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Letter Re: Advice on Stocking Up on Batteries
Sir;
I was wondering: How many batteries should I store for all my radios, flashlights,
smoke detectors, and so forth? I'm also planning to get night vision goggles,
soon. I assume rechargeables, right? If so, what kind [of rechargeables], and
who has
the
best prices? - T.E.
in
Memphis.
JWR Replies: I recommend buying mainly nickel metal hydride
(NiMH) batteries. Stock up plenty of them, including some extras for
barter and charity. Unlike the older Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) technology, NiMHs
do not have
a "memory" effect.
(The diminished capacity because of the memory effect has always been one
of the greatest drawbacks to NiCds batteries.) The best of the breed are the latest Low Self Discharge (LSD) variants, such as the Sanyo Eneloop.
One discount supplier with a
very good selection that I can enthusiastically recommend is All-Battery.com.
They
also have great prices on "throw away" batteries, such a lithium CR-123s.
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Letter Re: Advice on Finding a Retreat Operations and Security Manual
Mr. Rawles,
I have been working on a retreat that I will be moving to later in the year.
Naturally, construction is taking up a large amount of my time. My family is
on-board for the retreat.
I need help in the area of an Operations and Security Manual. Is there anything
that you know of that would be a starting place rather than from the ground
up? I know there are a lot of things that I would miss out on if I started
[by myself] from the ground up, and not know it until it's too late.
I purchased the "Rawles
Gets You Ready" preparedness course and I would
have missed the boat on food storage if I did not have that as a reference.
Any direction would be appreciated. Thank you, - Craig in Arkansas
JWR Replies: I can't recommend a stand-alone reference, but
I can recommend an abbreviated version of the list of "musts" for
your retreat
bookshelf::
- The Encyclopedia of Country Living by Carla Emery. Sasquatch Books.
(Get the Ninth or later edition.) This book is 845 pages of valuable 'how
to' country survival knowledge.
- Nuclear War Survival Skills, by Cresson H. Kearney
- American Red Cross First Aid
- Where There is No Doctor, by David Werner
- Where There is No Dentist, by Murray Dickson
- Emergency War Surgery (NATO handbook) Dr. Martin Fackler, et al.
- The Ultimate Sniper, by Maj. John L. Plaster
And, at the risk of sounding self-serving, I also recommend my novel "Patriots:
Surviving the Coming Collapse". It provide a detailed
description of what might be needed to secure and operate a self-sufficient
rural retreat in a
protracted societal collapse.
« Letter Re: Ropes and Knot Tying |Main| Note from JWR: »
Retreat Security Planning and Analysis, by Tobin
Planning
The key to successful defense is defense in depth. In each layer of security
it’s imperative to have a full 360 degree protection afforded by
whatever measures, methods or technology you employ. Where it’s simply
not possible to secure your entire perimeter due to terrain or financial limitations,
it’s important to know what’s not completely protected, why it’s
not protected, and what it’s not protected against.
To plan your retreat security, start at the conceptual level. Define what is
to be protected. It might be your primary residence, or it might simply be
a cache containing bug-out supplies. Decide now what the parameters of a successful
defense look like (My food is untouched, 50% of my food is untouched, 25% of
my food is untouched, there are no bullet holes in my roof, etc…). Identify,
in writing, the consequences of failing to achieve the specified parameters.
Doing these things serves two purposes. First, it will help you do develop
the proper scope for your plan. Second, it will help you make some difficult
decisions regarding rules of engagement and alternatives planning.
Threat Assessment
Next, you have to consider what the threat looks like. The threats are specific
to your situation and you have to decide what level of threat you’re
willing or obtain the capacity to defend against. City dwellers might be faced
with threats like small bands of unskilled scavengers, or large groups of semi-skilled
gang members with reasonably good equipment, where the rural resident may be
more likely to encounter small groups of highly skilled woodsmen. Your specific
threat is entirely dependent on where you are, and who is there with you.
What the threat looks like will dictate how you prepare for it, and it’s
definitely not a “one size fits all” exercise. Decide now what
your rules of engagement are, and the level of threat that initiates a flight
response versus a fight response. A threat that is larger, more skilled, or
better equipped than what you prepared for will simply overwhelm your physical
security system. For example, a threat capable of long-distance attack may
never engage your security at all while still being able to attack people or
things at the resource. Concentrating on high-speed avenues of approach will
be appropriate for opportunistic or vehicle mounted threats, but completely
ineffective against the savvy scavenger with a modicum of hunting skill.
Failure to identify the threat correctly might result in too much security,
which could have been invested in food water or power, or too little security,
which will result in someone else gaining the benefit of your preparations.
Security System Design
All security systems have to incorporate three key fundamentals – detection,
delay, and response. You must be able to detect an intruder to be able to respond
to him, and you must be able to respond before he reaches the critical resource.
Detection
Intrusion detection ability comes in many forms, and they have been discussed
exhaustively here and elsewhere. Our primary concern is that the detection
capability is
effective, layered, and sustainable.
It’s imperative that your sensor system have a high probability of detection
with a low false alarm rate (FAR)--where we don’t know why the alarm
went off) and nuisance alarm rate (NAR)--where we know why the alarm went off,
but it wasn’t
something we wanted to detect). In other words, it’s good if the dog
barks, but not if it barks at everything… or nothing at all. It’s
also important to note that people are notoriously poor sensors. Studies conducted
by Sandia National Laboratory indicate that a human has a 2% probability of
detection under normal conditions, and that they are only effective for the
first 20 minutes of a watch. In other words, invest in technology if funding
and opportunity allow you to.
Using cumulative probability equations it’s fairly easy to determine
that several less than perfect sensors arrayed in series can be more effective
that one reasonably good sensor operating alone. One layer of sensors operating
at 90% probability of detection (PD) will cost a fortune and provide a 90%
cumulative probability of detection (PDC). Two layered sensors operating at
70% PD will offer a PDC of 91% at a lower total price:
PDC = 1-(1-PD1)(1-PD2)
= 1-(1-0.7)(1-.07)
= 1- (.09)
= 91%
If possible, place sensors at the perimeter of your property and again at a
defined line within your property. As shown in the example above, two layers
of average quality detection devices are more likely to detect a bad guy than
one layer of good sensors.
Sustainability of detection devices will be a key issue. If your detection
solution is electronic, you have to have means of providing electricity. Fortunately,
many technical solutions are designed to work off of 12 volt DC electric or
AA batteries and have low power requirements. It’s important that you
pay attention to the technical specifications when purchasing equipment. It’s
prudent to acquire replacement units or parts in the event that equipment malfunctions
or is damaged. Electronic sensors and associated support equipment may not
be within your budget. If this is the case, you may elect to go with more cost-effective
biological sensors (dogs, geese and others). They will have a reduced capacity
to warn you when intruders are coming because they can’t observe
your entire perimeter and they, like people, are easily distracted. They require
some level of preparation with respect to food and health care, though this
should be manageable for most budgets. The major drawback to biological sensors
is that while cost effective to purchase and maintain, the opportunity to keep
spares on the storage rack isn’t there. In the event that your biological
sensors are damaged, replacements may be difficult to obtain,
Delay
The objective of an effective delay system is to delay the bad guy from reaching
the objective long enough for the good guys to get dressed, grab their arms,
and engage him in a firefight. In practical terms, the bad guy’s timeline
from engaging the security system (encountering the outermost sensors) to execution
of objective is usually measured in seconds. Your job is to make it enough
seconds that you can respond before it’s over.
Delay can come from mechanical obstacles, or it can come from distance. The
effectiveness of an obstacle is measured in seconds. An 8 foot chain link fence
can be scaled by a human in 10 seconds, and so it’s worth 10 seconds
in timeline calculations. Distance is also accounted for in seconds, but is
dependant on the movement rate of the bad guy. 100 meters is worth 25 seconds
of delay if the bad guy is moving at 4 meters per second. Having a large property
can be an asset if your security system is set up properly, but is not, in
and of itself, an asset. The only barriers or distances that matter are those
that are observed by a sensor system.
Specific delay systems have also been discussed exhaustively here and elsewhere.
It’s important to note that barriers effective against one threat may
be far less effective against another. For example, anti-vehicle ditch works
will provide infinite delay for most vehicles but only a few seconds delay
for a bad guy on foot. On the other hand, a wide open field may delay a bad
guy on foot for minutes, while delaying a vehicle only a few seconds.
Response
The term Response, in the context of physical security, refers to the people;
the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP); and the equipment used to neutralize
the bad guys. Here’s where you have to ask yourself four questions:
1.) Do I have enough people to secure my critical resource?
2.) Do I have the right training?
3.) Do I have the right equipment?
4.) Do I have alternative plans?
Under optimum conditions, the US military operates under the assumption
that it takes 5.2 people to man each security post 24 hours a day, seven days
a
week. This assumption accounts for eight hour days, leaves of absence, sick
time, and all of the variables that mean people won’t be coming to work.
It’s
likely that you won’t have the manpower to support more than a post or
two under these conditions. The fewer people you have to man each post means
that, in order to maintain proper security, other tasks start to go undone.
If you have only two people per post, for example, that means 12 hour shifts
seven days a week with no rest – leaving no significant time for farming,
gardening, or other tasks. The alternatives are to accomplish other tasks while
abandoning security requirements, or to make arrangements before TSHTF to group
with other like-minded people to provide around the clock security.
Proper training for response forces is imperative. At a minimum, each person
must be familiar with the rules of engagement and the standard operation procedures
required to accomplish the mission. In many cases, this will mean that you
need to define what the mission is and how it’s to be done and put it
in writing. Additionally, you have to define the threshold for response and
the threshold for flight – put that in writing too. Every member of your
response force should be proficient in every weapon system employed. Ideally,
they’re all using the same weapon type, but in the event that they’re
not, they need to be able to use each other’s arms. Every member of the
security force should also be familiar with the terrain out to the maximum
effective range of their weapons. Advanced training with firearms is desirable,
but not always cost effective for groups of any size. If you ask, I’m
certain you’ll be provided with contact information for half a dozen
quality sources for firearms training.
Proper equipment and familiarity with the equipment breeds confidence in your
security forces. Ideally, all of your people will have identical gear. This
will ensure that spare parts are available and that weapon magazines are interchangeable
in a firefight. A proper kit will include firearms, ammunition, protective
gear, restraint devices, and non-lethal weaponry. Suitable arms for your security
forces will be of a weight and configuration that can be handled by all of
your personnel, chambers a round suitable for your purpose, and has a maximum
effective range that can reach the edge of your perimeter (unless you have
a really huge place!). The bottom line answer to the question “what’s
the best rifle?” is – the one your personnel can use effectively
to put rounds on target. Military security forces in garrison typically carry
120 rounds of 5.56mm ammunition when armed with an M16. Depending on your
arms, you may vary the load out, but in a firefight you really want as much
ammunition as you can carry on an “all the time” basis. Protective
gear, whether in the form of body armor or defensive fighting positions (DFPs),
should be able to handle impacts from any ammunition common in the retreat’s
region. For body armor, [NIJ]
level IV protection is desirable, though the type and manufacturer of the armor
is really a matter of taste. DFPs should
be constructed
with overhead cover – more for comfort than protection (unless the neighbors
have mortars) – and double thick sandbag walls. Restraint devices are
for the bad guys that make it through the initial firefight, or for the bad
guys who surrender before a firefight takes place. There are a number of items
that fit this category, though I won’t offer specific discussion about
any of them except to say that heavy duty wire ties work really well in this
capacity. Last, each of your personnel should have access to less-than lethal
control methods. Most likely, your rules of engagement don’t go directly
from harsh words to lethal firefight – neither should your equipment.
If you’ve given the threat sufficient thought, then you’ll recognize
that the security situation will vary widely by the level of threat present
in your area. While you are planning, make sure that you address as many of
the conceivable scenarios as you can. Once you reach that threshold between
viable defense and non-viable defense, put together pre-planned alternatives
to standing and fighting. Make sure your group knows when to bug-out and where
to go. If possible, pre-position bug-out caches to facilitate these plans.
In conclusion, proper retreat security is a huge, but manageable task as
long as you approach it in the correct context. The specifics on how you address
individual elements within the fundamental areas of Detection, Delay, and Response
are less important than addressing them in a balanced and systematic way. In
order to detect the bad guy, you have to have a means of detection, it has
to be effective, and it has to be on. In order to slow the bad guy down, you
have to have obstacles that are pertinent to his preferred mode of travel,
you have to have enough of them so that his total travel time is longer than
it takes your personnel to get within rifle range, and they have to be observed.
To respond effectively and neutralize the bad guy, your response forces have
to numerous enough to counter bad guy forces, they have to know the rules,
and they must have and be familiar with their equipment. Lastly, in a “no-win” situation,
everyone has to know when and how to get out, and where to go.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: Networking With Like-Minded Individuals »
Two Letters Re: Cooking Aromas and Post-Collapse OPSEC
James:
On the subject of limiting cooking aromas, there is a cooking technique that
has been catching on lately in this country. Sous Vide cooking,
which means "Under
Water", started in France by using food placed in vacuum sealed bags
and then placing them in hot water (160-to-185 degrees Fahrenheit) for a
long period of time. Here's a link describing the method: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sous-vide
Many recipes can be found on sites such as the one offered by Food
Network,
or type "Sous Vide Recipes" in the search engine of your preference.
This method is used in large food operations, such as the casino company that
I currently work for. We provide food in this manner for five large resorts
out of one kitchen. I have used this method, in a much smaller scale, on my
excursions
into un-named wilderness areas with much success.
The important thing to remember after pulling the food from the hot water:
if you will not be eating the food immediately it is absolutely imperative
to cool the bags of cooked food as quickly as possible to prohibit bacteria
growth. This is easily accomplished by using an ice bath. Your vacuum packed,
cooked food will keep for weeks this way and even longer if frozen after cooling.
I hope this helps. - Desert T (An "old school" trained chef)
Mr. Rawles;
Some cooking smells can be avoided by covered pit cooking in clay
pots. Take hot coals from your fire and layer them in a hole about 12 to
18 inches deep,
take your food and season, wrap in foil or place in a covered clay pot. Of
course use a large thermometer to gauge temperature to cook to [the proper]
food specifications. Regards, - TD
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: An Overlooked Aspect of Preparedness--Crutches and Canes »
Letter Re: Spare Parts Now Available for XD-45 Pistols
James,
Count me as another check mark to add to the "switch to XD" category.
I know several shooters who've made the switch from [Model] 1911 [pistols]
to the [Springfield Armory] XD with almost no issues. Most of them
shoot equally well or better with the XD.
In my experience, Model 1911s are just too prone to fail. We see too many here
at the Un-named Shooting School take a dive. Virtually no Glocks or
XDs have mechanical failures, though.
Good Providence! - The Pioche Professional Polymer Pistolero (PPPP).
JWR Adds: PPPP is the pseudonym
for a SurvivalBlog correspondent that is an instructor at a well-known firearms
training academy. I trust PPPP's accumulated wisdom and experience. He has worked
with many hundreds of pistol shooting students, and has seen all manner of
weaponry with and without
all of the popular modifications. He knows from experience what works,
and what doesn't. He has seen what breaks, and what is "bomb proof."
There are M1911 aficionados, and there are Glock aficionados. For many years
I was a dyed-in-the wool M1911 kinda guy. But I could see the wisdom of the
Glock revolution. Their reliability is astounding, and their magazine capacity
is superior to a M1911. (Well, aside from the ParaOrdnance double stack M1911s.)
My only complaints about Glocks were A.) their lack of an external safety,
and B.) their uncomfortable
grips.
The latter
can be
altered
by
a gunsmith. (The
grips can be re-countoured ("reduced") by machining to be slimmer, and the
grip angle can be improved a bit.) But recently, the Springfield "Extreme
Duty" (XD) pistols
hit the market, and in
my estimation they are "the best of both worlds." It combines
the advantages of a polymer frame and the high capacity
of the
Glock
with
the
same
grip
angle
as
a
M1911, (which
provides natural pointing
for most shooters), and the .45 ACP Service Model
variant has an external
safety! Bonus
points
to
the
designers! (Call me a dinosaur, but I like external safeties.) If you are already
a trained Glockophile, you can either get can XD without the thumb
safety lever, or simply get in the
habit of not touching it--since you can rely on just the "in-the-trigger" safety--the
.45 ACP Service Model XD has both safeties.
I recommend that if you are interested in getting
an XD pistol, you should take advantage of Front Sight's very generous "Get
a Gun" training
and gear package offer. It is available only for a limited time, so don't
hesitate. And again, if you are a Rawlesian, you should specify the
XD-45
model.
« Letter Re: Do It Yourself Coffee Roasting |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: Retreat Locales in the Eastern United States
Mr. Rawles:
I see that [in your Recommended
Retreat Areas page] you only list information
for retreat selection in 19 western states. Do you not think other states are
worthy
of
retreat locations?
We live on 300 acres in southwestern Missouri (Polks County). Not totally ideal
I am sure, but it is home, children and grandchildren are here and more over
we
feel placed here by our Lord over 35 years ago.
I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts pro/con on the state
of Missouri so that we might be better prepared. -- Paulette
JWR Replies: I consider Missouri marginal as a retreat locale,
primarily because of it population density. The state of Missouri is on the
safer (lower population density) side of the
Mississippi River but it is still
far from ideal, since the state is bisected by the
Missouri River and the dramatic
drop in US population density is west of
the Missouri. (As I will discuss later in this reply.)
My choice of reviewing retreat
locales
in just 19 western
states has been discussed
a
few times before
in
SurvivalBlog, but for the benefit of the
many
newcomers, I will reiterate:
After much consideration, all of the eastern
states were intentionally excluded for my recommendations because
they are all either downwind of nuclear targets and/or are in areas with
excessive population density. This wasn't just the result of subjective
bias. I try
to use the dispassionate mindset of an actuarial accountant.
Take a look at The
Lights of the U.S. photo
maps.
These montages of satellite photos make it clear that most of America's population
is east of the Missouri River and is highly urbanized.The population density
of the U.S. is dramatically lower in the west. In troubled
times fewer people means fewer problems. In the event of a social upheaval,
being west of the Missouri River will mean a statistically much lower chance
of coming face to face with lawless rioters
or looters When The Schumer Hits The Fan (WTSHTF).
The other startling thing you will notice when looking at the Lights photo montage
is that even in the western states, Americans live in a highly urbanized society.
Roughly 90% of the population is crammed into 5% of the land area, mostly
within
50 miles of the coast. But there are large patches of the west where there are
virtually no lights at all--particularly in the Great Basin region that extends
from the back side of the Sierra Nevada mountains to Utah and Eastern Oregon.
The average population density in this region is less than two people per square
mile.
As an example of the low population density in the west, I often like to cite
Idaho County, Idaho: This one county measures 8,485 square miles--bigger than
Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. But it has a population of just 15,400.
And of those residents, roughly 3,300 people live in Grangeville, the county
seat. Who lives in the rest of the County? Nary a soul. There are far more deer
and elk than there are people. The population density of the county is 1.8 people
per square mile. The county has more than three million acres of U.S. Forest
Service
land, BLM land, and designated Federal
wilderness areas. Now that is elbow room!
The northeastern states depend on nuclear power plants for 47% of their electricity.
South Carolina is similarly dependent. This is an unacceptable level of high
technology systems dependence, particularly in light of the emerging terrorist
threat. You must also consider that virtually all of the eastern states are
downwind of major nuclear targets. In a full
scale exchange, the eastern US would be a bad place to be. See the target
lists, fallout projections, and other data at Richard Fleetwood's excellent SurvivalRing
web site. Not only are there lots of nuclear targets in the east, but easterners
will also get considerable additional fallout carried on the winds from
strikes farther west--including SAC bomber
bases, the strategic missile fields (in Montana, the Dakotas, and northern
Colorado), Cheyenne Mountain (Colorado), Offutt AFB (Nebraska),
and others. The majority of the military targets are expected to be hit with ground
bursts, which are the type that produce fallout. Because of the Coriolis
Effect, the prevailing winds in most of the United States are from west
to east, so the farther east you live, the greater the accumulated fallout
that you are likely to receive. Sorry!
My general advice for easterners: If for one reason or another you are stuck
in the northeast, then consider New Hampshire or Vermont. They are both gun
friendly and
have more
self-sufficient
lifestyle. But unless you have some compelling reason to stay in the East,
I most strongly encourage you to Go West!
With all that said, there are some areas in the eastern US that will
be safer than others (like parts of Tennessee and Maine), and there are
ways
to mitigate the risks that I mentioned.:
Risk Mitigation
The
risk posed by the higher population density of the eastern states can
be mitigated by both carefully choosing your retreat property (look for bypassed
areas that are far from "channelized
areas" and lines of drift") and by having heavily-manned
24/7/360 armed
and vigilant security at your retreat. (See my novel "Patriots:
Surviving the Coming Collapse" for a detailed description
of what might be needed to mount such a guard.) This will of course mean
extra mouths to feed--which in turn dictates the
expense
of
extra
storage
food, extra gardening space, extra housing, and extra stored fuel. But
this could be
viable,
especially if you are wealthy.
The other obvious risk mitigation is to construct a blast/fallout shelter
with a forced-air HEPA filter.
If your house already has a basement, and you are willing to do some of the
work yourself, a retrofit can be done for
under $5,000. Constructing a new, dedicated shelter can be a $15,000 to $70,000
proposition, depending how large and elaborate you want to make it. The folks
at Safecastle
have extensive experience in building such shelters, tailored for all budgets.
They specialize in combination storm/nuke/gun vault shelters. I highly recommend
them.
« Letter Re: Cooking Aromas and Post-Collapse OPSEC |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: Spare Parts Now Available for XD-45 Pistols
Jim:
You
mentioned that spare parts for Springfield Armory XD pistols have been hard
to find.
That
was the case, up until recently. But now spare XD parts are starting
to show up at PistolGear.com.
Hover you cursor arrow over "Springfield XD" at the bottom of the
window that pops up . There should be a line that reads "XD Factory
Parts".
I just got a whole stack of [factory spare XD parts] in the mail last week.
There are still some critical parts
that
are missing, such as the extractor. I have done a lot of business with them
and talked to the owner Tom a good deal, good fast service and sounds like
a pretty good guy.
My first XD has over 40,000 rounds through it without cleaning and it functions perfectly. They are just as tough as a Glock, just
as easy to field strip,
but a bit more difficult to detail strip. Overall, it is a great pistol. -
Regards, - Bert M.
JWR Replies: That is great news! Consider the proviso that
I mentioned yesterday, withdrawn. I can now without reservation
endorse the XD pistol as a primary pistol for the long term survival firearms
batteries of SurvivalBlog readers.
At this point, I
am sorely tempted to sell off my stainless steel Colt M1911s and replace them
all with XD-45 pistols. I now recognize that I could get better reliability
and nearly twice as many guns for the money that I'd net from selling my used Colts!
(A stainless steel Colt Gold Cup .45 now sells for around $1,200. Yikes!) The
only remaining issue is that I have 35 years of training
invested
in
the M1911 platform. I will do some extensive testing of an XD-45 and let you
know what
I decide. Oh boy, am I tempted!
I must reiterate that Front Sight's "Get
a Gun" training
and gear package offer is available only for a limited time. I most
strongly
recommend that SurvivalBlog readers take Naish Piazza up on his offer
before he cuts off further enrollments. (They only have a limited quantity
of
guns and gear
available for this "package" deal.
This
is
a tremendously generous offer. As near as I can figure, Naish is offering the
package
at near his cost, as an inducement to get shooters to come and take their first
course
at Front Sight. Once someone takes a course there, they are "hooked" and
keep
coming back for more--the the training there is that good. The
Memsahib and I can vouch for that personally. We were astounded at the quality
of the training.
I learned more in four days at Front Sight than I had in the 35 years
of my previous pistol
shooting
experience. I'm not kidding.
OBTW, I
note that in addition to Springfield Armory factory spare parts, PistolGear.com also
sells a
wide range of aftermarket parts and accessories
for XDs. And anyone that needs more details on XD pistol should check out
the XD
Talk Forums.
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Letter Re: Cooking Aromas and Post-Collapse OPSEC
Greetings All,
SurvivalBlog has, and is, providing great practical information as well a thoughts
on just about every aspect overcoming adversity and disastrous conditions.
This brain trust provides information on retaining as much privacy as possible
in this era of electronic monitoring of everything we purchase, and how to
camouflage just about every type of inanimate object. I have noticed one
issue that hasn't been addressed. (Don't faint!).
During a long term situation in particular this one issue can impact any family
or group's safety. So here is the question. How can we best 'camouflage' or
limit the smell of food cooking? In a short term situation, as after hurricane,
this would be a less dangerous situation provided relief was available and
the aftermath limited in locale. During a hurricane most of us in our neighborhood
had huge cookouts to use up frozen foods before they spoiled, or shared prepared
food. We knew the limits of the damage and even with a week or more without
power, while 'bothersome', wasn't creating any real dangerous situation. Our
family gathered a large percentage of our frozen food as well as some of our
neighbor's food and took our freezer and it's contents to a relative within
traveling distance who had power. And through that week we made trips to pick
up food for that day and put it into ice chests.
If anyone has been down wind of a neighbor grilling out during the Spring,
Summer or even Fall; you know how that affects you. When I was growing up and
spending Summers on her farm, or visiting every week or so, I remember the
aroma of my Grandmother's cooking whenever I was outside and down wind of the
farm house. During a long term situation, where people are desperate or crime
more widespread, as the example Argentina provides us, that one element has
the potential negate all the 'movement, light and sound discipline' one may
initiate in order to maintain a low profile of having a stock of foodstuffs.
It could even attract unwanted attention from any government agencies who are
'here to help us'. How can this danger be mitigated?
Keep your powder dry, - The Rabid One
JWR Replies: You've raised a valid observation that should
be included on retreat planning OPSEC "signatures"
planning. Aside from minimizing the use of cooking herbs and spices, and minimizing
outdoor venting, there is not a lot that
can
be done to
reduce
cooking
smells.
Obviously, in a famine situation, preserving meat by salting or brine jerking
would be far superior to using a meat smoker!
For some background on various habitation "signatures", see my
December, 2007 discussion of being holed up in an apartment. In such
demanding circumstances--with neighbors in close proximity---it would be
advisable to cook only the most bland foods and to primarily use the
Thermos bottle
cooking method--like the one described by SurvivalBlog reader KBF.
Cooking odor signature is yet another reason to buy a house on acreage.
The farther that your house is
away
from
public thoroughfares, the better. The inverse
square law (which you'll recall I've mentioned regarding topics like
sound attenuation and even Golden
Horde attenuation) applies to the olfactory sense, too. (Your local wind speed and direction may vary.)
Perhaps some SurvivalBlog readers have some other suggestions on minimizing
the "signature" of cooking aromas. OBTW, another odor that needs to be controlled
is the smell of burning tobacco, which can carry a surprising distance.
(I've heard this mentioned by several infantry combat veterans.)
« Survival Real Estate Market Update |Main| Letter Re: The British Perspective on Food Storage and Preparedness »
Two Letters Re: Recommendations on a Reliable AK and a Competent AK Trainer
James,
I just finished a two day AK Rifle Gunfighting class with Suarez
International,
using my AK that I got from Mark Graham at Arizona
Response Systems. I fired
over 700 rounds in a two day period, and had no hiccups or issues. Mark is
a first class gunsmith, and was great to work with. For a quality AK build
at a very reasonable price, call Mark. For the best training on how to fight with
the AK rifle, not just shoot it, call Gabe Suarez at Suarez International.
Regards, - SJC
JWR Replies: Gabe Suarez has a fine reputation as a trainer.
His classes are reportedly quite intense. I have been a fan of Mark Graham's
gunsmithing work since the early 1990s.
He did fantastic rebuilds on two pre-ban SAR-48 FAL clone rifles for me, converting
their
receivers to accept
inch magazines and folding charging handles. (He did the "builds"using
British L1A1
parts kits that I had supplied.). Mark is also known for his Glock grip reductions
and his custom gun refinishing, using a system called MetaCol. It is a very
durable
and corrosion-resistant
finish. OBTW, another gunsmith that I recommend for both FAL and AK work is
Rich Saunders at CGW.
Jim:
After watching the humorous 'safety' video posted on Total
Survivalist Libertarian Rantfest, I was reminded of my most recent training
with Gabe Suarez, Team Tactics. We were
shooting rifles in groups and I noticed that unlike shooting handguns, tunnel
vision with a rifle, especially a scoped one, is a real issue. Shooting handguns
still gives you peripheral vision so if someone on your team starts walking
into your line of fire, you can see it more easily. With a rifle, looking
thru the scope, you lose all your peripheral vision. There are two fixes
for
this:
1) Keep your shooters in a line. [("Team on line.")]
2) Remind your leader that his or her job
is [being] more of a manager than a shooter.
When I was in a leadership role [("fire team leader" or "squad
leader")], the
only time I actually fired my rifle was when a certain percentage of my
shooters
all had to reload or had gun malfunctions at the same time. When the cadence
of cover fire dropped I began to shoot and I stopped as soon as I could,
so I could [resume the role needed to] be the peripheral vision for my team.
Don't be shy if you have to grab someone and fling them to the side if they
are about
to
walk
into
friendly
fire. Adrenaline and tunnel vision are a deadly combo. - SF in Hawaii
« Letter Re: Dramatic Increases in Food Prices |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Food Shortages in the US Underscore the Weakness of JIT Inventory Systems
The mass media is currently in a frenzy about spot shortages of rice,
flour, and cooking oil at COSTCO stores. I've fielded seven radio interviews
in the
last couple of days. The only good news is that we set an all-time record yesterday,
with 22,217
unique site visits to SurvivalBlog in one day! The rationing situation
is getting worse. Several SurvivalBlog readers sent me this: Wal-Mart's
Sam's Club limits rice purchases. Meanwhile, we read in The Washington
Times: Americans
hoard food as industry seeks regulations.
Josh Gerstein, the reporter that interviewed me for the
recent New York Sun piece, just got his two minutes of fame
on FOX News: Food
Shortage Coming? No Rice For You (It used to be called "five minutes
of fame", but apparently time is being rationed, too.)
Things can
get a lot worse, and they probably will, since
the recent shortages and jumps in food prices are global, and
were driven by increased fuel costs, the
looming Ug99 wheat rust menace,
and a pitiful wheat harvest in Australia. (Australia has had drought in
three
of the
last six
years, and this year they reported
their smallest wheat harvest in 12 years.) A tremendous amount of US wheat
and rice has been exported to east Asia in the past six months, leaving
short supplies here. It was inevitable that this would eventually show
up at the consumer level. Part of the current problem at the COSTCOs and
Sam's
Clubs is that commercial bakeries and restaurants have resorted to buying
more rice and flour at the Big
Box stores. It is not clear whether this is because of shortages at their
normal
suppliers,
or
because
the
COSTCOs weren't keeping up with price increases (making them cheaper than
buying
wholesale), some stockpiling in anticipation of future price increases,
or a combination of these factors. What is clear is that American consumers
have finally caught
on,
and are
now likely
to
stock
up. Yesterday, even the stodgy The Wall Street Journal jumped
on the preparedness bandwagon, when they printed this editorial: Load
Up the Pantry. I predict that if there is media attention that is any
more vocal than this, it could induce a buying panic like the Johnny
Carson toilet paper incident.
An underlying factor that is being under-reported by the mainstream media
is that the modern-day Just in Time (JIT) inventory control is a part of the
current problem. As
I wrote in SurvivalBlog back in February of 2007, by enthusiastically adopting
the Japanese kanban system,
America retailers have left themselves quite vulnerable to both wholesale shortages
and
consumer
demand spikes. Inventories are intentionally kept lean, for efficiency. This
is great for cutting costs in normal times, but it is dangerously fragile whenever
a disruption occurs. With JIT, every purchase is logged at the checkout counter
terminal, and once a predetermined shelf threshold is reached, an automatic
restocking order gets forwarded through the system. Typically,
these re-supply shipments take
around
24 hours.
But a big spike in sales can totally overwhelm the system, leaving empty shelves.
I'm glad that most SurvivalBlog
readers stocked up well in advance. By doing so, you are now part
of the solution in a food crisis, rather than part of the problem.
Because you stocked up many months ago, each one of you represents one
less buyer rushing
to the store at the 11th hour. And, by having extra on hand, you can dispense
charity to your less prudent neighbors.
If the current rice shortage gets any worse, you need to be prepared to dispense
charity. I assume that the average SurvivalBlog reader has about 200 pounds
of rice on hand. I recommend that you identify friends, neighbors, co-workers
and church brethren that are gluten
intolerant. For most of us, a shortage of rice, by itself, is not much
of an issue. We can simply shift to eating more wheat. But this is not an option
for folks that are gluten intolerant (also known as celiac disease, or celiac
sprue.) If any of your acquaintances are in this category and they report that
they are running out
of
rice,
then
quietly offer
to give
them some. For the sake of OPSEC,
just let them
know
that
you
have
"a little
extra" that you can share. Never hand out any of your rice stockpile in
more than five pound increments, or you might start some unfriendly rumors.
Hopefully, this will be a short term phenomenon. I anticipate that the Bush
administration will soon sharply curtail exports of rice and wheat. Once the
current shortage is alleviated, we should both thank God for his Providence,
and take this as a
reminder to
stock
up
even more, to be prepared for future shortages. Remember our motto:" Two
is one, and one is none."/p>
« Letter Re: Potatoes as a Survival Garden Crop |Main| A Warning on Buying Full Capacity Magazines in "Kit Form" »
Three Letters Re: Hiding Things in Plain Sight
Jim,
I have very carefully concealed my gun safe but in order to fool potential
crooks, but I also have an old one that is very poorly hidden. It has stickers
on it from
my favorite firearms manufacturers. Once the [burglars] get it back to their
den and peel it open, they will find themselves the proud owners of
five large sandbags full of gravel. - Andy B.
James,
My
wife and I were recently discussing hiding places - what about inside
a bucket of paint? Securely wrapping "the valuables" up in appropriate
containers (likely several layers of Ziploc sandwich bags) and just dropping
it in. If the valuables aren't heavy enough to sink, a rock or piece of metal
should be added to keep them at the bottom. Hey, you could even write "Treasure" on
the bucket of paint and people would just think it's the name of the paint
color, but it would
help you remember which one has the stash.
Jim:
Take a look at Habitat
For Humanity’s ReStore directory. ReStore
only accepts new paint or stain donations, so you don’t have to worry
about buying some toxic brew some schmuck dumped off. I buy from here because
the only thing I care about is that it is water based latex paint, and that
it is in five gallon buckets. I don’t care about the brand, or color,
and it’s inexpensive and the money goes to what I happen to believe
is a laudable effort. Never mind Jimmy Carter.
I then go to another hardware store and buy new, metal one gallon paint cans
and lids. The ones that have the lids that fit into the center of the can,
and have to be hammered down, and then pried up with a screwdriver. The plastic
ones don’t work that well, so don’t bother with them.
A suitable amount of paint is removed from the five gallon can.
I place my gold, and silver into the one gallon cans along with a desiccant,
hammer the lid on, and then submerge them into the five gallon can. Each five
gallon container will hold two one gallon containers without any problem.
More than that, they get a little heavy, and the paint doesn’t always
conceal what is inside the can if the lid should be opened.
I only use this technique for things I will not need to get at readily. It
might be good for long term hiding of small handguns, and ammunition as well.
Your site is a welcome find. Have fun! Sincerely, - JTH
JWR Replies: It is interesting that two readers both mentioned
the same idea. Because steel paint cans might rust when submerged in water-based
paint, I'd recommend
using
only
plastic
containers.
One of my favorite "in plain sight" caches that can be used outdoors
is a length of 4" diameter PVC pipe,
with a glued-on cap on one end, and a threaded cap on
the other end. The pipe is buried vertically, with the threaded end cap
left protruding from the ground, looking just like a typical septic
clean-out cap. Unless
you hire someone to pump your septic system or to "snake" your drain pipes,
it
is highly
unlikely
that
anyone
would
ever
disturb
one of these caches.
« Letter Re: JWR's Opinion of Kalashnikov (AK) Action Rifles |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: Hiding Things in Plain Sight
Mister Rawles,
Household burglaries are all too common, especially where I live. (In a Cleveland,
Ohio suburb. The crooks actually commute out to the suburbs to burglarize!)
From news stories, I have observed that : 1.) They aren't too smart.
If they were, they'd have a "real" job!), and 2.) They are usually
in a hurry. You've mentioned building hidden caches in your blog several times,
but have you given any thought to hiding things in plain sight?
For example you could empty out cans of unappealing food items (like dog food,
or olives), and using that space for valuables. - Thanks, - Terrence
JWR Replies: Making your own "hide in plain sight" containers
is a bit time consuming, but it is a fun exercise for a weekend afternoon.
If you carefully remove the label from a steel can, you can saw the
can in half. Then empty it out and wash it. After drying it thoroughly, you
can stuff it full of valuables and tape it shut. Glue the label back on, and voila! A
can that is almost indistinguishable from any others. Some detailed
instructions on another method are shown at Instructables.com.
One reputable mail order vendor that sells some very clever mass-produced "diversion" safes
is Personal
Security Online.
Another vendor is PestControls.us. They sell diversion
safes that look like books, beer or soda cans, and even rocks. And an even
bigger assortment of diversion safe containers is available from eFindOutTheTrurth.com.
Perhaps some readers would care to e-mail me some
of their favorite do-it yourself ideas for hiding things in plain sight.
« Letter from David in Israel Re: Stocking Up on Matzoh |Main| Preparedness Considerations for College Students, by Sam »
Home Invasion Robberies in Argentina, by FerFAL
JWR's Introductory Note: FerFAL is SurvivalBlog's volunteer
correspondent in Argentina. If you haven't done so already, be sure to read
his Profile.
Readers might also be interested
in FerFAL's blog: Surviving
in Argentina.
I just got off the phone, after talking with a college friend of mine. We talked
about the current situation our country is going through, the food shortages
and empty shelves, and how long things will hold on until people
get desperate.
As an afterthought she mentioned that some robbers attacked her father and
his girlfriend (divorced) while they watched over her recently married sister’s
home, while she was on her honeymoon.
I always try to learn as much detail as I can from these situations.
As is currently typical, three armed men intercepted the couple when they arrived
to the sister’s
house, when they were getting out of the car.
Then, three more guys showed up, each driving a car!
They tied them up, loaded the cars full of the newly-wedded couple’s
gifts, everything they had was soon fitted into the cars.
After that, one of the bad guys cut the cable off an appliance, stripped the
end of the cable, and threatened to torture them with electric shocks.
There was also some money in the house--about $1,000--and fortunately they
didn’t fulfill the threat.
A few thoughts that come to mind:
1) Criminals always seem to attack when entering or exiting your house. Those
are the moments when you should be extra careful.
2) Be discreet about what you have. Three cars? They knew about the wedding,
the gifts, the new house, etc.
3) Once you are tied up in a chair, there’s no use in wishing you had
done something before. If they end up raping or killing your entire family,
you can't go back in time, buy a gun, learn how to use it, and defend yourself
and your loved ones. It’s too late.
4) Some people just don’t get it, even when the truth is smeared all
over their faces.
Right after telling me this, my friend told me that the best thing to do is
surrender, cooperate with the criminals and hope for the best.
She told me that she was worried about me because she knew that I was armed
and had the will to shoot if necessary.
I expressed my concerns about the opposite being true regarding her.
5) Three armed guys and three more nearby? Do I really want a six-shot revolver,
or even worse, a five-shot one?
The reality around you dictates the kind of weapon you need, and even then...
guns are meant to be comforting, not comfortable. That’s one of the few
gun maxims I like. - FerFAL
« Letter Re: Food Riots in Haiti |Main| Note from JWR: »
The Precepts of My Survivalist Philosophy
In the past week I've had three newcomers to SurvivalBlog.com write and ask
me to summarize my world view. One of them asked: "I could spend days
looking through [the] archives of your [many months of] blog posts. But there
are hundreds
of them. Can you tell me where you stand, in just a page? What distinguishes
the "Rawlesian" philosophy from other [schools of] survivalist thought?"
I'll likely add a few items to this list as time goes on, but here is a general
summary of my precepts:
Modern Society is Increasingly Complex, Interdependent, and Fragile. With
each passing year, technology progresses and chains of interdependency lengthen.
In the past 30 years, chains of retail supply have grown longer and longer.
The food on your supermarket shelf does not come from local farmers. It often
comes from hundreds or even thousands of miles away. This has created an alarming
vulnerability to disruption. Simultaneously, global population is still increasing
in a near geometrical progression. At some point that must end, most likely
with a sudden and sharp drop in population. The lynchpin is the grid. Without
functioning power grids, modern industrial societies will collapse within weeks.
Civilization is Just a Thin Veneer. In the absence of law
an order, men quickly revert to savagery. As was illustrated by the rioting
and looting that accompanied disasters in the past three decades, the transition
from tranquility to absolute barbarism can occur overnight. People expect tomorrow
to be just like today, and they act accordingly. But then comes a unpredictable
disaster that catches the vast majority unprepared. The average American family
has four days worth of food on hand. When that food is gone, we'll soon see
the thin veneer stripped away.
People Run in Herds and Packs, but Both Follow Natural Lines of
Drift. Most
people are sheep ("sheeple").
A few are wolves that prey on others. But just a few of us are more like sheepdogs--we
think independently, and instead of
predation,
we are
geared toward protecting and helping others. People naturally follow natural lines
of drift--the path of least resistance. When the Schumer hits
the fan, 99% of urbanites will try to leave the cities on freeways. The highways
and freeways will soon resemble parking lots. This means that you need to be
prepared to both get
out of town ahead of the rush and to use lightly-traveled back roads.
Plan,
study and practice.
Lightly Populated Areas are Safer than High Density Areas. With
a few exceptions, less population means fewer problems. WTSHTF, there will
be a mass exodus from the cities. Think of it as an army that is spreading
out across a battlefield: The wider that
they
are
spread,
the less effective that they are. The inverse
square law hasn't been repealed.
Show Restraint, But Always Have Recourse to Lethal Force. My
father often told me, "It
is better to have a gun and not need it, than need a gun, and not have it." I
urge readers to use less than lethal means when safe and practicable, but at
times there is not a satisfactory substitute for well-aimed lead going down
range at high velocity.
There is Strength in Numbers. Rugged individualism is all
well and good, but it takes ore than one man to defend a retreat. Effective
retreat defense necessitates having at least two families to provide 24/7 perimeter
security. But of course every individual added means having another mouth to
feed. Absent having an unlimited budget and an infinite larder, this necessitates
striking a balance when deciding the size of a retreat group.
There are Moral Absolutes. The foundational morality
of the civilized world is best summarized in the Ten
Commandments. Moral relativism and secular humanism are slippery slopes.
The terminal moraine at the base of these slopes is a rubble pile consisting
of either despotism and pillage, or anarchy and the depths of depravity. I
believe
that
it takes both faith and friends to survive perilous times. For more background
on that, see my Prayer
page.
Racism Ignores Reason. People should be judged as individuals.
Anyone that make blanket statements about other races is ignorant that there
are both good and bad individuals in all groups. I have accepted The
Great Commission with sincerity."Go forth into all nations" means
exactly that:
all nations. OBTW, I feel grateful that SurvivalBlog is now read
in more than 100 countries. I have been given a bully pulpit,
and I intend to use it for good and edifying purposes.
Skills Beat Gadgets and Practicality Beats Style. The modern
world is full of pundits, poseurs, and Mall
Ninjas. Preparedness is not just about
accumulating a pile of stuff. You need practical skills, and those
only come with study, training, and practice.
Any
armchair
survivalist
can
buy a set
of stylish camouflage fatigues and an M4gery Carbine
encrusted with umpteen accessories. Style points should not be mistaken
for genuine skills and
practicality.
Plentiful Water and Good Soil are Crucial. Modern mechanized
farming, electrically pumped irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides
can make deserts bloom. But when the grid goes down, deserts and marginal farmland
will revert to their natural states. In my estimation, the most viable places
to survive in the midst of a long term societal collapse will be those with
reliable summer rains
and rich
topsoil.
Tangibles Trump Conceptuals. Modern fiat currencies are generally
accepted, but have essentially no backing. Because they are largely a byproduct
of interest bearing debt, modern currencies are destined to inflation. In
the long run, inflation dooms fiat
currencies to collapse. The majority of
your assets should be invested in
productive farm land and other tangibles such as useful hand tools. Only after
you have your key logistics squared away, anything extra should
be invested in silver and gold.
Governments Tend to Expand their Power to the Point that They Do Harm. In
SurvivalBlog, I often warn of the insidious tyranny of the Nanny
State. If
the state where you live becomes oppressive, then don't hesitate to relocate.
Vote with your feet!
There is Value in Redundancy. A common saying of my
readers is: "Two
is one, and one is none." You must be prepared
to provide for your family in a protracted period of societal disruption. That
means storing up all of the essential "beans, bullets, and Band-Aids" in quantity.
If commerce is disrupted by a disaster, at least in the short term you will
only have your own logistics to fall back on. The more that you have stored,
the
more
that
you
will have
available for barter and charity.
A Deep Larder is Essential. Food storage is one of the key
preparations that I recommend. Even if you have a fantastic self-sufficient
garden and pasture ground, you must always have food storage that you can fall
back on in the event that your crops fail due to drought, disease, or infestation.
Tools Without Training Are Almost Useless. Owning a gun doesn't
make someone a "shooter" any more than owning a surfboard makes someone a surfer.
With proper training and practice, you will be miles ahead of the average citizen.
Get advanced medical
training. Get the best firearms
training that you can afford. Learn about amateur radio from your local
affiliated ARRL club.
Practice raising a vegetable garden each summer. Some skills are only perfected
over
a period
of years.
Old Technologies are Appropriate Technologies. In
the event of a societal collapse, 19th Century (or earlier) technologies such
as a the blacksmith's forge, the treadle sewing machine, and the horse-drawn
plow
will be
far easier
to re-construct than modern technologies.
Charity is a Moral Imperative. As a Christian, I feel morally
obligated to assist others that are less fortunate. Following the Old Testament
laws of Tzedakah (charity
and tithing), I believe that my responsibility begins with my immediate family
and expands in successive rings to supporting
my immediate
neighborhood
and
church, to my
community, and beyond, as resources allow. In short, my philosophy is to "give
until it hurts" in times of disaster.
Buy Life Assurance, not Life Insurance. Self-sufficiency
and self-reliance are many-faceted. You need to systematically provide for
Water, Food, Shelter, Fuel, First Aid,
Commo,
and, if need be, the tools to enforce Rule
308.
Live at Your Retreat Year-Round. If your financial and family
circumstances allow it, I strongly recommend that you relocate
to a safe area and live there year-round. This has several advantages,
most notably that will prevent burglary of your retreat logistics and
allow you to regularly
tend to gardens, orchards, and livestock. It will also remove the stress of
timing a "Get Out of Dodge" trip at the11th hour.
If circumstances dictate that you can't live at your retreat year round, then
at least have
a caretaker and stock the vast majority of your logistics in advance, since
you may only have one trip there before roads are impassable.
Exploit Force Multipliers. Night vision gear, intrusion
detection sensors, and radio communications equipment are key force
multipliers. Because
these use high technology they cannot be depended upon in a long term collapse,
but in the short term, they can provide a big advantage. Some low technologies
like barbed wire and defensive road cables also provide advantages and can
last for several decades.
Invest Your Sweat Equity. Even if some of
you have a millionaire's budget, you need to learn how to do things for yourself,
and
be willing to get your hands dirty. In a societal collapse, the division of
labor will be reduced tremendously. Odds are that the only "skilled craftsmen" available
to build a shed, mend a fence, shuck corn, repair an engine, or pitch manure
will be you.and
your family. A byproduct of sweat equity is muscle tone and proper body weight.
Hiring someone to deliver three cords of firewood is a far cry from
felling, cutting, hauling, splitting, and stacking it yourself.
Choose Your Friends Wisely. Associate yourself with skilled
doers, not "talkers." Seek out people that share your
outlook and morality. Living in close confines with other families is sure
to cause friction but that will be minimized if you share a common religion
and norms of behavior.You can't learn every skill yourself. Assemble a team
that
includes members with medical knowledge, tactical skills, electronics experience,
and traditional practical skills.
There is No Substitute for Mass. Mass stops bullets. Mass
stops gamma radiation. Mass stops (or at least slows down ) bad guys from entering
a home and depriving its residents of life and property. Sandbags are cheap,
so buy plenty of them. When planning your retreat house, think: medieval
castle.
(See the SurvivalBlog Archives for the many articles and letters on Retreat
Architecture.)
Always Have a Plan B and a Plan C. Regardless of your pet
scenario and your personal grand plan of survival, you need to be flexible
and adaptable. Situations and circumstances change. Always keep a G.O.O.D. kit
handy, even if you are fortunate enough to live at your retreat year-round.
Be Frugal. I grew up in a family that still remembered both
our pioneer history and the more recent lessons of the Great Depression. One
of our family mottos is: "Use
it up, wear it out, make do, or do without."
Some Things are Worth Fighting For. I encourage my readers
to avoid trouble, most importantly via relocation to safe areas where trouble
is unlikely to come to visit. But there may come an unavoidable day that you
have
to
make a stand to defend your own family or your neighbors. Further, if you value
your liberty, then be prepared to fight for it, both for yourself and for
the sake
of
your progeny.
« Letter Re: Advice on Home School Curriculum Resources |Main| Letter Re: Scottish Highland: The Ideal Choice for Survival Beef Cattle »
Letter Re: A Severe Storm Provides a Valuable Lesson
Hi Jim,
I'm a long time reader. I wanted to relate to you a recent experience
I had, which may be of value to SurvivalBlog readers. I live in a state
that is prone to tornados and severe weather. We recently had
a storm tear through our area, causing several million dollars in damage across
much of the state, my neighborhood notwithstanding. My wife and I went to bed
Wednesday evening, expecting only scattered thunderstorms. What we awoke to
at 3:30am was much, much more than a thunderstorm. As I looked out our bedroom's
open window, I saw and heard wind and rain, the likes of which I've never witnessed
in all my 45 years. I nudged my wife and simply said "closet". Now,
she knows her husband as the guy who, instead of going for shelter, he usually
goes outside to observe and satisfy his unbridled curiosty. When she heard
me say "closet", she knew it was serious.
Within four minutes, we were hunkered down in the closet, with everything we
needed, including our surplus Kevlar helmets (the wife no longer thinks I'm
nuts for making that purchase). I thought we were going to lose the house.
We lost only trees and fences, but we learned a very valuable lesson. We were
very ill prepared for that experience. Now, I pride myself on being one of
the better prepared families in my neighborhood, if not the best prepared,
but four minutes is unacceptable. We now have in place a setup that puts us
in
the closet with everything we need in under thirty seconds (assuming the cat
can be efficiently herded).
This got me to thinking; What if we had to actually bug out and leave our home?
Are we prepared? I know that I'm still extremely unprepared for such an event,
so that plan is now underway.
My point is this. Never, ever, under any circumstances, should we underestimate
the need to be prepared for an emergency. My experience that night could have
been much worse (60 hours later we got our electric power back, but we were
very well prepared to go very long lengths of time without power), so I was
lucky this time. You've devoted your life to hammering this home for your readers,
so I thank you, once again, for the wisdom you provide. Now, it has become
very real for me to actually heed that wisdom and put it into practice. A year's
supply of food means nothing to me, if its scattered over a square mile of
my neighborhood. Thanks, Jim, and thank you once again for
SurvivalBlog.com. God Bless, - HHH
JWR Replies: Thanks for relating that experience. Anyone
living in Hurricane or Tornado country should invest in a reinforced shelter,
if it is financially feasible. Ideally, it should be designed to also serve
as a security vault ("gun vault") and as a fallout shelter. One of our advertisers,
Safecastle,
has extensive experience in building such shelters. These are usually-equipped
with gun-vault type doors, that open inward. If you live in an area
with a high water table, they can be constructed aboveground. If
you can
afford
to
build
an entire house that is highly storm resistant, then you might consider building
a monolithic
dome home. One monolithic dome home contractor in the Midwest that I
recommend is Bill
Fraley of Global Dome Builders. Phone: (715) 926-3668.
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The ABCs of WTSHTF, by Mark B.
The ABCs of When the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF.)
aren’t what you have prepared, acquired or stowed but even more basic
in the preparation processes that we sometimes take for granted.
The A is the ability to learn, to adapt and to try. No matter how
many classes we take or how much we have stored away there is the potential
that we might have missed something or prepared for one scenario and ended
up with another. We may be in the middle of TEOTWAWKI and
not be fully ready but guess what, we aren’t scheduling it. Ability is
not only applying something that we’ve learned but troubleshooting or
working through something that we don’t have a clue about. We may not
get it right the first time that we try something new but we have the ability
to learn from our mistakes and go back to try again. We have the ability to
learn from others mistakes and we have the ability to make changes or corrections
that work for our scenario.
The B is the brains that we have to reason with to store our morals
our life lessons and the memories that make us who we are. The best tool that
we have at our disposal is our brain. So many people in day to day life just
go on auto pilot and don’t think about what they can do to improve how
they do something. In my line of work I hear that “I’ve done
it that way for 20 years”. My response is that you’ve been doing
it wrong for 20 years. We just get in the habit of doing things a certain way.
We eat our meals at the same time even if we aren’t hungry just because
it is the time we are conditioned to eat. We go to bed at a certain time and
we get up at a certain time. As a culture we have stopped utilizing what we
were born with. In my opinion that is a large part of why we are where we are
today. The sheep just keep waiting for someone to lead them or fall prey to
the ones that use their brains without the use of morals. If we just think
about what we are about to do instead of just doing it we can prevent personal
injury or emotional pain. A simple example would be when a loved one has done
something that upset you and you just respond without thinking of how it would
affect them or why they did it the way they did. The words are already spoken;
you can’t take them back, or you’re cutting something with a knife
and slice your finger or hand because you didn’t think about what you
were doing. We should try to learn and practice as much as possible so it will
at least be familiar if not second nature but if we haven’t seen or done
it before it is still doable because we can reason and solve problems. The
human race has faced challenges for thousands of years and we have always improved
because we have the ability to think.
The C stands for two things, first is choice. Most of the dialog that
I’ve seen on SurvivalBlog shows that we have made a choice to
not be led into a place where we no longer have a choice.
We all are at different stages in the process but our choice is to survive
whatever we are dealt. The choice is yours for all situations, you may not
be able to control the overall aspect but you make the choice of how you let
it affect you. Have you ever been driving and had someone cut you off? You
don’t have control over the other driver but you do have the ability
to make the choice of letting the incident infuriate you or brushing the whole
situation off. We all make choices of whom if anyone will be invited into our
confidence or where our retreat will be. We make the choice of what type of
armament we will utilize or the type of food we will store or grow. Some things
are dependent on location or availability but it is still a choice. Our choices
are a large part of what makes us who we are. The choice to have faith, the
choice to be ready, and the choice to have morals are some choices that most
of us here have made. Remember that no matter what the influences are the final
choice is the one that you make. Right, wrong or indifferent it’s the
choice that you will have to live with.
The second C is composure, always maintain your composure. If you
keep your wits about you then you stand a better chance of surviving the situation.
When you lose your composure you lose your ability to reason and react rationally.
In an emergency situation time is critical and if you remain calm you will
have a higher probability of doing it right the first time. In an emergency
situation maintaining your composure could mean the difference between life
and death. I don’t mean you have to become cold or callous but you can
deal with your emotions after the situation subsides. If you don’t maintain
your composure you might not get that chance.
I would like to thank my brothers in arms from all the services; they have
helped me learn these lessons and have given me the opportunity to use what
I was born with and strived to refine it and help it grow.
Remember that we started out without clothes and shelter. We started out without
the ability to communicate over great distances without traveling them. We
can now travel and communicate in space or around the planet all because we
use our ability, our brains and by the choices that we make.
In my opinion we should absolutely continue to learn, store and prepare. We
should choose who we will coexist with before, during and after the coming
collapse, we should do that even if the collapse doesn’t come during
our lifetime. We should continue to grow as an individual and as a group. We
should not over analyze the solution to whatever problem we face. We should
not assume failure if we missed something or we didn’t get the opportunity
to get everything that we wanted. We should be thankful for what we have. We
should remember how far we have come. We should use our brain to think the
solution through. We should use our ability to reason and we should stay calm
to prevail.
I have learned a great deal since I started reading SurvivalBlog and utilizing
the links and resources available here. It has provoked the thought process
of things that I hadn’t thought of or had a different approach about
something.
There are many things that the survivalist practices that have become a lost
art so to speak such as canning and the ability to survive without modern conveniences.
We are in a society that does not know how to function without cell phones
and computers but I can remember when we didn’t have them. We communicated
either by land line telephone or my goodness how archaic, snail mail. Farther
back in our history there was the Pony Express and even couriers.
[The author of the] Heartbreak Ridge [screenplay (James Carabatsos)]
stated it best:" Improvise,
adapt and overcome."
« Letter Re: Don't Delay Dental Work and Elective Surgery! |Main| Note from JWR: »
Time For Retreat Logistics Stage Two--The Soft Items
If you are a regular SurvivalBlog reader, the odds are that you already have the majority of your key logistics squared
away, like food storage, tools, guns, communications gear. So
now it is time to stock up on "soft" and perishable items. These
include over the counter medications, vitamins, chemical light sticks, matches,
paper
products,
cleansers, spices, liquid fuels, and so forth.
You need to exercise caution when stockpiling soft items, for several reasons:
1.) Shelf Life and Deterioration. Some items like pharmaceuticals,
batteries, and chemical light sticks are best stored in a refrigerator. Keep
in mind that items like
matches
are
vulnerable to humidity. (BTW, do not store matches in Mason
type glass jars! Resist the urge, or else you'll inadvertently make a glass
shrapnel bomb! Instead, use a vacuum sealer,
such
as
the
Tilia FoodSaver sealers sold by Ready Made Resources. This is also a great
way to keep rubber bands (including elastrator
bands) from deteriorating. Exposure to sunlight, or heat, or moisture can
all be deleterious to soft goods.
2.) Bulkiness. Paper products like paper towels, toilet paper,
and paper napkins are extremely bulky, per dollar value. If you have limited
storage space then you will need to budget that space carefully.
3.) Flammability. You should think of your stored paper products
as house
fire tinder, and your stored liquid fuels as potential fire accelerants
and explosives. One mistake that that I've heard mentioned is storing numerous
gasoline cans at home, in an attached garage. Most garages have a hot water
heater, often
fired by natural gas or propane. Uh oh! Store gas cans, oil-based
paint cans, and bulk lubricants only in a well-ventilated outbuilding that
is well-removed
from your residence. Be sure to check your state and local fire code for permissible
limits.
4.) OPSEC risk. The aforementioned bulk of stored paper products
also makes them obtrusive to casual observers. This present s an OPSEC risk.
If you have 500 rolls of toilet paper and
paper towels in your garage, someone is likely to notice. OBTW, one item that
I've stored as a potential barter item is sheet plywood. Those extra plywood
sheets, if
properly positioned can keep prying eyes away from your stockpiles.
5.) Abundance-Inspired Waste. Human nature dictates that
when something is scarce, it is used frugally, but when it is abundant, it
tends to get used more wastefully. I've seen this happen with my children,
in target practice with .22 rimfire ammunition. If they know that they have
just 50 rounds apiece available for a shooting session, they make every shot
count. But if there
is a full "brick" of ammo sitting there, it soon starts to sound like a day at
Knob Creek.
In his book The
Alpha Strategy, John Pugsley mentioned some friends that "invested" in
stocking their own home wine cellar. They determined that it would be less
expensive to
buy wine by the case. But they soon had so much wine that they got in the
habit of having a bottle with dinner
almost
every evening. So even though the per-bottle cost decreased,
their monthly expense on wine actually doubled! OBTW Pugsley's The
Alpha Strategy is highly recommended. It
is
available for free download, but I recommend also
picking
up a used
copy,
for
reference. They are often available through Amazon.com for less than
$5.
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Working Dogs and Horses in Bug Out and Retreat Planning, by TD
I have adopted many animals over the years and come to realize that sometimes
you do get great things for free, other times you get hurt. How do you pick
the right animals for you and your family? Do you get an animal just to suit
one purpose or do you get a mutt that will hopefully fit the bill? How do you
choose the right one?
Dogs
For dogs, first talk to someone who has the breed of dog you are most interested
in and find out about inherent defects and temperament problems. If you have
kids or grandkids make sure the dogs are safe to have around them. Unless you
get your dog trained, try not to get a very dominant breed, they will sometimes
fight the alpha for the position and it can really damage both you and the dog.
Remember the police departments stay away from females for patrol dog work for
a reason--they do have a tendency to be flighty when in season. Decide early
if you are going
to alter
or not, as when the grid goes down, you may lose the option.
A good dog, there are many, but not enough people that know how to pick the one
that suits. I have seen many animals go to the shelter because they got too big,
didn’t house break well, were hard to train, stubborn or was brought
in and treated like a child, then along came a child and the dog got jealous.
Many a hunting dog has been turned out due to being gun shy or lost due to poor
training. Down here, some people have no clue where their coon hound is for days
or weeks.
Remember that a pet is a pet and a working dog needs to be a working
dog. No
coddling,
no
sneaking
treats. The family or group needs to be on board totally. It doesn’t
take long to undo any training. Most states do have laws that might hinder your
keeping your dog outside at all times, only suggestion is to build a really nice
dog house that is insulated or move to a less oppressive state.
I have also learned that there is no replacing good training for any dog. Considering
the link from S. Africa that was mentioned on the blog, it would be a good
idea to train your dog not to take food from anyone but you. Not barking to
reveal
location, staying down until attacking, and hold and release are important
now and later. If you want your guard dog to not get you sued now, you need
to do
bite
work
with an experienced trainer. You need them perimeter trained so they will not
leave your property for anything unless you ask it. Protect your investment.
If
you do not live full time at your retreat, make your animals bug out bags and
make at least one trial run before the big day. Stock your retreat with dog
food (watch the expiration dates, when dog food goes bad your dog will get
sick and have the runs for days). You must also consider extra water for the
animals, write down how much
each animal drinks per day and that will give an idea of what to prepare. If
you have three weeks of water for you, you need it for them too. If your dog
stresses out,
make
sure you
have
a caloric supplement on hand. If they get car sick, give them motion sickness
pills (made for humans, works on animals, too). Buy a muzzle, if the dog gets
hurt you’ll be thankful you have one.
Your dog's essentials: at
least two leashes, crate, muzzle, nail clippers, food for the move, water
for the move, collapsible bowls for food and water,
first aid kit and medicines. Put index cards in your dog's bug out bag,
so that if it’s something less than TEOTWAWKI you
can write down info on your dog and yourself, so if you get sent someplace
other than your retreat, you will be
able to get your dog back. This was a nightmare after hurricanes Katrina and
Rita, and now we have serious problems with feral animals and the population
in general,
because
owners failed to identify their dogs or themselves. We won’t even
mention the ones left with little or no food and water because no one in
Louisiana
or
Mississippi
believed
that it could happen (even though it had happened before, in 1918).
Horses
Now for
horses, if you think you’re going to need one in the future, the
time to learn about them is now. The day in the life of a
horse owner: 6
am and time to feed (2 sections of hay if no grass is available and grain if
you need it), water and turn out (unless you have just pasture, in that case
you need to check your horse over well to make sure he didn’t run himself
through in the night), muck stalls. Been 8 weeks the horse needs a trim (unless
you have a farrier close by, this means you do it), depending on where you
live he may need new shoes. So you pick out all 4 hooves and get out the frog
trimmer
and the [hoof] rasp (a big file) and don’t trim too far or you’ll
be walking for the next four or more weeks. Brushing your horse may seem like
fun
for
him (it
is) but it also gives you time to look him over for injuries or disease. If
he has no cover he can get rain rot (fungus) and cause you to have to bathe
him.
Smell the hoof as you clean, if it smells funky it is hoof rot (thrush) and
needs to be tended to (bleach mixture or Thrush X).
If you have never broken a horse to ride, don’t start when you’re
40, buy a well broken horse so you can learn more and not get killed in the process.
Riding a green horse is more about the work you do on the ground, before you
ever get on the horse. Breaking to ride isn’t just getting on and praying.
It’s about trust and having the horse know you aren’t going to hurt
him. Unless you’re huge you can’t bully a horse and not get hurt.
One simple rule for horses is – once you have control of the head the body
follows. John Lyons does a wonderful training seminar and it is available on
DVDs, if you’re bent on going start to finish do it that way.
Make sure your horse ground ties (stops when the reins are dropped and stays),
work him over plastic, use him to haul deer out of the woods and work him so
that you can fire a gun near him. Do that by starting with a cap gun in the
same pen as the horse after he sees it. Then work your way up. Do it until
he acts
as if it’s nothing with the cap gun, then move to a .22.
The horse should reside full time at your retreat or at a full care facility
near it. The horse will probably weigh in at 1,000 pounds plus and not something
you
want to stress yourself or him over trying to move a huge distance when there
is a problem. There are going to be a lot of people trying to get out or get
in and to wait last minute with a large animal, is just asking for trouble.
A horse bug out bag is a tough one, hay for the ride and water, first aid kit
with an extra halter and a few leads. Wrap his legs before you leave, so he
won’t
damage them in the trailer. Bring a good hunk of cloth because if it gets bad,
cover the horses’ eyes and he will calm down. Make sure your retreat
is stocked with hay and grain, medicines you may need and buckets. - TD
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More About Front Sight's New "Get a Gun" Training and Gear Offer
Naish Piazza, the director of Front Sight sent me some of the frequently
asked questions about the "Get
a Gun" training
and gear package offer that I
mentioned in SurvivalBlog last week.
1.) What kind of Springfield Armory XD Pistol is given away in this offer?
A Standard Model 4" Barrel XD in your choice of 9mm, .40 S&W, or .45
ACP. The perfect balance for good gun handling, power, speed and concealability.
2.) Is it 4 days or 5 days of training at Front Sight?
You attend Front Sight's flagship Four Day Defensive Handgun Course, the course
everyone raves about and then stay one extra day for Front Sight 30 State Concealed
Weapon Permit Course so you can get more advanced concealed carry training
and walk away with everything you need, certificates, fingerprints,
and photos to secure CCWs
in Florida, Nevada, and Utah. With reciprocity
laws, these three permits allow you to carry concealed in over 30 states!
3.) When do I have to attend the course?
The certificate you received from Front Sight has no expiration date so you
can use it at any time in the future. Even when Front Sight's courses increase
in price, your certificate is inflation proof and will allow you to attend at no extra charge.
4.) How often does Front Sight offer this course?
Front Sight offers their Four Day defensive Handgun course and 30 State Concealed
Weapon Permit Course at least twice per month, every month except July and
August.
5.) What days of the week are the courses held? If taking the full five days,
the courses start on Friday and ends on Tuesday, so you don't have to miss
an entire
week of work, just a couple of days.
6.) Can I purchase the ammunition I need at Front Sight?
Yes. You can either bring factory new ammunition with you or purchase it from
Front Sight's pro shop.
7.) How far away is lodging?
Most students stay at one of three hotels within a 20 minute drive from Front
Sight's world-class 550 acre training facility. Hotel rates range from $40
per night to $75 per night.
8.) How do I get to Front Sight?
It is easy and inexpensive. Simply fly to Las Vegas, Nevada, rent a car, and
drive to Pahrump. Front Sight is a 45 minutes drive from Las Vegas or 20 minute
drive from Pahrump. Las Vegas is one of the least expensive cities in the world
to fly into from just about anywhere in the US.
9.) How long do I have to take advantage of Front Sight's offer?
Not long. The US
Concealed Carry Association (USCCA) members have already surpassed the
original number of guns and courses Dr. Piazza set aside for them. I was
able to get him to extend the offer but he only did so with the understanding
that he could stop it at any time with 48 hours notice, so take advantage
of it immediately.
10.) Where can I get more information about Front Sight and their courses?
Go to Front Sight's web
site and click on the link, Front
Sight Experience A-Z for answers to most if not all of your questions.
Well, I hope this answers most of your questions about this offer.
Don't forget, Dr. Piazza can end this promotion with very little warning. If
you're thinking of taking advantage of this great deal, then now is
the time to take action.
« Letter Re: Homemade Alcohol Stoves |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Retreat Livestock Guardians, by TD
When the grid goes down and predation goes up, from animals (wild and feral/formally
domesticated) and other people will be a very large problem. The television
show Jericho showed
some of the problems with diminished game and a lack of dogs and cats.
Right now a lot of city dwellers complain about the population of deer, raccoon,
opossum, coyote and others. In the city they are a problem right now. If something
drastic were to happen it would decimate those populations, removing most outside
food sources for cities. Most people, who do not hunt for food, hunt for trophies
and they do take a lot of natural predators. What happens when this stops?
Out in the country you will see an increase in natural and formally domestic
[feral] predators, therefore depleting the amount of game that can be found.
In
the city it will be far worse, dogs when they go feral run in packs and will
eat
almost
anything, they will attack humans. Even now in the country feral dogs prey on
livestock, taking calves, colts and lambs, larger packs will start taking larger
(full grown) animals as they need. How can this be stopped or slowed?
Then the biggest worry, other people. There are people now who, though it isn’t
for food, do steal livestock. Horse meat when at prime prices drives the theft
of horses to unimaginable extents, not tomorrow, but now. There is a lot of that
still
happening and with tattoos or micro chipping the slaughter houses don’t
have the resources to check as thoroughly as they could. Is there a deterrent?
What happens when the grid goes down and people are stealing to eat or for their
own gains?
If you have the land you need to raise your own stock and you need to be able
to protect it now and in the future. Do you have the resources to defend it?
If not what are your alternatives? Have you thought about livestock guardians?
What ones would best suit you?
Donkeys are a very good choice for a herd guardian against predators, not so
much against people. Sometimes you need to remove them during birthing then re-introduce
after the babies are a few days old. You can pack with them and ride them and
they will do damage to wolves, coyotes, bobcats, lynx and even mountain lions.
They can live to be in their thirties and do require the same care as do horses
(to a lesser extent). They are easy to handle if trained well and early.
Llamas are another good guardian, although they are not very good with dogs (I
have seen them chase and kill domestic pets). They can be used lightly and they
can spit very badly. They do need more grooming and can be aggressive at times
(depends on the sex and time of year).
The livestock guardian dog (LGD) is by far the best choice. These dogs are large,
wary of strangers, protective and will kill predators. Most of these dogs stand
over 25 inches at the shoulder and for females no less than 75 pounds and males
no less than 90 pounds, there are a few that top 120 pounds for females and 180 pounds
for
males. You do need to find the dog that will suit you and your climate and make
your
choices accordingly.
With herding dogs (except for collies) they work on a stalker prey drive that
can cost you livestock. You can see it in the working dogs eyes. With LGDs they
are part of the herd, they think that the animals and people are their siblings
and alpha dog (pack leader).
The dogs I have researched may cost more than your typical dogs, but they serve
a dual purpose and will not harm your livestock. Most of these dogs are low energy
and don’t eat much more than a German Shepherd after the age of 1 year.
Some do take longer to mature and some take more time to train, but when you
are done you have a dog that will take care of you and your other animals. With
the shear size of some of these dogs most people think twice before even getting
close to them.
The Komondor is an excellent example of LGD - This is an ancient Hungarian sheepdog
of Asiatic origin. In guarding herds of cattle and sheep, or house and property,
he displays dauntless courage. He attacks boldly and silently. He regards the
area he watches as his property, and will not tolerate strangers. He is distrustful
by nature. They need good training and you need to get to know them, I suggest
talking with breeders and trainers.
The Great Pyrenees is very popular throughout some of the small farming communities
in Tennessee - Character and temperament are of utmost importance. In nature,
the Great Pyrenees is confident, gentle, and affectionate. While territorial
and
protective
of his flock or family when necessary, his general demeanor is one of quiet composure,
both patient and tolerant. He is strong willed, independent and somewhat reserved,
yet attentive, fearless and loyal to his charges both human and animal.
The CAO (Central Asian Ovcharka or Shepherd)--a relatively new breed to the U.S.--does
deserve mention. They can handle all climates and they are used to working with
little or no supervision. For centuries, the Central Asian Shepherd Dog
worked alone or together with several other dogs, without much intervention from
the herdsmen, relying on its own intelligence and instincts to do its job. While
these dogs are very devoted to their family members, they expect to be treated
with respect. They are inclined to be suspicious of strange people or dogs. Central
Asians are steady, even-tempered dogs who adjust well to change in their environment.
When threatened, they react quickly and with complete seriousness. Central Asians
are slow to mature and require extensive socialization and patient training techniques.
This breed is hardy and able to adapt to a wide range of climates. Serious faults:
Irritable, nervous or fearful dogs are to be severely penalized.
Anatolian Shepherd is a large not quite as massive guardian, they are agile and
when they have the right temperament you can’t find a better dog. They
are being used a lot now for police work and the aggressiveness that is seen
is not the norm for these dogs.
Those are the breeds I have actually researched, looking for the dogs I will
be adding to our retreat. I will not just add 1 as when you breed responsibly
you can sell the puppies for the grid goes down or after they can be bartered.
There are numerous other breeds I am still gathering information on. There is
a lot of reference material available on training and picking a puppy. Refer
to Livestock Protection Dogs by Orysia Dowydiak and David Sims.It seems
to be a
favorite
online
and one featured
by the USDA at one of their web pages.
Here is a partial
list
of
other
LGDs
that
might be
suitable:
The Akbash, Maremma, Tibetan Mastiff, Aidi (Atlas Sheepdog), Castro Laboreiro,
Estrela Mountain Dog, Kangal, Kuvasz, Perro de Pastor Mallorquin, Polish Tatra,
Pyrenean Mastiff, Sarplaninac, South Russina Ovcharka, Spanish Mastiff, Tibetan
Kyi Apso, and the Tornjak.
« Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update |Main| Note from JWR: »
Economic Climate Change: The Long Winter May Begin This Summer
I've had several consulting clients contact me in recent weeks, all with notes
of fear in their voices. They realize that something is horribly wrong with
the economy, but they cannot properly isolate and articulate the problem. I
haven't been able to calm them, however, because to an extent I share their
anxiety.
In
my estimation,
the "something wrong" that we sense is nothing short of a monumental
shift in the
economic
climate.
America is clearly headed for a recession. Most economic recessions are simply
a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they
often last
just
12
to 24 months.
The
economic
engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But this
nascent recession in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be
short-lived.
The current slow down was triggered
by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market
grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw
trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent
than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political
cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably
captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our
cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt
nemesis will soon
be clear to everyone.
Because modern banking in the western world
is based on interest charges that create continuously
compounding debt, credit cannot continue
to
grow
indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great
that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking
panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly
debt gets
destroyed
by margin calls and subsequent business failures.
Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically
expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves.
(They can't do that any more than I could predict the
bends in the road ahead by keeping a chart of the preceding left and right
turns
of
my
car's steering wheel. My apologies for any offense to my friend The
Chartist Gnome, but you
are fooling yourself.) Although they are working from a flawed premise at
the micro level, the chartists do
have
some
things
right
on the macro
level:
There are major
economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists
like Robert
Prechter hold to what is called the
Elliot
Wave Theory.
And
the big
bad
nasty
in this school of thought is a Kon
