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Friday May 2 2008

Letter Re: Turning Your Trinkets Into Storage Food

Dear Mr. Rawles,
As I was divesting of the useless flotsam one sees as a hindrance to true preparedness, I was inspired to list my trinkets on eBay. (Now, for all those who have a hatred for eBay [because of their anti-gun policies] , this is a separate issue.) I also have a PayPal account. That is another stumbling block to some. But for those of us who are still making the transition to becoming prepared citizens (from their former place in the herd of sheeple), this may be a very viable opportunity. Please hear me out!

So, you sell your trash on EBay and get a [positive] PayPal “cash balance”. Fees notwithstanding, this “cash balance” spends like “cyber cash” with vendors who accept PayPal, if “cash” is such a thing in cyber space, but again, that is not my point here. It is a means to an end. Nothing more.

And we should all agree that there is no point in using credit to stock up. So my solution is turn trash into cash and then cash into stash!

Fir example Honeyville Grain accepts PayPal and sells brown rice, wheat, flour, and the food grade buckets and Oxygen absorbers to store it all--nearly anything you could want. And here is the kicker: they charge a flat fee of $ 4.95, regardless of the size of your order!

I know it is not as simple as a trip down to your local COSTCO, but we have seen how that works lately. The prices may not be dirt cheap, but for a person who is home bound, in a difficult geographical area (high rise dweller), or at a distance to supplies, you can sell useless white elephant trash on eBay, print postage right off your computer, the mailman comes and gets it, you earn a “cash balance” in your PayPal account, you order your food, and it comes to your door. "Easy peasy."

I do hope that the ambivalence some feel toward eBay and Paypal will not stand in the way of your sharing what may well be a very useful tool for someone who needs creative solutions for preparedness in this fast changing situation. Most kindly, and Semper Fidelis - Laura C. in Virginia
P.S.: My friend the former Marine calls me “Caroline Ingalls, Olivia Walton, and Sarah Conner all rolled into one!”

JWR Replies: Keep in mind that Honeyville's prices (pr pound) tend to be higher, since they "build in" the shipping costs to their prices. Also note that several SurvivalBlog advertisers accept payment via PayPal for non-gun related merchandise.

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Saturday April 19 2008

Raising Rabbits for Meat , by Pete C.

In most industrialized countries, including the United States, rabbits are not commonly considered a meat animal. However, before a TEOTWAWKI situation arises, small retreats may seriously want to consider raising rabbits as a reliable source of meat to feed their family, to use as barter or charity.

Rabbits are fairly easy to raise which makes them especially adaptive for small retreats (to include urban areas) where limited space for other livestock - cows, hogs, goats, chickens, etc., are just not practical. In addition, many localities may not consider rabbits as live stock since they are often pets. Thus they may be permitted where other animals would not be. If you keep the area clean and the smell down, neighbors might not even know that you have them.

Picking your breed:
Before you purchase your rabbits (or any animal), learn as much as you can about keeping and raising them. Books, breeder magazines, and the internet have a wealth of information on every topic imaginable. So before you jump in, do your homework.

Once you decide to raise rabbits for meat, your most essential requirement is that you get good quality breeding stock, from a reputable breeder and not your local pet store. Purchase the best animals that you can afford, since the quality of future litters will depend upon the parents. I recommend either the Californian or the New Zealand White. Both types are by far the most popular meat rabbits, of a medium-weight (8-11 pounds), have high milk production, frequently procreate and have large litters.

Since rabbits are more suited for temperate or cool climates better than hot ones, those living in warmer climates will need to purchase stock already accustomed to such weather. Also, make sure that your stock rabbits you receive are clean, alert, bright-eyed, with dry ears and nose, and no sores on the feet.

How many to start with?
As with many things, when we get started, we often make mistakes. For those new to rabbits, the most common mistake is starting off with too many at once. A good rule of thumb might be one buck (male) and three does (females). Usually does are larger and can be distinguished by the presence of a dewlap, which is flap of fur below the chin that she pulls to cover her nest during pregnancy.
Rabbit prices can vary considerably depending on quality. A young rabbit could go for next to nothing (family just trying to get rid of a litter) to a few hundred dollars (high quality show rabbit) – do not worry because you want meat rabbits. Most of the time however, you will not find breeding age rabbits, especially for meat. It just does not pay for a breeder to feed a young rabbit to breeding age if he does not plan to use the rabbit for himself. If you do find breeding age meat rabbits, they may be inferior or too old for breeding. It is always best to start with newly weaned rabbits (eight weeks) and care for them for the four months or so, so that they can become acclimated to their new environment prior to breeding age (of six months). You should be able to find decent quality newly weaned rabbits for as little as $15.00 each.

As you become comfortable and more accustomed to the work/time required and what you just got into; should you then increase the size of your herd. Maybe another buck (or two as insurance if something should happen to one of them) and three more does, but no more than a one-to-five ratio.

Disease:
Rabbits are very hardy and have few diseases. However, since most rabbit diseases cannot be cured, it is recommended that the diseased animal be disposed. Removal of one sick animal can also save your entire stock, since disease can spread quickly between the herd. Most rabbit diseases cannot be transmitted to humans. Remember, cleanliness is the single biggest contributor to your stocks health. Clean living space, quality feed and fresh water at all times go a long way.

Space & Housing:
Rabbits are also fairly easy to care for once you have established suitable housing. It can be something very basic (wire-mesh hutch), since cold is no real problem for rabbits. The hutch should however, provide protection from drafts, rain and intense heat. Each rabbit should also have its own hutch (or cage). This way if disease should hit an individual rabbit, it will not easily spread and potentially wipe out your entire herd. Individual cages can be placed in a garage, an empty shed or outdoors (these should be well protected from the weather). Space is often not a problem because cages can be stacked on one another. When comparing rabbits to larger meat animals (cattle, hogs, etc.,) rabbits are much more efficient users of space.

Hutches should be approximately two feet by three feet and at least 18 - 24 inches in height with one inch mesh for the sides (allowing for adequate ventilation) and half-inch mesh for the floors (so that droppings can fall through to the cleaning tray) without catching the rabbits’ feet. Mount cages at a convenient height that will make feeding, cleaning and maintenance easier for you. Clean and disinfect the trays on a regular basis; scrubbing and disinfecting the cages/trays between each litter.

If the hutches are outside, they should be placed in a partially shaded area. The rabbits should always be given their choice between shade and sunshine. If cages do not have shade, they will need to have a double roof in order to help keep the rabbits cool. In addition, canvas or plastic flaps can be added (to be unrolled) to cover the mesh when it rains. The does’ cage should also have space for a nesting box – one foot high by one foot deep and approximately twenty inches wide with a six inch high front panel to help keep newborns inside. The males’ cage should be located between the does’ cages. The Memsahib Adds: I encourage rabbit owners to build (or buy) all metal cages. Wood frames get urine-soaked and eventually become a health hazard. The only wood included should be a resting board (to prevent the rabbits from getting sore legs and feet, and those boards should be changed regularly. Also the Memsahib strongly disagrees with the statement that the rabbits should be in a partially shaded area. Rabbits are much more sensitive to heat than cold. We have always located our pens on the north side of the house in full shade. We have never lost a rabbit to cold, but people who have purchased our rabbits have lost rabbits to heat stroke mid-summer when they have not followed our advice. When the temperature climbs above 90 degrees, we wet down the entire rabbit area to provide cooling through evaporation. Some rabbit fanciers put a block of ice in each pen. Others have fans to cool down the hutches. But these last two methods will be useless, post-TEOTWAWKI.

Food & Water:
Specially prepared rabbit pellets provide the best diet for a breeding herd. Pellets are nutritious, inexpensive (our local feed store sells 50 pound bags for less then $12.50 each), store well and are easy to feed. Of the many different types of pellets, you should get those that are small in size, placing them in a hopper so as to avoid waste. Pellets can be supplemented with tender hay, fresh grass clippings, vegetable greens / roots, apples, apple branches, and weeds such as dandelions, which may be easily available. Just like us, rabbits also require salt. Therefore, you may want to provide your herd salt licks.

To supplement the rabbit’s diet while giving them a bit more exercise (to help maintain a healthy herd), place several rabbits in a movable wire pen (approximately four or five feet square) and placing the pen throughout your yard. As the rabbits eat the fresh grass and weeds to a comfortable height; move the cage to another location. The yard is quietly cut and the rabbits are fed with little effort at all.
As with any animal, clean fresh water is essential. Water bottles may be used when temperatures are above freezing (otherwise metal pans or crockery bowls may be used). Change the water on a daily basis. A doe and her litter may drink as much as one gallon of water per day.

[In the Memsahib's experience mature does are too territorial to be placed in such a confined area. This would work with littermates of the same sex before they reached sexual maturity. The rabbits should all be put in the pen at the same time.]

Mating & Birth:
Medium-weight rabbits such as the New Zealand White are ready to breed at about six months. Signs to look for in females are restlessness, attempts to join other rabbits, or a tendency to rub her head against the cage. Once a doe reaches maturity, it is fertile almost continuously. Place the female in the male’s cage; where mating should take place almost immediately. If it does not, bring the female back to her own cage and try again within a few days. Never bring the male to the female’s cage. She may see him as an intruder and attack him out of fear.
Approximately twelve days after mating, check for pregnancy by feeling the abdomen area just above the pelvis, trying to locate the small marble-shaped embryos. Make sure that you handle the doe gently and use only light pressure. If you feel nothing, check again in about a week; re-breed if necessary.

[Memsahib I think there is too much chance of injury palpitating the embryos. Though does can mate at any time, conception is improved by mating them when the does' vulva is swollen and dark. Careful observation will show this happens on a three day cycle. If the doe is not receptive to the buck, she likely will be the following day or the day after. Mating can take place in as little as 15 seconds. But usually the buck and doe will chase each other around the pen for a few minutes. If the doe grunts and stomps her hind feet place her back in her own pen immediately. Be careful that she does not bite. If the doe is receptive she will stop and slightly raise her haunches. If the buck is successful he will suddenly fall off the doe like he has been shot. Watch for this! It can happen very quickly. Return the doe to her own pen. Mating will stimulate ovulation so be certain to bring the doe back to the buck's pen for a repeat mating eight hours later. In this way you will maximize the size of the litter. Using this method I have never failed to get a doe bred.]

Birth ["kindling"] occurs within 30 days after conception, providing an average number of seven young (called “kits”) per litter, but can range from two to twelve. Since a doe can become pregnant, given the right conditions, by the simple act of mating; she can get pregnant soon after birth. For the animals safety however, it is recommended that each doe have no more then three or four litters per year. Make sure that you place the nesting box (with fresh hay to insure warmth) at least five days before the young are due. The doe will begin pulling fur from her dewlap to line and soften the nest as well.

Most likely, the litter will be born at night. Complications are rare when the doe is in good condition and not over feed. Make sure not to disturbed the new family for a day or two, so that the doe can calm. Then distract the doe with some tempting food so that you can look inside the box; removing any dead or deformed young. Be assured, the doe can take care of her young herself. Therefore, no hand-raising or special equipment, such as incubators or brooders will ever be needed.

Kits are born hairless with their eyes closed. Their fur will begin to grow in by day five or six, after ten to twelve days the kits' eyes will open. At the age of three weeks their mother will begin to wean them off milk (but will continue to nurse them until they are eight weeks), during this time, the kits will begin to eat hay and pellets becoming accustomed to the feed. Anytime thereafter, from eight to twelve weeks old, they will be ready for butchering, dressing out four to five pounds of meat each.

You may however also decide to keep a few of the new rabbits for more productivity or to replace a buck or doe that you might have lost. Although rabbits can live anywhere from seven to twelve years, having a few extra never hurts.

Slaughtering, skinning and butchering:
These are the tasks that no one really likes, but remember these animals are providing food for your family. Again, there are many resources describing the different methods employed and you are encouraged to read up on each. Each task however, is fairly simple and straight forward. A skilled person can take a rabbit from cage to fryer in under 30 minutes or less. Note: To facilitate butchering, do not feed the rabbit for at least twenty-four hours prior to slaughter. This will help to clear out the animal’s digestive system.

I will discuss one interesting method that was first given to me as instruction of survival during my training at the U.S. Army Ranger School. It will cause the animal the least amount of stress, it is considered quick, painless, and humane.
Begin by holding the rabbit in your arms, petting it to make sure that it is calm. After a few minutes, hold the animal by the hind legs with one hand, placing your thumb of the other hand on the neck just behind the ears and your fingers under the chin. Stretch the animal by pushing down with your thumb; then raise the animal’s head with a quick movement to dislocate the neck.

The next stage may sound strange but will assist you in skinning the carcass. The objective here is to quickly remove the animal’s pelt cleanly, neatly and with minimum damage to either the hide. Since skinning is a skill that requires experience; I will explain what I call the “pen method.” For this, make sure that you have your black US Government Skillcraft pen disassembled and on hand, as you will need it.

With your skinning knife, make your first incision small on one of the back legs just below the hock (insert the blade under the skin so that only the hide gets cut). Now take the pen placing the silver tip in the incision, between the hide and flesh. With the half-pen sticking out, blow hard into the opening. The forced in air will go between the hide and flesh separating the two, making the rabbit the size of a basketball. (This same method can also be used on chickens, producing a skinless bird, no plucking required).

Use your knife a second time to increase the first incision by cutting around the rest of the leg. Do the same thing on the other leg. A cut is then made along the inside of the back legs from one foot to the base of the tail; continue the incision to the other leg. The hide can now be easily removed by pulling it off like a sweater. There should be little resistance, however if there is any, use the knife to free the hide. The last step is to free the pelt by incising a circle around the neck. The pelt can also be saved to make clothes, used for barter or even charity.

Once the skinning is complete, remove the head so that the carcass can bleed out. Next remove the entrails. To do this, split the body open down the medium line of the belly near the anus to the sternum. Special care should be taken not to nick the gall bladder as this will taint the meat. The entrails are then removed; the kidney and liver can be saved. The sternum is then cut and the lungs, heart and trachea are removed (save the heart as well). Lastly, cut the pubic bone and remove the rectum.

Wash the carcass with cold water, giving it a thorough rinsing to remove stray fur and blood. Drop the carcass in a bucket of cold (ice) water for five minutes. Repeat with a second bucket; helping to further cool the meat. This will complete the bleeding process and making it easier to cut into pieces. Note: Do not leave the carcass in the bucket for more than fifteen minutes since it will absorb water.

Lastly, use your knife to divide the rabbit into serving pieces (usually seven to nine cuts – high in protein/ low in fat). Never use a cleaver so as to avoid leaving bone splinters. You can now bake, boil, fry, roast, salt or smoke your rabbit as you wish. Review your survival cooking library for delicious recipes, and enjoy.

Conclusion:
Since rabbits are fairly inexpensive, have few diseases, multiply quickly and are easy to care for, it is recommended that small retreats with limited space consider raising them as a reliable source of meat. Not only will you be able to feed you family, but help others in need. Remember, as with any new skill, do not wait until a TEOTWAWKI situation arises as the time to learn something new. Good-luck and God Bless!

References:
American Federation of New Zealand Rabbit Breeders
American Rabbit Breeders Association
Professional Rabbit Meat Association
Angier, Bradford. "One Acre and Security". Willow Creek Press, 2000

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Three Letters Re: Preparedness Considerations for College Students

Dear Jim:
A suggestion for storing preparedness supplies while in college: Get a small self storage unit at a local self-store. I had one all through college, which made it much easier to move from apartment to apartment, as college students often do. It was very reasonably priced.

I made sure it was in a storage facility that actually locks and closes at night. The unit was on the north side of the building, so it did not get as hot as other units. Nowadays, many cities have indoor, climate controlled facilities that are even more secure.

The advantages are that your gear is all in one place, ready to go. I consider the facilities more secure than dwellings. They are certainly more anonymous than dwellings, as no one except who you tell will know anything about your personal business, and what is stored there. And as stated before, it makes moving much easier. - Mark R. in New Mexico

 

Sir:

My comment on the college student who advises petroleum geologist as a post-TEOTWAWKI career and advises against anything to do with electricity. My advice would be the opposite. Anything to do with oil requires a huge infrastructure of refineries, financial institutions et cetera, while small hydro, wind and solar will still be going and still viable. The current production output dictates that there will be electric heaters, motors, computers etc available and anyone who can make or keep them operational will be in demand. I live in an area where almost all of the current production is hydro and because the plants are so old (50-90 years) they would still operating, especially small ones in out of the way places that are either not on the grid now or can be configured to run off the grid. - Karen L.

 

Hi -
Regarding Sam's recent comments to avoid any career involving a computer, I believe that to be unwise advice. As with any career choice, there are sub-specialties within a given field that can be very lucrative. I've been an I.T. security professional for over 15 years, and I can say firsthand that choosing anything to do with networks or better yet information assurance and security would be a very, very wise choice.

Demand for skilled, intelligent computer and network security professionals is at an all-time high, and is increasing steadily. Further, the quality of the people graduating and the quality of those who have been in I.T. for 3 years or more is steadily decreasing. This is creating a "perfect storm" of high demand and low supply which translates directly into increased income, basically allowing a skilled I.T. security pro to name their price. On my team alone we have had two openings that we cannot fill and we've been interviewing so-called candidates (I use the term loosely since these folks barely qualified at any level) for months.

Information security is an even better choice if, like Sam and many others, you subscribe to the long, slow decline theory rather than the cataclysmic event theory of preparedness. As society slowly disintegrates, the demand for information security pros by large corporations, governments and even well-to-do individuals will only increase. People and companies will always want to make money...think of the TV series "Jericho" to see what I mean.

The trick is to keep your skills and training up to date, and to keep yourself from getting locked into any one position or company (or even geographical location) for any length of time. Stay mobile...a "hired gun" or troubleshooter, for example. A solid information security pro can easily command a salary in the $100,000-$200,000 range even in the Midwest. With the right combination of certifications, experience, and skills, a good pro can make even more working for a large company or law firm on the coasts, in the South, or even overseas.

A frugal prepper working as an infosys security pro for 3-5 years or so could sock away a serious amount of money, more than enough to buy a sizable chunk of productive land outright and stock it with everything needed to go off the grid. The point is not to over-react to what you think will happen...leverage your skills to make as much income as possible while you can, live well below your means, and use the difference to launch and establish the lifestyle you really want.

Another group in the I.T. industry that is in high demand are the business continuity and disaster recovery specialists, as well as facilities management professionals. Again, as things get worse in our society, the demand for people who can help ensure business continuity (and business security) for a large corporation can make a very respectable salary. In my experience, companies like GE, Proctor&Gamble, Wal-Mart, pharmaceutical companies, et cetera will do everything they can to keep making money no matter what, even if it looks like the world is ending, and they will pay handsomely for people who can help them do it. - JT

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Tuesday April 8 2008

Letter Re: Horse Breeding Now, and in the Future

Jim,
I wanted your opinion on something. I raise Quarter horses, mostly show prospects and have done this for a lifetime. I own the stallion, I do the breeding of my own mares and ship [straws of frozen] semen all over the country for others. I also train outside horses for a living. As you well know the horse economy like everything else is going down the tubes. I have been down sizing for the past three years as the Holy Spirit has prompted [my string] going [down] from 60 to 30. I did not breed any of my mares back this year and my focus is continuing to downsize. I know the job these horses were bred for is no longer going to be available. They will be needing a new job. My question to you is, do you think there would be a market through SurvivalBlog for any of my stock? I breed for good minds, great bones and of course movement (which I understand would not matter to a survivalist) disposition and beauty. These are hearty horses, I believe they could make great work horses, pack horses or just about anything you asked them to be. I think the catch for the horses I would have available would be the fact that some are untrained 2 and 3 year olds. I'm madly working on breaking this last big group, but I can only ride so many a day.
It is just a passing idea. This is my web site if you want to take a peek at what I have. Thanks for your time and honesty. God Bless, - Merry

JWR Replies: In the short term, it might be a good idea to reduce your breeding stock, but in the long term, your brood mares may make you wealthy. I'm sure that some SurvivalBlog readers will be contacting you, particularly looking for mares.

One of the biggest concerns for horse owners, at present, is the high price of feed. The global grain shortage has pushed up feed prices tremendously. Because grain prices will remain high, I expect hay prices to stay high, in sympathy. (Markets are all about supply and demand.) It didn't help that last spring and summer were dry in the western US, and most hay growers only got one marketable cutting. This pushed hay prices up to insane prices. This prompted many cattlemen and horse breeders to thin their herds.

In the long term, however, high fuel prices and spot shortages will likely cause a resurgent interest in working horses. This is most likely in regions with lush pasture and plentiful hay. In the arid west, where hay is a product of circular irrigation, working horses probably won't make quite so strong a comeback.

In a post-Peak Oil collapse, horse breeding stock--for both draft horses and saddle horses--would be like gold.

My advice: If you don't have extensive pastures and own your own hay ground and hence buy a lot of hay each year, then thin your string of brood mares down to just your very best couple of dozen, for the next few years. However, maintain your ranch infrastructure, so that you can "ramp up" to larger production, if need be. Do not sell off any pasture ground, hay ground, stock panels, or haying equipment! Also, hang on to every saddle and piece of tack that you own. In fact, if you have the chance to buy more tack (as the horse market continues to crash), and you have a secure storage space that will keep it safe from mold and mice, then invest in more tack. Doing so will take advantage of the fire sale prices on tack that we will no doubt see for the next few years. To amplify on our previous exchange of e-mail: You can breed horses, but you can't breed tack. In a few years, all those new horse buyers will be screaming for saddles and tack! Buy low and sell high.

One ironic situation we may see in the next decade: All over rural America, there are antique horse-drawn hay mowers that are now rusting away as yard ornaments. I predict that many of them will be oiled up and pressed into service. Hopefully, they won't be too far gone.

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Friday April 4 2008

Economic Climate Change: The Long Winter May Begin This Summer

I've had several consulting clients contact me in recent weeks, all with notes of fear in their voices. They realize that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they cannot properly isolate and articulate the problem. I haven't been able to calm them, however, because to an extent I share their anxiety. In my estimation, the "something wrong" that we sense is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate.

America is clearly headed for a recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last just 12 to 24 months. The economic engine just readjusts and everything soon gets back to normal. But this nascent recession in 2008 is something radically different, and it won't be short-lived. The current slow down was triggered by a collapse in the global credit market. For decades, the global credit market grew and grew, in an enormous debt spiral. Our neighbors to the south saw trouble coming decades ago, because their economies were at the time more debt-dependent than our own. As far back as the mid-1980s, their newspapers featured political cartoons that portrayed an enormous, insatiable monster that was invariably captioned "La Dueda"--"The Debt". Our cousins in Latin America saw it coming first, but the dark side of the debt nemesis will soon be clear to everyone.

Because modern banking in the western world is based on interest charges that create continuously compounding debt, credit cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the excesses of malinvestment become so great that the entire system collapses. This is what we are now witnessing: a banking panic that is spreading uncontrollably as wave after wave of ugly debt gets destroyed by margin calls and subsequent business failures.

Some economists are fixated on reading charted histories--and unrealistically expect that by doing so that the can reliably predict future market moves. (They can't do that any more than I could predict the bends in the road ahead by keeping a chart of the preceding left and right turns of my car's steering wheel. My apologies for any offense to my friend The Chartist Gnome, but you are fooling yourself.) Although they are working from a flawed premise at the micro level, the chartists do have some things right on the macro level: There are major economic "seasons" and even climate changes. The most vocal chartists like Robert Prechter hold to what is called the Elliot Wave Theory. And the big bad nasty in this school of thought is a Kondratieff Winter. This "K-Winter" is an economic depression phase that the world has not fully experienced since the 1930s. An economic winter does not end until after the foundations of industry and consumer demand are rebuilt. This can be a painful process, often culminating with war on a grand scale. (It was no coincidence that the Second World of the early 1940s was an outgrowth of the Great Depression of the 1930s.)

The US Federal Reserve and the other central banks are furiously pumping liquidity to the best of their ability, but in the long run they will not be successful. At best, dumping billions in cash on the economy will delay a depression by perhaps a year or two. But inevitably, a K-Winter depression will come. And the longer that it is delayed, then the worse the depression will be. Further inflating the debt bubble will only make matters worse. I think that veteran market analyst Jim Rogers had it right, in a recent interview. Take a few minutes to watch that video. Jim Rogers sees the big picture. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that he has gone off somewhere to hunker in a bunker.

"Big Picture" Implications

As I've mentioned before, hedge funds are presently most at risk in the unfolding liquidity crisis, because they use lots of leverage in lending funds that they themselves have borrowed. They borrow short and lend lon, effectively use debt compounded upon debt. Many, many hedge funds will be bankrupted before the end of 2008.

Even more alarming is the scale of global derivatives trading, particularly for credit default swaps (CDS). Derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, so derivatives contract holders have not yet experienced a major recession or a depression. Thus, it is difficult to predict what will happen in a genuine K-Winter phase. In a perfect world, derivatives are a nicely balanced mechanism, where there are parties and counterparties, and every derivatives contract equation balances out to have a neat "zero" at its conclusion. But we don't live in a perfect world: Companies go bankrupt. Contracts get breached. Counterparties disappear and disappoint. We have not ever experienced a derivatives full scale "blow up", but I predict that when it happens, it will be spectacular.

The scale of derivatives trading is monumental, and the vast majority of the population is blissfully ignorant of both its scale and the implications of a derivatives crisis. There are presently about $500 trillion of derivatives contracts in play. That is many times the size of the gross product of the global economy, but the average man on he street has no idea what is going on. It won't be until after the giant derivatives casino implodes that the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) awakens and asks, "What the heck happened?" Since the credit market began to collapse last summer, the number of new derivatives contracts has dropped precipitously. But whether the aggregate derivative market is $400 trillion versus $500 trillion, when a crisis occurs there will undoubtedly be some very deep drama.

The next decade will likely be characterized by successive waves of inflation and deflation, and perhaps some of both simultaneously, at different levels. Countless corporations, and perhaps a few currencies or even whole governments will go under as this tumult plays out. The current low interest rates will soon be replaced by double-digit rates, much like we saw in the late1970s. The dollar will lose value in foreign exchange, and may collapse completely. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will result in mass inflation. The bull markets in silver and gold will surge ahead, propelled by economic and currency instability. (Investors will be desperate to find a safe haven, when currencies and equities are falling apart.)

Risk Mitigation

Be ready to "winter over" the coming K Winter depression. That will require: 1.) Prayer. 2.) Friends that you can count on (a "retreat group"). 3.) A deep larder, and 4.) An effective means of self defense with proper training. (For each of those four factors, see the hundreds of archived articles and letters at SurvivalBlog.com for details.)

Since large-scale layoffs seem likely, it would also be wise to have a second income from a recession-proof home-based business.

In the event of a "worst case" (grid down) economic collapse, it would be prudent to have a self-sufficient retreat in a rural area that is well-removed from major population centers. Get the majority of your funds out of anything that is dollar-denominated, and into tangibles, as soon as possible. The very best tangible that you can buy is a stout house on a piece of productive farm land. It will not only preserve your wealth, but living there may very well save your life.

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Tuesday April 1 2008

Letter Re: Learn How to "Roll Your Own" Ammo

James;
One skill that will be in great demand by almost everyone in a post-TEOTWAWKI environment will be a skilled and resourceful ammunition reloader. Equipment is relatively inexpensive and downright cheap if you know where to look. Pawn shops almost never buy reloading equipment because it is slow and, or difficult to move. I have made arrangements with a few pawn shop owners and when a batch of reloading stuff comes available from estates they just give them my number. No matter how much gear there is, a pawn shop will only offer, if they even make an offer about a hundred bucks. I usually try to offer the widows a fair price but in the end you are still buying for pennies on the dollar. Often reloading gear will be given to you if you show an interest and a little respect.

It is an opportunity to acquire odd caliber dies, bullets, brass and often large stores of powder. The old reloading books are great references for older powders that will still be usable if stored properly. Always store your powder in a cool, dry and dark place. I am using some 30 year old powder that was stored this way and it works just fine. One can never have too much powder, [too many primers,] or too many reloading manuals.

Any gun shop that sells reloading equipment has free loading data provided my the powder and bullet manufactures and these small books can be acquired by writing, calling or going to the powder and bullet companies web sites. These are invaluable resources as they try to show case how versatile their products can be and the large reloading manuals will leave out some less than ideal powder, bullet, caliber combinations that we may be forced to try some day simply because of space limitations and the large manuals are somewhat expensive although necessary. Remember that we are trying to make safe reliable ammo that will suffice for the purpose at hand and we are not trying to come up with the perfect powder, bullet combo that will better factory ballistics.

JWR is right when he suggests that you stock only common caliber ammo in large quantities for yourself. However, there are still going to be quite a few .32 Winchester Special, 38-55 and especially 30-30 Winchesters around that will need ammunition and all three of those caliber cases can be made from fired .30-30 cases. A host of calibers can have their brass cases formed from the very common .30-06 such as .270 Winchester and .25-06 just by sizing the necks down. The.308 Winchester (7.62x51mm) is the parent case for .243 Win,..260 Rem, and 7mm-08. Simple neck resizing is all that is necessary and all it takes is a little knowledge and the correct dies.

Much more elaborate cartridge conversions can be done by annealing the cartridge brass (necks only--never the bases) simply by standing the cases in an inch of water, heating them until red with a torch and then knocking them over to cool in the water. This softens the brass and makes splitting case necks less likely. Brass work hardens as it is reloaded and this process is a useful skill to prolong case life even for common calibers. Calibers like the 7.5x55mm Schmidt Rubin in the well made Swiss [K31] rifles that have flooded the market the past few years are easy to fabricate from the very common .308 Win cases if you know where to look for specs and the place to look is "The Handloaders Manual of Cartridge Conversions" by Donnelly & Towsley from Stoeger Publishing. It is a great resource and it covers more than 1,000 cartridges in detail with accurate drawings, capacities and dimensions. With this book a set of good calipers, micrometer and reloading data there are very few calibers that one can not reloaded.

Anytime someone asks you if you want a small lot of odd caliber of brass take it and clean, sort and store it. It doesn't matter if you don't have a gun in that caliber, someone, somewhere will or it might be used to create cases for another caliber There are only four sizes of boxer primers so stock up on those. Large rifle, small rifle, large pistol and small pistol and don't worry about magnum primers just use one of the hotter standard primers such as Winchester 's Stainless. The only caveat here is gas auto loading rifles should only use CCI #34 or #41 hard military primers to prevent slam fires.

There are some powders that are very versatile and can be used for many calibers, for example Unique handgun powder can be used for just about every pistol caliber. It might not be the perfect choice for certain cartridges but it would certainly serve the purpose.

Reloading skills can be bartered for other things because a firearm without ammunition doesn't even make a good club. As charity you might be the only person that can give a family a means of self defense by reloading ammo for them that is impossible to obtain any other way.

Since you can't reload .22 rimfire ammo, buy a couple of the 550 round boxes every time that you are at Wal-Mart, or mail order 5,000 round. cases. This is something that almost everyone can afford. While you are making connections at the pawn shops pick up some used .22 rifles, I often can buy Glenfield and Marlin autos for less than 50 bucks apiece if I shop in the spring and avoid the 1st and 15th of the month and go on the first of the week. Pawn shop owners are more likely to cut you a deal at these times because of cash flow. What a great trade item or gift to some deserving but unprepared family

Bullet casting equipment is often included with reloading equipment and this simple skill is another arrow in your quiver. The Cast Bullet Association has a free forum that has a wealth of knowledge and any question that you have will be answered by the top experts in this field in an informative and entertaining way. Cast bullets were used for all hunting and war purposes for centuries before jacketed bullets came along in the late 1800s. You will notice that some of the cast bullet rifle shooters are getting 10 shot groups around an inch at 200 yards! I assure you that my efforts have never been that amazing but then I'm not a top competitor.

Making bullets and reloading ammo could make your talents very sought after over a fairly large geographic area so be prudent about your security measures. Word of your skills might bring about many barter opportunities that otherwise might be impossible. As charity, you might save an entire family's lives for very little investment of resources and we all want to help the good guys out if we can. Folks will want to insure your safety if you have built up a relationship with them and provide a necessary service.

I have an extensive list of reloading equipment but have invested less than the cost of a FAL or M1A. I've been at this for almost 40 years now and have taught Boy Scouts, housewives, service veterans, preachers or anyone that asked the necessary skills to produce quality ammunition. Several times I have been given firearms simply because ammo was unavailable and I haven't failed to produce good safe ammo for any gun yet. Get your beans, bullets and band-aids in order first, and then get started looking for the tools and acquire the skills to become the community Ammo Cobbler. - East Tennessee Hillbilly

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Saturday March 29 2008

Family Learning for Preparedness, by T.D.

My husband and I are like minded, (he realized way before I did), and he and I didn’t meet until I was in my mid-thirties. I was considered weird, called a tomboy and later, a gear head. Don’t get me wrong, I cook, sew, knit and crochet. I had many interests though and wanted to learn.

What I have seen lately and in some people we met that are like minded, is the lack of initiative on the part of some spouses. I have seen some women and men that will ridicule their spouses or will just roll their eyes and feign interest. I have seen some that their spouses have prepared and bought supplies but their other half has no clue even how to do the basics. If you are truly vested in being prepared, your spouse and children need to brush up on the basics also. This should give you some good ideas on how to learn where you are lacking.

Do you have a grain mill? Mortar and pestle? Does he/she know the basics? Can all of you bake and cook from scratch? Are your children picky or will they eat everything you put in front of them? Can they sew? Do they know the basics on edible plants? Can they hunt or fish? Can your children do what is needed? Can you do the repairs needed to your home/vehicle?

Our daughter is 16 and she is learning about cars, she can fish with the best of them and she is a good shot. Our youngest is three years old and he will be learning as we go. Both will be able to cook (one does now), sew, set traps, care for farm animals, strip and clean weapons, basic survival, fix the family relic (car) and hopefully get through anything that is thrown at them.

The first step is to start early – my husband is Creole and we eat a lot most people don’t. Turtle soup, crawfish, head cheese and some even eat tripe. My son will eat everything he is offered, he was eating crawfish when he only had 2 teeth. So our routine was this; we fix it and tell you later what it is. It works well with older kids; younger kids will eat what mom and dad eat. It is a well known fact that most really young or really old will not eat a “different” diet, unless they have been doing so all along.

When your child starts showing interest in guns, at about 6-7 years old, take them hunting. Show them what guns do. My father did that I have always had respect for what they can do. Children love doing what mom and dad do so they will take to hunting with pride. We start ours fishing at 2-3 years old for small fish and getting them used to being around the water supervised. They know how to check nets and bait hooks by the time they’re 5, that’s when we teach them how to clean the fish (mom or dad using the sharp knife).

With cars teach them as soon as they’re out of a booster seat. I have seen too many men and women who can’t even check the oil in their own cars. Your children should be a help in most situations not a hindrance, even if it’s just handing you the tools you need. Our three year old will do most simple tasks he is shown and he does them willingly, he is so happy to be a help.

If you are in the military they have a lot of classes on the base that can help with some of this. Most bases have a repair shop and you can utilize their mechanics and tools to learn about repairing your car. They offer other things so check into at the base [or post] repair/craft shop.

Work out your plans to include the jobs you expect your children to do. When things get bad, if we’re on the move our 16 year old is to keep her little brother while we move and defend if necessary. When stationary she can shoot, load and take care of first aid. She will be able to pull her own weight and then some. Our littlest one will follow suit as he grows.

Use barter to attain the skills you don’t have, watch family, use the Internet and community college. Take a vacation to Pennsylvania or Tennessee. You can learn a lot in an Amish community, I learned how to make butter and I am going back so I can learn to shear. Some teach and charge others will share what they know for free. You can also buy produce and goods from the Amish. Davy Crockett days are in August and you can watch the craftsman work and it is for the whole family. All vendors must have a "period" looking tent up and must dress in period clothing. The on site cooking is also period.

Volunteer to gain skills; veterinarian office and humane society is a good place to learn about wound care, antibiotic use and dosage, just go watch, then you will learn, most places will not turn down a volunteer. Zoos are a great place to learn about husbandry, housing and more than basic wound care, as smaller zoos take care of injuries themselves (after a vet is consulted), most of what you learn at these places about wound care can be used on humans. Colleges have book sales where you can get books on farming and some older trades/crafts very cheap (books are 1-5 dollars). Local small gun and knife shows are also a bountiful source of information [and logistics], from hard to find books to hard to find ammo.

Buy reference books! We recently went to a "Friends of the Library" book sale and spent just $12. We now have the McGraw-Hill's 20 volume set on technology ($5), doctor's desk references ("fill the box for $2"), a whole box. These included: beginner, intermediate and advanced practical chemistry, triage handbook, a nurse's reference guide, medical encyclopedias, and a diagnosis reference. We also got the EIR special report "Global Showdown Escalates", Practical Handyman from Greystone Press ($3). In many towns, you can join the Friends of the Library for $5 to $10 dollars annually, or just hit the book sales once per year. Our $12 investment filled the back seat of our car!

Even if you don’t live where your retreat is take the time to “visit” the area. Go to the local library, stop at the local shops and grab the touristy maps. In Amish communities the maps tell you about the local farms and what produce and goods they sell. They have fliers that have information on classes offered locally. The department of education has listings for adult education classes on things like welding. Introduce yourself to the locals, visit the farmers and the farmers market. Attend the church while you are there, it is the quickest way into the fold and into being welcomed by the locals. Whether you live there permanent or you will someday, you will want to be on friendly terms right away then when it all goes down.

In Tennessee when we were there, we saw newcomers (less than one year there) helping and being helped by the Amish. Neighbors coming together when they’re needed, no questions asked other than when do you need me. They all pull together and work well.

If your family isn’t ready, or is almost ready, taking these steps or some of these steps will help you get there. If you’re not “together” as a family in your preparedness then you need to find a way to be. Get the spouse interested in this even during an outing or vacation. Find a way to get your children involved. Preparing isn’t just for one person in the family, it’s for everyone. - T.D.

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Sunday March 2 2008

Letter Re: Are Simultaneous Inflation and Deflation Possible?

Hi Jim,
Your excellent post about the possibility of simultaneous inflation and deflation got my head to spinning about ways to protect ourselves from a seemingly near-certain banking crisis. Such a scenario would certainly be a major headache for everyone, no matter how large their bank accounts, but it would be a huge problem for those of us who are in business for ourselves and need a constant cash flow through the banking system to pay payroll, expenses, taxes, etc. Therefore, I wondered if you and/or any of your readers had any suggestions for preparing for banking problems ahead of time, just like we do (and have done) with other areas of life. I find that one of the greatest benefits of your blog is that almost every post stirs me mentally and spiritually, to evaluate and re-evaluate my attitudes and actions when in comes to preparedness, and to pray over them for guidance. Perhaps others have been thinking likewise, especially when it comes to the banking crisis. I'll start out with my own situation and suggestions, and hopefully others will build on them - or refute them if needed.

My situation is that our seasonal family business usually generates enough in the first 6-9 months of the year to support us for the remainder of the year. In the past, we have kept these funds liquid in our corporate bank account and used them for payroll and regular operating expenses each month as the year progresses. Now, however, I am concerned about a possible banking crises (bank runs, failures, limits on withdrawals, etc.) that is getting more press - even in the mainstream media. How can I best protect my assets, not lose what we've worked hard in the early part of the year and still have the money/cash/etc. available for use? I can vividly imagine a full-blown banking crisis like you mentioned in your article - and I shudder to realize that available funds we depend on could be "frozen" for a time (at best) or gone completely (at worst) in such a scenario.

I've thought of several options:
1. Spread the risk among several banks by opening other accounts, with each account holding a small amount of our total funds, so that if one bank fails, all our "eggs" would not break in one basket. This would be a bit cumbersome, but could work unless/until things got really bad across the board in the whole banking system.
2. Pull out more cash now and use petty cash to pay for things instead of checks and credit cards. This would be a paperwork nightmare to keep a lot of receipts and could be a security problem, but would certainly be liquid. However, would this also open us up to look like drug dealers or doing something shady?
3. Immediately purchase in bulk any items we would need for the future, prepay any bills for the year, and keep only enough money in the bank to pay large expenses. I like this idea since it would also beat inflation on basic goods we already need and use. We already have a one-year surplus of food and emergency supplies, etc., but perhaps we need more. However, this wouldn't help meet payroll, taxes, etc., unless we had to start paying our employees in toilet paper and food stuffs!
4. Buy gold and/or silver now with the funds we have. Sell the same later in the year, as the funds are needed, and when the metals (hopefully) have risen compared to the dollar. I'm not sure how feasible this idea is. Would there be any advantage at all, or would my profit get eaten up in transaction/sales fees, etc.? Also, if there were a large scale banking crisis, how do we possibly exchange our gold and silver for FRNs (or whatever the currency may be)?
I can certainly see the wisdom in having supplies positioned in advance and thus be able to "hunker down" in place or at our retreat for a time. There are so many possibilities and variables! Perhaps a combination of all of these - and more - would be best. Well, that's a start. Thanks for any light you may be able to shed on this. - Greg in North Carolina

JWR Replies: My advice is to use a combination of all of the options that you described, with the exception of option #2. In the coming years, as inflation kicks in, greenback cash will start to seem uncomfortably perishable. OBTW, I suspect that the "$10,000 in cash or equivalents" Federal tax reporting threshold will be frozen indefinitely, despite the unceasing march of inflation. Hence, more and more innocent people will come under undue scrutiny from the IRS.

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Sunday September 23 2007

Letter Re: Hawaii-Specific Disaster Preparations

Jim,

Greetings from another SurvivalBlog newbie. I discovered your site back in the spring of this year and all I could say then was “Wow! I think I’ve found a home!” I’ve been lurking here ever since. I’d been wandering in the wilderness of flame-filled newsgroups and not-quite-filling-enough survival/self-reliance publications since the days of “Survival Tomorrow”, nearly thirty years ago. Back then, I mostly spent time just collecting information on various survival topics while making only small, half-hearted preparations. At last, here is a site that has revived my slumbering interest in the disaster preparedness movement and inspired my wife my son and me to undertake concrete measures to improve our family’s Readiness Quotient (RQ) if you will. One of the first things I did was to send off a check for a 10 Cent Challenge membership (That’s right, the check is in the “snail mail”: No kidding.)

As a bit of background, I’m ex-Air Force and my wife is former Navy; we have one grown son. Like “SF” and “Hawaiian K”, I’m a resident of the islands (Oahu.) I've been here going on 40 years now, which makes me an old-timer or “Kamaaina.” My wife was born and raised here. However, our family’s situation may differ somewhat from those of the above-mentioned islanders in that we live in a townhouse development and, therefore, have limitations on what we can do in the way of emergency preparedness. (Correct me, if I’m wrong, gentlemen.) Nonetheless, we’ve not been idle.

A couple of months ago, we began our food storage program with an “extremely productive” visit to the local Costco. Our one mistake was that we loaded up on a large amount of, subsequently recalled, chili and sauce items which we must now replace. We also laid in a substantial supply of bottled water, and we also have several 6 gallon plastic water containers that were purchased several years ago, which can be filled in an emergency and stored in an available closet (they’ve come in handy during several past power outages and at least one hurricane.) We’ll continue to add to our stocks, buying a little more than we use each time we go grocery shopping. We also intend to purchase the food storage planning software you mentioned, in an earlier post. Then, we can computerize the associated record-keeping (with hardcopy backup…of course!)

Now, having food supplies is one thing; but, one also needs a way of cooking without electricity if necessary. For that, we have available that great Hawaiian standby, the outdoor grill. Currently, we rely on a large propane powered model with two tanks of fuel, but will soon back it up with a smaller, charcoal fueled grill or “Hibachi” for lesser cooking duties and to act as a substitute if propane becomes scarce or unavailable.

Our emergency lighting needs are handled with a Coleman propane lantern and several bottles of fuel, as well as several sizes of battery-powered flashlights and a more than adequate supply of batteries of all sizes. In the future, we will be reducing both the types and quantity of conventional batteries on hand and adding more rechargeables, along with both AC & solar chargers to keep them ready to go. I’ve also been checking into various types of indoor & outdoor emergency lighting, but, again, options are limited due to townhouse association rules.

Family survival transport consists of two late model SUVs for the wife and me. We’re evaluating obtaining/storing backup electronic modules for both vehicles as the conversion to an older points/condenser style ignition system is not a practical or affordable option for us. Supplemental cargo capacity is available via our son’s 1990s-vintage mid-size pickup. If the need to “bug out” arises, we’ll be able to reach relatives elsewhere on this island, or (now that a practical inter-island passenger and vehicle ferry system is about to begin operation) more remote areas of the “neighbor islands” – given enough advance warning. I hold a private pilot’s license; however, I’m not sure how much use that would be in a rapidly developing emergency situation. You can’t haul many persons and their bug-out gear in a Cessna 172, at least not if you want to go very far.

Our weakest area, at the moment, is in the realm of first-aid and medical supplies and training. I’d like to take a beginning first-aid and CPR course from our local Red Cross chapter, but considering their schedule of course offerings and my work situation, it’s going to require quite a bit of juggling; but, later in September or October looks like a good bet. Right now, we have only a few band-aids and some OTC medications on hand to deal with minor cuts and scrapes encountered around the house. Also, we need to acquire our basic health and medical library. I took a medical terminology course, but that was over twenty years ago and I haven’t had to use it in the last five years.

Speaking of libraries, our survival library is small, but growing; and, includes books by Joel Skousen, Gene Gerue (“How to Find Your Ideal Country Home”), and Ragnar Benson. We also have Internet access to several other survival and self-reliance related web-sites in addition to SurvivalBlog.com.

Home defense is one area of preparation we’re currently beefing up. We have one AR-15 rifle (one of those “mouse guns” you’re not fond of) and one .40 cal. S&W pistol with a couple of hundred rounds for each. Next up is a reliable pump-action shotgun; right now, I’m leaning toward a Remington 870. Planned additions include either an M1A or FN[-FAL]-type MBR. However, the cost of acquiring enough arms and ammo to equip each family member means that this aspect of our preparations will proceed at a slower pace.

Communications: Presently, that consists of FRS units for each family member; a CB base station – able to operate on either AC or 13.8 volt [DC] battery power - and one mobile [CB] unit in my SUV. Beside the usual emergency AM/FM/SW portable radio, we also have a trunking UHF/VHF scanner and a weather monitor with National Weather Radio/Specific Area Message Encoding (NWR/SAME) capability. All of these units have battery backup power. Our CB coverage is limited by the necessity of utilizing a low-profile base station antenna. (Again, due to townhouse association rules.) I obtained my Novice class Amateur radio license years ago, but never used it. That’s about to change as I will be upgrading to Technician and then General class within the next few months.

We are now seriously pursuing debt reduction. I will be eligible to retire from my present work as a civilian contractor for the Army in about three years. My wife also has 20 + years in Civil Service with the military. For my part, I’m not waiting for retirement, but have been preparing my resume and following job leads in addition to researching some ideas for a home-based business. Once the means of providing an income are more clearly defined, we hope to sell our Hawaii residence and relocate (as you’ve advised) to a more suitable area in the western mainland. I grew up a city kid, but with close family ties and much youthful experience in the Michigan countryside; I’m no stranger to farm life, though it has been a long time since I had to rise before dawn. My wife has a “passing” acquaintance with hard work as well, having helped to raise four younger siblings in a family of six while going to school and working in the pineapple cannery.

So, what would you say of our efforts up to this point, and what advice would you offer for the future; particularly with regards to our plans for relocation? I really enjoy my daily blog visits. I’m always anxious to see what you and your readers, especially, have to offer regarding their own disaster preparations and efforts to become more self-reliant. I urge you to continue to provide this timely and much needed service to those of us out here that have glimpsed the future and need your and your audiences’ experience and knowledge to prepare to meet it. Thank you, again, and as Michael Biehn’s character (the Colonial Space Marine corporal in “Aliens”) said, “Stay frosty.” Aloha, - Gandalf

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Wednesday September 5 2007

Letter Re: Safe Businesses in an Economic Depression?

Mr. Rawles:
I'm convinced that given the bursting of the Debt Bubble, the American economy is about to take The Big Swim, a lot like it did back in the 1930s. If this does happen, what sort of businesses will be safe? Do you know what sorts of businesses bucked the down-trend in the 1930s? Thanks, - Chester

JWR Replies: According to statistics published some 20 years ago by Dr.Ravi Batra, the safest businesses and industries during the worst years of the Great Depression (1929-1933) were:

Repair shops
Educational services (A lot of young men that couldn't find work borrowed money to go to trade schools and college.)
Healthcare services
Bicycle shops
Bus transportation
Gasoline service stations
Second hand stores
Legal services
Drug or proprietary stores

To bring that list up to date, I would speculatively add a few more sectors and business that are likely to do well in the event of another major depression:
Home security/locksmithing (since a higher crime rate is inevitable in bad economic times.)
Entertainment/diversions (such as DVD rentals)
Truck farming/large scale vegetable gardening (since just 2% of the population now feeds the other 98%--whereas back in the 1930s the US was still a predominantly agrarian society)
Export consumer goods (since the US Dollar is likely to continue to slip versus most other currencies)

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Monday July 30 2007

A Second Income--A Key Goal for Family Preparedness

I often encourage folks that are preparedness-minded to develop a second income stream. Why is this important? "Living off the land" style self sufficiently is an admirable and commendable goal. But even if you are living truly "debt free", you will still have property taxes to pay. That means that you will need at least a modest recession/depression proof revenue stream in the event that you lose your primary job. Let me underscore this point with a bit of Rawles family history: My family came out west by covered wagon in the 1850s. They soon after set up a sheep ranch that eventually had more than 6,000 deeded acres where they ran more than 3,000 Merino sheep. Sadly, more than 5,000 acres of the original Rawles Ranch was forfeited, mainly because of unpaid property taxes in the Great Depression of the 1930s. There was just no market for either wool or timber--which constituted the only cash income for the ranch. The family was easily able to feed itself, but despite their best efforts, chunk after chunk of the ranch was taken over by the county and the bankers for unpaid taxes and unpaid agricultural loans, between 1932 and 1942. By the time that the economy started to recover during World War II, the ranch was down to only about 800 acres.

Successful home-based businesses usually center around: unfilled needs. In a rural area, that is easy. Just ask your neighbors: Is there anything that you buy or rent, or service that you "hire" on a regular basis that currently requires a 40+ mile drive "to town"? Those are your potential niches.

A successful recession-proof home-based business is likely to be one where the demand for your goods and services is consistent--even in a weak economy. These include septic tank pumping, home security/locksmithing, care fore the very young and the very old, and escapist diversions such as DVD movie rentals. (It is noteworthy that the movie industry was was one of the few sectors of the economy that prospered in the 1930s.)

Another category of business that prospered in the 1930s was repair businesses. Obviously, in hard economic times, people try to make do with what they have. So repair businesses are a natural. If there is some small appliance that you could repair that could be mailed from and back to the customer, so much the better. (That way you could have a nationwide business, rather than just a local one.) This might include: DVD player repair, laptop computer repair, and so forth.


Another category is second-hand stores. People on tight budgets will be actively looking for second-hand goods, rather than buy new items. A second-hand book store in a medium-sized town might do just fine in a depression.

Yet another approach, for those with mechanical aptitude and don't mind strenuous outdoor work: Own one or more useful pieces of fairly expensive machinery that a lot of people need to rent (or hire the services of ) on a fairly regular basis, but that are expensive enough that they cannot justify buying one for themselves. Typically, this is a piece of machinery that sells for $2,000 to $20,000 that you can "hire out" in a relatively unregulated business. (Not requiring any special licenses, guild membership, or a union card.) Examples include "Ditch Witch" trenching machines, vehicle-mounted posthole augers, vehicle-mounted well drilling rigs, portable sawmills, "cherry picker:" bucket hoists, Bobcat tractors, small tracked excavators, and so forth. Once you've identified a clear unfilled need, and after you've confirmed that nobody else in your local area already has one that they presently rent out, then start looking to buy one. Ideally, you'll want one that is a few years old (since brand new machinery is usually too expensive) in nice reliable running condition, at a reasonable price. As necessary, get a trailer to transport it. Practice with it at your own property, so that you'll be competent and confident that you can do a good job. Practice loading, hauling and unloading your machinery (if needed) a few times, so that you won't look like an idiot when doing so. Be sure to get liability insurance started before you officially launch your business. Then it is simple enough to advertise your services on the Internet, through your local chamber of commerce, and post flyers at the local feed store and supermarket. You can "scale" the size of your second business (read: how busy you'll be) by setting your prices. If you want a lot of "hours", then price it low. If you are getting too much work, then just start raising your rates to slow your business down. Then, if and when you ever lose you primary income stream, you can drop your rates on your second business substantially, so that it can take up the slack for your lost income. If necessary, add a second or third piece of equipment that you can rent out, to diversify your business. (For example, your business card might read; "Exemplary Excavations: Bobcat, Mini-Excavator, Ditch Witch, and Portable Posthole Auger. Reasonable Rates!")

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Wednesday June 13 2007

SurvivalBlog Reader Poll Responses: What is Your Profession?

  • Actor
  • Machinist / Gunsmith / Aerospace engineer
  • Petroleum engineer / Alternative energy designer
  • Police sergeant / Small Arms and Tactics Instructor
  • Academic anesthesiologist / Engineer
  • Air Force Contractor
  • Airport manager
  • Alternative Energy R&D / Intelligence analyst
  • Army Officer (PSYOP)
  • Army Officer Instructor / Firearms Instructor
  • Physician assistant
  • Associate Dean
  • Attorney, Personal injury
  • Audio engineer / Compact disc mastering
  • Auto mechanic
  • Beekeeper
  • Business & PoliSci student
  • Business consultant
  • Elderly caretaker
  • Cell phone technician
  • 2 CEOs
  • CFO
  • CIO
  • COO
  • Building contractor / Mine / Butcher / Lumberjack
  • Chairman / Economist
  • Chef
  • Chief systems engineer
  • Chimney sweep (retired)
  • Christian CPA / Reserve deputy / Sunday school teacher
  • Civil Engineer / Gunsmith
  • Civil and structural engineer
  • PR practitioner / Writer-editor
  • Clinical engineer
  • Clinical nurse / college professor / herbalist
  • College student
  • Commercial construction manager / Residential builder
  • Computer hardware engineer
  • Computer systems technologist / Police officer / Machinist / Cabinetmaker / MP Investigator / Yardman / Truck Driver / Roofer / EMT
  • Corporate jet pilot
  • First aid instructor / Sound engineer
  • Criminal defense lawyer / Special ops reserve officer
  • Critical infrastructure protection specialist
  • Currency trader
  • Database administrator
  • Dental technician
  • Dentist / anthropologist
  • Deputy Sheriff-Detective / Gunsmith
  • Design engineer / electric car manufacturer
  • Desk-clerk / assistant-bookkeeper / college student
  • Diesel mechanic / fleet manager
  • Educational book designer
  • 8 Electrical/electronic engineers
  • Musician
  • Sign contractor / Military history author.
  • 3 Electricians
  • Emergency Physician / Communications
  • 4 EMTs
  • Engineer
  • Environmental, Safety, and Health Manager
  • Ex-British Special Forces / consultant
  • Family law / estate planning attorney
  • 4 Farmers (including 1 organic, 1 mushroom), many secondary farmers
  • Federal agent / investigator
  • 5 Firefighters
  • Fire captain / EMT / Fire service instructor
  • Fire Marshal
  • Fish Farmer
  • Forensic anthropologist.
  • Insurance customer service rep (retired)
  • Marine Corps sergeant (retired) / CFO
  • Forward observer / NCO.
  • Furniture maker
  • Gemologist / Jewelry appraiser
  • Government bureaucrat
  • Graduate student
  • Green housing / Construction manager
  • Hacker
  • Hedge fund manager
  • Horse farm owner
  • Hospital pharmacist
  • Hunting Guide (Alaska)
  • HVACR business owner
  • ICU RN / Die maker / Mechanic
  • Insurance agent.
  • Investment manager
  • 5 Intelligence Analysts
  • IT consultant
  • IT Telecommuter
  • Pastor
  • Jack of all trades
  • Power plant operator
  • Laboratory technician
  • Landscape architect
  • Law enforcement
  • Lean manufacturing / Automotive.
  • LEO / Tactical instructor
  • Liquor salesman
  • Logistics manager
  • Lutheran pastor
  • Machinist
  • Maintenance engineer
  • Maintenance supervisor forest service / National guard utility man
  • Sign language interpreting agency manager
  • Manager / Manufacturer / Firearms teacher / Machinist / Intelligence analyst
  • Manager of Contracts and Pricing
  • Manufacturing jeweler / watchmaker
  • Massage therapist
  • Master plumber
  • Master plumber / Carpenter / AC tech / Electrician / Mechanic
  • 5 MDs (Emergency Medicine, Anesthesia, ER, and GP)
  • Mechanic
  • Airline mechanic / ER Nurse
  • Mechanic / Rocket engine builder / Heat treater / Tax Accountant
  • Mechanical engineer
  • Medical transport / Deputy sheriff / Fireman
  • Microbiology student
  • Motion designer / Cinematographer
  • Museum director
  • 2 Navy SEALs
  • Notary public
  • 3 Novelists
  • NRA field rep
  • Nuclear work and safety planning
  • Nuclear security officer
  • Psychiatric and Primary Nurse
  • Commercial truck sales operation owner
  • Painting contractor
  • Paper engineer / graphic designer
  • Petroleum geologist
  • Petroleum landman / farm owner
  • 5 Pharmacists
  • Pharmacist / Intelligence Analyst / Health and Safety Specialist
  • Pharmacy Recruiter
  • 3 Physicists
  • 4 Pilots (including 1 Canadian military)
  • Pipefitter / Welder
  • 4 Police officers
  • College student
  • Private investigator
  • Private mailbox / Packing & shipping store / Musician
  • Production control analyst
  • Professor of ancient Near Eastern archaeology
  • Property manager / Business continuity planner
  • Property tax consultant.
  • Prototype automobile modeler
  • Internet Purchasing Specialist
  • Psychotherapist
  • Radiologic technologist
  • Real estate appraiser
  • 5 Realtors
  • Region loss prevention manager
  • Registered investment adviser owner / CPA
  • 3 Registered nurses
  • Respiratory therapist
  • Retail manager / Salesperson
  • Retail operations / Small business consultant
  • Retail store manager, retired
  • Retired electrical contractor
  • Retired policeman / Park ranger
  • Safety manager for construction company / landlord
  • 2 Sales representatives/agents
  • Sales agent
  • Security dispatcher
  • Security officer / Writer / Actor / Designer
  • Security representative
  • Electronics technician.
  • Network security engineer
  • Small business owner / barber
  • Machine operator
  • 2 Software developers
  • Software engineer
  • Special Forces Vietnam Vet / Firefighter(Retired) / Rancher
  • 2 Submariners
  • Systems engineer
  • 2 Teachers
  • Telecommunications design engineer
  • Television producer / writer
  • Power company lineman
  • Truck mechanic
  • 4 Truckers
  • U.S. Treasury bond broker
  • USDOE Security Police Officer
  • Veterinarian / Dog Breeder / Farmer
  • Veterinarian / Attorney
  • Vice President of Finance
  • Wastewater treatment plant manager / Computer consultant
  • Welder
  • Welder / Chef / Blacksmith / Martial arts instructor / Gunsmith
  • Welder, Underwater
  • Writer / Secretary

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Monday June 4 2007

SurvivalBlog Reader Poll: What is Your Profession?

I'm amazed at the wide variety of people that read SurvivalBlog. I"m starting a new poll: in seven words or less, tell us you profession, (via e-mail) and I will post an anonymous list. For any of you that are doctors, lawyers, or engineers, and so forth please state your specialty. If you have two (or more) vocations, please state the both with a slash in between. (Such as "neurosurgeon / musician.")

As standard policy, unless specifically given permission I remove people's names, titles, e-mail addresses, company names, and other identifiers from letters before I post them. Without mentioning any names, let me briefly summarize some the more notable readers that I already know about: NASA scientists, Lawrence National Laboratories physicists, pharmacists, doctors in various specialties, Hollywood actors, foundry workers, novelists, a rock-'n- roll musician, dojo masters, current and former military intelligence officers, NSA intelligence analysts, stock analysts, derivatives traders, aircraft mechanics, an astronaut, beekeepers, military and civilian pilots (lots!), submariners, an underwater welder, veterinarians--including one that is also an attorney, a prototype automobile modeler in Detroit, real estate agents, truckers, organic farmers, a mushroom farmer, two fish farmers, research chemists, an underwater photographer, U.S. Army Special Forces officers and NCOs, Navy SEALs, petroleum engineers, umpteen electrical and computer engineers, and dozens of police officers, paramedics, and firemen. I'll be interested to see what a more complete list looks like!

« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Letter Re: A Get Out of Dodge Physical Fitness Test »

Sunday May 20 2007

Letter Re: Chemistry Knowledge is One of the Keys to Survival

JWR:
I've been thinking about a recent Internet writer who argued that we aren't headed toward the 1890s [technology/infrastructure] (we should be so lucky); we're headed toward 10,000 BC! (Due to oil depletion and resultant social chaos and die-off).
Regardless of "where we land," it seems that among all the technologies at the disposal of humans, sustainable and not, chemistry is ubiquitous. Everything, or most everything we do or use involves use of chemical technology. The survival issues involving chemistry are obvious: soap, diesel fuel, disinfectants, water purification/decontamination, powder for ammo, etc, beer and wine, to name just a few.
The average guy probably doesn't need to know stoichiometric equations to derive amounts of chemicals for reactions (although that is essential if you don't have a "cookbook" telling you 1 unit of this and 2 units of that...), but it is equally obvious that a rudimentary knowledge of chemical reactions and processes will be essential when the Schumer hits, especially for the longer term TEOTWAWKI mode.
I found a couple of "survivalist applicable" books that I would highly recommend: Caveman Chemistry, and Caveman to Chemist, both sold by Amazon.com. Also, Principles of Modern Chemistry, by Oxtoby, Gillis, & Campion, is the best general Chemistry book I've seen.
It would be highly valuable to hear other forum members' recommendations of sources of chemicals and chemical engineering information. Surely, there's a lot out there if you can cut through the academic BS. - WarDoc

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Wednesday May 16 2007

Letter Re: Employment as a Gunsmith, Both Before and After TSHTF

Mr. Rawles,
I am a new reader of your blog. One of my co-workers recently told me about it and I am hooked. I never knew there was such a large gathering of like minded people. The reason for this e-mail is to ask about gunsmithing courses. Being new to your site I may not be looking in the right direction. If this is a subject that has not been covered can you or any of your readers recommend an online or correspondence course? Thank you. - Randy G.

JWR Replies: I have not yet covered this topic, so here is my input on gunsmithing training opportunities in the U.S.: Gunsmithing is indeed a valuable skill and highly recommended as either a primary or secondary source of income. Assuming that you are looking at gunsmithing as an "at home" business and you want that business to be recession proof or even depression proof, I suggest that you develop a non-decorative specialty. (Not engraving, stock carving, or bolt jeweling,.) America already has plenty of engravers. To be fully employed both before and after TSHTF, you should consider specialties like semi-auto rifle repair/customizing, or combat handgun repair/customizing.

Full length courses are available from a number of colleges including Lassen Community College (Susanville, CA), Montgomery Community College (Troy, NC), Murray State College (Tishomingo, OK), Trinidad State Junior College (Trinidad, CO), and Yavapi College (Prescott, AZ).

Some very useful instructional videos/DVDs are available from AGI. Correspondence courses are available from Modern Gun School. But I have heard that they are no substitute for hands-on instruction. The NRA offers some excellent short term hands-on courses. Also take advantage of the relatively low cost armorer's courses offered by gun makers like Springfield Armory, Colt, SIG and Glock.(For some of these you have to be a FFL dealer and already stocking their brand, or be associated with a police department that has that brand of gun as their issue weapon. One way to do that is to become a reserve police officer, and get involved as a police department armorer.)

You might also ask about apprenticing with a local gunsmith. Or if you are quite serious about gunsmithing as a life-long career, be willing to relocate to apprentice under a master gunsmith in the specialty of your choice. The best ones will want to train only someone that has a few years of basic gunsmithing experience, proven aptitude, and a real burning desire to excel at gunsmithing.

I don't generally recommend military training as an armorer. The U.S. Army formerly had a separate "armorer" specialty, but that is now part of the 92Y (Unit Supply Specialist) military occupational specialty (MOS). Sadly, there is not much a gunsmithing "craft": taught to 92Ys anymore--no offense, but in essence they've been reduced to just parts orderers and parts changers. For anyone that is already in the Army (active duty, reserve, or National Guard) there is a CD training set available from Tobyhanna Army Depot for the small arms portions of the 92Y advanced individual training (AIT) course. The applicable CDs are: CD 101-75 through 101-84. It might be useful to pick up 92Y as a secondary MOS.

As a starting point, I recommend that you start assembling your own gunsmithing library. For example, get every gun assembly/disassembly manual (such as the J.B. Wood's multi-volume series) that you can lay your hands on. Used copies are often available at low prices through eBay or Amazon.com. I also recommend that you get a set of Jerry Kuhnhausen's "Shop Manual" gunsmithing books. They are excellent.

You will of course also need to start assembling a set of gunsmithing tools. One of the best sources for tools is Brownell's. The rudimentary basics to start gunsmithing would be: a full set of good quality hollow ground screwdrivers (I especially like the Chapman's brand sets), a set of pin punches, a brass/plastic head hammer, wire cutters, a set of Swiss pattern files, a set of larger files of various profiles, a set of stones, some cold bluing solution, a roll pin assortment, and some coil spring stock.

« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Poll Results: An Exercise in Humility--a Poll on Embarrassing Mistakes »

Monday April 16 2007

Letter Re: Advice on Where to Learn Practical, Tactical Skills

Dear Jim:
As my confidence in the dollar depreciates and my desire for skills increases, I'm wanting to convert FRNs into hands-on knowledge. What weeknight or weekend workshops would you recommend? Are there any places where you can learn Army Ranger skills without joining the military? Animal husbandry, and so on? - Spencer

JWR Replies: There is a tremendous wealth of free or low-cost classes available--enough to keep you busy every weekend of the year if you are willing to drive a distance. If you have time and just a bit of money, you can get some very well-rounded training in skills that are quite applicable to post-TEOTWAWKI living. In my experience, the most cost-effective training opportunities in the U.S. include:

American Red Cross First Aid and CPR classes

Local Community College, Park District, and Adult Education classes. They offer classes on metal shop, auto shop, wood shop, leather crafting, ceramics, baking, gardening, welding, and so forth.

RWVA Appleseed Shoots. These are held all over the nation. They offer great training for very little money. The West Side Sportsman's Club, located on the west side of Evansville, Indiana is hosting the national RWVA shoot on June 30 / July 1st. The Red Brush Gun Range, located on the east side of Evansville is having another Appleseed, and they're also having an Appleseed Boot Camp. The boot camp starts on Monday October 22 thru Friday Oct. 26th. Then the Appleseed Shoot is on Saturday Oct. 27 and Sunday Oct. 28. The deal is if you want to attend both the Boot Camp and the Appleseed match, you do so for $200. Yes, for just $200 you can have seven days of top notch marksmanship training.

U.S. Army ROTC classes, the ROTC Ranger program (administered by individual university ROTC Departments), and ROTC Leader's Training Course, aka Basic Camp). The first two years of the ROTC program--including Leader's Training Course--are available to any full-time enrolled undergraduate college student (including "cross-enrolled" junior college students) with no contractual obligation. Participation in the ROTC Ranger program by anyone other than enrolled ROTC cadets is usually up to the discretion of the instructor or the PMS. When I was in a ROTC Ranger program back in the early 1980s, we had two Marine Corps PLC students and an Administration of Justice (police science) major in our Ranger program, as supernumeraries. So even if you don't sign up for ROTC classes, you might be able to be involved in a Ranger program. Of particular note: If you sign up for the four week ROTC Leader's Training Course at Fort Knox, Kentucky, you will actually get paid to attend, plus get a couple of free pairs of combat boots. To be eligible to participate in ROTC, you must be under 31 years of age on Dec 31 st of the year that you expect to graduate. (Or possibly 34 years old, with waivers.) The best chance to get a slot at the ROTC Leader's Training Course is during your sophomore year of college, but when I was there I met a graduate student that had wangled a slot. (He eventually got a direct commission, by virtue of his ROTC "contact hours")

LDS (Mormon) cannery classes/canning sessions. Many "wards" have their own canneries, which are generally open to non-Mormons. (OBTW, the LDS food storage calculator web page is a very useful planning tool.)

FEMA / CERT Classes (Classroom and Internet courses, some with team commitment)

ARRL amateur radio classes.

Species-Specific or Breed-Specific Livestock and Pet Clubs

NRA and State Rifle and Pistol Association training and shooting events

Fiber Guilds (spinning and weaving) and local knitting clubs

Mountain Man/Rendezvous Clubs (Blackpowder shooting, flint knapping, soap making, rope making, etc.)

University/County Agricultural Extension and Cattleman's Club classes on livestock, gardening, weed control, canning, et cetera

Medical Corps small group classes. I heard that they have scheduled just one hands-on Combat/Field Medicine Course thusfar for 2007. It will be at the OSU Extension Campus, in Belle Valley Ohio, April 20-21-22. That class is full, but check their web site for additional course dates. They offer great training--including advanced life saving topics that the American Red Cross doesn't teach--at very reasonable cost.

Volunteer Fire department (VFD) classes (usually with some commitment)

Candle and Soap Making Clubs/Conventions

Boy Scouts and 4H. Informal, un-enrolled ("strap hanger") training is available for adults--just take your kids to the meetings and don't leave.

I would also consider these less important (but still worthwhile) training opportunities, as time permits:

Sheriff's posse and Search and Rescue (SAR) programs

Police department "Ride Along" and Police Reserve programs

Civil Air Patrol (CAP) courses.

Civic/Ethnic Club cooking classes

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Friday March 9 2007

Letter Re: Restoring Older Shortwave Receivers

James:
A note on the Zenith Trans-Oceanic [tube-type general coverage receiver]s: I've been collecting these and refurbishing them on bad weather days. I replace all the paper and electrolytic capacitors, check the tubes, clean them up, and tune up the coil tower with an old tube RF signal generator. The paper capacitors are very prone to failure. Then I construct a replacement battery pack using ten 9 V batteries and 5 "D" cells. I plan to make a 12 VDC charger for these that I can run off my PV panels. So far I've done nine of these. I am putting them along with instruction manual, schematics, battery pack into Space Bags with a desiccant pack and storing them. I figure these will be more valuable with time. Now: the special high frequency pentagrid converter tube for these, the 1L6, is getting really scarce. I'm buying all I can on eBay if the price is right. There is a US Army manual of Korean War vintage with complete instructions on repair. There is an interesting variant of these, sold for only one year, the "Meridian" that is a general coverage shortwave receiver with the same tube set. These are rare as hen's teeth. I'm refurbing my second right now. Next one I see on eBay, I'm getting it. Regards, - Doc Holladay

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Tuesday March 6 2007

Letter Re: The "Third Way" Approach--A Forward Base En Route to a Remote Survival Retreat

JWR,
I have been reading a longtime reader of your blog since it started, and wish to thank you for writing your novel "Patriots", which I have read cover to cover many times and has helped me on my way to becoming a prepper.
In response to Paul's letter for a forward location between your retreat and current home I have some ideas as well as some other good info I feel your readers could benefit from.
Now the plan of having a forward location by Paul is a somewhat good idea but like you pointed out a bit flawed.My idea may not bode well for everyone, I really think a bachelor or a family that is really into being prepared will only live this way: What you do is if you must work close to or in a city because of your job, family or other obligations I suggest you either buy a small condo/apartment or rent one. Depending on how close you are to the city/town you may find the prices can be cheap (further away) or quite expensive (closer). Not all of us can have the luxury of living at our retreat full time or having some kind of caretaker thee watching it for us.
So what you should do is simply have two locations. One location near your job, nothing fancy but a small condo/apartment like I described above should fit the bill. All you would really need are some minor supplies and your everyday use items at this location. No need to really stock it to the gills, at least have some items there in case travel is restricted, you cant leave for whatever reason, or worst case scenario you get to your retreat and its stripped. The other location of course your fully stocked retreat, in which I would go to great lengths to meet any friendly neighbors and give them your contact info (a disposable or regular cell phone) just in case something happens while your away.
The whole idea is to simply treat the city home like a in between location. Like I said this wont bode well for many people who are used to amenities, and it certainly may not work for those with non like minded people living in their immediate family. But for a single person or a family who is on board I think it could work. Perhaps in between the city location and the retreat you could have a friend and store supplies their or rent a storage unit for a year or more in advance. I know there are many storage rental places around these days as they are quite popular and you can not only rent a simple garage setup but heated units for sensitive items, closed sized units and units of all shapes and sizes. This means not only can you be sure that in the event you cant make it your retreat or you make it there and have no supplies that you have back up supplies and stuff.
You could even have a travel trailer located at either your city home or the rented storage unit so there is no real loading-just hitch it up and go. A word on proper transportation: many people do not have an SUV or at least a truck to haul this stuff with, I highly recommend you pick up in the very least an older pickup of some kind. I would recommend personally if you don't need a lot of space or have a smaller trailer an older Toyota with either the 4cyl 22R(E) engines, the newer 4cyl engines or a 3.4L V6 model. Run away from the 3.0L V6 they once offer