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Wednesday November 4 2009

How to Capitalize on Urine, Car Batteries, Wood Ashes, Bones and Bird Schumer, by Jeff M.

Throughout the last few centuries, mankind has been building and building up, combining raw materials and energy to create... stuff. This stuff is scattered all over urban population centers, and many of it can be used for basic life-sustaining purposes. I thought I'd write in and share some information I've gathered over the years in my work and in my hobbies, as it relates to sustaining life if you're trapped in an urban area. I'm enumerating the primitive uses of some very basic components for those interested, this wasn't meant as a guide for building any of this stuff, further research is definitely necessary and DO NOT try any lab chemistry without becoming an expert first and observing all the appropriate safety precautions. [JWR Adds: Handling strong acids and bases also necessitates wearing goggles, extra long gloves, long sleeves, a safety apron, having proper ventilation, and having an eye flushing bottle (or fixture) and neutralizers close at hand!] I hope this inspires others to share similar uses for modern waste.

Many urbanites will not have enough room to grow self-sustaining gardens in the soil in your backyard, with the limited growing season, and even if you did it would become a target for looters. Construction of a greenhouse in your backyard with adequate security may be a worthwhile compromise. Using hydroponics in your greenhouse will maximize your yield. Hydroponics requires that you're moving fluids around in a growing medium, and this movement requires electricity in the simplest setup. It also allows you to maximize your space by eliminating huge buckets of soil. One downside to hydroponics is that it requires more advanced technology, and most often an energy supply. Another downside is a requirement for more specific fertilizers.

Car batteries can be used to power your food supply and your home, a typical setup is a very sturdy shelf to hold rows of the deep cycle variant. You can calculate how much energy you'd need to power your appliances but a better setup for survival would be to only power a single DC circuit, with some very energy efficient appliances; LED lights, laptop computers, radios, flashlight battery chargers. I have a circuit wired in my basement which can be switched to backup power, so for me it would just be a matter of wiring an extension cable out to my greenhouse.

The equipment to build a battery backup system is widely available, it's very mature technology and has been very easy to afford with the increased usage of solar energy. Solar panel prices have also dropped almost 40% in the last couple of years. I recommend that someone with the cash to spend, who has already bought a long-term supply of food and other essentials, build themselves a photovoltaic backup system to keep your electronics running for years, using deep-cycle marine batteries for storage. It happens to be the cheapest form of storage, the deep cycle batteries are available from Wal-Mart and Costco at the best prices.

I recommend some form of sustainable electricity. Most fuels will go bad with time, the easiest fuel to reliably store is propane and many homes are equipped with propane and natural gas powered backup generators. Propane is extraordinarily cheap right now as well. A 300-to-500 gallon propane tank can be bought used for around $500 in most places, and propane is selling in my area for $1.79/gallon. Propane is produced from natural gas and, along with coal, are the two fossil fuels we're least likely to see a shortage of. Regarding solar, you don't need a 5,000 watt solar panel farm to power your essentials. Just one large solar panel on a pole will be enough [to provide charging] for your odds and ends DC-powered electronics.

If you intend to use scavenged car batteries for home power, you will need to come up with a scheme to charge them. If you charge a random collection of batteries off of one charger some of them may overheat and explode. You need to have an individual charging circuit for each of them, a temperature probe is good but not necessary. The best way to do this with a generator setup is with a multiple-bank charger or charging station, or with multiple charge controllers in a solar setup. It would be a good idea to have backups, so you might as well have one charge controller for every battery. If you're running a generator, it is especially important that you use a battery backup system, as it allows you to use the energy more efficiently to charge up a battery bank which you can use for days to power efficient appliances.

Another interesting thing about car batteries is what you can do with them if you're not using them for power. Car batteries contain two main ingredients, sulfuric acid and lead. Sulfuric acid is used in many industrial processes. It's a source of elemental sulfur, and these strong acids are used to convert many other substances to something usable.

Hundreds of years ago people made saltpeter for formulating black powder by urinating in a jar and adding straw to it (almost too easy, huh?). A more industrious method would be to mix straw and manure into a pile and pee on it regularly to keep it moist. This was called a "niter-bed". After a year, run water through it and then run the resulting mixture through a wood ash filter, and then air dry the resulting mixture in the sun. Any failed batches could always be used as [the basis for a larger quantity of] fertilizer. Your urine contains nitrogen in the form of a chemical called urea, which means it also makes a good fertilizer (1 part urine and 10 parts water immediately applied makes a decent fertilizer). The urine/straw mixture would change over the course of a few months to contain nitrates, mostly a chemical called potassium nitrate, or saltpeter. Wood ash contains mostly potassium compounds and can be used to convert remaining nitrates to potassium nitrate. Potassium nitrate is a powerful oxidizer. Mixed with a fuel it forms the ingredients of many fireworks such as bottle rockets. Black powder is made with a mixture of 75% potassium nitrate, 15% charcoal, and 10% sulfur. Sulfur can be found on the electrodes of the car batteries, or it can be produced through electrolysis of the sulfuric acid. A good rocket fuel is 60% potassium nitrate and 40% powdered sugar, should you have a need for rockets, perhaps as a signal flare.

You can buy potassium nitrate over the counter from the hardware store (Lowe's and Home Depot). It's known as stump remover and is available in 1lb bottles. If you're doing that last minute shopping, it might be a good idea to swing by the pesticides shelf and buy all the stump remover while you're getting your fertilizers and everything. Potassium nitrate has an NPK rating of 13-0-38, and can also be used to combat high blood pressure.

In the 1890s, widespread use of "smokeless powder" was adopted, which is about three times as powerful as simple black powder. This was a result of a substance called nitro-cellulose or guncotton, which is simply a mixture of nitric acid and cotton, ground down to a fine powder. Nitric acid is a very useful substance. Mixed with hexamine fuel tablets (Esbit fuel), it forms [the equivalent of ] RDX explosive. Mixed with glycerine, it forms nitroglycerine and with added stabilizers forms TNT. The most useful application of nitric acid though is the smokeless powder, known today commonly as gunpowder, which is a mixture of nitrocellulose and a number of other proprietary ingredients. The government has made it difficult to purchase nitric acid without a valid reason. You can make it out of sulfuric acid, from the car batteries, and potassium nitrate, from the niter beds. You will need some basic lab equipment to do this, a glass distillery connected to a vacuum pump (a vacuum distillery), and a hot plate. With the leftover parts of the car battery, mainly lead [and wheel weights as a source of antimony for hardening], you can mold lead bullets. The lab equipment required to perform some of these reactions is useful in many other processes, such as an ethanol distillery, so it may be something you'd want, regardless. Take care that you don't cross into illegal territory with your experimenting. Potassium nitrate and black powder aren't controlled substances, but at some point gunpowder becomes classified as an explosive and requires a permit to manufacture. [JWR Adds a Strong Proviso: This summary information is provided for educational purposes only. EXTREME safety measures must be taken, and all the legalities and zoning issues must be researched, permits obtained, et cetera. Also, be advised that the instructions presented in many of the published references on do-it-yourself explosives making have insufficient safety margins. For example, the set of directions on making nitroglycerin in the book The Anarchist Cookbook, could best be described as a "recipe for disaster." It will get you killed or at least maimed, in short order!]

Another interesting thing I'll mention is that handgun calibers and muzzleloaders are better suited for lead bullets with no copper jacket, since they travel through the barrel slower they can be made softer. Forming a copper jacket around a bullet is difficult and expensive. [JWR Adds: One notable exception to this is making jackets for .22 caliber bullets, which can be made with discarded .22 LR brass and lead wire, using commercially available forming dies.] I think it's also worthwhile to own at least one muzzle-loading black-powder rifle, and bullet forming equipment. Manufacturing guncotton is not nearly as easy as black powder. You can no longer readily buy black powder [in gun shops] today, it is less stable and more expensive to ship. Even the modern muzzle-loader propellants (like Pyrodex) are smokeless powders. So, you may find black powder is all people are using one of these days, as they can make it in their backyard. Either stockpile thousands of primers or use a flintlock style rifle.

I mentioned that urine can be used as a fertilizer, nowhere is this more true than in a hydroponic system. Plants need three main chemicals to grow, all three of which must be in a soluble form. urine is easily the best source of nitrogen in soluble form. Potassium can be gathered from wood ash easily by running fluids through it. Phosphorous is the hard part, and many fruiting plants need phosphorus, so it is the area where you focus the most energy. Bone has phosphorus in it, and a commonly used fertilizer for plants is bone meal in the form of calcium phosphate. Bone meal has an NPK rating of 4-12-0. Bat guano is one of the best sources of phosphorous, and bird droppings ("Bird Schumer") can similarly provide a good supply. Be careful with bird droppings though, many contain diseases especially pigeons. You may want to boil it first. Match heads can also be used for their phosphorus content, if for some reason you have thousands of matches with no barter value.

Back to urine fertilizers: When you urinate into the water your urine and many other nitrate fertilizers begin to break down into ammonia, which needs to be filtered out. If you've ever maintained a koi pond you know this can be accomplished with the use of a bio-filter. Another way to do it is with an aquaculture setup, which means connecting a fish hatchery to a hydroponics setup. The fish and the plants thrive off of each other. This has evolved into it's own industry called aquaponics, and has proven to be a commercial success, mainly to serve as leafy plant production on top of a primarily fish producing setup. If you get sick of eating that dried corn, try feeding it to a 55-gallon barrels full of Tilapia. Tilapia has been the preferred fish stock as it will eat a wider range of things, but the temperature must be kept warm. It's possible that even in colder climates a greenhouse would provide sufficient trapped heat to keep the fish alive.

Many of these techniques can form the foundations of exciting hobbies such as model rocketry, aquaculture, hydroponics and gunsmithing. I strongly encourage you to absorb some of these hobbies in your life, if they appeal to you. [Do plenty of research, and get lots of practice,] especially when it comes to something sensitive like fish or hydroponics. Beginner's mistakes could spell the end of you if you're depending on this for your urban survival. I've opted to fortify my suburban home on a quarter acre and optimize it for survival, with over two years of food storage for me and my family to get started and enough energy to cook it. If this is all you can afford then make the most of it!

Letter Re: Making Do at a Rural Vermont Retreat

James,
While I could wish to be west of the Mississippi, my wife and I will have to retreat where we are. My elderly parents are nearby, and my wife has made it very clear she has moved for the last time. Vermont is where we will be for the foreseeable future.

We live within a rural town of approximately 2,000 residents. We are about seven miles outside of a twin-city with a population of 28,000. We lack like-minded neighbors both in faith and preparedness. We hope our far-flung family will be able to rally here, but are realistic about their chances. Not an ideal location, but we work with what God have given us.

We own 60 acres, mostly wooded with some pasture, up and three miles out of town on a dirt road. Our home is close to the middle of the land, at the end of an 1,100 foot driveway and it is not visible from the road. The driveway could be easily blocked if necessary. We have cleared good areas around the house without giving up our privacy. We heat with any of three sources, wood, pellets, or oil. Our neighbors include a medical doctor and a nurse/midwife and two miles down the hill is a dairy farm with 400 head.

We have three spring-fed ponds, (one is stocked with trout), a deep artesian well and a developed spring with a concrete cistern. We use a small greenhouse to extend our short growing season and have apple trees and blueberry, raspberry and blackberry bushes. We can and dry fruits and veggies, I hunt and we both cook. We have about 18 months of food in storage (dehydrated, canned, frozen and grains) and expand our larder as we are able. We used to be cold weather tent- campers and have all of the equipment that goes along with that sport in both propane and white gas.
Our arsenal is varied, deep and redundant. It includes four muzzleloaders and supplies; they are hunting and hobby rifles, but they will still put food on the table or provide defense in a pinch.

We have much on our “things to do” list. Fuel storage is a problem in quantity due to permitting issues. We do have the fuel oil tank in the cellar for the tractor, but gasoline will be limited to our cans. Our only generator is small, only able to power the pellet stove, a couple of lights and a radio. We do hope to add solar in the future. Our home is not as defensible as I would like due to glass windows and doors and we lack man-power for long term survival.

We will never be as ready as want to be, but we will be as ready as we are able. Our greatest assets are Jesus and each other. - B.C.

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Tuesday November 3 2009

Letter Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse

Mr. Rawles,
I am a retired Army warrant officer working for the Army teaching Electronic Warfare and Signal Intelligence. I only started reading your blog last week. It's addictive, but slightly disturbing.

Having worked for the Army for 27 years in a number of different failed countries I may have a unique perspective on survival that I would like to share with your readers. I believe most of the "survivalist community" is vastly underestimating the impact that other humans are going to have on their plans. Hunkering down and waiting for everyone to die off is a simplistic plan and I believe has almost no chance of working. You may be able to hide your retreat, but you can't hide the land it sits on. That land itself may become a scarce commodity if the US transitions to an agrarian economy.

Food is the key resource. Most communities are at risk because they simply don't have enough calories stored to get them through any kind of crisis. But, storage is no more than limited capital to allow people time to grow more food. Food production requires land....if your retreat is sitting on farmable land, it will be a scarce resource.

Carrying capacity of the US using non-petroleum farming techniques is far lower than most of your readers probably think. Also, most areas of the US, especially cities, don't have anywhere near enough farm-able land to go back to some kind of agrarian pattern. Without public infrastructure and modern transportation, we are going to experience a huge die-off caused mostly by starvation. In a total collapse scenario without immediate restoration of the economy, basically everyone who lives in a city is doomed unless they can take over some kind of farm land.

If you live in an area without enough farm land, you will be a "have not". Period. I don't care how much food you have stored in your basement.

Here is my key point. These teeming millions will not just starve and go away. I believe that anyone who thinks they can defend a working farm against raiders is deluding themselves.

1. People are dangerous. They are the most dangerous animal on earth. You can never lose sight of that! In almost any society breakdown scenario you can think of, you will be surrounded by starving predators that are much more dangerous than tigers. In the USA, every one of them (or at least the vast majority) will be armed with firearms. The ones currently without firearms will obtain them by any means necessary including looting government armories. These are thinking-breathing and highly motivated enemies.

2. Raiders, defined as "outlaw looting groups" may be a threat for a very short period, but I really don't see groups of more than 4-6 ever forming...they will be quickly replaced by much larger groups of "citizens" doing essentially the same things, but much better armed and organized.

An Example: A few hours after Albania's political crisis in 1998, (which was caused by a national lottery scam), almost every adult male in the country procured an AKM from government stocks. Armories were the first targets looted. I flew into Tirana packing a pistol and a sack of money, naively thinking I would be able to move around the country and defend myself. What a laugh. Everyone had me outgunned, and the vast majority of them had military training of some sort. I never got out of the capital city. Every road seemed to have roadblocks every few miles, blocked by armed local citizens.

3. Without central authority, people don't just starve and go away. They form their own polities (governments). These polities are often organized around town or city government or local churches. They may call it a city counsel or a committee or a senate. The bottom line is, "We The People" will do whatever "We" have to do to survive. And that specifically includes taking your storage goods.

4. When (not if) a polity forms near you, you had better be part of that process. If not, you will be looked upon as a "resource" instead of a member of the community. The local polity will pass a resolution (or whatever) and "legally" confiscate your goods. If you resist, they will crush you. They will have the resources of a whole community to draw upon including weapons, vehicles, manpower, electronics, tear gas, etc. Every scrap of government owned equipment and weaponry will be used, by someone. Anyone who plans to hold out against that kind of threat is delusional.

5. The local polity that forms is almost certainly going to make mistakes. Some of them are lethal blunders. Odds are, the locals will probably not have given a lot of serious thought to facing long term survival. They will squander resources and delay implementing necessary actions (like planting more food or working together to defend a harvest). They may even decide to take in thousands of refugees from nearby cities, thereby almost insuring their own longer term starvation.

A much better approach is to be an integral part of the community and use the combined resources of the community to defend all of your resources together. This would be much easier if a high percentage of the community were like minded folks who were committed to sharing and cooperating. Because any community with food is likely going to have to somehow survive while facing even larger polities, like nearby cities, counties or even state governments. Don't expect to face a walking hoard of lightly armed, starving individuals. Expect to face a professional, determined army formed by a government of some kind.

A small farming community can probably support a few outsiders, but not very many. The community will need to politically deal with outside polities or they will face a war they can't win. Hiding the fact that you are self sufficient is going to be hard. You can't hide farm land.

Defending your resources against the nearby city will be even harder. You may be able to save the community by buying protection with surplus food...if you have prepared for that. You may indeed have to fight, but stalling that event for even a year could mean the difference between living and being overwhelmed. In any case, your community needs to go into the crisis with a plan. You may be able to shape that plan if you become a community leader instead of a "resource". With Very Kind Regards, - R.J.

JWR Replies: You've summed up some essential truths quite succinctly. Your points square nicely with the scenario in my first novel ("Patriots"). It also matches my premise of gemeinschaft kampfgeist, in the context of cohesion in the "we/they paradigm."

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Monday November 2 2009

The Flash to Bang Count: Observations on the October Indonesian Asteroid Airburst

A few days ago, The Telegraph reported:

"An asteroid that exploded in the Earth's atmosphere with the energy of three Hiroshima bombs this month has reignited fears about our planet's defenses against space impacts. On 8 October, the rock crashed into the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The asteroid was around 20 meters across and hit the Earth's atmosphere at 45,000 mph. The blast was heard by monitoring stations 10,000 miles away, according to a report by scientists at the University of Western Ontario. Scientists are concerned that it was not spotted by any telescopes, and that had it been larger it could have caused a disaster. Luckily, due to the height of the explosion - estimated at between 15 and 20 km (nine to 12 miles) above sea level - no damage was caused on the ground."

Later reports mentioned and estimated 5 to 10 meter diameter for the asteroid. Let's consider the implications of this event. If this had happened in the skies over a First World nation, or if the explosion had taken places at ground level (or near ground level, a la the 1908 Tunguska event), then there would be a huge clamor and calls for early asteroid impact prediction, and greater preparedness. But since this took place above what most consider a backwater nation, and there was no visible damage on the ground to photograph, this news story was resigned to "minor headline" status. And what if the object had been 100 meters in diameter, instead of 20?

We've previously discussed asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits--also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs)-- and the consequences of potential impacts in SurvivalBlog.

Asteroid impacts are one of those "low likelihood but high disruption" events. The chances of one occurring in our lifetimes is relatively low, but if one were to happen, the implications would be huge. In anticipation of future asteroid impacts, here are some factors to consider:

  • An asteroid impact could cause short-term climate change that could in turn cause multi-year crop failures on a hemispheric or even global scale. This means that it would be prudent to have multiple years food storage
  • The importance of living in inland areas. Let's face it: coastal areas anywhere on earth are vulnerable to mega-tsunamis, if you factor-in the threat of asteroid impacts. Unless there is some massive intervening terrain, don't live at less than 500 feet above sea level if you must live within 25 miles of an ocean. A 300+ foot high tsunami might seem hard to imagine, but just ask an astrophysicist. It is possible, and in fact there is some geologic evidence that that mega-tsunamis have occurred in the past 6,000 years.
  • Never underestimate the implications of mass hysteria and misdirected government reaction to a crisis. News of imminent crop failures might inspire executive orders mandating the collection of "hoarded" food. Hint: This will probably include food that you started storing years ago--long before any imminent threat warning or post-incident panic buying. So I must again warn my readers that it is wise to keep a low profile about your preparations.

I have been studying the threat of asteroid impacts for many years. NEOs represent a "wild card"scenario. Since a fairly complete orbital path tracking database probably won't exist for 20+ years, this threat will remain an imponderable for the foreseeable future. Until a fully-populated database is developed, this will remain a quasi-voodoo science. The Indonesian event illustrates just how easy it is to get blind-sided. And even after we have complete tracking data, it will be decades longer before we start to proactively develop a program to "nudge" the larger NEO asteroids into safer orbits.

But again, keep in mind that this is one of those "low actuarial risk/high consequence" events. Plan accordingly.

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Sunday November 1 2009

Letter Re: Comments of Storing Coffee and Grinding Whole Wheat Flour

Jim:
Buryl misses the point to storing coffee. Freeze dried blocks of ground coffee wrapped in aluminum foil pouches and vacuum packed is my preferred method, but I also store instant coffee crystals.

I recommend not getting addicted to coffee. I can take it or leave it. But it is a wonderful trade/barter item. Especially after six months or a year or more have gone by after the SHTF and there is no coffee to be found anywhere, a stash of coffee will be good as gold with its purchasing power. Storing jerked meats and especially honey as barter items are favorites of mine. Of course one has to be ultra careful who he trades food and ammo with. I would never trade with anyone I didn't know or not from my home area.

I also recommend stockpiling ammo, especially 22 Long Rifle (LR) ammo, because I think it will become the currency post SHTF. It is light, easily portable, and you can carry a bunch of it. If each cartridge has about the same purchasing power after the SHTF as a dollar has now. And with the scarcity of such ammo and supplies post-SHTF, I think 22 LR ammo will be worth its equivalent weight in silver. People that now can't afford to stockpile gold can still stockpile ammo, especially 22 LR ammo at 3 or 4 cents per round. - R.L.

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Saturday October 31 2009

The Dumpster List, by InfoRodeo

Because of our financial constraints, aggravated by the economy and rural area we now live, my family cannot afford to own a second “retreat” home, nor do we have much land on which to build a shed or store much of anything. As a boy, my parents didn’t have much money, and through a mix of my dad’s “fix it or make do” attitude, the scout motto “be prepared” and my newfound need for better frugality, I’ve made a kind of checklist that every non-food purchase my wife and I make must go through, and it’s jokingly called the Dumpster list. Each point of the dumpster list should be met as well as possible, if that point is applicable. The list helps us stretch our dollars, limit our output of refuse, and choose items that are easier to transport and maintain should we be forced to evacuate or relocate during an emergency event.

DURABILITY.  I try to purchase things that are built strong and proven strong. I buy denim or rip-stop pants. A lot of items I purchase are “military surplus” or Mil-spec items, because they are meant to take rough treatment and last a long time. Sometimes an item can be made stronger/more resistant/durable for a small charge. Having some sort of puncture-stop material added to our bike tires or spending the extra money for some sort of hard-shell case for a piece of essential gear would be examples of adding durability.  

UTILITY
rather than Fashion. Cargo pants are not always in style, but the extra pockets and (often) durable nature make them useful. Military-style clothing, available from surplus stores, is usually made in “large, medium, small”-type sizes, but have straps, drawstrings and Velcro to make them a perfect fit. Hiking or “combat” boots may look a little out of place or extreme, but they are made for walking and climbing, are waterproof, and often breathe just as well as tennis shoes. If you get some with steel toes, you are eliminating a lot of toe-injuries that could come from tripping, dropping something, or kicking old logs or stones when trying to carve out a shelter or forage for food. A junky old diesel truck might be ugly, but offers several benefits over a nice new car or SUV.

MULTIPLE USE
. Our 72-hour kits (which go in the vehicles whenever we go somewhere) contain several items, most of which have multiple uses. I always carry a “Leatherman”-style multi-tool, for example, because I frequently need a knife to cut something with, a screwdriver to tighten something with, or pliers/wire cutters to bend or trim cable or wire. I carry an “entrenching tool” that works as a shovel, rudimentary saw, and pick. I large iron Wok is my favorite cooking utensil, because its depth allows me to boil water or heat oil, but wide mouth makes it easy to also cook things that need to be more spread out, like eggs or fish fillets. Its handles make it easy to be tied to a pack when we go hiking. When I buy my heavy-duty clothing, I try to choose colors or styles that allow them to double as nice church pants or everyday wear. I wear “web belts” because they adjust to my comfort with more precision than a regular hole-punched leather belt, and this adjustability allows them to be useful for other things, like tying down sleeping bags, bundles of wood, or to be used as tourniquets. The “teeth” in the buckle are also suitable for emergency scraping and small-scale sawing.

PORTABILITY
. Strong but light materials are a great blessing. My primary firearms are lightweight but strong. One of the few camping items we ever splurged on were our ultra-lightweight sleeping bags, because they can fit into a very small space. Though we have no unrealistic plans of “heading to the hills” with the rest of civilization in a TEOTWAWKI situation, keeping our load light helps us be prepared for last-minute relocation or evacuation in the event of an emergency. Having lightweight material in a pack also greatly extends your ability to trek longer distances because it puts less strain on your body (which is essential for those who are “out of shape” or injured.

REPAIRABILTY/SALVAGEABILITY
. I try to acquire items that are easy to fix or have easy-to find spare parts. Where I live, for example, there are not a lot of BMW dealers, so it doesn’t make much sense for our only car to be a BMW, even if we can afford it. It takes to long to receive or locate parts, and some part sizes are made for tools I don’t own. The same goes for old fashioned “tube radios” or other items made from parts no longer manufactured/manufactured only by specialty shops. Fabric items (tents, packs, tarps) should be resistant to mildew but also easy to repair with sewing items on hand. Items that are less likely to rust are obviously preferred, but I also try to stay away from weak plastics that might break or chip (because plastic is more difficult to repair than wood/,metal for the average person). I try to learn the “ins and outs’ of every new item we get, so it can be repaired if need be.

Is it TRADEABLE? Will the item be of value for trade in an emergency situation? Some things like ammunition, gasoline, food and other supplies are good bartering tools. Other items, like vehicles, firearms and entertainment items can be “traded in” or sold at a depreciated rate (or, if you’re lucky, at an appreciated rate) when you hit hard times, need to leave town, or simply no longer need the item. We do our best not to fool ourselves into thinking anything – including firearms – are an “investment”, because it is safer to be prepared for a bad day and pleased by a good one than it is to be unprepared.  

ENERGY
. What kind of batteries does it need? Can it be powered from a 12 VDC car adapter? Solar power? What kind of fuel does the vehicle use? Will it run on something else? What is the likelihood of that fuel/battery/power source being available in an emergency? How long will the battery/fuel last before it goes bad? What are the best ways to store them? Perhaps the most useful question: is there a hand-powered version available instead? If the item is battery powered (a flashlight, for example), I try to find one that is most efficient in its power usage.

REDUNDANCY
. When possible, I like to acquire two or more of certain items, especially if I like them or they tend to wear out after awhile (clothing, boots). Having duplicate equipment also allows you to use one for parts if parts are unavailable elsewhere. Some items are also good for barter. Others are good to leave at home while you take the other on the road. Some of my firearms purchases have been driven by the type of ammunition for this purpose – I’d rather be able to use what I have in multiple weapons than to have to keep multiple types of ammunition stocked.

I don’t include “Price” in the checklist because I’ve learned (contrary to what my parents tried to teach me) that most of the time, paying more for a high quality item saves more money in the long run than buying a cheap item, which have to be repaired or replaced it frequently. As long as we aren’t charging it to a credit card (or creating other debt) and are living within our means, I try not to think much about price. We also do most of our non-immediate shopping on the internet, because it is easier to find exactly what we need than making do with what we find at the local hardware or department store, and the prices (including shipping) are much better. 

By running our potential purchases through the Dumpster list, we’ve actually modified some other areas of our life, and it has helped us to generate less trash, have less blinking-light/electronic noise toys for our children, and I haven’t had to buy any new clothes in over a year now. Though I thought there would be more potential for “hard work” as a result, we’ve found that by being more picky about our purchases, as well as giving them proper maintenance, we’ve actually had a lot less break-downs to deal with and our “free” time has actually increased.

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Thursday October 29 2009

Letter Re: Open Enrollment for Many Medical Savings Plans

Dear Mr. Rawles,

Greetings! I saw a blog letter mentioning FSA (Flexible Spending Accounts)-one medical plan that helps the average person. Basically, one’s employer (private, public, etc.) has some amount taken out before taxes and this money is put into a plan with a pre-set amount that must be used by the end of the plan year.

Okay, what many people do not know is that IRS laws allow the following:

Once the plan is started, the full year's funds are present, even if you have not had that total amount saved up yet. Example: I set the plan to $1,000, and at the start of my plan $20 is taken each paycheck (50 weeks). But, I can start applying the plan immediately for the full $1,000. These funds are used to reimburse co-pays, over the counter drugs, reading glasses, or other prescription and generic [medication] costs.

Here are two important points I found out last summer:

First, the medical supplies reimbursed for by this plan include medical supplies, including Quik-Clot, Celox, (Yep! Even the Quik-clot for nose bleeds). Other first aid supplies (usually not found in the local drug store-but commonly found in survival catalogs) are covered (check with the FSA firm handling the reimbursements first!).

I got lots of Band-Aids, Celox, and Quik-clot this summer.

Oh yes, my former employer admitted (yes, I called both the FSA company and my employer at city hall to confirm), that due to IRS laws, a person can access the entire amount for that year, get reimbursed for all of it, and leave employment before the completion of employee payments are made-and no refund is required from the employee by either the former employer or the FSA company! This may prove useful for many people who have these plans and think that TEOTWAWKI is coming soon. [JWR Adds: But purchasing supplies without the intent to fully fund a FSA would be unconscionable.]

Also, real survival medical supplies can be obtained (again, check with the FSA first!) with the plan covering the expenses. (From your pre-tax dollars, of course!).

Food for thought. - L.F. R.

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Thursday October 22 2009

Lessons Learned from Hurricanes Ike, Rita, and Katrina, by TiredTubes

In September, 2008, Hurricane Ike--a Category 4 hurricane--pounded the Gulf Coast of the southern US. Some coastal communities like Crystal Beach no longer really exist. Inland, life was severely disrupted. For those of us on the South Coast hurricanes are a frequent reality. We were quite well prepared, but used the disruptions and dislocations as a test and opportunity to tune up our preparations.

1. Be ready to help others and to accept help We didn't need much during Ike, but the power went out before a neighbor finished boarding up his house. My 1 KW inverter, hooked up to his idling truck provide the juice for a Skilsaw and a few lights; allowing him to finish. Usually it is skills and not "stuff" that helps others and yourself. Besides strengthening a neighborly friendship, the number of damaged houses was probably reduced by one.

2. Keep your stuff squared away.. I repaired a few generators during and after Ike. I observed that every one suffering from lack of use; i.e. gasoline that resembled turpentine in the carburetor. People were at a complete loss to understand this. My daugher-in-law owned one of the generators that I repaired. She ignored my admonition to change the dirty oil ASAP and then once every 50 hours. Early in the next week it [ran out of oil and] threw a rod. She was in the dark for another week. Just a $2.99 quart of oil would have saved discomfort, ruined food, etc.
 
My portable genset, loaned to my daughter, was ready to go;  fresh oil, filters, valves set, exercised, load tested. It started on the first try. I came to check it and change it's oil as soon as it was safe to travel. The first thing that I did was turn it so the exhaust faced away from the house! She had placed it so that the starter rope was in a convenient spot. At least she had, like I had asked, chained and locked it to a foundation pier.

After every hurricane Darwin gets a few through accidental carbon monoxide poisoning. Don't join them. If you have a generator, get a carbon monoxide detector in case the wind changes and wafts exhaust in your windows.

Our own [permanently-installed] genset uses natural gas (a tri-fuel generator) which in the majority of cases is superior and much cheaper to operate. Over the 11 days that we didn't have power it consumed $100 worth of natural gas. I estimate that an equivalent amount of gasoline would have cost more than $300. I stopped it every 75 hours for oil and filter. If your genset doesn't have an hour meter, then add one. There are some inexpensive self contained hour meters made for lawn equipment that work very well and require no hard wiring. It's really the only practical way to keep track of operating time, without which, intelligent maintenance is impossible.

I noticed that many generators, some still in the box, on Craigslist following Hurricane Ike at bargain basement prices. I recommended to a friend he latch onto one of these and purchase a dual-fuel gasoline/natural gas carburetor] kit. Ants can profit from short-sighted grasshoppers.

It goes without saying have all your vehicles filled up and serviced so they can be depended upon with out much attention. Pay particular attention to cooling systems, oil changes, tire pressures, belts and battery terminals.

Develop a pre-event SOP: When we hear of a hurricane in the Gulf, we pick up loose items like branches that can be thrown by high winds and cause damage (aviators call this rubbish FOD), trim trees, check prescriptions, recharge everything rechargeable, treat the swimming pool with "shock" chlorine, get all the laundry and dishes done, get all the trash out for pickup, take “before” pictures, etc., etc., etc.

3. Have backups for your backups. The portable generator above was our backup to the natural gas-fueled genset. Then an inverter and ups. After that is a 100 Watt solar array I've been tinkering with to provide power for security lighting,etc.

My daughter spent up to two hours a day foraging gas, mostly waiting in lines. She found out that the problem with gasoline-fuel generators is gasoline! It's expensive, in short supply (when it is needed most), and it takes gas to go and get gas! Needless to say I rounded up the parts and the portable is now a dual fuel machine. Had it been able to use natural gas then she could have stayed home and been one less person waiting in line. And the machine still retains the capability to burn gasoline!

Since gasoline became hard to come by (it was impossible to get for a week after Rita) but diesel fuel was plentiful we did any necessary traveling in my old diesel Mercedes (which is EMP proof, BTW).

One important word on generators: Treat yours like it is the last one you'll ever get. Try and get a good one, I prefer either a Honda or Briggs Vangard engine. My Vangard portable is approx 10 years old and absolutely dependable. The difference is methodical maintenance. Keep the manuals, and read 'em ! Keep the oil changed, keep a fresh spark plug, keep spare [oil, air, and fuel] filters. Most importantly run it under load once a month. Unless it's new, pull off the cowling and clean all the dirt and dust from fins on the cylinder jug. Closely examine the starter rope, the fuel lines, et cetera. Replace 'em if they ain't perfect.

If you get a permanently installed generator carefully consider installing a manual transfer switch and other upgrades. With the exception of automatic "exercising" fully automatic generators these add a layer of complication and cost.

Don't store gasoline in the machine other than enough for one periodic test run. Develop a ritual on test runs: such as every other payday, or the last Saturday in the month, to reduce it to a ritual. I run mine monthly whilst cutting the back yard lawn. (The mower makes more noise.)

For storage between test runs: On portable gensets [with the ignition off, slowly ] pull the cord until you can feel that the engine is at the top of the compression stroke. This is where the engine feels like you are pulling it through a "detent". It puts the piston at the top of the bore and closes both valves. This protects the cylinder from moisture. If you store gasoline then use stabilizer, after six months burn it in your car and replace it. Few experiences are worse that trying to clean out a carburetor by a dim flashlight whilst being consumed alive by salt marsh mosquitoes. Trust me on this. BTW, I've had better results storing "winter" blended gas, since t has more light fractions and starts easier year round.

If you use gas cans; stick with metal, preferably safety cans. Plastics are slightly permeable and it will go bad much faster in a plastic can. On that note, [in humid climates] don’t keep spare spark plugs with the machine. This is because in outdoor storage the insulators can absorb moisture [and the metal parts can corrode]. Keep them inside or in a sealed can with some silica gel. An old one-quart paint can is ideal.

If you have a dual-fuel machine, then break the engine in on gasoline and make sure it operates properly on both fuels under load. Keep the necessary connectors for gas operation on the machine so that you don't have to go searching for that 3/8ths-inch pipe nipple with a flashlight.

Use high quality oils, and have enough. Don't forget to also store plenty of 2-stroke [fuel mixing] oil and chain oil if you intend to use a chainsaw. Maybe store some extra for your neighbors that are less prudent. I use Rotella brand synthetic oil and Wix brand filters, and have had good results with them.

Make sure you have enough oil, filters and plugs for at least two weeks (336 hours), or longer. Don't forget about your equipment after the crisis is over: There are valves to set, oil and plugs to change, etc. Even if you own two generators and have enough flashlights, automatic emergency lights, et cetera, things can, and may likely go wrong. Small children usually do not take kindly to being plunged into total darkness. Unless it is TEOTWAWKI, keep the candles in the cupboard, especially if there are small children about.

4. Double your plans for helping other people. Several relatives from coastal areas evacuated to our house (approximately 50 miles inland). I keep a 55 gallon drum of stabilized gasoline to fill up their cars to get them home. This was a lesson learned after the Rita evacuation cluster. How much food you will go through will surprise you. It finally dawned upon us that we almost always eat dinner (lunch to you Northerners) and sometimes breakfast away from home. So what we consumed whilst hunkered down seemed out of proportion.

We also sent some food home with people to hold them over. I was able to "lend" a retired neighbor enough generated power to keep his freezer, television, and fan going. He was genuinely happy. This also meant that he was one less person in line for ice, food, and so forth.

5. Keep a dial up phone line around, after 24 hours the cell phone tower generators started running out of propane, the cable modem (and the cable) went down with the power. Remember how to make that dial-up modem work.

If you're not a Ham radio operator, then find out where the local hams conduct their emergency nets, and listen on your shortwave radio (HF) or scanner (2-meter and 440 band) and you'll know a lot more that the local television news truck can find out.

If you have cable television, then keep a traditional antenna handy. If you live near a major market the local AM news station, then it is probably a good bet. Have a good UPS, plug the computer and the desk lamp into it. If you have a cordless phone, plug it into the UPS too. The UPS will take the "bumps" out of the generator's power; your computer will thank you. Make sure you test the UPS periodically by plugging in a 100 Watt lamp and pulling the plug on the UPS. I find I need to replace that UPS battery about every 2-to-3 years.

6. Plan for the guests. Have plenty of soap, have a small flashlight (preferably with rechargeable batteries) for each guest. Have things other than television to keep youngsters occupied. Try and get plenty of rest. You'll probably be plenty busy after you can poke your head out again. In this vein don't forget dishwashing supplies, laundry supplies, baby supplies, etc. If it's a predictable event such as a hurricane, have all the dishes and laundry done. before it hits.

A television in a room by itself will keep the racket contained from those who want to read, play games or just sleep. If you have the space, then a “quiet room” where  people can just rest, read, be alone, have some privacy or get a fussy to baby to sleep cuts down on contagious stress.

7. Make sure you are medically prepared. Have a rather complete first aid kit that includes a backboard and splinting materials. There will be plenty of cuts,scrapes, bruises, sunburns and sore muscles in the aftermath. Have Band-Aids, 4x4s, neosporin, peroxide etc. Have plenty of acid reducer and immodium on hand (stress and unfamiliar cooking), have at least two weeks of prescription drugs on hand [and preferably much more for any chronic health issues]. Have a good assortment of Tylenol, cold and sinus preparations, BenGay [muscle ointment], good  multivitamins, etc.

8.Be extra, extra, extra careful. You getting sick or more likely injured can really mess things up for everyone you have prepared for. Not to mention that the local fire/ambulance is probably already overtaxed. Be extremely careful handling fire and fuels. A lot of us are not entirely fluent in using chainsaws, small engines, fixing roofs, trimming trees and moving debris.[JWR Adds: safety equipment including heavy gloves, kevlar chainsaw safety chaps, and a combination safety helmet with face shield and muffs are absolute "musts"!] Don't get in a hurry unless there is a threat to life. Be hyper cautious, be very aware of your surroundings and things that can go wrong. Don’t toil alone. Make sure you have a clear path to beat a hasty retreat if things go wrong. Wear those gloves, safety glasses, boots and maybe a hard hat.

Don't overtax yourself. Getting a fallen the tree off of the roof today avails you little if it triggers a heart attack or heat stroke. Ask God's assistance and start over tomorrow.

Keep fire extinguishers near the gas generator, in the kitchen, and near the camp stove.

Avoid using candles at all costs, and absolutely prohibit smoking indoors for the duration. Have more than enough battery smoke detectors around.

9. Be ready to make temporary repairs.. The missing shingles, damaged windows, etc. Have some plywood, a few 2x4s, some Visqueen polyethylene sheeting, batting boards, duct tape, a tarp, some nails, and so forth around. If you happen to have a good cordless drill, then you'll find sheet rock and deck screws are very superior to nails. If you're squared away then you already have this stuff , but a neighbor might be in need, so buy extra.

Debris creates flat tires for quite some time after many events. Have a tire plug kit and a 12 VDC compressor in each vehicle. Repairs to structures, especially roof repairs guarantee nails in tires. Be ready for them..

Have everything rechargeable recharged. Make sure you have some traditional non-power tools, I have a handsaw that I've had for decades, a good bow saw, ax, maul, sledge and an old eggbeater style hand drill still get regular use.

10. If I had my choice of just one utility it would be running water. Fortunately where we reside is served by a well run rural utility district which has prepared well for hurricanes. Failing this, in addition to stored water I have a portable gas utility pump (Robin brand) that can pressurize our water system from our pool and has sufficient capacity for a fire line. The pool got a good jolt of shock a day before the storm hit.

11.Keep some cash money handy. For a few days [with no utility power] there were no functional ATMs, and no way to use credit or debit cards.

12. Keep a low profile. About a week after Ike a passerby indignantly asked "How'd you get your lights turned on?" This showed his ignorance on several levels. He seemed to think someone just had to flip a switch downtown and "shazam!" his lights are on. I couldn't make him understand there has to be an unbroken physical link between a power plant and consumer, this seemed to aggravate his obvious helplessness. Telling him that we had been making our own juice seemed to irritate him. I wonder who he voted for? People with this mindset (that the world owes them something) could be a genuine liability in a real catastrophe. (BTW on a news show during a piece about energy, I actually heard a lady refer to natural gas as “just another dirty fossil fuel”) and not be challenged on the facts. Little minds scare me. I think that the hyper-liberals would love to use the heavy hand of government to force the ants take care of the grasshoppers.  Keep a low profile. The best advice I ever heard on the subject (I believe it was Howard J. Ruff ) was to "keep your principles public and your actions private".

13. Keep a notebook, keep a record of what happened, but especially keep a record of preps you overlooked or screwed up, or stuff you ran out of, or skills that need to be added or honed. That's where most of the preceding information came from! Also keep tabs on what's scarce after an event. Gas was scarce, but diesel plentiful after Rita. In contrast, after Ike there was plenty of fuel, but few operating stations due to lack of power. (There was a "mandatory evacuation" during Rita which turned out to be a fatal traffic jam for a few poor souls which quickly emptied the filling station tanks.) Out our way the local Wal-Mart made a heroic effort and opened up on locally-generated power, two days after Ike. The sheriff’s department was there to “maintain order”. (Let’s just say that they actually wear brown shirts here.). This event was a lifetime opportunity to study the varied behaviors of people under stress.

There were plenty of canned goods and auto supplies. But fresh fruits and veggies were a little thin, no meat due to lack of refrigeration for a few days, batteries, Coleman fuel, trash bags, paper plates, disposable diapers, formula, and nails evaporated. The pharmacy was closed.

Even with the numerous mistakes we made, we were able to stay safe, secure and comfortable and help others while "victims" were standing or idling their car engines in lines. It was an opportunity to try things out under more or less controlled conditions. WTSHTF there will not be controlled conditions!

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Wednesday October 21 2009

Three Letters Re: Storing Food in Commercial Storage Spaces?

Mr. Rawles,
I have a small follow up question/suggestion to your response regarding commercial storage spaces. In my area, I have a solid 4-to-6 hour drive in good conditions to get to my safety location from my greater metropolitan area home. After having to do this drive last year with the chaos of an incoming Hurricane, I decided to take advantage of your "Doug Carlton" suggestion from your novel "Patriots". I decided to rent a small storage unit (5'x5') at what I considered the half way point between my city and my objective location. I pay $20 per month to store a small cache which consists of 20 gallons of stabilized gasoline (ventilated), 7 days of freeze dried food, and bottled drinking water. All in all, it consists of about $100 in supplies.

I do not consider this a long term solution, but at $20 a month it is an insurance policy that almost guarantees I will not have to be walking to my retreat. I'm sure you can find many testimonials online from people who had to evacuate Houston and Brownsville last year due to increased Hurricane activity in the Gulf. Many places were completely sold out of gasoline, food and water with in the first six hours of evacuation activities.

Do you consider this a good stop gap solution when it comes to utilizing self-store units? I understand that this is no excuse for procrastination or apathy. I am not diluting myself into thinking it has long term security for more than 24-to-48 hours of storage pending a catastrophic event or break down of civil service. Thank you for your time and advice. - Matt in Texas


Mr. Rawles,
I am the resident manager of a small self storage facility, and have been for over seven years. And yes I am a prepper and a woman.

Among my tenants I can count about a dozen or so who are also preppers. They consider this a safe place to store their preps while they are finding land to move to. I am always happy when one comes in to give notice that they are moving to the country (as they say).

We (my staff of two, and I) have a written plan in case of a situation and after practicing it and working out the bugs; we can lock this place down in less than five minutes. If I am here by myself it takes about 7 minutes to secure the premises and have my weapon and clipboard in hand. I realize that my tenants will want to come get their possessions as quickly as possible and that is part of our security set up, thus the clipboard with tenant info.

If any of your readers are thinking about storing their goods at a self storage facility here are some suggestions to make sure their items are secure.

1. Check out the location: in person and check with the local police force to see if the facility has had break-ins.
2. Is the property well lit and well fenced? (first step in security)
3. Only rent where there is a resident manager (a layer of security)
4. Gated with an electronic gate and limited hours. 24 hour facilities have more break-ins than those with limited hours. Electronic gates usually record the gate activity. (more security)
5. Is there video cameras recording the activity on the property? (security again)
6. Talk to the manager and staff – get to know them – you can do this without telling them what you are storing. You would be surprised how many people will tell you exactly what they are storing.
7. Does the staff make themselves present on the property?
8. Is the facility clean and well-maintained?
9. What types of locks are on the doors? Round locks for which only you hold the keys to are the best. Are the empty units locked also? (this is a sign that manage takes security seriously) Is there an extra lock on the door? Ask the management why. Most facility requires only one lock so they can lock out a tenant that doesn’t pay their rent.
10. Speaking of rent: Do you pay with credit card or can you set up a continuous pay with your bank or can you pay in advance with the Self Storage sending you an invoice the month you prepaid is up?
11. Read the rental agreement and understand it.
12. Check on your goods frequently.
13. Remember most self storage facilities do not allow food stored in any type of container that a four-legged critter could chew through. Canned goods, and round plastic food grade buckets are good. Make sure when storing food or clothing that you have clean hands. Residue of that hamburger you ate on the way will leave traces that will attract that four-legged critter.
14. Store in Rubbermaid plastic totes, well labeled on all sides including the top and bottom.
15. As far as extreme temperatures; yes it can happen, but if the units are well insulated you should not have any more of a problem than storing at home. You can do the insulation yourself by choosing the containers you store in.
16. Pallets are a great idea and I whole heartily recommend them for everyone.
17. If you don’t want people to know that you are storing your preps, choose totes and containers that will not give you away.

Mr. Rawles, thank you for being a guiding light for so many of us. You and your family are in my prayers. Blessing to you and yours. - N.J.


JWR,
You have a great site, I watch it carefully.

In the recent article on storage spaces you answered a question about storage units being used to keep your food for a time. I run over 3,000 units of storage in a climate that has burning heat and freezing cold, and the answer to this problem is: climate controlled units. For only a few dollars more per month you might be able to find a unit in a climate controlled space. There temperatures will usually be held somewhere between 60 and 80 degrees. Perfect for storing food. These units are less likely to be broken into as they are interior and usually have higher levels of security covering them.

The drawback is that still just an emerging market, and hence climate-controlled units are not available in may rural areas. However, they are much more common the past few years. I just added climate control to a facility right here and though the facility in an area that is mostly farmer’s fields. I also know that the little town of Haley, Idaho has a storage company with climate controlled space. I also know of climate controlled storage scattered [in small numbers] across across Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Readers might not be able to find one right where they are going, but for the general public’s knowledge – climate control is out there and becoming more available all the time

As for losing your stuff for non-payment, yes it happens – all the time. I am constantly amazed at the valuables that people lose just because they didn’t pay their bill. But any reputable storage site is going to offer automatic payment options, either by credit card or checking withdrawals. That can make life much easier.

Yes, plan for possible water damage, and a possible rodent visit. Both are easy to handle. And lastly have some spare keys made for your lock. That one issue has tripped up too many people too many times. Thanks, - Luke H.

JWR Replies: I wholeheartedly agree about spare keys! In addition to the key that you keep on your daily-carry key ring, put one in each of your main bug-out bags, and one in the glove box of each of your vehicles! Someday, you might have to hurriedly depart for your retreat in unusual circumstances.

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Monday October 19 2009

Twenty-Two Reasons Why this Recession is Different and Why it Will Endure

I find it surprising that I'm now getting inquiries from readers, asking if "we've reached bottom" in the current economic recession, and asking if the time has come to start buying stocks or residential real estate. It seems that the talking heads of mainstream media are using some sort of voodoo. How can anyone think that we've hit bottom, and an economic recovery is in progress? To dispel the myths from the CNBC Cheering Section, please consider the following. (And note that I've provided references for each assertion, just so you know that I'm not talking out of my camouflage hat.):

  1. A broken global credit market that has not fully recovered. See: After Lehman, U.S. firms adjust to new face of credit
  2. Lack of transparency in Mortgage-Backed Securities and other re-packaged debt instruments. See: Geithner Blames Lack of Transparency for OTC Derivatives Hit on Market.
  3. The increasing Federal debt, which is growing at an unprecedented rate. See: The National Debt Clock.
  4. Mountains of consumer and corporate debt. See: Observations on the US Debt.
  5. The Federal budget deficit. See: Federal Deficit Hits All-Time High of $1.42 Trillion.
  6. Ever-expanding bailouts. (I call this The MOAB.) See: As More Companies Seek Aid, 'Where Do You Stop?'
  7. Monetization of the National Debt. See: Fed Could Expand MBS Purchases. (Can you spell Oroborus?):
  8. The destruction of the American consumer economy. (It had been artificially credit-driven). See: A Year After The Crisis, The Consumer Economy Is Dead.
  9. Chronic unemployment, possibly much higher than officially reported. See: Alternate Data at ShadowStats.
  10. More than $500 Billion USD in hedge funds that have borrowed short and lent long. See: Assets invested in hedge funds increase by $100bn
  11. A double wave of residential mortgage rate resets. See: this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets.
  12. Continued down-ratcheting of house prices. See: Housing Prices Will Continue to Fall, Especially in California
  13. The under-reported "shadow inventory" of foreclosed houses. See: The "Shadow" Foreclosure Inventory
  14. The very likely collapse of commercial real estate ("the other shoe to drop".) See: Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
  15. A huge crisis lurking in over-the-counter derivatives. See my analysis published in 2006 and the dozens of articles on the Derivative Dribble Blog.
  16. Under-funded pensions. See: Almost half of top unions have under funded pension plans.
  17. A coming wave of municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures. See: The Failure of Leveraged Municipal Bond Hedge Funds.
  18. Increasing numbers of bank failures. See: FDIC: Bank Failures to Cost Around $100 Billion.
  19. Insurance company collapses--some, like AIG, were foolish enough to insure more than a trillion dollars in derivative contracts. See: AIG: Is the Risk Systemic?
  20. Worsening state, county, and city budget crises. See: State prepares for shutdown as budget deadline looms, and this article from a liberal site: Predicting Worse Ahead from America's Economic Crisis.
  21. Loss of faith in the US Dollar, on the FOREX. See: Dollar's reserve currency status in focus as G-7 finance ministers meet.
  22. The coming mass currency inflation, following some asset deflation. See: Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?

Back in the Fall of 2008, I started hearing from consulting clients with notes of fear in their voices. They realized that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they could not properly isolate and articulate the problem. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that they sensed is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate.

America will continue in recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But the recession that began in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone.

The Federal governments's debt, just by itself is cause for concern. As an old gunsmithing friend mine, the late Chuck Brumley, was fond of saying: “If your outgo exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall." Several decades of profligate spending by the US Congress are finally starting to take their toll. Just because their friend Helicopter Ben has a high-speed printing press does mean that they can continue to spend money like drunken sailors in definitely. (On second thought, I should apologize for impugning the reputation of drunken sailors. They are actually much more conservative with their funds than congressmen.)

Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures.

Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.)

The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse.

"Big Picture" Implications

As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend long, and effectively use debt compounded upon debt.

Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDSes). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so most derivatives contract holders are only just now experiencing their first major recession. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not yet experienced a full scale "blow up" of derivatives, but I predict that if and when it happens, it will be spectacular. The pinch in CDSes (a form of derivative contract) in 2008 was just a faint foreshadowing of what we'd experience in a a full-blown derivatives collapse.

The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on the street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse in the summer of 2008, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama.

The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even governments will go under as this tumult plays out. (Take note of the recent vote of no confidence in Latvia.) The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late 1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will inevitably result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.)

Mitigating the Risks

Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends and /or relatives that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.)

Since additional large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business.

In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life.

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Sunday October 18 2009

Prepping for the Worst Case: Becoming a Refugee, by Dr. L.D.

I am unable to make my home self-sustaining.  So, unfortunately, my family will probably become refugees in a true SHTF scenario.  My focus presently is in becoming desirable refugees rather than shunned refugees.  The key is minimizing any negative impact (extra logistics of all sorts) and maximizing any positive impact (filling in weak spots) to someone that is geographically fortuitous.  I was challenged to figure out how a small family could best become a wanted commodity when food is tight and security isn’t. I determined the key for us was that everything carried needed to be dense in value. Density equals mass divided by volume. In our case, mass would be the battered value of the item; volume was limited by the size of our packs. We can’t carry enough bulk food, but we can carry items that will have an excellent post-SHTF (bartered) value, an example would be trading  batteries for an illuminated-reticle or starlight scope in exchange for food.  Keeping our packs small (but danged heavy) will give us an additional advantage if we need to make a small camp.

Skill sets are valuable.  I am fortunate to have become a physician.  Talk about (trading) food for thought! I am trained in Internal Medicine, so much of my skill set depends on a working infrastructure, that is, availability of medications, imaging (X-rays, CT, MRIs and the like) which will be useless once the grid goes down.  To make up for that, I have been certified in ATLS (Advanced Trauma Life Support) and ACLS (Advanced Cardiac Life Support), the former being far more useful in extended emergencies.  Further, I have also trained in mass casualty scenarios.  I have been stashing typically needed and well tolerated medications in a FIFO set-up in my home, from antibiotics to blood pressure pills.  In a legally gray area, I have some potent narcotics (barter/ransom/medical use). I also have a good stock of scalpels, retractors, Celox and the like to maximize my worth. The first lives my first aid kit may save might be my family’s. My skill set will be in demand, and I hope with the other positives below, worth enough to take in extra mouths to feed. But I recognize, perhaps better than non-medical people, that the quality of medical care will quickly revert to the level practiced before the advent of antibiotics and other modern pharmaceuticals. Think Civil War or WWI where a gut-shot was a death-sentence.  Garlic may have some ant- microbial properties, but it pales compared to a few doses of modern antibiotics.  Being a doctor in a SHTF scenario may be like being a sailor in the middle of a desert: lots of knowledge but only able to apply a small fraction of it.

My wife is an educator and now teaches special needs kids.  If the Collapse is a bad one, kids will still need to learn, and there is more to teaching than just putting material in front of kids, as anyone that homeschools will agree.

Those are our special skill sets. You can never have enough skill sets, and we plan to further develop our skills.

Our two children are too young to be useful for anything except giving us joy, . And dirty laundry.

We have been buying weapons in standard calibers – 45 ACP, 5.56, and 22LR.  I have given myself the luxury of owning a PS90. I rationalized the purchase by the fact that it supports a 50 round magazine of 5.7 rounds and bridges the gap between a pistol and a longer rifle. In reality, it looks really cool. Four mags on my hip (and one in the rifle) gives me 250 rounds. In an urban/suburban location, which will be the most difficult part of our journey, I do not see a need to shoot over 100 m. Most action will likely be under that, and that is the niche for the PS90. Additionally, it’s bullpup design keeps it short and maneuverable in a vehicle without sacrificing accuracy (it has a 16 inch barrel).  More importantly, we have packed way about 150 pounds worth of ammo in our G.O.O.D .bags and another 70 lbs in our BOB’s. We have so far two extra ARs and three Glocks for barter/trade. We don’t have a weapon for the 22LR, but either we will (Ruger’s 10/22) or it’s for barter. Our bags are meant to carry the lead at the sacrifice of food. It may be easier to barter rounds (heavy but small) for food (light but large).  If we do make to the hinterlands, having our ammo added to the favorably situated ‘castle’ will be a bonus.  My wife and I both shoot accurately to 200 m, and well enough at 300 - 400 m to keep the philistines away. We continue to practice our shooting skills by range time and class time. We will get far.

I’ve begun a ‘collection’ of survival knives and high quality folders by buying two at a time (again, two is one, and one is none).  They will be needed en route and, like ammo, possess an excellent weight to bartered value.  My guess is that knives will lost or broken and there will be a demand for them.  In the same category, are redundant Katadyn water filters kits.  Extras were purchased because they are small and will barter well. Bolt cutters were bought because they will be useful traveling and also in barter. Bic lighters, assorted tiny screws for spectacles with jeweler screwdrivers , rechargeable CR123 and AA batteries, extra Gerber multitools, quality compasses, 550 cord, several small but bright flashlights (Fenix brand – 1 or 2 CR123 batteries and they pump out over 180 lumen and fit on a keychain or a rifle), two Old Testaments, and 2 American flags fill the small spaces in the gear.  We keep thinking on how to improve our “stock” and get more bang for the buck with ‘value dense ‘ items. I thought of the extra eye-glass screws after having my own come apart just as I got to work and spent a miserable day squinting.  Someone missing their glasses won’t function at near capacity and the eye glass screw may be the equivalent of the nail that caused a horse to be lost, then a rider to be lost etc.

We also have our own gear and clothing, using the layer approach with an outer hardshell in camouflage.  We both have packed two pair of extra boots, either for the long haul or barter.

These items get thrown into the trunk along with our Camelbaks, and our mountain bikes (with extra tubes and tires) go on top supporting a few jerry cans of gasoline lashed between them.  If we can’t get to a refuge with available gas or the roads become impassable, then we load the bikes up and ride/walk until we are welcomed.

If we’re lucky, the Collapse will wait until we can move to a more geographically desirable location and all these purchases will remain useful while we focus on new needs (stored food, long term water and power and etc). If not,  I have improvised a plan that adapts to our situation and hopefully will change our refugee status to a valued team-member.

This is written in part because there has been no view from the prepared refugees.  There may be more preppers without a safe haven than those able to develop a safe haven, not because of any deficit or laziness on their part, but because of reality.  In addition, all preppers cannot move to a sparsely populated area in the US for if they did (imagine merely 10% of NYC, LA, and DC doing so during by the end Obama’s administration), those areas would no longer be sparsely populated! So think of what you can carry that can be bartered for things you can’t carry and that will make you into a valuable  team member.

I have worked hard to become a doctor (and perhaps even harder to remain a doctor is this crazed system) and to be able to give charity rather than receive it.  If I am to receive the charity of shelter from someone who is able to do so, I will be sure that we do more than just pull on own weight.  We will add security, in the short and long haul.

So if TEOTWAWKI happens, keep a lookout for strangers who may have much to offer. But for the grace of God, it might have been you unable to live in a geographically desirable area and looking to add to an established sanctuary.

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Letter Re: Preparations for Eyesight and Hearing

Mr. Editor:
Just a quick note to follow-up regarding preparations for Eyesight and Hearing. I checked into lasik and contacts long ago (I am slightly near-sighted – too many hours staring into cameras and computers I guess). Although Lasik advances have come a long way, please be sure you talk to your eye surgeon at length before you commit to this serious expense. If you are near-sighted, a successful lasik procedure will improve your long-distance vision, but may impede your “up close” vision. I talked with my eye doctor at length about this, and after many questions he acknowledged that in many cases, near-sighted people would require reading glasses in as little as 3-5 years.

Also, remember that as a person gets older, the eye muscles simply weaken, which is why many people need reading glasses by their mid-40s. For those of you who were genetically lucky enough to not need glasses, oh how I envy you! (Forgive me Lord!) For those of us who do need glasses, contacts are a nice thing. Remember that eye solutions do have expiration dates and never sleep with your contacts in because it can lead to eye infections. Make sure your hands are “hospital surgery clean” (HSC) when you place the contacts in your eyes. A post-TEOTWAWKI eye infection is not something you want to deal with.

If there are any ophthalmologists reading, I’d be interested in hearing from you about eye-related injuries and treatments, etc. For example, I imagine there will be a lot of people chopping wood without wearing safety glasses who end up with one of nature’s toothpicks embedded in their eye.

As a side note, I recommend going to Costco and picking up extra pairs of reading glasses. Buy several different strengths, including some that “stronger” than what you currently need. They are cheap, but somewhat durable. Even if you don’t need them now, someone else may. - Jake G.

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Tuesday October 6 2009

Is Prepping an Insurmountable Task?--The Beginner's Primer, by Gary T.

Once you realize the importance of being prepared for coming hard times, you may ask yourself, “How can I possibly prepare for any scenario?  This is an insurmountable undertaking.”  The more you ponder this, the more the reality of this seems to be confirmed.  Let not your heart be troubled.  As with almost any endeavor, the road to success begins with the first step and continues one step at a time.  Consistent, prioritized, careful preparation over a period of time, preparation built around what your personal situation (budget, job, family, medical needs, etc.) will allow, can get you in a position in relatively short order to weather the scenarios that are most likely to occur.  The mere fact that you have considered the possibilities of what may lay ahead can very quickly put you ahead of the vast majority of the population.

Consider the possible scenarios whereby preparedness would prove to be literally a lifesaver.  These scenarios range from very geographically localized events, either natural or man-made, to the proverbial TEOTWAWKI.  The likelihood any of these events occurring generally becomes decreasing likely in a given time frame as the geographical scope and severity of the event increases.  Therefore the occurrence of a total multi-generational societal collapse, requiring the maximum amount of preparation is far less likely to occur over the next year or two or five than relatively local, relatively short term events such as tornados, hurricanes or floods, or even some major terrorist events, all requiring far less preparation than TEOTWAWKI situation previously mentioned.  This should be considered in the early stages of preparation as priorities for investment are made.

Therefore, your preparation should follow a well planned, measured, prioritized process that enables you to be positioned to go through the most likely scenarios first followed by progressively increasing severe scenarios.  Ongoing preparation will build on the past.  No effort goes wasted.  This should be encouraging to the beginning prepper.

How should you start?  Start with a careful analysis of the most likely localized events that may occur in your area or region, or events from another region that may impact your local area (remember passenger air service after 9/11).  Shutdown of transportation systems, especially trucking and rail should be of paramount concern.  What is the probable time frame that these events may cause you to rely on your own resources?  Make a list of all the items and quantities you will need to get through that period of time.  This constitutes the Phase I physical resources preparation plan.

Prioritize the list and within the constraints of your budget begin to acquire the items you have listed.  Keeping an Excel spreadsheet makes this task much easier and allows you to see at a glance exactly how much physical resource preparation you have achieved, how much you still need, the value of those resources, the cost to complete your initial Phase I purchases, etc.  Your spreadsheet should include rows listing each item with columns for:

  • Priority
  • Category or subcategory
  • Quantity Needed (for the given preparation Phase)
  • Quantity on Hand
  • Difference Needed vs. On-Hand (Calculated Value)
  • Cost Each
  • Acquisition Cost (Calculated Value)
  • On Hand Value (Calculated Value)
  • Total Value (Calculated Value)
  • Percent Complete for the Item (Calculated Value) – you can color code this Red/Yellow/Green for and at a glance dashboard view
  • Subtotals as you feel appropriate for each Category or Sub-Category

In the same way you used Excel to track your Phase I resources preparation status, use your spreadsheet to list categories, sub-categories, items and quantities that you wish to acquire for future Phases, up to and including a Phase for TEOTWAWKI.  This allows you to systematically build your level of preparedness a Phase at a time.  As you start with Phase I, you can also see how well you are gearing up for future Phases as well.  Remember, on-hand quantities, pricing, etc, can carry from the Phase I sheet to the Phase II through Phase “n” sheets so redundant data entry isn’t required!  Don’t forget to make hard copies of your files and save them in a three ring binder.

Additional Tips for getting started.

So you have determined what you need to acquire and have begun to do so.  But prepping isn’t just about acquiring tangible goods. 

It is also about skills.  It is especially about skills.  Even what I have called “Phase I” preparation should include training in the plan.  A diversity of skills within your group (which may start out as just your family) is important.  Take advantage of any relevant training available to you at low or no cost.  Programs available in many communities include CERT, First Aid, CPR and similar.  Use these opportunities to increase your skill base.  These are great skills to have in normal times and are great skills to build upon.  Even these basic courses could prove to literally be lifesavers in “normal” as well as tougher times.

Learn to garden.  Even if you don’t have a retreat with the space, perfect soil, and water supply, you should garden on a smaller scale in your city or suburban back yard.  This will give you a head start in knowledge and experience (i.e., harvesting and saving seeds for future years) when you are able to move to that retreat location.  Plus, fresh garden vegetables are healthier and taste so much better than what you purchase from the store, especially if the store bought vegetables are poured from a can!  Nothing beats enjoying a hand picked, vine ripe tomato fresh from the garden (and I confess, I take the salt shaker out back with me!).

Put away the foods you eat today.  Nitrogen packed survival foods are expensive and likely should and may be a part of your plan.  However, many foods that you eat today can be more immediately utilized to kick start your storage pantry at moderate cost while you save for other more expensive longer term options.  You can buy or easily build out of plywood a FIFO rotation canned goods rack, set it in a pantry or closet and start loading it up today with the foods you already eat.  This accumulation can be done for little perceived cost if done over time.  Simply buy a little extra of what you already purchase each time you are at the store.  You will be amazed at how quickly you can build up a 30, 60, 90 day supply of canned goods that will never go bad because they are what you currently eat so you rotate them via the FIFO system into your daily meals.  Canned vegetables, meats, soups, fruits and sauces can all be stored in this simple way.  All at very moderate expense.

Learn about your firearms.  Practice with them as much as you can afford to.  Get professional instruction.  Basic courses for novices are available at moderate expense.  There are NRA sanctioned courses for basic safety, handling and shooting skills.  Work toward completion of an NRA course or equivalent in self defense in the home and self defense outside the home.   If you are or once you get to be more advanced, get even more advanced training.  If your budget doesn’t initially allow this, do the best you can but plan for more advanced tactical training in a future Phase.  The key now is to get what you can afford and build on that.  Practice, practice, practice.

Don’t think you must necessarily purchase a complete set of new firearms right out of the gate for your survival armory.  Conventional wisdom suggests .45 ACP pistols for carry, .308/7.62 NATO semi-autos for your MBR (with expensive red-dot optics), a good .308 bolt action for long range and / or large game hunting, and perhaps a more expensive shotgun than you have budget for.  If you already have 9mm pistols, that AR-15 you bought a few years ago “because you wanted one”, the scoped .303 you inherited from Dad and an old but functional Remington 870 Express in 12 gauge, you are good to go for now, as a beginner prepper.  Make sure that adequate ammunition is part of your plan, but with this or a similar adequate set of calibers and shotgun you are set for your initial Phases of preparation.  Early on, food, water, medical supplies and the like are likely a higher priority than new firearms.  You can upgrade in a future Phase.  Focus on firearms training at this stage.  It’s about prioritization.  Besides, later phases prepare for scenarios that will be more likely to require the capabilities of upgraded firearms.

A basic principle.  Standardize.  If you pick .45ACP for your personal carry weapon, it is advantages for all members of your group to do the same.  The same principle applies for your MBR, self defense and hunting shotguns, etc.  Ammunition and magazine plans will appreciate this.  Try to standardize on 1 or 2 battery types for your battery operated devices.  Or more correctly standardize by using devices requiring only 1 or 2 battery types.  You don’t want to have to store and/or maintain charges on AA, AAA, CR123, C, D, N and CR2032 batteries, when you could be more efficient and effective with perhaps using only AA batteries.  This principle applies to anything that you have more than one of.  Radios, flashlights, etc.  Remember the axiom, two is one and one is none.  Standardization means simplicity, efficiency, spares.  There may be exceptions, but take standardization into consideration when you develop or modify your plan.  Initially, you may have to have a wider assortment of devices depending on the devices you currently have, but have a strategy to standardize.

Plan to read or more correctly, to learn by reading.  Whenever you come across a useful article, print it out and save it in a three ring binder with other useful articles you have saved.  Even if it is something you can’t purchase or do or use until a future Phase, save it now and add it to the plan now.  There is an incredible amount of useful information in SurvivalBlog.com.  Read and save (and purchase through Jim’s site when you decide to purchase goods from one of his advertisers).  Jim helps us so we should help him where we can.

If you have relatives or friends in a rural location that you can get too and who are willing to take you in during appropriate events, have a G.O.O.D. plan.  This includes hard copy maps with routes and alternate routes.  Practice all routes before the big day.  Practice your load out plan, again, prior to the big day.  Search SurvivalBlog.com for loads of information on G.O.O.D.  There are many concerns related to evacuation in certain scenarios.  Educate yourself and make educated decisions.

This article is the tip of the iceberg with regards to beginning prepping, but hopefully it has a few pointers to get you thinking and to get you started and is an encouragement that this can be done, that you can successfully prepare for the future.  You don’t have to purchase all nitrogen packed long shelf life survival foods or the perfect arsenal with one of every conceivable firearm type for every circumstance (in fact limiting (standardizing) models and calibers has some clear advantages) in order to successfully prepare for the likeliest of scenarios.  Remember, methodical, prioritized preparing is the way to go for those of us on a budget.  Start small, build your knowledge base, supplies and skills, and very soon you will be in the enviable position of weathering the most likely calamities to occur in the next few years.   If you continue this methodical, ongoing process, you will continue to improve your situation and continue to put your self in a position to weather increasingly more severe and longer lasting scenarios.  The important thing for those on a budget is not to wish you could do it all now by immediately trading cash for all the tangibles and training you need, but to start and to start now and to consistently build to our plan as we can afford to do so.

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Letter Re: Firearms Spare Parts Recommendations

Jim,
First of all I am glad your newest book "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It" is selling very well. It is a great book and I think just about everyone could benefit from reading it and having a copy on the shelf to reference. Anyway my question is about firearms spare parts. I have stashed a good amount of cash to purchase spare parts for my essential firearms and am not sure what to get. Thanks to a previous post here I have a a list for the AR platform. I am however just about clueless for the Remington 870, the Glock 9mm and the M1911. I have done some looking online and have seen lists here or there which are completely different from each other. I know you use the Remington 870 and the 1911 at the Rawles Ranch so I imagine you have thought those over a little bit. Also any thoughts you or your readers have about spare parts for the Glock platform would be highly appreciated.

Thank you very much for your time and effort. - TheOtherRyan (Co-editor of Total Survivalist Libertarian Rantfest)

JWR Replies: For some suggested spare parts to keep on hand, see these articles in the SurvivalBlog archives and at my static pages:

Beyond those references, you should talk with specialist gunsmiths that are well-experienced with your particular models. Be sure to ask them not only about high breakage parts, but also high loss parts. Some parts under spring pressure tend to go flying across the room, during disassembly. Have you ever spent a half hour with a magnet, trolling through shag carpet in the search for a tiny, errant spring detent? I have!

In closing, I should remind readers to take full advantage of the SurvivalBlog archives, via the "Search Posts on SurvivalBlog:" box at the top of the right hand bar. If your question is technical, then odds are you can quickly find the answer in the more than 7,600 archived posts. They are all available free of charge.

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Monday October 5 2009

Letter Re: Where to Start in Survival Preparedness?

Mr. Rawles,
My family and I are facing some challenges in our pursuit to become prepared. First off, a little background on our situation. I'm a 12-year Air Force veteran currently stationed in Montana. My wife also works full-time. We have about $60,000 in debt between credit cards and two auto loans. We have no problems paying our bills and our credit is excellent. It's just that we don't have a ton of extra money to begin our grand survival scheme. We've talked about all the different routes about living debt free and also purchasing the right vehicles, retreat and equipment that we feel we would need.

Option #1 - The Air Force pays large bonuses for certain career fields if you reenlist into that career field. I'm interested in one that will pay me a minimum $50,000 ($25.000 on signing, the rest spread out over the length of my reenlistment.) We talked about paying off one auto loan and our credit cards with the up-front $25,000. This would free up about $500/month which we would probably put towards our bigger auto loan. Since the first auto loan would be paid off, we can then sell that car and buy a less expensive '73-'86 Chevy/GMC Blazer or Suburban (gas). That would take care of survival vehicle #1. The other $25,000 over the following years would be used to pay down our other vehicle to where we can pay off or even break even so we can purchase survival vehicle #2---1994-1997 Dodge Ram 2500 4x4 5.9L Cummins diesel. If we go for this option, most if not all of our debt will be gone and we'll have about $1,000/month to spend on fortifying our equipment, supplies et cetera. The problem with this option is we won't be too prepared if something were to happen in the next 4-to-5 years or so.

Option #2 - Let's assume that I still have the same bonus as listed above. I retire in eight years and would like to have a little piece of land to go to--TEOTWAWKI or not. We plan on 10+ acres somewhere in north central Idaho (Orofino/Pierce/Deary--that area). Well, I could take the $25,000 up front bonus and put it down on a piece of land. We don't plan on spending over $80,000, so we can figure on a payment of around $300-$600/month. Then, when I retire, I'll move the family up there and build a house with a mini-farm. Of course, if I went this route I would still have a lot of debt.

Option #3 - Perhaps I should plan for more immediate needs. My family has little of the proper equipment/supplies that we would need. Shoot, we don't even have a Bug-Out Bag.. I've considered using that bonus money (or a portion) to build up in the equipment area and forego paying any additional to debt (after all, if TEOTWAWKI happens in the near future, debt will be the least of our problems).

So, this is the dilemma that I am faced with. I know my end goal a (self sustaining mini-farm in Idaho, while still receiving a pension and being debt free). Getting there is the hard part. The costs of my current debt, state of provisions, buying land, building on the land, vehicles, alternative power for the retreat will probably cost anywhere from $200,000-$500,000 when it's all said and done. I think the smart choice is putting as much money as possible towards debt and getting that out of the way, but at the same time making small provisions for WTSHTF. Perhaps I've missed something? - Dan W.

JWR Replies: For anyone that might be laid off, debt can be a real killer in the next few years. I still predict a at least another 18 months of deflation to be followed by sharp inflation. In deflationary times, having any debt load would be disastrous if income were interrupted due to a layoff. Granted, military service is a unique situation, but my general advice is to pay down debts, and avoid taking on any new debt. The situation in the immediate future will resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s, where cash was king, and the few people that had jobs fared well, but those that were unemployed suffered badly. So my advice is to take Option #1: Pay off one auto loan and your credit cards with the $25,000 re-up bonus. Not only will it remove the stress of potential loss of income, but it will eliminate interest payments, which are a non-productive drain on your resources. Then make your preparations gradually, using your expendable income, without incurring any new debt. If need be, downgrade one of your vehicles to an older model that won't require a car loan. That will free up even more cash each month.

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Monday September 28 2009

Two Letters Re: Preparedness Information for Diabetics

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I have a few suggestions to add to the recent article about survival and preparedness for diabetics, particularly type 1 diabetics. I've had type 1 diabetes for 13 years and one of the few things I learned pretty quickly is that the power will go out and even if the bottle of insulin is unopened, temperatures higher than 40 degrees Fahrenheit for a long period of time will degrade the activity of the insulin. This will require a much higher dose than what would otherwise be necessary if the insulin is stored properly, if the insulin works at all. Some of the newer insulins will not survive more than a month at room temperature, and less if they're opened.

A few other suggestions on diabetes survival:
1. Be familiar with how to use all types of insulin, because there would not be any guarantee of a specific insulin type being available for use in an emergency situation. Nor would there likely be doctors and nurses familiar with anything other than humulin Regular and NPH (which are considered to be "old" insulins and are more familiar to those who went to medical school twenty years ago.) Be prepared to revert back to "feeding the insulin", meaning taking a rigid schedule of two or three injections daily and eating evenly spaced meals of specific amounts of carbohydrate, instead of eating various amounts at different times of day and using several injections of the newer, fast insulins to cover. Those insulins may not be available, and so a "normal" diet would be out of the question.
2. Know how much insulin you need, and how to measure this amount in any type of syringe. Like before, insulin syringes with .5 unit/1unit/2 unit measure may not be widely available.
3. If you do not immediately have insulin available, try to keep in mind what was done prior to its invention in the 1920s, starvation. They knew that carbohydrate seemed to make diabetes worse, and eating large amounts of carbohydrate increased the amount of sugar in the urine. So to prevent this, carbohydrates were restricted. It's much like a very strict form of the Atkins diet, but even protein is reduced to small amounts, because protein is eventually converted to glucose. There are books from the 1900s on recipes and menus to use to starve diabetic patients, as well as some of the "old-fashioned" methods of screening for glucose in the urine and blood, one good book is freely available on the gutenberg online library web site called The Starvation Treatment of Diabetes. Starvation would not be a viable long-term option because of the obvious end result, but would serve some for a short period of time until insulin becomes available to them. It would kill a diabetic faster, however, to continue to eat normally without insulin.

I have a 6 month stockpile of diabetes supplies, as well as translations of my current insulin regimen using different types of insulins and a plan on how to follow a starvation diet. For 1 month on a standard two injections per day of Regular and NPH insulin, testing urine glucose twice or three times per day and assuming blood glucose meters are unavailable, one would need:
2 bottles of Keto-Diastix strips (measures glucose and ketones in the urine; once opened, a bottle will last 3 months)
1 box of U100 insulin syringes (100 syringes - 60 syringes used in one month = 40 syringe surplus)
1 box of 100 alcohol swabs
1 or 2 bottles of Regular insulin
1 or 2 bottles of NPH insulin
4 bottles of 50ct glucose tablets (which would likely not be completely used)
2 16 oz bottles of light corn syrup (a very efficient method for reversing hypoglycemia/low blood sugar)

Diabetes has really only become complicated to manage in the years since the invention of blood glucose meters and excess information. Those of us with type 1 diabetes have been convinced that in order to "survive" we need so many little pieces of expensive technology, super fast "boutique" insulins and constant monitoring of our glucose levels, so that we are utterly lost if these things aren't available to us. There are type 1 diabetics alive today who "survived" very well on one or two injections of beef or pork insulin a day, testing their urine for glucose using Benedict's solution, and avoiding "sugary" foods. If they can do it and live to be 60, we all can. Thank you, -- Amber C.

James,
That was good info from Mr Fenwick. A great attitude for everyone to emulate.

As a type 2 diabetic I wonder if part of the Diabetics problem might be solved naturally in the worst case of TEOTWAWKI.

I lost 25 lbs and lowered my blood sugar by 50 to 75 points. The weight came from a period of inactivity after multiple surgeries. I rarely need insulin except when I fall off my diet. Oral meds take care of it normally and I am now able to exercise some. More weight loss is in my near future. My M.D. says Diet & exercise will take care of it when the weight stabilizes at my proper weight.

Considering my experience and from all I read, I'd guess many Diabetics will be helped by lowered food consumption and exercise brought on by TEOTWAWKI. Possibly to the point of needing no meds. I am hoping for that result. - E.H.

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Friday September 25 2009

Preparedness Information for Diabetics, by Chuck Fenwick

I ran across an article on survival and diabetics written by a nurse. It was what we call a basic brush and floss kind of article that quoted from some well-known medical books. I call it a brush and floss article because it contained mostly information which a diabetic already knows, much like the way a dentist tells you what your mom has told you a bazillion times about brushing your teeth.

However at the end of the article the nurse pretty much consigned type 1 diabetics to doom and even referenced Darwin and the "survival of the fittest". I know in the novel One Second After, the diabetic daughter died because of lack of insulin, but the part in the book about it going bad because of temperature variations is not accurate.

Here’s some information which will be of help to those who use insulin, specifically Humulin. We've been helping with diabetic preparedness for several years and there are some important things which are not common knowledge. Humulin--unopened--has a shelf-life of at least one year at room temperature. And Humulin can be frozen without ill effects to the user. Lilly won't tell you this, but I know of a type 1 diabetic who froze a year's supply for Y2K.

Her name is Madeline and in 1999 she called me to ask if I knew if insulin could be safely frozen. I told her that I didn’t know, but I would find out. Several of us in the Medical Corps organization started making calls and found out it could. I relayed the good news to Madeline. I suggested that if she were going to freeze it that she keep a log of her blood sugar test values with un-frozen insulin and then with the frozen insulin. She did and her blood sugar did not vary. In fact, Madeline still practices that type of preparedness with her disease.

As for the Darwin and the natural selection mindset, EMP or not, this country is not the Titanic. There are lifeboats for everyone. As medical people, and for non medical as well, our job is not to pick who gets to live or die simply because we may not know the answer to the problem. Our job is to solve the problem and not bow down to Darwin or "selection" or ignorance. Diabetics, preemies, old people, retarded children and the like are not mass causalities and a matter of triage. They are just a people problem which can be solved. I do not have the moral right to pronounce doom on the sick or injured. I do have a moral obligation to at least try to solve a problem.

To say that a Type 1 diabetic wouldn’t have a tough time of it if the system collapsed would be untrue, but problems can be solved. People who are insulin dependent or dependent on any medications need to put away extra supplies for treatment and support of their condition. I would not solely count on electronic devices either. Telemetry has a bad habit of failing, so old fashioned ways of checking blood sugar might not be that old fashioned if we lose telemetry because of an EMP. Keep in mind that there are several other diabetic problems and that there are medications to treat them. Therefore, it is not just insulin which will be in short supply if the system fails.

These supplies will only be a cushion though if a disaster of the magnitude presented in, One Second After, happens. That cushion will give us some time to work on finding answers for a myriad of problems which would surface.

As for diabetics we will have to find a way to duplicate the work of Banting and Best and other researchers of the early 1920s. This isn’t a survival-of-the-fittest type of thing. It is a problem to be solved. Just recently some Canadian researchers injected capsaicin into the excess pain receptors of the pancreas of diabetic mice. Then a neuropeptide was used to soothe the inflammation. The pancreas immediately started producing insulin and 4 months later the previously diabetic mice were still “cured”.

Is the diabetic survival problem complex? Of course it is. All TEOTWAWKI problems tend to be complex. But they are still just problems to be solved. Keep in mind that if an EMP wiped out all type one diabetics, it would not be an end to type 1 diabetes. If it could be ended by some sort of natural selection then where did it come from in the first place?

Summary:

1) Humulin can be frozen without damaging the contents, bottle or seals and then used without ill effect to the patient.

2) Unopened Humulin has at least a one year shelf-life at room temperature (70 degrees F.)

3) Darwin wasn’t a diabetic or a survivalist so who cares what he said.

- Chuck Fenwick, Medical Corps

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Wednesday September 23 2009

Letter Re: Think of Preparedness as Insurance

Jim,
We preppers get labeled all sorts of things from mildly eccentric to paranoid, and so I ask, is it so imbalanced to want insurance?
Clearly most people have health insurance (if they can afford it) car insurance (mandatory), home insurance and life insurance so why stop there? When friends ask about my lifestyle, this is my argument.

1) Why do you have firearms?

Police insurance. If the police can't come in time, (can they ever?) or are overwhelmed (Los Angeles riots anyone?) or just go home (Hurricane Katrina?) then you may need need firearms.

2) Why do you have stored food?

Eating insurance. Just in time (JIT) delivery systems, monocrop susceptibility to plant diseases, lack of any food stored at the national level.

3) Why do you have stored gasoline/diesel?

Transportation insurance. If you live in the country or suburbs walking everywhere is probably not realistic, or want to bug out of a city.

4) Why do you have a ham radio and portable transceivers?

Communications insurance. Storms, blackouts etc. No monthly charges like cell phones and easier than smoke signals.

5) Why do you have generators and stored fuel for them?

Electrical insurance. This way the frozen food I have stays cool for a few days etc.

6) Why do you have stored water?

Cooking, drinking and washing insurance.

7) Why do you have precious metals?

Fiat Currency insurance. In case some bureaucrat decides to print up so much money that we go into hyperinflation.

Even the adage, "one is none and two are one" is not ignored by the masses. Ask someone who relies on their eyeglasses to see if they only have one pair. How many people have two cars when they could really get by with one.

It is only the wandering barefoot ascetic with a loincloth and begging bowl as his only possessions who makes no preparations. It is human nature to prep, the only question is to what degree. - SF in Hawaii

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Thursday September 10 2009

Letter Re: Living in the Time After TEOTWAWKI

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I think there is a blind spot in a lot of preparedness/survivalist writing that I would like to address. There are a number of sites which do a good to excellent job of getting the word out about the nuts-and-bolts of getting prepared to allow a family to get through a short term emergency, and there are sites which encourages us to get a retreat in farm country.

However, I have not seen anyone talk about how we will boot strap ourselves to back towards some sort of village life and civil society[, in the event of TEOTWAWKI].

In your novel "Patriots" , you touch on this with the Troy Barter Faire, and then fast forward at the end of the book to this being an accomplished fact. In the novel "One Second After", the author makes the point that an EMP event could have pushed people back to a 19th century lifestyle, but things were more medieval because no one had the knowledge of how
to live in the 19th century, or readily had the tools.

In a post-SHTF scenario, there won't be much call for fibre-channel administrators, but there will be a demand for bakers and candle makers. What I suggest is that while people are assembling their preps, they also look at the skills and services that they will need afterwards, and see if they can't learn to do these things themselves. After all, if they need them,
so will other people, and some folks will be willing to trade for them. Free trade will be the boot-strap which brings about village life again.

Here's a quick list of skills/trades that I think would be useful in a post-SHTF world.

Food:
Baker
Brewer
Canning fruits, vegetables and meats
Cheese making
Smoking meats
Sausage making
Truck patch gardening
Vintner
Yogurt making

Dry goods, sundries:
Soap maker
Candle maker
Paper making

Clothing:
Seamstress/tailor
Leather worker (shoes, belts, coats)
Weaver

Materials:
Leather tanning
Wool shearing
Wool carding
Wool spinning
Lumbering (the hard way!)
Foundry for smelting recyclable metals

Manufacturing:
Blacksmith
Tin smith
Wheel wright
Cartwright
Cooper (barrel maker)
Leather worker (tack for animal drawn equipment)
Glass blowing (jars, bottles and apparatus)
Pottery

Many of these skills and trades can be started as a hobby. I suggest that people think about these now, and find what they have a knack for and consider it "job security" for the future. - Bear in California

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Letter Re: Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It, by Prepared in Maine

Mr. Editor,:
If one was truly going to "Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It" I would never rely 100% on organic farming unless it was as a last resort Personally I wouldn't rely on it anymore then compost and manure, if it was free and available (Do you deliver?)

I work in agriculture and during growing season, I see organic crop failures, and these are professional farmers. Could you afford to loose 25-80% of your crop, or how about 100 percent?
Organic growers are operating at a huge disadvantage using "organic pesticides" with many that just don't work. Sure, some will knock the problem down for a short while, then you will be back where you started, as all the eggs hatch out again.

If you have ever had problems with: Whitefly, Thrips, or Spidermites just too name a few, then you will know exactly what I mean. Commercial growers feed the world, and turn out crop after crop with reliable results using the correct amounts of pesticides and fertilizers, shouldn't you be doing the same? After all, your life might depend on it right?

Ok back to work, Now lets see... Who was it that had fertilizer and Malathion on sale? And I need... - Barry

JWR Replies: In my estimation, the best course is lies in the middle ground: Get experience with both gardening techniques. If we ever have a dreaded multi-generational TEOTWAWKI, then experience with organic gardening will be invaluable. In the short term, it also has some health benefits, and amending the soil naturally is a good thing, even if you decide to use pesticides. I agree that after the Schumer hits the fan, crop yield will trump all other considerations, since there will suddenly be a lot of hungry folks to feed, without any conveniently-stocked supermarket shelves. Even devoted organic gardeners should store some pesticides! But don't overlook the possibility of a worst-case situation that could go on, and on, and on, and we find that all available pesticides and chemical fertilizers are expended and irreplaceable. Again: Get experience with both techniques.

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Tuesday September 8 2009

Letter Re: Thoughts on Shedding Bad Habits, and Developing Good Ones

Hello Mr Rawles,
In response to Jane L.'s letter on shedding bad habits posted on September 3rd, it is admirable she has identified things in her life she can move away from for a more sustainable and healthy lifestyle.

I would like to caution her, as well as others, that preparedness and survivalism is not an activity one does for a few weeks, and "is ready". It is a lifestyle changing activity that probably reaches every facet of life, changing many things all at once.

Don't burn out on it.

Things like the glass of wine, some breath mints or chewing gum are all small things that add up. Remember, you should be in this for the long haul, and a perpetual cycle of denial of these little things can add up, building a resentment to the lifestyle you're trying to adjust to. I know when I'm going backpacking for a long time, I miss my bed. If I was suddenly out of the house and this was my only means of warmth at night, I would begin to resent requiring the tent and backpack, and long for the days of my warm house and bed. Finally, when I get my nice warm bed back, I'm likely to never want to camp or backpack again.If you deny yourself a lot of creature comforts all at once, then start "caving" on a few of them, you may find yourself in a backwards slide where you resent the whole preparedness mindset.

Even if that sacrifice of these little treats is acceptable to you, what of those in your family, who may not feel the sense of importance about what you're doing? Suddenly being denied soda pop and television may cause an instant animosity to the lifestyle you're hoping they embrace. Even a gradual denial of these things may cause it, albeit less severely all at once.

If candies or wine are important to you, find ways to store or re-supply what you have. Preparedness should be about sustainability, not denying ones self of what they feel is important.

As for television, it is a tool. You can cut it out altogether, or look at it as another medium of information. Yes, you can turn off Spongebob, but maybe you should be watching shows about deer hunting or food prep? Even the occasional movie is important, as your family all watches it with you. Some households, this is the only "together time" there is, sadly. Look at what that television means to your family. If gathering to watch a movie every other night is some family quality time, then don't deny that. These are the people you care most about in the world, and the ones that will have your back in the situations you're prepping for.Just having that quality time to reinforce family relations is important. - DA in Michigan

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Saturday September 5 2009

You're Not (Yet) Prepared, by Ted B.

You saw the warning signs years ago and decided to be the ant, not the grasshopper. You found and purchased the home on land that is now your residence as well as your retreat.  You’ve gathered the materials to survive, perhaps even thrive, during the coming storms of political upheaval, food shortages, social disorder and economic distress.  You took courses on weapons use and feel confident in your ability to defend home and kin with any of the weapons in your personal armory.  You assembled canning materials and learned how to use them.  You consume, replenish and rotate those foods regularly, not just watch them age on the basement shelves.  You have the house wired for 12 VDC as well as standard 120 VAC.  Your solar panels, batteries and backup generator are all positioned and tested.  The neat stacks of silver rounds lie nestled in protective containers, waiting to be used for purchases when the dollar is finally recognized for the worthless paper it has become.  Medical supplies are all labeled and stored in easy to reach locations in the house, barn and bunker.  Manuals on survival techniques, emergency first aid, growing and preserving your own food, and a host of other critical topics are carefully filed away for future reference in an Internet-limited world.  Stabilized gasoline and treated diesel sit quietly in sturdy underground drums.  Your communications gear includes CB, ham and FRS radios, and you rigged up wired field sets between the main house and outbuildings.

You even took some steps not normally included in the various “Preparation for Apocalypse” articles that flooded the media and which were read by millions.  You measured the firing distance to each property landmark visible from your home and wrote up landmark-specific bullet drop tables for the calibers of rifles you will use in defense.  You got part of a fresh animal carcass from the local country butcher and practiced your wound suturing skills on real flesh.  You picked up and squirreled away various strengths of reading glasses that you don’t need now but may need in years to come.  You gathered moderate quantities of several multi-use chemicals and a book that shows how to make simple mixtures such as match head material, flash powder, and smoke grenade filler.  When buying and storing your paper goods, you didn’t just lay up three years worth of toilet paper, you also remembered that "If The Momma Ain’t Happy, Ain’t Nobody Happy" and, setting aside your embarrassment, you bought and carefully stored away a generous stash of feminine sanitary products.  You knew that having beans and rice for months at a time potentially could be considered a fate worse than starvation, so you added hard candy, plenty of dried fruit and other treats to the pantry.

You feel a sense of accomplishment and confidence as you fine-tune your checklists and provisions.  You can’t plan for absolutely everything, but you feel you’ve done all you can to get ready for the majority of scenarios that might come about. You are prepared.  Or are you?

A vital component that many people forget is preparation as a community. Self-sufficiency tends to lead to some amount of isolation. My own little slice of heaven in North Idaho is a prime example.  Almost every resident of my small rural town is independent, largely self-reliant, skilled, practiced and ready for everything from extreme weather to MZB attacks.  Each of us knows the neighbors who are in our immediate vicinity, and within that small area we all share goods as needed and assist when the situation calls for it.  But until very recently, no one but the Postmaster could say he actually knew the majority of people in our community beyond a wave and a hello as they drove past.

Each micro-community, composed of anywhere from three to a dozen families, had social interaction at backyard barbecues, fireworks displays and 4H meetings, and teamwork interaction at such events as road clearing sessions after a big windstorm or snowstorm.  But these individual micro-communities did not interact regularly, did not know what skills or provisions each could contribute in times of widespread emergency, and most importantly did not know whom to call to rapidly disseminate important, time critical information about events that could impact the entire region.  We had no phone tree, no list of skill sets available within the town, and no plans for assistance beyond what each micro-community did as a matter of practice, informally developed over the years.  We were not truly prepared, even though most of us thought we were.

While it is still an ongoing process of refinement, as all preparations tend to be, we took an approach that may well serve your own community.  First, we advertised a community preparedness meeting, with enough advance notice that people could get it on their calendar if interested, but not so far in advance that it was forgotten by the time it arrived.  The invitation, via signs at the Post Office and Fire Station, and distributed via flyers, had three key elements:

It was to be an informal meeting with no governmental spin or involvement; it was to get folks talking about community preparations for a variety of situations where we could help each other out effectively, while maintaining our privacy and independence, and finally it would include some refreshments. You’d be surprised how many people are drawn by the prospect of home made brownies, fresh coffee and Huckleberry lemonade.

The meeting itself stressed that the purpose was to:

  • Help local citizens to get to know a few more of their neighbors, and
  • Expand preparedness thinking from just individual parcels or immediate neighbors to the entire community.

Also mentioned up front was that the meeting was not called in order to:
- Pry into anyone’s issues with their neighbors
- Get into political debate
- Gather information about peoples’ pantry, gun safe contents, or underground bunker…
- Violate privacy – personal or property
- Pressure anyone to participate
- Fill peoples’ calendars with meetings/activities

We reminded attendees that planning was important now:

- So that preparations can be done when we have time, resources, good weather, low stress levels
- So that friends and neighbors know how the community as a whole will respond, before any action is needed
- So that critical preparations are not overlooked
- So that shortfalls can be corrected before an event makes them a critical issue
- Because some preparations may take a long time
- To avoid excessive duplication of efforts

We talked about the various scenarios that might require the community to band together instead of trying to deal with the issue on our own, including wildfire, extreme weather, a major transportation interruption, a large scale natural (or man-made) disaster, economic meltdown or further acts of governmental tyranny.

We discussed the focal areas that might be established to get people with specific knowledge or skills involved on teams of resource planners/coordinators to allow the best response to the situation:

  • Communications
  • Emergency Resource planning/coordination

- - Food/water/fuels (consumables)
- - Personnel/Equipment/shelter (hard resources)
- Defensive systems
- Medical
- Fire
- - Advanced Preparedness
- - First response
- Unusual hazards and situations

We asked attendees to sign up, voluntarily, for areas where they felt they could add benefit by thinking and researching, providing leadership or just helping out on a time available basis.

We established a web site where residents can find out – at their convenience – about meetings of possible interest; tips from others on various topics such as food preservation, animal husbandry, and ammo reloading; updates to community contact lists; and other information that may be of value but does not warrant continual phone calls or E-mail messages.

We created a phone tree that allows any person to make as few as three calls and be confident that within 5-10 minutes the vast majority of residents had either been personally contacted or had a message left on their phone machine.  The mechanism is simple:
A small handful of people’s names and numbers are at the top of the tree.
The citizen who sees or hears about an imminent danger calls each of these top-tier persons or – if they do not answer – one of the people on the next tier down.
Each of those called passes the message along – briefly but specifically – to each of the names just below their own, on the tree.
Those people do the same until the bottom of each branch is reached, then those at the bottom make a “close the loop” call to each of the original top-tier residents.
[Note: elderly or invalid residents on the phone tree should be physically visited if they don’t answer the phone and the issue is potentially life threatening]

The close the loop step ensures that the community phone tree has been activated, at least partially, from top to bottom and allows cross-trunk communication if the line is severed unintentionally by personal or electronic difficulties.  A community of >1000 people can be reached in just five vertical steps if each person makes just four phone calls without duplication; six steps if only 3 calls per person are made. For events requiring continued updates, such as wildfire location or direction of approaching zombies, the web site can then be used to stay up to date without tying up the phone lines again and again.  To ensure that the phone system itself does not cause a breakdown in communications, the community should have backup schemes as many layers deep as necessary, including CBs or other pre-established radio lines, “pony express” mechanisms using car, ATV, snowmobile, horse, dogsled or whatever makes sense in your region.  This one step alone can dramatically improve your overall preparedness as you will have hundreds of trusted eyes and ears scanning for dangers, hundreds of hands and minds that may be applied to a situation that would overwhelm your own family’s abilities, and a means to call on resources beyond your own wealth – as long as the spirit of give and take is kept balanced and not abused.

Beyond these steps, you might also consider establishing an appropriate number of recurring activities or meetings, whether they are weekly or quarterly as prescribed by the level of availability and interest; fleshing out or refining your community preparedness plans based on detailed threat scenarios that seem likely for your area; establishing response plans, including identification of leaders and supporters; and holding community response drills to see what holes you’ve missed so they can be corrected before a real crisis comes along.  As a final thought for consideration, a hand-cranked 110 dB siren suitable for notifying all locals within a considerable distance that they need to get on “the community net” can be had very affordably on your favorite auction site…

Now you can go clean your M1A again while gazing fondly at your stuffed pantry shelves, secure in the knowledge that you probably are about as ready as you’ll ever be.

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Tuesday September 1 2009

Developing Our Family's Survival Strategy, by FBP

We started prepping about 18 months ago. I have felt like a chicken with its head cut off, going wildly in all directions. I’ve learned a lot about a lot, some by research, but have learned most from doing. Being prior military (I served six years in the Army Captain, and as a civilian, I was a financial planner), I started identifying mission statements and initiating plans, backwards (aka backwards planning) in order to get them accomplished on time.

The first mission: “How do we survive hyperinflation?” My readings led me to believe that the best protection is to plan on not needing to spend money on stuff and save money for taxes. The question is how to accomplish that! I concluded that becoming as self-sufficient as possible and inter-dependent and mutually supportive with other like-minded persons.

Another mission: “How to survive societal meltdown with options and strategies.” We determined that we needed to prepare in-place in our current home while we simultaneously worked to identify a homestead, but one that also optimized our security needs under a societal meltdown scenario. We had to define those security needs and defensive goals. We also decided to initiate some basic security in-place.

What kind of retreat? What does one need for a retreat and where? Our pursuits included looking at everything from two perspectives, the retreat and the in-place strategy. We have decided that if we haven’t relocated, that bugging out would entail leaving the majority our resources and is not a viable option. We will defend in place if we don’t get relocated before TEOTWAWKI.

My research indicated that to be fully self-sufficient where we not only grow our own food, but also that of our livestock, that we would need around 15 acres. Notably, a 5 acre homestead would do a lot! In researching homesteading and agriculture in-place alternatives I found out that Cubans grow 70% of their own food in the cities! I found that there are several cases of very small acreage homesteaders of an acre or less growing nearly all their needs! I recently discovered that I wouldn’t need to preserve so much if, instead of a huge garden once a year, I maintained a year-round greenhouse and grew what we needed on a staggered rotation basis inside the greenhouse with fresh food all the time! This year a summer thunderstorm hail storm wrecked a good portion of my garden and reminded me of the need for having a storage pantry! I will be doing a bit of both, for safety.

Other factors which have bearing on the retreat are:
1. Water. We wanted a creek, and especially if it had hydroelectric possibilities year-round; plus sub-irrigated property, and possibly a spring. Meanwhile, we have purchased a number of water barrels, filled them, and discovered some alternatives to ‘keep’ the water: bleach every 6 months, or other additives which could keep it up to 5 years, or boil it before use, and /or filter it. We bought a water filter system. Wells are acceptable for domestic use, but we still want a dependable surface water source in case the well ran dry. We found information available on property wells on the Internet under ‘well logs’ and the respective state.

[JWR Adds: Finding a property with sub-irrigated pasture is great, as is finding a property with micro-hydro development potential. But finding a parcel with both is a genuine rarity, because land that is sub-irrigated is almost always dead-level, near a stream or river. But for good micro-hydro power, you need a fast-flowing creek or river, with plenty of "fall" that you can exploit. For that, you need hilly property, not "bottom land." So those two goals are almost mutually exclusive, unless you buy a huge parcel that has both features.]

2. Sun. We looked at properties, and in particular, the garden and agricultural spots for solar exposure. This is affected by location such as northern or southern latitude, proximity to trees and hills, sun-angles including winter sun. We also looked into Solar for Solar Power. We found hydro-electric power to be less expensive and more available than solar so we have decided to make hydro a priority on our retreat search.

3. Soils. Self-sufficiency is agricultural based so having access to good soils for crops and livestock is paramount. Soil also needs to drain well for crops and septic systems as well. Meanwhile, our home garden soils have been amended (enriched) with compost and chicken manure and the garden looks like Hawaii, lush, green and prolific! The county ‘extension office’ was able to provide a lot of information about the agriculture in the local area of interest.

4. Elevation. The higher the elevation of the property, the shorter the growing season is. We determined that we preferred properties below 2,400 feet elevation, and although we love Montana, we found that virtually the entire state is above 3,000 feet, and Wyoming is largely over 4,000 feet, Northern Arizona is high elevation too! So, for agriculture, we like parts of Washington, Idaho and Oregon.

5. Population. After fairly extensive scouting of the territory, we found that a lot of the country is fairly densely populated, especially the good agricultural areas! It takes a lot of research, to locate remote properties. We found a useful tool for this research is the Internet, and specifically, Windermere.com (which also has aerial views) and Google Maps (which has terrain view) and MapQuest.com (aerial view). We found that the listing office web site often had additional information and pictures available. The SurvivalBlog provided a link to a great city population comparison tool at Moving.com.

6. Security. There are numerous factors to consider when contemplating retreat security, including in-place home security: the Lay of the land, Visibility, Obstacles, Community, Alert systems, Accessibility, Cache, Population, and Ammunition. Regarding Ammunition, if we need to defend in place in our current home, it would be appropriate to have more shotguns and handguns for the home. Rifle fire in a residential neighborhood is not a good choice. We don’t want bullets flying out through the neighbor’s property. Looking at fields of fire and early warning systems has become a high priority. We remember that it was during the Los Angeles riots that the armed Korean businesses were left alone, passed on by and onto easier targets. Being armed is important!

How does one survive hyperinflation? Research includes Harry Figgie's book Bankruptcy 1995, in which Chapter 8 spells out the history of hyperinflation. I figure that the US didn't go Bankrupt in 1995 because it has been spending Social Security funds for operating capital. Can you spell Ponzi scheme? Other research included the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic 1923, Argentina 2001, and Zimbabwe today. I have obtained an actual 100 Trillion Zimbabwe dollar note, worthless and no longer a currency, as a reminder of where we are headed. The Zimbabwean people have to pan for gold to buy bread. With worthless currency, the population (will that be us?) cannot get paid enough to keep up with the ever increasing costs of things and cannot afford heat, or food.

It is my belief that hyperinflation can be survived primarily through Homesteading and Self-sufficiency and/or inter-dependence in a tight-knit group. Essential Elements for self-sufficiency and which I/we have done include:
1. Canning. With the Ball Blue Book of Preserving, which is about $6 at Wal-Mart, you can ‘can’ almost everything you may want to put up including meat, vegetables, and even condiments and meals! I also discovered Lehman's catalog is indispensable for homesteading tools!
2. Gardening, Green House gardening, Container Gardening, and growing Herbs. This year I have learned about non-hybrid seeds, to grow crops that I can and did save the seeds to grow the same crop next year without having to buy seeds. I also saved seeds from fruits and vegetables eaten and successfully grew and harvested crops this year from them!
3. Dehydrating (vacuum sealing jars and crock-pot meals) http://www.excaliburdehydrator.com/media.php These 9 incredible videos are on dehydrating foods and preparing meals, really quickly too.
4. Making bread (wonderful resources are at www.youtube.com and www.cook.com and many more.)
5. Making cheese (with friends)
6. Spinning wool (with friends)
7. Food storage long-term, Poly buckets, Mylar bags
8. Inventory management (FIFO) Pantry rotation
9. Cooking out of the pantry (www.backwoodshome.com) "Store what you eat and eat what you store!"
10. How to make stuff from scratch (baking powder, toothpaste, shampoo, dinner Not in a Box, beer, soda, root beer, ice cream, yogurt, cheese, butter, soaps, sew, automotive repair/rebuild, and much much more…)
11. Water. Water barrels and RV water system. Roof is ample for rain collection and plan on the above ground swimming pool for a holding tank.
12. Power. Our new China Diesel generator from India is nearly finished (teardown/rebuilt). It should run for 30 years. Long term fuel supplies will be a ongoing need.
13. Refuse/Garbage/Recycle … by canning and making from scratch, we have virtually eliminated ‘trash’. Leftovers get reused and consumed in casseroles, stews or other dishes and / or fed to the dog. Vegetable remnants go to the compost. Yard and trees waste get run through our shredder and put into the compost pile for our garden. We run two compost piles year-round.
13. Livestock. Currently in town, we are planning on chickens, rabbits, plus bees. We are fortunate enough to have an acre. If we are to make it on only an acre, we may have to barter for livestock feed because we may not have enough land to grow it. We can at a minimum raise rabbits for meat. We have city friends which have raised chickens, rabbits, bees, and sheep successfully for years. We look forward to a remote retreat where we will have more options for livestock.

How do we survive a melt-down crisis?
We decided that we wanted to provide for at least a year of reserves. We came to that conclusion calculating that our food supplies would need to carry us until we got the garden harvested in the year following the collapse; and, time to acquire and raise livestock (hopefully we would have chickens, rabbits and goats at a minimum before meltdown; but, if not, we have alternative foods stored for a minimum of a year!) We determined that there are several ways to achieve this goal depending upon timeframe, time you have to do it yourself, and money. First you have to determine what you need and how much. This can be quite involved depending upon your approach. Then your options are: Meals-Ready-to Eat (MREs), packaged foods such as Mountain House or Alpine Air which are either freeze-dried or dehydrated and you just add water, or you do it yourself, which gives you some flexibility and more important ‘repeatability’, but is very time consuming, and that is important if you think there is not much time left. You may want to ‘acquire’ a year’s supply of food package, and then learn ‘how to’ as you go. We found poly-buckets free at Costco Bakery, and for a nominal cost at Nalley's. Yes, they smelled of icing or pickles, but washed up fine and are food grade. With Mylar bags and CO2 from the local welding shop, we put up food stores readily.

In addition to food, we wanted a year’s store of normal shopping of household supplies: toilet paper, aluminum foil, plastic wrap, (handkerchiefs instead of Kleenex tissues), (towels instead of paper towels), laundry soap, bar soap, shampoo (sure we could make it, but we’d need “fat” and “hardwood ashes” to make it ourselves), medical supplies for general medicinal and also for emergencies: bleeding, dental, disease / quarantine supplies (masks, gloves, antiseptics), etc. We also anticipate that the banking system will not be available, i.e. there will be no operational ATMs, no open Teller Windows, and credit cards will be declined/inoperable. We set aside an amount of “cash”, today’s currency, for our crisis operating capital, and some in silver. We liquidated some IRAs to obtain the assets now. To us, these assets are better now to get prepared and are better than having more, but worthless currency in the future. The saying, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush, comes to mind. We have researched the metals markets and deemed them manipulated but with lots of upside (see Ted Butler's commentaries). We feel that one of the best investments is agricultural real estate.

We are debt free and hope to stay that way. We own our own home free and clear. This is not to brag or make someone feel bad, but rather to motivate you to wonder how. It is by not being a ‘consumer’, but by being balanced and frugal, buying what we needed, foregoing vacations, doing without ‘designer labeled jeans’, without landscaping, however we did invest in having a dump truck load of dirt dropped in the backyard for the garden since all we had was rocks for soil. We have several original household appliances and fixed them when they broke instead of getting new ones. We buy good used cars, maintain them well and keep them for years as long as they meet our needs.

I believe that there is a game of keep-away when it comes to how to get and stay ahead financially. The banks and others profit more by people remaining ‘consumers’ and participating as a throw-away society. Massive disinformation exists to misdirect and profit from the populace efforts. A lot of wealth for others is made and maintained by keeping the populace misinformed about financial tools, how they work and what they are used for correctly. However, ‘financial tools’ (CDs, Stocks, Insurance, Loans) are exactly that, “tools”! Tools can be an incredible resource and can help us build monuments, or can be deadly weapons that can destroy us.

Financial success starts with you. Identify your ‘needs’. Spend to meet your needs, not to ‘save’ on an on-sale item that you truly didn’t ‘need’. Shop wisely. Will second-hand merchandise meet your needs; can the item be repaired, etc.? Take care of your things and you don’t have to replace them so often.

You need to shop and learn about financial tools to meet your goals. The first is the placement of your savings (short-term, mid-term, long-term). There are numerous options with a few listed below.

Banks ‘are not your friends’! They are a ‘Tool’! They are a place to situate your short-term cash--your working capital that is used to pay bills.

Loanership dollars where you loan your money for a rate of return to you (interest): Banks (CDs), Money Markets, Insurance Companies (annuities), Corporate (Bonds), Municipal (Bonds), and Government (Bonds).

Ownership dollars where you invest your money and accept ownership risks (of loss or gain):
Stocks (owning a fractional interest in a company), real estate (your home, other real estate), Partnerships (business enterprise, etc.), and Precious Metals.

Insurance is a “Tool”! You need insurance to cover the calamity expense/risk(s) which you cannot afford, only! Often, you are not informed that your premium would be much lower if you accepted a higher deductible. It might be inconvenient to have to pay $1,000 if your car was wrecked or your home damaged, or a major medical claim, but the insurance would cover a catastrophic loss!

A home loan is a tool too. The structure of a loan is important, fixed or variable. Variable contains a ‘gamble’ element. Unless it is stipulated otherwise, most home loans can be prepaid, or accelerated. You have the ability to pay an extra amount above the mortgage payment. This extra amount can be applied towards principal, which you need to specifically specify ‘apply to principal’! Pre-paying a mortgage, especially in the early years of a loan is one of the greatest savings rates a person can achieve!

We actually paid our 30 year mortgage off in about 12 years. Admittedly, our friends drove newer cars, went on vacations, have better furniture, prettier lawns, fancier clothes, and went out to dinner and the movies more than we did. However, we are debt free. Yes, we are still worried about tight finances and the world situation, but our current position is a lot less stressful than being loaded with lots of debt. It can be done, with sacrifices!

It is an imperative for Americans to educate themselves, to not trust the system. Find out about things. Get inquisitive and broaden your horizons. This year I have eaten cooked nettles. Yes, it was very good. It was similar to spinach and no nettle burn! I had Yak meat at a local restaurant and now want to pursue having Yaks for livestock. Learn new things and hard skills. Become creative and inventive; how else can it be done? Become flexible, find alternative ways of getting things done, adapt!

We have a small group of friends with whom we meet regularly, try new projects and explore ideas. Our daily ‘walks’ have helped us meet our neighbors. Our friends suggested that we hold a ‘Meltdown Neighborhood Tea Party’ Potluck get-together. That sounds like a good idea to meet our kind of people. I believe we can do anything we put our minds to, especially if we work together.

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Tuesday August 25 2009

Inventory Control for Retreat Logistics, by Rob C.

There is often a good deal of attention paid to the accumulation, storage and usage of critical supplies performed in the process of preparation, but one thing I rarely see discussed is proper management of your carefully gathered inventory before, during or after a critical event comes into being. 

It's important to consider viewing your family or team as a quasi business entity and recognize that one of the top cited reasons for small business failure is poor inventory management.  Inventory issues can cause nightmarish headaches for any business, and the consequences for your family will only be magnified if you do not begin to view you group, and their supplies, as important assets that necessitate careful management.

Throughout the article I'll refer to the inventory concepts using canned food as examples, but the procedures could be applied to anything you stock: from ammunition, to clothes, to cleaning supplies. 

First in, first out (FIFO) rotation of inventor should be used.  Generally you want to apply this concept to your food storage and consume the items you acquire first as soon as possible. It makes sense to mark dates on cans when you acquire the food, but do you relish the idea of staring at a huge shelf or bin of cans, buckets or jars and trying to determine which one to consume first?  The following control systems can make life much easier:

1) Split your items into color dated 'blocks'. 
For example, if you have canned goods you plan on consuming over the course of the coming year, mark six months worth of the oldest cans with a green marker and then mark the rest of your cans with a red marker.  Items carrying the green mark get first used. 

This will create a quick and easy visual trigger every time you dip into your inventory.  When you begin to break into your red inventory, it's time to pull up another six months worth of cans and mark those with your green marker.  A note or sign indicating which color is currently being consumed should be posted near by so all members who have the ability to draw on your resources are sure to take the proper goods. A bit of time spent once a month saves countless hours digging through supplies looking for the oldest items to consume first. 

2) Implement a simplified Kanban-esque system.
This is a process where a small amount of stock is kept on hand and is replaced as it nears depletion.  This process is mostly beneficial for helping you consume and replace inventory prior to a critical event. 

    - Have a portion of your supplies in a convenient location to the kitchen (again, ideally using the oldest first) and attach a small card to the last item of the 'lot' which lists the good being consumed, and the quantity that needs be replaced from your long term storage. 

    - When you reach the last item that has the card attached, you need to replenish your on hand stock with inventory from the long term location. The card should be placed in a re-order folder to ensure that your long-term storage has been re-supplied for the same amount you just pulled into normal, day-to-day usage. 

    - Upon re-supply, the card is attached once again to the last item of the lot and the process repeated, as needed, ensuring your replenishment process is accurate, timely and efficient. 

At a glance, you can look in your order folder and determine how much and what you need to be on the look out for in order to restore your long-term inventory to its pre-determined levels.  In this manner, you only re-order what you've used, and you ensure you're constantly rotating inventory to reduce the risk of spoilage.

As a quick example: you use one can of beans a day, keeping seven in your kitchen cabinet.  In your pantry you toss a card under can #7 that simply reads: Beans: 7.  When you get to the can of beans that sit atop this card, retrieve seven more from your storage and place the tracking card in your re-supply location.  At any time a review of this location would tell you every consumed item you need to replace for your long-term location.

3) Security and control. 
Ideally your inventory would be kept behind a gated barrier. While you'd like to assume that friends, family and your team would not stoop to theft, you never know what circumstances you may find yourself in that provides an exposure to your resources you never intended others to have.  In addition to the possibility of theft, you run the risk of children or others who are normally used to grabbing a snack whenever they like simply helping themselves, not through an act of maliciousness, but simply not realizing how the situation has changed.  To prevent this accidental (or otherwise) over consumption of supplies you should store inventory in a location not commonly accessed.  Keep your daily and generally consumed inventory readily accessible in a kitchen pantry, keep your long term supplies in a separate, locked facility.  This can be something as simple as a basement door where the knob has been replaced with a device that locks from the outside. 

I can't stress this point enough: The more casually you allow people to treat your long-term inventory, the more your errors will multiply. 

4) Visual inspection and count. 
How can your trade or use what you don't know you have?  You should conduct a full inventory count inventory twice a year.  Material should be counted and a general visual inspection conducted in order to identify any items or containers that might have visible damage.  If a container has become damaged, you may want to accelerate its usage or consider trading it to avoid wasting the contents inside.  If you identify a large container of goods early on that has become damaged that you have no hope of repairing or re-sealing, early detection will allow you to trade this off while it still holds some intrinsic value.  If you had waited a year and only discovered it when the decay was too far advanced, you could be forced to take an unsavory loss.  Value considerations aside, it's important to know what you believe you have is actually usable.  If you're depending on supply XXX and upon time of usage you discover it's a waste, not only do you find yourself at a loss for whatever you paid or traded for the item, you may now be short a critically important item. 

If you have a large group of people and supplies, you may want to increase this twice a year count to once a quarter. It's crucial you identify errors or missing items early only to keep small issues from snowballing to huge ones.  Quantity and quality inspections should have a primary counter and a second person verifying accuracy.

5) Record keeping. 
I'd suggest use computers while you can but print your records out, every time, so you have a hard copy.  A simple spreadsheet will do to start and if you don't have access to Microsoft Excel, you can utilize Google Docs to get started.  Your inventory records should include the item, the quantity, the date acquired and the use by date if applicable. 

This data allows you to track over time what you're using, and how often, and allows you to better prepare for not only your requirements, but also to identify what you may have that's not being fully utilized and trade it before you run the risk of spoilage.  When planning your food needs or trade possibilities, knowing you have 100 cans if item X is good; however, knowing half of those are 1 year past their use date and your consumption has dropped by a third would allow you to keep an eye open for possible barter opportunities in advance.

Try to keep your records in pencil.  Speaking from accounting experience, it's much easier to correct a mistake in pencil that it is in ink.  With a pen, over time, your records simply get sloppy from crossed out figures and attempted error corrections.

6) Second review on scrap or waste. 
Before any item is trashed or written off as a loss, obtain a second opinion.  One man’s trash is another's treasure and one of your group members may have knowledge of the item that allows you to squeeze the last few drops of value from something before your dispose of it.  Any value you can recover is better than 0.

It’s good to have stuff, be it ammunition, food or barter items. 

It’s better to have a lot of that stuff. 

It’s best to know exactly what you have, and when it’s approaching the end of its life, so you can use it in a timely fashion or trade it to someone who can. The topics above only touch on the very, rudimentary basics of inventory control but it's important to consider proper management of your assets and realize the benefits you can obtain through accurate tracking, control and utilization of your material resources. 

JWR Adds: Keep in mind that cooking oil that has gone rancid is often still quite suitable for stretching your diesel supply. (In effect, formulating your own biodiesel, up to 10 percent, by volume, in hot weather. This is not recommended for cold weather unless you have a fuel tank heater, or a fully-capable biodiesel making system and a vehicle that is rigged with two tanks--one for biodiesel and the other with dinodiesel, that is used when starting up and shutting down your vehicle.) And food that is no longer palatable for humans because of taste issues (rather than rancidity) are often still safe to feed to poultry or swine.

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Friday August 21 2009

Letter Re: Preparedness for Living on a Chesapeake Bay Island

Mr. Rawles,
I am just now (pretty late in the game, I know) becoming aware of the impending collapse and have begun reading your blog regularly (it is the first thing I read in the mornings now). I realize now that I must prepare as much as I can and have a question about my current location. I live on an isolated (no bridges, ferry and airplane transport only) Island in the Chesapeake Bay. It is somewhat densely populated for its size, but everyone knows each other and most residents hunt and fish and have their own boats. Many residents are quite self sufficient and the crime rate is virtually non- existent. I realize we are downwind of several nuclear targets (DC is only about 70 miles away as the crow flies) but this area (the Delmarva Peninsula) and this island in particular are sparsely populated. I recently bought a house here and cannot afford to move anywhere anytime soon, and if I could, I could only get to rural western Virginia, West Virginia, or Eastern Kentucky at the furthest. The only benefit of my current locale is that in the event of a collapse, it would be isolated and looters would be unable to get here. On the other hand, there would be 500+ residents and little or no fuel to power fishing vessels after current supplies run out. The climate is mild and we could get by with little or no heat in the winter. Much of the surrounding land is swampland and not conducive to agriculture. There are few firearms on the Island other than a few shotguns for duck hunting. I currently own a Glock 21 (.45 ACP) for personal protection and am looking into rifles. I would like an M1A but probably could not afford one. How could I make my current situation more suited to riding out a crisis? Any response will be greatly appreciated. Very Respectfully, - R.T.

JWR Replies: A few things come immediately to mind:

  • You should stock up on fuel for your own use, and for barter.) Coleman white gas has a 6+ year shelf life, and can be used in engines as well as lanterns and stoves.
  • Stock up on two-cycle fuel-mixing oil. (For chainsaws and older outboard engines.)
  • Have a large propane tank installed, and make sure that it is has a wet leg. (So that it can be used to fill smaller containers.)
  • If you don't have one already, get a tri-fuel generator, and a photovoltaic power system if you can afford it.
  • You need a long gun for defense. Even if it is just a well-used "beater" Mauser, Mosin-Nagant, or Enfield bolt-action, that is better than nothing. And in essence, what you currently have is almost nothing.(Don't bring just a pistol to a rifle fight!)
  • Stock up on non-hybrid gardening seeds. (Several of my advertisers sell them.) Also, build up your topsoil!

Your situation is unusual, but not unique. Make the best of the local resources, and organize with your neighbors to provide a common defense.

One could safely predict that in the event of a "slow slide" depression, you may see a situation develop similar to that of present-day Roatan Island (off the coast of Honduras), where burglars and even home invasion robbers commute to the island from the mainland via ferryboat.

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Tuesday August 18 2009

Barter Goods -- A Woman's Perspective, by "Wry Catcher"

Most of the survival information published today comes from thoughtful and hardy men who plan, prepare, and protect themselves and their families from disasters.  My admiration and appreciate for such men cannot be overemphasized. I doff my hard hat to all of you. There are, however, some elements of survival that are perhaps better served from a woman’s perspective. In particular, this article focuses on barter goods – those items that can be traded to other survivors for an improved quality of life or for basic necessity.

For purposes of clarity and ease of reference, this article is divided into age groups.  That’s because each age group has a specific set of needs and wants, aside from basic survival supplies. Let’s get to it! 

Infants and Toddlers
Baby Formula: Mixed with water, formula is an essential component of a youngster under two years of age when the mother is unavailable due to illness or injury or death, or the mom is not lactating. Containers of dehydrated or condensed formula may be bartered to those who need it.  It may also become necessary to barter for it. Although the condensed version can be heavy and bulky, it is often more desired for its flavor.  Additionally, it requires less water for mixing. Dehydrated formula is easier to transport and one package produces more product than wet formula, but it requires more water for dilution and its taste is less pleasing than condensed. Of the two basic forms of formula, however, this survivalist would opt for dehydrated formula as a useful and valuable barter item.   

Chew Toys: Chew toys aren’t just for dogs.  Very young children like chew toys, too. The toys help with teething and they keep a child content when parents are busy. Be sure to acquire those that have no extraneous parts, and any painted surfaces must be non-toxic and non-allergenic. To be safe, buy those that are made of new materials and have little or no decoration that could come off, including surface colorations. Go for the plain models, in other words. The child who wants a chew toy is not looking for anything fancy, just something to mouth.  Do not acquire a chew toy that could be swallowed or could block the airway. The toy must be too large to fit wholly within the child’s mouth. Any store specializing in infants and toddlers should have a wide array of acceptable chew toys, although they may prefer the term “teething ring” to “chew toy.”  Most people working to survive a disaster of any type are not going to plan for something as specific as a child’s chew toy. They will, however, soon learn that their young one will be much happier and therefore much less fussy if there is something fun and safe to chew on. The toys will make good barter for adults with young children, and chew toys take up little space and weigh next to nothing. If teething infants are not part of your survival group, these toys may be used as dogs’ chew toys or as older children’s playthings if not too infantile in decoration. Keeping the toys simple will make them more versatile.

Pull Toys.  Toddlers like to walk, and when they walk, they like to drag something along with them. A few inexpensive pull toys will provide hours of enjoyment for them.   If the toy makes a little noise, the fun is doubled. Beware those that have excessive parts – they are harder to repair and could become a choking hazard.  

Ages 4 – 9
Crayons & Coloring Books.  Nothing keeps a youngster as content and therefore as quiet and occupied as a set of crayons and a coloring book. Put aside some girl-oriented coloring books and some books appropriate for boys.  Girls like girly things: houses, clothes, female figures, rainbows, horses, and furry critters. Boys like trucks and tractors, robots, war scenes, cowboys and Indians scenarios, and outdoor scenes.  These are the types of outlines that coloring books should contain in order to satisfy a child who is cast into a situation where her/his world may be vastly different and his/her friends may be unavailable.  If your own child has a particular preference, be sure to include that theme in your acquisition. Published coloring books will have gender-specific covers that will immediately signal whether they are more appropriate for boys or for girls.  Crayons should be non-toxic and come in a wide variety of colors. Acquire several boxes of crayons and do not remove them from their boxes, they will be less likely to melt. Obtain or make several coloring books, some for your own children and some for barter or charitable donations.  Downloading outlines and compiling them into 3-ring binders can be done in lieu of purchasing published books.  Kids of all ages might find them fun, whether they color on them or not. Older children may use the books for paper airplanes or for journals. Crayons are useful for adults, too, when an all-weather writing instrument is needed.

Hard candies add a sweet touch in what may otherwise be a sour situation.  Kids love candy, and giving them an individually wrapped hard candy at midmorning or mid-afternoon may be a treat that eases the change in routine which is an unavoidable part of any survival scenario. Although there are some drawbacks to storing candy, the rewards for doing so will offset any problems.  Store them in rodent proof containers and in a cool, dry location and they should be good for 12 months or more. Dental hygiene may be difficult, and too much of anything is seldom good, so ration the dole and don’t divulge the hiding place. Families will want to add some candy to their provisions, so lay in a supply of individually wrapped hard candies.  [JWR Adds: The ingredients for candy store much longer that wrapped candies, but even old candy that has "gone sticky" is generally still safe to eat. An annual candy-making session can be a lot of fun for kids, and it is also economical. Our favorite to make at home is molasses taffy.]

Clutch Toys.  Yard sales often provide an inexpensive source for small, fluffy clutch toys. These are toys that young children can carry with them for comfort and companionship. Look for small, soft toys and dolls that are clean and, whenever possible, brand new in the package. All loving parents want their children to be happy whether in good times or bad, so items that children want will make good barter items.      

Ages 10 – 13
Brain & Drain Items. This age group may be the most difficult to keep occupied and happy. Full of energy, full of questions, and accustomed to technological gadgetry, these young people need to keep their minds and their bodies busy. They need to use their brains and drain their physical energy.  A few jigsaw puzzles or pocket-size game books (don’t forget the pencils) will suffice for after-dinner wind-down time, but these kids need something more challenging and physical during the day.  A couple of Frisbees or a boomerang may keep the boys busy for a while. Girls may enjoy a small cosmetic set (with a built-in mirror) or a compact sewing kit with several colorful fabric scraps.  Don’t forget decks of cards for those inclement weather days. A small paperback book enumerating card game rules will help resolve the disputes that invariably arise from such games. Decks of cards for specific games, such as Pinochle, Crazy Eights, Touring, and Old Maid will make a more interesting barter item. Get generic decks of cards as well as  decks of specific card games to use as small, lightweight trade enticements. A colorful, genuine jump-rope would be prized by any girl in this age bracket. And boys might enjoy a Nerf ball.  I’d steer clear of baseballs and the like in order to avoid injury and damage. Kids this age are creative and will make up various games with simple items when they get bored. Having some of those simple items as barter bait may be a good investment.  

Ages 14 – 17
Independent & Vital.  This age group wants to be treated as adults, that’s true whether in a survival situation or not. Treat them as such.  These young adults should be given some responsibility, for their own sake and so that the true adults have fewer tasks. Give them something meaningful to do and they will prove themselves. Let them instruct the younger children.  Perhaps they can devise a gentle means of discipline for their siblings.  Ask them to forage, if necessary. Assign tasks to them that require some thought and/or some physical prowess, and make those tasks unique to them. Provide them with some of the trappings of adulthood.  Adult trappings for young men may include:  a good quality knife, a multi-tool, a locking cache box, or their own small tent for privacy.  The females in this age category may appreciate name-brand cosmetic kits, a shoulder bag (purse), or a colorful pair of sandals. These young people are seeking their place in life. They want to be set apart yet they also want to be an important part of the family. Items that help them attain a sense of usefulness and equality will be practical in barter negotiations.

Senior Citizens
Along with infants, this age group will likely need the most attention and care. That is not to say they should be ignored or resented, but it does mean they present an opportunity for the clever and well-prepared barterer. Having what they need and want may enable you to get whatever you need and want.

Personal Care.  Denture cream, magnifying glasses, packets of facial tissues, hand creams, bucket hats (this style of hat is often worn by both men and women), cold packs, heat packs, compact chess and checker sets, large print puzzle books (don’t forget the pencils), condoms, over-the-counter anti-inflammatory medications,  Ben-Gay, Vick's Vap-O-Rub, hard candies, and sunglasses.  While perhaps not as vigorous as they once were, these elderly folks can provide much depth and affection in a family, particularly for the children.  They should be treated with the respect and care they deserve. When they or their family have nothing to trade, a caring person will provide the barter item anyway. That’s what keeps us human.  

Adults
Almost Anything
.  Those people who fall between the ages of 19 and 64 carry the majority of the burden in providing for themselves and their families in all life’s situations.  Of course there are exceptions, but generally speaking that age group has the largest responsibility for the care and feeding of all others. As a trade-off, though, this age group is also the least likely to need extra help and supervision.  Still, we all like to have our own needs and desires fulfilled.

Some good barter items for this group, and in general, include pocket knives (get some small and colorful ones for the ladies), condoms, individual cosmetics, WISP (Colgate product) toothbrushes, .22 ammo, honey, Vaseline, sturdy work gloves in various sizes and colors, romance and mystery paperback books, spare batteries in various sizes,  feminine and masculine baseball-style caps, pocket sewing kits with spare buttons, eyeglass repair kits, used hand tools (hammers, wrenches, screwdrivers, folding pruning saws), tampons,  pencils and pens, journals, and bags of jerky. A word of caution:  don’t trade anything to anyone that could later be used against you or your family. For example, don’t barter ammo or a fixed-blade knife to someone you don’t trust, unless you absolutely need what they have and can’t get it elsewhere.     

Conclusion
No one can plan for every survival scenario.  What we can do, however, is set aside some items that can be bartered for those items we forgot, used up, or never knew we would need. The purpose of barter goods is to acquire honestly and peacefully what we want and need during times of trouble. These items also work well as charitable gifts to those in a worse way. All the items listed in this article are inexpensive and easy to acquire now, so start acquiring them now.  They take up little space and their individual weight is negligible.. Most of these things can be set aside for years, with nary a concern for their stability. Some can be obtained at yard sales or discount stores, other items can be purchased over a period of time. Each item will prove its value, whether for the specified age group or for a purpose not outlined above.  In other words, you will not be wasting your valuable space, time, or money by acquiring some or all of these items in small quantities.  I urge you to study the suggestions, think of some of your own, and create a separate bin, box, or bag for barter items.  Then place that container with your other survival gear. Good luck and God bless!

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Sunday August 16 2009

Letter Re: Viability of a Well-Stocked Suburban Retreat?

Good Morning!
Thank you for the info you provide for all of us in your web site. I live in the Kansas City Area in a beautiful suburb which is one of the nicest cities in the country. till doing okay in the depression too. My work is secure and I do well and I own my own twp-story with basement frame home and have been making it a retreat for the past five years. I have no debt and am 60 days ahead with my mortgage and insurance and utilities. Am I absolutely crazy to try to stay here when things go bad?

First, let me tell you what I have done. I have a new roof ,which is fireproof. I have two large fire extinguishers in each room and more in the basement and garage and attic and I have a 2-inch fire hose with Honda generator to pull water from my 2,000 gallon swimming pool/fountain as well as from my 2,000 gallon [combined capacity] plastic tanks under the deck. Yes, they will freeze in the winter so I may add a new tank in the basement. I have 100 50-pound bags of sand which can also put out fires [and double as ballistic protection].

I have a strong 7' wood cedar privacy fence around my back and side yards and I have landscaped them such that it is difficult to see into my yard from any point but still need to add a few more tall bushes to screen my home. I brought in 80 [cubic] yards of great topsoil for the backyard to level it and to add garden areas so I can grow lots of food. I have a gutter system hooked up to the water storage and I have 3 months of water stored now in the basement and when the time comes new 55 gallon water barrels with hand pumps will be in each of my 4 bath rooms and kitchen. There is a pond and active stream 200' from my home and 5 of my neighbors next door and up hill from me have large swimming pools that I can siphon water from. I can produce clean water for 25 for 20 years with my water filters. So I have five ways to get water when the tap stops running.

I can feed my family for more than five years and then grow food too. I have all the stuff you buy in the stores weekly. I can grow food inside or outside and in a greenhouse too that is next to the house which can be heated with the natural warmth of the earth /basement and wood-burning stove, and sunshine.

We can protect ourselves better than anyone you might know, night and day. I have tried to set up my perimeter in my yard using the fence and bushes and trees and berms, etc. without anyone seeing the difference so that a stray bullet or two will not hit us easily. I will build gravel plywood walls in key places inside when TSHTF to reduce stray bullets. My fireplace is 5' x 5' x 4' deep so I can burn 4' foot logs and keep half my home warm and the firewood is placed outside on the side yards to slow down a bullet or two. The fireplace outside is 10' wide and goes above the roof. I have a wood stack 10 yards long, half of it is 4' long wood. I built a barbeque grill/water fall/pool that is solid 12' concrete that works well to stop bullets and it is 20' long and 8' high and looks really cool too.
In my basement I am finishing I added some 12" concrete walls to also give more strength to the floor above and to
slow down a bullet or two.

There are thick forests within 200' of my neighborhood to hide in if necessary and they run the stream for 50 miles. I have a nice "wine room" that is built to Joel Skousen standards [per his book The Secure Home] just in case the web bots are right and we have a problem with radiation.

I may have missed to say a thing or two but have been through others check lists to cover it all.

Can I make it in the city? Or do I want to be a refugee or try to live with friends four normal driving hours away without my stuff?

Thanks, - B., Near K.C.

JWR Replies: Your preparations are excellent for someone living in the suburbs. I believe that your plans to stay in place will probably suffice for all but a true worst-case scenario. But it is important to get to know your contiguous neighbors well, including the neighbors behind your back fence. Having neighbors that you know on a first name basis, and that you can trust in times of Deep Drama will be crucial in the next decade. At present, my best estimate is that we will likely experience an economic depression that will be on a par with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Crime will be rampant, and you will need to institute a Neighborhood Watch on Steroids. That necessitates solid familiarity and trust.

Attached greenhouses are wonderful for situations where there isn't much home invasion crime, but they are a huge security risk in inimical times.

I recommend that you hedge your bets by pre-positioning some of your supplies with your friends, in anticipation of worst-case grid down collapse, where the municipal water will not be available. This is not a major issue for you, since you have an abundance of stored water, and rainwater collection system. But "grid down" will be a true disaster for your neighbors within just a few days. They will likely abandon their houses, leaving you by yourself to defend against large numbers of very desperate looters. You mentioned that you have a five year food supply --which is quite commendable--I'd recommend that you store up to half of it with your friends in the country. Keep in mind that you may only have the opportunity to make one trip Outta Dodge, so it is important to have some crucial logistics stored at your backup retreat.

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Wednesday August 12 2009

Preparedness Beginnings, by "Two Dogs"

I am a retired Marine Corps officer and Naval Aviator (jets and helicopters), commercial airplane and helicopter pilot, and most recently, an aircraft operations manager for a Federal agency.

I graduated from numerous military schools, including the U.S. Army Airborne (“jump”) School, U.S. Navy Divers School, Army helicopter, and Navy advanced jet schools. In addition, I have attended military “survival” courses whose primary focus was generally short-term survival off the land, escape from capture, and recovery from remote areas.  Like most Marine officers, I attended The Basic School, an 8-month school (only five during the Vietnam era – my case), which is still designed to produce a second lieutenant who is trained and motivated to lead a 35-40 man platoon of Marines in combat.  This course covers everything from field sanitation to squad and platoon tactics, artillery and other ordnance delivery, communications, reconnaissance, intelligence, firearms training, and much more.   Later, I attended the Marine Amphibious Warfare School and the Command and Staff College, both follow-on schools and centered upon the academic study of tactics and strategy as they applied to the missions of the Marine Corps.  I flew helicopters offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and across the U.S. I found out first hand how thoroughly corrupted is the federal bureaucracy and the government, in general.  Not a pleasant experience. I’d rather have been flying. I have bachelor's and master's degrees.

As a result, my wife of forty years and I seem to have been moving endlessly from place-to-place.  Nevertheless, I have tried in each place to do what I could to maintain a level of self-sufficiency for my family that varied greatly with locations and personal finances. My intention here is to try to share some of the less-than-perfect ways that I have tried to accomplish that end. 

Only in the last few years, primarily as a result of the political and fiscal situation in the U.S., have I begun reading some of the huge amounts of literature about how one can prepare for serious long-term off-the-grid survival.  I have found that the preparation required to be ready for that contingency seems to be endless.  I do not want to talk about all of those preparations.  Others have done so very well, and besides, I’m not there, yet.  What I would like to do is to talk to those, perhaps like me, who are not true survivalists in the commonly referred-to sense, but who are genuinely concerned about the future of this country, and might desire, like me, to begin to prepare. Perhaps my elementary and simplistic efforts might be of help to someone else who is beginning to think about the subject of preparedness.  There are many scenarios that might require this, but the two that I am thinking most about are economic collapse and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. I’m building small Faraday boxes, but not doing much else for EMP.

My thinking on begins with my own estimation of the basic problems:  shelter, water, food, fuel, and security.  I view these as the most critical needs, whether living in a tent or other outdoor shelter or here in our rural home in West Virginia. Here I have and often take for granted what I have -- shelter, well water, a small stream, a pond, a rain barrel; canned, dried, frozen, and freeze-dried foods; fuel for the generator and portable stoves, kerosene heater and lanterns; factory-made and reloaded ammunition for any one of several firearms.  Edible plant books. Gardening books. Encyclopedia of Country Living-type books. Reloading books. Hunting books. Tracking books. A few novels devoted to the “what ifs” of the future, including Jim Rawles' excellent "Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse", for example.  Books to fill an entire bookcase.  The Boy Scout Field Book sits right there next to the military survival manuals, as do Tom Brown's Field Guides, the The Foxfire Book series, a canning book, field medical books, and quite a few others.

Those are the basic things about which I think. I have been thinking about them for quite a while, in fact, longer than I even realized.  Perhaps I’ve been thinking about them ever since I was a young lad.   For example, my very first “survival book” was the Boy Scout Field Book, the original of which I still have (circa late-1950s edition). It is still a great reference if one is looking for an all-in-one manual for starting fires, making simple shelters, recognizing game tracks, tying knots, and much more.  I note that it is still available on Amazon.com. (It’s probably been scrubbed to favor the politically correct, but don’t know [JWR Adds: Yes, I can confirm that unfortunately it has been made politically correct--with the traditional woodcraft skills showing any injury to innocent and defenseless trees duly expunged. So I advise searching for pre-1970 editions!] ) One does not necessarily need the SAS Survival Handbook or the U.S. Army survival manual. I have them and have read them. They do cover security problems, but then don’t cover other topics.  Alas, there appear to be no “perfect” manuals, and the Boy Scout Field Book is no exception.  But it’s not a bad beginning. And so I was beginning the journey even before I knew that I was. 

I think that my first education in “survival” came at about fourteen. That’s when I first shot a .30-06, an old [Model 19]03 Springfield. It pretty much rattled my cage.  Mostly, my older brother and I used to track and shoot small animals in the deep woods of Missouri as youngsters.  We were “issued” ten rounds of .22 LR ammo by our father, a retired USAF pilot, to be used in a bolt action, single shot, .22 rifle with open sights.  One would be surprised what that meager handful of loose ammunition could do for one’s choice of shots, one’s ability to be patient in waiting for the shot, and for one’s great satisfaction at having brought home six or eight squirrels for the cooking pot, having used just those ten rounds – and sometimes, but not often, less.  My point is that the knowledge of firearms is, in my view, basic to the notion of preparedness and in surviving in the wild. And it need not be exotic or overly complicated in nature.  One can surely attend modern schools that will teach one to double-tap a cardboard target or silhouette at seven yards with a semi-auto pistol, as well as basic and advanced tactical rifle courses, but very basic survival skill with a rifle can be had without much cost if one is committed to learning the skill and if one disciplines oneself. Start with only one round, and work up from there.  As Col. Jeff Cooper used to say, “Only hits count.”  In a purely off-the-grid survival scenario, I can envision that .22 LR rounds would be very precious, indeed.

Consequently, and even though I own handguns and rifles that will shoot .45 ACP, .44 Magnum/.44 Special, .357 Magnum/.38 Special, .380 ACP, .223, .25-06, .270, 7mm-08, .308, .7.62x39, .30-30, .30-06, and .45-70/.457 WWG Magnum (a wildcat), I shoot a .22 rifle and pistol more than all of the others, combined, and normally at least twice a week. And I’m hoarding them, as well as shooting them.  I have the capability to reload all the calibers (except .22 LR/Magnum, of course) above, as well as shotgun ammo in 12 and 20 gauge. I wasn’t really thinking of “survival” when deciding to do this about twenty years ago, but was interested only in having the capability to shoot more, and to do it more cheaply. Yet it appears that much of that ammo could be used for barter. I had never even considered this until reading some of the recent “survival novels.”

My apologies.  I’ve wandered into the weeds here, as I could do forever on my favorite subject.  Suffice it to say that whatever firearm one chooses – and make no mistake, one is necessary in my opinion -- there are all kinds of reasons to choose one over the other, depending on the situation and the person. One must endeavor to shoot it well. Owning a firearm is of almost no consequence, at all, unless it is properly employed.  Personally, I prefer a M1911 .45 ACP pistol and a 7.62 M1A SOCOM, while my wife is comfortable with the milder .38 [S&W] revolver and 20 gauge. pump shotgun.  I won’t even begin to get into the debate over .223 vs .308 and 9mm vs. .45 ACP.  Suffice it to say that in Vietnam I had the opportunity to see the effects of all of these, and I chose for my own security the .308 and .45 ACP.

Having got my favorite subject out of the way, I’ll talk about one that is likely even more important.  Water.  It is amazing how complicated this can be, and how many choices one has to solve this problem.  I have not yet solved it.  I have put up a rain barrel, and plan to get a couple more.  It’s amazing how rapidly a 55 gallon barrel will fill in even a moderate thunderstorm.  I got mine from Aaron’s Rain Barrels. http://www.ne-design.net/. I’ve camo-painted the first one to make it recede into the bushes that surround it.  

We have a very shallow stream down the hill that I need to dam so that it keeps only about a foot-or-two deep pool for gathering some water. It flows into a large pond, of which we own half (The owner of neighboring property owns the other half.).  But that’s over a hundred-yard trek downhill with empty buckets, and the same distance uphill with full ones.  Now, while that is okay for a backup, in my thinking, because I’m going on 63 years, I prefer to have something closer.  So my next “big” purchase will be a Simple Pump that allows one to drop a pump and pipe though one’s existing well casing down to below water level and extract water by means of a hand pump or DC motor attached to a battery which, in turn, will connect to a solar panel.  This is much, much cheaper than a Solar Jack.  At $1,200 for the hand pump capability (I’ll add on the DC and solar later), it’s a bargain, for me. See: http://www.survivalunlimited.com/deepwellpump.htm.  
I’m not recommending it for anyone, yet, as I haven’t got one. It has plenty of good reviews, and I’m willing to try it.  My apologies, but I am just talking about how I, for one, intend to solve my “water problem.” 

I’ve also started collecting clear plastic soda bottles for use in Solar Disinfection (SODIS), see; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_water_disinfection.  I’ve set up a rack for putting out the bottles in a sunny place.  Again, that’s a backup, but I’ll use it.

I have bought three different water filtering devices, the best of which is the Swiss-made, all-stainless Katadyn Pocket Microfilter.  It works wonders in that shallow stream and pond down the hill.. [JWR Adds: The same Katadyn filter model is available from several SurvivalBlog advertisers. They deserve your patronage first, folks!]

With the exception of the Simple Pump, these solutions are relatively cheap and effective, if not producers of great volume.  So far, they are what I’ve come up with.

I won’t go much into the food problem. It isn’t quite as complicated as the water problem.  I’ve either got to have it [stored], grow it, or kill it.  I’ve started storing all kinds of Mountain House freeze dried #10 cans (with expiration date dates in 2034), two-serving meals from Mountain House (expiration dates circa 2016), and numerous grocery store-type canned foods (expiration a couple years), in addition to dried beans, rice, Bisquick (sealed in plastic bags with desiccant inside), salt, sugar (Domino, which are sold in one-pound plastic tubs), olives, peanuts, wheat, etc.  Basically hit-or-miss, so far.  I need to get this “food problem” organized and do it right.  But it’s a start.  I think we’ve got only about a 60-day supply now, for two.

I’ve got two Coleman two-burner stoves.  One is a butane stove, and the other a dual fuel (white gas or unleaded gas), as well as several small backpacking stoves, the best of which is a MSR Whisperlite International, which uses virtually all fuel (unleaded, white gas, kerosene, diesel, and maybe even corn oil).   I was heavily into backpacking when we were stationed in Hawaii in the late 1970s, and still have all the gear.  After having one knee replacement and hedging doing another, I’ll not be backpacking if I can help it.  Nevertheless, I have two bug-out bags with essentials in them, ready to hit the trail if need be.  I’ve saved up and bought two good Wiggy's bags and a couple of his poncho liners.

Concerning backpacking stuff, I can recommend a book that I read back then called The Complete Walker, by Colin Fletcher. I haven’t read it in at least a decade, but its import is such that I remember much of it.  He emphasizes simplicity in gear.  That is to say, don’t pack a tent if you can get by with a tent fly – which you cannot in cold weather. I’ve still got my old three-season tent, but am saving up for a four-season. And he emphasizes: don’t worry about pounds – worry about ounces.  That is to say, if one is packing tea bags, remove the labels from the bags.  Ounces.  Remove all packaging material unless it is absolutely necessary (usually never). Don’t carry a “mess kit,” nor a knife, fork and spoon set.  A spoon will do (I’ve done it) along with a pocket knife. Now I have so many knives of so many types that I can’t remember them.  Personally, I’d go for a multi-tool.  But it’s heavy.  I never used to carry a weapon while backpacking.  Of course, it was (and is) illegal in Hawaii, but I think one would be remiss in not doing so today.  There was so much good advice in that book that helped me in the USMC, if nothing more than when packing my helicopter before a mission, or a car, trailer, or truck to move across the country.  “Think ounces, not pounds.”  I always think about Mr. Fletcher’s advice when I pack.

Anyway, I think I’ve got the camping stove angle covered in spades.  That is, until the fuel runs out.  Same goes for kerosene heater and lanterns (5).  My plan is to pull out our pellet stove and replace it with a free-standing wood stove.  Pellets are nice, but they must be bought, and the price is getting exorbitant, according to my pocket book.  They likely will be non-existent in a crunch. 

I connected a 12,000 Watt/50amp gasoline generator when we moved into this house nine years ago, as I have with every house in which we’ve lived for the last two decades.  I’ve got it wired through a transfer box to the circuit-breaker panel, a job that I did myself. It works, and it’s safe.  The main reasons for having this were to run the 220V[olt AC] well water pump and to run the refrigerator and our free-standing freezer during power outages.  But I’ve got it wired, anyway, to nearly every circuit in the house, except the other 220V appliances – water heater and heat pump.  It is somewhat selectable. That is to say that I can choose which circuits I want to power by engaging or disengaging the switches on the transfer box.  The problem is that it uses gasoline. So in a long-term outage it would soon become useless.  I’ve had the propane gas company come out to estimate what it would cost to get a dedicated 100 gal propane tank for the generator.  It would be about $500, but then, in addition to the 50+ gallons of gasoline, butane tanks, and white gas that I keep stored in a separate outbuilding, it would make a great explosion when hit with a tracer round.

Which brings me to the subject of security.  We live in a split-level home on about ten acres of forest.  The property is surrounded by other similar-sized properties of seemingly like-minded individuals.  I gleamed this because everyone out here shoots.  The sweet sound of gunfire can be heard at times in a full circle.  West Virginia, at least, has still got its priorities straight in this regard.  But I digress. This is a frame house with half of it below ground in front, but framed in back, which faces the forest.  The forest, itself, is a maze of downed pine trees blown over by the wind, interspersed with small saplings, vines and low brush.  Not a likely avenue of approach for anyone but the most determined.  For those who are determined, the downed trees would make excellent cover and concealment.  So I have a security problem to solve there, as well as at the front. 

I’ve started buying rolls of barbed wire and baling wire.  Unfortunately, I do not have access to dynamite, which we used to be able to buy in a hardware store in the 1960s.  We used it back then to blow stumps while clearing the land for our house.  I am thinking of buying a bunch of used railroad ties to build cover in the back; I’ve thought also of bricks and sandbags.  Problem is we’re reaching the point in all of this where the house would begin to look like a fortress, of sorts, to all but the most ignorant observers.  So there’s a line here concerning security versus “normalcy” that I must cross sooner or later.  Inasmuch as my wife is a few years older than I and is on constant medications, I’m afraid that finding a retreat (if we could even afford one) would be out of the question, as access to doctors, hospital and pharmacy are a necessity. Nevertheless I’ve got the bags packed and gear ready to throw into the pickup (Toyota 4x4 – like to have one of those older model American trucks, but I think they are getting rare, at least around here.  And what there are will likely go to the Cash for Clunkers Program….grumble, grumble. What will they think of next?).

So it looks to me as if we are here for the duration of the crisis, or sooner, if they try to take the guns from my cold, dead hands.  Speaking of, I still have to build a cache or two for guns and ammo and a few other necessities. 

And since I’ve more-or-less made that decision (here for the duration), I’ve thought of organizing the apparently gun-loving neighbors.  I’ve begun to buy walkie-talkies, if not field phones and commo wire.  I’ve got solar panels and several batteries (need to get a mega deep cell or two, however) to run the small battery chargers and the CB radio. My shortwave is up and running.

I will have to wait to talk to the neighbors, whom I rarely see, much less know.  I can just imagine the words that would come out of their mouths if I were to mention to them the notion of forming a security “company” and establishing a perimeter.  “That old retired Marine down the road is nuts!”

So that’s what I’ve got to say.  I do hope it at least stimulates some thought for those who are starting out trying to prepare, as I am.  All of this shows me that one “problem” in this “survival” business leads to several more, and they in turn lead to even more problems.  Lots to do. So I’m glad I’m retired.  I’ve got time to think about it.  If I were rich, I could do a lot more and likely in a far away place, but as it is, we do with what we have.   I have to use the lessons taught to every Marine:  Improvise, Adapt, Overcome.  

Long Live America.  Keep the Faith. - “Two Dogs”, Col. USMCR (ret.) in West Virginia

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Friday August 7 2009

Preparedness on a Very Tight Budget, by Shane M.

I see it several times a week: What gun should I get? How much ammo should I have? How big should my garden be? Should I get gold or silver? And on and on it goes, week after week. More and more people are becoming “aware,” and are seeking the advice of those of us who have “been there, done that.” There is so much great information out there to answer the plethora of those types of questions. Invariably, someone eventually asks, “how do I afford that?” There are other variations of this question as well, but it all boils down to the same thing in the end. Many of us, including myself, are not monetarily wealthy. Considering that most of the country is in debt, that means that many survivalists, especially those new to the subject, are in debt. With the sudden realizations smacking them about the head and chest, combined with the required urgency of the situation, people want to get the necessary preparations in short order, but are not sure how to do it with limited funds.

It can be done. Just like your 401(k) investments, it happens a little bit at a time. I do not know a single survivalist that just bought into the life with just one check from the checkbook. This is not a life you just buy into in a day. So rest assured that those of us who are well prepared did so over time, with trail and error, money, sweat, and bruised egos. You have an advantage that we did not have – the internet. You can learn from us, from our mistakes and our wisdom through the internet and gain valuable insight, hopefully without many monetary mistakes. Absorbing this knowledge is your first key to being able to “afford” preparations.

Beans, bullets, Band-Aids has been articulated many times and in many ways. Now, how do I afford it all? A budget and prioritizing are the answers. Did I just hear you moan? I am sorry, but you cannot do it without a budget and setting your priorities to pay down debt and acquire preparations. All other things go to the bottom of the list. I have never in my life made more than $40,000 in a year. Looking at my last 22 years of taxable income statements, it shows that my average yearly pay is just over $18,000 per year. This is not because I do not have the ability to earn much more, it is because I choose to live life and not be a slave to societal pressures to have a career. I have still managed to prepare with miniscule funds, debt, and a family by setting my priorities and keeping a strict budget.

So, how do I get started?

  1. Stop using credit cards and credit – forever!
  2. Stop frivolous spending immediately – no eating out, no movies, no cable, no manicures, no vacations, no guys’ night out, etc. Either you are serious about preparing, or you are a party-goer. Which is it?
  3. Establish an emergency fund, in cash of at least $1,000. This is not spending money. This is to cover an inevitable visit from Murphy, Sod, or Finagle.
  4. Document every dollar you spend to find out where your money is going.
  5. Create a budget that outlines your debts and expenses. This should be prioritized with Food, Water, Shelter, and Transportation at the top. These are the bills that get paid first. Other bills, debts, and expenses get laid out in order of importance. When you add up your bills and expenses, if the number is larger than your bring home paycheck, you need to get another job. If the number is smaller, this money is used for getting your preparations. If your total is equal to you take home pay, tighten you belt.
  6. Tighten you belt – go over your expenses and see where you can cut. Everyone has things they can cut. Eliminate anything that is not necessary. Shop for better deals on phone services, electricity, etc. Change the thermostat a few degrees, unplug appliances when not in use, shop at different stores, use coupons, purchase used, etc.

Now that you are started with properly managing your money, it is time to make lists for preparations. Food should be the first thing on the list, followed closely by defense (guns, ammo, and training) and medical supplies and training. Clothes, shoes, coats, etc. should also be on the list along with communications gear. There are plenty of other things to put on your lists, and much of it has been discussed on this blog. Now that you have your lists of things to get, research real costs of these items and document your findings.

What do I mean by real costs? In the business world, this is called total cost and is the actual cost of an item, shipping, storage, and upkeep of the item. You need to know all costs involved for every item on your lists. Fifty pounds of triple cleaned oats may cost you $12.50 from you local supplier, but to put it up long-term, you will need a bucket, mylar bag, and oxygen absorbers. You also need to know where you are going to store it, and any associated costs to keep it stored. Some items may require a climate-controlled environment for long-term sustainability and this cost may be separate from your home costs depending on your situation.

You can severely cut into the total cost of preparations by researching, pooling resources with other preppers, and working as a team to put up those preparations. You can get bulk discounts by purchasing case lots, pallet lots, and purchasing seconds. This goes not just for food, but also for guns, ammo, clothes, seeds, construction materials, etc. Write down the price quotes you get, the name of the business, the phone number, and with whom you spoke. After the first few calls, it will get easier and become enjoyable. If you have friends, break up the lists and put others in charge of researching a subject. A big thing to remember when researching your future purchases: businesses must sell products to stay in business, but you are not required to buy – most things are negotiable.

So, how did I do it? Using all of the above, I started by allotting $10 per weekly trip to the grocery store to get canned goods. These were put away for emergencies. Other money was saved until I had enough to purchase an item at the top of my list (i.e. a rifle), and then the process started over. Later, I learned that I needed to set a budget for my weekly grocery trip and make a list for that as well. Since I was keeping track of every dollar I spent, I noticed that my weekly shopping trip expenditures were erratic, fluctuating between $90 and $190 per week plus my $10 preps. So, I made a list for the week’s groceries and set a [weekly] budget of $125. The first few months of this were hard. I had to make concessions, purchase lesser cuts of meat, off-brands, or simply cut certain things altogether. After a year of doing it this way, we were spending less than $75 per week to feed a family of four. What do you think we do with the extra money we were spending at the grocery store? That’s right, it buys more preps every week.

I sold my full sized four-door truck with payments, which freed up $430 per month, and paid cash for an early 1990s model beater S-10 Blazer. Is it as nice as my truck was? Not even close. Does it get me where I need to go? Absolutely. What do you think I did with the extra $430 per month? Right again, I bought more preps. Every time we pay off a debt, the money we were paying towards it gets put towards another debt, until it is paid off. Then all of that money goes to the next debt and so on, until suddenly, no more debt. Every extra dollar we got, paid for a prep or went to a debt.

I also save the required money and purchase exactly what I want, not something to get me by. Always buy what you want. Never purchase something that you think you want or something inferior. I see others do this all the time. This is the best way to waste your money. I see others with slim budgets purchase a Mosin Nagant and a tin of ammo, simply because they wanted to have something, when they really wanted a M1A or an AR-15. If I want an expensive rifle, or high quality tent, I stay patient and save the required amount of money and get exactly what I want. I learned this lesson the hard way, so you shouldn’t have to.

If you were as prepared as you thought you could be, and TEOTWAWKI came to pass, you would do everything in your power to properly manage your resources and hopefully ride out the storm. You would document all of you food, guns, ammo, and supplies. You would make plans on how best to utilize what you had, disseminate those plans to your family (and friends) and make certain that those plans were followed. Well, TEOTWAWKI has not come to pass, but all of the ingredients required to survive are the same ingredients needed to prepare to survive. Document what you have in monetary means, make plans to best utilize those means, disseminate those plans to your family, and make sure everyone sticks to the plan. Before you know it, you will be well stocked and supplied.

 

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Thursday August 6 2009

Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?

The hard economic times that I--and many others--warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer.

This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it.

Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term "white trash" comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his "austere" budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children's school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate!

This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.)

It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin' Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their "Energy" drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don't be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies.

In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: "The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe."

Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression:

  • Work cheerfully and diligently. It is slackers that find themselves unemployed first.
  • Get debt free and stay debt free. Take on no new indebtedness, and pay down the debts you already have.
  • Learn to distinguish essentials from non-essentials.
  • Write a budget, and stick to it. Whittle it, as necessary, to avoid debt.
  • Sell off your useless Beanie babies and assorted knickknacks.
  • Increase your savings
  • Build up your food storage
  • Diversify your investments. Don't put all your money in one bank.
  • Check your bank or S&L's safety rating at TheStreet.com. Check your stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and insurers, while you are at it.)
  • Hedge your investments with some tangibles
  • Sell off any vacation or rental properties that don't have retreat potential
  • If you move, then it should be to a place near a secure job, and preferably to a piece of farm or ranch land that provides some self-sufficiency.
  • Develop a second stream of income.
  • Release yourself from your addictions. Pray fervently, and if need be, seek help.
  • Plant a garden.
  • Stay in shape.
  • Be willing to accept work that is lower paying or less appealing
  • Be charitable.
  • Most importantly: Get right with God. (Believe, repent of your sin, confess Jesus as your savior, and be baptized.) It is time to pray hard, folks! I believe in predestination. If you are reading this, and feel convicted to make change in your life, then you are fulfilling what God has had planned for you since "before the foundations of the Earth."

Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up.

One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative's basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, "rolled up sleeves" work.

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Tuesday August 4 2009

A Prepper Husband and a Stubborn Wife, by JRM

Part 1 - Introduction

History will repeat itself, for history has shown, that history will repeat itself. Unfortunately my wife is not interested in history. She is, however coming around, and now I pass my knowledge on to others whose "significant others" might not see the picture. Understanding the situation is the first step to doing something about it.

As a young (25 and 22 years old) couple, attached to the US Navy, (entering my sixth year of service) my worst nightmare is a TEOTWAWKI event occurring when I am 2,000 miles away. There is little to be done about this possibility but, as my Marine Corps brethren tell me, adapt and overcome. Contingencies have been planned, but before I get there let me elaborate on how I made a breakthrough with my young, and stubborn wife.

We have been married for three years, and I was blissfully unaware of the possibilities that life as we know it might change. I was in high school when my parents prepared for Y2K, but saw decent planning and stockpiling take place. My wife's parents planned as well, but they planned a holiday ski trip to Lake Tahoe [for December 31, 1999.]. That being said, when I joined the Navy and landed in Virginia I did not begin to take steps in preparing. That was my first mistake: I met my wife, I wasn't preparing, and she had no indication that a couple years down the road that I would open my eyes and want to devote so much time and resources towards preparing as best I could.

I can't pin down the exact moment when I realized that I had lost precious time and felt the urge to get ready. I think it was a steady stream of facts that I was able to put together, and the more I researched the more bleak the picture looked to me. I then began looking for a way to make my family's situation better. The first thing I realized was that it would cost money to prepare. So, I dusted off the planned budget, took out a red pen and started making cuts and shifting priorities around. After I felt satisfied, I sat my wife down and proposed the new budget. Needless to say, my "radical" new budget was shot down.

Part 2 - The Wrong Way

I was not entirely discouraged, but a little disappointed that my wife didn't just take my word that we needed to spend money and time on preparing. I suppose that an older (read: "wiser") man would have known to ease his wife into a new lifestyle.

I then made my second big mistake. Feeling that I "knew better" and was doing it for "her own good" I began to run a "disinformation campaign" on my wife. (Note: I don't endorse this method, as in my own experience it will fail in the end!) With spring starting, I began a dialogue with my wife about camping. It seemed logical to me, we devote money and time preparing for a few camping trips, I cross some of my items off the "need for preparation" list and she is none the wiser. It worked. We both had bug out bags, I mean "hiking packs", some cooking gear, some camping knives, flashlights, a good tent, sleeping bags, first aid kits, and the like. I was even allowed to make most of the purchases for her (thus ensuring that we didn't end up with a bright red tent, a hot pink pack and such.) We went camping, it was great, learned a few things about her ability in the wilderness (and my own) and several more things were added to my "preparation list" that I had never though of.

I felt great, stage one of my disinformation campaign was a success, and I felt ready to move on the next stage. The garden. My wife loves her flower garden. We started with a weed-infested back yard, and with a lot of hard work (on my part) and a vision (wife's department) we ended up with a nice yard, with a lot of flowers and ornamental trees. I don't intend on eating trees and flowers, so I just brought up the subject of a home vegetable garden. She liked the idea, but it was something that we really knew nothing about. We did some research on the internet, and she was immediately overwhelmed by the information and lost motivation. (I mean, c'mon we live within walking distance to the commissary.)

I was greatly helped by a new girlfriend she had made. Her friend opened her eyes to organic foods and sold her on the benefits of buying organic. I just had to wait for the right time, because I knew that the organic food store was much more expensive than the commissary. I would use my wife's own argument against her, that organic foods cost too much, but I would compromise and "allow the expense" of growing our own organic garden, which would offset the cost of buying organic meats and milk. Stage two complete.

I continued with my disinformation campaign for months, and was able to cross a decent amount of things off my "preparation list". But it was this very list that was my undoing. While cleaning she came across my list, and saw that very clearly, I had checked many things off. Then the light bulb clicked on and the gig was up. Understandably she was hurt. For months I had been less than honest about my intentions, and she viewed it as selfish and childish. Which it was. I won't go into detail about how terrible that night was when I got home, but it's safe to say that my plans for being ready were placed on hold.

Part 3 - The Right Way

As a uniformed service member I feel it necessary to keep my political beliefs private. Because of this, my wife became my outlet for venting frustration with policies I don't agree with. At first my wife was uninterested in the happenings in D.C., because she felt that it would have little impact on her way of life. This was a blessing in disguise that brought my wife to a point in her life where she wanted answers.

My wife and I were invited to a friend's house for dinner and drinks. Little to my knowledge, my friend's wife is very passionate about politics. As drinks were made, discussion ensued, and before long politics was being discussed. My friend, a Marine, is a conservative through and through. He has no problems voicing his opinions on any number of topics and policies. His wife is as liberal a person as I have ever met. The debate was quite invigorating. My poor wife, knowing only the politics that I preach to her, decided to throw her two cents in, but could barely regurgitate the things I had said previously to her, let alone defend her "position" when pointed questions were asked.

The next day I came home to my wife watching the news, and reading headlines on her laptop. She would never get into another political debate without knowing what she was talking about. I was impressed, and engaged her in many long conversations. I showed her articles and stories, and allowed her time to come to her own conclusions, the same way I came to my conclusions. But in the end it was Glenn Beck's show that prompted a question from her, "Is it possible that our economy could really collapse?"

Now I know, at 25 that I am in no position to give history lessons, but I did my best and pointed mostly towards the 1930s as an example. I talked at length about the increased danger we live in now, as modern day America is not what it was in 1930. The danger is not in the market, but in the fragility of our now intertwined systems. We talked for quite a while, and in the end talked how to protect ourselves. And finally talking about how to prepare for the worst, should it come.

Part 4 - The Plan

Again, we pulled out the family budget, and re-prioritized. In the end we were able to devote $200 a month for preparations. That was three months ago.

Simple. That was my number one priority, as it pertains to a plan. Mostly, because I knew that there is a decent chance that I could be across the world when/if an event happened.

My first purchases were paper, a few three-ring binders, and some shelving. I started by making lists of everything. Then I developed a set of SOPs, checklists and a commo plan. These are very much still in a beginning stage, but they get better every week. These binders serve three purposes. One, they allow me to think things though, and shoot holes in my plans. Two, give my wife an easy set of instructions to follow should I be deployed. Three, give me piece of mind when I am away.

Eventually, these binders will evolve into an all encompassing SOP. Set up similarly to a "choose your own adventure" book. Meaning that, you evaluate your current situation then flip to that section for a course of action. (For example, a Hurricane is rolling in, and it's going to require an evacuation. Turn to page 16 for instructions. Or it is a G.O.O.D. situation and you have an hour to get loaded up and out of town, turn to page 74.) In conjunction with this, the shelving units in the garage are organized with the binder. Meaning, that for a hurricane, all items on shelves one and two have priority in the truck.

Most of the things we have done thus far are extremely cheap. Making plans for instance, are free. Aside from the cost of the 3 ring binder, paper and ink, planning for an escape was free. We live in a very densely populated area, and our tentative plan is to bug out early to a planned waypoint to reassess the situation. I do not want to risk waiting and "fighting" my way out of town, so we may have a few "unplanned camping trips" that turn out to be false alarms, but I'll chalk it up to practice. As funds are available, I hope to store a cache of goods at this location to enable us to travel further west without needing assistance or gas stations. This first waypoint is just inside the range my truck can go on a half a tank of gas, with three routes already planned if needed.

I feel that at this stage we would be ahead of the hordes of people trying to evacuate the east coast. From this point we should be able to "camp", assess the situation via radio, and decide on the next course of action. If it's a false alarm, we pack our things in the morning and head home. If not we decide which preplanned route would be safest to get to our second waypoint. (note I have planned for a few waypoints for my second leg. Basically, if you drew a vertical line every 250-300 miles across the US there would be a few waypoints close to that line.) This will allow for flexibility in planning as we continue to assess the situation. If we must go north to get out west we will have a plan, if we can still use the interstate there will be a plan, of we need to go south there is a plan. All we have to do is chose at each leg. The hardest part of planning was having contingencies for natural barriers, such as the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi river.

Of course we have a destination in mind, and that is linking up with some like minded family members, who will hopefully be waiting for us when we arrive at grandpa's house out in the middle of nowhere.

90% of our focus has been on bugging out, but we plan to start shifting some focus on maintaining the homestead. This would likely be limited to a high inflation scenario, where food storage would offset costs and impact us less, as well as securing the house for the rise in crime. However, it would be foolish in our situation to stay in our city for most foreseeable situations.

The other cheap way we have begun to prepare is mentally. This was difficult for my wife. I started by giving her my copy of "Patriots" and then a copy of "The Road". It allowed her to see a significant contrast in what could happen, as well as the difference between preparing or not preparing.

I will end with this. We are only three months into actively preparing ourselves. And in a short essay it is impossible to discuss all the things we have tried. But there are some fundamental things that have worked for us.

- You have to be a team. I have gotten much further working as a team than trying to "sneak around" and prepare.

- You have to prepare spiritually. I am not a fan of church, as every time I go I feel like I am being sold something. My wife and I go straight to the source for our spiritual guidance. Prayer and studying the Bible works for us. But you need to find what works for you.

- You have to stay motivated. Keep yourself informed, and do something every single day that makes you a little more prepared. 365 little things to prepare will get me much further than saving up and buying a bunch of gear at the end of the year.

- You have to look for support. Too many of my peers (20-30 years old) are happy being blissfully unaware. But many are opening there eyes every day, and just need a friend to help them. This is where my plan falls flat, for now. Establishing a network of people to count on is very high on my priorities, but with the ever evolving network of friends getting rotated to new duty stations every couple of years this has been hard.

- You have to have a plan, and expect it to fail. I've been on many military missions, and Murphy has been there every single time. But it is easier to adjust a plan or fall back on a contingency than it is to shoot from the hip.

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Monday August 3 2009

A Vault Full of Hedges: Tangibles, Tangibles, Tangibles!

My gun vault down in Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) is now full. It is a large vault (a Zanotti ZA-III modular six-footer) but it isn't big enough. For more than 30 years, I've been accumulating barterable tangibles: guns, full capacity magazines, precious metals, optics, and knives. Each of these represents a fairly compact and liquid asset. They all have practical uses, although the coins and ingots are more of a medium of exchange rather than something intrinsically useful in and of themselves. (Oh, I suppose the silver could be melted down, cast into bullets, and put to good use if the ranch is overrun by lycanthropes. What if silver someday mysteriously becomes nearly worthless? If cast into buckshot, if propelled by just a wrist rocket slingshot, as Mr. Spock once said, "they would make formidable projectiles" to slay garden pests.)

I rest well at night, knowing that the vast majority of my net worth is either in the form of productive land, or useful tools. The US Dollar could get devalued or wiped out by inflation, and yet that would only hit about 3% of my net worth. This is because I convert my greenbacks into tangibles at the first opportunity, and only keep modest bank balance to pay my monthly bills.

I'll admit that I may have gone a bit overboard. Do I really need a half dozen spare Swiss Army Knives (of various models), or four spare Cold Steel Knife Voyagers? Probably not, but there they sit, new, stacked up in their factory boxes. But I don't expect their resale value to go down anytime soon. Do I truly need a stack of HK93 magazines, or Glock 17 magazines, or M14 magazines, when I don't even own any of those guns? Probably not, but they sure do make great barter items. And why do I have so many stainless Colt M1911 .45 semi-auto handguns? After all, I can only hold two at a time. But perhaps a day will come when my descendants can no longer attend a gun show and walk home with what ever they please, sans papier. And again, I don't expect them to go down in value.

I suppose that I'll soon have to buy a second vault, and bolt it down, right next to the existing one. Someday in the future, after I've joined the Choir Invisible, my children or grandchildren will have a quite a day, sorting though the contents of my vaults. And something tells me that my heirs won't be disappointed, or consider it "junk" that they are dividing up.

None of the foregoing is meant to brag. Rather, I hope that you will emulate my approach at investing diversification to prepare for the tumultuous decade ahead. Think: Tangibles, Tangibles, Tangibles!

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Tuesday July 28 2009

Gear Up -- Appropriate and Redundant Technologies for Prepared Families

I frequently stress the importance of well-balanced preparedness in my writings. All too often, I've seen people that go to extremes, to the point that these extremes actually detract from the ability to survive a disaster situation. These range from the "all the gear that I'll need to survive is in my backpack" mentality to the "a truckload of this or that" fixation. But genuine preparedness lies in comprehensive planning, strict budgeting, and moderation. Blowing your entire preparedness budget on just one category of gear is detrimental to your overall preparedness.

Another common mistake that I see among my consulting clients is an over-emphasis on either very old technologies or on the "latest and greatest" technologies. In the real world, preparedness necessitates having a bit of both. At the Rawles Ranch we have both 19th century technology (like hand-powered tools) and a few of the latest technologies like passive IR intrusion detection (Dakota Alerts), photovoltaics, and electronic night vision. My approach is to pick and choose the most appropriate technologies that I can maintain by myself, but to always have backups in the form of less exotic or earlier, albeit less-efficient technologies. For example, my main shortwave receiver is a Sony ICF-SW7600GR. But in the event of EMP, I also a have a pair of very inexpensive Kaito shortwaves and a trusty old Zenith Trans-Oceanic radio that uses vacuum tubes. Like my other spare electronics, these are all stored in a grounded galvanized steel can when not in use.

Here is my approach to preparedness gear, in a nutshell

  • Redundancy, squared. I jokingly call my basement Jim's Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR)
  • Buy durable gear. Think of it as investing for your children and grandchildren. And keep in mind that there'll be no more "quick trips to the hardware store" after TSHTF.
  • Vigilantly watch Craigslist, Freecycle, classified ads, and eBay for gear at bargain prices.
  • Strive for balanced preparedness that "covers all bases"--all scenarios.
  • Flexibility and Adaptability (Examples: shop to match a 12 VDC standard for most small electronics, truly multi-purpose equipment, multi-ball hitches, NATO slave cable connectors for 24 VDC vehicles, Anderson Power Pole connectors for small electronics--again, 12 VDC)
  • Retain the ability to revert to older, more labor-intensive technology.
  • Fuel flexibility (For example: Flex fuel vehicles (FFVs), Tri-fuel generators, and biodiesel compatible vehicles)
  • Purchase high-quality used (but not abused) gear, preferably when bargains can be found
  • If in doubt, then buy mil-spec.
  • If in doubt, then buy the larger size and the heavier thickness.
  • If in doubt, then buy two. (Our motto: "Two is one and one is none.")
  • Buy systematically, and only as your budget allows. (Avoid debt!)
  • Invest your sweat equity. Not only will you save money, but you also will learn more valuable skills.
  • Train with what you have, and learn from the experts. Tools without training are almost useless.
  • Learn to maintain and repair your gear. (Always buy spare parts and full service manuals!)
  • Buy guns in common calibers
  • Buy with long service life in mind (such as low self-discharge NiMH rechargeable batteries.)
  • Store extra for charity and barter
  • Grow your own and buy the tooling to make your own--don't just store things.
  • Rust is the enemy, and lubrication and spot painting are your allies.
  • Avoid being an "early adopter" of new technology--or you'll pay more and get lower reliability.
  • Select all of your gear with your local climate conditions in mind.
  • Recognize that there are no "style" points in survival. Don't worry about appearances--concentrate on practicality and durability.
  • As my old friend "Doug Carlton" is fond of saying: "Just cut to size, file to fit,, and paint to match."
  • Don't skimp on tools. Buy quality tools (such as Snap-on and Craftsman brands), but buy them used, to save money.
  • Skills beat gadgets and practicality beats style.
  • Use group standardization for weapons and electronics. Strive for commonality of magazines, accessories and spare parts
  • Gear up to raise livestock. It is an investment that breeds.
  • Build your fences bull strong and sheep tight.
  • Tools without the appropriate safety gear (like safety goggles, helmets, and chainsaw chaps) are just accidents waiting for a place to happen.
  • Whenever you have the option, buy things in flat, earth tone colors
  • Plan ahead for things breaking or wearing out.
  • Always have a Plan B and a Plan C

If you are serious about preparedness, then I recommend that you take a similar approach.

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Wednesday July 22 2009

Often-Overlooked Readiness: Preparing for Joy, by Carla

I am sitting here and it is raining, and raining and raining and... Four inches so far, nobody can water like God can! After our last rain, everything in the garden had a tremendous burst of energy. The dreary, raining day for some folks though, is especially depressing. I enjoy those occasional days, when I feel like I can actually sit down at the computer without feeling guilty because there is so much to do outside that I really shouldn't be here.

It got me to thinking again about “what if?” How can we defeat those occasional bouts of dreariness, especially if and when TEOTWAWKI comes along? Making sure every ones attitudes stay uplifted might be one of those things that make living in a very, very hard time a little more bearable.

You’ve always heard the saying, “if momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.” Well, momma, start with yourself first. Make sure your priorities are straight, your head, your body (I’m especially in need of that), your spiritual life, and your relationships are in great shape. Remember, you and your family are a team. It is going to be you and them against the world. Ya’ll will possibly be the only ones you engage with for a while. Your relationships to each other is of vital importance. Pick your battles, which is something I have to be very conscious of. Make sure everyone in the family knows how vital their contribution is. Even if it is just the little ones trained well enough to know how to mind and do their chores. It will save a lot of added frustration especially if things are in really bad shape.

Make sure you have something that is special to you stored back--I know this may sound irrelevant and maybe even a little selfish, but just a small bottle of perfume, or a little lipstick, after you come in from a long, hot, sweaty day in the garden, to clean up and smell and look pretty, will give you (and him) a nice, uplifting feeling. You are the heart of the home, make it a place that gives your family a feeling of warmth and welcome when they are there. Grow a few hardy flowers that like hot weather and do well without much rain. We never know from year to year how much rain we will get. Cut them and put them on the table. Save your dish water to pour on them if the weather is dry. It will lift everyone's spirits to come to the table with a nice tablecloth and flowers. Your conversation makes a difference, too. Talk about memories, funny stories, you might even start writing them down so you won’t forget them when they happen. You will be the one who makes a vital difference in attitudes, and this is true even when things are normal. Make plans for birthdays or other special days. Birthday candles do not take up much space and cost very little , they are a very important part of birthdays, especially the little [single digit] ones. Folks like me have to have permission from the Fire Department! You know what is important to your family as far as holidays and families times. Prepare for those special times.

What about things to do [at quiet times]? My husband loves puzzles. I will have some puzzle books put back. My daughter is like me: she loves art. If you have a child who loves to draw, make sure you have some art supplies on hand. A reader? G.A. Henty is one great author, especially for your boys. Even my daughter loved his books, lots of history in great mysteries. Get online and find some of the older books or look at used bookstores, thrift shops, or your local library. They get rid of older books every once in a while, so be on the look out for those old classics. Don’t do the “fast food” type of books that you can read in 15 minutes. Give them something that takes a while and better yet, have daddy read to the family at night. Just a few chapters, discuss it and enjoy a peaceful evening.

Games are a great family time and some of them are just for fun, some help learning skills. Whatever your family enjoys and make sure you have a few for all ages. You need those old fashioned ones, because the computer may not be working. We have made our own games. We’ve dug some small holes in the ground and found some old washers and used them similarly to horseshoes. Since we home schooled, geography was taught by buying plastic posters of the continents. Each person would have a different place and we would ask about rivers, mountain ranges, countries, anything that was on the map could be formed into a question. Charades, an old game is great if you have visitors. Music is wonderful. Maybe you have a musician in your family. Sing together. It makes a light-hearted atmosphere and gets everyone away from all the talk about news and what is going on. There are web sites on line that can give you many more ideas, and now would be the time to prepare.

If you have folks who like to sew, knit, crochet, woodwork make sure they have a few items that could give them some time to be creative. All work and no play makes a really bad attitude. It is a good way to make gifts as holidays and birthdays come along. Make your own cards and stick one on a bed or on the mirror to tell your family how much you appreciate their hard work and their good attitude. A little praise goes a long way.

Preparing for fun and relaxation is as important as preparing for physical needs. Fear and bitterness are some of the worse life threatening things that will bring the whole household down. Having a lot of time on your hands, gives time to think about what I don’t have, or what I’m missing. Just adding some of the fun items will keep your family occupied in good, clean, happy, useful business.

Don’t forget rest~satisfying rest. When you are overworked, tired, hungry and worried your responses to folks can be well, not nice. That can lead to arguments and a lack of teamwork. Making sure everyone gets a restoring night's sleep will help get them ready for another day of taking care of business. Don’t forget to say your prayers. God has got you through another day.

Your relationship with God, knowing that you belong to Him and that your family does, is the first thing you need to have total faith in. Know that although you have prepared to the best of your abilities, that nothing happens to us that does not pass through God’s “hands” first. You must know that what He allows in our lives, He has either caused, or will use for our good and His Glory.

These are just a few ideas. There is so much information on the web now, that finding other ideas are only a mouse click away. Make a notebook and keep ideas in it. If you do not have the time right now to get things together, with the notebook you won’t forget about them. This might be good for the kids to do.

Depression is a killer, of the spirit and sometimes of lives. Just a little joy in hard times makes things go so much easier. When you can laugh during adversity, it might make a difference in getting your life back to normal. “A merry heart doeth good, like a medicine.” So remember while you’re storing up the beans, rice, tools and ammo, don’t forget to store up some joy. - Carla

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Sunday July 19 2009

Two Letters Re: Savings and Self-Sufficiency with Homemade Laundry Detergent

Hello Mr. Rawles,
I love the Blog! Here is a tip for those readers who would like to save money and their backs by following Carla's soap recipe. Since I have a cat, I have been using the bargain basement cat litter that come in rectangular HDPE buckets. Rather than throw them out, why not save money by not buying 5 gallon buckets? Of course, one needs a cat owner who uses this product, but with the mess this economy is in, frugal relatives, friends and neighbors may have some. One could make up a smaller batch of her detergent, it would be easier to move around the laundry room, ( thus saving wear-and-tear on the back), they have re-sealable lids and carrying handles, and they are square! These are not safe for food storage, but I have used them for tool carrying, ammo storage (since the Federal government seems to be destroying surplus ammo cans), and other uses. And since square containers pack into trunks and the rear of Bug-Out Vehicles (BOVs) better than round containers, thus freeing up space, they may allow you to carry that little bit of extra gear when you need to Get Out of Dodge G.O.O.D. They also stack Vertically! This may sound like a trivial thing, but as a former U.S. Navy Submariner who served aboard two different Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) subs, I know the importance of using every square inch of space. And a penny saved is a silver dime bought! Hope this sparks other ideas for these containers among the readers. God's blessings on you and your House. - Bubblehead Les

 

Dear JWR:
I am a new reader to survival blog and glean new info daily. We are making preparations slowly to Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.), ASAP! Fortunately we do not have jobs to hold us down (husband is self employed and trying to start a web business) and I homeschool and raise our six kids. Unfortunately, the income is not steady and with 6 kids, we do not have as much money as we would like. But with God leading, anything is possible.

The reason for this letter is to add something to the very interesting article about the homemade laundry soap. I have been making our own soap for months now. But there is a way to make it in powder form if you prefer powder detergent:

1 bar Fels Naptha (or 2 bars of Ivory)
1 C Washing soda
1 C Borax

Grate the soap finely. You don't want big chunks. I use a hand grater, but I suppose you could use a food processor [that is designated for only non-food purposes]. This part takes a long time and is labor intensive.
Then add a cup each of the washing soda and borax. Mix well. I put it into a large plastic freezer bag for compact storage. Add 1 Tablespoon to each load, and get nice clean laundry.

A few things to be aware of: your soap won't suds up at all. That does not mean you have to add more soap. And clean clothes smell like nothing. You don't need added scent for clean clothes like most commercial laundry soaps. Also, if you want a softener, then add about a quarter cup of vinegar to the rinse. Your clothes won't smell like vinegar, but they will be nice and soft. You won't need a dryer sheet, either.

One last thing: Fels Naptha is a laundry bar. Meaning you can just rub the soap on a stain and watch it come out in the wash. I have tried it, and it does work. So buy an extra bar for stains instead of expensive pre-treaters like Oxy Clean. One bar will last a long time! - Anita

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Saturday July 18 2009

Savings and Self-Sufficiency with Homemade Laundry Detergent, by Carla

What would make someone want to make their own laundry detergent? It is so convenient to go to the store and get a ready made, nicely package, conveniently mixed, nice smelling, make your clothes fresher and your life better if you use me, laundry detergent. My husband and I have always had a preparedness mentality-we live 10 miles from a grocery store and 20 miles from a Wal-Mart. You don't just run up the street to buy a roll of toilet paper. We prepared for Y2K and have always thought "what if." We don't worry, for we know God is in control and is truly the provider, but feel he leaves it up to us to do the leg work.

[Some deleted, for brevity]

Not only am I preparing for my family, but I have neighbors that will ultimately need some help, extended family members that are not in the position financially to be able to stock up and hopefully enough to barter if necessary. So as I buy, it is on my mind "How far will this go to feed possibly 10-to-15 people?" Soup ingredients, meat extenders, et cetera are some of the things that will help to feed a lot on a little. Not wasting the money we have and are trying to save up, making sure I spend wisely for the money is of utmost importance.

I started looking for ways to "substitute" my own homemade items for those that we normally buy. Homemade mixes for Bisquick, brownies, rice mixes, etc., anything that saves money is on my lists. One of the most expensive-even though I would lean to the least expensive side-was laundry detergent. It is an item where you are literally throwing your money down the drain. I began to look on the web for ways to make my own, and lo and behold I came across a lot of formulas. I started making my own and have passed the recipe to many friends. They can't thank me enough! It is as good and in my humble opinion, better than the most expensive store-bought laundry detergent. When you figure the costs savings, it is outstanding! Even if you are not "into" preparedness, it is just a great way to save money in these harder times. I find my ingredients at the local Kroger's [grocery] store and one of the items can be bought at Wal-Mart, but for the few cents savings, unless I am going there for many more items, the time factor and extra mileage, it is just not worth it. Trying to buy laundry detergent in bulk, the storage problem and costs factor, is really diminished by making your own. I have tweaked the use part of this recipe to suit me, but will give you the total information and then let each decide on their own.

Homemade Laundry Detergent -- Makes Enough for About 180 Loads

1 Bar - Fels Naptha soap ($1.29 for a 5-1/2 ounce bar)
1 cup - Washing soda $3.99 55 ounce box (do not confuse this with baking soda)
1/2 cup - Borax ($3.49 for a 76 ounce box on sale price, regular price is $3.99) This is the old 20 Mule Team brand, and this can be found at Wal-Mart.)
1 - 5 gal. HDPE plastic utility bucket with lid. These are often available free from bakeries, or approximately $4-tio $5 at [Sam's Club or] Wal-Mart, or your local paint store)

Grate the Fels Naptha soap into small pieces. You can chop it with a knife, cheese grater, or food processor. Heat four quarts of water in a large, heavy saucepan on top of stove and add soap, stirring constantly till melted. This will take a while depending on the size of your grated pieces. Meanwhile, fill the five gallon bucket half full with warm water. Add the 1 cup of washing soda and the 1/2 cup of Borax and stir well. When soap is melted pour into bucket, then continue to fill bucket with warm water until full. Stir well and let sit overnight until cool. This "concentrate" will thicken as it sits. Stir before using. Now, I use this concentrate straight out of the bucket and use 1/3 cup per large load. The original instructions said to save an old laundry detergent container, fill half full with concentrate then add water to top. Shake and use 5/8ths cup per large load. Repeat till your concentrate is gone. This will give you 10 gallons of laundry detergent. That just seemed more trouble than necessary. So I use the concentrate as-is. No need to have to make room for another container. You will have enough leftover soda and Borax to make approximately five more buckets of detergent. You will have to buy more soap. The costs for one 5-gallon bucket (not including the bucket) is approximately $2.40. If you compared that to the expensive brand of concentrate @ $20.00 per container, just think of the savings and that is if your store bought container makes 180 loads! Since I don't buy the twenty dollar Tide brand, I'm not sure if that is for 180 loads, so the savings could be a lot more. $14.40 for a total of six 5-gallon buckets compared to $120 for six containers of Tide 2X concentrate. In a small space, enough to hold 1 box of Borax, 1 box of washing soda and 6 bars of Fels Naptha you can have better cleaning power than six containers of store bought laundry detergent. This will also save more than $100!

I have a niece that uses Ivory bar soap, which is cheaper than the Fels Naptha and is totally pleased with her product. The Borax and washing soda have many other household uses also, as the detergent would not. Making my own has gotten me hooked on doing many other things for myself. Why pay someone to do the mixing? It would be nice to put the savings into a jar, but there are too many other things that we need to get ready for when TEOTWAWKI comes along. It is good to look at my pantry that God has provided and know that my family will not go hungry. We can stay clean, one of the most important factors in hard times, thanks to many of the good articles that you have on the blog.

I just read today about using a 5 gallon bucket and making a washing "machine." We have many things that we still need, but are working on acquiring and every time there is a new entry marked off the list, it gives us a sense of security knowing that is one thing we won't have to worry about. We have encouraged others that we know are capable to do likewise. Not necessarily because they believe [in disaster preparedness] as we do, but to just be good stewards of what the Lord has given us. Whether it is an ice storm, which we have made it through several times comfortably, or tornado damage and electricity out for 4-to-5 days, we can survive easily. I'm thankful for all you folks who are teaching me what to do and how to do it. Saving money in small ways makes it easier to acquire more of the needful things. - Carla

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Saturday July 11 2009

Five Letters Re: How to Build a Deeper Supply of Prescription Medications

Dear Mr. Rawles,

Pat C.'s recent post regarding the acquisition of prescription drugs in quantity includes many good thoughts. As a pharmacist of more years than I like to admit, I feel compelled to add to a few of Pat's points.

Pat mentions FDA restrictions on quantities of several types of medications, including some "powerful antibiotics, pain drugs, and highly abused drugs". I'm unaware of FDA restrictions on dispense quantities of any drugs, except regarding a very small number of drugs with unusually high-risk of adverse reactions. These few drugs would rarely come into play in stocking for calamities. The point that I believe Pat is driving at involves the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) restrictions on "Controlled Substances", which, as a matter of definition include drugs with addictive potential, such as the opiate analgesics (pain relievers), many anti-anxiety agents (Valium, Xanax, etc.), and the amphetamines and related substances used for treatment of ADHD. The Federal list of these agents can be found at the DEA web site, for those who have time on their hands and are not easily bored. Many states have added a few agents to their very own 10th Amendment (my attempt at humor) replication of the Federal list, so check with your local pharmacist about specifics. You don't want to come off looking like a drug seeker! The methods suggested by Pat will attract a lot of attention if you innocently try to apply them to, say.... Tylenol #3 (acetaminophen with codeine - a Controlled Substance under Federal regs).

Also, Pat's statement, "some generics don't work as well as branded drugs" may breed confusion. Though there will be endless opinion-driven debates over this topic, the science, the FDA, and the overwhelming medical opinion at this point is that generic drugs rated as "therapeutically equivalent" to the innovator (brand name) product, can be used interchangeably without harm. Again, if you want specifics, you can Google (or, as I prefer, Scroogle) "FDA Orange Book", where you will find all of the products that are "AB rated", and thus approved (at least by the FDA) for interchange. Or, again, ask your pharmacist. Practically all commonly-available generic products are now listed as equivalent.

Okay...so I'm biased (I'm a pharmacist), but you may come off better asking your pharmacist about which tablets you can cut, than to ask your doctor. I think that I can safely say (without offending my friends that are medical doctors) that we pharmacists have a lot more time to study such things than most doctors!

Just my 2 cents worth! As always, thanks for all you do to help us live fuller live! - SH in GA

 

Dear Mr. Rawles:
Regarding yesterday's article "How to Build a Deeper Supply of Prescription Medications", I would like to suggest an alternative source for low cost prescriptions. When I was without medical insurance, I purchased prescription medications from AllDayChemist.com. This company is located in India. My experience was very good. My prescription cost $12/pill in the US, and $4/pill from India. The quality was fine, the service was great. They charged a flat fee of $25 to ship the package by air. Once I was comfortable with the quality and service, I started ordering larger quantities to amortize the shipping cost.

Best Regards, "+P+"

 

Hi Jim,

Just a note on how I got around this. I take a medication for GERD (a symptom of which is painful heartburn). I take one pill a day and my medical insurance will cover 100 pills at a time, and won't let me get any refills before the 100 days is almost up. Around here, all pharmacy computers are linked to insurance companies, so there's no way anyone could do what Pat C suggests in her article, unless it was ordinary OTC drugs. Anyway, I only pay $2 for prescription drugs, and a lot more otherwise, so I was heavily motivated to figure something out. So what I did was I told my doctor that 1 pill/day isn't always enough, depending on what I'm eating, and asked if she could raise it to two pills per day? (Sometimes this is true anyway). She did, and now every time I go I get twice as many pills. As long as I remember to go get refills every 100 days, I'll be able to build up a nice supply. This doesn't work for a lot of drugs, as dosage is critical in some things, but it worked in this case. GERD is one of those things where you just keep upping the dosage until it goes away (to a point, and I'm well below that point).

BTW, I cautiously asked my doctor about prescriptions for other types of medications, such as antibiotics, just to have on hand in a medical kit. In a word, she said "no". - RL in Ontario

 

James,
I can tell you as a retail pharmacist for a chain store that we do have linked data bases from state to state, but it is only within the chain itself.
A couple of thing you might want to considered when getting your physician to write that six month prescription is to have him write for a total quantity of ______# of tablets (fill in the blank with the total number of tablets you will need for that six months of medication). This will avoid problems with pharmacists who are limited by state law to dispensing only what the doctor writes for. In other words if your Dr, writes for 30 tablets they can only fill for that 30.

As far as tablet splitting, some good points were brought up. I'd just like to make sure every one understands that if a tablet is not scored do not try to split it. Pharmaceutical sales people have told me that manufacturers do not guarantee an "even mix" in unscored tablets.

Also don't forget to take advantage of any special transfer offers (such as $25.00 gift cards) that are being offered for transferring prescriptions between companies and the $4 prescriptions being offered by Wal-Mart, Krogers and Rite Aid. Many companies will also match these prices if you ask. (But you must ask.) - D. S. in Georgia

 

Mr. Rawles;
Many insurance companies allow you to purchase a 90-Day supply of prescriptions by mail at a cost that is normally much less then three individual 1-Month prescriptions. We have been participating in this program for years and have saved several thousands of dollars. - CaBuckeye

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Friday July 10 2009

How to Build a Deeper Supply of Prescription Medications, by Pat C.

Most well-prepared individuals with chronic health conditions want to keep a deep supply of medications on hand, in the event of disaster that would disrupt normal chains of supply. Medical insurance plans typically have a 30-day limit on the amount of medication that can be obtained at one time. There are various reasons for these limitations - medical complications, FDA regulations, and cost-containment by your insurance company. However, there are ways to get around these limits and build a deeper stock of meds as part of your survival
planning.

Multiple Scripts

Ask your physician to write several prescriptions, each of which authorizing six refills for each drug you need. You might have to explain why you need such a large supply so be ready with a non-political story - your rural location, concerns about getting snowed in, bridge or road washing out, extensive travel outside the US, etc. Then, go to different pharmacies to fill each script. Do not go to different locations of the same chain because the chain likely has a central computer that will flag multiple purchases of the same medication in a short period of time. Tell the pharmacist at each drug store that you want the whole batch filled at one time. You'll probably have to pay out of pocket for the drugs but you'll end up with a good supply of meds that you can start to rotate to keep your stock within the expiration dates. If you belong to a health plan and the pharmacy is a contracted provider of your plan, then you should get the discounted price for your order even though the plan won't cover more than a 30-day supply. Ask the pharmacist about that.

Multiple scripts that authorize several months of refills will work for most drugs but the FDA has strict dispensing controls on certain meds such as powerful antibiotics, pain drugs, and highly abused drugs like Vicodin,Xanax, and Adderall. It is unlikely that your doc will write a script beyond the FDA-approved limits - it's illegal. He'd lose his license to practice and could even go to jail. So don't push it - if he says something about FDA limits, respect the situation. Even if you did get such a script it's unlikely that you could find a pharmacy to fill it - it's illegal for them to do so.

Generics Versus Branded Drugs

To keep your costs down, ask your physician for a generic version of each med as opposed to a branded drug. Branded meds are protected by Federal patents which is why they are so expensive - no other pharmaceutical company can market a branded drug until the original patent expires. (It was the Reagan administration that extended drug patents.) Branded meds typically have cute names like Allegra, Celebrex, Lipitor, and Valium. Generic drugs are copies of branded drugs that are no longer under patent and usually have a chemical name such as Ampicillin or Hydrochlorothiazide. Wal-Mart now offers generics for $4 for a 30-day supply; I recently heard of a major drug chain that will fill a 90-day supply for $10. At these low prices, it's cheap enough to bypass your insurance company and pay out-of-pocket, which eliminates one level of control.

Some generics don't work as well as branded drugs and many meds are only available in branded form (the patent hasn't expired yet.) so you may have to stick with branded drugs even though they are more expensive. However, beware of "new and improved" branded drugs. Often, that means that the original patent has expired and the drug is now available as an inexpensive generic. Not wanting to lose its lucrative monopoly on the medication, the pharma company makes a slight change in the original formula and then files for a new patent. Several major branded drugs such as Lipitor will soon be off patent so do your research and ask your pharmacist.

Pill Splitting

Many drugs are available in different dosages, many of which come in tablet form that can be split in half. If you take a 20mg dose of a certain medication and a 40 mg pill is available, ask your physician if the pill can be split. [by cutting it in half at a grooved line--properly called a "score".] If so, then have the doc prescribe the 40mg dose which can be split in half, doubling your supply. Combined with the multiple script strategy outlined above, you'll have a nice stock of meds, each of which is double your actual dose. This works for both generic and branded meds but is of particular use if you need expensive branded drugs that you have to pay for yourself.

There are two important cautions about splitting your meds:

1) You must ask your physician about this since not all pills can be split. For example, some pills have time release coatings; if split, the dose is released into your body too quickly which could be dangerous or even result in death. Also, splitting doesn't work with capsules. Ask your doctor before splitting pills.

2) Do not split pills until just before you need them. Keep them sealed in their original containers or packets and store in a dark, cool place. Keep them from freezing. Pull only enough pills from your stock for the next 30 days or so. Split one pill at a time, as needed.

Canadian Pharmacies

You can also order meds through Canadian pharmacies which offer lower prices than US outlets due to strict governmental price controls up there. I am unsure how large a supply they will fill for each order but I suspect that you could obtain several months at one time. However, you have to make sure that you are ordering directly from a Canadian pharmacy. There are many Internet sites that claim to be Canadian pharmacies but it's impossible to know for sure whether you're working with a legit outlet or a crook in Nigeria or the Ukraine. Do not respond to e-mails about cheap drugs - most of those are fronts for identity theft rings - they want your credit card number. Others will send you meds beyond their expiration date or even fake pills that are perfect reproductions. Beware of scams, especially with anything you'll be putting in your body. If you are anywhere near the Canadian border, make the trip in person once or twice a year so you can personally visit the pharmacy and talk to the staff.

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Thursday July 9 2009

Survey Results: Your Favorite Books on Preparedness, Self-Sufficiency, and Practical Skills

In descending order of frequency, the 78 readers that responded to my latest survey recommended the following non-fiction books on preparedness, self-sufficiency, and practical skills:

The Encyclopedia of Country Living by Carla Emery (Far and away the most often-mentioned book. This book is an absolute "must" for every well-prepared family!)

The Foxfire Book series (in 11 volumes, but IMHO, the first five are the best)

Holy Bible

Where There Is No Dentist by Murray Dickson

"Rawles on Retreats and Relocation"

Making the Best of Basics: Family Preparedness Handbook by James Talmage Stevens

The "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course

Crisis Preparedness Handbook: A Comprehensive Guide to Home Storage and Physical Survival by Jack A. Spigarelli

Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times by Steve Solomon

Tappan on Survival by Mel Tappan

Boston's Gun Bible by Boston T. Party

Seed to Seed: Seed Saving and Growing Techniques for Vegetable Gardeners by Suzanne Ashworth

Survival Guns by Mel Tappan

Boy Scouts Handbook: The First Edition, 1911 (Most readers recommend getting pre-1970 editions.)

All New Square Foot Gardening by Mel Bartholomew

When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance, Sustainability, and Surviving the Long Emergency by Matthew Stein 

Back to Basics: A Complete Guide to Traditional Skills, Third Edition by Abigail R. Gehring

Preparedness Now!: An Emergency Survival Guide (Expanded and Revised Edition) by Aton Edwards

Putting Food By by Janet Greene

First Aid (American Red Cross Handbook) Responding To Emergencies

Making the Best of Basics: Family Preparedness Handbook by James Talmage Stevens

Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson H. Kearney (Available for free download.)

Cookin' with Home Storage by Vicki Tate

SAS Survival Handbookby John "Lofty" Wiseman

Root Cellaring: Natural Cold Storage of Fruits & Vegetables by Mike Bubel

Outdoor Survival Skills by Larry Dean Olsen

Stocking Up: The Third Edition of America's Classic Preserving Guide by Carol Hupping

The American Boy's Handybook of Camp Lore and Woodcraft

Emergency Food Storage & Survival Handbook by Peggy Layton

98.6 Degrees: The Art of Keeping Your Ass Alive by Cody Lundin

Seed to Seed: Seed Saving and Growing Techniques for Vegetable Gardeners by Suzanne Ashworth

Emergency: This Book Will Save Your Life by Neil Strauss

Five Acres and Independence: A Handbook for Small Farm Management by Maurice G. Kains

Essential Bushcraft by Ray Mears

The Survivor book series by Kurt Saxon. Many are out of print in hard copy, but they are all available on DVD. Here, I must issue a caveat lector ("reader beware"): Mr. Saxon has some very controversial views that I do not agree with. Among other things he is a eugenicist.

How to Stay Alive in the Woods by Bradford Angier

The New Organic Grower by Eliot Coleman

Tom Brown Jr.'s series of books, especially:

Tom Brown's Field Guide to Wilderness Survival

Tom Brown's Field Guide to Nature Observation and Tracking

Tom Brown's Guide to Wild Edible and Medicinal Plants (Field Guide)  

Total Resistance by H. von Dach

Ditch Medicine: Advanced Field Procedures For Emergencies by Hugh Coffee

Living Well on Practically Nothing by Ed Romney

The Secure Home by Joel Skousen

Outdoor Survival Skills by Larry Dean Olsen

When All Hell Breaks Loose: Stuff You Need To Survive When Disaster Strikesby Cody Lundin

The Last Hundred Yards: The NCO's Contribution to Warfareby John Poole.

Camping & Wilderness Survival: The Ultimate Outdoors Book by Paul Tawrell

Engineer Field Data (US Army FM 5-34) --Available online free of charge, with registration, but I recommend getting a hard copy. preferably with the heavy-duty plastic binding.

Great Livin' in Grubby Times by Don Paul

Just in Case by Kathy Harrison

Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson H. Kearney (Available for free download.)

How to Survive Anything, Anywhere: A Handbook of Survival Skills for Every Scenario and Environment by Chris McNab

Storey's Basic Country Skills: A Practical Guide to Self-Reliance by John & Martha Storey

Adventure Medical Kits A Comprehensive Guide to Wilderness & Travel Medicineby Eric A. Weiss, M.D.

Rodale's Ultimate Encyclopedia of Organic Gardening: The Indispensable Green Resource for Every Gardener  

Special Operations Forces Medical Handbook (superceded the very out-of-date ST 31-91B)

Wilderness Medicine, 5th Edition by Paul S. Auerbach

Four-Season Harvest: Organic Vegetables from Your Home Garden All Year Longby Elliot Coleman

Back to Basics: A Complete Guide to Traditional Skills, Third Edition by Abigail R. Gehring

Government By Emergency by Dr. Gary North

The Weed Cookbook: Naturally Nutritious - Yours Free for the Taking! by Adrienne Crowhurst

The Modern Survival Retreat by Ragnar Benson

Last of the Mountain Men by Harold Peterson

Primitive Wilderness Living & Survival Skills: Naked into the Wilderness by John McPherson

LDS Preparedness Manual, edited by Christopher M. Parrett

The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by James H. Kunstler

Principles of Personal Defense - Revised Edition by Jeff Cooper.

Survival Poaching by Ragnar Benson

The Winter Harvest Handbook: Year Round Vegetable Production Using Deep Organic Techniques and Unheated Greenhouses by Eliot Coleman

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The Case for Accumulating and (Eventually) Using Silver Coins

I recently did a study of prices (food and gasoline) comparing the costs in the early 1960s with 2009 prices for the same items.  I chose the early 1960s because that was the last time 90% silver coins were in circulation.  It was common back then for people to go into a grocery store or gas station and pay for purchases with a few quarters or dimes.  The prices were that cheap back then.

For my 2009 food prices I looked at the prices in my local Safeway store in Portland, Oregon.  I was careful to only look at the regular prices, not the “sale” prices.  The problem one typically runs into when making price comparisons is that many of the food items have been reformulated or repackaged into different-sized containers.  There is a also a much larger variety of items available today.  To circumvent these problems I focused on items that I can remember seeing back in the 1960s.  (I’m giving away my age here.)  They were mostly name brand items that many people avoid today precisely because they are so expensive.

Government-paid economists often fudge the numbers by making excuses that the products under study have changed or that people will choose to substitute less expensive goods for the ones they formerly bought when the prices go up.  That’s clearly cheating!

I stuck with the name brand items so that the comparisons would be fair and honest.  I made sure that I studied only foods and brands that were commonly available both in the early 1960s and today.  Most meat, produce, and dairy products easily fit the criteria.  So does regular gasoline.  This way we have an accurate picture of how much food or gasoline a silver quarter or dime would buy then, and now.

For the purpose of this discussion I will limit the list to just the following 20 common items:

Year of Ad

Item

Cost Then

   

Unit

   

Oz. Silver Then

 

 

Cost Now

   

Oz. Silver Now

   

Qty./Oz. of Silver.

1963

Sliced bacon (Oscar Meyer)

$0.29

   

lb.

   

0.21

 

 

$5.29

   

0.40

   

2.5

1963

Mazola oil (24 oz.)

$0.69

   

bottle

   

0.50

 

 

$4.95

   

0.38

   

2.6

1960

Land O' Lakes butter

$0.67

   

lb.

   

0.48

 

 

$4.99

   

0.38

   

2.6

1960

Beef, sirloin steak

$0.89

   

lb.

   

0.64

 

 

$4.99

   

0.38

   

2.6

1963

Kielbasa (Polish sausage)

$0.59

   

lb.

   

0.43

 

 

$4.49

   

0.34

   

2.9

1961

Cheerios cereal

$0.25

   

pkg.

   

0.18

 

 

$3.99

   

0.31

   

3.3

1963

Beef, chuck roast

$0.49

   

lb.

   

0.35

 

 

$3.99

   

0.31

   

3.3

1960

Pork chops (thin sliced)

$0.59

   

lb.

   

0.43

 

 

$3.29

   

0.25

   

4.0

1960

Flour (Gold Medal)

$0.49

   

5-lb. bag

   

0.35

 

 

$3.09

   

0.24

   

4.2

1963

Ham

$0.39

   

lb.

   

0.28

 

 

$2.29

   

0.18

   

5.7

1960

Del Monte peaches

$0.29

   

can

   

0.21

 

 

$2.15

   

0.16

   

6.1

1963

Potatoes (russet)

$0.39

   

10-lb. bag

   

0.28

 

 

$1.79

   

0.14

   

7.3

1963

Eggs, large

$0.45

   

dozen

   

0.33

 

 

$1.79

   

0.14

   

7.3

1963

Beef, ground

$0.45

   

lb.

   

0.33

 

 

$1.77

   

0.14

   

7.4

1960

Regular gasoline

$0.29

   

gallon

   

0.21

 

 

$2.69

   

0.20

   

4.8 gal.

1963

Onions

$0.15

   

lb.

   

0.10

 

 

$1.49

   

0.11

   

8.8

1963

Chicken (whole fryer)

$0.29

   

lb.

   

0.21

 

 

$1.29

   

0.10

   

10.1

1963

Green (bell) peppers

$0.05

   

each

   

0.04

 

 

$0.99

   

0.08

   

13.2

1963

Apples

$0.16

   

lb.

   

0.12

 

 

$0.98

   

0.07

   

13.3

1960

Bananas

$0.10

   

lb.

   

0.07

 

 

$0.59

   

0.05

   

22.2

Notice that I have priced the items both in dollars and in ounces of silver.  The prices (in dollars) are deceptive because, on average, prices for these 20 items have increased eightfold since the early 1960s!  The prices in silver tell the truth.  In most cases the prices (in silver) are somewhat comparable.  Many items even look “cheap” now, in silver terms.  That implies that the price of silver is too low.  But, that’s the topic of a different discussion.

Two columns show the prices in silver terms.  The column all the way to the right shows how many of each item may be purchased today with a single ounce of silver.  This is a useful table because, if the paper money completely fails, one can rely on the table to price foods and gasoline in silver.  One ounce of silver buys four pounds of pork chops, for example.  The same ounce of silver buys close to five gallons of gasoline or 22 pounds of bananas!

It’s easy to see that as little as 20 ounces of silver could take a family of four 1,500 miles over the highway while feeding them all along the way.  If the dollar goes all the way bad you are to find a store that’s open along the way you might be able to convince the manager to accept some pre-1965 90% silver coins because he would recognize them for what they are (real American money.)  The pricing is all you would have to haggle over.

Many people love the old (pre-1936) silver dollars.  It would probably not be difficult to convince a store manager to let you have a couple of pounds of ground beef, a loaf of bread, a bag of potatoes, and a box of Cheerios for one silver dollar!

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Tuesday July 7 2009

Letter Re: Home Heating Oil Price Fluctuations--Time to Buy Low

Hi Jim,
Some older neighborhood houses [in the Pacific Northwest] have large oil tanks for heating under driveways, in basements, and buried under yards. Last winter, we saw our neighbors run dry during a rare 2-week snow/ice event that even chained fuel trucks couldn't get around in. Portland and Seattle are notoriously under-prepared for ice/snow on roads, and actually have a "intentional neglect policy" of letting it melt without salt/de-icer rather than clearing the roads. Prepare to walk on uncleared pavement and stay around home!

If the predictions of temporary global oil over-supply are correct and fuel oil drops to around $1.50/gal, filling or topping-off a 600 or 1,000 gallon tank at that price would be a prudent thing to do with any extra money in the budget or even savings beyond the 6-month emergency reserve. Over-supply and clearance-pricing will be temporary as OPEC and others throttle back expensive drilling and pumping operations while the supply chain clears and prices return to "normal".

Even if a person is a renter, having a full heating fuel tank is a good thing. Some rental contracts make heating the building and a maintaining a minimum heating fuel level a requirement. The fuel in the tank remains the property of the renter, minus the amount that was there when they moved in (or language in the rental contract), and can be sold to the landlord, next tenant, or sucked up and moved by an oil company truck for a fee.

Filling before heating season allows plenty of time for sediment to settle in the tank before drawing it into the in-line filter ahead of the burner. Anecdotal commentary by furnace service men indicates that furnaces that run on mostly-full tanks have fewer burner problems than those that use "bottom of the tank" fuel. Farm and trucking supply houses have "fuel polishing" additives/fungicides and pump/filter systems that keep tanks and fuel clean that might be safely added to a home storage tank system. Being able to fill a five-gallon can of stored/filtered Home Heating Oil from a valved-spout in the basement might be useful at some point in the future [, since Home Heating Oil can be substituted for diesel fuel, in extremis]. Cheers, - Karl in Portland, Oregon

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Sunday July 5 2009

Three Rules for Persuading the Sheeple, by Tall Sally

This article could also be titled: "How to Convince Friends and Family to Prepare for Economic Collapse." One of the greatest problems for the prepper is getting family and friends on board without alienating them or terrifying them into inaction. With this article, I hope to use my experience to show you how to gently and persuasively warn friends and family about the coming economic crisis. I have used this approach with several people and found it to be successful.

I am writing this article now because I believe that now is the time to approach your sheeple about prepping if you have not done so already. More and more people are noticing that something is wrong with our economy, and many of them are probably ready to hear about preparedness, but only if you approach them from the right direction. My goal is to help you find a good approach.

Why should you listen to me? Well, in my previous job, I was a corporate educator at a large mortgage bank. I learned two things from that job: how to watch my income spiral down into oblivion along with the entire mortgage industry, and how to explain complex concepts in simple ways. You don’t need my help to watch your income spiral into oblivion, so instead I will teach you how to explain complex concepts.

Before we get started, let’s emphasize a few basic rules that educators follow. I will elaborate on these rules in this article, and then I will show you how to put them into practice.

Three Basic Rules of Persuasion
Rule 1: Take it slow.
Rule 2: Keep it simple and sane (KISS).
Rule 3: Relate it back to their lives.

Now let's expand these concepts a little bit.

Rule 1: TAKE IT SLOW
Are you sure that you want to have this conversation? There are schools of thought that say you should never mention your preps to anyone. Think this through carefully; otherwise you may have 45 family members knocking on your door next winter. I considered this before mentioning it to anyone; however, I don't think life is worth living if everyone I love dies, especially if I could have warned them. Besides, my nearest relative lives a five hour drive away from me. They'll have a long walk to pester me.

Define your audience. Think ahead and focus your efforts on the most level-headed, trustworthy, "solid" people that you know. This has several purposes. First of all, such people are more likely to listen to you and believe you. Secondly, other people will trust that person; once you persuade them,so they can subsequently persuade two or three other people.

Establish essential concepts and build on them. That's how adults learn. You see it in this very article; I have given you three simple rules and now I am expanding on them.

Rule 2: KEEP IT SIMPLE AND SANE (KISS)
Don't expect too much, too fast. Remember, that some folks' idea of "preparing" is to buy an extra six-pack on Saturday because the liquor stores are closed on Sundays. Take it easy; my experience is that prepping is a daunting task to most people and if you give them too much information you will spook them. Once they're spooked, it's hard to get them to listen at all.

Climb down from the crazy tree. No, I am not saying that you are crazy for being a prepper. I am saying that most people think that preppers are crazy. Your goal here is to persuade and convince. I would never have convinced my auntie successfully if I had mentioned my gas masks or my plans for a fallout shelter. Keeping your mouth shut about these things is also good OPSEC. Your goal is to sound just a little bit more prepared than them: "Terry and I bought a few cans extra cans of Spaghetti-Os last week..."

Keep language plain and simple. Imagine that you're explaining all this to a 12-year-old. Use simple words and concepts. Adults learn better that way. Complicated language makes them feel threatened, and they tune it out.

Keep concepts plain and simple, too. The novice trainer’s most common mistake is to dump a bunch of information on the learner and believe that “since they heard it, they know it.” That’s not how adults learn. We learn through repetition of basic concepts.

Rule 3: WITH A RELATION
Relate it to their life, not yours. Imagine that you go on two blind dates. The first person talks about themselves non-stop all through dinner. You can barely get a word in edgewise. The second person engages you in interesting conversation and hangs on your every word. Which person do you call back?

You call back the person that talks with you, not at you. The same is true in persuasion. You are telling them these things because you love them. Listen closely to how they respond, like the loving person that you are.

Use concrete examples that matter to them. Which of these two approaches is more captivating?
“A loaf of bread might cost you $20 next fall.”

or,

“The Federal Reserve was established in 1913, as the central banking authority of the United States. The Federal Reserve is a monopolistic cartel of bankers, and they established a new kind of currency called fiat currency, which is unconstitutional. Now, fiat currency is basically just paper backed up by law. It doesn’t mean anything…”

Obviously, the short sentence that relates to their life is better than the ten-minute history lecture on something they barely understand and don’t care about.


Now Let’s Practice.
With these rules in mind, practice a typical conversation. I have provided a script below, but in reality you don’t want a one-sided script; you want a conversation. Talk with them, not at them.

Also, notice that each part of the conversation is related to one of our three rules.

Rule 1: START SLOW...

Start with Pleasantries. (This establishes a sense of ease and rapport.) "Hi Aunt Bea, it's been awhile since we talked. Yes, Terry and I are doing well. We went hiking last weekend and really enjoyed it. How are things in Mayberry?"

Explain why you are calling them. (This gets their attention and prepares them for what's next.) "I'm calling you because I have something serious to talk about, and I know you're level-headed and you're likely to listen to me."

Establish your credibility. (Adults want to know why they are listening to you. Who are you, anyway?) "As you know, I was laid off from that big mortgage bank awhile back, and when the bank started having trouble I started paying really close attention to the financial blogs. I've been reading them for awhile..."

Establish the credibility of your sources. "... and I've been starting to see some news leak into the mainstream financial press, such as Yahoo Finance..." (This is true.)

Rule 2: KISS...
Explain the problem. Keep it simple and keep your language sane.
"A lot of credible sources are saying that there may be rapid inflation starting this fall. Nobody knows for sure, but it could be a little or it could be very high.It might take $100 just buy a loaf of bread. There are also rumors of a possible bank holiday this fall. The phrase 'bank holiday' is really a misnomer. It's when they close the banks for a few days or a few weeks, and you can't withdraw cash to buy food and pay bills. They might do it if they needed to fix a problem with the banking system. This is harder to confirm than the inflation, but I think it's wise to prepare for the possibility."

Let’s analyze the above paragraph using our KISS rule.
I kept it to two main points. There are a million things to prepare for; you need to decide what the most convincing, urgent, easily-prepped-for problem is and stick to it. I chose economic collapse because it’s in the news right now, and it gets people’s attention.
I kept my language approachable, and when there was a new term I explained it simply. I didn’t mention any off-the-wall theories or rants about the Federal Reserve. The bank holiday is a rumor but well within the realm of possibility; but I emphasize that the inflation is NOT a rumor. It is a credible possibility being discussed in mainstream financial publications.
I didn't just say "There's going to be an economic collapse." I gave them a concrete example (the $100 bread loaf) that would relate to their lives. And speaking of relating it to their lives…

Rule 3: RELATE...
Suggest some ways to prepare. "There are things you can do to prepare for this, Aunt Bea, and it doesn't have to be really complicated. You can take some money out of the bank, and that's good to have on hand anyway in case of emergencies like earthquakes. I recommend keeping about a month's worth of cash on hand, if you can. You can also buy some of those old quarters and dimes... you know, from before 1965, when they used to make them out of silver. [Take a little time here to explain why junk silver is good in times of inflation. Rawles has some great articles. Also explain that it can be purchased at local coin shops, and explain the current cost.] And of course, since food will get more expensive later, it might not hurt to buy a little extra food now."

Take a moment to consider: Why would you start by talking about cash, then talk about silver, then talk about food?
First of all, these are all simple, non-threatening recommendations that anyone can follow. You want to start with the easiest step and go from there. Let's go back to our three rules:
Slow:
Start slow by talking about the cash first, because everyone knows how to get money from the bank.
KISS:
Talk about silver next, because you can emphasize that they can keep it simple and spend just a few dollars, if they want. (In other words, right now they can buy one silver dime for about $1.50.) If you explain it well, this idea is unthreatening and easy to do. It's also "more sane" than telling them to buy gold because many people are familiar with the old silver coins.
Relate:
Mention the food last because to some people in your audience, stocking up on food immediately rings the “crazy survivalist” bell. It's good to put it in context of a wise financial decision related to the other steps they’re taking.

Ask them to talk to their family. This relates the whole conversation back to their lives. It makes them feel less alone, and it impresses on them that we're all in this together, etc. It's also the charitable thing to do. The more people that prepare, the better. I have also used this moment to ask them to help me persuade others (my mom, my grandparents, etc) since two voices are more credible than one.

Thank them. This lightens up the conversation and makes it sane. "Thanks for listening to me about this. I'm sorry to bring up all this gloom and doom. I just really care about you guys."

Continue the conversation according to your audience. Tailor your spiel to the person you’re talking to. Think back to the three rules that I mentioned earlier (slow; KISS; relate). Below are profiles of three of my favorite aunties. How would you apply those rules to your conversation with them?

Auntie A is threatened by the idea of prepping. She will barely talk about it.

Auntie B says she has a gun, and she also says she wants to start a garden.

Auntie C lives in a big, dangerous city and she will not move (cannot afford to and has lived there all her life). However, she is otherwise on board and even excited that someone finally mentioned it, and she’d like to read some online articles. She’s worried about her antiques business in this economy.

Take a moment to think about your approach, and then read on to learn how I approached each of my aunties.

With Auntie A, I took it slow. I will be lucky if she will buy a week's worth of spaghetti; I didn't push her any further than the script above. I moved on to talk about the weather or whatever. I can always talk to her about it again later.

With Auntie B, I followed the KISS rule. I suggested getting a little extra ammo for her gun and enough seeds for her garden. These are simple things that she can do tomorrow, and they’re not that scary. I did not say outright that ammo and seeds will be unavailable after the collapse, because that sounds insane.

With Auntie C, I related it back to her life. Since she's web-savvy, I pointed her to a web site that discusses prepping to live in the city during an economic collapse (FerFAL's web site). (To “keep it sane” I mentioned that his site is "geared toward American survivalists" and “I don’t like reading it because it’s scary” but "if you can get past all that, it's worth looking at.") Because she mentioned that her antiques business will probably not prosper, I also pointed her to posts about how people make money in the city in hard times

In conclusion...

This can be the only conversation you have with your loved ones, or it can be the first in a series. However you approach it, remember these proverbs:
"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." and, "A prophet has no honor in his own country."

In other words, no matter how simply and gently you explain the coming collapse, there will be some that prepare and some that won't. You don't have any control over that. Your only duty is to try to gently persuade them in a way that they can understand.

Final quiz: What are the three basic rules of persuasion?

The Memsahib Adds: Before approaching a relative or friend with the topic of preparedness, consider: Is there some aspect of prepping that would fulfill one of their long-held desires, or perhaps even a childhood fantasy? Have they always wanted to own a horse? Be a master chef? Live like a Native American? Live off the land like a Mountain Man? Be a doctor? Be an herbal medicinalist? Be an explorer? Be a teacher? Own a large acreage? Be a park ranger? Sail the seven seas? Be a philanthropist? Be a missionary? There are aspects of preparedness that can fit into all of these desires. So, in effect, you can make prepping fun and fulfilling for them. When I was growing up, I always loved baby lambs and wanted to own sheep. I was also disappointed that I didn't grow up on a farm, as my mother had. (I was raised in the suburbs.) Our path to preparedness was a great excuse to buy some acreage, and raise a flock of sheep. This led to buying spinning wheels and a loom, learning how to card, spin and dye wool, learning how to knit, how to felt wool, raising angora rabbits, and raising angora goats. This in turn eventually led to us getting dairy goats, and later a dairy cow. So all of this fulfilled a childhood fantasy of having my own farm. Thus, prepping felt rewarding, and in no way did I feel threatened or did it seem like I was living under a dark storm cloud. When I served my first loaf of bread that I had made with eggs from my chickens, and wheat that I had sown and later hand-ground, the rooster in our barnyard couldn't crow any louder than I could! My grandmother would have been proud of me. Talk about heavy gravitas, when bringing such loaves to a church potluck! (But even just brining muffins with berries that you grew yourself, or picked out in the wild can give the same sense of accomplishment.) It was much the same for me when I finished making my first sweater with wool from sheep that I had helped deliver. I had shorn the wool, carded it, dyed it, spun it and knitted it--bringing the sweater all to its final form. What a lot of work, but what great fun!

My favorite way to introduce this topic to other women is through teaching "heritage crafts". The homemaking skills of our pioneer ancestors are something that most women--even city women--can relate to. Whether it is canning, gardening, small livestock, sewing, cooking, baking, knitting, leather-working, candle making, soap-making , et cetera. I have done all of these, and and have enjoyed passing on these skills to neighbors, friends, and even my nieces and nephews. Perhaps your local church, 4H club, scout troop, PTA, homeschooling club, or public school would be open to having you teach a class or put on a demonstration.

I found that the more I learned about one preparedness topic, the more that I wanted to learn about related topics. For example, when I was raising rabbits, it was fun learning how many different ways I could prepare rabbit meat dishes. And when I was dairying, it was fun to branch out into making yogurt, soft cheese, and milk soap. With God's providential guiding hand, your friends will each find a special preparedness niche, that will benefit their families, and in turn get them excited about many more aspects of preparedness.

A note to husbands, fathers, brothers, and uncles: Please do not alienate your female friends and relatives from preparedness by "assigning" them a prepping specialty. Instead, let them pick their own, to suit their particular disposition and interests. By letting women choose our own areas of expertise, it gives us the feeling of being in control of our lives in an uncertain world. Encourage and nurture their interests, but don't dictate them!

Part of getting prepared is recognizing the fact that some aspects of preparedness are more "fun" than others. And, correspondingly, what constitutes "fun" for one individual is not necessarily considered fun by another. How many men wouldn't blink an eye at buying a $700 SIG or a $1,500 FAL, but get anxious about "the expense" when they see their wives looking through a Louet or LeClerc catalog? What is needed is a well-rounded approach to gathering logistics, tools, and skills. There is much more to preparedness than just "guns and groceries." Get prepared, but don't obsess over all the gloom-n-doom "what ifs?" You should instead take a well-rounded approach that will provide a family with educational activities and lots of fun, all while actively learning, preparing, and cross-training. One way to ease your spouse into a preparedness mindset is by encouraging her to get involved with a the local fiber guild, 4H club, or farmer's market co-op.

Tall Sally is absolutely right about going slowly. Get your friends and relatives into preparedness one small step at a time. Encourage them to get prepared, by playing off of their pre-existing interests, fantasies, and hobbies.

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Wednesday July 1 2009

Two Letters Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation

Jim:

The figure [cited by "Feral Farmer"] of 100 square miles per hunter-gatherer can't be correct. North America covers an area of about 24,709,000 square kilometers (9,540,000 square miles). So, at 100 square mile per hunter gatherer, would only support 95,400 natives. Considering that large chunks of the Arctic and desert are minimal in their resources, not to mention Greenland, this figure (100 sq mi) can't be correct.

Here are a couple of online references:
Agricultural practices and policies for carbon sequestration in soil By John M. Kimble, Rattan Lal, Ronald F. Follett

and,

Food, Energy, and Society By David Pimentel, Marcia Pimentel

These suggest about 40-200 hectares (a hectare is a 100 meter square). This would allow 12 million to 60 million people for the continent, which is much more realistic.

Clearly, though, this is not an efficient way of feeding population, and [given the current population] would quickly lead to both starvation and stripping of resources. - Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog's Editor at Large

Mr. Rawles,
If I might add a few comments to [Feral Farmer's] letter. Living in a rural and now recreational area of Wisconsin I have noticed several things. Unemployment is becoming a very serious issue here. Many businesses are simply folding or moving away. It is mostly the small one to five person business's that simply disappear. No big headlines, just quiet and slow.

1. Locals are fishing more than ever are putting up their Friday night fish fry in the freezer for future use. Friday night fish frys are almost religion here and have been for years. So if they cannot afford to go to the local bar for it, they will have the fixin's at home. This means that City folks may not be eating so well if they come here, expecting to live off the land or lake as it were. Small game is the same thing.

2. Mr. Feral's comment about taking 10 years to really know your land is so true. It cracks me up when I hear a city person ask: "What's so tough about farming? You just dig up some dirt, dump some seeds in and get some food at the end of summer." Yes, I have actually had that said to me. I have a field that is a bit lowland, and some what shaded by large pine trees. It was a pasture for the previous owner (perhaps for good reason). I have been trying for years to get a really good crop of anything off that field. The weeds seem to love it, but corn does not. This year we had a cold April, wet May and ups and downs in June. 90 for a couple of days and 60 the next. My corn refused to germinate. I view this particular field as a challenge and am determined to find a crop that will grow. I can do it because I have other very productive fields. My point is the same as Mr. Feral's. You cannot simply expect food to grow because you think it should, because you
read a book. Thank, - Carl R.

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Tuesday June 30 2009

Letter Re: An Outward Bound Prepper's Perspective

Hi Jim,
I’m new to your site and books but not to the concepts and precepts. My dad had a survivalist/self-sufficient mindset with a cool mix of Native American philosophy and know-how. I didn’t eat store bought meat or baked goods until I was 10 or 12 and thought processing shoulders of venison in the kitchen was the norm. We had a huge garden and fruit tree orchard. My mom was a master at canning; although I think it should be called "jarring" because you’re putting it in jars, not cans. He collected, traded, and rebuilt guns and amassed quite a collection. I grew up reloading cartridges and sanding/staining stocks and thought nothing of it at the time. He taught us to hunt, fish, camp, garden, live off the land and many other things that I took for granted at the time. He passed away last year but his lessons and way of being in the world still guide me to this day. From reading your novel I now know why he left us a 25 pound bag of really, really old silver coins.

As I have been reading your book and the blogs posts, I keep jotting notes to myself of things that have expanded my knowledge or ones that I would “pipe-in” on. I keep thinking I should read the entire archive of blogs first before piping in but realize that might take a very long time. I get bogged down in all the heavy duty technical talk and find myself putting it down or signing off for awhile. I feel very simplistic compared to a lot of the bloggers and find that I’m beginning to questions my own philosophies and preparedness. I’ve been stashing stuff for 20+ years but it has always been with the mindset of whether it can fit in a backpack or the back of my truck. I’m more of the Doug Carlton type. I can fill a backpack and disappear into the woods for many, many months and live very comfortably. And yes, shock-shock, I am a woman of small/lean stature.

I spent 10 years working for Outward Bound and 25 years backpacking/exploring North America . I’ve extensively scoped out where I would head and have created some caches along the way. I lived the majority of two years “out” and was amazed when I returned to “civilization” how much I appreciated instant fire, instant hot water, instant heat, real beds, not camping in snow, and not having to sleep with my boots in my sleeping bag to keep them from freezing overnight. Still, with all my experience and skill, the more I read of your book and blogs the more I’m wondering: Did I miss something?

I was reading through the Retreat Owner Profiles and kinda felt inadequate until some thoughts started hitting me. Could these people live/survive without the majority of all this stuff? If they had to choose 10 items, other than what they were wearing, to survive what would they be? (Hint: one of mine is heavy duty paper clips). If they had to choose three items what would they be? Do they know how to find dry wood and start a fire when it has been raining nonstop for two days? Could they curl up under a Ponderosa Pine without a tent and sleep a rainy night away? How would they react around bears, mountain lions, and the sorts? What if they got hurt out in the woods, could they handle it? How “tough” are they without their guns? The questions just kept coming and I started feeling less inadequate.

Since discovering your web site and starting all the reading my thoughts are definitely evolving. At my house I have been stashing for years what I call “luxury” stuff that would be part of a stable retreat. Within a year I will be getting a healthy inheritance and you now have me seriously considering creating a retreat at one of my “finds” from all the years of exploration. Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Washington and British Columbia have been my playgrounds for years. Over the last 20+ years of “playing” I have been honing in on where my bit of wilderness would be.

Also, thanks to you and your web site, I am now going to go back and take my brother up on some of his recent offers. One of which pertained to my dads extensive gun collection. I was home a couple of months ago and my brother took me into the “secret” room that housed a lot of my dad’s “toys”. We grew up calling them “toys” because my dad was somewhat adamant about people outside the family knowing anything about his extensive collection of guns, knives, arrowheads, old coins, et. cetera. I was staring at a room full of guns (amongst other things) and he told me take whatever I wanted. All I took was one small handgun because most of them are what I call “guy guns”. They were big, beefy, heavy, etc. Now I am thinking even if I can’t use them, I can trade them for something more my size. Without having me ingest an encyclopedia on guns, what would you suggest? I’m 5'5", 110 pounds, with small bones. I have access to most any new gun at cost or below cost. My brother would tell me not to by new but to go with unregistered older models, but some of the newer ones are seriously slick.

I have lots of thoughts and tips about living/surviving in the woods but it seems a lot of your web site is devoted to established retreats and I’m not there yet. So, I will keep reading and evolving my thoughts. You got me digging out all my old topo maps of the western states and going back through my experiences there. I am going to Oregon in a week, Utah in three weeks, and northern Montana in a couple of months. I had planned on just doing more re-exploration but will now have a more focused approach. So, thanks! Take care and keep your socks dry, - Sharon

JWR Replies: It is a pleasure hearing from a reader with extensive backwoods experience. You will find that invaluable. I often say that there is no substitute for hard-earned practical experience. It comes with some years, and with putting one foot in front the other, over hill and dale--chalking up considerable mileage off of pavement.

As for your firearms question: My wife is 5'4" and is under 100 pounds. Her primary rifle is a Valmet Hunter .308 semi-auto, which is a rifle generally carried by much larger shooters. The trick was having both the stock and barrel shortened, so that the rifle would fit her properly. She also had a Pachmayr Decelerator recoil pad installed. That rifle has taken a lot of deer in the past 15 years, since it has also been used by our teenagers, while growing up. Don't miss some of the letters in the SurvivalBlog archives about gun choice for smaller shooters. Just type "small-statured and shooters" into the "Search Posts on SurvivalBlog:" search box at the top of the right hand bar.

Good luck with your search for a suitable retreat. For my selection rationale, and some detailed locales suggestions, see my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation".

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Monday June 29 2009

Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation

Dear Editor:
John M.'s letter was excellent, polite, and to the point.

The following are my rules for townies:

1. If your water comes out of a faucet or a bottle, and you can not safely walk to a permanent backup source in less than 10 minutes every day, then you will die.

2. If you do not raise your own food, or personally know the family that you bought it from, you will either die, or be forever controlled by someone with a clipboard and a list, and you will wish you were dead.

3. If you live in the city because your job is more important than your life, then don't bother bugging out. The only Job you are likely to get out here in the country is digging graves for people that think like you.

4. A centuries old rule of farming: It takes a minimum of 10 years of farming a piece of ground to know it. So, you're going to compress a decade of intimate knowledge into a weekend, because you read a book? We'll send the guy mentioned in Rule #3 out to your shack next spring.

5. Unless you have a fully stocked and equip 19th century-style working farm to escape to, with food for two years stored in place for humans and livestock, you are simply a well-intentioned refugee, or an unwelcome house guest.

6. [Forget "foraging".] In the 1850s, (for the purpose of sizing reservations), it was determined that a skillful Native American needed 100 square miles (10 miles x 10 miles) minimum, to live off the land, per person. There was a lot more game back then, and less afraid of humans. You're going to be competing with around 300 million hungry human bellies, every morning.

7. Ten cases of canned food fits in a 2'x2'x2' area. Around 30 cases will give you one meal a day for a year, and fits under a [tall] bed. The gear, tools, food, and clothing needed for a family of four for a year in the wild would fill one or more semi-trailers. So you think that you're going to effortlessly bug out with a truck and trailer at O-Dark-Thirty and survive? Stay home, or become breakfast for less dainty bellies.

Finally: There are two terms you hope never appear in your obituary: "unfortunate accident", or "shallow grave".

If you and your gear are not already pre-positioned on your own homestead, and your city job is just seasonal or part time for the Gov.Bux, you are probably bound to end up in one of these two categories by bugging out.

Prepare, but stay where you are, unless the emergency is a temporary natural event - Feral Farmer

JWR Replies: I concur that taking halfway measures is an invitation to becoming a statistic in a societal collapse. As I've stressed countless times, the best approach is to live at your retreat year-round. A marginal second choice is to maintain a fully-stocked retreat that is constantly under the watchful eye of a trusted friend or relative that can also keep your fruit nut trees watered and look after your livestock. But even then, you'll likely lack the requisite large-scale gardening experience in your retreat's particular climate zone. You will also lack having developed trust relationships with your neighbors--something crucial to survival. It is incredibly naive for anyone to anticipate that they can "bug out" with everything that they'll need. Even if you are fortunate enough arrive with your vehicle and trailer intact, as "Feral Farmer" points out, you will be way behind the power curve: under-equipped, and under-provisioned. And as, John M. mentioned, those that are under-prepared will probably end up in a life of thievery, rather than watch their families starve. The goal here is to be part of the solution, rather than part of the problem.

I also concur with Feral Farmer's observations on foraging. The hunting and even the fishing pressure will be tremendous. I've heard from consulting clients in California' Coast Range that deer harvest have dropped to pitifully low numbers in the past five years, because of the depredations of Mountain Lions. (Which have been elevated to protected species status in the People's Paradise of California.) The chances of filling just one deer tag, they say, are now slim except for anyone that has the time to willing to "hunt hard" throughout California's short deer season. So, I ask: If this has happened when there were just a few thousand excess mountain lions, then what will happen when there are an extra 5-to-10 million deer hunters wandering around California, shooting at anything that moves? (The California deer population has already dropped from more than one million to an estimated 485,000. That is not a lot of deer to go around, WTSHTF. And what will happen to the freshwater fishing stocks, when there are hundreds of thousands of set lines being worked, year round?

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Thursday June 25 2009

Avoiding Bugging Out, by Steve M.

One core tenet of the Survival and Preparation (S&P) culture that is often misunderstood, misapplied and has a high probability of failing, and that is “the bug-out”.  I am prompted to write this after reading so many S&P-related books, blogs and forums where individuals are indicating that their primary plan, and the focus of their preparations, is bugging-out.  The common discussion topics of bug-out vehicles (BOV), bug-out bags (BOB), bug-out land, etc, and the overall S&P lexicon confirm the importance placed on the bug-out concept.   Although well organized and executed, a 1,600 mile bug-out is portrayed by some of “The Group” in the novel "Patriots".

Don’t misunderstand, bugging-out does have a role in S&P: if your residence becomes completely uninhabitable, for any number of reasons (earthquake, radiation, toxins, fire, destruction, war, etc.), then relocation is mandatory.  In these cases, being prepared to mobilize and relocate yourself, your family, and some resources is vitally important.  Such situations force the prepper to implement Plan B.  The problems with bugging-out are both numerous and severe, and are to be avoided or countered, if possible:

  • Only a small, finite quantity of supplies can be transported
  • Dependency on replenishing supplies is created
  • A good place to relocate may not be found or actually available even if prearranged.
  • It may not be possible to travel (impassable roads, vehicle failure)
  • You may not be welcomed by the residents of where you relocate or in the territory that you pass through
  • An operational BOV creates an attractive target if it appears to be transporting anything of value and due to the minimal security that can be provided

It has been well established by this blog and many S&P de facto leaders that outside of a few specific circumstances, the primary plan, Plan A, should always be to bug-in.  Staying at your primary home has many advantages:

  • More food/fuel/shelter resources can be available
  • The facility can be better maintained due to your frequent access
  • Better established social connections and greater access to shared resources
  • Less need for transportation and transportation fuel
  • Avoids health and safety risks associated with travel
  • Higher levels of security are possible

The problem arises when lack of adequate, fundamental preparation results in the need to bug-out, when it otherwise could have been avoided.  In other words, Plan A (bugging-in at your primary home) must be abandoned unnecessarily and prematurely, and Plan B (the secondary and far worse choice) becomes the only option, due to the prepper’s own actions or inactions.

People frequently write about how their urban home would be unsustainable, over-ran, or likely destroyed in many potential scenarios.  Therefore their preps focus on bugging-out.  When times are good and relative tranquility prevails, there are many attractions to an urban lifestyle, with job availability at the top of the list.  Recognizing the added risk and difficulty of post-SHTF survival in the urban setting, preppers often abandon bug-in preparations, relegating themselves to bugging-out.  Different life choices, such as small town or rural living, or taking extraordinary efforts to prepare their urban home, increase the viability of Plan A.  For me and many others, the post-SHTF advantages of rural life are secondary to the quality of life enjoyed in these slower-paced environs. 

The math doesn’t support bugging-out.  If one assumes that there are 305 million Americans and about 2.3 billion acres within the US, it sounds promising that there are 7.4 acres available to each American to which to bug-out.  So a family of four should get almost 30 acres, right?  Taking a closer look, inhospitable open cultivated farmland, open pasture, desert, wet lands, and bodies of water can largely be eliminated as places to which to relocate. Although these places could be inhabited, they are less attractive than “heading for the hills” as is often cited as the bug-out plan.  What about the nation’s forests? There are about 747 million acres of forest that appear to be available for relocation.  Data suggest there are 50 million “rural” Americans, and 255 million “urban” Americans.  So we have some part of 255 million people that currently reside in about 60 million urban acres, looking to relocate on something like 757 million forested acres, which is about 3 acres per refugee. Not only is this not much space in which to live and forage, but:

  • There will be great demand  for suitable locations close to urban centers
  • Space will not be assigned, so there will be competition for choice space
  • In a hunting-gathering mode, refugees will be forced to cover a wide area (hundreds of acres) in search of sustenance
  • Rural folks already are there, feel (and have legal) ownership, and are willing to protect their Plan A bug-in position

In conclusion, I advise that one of two actions be taken to reduce the need for depending on a bug-out strategy:

  • Commit to and prepare for bugging-in, regardless of your current residency.  Fortify your home, stock up on supplies there, and implement countermeasures to unique urban challenges. “Improvise, adapt, overcome” as necessary.
  • Relocate to a place where bugging-in can be more practically implemented in as many scenarios as possible. 

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Two Letters Re: Cost Comparison: Factory Loads and Reloaded Ammunition

James,
Grandpappy isn't comparing apples to oranges correctly. His reloaded ammo pricing is for premium self defense bullets, which cost $150 or so per thousand. Most people are going to reload cast lead, which would cost $50 or 60 per thousand for a .40 S&W for example. If you price new premium self defense ammo, like Doubletap, it is going for around $700 a case. If you purchased new brass (why?) Hornady or Speer premium SD bullets, you would still be able to build your own (which we supposedly should not due to legal concerns) SD ammo for half the cost. And practice? Much, much cheaper with lead bullets.

Recent online ammo vendors (who have in stock) are trying to charge almost $500 for a case of .45 ACP 230 grain hardball (look at Natchez). You can load 230 grain lead roundnose (LRN) and duplicate the factory load for maybe $130 or so with good hard cast bullets included. Compared to today's ridiculous ammo prices, you can make up the cost of your reloading setup in a case or two of ammo. Anyone who wants to shoot more than 500 rounds a year should be reloading. Thanks! - M.S.


Jim:
Grandpappy had a great article on reloading, but what about time? Time is money. Reloading is very time consuming. Between [the time required for] collecting the fired brass, sorting the brass, cleaning [or tumbling] the brass, de-priming the brass, adjusting brass specs to factory (sizing, case length, primer pocket, etc…), this alone is a huge labor and use of time.

This, and my worsening eyesight that keeps me from enjoying precision hand loads, is why I gave up on reloading and sold all my equipment and supplies. BTW, I made a bundle of cash selling my new and used brass and primers. Wow! I quadrupled my money.

No one seems to factor in time. I don’t know about you, but have a long list of to-do projects and brass prep is not one of them.

I’m sure glad I bought hard and heavy in ammo back in the old days. I’m set for my life and probably the life of my kid too. - Robert

JWR Replies: I agree that reloading is time-consuming, but it is a valuable skill. For anyone that makes a six-figure salary, it is probably not worthwhile as a hobby at the present time. But for the rest of us, that don't make that much money, and a have a bit of time on our hands, it is well worth doing. It is particularly worthwhile for students and retirees. I love listening to music, and find that since it is a relatively quiet activity, reloading is a soothing, almost cathartic experience. But, of course, "your mileage may vary." Regardless, it is a valuable skill. I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers at least take the time to learn how to do it, and lay in the appropriate tools and supplies. Reloading capability might prove invaluable in a long-term collapse.

OBTW, don't overlook taking the same humidity precautions for powder and primers that you do for loaded ammunition. On that note, I should mention that I prefer using used Tupperware boxes for storing primer and percussion caps. They are airtight, yet they pose less of an explosion risk than metal ammo cans, in the unlikely event of a house fire. (I look for Tupperware containers whenever I go to garage sales, thrift stores, and farm auctions. Powder cans seal quite well by themselves. Again, for the sake of fire safety, they should be stored in a "blow open" plywood cabinet. Again, resist the temptation to store it in something confining like a 20mm ammo can.

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Wednesday June 24 2009

Cost Comparison: Factory Loads and Reloaded Ammunition, by Grandpappy

There are some significant cost differences between reloading shotgun shells and reloading pistol and rifle ammunition. 

The following cost summaries illustrate these differences (all cost data collected in June 2009):

Pistol Ammunition Summary:
$0.270 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 40 S&W 165 Grain Pistol Cartridge.
$0.206 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 40 S&W 165 Grain Pistol Cartridge.
$0.064 = Cost Savings of Reloading one Used 40 S&W 165 Grain Pistol Cartridge.

Rifle Ammunition Summary:
$0.800 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 308 Caliber 165 Grain Rifle Cartridge.
$0.480 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 308 Caliber 165 Grain Rifle Cartridge.
$0.320 = Cost Savings of Reloading one Used 308 Caliber 165 Grain Rifle Cartridge.

Shotgun Shell Summary:
$0.240 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge 2.75-inch #7.5 Shot Shotgun Shell.
$0.410 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch #7.5 Shot Shotgun Shell.
-$0.170 = Additional Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch #7.5 Shot Shotgun Shell.

Shotgun Slug Summary:
$0.631 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Shotgun Slug.
$0.738 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Shotgun Slug.
-$0.107 = Additional Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Shotgun Slug.

A more detailed cost analysis that supports the above numbers appears at the bottom of this article.

The above data is based on average costs as of June 2009.  I did not select the lowest possible cost nor the highest possible cost for each item.  Instead I used the average cost. 

If a person wanted to prove a specific point then he or she could easily select a set of extreme cost data that would support his or her point of view.  For example, a person could compare the cheapest reloading materials to the most expensive factory-loaded ammunition and show a large savings.  Or a person could compare the most expensive reloading materials to the cheapest factory-loaded ammunition and show a loss.

Since I am not trying to encourage or discourage reloading I used the average cost numbers for each material to provide a more balanced perspective.

The above data suggests that the average person could save a little money by reloading pistol and rifle ammunition. 

On the other hand, the average person would save money by purchasing new factory-loaded shotgun shells instead of reloading empty shotgun shells.

The above conclusion is the same one I reached in 1974 when I first investigated the costs of reloading ammunition.  In 1974 I could save money reloading both pistol and rifle ammunition but I would have paid a premium if I had tried to reload shotgun shells.

The above analysis does not take into consideration the cost of the reloading equipment.  If a person were to invest $290 in reloading equipment plus $40 in one set of reloading dies in a specific caliber, then that person would need to reload the following number of empty cartridges to recover the cost of the total investment of $330:

5,156 Pistol Cartridges = $330 divided by $0.064 savings per pistol cartridge, or
1,031 Rifle Cartridges = $330 divided by $0.320 savings per rifle cartridge.

This clearly illustrates that a person would need to reload a lot of ammunition in order to break even on his or her investment of $330 in reloading equipment that includes one set of reloading dies.  Therefore, the average person would probably be better advised to invest in new factory-loaded ammunition if he or she can still find it available for sale.

However, if factory-loaded ammunition becomes increasingly difficult to find, or if its price continues to increase, then a person might want to consider the reloading option as a viable alternative.

Some additional information about the reloading process is at the following page on my web site.  This following web page also discusses the art of bullet casting and how to reduce your lead bullet cost to approximately $0.05 per bullet using clip-on lead wheel weights and ordinary solder that contains tin:

How to Get More Ammunition During Hard Times.

A general discussion on how to improve your marksmanship ability when shooting at paper targets is at the following page on my web site: How to Hit the Target Bull's-Eye.

The following detailed cost information is provided to support the cost data at the beginning of this article. This cost data is based on the average costs for each material as of June 2009:

Pistol Cartridge (40 S&W 165 Grain FMJ):
$0.030 = Primer Cost ($29.99 per box of 1,000 divided by 1,000).
$0.016 = Average Powder Cost ($15.79 per pound divided by 959 cartridges per pound).
$0.160 = Average Bullet Cost ($15.99 per box of 100 divided by 100).
$0.206 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 40 S&W Pistol Cartridge.
$0.270 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 40 S&W Cartridge ($13.49 per box divided by 50 rounds per box).

Rifle Cartridge (308 Caliber 165 Grain):
$0.030 = Primer Cost ($29.99 per box of 1,000 divided by 1,000).
$0.120 = Average Powder Cost ($21.99 per pound divided by 184 cartridges per pound).
$0.330 = Average Bullet Cost ($16.49 per box of 50 divided by 50) .
$0.480 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 308 Rifle Cartridge.
$0.800 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 308 Cartridge ($15.99 per box divided by 20 rounds per box).

Shotgun Shell (12 Gauge 2.75-Inch #7.5 Shot):
$0.039 = Primer Cost ($38.99 per box of 1,000 primers divided by 1,000).
$0.049 = Average Powder Cost ($18.49 per pound divided by 378 Shells per pound).
$0.290 = Average Shot Shell Cost ($50.99 per 11-pound bag divided by 176 Shells per bag).
$0.032 = Average Wad Cost ($7.89 per bag of 250 Wads divided by 250).
$0.410 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge Shotgun Shell.
$0.240 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge Shotgun Shell ($23.97 per case of 100 shells divided by 100 shells per case).

Shotgun Slug (12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Slug):
$0.039 = Primer Cost ($38.99 per box of 1,000 primers divided by 1,000).
$0.107 = Average Powder Cost ($18.79 per pound divided by 175 Shells per pound).
$0.560 = Average One-Ounce Slug Cost ($13.99 per 25 Slugs divided by 25).
$0.032 = Average Wad Cost ($7.89 per bag of 250 Wads divided by 250).
$0.738 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge Shotgun Slug.
$0.631 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge Shotgun Slug ($9.47 per box of 15 slugs divided by 15 slugs per box).

The cost of the empty metallic brass shell case and the empty plastic shotgun shell is not included in the above figures because those items are being reused and therefore they may be considered a “sunk cost.”  A sunk cost is an expense that was incurred in the past and it is not relevant for future purchase decisions.  In other words, after you have paid for the factory-loaded ammunition, and you have fired that ammunition, then you have the choice to either: (1) discard your empty shell cases, or (2) re-use those cases.  If you decide to re-use your fired shell cases then you do not incur any new additional expense.

Sales tax and/or shipping expenses were not included in the preceding data.  These costs would be unique to your geographical location and they would equally impact all the above costs by the same ratio.

The above costs for new factory-loaded ammunition are based on the cost of that ammunition at a Wal-Mart in the southeastern United States as of June 2009. 

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Tuesday June 23 2009

The Jump Kit, by Skyrat

Inside the trunk of my vehicle is a near duplicate of the “jump kit” or “Green Bag” used in my days with the Detroit Fire Department's Emergency Medical Service Division. When I come across a roadside collision before the local medics, everything I need to start patient care is in the green canvas bag I sling over my shoulder. The supplies in my personal vehicle are very much like those I carried in my street medic days, and reflect a strong basic life support/trauma bias.

Basic life support includes those interventions that do not go past the skin, and generally do not require physician direction to implement. Advanced life support, on the other hand, includes therapies that do go past the skin, and include medications, intravenous fluids (IVs), electrical counter shock, and airway intubation.

I do not include intravenous fluids or medications in my green bag for a couple of reasons. First, these items have a limited storage life under the best of conditions, and the rear of a passenger vehicle in Northern Michigan is not calculated to prolong it. Second, the statutes under which paramedics practice here in Michigan requires systematic physician supervision of advanced patient care. Fundamentally, that means that if you are not functioning within an established paramedic system, you are out of bounds should you perform advanced procedures on the street. Third, advanced patient care procedures are occasions of peril even in the hospital, let alone in the rear of an ambulance. This is so, even within a system of continuing education, continuous quality assessment, supervision, and the backup of both your partner, and the physician and clinical staff on the other end of the telephone or radio. Soloing at the roadside provides neither you nor your patient with these safeguards.

Firearms owners are likely acquainted with the “gun shop commando”, classically braying about the bogus “shoot 'em and drag 'em inside” philosophy of home violence management. Likewise, you might consider the existence of the “parlor paramedic”, who seems to reason something like, ”wait until the Schumer hits the fan, and I'll come out of the closet, birthin' babies and saving lives!”

In order to entertain this fantasy, you will need the tools of the trade. Medications are not without risks, do not keep forever, and are expensive. Additionally, there is the issue of convincing a physician that he or she ought to prescribe for you and that you can differentiate your Barneyfrank (ass) from a hole in the ground. If the expense is no problem for you because you have money to burn, please see me after class! If you think that the utility of your medication stash outweighs the other concerns, please contemplate these points: 1) In the absence of a catastrophe the likes of which America has never seen, it is both illegal and immoral to withhold professional medical care required by an ill or injured person. 2) During Schumeresque times, it is unlikely that the infrastructure will be in service which allows the delivery of complex, highly skilled care to those in need. Particularly, you will not have access to that infrastructure, and (if you have your head screwed on straight) you will have no desire to perform skills you are not trained to do, in the midst of a disaster, upon your vulnerable, hurting and injured loved ones.

By way of example, I have 30 yeas of EMS and nursing experience (in ICU, CCU, and ER), as well as licensure as a Physician's Assistant. I have used Dopamine, along with other invasive therapies, innumerable times to support the blood pressure of critically ill or injured patients. Dopamine has potent effects upon the heart, among other systems, and these effects are monitored by a cardiac monitor. I found a Zoll Automatic Cardiac Defibrillator, after a brief internet search, for $3,000, which appears after a casual review to allow monitoring. The question, however, is whether you can make sense of the tracing the monitor displays, identify adverse changes in cardiac rhythm, and respond appropriately. Additionally, do you know the adverse effects Dopamine may have, and how they must be managed? If not, you have no business trifling with it. I have done all these things for years in my Nursing practice, and I do not have Dopamine in my personal stores. You need to assume the risks you both understand and are comfortable with. I am reluctant to assume this risk for myself and my family.

My bias toward trauma derives from the fact that the stabilization and management of the medical patient, in contrast to the trauma patient, calls for assessments and interventions that I generally do not find appropriate outside of the hospital or advanced life support ambulance. Determining the source of the patient's distress will identify what treatment is required. While there are a few medical conditions that are responsive to basic life support interventions, I am not about to pretend that a few thousand words will equip you to make such judgments. Find an American Red Cross first aid class and master it. Better yet, become an EMT.

Just the other day, I came upon a rollover as my girlfriend and I were en route to attend some family function. There were half-a-dozen civilians clustered about, and things seemed well in hand. The first firefighter arrived shortly after me, and I deferred to him. Offering him wound care supplies, I was surprised to discover I could not find any gloves in my kit! Returning home, I undertook an inventory. Here is the result of that tally, and some discussion of my view of why each item belongs in my kit.

Training comes first. There is a story told of the early days of the Israeli state, when the emergency response planners had the budget required to train their personnel to stabilize and transport spine injured patients, or buy the splints (called backboards), but not both. The story relates that the planners elected to train their personnel, and subsequently noted a spine injured kibbutznik transported to the hospital by his comrades, secured effectively to an entire barn door.

I place a priority on training for several reasons. First, neither vermin nor adverse storage conditions have ever ruined training and rendered it unusable. Secondly, “they can have my training when they can pry it from my cold, dead mind”. Third, I have never ever (in my disorganized life) failed to pack my training. Fourth, there is nothing that will be displaced from my supplies in order to make room for my training. Fifth, in contrast to supplies, ability improves with use, and becomes more abundant when you share it with others.

Begin with CPR training. Three or four hours of your time will equip you with the skill that may save a life in the here-and-now. You will gain an introduction to patient assessment, and learn some of he fundamentals of first aid, and whatever dilemma confronts you, your response cannot fail to be more effective with some training to guide you. Effectiveness saves lives.

Look into local outlets for first aid training. The American Red Cross, the National Safety Council, your local community college, as well as perhaps others offer credible training which may serve as an introduction to further studies. The justification for the further expenditure of additional hours may be found in the preceding paragraph. Additionally, if you are more acquainted with what the medical conversation is about, the health care decisions made with regard to yourself and your family will be less mysterious to you, and better informed decisions tend to be better decisions. The better your health, the better your chances of coming out the other side of Schumer times intact, and therefore the better chance of bringing your family with you, likewise unscathed.

Consider EMT schooling. You will learn more emergency care skills (a good thing), and an introduction to elementary anatomy and pathophysiology (how things go wrong in illness and injury). Such education gives you the opportunity to be a more informed participant in your health care decisions, and that is itself a good thing, as well.

SELECTING YOUR CASE
It really doesn't matte what sort of container you employ for your emergency supplies, so long as it meets your particular needs for security, identification, accessibility, protection and convenience.

Some fire departments use plastic “totes” to organize supplies required for specific types of calls. For example, haz-mat supplies are packed inside specific totes, and the top secured with a cable tie or some such device. An inventory is attached to the top (sealed in plastic) to identify what is inside, as well as out dates of time sensitive components. When properly closed, such bins are drip and dust resistant, resist crushing or jumbling of the contents, and can be convenient to carry when not overfilled. On the other hand, they will not conveniently fit beneath a vehicle seat, may be unwieldy to retrieve and place into action, and may get buried beneath other stuff in a trunk or truck box.

Others of my acquaintance use ammo cans, or plastic fishing tackle boxes. These are generally more convenient to shlep about (unless your tastes run along the lines of a 20 mm ammo can) and are more drip/dust/duh! resistant than the tubs mentioned above. On the other hand, they may overturn with disappointing ease, spilling your supplies into whatever noxious fluid is abundant on your particular scene.

I use a green canvas musette type bag. It is not water resistant, is not neatly compartmentalized, and does not have an IR glint Star of Life embroidered upon it. On the other hand, I know how my stuff inside is organized, it is convenient to sling over my shoulder when the scene requires that I do so, and the local military surplus store will sell me another for $10-20 when that becomes needful. It will fit beneath a van seat, or in a tub in my trunk, and I can work out of it when I have it slung.

IN THE TOP, OR IN AN OUTSIDE POCKET
Items that I am likely to require promptly are either in the outside pocket or immediately inside the top flap of the bag. These are things that I do not want to be fumbling for as I approach a scene. I will not list what might be considered “everyday carry” items like pocket knife, flashlight(s), CS spray, sidearm, and a cell phone. While these tools help keep the rescuer from becoming a victim of an ambush laid for a 'Good Samaritan” , particularly when employed in concert with a Condition Orange mindset. (I did mention I started out in Detroit, didn't I?) These items do not seem to me to be rescue/first aid/emergency medical tools.

First up is several pairs of gloves. (well, now, anyhow!) I am allergic to latex, so I have nitrile gloves. Current practice is to wear gloves anytime you might reasonably anticipate exposure to blood or other bodily fluids: tears, urine, stool, saliva, gastric contents, or any other moist, body-origin material you might imagine (and perhaps a few you might not!). I have so thoroughly incorporated this into my life that I get uneasy caring for my own children (or, at my advanced age, grandchildren!) without gloving first. These are in a zip-lock bag, safety pinned (now!) just inside the top flap of my green bag.

The upside to all this is that scrupulous gloving and thorough hand washing have so far proven highly effective at preventing the spread of the most common blood-borne infections. Diseases spread via airborne droplets (for example, Legionnaires disease), of course, require additional precautions. Others are spread by organisms coming to rest upon environmental surfaces and then accessing a vulnerable host (just like you and I are vulnerable hosts to “the common cold”) by means of unconsciously touching our faces after touching a contaminated surface. For myself, after 30 plus years of patient contact the worst I have brought home has been an occasional upper respiratory infection due to my conscientiously applying the glove/hand wash/hands away from my face regimen.

The next item I'll feel a burning need to have in my hands is a bag-valve-mask (BVM). This is a manually operated ventilation tool. It is employed by sealing the mask over the unbreathing patient's face, squeezing the self inflating bag, and thereby forcing air into your patient's lungs. Repeat at a rate of approximately 12-20 times a minute. Advantage: no kissing strangers, required for mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. You are able to maintain situational awareness of such things as evolving environmental hazards (like leaking gasoline), or indicators of your patient's improving condition (...he said, thinking positively!). On the downside, using a BVM is difficult in untutored hands. It is easier (compared to mouth-to-mouth) to force air into the patient's stomach, which will elicit vomiting. Aside from the aesthetic issues this presents, vomiting in a profoundly unconscious patient (such as one so unconscious as to have stopped breathing) presents the opportunity for aspiration into the lungs of that which has been vomited, which may be deadly.

Training in use of a BVM will be part of the EMT class I mentioned earlier. I'll wait here while you go find out when your local community college or rescue squad will be having their next class. Plan on being a part of that class. You will be making your community, and thereby your family, safer.

You can buy your own, and Gall's will ding your for around $15 for a disposable model. In the hospital, we use these once and discard them. You might choose to meticulously clean yours and re-use it. Your local rescue squad or ambulance may shop locally, and you might want to do likewise. Ya know, if you were to volunteer with your local rescue squad, you might be able to obtain things like this at your agency's cost. All this on top of the good karma from helping to provide a necessary community service. And,, besides, becoming known to the locals (police included) as one of “the good guys”. Your phone book likely will provide the contact information you require. I'll still be here when you get back.

One of the adjuncts to using a BVM is called an oral airway. Oral airways come in sizes, which may be selected according to the size of the patient. Their purpose is to hold the flaccid tongue of a profoundly unconscious patient forward, so that it does not sag against the rear of the throat and thereby block the passage of air into and out of the lungs. The problem it may trigger is, should your patient be other than profoundly unconscious, he or she will vomit. Among other disasters this may cause, the enzymes from the stomach, designed to digest proteins, will (unsurprisingly) begin to digest the proteins found in the delicate tissues of the air sacs (alveoli) of the lungs, with effects you are likely to be able to imagine on your own. Very Bad Thing. [JWR Adds: Plastic airways usually come in sets of six sizes, and usually color-coded these days, available for less than $5 per set on eBay. Buy a couple of sets. Someday you may be very glad that you did!]

Another way to fail when employing an oral airway is to bunch up the patient's tongue in the rear of the throat. This blocks air flow, strangling your patient. This device must be restricted to only profoundly unconscious patients, and only if you are schooled in its use. You can buy them individually, or in sets. Before shipping, they go for around $5.00/set. You might elect to buy them one at a time, but at $5 a pop, they aren't a particularly major investment.

When I'm confronted by an actively bleeding patient, I reach for a Carlyle dressing. Mine are the old style The Carlyle iteration includes muslin (cloth) ties to secure as any other tied bandage. The 21st century version is called an Israeli Dressing, and is available from various sources. (see my shopping list/spreadsheet for representative sources) It consists of a sterile dressing incorporating an elastic bandage to secure the dressing to the wound. Should you shop gun shows or surplus stores for your equipment, be wary of old dressings. They present potential issues of failed sterility as well as mustiness or mildew occasioned by improper storage or imperfect packaging. The contemporary Israeli Battle Dressings are available from Cheaper Than Dirt or from Gall's for $9.00 or $10.00 each.

Another wound care product is QuikClot . This is a mineral product, bound to a dressing, which enhances clotting, and thereby slows and limits blood loss in the bleeding patient (common in trauma, surprisingly enough!) One article (QuikClot Use in Trauma for Hemorrhage Control: Case Series of 103 Documented Uses. Journal of Trauma-Injury Infection & Critical Care. 64(4):1093-1099, April 2008.) reflected the occurrence of burns in several patients, but the manufacturer's web site reports that changes in packaging and delivery system have addressed this issue.

An alternative you might consider is Celox. It appears perhaps to be a reasonable alternative to QuikClot. It is derived from shrimp shells, although it seems to not produce allergic reactions in folks otherwise allergic to seafood. I have no personal experience with either product, but the reports are interesting. This goes on my “further research” list!

The preceding items are to be found in the outside pocket or very top of my jump kit. I don't want to be searching for them when I feel the need for them Right Freaking Now. Beneath the don't-wanna-wait-for-them items, I have supplies of somewhat lesser immediacy. These allow me to assess the situation in greater detail, or address issues that may come to light that are of less time sensitivity.

Triangular Bandages are useful for slings of injured arms, or may be folded into narrow strips and then used as a means to secure splints or dressings (as “cravat bandages”). If we were to consider them as a backpacker might, they may be used as expedient dust masks, bandannas, head coverings, or washcloths. I buy muslin by the yard at Wal-Mart, and cut it from one corner to the other, forming (surprise!) 2 triangles approximately a yard on a side. I keep 6 to 8 in my kit.

Bandage shears are the most obvious of the prehospital medic's tools. You can go with Lister style bandage scissors, often found as “nurse's scissors”, or the plastic and steel “super shears”. Prices range from $4.00 and up. Frequently employed to trim dressings to the proper size, cut away clothing from wounds, and to cut bandages.

Did you ever notice that a tongue blade/tongue depressor is almost exactly the width of a finger? And just a bit longer than your Mark 1, Mod 0 finger? Exactly like it were designed to be a finger splint, isn't it? In addition, should you tape three of them together one on top of the other, you have a dandy tool for tightening that “Spanish windlass” you are going to learn about, when your EMT class teaches you how to apply and improvise a traction splint for a fractured femur (thighbone). Finally, if you are unhappy at the thought of wiggling somebody's fractured femur (broken thighbone) so you may place ties (cravats: remember them?) for a splint, tongue blades are thin, stiff, and very helpful at limiting the wiggling as you place ties beneath the broken bone of your choice. I keep a handful handy.

You can pay a couple of bucks for them at the corner pharmacy, or you might be able to talk your way into several for free, like when you are volunteering at some public service event with your local volunteer fire department, emergency medical service, or amateur radio club.

Stethoscope/Blood Pressure Cuff. A stethoscope allows you to hear the sounds made as air moves into and out of the lungs, and note changes from normal. These changes might occur because your patient has a collapsed lung, or has pneumonia, or heart failure. When you get that far into your EMT class (hint, hint), you will learn how to evaluate these changes, and what sort of treatment decisions you ought to consider when you notice them. In addition, you will learn how to measure, and interpret, your patient's blood pressure.

I am certain you will know somebody who will go out and get the cardiology deluxe stethoscope, with the multi disc cd player, mag wheels, and gold trim. Do not join them in this folly. Spend $10-40 at the same place the local student nurses get their stethoscopes, and spend the difference on your spouse, whose enthusiastic support you will require, anyhow. If you can show your spouse how your expenditure of family money and time on supplies, education, and volunteering promote values that you both agree upon, the both of you will thereby make your family more crisis resistant. If your family is more crisis resistant, then you are not only NOT a drag on community emergency services during an emergency, you all might even be an affirmative community asset during bad times. That cannot fail to be a Good Thing when you get to explain yourself to The Jewish Carpenter. Me, I'm going to require all the help I can get. I'm volunteering!

Adhesive tape (1 inch, 2 inch) secures dressings, holds loose ends of bandages, and provides a single use notepad (tear off a length, tape it to your thigh, and jot notes. You will not lay it down somewhere to be forgotten). If you listen to some friendly and knowledgeable athletic trainer, you can learn how to use it to support sprained ankles or knees if the preferred treatment (rest, ice, elevation) is not possible. Before you employ these tricks, bear in mind that physicians frequently cannot differentiate a sprain from a fracture, even after an x-ray. In my view, except under the most dire possible circumstances, walking on a fractured (or sprained) extremity is a Very Bad Thing. Two rolls each are at hand when I open my green bag.

I keep 12 to 15 Gauze pad, sterile, 4x4 in my kit. I employ them as eye pads, padding beneath splints, or as (oddly enough) dressing for wounds. Occasionally I encounter a wound bleeding so enthusiastically that a couple of gauze pads will be overwhelmed. Fortunately, I haven't come across such a wound off duty, but in the hospital we use a “boat” of sterile gauze. This is a plastic tray of ten sponges in one pack. The tray also may be used as a clean basin for wound irrigation/cleansing solution. In the hospital we use sterile saline, you may elect to use the water from your retort pouch, or fresh from the bottle as you purchased it for storage. I would certainly give it some thought.

If you happen to be the purchasing agent for your entire survival community, ambulance service, or the entire Boy Scout Council, you might find the case price from Galls to be a useful bit of information. 1200 sterile 4x4 pads for $89.99 works out to around 7.5 cents each.

Triple padding/ABD padding, sterile, 5x9 inch. These multiple layer absorbent dressings are designed for wounds producing a lot of drainage of either blood or other fluid. They are my first choice for a bulky dressing or splint padding. I keep 6 in my kit. The frugally minded may note that “sanitary napkins” are designed to absorb drainage, are “medically aseptic”, and are available nearly everywhere.

And, on a related note, tampons from the “feminine hygiene” shelf at your local store are also constructed to absorb fluids, and contain them. Should you confront a penetrating wound, “tamponading” a wound is a widely known concept among inhabitants of the medical world. Packing such a wound with a tampon using sterile technique might prove to be life saving, and provide hemorrhage control options not otherwise available. (http://snopes.com/military/tampon.asp)

Roller Gauze, 4 inch is typically used to secure a dressing (see Gauze Sponge, above) to the wound. I pack 6 in my kit, and they have “found careers” as bandages to secure dressings, securing splints when I run out of triangular bandages, and upon occasion as packing/dressings for vigorously bleeding wounds. In fact, when one is employed as the dressing, and another as the bandage, I can not only dress the wound, but also (since the bulky roll provides a pressure point) apply direct pressure to the bleeding site. This provides an alternative to the Carlyle or Israeli Dressing, cited above

Vaseline Gauze (sterile, 3x9 inch) is intended to seal wounds penetrating the chest, in order to prevent collapse of your patient's lung(s). When you seal the defect in the chest wall, your patient will not draw in air through the wound when s/he inhales, and thereby not fill the space between the lung and the chest wall (the pleural space) with air. When you can avoid this, inhaling draws in air through the mouth, trachea and bronchi, and that inflates your lungs, and we think that is a good thing. Myself, I pitch the gauze and tape three sides of the foil package, sterile side towards the wound, forming a flutter valve sort of effect. In this way I allow excess pressure in the pleural space to vent to atmosphere (stopping further lung collapse, I hope), and seal the hole when the pressure inside the chest is less than atmospheric pressure (like when the patient inhales). The only way left to equalize that pressure is by inflating the lungs, already described with approval above.

The other use for Vaseline gauze is when my lips or hands are dry, in which case I use the Vaseline to remedy that little problem.

We all can think of uses for the common elastic bandage, 4 inch and 2 inch. Two inch is useful for sprains of your wrist or thumb, and the 4 inch is used for an ankle twist/sprain. In addition, I can use them to secure a splint (there is that rule of threes, seen in other posts on this blog, again!), as the “swathe” part of a sling-and-swathe to immobilize an injured shoulder, or as part of a pressure bandage over a dressed wound that does not want to stop bleeding.

Large Bulb Syringe (for which you can substitute a turkey baster) functions as an expedient means of removing fluids from the airway of someone who is not managing to do so effectively on their own. It will not work nearly as well as a battery powered or pump action suction, such as you might find on your local rescue squad rig, but it won't cost you $50-$60 (for the manually pumped version) either. Second best is superior to nothing.

Mylar “Space blankets” protect you or your patient from the hypothermia-inducing effects of the wind, slowing heat loss. Generally colored bright orange on one side and silver on the other, there are signaling opportunities as well. In a pinch, you can improvise shelter from one or two. Amazon sells the "Space Brand" blanket inexpensively. Equip your jump kits, and each member of your family with one or two.

Any accident so severe as to convince suspicious old me (alumnus of Detroit's EMS) to stop and offer assistance will not be fixed with a couple of Adhesive Bandages (aka “Band Aids”). I have six in my jump kit, two entire boxes at home (and parceled out among my camper, car, and household kits).

I keep a couple of Ice Packs around, as assorted adventures may bring on modest orthopedic injuries. Ice is helpful for strains, sprains, or overuse of an over aged joint (...not that I would know anything, firsthand, about that...). Choices include “instant cold packs”, or that old picnicker's standby, a zip lock bag full of ice from the cooler.

Either option has drawbacks. I do not generally drive about with a cooler of ice at hand, although when camping I am likely to do so. Instant cold packs are kind of fragile, and you might find, when you go to place one in service, that you have a leaking mess on your hands. On the other hand, they are more likely to be there when you want one.

The foregoing lists the contents of my “jump kit”. I keep one kit in my vehicle, and another at home. In addition, there are Subordinate Kits, kept in camper, car and home, for lesser sorts of occasions. I have customized each by adding more dressings, triangular bandages, roller gauze, and gloves. In addition, I improved over the baseline “Wally World” $15 first aid kit, by adding zip lock bags of various household medications. I labeled each bag with the name of the med, the out date of that particular bottle, directions for use, and date of packing. I made my selections by inspecting my own medicine cabinet, and pondering which meds I had wished I had kept handy the last time I was out camping, for example. Most everything commonly needed is therefore in the Camper Kit, Car Kit, or House Kit.

The jump kits are reserved for “Holy Fertilizer!” sorts of events. They are not mere “boo-boo boxes”. Reserved in this way, I will not find myself hunting (and swearing) in crisis, as I need this or that widget, which some child (or adult) has used, and not restocked.

LONGER TERM CONSIDERATIONS
Some of us might contemplate longer term medical preparations. For those, I recommend Dr. Jane Orient's article. Once I get beyond the 20 year old pricing, the are only a couple of improvements I could suggest. One is in the arena of recently developed antibiotics (as in quinolones). Even in that light, it seems to me to be a very good basis for developing a longer term medical kit (and training plan) for your particular circumstances.

Another substitution I would make, is to delete surgical masks, and substitute NIOSH N-95 masks. I found a carton of MSA Safety Works No. 10005403, Pack of 20 Harmful Dust Respirator Model 10005043 for $18.97/each carton at Home Depot. You may find similar products locally.

Additionally, I would add loratidine (you may recognize the brand of Claritin) as a non-sedating antihistamine. (Personally, I would prefer my personnel pulling OP duty to be non-sedated.) I'd also add the most frugal of the following : ranitidine, famotidine, cimetidine, in lots of 1,000 tabs, as a superior stomach acid blocking medication, to supplement the antacid Dr. Orient suggested over 20 years ago. As the “big gun” for acid stomach problems or GERD, I'd lay in a supply of Prilosec OTC. This class of stomach medication is the yardstick against which all others are presently measured.

If you are planning establishing a longer term medical cache, it is imperative that you do so only in concert with a physician, or other personnel licensed to prescribe. The guidance you will receive will help you avoid causing more illness than you relieve. Medications are a double bitted axe, and may cut on the upstroke as well as on the downstroke. Be aware.

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Monday June 22 2009

Letter Re: It Will Be Skills, Not Gear That Will Count in TEOTWAWKI

JWR,
Skill is critical, parts and tools can be improvised.

While I agree with C.A.Y.: "... the combination of skills plus tools plus parts is what's needed", there are important exceptions. In some south asia villages, a highly skilled artificer [with a few assistants] can create a self-loading pistol, per day, without parts, and only the most primitive tools of drills, belt sanders and files. The steel is recycled from wrecked cars and trucks. The skill is what makes this possible. This town near the Khyber Pass makes one thousand guns per day. Look at minute marks 3:33 and 3:46 for the ammo and gun fabrication.

During WW2, Allied POWs [in German Stammlagers and Oflags] fabricated metal cutting lathes, shortwave radio receivers, photographic darkroom developing equipment and offset printing for counterfeit documents - all without the appropriate tools or parts - it was all improvised. The skill with working with the original equipment back home showed the way to the objective.

Conversely, in my fully-equipped machine shop, I have seen freshly graduated mechanical technologists and machine tool operators wreck instruments and equipment, ruin dies, moulds and tooling - and occasionally remove necessary appendages from their bodies. It was the skill [and common sense] that was lacking.

Skill is critical, parts and tools can be improvised. - Richard S.

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Five Letters Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009

Jim,
I live in a rural farming area east of the Mississippi and can tell you that cutting a gate or fence would be a very bad choice (in this area).  In 99% of the cases you would already be on private property, so cutting the fence or gate would be considered a “hostile” act.   Most of the folks I know would shot first and ask questions later . . . these folks all hunt, so they are not likely to miss . . . and trust me they know when someone is on their property.   When the police are called, you will find they are a relative or friend of the local (we are very rural) . . . and the “strangers” will be just “bagged and tagged”.    If you must cross a gated or fenced area, stop, honk your horn, jump up and down, o anything to get the property owners attention, he is probably watching anyway . . . who knows you might turn out to be an asset to him instead of a liability.

I do not want to make this sound all negative.  We all know that living at your retreat full-time is the best option, but circumstances may make that impossible for you; your job or just the finances to make that kind of a move.   The real question is do you believe bad things can and will happen?    If so what are you going to do that is practical and realistic?    “Borrowing” a plane might be a cool idea, but it is far from realistic. Several have already commented on this point and I happen to be a retired Naval aviator with more hours and experience than I care to remember, and flying to my retreat would be the last option I’d consider (we live at our retreat full-time, but do travel).    If “your” plan involves some exotic way of escaping the metropolis you live in then you are planning to stay too late (that includes having to take back roads)!   You will have to establish “trigger events” that make the decision to execute “your” depart plan (what those trigger events are up to you, based on your analysis and understanding of events.) If you wait until it is obvious to everyone then you are “way too late”.   And that is the rub: are you willing to give up your comfortable city life for a survival existence, on a “chance” that “this is it”?   If the answer is “no” then best of luck to you, you will need it.  If the answer is “yes” then you had better figure out a way to preposition your items, at a location that involves more than just your family . . . and then maybe you will have a fighting chance to survive the transition.   None of this is easy, but if you really want to provide for and protect your family then what other options do you have. You can rely on the government to see to your basic needs (it’s called being a refugee), or you can do all within your power to provide realistic options for them yourself. The choice is yours. - RH in Virginia


Dear SurvivalBlog Readers:
I want to preface my comments by saying that I have the utmost respect for JWR, his work, and all the readers and contributors to this site. I understand and hold close the essential tenets of independence and preparedness, living as I have my whole life in the heart of Southern California earthquake country.

That said, the recent string of essays about escaping a city when TSHTF is complete nonsense. The thought that if you get out early you’ll leave everyone else behind is fantasy thinking. The fact is that in such a situation just about everyone will be thinking about getting out and many will act on that impulse. That means that EVERY freeway, EVERY back road, EVERY intersection, and EVERY town will soon be filled with hoards of roaming people, all of whom will be unprepared, scared, and desperate. You might – MIGHT – actually get a jump the situation and beat the hoards out of the city but a human tidal wave will be right behind you, spreading out in all directions, many thousands of which will be heading right to wherever it is you’re going.

Further, a good percentage of the roaming hoards will be street criminals and gang members. Many will be military vets who had advanced training in tactics and equipment and they’ll all be heavily armed – in many cases, better equipped than the local law enforcement. In the short-to-medium timeframe, these groups will be the most dangerous threat and sooner or later they’ll be coming to your hideout. I don’t care how many rounds of ammo you’re carrying on the way or how much you’ve got stashed if you actually make it to your refuge. No matter how much you’ve got it won’t be enough, especially if you get in a firefight with a group that’s shooting back with high caliber, armor-piercing ordnance. And let’s not forget about the really heavy stuff – RPGs or plain old dynamite that they’ll find along the way. If you look like you’ve got equipment and food, you’re going to be a target, simple as that.

JWR is right – the safest strategy is to move away now and get established long before the crisis hits, preferably far enough away that it’s just too difficult for city hordes to get to you. (A tip of my hat to Frank B – 15 miles from the nearest asphalt road.) You’ll still be in danger from unprepared locals and groups that do make it out to the frontier but the farther away and better prepared the better.

Meanwhile, what about the millions of us who can’t relocated and are stuck in the cities? After 30 years of survival thinking related to earthquake preparedness I determined that the only effective strategy is to stay put and lay low. Don’t fire up your generator, blast your radio, and light up your house will the oil lamps you so carefully stashed for just the very event. In fact, leave all your survival equipment stashed for a couple of days until the first big wave of refugees passes by. Camouflage your place and your family to look like you’re destitute – that you have nothing, just like everyone else. With a bit of luck, the hordes will pass you by and you can then join up with neighbors, pool your equipment and resources, and develop a defense strategy. Meanwhile, whatever governmental resources exist will be directed at the cities first so there’s a likelihood that some form of law enforcement will be imposed. It’s the rural areas that will be the most lawless and there won’t be anybody out there to help enforce the peace, at least not for a very long time. Once the peace is secured in your city you can implement your long-term strategies of off-grid living, food production, bartering, and practical skills - machinery repair, welding, auto and home maintenance - that will always be in demand.

One final thought – as mentioned so often on the site, survival skills have a very steep learning curve and there is no substitute for hands-on experience and training. Read the books but then go practice! Can you find, set up, and operate your equipment in the pitch dark at 3 AM? If you’ve had a beer of two? Can your spouse, if you’re hurt? Can your kids if you’re not home? Have you ever eaten freeze-dried food? Can you take down and repair the Coleman stove? Bake biscuits? Operate a chain saw? Jury-rig a DC power cable from the car battery to your living space? Successful preparedness means that you continually ask – and answer – such questions. - Patrick C. in Southern California


James,
I think using an aircraft as a bug-out vehicle would not be a good idea. If you look back at the emergency following the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States, you'll remember that all planes were grounded. I a 9-11 situation a small aircraft flying low or even flying at all would attract unwanted attention. Probably in a bug-out situation in a aircraft you would have to leave early before things got hot and and you risk being forced down in a strange location or being shot down. Both not good options. On 9-11-2001 my wife and I were scheduled to fly home on a commercial airline at 13:30 from half way across the country. Needless to say we found we were grounded before we finished breakfast. When I heard the news we headed to the nearest electronic teller and withdrew as much cash as was allowed. Since we were traveling by air we were traveling light and had little survival gear and virtually no weapons. First we checked the trains and found they were all stopped, same for busses. I next zipped over to the local truck rental and reserved a rental truck for a one-way trip home with a credit card. After the truck reservation was secured I went to a local car dealer and secured financing for the purchase of a late model used SUV and put a small deposit down for them to hold the vehicle. Had I had my own plane I may very well have considered hedge hopping home and would more than likely not been allowed to refuel reroute and maybe risked being arrested if I did manage to land of my own accord.

Because of the help afforded us as total strangers stranded in a strange town, far from home, we moved to the area the following year and have lived here on our small farm at the end of the gravel road ever since. - P.B.

 

Jim,
I knew my letter regarding escape in a light plane would end up attracting the criticism of one or more experts on the subject... I'd like to address Larry in Pennsylvania's response.

First I'd like to point out that I never suggested using a Cessna 172 for anything. I merely mentioned that my father-in-law recently purchased one and that's what got me thinking about it. There are any number of light planes available, from ultralights to Cessna Caravans, and some are better suited to the task than others, depending on how far you need to go. I, for example, have friends who own a 450 acre ranch 250 miles from here. I could easily make it to their ranch in virtually any airplane without having to refuel.

I addressed some of Larry's points in my original letter. Yes, fuel is an issue, that's why I mentioned it. I think Larry might have misunderstood what I was saying. I was not suggesting putting autogas into any random airplane. There are a ton of light planes that have been STCed (Supplemental Type Certificate qualified) for autogas and many more with the same engines that could burn autogas but whose owners haven't asked for an STC. In a 1998 letter to the Experimental Aircraft Association (of which I'm a member), the FAA said "Autogas use has been extensively compared, tested, and analyzed. Autogas has been shown to be an acceptable alternative to avgas for the airplanes and engines approved for such use. Airplanes and engines approved for autogas use have met the FAA certification requirements for engine detonation, engine cooling, fuel flow, hot fuel testing, fuel system compatibility, vapor lock, and performance." More information and a copy of the letter above can be found at AviationFuel.org. What I suggested and what I'm suggesting now is research. Know ahead of time what your airplane can burn and either have it on hand or have solid plans for how to obtain it.

I also addressed Larry's concerns about overloading so I won't rehash that here other than to say again that yes, payload is an issue but it can be planned out ahead of time. I thought I was very clear that leaving by airplane was for those who had pre-positioned supplies [at a retreat].

As for obstructed runways or runways cluttered by looting, etc., I seriously doubt it in any realistic situation that would require emergency evac by air. Here is a perfectly realistic situation: Terrorists bomb the nuclear power plant that sits 150 miles upwind of my (very large) city. A fallout cloud is approaching at 15 miles per hour. The authorities screw around for four hours and then declare an evacuation of the entire city. We've got at most six hours to evacuate a huge city and its suburbs - a feat that the Gulf Coast cities can't pull off in two days! Interstates immediately become parking lots and before long are totally stopped by broken down cars. A mere fraction (5%) of the population decides to take state highways and county roads - that's 315,000 people - and the same thing happens to those roads. Whatcha gonna do?

In this scenario, do you think looters are really going to head for the airports to steal gas and oil? I doubt it would even occur to them, especially in the hours immediately after a disaster. They'll be in Best Buy and Wal-Mart stealing televisions and beer - we've already seen it happen!

My airplane suggestion was laced with caveats and the weather was certainly one of them. During many parts of the year, large parts of the country enjoy nice weather with only isolated storms. You don't need forecasts and radar to avoid bad weather. God gave you eyes and the ability to make a 180-degree turn. Pilots did it for years before these services were widely available. Further, except over congested areas, there are few places where you'll have no options for an off-field landing. Have plans 'B' and 'C' constantly in your mind. When I was flying my solo cross-countries, there was never a moment when I hadn't identified somewhere I could land if the engine quit 'right now' - my instructor beat that into my head constantly. As Larry points out, an off-field landing could invite looters but remember, the emergency is only hours old and people aren't hungry yet, and probably aren't desperate enough that the normally law-abiding become a danger.

As for Navaids such as VOR, ADF, and even GPS... Ever heard of a chart, a pencil, a stopwatch and a compass? It ain't rocket science. If the weather is good you don't need any outside help to get from A to B. Again. pilots did it for years before these were available - and for many years after, since many couldn't afford to equip their aircraft with fancy gadgets and nav radios.

Finally, once again I'll say this is a very unlikely scenario. If it happens it depends on having good weather and solid pre-planning, at least to the extent possible. The wisest course in my hypothetical situation above would be to bug out by car at the first hint of a problem - before the full extent of the problem was revealed to the masses. But if for some reason the news was delayed or something (car problems, missing family member) delayed your departure for even a few hours, leaving by car would be impossible. At that point my "Plan B" starts looking better than radiation sickness, despite some well-identified problems and risks. It's all about options. I think keeping options open is important. - Matt R.

JWR,
An important note to remember if one plans to use an aircraft during some type of emergency is that the control of the National Airspace System may have been handed over to the military. If that is the case, and I think it would be as the government attempted to maintain control of things as the cascade of events progressed into TEOTWAWKI, something called SCATANA (Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids) could be implemented. This plan closes down all aircraft operations save a few fixed wing fighter interceptors under the direct control of the National Command Authority. Here’s the bottom line. Under SCATANA if you fly, without positive control from the right folks, you die. No warning, no identification passes. An example of how serious the blanket authority is enforced is illustrated by the instructions given to a USAF C-130 on 9-11-01. This aircraft, full of soldiers from one of America’s front line Divisions was over the Great Plains on an exercise. They were ordered to land at a small municipal airport immediately. These soldiers, and they weren’t just Privates, ended up renting a bus for the day long ride back to their unit. Agree desperate times may call for desperate measures but ensure you have adequate information to make the decisions. As always, planning is the key ingredient for success. Using an airplane is a possible Get Out of Dodge solution, especially if used early on in the event. Just know all the second and third order effects. Keep up the good work. Excellent site - Redcatcher21

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Thursday June 18 2009

Two Letters Re: It Will Be Skills, Not Gear That Will Count in TEOTWAWKI

Jim:
I would like to whole-heartedly second Chris M’s article that skills are more important than stuff. A wide basis of knowledge provides you and your family new options as you develop courses of action to solve a specific problem during a crisis. While I’ve been stuck as a suburbanite in the Washington area for the last two years, I’ve exploited my access to military and civilian training to more than make up for my vulnerability. I’ve joined local weapon/hunting ranges, significantly improving my pistol, rifle and bow skills. I’ve become certified as a Level I Combatives Instructor. I’m scheduled to attend EMT training and certification in September. I’m getting my first batch of vegetables out of my garden in a few weeks….and then I’ll start some canning. To top it all off, I’ve gotten a basic workshop set up and I’m doing my best to do all my own small repairs. In the last two weeks, I’ve fixed problems with my car, my lawn mower and then my house. Hunting, well, that will probably be next year.

Besides the obvious benefit of saving money, I want to emphasize the feeling of self-empowerment every time I solve a problem myself. Sure, nothing goes right the first time, but I learn a lot and I do get it done (my wife would add the work “eventually” here). I recommend re-reading Mr. Kilo's “Letter Re: Learning the Details of Self-Sufficiency” and his description of the “conscious competence learning model.” It’s all about working towards self-reliance as much as possible. After twenty-plus year in the Army as a leader and supervisor using “soft skills”, I am working hard to build up many of the practical “hard skills” that Chris already has. Hats off to you Chris! (OBTW everyone, don’t forget physical fitness!) - Conn


Sir,
A friend of mine reminds me that skills are important, but also are tools. Hard to dig a hole without a shovel.

As a practicing locksmith, I discovered during a service call, that the combination of skills plus tools plus parts is what's needed. I can go to a locksmith call, and leave my hole saw home. Can't install deadbolts. Or, I can have my van, but not the right lock. And many people have tools and locks, but can't do the job. - C.A.Y.

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Friday June 12 2009

Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009, by Bill in Chicagoland

I think as a boy my favorite stories were always about epic journeys or quests. I always saw myself as the lone hero; bravely making his way through a barren landscape overcoming impossible obstacles and having fantastic adventures along the way. As preppers I think many of us still believe that WTSHTF our trip to “Get out of Dodge” will be an adventure such as those we read in books. I’m afraid however; the reality will be much grimmer than we can imagine. I fear that it will be more like The Road by Cormac McCarthy or the recent novel One Second After by William R. Forstchen , than anything else.

I live in the Chicago metropolitan area, yes far behind enemy lines so to speak, and have been a prepper for most of the last 10 years. Like many of us I must live in a big city because of my job. I need money to survive. Living here is no big deal if you learn to ignore the local politics. My kids are grown and I have no long-term attachments here. If the world falls to pieces I always felt I could leave in an instant. I have the requisite pick-up truck, keep it full of fuel, pre-positioned much of my supplies with my son at a relatively safe location in a small town (population 5,000) about 600 miles from here. I’ve got my G.O.O.D. bag packed and I’m ready to go when ever things go south. Or am I ready?

Let’s review my bug-out plan. Wait a second, I have no plan! This blinding flash of the obvious hit me as I was stuck in rush-hour traffic last Friday evening on my way to my son’s. It took me nearly three hours to get from my apartment on the far north side of the city to I-80 on the far south side. This was the route I assumed I would take to skedaddle. Think about that; I was on Interstate highways the whole time, leaving at 8:00 PM, and it still took me nearly three hours to go less than 80 miles. What’s really scary is that I was thinking all along how light the traffic was. I had no alternative routes in mind. Yikes!

Well, I’ve got to tell you this dear readers, that realization scared the bejeebus out of me. I was so unready to bug out. I had the stuff, the means, the mindset, etc., however, in a meltdown near-panic situation, I would’ve have been just one more member in a stream of hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the big city. This experience got me off my duff and forced to review what I will do when the next shoe drops in our ongoing economic nightmare.

I drew up a list of what was necessary to implement an action plan to “Escape from Chicago 2009”

1. Have a bug-out kit ready at all times
a. No problem I have a bug-out bag packed and ready to go. No last minute packing required. However; I hadn’t checked it in quite some time and when I did I found plenty of things to replace and replenish. Batteries lost their charge. Foods had expired. So did many of the common medications I packed. BTW, I also now have a 72 hour bag with me whenever I leave the house. You can never be sure when the worst thing you can imagine will happen.

2. Bring as much as you can with you.
a. Unlike many of you, I am not a man of any particular religious belief system. However, like most of you, I feel what makes us truly human beings is our compassion. I have to say that I don’t think while bugging out, I could look a frightened hungry child in the eyes and say no - nothing for you. Bring more than you need. If you don’t need to share then all the better; there’s more for you when you reach your destination.

3. No stopping to buy last minute items.
a. If it’s so bad you need to be bugging-out do you really think others don’t know that and are at that very minute stripping the local Wal-Mart clean? During the Los Angeles riots in 1992 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the grocery stores were near impossible to get to and if you could, it didn't matter; they were closed, or had been looted, and were empty. Also, shop owners, for example, may attempt to defend their stores with firearms (a la the Los Angeles Riots) and you don’t want to be caught in the crossfire. <Sarcasm on> I know, I know, Chicago has very strict gun laws so there won’t be any shooting except by a few gun-toting NRA/survivalist types <Sarcasm off>.

Finally, one interesting image comes to mind when I think of someone “liberating” goods from a Wal-Mart. During the Katrina emergency I recall seeing a video of a very obese woman wading through chest deep flood water, polluted with who knows what, holding a Dyson vacuum cleaner she had “liberated” over her head. No electricity, no home, no floor for that matter, but she had an expensive vacuum cleaner she had probably always wanted. Also, an interesting side note is the lack of bookstores looted.

4. Be sure to “Right size your bug-out vehicle
a. Simply put, don’t try to put a 10 gallon load in a 5 gallon bucket. Have a big enough vehicle to accommodate what you need to bring. If you have too much stuff, try to pre-position the bulkiest and heaviest items ahead of time. Be sure to leave enough room in your vehicle for people and pets. If you can’t pre-position the bulkiest stuff at the far end; consider renting storage space in some small town along your intended bug-out route. If necessary, keep a small trailer at the midpoint as well. Also remember that unexpected things may/can/will happen and you will need to change your plans accordingly. Therefore, only the non-essential “nice to have things”, not the essential for survival things, should be stored at waypoints along the way.

5. Don’t oversize your bug-out vehicle
a. A corollary to the above is having a vehicle that is too big. Big is not always better. We’ve all seen in footage of the highways during the Hurricane Katrina and Rita emergencies. Massive Gridlock. If/when you need to get off the highway onto a secondary road you’ll need to know if your Jumbo Superbago or SUV with the extra-long Airfoil trailer can negotiate any tight turns and/or low clearances on your Plan B, C, and D routes. I don’t even want to discuss how much fuel bigger vehicles consume.

6. Expect no fuel to be available along the way
a. My Dodge pickup gets 18 mpg fully loaded and I have a 22 gal fuel tank. For those of us who are lacking the math gene; that works out to 396 miles per tank and my destination is 600 miles away. Hmmm. That means I need an additional 10 gallons or so. Three options present themselves; get a larger fuel tank, carry gas cans, preposition fuel along the way.
b. Option one is too pricey $1,000 plus in my case.
c. Option two means using three 5 gallon gas cans. The problem here is that in order to be prepared to leave at any moment; I’d need to keep them all full. My biggest problem here is where to store them. As I mentioned, I live in an apartment so that’s really not an option I’d use except in the direst circumstances and I’d hate to leave them in my truck either. I’ll have to figure this one out.
d. Finally, Option three requires storing them at waypoints along the route. This is a so-so solution. The primary route may change and you can’t count on being able to get to it before you run out of fuel. Secondly, most storage faculties have a serious prohi