I aspire to be more prepared the next time.  My preparedness includes many different aspects.  In my opinion, the most important thing I have done is to learn as much as possible about what to expect and how to deal with those situations.  The other important thing that gives me some piece of mind is that I carry and stock away water, food, ammo, books, and other tools and equipment that should help me survive a bad situation.  Be prepared!

The other inspiration for my preparations is my family.  Seeing my family suffer from lack of water or food would be very hard for me, especially if some easy and cheap preparations could have made a big difference.  Recently, a few friends and family have asked me about my preparations and how they might prepare.  I didn't have a good short answer because I have spent years learning and stocking away.  I thought of myself as more of a student than a teacher in this area, but now I think I do know enough to give some basic advice and refer them to good sources for more.  Hopefully, they (and you) can learn from my mistakes without having to waste time, energy and money on things that don't work.  Of course, I haven't been through every situation or disaster but I have made it through a few tough spots without losing my head.  My advice is based upon what I know to work and also what sounds like it would work with the minimum fuss.  I always prefer the cheap, easy, home-made solution, but sometimes it is worth the cost to get a quality item that is just too hard to improvise or where the manufactured solution is much better (such as a knife).  Keep it simple stupid (KISS) when you can.  With persistence you can get a lot done $20 at a time.

The purpose of this document is to give an overview of preparedness and the first steps to take.  I focus more on the why than the what so that you can tailor your preparedness to your own situation and budget.  I will also cite the best sources I have found for more information.  There is a lot of information out there in books, classes, web sites, and forums. Most of it is good but it is also really repetitious and overwhelming.  This document is only about 15 pages printed out (you are printing important information (not necessarily this) aren't you - since in an emergency you may not have power and need to take the information with you).  I try to keep my important preparedness documents in an expandable file folder with a tie inside a plastic crate.

No one really knows what will be the next survival situation they will face or how it will play out (will it get worse before it gets better?).  It could be getting lost hiking, the car getting two flats in the middle of the desert, a hurricane, a home invasion, an earthquake, or a terrorist attack.  You must assess your own situation and determine what you need to prepare for.  Of course some preparations will be useful in many situations including everyday life, and these are the best type.

In order to get an idea of what to prepare for, look at the types of situations that you or people similar to you have been through.  Also, assess where you live or spend a lot of time such as work and vacation.  We need to learn from the past but without fighting the last war. 

I like hiking and being outdoors, so for me learning how not to get lost and how to stay alive in the outdoors are high priorities.  These skills may also come in handy if I need to walk to safety during a terrorist attack because all of the roads and public transportation are closed.  Living in your house without power or water isn't too different from camping except for the nice roof over your head and all of your stuff.  I have also taken a first aid class.  It is pretty limited in coverage but still useful in a variety of situations.

To assess the likely dangers to where I live and work I used several sources including FEMA (free guide), DHS, Disaster Center, Emergency Essentials, Two Tigers and CBS.  Also, find your local emergency response office.  But don't rely on the government too much for planning or for help.  As we relearned with the Katrina response, their information and advice is far from perfect.  And FEMA has always said it will take 72 hours to respond.  So the way I look at it, during Katrina, FEMA (and local governments) failed to live up to its own low expectations.  But even if FEMA had been able to provide more food and water, you would still be much better off taking care of yourself.  Do you really want to be told what possessions you can hold, when to eat, when to sleep, and live in close quarters with thousands of strangers?  Sounds like prison to me.

It's A Disaster is a good book that will get you started on a plan for most disasters.  Some of their plans are a little passive for me (don't take any risks and follow all FEMA directions) and their kits lack some important things like knives.  Still, it is a very good book and a great start.  Family and friends should be included in your planning and preparations as much as they want to be, but be careful about telling people who you do not trust or know well.  You do not want to become a target in a crisis.

I think one of the best sources for thinking about what you are preparing for and what does and doesn't work is news and first hand accounts.  These are some of the best ones I have found.  A few of them seem kind of glib and bravado but the advice seems sound.

True Stories of Survival

Hurricane Katrina: http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm

Argentina thread 1: http://www.clairewolfe.com/wolfesblog/arg.html

Argentina thread 2 (some swearing): http://www.survivalmonkey.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2715

Airplane crash: http://www.equipped.com/waldock698.htm

Ground Zero: http://www.equipped.org/groundzero.htm

Karen Hood's Survival Journal (a week in the wilderness) http://www.survival.com/karen1.htm

Sailing to Hawaii http://www.equipped.com/0698rescue.htm

Tsunami http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/

Alaska http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/8017/index2.html

A list of stories

Priorities

The survival Rule of Threes:

• It takes about three seconds to die without thinking
• It takes about three minutes to die without air
• It takes about three hours to die without shelter
• It takes about three days to die without water
• It takes about three weeks to die without food
• It takes about three months to die without hope
• Try to have at least three ways of preventing each of the above (a backup to your backup).

So the priorities are thinking, air, shelter, water, food, and hope.  These are rules of thumb and approximations.  Also, you will likely start feeling really bad before you die so you need to be proactive in addressing these needs.

Thinking
Basically, don't panic and do something stupid.  This is easier said than done, but you can build your thinking skill and confidence by playing “what if” games. After reading about the risks to your area and the survival stories above, think about what kinds of things could go wrong and how you would deal with them.  The more detail the better.  What would you do if a cat 5 hurricane was projected to hit your house?  Where would you go?  What would you take?  Would it all fit in your car?  Do you have enough gas to get there if the gas stations are closed?  What if you don't have time to leave? What room in your house is safest (can you reinforce it easily)?

If you are facing a serious situation but no immediate threat, take the time to consider your options before rushing into a course of action.  Take an inventory of what you have on hand and what is around you.  Think of how each item could help solve one or more of your priorities. 

Thinking about these things may be scary but it will be less scary when it actually happens if you have thought it through.  Focus on what you can do to improve things and not on what you cannot change. Thinking can also be more long term as in learning and planning.  I suggest you read some of the sources below and then come up with a plan for several types of situations that you are likely to face.  But don't delay, you can take some first steps outlined below, such as storing water, right now.  You can then read more, take classes and collect useful items.  Preparing is a process not a one time event.

Air
Having breathable air is not something you usually have to worry about, but it is an immediate priority if you do.  First aide can help with choking and bleeding (which causes the body to not get needed oxygen). Hundreds of people die from carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide poisoning every year because of gas leaks and cooking or heating indoors.  Being at altitude can also make it harder to breath.  Finally, a terrorist attack could put dust, chemical, biological, or nuclear contamination in the air or force you into a shelter that needs ventilation.  Be aware of these dangers and have appropriate detectors if possible (smoke, carbon monoxide, etc.).  A wet cloth or hand wipe (carry on airplane) to breathe through can help for dust or smoke.

Shelter is mainly about staying dry and the right temperature, but you also want to avoid sunburn, bugs, animals and other dangers.  Your house is your usual primary shelter but it could become damaged or you may have to evacuate.  You should have emergency repair items on hand such as tarps, lumber, shovels, nails, plastic sheeting, crowbars, and a saw.

Your clothes are your first and most important layer of shelter outdoors.  Clothes protect you from heat, cold and abrasions.  In general silk, wool, and synthetic materials are better than cotton especially to keep you warm in cold wet weather. I find cotton more comfortable especially in hot weather, so I compromise and wear a cotton shirt and shorts, but carry a better shirt, pants and socks in my bag, as well as additional layers and a change of underwear.  This makes my pack a little heavier, but I have been cold and wet in the wilds and that is miserable.  For me, a hat and sunglasses are indispensable.  I try to always carry at least a light water resistant jacket or poncho (with a garbage bag as a backup).  For me, boots are the only sensible walking shoes.  Find some that are rugged and comfortable.  Have extra laces and a backup pair.

You can carry a tent, a tarp or garbage bag for resting and sleeping.  A tarp can make a simple shelter or an elaborate one.  Rope, twine and tape are also useful.  You can carry some type of staff or tent poles or make them with an ax or saw.  Mosquito netting is necessary in some places.

You should have many ways to start a fire since most are cheap and compact.  At least have a lighter, matches, and flint.  You can also build a firebed to sleep in if you have inadequate shelter from the cold.

Water
This is a crucial area that can be helped a lot with very cheap and easy actions before The Schumer Hits The Fan (TSHTF).  This is probably the thing you can do with the highest payoff for amount of effort.  The only problem with water is that it is heavy and can take up a lot of room.  If you have storage room and are staying home this isn't a problem but if you are on the move it can become a driving factor in your progress.  Long term solutions are also difficult if your primary water source (city water or well) goes out and you are not near a river or lake. 

Used plastic soda bottles and orange juice jugs with screw tops make very convenient water storage containers.  Just rinse them a few times with hot water. Old liquor bottles and wine box bladders work well too.  I also have several canteens and rugged 5 gallon containers with taps.  The five gallon containers weigh about 40 pounds each and are about as big as can be easily moved (larger drums can go in your basement or garage or under a rain spout).  A few collapsible containers might also be useful because they can be stored and carried empty.  Tap water can last for years without going bad if kept in a cool dark place.  But you should check water that has been stored for clarity and odors.  If in doubt, treat it with one of the methods below.  You can also freeze the plastic soda or orange juice containers (these do crack sometimes when freezing) and use them in a cooler to keep food cold if the power goes out before drinking it.  If you know a disaster is coming fill up any container you can including the coffee maker, crystal vase, bucket, bathtub, sink, and kiddy pool (some of these could be spilled or contaminated but hopefully some will make it).

Most sources recommend about a gallon per person per day.  People consume about 2 quarts in cool low activity environments but much more if hot or active.  You should have at least 2 weeks worth per person in your primary residence (but why not have months worth if you have the room).  If you are traveling by car, three days worth per person is minimum (more for bathing), and if you are walking take as much as you reasonably can carry but at least one days worth (several small bottles are better for diversification if one leaks and also to let you know to start looking for more water before you are on your last bottle).  I also store extra water for washing and bathing.  Here the container doesn't matter quite as much.  I use old liquid detergent jugs.  You should also have at least two methods of sterilizing water. 

The first step in sterilizing water is to get the water as clear as possible.  If it is cloudy, strain it with coffee filters, a clean cloth, or sand.  Or you can let it settle and pour off the more clear water. 

The primary and most reliable method of sterilizing water is boiling.  You actually do not need to boil the water just heat it past 145 degrees for long enough. But if you don't do it right you can get sick.  So to be safe, boil it for 5 minutes if you can.  If you are walking, a metal cup (enamel or stainless) or a converted tin can is easier to boil than a full pot.  You can carry a backpacking stove or a Kelly Kettle.  You can use solar power to sterilize water (in a soda bottle) if no cooking is possible.  Other stoves are suggested below under food. 

To sterilize water with bleach use 2 drops of plain unscented bleach per quart of water (or 8 drops per gallon or 1⁄4 tsp per 2 gallons).  If you don't have a dropper you can wet a paper towel and then drip it (wear gloves).  Let the water sit for 20 minutes and then smell it.  If it smells like chorine then its good to go.  If it doesn't, repeat with the same amount of bleach.  If that doesn't work try to find other water.  (Really bad water or salt water requires a still.)  Bleach is cheap but does not last forever - rotate.  Dry Calcium Hypochlorite {sold as "pool shock" bleach) stores much better than liquid bleach but requires an additional step of mixing a solution. (It provides a very inexpensive long term solution to water treatment).

There are also Potable Aqua iodine tablets that are more compact for sterilizing water.  You can also use Tincture of Iodine.  Iodine and chlorine are poisons so be very careful (kill the bacteria not yourself. [Avoid ingesting chlorine or iodine crystals!])

Any of the chemical treatments can make the water taste funny.  You can use drink mixes to make it taste better.  I'm not sure if sports drinks are really better, but Gatorade seems more thirst quenching to me than water.  The powder form is more convenient and cheaper.  You can also make your own sports drink (1/4 tsp nu salt (potassium chloride), 1⁄4 tsp salt, 3-6 tbsp sugar (to taste), juice of 1 lemon (or orange), and optional flavoring (Kool-Aid) per gallon of water) or switchel.        

Of course you can spend money for water if you want to.  You can buy prepackaged water or expensive filters. There are backpacking filters but I have found these to be temperamental.  A water bottle with a filter would be a good backup or a straw. You can also go the more expensive route with a good gravity fed filter like this: http://www.doultonfilters.com/gravity.html.  This is a great looking solar still but doesn't appear to be for sale right now. 

If you are a homebrewer (or like beer), you can add some dry malt extract, hops, and dry yeast to your stash.  Beer is boiled as part of the brewing process.  Then the alcohol and hops act as a natural preservative.  For the long term you can get some sproutable barley, grow some hops, and culture yeast.  If you or someone with you doesn't handle alcohol well, skip this. 

Food
Providing food can be as easy or complicated as you want.  The easiest thing to do is simply buy more of any food you normally buy that stores well.  By store well, I mean does not spoil.  Foods like fresh milk, meat and bread do not store well.  Other foods like rice, dried beans and pasta all store well and are cheap.  They eventually lose some of their nutrition but this is gradual and will not make you sick from eating “expired” food if you forget to rotate.  I do not list exact rotation schedules because every source is different.  Some sources say grains only last one year but most sources say 10 plus years and other credible sources say hundreds or thousands of years.  It all depends upon how it is packed and where it is stored which is discussed below (vacuum packed, cool and dry are best) Canned meats, fruits and vegetables store okay and are more expensive.

How much food you want to have on hand depends on what type of situation you expect and how much you want to spend.  Buying a month' worth of rice, beans, salt, and pasta will not cost much (and is a good start).  You will be a lot happier if you add:

• canned or dried meat (Costco and BJs have multipaks of Spam, ham, tuna and chicken for under $10)
• canned or dried fruits and nuts
• canned or dried vegetables
• dried potatoes
• canned or dried sauces (for pasta, chili, etc.)
• soup mixes (bean soups are cheap) and bullion
• dried onions
• parmesan cheese
• cooking oil
• ramen noodles
• peanut butter
• mayo
• vinegar
• sugar and honey
• powdered milk
• bread crumbs, stuffing, oatmeal, cereal
• flour, pancake mix, biscuit mix
• baking soda
• cocoa, instant coffee, tea, drink mixes, juice mixes (cranberry)
• lemon juice
• dry yeast
• spices 

Some of these can be eaten without cooking or water if you have to.  Costco is great for the rice, canned goods, bullion, yeast (2 pound box), cooking oil and spices. Don't forget a can opener and other utensils.  Of course you can do the drying (wood or solar) and canning yourself for better quality and lower cost.  The oil, flour, baking soda and yeast (refrigerate the yeast if possible) do not store well and have to be rotated more frequently than the rice, beans and pasta.  You will be healthier if you add some multivitamins.  There are also luxury items like Powerbars, powdered eggs, powdered cheese, powdered butter, food tabs, and meals ready to eat (MREs).

To decide how much you need, you can simply scale up recipes and meals (print some simple recipes that use your stored food).  How much rice and beans would you eat at a meal or in a day if that was all you ate?  A lot probably (make a meal as a trial).  Now multiply that by the number of people and the number of days and you have a ball park of how much to store.  The problem is that you could end up feeding more people than your immediate family.  Who else would you not turn away? (Anyone you wouldn't want to live with normally is not someone you want to be stuck with in a crisis.  That said there is some family I wouldn't turn away even if they deserve it).  Start with the cheap stuff (rice, beans, pasta, salt) and then slowly keeping adding and rotating the other food until you have at least one months worth.  Do an inventory at least twice a year.

Store everything in airtight/waterproof containers inside a tough container in a cool, dry, dark place.  Some things come packed pretty well and can just go in a plastic bucket or crate (cans can be dipped in wax).  Other items should be vacuum packed in small bags or large mylar bags with oxygen absorbers and then put in the plastic bucket with a lid or crate (with a solid latching lid).  If you don't have shelves, you can make shelves out of the buckets or crates and 1”x12” lumber.  Put 2”x4”'s under the bottom shelf to keep it off the floor.

For years worth of food instead of months worth of food we need to move to grain and grain grinders.  The Church of Latter Day Saints are the experts here.  They also have storehouses that will sell to the public if you are polite.  Of course you can buy online but the shipping will be as much or more than the food.  I went cheap and was able to get about six months worth of food for one person for $100.  I stuck to grains (400 lbs/year), beans (40 lbs/year), soup mix (20 lbs/year), and milk (16 lbs/year) (I already had sugar (60 pounds/year), salt (10 lbs/year), oil (5 gallons/year), baking soda and yeast).  I borrowed some of their equipment to pack some of the food, the rest I packed at home in the mylar bags and buckets described above.  The milk is a sticky powder and very messy (think of spilling flour and multiply by 100), repack it outside if possible.  I also bought a hand operated grain grinder to make flour from the wheat.  Then I can make bread (scale this recipe up to one loaf per day for a year as a cross check for a year's supply).  This would be a pretty miserable diet but I think it would keep me alive and healthy if I had enough vitamins.  Because of the sack size I have more of some things than others so towards the end I may be eating paste.  I hope to upgrade later.  For infants you need more milk, oil, sugar, and vitamins from which you can make an emergency formula (breast feeding is better, then you give the extra food to the mother). 

For even longer food solutions you need to farm.  Supplementing your food with a garden or sprouting would also make things last longer and provide some healthy variety.  Its best to have some non-hybrid seeds on hand or save seeds from your garden.  Serious (expensive) seed packages are here.  Have some fertilizer and pesticides on hand but in the long run organic is the way to go.

For cooking you can use a wood burning stove, barbeque, or camp stove in the short run (have some extra fuel on hand).  The Petromax lantern is pricey but well made and also has a stove attachment.  If you don't have one of these or run out of fuel you can build one: a coffee can stove, a bucket stove (avoid galvanized metal), a alcohol stove, a collapsible stove, a tin can stove (simple version), solar oven (portable version), or a clay stove (print directions for making at least one of these).  This is also a good commercial stove for those with cash to burn.  These are much more efficient than an open fire.  You need a good pot or dutch oven for boiling water and cooking.  For more portable food you can go with MREs, make your own or stock what ever you would normally backpack with.

Hope
Hope is different for everyone.  It can be safety, comfort, companionship, or normalcy.  For me it is mainly hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel.  I can work hard and persevere if I know eventually things will get better.  This means long term planning.  So I want to have what I need in the short term but also have some hope for the long term (so I have gardening tools and seeds in addition to rice and spam).  You also want comfort items such as a book, Bible, game, coloring book, pictures, beer, tea, or warm shower.  Some of these can be dual purpose such as a book about hiking or gardening, survival playing cards, or a novel about survival and perseverance. 

Equipment
There are lots of things you can get, but you can also just organize what you have already.   The number of lists seems endless and what you need depends upon the situation, your skills, and your budget.  Here is what is wrong with the DHS kit  I have already mentioned several items above and list some others here but being comprehensive would take a lot of space (read the links and references for more).  Here are some basics.

All types of camping equipment and tools come in handy but can be expensive (shipping can be expensive too so you may want to make your own, try your local yard sales, craigslist, sporting goods or hardware store first).  You may want a small tent to carry and a larger tent to put in the car.  Sleeping pads are as much for insulation as for comfort (learned the hard way—you don't want to be in the cold without some insulation between you and the ground).  A hammock can be multipurpose.  You can try your local hardware store for lanterns or Lehman's (they also have candle making supplies).

I suggest four knives for anyone responsible enough to have one (in general you get what you pay for, but start cheap and upgrade later): a folding lock blade knife (buck and gerber are both good reasonably priced brands), a Swiss army knife (with saw blade) or leatherman type knife (pliers are handy), a solid full tang knife, and a machete or short sword for brush.  A kitchen knife can work until you get any of these.  A hatchet would also be useful.  Keep them sharp.

You need several maps (local, state (small scale and large scale), neighboring states, topographic and road) and a compass.  A GPS is optional but very handy.  There are usually welcome centers along interstates and in some cities that hand out free maps.  The USGS is a good source for reasonably priced maps but sometimes it is a bit hard to find what you are looking for.  They have a catalog for each state that really helps. They are also very friendly by phone but still prefer if you order online. 

You should have at least one non portable (plug in) phone that can be used with the power out.  Medicine, diapers and feminine products will be hard to get.  A generator is great but can be expensive and you must have enough fuel (I don't have one but want one).  Solar powered battery chargers are really slow but might be the only option.

Change your attitude, don't be wasteful, and you can reuse many items. A tin can becomes a cup or pot with a little work.  Use both sides of a piece of paper and then use it as insulation or tinder.  Waste not, want not.  This also minimizes trash as there may be no trash pickup.

Stuff you almost always carry

You should make a small kit that fits in your pocket or around your neck.  This should include:

• ways to make a fire (matches, mini bic, flint, etc.)
• a button compass
• a small knife or razor blade, broken hack saw blade, small file
• Swiss Tech Micro-Tech 6-in-1 Tool
• led light
• small candle (light or fire making)
• a saw
• short piece of wire
• parachute cord (as much as will fit)
• iodine tablets
• sturdy needle and thread
• individual salt servings
• food tabs, hard candy, bullion or individual parmesan cheese/sugar (if space permits)
• freezer bags (water)
• nails (assortment)
• trash bag if it will fit (poncho or tarp)
• dental floss (twine)
• Advil, Imodium, Benadryl, vitamins, band aids, SPF chapstick any other essential medicine for you or your family (all labeled)
• fish hooks, split shot, fish line, safety pins.
• Survival cards can go in kit or wallet (you can make something similar). 

Personal Fanny Pack (or vest)

This should be small enough and attached to you so that you do not put it down even when you take a break.  Take it with you on any hike, drive or emergency.  A large fanny pack works well or Ranger Rick suggests putting everything in a vest and a bamboo walking stick.  You can duplicate some of the items in your mini kit but add substantially.

• Survival cards or pocket survival guide (or print some out).
• Knife of your choice (another one can go in your pocket or on your belt)
• Sharpening stone (or ceramic insulator)
• Fire materials (matches and tender (dryer lint, cotton balls in Vaseline, small candles, etc.) waterproofed)
• Magnifying glass wrapped in bandana
• Pliers if your knife doesn't have them
• Compass
• Maps
• Metal cup (boiling water)
• 2 small bottles of water
• Freezer bags (organization, waterproofing and for more water)
• Small camp soap (or traveler's shampoo)
• Iodine tablets
• At least 2 trash bags (clear for still and heavy black for shelter), or tarp and poncho, or space blanket, or light weight jacket with hood (a shell that compacts) or hat
• Rope, twine and wire
• Headlamp and extra batteries
• Candle
• Wipes (these are multipurpose and are more compact than toilet paper, keep them in zip lock bags (add a little water if they get dry))
• Gloves and socks
• Small first aide kit (including prescriptions)
• Sunscreen and bug repellant.
• Whistle
• Snacks (powerbars, trail mix, food tabs, tea, Gatorade mix, bullion, beef jerky, MRE)
• A GPS, FRS radio, am/fm radio, cell phone, or CB can go in here if it fits
• Mini binoculars (to spot landmarks, approaching fires, etc.)
• Notepad and pencil or pen
• A multipurpose tool is a good backup for the other items.

72 hour kit (or less)

To some, the 72 hour kit is everything they have in their house for disasters.  I think this should be what you take with you if you have to evacuate (even on foot).  If you can't carry 72 hours worth of food and water (that is a lot of water even if you only plan 2 quarts per day), scale it down and put the rest in a car bug out kit that can be used in your house or on the road.  You can also make a similar kit for work or other places you are likely to be in an emergency.  It should be in a medium sized backpack that you can easily carry (get a rain cover for the backpack (or make one)—these really help in wet conditions).  Again, repeat items in your smaller kits as you see fit.  Here are some suggestions:

• It's a Disaster! Book (or print out a similar one)
• Personal mini-kit and fanny pack or vest (attached to you separately from the backpack)
• Water (as much as you can fit without making the bag too heavy, you can carry some containers empty and fill them later)
• Changes of clothes (several underwear and socks, long underwear)
• Jacket, hat, and sunglasses
• Sleeping bag or blanket (and compact pad), hammock
• Soap and other toiletries (comb, nail clippers and razor)
• Small stove and/or lantern (or directions and supplies for making one of the stoves above)
• Small tent or tarp and netting, plastic sheeting, tent poles and stakes (multipurpose)
• Stuff sacks, mesh bags, pillow cases for organization
• Duct tape
• Hatchet or machete, folding saw
• Small shovel
• Rope, twine and bungee cords
• Backpacking pot/pan
• Cooking and eating utensils (kitchen knife, can opener, spatula, spoon, forks, plates, cups)
• Foil
• Dish soap, sponge, dish pan or bucket (collapsible) (also a wash basin or bucket), towel
• Food (Snacks and MREs as well as rice)
• Vitamins
• Detailed road maps
• topo maps
• Extra ammo
• Pocket warmers

• A GPS, FRS radio (everyone with a list of channels to use), am/fm radio, solar calculator, or CB (whatever you have that fits)
• Copies of important documents, phone numbers, extra credit card, cash, ID
• Comfort items (book, cards, bible, pictures, coloring books, games)

Car Kit

Keep this in the car if possible.  I used to keep a lot of this in my car but since some of it was stolen, I keep most of it in the house and load it up for longer trips.  I have something similar to the personal fanny pack that I keep hidden in the jack compartment.

• 72 hour kit
• Flashlight and batteries
• Fire extinguisher
• Jumper cables
• Seat belt cutter and window breaker (keep within reach)
• Water (bottles can go under the seats)
• Matches
• Gloves
• Tarps
• Garbage bags
• Wipes
• Maps
• Driving compass
• Rope and/or tow strap and bungee cords
• First aide kit (any medications)
• Siphon hose for water or gas (do not drink gas)
• Window washer/scraper
• Crowbar and other tools (hammer, saw, wrenches, duct tape, fuses, belts, and screws)
• Ax, bucket and shovel (this is required in some forests)
• Engine oil
• Gas can (keep it empty and unused unless you have a place for it on the outside of your car or truck)

Stuff you take if you have to Bug Out

This is stuff that is too heavy to carry in your 72 hour kit but something you can throw in your car (in addition to what is already there) quickly if you need to evacuate.  You might be able to take it in a garden cart if you can't drive but travel by roads is still safe.  Here is an example to help you make your own kit (or here).  Pack it in crates or duffle bags.  Here are some suggestions (what fits in your car will vary):

• More survival books or books on camping/country/simple living
• 5 gallon water cans (full)
• Food (cans and other heavy bulky items)
• Cooler (grab some ice and any travel friendly fresh items that are still good like cheese, peanut butter, apples, lemons, and bread)
• Large first aide kit
• Dutch oven
• Stove and fuel or barbeque, Kelly Kettle
• Lantern (Petromax is good but expensive)
• Unscented bleach
• Tent and large tarps, rugs
• Blanket and pillows (sleeping pad, hammock, or cot)
• Paper plates, utensils and cups
• Paper towels and wipes
• Foil
• Solar shower
• Bucket toilet (you can store garbage bags, toilet paper, wipes, and soap inside the bucket)
• Many garbage bags
• Laundry soap
• Clothes pins
• Soap and shampoo
• Ant traps and insecticides
• Fishing gear
• Radio and batteries
• Several extra fuel cans (enough to get to your destination without refueling)
• Propane heater with fuel
• Generator
• Small safe for guns and documents
• Bikes (on rack and with pump and tire repair kit)
• Frisbee or other games

First Aid and Medical Kits

Take a first aide class and more training if you can.  For supplies, the place to start is with a pre-made small portable first aide kit and a larger home or car first aide kit.  These are usually $10 to $20 on sale (but can be $100's if you want).   You can add items from your medicine cabinet and replace things like the cheap scissors that usually come with them. However, these usually are not good for much more than minor cuts and scrapes (going to a hospital/doctor may not be an option or may take a while—so do your best until you can get to one).  For more serious injuries you probably have to make your own kit.  The best book is Wilderness Medicine, by William W. Forgey.  His suggested kit in the back of the book is great (I learned the hard way I needed some of the items that he recommends and figure the other items are ones I may need in the future).  Amazon and Moore Medical have most of the items if you can't find them locally.  For the house or car first aide kit, I suggest a hard sided box like a tool box.  Dental care is also important.  A toothache is really distracting. A little dental kit like this could make you a lot more comfortable until you can see a dentist.

Other Kits

Make other kits as you see fit.  I have a kit that is mainly in case of terrorist attack (I live and work too close to a likely target).  I have Jane's Chem-Bio Handbook and what to do if a nuclear attack in imminent as well as Potassium Iodide (seven days), plastic sheeting, duct tape, Tyvek clothes coverings,  and a face mask (this is not as good as a gas mask but its what I have).  You can spread this to your other kits if you want.

Security
Protecting yourself from criminals is as natural as buying a fire extinguisher to put out fires (but more expensive).   Get fences, dead bolts, and lock your windows at night but if someone really wants to get in your home they will.  Police take an average of 11 minutes or more to respond to violent crimes 40 percent of the time (sometimes hours), under normal conditions. A lot can happen in 11 minutes and you are going to wait a lot longer in a crisis.  When someone is kicking in your door, it is too late to go buy a gun.  You are on your own.  Relying on the kindness of someone breaking into your home is not a good bet.

If you are a gun person, pick your own gun.  This advice if for those who don't own a gun or don't shoot.  I suggest a pistol, a rifle and a shotgun for every adult (check you local gun laws).  If I had to only have one gun it would be a shotgun because of their versatility.  A 20 gauge shotgun is more than enough for most purposes including home defense and has less recoil than a 12 gauge.  The Remington 870 is a great choice but many people also like Mossberg.  Take a class on using the shotgun for home defense.  For home defense ammo, I use bird shot.  This will not penetrate and stop a criminal as fast as buck shot but is also less likely to go through a wall and hurt an innocent person.  Make your own decision here based on who is in adjoining rooms and how close the neighbors are.  You can always load bird shot as the first few shells followed by buck shot (keep about 200 rounds on hand because it will be hard to buy in a crisis).  The only options I recommend are hearing protection, glasses, a cleaning kit, a sling (guns with slings don't get set down in bad places as much) and maybe a light or night sights.  I think the factory stocks are fine. 

Next on my list would be a .22.  The Ruger Single Six is a nice revolver that is convertible to either 22 LR or 22 magnum (This might be a better choice as the only gun for some people). Also get a holster for it.  Savage and CZ make bolt action rifles that are great bargains. A .22 is a little small for home defense (it is less likely to stop a criminal in his tracks) but a lot better than nothing.  It is also important to be comfortable with your gun and a .22 is fun to shoot so you are more likely to practice (.22 ammo is very cheap and you can get 1,000 rounds for about $20).  As soon as you are comfortable with the .22 and your budget allows, you should probably upgrade to a larger common caliber (.357 for a revolver, 9mm, .40 or .45 for an automatic pistol, 12 gauge for a shotgun, and .223, .308, 7.62x39, .30-30, or .30-06 for rifles).  Get a concealed weapon permit if your state allows them even if you don't plan on using it (carrying a gun).  Again, these take some time to get so you have to get one before you need it even if you think that will be never.  Also, the required classes are really great and focus mainly on when not to use a gun.  Almost any gun range will offer such a class (and many others that are worth it too).  In general, buying a used gun is fine (simple guns are very durable) but for the guns I recommend here, the premium for a new gun (gun store or some sporting good stores) will probably be less than $100 and probably worth it to avoid any mechanical issues to start with.

Learn the gun safety rules and locking up any guns not on your body is a good idea and a necessity if you have kids (or adults who act like kids) in your home.  For pistols you can get a cheap keyed safe for about $20 (also good for documents).  Then you have to hide the key where you can find it quickly but no one else can.  A combination safe is better but a lot more expensive (practice opening it in the dark).  For long guns you can get a locking cabinet for about $100 (some cases have a good lock and that is a good idea for taking with you in the car), put a lock on a closet, or get a real safe for about $1,000.  Trigger locks are generally a bad idea because you can accidentally pull the trigger when getting them on or off.

If you decide against a gun, at least get pepper spray, a baseball bat, or a flashlight.  A self-defense class would be good too (martial arts classes are good but take a long time to become practical). A bullet proof vest and helmet would be good but neither is inexpensive.  Finally, there is safety in numbers.  Staying with family and friends during a crisis is a good idea if resources and space allow.

First Steps

1. Buy some unscented bleach and start storing water.
2. Start accumulating food and other supplies.  Initially, just buy more of the food that you already buy that stores well.  Re-pack as necessary.  Get some food grade buckets or plastic crates and find a cool dark place.
3. Start reading more about the risks that you face personally and ways to deal with them.  What is your plan to deal with each?
4. Organize your stuff into personal mini kits, personal fanny packs (or vests), one or more 72 hour kits for each person for each location they spend time, a car kit, a bug out kit, and your house stash.
5. Practice.  This doesn't have to be a military style exercise.  Try camping and living without power and running water (in your backyard to start with).  Load your car with what you think you would want to take if you had to evacuate.  How long did it take?  Did it all fit?  Try driving back roads to get out of town.  Go hiking with your 72 hour kit. 
6. Periodically take an inventory and revise your plans.

Books and other sources (in order of relevance and grouped)

Online Resources

SurvivalBlog (the best daily variety of all types of information at a good price too)

Alpha Rubicon (The "Mythbusters" of the survival world. Membership required for most information, great information and more personalities than members)

• It's a Disaster! ...And What Are YOU Gonna Do About It? by Bill Liebsch, Janet Liebsch
• Wilderness Medicine, by William W. Forgey (a similar but slightly less relevant online book is Where there is no doctor (ignore the socialist ramblings))
• Basic Essentials Camping, by Cliff Jacobson  (He has other good books too)
• Backwoods Home Magazine
• The Encyclopedia of Country Living
• Homesteading      
• U.S. Army Survival  (Costco was selling this for $10)
• SAS Survival Handbook, by John Wiseman
• The Essential Wilderness Navigator
• Survival Simulator
• Survival: The Last Laugh by Ron Hood (first 5 chapters online)
• Make Your Own Groceries
• How to Survive Library
• The Merck Manual of Medical Information
• Physicians' Desk Reference
• Tactical Pistol Marksmanship by Gabriel Suarez (He has some legal problems but this is a great first book for shooting)
• Survival Notes, Melbo

Fiction
Some of these are a bit far fetched and depressing (worst case) and mainly about TEOTWAWKI  (sing “It's The End of The World as We Know It, and I feel fine" ) (they are fiction) but still give some good food for thought.

• Earth Abides
• Lucifer's Hammer
• Patriots by James Wesley Rawles
• Lights Out
• Alas Babylon
• The Rift
• Hatchet
• My Side of the Mountain
• Tunnel in the Sky
• The Edge
• Cast Away

Author's web site: www.PrepareOrDie.com

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Thursday January 3 2008

Sources for Free Survival and Preparedness Information on the Internet, by K.L. in Alaska

Recent comments in SurvivalBlog provided excellent advice on using the public library. You can gain lots of knowledge with no expense, then purchase only those books you want to keep on hand for personal reference. Also, many colleges and universities loan to local residents, so you can use them too, even if you aren't a student.

If your local libraries participate, a great resource is Worldcat. It lets you search for books from home, then go check them out, or get them through interlibrary loan.

What will happen to the Internet when the SHTF? There's no guarantee it will survive. Even if the World Wide Web endures in some form, most of the individual computers connected to it will not. Hopefully by then you will have already downloaded all the free info that's going to help you cope with the new world.

You may want to download a copy of information on this web site or any other web site with useful content. It would be a shame to face some disaster when all the resources of the internet are no longer at your fingertips.

 In preparation for a worst case scenario, it's a good idea to begin now to collect the knowledge that will come in handy later. You can download whole books, save them to jump drives, and keep an entire library in a very small space. All kinds of free manuals, guides, tech tips, and schematics are available on the internet; for everything from firearms to furnaces to computers to appliances.

All of the downloads listed here are in the public domain or allowable for copying. Stay away from sites that may involve copyright infringement. If you use a file-sharing site such as Limewire, Kazaa, or any site that uses bit torrents, you are not only downloading, but also uploading. Your participation involves automatically uploading to other users. If the file is illegal, you are distributing illegal material, not just downloading it. Stay away from these and stick with the legitimate sites listed below.

Keep in mind that some of this information you download might be illegal to use at the present time. You can't practice dentistry on your neighbor just because you have the book. Nevertheless, you have the right to possess this very vital information. After TEOTWAWKI, all bets are off. The information you collect today might save your life or the life of somebody you love.

Many downloads are in Portable Document Format (PDF) form, so to read them you must have a suitable program such as Adobe Reader, which is the free version of Adobe Acrobat. There are alternatives to Adobe that can read PDF files, if you prefer. Some of these files are very large. If your internet connection is slow, it's better to right click and download rather than try to read a huge file online.

Some documents you may want to print out. Others you can just leave on disc. Just be sure to store your drives safely. Not included in this list are the many web sites that are very good resources in themselves. Rather, these are the files you can download for offline viewing at a later time. Download them while you still can!

Project Gutenberg was mentioned as a good place to go for eBooks.

The Smithsonian Institution is another great resource. They have digitized many older books, maps, and documents in their collection.

Wikisource has a nice collection of free eBooks.

One way to search for books no longer in copyright is to use Google Book Search. Check "full view." If it comes up in the search, it can be downloaded as a PDF file.

A good alternative to Google is the Internet Archive which includes books, images, audio, and more. The Internet Archive also hosts the Wayback Machine, which archives copies of an incredible 85 billion pages from the internet of years past.

Over 100,000 free eBooks can be accessed through Digital Book Index

2020ok is a directory of free online books and free eBooks

The British Columbia Digital Library has an impressive Collection, including dictionaries, encyclopedias, and most importantly, the Holy Bible. It also has a Guide to other digital libraries.

Scribd is an online document library of free research articles, eBooks, and other content.

A great resource for home schoolers is the Internet's largest directory of free audio & video learning resources maintained by LearnOutLoud.com.

Check out the postings of Home Schooling On-line Resources on the The Mental Militia Forums, as well as the "Must Have" Books/reference material topic.

More than 3,200 pages related to the U. S. Constitution can be downloaded from The Founders' Constitution

Firearms For any firearm you own or plan to own, you should have a drawing of its Exploded View, which will help identify parts and how they fit together. One of the most comprehensive collections of Exploded Views is the paper edition of the Numrich Arms Catalog, which in itself is a gold mine of information and very inexpensive for a volume of over 1200 pages.

But if you only need certain Exploded Views, there are many places on the internet where you can download them for free:

Gunuts is a good place to start with hundreds of drawings. Another source is The Okie Gunsmith Shop, which is apparently no longer operating, but you can still download drawings and parts lists from its web site.Big Bear Gun Works has another good list. For pre-WWII firearms, check out Gunsworld. For examples of specific firearms manufacturers, see Remington, Browning, and SKB Shotguns

The book, The Defensive Use Of Firearms by Shane C. Henry is available as a download from rec.guns. An enormous amount of additional gun information is available on the rec.guns web site.

There are several good sources for Military Publications: GlobalSecurity.org has a huge collection of Military manuals.

Try Integrated Publishing for access to millions of pages of engineering manuals and documents.

The U.S. Army Materiel Command maintains the LOGSA web site for access to thousands of Army technical manuals.

The U.S. Air Force maintains the Air Force e-Publishing web site.

As mentioned recently, The Small Wars Journal has a Reference Library of downloadable military documents.

The Brooke Clarke web site has a good guide to accessing military field manuals

Surviving War and Nuclear Attack For a basic guide, download How To Survive A Chemical Or Biological Attack.

Nuclear War Survival Skills, along with some other very interesting books, can be found on the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine web site. This book includes plans for the Kearny Fallout Radiation Meter (KFM). If you have not bought a radiation meter, you should at least download the book for future reference. You can also get the Free Plans from The Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Nuclear War Survival Skills is also available on the KI4U web site as an online book, but not as a download.

The Equipped To Survive web site has some free ebooks, as well as books for sale: Survival, Evasion, and Recovery and U.S. Army Survival Manual FM 21-76.

The Volunteer Center of Marin County, California has prepared A Guide to Organizing Neighborhoods for Preparedness, Response and Recovery which you can copy from their web site. 

Medical Resources The Disease Net has a library of downloadable manuals on survival, weapons, emergency medicine, and less serious subjects.

Virtual Naval Hospital is a digital library of naval, military, and humanitarian medicine

The very important field manual, First Aid For Soldiers FM 21-11 can be downloaded here.

One of the best medical handbooks available is the U.S. Army Special Forces Medical Handbook ST31-91B. It can be downloaded free (as well as additional essential guides) from Delta Gear, Inc.

A newer version of the Medical Handbook, plus more great material can be downloaded from NH-TEMS (New Hampshire Tactical Emergency medical support).

The American Red Cross has some of their disaster guides online for download. For most of their material, you have to go to the local office. Some of it can be copied from the Earth Changes Media Survival Tips page. 

The Red Cross Book, First Aid in Armed Conflicts and Other Situations of Violence

The UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency book, The Ship Captain's Medical Guide

Hesperian makes available free downloads of its books for medical treatment in primitive conditions. Two highly respected guides it publishes are Where There Is No Doctor and Where There Is No Dentist.

Here is a direct link to the must-have book Survival and Austere Medicine: An introduction. Australian Survivalist Online has several additional Files for downloading.

The Department of Agriculture has a treasure trove of information for free download. This agency maintains The National Agricultural Library, a collection of free information on Agriculture, Food and Nutrition, and other related subjects.

Another USDA web site is the Cooperative Extension Service. Click on the map to navigate to various Extension offices around the country. Don't limit your search to just your own state. Many of them have invaluable information on animals, crops, construction, food preparation and much more for free download.

The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) offers downloads about preventing plant and animal diseases, among other topics.

The USDA Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) offers Fact Sheets about food handling and preparation, and emergency preparedness.

Other Important Reference Resources The classic outdoor guides, The 10 Bushcraft Books by Richard Graves are available on the Chris Molloy web site. Free manuals for electronic equipment can be downloaded from eServiceInfo.com. Another source is UsersManualGuide.com. For Ham Radio and Test Equipment Manuals, the KO4BB web site has Free Downloads, as well as LINKS to many other web sites with free downloads. A few examples of repair information for outdoor equipment are Penn Reel Schematics, and Mercury outboard parts.

Paid Services In the unlikely event that you can't find free information on the Net to fix that generator or whatever you need to repair, there are web sites that charge for information. As a last resort, you can check Sam's PHOTOFACT service manuals, or RepairManual.com. Hopefully, that won't be necessary.

The foregoing just begins to scratch the surface. Some of these free downloads are also available as books or CDs from eBay, Amazon or from some of the survivalist web sites. That is fine. Sometimes it is easier to just pay the money and buy the book. But nobody can afford it all, and downloading gives you access to millions of pages - much more knowledge than you could acquire through any other method.

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Sunday December 23 2007

Letter Re: Comments on the Movie "I Am Legend"

JWR,
My wife and I saw “I Am Legend” last night at the local theatre. The movie house was packed. Almost every seat was filled. Of the most interest was the end. As the movie faded to black and credits rolled, there were more than several spontaneous bursts of applause throughout the audience and a few cheers. Wow! The last movie that I remember ever getting applause was the last "Star Wars" installment. Something really hit deep with many in the audience…

My wife was weird’ed out by the zombies though, as they were quite scary. So viewer beware.

As for the movie, I enjoyed it, albeit the zombies are a far stretch to the imagination, the premise is not! (a viral cancer cure with unintended consequences) The self-sufficient [aspects of] survivalism were pretty close to reality (Honda generators, large stores of supplies), although preparedness was not advocated. He just rounded up (looted) whatever he needed during the day[light hours.] The desperation of loneliness was also driven home well. And although he had a very nice AR-15 rifle (my survivalist choice, although I do own a SA-58 FAL [clone]), his hunting skills sucked: Like chasing deer through the city with a high-performance Mustang, etc. Good action, dumb logic!

Anyway, I thought you would be interested in hearing about the audience response from a liberal college town (University of Virginia at Charlottesville.). Regards, - Rmplstlskn

JWR Replies: Keep that .308 FAL. In my opinion, and as previously discussed at length in SurvivalBlog in most situations it is a much better choice than a .223 AR-15 or an M4gery.

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Tuesday December 11 2007

Letter From SurvivalBlog's Brazilian Correspondent Re: New Ebola Strain in Africa

Jim,
There has been another outbreak of Ebola in Uganda, that already has killed 25 people. It is funny (in a morbid way), but the "good news" that the specialists gave about this new Ebola strain:
" ...Because of its scanty history, scientists have concluded that the strain is somewhat containable because it kills its victims faster than it can spread to new hosts..."

Sometimes, people around tell to us, survivalists: you are always "over-reacting" to threats that maybe never happen. Well, look at the reason why some medical workers die:
" ...The mysterious strain has so far infected 104 people -- including the 25 dead -- some of them medical workers who treated patients without latex gloves and respirator gowns..."
It is unbelievable: in 2007, medical workers dealing with Ebola without latex gloves and respirators. - "The Werewolf" in Brazil

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Monday December 3 2007

Letter Re: Preparedness for Less Than a Worst Case, From an Eastern Urbanite's Perspective

Hello Jim,
I am very new reader of your blog and am just now starting to go through the archives. Based on what I’ve read so far, I commend you on putting together a useful, fact-intensive blog on “survivalism” (whatever that means), that isn’t geared towards loony, off-the-reservation, tinfoil hat-type readers, who believe that 9/11 was a plot masterminded by Halliburton.

That said, one problem I suspect I will have with your blog is that you consistently seem to be preparing for an extreme, and more-or-less permanent, breakdown of society—or TEOTWAWKI, if you will. In one of your blog posts, you noted that the problem with preparing for TEOTWAWKI, is that “between now and then, you have your life to live.” This statement is particularly true for those of us who don’t live out West, don’t live in rural environments (let alone, gasp, urban east coast cities), have young children, drive a minivan, and enjoy otherwise the soft, latte-sipping lifestyles of Yuppiedom in the second Golden Age of American wealth.

My family and I fall into that category to a great deal. Don’t get me wrong: I e-ticketed most of my courses at Gunsite, so I’m no head-in-the sand sheeple. And I’m a pretty capable empty hand fighter. But I also grew up in the suburbs and didn’t exactly spend my youth learning to trap, fish, hunt, or plant seeds. I am married to a lovely wife who has no interest in learning to run a carbine, and we have a young daughter who prevents us from grabbing bug-out rucks and heading off to the bush for two weeks. In any event, if we ever managed to actually get from our 30th floor apartment in Manhattan to the bush, I’m not sure we’d know what to do.

The point I’m making is that there are a lot of people like us—people who live in cities, who don’t feel in the least bit at home in the outdoors, who aren’t going to learn about land nav or plotting azimuths, who aren’t going to buy a bug-out retreat in the country that is going to lie empty 52 weeks a year, and who are basically screwed if TEOTWAWKI actually and truly arrives.

Barring TEOTWAWKI, it seems to me that we are infinitely more likely to face moderately scary scenarios, like Hurricane Katrina and necessary urban evacuation, some urban 1970s style civil disturbance but nothing like Mogadishu, high-intensity individual criminal acts, a low-order terrorist event nearby and the accompanying panic, or some other situation shy of the worst case scenario.

We urbanites can prepare for those events, while not being entirely distracted from our workaday “ordinary” lives, or dedicating ourselves to trying to get off-the-grid. I certainly have made some attempts to prepare. For example, I have no doubt that we’re in the 99th percentile of Manhattan preparedness by virtue of the fact that we own:

- a well maintained and fueled Honda CRV with GPS, local region street maps, XM radio (for news), an empty 5 gallon gas can, and various vehicle repair tools
- a (legally permitted) pistol and shotgun, and enough ammunition for a firefight and reload under civilian ROEs
- $4,000 in cash
- a week of MREs and water, full rations
- a PVS-14 [night vision] monocular
- soft body armor
- basic camping equipment
- various tools like a good knife, a pry bar, Surefire lights, chemlights, paracord, etc.
- a fully stocked medical kit, 30 days of scrip drugs, and a copy of “Medicine for the Outdoors”
- personal hygiene gear
- a roll of 1mm poly sheeting and a ton of 100 mph tape
- full face respirators and disposable N100 masks
- GMRS radios, shortwave radio, a hand crank radio
- a ton of batteries
- a USB key and a 500 GB backup drive with all our important information
- 1 box of critical paper documents
- clothing suitable for the seasons
- baby stuff

Most of this gear is boxed, labeled, and stored in a single closet that we’ve dedicated to SHTF equipment. The other stuff (car, guns, cash, key documents, etc.) could be policed up in 10 minutes, and is written down on a checklist. If we had to, I reckon we could shelter in place for a week, or we could bug out in an hour (assuming, of course, Manhattan was not totally gridlocked).

I’d be very interested in your thoughts about what urbanites should be doing to prepare for bad times, given the restrictions of space, limited knowledge of/interest in outdoorsman skills, “Yuppie” lifestyle constraints, etc. Thanks. - D.C.

JWR Replies: For someone that lives on Manhattan Island, you are definitely quite well-prepared!

Some preparedness upgrades that I'd recommend for you:

1.) Pre-positioning some supplies stored with friends or relatives, or perhaps in a commercial storage space, at least 150 miles out of the city, on your intended "Get Out of Dodge" route. (For that dreaded "worst case.")

2.) Adding a rifle to your firearms battery. With New York City's semi-auto and magazine restrictions, you might consider a .308 Bolt action with either a small detachable magazine, or perhaps a non-detachable magazine. A Steyr Scout would be a good choice. Some semi-auto rifles that might be approved include top-loading M1 Garands and FN49s. (No doubt easier if you are a member of a CMP-associated shooting club.) If you can't get permit approval for any modern rifles, then there is a handy exemption for long guns "manufactured prior to 1894 and replicas which are not designed to fire fixed ammunition, or for which fixed ammunition is not commercially available." You might consider a pre-1894 production Winchester Model 1876 or 1886 in an obsolete caliber such as .40-60 or .45-90. (See my FAQ on pre-1899 cartridge guns for details. Be sure to select rifles with excellent bores and nice mechanical condition.

3.) A small photovoltaic panel for recharging your flashlights, radios, and night vision gear batteries.(Along with a 300+ Amp Hour 12 VDC "Jump Pack" (such as JCWhitney.com's item # ZX265545) and 12 VDC "DC to DC" battery charging trays and the various requisite cords.)

4.) A supply of antibiotics.

5.) Consult your local fire code, and store the maximum legally-allowable quantity of extra gasoline, assuming you have a safe place to store it. (I realize that most Manhattanites have their cars stored commercially with no additional storage space, and it can be a 20 minute car-juggling exercise just to get your hands on your car, depending on how "deep" you are parked.) If extra gas will be stored in your vehicle, then be sure to get one or more Explosafe brand fuel cans, and strap them down securely so that they will maintain their integrity in the even of a vehicle collision. You might consider upgrading to a mid-size 4WD SUV (such as an E85-compatible Ford Explorer) and have it fitted with an auxiliary roof rack where you can carry extra gas cans. (Again, I realize that most Manhattan parking garages have height limitations, but do your best.)

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Wednesday October 31 2007

Two Letters Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure Disruptions

James:
In deference to Ben, his numbers are a little off.
I have been spending a great deal of time studying everything I can get my hands on about a pandemic flu. (I am the Emergency Preparedness Specialist for my Church) If you go to www.pandemicflu.gov you'll see that the "experts" expect a morbidity rate (those who will become sick) of 40% of the US population.and a mortality rate that would be about 20%. If you do some quick math:
360 million Americans
144 million Americans sick
28 Million Dead.
One of the reasons that the numbers would not be as inflated as Ben states is that, while H5N1 is killing at a 50% to 70% range, when and if it mutates, the mortality and morbidity rates would be much lower. Any virus that wants to propagate itself needs to keep a higher rate of "Typhoid Mary's" just to survive. If it kills it's host too well it wont be a global threat. Think back to other viral scares. Ebola, although tragic to any who come in contact with it, it kills so well and so fast that it doesn't spread very effectively. Same goes with the SARS scare in the 1990s.
A pandemic flu will be disastrous and possibly the worst thing we have ever experienced. Couple that with an economic downturn, a massive hurricane, earthquake, flood, ice storm, or war, and it may be the kind of "event" that changes the way we look at TEOTWAWKI. Regards, - KM

Jim,
The 1918 Flu is normally used to project/predict the effects of Avian Influenza because it is the last major flu epidemic for which we have decent records. Apparently, the current virus also seems to share some characteristics with the 1918. With regards to Ben's figures on higher mortality: the fact is we don't know what the mortality rate of adapted Avian Influenza will be. Usually, when a virus makes the jump to easy transmission between humans, it loses some of it's potency. This isn't guaranteed, but it seems to be the general trend, and so the models used to predict Avian Influenza generally follow this reasonable assumption. All the predictions being made are based on history, understanding of mutation mechanisms, and the like--but they are still basically guesses, since we won't really know how the virus will mutate until it does.

I'd suggest doing some Operational Risk Management, balance the potential impact with the reasonable probability, and apply preparation resources accordingly. From my reading on the subject, there is a theoretical "tipping point" in pandemic disease casualties (whether natural or bio-warfare) where society may disintegrate--possibly between 10 and 20 million for the modern US. The projections based on 1918 are below the admittedly "fuzzy" guesstimate of this point, while the worst case (lethality of Avian Influenza remains in the 50% range without affecting its ability to spread) are well above. It's food for thought. Regards, - PSJ

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Tuesday October 30 2007

Letter Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure

Jim,
With all due respect (to Chris in Utah and the folks cited by Computerworld), "If a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people" is a fantasy, because it is based upon the 1918-1919 flu's death-rate of 2.5%, and also that the United States' population of the time was around one-third of the present number.

It was said that, in "normal" times, flu killed some 0.25% of those afflicted. In 1918-1919, that figure skyrocketed to 2.5%. Triple the U.S.'s population (in regard to the earlier 20th Century figure), and the post-WW1's death-rate goes to slightly over 2 million. But, as I indicated earlier, that's with the 2.5% rate.

In Indonesia and elsewhere, the death rate [for H5N1] is not even close to 2.5%. It is more like 53% to 60%. I made some further calculations (2.5 x 20, for starters, although that is a rather conservative figure), an came up with the following figure[s], that the death rate, in the U.S. alone (675,000 x 3 x 20), will be more along the lines of 40,500,000 (say a round 40 million, just to keep things tidy.)

Anybody who is of the opinion that a mere 1.7 million--approximately 3 times the 1918-19 rate--will be in their shrouds is living in Fantasyland. That-all is based on percentage that catches the flu, not the entirety of the U.S. population. Regards, - Ben

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Sunday October 28 2007

Letter Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure Disruptions

Jim:
I thought you and your readers might be interested in this flu pandemic exercise recently carried out by financial services firms. An article in Computerworld describes the scenario: "If a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people, hospitalize 9 million, exhaust antiviral medications and reduce basic food supplies...", and, "Among the other things that may happen in an actual pandemic are school closings, as well as blackouts or brownouts in major metro areas because of degraded service as a result of absenteeism. Internet service throughput could be reduced by 50% due to congestion, and Web browsing timeouts would become common. Airlines would cut schedules, and garbage would pile up on streets."

The article's fairly standard mainstream media flu pandemic coverage, the kind I'm sure we've all seen before. What makes this really interesting is that the scenario information used for the exercise has been posted online. It's somewhat focused on the financial sector, but there's a lot of good general information about what might happen when a major flu pandemic strikes. - Chris in Utah

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Friday October 12 2007

Homeschooling During the Crunch, by Nathaniel

Let's say that you and your family having been taking the advice provided here by Mr. Rawles and are squared away for the Crunch—you've got your bullets, beans, and band-aids, all piled high in a structurally reinforced home out in the middle of nowhere. You've got just about every survivalist book ever printed, plus the tools and skills you'll need to provide for yourself and your family. You also, of course, have the basic life skills that you'll need to simply stay alive—things like shooting, tracking, cooking, and first aid.

Have you thought, however, about the education of your children? Public schools, private schools, and universities will likely close their doors. And even if any remain open, the education they provide would be of questionable value when society is falling apart. Clearly, the most important things for children to know will be the things that survivalist parents have been teaching them for a long time—skills like shooting, cooking, sewing, and first aid—and none of those are taught sufficiently well in the typical school.

But will children really need to learn anything else during the Crunch? After all, what is the value of "book learning" when you're far from civilization, simply trying to survive? Does it really matter who wrote A Tale of Two Cities? Of what importance is learning to tell the difference between it's and its or good and well? And who cares about calculating the length of the hypotenuse of a right triangle?

Actually, all of that is important. The three R's (reading, [w]riting, and [a]rithmetic) will always be of value, no matter how bad things get, as will a variety of other subjects. Why? Because in all except the most horrific SHTF scenarios, people move out of their bunkers after several years and again begin to interact with their neighbors, first just to barter, and later to gather socially. Society eventually rebuilds, and as it does so, leaders are needed to fill the gap—people who are able to communicate effectively and think critically about the problems they face. How are such leaders raised? In part, through their education.
We've already established that traditional educational services will almost certainly be non-operational once the Schumer hits the fan, so survivalists must look elsewhere for a solution. Essentially, that solution is some form of homeschooling, because when society isn't functioning, your children will have no one to learn from other than you.

Are you ready for that? Some of you already homeschool your kids—that's great. But regardless of whether you already do or not, you may not be prepared for the day when there are no more easily obtainable textbooks, no more homeschool co-ops, no more video lectures, and no more sources of basic school supplies. Could you, with only the resources that you have now, teach your kids the important things that they need to know for the next three, four, or five years? How about the next ten?

Before going any further, let's clear up some common misconceptions. First, you don't need to be a professional teacher to be a successful homeschooling parent. College degrees in education might make you more capable of teaching a class of thirty students, but you certainly don't need a degree to teach one or two kids at a time. Second, you don't need specialized curriculum or fancy textbooks. Textbooks are a relatively new invention and can be useful in some cases, but they certainly aren't essential if you have a good attitude and the right tools.

So what do you need? Well, you need some general supplies, a few basic tools, and most importantly, books—lots of books.

The essential tools and supplies are for the most part obvious—pencils and paper are a good start, and you can stock up for pennies during back-to-school sales at major retailers. Don't settle for junk, however—you'll be kicking yourself for buying those cheap mechanical pencils when they're all breaking after a month or two of use. The best strategy is to simply buy a mechanical pencil sharpener if you don't already own one, and plenty of boxes of old fashioned yellow pencils, with separate rubber erasers still in their original plastic wrapping. Don't forget the tools you'll need to teach math, either—items like protractors and well-made compasses are essential. Something else you may not have thought of is a slide rule, since calculator screens and batteries are prone to failure. Slide rules last for decades if properly cared for, and have the added benefit of forcing their users to engage their brains. Of course, since you're going to be teaching your kids how to use these tools, make sure you know how to use them yourself.
Next up is books. This is the most important part of your homeschool preparation, simply because the right books are packed with valuable information that's accessible to anyone who is able to read—both the teacher and the student. Furthermore, it's possible to get most books for only a little bit of money—used book stores and library book sales are excellent ways to build a large library on a small budget.
The key reference works that everyone ought to own include a Bible, an exhaustive concordance, and a modern unabridged English dictionary. A complete encyclopedia would also be a valuable resource, and versions printed a few decades ago can be obtained at little cost. Your Bible and concordance should be of the same version, and the version should be both readable and accurate for serious study. Some prefer more literal versions like the New American Standard or the English Standard Version, while others like the grandeur of the King James Version or the readability of the New International Version. Get a version you like and will read, and get the concordance to go with it.

To teach your child to read, depending on age, you'll need a variety of interesting and educational books. Teach phonics and short-sentence reading, and then move on to picture books like the Frog and Toad series (Arnold Lobel) and stories by Dr. Seuss. Eventually, you'll be able to make the move to some of the older Newbery Prize winners, like A Wrinkle in Time (Madeleine L'Engle), Carry On, Mr. Bowditch (Jean Lee Latham) Amos Fortune, and Free Man (Elizabeth Yates). Other excellent children's books include The Secret Garden (Frances Hodgson Burnett), the Little House series (Laura Ingalls Wilder), The Chronicles of Narnia (C. S. Lewis), The Princess and the Goblin (George MacDonald), anything by E. B. White, My Side of the Mountain (Jean Craighead George), The Sign of the Beaver (Elizabeth George Speare), Anne of Green Gables (L. M. Montgomery) and the Redwall series (Brian Jacques). Pre-teens and teenagers ought to be able to start digesting heavier works—begin with John Bunyan, Mark Twain, and J. R. R. Tolkien, and then move on to Charles Dickens, Jane Austen, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Herman Melville, Ernest Hemingway, and other great authors. Poetry is also excellent reading material—start with the classics by poets like Rudyard Kipling, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, and Robert Service. You can also read any of these works aloud to younger kids, thereby giving them early exposure to the masters of the written word.

A strong writer is necessarily an accomplished reader, so by providing literature to your children, you are also encouraging the development of their writing skills. Writing can be improved by a lot of practice and by studying examples in literature, but resources like The Elements of Style by Stunk and White (get the 3rd edition—the 4th edition was made more politically correct by a shameless ghost writer) make it much easier. Do not underestimate the importance of the skill of writing—it forms the basis of all effective communication.

Mathematics can be taught without textbooks as well, but depending on your own familiarity with the subject, it may be difficult. Today it's not uncommon to find people who can't make change in their head or balance a checkbook, so if that describes you, make an effort to develop your math skills. You ought to be able to explain concepts like arithmetic (including long division and three digit multiplication), percentages, units of measurement, distance and graphs, and simple logic. A working knowledge of geometry, trigonometry, logarithms, probability, statistics, and calculus would be even better, but some find this difficult to attain. At this level, many will find it necessary to use textbooks, but there's usually no need to have a separate textbook for each grade: entry-level college math textbooks cover a wide variety of topics and older versions are extremely inexpensive when purchased at book sales or online. Get one that has the answers in the back of the book, or one that comes with a solution manual.
As the new society develops, there will be a need for people who understand how government works and who understand the basis of government by the people. Works like Two Treatises of Government (John Locke), The Federalist (Hamilton, Madison, and Jay), and Democracy in America (Alexis de Tocqueville) provide a better understanding of government than any civics textbook ever could, and supplementing these works with opposing viewpoints like those found in The Communist Manifesto (Engels and Marx) can generate healthy discussion.

History can be taught in a variety of ways, but one of the easiest is through biographies. Learning about the lives of people like Alexander the Great, Marcus Aurelius, Augustine, Martin Luther, Leonardo da Vinci, Shakespeare, George Washington, Simón Bolívar, Napoleon, Robert E. Lee, George Washington Carver, Theodore Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Adolf Hitler, Martin Luther King, Jr., and others can provide a basic understanding of world history. Historical fiction like that written by G. A. Henty can also be a valuable resource, because it simultaneously engages young readers and teaches history.
You may decide to teach a foreign language, or perhaps a "dead" language such as Latin, Ancient Greek, or New Testament Greek. A dictionary, grammar, and Bible in the language are all you absolutely need, but for foreign languages, a few fiction (especially juvenile fiction) books can make it more fun. It's also extremely helpful to have access to someone who already knows and speaks the language well, so make sure you know the language capabilities of the people in your retreat group.

Science is best taught through experiments, and it's often possible to incorporate science lessons into everyday life. Turn your latest kill into a biology lesson by analyzing all the organs and talking about what each does. Physics is critical for understanding bullet drop, and many chemistry experiments can be performed with supplies found in the survivalist kitchen. The theory behind these sciences can be easily discovered in a low-cost college textbook purchased at a book sale, but beware of physics texts that are calculus-based unless you're prepared to teach that as well.

Despite its reputation among the more practical-minded, art encourages creativity and appreciation for Creation. The easiest way to teach art during the crunch will likely be drawing, because all you need are pencils, paper, and a view of the great outdoors. Drawing also has practical value, because a precise drawing can communicate some information more effectively than the written word. Other forms of art, such as painting and music, require more supplies and equipment, making them more expensive and harder to continue once re-supply is impossible.

There are other subjects that you may wish to teach, such as geography, astronomy, or economics. My advice is the same for these topics—find excellent practical books on each, and let them guide how you teach. Some kids enjoy learning directly from books, but others will prefer a more hands-on approach. Use some creativity to provide the learning experience that best matches your child's style, and remember that all the information you need is hidden in the pages of the books in your library.

In addition to purchasing all these books and supplies, you should to get the experience of teaching your kids now, before you need to do it. Just like it's foolish to build an arsenal of firearms but skip weapons training, it isn't easy to suddenly turn into a good teacher for your kids. Taking the time now to homeschool will help you get ready for when it's necessary, and besides, both you and your kids will likely benefit from the additional time together. If you can't homeschool full-time due to time or financial constraints, do you best to practice teaching in your spare time, by reading to your kids and doing fun experiments in the basement. Do whatever you can, both in terms of skill development and resource acquisition, because you owe it to your children to start preparing for the day when other options are no longer available and their education rests entirely in your hands.

JWR Adds: Even SurvivalBlog readers that currently send their children to private school should plan ahead for circumstances that might necessitate home schooling. This could be because of self-quarantine during a pandemic, a natural disaster that disrupts transportation and public school schedules, TEOTWAWKI, or even just the loss of income because of a layoff. Regardless, you should plan ahead, and start stocking up on home schooling curriculum!

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Wednesday October 10 2007

Letter Re: BBC/Discovery Channel Documentary on Asian Avian Flu

Dear Editor:

The [BBC/Discovery Channel] documentary [mentioned yesterday in SurvivalBlog] on Avian Flu can be viewed via Google video.
Scary stuff. - Martin

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Tuesday October 9 2007

Letter Re: BBC/Discovery Channel Documentary on Asian Avian Flu

Hi Jim,
Last night I watched a superb two hour documentary on one of the science [cable television] channels about the coming avian flu pandemic. It was a co-production of the Discovery Channel and the BBC, so I'm sure everyone with cable television will have a chance to see it.

The documentary weaved between the predictions and projections of top epidemiologists, and a fictionalized account of the breakout in Cambodia, and its spread worldwide. The 1918 Spanish Flue pandemic was also used as a major point of comparison. All of the experts on the show said it is not a question of if, but when the bird flu pandemic explodes. They expect a 10% mortality rate minimum among the infected, with our health system totally overwhelmed. The antiviral medicine Tamiflu won't prevent but will only slightly delay the pandemic, because it has no carry over effect. That is, as soon as Tamiflu stocks run out, the pandemic carries on at full speed. They expect the pandemic to launch worldwide within a month of the H5N["X"] virus making one or two minor mutations to allow rapid human to human transmission. The new pandemic will spread much more rapidly than the 1918 [influenza] virus, because of the speed of jet travel. From the first bird flu first case in the USA to every city and town in pandemic crisis will take 90 days, according to their projections. In sum, it may take only four months from virus mutation to completely blanketing every town in the USA. Schools will be shut down, and at least 40% of workers will be off of the job, causing severe economic fallout.

They even showed and interviewed a suburban couple who are concerned enough to lay in "preps" for four months at home, including a generator, fuel, a water well etc. For once, they were not portrayed as "survivalist kooks" but more in the light of, "everyone should be making a plan like this." A main point of the show is that ordinary people just cannot grasp the speed with which this pandemic is expected to breakout and travel worldwide, or the fact that there is no medical solution to the problem. It will have to burn itself out, with many tens of millions dying. The purpose of the documentary was given as causing people to ponder and discuss the issue and begin to make their own preparations. Once the mutation and breakout happens, events will proceed much too rapidly to make decent preparations at the national, local or even family level.

I would highly recommend that all SurvivalBlog readers keep and eye out for this documentary and watch it very carefully. - Matt Bracken

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Tuesday July 10 2007

Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu is Still a Major Threat

JWR,
I am currently working on the construction of a pandemic flu vaccine facility (way too far away from my intended retreat locale, but I need to be able to afford my retreat :-) and I have a couple insights that most people and some medical folks might not have.
First, the new cell culture flu vaccine facilities will have the ability to adapt to mutating strains during production - within reason, and in-process flu vaccine production can either be stopped, or the pandemic vaccine added to the regular vaccine. That is something that is not possible with even the normal flu vaccines when they are made today from eggs ... unless they can magically pull 300,000,000 to 6 billion eggs from the grocery store shelves at moments notice. A couple years back there was a big stink about the flu companies and the CDC 'guessing' the wrong strain; the cell culture facilities should be able to switch relatively quickly to a new vaccine for a new strain. But, it will still take months from identification to the first mass-produced vial of vaccine to be available (its a relatively straight forward process to anyone who understands biopharm, but it just takes time to go through all the steps).
Second, it takes a while to build a vaccine facility. With a 3-5 year mutation rate, and the world currently being at stage 3 of the 6 stages of the standard progression of a pandemic (per World Health Organization (WHO)), it really is a race at this point. If the new ones aren't online, regular facilities could be probably be used if the timing is just right for identification prior to production of normal flu batches. Even a pandemic flu vaccine that doesn't completely match a further mutated pandemic strain may have enough antigens present to provide a touch of resistance to give more people a better chance. Or at least be a nice placebo so the people in charge can keep a little bit of calm by injecting sheeple with some worthless vaccine until a "booster" shot can be developed a few months later. If someone jabs something into your arm, accept it and thank them, but definitely don't drop your guard: keep your masks on and keep friction washing those hands (i.e., don't rely on 'hand sanitizers)!!! People still get the flu after vaccinations today, and I can't imagine that changing with a pandemic strain.
Third, all the normal flu precautions still apply as other writers have said previously: washing hands, face masks, etc. One thing that I can say that might air in your readers home preparations: The thermal lethality of the flu virus (at least H5N1) is about the same as standard flu. It starts to "die" at about 60 degrees C ... so the simple boiling of contaminated sheets/towels/etc. for 5 minutes will pretty much inactivate of the virus (us biopharm folks go 'a bit' further than this in our equipment preps, but even we recognize the absurdity of what we do).
For survival purposes, a good autoclave to have sitting around the house is a 20-quart or greater, 15-pound pressure cooker/canner). Buy a cheaper aluminum one since it typically won't come in direct contact with food. When bacteria or viruses are a concern (botulism, staph, or anything but a couple laboratory created freaks tougher than /thermopolis/), 20 minutes under 15 pound steam (atmospheric pressure + 15 pounds) will kill everything present (molds, bacteria, virii, protozoas, lice, mutant zombie gophers) whether its surgical equipment, needles, thread for sutures, or anything that you really want to sterilize. Some pressure cookers are multi-select (5, 10, or 15 pounds), but they all typically operate at 15 pounds. Plus, a good canner/pressure cooker is still required to store away next winters' food supply.
When sterility (i.e., absolute of death of all things creepy) is required, boiling is not sufficient. On television , you see people boiling a pocket knife before they cut out a bullet, um, no. Twenty minutes in a pressure cooker is the equivalent of something like a day or two of boiling at 100C to obtain the same 'sterility' (I have all the equations, but I'm not motivated enough to do the absurd calculation); and if you're at high altitude, now you're looking at sub-100 temperatures when boiling. People can boil 'living water' and make it safe enough for drinking, because the simple reduction in number of bugs is typically sufficient to allow your immune system to stop the threat, or to keep the populations low enough so they are passed through your system before toxin levels grow to dangerous or even perceived levels. Most water filters (per FDA requirements) only need to hit 99.9x% reductions in various organisms which is perfectly fine for drinking and eating. But for field surgeries, go for full sterility.
Buy a smaller stainless steel pressure cooker for anything that comes in direct contact with the food you actually intend to eat (such as that roast from the 12 year old breeding bull that you finally had to butcher). I believe in the evil of too much aluminum in one's diet; regardless of what the aluminum industry and the politicians who receive campaign contributions from the aluminum products producers tell us.
Of course, my overall confidence: I have full set of duplicate survival gear/supplies stowed away in a storage facility a couple miles from my work site on the other side of the country. And I believe that its going to be a long walk home someday. I hope The Great Maker protects us all . - NotDave

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Sunday July 8 2007

Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu is Still a Major Threat

Jim,
I am a regular reader with 40+ yrs of prepping and a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber. My current career is as a Hospital Staff Respiratory Therapist.
We recently had a seminar on the coming Avian Flu Pandemic that scared the heck out of me. The timeline for human to human vector is 3 to 5 years, if it follows the current rate of mutation. It will probably come out of Thailand, and with air travel, will quickly spread around the world, with entry to the US through the major international airports. With luck and area quarantines, they may be able to limit the spread.
When it hits, they expect a desertion rate of at least 30% of all services: Health Care workers, Police and Fire, even National Guard.
CDC, FEMA and individual hospitals are stocking up on supplies in anticipation of a mortality rate of 10% to 20% of infected cases. Hospitals may become armed camps to control the panic. Basic hospital services will become limited and rationed, no elective surgery, etc.
Hand washing, use of a particle mask and eye shields will be your best defense.

And that's the good news

The world and even the USA is not prepared for such an event. It may take 3 to 6 months to develop a specific vaccine for the flu mutation, and the flu may mutate even more.
We do not have the capacity to handle the death rate. Figure bodies stored in Refrigerated Trucks, mass graves, or cremation.
We do not have the hospital beds to handle a Pandemic. We may have to go to a ward set-up again.
If you bring in a family member, you may be drafted to help provide basic care, and you may be the best way to have good care for that person. The professional staff will be overworked.

The main killer for the Avian Flu is Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). ARDS requires intubation and use of a ventilator for survival. We do not have enough ventilators, and we are being inventive and are thinking outside the box for this one. We may have to "gang" patients on Ventilators, or recruit people to hand squeeze AMBU bags to keep people alive.
We may have to "Triage" patients and use the available resources to try to save the salvable. Factors such as chronic illnesses, morbid obesity, or even advanced age may resign patients to the "sink or swim" ward. We staff may have to do this to our own friends or family.

Contrary to my own survival instincts, I intend to be on the job when it hits. They tell us that the staff may take double the percent casualty rate of the general populace. I will keep you updated to any useful information that comes my way. - Sput

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Thursday May 10 2007

Poll Results: Why are You Preparing to Survive?

Here is the first round of responses to this question: Those who are well educated enough to see a societal collapse of some sort or another in the making fall into two groups, the merrymakers and the preparers. The merrymakers don't see life worth living post-SHTF, so they live it up now. We on SurvivalBlog are the preparers and have chosen to survive, but why? Our children? To rebuild civilization? Because the collapse will only be temporary? Because we can and we're stubborn with a stronger than normal will to survive? The following is just the first batch of responses. I plan to post at least one more batch. Please send your responses (one paragraph or less) via e-mail, and I will post them anonymously.

The survivalist is an optimist -- not merely because he/she thinks he'll make it through the crisis, but because of the (possibly subconscious) hope that something good will emerge in the aftermath. It's the logic of any kind of apocalyptic thought... Theological systems that have a conception of a climactic struggle or an "end times" imagine that, after Armageddon, we'll see the dawning of a new age. Not surprisingly, a lot of Hollywood movies follow this script, too: After the aliens are defeated, for example, in "Independence Day", mankind stands united, having put aside their differences; After catastrophic weather changes in "The Day After Tomorrow," the planet begins to heal itself, etc. Heck, this theme can be seen, too, in your fine book, "Patriots". In the same way, I plan to live not only because I'm stubborn and have a finely-tuned sense of justice -- and thus hate the idea of turning over the planet to looters, thugs, and others who would prey on the innocent -- but also because I'm both curious and hopeful about what will emerge as society reconstitutes itself.

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My modest preparation springs from the knowledge that I and the Lord are the protectors of my family (there are five of us). Our ultimate trust is in Him, but it is on me to do what I reasonably can do to protect my family from in the event of hardship and/or disaster. (After watching [Hurricane] Katrina, it seems apparent that the government cannot do that.) Anyone reading your web site thinks that there is at least a fathomable chance that our nation's run of blessing/luck will end (or be suspended) at some point in the future. Nothing lasts forever. If and when that time comes, I would never forgive myself if my family suffered unnecessarily because I did not take reasonable steps to prepare for such a time. In addition to that, it's just plain fun to learn about this stuff. (Anyone who says otherwise is lying!)

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Because the alternative is inconceivable to me!

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I’m currently going through some things in my life that are agonizing (but subject to change) and make things feel almost hopeless for me at times, yet every day I wake up again and thank God that he breathed the breath of life into me. I won’t waste that breath. I’m motivated to prepare to survive and overcome by many factors. Here are some examples:

I’m a 7th generation descendant of a settler in my current state and I’m motivated to survive by the risks my settler ancestors took, the struggles they went through, the multiple battles they fought in, the children they lost prematurely and the price they paid to be here. I recently visited some of their graves for the first time. I see it as my responsibility, honor and duty to live freely and survive. The stock I am from is cut out for it.

I prepare to survive because I’m ultra conservative, at times feeling like an endangered species or “minority” and I’m tenaciously defiant to those who would like to see my “kind” exterminated. I am equipped with a few trusted friends that are peers in regard my views (though mostly surrounded by sheeple) and have inspired some to begin to prepare. I discern a negative spiritual force is taking action to see my country’s sovereignty given away. I am motivated to be a hindrance to that spirit. My country is worth saving.

I prepare to survive because as a young man I swore an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States, despite the fact that there have been some truly sorry individuals working to undermine that Constitution since before I was born. I intend to see my oath fulfilled.

I prepare to survive because I read "Patriots", awoke to how fragile our economy really is and saw how foolishly I’d been behaving in the past (assuming life would always be normal) and am in the process of repenting of any residual foolish, sheeple-like attitudes and habits I have.

I prepare to survive because I’ve been in a city where gasoline was temporarily not available and walked through the local grocery store at 3:00 AM (less crowded) and have seen the store shelves stripped of food for a short period of time. It’s pretty convincing you need to prepare when the fuel in the tank of your vehicle and few 5 gallon cans (at the time) may be all you’ll have for a while.

I prepare to survive because if things ever Schumerize I have multiple skill sets that can help a number of people in a number of survival situations. I believe I was created to help people, when possible. I gather info, educate, discuss and leave food for thought for those who are unprepared, but willing to listen and consider my views on the subject.

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Why an I preparing? For the simple reason that I live in the middle of the midwest. Bad winters, heavy snow, and ice storms. The rest of the year heavy rain , floods, tornados, et cetera. You can't depend on the government to come through when needed, so if you don't have what you need than you are SOL! You have to be able to get by on what you have or fabricate something to do the job needed. I haven't depended on the government to help and I really don't think they have the capacity any more if ever. It will be your self and friends and neighbors pulling together that will make the difference. I prepare for me and mine so that we may be able to help others if need be. I've traveled extensively in South America, off the beaten path, and if you don't have what you need or can fabricate it than you should not be there. The same goes for having all your ducks lined up at home.

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I'm a Jesuit educated 38 year old Bachelor, Eagle Scout, USMC Gulf War Vet, working for a major aerospace company in Seattle. The reason I'm preparing is I inherited ~$500K from my grandfather, who sold the family farm in California to housing developers. He worked hard for all of us and I don't want that blessing of wealth to be squandered. I'm preparing because being prepared is what's been beat into my head since I was a kid. You can't play the "victim" card on the Four Horsemen.

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Why do I prepare? Probably because I read too much science fiction as a child! Probably because surviving is so much more interesting than succumbing. Born in the late 1950s, I remember bomb shelter salesmen and diving under my desk during A-bomb drills. I always assumed something, a war, or a pandemic, could change life as I knew it. It never occurred to me not to want to survive. Both my parents were alive during the depression, and that contributed to not taking food/housing for granted. Perhaps my uncle, who survived Bataan, or my aunt, who was a prisoner of war in the Philippines, might also have had something to do with my mindset?

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Because I believe that life is worth living, and I have no intention of simply "biting the dust" unless I give it the old college try. I believe that trying and ultimately failing is far better than not trying at all.

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Bottom line: I owe it to my family to be prepared. I could not bear to look into their eyes as they look to me for help and have to say "Sorry."

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I am a preparer. Not because I'm smarter than anyone else, but because from what I see, there just is no other choice. I do it for my family; my beloved husband who humors me but thinks I'm slightly nuts, my grown children who love me but roll their eyes whenever I speak about what is happening around us. look, I don't have any college degree or any fancy smarts, no one would call me well educated. But I can see what I can see. I read, study, research and from my angle, we are gonna be toast and I bet my surly one eyed cat that it will be ugly. so I plod along doing the best I can when can. I don't have a retreat, I don't have a bunker or fallout shelter, I don't have 10 acres or two years worth of food. But I've got God. I keep plodding on doing the best with what I have and I know He takes care of the rest.Will we survive the whatever that comes? Heck if I know. But I'm a fool if I do not give it my best shot.

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As a man of firm Christian beliefs, I believe all our days are numbered and have value. In those number of days we are to protect and provide for our our own selves, our families and so on. Examples in scripture are numerous how people were commanded to defend their homes, their cities, their neighbors, and their land. Unless we (like some were) are destined to go into Babylonian captivity I see no other proper choice.

--
I am taking what steps I feel necessary to survive in a societal collapse of infrastructure because I realize that the more intricate a system of living becomes, the more possible facets of failure are therefore created. As the machine known as Society grows in scale and complexity, so do the required aspects of its function; increasing the number of things that can go wrong, thus eventually causing a critical failure of the system. With the statistical (and historical) inevitability staring one in the face, how can someone not do everything within your power to be prepared?

--
I feel its my duty to four fathers, kids, grand kids, friends, although they are getting harder to find these days, an it just feels like the right thing to do,also its interesting,fun, a great learning expense,i spend hours on your site an i want to really thank you for it. I'm sure you make money off of it an you should, but I'll bet you are the type of person that really believe in what you do. I love my guns an have about 25 [of them], I try to go to the range at least three times a week, its the most relaxing time in my life ,by myself or with someone, I'm sure a lot of people don't understand, I love the military weapons a lot, I have .303s, Mausers, and others. I'm proud of my beliefs, thanks.

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I consider preparing my Christian duty. I'm also stocking up lots of extra food, clothing, and so forth for charity, which is also my Christian duty.

--
Myself, I am what would be called a "millennialist" based on my beliefs from the Bible. The majority of mankind is stupid and sinful. Thousands of years and we are still doing the same mistakes over and over. I do not believe in any Gene Roddenberry vision where mankind, by its own efforts, rises from the ashes and evolves into a benevolent a Star Trek society. Nothing sort of divine intervention will save us in the long run from permanent self-destruction----Now aren't I a cheerful one to invite to a social gathering?;)

Just for the record, I'm not one of those nuts that believe in trying to hasten or encourage the Second coming The world is dong a fine job all by itself.

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While I had read about survivalism and planning for a couple of years, the importance of having some sort of plan didn't hit me hard until I was living in the South, had a new baby, and [Hurricane] Katrina hit. All of a sudden the importance of having an evacuation plan, supplies, and a known destination to retreat to were very important. I am not as prepared as many of the readers, but I know where to go and what I'll do when I get there. Also, thanks to some great books on small farming and some great advice on here I know how to avoid some real pitfalls.

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I’m preparing to survive for my wife and my children, because I can and because it gives me a feeling of confidence. I say “because I can” since most of my acquaintances don’t have a clue of the probable upcoming changes in society, but of those that do have a clue they can’t prepare for survival. They can’t prepare for survival because they’re financially tapped out by having been brainwashed into living on credit today figuring somebody else will take care of them tomorrow, but it won’t be me.

And it drives me nuts. A 45 year old single female friend of my wife owns a boat, owns a camper, had two vehicles, bought a scooter and recently bought a house within the last two years. When I first started preparing for survival, my wife made a comment to her about it and her friend said when the SHTF “we’ll all be as snug as a bug in a rug.” I said“What do you mean we? I think you need to make your own preparations.”

I used to try and educate our acquaintances but have started taking more of an inquiring approach with regards to what they think are the possible upcoming changes in society. A couple we know refinanced their house to buy a travel trailer but they only camp within 45 minutes of their house because they can’t afford the gas and their tow vehicle is not reliable. I asked the husband what he thought was coming in the future, he said he figured things were going to get pretty bad. But then they just put down a deposit on a trip to Hawaii so I’ve got to figure you just can’t help people like this.

And it’s not that I wouldn’t help anybody, I saw value in a comment on your web site with regards to helping neighbors and I will. (Is it okay if I only help the ones I like?). We live in a conventional neighborhood and I wish we didn’t but at this point it would take too much of our resources to move to a property with more land. So our best defense is to bond with the good neighbors but I don’t want all our irresponsible acquaintances coming to live with us.

We have a good life and are lucky to be able to make preparations for what may come. And I am thankful for every additional day I have to get better prepared.

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I am preparing to survive because I believe the threats to our way of life are manifold. We are in a global war. China strength's grows, our borders are not protected. Our government is shredding the constitution. Natural disasters, environmental concerns, the basic depravity and selfishness of man--its reason enough. I was a volunteer during [Hurricane] Katrina. Not one person who had preps, was sorry. Many other equivalent societies in this century have fallen, why is America better ? It is inevitable, one disaster will prove the wisdom of preparing.

--
1. Life is worth living.
2. I want to be around if there is any defending of this nation to be done.
3. Who said one can’t prepare and merrymake? (I guess it depends on one’s interpretation of ‘merrymake’).

--
It's something that was raised in me. Whether it was the Boy Scout's motto of always being prepared, or just the human instinct of survival, if I see something on the horizon, I won't back down. Not to mention I get to justify spending a lot of money on camping gear and guns, my two favorite hobbies.

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We are trying to prepare because it is the right and responsible thing to do for our family, friends, neighbors, and country. If we all became part of the solution, then there would be no problem.

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Jim, I grew up in the bomb shelter/Cold War era. A neighbor two houses down actually dug out their front yard to install a bomb shelter. My folks had a rudimentary bug-out bag and we always kept a month's worth of food on hand. Hey, for the 1950s, that was progressive thinking so I guess I come by being into preparedness naturally.

I hold advanced degrees but my education does not get in the way of exercising common sense. It is obvious that our complex society is too interdependent to survive major interruptions and we have numerous examples to look at (the L.A. riots, Hurricane Katrina, and such). To believe that a major interruption of services could not occur is delusional. The empirical evidence is right in front of us. The family which is prepared has far fewer worries.

Do I believe we are headed for TEOTWAWKI? Not particularly. Do I believe that we will see significant disruptions that will affect us for 10 days or so? Yes, definitely. Disruptions lasting to 30 days or beyond? Less likely, but I maintain a "year's supply" nonetheless. Also, my Church has preached being prepared for years. Our leaders have constantly cajoled us to have a year's supply of food and other necessities and my guess is they know something we haven't heard yet.

--
Most pundits state that human beings are constantly evolving. The point they have ignored or can't see is that the evolvement of the human race in the last 50 years has been a deterioration, not an advancement. We survivalists are, quite frankly, throwbacks to the pure genotype that got us to this point in time.

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I prepare because the end is nigh (at least TEOTWAWKI), and there will be a lot of merry-makers who suddenly changed their minds, post-collapse. If you're prepared and you decide the going is too rough, you can always quit,but if you're not prepared, your options are zero. You're done. Besides, my family is Finnish, and we're stubborn SOBs. You can always tell a Finn, just not much...

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I prepare to survive because I see it as part of the natural cycle of human civilization. Something in us wants to forget the lessons of what makes us a great society and start living on borrowed riches and capabilities. Eventually, that living beyond our means catches up with us via a natural disaster, economic collapse or societal conflict.

If we were not to prepare to survive then we are doomed to fail and live miserably under the dictates of someone else. If we prepare we are not guaranteed to have prepared for the right situation, or enough, but at least we have a much better than average chance. In the end, I am an optimist. No matter how bad things get they will eventually get better. We can speed up our own recovery and that of our community’s by preparing now. If we do not, then we may end up wallowing in misery and struggling for the barest necessities. Is that the kind of life God wants for us? I think not. I believe God wants us to live wisely and prepare to prosper under all conditions. That takes discipline and short-term sacrifice.

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Jim, your blog rocks. I only hope that I can learn and earn fast enough to take advantage of the incredible information that your forum provides before TEOTWAWKI.

I have a beautiful 6 month old son who is totally innocent to the ways in which TPTB (the powers that be) are systematically destroying nature, American Democratic principles and threatening the survival of humanity. He deserves a chance in this life, regardless of whether or not he'll ever get to visit Sam's Club, get a college scholarship, drive a V-8 or own an iPod.

When things start to get dicey, and as the world as we know it begins to fall apart - most likely permanently- he will be just coming up in age and entering what should be the most wondrous years of a child's life.

For him, and for my future children, I will fill their youthful imaginations with nature, tools, projects, outdoor adventure and practical knowledge. Before I let the idiot-box and America's media-driven junk-culture destroy their understanding of their place in God's kingdom (and the animal kingdom), they will know what to eat and how to hunt it, how to garden, how to fix stuff and how to avoid trouble in a society that in the future will eventually fail entirely by trying to eliminate all risk of failure here in the present.

They will be encouraged to learn practical trades: veterinary sciences, engineering, construction, medicine and alternative medicine, martial arts, food production and off-the-grid technology solutions.

No bankers, real-estate agents, financial analysts, politicians or computer graphic designers in this family, Jim. No sireeee bubba.

I have always believed that those people who want to throw God's gift of life away through risk, recklessness, attempted suicide or plain old bad lifestyle habits are doomed to live longer.

I have also questioned since1987 when the U.S.S. Stark got hit by our"allies" escorting black gold in the Persian Gulf how long our cheeseburger-driven, cheap-oil, fiat-money, fake-friends and fear of loss-driven society can keep going.

Therefore I will survive this impending paradigm-shift in human existence in order to see my children prevail into adulthood, and for my morbid curiosity to see how all this B.S. I have put up with my entire life winds-up in the end of my days.

It won't be easy however. Here in Texas, not 1 in 1000 people has a clue what might be coming in the next few years. Even after [Hurricane] Katrina pushed a not-so-golden horde of 150,000 low income welfare dependents onto the greater Houston area. I guess that bad stuff only happens to others, right?

I'll be heading for the hills soon enough I hope, and taking my brood to a more austere, self-sufficient and remote lifestyle before Sugar Land Texas becomes a looter's paradise.

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At first I prepared because it was an American act of self-reliance. Now, after all the weird looks and puzzled expressions, I get to have the biggest 'I told you so' in my lifetime.

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Great question. Do I have an answer? Yeah a couple. Peace of mind in these troubled times is the main one. We buy insurance for everything except peace of mind. Our power goes off we start our transition to alternatives without a worry. Lights, power,shelter, water, communication ability goes on. Food is here to be eaten fuel to use without need to purchase, cash on hand no worries. Another reason we do what we do is because "I" feel it's my responsibility to my family. Part of my responsibility as a husband and a father is prepare to take care of them no matter what happens next I can't sleep knowing I could have, but I didn't. It's a philosophy of maintaining the status quo to then have the time and resources to help others. It's about being "ahead of the game." It's about life and meeting it's changes head on, never stopping head down and moving constantly on forward to whatever it is that is next in life.

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My reason is: why give up? I have fought to hard in this life to just roll over and die.

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Tuesday March 27 2007

SHTF Shopping, by SF in Hawaii

There are two types of survivalist ["Schumer Hits the Fan"] (SHTF) shopping. Pre-SHTF, and Imminent-SHTF. Let's look at both of them .

Pre-SHTF
These are things you buy now while there is no immediate threat and no mobs of desperate people trying to get the same thing. People who know you think you are eccentric but mostly harmless. The readers of this site already know what kinds of items to store in advance (food, guns, ammunition, etc.) and so it will not be repeated here. Conceptually, these items should have long term storability, and in terms of food be used in a rotating manner so that they are used before they reach the end of their shelf lives. IMHO, a good way to get a resistant female significant other to get on board is to tell her to pick out a case of her favorite chocolate bars and tampons/pads for your pre-SHTF stash.

Imminent SHTF
If you haven't done your Pre-SHTF shopping, shame on you. The best you can hope for is to get there first. Put on a rucksack and while everyone else is in shock, you call your group/wife/friends and get to the COSTCO or wherever. You will be competing with others for items.
If you have already done your Pre-SHTF shopping, then items that you by during an imminent SHTF could include:

1- More of what you already have
2- Items that you don't store in large amounts because they have shorter expiration dates such as fats, oils, meats, batteries and fuel. [JWR Adds: Don't forget chemical light sticks.]
3- Items that you haven't already bought because they are expensive and need the money more than the item during normal times (i.e. more/better guns)
4- Items that you haven't bought already because in addition to their price and expiration dates, you cannot use them under normal circumstances, such as antibiotics.
5- Items that require maintenance that you don't want to deal with pre-SHTF (i.e. guard dog, male and female rabbits and chicks (for raising meat) and the food and housing that they will require.

Here is where your preparation pays off. You zig while everyone else zags. You don't want to be in a throng of hungry and frightened people scrabbling for what's left on the [supermarket] shelves. Since you already have done your Pre-SHTF shopping, you are in no immediate need of anything. Instead, think of what else you might want to get and buy it while others are ransacking the shelves of the local grocery store for canned tuna, rice, bottled water and D-cell batteries. You've got your shopping list and you call your team and assign items to purchase.

Consider the nature of the SHTF. Stay away from the crowds. If a violent riot is a mile away, don't go to the gun store to get another shotgun. Everyone else is going there. You already have your guns and ammo right? Go to the hardware store and get razor wire (or barbed wire), 2x4's, nails, fire extinguishers and smoke inhalation masks/hoods. If the banks are shutting down, don't go and wait on line there. Instead, go to the ATMs and local check cashing place. Think out of the box or get buried in one.

You want to be ahead of the learning curve of the masses. You can be by virtue of three things.

1 - You've already taken care of the necessities so you can avoid the crowds.
2 - You aren't going into shock since you already saw this coming.
3 - You don't have to think about what you're going to need. You've already thought about it, made your list, and know exactly where to get it.

Special note: Depending on the nature of the SHTF, you may need to pay with cash. If the grid is going to go down, don't expect stores to take your word for it that your checks and credit cards are good, and it's too early to pay with gold or silver unless the shop owner is present and it's a mom and pop store. As such, if you don't have a chunk of cash buried in the yard, the very first thing you (or a member of your team/family) may need to do is to go to the bank and ATMs and get some cash out while you can.

FWIW, here's my current personal Imminent SHTF Shopping List.
Rent a 20' moving truck
I want more than I can carry in my car.
Financial
Withdraw cash at banks and ATMs and empty the safe deposit box of any valuables before the banks close down.
Transport
Gas cans
Gasoline
Mountain bikes
Dirt bike/Motorcycle

Food and Water
Fats and Oils
Meats and proteins

Medicine
Antibiotics -prescription*
Painkillers -prescription*

*You should carry prescriptions for any drugs you may want to get in your wallet at all times. Do you want to have to go home and look through your files when the balloon goes up and time is of the essence?
Defense
More ammunition - can you ever have enough?
Rifles and shotguns - see above.
Camping gear
Extra shoes
Water filters
Batteries

Livestock-Pet store
Baby chicks and baby rabbits, both sexes.
Their food, water and housing needs

Conclusion:
Have this thought out ahead of time. Have copies or your list, delegate tasks to those in your circle and move fast while everyone else is glued to the television set waiting for the government to tell them what to do. - SF in Hawaii

JWR Adds: Deciding whether or not to venture away from your home or retreat when disruption looks imminent should not be a taken lightly. Risks will likely outweigh the benefits if it means "fighting the crowds" at the stores. (Literally.) Nor do you want riffraff seeing your vehicle heaped with new purchases and then following you home. Ditto for nosey neighbors.

In my writings, I have always stressed that we should "Be part of the solution, and not part of the problem." I consider that the litmus test for determining the right course of action in any disaster. By logical extension, that mindset pushes us in the direction of dispensing charity and assisting civil authorities in restoring law and order. By stocking up well in advance you will be one less person that rushes to the supermarket just after the SHTF.

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Tuesday February 13 2007

Kanban: America's Ubiquitous "Just in Time" Inventory System--A Fragile House of Cards

When I give lectures or do radio interviews, I'm often asked for proof when I mention that we live in a "fragile society." Here is one prime example: kanban. The kanban or "just in time" inventory system was developed in Japan, and became popular in America starting in the 1970s. It is now ubiquitous in nearly every industry. The concept is simple: Through close coordination with subcontractors and piece part suppliers, a manufacturer can keep its parts inventory small. (Kanban is a key element of "lean manufacturing.") They only order batches of parts as needed ("just in time"), sometimes ordering as frequently as twice a week. Companies now hire Six Sigma consultants and Kaizen gurus, they buy sophisticated data processing systems, and they hire extra purchasing administrators. But these expenses actually save them money at the bottom line. I have a close friend, "B.A.", that has worked as a lean process consultant, and he chimed in on a draft of this article that I sent him last weekend. (See his interspersed notes.) "Just in time" inventory systems have several advantages: Less warehouse space, less capital tied up in parts inventory, and less risk of parts obsolescence.

B.A. Adds: Actually, in many cases, if the simplest [lean process] methods are revealed through asking the "5 Whys" and understanding optimum flow, the sophistication (including data processing systems) can often be greatly reduced or eliminated; I think the perception is that complexity is better is often a sales job from folks selling the hardware and software!

The downside is that lean inventories leave companies vulnerable to any disruption of supply. If transportation gets snarled, or if communications get disrupted, or a parts vendor has a strike or a production problem, then assembly lines grind to halt. Just one missing part means that no finished products go out the door. In some industries, the complexity and length of the supply chain can be staggering. Some manufacturers of complex products-such as automobiles--now rely on many dozens of parts vendors on several continents. American businessmen have built very big, very complex, very vulnerable supply chains.

The kanban concept has also been taken up by America's retailers, most notably its grocery sellers. In the "old days"--say 20 years ago--grocery stores had well-stocked "back rooms", with many extra cases of dry goods. But now in most stores the "back room" has been replaced with just a pallet break-down area. Merchandise comes in from distribution centers, and it all goes immediately to the consumer shelves out front. Thus, what you see on the grocery store shelf is all that the store has on hand. What you see is what you get. The bar code scanners at the checkout counters feed a complex re-ordering system. If Mrs. Jones buys three bottles of pasta sauce, that could trigger a re-order. (Even the U.S. Military has embraced some "lean" techniques in their maintenance and logistics infrastructures, and saved taxpayers millions of dollars.) As long as communications and transportation work smoothly, then the entire system hums along like a Swiss watch.But what happens when the transportation infrastructure gets disrupted?

B.A. Adds: One of the 9 Wastes (I added one of my own :-) is excess Transport. Ideally, a systemic approach to manufacturing will co-locate (in theory) to the point where no transportation, or even movement is required, so transportation is one of the "nasties" that effective lean thinking tends to eliminate; here are the 8 Wastes (to which I would add "E" for Energy to the TIM WOODS acronym, which now becomes TIMEWOODS :-)
Transport (excess)
Inventory (excess)
Motion
Energy
Waiting
Overproduction
Overprocessing
Defects
Skills, Savvy, Smarts (squandering the inherent genius in all people involved)

One of the factors that has strongly encouraged lean inventories is that many states levy an annual tax on business inventories of finished good or sometimes even semi-finished subassemblies. Also, under the Federal tax law, businesses must "keep an inventory and use the accrual method for purchases and sales of merchandise." As is the case with most other government intervention in the free market, this is another "unintended consequence." Businessmen hate paying a nickel more in tax than they absolutely have to, so by keeping their inventory small, they avoid the taxes. In some states like California, it is not unusual to see annual "inventory reduction" sales, timed for the month before before the annual inventory tax is levied.

The big "lean machine" works great in normal times. But in times of economic instability, or following a natural disaster, the machine can't cope. Panic buying can clean out supermarket shelves in a matter of hours. And again, in most cases there is no longer a "back room" with extra inventory. The important lesson in all this is to be prepared. DO NOT count on being able to buy anything to provide for your family on TEOTWAWKI Day +1. Stock up.

B.A. Adds: "Good points, although I'd emphasize the caveat of stocking up (where it makes sense) on the items that you know you will personally use, and you have the space to store, and that won't suffer any significant shelf-life deterioration, spoilage or nutritional loss (whole grain, water, honey, et cetera.) Also, have some silver for barter currency, [to trade for the items that you overlooked or that you didn't stock in sufficient depth.]"

Also, while the sensitivity and stability of authentic lean manufacturing and production (as is practiced ... or not in many cases) is of some concern, one emphasis that lean senseis make is flexibility and responsiveness, so that, for example, mixed inventory models can respond almost instantaneously to changes in demand (and the intent is to hone the bidirectional speed of communication so that the entire supply web is informed at a much quicker rate to adjust).
The concerns you raise are valid. However, as in so many areas of life, the optimum solutions are not either/or, but both/and. In the case of dependence on technologies such as computer and telecommunication networks, the initial concentration of processing power (mainframes) has given way to vastly distributed, parallel and redundant systems that are far more tolerant of disruptions than ever before.

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Tuesday February 6 2007

Letter Re: The CDC's New "Five Categories" for Pandemic Severity

Mr. Rawles,
Given the unique nature of a flu pandemic, (or a "biological" attack), how would one assemble their retreat group after possible outbreak in one's immediate area, (within 50 miles) with confidence? The vehicle alone that they travel in could be laden with contamination and the door handles become a scary transmission device. Seeing is believing, invisible is invisible.
"To Group or not to Group?", that is the question. - The Wanderer

JWR Replies: There is no way to be certain to avoid exposure if an influenza outbreak is in close proximity. But odds are that the first outbreaks will be in distant regions. That will be the time to act. I've done consulting work for members of three different retreat groups in recent months, and all three had essentially the same concept of operation: If there is news of an outbreak of a rapidly spreading human-to-human ("H2H") flu strain anywhere on the planet, they plan to send out an alert (via e-mail/phone tree), meet up, lock their gates, and hunker down. One group mentioned a 24 hour deadline. The other two groups quoted 36 hours. Nobody will be allowed in after those deadlines. One of these retreat groups plans a novel procedure for any group members that who get delayed and arrive after their deadline: They will be forced to "quarantine camp" on adjoining National Forest land for two weeks, to establish whether or not were infected. With all seriousness, one of the group members that I interviewed said, "If they start getting sick, we'll say say prayers for them--from quite a distance--and then we'll toss them some Sambucol and a shovel."

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Monday February 5 2007

Letter Re: Veterinary Antibiotics

Jim,
Thank you for responding to my e-mail. As a healthcare professional, many of us are going to have to make some really hard decisions in more difficult times when drugs will no longer be available. If it came down to having someone die or administering an out of date tetracycline, I would be happy to try the tetracycline out of date or not. Tough choices either way.

The reason I continue this discussion is due partly to an article I read in The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, March 28, 2000, page A-16. 'Many Drugs Prove Potent Long Past Expiration Dates." {see: http://www.timestriponline.com/shelflife/drugexpiraton.htm] This article sites the findings of the Food and Drug Administration when they tested out of date (up to 15 years) military drug stockpile. The purpose was to see if the military could extend the life of its inventory. The testing included tetracycline and aspirin "and typically found batches effective for more than two years." The results on over 100 drugs "showed that about 90% of them were safe and effective far past their original expiration date." I am not in a position to obtain the full report but it must have been great [to read]. - Russ

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Sunday February 4 2007

The CDC's New "Five Categories" for Pandemic Severity

Several SurvivalBlog readers mentioned an article that ran recently in the New York Times: U.S. Issues Guidelines in Case of Flu Pandemic. The article begins: "Cities should close schools for up to three months in the event of a severe flu outbreak, ball games and movies should be canceled and working hours staggered so subways and buses are less crowded, the federal government advised today in issuing new pandemic flu guidelines to states and cities.
Health officials acknowledged that such measures would hugely disrupt public life, but they argued that these measure would buy the time needed to produce vaccines and would save lives because flu viruses attack in waves lasting about two months.
“We have to be prepared for a Category 5 pandemic,” said Dr. Martin Cetron, director of global migration and quarantine for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], in releasing the guidelines. “It’s not easy. The only thing that’s harder is facing the consequences. That will be intolerable.”
In an innovation, the new guidelines are modeled on the five levels of hurricanes, but ranked by lethality instead of wind speed. Category 1, which assumes 90,000 Americans would die, is equivalent to a bad year for seasonal flu, Glen Nowak, a CDC spokesman, said. (About 36,000 Americans die of flu in an average year.) Category 5, which assumes 1.8 million dead, is the equivalent of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. (That flu killed about 2 percent of those infected; the H5N1 flu now circulating in Asia has killed more than 50 percent but is not easily transmitted.)" [End quote.]

Given the lethality rate of H5N1, I think that the CDC officials are overly optimistic, almost to the point of being Pollyannas. They have understated the pandemic threat considerably. As I mentioned in my article Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic, the current strain of the H5N1 virus has a 58% lethality rate for humans. If a new easily transmissible strain emerges, and that strain has the same lethality, imagine this: It could infect 20% of the population, and then kill 58% of those that are infected. In a nation of 300 million that equates to 34.8 million deaths. In fact, the death rate could be even higher. Why? In the recent Asian outbreaks, we have witnessed aggressive hospitalized treatment for all of those that were infected--complete with 24-hour nursing, artificial ventilation, broad spectrum antibiotics (for bacterial co-infections), oxygen therapy, I.V. fluids, experimental anti-virals, the whole works. But in a major pandemic there would not be enough hospital beds for even small percentage of the flu patients. There are roughly 947,000 staffed hospital beds in the U.S. (including prison hospitals) and about 65% of standard beds and 85% in critical care unit beds are filled on any given day. (Some suggest that there is a bed shortage, even in the present day.) And what about hospital ventilators? Forget it! In the U.S. there are "about 105,000 ventilators, and even during a regular flu season, about 100,000 [of them] are in use."

So what is the bottom line? To be more realistic in assessing worst case situations, the CDC needs to add at least a couple more category numbers (i.e. Category 6 and Category 7.) In my estimation the CDC has publicly underestimated the pandemic threat, to avoid widespread panic.

The latest news is that H5N1 has been found in farm poultry in England. It is just a matter of time before it makes its way into U.S. poultry flocks. But H5N1 is not in itself a big public health threat. It is the potential mutated variety "HX" that is the real threat. But for now, H5N1 has circled the globe and may become endemic. Everywhere that it exists, there is the chance that a viable "H2H" strain could emerge. When that happens, watch out!

Are you ready to self-quarantine your entire family to avoid exposure? If not, then you'd better get on the phone to a food storage vendor (there are several very reputable ones that are SurvivalBlog advertisers) and order an honest six month supply of food for your family. Do it NOW, because if you wait until after a flu outbreak, then it will be too late. The supermarket shelves will swept bare in less than 24 hours, nationwide. Human nature dictates that this will happen. That is what people always do in emergencies. We just haven't yet seen it happen from coast to coast.

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Friday January 19 2007

The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world's population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply chains. In the First World, less than 2% of the population is engaged in agriculture or fishing. Ponder that for a moment: Just 2% are feeding the other 98%. The food on our tables often comes from hundreds if not thousands of miles away. Our heating and lighting is provided by power sources typically hundreds of miles away. For many people even their tap water travels hundreds of miles. Our factories produce sophisticated cars and electronics that have subcomponents that are sourced on three continents. It is as if we are all cogs in an enormous invisible machine, each playing our part to make sure that the average Americans comes home from work each day to find: his refrigerator well-stocked with food, his lights reliably come on, his telephone works, his tap gushes pure water, his toilet flushes, his paycheck is automatically deposited to his bank, his garbage is collected, his house is a comfortable 70 degrees, his TV entertainment up and running 24/7, and his DSL connection. We've built our fellow Americans a very big machine that up until now has worked remarkably well, with just a few glitches. But that may not always be the case. As Napoleon found the hard way, long chains of supply and communication are fragile and vulnerable. Someday the big machine may grind to a halt. Let me describe one set of circumstances that could cause that to happen:

Imagine an influenza pandemic, spread by causal contact, that is so virulent that it kills more than half of the people that are infected. And imagine the advance of the disease so rapid that it makes its way around the globe in less than a week. (Isn't modern jet air travel grand?) Consider that we have global news media that is so rabid for "hot" news that they can't resist showing pictures of men in respirators, rubber gloves, and Tyvek coveralls wheeling gurneys out of houses, laden with body bags. They report countless stories like: "Suzie Smith brought the flu bug home from school. Everyone in her family died." and, "Mr. Jones brought the flu home from work. Everyone in his family died." Over and over. Repeated so many times that the majority of citizens decides "I'm not going to go to work tomorrow, or the day after, or in fact until after 'things get better.'" But by not going to work, some important cogs will be missing from the Big Machine. Orders won't get processed at the Wal-Mart distribution center. The 18 Wheel trucks won't make deliveries to groceries stores. Gas stations will run out of fuel. Policemen and firemen won't show up at work. Telephone technicians will call in sick. Power lines will get knocked down in wind storms, and there will be nobody to repair them. Crops will rot in the fields because there will be nobody to pick them, or transport them, or magically bake them into Pop-Tarts, or stock them on your supermarket shelf. The Big Machine will be broken.

Does this sound scary? Sure it does, and it should. The implications are huge. But it gets worse: The average suburbanite only has about a week's worth of food in their pantry. What will they do when it is gone, and there is no reasonably immediate prospect of re-supply? Supermarket shelves will be stripped bare. Faced with the alternative of staying home and starving or going out to meet Mr. Influenza, millions of growling stomachs will force Joe American to go and "forage." The first likely targets will be restaurants, stores, and food distribution warehouses. Not a few "foragers" will soon transition to full scale looting, taking the little that their neighbors have left. Next, they'll move on to farms that are in close proximity to cities. A few looters will form gangs that will be highly mobile and well-armed, ranging deeper and deeper into farmlands, running their vehicles on siphoned or stolen-at-gunpoint gasoline. Eventually their luck will run out and they will all die of the flu, or of instantaneous lead poisoning. But before the looters are all dead they will do a tremendous amount of damage. Be ready to confront them. Your life, and the lives of your loved ones will count on it. You'll need to be able to put a lot of lead down range--at least enough to convince Mr. Looter that he needs to go find some other farm or ranch to loot.

In recent months, the press has shifted its attention, ignoring the continuing threat of Asian Avian Flu mutating into a strain that can be easily transmitted between humans. If and when that mutation occurs--and the epidemiologists tell us that it is more a question of "when" rather than "if"--then things could turn very, very ugly all over the globe. Be prepared. To start getting ready, you should first read the background article on pandemic preparation that I wrote last year, titled "Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic." Next, think through all of the implications of disruption of key portions of our modern technological infrastructure. Plan accordingly. You need to be able to provide water, food, heating, and lighting for your family. Ditto for law enforcement, since odds are that a pandemic will be YOYO ("You're on your own!") time. Get your beans, bullets, and band-aids squared away, pronto. Most importantly, be prepared to hunker down in "self quarantine" for three or four months, with no outside contact. That will take a lot of logistics, as well as plenty of cash on hand to pay your bills in the absence of a continuing income stream.

One closing thought: There are only about 15 large food storage dealers in the country, and even fewer firms that sell non-hybrid ("heirloom") gardening seed. How long do you think that their inventories will last, once there is news that there is an easily transmissible human-to-human flu strain of flu, anywhere on the planet? Prices are currently low and inventories are plentiful. It is better to be a year too early than a day too late. Please consider patronizing one of more of our advertisers. We have half a dozen of them that sell long term storage food and heirloom garden seed. They deserve your business.

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Sunday January 14 2007

Letter Re: An Interesting Television Show on the Pandemic Threat

Most everyone loves a good medical mystery. You know, we watch these shows like "House" and "ER" to see what the medical emergency is and to watch the drama unfold as they solve the crisis of the moment. Shows like "CSI" teach us a lot about the medical community and police work together to solve crimes. You're going to probably see in the television season to come that the subject in this link is going to be played out in various popular drama shows. Understanding the reality behind it to me is as interesting as the drama plays and I think you'll enjoy getting the behind the scenes scoop on it.

I've been following this avian influenza virus for a while. Here is a link to a television show that was done by medical scientists (Director of the CDC, US Secretary of Health, leading medical scientists, etc.) to help explain what this is and why it's being labeled as "the single most lethal thing our society could face in the year 2007." Politicians and governments around the globe are quietly infusing millions of dollars into preparations and training in pandemic preparedness measures.

If you have the time, please watch it. It's really interesting, on multiple levels, not as a hype that "the world is coming to an end" but rather to be involved in medical matters to educate yourself and be self aware of the situation that is going on with this particular issue. It's aim is to educate them on the issue so that folks will understand what this situation is, exactly. I hope you enjoy learning about it. - April

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Thursday September 7 2006

Personal Hygiene in a Biowarfare World, by TruthFirst

It’s a new world: West Nile virus, Cryptosporidium, Anthrax, Norwalk virus, Cholera (in the Gulf States, from shellfish!), Avian Flu, Ebola, Malaria (yes, in the US!), Hepatitis C, HIV / AIDS, genetically-engineered bacteria, and the ominous and very real threat of biological warfare. Thanks to the speed of international travel, persons who would have never made it very far from the point they were infected can now circle the globe in the time it takes to develop symptoms.
Someone you bump into at the mall could have contracted an exotic disease in Africa last week. The person who used the restroom before you could have just come from South America and is only now coming down with cholera. The person you shake hands with could have just shook hands with someone carrying Hepatitis A.
The odds of your becoming infected with a truly dangerous disease are small, but real. (No one even wants to catch a Type A flu!) You could go around in a biohazard suit all day, but of course you’d be treated like some kind of freak. There is good news, though: effective personal hygiene practices don’t have to be "weird" or attention-getting!
There are simple steps that with practice can become second-nature habits, and simple things you can buy, which will significantly reduce your potential for catching any contagious disease. These steps will help with everything from colds and flu to bio-weapon attacks or genetic-engineering accidents.

Do the basics:
Eat right, exercise, get a good night’s sleep. A healthy body is far more resistant to bacteria and viruses.
If there’s an outbreak of the flu, cold, or worse going on in your community, minimize going out in public as much as possible until things get better. If it’s something truly nasty, stay home and eat from your pantry a week until things improve. (Stored food and water are recommended by the Red Cross and Department of Homeland Security.)
Keep in mind that staying well isn’t so much a matter of avoiding germs entirely, as it is minimizing your exposure. It generally takes a certain number of bacteria or viruses to overcome your body’s natural defenses and make you ill. So you get exposed to some germs – it’s not a big deal as long as the number is relatively small because your body will be able to protect you.

Buy the basics:
1. Waterless hand sanitizer lotions are available in the grocery store (Purell is probably best). Buy a little bottle for your pocket or purse. You an refill it from a larger size bottle. Lotions can get into the tiny cracks and crevices in your hand better than towelettes. (Use a generous amount and wash your hands with hot water and antimicrobial soap at your first opportunity.)
2. Buy a couple boxes of pop-up antiseptic / antimicrobial towelettes that contain bleach to keep at home and at work. They make cleanup quicker and less smelly than sprays (and you won’t accidentally get the chemicals on things you don’t want sprayed, like your clothes).
3. Get a box of nonsterile vinyl gloves from your pharmacy or store. They’re inexpensive and also good for painting, cleaning up dog or cat accidents, scrubbing the kitchen or bathroom with harsh chemicals, etc. For your purposes they don’t have to fit snugly like surgical gloves, and vinyl doesn’t have the allergen complications of latex (rubber) gloves. Nitrile gloves are more expensive, but are harder to puncture. Carry a pair of gloves with you, if possible, for those times when you’re giving first aid or you have to handle something that may have been contaminated with germs, chemicals, or even just dirt and grease. They do get old and crack eventually, so you might want to change them every 6 months or so.
4. Buy a box of folding protective masks, 3M model #9211 (about $10). They’re not as efficient as “N100” dust/filter masks, but because they’re foldable you can keep one with you most times. Keep one for each member of your family in your purse, glove box, or briefcase. (NOTE: If you’re wondering, dry masks filter particles better than wet masks.) Your mask should be rated "N95" or better - most “surgical masks” are actually very poor filters and don’t form a good seal to your face. Know how and when to use your mask.
5. A little bottle of nasal saline spray, or Xlear spray (even better), can be used any time you’ve been in close quarters with someone who’s sick. The xylitol in Xlear greatly reduces the number of bacteria or viruses that attach to the inside of your nose and sinus cavities.
6. Get facial tissue pocket-packs to carry in your pocket, purse, or briefcase. They’re better than handkerchiefs, which can continue to re-expose you to the very same bacteria or viruses you just got rid of.

Hand hygiene:
1. Keep your hands away from your eyes, nose, and mouth unless (1) you’ve just washed or sanitized them, or (2) you’re using a facial tissue. Since people often rub their eyes or touch their face unconsciously. Not doing so is probably the hardest new habit to learn. Fewer organisms are floating in the air than have settled out on surfaces (or other person’s hands) that you’ve touched. Not touching your face is the #1 best way of reducing the number of bacteria and viruses that get access to your body. Work on it!
2. Make a habit of washing your hands frequently (for those times when you do accidentally touch your face). Wash every time you use the restroom, before every time you snack, before every meal, and at bedtime.
3. When you wash your hands, remember this: it’s at least as important to dry your hands thoroughly as to wash them thoroughly. Washing rarely kills every germ on your hands, but if your hands are damp, it’s far easier for the few germs on your hands to be transferred to another surface or person than if your hands were completely dry.
4. Glove up any time you’re around bodily fluids, such as at an accident scene, or helping someone who’s become sick. If there’s not time, wash up and sanitize your hands immediately afterwards. The likelihood of infection in this manner is small, but it has happened. Any object or clothing that comes into contact with bodily fluids is contaminated too and needs to be disposed of or disinfected (clothing or bedding can be washed - use a little bleach).
5. On a somewhat related note, encourage children to blow their noses, rather than sniffing when they have a runny nose. Better to expel the stuff rather than inhaling bacteria and viruses still deeper into the nasal passages.
At school, work, or shopping:
1. It may not be practical at work, but try to wash your face at least a couple of times during the day. A washcloth makes this much easier to do – you can wash, and rinse with the same cloth. Put it in a Ziploc for the trip home each day.
2. Don’t hold pencils, pens, or tools in your mouth. Buy a belt holder / holster for frequently-used items if your shirt or uniform doesn’t have a pocket.
3. If you share a keyboard or area at work with someone who’s been sick, wipe your computer keyboard, phone, and entire area down with an antiseptic towelette each day.
4. If a house- or office-guest or customer was coughing or sick, after they leave, wipe down all of the hard surfaces they may have come in contact with: doorknobs (inside & outside), tables & counters, etc. Using one of the commercially available pop-up towelettes that contain bleach will make this more convenient!
5. Spray your nose a couple of times during the day during cold and flu season to wash away germs that may have floated in.

Restrooms:
We don’t like to talk about them, but potty functions are one of the greatest opportunities to accidentally transfer germs to surfaces and from there to your eyes, nose, and mouth. Ignorance is not bliss! These steps below will take you only another 30 seconds. A little attention and some simple new habits will go a long way toward protecting you from getting sick:
1. Before doing anything in a public restroom examine the toilet seat that you are contemplating having intimate contact with. If its wet or flecked with stuff, switch stalls.
2. Then, look at the floor around the toilet and run your foot over the tiling. Also look at the back of the toilet seat where it attaches to the wall or tank. If the floor or toilet seat are wet they may have just been cleaned, or the toilet’s recently overflowed, or someone’s got bad aim. In any case, you don’t want cleaning chemicals or toilet overflow on your clothes (and from there to your body and eventually your hands!) – just switch stalls!
3. Flush once before sitting down (if you flush after sitting down you just misted your south end with microscopic bits of stuff left in the water). If there are skid marks or other remnants from previous users, flush and keep flushing until the bowl appears clean, or switch stalls. Even if there is any invisible residue from the previous user still in the water, “pre-flushing” will help remove or dilute it further. (This will also show you if the toilet has been plugged up by the last user and is going to overflow after you use it, in which case, switch stalls!)
4. Take a wad of toilet paper off the roll (check to be sure its not wet – some places leave spare toilet paper (TP) rolls on the floor…), and wipe the toilet seat off. This is also a good check that there is TP in the stall and that you won’t end up being stranded. Buttock skin in its intact state is generally impervious to germs (but not cleaning chemicals). But even if your skin is pristine, the previous user’s may not have been, hence the need for cleaning and a barrier (below).
5. Then put the TP wipe into the water and even add a little more so that you create a “splash-down damper” to minimize splash-back during your use, which at least in theory could infect you through your rectal mucosa. Just think about it for a moment.
6. Toilet seat covers are your extra bit of insurance from coming into contact with something unpleasant on the seat. You can buy seat covers at the grocery store in little plastic carriers for your purse or briefcase (“Charmin To Go” is one example), or take one or two the next time you’re in a public restroom, fold them up, and put them in a little Ziploc Snack-size bag. If the stall doesn’t have seat covers, you can drape TP around on the seat (seat covers are probably faster, but TP is softer…) Some people even carry their own toilet paper (again, you can buy it in little plastic carriers) in case every stall in the restroom they pick is out. (And in case you didn’t know, the toilet seat cover should be flushed.)
7. You’ve checked the seat and floor, wiped the seat, improvised your splash-down damper, and deployed your seat cover in 30 seconds or less. Now, as you sit down, keep one final thing in mind: do not allow any portion of your tender regions to touch the toilet seat, or toilet rim, or its all for naught. This can be an extra challenge for men for reasons that should be apparent. Neither the seat nor rim is sterile, and it may be very unpleasant or impossible to adequately clean yourself once you make accidental contact. ‘Nuff said…
8. Step away from the toilet and dress yourself again when you’re through, check to make sure none of your pocket stuff – guys in particular – has fallen into the toilet (I say this from experience…), and only then flush the toilet. The splashing action and force of many modern toilets creates a fine mist that can contain bits of toilet content and drift around in the air. Exit the stall as the toilet is flushing. No loitering…
9. After you’ve washed your hands with hot water and soap, you should also try to turn the faucet off without touching it with your hands, since the knob(s) could be contaminated. Some faucet designs make this easy with paddle-shaped handles. Newer public faucets are electronic and have no knobs at all. (Imagine your hands with paint on them. If you touched the faucet handles to wash the paint off, how will you turn the faucet off without getting the “paint” back on you again?)
10. After using a public restroom be aware that others have probably left the room without washing their hands, and the doorknob to exit is probably contaminated with their germs. After you’ve washed your hands and thoroughly dried them, keep the paper towels you used and use them to open the door (if it pulls toward you). If there are no towels use a facial tissue, piece of toilet paper, or the sleeve of your coat to grasp the handle, or use the knob but give yourself a generous dab of hand sanitizer (Purell is great) after you exit to sanitize your hands. Throw the paper towel away after you exit the restroom.
11. And while we’re on the subject: clean your home bathroom before guests arrive (so it looks nice!), but also remember to clean your bathroom after they leave (so your guests haven’t inadvertently left you a bio-present).

Eating:
Minimize eating out. Teenagers and convicts are frequently the food preparers, and neither have very much concern for the basics of food safety. We have often been shocked to see just who was cooking our meals. Not to mention your food and its packaging goes through many more hands than meals prepared at home. Sit-down restaurants are probably better than fast food places, and they may actually serve food fit to eat (less fat, in particular). Observe the employees in restaurants you routinely visit. If they appear unhealthy, find a different place to eat.
Public salad bars, cold food counters, buffets, cold salads, peeled fruit and cream dishes are easily contaminated (by accident or on purpose). Try to avoid these wherever possible. Your food should be steaming hot when it is served to you, to guarantee its at least been heated recently. Undercooked seafood in particular can harbor an amazing variety of diseases (ironically, frying adequately sterilizes most everything). Avoid condiments that are served from dishes that could be coughed on or otherwise contaminated. Avoid dishes which are dipped into with crackers or chips or bread by several different people.
Drink pure water. If possible, don’t drink water from the city water supply (chlorinated water still has dead bacteria in it, may still have active viruses and parasites, and the chlorine really isn’t good for you). If you’re not on your own well, use distilled or reverse osmosis water to drink and cook with. Home water purifiers vary greatly in cost and effectiveness - get the best filter or system you can afford. City water supplies are vulnerable to terrorist attack as well as accidental contamination. Try to avoid drinking out of drinking fountains, if possible (my own son caught Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in this way, so I know it can happen). Keeping yourself hydrated helps your body be healthy and fight infections.
Flying (also applies to riding the bus or riding the train or subway):
NOTE: People who have flown within the past week get colds at four times the average rate, so a little extra attention to hygiene is worth avoiding a week or more of misery!
1. Leave rested and well fed.
2. Bring your own (little) pillow if it’s going to be a long flight or trip.
3. Spray your nose frequently during and after your trip.
4. Keep your hands away from your face.
5. Keep your hands washed or sanitized.
6. Drink plenty of (bottled) water.
7. Avoid alcohol on your trip - it dries out your body quicker.
8. If you’re seated near someone who’s obviously ill, ask a flight attendant for a different seat if possible. If you’re on a bus or train, move somewhere else. If you can’t move, and the person sounds sick enough, break out your folding dust mask.

Using a Dust Mask:
You usually only want to wear a mask under three conditions. One, if there is a particularly bad flu or cold going around, and your immune system is already run down from another illness, medication, or surgery. Or if you’re “trapped” sitting near someone who’s obviously very sick, but you can’t get away because you’re in an airplane, bus, train, or subway. Or finally, if you suspect there has been some kind of biowarfare release in your area, or refugees are arriving in town from a city that’s been attacked.
Things to remember when using a protective mask:
1. Getting a good seal around the mask against your face is critical. If air is able to leak around the mask and into your mouth and nose it is not being filtered. Follow the directions that come with the mask closely.
2. Once you arrive at a safe destination – an evacuation point or your own home – keep your mask on while you change clothes outside. Bag up your contaminated clothes until you can find out if it was a real biological or chemical attack. If no one else is at home to help, just do your best to contaminate as few areas as possible while doing this.
3. Treat the outside of your mask as contaminated. If there really were harmful biological organisms in the air that it filtered out, they’re now stuck to the outside of the mask. Take it off carefully, outdoors, so as not to disturb the germs on its surface, then dispose of it in a sealed bag.
4. Then thoroughly wash and disinfect your hands and face (use Purell, but don’t get it in your eyes; even just soap and water is good), then take a shower. If you have some zinc-base eye drops use them to try to flush and disinfect your eyes (bacteria and viruses getting into your lungs are a much greater threat than eyes).

Miscellaneous
When using a locker room, pool, or public shower try to keep your wet feet from touching clothing that will eventually touch your body. This can be pretty tricky (bathing suits, underwear, pants, etc.), but you really don’t want to apply what’s on the floor to your body. And don’t put your clothes on the floor for the same reason. Every time I’ve gotten “athlete’s foot” its been from showering at the gym or pool, so you know there are germs there!
It should go without saying that you shouldn’t share makeup, chap-stick, lipstick, powder brushes, etc. that have been used by others because of the possibility that they may contaminate you. The risk is low, but there is some risk. Use a little common sense.

In an actual biological warfare attack:
If there is a known biowarfare release in your area and you use your car to drive home, your car may become contaminated inside (from you) and outside, and you may be taking deadly biological agents with you to contaminate your home. Also, studies have shown that nearby buildings are a much better shelter from biological or chemical weapons than cars are.
If the government is pretty sure there has been a biological attack, go to the decontamination areas specified by the government over the radio or television. If you’ve gotten a good dose of germs you’re going to need professional medical help to decontaminate yourself and to survive the exposure. Quick use of your protective mask will reduce your exposure. The key phrase is “minimize your exposure.”
If you’re concerned about biological warfare, get more information from the Department of Homeland Security, the Centers for Disease Control, the RAND Corporation, or the American Red Cross. Paranoia doesn’t help, but reasonable preparation makes a lot of sense.

Print out, laminate, and refer to the following summary. Some habits are hard to break and will need constant work:

PERSONAL HYGIENE

Hand hygiene:
Keep your hands away from your face
Wash and thoroughly dry your hands frequently
Wear gloves if you know something is contaminated

At school, work, or shopping:
Wash your face a couple of times during the day [washcloth]
Don’t put stuff in your mouth.
After a potentially sick persons leaves, wipe down all of the hard surfaces
Spray your nose often

Restrooms:
Check the toilet seat
Check around and behind the toilet
Pre-flush
Wipe the seat
Make your splash-down damper
Use a toilet seat cover
Don’t touch the toilet seat or toilet rim
Step away from the toilet and dress. Exit the stall as the toilet is flushing.
Wash with soap and hot water – don’t touch the faucet handles afterwards
Don’t touch the restroom door handle – use a paper towel or something

Eating:
Minimize eating out.
Avoid salad bars, cold food counters, and buffets
Drink lots of pure water.

Public Transit: (in addition to the above)
Leave rested and well fed.
Bring your own pillow
Avoid alcohol on your trip - it dries out your body quicker.
If you’re seated near someone who’s obviously ill, just move

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Friday August 25 2006

Novel H5N1 Bird Flu Sequence in Garut Cluster?

Hello Jim:
Thought that this might be important, so am sending you a link to an article from Recombinomics. Read carefully--and between the lines. On the first page, click on the 'alarming' link. Then on that page, click on the 'rapidly growing cluster' link. From there, the next interesting link is 'have failed to match'.
Hopefully this is not the beginning of rapid H2H transfer, but Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) does seem to be mutating rapidly. When the folks at Recombinomics, ProMED, and CIDRAP all seem to be concerned, I get just a bit on edge. Thanks, - Cactus Pete in Oklahoma

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Tuesday June 20 2006

Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu and Waterfowl Migratory Flyways

1) I don't know if you've seen it yet, but there is a map of "Waterfowl Flyways of North America" (put mouse cursor on icon in lower right corner and click to enlarge). This shows the routes that migratory ducks and geese follow when they return to the southern USA in the fall after mingling with Eurasian migratory birds in the subarctic over the summer.
2) That is, the map shows the primary routes along which Avian flu would be transmitted into the USA:
a) Coastal bays like the Chesapeake and Delaware on the East Coast and San Francisco on the West Coast ,
b) Major rivers like the Hudson (New York), Susquehanna (Pennsylvania), Potomac (Maryland/Virginia), Mississippi plus tributaries (Midwest),
Ohio (Midwest), and Columbia (Oregon) , and
c) Either side of major barriers like the Rocky Mountains, the deserts of Nevada/Arizona, and the Sierra Mountains
3) Note that it's possible that an Avian flu pandemic might persist for several years, since flocks of migratory waterfowl form a "reservoir" in which it can culture --in the same way that the plague is preserved in prairie dog colonies of the Southwest U