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Friday May 2 2008

Letter Re: Indian Tribal Reservation Boundaries as an Issue in Choosing Retreat Locales

Dear Jim:
In one of the latest posts you mentioned Idaho County, Idaho in regards to population density. What are your thoughts about buying on [Indian Tribal] reservation land? This applying in generally to any reservations, but also in particular to those in Idaho. I know folks in the area and they do not speak favorably [of buying land inside of reservation boundaries] as the Native Americans are free to cross their land, hunt on it, etc where the people who own the land cannot do anything about it.
Thanks a lot, Mike D.


JWR Replies: I describe Idaho retreat locales as well as tribal reservation boundary lines (and related issues, such as hunting, fishing, casinos, and the additional law enforcement jurisdictional layer) in detail, in my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation."

Also, take a look at this SurvivalBlog post that I made in June of 2006.

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Wednesday April 30 2008

Letter Re: Retreat Locales in the Eastern United States

Mr. Rawles:

I see that [in your Recommended Retreat Areas page] you only list information for retreat selection in 19 western states. Do you not think other states are worthy of retreat locations?

We live on 300 acres in southwestern Missouri (Polks County). Not totally ideal I am sure, but it is home, children and grandchildren are here and more over we feel placed here by our Lord over 35 years ago.

I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts pro/con on the state of Missouri so that we might be better prepared. -- Paulette

JWR Replies: I consider Missouri marginal as a retreat locale, primarily because of it population density. The state of Missouri is on the safer (lower population density) side of the Mississippi River but it is still far from ideal, since the state is bisected by the Missouri River and the dramatic drop in US population density is west of the Missouri. (As I will discuss later in this reply.)

My choice of reviewing retreat locales in just 19 western states has been discussed a few times before in SurvivalBlog, but for the benefit of the many newcomers, I will reiterate:

After much consideration, all of the eastern states were intentionally excluded for my recommendations because they are all either downwind of nuclear targets and/or are in areas with excessive population density. This wasn't just the result of subjective bias. I try to use the dispassionate mindset of an actuarial accountant.

Take a look at The Lights of the U.S. photo maps. These montages of satellite photos make it clear that most of America's population is east of the Missouri River and is highly urbanized.The population density of the U.S. is dramatically lower in the west. In troubled times fewer people means fewer problems. In the event of a social upheaval, being west of the Missouri River will mean a statistically much lower chance of coming face to face with lawless rioters or looters When The Schumer Hits The Fan (WTSHTF).

The other startling thing you will notice when looking at the Lights photo montage is that even in the western states, Americans live in a highly urbanized society. Roughly 90% of the population is crammed into 5% of the land area, mostly within 50 miles of the coast. But there are large patches of the west where there are virtually no lights at all--particularly in the Great Basin region that extends from the back side of the Sierra Nevada mountains to Utah and Eastern Oregon. The average population density in this region is less than two people per square mile.

As an example of the low population density in the west, I often like to cite Idaho County, Idaho: This one county measures 8,485 square miles--bigger than Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. But it has a population of just 15,400. And of those residents, roughly 3,300 people live in Grangeville, the county seat. Who lives in the rest of the County? Nary a soul. There are far more deer and elk than there are people. The population density of the county is 1.8 people per square mile. The county has more than three million acres of U.S. Forest Service land, BLM land, and designated Federal wilderness areas. Now that is elbow room!

The northeastern states depend on nuclear power plants for 47% of their electricity. South Carolina is similarly dependent. This is an unacceptable level of high technology systems dependence, particularly in light of the emerging terrorist threat. You must also consider that virtually all of the eastern states are downwind of major nuclear targets. In a full scale exchange, the eastern US would be a bad place to be. See the target lists, fallout projections, and other data at Richard Fleetwood's excellent SurvivalRing web site. Not only are there lots of nuclear targets in the east, but easterners will also get considerable additional fallout carried on the winds from strikes farther west--including SAC bomber bases, the strategic missile fields (in Montana, the Dakotas, and northern Colorado), Cheyenne Mountain (Colorado), Offutt AFB (Nebraska), and others. The majority of the military targets are expected to be hit with ground bursts, which are the type that produce fallout. Because of the Coriolis Effect, the prevailing winds in most of the United States are from west to east, so the farther east you live, the greater the accumulated fallout that you are likely to receive. Sorry!

My general advice for easterners: If for one reason or another you are stuck in the northeast, then consider New Hampshire or Vermont. They are both gun friendly and have more self-sufficient lifestyle. But unless you have some compelling reason to stay in the East, I most strongly encourage you to Go West!

With all that said, there are some areas in the eastern US that will be safer than others (like parts of Tennessee and Maine), and there are ways to mitigate the risks that I mentioned.:

Risk Mitigation

The risk posed by the higher population density of the eastern states can be mitigated by both carefully choosing your retreat property (look for bypassed areas that are far from "channelized areas" and lines of drift") and by having heavily-manned 24/7/360 armed and vigilant security at your retreat. (See my novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse" for a detailed description of what might be needed to mount such a guard.) This will of course mean extra mouths to feed--which in turn dictates the expense of extra storage food, extra gardening space, extra housing, and extra stored fuel. But this could be viable, especially if you are wealthy.

The other obvious risk mitigation is to construct a blast/fallout shelter with a forced-air HEPA filter. If your house already has a basement, and you are willing to do some of the work yourself, a retrofit can be done for under $5,000. Constructing a new, dedicated shelter can be a $15,000 to $70,000 proposition, depending how large and elaborate you want to make it. The folks at Safecastle have extensive experience in building such shelters, tailored for all budgets. They specialize in combination storm/nuke/gun vault shelters. I highly recommend them.

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Friday April 25 2008

Letter Re: Fuel Rationing as a Deciding Factor in Activating a Remote Retreat

Hi Jim,
Something that has come to mind as someone with a bug out location and bug out vehicle is that specter of fuel rationing. Now, my Bug Out Vehicle has a ~60 gallon diesel capacity which gives me approximately a 1,000 mile cruising capacity - depending on load. I keep my tanks full at all times and stabilized.

As someone with a remote "country home"--that requires fuel to get to--I'm very concerned about having enough fuel to make it to my location. Fuel rationing is a new "breakpoint" that I'm adding to my bug out SOPs, as a trigger point. Reason? Because once they start rationing fuels there may be no way to replace the fuel in the vehicles that would be required to get to my safe haven. Time to think about storing and stabilizing fuels, if you have a Bug Out Location. I'm contacting local suppliers about having a couple of 55 gallon drums of diesel dropped in my garage. These are scary times indeed. - Mr. Teo

JWR Replies: For ease of handling, I don't recommend storing anything larger than 20 gallon drums. Moving drums that are any larger requires special equipment and they are very difficult to quickly load in the back of pickup truck. (A 20 gallon drum is fairly easy for two men to handle, with the proper orchestration. ) The bulk of your diesel should be stored in an underground tank, preferably with its filler head and pump handle camouflaged.

The usual provisos: Consult your local fire code for storage limits and beware of fire safety when storing fuel cans or drums. Storing them in an attached garage is a bad idea.

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Survival Real Estate Market Update

Shopping for Retreat Property in Rural Western Maine - From Richard Frost in Maine

I'm a survivalist Realtor in Western Maine. I will work with buyers on the many retreat-type properties in the foothills of the northern Appalachians generally within 100 miles or so of the 100 year old agency I'm associated with.

However, there are many, many properties that I have access to which are further away from me - at least 3/4 of the state has retreat-type properties - so can travel further, or refer buyers to another broker. Maine is loaded with reasonably priced (and going lower !) large lots with, or without buildings. Lots of grown up old farmland from 5 - 500 acres - one remarkable 2 0,000 + acre parcel nearby that I'm very familiar with !! Only about 1.3 million folks in this whole isolated state, mostly large forested tracts owned by corporations far away, and we have an excellent long seacoast for trading when perhaps it will be an autonomous state. (or partnered w/free-state New Hampshire !?) Plenty of game from Moose & Deer to Turkeys, Waterfowl, Fish, and tasty Partridge. One hour from our office to the closest stop-light!

Maine has low property taxes for these types of places and relaxed gun laws, in fact it's a good place to buy guns without registration, as there's a statewide weekly publication where people sell things, including lots of guns, directly, not to mention livestock, feed, building supplies, etc., etc..

Zoning generally isn't a problem as far as efforts at farming go.
There are a few small cities - Portland is the largest with only about 100,000 people, so someone could possibly continue to work, and be 1 1/2 hrs. from their retreat, and there's not enough people to clog the roadways.

The area by our agency, [the vicinity of the town of] Rangeley, is a mountain and lake resort-type area, so properties are a bit higher, and if anyone were to look at our web site, I wouldn't want them to be turned away by prices. However, prices that seem high to me are considered cheap to people from other areas. Having said that, I would also say that the few large properties yet undeveloped nearby (say 40 acres for $175,000, or 23 acres for $150,000) are just gorgeous, and in a very beautiful area that will provide lots of fun recreational things to do while waiting to see what happens with the economy . There are plenty of affordable retreat properties in back of the more expensive coastal areas - you can choose to be closer to a little civilization, or to be at the end of a dirt road in an unorganized township, and the taxes on those can be really cheap, like $130 per year for 150 acres! Wooded lots a little further out (that may have some fields remaining) in what were farming areas can be had for as little as well under $100,000 for 100 acres, and plenty of 5 to 40 acre parcels for $12,000-to-$39,000. Generally water is easily accessible in the state, and dug wells are still very common. If you look at a map of Maine, you'll see that it's absolutely covered with ponds, lakes, rivers and streams. It is very possible to harvest ice [from ponds] for refrigeration. I've done it myself more than once, it works well, and isn't too hard to do.

Homes sell for a good bit below the national average statewide, but in the outlying areas they are much cheaper.
As a native, it's been my experience that locals will be very friendly if you are outgoing with them, or if you like, they will leave you alone. Generally speaking, Mainers are self-sufficient, helpful, fairly educated, and all in all, good folks.

We are quite far from any possible [military or terrorist] targets. New York City is about nine hours [drive] away. Where I live is 185 miles from Quebec City, 215 mi. from Montreal, 230 miles from Boston, and 120 miles from Portland [Maine], while being very close to New Hampshire and Canada if someone wanted to skip over the border for whatever reason. New Hampshire, for instance, doesn't have an income tax, but they hit you hard on real estate tax .

I am happy to chat, or e-mail with any curious or interested preparedness folks. Every cent I make goes into my own preparations and I'm very interested in meeting like-minded people to possibly with whom to partner-up. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst – I feel there's no better example of "erring on the side of excess" !
Richard Frost, Realtor. E-mail: richard@morton-furbish.com. Cellular phone: 207-491-8970 or, ask for me at Morton & Furbish Agency Phone: 207-864-5777

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Wednesday April 16 2008

The Precepts of My Survivalist Philosophy

In the past week I've had three newcomers to SurvivalBlog.com write and ask me to summarize my world view. One of them asked: "I could spend days looking through [the] archives of your [many months of] blog posts. But there are hundreds of them. Can you tell me where you stand, in just a page? What distinguishes the "Rawlesian" philosophy from other [schools of] survivalist thought?"

I'll likely add a few items to this list as time goes on, but here is a general summary of my precepts:

Modern Society is Increasingly Complex, Interdependent, and Fragile. With each passing year, technology progresses and chains of interdependency lengthen. In the past 30 years, chains of retail supply have grown longer and longer. The food on your supermarket shelf does not come from local farmers. It often comes from hundreds or even thousands of miles away. This has created an alarming vulnerability to disruption. Simultaneously, global population is still increasing in a near geometrical progression. At some point that must end, most likely with a sudden and sharp drop in population. The lynchpin is the grid. Without functioning power grids, modern industrial societies will collapse within weeks.

Civilization is Just a Thin Veneer. In the absence of law an order, men quickly revert to savagery. As was illustrated by the rioting and looting that accompanied disasters in the past three decades, the transition from tranquility to absolute barbarism can occur overnight. People expect tomorrow to be just like today, and they act accordingly. But then comes a unpredictable disaster that catches the vast majority unprepared. The average American family has four days worth of food on hand. When that food is gone, we'll soon see the thin veneer stripped away.

People Run in Herds and Packs, but Both Follow Natural Lines of Drift. Most people are sheep ("sheeple"). A few are wolves that prey on others. But just a few of us are more like sheepdogs--we think independently, and instead of predation, we are geared toward protecting and helping others. People naturally follow natural lines of drift--the path of least resistance. When the Schumer hits the fan, 99% of urbanites will try to leave the cities on freeways. The highways and freeways will soon resemble parking lots. This means that you need to be prepared to both get out of town ahead of the rush and to use lightly-traveled back roads. Plan, study and practice.

Lightly Populated Areas are Safer than High Density Areas. With a few exceptions, less population means fewer problems. WTSHTF, there will be a mass exodus from the cities. Think of it as an army that is spreading out across a battlefield: The wider that they are spread, the less effective that they are. The inverse square law hasn't been repealed.

Show Restraint, But Always Have Recourse to Lethal Force. My father often told me, "It is better to have a gun and not need it, than need a gun, and not have it." I urge readers to use less than lethal means when safe and practicable, but at times there is not a satisfactory substitute for well-aimed lead going down range at high velocity.

There is Strength in Numbers. Rugged individualism is all well and good, but it takes ore than one man to defend a retreat. Effective retreat defense necessitates having at least two families to provide 24/7 perimeter security. But of course every individual added means having another mouth to feed. Absent having an unlimited budget and an infinite larder, this necessitates striking a balance when deciding the size of a retreat group.

There are Moral Absolutes. The foundational morality of the civilized world is best summarized in the Ten Commandments. Moral relativism and secular humanism are slippery slopes. The terminal moraine at the base of these slopes is a rubble pile consisting of either despotism and pillage, or anarchy and the depths of depravity. I believe that it takes both faith and friends to survive perilous times. For more background on that, see my Prayer page.

Racism Ignores Reason. People should be judged as individuals. Anyone that make blanket statements about other races is ignorant that there are both good and bad individuals in all groups. I have accepted The Great Commission with sincerity."Go forth into all nations" means exactly that: all nations. OBTW, I feel grateful that SurvivalBlog is now read in more than 100 countries. I have been given a bully pulpit, and I intend to use it for good and edifying purposes.

Skills Beat Gadgets and Practicality Beats Style. The modern world is full of pundits, poseurs, and Mall Ninjas. Preparedness is not just about accumulating a pile of stuff. You need practical skills, and those only come with study, training, and practice. Any armchair survivalist can buy a set of stylish camouflage fatigues and an M4gery Carbine encrusted with umpteen accessories. Style points should not be mistaken for genuine skills and practicality.

Plentiful Water and Good Soil are Crucial. Modern mechanized farming, electrically pumped irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides can make deserts bloom. But when the grid goes down, deserts and marginal farmland will revert to their natural states. In my estimation, the most viable places to survive in the midst of a long term societal collapse will be those with reliable summer rains and rich topsoil.

Tangibles Trump Conceptuals. Modern fiat currencies are generally accepted, but have essentially no backing. Because they are largely a byproduct of interest bearing debt, modern currencies are destined to inflation. In the long run, inflation dooms fiat currencies to collapse. The majority of your assets should be invested in productive farm land and other tangibles such as useful hand tools. Only after you have your key logistics squared away, anything extra should be invested in silver and gold.

Governments Tend to Expand their Power to the Point that They Do Harm. In SurvivalBlog, I often warn of the insidious tyranny of the Nanny State. If the state where you live becomes oppressive, then don't hesitate to relocate. Vote with your feet!

There is Value in Redundancy. A common saying of my readers is: "Two is one, and one is none." You must be prepared to provide for your family in a protracted period of societal disruption. That means storing up all of the essential "beans, bullets, and Band-Aids" in quantity. If commerce is disrupted by a disaster, at least in the short term you will only have your own logistics to fall back on. The more that you have stored, the more that you will have available for barter and charity.

A Deep Larder is Essential. Food storage is one of the key preparations that I recommend. Even if you have a fantastic self-sufficient garden and pasture ground, you must always have food storage that you can fall back on in the event that your crops fail due to drought, disease, or infestation.

Tools Without Training Are Almost Useless. Owning a gun doesn't make someone a "shooter" any more than owning a surfboard makes someone a surfer. With proper training and practice, you will be miles ahead of the average citizen. Get advanced medical training. Get the best firearms training that you can afford. Learn about amateur radio from your local affiliated ARRL club. Practice raising a vegetable garden each summer. Some skills are only perfected over a period of years.

Old Technologies are Appropriate Technologies. In the event of a societal collapse, 19th Century (or earlier) technologies such as a the blacksmith's forge, the treadle sewing machine, and the horse-drawn plow will be far easier to re-construct than modern technologies.

Charity is a Moral Imperative. As a Christian, I feel morally obligated to assist others that are less fortunate. Following the Old Testament laws of Tzedakah (charity and tithing), I believe that my responsibility begins with my immediate family and expands in successive rings to supporting my immediate neighborhood and church, to my community, and beyond, as resources allow. In short, my philosophy is to "give until it hurts" in times of disaster.

Buy Life Assurance, not Life Insurance. Self-sufficiency and self-reliance are many-faceted. You need to systematically provide for Water, Food, Shelter, Fuel, First Aid, Commo, and, if need be, the tools to enforce Rule 308.

Live at Your Retreat Year-Round. If your financial and family circumstances allow it, I strongly recommend that you relocate to a safe area and live there year-round. This has several advantages, most notably that will prevent burglary of your retreat logistics and allow you to regularly tend to gardens, orchards, and livestock. It will also remove the stress of timing a "Get Out of Dodge" trip at the11th hour. If circumstances dictate that you can't live at your retreat year round, then at least have a caretaker and stock the vast majority of your logistics in advance, since you may only have one trip there before roads are impassable.

Exploit Force Multipliers. Night vision gear, intrusion detection sensors, and radio communications equipment are key force multipliers. Because these use high technology they cannot be depended upon in a long term collapse, but in the short term, they can provide a big advantage. Some low technologies like barbed wire and defensive road cables also provide advantages and can last for several decades.

Invest Your Sweat Equity. Even if some of you have a millionaire's budget, you need to learn how to do things for yourself, and be willing to get your hands dirty. In a societal collapse, the division of labor will be reduced tremendously. Odds are that the only "skilled craftsmen" available to build a shed, mend a fence, shuck corn, repair an engine, or pitch manure will be you.and your family. A byproduct of sweat equity is muscle tone and proper body weight. Hiring someone to deliver three cords of firewood is a far cry from felling, cutting, hauling, splitting, and stacking it yourself.

Choose Your Friends Wisely. Associate yourself with skilled doers, not "talkers." Seek out people that share your outlook and morality. Living in close confines with other families is sure to cause friction but that will be minimized if you share a common religion and norms of behavior.You can't learn every skill yourself. Assemble a team that includes members with medical knowledge, tactical skills, electronics experience, and traditional practical skills.

There is No Substitute for Mass. Mass stops bullets. Mass stops gamma radiation. Mass stops (or at least slows down ) bad guys from entering a home and depriving its residents of life and property. Sandbags are cheap, so buy plenty of them. When planning your retreat house, think: medieval castle. (See the SurvivalBlog Archives for the many articles and letters on Retreat Architecture.)

Always Have a Plan B and a Plan C. Regardless of your pet scenario and your personal grand plan of survival, you need to be flexible and adaptable. Situations and circumstances change. Always keep a G.O.O.D. kit handy, even if you are fortunate enough to live at your retreat year-round.

Be Frugal. I grew up in a family that still remembered both our pioneer history and the more recent lessons of the Great Depression. One of our family mottos is: "Use it up, wear it out, make do, or do without."

Some Things are Worth Fighting For. I encourage my readers to avoid trouble, most importantly via relocation to safe areas where trouble is unlikely to come to visit. But there may come an unavoidable day that you have to make a stand to defend your own family or your neighbors. Further, if you value your liberty, then be prepared to fight for it, both for yourself and for the sake of your progeny.

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Letter Re: The Survivor Mindset

Dear Mr. Rawles;
I love the SurvivalBlog. It is fun and interesting, yet it is even more, it is educational! I believe that a lot of people are over looking the biggest part of the equation when it comes to survival. It is mindset. When going thru [US Army] Ranger school I knew from the start there was no way I was going to quit. I had the mindset they could “DQ” [(disqualify)] me and send me packing but I was not quitting. In a true survival setting one has to know in his heart and mind he is going try to make it at all cost.

I am a Christian, a true believer of God’s saving grace, yet when the Schumer hits the fan I am going to survive or die trying. I think a lot of people need to re-evaluate their thinking about a time of total collapse. At that point, you will have to become good spirited yet know and believe that you will do what it takes to survive. There are going to be cold nights, days of being in the rain watching your home, and sweating because there is no air conditioning. You can provide charity and help to people you truly trust. I know that sounds selfish but it isn’t. If you start to give food and other goods away [to strangers] you become a target and the thieves will come! If you decide to take them to a church then someone at that church is going to know you had it and again you will become a target. When people become desperate they will do anything. I hope folks realize that when these times come, a trip to town will be a heart attack event, because driving or walking down a road and not having proper recon is a nightmare waiting to happen.

Another issue I would like to make is bugging out. If you think you are going to bug out after the Schumer hits the fan, then you are full of Schumer! When it hits, there is going to be widespread panic and martial law will follow. Therefore moving is going to be a major problem. I think if you are concerned enough now to have a retreat, then move to it now. I live in semi-rural North Carolina and I would love to be in Montana but it ain’t happening! Therefore my family has decided to square ourselves away and hunker down in place. People need to realize that they don’t want to be a refugee! That can not be stated loud and hard enough. Most people would take two or three days to really be ready to leave home, if they could do it that quickly. In two or three days a lot can happen! The roads would be clogged, fuel inventories depleted, grocery stores barren, and then the nightmare of trying to avoid the military and police enforcing the martial law rules. You would be either stuck at home or out in the open with no where to go. I am totally serious, either go now or prepare to stay in place.

Be physically and mentally tough. The hard times will be like nothing you can imagine unless you have been to a warring third world country. In those times everything will matter, you will see the strong survive and the rest dwindle away. With My Best Regards, - A.F. in North Carolina

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Friday April 11 2008

The ABCs of WTSHTF, by Mark B.

The ABCs of When the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF.) aren’t what you have prepared, acquired or stowed but even more basic in the preparation processes that we sometimes take for granted.
The A is the ability to learn, to adapt and to try. No matter how many classes we take or how much we have stored away there is the potential that we might have missed something or prepared for one scenario and ended up with another. We may be in the middle of TEOTWAWKI and not be fully ready but guess what, we aren’t scheduling it. Ability is not only applying something that we’ve learned but troubleshooting or working through something that we don’t have a clue about. We may not get it right the first time that we try something new but we have the ability to learn from our mistakes and go back to try again. We have the ability to learn from others mistakes and we have the ability to make changes or corrections that work for our scenario.

The B is the brains that we have to reason with to store our morals our life lessons and the memories that make us who we are. The best tool that we have at our disposal is our brain. So many people in day to day life just go on auto pilot and don’t think about what they can do to improve how they do something. In my line of work I hear that “I’ve done it that way for 20 years”. My response is that you’ve been doing it wrong for 20 years. We just get in the habit of doing things a certain way. We eat our meals at the same time even if we aren’t hungry just because it is the time we are conditioned to eat. We go to bed at a certain time and we get up at a certain time. As a culture we have stopped utilizing what we were born with. In my opinion that is a large part of why we are where we are today. The sheep just keep waiting for someone to lead them or fall prey to the ones that use their brains without the use of morals. If we just think about what we are about to do instead of just doing it we can prevent personal injury or emotional pain. A simple example would be when a loved one has done something that upset you and you just respond without thinking of how it would affect them or why they did it the way they did. The words are already spoken; you can’t take them back, or you’re cutting something with a knife and slice your finger or hand because you didn’t think about what you were doing. We should try to learn and practice as much as possible so it will at least be familiar if not second nature but if we haven’t seen or done it before it is still doable because we can reason and solve problems. The human race has faced challenges for thousands of years and we have always improved because we have the ability to think.

The C stands for two things, first is choice. Most of the dialog that I’ve seen on SurvivalBlog shows that we have made a choice to not be led into a place where we no longer have a choice. We all are at different stages in the process but our choice is to survive whatever we are dealt. The choice is yours for all situations, you may not be able to control the overall aspect but you make the choice of how you let it affect you. Have you ever been driving and had someone cut you off? You don’t have control over the other driver but you do have the ability to make the choice of letting the incident infuriate you or brushing the whole situation off. We all make choices of whom if anyone will be invited into our confidence or where our retreat will be. We make the choice of what type of armament we will utilize or the type of food we will store or grow. Some things are dependent on location or availability but it is still a choice. Our choices are a large part of what makes us who we are. The choice to have faith, the choice to be ready, and the choice to have morals are some choices that most of us here have made. Remember that no matter what the influences are the final choice is the one that you make. Right, wrong or indifferent it’s the choice that you will have to live with.

The second C is composure, always maintain your composure. If you keep your wits about you then you stand a better chance of surviving the situation. When you lose your composure you lose your ability to reason and react rationally. In an emergency situation time is critical and if you remain calm you will have a higher probability of doing it right the first time. In an emergency situation maintaining your composure could mean the difference between life and death. I don’t mean you have to become cold or callous but you can deal with your emotions after the situation subsides. If you don’t maintain your composure you might not get that chance.
I would like to thank my brothers in arms from all the services; they have helped me learn these lessons and have given me the opportunity to use what I was born with and strived to refine it and help it grow.

Remember that we started out without clothes and shelter. We started out without the ability to communicate over great distances without traveling them. We can now travel and communicate in space or around the planet all because we use our ability, our brains and by the choices that we make.

In my opinion we should absolutely continue to learn, store and prepare. We should choose who we will coexist with before, during and after the coming collapse, we should do that even if the collapse doesn’t come during our lifetime. We should continue to grow as an individual and as a group. We should not over analyze the solution to whatever problem we face. We should not assume failure if we missed something or we didn’t get the opportunity to get everything that we wanted. We should be thankful for what we have. We should remember how far we have come. We should use our brain to think the solution through. We should use our ability to reason and we should stay calm to prevail.
I have learned a great deal since I started reading SurvivalBlog and utilizing the links and resources available here. It has provoked the thought process of things that I hadn’t thought of or had a different approach about something.

There are many things that the survivalist practices that have become a lost art so to speak such as canning and the ability to survive without modern conveniences. We are in a society that does not know how to function without cell phones and computers but I can remember when we didn’t have them. We communicated either by land line telephone or my goodness how archaic, snail mail. Farther back in our history there was the Pony Express and even couriers.

[The author of the] Heartbreak Ridge [screenplay (James Carabatsos)] stated it best:" Improvise, adapt and overcome."

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Friday April 4 2008

Economic Climate Change: The Long Winter May Begin This Summer

I've had several consulting clients contact me in recent weeks, all with notes of fear in their voices. They realize that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they cannot properly isolate and articulate the problem. I haven't been able to calm them, however, because to an extent I share their anxiety. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that we sense is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate.

America is clearly headed for a recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But this nascent recession in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone.

Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures.

Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. (They can't do that any more than I could predict the bends in the road ahead by keeping a chart of the preceding left and right turns of my car's steering wheel. My apologies for any offense to my friend The Chartist Gnome, but you are fooling yourself.) Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.)

The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse. I think that veteran market analyst Jim Rogers had it right, in a recent interview. Take a few minutes to watch that video. Jim Rogers sees the big picture. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that he has gone off somewhere to hunker in a bunker.

"Big Picture" Implications

As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend lon, effectively use debt compounded upon debt. Many, many hedge funds will be bankrupted before the end of 2008.

Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDS). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so derivatives contract holders have not yet experienced a major recession or a depression. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not ever experienced a derivatives full scale "blow up", but I predict that when it happens, it will be spectacular.

The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on he street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse last summer, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama.

The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even whole governments will go under as this tumult plays out. The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.)

Risk Mitigation

Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.)

Since large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business.

In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life.

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Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

We are presently heading into the spring selling market that should yield some of the best prices seen in years in rural America, especially in the Pacific Northwest region, in particular. At this point, especially in small towns in the region most folks have realized that their golden egg is about to hatch a goose and that they should have sold their property two years ago while there was still a chance to sell at reasonable prices. A lot of folks waited and kept their property prices too high and listened to others who spoke of the market "coming back soon" and "don't worry." Well, now they are scared. I moonlight as a gunsmith at a local gun shop and during the two weeks preceding Christmas last year we sold absolutely no firearms at all. What we did do and continue to do each week is pawn and redeem items for folks just to make it to their next paycheck.

Heading into the spring time here the tide has turned from pawns to folks selling what they can to buy battle rifles, a heavy weight of reality is starting to hang in the air in rural America, even people that are not true preppers like you and I just know something isn't right. Recently, locals that would have never thought about owning battle rifles have been trading in their deer rifles for black rifles. We cannot keep .308 caliber semi-autos on the shelf, period. We have tons of AR-15's but if an HK or FAL shows up it goes within a day or so. Farmers might be slow movers but they're not dumb, they see what's coming. All the .308 and related components are going as well. We went to order a few of Rock River Arms new LARs in .308 (the same as the Bushmaster BAR-10, they bought the rights from them last year), a great big brother of the AR-15 chambered in .308 and they said they had a two year backorder list! The point of my sidetrack here is that small towns are already getting hit hard economically just by what has happened in the past five months or so. They realize that they had better sell what they're going to sell or they'll need to wait along time to get a better price, if ever. This applies directly to real estate as well. Bargains abound, especially parcels that were split up over the last year or so that have not sold, like one I have reviewed and JWR has approved on SurvivalRealty.com, called the Ridgetop Retreat. It is part of a larger 104-acre parcel that as far as I know no parcels have sold so someone could buy the entire 104 acres in the range of $570,000 and then sell the divided parcels to fellow like minded individuals.

Now is the time to swoop in and for someone that can pay cash or make easy financing terms, the real estate inventory is huge, and there are now some real bargains. There are many sellers that are on the brink of foreclosure and just want to get out with a few bucks and deals can be had. High end builders are sitting on finished product and have to refinance the homes out of the construction loans with cash out just to make the payments, and the banks are dong it, knowing that they are simply loaning them the money to do so, but what choice do they have? The high priced homes and land are simply overvalued and sinking everyday. Several parcels on SurvivalRealty.com have been dropped several hundred thousand dollars from last years listing prices with some more room to maneuver.

I'm working on several plans for groups in survival real estate. My preliminary thoughts are that it would require folks who have been humbled enough to be thankful just to have 'something' to go to in a time of peril and folks that have a sum of cash they need or want to invest in such a venture, but not enough to buy or build their retreat. I'm looking for ten investors that can put in $100,000 to $150,000 each to pool together $1 million to $1.5 million USD. This would be enough to purchase an amount of acreage and build one large building with ten separate living quarters with a large common area(s), something like a survival condo(s) complex, but complete with a communal basement bio-bunker, food storage, indoor range, indoor greenhouse, individual walk in safes in each unit and many other features. I have preliminary plans of the complex and should this move farther forward such plans will be available to those interested parties after consultation.

During good times the condo units could be used whenever the separate deeded owners wanted for vacations, family outings and holidays, et cetera. During times of peril the owners simply show up and start living, cooperating on security and other daily activities. To some this may seem absurd, but if this peaks your interest please contact me and we can discuss further. The location of such a property would in all likelihood be in the Palouse hills region of north central Idaho, due to the price per acre of land and more favorable weather and growing seasons. Remember, time is short and the buying power of your USD is falling. Every day you delay doing something towards getting to your retreat!

For further information, see my private Idaho pages on SurvivalRealty.com or contact me directly via e-mail. Remember, Idaho is what America was…Free!

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Wednesday April 2 2008

Letter Re: Some Offshore Retreat Considerations

Mr. Rawles,

A good set of links on finding a homestead that may be useful to your readers can be found at The Mother Earth News web site.

I also agree with Jason in North Idaho's comments. Relocating to the developing world for the purpose of long term survival is not something I would recommend. I am presently living in the developing world because I work here--at least for the time being. I probably have this in common with many of your readers who work as security contractors. My long term goal is to return to return to my home country and relocate to a small town.

Don't relocate to run away. Relocate to achieve a goal. Think about the kind of lifestyle you want to live, and work towards that.

I am willing to accept more risk than most people. I also was trained by the military to function in unstable environments and consequently I get paid a lot more to do the same job because of that. But this is a short term temporary strategy to enable me to get some cash to buy some land. Everyone must make their own risk assessments and plan accordingly.

In the meantime my focus is planning for and taking precautions against political instability, crime and pandemic flu. Long term I am very concerned about Peak Oil. The developing world will stop developing when foreign aid is cut off and that there will be a serious population crash in an energy descent scenario. Regards, - Felix D.

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Tuesday April 1 2008

Letter Re: Sword Ban Begins on April 6th in the United Kingdom

James:
In the past you have recommended that SurvivalBlog readers in the UK to get a samurai sword. Well, they are banning them now.


As of the 6th April 2008 it will become illegal to manufacture, import or sell (but not own) all swords with a curved, single edged blade over 50 cm in the U.K.

Although they can still supply such weapons for "permitted activities". These activities include; Historical re-enactments and Sporting Activities.

The legislation does not mention samurai swords. It only mentions single-edged curved swords with a blade length of 50cm or over. As per the document, it appears that all swords with those characteristics will be banned. Including Chinese Dao, American & European Sabres, Filipino Swords etc.

They have not had a vote with the members of parliament on this. They are just banning them [by decree].

If you want one before that, I would say the best makers seem to be Cold Steel (but they cost a lot more and I don't think you will find one in time), or Hanwai / Paul Chan. (For he latter, contact the UK dealer--you may be just in time.) It looks like I got my samurai [sword] just in time.

You can always get a non-curved blade like a Shinodi (Ninja sword), a broad sword or a Side sword (I want the Hanwei one) these last two are also double-edge. Cold Steel makes a [straight] double-edge samurai sword so that for now will be okay for now but I bet soon they will ban anything double-edge or with a blade over 50cm. - Simon in England

JWR Replies: The UK government is clearly doing its best to put its citizenry at the mercy of criminals. Soon enough, your ever-tightening Country Code will have your self defense options reduced to just butter knives, ASBOs, cricket bats, and harsh language. It is now abundantly clear that violent crime is already at unacceptable levels in urban areas of the UK. In the event of an economic collapse, things could resemble the recently-released Doomsday movie. Under those circumstances the majority will fall prey to a minority that is younger, stronger, and uninhibited by moral compunctions.

I must reassert that it is clearly time to take the gap. The US and New Zealand still have immigration programs that are advantageous. Get out of England soon, while these programs are still available.

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Monday March 31 2008

News from Wall Street and Capitol Hill--The Mother Of All Bailouts Begins to Grow

Last week, the mainstream media described the latest expansion of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), but they politely refrained from calling this what it is: socialism, plain and simple. The grand plan, as it stands now, is to bail out not just consumer banks, but also investment banks, with taxpayer dollars. They are effectively making our life savings and our future earnings surety for a bunch of idiotic contrapreneurs' loans on everything from flat top duplexes to McMansions. These were houses that the contrapreneurs bought, that they could never really afford unless the market continued to rise at an artificial rate. They bought these houses with the intention of "flipping" them, but then the market topped out, and the "easy money" party ended.

At least those hated fascist dictators like Mussolini had the common sense to nationalize viable, productive companies. But now Ben Bernanke is busy nationalizing a slew of corporations with negative net worth. This is absolute lunacy!

Here are four examples of the mainstream's view:

From The Washington Post: Fed Leaders Ponder an Expanded Mission.

From The New York Times: Treasury Dept. Seeks New U.S. Power to Keep Markets Stable

From Reuters: Treasury regulatory overhaul plan "timely": Fed

And finally (with an ever-so-slightly more conservative view), this from Fox News: Bush Administration Proposes Sweeping Overhaul of Financial Regulation.

All of these calls for regulation, new government agencies, and greater scrutiny might outwardly sound well-reasoned, but they ignore some inescapable underlying problems: We have a fiat currency that is based on debt, we have a banking system with fictional fractional reserves, we have a derivatives market that is a $500 trillion casino, and we have a national treasury that is backed by wishful thinking--certainly not by anything tangible.

The other key point that seems to have escaped the mainstream media is that this new regulatory power is being handed to the Federal Reserve, which is a private banking cartel, not a government agency. They are no more "Federal" than the Federal Express parcel courier company. So this isn't just socialism. This is nothing short of corporate-controlled socialism--where a handful of banking corporations are given access to the Federal tax coffers to bail out other institutions and then, even further, they are given sweeping regulatory powers. This power grab is deemed "necessary" by circumstances that the Federal Reserve itself created! Somewhere, somehow, somebody stands to make a lot of money in this process. Cui bono? I'll wager that it won't be the American taxpayers that benefit. As economist Mish Shedlock observes, this is like putting the Fox in Charge of the Henhouse. Mish summed up the current mess succinctly: "The biggest, most reckless credit experiment in history has started to implode. It's far too late to stop a complete systemic collapse now. Granting new powers to the agency most responsible for the mess simply does not make any sense."

Secrecy is another concern. In a recent e-mail, SurvivalBlog reader KAF commented: "We should be greatly concerned about the fact that the Federal Reserve has provided public release anonymity to the institutions who are taking '30 day' never ending loans. We'll now never know if the institutions we deal with are truly solvent and credible, This new"confidentiality" allows the Fed. to manipulate reserves on a routine basis. We'll never know if this country's Federal Reserve is or is not heading for bankruptcy unless we use the tests of consumer spending and commodity pricing as indicators." She hit the nail on the head. At the same time that the press is howling for "greater transparency" in banking, and writing exposes of "predatory lending practices", the Powers That Be are drawing the veil of secrecy over lending institutions. They'd rather treat us like mushrooms--keeping us in the dark and feeding us barn waste--than risk a panic by letting the public know the real depth of the liquidity crisis and its collateral effects.

Instead of government platitudes, do you want some figures to chew on? Look at this Federal Reserve web page. The negative numbers at the bottom of the "Non-loaned Reserves" column speak volumes. Without the newly-created Federal Reserve "emergency lending mechanisms", many banks would be absolutely bankrupt. As you can see, the bankers are swimming in red ink. There is now a huge risk of bank runs, but this threat is being ignored by the mainstream media. Mark my words: There are bank runs coming.

The fact is that the global lending system is essentially broken. Artificially lowering interest rates won't fix it, when bankers are afraid to lend. As I've previously noted, the bankers are afraid to lend because so much re-packaging and reshuffling of debt has gone on in the past seven years that nobody knows who owes what to whom, and precisely what assets are underlying these exotic debt "packages." Meanwhile, the bankers have learned that the big insurance firms like Fitch, Moody's and S&P were in on the swindle. We now know that they colluded with their mortgage firm buddies to inflate assets and deflate risks in a masterpiece of legerdemain that would make Enron's accountants proud.

The bottom line is the the entire world economy is is in deep, deep trouble. Without financing, the Big Machine is grinding to a halt. The next few years will probably see the economy plunge into a deep recession, if not a full blown depression. The current headlines are just a foreshadowing of the real crisis to come. The MOAB will grow and grow, eventually bailing out far more than just banks. There will be brokerage houses, insurance firms, S&Ls, credit unions, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, and possibly even muni bonds and pension funds are all lined up, ready to reach into our wallets. Once the government starts down the slippery slope of bailout-socialism schemes, they will perforce spread to more and more institutions. And, as I've previously noted, the public coffers will be insufficient to cover the inestimable costs of the MOAB. So this mean that Uncle Sam will monetize the difference. They'll just create the needed "dollars" out of thin air. This will be outrageously inflationary, at all levels.

All of this is not going unnoticed by European and Asian bankers. They can see that the dollar is set for mass inflation, so they are dumping dollars as fast as they can. It is no wonder that the US Dollar Index has plummeted. When I last checked, it took $1.58 to buy one Euro! The foreign bankers aren't stupid. Upcoming auctions of US Treasury paper will languish with very few takers. I predict that in less than a year, the Treasury yields will have to be pumped up substantially to attract enough bidders to get the needed financing to cover the budget deficit. We could see double digit rates--a la the late 1970s--in the not too distant future.

All of these macro-level implications might seem fairly abstract, so let me put them in real world terms and take the risk of extrapolating on some trends that I've observed: There will be a recession, and it will be deep, and long-lasting. A recession will mean that there will be some big corporate layoffs. Be ready. There will be bank runs and banking "holidays". Be ready. There will be huge flows of "bailout" funds that will effectively nationalize many industries. Be ready. There will probably be a stock market collapse. Be ready. There will be a further collapse in residential real estate that will make the recent declines seem small, by comparison. Be ready. Credit delinquencies and foreclosures (on car loans, home loans, credit card bills, etc.) will dramatically increase. Be ready. There will be a collapse of the commercial real estate market. Be ready. Even though the credit available for IPOs and private mergers and acquisitions has dried up, there will be news of some large and seemingly inexplicable acquisitions in the near future, all sanctioned by and in some cases, underwritten by, and even funded by, the Federal government. Be ready. There will be shortages of key commodities including fuel and food. Be ready. Strapped for cash, America's highway, rail, water, sewer, telecommunications, and power infrastructures will degenerate. Be ready. There will be mass inflation of the US Dollar that will devalue any dollar denominated investments. Be ready.

And now, to further extrapolate, (with a lower level of confidence): All of the aforementioned economic dislocation and surging inflation might trigger mass protests, riots, looting, and arson in the cities. Be ready. There may then be massive out-migration from the cities. Be ready. Wars have been known to follow close on the heels of depressions and financial crises, so there may be a war, possibly big enough to require another draft. Be ready.

As I've written many times before, the real lynchpin to worry about is the power grid. If the grid goes down, then all bets are off. Be vigilant, be well-stocked with a deep larder, and be self-sufficient. Store extra for charity. If you can afford to, establish a survival retreat in a lightly-populated region, and if possible, live there year-round.

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Saturday March 29 2008

Letter Re: Advice on Purchasing Priorities For a Tight Budget

Mr. Rawles,
Hello again! Hope you and your family are doing well. I have had some questions on my mind lately, and was curious if you would mind helping me. (I know you must be tremendously busy with our "strong" economy!). My wife and I are both college students in Santa Cruz, California, and we have a very limited amount of storage space and limited income. Are there any tricks or pieces of advice you have for individuals like ourselves? I recently spent my tax refund on some firearms (which were from a federal firearms dealer :-[ ) and now I was curious about the next step. I contacted "Wiggy's" from your web site about some sleeping bags, but feel like a water filter would be a better investment at the moment. Thanks for your time!

OBTW, I feel like California is turning into a commune, I literally have less freedoms than I had recently thought. - V. from California

JWR Replies: Given the mild climate on the California coast, a water filter is much more important than cold weather gear for your next purchase. I recommend the American-made Aqua Rain brand. These are similar to the Big Berkey (imported from England), but they only cost half as much. (The US Dollar's recent slip versus the British Pound has sadly further widened this price gap.) Please compare prices with our advertisers such as Safecastle, JRH Enterprises, and Ready Made Resources, before buying elsewhere. Next, consider buying from our affiliate advertisers like Lehman's and Nitro-Pak. OBTW, if you contact any of our advertisers, then please mention where you saw their ad. Thanks!

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Friday March 28 2008

Post-Doomsday: Dress Incognito, Play Down Your Preps, by Ranger Man

Rawles, at SurvivalBlog, had a good post earlier this month that included reader-submitted comments on survival lessons from the homeless. Check the link to read the advice, which mostly contains thoughts on street survival as the homeless see it, how to score a free shower, etc. Let’s flip this line of thinking around and brainstorm on how staying dirty could be a SHTF survival technique.
If (when) the world is your enemy, deception is your ally. I think this is particularly pertinent to urban dwellers, but it could be valuable for everyone. WTSHTF - dress like a bum. Post-doomsday:

George: (whispering) - “Hey Bill, look over there.” (readies his rifle) “A bum, should we take him?”

Bill: (whispering back) - “Nah, look at him. Our clothes are in much better shape. He ain’t got nuthin’. Save the ammo.”

Remember in Parable of the Sower [by Octavia Butler] the doctor dude that dressed like a bum and wheeled around his cart that contained a big pile of cash and a full-auto? That dude knew what he was doing. Don’t make yourself a target. Make it so people want nothing to do with you. You can act deranged, appear diseased, wear dumpy clothes, rub yourself in dirt, etc.

Similarly, remember that television series from 1984 called “V”? The one where lizard-like aliens came to Earth pretending to be humans for the purpose of harvesting our bodies for food? There’s one scene in particular that I remember where one dude was smuggling some people in his truck. He comes upon a road block and quickly starts munching a raw onion. When roadblock dude starts questioning him, he is quickly taken aback by the onion breath. He moved the truck along quickly, never finding the people buried in the back.

Make yourself undesirable, and don’t show your preps off. The Golden Horde will want what you have. I know you’re all just itchin’ for s**t to hit the fan so you can look at everyone else scrambling for gear, food, and fuel and yell, “Ha! Told you so!” as you sit behind your dining room window fortified with sandbags, dressed in fatigues, and sipping a juice box, but resist the urge. Depending on the circumstances you may want to play down your preparations. When the entire town is starving you’ll want to look gaunt. I don’t care how much food is in your basement. When everyone is walking, don’t drive. I don’t care how much fuel is in your F-350.

You get the idea. Think outside the box, creativity is your greatest asset. - Ranger Man

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Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

We have some great news for you folks that have been wondering where all the approved retreats disappeared to, on the Idaho page of SurvivalRealty.com. (This is SurvivalBlog's sister site that JWR put together specifically to help SurvivalBlog readers to find their own survival retreats.) More than 15 Idaho listings have now been posted! You can view them here.

In order to comply with guidelines set forth by the Idaho Real Estate Commission, although the listings are available on any public MLS approved site, the subsequent retreat evaluations, analysis and photos are only allowed to be disseminated to actual customers and contractual clients of licensed real estate offices, upon request from those interested persons. In order to stay within those guidelines you'll be required to agree to the 'Terms of Use' in order to view any of the non-For Sale By Owner (FSBO) Idaho listings. The clickable agreement covers two important items. First, that a request is being submitted to the chosen real estate company to display approved survival retreats and their evaluations. Secondly, that it is understood that by agreeing to the service that no financial obligation is owed to the real estate company and that one may contact any licensed agent for further information about any property. This process is essentially the same as e-mailing an agent for information about property. However, this process will allow you to review approved retreat properties anonymously, without e-mailing a bunch of real estate agents, giving out your contact information and being subsequently bothered with e-mails about properties that do not meet your criteria.

One more important change is that the Tactical Analysis and other non-PC type information will not be posted, even though the information is on a private web page for customers and clients. Only the standard MLS page will be displayed. For that technical and other additional info you'll need to contact the Retreat Evaluator Todd Savage. This is done out of respect to the sellers, their agents, and brokers alike.

Moving on to northern Idaho, There is a beautiful 40 acre parcel on the North Bench just above Bonners Ferry, that is going to be coming up for sale or trade soon. It features about 20 acres of rolling timbered hills and draws, and about 20 acres which was at one time plowed and tilled by horses. There are multiple building sites, plentiful game, and majestic views of the Selkirk Mountain range. Sun exposure and the micro climate of the North Bench area lend the property to be turned into a small community based farm, bed and breakfast, or a combination of both! The seller wishes to be discreet about marketing so information will only be emailed out to pre-screened folks and will not be posted on SurvivalRealty.com, other than a brief mention here and there. The price has been set starting at $275,000. The seller is willing to trade for a retreat in Colorado as well. Please e-mail me if you wish to be included for further information on this incredible property.

Over the next week I will be posting many more approved retreats on the private 'customer only' pages on SurvivalRealty.com. Look for them when mentioned each day in SurvivalBlog's Odds 'n Sod's section! OBTW, prices are becoming more realistic with each passing day, and the market will be flooded with listings this spring with some incredible deals.

I plan to host several 'Approved Retreat' tours of the Palouse Hills, Boundary County, and northwestern Montana locales this spring and summer. Please e-mail me to be included as well for detailed information and dates. The tours will be limited to 20 reservations each, on a first-come, first-served basis. If you have always wanted to see the 'real deal' this would be the time!

Congratulations to "Mr. Echo" who recently closed on a spectacular off the grid retreat "somewhere in north central Idaho".

- Todd Savage Certified Retreat Evaluation Consultant - Realtor, Real Team Real Estate Center
Phone: (208) 946-1151
Idaho is, what America was...Free!

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Thursday March 27 2008

Letter Re: Choosing a State for Relocation

James,
To follow up on Mike Williamson's recent letter on choosing a state for relocation, the April 2008 issue of Outdoor Life magazine has a good article on the best 200 towns in the U.S. for hunters and fishermen. The towns were rated for:

Abundant Fishable Species
Abundant Huntable Species
Public Land Proximity (This may or may not be a good thing, IMHO.)
Trophy Potential
Gun Laws

From 1 to 10, the top 10 towns rated were:
Mountain Home, Arkansas
Lewsiton, Idaho
Sheridan, Wyoming
Cody, Wyoming
Pocatello, Idaho
Lewistown, Montana
Marquette, Michigan
Dillon, Montana
Page, Arizona
Bismark, North Dakota
They also list an additional 200 more towns. You may or may not agree with their ratings, but if an abundance of wild game and fish are important to you now, or during a SHTF event, this is a good list to hang on to.
Both Field and Stream, and Outdoor Life have upgraded their quality of late, and are well worth the subscription prices. Wait for the sales, you may get them for a dollar per issue. I am seeing more and more prep and survival articles in both magazines. Perhaps the editors actually "get it"? I can't say, but they're both worth a look. If you don't want to subscribe, check them out at your local library. Best Regards, - Florida Guy

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Wednesday March 26 2008

Letter Re: Choosing a State for Relocation

Dear Jim,
I found this article on the safest states to live in, based on major crime rates. Compare that to this article from "Parents" magazine, who['s author] seems to rate states by the number of socialist laws they have.

This is the [same] magazine whose solution to children fearing fire, after seeing the attacks of Sep 11 [2001], was "therapy." I used the expedient of starting a small brush pile out back, dousing it with an extinguisher, and leaving a new extinguisher in their room. $30 is a lot cheaper and less stigmatizing than "therapy," and had the practical benefit of teaching them how to control small fires.
Along the same lines, here's an article from England.

I was being partly facetious when I suggested in my novel "The Weapon" that fire extinguishers would be banned like guns because "firefighting should be left to professionals." It seems that I wasn't too far off.

I am so very glad my parents made the decision to relocate from the UK to Canada, and then to the United States. Just keep in mind there's nowhere left to retreat to at this point. Liberty must make its stand here. - Michael Z. Williamson

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Tuesday March 25 2008

Letter Re: Deep Family Roots Versus "Ideal Location" When Considering Relocation

Good Evening,
I've recently become a reader of your web site - thank you for the excellent resource.
Having read through your information on Recommended Retreat Areas, I have an additional question or two. My husband, kids and I currently live in Utah. He has family here, within an hour drive. We also live in a heavily populated area, right on the Wasatch Fault. That is worrisome. My mother, many cousins and close friends live in rural coastal North Carolina. My mom lives alone and is aging. We have thought ahead to the possibility of needing to care for her. She has a large house that is paid for and will pass on to me when she leaves this life.
My family has very strong ties to North Carolina, having ancestors in the same county for 200+ years. My husband and I have lived there together - he felt most welcome and fit in very well. We were part of a close knit church group, in addition to family and neighbors that looked out for each other. I know that the East Coast is not high on your list of places to be, and my family is in a hurricane/flooding zone. On the other hand, it's rural, the home is paid for, it's on almost two acres that can be used for small scale homesteading, and there is a family/friends support system in place. Do you feel that these things are more important than having a retreat in a specific location, i.e. West of the Mississippi? Thank you, - Mary C.

JWR Replies: As I described in my book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation, you cannot put a price tag on having deep roots in a community! Even if you were not known personally, if you are related and share a distinct surname with "one of the pioneer families", then you have an exceedingly valuable "in" in a rural area. This factor should weigh heavily in your choice of retreat locales.

My main objections to moving to the eastern United States are the generally higher population density, and the unfavorable downwind position of the eastern states in the event of a full scale nuclear exchange. You can fairly well mitigate both of of those drawbacks by:

1.) Building a home fallout/storm shelter (typically by upgrading an existing basement, or building a stand-alone shelter, such as those built by Safecastle), and

2.) By teaming up with contiguous neighbors or "doubling up" with another family that would share your house with you after TSHTF, to provide additional security for your retreat.

The only other significant limitation in your situation is owning less than two acres. Perhaps you could buy or lease some adjoining land. Good luck with your upcoming move!

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Two Letters Re: Some Offshore Retreat Considerations, by P. Traveler

James,

I see a lot of letters concerning 're-locating' out of the U.S. What are these people thinking? If there is one country that still has a modicum of privacy, freedom, and the ability to 'disappear' into the wilderness, then it is here in the U.S. Where in the world can you own the variety and quantity of firearms than here? [Where else can you] stockpile food, go off the grid et cetera? The legal system is still intact here as well, so you can win in court under most circumstances. I just cant figure Americans willing to give up this uniquely free country for some Third World gamble in some distant land completely removed from family, friends, heritage and culture. It boggles the mind. - Jason in N. Idaho

 

Jim,

I read with interest the article "Some Offshore Retreat Considerations", by P. Traveler. There was much of value in the article. I hope I can add some information for your readers. My circumstances are that I work and live in a South East Asian country for an International NGO. My background is prior military (paratrooper), Police and Prison service, followed by working as an NGO security officer in Bosnia and Sudan before taking my current post. I have a degree in Risk, Crisis and Disaster Management.

I am also married to a local woman which impacts my survival planning. In Asia you don't just marry a wife. You marry the entire extended family which brings some strengths and weaknesses.

Personally I am in the Jerry Pournelle school of survivalism: Prepared for, but trying to prevent TEOTWAWKI. See [Pournelle's] Foreword to the first edition of "Tappan on Survival" which says, in part:
"'[Mel Tappan] saw civilization as hopelessly doomed. Collapse was inevitable, and the only prudent thing to do was to be prepared for it. I didn't agree then, and I don't now. I think civilization can be saved. Can be. But I won't guarantee it. Be Prepared is a pretty good motto for anybody, scouts or anyone else. And of course there are times when I think Mel was right."

As Pournelle says, being prepared is a good and necessary thing. I would not call myself a retreater. That implies running away.

Quoting from Pournelle again:

"There's only one problem: I don't want to move. I like living in cities. The word 'civilized' originally meant those who can–and do–live in cities, and I happen to care a lot for my civilization. When challenged, I can make a reasoned defense of city life, but I shouldn't have to. I like it here. I don't intend to let the barbarians chase me out, and there's an end to the discussion!"

I have been following survivalism since I read the book 'Starman's Son' by Andre Norton. I did the usual bush survival stuff. I read Larry Dean Olson, Mel Tappan, Dr. Bruce Clayton, Soldier of Fortune [magazine] and American Survival Guide [magazine]. I always had my bugout bag and stores so I could go about my duties in law enforcement without having to worry about the home front. I note that since the 1980's the world has been collapsing so plan for things to go right as well as for things to go wrong. I am alarmed by people (especially on the Peak Oil sites) who tell young people not to go to college because the world is doomed anyway. If I had followed that advice I would be unemployed instead of working in interesting countries around the world. Just study something that is useful in both a collapse situation and in good times.

In Asia the survival unit is the extended family. I am particularly fortunate that the family I have married into is reasonably well educated but still has [native] survival skills. My wife's parents survived a period of auto-genocide despite the fact that my father in law had served on the opposing side during the war. It was family connections that kept him alive. My wife and her older brothers and sisters still know how to live off the land and farm. The younger ones are more of a concern and would have a more difficult time adjusting to a survival situation. They tend to be more interested in mobile phones and karaoke. Having said that, the bulk of the family accepts my arguments for survival precautions and things like food storage. The younger ones think I am a strange foreigner but the parents get it because they have lived survival. In a crisis the young ones still do what their parents tell them!

If you have family (or marry into one) it is almost certainly a bonus.

A few tips you might want to consider.

* In developing countries the medical care is not great. Consider doing a Wilderness EMT [W-EMT] First Responder course before you depart. The training will not be available locally.
* Get skills. They cannot take skills away. People have survived extreme situations with next to nothing.
* Asia is a great place to learn martial arts! [Although there are equally effective trainers in the US, Canada, Australasia and Europe. Still it is kind of fun training in Asia for someone who grew up watching 'Kung Fu' on TV.]
* Get mentally prepared. I would share with your readers the view that religious belief is important. Unlike most of your readers I am a Buddhist, as is my wife. But I follow the warrior view of Buddhism--not aging hippy pacifism which I believe to be immoral (and not really Buddhist).

* Study how the indigenous people survived and how any guerrilla groups operated in the country. If coming to Asia there are some jungle survival schools. (Web search engines are your friend!)
* If coming to Asia read some books about how non-Asians functioned behind the lines [during World War II] against the Japanese such as the Coast Watchers and the OSS/SOE. 'The Jungle is Neutral' By F. Spencer Chapman is a good book to start with.
* The book "The Sovereign Individual" by William Rees-Mogg and Basil Davidson has some strategies for protecting your wealth when overseas.
* Enjoy life. Take precautions, learn defensive skills, medical skills,and so forth. But try not to get a bunker mentality.
* Learn about urban permaculture and food production.
* When researching a country you might want to look at some books about Country Risk such as the 'The J Curve' and spend some time looking around the Carlton University site 'Country Indicators for Foreign Policy'
* Finally, while aimed at NGO security personnel, there are some good resources for people living in developing countries at this web site.

Regards, - Felix D.

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Monday March 24 2008

Two Letters Re: Using Natural Caves on Private Property

Greetings Jim, Memsahib, and Readers,
I wanted to mention a couple things regarding caves for shelter or storage. Many years ago, in my youth, I became interested in Spelunking (Caving) and was lucky enough to explore caves in Tennessee with seasoned Spelunkers with fifteen years experience. Depending on your climate you will not only get a 'wet season' where you have to deal with a lot of dampness but you may actually face the cave being almost totally under water. We found this out the hard way when on one trip the cave we were going to explore a lower chamber we found was totally submerged from the previous week's rains. We did manage to explore a upper chamber that was well above the water line. Even though the cave we explored was well hidden, as the one Linda H mentioned, others had used the entrance chamber because of discarded beer cans and trash left behind. And, yes, we packed out other's trash. Once we left the entrance chamber signs of others having frequented the other chambers faded away. But if you are curious about a cave, you can bet someone else has been curious also. After our trek of nearly six hours into the mountain we thought we found the end of the chamber's run. As all humans like to put their mark wherever they go I found a name, that was not very legible, and a date of 1784 carved (heavily scratched) into the rock. After looking around we located another chamber through a very small opening that had remnants of an old hemp rope leading through what would have been the ceiling of the extended chamber below us. Yep, we were reluctant to go farther or look to closely into the chamber just in case we found the remains of the person who explored before us.

To safely utilize a cave you have to have a very good knowledge of yearly rainfall patterns, and it is best to have a compilation of several years to give you a baseline of rainfall, and have a good knowledge of the variations of the water table in the area. Using a cave for shelter or storage in its natural state is one way to utilize a cave. However if the size of the chamber is large enough you may want to expend a bit more energy and expense if you intend to pass on the property to family later on. The perfect example of the best utilization of a cave for long term shelter and or storage is the old NORAD Cheyenne Mountain [Command and Control] Complex. Within the natural cavern is built a shelter system with all the comforts of home, and a few I wish I had. Of course our tax dollars built it and to go to those lengths would be problematic at best. But the basic concept of a shelter within a cave is not a far stretch and would provide a lot of comfort and protection for the occupants provided the cave is deemed habitable for the long term after compiling the climatic data. You would have to weigh such construction against not only costs but also to factors such as:

1. Would enlarging the entrance to accommodate construction materials, tooling, and manpower (even immediate family only) compromise the location?
2. Would the cave/constructed shelter be susceptible to flooding during prolonged rainy seasons?
3. Would the cave provide a source of water, or is there a close source of water that could provide the needed water or water storage for the shelter?
4. What type of power could be provided? The cave we explored could potentially provide hydropower if properly set up.
5. What are the range of temperatures through the seasons, and would prevailing winds impact the cave's temperature ranges; especially during winter months? You would have to consider ways of mitigating winter winds whipping through the cave.
6. Will the cave need a ventilation system to make sure that you don't have a buildup of carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide when occupied full time?
7. Does the cave, consistently or periodically, capture and retain any gases such as methane or other harmful gases that can be emitted from deeper in the earth from the geologic formation? And it would be a good idea to know the basic geology of the area so you know the stability of the cave. A cave in even with a constructed shelter within the cave could still pose a serious danger. And you may want to reinforce the cave ceiling just in case the geology slightly active (small tremors).
8. Is there an alternate or secondary entrance that could be utilized as an emergency exit or could it prove to be an access point for others to enter during a crisis.
9. If there is no other entrance or exit point, is it possible to construct one as an emergency exit? I would be reluctant to have a single entrance and exit point. If you have to dig an emergency exit you will need some very specialized equipment and skills to prevent a cave in, or suddenly finding yourself flooding the cave by hitting an underground spring or other high volume water source. It would be too easy for an adversary to simply block a single entrance and either starve you out or to fire on your position and use the rock walls to ricochet around until they hit someone, or to build a fire at the entrance to smoke you out. And a worse scenario would be for an adversary to cave in the entrance and seal you in until you died of suffocation.
10. Could the shelter or the cave provide any method of hydroponic gardening? If your shelter is the cave proper you will have to have access to an area where you can garden if you intend to occupy the shelter over a protracted period of time as the result of a nuke exchange or protracted pandemic.

These are just a few questions that come to mind and there are others that must be answered depending on how you want to utilize the cave. If you want to really kick your 'creative engine' into overdrive and see how mankind has utilized natural and man made underground structures then watch the History Channel program "Cities of the Underworld". It is absolutely amazing how people through the centuries utilized natural underground formations, and expanded them or built and utilized underground spaces. Mankind has covered over entire cities over the centuries as new construction has been built over old. Some of these underground areas have been done as far back as the Celtics of Ireland and Scotland as well as through the Middle Ages and Renaissance as well as the modern eras. There is one common thread, of different iterations but a singular concept, which runs through all of the construction techniques from the beginning; whether utilizing natural features or new construction over old cities. And this thread is utilized today. But I'll leave that to you to discover for yourself. - The Rabid One

 

Hi Jim,
The best way I know of to camouflage stuff (entrances, equipment, traps, etc.) with respect to its environment is to paint it with spray-on adhesive, the same kind that automotive upholsterers use, then simply take dry dirt and sprinkle it all over the painted areas (some moving parts, etc. you would of course want to mask-off, just like regular painting).

This provides an excellent base coat, even for things attached to trees, buildings, etc.

I still think the best book on the subject is the US Army "Camouflage" field manual (FM 5-20) from 1969: Regards, - Jerry E.

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Sunday March 23 2008

Some Offshore Retreat Considerations, by P. Traveler

Moving to a new area is a challenge, as any city-bred person from the US East Coast could tell you after his first winter in Wyoming. And the job market is not exactly as promising, either, at least for office workers. Yet, many make the move, and come to regret having waited so long before having done so. An even more difficult move is to go from the country of your birth and to explore a new life somewhere else. Many of our ancestors did this, however, and under far more difficult circumstances than you would face today. Just think of the “coffin ships” that the Irish came to North America on.

Before considering this big step, you should ask yourself what you are trying to achieve and what types of disasters you are hoping to survive. Is it a local disaster, such as flooding, or the disaster of your country going down the drain? You can prepare for almost all natural disasters without the need to move. However, if you are worried about something along the lines of serious civic unrest or even a civil war, then you may want to consider a more dramatic move. For example, if you had been living in the Soviet Union when it came crashing down, but had had German ancestry, you could have moved to Germany. Would you have done so?

Once you have decided to pursue the possibility of moving, you should consider the fact that serious trade-offs will be required, as there is no perfect place in this world. You will have to weigh and balance many new issues in a way that you don’t now. For example, some countries often have low crime, but may seem a bit regimented, such as Singapore. Other countries may be relatively free, but lacking in modern infrastructure.

1. Review all the issues that would apply if you moved within your country. They still apply - only more so. If you can’t handle the snow in Idaho, you won’t do much better in Switzerland. If you can’t afford a house plus a retreat in the Western US, then you probably won’t be able to pull it off in Costa Rica, either. Yes, it’s true that prices are lower in less-developed countries, but the days of the dollar being as good as gold are long gone.

2. Make a list of needs, wants, and can’t haves for everyone in the family. Witho