
10. Simplify your lifestyle - learn to say 'no' to things or activities which do not make you self-sufficient. Learn to place
God and yourself, and not other people.
11. Develop physical, mental and spiritual disciplines.
12. Learn to treat everything as if it were irreplaceable.
13. Buy things that will last, even if they cost more.
14. Acquire tools that do not depend upon electric power.
15. Learn to spend time alone with yourself in total silence - think, reflect, reminisce, and plan [or strategize] in silence.
16. Learn to spend time alone with yourself and your family, apart from superficial entertainment and distractions.
17. Learn something from every situation you are in everything you hear, see, touch, or feel has a lesson in it. Learn a principle from every mistake you make, from everyday life situations.
18. Make sure your trust is in the Lord and not your own preparedness. Pattern your preparedness according to the guidance of the Lord. Listen to what the Lord puts in your heart - don't use only your
reasoning power.
19. Learn to enjoy simple pleasures from the smallest things - have measure of joy and happiness that doesn't come from creature comforts or entertainment.
20. Store up memories for times of isolation or separation from your loved ones.
21. Establish priorities for all of life [i.e. relationship, needs, present needs, future needs.] Set goals for areas you'll be proficient or self-sufficient in. Set a schedule or time line based on money and time you can invest in self-sufficiency.
22. Examine the concept of civil disobedience [from the Bible and history.] At what point should the people of Egypt have said 'no' to killing the male babies in Moses' day? At what point should the
people of colonial America have said 'no' to King George? At what point should the people of Germany have said 'no' to Hitler? At what point do we say 'no' to despots in our day - when they take
over money, our property, our guns, our children, our freedom? Decide what is your choke point - when do you move to civil disobedience? [For many throughout history - it was when evil
leaders handed down edicts that were directly contrary o God's Word or commands.] Don't set your choke point too early or too quickly, nor too late, nor never. Think through or calculate a
strategy - then never look back.
23. Learn to ask the right questions in every situation. [In 'Operation Waco,' nobody asked the right questions.]
24. Bring orderliness into your life. If you live in disorder it will pull you down, it will break your focus. Think focus versus distraction. Eliminate the distractions from your life.
25. Self-sufficiency [or survival] principles are learned on a day-to-day basis and must be practical.
26. Always have more than one way to escape, more than one way to do something. Have a plan B and a plan C.
27. Everyday life [and especially crisis] requires 'up-front systems' and 'back-up systems' if the first line of defense or 'up-front systems fails.
28. Real education [or learning] only takes place when change occurs in our attitudes, actions, and way of life.
29. Wisdom is making practical applications of what you know. It is not enough to know everything you need to know. It will only serve you and others if practical application is made of that knowledge.
30. Fix in your own mind the truth about your capabilities. In a crisis situation this principle will keep you from cockiness [or overconfidence] and will provide you with confidence.
31. Decide ahead of time before a crisis arrives, how you will react in a given situation so that you are not swayed by the circumstances, the situation, or your emotions.
32. Beware of being spread too thin in your life. Decide on the few things in life that you must do and do them well. Think focus versus distraction. Make sure that unimportant, non-essential distractions don't keep you from achieving your important objectives.
33. Learn to quit wasting things. Be a good steward of all that God provides.
34. Buy an extra one of everything you use regularly and set the extra one aside for the time when such items may be difficult or impossible to obtain.
35. In every situation, train yourself to look for what doesn't fit, for what's out of place, for what doesn't look right.
36. Teach your children [and yourself] that they are not obligated to give information to a stranger. You don't have to answer questions [not even to a government official] that are none of their business.
37. Sell or give away things you do not use or need. Consider giving away or selling 50% of your 'stuff,' [i.e. the non-essentials.] Simplify and streamline your life, lifestyle and possessions.
38. Find someone who lived through the Great Depression and learn from them how they were self-sufficient, how they made do with little, and how they found joy and contentment in the midst of hard times. An excellent book on this subject is We Had Everything But Money: Priceless Memories of the Great Depression.

- Don McAlvany, Editor, The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor

[Introductory note from JWR: I normally send detailed letter replies only to their intended recipients, but in this case, I thought that this letter was a great example of terrain and obstacle analysis,a s well as "outside the box" planning, so I'm positing it for the entire SurvivalBlog readership to ponder. Do you have similar plans for off-road mobility, and contingency plans, folks?]

Mr. Rawles,
A note for Diane about her relative living on-post at Fort Riley, Kansas: First thing to obtain if you want to bug out of Ft. Riley is to get a Kansas Atlas & Gazetteer map book from DeLorme. [JWR Adds: These books are a key tool for "Get Out of Dodge" (G.O.O.D.) planning. Get one of these for your state, and if your intended retreat is in another state, for any states in-between!]

I trained for some years on the Ft. Riley reservation, lived in Kansas and have canoed many streams in the area. I have these comments on how to get out of that location.

The Ft. Riley Military Reservation is bounded on it western side by the very large Milford Lake. The water body of this lake is 14+ miles long and has a wildlife area upstream that extends some 5 to 6 miles north to Boughton, Kansas. At Boughton you can access a good Highway that will take you to Clay Center then west on Highway 24 to get across the Republican river.
Only one road crosses the lake body proper at Wakefield [Highway 82]. The river running into the lake is the Republican River. It is runs through an area of heavy soils making the banks steep, the bottom of the river soft and the stream depth non-fordable. To ford this river channel without a bridge you would have to travel many miles upstream approaching Cloud County Kansas [county seat Concordia] where the river changes from a deep soil bed to a sandy bed. Even in this area no one crosses the river in a four wheeled vehicle. ATVs do, but it is just too soft and sandy. I worked for the Department of Agriculture in this area and am very familiar with the farm community and the river channel areas, as a hunter. The transition zone from solid soils to sand is rather mucky.
I have canoed much of the river from well above Concordia to near the lake. Other than the road crossing at Wakefield and the southern end of the dam where Highway 244 skirts below the dam the west side of Ft. Riley is only a restricted bug out route because of the few escape routes. Near Salina Kansas the is the junction of the Solomon River [consisting upriver of two large streams, the north fork and the south fork]; the Saline River and the Smoky Hill River. Saline is west of Ft. Riley. At Ft. Riley the Republican River joins this conglomeration of rivers that come together at Saline to form the Kansas, River. This river is big. You will not cross unless you can find a bridge. This river runs west to east for many miles and gets much bigger the further east you go. Bugging out south of Ft. Riley is possible only if the Highways are clear to get across this river system.
Consult your maps for details.

There are large tracts of land south and southeast of Junction City, the southern portal to Ft. Riley that do not have a fully-developed [typical Plains state township] mile on mile road grid system.
Why? It is range land supporting large ranches. The roads were never built on a grid in this area. It has restricted assess to state Highways and county farm to market roads only. Consult your maps.
Unless the major Highways are open to the south it is a restricted zone for escape some 15 miles south and 20 miles east due to the lack of a road grid system.

Yes, I-70 does run by the south. A good exit if it is open. To the east is the large metropolitan city of Manhattan. It is a block if you want to bug out to the east. North and further NE of Ft. Riley is the huge Tuttle Creek lake some 16 miles long with its accompanying wildlife land area extending another five miles or so upriver. It is a huge block to getting out east or NE. Only one road crosses the lake on the dam [Highway 13].

The only well developed open grid section of mile on mile of county roads and state Highways is north. The Ft. Riley Military Reservation is some 14 mile long to the north. There is a military road system through this area. This road system is accessible from the bedding area for troops on Custer Hill--or it was some years ago. Check this out.

The huge training area north of Ft. Riley is, or was controlled from a single building called "Range Control". The assignment and use of the training areas was scheduled from this area. They monitor the areas mostly by radio. My suggestion is to get a military map of Ft. Riley with the range control markings showing the designations of each of the training areas. They all have numbers.
Now, since I was there a large construction and upgrading has proceeded at the tank gunnery range. But in an emergency I would think military families wanting to exit through the training areas to Bala Kansas and Riley Kansas or to get to the Highway to Milford would be possible. [JWR Adds: It also bears mentioning that artillery range impact areas are to be avoided at all times, since they are often littered with unexploded ordnance (UXO). Most of the "back gates" of large military reservations are kept locked and often unmanned except during major field training exercises (FTXes). In genuine "worst case" times of Deep Drama, a large pair of bolt cutters may be an indispensable friend of last resort. Before taking such extreme measures, however, consider that cutting the last link on a chain on such a gate is a Federal crime! Bolt cutters are a crucial tool that every well-prepared family should own, for many purposes.]

Note: large areas of the north are tank training areas. There are trails there marked tank trail. Under no circumstances try to negotiate a tank trail in a civilian vehicle. You will become mired down in no time. I have driven M60 tanks and tracked bridge units all the way from the bird bath to tank training headquarters. Trust me on this. I have seen tanks mired down on those trails that looked like it was going to take an act of God to get them out.

Ft. Riley present a core of access problems anyone wanting to bug out from there. It is possible if you make a good plan. Have the maps. And please, in advance drive all the routes to familiarize yourself with them. Most of all explore the roads through the training areas. Visit Range Control and talk to the people there and get a map of the military reservation area. [JWR Adds: This can often be done on the pretense of scouting a hunt, since some military training areas are open for specific hunting seasons.] Make a plan! Cordially, - JWC in Oklahoma

James,
Good morning . I have a question in regards to bugging out. I have a niece stationed on Fort Riley [, Kansas] (the waiting wife of nephew in Iraq) that I was wondering how would be the best way to get their little family out of there in a bug out situation . We are retired AF so we could get on base and get her but what about getting stuck . I do not believe the hundreds of thousands of people stationed there are anymore prepared than the rest of the (sheeple ) around this area . I am going have a sit down talk with her today so we can come up with some kind of plan . Thanks, - Diana

JWR Replies: In situations like yours, I recommend that you help them to assemble Bug Out bags, and encourage them to do a "test run". After that, all they can do is keep their gas tanks full and be vigilant in watching news events and always be ready to "beat feet" on short notice. And, of course, be prayerful.

In the days following a societal collapse, there will be some people who will be on the move from where the problems exist to where they hope safety lies. There can be many reasons why people are on the move, and an equal number of reasons why someone else may wish to stop your progress. Getting on the move and out of a hostile area as early as possible in the wake of a collapse is a significant key to one’s survival, as well has having buddies to cover you during your travel.

The sooner you get on the road, the less your chances of encountering problems. A few people will recognize the early signs of collapse and get moving out of town long before traffic becomes a problem. Others will recognize the issue within twenty-four hours after the event takes place, and will be on the leading edge of the traffic during the exodus. The majority will not realize the seriousness until it is too late. These people will get caught-up in the traffic jam that will rival the exodus of Houston during Hurricane Rita, where I-45 and I-10 were packed full of cars stopped on the highway for 100 miles. Many people ran out of gas on the side of the road and found themselves without food or water since they had only moved a few miles in four hours.

You may be a well prepared family, but for one reason or another are caught on your heals when a collapse occurs. This leads you to stay put longer than you would have liked, but you have no better tactical choices but to lay low at home or work for a few days before bugging out. You do not want to get caught in a highway traffic jam following a collapse. If you get stuck, you will have to leave most of what you packed into your vehicle(s) and move out on foot amongst the thousands of ill-prepared people on the roads doing things they would never have considered during normal times.

Those who are forced to wait out the initial exodus and are moving out of urban areas several days or weeks after the collapse will have a higher probability of coming in contact with an expedient ambush roadblock, both in the city and on rural roads outside of small towns. An expedient ambush roadblock is one set-up in haste with readily available materials and personnel. There will be plenty of desperate people who were caught unprepared for such an event; their lack of morals and innate nature to survive will drive them to take from others, with deadly force if necessary. It is your job to protect your family and yourself from these threats, especially when on the move.

While traveling in a vehicle on the roads, you may encounter various types of roadblocks or ambush points. Some may be fairly elaborate, while others may be quite simple. All are equally deadly. The primary tactic you will need to thread your way safely through one of these expedient ambush roadblocks is what I call R.O.C.S.: Recognition, Observation, Covering Fire, and Speed.

Recognition:

Recognizing that something you see ahead is a potential ambush site is the first key to success. An ambush site can appear as a traffic accident (as illustrated in Patriots), a fallen tree near or on the road, abandoned/broken down vehicles, anything blocking all or part of the road, detours, refugees, high ground on one or both sides of the road, bridges, and anything that looks like it does not belong on, or near, a road. These are the types of expedient ambush sites that someone may quickly create in the days following a societal collapse. It is up to whomever is leading, to recognize that a potential exists and to move into the observation phase.

Observation:

Once you recognize a likely ambush point (LAP), you have two choices: divert your course and completely avoid the circumstance, or observe and evaluate the site. You can either stop well short of the potential ambush point and observe through a scope or binoculars, or have a passenger continue to observe while on the move. Observation is a form of Intel. Look for signs of movement, or things that seem out of place. Reverse what you see and put yourself in the place of the ambusher. Where would you hide? How would you set it up? How many people would you need to pull off an ambush? What weapons would you use? What tactics would you employ? What is your end game?

At this point, you need to determine if what you see is worth the risk of approach or if you need to turn around and find a different route (if possible). Anyone traveling with you should also evaluate the situation and help with risk assessment. Once a decision is made to approach and pass the observed site, cover[ing fire] is needed.

Covering Fire:

This is a two or more person/vehicle job. This means that if it is just you, your wife and the kids, that you need to move out of town in two vehicles. Hopefully you have friends traveling with you to a new location who also have a vehicle and weapons. For [overwatching] cover[ing fire] during the operation, the lead vehicle stops at a distance from the LAP that is within the range of the weapon being employed. For most weapon platforms a good distance is 100-300 yards. This ensures accurate shots and plenty of ballistic energy. The lead vehicle should place their vehicle at a 45-degree angle to the direction of travel and the weapon system should then be employed across the hood so that the engine block provides a [limited] ballistic shield for those person(s) providing cover[ing fire].

The trailing vehicles should move past the lead vehicle with Speed. Once beyond the LAP, those vehicles stop and provide cover for the other vehicle(s) yet to pass through the site. Again, the vehicles that have already passed the LAP should stop within range of the weapon(s) being employed and turn their vehicles 45-degrees to the road and take personal cover behind the engine, covering the passage of the trailing vehicles.

[JWR Adds: The concept of covering fire is actaully better termed suppressive fire. The term "cover", properly, only applies to barriers that provide ballistic protection to those behind them. So "covering fire" does not provide cover, nor concealment, only supression!]

Speed:

Passing through the LAP with adequate speed, and setting up a covering position on the far side for the trailing vehicles as fast as possible is key to minimizing exposure for all concerned. You do not want to drive so fast that you could lose control of your vehicle if you suddenly had to swerve or take significant evasive action.

Having short-range communications for these types of situations is also a smart idea. This can be done with CB radios, or inexpensive GMRS/eXRS two-way radios. Radios will be especially helpful during nighttime operations of this type. When the lead vehicle can communicate to trailing vehicle(s) that there is a LAP ahead, this can start a desired chain reaction that can significantly increase the odds of surviving one of these situations. Communications can also be an aid when the lead vehicle passes an unseen ambush point and can radio a warning to following vehicles, which can immediately render covering fire and/or take evasive actions.

The following is a fictitious scenario using all of the aforementioned, with three families in three vehicles approaching a potential ambush site seen from one mile away. The cars are traveling 200 yards apart. (After the SHTF, when traveling by foot or vehicle, travel should always be conducted in tactical columns, where a specified distance is maintained between people or vehicles. Staying too close together and/or tailgating are unacceptable risks after SHTF, when traveling.)

Lead vehicle (vehicle 1): “LAP ahead, one mile”

Trailing vehicles stop in place, while vehicle 1 moves forward another 1/2-mile and evaluates the LAP. The lead vehicle stops and uses 10x50 binoculars to scan the area. No movement is noticed, but it looks like a large tree was dropped across one lane of the highway. The base is obviously recently cut, and there are no other dead trees nearby. The leaves still have a greenish tint and have not yet browned, but are wilted.

Lead vehicle radios the trailing vehicles: “No movement seen, there is a way past the LAP on the opposite shoulder and grass. Watch the tree line on the right side of the road. Lots of dense cover there. We will move ahead to 200 yards and set-up.”

The lead vehicle approaches slowly to within 200 yards while the trailing vehicles move to within ½ mile away. The lead vehicle stops in the road and turns to 45-degrees to the direction of travel and both occupants exit the drivers side and set up across the hood with their AR-10 rifles with ACOG scopes.

Lead vehicle radios the trailing vehicles: “Go!”

The first trailing vehicle (vehicle 2) gets up to speed and approaches the LAP while the lead vehicle continues to scan the LAP through their scopes, ready to fire upon any threat. The vehicle passes the LAP with no problems and goes 200 yards beyond and sets up an overwatch position on the other side, careful to orient themselves so as not to fire upon the vehicles on the other side. They are covering with scoped AR-10s scanning the LAP.

Vehicle 2 radios: “We are through and set up. Go!”

While vehicles 1 and 2 maintain covering positions, the last vehicle (vehicle 3) gets up to speed and starts to pass the LAP. As they do so, gunfire erupts from the tree line (in this instance, the ambushers were caught unaware by the first vehicle and were alert when the next one came through.) Vehicles 1 and 2 open fire on the tree line, while the passenger in vehicle 3 opens fire while passing the ambush. Once beyond the ambush point, vehicle 3 sets up 220 yards on the other side of the ambush to the rear and right of vehicle 2, and provides covering fire along with vehicle 2.

Vehicle 3 radios: “We’re set. Covering. No fire from the trees. Go!”

Vehicle 1 remounts and charges through the ambush point with no gunfire coming from the tree line. They drive beyond the other two vehicles and all personnel remount their vehicles and resume their travels.

At this point, it would be wise to find a secure place to stop and evaluate your persons and vehicles. You don’t need to stop all jumbled together, especially if there is more than one person per vehicle and everyone has a radio. Each vehicle stops a couple hundred yards apart and while one person provides cover, the other goes over the vehicle and passengers, looking for trouble.

You would want to check the tires, engine soft points (hoses, belts, etc.) and look for leaks (anti-freeze, fuel, oil, hydraulic fluid, etc.) Be sure to check each other carefully as adrenaline will be high and a person who has been shot or injured may not feel a wound at this point. Address any issues as quickly as possible and continue moving.

Other Considerations

Stopping to evaluate and/or cover a position may not be advisable in some circumstances. You do the best you can at evaluating while on the move, radioing your findings to your travel companions, and then pushing through. This is where speed comes in to play. The faster you can get through the LAP the better your chances of survival. Your passenger (if you have one) helps with navigation, assessing threats, and provides cover during the encounter.

Choosing weapons is always a difficult decision, especially if you are going to be defending your life with them. For situations such as the one presented above, the longer the effective range of the weapon, the further away you can stay from the LAP, increasing your chances of survival. You must also consider that just because you can easily shoot a M1A or even a .50 Barrett, your wife or teenager may not be able to adequately handle such a weapon in a life-or-death cover fire situation. [So a .223, 5.45x39, or 7.62x39mm rifle may be more apropos.]

Having a scope on your weapon will also increase your shot accuracy and your ability to observe the area for movement while your weapon system is employed. We all want to be accurate with open sights at long ranges, but if you are trying to hit the small exposed body part of a person behind cover at 250 meters, it is easier to find the body part to shoot at with a scope. People do not always present themselves as a nice squared-up silhouette like at a shooting range. When your target has taken cover, you may only get to see the top of a head, or part of an arm or leg. Putting a bullet in an extremity might not kill them, but it may take them out of the fight.

For night operations, having some form of night vision technology could become critical. These systems allow you to see through the darkness and into the darkest of shadows. Generation I systems are only adequate to about 50 meters and cost under $200. Generation I+ systems have a little more clarity and cost $300-500. Generation II and II+ systems can now be had for less than $1,000 new, and can be found cheaper from time to time in the used marketplace. These go up to $3,500 depending on features and manufacturer, and have a range from 100 to 200 meters with quite clear optics for the price. Generation III night vision has come down quite a bit and can be had for $3,500-$5,500. Personally, I cannot see enough difference between quality (with the exception of extended recognition range) of the Gen II and Gen III night vision to compel me to spend the extra $2,500+. There is also "Generation IV" night vision, which I know very little about. Prices seem to be in the $4,500-5,500 range. A Gen II, III, or IV night vision monocular could be a life saver, especially if you can get one that comes with an optional weapons mount.

Good Morning!
Thank you for the info you provide for all of us in your web site. I live in the Kansas City Area in a beautiful suburb which is one of the nicest cities in the country. till doing okay in the depression too. My work is secure and I do well and I own my own twp-story with basement frame home and have been making it a retreat for the past five years. I have no debt and am 60 days ahead with my mortgage and insurance and utilities. Am I absolutely crazy to try to stay here when things go bad?

First, let me tell you what I have done. I have a new roof ,which is fireproof. I have two large fire extinguishers in each room and more in the basement and garage and attic and I have a 2-inch fire hose with Honda generator to pull water from my 2,000 gallon swimming pool/fountain as well as from my 2,000 gallon [combined capacity] plastic tanks under the deck. Yes, they will freeze in the winter so I may add a new tank in the basement. I have 100 50-pound bags of sand which can also put out fires [and double as ballistic protection].

I have a strong 7' wood cedar privacy fence around my back and side yards and I have landscaped them such that it is difficult to see into my yard from any point but still need to add a few more tall bushes to screen my home. I brought in 80 [cubic] yards of great topsoil for the backyard to level it and to add garden areas so I can grow lots of food. I have a gutter system hooked up to the water storage and I have 3 months of water stored now in the basement and when the time comes new 55 gallon water barrels with hand pumps will be in each of my 4 bath rooms and kitchen. There is a pond and active stream 200' from my home and 5 of my neighbors next door and up hill from me have large swimming pools that I can siphon water from. I can produce clean water for 25 for 20 years with my water filters. So I have five ways to get water when the tap stops running.

I can feed my family for more than five years and then grow food too. I have all the stuff you buy in the stores weekly. I can grow food inside or outside and in a greenhouse too that is next to the house which can be heated with the natural warmth of the earth /basement and wood-burning stove, and sunshine.

We can protect ourselves better than anyone you might know, night and day. I have tried to set up my perimeter in my yard using the fence and bushes and trees and berms, etc. without anyone seeing the difference so that a stray bullet or two will not hit us easily. I will build gravel plywood walls in key places inside when TSHTF to reduce stray bullets. My fireplace is 5' x 5' x 4' deep so I can burn 4' foot logs and keep half my home warm and the firewood is placed outside on the side yards to slow down a bullet or two. The fireplace outside is 10' wide and goes above the roof. I have a wood stack 10 yards long, half of it is 4' long wood. I built a barbeque grill/water fall/pool that is solid 12' concrete that works well to stop bullets and it is 20' long and 8' high and looks really cool too.
In my basement I am finishing I added some 12" concrete walls to also give more strength to the floor above and to
slow down a bullet or two.

There are thick forests within 200' of my neighborhood to hide in if necessary and they run the stream for 50 miles. I have a nice "wine room" that is built to Joel Skousen standards [per his book The Secure Home] just in case the web bots are right and we have a problem with radiation.

I may have missed to say a thing or two but have been through others check lists to cover it all.

Can I make it in the city? Or do I want to be a refugee or try to live with friends four normal driving hours away without my stuff?

Thanks, - B., Near K.C.

JWR Replies: Your preparations are excellent for someone living in the suburbs. I believe that your plans to stay in place will probably suffice for all but a true worst-case scenario. But it is important to get to know your contiguous neighbors well, including the neighbors behind your back fence. Having neighbors that you know on a first name basis, and that you can trust in times of Deep Drama will be crucial in the next decade. At present, my best estimate is that we will likely experience an economic depression that will be on a par with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Crime will be rampant, and you will need to institute a Neighborhood Watch on Steroids. That necessitates solid familiarity and trust.

Attached greenhouses are wonderful for situations where there isn't much home invasion crime, but they are a huge security risk in inimical times.

I recommend that you hedge your bets by pre-positioning some of your supplies with your friends, in anticipation of worst-case grid down collapse, where the municipal water will not be available. This is not a major issue for you, since you have an abundance of stored water, and rainwater collection system. But "grid down" will be a true disaster for your neighbors within just a few days. They will likely abandon their houses, leaving you by yourself to defend against large numbers of very desperate looters. You mentioned that you have a five year food supply --which is quite commendable--I'd recommend that you store up to half of it with your friends in the country. Keep in mind that you may only have the opportunity to make one trip Outta Dodge, so it is important to have some crucial logistics stored at your backup retreat.

Hello Mr. Rawles;
I just found your blog site and have not read all the postings yet. One thing I have not seen is a go bag for the dog. If one has a purse mutt, a carrier with supplies is one thing but if one has a real dog that is a part of the pack (family) then a go bag for the dog is a good idea. We have a German Sheppard and she can carry her own food and water in a doggy backpack. Doggy backpacks can be found at places like Campmor.com. [JWR Adds: Dog Backpacks are also available from Amazon.com, and several other online vendors.] I would train the dog to use it before the need arises. It probably is a good idea to get a collapsible dog travel bowl as well for the water as most dogs would waste a lot of water drinking from a bottle. I have seen these fold up travel bowls for sale at Wal-Mart. In real cold areas a dog coat is good if your dog is mostly an indoor dog as they are not acclimated to the cold. Even if they are, in some areas it can get real cold outside at night. We bought our dog’s coat at LandsEnd.com. It was on reduced sale. [JWR Adds: Foul weather coats for dogs are are also available from several other online vendors.] I would think that boots for dogs would be good to save their paws from the cold or even hot pavement or maybe broken glass or other such hazards during an evacuation. Again if you use these you must train your dog to accept them. [JWR Adds: In my experience, most dogs have difficulty adjusting to using boots, and most of the available brands don't fit well and have a tendency to slip off. A far more practical solution is to use a wax-based cream, such as Musher's Secret on your dog's paws.] Campmor also sells a roll up dog bed/pad that can provide thermal cushioning or you could use a piece of ensolite pad. If you take care of your dog they will live better and longer and be a better companion and protector for you.

Thank you for helping to make people aware. Best Regards, - Glennis

JWR Replies: Those were great suggestions. In my opinion, the other items that you should put in your dog's pack is a pair of Tick Tweezers, and a sealed bottle of a strong flea and chigger repellant. Carry it in three thicknesses of Ziploc bags, just in case of leaks.

Hello Jim and Family,
As a former whitewater canoeing instructor (yeah, I know - but I passed my psych evaluation) I found the recent post on traveling on water to be both enjoyable and thought provoking. I would like to add, however, that all (personal flotation devices (PFDs) are not alike. It seems that in all parts of the country, commercial rafters are in business and (for the most part) guiding people safely down some mild whitewater experiences. Occasionally, and also tragically, deaths occur when people are thrown from a raft in perfectly survivable conditions. WHY they didn't survive has to do with a multitude of factors, clearly, but there is just no excuse for the sorry excuses for PFDs these commercial rafters use. The rules and regs are not at all onerous to deal with, and any old type II life vest that is coast-guard approved is what most people put on. These vests are considered "flat water" vests for conscious swimmers. The only kind of vest I would use in whitewater would be a or Type V, depending on the severity of the whitewater I might use a type III. Type I's do not have a collar system, they are just "mae west" type vests that are patterned after the old WWII vests our servicemen wore. You can slip out of a type I too easily IMO, and it does not have an active system to keep a swimmer's head out of the water.

The question should be asked? "What makes whitewater - white?" I don't believe that people think much on this question, and they really should...

The answer? Air.

When water falls over obstacles at speed, turbulence causes air to mix with the water, it essentially decreases the ability of a person to float, you can't really swim in whitewater either, because you're arms and legs are just beating at air. Very turbid water is nearly impossible to float in. Even wearing a type V doesn't guarantee that your head will be above water. A typical type II vest has 15.5 lbs of float for the adult version, and 11lbs for a child version. A type I has a minimum of 22 lbs of float, but they are not well-liked by people who have to paddle. Specs have changed over the years, and type I's used to have sealed pockets around kapok - get a hole in the pocket and you lose flotation for that pocket. They are also bulky and cumbersome to paddle a boat in. Do not use a type I if you can help it, if you must use a type I - than make sure they use closed-cell foam inserts rather than sealed compartments. Type Vs start at Type I specs for flotation, 22lb, but generally range in the 28lb rating area. The other important difference is that the type Vs almost always have flotation collars - meant to help keep the head shielded from rocks and keep it erect during possible unconscious conditions. In Colorado we've recently had a spate of deaths of fully-capable adults who had been thrown from a commercial whitewater raft. I checked, and most of what they had were type II and type III PFDs (same rating, almost, as the type II).

The whitewater rafting companies going through the Grand Canyon all use type Vs. I've seen some guides in the canyon wear a type III, and a type V over it.

If you're going to use water to egress, and you might have to traverse whitewater - you really need to consider what PFD you select. They are not equal in quality or versatility, and if you live by the "always bring a gun to a gunfight" mentality, whether or not you are going to wear a PFD that will actually save your life should be an easy question. You will never, ever regret having quality gear when you need it - when your 12 year old child is engulfed by a river while wearing the bargain basement PFD you "found" at a surplus store - you'll appreciate any time you spend in selecting a good vest. - LDM in Colorado

JWR Replies: Thanks for that reminder. As your children grow older, be sure to get progressively larger life vests for them. You can even get a K-9 PFD Life Jacket.

Often looking into the past can help solve new problems. If roads become unusable for travel, or vehicles are not available we must start looking at new solutions, or old ones in this case. Paved roads as we have today are a fairly recent innovation. Even 100 years ago very few were paved and often subject to damage by rains, floods, and environmental conditions. Winding cattle trails, wagon tracks, and horse paths were the main travelways on land. And today's roads can easily become dangerous and impassable during bad weather, earthquakes, and mudslides. But there is an alternative for almost everyone. Water! The continental US has numerous large rivers that for the most part are very navigable. There are also large chains of lakes that offer great travel options. If you look at any map of the US you will see larger cities and towns close to rivers and lakes. This is because [in the 19th Century] traveling by water often made more sense then by land, and trade routes and communities grew up around these waterways.

Traveling by water offers many challenges. The first being what type of craft to use. There are many commercially available sizes and styles and each is well suited for many applications. But lets look at it in terms of power. There are engine powered and non engined powered. Basically powerboats have some type of engine to provide propulsion. They can be gas, diesel, or electric motor powered. These can include shaftdrive, inboard/outboard, outboard, and jet drive, and typically are the faster and more powerful of all types. Sailboats and pedalboats are examples of non engine powered, and of course canoes, rafts, and kayaks are examples of human powered. Each type has advantages and drawbacks. Engines need fuel and maintenance but provide power for speed and moving heavier loads. A larger boat with no gas to run the motor is useless. A canoe can be used in shallower water, but usually can't hold more than a few hundred pounds of gear with two adults in it. Sailboats need more room to be effective in tracking the wind and maneuvering, but don't need fuel to move. So as with any piece of equipment assessing your needs will be crucial to picking the right boat.

In a situation where overland travel is limited, looking at waterways is the best alternative. You need to identify what travel routes may be in your area and start compiling maps and information on them. Water always flows downhill and depending on what side of the mountains you are on will greatly influence the direction they will flow. For example in my area of the southeast we have the bottom portion of the Appalachian mountain range. And there are rivers that flow from the center of the state all the way to the Atlantic Ocean and there are others that begin a few miles away that head all the way to the Mississippi River. The East Coast has the Intercoastal Waterway that is actually an inland series of interconnecting flows that you can travel North and South over the majority of the coastal US without getting into the open ocean. The Great Lakes have always been used as trade routes throughout the midwest and many areas of the lakes are still used to transport goods. Having the maps and information on dams, locks, and other travel hazards will be invaluable.

Once you have identified your waterways you can begin to decide on your craft. With so many variables I am not able to give you more than my own choices and reasoning in hopes it will give you a start in figuring out your own solution. I currently have 6 options for water craft. With a healthy interest in sport fishing I tend to always have several boats available to me. I first researched my local waterways. I have access and experience on the Chatahoochee River, and the Coosa River, as well as the Savannah River and Ogeechee River here in Georgia. I also have a boat stored on the coast for offshore fishing on the few weekends I'm able to get away. I have been fortunate to have canoed in a major body of water in almost every state from Maine to Florida on the east coast so there are many other rivers, lakes, and creeks that I am familiar with but the main ones for travel for me are decided by proximity, size, direction of travel, and ease of navigation. For example the Ocoee River in Tennessee is a superb white water river and is a blast to play around in a kayak, however it is limited in travel due to difficulty and the dams that control water flow. So for distance travel or to navigate it with a skiff full of supplies would be impossible. You want to find wider slower moving rivers as these will allow better navigation with a loaded down boat. For these rivers a wide bodied canoe is invaluable and can carry quite a bit of supplies. Also on many rivers there are long wide stretches that have very slow moving water and can actually be paddled upstream with little effort and can provide travel in both directions. I have two kayaks, two canoes, one john boat, and one 21' offshore center console fishing boat. The offshore boat has a full compliment of safety gear and survival supplies. The reason for this is because getting in trouble 60 miles offshore is not the place to wonder if you packed some extra water or food, or is that pair of pliers in the tool kit or not. So that boat is fully equipped at all times. However with 250 miles of travel to get to it I spent more time preparing gear for the other boats. The kayaks are good for quick maneuvering or scouting ahead of a larger boat. My two oldest kids are getting better paddling the canoes and the three younger ones can ride in the john boat with the supplies. I have added two electric motors with 50# thrust and 1 deep cycle marine battery for each one. These have been fitted to fit the canoes and the john boat. I have added a solar recharger for the batteries. And have an additional jump pack for emergency power. The john boat is 18' and is a shallow draft with fitted oars for maneuvering down river. This set up of "scout" kayaks, "transport" canoes, and a "storage" john boat, will in my opinion maximize my travel options while still being able to transport my large family with less effort than overland travel. I am only a few miles from a river large enough for me to make it all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. And I believe if I need to travel out of my area for any reason that the remoteness of water travel will increase my travel ability and decrease my risk of exposure to outside influences.

I would like to add here that many states require a boater safety course before you operate a powered boat in local waters. This would be a great training class to take for everyone. Also for Coastal residents the coast guard has some great publications on navigation and using your boat safely. They also publish charts and booklets explaining what the markers, buoys, and lights mean for Navigational Aids placed throughout our coastal areas. If you do live on the coast and plan to use your boat as part of an emergency plan I would strongly suggest you sign up for and take the Coast Guard's Captain's class. This is commonly referred to as a "six pack license" and allows you to carry up to six passengers as captain on a for hire vessel, such as fishing charter boat captains have. The information you will learn in this class is incredibly important for anyone attempting to navigate in coastal waters. And as always obeying the rules and regulations on boating is crucial, and safety can never be underestimated on the water. You should have a PFD (personal flotation device), or life jacket for every person especially children. These need to fit properly and be in good repair for them to work so the first thing to do is to get a good Coast Guard Approved Life Jacket, the second is to wear it at all times out on the water.

The following are key elements of a plan to travel on water:

1. Examine routes and gather maps and information on the entire route including, hazards such as dams, power plants, locks, and spillways. These may be impassable and a plan to portage (go around) these obstacles will need to be made. Pay attention to seasonal changes such as high water in Spring or frozen areas in winter.

2. Never run rapids you have not scouted first. Stop before you get to them and walk down stream to check for the safest route.

3. Always have proper safety gear on each craft before beginning your trip. Including Life jackets, rescue ropes, and throwable flotation devices.

4. Use appropriate boat style for the type of water you are traveling on.

5. Practice using your watercraft to have some familiarity with your local waterways, and equipment.

6. Pre-pack your equipment for the most stable weight distribution without overloading.

With some minor adjustments your overland escape plan can be modified to include waterway travel and give you one more option in staying safe and prepared. As with any good plan it should include the variables but also allow for adaptability. So get out on a boat, enjoy the scenery, and use that time to get some practice in before you may really need it.

Hello Mr. Rawles,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my previous e-mail. I must confess your original post on your blog and your reply left me feeling somewhat bothered and a little defensive. I have been mulling this over all day and deep down I know the reason why, it's because you are absolutely 100% right.

My wife who makes my world go round could not leave her family, my son who has special needs is receiving very specialist care locally, my community, friends and neighbours who have worked this land for generations rely on me for support and will come to rely on my specialist skills come TEOTWAWKI. This is the hand of cards I have been dealt, idealistic young fool I may be, but I cannot abandon my family, friends and country.

There may be a die-off, there may be wars, unspeakable hardships and suffering but I have to do the best I can for all my people and for the sake of our country,a country that may be currently on the skids but it is still a country that generations of our fathers, brothers and sons have fought and toiled for.

I could be just as easily shot and killed as an outsider in New Zealand, Belize, or Idaho come TEOTWAWKI, if I am going to meet my maker I would rather do it with the respect of myself and my loved ones, knowing that I did not abandon them in their hour of need.

Keep up the good work Mr. Rawles, I will continue to read and enjoy your blog. - Handyman

Sir,
Having been an avid reader of your superb blog from the very beginning, I would like to thank you and all the contributors for an invaluable resource. It’s my computer’s homepage and is the first thing read every day.

Your forecast for the probable scenario post-TEOTWAWKI, or even mini-TEOTWAWKI seems pretty accurate, although the population figure you give [for England] is out-of-date. As of mid-2007 we were at almost 61,000,000 and counting. Soon to be standing room only, it seems. [JWR Adds: Just to clarify, the population of all of the UK was 61 million in 2007. Wikipedia says 51 million is the correct figure for just England.]

So I was right with the 51 million figure. The only good news is that if you consider Scotland, the population density for the entirety of the UK is much lower. Not that Scotland has the most agreeable climate. I'll update that letter accordingly.

Despite living in as near to the middle of nowhere as is possible in these crowded isles, my family and I have been planning our G.O.O.D. from the UK for some time. I’m happy to say that the new place [in the Mediterranean region] is now up and running and we are spending 50% of our time there, (soon to be 100%).

Some things we learned during our relocation exercise:

· It seems, if the television programmes on the subject are to be believed, that some people, after a two-week trip to some exotic location, decide on the spur of the moment to move there – and do just that. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that falls under the ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’ caveat, aka the ‘P7’ rule. Please, please, please, think it through and do your research.

· Where ever you may roam, you take yourself there. Sit yourselves down and think deeply about what you want to do, where you want to go, what you want when you get there, and what you will need to make it happen. If you are running away from something, don’t be surprised if you find it at the end of your journey, sat waiting for you. Running towards something on the other hand..

· I cannot stress this enough: Do your homework. This applies if you are relocating to the next county or the other side of the world. Do not be seduced by picturesque views and/or sales talk. One of the nicest locations we saw on a previous move has appeared on national (UK) television many times; sadly, due to its propensity to flooding several times a year. Fortunately we had looked into it and bought higher ground, elsewhere. The Internet is your friend here, but does not remove the need for feet on the ground and genuine field research.

· Once you’ve identified your chosen location, do yet more research and find the right spot. I will not preach to the choir about the need for fertile soil, water, politics, etc, but would say, as we found to our cost, that sometimes people can be mistaken in their beliefs, if not downright economical with the truth. Check your information, then check it again. It cost us in the region of 5,000 Euros and counting for failing to check an item.

· Allow a realistic timescale for your move. Our (hopefully) ultimate G.O.O.D. exercise involved a change of country, for which we had allowed five years to achieve. It’s going on seven now and whilst installed, we are still commuting internationally and hoping not to get caught up in the Swine Flu snafu whilst in transit. It’s not all been bad news though, the delay has allowed time to improve language skills and inventory, and my good lady has developed a fearsomely accurate eye with her new Benelli. (Sadly, Messrs. Mossberg & Remington are hard to come by out at our location, but the Italian job is a nice, if expensive alternative). It is also pleasing to know that ownership of same does not make one automatically suspect in the eyes of the law or the local politically correct set (whom, I am glad to report, have not found their way here yet).

· Be aware, be very aware that even a short move can result in you finding yourself in a much different culture. This is as true of village/small-town life as it is if you change countries. Be prepared for things being done differently. Many countries prefer the mañana philosophy to the Protestant Work Ethic and this can be incredibly frustrating for some. I personally know of several wannabe ‘GOODers’ who have given up in sight of the finish line due to their inability or unwillingness to adapt to local conditions. If you cannot or will not adapt, then please, stay where you are. (I appreciate this sentiment doesn’t generally apply to ‘our type’ of folk, but if you prefer to be dreamer, save yourself a lot of hassle and money, just don’t..). Similarly, many of these out of the way locations reputedly use the ‘small brown envelope’ method of getting things done. I cannot of course possibly comment on this, but YMMV.

· Render unto Caesar.. This probably should go under the ‘culture’ paragraph, but I think it’s worthy of its own piece. You might not fully understand local bureaucracy – indeed if in a foreign country, with a different language, you probably never will, but it is no excuse in the eyes of the law. If nothing else, find out how, when and where to pay your taxes – and make sure you do. I am told the impound lot for our location is literally full to overflowing with foreign vehicles because owners neglected to pay local taxes on them. (And this is a small, rural location). Remember, the nail that stands out gets hammered down and one presumes under the current financial conditions that this can only get worse. It’s bad enough to lose your pick-up, but your home?

So far, the move has proven the right thing to do. We are totally off-grid and re-learning the joys of septics, generators and, until the well is bored, tanked water.

High on the list is a solar PV set up. We could have held off moving till this was installed, but decided that being there was the number one priority. Given the climate, electricity is not a priority here in the summer, except perhaps for ice and the winters are typically much milder than the UK, so we feel our genset will more than suffice for the time being.

Getting used to the new way of life is fun and challenging at the same time. One thing we have found, is that working full-time in the summer sun of the southern Mediterranean is very different than sitting on a sunbed sipping a beer! Perhaps the man who invented the siesta was not so crazy after all.

In conclusion, if you do decide to take the gap, be aware that it’s not something to do lightly, but it can be done and is more than worth the effort. - Michael

Jim,
As the only military-experienced "beans, bullets and band aids"-type survivalist who shows up at the local weekly Peak Oil meetings, I can say there's a lot of Transition Town stuff going on. It spun-off from Post-Peak Oil groups.

I made the effort to avoid all the Transition Town stuff a long time ago. It mostly consists of retirement age hippies-turned-yuppies-turned-retirees, trying to be do-gooders. I'm just a fellow Army intel guy who's done his own extensive research with regards to Peak Oil (to include fusion between various sources, researchers, etc.), and have been prepping accordingly. After all, we did hit the global peak in liquid fuels extraction in June, 2008. Judging from the shape of this peak mathematically, in addition to the plateau we've been at (there have been a lot of head-fakes since 2005), along with the continuing depletion rates of the current 54 oil fields around the planet that are now in decline (source: TheOilDrum.com), this one looks for real (some are politically intentional slow-downs in production, I have to admit).

I've noticed that all the transition town types have no preps to speak of, and are clueless about preparedness in general, and "don't believe in survivalism".

"We're all going to sing kumbaya in our little communities (which only exist in their minds, BTW) and grow cute little green things, but we're not going to store anything" (one of them even had the audacity to ask me about getting a firearm. Again, I mainly hooked-up with Post-Peak Oil in order to learn how to grow food organically, and have learned a lot, and made some good friends). I have to admit though, that the movement has been growing in the US.

There's a certain British Transition Town expert who has been assisting Post-Peak Oil in this area, and I've asked him specifically, "Does Totnes actually feed itself?" Does Totnes generate its own electrical power?" I've never gotten a straight answer from him, just "well, kind of, sort of, not yet..."

Then what exactly is a Transition town? I'm going to be making sure my friends from Post-Peak Oil get your post.

Keep-up the good work. My wife was part of Book Bomb Day, back in April: One copy for me, one for her father: An old, Mel Tappan type, who had not even previously known about SurvivalBlog. - J.E.

Hello From Ireland,
My wife and I were delighted to see the article on England and your advise to leave for more lightly populated areas of the globe.

Things in England might be bad but here in Ireland things are worse. The economy is in tatters, taxes are being raised, people are advised to avoid getting pregnant because of swine flu. There are talks of keeping schools closed after the summer holidays to avoid the spread of the swine flu so that a vaccine program can be administered, even though we all know there isn't a vaccine available yet. The
unemployment rate is 12% and our brilliant Government inform us it will go to 20%.

The population density is 180/sq mile, knife and gun laws are unbelievable ( I have been waiting six months for a license for a .22 rifle even though I have no criminal record and served three years in the Reserve Defence Force performing security details several times at a major airport with a weapon loaded with live ammunition) sad to say it is possible to get a gun illegally within 24 hours. Pistols are now illegal, because the drug gangs were shooting each other with pistols, despite the fact that no one was ever killed with a legally held pistol. The gang crime here is at level comparable to what was seen in [cities in] the USA in the 1970s. Our Police are retiring at a rate of 45 per month (the maximum size of the force was 12,000) and because of the recession they are not being replaced with recruits, and best of all a Government report advises the closure of half of the country's Police Stations.

My American Wife and myself (Irish) are making plans to get the hell out of Dodge we are looking at Northern Scandinavia as the best option for a place to escape before it all goes very bad here. There are several other Irish people who think the same as ourselves and are making their own escape plans. We would welcome your comments on our choice of location. - INNUKSUK Survival, County Limerick, Ireland.

Jim,
Although I very much agree that UK residents should, if possible, move overseas, I nonetheless believe that due to financial, residency requirements and other reasons, not everyone will be able to leave the UK to relocate in America, NZ or elsewhere. For those people, there remains the option of what I believe is one of the best retreat locations within the European Union: north of the Great Glen in Scotland. Specifically, I view the lower lying (farmable) terrain along the west coast and islands as being best suited to this purpose.

The benefits are, from my various sorties to study the region:

1. One of lowest population densities in western Europe.

2. Both distance (by UK standards!) and formidable mountainous barriers between the region and the large urban centers of Glasgow, Edinburgh and the east coast. Its isolation reduces its allure as a target for roaming urbanite gangs, a point even more applicable to the likes of [The Isle of] Skye which, during the days of the conflicts between the Lords of the Isles and the Stewarts, was so shielded by the Highlands wilderness that the king had to send his fleet from the east coast around the north of Scotland to attack them by sea. Even on the Great Britain mainland, the Knoydart region has no road access from the rest of Scotland; it can only be reached by 2 day hike or by sea. Something to bear in mind in a modern grid down scenario.

3. A largely conservative indigenous population, quietly distrustful of modern ways.

4. There are numerous small semi self-reliant communities dotted throughout the region, many of which are used to taking in idealist outsiders seeking refuge from the madding crowds.

5. Whereas the interior of the Highlands can have very severe winters with prolonged periods of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, the lower portions of the west coast are relieved by mild Atlantic currents providing a lenient maritime microclimate.

6. A hunting and outdoors culture. There are so many red deer in the region now that some locals are calling for the wolf to be reintroduced to reduce their numbers.

On the down side:

1. Isolation comes at a price; in good weather, it can take the best part of two hours to get to Inverness or Fort William from the west coast or [from the Isle of] Skye. In winter, you may have to wait longer until a storm ends or a snow plow comes along. Bad news if you need urgent medical treatment which, for now, can be circumvented by emergency helicopter missions undertaken by the military.

2. Strict Reformed Christians, who are considerable in number in the region, frown upon many activities that outsiders take for granted; for instance, their observance of the Sunday Sabbath in some cases compels them to pull a chair from the table rather than push it away, as the former mode is seen as less like work than the latter. So digging your garden or hanging clothes on a line on a Sunday would be a good way to alienate them. On the other hand, their lax attitude towards alcohol consumption will surprise teetotaling Christians from outside.

3. There is an undercurrent of lingering resentment towards the English who are still blamed for the infamous Highland Clearances. There is perhaps an outside chance of the odd Englishman becoming the local "expendable gringo" come TEOTWAWKI.

4. The quality of the soil is generally not great, although it is nonetheless possible with assistance from compost to grow a considerable amount of vegetables. Sturdy stock fencing is a must, due to the deer menace. Also, I am told that eagles account for high losses in spring lambs.

5. Self sufficient farming comes under a lot of petty scrutiny from over eager bureaucrats; for instance, it is illegal to help someone else butcher livestock on their holding; you can only do it to your own cattle on your own land.

6. And of course, like the rest of the UK, gun ownership is insanely regulated.

7. Scottish law and conveyancing practices are alien to those in the rest of the UK. Also, property prices tend to be very high, as are property taxes. I know someone who left the Highland to live in France because he couldn't bear the property taxes.

8. Summertime sees the area swamped with hillwalkers and tourists from all over Europe, many of whom are drawn to the quaint coastal communities and who may note ongoing self-sufficiency preparations for later reference.

Overall then, it's very far from perfect but nevertheless presents perhaps an emergency, last minute kind of option for those who don't think they have the wherewithal to make a bigger jump.

Finally, [for an illustration of the high population density,] see the photos of Europe from space at night. Kind regards, - Jay W.

Mr. Rawles,
Greetings from England. Having read "Patriots" from cover to cover many times and long been a devotee of your blog I do regard you as being one of the foremost experts in the world of preparation for TEOTWAWKI situations. However, I do have some queries with some points on your recent article regarding a SHTF situation in England.

While I appreciate that for some people it is the best option to emigrate, what practical advice would you have for people who emigration would not be possible? We are part of a well armed (many shotguns, Deer stalking rifles, .22 LRs, crossbows, compound bows etc.) rural community, that even with our climate produces more food than we could ever eat, in a defendable location, many locals are ex-military and our population is sufficient that there could be workers and soldiers.

Regarding moving abroad, Is not one of the golden rules of survival not to become a refugee or an outsider? It can take a long time to fully integrate into a community and be accepted, I believe that the threat of TEOTWAWKI is upon us now and in many places we would be regarded as "outsiders" or "foreigners". Belize was one of the options you put forward as a possible place to emigrate to, having worked for 18 months all over Belize I know enough about the people, the crime level, the corruption and the various factions to know that maybe that is not the best idea in the world. In a SHTF scenario there is not enough British troops there to protect it's interests and Belize is quite low down on the British Governments list of priorities.

Your advice and thoughts would be appreciated. - Handyman

JWR Replies: Your town might be the exception to the rule. One key question: How many miles from a major city is your town, and is it on a major highway? Or is it "off the beaten track" , away from refugee lines of drift? That could make a crucial difference in whether or not your town would be overwhelmed by refugees in a societal collapse.

Another consideration is counting the roads into the town. If you are fortunate, the geography will be favorable, limiting the avenues of approach. But in open farming country, there are usually numerous access roads. In a worst case scenario, how many roadblocks would have to be manned? Think through the number of defenders that would be required to maintain 24/7/360 security.

I only mentioned "...or perhaps Belize" for folks that already have friends or relatives that live there, and that you preferably already speak Spanish. Granted, you'd be considered an outsider, but Belize still has a very class-conscious society. Because of this, land owners--regardless of their origin--are generally held in esteem. I'd be more worried about criminals crossing the porous border with Guatemala, than about your next door neighbors.

Hi Jim,

I enjoyed that excellent GPS article [by Mike S., "GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival".] It squares well with my personal experience.

GPS on-board mapping has many errors. Seems worse in the hinterlands. Also pretty bad where new construction is concerned. I was amused while driving in MA that for about a half mile my GPS unit thought I was driving down railroad tracks.

While snowshoeing with friends, my buddy had to demonstrate the GPS on his iPhone. All it showed was a dot in the middle of a blank screen. We were beyond the reach of cell phone towers and his phone could not access a map. We had a good laugh about it, but it's a good thing we knew our way through other means.

Many people who totally rely on a GPS for driving seem to lose their innate sense of direction. I asked a cousin for directions to a place and he said. "Huh . . . I've been there a hundred times but just follow the GPS directions. I really couldn't find my way there without it."

I do enjoy having GPS in my car. It came in handy when my speedometer cable broke and I could get my mph off of the unit.

Just be aware of its limits and don't forget your other navigation skills. - Raymond

Reading accounts of people who had evacuated the Gulf Coast during Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita was a sobering experience. Evacuees who took to the interstate highways effectively ended up in giant parking lots. In contrast, those who used the back roads fared much better and were able to evacuate in a timely manner. I live sufficiently inland that hurricanes do not pose a serious threat to me, nor do other foreseeable regional natural disasters such as earthquakes pose a serious risk. However, I live in the middle of a major metropolitan area where man-made disasters and localized natural disasters can and do happen. Similarly, a disaster can impair my ability to even get home. I also know from personal experience that even "normal" weather-related events such as ice storms can turn the major highways into near-parking lots, and knowing the back roads can save precious time.

Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers have come a long way since they were first introduced to consumers in the 1990s. My first GPS receiver, purchased in 1995, had no inherent map capability. It provided position (latitude, longitude, and elevation) information, along with a bearing while traveling. It had the ability to store way-points, and to record tracks for later review or backtracking. Way-points and tracks were displayable on the graphical display of the unit, but it only showed where you had gone or places where you already knew the coordinates. Using it to its full potential required that it be used in conjunction with a high quality map, such as a United States Geological Survey (USGS) topographical map. By the mid-2000s, GPS receivers with mapping capability became available for a reasonable price. Today, GPS receivers with mapping capability are available for under $100.

There are competing systems to the US GPS system. The Russians have their own operational global navigation satellite system (GNSS) called Glonass. The European Union is currently developing their own GNSS, Galileo, expected to be operational in 2013. And, the Chinese are promising to deploy their own GNSS, called Compass, announced to be operational in 2015.

Further, there are regional satellite based position augmentation services that improve the accuracy of GPS. In North America, the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) is operated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Europe operates the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS). Japan has the Multi-functional Satellite Augmentation System (MSAS). Other regional GPS augmentation systems are under development or being deployed.

This discussion is going to focus on hand-held and automotive GPS receivers - receivers I believe would be useful in an emergency situation. Hand-held GPS receivers run on batteries and are intended for outdoor use. Automotive GPS receivers are intended for use in an automobile, and provide turn-by-turn route navigation capability. Some hand-held GPS receivers have route navigation capability. I don't consider a GPS receiver that relies on a computer or PDA for display of data to be practical for emergency use since there are too many pieces to be forgotten, lost, or damaged in the "fog" of an emergency evacuation.

Many cell phones also have GPS capability, and while GPS-enabled cell phones are useful during normal times, they rely heavily on the cellular network to provide map and routing information, and should not be relied upon during an emergency when the cellular network may be overloaded or compromised.

Automotive GPS receivers

Automotive GPS receivers provide astonishing capability for their price, but they are not truly portable. For example, the TomTom ONE 125 unit has been readily available for around $100. It comes with a fairly detailed pre-loaded map of US streets and highways, and has a built-in lithium-ion battery which will power it for about three hours. It is intended to get its power from a vehicle. The map mode display is nearly as good as that provided by Google Maps which contributes significantly to its usability. More expensive units will provide larger displays, larger maps (e.g. all of North America), and more points-of-interest (POI) in the map database. (Several of the automotive GPS receiver manufacturers have started providing free or reasonably priced map update services for their road map products. This may or may not be important to you depending on how much the streets and roads change in your area of interest.)

Automotive GPS receivers are known for providing turn-by-turn directions from your current location to your destination. Destinations are either selected from the POI database, entered as a street address, or even entered as a latitude-longitude coordinate. Many reviews of automotive GPS units will complain that the unit does not navigate you to the exact address entered, but may be off by a house or two. My automotive GPS receiver misplaces my home address on my street - it appears to assume that addresses are numbered proportionally from 0 to 99 along the block with 50 being the mid-point of the block, and estimates the position along the street from the numerical address. I don't consider this a significant issue. My automotive GPS receiver is also capable of generating a route to a known latitude-longitude coordinate position, so long as that position is close to a street or road in its map database. However, it won't generate a route to a previously stored location hundreds of feet from a street or road, such as a location in the middle of a large parking lot.

Handheld GPS receivers

Handheld GPS receivers fall into several broad categories. Bare-bones units whose functionality consists of storing some small number of way points and the ability to direct the user back to one of these waypoints. Basic units whose functionally is not a whole lot dissimilar to those produced in the mid-90s in that they can record tracks and waypoints, and provide coordinate information. And, mapping units that have pre-loaded/built-in maps and usually have the ability to upload additional map information (many caveats here).

Bare-bones: I am only aware of one GPS receiver on the market with this limited feature set. This unit is the Bushnell BackTrack. It has the ability to store three waypoints set by pressing the "Mark" button when you are at a location you want it to return to later. There is no ability to enter waypoint coordinates. It provides a bearing and distance to direct the user back to one of the three previously stored waypoints. The bearing is displayed via one of 16 triangular points spaced around the perimeter of its round display being energized. The three-digit range is displayed in yards (or meters) or miles (or kilometers) depending on the magnitude of the distance to the waypoint. The BackTrack is intended to help a user return to their car in a large parking lot or find their way back to a hotel in a strange city. It may also be useful in helping a day hiker return to his vehicle, or helping a hunter return to a stand. I see little practical utility for a receiver with this limited capability in a SHTF scenario.

Basic: There are many basic GPS receiver models on the market, the most common being the yellow Garmin etrex (not to be confused with the many mapping etrex models). These models generally provide a compass display, velocity displays, position displays (latitude, longitude, and elevation), and can display a map-like plot of your route tracks and way points. They do not contain any type of base map. They have the same basic capabilities of units sold in the 90s, with updated hardware. They must be used in conjunction with high quality maps to be utilized to their full potential.

Mapping: There are many mapping GPS receiver models on the market. They range from units having a limited base map containing major roads, major streets, and larger bodies of water, to units that come pre-loaded with topographical maps for the entire US. Units containing a limited base map generally have memory for uploading additional map data. Some models use a memory card (SD, or micro-SD) to store the uploaded map data, and some models rely on internal memory. The big caveat is that map data can expensive - on the order of $100 for detailed maps of North America - and generally these maps cannot be shared among multiple units.

No matter how new the map, it will contain old and erroneous data. This is a frequent complaint in the product reviews of electronic map products.

Some hand-held mapping GPS receivers have routing capabilities. With the addition of routable maps, the receiver can function as basic automotive GPS receiver. It will beep and display a message to alert the driver/navigator of upcoming turns. At best, a hand-held mapping receiver is a compromise relative to an automotive GPS receiver due to the small screen size and lack of voice prompts. (Do not underestimate the value of voice prompts when traveling in heavy traffic or in a dense urban environment with numerous streets and exits.)

The Garmin user community has developed open source (free) map products using US Government data and other data unencumbered by use restrictions. For US roads, the Ibycus map is very nice, but lacks the metadata utilized by the routing software built into some Garmin GPS receivers. Further, there are open source topographical maps of the US derived from US government data. The Ibycus and topographical maps are available online from GPS File Depot.

There is another site (http://garmin.na1400.info/routable.php) that has routable street maps for Garmin GPS units. As of this writing, I have not tried the maps available on that site.

Some mapping units also have the ability to upload satellite images and other image data from the internet. I have not studied those units in any detail.

Supportability

Supportability relates to the resources required to support the ongoing operation of the GPS receiver. For automotive GPS receivers, this means gasoline to power the vehicles within which they are used. For hand-held GPS receivers, this is largely its battery consumption. In anything other than a short-term emergency situation, I don't consider an automotive GPS receiver to be sustainable because of the dependence on gasoline supplies for its host automobile.

Currently marketed hand-held GPS receivers have widely varying battery consumption rates. Some are as low as 10 hours on 2 AA cells (many models), while others claim to be as long as 50 hours on 2 AA cells (Lowrance GO and GO2). Most hand-held GPS receivers use AA cells, while a few use AAA cells. Whether disposable alkaline batteries or rechargeable batteries are used, I am interested in units that have longer battery life. Further, I do not consider hand-held GPS receivers with built-in rechargeable batteries or a proprietary battery pack to be supportable since recharging the battery in the field would be impractical.

Mapping GPS receivers, whether hand-held or automotive, are generally dependent on a personal computer (PC) for map installations and updates. Some GPS manufacturers also sell their maps preloaded on memory cards for their GPS units that accept memory cards. Once map data is loaded onto the receiver, it can be utilized without further updates by a PC.

Position Accuracy & Chipset Sensitivity

The typical GPS receiver specifications will state a position accuracy of less than 15 meters (49 feet) RMS 95 percent of the time, or less than 3 meters (10 feet) 95 percent of the time with WAAS. WAAS is a system for North America with two geostationary satellites that transmit GPS correction information to dramatically improve the position accuracy of GPS receivers. (See the Wikipedia entry on WAAS for more information.) Most WAAS capable GPS receivers also support EGNOS and MSAS.

Even when GPS receivers have the same position accuracy specifications, receiver sensitivity and other design parameters make a big difference it the actual position accuracy. Position accuracy is a function of the number of satellites the GPS receiver can receive and the quality of the satellite signals. Three satellites are the minimum required to get a two-dimensional position fix, and four satellites are required to get a three-dimensional position fix. The more satellites that are received, the better the position solution will be. In practice, obstacles like mountains, buildings, or trees are going to attenuate the satellite signals and affect the position solution. But, software and chipset sensitivity also have a big influence on position accuracy.

Most GPS receivers sold now have WAAS capability, but just because the receiver is advertised as being WAAS capable does not mean that the WAAS feature actually functions. In 2007, the FAA moved their WAAS transmissions to new satellites. Magellan GPS receivers had hard coded the WAAS satellite data in the firmware for their hand-held GPS receivers, and many of these receivers did not transition to the new satellites. The firmware for many of their older hand-held receivers (pre-Triton models) can be hacked to update the satellite data and re-enable WAAS. As of this writing, WAAS does not work on the lower-end Triton models, and nobody has yet figured out how to hack the Triton firmware. The Lowrance iFinder GO receivers appear to have a similar firmware problem.

Not all GPS receivers have the same sensitivity. Chipset sensitivity is important. My mid-19s90s vintage GPS receiver has noticeably diminished sensitivity under many trees. In contrast, a modern high sensitivity chipset will pick up most satellites visible above the horizon, even when the signal travels through the brick walls of a typical residence.

So, how important is position accuracy? Well, it all depends on what you want to do with the receiver. If you are trying to return to a camp site, a one-hundred foot position error is probably close enough. If you are trying to find the location of a buried cache, one hundred feet probably isn't close enough. However, a position error of less than ten feet will probably be close enough to locate the cache.

Using Your GPS Receiver

Start up. When a GPS receiver is first taken out of the box or after it has been stored for several months (a "factory start'), it requires upwards of 15 minutes with a clear view of the sky to download the almanac and ephemeris data necessary to compute an accurate position. (Some GPS receivers come from the factory preloaded with almanac data, and if that almanac data is current the receiver can get a first fix out of the box in seconds.) Older consumer GPS receivers produced in the 1990s that do not have parallel receivers can take far longer (up to several hours) to produce an accurate position result from a factory start.

Subsequent power-ups of the receiver, after having been off for a few minutes ("hot start") to a few hours ("warm start") will produce an accurate position result in a few seconds to less than a minute if it has a clear view of the sky. If the receiver is left off overnight or for several days ("cold start") the receiver should produce an accurate position result in a minute or so if it has a clear view of the sky.

Antennas. Most consumer GPS receivers now have internal antennas. Some are patch antennas and some are "quadrifilar helix" antennas. The patch antenna is normally facing up when the GPS receiver is lying on a flat surface. The quadrifilar helix antenna is normally facing up when the GPS receiver is standing vertically. It is beneficial to know what kind of antenna your receiver has and the orientation of that antenna to achieve optimal results. Some owner’s manuals will tell you what type of antenna the GPS receiver contains or suggest how to hold the receiver for optimal performance.

For example, the Garmin etrex Legend and Legend HCx have patch antennas. In practice, I have had excellent reception having them standing up at about 60 degrees on the dashboard of my vehicle.

Satellite Status Page. Most GPS receivers have a satellite status page that will provide information about the position of the satellites in the sky and the relative signal quality from each individual satellite in the form of a bar graph. Some GPS receivers have a dumbed-down "normal" satellite status page, and an "advanced" page - you want to use the advanced page. When I have seen my estimated position error degrade or I get a "satellite signal lost" message unexpectedly, the satellite status page can be very helpful in determining the source of the problem. No signal from some satellites could suggest that their signal is being blocked by a mountain or a building. Uniformly low signal quality could be the result of the signal being attenuated by tree cover.

Roadway Routing. GPS receivers with routing capability  have preferences that allow you to select the type of route you want it to generate. Typical options are fastest route, shortest route, avoid freeways or highways, walking, or on a bicycle. Some receivers further have options for the type of vehicle (e.g. automobile, bus, truck) you are driving - this option can dramatically change the route generated. Most routing units will automatically recalculate your route to reach your destination if you deviate from the planned route (e.g. you miss a turn), unless you disable this option.

Updates. The major GPS receiver manufacturers occasionally make firmware updates available for those models that can connect to a PC if that PC has internet access. With rare exceptions, it is worthwhile to keep your GPS unit's software updated to the latest firmware version available from the manufacturer. These updates will correct bugs and may introduce minor enhancements.

Practice, Practice, Practice. Use your GPS receiver. Practice with it. Get to know how it works in different environments, how fast it starts up, how to navigate through its various menus. Figure out now how to mount it in your vehicle - windshield suction mounts work very well.

Paper Map and Compass.  A GPS receiver is not a substitute for a paper map and compass. GPS receivers, especially the mapping variety, are just easier and faster to use. Use your GPS receiver to help refine your map and compass skills. (You can also use your GPS receiver to help verify that your compass reads true by obtaining the coordinates of some prominent feature, and then computing the magnetic bearing from your compass test point to the feature. Yes, even a genuine military lensatic compass can be off by several degrees.)

For information about using GPS receivers with maps (specifica