I’ve been fortunate to live in the same general area for my entire adult life, the Rocky Mountains of Utah. I am very familiar with the area made more so by various employments, a variety of interests all centered around the outdoors and twenty years of being a Scout Master. Being familiar with my surroundings for a long period of time increases my knowledge base of useful things to know, information unique to my immediate surroundings.
    
I have always been curious and a great observer, of both people and things.  Some years ago my brother mentioned something to me when we were talking about being prepared if anything big should happen. At the time he worked for a national car wash company, traveling around the region inspecting various car washes.  He said he didn’t need to store a fresh water supply because all of the car washes have enormous tanks of fresh water underground; most have more than 2,000 gallons. People didn’t know this so he figured he could use these as a source for fresh water. 
    
A light bulb went off in my head. This conversation was the start of what I call my Long Term Situational Awareness. I am always on the look out for information that could help me if I have to G.O.O.D. or heaven forbid if TEOTWAWKI happens; information, places and people that I store away in my data banks so I don’t have to figure it out on the run. For example the water tanks underneath car washes, I might have figured that out eventually, but now I know right where to head.
    
Here are some of the things I have made mental notes about that I think will give me an edge.  Maybe you can keep an eye out for this stuff in your immediate vicinity.  The longer you are in the same area, the more information you can collect.  The more stuff you know, the better your odds are of getting out and surviving.
    
ESCAPE ROUTES: Where I live we our bound on the West by a harsh desert environment, not a good escape route.  To the East are mountains, which I know intimately from hunting and camping, especially every paved and dirt road in an out of them for fifty miles. It would take several road blocks to prevent me from getting where I wanted to go if I choose to go that direction.  This direction is my choice if evasion or defense is the highest priority.  

There is only one North South freeway, which of course would prove completely useless. A bottle neck of both surface streets and alternate routes to the South make this direction a bad choice.  To the North, a bottle neck of alternate routes is still passable but not ideal. A little known closed rail road line, (Google Earth is a great source to start looking for these kinds of routes.) is only blocked by a flimsy gate. It bypasses the bottleneck by twenty miles.  A friend showed me this years ago as an access to some hunting ground.  I realized its other potential as an escape route and have never forgotten it. If I have to bug out, I’m going north.  
FOOD: We all know the grocery stores, convenience stores and restaurants will be looted first.  I’ve noted several places that might be over looked at least during the first few days. I keyed in an idea several years ago that anyplace that serves meals to large groups of people will have stores of food.  

There are two small convention centers within five miles of my house.  They are not in a retail, shopping or restaurant area, they are in the office and business districts.  I go to both several times a year.  Every night of the week they cook and serve dinner for several hundred people. The convention centers have storage rooms and commercial kitchens that will probably be overlooked in the first few days [of a societal collapse].
    
Any place with a snack bar, especially in an overlooked area, is a great source for food supplies.  I know of three indoor soccer arenas with snack bars.  All are in warehouse and industrial areas. All of them have snack bars and I’ve noted where the storage rooms are for the snack bars.  Two of the soccer arenas are on my bug out route.

The last several years I have seen an explosion of small gyms, many in strip malls and professional office districts.  Nearly all of these small gyms have supplies of nutrition and protein bars, bottled water and re-hydration drinks. Most will be overlooked the first few days.
    
Most Boy Scout camps store and cook food for hundreds of people everyday. I know of at least a dozen scout camps along different travel routes.

We have three, regional food distribution centers. These will be hit hard, but I know where they are and won’t have to look for them in the telephone book. What might be overlooked are the restaurant food supply companies. Not only might their warehouses be missed at first, some people might walk right pass a SYSCO semi truck and not realize it is filled with food. One semi truck from a restaurant supplier and I’m set.  I know the names of all the suppliers and their logos.  
    
Fuel:  Two miles from my home is a warehouse complex with over two hundred companies and a thousand semi-trucks, all with big fuel tanks, going in and out every day. It will obviously be looted, but it is so large the out lying trucks and smaller ware houses will go unnoticed at first.
    
Excavator companies and large construction companies often store their own fuel. I’ve hired several of these companies and have identified three that are located in areas that may be easily overlooked.

There is farmland all around me.  Many farmers store fuel.  This would be a last resort for me because they also have guns, know how to shoot, are willing to shoot and if any group will survive WTSHTF it will be farmers.

TEOTWAWKI         
A few random notes I’ve taken over the years in case I find myself in TEOTWAWKI situation. I know where three large sheep herds and two large herds of cattle graze in the summer. I know where a high-fence elk hunting outfit is located with 300 head of elk. I know of three small residential subdivisions in the mountains that are self sustaining, on there own wells and solar powered. I know of three large snowmobiling lodges in the mountains that are self sustaining.  They are virtually abandoned six months out of the year.  I know where a small, private fish farm, surrounded by a hundred fruit trees can be found two miles past a locked gate. I know where all of the wildlife resources fish hatcheries are. I know where a rancher has sixty head of domesticated buffalo penned in a remote mountain valley.
    
All of these observations have taken no extra time and effort, simply the realization that someday I may need to know this stuff and it would be a good idea to remember them.  Keep your eyes and ears open, you never know what will pop out at you if you’re looking for it.   You never know what piece of information you store in your data banks will give you the critical edge.

JWR Adds: Most of the foregoing would only be appropriate in the aftermath of a situation with massive depopulation, such as a pandemic. In anything lesser, appropriating "abandoned" supplies would simply be unconscionable theft, because those supplies would still have rightful owners. There have also been several discussions in SurvivalBlog about the inadvisability of crossing private land that belong to someone else. Even worse is shooting someone's livestock. In essence, that is just a good way to get yourself ventilated, in the event of a societal collapse. I have posted this just to show SurvivalBlog readers one sort of threat that they will face. It is encapsulates the horribly astray and ill-advised "justified looting" mentality. Keep plenty of .308 ammo on hand. You may need it.

Dear James;
Here is an easy way to determine a year's supply of anything. You just need a calendar, a pencil, and the ability to count to two.

Say you're down to your last jug of cooking oil. Instead of buying one at the store, buy two, and write the item you purchased on the starting date on your calendar. Now, every time you replace that empty item, buy two more, instead of one, and rotate the oldest.

At the end of the year, when you transfer over Birthdays, etc, to next year's calendar, be sure to add the items you're tracking to the appropriate months.

At the end of one year's time, count the items you stored, and write that number down on your calendar. In one year's time, you will not only have stored a full year's worth of that item, you've recorded that amount on a permanent record. A year's worth of information eliminates unconscious over/under use or the occasional craving that might skew the desired tally.

If you've got a piece of scratch paper handy, here's how it works...

Make a mark for the one of whatever you're using. Add two more marks for the replacements, and line out the first mark you've theoretically used up. Now line out one of the marks, and add two more... Say you ran this out to 10 marks lined out. You have 11 marks left ...10 stored items, and the current one you're using. Neat trick, eh?

I suppose it's more fashionable to do the same thing on a shopping database, but we farmers are a stubborn bunch. Now, if only the banks would give out these wall calendars with the pocket for the month, like they used to, I'd be a lot happier. - Feral Farmer

For many, the idea of preparedness seems like an impossible undertaking. The amount of equipment and supplies needed is staggering. When I first came to the realization that I was under prepared, the gap between what I had and where I needed to be was too much for my public servant’s paycheck to bear.

I would spend a lot of time discussing preparedness with a group that I would go shooting with, and all of these meetings would always gravitate to “which weapon do you plan for X meters?” or “how many rounds do you think I need for X weapon?” I love to talk guns, but if we were discussing preparedness as a whole, we were leaving out lots of basic needs!

It seemed that the plan was to square one area of preparedness away before moving on to the next. I asked myself “what happens if I have to leave tomorrow?” I realized that having a little bit of everything to survive was better than having a pallet of ammo, but no food or water. This is where I decided that being honest about what I actually set aside for emergencies and developing a starting point was the best plan.

A friend of mine once said “you can’t boil the ocean; you have to start one pot at a time”. I developed the idea of categorizing my list of necessities then deciding what was a minimal level all the way to when I felt fully prepared.

This Good/Better/Best approach has helped me get a handle on the holistic approach to preparedness while still allowing me to keep my bills paid. A side benefit is that this incremental approach was that it was easier to get my wife to think about being more and more prepared without being in the poorhouse.

The first step is to categorize what types of things you deem necessary to survive. There are great resources already written that lay out categories and what goes in each, and this is not the the purpose of this article. For ease of discussion, I will use a couple examples such as food, water, communications, medical, etc.

The second step is to determine what your realistic plans will be, and set minimums for each option. Looking at these plans through the good/better/best approach I will explain how this incremental plan allowed us to stick with a plan and grow it as we can.

Good Plan (Bug In). This is most likely for many of us, such as floods/tornadoes/earthquakes. I know, to many people, planning on bugging in is not considered a ‘good’ plan, but this is compared to being totally unprepared, so being self sufficient at your house is a good start. The fall of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 gave my wife and I a wind storm that knocked out power for 10 days at our house, and an ice storm that knocked out power for an additional 8 days. Now the situation was not dire enough to pick up and leave, therefore the “bug in” was appropriate for us both times. Having set minimum supply requirements for a ‘good’ plan allowed us to manage the wind storm without any problems. Now lessons learned during the wind storm allowed us to plan for the following ice storm. We were better prepared for the second storm than the first, and it was fortunate since the weather conditions were worse. I can guarantee that we are better prepared now from those experiences.

Better Plan (Bug Out). A better plan would be to not only be prepared to bug in, but have the ability to mobilize with needed supplies and move to a predetermined location. This would be some factor that makes it not safe to remain at home. My wife and I have just built on to the existing supplies by adding the proper vehicle, and storing supplies in such a manner that they can be loaded into the vehicle in a matter of minutes. One thing that we both had to agree on was where were we going in case we had to pick up and leave. We still aren’t in a financial place to acquire retreat land, but we have trusted friends on a farm that we have that agreement with, and not only do we have our routes planned, but we have also stored some additional supplies at this ‘better’ location.

One thing that my wife and I have agreed on is certain red flags that prompt a bug out. We both work in emergency services and watch the news and the general demeanor of the public that we deal with on a daily basis. While nothing has necessitated a evac, there have been plenty of times when I drive to work loaded down with supplies and plans to meet her on the way out of town.

Again, let me reiterate that we weren’t comfortable moving to bug out plans until we felt that we could sustain ourselves at home for one month, since this was the what we considered as our minimum criteria. I wanted to get a bug out vehicle first, but after thinking about it, if I didn’t have a minimum supply of things such as food/water/shelter, then the vehicle wasn’t going to do a lot of good. Once our minimum amounts were met, then a truck was squared away, while also adding more to our supplies. The key was not to let the ‘fun’ purchases such as guns and vehicles get ahead of more mundane things such as spare medications and kerosene.

Best Plan (Retreat Living). As Mr. Rawles has pointed out, this is the ideal plan. Being able to weather any problems that befall us from within the confines of our own well prepared retreat is great. This is our ultimate goal, and with each bill paid off, it comes a little closer. However, I would guess that the most of us don’t wake up one morning and decide that ‘I think I’ll go buy a remote tract of land and build an uber-retreat on it’. You will have to decide when you can financially make this move, but you can’t go unprepared while you are saving for that moment.

I can’t give you a perfect plan to see you through incremental preparation, since no two people will have the same situation. What I can suggest is that you start with a pencil and paper, and be honest with what is set aside for rough times. Decide what supplies you will need per person (don’t count regularly used groceries, these are off limits until they near their shelf life- then replace, use or donate), and set a minimum of each category so you can gauge where your gaps are.

If you’re like us, when you sit down and write out what you have in the house, then separate those supplies from the others, you may be surprised at how prepared you are compared to what you thought. You may be well above minimum on certain things and seriously deficient on others.

Setting benchmarks for your categories should keep you on track as far as reaching each level of preparedness in a holistic way. Without these benchmarks, it becomes too easy to focus on one area, and neglect others.

Using the Good/Better/Best approach as it pertains to specifics.
Another place that I use the good/better/best approach is in each category of our preparedness. I consider a good (minimum) is having a quantity on hand, a better is having the means to get more, and best is having a sustainable/replaceable supply. I will give some examples of how this approach may be interpreted.

Water.
Good- One gallon per person per day, for X number of days.
Better- In addition to stored water, having purification means such as chemical/UV/filtration systems.
Best- Having a well, spring or refillable cistern in addition to the aforementioned.

Food.
Good- MRE’s and stored food.
Better- Stored food as well as hunting supplies and seeds
Best- Healthy land to hunt and farm, as well as canning means.

Communications.
Good- A single 50w HAM radio and some training
Better- 50w mobile base station and 5w handhelds for members of the group.
Best- A base station/repeater, 50w mobiles in every vehicle, and 5w’s for the group.

Medical (training)
Good- EMT
Better- Paramedic
Best- Wilderness Paramedic.

These are just some examples of how the good/better/best approach can allow you to become prepared all around incrementally, without running yourself into serious debt while doing so. Notice how each step builds on the last, as this allows you to constantly improve your preparedness, while not neglecting any area.

One last note- I challenge everyone to thrive by learning to adapt, rather than artificially maintain your comfort level. To clarify, during our winter power outage, my wife and I found alternate means to bathe, heat the house using our woodstove/kerosene heater, and worked by lamplight. Some neighbors tried to run their homes via generators, to find that some were stolen, broke down, and frequently ran out of fuel.

My challenge to you is to become familiar with your comfort zones and push past them. How long can you go without hot coffee? How about cigarettes or alcohol? How picky an eater are you or your family? These are not things to deal with when TSHTF. If you can quit any vices and expand your comfort level to outside the norm, then when the time comes, your stresses will be lessened.

A salvage economy is a post-production economy. The economy is based on salvage and then reuse or remanufacture of salvaged materials. The current modern equivalent of this are those individuals who sort through trash heaps and dumps for recyclable materials. The historical equivalent of this are the stone masons in Egypt who tore down ancient monuments for building material. For example, the lost Pyramid of Djedefre was thought to have not been built until its foundations were found, including a mortuary temple and queens’ pyramids. Where did it go? Must of it was used to build buildings in Cairo from 1300 through the 1700s. It was easier and cheaper to take apart an existing pyramid near the city than find, mine and transport new limestone blocks from now-distant quarries.

Salvage occurs when the manufactured product is unavailable in a new state, has become too expensive for anyone to purchase, or has a supply chain that has fallen apart to the degree that the product is often unavailable most of the time.

For all of the discussion on survival, why focus on long term survival on a salvage economy? First of all, many people will not set up a refuge in the wilderness. Their best survival opportunity seems to be within the city. While difficult, it is not impossible, especially for those who prepare. Secondly, if we do slide to a post-technical or “eco-technic” society, we should not expect to return to “Little House on the Prairie”. More than half of the world’s population lives in the cities. Those cities will still be there even if some catastrophe, be it nuclear, chemical, biological or EMP, manages to kill most of its inhabitants. And we should not expect all cities to be lost, even if several major ones are destroyed in terrorist strikes or war. If those untouched but partially depopulated or damaged but re-buildable cities can be utilized to rebuild civilization, which should be part of a larger goal. This rebuilding will then requires a salvage economy. And last but not least, if we have a multi-generational decline, we will fall into a salvage economy as manufacturing capacity fades. Even if we retain the capacity for a high-tech manufacturing capacity and find it crippled by environmental regulation and economic depression, we will find a salvage economy as has exploded in California.

If faced with a salvage economy, the question then rises: how do you survive long term in such an economy? More importantly, how can you prosper in a salvage economy?

1. Use creative recycling within your own household. If opportunities present themselves that can be ethically utilized, do so, but avoid scavenging for a living. (Hunting and gathering of food are excluded from this discussion. Here we are only discussing physical materials.)

2. Do not be a scavenger or salvager of materials yourself. This is to literally be at the bottom of the economic food chain. Be the collector or buyer that buys goods from the salvagers and then sells it at a profit to the recycler or craftspeople. This level of the supply chain is safer than doing the manual labor of salvaging, and your supply is both more diverse and continuous than those who do the actual salvaging. There is also less personal risk of injury or illness than salvaging. By becoming a collection point or “depot”, your own time is still mostly spent on survival related activities instead of searching for materials one only hopes to trade for items and resources needed for survival.

3. Have close and direct ties to multiple smelters or material re-processors. This provides more stability in sale price than if there is only one customer. A single purchaser can set their purchase price based on their ability to refuse to buy until you are hungry enough to sell at their desired price.

4. Invest in the replacement materials and goods that will replace salvaged product. After all, salvaged goods will eventually run out. This may be smelting equipment that can melt down the newly recycled metal into yet another material, compared to smelting equipment that melts down old steel beams into new steel goods. It may be plastic grinders and pellet makers that can turn new plastic materials into another form. It may be the act of investing in green energy projects as Peak Oil runs out and salvaging wood and plastic to burn winds down.

5.  Supply the material working tools needed by re-processors. This may be forges to be sold to metal workers or fuel to smelters. It could be molds or presses that can be sold to those recycling plastic. Create or produce what is needed for the salvage economy to turn salvaged goods into useable goods. The additional benefit of this is that there may be more than one re-manufacturer to sell these industrial essentials to, and one can always have the fall back of setting up the re-processing facility on their own property or help a neighbor do the same if the main re-processor shuts down.

6. Help develop the distribution market for existing salvaged goods, whether finding new uses for old salvaged goods or new demand for recycled products. By creating new markets or new customers, the profit margin is higher than competing with the existing salvage economy.

7. If shortages of obviously long-term useful materials are clear, consider stocking up on them. However, it is best to do so only if you can use them in your own business or own property. For example, copper tubing can always be used in plumbing projects or manufacturing of stills – or be sold to those manufacturing their own equipment. However, it is unwise to have hundreds of pounds of copper tubing sitting in storage if the money and space could be used to items with greater value to your household. Having a large stockpile of [cables or] solder wire may be critical if you are an avid ham radio operator and can generate extra income fixing and selling older rigs. But if you have no significant personal or business use and cannot barter it in sufficient quantity to acquire goods needed for life, use the space for food, water, or more valuable tools. However, if you have a small business that could use the materials or goods and it is a critical supply for those who may need it to rebuild technology as we rebuild, consider stockpiling it as a way to profit from the salvage economy.

8. Have the skills to fix salvaged items yourself. This may range from fixing broken toasters and radios to making small car parts to restore a heap of junk to a functioning car. Those who salvage are a dime a dozen. They could have been the migrant poor before the collapse, or they may have been hedge fund managers and bureaucrats who have no others skills than looking for and collecting salvage and scrap items. However, those who can take those broken things and make them functional will be a precious minority. If you do not have these fixer-upper skills, consider learning them.

Consider encouraging younger family members to learn these skills – be it wiring, tool and die cast, equipment repair or even complex mechanical assembly. Learning to read blueprints and manufacturing instructions would be an engaging project for any elementary school child. Fortunately, many of use have already stocked up these kinds of books in our homes, if only in the form of repair manuals for equipment and appliances we already own. Make it a reading assignment for yourself or your family members. Having these skills makes your labor valuable and your teaching ability even more so – and a non-tangible trade good that cannot be taken away.

While you are deciding what to store away, don't forget about the needs of your grandchildren. They will need reference books. After TEOTWAWKI, any survivors in the USA will be living on capital. I am talking about capital in the form of basic commodities, like grain, legumes, clothes, fuels, and machines. Some of this capital needs to be replaced almost immediately, like food, for instance, but some of it will take generations to wear out completely. Until we can replace everything we use up, we will not be truly recovered. Eventually, we will need to replace our generators, tractors, firearms, cloth, etc. Within a couple of generations, we will need to replace our basic garden tools like shovels and hoes and plows. Finally, we will need to resume production of basic materials like steel. We may be able to lean on other countries during our recovery, but It's going to be a long backward road for a long time until we can build and replace the capital we have now.

We used to be a powerful industrial nation, but today, we are not. Most manufacturing capability in the USA has been "outsourced" to China. The metal fabrication shops in the USA evolved over time into larger and more sophisticated (and more efficient) factories and were eventually defeated in the global market by cheap labor overseas. Now, a generation later, we are running out of people who even know how to cast or shape metal. Even as late as 1960, mom and pop metal shops were fairly common in the USA. I remember back when I was a boy, my uncle needed a tractor part that was no longer produced. He simply went to the metal shop in town and handed them the broken part. They made him a new one in a few days and helped him install it on his tractor. This capability has mostly disappeared in the US.

Metal working has become complex and very exact since the 1950s. The tolerances have gotten so tight that manual lathes and mills can't compete with specialized machines anymore. The equipment has gotten outrageously expensive and largely depends on micro-chips. To compete in the global market, you have to use very specialized tools and machines, or cheap labor. The cost of production has dropped so low that local shops with basic equipment can't compete and have slowly been replaced by cell phone vendors or other service economy businesses. A major economic crisis or EMP event would likely destroy most of our remaining production capability (or make the products they currently produce obsolete along with their specialized production facilities).

We need to preserve and pass on as much industrial knowledge as we can to the next generation and the next, because it is our grandchildren who will have the leisure time and capital to rebuild. Our own generation will be too busy providing bare necessities. After TEOTWAWKI, who is going to make pumps and critical parts for important machines? The answer is: Your children and grandchildren. If you can't master and pass on these critical skills, at least buy and store some books. I have some recommendations under each topic. You probably also need to store school books of all kinds, and begin formal home schooling almost immediately after a collapse, so the light of knowledge doesn't flicker out. Make reading, writing and math important to your children so they will pass it on.

If you are able to do it, passing down the skills directly to your descendants is the best approach. Working with your kids to teach them metal working skills can be a powerful way to grow together and instills the child with a sense of empowerment. "Bending the black metal to your will" is a powerful feeling. Metal work builds character and makes you feel like you have some control over the world. You feel like you can accomplish anything.

I believe a basic machine shop with a foundry and forge will be almost immediately valuable after TEOTWAWKI if you can get it up and running again without the power grid. Critical machines in your community will need repairs and parts will need to be fabricated and other machines will need to be adapted to new uses. This is fairly easy work if you have a well equipped shop and some skill. I have no doubt your machine shop will be in big demand pretty quick. The good news is, you can set up your own basic metal shop for a few thousand dollars. For under $5k, you can have a very efficient one or two man shop. You can also acquire metal working skills for free in your spare time as a hobby. The bad news is, you probably won't be able to make much money casting and machining from your home shop. It won't ever pay for itself as long as your work has to compete with China and the throw-away economy. Metal work in a home shop is more of a hobby these days than a valid business plan.

Critical capabilities:

-Smelting. Not immediately useful. This is the ability to turn ores into finished metals. Usually, this is accomplished by cooking ores with the appropriate fluxes and adding elements you want in the finished metal. Some metals like aluminum also require complex processing like electrolysis. (There was no such thing as [large scale production] refined aluminum until 1825.) With all the refined metal we have laying around on the planet, I see no need to learn and practice these arcane skills for many generations after TEOTWAWKI. Visit any junkyard and you can pick up tons of metal better than you could produce yourself. Raw materials are not an issue IMHO and if you have a good supply of general reference books, that's probably all you should do to preserve this knowledge.

-Founding. This is the ability to melt metal and cast it into a rough shape. If you keep this simple it's much easier than you probably think and can be done on a tiny scale in your back yard. Each metal alloy has a different melting point (and obviously many other different properties). Casting aluminum alloys requires a foundry capable of reaching only 1,250F while casting steel requires a much more robust foundry that can reach close to 3,000 F. Casting Iron is probably beyond most people, but non-ferrous metals are not hard at all. Many machine parts can be made of aluminum, copper or bronze castings and work about as well as steel. While cupric metals are horribly expensive, aluminum is cheap. You can practice casting using aluminum for almost nothing. You can build a hobby-scale foundry for non-ferrous metals for under $200 and turn out small machine parts at least as good as any factory. A good reference for this is Stephen D. Chastain's two volume set "Metal Casting: A Sand Casting Manual for the Small Foundry". He also has a book called "Iron Melting Cupola Furnaces for the Small Foundry" that provides complete plans and operating instructions for a larger scale coke fired iron furnace.

-Forging. This is the ability to hammer metal and change the shape. It's much easier and cheaper to pound steel into shape than try to cast it. Blacksmiths heat steel, reshape it using a hammer and tongs and then heat-treat it to whatever temper is needed. A very professional forge can be home-built for under $400, even if you buy most of the parts. A decent anvil can be had for about $400 (or much less if you compromise). Most of your other blacksmith tools, you can make yourself from scrap steel. You can design a forge to burn propane, coal, or charcoal. To learn more, visit Ron Reil's web site and follow the links. I built a propane forge similar to the ones described on Ron's site from an empty propane tank and used a venturi burner made from plumbing parts for under $100. Four years ago I broke down a bought a professionally made burner from Rex Price. Rex is a great American who operates a "mom and pop" machine shop with his sons. He makes venturi burners that I can't recommend highly enough.

If you ever need to convert to another fuel, such as charcoal, it's pretty easy to do. I built a charcoal forge and a bellows in one day from an old grill. If you keep a few fire bricks, and a few pounds of satanite refractory cement on hand, you can build a new charcoal forge in less than a day. These materials are cheap and abundant now with internet shopping, but will be difficult to get after TEOTWAWKI. While you can do without them, they sure make your life easier.

There is no substitute for a good anvil. The bigger it is, the more stable it is and the more enjoyable it is to work with. But, if you need to, you can get by with using almost any heavy chunk of steel or even a big rock. My first anvil was a 16 pound sledgehammer head and it worked pretty well. The Vikings turned out some wonderful steel work with much less. The only specialized or expensive tool I recommend is a trip hammer. They are quite expensive, bulky and heavy, but you can do a lot more work with a power or even a foot operated hammer than you can by hand. It will triple your productivity and save fuel.

Blacksmithing is a lot of fun and easier than you probably think. I can recommend two great references: "The Blacksmith's Craft: A Primer of Tools & Method" by Charles McRaven, and "The Complete Modern Blacksmith" by Alexander Weygers. [JWR Adds: I also recommend Weygers' slim tome: "The Making of Tools"]

-Grinding and filing. This is the ability to abrade metal. Even something as simple as sharpening an axe requires this capability. There are a variety of power tools used for these operations. A good 8 inch Bench grinder costs about $150 and you can get a decent 4 inch belt grinder for around $200 for a home shop. These, of course require electricity and replacement abrasives. The old-school way was a foot powered stone wheel. To my knowledge, you can't even buy one of those anymore. Instead, if the power goes out for good, I plan to build my own, probably based on a bicycle chain drive and use existing abrasive wheels from electric bench grinders. An even older method was to use sand held by damp cloth or leather, but I would sure hate to try that.

Files used to be the most important tool in the machine shop. They were (and are) used to precisely shape and fit metal parts. 19th century machining depended almost entirely on files instead of lathes and mills and grinders. Steam engine parts were largely shaped using a lost art called "Flat Filing". While modern practitioners can't approach the accuracy and uniformity the machinists demonstrated in the age of steam, it's relatively easy to fit machine parts and castings using a set of good files. While you probably couldn't fit a BMW piston, you might be able fit cast parts with looser tolerances, like from a farm Tractor or old Ford truck. Unfortunately, files are extremely difficult to make yourself and they wear out with time. You will probably be able to replace them for some years after TEOTWAWKI by scavenging, but buying a good assortment now will cost less than $150. Buy top quality files. Craftsman (Sears) makes good files. Cheap files are useless. The best way to learn proper parts fitting technique is to just do it.

-Bending/shaping sheet metal: Sheet metal is amazing when you consider it. Imagine trying to beat a chunk of steel into sheet metal on an anvil and you will appreciate that to create new sheet metal after a disaster, you will have to have some large machinery. Fortunately, with millions of dead automobiles and appliances laying around, you should have plenty of raw material for a few generations. You can make almost anything you can think of with sheet metal. It's especially handy for making cooking vessels and containers of all kinds. You can do basic sheet metal work with only a pair of pliers and some tin-snips, but for serious work, you need a sheet metal brake and an assortment of vices and dies. Before you buy any tools read a good book on the topic. This is a great reference, but a little pricey: Sheet Metal Forming Processes and Die Design

-Tapping. This is simply cutting screw threads. Fortunately, taps and dies for cutting screw threads are still manual for the most part.

-Welding. This is the ability to join two pieces of metal by melting them into each other. There are basically 3 ways to weld. Forge welding, arc welding and torch welding. You can also use thermite to weld large pieces. Welding is a huge topic and a whole career field on it's own. Being able to join to pieces of metal with a weld joint is a useful skill.

1. Forge welding is used to mix or join two hunks of metal by whacking them with a hammer. It's useful for making axes, chains and other tools, but in the modern world, it's mostly practiced to make expensive pattern welded (damascus) knife blades. This is one of the skills you master as you learn to be a blacksmith and the techniques are covered pretty well in the blacksmith references.

2. Arc Welding. This is using low voltage-high-current electrodes to create an electrical arc that heats surrounding metal. Arcs are very hot, but they effect a relatively small area. Working with simple low-carbon structural steels, arc welding is pretty easy to learn and requires very rudimentary equipment. $300 dollars can buy a decent basic rig. The hard part is buried in the details of improving on this basic capability. To weld complex alloys to each other or to prevent oxygen absorption (and later rust), requires a lot of knowledge, skill and better equipment. I have the most rudimentary equipment possible and almost no skill, so I can't recommend a reference.

3. Torch welding. Oxygen and acetylene from large tanks are mixed and burned to form a hot jet capable of heating, welding and cutting steel. Getting replacement gasses will be difficult after a couple of years, but while they last, this is a great tool. Again, having very limited skill at welding and no torch of my own, I cannot recommend a reference.

-Brazing and soldering. This is non-ferrous welding. It can be done at a much lower temperature than welding, usually using a propane, MAPP-gas or oxyacetylene torch for heat. Soft soldering is much easier than brazing and is very useful for working on electronics. I don't often braze so I have no recommendations on learning this skill.

-Riveting. This is one of the easiest methods for fastening metal pieces together. Most people have used a pop-riveter. The problem is, pop rivets are not easy to make and the supply will someday run out. Also, pop-rivets are weak compared to heavy steel rivets. Real rivets can be made as thick and strong as you need. They are cut and hammered from steel rods using a forge, hammer and tongs. They are easy, secure and quick to use, so they were very popular in the 19th century. Forge riveting is covered in the references on blacksmithing.

-Cutting. This is the most common operation you will probably do in a machine shop. Everything you make will require you to cut metal. There are a lot of methods for cutting metal, and you may use all of them interchangeably, depending on the materials you have to cut.

1. Hot or cold chisel cutting. This is simply heating metal until it's soft and then cutting it with a hammer and chisel. You can also cut bars quickly and easily on a hardy (an anvil tool accessory). This will be a quite common way to cut bar stock and will be the only method easily available once all the saw blades and torches are useless. I have split a truck leaf-spring lengthwise using this technique. While it's very laborious, it works every time and requires nothing high-tech. For smaller jobs or softer metals. You can also cut with a cold-chisel without heating. Techniques are covered in the aforementioned blacksmithing references.

2. Hand saws. Hacksaws are still commonly used in metal work. They are the workhorse of some shops. With enough patience and enough blades, you can saw a car in half. Buy only good blades to cut hard steel and keep them cool using cutting fluid or oil to cool the cut and remove chips. Making or re-sharpening hacksaw blades is possible, I suppose, but I have never tried it. Once all the hacksaw blades are gone, hand cutting is going to get much harder, so make life easier on yourself and stock up.

3. Power saws or angle grinders. There are many different power cutting options out there and none of them are pleasant. I use a reciprocating saw, jigsaw, angle-grinder and a circular saw. All of them require proper blades which are expensive. After a crash, you may wind up trying to make your own blades or re-sharpen them. For that, the easiest is the simple reciprocating saw. If you get the balance or temper a little wrong on a chop-saw or an angle grinder you might get hurt or even killed. If you get a reciprocating saw blade wrong, you won't get hurt. Also, the blades are much simpler to make on a forge and the teeth are fewer and easier to cut with a chisel.

4. Torch cutting. If you have an oxyacetylene torch (or a plasma cutter) they make short work of cutting steel. Watch out about overheating any steel part that requires a known carbon content or accurate tempering. High temperatures cause loss of carbon and can result in spongy, brittle or soft steel. Some steel alloys react very badly to extreme temperatures and the finished part or tool will fail without warning if burned.

5. Shearing. This is the preferred way to cut thin metal, like sheet metal. A large pair of tin-snips or shears will make cleaner, easier cuts than any other method.

-Drilling. This is the ability to make holes in things. Making a precise hole in hard metal is a complex task. Drill presses with micrometer tables are indispensable to a good machine shop. A good drill press can easily cost over $1,000, but unless you need a very high level of precision, you can get by with a $300 press. If you are planning to buy a mill and your shop is small, you might not need a separate drill press. Drill bits are relatively easy to make yourself, but you will lose precision. There will probably be no problem with re-supply of drill bits for a number of years after a crash.

-Turning and milling. This is the ability to spin a metal part and symmetrically cut it to a perfectly round shape or precisely cut complex shapes into metal parts using a spinning cutter. Lathes are one of the most versatile power tools available and it will be impossible to do without them completely. Some method will have to be found to power lathes after a crash if we are to recover. A good lath or mill can be very expensive. But look closely at what you are buying. You don't want a computerized machine or digital anything. Precision is less important than reliability. For a small shop, a combination lathe/mill makes a lot more sense than two power tools and will save you a little money. A very basic, fairly accurate combo tool can be bought right now for under $1,000. This is the most expensive tool in your shop, so choose wisely. With a combo tool, you can do almost any turning or milling or drilling operation you can think of. (If you have a mill, then you don't need a drill press).

There are no hand powered drill presses, milling machines or metal lathes on the market today. 19th century mills used to power their machines using wide belts driven by water or steam. There are not many steam engines laying around these days and modern appliances are not easily convertible to other power sources. They usually have a belt drive, but it's not situated to make conversion to water or animal power easy, even if you are otherwise set up to do that. Once the power is off, you will need to produce electricity to use modern machine tools. Practically speaking, there is no easy way around this. You might be able to run a small mill off of a vehicle and alternator using a large inverter, but you really need more reliable and cheaper power than a vehicle can produce. You will need some kind of generator, at least 4000 watts to really have a working machine shop. Without power, you will be reduced to using a "brace and bit", anvil and forge and files or grinding stones for all your work and your efficiency will drop off to next to nothing.

So, what can you do with your cool metal shop?

Create a machine replacement part from scratch: Whatever metal part breaks on a machine, you have a pretty good chance of being able to fabricate a new part. If you have an example of the part you want to make, you can usually cast a blank part using your foundry. Even if a part is broken, or missing pieces, you can duplicate it if you can guess the missing parts and build a model from wood or something. Sand casting produces a rough shape only. When you dump your mold, you will have an object that vaguely looks like the part you want. It must be filed, turned, drilled or milled to final shape and then fitted carefully to replace the part needed. Some parts can be forged into rough shape and then filed or ground to fit. You can fabricate and fit a new part in a single afternoon with the right equipment. Useful? You better believe it.

Create a fixture. Often, you suddenly need a hinge, hook or lock or something from the hardware store. You can make mostly anything you can think of quite quickly using your forge and other equipment. I can't count the times I have quickly hammered out new fixtures using junk steel because I was too lazy to drive 10 minutes to Lowe's. Horse shoes and spike candle holders are easy. Fireplace furniture is a snap. Hinges, buckles, latches and hooks are pretty easy too. If you need it, you can probably make it.

Make a tool or knife: With a forge, you can bend and shape steel in many different ways. If you can think of a hand tool, you can probably make it. But, don't expect miracles, you are basically whacking a hunk of steel with a hammer. You cannot create small precision parts and tools on an anvil. You can, however rough them out and use a file to shape them into final form. You can also carefully control the temper of steel tools and produce superior cutting edges, all with primitive gear and no electrical power.

Making a pot, pan, colander, container, or set of dishes: You can make almost anything of this sort out of sheet metal taken from old appliances or cars. If you need a new tool box, just whip one out.

Turn junkyard steel into useful machines. Okay, this is harder than repairing an existing machine, but it's conceivable that you could design, cast, and fit your own steam engine or something equally impressive. The sky is the limit.

The quicker we can get rudimentary local industrial capability back in action, the easier restoration of society will be. - JIR

This article has nothing to do with any special properties of the number ten, but rather refers to a progressive planning method based on the size of a problem. This is a way to organize thinking and planning for chaotic situations.  

“If you fail to plan, you’ve planned to fail”.   It would be irresponsible to present any particular plan as suitable for everyone, however, these are some guidelines on how and why you should develop your own plans.  Why do I have the nerve to write this piece?   I’ve been in the middle of more than one “adventure”… and in only one of them did I have any preplanned resources.  I’ve been thinking and planning about survival issues for decades.

SHTF or TEOTWAWKI can mean different things at different times.  While many web sites focus on total breakdowns, the fact is that for any given person walking across the street without looking both ways and being killed by a truck, it’s the same as the whole planet getting smacked by a 50 mile wide asteroid.  The focus of the “Power of Ten” is based on the premise that almost everyone has sudden small emergencies. Preparation for small emergencies as a part of a larger overall plan is a useful approach, because a small one day emergency can stretch out to many days.  Those who are prepared have the chance at survival    

Consider some small emergencies: Imagine losing electric power for four hours. Depending on individual circumstances, this can be an annoyance, up to a catastrophe. Suppose power goes out for four days. Again, depending on weather and climate, this can become a much bigger problem.  My daughter and her husband live in deep New England. Last winter their power went out for days.   No heat, frozen pipes - and even though they were able to get a generator, they had to spend a good bit of time on the phone with me to figure out how to connect it. Do you have a generator? Do you know how to safely hook it up? Do you know why it might not be a good idea to power up your whole house and light it like a Christmas tree? Do you know how to hook up even a small generator to keep just your vital services going?  Will your existing plan for a SHTF situation have any elements in it to help if the power goes out during a 2 day ice storm?

Enough examples, so let’s get to the point.

Every one needs a plan, a realistic plan.  If the plan isn’t written down and everyone who is to participate in that plan does not understand it and their clearly defined roles in the plan, then you don’t have a plan!  The facts are that, “No plan survives its first touch with reality” and “You can’t plan for everything”.  But you can -and must- start to plan with everyone in your household included.

No plan can cover all eventualities when first written, or ever for that matter.  GOOD plans are written to reflect one’s understanding of what they are trying to accomplish with what resources they have at any one time.  GOOD plans are read, reviewed and revised as necessary.  The best plans cover a range of problems.  They contain bits and pieces that help with small, large and huge problems and for scenarios never anticipated. Hence the title of this piece.

Here is where the “power of 10” can help you to get organized. Plan for… 1 day, 10 days, 100 days, 1,000 days….(and gulp)…10,000 days.  You cannot get to day 10 if you don’t survive day 1 and not to day 100 unless you survive day 10.

I am a firm believer in modular planning,  The plan to survive 10,000 days (Yes, 27+ years) is made of elements that one uses to survive 1, 10 and 100 days... after all, on Day 1, there isn’t going to be an announcement saying.. “This event will be over in…” that you can believe anyway!   I believe that it is totally foolish to start one’s planning with “How am I going to survive a total collapse”.   Start with a 1 day plan for each season and for different events, then work towards the 10 day plan, again for each season and for different events. Doing this will help you build that 1,000 or 10,000 day plan more effectively.  You should already have handy what you need for the “one day plan”, if not, get it, then work towards the 10 day plan. When you have that plan written and reviewed, it’s time to start implementing.  Buy what you need and set it aside so it can be used.  Talk to the whole family about the plan.  Include everyone – kids, old folks, and don’t overlook pets.

As an example, I live in a coastal community on the eastern seaboard.  My one day plans are one set of plans, my 10 day plans another…and my 10 day plan will vary depending on what I’m planning for.  A winter ice storm that kills power is one plan, and evacuating in the event of a hurricane, quite another.  Folks talk about are they going to be “Bugging In” or “Bugging Out”.  When asked which you will do, the only correct answer should be, “It Depends!”  You need to be ready for the unexpected.  How do you do that?   Think independence, dependence on nothing other than what you have in hand. When talking to a friend about this essay, they said, “One day plan, who needs one?”.  Who?  Me, you, everyone!  I’ve been traveling worldwide for business on and off since the days of the Boeing 707s.  My rule after my first flight:  always have in hand what you need for at least 24 hours without outside help when you leave for the airport. More than once over the years, this policy has made my life immensely easier and more comfortable. Additionally, planning and acting on a day to day basis for emergencies, instantiates a “survival mentality” that realistically, we need to be in constantly.  Most often, emergencies do not come with warnings ahead of time.

I firmly believe that the minimum plan one should have thought through, written out, and implemented is the 10 day plan… for both “bug-in” and “bugout”.  And on the subject of “bugging out”: One needs to have different destinations for different scenarios.  There are a pair or scenarios that I’ve planned for where we bug out to my brother’s home well north of me and a scenario where he comes here.

As to getting from here to there… as mentioned above I live in a coastal community.  On summer weekends, 90 min trips from “the city” can take four hours in good weather.  If it got to be “bugout” time for us, the last piece of road I’ll be driving on will be the local superhighway. I’m sure if most of you think about it, that nice bit of superhighway that’s your first thought for any trip won’t be viable.    Plan your routes, and your secondary route and if you are fortunate enough… a third route. Try not to depend on the Interstates.  Don’t plan to use that great GPS navigation box in your car.  The GPS system is managed by the government.  It can and has been shut down in the past by the government when they thought they had a need.  Get good paper maps. Mark routes.  As to the Interstates, the legislation that funded them states that the Government can restrict use of the Interstates to military use only as needed.

Okay… you should work towards having plans as follows:

1 and 10 Day:

This does not mean that you need 24 plans… In your individual situation, you probably will only need 2 or 3 bug-in and bug out plans that you can use/reuse/equip/stock as modules.  And for all bugout scenarios, plan what you will do if you end up on foot.

Beyond 10 days to 100 days and beyond…

Now things get more difficult.  You can stock up on 6 months or a year of “survival food” which may work out, if you and that food all get to be in the same place. Is your Bug-Out Vehicle a diesel powered International Harvester all-wheel drive 26 foot truck?  How about stocking six months or a year of required medications?  Or six months or a year's worth of fuel?

Frankly, somewhere between 10 and 100 days is where the (first) big crunch will happen. I’ve heard some say… “Oh, I’ve got my retreat in western “Pennsyltucky” all stocked up!” Yes, you can do that, and that could be your plan, however, I suggest that if all you are going to do is move your kith and kin to a isolated place in the “wherever”, and sit on and eat off your stockpile without having any skills related to the current situation to contribute to the community, you will become a foraging opportunity.  Plan on bringing “value” to whatever community you will be moving into (i.e., hedge fund managers without any other skills, need not apply).  No matter what you bring or have stockpiled, if you don’t have useful skills to bring to the community appropriate to the situation, you will just become a burden to that infrastructure -which is likely to need help not an additional burden.  BTW, being a good shot and well armed is necessary, but not sufficient in my context.

I don’t have any guidelines to share for these very long range plans other than the speculation that beyond 100 days, either our military will be moving in and trying to bring order, or… someone else’s military will (barring an extinction event asteroid),   as one of our “creditors” may decide to “foreclose” to “protect their interests”, or for “humanitarian interests” .   When the military moves in, I suspect that those whose plans started with:  “ my 12 gauge, my AK and my 9mm and 1,000 rounds for each” and ended with a backpack or pickup truck full of food and a plan to high tail it into the woods somewhere, will either be waiting for a burial detail to get to them, or run the risk of being hunted like vermin.

To sum it up…Create a written plan.  Address specific scenarios. (note plural).  Review and discuss plans with those who will be included in them. Change (improve) them as events and resources will allow.  Plans need to be practiced.  Plans should include action/role sheets for everyone, especially for an emergency bugout.  As a small example: last week, my wife and I went to the local range.  I very much wanted to bring my spotting scope as we were firing an iron sighted 22 LR bolt action rifle among other things and I needed it to see shots in the black at 25 yards.  When we unloaded at the range, no spotting scope!   I’d left it home.

Your plans, or even the existence of them, probably should not be topics of conversations at back yard barbeques as there is always at least one “opportunist” at one.  Get to know your neighbors, to see if they could be depended on for mutual aid. You don’t have to like them, but you may need to trust them.  That crusty grump up the street may very well have skills and experience that could be handy.  Running off into the sunset, or the hills, or turning your home/farm/retreat in the boonies into an armed bunker is not a plan… it’s the survivalist fairy tale.  Only those who plan are the ones who may have the chance to live happily ever after.

Sir:
Hand tools are nearly useless if not properly maintained. This concept seems under emphasized in preparedness literature.

One should have a stash of assorted files and sharpening stones, as they can be broken or worn out.

Items like hacksaw blades that are nearly impossible to make at home should be acquired in quantity. People should also buy a quantity of tool steel and drill rod suitable for fashioning cutting tools.

Thanks for your advice on your blog site and for your novel "Patriots" . Regards, - Jim J.

James,
Okay, a year or three goes by, [after TEOTWAWKI]. My wife can sew, but where do you get cloth and thread?

I love Goretex (since I live in Western Oregon), but where do I replace those great Hi-Tec boots?

No one seems to be discussing what happens when a shoelace brakes after Schumer is in session. You can hardly find them now.

Cloth - one will make a spinning wheel and loom after "the fan" has become clogged!

All that I can recall is an anecdote about the early Oregon Trail, when the newly arrived - skinny and starving (but had good threads)- were greeted by the locals (fat and in rags)...

I woke up early this morning dreaming about this. Any ideas? Thanks, - Steve S.

JWR Replies: There will be no perfect substitutes to modern clothing and modern shoes/boots in a long term societal collapse.

Consider that shoes and boots weren't even made with distinct "right and left" shape lasts until the early 1800s. Thus, you can get an appreciation for the level of comfort that we can expect, if and when we are suddenly thrown back into a medieval level of existence.

In anticipation of chronic shortages of good quality footgear and clothing in MGTEOTWAWKI, I can recommend the following as a baseline of preparedness:

1.) Stock up in depth on garments, coats, underwear, shoes, and boots. Watch for "Going out of business" sales and be sure to patrol your local thrift store vigilantly. Buy low, stack deep.

2.) Don't overlook the need to buy children's clothing and shoes in graduated sizes. If and when your own kids outgrow those sizes, you can pass them along to others, charitably.

3.) Develop traditional sewing, spinning, weaving, and cobbler skills, as previously discussed in SurvivalBlog. Stockpile the requisite tools and supplies, including sewing needle assortments in a wide variety of gauges, thread of various thicknesses, heavy waxed thread, a sewing awl, and so forth. If nothing else, it is important to learn how to make tire sandals, and how to make moccasins. These won't be a proper replacement for a nice pair of Danner boots, but they will be better than nothing!

The recent earthquake in the island nation of Haiti illustrates the fragility of all societies. While Haiti is unusual in its lack of infrastructure and its high dependence on foreign aid--more than half of its annual government budget comes from foreign aid--it is still similar in many ways to other nations: From the 1960s to the turn of the 21st century, as in many other nations, Haiti became an urbanized nation. Before the 1960s a substantial portion of Haitian society still lived on rural semi-self sufficient farmsteads. But as urbanization and specialization went on, fewer and fewer people lived off the land and more and more citizens became dependent on foreign aid and a scant number of industrial jobs. This trend has been repeated around the globe, making nearly all societies increasingly vulnerable to disasters, man-made or natural. The resiliency of traditional agrarian societies has sadly become a thing of the past. Here in America, 2% of the population now feeds the other 98%. This is now something that First, Second, and Third World nations have in common. America is more like Haiti than we'd like to think. Human nature is the same in every culture and nation: fundamentally sinful.

The Thin Veneer

With a few exceptions, most notably in Oceania, traditional Christian values have slipped away in much of the western world. When times get tough the citizenry of most nations loses all compunctions about using violence to expropriate the property of others. As I've written before, modern societies have just a thin veneer of civilization that covers something quite odorous beneath. Here in modern western societies, folks like to think of themselves as highly civilized, but when the Schumer hits the fan, there's no difference between people in the First World and the Third World.

As prepared individuals, we have the opportunity to set ourselves apart with a higher standard of behavior than those who resort to their baser instincts in time of crisis. It's important that there are some of us that have both the means and the willingness to help restore order and free commerce in the event of societal disruption.

The recent events in Haiti should be a reminder that in times of crisis things can easily fall apart. What happened in Haiti was dramatic, and a naturally occurring event, but because of the vulnerabilities of all modern societies, there could just as well be a reversion to savagery in a situation such as an economic collapse. We need to have our Beans, Bullets, and Band-aids squared away, so we can focus on more important things in a disaster than just finding food and water. Not only do we need to just prepare for surviving the next day, but also to be useful in rebuilding infrastructures and free commerce. This requires preparing with logistics as well as training and practicing to be ready to step into the breach.

The Charity Imperative

First World nations have become focused on large organizations, both governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), dispensing charity. The collective psyche is geared toward watching suffering "someplace far away", and dialing an 800 number to make a contribution via credit card. While I truly appreciate people's generosity, it is something quite far removed from preparedness to dispense charity locally.

In the event of a disaster closer to home, credit cards won't do the job. It takes tangible goods in hand to solve crises in your own backyard. So, it's important that we stock up, both for ourselves, and to dispense copious charity to relatives, friends, co-workers, and neighbors. In the event of a nation-wide disaster here in America, there will be no relief from abroad. We must reconstitute internally, starting at the local level. Here is where your skills, your tools, your gear, your garden seed, and your grub will be crucial.

When it comes to knowledge you'll need to be prepared to disseminate crucial, yet simple technologies to your neighbors. These could include how to build a inertial water pump, how to build a simple 12VDC fuel transfer pump, and how to build simple solar projects, such as solar stills, cold frames and green houses, solar ovens, and solar dehydrators. And don't forget, that in the event of a crisis, your local photocopy center is unlikely to be in operation. So, it is important to prepare multiple hard copies of key pieces of information now, to have on hand to distribute when times get tough. There is a wealth of knowledge available on traditional skill and technologies in the SurvivalBlog archives and elsewhere on the Internet, from organizations such as Steve's Pages, Volunteers in Technical Assistance (VITA), The Hesperian Institute, The Peace Corps, OISM, Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP), and Backwoods Home Magazine. Take advantage of these resources, and make those photocopies so that you will be able to share that knowledge with others!

Teaching for the Moment

Elementary school teachers here in the United States use the phrase "teach for the moment," to describe turning current events into teaching opportunities. I recommend that any conversations amongst your neighbors, coworkers, or church brethren be used as opportunities to spread the philosophy of family preparedness. Water cooler chit-chat should not just be "ain't it awfuling" sessions. You should instead use such conversations to encourage others to actively prepare for similar situations. And if anyone says, "Oh, but it couldn't happen here," then just remind them about the aftermath Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Not only has it happened here before, but it is likely to recur often within our lifetimes.

The Haitian earthquake of 2010 is a stark reminder of the fragility of all societies. It shows us that we need to be well-prepared and vigilant. And for those of us that are not Secret Squirrels, we should also be quietly and persistently leading public opinion, locally.

Having spent a lot of years on military planning staffs, I can't help war-gaming scenarios. In short (as you know well) Course of Action (COA) development is a big part of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and is a fairly reliable way of looking at possibilities and choosing likely sequels, given scenarios. In effect, a way of war-gaming out the future. There are a number of horror scenarios that seem to me to be fairly probable and they keep going around and around in my head as I try to sequence them and assign probabilities to each one. I am haunted by the possible future, an occupational hazard for a professional planner. I sincerely hope our civilization outlives me because it's failure could be truly horrible.

I agree completely with you on relocation to safer areas and stocking a remote retreat in the hinter-boonies. That's the optimum solution and in worst case situations, it's really the only solution likely to work long term. Any of your readers stuck in less than optimum situations are going to make a valiant effort to survive, but their odds are not as good. I am one of these folks. I worry about the golden hoard more than anything else. I would like to pass on some thoughts on the subject of what the unwashed masses will be doing after TEOTWAWKI. I am only guessing, but my guesses are made using history as a template. If anyone disagrees with my analysis, I would love to hear about it.

What about those totally unprepared? What are they going to do? There are many survival strategies open to the unwashed masses other than sitting down and starving to death. We all need to compare our own plans with these other strategies because I guarantee some of these strategies will be used by the teeming masses. When the power grid drops and the food shipments end, the average citizen is going to get a huge shot of reality. Guessing what they are going to do WTSHTF is central to all other survival planning, especially in the Eastern US or Europe.

ASSUMPTIONS:
I am talking here about a total collapse situation, not a slow slide decline or regional disruption. You can pick your own favorite cause from an EMP event to a finance system failure. They all cause roughly the same sequence of events. The results of any catastrophic collapse could easily be worse than any fiction you have ever read. The worst case scenarios all result in disruption of services and quick spiral into anarchy, but leave most of the population alive and hungry. This is the stuff of nightmares.

To recap our unprecedented bad situation: The vast majority of people live in urban or suburban areas near large population centers. They are poorly prepared for any emergency and completely unable to live self sufficiently. The food production systems that currently supply their food are fragile and subject to catastrophic failure. Most people's very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile. (There are many dependencies, but I see these as the three key points of failure.)

Most people currently live shoulder to shoulder in unthinkable crowding. Once the triad of services breaks down, the vast majority of people will suddenly be living on a very limited amount of capital in the form of the tiny amount of consumables on hand in each city. Once the Evian is gone and the toilets don't work, they will have no way to get drinking water or even dispose of their own sewage. They are literally less than a week away from serious acute hunger.

This situation will not get better unless the government is able to restore critical systems very quickly. The odds of restoring order get worse the longer the crisis lasts as the teeming masses start migrating and civil order disintegrates. Assuming the government fails, the countryside cannot feed the population of the USA without modern fuel, finance, power and distribution systems in place. Using 19th century techniques (where that is possible), the farmland in the USA cannot begin to feed everyone. (Europe has the same problem). In short, people are living where there will be no resources and farmland (and farmers) will be overtaxed just to support locals. We don't have the capital goods (horses, tack, hand plows, tools, seeds etc ) or skills to go back to old farming methods quickly. The math points to a die-off larger than anything recorded in history. Did I miss any main points?

People are not going to starve to death quietly. They never do unless there is a government to enforce it. Every last one of them is going to try something to survive or even just hang on one more day. Humans are survivors. They are intelligent, ruthless and deadly omnivores. We use the terms "sheeple", or "Joe Six-pack" pretty flippantly, but even the most stupid human is very dangerous and many of the "sheeple" are not stupid or incompetent. They are, in fact, the most dangerous predators on earth. You are much better off surrounded by hungry tigers than hungry humans. On the other hand, these are real people that used to be your neighbors, mothers, fathers, daughters. When you look them in the face it's going to be very hard to pull a trigger.

AVAILABLE STRATEGIES:
This is not an all inclusive list. People are going to try all of these concurrently. I expect to see a general sequence of strategy choices, but it's not iron clad. While you would expect it much later in the crisis, you might run into a professional army on day one! The interplay of each strategy with the others is also hard to predict. People are going to try other things too (That I haven't thought of). Local variables will effect how each strategy plays out and what events are likely to occur. The interplay of all these activities is where my analysis breaks down in complexity. You have to evaluate them with local variables, so generalizations can only go so far. I believe people will try all of these strategies. Some of them will work, but most of them will fail. There are only so many resources.

1. Begging/bartering. This is probably the first strategy you will encounter. Begging will go on until the very end. This strategy is open to everyone. It will work better for weak individuals, but ultimately, charity is going to dry up as resources get tighter. The vast majority of people who depend solely on begging will ultimately starve to death. (Unfortunately, most people will beg, barter, steal and kill, in that order. Even a single mother may cut your throat to save her children.)

PLANNING NOTE: In a total meltdown, the numbers will crush you if you let them. You have stored a finite amount of food, but there is an almost infinite number of beggars out there. Can you turn away a family with children who only want a bite to eat? You better think this out carefully and steel yourself for whatever you decide to do. If you give too many of your supplies away you will starve. If you turn everyone away, you may feel really bad. Think about it. How are your wife and kids going to react to begging? Watching a die-off is going to be tragic.

a. Bartering services. This could be prostitution or offering to act as security guard. This is actually a viable strategy for anyone with end-of-the-world useful skills. Find someone (or preferably a community) with food and sell yourself. If you have military training and equipment or specific skills, this could work. I don't expect all the doctors to starve.

b. Bartering goods. Rich people may try to buy basic supplies at scalper's prices. You might get a great deal on a Rolex or Mercedes.

2. Stealing/looting. This is a no-brainer once law enforcement breaks down. Even while there is some order, people are going to steal anything they can get their hands on, even at the risk of being hurt or killed. If we drop into anarchy, expect crowds of hungry people or "professional rioters" to sweep the city streets. As the public-access shops and warehouses begin to empty, crowds may move into residential areas for a while, but I don't expect this to last long. Big crowds will probably disband completely when resources become more scarce or they have to travel further to get to them. A warehouse of food or shopping center near the inner city may support this behavior, but a suburban neighborhood 10 miles away won't. Residential areas within cities may be in serious peril. The closer you are to densely populated areas and/or poor areas, the more peril you face. Once the big flash-crowds disappear or people start to forage in the suburbs,
small groups will splinter off and begin raiding (see item #5 below).

There will also be a lot of solitary (or small groups) burglars and sneak-thieves. If you keep chickens in your yard, watch your neighbors closely. If you plan to go to work and leave your house empty, it may be looted while you are away. Gasoline tanks without locks will be prime targets for night visitors. Suburban gardens are prime targets. This applies to slow-slide declines too.

Beggars can turn into looters quickly if nobody is watching. If nobody answers a door, they may try to break a window. The suburbs may be swamped with beggar/looters. As they get more desperate, looters will get bolder and more dangerous. The further out of town you live the safer you will be from this group. Of course, the more isolated you are, the more vulnerable you are to raiders.

3. Some people will sit tight and wait for things to somehow return to normal. Most people who have food and other resources will try to live on them and wait it out. If they stay in small family groups, they will be easy prey for mobs or raiders. Still, I expect most urbanites will do this until they are almost out of resources...then they will join the beggars and looters. This group will grow smaller every day and swell the numbers of looters.

4. Banding. Almost all people will band together for mutual protection and support. How well this works depends on many factors, but ultimately the only safety anywhere will be provided by numbers. Single survivors will get swallowed up quickly.

a. Banding by family unit. This is the basic family group and will be the the first and most common grouping. These groups are small in size but very cohesive. Most families will quickly band with other families into larger groups. The ones who don't will be easy prey.

b. Banding by geography. Neighborhoods will try to form bands for mutual protection. Neighborhoods will try to do this, but historically, this is often not very effective, especially if the distance between neighbors is large. Sharing of resources within neighborhood bands is spotty and as individuals run low, they tend to leave. Rural neighborhood watches are doomed by small numbers, and urban neighborhood watches are doomed from having too many people.

Populations of small towns will band together to put up road-blocks and keep from being overwhelmed. This is the only way most small communities will be able to survive, even if they are capable of supporting themselves by farming. Unless they band effectively and very quickly, they are doomed to be overrun by refugees or raiders. Even the communities who quickly band together may get soft hearted and let in too many people to support. I think pitiful refugees are more dangerous than raiders. It's a rare American who can watch genuine suffering and not try to help. This is especially dangerous if it looks as though the situation could improve and things go back to normal. If there is hope of getting help from outside the community, most people are inclined to save as many others as possible. I feel that this issue will doom many small communities.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If your plans include banding with a farming community, you must take steps immediately to close off the flow of refugees into the area. Convincing others to take steps this drastic will be hard or even impossible, especially early in a crisis. Closing your community and isolating it may very well be impossible. If it is, you are at the mercy of fate and geography. You had better have a plan-b.

c. Banding by profession. Cops, medical workers, emergency workers, soldiers, and perhaps factory workers may band with co-workers. You will especially see this behavior with professional military groups. Beware of military installations in a total breakdown! You have a lot of very young, very scared and highly trained young men with no families there. It might get very dangerous to be near a military town if the government totally disappears. (In a slow slide disaster or regional disaster Army Towns are perhaps the safest places to be, but once the chain of command disappears, watch out.)

d. Banding by religion. This is perhaps the easiest, most effective band to join, since the churches already congregate groups of like-minded people within a small area. Religious bands will probably be the basis for "small community group banding" and are usually the strongest bands possible to form on short notice. All the church groups in an area or a town will likely band together and put on the mantle of "local government". I anticipate local churches forming the backbone of most local governments. They will be equipped with arm bands and represent "legitimate" government when they come to loot your supplies. Joining one of these bands will be a good survival strategy for many people, but in a total collapse, they are very likely to keep as many people alive as possible until they run out of resources and then starve together. Expect to see local polities formed from church groups going to war as resources get scarce. They will go
after both looters and hoarders. Fascism in America will probably arrive carrying a cross.

e. Banding by racial or ethnic group. You will see racially or ethnically pure groups in some regions. This could be very important factor in places like Los Angeles or New York almost immediately and may take precedence over geography or religion. It's an ugly thought, but being the wrong color may be a death sentence some places. (Ironically, I don't expect any serious racial tension in the deep South.)

f. Banding by gang or club affiliation. Not only urban gangs and bikers, but also gun-clubs, country clubs, and survival groups fall into this category. Some clubs will obviously not band effectively in an emergency (like a yacht club for instance), but you can bet the Aryan Brotherhood will cleave together like real brothers. Your survival group, can form a strong group if you have like minds and have clear plans for how to band, where to meet etc.

(PLANNING NOTE: Unfortunately, you are very unlikely to be able to form a survival group large enough to defend yourselves. You may have more success joining your survival group with a local church group or community group or some other band to increase your numbers. The only way you will be able to do that is to store enough food. Plan this out carefully. How big is your optimum band size and how will you feed everyone? Remember, you can use the same tactics other groups will use....like confiscation of warehouses, if your numbers are large enough and you are quick enough. But, If your ultimate size gets too large it will become unwieldy and impossible to control or feed. This is a conundrum you need to give some thought to now.)

Consider this topic well because your group belief system will vary depending on how you form the group and who you let in. A church group will have to use different tactics than a biker club or a neighborhood watch. This will limit or shape your options and set the tone of everything you do. No church group is going to seriously consider cannibalism, for instance.

5. Raiding/Banditry. Raider bands are going to spring up everywhere. Some will start as low level looters and graduate into larger scale violence. Some, however will start out as systematic raiders. There are some very bad perpetrators out there and there will be even more once the prisons empty. In the short term, violence will be very lucrative.

Raiders will take casualties over time. They will also replenish their numbers somewhat, but fortunately these are mostly anti-social types and may have trouble integrating new members. The further you are from them at the start, the safer you will be, but they can hit you anywhere, anytime. I don't see a good solution for this other than sheer numbers or good OPSEC. They won't attack an obviously hard target. and of course, they can't attack what they don't know about. They have to win to stay in business, so they won't attack unless they feel they can win. Distance will spread out the number of groups and allow other survivors to thin their numbers in numerous gun battles. True raiders may not last long, but they are going to be a real problem in the short term.

I expect raiding to take two main forms. The roadside ambush and the home invasion. Home invasions are always dangerous and often brutal. If the raiders attack your home, they will try to take you by surprise and kill every combatant in the house before anyone can react. They will force every more at a very fast pace to prevent you from reacting. They may use some kind of distraction or disguise to gain surprise. Home invasion, carried out with professionalism and gusto is fairly
safe and easier than you would think. Expect to see some of them wearing body armor, dressed in police uniforms and carrying
badges. (Some of them will have professional entry training...like SWAT and military). Failing at a stack entry, they may use CS gas to drive out the occupants. Failing that, they will use fire.

Waylaying travelers on the roads is very easy and safe. Cars are just too vulnerable to gunfire. The roads outside small communities could be very dangerous to travel.

Don't ever underestimate the vile depravity of human beings. Anarchy is the dirtiest word in the English language. Rape and torture may be common. I believe as food gets harder to find, many people will turn to cannibalism to sustain themselves. (I wish this were not true, but historically, it's very common.) I am not advocating cannibalism in any way, but In all fairness, cannibalism can greatly extend a group's supply base. There are a whole lot of people out there and people are made of meat. While easy targets are available, some groups may prosper for some months eating human flesh. It could be a fairly successful strategy for some groups. Beware. History of other collapses warns us that this may be common.

A longer term problem you should watch for is what I call "part time raiders". Historically, most raids have been conducted by young men in one community raiding a nearby community. This phenomenon won't happen overnight in most places but it will probably happen eventually unless somebody forms a central authority within a year or two.

6. Extortion. Outlaw bands will give way to professional armies in some places. Possibly with a core of military trained personnel, a hundred or more killers traveling together can extort more than smaller groups can steal. These groups will get larger as time goes by but they are doomed unless they can take over someone else s farmland and extort "taxes". You may see groups like this move in to agricultural areas and set up shadow governments, taxing all the farmers nearby...or selling protection. Anyone who doesn't play ball will be burned out. Expect them to use classic tactics like assassination, kidnapping, and terrorism to cow the locals. Local governments are going to probably hire many thugs and enforcers too. Telling the good guys from the bad guys might get difficult. Anyone trying to take your food is probably a bad guy, but it might be worth your while to pay him off.

7. Hiding. Some people are going to try to hide from the die-off.
Hiding inside a city or suburbs (in my opinion) is not going to work. People are going to systematically search every building for food. You could conceivably scare off or outfight wave after wave of looters and finally be looted by a local government or burned out by a large gang or rioters. The fact that you are living there will be impossible to hide when they try to search your building, If you are there, you will eventually have to fight or surrender your supplies. Hiding in the suburbs is just not possible and staying in an apartment building (even if you band with the other occupants for mutual protection) will eventually get you killed.

Hiding in a rural area is possible, just because of the distances involved. The number of hungry mouths will be less in the country, but local citizens are still going to confiscate your "Hoarded" food if they need it. Your best hiding place is in an area that will be defended by well-fed people. (but if you have a well-fed community defending you, you should really help them defend it, don't you think?)

The second best hiding place is a wilderness area with no roads or natural resources that someone will want. A wilderness hide site takes a lot of skills to pull off. Also, it is not sustainable without some planning and a lot of discipline. Essentially, this is hunkering down in a remote place and eating supplies you brought with you while you wait patiently for the teeming masses to die off. Living quietly in the wilderness, mostly underground is a hard way to live, especially in bad weather, but it could be your best chance to miss the die-off if you are healthy and have a solid set of outdoor tactical skills.

8. Bug out (presumably to a safe place).
This is going to be very popular, even for people who have no place to go. Once the power is off and the sewage starts backing up, the cities are going to start losing people. The exodus may begin immediately or be delayed several days (depending on the scenario). Either way, the refugees will generally try to leave in family groups. They will mostly follow interstates, highways, state roads, and farm roads, in that order. Nobody (almost nobody) is going to just start walking in a random direction and go cross country. They will drive until they have to walk and try to re-supply along the way.

While there is order, the roads may be jammed with cars leaving the cities going nowhere. In practice, almost everyone is going to be driving out of the city with a definite destination in mind. Some relative, some small town they know of, etc. Most of these destinations are going to be just as bad as the ones they just left, but these will be desperate people. Many of them are going to seriously overestimate their vehicle range. (Traffic jams eat a lot of fuel, probably more than most people will plan for).

Most of those thousands of cars on the interstate are going to run out of gasoline in a matter of hours and wherever they finally run out, that's where the occupants are going to start walking. Of course most of them are going to pull off the highways and interstates just before they run out and mob every town along the highway. (This is a historic fact, proven by every hurricane evacuation we have ever attempted). I expect people to turn very nasty when they run out of fuel. When they cannot buy fuel or food, the towns along America's highways will be filled with armed, hungry desperate people who may kill for a gallon of gas or a drink of water. Sound like fantasy? Don't bet on it. It's happened even during regional crisis with help on the way. In a general meltdown, I expect lots of violence in small towns and strip communities along highways and especially interstates.

There may be long columns of desperate refugees walking the interstates, but I don't foresee this. Most people will congregate in towns along the route. It's difficult to predict what desperate people will do without knowing local variables. If there is a hopeful destination within perceived walking distance, I would expect a lot of foot traffic. Of course, there will be a large number of breakdowns, but probably no mass migrations on foot unless they are being chased by something like a fire or chemical spill etc.

PLANNING NOTE: If you wait too long to G.O.O.D. you won't make it. I believe G.O.O.D. movement of any kind is going to be very dangerous. Moving vehicles are just too vulnerable, and there are going to be a lot of desperate, armed people stranded on the roads. This specifically includes law enforcement. They are not going to let you drive by with a load of gas cans in the back when their patrol car is sitting empty. Get out early or don't try it.

9. Going on with your life and ignoring the crisis.
I think this will be a very popular early response. Some people will still try to make it to work, just like they always have. Until the crisis really gets bad, you will probably see shopkeepers, lawyers, bankers etc trying to commute to work. I really hope the police and firemen do this for as long as possible--and garbage collectors and power workers too! In fact, this is probably our best defense against a general melt-down. If everyone would stay calm and keep trying to make the system work, our society could survive almost anything. (I am betting on the exact opposite).

10. LaMOE (LAst Man On Earth) of the wilderness.
Some people will grab their outdoors gear and head for the woods planning to live out of a rucksack and forage or hunt for their food. I include fishermen in this category. I expect the wilderness areas to be absolutely stiff with "sportsmen" who are going to try to camp their way out of trouble. Maybe not, but I have heard a lot of people talk about it. This is a losing proposition, but that's not obvious to everyone.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If you attempt to hide in a wilderness location, you are going to have to avoid these knuckleheads. Choose your hide site well.

11. Throw yourself on the mercy of the government.
Another VERY popular option. America has become the land of the entitlement. This generation seems to believe the government is there to take care of them from cradle to grave. I expect lots of folks to gather around anything even remotely resembling government. This will only last while government offices are open, but it might allow formation of groups or bands that will later loot and burn the city.

12. Go nuts and start burning everything in sight. It's happened before and will probably happen again. For some reason, arson seems to be some kind of release mechanism for unstable personalities. These folks are yet another reason to avoid urban areas. They won't last long, but they can cause a lot of damage in the short term.

13. Something else. This is only a partial list of all the possible strategies people will use. If you can think of something, expect someone to try it. Look at your local variables and think about it.

EXPECTED SEQUENCE:
Tricky, but in general terms, I expect urbanites to hang onto their city as long as supplies hold out and then attempt a bug-out. Some, of course, are going to bug out almost immediately. Some will never bug out.

Most people are going to sit tight until they get hungry and then either attempt a bug-out or try to barter/beg/or loot food.
Looters will start looting as soon as they can get away with it. Their numbers will be fairly small in the beginning, but will grow as more people get hungry. They will continue until there is nothing to loot...then they will have to change strategies. The next strategy up the scale is raiding.

Most people will never make that transition to violence, but I estimate up to 5% of the total population will easily make that transition and another 10% are capable of doing it if they have more time to get used to the idea (and get hungry). These numbers are not really supportable historically, but I feel that they are very close to reality...just personal opinion. If I am right, that means even a city of 100,000 people could produce 5,000 potential murderers in a few days. That's a lot of bad guys.

Raiders, bandits and bad guys are going to prey on the weak until somebody establishes order or they run out of easy targets. This order will probably be in the form of locally formed polities (local governments and committees, neighborhood watches, and church groups.) Once we reestablish real order, most remaining raiders are going to try to change strategies. Some of them may join your church.

Unfortunately, the horrible die-off will encompass multiple years. It won't end until local communities reach equilibrium and produce as much food as they consume. That could easily take more than two years. (The first harvest after a major crisis is going to be a disappointing time for some communities.) Some of the starving polities (probably after the first harvest) may choose war over starvation and attack neighbors. Sounds really grim, but I call em like I see em.

Livestock mortality the first two years is going to be astronomical. People are going to have to literally allow other humans to die while they feed livestock. Also, they are going to be very valuable commodities and prone to theft.

Wildlife and fish mortality will also be very high. Everybody who sees a deer will attempt to kill it. After a year or two, I expect deer, bear and wild hogs to be nearly extinct in the Eastern US. Small game will also suffer huge losses to poaching and so will fish.

SO, WHAT STRATEGY DO I PLAN TO USE?
I live in a nice suburban neighborhood of a small town within 45 minutes of a large urban area. The area surrounding us is a poor rural agricultural area in Southern Georgia. My town is near a secondary line of drift from Savannah. Not the worst place to live, but not good either. In a slow slide scenario, I will stay in place, participate in the neighborhood watch and go to work every day. I even have plans to set up a soup kitchen, field bakery and water purification plant at a local church if needed. My plan is to make myself valuable to the community. If things get really bad, I have the ability to arm up to 6 others. I have enough spare stored food, equipment and weapons to do this and still be postured for plan-B.

Plan-B. In the event of a TEOTWAWKI I intend to use several options. I intend to Bug out with a truck-load of supplies to a pre-selected wilderness area (within 15 minute ride of home), establish a hide site and wait out the carnage. (I have about seven months supplies for my family plus a couple of caches with extra food and weapons nearby for a total of roughly nine months of rough living. I believe our odds of remaining unnoticed for six or more months are very good while maintaining a fairly high standard of living. (Living this close to Savannah, this is the best plan I could come up with).

Why hide out? first, I have the skills, equipment and a good area. But mostly, I know myself. Having seen real hunger in Africa and the Balkans, I don't believe I have the emotional hardness to watch people suffer and die without joining them by trying to help. Hiding out and missing the die-off will be hard, but watching it happen (for me) is just impossible. I can't watch.

When things cool down, I will scout the area and attempt to barter my skills to local farmers or whoever is in power. (I have acquired quite a few barterable skills over the years). So, if I show up at your retreat door six months after a collapse looking for work: don't shoot! It's just me! - JIR

I live in the suburbs of our nation’s capitol and of course I want to keep myself and family safe, so I have taken steps to mitigate and eliminate the dangers of my area. My challenge for a while was getting my new bride on-board with my preparations. She thought my supplies, guns and gear were “weird” and she chalked it up to my military experience and largely ignored it. If anyone else has a similar problem getting buy-in on prepping from their partners they may find this useful, it sure works better than arguing.

As Mr. Miyagi said in the Karate Kid 2 “Best way to block a punch is not be there.” Your advice to move and live in a rural setting is sound, but not practical for many people, so I do have the next best thing in a retreat on some family owned land. It is occupied by some older and retired family, so my preparations there both include and are guarded by them. I make a point to drive there and back by as many different routes as I can divine from a map reconnaissance that do not include the interstate highways. It takes more time, but it keeps us familiar with the routes and we notice any changes (Like a bridge that was getting rather rickety) that may influence our route choice if we need to G.O.O.D. She thought this was a weird way to travel, but I convinced her to go along with promises of new scenery, hidden treasures (Like a wonderful greasy spoon off the beaten track) and a more relaxed setting. I taught her how to read a military grid map and use a compass for “fun” demonstrating my old and valuable military skills. After she had been on all the routes though, she wanted to do the interstate to save time, but I knew traffic in our area is some of the worst in the country and decided to take advantage. On a holiday weekend, prime time we set out to follow the herd. It went exactly as I expected; a normal disaster. There was bumper to bumper stop and go traffic for hours. I let her drive this time and when the frustration set in, I threw in a “what if” scenario at her where a disaster had even more people trying to flee. There have been events in recent memory where people abandon their cars on the road and take flight on foot –however ill prepared they are to do so. She saw what I meant and recognized the value of both her new map reading skills and knowledge of the back roads. My back routes are no magic bullet, the Interstate was still faster, but the images I put in her head made her a bit less skeptical about my “weird” travel routines.

I visit there often, and take interest in the workings of the semi-retired farm. My wife loves it there, but thinks it strange I care so much about taking care of the place, like the time I was on-hand to help retrofit the windmill to make electricity once the water tower was full, or why we keep the grain silos in good shape even without a lot of livestock. We have a garden there, but a small one for now since my family isn’t really up to tending a large one. There are a few chickens and goats which are almost pets at this point but can certainly be put to real use if need be. The pond is stocked with fish and the woods give us a steady supply of firewood and game (But we don’t hunt much –yet.) A few weekends of sleeping in the quiet of the country and waking up to farm fresh eggs, bacon and sausage from a neighboring farm and fresh bread coming from the “weird” grain mill has her more excited about eating there than at the fancy restaurants around DC. We cook stews and barbeque outdoors, drink fresh water from the spring and pick though the garden for fresh vegetables. She learned some “weird” skills about canning and drying foods for storage from my aunt. Once we were married, I even let her into the secret back barn room that holds a family relic, which let’s just say has produced good cheer for over a hundred years. The “weird” country life became a vacation for her. I would like to live there full-time, but with the relic only producing good cheer and not cash like it used to (Too risky now!) I keep my city job.

She works in a government office building and a few times they have been locked down for potential outside threats –seems to be a normal disaster lately. Every time has luckily turned out to be nothing but it has put the thought of terrorism in the front of her mind. I pointed out to her a real emergency could last more than a day and the office vending machines wouldn’t keep everyone sustained for long. She then agreed to store some food and water –but nothing else I suggested in her office. After her office was issued and trained on some cheap disposable gas masks and she saw people making light of the flimsy things she realized the masks and extra filters I had in my office, car and home were not so “weird”. Sure enough she finally took the “prep” bags and all of their goodies I had made for her to her car and office.

One summer we got hit with a string of bad thunderstorms which had an uncanny ability to knock out our power for hours. This normal disaster gave me the chance to show her my generator and solar powered gear was not so “weird”. My generator kept the fridge/freezer cold, the sump pump going, the air conditioner cooling and even our computer & internet connection going. My travel solar setup kept our cell phones & “weird” 2 way radios charged as well as ran a radio to bring us news and entertainment. It rained so hard and so much the check valve on our sewer was forced to close, eliminating our ability to use the plumbing for a few hours. It didn’t last long enough to bother us, but my portable toilet and old army sanitation manual about latrines were no longer “weird”.

That same summer we were attending a barbeque at a neighbor’s when another normal disaster struck; my neighbor’s one propane tank went empty. She thought my overstock of these was “weird” until that day when I casually plucked one from my storage and loaned it to the neighbor –with still plenty to use for my own house.

Last fall some friends of ours walked in on a burglar robbing their home. The man had grabbed a kitchen knife and threatened them as he made his escape out the back door. Luckily our friends were not hurt, and my friends were suddenly asking me questions about home defense. I have an alarm system, two watch dogs, a safe for my guns and valuables and a concealed carry permit for the pistol I always have on me. My wife was already on board with the alarm system, just thought I was “weird” for training watch dogs, disliked my insistence she lock up her good jewelry in the safe and didn’t care for me carrying a gun much –until my friends had their encounter with crime. I bought her a pistol, taught her how to use it and sent her to a class to get her own permit. She now goes with me to the range and I have also taught her how to shoot my AR-15, Benelli M4, Benelli Super Black Eagle and Remington 700. She now knows at least how to shoot to defend herself and maybe get a meal. She came to her own realization that guns were like women’s shoes –different ones are required for every occasion. So our arsenal here and at our retreat isn’t “weird” anymore.

The first hard freeze of winter made another normal disaster when a water main in our area broke and the utility advised everyone boil their water for a day before drinking it. My “weird” supply of bottled water suddenly came in handy. I told my wife that my “weird” water filter, rain buckets, five gallon pails with lids and sturdy cart could all be used to supply us with safe and clean water from rain, pools and nearby stream if things lasted longer than our bottled water.

This winter afforded another teaching moment when we got sucker punched with 28” of snow. (That’s a lot for here). I drove her by the big box store and grocery stores, and pointed out the throngs of people scrambling to lay in supplies they should have already had. One store was out of milk, another was rationing eggs to be “fair”. Again I planted the seed of what would be happening in a real emergency. My “weird” hunker down supplies of food and other goods became less strange.

We were well prepared with quality snow shovels, ice scrapers and multiple 50 lb. bags of salt to dig out. I also have a “weird” large supply of firewood and kerosene heaters stored in the attic. She actually remarked about how secure she felt knowing we wouldn’t freeze even if the power went out for longer than my “weird” generator and fuel would last. For fun once we had dug out I took her to some home improvement stores and pointed out the empty shelves where these items had been a day before, and the desperate people searching for goods that simply were not there. She commented how everything in our area got “picked over” because of the large population here, so suddenly the seasonal shortages of Halloween Candy and Christmas decorations took on a more sinister quality for her.

These “normal disasters” as I like to call them serve as warnings and training opportunities I think she has finally gotten the message, and now she makes some choices that surprise me, like a large supply of feminine hygiene products that has showed up here and at the retreat. She was a fan of the famous money advisor, Dave Ramsey, before prepping and has correctly drawn corollaries from his advice –“Live like no-one else so you can live like no-one else.” 

The recent post regarding the found well inspired me to write a note that I’ve been meaning to share.
I work in the water well industry, specifically the troubleshooting of problem wells.  The thing that continues to surprise me is the wide range of beliefs and lack of solid information on well systems. I say systems because an owner/operator must view a well as a sum of parts, more than just a hole in the ground.

The first issue I’ll address is testing. Most states and local health departments have settled on the coliform test as the only means to pass judgment on a well. This is a big error in my opinion. This test is often misrepresented as a “Bac-T” test and is assumed to include all bacteria by professionals and laymen alike. Coliforms are one family of organisms and include everything from E.coli related bacteria to naturally occurring soil bacteria. Bacteria are found everywhere, and it is impossible to find a well that does not have resident bacterial populations, no matter how deep or where it is located. If a test has been performed or is required, find out what type of test and results you will get. You want more than just a presence/absence, you want to know what is there and how many. There are a variety of online sources that you can then read up on the identified bacteria and find out if it is a problem or not.

The second issue is well head protection. This has become more popular in recent times, but the effort is focused mainly on larger well systems. In my opinion, it is more important for the residential or “back-yard well owner” as they do not have the treatment systems in place nor the mandatory testing requirements. So, for the SB readers, I recommend:

1. Examine the well and area around the well head. Identify any conduits or drainage that may impact the well or the area adjacent to the well. If there is any area of erosion or subsidence (ground collapse), seal with Bentonite (well seal or well plug) and back-fill the area. Manage the drainage in the area so that no flow impacts the well or settles near the well.  If you have a “well house” – examine it for leaks and possible rodent use. Clean it out and check it regularly. If you have a concrete well “pad”, make sure it is not being compromised or that erosion is occurring underneath it.  You may need to stabilize and manage drainage around it too.
2. Collect information. Now that you’ve addressed the topside, scour all possible records for well data. This may be very difficult – if you cannot find information on the well, contact a driller or pump installer and schedule a visit. You want to know the age and dimensions of your well (depth, diameter), the type of completion (steel, pvc, screen, or open borehole), static and operating water level; type, age, and efficiency of the pump. Knowledge is key! Why? All means of operating, cleaning or disinfecting the well are dependent on the size of the well!

One note, for those with “hand-dug” wells, you may want to consider lining or replacing the well. These types of wells are often natural cisterns or collector wells and can have infiltration issues that may cause more problems than good.
The next issue we tend to deal with is fouling. Fouling occurs as a number of issues – it can be bacterial presence, hard scale build-up, the accumulation of sediment, or a combination of each of these issues. Fouling in a filter or pressure tank may reflect greater problems downhole. More often than not, the problems occur do to the inactiveness of the well. 

1. Keep the Well Active! Bacteria, present in biofilm and biomass generally contract during periods of flow in and around a well system. As the flow decreases, the biofilm expands as the need for nutrient capture grows. During expansion of biofilm, populations also swell. Bacteria are most active in stagnant water situations, as they seek to capture necessary for growth and propagation. Similarly, as the flow of a well system decreases, the entrance and influence of oxygen on the system decreases. This can lead to more anoxic or anaerobic environments to occur. As anaerobic conditions develop, the growth and development of anaerobic bacterial populations increase. Anaerobic bacteria are often the more troublesome bacteria. First, they typically include sulfate reducing bacteria that can impart a “rotten egg” or hydrogen sulfide type odor on produce water. Second, the biofilm produced by these bacteria is typically more dense and problematic with regards to fouling potential. Lastly, many Coliform bacteria are facultative anaerobes and take up residence in anaerobic environments. In some cases, water sitting idle for only a couple of hours in the well can become ripe with bacteria and cause significant plugging to occur within the well. In addition to restricting anaerobic growth, operational wells continually purge debris from the system, preventing accumulations from occurring within the borehole. Hardness loss and geochemical congestion are also limited in active well systems. Corrosion, resulting from over pumping and a variety of factors, can be reduced as well.  I understand that many use wells as back-ups or for emergency needs. You need to investigate methods of cycling the well – even if for just a limited time. There are a variety of timers and triggers that can be used. Solar powered systems and floats can be very beneficial in maintaining effective storage while also regularly exercising the well.
2. Treating the Well. If and when it comes time to have the well cleaned or disinfected, take the time to do it right. The number one issue we find in failed well cleanings is the failure to evacuate the bottom of the well. The bottom of the well acts as a sump, often collecting sediment as well as organic debris. As mentioned above, this can plague a well and also reduce the effectiveness of cleaning efforts. Additionally, have the contractor find out what the problem is and design a specific treatment, don’t just have them do what they normally do to any well…each well is different! If chlorination is deemed necessary for disinfection, use a concentration of fresh, liquid sodium hypochlorite (to reduce the influence of calcium) between 100 and 400 ppm. Never “shock” chlorinate a well with concentrations of chlorine over 500ppm! Also, buffer the solution to a pH of 6.5 to 7 – this will maximize the effectiveness of disinfection that is often reduced by the DOT required shipping pH of 9 to 11 of chlorine.

So many people treat wells as just another object, assuming that when the time comes, it will be there and ready to use. Nowadays, with costs increasing and some states limiting the drilling of wells, vigilance is more important than ever. Treat your well as an asset – possibly your most precious asset. Check your well periodically for corrosion, increased air, foul odors or discoloration. If possible, purchase a test kit and track the quality of your water. Each of these can be a sign of trouble downhole. Identifying problems early is often cheaper to respond to and you have a greater chance of success. I also recommend that you contact your local extension office or county sanitarian; periodically these agencies may offer workshops regarding wells and private water supplies.

One subject I've not seen mentioned recently is that of data recovery and security. As a proponent of various disaster recovery plans for large companies during my tenure as in information technology auditor I'd like to propose a few ideas to the readers to increase the chances of keeping data post-TEOTWAWKI. No one plan works for everyone and your mileage may vary.

First off we all generate lots more data then we think. The most common insurance against loss of a home PC is regularly maintained backups to some form of storable media like DVD-r’s. However, in a post-TEOTWAWKI world we might not be able to count on having functional hardware to restore to on the other side of the crisis. The decision to attempt to maintain digital data must first be made. Assembling your family photos and all of the documents will most likely result in a heavy cumbersome item to store and/or move. Printing the entire 2009 year of this very blog results in quite a stack of paper. Keeping a for each monthly archive results in 12 megabytes of data - a very tiny amount to manage when we think of data in terms of gigabytes. Indeed assuming the same amount of content, about 66 years of monthly printouts of survival blog can fit on one CD-ROM, about 400 years on a single DVD-R.

Maintaining a digital store of data of your records, photos, videos and other media has its ups and downs. On the plus side you can store an enormous volume of material (you can even scan your entire paper file) on a small device such as a laptop or external drive. These items are fairly easy to grab and go - and they can be copied for redundancy to fairly inexpensive devices for backup purposes. The downside is that power is required, they are vulnerable to EMP, and in the event of total loss you don’t have a scrap of paper to rely upon. Even after scanning your papers to digital format, be sure to keep the most critical papers ready to go alongside your backup drive. It’s a big decision, however in my case I keep so much data that I’m going all out to preserve as much as possible. Ill lay out my strategy at the end of this article.

Supplying power is the key to using any digitally stored material post TEOTWWAKI. Laptops can require 10x less power than a typical desktop model. In my home office I use a desktop, but I frequently transfer all of the data to my laptop machine. That way I can grab my laptop and go if need be. Readers of Patriots may recall the use of a notebook for movie night years after the crunch. A solar charger and small inverter (175 watts or so) is generally sufficient to power a laptop with its 110/220 adapter. The prescient purchase of a 12 volt car charger for your laptop will save the inherent loss of running an inverter to step up to 120 VAC merely to convert it back down to around 12-14 volts DC. [JWR Adds: I agree! As I've previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, a DC to DC adapter is far more efficient than a DC-to-AC-to-DC solution, with an inverter! Ditto for simple battery charging of NiMH AA, C, D, and 9 VDC batteries! For those, use a DC-to-DC charging tray, available for RV accessory dealers, such as Camping World.]

Another machine type to consider is a Mini PC or Book PC – these are available – and quite small for a grab and go situation. They require a keyboard, mouse and display but otherwise are self contained. Personally I prefer a laptop but there are some other choices out there.

Battery life and survivability is reasonably good with modern laptop batteries. Their life can be prolonged in several ways. First off they generally hold three to five hundred cycles of charge and discharge. They do not suffer the 'memory effect' of prior types of NiMh and NiCd batteries. See this site for more information on prolonging Lithium type batteries. That said, the cell will last longer if it is not cycled very often. If at all possible, run the laptop from its power adapter and use the battery only once or twice a month. In this way you should be able to get more years of service. Spare batteries can be purchased as well.

Hardware survivability is the other key. Unless you have deep pockets, buying multiple notebooks for redundancy is out of the question. I'd rather have a backup M1A then a spare laptop any day of the week. That said there are certain parts you can purchase that greatly increase your chances. Whatever machine you have, acquire a spare hard disk drive. These are now so small and cheap and readily available on ebay. Note that spare internal hard drives for laptops differ from external USB drives. There are great advantages to having both spare internal hard disks for your laptop as well as a few external drives. Another consideration can be the new solid state hard disks which are less prone to failure with no moving parts.

Step one is a data inventory. Bear in mind that I use a desktop PC and transfer a copy of the data to my laptop frequently. In my case I am very diligent about storing every file in the My Documents folder. By right clicking on the “my documents” folder, and then clicking the 'general' tab, windows will tally up the count of files and give you their total size. In my case, 193 GB

The next step is to make backups. With some quick and dirty math I know that it is quite a chore to burn these to the 41 (193GB / 4.7GB per DVD) but every four months I do so, anyway.. There are many other strategies but this works for me. Other folks like to burn only the data since the last backup. (Do a web search on “incremental backup” for more information.)) These are stored in a CD wallet and placed with my backup materials. I rely on these in the event that hardware and backup drives are all a total loss, and will recover the data after the crisis ebbs. After sizing the "my documents" folder and any other data folders I want, i plug in an external hard drive ( in my case a 1TB free agent drive which cost about $99 ) and before going to sleep, I drag and drop the files to copy on to it. By morning the copy is complete. This is done weekly in my case. I can tolerate the loss of one week of data but no more. Finally, after the copy is complete, I delete the prior documents on my laptop. (Be careful – if you use the laptop to change a file you must save it to another location or risk it’s loss) , and copy the fresh full backup I just made from the external hard drive to the folder on the laptop, which takes several hours and should be done at night.

What I end up with is my desktop PC with all of its data. I do my work here. I also have an external drive ready to go with the most up to date data, and a laptop already loaded with the same information, ready to grab and go at a moment’s notice. Or in the event of extended power failure, while sheltering at home, I can power up the laptop using my small solar charger to use the information stored there. Finally I have a CD Wallet that has most of the data if no hardware is working. Lots of redundancy.

For more advanced users, or those who like to learn and are fearless to experiment, I highly recommend the Linux world. Go to Ubuntu.com and download the latest disc image and burn it to a CD-ROM. You end up with a bootable CD-ROM that loads linux instead of windows (and can be toyed with without making changes to your PC if you just want to poke around.) That has many technical capabilities that exceed the scope of this writing. Many distributions of linux can support booting from a USB Jump Drive – with the ability to see the hard drive in the machine. Since the hard drive has the moving parts it is most prone to failure. One Linux strategy that I employ is having a USB Jump drive bootable to linux and DVD backups of my most critical data. Truly the top 1,000 of my most favorite family photos, and scans of my most important works all fit on a single DVD-ROM. Using that strategy I can boot Linux from the USB Jump Drive and see my most crucial stored data on DVD-R’s without the use of any hard drive. Not one moving part to break.

Everyone should consider developing some strategy. I find the idea of a functioning computer loaded with survival information, literature, my personal information, family photos and archives and other critical data a comfortable thought for TEOTWAWKI. It is also a great item for entertainment, and hopefully after the crisis I can assist others in recovering their digital lives.

James,
I have been reading a lot of the archive items and I have noticed a few times where you went on a trip etc, we have had a few nieces and nephews born this year and when I travel 3 to 4 hours from home I don’t feel as secure as when I am close to my home and supplies so when you venture out for a few days the questions that pop into my mind are:

• What kind of vehicle do you travel long distances in?
• What supplies do you stock in it?
• What are some things we could keep in mind as we travel away from our homes for short periods?

I tried to search for these answers, so forgive me if you have already covered it and I missed it. Thanks, - Larry M.

JWR Replies: Vehicle and gear selection have been discussed in SurvivalBlog since 2005, but not much in the past year, so this subject is worth re-visiting.

A "Get Out of Dodge" vehicle need not be large, if you've planned ahead and pre-positioned the majority of your gear and grub at your retreat.

My personal circumstances are unusual, since I live at my retreat year-round. So the gear that I keep in my vehicle is more of a "Get Me Back Home Kit" rather than a "Get Out of Dodge Kit". And since I live in a remote and lightly populated region that is mostly public lands, many of my readiness items I carry are for severe weather, fallen trees, or off-road driving mishaps. So, for example, I regularly carry a parka, Wiggy's brand FTRSS sleeping bag, wool blanket, fire starting kit, two tow chains, a come-along, a shovel, and an axe. There have been times that I wished that I also had a chainsaw on board, but storage space is a constraint. (An axe will suffice in most instances, but it is much more labor intensive.) Thankfully, the majority of this gear--most notably the tow chain--has been used several times to assist other motorists, rather than myself or members of my family. Most of these have been nature photographers and dude hunters that have got themselves in over their heads, back on BLM and Forest Service roads. Depending on the season, I also carry varying quantities of cold weather clothing, and tire chains. (Yes, there are circumstances in the spring "mud season" when studded snow tires are insufficient!) When I take longer highway trips outside of my neck of the woods, I often substitute full-up "get me home" backpacks for the weight and space normally that is occupied by the tow chains and pioneer tools.

Our primary vehicle is a well-maintained Flex Fuel (E85 ethanol compatible) Ford SUV, circa 2002. It is in fairly "stock" configuration, but here in my region, one common modification is the addition of an extra heavy duty brush guard. These aren't designed to deflect brush, but rather deer. (Deer collisions are by far the most common road hazards here.) You even see some passenger cars equipped with these "deer catchers" . They look rather comical on the front of a four-door sedan.

Even though I live outside of any anticipated EMP footprints, I carry spare electronic ignition and fuel system components, wrapped in multiple layers of aluminum foil, and stowed in a Danish cookie tin.

Since several members of our family are licensed radio amateurs, we carry either 2 Meter or 440 MHz (70 cm) transceivers in our vehicles. (We have both vehicular and hand-held models, mostly older model Kenwoods.) Diamond makes high-quality dual-band and tri-band magnetic mount vehicular antennas. For short range communication, we use MURS band walkie-talkies--which require no license--that are typically tuned to the same frequency of our Dakota Alert alarms.

As a member of the Armed Forces stationed overseas, and for those civilian government employees likewise stationed, we face unique situations as we attempt to get ready for TEOTWAWKI scenarios. First, when you are stationed overseas, usually for a 12 to 36 month tour, whatever happens back home seems magnified in your mind because you are so far away and feel helpless to do anything about it. Mental preparation is of utmost importance if you get a sense of panic after reading about all the horrible things going on back home.  It is important not to panic when you see special sales for prepper items on the blog as this leads to impulse buying and frustration if the vendor does not ship to FPO/APO addresses. I think we tend to go into panic mode because in the military exchanges and commissaries overseas, it is common to run out of a given item and it may take months if ever to get restocked.  I am a mental health professional and just as I would counsel my clients, I suggest to my fellow military bloggers, the first thing I would advise is read as much as possible, take a deep breath, and realize that you are limited in what you can do.

The second piece of advice is, ask God to open your eyes to what you can do.  There are a lot of things we can do that give us unique advantages over our stateside friends.  What country are you in?  Get out and see the local surroundings.  You will have unique shopping opportunities so see what that country is known for producing and see how cheaply you can get it there.  Remember, whatever is not contraband gets shipped back to the States when you leave at Uncle Sugar’s expense.  (Check out the local Costco or Wal-Mart as their inventory likely will stock things particular to that country that you can’t readily purchase as inexpensively back in the States.  What things do the local nationals do that strike you as odd or weird?  I have found that much of what initially appears ‘weird’ actually makes good sense.  For example, in many Asian countries the custom of removing one’s shoes upon entering a house may strike American’s as strange but upon second glance, this practice makes a world of sense.  Imagine being limited in terms of medical care and trying to control the spread of disease.  Now imagine where you walk everyday and what you pick up on your shoes – everything from doggie doo to spittle and worse.  Now imagine what you’re bringing into and spreading throughout your home with those shoes.  Enough said!  For every custom you observe your host nation practice that leaves you scratching your head, ask “why” and you would be amazed at how much you can learn.  In particular, since most countries don’t have the same amount of stuff to waste and space to store their stuff, they live frugally compared to our standards and if you observe long enough you walk away with a wealth of knowledge and innovative ways to do things.

What is offered at your base?  Many of us, even if we don’t carry weapons have the opportunity to go to qualify on a weapon, and for free.  Each service probably has its own point of contact – for my base it’s the Security Chief.  Most overseas locations have a very active Morale Welfare and Recreation (MWR) program which offers everything from tours and trips to the practical such as Auto Hobby and Wood Hobby Shops which allow you to develop automotive and wood working skills for free to very cheap. The Family Service Centers normally offer free to very cheap classes on budgeting, child care, local culture, retirement preparation, to name a few.   Additionally, the base is the place to look for unique bargains.  Most bases both in the States and overseas have a local thrift shop that carry items at bargain basement prices and make Goodwill prices look like Nordstrom’s.  What courses does the base hospital or clinic offer?  There are generally health promotions courses going on that focus on particular diseases, CPR, etc.  Also, contact Military One Source for tons of free information and literature.  It is a clearinghouse and referral source for military beneficiaries.

Now for the challenging part – what do you do about making purchases from back in the States and where do you store them?  First, when you see something you’d like to order, decrease your frustration by going to the company’s drop down boxes to see if there is even a listing for FPO/APO addresses in both the “Billing” address and “Ship To” sections.  If there is none, don’t waste your time trying to order online.  E-mail or call the company and explain your situation.  For example, I have a great relationship with Shelf Reliance and Arbogast.  While they have no FPO/APO drop down box and there is a time difference of almost a day, when I receive Shelf Reliance’s sales notices I shoot them an e-mail (they’ve given me a particular customer service representative whom I deal with exclusively) listing the items I wish to buy and then call in my credit card number during their working hours.  Some items cannot be shipped by a company to an FPO/APO address because of import/export laws (i.e. certain electronics cannot be shipped from say Radio Shack to an FPO address, it can however be shipped to a friend in the States and they can mail it to you with no problem).  Other items cannot be shipped to such addresses period (that may include food items), so it is important to check with your post office and find out what can and cannot be shipped.  Also, find out from the Household Goods office what items would be considered contraband to ship back to the U.S. in your household goods shipment.  Get educated before you spend your hard earned cash and have to leave your purchases behind.

Is there someone you can ship your order to back in the States and who is willing to store what you ordered until you return to the states?  Arrange your leave with great care.  When I went to my Mother’s this summer for 21 days, I coordinated my purchases of grain, mylar bags, food grade buckets, etc. to arrive a few weeks prior to my arrival.  I spent a good portion of my leave in her basement packaging foods and storing things. Again, coordination is crucial, as you don’t want a ton of wheat arriving two weeks after you return to your overseas assignment.  Also, it gives you a chance to examine your merchandise and handle situations if you receive defective merchandise.

If you are considering firearms, know your state laws.  I never owned any firearms and knew nothing about them.  While I didn’t purchase ammo, I did purchase a shot gun and a rifle to keep at my Mom’s.  This was a challenge because most of us who have been in the military for any length of time, have had several moves and probably no longer have a home address in the state from which we joined the military.  In my case the most recent state I lived in before going overseas was North Carolina and even though I own property there, that didn’t help.  To purchase a firearm in the state of Virginia, I needed to show some type of bill addressed to me at my mother's house.  Fortunately her cable bill is in my name, so with that, a copy of my military orders, and my military ID, I was able to purchase the firearms.  Find out in advance what the requirements are for the state you plan to purchase firearms if you are still stationed overseas.

Business affairs – no matter how routine it may seem, read thoroughly every bank statement.  In preparation for leaving the States I got a safe deposit box at Marine Federal Credit Union. I had to have an account there with a minimum balance. Having met those requirements, another wrinkle has been added to the mix.  Recently the credit union schooled me to “Escheatment”.  In other words, my account is considered dormant because I have not had any withdrawals or deposits (interest deposits don’t count) for one year and this Dormant Account Notice was to inform me that in the State of North Carolina any account that is inactive for a period of five years will be claimed by the state.

If you want to buy gold or silver, most dealers will not ship overseas.  Either have it delivered to someone you trust impeccably for safe keeping stateside; place your order so that its delivery coincides with your travel back to the States; or visit a local dealer when you are in the States and make your purchases.  Finally, when we are overseas we get a fairly decent cost of living allowance (COLA).  Get financial counseling on base as many people are able to get on a financial plan to get out of debt while overseas.  If you are out of debt, treat the money as an extra pay check and use it towards your prepping plans.

In addition to annual leave (vacation), take advantage of opportunities that present themselves when you go on Temporary Additional Duty (TAD/TDY). Recently I was sent to Honolulu.  Aloha Stadium Swap Meet (hours and directions are available on the web) is fantastic!  On Saturdays and Sundays vendors are there that sell real flea market type stuff.  The touristy items are at the beginning of the swap meet but if you go all the way into the Meet’s Netherlands, you will find at least two vendors who sell military gear at bargain prices. I got mess kits for $1 each, cold weather gear, mosquito netting, and the list goes on.  One vendor also has a store in town but the best deals I got were from the older gentleman and his wife who only sell at the Meet.  Another place for good deals is the Marine Corps Exchange in San Diego.  Because the Marine Recruit Training Depot is there, when recruits drop out, the gear is cleaned and resold in the uniform shop very inexpensively (duffle bags for $2).  Some items can only be purchased by those still on active duty so research it; and retirees, make friends with some active duty folks.  Look for prepping opportunities when you get to travel to other areas.  I have ended up with so many great buys that I always travel with an empty duffle bag to either bring stuff back (some airlines will allow military travelers to check as many as 3 bags at no charge). Sending things back by snail mail with insurance is also a reasonable way to ship.

I am a single female prepper who has had to look at things from both sides of the aisle. Being stationed overseas is difficult, but you can think outside the box and make progress on prepping instead of waiting until you return to America.  One downside is that sometimes I don’t always get the best deals as I’ve had to weigh “’buy now’” and have it” vice “wait till I get back and maybe the Schumer will have already hit”.  For me the peace of mind of having some of the basics while they are still available outweighs waiting for a better deal, so I make the best of a so-so situation.  Hopefully these thoughts will help my active duty counterparts.

I’ve read many articles regarding “survival “ and “preparedness” topics, my conclusion is that an important area has been missed. Lots of planning seems to focus on food storage, water, supplies, and so on, yet I have not seen or read anything about “survival tools -- how to be prepared for anything mechanically”. So after considering this topic for several years, I’ve decided to introduce my own topic as far as tools for the self-reliant individual. My background includes 30 years of mechanical equipment repair on automobiles and trucks/trailers to heavy construction equipment including dozers and cranes. Having been exposed to working independently while on the road performing field work, you soon develop a survival sense that allows you to think through repairs and situations, even before you actually arrive at the work site.

Planning as we all know is the key factor, when considering what tools and equipment are  necessary.

• What are you planning on keeping running, is it your vehicle/boat/plane/ATV/snow machine/camper?
• What maintenance is required for each of these pieces of machinery?
• What supplies will be required, what spares are necessary for repairs?

Lastly, yet most important of all, will be the tools necessary to keeping your equipment up and running. Transportation is critical as for preparedness situations, as we all know. Once you have determined your needs, your spares, supplies, think through what tools will be required.

For example, to replace disk brake pads, you need to remove the tire/wheel assembly, compress the caliper, unbolt the caliper, install the pads, and reverse the process to put it back together.

Just for a simple job like this, you will need a lug wrench for the lug nuts, a large C-clamp to compress the caliper and a wrench or socket to remove the caliper. You need to sit down and consider what will be required in whatever contingency or jobs may arise, and how to deal with it. I have a list of tools that, over the years, I have found will suffice for most basic repairs. These tools are carried in what I call my “road box”. This road box has been with me a long time. Even though the original box has long since rusted away, most of the tools have lasted.

This set of tools is my choice based on my needs as well as the fact that you may have to improvise to get the job done. Here is the list that we can call our “survival tool set”.

• Storage box, a two-tray nesting type box made of durable plastic, now many years old.
• ¼” drive socket set, used on small nuts/bolts in tight places.
• 3/8” drive socket set, handy for removing nuts/bolts.
• ½” drive set including 12pt short sockets as well as 6pt deep sockets, include a “breaker bar.”
• Assortment of pliers (slip-joint, locking, needle-nose, side-cutting and electrical crimp type).
• Wrench assortment, my favorite are the “ratcheting type” as well as adjustable type in different sizes.
• Screw drivers an assortment of straight, cross and whatever else you may need depending on your needs.
• 12 volt test light, extremely handy for troubleshooting 12v troubles.
• Good hammer, I carry a 16oz Ball-pein type which works wonders when you need it.
• Ignition wrench set, allen wrench set and a “feeler gauge set.”
• Lastly, I carry an assortment of what I call “goodies”, clamps, bulbs, fuses,  spare wire and connectors, nuts and bolts, electrical tape, duct tape, Teflon tape, silicone gasket material, rubber freeze out plugs, tire plugs.

As I mentioned before, this set of tools has been my choice over the years to keep things going. I’ve changed oil and filters with the addition of a universal-type filter wrench, replaced spark plugs, changed fuel filters, replaced brake pads, repaired broken wires, plugged leaks on everything from fuel to water and air as necessary. I’ve improvised wiring for a trailer to keep the lights going and replaced a busted heater hose a few times. The size of my tool box is approximately  9” x 15” x 13” tall and there is room for more inside. Another consideration should be the need for “metric” tools, depending on you individual needs. Many vehicles today are metric and will require you to adjust your tool inventory as such. This tool set will also cover a great deal of home/shelter/retreat repairs if you again plan what you may have to do. An example would be with the addition of a pipe wrench you would be able to tackle plumbing repairs such as cleaning a  water well pump strainer from debris. As mentioned in the beginning, plan for all sorts of mechanical problems, consider what tools are required and adjust your inventory accordingly. If you carefully think all situations out thoroughly, your tool supply should be able to handle most anything that happens to arise.

Now to really complete your tool supply , you need to consider what special requirements that you may need. How about jacks as a beginning point, you should have a hydraulic bottle jack  and/or what I call a “farm jack” included in your tool supply. The bottle jack depending on its lifting capacity can solve many “lifting” situations. It will raise a vehicle including trucks/trailers, jack up a building if necessary. The farm type jack is versatile because it can “push” or “pull” as well as lift/raise. So with the easy addition of these two items you have the ability to raise, jack, push, pull and even if necessary use in some sort of improvised rescue situation. As I mentioned before that a 12VDC test light can assist in 12V repairs but the ideal choice would be a “multi-meter”, they are available everywhere from the basic variety to the extravagant type. Let your budget guide you on this, bottom line is that they are indispensable for troubleshooting various electrical problems. These types of meters can test DC (low voltage) as well as AC (high voltage).The important thing  to remember is “know” how to use it and what you are working with. Obviously if you need electrical training check out your community college for a class on basic electrical skills/repairs. My personal favorite add on equipment would be an air compressor. With this addition to your tool “cache” you will be able to air up tires, perhaps inflatable boats, blow out wet items, run pneumatic tools and the possibilities go on and on. Compressors come in all types and sizes, my favorite is the small electric variety, I used this type for the above mentioned as well as to run pneumatic nailers for remodeling work. There are all types of tools available for drilling, grinding and cutting. Again think about your needs then plan out the tools required.

Tools are just the beginning, you may need some type of mechanical training but common sense will cover most of the items that will need to be repaired. Shop manuals are really the key to preparedness, if you have the information required all should proceed according to your plan. Again as in all preparedness plans, look at all the “what if” scenarios, to determine what tools you will need to handle what needs to be repaired.

Good luck and head out for your local tool store to start “stocking up” your tool supply.

Hello Mr. Rawles,
I am new to your blog but after reading "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It" and currently reading "Patriots". I am an active reader of your blog. I am an Eagle Scout and by living the Boy Scout motto, Be Prepared. I have already been living the lifestyle without even knowing it. However, there are things that I still need to work on which is also complicated by the fact I am currently in the military and some of the areas are lacking due to the complex issues this create for myself. For example, moving every two to three years makes it difficult to stock pile on some things and I find that I have stuff spread across America in storage units, with family and friends.

Today, I saw something that would be beneficial for many people. Storage is a huge issue because many of us do not have unlimited funds and adequate space available but by being prepared this requires us to turn any space into storage space. If you have a garage, basement or other large storage facility you should consider installing a sliding shelf system, similar to the ones you see in hospitals for storing medical records. The shelve slide around on runners and only two shelves can be accessed at any one time however you can slide the shelves as necessary to access any of the shelves as needed. This makes it possible to maximize storage space but also allows you to maximize organization. Since the shelves slide together like books in a book case you can then post load diagrams as well as packing list of what is in stock, when it expires and even the shortages that need to be filled. I would also recommend that you also hang a note pad and pen to write notes of what is added, used, or even list of items needed.

These shelving systems are not cheap brand new. Therefore, I recommend that you keep an eye out for clinics and hospitals that are upgrading there current system and try to purchase the old shelving units. However, you could also install heavy duty, high quality caster wheels on your current, homemade or new shelving. Without having the runners it will be imperative to have handles mounted on the outside to assist with maneuvering the shelves. Do not go cheap on the wheels because a broken wheel could quickly make such a system difficult to use. In fact, as with everything else, buy some spare caster wheels so that they can be replaces as needed. If you buy the extras when you purchase the original set you know that they will fit perfect when it is time to replace them. Also, by having caster wheel installed you lift the shelving units off the floor which helps prevent moisture damage, which leads to rust and also will help reduce rodent and bug issues. You will be able to place traps and bait stations below the shelves.
Be Prepared, - S.K.

As most folks are running around fiercely to holiday parties and the malls in search of the perfect gift, even in these troubled times, it dawned on me that this is a unique time of the year that preppers can share our enthusiasm for our lifestyle. I started my preparedness journey (Yes, ‘journey’, as I’m now sure there is not a final destination. Can you ever be too prepared?) a little less than a year ago, and through sites like SurvivalBlog, have spent many hours educating myself about the numerous issues we may face in TEOTWAWKI. I often find prepping hard to discuss with friends and family, for the risk of seeming odd or simply being ignored, but I do care enough that I want them prepared.

One simple way I have found to bring others into the loop, is to focus my Christmas presents on items that will bring exposure to the subject and be useful for everyday preparedness or TEOTWAWKI. Rather than giving a fruit cake that no one wants (although I do understand the shelf life to be quite long!), I am putting thought into each person and finding a gift that works for them.

For my father, who is an over-the-road trucker in the Midwest, I have assembled a Bug Out Bag (BOB). He has the basic safety gear and tools for his rig, but he does not carry food, fire starters, or extra clothes that may be necessary if he is stuck in a snow storm for several days. I have purchased a sturdy pack from a surplus store and have stocked it with bottles of water, MREs with heaters, candles, lighters, matches, emergency blanket, portable radio, flashlight, batteries, and other essentials. I’ve also included some wool socks, gloves and a toboggan vacuum sealed. I vacuum sealed them so he doesn’t get the urge to use them in a non-emergency with the thought of putting them back that never actually happens (i.e., it must be an emergency if he is going to break the vacuum seal). I used this trick with other items in the bag as well, so they don’t ‘wander off’ and are protected from the elements. I will have him add a flannel shirt and other appropriate clothes at the time that I give it to him.

For my mother, who is an avid gardener and cook, I purchased a grain mill, 45 pounds of hard red wheat, and a book about cooking with wheat. She loves to bake bread, but has traditionally used store-bought ingredients. Now she can experiment with the mill before a TEOTWAWKI situation and I have also added a much needed prep item to our inventory. My mother lives 200+ miles away, but that is my current BOL (bug-out location), until I can buy my own land.

Instead of more clothes or a trip to the day spa for my girlfriend, I have purchased her the same 9mm pistol that I carry. Some may think this is like giving her a vacuum cleaner or exercise videos, but it is not. Over the past year, she has learned to shoot, obtained her gun carry permit, and started shooting with me in our local practical pistol matches with my gun, which she likes. She enjoys the activity, is quite proficient, and will enjoy having her own and I will feel more at ease as well.

Stocking stuffers can be great opportunities to help others with preparations too. Little things, like pocket knives, flashlights, NOAA radios, multi-tools, etc, are handy items that everyone needs. Other great gifts are books and magazine subscriptions on the subject of preparedness or really any skill (carpentry, gardening, alternative energy, canning and preserving). My college friend is getting "Patriots", as he loves a good story and I think the first chapter will challenge his thinking on the world around us. And for women looking for a gift for their man, most would probably love a gift certificate for a gun training course. Hint, hint, if you are reading this, honey.

All the above are items that are purchased, and cash may be tight at home. But you don’t have to spend big money to get your point across or to be thoughtful. You could give friends or family homemade soup or vegetables that you have canned, and a handmade gift certificate for teaching them canning and preserving methods. You can give them packets of seeds so they can do container gardening and give them an opportunity to learn a skill. The possibilities are endless if you package the gift the right way.

I do not have children, but do have a niece and young cousins. For the little ones, how about camping equipment made for kids, and a trip to go camping with you, even if just in the backyard. Or maybe a compass and some maps, and teaching them how to properly use them to find a hidden treasure (your choice on what the treasure will be). A rod and reel and a fishing trip are things that will not only teach them useful skills, but will give what kids need most; more time with parents or mentoring adults. Think about what you wish you knew growing up, and give the gift that will last a lifetime. I’m fairly sure their skills with the X-Box will not help them much if the SHTF.

So, if you are going to celebrate the season by exchanging gifts, why not help those you care about and who may not have a preparedness mentality yet. This can also pertain to birthdays, anniversaries, graduations, or other special occasions. I’m sure you believe, as I, that this shows more thought and caring than the latest fad clothing or cool new techno gadget that will be rendered useless by an EMP.

Most of the books and preparedness literature available seem to assume that our post-TEOTWAWKI lives will be in a place where we can expect cold winters and the four traditional seasons.  I understand the attraction of relocating to a mountain retreat in a lightly populated northern or western state, but like many others my current preparedness plan is for in-place survival.  I just so happen to live in tropical Florida.  I believe that many of these same considerations apply for those living in southern Louisiana, Alabama, and Texas.

There are both challenges and advantages to choosing a tropical location like Florida when considering long-term survival.  Generally accepted approaches to water storage, food storage, food sources, shelter, power, health issues, tools, clothing, and security issues must all be re-examined in light of the environmental differences between Florida and the mountainous northern states.  The plans presented in most preparedness books must be adjusted to account for these differences.

The humid subtropical zone that contains Florida and much of the southeastern United States requires different tactics and equipment than those used for the semi-arid west and continental northern regions.  In Florida, the debate rages on where to draw the ‘freeze’ line.  This is the imaginary line south of which, usually, it will not freeze.  Some put this at about 80 miles north of Orlando; others as far south as Lake Okeechobee.  In any case, the winters are very mild in Florida. Temperatures in much of Florida are rarely below 60 for more than a few weeks.  The humidity, however, is often extreme.  This means that we need to be less concerned about storing cold weather gear like sleeping bags, warm clothes, and fuel for heating and more concerned about protection from sun, insects, mold, fungus, and heat.  On the plus side, the climate here also means an extended growing season.

Everyone knows that the weather in Florida can be volatile.  Those that live in Florida must be prepared for hurricanes.  If you don’t already own hurricane shutters or screens, this should be one of your first priorities to protect your residence over the long term.  Depending on the materials selected for these shutters, they could also provide additional protection for your family from other threats – such as gunfire.  A home generator is also almost a requirement for residents of tropical climates.  In many tropical areas like Florida, most of the power lines are still above ground and the utility power is frequently out when these lines are blown down.  These utility lines are gradually being moved below ground, but it is a massive undertaking that will take years.  If you choose to live near the ocean, make sure that your home is elevated above sea level as far as possible so that you are less susceptible to flooding associated with a storm surge.  Or, at the very least, store a good supply of sand bags.  Florida is known as the ‘Sunshine State’ and it does get a lot of sun.  Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas get more sun, but Florida is still eminently suitable for using the sun for power.  If you are near the beach, you can also count on being able to consistently generate power from the wind. 

The location of your home or retreat in Florida or any other tropical area may be critical.  As of 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the population of Florida at over 18 million.  As many as 11 million of these people live in the largest population centers like Miami, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, Jacksonville, and West Palm Beach.  I probably don’t have to tell you – but, I will anyway.  Avoid these large cities.  Check the web site FloridaDisaster.org for the published evacuation routes.  These will likely be the same routes used for population migration out of Florida in the event of a major disaster or societal collapse.  Much of the traffic will have to go up the major north-south interstate highways like 4, 75, and 95.  Those living in close proximity to these routes will be at higher risk of looting, theft, and assault.  When looking for a retreat or place to live, look for the less populated areas that might be somewhat insulated from these migration routes.  You might consider living in one of the rural locations in central Florida or north Florida that are lightly populated.  I have chosen to live on a lightly populated stretch of the barrier island that runs the entire length of the state.  There are a limited number of causeways that control access to the barrier island from the mainland.  The island is narrow enough in many places to be defensible.  And, if necessary, evacuation by boat is possible using either the inter-coastal waterway or the ocean.

A sailboat can provide some additional benefits besides the option of escape or evacuation.  It can be used to store additional supplies.  It can be used for transportation and fishing long after a fuel shortage renders power boats useless or uneconomical.  It can be a self-contained mobile survival retreat when equipped with a desalination unit to provide fresh water from salt water and with solar PV and wind generator to charge onboard batteries that operate lights, radios, satellite GPS, fish finders, and other useful gear.  When anchored in a calm river or bay, it can offer a degree of security. 
One of the unique things about Florida is that the water table is very high – especially near the beach.  This makes it fairly simple to drill a water well, but it also means that very few Florida homes that have basements or cellars – it’s just too wet.  That means limited access to storage space for food and equipment. It also means that very few Floridians have access to below-ground shelter that would provide any decent level of protection from nuclear or radiological attack.  A garage can be used for storage, but this is often not a good choice either due to the high heat and humidity.  Near the beach, the high salt content in the air causes any exposed metal to corrode relatively quickly.  This means that the options for food and equipment storage are more limited.  One option is to set aside areas of the home that can be used for storage where the temperature and humidity are controlled.  Or, rent a climate controlled storage unit that is easily accessible to your home.  Another option is to build a climate controlled storage area in your garage or utility outbuilding.  This could also be useful as a fallout shelter if designed with enough shielding and HEPA air filtration.

Access to drinking water must be a primary concern of any preparedness plan.  However, in most tropical locations like Florida there is a lot of water available – fresh, brackish, and salt.  Many homes in Florida and other tropical locations have a large reservoir of fresh water at hand – the swimming pool.  But, care must be taken to ensure that this water source is protected from evaporation and contamination in the event that utility water is not available.  Make sure that you have a pool cover or a sufficient quantity of large plastic sheeting to cover the pool.  Head to the swimming pool supply store and stock up on the granular calcium hypochlorite that is used to treat your pool water.  This form of chlorine can be corrosive and reactive, so be careful to store it in a dry, secure place and rotate it as you would your food supply.  The same chemicals that are used to keep your pool clear and algae-free will allow you to disinfect your pool water for drinking purposes.  Filtering the water through an activated charcoal filter will remove the chlorine taste of the water.  A high-volume gravity-fed water filtration unit like those sold by Berkey, Katadyn, or AquaRain should be a key component in your long-term water plan.  Desalination units, such as those installed in some sail and power boats can provide a critical advantage in securing access to clean water.

As mentioned above, food storage can be a challenge.  Use plastic and glass to store and preserve your food supplies rather than metal cans.  Even stainless steel rusts eventually in the salt air.  Silica gel desiccant is your friend in a humid environment.  Use it to control moisture in stored ammunition, food, electronic equipment, and anything else that you don’t want to rust or corrode.   Batteries left in electronics or flashlights corrode quickly, so check and change them regularly or else store them without the batteries installed.  If you seal your electronics in Mylar bags with desiccant packs, you’ll protect them from moisture as well as protecting them from the effects of electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

Plan to establish a sustainable food supply. Even if you don’t already keep a garden, learn what grows and doesn’t grow in your soil and climate.  There is a wide range of soil types in Florida.  In sandy soil and humid environments near the beach, dietary staples might include the cassava, yams, sweet potatoes, bananas, plantains, coconut, date, heart of palm, citrus, peppers, and rice.  Other inland areas of Florida with richer, drier soil might better sustain traditional vegetables like potatoes, carrots, peas, beans, squash, and others.  Fishing opportunities abound in Florida and may provide one of the most easily acquired sources of protein.  Salt water fish can be taken from a boat, by snorkeling with a spear gun, or by surf fishing from the beach.  Traps can be set for crab and spiny lobster.  Rock shrimp can be netted from the river.  Bass, catfish, and many other species of fish are abundant in the rivers, lakes, and ponds.  Anyone that intends to remain in place in Florida should acquire the equipment and practice the techniques using cast nets, surf fishing and fresh water fishing with rod and reel.   Wild pigs are a real pest in Florida and can provide fat and protein in a diet.  Deer, turkey, duck, and goose are also available as are a variety of other water birds.  Alligator might be another source of protein for those near rivers or lakes where they live.

When choosing clothing for a tropical environment like Florida, give preference to lightweight, breathable, manmade fibers that will keep you cool and still wick sweat from your skin.  Avoid cotton and wool fabrics that will deteriorate and mold in a hot and humid environment.  When working or hunting outside, long sleeves and long pants should be worn to protect from sun and insects.  Be sure to have wide brim hats for protection from the sun and rain.  Good rain gear is a must for each member of the family along with good, high-top, waterproof boots. Consider a set of rubber waders for those that might be fishing or hunting in the wetlands and swamps.  Mosquito face nets will become more and more necessary when the commercial spraying currently used to keep down the mosquito population is no longer available. 

There are some unique health issues to consider in Florida and other subtropical or tropical regions when man-made pesticides and fungicides are no longer available.  Malaria and other mosquito borne diseases are not currently a concern in Florida.  But, they could become a factor again when the means currently used to control them no longer is employed.  In other parts of the world, mosquitoes spread encephalitis, dengue fever, yellow fever, West Nile virus, and other diseases.  Anti-malarial medications should be stocked.  Screens for doors and windows should be installed or repaired.  Standing sources of water where mosquitoes breed should be eliminated as far as possible.  Mosquito nets should be purchased and used to protect sleepers in bed during the night.  Be certain to stock mosquito and insect repellant with a high percentage of DEET. Ticks, fire ants, cockroaches, termites, and other insects are currently controlled only by extreme efforts using chemicals in many subtropical areas of the U.S.  Ticks carry Lyme disease, tularemia, and Rocky Mountain spotted fever among other diseases.  Fire ant bites can produce fatal anaphylaxis in those allergic.  They destroy small ground nesting animals and birds and have had a very negative effect on the wild populations of dove and quail in Florida. These pests and others could all become significant hazards to our health, food sources and possessions when the current suppression methods are no longer available. Molds and fungus are also causes for health concerns for those in tropical areas.  Mold or fungus infections can be serious in humans and difficult to eradicate.  They can poison or destroy food and make our home unlivable.   To combat mold, keep fabrics clean and dry.  Avoid cotton and natural fibers in favor or man-made fibers that are more resistant.  Use a dilute solution of bleach (sodium hypochlorite) or quaternary ammonium compounds to kill or clean up mold or fungus.  Be sure to wear a filter or gas mask when cleaning up mold.  Breathing mold spores can have long term health consequences.    You may want to stock mold and mildew inhibiting products like paradicholorobenzene or paraformaldehyde powder from the drugstore.  Be careful to store these chemicals and all pesticides away from food and access by children.  Be sure to have a supply of sunscreen available for additional protection from the sun.  This is an area that you should research carefully as many of the chemicals and additives in sunscreen are harmful.

In a tropical environment, there are tools and equipment that can be very useful that may not be needed in other environments.  Each adult should have a good quality machete or woodsman’s blade.  Cold Steel produces a variety of heavy machetes that are suitable for the brush and growth in the Florida wetlands and swamps.  Cutting is done with the end of the blade, so get one that is long enough provide the leverage to cut relatively thick branches and vines without multiple cuts.  Besides clearing brush, they are also good general purpose tools for defense against snakes (or men), cutting wood, butchering, and many other tasks.  Monofilament cast nets are great for catching small fish that can be used for bait or just dried for food.  Crab or lobster traps and long-handled shrimp nets can provide an additional source of protein if you have a boat that can be used to drop them.   If you are near the ocean, snorkeling gear and a spear gun can allow you to harvest fish and turtles even if compressed air isn’t available for diving.  Fishing equipment – hook, lines, leaders, etc. - will probably take the place of some of the hunting equipment that those in other climates might acquire.  Consider stocking naval jelly for rust removal and plenty of paint for protecting exposed metal.   Firearms may be the most important tools to Florida residents in the event of TEOTWAWKI.  Florida has a large population and, at some point, a lot of them may be looking for food.  Prepare to be charitable.  Prepare to defend your family, life, and property, as well.

These are just some of the considerations for surviving in a humid, subtropical zone like Florida in the event of a collapse, but I hope that it will provide food for thought and a starting point for modifying the plans and recommendations published elsewhere to be more effective for this environment. 

We can all agree that at the very least hard times are here, for way too many of ourselves, our friends, our family members, our acquaintances. And most of us here agree that harder times are a’coming. And I’ll add  another basic human agreement: we all need to nourish our bodies with food, preferably good-tasting and health-sustaining food. I’d like to address and share my thoughts on this basic human requirement. I am not an expert in food nutrition or preparation. I have no college degrees in these areas: my credentials are only a little common sense and 30 years of feeding my family, as well as possible, on the smallest dime possible.

So first I’ll address hard times: feeding your family on as little as possible during normal hard times. I have a few “rules” for thrifty cooking: (1) basics are better; (2) beans, rice and pasta; (3) meat is a flavoring agent, not a main dish;  (4) if it’s on sale, buy a bunch; and (5) use your imagination.

1. Basics are better. I’m talking basic cooking ingredients like flour, sugar, salt, oatmeal, baking powder/soda, spices/herbs, oil/shortening, bouillon/broth, dried milk, eggs, vinegars and soy sauce, basic vegetables etc. Learning to cook from scratch using basic ingredients will save you big bucks, is healthier, and can bring you immense satisfaction.  Learn to bake bread (I recently discovered the wonderful new “no knead” bread recipes: as easy as it gets, and makes delicious bread). Practice making scratch biscuits, cornbread and pie crusts. Play with serving flavored oatmeal for the kids’ breakfasts, instead of the expensive store-bought cereals. Try creating different soups and stews using the various spice and herb possibilities. Experiment with making a “kitchen sink” casserole or stir-fry, using different combinations of ingredients and flavorings.
2. Beans, rice and pasta. These should become your kitchen “go to” staples. They can be purchased affordably in bulk and can stretch any meal far beyond the usual menu ideas. Countless sauces and toppings can be created and stretched by being served over rice or pasta; all three items can bulk up soups or be the basis of warming and nourishing casseroles. I understand that if your constitution isn’t adapted to bean-eating (and carbohydrates in general) you may have intestinal distress - so start now on adding some bean dishes to your family’s diet. They’re cheap, tasty and healthy. Learn to cook a perfect pot of rice. It’s not hard, it just takes a little practice.
3. Meat is a flavoring agent, not a main dish. Meats tend to be the most expensive part of any meal, so get away from the “meat-n-potato” mindset when planning menus. Less meat, mixed and stretched with sauces, vegetables, broths, and the aforementioned beans, rice and pasta, etc. gives you a similar satisfaction, and good taste, for a lot less money. It’s healthier too. An example: I’m going to fix Sunday brunch for my family of five. I have a pound of bacon, which if I fried and had a basic meal of bacon, eggs, potatoes, toast, juice - we’d eat most, if not all, of that bacon. So instead I only fry up 3-4 slices, and stir it in with beaten eggs, potatoes, veggies, flavorings etc. and bake it for a breakfast casserole. I now still have 2/3 of the bacon, so for supper tonight I might use another 3-4 slices to flavor a pot of beans. With appropriate side dishes, it‘s another whole meal. And the last third I can use for another supper - a skillet of bacon/veggie  fried rice. We’ve eaten 3 wholesome and satisfying meals vs. 1 meal using the same pound of bacon. This is just one example, but you can see how a little thinking about your meat usage can really stretch a food budget.
4. If it’s on sale, buy a bunch. This is self-evident. If your grocery budget is very tight, start small on stocking up on sales, but start. Buy fruit and vegetables that are in season and therefore lower in price. Pay attention to grocery prices so that you’ll know what a good price is. In my area of the country, the price of a pound of cheddar cheese (which we use a fair amount of) can fluctuate from $2.69 all the way to $3.89. I know, from price-watching, that $2.99/lb. and below is a good price. So I always buy at least two at those times (four if the budget allows). Cheddar freezes excellently, I always have it on hand, and never have to overpay for it.
5. Use your imagination. I’d like to suggest a paradigm shift here: when planning your main meal of the day (let’s call it supper), don’t ask yourself in the morning “What sounds good for supper tonight?” Rather, you should ask “What do we have around that needs used up for supper?” Are there any leftovers in the fridge that could be adapted to a casserole? Any veggies that are starting to look bad, but could still be thrown into a pot of soup? Something you could “sauce up” and eat over rice or pasta? The possibilities are endless, and the creativity of trying to come up with a tasty meal using a little bit of nothing can even be fun!

And now we address harder times, or serious hard times, which is much more difficult because it’s theoretical. But we are all here on this most excellent Survivalblog.com because we at least see the possibility of food shortages, hyperinflation, loss of basic utility services, theta. So we’re stockpiling. Later, we may have to make do with the foodstuffs we’ve stockpiled or can otherwise forage. We may need to dramatically stretch small amounts of food. And we’ll want to be able to feed our families as healthily and tastefully as possible with what we’ve been able to put by. If we’ve already practiced the tips I’ve stated above regarding thrifty frugal cooking, then those ideas will also stand us in good stead in the event of serious hard times.

(For the purposes of staying on-topic, I have to assume that those reading this will have already addressed the basics of water procurement/storage/purification, and having at least three sources of a cooking method, in the event of serious hard times.) So back to:

1. Basics are better. I have stockpiled my own personal list of dehydrated veggies, herbs/spices, canned meats, and kitchen staples. Your choices would probably be different than mine. But the point is that stockpiling basic kitchen ingredients, rather than only prefab meals, means my choices in feeding my family varied and tasty meals dramatically increases.  Using my stores of basics I can bake bread, or use a bit of oil to make flatbread. I can prepare either cornbread or johnny cakes. I can make a breakfast of oatmeal, or even a treat of pancakes, because I’ve learned to make my own pancake batter and maple-flavored syrup. I can make noodles to stretch a pot of broth. Rather than deciding which can of soup to open, I can cook any  of a number of types of flavorful soups, stir-fries, or casseroles, using different ingredients and spices. My personal “A-list” of stored veggies is dehydrated celery, carrots and onions. I can mix these same three ingredients into a beef stew with potatoes; or I can use them with a bit of canned bacon or ham and make fried rice; or I can layer them with a flavored white sauce, a bit of canned ham or tuna,  some peas and some pasta for a hearty casserole; or I can cook them in a chicken broth with some beans, corn, rice, tomatoes, garlic and cumin for a tasty Southwestern soup. Same basic ingredients, infinite possibilities.
2. Beans, rice and pasta. Because I’ve stored quantities of these foodstuffs, my ability to stretch my stockpiles has also increased. I could open up a can of chili and feed 2 people, and rather minimally at that. Or I could heat that can of chili along with a cup or can of cooked beans, a cup or can of tomatoes, some garlic, oregano and cumin, serve a dollop of it on top of bowls of rice, and feed 4-5 people with plenty of flavor and satisfaction.
3. Meat is a flavoring agent, not a main dish. I can guess that meat would be in much shorter supply in harder times, and I am afraid to depend on electrical power to maintain stores of meat products in this event; therefore I’ve concentrated my budget on canned meat stores. This is expensive stockpiling. (Many people pressure-can their own meats; this is something you may want to look into.) So of course I would be rationing those precious meat stores to the greatest extent possible. Because I already cook our meals using smaller amounts of meats, I am in practice of imagining meals using meat more for flavoring than as a main dish.
4. If it’s on sale, buy a bunch. Saving money on my grocery budget today helps enable me to prep  foodstuffs for a possible harder-times tomorrow.
5. Use your imagination. This will be more important than ever in the event of serious hard times. I will have to substitute and make do with my stores. For instance, I have been researching sourdough bread-making, in the event that commercially-produced yeast isn’t available. I have been practicing bread-biscuit-and-pizza-making both in the charcoal grill and over (and under) the fire pit. I have been researching the foraging possibilities in my area - trying to learn what grows wild that I may be able to use to improve the nutrition of our meals. (Or even simply to keep us alive.) I’m thinking about the possibilities of “you bring me some of your venison and I’ll cook and stretch it three different delicious ways, using my stores, and we’ll share”. 

Entire books have been written on just small areas of what I’ve touched on here. Because the subject matter is so vast,  I’ve only hit the high points, hoping to give a learner somewhere to start, some things to think about. Every cooking skill we learn today, when grocery stores are full of affordable and available foodstuffs, could come in very handy later if shortages occur. Knowing how to create an edible and good-tasting meal from available little-bits-o’-nothing could become an important skill-set to have and share with others. Indeed, having this knowledge could someday be essential toward keeping ourselves and our loved ones alive and healthy.

Hi Jim,

You've probably already seen this storage food now sold by COSTCO but it was news to me. Is that a sign of the times or what? In Him, - Karen H.

Jim,

I just noticed that Shelf Reliance "Thrive" brand food is being sold at CostCo.com.

I love your site, - Robert C.

JWR Replies: With a few supplements, the Thrive food storage system would make a very good "core" food storage system for someone that puts a premium on their time. These are top quality products. You would of course want to add other foods for variety and to up the calorie count to compensate for the rigors of doing lots of physical work in a disaster situation. Don't overlook having additional fats and oils, as these are often lacking in many of the commercial food storage systems. (Too many lean meats and not enough fat and other nutrients can induce Rabbit Starvation (aka protein poisoning) --where you can have plenty of protein-derived calories, but still starve to death.) Adding a good quality multi-vitamin supplement and/or a sprouting kit is also important. And, needless to say, if you store wheat, you will also need to buy a hand wheat grinder.

If you do your own CO2 packaging (as I describe in the "Rawles Gets You Ready" family preparedness course) then you can set aside a one year supply even less expensively, and tailor the choice of foods to match your own preferences. In the course I describe in detail how to shop for nearly all your storage food items at "Big Box" stores like Sam's Club and COSTCO. By buying in bulk and re-packaging, you will end up with foods that are more palatable, and close to what you are already eat on a day-to-day basis.

I occasionally hear from consulting clients that get stuck in the rut of "over -planning". They do so much planning for training, and planning for stocking up, that they never seem to get around to doing either! Lengthy "to do" lists are worthless if they never get implemented. This sometimes reaches absurd lengths, as illustrated by one of my clients that showed me a spreadsheet on his laptop PC, in which he not only compared prices from various vendors for ammunition, but also tracked the changes in their prices, over the course of two years. I asked him: "Well, when did you buy, and how much did you buy?" His reply: "Well, none yet, actually, but I've found the best sources, and I've logged their price increases, shown in dollar prices here, and in percentage terms, here. Look here: This company has increased it prices by 12% less than these others. Now look at this column: their prices are up an average of only 21% since this time last year." So, while he was busy fiddling with his spreadsheets, the purchasing power of his money went down by more than 20%. He would have been ahead by at least 20+ percent, if he had just bought ammo a year earlier. But instead, he sat idly by and watched the value of his dollars melt. And these were dollars kept in a typical bank account, perhaps earning only 2% interest. (If he had invested precious metals, then he would have at least stayed ahead of the price increases on ammo.)

The foregoing instructs an important point: Avoid infinite planning cycles, and get started with some concrete steps at preparedness. Clip some coupons and go to you local discount grocery store or "Big Box " store, and actually lay in some supplies, when prices are favorable, of course. If you are not sure exactly what you should buy, or about the shelf lives of various foods, or how to repackage them in oxygen-free sturdy containers, then get a copy of the "Rawles Gets You Ready" family preparedness course. The bottom line is that a good plan today beats a perfect plan, tomorrow. Or, as we often used to quote in the US Army: "Better is the enemy of good enough."

Hi Jim,
The bulk-buy solution I settled on was to start my own food co-op or buying club, as an associate of a bulk supplier. They send out a monthly price list and can deliver weekly in my area with only two days' notice. My orders must meet a minimum of $350 each and I must be present when the truck backs down my driveway in order to properly receive and write a check for the shipment. The driver calls me an hour ahead of time so I don't have to wait around all day.

My aim was to make the buying club available to other nearby preppers strictly for bulk orders of long-term storage items but so far I have been the only one to use it.

The great advantage I see in a buying club is that it permits large purchases that would seriously raise eyebrows in a grocery store if they even permitted you to clean them out of the items you sought. (Some stores at least have threshold policies.) It meets the needs of procrastinators who finally decide that now is the time to stock the bunker. Also, the supplier's wholesale warehouse would not be mobbed as early as grocery stores would after TSHTF because few consumers would even know about it.

A downside of the co-op approach would be curious close-by neighbors witnessing you receiving scores of bags, buckets, and boxes, possibly coming over for a nosy visit while you are unloading. This has not been a problem in my location due to my long driveway but would present OPSEC concerns to many. Members of a buying club club who pick up their orders at the drop-off point might benefit from unloading their vehicle while the neighbors are gone or asleep. Another potential downside is that authorities or criminals could seize the bulk supplier's membership list in a search for "hoarders" of food supplies, an excellent reason for creating off-site caches. - Jim McC.

JWR Replies: Thanks for that suggestion. Two more caveats: Depending on your locale, you might need both a business license and liability insurance. We now live in a very litigious society. It is sad but true, someone that merely strains their back while on your property might file a lawsuit. So if you decide to operate with liability insurance, I recommend that you do not open up the organization to anyone except your relatives and trusted friends.

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I have just ordered your preparedness course. I can't wait for it to get here. I've been reading your blog for about a year now and it has changed the way that I look at everything. My husband is slowly getting on board with the preparedness thing, but he has a long way to go. Our house burned down over 2-1/2 years ago and we have been fighting the insurance company and contractors ever since. We still live in a trailer so I don't have much space for storage. But, we have found many places to hide 5 gallon buckets of food and thousands of rounds of ammo.

My point to this e-mail is that I have a suggestion for an alternative to big box stores like COSTCO, etc. My husband is a commercial beekeeper and buys large quantities of granulated sugar to feed his bees in early spring and late fall when there is no honey flow. Stores like The Restaurant Depot are an amazing deal. If you have one in your area, membership is free. The only requirement is that you have proof that you are a business. It doesn't matter what kind of business you are. This place is food storage heaven! 100 pound sacks of rice, beans, flour, corn meal, etc! It's much cheaper than COSTCO! Plus other shoppers don't look at you like your insane when you are buying enough rice and beans to feed an army. But we still have a good time messing with people in the store.

Thank you, Thank you , Thank you for writing this blog and "Patriots"! Although my family now thinks that my cheese has slipped off my cracker, I know that if the time comes, I will be able to provide for them.

Many thanks and prayers for you and your family, - Tricia H.

JWR Replies: Thanks for that suggestion. As I described in "Rawles Gets You Ready" family preparedness course, I have found that COSTCO, Sam's Club, and similar "Big Box" stores are a great place to stock up on bulk food that you can re-package yourself. (Typically done with 5- or 6-gallon food grade HDPE buckets. Commercial vendors like the one that you mentioned are a great option, but their selection seems to be much smaller, and the condiments that they sell are in either ridiculously large or small containers. (Such as one gallon bottles of mayonnaise, relish, ketchup, and mustard, or itty-bitty single-serving packets) Another option that I mentioned in the preparedness course is ethnic food stores. You'll often find the very best prices on rice there, and they do such a large volume of rice sale, that their inventory is usually very fresh.

Jim:
I've been reading your blog for some months and went out and purchased "Patriots" as soon as I learned about it. Good job, I very much enjoyed it and will probably read again and again as I often do with books I enjoy.

After reading your ‘Precepts’, I thought I would drop you a note. because I have always appreciated anyone that agrees with me.

First, I am a retired cop and a retired soldier so I have studied people in one career and weapons and equipment in another. I have been to a number of Third World countries and learned that what we have now is unbelievably good and where we might be going is will be unbelievably, well, sad.

I decided a very long time ago that the best place to live for my family would be a rural town. I did not want kids to grow up in an urban setting and having grown up myself in a suburban setting, I didn’t want to inflict that on them either.

So we moved. It was a shock at first. The nearest fast food was almost twenty miles away in any direction and the nearest traffic light is seventeen miles away, even today, twenty-five years later.

The town I chose was twenty miles from the nearest Interstate and even a couple of miles from nearest state highway. It is in the center of one the largest agricultural areas in the country and has its own grain elevator and storage business.

That means at any time of the year, there are upwards of 5,000 tons of corn and soybean stored within the town limits. You know, "the perimeter".

I had often thought that if given the means, I would like to own a house on a hilltop with cleared fields of fire and a view of the surrounding area. But that wasn’t practical and as time has proven, it wasn’t even smart.

If you’re going to have a survival retreat, it would be best if you already lived there. If the necessity ever arose, I don’t think I would want to have to fight my way out of the city or suburbs.

In "Patriots", you describe a survival group that spent a great deal of time preparing for the “what if?” I did the same thing but I chose was to have all those skills that you searched for and recruited all ready present.

Farm communities already have a host of survival skills that are needed ready made. In our town, of less than a thousand, are welders (and equipment) fabricators (and their tools) food, fuel, military veterans, plenty of weapons and folks that have already spent a lot of times together dealing with blizzards, electrical storms, and power outages and all those things that bind a small community together.

We have some good people here and should the occasion arise, I think we could make a pretty good stand. Organization is key, of course. To that end, I have been active in the town in the past , my last police job before going back in the Army was Chief of Police here. I made a pretty good name for myself and I continue to help out in the town whenever I can.

Someone that I have absolutely no respect for once said, “it takes a village” and in this case, she was right. We are far away from the nearest urban areas, have food and water available and our folks every day work skills translate very quickly into survival skills.

I wanted to share the thought because I think most people who are planning to attempt to escape from the urban areas when the SHTF may be much better served if they would make that escape before it happens. My very best to you, - JCH

Jim:
I'm writing this to thank you for your blog, novel and preparedness course. Reading those has revitalized my prepping efforts, which had gone dormant since Y2K fizzled. Since then, I had the nagging feeling that I should be preparing, but I wasn't--until I stumbled across your novel in a local bookstore. Then I got back on track. (BTW, it was mis-shelved in with the "how-to" books! Or maybe it wasn't mis-shelved, since its a novel that doesn't fit any mold!) And it wasn't until I read through your "Rawles Gets You Ready" course that I had any real sense of priorities. If I had to name just one thing that I found the most useful in all you've written, it would be your big "List of Lists", which you have as a part of your prepping course. Those lists really helped me to crystallize exactly what I had to do, and in what priority. Like you suggested, I'm custom tailoring my lists, to match up with my locale. (I live at 5,900-foot elevation, which makes gardening a huge challenge. I'm heavy into sprouting, these days.)

I'm now working my way back through your blog's archives. I'm amazed at how much is there, and all with the level of detail to do really concrete things to get ready. The thing I love about your blog and your prep course is that it is all hard facts, and tested ways of doing things by people that have "been there, done that"--not just vague generality and "this might work" sorts of guesses. Thank you, Jim, ever so much! - Stan in Colorado

So you’re convinced that the free ride is over, that things are getting worse, and when the worst happens, you want to be prepared. But you have a problem—you don’t have a lot of money for prepping and day to day living. Maybe you only make minimum wage. Maybe you make a little more than that, but you’ve got a lot of bills. Maybe you live on a fixed income, or have irregular self-employment. Regardless, don’t assume because you can’t afford expensive classes or pricey gear that WTSHTF, you’ll be unable to fend for yourself and your family. My husband and I make less than $10,000 (I’m disabled, he’s self-employed) a year, but we’ve already got a good start on skills, tools, and storage, have plans to expand, and it wasn’t difficult at all. Being on a low or fixed income can help you with a survival mindset, because you’re already used to making do with little, or having to get creative with what you have. You just have to expand what you have, a little at a time, and, before you know it, you’ve got a pretty good cache of supplies and abilities that can help you and yours no matter what comes down the pike.

Skill acquisition can be one of the easiest and cheapest things you can do to help yourself if you’re low on money. Ask family members, especially older ones, and if they could teach you these skills. Family with military backgrounds can be invaluable resources. After I found a Girl Scout survival camp wanting, I talked to my Air Force dad, and he gave me some of his old survival manuals. Friends are also good to ask for help learning things, and sometimes you can trade what you know for what you want to know. I’ve taught friends of mine simple things like gardening and cooking, in return for training in such things as knife sharpening, hand to hand combat, or camp cookery.

If you’re visually oriented, the Internet can be one of the cheapest ways to learn new skills. There are tons of things out there online that are free for the asking. Through various web sites, I’ve learned to make soap in a blender and on the stove, make apple butter, picked up free crochet and knit patterns, gotten gardening tips, and gotten advice on animal care, for a start. Plug in what you’re interested in learning into your favorite search engine and take off. It’s good to check out more than one site for certain skills, as a hedge against errors, and to expand your repertoire.

Books are another great way to teach yourself things, and you don’t have to spend thousands of dollars at the local chain bookstore, either. Check out your favorite online preparation sites and see what books they recommend, and make a list. Then hike down to your local library and see what they carry. Inter-Library Loan (ILL) can help you find books that your local city/county library system doesn’t carry. Some libraries provide this free, others charge extremely low fees (our local system charges a dollar per request, and you can request multiple books at one time). This way, you can see what books have the information you’re looking for, and which ones you would like to own. Even a book that you don’t like might help you glean some information that sends you on your way.

After checking out books at the library, you might find that there are some books you just have to own yourself, but you don’t want to pay out full price for them either. Used bookstores can be a Godsend here—I’ve managed to pick up the useful Foxfire series at local used booksellers for a quarter of the current cover prices. Auction sites such as eBay frequently sell books that are hard to find other places, and sometimes you can get whole lots of books in extremely good deals. Online book dealers often have sections for ordering used copies. I’ve used Amazon.com’s used services to get books like The Encyclopedia of Country Living for less than ten dollars. Talk to friends and see if you can swap books with them, and there are great places online where you can swap books all over the world for only shipping.

If you’re one of those people who learn best by doing, there are a lot of places where you can learn skills for cheap or free. A lot of my survival skills I learned from seven years in Girl Scouts, which sounds funny, but because of Scouts, when the major ice storm hit a few years ago and knocked out our power for almost two weeks, I was able to keep my husband and I fed with hot meals because I remembered how to make a hobo stove out of a coffee can with tin snips and a bottle opener. Other things I learned: how to chop wood, how to make an emergency shelter, and how to identify edible plants, and that’s just for starters. Offer to volunteer for your local Boy or Girl Scouts, or, if you have a child in Scouts, look through their manuals or ask them to teach you what they’re learning. This also works for children who are taking classes home economics or shop classes.

Your local county extension society, which connects people in your county with the latest information from your state land-grant university can be a great resource. Many people are familiar with the Master Gardener program they run, which trains people on every aspect of horticulture, so they can work as volunteers to the gardening public. Ask about scholarships to the training classes. Our local Master Gardener program usually costs $150, but when I asked if I could pay in installments, they gave me a full scholarship. County extension programs also help out farmers, administer county 4-H programs, and have a whole home economics department. That division at my local county extension gives out free handouts on many topics like budgeting and food preservation, and sells copies of the latest edition of Ball’s Blue Book of Food Preserving. Some extension societies also offer a Master Food Preserve program, which is administered much like the Master Gardener program.

Many churches offer programs that could help you learn skills for free or cheap. Most people know that the Church of Latter Day Saints helps people get together a food storage program, so ask your Mormon friends for help, or contact the Relief Society of your local Mormon ward for more information. The LDS [Provident Living] web site also has free links to information on preparation and food storage. Other churches have similar programs. A local Catholic Worker house in a city near me grows fruits and vegetables for the poor and homeless, and they are always asking for volunteers to learn how to care for the plants, in exchange for some of the produce. Again, ask around religious groups in your area, or scan the religion section of your local Sunday paper to get ideas.
Here’s a secret about learning survival skills—well before the economy tanks, the bomb is dropped, or what have you, you will start saving money. Learning to garden has helped my family eat better for less, learning to can has kept our pantry full in tight times, learning to make soap has helped us stay clean and healthy, and learning to sew, knit and crochet has kept my family warm and looking good. The money you save with your skills can be reinvested in learning more skills, or, as we’ll get to next, getting tools and supplies.

Tools and supplies for preparation can be an Achilles’ heel if you don’t have a lot of money to spare, but if you’re willing to look around in places you might not usually go, you’d be surprised at what you can find and for how little. Get an idea, first, of what you would like, again, make a list, and ask around. My mother in law gave me a sewing machine she wasn’t using when she heard I was learning to quilt. When I mentioned to one friend I was looking for yarn for knitting and crocheting, he said his grandmother had some she didn’t use anymore, and came over with three enormous boxes full of yarn, from wool to crochet thread to specialty yarns that retail for almost ten dollars a skein. When a neighbor moves, ask if you can have what they don’t want. One of our neighbors, before they left town, gave me a nice cast iron skillet that had just been taking up kitchen space. I was astounded when I checked online and found out that it was worth $80!

Garage sales can help you score fantastic deals. I got two huge cartons of canning jars and rings in many different sizes for $5, just two blocks from my house. I’ve also gotten embroidery hoops, sewing supplies, and out of print books just to name a few. Churches often have annual rummage sales that can be the place you find that one of a kind item that’s been eluding you. I’d searched three years for a used bread bucket (a metal container with a hand crank and a hook that kneads bread), and found one at a local church for $7. You can often dicker at garage sales, so if you see your dream item, but don’t quite have enough cash on hand, give it a whirl!

FreeCycle is a fantastic program online which matches people who have things to give away to people who are looking for free things. Go to their web site, which will direct you to your local program, and, through the mailing list, see what people are offering, and offer things yourself. For the price of bus fare or gas, I’ve gotten art supplies, kitchen helpers, and even more books for the taking.
Let friends and family know about some of the things you’re looking for and request them as holiday gifts. When I decided I wanted to learn canning, I asked my husband for a water-bath canning starter kit as an anniversary present. He thought it was odd, but after three years, he really appreciates the jams, jellies, pickles, and salsas! If people aren’t quite sure what to get you, tell them you’ll gladly accept gift certificates from a local or online store. And don’t hesitate to put items on a gift registry for large events—sure, people thought it was odd when my husband and I asked for archery supplies for our wedding, but they knew it’d be more useful than, say, a lemon zester!

Online auction sites can be a good resource for tools and supplies, but I recommend you research what you’re looking for, ask the seller questions, and don’t hesitate to complain about problems quickly to get replacements and/or refunds. I’m still kicking myself over a pressure canner I bought on eBay that I didn’t touch for months. By the time I learned that it didn’t work, it was far too late to contact the seller to complain or get a refund. However, I’ve gotten canning jars and rings in quantity on auction sites for a fraction of what I’d pay brand new, so just be careful.

Don’t be afraid to step outside of the usual places for tools and supplies. Army surplus stores can be heaven, especially for camping and survival supplies. Dollar stores can sometimes turn up with the most interesting things. One of our local dollar stores got a shipment of lamp oil in, and we stocked up on several bottles. One place that has turned out to have hidden gems for us is ethnic stores and supermarkets. I picked up a great grain mill at a local Hispanic market for $30, and it works great on wheat. We’ve also got our eye on some cast iron cookware at the local Asian supermarket.

If you look around, one of the best places overall to get tools and supplies are resale shops that sell items that were rejected from megastores because of damaged packaging or one item was damaged in a lot. Resale shops nearby have landed us great things, like 11 jelly jars with new lids and bands for $1, or a high quality four-man tent for $20. The best deal we’ve gotten so far was a food dehydrator that was brand new but didn’t have a box or a manual, for $25. Three minutes online and I’d downloaded and printed off the manual and several recipes, and it’s the best $25 I’ve ever spent.

Food supplies for stockpiling can be had for the cheap in many places. Dollar stores that carry canned food have been a great place for us to stock up. Off-brand stores are another wonderful place to get loads of canned goods. Even large chain supermarkets can have great deals on their store brands. Warehouse stores can be a good place for bulk-buying staples that are far cheaper than little individual packages. When I saw how cheap flour was in 25 pound bags at Sam’s Club compared to the grocery store, we started buying them and keeping it in a plastic bucket by the kitchen. While membership fees at these places can be high, go in with friends like we have and you can have a year of bulk-buying for maybe $5 apiece. Again, ethnic stores can be a bonanza for cheap staples. After seeing the price of 50 pounds sacks of rice at an Asian supermarket, we’ve got another plastic bucket filled to the brim with rice.

Some people might shy away from storing food if they don’t have a lot of room, but if you’re willing to think outside the box, you’d be surprised at what you can put away where. Part of my linen closet houses reused 2-liter pop bottles with an emergency water supply. The space under beds is frequently wasted space that can hold several cases of canned goods. You can even turn some of your storage into cheap décor—one book on home storage I read showed that you can stack up a few boxes of cans, cover it with cloth remnants or an old sheet and voila! You now have an end table.
When I first felt led to prepare for TEOTWAWKI, I was worried that our very low income would hamper preparations. But one thing that many people who have little have had to learn is something that we all need to learn: prioritizing, making the most of what you have to get what matters most. Many people spend out thousands of dollars a year for habits of a moment when they could be storing up skills and supplies to last them the rest of their lives. If it is important enough to you, you’ll make the necessary adjustments and start looking around for what you can get and learn.

Changing your habits and being open to learning new things not only changes you, it can change the ones around you. While my husband and I make very little compared to a lot of our friends, we are frequently the ones they turn to when layoffs hit or disasters strike. They’ve started taking notes, and many have asked us to pass on what we’ve learned, so they, too, can be prepared. Should things go south for whatever reason, perhaps our cheapest but greatest resource will be a group of friends that have many skills and supplies that can enable all of us to survive, come what may.

Throughout the last few centuries, mankind has been building and building up, combining raw materials and energy to create... stuff. This stuff is scattered all over urban population centers, and many of it can be used for basic life-sustaining purposes. I thought I'd write in and share some information I've gathered over the years in my work and in my hobbies, as it relates to sustaining life if you're trapped in an urban area. I'm enumerating the primitive uses of some very basic components for those interested, this wasn't meant as a guide for building any of this stuff, further research is definitely necessary and DO NOT try any lab chemistry without becoming an expert first and observing all the appropriate safety precautions. [JWR Adds: Handling strong acids and bases also necessitates wearing goggles, extra long gloves, long sleeves, a safety apron, having proper ventilation, and having an eye flushing bottle (or fixture) and neutralizers close at hand!] I hope this inspires others to share similar uses for modern waste.

Many urbanites will not have enough room to grow self-sustaining gardens in the soil in your backyard, with the limited growing season, and even if you did it would become a target for looters. Construction of a greenhouse in your backyard with adequate security may be a worthwhile compromise. Using hydroponics in your greenhouse will maximize your yield. Hydroponics requires that you're moving fluids around in a growing medium, and this movement requires electricity in the simplest setup. It also allows you to maximize your space by eliminating huge buckets of soil. One downside to hydroponics is that it requires more advanced technology, and most often an energy supply. Another downside is a requirement for more specific fertilizers.

Car batteries can be used to power your food supply and your home, a typical setup is a very sturdy shelf to hold rows of the deep cycle variant. You can calculate how much energy you'd need to power your appliances but a better setup for survival would be to only power a single DC circuit, with some very energy efficient appliances; LED lights, laptop computers, radios, flashlight battery chargers. I have a circuit wired in my basement which can be switched to backup power, so for me it would just be a matter of wiring an extension cable out to my greenhouse.

The equipment to build a battery backup system is widely available, it's very mature technology and has been very easy to afford with the increased usage of solar energy. Solar panel prices have also dropped almost 40% in the last couple of years. I recommend that someone with the cash to spend, who has already bought a long-term supply of food and other essentials, build themselves a photovoltaic backup system to keep your electronics running for years, using deep-cycle marine batteries for storage. It happens to be the cheapest form of storage, the deep cycle batteries are available from Wal-Mart and Costco at the best prices.

I recommend some form of sustainable electricity. Most fuels will go bad with time, the easiest fuel to reliably store is propane and many homes are equipped with propane and natural gas powered backup generators. Propane is extraordinarily cheap right now as well. A 300-to-500 gallon propane tank can be bought used for around $500 in most places, and propane is selling in my area for $1.79/gallon. Propane is produced from natural gas and, along with coal, are the two fossil fuels we're least likely to see a shortage of. Regarding solar, you don't need a 5,000 watt solar panel farm to power your essentials. Just one large solar panel on a pole will be enough [to provide charging] for your odds and ends DC-powered electronics.

If you intend to use scavenged car batteries for home power, you will need to come up with a scheme to charge them. If you charge a random collection of batteries off of one charger some of them may overheat and explode. You need to have an individual charging circuit for each of them, a temperature probe is good but not necessary. The best way to do this with a generator setup is with a multiple-bank charger or charging station, or with multiple charge controllers in a solar setup. It would be a good idea to have backups, so you might as well have one charge controller for every battery. If you're running a generator, it is especially important that you use a battery backup system, as it allows you to use the energy more efficiently to charge up a battery bank which you can use for days to power efficient appliances.

Another interesting thing about car batteries is what you can do with them if you're not using them for power. Car batteries contain two main ingredients, sulfuric acid and lead. Sulfuric acid is used in many industrial processes. It's a source of elemental sulfur, and these strong acids are used to convert many other substances to something usable.

Hundreds of years ago people made saltpeter for formulating black powder by urinating in a jar and adding straw to it (almost too easy, huh?). A more industrious method would be to mix straw and manure into a pile and urinate on it regularly to keep it moist. This was called a "niter-bed". After a year, run water through it and then run the resulting mixture through a wood ash filter, and then air dry the resulting mixture in the sun. Any failed batches could always be used as [the basis for a larger quantity of] fertilizer. Your urine contains nitrogen in the form of a chemical called urea, which means it also makes a good fertilizer (1 part urine and 10 parts water immediately applied makes a decent fertilizer). The urine/straw mixture would change over the course of a few months to contain nitrates, mostly a chemical called potassium nitrate, or saltpeter. Wood ash contains mostly potassium compounds and can be used to convert remaining nitrates to potassium nitrate. Potassium nitrate is a powerful oxidizer. Mixed with a fuel it forms the ingredients of many fireworks such as bottle rockets. Black powder is made with a mixture of 75% potassium nitrate, 15% charcoal, and 10% sulfur. Sulfur can be found on the electrodes of the car batteries, or it can be produced through electrolysis of the sulfuric acid. A good rocket fuel is 60% potassium nitrate and 40% powdered sugar, should you have a need for rockets, perhaps as a signal flare.

You can buy potassium nitrate over the counter from the hardware store (Lowe's and Home Depot). It's known as stump remover and is available in 1lb bottles. If you're doing that last minute shopping, it might be a good idea to swing by the pesticides shelf and buy all the stump remover while you're getting your fertilizers and everything. Potassium nitrate has an NPK rating of 13-0-38.

In the 1890s, widespread use of "smokeless powder" was adopted, which is about three times as powerful as simple black powder. This was a result of a substance called nitro-cellulose or guncotton, which is which can be made from cellulose and nitric acid and some other chemicals by means of nitration. Nitric acid is a very useful substance. Nitro-groups or nitronium ions can be added to certain chemicals to create explosives. Compounded with hexamine fuel tablets (Esbit fuel), it forms [the equivalent of ] RDX explosive. Compounded with glycerine, it forms nitroglycerine, that with added stabilizers forms dynamite or blasting gelatin. (Not to be confused with trinitrotoluene (TNT), which is generated by the nitration of toluene.) The most useful application of nitric acid though is in making smokeless powder, commonly just called "gunpowder" today, which is a compound of nitrocellulose and a number of other proprietary ingredients. It can be made from cellulose and nitric acid and some other chemicals by means of nitration. [Reader M.H. Adds: Doing any of this will take considerable study and storing some other chemicals, since nitric acid just by itself will not (to any significant degree) nitrate organic compound such as glycerine, hexamine or toluene. For details, see the book titled "Chemistry and Technology of Explosives" by Urbanski (available online).]

The government has made it difficult to purchase nitric acid without a valid reason. You can make it out of sulfuric acid, from the car batteries, and potassium nitrate, from the niter beds. You will need some basic lab equipment to do this, a glass distillery connected to a vacuum pump (a vacuum distillery), and a hot plate. With the leftover parts of the car battery, mainly lead [and wheel weights as a source of antimony for hardening], you can mold lead bullets. The lab equipment required to perform some of these reactions is useful in many other processes, such as an ethanol distillery, so it may be something you'd want, regardless. Take care that you don't cross into illegal territory with your experimenting. Potassium nitrate and black powder aren't controlled substances, but at some point gunpowder becomes classified as an explosive and requires a permit to manufacture. [JWR Adds a Strong Proviso: This summary information is provided for educational purposes only. EXTREME safety measures must be taken, and all the legalities and zoning issues must be researched, permits obtained, et cetera. Also, be advised that the instructions presented in many of the published references on do-it-yourself explosives making have insufficient safety margins. For example, the set of directions on making nitroglycerin in the book The Anarchist Cookbook, could best be described as a "recipe for disaster." It will get you killed or at least maimed, in short order!]

Another interesting thing I'll mention is that handgun calibers and muzzleloaders are better suited for lead bullets with no copper jacket, since they travel through the barrel slower they can be made softer. Forming a copper jacket around a bullet is difficult and expensive. [JWR Adds: One notable exception to this is making jackets for .22 caliber bullets, which can be made with discarded .22 LR brass and lead wire, using commercially available forming dies.] I think it's also worthwhile to own at least one muzzle-loading black-powder rifle, and bullet forming equipment. Manufacturing guncotton is not nearly as easy as black powder. You can no longer readily buy black powder [in gun shops] today, it is less stable and more expensive to ship. Even the modern muzzle-loader propellants (like Pyrodex) are smokeless powders. So, you may find black powder is all people are using one of these days, as they can make it in their backyard. Either stockpile thousands of primers or use a flintlock style rifle.

I mentioned that urine can be used as a fertilizer, nowhere is this more true than in a hydroponic system. Plants need three main chemicals to grow, all three of which must be in a soluble form. urine is easily the best source of nitrogen in soluble form. Potassium can be gathered from wood ash easily by running fluids through it. Phosphorous is the hard part, and many fruiting plants need phosphorus, so it is the area where you focus the most energy. Bone has phosphorus in it, and a commonly used fertilizer for plants is bone meal in the form of calcium phosphate. Bone meal has an NPK rating of 4-12-0. Bat guano is one of the best sources of phosphorous, and bird droppings ("Bird Schumer") can similarly provide a good supply. Be careful with bird droppings though, many contain diseases especially pigeons. You may want to boil it first. Match heads can also be used for their phosphorus content, if for some reason you have thousands of matches with no barter value.

Back to urine fertilizers: When you urinate into the water your urine and many other nitrate fertilizers begin to break down into ammonia, which needs to be filtered out. If you've ever maintained a koi pond you know this can be accomplished with the use of a bio-filter. Another way to do it is with an aquaculture setup, which means connecting a fish hatchery to a hydroponics setup. The fish and the plants thrive off of each other. This has evolved into it's own industry called aquaponics, and has proven to be a commercial success, mainly to serve as leafy plant production on top of a primarily fish producing setup. If you get sick of eating that dried corn, try feeding it to a 55-gallon barrels full of Tilapia. Tilapia has been the preferred fish stock as it will eat a wider range of things, but the temperature must be kept warm. It's possible that even in colder climates a greenhouse would provide sufficient trapped heat to keep the fish alive.

Many of these techniques can form the foundations of exciting hobbies such as model rocketry, aquaculture, hydroponics and gunsmithing. I strongly encourage you to absorb some of these hobbies in your life, if they appeal to you. [Do plenty of research, and get lots of practice,] especially when it comes to something sensitive like fish or hydroponics. Beginner's mistakes could spell the end of you if you're depending on this for your urban survival. I've opted to fortify my suburban home on a quarter acre and optimize it for survival, with over two years of food storage for me and my family to get started and enough energy to cook it. If this is all you can afford then make the most of it!

Letter Re: Making Do at a Rural Vermont Retreat

James,
While I could wish to be west of the Mississippi, my wife and I will have to retreat where we are. My elderly parents are nearby, and my wife has made it very clear she has moved for the last time. Vermont is where we will be for the foreseeable future.

We live within a rural town of approximately 2,000 residents. We are about seven miles outside of a twin-city with a population of 28,000. We lack like-minded neighbors both in faith and preparedness. We hope our far-flung family will be able to rally here, but are realistic about their chances. Not an ideal location, but we work with what God have given us.

We own 60 acres, mostly wooded with some pasture, up and three miles out of town on a dirt road. Our home is close to the middle of the land, at the end of an 1,100 foot driveway and it is not visible from the road. The driveway could be easily blocked if necessary. We have cleared good areas around the house without giving up our privacy. We heat with any of three sources, wood, pellets, or oil. Our neighbors include a medical doctor and a nurse/midwife and two miles down the hill is a dairy farm with 400 head.

We have three spring-fed ponds, (one is stocked with trout), a deep artesian well and a developed spring with a concrete cistern. We use a small greenhouse to extend our short growing season and have apple trees and blueberry, raspberry and blackberry bushes. We can and dry fruits and veggies, I hunt and we both cook. We have about 18 months of food in storage (dehydrated, canned, frozen and grains) and expand our larder as we are able. We used to be cold weather tent- campers and have all of the equipment that goes along with that sport in both propane and white gas.
Our arsenal is varied, deep and redundant. It includes four muzzleloaders and supplies; they are hunting and hobby rifles, but they will still put food on the table or provide defense in a pinch.

We have much on our “things to do” list. Fuel storage is a problem in quantity due to permitting issues. We do have the fuel oil tank in the cellar for the tractor, but gasoline will be limited to our cans. Our only generator is small, only able to power the pellet stove, a couple of lights and a radio. We do hope to add solar in the future. Our home is not as defensible as I would like due to glass windows and doors and we lack man-power for long term survival.

We will never be as ready as want to be, but we will be as ready as we are able. Our greatest assets are Jesus and each other. - B.C.

Mr. Rawles,
I am a retired Army warrant officer working for the Army teaching Electronic Warfare and Signal Intelligence. I only started reading your blog last week. It's addictive, but slightly disturbing.

Having worked for the Army for 27 years in a number of different failed countries I may have a unique perspective on survival that I would like to share with your readers. I believe most of the "survivalist community" is vastly underestimating the impact that other humans are going to have on their plans. Hunkering down and waiting for everyone to die off is a simplistic plan and I believe has almost no chance of working. You may be able to hide your retreat, but you can't hide the land it sits on. That land itself may become a scarce commodity if the US transitions to an agrarian economy.

Food is the key resource. Most communities are at risk because they simply don't have enough calories stored to get them through any kind of crisis. But, storage is no more than limited capital to allow people time to grow more food. Food production requires land....if your retreat is sitting on farmable land, it will be a scarce resource.

Carrying capacity of the US using non-petroleum farming techniques is far lower than most of your readers probably think. Also, most areas of the US, especially cities, don't have anywhere near enough farm-able land to go back to some kind of agrarian pattern. Without public infrastructure and modern transportation, we are going to experience a huge die-off caused mostly by starvation. In a total collapse scenario without immediate restoration of the economy, basically everyone who lives in a city is doomed unless they can take over some kind of farm land.

If you live in an area without enough farm land, you will be a "have not". Period. I don't care how much food you have stored in your basement.

Here is my key point. These teeming millions will not just starve and go away. I believe that anyone who thinks they can defend a working farm against raiders is deluding themselves.

1. People are dangerous. They are the most dangerous animal on earth. You can never lose sight of that! In almost any society breakdown scenario you can think of, you will be surrounded by starving predators that are much more dangerous than tigers. In the USA, every one of them (or at least the vast majority) will be armed with firearms. The ones currently without firearms will obtain them by any means necessary including looting government armories. These are thinking-breathing and highly motivated enemies.

2. Raiders, defined as "outlaw looting groups" may be a threat for a very short period, but I really don't see groups of more than 4-6 ever forming...they will be quickly replaced by much larger groups of "citizens" doing essentially the same things, but much better armed and organized.

An Example: A few hours after Albania's political crisis in 1998, (which was caused by a national lottery scam), almost every adult male in the country procured an AKM from government stocks. Armories were the first targets looted. I flew into Tirana packing a pistol and a sack of money, naively thinking I would be able to move around the country and defend myself. What a laugh. Everyone had me outgunned, and the vast majority of them had military training of some sort. I never got out of the capital city. Every road seemed to have roadblocks every few miles, blocked by armed local citizens.

3. Without central authority, people don't just starve and go away. They form their own polities (governments). These polities are often organized around town or city government or local churches. They may call it a city counsel or a committee or a senate. The bottom line is, "We The People" will do whatever "We" have to do to survive. And that specifically includes taking your storage goods.

4. When (not if) a polity forms near you, you had better be part of that process. If not, you will be looked upon as a "resource" instead of a member of the community. The local polity will pass a resolution (or whatever) and "legally" confiscate your goods. If you resist, they will crush you. They will have the resources of a whole community to draw upon including weapons, vehicles, manpower, electronics, tear gas, etc. Every scrap of government owned equipment and weaponry will be used, by someone. Anyone who plans to hold out against that kind of threat is delusional.

5. The local polity that forms is almost certainly going to make mistakes. Some of them are lethal blunders. Odds are, the locals will probably not have given a lot of serious thought to facing long term survival. They will squander resources and delay implementing necessary actions (like planting more food or working together to defend a harvest). They may even decide to take in thousands of refugees from nearby cities, thereby almost insuring their own longer term starvation.

A much better approach is to be an integral part of the community and use the combined resources of the community to defend all of your resources together. This would be much easier if a high percentage of the community were like minded folks who were committed to sharing and cooperating. Because any community with food is likely going to have to somehow survive while facing even larger polities, like nearby cities, counties or even state governments. Don't expect to face a walking hoard of lightly armed, starving individuals. Expect to face a professional, determined army formed by a government of some kind.

A small farming community can probably support a few outsiders, but not very many. The community will need to politically deal with outside polities or they will face a war they can't win. Hiding the fact that you are self sufficient is going to be hard. You can't hide farm land.

Defending your resources against the nearby city will be even harder. You may be able to save the community by buying protection with surplus food...if you have prepared for that. You may indeed have to fight, but stalling that event for even a year could mean the difference between living and being overwhelmed. In any case, your community needs to go into the crisis with a plan. You may be able to shape that plan if you become a community leader instead of a "resource". With Very Kind Regards, - R.J.

JWR Replies: You've summed up some essential truths quite succinctly. Your points square nicely with the scenario in my first novel ("Patriots"). It also matches my premise of gemeinschaft kampfgeist, in the context of cohesion in the "we/they paradigm."

A few days ago, The Telegraph reported:

"An asteroid that exploded in the Earth's atmosphere with the energy of three Hiroshima bombs this month has reignited fears about our planet's defenses against space impacts. On 8 October, the rock crashed into the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The asteroid was around 20 meters across and hit the Earth's atmosphere at 45,000 mph. The blast was heard by monitoring stations 10,000 miles away, according to a report by scientists at the University of Western Ontario. Scientists are concerned that it was not spotted by any telescopes, and that had it been larger it could have caused a disaster. Luckily, due to the height of the explosion - estimated at between 15 and 20 km (nine to 12 miles) above sea level - no damage was caused on the ground."

Later reports mentioned and estimated 5 to 10 meter diameter for the asteroid. Let's consider the implications of this event. If this had happened in the skies over a First World nation, or if the explosion had taken places at ground level (or near ground level, a la the 1908 Tunguska event), then there would be a huge clamor and calls for early asteroid impact prediction, and greater preparedness. But since this took place above what most consider a backwater nation, and there was no visible damage on the ground to photograph, this news story was resigned to "minor headline" status. And what if the object had been 100 meters in diameter, instead of 20?

We've previously discussed asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits--also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs)-- and the consequences of potential impacts in SurvivalBlog.

Asteroid impacts are one of those "low likelihood but high disruption" events. The chances of one occurring in our lifetimes is relatively low, but if one were to happen, the implications would be huge. In anticipation of future asteroid impacts, here are some factors to consider:

• An asteroid impact could cause short-term climate change that could in turn cause multi-year crop failures on a hemispheric or even global scale. This means that it would be prudent to have multiple years food storage
• The importance of living in inland areas. Let's face it: coastal areas anywhere on earth are vulnerable to mega-tsunamis, if you factor-in the threat of asteroid impacts. Unless there is some massive intervening terrain, don't live at less than 500 feet above sea level if you must live within 25 miles of an ocean. A 300+ foot high tsunami might seem hard to imagine, but just ask an astrophysicist. It is possible, and in fact there is some geologic evidence that that mega-tsunamis have occurred in the past 6,000 years.
• Never underestimate the implications of mass hysteria and misdirected government reaction to a crisis. News of imminent crop failures might inspire executive orders mandating the collection of "hoarded" food. Hint: This will probably include food that you started storing years ago--long before any imminent threat warning or post-incident panic buying. So I must again warn my readers that it is wise to keep a low profile about your preparations.

I have been studying the threat of asteroid impacts for many years. NEOs represent a "wild card"scenario. Since a fairly complete orbital path tracking database probably won't exist for 20+ years, this threat will remain an imponderable for the foreseeable future. Until a fully-populated database is developed, this will remain a quasi-voodoo science. The Indonesian event illustrates just how easy it is to get blind-sided. And even after we have complete tracking data, it will be decades longer before we start to proactively develop a program to "nudge" the larger NEO asteroids into safer orbits.

But again, keep in mind that this is one of those "low actuarial risk/high consequence" events. Plan accordingly.

Jim:
Buryl misses the point to storing coffee. Freeze dried blocks of ground coffee wrapped in aluminum foil pouches and vacuum packed is my preferred method, but I also store instant coffee crystals.

I recommend not getting addicted to coffee. I can take it or leave it. But it is a wonderful trade/barter item. Especially after six months or a year or more have gone by after the SHTF and there is no coffee to be found anywhere, a stash of coffee will be good as gold with its purchasing power. Storing jerked meats and especially honey as barter items are favorites of mine. Of course one has to be ultra careful who he trades food and ammo with. I would never trade with anyone I didn't know or not from my home area.

I also recommend stockpiling ammo, especially 22 Long Rifle (LR) ammo, because I think it will become the currency post SHTF. It is light, easily portable, and you can carry a bunch of it. If each cartridge has about the same purchasing power after the SHTF as a dollar has now. And with the scarcity of such ammo and supplies post-SHTF, I think 22 LR ammo will be worth its equivalent weight in silver. People that now can't afford to stockpile gold can still stockpile ammo, especially 22 LR ammo at 3 or 4 cents per round. - R.L.

Because of our financial constraints, aggravated by the economy and rural area we now live, my family cannot afford to own a second “retreat” home, nor do we have much land on which to build a shed or store much of anything. As a boy, my parents didn’t have much money, and through a mix of my dad’s “fix it or make do” attitude, the scout motto “be prepared” and my newfound need for better frugality, I’ve made a kind of checklist that every non-food purchase my wife and I make must go through, and it’s jokingly called the Dumpster list. Each point of the dumpster list should be met as well as possible, if that point is applicable. The list helps us stretch our dollars, limit our output of refuse, and choose items that are easier to transport and maintain should we be forced to evacuate or relocate during an emergency event.

DURABILITY.  I try to purchase things that are built strong and proven strong. I buy denim or rip-stop pants. A lot of items I purchase are “military surplus” or Mil-spec items, because they are meant to take rough treatment and last a long time. Sometimes an item can be made stronger/more resistant/durable for a small charge. Having some sort of puncture-stop material added to our bike tires or spending the extra money for some sort of hard-shell case for a piece of essential gear would be examples of adding durability.  

UTILITY rather than Fashion. Cargo pants are not always in style, but the extra pockets and (often) durable nature make them useful. Military-style clothing, available from surplus stores, is usually made in “large, medium, small”-type sizes, but have straps, drawstrings and Velcro to make them a perfect fit. Hiking or “combat” boots may look a little out of place or extreme, but they are made for walking and climbing, are waterproof, and often breathe just as well as tennis shoes. If you get some with steel toes, you are eliminating a lot of toe-injuries that could come from tripping, dropping something, or kicking old logs or stones when trying to carve out a shelter or forage for food. A junky old diesel truck might be ugly, but offers several benefits over a nice new car or SUV.

MULTIPLE USE. Our 72-hour kits (which go in the vehicles whenever we go somewhere) contain several items, most of which have multiple uses. I always carry a “Leatherman”-style multi-tool, for example, because I frequently need a knife to cut something with, a screwdriver to tighten something with, or pliers/wire cutters to bend or trim cable or wire. I carry an “entrenching tool” that works as a shovel, rudimentary saw, and pick. I large iron Wok is my favorite cooking utensil, because its depth allows me to boil water or heat oil, but wide mouth makes it easy to also cook things that need to be more spread out, like eggs or fish fillets. Its handles make it easy to be tied to a pack when we go hiking. When I buy my heavy-duty clothing, I try to choose colors or styles that allow them to double as nice church pants or everyday wear. I wear “web belts” because they adjust to my comfort with more precision than a regular hole-punched leather belt, and this adjustability allows them to be useful for other things, like tying down sleeping bags, bundles of wood, or to be used as tourniquets. The “teeth” in the buckle are also suitable for emergency scraping and small-scale sawing.

PORTABILITY. Strong but light materials are a great blessing. My primary firearms are lightweight but strong. One of the few camping items we ever splurged on were our ultra-lightweight sleeping bags, because they can fit into a very small space. Though we have no unrealistic plans of “heading to the hills” with the rest of civilization in a TEOTWAWKI situation, keeping our load light helps us be prepared for last-minute relocation or evacuation in the event of an emergency. Having lightweight material in a pack also greatly extends your ability to trek longer distances because it puts less strain on your body (which is essential for those who are “out of shape” or injured.

REPAIRABILTY/SALVAGEABILITY. I try to acquire items that are easy to fix or have easy-to find spare parts. Where I live, for example, there are not a lot of BMW dealers, so it doesn’t make much sense for our only car to be a BMW, even if we can afford it. It takes to long to receive or locate parts, and some part sizes are made for tools I don’t own. The same goes for old fashioned “tube radios” or other items made from parts no longer manufactured/manufactured only by specialty shops. Fabric items (tents, packs, tarps) should be resistant to mildew but also easy to repair with sewing items on hand. Items that are less likely to rust are obviously preferred, but I also try to stay away from weak plastics that might break or chip (because plastic is more difficult to repair than wood/,metal for the average person). I try to learn the “ins and outs’ of every new item we get, so it can be repaired if need be.

Is it TRADEABLE? Will the item be of value for trade in an emergency situation? Some things like ammunition, gasoline, food and other supplies are good bartering tools. Other items, like vehicles, firearms and entertainment items can be “traded in” or sold at a depreciated rate (or, if you’re lucky, at an appreciated rate) when you hit hard times, need to leave town, or simply no longer need the item. We do our best not to fool ourselves into thinking anything – including firearms – are an “investment”, because it is safer to be prepared for a bad day and pleased by a good one than it is to be unprepared.  

ENERGY. What kind of batteries does it need? Can it be powered from a 12 VDC car adapter? Solar power? What kind of fuel does the vehicle use? Will it run on something else? What is the likelihood of that fuel/battery/power source being available in an emergency? How long will the battery/fuel last before it goes bad? What are the best ways to store them? Perhaps the most useful question: is there a hand-powered version available instead? If the item is battery powered (a flashlight, for example), I try to find one that is most efficient in its power usage.

REDUNDANCY. When possible, I like to acquire two or more of certain items, especially if I like them or they tend to wear out after awhile (clothing, boots). Having duplicate equipment also allows you to use one for parts if parts are unavailable elsewhere. Some items are also good for barter. Others are good to leave at home while you take the other on the road. Some of my firearms purchases have been driven by the type of ammunition for this purpose – I’d rather be able to use what I have in multiple weapons than to have to keep multiple types of ammunition stocked.

I don’t include “Price” in the checklist because I’ve learned (contrary to what my parents tried to teach me) that most of the time, paying more for a high quality item saves more money in the long run than buying a cheap item, which have to be repaired or replaced it frequently. As long as we aren’t charging it to a credit card (or creating other debt) and are living within our means, I try not to think much about price. We also do most of our non-immediate shopping on the internet, because it is easier to find exactly what we need than making do with what we find at the local hardware or department store, and the prices (including shipping) are much better. 

By running our potential purchases through the Dumpster list, we’ve actually modified some other areas of our life, and it has helped us to generate less trash, have less blinking-light/electronic noise toys for our children, and I haven’t had to buy any new clothes in over a year now. Though I thought there would be more potential for “hard work” as a result, we’ve found that by being more picky about our purchases, as well as giving them proper maintenance, we’ve actually had a lot less break-downs to deal with and our “free” time has actually increased.

Dear Mr. Rawles,

Greetings! I saw a blog letter mentioning FSA (Flexible Spending Accounts)-one medical plan that helps the average person. Basically, one’s employer (private, public, etc.) has some amount taken out before taxes and this money is put into a plan with a pre-set amount that must be used by the end of the plan year.

Okay, what many people do not know is that IRS laws allow the following:

Once the plan is started, the full year's funds are present, even if you have not had that total amount saved up yet. Example: I set the plan to $1,000, and at the start of my plan $20 is taken each paycheck (50 weeks). But, I can start applying the plan immediately for the full $1,000. These funds are used to reimburse co-pays, over the counter drugs, reading glasses, or other prescription and generic [medication] costs.

Here are two important points I found out last summer:

First, the medical supplies reimbursed for by this plan include medical supplies, including Quik-Clot, Celox, (Yep! Even the Quik-clot for nose bleeds). Other first aid supplies (usually not found in the local drug store-but commonly found in survival catalogs) are covered (check with the FSA firm handling the reimbursements first!).

I got lots of Band-Aids, Celox, and Quik-clot this summer.

Oh yes, my former employer admitted (yes, I called both the FSA company and my employer at city hall to confirm), that due to IRS laws, a person can access the entire amount for that year, get reimbursed for all of it, and leave employment before the completion of employee payments are made-and no refund is required from the employee by either the former employer or the FSA company! This may prove useful for many people who have these plans and think that TEOTWAWKI is coming soon. [JWR Adds: But purchasing supplies without the intent to fully fund a FSA would be unconscionable.]

Also, real survival medical supplies can be obtained (again, check with the FSA first!) with the plan covering the expenses. (From your pre-tax dollars, of course!).

Food for thought. - L.F. R.

In September, 2008, Hurricane Ike--a Category 4 hurricane--pounded the Gulf Coast of the southern US. Some coastal communities like Crystal Beach no longer really exist. Inland, life was severely disrupted. For those of us on the South Coast hurricanes are a frequent reality. We were quite well prepared, but used the disruptions and dislocations as a test and opportunity to tune up our preparations.

1. Be ready to help others and to accept help We didn't need much during Ike, but the power went out before a neighbor finished boarding up his house. My 1 KW inverter, hooked up to his idling truck provide the juice for a Skilsaw and a few lights; allowing him to finish. Usually it is skills and not "stuff" that helps others and yourself. Besides strengthening a neighborly friendship, the number of damaged houses was probably reduced by one.

2. Keep your stuff squared away.. I repaired a few generators during and after Ike. I observed that every one suffering from lack of use; i.e. gasoline that resembled turpentine in the carburetor. People were at a complete loss to understand this. My daugher-in-law owned one of the generators that I repaired. She ignored my admonition to change the dirty oil ASAP and then once every 50 hours. Early in the next week it [ran out of oil and] threw a rod. She was in the dark for another week. Just a $2.99 quart of oil would have saved discomfort, ruined food, etc.
 
My portable genset, loaned to my daughter, was ready to go;  fresh oil, filters, valves set, exercised, load tested. It started on the first try. I came to check it and change it's oil as soon as it was safe to travel. The first thing that I did was turn it so the exhaust faced away from the house! She had placed it so that the starter rope was in a convenient spot. At least she had, like I had asked, chained and locked it to a foundation pier.

After every hurricane Darwin gets a few through accidental carbon monoxide poisoning. Don't join them. If you have a generator, get a carbon monoxide detector in case the wind changes and wafts exhaust in your windows.

Our own [permanently-installed] genset uses natural gas (a tri-fuel generator) which in the majority of cases is superior and much cheaper to operate. Over the 11 days that we didn't have power it consumed $100 worth of natural gas. I estimate that an equivalent amount of gasoline would have cost more than $300. I stopped it every 75 hours for oil and filter. If your genset doesn't have an hour meter, then add one. There are some inexpensive self contained hour meters made for lawn equipment that work very well and require no hard wiring. It's really the only practical way to keep track of operating time, without which, intelligent maintenance is impossible.

I noticed that many generators, some still in the box, on Craigslist following Hurricane Ike at bargain basement prices. I recommended to a friend he latch onto one of these and purchase a dual-fuel gasoline/natural gas carburetor] kit. Ants can profit from short-sighted grasshoppers.

It goes without saying have all your vehicles filled up and serviced so they can be depended upon with out much attention. Pay particular attention to cooling systems, oil changes, tire pressures, belts and battery terminals.

Develop a pre-event SOP: When we hear of a hurricane in the Gulf, we pick up loose items like branches that can be thrown by high winds and cause damage (aviators call this rubbish FOD), trim trees, check prescriptions, recharge everything rechargeable, treat the swimming pool with "shock" chlorine, get all the laundry and dishes done, get all the trash out for pickup, take “before” pictures, etc., etc., etc.

3. Have backups for your backups. The portable generator above was our backup to the natural gas-fueled genset. Then an inverter and ups. After that is a 100 Watt solar array I've been tinkering with to provide power for security lighting,etc.

My daughter spent up to two hours a day foraging gas, mostly waiting in lines. She found out that the problem with gasoline-fuel generators is gasoline! It's expensive, in short supply (when it is needed most), and it takes gas to go and get gas! Needless to say I rounded up the parts and the portable is now a dual fuel machine. Had it been able to use natural gas then she could have stayed home and been one less person waiting in line. And the machine still retains the capability to burn gasoline!

Since gasoline became hard to come by (it was impossible to get for a week after Rita) but diesel fuel was plentiful we did any necessary traveling in my old diesel Mercedes (which is EMP proof, BTW).

One important word on generators: Treat yours like it is the last one you'll ever get. Try and get a good one, I prefer either a Honda or Briggs Vangard engine. My Vangard portable is approx 10 years old and absolutely dependable. The difference is methodical maintenance. Keep the manuals, and read 'em ! Keep the oil changed, keep a fresh spark plug, keep spare [oil, air, and fuel] filters. Most importantly run it under load once a month. Unless it's new, pull off the cowling and clean all the dirt and dust from fins on the cylinder jug. Closely examine the starter rope, the fuel lines, et cetera. Replace 'em if they ain't perfect.

If you get a permanently installed generator carefully consider installing a manual transfer switch and other upgrades. With the exception of automatic "exercising" fully automatic generators these add a layer of complication and cost.

Don't store gasoline in the machine other than enough for one periodic test run. Develop a ritual on test runs: such as every other payday, or the last Saturday in the month, to reduce it to a ritual. I run mine monthly whilst cutting the back yard lawn. (The mower makes more noise.)

For storage between test runs: On portable gensets [with the ignition off, slowly ] pull the cord until you can feel that the engine is at the top of the compression stroke. This is where the engine feels like you are pulling it through a "detent". It puts the piston at the top of the bore and closes both valves. This protects the cylinder from moisture. If you store gasoline then use stabilizer, after six months burn it in your car and replace it. Few experiences are worse that trying to clean out a carburetor by a dim flashlight whilst being consumed alive by salt marsh mosquitoes. Trust me on this. BTW, I've had better results storing "winter" blended gas, since t has more light fractions and starts easier year round.

If you use gas cans; stick with metal, preferably safety cans. Plastics are slightly permeable and it will go bad much faster in a plastic can. On that note, [in humid climates] don’t keep spare spark plugs with the machine. This is because in outdoor storage the insulators can absorb moisture [and the metal parts can corrode]. Keep them inside or in a sealed can with some silica gel. An old one-quart paint can is ideal.

If you have a dual-fuel machine, then break the engine in on gasoline and make sure it operates properly on both fuels under load. Keep the necessary connectors for gas operation on the machine so that you don't have to go searching for that 3/8ths-inch pipe nipple with a flashlight.

Use high quality oils, and have enough. Don't forget to also store plenty of 2-stroke [fuel mixing] oil and chain oil if you intend to use a chainsaw. Maybe store some extra for your neighbors that are less prudent. I use Rotella brand synthetic oil and Wix brand filters, and have had good results with them.

Make sure you have enough oil, filters and plugs for at least two weeks (336 hours), or longer. Don't forget about your equipment after the crisis is over: There are valves to set, oil and plugs to change, etc. Even if you own two generators and have enough flashlights, automatic emergency lights, et cetera, things can, and may likely go wrong. Small children usually do not take kindly to being plunged into total darkness. Unless it is TEOTWAWKI, keep the candles in the cupboard, especially if there are small children about.

4. Double your plans for helping other people. Several relatives from coastal areas evacuated to our house (approximately 50 miles inland). I keep a 55 gallon drum of stabilized gasoline to fill up their cars to get them home. This was a lesson learned after the Rita evacuation cluster. How much food you will go through will surprise you. It finally dawned upon us that we almost always eat dinner (lunch to you Northerners) and sometimes breakfast away from home. So what we consumed whilst hunkered down seemed out of proportion.

We also sent some food home with people to hold them over. I was able to "lend" a retired neighbor enough generated power to keep his freezer, television, and fan going. He was genuinely happy. This also meant that he was one less person in line for ice, food, and so forth.

5. Keep a dial up phone line around, after 24 hours the cell phone tower generators started running out of propane, the cable modem (and the cable) went down with the power. Remember how to make that dial-up modem work.

If you're not a Ham radio operator, then find out where the local hams conduct their emergency nets, and listen on your shortwave radio (HF) or scanner (2-meter and 440 band) and you'll know a lot more that the local television news truck can find out.

If you have cable television, then keep a traditional antenna handy. If you live near a major market the local AM news station, then it is probably a good bet. Have a good UPS, plug the computer and the desk lamp into it. If you have a cordless phone, plug it into the UPS too. The UPS will take the "bumps" out of the generator's power; your computer will thank you. Make sure you test the UPS periodically by plugging in a 100 Watt lamp and pulling the plug on the UPS. I find I need to replace that UPS battery about every 2-to-3 years.

6. Plan for the guests. Have plenty of soap, have a small flashlight (preferably with rechargeable batteries) for each guest. Have things other than television to keep youngsters occupied. Try and get plenty of rest. You'll probably be plenty busy after you can poke your head out again. In this vein don't forget dishwashing supplies, laundry supplies, baby supplies, etc. If it's a predictable event such as a hurricane, have all the dishes and laundry done. before it hits.

A television in a room by itself will keep the racket contained from those who want to read, play games or just sleep. If you have the space, then a “quiet room” where  people can just rest, read, be alone, have some privacy or get a fussy to baby to sleep cuts down on contagious stress.

7. Make sure you are medically prepared. Have a rather complete first aid kit that includes a backboard and splinting materials. There will be plenty of cuts,scrapes, bruises, sunburns and sore muscles in the aftermath. Have Band-Aids, 4x4s, neosporin, peroxide etc. Have plenty of acid reducer and immodium on hand (stress and unfamiliar cooking), have at least two weeks of prescription drugs on hand [and preferably much more for any chronic health issues]. Have a good assortment of Tylenol, cold and sinus preparations, BenGay [muscle ointment], good  multivitamins, etc.

8.Be extra, extra, extra careful. You getting sick or more likely injured can really mess things up for everyone you have prepared for. Not to mention that the local fire/ambulance is probably already overtaxed. Be extremely careful handling fire and fuels. A lot of us are not entirely fluent in using chainsaws, small engines, fixing roofs, trimming trees and moving debris.[JWR Adds: safety equipment including heavy gloves, kevlar chainsaw safety chaps, and a combination safety helmet with face shield and muffs are absolute "musts"!] Don't get in a hurry unless there is a threat to life. Be hyper cautious, be very aware of your surroundings and things that can go wrong. Don’t toil alone. Make sure you have a clear path to beat a hasty retreat if things go wrong. Wear those gloves, safety glasses, boots and maybe a hard hat.

Don't overtax yourself. Getting a fallen the tree off of the roof today avails you little if it triggers a heart attack or heat stroke. Ask God's assistance and start over tomorrow.

Keep fire extinguishers near the gas generator, in the kitchen, and near the camp stove.

Avoid using candles at all costs, and absolutely prohibit smoking indoors for the duration. Have more than enough battery smoke detectors around.

9. Be ready to make temporary repairs.. The missing shingles, damaged windows, etc. Have some plywood, a few 2x4s, some Visqueen polyethylene sheeting, batting boards, duct tape, a tarp, some nails, and so forth around. If you happen to have a good cordless drill, then you'll find sheet rock and deck screws are very superior to nails. If you're squared away then you already have this stuff , but a neighbor might be in need, so buy extra.

Debris creates flat tires for quite some time after many events. Have a tire plug kit and a 12 VDC compressor in each vehicle. Repairs to structures, especially roof repairs guarantee nails in tires. Be ready for them..

Have everything rechargeable recharged. Make sure you have some traditional non-power tools, I have a handsaw that I've had for decades, a good bow saw, ax, maul, sledge and an old eggbeater style hand drill still get regular use.

10. If I had my choice of just one utility it would be running water. Fortunately where we reside is served by a well run rural utility district which has prepared well for hurricanes. Failing this, in addition to stored water I have a portable gas utility pump (Robin brand) that can pressurize our water system from our pool and has sufficient capacity for a fire line. The pool got a good jolt of shock a day before the storm hit.

11.Keep some cash money handy. For a few days [with no utility power] there were no functional ATMs, and no way to use credit or debit cards.

12. Keep a low profile. About a week after Ike a passerby indignantly asked "How'd you get your lights turned on?" This showed his ignorance on several levels. He seemed to think someone just had to flip a switch downtown and "shazam!" his lights are on. I couldn't make him understand there has to be an unbroken physical link between a power plant and consumer, this seemed to aggravate his obvious helplessness. Telling him that we had been making our own juice seemed to irritate him. I wonder who he voted for? People with this mindset (that the world owes them something) could be a genuine liability in a real catastrophe. (BTW on a news show during a piece about energy, I actually heard a lady refer to natural gas as “just another dirty fossil fuel”) and not be challenged on the facts. Little minds scare me. I think that the hyper-liberals would love to use the heavy hand of government to force the ants take care of the grasshoppers.  Keep a low profile. The best advice I ever heard on the subject (I believe it was Howard J. Ruff ) was to "keep your principles public and your actions private".

13. Keep a notebook, keep a record of what happened, but especially keep a record of preps you overlooked or screwed up, or stuff you ran out of, or skills that need to be added or honed. That's where most of the preceding information came from! Also keep tabs on what's scarce after an event. Gas was scarce, but diesel plentiful after Rita. In contrast, after Ike there was plenty of fuel, but few operating stations due to lack of power. (There was a "mandatory evacuation" during Rita which turned out to be a fatal traffic jam for a few poor souls which quickly emptied the filling station tanks.) Out our way the local Wal-Mart made a heroic effort and opened up on locally-generated power, two days after Ike. The sheriff’s department was there to “maintain order”. (Let’s just say that they actually wear brown shirts here.). This event was a lifetime opportunity to study the varied behaviors of people under stress.

There were plenty of canned goods and auto supplies. But fresh fruits and veggies were a little thin, no meat due to lack of refrigeration for a few days, batteries, Coleman fuel, trash bags, paper plates, disposable diapers, formula, and nails evaporated. The pharmacy was closed.

Even with the numerous mistakes we made, we were able to stay safe, secure and comfortable and help others while "victims" were standing or idling their car engines in lines. It was an opportunity to try things out under more or less controlled conditions. WTSHTF there will not be controlled conditions!

Mr. Rawles,
I have a small follow up question/suggestion to your response regarding commercial storage spaces. In my area, I have a solid 4-to-6 hour drive in good conditions to get to my safety location from my greater metropolitan area home. After having to do this drive last year with the chaos of an incoming Hurricane, I decided to take advantage of your "Doug Carlton" suggestion from your novel "Patriots". I decided to rent a small storage unit (5'x5') at what I considered the half way point between my city and my objective location. I pay $20 per month to store a small cache which consists of 20 gallons of stabilized gasoline (ventilated), 7 days of freeze dried food, and bottled drinking water. All in all, it consists of about $100 in supplies.

I do not consider this a long term solution, but at $20 a month it is an insurance policy that almost guarantees I will not have to be walking to my retreat. I'm sure you can find many testimonials online from people who had to evacuate Houston and Brownsville last year due to increased Hurricane activity in the Gulf. Many places were completely sold out of gasoline, food and water with in the first six hours of evacuation activities.

Do you consider this a good stop gap solution when it comes to utilizing self-store units? I understand that this is no excuse for procrastination or apathy. I am not diluting myself into thinking it has long term security for more than 24-to-48 hours of storage pending a catastrophic event or break down of civil service. Thank you for your time and advice. - Matt in Texas

Mr. Rawles,
I am the resident manager of a small self storage facility, and have been for over seven years. And yes I am a prepper and a woman.

Among my tenants I can count about a dozen or so who are also preppers. They consider this a safe place to store their preps while they are finding land to move to. I am always happy when one comes in to give notice that they are moving to the country (as they say).

We (my staff of two, and I) have a written plan in case of a situation and after practicing it and working out the bugs; we can lock this place down in less than five minutes. If I am here by myself it takes about 7 minutes to secure the premises and have my weapon and clipboard in hand. I realize that my tenants will want to come get their possessions as quickly as possible and that is part of our security set up, thus the clipboard with tenant info.

If any of your readers are thinking about storing their goods at a self storage facility here are some suggestions to make sure their items are secure.

1. Check out the location: in person and check with the local police force to see if the facility has had break-ins.
2. Is the property well lit and well fenced? (first step in security)
3. Only rent where there is a resident manager (a layer of security)
4. Gated with an electronic gate and limited hours. 24 hour facilities have more break-ins than those with limited hours. Electronic gates usually record the gate activity. (more security)
5. Is there video cameras recording the activity on the property? (security again)
6. Talk to the manager and staff – get to know them – you can do this without telling them what you are storing. You would be surprised how many people will tell you exactly what they are storing.
7. Does the staff make themselves present on the property?
8. Is the facility clean and well-maintained?
9. What types of locks are on the doors? Round locks for which only you hold the keys to are the best. Are the empty units locked also? (this is a sign that manage takes security seriously) Is there an extra lock on the door? Ask the management why. Most facility requires only one lock so they can lock out a tenant that doesn’t pay their rent.
10. Speaking of rent: Do you pay with credit card or can you set up a continuous pay with your bank or can you pay in advance with the Self Storage sending you an invoice the month you prepaid is up?
11. Read the rental agreement and understand it.
12. Check on your goods frequently.
13. Remember most self storage facilities do not allow food stored in any type of container that a four-legged critter could chew through. Canned goods, and round plastic food grade buckets are good. Make sure when storing food or clothing that you have clean hands. Residue of that hamburger you ate on the way will leave traces that will attract that four-legged critter.
14. Store in Rubbermaid plastic totes, well labeled on all sides including the top and bottom.
15. As far as extreme temperatures; yes it can happen, but if the units are well insulated you should not have any more of a problem than storing at home. You can do the insulation yourself by choosing the containers you store in.
16. Pallets are a great idea and I whole heartily recommend them for everyone.
17. If you don’t want people to know that you are storing your preps, choose totes and containers that will not give you away.

Mr. Rawles, thank you for being a guiding light for so many of us. You and your family are in my prayers. Blessing to you and yours. - N.J.

JWR,
You have a great site, I watch it carefully.

In the recent article on storage spaces you answered a question about storage units being used to keep your food for a time. I run over 3,000 units of storage in a climate that has burning heat and freezing cold, and the answer to this problem is: climate controlled units. For only a few dollars more per month you might be able to find a unit in a climate controlled space. There temperatures will usually be held somewhere between 60 and 80 degrees. Perfect for storing food. These units are less likely to be broken into as they are interior and usually have higher levels of security covering them.

The drawback is that still just an emerging market, and hence climate-controlled units are not available in may rural areas. However, they are much more common the past few years. I just added climate control to a facility right here and though the facility in an area that is mostly farmer’s fields. I also know that the little town of Haley, Idaho has a storage company with climate controlled space. I also know of climate controlled storage scattered [in small numbers] across across Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Readers might not be able to find one right where they are going, but for the general public’s knowledge – climate control is out there and becoming more available all the time

As for losing your stuff for non-payment, yes it happens – all the time. I am constantly amazed at the valuables that people lose just because they didn’t pay their bill. But any reputable storage site is going to offer automatic payment options, either by credit card or checking withdrawals. That can make life much easier.

Yes, plan for possible water damage, and a possible rodent visit. Both are easy to handle. And lastly have some spare keys made for your lock. That one issue has tripped up too many people too many times. Thanks, - Luke H.

JWR Replies: I wholeheartedly agree about spare keys! In addition to the key that you keep on your daily-carry key ring, put one in each of your main bug-out bags, and one in the glove box of each of your vehicles! Someday, you might have to hurriedly depart for your retreat in unusual circumstances.

I find it surprising that I'm now getting inquiries from readers, asking if "we've reached bottom" in the current economic recession, and asking if the time has come to start buying stocks or residential real estate. It seems that the talking heads of mainstream media are using some sort of voodoo. How can anyone think that we've hit bottom, and an economic recovery is in progress? To dispel the myths from the CNBC Cheering Section, please consider the following. (And note that I've provided references for each assertion, just so you know that I'm not talking out of my camouflage hat.):

1. A broken global credit market that has not fully recovered. See: After Lehman, U.S. firms adjust to new face of credit
2. Lack of transparency in Mortgage-Backed Securities and other re-packaged debt instruments. See: Geithner Blames Lack of Transparency for OTC Derivatives Hit on Market.
3. The increasing Federal debt, which is growing at an unprecedented rate. See: The National Debt Clock.
4. Mountains of consumer and corporate debt. See: Observations on the US Debt.
5. The Federal budget deficit. See: Federal Deficit Hits All-Time High of $1.42 Trillion.
6. Ever-expanding bailouts. (I call this The MOAB.) See: As More Companies Seek Aid, 'Where Do You Stop?'
7. Monetization of the National Debt. See: Fed Could Expand MBS Purchases. (Can you spell Oroborus?):
8. The destruction of the American consumer economy. (It had been artificially credit-driven). See: A Year After The Crisis, The Consumer Economy Is Dead.
9. Chronic unemployment, possibly much higher than officially reported. See: Alternate Data at ShadowStats.
10. More than $500 Billion USD in hedge funds that have borrowed short and lent long. See: Assets invested in hedge funds increase by $100bn
11. A double wave of residential mortgage rate resets. See: this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets.
12. Continued down-ratcheting of house prices. See: Housing Prices Will Continue to Fall, Especially in California
13. The under-reported "shadow inventory" of foreclosed houses. See: The "Shadow" Foreclosure Inventory
14. The very likely collapse of commercial real estate ("the other shoe to drop".) See: Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
15. A huge crisis lurking in over-the-counter derivatives. See my analysis published in 2006 and the dozens of articles on the Derivative Dribble Blog.
16. Under-funded pensions. See: Almost half of top unions have under funded pension plans.
17. A coming wave of municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures. See: The Failure of Leveraged Municipal Bond Hedge Funds.
18. Increasing numbers of bank failures. See: FDIC: Bank Failures to Cost Around $100 Billion.
19. Insurance company collapses--some, like AIG, were foolish enough to insure more than a trillion dollars in derivative contracts. See: AIG: Is the Risk Systemic?
20. Worsening state, county, and city budget crises. See: State prepares for shutdown as budget deadline looms, and this article from a liberal site: Predicting Worse Ahead from America's Economic Crisis.
21. Loss of faith in the US Dollar, on the FOREX. See: Dollar's reserve currency status in focus as G-7 finance ministers meet.
22. The coming mass currency inflation, following some asset deflation. See: Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?
    

Back in the Fall of 2008, I started hearing from consulting clients with notes of fear in their voices. They realized that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they could not properly isolate and articulate the problem. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that they sensed is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate.

America will continue in recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But the recession that began in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone.

The Federal governments's debt, just by itself is cause for concern. As an old gunsmithing friend mine, the late Chuck Brumley, was fond of saying: “If your outgo exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall." Several decades of profligate spending by the US Congress are finally starting to take their toll. Just because their friend Helicopter Ben has a high-speed printing press does mean that they can continue to spend money like drunken sailors in definitely. (On second thought, I should apologize for impugning the reputation of drunken sailors. They are actually much more conservative with their funds than congressmen.)

Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures.

Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.)

The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse.

"Big Picture" Implications

As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend long, and effectively use debt compounded upon debt.

Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDSes). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so most derivatives contract holders are only just now experiencing their first major recession. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not yet experienced a full scale "blow up" of derivatives, but I predict that if and when it happens, it will be spectacular. The pinch in CDSes (a form of derivative contract) in 2008 was just a faint foreshadowing of what we'd experience in a a full-blown derivatives collapse.

The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on the street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse in the summer of 2008, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama.

The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even governments will go under as this tumult plays out. (Take note of the recent vote of no confidence in Latvia.) The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late 1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will inevitably result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.)

Mitigating the Risks

Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends and /or relatives that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.)

Since additional large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business.

In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life.

I am unable to make my home self-sustaining.  So, unfortunately, my family will probably become refugees in a true SHTF scenario.  My focus presently is in becoming desirable refugees rather than shunned refugees.  The key is minimizing any negative impact (extra logistics of all sorts) and maximizing any positive impact (filling in weak spots) to someone that is geographically fortuitous.  I was challenged to figure out how a small family could best become a wanted commodity when food is tight and security isn’t. I determined the key for us was that everything carried needed to be dense in value. Density equals mass divided by volume. In our case, mass would be the battered value of the item; volume was limited by the size of our packs. We can’t carry enough bulk food, but we can carry items that will have an excellent post-SHTF (bartered) value, an example would be trading  batteries for an illuminated-reticle or starlight scope in exchange for food.  Keeping our packs small (but danged heavy) will give us an additional advantage if we need to make a small camp.

Skill sets are valuable.  I am fortunate to have become a physician.  Talk about (trading) food for thought! I am trained in Internal Medicine, so much of my skill set depends on a working infrastructure, that is, availability of medications, imaging (X-rays, CT, MRIs and the like) which will be useless once the grid goes down.  To make up for that, I have been certified in ATLS (Advanced Trauma Life Support) and ACLS (Advanced Cardiac Life Support), the former being far more useful in extended emergencies.  Further, I have also trained in mass casualty scenarios.  I have been stashing typically needed and well tolerated medications in a FIFO set-up in my home, from antibiotics to blood pressure pills.  In a legally gray area, I have some potent narcotics (barter/ransom/medical use). I also have a good stock of scalpels, retractors, Celox and the like to maximize my worth. The first lives my first aid kit may save might be my family’s. My skill set will be in demand, and I hope with the other positives below, worth enough to take in extra mouths to feed. But I recognize, perhaps better than non-medical people, that the quality of medical care will quickly revert to the level practiced before the advent of antibiotics and other modern pharmaceuticals. Think Civil War or WWI where a gut-shot was a death-sentence.  Garlic may have some ant- microbial properties, but it pales compared to a few doses of modern antibiotics.  Being a doctor in a SHTF scenario may be like being a sailor in the middle of a desert: lots of knowledge but only able to apply a small fraction of it.

My wife is an educator and now teaches special needs kids.  If the Collapse is a bad one, kids will still need to learn, and there is more to teaching than just putting material in front of kids, as anyone that homeschools will agree.

Those are our special skill sets. You can never have enough skill sets, and we plan to further develop our skills.

Our two children are too young to be useful for anything except giving us joy, . And dirty laundry.

We have been buying weapons in standard calibers – 45 ACP, 5.56, and 22LR.  I have given myself the luxury of owning a PS90. I rationalized the purchase by the fact that it supports a 50 round magazine of 5.7 rounds and bridges the gap between a pistol and a longer rifle. In reality, it looks really cool. Four mags on my hip (and one in the rifle) gives me 250 rounds. In an urban/suburban location, which will be the most difficult part of our journey, I do not see a need to shoot over 100 m. Most action will likely be under that, and that is the niche for the PS90. Additionally, it’s bullpup design keeps it short and maneuverable in a vehicle without sacrificing accuracy (it has a 16 inch barrel).  More importantly, we have packed way about 150 pounds worth of ammo in our G.O.O.D .bags and another 70 lbs in our BOB’s. We have so far two extra ARs and three Glocks for barter/trade. We don’t have a weapon for the 22LR, but either we will (Ruger’s 10/22) or it’s for barter. Our bags are meant to carry the lead at the sacrifice of food. It may be easier to barter rounds (heavy but small) for food (light but large).  If we do make to the hinterlands, having our ammo added to the favorably situated ‘castle’ will be a bonus.  My wife and I both shoot accurately to 200 m, and well enough at 300 - 400 m to keep the philistines away. We continue to practice our shooting skills by range time and class time. We will get far.

I’ve begun a ‘collection’ of survival knives and high quality folders by buying two at a time (again, two is one, and one is none).  They will be needed en route and, like ammo, possess an excellent weight to bartered value.  My guess is that knives will lost or broken and there will be a demand for them.  In the same category, are redundant Katadyn water filters kits.  Extras were purchased because they are small and will barter well. Bolt cutters were bought because they will be useful traveling and also in barter. Bic lighters, assorted tiny screws for spectacles with jeweler screwdrivers , rechargeable CR123 and AA batteries, extra Gerber multitools, quality compasses, 550 cord, several small but bright flashlights (Fenix brand – 1 or 2 CR123 batteries and they pump out over 180 lumen and fit on a keychain or a rifle), two Old Testaments, and 2 American flags fill the small spaces in the gear.  We keep thinking on how to improve our “stock” and get more bang for the buck with ‘value dense ‘ items. I thought of the extra eye-glass screws after having my own come apart just as I got to work and spent a miserable day squinting.  Someone missing their glasses won’t function at near capacity and the eye glass screw may be the equivalent of the nail that caused a horse to be lost, then a rider to be lost etc.

We also have our own gear and clothing, using the layer approach with an outer hardshell in camouflage.  We both have packed two pair of extra boots, either for the long haul or barter.

These items get thrown into the trunk along with our Camelbaks, and our mountain bikes (with extra tubes and tires) go on top supporting a few jerry cans of gasoline lashed between them.  If we can’t get to a refuge with available gas or the roads become impassable, then we load the bikes up and ride/walk until we are welcomed.

If we’re lucky, the Collapse will wait until we can move to a more geographically desirable location and all these purchases will remain useful while we focus on new needs (stored food, long term water and power and etc). If not,  I have improvised a plan that adapts to our situation and hopefully will change our refugee status to a valued team-member.

This is written in part because there has been no view from the prepared refugees.  There may be more preppers without a safe haven than those able to develop a safe haven, not because of any deficit or laziness on their part, but because of reality.  In addition, all preppers cannot move to a sparsely populated area in the US for if they did (imagine merely 10% of NYC, LA, and DC doing so during by the end Obama’s administration), those areas would no longer be sparsely populated! So think of what you can carry that can be bartered for things you can’t carry and that will make you into a valuable  team member.

I have worked hard to become a doctor (and perhaps even harder to remain a doctor is this crazed system) and to be able to give charity rather than receive it.  If I am to receive the charity of shelter from someone who is able to do so, I will be sure that we do more than just pull on own weight.  We will add security, in the short and long haul.

So if TEOTWAWKI happens, keep a lookout for strangers who may have much to offer. But for the grace of God, it might have been you unable to live in a geographically desirable area and looking to add to an established sanctuary.

Mr. Editor:
Just a quick note to follow-up regarding preparations for Eyesight and Hearing. I checked into lasik and contacts long ago (I am slightly near-sighted – too many hours staring into cameras and computers I guess). Although Lasik advances have come a long way, please be sure you talk to your eye surgeon at length before you commit to this serious expense. If you are near-sighted, a successful lasik procedure will improve your long-distance vision, but may impede your “up close” vision. I talked with my eye doctor at length about this, and after many questions he acknowledged that in many cases, near-sighted people would require reading glasses in as little as 3-5 years.

Also, remember that as a person gets older, the eye muscles simply weaken, which is why many people need reading glasses by their mid-40s. For those of you who were genetically lucky enough to not need glasses, oh how I envy you! (Forgive me Lord!) For those of us who do need glasses, contacts are a nice thing. Remember that eye solutions do have expiration dates and never sleep with your contacts in because it can lead to eye infections. Make sure your hands are “hospital surgery clean” (HSC) when you place the contacts in your eyes. A post-TEOTWAWKI eye infection is not something you want to deal with.

If there are any ophthalmologists reading, I’d be interested in hearing from you about eye-related injuries and treatments, etc. For example, I imagine there will be a lot of people chopping wood without wearing safety glasses who end up with one of nature’s toothpicks embedded in their eye.

As a side note, I recommend going to Costco and picking up extra pairs of reading glasses. Buy several different strengths, including some that “stronger” than what you currently need. They are cheap, but somewhat durable. Even if you don’t need them now, someone else may. - Jake G.

Once you realize the importance of being prepared for coming hard times, you may ask yourself, “How can I possibly prepare for any scenario?  This is an insurmountable undertaking.”  The more you ponder this, the more the reality of this seems to be confirmed.  Let not your heart be troubled.  As with almost any endeavor, the road to success begins with the first step and continues one step at a time.  Consistent, prioritized, careful preparation over a period of time, preparation built around what your personal situation (budget, job, family, medical needs, etc.) will allow, can get you in a position in relatively short order to weather the scenarios that are most likely to occur.  The mere fact that you have considered the possibilities of what may lay ahead can very quickly put you ahead of the vast majority of the population.

Consider the possible scenarios whereby preparedness would prove to be literally a lifesaver.  These scenarios range from very geographically localized events, either natural or man-made, to the proverbial TEOTWAWKI.  The likelihood any of these events occurring generally becomes decreasing likely in a given time frame as the geographical scope and severity of the event increases.  Therefore the occurrence of a total multi-generational societal collapse, requiring the maximum amount of preparation is far less likely to occur over the next year or two or five than relatively local, relatively short term events such as tornados, hurricanes or floods, or even some major terrorist events, all requiring far less preparation than TEOTWAWKI situation previously mentioned.  This should be considered in the early stages of preparation as priorities for investment are made.

Therefore, your preparation should follow a well planned, measured, prioritized process that enables you to be positioned to go through the most likely scenarios first followed by progressively increasing severe scenarios.  Ongoing preparation will build on the past.  No effort goes wasted.  This should be encouraging to the beginning prepper.

How should you start?  Start with a careful analysis of the most likely localized events that may occur in your area or region, or events from another region that may impact your local area (remember passenger air service after 9/11).  Shutdown of transportation systems, especially trucking and rail should be of paramount concern.  What is the probable time frame that these events may cause you to rely on your own resources?  Make a list of all the items and quantities you will need to get through that period of time.  This constitutes the Phase I physical resources preparation plan.

Prioritize the list and within the constraints of your budget begin to acquire the items you have listed.  Keeping an Excel spreadsheet makes this task much easier and allows you to see at a glance exactly how much physical resource preparation you have achieved, how much you still need, the value of those resources, the cost to complete your initial Phase I purchases, etc.  Your spreadsheet should include rows listing each item with columns for:

• Priority
• Category or subcategory
• Quantity Needed (for the given preparation Phase)
• Quantity on Hand
• Difference Needed vs. On-Hand (Calculated Value)
• Cost Each
• Acquisition Cost (Calculated Value)
• On Hand Value (Calculated Value)
• Total Value (Calculated Value)
• Percent Complete for the Item (Calculated Value) – you can color code this Red/Yellow/Green for and at a glance dashboard view
• Subtotals as you feel appropriate for each Category or Sub-Category

In the same way you used Excel to track your Phase I resources preparation status, use your spreadsheet to list categories, sub-categories, items and quantities that you wish to acquire for future Phases, up to and including a Phase for TEOTWAWKI.  This allows you to systematically build your level of preparedness a Phase at a time.  As you start with Phase I, you can also see how well you are gearing up for future Phases as well.  Remember, on-hand quantities, pricing, etc, can carry from the Phase I sheet to the Phase II through Phase “n” sheets so redundant data entry isn’t required!  Don’t forget to make hard copies of your files and save them in a three ring binder.

Additional Tips for getting started.

So you have determined what you need to acquire and have begun to do so.  But prepping isn’t just about acquiring tangible goods. 

It is also about skills.  It is especially about skills.  Even what I have called “Phase I” preparation should include training in the plan.  A diversity of skills within your group (which may start out as just your family) is important.  Take advantage of any relevant training available to you at low or no cost.  Programs available in many communities include CERT, First Aid, CPR and similar.  Use these opportunities to increase your skill base.  These are great skills to have in normal times and are great skills to build upon.  Even these basic courses could prove to literally be lifesavers in “normal” as well as tougher times.

Learn to garden.  Even if you don’t have a retreat with the space, perfect soil, and water supply, you should garden on a smaller scale in your city or suburban back yard.  This will give you a head start in knowledge and experience (i.e., harvesting and saving seeds for future years) when you are able to move to that retreat location.  Plus, fresh garden vegetables are healthier and taste so much better than what you purchase from the store, especially if the store bought vegetables are poured from a can!  Nothing beats enjoying a hand picked, vine ripe tomato fresh from the garden (and I confess, I take the salt shaker out back with me!).

Put away the foods you eat today.  Nitrogen packed survival foods are expensive and likely should and may be a part of your plan.  However, many foods that you eat today can be more immediately utilized to kick start your storage pantry at moderate cost while you save for other more expensive longer term options.  You can buy or easily build out of plywood a FIFO rotation canned goods rack, set it in a pantry or closet and start loading it up today with the foods you already eat.  This accumulation can be done for little perceived cost if done over time.  Simply buy a little extra of what you already purchase each time you are at the store.  You will be amazed at how quickly you can build up a 30, 60, 90 day supply of canned goods that will never go bad because they are what you currently eat so you rotate them via the FIFO system into your daily meals.  Canned vegetables, meats, soups, fruits and sauces can all be stored in this simple way.  All at very moderate expense.

Learn about your firearms.  Practice with them as much as you can afford to.  Get professional instruction.  Basic courses for novices are available at moderate expense.  There are NRA sanctioned courses for basic safety, handling and shooting skills.  Work toward completion of an NRA course or equivalent in self defense in the home and self defense outside the home.   If you are or once you get to be more advanced, get even more advanced training.  If your budget doesn’t initially allow this, do the best you can but plan for more advanced tactical training in a future Phase.  The key now is to get what you can afford and build on that.  Practice, practice, practice.

Don’t think you must necessarily purchase a complete set of new firearms right out of the gate for your survival armory.  Conventional wisdom suggests .45 ACP pistols for carry, .308/7.62 NATO semi-autos for your MBR (with expensive red-dot optics), a good .308 bolt action for long range and / or large game hunting, and perhaps a more expensive shotgun than you have budget for.  If you already have 9mm pistols, that AR-15 you bought a few years ago “because you wanted one”, the scoped .303 you inherited from Dad and an old but functional Remington 870 Express in 12 gauge, you are good to go for now, as a beginner prepper.  Make sure that adequate ammunition is part of your plan, but with this or a similar adequate set of calibers and shotgun you are set for your initial Phases of preparation.  Early on, food, water, medical supplies and the like are likely a higher priority than new firearms.  You can upgrade in a future Phase.  Focus on firearms training at this stage.  It’s about prioritization.  Besides, later phases prepare for scenarios that will be more likely to require the capabilities of upgraded firearms.

A basic principle.  Standardize.  If you pick .45ACP for your personal carry weapon, it is advantages for all members of your group to do the same.  The same principle applies for your MBR, self defense and hunting shotguns, etc.  Ammunition and magazine plans will appreciate this.  Try to standardize on 1 or 2 battery types for your battery operated devices.  Or more correctly standardize by using devices requiring only 1 or 2 battery types.  You don’t want to have to store and/or maintain charges on AA, AAA, CR123, C, D, N and CR2032 batteries, when you could be more efficient and effective with perhaps using only AA batteries.  This principle applies to anything that you have more than one of.  Radios, flashlights, etc.  Remember the axiom, two is one and one is none.  Standardization means simplicity, efficiency, spares.  There may be exceptions, but take standardization into consideration when you develop or modify your plan.  Initially, you may have to have a wider assortment of devices depending on the devices you currently have, but have a strategy to standardize.

Plan to read or more correctly, to learn by reading.  Whenever you come across a useful article, print it out and save it in a three ring binder with other useful articles you have saved.  Even if it is something you can’t purchase or do or use until a future Phase, save it now and add it to the plan now.  There is an incredible amount of useful information in SurvivalBlog.com.  Read and save (and purchase through Jim’s site when you decide to purchase goods from one of his advertisers).  Jim helps us so we should help him where we can.

If you have relatives or friends in a rural location that you can get too and who are willing to take you in during appropriate events, have a G.O.O.D. plan.  This includes hard copy maps with routes and alternate routes.  Practice all routes before the big day.  Practice your load out plan, again, prior to the big day.  Search SurvivalBlog.com for loads of information on G.O.O.D.  There are many concerns related to evacuation in certain scenarios.  Educate yourself and make educated decisions.

This article is the tip of the iceberg with regards to beginning prepping, but hopefully it has a few pointers to get you thinking and to get you started and is an encouragement that this can be done, that you can successfully prepare for the future.  You don’t have to purchase all nitrogen packed long shelf life survival foods or the perfect arsenal with one of every conceivable firearm type for every circumstance (in fact limiting (standardizing) models and calibers has some clear advantages) in order to successfully prepare for the likeliest of scenarios.  Remember, methodical, prioritized preparing is the way to go for those of us on a budget.  Start small, build your knowledge base, supplies and skills, and very soon you will be in the enviable position of weathering the most likely calamities to occur in the next few years.   If you continue this methodical, ongoing process, you will continue to improve your situation and continue to put your self in a position to weather increasingly more severe and longer lasting scenarios.  The important thing for those on a budget is not to wish you could do it all now by immediately trading cash for all the tangibles and training you need, but to start and to start now and to consistently build to our plan as we can afford to do so.

Jim,
First of all I am glad your newest book "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It" is selling very well. It is a great book and I think just about everyone could benefit from reading it and having a copy on the shelf to reference. Anyway my question is about firearms spare parts. I have stashed a good amount of cash to purchase spare parts for my essential firearms and am not sure what to get. Thanks to a previous post here I have a a list for the AR platform. I am however just about clueless for the Remington 870, the Glock 9mm and the M1911. I have done some looking online and have seen lists here or there which are completely different from each other. I know you use the Remington 870 and the 1911 at the Rawles Ranch so I imagine you have thought those over a little bit. Also any thoughts you or your readers have about spare parts for the Glock platform would be highly appreciated.

Thank you very much for your time and effort. - TheOtherRyan (Co-editor of Total Survivalist Libertarian Rantfest)

JWR Replies: For some suggested spare parts to keep on hand, see these articles in the SurvivalBlog archives and at my static pages:

• My FAQs on magazines (M14/M1A, M16/AR-15, FAL, M1911, and M1 Carbine.) Magazines are often the most crucial spares. Readers are urged to get a good education before shopping for spare mags. Don't waste your money on unreliable aftermarket junk!)
  
• Lists of my recommended spare parts for AR-15s/M4s, Ruger 10/.22 rifles, M1911s and Clones, and Winchester Model 1894s
• Discussion of real world M1911, Glock, and XD parts failures, by a firearms instructor
• Discussion of Mini-14s
• Discussion of M1911 pistols spare magazines
• Brief discussion of Glocks spares, and Glock spare parts vendors
• Recommendations on Glock spares, from a legendary senior gunsmith
  
• Brief mention of FN-FAL spares and parts vendors
• Discussion of G3, M14, FAL, and L1A1 parts sets
• More discussion of AR-15/M4 spares
• A list of recommended spare parts sources (Also includes a list of some likely-to-fail AR-15/M4 parts)

Beyond those references, you should talk with specialist gunsmiths that are well-experienced with your particular models. Be sure to ask them not only about high breakage parts, but also high loss parts. Some parts under spring pressure tend to go flying across the room, during disassembly. Have you ever spent a half hour with a magnet, trolling through shag carpet in the search for a tiny, errant spring detent? I have!

In closing, I should remind readers to take full advantage of the SurvivalBlog archives, via the "Search Posts on SurvivalBlog:" box at the top of the right hand bar. If your question is technical, then odds are you can quickly find the answer in the more than 7,600 archived posts. They are all available free of charge.

Mr. Rawles,
My family and I are facing some challenges in our pursuit to become prepared. First off, a little background on our situation. I'm a 12-year Air Force veteran currently stationed in Montana. My wife also works full-time. We have about $60,000 in debt between credit cards and two auto loans. We have no problems paying our bills and our credit is excellent. It's just that we don't have a ton of extra money to begin our grand survival scheme. We've talked about all the different routes about living debt free and also purchasing the right vehicles, retreat and equipment that we feel we would need.

Option #1 - The Air Force pays large bonuses for certain career fields if you reenlist into that career field. I'm interested in one that will pay me a minimum $50,000 ($25.000 on signing, the rest spread out over the length of my reenlistment.) We talked about paying off one auto loan and our credit cards with the up-front $25,000. This would free up about $500/month which we would probably put towards our bigger auto loan. Since the first auto loan would be paid off, we can then sell that car and buy a less expensive '73-'86 Chevy/GMC Blazer or Suburban (gas). That would take care of survival vehicle #1. The other $25,000 over the following years would be used to pay down our other vehicle to where we can pay off or even break even so we can purchase survival vehicle #2---1994-1997 Dodge Ram 2500 4x4 5.9L Cummins diesel. If we go for this option, most if not all of our debt will be gone and we'll have about $1,000/month to spend on fortifying our equipment, supplies et cetera. The problem with this option is we won't be too prepared if something were to happen in the next 4-to-5 years or so.

Option #2 - Let's assume that I still have the same bonus as listed above. I retire in eight years and would like to have a little piece of land to go to--TEOTWAWKI or not. We plan on 10+ acres somewhere in north central Idaho (Orofino/Pierce/Deary--that area). Well, I could take the $25,000 up front bonus and put it down on a piece of land. We don't plan on spending over $80,000, so we can figure on a payment of around $300-$600/month. Then, when I retire, I'll move the family up there and build a house with a mini-farm. Of course, if I went this route I would still have a lot of debt.

Option #3 - Perhaps I should plan for more immediate needs. My family has little of the proper equipment/supplies that we would need. Shoot, we don't even have a Bug-Out Bag.. I've considered using that bonus money (or a portion) to build up in the equipment area and forego paying any additional to debt (after all, if TEOTWAWKI happens in the near future, debt will be the least of our problems).

So, this is the dilemma that I am faced with. I know my end goal a (self sustaining mini-farm in Idaho, while still receiving a pension and being debt free). Getting there is the hard part. The costs of my current debt, state of provisions, buying land, building on the land, vehicles, alternative power for the retreat will probably cost anywhere from $200,000-$500,000 when it's all said and done. I think the smart choice is putting as much money as possible towards debt and getting that out of the way, but at the same time making small provisions for WTSHTF. Perhaps I've missed something? - Dan W.

JWR Replies: For anyone that might be laid off, debt can be a real killer in the next few years. I still predict a at least another 18 months of deflation to be followed by sharp inflation. In deflationary times, having any debt load would be disastrous if income were interrupted due to a layoff. Granted, military service is a unique situation, but my general advice is to pay down debts, and avoid taking on any new debt. The situation in the immediate future will resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s, where cash was king, and the few people that had jobs fared well, but those that were unemployed suffered badly. So my advice is to take Option #1: Pay off one auto loan and your credit cards with the $25,000 re-up bonus. Not only will it remove the stress of potential loss of income, but it will eliminate interest payments, which are a non-productive drain on your resources. Then make your preparations gradually, using your expendable income, without incurring any new debt. If need be, downgrade one of your vehicles to an older model that won't require a car loan. That will free up even more cash each month.

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I have a few suggestions to add to the recent article about survival and preparedness for diabetics, particularly type 1 diabetics. I've had type 1 diabetes for 13 years and one of the few things I learned pretty quickly is that the power will go out and even if the bottle of insulin is unopened, temperatures higher than 40 degrees Fahrenheit for a long period of time will degrade the activity of the insulin. This will require a much higher dose than what would otherwise be necessary if the insulin is stored properly, if the insulin works at all. Some of the newer insulins will not survive more than a month at room temperature, and less if they're opened.

A few other suggestions on diabetes survival:
1. Be familiar with how to use all types of insulin, because there would not be any guarantee of a specific insulin type being available for use in an emergency situation. Nor would there likely be doctors and nurses familiar with anything other than humulin Regular and NPH (which are considered to be "old" insulins and are more familiar to those who went to medical school twenty years ago.) Be prepared to revert back to "feeding the insulin", meaning taking a rigid schedule of two or three injections daily and eating evenly spaced meals of specific amounts of carbohydrate, instead of eating various amounts at different times of day and using several injections of the newer, fast insulins to cover. Those insulins may not be available, and so a "normal" diet would be out of the question.
2. Know how much insulin you need, and how to measure this amount in any type of syringe. Like before, insulin syringes with .5 unit/1unit/2 unit measure may not be widely available.
3. If you do not immediately have insulin available, try to keep in mind what was done prior to its invention in the 1920s, starvation. They knew that carbohydrate seemed to make diabetes worse, and eating large amounts of carbohydrate increased the amount of sugar in the urine. So to prevent this, carbohydrates were restricted. It's much like a very strict form of the Atkins diet, but even protein is reduced to small amounts, because protein is eventually converted to glucose. There are books from the 1900s on recipes and menus to use to starve diabetic patients, as well as some of the "old-fashioned" methods of screening for glucose in the urine and blood, one good book is freely available on the gutenberg online library web site called The Starvation Treatment of Diabetes. Starvation would not be a viable long-term option because of the obvious end result, but would serve some for a short period of time until insulin becomes available to them. It would kill a diabetic faster, however, to continue to eat normally without insulin.

I have a 6 month stockpile of diabetes supplies, as well as translations of my current insulin regimen using different types of insulins and a plan on how to follow a starvation diet. For 1 month on a standard two injections per day of Regular and NPH insulin, testing urine glucose twice or three times per day and assuming blood glucose meters are unavailable, one would need:
2 bottles of Keto-Diastix strips (measures glucose and ketones in the urine; once opened, a bottle will last 3 months)
1 box of U100 insulin syringes (100 syringes - 60 syringes used in one month = 40 syringe surplus)
1 box of 100 alcohol swabs
1 or 2 bottles of Regular insulin
1 or 2 bottles of NPH insulin
4 bottles of 50ct glucose tablets (which would likely not be completely used)
2 16 oz bottles of light corn syrup (a very efficient method for reversing hypoglycemia/low blood sugar)

Diabetes has really only become complicated to manage in the years since the invention of blood glucose meters and excess information. Those of us with type 1 diabetes have been convinced that in order to "survive" we need so many little pieces of expensive technology, super fast "boutique" insulins and constant monitoring of our glucose levels, so that we are utterly lost if these things aren't available to us. There are type 1 diabetics alive today who "survived" very well on one or two injections of beef or pork insulin a day, testing their urine for glucose using Benedict's solution, and avoiding "sugary" foods. If they can do it and live to be 60, we all can. Thank you, -- Amber C.

James,
That was good info from Mr Fenwick. A great attitude for everyone to emulate.

As a type 2 diabetic I wonder if part of the Diabetics problem might be solved naturally in the worst case of TEOTWAWKI.

I lost 25 lbs and lowered my blood sugar by 50 to 75 points. The weight came from a period of inactivity after multiple surgeries. I rarely need insulin except when I fall off my diet. Oral meds take care of it normally and I am now able to exercise some. More weight loss is in my near future. My M.D. says Diet & exercise will take care of it when the weight stabilizes at my proper weight.

Considering my experience and from all I read, I'd guess many Diabetics will be helped by lowered food consumption and exercise brought on by TEOTWAWKI. Possibly to the point of needing no meds. I am hoping for that result. - E.H.

I ran across an article on survival and diabetics written by a nurse. It was what we call a basic brush and floss kind of article that quoted from some well-known medical books. I call it a brush and floss article because it contained mostly information which a diabetic already knows, much like the way a dentist tells you what your mom has told you a bazillion times about brushing your teeth.

However at the end of the article the nurse pretty much consigned type 1 diabetics to doom and even referenced Darwin and the "survival of the fittest". I know in the novel One Second After, the diabetic daughter died because of lack of insulin, but the part in the book about it going bad because of temperature variations is not accurate.

Here’s some information which will be of help to those who use insulin, specifically Humulin. We've been helping with diabetic preparedness for several years and there are some important things which are not common knowledge. Humulin--unopened--has a shelf-life of at least one year at room temperature. And Humulin can be frozen without ill effects to the user. Lilly won't tell you this, but I know of a type 1 diabetic who froze a year's supply for Y2K.

Her name is Madeline and in 1999 she called me to ask if I knew if insulin could be safely frozen. I told her that I didn’t know, but I would find out. Several of us in the Medical Corps organization started making calls and found out it could. I relayed the good news to Madeline. I suggested that if she were going to freeze it that she keep a log of her blood sugar test values with un-frozen insulin and then with the frozen insulin. She did and her blood sugar did not vary. In fact, Madeline still practices that type of preparedness with her disease.

As for the Darwin and the natural selection mindset, EMP or not, this country is not the Titanic. There are lifeboats for everyone. As medical people, and for non medical as well, our job is not to pick who gets to live or die simply because we may not know the answer to the problem. Our job is to solve the problem and not bow down to Darwin or "selection" or ignorance. Diabetics, preemies, old people, retarded children and the like are not mass causalities and a matter of triage. They are just a people problem which can be solved. I do not have the moral right to pronounce doom on the sick or injured. I do have a moral obligation to at least try to solve a problem.

To say that a Type 1 diabetic wouldn’t have a tough time of it if the system collapsed would be untrue, but problems can be solved. People who are insulin dependent or dependent on any medications need to put away extra supplies for treatment and support of their condition. I would not solely count on electronic devices either. Telemetry has a bad habit of failing, so old fashioned ways of checking blood sugar might not be that old fashioned if we lose telemetry because of an EMP. Keep in mind that there are several other diabetic problems and that there are medications to treat them. Therefore, it is not just insulin which will be in short supply if the system fails.

These supplies will only be a cushion though if a disaster of the magnitude presented in, One Second After, happens. That cushion will give us some time to work on finding answers for a myriad of problems which would surface.

As for diabetics we will have to find a way to duplicate the work of Banting and Best and other researchers of the early 1920s. This isn’t a survival-of-the-fittest type of thing. It is a problem to be solved. Just recently some Canadian researchers injected capsaicin into the excess pain receptors of the pancreas of diabetic mice. Then a neuropeptide was used to soothe the inflammation. The pancreas immediately started producing insulin and 4 months later the previously diabetic mice were still “cured”.

Is the diabetic survival problem complex? Of course it is. All TEOTWAWKI problems tend to be complex. But they are still just problems to be solved. Keep in mind that if an EMP wiped out all type one diabetics, it would not be an end to type 1 diabetes. If it could be ended by some sort of natural selection then where did it come from in the first place?

Summary:

1) Humulin can be frozen without damaging the contents, bottle or seals and then used without ill effect to the patient.

2) Unopened Humulin has at least a one year shelf-life at room temperature (70 degrees F.)

3) Darwin wasn’t a diabetic or a survivalist so who cares what he said.

- Chuck Fenwick, Medical Corps

Jim,
We preppers get labeled all sorts of things from mildly eccentric to paranoid, and so I ask, is it so imbalanced to want insurance?
Clearly most people have health insurance (if they can afford it) car insurance (mandatory), home insurance and life insurance so why stop there? When friends ask about my lifestyle, this is my argument.

1) Why do you have firearms?

Police insurance. If the police can't come in time, (can they ever?) or are overwhelmed (Los Angeles riots anyone?) or just go home (Hurricane Katrina?) then you may need need firearms.

2) Why do you have stored food?

Eating insurance. Just in time (JIT) delivery systems, monocrop susceptibility to plant diseases, lack of any food stored at the national level.

3) Why do you have stored gasoline/diesel?

Transportation insurance. If you live in the country or suburbs walking everywhere is probably not realistic, or want to bug out of a city.

4) Why do you have a ham radio and portable transceivers?

Communications insurance. Storms, blackouts etc. No monthly charges like cell phones and easier than smoke signals.

5) Why do you have generators and stored fuel for them?

Electrical insurance. This way the frozen food I have stays cool for a few days etc.

6) Why do you have stored water?

Cooking, drinking and washing insurance.

7) Why do you have precious metals?

Fiat Currency insurance. In case some bureaucrat decides to print up so much money that we go into hyperinflation.

Even the adage, "one is none and two are one" is not ignored by the masses. Ask someone who relies on their eyeglasses to see if they only have one pair. How many people have two cars when they could really get by with one.

It is only the wandering barefoot ascetic with a loincloth and begging bowl as his only possessions who makes no preparations. It is human nature to prep, the only question is to what degree. - SF in Hawaii

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I think there is a blind spot in a lot of preparedness/survivalist writing that I would like to address. There are a number of sites which do a good to excellent job of getting the word out about the nuts-and-bolts of getting prepared to allow a family to get through a short term emergency, and there are sites which encourages us to get a retreat in farm country.

However, I have not seen anyone talk about how we will boot strap ourselves to back towards some sort of village life and civil society[, in the event of TEOTWAWKI].

In your novel "Patriots" , you touch on this with the Troy Barter Faire, and then fast forward at the end of the book to this being an accomplished fact. In the novel "One Second After", the author makes the point that an EMP event could have pushed people back to a 19th century lifestyle, but things were more medieval because no one had the knowledge of how
to live in the 19th century, or readily had the tools.

In a post-SHTF scenario, there won't be much call for fibre-channel administrators, but there will be a demand for bakers and candle makers. What I suggest is that while people are assembling their preps, they also look at the skills and services that they will need afterwards, and see if they can't learn to do these things themselves. After all, if they need them,
so will other people, and some folks will be willing to trade for them. Free trade will be the boot-strap which brings about village life again.

Here's a quick list of skills/trades that I think would be useful in a post-SHTF world.

Food:
Baker
Brewer
Canning fruits, vegetables and meats
Cheese making
Smoking meats
Sausage making
Truck patch gardening
Vintner
Yogurt making

Dry goods, sundries:
Soap maker
Candle maker
Paper making

Clothing:
Seamstress/tailor
Leather worker (shoes, belts, coats)
Weaver

Materials:
Leather tanning
Wool shearing
Wool carding
Wool spinning
Lumbering (the hard way!)
Foundry for smelting recyclable metals

Manufacturing:
Blacksmith
Tin smith
Wheel wright
Cartwright
Cooper (barrel maker)
Leather worker (tack for animal drawn equipment)
Glass blowing (jars, bottles and apparatus)
Pottery

Many of these skills and trades can be started as a hobby. I suggest that people think about these now, and find what they have a knack for and consider it "job security" for the future. - Bear in California

Mr. Editor,:
If one was truly going to "Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It" I would never rely 100% on organic farming unless it was as a last resort Personally I wouldn't rely on it anymore then compost and manure, if it was free and available (Do you deliver?)

I work in agriculture and during growing season, I see organic crop failures, and these are professional farmers. Could you afford to loose 25-80% of your crop, or how about 100 percent?
Organic growers are operating at a huge disadvantage using "organic pesticides" with many that just don't work. Sure, some will knock the problem down for a short while, then you will be back where you started, as all the eggs hatch out again.

If you have ever had problems with: Whitefly, Thrips, or Spidermites just too name a few, then you will know exactly what I mean. Commercial growers feed the world, and turn out crop after crop with reliable results using the correct amounts of pesticides and fertilizers, shouldn't you be doing the same? After all, your life might depend on it right?

Ok back to work, Now lets see... Who was it that had fertilizer and Malathion on sale? And I need... - Barry

JWR Replies: In my estimation, the best course is lies in the middle ground: Get experience with both gardening techniques. If we ever have a dreaded multi-generational TEOTWAWKI, then experience with organic gardening will be invaluable. In the short term, it also has some health benefits, and amending the soil naturally is a good thing, even if you decide to use pesticides. I agree that after the Schumer hits the fan, crop yield will trump all other considerations, since there will suddenly be a lot of hungry folks to feed, without any conveniently-stocked supermarket shelves. Even devoted organic gardeners should store some pesticides! But don't overlook the possibility of a worst-case situation that could go on, and on, and on, and we find that all available pesticides and chemical fertilizers are expended and irreplaceable. Again: Get experience with both techniques.

Hello Mr Rawles,
In response to Jane L.'s letter on shedding bad habits posted on September 3rd, it is admirable she has identified things in her life she can move away from for a more sustainable and healthy lifestyle.

I would like to caution her, as well as others, that preparedness and survivalism is not an activity one does for a few weeks, and "is ready". It is a lifestyle changing activity that probably reaches every facet of life, changing many things all at once.

Don't burn out on it.

Things like the glass of wine, some breath mints or chewing gum are all small things that add up. Remember, you should be in this for the long haul, and a perpetual cycle of denial of these little things can add up, building a resentment to the lifestyle you're trying to adjust to. I know when I'm going backpacking for a long time, I miss my bed. If I was suddenly out of the house and this was my only means of warmth at night, I would begin to resent requiring the tent and backpack, and long for the days of my warm house and bed. Finally, when I get my nice warm bed back, I'm likely to never want to camp or backpack again.If you deny yourself a lot of creature comforts all at once, then start "caving" on a few of them, you may find yourself in a backwards slide where you resent the whole preparedness mindset.

Even if that sacrifice of these little treats is acceptable to you, what of those in your family, who may not feel the sense of importance about what you're doing? Suddenly being denied soda pop and television may cause an instant animosity to the lifestyle you're hoping they embrace. Even a gradual denial of these things may cause it, albeit less severely all at once.

If candies or wine are important to you, find ways to store or re-supply what you have. Preparedness should be about sustainability, not denying ones self of what they feel is important.

As for television, it is a tool. You can cut it out altogether, or look at it as another medium of information. Yes, you can turn off Spongebob, but maybe you should be watching shows about deer hunting or food prep? Even the occasional movie is important, as your family all watches it with you. Some households, this is the only "together time" there is, sadly. Look at what that television means to your family. If gathering to watch a movie every other night is some family quality time, then don't deny that. These are the people you care most about in the world, and the ones that will have your back in the situations you're prepping for.Just having that quality time to reinforce family relations is important. - DA in Michigan

You saw the warning signs years ago and decided to be the ant, not the grasshopper. You found and purchased the home on land that is now your residence as well as your retreat.  You’ve gathered the materials to survive, perhaps even thrive, during the coming storms of political upheaval, food shortages, social disorder and economic distress.  You took courses on weapons use and feel confident in your ability to defend home and kin with any of the weapons in your personal armory.  You assembled canning materials and learned how to use them.  You consume, replenish and rotate those foods regularly, not just watch them age on the basement shelves.  You have the house wired for 12 VDC as well as standard 120 VAC.  Your solar panels, batteries and backup generator are all positioned and tested.  The neat stacks of silver rounds lie nestled in protective containers, waiting to be used for purchases when the dollar is finally recognized for the worthless paper it has become.  Medical supplies are all labeled and stored in easy to reach locations in the house, barn and bunker.  Manuals on survival techniques, emergency first aid, growing and preserving your own food, and a host of other critical topics are carefully filed away for future reference in an Internet-limited world.  Stabilized gasoline and treated diesel sit quietly in sturdy underground drums.  Your communications gear includes CB, ham and FRS radios, and you rigged up wired field sets between the main house and outbuildings.

You even took some steps not normally included in the various “Preparation for Apocalypse” articles that flooded the media and which were read by millions.  You measured the firing distance to each property landmark visible from your home and wrote up landmark-specific bullet drop tables for the calibers of rifles you will use in defense.  You got part of a fresh animal carcass from the local country butcher and practiced your wound suturing skills on real flesh.  You picked up and squirreled away various strengths of reading glasses that you don’t need now but may need in years to come.  You gathered moderate quantities of several multi-use chemicals and a book that shows how to make simple mixtures such as match head material, flash powder, and smoke grenade filler.  When buying and storing your paper goods, you didn’t just lay up three years worth of toilet paper, you also remembered that "If The Momma Ain’t Happy, Ain’t Nobody Happy" and, setting aside your embarrassment, you bought and carefully stored away a generous stash of feminine sanitary products.  You knew that having beans and rice for months at a time potentially could be considered a fate worse than starvation, so you added hard candy, plenty of dried fruit and other treats to the pantry.

You feel a sense of accomplishment and confidence as you fine-tune your checklists and provisions.  You can’t plan for absolutely everything, but you feel you’ve done all you can to get ready for the majority of scenarios that might come about. You are prepared.  Or are you?

A vital component that many people forget is preparation as a community. Self-sufficiency tends to lead to some amount of isolation. My own little slice of heaven in North Idaho is a prime example.  Almost every resident of my small rural town is independent, largely self-reliant, skilled, practiced and ready for everything from extreme weather to MZB attacks.  Each of us knows the neighbors who are in our immediate vicinity, and within that small area we all share goods as needed and assist when the situation calls for it.  But until very recently, no one but the Postmaster could say he actually knew the majority of people in our community beyond a wave and a hello as they drove past.

Each micro-community, composed of anywhere from three to a dozen families, had social interaction at backyard barbecues, fireworks displays and 4H meetings, and teamwork interaction at such events as road clearing sessions after a big windstorm or snowstorm.  But these individual micro-communities did not interact regularly, did not know what skills or provisions each could contribute in times of widespread emergency, and most importantly did not know whom to call to rapidly disseminate important, time critical information about events that could impact the entire region.  We had no phone tree, no list of skill sets available within the town, and no plans for assistance beyond what each micro-community did as a matter of practice, informally developed over the years.  We were not truly prepared, even though most of us thought we were.

While it is still an ongoing process of refinement, as all preparations tend to be, we took an approach that may well serve your own community.  First, we advertised a community preparedness meeting, with enough advance notice that people could get it on their calendar if interested, but not so far in advance that it was forgotten by the time it arrived.  The invitation, via signs at the Post Office and Fire Station, and distributed via flyers, had three key elements:

It was to be an informal meeting with no governmental spin or involvement; it was to get folks talking about community preparations for a variety of situations where we could help each other out effectively, while maintaining our privacy and independence, and finally it would include some refreshments. You’d be surprised how many people are drawn by the prospect of home made brownies, fresh coffee and Huckleberry lemonade.

The meeting itself stressed that the purpose was to:

• Help local citizens to get to know a few more of their neighbors, and
• Expand preparedness thinking from just individual parcels or immediate neighbors to the entire community.

Also mentioned up front was that the meeting was not called in order to:
- Pry into anyone’s issues with their neighbors
- Get into political debate
- Gather information about peoples’ pantry, gun safe contents, or underground bunker…
- Violate privacy – personal or property
- Pressure anyone to participate
- Fill peoples’ calendars with meetings/activities

We reminded attendees that planning was important now:

- So that preparations can be done when we have time, resources, good weather, low stress levels
- So that friends and neighbors know how the community as a whole will respond, before any action is needed
- So that critical preparations are not overlooked
- So that shortfalls can be corrected before an event makes them a critical issue
- Because some preparations may take a long time
- To avoid excessive duplication of efforts

We talked about the various scenarios that might require the community to band together instead of trying to deal with the issue on our own, including wildfire, extreme weather, a major transportation interruption, a large scale natural (or man-made) disaster, economic meltdown or further acts of governmental tyranny.

We discussed the focal areas that might be established to get people with specific knowledge or skills involved on teams of resource planners/coordinators to allow the best response to the situation:

• Communications
• Emergency Resource planning/coordination

- - Food/water/fuels (consumables)
- - Personnel/Equipment/shelter (hard resources)
- Defensive systems
- Medical
- Fire
- - Advanced Preparedness
- - First response
- Unusual hazards and situations

We asked attendees to sign up, voluntarily, for areas where they felt they could add benefit by thinking and researching, providing leadership or just helping out on a time available basis.

We established a web site where residents can find out – at their convenience – about meetings of possible interest; tips from others on various topics such as food preservation, animal husbandry, and ammo reloading; updates to community contact lists; and other information that may be of value but does not warrant continual phone calls or E-mail messages.

We created a phone tree that allows any person to make as few as three calls and be confident that within 5-10 minutes the vast majority of residents had either been personally contacted or had a message left on their phone machine.  The mechanism is simple:
A small handful of people’s names and numbers are at the top of the tree.
The citizen who sees or hears about an imminent danger calls each of these top-tier persons or – if they do not answer – one of the people on the next tier down.
Each of those called passes the message along – briefly but specifically – to each of the names just below their own, on the tree.
Those people do the same until the bottom of each branch is reached, then those at the bottom make a “close the loop” call to each of the original top-tier residents.
[Note: elderly or invalid residents on the phone tree should be physically visited if they don’t answer the phone and the issue is potentially life threatening]

The close the loop step ensures that the community phone tree has been activated, at least partially, from top to bottom and allows cross-trunk communication if the line is severed unintentionally by personal or electronic difficulties.  A community of >1000 people can be reached in just five vertical steps if each person makes just four phone calls without duplication; six steps if only 3 calls per person are made. For events requiring continued updates, such as wildfire location or direction of approaching zombies, the web site can then be used to stay up to date without tying up the phone lines again and again.  To ensure that the phone system itself does not cause a breakdown in communications, the community should have backup schemes as many layers deep as necessary, including CBs or other pre-established radio lines, “pony express” mechanisms using car, ATV, snowmobile, horse, dogsled or whatever makes sense in your region.  This one step alone can dramatically improve your overall preparedness as you will have hundreds of trusted eyes and ears scanning for dangers, hundreds of hands and minds that may be applied to a situation that would overwhelm your own family’s abilities, and a means to call on resources beyond your own wealth – as long as the spirit of give and take is kept balanced and not abused.

Beyond these steps, you might also consider establishing an appropriate number of recurring activities or meetings, whether they are weekly or quarterly as prescribed by the level of availability and interest; fleshing out or refining your community preparedness plans based on detailed threat scenarios that seem likely for your area; establishing response plans, including identification of leaders and supporters; and holding community response drills to see what holes you’ve missed so they can be corrected before a real crisis comes along.  As a final thought for consideration, a hand-cranked 110 dB siren suitable for notifying all locals within a considerable distance that they need to get on “the community net” can be had very affordably on your favorite auction site…

Now you can go clean your M1A again while gazing fondly at your stuffed pantry shelves, secure in the knowledge that you probably are about as ready as you’ll ever be.

We started prepping about 18 months ago. I have felt like a chicken with its head cut off, going wildly in all directions. I’ve learned a lot about a lot, some by research, but have learned most from doing. Being prior military (I served six years in the Army Captain, and as a civilian, I was a financial planner), I started identifying mission statements and initiating plans, backwards (aka backwards planning) in order to get them accomplished on time.

The first mission: “How do we survive hyperinflation?” My readings led me to believe that the best protection is to plan on not needing to spend money on stuff and save money for taxes. The question is how to accomplish that! I concluded that becoming as self-sufficient as possible and inter-dependent and mutually supportive with other like-minded persons.

Another mission: “How to survive societal meltdown with options and strategies.” We determined that we needed to prepare in-place in our current home while we simultaneously worked to identify a homestead, but one that also optimized our security needs under a societal meltdown scenario. We had to define those security needs and defensive goals. We also decided to initiate some basic security in-place.

What kind of retreat? What does one need for a retreat and where? Our pursuits included looking at everything from two perspectives, the retreat and the in-place strategy. We have decided that if we haven’t relocated, that bugging out would entail leaving the majority our resources and is not a viable option. We will defend in place if we don’t get relocated before TEOTWAWKI.

My research indicated that to be fully self-sufficient where we not only grow our own food, but also that of our livestock, that we would need around 15 acres. Notably, a 5 acre homestead would do a lot! In researching homesteading and agriculture in-place alternatives I found out that Cubans grow 70% of their own food in the cities! I found that there are several cases of very small acreage homesteaders of an acre or less growing nearly all their needs! I recently discovered that I wouldn’t need to preserve so much if, instead of a huge garden once a year, I maintained a year-round greenhouse and grew what we needed on a staggered rotation basis inside the greenhouse with fresh food all the time! This year a summer thunderstorm hail storm wrecked a good portion of my garden and reminded me of the need for having a storage pantry! I will be doing a bit of both, for safety.

Other factors which have bearing on the retreat are:
1. Water. We wanted a creek, and especially if it had hydroelectric possibilities year-round; plus sub-irrigated property, and possibly a spring. Meanwhile, we have purchased a number of water barrels, filled them, and discovered some alternatives to ‘keep’ the water: bleach every 6 months, or other additives which could keep it up to 5 years, or boil it before use, and /or filter it. We bought a water filter system. Wells are acceptable for domestic use, but we still want a dependable surface water source in case the well ran dry. We found information available on property wells on the Internet under ‘well logs’ and the respective state.

[JWR Adds: Finding a property with sub-irrigated pasture is great, as is finding a property with micro-hydro development potential. But finding a parcel with both is a genuine rarity, because land that is sub-irrigated is almost always dead-level, near a stream or river. But for good micro-hydro power, you need a fast-flowing creek or river, with plenty of "fall" that you can exploit. For that, you need hilly property, not "bottom land." So those two goals are almost mutually exclusive, unless you buy a huge parcel that has both features.]

2. Sun. We looked at properties, and in particular, the garden and agricultural spots for solar exposure. This is affected by location such as northern or southern latitude, proximity to trees and hills, sun-angles including winter sun. We also looked into Solar for Solar Power. We found hydro-electric power to be less expensive and more available than solar so we have decided to make hydro a priority on our retreat search.

3. Soils. Self-sufficiency is agricultural based so having access to good soils for crops and livestock is paramount. Soil also needs to drain well for crops and septic systems as well. Meanwhile, our home garden soils have been amended (enriched) with compost and chicken manure and the garden looks like Hawaii, lush, green and prolific! The county ‘extension office’ was able to provide a lot of information about the agriculture in the local area of interest.

4. Elevation. The higher the elevation of the property, the shorter the growing season is. We determined that we preferred properties below 2,400 feet elevation, and although we love Montana, we found that virtually the entire state is above 3,000 feet, and Wyoming is largely over 4,000 feet, Northern Arizona is high elevation too! So, for agriculture, we like parts of Washington, Idaho and Oregon.

5. Population. After fairly extensive scouting of the territory, we found that a lot of the country is fairly densely populated, especially the good agricultural areas! It takes a lot of research, to locate remote properties. We found a useful tool for this research is the Internet, and specifically, Windermere.com (which also has aerial views) and Google Maps (which has terrain view) and MapQuest.com (aerial view). We found that the listing office web site often had additional information and pictures available. The SurvivalBlog provided a link to a great city population comparison tool at Moving.com.

6. Security. There are numerous factors to consider when contemplating retreat security, including in-place home security: the Lay of the land, Visibility, Obstacles, Community, Alert systems, Accessibility, Cache, Population, and Ammunition. Regarding Ammunition, if we need to defend in place in our current home, it would be appropriate to have more shotguns and handguns for the home. Rifle fire in a residential neighborhood is not a good choice. We don’t want bullets flying out through the neighbor’s property. Looking at fields of fire and early warning systems has become a high priority. We remember that it was during the Los Angeles riots that the armed Korean businesses were left alone, passed on by and onto easier targets. Being armed is important!

How does one survive hyperinflation? Research includes Harry Figgie's book Bankruptcy 1995, in which Chapter 8 spells out the history of hyperinflation. I figure that the US didn't go Bankrupt in 1995 because it has been spending Social Security funds for operating capital. Can you spell Ponzi scheme? Other research included the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic 1923, Argentina 2001, and Zimbabwe today. I have obtained an actual 100 Trillion Zimbabwe dollar note, worthless and no longer a currency, as a reminder of where we are headed. The Zimbabwean people have to pan for gold to buy bread. With worthless currency, the population (will that be us?) cannot get paid enough to keep up with the ever increasing costs of things and cannot afford heat, or food.

It is my belief that hyperinflation can be survived primarily through Homesteading and Self-sufficiency and/or inter-dependence in a tight-knit group. Essential Elements for self-sufficiency and which I/we have done include:
1. Canning. With the Ball Blue Book of Preserving, which is about $6 at Wal-Mart, you can ‘can’ almost everything you may want to put up including meat, vegetables, and even condiments and meals! I also discovered Lehman's catalog is indispensable for homesteading tools!
2. Gardening, Green House gardening, Container Gardening, and growing Herbs. This year I have learned about non-hybrid seeds, to grow crops that I can and did save the seeds to grow the same crop next year without having to buy seeds. I also saved seeds from fruits and vegetables eaten and successfully grew and harvested crops this year from them!
3. Dehydrating (vacuum sealing jars and crock-pot meals) http://www.excaliburdehydrator.com/media.php These 9 incredible videos are on dehydrating foods and preparing meals, really quickly too.
4. Making bread (wonderful resources are at www.youtube.com and www.cook.com and many more.)
5. Making cheese (with friends)
6. Spinning wool (with friends)
7. Food storage long-term, Poly buckets, Mylar bags
8. Inventory management (FIFO) Pantry rotation
9. Cooking out of the pantry (www.backwoodshome.com) "Store what you eat and eat what you store!"
10. How to make stuff from scratch (baking powder, toothpaste, shampoo, dinner Not in a Box, beer, soda, root beer, ice cream, yogurt, cheese, butter, soaps, sew, automotive repair/rebuild, and much much more…)
11. Water. Water barrels and RV water system. Roof is ample for rain collection and plan on the above ground swimming pool for a holding tank.
12. Power. Our new China Diesel generator from India is nearly finished (teardown/rebuilt). It should run for 30 years. Long term fuel supplies will be a ongoing need.
13. Refuse/Garbage/Recycle … by canning and making from scratch, we have virtually eliminated ‘trash’. Leftovers get reused and consumed in casseroles, stews or other dishes and / or fed to the dog. Vegetable remnants go to the compost. Yard and trees waste get run through our shredder and put into the compost pile for our garden. We run two compost piles year-round.
13. Livestock. Currently in town, we are planning on chickens, rabbits, plus bees. We are fortunate enough to have an acre. If we are to make it on only an acre, we may have to barter for livestock feed because we may not have enough land to grow it. We can at a minimum raise rabbits for meat. We have city friends which have raised chickens, rabbits, bees, and sheep successfully for years. We look forward to a remote retreat where we will have more options for livestock.

How do we survive a melt-down crisis?
We decided that we wanted to provide for at least a year of reserves. We came to that conclusion calculating that our food supplies would need to carry us until we got the garden harvested in the year following the collapse; and, time to acquire and raise livestock (hopefully we would have chickens, rabbits and goats at a minimum before meltdown; but, if not, we have alternative foods stored for a minimum of a year!) We determined that there are several ways to achieve this goal depending upon timeframe, time you have to do it yourself, and money. First you have to determine what you need and how much. This can be quite involved depending upon your approach. Then your options are: Meals-Ready-to Eat (MREs), packaged foods such as Mountain House or Alpine Air which are either freeze-dried or dehydrated and you just add water, or you do it yourself, which gives you some flexibility and more important ‘repeatability’, but is very time consuming, and that is important if you think there is not much time left. You may want to ‘acquire’ a year’s supply of food package, and then learn ‘how to’ as you go. We found poly-buckets free at Costco Bakery, and for a nominal cost at Nalley's. Yes, they smelled of icing or pickles, but washed up fine and are food grade. With Mylar bags and CO2 from the local welding shop, we put up food stores readily.

In addition to food, we wanted a year’s store of normal shopping of household supplies: toilet paper, aluminum foil, plastic wrap, (handkerchiefs instead of Kleenex tissues), (towels instead of paper towels), laundry soap, bar soap, shampoo (sure we could make it, but we’d need “fat” and “hardwood ashes” to make it ourselves), medical supplies for general medicinal and also for emergencies: bleeding, dental, disease / quarantine supplies (masks, gloves, antiseptics), etc. We also anticipate that the banking system will not be available, i.e. there will be no operational ATMs, no open Teller Windows, and credit cards will be declined/inoperable. We set aside an amount of “cash”, today’s currency, for our crisis operating capital, and some in silver. We liquidated some IRAs to obtain the assets now. To us, these assets are better now to get prepared and are better than having more, but worthless currency in the future. The saying, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush, comes to mind. We have researched the metals markets and deemed them manipulated but with lots of upside (see Ted Butler's commentaries). We feel that one of the best investments is agricultural real estate.

We are debt free and hope to stay that way. We own our own home free and clear. This is not to brag or make someone feel bad, but rather to motivate you to wonder how. It is by not being a ‘consumer’, but by being balanced and frugal, buying what we needed, foregoing vacations, doing without ‘designer labeled jeans’, without landscaping, however we did invest in having a dump truck load of dirt dropped in the backyard for the garden since all we had was rocks for soil. We have several original household appliances and fixed them when they broke instead of getting new ones. We buy good used cars, maintain them well and keep them for years as long as they meet our needs.

I believe that there is a game of keep-away when it comes to how to get and stay ahead financially. The banks and others profit more by people remaining ‘consumers’ and participating as a throw-away society. Massive disinformation exists to misdirect and profit from the populace efforts. A lot of wealth for others is made and maintained by keeping the populace misinformed about financial tools, how they work and what they are used for correctly. However, ‘financial tools’ (CDs, Stocks, Insurance, Loans) are exactly that, “tools”! Tools can be an incredible resource and can help us build monuments, or can be deadly weapons that can destroy us.

Financial success starts with you. Identify your ‘needs’. Spend to meet your needs, not to ‘save’ on an on-sale item that you truly didn’t ‘need’. Shop wisely. Will second-hand merchandise meet your needs; can the item be repaired, etc.? Take care of your things and you don’t have to replace them so often.

You need to shop and learn about financial tools to meet your goals. The first is the placement of your savings (short-term, mid-term, long-term). There are numerous options with a few listed below.

Banks ‘are not your friends’! They are a ‘Tool’! They are a place to situate your short-term cash--your working capital that is used to pay bills.

Loanership dollars where you loan your money for a rate of return to you (interest): Banks (CDs), Money Markets, Insurance Companies (annuities), Corporate (Bonds), Municipal (Bonds), and Government (Bonds).

Ownership dollars where you invest your money and accept ownership risks (of loss or gain):
Stocks (owning a fractional interest in a company), real estate (your home, other real estate), Partnerships (business enterprise, etc.), and Precious Metals.

Insurance is a “Tool”! You need insurance to cover the calamity expense/risk(s) which you cannot afford, only! Often, you are not informed that your premium would be much lower if you accepted a higher deductible. It might be inconvenient to have to pay $1,000 if your car was wrecked or your home damaged, or a major medical claim, but the insurance would cover a catastrophic loss!

A home loan is a tool too. The structure of a loan is important, fixed or variable. Variable contains a ‘gamble’ element. Unless it is stipulated otherwise, most home loans can be prepaid, or accelerated. You have the ability to pay an extra amount above the mortgage payment. This extra amount can be applied towards principal, which you need to specifically specify ‘apply to principal’! Pre-paying a mortgage, especially in the early years of a loan is one of the greatest savings rates a person can achieve!

We actually paid our 30 year mortgage off in about 12 years. Admittedly, our friends drove newer cars, went on vacations, have better furniture, prettier lawns, fancier clothes, and went out to dinner and the movies more than we did. However, we are debt free. Yes, we are still worried about tight finances and the world situation, but our current position is a lot less stressful than being loaded with lots of debt. It can be done, with sacrifices!

It is an imperative for Americans to educate themselves, to not trust the system. Find out about things. Get inquisitive and broaden your horizons. This year I have eaten cooked nettles. Yes, it was very good. It was similar to spinach and no nettle burn! I had Yak meat at a local restaurant and now want to pursue having Yaks for livestock. Learn new things and hard skills. Become creative and inventive; how else can it be done? Become flexible, find alternative ways of getting things done, adapt!

We have a small group of friends with whom we meet regularly, try new projects and explore ideas. Our daily ‘walks’ have helped us meet our neighbors. Our friends suggested that we hold a ‘Meltdown Neighborhood Tea Party’ Potluck get-together. That sounds like a good idea to meet our kind of people. I believe we can do anything we put our minds to, especially if we work together.

There is often a good deal of attention paid to the accumulation, storage and usage of critical supplies performed in the process of preparation, but one thing I rarely see discussed is proper management of your carefully gathered inventory before, during or after a critical event comes into being. 

It's important to consider viewing your family or team as a quasi business entity and recognize that one of the top cited reasons for small business failure is poor inventory management.  Inventory issues can cause nightmarish headaches for any business, and the consequences for your family will only be magnified if you do not begin to view you group, and their supplies, as important assets that necessitate careful management.

Throughout the article I'll refer to the inventory concepts using canned food as examples, but the procedures could be applied to anything you stock: from ammunition, to clothes, to cleaning supplies. 

First in, first out (FIFO) rotation of inventor should be used.  Generally you want to apply this concept to your food storage and consume the items you acquire first as soon as possible. It makes sense to mark dates on cans when you acquire the food, but do you relish the idea of staring at a huge shelf or bin of cans, buckets or jars and trying to determine which one to consume first?  The following control systems can make life much easier:

1) Split your items into color dated 'blocks'. 
For example, if you have canned goods you plan on consuming over the course of the coming year, mark six months worth of the oldest cans with a green marker and then mark the rest of your cans with a red marker.  Items carrying the green mark get first used. 

This will create a quick and easy visual trigger every time you dip into your inventory.  When you begin to break into your red inventory, it's time to pull up another six months worth of cans and mark those with your green marker.  A note or sign indicating which color is currently being consumed should be posted near by so all members who have the ability to draw on your resources are sure to take the proper goods. A bit of time spent once a month saves countless hours digging through supplies looking for the oldest items to consume first. 

2) Implement a simplified Kanban-esque system.
This is a process where a small amount of stock is kept on hand and is replaced as it nears depletion.  This process is mostly beneficial for helping you consume and replace inventory prior to a critical event. 

    - Have a portion of your supplies in a convenient location to the kitchen (again, ideally using the oldest first) and attach a small card to the last item of the 'lot' which lists the good being consumed, and the quantity that needs be replaced from your long term storage. 

    - When you reach the last item that has the card attached, you need to replenish your on hand stock with inventory from the long term location. The card should be placed in a re-order folder to ensure that your long-term storage has been re-supplied for the same amount you just pulled into normal, day-to-day usage. 

    - Upon re-supply, the card is attached once again to the last item of the lot and the process repeated, as needed, ensuring your replenishment process is accurate, timely and efficient. 

At a glance, you can look in your order folder and determine how much and what you need to be on the look out for in order to restore your long-term inventory to its pre-determined levels.  In this manner, you only re-order what you've used, and you ensure you're constantly rotating inventory to reduce the risk of spoilage.

As a quick example: you use one can of beans a day, keeping seven in your kitchen cabinet.  In your pantry you toss a card under can #7 that simply reads: Beans: 7.  When you get to the can of beans that sit atop this card, retrieve seven more from your storage and place the tracking card in your re-supply location.  At any time a review of this location would tell you every consumed item you need to replace for your long-term location.

3) Security and control. 
Ideally your inventory would be kept behind a gated barrier. While you'd like to assume that friends, family and your team would not stoop to theft, you never know what circumstances you may find yourself in that provides an exposure to your resources you never intended others to have.  In addition to the possibility of theft, you run the risk of children or others who are normally used to grabbing a snack whenever they like simply helping themselves, not through an act of maliciousness, but simply not realizing how the situation has changed.  To prevent this accidental (or otherwise) over consumption of supplies you should store inventory in a location not commonly accessed.  Keep your daily and generally consumed inventory readily accessible in a kitchen pantry, keep your long term supplies in a separate, locked facility.  This can be something as simple as a basement door where the knob has been replaced with a device that locks from the outside. 

I can't stress this point enough: The more casually you allow people to treat your long-term inventory, the more your errors will multiply. 

4) Visual inspection and count. 
How can your trade or use what you don't know you have?  You should conduct a full inventory count inventory twice a year.  Material should be counted and a general visual inspection conducted in order to identify any items or containers that might have visible damage.  If a container has become damaged, you may want to accelerate its usage or consider trading it to avoid wasting the contents inside.  If you identify a large container of goods early on that has become damaged that you have no hope of repairing or re-sealing, early detection will allow you to trade this off while it still holds some intrinsic value.  If you had waited a year and only discovered it when the decay was too far advanced, you could be forced to take an unsavory loss.  Value considerations aside, it's important to know what you believe you have is actually usable.  If you're depending on supply XXX and upon time of usage you discover it's a waste, not only do you find yourself at a loss for whatever you paid or traded for the item, you may now be short a critically important item. 

If you have a large group of people and supplies, you may want to increase this twice a year count to once a quarter. It's crucial you identify errors or missing items early only to keep small issues from snowballing to huge ones.  Quantity and quality inspections should have a primary counter and a second person verifying accuracy.

5) Record keeping. 
I'd suggest use computers while you can but print your records out, every time, so you have a hard copy.  A simple spreadsheet will do to start and if you don't have access to Microsoft Excel, you can utilize Google Docs to get started.  Your inventory records should include the item, the quantity, the date acquired and the use by date if applicable. 

This data allows you to track over time what you're using, and how often, and allows you to better prepare for not only your requirements, but also to identify what you may have that's not being fully utilized and trade it before you run the risk of spoilage.  When planning your food needs or trade possibilities, knowing you have 100 cans if item X is good; however, knowing half of those are 1 year past their use date and your consumption has dropped by a third would allow you to keep an eye open for possible barter opportunities in advance.

Try to keep your records in pencil.  Speaking from accounting experience, it's much easier to correct a mistake in pencil that it is in ink.  With a pen, over time, your records simply get sloppy from crossed out figures and attempted error corrections.

6) Second review on scrap or waste. 
Before any item is trashed or written off as a loss, obtain a second opinion.  One man’s trash is another's treasure and one of your group members may have knowledge of the item that allows you to squeeze the last few drops of value from something before your dispose of it.  Any value you can recover is better than 0.

It’s good to have stuff, be it ammunition, food or barter items. 

It’s better to have a lot of that stuff. 

It’s best to know exactly what you have, and when it’s approaching the end of its life, so you can use it in a timely fashion or trade it to someone who can. The topics above only touch on the very, rudimentary basics of inventory control but it's important to consider proper management of your assets and realize the benefits you can obtain through accurate tracking, control and utilization of your material resources. 

JWR Adds: Keep in mind that cooking oil that has gone rancid is often still quite suitable for stretching your diesel supply. (In effect, formulating your own biodiesel, up to 10 percent, by volume, in hot weather. This is not recommended for cold weather unless you have a fuel tank heater, or a fully-capable biodiesel making system and a vehicle that is rigged with two tanks--one for biodiesel and the other with dinodiesel, that is used when starting up and shutting down your vehicle.) And food that is no longer palatable for humans because of taste issues (rather than rancidity) are often still safe to feed to poultry or swine.

Mr. Rawles,
I am just now (pretty late in the game, I know) becoming aware of the impending collapse and have begun reading your blog regularly (it is the first thing I read in the mornings now). I realize now that I must prepare as much as I can and have a question about my current location. I live on an isolated (no bridges, ferry and airplane transport only) Island in the Chesapeake Bay. It is somewhat densely populated for its size, but everyone knows each other and most residents hunt and fish and have their own boats. Many residents are quite self sufficient and the crime rate is virtually non- existent. I realize we are downwind of several nuclear targets (DC is only about 70 miles away as the crow flies) but this area (the Delmarva Peninsula) and this island in particular are sparsely populated. I recently bought a house here and cannot afford to move anywhere anytime soon, and if I could, I could only get to rural western Virginia, West Virginia, or Eastern Kentucky at the furthest. The only benefit of my current locale is that in the event of a collapse, it would be isolated and looters would be unable to get here. On the other hand, there would be 500+ residents and little or no fuel to power fishing vessels after current supplies run out. The climate is mild and we could get by with little or no heat in the winter. Much of the surrounding land is swampland and not conducive to agriculture. There are few firearms on the Island other than a few shotguns for duck hunting. I currently own a Glock 21 (.45 ACP) for personal protection and am looking into rifles. I would like an M1A but probably could not afford one. How could I make my current situation more suited to riding out a crisis? Any response will be greatly appreciated. Very Respectfully, - R.T.

JWR Replies: A few things come immediately to mind:

• You should stock up on fuel for your own use, and for barter.) Coleman white gas has a 6+ year shelf life, and can be used in engines as well as lanterns and stoves.
• Stock up on two-cycle fuel-mixing oil. (For chainsaws and older outboard engines.)
• Have a large propane tank installed, and make sure that it is has a wet leg. (So that it can be used to fill smaller containers.)
• If you don't have one already, get a tri-fuel generator, and a photovoltaic power system if you can afford it.
• You need a long gun for defense. Even if it is just a well-used "beater" Mauser, Mosin-Nagant, or Enfield bolt-action, that is better than nothing. And in essence, what you currently have is almost nothing.(Don't bring just a pistol to a rifle fight!)
• Stock up on non-hybrid gardening seeds. (Several of my advertisers sell them.) Also, build up your topsoil!
  

Your situation is unusual, but not unique. Make the best of the local resources, and organize with your neighbors to provide a common defense.

One could safely predict that in the event of a "slow slide" depression, you may see a situation develop similar to that of present-day Roatan Island (off the coast of Honduras), where burglars and even home invasion robbers commute to the island from the mainland via ferryboat.

Most of the survival information published today comes from thoughtful and hardy men who plan, prepare, and protect themselves and their families from disasters.  My admiration and appreciate for such men cannot be overemphasized. I doff my hard hat to all of you. There are, however, some elements of survival that are perhaps better served from a woman’s perspective. In particular, this article focuses on barter goods – those items that can be traded to other survivors for an improved quality of life or for basic necessity.

For purposes of clarity and ease of reference, this article is divided into age groups.  That’s because each age group has a specific set of needs and wants, aside from basic survival supplies. Let’s get to it! 

Infants and Toddlers
Baby Formula: Mixed with water, formula is an essential component of a youngster under two years of age when the mother is unavailable due to illness or injury or death, or the mom is not lactating. Containers of dehydrated or condensed formula may be bartered to those who need it.  It may also become necessary to barter for it. Although the condensed version can be heavy and bulky, it is often more desired for its flavor.  Additionally, it requires less water for mixing. Dehydrated formula is easier to transport and one package produces more product than wet formula, but it requires more water for dilution and its taste is less pleasing than condensed. Of the two basic forms of formula, however, this survivalist would opt for dehydrated formula as a useful and valuable barter item.   

Chew Toys: Chew toys aren’t just for dogs.  Very young children like chew toys, too. The toys help with teething and they keep a child content when parents are busy. Be sure to acquire those that have no extraneous parts, and any painted surfaces must be non-toxic and non-allergenic. To be safe, buy those that are made of new materials and have little or no decoration that could come off, including surface colorations. Go for the plain models, in other words. The child who wants a chew toy is not looking for anything fancy, just something to mouth.  Do not acquire a chew toy that could be swallowed or could block the airway. The toy must be too large to fit wholly within the child’s mouth. Any store specializing in infants and toddlers should have a wide array of acceptable chew toys, although they may prefer the term “teething ring” to “chew toy.”  Most people working to survive a disaster of any type are not going to plan for something as specific as a child’s chew toy. They will, however, soon learn that their young one will be much happier and therefore much less fussy if there is something fun and safe to chew on. The toys will make good barter for adults with young children, and chew toys take up little space and weigh next to nothing. If teething infants are not part of your survival group, these toys may be used as dogs’ chew toys or as older children’s playthings if not too infantile in decoration. Keeping the toys simple will make them more versatile.

Pull Toys.  Toddlers like to walk, and when they walk, they like to drag something along with them. A few inexpensive pull toys will provide hours of enjoyment for them.   If the toy makes a little noise, the fun is doubled. Beware those that have excessive parts – they are harder to repair and could become a choking hazard.  

Hard candies add a sweet touch in what may otherwise be a sour situation.  Kids love candy, and giving them an individually wrapped hard candy at midmorning or mid-afternoon may be a treat that eases the change in routine which is an unavoidable part of any survival scenario. Although there are some drawbacks to storing candy, the rewards for doing so will offset any problems.  Store them in rodent proof containers and in a cool, dry location and they should be good for 12 months or more. Dental hygiene may be difficult, and too much of anything is seldom good, so ration the dole and don’t divulge the hiding place. Families will want to add some candy to their provisions, so lay in a supply of individually wrapped hard candies.  [JWR Adds: The ingredients for candy store much longer that wrapped candies, but even old candy that has "gone sticky" is generally still safe to eat. An annual candy-making session can be a lot of fun for kids, and it is also economical. Our favorite to make at home is molasses taffy.]

Clutch Toys.  Yard sales often provide an inexpensive source for small, fluffy clutch toys. These are toys that young children can carry with them for comfort and companionship. Look for small, soft toys and dolls that are clean and, whenever possible, brand new in the package. All loving parents want their children to be happy whether in good times or bad, so items that children want will make good barter items.      

Ages 10 – 13
Brain & Drain Items. This age group may be the most difficult to keep occupied and happy. Full of energy, full of questions, and accustomed to technological gadgetry, these young people need to keep their minds and their bodies busy. They need to use their brains and drain their physical energy.  A few jigsaw puzzles or pocket-size game books (don’t forget the pencils) will suffice for after-dinner wind-down time, but these kids need something more challenging and physical during the day.  A couple of Frisbees or a boomerang may keep the boys busy for a while. Girls may enjoy a small cosmetic set (with a built-in mirror) or a compact sewing kit with several colorful fabric scraps.  Don’t forget decks of cards for those inclement weather days. A small paperback book enumerating card game rules will help resolve the disputes that invariably arise from such games. Decks of cards for specific games, such as Pinochle, Crazy Eights, Touring, and Old Maid will make a more interesting barter item. Get generic decks of cards as well as  decks of specific card games to use as small, lightweight trade enticements. A colorful, genuine jump-rope would be prized by any girl in this age bracket. And boys might enjoy a Nerf ball.  I’d steer clear of baseballs and the like in order to avoid injury and damage. Kids this age are creative and will make up various games with simple items when they get bored. Having some of those simple items as barter bait may be a good investment.  

Ages 14 – 17
Independent & Vital.  This age group wants to be treated as adults, that’s true whether in a survival situation or not. Treat them as such.  These young adults should be given some responsibility, for their own sake and so that the true adults have fewer tasks. Give them something meaningful to do and they will prove themselves. Let them instruct the younger children.  Perhaps they can devise a gentle means of discipline for their siblings.  Ask them to forage, if necessary. Assign tasks to them that require some thought and/or some physical prowess, and make those tasks unique to them. Provide them with some of the trappings of adulthood.  Adult trappings for young men may include:  a good quality knife, a multi-tool, a locking cache box, or their own small tent for privacy.  The females in this age category may appreciate name-brand cosmetic kits, a shoulder bag (purse), or a colorful pair of sandals. These young people are seeking their place in life. They want to be set apart yet they also want to be an important part of the family. Items that help them attain a sense of usefulness and equality will be practical in barter negotiations.

Senior Citizens
Along with infants, this age group will likely need the most attention and care. That is not to say they should be ignored or resented, but it does mean they present an opportunity for the clever and well-prepared barterer. Having what they need and want may enable you to get whatever you need and want.

Personal Care.  Denture cream, magnifying glasses, packets of facial tissues, hand creams, bucket hats (this style of hat is often worn by both men and women), cold packs, heat packs, compact chess and checker sets, large print puzzle books (don’t forget the pencils), condoms, over-the-counter anti-inflammatory medications,  Ben-Gay, Vick's Vap-O-Rub, hard candies, and sunglasses.  While perhaps not as vigorous as they once were, these elderly folks can provide much depth and affection in a family, particularly for the children.  They should be treated with the respect and care they deserve. When they or their family have nothing to trade, a caring person will provide the barter item anyway. That’s what keeps us human.  

Adults
Almost Anything.  Those people who fall between the ages of 19 and 64 carry the majority of the burden in providing for themselves and their families in all life’s situations.  Of course there are exceptions, but generally speaking that age group has the largest responsibility for the care and feeding of all others. As a trade-off, though, this age group is also the least likely to need extra help and supervision.  Still, we all like to have our own needs and desires fulfilled.

Some good barter items for this group, and in general, include pocket knives (get some small and colorful ones for the ladies), condoms, individual cosmetics, WISP (Colgate product) toothbrushes, .22 ammo, honey, Vaseline, sturdy work gloves in various sizes and colors, romance and mystery paperback books, spare batteries in various sizes,  feminine and masculine baseball-style caps, pocket sewing kits with spare buttons, eyeglass repair kits, used hand tools (hammers, wrenches, screwdrivers, folding pruning saws), tampons,  pencils and pens, journals, and bags of jerky. A word of caution:  don’t trade anything to anyone that could later be used against you or your family. For example, don’t barter ammo or a fixed-blade knife to someone you don’t trust, unless you absolutely need what they have and can’t get it elsewhere.     

Conclusion
No one can plan for every survival scenario.  What we can do, however, is set aside some items that can be bartered for those items we forgot, used up, or never knew we would need. The purpose of barter goods is to acquire honestly and peacefully what we want and need during times of trouble. These items also work well as charitable gifts to those in a worse way. All the items listed in this article are inexpensive and easy to acquire now, so start acquiring them now.  They take up little space and their individual weight is negligible.. Most of these things can be set aside for years, with nary a concern for their stability. Some can be obtained at yard sales or discount stores, other items can be purchased over a period of time. Each item will prove its value, whether for the specified age group or for a purpose not outlined above.  In other words, you will not be wasting your valuable space, time, or money by acquiring some or all of these items in small quantities.  I urge you to study the suggestions, think of some of your own, and create a separate bin, box, or bag for barter items.  Then place that container with your other survival gear. Good luck and God bless!

Good Morning!
Thank you for the info you provide for all of us in your web site. I live in the Kansas City Area in a beautiful suburb which is one of the nicest cities in the country. till doing okay in the depression too. My work is secure and I do well and I own my own twp-story with basement frame home and have been making it a retreat for the past five years. I have no debt and am 60 days ahead with my mortgage and insurance and utilities. Am I absolutely crazy to try to stay here when things go bad?

First, let me tell you what I have done. I have a new roof ,which is fireproof. I have two large fire extinguishers in each room and more in the basement and garage and attic and I have a 2-inch fire hose with Honda generator to pull water from my 2,000 gallon swimming pool/fountain as well as from my 2,000 gallon [combined capacity] plastic tanks under the deck. Yes, they will freeze in the winter so I may add a new tank in the basement. I have 100 50-pound bags of sand which can also put out fires [and double as ballistic protection].

I have a strong 7' wood cedar privacy fence around my back and side yards and I have landscaped them such that it is difficult to see into my yard from any point but still need to add a few more tall bushes to screen my home. I brought in 80 [cubic] yards of great topsoil for the backyard to level it and to add garden areas so I can grow lots of food. I have a gutter system hooked up to the water storage and I have 3 months of water stored now in the basement and when the time comes new 55 gallon water barrels with hand pumps will be in each of my 4 bath rooms and kitchen. There is a pond and active stream 200' from my home and 5 of my neighbors next door and up hill from me have large swimming pools that I can siphon water from. I can produce clean water for 25 for 20 years with my water filters. So I have five ways to get water when the tap stops running.

I can feed my family for more than five years and then grow food too. I have all the stuff you buy in the stores weekly. I can grow food inside or outside and in a greenhouse too that is next to the house which can be heated with the natural warmth of the earth /basement and wood-burning stove, and sunshine.

We can protect ourselves better than anyone you might know, night and day. I have tried to set up my perimeter in my yard using the fence and bushes and trees and berms, etc. without anyone seeing the difference so that a stray bullet or two will not hit us easily. I will build gravel plywood walls in key places inside when TSHTF to reduce stray bullets. My fireplace is 5' x 5' x 4' deep so I can burn 4' foot logs and keep half my home warm and the firewood is placed outside on the side yards to slow down a bullet or two. The fireplace outside is 10' wide and goes above the roof. I have a wood stack 10 yards long, half of it is 4' long wood. I built a barbeque grill/water fall/pool that is solid 12' concrete that works well to stop bullets and it is 20' long and 8' high and looks really cool too.
In my basement I am finishing I added some 12" concrete walls to also give more strength to the floor above and to
slow down a bullet or two.

There are thick forests within 200' of my neighborhood to hide in if necessary and they run the stream for 50 miles. I have a nice "wine room" that is built to Joel Skousen standards [per his book The Secure Home] just in case the web bots are right and we have a problem with radiation.

I may have missed to say a thing or two but have been through others check lists to cover it all.

Can I make it in the city? Or do I want to be a refugee or try to live with friends four normal driving hours away without my stuff?

Thanks, - B., Near K.C.

JWR Replies: Your preparations are excellent for someone living in the suburbs. I believe that your plans to stay in place will probably suffice for all but a true worst-case scenario. But it is important to get to know your contiguous neighbors well, including the neighbors behind your back fence. Having neighbors that you know on a first name basis, and that you can trust in times of Deep Drama will be crucial in the next decade. At present, my best estimate is that we will likely experience an economic depression that will be on a par with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Crime will be rampant, and you will need to institute a Neighborhood Watch on Steroids. That necessitates solid familiarity and trust.

Attached greenhouses are wonderful for situations where there isn't much home invasion crime, but they are a huge security risk in inimical times.

I recommend that you hedge your bets by pre-positioning some of your supplies with your friends, in anticipation of worst-case grid down collapse, where the municipal water will not be available. This is not a major issue for you, since you have an abundance of stored water, and rainwater collection system. But "grid down" will be a true disaster for your neighbors within just a few days. They will likely abandon their houses, leaving you by yourself to defend against large numbers of very desperate looters. You mentioned that you have a five year food supply --which is quite commendable--I'd recommend that you store up to half of it with your friends in the country. Keep in mind that you may only have the opportunity to make one trip Outta Dodge, so it is important to have some crucial logistics stored at your backup retreat.

I am a retired Marine Corps officer and Naval Aviator (jets and helicopters), commercial airplane and helicopter pilot, and most recently, an aircraft operations manager for a Federal agency.

I graduated from numerous military schools, including the U.S. Army Airborne (“jump”) School, U.S. Navy Divers School, Army helicopter, and Navy advanced jet schools. In addition, I have attended military “survival” courses whose primary focus was generally short-term survival off the land, escape from capture, and recovery from remote areas.  Like most Marine officers, I attended The Basic School, an 8-month school (only five during the Vietnam era – my case), which is still designed to produce a second lieutenant who is trained and motivated to lead a 35-40 man platoon of Marines in combat.  This course covers everything from field sanitation to squad and platoon tactics, artillery and other ordnance delivery, communications, reconnaissance, intelligence, firearms training, and much more.   Later, I attended the Marine Amphibious Warfare School and the Command and Staff College, both follow-on schools and centered upon the academic study of tactics and strategy as they applied to the missions of the Marine Corps.  I flew helicopters offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and across the U.S. I found out first hand how thoroughly corrupted is the federal bureaucracy and the government, in general.  Not a pleasant experience. I’d rather have been flying. I have bachelor's and master's degrees.

As a result, my wife of forty years and I seem to have been moving endlessly from place-to-place.  Nevertheless, I have tried in each place to do what I could to maintain a level of self-sufficiency for my family that varied greatly with locations and personal finances. My intention here is to try to share some of the less-than-perfect ways that I have tried to accomplish that end. 

Only in the last few years, primarily as a result of the political and fiscal situation in the U.S., have I begun reading some of the huge amounts of literature about how one can prepare for serious long-term off-the-grid survival.  I have found that the preparation required to be ready for that contingency seems to be endless.  I do not want to talk about all of those preparations.  Others have done so very well, and besides, I’m not there, yet.  What I would like to do is to talk to those, perhaps like me, who are not true survivalists in the commonly referred-to sense, but who are genuinely concerned about the future of this country, and might desire, like me, to begin to prepare. Perhaps my elementary and simplistic efforts might be of help to someone else who is beginning to think about the subject of preparedness.  There are many scenarios that might require this, but the two that I am thinking most about are economic collapse and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. I’m building small Faraday boxes, but not doing much else for EMP.

My thinking on begins with my own estimation of the basic problems:  shelter, water, food, fuel, and security.  I view these as the most critical needs, whether living in a tent or other outdoor shelter or here in our rural home in West Virginia. Here I have and often take for granted what I have -- shelter, well water, a small stream, a pond, a rain barrel; canned, dried, frozen, and freeze-dried foods; fuel for the generator and portable stoves, kerosene heater and lanterns; factory-made and reloaded ammunition for any one of several firearms.  Edible plant books. Gardening books. Encyclopedia of Country Living-type books. Reloading books. Hunting books. Tracking books. A few novels devoted to the “what ifs” of the future, including Jim Rawles' excellent "Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse", for example.  Books to fill an entire bookcase.  The Boy Scout Field Book sits right there next to the military survival manuals, as do Tom Brown's Field Guides, the The Foxfire Book series, a canning book, field medical books, and quite a few others.

Those are the basic things about which I think. I have been thinking about them for quite a while, in fact, longer than I even realized.  Perhaps I’ve been thinking about them ever since I was a young lad.   For example, my very first “survival book” was the Boy Scout Field Book, the original of which I still have (circa late-1950s edition). It is still a great reference if one is looking for an all-in-one manual for starting fires, making simple shelters, recognizing game tracks, tying knots, and much more.  I note that it is still available on Amazon.com. (It’s probably been scrubbed to favor the politically correct, but don’t know [JWR Adds: Yes, I can confirm that unfortunately it has been made politically correct--with the traditional woodcraft skills showing any injury to innocent and defenseless trees duly expunged. So I advise searching for pre-1970 editions!] ) One does not necessarily need the SAS Survival Handbook or the U.S. Army survival manual. I have them and have read them. They do cover security problems, but then don’t cover other topics.  Alas, there appear to be no “perfect” manuals, and the Boy Scout Field Book is no exception.  But it’s not a bad beginning. And so I was beginning the journey even before I knew that I was. 

I think that my first education in “survival” came at about fourteen. That’s when I first shot a .30-06, an old [Model 19]03 Springfield. It pretty much rattled my cage.  Mostly, my older brother and I used to track and shoot small animals in the deep woods of Missouri as youngsters.  We were “issued” ten rounds of .22 LR ammo by our father, a retired USAF pilot, to be used in a bolt action, single shot, .22 rifle with open sights.  One would be surprised what that meager handful of loose ammunition could do for one’s choice of shots, one’s ability to be patient in waiting for the shot, and for one’s great satisfaction at having brought home six or eight squirrels for the cooking pot, having used just those ten rounds – and sometimes, but not often, less.  My point is that the knowledge of firearms is, in my view, basic to the notion of preparedness and in surviving in the wild. And it need not be exotic or overly complicated in nature.  One can surely attend modern schools that will teach one to double-tap a cardboard target or silhouette at seven yards with a semi-auto pistol, as well as basic and advanced tactical rifle courses, but very basic survival skill with a rifle can be had without much cost if one is committed to learning the skill and if one disciplines oneself. Start with only one round, and work up from there.  As Col. Jeff Cooper used to say, “Only hits count.”  In a purely off-the-grid survival scenario, I can envision that .22 LR rounds would be very precious, indeed.

Consequently, and even though I own handguns and rifles that will shoot .45 ACP, .44 Magnum/.44 Special, .357 Magnum/.38 Special, .380 ACP, .223, .25-06, .270, 7mm-08, .308, .7.62x39, .30-30, .30-06, and .45-70/.457 WWG Magnum (a wildcat), I shoot a .22 rifle and pistol more than all of the others, combined, and normally at least twice a week. And I’m hoarding them, as well as shooting them.  I have the capability to reload all the calibers (except .22 LR/Magnum, of course) above, as well as shotgun ammo in 12 and 20 gauge. I wasn’t really thinking of “survival” when deciding to do this about twenty years ago, but was interested only in having the capability to shoot more, and to do it more cheaply. Yet it appears that much of that ammo could be used for barter. I had never even considered this until reading some of the recent “survival novels.”

My apologies.  I’ve wandered into the weeds here, as I could do forever on my favorite subject.  Suffice it to say that whatever firearm one chooses – and make no mistake, one is necessary in my opinion -- there are all kinds of reasons to choose one over the other, depending on the situation and the person. One must endeavor to shoot it well. Owning a firearm is of almost no consequence, at all, unless it is properly employed.  Personally, I prefer a M1911 .45 ACP pistol and a 7.62 M1A SOCOM, while my wife is comfortable with the milder .38 [S&W] revolver and 20 gauge. pump shotgun.  I won’t even begin to get into the debate over .223 vs .308 and 9mm vs. .45 ACP.  Suffice it to say that in Vietnam I had the opportunity to see the effects of all of these, and I chose for my own security the .308 and .45 ACP.

Having got my favorite subject out of the way, I’ll talk about one that is likely even more important.  Water.  It is amazing how complicated this can be, and how many choices one has to solve this problem.  I have not yet solved it.  I have put up a rain barrel, and plan to get a couple more.  It’s amazing how rapidly a 55 gallon barrel will fill in even a moderate thunderstorm.  I got mine from Aaron’s Rain Barrels. http://www.ne-design.net/. I’ve camo-painted the first one to make it recede into the bushes that surround it.  

We have a very shallow stream down the hill that I need to dam so that it keeps only about a foot-or-two deep pool for gathering some water. It flows into a large pond, of which we own half (The owner of neighboring property owns the other half.).  But that’s over a hundred-yard trek downhill with empty buckets, and the same distance uphill with full ones.  Now, while that is okay for a backup, in my thinking, because I’m going on 63 years, I prefer to have something closer.  So my next “big” purchase will be a Simple Pump that allows one to drop a pump and pipe though one’s existing well casing down to below water level and extract water by means of a hand pump or DC motor attached to a battery which, in turn, will connect to a solar panel.  This is much, much cheaper than a Solar Jack.  At $1,200 for the hand pump capability (I’ll add on the DC and solar later), it’s a bargain, for me. See: http://www.survivalunlimited.com/deepwellpump.htm.  
I’m not recommending it for anyone, yet, as I haven’t got one. It has plenty of good reviews, and I’m willing to try it.  My apologies, but I am just talking about how I, for one, intend to solve my “water problem.” 

I’ve also started collecting clear plastic soda bottles for use in Solar Disinfection (SODIS), see; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_water_disinfection.  I’ve set up a rack for putting out the bottles in a sunny place.  Again, that’s a backup, but I’ll use it.

I have bought three different water filtering devices, the best of which is the Swiss-made, all-stainless Katadyn Pocket Microfilter.  It works wonders in that shallow stream and pond down the hill.. [JWR Adds: The same Katadyn filter model is available from several SurvivalBlog advertisers. They deserve your patronage first, folks!]

With the exception of the Simple Pump, these solutions are relatively cheap and effective, if not producers of great volume.  So far, they are what I’ve come up with.

I won’t go much into the food problem. It isn’t quite as complicated as the water problem.  I’ve either got to have it [stored], grow it, or kill it.  I’ve started storing all kinds of Mountain House freeze dried #10 cans (with expiration date dates in 2034), two-serving meals from Mountain House (expiration dates circa 2016), and numerous grocery store-type canned foods (expiration a couple years), in addition to dried beans, rice, Bisquick (sealed in plastic bags with desiccant inside), salt, sugar (Domino, which are sold in one-pound plastic tubs), olives, peanuts, wheat, etc.  Basically hit-or-miss, so far.  I need to get this “food problem” organized and do it right.  But it’s a start.  I think we’ve got only about a 60-day supply now, for two.

I’ve got two Coleman two-burner stoves.  One is a butane stove, and the other a dual fuel (white gas or unleaded gas), as well as several small backpacking stoves, the best of which is a MSR Whisperlite International, which uses virtually all fuel (unleaded, white gas, kerosene, diesel, and maybe even corn oil).   I was heavily into backpacking when we were stationed in Hawaii in the late 1970s, and still have all the gear.  After having one knee replacement and hedging doing another, I’ll not be backpacking if I can help it.  Nevertheless, I have two bug-out bags with essentials in them, ready to hit the trail if need be.  I’ve saved up and bought two good Wiggy's bags and a couple of his poncho liners.

Concerning backpacking stuff, I can recommend a book that I read back then called The Complete Walker, by Colin Fletcher. I haven’t read it in at least a decade, but its import is such that I remember much of it.  He emphasizes simplicity in gear.  That is to say, don’t pack a tent if you can get by with a tent fly – which you cannot in cold weather. I’ve still got my old three-season tent, but am saving up for a four-season. And he emphasizes: don’t worry about pounds – worry about ounces.  That is to say, if one is packing tea bags, remove the labels from the bags.  Ounces.  Remove all packaging material unless it is absolutely necessary (usually never). Don’t carry a “mess kit,” nor a knife, fork and spoon set.  A spoon will do (I’ve done it) along with a pocket knife. Now I have so many knives of so many types that I can’t remember them.  Personally, I’d go for a multi-tool.  But it’s heavy.  I never used to carry a weapon while backpacking.  Of course, it was (and is) illegal in Hawaii, but I think one would be remiss in not doing so today.  There was so much good advice in that book that helped me in the USMC, if nothing more than when packing my helicopter before a mission, or a car, trailer, or truck to move across the country.  “Think ounces, not pounds.”  I always think about Mr. Fletcher’s advice when I pack.

Anyway, I think I’ve got the camping stove angle covered in spades.  That is, until the fuel runs out.  Same goes for kerosene heater and lanterns (5).  My plan is to pull out our pellet stove and replace it with a free-standing wood stove.  Pellets are nice, but they must be bought, and the price is getting exorbitant, according to my pocket book.  They likely will be non-existent in a crunch. 

I connected a 12,000 Watt/50amp gasoline generator when we moved into this house nine years ago, as I have with every house in which we’ve lived for the last two decades.  I’ve got it wired through a transfer box to the circuit-breaker panel, a job that I did myself. It works, and it’s safe.  The main reasons for having this were to run the 220V[olt AC] well water pump and to run the refrigerator and our free-standing freezer during power outages.  But I’ve got it wired, anyway, to nearly every circuit in the house, except the other 220V appliances – water heater and heat pump.  It is somewhat selectable. That is to say that I can choose which circuits I want to power by engaging or disengaging the switches on the transfer box.  The problem is that it uses gasoline. So in a long-term outage it would soon become useless.  I’ve had the propane gas company come out to estimate what it would cost to get a dedicated 100 gal propane tank for the generator.  It would be about $500, but then, in addition to the 50+ gallons of gasoline, butane tanks, and white gas that I keep stored in a separate outbuilding, it would make a great explosion when hit with a tracer round.

Which brings me to the subject of security.  We live in a split-level home on about ten acres of forest.  The property is surrounded by other similar-sized properties of seemingly like-minded individuals.  I gleamed this because everyone out here shoots.  The sweet sound of gunfire can be heard at times in a full circle.  West Virginia, at least, has still got its priorities straight in this regard.  But I digress. This is a frame house with half of it below ground in front, but framed in back, which faces the forest.  The forest, itself, is a maze of downed pine trees blown over by the wind, interspersed with small saplings, vines and low brush.  Not a likely avenue of approach for anyone but the most determined.  For those who are determined, the downed trees would make excellent cover and concealment.  So I have a security problem to solve there, as well as at the front. 

I’ve started buying rolls of barbed wire and baling wire.  Unfortunately, I do not have access to dynamite, which we used to be able to buy in a hardware store in the 1960s.  We used it back then to blow stumps while clearing the land for our house.  I am thinking of buying a bunch of used railroad ties to build cover in the back; I’ve thought also of bricks and sandbags.  Problem is we’re reaching the point in all of this where the house would begin to look like a fortress, of sorts, to all but the most ignorant observers.  So there’s a line here concerning security versus “normalcy” that I must cross sooner or later.  Inasmuch as my wife is a few years older than I and is on constant medications, I’m afraid that finding a retreat (if we could even afford one) would be out of the question, as access to doctors, hospital and pharmacy are a necessity. Nevertheless I’ve got the bags packed and gear ready to throw into the pickup (Toyota 4x4 – like to have one of those older model American trucks, but I think they are getting rare, at least around here.  And what there are will likely go to the Cash for Clunkers Program….grumble, grumble. What will they think of next?).

So it looks to me as if we are here for the duration of the crisis, or sooner, if they try to take the guns from my cold, dead hands.  Speaking of, I still have to build a cache or two for guns and ammo and a few other necessities. 

And since I’ve more-or-less made that decision (here for the duration), I’ve thought of organizing the apparently gun-loving neighbors.  I’ve begun to buy walkie-talkies, if not field phones and commo wire.  I’ve got solar panels and several batteries (need to get a mega deep cell or two, however) to run the small battery chargers and the CB radio. My shortwave is up and running.

I will have to wait to talk to the neighbors, whom I rarely see, much less know.  I can just imagine the words that would come out of their mouths if I were to mention to them the notion of forming a security “company” and establishing a perimeter.  “That old retired Marine down the road is nuts!”

So that’s what I’ve got to say.  I do hope it at least stimulates some thought for those who are starting out trying to prepare, as I am.  All of this shows me that one “problem” in this “survival” business leads to several more, and they in turn lead to even more problems.  Lots to do. So I’m glad I’m retired.  I’ve got time to think about it.  If I were rich, I could do a lot more and likely in a far away place, but as it is, we do with what we have.   I have to use the lessons taught to every Marine:  Improvise, Adapt, Overcome.  

Long Live America.  Keep the Faith. - “Two Dogs”, Col. USMCR (ret.) in West Virginia

I see it several times a week: What gun should I get? How much ammo should I have? How big should my garden be? Should I get gold or silver? And on and on it goes, week after week. More and more people are becoming “aware,” and are seeking the advice of those of us who have “been there, done that.” There is so much great information out there to answer the plethora of those types of questions. Invariably, someone eventually asks, “how do I afford that?” There are other variations of this question as well, but it all boils down to the same thing in the end. Many of us, including myself, are not monetarily wealthy. Considering that most of the country is in debt, that means that many survivalists, especially those new to the subject, are in debt. With the sudden realizations smacking them about the head and chest, combined with the required urgency of the situation, people want to get the necessary preparations in short order, but are not sure how to do it with limited funds.

It can be done. Just like your 401(k) investments, it happens a little bit at a time. I do not know a single survivalist that just bought into the life with just one check from the checkbook. This is not a life you just buy into in a day. So rest assured that those of us who are well prepared did so over time, with trail and error, money, sweat, and bruised egos. You have an advantage that we did not have – the internet. You can learn from us, from our mistakes and our wisdom through the internet and gain valuable insight, hopefully without many monetary mistakes. Absorbing this knowledge is your first key to being able to “afford” preparations.

Beans, bullets, Band-Aids has been articulated many times and in many ways. Now, how do I afford it all? A budget and prioritizing are the answers. Did I just hear you moan? I am sorry, but you cannot do it without a budget and setting your priorities to pay down debt and acquire preparations. All other things go to the bottom of the list. I have never in my life made more than $40,000 in a year. Looking at my last 22 years of taxable income statements, it shows that my average yearly pay is just over $18,000 per year. This is not because I do not have the ability to earn much more, it is because I choose to live life and not be a slave to societal pressures to have a career. I have still managed to prepare with miniscule funds, debt, and a family by setting my priorities and keeping a strict budget.

So, how do I get started?

1. Stop using credit cards and credit – forever!
2. Stop frivolous spending immediately – no eating out, no movies, no cable, no manicures, no vacations, no guys’ night out, etc. Either you are serious about preparing, or you are a party-goer. Which is it?
3. Establish an emergency fund, in cash of at least $1,000. This is not spending money. This is to cover an inevitable visit from Murphy, Sod, or Finagle.
4. Document every dollar you spend to find out where your money is going.
5. Create a budget that outlines your debts and expenses. This should be prioritized with Food, Water, Shelter, and Transportation at the top. These are the bills that get paid first. Other bills, debts, and expenses get laid out in order of importance. When you add up your bills and expenses, if the number is larger than your bring home paycheck, you need to get another job. If the number is smaller, this money is used for getting your preparations. If your total is equal to you take home pay, tighten you belt.
6. Tighten you belt – go over your expenses and see where you can cut. Everyone has things they can cut. Eliminate anything that is not necessary. Shop for better deals on phone services, electricity, etc. Change the thermostat a few degrees, unplug appliances when not in use, shop at different stores, use coupons, purchase used, etc.

Now that you are started with properly managing your money, it is time to make lists for preparations. Food should be the first thing on the list, followed closely by defense (guns, ammo, and training) and medical supplies and training. Clothes, shoes, coats, etc. should also be on the list along with communications gear. There are plenty of other things to put on your lists, and much of it has been discussed on this blog. Now that you have your lists of things to get, research real costs of these items and document your findings.

What do I mean by real costs? In the business world, this is called total cost and is the actual cost of an item, shipping, storage, and upkeep of the item. You need to know all costs involved for every item on your lists. Fifty pounds of triple cleaned oats may cost you $12.50 from you local supplier, but to put it up long-term, you will need a bucket, mylar bag, and oxygen absorbers. You also need to know where you are going to store it, and any associated costs to keep it stored. Some items may require a climate-controlled environment for long-term sustainability and this cost may be separate from your home costs depending on your situation.

You can severely cut into the total cost of preparations by researching, pooling resources with other preppers, and working as a team to put up those preparations. You can get bulk discounts by purchasing case lots, pallet lots, and purchasing seconds. This goes not just for food, but also for guns, ammo, clothes, seeds, construction materials, etc. Write down the price quotes you get, the name of the business, the phone number, and with whom you spoke. After the first few calls, it will get easier and become enjoyable. If you have friends, break up the lists and put others in charge of researching a subject. A big thing to remember when researching your future purchases: businesses must sell products to stay in business, but you are not required to buy – most things are negotiable.

So, how did I do it? Using all of the above, I started by allotting $10 per weekly trip to the grocery store to get canned goods. These were put away for emergencies. Other money was saved until I had enough to purchase an item at the top of my list (i.e. a rifle), and then the process started over. Later, I learned that I needed to set a budget for my weekly grocery trip and make a list for that as well. Since I was keeping track of every dollar I spent, I noticed that my weekly shopping trip expenditures were erratic, fluctuating between $90 and $190 per week plus my $10 preps. So, I made a list for the week’s groceries and set a [weekly] budget of $125. The first few months of this were hard. I had to make concessions, purchase lesser cuts of meat, off-brands, or simply cut certain things altogether. After a year of doing it this way, we were spending less than $75 per week to feed a family of four. What do you think we do with the extra money we were spending at the grocery store? That’s right, it buys more preps every week.

I sold my full sized four-door truck with payments, which freed up $430 per month, and paid cash for an early 1990s model beater S-10 Blazer. Is it as nice as my truck was? Not even close. Does it get me where I need to go? Absolutely. What do you think I did with the extra $430 per month? Right again, I bought more preps. Every time we pay off a debt, the money we were paying towards it gets put towards another debt, until it is paid off. Then all of that money goes to the next debt and so on, until suddenly, no more debt. Every extra dollar we got, paid for a prep or went to a debt.

I also save the required money and purchase exactly what I want, not something to get me by. Always buy what you want. Never purchase something that you think you want or something inferior. I see others do this all the time. This is the best way to waste your money. I see others with slim budgets purchase a Mosin Nagant and a tin of ammo, simply because they wanted to have something, when they really wanted a M1A or an AR-15. If I want an expensive rifle, or high quality tent, I stay patient and save the required amount of money and get exactly what I want. I learned this lesson the hard way, so you shouldn’t have to.

The hard economic times that I--and many others--warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer.

This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it.

Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term "white trash" comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his "austere" budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children's school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate!

This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.)

It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin' Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their "Energy" drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don't be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies.

In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: "The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe."

Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression:

• Work cheerfully and diligently. It is slackers that find themselves unemployed first.
• Get debt free and stay debt free. Take on no new indebtedness, and pay down the debts you already have.
• Learn to distinguish essentials from non-essentials.
• Write a budget, and stick to it. Whittle it, as necessary, to avoid debt.
• Sell off your useless Beanie babies and assorted knickknacks.
• Increase your savings
• Build up your food storage
• Diversify your investments. Don't put all your money in one bank.
• Check your bank or S&L's safety rating at TheStreet.com. Check your stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and insurers, while you are at it.)
• Hedge your investments with some tangibles
• Sell off any vacation or rental properties that don't have retreat potential
• If you move, then it should be to a place near a secure job, and preferably to a piece of farm or ranch land that provides some self-sufficiency.
• Develop a second stream of income.
• Release yourself from your addictions. Pray fervently, and if need be, seek help.
• Plant a garden.
• Stay in shape.
• Be willing to accept work that is lower paying or less appealing
• Be charitable.
• Most importantly: Get right with God. (Believe, repent of your sin, confess Jesus as your savior, and be baptized.) It is time to pray hard, folks! I believe in predestination. If you are reading this, and feel convicted to make change in your life, then you are fulfilling what God has had planned for you since "before the foundations of the Earth."

Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up.

One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative's basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, "rolled up sleeves" work.

Part 1 - Introduction

History will repeat itself, for history has shown, that history will repeat itself. Unfortunately my wife is n