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Saturday December 12 2009

A Wilderness Hide Location for a Planned Evacuation, by J.I.R.

A period of lawlessness may prevail after any major interruption of services. We all know this and try to plan. But have we really realistically faced what this means? Once the food trucks stop arriving, US cities and towns have less than a week before food riots and general looting begins. If things get really bad, there are going to be literally millions of people starving, thirsty and sick, willing to do whatever it takes to survive. The simple math points to a huge die-off unless the government can maintain control and re-institute some emergency measures. In the worst case scenarios, almost any preparations you can make seem woefully inadequate. The challenge may come down to surviving the die-off and not becoming one of the unmarked graves.

Face facts, this throng of hungry, desperate people are going to be heavily armed, just like you. Many of them are going to have military and law enforcement experience. Also, remember that every piece of military equipment in the government's arsenal is going to be owned and used by someone. Those machineguns and rocket launchers and mortars are not going to just evaporate. [JWR Adds: It is noteworthy that with very few exceptions, National Guard and Reserve units have not stored live ammo at their local armories since the 1960s. Looters might eventually cut their way in to arms room vaults, and they'll indeed find mortars, machineguns, and grenade launchers, but not mortar rounds, grenades, or belts of machinegun ammo. Their ammo is stored only at active duty installation Ammo Supply Points (ASPs).] The point is, the teeming population is not just going to die off quietly and go away until all of the food they can locate is gone.

Whether these hungry people come at you as small gangs of thugs or as ad-hoc governments equipped with arm-bands, they are going to systematically look for food and supplies. If you are anywhere near a population center, you are going to be looted and perhaps killed. No matter how many buckets of nitrogen packed wheat you have cleverly stored in your basement, you are almost certainly going to lose it all when the local "committee" searches your house for "contraband" or "hoarding".

Single family dwelling homes and apartments without power are nothing more than inconveniently located caves. They are impossible to hide and very difficult to defend. Any determined group of raiders (or whomever) are going to pick your bones if you try to "Custer" inside a modern American home. The very fact that you are living there will be proof that you have something they want. If it looks deserted, they will still search the place thoroughly looking for food. When that happens, you will either have to fight to keep your possessions or you will have to evacuate or "bug out". Where will you go? What will you need to carry? Most "Bug out Bag" plans that I have seen don't measure up. A planned evacuation is a lot better than a "grab stuff and go" emergency. Your current home can be expendable if you plan for it.

For folks with military training, or the willingness to learn, a compromise can be to set up a semi-mobile encampment. This concept is based on a Long Range Surveillance (LRS) "Hide site". Sort of a patrol base for extended stay. For an explanation, see the Wikipedia page on LRS. Most LRS hide sites are used for a maximum of two weeks, but their occupancy can be extended for months with additional supplies. If you use your head setting up a hide site, you can avoid having to fight to keep your things. It's much better to hide than fight. Setting up a site is relatively simple if you follow sound tactical principles. With a little luck and discipline, you can stay invisible for extended periods.

The reference document for LRS hide sites is US Army FM-7-93. Appendix E contains a lot of good source material. While most of this field manual will not be appropriate for simple survival, it contains a lot of good ideas if you have no experience and have never considered this topic. You don't have to create a site as extreme as the FM describes to have a survivable hide site.

The location you select is the most important factor. Ideally, you need a patch of wilderness that offers nothing that anyone wants. Parks and national forest lands are good choices. The only resources there are firewood and perhaps game animals. If you can find an area that has neither of these, you are better off still. The point is this: Find a place where nobody is going to go looking for something they need. Desperate people are not going to walk randomly, they are going to drive if they can and walk if they must. They are going to follow lines of communication that have a reasonable chance of taking them to resources. If you can find a place that is isolated away from roads and undeveloped, you are half way there.

You need to choose an area within half a tank of gas to your home, but a mile or so from the nearest road or anything most people would want. It needs to be close enough to a creek to carry water and as rough and remote as you can find. At such a site, you could conceivably remain for months without being detected. With a little planning, you can build a hide site in a matter of hours and it will be stronger tactically than any normal dwelling. Plus you can make it as undetectable as your imagination and discipline will let you.

If you already have a well stocked retreat or working farm with dozens of acres, consider pre-positioning most of your goods in hidden caches on your own property, and setting up a hide site in advance. When (not if) your retreat is attacked, you will have someplace to run and supplies that remain available. You can even use your existing well or water supply if you plan well. Remember, if you make your retreat too comfortable, someone may take it from you and keep it. Try to make it look like any other house without water or power and looters will probably just move on once they sack it. You can move back in later and tidy up the mess instead of having to fight. Hide your comforts and supplies well.

I recommend "digging in" three different sites, within rifle range of each other, all of them concealed and preferably booby-trapped. (LRS teams always carry a lot of mechanicals, like Claymore mines. Finding them is hazardous to your health and killing them is even harder). The basic hide site is low and hidden. Any tarps you use must be as close to ground level as possible and well hidden from view by covering them with dirt and debris. Setting up inside stands of scrub brush is a common tactic. Digging most of it underground is also common. The goal is to make the site as invisible as you can make it, even from close range. You want a casual intruder to walk right by it without noticing anything.

1st site. A kitchen area/living area/kill zone with fighting positions dug-in for emergencies. Make it as hard to find as you are able. Use brush and natural terrain features to mask it from casual view. If attacked or discovered, the guard post (described below) will be your ace in the hole. If your site is discovered or someone approaches, dive for cover and wait them out. If your kitchen area remains undiscovered, all is well, but If you absolutely have to fight, being dug in with a real fighting position will give you a major edge and your guard post will come as a very nasty surprise.

2nd site. A Guard post/sleeping area/fighting position well hidden. It should overwatch both other sites and have a good field of view covering likely avenues of approach. These two sites should be able to provide supporting fire for each other. You also need to provide a covered egress route of some kind in case you have to evacuate the site. Radios to communicate between fighting positions are very handy and so are night optical devices of all kinds. During hours of activity, this site remains manned by a guard with a rifle. At night it is the only manned site. One person stays on guard and everyone else can sack out.

3rd (or more) sites. A cache for most of your stores within rifle range but completely concealed. If you lose your entire hide site, you can always double back in a few days and pick up your stuff. The third cache is a life saver if you really have to run for it. This site should be completely undetectable. That means buried and carefully camouflaged. A good reference for establishing a cache is Army TC 31-29/A

A Fourth site for the truck(s) and other vehicles should be established about a mile away. Make your vehicles look abandoned and drain them of fuel. Make no mistake, they really are abandoned. You may be able to recover them, but you will probably lose them. Once you occupy your main site, you must not keep visiting your vehicles. [JWR Adds: It doesn't take long to remove their batteries. This further disables the vehicles to discourage theft, and those batteries could come in handy. And even more elaborate measure os putting vehicles up on blocks and removing their wheels to hide them separately. That will truly make them look abandoned, and make it very difficult for the vehicles to be stolen. ]

You should be able to carry water to the kitchen area and purify it, do all your cooking and eating and living there. Generally do anything there that is hard to hide. Sleep off-site at the sleeping area in case the main base is discovered and attacked at night. If you have at least three adults, you can keep a guard at all times and still get all the chores done. Fewer people means you will only occupy your sleeping site at night. Six or more adults would be needed to make a hide site into a fortress, so you are depending on stealth for most of your protection. If you are alone, stealth is all you really have.

Cover your tracks. Don't wear a path between your sites. You don't want discovery of one site to lead to discovery of the others. This goes double for your water source. There should be no way to tell someone is using the creek, well or pond. This takes a lot of discipline.

Your kitchen area is the hardest to hide. Smoke from cooking fires is the biggest danger. You can avoid detection by using a propane or other type of cooking stove and cooking only non-smelly foods. (Odor from grilling meat can carry for miles, but simmering cracked wheat is not so bad.) If you plan to cook something smelly, consider cooking it up to a mile away from your hide site to avoid detection. In any case, no food should be eaten or prepared in the sleeping area. The sleeping area and guard post must remain undetectable at all times.

If the kitchen area is discovered while you are sleeping, you can either choose to fight or give them the kitchen. You may be able to lay low and avoid detection even if a whole gang shows up and discovers your kitchen/living area. They will only get a portion of your stocks and everybody gets to live another day. If you have access to Claymore mines and/or M16 bounding mines, you can probably use the kitchen as a kill zone and wipe out many times your number in bad guys, but remember, stealth is your biggest defense and any fighting entails a lot of risk.

Strangers that stumble upon your site can be dealt with in several ways. Simply hiding is a good approach if you can pull it off. If hiding is out, you will either have to talk to them or fight. If they are hunters and seem fairly well provisioned, be friendly and show them as little of your site as possible. Under no circumstances, show them your main food cache. Everyone has limits, so don't tempt them. They should not see anything they are willing to fight to possess. A couple of buckets of food are probably not worth getting shot over. If they are a small group and desperate, consider adopting them. Most people are pretty decent and if they see a good reason to team with you, they will do it. If you are all trying to survive and they see you as an ally, you are probably fairly safe. The added security of a few extra people could be a real plus. If your site has been compromised, remember, you can always move. You can even leave your cache in place and simply move your other two sites a couple of miles and you may be safe again.

You will need some supplies and equipment to hide in relative comfort. The suggested bug out bag for this scenario is a whole pickup truck load of stuff: Even if you wind up going to a shelter or a community center, you won't be showing up hungry with your hand out.

Weapons: In order to fight realistically, you will need a good rifle and of course ammunition for anyone in the group with skill. I personally prefer an old scoped Ishapore 2A1 [Enfiield] chambered in 7.62mm NATO, but almost anything will do as long as it is robust and you are skilled with it. Also a pump shotgun with lots of buckshot can be a real killer in a night fight. Night sights of some kind on the rifle are really useful. Modern thermal sights can be devastating. With luck and discipline you won't ever need to shoot anything, but having any firearm is much better than having none at all, and a rifle always beats a pistol at long range.)

An extra rifles to cache, with ammo, might be handy if you can keep them weatherproof.

Lots of buckets of storage food (Keep it all cached except one or two buckets at a time). 10 or more 5 gallon buckets of food per person is not excessive. The more food you have with you, the longer you can stay.

A case of MREs for each person, stored in the sleeping area. Also, your packs need to be wherever you are at all times. Remember to store water in the sleeping area. More than you think you need.
A main kitchen and backup stuff to keep cached. (in case you lose the kitchen).

When you are setting up your site, you will have to make multiple trips from the vehicles, but the more food you have, the longer you can stay hidden. Multiple caches can be strung out along an escape route or the route back to the trucks. Also, you will need basic camping gear and water purification, field sanitation supplies etc.

For each adult:

Backpack with frame : This is your last ditch bag and should be near you at all times.
Water filter (PUR backpack model) is a good one
polar pure Iodine crystals in every pack. They are light, cheap and essential.
Several plastic garbage bags. These have multiple uses. You can't have too many.
2 x canteens with cups. This allow you to carry some water and cook if you must.
6 x MRE in the pack (12 more at the cache or sleeping site)
P38 can opener
2 butane lighters
2 camping candles or other heat source
Box of self striking fire starters are sometimes handy

* LED light and spare batteries (rechargeable) can come in handy
*Someone should carry a 4 watt solar battery charger. These are important to have along [to charge batteries for night vision, communications, and intrusion detection gear.]

Generator radio AM/FM/Weather (with cell phone charger and LED light) This is a critical piece of equipment, so have two of them, but be careful not to play it out loud. Ear buds or head sets will keep you from giving your site away. Boredom is your biggest enemy and a radio can be a great way to stay entertained and silent [when not on a watch shift.]

A good sleeping bag is a must. It's cold underground or when you aren't moving.
Insulating ground pad is also a must.
1 emergency blanket/poncho
1 poncho liner (Army. Great piece of gear!)
1 x large drop cloth and a roll of heavy plastic are handy for underground living.
1 hat and wool glove inserts
1 set of thermal underwear (tops and bottoms)
An extra set of clothing. BDUs or other outdoor wear and a spare pair of boots (Clothing can be rolled up inside a plastic sheet and put into a laundry bag and carried outside the pack). Remember, extra socks and underwear are always needed!

Ka-Bar sheath knife (7 inch) or equivalent.
Leatherman Multitool or a Swiss army knife
Small machete (at least one in the group is very handy and has multiple uses).

Medical Stuff (I recommend keeping this with your last ditch bag)
Spare eyeglasses if needed
First Aid Kit for minor wounds
sewing kit
aspirin
Imodium for emergency treatment of diarrhea (packets of salts are even better)
iodine swabs
burn cream (not much is needed, but if you need it you will be glad you have it)
Anbesol
Chap stick or petroleum jelly
white tape
emergency blanket (cheap is fine)
Scalpels or Razor blades
Safety pins
Large bandages (2 or 3 can be life savers if someone is shot)
Dental floss
hand sanitizer
Insect Repellant
small lock blade knife
tweezers
Prescription medication
ID cards, credit cards, cash on hand

A pistol of some kind. I highly recommend the Ruger SP101 in .357 Magnum and a couple of speed loaders.

Other stuff to load in your truck or large car:
A bicycle! You can load a lot of stuff on a bicycle and cut down on the number of trips required from the vehicles to the hide site. Bike tracks are a giveaway, so make sure they start at least 25 meters from your vehicles and erase them as well as possible after the last trip. Whatever you use, be prepared and willing to haul everything by hand from your vehicles to the site. Without a bike or dolly, its going to require something like 12 trips. You can improve on this by using a cargo carrier of some kind. Vary your route between the vehicle and hide site to minimize your tracks. You might want to unload and then move your vehicles to avoid anyone tracking you.

Shovel, crosscut saw, axe or hatchet and pick axe (army E tools are light, but not as good as full size tools). All tools should be loaded in a bag that you can sling or tie to a bike.
100 ft roll of repelling rope may be very handy. 550 cord is also handy.
A roll of wire for rigging noise makers and rigging brush and shelter

Food: You will want 10 or 11 buckets for each member of your group:
6 buckets of wheat, 2 buckets of beans and 4 gallons of oil.
2 buckets of rice (and a bucket of sugar if you wish). and 2 pounds of salt. Spices and bullion are
very nice to have, but beware of odors!
This will be the bulk of your provisions and will weigh something like 400 pounds per person! Don't begrudge the weight. It will get lighter soon enough.
*24 rolls of toilet paper (in a plastic bag) You will miss this if you don't have any.
At least one grain mill. Two is much better. You can hide the extr aone in your cache.

(Split between 2 Duffel bags per 2 people): (this is your kitchen/living area stuff)
24 x MRE
Sterno stove + large candle heater in a can (12 face-inches of wick makes a lot of heat)
Fuel (10lb, paraffin to recharge cooker. Each pound will burn several hours with care )
If you are going to burn wood for fuel, use a hobo stove to minimize smoke and light.
4 pots. (2 for cooking, 1 for cleaning and one left with the food cache.)
A dutch oven is really handy. You won't regret the weight long when you cook with it
Tea, Coffee, Sugar, Gatorade powder
Tobacco (2 x 6 oz cans with rolling papers) (for those with a monkey on their backs)
Water, 6 liters (12 x 1/2 liter plastic bottles)
plastic bags. 20 heavy trash liners and 20 freezer storage bags
Spare batteries (12 x AA. Mostly for charity)
Soap, washcloth and towels (2 large ones)
4 large Poly Tarps (camo) and 550 chord
Fem pads (for that time of month. Include at least one bag per female per month)
Deck of cards
Bible and other reading material. Boredom will get you killed. Depression will too.
It might be worth the weight to carry a lot of books. Reading is a quiet activity and could keep you from going out of your mind!

In a suitcase or preferably another bucket that's waterproof (keep in the sleeping area.): Hat and wool glove inserts for each person. Extra clothing is good to have.
A wool sweater and outer cold weather gear. Blankets will be handy.

If you can manage to set up a hide site with these few essentials without anyone observing you, you can probably stay hidden for up to 200 days with care. That six month breather will allow you ample time to assess the conditions of the local area and plan your next move. More importantly, if a major population die-off is going on, a well stocked hide site will allow you to miss most of it. Hiding outdoors is not easy or comfortable, but it may be your best way to keep breathing.

[JWR Adds: Even the best defended retreat can't expect to hold out against a determined and well-equipped fighting force. If you hear that the muy malo hombres (or a nearby polity with kleptomaniacal intent) is heading up the road, abandoning your retreat may be your only choice.

As I have mentioned time and again in SurvivalBlog, pre-positioning supplies at your retreat is essential. You will not have time to pack. If you are fortunate, you will have time to put on your shoes. Having a hide prepared a half day's hike from your retreat, with food and gear already there, means you could avoid having to choose between an untenable fight and starving in the woods. Having a hide prepared could give you a couple weeks in safety to see what develops. You could then return to (or retake) your retreat, or abandon the area entirely, at your discretion.]

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Thursday December 10 2009

Preparedness Considerations for Surviving in Florida, by The Rucker

Most of the books and preparedness literature available seem to assume that our post-TEOTWAWKI lives will be in a place where we can expect cold winters and the four traditional seasons.  I understand the attraction of relocating to a mountain retreat in a lightly populated northern or western state, but like many others my current preparedness plan is for in-place survival.  I just so happen to live in tropical Florida.  I believe that many of these same considerations apply for those living in southern Louisiana, Alabama, and Texas.

There are both challenges and advantages to choosing a tropical location like Florida when considering long-term survival.  Generally accepted approaches to water storage, food storage, food sources, shelter, power, health issues, tools, clothing, and security issues must all be re-examined in light of the environmental differences between Florida and the mountainous northern states.  The plans presented in most preparedness books must be adjusted to account for these differences.

The humid subtropical zone that contains Florida and much of the southeastern United States requires different tactics and equipment than those used for the semi-arid west and continental northern regions.  In Florida, the debate rages on where to draw the ‘freeze’ line.  This is the imaginary line south of which, usually, it will not freeze.  Some put this at about 80 miles north of Orlando; others as far south as Lake Okeechobee.  In any case, the winters are very mild in Florida. Temperatures in much of Florida are rarely below 60 for more than a few weeks.  The humidity, however, is often extreme.  This means that we need to be less concerned about storing cold weather gear like sleeping bags, warm clothes, and fuel for heating and more concerned about protection from sun, insects, mold, fungus, and heat.  On the plus side, the climate here also means an extended growing season.

Everyone knows that the weather in Florida can be volatile.  Those that live in Florida must be prepared for hurricanes.  If you don’t already own hurricane shutters or screens, this should be one of your first priorities to protect your residence over the long term.  Depending on the materials selected for these shutters, they could also provide additional protection for your family from other threats – such as gunfire.  A home generator is also almost a requirement for residents of tropical climates.  In many tropical areas like Florida, most of the power lines are still above ground and the utility power is frequently out when these lines are blown down.  These utility lines are gradually being moved below ground, but it is a massive undertaking that will take years.  If you choose to live near the ocean, make sure that your home is elevated above sea level as far as possible so that you are less susceptible to flooding associated with a storm surge.  Or, at the very least, store a good supply of sand bags.  Florida is known as the ‘Sunshine State’ and it does get a lot of sun.  Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas get more sun, but Florida is still eminently suitable for using the sun for power.  If you are near the beach, you can also count on being able to consistently generate power from the wind. 

The location of your home or retreat in Florida or any other tropical area may be critical.  As of 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the population of Florida at over 18 million.  As many as 11 million of these people live in the largest population centers like Miami, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, Jacksonville, and West Palm Beach.  I probably don’t have to tell you – but, I will anyway.  Avoid these large cities.  Check the web site FloridaDisaster.org for the published evacuation routes.  These will likely be the same routes used for population migration out of Florida in the event of a major disaster or societal collapse.  Much of the traffic will have to go up the major north-south interstate highways like 4, 75, and 95.  Those living in close proximity to these routes will be at higher risk of looting, theft, and assault.  When looking for a retreat or place to live, look for the less populated areas that might be somewhat insulated from these migration routes.  You might consider living in one of the rural locations in central Florida or north Florida that are lightly populated.  I have chosen to live on a lightly populated stretch of the barrier island that runs the entire length of the state.  There are a limited number of causeways that control access to the barrier island from the mainland.  The island is narrow enough in many places to be defensible.  And, if necessary, evacuation by boat is possible using either the inter-coastal waterway or the ocean.

A sailboat can provide some additional benefits besides the option of escape or evacuation.  It can be used to store additional supplies.  It can be used for transportation and fishing long after a fuel shortage renders power boats useless or uneconomical.  It can be a self-contained mobile survival retreat when equipped with a desalination unit to provide fresh water from salt water and with solar PV and wind generator to charge onboard batteries that operate lights, radios, satellite GPS, fish finders, and other useful gear.  When anchored in a calm river or bay, it can offer a degree of security. 
One of the unique things about Florida is that the water table is very high – especially near the beach.  This makes it fairly simple to drill a water well, but it also means that very few Florida homes that have basements or cellars – it’s just too wet.  That means limited access to storage space for food and equipment. It also means that very few Floridians have access to below-ground shelter that would provide any decent level of protection from nuclear or radiological attack.  A garage can be used for storage, but this is often not a good choice either due to the high heat and humidity.  Near the beach, the high salt content in the air causes any exposed metal to corrode relatively quickly.  This means that the options for food and equipment storage are more limited.  One option is to set aside areas of the home that can be used for storage where the temperature and humidity are controlled.  Or, rent a climate controlled storage unit that is easily accessible to your home.  Another option is to build a climate controlled storage area in your garage or utility outbuilding.  This could also be useful as a fallout shelter if designed with enough shielding and HEPA air filtration.

Access to drinking water must be a primary concern of any preparedness plan.  However, in most tropical locations like Florida there is a lot of water available – fresh, brackish, and salt.  Many homes in Florida and other tropical locations have a large reservoir of fresh water at hand – the swimming pool.  But, care must be taken to ensure that this water source is protected from evaporation and contamination in the event that utility water is not available.  Make sure that you have a pool cover or a sufficient quantity of large plastic sheeting to cover the pool.  Head to the swimming pool supply store and stock up on the granular calcium hypochlorite that is used to treat your pool water.  This form of chlorine can be corrosive and reactive, so be careful to store it in a dry, secure place and rotate it as you would your food supply.  The same chemicals that are used to keep your pool clear and algae-free will allow you to disinfect your pool water for drinking purposes.  Filtering the water through an activated charcoal filter will remove the chlorine taste of the water.  A high-volume gravity-fed water filtration unit like those sold by Berkey, Katadyn, or AquaRain should be a key component in your long-term water plan.  Desalination units, such as those installed in some sail and power boats can provide a critical advantage in securing access to clean water.

As mentioned above, food storage can be a challenge.  Use plastic and glass to store and preserve your food supplies rather than metal cans.  Even stainless steel rusts eventually in the salt air.  Silica gel desiccant is your friend in a humid environment.  Use it to control moisture in stored ammunition, food, electronic equipment, and anything else that you don’t want to rust or corrode.   Batteries left in electronics or flashlights corrode quickly, so check and change them regularly or else store them without the batteries installed.  If you seal your electronics in Mylar bags with desiccant packs, you’ll protect them from moisture as well as protecting them from the effects of electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

Plan to establish a sustainable food supply. Even if you don’t already keep a garden, learn what grows and doesn’t grow in your soil and climate.  There is a wide range of soil types in Florida.  In sandy soil and humid environments near the beach, dietary staples might include the cassava, yams, sweet potatoes, bananas, plantains, coconut, date, heart of palm, citrus, peppers, and rice.  Other inland areas of Florida with richer, drier soil might better sustain traditional vegetables like potatoes, carrots, peas, beans, squash, and others.  Fishing opportunities abound in Florida and may provide one of the most easily acquired sources of protein.  Salt water fish can be taken from a boat, by snorkeling with a spear gun, or by surf fishing from the beach.  Traps can be set for crab and spiny lobster.  Rock shrimp can be netted from the river.  Bass, catfish, and many other species of fish are abundant in the rivers, lakes, and ponds.  Anyone that intends to remain in place in Florida should acquire the equipment and practice the techniques using cast nets, surf fishing and fresh water fishing with rod and reel.   Wild pigs are a real pest in Florida and can provide fat and protein in a diet.  Deer, turkey, duck, and goose are also available as are a variety of other water birds.  Alligator might be another source of protein for those near rivers or lakes where they live.

When choosing clothing for a tropical environment like Florida, give preference to lightweight, breathable, manmade fibers that will keep you cool and still wick sweat from your skin.  Avoid cotton and wool fabrics that will deteriorate and mold in a hot and humid environment.  When working or hunting outside, long sleeves and long pants should be worn to protect from sun and insects.  Be sure to have wide brim hats for protection from the sun and rain.  Good rain gear is a must for each member of the family along with good, high-top, waterproof boots. Consider a set of rubber waders for those that might be fishing or hunting in the wetlands and swamps.  Mosquito face nets will become more and more necessary when the commercial spraying currently used to keep down the mosquito population is no longer available. 

There are some unique health issues to consider in Florida and other subtropical or tropical regions when man-made pesticides and fungicides are no longer available.  Malaria and other mosquito borne diseases are not currently a concern in Florida.  But, they could become a factor again when the means currently used to control them no longer is employed.  In other parts of the world, mosquitoes spread encephalitis, dengue fever, yellow fever, West Nile virus, and other diseases.  Anti-malarial medications should be stocked.  Screens for doors and windows should be installed or repaired.  Standing sources of water where mosquitoes breed should be eliminated as far as possible.  Mosquito nets should be purchased and used to protect sleepers in bed during the night.  Be certain to stock mosquito and insect repellant with a high percentage of DEET. Ticks, fire ants, cockroaches, termites, and other insects are currently controlled only by extreme efforts using chemicals in many subtropical areas of the U.S.  Ticks carry Lyme disease, tularemia, and Rocky Mountain spotted fever among other diseases.  Fire ant bites can produce fatal anaphylaxis in those allergic.  They destroy small ground nesting animals and birds and have had a very negative effect on the wild populations of dove and quail in Florida. These pests and others could all become significant hazards to our health, food sources and possessions when the current suppression methods are no longer available. Molds and fungus are also causes for health concerns for those in tropical areas.  Mold or fungus infections can be serious in humans and difficult to eradicate.  They can poison or destroy food and make our home unlivable.   To combat mold, keep fabrics clean and dry.  Avoid cotton and natural fibers in favor or man-made fibers that are more resistant.  Use a dilute solution of bleach (sodium hypochlorite) or quaternary ammonium compounds to kill or clean up mold or fungus.  Be sure to wear a filter or gas mask when cleaning up mold.  Breathing mold spores can have long term health consequences.    You may want to stock mold and mildew inhibiting products like paradicholorobenzene or paraformaldehyde powder from the drugstore.  Be careful to store these chemicals and all pesticides away from food and access by children.  Be sure to have a supply of sunscreen available for additional protection from the sun.  This is an area that you should research carefully as many of the chemicals and additives in sunscreen are harmful.

In a tropical environment, there are tools and equipment that can be very useful that may not be needed in other environments.  Each adult should have a good quality machete or woodsman’s blade.  Cold Steel produces a variety of heavy machetes that are suitable for the brush and growth in the Florida wetlands and swamps.  Cutting is done with the end of the blade, so get one that is long enough provide the leverage to cut relatively thick branches and vines without multiple cuts.  Besides clearing brush, they are also good general purpose tools for defense against snakes (or men), cutting wood, butchering, and many other tasks.  Monofilament cast nets are great for catching small fish that can be used for bait or just dried for food.  Crab or lobster traps and long-handled shrimp nets can provide an additional source of protein if you have a boat that can be used to drop them.   If you are near the ocean, snorkeling gear and a spear gun can allow you to harvest fish and turtles even if compressed air isn’t available for diving.  Fishing equipment – hook, lines, leaders, etc. - will probably take the place of some of the hunting equipment that those in other climates might acquire.  Consider stocking naval jelly for rust removal and plenty of paint for protecting exposed metal.   Firearms may be the most important tools to Florida residents in the event of TEOTWAWKI.  Florida has a large population and, at some point, a lot of them may be looking for food.  Prepare to be charitable.  Prepare to defend your family, life, and property, as well.

These are just some of the considerations for surviving in a humid, subtropical zone like Florida in the event of a collapse, but I hope that it will provide food for thought and a starting point for modifying the plans and recommendations published elsewhere to be more effective for this environment. 

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Tuesday December 8 2009

Letter Re: Buying a House in Australia?

Dear James:
To follow up on a previous post, as information for US citizens looking to relocate to Australia, I offer a few very general suggestions.

Although Australia is a large continent, most of the population is located on the eastern sea-board mostly because of the arid interior. House prices have not fallen dramatically during the GFC and houses in capital cities are dearer than those in regional centres. But even in capital cities, there can be great differences in house prices in the different suburbs. I suggest that in the first instance that anyone relocating, rents for a period of time until they find their feet, a job, a location and a lifestyle with which they feel comfortable.

For a general overview of housing in Australia I suggest browsing through Realestate.com.au or Domain.com.au. Both of those sites will give plenty of information on houses/units/land for sale and houses/units for rent. - Margaret G.

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Monday December 7 2009

Letter Re: Buying a House in Australia?

Dear Mr Rawles,
I pray that God may continue pouring His comfort, love and strength upon you and your family in these difficult times.

My wife and I will finally settle down in Melbourne, Australia in 2010 after years of relocating internationally due to my work - we finally obtained the Australian resident permit! As a result of all the traveling, we have also had to leave all our savings in banks for all these years.

We prefer living in a region to know it well before purchasing property, so we will probably purchase a house sometime in 2010-2011. As many (including yourself) have convinced me of rising gold prices and crashing fiat values in the coming years, it makes a lot of sense to buy Australian gold bullion/stamped bars using our savings, and converting them to cash just before purchasing property.

What is your opinion on this? The worst-case scenario I can see is a minor loss in profitability whereby interests from the bank would have yielded more 'profit'. As I am risk-averse, there are few 'investment' opportunities for me outside of term deposits. Thanks for your advice. Blessings, - David C.

JWR Replies: I cannot comment on the particulars of the housing market in Oz, but it is apparent that the real estate market is far from the recovery stage in the US and presumably in the rest of the English-speaking nations. Here in the States, I suspect that it will be 6 to 12 years before the residential real estate market recovers. But things might be considerably different, Down Under. With that said, if you find a truly retreat-worthy property (say, with a shallow well, defendable acreage with plenty of room for gardens, and that has an exposure advantageous for photovoltaics) and you an buy it below current market prices, then you might consider it. Just keep in mind that prices are likely to continue to drop, and it may be a long time before that investment that will appreciate in value. if you do decide ito park your money in tangibles--and you probably should do just that if you are indeed risk averse--then Australian Mint Kookaburra one ounce gold coins are a good choice. Just be sure to buy ion a "dip" day.

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Wednesday December 2 2009

Pacific Coastal Living and Survival, by K.R.

This essay has been written from my personal experience and that of others. This suggested course of preparedness and action in the event of TEOTWAWKI will not be for everyone. Instead, I address those who live on the coast due to reasons such as; nearness to family, proximity to work, tight finances , or it could simply apply to those who might be caught on or near the coast should the events we prepare for take place.

Quite a few years ago while I was working for a floatplane company in S.E. Alaska, two of our float planes returned from a State Trooper charter. The first floatplane contained numerous sporting goods; coolers, firearms, lanterns, small outboard motors, sleeping bags along with other items used for camping or boating. The second aircraft had a couple troopers along with a young man, cuffed, who apparently had been living at a U.S.F.S. trailhead. This trailhead though inaccessible by road, has a float right on the saltwater that weekend fisherman and those simply wishing to get away were able to tie up to with their boats and leave unattended while they hiked up the trail. The trail itself follows a saltwater lagoon leading to a small church summer camp and a nice sized river that drains several lakes. This watershed is a popular fishing area due to a high trout population and migrating salmon. Dense forests surround the trail and few venture away from it.

This young man, as we later learned, had been living quite some time in the vicinity of the trailhead, had left a “Lower 48” state due to apprehensions over an infraction with the law and had become a fugitive. After locating himself to this secluded site, he had begun raiding the trail user’s vessels. After a number of complaints regarding stolen gear the troopers began to suspect that someone was perhaps living in the heavily wooded and stealing to survive. Troopers were able to successfully catch the young man in the act of sneaking down to a boat and he was removed from the scene and charged for his crimes of theft. Apparently he had been out there many months and possibly, by being a just a little more discreet he could have remained quite a while longer before being discovered.

I use this story to illustrate that one can, with proper preparation and the right equipment, live indefinitely on the Pacific Coastal areas many of which are rich in food resources and due to inaccessibility these same areas offer some of the most remote locations in North America.

Coastal Indian tribes, from Washington going up through British Columbia and into S.E. Alaska were known for their totems and wonderful carvings in their clan houses. These tribes, as has been noted by anthropologists, were able to spend a generous portion of their time devoted to carving because of higher food concentrations on the coasts hence lessening the need for extended travel and migration such as the plains tribes or mountain tribes were compelled to do to stay alive, while they hunted or foraged. Some of the advantages for coastal living then are still practical today for the survivalist; mobility which also offers seclusion, a maritime climate, rich food sources and plenty of fresh water availability.

Before we examine these advantages, lets first look at some geographical facts. For purposes that are obvious due to population densities we will focus on Alaska and British Columbia although Oregon and Washington will receive honorable mention and we will discuss further reasons one would consider coastal survival here, or for that matter on any seacoast. Miles of tidal shoreline in each respective state or province are can be found here: Coastal mileages by state. [JWR Adds: Because of terrain fractalization, these are rough estimates.]

Oregon: 1,410 miles. A major disadvantage to this state is lack of “protected” waters, however, these waters are very rich in seafood. My family and I spent two winters in the Gold Beach area, during which we spent every spare moment exploring the logging roads and the beaches. The incredible amount of deer, elk, wild turkeys, quail, and waterfowl that crowd that also reside there simply amazed us. This area is known to have it’s own microclimate and is considered by many to be a “banana belt” on the Oregon Coast.

Washington: 3,026 miles. I was raised in western Washington. Puget Sound alone accounts for 2,500 of these.

British Columbia (B.C.): 16,900 miles. The famed “Inside Passage” leading up to the 1898 Gold Rush port of Skagway travels of course through British Columbia. I have navigated the Inside Passage by small vessel four times. Twice on a 46’ commercial fishing troller, once in a friend’s pleasure craft live a board, and once running my own vessel up. All trips originated in Washington State and ended in S.E. Alaska. Traveling through B.C. has always been a pleasant experience for me, whether by pick-up, van, motorcycle or boat. Travel through B.C. by vessel requires checking in with Canadian Customs. Traveling with firearms through Canada is strictly regulated, although with the proper registration one may travel with some rifles and shotguns. It is fair to say that in the event of TEOTWAWKI, survival of one’s family would trump certain written laws each would have to decide for himself which risks would be taken.

S.E. Alaska: 10,000 miles. South East Alaska is comprised of a narrow strip of mainland and over 2,000 islands. The southern boundary starts at a large body of water known as Dixon Entrance and runs up to Cross Sound, continuing again along mainland coast to the remote town of Yakutat. S.E. Alaska is also referred to as the “Panhandle”. To keep things a little simpler, I am not going to discuss that portion of coastal Alaska known as South Central due primarily to geographical isolation and weather patterns which are quite simply extreme. I acknowledge that South Central Alaska including Prince William Sound and the Aleutian Islands contain much of what we might seek for a coastal survival location however.

Mobility: Coastal Indians built dugout canoes for transportation using the inlets, bays, sounds and channels as a natural highway. Explorers and traders navigated the same waterways on sailing vessels. My brother, while between schooling, spent many days kayak camping on the outside of Vancouver Island, a large island (12,079 square miles) in British Columbia. During these extended trips he carried an incredible amount of camping gear in his sea kayak including a full size axe, sleeping bag, dive gear (minus SCUBA), grill, large cook pot, fishing pole and tackle, tent and foodstuffs! His report, outer coast B.C.; saw few travelers, lots of drift available for consumable use (This should be considered a great advantage to anyone on “outside” waters. Lumber, buckets, jugs, floats, nets, rope and line, tires, shoes, wax and much more can be found at the high water mark) all of which could be very valuable should one be in a survival situation. Shellfish populations were prolific.

Not to be ignored are many other forms of travel, some of which would be of more value or maybe considered long term travel solutions versus some of which might just simply get you to where you wanted to go and then of necessity, so as not to give away a permanent position, be scuttled. Canoe, skiff (with oars or small outboard), sailboat, yacht, fishing boat you name it, all of these may be used to get to where you could set up a long term survival retreat. Other thoughts; coastal Indians in S.E. Alaska used the canoe for food gathering, many tribes were able to make long voyages for trading purposes and in one documented case, a vindictive canoe load of Kake Indians traveled the Inside Passage to exact a revenge on a customs official in Washington State…. consider that, a 1,700 nautical mile roundtrip!

Perhaps the best Coastal Survival setup has been prepared by friends of mine, a retired couple. They have a custom-built sailboat they live on full time. They have traveled the Inside Passage numerous times in this vessel. It is 45’ long with a 12’ 6” beam and draws 9’. This vessel is powered by a 236 cubic inch Perkins diesel, and it remarkably efficient with the hull design they chose. Just a note on diesel engines, naturally aspirated engines (versus turbo charged engines) turn at lower RPMs, tend to last longer between major maintenance, are quieter, and for slow hull speed boats very efficient. On this vessel they have adequate storage for the two of them, foodstuffs, medical, firearms, et cetera. In the event of TEOTWAWKI, this couple could simply slip their lines and sail into a quiet, secluded cove. With their local knowledge of waterways, weather, edible indigenous plants and simple fishing tackle they could survive indefinitely with no disturbance from marauding bands of parasites.

One more possibility for those living in or near any of the seaports along the Pacific Coast (including California) is to look into a Federal “Buy-Back” commercial fishing vessel. These vessels, many of them capable of long range trips to Alaskan fishing grounds and used as such, were decommissioned when the owners took advantage of a Federal Program designed to reduce commercial fishing pressure on certain stocks. Typically, these vessels can be reasonably purchased and with minimal changes be converted into an excellent live aboard vessel, complete with huge diesel fuel storage, freshwater storage (or even fresh water makers). One recent example of this, a 71’ steel hulled vessel sold here in S.E. Alaska for just over $100.000. The owner had converted it into a sport fishing vessel, I toured the vessel and found the engine room and all equipment to be in excellent running condition. State rooms and bunks were plentiful, the design was spacious and it was apparent that this would be a worthy idea for one perhaps trapped from traveling inland (Southern California comes to mind) instead why not have a vessel equipped and ready to “slip the lines” sailing away from trouble? To sum this section up; a vessel can be used for permanent transportation, or for just getting to where one wants to be and then using as a live aboard or as alluded to earlier if necessary, scuttled for security purposes.

Maritime Climate: Coastal areas typically receive larger rainfalls due to the clouds dropping their moisture as they stack up against coastal mountain ranges. Although the summer is wetter, the pay-off is in the winter months when the weather is much milder. Example; right now, as I am writing this the current weather in coastal Prince Rupert B.C. is 39 F. Terrace, just over the coastal range and only 90 miles away, is 32 F. Smither, again a little farther inland is 23 F. This usually holds true with all mountain ranges on the west coast, the western side is wetter, more moderate, while the eastern side is drier and has hotter summers but colder winters. One advantage to this is winter heating, less energy is required. Prevailing winds are onshore or Westerly, this allows for clean air, and in the event of nuclear fallout one would find him exempt from concern (discounting major river and stream pollution, for instance the Columbia River). From a tactical standpoint, if one is concerned about aerial surveillance, the British Columbia and S.E. Alaska coasts usually have heavy cloud cover, preventing or making aerial photography more difficult.

Food Sources As previously mentioned, coastal Indians in many cases were able to build permanent homes in specific locations because of available food supplies. Let’s consider another example. Both Brown Bear and Grizzly Bear are recognized to be the same specie, with the only difference being the Brown Bear lives on the coast and the Grizzly Bear lives inland. Compare the size between the two; Brown Bear can reach 1,500 lbs while interior Grizzly Bear, while still very large are usually less than half the body weight. This is due strictly to environmental situation. (For those who have experienced the nuances of both subspecies, Grizzly Bear are known to be less predictable and more likely to charge, lack of more plentiful food perhaps?)

To increase food availability on coastal waters, some type of a watercraft is necessary. With a boat, crab and shrimp pots can be set, “long lines” can be set for bottom fish, seals and other mammals could potentially be harvested. Without a boat however, the available food supply is still generous; migrating salmon in the rivers, many varieties of shellfish are there for the taking including mussels, clams, scallops, abalone, moon snells, all of which are a protein source whose gathering requires little energy.

Coastal areas are also known for prolific wild berry concentrations. Perhaps the very best berry growing on the coast is the salmonberry, which is high in Laetrile. Wild strawberry, blueberry, huckleberry, blackberry and many others can also be found.

Another valuable food source is seaweed, which arguably contains many minerals the body needs but also is great compost for coastal gardeners (we successfully grow each year cabbage, broccoli, brussell sprouts, lettuce, spinach, potatoes, beans and peas. What does not leave grow well, without a green house anyway, are tomatoes, corn or anything requiring extended warmth and lots of sun). Many flats along the ocean tidal beaches have fertile soil, excellent exposure to sun and along large river delta’s gardening plots abound. I would recommend anybody who has not already done so to purchase some Non-Hybrid Seeds from Survival Blog Advertiser Everlasting Seeds.

Wild vegetables, such as Goose Tongue and Wild Asparagus can supplement diet. Another recommendation is to purchase a book describing wild edible plants in the area you live.

Migrating waterfowl, seagull eggs, marine mammals, migrating smelt runs, venison, bear, elk, and moose are all other sources of food should one find himself in a survival situation on the coast. One final note on food sources, outdoorsman will learn certain areas that “hold” game, fish, edible plants and the like, as in contrast to some areas which will seem lifeless and barren. I am not referring simply to one species, but rather an area which just seems blessed with life, vs. an area which never seems to produce.

Fresh Water: I have lived on the coast all my life. To me, the thought of dying of thirst is hard to comprehend. What helped me understand the challenge of finding water in certain areas was a recent motorcycle trip with some family members down into the American South West, after miles of desert and no visible water such as a stream or lake, I can see why the concern. Here where we live, we receive approximately 13’ of precipitation a year, most of it in the form of rain. In addition to our rainfall, there are many spring fed streams, creeks, rivers and lakes. These can be found all up and down the coast. If you are unsure of your water source boil or treat it. If one is trapped on a small island with no freshwater, and has access to certain equipment, a solar still can be fabricated, or by boiling the water one can collect the steam and thereby separate the moisture from the salt, a tedious process, but possible to do if necessary.

Summary: My family and I enjoy driving and seeing other parts of the country, we have considered moving from the isolated area we live in to a sunnier part of the country. Our current situation prevents us from relocating. Frankly, I am tired of the rain, but in recent years I have come to accept I am where God has placed my family, and me and I will trust Him, and take advantage of the wonderful attributes he has instilled into this country should we be cut off from civilization. There are other disadvantages too; for instance our salt air humidity causes rapid corrosion, wounds don’t heal as fast as they could in a drier climate, and in essence we are cut off from barter or trade with those on the “outside”. However, if one wants to find a quiet spot to spend recovery time, with little interference from the outside world, in a land that is rich and plentiful there are plenty of spots along the Pacific Northwest and up into Alaska.

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Thursday November 12 2009

Letter Re: It Takes a Village for Perimeter Security

Jim:
I've been reading your blog for some months and went out and purchased "Patriots" as soon as I learned about it. Good job, I very much enjoyed it and will probably read again and again as I often do with books I enjoy.

After reading your ‘Precepts’, I thought I would drop you a note. because I have always appreciated anyone that agrees with me.

First, I am a retired cop and a retired soldier so I have studied people in one career and weapons and equipment in another. I have been to a number of Third World countries and learned that what we have now is unbelievably good and where we might be going is will be unbelievably, well, sad.

I decided a very long time ago that the best place to live for my family would be a rural town. I did not want kids to grow up in an urban setting and having grown up myself in a suburban setting, I didn’t want to inflict that on them either.

So we moved. It was a shock at first. The nearest fast food was almost twenty miles away in any direction and the nearest traffic light is seventeen miles away, even today, twenty-five years later.

The town I chose was twenty miles from the nearest Interstate and even a couple of miles from nearest state highway. It is in the center of one the largest agricultural areas in the country and has its own grain elevator and storage business.

That means at any time of the year, there are upwards of 5,000 tons of corn and soybean stored within the town limits. You know, "the perimeter".

I had often thought that if given the means, I would like to own a house on a hilltop with cleared fields of fire and a view of the surrounding area. But that wasn’t practical and as time has proven, it wasn’t even smart.

If you’re going to have a survival retreat, it would be best if you already lived there. If the necessity ever arose, I don’t think I would want to have to fight my way out of the city or suburbs.

In "Patriots", you describe a survival group that spent a great deal of time preparing for the “what if?” I did the same thing but I chose was to have all those skills that you searched for and recruited all ready present.

Farm communities already have a host of survival skills that are needed ready made. In our town, of less than a thousand, are welders (and equipment) fabricators (and their tools) food, fuel, military veterans, plenty of weapons and folks that have already spent a lot of times together dealing with blizzards, electrical storms, and power outages and all those things that bind a small community together.

We have some good people here and should the occasion arise, I think we could make a pretty good stand. Organization is key, of course. To that end, I have been active in the town in the past , my last police job before going back in the Army was Chief of Police here. I made a pretty good name for myself and I continue to help out in the town whenever I can.

Someone that I have absolutely no respect for once said, “it takes a village” and in this case, she was right. We are far away from the nearest urban areas, have food and water available and our folks every day work skills translate very quickly into survival skills.

I wanted to share the thought because I think most people who are planning to attempt to escape from the urban areas when the SHTF may be much better served if they would make that escape before it happens. My very best to you, - JCH

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Thursday November 5 2009

Letter Re: A West Texas Retreat Locale

I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers consider the land here in the desert of West Texas for rural remote retreats that are affordable and located away from the major city targets.

The desert acts as a sandy, hot, dry, moat around such retreats...and will attrite gangs of marauders roving out of the ruined cities. Land out here around

Balmorhea, Texas is cheap by your standards: $300 an acre average. The San Solomon spring brings in 26 million gallons of fresh water daily to the one mile square irrigation/fishing lake two miles east of Balmorhea. Balmorhea is about two miles south of Interstate 10, around mile marker 209.

There are about 20-30 farms on concrete viaducts that receive water from the lake for irrigation without pumping...and those can grow plenty of food to support those who live there and in the area. The population is only 700.

A natural gas pipeline supplies Balmorhea without compressors. There are over six new flowing gas wells on that line now so after the SHTF, Balmorhea and the area will still have unlimited gas service to power generators, heat homes, and so forth, even with the national power grid down permanently. It is an oasis in the desert of West Texas with lots of abandoned farm land in the area. Farmers have been driven out of business by the lift cost of water away from the irrigation lake. Madera Valley Water Supply has water lines running all over her supplying these abandoned farms, but their pumps are electric and will be down until we replace them with gas fired pumps or gas fired generators.

If your readers are not scared of good ol' boy redneck west Texans. They can get a good deal out here on survival retreat property. But, don't come expecting to have a high paying job. There aren't any!. In fact, Reeves county has an official unemployment figure of 14 percent, but is commonly acknowledged to be above 20 percent due to the oil and gas exploration downturn. Use ZIP code 79718 for Balmorhea if you want to do a Google Earth flyover and look at the landscape. The circles are center pivot sprinkler systems that irrigate entire sections of land, and most are out of action because no one can now afford the electricity to pump them.

My condolences on your loss of your wife, Jim. Keep up the good work with your SurvivalBlog. It is linked to my SurvivingTheDayAfter@yahoogroups.com group and considered a must read daily. Semper paratus. - R.L.

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Monday November 2 2009

Letter Re: Thoughts on Preparedness in a Diverse Community

I just met this past weekend with a group of " preparedness folk." They are on a farm about 30 miles from here. I have become interested in the subject after reading One Second After (a New York Times best seller, highly recommended!) and some writings by James Wesley, Rawles. I was surprised at who they were and the mindset I encountered. A few observations:

1) The root idea is that whether or not some disaster hits, we are far too dependent on a very fragile and tenuous energy and distribution grid. Raising your own chickens, goats, vegetables, rabbits, turkeys, pigs and cows is preferable (and more nutritious and tasty!) to standing around in a Kroger (think "post-Katrina") looking at the empty aisles.

2) They were "green" but green in a good way, and not the fashionable mindless silliness coming out of the "environmentally conscious" crowd. (Sorry if my contempt shows here)

I am talking about using a local stream to turn a box of old alternators from junked cars to produce current to charge batteries, building a steam fired boiler to run a generator, and lots of other cool ideas that are scavenged from junkyards...., including using a scrapped walk in cooler from a convenience store for a chicken coop (no insulation needed, and less heat source needed during cold weather).

3) The mark of an "advanced" society is division of labor, with the dependency on each other coming from specialization of labor being more efficient and less costly. However, we have evolved into a society of urban dwellers who produce nothing necessary for root survival needs. Cities are extremely dependent on everything being trucked in, and the ones who make the most money are the ones most efficient in distribution rather than production (think "Wal-Mart"). If that distribution system is disrupted, due to a failure of the electrical grid or a fuel supply disruption, we would be helpless. These folks recognize that.

4) I did not meet any tin foil hat folks, which surprised me. There were realtors, veterinarians, an auto parts distributor, a programmer, a cop, and a contract security guy (a "Blackwater" type, although he never worked for Xe). They were just normal folks living their lives, but concerned about the potential for future instability of a calamitous nature.

5) I was surprised at the political make-up of the group. I expected to see a bunch of rabid Republicans, fearful of antichrist Obama and the New World Order, blah, blah, blah. Rather, they were amazingly cynical of any politics, and were just as critical of Reagan (for different reasons) as Obama. Their attitude was more that of folks just trying to live their lives while being confident that their best shot at any change would come from being fiercely independent and doing what they could to remain so.

6) I was probably the biggest Bible Thumper out there. No religious zealotry at all. In my life, I have encountered a lot of religious whack jobs. I expected this crowd to be a magnet for them. It wasn't

7) I was also surprised about their attitude about guns. I expected to find a bunch of hyperventilating folks screaming out "Molon Labe!" as a password or something to enter the farm. Instead, I encountered a crowd of mostly ex-military guys who understood that guns are tools. They all hunt (mostly deer, but also squirrel, turkey, dove, and some varmints), and they all believe that they have a duty and a right to protect their families themselves and their freedoms and rights against all who would challenge them. Their attitude was that you would no more expect to defend rights and freedoms without guns than try to change a tire without a jack. Especially enlightening to me were the remarks of the contract security guy who worked security in Kosovo. Rather than sitting on his pile of weapons fervently wishing for social collapse so he could play "Rambo" or something, he just emphatically declared that if you ever lived in a society where the social order even partially breaks down, you will want to prepare for it here, but no one in his right mind would wish it.

7) The final funny observation is how close these guys are with all the ex-hippie counterculture who have moved south from Chapel Hill as the area has become completely yuppified. In fact, one of the guys there at the group was just a total stoner who had essentially moved down to smoke his own hydroponic, live cheaply, eat his own "organic" produce, and shoot, prepare, and jerk his own venison. The two types of "fringe" groups have a sort of affinity for each other, even if many other ideas are polarized apart.

The whole group of folks were not now living on the farm. There are only three families there. However, they are all affiliated with it and looking to it as a kind of resource/preparedness area in the event of:
1) a major earthquake (we sit on a huge fault line in North Carolina. I never knew that)
2) a failure of the oil distribution system
3) a major currency collapse (my bets are on this one as having the best odds)
4) a major terrorist attack on the US.
5) ..... you fill in the blank.

My wife and I are not moving down there (smile), but we are interested in some people whose ideas about simplicity and "back to nature" mirror what we would like to see ourselves. I think "survival" is an improper goal for a Christian. We are supposed to be "dead" already, having surrendered all this stuff anyway. I do think that "working with your hands so that you may have something to share with those in need" is a proper goal for myself, though. I am looking forward to interacting more with these folk.

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Thursday October 29 2009

Letter Re: A Canadian's Refreshing Travel Through the Western United States

JWR,

My son (17 years old) and I, along with my dad and sister who live in Washington State just completed a 4,700 mile road trip on motorcycles, traveling down through British Columbia. We met up with my relatives in Washington, then continued down into Oregon, cutting down to Northeastern California, over into Nevada, down into Utah then to the Four Corners and back up to Idaho cutting across to Western Washington and saying good bye to them before we continued back home. My point is, we saw a lot of empty land, met a lot of good people, saw some close friends who share same beliefs and expectations of what is to come; and we were greatly encouraged!

Sometimes living in an isolated community, you get to feeling stagnant, lethargic or complacent. Seeing the western US and those who live in the country was refreshing. And, it is a small world. We ran into people who knew people...

It was very good to see others and hear them firsthand relate their preparations for the future. I spent some time with one friend, and we spent the afternoon shooting one of his firearms, an FN-FAL. What a great experience! This was on his property his own range complete with 300, 400 and 500 yard gongs. (We shot at the 300, and found that the FN is a great MBR!)

In His Care, brothers always, - Ray

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Tuesday October 27 2009

Letter Re: A Geographically Isolated Retreat Locale: Republic, Washington

Jim –
First, may I join many, many others in extending my condolences for your recent loss along with my gratitude for your work with SurvivalBlog.

I have struggled with the thought of writing this or not for some time. I have finally decided that the potential positives outweigh the negatives.

This past year I bought some property outside of Republic, Washington, population about 900. The town is located about 170 miles Northwest of Spokane, Washington.. Republic is the county seat of Ferry County, the least populated county in Washington State and is classified as a “frontier” environment. Republic sits in a North-South mountain valley guarded on the East by the highest pass in Washington State and on the West by the second highest. Approach from the South is via a ferry across Lake Roosevelt and traversing the Colville Indian Reservation. To the North, the Canadian border is about 30 miles with a similar remote environment in Canada. The nearest towns of any consequence are about 45 miles to the West and 50 miles to the East. Tactically and strategically Republic is in a very attractive location and far from having limited resources, Republic has “everything you need and nothin’ you don’t.” The primary downside, as I see it, is that it is in Washington State where the political climate and many of the laws, including tax laws, run counter to the promotion of an ideal retreat location. Other than that, Republic offers everything I was looking for and the property is everything I wanted – and more! (God is amazing, not only providing what we need but occasionally surprising us with a little extra)

There is property available in and around Republic – some of it very attractive property with water, productive farmland, timber, wild game, and wonderful neighbors with a frontier, self-sufficient attitude – at attractive prices compared to other areas I investigated (Northwest Montana, Northern and Central Idaho, Eastern Washington). Herein came my problem. I am well aware of the cons associated with revealing the location of one’s retreat property. However, someone is going to buy the properties that are for sale, and become available in the future, and I would prefer my new future neighbors be of a similar mindset to myself regarding self-sufficiency and preparing for the future. Therefore I have decided to call a little attention to Republic, Washington as a potential retirement / retreat location for those considering a location in the Pacific Northwest.

Shalom, - The Gatekeeper

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Monday October 26 2009

Letter Re: Survival Notes from the Dominican Republic

Jim,

I've recently read several of your books and found them both interesting and educational. I would like to offer some personal insights based on my experiences from living in a small rural town one of the larger Caribbean islands. Most of my notes are cheap solutions used by people in developing nations all over the world. There may be better ways, but these work and cost next to nothing.

Water:

There is something especially disturbing about opening the faucet and hearing a sucking air sound. Not being able to shower, flush, or wash dishes is the worst.

One or more 55 gallon drums and 5 gallon plastic buckets are essential items to have. When you see that hurricane on the news, put the barrel it in the shower and fill it up right away. Add a few capfuls of bleach to make it keep longer. Expect the quality of water from the town water supply to drop. Rainwater collection should be set up right away. If possible the roof should fill a large cistern with a pressure pump. A gravity tank should be put on the roof.

Washing up from a bucket is easy enough. A small plastic cup and a five gallon bucket makes is easy. If the water is cold don’t try to heat up all the water. Bring a good sized cooking pot to a near boil and add it to the cold water. A person can wash easily in 2 gallons of water.

Pouring about two gallons of water rapidly into a toilet from a 5-gallon bucket will flush a toilet.

Washing dishes from a bucket without using gallons of water is tricky. It takes some practice to do it right. If you don’t stack your dirty plates and wash them right away, you only have one dirty side and no dried food.

It is very easy to contaminate your water supply. Dirty bucket bottoms and careless bathing are common causes, be vigilant.

Food:

Our community is an exporter of meat, milk, eggs, rice, vegetables and we have a 365-day growing season. Most families have a garden plot to supplement household food. Storing food is always wise but not nearly the problem it is in some other locations. Much of our farming is done with hand work.

Power:

We have daily blackouts here and most houses have invertors with battery backups. Since we have occasional power most people do not have generators but just charge when the lights are on. Most businesses have diesel generators.

A 2.5 KW inverter system with 4 deep cycle batteries will keep a few lights on, a laptop and a fan or two for about two days and costs about $2,000. The better systems run on 24 VDC. Here we are all very aware of vampire appliances [aka "phantom loads."]. All those VCRs, TVs, microwaves, wi-fi boxes, alarm systems, clocks, all pull a significant load. You need to learn your house circuits and unplug and turn off the breakers for things you don’t need. Low wattage bulbs are essential.

Running a generator for about 4 hours will charge most battery systems. Your generator will need to be at least twice the capacity of your inverter. Operating like this you can have basic lighting for the cost of about 2 or 3 gallons of gasoline a day. Running a refrigerator off a battery backup system is just not cost effective. Many people have put up both solar and wind systems as a way to produce some additional power to keep the batteries topped off.

A few simple solutions: Computer UPS systems usually operate on a 6 or 12 V battery. It is very easy to open one up and connect a large battery by running wires through the back of the case. This will give a much longer run time. While you have the case open, take a pair of pliers and crush the annoying power alarm beeper. The charger on these systems is very small and will take a very long time to reach a full charge. An off the shelf battery charger will speed things up. Alternativel,y your car can be used to charge the batteries (12 VDC only)

Guns:

While being armed is important, life is so much easier when there isn’t a conflict in the first place. Some people always seem to have problems wherever they go and need to pull out weapons while others seem to walk through the valley of death without a care in the world. Spend some time researching body language, and read books on interpersonal relationship skills. Besides improving your life right now, it could change a potential fatal firefight into a new friend.

Police:

When we have a crime wave, the police set up road blocks coming into and out of town. Rarely does this cause any real problems for honest people but you do need to have your paperwork for your car or firearms on hand. A smile and a friendly face makes things go much smoother. Acting aggressive or angry will get a messy and thorough search of your person, passengers and your car at a minimum. Knowing your local police makes a big difference. Sometimes we are asked to “help them out” which is code for a bribe. Either pay it with a smile, say sorry but you can’t today, plead poverty, or turn back. Fighting it just is not worth the trouble.

Crime:

Most traveling gangs are small and short lived. They rarely survive an encounter with police. It is very hard for a crime group to survive outside of their own neighborhood where they have local knowledge, a place to sleep and the support of family and friends. On the flip side the crimes committed by these people are usually the most brutal.

Local criminals gangs are much harder to control. Often these are well-connected individuals or gangs who are very good at remaining undetected. Some of them are drug smugglers, cattle thieves or burglars. Persons who are well liked and respected in the community are usually left alone. If you see large gangs forming, seriously consider leaving the country as it is a no-win situation.

Home Security:

This is a very safe country, but it is safe because people here do no depend on the police and protect themselves. With that in mind I have noted some of the more common security precautions here.

My experience here is that a house with lights on and occupied is the house that is left alone. Your best defense is to be the least interesting but hardened house in a occupied community. Vacant houses attract soft criminals and people who need a place to sleep. Most Dominicans always have someone home in the house. Night time home invasions are rare but they do happen. People who do this time of crime are extremely dangerous experienced and hardened criminals.

Isolated houses are at the worst risk for the most serious attacks. A gated community, walled yard, electric gate, bars on the windows, dogs, even armed security guards are all common place here. Country people live in small groups of three or more houses with the fields surrounding them.

Your most vulnerable time is being ambushed entering or leaving your home or car. When designing your landscaping, don’t build easy ambush points for attackers. This sort of thing doesn’t happen much in a small town.

Protests/Strikes/Riots:

Occasionally when the power or water is out too much, the citizens will organize a protest/strike/riot. Often the organizers are union leaders or other non-governmental community leaders. The usual format is to shut down the with road blocks and burning tires. Much of the bad behavior is more for show than reality but trying to pass the road blocks will result in getting your vehicle wrecked by the strikers. It is important to know why people are protesting and to be sympathetic to their cause (in many cases it is well justified). Their intention is to cause just enough of a disruption to get government the government to resolve the problem without getting arrested. Trying to pass the roadblock means that you are disagreeing with the reason they are striking. Know your local area for alternate routes and don’t try to travel during strikes.

Dogs:

Good dogs are essential. A pair of large dogs of a known breed are a very significant deterrent. Rottweiler, Doberman, German Sheppard, pit-bulls are recognized and avoided. Dogs differ widely in personality. Be sure yours matches your needs. Be aware and realistic of their shortcomings. I know too many people who depend entirely on a easily circumvented dog for security. Professional thieves routinely outmaneuver, poison, or shoot dogs.

Don’t overlook the value of small "yippy" and intelligent dogs like Chihuahuas. They are light sleepers, a second set of eyes and ears and are cheap to feed. They often work well with the bigger dogs.

Watch your dogs. If your dogs suddenly become sick, it may mean they were poisoned and you should expect a robbery that coming night or the following day. Look for your dog before you pull into your drive or get out of your car. If there has been an intrusion it may be hurt, nervous, missing or dead. This will often be your first indication of an awaiting problem.

Community

After a disaster (hurricane, flood, earthquake) the best thing for everyone is to keep the community together. Building a good reputation and personal relationships with neighbors and community leaders will make all the difference when resources are scarce and people are scared. The people who are capable leaders and community contributors often get first dibs on any help that does arrive and the right to make decisions on how goods are distributed.

Filling sandbags, organizing relief, passing out information, providing power, clearing roads, etc will make friends and build relationships that are not soon forgotten. This sort of thing can really bring a community back together in a hurry. We all depend on each other and leadership through positive action is a great way to rebuild. Just as looting is contagious, when people see others working together and helping, they are apt to join in. I have seen this numerous times here.

Transportation

Propane is subsidized here and is significantly cheaper than gasoline. Many people have adapted cars and trucks to run on both fuels using a special carburetor. As propane stores well this is a good emergency option for transportation, cooking, and power generation. Additionally propane machines can run on biogas and syngas.

While horses are very common here there would be a shortage if things really went bad. They did become proportionally more valuable as the price of fuel shot up.

I rarely see wood gasification mentioned as a alternative fuel supply. (See the Wikipedia page on wood gasification) This is an excellent modification that was used heavily in Europe in the 1940s. In my opinion, for most people this is the best solution to combustion engine power after a complete breakdown. Both alcohol and biodiesel require working farmland and refineries.

Post crash employment:

Anyone who can provide alternative sources of food, power, fuel or light will do well. A little Google work will show what technologies work on a small scale and provide business opportunities both now and after. Additionally, people here who can repair things never seem to make much money here but they always have work and food on the table.

Currency and hyperinflation:

After a major bank failure here, the currency here devalued by a factor of four in about two years. As the slide begins there are lots of opportunities to buy up things at old prices as many people price things based on what it cost them, not what the replacement value is.

As prices shot up, wages lagged way behind. Interest rates sky-rocked. Food prices shot up. Skilled labor prices went through the roof. The economy stopped dead because it becomes impossible to price things and nobody wants to work.

At the end of the slide the asking prices for everything got just crazy high, and the bid prices so low that almost no transactions took place except as acts of desperation.

Three years later, the currency has stabilized. Interest rates on loans are still slowly retreating. Merchants learned to price goods on replacement cost. Prices are often quoted in USD instead of local currency. Asking prices never really came down, but bid prices slowly rose up and as the spread reduces the economy starts to move again. Salaries are paid in local currency, but pegged to the USD for stability.

I wasn’t expecting to write such a long letter but maybe some of this will help people prepare and know what to expect. Sincerely, - S.H.

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Friday October 23 2009

Letter Re: North Dakota as a Retreat Locale

Hello Jim,
My deepest sympathy and prayers for you and your family after the recent passing of your wife. I have read for quite awhile of these folks that write with their questions and concerns for a survival retreat and where to locate and many have substantial resources to do so and yet many others (like myself ) didn't/don't have those resources. This is why I choose North Dakota which is notably in your top 18 states for retreat areas and I want to tell you why.

I have traveled extensively over the years to every state in the US and lived in several. I spent many years in the North Georgia mountains until it got to crowded like most areas there such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. Not to mention that they expensive as well.

I spent a summer in Alaska, and loved it there but that state as beautiful and less populated and with the bounty it offers, still lacks many staples needed and which as you have noted, has to be trucked,shipped or flown in and is very expensive.

Idaho, Montana,and Wyoming are beautiful and also less populated but through my travels over the years, I've found property far too expensive for the average working "Joe" with limited funds.

I could go on in reference to other states,but those I have listed were always what I thought to be a safe bet,but there came the money issue again.
I didn't want a loan or mortgage on a "survival retreat" that might possibly end up in foreclosure if and after TSHTF, so I kept looking.

And through those travels I started taking a closer look at North Dakota.Yes, I know there are over 150 Minuteman III ICBM tubes spread out over central and western North Dakota and that I agree was disturbing to me, but then I was right back at that Money issue. Always seems to come back to that. [JWR Adds: For maps of the missile fields of North Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana, and Colorado see the leftist Nukewatch web site. As described in my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation", you'll find safety in selecting a retreat that is at least 50 miles upwind of the western-most of these regions.

So, what I did was to buy a very small home in a very small rural area of north central North Dakota, kinda up wind of the "sites" for the most part yet very, very affordable.
I bought this place to "try out" North Dakota and see if it offered what my bank account could stand.
Could I live here for limited funds and use the balance to "stock up" for the future?
Could I pay cash for the place so I would never have to worry about loosing it if and when TSHTF and money would become scarce,if there even was any money anywhere?.
Could this piece of property sustain me and my wife in the interim through a garden,chickens etc?.
And was there a possibility of making an income in the area or a population source near enough to get to that I could?.

What I found was nearly an acre with a small well kept home on the edge of a very,very small town for just $11,000 with all the amenities of the big city like Internet, cable, satellite television, water, sewer, garbage, phone and electric and my very own cistern for a backup. And my annual property taxes are less than most people spend for a night out-- under $75 per year.

That small place was a great starting place and allowed us to venture and learn about North Dakota and all it offers.
I will add as well that North Dakota is a major Beef producing state and I have never had trouble finding hamburger for far less than grocery store prices and farm raised,not to mention unlimited hunting and fishing.

What few realize is that most of North Dakotas small rural towns are experiencing a decline at about 10% over the past 10 years due to the older folks passing on and the younger ones moving on and the small farms giving way to huge 3,000 to 5,000 acre spreads and the cold winters all add up to smaller towns.

But we found it perfect and the cold is usually the worst the end of January through the first two weeks of February and then it gets down right cold-d-d. The beautiful spring,summer and fall make up for it though, in our opinion.

But we still wanted to be a little farther out,a little more "upwind" and a little more acreage and fewer people.
After nearly two years we found a seven-acre farmstead. It is far enough from Minot and Grand Forks and northerly enough to give us a very fair survival rate [in the event of a nuclear exchange].

This place has a nice home with basement walls from stone that are 24 inches think.Two garages and a granary make up the buildings.
With this prized piece we can grow more food,have more chickens and raise some beef and pork.
Our closest neighbor is 1-1/2 miles away and the closest larger town is 28 miles with smaller towns in the 17 to 18 mile range.
We did lose a few things by moving here: No unlimited long distance, no cable television (only satellite) and we had to get a new cellular provider. No town water or sewer. We have our own here with a well and septic and we lost our garbage pickup so we burn and recycle and/or haul to the landfill.

We can see anyone coming a mile before they get here yet we are still on a main road for winter snow plows.
And all of this was under $20K, that's right, under $20,000 so that was again, well within our means to pay for and use that money we would have spent on a mortgage or loan to invest in our future,so it is possible and we are living proof of this and we have seen many deals such as this in North Dakota.

So we offer that North Dakota is a beautiful place and affordable for those that (like us) don't have unlimited funds,or don't want to spend all they do have for a survival retreat. A place that is peaceful ,quiet and far enough from everyone, yet close enough for a day trip to any big city and still only has 650,000 people in the entire state.
A state where there is presently a budget surplus and the lowest unemployment rate in the USA.

We thought our own experience here might interest you and your readers Jim.
Thanks for your great job with SurvivalBlog and your time and have a wonderful week. - Fred

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Wednesday October 21 2009

Letter Re: Should I Rent, or Should I Buy Property?

Sir;
I have a question that I think would be of interest to a lot of your Blog readers:

"How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It". I really enjoyed the book. It helped coalesce all of the concepts I learned in "Patriots", [the now out-of-print] SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog Volume 1, and "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation".

One of your central precepts is that one should move to a "lightly populated rural area." Okay. With some work, I can find and buy a suitable piece of property and/or house. But you repeatedly point out that the real estate recession is going to get much worse and that real estate prices are going to plummet. Presumably, land prices are also headed far South.

In the interest of getting prepared as quickly as possible, I am interested in finding a viable retreat with a home already constructed on the property.

So, if it's a horrible time to buy real estate, should someone now making the move find a suitable rental property in the hinterboonies? Given the logistics of being a prepper (with literally thousands of pounds of Beans, Bullets and Band-Aids), is renting feasible?

While looking at properties, I have noticed that quite a few sellers are still hanging on to their ideas about their houses' value based on 2006/2007 prices. There are, however, dozens of properties that are for rent at prices way below market rents because of their remoteness and lack of appeal to the typical suburban sheeple (the very attributes which make the property ideal for me).

It doesn't make any sense to me to spend a significant chunk of money on a retreat and then watch as its value sinks over the next 5-10 years.

Should I sign a long term lease (two years or more) of a suitable retreat? And purchase a large sturdy trailer for each of my vehicles and be prepared to move from one rental location to another if required?

Your thoughts/opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks for all that you do to educate and prepare the rest of us.- M.M.

JWR Replies: We are definitely in a renter's market. I recommend buying only if the seller will accept a deeply-discounted offer.

I must mention a third approach that I recommend to my consulting clients for times like these, with declining house and land prices and an uncertainty of a turn-around within 10 years: Find a place that you really would like to buy as a retreat, and lease it, with a contracted option to buy. (A "purchase option" contract, commonly called "buying an option.".) That way, if the market tanks, you can walk away, and you will be just out the lease money. Alternatively, you could re-negotiate a purchase price. And if the market stays steady in rural areas (a possibility) or if you are still occupying the property when double digit inflation kicks in, then you can go ahead and exercise the purchase option, with all of the the lease money paid applied to the purchase price.

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Tuesday October 20 2009

Letter Re: Preparedness for Families that Move Frequently

Mr. Rawles,
Just finished reading your book "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It. I finished it in one long sitting, and have plans to go over it again with highlighter and pen and paper to take more detailed notes. Great work!

As a member of the Armed Forces, I face a difficult dilemma in that I understand and can clearly see the need to prepare/plan ahead, but my family and I feel hamstrung by our relatively transient lifestyle. I've been in the service for just over four years, and in that time I have been relocated every 18-24 months. This makes it extremely difficult to build up a deep larder and establish a self-sufficient infrastructure and a live-in homestead. How do we work around this?

We have a few things going in our favor:
- We are debt-free, with about $60,000 squirreled away in a Certificate of Deposit (CD) that will mature next year; we intend on using that to purchase a piece of fertile land in a quiet corner out west, and are working with some like-minded family members to pool our resources for collaboration and (hopefully) get a better deal. One thing we have discussed is that there are some very good deals on land in Canada - would could by twice or three times the amount of property than we could buy stateside with the same amount of money. In your experience, do you see any advantages/disadvantages in buying in the US or Canada?
- After all the bills are paid, we have enough left over to put about $1,000 away in long-term savings and another $500 left for preparedness purchases. I have a running list of prioritized items (firearms/ammunition, long-term food/water storage equipment, etc.), and as the money comes in I purchase them.
- We are currently renting a small farm property (seven acres) in New England near my duty station. While here, we are taking the time to use it as a practice ground for growing a vegetable garden and small-scale haying for livestock. This will give us valuable experience once we do have a piece of land to call our own. We are coordinating with several friends to learn canning, cheese making, and small scale home brewing to improve our self-reliance.
- We do have two horses, mostly for pleasure riding; I intend on trading out at least one for a larger Draft cross - much more practical for farming/homesteading. My landlord also agreed to let us keep some poultry, so I will use the winter to build a coop for some chickens.
- Deer are abundant in our area, and several wander through our backyard on a regular basis. I'm going to pick up a deep chest freezer this week, and hope to put one or two deer in the freezer this fall/winter.

In summary, my two questions are then:
1) Canadian versus US land?
2) How to build a deep larder in a nomadic lifestyle?

Thanks for everything, and keep up the great work! - MPJ

JWR Replies: Yes, your situation is a challenge, but you are not alone. The good news for you is that the weight allowances for military PCS moves go up, as you gain rank.

Given an option, I generally don't encourage retreats in Canada because of their more stringent gun control laws. It is fine if you already live there, and have structured a firearms battery that takes full advantage of some loopholes. For example, buying M1 Garand rifles. (The only semi-auto that is an exception to the absurd 5 round rifle magazine capacity limit.) But to voluntarily move from a country that has fairly favorable gun laws to one that does not, just doesn't make sense to me.

For folks that move often, I generally recommend building up two stockpiles of food: A larger one with very long shelf life food s(such as hard red winter wheat and Mountain House(or similar) canned freeze dried foods) that is kept your intended retreat, and a smaller one with shorter shelf life foods that you will keep with you, as you move from place to place.

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Monday October 19 2009

Twenty-Two Reasons Why this Recession is Different and Why it Will Endure

I find it surprising that I'm now getting inquiries from readers, asking if "we've reached bottom" in the current economic recession, and asking if the time has come to start buying stocks or residential real estate. It seems that the talking heads of mainstream media are using some sort of voodoo. How can anyone think that we've hit bottom, and an economic recovery is in progress? To dispel the myths from the CNBC Cheering Section, please consider the following. (And note that I've provided references for each assertion, just so you know that I'm not talking out of my camouflage hat.):

  1. A broken global credit market that has not fully recovered. See: After Lehman, U.S. firms adjust to new face of credit
  2. Lack of transparency in Mortgage-Backed Securities and other re-packaged debt instruments. See: Geithner Blames Lack of Transparency for OTC Derivatives Hit on Market.
  3. The increasing Federal debt, which is growing at an unprecedented rate. See: The National Debt Clock.
  4. Mountains of consumer and corporate debt. See: Observations on the US Debt.
  5. The Federal budget deficit. See: Federal Deficit Hits All-Time High of $1.42 Trillion.
  6. Ever-expanding bailouts. (I call this The MOAB.) See: As More Companies Seek Aid, 'Where Do You Stop?'
  7. Monetization of the National Debt. See: Fed Could Expand MBS Purchases. (Can you spell Oroborus?):
  8. The destruction of the American consumer economy. (It had been artificially credit-driven). See: A Year After The Crisis, The Consumer Economy Is Dead.
  9. Chronic unemployment, possibly much higher than officially reported. See: Alternate Data at ShadowStats.
  10. More than $500 Billion USD in hedge funds that have borrowed short and lent long. See: Assets invested in hedge funds increase by $100bn
  11. A double wave of residential mortgage rate resets. See: this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets.
  12. Continued down-ratcheting of house prices. See: Housing Prices Will Continue to Fall, Especially in California
  13. The under-reported "shadow inventory" of foreclosed houses. See: The "Shadow" Foreclosure Inventory
  14. The very likely collapse of commercial real estate ("the other shoe to drop".) See: Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
  15. A huge crisis lurking in over-the-counter derivatives. See my analysis published in 2006 and the dozens of articles on the Derivative Dribble Blog.
  16. Under-funded pensions. See: Almost half of top unions have under funded pension plans.
  17. A coming wave of municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures. See: The Failure of Leveraged Municipal Bond Hedge Funds.
  18. Increasing numbers of bank failures. See: FDIC: Bank Failures to Cost Around $100 Billion.
  19. Insurance company collapses--some, like AIG, were foolish enough to insure more than a trillion dollars in derivative contracts. See: AIG: Is the Risk Systemic?
  20. Worsening state, county, and city budget crises. See: State prepares for shutdown as budget deadline looms, and this article from a liberal site: Predicting Worse Ahead from America's Economic Crisis.
  21. Loss of faith in the US Dollar, on the FOREX. See: Dollar's reserve currency status in focus as G-7 finance ministers meet.
  22. The coming mass currency inflation, following some asset deflation. See: Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?

Back in the Fall of 2008, I started hearing from consulting clients with notes of fear in their voices. They realized that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they could not properly isolate and articulate the problem. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that they sensed is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate.

America will continue in recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But the recession that began in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone.

The Federal governments's debt, just by itself is cause for concern. As an old gunsmithing friend mine, the late Chuck Brumley, was fond of saying: “If your outgo exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall." Several decades of profligate spending by the US Congress are finally starting to take their toll. Just because their friend Helicopter Ben has a high-speed printing press does mean that they can continue to spend money like drunken sailors in definitely. (On second thought, I should apologize for impugning the reputation of drunken sailors. They are actually much more conservative with their funds than congressmen.)

Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures.

Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.)

The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse.

"Big Picture" Implications

As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend long, and effectively use debt compounded upon debt.

Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDSes). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so most derivatives contract holders are only just now experiencing their first major recession. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not yet experienced a full scale "blow up" of derivatives, but I predict that if and when it happens, it will be spectacular. The pinch in CDSes (a form of derivative contract) in 2008 was just a faint foreshadowing of what we'd experience in a a full-blown derivatives collapse.

The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on the street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse in the summer of 2008, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama.

The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even governments will go under as this tumult plays out. (Take note of the recent vote of no confidence in Latvia.) The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late 1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will inevitably result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.)

Mitigating the Risks

Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends and /or relatives that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.)

Since additional large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business.

In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life.

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Friday October 9 2009

Where You Live Matters: How to Assess Your Location and Develop Scenarios, by Brendan S.

A little foreknowledge will prevent you from becoming a victim. Most people don’t think about what they will actually do in the case of an emergency. One just has to see what happened after Hurricane Katrina to see how ill-informed the masses are. They simply expect the government to take care of everything. They meander like zombies to some location and wait to be fed and cleaned up after. Not me! I know what I’m going to do when any disaster strikes.

In this article I want to share with you my thoughts on how to:

•Assess the situation and your location.

•Assess your job location and commute.

•Assess any variables to your survival plans.

When disaster strikes where will you be? How well do you know the place where you live, work, or the space in between? Chances are that when a disaster occurs you will be either at home or at work or commuting in between. You may be ready to deal with things at home on a sunny afternoon, but what if you’re on the road in a downpour?

The main occupation of think tanks is to devise scenarios of whatever their specialty is; oil, food, military or political events. The same tactics can be done on an individual scale to find out what your reactions might be to disasters or events. You can plan out your reactions to events by knowing what your assets are at the time and how to be ready for any variables. Planning is simply about not being surprised. “When I am in situation 1, I will do X. When I am in situation 2 I will do Y.” Simple yet effective.

ASSESS THE SITUATION

A scenario doesn’t need to be the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI). Natural disasters are just as important and deadly. Not just in the initial disaster but also in the aftermath. Actually more people usually die after a disaster.

Living here in Northern California, earthquakes are an ever present fear and so ill prepared by people and neglected by the elected officials, city planners and developers. People’s houses might be able to take a moderate earthquake with little damage, but what about the roads, highways and overpasses? Chances are fire will spread unabated killing more people than the initial damage. Or, with the cops busy, looters will think it’s open season on home shopping.

So where does your house stand in the general theme of threats?

TASK #1: List the dangers that might affect your area.

Living where you do, you should already have some experience with some disaster inducing events. The United States has a very large variation in weather and its effects can be devastating. Floods near rivers, hurricanes near the coasts, blizzards up north, heat waves almost anywhere, earthquakes out west… the list goes on. You have probably dealt with something already.

Growing up in the Midwest we were always in danger of tornados cutting a swath through our neighborhood. Then in winter we had to worry about blizzards. But the situation doesn’t have to be devastating. What if a thunderstorm simply cut the power for several days? What if the basement floods? What if there’s an escape from a prison?

Could the effects be temporary or long lasting? Is it just power lines down or a blackout covering several states? Do striking rail workers mean food shortages? Is the riot from a basketball game or did Oakland finally collapse into chaos?

ASSESS YOUR LOCATION

TASK#2: Know your city.

As a pilot I know a lot about terrain. All day long I see the land rolling underneath me. Here in Northern California, from the air, I can easily see how land is managed and how cities and towns are developed. I see how many roads go in and out of town centers, suburbs, business parks and so on.

The place I live in is a small town in a valley with only a few roads leading in and out. If there was an earthquake along the Hayward fault line like the “big one” that is due to happen here any time now, and most of Oakland, Berkeley, San Francisco were apocalyptic hellscapes, the bridges might be knocked out and it would hopefully prevent refugees from setting up camp in our open land. We have a route to safety toward Sacramento if needed. And we have arable land that can be turned into farms quickly.

How dense is the population where you live?

Do you live in a dense populated city? A suburb? In the center or on the edge, close to farmland? If there was a disaster, where would most of those people head? You don’t need to fly over your area to assess it, Google Earth will do just fine. Take a good look at the main avenues of traffic and housing. Where is the most dense? Where do you not want to be? Where does the suburbs taper off finally into farmland? If Hurricane Katrina is any indication, people will congregate in a large open space like a stadium, park, school or the like. If you were a FEMA organizer, where would you tell people to go?

Where are the nearest hospitals?

When something happens these are most likely going to be the first place that people head for. There is medical attention, food, warmth and light. If you are uninjured, do you really need to go there? Would it be more dangerous? When the hospital gets overloaded after a disaster and turns into a triage; giving attention to the worst cases first, do you think that panicked people are going to simply wait calmly in the waiting room? Or will they start fights, demand attention maybe at gunpoint? Better to avoid it at all costs. (Or be the very first to show up through the emergency room doors!)

Is your home prepared?

Most time spent by people like us is in preparing our home for disaster, so this is well covered elsewhere and too vast to talk about here. But don’t just look at the stuff you have in your house. The wall of freeze-dried food will get you through the initial catastrophe, but then what? How adaptable is your house? Do you have a yard that can be turned into a garden with a little work? Where can you get more water? Are you near a stream or lake?

Is your neighborhood safe and secure?

You don’t have to live in a gated community to be safe, but how far off the main roads is your house or apartment? Would big city gang-bangers find it accessible and tempting? This fear goes up as the powered lights go out at night and all you can see is darkness out of your front door. Even temporary power outages cause hoodlums to go outside and behave like jackasses.

How well do you know your neighbors?

What would your kids do if you were stuck at work and they were home from school? Do they know your plan of action? Which neighbors could they trust? Which neighbors might want to come together but really are there to deplete your stockpile at twice the rate?

ASSESS YOUR WORK AND COMMUTE

TASK #3: Know your place of work.

If you are stuck at work how long could you last there? You could always sleep at your desk overnight but what about food? Do you think your boss would be ready or willing to provide for you and the other employees? Probably not. It would probably turn into surviving out of your car, especially if your place of work is damaged.

What would you do if stuck on the highway?

The cars are stopped because of an earthquake, flood, jack-knifed chemical truck, etc. Could you pull off and hike on foot? Which way?

When I lived in Tokyo we had to have a plan ready for commuting by train and an earthquake happened. I carried a small street map book so I could walk back to my home when the roads and train lines were disrupted. (Even harder for a foreigner.) The Japanese are far better equipped for disasters from typhoons to earthquakes because of simple occurrence. They know it is just inevitable that something is going to happen. There they can trust their government and employers to help though.

Where are your loved ones and do they know what to do?

Does your spouse know what you might do? Don’t expect your cell phones to be working. I have an agreement with my wife not to come looking for me. I will either go to work or home and she will do the same.

ASSESS THE VARIABLES

TASK #4: Game out some variables.

Once you have a plan of action and know what you want to do, you have to be ready for any changes. The emergency situation probably won’t stay static, but either gets better with quick action from authorities or more likely get worse through inaction and incompetence from them.

If rising flood waters block the road that lies between you and your loved ones, do you know the alternate routes? Where is the higher terrain versus lower? Once you know what you want to do, head straight home for example, what variable might change that course of action? Snow too deep. Flooded bridge. Tremors sending rocks to the road below. Pinhead cop telling you the road is closed.

Are you ready for the extremes?

Are you ready to spend the night in your car? Or several nights? You can find lists of things to have to make your car into a temporary shelter, but the main thing is not to be surprised and get taken by panic. Simply be ready to tough it out for a while until the situation is to your advantage. If you plan to stay at work, how long until you want to head home?

In conclusion, being prepared for emergencies is not just about sitting on top of your stockpile of food with an AR-15 and waiting. You have to know the game plan and how to implement it and expect it to change. As a pilot, I am always ready for an emergency situation by being mentally prepared for it and never panicking when it doesn’t go the way I’ve practiced. You can do the same for any situation.

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Thursday October 8 2009

Letter Re: Getting Self-Sufficient in Wyoming

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I was recently given your novel "Patriots" by a like-minded friend in Wyoming. I read it once for pleasure, then twice with a highlighter, notepad, and Google. It's a wonderful resource, and I'm looking forward to the new book ["How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It"]. Reading "Patriots" left me proud to be an American, and revitalized something I felt I had been losing in the recent years. This is a wonderful country, and I have faith that there are still a bunch of decent God-fearing people who will stand up for her when needed.

I was 20 when I moved here from Baltimore, to run a cattle ranch that my father had the foresight to buy in the late 1980s. It became the working family "retreat" where I lived full time, and my parents lived half-time. I am forever indebted to Dad for my life. He was my best friend in more ways than can be counted. He passed at age 68 in late 2007, of a digestive cancer. I will always wish I had more time with him on earth.

Life in Wyoming has been wonderful for me, as I developed good self-sufficiency skills and eventually (starting 1995) built a passive and active solar/wind charged earth-bermed home. I remember back in 1984, when Dad (in the computers/operations research field) bought our first PC - an XT with dual 5.25" floppies and 128K of RAM. The first thing I did as a teenager was make my lists of things I'd need to go survive in the woods! I have no idea where those thoughts came from - it was absolutely natural. I'm currently forty, and pretty shocked by current events and economics.

What are we doing? Is hyperinflation around the corner? There are two things my dad taught me long ago, that I always use to analyze everything...

1) Nothing is free.
2) If you have to lie to accomplish your goals, maybe you'd rather reevaluate your goals!

Now I'm building marine-grade expedition campers that can operate far from civilization, and restoring old mechanical diesels in my spare time. Next spring and summer my projects will be a good root cellar, a rebuild of my wind charger, and a new small barn for our goats and chickens.

Thank you for the inspiration. I hope one day to shake your hand. God Bless, - Darrin in Wyoming

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Monday October 5 2009

Letter Re: Where to Start in Survival Preparedness?

Mr. Rawles,
My family and I are facing some challenges in our pursuit to become prepared. First off, a little background on our situation. I'm a 12-year Air Force veteran currently stationed in Montana. My wife also works full-time. We have about $60,000 in debt between credit cards and two auto loans. We have no problems paying our bills and our credit is excellent. It's just that we don't have a ton of extra money to begin our grand survival scheme. We've talked about all the different routes about living debt free and also purchasing the right vehicles, retreat and equipment that we feel we would need.

Option #1 - The Air Force pays large bonuses for certain career fields if you reenlist into that career field. I'm interested in one that will pay me a minimum $50,000 ($25.000 on signing, the rest spread out over the length of my reenlistment.) We talked about paying off one auto loan and our credit cards with the up-front $25,000. This would free up about $500/month which we would probably put towards our bigger auto loan. Since the first auto loan would be paid off, we can then sell that car and buy a less expensive '73-'86 Chevy/GMC Blazer or Suburban (gas). That would take care of survival vehicle #1. The other $25,000 over the following years would be used to pay down our other vehicle to where we can pay off or even break even so we can purchase survival vehicle #2---1994-1997 Dodge Ram 2500 4x4 5.9L Cummins diesel. If we go for this option, most if not all of our debt will be gone and we'll have about $1,000/month to spend on fortifying our equipment, supplies et cetera. The problem with this option is we won't be too prepared if something were to happen in the next 4-to-5 years or so.

Option #2 - Let's assume that I still have the same bonus as listed above. I retire in eight years and would like to have a little piece of land to go to--TEOTWAWKI or not. We plan on 10+ acres somewhere in north central Idaho (Orofino/Pierce/Deary--that area). Well, I could take the $25,000 up front bonus and put it down on a piece of land. We don't plan on spending over $80,000, so we can figure on a payment of around $300-$600/month. Then, when I retire, I'll move the family up there and build a house with a mini-farm. Of course, if I went this route I would still have a lot of debt.

Option #3 - Perhaps I should plan for more immediate needs. My family has little of the proper equipment/supplies that we would need. Shoot, we don't even have a Bug-Out Bag.. I've considered using that bonus money (or a portion) to build up in the equipment area and forego paying any additional to debt (after all, if TEOTWAWKI happens in the near future, debt will be the least of our problems).

So, this is the dilemma that I am faced with. I know my end goal a (self sustaining mini-farm in Idaho, while still receiving a pension and being debt free). Getting there is the hard part. The costs of my current debt, state of provisions, buying land, building on the land, vehicles, alternative power for the retreat will probably cost anywhere from $200,000-$500,000 when it's all said and done. I think the smart choice is putting as much money as possible towards debt and getting that out of the way, but at the same time making small provisions for WTSHTF. Perhaps I've missed something? - Dan W.

JWR Replies: For anyone that might be laid off, debt can be a real killer in the next few years. I still predict a at least another 18 months of deflation to be followed by sharp inflation. In deflationary times, having any debt load would be disastrous if income were interrupted due to a layoff. Granted, military service is a unique situation, but my general advice is to pay down debts, and avoid taking on any new debt. The situation in the immediate future will resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s, where cash was king, and the few people that had jobs fared well, but those that were unemployed suffered badly. So my advice is to take Option #1: Pay off one auto loan and your credit cards with the $25,000 re-up bonus. Not only will it remove the stress of potential loss of income, but it will eliminate interest payments, which are a non-productive drain on your resources. Then make your preparations gradually, using your expendable income, without incurring any new debt. If need be, downgrade one of your vehicles to an older model that won't require a car loan. That will free up even more cash each month.

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Monday September 28 2009

Five Preparedness Lessons Learned, by Allen C.

I was speaking with a friend recently who mentioned he still has a generator in the box taking up space in his garage.  It has been there for ten years.  He did not know what to do during the Y2K panic so he spent money to make himself feel better.  I am not knocking the value of a good generator.  I have used mine for almost twenty years.  However, purchasing a generator he did not know how to use without at least buying some gasoline to go with it was a waste of money.  It has been said the humans are the only creature that move faster once they realize they are lost.  I am sharing my experiences for the benefit of those who do not have a lot of training or experience in preparedness that they may go just slow enough to make good decisions while moving fast enough to be effective.

I was first referred to as “a survivalist” twenty-five years ago by local authorities during a routine traffic stop.  Still a teenager, I had saved my Christmas money to purchase my first rifle, an AR-7 survival rifle.  I had to explain to the nice officers why it was broken down in the back seat of my father's car.  I dressed like the cover of a survival magazine during my high school and early college years and my appearance had brought me the attention I thought I wanted.  This teenage self-expression included camouflage pants and a black T-shirt accented by a defused hand grenade hanging from a chain around my neck.  I quickly learned the attention this drew was not in my best interest.  Today I look like every other clueless rat in the race.

It is not just the blatant activity described above that draws unwanted attention.  Someone asked recently how to keep their nosey neighbors from watching them bring in supplies.  I advised her to buy several identical plastic tubs.  Each time she goes out, an empty tub will go with her and return full.  The world sees just one tub going back and forth and incorrectly assumes it is the same one each time.  Absent evidence to the contrary, people tend to see what they expect.

Lesson One: Lay low and don't make the big mistake.  Appear to be someone not worth noticing.

Throughout the years I grew in my training and expertise.  I became a firefighter and HazMat technician, shooting sports and wilderness survival instructor.  The same skills for which I was previously viewed as a threat now brought me acceptance and admiration.  After 911 they honored me at events and put me in parades.  My key to success was preparation in both skills and provision.  The most expensive piece of equipment in the hands of someone who does not know how to use it is worthless.   The converse is also true.  The more skilled one becomes, the less likely they are to think they need the latest gadget.  Over the years the tools in my fire gear and my survival kit became more refined allowing me to do more with less.

For example, knowing several ways to purify water without spending several hundred dollars on a filter system allowed me to allocate first funds to food storage and firearms.  If tribulation should come before I am fully prepared (if that is possible), I can provide food, water, and protection for my family.  I would love to have a bigger filter system, but because of my knowledge level, I am able to better prioritize.

Lesson Two: Knowledge makes a little provision go a long way. 

The other day I went to visit a friend from high school that I had not seen in years.  He proudly showed me not only his gun collection but those of a mutual acquaintance who keeps his at his home.  Some were sitting in a wooden gun cabinet with a glass front.  Most were lying in gun racks mounted to walls in the spare bedroom.

In my home you will not see one gun or a large cabinet that would be a bullseye for any thief who might kick in the door.  Those are kept safely in a secure and innocent-looking location that would not get a second look.  An inexpensive assemble-it-yourself bookcase with a few inches cut off the back of most shelves makes an excellent cache.  Trim the back panel to fit within the frame of the bookcase and use a hook and eye lock to secure the top of the bookcase to the wall.  This hidden cache holds several guns locked to the unit and the wall with a cable lock through the trigger guards. 

Lesson Three: The best defense is to not become a target in the first place.

Many of my friends are buying and storing a year's supply of freeze dried food as they did for Y2K.  I am not doing so now nor did I in the Fall of 1999.  I personally do not enjoy eating freeze dried food.  Perhaps it is because I was raised in Amish country, but I have always stored and rotated my food.  This is not to say that I never buy food for long-term storage, but that I am selective in buying those things which I can get locally, inexpensively, and actually want to eat.  The rest I rotate through my pantry. 

The other day a friend of mine sent me a link to a web site where I could purchase fifty pound bags of grain for three times what it sells for locally.  It has not been specially prepared for long-term storage nor is it significantly different in quality.  In the Bible, Joseph stored grain for seven years without packing it in nitrogen.  This grain is marketed as a preparedness product at a price that covers shipping and a higher profit margin.  To most efficiently allocate my funds, I segment provisions into three categories:

  1. Bulk items I can buy locally and inexpensively that can be stored for the long term
  2. Items I usually eat that can be stored in a pantry and rotated through over several months
  3. Things that must be purchased from preparedness providers because they are the only source

Using this method, I can provide variety and nutrition for my family for less than the average family spends going on one vacation. 

Lesson Four: We don't have to spend thousands of dollars on food we don't really want to eat.

Rule number one of wilderness survival is Don't Panic! This warning is equally relevant in any survival situation.  While time is of the essence, I would not recommend anyone without experience  quit their job in the city and move directly to a secluded retreat.  I have talked to several people who just this year planted their first garden.  The quantity of errors and problems they experienced are too many to include here.  Although I am from the country, I married a city girl and currently live on a postage stamp in a small city.  This permits us to continue to earn money and improve our country retreat until the last possible minute while visiting on the weekend.   

I have found the best way to buy and own retreat property is through a housing cooperative or land trust.  Although seldom used for rural land, cooperatives have successfully owned and occupied housing in New York City since the 1800s.  Instead of an individual purchasing a few acres at a premium price because each parcel must be surveyed, title examined, deeded, etc, a cooperative is a group of people who together purchase a large tract of land by forming a nonprofit corporation.  The property is deeded to the corporation with the rights to occupy individual parcels guaranteed through an occupancy agreement.  Advantages of a housing coop include lower price per acre, anonymity of ownership, and protection for creditors. 

Lesson Five: Don't Panic – One small preparation every day will produce the best long-term results.  

Whether surviving a wilderness emergency or social unrest, our attitude and ability have a lot more to do with our success than the products we purchase.  We do not have to drastically change our way of life until circumstances change it for us.  These small things done over time will produce great results.  While there are necessities to secure, the most valuable asset we have is ourselves.  An investment in us pays the highest return.

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Tuesday September 22 2009

Letter Re: Grub and Gear--Lessons Learned from an Alaskan Trapper

James,
Going through some old gear last month, I found my food supply lists and notes from 1976-79. I thought the old list might be of interest and the lessons I learned during the first three years in the remote Alaska bush may be helpful to a few of your readers. I do not recommend Alaska for a TEOTWAWKI retreat but the lessons I learned the hard way may be helpful to any one in a cold climate.

I grew up in California listing to stories from my grandfather about Alaska and the Yukon. When I graduated from high school my grandfather gave me his remote trapping cabin in Alaska. At 18 I had a lot to learn and discovered many things the hard way. I was lucky to survive the first year.

When I got to Alaska I met my Grandfather’s old trapping partner. He told me that the cabin was fully stocked with everything including food. Enough food and supplies for at least one winter. When I started asking him questions on how to trap he told me “sonny I have not got the time to teach you and since you don’t have to build the cabin you will have time to figure it out. He added half under his breath” providing you do not fall through the ice or freeze to death. He also said something to the effect that if he had not owed my grandfather a favor he would never give his ½ of the cabin to a long haired hippy kid from California. I had to promise the old Sourdough that I would have all of his traps flown back to town at the end of the trapping season or buy the traps from him.

My first winter was a disaster.

Before this the longest I had been in the wilderness was a 23 day Outward Bound survival class that I attended the year before and I had never spent a winter in a cold environment.

To get to the trapping cabin it was at least a two week walk from the end of closest dirt road or a 1:20 hour flight in a bush plane. The cheapest way to fly to the cabin was in a Piper PA-18 Super Cub on tundra tires. The pilot told me he could carry 1 passenger and 200 lbs of supplies or a total of 400 pounds of supplies and no passenger.

When the pilot dropped me off he told me “If I am in the area I will check on you” He did not have any charters that way so he did not check on me that winter.

I got out of the plane with a full back pack of gear, a duffel bag of supplies and a 30-06 rifle. I had to walk a few miles to the cabin. I left the duffel bag in a tree to retrieve later. With a full back pack and my rifle I walked as fast as I could to the cabin. I was excited to see “My cabin” at last. What a shock I had when I saw the cabin! The old Trapper had lived many winters in the cabin and told me it was built strong. What I found was a small log shack with a dirt floor and sod roof. In the cabin a wood stove, a hand built bed frame and table. A old bed mattress suspended by wire from the rafters. There were traps, snow shoes, ax, bow saw, one man cross cut saw, files, a lantern and the other basics that are needed to survive the Alaska winter as a trapper. The trapper had not been to the cabin for four years. At least 60% of the food supply that I was counting on had been eaten by rodents or had spoiled.

First lesson learned! If you count on food to be there when you need it, You better have had your food stored in a very secure way or you may go hungry. Theft is also something to be considered in today’s society and in TEOTWAWKI losing your food cache would be disastrous

Most people think it must have been boring spending 4 ½ months alone in a cabin. The reality is I was too busy just trying to cut enough wood to stay warm and skin the marten, fox or wolf that I trapped or shot. I was cold, hungry and exhausted most of the time. I never had the time to get board. Being a green horn at trapping I only averaged 1 animal a week and it was usually shot instead of trapped.

The first winter at the cabin.

As soon as I walked into the cabin I I knew I was in trouble. I did not have the 4-to-5 month supply of food I needed. I had a topo map of the trapping area only but did not have the maps to get me back to the road or town, Second lesson! Make your Egress plans ahead of time and have at least 2 good contingency plans.

Thankfully in the cabin there were two steel drums with snap ring lids that were full of dry goods and on the shelves were some cans of dried goods that were also still good. The following list is what was still edible in the cabin as best as I can remember

  • 50 lbs Bisquick
  • 50 lbs Beans
  • 25 lbs Rice
  • 10 Lbs Lentils
  • 20 lbs Oatmeal
  • 10 lbs Coffee
  • 2 lbs black pepper
  • 10 lbs Crisco
  • 4 lbs Honey
  • 25 lbs salt

The supplies along with a young moose I shot did keep me alive but it was no fun. I had youth and enthusiasm on my side and knew the situation was temporary. I decided to just make it a challenge and kind of live some of my grandfather's stories first hand for myself. I had in my pack 1 roll of toilet paper but there was none at the cabin

Third Lesson! Birch bark, snow or small pine cones work but make a very poor substitute for toilet paper. I also learned later that winter that at -40 your butt will freeze to a wood toilet seat in the outhouse. Make a toilet seat for the outhouse out of hard blue Styrofoam for winter will make using the outhouse less of a pain in the butt.

As fall quickly turned to winter the lake next to the cabin froze and the temp continued to drop. The high quality mountaineering boots I had used in the high Sierra mountains of California and Nevada were not anywhere near warm enough and did not have removable liners so the boots were hard to dry.

Forth lesson Pac boots with 2 sets of liners or bunny boots are must have items for cold environments.

Many times during the winter I could have shot Grouse or Ptarmigan If I had a 22 pistol. That would have added much wanted variety to the menu. The other problem I learned is if you get a wolf or wolverine in one of your traps a 30-06 blows too big a hole in the hide and destroys most of the value of the fur.

Fifth Lesson! a .22 rifle or pistol is a must have item.

After 2 months my clothes were in bad shape. Most Light weight high tech clothing used for backpacking or mountaineering is not designed for day to day hard use and does not hold up to rigors outdoor work for the long haul. High quality wool clothing does a lot better over the long haul and is not susceptible to melting next to a fire like nylon is. Yes wool is heavy and takes longer to dry but in my opinion for working in the woods wool is the way to go.

Sixth lesson ! clothing made for loggers, Surveyors and commercial fisherman may be heavy but it last a lot better than sporting gear. Filson is the best.

My diet was boring and I was always hungry after two months. I started getting sick and my teeth seemed to be getting loose. It finally dawned on me that I had no intake of Vitamin C. I may have had Scurvy. Remembering something I learned from my grandfather I started eating rose hips that were dried and still hanging on a few bushes near the cabin. Thankfully we did not have deep snows that year so I could find a few rose hips. I was lucky! Seventh Lesson! make sure you have a source of Vitamin C.

Every time I took my rifle inside the warm cabin it would condensate and the rifle would get wet.

Eighth Lesson If you bring a rifle into a warm cabin from a below freezing environment it will condensate, this promotes corrosion in addition the moisture in the bolt may be frozen the next time you are outside in the cold. If you do bring a weapon in from the cold strip it down, dry it and clean it. I left my rifle outside next to the door for most of the winter and only brought it in to clean. This would not work in a TEOTWAWKI so other tactics will have to be developed.

One morning there was a small earth quake that got me to thinking of my family and the outside world. Started felling very alone. Starting thinking what if the Russians had dropped “the bomb” I would not know it.

Lesson #9! Being able to at least hear what is going on in the outside world helps your mental attitude a lot. A radio to listen to the news was smoothing I longed for.

Snow shoes are easy to use and most anyone will figure them out quickly. When you are working on snow shoes you will fall now and then. Lesson # 10 tape the muzzle of your rifle to keep snow out of the barrel when you take the invariable header into the snow. I use electrical tape or put a condom over the muzzle of all my rifles in the field to keep everything out of the barrel. It will not affect accuracy unless you are shooting over 300 yards.

The winter was full of hardship and big education. I did enjoy it but given a choice I would not want to repeat that Winter. In the spring I sold my furs in Anchorage. The fur buyer could tell I had never trapped before as the way I had prepared the pelts was poor at best. I got .20 cents on the dollar for my pelts and I think that was generous on the part of the fur buyer. 4-½ months of hard work and after paying the bush pilot along with the money I still owed the trapper I would have less than $100. The trapper met me at the fur buyer after paying him for his traps he was now very friendly and asked me many questions. He encouraged me to go back for at least one more winter. He told me to go get a bath and haircut and meet him at the White Spot cafe down the street in downtown Anchorage and he would buy me a good meal. While eating he handed me a the following list

  • 90 lbs bisquick
  • 50 lbs Beans
  • 50 lbs Rice
  • 25 lbs Salt
  • 25 lbs Lentils
  • 20 lbs oatmeal
  • 10 lbs Sugar
  • 10 lbs lard
  • 10 lbs powdered milk
  • 10 lbs split peas
  • 10 lbs Tang [freeze-dried orange juice powder]
  • 10 lbs coffee
  • 10 lbs noodles
  • 1 case tomato paste
  • 5 lbs strawberry Jam
  • 4 lbs honey
  • 2 lbs pepper
  • 5 gal White gasoline
  • 4 large boxes wood matches
  • 24 large Plumber's Candles
  • 8 rolls toilet paper
  • 6 lantern mantels
  • 7 Lbs Trapping wire
  • Gun oil
  • Trapping lures and scents

This was the list of supplies that the trapper had the pilot bring to the cabin each spring when the plane came to pick him up. This filled what would have otherwise been an empty plane. In early April the lake next to the cabin was still frozen so the plane would land on skis and taxi next to the cabin. The pilot and trapper would put the supplies into the cabin then the pilot flew the trapper back to town.

The Trapper then informed me that he had purchased the supplies for me and was having them flown to the cabin along with 2 more steel drums to safely store the supplies in.

The "Rifle and a Backpack" Myth

I often get a chuckle from people that think they can fill a back pack and head into the woods and survive long term with what is in a back pack. Until recently I spent most of my life guiding in Alaska and in Africa. I spent an average 110 days a year living out of a back pack under a tarp or in a pup tent, and another 180 days each year living in a remote cabins without electricity or running water.

In an uninhabited game rich environment with a rifle and only a back pack of gear I could survive for a period of time. How long could I survive? I do not know as there are too many variables.

What I do know is in the case of TEOTWAWKI where many people would be fleeing the cities and overcrowding the wild places looking for food I could not survive trying to live off the land with only a back pack full of gear. There will simply not be the recourses available. If a skilled person had no ethics they could take to stealing, looting, probably murder/cannibalism they might make it long term starting with only a back pack full of gear. For me and my family I believe in preparing now and stocking up while food and supplies are available and reasonably priced.

In the early 1980s I bought a lot of my supplies from a sporting goods/gun store in Anchorage. The store maintained an excellent inventory for hunters, trappers or survivalists. The store manager could talk the talk on both survival and hunting. One fall he hired me to take him on a 14-day bow hunting trip into the Alaska bush and film the adventure. He also hired a young guy that had just moved to Alaska from Georgia to help carry camera gear. I was concerned regarding the greenhorn from Georgia and even more concerned when I saw his marginal gear. The Georgia greenhorn however did fine and was a huge help on the trip. The trip however was a complete failure. The store manager had every neat gadget I had ever seen and many that I had never heard of. His pack was too full to carry any of the food or camera gear. He was out of shape and his pack was also too heavy for him to comfortably carry. After the float plane dropped us off on a high mountain lake we planned to walk for a week to my cabin hunting Dall Sheep on the way. Then at the Cabin we planned to hunt Moose and Grizzly. During the first 2 days the store manager left a lot of gadgets and some much needed gear on the trail to lighten his pack. I was stunned as I thought this guy knew his stuff but he was totally bewildered on how to apply his knowledge or gear in the field. One of the things I still clearly remember is he actually dumped all of his extra socks and his rain gear at the first nights camp. Leaving that gear behind cost him dearly. The Greenhorn from Georgia was a farm kid and was able to adapt to the Alaska bush even with his marginal gear and lack of knowledge of the Alaska bush. The store manager never made a single stalk on any animal as it became a challenge to just get the store manager to the cabin. By the time we got him to the cabin his feet were so badly blistered he could hardly walk and could not even carry his own pack or bow. This rambling story actually has a point. I had heard the store manager tell many people before our trip that with his properly equipped backpack he could easily survive in the bush indefinitely. My grandfather use to say: "Ignorance is bliss but it will not put food on the table."

My Second Winter

I still had a lot to learn but this winter was a lot better. First thing when I arrived at the cabin was to see that the supplies were all there and in fine shape. I also had topo maps and now knew 3 different routes to get back to civilization. It was at least a 2 week walk but I at least knew the routes to get there.

In a TEOTWAWKI situation if you are at your retreat in the winter you will probably also get into a routine. That could be both good and bad. Think security and mix the times up so ambush is harder for the goons to set up.

Winter set in, an in my second winter in the cabin, it did not take long to get into my routine. Every day starts the same. At approximately 6:00 A.M. The alarm clock goes off. What I mean the stove has only a few coals left and the cabin is freezing so I have to get up and stoke the fire. Then step outside into the extreme cold. Cut a log into rounds and this is done in the dark. Then go down to the lake still in the dark (batteries for the flashlight are too precious to waste and so is gas for the lantern) carefully chip the ice around each of five fishing lines with a hatchet. Pull up the hook hoping for a burbut (fresh water ling cod) reset the bait, haul water back to the cabin. If I had not caught a fish for breakfast then on the meat pole next to the cabin I used the saw and cut off a frozen chunk of caribou. Still dark and I am cold, step into the cabin warm up my frozen hands, dry my gloves and cook breakfast on the wood stove. Then put the dutch oven with beans, lentils or rice on the wood stove to rehydrate while I am gone for the day. Pack my lunch: two pancakes with a slab of cooked caribou meat in the middle, also put one tablespoon of tang into my insulated water bottle then fill it with hot water from the pot on the stove. Warm tang makes a nice mid morning warm up on the trail and is a source of Vitamin C.

As it is just starting to get light strap on the snow shoes and head out pulling the sled. If it has not snowed I can walk on top of the packed trail with the snow shoes on the sled.

The day is spent dragging the sled checking and resetting traps while constantly looking for a wolf, fox or wolverine to shoot. During each day I must also find a dry standing dead spruce tree to cut down and limb with the ax then using the sled haul it back to the cabin. Must always be on my main trail with everything tied onto the sled before it is completely dark. Days are short: the mid-winter sun is only up for 4 ½ hrs. I used my flashlight is only for emergencies.

Following a packed trail is easy in the dark just remember to get behind the sled on any downhill or the sled will hit you in the back of your legs and could break a snowshoe or your leg. Usually get back to the cabin long after dark.

Lesson # 11 Cross country skis are no substitute for snow shoes.

The snow shoes at the cabin were old and on the last legs of useful life. Instead of bringing a new set of snow shoes I had purchased a new set of back country cross country skis to the cabin. I thought I would use the snow shoes as a backup. Learned that skis are not as good to work on as snow shoes for doing chores or trapping. Skis have a place and can save time but are not a replacement for snow shoes. In snow country snow shoes are essential and skis are a nice luxury.

Each night when I finally arrive at the cabin I am tired and hungry. First thing is to start the fire then fix dinner. After dinner if I was lucky that day I can light the lantern and skin whatever I had trapped or shot after it has thawed. 9:15 PM is the highlight of the day! I get to listen to the AM radio for 45 minutes.

Lesson #8 and had brought a radio this time. Always hoping Caribou Clatters has a message for me from my family. Allow myself 45 minutes to read by lantern or candle light. 11:00 PM re-stoke the fire and collapse on the bed. The radio, dinner and sleep are the reward of a day’s hard work. Around 2:30 AM the fire has burned to just a few coals and I get cold, get up put more wood on and go back to sleep. The next thing I know it is 6:00 AM the fire has burned to just a few coals and it is freezing in the cabin and the day starts all over again.

Lesson #12 In a cold winter climate Use no oil in the bolt or trigger assembly of your rifle as it may freeze. I tried to shoot at a wolf (a wolf hide was then worth $450) when I pulled the trigger on my rifle it only went click. The firing pin would not strike the primer with enough force to set off the primer. After the second try and another click the wolf ran off and out of range. That was only an expensive lesson. In a TEOTWAWKI it could have been some one shooting at me and I would have had a useless rifle.

On my daily trips to check the fishing lines and get water I knew the ice was 28” thick and still getting thicker each week. A December day the temp was -27 F and I was crossing the outlet end of a small lake to check out some tracks. Not worrying as I thought the ice was 28” thick everywhere I fell through the ice and found myself waist deep in water. This was two miles from my cabin It was all I could do to make it to the cabin.

Lesson #13 any out let or inlet of a frozen lake may have thin ice also a warm spring or other things can cause thin ice. The fire was out in my stove and no coals were left. I had a very hard time getting a fire started and as a last resort used white gas and almost burned down the cabin.

Lesson #14 have the kindling and all the fixings of a fire ready any time you leave your cabin. You never know when someone may be at the end of their strength and need to get a fire going.

One evening in early January I returned to the cabin to find a note and care package on the table from the bush pilot. The pilot had brought me a bag of oranges, a fruit cake and a newspaper. He also left three letters from my family. It was if I had won the lottery

As the snow got deeper during the winter I started finding that many animals liked to use my packed trail. I learned never underestimate the danger of a moose particularly in the winter if they are on a packed trail they may charge you instead of going into deep snow. I had a cow moose chase me up a tree then stomp my on sled and break one of my snow shoes.

Lesson #15 Moose are dangerous, especially late winter

In early February I came across Grizzly tracks in the snow. I was shocked as I thought that bears would be in the den all winter. I followed the tracks and found the bear had made a moose kill.

Lesson # 16 Grizzly bears and black bears do not truly hibernate and may be out of the den during any month of the year. Over the years I learned if a bear is away from his den in the winter it will be hungry and grumpy.

As a kid I loved watching western movies. It seemed to me cowboys wore their handgun in a low slung fast draw holster and I thought that was cool. The western style fast draw holsters I tried in the bush were useless. I now see that some law enforcement and military teams are using a thigh mounted holster. I am not disputing the tactical points of that method but if you are working in the woods you will occasionally fall into snow or mud. That is when you want your hand gun in a full flap holster or in a normal holster worn under the last layer of clothing. Getting your hand gun into your hand fast is of no use if it will not fire when you need it.

Lesson #18 Select holsters that will allow you to comfortably carry your hand gun with you at all times and will protect the weapon from the elements. I have tried over 40 different holsters and method of carrying my handgun. I strongly suggest you experiment now on how to carry your own handgun. Find something that works for you. I presently use three different holsters:

  • A holster that I use to carry concealed when I am in a city environment.
  • A holster when I am working in the bush.
  • A holster when I am flying float planes.

In March, the bush pilot landed on the frozen lake with 400 lbs of supplies. He helped me put the food into the steel drums for the next trapping season then flew me back to town.

I had spent 160 days alone in the bush trapping. I sold my furs to the fur buyer in Anchorage. After paying the bush pilot for the supplies and flights to the cabin and back I had cleared $2,700.

I learned a lot that winter and over the years refined the old trappers list to keep me well fed and a lot happier.

A More Complete Supply List

After my experiences the first two winters, I composed the following list. This is for one man for five to six months. It was refined for my personal taste and needs in the Alaska bush. The old trapper that I got my first list from made do with a lot less than what I took. This list is tried and true and not a just theory that someone made up. I had around 200 traps and ran the line on snowshoes, foot and skis. Cut my firewood by hand (no chain saw) and hauled my water from the lake in buckets. It was hard work 12-15 hours a day 7 days a week and I burned a lot of calories. Using the following list I ate well and always had plenty of supplies left in the spring:

  • 50 lbs Flour
  • 50 lbs Bisquick
  • 25 lbs Pancake mix
  • 35 lbs Sugar
  • 50 lbs Pinto Beans
  • 25 lbs Rice
  • 40 lbs Salt pork
  • 25 lbs Salt
  • 10 lbs Dried prunes
  • 10 lbs Raisons
  • 10 lbs Dried apricots
  • 10 lbs Dried apples
  • 10 lbs Dried peaches
  • 25 lbs Oatmeal
  • 10 lbs Honey
  • 2 cases Tomato paste
  • 25 lbs powdered milk
  • 15 lbs [canned] Butter
  • 25 lbs Corn meal
  • 25 lbs [canned] Cheese
  • 20 lbs Spaghetti Noodles
  • 10 lbs Crisco
  • 15 lbs Hot cocoa mix
  • 10 lbs Dried eggs
  • 5 lbs Strawberry Jam
  • 3 lbs Apricot Jam
  • 2 boxes Pilot bread
  • 1 gal Maple Syrup
  • 180 Multi vitamins
  • 180 Vitamin C
  • 1 lb [powdered dry] Yeast
  • 180 Tea bags
  • 1 lbs Pepper
  • 1 lbs
  • Baking soda
  • 8 lbs
  • Dried onions
  • 1 lb Baking powder
  • 1 lb. Corn starch
  • 24 oz Garlic powder
  • 12 oz Vanilla
  • 2 rolls aluminum foil
  • 1/2 gal Dish soap
  • 5 bars non-scented soap
  • 36 Canning lids (to can meat if we had a winter thaw or for leftover in the spring)
  • 8 oz Hydrogen peroxide
  • 2 oz Iodine
  • 12 rolls Toilet paper
  • 2 Small sponges
  • 2 Scrub pads
  • 1 roll Duct Tape
  • 4 boxes of wooden Matches
  • 24 Plumber's candles
  • 500 rounds .22 long rifle hollow point ammo
  • 100 .308 ammo 125 grain hollow point varmint ammo
  • 20 rounds .308 ammo 180 grain (for Moose or Caribou )
  • Trapping license and regulations
  • Hunting license, moose tags and caribou tags
  • New snowshoe bindings
  • 1 truck inner tube
  • 3 New hacksaw blades
  • 2 New Ax handles
  • 8 Bow saw blades
  • 36 oz Lanolin
  • 6 Disposable lighters
  • 12 gal White gas [aka Coleman Fuel]
  • 12 Lantern mantels
  • 6 oz. Gun oil
  • Trapping Lures, urine and musk
  • 10 lbs Trap wax
  • 2 rolls Survey ["flagging"] tape
  • 1 pair Heavy Neoprene trapping gloves
  • 7 lbs Trapping wire( 50% 12 ga and 50% 14 ga)
  • 50 ft Trap Chain #2 and #3
  • 24 Links
  • 24 Swivels
  • AM Radio with 8 extra 9 volt batteries
  • 8’ New stove pipe for cabin stove
  • 4 Leather awl needles and 50’ waxed thread
  • Extra shoulder straps for pack frame
  • Extra hip belt for pack
  • New lid for fry pan 14”
  • 100’ - 3/8 nylon rope
  • 12x18” glass to replace cracked window
  • Personal items
  • 1 Wool Jacket
  • 2 Wool pants
  • 2 Work pants
  • 1 Pair insulated Carhartt coveralls
  • 4 Pair work gloves
  • 2 Pair heavy winter over mittens.
  • Winter trappers hat
  • 1 pair
  • Pack boots with 2 sets liners
  • 1 pair Bunny Boots
  • 1 Wool sweater
  • 4 pair long sleeved wool shirts
  • 3 pair Wool long john pants
  • 3 pair Wool long john shirts
  • 8 pair Wool socks
  • 8 pair Cotton socks
  • 6 pair Underpants
  • 1 Bible
  • 2 flying ground school books
  • 6 Short sleeve Cotton shirts
  • Tooth brush
  • Tooth powder
  • 2 rolls dental floss
  • Carried or in an external frame pack:
  • 1 .308 rifle
  • 1 22 pistol (Colt Woodsman)
  • Rain coat
  • Rain pants
  • Insolite sleeping pad
  • Sleeping bag
  • 10x12’ and 4x8’ light nylon tarps
  • Flashlight
  • Flashlight batteries
  • Binoculars, 10x40
  • Green River skinning knife, caping knife, boning knife.
  • Small stone, small file and small diamond steel
  • Compass
  • Topo maps 1:250,000 scale
  • 2 Candles
  • Matches in waterproof container
  • Lighter
  • Small cook pot with lid
  • Water bottle
  • 100’ Parachute cord
  • Small First aid kit with Large suture needles and suture, in sealed pack
  • Mini channel locks (Snap-on) used for sutures and other things
  • Pack repair kit
  • ¾-length Hand ax. (Estwing)
  • Small shovel
  • Bow saw with extra blade
  • 1 pair wool socks
  • Wire snares
  • Fish hooks and line
  • 25’ .042” stainless wire
  • 1 lb Dried soup mix

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Tuesday September 1 2009

Developing Our Family's Survival Strategy, by FBP

We started prepping about 18 months ago. I have felt like a chicken with its head cut off, going wildly in all directions. I’ve learned a lot about a lot, some by research, but have learned most from doing. Being prior military (I served six years in the Army Captain, and as a civilian, I was a financial planner), I started identifying mission statements and initiating plans, backwards (aka backwards planning) in order to get them accomplished on time.

The first mission: “How do we survive hyperinflation?” My readings led me to believe that the best protection is to plan on not needing to spend money on stuff and save money for taxes. The question is how to accomplish that! I concluded that becoming as self-sufficient as possible and inter-dependent and mutually supportive with other like-minded persons.

Another mission: “How to survive societal meltdown with options and strategies.” We determined that we needed to prepare in-place in our current home while we simultaneously worked to identify a homestead, but one that also optimized our security needs under a societal meltdown scenario. We had to define those security needs and defensive goals. We also decided to initiate some basic security in-place.

What kind of retreat? What does one need for a retreat and where? Our pursuits included looking at everything from two perspectives, the retreat and the in-place strategy. We have decided that if we haven’t relocated, that bugging out would entail leaving the majority our resources and is not a viable option. We will defend in place if we don’t get relocated before TEOTWAWKI.

My research indicated that to be fully self-sufficient where we not only grow our own food, but also that of our livestock, that we would need around 15 acres. Notably, a 5 acre homestead would do a lot! In researching homesteading and agriculture in-place alternatives I found out that Cubans grow 70% of their own food in the cities! I found that there are several cases of very small acreage homesteaders of an acre or less growing nearly all their needs! I recently discovered that I wouldn’t need to preserve so much if, instead of a huge garden once a year, I maintained a year-round greenhouse and grew what we needed on a staggered rotation basis inside the greenhouse with fresh food all the time! This year a summer thunderstorm hail storm wrecked a good portion of my garden and reminded me of the need for having a storage pantry! I will be doing a bit of both, for safety.

Other factors which have bearing on the retreat are:
1. Water. We wanted a creek, and especially if it had hydroelectric possibilities year-round; plus sub-irrigated property, and possibly a spring. Meanwhile, we have purchased a number of water barrels, filled them, and discovered some alternatives to ‘keep’ the water: bleach every 6 months, or other additives which could keep it up to 5 years, or boil it before use, and /or filter it. We bought a water filter system. Wells are acceptable for domestic use, but we still want a dependable surface water source in case the well ran dry. We found information available on property wells on the Internet under ‘well logs’ and the respective state.

[JWR Adds: Finding a property with sub-irrigated pasture is great, as is finding a property with micro-hydro development potential. But finding a parcel with both is a genuine rarity, because land that is sub-irrigated is almost always dead-level, near a stream or river. But for good micro-hydro power, you need a fast-flowing creek or river, with plenty of "fall" that you can exploit. For that, you need hilly property, not "bottom land." So those two goals are almost mutually exclusive, unless you buy a huge parcel that has both features.]

2. Sun. We looked at properties, and in particular, the garden and agricultural spots for solar exposure. This is affected by location such as northern or southern latitude, proximity to trees and hills, sun-angles including winter sun. We also looked into Solar for Solar Power. We found hydro-electric power to be less expensive and more available than solar so we have decided to make hydro a priority on our retreat search.

3. Soils. Self-sufficiency is agricultural based so having access to good soils for crops and livestock is paramount. Soil also needs to drain well for crops and septic systems as well. Meanwhile, our home garden soils have been amended (enriched) with compost and chicken manure and the garden looks like Hawaii, lush, green and prolific! The county ‘extension office’ was able to provide a lot of information about the agriculture in the local area of interest.

4. Elevation. The higher the elevation of the property, the shorter the growing season is. We determined that we preferred properties below 2,400 feet elevation, and although we love Montana, we found that virtually the entire state is above 3,000 feet, and Wyoming is largely over 4,000 feet, Northern Arizona is high elevation too! So, for agriculture, we like parts of Washington, Idaho and Oregon.

5. Population. After fairly extensive scouting of the territory, we found that a lot of the country is fairly densely populated, especially the good agricultural areas! It takes a lot of research, to locate remote properties. We found a useful tool for this research is the Internet, and specifically, Windermere.com (which also has aerial views) and Google Maps (which has terrain view) and MapQuest.com (aerial view). We found that the listing office web site often had additional information and pictures available. The SurvivalBlog provided a link to a great city population comparison tool at Moving.com.

6. Security. There are numerous factors to consider when contemplating retreat security, including in-place home security: the Lay of the land, Visibility, Obstacles, Community, Alert systems, Accessibility, Cache, Population, and Ammunition. Regarding Ammunition, if we need to defend in place in our current home, it would be appropriate to have more shotguns and handguns for the home. Rifle fire in a residential neighborhood is not a good choice. We don’t want bullets flying out through the neighbor’s property. Looking at fields of fire and early warning systems has become a high priority. We remember that it was during the Los Angeles riots that the armed Korean businesses were left alone, passed on by and onto easier targets. Being armed is important!

How does one survive hyperinflation? Research includes Harry Figgie's book Bankruptcy 1995, in which Chapter 8 spells out the history of hyperinflation. I figure that the US didn't go Bankrupt in 1995 because it has been spending Social Security funds for operating capital. Can you spell Ponzi scheme? Other research included the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic 1923, Argentina 2001, and Zimbabwe today. I have obtained an actual 100 Trillion Zimbabwe dollar note, worthless and no longer a currency, as a reminder of where we are headed. The Zimbabwean people have to pan for gold to buy bread. With worthless currency, the population (will that be us?) cannot get paid enough to keep up with the ever increasing costs of things and cannot afford heat, or food.

It is my belief that hyperinflation can be survived primarily through Homesteading and Self-sufficiency and/or inter-dependence in a tight-knit group. Essential Elements for self-sufficiency and which I/we have done include:
1. Canning. With the Ball Blue Book of Preserving, which is about $6 at Wal-Mart, you can ‘can’ almost everything you may want to put up including meat, vegetables, and even condiments and meals! I also discovered Lehman's catalog is indispensable for homesteading tools!
2. Gardening, Green House gardening, Container Gardening, and growing Herbs. This year I have learned about non-hybrid seeds, to grow crops that I can and did save the seeds to grow the same crop next year without having to buy seeds. I also saved seeds from fruits and vegetables eaten and successfully grew and harvested crops this year from them!
3. Dehydrating (vacuum sealing jars and crock-pot meals) http://www.excaliburdehydrator.com/media.php These 9 incredible videos are on dehydrating foods and preparing meals, really quickly too.
4. Making bread (wonderful resources are at www.youtube.com and www.cook.com and many more.)
5. Making cheese (with friends)
6. Spinning wool (with friends)
7. Food storage long-term, Poly buckets, Mylar bags
8. Inventory management (FIFO) Pantry rotation
9. Cooking out of the pantry (www.backwoodshome.com) "Store what you eat and eat what you store!"
10. How to make stuff from scratch (baking powder, toothpaste, shampoo, dinner Not in a Box, beer, soda, root beer, ice cream, yogurt, cheese, butter, soaps, sew, automotive repair/rebuild, and much much more…)
11. Water. Water barrels and RV water system. Roof is ample for rain collection and plan on the above ground swimming pool for a holding tank.
12. Power. Our new China Diesel generator from India is nearly finished (teardown/rebuilt). It should run for 30 years. Long term fuel supplies will be a ongoing need.
13. Refuse/Garbage/Recycle … by canning and making from scratch, we have virtually eliminated ‘trash’. Leftovers get reused and consumed in casseroles, stews or other dishes and / or fed to the dog. Vegetable remnants go to the compost. Yard and trees waste get run through our shredder and put into the compost pile for our garden. We run two compost piles year-round.
13. Livestock. Currently in town, we are planning on chickens, rabbits, plus bees. We are fortunate enough to have an acre. If we are to make it on only an acre, we may have to barter for livestock feed because we may not have enough land to grow it. We can at a minimum raise rabbits for meat. We have city friends which have raised chickens, rabbits, bees, and sheep successfully for years. We look forward to a remote retreat where we will have more options for livestock.

How do we survive a melt-down crisis?
We decided that we wanted to provide for at least a year of reserves. We came to that conclusion calculating that our food supplies would need to carry us until we got the garden harvested in the year following the collapse; and, time to acquire and raise livestock (hopefully we would have chickens, rabbits and goats at a minimum before meltdown; but, if not, we have alternative foods stored for a minimum of a year!) We determined that there are several ways to achieve this goal depending upon timeframe, time you have to do it yourself, and money. First you have to determine what you need and how much. This can be quite involved depending upon your approach. Then your options are: Meals-Ready-to Eat (MREs), packaged foods such as Mountain House or Alpine Air which are either freeze-dried or dehydrated and you just add water, or you do it yourself, which gives you some flexibility and more important ‘repeatability’, but is very time consuming, and that is important if you think there is not much time left. You may want to ‘acquire’ a year’s supply of food package, and then learn ‘how to’ as you go. We found poly-buckets free at Costco Bakery, and for a nominal cost at Nalley's. Yes, they smelled of icing or pickles, but washed up fine and are food grade. With Mylar bags and CO2 from the local welding shop, we put up food stores readily.

In addition to food, we wanted a year’s store of normal shopping of household supplies: toilet paper, aluminum foil, plastic wrap, (handkerchiefs instead of Kleenex tissues), (towels instead of paper towels), laundry soap, bar soap, shampoo (sure we could make it, but we’d need “fat” and “hardwood ashes” to make it ourselves), medical supplies for general medicinal and also for emergencies: bleeding, dental, disease / quarantine supplies (masks, gloves, antiseptics), etc. We also anticipate that the banking system will not be available, i.e. there will be no operational ATMs, no open Teller Windows, and credit cards will be declined/inoperable. We set aside an amount of “cash”, today’s currency, for our crisis operating capital, and some in silver. We liquidated some IRAs to obtain the assets now. To us, these assets are better now to get prepared and are better than having more, but worthless currency in the future. The saying, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush, comes to mind. We have researched the metals markets and deemed them manipulated but with lots of upside (see Ted Butler's commentaries). We feel that one of the best investments is agricultural real estate.

We are debt free and hope to stay that way. We own our own home free and clear. This is not to brag or make someone feel bad, but rather to motivate you to wonder how. It is by not being a ‘consumer’, but by being balanced and frugal, buying what we needed, foregoing vacations, doing without ‘designer labeled jeans’, without landscaping, however we did invest in having a dump truck load of dirt dropped in the backyard for the garden since all we had was rocks for soil. We have several original household appliances and fixed them when they broke instead of getting new ones. We buy good used cars, maintain them well and keep them for years as long as they meet our needs.

I believe that there is a game of keep-away when it comes to how to get and stay ahead financially. The banks and others profit more by people remaining ‘consumers’ and participating as a throw-away society. Massive disinformation exists to misdirect and profit from the populace efforts. A lot of wealth for others is made and maintained by keeping the populace misinformed about financial tools, how they work and what they are used for correctly. However, ‘financial tools’ (CDs, Stocks, Insurance, Loans) are exactly that, “tools”! Tools can be an incredible resource and can help us build monuments, or can be deadly weapons that can destroy us.

Financial success starts with you. Identify your ‘needs’. Spend to meet your needs, not to ‘save’ on an on-sale item that you truly didn’t ‘need’. Shop wisely. Will second-hand merchandise meet your needs; can the item be repaired, etc.? Take care of your things and you don’t have to replace them so often.

You need to shop and learn about financial tools to meet your goals. The first is the placement of your savings (short-term, mid-term, long-term). There are numerous options with a few listed below.

Banks ‘are not your friends’! They are a ‘Tool’! They are a place to situate your short-term cash--your working capital that is used to pay bills.

Loanership dollars where you loan your money for a rate of return to you (interest): Banks (CDs), Money Markets, Insurance Companies (annuities), Corporate (Bonds), Municipal (Bonds), and Government (Bonds).

Ownership dollars where you invest your money and accept ownership risks (of loss or gain):
Stocks (owning a fractional interest in a company), real estate (your home, other real estate), Partnerships (business enterprise, etc.), and Precious Metals.

Insurance is a “Tool”! You need insurance to cover the calamity expense/risk(s) which you cannot afford, only! Often, you are not informed that your premium would be much lower if you accepted a higher deductible. It might be inconvenient to have to pay $1,000 if your car was wrecked or your home damaged, or a major medical claim, but the insurance would cover a catastrophic loss!

A home loan is a tool too. The structure of a loan is important, fixed or variable. Variable contains a ‘gamble’ element. Unless it is stipulated otherwise, most home loans can be prepaid, or accelerated. You have the ability to pay an extra amount above the mortgage payment. This extra amount can be applied towards principal, which you need to specifically specify ‘apply to principal’! Pre-paying a mortgage, especially in the early years of a loan is one of the greatest savings rates a person can achieve!

We actually paid our 30 year mortgage off in about 12 years. Admittedly, our friends drove newer cars, went on vacations, have better furniture, prettier lawns, fancier clothes, and went out to dinner and the movies more than we did. However, we are debt free. Yes, we are still worried about tight finances and the world situation, but our current position is a lot less stressful than being loaded with lots of debt. It can be done, with sacrifices!

It is an imperative for Americans to educate themselves, to not trust the system. Find out about things. Get inquisitive and broaden your horizons. This year I have eaten cooked nettles. Yes, it was very good. It was similar to spinach and no nettle burn! I had Yak meat at a local restaurant and now want to pursue having Yaks for livestock. Learn new things and hard skills. Become creative and inventive; how else can it be done? Become flexible, find alternative ways of getting things done, adapt!

We have a small group of friends with whom we meet regularly, try new projects and explore ideas. Our daily ‘walks’ have helped us meet our neighbors. Our friends suggested that we hold a ‘Meltdown Neighborhood Tea Party’ Potluck get-together. That sounds like a good idea to meet our kind of people. I believe we can do anything we put our minds to, especially if we work together.

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Friday August 28 2009

Know Thy Neighbor, by "The Old Salt" in Virginia

In reading “Preparedness Beginnings” by Two Dogs it struck me that I had been missing a vital part of basic preparedness . . . I was doing it naturally, but I realized how many post I had read that left it out or put it as “I will need to do this when . . . “.  My title tells the story, but let me digress a little and put some background to it: Like “Two Dogs”, who is a retired Marine Corp Officer, I’m a retired Naval Officer who drug his family around the country through nine moves in a 30 year career . So getting to “know” new neighbors was something we just took for granted, what I would like to do is share a few thoughts on the process and ideas to get you started (if you need it).  We are not new to the “preparedness game” since we bought our first retreat property in 1973 in central Texas, have lived through 2 major hurricanes in Florida and 1 in Virginia, 1 major earthquake in California, and have lived and seen the third world up close and personal . Because of what we have seen and lived through, we currently live at our retreat full time in western Virginia.

We had always lived by the four “S’s” of survival: Salvation (the reason to survive is to continue to spread the Good News), Sustenance (water, food and medical), Shelter (a roof over your head and clothing) and Security (to keep your family and friends safe from those that would do harm or take advantage of situations).  I would now like to add a fifth “S”, Surroundings . . . I guess we had always done it, but we just didn’t think about it.  My definition of “surroundings” is to “know your neighbors” who surround you . Are they an asset to you and your family, or a liability?   In today’s world, with the grid working, stores stocked, the rule of law and a culture we think we understand we can lump all our neighbors in the category of “unknown” (or “who cares”/) But if/when things don’t work all those “unknowns” now become “liabilities”, just because you don’t know!    I do not want to offend “Two Dogs”, or anyone else who might have posted similar statements, but having neighbors who own guns and shot regularly, without knowing something about them is a serious liability.   What will that family do if they cannot feed themselves or keep warm in the winter . . . and they have guns?   I agree with “Two Dogs” that you cannot knock on your neighbors’ door and ask “how are you stocked for bean, bullets and Band-aids”. That question must wait until you have spent time getting to know about them , and them you!   Those of you who are extroverts will have no problem with what I’m going to say, but for those introverts this will streeeetch your comfort level. But it is essential, if you really believe things can come apart or go wrong!

I do not intent to open Pandora’s Box about “gulching in place”, a bug-out retreat, escape to the woods or living in the “hinterboonies”. I have probably prepared for everyone of these and more. The point is you will have neighbors in any location, so you need to know who and what they are!   As an old pastor of ours used to say: “yes, but how”?  So let me share some of our thoughts (my wife of 39 years was and is a major part of this process).

First there is just “observation”, what can you just “see”, this is not spying, it happens as you walk, bike or drive by?  Are they home a lot or is it empty during the day?  Do you see kids’ toys; swing sets, bikes, or is the yard a “yard of the month club”?  Do you see a vegetable garden or a flower garden, are there fruit trees or shade trees?  What kind of car do they drive, is it a family sedan, sports car, yuppie SUV, a real off-road rig, or maybe just an old truck?  Do you see bumper stickers with a political message or theme?   Do they have an NRA decal?  Does it have a Department of Defense vehicle decal (active or retired military)?  Is the garage just for vehicles or is it a mechanics paradise?   Do you see a work shop?  Is there a stack of firewood close to the house?  Are you getting the idea?  For those that live in suburbia this is not a hard task, since small yards and high density living make this a fairly quick and easy task.  For those who live more rural, with homes on “acres” of land the house may not even be visible, so you will have to find more inventive ways.  Now this doesn’t tell you a lot, but it is a start and you may find some common ground you have with them.
Next are introductions. A simple knocking on the door and a “hello” starts it off.  Once again this is much easier in suburbia, but it works in rural areas as well. You just have to get up the nerve to do that “cold call”.  We have found that “hi, we’re your new/old neighbor down the street and thought we’d introduce ourselves” works wonders.  Another opportunity is if you see your “neighbors” having a yard sale or have an old car (or anything) for sale, you don’t have to buy anything, but take the opportunity to introduce yourself and begin the conversation.   You are looking for common ground, something to keep the conversation going and continue it another day!  In some cases gated entrances and long “private” drives makes this impractical, but that means you will have to be that much more inventive. 

Something we have done, with mixed results, is a “house warming party” or “block party”.  The old saying “if you feed them, they will come” has a lot of truth in it.  Make these “family” events and plan for the kids activities, it will go a long way to opening doors with parents.  Our experience has been a “personal” invitation works much better than a mailed invitation, even if only a small percentage shows up you have made a start.  It is amazing how quick you can expand your circle of new acquaintances, once you start networking with just a few new folks.   Ask about their jobs or career, how about children (ask a grandparent and the pictures will come out--share yours), do grown children live locally or distant, where do they shop and are there shops to stay away from, where is a good mechanic, do they have a hobby or passion, do they “can” vegetables, sew, do they hunt (this opens up whole new areas for discussion). Do you get the idea?  Let me caution you that you are still not at the point of discussing “beans, bullets and Band-Aids”.   You are trying to “learn” about your neighbors and at the same time they should be learning a little about you.  

Another vital area is “community involvement” . . . are you going to be as asset to your community or a liability?   Okay, how do you “get involved”?  In rural communities we have volunteer fire departments, even the Sheriffs Department looks for volunteers (office work and dispatch) and even if you cannot take an active role there are all the fund raisers they need help with, help out at the local animal shelter. Roll up your selves and join-in.   Join a local church and be an active member. Small rural churches will welcome you with open arms if you pitch-in and the networking possibilities are terrific for expanding your circle of new acquaintances.   We joined a small rural congregation where everyone was related to everyone else and had been for generations and felt this would be a real “test” of our abilities . . . we were worried about the wrong thing . . . we now have so many new friends and acquaintances we have trouble getting to know them on a real personal level (the wife took over piano duties and that freed up the music director to lead worship instead of playing, we took over teaching the teenage Sunday school class, which freed up the Pastors wife for other tasks and helped us get to know their parents . . . make yourself an asset to the community and they will get to know you) .

It is only after you have spend time getting to know them, that you can begin to think about “the discussion” (remember OPSEC, listen a lot, share a little).   By then you should have “arranged” all these new folks into groups, for me they looks like this (these are personal assessments and each must come up with their own, based on your circumstances and situations): the majority are sheeple, nice folks but hopeless clueless (you can spend time trying to “educate” them, but I’ve found this to be “tilting at windmills”, as a rule they are not a liability since they don’t believe in exercising their Second Amendment rights. They will become refugees, some (thankfully very few) will be assigned “liability” risks and that will have to factor into your security considerations (I have found it is a waste of time to reason with them, but they can be “educational” to talk to.) Let me add a caution, if a family has teenagers observe their behavior. It is unfortunate, but peer pressure has turn some nice kids into very self destructive individuals), a few will be like-minded individuals that you can relate and share and plan with. But it is the next group that you will spend the majority of your time with, they are “concerned”, but don’t know what to do!   It is these “willing” folks that should take the majority of your time. Help them learn; to change their lifestyle, set new priorities and prepare for their family.  For some you have already done this and I congratulate you, for others this may not be new, but you have failed to put it into action, for the rest this is new and scary stuff and this article only touches on concepts and leaves a lot of unknowns, but the best way to learn something is to just “do it”!  None of this is easy or quick so do not delay in starting this in your neighborhood. Your life and the life of your family may depend on the knowledge you learn.  - The “Old Salt” in Virginia.

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Friday August 21 2009

Letter Re: Preparedness for Living on a Chesapeake Bay Island

Mr. Rawles,
I am just now (pretty late in the game, I know) becoming aware of the impending collapse and have begun reading your blog regularly (it is the first thing I read in the mornings now). I realize now that I must prepare as much as I can and have a question about my current location. I live on an isolated (no bridges, ferry and airplane transport only) Island in the Chesapeake Bay. It is somewhat densely populated for its size, but everyone knows each other and most residents hunt and fish and have their own boats. Many residents are quite self sufficient and the crime rate is virtually non- existent. I realize we are downwind of several nuclear targets (DC is only about 70 miles away as the crow flies) but this area (the Delmarva Peninsula) and this island in particular are sparsely populated. I recently bought a house here and cannot afford to move anywhere anytime soon, and if I could, I could only get to rural western Virginia, West Virginia, or Eastern Kentucky at the furthest. The only benefit of my current locale is that in the event of a collapse, it would be isolated and looters would be unable to get here. On the other hand, there would be 500+ residents and little or no fuel to power fishing vessels after current supplies run out. The climate is mild and we could get by with little or no heat in the winter. Much of the surrounding land is swampland and not conducive to agriculture. There are few firearms on the Island other than a few shotguns for duck hunting. I currently own a Glock 21 (.45 ACP) for personal protection and am looking into rifles. I would like an M1A but probably could not afford one. How could I make my current situation more suited to riding out a crisis? Any response will be greatly appreciated. Very Respectfully, - R.T.

JWR Replies: A few things come immediately to mind:

  • You should stock up on fuel for your own use, and for barter.) Coleman white gas has a 6+ year shelf life, and can be used in engines as well as lanterns and stoves.
  • Stock up on two-cycle fuel-mixing oil. (For chainsaws and older outboard engines.)
  • Have a large propane tank installed, and make sure that it is has a wet leg. (So that it can be used to fill smaller containers.)
  • If you don't have one already, get a tri-fuel generator, and a photovoltaic power system if you can afford it.
  • You need a long gun for defense. Even if it is just a well-used "beater" Mauser, Mosin-Nagant, or Enfield bolt-action, that is better than nothing. And in essence, what you currently have is almost nothing.(Don't bring just a pistol to a rifle fight!)
  • Stock up on non-hybrid gardening seeds. (Several of my advertisers sell them.) Also, build up your topsoil!

Your situation is unusual, but not unique. Make the best of the local resources, and organize with your neighbors to provide a common defense.

One could safely predict that in the event of a "slow slide" depression, you may see a situation develop similar to that of present-day Roatan Island (off the coast of Honduras), where burglars and even home invasion robbers commute to the island from the mainland via ferryboat.

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Sunday August 16 2009

Letter Re: Viability of a Well-Stocked Suburban Retreat?

Good Morning!
Thank you for the info you provide for all of us in your web site. I live in the Kansas City Area in a beautiful suburb which is one of the nicest cities in the country. till doing okay in the depression too. My work is secure and I do well and I own my own twp-story with basement frame home and have been making it a retreat for the past five years. I have no debt and am 60 days ahead with my mortgage and insurance and utilities. Am I absolutely crazy to try to stay here when things go bad?

First, let me tell you what I have done. I have a new roof ,which is fireproof. I have two large fire extinguishers in each room and more in the basement and garage and attic and I have a 2-inch fire hose with Honda generator to pull water from my 2,000 gallon swimming pool/fountain as well as from my 2,000 gallon [combined capacity] plastic tanks under the deck. Yes, they will freeze in the winter so I may add a new tank in the basement. I have 100 50-pound bags of sand which can also put out fires [and double as ballistic protection].

I have a strong 7' wood cedar privacy fence around my back and side yards and I have landscaped them such that it is difficult to see into my yard from any point but still need to add a few more tall bushes to screen my home. I brought in 80 [cubic] yards of great topsoil for the backyard to level it and to add garden areas so I can grow lots of food. I have a gutter system hooked up to the water storage and I have 3 months of water stored now in the basement and when the time comes new 55 gallon water barrels with hand pumps will be in each of my 4 bath rooms and kitchen. There is a pond and active stream 200' from my home and 5 of my neighbors next door and up hill from me have large swimming pools that I can siphon water from. I can produce clean water for 25 for 20 years with my water filters. So I have five ways to get water when the tap stops running.

I can feed my family for more than five years and then grow food too. I have all the stuff you buy in the stores weekly. I can grow food inside or outside and in a greenhouse too that is next to the house which can be heated with the natural warmth of the earth /basement and wood-burning stove, and sunshine.

We can protect ourselves better than anyone you might know, night and day. I have tried to set up my perimeter in my yard using the fence and bushes and trees and berms, etc. without anyone seeing the difference so that a stray bullet or two will not hit us easily. I will build gravel plywood walls in key places inside when TSHTF to reduce stray bullets. My fireplace is 5' x 5' x 4' deep so I can burn 4' foot logs and keep half my home warm and the firewood is placed outside on the side yards to slow down a bullet or two. The fireplace outside is 10' wide and goes above the roof. I have a wood stack 10 yards long, half of it is 4' long wood. I built a barbeque grill/water fall/pool that is solid 12' concrete that works well to stop bullets and it is 20' long and 8' high and looks really cool too.
In my basement I am finishing I added some 12" concrete walls to also give more strength to the floor above and to
slow down a bullet or two.

There are thick forests within 200' of my neighborhood to hide in if necessary and they run the stream for 50 miles. I have a nice "wine room" that is built to Joel Skousen standards [per his book The Secure Home] just in case the web bots are right and we have a problem with radiation.

I may have missed to say a thing or two but have been through others check lists to cover it all.

Can I make it in the city? Or do I want to be a refugee or try to live with friends four normal driving hours away without my stuff?

Thanks, - B., Near K.C.

JWR Replies: Your preparations are excellent for someone living in the suburbs. I believe that your plans to stay in place will probably suffice for all but a true worst-case scenario. But it is important to get to know your contiguous neighbors well, including the neighbors behind your back fence. Having neighbors that you know on a first name basis, and that you can trust in times of Deep Drama will be crucial in the next decade. At present, my best estimate is that we will likely experience an economic depression that will be on a par with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Crime will be rampant, and you will need to institute a Neighborhood Watch on Steroids. That necessitates solid familiarity and trust.

Attached greenhouses are wonderful for situations where there isn't much home invasion crime, but they are a huge security risk in inimical times.

I recommend that you hedge your bets by pre-positioning some of your supplies with your friends, in anticipation of worst-case grid down collapse, where the municipal water will not be available. This is not a major issue for you, since you have an abundance of stored water, and rainwater collection system. But "grid down" will be a true disaster for your neighbors within just a few days. They will likely abandon their houses, leaving you by yourself to defend against large numbers of very desperate looters. You mentioned that you have a five year food supply --which is quite commendable--I'd recommend that you store up to half of it with your friends in the country. Keep in mind that you may only have the opportunity to make one trip Outta Dodge, so it is important to have some crucial logistics stored at your backup retreat.

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Wednesday August 12 2009

Preparedness Beginnings, by "Two Dogs"

I am a retired Marine Corps officer and Naval Aviator (jets and helicopters), commercial airplane and helicopter pilot, and most recently, an aircraft operations manager for a Federal agency.

I graduated from numerous military schools, including the U.S. Army Airborne (“jump”) School, U.S. Navy Divers School, Army helicopter, and Navy advanced jet schools. In addition, I have attended military “survival” courses whose primary focus was generally short-term survival off the land, escape from capture, and recovery from remote areas.  Like most Marine officers, I attended The Basic School, an 8-month school (only five during the Vietnam era – my case), which is still designed to produce a second lieutenant who is trained and motivated to lead a 35-40 man platoon of Marines in combat.  This course covers everything from field sanitation to squad and platoon tactics, artillery and other ordnance delivery, communications, reconnaissance, intelligence, firearms training, and much more.   Later, I attended the Marine Amphibious Warfare School and the Command and Staff College, both follow-on schools and centered upon the academic study of tactics and strategy as they applied to the missions of the Marine Corps.  I flew helicopters offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and across the U.S. I found out first hand how thoroughly corrupted is the federal bureaucracy and the government, in general.  Not a pleasant experience. I’d rather have been flying. I have bachelor's and master's degrees.

As a result, my wife of forty years and I seem to have been moving endlessly from place-to-place.  Nevertheless, I have tried in each place to do what I could to maintain a level of self-sufficiency for my family that varied greatly with locations and personal finances. My intention here is to try to share some of the less-than-perfect ways that I have tried to accomplish that end. 

Only in the last few years, primarily as a result of the political and fiscal situation in the U.S., have I begun reading some of the huge amounts of literature about how one can prepare for serious long-term off-the-grid survival.  I have found that the preparation required to be ready for that contingency seems to be endless.  I do not want to talk about all of those preparations.  Others have done so very well, and besides, I’m not there, yet.  What I would like to do is to talk to those, perhaps like me, who are not true survivalists in the commonly referred-to sense, but who are genuinely concerned about the future of this country, and might desire, like me, to begin to prepare. Perhaps my elementary and simplistic efforts might be of help to someone else who is beginning to think about the subject of preparedness.  There are many scenarios that might require this, but the two that I am thinking most about are economic collapse and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. I’m building small Faraday boxes, but not doing much else for EMP.

My thinking on begins with my own estimation of the basic problems:  shelter, water, food, fuel, and security.  I view these as the most critical needs, whether living in a tent or other outdoor shelter or here in our rural home in West Virginia. Here I have and often take for granted what I have -- shelter, well water, a small stream, a pond, a rain barrel; canned, dried, frozen, and freeze-dried foods; fuel for the generator and portable stoves, kerosene heater and lanterns; factory-made and reloaded ammunition for any one of several firearms.  Edible plant books. Gardening books. Encyclopedia of Country Living-type books. Reloading books. Hunting books. Tracking books. A few novels devoted to the “what ifs” of the future, including Jim Rawles' excellent "Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse", for example.  Books to fill an entire bookcase.  The Boy Scout Field Book sits right there next to the military survival manuals, as do Tom Brown's Field Guides, the The Foxfire Book series, a canning book, field medical books, and quite a few others.

Those are the basic things about which I think. I have been thinking about them for quite a while, in fact, longer than I even realized.  Perhaps I’ve been thinking about them ever since I was a young lad.   For example, my very first “survival book” was the Boy Scout Field Book, the original of which I still have (circa late-1950s edition). It is still a great reference if one is looking for an all-in-one manual for starting fires, making simple shelters, recognizing game tracks, tying knots, and much more.  I note that it is still available on Amazon.com. (It’s probably been scrubbed to favor the politically correct, but don’t know [JWR Adds: Yes, I can confirm that unfortunately it has been made politically correct--with the traditional woodcraft skills showing any injury to innocent and defenseless trees duly expunged. So I advise searching for pre-1970 editions!] ) One does not necessarily need the SAS Survival Handbook or the U.S. Army survival manual. I have them and have read them. They do cover security problems, but then don’t cover other topics.  Alas, there appear to be no “perfect” manuals, and the Boy Scout Field Book is no exception.  But it’s not a bad beginning. And so I was beginning the journey even before I knew that I was. 

I think that my first education in “survival” came at about fourteen. That’s when I first shot a .30-06, an old [Model 19]03 Springfield. It pretty much rattled my cage.  Mostly, my older brother and I used to track and shoot small animals in the deep woods of Missouri as youngsters.  We were “issued” ten rounds of .22 LR ammo by our father, a retired USAF pilot, to be used in a bolt action, single shot, .22 rifle with open sights.  One would be surprised what that meager handful of loose ammunition could do for one’s choice of shots, one’s ability to be patient in waiting for the shot, and for one’s great satisfaction at having brought home six or eight squirrels for the cooking pot, having used just those ten rounds – and sometimes, but not often, less.  My point is that the knowledge of firearms is, in my view, basic to the notion of preparedness and in surviving in the wild. And it need not be exotic or overly complicated in nature.  One can surely attend modern schools that will teach one to double-tap a cardboard target or silhouette at seven yards with a semi-auto pistol, as well as basic and advanced tactical rifle courses, but very basic survival skill with a rifle can be had without much cost if one is committed to learning the skill and if one disciplines oneself. Start with only one round, and work up from there.  As Col. Jeff Cooper used to say, “Only hits count.”  In a purely off-the-grid survival scenario, I can envision that .22 LR rounds would be very precious, indeed.

Consequently, and even though I own handguns and rifles that will shoot .45 ACP, .44 Magnum/.44 Special, .357 Magnum/.38 Special, .380 ACP, .223, .25-06, .270, 7mm-08, .308, .7.62x39, .30-30, .30-06, and .45-70/.457 WWG Magnum (a wildcat), I shoot a .22 rifle and pistol more than all of the others, combined, and normally at least twice a week. And I’m hoarding them, as well as shooting them.  I have the capability to reload all the calibers (except .22 LR/Magnum, of course) above, as well as shotgun ammo in 12 and 20 gauge. I wasn’t really thinking of “survival” when deciding to do this about twenty years ago, but was interested only in having the capability to shoot more, and to do it more cheaply. Yet it appears that much of that ammo could be used for barter. I had never even considered this until reading some of the recent “survival novels.”

My apologies.  I’ve wandered into the weeds here, as I could do forever on my favorite subject.  Suffice it to say that whatever firearm one chooses – and make no mistake, one is necessary in my opinion -- there are all kinds of reasons to choose one over the other, depending on the situation and the person. One must endeavor to shoot it well. Owning a firearm is of almost no consequence, at all, unless it is properly employed.  Personally, I prefer a M1911 .45 ACP pistol and a 7.62 M1A SOCOM, while my wife is comfortable with the milder .38 [S&W] revolver and 20 gauge. pump shotgun.  I won’t even begin to get into the debate over .223 vs .308 and 9mm vs. .45 ACP.  Suffice it to say that in Vietnam I had the opportunity to see the effects of all of these, and I chose for my own security the .308 and .45 ACP.

Having got my favorite subject out of the way, I’ll talk about one that is likely even more important.  Water.  It is amazing how complicated this can be, and how many choices one has to solve this problem.  I have not yet solved it.  I have put up a rain barrel, and plan to get a couple more.  It’s amazing how rapidly a 55 gallon barrel will fill in even a moderate thunderstorm.  I got mine from Aaron’s Rain Barrels. http://www.ne-design.net/. I’ve camo-painted the first one to make it recede into the bushes that surround it.  

We have a very shallow stream down the hill that I need to dam so that it keeps only about a foot-or-two deep pool for gathering some water. It flows into a large pond, of which we own half (The owner of neighboring property owns the other half.).  But that’s over a hundred-yard trek downhill with empty buckets, and the same distance uphill with full ones.  Now, while that is okay for a backup, in my thinking, because I’m going on 63 years, I prefer to have something closer.  So my next “big” purchase will be a Simple Pump that allows one to drop a pump and pipe though one’s existing well casing down to below water level and extract water by means of a hand pump or DC motor attached to a battery which, in turn, will connect to a solar panel.  This is much, much cheaper than a Solar Jack.  At $1,200 for the hand pump capability (I’ll add on the DC and solar later), it’s a bargain, for me. See: http://www.survivalunlimited.com/deepwellpump.htm.  
I’m not recommending it for anyone, yet, as I haven’t got one. It has plenty of good reviews, and I’m willing to try it.  My apologies, but I am just talking about how I, for one, intend to solve my “water problem.” 

I’ve also started collecting clear plastic soda bottles for use in Solar Disinfection (SODIS), see; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_water_disinfection.  I’ve set up a rack for putting out the bottles in a sunny place.  Again, that’s a backup, but I’ll use it.

I have bought three different water filtering devices, the best of which is the Swiss-made, all-stainless Katadyn Pocket Microfilter.  It works wonders in that shallow stream and pond down the hill.. [JWR Adds: The same Katadyn filter model is available from several SurvivalBlog advertisers. They deserve your patronage first, folks!]

With the exception of the Simple Pump, these solutions are relatively cheap and effective, if not producers of great volume.  So far, they are what I’ve come up with.

I won’t go much into the food problem. It isn’t quite as complicated as the water problem.  I’ve either got to have it [stored], grow it, or kill it.  I’ve started storing all kinds of Mountain House freeze dried #10 cans (with expiration date dates in 2034), two-serving meals from Mountain House (expiration dates circa 2016), and numerous grocery store-type canned foods (expiration a couple years), in addition to dried beans, rice, Bisquick (sealed in plastic bags with desiccant inside), salt, sugar (Domino, which are sold in one-pound plastic tubs), olives, peanuts, wheat, etc.  Basically hit-or-miss, so far.  I need to get this “food problem” organized and do it right.  But it’s a start.  I think we’ve got only about a 60-day supply now, for two.

I’ve got two Coleman two-burner stoves.  One is a butane stove, and the other a dual fuel (white gas or unleaded gas), as well as several small backpacking stoves, the best of which is a MSR Whisperlite International, which uses virtually all fuel (unleaded, white gas, kerosene, diesel, and maybe even corn oil).   I was heavily into backpacking when we were stationed in Hawaii in the late 1970s, and still have all the gear.  After having one knee replacement and hedging doing another, I’ll not be backpacking if I can help it.  Nevertheless, I have two bug-out bags with essentials in them, ready to hit the trail if need be.  I’ve saved up and bought two good Wiggy's bags and a couple of his poncho liners.

Concerning backpacking stuff, I can recommend a book that I read back then called The Complete Walker, by Colin Fletcher. I haven’t read it in at least a decade, but its import is such that I remember much of it.  He emphasizes simplicity in gear.  That is to say, don’t pack a tent if you can get by with a tent fly – which you cannot in cold weather. I’ve still got my old three-season tent, but am saving up for a four-season. And he emphasizes: don’t worry about pounds – worry about ounces.  That is to say, if one is packing tea bags, remove the labels from the bags.  Ounces.  Remove all packaging material unless it is absolutely necessary (usually never). Don’t carry a “mess kit,” nor a knife, fork and spoon set.  A spoon will do (I’ve done it) along with a pocket knife. Now I have so many knives of so many types that I can’t remember them.  Personally, I’d go for a multi-tool.  But it’s heavy.  I never used to carry a weapon while backpacking.  Of course, it was (and is) illegal in Hawaii, but I think one would be remiss in not doing so today.  There was so much good advice in that book that helped me in the USMC, if nothing more than when packing my helicopter before a mission, or a car, trailer, or truck to move across the country.  “Think ounces, not pounds.”  I always think about Mr. Fletcher’s advice when I pack.

Anyway, I think I’ve got the camping stove angle covered in spades.  That is, until the fuel runs out.  Same goes for kerosene heater and lanterns (5).  My plan is to pull out our pellet stove and replace it with a free-standing wood stove.  Pellets are nice, but they must be bought, and the price is getting exorbitant, according to my pocket book.  They likely will be non-existent in a crunch. 

I connected a 12,000 Watt/50amp gasoline generator when we moved into this house nine years ago, as I have with every house in which we’ve lived for the last two decades.  I’ve got it wired through a transfer box to the circuit-breaker panel, a job that I did myself. It works, and it’s safe.  The main reasons for having this were to run the 220V[olt AC] well water pump and to run the refrigerator and our free-standing freezer during power outages.  But I’ve got it wired, anyway, to nearly every circuit in the house, except the other 220V appliances – water heater and heat pump.  It is somewhat selectable. That is to say that I can choose which circuits I want to power by engaging or disengaging the switches on the transfer box.  The problem is that it uses gasoline. So in a long-term outage it would soon become useless.  I’ve had the propane gas company come out to estimate what it would cost to get a dedicated 100 gal propane tank for the generator.  It would be about $500, but then, in addition to the 50+ gallons of gasoline, butane tanks, and white gas that I keep stored in a separate outbuilding, it would make a great explosion when hit with a tracer round.

Which brings me to the subject of security.  We live in a split-level home on about ten acres of forest.  The property is surrounded by other similar-sized properties of seemingly like-minded individuals.  I gleamed this because everyone out here shoots.  The sweet sound of gunfire can be heard at times in a full circle.  West Virginia, at least, has still got its priorities straight in this regard.  But I digress. This is a frame house with half of it below ground in front, but framed in back, which faces the forest.  The forest, itself, is a maze of downed pine trees blown over by the wind, interspersed with small saplings, vines and low brush.  Not a likely avenue of approach for anyone but the most determined.  For those who are determined, the downed trees would make excellent cover and concealment.  So I have a security problem to solve there, as well as at the front. 

I’ve started buying rolls of barbed wire and baling wire.  Unfortunately, I do not have access to dynamite, which we used to be able to buy in a hardware store in the 1960s.  We used it back then to blow stumps while clearing the land for our house.  I am thinking of buying a bunch of used railroad ties to build cover in the back; I’ve thought also of bricks and sandbags.  Problem is we’re reaching the point in all of this where the house would begin to look like a fortress, of sorts, to all but the most ignorant observers.  So there’s a line here concerning security versus “normalcy” that I must cross sooner or later.  Inasmuch as my wife is a few years older than I and is on constant medications, I’m afraid that finding a retreat (if we could even afford one) would be out of the question, as access to doctors, hospital and pharmacy are a necessity. Nevertheless I’ve got the bags packed and gear ready to throw into the pickup (Toyota 4x4 – like to have one of those older model American trucks, but I think they are getting rare, at least around here.  And what there are will likely go to the Cash for Clunkers Program….grumble, grumble. What will they think of next?).

So it looks to me as if we are here for the duration of the crisis, or sooner, if they try to take the guns from my cold, dead hands.  Speaking of, I still have to build a cache or two for guns and ammo and a few other necessities. 

And since I’ve more-or-less made that decision (here for the duration), I’ve thought of organizing the apparently gun-loving neighbors.  I’ve begun to buy walkie-talkies, if not field phones and commo wire.  I’ve got solar panels and several batteries (need to get a mega deep cell or two, however) to run the small battery chargers and the CB radio. My shortwave is up and running.

I will have to wait to talk to the neighbors, whom I rarely see, much less know.  I can just imagine the words that would come out of their mouths if I were to mention to them the notion of forming a security “company” and establishing a perimeter.  “That old retired Marine down the road is nuts!”

So that’s what I’ve got to say.  I do hope it at least stimulates some thought for those who are starting out trying to prepare, as I am.  All of this shows me that one “problem” in this “survival” business leads to several more, and they in turn lead to even more problems.  Lots to do. So I’m glad I’m retired.  I’ve got time to think about it.  If I were rich, I could do a lot more and likely in a far away place, but as it is, we do with what we have.   I have to use the lessons taught to every Marine:  Improvise, Adapt, Overcome.  

Long Live America.  Keep the Faith. - “Two Dogs”, Col. USMCR (ret.) in West Virginia

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Saturday August 8 2009

Underground Survival Shelter Construction and Security--Learn from My Mistakes, by B.B.

In the summer of 1995 I decided to build an underground multipurpose survival shelter. I purchased the book Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson H. Kearney and went to work. If you want to know about shelters and what it will be like living in one, then purchase his book. My brother helped me for a while with the construction, but I did the majority of the work alone and it took me two years to complete the project. Let me say up front that I’m an amateur who used a brilliant book to build a shelter. Along the way I made many mistakes and had some unanticipated problems. Hopefully if you decide to do something along these lines you can learn from my many mistakes.

I purchased used 40 foot x 12foot diameter and 20 foot x 8 foot [galvanized steel ] road culvert pipes. The 20 foot long culvert would be used as the entrance to the larger pipe. The first step of my project was to enclose the ends of the 40’ pipe. In the back I used heavy angle iron to frame the end then 2x12s to enclose it. Welding on galvanized metal was a problem for me so I also bolted the braces to the pipe. When I finished enclosing the end it didn’t look right so I placed black roofing felt over the 2x12s and covered it all with a layer of plywood, painted it and then tarred it. I cut a hole in the back at floor level and inserted a 12’’ plastic pipe into the hole and ran the pipe up to the top for airflow. In the front of the pipe I framed it in with angle iron and just used 2x12s. I used 2x12s so that my front solid core entrance door would be right.

I used metal channel iron to enclose the floor of the pipe. I cut the floor frame channels to the proper length so that the floor was about 8ft in height so that I could walk and not hit my head. I installed a plywood floor and placed 4 foot square inserts in the center that would pull up and out for easy access to the lower level. This lower level gives me 4 foot x 40 foot storage under the floor with 8 feet of headroom on top. Along the sides I used two 2x12s wide for bench seats the entire length of the pipe on both sides. This is more than enough seating and is not in the way when you walk around in the pipe. I don’t want to gloss over this part but it took about a year for me to complete the inside.

After I completed the construction of the pipe I was ready to bury it. To accomplish this I rented a 988 Cat[erpillar brand wheel loader with a excavation bucket] and dug a hole for the 40 foot long section. I then buried it to the proper height so the 8 foot piece would match the door and then buried the whole thing. The 20 foot x 8 foot piece extended out the end far enough to prevent the soil from burying the front door. From the bottom of the pipe to the top of the soil is about 22 feet. After burying everything the front didn’t look right. There wasn’t anyway to secure the entrance to the pipe so I then I built a 20x20 wooden shed on the end to secure the entrance. I placed the pipe west to east so the airflow would work and buried the pipe with about 10ft of earth on top of the main 40-foot pipe being sure to protect the plastic air pipe on the end. The book says you only need three feet of compacted earth to protect you from radiation but 10 feet works for temperature control. [JWR Adds: In my experience, only foot depth of clay or loam soil is required to take full advantage of the ambient ground temperature, at least outside of permafrost zones.] The temperature is constant summer and winter and it is pleasant inside. I checked the level of the ground for drainage and adjusted the drainage away from the entrance.

Alongside my buried pipe shelter I placed a Santa Fe Railroad boxcar for storage. This was the real deal and made of solid metal. I filled the boxcar with lots of stuff that could be used for barter or just be used to keep us comfortable. After loading the boxcar with stuff, as a precaution, I welded the two large solid metal doors shut. The doors slid sideways to open so I felt it wouldn’t take much to prevent them from opening.

After I finished construction, my pipe complex was 80ft long, with a storage boxcar alongside. There was water, food, bedding, clothes, everything I could think of that I might need, I stored in the pipe shelter. There is water close by and I also had 8 - 55 gallon. used white plastic Coca-Cola syrup barrels filled with water inside the pipe. When I open the entrance door and the 12’’ plastic air flow pipe you can feel the air flow but according to the book that isn’t enough air for [very] many people and the book tells you how to increase the airflow for more people. On the right side of the pipe there is electrical plugs for 12 volt DC power and 2 Heavy equipment 12 volt DC batteries for power. On the left side of the pipe is 120 volt AC power [conduit and outlets] to be plugged into a generator.

The boxcar was for extra, non-essential items. My family and I could go to my pipe shelter without bringing anything with us and stay there for at least one year.

Lessons I have learned:
My first and biggest mistake was in believing that my property was secure. There is no possible way to secure property if you aren’t there to secure it. I have 120 acres fenced in and the pipe location is out of sight of the main road. I thought the location was secure but it only took the druggies a couple of years to find it. Once the word got out what was there everything went down hill fast. Now the property is always being broken into and trashed. They will steal anything and everything and then trash the rest. I live in the city and the [unoccupied] pipe [shelter] is 200 miles away from my home in the country. The pipe is located in the middle of my land but it doesn’t matter. (Hindsight) When you use wood to enclose your shelter eventually the Prairie dogs and druggies will find a way into it. 4 Wheeler [ATV]s can go anywhere and they do. Not only did they break into my pipe [shelter] and destroy and steal everything, they used a bumper jack to attach to the bottom of my metal door on my boxcar, jack it out and steal everything they wanted. Then when they had everything worth something they burned the boxcar. The interior walls and floor of a boxcar are lined with heavy wood and burns real hot.

So here is where I am now: I had to rebuild the front of the entrance to the pipe. I originally had some windows in front of my pipe complex to help add a little illumination so I used crusher screen cloth to cover the windows and doors. After the druggies broke into the pipe they left it open and the prairie dogs ruined everything left inside. I have cleaned out everything in the pipe and threw it all away. Now the pipe is empty but at least it is still usable, but my boxcar is a burned-out shell and unusable.

If you want to have a place in the country to escape to Good luck. You have to be there to be able to protect it.
I also buried some plastic 55gal barrels with some extra #10 cans of food in them. They have been in the ground for about 10 yrs and I have learned another lesson. There is enough moisture in the barrels to rust through many of the #10 cans. The barrels didn’t leak water but many of the #10 cans still rusted through. If you want to do something like this dip your cans in wax and that will protect the metal #10 cans from rusting. You can buy lids for 55 gallon barrels that snap on to the top of the barrel. They are thin but if you place a piece of rolled plastic on top of the lid and then some ¾’’ plywood over the top of the barrels they will be fine. Mine were buried on end with about two feet of soil on top. You can bury 8 barrels with a single piece of plywood over them and have a lot of #10 cans of food safely stored in a cool temperature. 10 yrs. of storage isn’t a problem if you store wheat, rice and beans as you can fill in the gaps later with storage easer to get to.
I find that this type of storage in 55gal plastic barrels buried in the ground works for many different things.

[Some information on another topic deleted, for brevity. It will eventually be posted separately.]

I hope this information is helpful. - BB

JWR Adds: I've heard may similar tales about unoccupied retreats being ransacked. BB's experience underscores the oft-repeated need to either:

1.) Live at your retreat year-round, or

2.) Have a retreat caretaker, or

3.) Have a trustworthy year-round resident neighbor that lives in a house with line of sight to your retreat buildings.

Anything less than that cannot be relied on! There is some utility in motion-queued web cams, but there is no sure substitute for the Mark I Human Eyeball. I consider web cams just a good backup, and a means to capture images of would-be burglars and their vehicle license plate numbers.

If it is an underground shelter, then you might get away with a completely hidden entrance. Typically, this is done with a large scrap/junk pile. (Two of my consulting clients have done this, thusfar with several years of success.) Although it is labor intensive to remove, the "scrap pile camouflage" technique is fairly practical for a property that you visit only infrequently. But all it takes is just one untrustworthy person that knows about the shelter's existence to make this approach ineffective. (The goblins will keep looking until the find the entrance.)

Given enough time, miscreants can reduce just about any obstacle to entry to an unoccupied and unobserved structure. They will come back with a cutting torch or even a backhoe, given enough time!

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Saturday August 1 2009

City Data as a Retreat Locale Search Tool

SurvivalBlog Readers:
Are you trying to find small towns to evaluate for potential relocation? I've been wrestling with the process and have found it tedious at best. There is a web site, however, that can be a valuable resource: City Data. If you follow this link you will come to a page that has the states listed. Click on the state you are interested in Idaho, for example. This link takes you to a list of cities with a population over 6,000. There is a link at the top of the page that lists towns and villages with a population between 1,000 and 6,000. Follow that link and your are presented with a list of towns and their population (Bovill and Troy are under 1,000). When you select a town it will display detailed demographics (try Orofino). While the amount of detail varies, it contains a wealth of data that we are interested in. In general you will at least find population, gender, age, ethnicity, education, and income statistics. Some pages also contain information about occupation (is this a farming town?) the nearest medical facilities, population density, distance to major population centers, crime, climate, local government and more. It is a fantastic starting place to refine the search for your ideal location. - Scrod

JWR Replies: It has been several years since City Data web site has been mentioned in SurvivalBlog. It is still a good one! I also like the Moving.com web site's relative cost comparison calculator.

OBTW, take a look at this population density map of the US, Mexico, and Canada. Sometimes a picture truly does tell a thousand words. And on a global scale, The Human Footprint Composite Map hosted by NASA's web site is similarly enlightening.

See my Recommended Retreat Areas static page for some detailed retreat locale suggestions. And even greater detail (including some useful maps) is available in my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation". OBTW, although it is now a bit dated, I also recommend the book Strategic Relocation by Joel Skousen.

Choosing a retreat locale is a not a "one size fits all" process. A lot of your decision making will be predicated on your work and family situation, your stage in life, and your preference for a particular climate. Differences in gun laws are important to many SurvivalBlog readers. (See Boston's Gun Bible by Boston T. Party, for a detailed state-by-state comparison.) Taxes are another determining factor. For some of us, property taxes are more important than income taxes.
I suggest prayer and extensive study before traveling to look for retreat property.

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Monday July 27 2009

Community Disaster Recovery--Asking the Right People the Right Questions

I was pleased to see this post over at the Mountain Steps blog: A letter to our county commissioner about emergency preparation for hyperinflation. It is commendable to make such inquiries, but it is essential to ask detailed questions. Especially when contacting elected officials, vague, general questions tend to elicit vague, general answers, and hence most likely no action will be taken.

It is also essential that you do some research first, to direct your inquiry letter or phone call to the right individuals. Flunkies don't create or change policy, they just implement it. You need to direct your letter to someone that has the authority to make policy, and has the budget to implement it. (In some cases, this will mean separate contacts to whomever controls the purse strings.)

I recommend that you ask detailed questions, such as:

Do you have a back-up generator, and how many days of fuel do you keep on hand? What is your contingency plan to implement before that fuel runs out?

Can you continue to operate without grid power? If not, then what contingency plans do you have?

Is the city's water supply gravity fed, from end to end? If not, then what contingency plans have been put in place to provide water to utility customers, in the event of a grid power interruption longer than 48 hours?

And ask:

Are electrically-pumped filters used, or traditional gravity filters?

Then, if you discover that the water system is mostly via gravity, but it uses electric pumps only for pressurized filtration, then ask: If electrically-pumped filters are used, then has a disaster contingency waiver been established with the USEPA, (for turbidity and other standards), to allow bypassing of filters in the event of a grid-down emergency situation?

Similarly detailed letters or phone inquiries should be made to your local irrigation district, your fire department, power utility, phone companies (both cellular and land line), refinery, hospital, kidney dialysis clinic, coal mine, National Guard, grocery store, et cetera.

Do not expect the grid to magically stay up and running, Assume the worst case, and plan accordingly.

OBTW, one key word to search for when estimating the resiliency of your community's infrastructure is co-generation. Find out where the co-gen plants are, and their capacity!

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Thursday July 23 2009

Letter Re: A Multiple Family Retreat -- Lessons Learned The Hard Way

Dear Mr. Rawles:
I have been following several good reader contributions including “Bug Out At the Last Minute” arguments versus those who consider “Early Relocation” and most recently “A Multiple Family Retreat—Lessons Learned the Hard Way” in regards to the most expeditious and efficient way to set up a self-sufficient retreat. While I understand that some folks are just simply unable to make a full time commitment in setting up a retreat, I also know that there are many—while there are still the comforts of life available (television, readily available food and gasoline)—that are unwilling to make the sacrifice necessary to prepare for any pending manmade or natural disaster(this include members of my extended family who are living what they consider the “good life” but I am sure will be on our doorstep WTSHTF) From my family’s experience, if one is not practicing what they preach…i.e. actually learning by trial and error and doing what one plans to do when the time come, then no matter how much one has prepared—stocking food supplies, buying “Seeds in a Can”, or planning to bug out with everything but the kitchen sink—then there will most certainly be a very steep learning curve to be had. Believe me, my husband and I have made many mistakes, but because we are also willing to sacrifice, after five years have reached the level of preparedness WTSHTF! In fact, it is best to get to a prepared lifestyle so WTSHTF, such events are just a mere bump in the road for your family.

With my parents we purchased 110 acres of fertile land, with two running streams, a spring, and two ponds 100 miles away from the nearest “Metro Mess”. There are several vibrant and viable little towns within driving or even walking distance for that matter. These towns are very close knit and some would call them “clannish” because everyone seems to be related to everyone else. We bought the land 10 years ago, but starting living on it full time 5 years ago.

Most people would think this is the perfect setup. We think it is, however, please allow me the opportunity to expand on what I mean “Practicing what you preach” because our journey to where we are today did not come by just planning, but by doing.

1. The Land - Pros: Good land, sandy loam, available water. Cons: Just as the veggies like the soil, so do the weeds! If we do not pull weeds everyday, they seem to come back double within the week. Additionally, despite all the attractive pictures on the veggie packets and promises that they will grow, I have learned what will grow in my particular location and what will not grow. Although we live in zone 7, in my particular location it is not uncommon to have a late hard killing freeze the end of April. I still have fruit trees, but lost all of the fruit this year. I also know what types of vegetables will grow and which ones will not. This was not learned by planning to do it in the future when it is necessary, but over a trial and error five-year period. Is this a process that one wants to learn when one really needs it, or instead by practicing what you intend to do, so that you are up to speed when the time comes as disaster strikes? It means having on hand all the tools and supplies needed, and this was only learned by doing before hand.

2. The Livestock - Pros: A ready food source or beasts of burden. Cons: They are reliant on you for their well being. Chickens get eaten by varmints or neighbors dogs if one is not careful, animals need daily care—whether from you, or someone else if you are away for a time—they get sick and hurt, get into a neighbor’s pasture, etc. If you plan to eat chickens for example, then you must learn how to kill them and dress them properly. Believe me, all these things are not something one needs to learn when it is truly necessary, but is only learned by doing before hand.

3. The Farmstead and accompanying equipment—Pros: This goes without saying. Cons: If one is not a handyman, or DIY, then learn anyway you can! Metal roofs blow off, water well pumps stop working, trees fall on things that they are not supposed to, wild fires and floods, etc. It is just not a matter of “Calling someone” to fix these things because out in rural areas, it is assumed that everyone knows how to take care of these things. One can only know what tools they will need for their particular situation by practicing and experimenting—remember an electric dehydrator for preserving food, or a wide screen tv will not be useful when there is no electricity. Our family got rid of cable/satellite tv (no time to watch it other than a rental movie every once in a while) but, we still have satellite Internet service—the best source for alternative news like SurvivalBlog. I am learning to can with a pressure cooker and preserve food that we grow. All these things are learned by doing.

4. The Job—My husband and I both had jobs in the city when we bought our land. Before we moved from the Metro Mess, we scaled back and paid off as much debt as possible, and saved as much as possible. When we finally moved to our land we commuted to our jobs for three years, 1,000 miles a week. That meant going to bed promptly at 9 p.m. in order to get up at 3:30 to feed the animals and be on the road by 5 a.m. for our 200 mile round-trip trek. My husband retired to work on the farm full time, and as soon as I was able, I found a teaching job in one of the small towns. I taught for two years in this position, but now our homestead is able to generate enough income, plus what we have saved, for me to resign my teaching position. Is this difficult to do? Yes, it takes sacrifice and ignoring the naysayers who may think that you are a little crazy. But again, sacrifice is only gained by doing.

5. The Local People—The only way to get to know the locals is by living amongst them. I do not mean this in a negative way by any means. I have heard many other new homesteaders complain that the locals are tough nuts to crack, and in our situation, everyone is related to everyone else, so of course there is some suspicion to any newcomer. However, the only way that you can become a successful member of a community is by doing and being there. Of course expect hostility WTSHTF and you just “show up” We became part of the community by worshiping at the local church, teaching Sunday school, joining civil organizations, enrolling our children in the schools, etc. When a church member broke his back in a fall, we were there helping his wife with the farm chores. When a massive wild fire rolled through the area this spring, we were there helping evacuate horses. Of course they will talk about you…this is just a fact of life in a small town…however, the church was full when my brother—who nobody knew because he lived out of state—died and was buried in the church cemetery…all of our friends who had become our family were there for US. This did not happen overnight, but by the nurturing relationships and sacrifice…turn off the boob tube and get to know your neighbors. Also, it is through the locals that we know how to butcher and garden, as well as get things like milk and grains. I can also defend myself and our property because a retired police officer gave us the proper training. We have a pretty good barter system going, and again, this did not happen by planning, but by doing.

Now, as I stated earlier, I know that there are many people out there that do not have a choice, and are doing the best that they can to prepare and I pray for you. However, I also know that there are just as many people who are unwilling to work hard and sacrifice so when the time comes, they will be scrambling to get themselves in a better plan, and with possible dire results. Please, if at all possible, try to get to your ultimate retreat before you really need it. Learn not by planning, but by doing and Practicing What You Preach! God Bless, - SHM

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Wednesday July 22 2009

Six Letters Re: Self-Sufficiency in England? Take the Gap

Hello Mr. Rawles,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my previous e-mail. I must confess your original post on your blog and your reply left me feeling somewhat bothered and a little defensive. I have been mulling this over all day and deep down I know the reason why, it's because you are absolutely 100% right.

My wife who makes my world go round could not leave her family, my son who has special needs is receiving very specialist care locally, my community, friends and neighbours who have worked this land for generations rely on me for support and will come to rely on my specialist skills come TEOTWAWKI. This is the hand of cards I have been dealt, idealistic young fool I may be, but I cannot abandon my family, friends and country.

There may be a die-off, there may be wars, unspeakable hardships and suffering but I have to do the best I can for all my people and for the sake of our country,a country that may be currently on the skids but it is still a country that generations of our fathers, brothers and sons have fought and toiled for.

I could be just as easily shot and killed as an outsider in New Zealand, Belize, or Idaho come TEOTWAWKI, if I am going to meet my maker I would rather do it with the respect of myself and my loved ones, knowing that I did not abandon them in their hour of need.

Keep up the good work Mr. Rawles, I will continue to read and enjoy your blog. - Handyman

Sir,
Having been an avid reader of your superb blog from the very beginning, I would like to thank you and all the contributors for an invaluable resource. It’s my computer’s homepage and is the first thing read every day.

Your forecast for the probable scenario post-TEOTWAWKI, or even mini-TEOTWAWKI seems pretty accurate, although the population figure you give [for England] is out-of-date. As of mid-2007 we were at almost 61,000,000 and counting. Soon to be standing room only, it seems. [JWR Adds: Just to clarify, the population of all of the UK was 61 million in 2007. Wikipedia says 51 million is the correct figure for just England.]

So I was right with the 51 million figure. The only good news is that if you consider Scotland, the population density for the entirety of the UK is much lower. Not that Scotland has the most agreeable climate. I'll update that letter accordingly.

Despite living in as near to the middle of nowhere as is possible in these crowded isles, my family and I have been planning our G.O.O.D. from the UK for some time. I’m happy to say that the new place [in the Mediterranean region] is now up and running and we are spending 50% of our time there, (soon to be 100%).

Some things we learned during our relocation exercise:

· It seems, if the television programmes on the subject are to be believed, that some people, after a two-week trip to some exotic location, decide on the spur of the moment to move there – and do just that. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that falls under the ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’ caveat, aka the ‘P7’ rule. Please, please, please, think it through and do your research.

· Where ever you may roam, you take yourself there. Sit yourselves down and think deeply about what you want to do, where you want to go, what you want when you get there, and what you will need to make it happen. If you are running away from something, don’t be surprised if you find it at the end of your journey, sat waiting for you. Running towards something on the other hand..

· I cannot stress this enough: Do your homework. This applies if you are relocating to the next county or the other side of the world. Do not be seduced by picturesque views and/or sales talk. One of the nicest locations we saw on a previous move has appeared on national (UK) television many times; sadly, due to its propensity to flooding several times a year. Fortunately we had looked into it and bought higher ground, elsewhere. The Internet is your friend here, but does not remove the need for feet on the ground and genuine field research.

· Once you’ve identified your chosen location, do yet more research and find the right spot. I will not preach to the choir about the need for fertile soil, water, politics, etc, but would say, as we found to our cost, that sometimes people can be mistaken in their beliefs, if not downright economical with the truth. Check your information, then check it again. It cost us in the region of 5,000 Euros and counting for failing to check an item.

· Allow a realistic timescale for your move. Our (hopefully) ultimate G.O.O.D. exercise involved a change of country, for which we had allowed five years to achieve. It’s going on seven now and whilst installed, we are still commuting internationally and hoping not to get caught up in the Swine Flu snafu whilst in transit. It’s not all been bad news though, the delay has allowed time to improve language skills and inventory, and my good lady has developed a fearsomely accurate eye with her new Benelli. (Sadly, Messrs. Mossberg & Remington are hard to come by out at our location, but the Italian job is a nice, if expensive alternative). It is also pleasing to know that ownership of same does not make one automatically suspect in the eyes of the law or the local politically correct set (whom, I am glad to report, have not found their way here yet).

· Be aware, be very aware that even a short move can result in you finding yourself in a much different culture. This is as true of village/small-town life as it is if you change countries. Be prepared for things being done differently. Many countries prefer the mañana philosophy to the Protestant Work Ethic and this can be incredibly frustrating for some. I personally know of several wannabe ‘GOODers’ who have given up in sight of the finish line due to their inability or unwillingness to adapt to local conditions. If you cannot or will not adapt, then please, stay where you are. (I appreciate this sentiment doesn’t generally apply to ‘our type’ of folk, but if you prefer to be dreamer, save yourself a lot of hassle and money, just don’t..). Similarly, many of these out of the way locations reputedly use the ‘small brown envelope’ method of getting things done. I cannot of course possibly comment on this, but YMMV.

· Render unto Caesar.. This probably should go under the ‘culture’ paragraph, but I think it’s worthy of its own piece. You might not fully understand local bureaucracy – indeed if in a foreign country, with a different language, you probably never will, but it is no excuse in the eyes of the law. If nothing else, find out how, when and where to pay your taxes – and make sure you do. I am told the impound lot for our location is literally full to overflowing with foreign vehicles because owners neglected to pay local taxes on them. (And this is a small, rural location). Remember, the nail that stands out gets hammered down and one presumes under the current financial conditions that this can only get worse. It’s bad enough to lose your pick-up, but your home?

So far, the move has proven the right thing to do. We are totally off-grid and re-learning the joys of septics, generators and, until the well is bored, tanked water.

High on the list is a solar PV set up. We could have held off moving till this was installed, but decided that being there was the number one priority. Given the climate, electricity is not a priority here in the summer, except perhaps for ice and the winters are typically much milder than the UK, so we feel our genset will more than suffice for the time being.

Getting used to the new way of life is fun and challenging at the same time. One thing we have found, is that working full-time in the summer sun of the southern Mediterranean is very different than sitting on a sunbed sipping a beer! Perhaps the man who invented the siesta was not so crazy after all.

In conclusion, if you do decide to take the gap, be aware that it’s not something to do lightly, but it can be done and is more than worth the effort. - Michael

Jim,
As the only military-experienced "beans, bullets and band aids"-type survivalist who shows up at the local weekly Peak Oil meetings, I can say there's a lot of Transition Town stuff going on. It spun-off from Post-Peak Oil groups.

I made the effort to avoid all the Transition Town stuff a long time ago. It mostly consists of retirement age hippies-turned-yuppies-turned-retirees, trying to be do-gooders. I'm just a fellow Army intel guy who's done his own extensive research with regards to Peak Oil (to include fusion between various sources, researchers, etc.), and have been prepping accordingly. After all, we did hit the global peak in liquid fuels extraction in June, 2008. Judging from the shape of this peak mathematically, in addition to the plateau we've been at (there have been a lot of head-fakes since 2005), along with the continuing depletion rates of the current 54 oil fields around the planet that are now in decline (source: TheOilDrum.com), this one looks for real (some are politically intentional slow-downs in production, I have to admit).

I've noticed that all the transition town types have no preps to speak of, and are clueless about preparedness in general, and "don't believe in survivalism".

"We're all going to sing kumbaya in our little communities (which only exist in their minds, BTW) and grow cute little green things, but we're not going to store anything" (one of them even had the audacity to ask me about getting a firearm. Again, I mainly hooked-up with Post-Peak Oil in order to learn how to grow food organically, and have learned a lot, and made some good friends). I have to admit though, that the movement has been growing in the US.

There's a certain British Transition Town expert who has been assisting Post-Peak Oil in this area, and I've asked him specifically, "Does Totnes actually feed itself?" Does Totnes generate its own electrical power?" I've never gotten a straight answer from him, just "well, kind of, sort of, not yet..."

Then what exactly is a Transition town? I'm going to be making sure my friends from Post-Peak Oil get your post.

Keep-up the good work. My wife was part of Book Bomb Day, back in April: One copy for me, one for her father: An old, Mel Tappan type, who had not even previously known about SurvivalBlog. - J.E.

 

Hello From Ireland,
My wife and I were delighted to see the article on England and your advise to leave for more lightly populated areas of the globe.

Things in England might be bad but here in Ireland things are worse. The economy is in tatters, taxes are being raised, people are advised to avoid getting pregnant because of swine flu. There are talks of keeping schools closed after the summer holidays to avoid the spread of the swine flu so that a vaccine program can be administered, even though we all know there isn't a vaccine available yet. The
unemployment rate is 12% and our brilliant Government inform us it will go to 20%.

The population density is 180/sq mile, knife and gun laws are unbelievable ( I have been waiting six months for a license for a .22 rifle even though I have no criminal record and served three years in the Reserve Defence Force performing security details several times at a major airport with a weapon loaded with live ammunition) sad to say it is possible to get a gun illegally within 24 hours. Pistols are now illegal, because the drug gangs were shooting each other with pistols, despite the fact that no one was ever killed with a legally held pistol. The gang crime here is at level comparable to what was seen in [cities in] the USA in the 1970s. Our Police are retiring at a rate of 45 per month (the maximum size of the force was 12,000) and because of the recession they are not being replaced with recruits, and best of all a Government report advises the closure of half of the country's Police Stations.

My American Wife and myself (Irish) are making plans to get the hell out of Dodge we are looking at Northern Scandinavia as the best option for a place to escape before it all goes very bad here. There are several other Irish people who think the same as ourselves and are making their own escape plans. We would welcome your comments on our choice of location. - INNUKSUK Survival, County Limerick, Ireland.

Jim,
Although I very much agree that UK residents should, if possible, move overseas, I nonetheless believe that due to financial, residency requirements and other reasons, not everyone will be able to leave the UK to relocate in America, NZ or elsewhere. For those people, there remains the option of what I believe is one of the best retreat locations within the European Union: north of the Great Glen in Scotland. Specifically, I view the lower lying (farmable) terrain along the west coast and islands as being best suited to this purpose.

The benefits are, from my various sorties to study the region:

1. One of lowest population densities in western Europe.

2. Both distance (by UK standards!) and formidable mountainous barriers between the region and the large urban centers of Glasgow, Edinburgh and the east coast. Its isolation reduces its allure as a target for roaming urbanite gangs, a point even more applicable to the likes of [The Isle of] Skye which, during the days of the conflicts between the Lords of the Isles and the Stewarts, was so shielded by the Highlands wilderness that the king had to send his fleet from the east coast around the north of Scotland to attack them by sea. Even on the Great Britain mainland, the Knoydart region has no road access from the rest of Scotland; it can only be reached by 2 day hike or by sea. Something to bear in mind in a modern grid down scenario.

3. A largely conservative indigenous population, quietly distrustful of modern ways.

4. There are numerous small semi self-reliant communities dotted throughout the region, many of which are used to taking in idealist outsiders seeking refuge from the madding crowds.

5. Whereas the interior of the Highlands can have very severe winters with prolonged periods of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, the lower portions of the west coast are relieved by mild Atlantic currents providing a lenient maritime microclimate.

6. A hunting and outdoors culture. There are so many red deer in the region now that some locals are calling for the wolf to be reintroduced to reduce their numbers.

On the down side:

1. Isolation comes at a price; in good weather, it can take the best part of two hours to get to Inverness or Fort William from the west coast or [from the Isle of] Skye. In winter, you may have to wait longer until a storm ends or a snow plow comes along. Bad news if you need urgent medical treatment which, for now, can be circumvented by emergency helicopter missions undertaken by the military.

2. Strict Reformed Christians, who are considerable in number in the region, frown upon many activities that outsiders take for granted; for instance, their observance of the Sunday Sabbath in some cases compels them to pull a chair from the table rather than push it away, as the former mode is seen as less like work than the latter. So digging your garden or hanging clothes on a line on a Sunday would be a good way to alienate them. On the other hand, their lax attitude towards alcohol consumption will surprise teetotaling Christians from outside.

3. There is an undercurrent of lingering resentment towards the English who are still blamed for the infamous Highland Clearances. There is perhaps an outside chance of the odd Englishman becoming the local "expendable gringo" come TEOTWAWKI.

4. The quality of the soil is generally not great, although it is nonetheless possible with assistance from compost to grow a considerable amount of vegetables. Sturdy stock fencing is a must, due to the deer menace. Also, I am told that eagles account for high losses in spring lambs.

5. Self sufficient farming comes under a lot of petty scrutiny from over eager bureaucrats; for instance, it is illegal to help someone else butcher livestock on their holding; you can only do it to your own cattle on your own land.

6. And of course, like the rest of the UK, gun ownership is insanely regulated.

7. Scottish law and conveyancing practices are alien to those in the rest of the UK. Also, property prices tend to be very high, as are property taxes. I know someone who left the Highland to live in France because he couldn't bear the property taxes.

8. Summertime sees the area swamped with hillwalkers and tourists from all over Europe, many of whom are drawn to the quaint coastal communities and who may note ongoing self-sufficiency preparations for later reference.

Overall then, it's very far from perfect but nevertheless presents perhaps an emergency, last minute kind of option for those who don't think they have the wherewithal to make a bigger jump.

Finally, [for an illustration of the high population density,] see the photos of Europe from space at night. Kind regards, - Jay W.

 

Mr. Rawles,
Greetings from England. Having read "Patriots" from cover to cover many times and long been a devotee of your blog I do regard you as being one of the foremost experts in the world of preparation for TEOTWAWKI situations. However, I do have some queries with some points on your recent article regarding a SHTF situation in England.

While I appreciate that for some people it is the best option to emigrate, what practical advice would you have for people who emigration would not be possible? We are part of a well armed (many shotguns, Deer stalking rifles, .22 LRs, crossbows, compound bows etc.) rural community, that even with our climate produces more food than we could ever eat, in a defendable location, many locals are ex-military and our population is sufficient that there could be workers and soldiers.

Regarding moving abroad, Is not one of the golden rules of survival not to become a refugee or an outsider? It can take a long time to fully integrate into a community and be accepted, I believe that the threat of TEOTWAWKI is upon us now and in many places we would be regarded as "outsiders" or "foreigners". Belize was one of the options you put forward as a possible place to emigrate to, having worked for 18 months all over Belize I know enough about the people, the crime level, the corruption and the various factions to know that maybe that is not the best idea in the world. In a SHTF scenario there is not enough British troops there to protect it's interests and Belize is quite low down on the British Governments list of priorities.

Your advice and thoughts would be appreciated. - Handyman

JWR Replies: Your town might be the exception to the rule. One key question: How many miles from a major city is your town, and is it on a major highway? Or is it "off the beaten track" , away from refugee lines of drift? That could make a crucial difference in whether or not your town would be overwhelmed by refugees in a societal collapse.

Another consideration is counting the roads into the town. If you are fortunate, the geography will be favorable, limiting the avenues of approach. But in open farming country, there are usually numerous access roads. In a worst case scenario, how many roadblocks would have to be manned? Think through the number of defenders that would be required to maintain 24/7/360 security.

I only mentioned "...or perhaps Belize" for folks that already have friends or relatives that live there, and that you preferably already speak Spanish. Granted, you'd be considered an outsider, but Belize still has a very class-conscious society. Because of this, land owners--regardless of their origin--are generally held in esteem. I'd be more worried about criminals crossing the porous border with Guatemala, than about your next door neighbors.

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Monday July 20 2009

Self-Sufficiency in England? Take the Gap

One of my readers sent me this news item from southwestern England: Announcing the Release of ‘Can Totnes and District Feed Itself?’. That got me thinking. Perhaps they can feed themselves. But if things fall apart, how can they feed the Golden Horde from Bristol, Bournemouth, Plymouth, Poole, Gloucester, Cheltenham, Bath, Exeter, Swindon, Torbay, and the other cities of southern England? And let's not forget greater London. Most of those city dwellers will want to head for "the countryside", but how many urban refugees can the small towns absorb?

Parenthetically, I'll mention that the Rawles family name originated from southwest England, not too far from Totnes. (Well, actually a bit farther west, in eastern Cornwall.) My progenitor left England around 1700, in part because he considered it "crowded." That was when the nation's population was under 6 million people. It is now more than 51 million. (To give American readers a sense of scale: That is roughly the combined population of California and New York, but all shoehorned into an area the size of the state of Alabama. Yikes! That does not provide a great prospect for self-sufficiency--especially if sans grid power. I wonder what my gr.gr.gr.gr.gr.grandfather John William Rawles would have thought about the modern-day self-sufficiency conjecture in Devonshire? He'd probably advise being on a tall ship on the next tide.

There are several thousand SurvivalBlog readers in England. My advice for any of you that are genuinely concerned about preparedness and self-sufficiency: Take the Gap. As I've just illustrated, the demographics are against you. The climate is also against you. (It is a cold, wet climate.) The gun and knife laws are increasingly against you. So face it: Your chances of surviving a grid-down collapse are quite slim in England. If anything, the nation is a prime candidate for a tremendous die-off, possibly to pre-1700 level population levels. (That would be a self-sufficient population level!)

Even if you live way out near the Brecon Beacons or in the Yorkshire Dales and have James Herriott's family for your next door neighbors, there just isn't enough "countryside" to go around. In a true "worst case", every town and village will get mobbed by the yobs. My advice is straightforward and perhaps a bit blunt: You should emigrate to a lightly-populated corner of the United States, New Zealand, or perhaps Belize, as soon as possible. By doing so, you'll dramatically increase your family's chances of survival, and you'll also enjoy greater personal liberty.

The Peak Oil crowd--both in the US and in the UK--is well-intentioned, intelligent, and articulate. It is also sadly predominated by folks that are hopelessly naive. It is all well and good to talk about farmer's markets, sustainable agriculture, green technology, and kumbaya. But we live in the real world, where if the lights go out, it won't take too long for people to get hungry and start hunting two-legged big game. And in England, where there are few guns, and the few there are predominantly owned illegally by gangsters rather han legally owned by the good folk. So the self-defense equation will come down to nothing but brute force. Take my advice and take the gap!

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Letter Re: Some Details on the High Altitude EMP Threat

Mr. Rawles,
Within our Christian survivalist group in Washington State, we use your novel Patriots, as a primer for friends. Keep up the great job you do.

Please consider the following statement with your readers. I believe that an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack by satellite can happen to the U.S. without any notice at all, and many nations already have the satellites in order to produce the end result. This is not meant to scare, but just an observation on how our great country can be taken back to the 1800s technology and a Third World country economic level, in a microsecond. Please consider my train of thought on this line of reasoning which I send you. I think you "have" to agree that this method is so, so simple.

Can the U.S. be hit without any notice whatsoever by an EMP attack? Yes, and the answer is in the line of thinking to follow. Before you can read this reasoning statement post to it's conclusion, we could be back to the 1800s in technology. And by the Congressional report of 2008, 90% of Americans could be dead in 12 months [following a nationwide EMP attack.]

I just didn't realize how many satellites were orbiting the earth at 200 miles up and from so many different nations until today.

Another question to ask oneself: Does another country hate the U.S. to the extent to want to destroy us? Yes, several nations.

Can EMP be delivered by [a nuclear weapon onboard] an already existing and orbiting satellite to devastate our economy? The answer is yes. We’re on borrowed time, preppers.

For a comprehensive assessment of likely damages to electronics equipment and electrical infrastructure, see the 2008 Critical National Infrastructures Report written by the EMP Commission of the Federal government.

A cataclysmic attack throws the United States back to the dark ages, with no electricity, no communication or transportation networks, and no medicines. The most vulnerable members of society—the very young and the very old—begin to die off first, but soon hundreds of thousands of people, and then millions of people, begin dying. Rogue bands of lawless predators, living by rule of force rather than by rule of law, prey on weakened communities. The government, crippled, can’t come to anyone’s rescue. And all it takes is a single bomb detonated high above the atmosphere, two hundred miles above the continental United States.

At first thought, it might seem far-fetched to imagine a single bomb wiping out the entire country. But it wouldn’t be the power of the explosion, per se, that would cause the problem. Instead, the real problem would be the EMP generated by the explosion. Traveling at the speed of light, the EMP would act like an enormous ripple in the earth’s electromagnetic field. As that ripple hits electrical systems, it would get coupled and be way beyond anything hat a typical circuit breaker could handle. William R. Forstchen, the author of the popular novel One Second After in an article titled "EMP 101" A Basic Primer & Suggestions for Preparedness writes of high altitude EMP: “This energy surge will destroy all delicate electronics in your home, even as it destroys all the major components all the way back to the power company’s generators and the phone company’s main relays,” Forstchen writes. “In far less than a millisecond, the entire power grid of the United States, and all that it supports will be destroyed.” And if the power grid goes, then everything goes.

In July 1962, a 1.44 megaton United States nuclear test in space, 400 km (250 miles) above the Pacific Ocean, called the Starfish Prime test, demonstrated to nuclear scientists that the magnitude and effects of a high altitude nuclear explosion were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link

According to Wikipedia, there are several major factors control the effectiveness of a nuclear EMP weapon. These are:
1. The altitude of the weapon when detonated;
2. The yield and construction details of the weapon;
3. The distance from the weapon when detonated;
4. Geographical depth or intervening geographical features;
5. The local strength of the Earth's magnetic field.

A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) article stated that an EMP "can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. A large device detonated at 400–500 km (250 to 312 miles) over Kansas would affect all of the continental U.S. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point.

Could a Satellite with a nuclear payload already be orbiting Earth? So let’s ask the question, do any satellites orbit at 200 miles above Earth and how many countries have satellites at that altitude? Look at North Korea and Iran, Why are they so interested in building small-scale nuclear missiles? Only one model fits. Forstchen says: ”It’s the fact that the U.S. is so vulnerable that our enemies are even contemplating such an attack." Iran is in the space race. North Korea is in the space race.

Earth is ensnared today in a thick spider web of satellite orbits. Satellites with different assignments fly at different orbital altitudes. Russian and American navigation satellites orbit from 100 to 300 miles altitude. Civilian photography satellites, such as the American Landsat and the French SPOT, orbit at altitudes ranging from 300 to 600 miles. American NOAA and Russian Meteor weather satellites are at these same altitudes.

Does this seem too difficult for other nations? No. Just load up your nuclear weapon payload, orbit it as long as desired, and then hit the button when the satellite is above Kansas.

If Osama bin Laden - or the dictators of North Korea or Iran - could destroy America as a twenty-first century society and superpower, would they be tempted to try? Given their track records and stated hostility to the United States, we have to operate on the assumption that they would. That assumption would be especially frightening if this destruction could be accomplished with a single attack involving just one high yield nuclear weapon, and if the nature of the attack would mean that its perpetrator might not be immediately or easily identified. Unfortunately, such a scenario is not far-fetched. Frank Gaffney, in an essay titled: "EMP: America's Achilles' Heel" wrote: "...a report issued last summer by a blue-ribbon, Congressionally-mandated commission, a single specialized nuclear weapon delivered to an altitude of a few hundred miles over the United States by a ballistic missile would be "capable of causing catastrophe for the nation." The source of such a cataclysm might be considered the ultimate "weapon of mass destruction" (WMD) - yet it is hardly ever mentioned in the litany of dangerous WMDs we face today."

JWR Replies: Iran and North Korea are currently developing fission bombs, not fusion (hydrogen) bombs. A large fission bomb would produce an order of magnitude less EMP than a typical fusion bomb. High Altitude (space-based) EMP with a hydrogen bomb is presently a capability of only a handful of nation states. China is the biggest threat, in my opinion. As for fusion bombs concealed inside satellites, that is conceivable, notwithstanding the Space-Based weapons treaty. (The US and the former Soviet Union were signatories, but China was not.)

In my opinion, of far greater concern is EMP from a nuclear bomb on-board an aircraft. Assuming detonation at a high altitude, detonated suicidally, inside the aircraft, rather than being dropped) that would provide a broad line of sight (LOS) for EMP to provide a "footprint" radius of perhaps more than 200 miles, and far beyond line of sight (BLOS) indirect EMP coupling (via power lines and telephone cables) to a much larger radius. I first discussed LOS calculation for EMP in SurvivalBlog back in October of 2005, and I wrote the following more detailed piece in April 2007. Since it is relevant, I'll post it here again:

The [LOS] answer is both easy and impossible to determine. Let me explain. First, the easy part. The basic line of sight (LOS) footprint range calculation is really simple. It is essentially the same as the calculation that is used to determine the maximum effective range for a VHF or UHF radio onboard an aircraft. Referring back to one of my unclassified notebooks from my Electronic Warfare (5M) course at Fort Huachuca, I find: Assuming level terrain, the maximum potential radius of LOS in nautical miles (nmi) = square root of the emitter's altitude (in feet) x 1.056. Hence, that would be 149.3 nmi at 20,000 feet above sea level (ASL), or 191.8 nmi at 33,000 feet ASL. (A typical jet or C-130's service ceiling.) SurvivalBlog reader "Flighter" mentioned: "...some of the larger business jets such as the Airbus ACJ, Gulfstream, Challenger, and Citation are certificated to fly at or above 41,000 feet. The Sino Swearingen SJ30, is perhaps the highest flyer with a certificated ceiling of 49,000 feet. Hypothetically, a dangerous parabolic flight profile could with supplemental oxygen for the flight crew and perhaps even supplemental JATO rockets might push apogee to 75,000 feet in a few aircraft models. (Hey, it would be a suicidal flight anyway.) That is probably the highest altitude that could be expected for a terrorist to touch off a nuke--at least in the near future. That would equate to a footprint with a 280 mile radius. Oh, yes, they might also get really creative and use an unmanned balloon. (The word's record for those was 51.82 km (170,000 feet / 32.2 miles) But that is highly unlikely. What is likely? A ground level detonation. The EMP footprint of fission bomb detonated near ground level on dead level ground (plains country) might be no more than a 45 mile radius.

Now on to the part that is impossible to predict: long range linear coupling.  Because telephone lines, power lines, and railroad tracks will act as giant antennas for EMP, the EMP waveforms will be coupled through those structures for many, many miles beyond line of sight (BLOS). Just how many miles BLOS is not yet known. I believe that if it were not for the advent of the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 (which banned atmospheric and space nuclear weapons tests), the DOD and AEC would have had the opportunity to conduct far more extensive tests to further characterize the panoply of potential EMP effects. But those test bans have kept us in the dark. In the absence of practical data, there is a lot guesswork, even among "applied physics" expert nuclear weapons physicists. We may not know the full extent of the EMP risk until after we see that bright flash on the horizon.

For planning purposes, you can probably safely assume that if you are living more than 280 miles from a major city, then your vehicle electronics will be safe from a terrorist  nuke's EMP. (Since you will be BLOS to the EMP footprint of a nuke that is set off below 75,000 feet ASL.) Your home electronics, however, anywhere in CONUS might be at risk due to long range linear coupling--that is if your house is on grid power. This, BTW, is one more good reason for you to set up your own off-grid self sufficient photovoltaic (PV) power system. The folks at Ready Made Resources. offer free consulting on PV system sizing, site selection, and design.

There may be other high altitude delivery methods that I haven't considered, that would provide a broader LOS. But at least the hydrogen bomb club appears fairly small, so there is less risk of widespread EMP . It is conceivable that a Russian fusion bomb might have fallen into terrorist hands during the chaotic 1990s, but if one had, then it probably would have been used by now. Thus, at present, the terrorist and rogue state threat is just for fission bombs, which makes the EMP threat much smaller and more localized.

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Wednesday July 15 2009

Letter Re: The Utility of Horses and Horse Theft Prevention in Hard Times

Hi Jim,
I read your blog every day as I am preparing my family for the likely collapse. Thanks for the info.We are looking for the ideal spot for our retreat and have found many possible places all in the Pacific Northwest (wooded, very private and off of main roads, creeks, etc.)

Here is our dilemma: We have four horses and want to grow our own hay to feed them. How does one find a property that is remote and hidden but still with enough flat, fertile land to grow hay (5-10 acres per horse!)? Our horses are all small and hardy breeds but still need to eat! In a TEOTWAWKI scenario, do you consider horses a positive for transportation, pulling/plowing power?

We are preparing for a worst case scenario -- no gasoline to import hay, closed roads, Golden Hordes, unlimited government regulation of farming/production, hungry horses, et cetera.
What are your thoughts? Thanks, - Alex

JWR Replies: Owning well-trained horses is highly recommended, particularly in a long-term situation where gasoline is either unavailable or prohibitively expensive. I recommend that you locate your retreat in both good pasture and haying country that has reliable rainfall and fertile soil. Plentiful water in the absence of grid power will be the first and foremost consideration. Assuming that you have a pair of horses that have worked in harness, find an old-fashioned horse-drawn hay mower and a large hay wagon, so your horses can earn their keep, by bringing in their fodder.

Training of both horse and rider is crucial, if nothing else than for safety. As our family has learned, a horse can do a lot of damage in a hurry, even if they are at a standstill. Get the best training you can afford. For draft horses, Doug "Doc" Hammill up in Montana is one of the best. There are of course hundreds of trail horse trainers, but for practical versatility I recommend that you also search out the best working horse trainer in your region. (Even if you don't own cattle now, you may someday in the future.) OBTW, I recommend watching the DVD "Clinton Anderson: On the Road to the Horse Colt Starting".  

Unless you find an exceptionally isolated property, security will be dependent on having neighbors that you can trust and in having enclosed stall space where you will secure your horses every night. You will of course need perimeter electronic security. Get a Dakota Alert infrared intrusion detection system, at the minimum.

If and when you relocate, try to buy a parcel that is essentially landlocked--but I mean this in the good sense of the term--namely a parcel with a neighboring ranch between you and and the county road. Ideally your property should have just one private deeded right-of-way lane for you to watch. (Your property should sit at least one "40" back from any public road.) That will distance you and hopefully shield your stock from line of sight, and it will greatly simplify your security arrangements. Limited avenues of approach will considerably reduce the requisite security man hours and also greatly reduce your stress level.

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Wednesday July 8 2009

Net Producer-Net Consumer Equations for Self-Sufficiency: Getting Out of the Pit

In a recent phone conversation with one of my consulting clients, I was asked why I placed such a large emphasis on living in the country, at a relatively self-sufficient retreat. I've already discussed at length the security advantages of isolation from major population centers in the blog, but I realized that I've never fully articulated the importance of self-sufficiency, at a fundamental level.

In a societal collapse, where you are in "You're on Your Own" (YOYO) mode, it will be very important to be a net producer of water, food, and energy. This will mean the difference between being someone that is comfortable and well fed, and someone that is shivering, hungry, and thirsty, in the dark.

If you were to create computer models of a typical suburban home as compared to a small farm, they would probably present two very different pictures:

A typical suburban home is an energy pit. It generates hardly energy other than a bit of garden waste that could be used as compost, or fuel. A farm house on acreage, in contrast, can often be a net producer, especially if the farm includes a wood lot. (Standing timber that is suitable for use as firewood.) Properties with near-surface geothermal heat, coal seams, or natural gas wells are scarce, but not unheard of. I've helped several of my clients find such properties. For some further food for thought, see this article by Lester Brown over at The Oil Drum web site: The Oil Intensity of Food

A typical suburban home is a food pit. Just picture how many bags of groceries you tote home each week, month, and year. Compare than with the net volume of food produced by a small farm, or the meat produced by ranch. (For the latter, a ranch that is large enough to produce its own hay and grain is ideal.)

A typical suburban home is also a water pit, dependent on utility-piped water. But with a spring, or with well water and a photovoltaic or wind-powered pump, you can be a water exporter--charitably providing surplus water to your neighbors.

There are are of course some work-arounds for these limitations, such as installing photovoltaic power systems and rainwater catchments cisterns. But it is nearly impossible for a family to be a net producer of water, food, and energy, when living on just a small city lot.

Consider the inherent limitations of life on a "postage stamp" lot:

Limited acreage means that your house will always be a net importer of home heating fuel. Unless you live on acreage where you have a wood lot for firewood, you'll end up on the wrong side of the production-consumption equation. Photovoltaics are practical for lighting and running some appliances, but the big energy loads like space heating, hot water, and kitchen range cooking exceed what PV panels can produce, unless you are a millionaire. Yes, there are substitute energy sources, but most of those--such as propane-but those-are also "imported." Hmm... Perhaps it is worth the extra time and effort to find a retreat property that has a natural gas well, a coal seam or that is in a geothermal zone. At least buy a property with a wood lot, so you can heat your home and water with firewood.

Limited acreage and a location inside limits usually means restrictions on raising livestock. You might find a property that has been exempted or "grandfathered", but without the room required to grow animal feed crops, you will still be a net importer. (You will be forced to buy hay and grain, rather than grow it yourself.)

In many jurisdictions, it is illegal to have a private water well in a neighborhood that is served by a public water utility. This usually has more to do with maintaining a monopoly, rather than any genuine worries about a public health issue. There are of course exceptions, such as older houses with wells, that pre-dated the advent of a water utility. In many jurisdictions, the owners of these wells benefit from grandfather clauses. If buying such a property, make sure that the grandfather clause exemption is transferable. (Otherwise, you will have to cap the water well.)

One of the great ironies of urbanized life in modern-day America is that there has been a great inversion. In 1909, it was dirt poor farmers that lived on acreage, while wealthy people lived on city lots. But now, in 2009, owning acreage is something that most people only dream of, for retirement. In the more populous coastal states, the price per acre of land that is within commuting distance of high-paying jobs has been driven up to astronomical prices.

Have you ever stopped to think why there are large Victorian-style houses falling into disrepair in some Inner City ghettos? This is because at one time, those neighborhoods are where rich people lived. They were nice, safe neighborhoods, and were conveniently close to work, shopping, and schools. But times (and neighborhoods) change. These days, most of the wealthy have long-since moved to suburbs or to the country.

If you decide that you must stay in the suburbs, then I recommend that you at least relocate to a stout masonry house that is on the largest lot that you can afford. When you search through real estate listings, some key phrases to watch for are "creek", "grandfathered", "mature fruit trees" (or "orchard"), "secluded", and "well water." Another key word to watch for is "adjoins". It is advantageous to own a property that adjoins park land.

As I've often written, I recommend moving to a house on acreage in the country--that is if you can afford it, and your work and family situations allow it. But I'll close with one admonition: Don't bite off more than you can chew. There is no point on living on acreage if you have a large mortgage, and no working capital remaining to build up the infrastructure for genuine self-sufficiency. In fact, that would be "the worst of both worlds", since you would have higher commuting costs, a bigger mortgage, and perhaps even a bigger annual tax bill. Owning non-productive land may be worse than owning no land at all.

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Monday July 6 2009

The Nascent Depression: Be Ready to Barter and Adopt the Rhodesian View

I receive several e-mails each day from readers asking whether the currently-unfolding economic depression will be inflationary or deflationary, whether it will last long, and whether or not the US Dollar will be supplanted by a new currency. My answer is simple: "All of the above." Back in early 2008, I warned that a depression with simultaneous inflation and deflation was possible. As I've mentioned several times in my blog, here in the US we are likely to see a continuation of the current gradual deflation followed by a period of mass currency inflation. Plan accordingly.

Try to start looking at prices in terms relative value. In a world of hyperinflation where everyone is a millionaire, absolute prices area almost meaningless, but watching relative prices and values is crucial. For example, a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas have sold for roughly the same amount, since the late 1970s. This outlook on prices is what I call The Rhodesian View. To explain: Those who have lived in Zimbabwe (formerly Rhodesia) since before the change of government eventually learned to adjust their conceptions of "price" and "value". This new outlook was necessitated by the destruction of the national currency by Comrade Mugabe. His hopelessly inept and horribly corrupt government embarked on a systematic looting of the country, which included mass inflation that later became hyperinflation. At one recent point, the Zimbabwean dollar was inflating so rapidly that it lost half of its value each few hours. (An annual inflation rate of more than 200 million percent.) Similarly, nine years of hyperinflation and multiple currency recalls in Argentina had the net effect that to buy what had cost 1 Peso in 1983 would have cost the equivalent of 100,000,000,000 Pesos in 1992.

After having been accustomed to a very gradually eroding dollar for so long, it will be difficult for may people to adopt the Rhodesian View. Once inflation sets in, nearly all assets denominated in dollars will suffer horribly. This will be particularly true for dollar deposit accounts, and pensions. Those folks that don't adapt quickly will get blind-sided by inflation. Some investments like stocks will be re-valued and still retain some value because of the intrinsic value of the underlying assets (such as company's inventory, equipment, land, and facilities). Thus, they might be able to "keep up with inflation", at least in the early stages of an inflationary spiral. But most other dollar-denominated investments will be wiped out in a mass inflation.

Now lets's look at the prospects for mass inflation in the US: Say, for example, that in 2007 your house's value peaked at $350,000, but on paper it has subsequently lost $100,000 in value. (So it is now valued at $250,000, even though your property tax assessment might erroneously still show its value somewhere north of $300,000.) Fear not! Mass inflation will "restore" the dollar value of your house in just a few years. But the bad news is that shortly thereafter, inflation will be galloping along so rapidly that $250,000 may buy just one typical automobile. And then perhaps a year after that, $250,000 will only buy you a bicycle. And then perhaps less than another year later, $250,000 will only buy you a loaf of bread. Be ready, folks, and adopt the Rhodesian View of economic reality. Keep informed, be flexible, and shelter you assets in barterable tangibles! Granted, we may see no more than 20% inflation in the next few years, but the snowballing effects of mass inflations are impossible to predict. Once the psychology of double-digit or triple-digit inflation sets in--namely the anticipation of continued inflation--it becomes virtually self-perpetuating, often continuing beyond a corrective change of monetary policy, (Ben Bernanke may shout "stop help presses" (and raise the prime rate and restore the bank reserve requirements), but the paper chase may continue for many months.

I've said this often in SurvivalBlog: The time has come to begin sheltering part of your net worth in practical tangibles. These include firearms, common caliber ammunition, precious metals, full-capacity firearms magazines, high quality tools, and productive farm or ranch land that can double as a survival retreat. Once inflation kicks in, prices set in dollars will become almost meaningless, and saving "money" will become a pitiful joke, as the dollar's value melts in the fiery furnace of inflation.

Start thinking in terms of relative value, potential usefulness/productivity, ounces, and gallons, instead of dollar digits.

Get used to bartering. It is a valuable skill that will become crucial in the next decade. Practice barbering now, rather than after a crisis begin. (Learn from your mistakes now, while the consequences are small and not life threatening, rather than later, when the consequences could be much greater.)

Develop savvy about precious metals. Buy the references and tools you'll need be able to spot fakes. Practice calculating relative values. You must get handy with a pocket calculator and some standard references. (I have several listed later in this post.) For example, you should be able to calculate the values of a one ounce silver "trade dollar" round versus pre-1965 silver quarters versus a box of of .45 ACP 230-grain ball ammunition. And, with just the knowledge of the day's closing New York spot prices for silver and gold, you should be able to quantify the number of 90% silver dimes that would equal the value of 10 gallons of gasoline or the gold contained in a 1/2-ounce Gold Canadian Maple Leaf or a 2-Franc French "Rooster" or a Swiss Vrenelli. Does this sound daunting to you? If so, then you need to study and practice!

As you build up your stockpile of barter goods, you must simultaneously build your knowledge base about barter goods--especially ammunition, guns, fuel, canned foods, and precious metals--since those will all be sought-after, in a monetary crisis. Assemble a reference library that can serve you both for establishing the authenticity of goods, and for establishing their relative values. Be sure to print out some useful data and weight conversion formulas, and keep those pages in a reference binder. In my estimation, if you don't already have your own copies of the following books at home, then you are behind the power curve:

In closing, remember that it will take time and practice to get accustomed to dealing in a barter economy, and thinking in terms of real value rather than "dollars". In times when dollars are like grains of sand in an hourglass, tangibles will represent a fixed yardstick. Take the time to practice bartering now, when the stakes are low. Start attending gun shows, coin shows, antique shows, and flea markets. And be sure to gather those key reference books now, while they are still readily available. Someday, you may be very glad that you did!

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Wednesday July 1 2009

Two Letters Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation

Jim:

The figure [cited by "Feral Farmer"] of 100 square miles per hunter-gatherer can't be correct. North America covers an area of about 24,709,000 square kilometers (9,540,000 square miles). So, at 100 square mile per hunter gatherer, would only support 95,400 natives. Considering that large chunks of the Arctic and desert are minimal in their resources, not to mention Greenland, this figure (100 sq mi) can't be correct.

Here are a couple of online references:
Agricultural practices and policies for carbon sequestration in soil By John M. Kimble, Rattan Lal, Ronald F. Follett

and,

Food, Energy, and Society By David Pimentel, Marcia Pimentel

These suggest about 40-200 hectares (a hectare is a 100 meter square). This would allow 12 million to 60 million people for the continent, which is much more realistic.

Clearly, though, this is not an efficient way of feeding population, and [given the current population] would quickly lead to both starvation and stripping of resources. - Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large

Mr. Rawles,
If I might add a few comments to [Feral Farmer's] letter. Living in a rural and now recreational area of Wisconsin I have noticed several things. Unemployment is becoming a very serious issue here. Many businesses are simply folding or moving away. It is mostly the small one to five person business's that simply disappear. No big headlines, just quiet and slow.

1. Locals are fishing more than ever are putting up their Friday night fish fry in the freezer for future use. Friday night fish frys are almost religion here and have been for years. So if they cannot afford to go to the local bar for it, they will have the fixin's at home. This means that City folks may not be eating so well if they come here, expecting to live off the land or lake as it were. Small game is the same thing.

2. Mr. Feral's comment about taking 10 years to really know your land is so true. It cracks me up when I hear a city person ask: "What's so tough about farming? You just dig up some dirt, dump some seeds in and get some food at the end of summer." Yes, I have actually had that said to me. I have a field that is a bit lowland, and some what shaded by large pine trees. It was a pasture for the previous owner (perhaps for good reason). I have been trying for years to get a really good crop of anything off that field. The weeds seem to love it, but corn does not. This year we had a cold April, wet May and ups and downs in June. 90 for a couple of days and 60 the next. My corn refused to germinate. I view this particular field as a challenge and am determined to find a crop that will grow. I can do it because I have other very productive fields. My point is the same as Mr. Feral's. You cannot simply expect food to grow because you think it should, because you
read a book. Thank, - Carl R.

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Tuesday June 30 2009

Letter Re: An Outward Bound Prepper's Perspective

Hi Jim,
I’m new to your site and books but not to the concepts and precepts. My dad had a survivalist/self-sufficient mindset with a cool mix of Native American philosophy and know-how. I didn’t eat store bought meat or baked goods until I was 10 or 12 and thought processing shoulders of venison in the kitchen was the norm. We had a huge garden and fruit tree orchard. My mom was a master at canning; although I think it should be called "jarring" because you’re putting it in jars, not cans. He collected, traded, and rebuilt guns and amassed quite a collection. I grew up reloading cartridges and sanding/staining stocks and thought nothing of it at the time. He taught us to hunt, fish, camp, garden, live off the land and many other things that I took for granted at the time. He passed away last year but his lessons and way of being in the world still guide me to this day. From reading your novel I now know why he left us a 25 pound bag of really, really old silver coins.

As I have been reading your book and the blogs posts, I keep jotting notes to myself of things that have expanded my knowledge or ones that I would “pipe-in” on. I keep thinking I should read the entire archive of blogs first before piping in but realize that might take a very long time. I get bogged down in all the heavy duty technical talk and find myself putting it down or signing off for awhile. I feel very simplistic compared to a lot of the bloggers and find that I’m beginning to questions my own philosophies and preparedness. I’ve been stashing stuff for 20+ years but it has always been with the mindset of whether it can fit in a backpack or the back of my truck. I’m more of the Doug Carlton type. I can fill a backpack and disappear into the woods for many, many months and live very comfortably. And yes, shock-shock, I am a woman of small/lean stature.

I spent 10 years working for Outward Bound and 25 years backpacking/exploring North America . I’ve extensively scoped out where I would head and have created some caches along the way. I lived the majority of two years “out” and was amazed when I returned to “civilization” how much I appreciated instant fire, instant hot water, instant heat, real beds, not camping in snow, and not having to sleep with my boots in my sleeping bag to keep them from freezing overnight. Still, with all my experience and skill, the more I read of your book and blogs the more I’m wondering: Did I miss something?

I was reading through the Retreat Owner Profiles and kinda felt inadequate until some thoughts started hitting me. Could these people live/survive without the majority of all this stuff? If they had to choose 10 items, other than what they were wearing, to survive what would they be? (Hint: one of mine is heavy duty paper clips). If they had to choose three items what would they be? Do they know how to find dry wood and start a fire when it has been raining nonstop for two days? Could they curl up under a Ponderosa Pine without a tent and sleep a rainy night away? How would they react around bears, mountain lions, and the sorts? What if they got hurt out in the woods, could they handle it? How “tough” are they without their guns? The questions just kept coming and I started feeling less inadequate.

Since discovering your web site and starting all the reading my thoughts are definitely evolving. At my house I have been stashing for years what I call “luxury” stuff that would be part of a stable retreat. Within a year I will be getting a healthy inheritance and you now have me seriously considering creating a retreat at one of my “finds” from all the years of exploration. Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Washington and British Columbia have been my playgrounds for years. Over the last 20+ years of “playing” I have been honing in on where my bit of wilderness would be.

Also, thanks to you and your web site, I am now going to go back and take my brother up on some of his recent offers. One of which pertained to my dads extensive gun collection. I was home a couple of months ago and my brother took me into the “secret” room that housed a lot of my dad’s “toys”. We grew up calling them “toys” because my dad was somewhat adamant about people outside the family knowing anything about his extensive collection of guns, knives, arrowheads, old coins, et. cetera. I was staring at a room full of guns (amongst other things) and he told me take whatever I wanted. All I took was one small handgun because most of them are what I call “guy guns”. They were big, beefy, heavy, etc. Now I am thinking even if I can’t use them, I can trade them for something more my size. Without having me ingest an encyclopedia on guns, what would you suggest? I’m 5'5", 110 pounds, with small bones. I have access to most any new gun at cost or below cost. My brother would tell me not to by new but to go with unregistered older models, but some of the newer ones are seriously slick.

I have lots of thoughts and tips about living/surviving in the woods but it seems a lot of your web site is devoted to established retreats and I’m not there yet. So, I will keep reading and evolving my thoughts. You got me digging out all my old topo maps of the western states and going back through my experiences there. I am going to Oregon in a week, Utah in three weeks, and northern Montana in a couple of months. I had planned on just doing more re-exploration but will now have a more focused approach. So, thanks! Take care and keep your socks dry, - Sharon

JWR Replies: It is a pleasure hearing from a reader with extensive backwoods experience. You will find that invaluable. I often say that there is no substitute for hard-earned practical experience. It comes with some years, and with putting one foot in front the other, over hill and dale--chalking up considerable mileage off of pavement.

As for your firearms question: My wife is 5'4" and is under 100 pounds. Her primary rifle is a Valmet Hunter .308 semi-auto, which is a rifle generally carried by much larger shooters. The trick was having both the stock and barrel shortened, so that the rifle would fit her properly. She also had a Pachmayr Decelerator recoil pad installed. That rifle has taken a lot of deer in the past 15 years, since it has also been used by our teenagers, while growing up. Don't miss some of the letters in the SurvivalBlog archives about gun choice for smaller shooters. Just type "small-statured and shooters" into the "Search Posts on SurvivalBlog:" search box at the top of the right hand bar.

Good luck with your search for a suitable retreat. For my selection rationale, and some detailed locales suggestions, see my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation".

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Monday June 29 2009

France in 1940 as a Parallel to a Modern-Day Golden Horde on the Highways

Dear James:
I recently purchased a book that may be of interest to my fellow SurvivalBlog readers: Hanna Diamond's book Fleeing Hitler: France 1940. This book is currently being remaindered at the Canadian Internet bookseller Chapters.ca. The jacket copy states: "In June 1940, as Hitler's armies advanced on Paris, the French people became refugees in their own country. This is the story of their tragic flight".

It describes what's probably the largest, best-documented mass evacuations of a major Western city in modern times. Invasion by Germany certainly constitutes the Schumer hitting the fan in most people's opinion; the French certain thought so; millions of them bugged out ahead of the Wehrmacht. In a nutshell, their experiences validate current survivalist thinking about bugging out; the importance of getting out early, what to bring and what to leave, having a reliable Bug-out vehicle (BOV), Bug-out location (BOL) a well-planned route, etc.

The French experience in 1940 is also an interesting contrast to what might happen under similarly desperate circumstances in modern-day North America; there's be far more motor vehicles and guns, and fewer draft animals. It's a sobering prospect. Diamond also highlights the ineptitude and helplessness of a government in turmoil; in 1940, waiting for help, let alone useful information from the French government was not a viable option, and notes the surge in lawlessness as the refugees became increasingly desperate.

I'd recommend the book to anybody contemplating or planning an eventual bug out. Sincerely, - R.E., A Somewhat Prepared Canadian

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Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation

Dear Editor:
John M.'s letter was excellent, polite, and to the point.

The following are my rules for townies:

1. If your water comes out of a faucet or a bottle, and you can not safely walk to a permanent backup source in less than 10 minutes every day, then you will die.

2. If you do not raise your own food, or personally know the family that you bought it from, you will either die, or be forever controlled by someone with a clipboard and a list, and you will wish you were dead.

3. If you live in the city because your job is more important than your life, then don't bother bugging out. The only Job you are likely to get out here in the country is digging graves for people that think like you.

4. A centuries old rule of farming: It takes a minimum of 10 years of farming a piece of ground to know it. So, you're going to compress a decade of intimate knowledge into a weekend, because you read a book? We'll send the guy mentioned in Rule #3 out to your shack next spring.

5. Unless you have a fully stocked and equip 19th century-style working farm to escape to, with food for two years stored in place for humans and livestock, you are simply a well-intentioned refugee, or an unwelcome house guest.

6. [Forget "foraging".] In the 1850s, (for the purpose of sizing reservations), it was determined that a skillful Native American needed 100 square miles (10 miles x 10 miles) minimum, to live off the land, per person. There was a lot more game back then, and less afraid of humans. You're going to be competing with around 300 million hungry human bellies, every morning.

7. Ten cases of canned food fits in a 2'x2'x2' area. Around 30 cases will give you one meal a day for a year, and fits under a [tall] bed. The gear, tools, food, and clothing needed for a family of four for a year in the wild would fill one or more semi-trailers. So you think that you're going to effortlessly bug out with a truck and trailer at O-Dark-Thirty and survive? Stay home, or become breakfast for less dainty bellies.

Finally: There are two terms you hope never appear in your obituary: "unfortunate accident", or "shallow grave".

If you and your gear are not already pre-positioned on your own homestead, and your city job is just seasonal or part time for the Gov.Bux, you are probably bound to end up in one of these two categories by bugging out.

Prepare, but stay where you are, unless the emergency is a temporary natural event - Feral Farmer

JWR Replies: I concur that taking halfway measures is an invitation to becoming a statistic in a societal collapse. As I've stressed countless times, the best approach is to live at your retreat year-round. A marginal second choice is to maintain a fully-stocked retreat that is constantly under the watchful eye of a trusted friend or relative that can also keep your fruit nut trees watered and look after your livestock. But even then, you'll likely lack the requisite large-scale gardening experience in your retreat's particular climate zone. You will also lack having developed trust relationships with your neighbors--something crucial to survival. It is incredibly naive for anyone to anticipate that they can "bug out" with everything that they'll need. Even if you are fortunate enough arrive with your vehicle and trailer intact, as "Feral Farmer" points out, you will be way behind the power curve: under-equipped, and under-provisioned. And as, John M. mentioned, those that are under-prepared will probably end up in a life of thievery, rather than watch their families starve. The goal here is to be part of the solution, rather than part of the problem.

I also concur with Feral Farmer's observations on foraging. The hunting and even the fishing pressure will be tremendous. I've heard from consulting clients in California' Coast Range that deer harvest have dropped to pitifully low numbers in the past five years, because of the depredations of Mountain Lions. (Which have been elevated to protected species status in the People's Paradise of California.) The chances of filling just one deer tag, they say, are now slim except for anyone that has the time to willing to "hunt hard" throughout California's short deer season. So, I ask: If this has happened when there were just a few thousand excess mountain lions, then what will happen when there are an extra 5-to-10 million deer hunters wandering around California, shooting at anything that moves? (The California deer population has already dropped from more than one million to an estimated 485,000. That is not a lot of deer to go around, WTSHTF. And what will happen to the freshwater fishing stocks, when there are hundreds of thousands of set lines being worked, year round?

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Sunday June 28 2009

Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation

James -
We think along similar lines, as my wife and I relocated to Central Idaho in 1995, raising and homeschooling our four children here. We're electrically functioning off the grid, engage in animal husbandry, grow what vegetables we can, and stock up on essentials we cannot produce and always meticulously rotate the stock. And we hunt, big time.

I read the entry on your site today about the fellow who intends to travel ore than a thousand miles in a blink of an eye, and use this blur to make a life-changing decision based on distorted glances at sixty miles an hour. Though I agree with essentially every bit of advice regarding location considerations, and in particular what to avoid, perhaps you should suggest to this fellow to split his trip into two or three, perhaps even four excursions so he can really evaluate what he is looking at.

I've lived in the west my entire life, a witness to the destruction of Colorado as we finally fled the far reaches of the West Slope for here. Knowing that one simple mistake in terms of selecting a location can be fatal in and unto itself, we began looking in 1993 and through 1994 before making our selection. Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana. Distance from population centers was number two on our criteria list, but as you well know, the number one priority must be water.

People in the cities haven't really a clue as to its relative scarcity. Turn on the tap. Our criteria was "live, year-around creek" on the prospective dirt, or it was scrubbed from the list. At 8.37 pounds per gallon, you can't realistically haul enough any distance for survival if survival means growing food if TEOTWAWKI actually occurs. Maybe not enough to use just to satiate thirst if you are too far from the source.

Let's face it. If people have to actually "Bug Out", the "End" is happening, right there and then. Think: water, water, water, and location, location, location.

I wrote a piece about "relocation" a few years back for a Peak Oil web site that generated several thousand comments, the vast majority of them were positive. The negatives were from the Gold's Gym-type jerks who thought I was trying to come off as some kind of tough guy, which I wasn't. "Realism" offends people. You cut one cord short on firewood before winter and the snows get hip-deep, you are dead. Sometimes you have "Close Encounters of the Third Kind" with large critters equipped with teeth and claws. I killed a damned lion at six feet inside my barn who was upset that I was upset that he had killed my milk goats. A bear at thirty feet on top of one of our sheep who was none too happy with me either. The wolves are here constantly, and that's just a time bomb waiting to go off. We've had jerks from cities show up on the place acting, and to be kind here, just a little "weird". Occasionally and unfortunately what followed were "in your face" armed confrontations, required to convince them getting the hell out of here was a damn good idea.

Which leads to another situation that is always notably absent from writings about "Getting out of Dodge". Why isn't it mentioned that people are already "out there", and even if a person chooses to relocate before the fan is blowing manure that it takes a couple of years before the indigenous outlanders accept your presence. These pre-existing folks, as you well know, traded off the easy living the cities offer for a harder lifestyle that almost guarantees austere living. The F.N.G. is a newcomer, and no one knows whether her/she is a curse or a blessing. The number of drug-laden scum that has floated in and out of here over the years is pretty amazing, let alone the flood of retirees who ain' t worth knowing. A third of them want sidewalks along Forest Service Roads.

And then when things go south, some guy, regardless of what color collar he wore to work, abandons his 52" widescreen HDTV, his Budweiser and the N.F.L. Package, throws his "Git-R-Done" stuff in the 4-Runner. Off he goes, carrying just enough with him to guarantee that where he ends up, thieving and murdering is going to be happening. Why? Because he's in a panic regardless of how "cool" he thinks he is. In truth, if you don't already live "out there", you aren't prepared. City folk are waiting to run, and they are running to nowhere. For that matter, half the people who are already "out there" aren't really prepared. But City Folks simply cannot take with them what is needed long-term to survive, and even short-term if winter is upon them. So, he is going to become a thief and a murderer. Where he's headed he doesn't own dirt, has no roof over his head, and he hasn't got the food to last a month. The most moral man in the world will become the worst of sinners when facing starvation. Add a man with his woman and a passel of kids, and you've got a desperate man. "Honey, I starved the kids!" I don't think so.

So, what do you think folks around here are thinking anyway? Putting out the "Welcome Wagon" for an exodus of people who refused to sacrifice ahead of time? Those who have been living easy and going to Applebees every Friday night? The wife blowing money at the mall every Saturday with the rest of the "girls"? People who thought, "I'll stay here doing the 9-5 because the woman insists, and then we'll go if we have to." Here's another good one: "We didn't want to move and have to change schools. The kids really liked it there."

The foregoing mean that the "Old Lady" and the "kids" have been dictating his life anyway, right? You ever seen these women go through "Mall Withdrawal"? Good God, it's a terrible sight to behold even under good conditions! At least when things are "normal" they can head over the pass for a methadone-like "Mall-Fix" up in Missoula or head to Idaho Falls. Shoot, you go and "Cold Turkey" a mall-dependent woman and h**l doesn't even begin to describe the price that must be paid! It's viral too, I swear.

Seriously though, is there some assumption that such "exodus scenarios" aren't discussed by the locals down at the cafe's in Salmon, Challis, and Elk, Bend, and North Fork over morning coffee, as well as at the Sheriffs Departments around here? My understanding is that the roads in and out of here are to be closed, which is fine by me. There isn't much bounty here to begin with, and adding a bunch of instant vagabonds will simply be making meager pickings that much slimmer.

Fools rushing for the hills. There's a steep learning curve and most aren't going to make it. Best regards, and keep up the good work - John M.

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Saturday June 27 2009

Letter Re: Dealing With Local Building Inspectors

Mr. Rawles,
[To follow up on TANSTAAFL's letter,] I have worked for several engineering firms as a GIS technician, then manager. Counties will advertise when they will be re-flying parts or all of the county. Most county engineers, auditor, or Property Valuation Administrator (PVA) offices will tell you what the schedule for mapping is out a couple of years (usually the department in charge of tax assessments). A give away that it is happening is when you see large X's painted in intersections with a metal spike sunk in the middle of the X (these are control points), with survey trucks with GPS receivers sitting in intersections or other open ground. Most orthophotography is done in late winter or late fall, when the leaves are off the trees and there is no snow on the ground. Evergreen trees are good for masking what lies on the surface. Not much you can do to hide any earth work that changes contours. There is another means of gathering contour information, LIDAR. Basically a laser that oscillates and paints the ground. Even trees won't fully obscure it.

On a side note, the old USGS quadrangle maps are now almost supplanted by FEMA's flood insurance rate maps, which are all digital. There is all kinds of info available through those maps for interested parties.

On the non-government side, Google Earth is getting better resolution all the time, farther and farther away from population centers.

Your best bet to avoid attention is anonymity. That is true for all sorts of things. - School Dude

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Thursday June 25 2009

Avoiding Bugging Out, by Steve M.

One core tenet of the Survival and Preparation (S&P) culture that is often misunderstood, misapplied and has a high probability of failing, and that is “the bug-out”.  I am prompted to write this after reading so many S&P-related books, blogs and forums where individuals are indicating that their primary plan, and the focus of their preparations, is bugging-out.  The common discussion topics of bug-out vehicles (BOV), bug-out bags (BOB), bug-out land, etc, and the overall S&P lexicon confirm the importance placed on the bug-out concept.   Although well organized and executed, a 1,600 mile bug-out is portrayed by some of “The Group” in the novel "Patriots".

Don’t misunderstand, bugging-out does have a role in S&P: if your residence becomes completely uninhabitable, for any number of reasons (earthquake, radiation, toxins, fire, destruction, war, etc.), then relocation is mandatory.  In these cases, being prepared to mobilize and relocate yourself, your family, and some resources is vitally important.  Such situations force the prepper to implement Plan B.  The problems with bugging-out are both numerous and severe, and are to be avoided or countered, if possible:

  • Only a small, finite quantity of supplies can be transported
  • Dependency on replenishing supplies is created
  • A good place to relocate may not be found or actually available even if prearranged.
  • It may not be possible to travel (impassable roads, vehicle failure)
  • You may not be welcomed by the residents of where you relocate or in the territory that you pass through
  • An operational BOV creates an attractive target if it appears to be transporting anything of value and due to the minimal security that can be provided

It has been well established by this blog and many S&P de facto leaders that outside of a few specific circumstances, the primary plan, Plan A, should always be to bug-in.  Staying at your primary home has many advantages:

  • More food/fuel/shelter resources can be available
  • The facility can be better maintained due to your frequent access
  • Better established social connections and greater access to shared resources
  • Less need for transportation and transportation fuel
  • Avoids health and safety risks associated with travel
  • Higher levels of security are possible

The problem arises when lack of adequate, fundamental preparation results in the need to bug-out, when it otherwise could have been avoided.  In other words, Plan A (bugging-in at your primary home) must be abandoned unnecessarily and prematurely, and Plan B (the secondary and far worse choice) becomes the only option, due to the prepper’s own actions or inactions.

People frequently write about how their urban home would be unsustainable, over-ran, or likely destroyed in many potential scenarios.  Therefore their preps focus on bugging-out.  When times are good and relative tranquility prevails, there are many attractions to an urban lifestyle, with job availability at the top of the list.  Recognizing the added risk and difficulty of post-SHTF survival in the urban setting, preppers often abandon bug-in preparations, relegating themselves to bugging-out.  Different life choices, such as small town or rural living, or taking extraordinary efforts to prepare their urban home, increase the viability of Plan A.  For me and many others, the post-SHTF advantages of rural life are secondary to the quality of life enjoyed in these slower-paced environs. 

The math doesn’t support bugging-out.  If one assumes that there are 305 million Americans and about 2.3 billion acres within the US, it sounds promising that there are 7.4 acres available to each American to which to bug-out.  So a family of four should get almost 30 acres, right?  Taking a closer look, inhospitable open cultivated farmland, open pasture, desert, wet lands, and bodies of water can largely be eliminated as places to which to relocate. Although these places could be inhabited, they are less attractive than “heading for the hills” as is often cited as the bug-out plan.  What about the nation’s forests? There are about 747 million acres of forest that appear to be available for relocation.  Data suggest there are 50 million “rural” Americans, and 255 million “urban” Americans.  So we have some part of 255 million people that currently reside in about 60 million urban acres, looking to relocate on something like 757 million forested acres, which is about 3 acres per refugee. Not only is this not much space in which to live and forage, but:

  • There will be great demand  for suitable locations close to urban centers
  • Space will not be assigned, so there will be competition for choice space
  • In a hunting-gathering mode, refugees will be forced to cover a wide area (hundreds of acres) in search of sustenance
  • Rural folks already are there, feel (and have legal) ownership, and are willing to protect their Plan A bug-in position

In conclusion, I advise that one of two actions be taken to reduce the need for depending on a bug-out strategy:

  • Commit to and prepare for bugging-in, regardless of your current residency.  Fortify your home, stock up on supplies there, and implement countermeasures to unique urban challenges. “Improvise, adapt, overcome” as necessary.
  • Relocate to a place where bugging-in can be more practically implemented in as many scenarios as possible. 

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Letter Re: A Retreat Property Shopping Trip -- Three States in Six Days

Mr. Rawles,
At one time or another I have driven every mile of the trip as you described in your reply. Like you, I have encountered those who [are unfamiliar with the driving distances in the western US]. I've even met folks that cannot discern the difference in scale on a road atlas from switching the pages between Montana and Massachusetts.

I see this regularly with Army inspectors who call me and say that they want to fly into Billings, inspect Army Reserve units in Billings, Butte, Helena, Great Falls, Missoula & Kalispell all in two days and then fly out on the third day. :-)

Not counting any of the half-day side-trips that you mentioned, Mapquest estimates a driving time of "19 hours, 31 minutes, and a Total Estimated Distance: 1,114 miles". Regards, - Ed in Montana

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Wednesday June 24 2009

Letter Re: A Retreat Property Shopping Trip -- Three States in Six Days

Mr. Rawles:
I am planning a trip to the Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming area the first week of October. Is there any area to avoid at all costs? Is there any area to "must see"?

We will only have 6.5 days on the ground so must make every minute count. Your knowledge and help is greatly appreciated. Thanks, - Mr. Falsch

JWR Replies: Wow! Covering three states in six days? That will really be pushing it. Given that incredibly tight time constraint, I'd recommend this itinerary:

Fly in to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and rent a four wheel drive SUV. But don't look around there--it is a resort town. Drive south and start looking in earnest in the Star Valley of Wyoming, then drive down to Montpelier Idaho. Then zoom through (skip-over) most of southern Idaho, and head north on Highway 95. Start looking in earnest again when you get to about 20 miles south of Riggins, Idaho. Then take a half-day side-trip to see any available ranch land up on the "Island" plateau (a must)--that sits west of White Bird, Idaho. Then proceed to Grangeville, and drop down the south fork of the Clearwater river. You'll pass right by a property that I used to own, near Stites. Spend some time looking around Kooskia (a must), and be sure to take a drive out Clear Creek Road. Next, drive down the Clearwater River Valley to Orofino, and then Lewiston. Then drive up to Moscow and perhaps take a short side-trip to Troy. Proceed north on highway 95 and then take a side trip to St. Maries (a must), then after skipping over the resort town of Coeur d'Alene, check out the area from Athol up through Cocolalla. Then, skipping over the resort town of Sandpoint, check out the vicinity of Bonner's Ferry and take a half-day side trip up the Moyie River Valley. Crossing into Montana, check out the Yaak River Valley, and then up the Kootenai River Valley to explore the Libby, Montana area. Finally, drive up to the vicinity of Eureka, Montana.

Even with only brief stops to talk to real estate agents to pick up brochures and to buy some Huckleberry ice cream cones, you will be hard pressed to do all that in six days. If you had just a couple of more days available, then I'd advise taking a side trip to the Salmon, Idaho area (especially driving the nearby River of No Return Road, as far as the wide spot in the road called Shoup), and perhaps another side trip Driggs, Idaho.

Places to avoid: Skip by all of the arid regions (wherever you see mostly sagebrush-dotted hillsides), skip all the trendy resort towns, and skip all of the high-elevation towns like McCall!

For much greater detail, see my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation". There, you will find some useful maps and details on the locales that I mentioned. That book ($28) will give you the equivalent of several days of my consulting time, that is normally $100 per hour.

There are also numerous suitable retreat properties listed at our spin-off SurvivalRealty web site. (You will note the Idaho, Wyoming and Montana are featured prominently.)

OBTW, mid-October will be the peak of the fall colors through most of the route that I described. So bring lots of film or a high capacity digital camera memory card!

Also, BTW, October is deer and elk season in all three of those states, so expect to find only skeleton crews manning the real estate offices. It is best to make appointments with agents in advance!

« Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Letter Re: It Will Be Skills, Not Gear That Will Count in TEOTWAWKI »

Monday June 22 2009

Five Letters Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009

Jim,
I live in a rural farming area east of the Mississippi and can tell you that cutting a gate or fence would be a very bad choice (in this area).  In 99% of the cases you would already be on private property, so cutting the fence or gate would be considered a “hostile” act.   Most of the folks I know would shot first and ask questions later . . . these folks all hunt, so they are not likely to miss . . . and trust me they know when someone is on their property.   When the police are called, you will find they are a relative or friend of the local (we are very rural) . . . and the “strangers” will be just “bagged and tagged”.    If you must cross a gated or fenced area, stop, honk your horn, jump up and down, o anything to get the property owners attention, he is probably watching anyway . . . who knows you might turn out to be an asset to him instead of a liability.

I do not want to make this sound all negative.  We all know that living at your retreat full-time is the best option, but circumstances may make that impossible for you; your job or just the finances to make that kind of a move.   The real question is do you believe bad things can and will happen?    If so what are you going to do that is practical and realistic?    “Borrowing” a plane might be a cool idea, but it is far from realistic. Several have already commented on this point and I happen to be a retired Naval aviator with more hours and experience than I care to remember, and flying to my retreat would be the last option I’d consider (we live at our retreat full-time, but do travel).    If “your” plan involves some exotic way of escaping the metropolis you live in then you are planning to stay too late (that includes having to take back roads)!   You will have to establish “trigger events” that make the decision to execute “your” depart plan (what those trigger events are up to you, based on your analysis and understanding of events.) If you wait until it is obvious to everyone then you are “way too late”.   And that is the rub: are you willing to give up your comfortable city life for a survival existence, on a “chance” that “this is it”?   If the answer is “no” then best of luck to you, you will need it.  If the answer is “yes” then you had better figure out a way to preposition your items, at a location that involves more than just your family . . . and then maybe you will have a fighting chance to survive the transition.   None of this is easy, but if you really want to provide for and protect your family then what other options do you have. You can rely on the government to see to your basic needs (it’s called being a refugee), or you can do all within your power to provide realistic options for them yourself. The choice is yours. - RH in Virginia


Dear SurvivalBlog Readers:
I want to preface my comments by saying that I have the utmost respect for JWR, his work, and all the readers and contributors to this site. I understand and hold close the essential tenets of independence and preparedness, living as I have my whole life in the heart of Southern California earthquake country.

That said, the recent string of essays about escaping a city when TSHTF is complete nonsense. The thought that if you get out early you’ll leave everyone else behind is fantasy thinking. The fact is that in such a situation just about everyone will be thinking about getting out and many will act on that impulse. That means that EVERY freeway, EVERY back road, EVERY intersection, and EVERY town will soon be filled with hoards of roaming people, all of whom will be unprepared, scared, and desperate. You might – MIGHT – actually get a jump the situation and beat the hoards out of the city but a human tidal wave will be right behind you, spreading out in all directions, many thousands of which will be heading right to wherever it is you’re going.

Further, a good percentage of the roaming hoards will be street criminals and gang members. Many will be military vets who had advanced training in tactics and equipment and they’ll all be heavily armed – in many cases, better equipped than the local law enforcement. In the short-to-medium timeframe, these groups will be the most dangerous threat and sooner or later they’ll be coming to your hideout. I don’t care how many rounds of ammo you’re carrying on the way or how much you’ve got stashed if you actually make it to your refuge. No matter how much you’ve got it won’t be enough, especially if you get in a firefight with a group that’s shooting back with high caliber, armor-piercing ordnance. And let’s not forget about the really heavy stuff – RPGs or plain old dynamite that they’ll find along the way. If you look like you’ve got equipment and food, you’re going to be a target, simple as that.

JWR is right – the safest strategy is to move away now and get established long before the crisis hits, preferably far enough away that it’s just too difficult for city hordes to get to you. (A tip of my hat to Frank B – 15 miles from the nearest asphalt road.) You’ll still be in danger from unprepared locals and groups that do make it out to the frontier but the farther away and better prepared the better.

Meanwhile, what about the millions of us who can’t relocated and are stuck in the cities? After 30 years of survival thinking related to earthquake preparedness I determined that the only effective strategy is to stay put and lay low. Don’t fire up your generator, blast your radio, and light up your house will the oil lamps you so carefully stashed for just the very event. In fact, leave all your survival equipment stashed for a couple of days until the first big wave of refugees passes by. Camouflage your place and your family to look like you’re destitute – that you have nothing, just like everyone else. With a bit of luck, the hordes will pass you by and you can then join up with neighbors, pool your equipment and resources, and develop a defense strategy. Meanwhile, whatever governmental resources exist will be directed at the cities first so there’s a likelihood that some form of law enforcement will be imposed. It’s the rural areas that will be the most lawless and there won’t be anybody out there to help enforce the peace, at least not for a very long time. Once the peace is secured in your city you can implement your long-term strategies of off-grid living, food production, bartering, and practical skills - machinery repair, welding, auto and home maintenance - that will always be in demand.

One final thought – as mentioned so often on the site, survival skills have a very steep learning curve and there is no substitute for hands-on experience and training. Read the books but then go practice! Can you find, set up, and operate your equipment in the pitch dark at 3 AM? If you’ve had a beer of two? Can your spouse, if you’re hurt? Can your kids if you’re not home? Have you ever eaten freeze-dried food? Can you take down and repair the Coleman stove? Bake biscuits? Operate a chain saw? Jury-rig a DC power cable from the car battery to your living space? Successful preparedness means that you continually ask – and answer – such questions. - Patrick C. in Southern California


James,
I think using an aircraft as a bug-out vehicle would not be a good idea. If you look back at the emergency following the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States, you'll remember that all planes were grounded. I a 9-11 situation a small aircraft flying low or even flying at all would attract unwanted attention. Probably in a bug-out situation in a aircraft you would have to leave early before things got hot and and you risk being forced down in a strange location or being shot down. Both not good options. On 9-11-2001 my wife and I were scheduled to fly home on a commercial airline at 13:30 from half way across the country. Needless to say we found we were grounded before we finished breakfast. When I heard the news we headed to the nearest electronic teller and withdrew as much cash as was allowed. Since we were traveling by air we were traveling light and had little survival gear and virtually no weapons. First we checked the trains and found they were all stopped, same for busses. I next zipped over to the local truck rental and reserved a rental truck for a one-way trip home with a credit card. After the truck reservation was secured I went to a local car dealer and secured financing for the purchase of a late model used SUV and put a small deposit down for them to hold the vehicle. Had I had my own plane I may very well have considered hedge hopping home and would more than likely not been allowed to refuel reroute and maybe risked being arrested if I did manage to land of my own accord.

Because of the help afforded us as total strangers stranded in a strange town, far from home, we moved to the area the following year and have lived here on our small farm at the end of the gravel road ever since. - P.B.

 

Jim,
I knew my letter regarding escape in a light plane would end up attracting the criticism of one or more experts on the subject... I'd like to address Larry in Pennsylvania's response.

First I'd like to point out that I never suggested using a Cessna 172 for anything. I merely mentioned that my father-in-law recently purchased one and that's what got me thinking about it. There are any number of light planes available, from ultralights to Cessna Caravans, and some are better suited to the task than others, depending on how far you need to go. I, for example, have friends who own a 450 acre ranch 250 miles from here. I could easily make it to their ranch in virtually any airplane without having to refuel.

I addressed some of Larry's points in my original letter. Yes, fuel is an issue, that's why I mentioned it. I think Larry might have misunderstood what I was saying. I was not suggesting putting autogas into any random airplane. There are a ton of light planes that have been STCed (Supplemental Type Certificate qualified) for autogas and many more with the same engines that could burn autogas but whose owners haven't asked for an STC. In a 1998 letter to the Experimental Aircraft Association (of which I'm a member), the FAA said "Autogas use has been extensively compared, tested, and analyzed. Autogas has been shown to be an acceptable alternative to avgas for the airplanes and engines approved for such use. Airplanes and engines approved for autogas use have met the FAA certification requirements for engine detonation, engine cooling, fuel flow, hot fuel testing, fuel system compatibility, vapor lock, and performance." More information and a copy of the letter above can be found at AviationFuel.org. What I suggested and what I'm suggesting now is research. Know ahead of time what your airplane can burn and either have it on hand or have solid plans for how to obtain it.

I also addressed Larry's concerns about overloading so I won't rehash that here other than to say again that yes, payload is an issue but it can be planned out ahead of time. I thought I was very clear that leaving by airplane was for those who had pre-positioned supplies [at a retreat].

As for obstructed runways or runways cluttered by looting, etc., I seriously doubt it in any realistic situation that would require emergency evac by air. Here is a perfectly realistic situation: Terrorists bomb the nuclear power plant that sits 150 miles upwind of my (very large) city. A fallout cloud is approaching at 15 miles per hour. The authorities screw around for four hours and then declare an evacuation of the entire city. We've got at most six hours to evacuate a huge city and its suburbs - a feat that the Gulf Coast cities can't pull off in two days! Interstates immediately become parking lots and before long are totally stopped by broken down cars. A mere fraction (5%) of the population decides to take state highways and county roads - that's 315,000 people - and the same thing happens to those roads. Whatcha gonna do?

In this scenario, do you think looters are really going to head for the airports to steal gas and oil? I doubt it would even occur to them, especially in the hours immediately after a disaster. They'll be in Best Buy and Wal-Mart stealing televisions and beer - we've already seen it happen!

My airplane suggestion was laced with caveats and the weather was certainly one of them. During many parts of the year, large parts of the country enjoy nice weather with only isolated storms. You don't need forecasts and radar to avoid bad weather. God gave you eyes and the ability to make a 180-degree turn. Pilots did it for years before these services were widely available. Further, except over congested areas, there are few places where you'll have no options for an off-field landing. Have plans 'B' and 'C' constantly in your mind. When I was flying my solo cross-countries, there was never a moment when I hadn't identified somewhere I could land if the engine quit 'right now' - my instructor beat that into my head constantly. As Larry points out, an off-field landing could invite looters but remember, the emergency is only hours old and people aren't hungry yet, and probably aren't desperate enough that the normally law-abiding become a danger.

As for Navaids such as VOR, ADF, and even GPS... Ever heard of a chart, a pencil, a stopwatch and a compass? It ain't rocket science. If the weather is good you don't need any outside help to get from A to B. Again. pilots did it for years before these were available - and for many years after, since many couldn't afford to equip their aircraft with fancy gadgets and nav radios.

Finally, once again I'll say this is a very unlikely scenario. If it happens it depends on having good weather and solid pre-planning, at least to the extent possible. The wisest course in my hypothetical situation above would be to bug out by car at the first hint of a problem - before the full extent of the problem was revealed to the masses. But if for some reason the news was delayed or something (car problems, missing family member) delayed your departure for even a few hours, leaving by car would be impossible. At that point my "Plan B" starts looking better than radiation sickness, despite some well-identified problems and risks. It's all about options. I think keeping options open is important. - Matt R.

JWR,
An important note to remember if one plans to use an aircraft during some type of emergency is that the control of the National Airspace System may have been handed over to the military. If that is the case, and I think it would be as the government attempted to maintain control of things as the cascade of events progressed into TEOTWAWKI, something called SCATANA (Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids) could be implemented. This plan closes down all aircraft operations save a few fixed wing fighter interceptors under the direct control of the National Command Authority. Here’s the bottom line. Under SCATANA if you fly, without positive control from the right folks, you die. No warning, no identification passes. An example of how serious the blanket authority is enforced is illustrated by the instructions given to a USAF C-130 on 9-11-01. This aircraft, full of soldiers from one of America’s front line Divisions was over the Great Plains on an exercise. They were ordered to land at a small municipal airport immediately. These soldiers, and they weren’t just Privates, ended up renting a bus for the day long ride back to their unit. Agree desperate times may call for desperate measures but ensure you have adequate information to make the decisions. As always, planning is the key ingredient for success. Using an airplane is a possible Get Out of Dodge solution, especially if used early on in the event. Just know all the second and third order effects. Keep up the good work. Excellent site - Redcatcher21

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Wednesday June 17 2009

Letter Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009

Mr. Rawles,
Concerning the article: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009, by Bill in Chicagoland, I would like to add to these comments. My 20 years experience driving the county roads and the farmer ranch roads with the Soil Conservation Service have given me a perspective of the potential for choice this road system presents.

I have a considerable amount of experience driving cross country.

I have driven from the Northern Texas panhandle across the Oklahoma Panhandle into southeastern Colorado and north to the Colorado Springs area on mostly gravel and dirt roads.

Several times I have driven the 250+ miles from Denver Colorado to Salina Kansas mainly on dirt/gravel roads or county blacktop roads. This particular trip is paralleling the major river valleys throughout this area. The interstate roads basically follow the uplands/highlands avoiding the river/creek valley bottoms. That portion of the drainage system between rivers called the upland or divide area. Up on these area you have minimum drainage systems to cross. Only when the rivers and major creeks make a jog south or southeast do you find a major drainage system to cross.

Why are drainage systems death to bugging out? You can cross them only on bridges, and bridges are [logical ambush sites and hence potentially] death traps.

Here is an example: West of Oklahoma City, you'll see that I-40 strikes out to the west.

Now, let's clarify something. [Even in most plains states,] there are no paralleling roads to interstates that extend for extensive distances. Yes, there are some that may parallel for 20 to 30 miles. But as soon as the interstate jogs you get the paralleling road intersecting the interstate or its diverting away in a direction you may not want.

If you do not know your area well, you can get boxed in quickly.

West of Oklahoma City striking in a southeasterly direction is the Canadian River. The interstate crosses the Canadian river in the Hinton/Geary area. That is some 35 miles west of Oklahoma City. The next Canadian river crossing on the north side of the interstate is just northeast of Thomas. That is 23 miles west and 13 miles north of the interstate.

So…you come barreling out of Oklahoma City and find the interstate clogged. Look again at the map. The city of Oklahoma City has a major river running through it. The North Canadian River. You cannot get on the Interstate. The bridges going over the North Canadian River south are filled with traffic. You opt to set out west through Oklahoma City on a street that will take you west to El Reno and then on to points west following the Interstate. But you cannot do this on the north side of the interstate.

And the south side of the Interstate is closed off because of the bridges across the North Canadian River are jammed full.

The road system on the north side is a maze of closed roads, dead end roads that all end up down in the Canadian River valley. And in the 60 miles west of Oklahoma City only one bridge crosses the Canadian River on the north that can keep you on any kind of westerly tract. That’s at Thomas. The closer bridge only gets you down to the interstate and it will be clogged full at that point.

So you make it to Thomas overland on the secondary roads.

What now?

You now have a dozen or more large creeks all running southerly into the Washita River. You have to cross them if you continue cross country.

Yes, you can get on Highway 33 west but I would guess that many others will have the same idea.

You also have Foss Lake complex and its National Wildlife Refuge area to get around.

Another major obstruction.

Going west now on secondary roads you will notice the interstate drifting in a SW direction. You are getting further away all the time.

Backtrack: What did you miss on the map? By the way, what map am I now looking at?

A copy of a DeLorme Atlas & Gazetteer [Get one for your state, and contiguous states].

You missed the railroad bridge. Where?

Find Bridgeport between Hinton and Geary. See the railroad track symbol where it crosses the river.

Now, the following separates the men from the boys. When I was 16 my buddy’s father was the Missouri Pacific’s depot agent in Larned, Kansas. We knew the train schedules. We conquered our fears and put my 1948 Dodge car on the rails. Yes you can drive down the rails. You do not have to let the air out of the tires. Just slow down when you go over road crossings and switches. We rode the rails for miles. We even crossed over the Arkansas River railroad bridge. That was scary to think about the wheels coming off the rails way out over that 150 yard long bridge. But we drove this way, and so can you.

You will need to be very cautious doing this. Sending people ahead with radios to the top of a close high point so they can see the tracks some miles away. Giving you time to cross. What speed can you expect to make? We used to cruise 10 to 15 miles per hour. My 1948 Dodge had a traditional hand throttle that you could set.

[JWR Adds This Proviso: Hy-rail pickups and dedicated speeder vehicles have been previously discussed in SurvivalBlog here and here. Please read those article and heed the safety and liability warnings. Riding rails on car tires without supplementary alignment aids is foolhardy. There is a lot that can go wrong in a hurry! Don't attempt improvised rail travel this unless it is an total SHTF disaster situation and there is absolutely no alternative, and only then with someone playing "ground guide", and with certain knowledge of the train schedule (or by doing so only on a rail line that is known with certainty to be inactive.)]

This is dangerous. Be careful. It is also illegal.

The thesis of this presentation is several fold:

1. There are no extensive long parallel roads along most interstates.

2. You must have a set of the DeLorme atlases or similar detailed maps for where you are going. Better to have a set for every state that surrounds you. If you live in the prairie states get a set for every state within two states in every direction.

3. You also need to have a map showing just the counties and the river systems.

4. You must drive you routes in advance on both sides of the interstate.

Note that Item #3 above is necessary to have a map of the rivers. You can plot a general route that will keep you on the uplands/divide between the river/creek systems when you cross country.

The system described here is good only for the plains states between the Rockies and the Mississippi River. It will work in the area between the Missouri and Mississippi further north in most of those areas. But once you get into the Ozark highlands, the southern deserts off the Rocky Mountains and in the swampy country next to seashores and the Southern States it does not work.
Nor in the Appalachian mountains. The west coast is another whole problem.

The central portion of the US, the prairie states have a grid road system laid out in township and sections. This allows a great amount of choice for travel. Areas that do not have this system are much more constrained as to overland travel.

Driving cross country you will find [some straight] dirt and gravel roads that can be negotiated at 45 to 60 miles an hour. Be cautious and slow down at every road junction and at the crest of all hills that you cannot see over. Some where out there you will crest a hill and find a slow tractor pulling a swather or a large combine with a 20 foot wide head on it suddenly in your way. You must use caution on these back roads. Do not assume that all dangers are marked. You may find dead end roads just over a crest with a 4 foot tall wall of dirt and a deep ditch in front of you at 55 mph. Crash, end of journey. Be careful of bridges. There are still may bridges out there with wood decking. It can be weak, have nails sticking up and or tire wide gaps in them. I have also seen concrete bridges built by the WPA in the 1930s with holes in the deck more than two feet across and not marked with any warning signs.

Vital equipment for cross country driving:

1. Binoculars or spotting scope

2. Weather scanner

3. Maps

4. Jacks with wooden blocks to put under them for support.

5. Shovels

6. Tow chains

7. Tire chains.

8. Bolt cutters and wire cutters

Beware of sudden rain showers on dirt roads. Soils high in clay particles will shed rain and appear to be shiny. They are called ‘slick spot’ soils. You will not sink into them. But rather your vehicle will just want to slide over into the ditch if the road is not flat. These roads are slick! It is possible to put a vehicle into a low gear; get out and walk along the side steering and pushing or pulling sideways to keep it in the center as you walk along. Better when there are several people to help. I have accomplished this for stretches of road further than one quarter of a mile when I worked as a District Conservationist with the Soil Conservation Service.

Avoid showers in the distance. Drive out of their way if possible. Stop on a stable section of road and wait for the sun to come out. Slick spot roads can dry out in one hour or less and be drivable as if no rain fell there for days.

Genuine cross country driving:.
If you find roads blocked with wreckage, power poles, washed out bridges, trees and or a group of freebooters who demand tribute, then you need to have thought of an alternative.

There is an alternative to simply turning around and being chased.

Cut the wire on the fence and drive away out across the land. Best done out of site of the freebooters. Wire the fence back up so it is not too obvious that someone has exited the road at that point. You will need bolt cutters. A 24 inch pair will suffice. For chains at gates or locks you need a 36 inch-long set and a hacksaw blade with extra blades. Carry along several locks. If you cut off a lock replace it. If you have to come back you can open it quickly and lock it putting a good barrier between you and any belligerents that want to discuss the situation with you.

If you lack a lock that looks like the one you have cut. Super glue it shut. You can always re-cut it a second time if necessary.

Carry with you two 2x4s that are 10 feet long, each pierced with 20 penny nails arrayed close together. Drill holes that are just small enough to provide the friction to seat the nails so they will not come out easily. Drill two 5/8 inch holes in each end. Cut half inch rebar stakes 12 to 16 inches long and sharpen then to a decent cone shape on one end. You will need a 4 pound hammer to seat them into a roadbed.

So, say that you approach a hill crest slowly and glassing the road ahead, you see a group of freebooters down the road. They see your heads and cab of a pickup sticking up over the crest. Whooom, here they come. Get out the spiked 2x4 and nail it down across the road with the rebar. Leave and when they come roaring up over the crest their tires will have lunch with the spikes. Flat tires have a way of ending pursuit.

If you encounter groups of people who are belligerent but appear not to be shooters. Place a spiked 2x4 across the front of your steel safety grill and make a run for them. They will not want to get spiked as you go by. It will keep them away from the windows and doors.

[JWR Adds This Proviso: Caltrops have been used as a defensive measure for centuries. I have my doubts about their utility in daylight, but they might prove useful at night. To be useful in daylight for defense against vehicle-borne looters approaching a retreat slowly, caltrops or tire spikes would have to be concealed, which is a huge legal liability. Because we live in very litigious times, I DO NOT recommend using caltrops or tire spike strips in in anything but an absolute worst-case TEOTWAWKI situation, where you are completely on your own to defend your retreat, and there is no longer a functioning law enforcement or court system. Using them in any lesser situation is an invitation to a hugely expensive civil lawsuit and possible criminal sanctions. An ambulance-chasing attorney would have a field day, and the likely result would be that you would lose everything that you own in settling a lawsuit. Ironically, this is an example of where using deadly force against an intruder (namely, a firearm) is less likely to result in a lawsuit than a non-lethal weapon. Civil court juries tend to be very sympathetic to "maimed" plaintiffs, and are prone to award disproportionately huge "pain and suffering" damages. Caltrops and tire spikes are banned in some states in the US, and Australia. With all that said, commercially made caltrops are available, as are tire spike strips, although most manufacturers will only sell them to law enforcement agencies ordering on department letterhead. The best of these use hollow spikes, so they can defeat even self-sealing tires. And example of this type is the HOllow-Spike TYre Deflation System (HOSTYDS), manufactured in the UK.]

Crossing Interstate Highways
All interstate roads will have at some point a significant water gap.

It will be big enough for you to drive through. Be very careful. These can have plunge basins formed on the down stream side that are many feet deep. Can be clogged with old fence wire and tree limbs. They can be swampy and full of washed in silt that is solid on the top and unstable to support weight underneath. You can get stuck and never get out.

Scout these places carefully.

Remember you may be driving under the interstate that is packed above with people who have gotten desperate.

And you may be able to just drive up to the interstate, cut a fence on one side and drive across weaving through parked cars, perhaps, if you are lucky.

Get the maps. Study them. Drive the [primary, secondary, and tertiary] routes. Anything less is a modified death wish.

Rule #1: Leave early.

Rule #2: Remember, you can never schedule an emergency.

- JC in Oklahoma

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Wednesday June 10 2009

Letter Re: Advice For Older Preppers With Limited Mobility

Hi James,

Thanks for your many years of great work. While I was enjoying and learning so much from your books and the web site, I was also growing older and have physically "lost the edge". More accurately, I reaped the unintended consequences of 55 years of smoking and now have a tough situation Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This is [best described in layman's terms as] a combination of bronchitis and emphysema. I have not smoked for three years and my breathing is now stable at 51% of normal. This ailment is not unusual in the senior community, and COPD is the third largest killer in the USA. It severely restricts activity and higher altitudes are deadly. Like most of us with COPD, I am on oxygen 20-to 24 hours a day, seven days a week, plus lots of varied and expensive medications, to include my liquid oxygen, mostly supplied to me at low or zero cost by the Veterans Administration.

Additionally, and this may apply to many of your readers, my wife and I are the primary care givers, in our home, for her mentally disabled older brother. He too is a vet, Korean War Era and age 79, and receiving 100% of his medical care from the local Veterans Clinic, as I do. The Veterans Administration (VA) is a terrific source of excellent health care. All eligible vets should enroll ASAP a the VA web site. Go there and get in before the Obama National Health Carelessness Agency gets to their house! I expect the VA will be forced to shut out all non combat vets soon!

My wife and I, and a few friends, all sorta elderly fellow military vets, have been like minded about preparedness since well before the Y2K era. About 20 years of learning and prepping! We have the basic stocks of food, water, meds, clothing, and appropriate security items. We have learned to help one another and to be able to give to others in need. I have stocks of dvds to enjoy and to use to teach others. We have a 2,100 Watt solar system for power. We have devised a simple system to safely filter irrigation water for our local water needs, to include drinking, cooking, and laundry. We've worked together and planned together successfully. We are a team and care for each other as an extended family.

We live in small town in rural Utah. My wife and I are pleased to live in a close knit town of about 500 good caring folks. This area is highly LDS, about 50 - 60 %, and they are mostly "not very well-prepared" .... surprise! surprise! The [majority of] Mormon people--and I can say this as an active LDS--are not ready for any disaster. Less that 10% have a emergency response mindset. The LDS Provident Living web site is great, and while the LDS Church strongly promotes and enables provident living, far too few members are prepared for any emergency. Many have a little bit and very few have enough. As a people we are not well prepared. [JWR Adds: But on average far better prepared than most other Americans, and that is commendable.]

As a family, we've done all that preparation, and still I have a serious problem with no answer. You see, I will be dependent on solar power to enable my oxygen concentrator to produce O2, power the kitchen, and the computers, and to recharge the batteries. I can't leave our home area for more than about 6-9 hours (maximum battery life for the portable concentrator). In an emergency my darling wife of 43 years will not leave me. My Veterans Elderly "A" Team / Extended Family wants to "zip cuff, gag, and bag" me and take me out of danger, but they too recognize the travel difficulty and are without a solution. Moving the solar array and the necessary ancillary equipment is a two day exercise.

We seniors are a large portion of the community and an even larger part of the preparedness group. I have yet to see or hear any preparedness help for folks like us. Many seniors are just like me; older, somewhat ""less abled physically, somewhat less able to travel, and more dependent on local medical services. 20% of us are raising our grand children... At the same time we are surely more knowledgeable, more able to lead, more experienced, more secure financially, more able to teach and to mentor, more equipped, and more likely to have lived through hard times and to have serious military training. And very importantly, many of us have real time combat experience. We have been to see the "Elephant Country". The younger folks need what we have to offer because they will die without it.

My problem is very simple. I have done all of the right preparedness chores and now I find that my family can not get in the truck and bug out. And I'll be 69, next birthday. What do I do now?

thanks again. - Old Bobbert in Utah

JWR Replies: My general recommendation for retirees is to set yourself up as the retreat destination for the younger members of your extended family. You can provide them with their bug-out location, and storage for their supplies, and the benefits of your years of preparation. They can provide you with the young and healthy hands, strong backs, sharp eyes, and sensitive ears you will need after TEOTWAWKI. I often stress the need to pre-position retreat logistics. By having your extended family's supplies at your locale, it provides insurance that they will be there to help out, when the balloon goes up.

OBTW, you mentioned oxygen. For anyone that heavily dependent on medical oxygen, I strongly recommend buying a portable oxygen concentrator. Many of the portable models are compatible with 12 VDC power. This means that you can run them from your alternative power system battery bank, without the need to run a DC-to-AC inverter. For much greater "range" away from your retreat, you can keep a charged pair of deep cycle 6 VDC golf cart batteries in your vehicle.

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Letter Re: Growing Food on a City Lot

JWR:
While we all dream that perfect place in the country it is important to emphasize how much that can be accomplished on a small city lot. My home sits on about 6,000 square feet of land, a small suburban house in a cookie-cutter neighborhood . The house and garage and drive way take up about half of the lot . Of what's left, I'm slowly converting the ornamental landscape to organic food production. My current garden consists of 48 tomato plants (4 varieties) 2 beds of sweet corn, 2 rows of cucumbers staggered 2 month s apart for continuous harvest, 2 similar rows of pole beans, one row of lima beans, 30 sweet pepper plants, 6 pumpkins, 12 winter squash, 12 summer squash , 6 cantaloupes , 4 peach trees, 2 nectarine trees , 2 pear trees , 2 apple trees, and one fig. In addition, numerous herbs –(basil , dill, rosemary, sage, and thyme) and 4 artichoke plants . Could easily plant enough onions and garlic to last us all year and I plan to do so as I add beds.

Last year I grew enough popcorn to last two years. Next year I plan on a large bed of dent corn for corn meal. Am still experimenting with winter crops but peas, beets, carrots, and kale all do well and I'm anxious to see how many potatoes I can get from 100 square feet.

I figure that I' ll pull about $2,000 worth of food from the garden this year and that ’it is going to increase because I still have about 1,000 square feet of ornamental beds and lawn to tear out and plant and the fruit trees are still young . Over the past 8 years I've spent less than $1,000 for tools and equipment: two spades (one all metal for my heavy clay soil) , a Mantis tiller, metal fencing stakes for pole beans, tomato e s, and cucumbers ( they last forever, much better than wood) , various clippers, twine, a bit of organic fertilizer , and the bare-root fruit trees . This year I've spent less than $25 ( seeds, twine, and a bit of seaweed spray) since I have all the tools already. Could rent out my tiller at $ 30 / day if I took the trouble to post at the local store. Meanwhile, we're eating healthy and free and will start putting up food as I expand my beds and grow enough to save as well as eat.

I love the work so it is not drudgery for me it is great exercise and a relief to be outside after working in my office all week . Weekends in late winter and early spring are a bit busy –-- perhaps 5 or 6 hours per weekend for a month or so . But once the winter garden is out and the spring garden is planted, it requires about two hours per week for the rest of the season.

Yes, we all want to life in the country. But until then there's free food for eating and survival storage right in your backyard if you're willing to do the work. - Patrick C. in Southern California

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Saturday May 30 2009

Creating a Crisis Decision Matrix, by Steve N.

It's been said, “It takes a village to raise a child”. While I do not agree with much of anything else Hillary says, that was certainly true in my case. My upbringing consisted of guidance and council from a rather diverse group of individuals, a large segment of whom were 1970s-era survivalists, (How many of you remember Mel Tappan's “Personal Survival Letter”?). These were self-sufficient, hard-money, common sense, salt-of-the-earth type people. A few even had underground bunkers, (I mean “root cellars”). Given the mind set of my mentors, you might assume that I’m all stocked up on beans, bullets, and band aids. Regrettably, I am not as well prepared as I should be. As I analyzed why this is so, I was forced to admit that I had fallen prey to a fault that could prove to be uncomfortable or even fatal, if not corrected. Please bear with me as I illustrate with personal experience.

I was raised in rural America, and have hundreds of hours in canoes. One clear October morning, my friend and I took a hankering for some fresh trout, and we knew of a lake a couple of hours paddle downstream from his house. October is nigh winter in the North, and we figured since the bugs had been frozen out for a week or so, the trout would be ravenous.
We arrived at the lake after a leisurely downstream paddle, and were delighted to find only half the lake's surface in winter's early grasp. Our strategy was simple, we would cast our lures onto the edge of the ice, reel them back ever so slowly, until they slipped into the water with hardly a ripple. With such a quiet entry, the unsuspecting trout were inhaling our spinners. We sure had it our way; no bugs, no bears, no tourists, and the fishing was hot! In my mind's eye, I could see my wife's beaming smile, she loves fresh trout.

Then, while netting another candidate for the skillet, my friend leaned over a bit too far. The canoe tilted and several gallons of water poured over the side. My fast-thinking (but clumsy) friend, realizing that he was going to capsize us completely, rolled over the side, into the lake. The canoe righted itself but, all the water that had poured over the side seconds earlier, now ran to my end of the canoe. The combination of my body weight plus several gallons of water was enough to submerge my end, and water poured over the bow into my lap. Having no recourse, I (gracefully) floated out of the swamped canoe, into the lake. We stayed with the canoe, and kicked our way towards shore, however, the closest “shore” in this case was a raft of muskeg several yards away. (Muskeg is a thick mat of vegetation so dense it floats, common in the North country).We clawed our way onto the muskeg, and it immediately started to sink beneath our weight, so once again the water came pouring in. Everything reached equilibrium and we stopped sinking at about knee deep, so we stripped down and wrung out our clothes, dumped the canoe out and headed for home. The upstream paddle was a blessing in disguise because the hard work kept us relatively warm.

We made it back, and even managed to save the fish. And yes, my wife did beam a brilliant smile; she loves fresh trout you know. But legend has it that, every October, the animals gather at lakeside. They tell a tale of a couple of hapless fisherman, who stood on the edge of the muskeg, naked to the waist, knee deep in icy water, hyper-ventilating while they wrung the water out of their clothes, and then disappeared upstream, never to be seen again.

My point is simply this, through no fault of my own; my situation had deteriorated from relatively pleasant to a little chilly, and a lot life-threatening. Never before, or since, have I been unintentionally thrown from a canoe. Just that once... but that's all it takes, right? “Just that once”. I suspect you and I are a lot alike. Despite our experience, (remember my “village”), we keep living our lives as though the “canoe is never going to tip”. It's called denial.

The people who study the psychology of survivors, tell us that the mental progression in wilderness survival situations is similar to that of someone who has just received some disastrous news. Countless situations have devolved from rescues to recoveries because the participants refuse to acknowledge that they were in a dangerous situation. The survivors are the ones who get through the denial stage the fastest. The don't waste a lot of energy wondering “Why has this happened to me?”. They get over it, and get on with the business of surviving.
The preparedness process can seem overwhelming at times. There are so many necessities that, deciding where to commit time and/or resources can be disquieting. The truth is, its way easier and cheaper to stay in denial, because after all, the canoe is never going to tip, right? To help get you off high center, I'd like to offer a decision making matrix; a method to help you decide where to expend your time and resources to your best advantage.

Industry has developed a procedure called "Process Hazard Analysis". If you’re responsible for the safe operation of a facility of some kind, you gather your engineers, technicians and operators together and discuss the risks involved in running your plant. Big picture it works like this; you pick an event, and rank how likely it is to happen, the severity of the consequences if it did, and any safeguards in place to prevent that particular event from happening. With this prioritized list you are able to see where to put your maximum effort. If you’ve never had the joy of sitting through this procedure... I’d suggest a mid-October swim instead. But, if you think of an “event” as a condition that produces an undesirable result, then you can see how we can apply this process to our preparedness efforts.

Make 6 columns down a piece of paper. Title the first "category/event", the second "Likelihood", the third "Consequences". "Safeguards", "Total" and "Action" are the titles for columns 4, 5, and 6.
The rankings for the “likelihood” and “severity” columns will be 1 through 5, with 1 representing "highly unlikely" (for likelihood) and "Insignificant" (for consequences), 3 representing "Probable" and "Serious but Repairable", and 5 representing "Highly Probable" and "Financial Ruin/Fatality". (I'll include a complete list of the rankings I use in an appendix at the end of this article).

So, for example, if I picked a category of "Civil Unrest" and an event of "Riots", my thought process would go like this: There has never been a riot in my hometown and it's very unlikely there ever will be, so "Likelihood" would get a rank of 1. I live a ways out of town so, even if there was a riot in town, it's very doubtful that it would spread to my place, so "Consequences" gets a 1. I have locks and an alarm system and a big dog, so I'm "Confident" in my safeguards, I'll give them a 3. You can see that I don't need to spend a lot of resources preparing for riots. On the other hand, you may live in a neighborhood that has experienced nearby riots. You rankings would come out different and perhaps indicate that you should spend some time thinking about how to mitigate that risk. Note however, that a category of "Civil Unrest" with and event of "Burglary" would rank higher in my situation, because that particular event has happened in my area.

Had I chosen a category of "Natural Disasters" and an Event of “Forest Fire", my likelihood rank would be 5 (because forest fires have occurred in my area). The consequence rank would be 5, because the worst case consequence is a fatality. My safeguards, (detectors, and extinguishers) are adequate but could use improvement, so safeguards get a 2. Add column 2 (likelihood) and 3 (severity) and subtract column 4 (safeguards) and I have a total of 8 out of a possible 10, a high priority. You can see through this extreme example that, it makes more sense for me to focus my efforts on upgrading my fire plan, than it does preparing for a riot. I should probably place a higher priority on fire extinguishers than firearms, hard to do given the emotion of today’s situation. Examination of your situation may well result in a different conclusion. The important thing is that emotion is removed from the decision making process.

We all have a tendency to “lock up” when faced with an intimidating task. It is my hope that, by introducing this decision making process, you can remove the paralyzing emotions from the decisions that must be made. By thoughtfully following the process, you’ll create a touchstone that will anchor you when self-doubt or well-meaning friends criticize your actions, and you are tempted to procrastinate or worse. If your beliefs don't impact your actions then they're just worthless mental baggage. How many times have you heard the word "unprecedented" lately? That means that we have never been in this situation before, not in all of mankind's history. So we really have no idea how this will end. There is still time to act, the canoe hasn't tipped yet. Use this matrix to assess where you are in the preparedness process and, most importantly, act on your decisions.


Suggested Definitions of Rankings

Likelihood
1. Has not happened to you, or in your local area
2. Improbable, unlikely
3. Possible
4. Probable, likely
5. Has happened to you or in your local area.

Severity
1. No significant consequence
2. Disagreeable, minor physical/financial loss
3. Significant but repairable
4. Major injury, financial hardship
5. Financial ruin, fatality

Safeguards
1. None
2. Low confidence, needs improvement
3. Confident, has been adequate
4. Extremely confident
5. Absolute confidence

Add the Likelihood and Severity numbers, and subtract from that the safeguard number for a personalized risk ranking of a specific event.
You can see that, events with high likelihood, severe consequences and low safeguards are going to require action, say any event with a total risk ranking of 8 or more. Total risk of 5-7 deserves some serious consideration. Total risks of less than 4 are low priorities. If you decide an event requires action, it may be possible to add safeguard points, and diminish the risk, with simple lifestyle changes before committing resources that could be better used elsewhere.


The following is an example of a Crisis Decision Matrix. (Modify to fit your particular situation.)

Crisis Decision Matrix
Category
Event Likelihood
Consequences
Safeguards
Total
Action
  1. Has not happened to you or in your area
2. Improbable/unlikely
3. Possible
4. Probable, likely
5. Has happened to you / in your area.		 1. No significant consequence
2. Disagreeable, minor physical/financial loss
3. Significant but repairable
4. Major injury, financial hardship
5. Financial ruin, fatality		 1. None
2. Low confidence, needs improvement
3. Confident, has been adequate
4. Extremely confident
5. Absolute confidence

Likelihood

+ Consequences

–Safeguards

= Total

 
Civil Unrest –Riot
1
1
3
-1
 None
Civil Unrest – Burglary
5
3
4
4
 Look into improving my security system with cameras and a DVR
Natural Disasters – Fire
5
5
2
8
 Need to improve fire detection ability and devise family contingency plans for specific fire scenarios. Research “Firewise” principles for structures in high risk areas.

 

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Thursday May 28 2009

Letter Re: Advice for Newcomers in a Community--Overcoming the We/They Paradigm

Good evening Mr. Rawles,
My name is Ignacio, I'm a Cuban-born American. The three best days in my life were when I married my wife, when I became an American citizen and when my daughter was born (in this country). I am an avid reader of your blog, and working hard to get prepared, we bought a small place (1.5 acres in southwest Florida, it's in the woods) it was the only thing we could afford to get ready. But I am very concerned that my neighbors might not like us because we are Hispanic (although my wife is blue-eyed and has blonde hair.). I can assure you that no one loves this country more than we do, but I understand that most of the Hispanics do not like our country.

What would be a good way to approach my neighbors? Sincerely, - Ignacio R.

JWR Replies: I recommend that you do your very best to get to know your neighbors, and make it clear that you are are part of the community. Get involved in community activities. For example: join the local volunteer fire department (they offer great training, by the way!), make the effort to introduce yourself to your neighbors, invite them over for barbeques and other social events, join the local church, Rod and Gun club, ham radio club, and so forth. I also recommend joining (or forming) a local Community Watch organization.

It takes time, but with effort, you can make yourself an insider in a community. I am confident that you know in your heart that you are "an okay guy", but you just need to demonstrate that to the folks in your new community. If you work hard enough at it, they will consider you not just a neighbor, but an indispensable neighbor and a genuine "go to guy".

Several times in SurvivalBlog, I've mentioned what sociologists call the We/They Paradigm. The bottom line is that you need to immerse yourself into the collective "we" (insiders), so that you aren't seen as part of the "they" (outsiders). In my experience, race and even religion need not be barriers to becoming part of the "we". It is clear from your letter that you love our Nation. Just make it clear to your neighbors that you love your community, just as much.

Cementing your relationships with your neighbors can take years. Or, in the case of South Florida, just one hurricane season. If a time of deep trauma or deep drama comes up (such as severe weather or wildfires), then jump in and help out with disaster relief, starting with your nearest neighbors. Check on every one of them, and ask if there is anything that you can do to help. Based on what you demonstrate of your character, your neighbors will quickly learn that you are someone that can be trusted when the Schumer Hits the Fan. And, BTW, it will give you a chance to size them up, as well.

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Tuesday May 26 2009

Letter Re: The Top 200 Hunting, Fishing, and Low Cost of Living Towns

Jim,

The June / July 2009 issue of Outdoor Life magazine is out, and they again rate the top 200 towns to live in based on the following data:
1. Gun Laws
2. Huntable species
3. Fishable species
4. Public-Land access
5. Trophy potential

Their top Five? Lewiston Idaho, Marquette Michigan, Idaho Falls Idaho, Rawlins Wyoming, and Pocatello Idaho.
They also rate the 30 places to live for hunters and fisherman based upon the cost of living index. (Your dollar goes further there.)
This magazine is out now, and also has an excellent review on many current binoculars and spotting scopes.
Look for the big: "200 Best" on the cover.(BTW, I am not associated with this magazine.)

Regards, - FloridaGuy

JWR Replies: It is no surprise that Idaho, Wyoming and Montana have held prominent positions in the Outdoor Life rankings for two consecutive years. After all, some of their criteria is quite similar to what I used in my Recommended Retreat Areas state-level rankings.

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Monday May 18 2009

Letter Re: Prince of Wales Island, Alaska as a Retreat Locale?

Sir:

I understand your comments on Alaska's [poor] potential for survival retreats .Your logic is sound and I have to take seriously someone who has thought about these issues longer than I have. But there is always a but...What about Prince of Wales Island, Alaska? Backwoods Home magazine published an article written by a Jon Stram that I have not got out of mind. The article sold Prince of Wales Island very well, so [for counterbalance] I need an unbiased, expert opinion Thank you, - Russell:

JWR Replies: You aren't the first to suggest that locale to me. it. I must admit, that as Alaska goes, it is captivating and has one of the best climates. The island is bigger than Delaware!. In my estimation, it would be a fine place to be during an economic depression comparable to the 1930s, but not in a full scale collapse where it would be isolated from transport--especially liquid fuels. (Chainsaws, power boats, generators, float planes, and snow machines "no worky".) There are 6,000+ people on the island. That is a lot of people for an island with essentially no large scale agriculture, especially when there is no gasoline, diesel, propane, or kerosene available. The accessible four-legged wild game would probably be cleaned out in short order. After that, things might get ugly. In an absolute worst case, your neighbors might start hunting two-legged game.

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Sunday May 3 2009

Letter Re Advice for College Students Living Abroad

Hi,
I'm a student from Singapore studying overseas in Australia and I'm also a Christian. I have been following your blog for quite awhile, and there are some things I would like to ask.
First, what advice can you give to students studying overseas? As a student, I stay on my own in a rented place, and probably will have to move every six months or so, so stockpiling food and goods are only feasible for about a month or two worth of food, as I will have to shift everything I own on my own to my new place whenever I move. That being said, I have roughly about a month's supply of food stored up, but it is mostly in rice. If things go bad, I won't be able to eat well, but will survive (I stocked up on some vitamins as well. Not healthy I know, but better than nothing.). Additionally, what kind of food should I buy and store? Currently, I am thinking about baking hardtack, as they are easy to make and store well. I also have about 20 liters of water, and am able to purify more than 100 liters of water using water purification tablets and I also have a bottle of plain bleach.

As I am not in my home country, and if anything happens, I have no 'safe' place to go. Other than going into the bush, which will not happen, as I have no bush skills, the only choice I have is to hunker down and try, if possible, to get a flight/ship back to Singapore. With such limited options, I am worried about what to do WTSHTF, which is ever more likely, given the current swine flu going around. While I do know a family staying in a relatively rural area, I do not know if I am able to get there as their acreage is quite a distance away from my place and I have no transportation. Also, I am not sure if they are prepared and stocked up for any crisis, so there is no guaranty that they will be able to take me in. I would greatly appreciate some advice over this issue, as it is the most important issue, and also advice on whatever you think I am lacking in below.

Supplies: I have managed to gather some stuff over time, some medicine/first-aid(learned some first-aid when younger, and still know the important stuff), lights (some military stuff, since I have done my national service, a couple of wind up torches as well for backup/indefinite use), fire starting equipment (lighters, matches, fire starters, candles, no flint due to being unable to find someplace that sells it), lightweight cooking equipment (billycan, metal bowls and tins, utensils). Not much, but been trying to convince my parents to send over some more supplies I have, which are mainly military stuff (nothing illegal, but will raise some questions; excuse is they are for paintball, etc). Additionally, for food I have about 10 kg of rice, plus enough canned food for a week (or more, if I ration it), 6 liters of packet milk, about 20 packets soups, cooking spices (very good for making whatever you have taste better), salt, etc. For toiletries, I got plenty of toothpaste/toothbrushes, toilet rolls (about 2 months worth), soap/shampoo, etc.

Self defence: Nothing much, since there are strict airport rules, and can't get a gun over here or in Singapore either. I keep a Swiss army knife on me all the time, but that is mainly for use as a tool, as normally there won't be any time to take it out. I learned tae kwon do when young (almost got my black belt, but was unable due to circumstances), and am trying to learn more methods and techniques of fighting. If it comes down to a fight, I am fairly confident that I can hold my own against one or two people, but I have been trying to improvise weapons that will allow me to escape. I have been trying to find a place to learn Krav Maga, which is an Israeli martial art designed to teach you to fight anywhere, any how, and any time, against multiple opponents that may or may not be armed, with various weapons. They focus on being ready to fight at all times using whatever it takes to survive (aka all the dirty fighting techniques). I think that it is a very useful martial art to learn, as it is the most realistic form of combat, and teaches you how to improvise on the spot (They have two rules: 1. survive, 2. Try not to hurt your sparring partner.). In any case, I think the most important thing to have is to be aware of your surroundings and people that are around you. An armed man is hard to be beaten, unless taken by surprise, and an alert man is hardly ever taken by surprise. As a side note, I recently bought a slingshot, not that I expect it will be of any good for defence, but rather more for hunting small animals if things really go south. Just need to get around to practicing with it.

Day to day carry: I carry with me a Swiss army knife, some medicine/first-aid, water purification tablets (for 20 liters), a small LED light, a lighter and some money in small notes in a small pouch close to me everywhere I go. Planning to add on another pouch with more medical supplies, especially for this swine flu outbreak. I also have a SOG multi-tool that I can add on, but chose not to as people will really question what I am doing with 2 knives and all those stuff. Also, wherever I go, I also bring along at least 1 liter of water, a torch, a poncho, additional first-aid supplies, hand sanitizer, a bar of soap and a couple of cereal bars. If I am on a long trip (more than a day or a few hours by car), I would bring along additional stuff, like more fire starting equipment, extra food, extra water, a spare torch, and a spare change.

Skills: I learned basic first aid when young, learned tae kwon do, crude fire making (not too good), cooking, sewing (very basic, mainly for repairing/modifying clothes) and cycling (although my area is very hilly, so I hardly cycle). I am trying to learn more skills, like bushcraft, Krav Maga, hunting (doubt I will be able to), and brush up on my fire starting skills, although in light of the recent bushfires, it may be a bad idea. Also I am handy with simple repairs (mainly a crude temporary fix), and like to innovate and make new stuff.

Swine Flu: I have been trying very hard to raise my stock of food and medicines ever since I heard about the swine flu, but due to time (university) and financial constraints, I can only stock up so much. I have been buying paracetamol tablets, aspirin, face masks (box of 100, plus various other dust masks), anti-bacterial hand gel, hydrogen peroxide, and am looking for surgical gloves, proper N95 equivalent face masks, Sambucol, more water purification tablets, antibiotics, Betadine, bandages, etc.

Economic crisis: I have been looking around for a place to purchase silver bullion with whatever spare cash I have, but have been unable to find a dealer. I am hoping to get at least 150 ounces of silver in 1-ounce to 10-ounce bars before the economy gives way, which I suspect won't be long. I pray it doesn't happen, as my home country will be hit really hard as it is focused heavily in the financial sector, but being a realist, I think eventually my family will have to move over to Australia, as at least it has farmland, natural resources and a very social welfare-focused government as well.

Thanks for all your effort to educate people about the coming world situations and how to prepare for it. What you are doing can mean life or death to many people in the future when the world crashes and burns. - DieReady

JWR Replies: By all means, do team up with a rural family, if you can. If you cache a large quantity of food with them, you will be assured of being welcome there WTSHTF, since you will be a benefactor for the family. In such circumstances, food is a much better investment than silver! If you can pre-position your storage food and most of your gear there, you can plan to bug out via mo-ped.

There are two ways of looking at obstacles to preparedness: 1.) As reasons to give up, or 2.) as challenges and opportunities for growth. For example, your hilly terrain can be seen as an opportunity to build strength and endurance, rather than as an excuse for not bicycling. And just because you can't find a local martial arts center that teaches Krav Maga, don't lapse into inactivity. Study whichever art is available locally. Just be sure to find the best full contact dojo in town. Furthermore, don't look at airport security restrictions as a the lowest common denominator for your self defense preps. If you are going to be in Australia for an extended period of time, then there is no reason why you shouldn't go ahead and purchase a few key "dual use" self defense items, such as a half dozen 15 minute road flares, a machete ., and a six-C-cell black MagLite ..You might also see if these is a local archery club--perhaps affiliated with your local university. Practice at least twice a week with your slingshot! They can indeed be quite useful if you take the time to practice. For your silver purchases, be willing to look further afield for dealers, or if need be, to buy from a reputable mail order dealer. Concentrate on the positive aspects of prepping, shepherd your available funds, train consistently, and you'll make progress!

« Letter Re: Life Under South Africa's Gun Laws, by Joe Ordinary Voortrekker |Main| Mexican Flu Update »

Friday May 1 2009

SurvivalBlog Reader Survey Results: Conveniently Bypassed Areas

The following are the first batch of responses to our survey about areas that might be bypassed by looters and refugees, WTSHTF:

There are many islands off the east coast that in my opinion would be avoided by most and are rich in natural resources. Particularly Virginia and believe it or not New Jersey--one that comes to mind that I've visited in NJ is Island Beach State Park. And don't forget Acadia in Maine.

--

In Arizona: The Santa Rita Mountains are south of Tucson, just east of I-17, and are used as a landmark for everyone coming across the border from Mexico. The Chiracaua Mountains are southeast of Phoenix. They are more inaccessible. Anyone wanting to make them a retreat locale needs to study up on the terrain and weather of the location. Summer highs of 110 are common and the phrase “it’s a dry heat” is a reality. A better location would be the strip of land between the north rim of the Grand Canyon and the state line. It is difficult to get to and not near any major freeway. To the north are the badlands of Utah and to the east is the Navaho Nation.

--

There is a nice little quadrangle of Appalachia between four interstates, also known as the Monangahela National Forest in West Virginia. Bordered by major G.O.O.D. interstates 81 to the east and 68 to the north, it's also bordered by I-79 to the west, and 64 to the south. If you have a retreat there, or have friends or relatives there, it'll be about as safe as can be this close to Washington, D.C., but if you don't, then mountain folk will take less kindly to fleeing urban zombies, If you aren't known, then you won't be welcome!

--

James Hancock County Tennessee is a small county near the Virginia and Kentucky line that is really overlooked. There is not one foot of rail line here and you don't go thru here to get to anywhere. No four lane roads lead into or out of the county and the total population is around 6,000. There are a few more counties west of here that are just as inaccessible. The downside is Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the fuel Plant at Erwin are relatively close ( by nuclear disaster standards ) but it a beautiful area where land is cheap and the people are friendly. We have more livestock than people and the Clinch river has the largest variety of fresh water mussels in any river in the nation.

--

The Illinois Valley in southwestern Oregon. Cave Junction is the "Big Town" in this area. Grants Pass, Oregon is past the northeast end of the valley, and Crescent City California is past the southwest end. Tiny towns are here and there. It is rural, open carry [of firearms] is very common, and real estate prices are presently low. Unemployment is high, but if you can bring your work with you, then you can do just fine.
--

West Texas (from Fort Worth to Midland/Odessa), the Hill Country (west of Austin down to west of San Antonio)

Adirondack Mountains in Upstate New York

Various islands in the 1,000 Islands Region in Upstate New York (St. Lawrence River area)

--

I recommend the Big South Fork National River and Recreation Area ("BSF") in eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, roughly 40 miles west of I-75. There is very rugged terrain inside BSF, so few roads through it. The area around BSF is lightly populated with tiny settlements along rough winding roads that dead end at the river gorge. Poor access to jobs, fuel, food, medical care, etc.

--

The Owens Valley (US 395) corridor of the Eastern Sierra California. I believe that the military bases of the Mojave Desert is almost certainly going to be turned into a giant refugee camp due to the I-40, I-15, I-5, and US 58 interstates and associated railways. This is particularly true of the USMC logistics base in Barstow and Edwards Air Force Base. However, once one travels further north to Bishop, California, one should be able to travel all the way through the Owens Valley and into central Nevada.

--

In the Great Lakes region:

One good bypassed area is southwestern Wisconsin, between the Wisconsin and Mississippi Rivers - Crawford, Vernon, and Richland Counties in particular.Look at the topo maps - it's full of hills.

There really is no reason to go through there. Major highways are far from that area. The Mississippi has some traffic, but not the Wisconsin River - that's really just recreational.

The very small nuclear power plant in La Crosse has been long shut down. Ft. McCoy is well East of La Crosse.

Door County, Wisconsin - North of Sturgeon Bay (only 2 bridges) - Washington Island, ferry access only plus airfield. Lots of boat harbors
Problem - Nuclear Power plants to the South, Two Rivers and Kewaunkee, expensive tourist area along the Green Bay side of Peninsula

Beaver Island - Lake Michigan - A huge island, 36 sq. miles with seven lakes on it. It took me four hours to drive perimeter, two airfields, long ferry ride and only from Michigan side

The uppermost portion of Michigan's Upper Peninsula (UP) - North of Houghton/Handcock Michigan - the growing season here is actually better than to the South of it!
Only one bridge, and it's a raise-bridge, so it can be shut off from traffic in moments.

Bayfield/ Madeline Island Wisconsin - Remote, but cold area . (Once the lake freezes, you can drive to island, but then there is period of weeks when you can't drive and boats can't make it, so there is an ice air boat.

Wisconsin's "Northern Highlands". Wisconsin has over 15,000 lakes and is second only to Florida for fishing licenses This is an area of forest, with some agriculture, potato country (first plant patent) and wild rice - hunt, fish, camp - it's all here. If not on a lake, land is reasonably inexpensive.

« Economics and Investing: |Main| Flu and Antibacterials, by David in Israel »

Tuesday April 28 2009

SurvivalBlog Reader Survey: Conveniently Bypassed Areas

When working with my consulting clients, I often discuss channelization and lines of drift. Most major routes out of major cities will become very dangerous places to be in the event of a massive involuntary urban exodus. Imagine the situation WTSHTF in small towns on either side of the Snoqualmie Pass in Washington, or near I-80 across the Donner Pass in California, or on the Columbia River Gorge (that divides Oregon and Washington), or virtually every other stretch of interstate freeway that is within 150 miles of a metropolitan region. These channelized areas (also called “refugee lines of drift” by Military Police war game planners) should be studiously avoided.

Conversely, there are areas between lines of drift that will likely be bypassed by refugees and looters, due to poor access. (Constrained by small winding roads, water obstacles, intervening canyons, swamps, et cetera.) Some of these bypassed zones might actually be fairly close to urban areas. It is a dangerous gamble, but if for some reason you must live near a city, then I suggest that you carefully search for what may be a largely bypassed zone for your retreat and/or home. A few regions that may be bypassed come to mind, based on what I’ve seen in my travels and from recommendations by my associates. These include:

Portions of the Ouachita Mountains, west of Little Rock, Arkansas
Some islands in the Great Lakes region
Parts of Sabine County, south of Shreveport, Louisiana
The periphery of Harry S. Truman reservoir, 60 miles southeast of Kansas City, Missouri.
Portions of Dewey and Custer Counties (80 miles west of Oklahoma City.)
The Santa Rita Mountains, southeast of Tucson, Arizona
The Chiracaua Mountains, in the southeast corner of Arizona
The Mount Hamilton region, Alameda County, California. (East of San Jose, and south of Livermore.)
Parts of the San Joaquin River Delta, east of San Francisco, California
Some islands in the Puget Sound, Washington

Driving the back roads of your region will probably reveal other similar areas that might be bypassed.

I'd greatly appreciate getting input from readers via e-mail about other areas that are likely to be bypassed in the event of major crisis. The diverse readership of SurvivalBlog includes many folks that frequent out-of the way locales, including fish and game officers, foresters, utility workers, horse wranglers, surveyors, wildlife biologists, hunters, backcountry fishermen, backpackers, kayakers, NRCS employees, and even a few wildlife photographers.We can benefit from your insights. Please e-mail your suggestions, with "Bypassed Areas" in the message header. Thanks!

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Sunday April 26 2009

Letter Re: Atheism and Choosing Your Neighborhood

James:
I am a new reader to SurvivalBlog and a big fan of "Patriots" ., I have been reading all the archives and old posts, and I would just like to clear one thing up. I am an atheist. I don't believe that there is sufficient evidence to prove the existence of a supreme power. This does not make make me a bad person. There have been some posts about choosing your neighbors that have said Christians and Jewish people make best neighbors because they are "God fearing" etc.

Just because I don't believe in a god does not mean I am going to kill/steal/rape in a TEOTWAWKI situation. It hurts me when I read such generalizations. Just because I'm an atheist, I am not going to harm you. I believe in the rule of law and mutual respect. I don't decide not to kill or steal because I fear a punishment from god. I choose not to do these things because they are wrong, I don't need a god or bible to tell me they are wrong.

Atheists are not barbarians, without morals. I help my neighbors, I work hard and believe in self reliance and preparedness. I am trustworthy and respectful. I have encountered many so called "God fearing" believers who I cannot say the same for. God may not be a driving force in my life, but I still know the difference between right and wrong. I will not try to convert you, I am not one of those loud atheists who will try to tell you how wrong you are. I believe in everyone's right to believe what they may, and I ask all to give me the same courtesy.

Religion and morals are not the same thing. I don't need to believe in a supreme power to have morals and know what is right and wrong. I just wanted to clear up these misconceptions. I really hope you post this. Thank you for your work, SurvivalBlog is a great knowledge source, - J. in Michigan

JWR Replies: The comment in my Precepts page that you mentioned is not a question of individuals, because there are indeed exceptional individuals, and I'm confident that you are one of them. Rather, this is a question of averages. On average, people that have the moral underpinning of the Judeo-Christian religious ethic are less likely to commit property crimes than those that don't, and statistics bear this out. For example, look at the "Property"crime rates for particular counties in California (The City and County of San Francisco, for example, has one of the lowest church attendance rates in the country). Compare that to the more religious counties of North Dakota (a "Bible Belt" state). This map is quite an interesting starting place. Sorry, but facts are facts. Property crime rates are generally higher in communities with a low ratio of church attendance. My choice to live in a tight-knit religious community is not a reflection on you as an individual. It is just a conscious choice, based upon statistical correlation and my strong conviction as a Christian, to do so. FWIW, please consider that a religious community is also the safest place for you--an atheist with morals--to live, too.

If I hypothetically had to live in New York or New Jersey, then I'd probably pick a small town with a predominance of Christians or Orthodox Jews for neighbors.

« Letter Re: Why Survivalists Should Buy Local Organic Food |Main| Letter Re: Pedal Power for Electricity Generation and Water Pumping »

Monday April 20 2009

Letter Re: The Mexican Drug Wars Come to the United States

Jim,
As the economy gets worse, crime of this sort will only increase. Small towns that have secondary and tertiary highways are not immune. Often these secondary routes parallel the primary highways that have the heaviest enforcement which leads the traffickers to use the secondary routes to evade Law Enforcement. We have had first hand experience with interstate drug traffickers in our Midwestern town of 1,300 people that has a parallel secondary highway running through it. I shudder to think what will happen to our borders, cities, and towns when bankrupt states and cities are forced to confront the stark reality of forced service reductions due to insufficient revenues. - LEO in the Midwest

« Letter Re: Highly Productive Home Gardens |Main| Note from JWR: »

Friday April 17 2009

Cooper's Color Codes and Bugging Out Before the SHTF, by H.I.C.

Colonel Jeff Cooper once wrote that he was born in another country. Born and raised in the US before the Great Depression, the country of his youth was no longer. It had been hijacked by pointy headed socialists with academic degrees and not a trace of common sense. At 50 years of age I not only agree, but maintain that the “New America” based upon a globalized economy, Federalized powers, and an Urban-centered society is dying. Our great country is dying and our great cities will burn in the funeral pyre.

Most Americans know that survival in our great cities, deserts, and marginal climate areas of the US would not be possible without continued delivery of basic Supplies (food and gasoline), Services (water, electrical power, natural gas), and Civil Order (rule of law, generally accepted currency). What they may not know is that these great cities have no great food warehouses, no great fuel tank farms, few electrical power plants, few water storage reservoirs, and they have disarmed the law abiding public at every turn. These supplies are transported by thousands of semi trucks, ships, barges, and trains every single day. If a sudden crisis disrupts transportation, if we lose the use of our interstate highways or the diesel fuel to transport supplies, everyone in these cities will either have to leave or they will die.

Recent hurricanes, recessions, and terrorist events are reminders that our modern society is fragile and that critical supplies, services, and civil order will likely be interrupted by any major event. Look at what happened to New Orleans (population 480,000) during Hurricane Katrina. More than half the population left early, but when the storm hit, tens of thousands either would not or could not leave. Now imagine these barbaric conditions in a city like Phoenix (population 2 million) or Los Angeles (population 10 million). Now imagine it happening all across the US if our oil refineries are either destroyed or the world runs out of crude oil.

Transportation in the US is totally dependent on crude oil and most of this oil comes from folks who hate us. The supplies underground and our ability to find new supplies are diminishing and no one knows how much is left. Even without the potential for a renewed terrorist attack using WMDs, or the long dreaded west coast mega-quake, our cities will not be sustainable without some new technology. Renewable power sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal can produce electricity but do not effectively power transportation. Hopefully most Americans can be sufficiently motivated to move out the cities with their families, but those who will not listen must feel.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?
I think it is a common belief by newly awaken survivalist that they can keep living in a big city until the stuff actually hits the fan and then bug out with their vehicle and all of the survival gear and prepared food. I am curious, have any of you actually tried this? Have you taken the time and effort to load your vehicle with thousands of pounds of guns, ammo, survival gear, and freeze dried food? Have you then driven through a major city, a long distance interstate trip, stopped for the night, or had car trouble? And what if you are forced to bug out without shelter and a considerable amount of food, have you really improved your chances for survival?

I have and the whole process was a pain in the . I hooked up my one ton pickup to my 5th wheel trailer, filled it with the guns, ammo, tools, extra fuel, and food storage, and the rig grossed at 18,000 lbs. Let me tell you this was not bugging out, this was crawling out. Even powered by a Cummins Diesel, nothing weighing 9 tons moves quickly or escapes over steep or narrow roads. I also tried towing an open trailer filled with a tractor and tools cross country and learned about road trash puncturing trailer tires and criminals loitering at rest stops and RV parks. Fortunately, these problems surfaced during normal times when the highways are open, fuel is available, and I was the only one freaking out. My experience is telling me that the best response is to move away from the cities before an event. Move to a more secure area now. Preposition your survival tools and food storage at a secure site before the stuff really hits the fan. Then find a way to move there your self.
I have read all the government’s emergency preparedness books talking about folks pulling together, one big nation singing Kumbaya. But I have also read the postings from folks who were late evacuating New Orleans. Many of them were threatened, robbed, and assaulted by their neighbors simply because they were better prepared. I do not know if this entitlement mentality is really that widespread, but experience suggests that Americans will get scared and will act like animals.

Deciding When to Leave; Cooper’s Colors for a Social Crisis.
Jeff Cooper also devised a series of situational awareness colors to allow his self defense students to make proper decisions and know when to use deadly force to protect their lives and family. Borrowing Cooper’s Colors for a social crisis I suggest the following:

Condition White) Circa 1981-1988: Following the Vietnam war, Watergate, and the Iran hostage crisis, the US was ready for a positive change. During the Reagan years we challenged the Soviet Union and emerged as the world’s lone supper power. Despite some evidence to the contrary, we felt that we had no reason to be concerned by terrorism. Paul Volcker tamed inflation by inducing a severe recession. We all shared the economic pain, then we shared the rewards of a growing and stable economy combined with low inflation. Social changes were being made slowly and with participation from the general public. The Government rarely took violent actions against protesters. Crime was random and quickly dealt with by law enforcement.
Tough times, but the US government was working for the People.

Condition Yellow) Circa 1989-1998: The US is struck repeatedly by terrorists at home and abroad. The Government treats this as a criminal manner. The economy fluctuates but appears to correct itself rapidly and without visible government interference. The US starts pursuing free trade and globalization treaties. Manufacturing, agricultural, and finally high wage jobs are being outsourced. High risk mortgages and investments are legalized and encouraged. Presidents Bush (I) and Clinton start talking about and building a “New World Order”. Social changes are being made to protect and benefit the people in power, without participation from the general public. The Government begins to track, infiltrate, and take deadly action against small religious groups and grass roots militias. Law abiding citizens are blamed for violent crime and gun ownership is highly regulated. The only bright spot during this decade is the results of the 1994 midterm election and the subsequent Contract with America.
A break of trust between the US Government and the People. Citizens should store guns, ammo, food, and fuel. Prepare financially, physically, and mentally for change.

Condition Orange) Circa 1999-2006: The US is struck repeatedly by terrorists at home and abroad. The Government responds by aggressive military action designed to change the conditions in countries hosting terrorists. The economy fluctuates between extremes of growth and recession, as if no one knows the true worth of these commodities and major corporations. The Government begins to spend massive amounts of money on the war and hides this spending off budget. Price increases affect the availability of food and fuel. Social changes are being made without participation of the citizens or even the US Congress. The most offensive of these changes are rammed down the throat of a disbelieving public by the courts and petty bureaucrats. The heavy handed tactics of the State and Federal Government begin expanding the number and boldness of protest groups, well ahead of their attempts to control them. Crime is increasingly organized by gangs, carried out by minors and illegal aliens, and is funded by illegal drugs. Law enforcement is not effective against this and many believe the problem is intractable.
A second break of trust. Citizens should liquidate their financial assets, purchase and store critical supplies and solar panels, and move to safer locations.

Condition Red) Circa 2007 – ????: High risk loans, derivatives, and credit default swaps cause huge financial losses and trigger irrational stimulus spending. The US Treasury and US Federal Reserve start taking up major ownership stakes in US corporations, then use this position to control the means of production. They announce plans to create a Federal domestic police force. This may be used to enforce new requirements for domestic passports, travel restrictions, and to deal with any visible protests. The Obama Administration is full of folks committed to new laws regulating guns ownership and banning the sale of effective defensive weapons, ammo, and reloading components. Large scale energy, income, and sales tax increases are planned. I believe that Americans will again be deprived from owning real [precious metals] money. Our currency will be devalued by perhaps 80% to offset the massive Federal spending. Price controls and rationing of food and fuel will be introduced by executive order. During the Great Depression, FDR banned the private holding of gold and foreign currency. US dollars (gold certificates) were replaced by Federal Reserve Notes. Many banks were closed without returning deposits to account holders and what little cash was left in the hands of the people was devalued by the Treasury by 40%.

Many folks are moving out of large cities. They are buying rural land and planting a garden. They are buying and hoarding guns, ammo, food, fuel, and looking to buy gold and silver. While economic conditions appear bad, the break of trust between the Government and the People is more reminiscent of the Civil War than the Great Depression.

Can You Make an Orderly Transition?
a) Moving Out of the City but Keeping Your Job.
Many folks simply can not leave their big city job and feel trapped. For them, moving your family out of the city and keeping your present job, and commuting back and forth may be the best interim solution. You might look at public transportation in your area and see if you could buy a home near this. Also consider owning a Jeep or a pickup that can contain survival tools, food storage, hiking boots, even a mountain bike and commute using that vehicle when you feel that a crisis could be imminent. You need to practice for this occasionally to find out how to drive home without using freeways, or clogged intersections, or having to refill your gas tank. If you plan on biking home, why not try it once a month. Find out now if it is a viable alternative.

b) Career Changes that Improve Your Preparedness.
Some friends of mine recently underwent a significant career change. They left their research position at a US government lab in California to take a college professorship in a small Midwestern town. There are many opportunities for folks to change careers and significantly improving their preparedness level without losing their career and every thing they have built. Crea