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« Letter Re: Sources for Inexpensive FAL Clone Rifles |Main| Letter Re: Turning Your Trinkets Into Storage Food » Friday May 2 2008Letter Re: Indian Tribal Reservation Boundaries as an Issue in Choosing Retreat Locales
Dear Jim:
Also, take a look at this SurvivalBlog post that I made in June of 2006. « Letter Re: Do It Yourself Coffee Roasting |Main| Note from JWR: » Wednesday April 30 2008Letter Re: Retreat Locales in the Eastern United States
Mr. Rawles: I see that [in your Recommended
Retreat Areas page] you only list information
for retreat selection in 19 western states. Do you not think other states are
worthy
of
retreat locations? JWR Replies: I consider Missouri marginal as a retreat locale, primarily because of it population density. The state of Missouri is on the safer (lower population density) side of the Mississippi River but it is still far from ideal, since the state is bisected by the Missouri River and the dramatic drop in US population density is west of the Missouri. (As I will discuss later in this reply.) My choice of reviewing retreat locales in just 19 western states has been discussed a few times before in SurvivalBlog, but for the benefit of the many newcomers, I will reiterate: After much consideration, all of the eastern states were intentionally excluded for my recommendations because they are all either downwind of nuclear targets and/or are in areas with excessive population density. This wasn't just the result of subjective bias. I try to use the dispassionate mindset of an actuarial accountant. Take a look at The
Lights of the U.S. photo
maps.
These montages of satellite photos make it clear that most of America's population
is east of the Missouri River and is highly urbanized.The population density
of the U.S. is dramatically lower in the west. In troubled
times fewer people means fewer problems. In the event of a social upheaval,
being west of the Missouri River will mean a statistically much lower chance
of coming face to face with lawless rioters
or looters When The Schumer Hits The Fan (WTSHTF). The northeastern states depend on nuclear power plants for 47% of their electricity. South Carolina is similarly dependent. This is an unacceptable level of high technology systems dependence, particularly in light of the emerging terrorist threat. You must also consider that virtually all of the eastern states are downwind of major nuclear targets. In a full scale exchange, the eastern US would be a bad place to be. See the target lists, fallout projections, and other data at Richard Fleetwood's excellent SurvivalRing web site. Not only are there lots of nuclear targets in the east, but easterners will also get considerable additional fallout carried on the winds from strikes farther west--including SAC bomber bases, the strategic missile fields (in Montana, the Dakotas, and northern Colorado), Cheyenne Mountain (Colorado), Offutt AFB (Nebraska), and others. The majority of the military targets are expected to be hit with ground bursts, which are the type that produce fallout. Because of the Coriolis Effect, the prevailing winds in most of the United States are from west to east, so the farther east you live, the greater the accumulated fallout that you are likely to receive. Sorry! My general advice for easterners: If for one reason or another you are stuck in the northeast, then consider New Hampshire or Vermont. They are both gun friendly and have more self-sufficient lifestyle. But unless you have some compelling reason to stay in the East, I most strongly encourage you to Go West! With all that said, there are some areas in the eastern US that will be safer than others (like parts of Tennessee and Maine), and there are ways to mitigate the risks that I mentioned.: Risk Mitigation The risk posed by the higher population density of the eastern states can be mitigated by both carefully choosing your retreat property (look for bypassed areas that are far from "channelized areas" and lines of drift") and by having heavily-manned 24/7/360 armed and vigilant security at your retreat. (See my novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse" for a detailed description of what might be needed to mount such a guard.) This will of course mean extra mouths to feed--which in turn dictates the expense of extra storage food, extra gardening space, extra housing, and extra stored fuel. But this could be viable, especially if you are wealthy. The other obvious risk mitigation is to construct a blast/fallout shelter with a forced-air HEPA filter. If your house already has a basement, and you are willing to do some of the work yourself, a retrofit can be done for under $5,000. Constructing a new, dedicated shelter can be a $15,000 to $70,000 proposition, depending how large and elaborate you want to make it. The folks at Safecastle have extensive experience in building such shelters, tailored for all budgets. They specialize in combination storm/nuke/gun vault shelters. I highly recommend them. « Letter Re: The British Perspective on Food Storage and Preparedness |Main| Note From JWR: » Friday April 25 2008Letter Re: Fuel Rationing as a Deciding Factor in Activating a Remote RetreatHi Jim, JWR Replies: For ease of handling, I don't recommend storing anything larger than 20 gallon drums. Moving drums that are any larger requires special equipment and they are very difficult to quickly load in the back of pickup truck. (A 20 gallon drum is fairly easy for two men to handle, with the proper orchestration. ) The bulk of your diesel should be stored in an underground tank, preferably with its filler head and pump handle camouflaged. The usual provisos: Consult your local fire code for storage limits and beware of fire safety when storing fuel cans or drums. Storing them in an attached garage is a bad idea. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Two Letters Re: Recommendations on a Reliable AK and a Competent AK Trainer » Survival Real Estate Market UpdateShopping for Retreat Property in Rural Western Maine - From Richard Frost in Maine I'm a survivalist Realtor in Western Maine. I will work with buyers on the
many retreat-type properties in the foothills of the northern Appalachians
generally
within 100
miles or so of the 100 year old agency I'm associated with. « Letter Re: Food Riots in Haiti |Main| Note from JWR: » Wednesday April 16 2008The Precepts of My Survivalist PhilosophyIn the past week I've had three newcomers to SurvivalBlog.com write and ask me to summarize my world view. One of them asked: "I could spend days looking through [the] archives of your [many months of] blog posts. But there are hundreds of them. Can you tell me where you stand, in just a page? What distinguishes the "Rawlesian" philosophy from other [schools of] survivalist thought?" I'll likely add a few items to this list as time goes on, but here is a general summary of my precepts: Modern Society is Increasingly Complex, Interdependent, and Fragile. With each passing year, technology progresses and chains of interdependency lengthen. In the past 30 years, chains of retail supply have grown longer and longer. The food on your supermarket shelf does not come from local farmers. It often comes from hundreds or even thousands of miles away. This has created an alarming vulnerability to disruption. Simultaneously, global population is still increasing in a near geometrical progression. At some point that must end, most likely with a sudden and sharp drop in population. The lynchpin is the grid. Without functioning power grids, modern industrial societies will collapse within weeks. Civilization is Just a Thin Veneer. In the absence of law an order, men quickly revert to savagery. As was illustrated by the rioting and looting that accompanied disasters in the past three decades, the transition from tranquility to absolute barbarism can occur overnight. People expect tomorrow to be just like today, and they act accordingly. But then comes a unpredictable disaster that catches the vast majority unprepared. The average American family has four days worth of food on hand. When that food is gone, we'll soon see the thin veneer stripped away. People Run in Herds and Packs, but Both Follow Natural Lines of Drift. Most people are sheep ("sheeple"). A few are wolves that prey on others. But just a few of us are more like sheepdogs--we think independently, and instead of predation, we are geared toward protecting and helping others. People naturally follow natural lines of drift--the path of least resistance. When the Schumer hits the fan, 99% of urbanites will try to leave the cities on freeways. The highways and freeways will soon resemble parking lots. This means that you need to be prepared to both get out of town ahead of the rush and to use lightly-traveled back roads. Plan, study and practice. Lightly Populated Areas are Safer than High Density Areas. With a few exceptions, less population means fewer problems. WTSHTF, there will be a mass exodus from the cities. Think of it as an army that is spreading out across a battlefield: The wider that they are spread, the less effective that they are. The inverse square law hasn't been repealed. Show Restraint, But Always Have Recourse to Lethal Force. My father often told me, "It is better to have a gun and not need it, than need a gun, and not have it." I urge readers to use less than lethal means when safe and practicable, but at times there is not a satisfactory substitute for well-aimed lead going down range at high velocity. There is Strength in Numbers. Rugged individualism is all well and good, but it takes ore than one man to defend a retreat. Effective retreat defense necessitates having at least two families to provide 24/7 perimeter security. But of course every individual added means having another mouth to feed. Absent having an unlimited budget and an infinite larder, this necessitates striking a balance when deciding the size of a retreat group. There are Moral Absolutes. The foundational morality of the civilized world is best summarized in the Ten Commandments. Moral relativism and secular humanism are slippery slopes. The terminal moraine at the base of these slopes is a rubble pile consisting of either despotism and pillage, or anarchy and the depths of depravity. I believe that it takes both faith and friends to survive perilous times. For more background on that, see my Prayer page. Racism Ignores Reason. People should be judged as individuals. Anyone that make blanket statements about other races is ignorant that there are both good and bad individuals in all groups. I have accepted The Great Commission with sincerity."Go forth into all nations" means exactly that: all nations. OBTW, I feel grateful that SurvivalBlog is now read in more than 100 countries. I have been given a bully pulpit, and I intend to use it for good and edifying purposes. Skills Beat Gadgets and Practicality Beats Style. The modern world is full of pundits, poseurs, and Mall Ninjas. Preparedness is not just about accumulating a pile of stuff. You need practical skills, and those only come with study, training, and practice. Any armchair survivalist can buy a set of stylish camouflage fatigues and an M4gery Carbine encrusted with umpteen accessories. Style points should not be mistaken for genuine skills and practicality. Plentiful Water and Good Soil are Crucial. Modern mechanized farming, electrically pumped irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides can make deserts bloom. But when the grid goes down, deserts and marginal farmland will revert to their natural states. In my estimation, the most viable places to survive in the midst of a long term societal collapse will be those with reliable summer rains and rich topsoil. Tangibles Trump Conceptuals. Modern fiat currencies are generally accepted, but have essentially no backing. Because they are largely a byproduct of interest bearing debt, modern currencies are destined to inflation. In the long run, inflation dooms fiat currencies to collapse. The majority of your assets should be invested in productive farm land and other tangibles such as useful hand tools. Only after you have your key logistics squared away, anything extra should be invested in silver and gold. Governments Tend to Expand their Power to the Point that They Do Harm. In SurvivalBlog, I often warn of the insidious tyranny of the Nanny State. If the state where you live becomes oppressive, then don't hesitate to relocate. Vote with your feet! There is Value in Redundancy. A common saying of my readers is: "Two is one, and one is none." You must be prepared to provide for your family in a protracted period of societal disruption. That means storing up all of the essential "beans, bullets, and Band-Aids" in quantity. If commerce is disrupted by a disaster, at least in the short term you will only have your own logistics to fall back on. The more that you have stored, the more that you will have available for barter and charity. A Deep Larder is Essential. Food storage is one of the key preparations that I recommend. Even if you have a fantastic self-sufficient garden and pasture ground, you must always have food storage that you can fall back on in the event that your crops fail due to drought, disease, or infestation. Tools Without Training Are Almost Useless. Owning a gun doesn't make someone a "shooter" any more than owning a surfboard makes someone a surfer. With proper training and practice, you will be miles ahead of the average citizen. Get advanced medical training. Get the best firearms training that you can afford. Learn about amateur radio from your local affiliated ARRL club. Practice raising a vegetable garden each summer. Some skills are only perfected over a period of years. Old Technologies are Appropriate Technologies. In the event of a societal collapse, 19th Century (or earlier) technologies such as a the blacksmith's forge, the treadle sewing machine, and the horse-drawn plow will be far easier to re-construct than modern technologies. Charity is a Moral Imperative. As a Christian, I feel morally obligated to assist others that are less fortunate. Following the Old Testament laws of Tzedakah (charity and tithing), I believe that my responsibility begins with my immediate family and expands in successive rings to supporting my immediate neighborhood and church, to my community, and beyond, as resources allow. In short, my philosophy is to "give until it hurts" in times of disaster. Buy Life Assurance, not Life Insurance. Self-sufficiency and self-reliance are many-faceted. You need to systematically provide for Water, Food, Shelter, Fuel, First Aid, Commo, and, if need be, the tools to enforce Rule 308. Live at Your Retreat Year-Round. If your financial and family circumstances allow it, I strongly recommend that you relocate to a safe area and live there year-round. This has several advantages, most notably that will prevent burglary of your retreat logistics and allow you to regularly tend to gardens, orchards, and livestock. It will also remove the stress of timing a "Get Out of Dodge" trip at the11th hour. If circumstances dictate that you can't live at your retreat year round, then at least have a caretaker and stock the vast majority of your logistics in advance, since you may only have one trip there before roads are impassable. Exploit Force Multipliers. Night vision gear, intrusion detection sensors, and radio communications equipment are key force multipliers. Because these use high technology they cannot be depended upon in a long term collapse, but in the short term, they can provide a big advantage. Some low technologies like barbed wire and defensive road cables also provide advantages and can last for several decades. Invest Your Sweat Equity. Even if some of you have a millionaire's budget, you need to learn how to do things for yourself, and be willing to get your hands dirty. In a societal collapse, the division of labor will be reduced tremendously. Odds are that the only "skilled craftsmen" available to build a shed, mend a fence, shuck corn, repair an engine, or pitch manure will be you.and your family. A byproduct of sweat equity is muscle tone and proper body weight. Hiring someone to deliver three cords of firewood is a far cry from felling, cutting, hauling, splitting, and stacking it yourself. Choose Your Friends Wisely. Associate yourself with skilled doers, not "talkers." Seek out people that share your outlook and morality. Living in close confines with other families is sure to cause friction but that will be minimized if you share a common religion and norms of behavior.You can't learn every skill yourself. Assemble a team that includes members with medical knowledge, tactical skills, electronics experience, and traditional practical skills. There is No Substitute for Mass. Mass stops bullets. Mass stops gamma radiation. Mass stops (or at least slows down ) bad guys from entering a home and depriving its residents of life and property. Sandbags are cheap, so buy plenty of them. When planning your retreat house, think: medieval castle. (See the SurvivalBlog Archives for the many articles and letters on Retreat Architecture.) Always Have a Plan B and a Plan C. Regardless of your pet scenario and your personal grand plan of survival, you need to be flexible and adaptable. Situations and circumstances change. Always keep a G.O.O.D. kit handy, even if you are fortunate enough to live at your retreat year-round. Be Frugal. I grew up in a family that still remembered both our pioneer history and the more recent lessons of the Great Depression. One of our family mottos is: "Use it up, wear it out, make do, or do without." Some Things are Worth Fighting For. I encourage my readers to avoid trouble, most importantly via relocation to safe areas where trouble is unlikely to come to visit. But there may come an unavoidable day that you have to make a stand to defend your own family or your neighbors. Further, if you value your liberty, then be prepared to fight for it, both for yourself and for the sake of your progeny. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Food Riots in Haiti » Letter Re: The Survivor Mindset
Dear Mr. Rawles; I am a Christian, a true believer of God’s saving
grace, yet when the Schumer hits
the fan I am going to survive or die trying. I think a lot of people need to
re-evaluate their thinking about a time of
total collapse. At that point, you will have to become good spirited yet know
and believe that you will do what it takes to survive. There are going to be
cold nights, days of being in the rain watching your home, and sweating because
there is no air conditioning. You can provide charity and help to people you
truly trust. I know that sounds selfish but it isn’t. If you start to
give food and other goods away [to strangers] you become a target and the thieves
will come! If you decide to take them to a church then someone at that church
is
going
to know you had it and again you will become a target. When people become desperate
they will do anything. I hope folks realize that when these times come, a trip
to town will be a heart attack event, because driving or walking down a road
and not having proper recon is a nightmare waiting to happen. « Letter Re: Caustic Chlorine Troubles, and Using Dry Chlorine for Water Treatment |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday April 11 2008The ABCs of WTSHTF, by Mark B.
The ABCs of When the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF.)
aren’t what you have prepared, acquired or stowed but even more basic
in the preparation processes that we sometimes take for granted. « Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday April 4 2008Economic Climate Change: The Long Winter May Begin This SummerI've had several consulting clients contact me in recent weeks, all with notes of fear in their voices. They realize that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they cannot properly isolate and articulate the problem. I haven't been able to calm them, however, because to an extent I share their anxiety. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that we sense is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate. America is clearly headed for a recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But this nascent recession in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone. Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures. Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. (They can't do that any more than I could predict the bends in the road ahead by keeping a chart of the preceding left and right turns of my car's steering wheel. My apologies for any offense to my friend The Chartist Gnome, but you are fooling yourself.) Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.) The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse. I think that veteran market analyst Jim Rogers had it right, in a recent interview. Take a few minutes to watch that video. Jim Rogers sees the big picture. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that he has gone off somewhere to hunker in a bunker. "Big Picture" Implications As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend lon, effectively use debt compounded upon debt. Many, many hedge funds will be bankrupted before the end of 2008. Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDS). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so derivatives contract holders have not yet experienced a major recession or a depression. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not ever experienced a derivatives full scale "blow up", but I predict that when it happens, it will be spectacular. The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on he street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse last summer, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama. The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even whole governments will go under as this tumult plays out. The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.) Risk Mitigation Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.) Since large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business. In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Economic Climate Change: The Long Winter May Begin This Summer » Weekly Survival Real Estate Market UpdateWe are presently heading into the spring selling market that should yield
some of the best prices seen in years in rural America, especially in the Pacific
Northwest region, in particular. At this point, especially in small towns in
the region most folks have realized that their golden egg is about to hatch
a goose and that they should have sold their property two years ago while there
was still a chance to sell at reasonable prices. A lot of folks waited and
kept their property prices too high and listened to others who spoke of the
market "coming back soon" and "don't worry." Well, now
they are scared. I moonlight as a gunsmith at a local gun shop and during the
two weeks preceding Christmas last year we sold absolutely no firearms at all.
What we did do and continue to do each week is pawn and redeem items for folks
just to make it to their next paycheck. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| The Homemade Alcohol Stove and The Wonder Box, by LeAnne » Wednesday April 2 2008Letter Re: Some Offshore Retreat Considerations
Mr. Rawles, A good set of links on finding a homestead that may be useful to your readers
can be found at The Mother Earth News web
site. « Letter Re: A Special Antibiotics-By-Mail Offer for SurvivalBlog Readers |Main| Letter Re: Learn How to "Roll Your Own" Ammo » Tuesday April 1 2008Letter Re: Sword Ban Begins on April 6th in the United Kingdom James: JWR Replies: The UK government is clearly doing its best to put its citizenry at the mercy of criminals. Soon enough, your ever-tightening Country Code will have your self defense options reduced to just butter knives, ASBOs, cricket bats, and harsh language. It is now abundantly clear that violent crime is already at unacceptable levels in urban areas of the UK. In the event of an economic collapse, things could resemble the recently-released Doomsday movie. Under those circumstances the majority will fall prey to a minority that is younger, stronger, and uninhibited by moral compunctions. I must reassert that it is clearly time to take the gap. The US and New Zealand still have immigration programs that are advantageous. Get out of England soon, while these programs are still available. « Lessons From Fiction--A Critique of "I Am Legend", by Michael Z. Williamson |Main| Note from JWR: » Monday March 31 2008News from Wall Street and Capitol Hill--The Mother Of All Bailouts Begins to Grow
Last week, the mainstream media described the latest expansion of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), but they politely refrained from calling this what it is: socialism, plain and simple. The grand plan, as it stands now, is to bail out not just consumer banks, but also investment banks, with taxpayer dollars. They are effectively making our life savings and our future earnings surety for a bunch of idiotic contrapreneurs' loans on everything from flat top duplexes to McMansions. These were houses that the contrapreneurs bought, that they could never really afford unless the market continued to rise at an artificial rate. They bought these houses with the intention of "flipping" them, but then the market topped out, and the "easy money" party ended. At least those hated fascist dictators like Mussolini had the common sense to nationalize viable, productive companies. But now Ben Bernanke is busy nationalizing a slew of corporations with negative net worth. This is absolute lunacy! Here are four examples of the mainstream's view:
All of these calls for regulation, new government agencies, and greater scrutiny might outwardly sound well-reasoned, but they ignore some inescapable underlying problems: We have a fiat currency that is based on debt, we have a banking system with fictional fractional reserves, we have a derivatives market that is a $500 trillion casino, and we have a national treasury that is backed by wishful thinking--certainly not by anything tangible. The other key point that seems to have escaped the mainstream media is that this new regulatory power is being handed to the Federal Reserve, which is a private banking cartel, not a government agency. They are no more "Federal" than the Federal Express parcel courier company. So this isn't just socialism. This is nothing short of corporate-controlled socialism--where a handful of banking corporations are given access to the Federal tax coffers to bail out other institutions and then, even further, they are given sweeping regulatory powers. This power grab is deemed "necessary" by circumstances that the Federal Reserve itself created! Somewhere, somehow, somebody stands to make a lot of money in this process. Cui bono? I'll wager that it won't be the American taxpayers that benefit. As economist Mish Shedlock observes, this is like putting the Fox in Charge of the Henhouse. Mish summed up the current mess succinctly: "The biggest, most reckless credit experiment in history has started to implode. It's far too late to stop a complete systemic collapse now. Granting new powers to the agency most responsible for the mess simply does not make any sense." Secrecy is another concern. In a recent e-mail, SurvivalBlog reader KAF commented: "We should be greatly concerned about the fact that the Federal Reserve has provided public release anonymity to the institutions who are taking '30 day' never ending loans. We'll now never know if the institutions we deal with are truly solvent and credible, This new"confidentiality" allows the Fed. to manipulate reserves on a routine basis. We'll never know if this country's Federal Reserve is or is not heading for bankruptcy unless we use the tests of consumer spending and commodity pricing as indicators." She hit the nail on the head. At the same time that the press is howling for "greater transparency" in banking, and writing exposes of "predatory lending practices", the Powers That Be are drawing the veil of secrecy over lending institutions. They'd rather treat us like mushrooms--keeping us in the dark and feeding us barn waste--than risk a panic by letting the public know the real depth of the liquidity crisis and its collateral effects. Instead of government platitudes, do you want some figures to chew on? Look at this Federal Reserve web page. The negative numbers at the bottom of the "Non-loaned Reserves" column speak volumes. Without the newly-created Federal Reserve "emergency lending mechanisms", many banks would be absolutely bankrupt. As you can see, the bankers are swimming in red ink. There is now a huge risk of bank runs, but this threat is being ignored by the mainstream media. Mark my words: There are bank runs coming. The fact is that the global lending system is essentially broken. Artificially lowering interest rates won't fix it, when bankers are afraid to lend. As I've previously noted, the bankers are afraid to lend because so much re-packaging and reshuffling of debt has gone on in the past seven years that nobody knows who owes what to whom, and precisely what assets are underlying these exotic debt "packages." Meanwhile, the bankers have learned that the big insurance firms like Fitch, Moody's and S&P were in on the swindle. We now know that they colluded with their mortgage firm buddies to inflate assets and deflate risks in a masterpiece of legerdemain that would make Enron's accountants proud. The bottom line is the the entire world economy is is in deep, deep trouble. Without financing, the Big Machine is grinding to a halt. The next few years will probably see the economy plunge into a deep recession, if not a full blown depression. The current headlines are just a foreshadowing of the real crisis to come. The MOAB will grow and grow, eventually bailing out far more than just banks. There will be brokerage houses, insurance firms, S&Ls, credit unions, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, and possibly even muni bonds and pension funds are all lined up, ready to reach into our wallets. Once the government starts down the slippery slope of bailout-socialism schemes, they will perforce spread to more and more institutions. And, as I've previously noted, the public coffers will be insufficient to cover the inestimable costs of the MOAB. So this mean that Uncle Sam will monetize the difference. They'll just create the needed "dollars" out of thin air. This will be outrageously inflationary, at all levels. All of this is not going unnoticed by European and Asian bankers. They can see that the dollar is set for mass inflation, so they are dumping dollars as fast as they can. It is no wonder that the US Dollar Index has plummeted. When I last checked, it took $1.58 to buy one Euro! The foreign bankers aren't stupid. Upcoming auctions of US Treasury paper will languish with very few takers. I predict that in less than a year, the Treasury yields will have to be pumped up substantially to attract enough bidders to get the needed financing to cover the budget deficit. We could see double digit rates--a la the late 1970s--in the not too distant future. All of these macro-level implications might seem fairly abstract, so let me put them in real world terms and take the risk of extrapolating on some trends that I've observed: There will be a recession, and it will be deep, and long-lasting. A recession will mean that there will be some big corporate layoffs. Be ready. There will be bank runs and banking "holidays". Be ready. There will be huge flows of "bailout" funds that will effectively nationalize many industries. Be ready. There will probably be a stock market collapse. Be ready. There will be a further collapse in residential real estate that will make the recent declines seem small, by comparison. Be ready. Credit delinquencies and foreclosures (on car loans, home loans, credit card bills, etc.) will dramatically increase. Be ready. There will be a collapse of the commercial real estate market. Be ready. Even though the credit available for IPOs and private mergers and acquisitions has dried up, there will be news of some large and seemingly inexplicable acquisitions in the near future, all sanctioned by and in some cases, underwritten by, and even funded by, the Federal government. Be ready. There will be shortages of key commodities including fuel and food. Be ready. Strapped for cash, America's highway, rail, water, sewer, telecommunications, and power infrastructures will degenerate. Be ready. There will be mass inflation of the US Dollar that will devalue any dollar denominated investments. Be ready. And now, to further extrapolate, (with a lower level of confidence): All of the aforementioned economic dislocation and surging inflation might trigger mass protests, riots, looting, and arson in the cities. Be ready. There may then be massive out-migration from the cities. Be ready. Wars have been known to follow close on the heels of depressions and financial crises, so there may be a war, possibly big enough to require another draft. Be ready. As I've written many times before, the real lynchpin to worry about is the power grid. If the grid goes down, then all bets are off. Be vigilant, be well-stocked with a deep larder, and be self-sufficient. Store extra for charity. If you can afford to, establish a survival retreat in a lightly-populated region, and if possible, live there year-round. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Family Learning for Preparedness, by T.D. » Saturday March 29 2008Letter Re: Advice on Purchasing Priorities For a Tight Budget
Mr. Rawles, OBTW, I feel like California is turning into a commune, I literally have less freedoms than I had recently thought. - V. from California JWR Replies: Given the mild climate on the California coast, a water filter is much more important than cold weather gear for your next purchase. I recommend the American-made Aqua Rain brand. These are similar to the Big Berkey (imported from England), but they only cost half as much. (The US Dollar's recent slip versus the British Pound has sadly further widened this price gap.) Please compare prices with our advertisers such as Safecastle, JRH Enterprises, and Ready Made Resources, before buying elsewhere. Next, consider buying from our affiliate advertisers like Lehman's and Nitro-Pak. OBTW, if you contact any of our advertisers, then please mention where you saw their ad. Thanks! « Letter Re: Advice on Constructing a Secure Underground Shelter |Main| Note from JWR: » Friday March 28 2008Post-Doomsday: Dress Incognito, Play Down Your Preps, by Ranger Man
Rawles, at SurvivalBlog, had a
good post earlier this month that included
reader-submitted comments on survival lessons from the homeless. Check the
link to read the advice, which mostly contains thoughts on street survival
as the homeless see it, how to score a free shower, etc. Let’s flip this
line of thinking around and brainstorm on how staying dirty could be a SHTF survival
technique. Similarly, remember that television
series from 1984 called “V”? The one where lizard-like aliens
came to Earth pretending to be humans for the purpose of harvesting our bodies
for food? There’s
one scene in particular that I remember where one dude was smuggling some people
in his truck. He comes upon a road block and quickly starts munching a raw
onion. When roadblock dude starts questioning him, he is quickly taken aback
by the onion breath. He moved the truck along quickly, never finding the people
buried in the back. « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Constructing a Secure Underground Shelter » Weekly Survival Real Estate Market UpdateWe have some great news for you folks that have been wondering where all the approved retreats disappeared to, on the Idaho page of SurvivalRealty.com. (This is SurvivalBlog's sister site that JWR put together specifically to help SurvivalBlog readers to find their own survival retreats.) More than 15 Idaho listings have now been posted! You can view them here. In order to comply with guidelines set forth by the Idaho Real Estate
Commission, although the listings are available on any public MLS One more important change is that the Tactical Analysis and other non-PC type information will not be posted, even though the information is on a private web page for customers and clients. Only the standard MLS page will be displayed. For that technical and other additional info you'll need to contact the Retreat Evaluator Todd Savage. This is done out of respect to the sellers, their agents, and brokers alike. Moving on to northern Idaho, There is a beautiful 40 acre parcel on the North Bench just above Bonners Ferry, that is going to be coming up for sale or trade soon. It features about 20 acres of rolling timbered hills and draws, and about 20 acres which was at one time plowed and tilled by horses. There are multiple building sites, plentiful game, and majestic views of the Selkirk Mountain range. Sun exposure and the micro climate of the North Bench area lend the property to be turned into a small community based farm, bed and breakfast, or a combination of both! The seller wishes to be discreet about marketing so information will only be emailed out to pre-screened folks and will not be posted on SurvivalRealty.com, other than a brief mention here and there. The price has been set starting at $275,000. The seller is willing to trade for a retreat in Colorado as well. Please e-mail me if you wish to be included for further information on this incredible property. Over the next week I will be posting many more approved retreats on the private 'customer only' pages on SurvivalRealty.com. Look for them when mentioned each day in SurvivalBlog's Odds 'n Sod's section! OBTW, prices are becoming more realistic with each passing day, and the market will be flooded with listings this spring with some incredible deals. I plan to host several 'Approved Retreat' tours of the Palouse Hills, Boundary County, and northwestern Montana locales this spring and summer. Please e-mail me to be included as well for detailed information and dates. The tours will be limited to 20 reservations each, on a first-come, first-served basis. If you have always wanted to see the 'real deal' this would be the time! Congratulations to "Mr. Echo" who recently closed on a spectacular off the grid retreat "somewhere in north central Idaho". - Todd Savage Certified Retreat
Evaluation Consultant - Realtor, Real Team Real Estate Center
« Letter Re: Advice on Long Term Ammunition Storage Techniques |Main| Letter Re: Biodiesel, Retreat Vehicle Fuel Flexibility, and Power Generation » Thursday March 27 2008Letter Re: Choosing a State for Relocation
James,
From 1 to 10, the top 10 towns rated were: « Jim's Quote of the Day: |Main| Three Letters Re: Use of Force in Retreat Security--Planning for Rules of Engagement » Wednesday March 26 2008Letter Re: Choosing a State for Relocation
Dear Jim, I am so very glad my parents made the decision to relocate from the UK to Canada, and then to the United States. Just keep in mind there's nowhere left to retreat to at this point. Liberty must make its stand here. - Michael Z. Williamson « Two Letters Re: Some Offshore Retreat Considerations, by P. Traveler |Main| My Seven Favorite North American Edible Wild Plants, by Paul C. » Tuesday March 25 2008Letter Re: Deep Family Roots Versus "Ideal Location" When Considering Relocation
Good Evening, JWR Replies: As I described in my book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation, you cannot put a price tag on having deep roots in a community! Even if you were not known personally, if you are related and share a distinct surname with "one of the pioneer families", then you have an exceedingly valuable "in" in a rural area. This factor should weigh heavily in your choice of retreat locales. My main objections to moving to the eastern United States are the generally higher population density, and the unfavorable downwind position of the eastern states in the event of a full scale nuclear exchange. You can fairly well mitigate both of of those drawbacks by: 1.) Building a home fallout/storm shelter (typically by upgrading an existing basement, or building a stand-alone shelter, such as those built by Safecastle), and 2.) By teaming up with contiguous neighbors or "doubling up" with another family that would share your house with you after TSHTF, to provide additional security for your retreat. The only other significant limitation in your situation is owning less than two acres. Perhaps you could buy or lease some adjoining land. Good luck with your upcoming move! « Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Deep Family Roots Versus "Ideal Location" When Considering Relocation » Two Letters Re: Some Offshore Retreat Considerations, by P. Traveler
James, I see a lot of letters concerning 're-locating' out of the U.S. What are these people thinking? If there is one country that still has a modicum of privacy, freedom, and the ability to 'disappear' into the wilderness, then it is here in the U.S. Where in the world can you own the variety and quantity of firearms than here? [Where else can you] stockpile food, go off the grid et cetera? The legal system is still intact here as well, so you can win in court under most circumstances. I just cant figure Americans willing to give up this uniquely free country for some Third World gamble in some distant land completely removed from family, friends, heritage and culture. It boggles the mind. - Jason in N. Idaho
Jim, I read with interest the article "Some Offshore Retreat Considerations", by
P. Traveler. There was much of value in the article. I hope I can add some
information for your readers. My circumstances are that I work and live in
a South East
Asian
country for an International NGO.
My background is prior military (paratrooper), Police and Prison service, followed
by working as an NGO security officer in
Bosnia and Sudan before taking my current post. I have a degree in Risk, Crisis
and Disaster Management. « Letter Re: Advice on Gold and Silver Coins as a US Dollar Inflation Hedge |Main| Note from JWR: » Monday March 24 2008Two Letters Re: Using Natural Caves on Private Property
Greetings Jim, Memsahib, and Readers, To safely utilize a cave you have to have a very good knowledge
of yearly rainfall patterns, and it is best to have a compilation of several
years to give you a baseline of rainfall, and have a good knowledge of the
variations of the water table in the area. Using a cave for shelter or storage
in its natural state is one way to utilize a cave. However if the size of
the chamber is large enough you may want to expend a bit more energy and
expense if you intend to pass on the property to family later on. The perfect
example of the best utilization of a cave for long term shelter and or storage
is the old NORAD Cheyenne
Mountain [Command and Control] Complex. Within the natural cavern is built
a shelter system with all the comforts of home, and a few I wish
I had. Of course our tax dollars built it and to go to those lengths would
be problematic at best. But the basic concept of a shelter within a cave
is not a far stretch and would provide a lot of comfort and protection for
the occupants provided the cave is deemed habitable for the long term after
compiling the climatic data. You would have to weigh such construction against
not only costs but also to factors such as:
Hi Jim, I still think the best book on the subject is the US Army "Camouflage" field manual (FM 5-20) from 1969: Regards, - Jerry E. « Four Letters Re: Use of Force in Retreat Security--Planning for Rules of Engagement |Main| Notes from JWR: » Sunday March 23 2008Some Offshore Retreat Considerations, by P. TravelerMoving to a new area is a challenge, as any city-bred person from the US East
Coast could tell you after his first winter in Wyoming. And the job market
is not exactly as promising, either, at least for office workers. Yet, many
make the move, and come to regret having waited so long before having done
so. An even more difficult move is to go from the country of your birth and
to explore a new life somewhere else. Many of our ancestors did this, however,
and under far more difficult circumstances than you would face today. Just
think of the “coffin ships” that the Irish came to North America
on. | |