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Wednesday April 30 2008

Letter Re: Retreat Locales in the Eastern United States

Mr. Rawles:

I see that [in your Recommended Retreat Areas page] you only list information for retreat selection in 19 western states. Do you not think other states are worthy of retreat locations?

We live on 300 acres in southwestern Missouri (Polks County). Not totally ideal I am sure, but it is home, children and grandchildren are here and more over we feel placed here by our Lord over 35 years ago.

I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts pro/con on the state of Missouri so that we might be better prepared. -- Paulette

JWR Replies: I consider Missouri marginal as a retreat locale, primarily because of it population density. The state of Missouri is on the safer (lower population density) side of the Mississippi River but it is still far from ideal, since the state is bisected by the Missouri River and the dramatic drop in US population density is west of the Missouri. (As I will discuss later in this reply.)

My choice of reviewing retreat locales in just 19 western states has been discussed a few times before in SurvivalBlog, but for the benefit of the many newcomers, I will reiterate:

After much consideration, all of the eastern states were intentionally excluded for my recommendations because they are all either downwind of nuclear targets and/or are in areas with excessive population density. This wasn't just the result of subjective bias. I try to use the dispassionate mindset of an actuarial accountant.

Take a look at The Lights of the U.S. photo maps. These montages of satellite photos make it clear that most of America's population is east of the Missouri River and is highly urbanized.The population density of the U.S. is dramatically lower in the west. In troubled times fewer people means fewer problems. In the event of a social upheaval, being west of the Missouri River will mean a statistically much lower chance of coming face to face with lawless rioters or looters When The Schumer Hits The Fan (WTSHTF).

The other startling thing you will notice when looking at the Lights photo montage is that even in the western states, Americans live in a highly urbanized society. Roughly 90% of the population is crammed into 5% of the land area, mostly within 50 miles of the coast. But there are large patches of the west where there are virtually no lights at all--particularly in the Great Basin region that extends from the back side of the Sierra Nevada mountains to Utah and Eastern Oregon. The average population density in this region is less than two people per square mile.

As an example of the low population density in the west, I often like to cite Idaho County, Idaho: This one county measures 8,485 square miles--bigger than Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. But it has a population of just 15,400. And of those residents, roughly 3,300 people live in Grangeville, the county seat. Who lives in the rest of the County? Nary a soul. There are far more deer and elk than there are people. The population density of the county is 1.8 people per square mile. The county has more than three million acres of U.S. Forest Service land, BLM land, and designated Federal wilderness areas. Now that is elbow room!

The northeastern states depend on nuclear power plants for 47% of their electricity. South Carolina is similarly dependent. This is an unacceptable level of high technology systems dependence, particularly in light of the emerging terrorist threat. You must also consider that virtually all of the eastern states are downwind of major nuclear targets. In a full scale exchange, the eastern US would be a bad place to be. See the target lists, fallout projections, and other data at Richard Fleetwood's excellent SurvivalRing web site. Not only are there lots of nuclear targets in the east, but easterners will also get considerable additional fallout carried on the winds from strikes farther west--including SAC bomber bases, the strategic missile fields (in Montana, the Dakotas, and northern Colorado), Cheyenne Mountain (Colorado), Offutt AFB (Nebraska), and others. The majority of the military targets are expected to be hit with ground bursts, which are the type that produce fallout. Because of the Coriolis Effect, the prevailing winds in most of the United States are from west to east, so the farther east you live, the greater the accumulated fallout that you are likely to receive. Sorry!

My general advice for easterners: If for one reason or another you are stuck in the northeast, then consider New Hampshire or Vermont. They are both gun friendly and have more self-sufficient lifestyle. But unless you have some compelling reason to stay in the East, I most strongly encourage you to Go West!

With all that said, there are some areas in the eastern US that will be safer than others (like parts of Tennessee and Maine), and there are ways to mitigate the risks that I mentioned.:

Risk Mitigation

The risk posed by the higher population density of the eastern states can be mitigated by both carefully choosing your retreat property (look for bypassed areas that are far from "channelized areas" and lines of drift") and by having heavily-manned 24/7/360 armed and vigilant security at your retreat. (See my novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse" for a detailed description of what might be needed to mount such a guard.) This will of course mean extra mouths to feed--which in turn dictates the expense of extra storage food, extra gardening space, extra housing, and extra stored fuel. But this could be viable, especially if you are wealthy.

The other obvious risk mitigation is to construct a blast/fallout shelter with a forced-air HEPA filter. If your house already has a basement, and you are willing to do some of the work yourself, a retrofit can be done for under $5,000. Constructing a new, dedicated shelter can be a $15,000 to $70,000 proposition, depending how large and elaborate you want to make it. The folks at Safecastle have extensive experience in building such shelters, tailored for all budgets. They specialize in combination storm/nuke/gun vault shelters. I highly recommend them.

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Tuesday April 29 2008

Two Letters Re: Observations on a Tour of a Telephone Company Central Office

James:

The batteries are why the phone still works when the power goes out. That is if you still have an old style (hard wire) phone and not all cordless phones. The cordless phones need 120 VAC power to run the base station. You should maintain at least one all wire somewhere in your house.
I believe the [common design for COs is that the] whole building is built in such a way that it is a big Faraday Cage. It would take a pretty close proximity EMP to take one out. The EMP
danger is in the above ground wiring [and antennas].

Most of this kind of engineering is done for lighting protection, but it is something of an EMP protection as well. That is [on reason why they are continuing to switch to underground wiring, even on expensive long[er] distance routes. The switch to fiber optics helps here also, even though the main rationale for its adoption was capacity and cost.

The phone companies are some of the most engineering conservative utilities in this country. When I worked with them, everything was "double built". 100 percent redundancy.
And they are learning a lot fast about “hardening” their properties. Some of the upgrades I have seen done inside those little brick buildings spread around the country make them into pillboxes. - Keith S.

 

Hi Jim,

I saw the stuff about phone Central Offices (COs) and thought I would contribute a bit as well since this is a part of my area of specialty. Many times people have these nearby and are unaware of them. They look like a generic office building - most have few or no windows and are most often brick, concrete or concrete block. They are generally unobtrusive and sometimes do not even have the company logo on them. They are made this way because they house what is considered critical communications infrastructure and because they are supposed to be semi-secure and protected against all but the very worst mother nature can dish out. They are also a desirable target for terrorists, etc. As far as I know it is a Federal felony to disrupt the operations of one of these buildings so batteries, generators, and so forth would be strictly off limits in all but a true TEOTWAWKI situation.

This link has pictures of COs. If you look at the Kansas page you can see the COs that might exist in a small town - where they may serve at most a few hundred customers. The one's listed under California (619) might serve a few thousand customers. These buildings will generally not be more than about 3 to 5 miles apart in suburban areas and even closer in urban areas so they are quite common, but most people do not have a clue where or what they are.

They do have large battery back-ups and larger one's have generators. The larger one's will also have fuel reservoirs of either diesel, propane or gasoline depending on the location, company policy, etc. These are required to keep the system up if the grid goes down - however they are only meant for a few days operation at best on generators. They do change the batteries our regularly because they have to keep the grid operational. [Their surplus battery sales are] a decent way to get good, used deep cycle batteries. The best money can buy. Regards, - Tim P.

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Monday April 28 2008

Letter Re: Observations on a Tour of a Telephone Company Central Office

Hi Jim,
I just came back from a tour of one of our local phone company’s central office (CO) and this is what I learned: Besides finding out how our phone lines work, I found out that the hardware there runs on 48 volt DC power. There is a large battery bank in the basement and the batteries are charged by the grid. It is made up of large clear cylinders and you can see the acid level and the plates inside. In the case of the grid going down it has a generator back up. Many of these offices are unmanned. I also found out that there are many small remote units around that run on a couple of deep cycle batteries for back up power around town. In the case of a prolonged power outage the technicians will cycle through the remote units with generators to charge up the batteries.

I was also surprised at all the circuit boards. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would easily take out [these microcircuit boards, and hence wipe out] all the phone circuits.

I know that society would have to totally break down in order to make use of these resources but I bet not too many people know about the battery banks. Just something to keep in the back of your mind because every town will have something like this. - Adam in Ohio

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Wednesday April 16 2008

The Precepts of My Survivalist Philosophy

In the past week I've had three newcomers to SurvivalBlog.com write and ask me to summarize my world view. One of them asked: "I could spend days looking through [the] archives of your [many months of] blog posts. But there are hundreds of them. Can you tell me where you stand, in just a page? What distinguishes the "Rawlesian" philosophy from other [schools of] survivalist thought?"

I'll likely add a few items to this list as time goes on, but here is a general summary of my precepts:

Modern Society is Increasingly Complex, Interdependent, and Fragile. With each passing year, technology progresses and chains of interdependency lengthen. In the past 30 years, chains of retail supply have grown longer and longer. The food on your supermarket shelf does not come from local farmers. It often comes from hundreds or even thousands of miles away. This has created an alarming vulnerability to disruption. Simultaneously, global population is still increasing in a near geometrical progression. At some point that must end, most likely with a sudden and sharp drop in population. The lynchpin is the grid. Without functioning power grids, modern industrial societies will collapse within weeks.

Civilization is Just a Thin Veneer. In the absence of law an order, men quickly revert to savagery. As was illustrated by the rioting and looting that accompanied disasters in the past three decades, the transition from tranquility to absolute barbarism can occur overnight. People expect tomorrow to be just like today, and they act accordingly. But then comes a unpredictable disaster that catches the vast majority unprepared. The average American family has four days worth of food on hand. When that food is gone, we'll soon see the thin veneer stripped away.

People Run in Herds and Packs, but Both Follow Natural Lines of Drift. Most people are sheep ("sheeple"). A few are wolves that prey on others. But just a few of us are more like sheepdogs--we think independently, and instead of predation, we are geared toward protecting and helping others. People naturally follow natural lines of drift--the path of least resistance. When the Schumer hits the fan, 99% of urbanites will try to leave the cities on freeways. The highways and freeways will soon resemble parking lots. This means that you need to be prepared to both get out of town ahead of the rush and to use lightly-traveled back roads. Plan, study and practice.

Lightly Populated Areas are Safer than High Density Areas. With a few exceptions, less population means fewer problems. WTSHTF, there will be a mass exodus from the cities. Think of it as an army that is spreading out across a battlefield: The wider that they are spread, the less effective that they are. The inverse square law hasn't been repealed.

Show Restraint, But Always Have Recourse to Lethal Force. My father often told me, "It is better to have a gun and not need it, than need a gun, and not have it." I urge readers to use less than lethal means when safe and practicable, but at times there is not a satisfactory substitute for well-aimed lead going down range at high velocity.

There is Strength in Numbers. Rugged individualism is all well and good, but it takes ore than one man to defend a retreat. Effective retreat defense necessitates having at least two families to provide 24/7 perimeter security. But of course every individual added means having another mouth to feed. Absent having an unlimited budget and an infinite larder, this necessitates striking a balance when deciding the size of a retreat group.

There are Moral Absolutes. The foundational morality of the civilized world is best summarized in the Ten Commandments. Moral relativism and secular humanism are slippery slopes. The terminal moraine at the base of these slopes is a rubble pile consisting of either despotism and pillage, or anarchy and the depths of depravity. I believe that it takes both faith and friends to survive perilous times. For more background on that, see my Prayer page.

Racism Ignores Reason. People should be judged as individuals. Anyone that make blanket statements about other races is ignorant that there are both good and bad individuals in all groups. I have accepted The Great Commission with sincerity."Go forth into all nations" means exactly that: all nations. OBTW, I feel grateful that SurvivalBlog is now read in more than 100 countries. I have been given a bully pulpit, and I intend to use it for good and edifying purposes.

Skills Beat Gadgets and Practicality Beats Style. The modern world is full of pundits, poseurs, and Mall Ninjas. Preparedness is not just about accumulating a pile of stuff. You need practical skills, and those only come with study, training, and practice. Any armchair survivalist can buy a set of stylish camouflage fatigues and an M4gery Carbine encrusted with umpteen accessories. Style points should not be mistaken for genuine skills and practicality.

Plentiful Water and Good Soil are Crucial. Modern mechanized farming, electrically pumped irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides can make deserts bloom. But when the grid goes down, deserts and marginal farmland will revert to their natural states. In my estimation, the most viable places to survive in the midst of a long term societal collapse will be those with reliable summer rains and rich topsoil.

Tangibles Trump Conceptuals. Modern fiat currencies are generally accepted, but have essentially no backing. Because they are largely a byproduct of interest bearing debt, modern currencies are destined to inflation. In the long run, inflation dooms fiat currencies to collapse. The majority of your assets should be invested in productive farm land and other tangibles such as useful hand tools. Only after you have your key logistics squared away, anything extra should be invested in silver and gold.

Governments Tend to Expand their Power to the Point that They Do Harm. In SurvivalBlog, I often warn of the insidious tyranny of the Nanny State. If the state where you live becomes oppressive, then don't hesitate to relocate. Vote with your feet!

There is Value in Redundancy. A common saying of my readers is: "Two is one, and one is none." You must be prepared to provide for your family in a protracted period of societal disruption. That means storing up all of the essential "beans, bullets, and Band-Aids" in quantity. If commerce is disrupted by a disaster, at least in the short term you will only have your own logistics to fall back on. The more that you have stored, the more that you will have available for barter and charity.

A Deep Larder is Essential. Food storage is one of the key preparations that I recommend. Even if you have a fantastic self-sufficient garden and pasture ground, you must always have food storage that you can fall back on in the event that your crops fail due to drought, disease, or infestation.

Tools Without Training Are Almost Useless. Owning a gun doesn't make someone a "shooter" any more than owning a surfboard makes someone a surfer. With proper training and practice, you will be miles ahead of the average citizen. Get advanced medical training. Get the best firearms training that you can afford. Learn about amateur radio from your local affiliated ARRL club. Practice raising a vegetable garden each summer. Some skills are only perfected over a period of years.

Old Technologies are Appropriate Technologies. In the event of a societal collapse, 19th Century (or earlier) technologies such as a the blacksmith's forge, the treadle sewing machine, and the horse-drawn plow will be far easier to re-construct than modern technologies.

Charity is a Moral Imperative. As a Christian, I feel morally obligated to assist others that are less fortunate. Following the Old Testament laws of Tzedakah (charity and tithing), I believe that my responsibility begins with my immediate family and expands in successive rings to supporting my immediate neighborhood and church, to my community, and beyond, as resources allow. In short, my philosophy is to "give until it hurts" in times of disaster.

Buy Life Assurance, not Life Insurance. Self-sufficiency and self-reliance are many-faceted. You need to systematically provide for Water, Food, Shelter, Fuel, First Aid, Commo, and, if need be, the tools to enforce Rule 308.

Live at Your Retreat Year-Round. If your financial and family circumstances allow it, I strongly recommend that you relocate to a safe area and live there year-round. This has several advantages, most notably that will prevent burglary of your retreat logistics and allow you to regularly tend to gardens, orchards, and livestock. It will also remove the stress of timing a "Get Out of Dodge" trip at the11th hour. If circumstances dictate that you can't live at your retreat year round, then at least have a caretaker and stock the vast majority of your logistics in advance, since you may only have one trip there before roads are impassable.

Exploit Force Multipliers. Night vision gear, intrusion detection sensors, and radio communications equipment are key force multipliers. Because these use high technology they cannot be depended upon in a long term collapse, but in the short term, they can provide a big advantage. Some low technologies like barbed wire and defensive road cables also provide advantages and can last for several decades.

Invest Your Sweat Equity. Even if some of you have a millionaire's budget, you need to learn how to do things for yourself, and be willing to get your hands dirty. In a societal collapse, the division of labor will be reduced tremendously. Odds are that the only "skilled craftsmen" available to build a shed, mend a fence, shuck corn, repair an engine, or pitch manure will be you.and your family. A byproduct of sweat equity is muscle tone and proper body weight. Hiring someone to deliver three cords of firewood is a far cry from felling, cutting, hauling, splitting, and stacking it yourself.

Choose Your Friends Wisely. Associate yourself with skilled doers, not "talkers." Seek out people that share your outlook and morality. Living in close confines with other families is sure to cause friction but that will be minimized if you share a common religion and norms of behavior.You can't learn every skill yourself. Assemble a team that includes members with medical knowledge, tactical skills, electronics experience, and traditional practical skills.

There is No Substitute for Mass. Mass stops bullets. Mass stops gamma radiation. Mass stops (or at least slows down ) bad guys from entering a home and depriving its residents of life and property. Sandbags are cheap, so buy plenty of them. When planning your retreat house, think: medieval castle. (See the SurvivalBlog Archives for the many articles and letters on Retreat Architecture.)

Always Have a Plan B and a Plan C. Regardless of your pet scenario and your personal grand plan of survival, you need to be flexible and adaptable. Situations and circumstances change. Always keep a G.O.O.D. kit handy, even if you are fortunate enough to live at your retreat year-round.

Be Frugal. I grew up in a family that still remembered both our pioneer history and the more recent lessons of the Great Depression. One of our family mottos is: "Use it up, wear it out, make do, or do without."

Some Things are Worth Fighting For. I encourage my readers to avoid trouble, most importantly via relocation to safe areas where trouble is unlikely to come to visit. But there may come an unavoidable day that you have to make a stand to defend your own family or your neighbors. Further, if you value your liberty, then be prepared to fight for it, both for yourself and for the sake of your progeny.

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Sunday April 13 2008

Letter Re: A Severe Storm Provides a Valuable Lesson

Hi Jim,
I'm a long time reader. I wanted to relate to you a recent experience I had, which may be of value to SurvivalBlog readers. I live in a state that is prone to tornados and severe weather. We recently had
a storm tear through our area, causing several million dollars in damage across much of the state, my neighborhood notwithstanding. My wife and I went to bed Wednesday evening, expecting only scattered thunderstorms. What we awoke to at 3:30am was much, much more than a thunderstorm. As I looked out our bedroom's open window, I saw and heard wind and rain, the likes of which I've never witnessed in all my 45 years. I nudged my wife and simply said "closet". Now, she knows her husband as the guy who, instead of going for shelter, he usually goes outside to observe and satisfy his unbridled curiosty. When she heard me say "closet", she knew it was serious.

Within four minutes, we were hunkered down in the closet, with everything we needed, including our surplus Kevlar helmets (the wife no longer thinks I'm nuts for making that purchase). I thought we were going to lose the house.

We lost only trees and fences, but we learned a very valuable lesson. We were very ill prepared for that experience. Now, I pride myself on being one of the better prepared families in my neighborhood, if not the best prepared, but four minutes is unacceptable. We now have in place a setup that puts us in the closet with everything we need in under thirty seconds (assuming the cat can be efficiently herded).

This got me to thinking; What if we had to actually bug out and leave our home? Are we prepared? I know that I'm still extremely unprepared for such an event, so that plan is now underway.

My point is this. Never, ever, under any circumstances, should we underestimate the need to be prepared for an emergency. My experience that night could have been much worse (60 hours later we got our electric power back, but we were very well prepared to go very long lengths of time without power), so I was lucky this time. You've devoted your life to hammering this home for your readers, so I thank you, once again, for the wisdom you provide. Now, it has become very real for me to actually heed that wisdom and put it into practice. A year's supply of food means nothing to me, if its scattered over a square mile of my neighborhood. Thanks, Jim, and thank you once again for SurvivalBlog.com. God Bless, - HHH

JWR Replies: Thanks for relating that experience. Anyone living in Hurricane or Tornado country should invest in a reinforced shelter, if it is financially feasible. Ideally, it should be designed to also serve as a security vault ("gun vault") and as a fallout shelter. One of our advertisers, Safecastle, has extensive experience in building such shelters. These are usually-equipped with gun-vault type doors, that open inward. If you live in an area with a high water table, they can be constructed aboveground. If you can afford to build an entire house that is highly storm resistant, then you might consider building a monolithic dome home. One monolithic dome home contractor in the Midwest that I recommend is Bill Fraley of Global Dome Builders. Phone: (715) 926-3668.

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Friday March 28 2008

Letter Re: Advice on Constructing a Secure Underground Shelter

Sir:
I have read your web site and thanks for posting it. I am presently purchasing seven acres in Wyoming with an existing log home. We are going to build a new home on the same property and would like to
invest in a good attached underground bunker. Can you please tell me where I can find decent plans and specs for a bunker to sustain five adults and three children? I would like to branch it off of our new basement. I would really appreciate it. God Bless, Mel

JWR Replies: I would recommend Safecastle. They have lots of experience with both aboveground and underground shelters. They work with local contractors from coast to coast. They use their blueprints (tailored to your specifications, on request), and supply key components such as inward-opening vault doors and HEPA air filters (assuming that you want your vault to double as a fallout shelter). The rest of the supplies (rebar, forms, concrete, etc.) are sourced locally. They have a nice four color brochure that they mail to SurvivalBlog readers, upon request. But first, see the Safecastle web site.

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Tuesday March 25 2008

Letter Re: Deep Family Roots Versus "Ideal Location" When Considering Relocation

Good Evening,
I've recently become a reader of your web site - thank you for the excellent resource.
Having read through your information on Recommended Retreat Areas, I have an additional question or two. My husband, kids and I currently live in Utah. He has family here, within an hour drive. We also live in a heavily populated area, right on the Wasatch Fault. That is worrisome. My mother, many cousins and close friends live in rural coastal North Carolina. My mom lives alone and is aging. We have thought ahead to the possibility of needing to care for her. She has a large house that is paid for and will pass on to me when she leaves this life.
My family has very strong ties to North Carolina, having ancestors in the same county for 200+ years. My husband and I have lived there together - he felt most welcome and fit in very well. We were part of a close knit church group, in addition to family and neighbors that looked out for each other. I know that the East Coast is not high on your list of places to be, and my family is in a hurricane/flooding zone. On the other hand, it's rural, the home is paid for, it's on almost two acres that can be used for small scale homesteading, and there is a family/friends support system in place. Do you feel that these things are more important than having a retreat in a specific location, i.e. West of the Mississippi? Thank you, - Mary C.

JWR Replies: As I described in my book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation, you cannot put a price tag on having deep roots in a community! Even if you were not known personally, if you are related and share a distinct surname with "one of the pioneer families", then you have an exceedingly valuable "in" in a rural area. This factor should weigh heavily in your choice of retreat locales.

My main objections to moving to the eastern United States are the generally higher population density, and the unfavorable downwind position of the eastern states in the event of a full scale nuclear exchange. You can fairly well mitigate both of of those drawbacks by:

1.) Building a home fallout/storm shelter (typically by upgrading an existing basement, or building a stand-alone shelter, such as those built by Safecastle), and

2.) By teaming up with contiguous neighbors or "doubling up" with another family that would share your house with you after TSHTF, to provide additional security for your retreat.

The only other significant limitation in your situation is owning less than two acres. Perhaps you could buy or lease some adjoining land. Good luck with your upcoming move!

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Friday March 21 2008

Letter Re: Using Natural Caves on Private Property

Sir:
My friend has a piece of property that has a cave. The initial opening to the cave is circular, about four feet in diameter. Inside the cave is a large room with a 20 foot tall ceiling and an approximately 70 foot long floor. We have been inside three additional smaller [side] rooms. Also, we have found a source of water deep in the cave. We spent the night in the cave about two weeks ago. It got cool at night, but no bats or other animals joined us.

The biggest potential problem I can think of is the relatively small opening. However, due to its small size, my friend and his wife walked by the cave hundreds of times before they realized it was an opening.

Would this make a good retreat when the stuff hits the fan?- Linda H.

JWR Replies: Caves do have their uses, particularly as expedient fallout shelters. Finding a cave with an unobtrusive entrance on a piece of privately-owned land that is under your control is very fortunate. I'm surprised that it wasn't mentioned by the previous owners at the time that your friend bought the property. Keep in mind that caves are far from vermin proof, so you would need to store anything inside in sturdy, waterproof containers. Many caves are seasonally wet, so waterproof containers put up on at least 4x4 wooden blocks are also a must.

The existence of caves is often widely known by locals, so don't consider anything you store there truly secure. It might be worth your time to make a "rock" door to camouflage the entrance. Start with a wooden framework of 2x2s, covered by doped fiberglass with a highly irregular "hilly" shape. Then prime, coat, and seal it to match any nearby rock outcroppings. There are now some amazing rock texture paints---pioneered by Zolotone--that look quite natural. One of the popular brands is "Roller Rock", made by Daich Coatings. When applied with a rough-textured roller, these coatings can be very natural looking. These paints can be custom tinted. It is probably best to bring a sample of the local rock to the paint store, and have them match the color)

Before storing anything of value in the cave, leave your camouflaging "rock" door in place for at least a full year, using a telltale. (A twig wedged into the doorjamb--if it has fallen you'll know that the door was disturbed.) Storing anything in the cave without taking that precaution is an invitation to theft. You might want to set up a Dakota Alert (or similar passive IR intrusion detection system) to see if anyone goes near the cave entrance. If you have welding skills, or you have a trustworthy friend that knows how to weld, then you might want to install a locking steel security door or barred gate back behind your "rock camouflaged" door. Just keep in mind that given enough time, a determined burglar can reduce nearly any barrier. (At this juncture I should mention that I get one or two e-mails a year from readers that have had their CONEXes broken into by thieves with bolt cutters or cutting torches.) But at the very least a locked security door will slow burglars down. It will also tremendously reduce your risk of an attractive nuisance lawsuit.

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Wednesday March 5 2008

Letter Re: A Reminder on the Terrorist Toxins Threat

Jim,

I bring this news story to your attention: Ricin Found in Las Vegas Hotel Room; Man in Hospital

The Center for Disease Control (CDC) protocols don't give one much hope if ricin is inhaled or ingested. Unclothing and washing procedures for external contact are not reassuring. Other sources indicate that skin contact is usually not fatal unless accompanied by other agents that enhance absorption. [JWR Adds: DMSO is a well-known transdermal carrier.]

Other sources also indicate that ricin is 30 times more potent than VX nerve gas. Full MOPP suit and gas mask seem to be indicated to avoid aerosol exposure. Since the lapsed time between exposure and onset of fatal symptoms can be hours and with no existing antidote, this seems to be a particularly nasty agent to avoid.

It seems to me that for various reasons, one would be more likely to encounter ricin in a terrorist event rather than the other CBR agents that are usually mentioned. In any event, one might have to rely on the rain gear and N95 particulate mask that should be in every BOB along with the standard decontamination procedures that all should be thoroughly familiar with.

Are there field detection resources and other related items that you might recommend for an ai travel BOB which will be different from the vehicle BOB left in the airport parking lot?

I think this has been covered before but it might be timely to reiterate it again. Best Regards, - William D.

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Friday February 22 2008

The "Come as You Are" Collapse--Have the Right Tools and Skills

In the Second World War, the United States had nearly two full years to ramp up military training and production before decisively confronting the Axis powers. In the late 1970s, looking at the recent experience of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the Pentagon's strategic planners came to the realization that the next major war that the US military would wage would not be like the Second World War. There would not be the luxury of time to train and equip. They realized that we would have to fight with only what we had available on Day One. They dubbed this the "Come as you are war" concept.

In my opinion, the same "come as you are" mindset should be applied to family preparedness. We must recognize that in these days of rapid news dissemination, it may take as little as 10 hours before supermarket shelves are cleaned out. It make take just a few hours for queues that are literally blocks-long to form at gas stations--or at bank branches in the event of bank runs. Worse yet, it may take just a few hours before the highways and freeways leading out of urban and suburban areas are clogged with traffic--the dreaded "Golden Horde" that I often write about. Do not make the false assumption that you will have the chance to make "one last trip" to the big box store, or even the chance to fill your Bug Out Vehicle's fuel tank. This will be the "come as you are" collapse.

The concept also applies to your personal training. If you haven't learned how to do things before the balloon goes, up, then don't expect to get anything but marginal to mediocre on-the-job training after the fact. In essence, you have the opportunity to take top quality training from the best trainers now, but you won't once the Schumer hits the fan. Take the time to get top-notch training! Train with the best--with organizations like Medical Corps, WEMSI, Front Sight, the RWVA/Appleseed Project, the WRSA, and the ARRL. Someday, you'll be very glad that you did.

The come as you are concept definitely applies to specialized manufactured equipment.You are dreaming if you think that you will have the chance to to purchase any items such as these, in a post-collapse world: razor wire, body armor, night vision equipment, advanced first aid gear, tritium scopes, dosimeters and radiac meters, biological decontamination equipment, Dakota Alert or military surplus PEWS intrusion detection sets, photovoltaics, NBC masks, and semi-auto battle rifles. Think about it: There are very few if these items (per capita) presently in circulation. But the demand for them during a societal collapse would be tremendous. How could you compete in such a scant market? Anyone that conceivably has "spares" will probably want to keep them for a member of their own family or group. So even in the unlikely event that someone was even willing to sell such scarce items, they would surely ask a king's ransom in barter for them. I'm talking about quarter sections of land, entire strings of well-broken horses, or pounds of gold. Offers of anything less would surely be scoffed at.

Don't overlook the "you" part of the "as you are" premise. Are you physically fit? Are you up to date on your dental work? Do you have two pairs of sturdy eyeglasses with your current prescription? Do you have at least a six month supply of vitamins and medications? Is your body weight reasonable? If you answer to any of these is no, then get busy!

Even if you have a modest budget, you will have an advantage over the average suburbanite. Your knowledge and training alone--what is between your ears--will ensure that. And even with just a small budget for food storage, you will be miles ahead of your neighbors. Odds are that they will have less than two week's worth of food on hand. As I often say, you will need extra supplies on hand to help out relatives, friends, and neighbors that were ill-prepared. I consider charity my Christian duty!

I have repeatedly and strongly emphasized the importance of living at your intended retreat year-round. But I realize that because of personal finances, family obligations, and the constraints of making a living at an hourly or salaried job, that this is not realistic--except for a few of us, mainly retirees. If you are stuck in the Big City and plan to Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) at the eleventh hour, then by all means pre-position the vast majority of your gear and supplies at your retreat. You will most likely only have one, I repeat, one G.O.O.D. trip. If there is a major crisis there will probably be no chance to "go back for a second load." So WTSHTF will truly be a "come as you are" affair.

With all of this in mind, re-think your preparedness priorities. Stock your retreat well. If there isn't someone living there year-round, then hide what is there from burglars. (See the numerous SurvivalBlog posts on caching and constructing hidden compartments and rooms.) Maintain balance in your preparations. In a situation where you are truly hunkered-down at your retreat in the midst of a societal collapse, there might not be any opportunity to barter for any items that you overlooked. (At least not for several months. ) What you have is what you got. You will have to make-do. So be sure to develop your "lists of lists" meticulously. If you have the funds available, construct a combination storm shelter/fallout shelter/walk-in vault. It would be virtually impossible to build something that elaborate in the aftermath of a societal collapse.

A closing thought that relates to your retreat logistics: The original colonial Army Rangers, organized by Major Robert Rogers during the French and Indian Wars of the 1750s had a succinct list of operating rules. The version of the "Rules of Ranging" recounted in the novel "Northwest Passage" by Kenneth Roberts started with a strong proviso: "Don't forget nothing." That is sage advice.

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Wednesday February 20 2008

Letter Re: Recommendation for the Movie "Right at Your Door"

Jim,
If you haven’t had the chance, I highly recommend the Lionsgate movie titled ‘Right at Your Door’. Without giving anything away, it is about a large scale terrorist attack on Los Angeles . It’s not a traditional disaster movie that tries to cover all the angles, dazzle with special effects and thrill with drama; instead it tells the story of one couple from the suburbs that most should easily relate to.

In no time at all, you see the vulnerability of the average person, and the break down of systems we take for granted, how it all leaves us practically helpless and lost. Chris Gorak, the director, does a good job of pulling you emotionally into the situation and demonstrating our susceptibility. Even the least prepared of us should take heed and learn. For the more practical and prepared, it will confirm our choice to be so.

Jim, from a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber I must give thanks for what I regard as the single best site on the web, bar none. Keep it up and spread the word. - Dfz from Louisiana.

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Wednesday February 13 2008

The Big Picture -- Grid Up Versus Grid Down--Oil, Soil, and Water

Before selecting retreat locale, It is crucial that you decide on your own worst case scenario. A location that is well-suited to surviving a "slow-slide" grid up scenario (a la the deflationary depression of the 1930s) might not necessarily be well suited to a grid down situations. As stated in my post on August 15, 2005, a grid down situation will likely cause a sudden onset variation of TEOTWAWKI with a concomitant mass exodus from the big cities resulting in chaos on a scale heretofore never seen in modern memory.

My own personal "best case" scenario is an economic depression, with the grid still up, and still some semblance of law and order. Things would be bad, but the vast majority of the population would live through it. Living in a rural agricultural area won't ensure that you'll always have a job, but probably will ensure that you won't starve.

My personal "worst case" scenario takes a lot more description: A rogue nation state launches three or four MIRVed ICBMs with high yield warheads simultaneously detonating at 100,000 feet over America's population center, preferably in October or November, to maximize the extent of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. With only six warheads arriving "time on target" (synchronized for simultaneous detonation) over, for example, Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Seattle, and Los Angeles, more than 90% of the U.S. population would fall within the footprint of EMP. With such an attack there would be hardly any initial casualties aside for those people unlucky enough to be traveling on that day. (Since EMP would disable electric flight controls, causing any modern aircraft to go out of control and crash, and the sudden loss of engine power in automobiles at the same time as a blinding flash would likely cause thousands of high speed car crashes.) A high altitude air burst would impart no blast or radiation effects on the ground. Nothing other than just EMP. But what an effect! Think of the full implications.

As previously stated, the higher an nuclear air burst is detonated, the wider the line of sight (LOS), and hence the larger the footprint of EMP effects. With an EMP-optimized attack, as I just posited, EMP would be coupled to nearly all of the installed microcircuit chips in the U.S., southern Canada, and northern Mexico. In a enormous cascade this would take down all of the north American power grids, and cripple virtually every vital industry and utility: Natural gas production and piping, municipal water systems, telephone systems (hardwire and cellular), refining, trucking, banking, Internet services, agricultural machinery, electrically-pumped irrigation systems, you name it! 95% of cars and trucks would be inoperative. With the dependence of the power utilities on computers, I have my doubts that they would be able to restore the power grid for weeks, or months, or perhaps years. And with the chaos of society disintegrating around them, they might not have the time or opportunity to restore the grid, even if they would otherwise have the means to do so. This would mean TEOTWAWKI on a grand scale. The words "dog eat dog" do not even begin to describe how things would become in the cities and suburbs. Soon after, as the cities became unlivable (without power, heat, water, sanitation, or transportation of foodstuffs) this would cause a massive, involuntary exodus from the cities and suburbs, almost entirely on foot, comprised of countless millions of starving people. With winter coming on, this would result in a massive die-off, perhaps as much as 70% of the American population. It would not be until after that die-off that some semblance of order could be restored.

This crush of humanity will of course head for any agricultural regions that are within 50 to 75 miles of the major cities. Hence, I would not want to be a farmer living in Pennsylvania's farmlands, California's central or Imperial valleys or Oregon's Willamette valley. They will simply get swarmed and overwhelmed.

Surviving a Long Term a Grid Down WTSHTF Situation
Even in the absence of EMP, any set of circumstances that would bring down the power grids (for example a major war, a fuel embargo, a cyber attack on power utility Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) software, etc.) would be devastating, and have a similar result. The biggest difference would be that the Golden Horde would have functional cars available--at least as long as their gas lasted. This would and Lets say that you've already moved to a lightly populated agricultural region that is more than 150 miles from any major city.
Assuming that you can avoid the ravages of the Golden Horde by virtue of geographic isolation, you will then have to contend with producing food. If the region that you selected is dependent on electrically-pumped irrigation water, then you'll be out of luck. That is why I emphasize the importance "dry land farming" regions. (Regions where consistent seasonal rains are sufficient to produce crops.) A small scale "truck" farmer in such as region, producing a wide variety of vegetables will be sitting pretty. Even with horse drawn or hand cultivation, he will have large quantities of excess crops available for barter and charity. By teaming up with neighbors and hired hands (paid in barter) for "strength in numbers" he will be able to defend what he owns. With copious produce available, he will be able to barter for harvesting manpower, horses, tools, and so forth. IMO, a man in this position and locale is the most likely survivor of TEOTWAWKI.

With the aforementioned in mind, you can see than importance of finding the right retreat locale. Ideally, it will be far removed from metropolitan regions, have a fairly long growing season, plentiful rainfall, rich topsoil, a reliable domestic water supply that us not dependent on grid power (preferably spring-fed), nearby sources of firewood or coal, and a light ambient population density. If you combine all of these factors--visualize them as map overlays--you will end up with only a few regions in north America that are wholly suitable for "worst case" retreats. Start with a photocopy of a climate book with maps of America's farming regions. Mask out any farming regions that are depending on grid-power pumped irrigation water. Then take a compass and start drawing radiuses around all of the cities with a population greater than 200,000 and shade them in. Depending on your level of pessimism about the scenario and/or your estimation of the depravity of human nature, you may be drawing some pretty large circles!

Hurricane Katrina was a wake up call. I cannot imagine how anyone could watch the television coverage of the aftermath of Katrina and not come to the conclusion that we live in a highly interdependent technological society with enormously long lines of supply and just a thin veneer of civilization, as documented in countless newspaper stories. It doesn't take much to disrupt those interdependencies, nor to expose what lies just beneath that thin veneer. Like an onion, what lies beneath is not very pretty smelling.

Get to Know the NRCS Man!
You will note that I specifically mentioned topsoil in the preceding discussion. The importance of soil quality in the event of a true "worst case" must be emphasized. As S.M. Stirling so aptly described it in his science fiction novel "Dies The Fire", soil quality is not crucial in modern mechanized agriculture. If an acre of ground produces 5 bushels of wheat versus 12 bushels of wheat it is not of great consequence when you are cultivating hundreds or even thousands of acres from inside the cab of an air conditioned $40,000 tractor, or a $70,000 combine. However, if someday you are reduced to traditional pre-industrial manpower or horsepower, where cultivating just a few acres will require monumental exertion, then the soil quality will make a tremendous difference between feeding a community, and starvation. Therefore, have the soil analyzed before you buy a retreat property! Determining the soil types within a region should be your first step--in fact even before you talk to the first real estate agent. Buying lunch for the soils specialist at the local Agricultural Extension office might be a valuable investment. On your first scouting trip to your proposed retreat region, call the USDA Agricultural Extension Office, and ask to talk to a soils specialist at the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) desk. (The NRCS was formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS.)

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Friday February 8 2008

Three Letters Re: Advice on Uses for a Disused Underground Cistern

James,

If the location is right, install what looks like access to a septic system. I'd use it for a big cache or a root cellar. Seal the entrance with concrete which can be busted out with a sledge hammer, or perhaps use lumber or brick to cover the walls of the entrance and use the original access for another purpose to hide it's original intent such as a cache of lesser importance.
- E.L.

Jim,
You wrote: "In particular, ideas on camouflaging the entrance trap door would be appreciated."

I wasn't able to clearly visualize the trap door in the garage. But if the trap door is near a wall, or is recessed at or just below the floor level I might cover the area with one of those 1/8 inch thick oil drip catching sheets of metal available at most auto stores, etc.

If I didn't need regular access to the entry, I would add some Kitty Litter to the metal sheet and perhaps set a push lawn mower on top of that.

A little easily-visible used oil added to the kitty litter for effect would probably help too. - KMA

 

Sir,
The first thing I would do is make sure this is not an old converted septic tank. If it were I'm sure you would already know that! If it is going to be an occupied shelter: The first thing I would do is to make an emergency exit to the 'room'. Dig a tunnel from the outside of the garage down to the room about half way up a wall from the yard and fill with sand. About a foot down from the yard hole place pressure treated plywood then dirt then grass. Keep a small axe, a sledge hammer, cold chisel, hack saw with metal cutting blade and a small folding shovel in the room at all times. If you ever get trapped in there you can break the wall out, let the sand fall out in the room, dig some sand out, and escape. You must always have an alternative exit an any situation.

The second thing I would do if its a room is coat the walls, floor, and ceiling at least twice with a waterproof sealer.

The third thing I would do is run a six inch PVC pipe out one wall and have it come out in the yard, screen the yard end and place a large planting pot over it with false bottom with holes in the pot. For heavier safety you could build a cement planter with holes that look like weep holes. Place a false bottom in it, and fill with plants. Inside the room you can add a hand crank squirrel cage blower. [JWR Adds: And a HEPA filter if you want the space top double as a fallout shelter.] You will need to repeat the same for exhaust air. What comes in must go out. Air, water, food goes in and comes out!

The fourth thing I would do is stock it up: water, food, blankets, sleeping bags, guns, ammo, sealable drums for poop bags, first aid and all the goodies.

The fifth thing I would do is start spending nights in it--first one, then two, then three. Make it familiar. You may find you freak out after a few days, and yet it takes weeks for radiation half life to dissipate. Get used to it, you don't want to do that under stress.

The main entry can be concealed with a lightweight fake shelf made from balsa wood. A metal plate can be hinged, fastened to the floor, covered with a rubber mat, and the light shelf bolted to the metal door from below. You can glue stuff to it to make it look like a used shelf. Rings can be welding to the under side of the metal door so chains can be installed to hold it down to keep the 'bugs' out. Just a quick thought. - Jesse

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Monday February 4 2008

Two Letters Re: Radon Poisoning

Jim,
After reading a few more snippets about Radon poisoning and checking a few sources via Internet. I hypothesize that this may be another hoax along the lines of "global warming". There are more medical professionals saying lung cancer is [caused by] diet or smoking and general abuse of the body.

If Radon has been present and naturally occurring since God created the earth, then its being blamed for illness is similar to skid-marks being blamed for car-wrecks. Global warming is increasingly being proved a hoax by the most respected meteorologists and climatologist's who say the minute temperature changes have come with increased solar output; which is now declining. Man is not so powerful as to be able to corrupt the globe as they would like to think. (Nuclear holocaust aside) I'm beginning to think the Radon scare is the same type of gag. Have you ever read the book called "The Report from Iron Mountain"? Make sure it's the early version. Thankfully, God is Sovereign over even the minutiae of Creation. - KM

 

Mr Rawles,
The link to the radon article brought back memories of my college days and a chemistry seminar on the subject. The speakers research on the subject led him to the conclusion that the EPA was fighting a costly and meaningless battle. He went so far as to say that some radon exposure was better than none. If I recall correctly, him mentioned a trial where lab rats exposed to normal environmental levels of radon lived longer than rats exposed to none. He presented it like it was a mini chemotherapy treatment that killed off unhealthy cells in the rats. He wasn't advocating seeking out radon exposure but he was trying to make the point that radon was less than harmless. I don't have any references for all this but a quick search on the net yielded the following maps:

The first is Radon levels in the U.S.

The second is lung cancer deaths per 100,000 people

SurvivalBlog readers can take this for what it is worth but I don't see the correlation between Radon and lung cancer and you won't find me worrying about Radon levels when I select my retreat location. Personally I think either private industry is pushing Radon for profit reasons or the EPA is using it to secure greater bureaucratic control and funding. - Northwest Huey

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Wednesday January 30 2008

Prepare or Die, by J. Britely

Throughout my life I have been caught unprepared several times and while nothing seriously bad happened, it easily could have.  I have been lost hiking.  My car has broken down in very bad neighborhoods - twice.  I have been close enough to riots that I feared they would spread to my neighborhood, been in earthquakes, been too close to wildfires, been stuck in a blizzard, and have been without power and water for several days after a hurricane.   I managed to get myself out of each situation, I thanked God, and tried to learn from my mistakes.  I could have avoided these situations or made them much less unsafe and worrisome if I had been more aware and prepared.  I have also tried to learn from the mistakes of others so as to not learn everything the hard way.  One group I assisted was a two hour drive into the mountains, out of gas, wearing tee shirts, and had empty water bottles (at least they kept them) (I have made each of those mistakes but not all at the same time).